15* Memphis/Gonzaga ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +18

With a No. 3 national ranking and a 21-1 record, the Gonzaga Bulldogs are certainly one of the biggest public teams in the country.  They have a reputation from year's past as well that just has the betting public backing them every chance they get.  That means they have expectations to live up to, and sometimes those expectations are out of reach in terms of the point spread.

That has shown up here in recent games for the Bulldogs as they are just 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  They beat Santa Clara by 22 as 24.5-point favorites, Pepperdine by 2 as 12-point favorites, Loyola-Marymount by 17 as 19.5-point favorites, and Portland by 18 as 21-point favorites in their four most recent non-covers.

Memphis (13-7) has the athleticism to match Gonzaga in this one.  The Tigers come in playing their best basketball of the season having won five of their last six.  They have also won 10 of their last 13 games overall.  Four of their last five victories have come by double-digits with impressive wins over Cincinnati (by 13), UCF (by 20), Houston (by 18) and East Carolina (by 12).

Memphis is 6-1 straight up in its last seven meetings with Gonzaga dating back to 2005.  These teams met up last year with Memphis winning 60-54 as 4.5-point home favorites.  Now, they are 18-point road underdogs a year later?  There's clearly some value here folks based on that fact alone.  Also, keep in mind that Gonzaga is playing on one days' rest after beating Portland on Thursday, while Memphis comes in on two days' rest after playing on Wednesday.

Memphis is 7-0 ATS vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 28-9 ATS versus very good defensive teams that allow 39% or less shooting after 15-plus games since 1997.  Memphis is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as a road underdog of 10 or more points.  Gonzaga is 0-7 ATS after three straight wins by 15 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games following a ATS loss.  Take Memphis Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs -5

The San Antonio Spurs are finally healthy and playing like the defending champions that they are as a result.  The Spurs have won seven of their last eight games overall with all seven of those victories coming by 5 points or more, including five by 9 or more.

The defending champs certainly come into this game well-rested and ready to go.  They have had two days' rest since last playing Charlotte on Wednesday.  This will also be just their 2nd game in the past 6 days.

The same cannot be said for the Clippers, who are a very tired team right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight.  They lost a 103-108 heartbreaker to the Pelicans last night despite being 8-point favorites as they started to show signs of wearing down.  They have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three.  They only beat the Nuggets by 4 as 14-point favorites and the Jazz by 5 as 6.5-point favorites.

San Antonio simply has Los Angeles' number.  The Spurs have won four straight and six of their last seven meetings with the Clippers.  Three of those victories came by double-digits as well.  They beat the Clippers 125-118 as 1-point home favorites in their last meeting despite playing without Khawi Leonard, who is back healthy now.

The Clippers are 12-25 ATS in their last 37 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Los Angeles is 0-6 ATS in its last six games when playing on 0 days' rest.  The Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last five Saturday games.  Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings, and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 visits to San Antonio.  Bet the Spurs Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +17

The Atlanta Hawks could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They are currently riding an 18-game winning streak that saw them cover an NBA-record 15 straight games to start the streak.

Finally, the odds have caught up to them.  The Hawks have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three games during the streak.  They only won by 12 as 17.5-point favorites over Minnesota, by 11 as 14-point favorites over Brooklyn, and by 6 as 6.5-point favorites over Portland.

Now, the Hawks will find it extremely difficult to get motivated to play the lowly Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  That's especially the case considering they recently beat the 76ers by 18 during this winning streak.  I look for them to come out flat off that big win over Portland last night, and to not bring the kind of effort it will take to put away Philadelphia by 17-plus points.

The 76ers come into this game playing some of their best basketball of the season.  They have won each of their last two games outright as underdogs.  They beat the Pistons 89-69 as 8-point home underdogs on January 28th, and then came back with a 103-94 upset win over the Timberwolves as 4-point dogs last night.

Philadelphia hasn't lost by more than 16 points in Atlanta in any of the last eight meetings.  It has won three games outright as underdogs in those eight meetings.  The five losses came by 16, 8, 10, 11 and 5 points.  I look for the 76ers to hang tough again Saturday.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (PHILADELPHIA) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, on Saturday games are 44-20 (68.8%) ATS since 1996.  Atlanta is 24-42 ATS in its last 66 home games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% or worse.  The 76ers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 0 days rest.  The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take the 76ers Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards -3

This is a very tough spot for the Toronto Raptors and a great one for the Washington Wizards.  I'll lay the small number on the home favorite Wizards because of it tonight.

Toronto comes in overvalued as it is due to having won five straight, but all five of those wins came against Philadelphia, Deetroit, Indiana, Sacramento and Brooklyn, all of which currently have losing records.  Three of those victories came by 5 points or less.

The reason this is a tough spot for the Raptors is because they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.  Making matters worse is the fact that they played an overtime game last night against the Nets.  Kyle Lowry played 44 minutes and DeMar DeRozan played 41.  The Raptors could be without starting center Jonas Valanciunas, who suffered an ankle injury against Brooklyn and is questionable.

Washington comes in undervalued after failing to cover the spread in each of its last five games overall.  Well, four of those games were on the road, and all five were against Western Conference teams.  It was also a 4 games in 5 days stretch.  Now, the Wizards come in refreshed and ready to go after having two days' rest since last playing on Wednesday.  They will clearly bring more energy to the court tonight.

Washington is 18-6 at home this season.  Toronto is 22-40 ATS in its last 62 games following four or more consecutive wins.  The Raptors are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Toronto is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games overall.  The Wizards are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with the Wizards Saturday.

15* Alabama/Kentucky SEC Saturday No-Brainer on Alabama +19

As the No. 1 team in the country, the Kentucky Wildcats are forced to lay big numbers often.  The betting public is all over this unbeaten team, and the Wildcats have now created expectations for themselves that they simply cannot live up to.

They have gone just 3-4 ATS in their last seven games overall.  That includes a 3-point win over Ole Miss as 23-point favorites, a 6-point win over Texas A&M as 14.5-point favorites, an 8-point win over Vanderbilt as 21.5-point favorites, and a 16-point win over Missouri as 17.5-point favorites.

Alabama (13-7), on the other hand, comes into this game undervalued due to having lost four of its last five games overall.  Well, four of those five games were remarkably decided by exactly 2 points, and the Crimson Tide came out on the short end of the stick in three of those.

I have no doubt that Alabama is one of the most improved teams in the country this season, and one that is fully capable of hanging with Kentucky today.  The Crimson Tide have seen six of their seven losses come by 13 points or less, including four of those by 2 points or fewer.

The lone exception was a 48-70 home loss to Kentucky as 9.5-point underdogs.  While that loss was concerning, the Crimson Tide will be out for revenge here.  I don't expect the Wildcats to be all that motivated for this game after already beating Alabama by 22 in their first meeting.  The Wildcats won't bring the kind of effort and focus it takes to put away the Crimson Tide by 19-plus points in the rematch.

Alabama is 7-0 ATS when revenging a same-season loss vs. opponent over the last three seasons.  The Crimson Tide are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games following a home loss.  Alabama is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games as an underdog of 12.5 or more points.  The Crimson Tide are 13-2 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last three seasons.  Also, Alabama comes into this game on three days' rest, while Kentucky comes in on just one day of rest after playing Missouri on Thursday.

That 22-point loss was the exception, not the rule in this series.  Alabama is 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Kentucky.  In fact, 22 of the last 23 meetings in this series have been decided by 17 points or less.  In fact, 20 of those 23 meetings were decided by 12 points or fewer.  This makes for a 22-1 system backing the Crimson Tide pertaining to this 19-point spread today.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

20* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Iowa +2.5

I look at Wichita State (19-2) and Northern Iowa (19-2) as pretty much equals.  I also believe the Panthers have a real shot of winning the Missouri Valley this year, but they cannot afford to lose to the Shockers at home if they want to do so.  Wichita State has a great reputation due to its Final Four run, but that's the only reason it is favored here when it shouldn't be.

Northern Iowa is a perfect 10-0 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 11.6 points per game.  Its only two losses this season came on the road to VCU (87-93, OT) and Evansville (49-52).  This is an experienced team that returned all five starters from last year, and one that will want revenge after losing both meetings with the Shockers last season.

Wichita State has been vulnerable this season.  It has losses to both Utah and George Washington, and it also has narrow victories over Hawaii (80-79) and Alabama (53-52).  Six of its wins have come by single-digits this season.  The Shockers just aren't as dominant as they were a year ago, and they will prove to be beatable against their top contenders today.

Plays against any team (WICHITA ST) - red hot team - having won 18 or more of their last 20 games, playing their 3rd game in a week are 71-38 (65.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Shockers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Panthers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina -3

The South Carolina Gamecocks could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They have lost six of their last seven games overall while going 0-7 ATS in the process.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them right now, which is why they are showing such great value as only 3-point home favorites over Georgia.

A closer look at this rough patch shows that the Gamecocks have suffered several narrow defeats.  Indeed, four of their six losses during this stretch came by 6 points or less, while the other two came to Kentucky at home and Ole Miss on the road.  They have simply been on the short end of the stick in close games, but I look for that to change today.

Georgia could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now due to going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  Three of its wins have come at home during this stretch, while the other two were narrow road victories over SEC bottom feeders Vanderbilt (70-67) and Mississippi State (72-66).

The Bulldogs are going to be short-handed today as they are expected to be without their leading scorer (13.5 ppg) and rebounder (7.3 rpg), Marcus Thornton.  This guy is a beast inside and shoots 50.5% from the field.  Thornton has played every game up to this point, but now he'll miss his first game of the season due to a concussion.  That's a huge loss for the Bulldogs, and one that I don't believe they'll be able to overcome.

Plays on a favorite (S CAROLINA) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games against opponent after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games are 76-37 (67.3%) ATS since 1997.  This trend just goes to show there is value in backing teams on poor ATS streaks against teams on great ATS streaks.  Take South Carolina Saturday.

15* UNC/Louisville ESPN Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -5

The No. 10 Louisville Cardinals (17-3) are going to be out for revenge against the No. 13 North Carolina Tar Heels (17-4) today.  They lost a heartbreaker to the Tar Heels 71-72 on the road in their first meeting of 2014-15 on January 15th.  Look for them to have their revenge in blowout fashion at home this time around.

Louisville is 11-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 17.4 points per game.  Its only two home losses came to two of the best teams in the country in Kentucky and Duke.

Outside of a road loss to Kentucky by 14 points, the Tar Heels have played an extremely soft road schedule this season.  Their other four true road games came against UNC-Greensboro, Clemson, NC State and Wake Forest.  This will easily be their second-toughest road game of the season, and I look for them to struggle like they did against the Wildcats.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LOUISVILLE) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams (winning at least 80%) are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS since 1997.  North Carolina is 0-6 ATS in road games versus very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. Rick Pitino is 37-19 ATS revenging a road loss as the coach of Louisville.  The Tar Heels are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. ACC foes.

The Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last two seasons.  North Carolina is 0-7 ATS after a combined score of 165 points or more over the last two years.  UNC is 1-8 ATS after a game where it made 50% or more of its 3-point shots over the last three seasons.  These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing the Cardinals.  Roll with Louisville Saturday.

15* Bulls/Suns ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Phoenix -5.5

The Phoenix Suns look to cap off a record eight-game home stand with one final victory Friday night.  They have gone 5-2 through the first seven games of this home stand, and they have won 15 of their last 21 games overall.  This team continues to go under the radar as one of the better teams in the NBA that gets no respect.

I like their chances of getting a victory tonight by 6-plus points against a tired Chicago Bulls team that will just have nothing left in the tank.  The Bulls will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.

Making matters worse for Chicago is that it has played back-to-back overtime games, including a double-OT loss to the lowly Lakers 118-123 last night.  Jimmy Butler played 49 minutes, Derrick Rose played 42, Joakim Noah played 42, and Paul Gasol played 44.  Now, Butler is questionable to play tonight due to a knee injury suffered against the Lakers.

Phoenix is a bad team for Chicago to have to play tonight when fatigued.  That's because the Suns play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA.  Indeed, they rank 2nd in the league in pace at 99.2 possessions per game.  They also rank 6th in offensive efficiency, scoring 107.1 points per 100 possessions.  They average 107.3 points per game this year.

The Suns are averaging 112.8 points on 49.2 percent shooting while winning eight of their last 10 at home.  With the Super Bowl being played in nearby Glendale, the Suns should have a great crowd for this game tonight and a huge home-court advantage.

The Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Chicago is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games overall.  The Bulls are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day.  The Suns are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Take the Suns Friday.

20* NBA Line Mistake GAME OF THE MONTH on Portland Trail Blazers +7

The Atlanta Hawks are way overvalued right now due to their franchise-record 17-game winning streak coming into this game.  The Blazers could not be more undervalued right now due to losing six of their last eight games overall.  This is the perfect storm that has created a ton of line value for us to back the Blazers as 7-point road dogs.

Portland (32-14) is still one of the best teams in the NBA despite this recent poor stretch.  It's not like the Blazers are getting blown out, either.  Five of their last six losses have come by 6 points or less.  They have simply been on the wrong end of all their close games here of late, and they have played some stiff competition as well as five of the losses have come to the Clippers, Spurs, Grizzlies, Suns and Cavs.

After covering an NBA-record 15 straight games, the evidence of the Hawks being overvalued has shown in their last two.  They only beat the Timberwolves by 12 as 17.5-point favorites and the Nets by 11 as 14-point favorites, failing to cover the spread in each.  Now, they take a big step up in competition against the Blazers.

I look at this as a letdown spot for Atlanta.  Yesterday, it had three players voted into the All-Star Game in Jeff Teague, Paul Millsap and Al Horford.  While all three are deserving on a 38-8 squad that is in first place in the East, I can see it working against them tonight.  Getting three All-Stars gives the Hawks a sense of validity, or that their job has been done.  I look for them to take their foot off the gas tonight, while getting a monster effort from the motivated Blazers.

Atlanta is 1-13 ATS in home games off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last three seasons.  It is actually getting outscored by an average of 4.6 points per game in this spot.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Bet the Blazers Friday.

15* Nuggets/Grizzlies TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Denver +10.5

There's no question that the Denver Nuggets are in a tough spot here physically.  This will be their 4th game in 5 days after beating the New Orleans Pelicans last night on the road.  However, I believe the oddsmakers have over-adjusted for this tough spot for the Nuggets, and there's clearly value in backing them as double-digit underdogs to the Memphis Grizzlies.

Denver has been extremely competitive over the past month despite having lost seven straight prior to its win over the Pelicans last night.  In fact, the Nuggets have only lost once by more than 10 points in their last 15 games overall.  That was a road loss to the Golden State Warriors, who are the best team in the NBA up to this point.  That's also a 14-1 system backing the Nuggets pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.

Memphis is getting a lot of love from oddsmakers due to having won four straight and eight of its last nine games overall.  It is coming off a shocking 109-90 upset win at Dallas last time out, which is only adding to the inflation of this line.  This could be a potential letdown spot for the Grizzlies off that big win and with Oklahoma City on deck.

Denver has played Memphis extremely tough in recent years.  It beat Memphis 114-85 at home in its first and only meeting of 2014-15 on January 3rd.  The Nuggets have won five of their last nine meetings with the Grizzlies outright while going 6-3 ATS.  In fact, in the last 26 meetings, the Nuggets have lost to the Grizzlies by more than 10 points only once.  That's a 25-1 system backing the Nuggets pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.

Plays against home teams (MEMPHIS) - revenging a loss vs opponent, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Memphis is 14-31 ATS in its last 45 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  The Grizzlies could be without two starters in PG Mike Conley and SG Tony Allen tonight, who are both listed as questionable after sitting out last game.  Take the Nuggets Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on North Dakota State -6

The North Dakota State Bison have made some noise in the NCAA Tournament in recent years.  This is one of those under-the-radar teams that regularly finds itself in the Big Dance because it takes care of business in conference play and in the conference tournament.

The Bison have taken a bit of a step back this year, but they are still 13-7 and played a pretty difficult non-conference schedule, opening with Texas and Iowa on the road.  That has prepared them well for conference play, where they have gone 5-2 with impressive wins over top contenders Oral Roberts and South Dakota State.

What really stood out to me looking into this game was the home/road records of both teams.  North Dakota State is a perfect 9-0 straight up and 5-0 ATS in home games this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 12.0 points per game.  Denver is 1-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in road games, getting outscored by an average of 10.3 points per game.

The Pioneers have had one of the best home-court advantages in all of college basketball through the years, but they have been atrocious on the road, and that has continued this season.  Now, they may be without second-leading scorer Cam Griffin (12.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg), who has missed the past two games due to suspension.  Even if Griffin plays I look for NDSU to cover, but it would be an added bonus if he doesn't.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series in recent years.  The home team has gone a perfect 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings.  North Dakota State has won each of its last four home meetings with Denver by 10 or more points.  I can't stress enough how big home-court advantage for both of these teams.

Denver is 0-6 ATS after having won two of its last three games this season.  Joe Scott is 26-45 ATS as a road underdog or pick 'em as the coach of Denver.  Scott is 1-13 ATS after a game where they were called for 27 or more fouls as the coach of Denver.  The Pioneers are 12-39-1 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Bison are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Roll with North Dakota State Thursday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +4.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are certainly one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 23-22 overall and a ridiculous 30-14-1 ATS in 45 games.  While there was value in backing them during the first half of the year, that value has all been zapped up now.  Milwaukee has no business being the favorite on the road to the Orlando Magic tonight.

While the Bucks come into this game getting a ton of love from the betting public, the Magic are getting none.  That's because they have lost six straight and 12 of their last 14 games overall coming in.  They have at least been competitive during this stretch as five of their last six losses have come by 10 points or less.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Milwaukee and Orlando.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 9-0 straight up in the last nine meetings.  In fact, Orlando is 17-0 straight up in its last 17 home meetings with Milwaukee dating back to 2005.  If that's not great evidence as to why you should back the Magic, then I don't know what is.

Orlando is 10-1 ATS in home games after having lost 12 or more of its last 15 games over the past two seasons.  The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last six visits to Orlando.  The Magic beat the Bucks 101-85 at home in their lone meeting of 2014-15.  Bet the Magic Thursday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +13.5

In a game between in-state rivals Mississippi State and Ole Miss tonight, I'll gladly side with the underdog in this contest.  The Bulldogs are showing solid value as 13.5-point road dogs to the Rebels, especially with the way they have been playing of late.

While Mississippi State is just 9-10 this season, it is playing much better than its record would indicate.  The Bulldogs are 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost at Texas A&M 70-74 as 10-point road dogs, beat Vanderbilt 57-54 as 4-point home dogs, beat Auburn 78-71 as 7-point road dogs, and lost to Georgia 66-72 as 5-point home dogs in their last four games, respectively.

Ole Miss is in a massive letdown spot here.  The Rebels are coming off a 72-71 home win over Florida last time out for a rare win over the Gators.  They have actually exchanged wins and losses in each of their last nine games overall.  They are 0-4 straight up in their last four games following a win.

Mississippi State is an experienced team that brought five starters back from last season.  It lost its final two meetings of the season to Ole Miss, including in the SEC Tournament.  These players will be out for revenge from those two losses as they have not forgotten.

Ole Miss is 3-11 ATS off a home win against a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  Mississippi State is 51-31 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games since 1997.  While the Bulldogs are just 2-6 away from home this season, they're actually only getting outscored by an average of 2.9 points per game on the road.  Bet Mississippi State Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +9

The New York Knicks could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  At 8-37 on the season, they are tied with the Philadelphia 76ers for the worst record in the Eastern Conference.  There's no question in my mind that the Knicks are much better than their record would indicate.

New York simply lost a ton of close games in the first half of the season, and had some key injuries to boot.  Well, this team is starting to get healthy, and the results have been much better here of late.  Carmelo Anthony is back in the fold now, and they are getting some key contributions from players they recently signed like Langston Galloway (12.1 ppg in 8 games) and Lance Thomas (9.8 ppg in five games).

The Knicks are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat New Orleans 99-92 as 4-point home dogs, Philadelphia 98-91 as 3-point road favorites, and Orlando 113-106 as 3-point home dogs.  Their only loss came at Charlotte 71-76 as 9-point road dogs in a game where Carmelo Anthony sat out since it was the second of a back-to-back.

Anthony returns to the lineup tonight and makes all the difference for this team when he's in there.  Plus, the Knicks come in well-rested and ready to go as they have had a whopping three days' rest since last playing Charlotte on Saturday.  There's no question they will the be the fresher, more prepared team.

Oklahoma City is a tired squad right now, and it's starting to show in its play.  The Thunder will be playing their 6th game in 9 days tonight.  They are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost at Atlanta 93-103, at Cleveland 98-108, and only beat lowly Minnesota 92-84 as 13-point home favorites during this stretch.

Kevin Durant did sit out against the Timberwolves due to a sore toe as he was a late scratch in that game.  Well, Durant isn't expected to play tonight either, and there's no way the Thunder should be this heavily favored on the road without him.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

The Thunder are just 10-15 SU & 8-16-1 ATS on the road this season.  OKC is 4-13 ATS in road games vs. teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  The Thunder are 4-12 ATS versus good ball handling teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this year.  The Thunder are 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 road games.  The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to New York.  Bet the Knicks Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +7

The Toronto Raptors certainly overachieved in the first third of the season.  They opened 24-7 and were in first place in the Eastern Conference.  As expected, they weren't able to keep up the torrid pace they were on, and they have been overvalued ever since.

Indeed, the Raptors are just 6-8 straight up and 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Their six wins during this stretch came against Philadelphia (twice), Boston, Milwaukee, Detroit and Indiana.  Only Milwaukee (23-22) has a winning record, while the other four teams are all at least 11 games below .500.

Yes, the Sacramento Kings do not have a very good record at all at 16-27, but they also play in the stacked Western Conference.  They would be a playoff contender if they played in the East.  They have gone 4-2 SU in their last six meetings with the Raptors, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

The main reason I'm on the Kings tonight is the rest factor.  The Kings come into this game on four days' rest, so they will be ready to go following a long layoff.  They will also be motivated for a win after dropping six straight coming in with five of those coming against teams that would be in the playoffs if the season were to end today.  Four of those losses came by single-digits, and three by 4 points or less.

Toronto is in a terrible situation compared to Sacramento in the rest department.  The Raptors will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, which is a very difficult spot in the NBA.  I just don't believe they are going to be able to match the effort they get from the Kings tonight because of it.

Plays on road teams (SACRAMENTO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more two straight games are 85-45 (65.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.  The Raptors are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five vs. Western Conference foes.  Roll with the Kings Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +17

The Texas Tech Red Raiders could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They opened 0-6 in Big 12 play and were rarely competitive.  However, they finally showed what they were capable of last time out against one of the best teams in the country.

Indeed, the Red Raiders beat Iowa State 78-73 as 10-point home underdogs on Saturday.  They controlled that game from start to finish as it was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  Despite that win, they are still getting no love from the betting public or the oddsmakers as they are 17-point road underdogs tonight at Oklahoma.

The Sooners have really been struggling in Big 12 play.  They are just 3-4 within the conference, losing four of their last five games overall.  That includes blowout losses to West Virginia (65-86) and Baylor (58-69).  While they will be motivated to bounce back, the fact of the matter is that they are simply laying too many points tonight.

The road team has actually won three straight meetings in this series, including a 68-60 upset win by Texas Tech as 8.5-point underdogs last season.  In fact, Texas Tech has not lost by more than 15 points to Oklahoma in 10 of the last 11 meetings in this series, making for a 10-1 system backing the Red Raiders.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (OKLAHOMA) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games are 57-24 (70.4%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with Texas Tech Wednesday.

20* Blazers/Cavaliers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Portland +6

The Portland Trail Blazers (32-13) got some tremendous news when LaMarcus Aldridge announced he wasn't going to have surgery on his hand.  In his first game back from injury, he posted 26 points and nine rebounds in a win over the Wizards on Saturday.  At 32-13, he knows how important it is for the Blazers to to try and get a top-four seed in the West.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are rolling right now, going 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  However, with this winning streak comes expectations from oddsmakers that the Cavaliers cannot live up to.  I still don't believe they are as good as the top teams in the West, like Portland.

This is a terrible spot for Cleveland and a great one for Portland.  The Cavaliers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days off a 103-95 win at Detroit last night.  Kyrie Irving played 42 minutes, Lebron James played 36 minutes, and Kevin Love played 32 minutes.  Irving will have to chase around Damian Lillard for four quarters, too, which is a tough task to ask.

It's going to be very hard for the Cavaliers to come back with a great effort tonight given the situation.  They certainly won't be able to match the energy level of the Blazers, who come in on three days' rest after last playing on Saturday.  Plus, the Blazers will be highly motivated after having lost five of their last seven games overall.  Four of those five losses came by 6 points or less.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Blazers are 7-1 straight up in their last eight meetings with the Cavs, including a 101-82 home win over Cleveland in their first meeting of 2014-15.  Take the Blazers Wednesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Fordham +9

The Fordham Rams host on the Rhode Island Rams tonight in Atlantic 10 action.  The home squad is showing excellent value in this contest as 9-point home underdogs to Rhode Island, and we'll take advantage.

Fordham has played a gauntlet of a schedule of late, which is why it has lost six straight coming in.  It has been at least a 9-point underdog in its six straight losses to VCU, Rhode Island, Dayton, St. Josephs, LaSalle and George Washington.

The best game Fordham played during that stretch actually came in a 65-68 road loss at Rhode Island as 15-point underdogs.  After playing Rhode Island tough on the road, I look for Fordham to also play them tough at home this time around as they will be out for revenge.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Rhode Island and Fordham.  Indeed, the home team is 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings dating back to 2012.  Fordham has won each of its last three home meetings with Rhode Island, pulling off two upsets as underdogs in the process.

Fordham will have a decisive edge in rest and preparation as well.  It has has five days off in between games, while Rhode Island has only had two days off in between games.  After playing such a gauntlet of a schedule, this extra rest came at the perfect time for Fordham.  Look for it to play one of its best games of the season tonight.

Rhode Island has a key injury in play here.  Star guard E.C. Matthews, who leads the team in scoring (17.0 ppg), missed their last game against St. Bonaventure on Sunday with a knee injury.  Matthews is questionable to return tonight.  I like Fordham either way, and it would just be an added bonus if Matthews is unable to go.

Rhode Island is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  Rhode Island is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win.  Fordham is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Fordham Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -3

The Marquette Golden Eagles have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  Despite being just 10-9 on the season, they continually don't get the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  That is evident by their 12-7 ATS record this season, and they are undervalued again tonight as only 3-point home favorites over Seton Hall.

The Seton Hall Pirates got off to a great start this season, but then they jumped into the Top 25, and reality has sank in ever since. The Pirates are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost at Xavier 58-69, at home against Butler 75-79, at home against DePaul 60-64, and at Butler 57-77.  Their lone win came against Creighton (68-67), but Creighton is in last place in the Big East and still doesn't have a conference win.

Marquette has lost three in a row as well, but it has at least been competitive.  It only lost 58-62 at Xavier as 9.5-point dogs, 57-60 at St. John's as 6.5-point dogs, and 85-95 (OT) at home against Georgetown as 1.5-point dogs.  This team has just been on the wrong end of several close losses this season as each of their last five losses have either come by 6 points or less or in overtime.

Marquette is 8-3 at home this season.  It only home losses came against Georgetown (in OT), Wisconsin and Nebraska-Omaha.  Obviously, that early-season loss to Nebraska-Omaha was not pretty, but this has been a completely different team ever since.  I just really like the fight I've seen from this squad, and they are sure to bring it tonight against Seton Hall.

The Eagles are 5-0 straight up in their last five meetings with the Pirates with four of those victories coming by 7 points or more.  Marquette is 6-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game this season.  The Eagles are 8-1 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this year.  The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  These four trends combine for a 28-2 system backing the Eagles.  Take Marquette Wednesday.

15* Colorado State/Boise State ESPNU Late-Night BAILOUT on Boise State -1.5

The Boise State Broncos are a team that continually gets overlooked in the Mountain West Conference.  They have gone 14-6 this season and have proven to be fully capable of beating any team in the league.  I look for them to knock off one of the better teams in the MWC in Colorado State tonight.

Boise State's six losses this season have all come against quality competition in Wisconsin, NC State, Colorado State, Utah State, Wyoming and Loyola-Illinois, and five of those losses have come on the road.  Four of them came by 6 points or less as well.

After playing a tough early schedule, the Broncos were battle-tested, and they have been playing their best basketball of the season here of late as a result.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight blowout victories over UNLV (82-73) as 5.5-point home favorites, New Mexico (69-59) as 5-point road dogs, San Jose State (86-36) as 21-point home favorites, and Air Force (77-68) as 6-point road favorites.

Colorado State has exceeded expectations by going 18-2 this season.  However, it played a very weak non-conference schedule, and it has just had a way of winning every close game.  Eight of its last 13 victories have come by 6 points or less, including road wins over Colorado (62-60), Denver (85-84), New Mexico State (58-57) and Air Force (92-87).

So, the Rams are 5-1 in true road games this season, but four of those victories have come by 5 points or less, and the lone blowout was against MWC bottom feeder San Jose State.  Boise State is 7-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 24.3 points per game.  Its lone home loss came by a single point to Utah State (62-63).

The Broncos already proved they could play with the Rams this season when they only lost 65-71 as 7.5-point road underdogs on December 31st in the MWC opener.  The Broncos will clearly be out for revenge, and should get it at home this time around.  This is also a letdown spot for Colorado State, which just beat MWC favorite San Diego State 79-73 at home on Saturday.  I just don't foresee the Rams being able to match the intensity of the Broncos given the spot.

Colorado State is 4-16 ATS versus excellent ball-handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 3-13 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  Colorado State is 2-13 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 2-13 ATS after committing 8 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Colorado State is 8-23-1 ATS in its last 32 games following a win.  The Rams are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with Boise State Tuesday.

25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls +10

The Chicago Bulls have been one of the best road teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 16-6 away from home this year where they are outscoring teams by an average of 3.3 points per game.  They are one of the rare exception of an NBA team that plays better on the road than they do at home.

I like what I've seen from Chicago here of late.  It put together back-to-back upset wins over San Antonio (104-81) as 5.5-point home dogs and Dallas (102-98) as 5.5-point road dogs.  The Bulls did come back and lose to Miami at home last time out, but that was clearly a letdown spot off those two huge wins.  They easily could have been looking ahead to this game against the Warriors as well.

The Warriors have the best record in the NBA at 36-6.  They have also gone a ridiculous 28-12-2 ATS in all games this season.  Well, now that we are halfway through the season, the odds have finally caught up to them.  The betting public continues to back them with regularity, but they are simply laying numbers that they cannot cover with any kind of consistency, including tonight.

Last time out, the Warriors came in as 18-point favorites over the Celtics on Sunday.  It was only the second time all year they were favored by 18 points or more.  They failed to cover, and barely won the game 114-111 at home against a Boston team that is nowhere near the caliber of this Chicago squad.

Chicago will be out for revenge from a 102-112 home loss to the Warriors in their first meeting this season.  It is 19-8 ATS revenging a loss by 10 points or more against an opponent over the last two seasons.  Tom Thibodeau is 39-21 ATS in road gams when playing 8 or more games in 14 days as the coach of Chicago.  Thibodeau is 55-32 ATS in road games after having won two of their last three games as the coach of the Bulls.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Georgetown -4.5

The Georgetown Hoyas are back.  They are one of the best teams in the Big East at 14-5 this season and 6-2 within the conference.  They come in playing some of their best basketball of the year as well.

The Hoyas have won four straight coming in.  That includes a 78-58 home victory over highly-ranked Villanova, handing the Wildcats their worst loss of the year.  They were in a clear letdown spot on Saturday following that win, but managed to gut out a 95-85 (OT) win at Marquette.  The Hoyas have shot 50% or better in three of their last four games.

Xavier (13-7) continues to get too much respect from oddsmakers tonight despite going 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  That includes blowout road losses to Butler (76-88) and Villanova (75-88).  Its only wins during this stretch came at home against Marquette (62-58) as 9.5-point favorites, and DePaul (89-76) as 14-point favorites.

Georgetown is 10-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 13.7 points per game.  Xavier is just 1-5 in true road games this year.  Its lone road win came at SEC bottom feeder Missouri.  It has also lost to the likes of Auburn, DePaul and Providence on the road this season.

Yes, Xavier handed Georgetown its worst loss of the season in a 70-53 home victory for the Musketeers in the Big East opener on December 31st.  However, I believe that result will work in our favor here.  The Hoyas will be highly motivated for revenge, and they'll be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this one.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with blowout wins by 17, 22 and 13 points dating back to last year.  After losing at Xavier by 13 points in their first meeting of 2013-14, the Hoyas got revenge in a 22-point blowout at home in their second meeting.  I look for a repeat of last year.

The Hoyas are 10-2 ATS revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons.  Georgetown is 12-3 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  Xavier is 0-7 ATS after two straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds this season.  The Musketeers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Xavier is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  These last three trends combine for a 16-0 system backing the Hoyas.  Take Georgetown Tuesday.

20* Texas/Iowa State Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -4.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are coming off an embarrassing 78-73 road loss to the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who were previously winless in Big 12 play.  It's safe to say that the Cyclones won't be lacking any motivation as they return home Monday to take on the Texas Longhorns.

Iowa State has been plagued by slow starts, averaging 33.7 points in the first of of the past six games compared to 42.3 in the last 20 minutes.  They scored 48 over the final 20 minutes in their loss to the Red Raiders, but were down 19 after the first 20 minutes and simply couldn't overcome it.  Look for them to get off to a fast start tonight and never let up.

"We've somehow got to find a way to get off to a (good) start and at least give ourselves a chance," head coach Fred Hoiberg said. "It's unacceptable. I wish I could tell you why exactly it happened. We'll figure it out."

The ninth-ranked Cyclones will be going for their 18th consecutive home victory.  They have scored an average of 82.6 points per game on 49.9% shooting while winning each of their last 17 at Hilton Coliseum.  They have also taken their last five home games against ranked opponents.

One of those victories came last season at home against Texas in an 85-76 victory.  Iowa State has won three the past three meetings in Ames by 9, 20 and 6 points.  The home team has won each of the last seven meetings in this series, so clearly home-court advantage has been huge.

Texas is just about as inconsistent as they come.  The Longhorns are just 3-3 in Big 12 play with ugly home losses to Oklahoma (49-70) and Kansas (62-75), as well as a double-digit road loss to Oklahoma State (58-69).  PG Isaiah Taylor is their best player, but he's going to be up against one of the top defenders in the country in Monte Morris tonight, who will shut him down.

Iowa State is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last three seasons, winning by an average of 10.4 points per game in this spot.  The Cyclones are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Iowa State is 18-8 ATS in its last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Ames.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Iowa State Monday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +12.5

The Orlando Magic (15-32) have gone 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  Whenever a team gets on an ATS losing streak like the one the Magic are on, the betting public tends to look to fade them.  As a result, teams like this start to show some pretty good value against the spread.

I believe that's the case here with the Magic, who have lost four of their last five games by 10 points or less, so they have at least been competitive.  One of those losses was a 96-106 home loss to Memphis on January 16th just 10 days ago.  Look for the Magic to be out for revenge in the rematch here.

The Memphis Grizzlies have won six of their last seven games overall while going 5-1-1 ATS.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them.  Well, only one of those six wins during this stretch came by more than 12 points.  That was a 101-83 home victory over the lowly Philadelphia 76ers as 17.5-point favorites last time out.

Orlando has played Memphis very tough in recent meetings.  In fact, Orlando has only lost once to Memphis by more than 12 points in the last 16 meetings in this series.  That makes for a 15-1 system backing the Magic pertaining to tonight's 12.5-point spread.

Memphis is 14-30 ATS in its last 44 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  The Magic are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Orlando is 17-8 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The Grizzlies are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Magic Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Minnesota Timberwolves +16

The Minnesota Timberwolves (7-36) are showing tremendous value tonight as 16-point road underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  I'll gladly take advantage and back them as massive dogs to an Oklahoma City team that just isn't quite right.

The Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games as they have been very competitive against some quality teams.  They beat Indiana 110-101 as 11-point road dogs to start the streak.  They also lost at Phoenix 99-110 as 14-point road dogs, beat Denver 113-105 as 11.5-point road dogs, and lost to Atlanta 100-112 as 17.5-point road dogs.

Oklahoma City is coming off back-to-back blowout losses at Atlanta (93-103) as 4-point dogs and at Cleveland (98-108) as 3-point dogs.  Now, the Thunder will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  This is about as tough of a situation as it gets.  After a five-game road trip, they will struggle in their first game back homel, which is also a difficult spot in the NBA.

Minnesota has played Oklahoma City pretty tough here of late.  It has only lost by more than 10 points once in its last six meetings with the Thunder.  The Timberwolves are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference foes.  OKC is 0-6 ATS in its last six Monday games.  Take the Timberwolves Monday.

15* Syracuse/North Carolina ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Syracuse +10.5

The Syracuse Orange (14-6) clearly aren't as good as they have been in year's past.  However, they are plenty good enough to stay within 10 points of the North Carolina Tar Heels (16-4) tonight.

The Orange have failed to cover the spread in four straight and six of their last seven coming in.  When teams go on poor ATS runs like this, there's a good chance they will be showing value in their next game, and I certainly believe that's the case tonight.

North Carolina has won five straight and 10 of its last 11 coming in.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back the Tar Heels, who have always been a public team.  Well, four of their last six games have been decided by 4 points or less, so it's not like they are blowing out the opposition with regularity like this spread would suggest.

I really like this matchup for Syracuse.  The Orange run Jim Boeheim's patented zone defense that forces opponents to make the 3-pointer with consistency to beat them.  They only allow 29.2% shooting from 3-point range this season, and 37.8% overall.  Well, the Tar Heels are not a good 3-point shooting team.  They only make 31.8% of their attempts from distance, including 28.4% at home.

Syracuse has won each of its last four meetings with North Carolina.  That includes a 57-45 home victory last January in which both teams combined to shoot 36.9% from the field and 6 of 31 from 3-point range.  The Tar Heels only went 2-of-12 (16.7%) from distance in the loss.  I look for another ugly, low-scoring game in this one, which clearly favors the double-digit underdog Orange.

North Carolina is 0-6 ATS after having won 12 o more of its last 15 games over the past two seasons.  Syracuse is 9-2 ATS vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Tar Heels are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  UNC is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 vs. ACC opponents.  The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Bet Syracuse Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Warriors UNDER 214.5

The Golden State Warriors are making a lot of headlines here recently due to their offense that has put up 115 or more points in five straight games coming in.  Klay Thompson just set a record for most points in a quarter (37) against Sacramento last time out. As a result, the total of this game against the Boston Celtics has been inflated.

While there's no question the Warriors are a very good offensive team, the real reason why they are in first place in the West at 35-6 is because of their defense.  Indeed, the Warriors rank 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up and average of 96.9 points per 100 possessions.

Boston has traded away all of its best players in Rajon Rondo, Jeff Green and company.  It is now being forced to try to win games with its defense because it lacks scorers.  The UNDER is 3-0 in Boston's last three games overall as it lost 93-102 at the LA Clippers before winning 90-89 at the Blazers and 100-99 at the Nuggets. 

All three of those teams are among the best offensive teams in the league, but the Celitcs have hung right with them by shortening the game and playing solid defense.  Plus, the Celtics are expected to be without two key offensive players in Marcus Smart and Kelly Olynyk tonight. Olynyk is actually the team's third-leading leading scorer at 11.1 points per game.

Taking a look at the recent history between these teams, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated.  The Celtics & Warriors have combined for 210 or fewer points in each of their last 10 meetings.  They have combined for 196, 196, 180 and 184 points in their last four meetings, respectively.  That's an average of just 189.0 points per game, which is roughly 26 points less than tonight's posted total of 214.5.

Golden State is 16-5 to the UNDER after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more points over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 12-3 to the UNDER in home games after a combined score of 225 or more points over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Celtics last four road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Warriors last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 40-15 in Warriors last 55 after allowing 100 points or more in their prvious game.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves +18.5

The Atlanta Hawks are on a ridiculous run right now where they have gone 15-0 straight up and 14-0-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  After covering 14 straight coming in, the Hawks could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They are 18.5-point favorites over the Timberwolves tonight, and they haven't been more than 11-point favorites in any game this season up to this point.

At 7-35, the Minnesota Timberwolves could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now as well.  They have lost three straight while going 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall to boot.  This is simply the perfect storm tonight folks as this number is too high.

Also, if Atlanta were to ever have a letdown, it would be tonight against the Timberwolves.  That's because they are coming off a huge win over one of the best teams in the West in the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday.  They won't be playing with the kind of focus and effort they played with against the Thunder against the Timberwolves tonight.

Minnesota has played Atlanta very tough in recent meetings, going 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight matchups.  In fact, the Timberwolves have not lost by more than 10 points to the Hawks in any of the last eight meetings, making for a perfect 8-0 system backing them pertaining to this 18.5-point spread.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (MINNESOTA) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 46-17 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Minnesota is 4-1-2 ATS in its last seven trips to Atlanta.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

15* Missouri Valley Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Drake +25

The No. 14 Wichita State Shockers are certainly one of the better teams in the country and the favorites to win the Missouri Valley Conference this season.  However, with their 17-2 record comes expectations from the betting public and the oddsmakers that the Shockers simply cannot live up to from time to time.

The Drake Bulldogs are 4-15 and one of the worst teams in the Missouri Valley Conference.  The betting public wants nothing to do with the Bulldogs because of their record, which combined with their love for Wichita State, has created some excellent line value for us to back Drake Sunday as 25-point underdogs.

Wichita State will be lacking the kind of motivation it takes to put away a team like Drake by 26-plus points today.  Even if the Shockers get out to a big lead early, I look for them to take their foot off the gas.  Meanwhile, this is Drake's Super Bowl pretty much as it will be highly motivated to face the Shockers.

The Bulldogs have been playing their best basketball of the season here of late.  They have gone 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only lost 47-50 at Loyola-IL as 12-point underdogs, beat Indiana State 84-78 as 3-point home underdogs, and lost to Illinois State 56-64 as 9-point home underdogs.  Those are three of the best teams in the MVC, and the Bulldogs hung right with them.

Perhaps even more promising is the fact that Drake actually gave Wichita State a run for its money the first time these teams squared off this season back on December 31st.  The Shockers only beat the Bulldogs 66-58 as 17-point road favorites.  Wichita State could be lacking motivation since it already beat Drake as well, while Drake will come in with some confidence and wanting revenge after already playing the Shockers tough once.

Plays on underdogs of 20 or more points (DRAKE) - good ball handling team (less than 14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (less than 14.5 TO's) after 15+ games are 60-26 (69.8%) ATS since 1997.  Wichita State is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 home games after allowing 65 points or less in four straight games coming in.  Roll with Drake Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Grizzlies UNDER 190

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Philadelphia 76ers and Memphis Grizzlies.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between these teams tonight.

Philadelphia is the worst offensive team in the league.  It is scoring just 90.0 points per game on 40.9% shooting.  It hasn't scored more than 96 points in any of its last 20 games, and it has been held below 90 nine times during this stretch.  It has been playing good defense, though, allowing 100 or fewer points in eight of its last 11 games.  The UNDER is 10-1 in 76ers' last 11 games overall.

Memphis isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut, either.  However, it gets after it defensively with the best of them.  It has allowed 98 or fewer points in six of its last nine games overall.  It ranks 11th in defensive efficiency, while Philadelphia ranks a respectable 14th.  Memphis will set the tempo at home tonight, and it ranks 27th in pace at 94.1 possessions per game.

The UNDER is 14-5 in 76ers last 19 road games.  Philadelphia is 9-1 to the UNDER in road games off two or more consecutive home losses over the last two seasons.  Memphis is 11-1 to the UNDER in home games after a game where it allowed a shooting percentage of 35% or less since 1996.  The UNDER is 6-0 in 76ers last six games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.  The UNDER is 7-0 in 76ers last seven games following a loss.  These last four trends combine for a 33-2 system backing the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +9.5

Despite recently getting back star Carmelo Anthony from injury, the New York Knicks continue to get no respect from oddsmakers tonight as 9.5-point underdogs to the Charlotte Hornets.  They are showing excellent value here as the chances of them losing by double-digits are slim to nine.

The Knicks have not quit, which has been evident in their last three games.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three.  They beat New Orleans 99-92 as 4-point home underdogs, Philadelphia 98-91 as 3-point road favorites, and Orlando 113-106 as 3-point home dogs.  They are playing with a lot of confidence right now.

The Charlotte Hornets are clearly overvalued.  They had a stretch where they won eight of their last nine games prior to an ugly 90-129 loss at Cleveland last night.  That loss will really have these Hornets' players questioning how good they actually are, and I look for them to come back deflated from it.  They won't have the kind of focus and effort needed to win this game by double-digits.

"I think it's just effort, energy, attention to details," Anthony said. "I think the guys that have been helping us and contributing to these last couple of games, (those) guys are hungry. They're showing it, they're playing like it. They're having a lot of fun. We're having a lot of fun out there now. I think that comes with putting forth the effort and the energy and being able to see results from there."

'The guys' are several players that the Knicks have been giving playing time recently, and they are contributing in a big way.  Leading the way has been Langston Galloway, an undrafted rookie out of Saint Joseph's, who is averaging 15.7 points on 51.4 percent shooting during the three-game winning streak.  Like Galloway, Lance Thomas and Louis Amundson are on 10-day contracts.  Thomas scored 16 points off the bench against the Magic, while Amundson had six rebounds and two blocks as a starter.

"We've mixed in some personalities and some guys into this group, who have a core toughness about them that I think is effecting everybody," coach Derek Fisher said.

New York is 13-2 ATS versus good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Knicks are 29-9 ATS revenging a home blowout loss vs. opponent of 20 points or more.  Yes, the Knicks were blown out by the Hornets the last time they played, but they were without Anthony.  Charlotte is 1-8 ATS in home games off a road loss this season.  The road team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Roll with the Knicks Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Wisconsin -10

The Wisconsin Badgers are easily one of the top five teams in the country this season.  They are impossible to beat when they are on from 3-point range.  They may be the toughest matchup in all of college basketball outside of perhaps Kentucky.

The Badgers are off to a 17-2 start this season with their only two losses coming to Duke and Rutgers.  Obviously that was a poor 62-67 loss at Rutgers a few weeks ago, but keep in mind that the Badgers were down two starters in that game.

Aside from those two contests, it has pretty much been all domination for the Badgers.  Indeed, 15 of their 17 wins have come by double-digits.  That includes victories over the likes of Green Bay (84-60), Oklahoma (69-56), Marquette (49-38), California (68-56), Penn State (89-72), Northwestern (81-58), Nebraska (70-55) and Iowa (82-50).

Michigan got off to a terrible start this season at 6-5 with losses to the likes of New Jersey Tech (70-72) as 24-point home favorites and Eastern Michigan (42-45) as 14.5-point home favorites.  It has turned it around in Big Ten play, winning five of its seven league games.  

However, all five victories came by single-digits, and the five wins came against five of the worst teams in the league in Illinois, Penn State, Minnesota, Northwestern and Rutgers.  It lost badly to the two best teams it has played in Purdue (51-62) and Ohio State (52-71).

Now, Michigan just recently lost its best player in Caris LeVert to a season-ending foot injury.  LeVert leads the team in minutes (35.8), points (14.9), rebounds (4.9), assists (3.7) and steals (1.8) per game.  The Wolverines were able to sneak by Rutgers (54-50) in their first game without him on Tuesday, but they aren't about to hang with Wisconsin without him.

The Badgers are 7-1 on the road this season where they are outscoring opponents by 15.6 points per game.  The Wolveriners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Wisconsin is 9-2 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last two seasons.  

The Badgers are 6-0 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more this season.  Wisconsin is 7-0 ATS off a blowout win by 30 or more points over the last two years.  Wisconsin is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.  These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing the Badgers.  Roll with Wisconsin Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt -1.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores (11-7) are one of the sleepers in the SEC this season.  They constantly get overlooked despite playing some very solid basketball this season.  However, they get no respect from the books today as only 1.5-point favorites over LSU.

The reason is pretty simple.  Oddsmakers know that the betting public wants nothing to do with Vanderbilt off four straight losses coming into this game, while the betting public is all over LSU after beating Florida on the road last time out, and with its 14-4 record.

Well, a closer look at Vanderbilt's four losses shows that they weren't bad at all.  Three of the four came on the road to Arkansas (70-82), Mississippi State (54-57) and Kentucky (57-65), while the other came at home to Georgia (67-70).

As you can see, three of the four losses came by single-digits.  It is extremely difficult to win at Arkansas, and the Commodores gave Kentucky all they could handle in an 8-point road loss as 21.5-point dogs.  That effort against the No. 1 team in the country gives this young team the confidence to know that they can play with anyone.

This is a massive letdown spot for LSU.  The Tigers are coming off their huge upset win at Florida as 11-point underdogs last time out, and it's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown the game after.  Keep in mind this is the same team that lost to Texas A&M 64-67 as 5-point favorites the game before, and also that this Florida team may be the worst one that Billy Donovan has ever had.

Vanderbilt has a huge home-court advantage.  It is 9-2 at home this season where it is outscoring teams by an average of 13.6 points per game.  Its only home losses this season have come to quality Georgia and Baylor teams by a combined 6 points, so that's how close it is to being 11-0 at home.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team has won four of the last five meetings.  Vanderbilt is 7-2 straight up in its last nine home meetings with LSU.  The Tigers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. 

Vanderbilt is 9-1 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots over the last three seasons.  The Commodores are 11-1 ATS versus excellent teams who shot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse over the last two seasons.  Take Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Houston +19.5

There's no question that SMU is one of the most improved teams in the country over the past two seasons.  It should have made the NCAA Tournament last year but got snubbed, and now its off to a 15-4 start this season and well on its way to a berth in the Big Dance.

However, with that 15-4 record comes expectations from the oddsmakers and the betting public that the Mustangs simply cannot live up to.  After covering the spread in three straight games coming into this one, I have no doubt that the Mustangs are overvalued here as 19.5-point favorites over Houston.

The Cougars are in rebuilding mode under first-year head coach Kelvin Sampson.  Sampson is a guy that has the credentials to turn around this program, just as he did at Oklahoma.  He, like SMU coach Larry Brown, is well-respected among coaching circles as Sampson also has experience in the NBA as well.

While the Cougars are just 7-11 on the season, they are only getting outscored by 1.2 points per game.  They have been competitive in almost every game.  In fact, they have only lost by more than 19 points once in their 18 games this season.  That stat alone shows you that there is value in backing the Cougars as 19.5-point dogs here.

While SMU has won and covered three straight coming in, Houston has helped contribute to this line value by losing seven straight and going 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The betting public wants nothing to do with this team with how poorly it has been at the pay window of late, which usually means it's time to jump on board.  The price is right tonight.

Houston has played SMU extremely tough in recent years.  In fact, it is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with SMU.  Last year, when SMU nearly made the NCAA Tournament, all three games between these teams were decided by 7 points or less.  SMU won at home 68-64 and on the road 75-68.  However, the Cougars got revenge in the AAC Tournament, winning 68-64 as 9.5-point dogs.  That loss by the Mustangs likely cost them their shot at the Big Dance.

Sampson is 10-2 ATS Off a cover where his team lost straight up as an underdog in all games he has coached.  SMU is 35-58 ATS in its last 93 home games off one or more consecutive wins.  The Cougars are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to SMU.  Bet Houston Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse -2

The Syracuse Orange clearly aren't as dominant as they have been in year's past, but they have still managed to post a 14-5 record overall and a 5-1 mark in conference play.  They haven't been that good ATS this year at just 6-10, which is why the betting public hasn't been backing them in year's past.

Well, rarely in the Jim Boeheim era would you ever get the chance to back Syracuse as only a 2-point home favorite.  That's the gift that has been given to us from the oddsmakers today, and we'll take advantage.  After all, Syracuse is 11-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 17.1 points per game.  I'd say that's a pretty solid home-court advantage.

The reason this line is so low is because Miami is getting a ton of respect from the betting public and the oddsmakers.  It has been a tale of three seasons for the Hurricanes.  They started incredibly, lost to the likes of Wisconsin-Green Bay (55-68), Eastern Kentucky (44-72) and Providence (62-76) in the middle of the season, and now have been playing great again here of late.

However, I believe the Hurricanes are primed for a poor performance Saturday.  They have played five straight grueling games agianst Virginia, Boston College, Duke, Notre Dame and NC State.  Three of those games were decided by 5 points or less, and one went into overtime.

Plus, the Hurricanes will have just one day to prepare for Syracuse off their 65-60 home win over NC State on Thursday.  Meanwhile, Syracuse has had three full days to prepare for Miami after last playing on Tuesday in a 69-61 home win over Boston College.  This is simply a tough scheduling spot for the Hurricanes, and I cannot possibly see them going into Syracuse and pulling off the upset because of it.  Take Syracuse Saturday.

25* Big East GAME OF THE YEAR on Marquette -1

There is a reason that 10-8 Marquette is favored over 13-5 Georgetown today.  The oddsmakers need to make the Eagles an even bigger favorite in this game because this could not be a worse spot for Georgetown, or a better one for Marquette.

Yes, the Hoyas just upset highly-ranked Villanova 78-58 at home for their biggest win of the season.  Well, that sets them up for a letdown spot here today against Marquette.  They cannot possibly bring the kind of effort and focus they brought into the Villanova game into this game.

This is also a revenge spot for Marquette after losing to Georgetown 59-65 as 8.5-point road underdogs on January 6th.  So, the Eagles will want this game more, while the Hoyas have zero interest in beating a team they already beat once, especially after their win over Villanova.

Marquette is one of the most underrated teams in college basketball.  Not much was expected from this team after former head coach Buzz Williams left for Virginia Tech in the offseason.  Well, new head coach Steve Wojciechowski, who was perhaps the most fierce player in Duke history, hasn't let his team by into the fact that they weren't supposed to be any good.

The Eagles have gone toe-to-toe with the Big East's best this season.  They have beaten Providence at home, while suffering narrow road losses to Georgetown (62-58), St. Johns (57-60) and Xavier (58-62).  They will be even more hungry for a win today after those back-to-back losses to St. John's and Xavier by a combined 7 points coming in.

Marquette is 8-2 at home this season with one of its two losses coming to Wisconsin (38-49).  Georgetown is just 1-2 in true road games with losses to Xavier and Providence, and a narrow win over DePaul (78-72).  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings.

Marquette is 8-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% or worse shooting this season.  The Eagles are 8-0 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  Georgetown is 0-6 ATS off a game where it made 50% or more of its 3-point shots over the last two seasons.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games over the alst three years.  The Hoyas are 0-7 ATS in road games after having won four of their last five games over the last two seasons.  These five trends combine for a perfect 33-0 system backing the Eagles.  Bet Marquette Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota -5

The Minnesota Golden Gophers (12-8) have not gotten off to the start they wanted to in Big Ten play.  They are just 1-6 SU & 0-7 ATS in conference action this season.  As as result, they could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now after failing to cover the spread in seven straight.

This team is obviously better than its 1-6 record would indicate, but it has just lost every close game it has been in.  Indeed, five of the six losses came by 5 points or less, and the only exception was a 12-point loss at highly-ranked Maryland.  They lost at Purdue (68-72), at Michigan (57-62), at Nebraska (49-52), at home against Ohio State (72-74, OT) and at home against Iowa (75-77).

Illinois hasn't gotten off to the best start in Big Ten play, but it has done OK at 3-4.  It is just 1-3 in Big Ten road games this season, losing badly at Michigan (65-73), at Ohio State (61-77) and at Nebraska (43-53).  Its lone conference road win came at Big Ten bottom feeder Northwestern (72-67).

The Fighting Illini have survived despite some serious injury issues, but it can only survive for so long.  It is down two starters in leading scorer Rayvonte Rice (17.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg) and Tracy Abrams.  Now, another starter just went out in Aaron Crosby (7.8 ppg), who is the team's fourth-leading scorer.  Down three starters, head coach John Groce actually allowed his team manager to walk on to the team earlier this week, which just shows how desperate of a situation this is for Illinois.

Minnesota is 10-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 21.0 points per game.  Illinois is just 1-4 in true road games this year where it is getting outscored by 7.6 points per game.  The Fighting Illini are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Gophers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 50 or fewer points in their previous game.  Roll with Minnesota Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas -3

The Texas Longhorns did not get off to the best start in Big 12 play, but a lot of that was due to injury.  Now healthy, the Longhorns are showing why they had such high expectations coming into the season with five starters back from last year and a stud freshman coming in.

The Longhorns are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over West Virginia (77-50) at home and TCU (66-48) on the road.  They held the Mountaineers to just 24.1% shooting, and the Horned Frogs to 33.3%.  They are the best defensive team in the Big 12, and it's not even close.

Kansas is more beatable than it has ever been in 2014-15.  It's streak of 10 straight seasons winning at least a share of the conference title is in serious jeopardy.  It has only blown out one Big 12 opponent this year, and that was bottom feeder Texas Tech at home.  Despite being 4-1 in the Big 12, four of its five games were decided by 10 points or less.  This isn't the same dominate Kansas team of year's past, but it continues to get massive respect from oddsmakers that is not deserved.

Texas is 9-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 19.1 points per game.  Kansas is just 2-2 in true road games with narrow wins over Georgetown (75-70) and Baylor (56-55).  It has also lost at Temple (52-77) and at Iowa State (81-66) on the road.  Texas beat Kansas 81-69 as 4-point home underdogs last year.  Keep in mind that Texas team wasn't as good as this one, while that Kansas team was way better than this one.

Kansas is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games after having won 12 or more of its last 15 games coming in.  Texas is 7-1 ATS after allowing 60 or fewer points this season.  It is only giving up 56.3 PPG on 34.4% shooting this year.  The Jayhawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Longhorns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* Bulls/Mavericks ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Chicago +7

The Chicago Bulls are playing with a chip on their shoulder right now.  They recently lost six games in an eight-game stretch, and Derrick Rose spoke out about how frustrating it was that the team wasn't competing. 

After that stretch, I backed them last night in a dominant 104-81 home win over the reigning champion San Antonio Spurs as 6-point underdogs.  I look for them to carry that chip on their shoulder into Dallas tonight despite having to play the second of a back-to-back.

The Mavericks are just 4-3 SU & 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their four wins have come against the Timberwolvers, Nuggets, Kings and Grizzlies during this stretch.  They have also lost at home to Detroit (by 13), at the Clippers (by 20) and at the Nuggets (by 7).

Chicago has played its best basketball on the road this season, going 15-6 straight up in 21 road games.  Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series of late, either.  The road team has actually won three straight meetings between the Bulls and Mavericks.  The Bulls will be out for revenge from their 129-132 (double-OT) home loss to the Mavericks in their first meeting of 2014-15 back on December 2nd.

Chicago is 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Dallas.  Plays against favorites (DALLAS) - after three or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (at least 102 PPG) after 42+ games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on underdogs (CHICAGO) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite against opponent off two or more consecutive road wins are 33-13 (71.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Mavericks are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Take the Bulls Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Cavaliers UNDER 195

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Charlotte Hornets and Cleveland Cavaliers.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight as neither team reaches the 100-point barrier.

Charlotte leads the NBA with 95.3 points allowed per game.  That average has dropped dramatically here of late as the Hornets have held each of their last 10 opponents to 98 points or fewer, and an average of 87.2 points per game.  In their last three games, they held Indiana to 71 (in OT), Minnesota to 80, and Miami to 76.

While Cleveland's offense has picked up since the return of Lebron James, I believe the betting public is quick to back the overs in their games because of it, providing some line value.  The Cavs have also been solid defensively here of late.  They allowed 94 points and 37.5% shooting to Chicago, and 92 points on 41.7% shooting to Utah.

What stood out to me was just how low-scoring this series has been.  The Hornets and Cavs have combined for 193 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings.  They have combined for 178, 185, 190 (OT), 193, 166 and 174 points in those six meetings for an average of 181.0 points per game, which is 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 195.  That includes two meetings this season that have seen 178 and 185 combined points.

Charlotte is 16-3 to the UNDER in its last 19 road games off a close home win by 3 points or less.  Cleveland is 26-16 to the UNDER in all games this season.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Hornets last four games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Cavaliers last four vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Cavaliers last six home games.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Cavaliers last 16 overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5

This is a matchup of the NBA's most dangerous team (Oklahoma City) up against the NBA's hottest team (Atlanta) tonight.  I'm going to side with the dangerous team in the Thunder as 4.5-point road underdogs in this one.

The reason the Thunder are dangerous is because they are finally healthy and chasing down a playoff spot in the Western Conference.  They are currently in 9th place in the West, which makes them dangerous because they aren't going to take nights off the rest of the way.  They'll certainly be amped up for this game tonight.

The Hawks have won 14 straight games while going an unfathomable 13-0-1 ATS in those 14 games.  They have been the most underrated team in the league through the first half of the season.  However, those odds are finally starting to catch up to them, and they should not be favored against arguably the best team in the West when healthy in the Thunder.

Oklahoma City has shown what it is capable of when healthy here of late.  It has gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  It started with a 127-115 home win over Golden State, which owns the best record in the league.  Following that win was three straight road victories at Orlando (127-99), Miami (94-86) and Washington (105-103, OT).

The Thunder have had the Hawks' number, winning three straight in this series, and seven of the last nine meetings overall.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Atlanta as well.  Look for them to go into Atlanta and put an end to the Hawks' winning streak tonight, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

Atlanta is 10-22 ATS in its last 32 home games off a home win.  The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.  Oklahoma City is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games against Eastern Conference opponents.  It has simply been crushing the East, and Atlanta wouldn't fare nearly as well if it was in the West.  Bet the Thunder Friday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on California -1.5

The California Golden Bears (11-7) will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost four straight and six of their last seven while going 1-6 ATS in the process.  I'm ready to buy low on the Golden Bears here as they are getting no respect from oddsmakers as only 1.5-point favorites over the Arizona State Sun Devils.

Yes, the Golden Bears have not played all that well here of late.  However, they just recently got back one of their best players in guard Jabari Bird, who has only played in eight games all season due to injury.  He has returned for the last two games, but only played eight minutes against UCLA and 20 against Stanford.  Bird scored 12-plus points in four of his first five games of the season prior to the injury.

Obviously, the Golden Bears were working Bird back slowly, but they can take off the leash now.  That's because they have had a whopping seven days in between games since their 59-69 loss to Stanford on January 14th.  Arizona State, meanwhile, only has four days off in between games.  California will clearly be the more rested, more prepared team in this one.

Arizona State (9-9) has no business getting this much respect from the books.  It has lost four of its last five games coming in with its only victory coming at home against a short-handed Colorado team 78-72 last time out.  The Sun Devils are 0-7 on the road this season, getting outscored by 7.5 points per game.  They are 0-5 in true road games, getting outscored by 8.6 points per game.

The Sun Devils are 1-9 ATS in road games versus excellent ball handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  Arizona State is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 road games overall.  The Sun Devils are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 road games off a win by 6 points or less.  Bet California Thursday.

15* Spurs/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Chicago +6

The Chicago Bulls are clearly struggling right now without Joakim Noah, but they were struggling before he got injured, too.  While I do believe they miss Noah quite a bit, the fact of the matter is that the Bulls are simply showing too good of value to pass up tonight.

This line opened at Spurs -3.5 and the betting public has jumped all over San Antonio, driving this line up to 6.  They love the fact that the Spurs have won and covered four straight games coming into this one, and hate that the Bulls have lost four of five while going 1-4 ATS in the process.  This is an overreaction at its finest.

The Spurs' four-game winning streak has come against some weak competition.  They beat the Hornets and the Nuggets on the road, while topping the Blazers and Jazz at home during this stretch.  The Bulls have played much stiffer competition as three of their last four losses have come to Eastern Conference contenders Washington, Atlanta and Cleveland.

Derrick Rose spoke out after the team's loss to Cleveland on Monday, which also means that they have two days' rest coming into this game Thursday.  "It's just that no matter who is on the floor or who is out or who is coming back we just have to compete," Rose said. "My biggest thing is competing and making sure we let the opponent know we've come to play. We're midway through the season; it's no excuses." 

I look for an inspired effort from Rose and the Bulls tonight.  The Spurs haven't exactly been road warriors like they have been in year's past.  They are just 12-10 away from home this season, and very beatable outside of San Antonio.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence -2

The Providence Friars are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They got no love last year when they made the NCAA Tournament, and now they are getting no respect in 2014-15 again.  They have gone 14-5 in all games and 10-5-1 ATS in their 16 lined games this year.

Once again, the Friars aren't getting any love as only 2-point home favorites over Xavier tonight.  The Friars are 9-2 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 9.7 points per game.  They have beaten the likes of UMass (85-65), Creighton (65-63) and Georgetown (60-57) at home this year, while also topping FSU (80-54), Notre Dame (75-74), Miami (76-62) and Butler (66-62) on the road.

Xavier is a quality team this year as well at 12-6, but it tends to get more respect from the books than Providence.  The Musketeers have really been struggling of late, going 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost at Butler (76-88) and at Villanova (75-88), while barely beating Marquette (62-58) as 9.5-point home favorites. 

The Musketeers are 1-4 in true road games this year with those losses to Butler and Villanova, but also lowly DePaul and Auburn.  Their only road win came at Missouri, which is one of the worst teams in the SEC.  The home team won both meetings between Xavier and Providence last year.

The Friars are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Providence is 9-0 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams that average 4-plus more boards per game than their opponents over the last three seasons.  The Friars are 8-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Friars are 6-0 ATS off one or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  The Musketeers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  These last four trends combine for a 27-1 system backing the Friars.  Take Providence Thursday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington State +19.5

The Utah Utes are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are off to a blistering 14-3 start this season and are currently the No. 12 ranked team in the country.  Well, with that high ranking comes expectations from the betting public and the oddsmakers that they cannot live up to.

The Utes are in a hangover spot here.  They had a chance to prove themselves as a legitimate contender to win the Pac-12, but fell flat their faces in a 51-69 loss at Arizona on Saturday.  Off such a big, emotional game, it's only human nature for them to have a hangover effect here against Washington State.

The Utes won't be amped up to face the Cougars, who are just 9-8 on the season.  However, you cannot let that record fool you because this team has been playing some pretty stellar basketball here of late, which makes me believe they should have no problem staying within this massive spread tonight.

Washington State is 5-2 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  It did lose at Stanford (56-71) and versus Oregon State (47-62), but it also pulled off upset road wins over California (69-66) as 9.5-point dogs and Washington (80-77) as 11.5-point dogs.  The Cougars also upset Oregon (108-99) as 3-point home dogs.

Utah hasn't beaten Washington State by more than 18 points since 2000. This is the biggest spread in the history of this series between Utah and Washington State.  The Utes also haven't been favored by this much against anyone since November 29th against Alabama State at home, which was a 23.5-point spread.

Plays on underdogs of 20 or more points (WASHINGTON ST) - good ball handling team (at least 14.5 TO's/game) against a poor pressure defense (less than 14.5 TO's/game) after 15+ games are 60-24 (71.4%) ATS since 1997.

The Cougars are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The Cougars are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Bet Washington State Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Creighton +10

The Creighton Bluejays are showing tremendous value today as 10-point road underdogs to the Butler Bulldogs.  The betting public wants nothing to do with the Bluejays right now because they have lost seven straight games coming into this one.

Well, a closer look at this seven-game losing streak shows that the Bluejays have at least been competitive.  Indeed, five of the seven losses came by 10 points or less, including two by exactly one point to Marquette and Seton Hall.

Butler isn't a team known for blowing out its opponents due to the style in which it plays.  In fact, it only has one win by double-digits in its last six games overall.  Its last two games have been decided by a total of six points in a loss to Georgetown and an overtime win against Seton Hall.

Creighton pulled off the season sweep against Butler last year.  It won 88-60 at home as 10-point favorites, and then 68-63 as 8-point road favorites.  I realize the Bluejays aren't the team they were a year ago, but they are much better than they are getting credit for tonight from the books.

Plays against favorites of of 10 to 19.5 points (BUTLER) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with Creighton Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Grizzlies UNDER 200

I look for a defensive battle tonight between the Toronto Raptors and Memphis Grizzlies in this non-conference showdown between two of the top teams in their respective conferences.  The oddsmakers have simply inflated this total, and we'll take advantage.

Toronto is playing much better defense here of late, but its offense is lacking.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the Raptors' last four games overall.  They have been held to 93 or fewer points in three of those four games, and given up 95 or fewer in three of the four.  They have combined with each of their last four opponents for 199 or less points.

Memphis comes into this game playing great defense as well.  It has held three of its last four opponents to 98 or fewer points.  Three of its last four games have seen 200 or fewer combined points as well.  That includes home games against high-scoring Western Conference teams in Portland (102-98) and Dallas (95-103).

What really stood out to me when handicapping this game was the recent head-to-head history between these teams.  The Raptors and Grizzlies have combined for 190 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings.  They have averaged 183.6 combined points in those five meetings, which is roughly 16 points less than tonight's posted total of 200.  What's more is that the highest total set in any of those five games was 192.5, so there is clearly some value here with this UNDER.

Toronto is 12-1 to the UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 12-2 in Raptors last 14 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Grizzlies last 10 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The UNDER is 23-6 in the last 29 meetings in this series.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wake Forest +8

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are showing tremendous value as 8-point home underdogs to the North Carolina Tar Heels.  This is a Wake Forest team that is improving greatly in the first year under head coach Danny Manning, who was fortunate enough to have three starters back from last year.

I know the Demon Deacons are only 9-9 this season, but I've seen enough from them here of late to know that they can not only cover the 8-point spread, but also win this game outright.  They have gone a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall as they have been undervalued time and time again, and they are still getting no respect from the books tonight.

Wake Forest has won four of its last seven games with its three losses coming to Louisville (76-85) as 12.5-point underdogs, Duke (65-73) as 15-point dogs, and Syracuse (83-86) as 9.5-point dogs.  If they can stay within single-digits of all three of those ACC powers, they can certainly do the same against North Carolina tonight.

What really stood out to me when handicapping this game was the fact that the Demon Deacons are rested and ready to go, while the Tar Heels are now.  Wake Forest last played on January 13th against Syracuse, getting seven days off in between games.  UNC last played on January 18th against Virginia Tech, getting just two days off in between games.  I'll gladly back the more rested, more prepared team tonight in the Demon Deacons.

Wake Forest pulled off the upset at home last year against North Carolina as 6.5-point underdogs.  It won that game 73-67, and it is fully capable of doing the same thing with a better team this time around, and several players who starred in that upset.

The Demon Deacons are 6-0 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  The Demon Deacons are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the Demon Deacons.  Bet Wake Forest Wednesday.

20* Iowa/Wisconsin ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa +9.5

The Wisconsin Badgers come into this game overvalued as 9.5-point favorites against the Iowa Hawkeyes.  They are the No. 6 ranked team in the country and off to a 16-2 start, so they are obviously getting a lot of respect from the betting public and the oddsmakers right now.

The Badgers have not been living up to those expectations despite playing a very soft schedule.  They are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall despite going 5-1 straight up.  They only beat Buffalo (68-56) as 22-point home favorites, Penn State (89-72) as 18.5-point home favorites, Purdue (62-55) as 16.5-point home favorites, Nebraska (70-55) as 15-point home favorites, and lost at Rutgers (62-67) as 15-point road favorites.

As you can see, the Badgers have played an extremely soft schedule here of late, and they won't be ready for the test they are about to get from Iowa.  This will easily be Wisconsin's toughest opponent dating back to a 70-80 home loss to Duke back on January 3rd.  They aren't going to be able to put away the Hawkeyes by 10-plus points to cover this spread.

Iowa has really turned its season around and now finds itself in the Top 25 with a 13-5 record.  It has gone 5-1 in its last six games overall.  That includes road wins over Ohio State (71-65) as 7-point dogs and Minnesota (77-75) as 3-point dogs, as well as home wins over Nebraska (70-59) as 9.5-point favorites and Ohio State (76-67) as 1.5-point favorites.  Iowa is actually 3-0 in true road games this year, playing its best basketball away from home.

The closely-contested nature of this series makes Iowa the pick here as well.  Indeed, each of the last seven meetings between Wisconsin and Iowa have been decided by 7 points or less.  Time and time again Wisconsin is overvalued when playing the Hawkeyes, who are 6-1 ATS in those seven meetings.  They want revenge after losing each of the last three meetings in this series, including both last year, all by 5 points or less.

Wisconsin is 2-10 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 33-16 ATS in their last 49 games following a S.U. win.  Wisconsin is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six vs. Big Ten foes.  Iowa is 6-0 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  The Badgers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games.  The underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Combine these three trends with the fact that the last seven meetings have been decided by 7 or less, and we have a perfect 23-0 system backing the Hawkeyes.  Bet Iowa Tuesday.

15* Thunder/Heat Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma City -6.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are rolling now that Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are back healthy.  At 20-20 and in 9th place in the Western Conference, 3.5 games back of Phoenix for 8th place, look for the Thunder to keep their foot on the gas tonight against the Miami Heat.

The Thunder have won each of their last two games via blowout.  They beat Golden State 127-115 at home, and the Warriors currently have the best record in the league.  They followed that up with a 127-99 win at Orlando against a Magic team that has been playing well of late.  Now, their travel is minimal two days later as they make the short trip to Miami.

The Heat have ample rest coming into this one following their five-game road trip out West, but that first game back home following a long road trip is almost always tough for NBA teams.  Also, the fact of the matter is that the Heat just do not have the talent this year to match up with the Thunder, and they were blown out by Golden State (by 15) and Portland (by 16) on their road trip, which are two teams nearly equal to the Thunder talent-wise.

The Thunder have been feasting against the weak Eastern Conference, going 4-0-1 ATS in their last five against them.  That includes the win over Orlando (by 28), but also Charlotte (by 23), Cleveland (by 9), Washington (by 7) and Milwaukee (by 13).  The Thunder are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

Miami is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  The Heat are 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win.  Miami is 2-9-2 ATS in its last 13 following an ATS win.  The Heat are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games.  Miami is 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season, coming back to lose by an average of 11.5 points per game in this spot.  The Heat are 1-11 ATS in home games after playing four consecutive road games over the last three seasons.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

15* K-State/Iowa State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State +11

The ninth-ranked Iowa State Cyclones are way overvalued here due to their 13-3 start and off their huge 86-81 win over Kansas on Saturday.  This is the ideal letdown spot for the Cyclones as the Jayhawks are their nemesis.  ESPN's College Gameday was in Ames for that game as well, and there's no way these players are going to come back now two days later with the kind of focus it takes to put away Kansas State by 11-plus points.

While the Cyclones couldn't be getting more love from the betting public and the oddsmakers for their win over Kansas, the Kansas State Wildcats continue to get disrespected in Big 12 play.  Sure, they are just 11-6 on the season, but they have stepped their game up in conference play, and I've seen enough from them to know they can stay within double-digits of Iowa State, especially in this favorable spot.

Kansas State is 4-1 in Big 12 play.  It has reeled off four straight victories since its opening loss at Oklahoma State.  It beat TCU (58-53) as 4.5-point home favorites, Oklahoma (66-63, OT) as 12-point road underdogs, Texas Tech (58-51) as 9.5-point home favorites, and Baylor (63-61) as 1.5-point home favorites.  Those wins over Oklahoma and Baylor show that the Wildcats can play with the Big 12's elite, home or away.

The closely-contested nature of this series makes Kansas State the play as well.  Each of the last seven meetings between Kansas State and Iowa State have been decided by 9 points or less.  The Wildcats will be out for revenge on the Cyclones after losing two out of three meetings last year.  Kansas State has lost its last three visits to Hilton Coliseum by an average of 4.6 points.

In fact, Kansas State hasn't lost any of its last 19 meetings with Iowa State by more than 9 points.  That makes for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to tonight's 11-point spread.  Enough said.  Take Kansas State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Rutgers -3

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are easily one of the most underrated teams in the Big Ten.  That is evidenced by the fact that they have gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall, time and time again not getting the respect they deserve from the betting public or the oddsmakers.  They are showing excellent value again tonight as only 3-point favorites over Michigan.

Rutgers has proven its value in its last three games where it has played three of the best teams in the Big Ten right down to the wire.  It upset Wisconsin 67-62 as 15-point home dogs, then went on the road and hung with Maryland (65-73) as 14-point dogs and Minnesota (80-89) as 12.5-point dogs.

Michigan gets a lot of love from the betting public just because it's Michigan.  Well, the Wolverines are clearly having a down year at 11-7 as this team is rebuilding.  They are just 5-11 ATS in all lined games and are getting more respect than they deserve tonight because they have played a lot better here of late.

Indeed, the Wolverines are 5-2 SU in their last seven games overall.  However, their five wins came against Coppin State, Illinois, Penn State, Minnesota and Northwestern with four of those coming at home.  They lost two road games in blowout fashion to Purdue (51-62) and Ohio State (52-71) during this span to drop to 1-3 in true road games this year.

If Michigan were at full strength, I'd still like Rutgers tonight, but the Wolverines are far from it.  They will be playing their first game without guard Chris LeVert, who leads the team in scoring (14.9 ppg), rebounding (4.9 rpg), assists (3.7 apg) and 3-point shooting (40.5%).  They have even struggled with him, and now that he is out for the season with a foot injury, they are going to really struggle going forward.

The injury concerns don't stop at LaVert, however.  Second-leading scorer Zak Irvin (13.9 ppg), fourth-leading scorer Ricky Doyle (7.3 ppg) and fifth-leading scorer Spike Albrecht (5.1 ppg) are all battling a respiratory illness.  Irvin and Doyle are both probable, while Albrecht is questionable.  Also, third-leading scorer Derrick Walton Jr. (10.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg) is questionable with a foot injury.  That means that each of their top five scorers are battling illness or injury, and they could be without up to three of them tonight.  Being without LeVert is more than enough reason to fade Michigan.

Plays against an underdog (MICHIGAN) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT shooting team (less than 32%) after 15+ games, after two straight games making 37% of their shots or worse are 57-23 (71.2%) ATS since 1997.  Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (RUTGERS) - after going over the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS since 1997.  The Wolverines are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  The Scarlet Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Roll with Rutgers Tuesday.

15* Oklahoma/Kansas ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Kansas -5

The Kansas Jayhawks (14-3) come into this game against the Oklahoma Sooners (12-5) highly motivated for a victory.  They are coming off an 86-81 road loss to the Iowa State Cyclones to suffer their first Big 12 loss this year.  Look for them to be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight against Oklahoma.

"It's a quick turnaround," head coach Bill Self said. "Now the real fun begins trying to get your team back (after) a deflating loss. We'll have to be good because I think (Oklahoma) and Iowa State are the two best offensive teams in our league, and we saw how we guarded one of the two. We'll have to make some adjustments and hopefully be turned up more defensively on Monday."

Oklahoma comes into this game overvalued after its 82-65 throttling of Oklahoma State on Saturday.  The Sooners shot a ridiculous 55.8% from the field, which can be attributed to Buddy Hield's 10-for-10 shooting performance.  Neither of those two things are going to happen again on the road this time around.

The Sooners are just 4-4 in all road/neutral games this season, including 2-2 in true road games.  That includes an ugly 65-86 road loss to West Virginia in their last road contest, and I believe another beatdown can be expected in this one.

Kansas is a perfect 8-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 17.8 points per game.  It has beaten some good teams at home too in the likes of Florida (71-65), UNLV (76-61) and Oklahoma State (67-57).  The Jayhawks are 5-0 in their last five home meetings with the Sooners, outscoring them by 17.2 points per game on average.  Oklahoma hasn't won in Lawrence since 1993 as it is 0-13 in the last 13 meetings at Allen Fieldhouse, and 7-44 overall there.

Kansas is 9-1 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last two seasons.  The Jayhawks are 15-4 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last three seasons.  Kansas is 24-10-1 ATS in its last 35 vs. Big 12 foes.  The Jayhawks are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games following a S.U. loss.  Roll with Kansas Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Bucks UNDER 199

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight based on the way that both of these teams have been playing coming in.  I don't see either reaching 100 points in this one.

Milwaukee is a perfect 11-0 to the UNDER in its last 11 games overall.  All 11 of those games saw 198 or fewer combined points as well.  The Bucks and their opponents are combining to average 182.3 points per game in their last 11 games, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 199.

Toronto is 3-0 to the UNDER in its last three games overall where it has scored 100 or fewer points in all three.  It combined with Philadelphia for 184, with Atlanta for 199, and with New Orleans for 188.  Neither of these teams are lighting it up offensively as the Bucks have scored 98 or fewer in 10 of their last 11 games as well.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Raptors last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 27-11-1 in Bucks last 39 games following a win.  The UNDER is 14-2 in Bucks last 16 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Milwaukee.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Bulls/Cavaliers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -3

I have successfully backed the Cleveland Cavaliers in each of their last two games.  They have come through with two of their better performances of the season by sweeping the Lakers (107-100) and the Clippers (126-121) at the Staples Center to conclude their five-game road trip out West.

After missing eight games due to injury where the Cavaliers went 1-7, Lebron James has returned for each of the last three games, and it's no surprise that they have turned it around.  They are 20-12 in games that James plays this season, compared to 1-8 without him.

Now, the Cavaliers return home tonight and are showing excellent value as only 3-point favorites over the Chicago Bulls.  They have had two days off in between games so they'll be well-rested and ready to go.  These Cleveland fans will be giving them a warm welcome with the excitement of James being back in the lineup for his first home game since December 28th.

Chicago comes into this game playing its worst basketball of the season.  It is 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall.  It has ugly home losses to Utah (77-97), Orlando (114-121), Washington (99-105) and Atlanta (99-107), as well as a blowout road loss to Washington (86-102) during this stretch.  Its only two wins have come against Milwaukee and Boston.

While Derrick Rose and his injury status gets most of the attention for the Bulls, I would argue that Joakim Noah is Chicago's most important player.  He does all the dirty work and makes all of the hussle plays for the Bulls.  Without him, they are a much worse defensive team, and that has really shown here of late.

Noah (ankle) left the Washington game at halftime three games ago, and the Bulls would up allowing 61 points in the second half.  They also allowed 103 points to Boston and 107 to Atlanta in their two games without Noah since.  They are giving up an average of 108.3 points per game in their last four.  Noah remains out with that same ankle injury.

The Bulls are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Chicago is 2-7 ATS in its last nine vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The Bulls are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on one days' rest.  The favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series.  Bet the Cavaliers Monday.

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Texas -3

Now back to full strength with the healthy return of guard Isaiah Taylor (11.1 ppg, 2.9 apg), the Texas Longhorns are one of the best teams in the country.  They did not play all that well without Taylor, who has missed 10 games this year, but they are coming off their best performance of the season and it's only going to continue.

Texas (13-4) bounced back from two straight ugly losses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State with a resounding 77-50 home victory over the West Virginia Mountaineers.  They held the Mountaineers to just 24.1% shooting and outrebounded them 44-32 for the game.

TCU (14-3) is certainly one of the most improved teams in the country.  However, the Horned Frogs benefited from playing a very easy non-conference schedule, where they went 13-0.  It has been a completely different story in Big 12 play as they have gone just 1-3 with their only victory coming against lowly Texas Tech.  They lost to WVU (67-78) and Baylor (59-66) at home, as well as KSU (53-58) on the road.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  Texas is a perfect 6-0 straight up in its last six meetings with TCU dating back to 2008 with all six victories coming by 5 points or more, including three by double-digits.  The Longhorns swept the season series last year winning 66-54 at home and 59-54 on the road.  With all five starters back for Texas, I look for the one-sided nature of this series to continue tonight.

The one area of this game that is going to be the biggest difference is rebounding.  Texas is one of the best rebounding teams in the country  with a +12.2 rebounding margin on the season.  They have a +4.7 margin in Big 12 play.  Well, TCU is not a great rebounding team as it has  a -4.8 rebounding margin in Big 12 action this season.  The Longhorns will dominate this game with their length and athleticism on the interior.

TCU is 1-9 ATS in home games after scoring 25 points or less in the first half of its last game over the past three seasons.  The Horned Frogs are 0-7 ATS in home games after a combined score of 125 or fewer points in two straight games over the last three seasons.  The Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Horned Frogs are 22-50 ATS in their last 72 home games.  Take Texas Monday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +13.5

The Denver Nuggets have really turned their season around here of late by winning five of their last seven games overall.  They have beaten Memphis (114-85) and Dallas (114-107) at home, while blowing out Minnesota (110-101) and Sacramento (118-108) on the road during this stretch.

However, the Nuggets will be coming into this game highly motivated for a victory following back-to-back losses to the Mavericks and Timberwolves.  That ugly loss to Minnesota last time out has them undervalued coming into this game, but it was a clear letdown spot for them after playing Dallas and with Golden State on deck.  They were looking ahead to this game against the Warriors.

Due to having the best record in the NBA, the Warriors are getting a ton of respect from the oddsmakers at this point in the season. It's to the point where they are overvalued tonight after covering the spread in seven of their last nine games overall with one push. This is also a tired team right now as the Warriors will be playing their 5th game in 7 days.

The two things that really stood out to me about this game is how tough the Nuggets have played the Warriors recently, and how much success the road team has had.  Indeed, the road team has won four straight meetings.  Also, each of the last six meetings have been decided by 8 or fewer points.

Plays against home teams (GOLDEN STATE) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more are 30-10 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Denver is 36-19 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 103 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Nuggets Monday.

20* Colts/Pats AFC Championship No-Brainer on Indianapolis +7

There is going to be a lot made of the Patriots blowing out the Colts in their recent meetings leading up to this game.  They have won five straight meetings with the Colts, including their last three by 22, 21 and 35 points, respectively.  That includes a 42-20 road win over Indianapolis back on November 16th of this year.  Well, that was a 28-20 game with less than nine minutes remaining before the Patriots tacked on two late touchdowns to pull away.

These aren't the same Colts that have been pushovers against the Patriots in years' past.  They were very fortunate to make the playoffs the previous two years under Andrew Luck as they simply were fortunate in close games to overcome their lack of dominant statistics.  However, now they have the statistics to match their brilliant 13-5 record this year, and there's no denying that they belong in the AFC Championship.

Indeed, Indianapolis ranked 3rd in the league in yardage differential this season.  It outgained teams by an average of 63.9 yards per game this year.  Only the Seahawks and Broncos were better.  The Patriots, on the other hand, haven't been near as dominant as their 13-4 record would suggest.  They rank just 10th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 21.4 yards per game.

New England has shown the last three weeks that is is extremely vulnerable.  It has gone 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall.  It only won 17-16 at the New York Jets as 9.5-point favorites in Week 16.  It lost at home to Buffalo 9-17 despite being 4.5-point favorites in Week 17.  Then, last week, the Patriots needed to erase two 14-point deficits to come from behind to beat the Ravens 35-31 as 7-point home favorites.

Indianapolis, on the other hand, comes into this game playing its best football of the season.  It has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall.  It won 27-10 at Tennessee in Week 17 as 7-point favorites in a game where it could have rested its starters, but elected not to to try and gain some momentum coming into the playoffs.  That has proven to be a great move by head coach Chuck Pagano.

The Colts have been mighty impressive in their two playoff games.  They beat the Bengals 26-10 at home as 3.5-points favorites, outgaining them 482-254 for the game, or by 228 total yards.  Then, last week, they went into Denver and came away with a 24-13 victory as 9.5-point underdogs.  They outgained the Broncos 364-288 for the game, or by 76 total yards.

Indianapolis ranked 3rd in the league in total offense during the regular season, averaging 406.6 yards per game.  Andrew Luck is on the verge of becoming the best quarterback in the NFL.  He completed 61.7% of his passes for 4,761 yards with 40 touchdowns and 16 picks during the regular season.  Luck went 31 of 44 for 376 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals, and then 27 of 43 for 265 yards with two touchdowns and two picks against the Broncos in the playoffs.

While Luck and the offense are the biggest reason the Colts are one of the best teams in the NFL, the improvement by the defense this season is a close second.  The Colts were a competent defense during the regular season, giving up just 342.7 yards per game to rank 11th in total defense.  They have been at their best here of late, giving up an average of 244.7 yards per game in their last three games overall. 

This stop unit is fully capable of slowing down the Patriots, who have only averaged 304.3 yards per game in their last three games.  What I really like about the Colts is their pass defense, which will be huge in this game against a Patriots team that only rushes for 102 yards per game but throws for 266.  Indianapolis has allowed a ridiculously-low 155.5 passing yards per game in its last six games overall.

Pagano is 6-0 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games as the coach of Indianapolis.  Bill Belichick is 2-9 ATS as a No. 1 seed in the playoffs as the coach of New England.  Belichick is 0-6 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards in his last game as the coach of the Patriots.  New England is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 playoff games.  The Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last five Conference Championship Games.  Indianapolis is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. AFC foes.  Take the Colts in the AFC Championship Sunday.

20* College Hoops DOG OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +22.5

Fans of the Virginia Tech Hokies have to be happy with the outlook of the program.  Former Marquette head coach Buzz Williams was hired to turn around the program.  It's only a matter of time before he does, and I have no doubt the Hokies are only going to improve as the season goes on.

Virginia Tech is off to just an 8-8 start this season, but it has been competitive in most of its losses.  In fact, all but one of its eight losses came by 19 points or less, including four by a combined 9 points as it has simply been on the wrong end of several close defeats.

The Hokies have put forth some promising efforts this year that give me little doubt that they can stay within 22.5 of North Carolina.  They only lost 58-61 at Penn State as 8.5-point dogs, lost 66-68 as 9.5-point home dogs to Syracuse, and lost 63-78 as 22-point road dogs to Louisville.

North Carolina (13-4) is one of the better teams in the ACC, but asking it to win by 23-plus to cover this spread is asking too much. The Tar Heels have certainly been vulnerable at home this year.  They lost to Iowa 55-60 as 7.5-point favorites, and lost to Notre Dame 70-71 as 8-point favorites.

This is a massive letdown spot for the Tar Heels.  They are coming off three straight huge games against Notre Dame, Louisville and NC State.  They did beat Louisville (72-71) at home and NC State (81-79) on the road, but only by a combined three points.  After playing two ranked teams and their in-state rivals, the Tar Heels won't be able to match the intensity they played with in those three contests against VA Tech.

The last two years, North Carolina was expected to roll a Virginia Tech team that was worse than it is this year.  The Hokies went just 9-22 last year, including 2-16 in ACC play, yet they nearly upset the Tar Heels as double-digit dogs in both meetings.  They lost 60-72 (OT) as 14.5-point road dogs in 2014, and lost 56-60 as 10.5-point home dogs in 2014.

This has been a common theme in all recent meetings as the Hokies are 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with North Carolina.  The Tar Heels are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. ACC foes.  UNC is 11-27 ATS in its last 38 Sunday games.  Roll with Virginia Tech Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks -7

The Seattle Seahawks continued their dominant play with a 31-17 win over the Carolina Panthers in the Divisional Round.  They have now gone a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall with all seven victories coming by double-digits, and by an average of 15.6 points per game.  They are the best team in the National Football League, period.  That shows up in the numbers as well.

The Seahawks ranked 1st in the league in yardage differential during the regular season.  They outgained teams by a whopping 108.7 yards per game.  Their offense was better than it got credit for, ranking 9th in the NFL at 375.8 yards per game.  Their defense was once again the best in the NFL, giving up league lows of 15.9 points and 267.1 yards per game.  In fact, they were the only defense to allow less than 300 yards per game this season.

We're looking at what might be the best defense in NFL history.  The Seahawks have given up a total of 56 points in their last seven games overall for an average of just 8.0 points per game.  They have held five of those seven opponents to 7 points or fewer.  They have the best secondary in the NFL as well, one that gives up just 185.6 passing yards per game.

That's going to be huge against the Green Bay Packers, who rely heavily on throwing the football to move it on offense.  Well, Aaron Rodgers is playing with a torn calf muscle, and he was clearly hobbled against the Cowboys last week.  He only practiced one day in two weeks leading up to that game, and he didn't run until pregame warm-ups. 

Rodgers not having his mobility gives the Packers no chance of defeating the Seahawks this week, or even hanging with them.  Seattle has a much better pass rush than Dallas did.  Rodgers did put up good numbers against the Cowboys, but the Cowboys were one of the most overrated defenses in the league this season.  Seattle is not overrated as it has no weaknesses.

Green Bay has just been a mediocre road team this year.  It is 9-0 at home, but just 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS on the road where it is actually getting outscored by an average of 2.1 points per game.  All four of its road losses came by 8 points or more as well.  It lost at Seattle 16-36, at Detroit 7-19, at New Orleans 23-44, and at Buffalo 13-21.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series between Green Bay and Seattle in recent years.  In fact, the home team is 8-1 SU & 5-2-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  As stated before, Seattle won 36-16 at home over Green Bay in the season opener.  This was a complete mismatch as the Seahawks outgained the Packers 398-255 for the game, or by 133 total yards.  Rodgers went 23 of 33 passing for just 189 yards with one touchdown and one interception in the loss.

The Seahawks rushed for 207 yards in the win over the Packers and should have another big day on the ground in the rematch.  They rank 1st in the league in rushing by a wide margin, averaging 172.6 rushing yards per game during the regular season, which was 25.5 yards more than second place.  They also average a ridiculous 5.2 yards per carry against teams that only give up 4.2 per carry.

The Packers have allowed at least 108 rushing yards in 13 of their 17 games this season.  They ranked 23rd against the run during the regular season, and they surrendered 145 yards on the ground to the Cowboys last week.  They give up an average of 121 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry this season against teams that average 112 yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  Marshawn Lynch is licking his chops at another opportunity to face the Packers Sunday.

Seattle is currently on a 25-2 streak in its last 27 home games.  The Seahawks have gone 8-1 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 11.1 points per game.  The 12th man is the real real, and Seattle knew how important it would be to get home-field advantage when it went on its huge run in winning 10 of its last 11 games overall.

I know it's a small factor, but it's also worth noting that the Seahawks have an extra day of rest heading into this game.  They played on Saturday against the Panthers, while the Packers played on Sunday against the Cowboys.  It's certainly an advantage for the Seahawks to get that extra day of rest, especially because they were able to watch the Packers play on Sunday to scout them an extra time.  Also, Rodgers getting one less day to heal is big as well.  He clearly won't be anywhere near 100% for this game.

Seattle is 13-2 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt over the last three seasons.  Green Bay is 1-8 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, losing by an average of 12.6 points per game in this spot.  The Seahawks are 10-1 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games over the last two seasons. 

The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS off five or more consecutive wins over the last three years.  Seattle is 6-0 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards per play in two consecutive games over the last two seasons.  The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  These four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing Seattle.  Bet the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +12

The Denver Nuggets (18-21) have no business being double-digits favorites against almost any team in the league, including the Minnesota Timberwolves (6-32).  I'll gladly take the value here and back the 12-point road underdog Timberwolves tonight.

Minnesota has been playing much more competitive basketball here of late.  It has gone 7-4 ATS in its last 11 games overall, yet it continues to get no respect from oddsmakers tonight.  It has not lost any of its last 11 games by more than 15 points, and eight of those have been decided by 12 or fewer.

Denver comes into this game overvalued due to having won five of its last six games overall.  Off an 89-97 loss to Dallas last night, and with a game at Golden State on deck, I look at this as a huge letdown spot for the Nuggets as well.

Both teams are playing the second of a back-to-back, but the Timberwolves are clearly the fresher team.  They had two days off prior to their 99-110 loss to the Suns as 14-point dogs last night.  Plus, this will be just their 3rd game in the past 7 days.  Denver will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days in comparison.

This has been a very closely-contested series between the Nuggets and Timberwolves in recent years.  In fact, five of the last six meetings have been decided by 9 points or fewer, including three by exactly 4 points.  The road team is 22-6-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings.  The Timberwolves are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 trips to Denver.

Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Nuggets are 7-21-2 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Denver is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 games when playing on 0 days' rest.  The Nuggets are 0-8 ATS in home games versus poor teams that are outscored by 6-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  Minnesota is 24-8 ATS revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  Take the Timberwolves Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas -2

The Texas Longhorns were off to a 12-2 start before back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State within the Big 12.  They now come into this game highly motivated for a victory to put an end to this two-game skid when they take on the West Virginia Mountaineers Saturday.

What I really like about this spot is not only the motivation, but also the fact that the Longhorns will be well-rested and ready to go. Their last game was a week ago last Saturday, so they have had six full days to correct their mistakes and prepare for the Mountaineers.

West Virginia, meanwhile, is coming off an 86-65 blowout home win over Oklahoma on Tuesday.  It has had only three days to prepare for Texas.  Plus, that win over a ranked Sooners team sets the Mountaineers up for a letdown spot tonight against Texas as they simply won't be able to match the intensity of the Longhorns given the situation.

Texas won all three meetings with West Virginia last year via blowout with an 80-69 road win, an 88-71 home win, and a 66-49 neutral court win in the Big 12 Tournament.  With all five starters back from last year for the Longhorns, I look for another blowout in this game tonight.

Texas is 17-3 ATS in home games after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread since 1997.  It is coming back to win in this spot by an average of 14.8 points per game.  The Longhorns are clearly undervalued due to their recent stretch of poor play.  Getting them as only 2-point home favorites is a gift.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* Michigan State/Maryland Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan State +2.5

The Michigan State Spartans will be out for revenge on the Maryland Terrapins tonight.  They lost a 66-68 (OT) heartbreaker at home to the Terrapins on December 30th in their Big Ten opener.  I look for them to have their revenge on the road less than three weeks later.

Tom Izzo's teams always seem to get better as the season goes on.  Well, that has been the case again in 2014-15.  After a 9-5 start, the Spartans have reeled off three straight victories within the Big Ten, including a blowout home win over Indiana (70-50), and an impressive road win at Iowa (75-61).

Maryland is one of the most improved teams in the country this season, but it is also overvalued due to its 16-2 start this season.  The Terrapins barely survived in a 73-65 win over Rutgers as 14-point favorites last time out.  They also lost at Illinois 57-64 three games ago.

This is not only a great situation for the Spartans because of the revenge, but also because of the rest.  The Spartans last played on January 11th, while the Terrapins last played on January 14th.  Michigan State has had five days off in between games to get ready for Maryland, while the Terrapins have only had two days off in between their last game against Rutgers.

Michigan State is a perfect 9-0 ATS in road games off a home win over the last two seasons.  Maryland is 1-8 ATS in home games after allowing 65 or fewer points in two straight games over the last three seasons.  The Spartans are 11-2 ATS in road games over the last two years.  The road team is a perfect 5-0 straight up in the last five meetings in this series.  Take Michigan State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Penn State -1.5

With four starters back from last year, I expected the Penn State Nittany Lions to be one of the most improved teams in the country this year.  Well, they have not disappointed up to this point with a 12-5 record.

However, they have yet to win a Big Ten game amidst a brutal opening schedule.  They are 0-4 in conference action with three losses by single-digits and three of their first four games on the road.  The only exception was a 72-89 loss at Wisconsin as 18.5-point dogs in which they covered.  You can bet they will be highly motivated for a victory when they return home today.

The Purdue Boilermakers are an improved team as well this year, but they are just 10-7 and getting too much respect from oddsmakers as only 1.5-point road underdogs in this one.

Purdue is 0-2 in true road games this season, while Penn State is 7-1 in home games.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won six of the last seven meetings between the Boilermakers and Nittany Lions.  The home team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The Boilermakers are 4-16 ATS in Saturday games over the last three seasons.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +13

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are off to a respectable 10-8 start this season despite playing a very difficult schedule.  I've been very impressed with this team in Big Ten play to start the year.

Rutgers is off to a 2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS start within the Big Ten.  Its last two performances show that it can play with anyone.  It upset Wisconsin 67-62 at home as 15-point underdogs two games ago.  Then, it gave Maryland everything it wanted in a 65-73 road loss as 14-point dogs last time out.

Minnesota, on the other hand, is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  It is off to an 11-7 start this season, which is poor when you consider the expectations the Golden Gophers had coming into the year.  Well, they have gotten a reality check in Big Ten play.

Indeed, the Golden Gophers are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in Big Ten action this season.  They lost at Purdue 68-72, lost at Maryland 58-70, lost at home to Ohio State 72-74, lost at Michigan 57-62, and lost at home to Iowa 75-77.  This team is really lacking in confidence right now, and they do not have the skill to put away Rutgers by 13-plus points today.

Richard Pitino is 0-6 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Minnesota.  When these upset losses happen, Pitino just hasn't been able to rally the troops at all.  In fact, it has gone the other way as they are getting outscored by an average of 3.3 points per game in their next game.  Roll with Rutgers Saturday.

20* Cavaliers/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland +8

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 1-8 without Lebron James while averaging 91.0 points per game, but with James they are 19-12 and averaging 102.6 points per game.  James just recently returned to the lineup for their last two games.

He hasn't missed a beat by totaling 69 pionts, 12 rebounds and 10 assists while shooting 7-for-18 from 3-point range since returning.  He has averaged 29.2 points, 8.5 boards and 7.8 assists in his last six road games against the Clippers.

I know this is the second of a back-to-back for the Cavaliers, which is usually a tough spot, but the re-energized James will help them get over that.  Plus, they don't have to travel at all as they played the Lakers in the Staples Center last night, and now they play the Clippers in the Staples Center.  No travel minimizes the effect of a back-to-back situation.

The Cavs are simply undervalued due to going 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, while the Clippers are overvalued due to going 5-2 ATS in their last seven games, including a win at Portland last time out.  There is certainly some line value here as the oddsmakers have tacked on a few too many points to the Clippers' side.  Cleveland is 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Los Angeles.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -4

Getting the San Antonio Spurs as only 4-point home favorites over the Portland Trail Blazers is an absolute gift from oddsmakers tonight.  I'll take advantage and back them at a great price as you'll rarely find the Spurs as this small of home favorites.

The Spurs are starting to gain some traction as they have won five of their last seven games overall.  Now, they get a healthy Kawhi Leonard returning to the lineup after missing the past 15 games with a torn ligament in his hand.  He is arguably the Spurs' best player, and it's no wonder they have kind of struggled this year without him.

San Antonio is in a massive revenge spot here.  The Spurs have lost each of their first two meetings of the season with the Blazers, including a 119-129 (3 OT) home loss back on December 19th in their last meeting.  Neither Tony Parker nor Leonard played in that game and they still took the Blazers to three overtimes.  Leonard and Parker are now both healthy this time around.  Also, both Parker and Tim Duncan missed the Spurs' 95-108 road loss to the Blazers in their first meeting.

The Spurs are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games playing on one days rest.  San Antonio is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five visits to San Antonio.  Roll with the Spurs Friday.

20* Warriors/Thunder ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +2.5

Rarely will you ever get the opportunity to back the Oklahoma City Thunder as home underdogs.  I'll gladly take advantage tonight as the Thunder take on the Golden State Warriors, who are simply overvalued due to having the best record in the NBA right now.

Yes, this is a second of a back-to-back situation for the Thunder after an ugly loss to the Houston Rockets last night.  However, the Thunder came into that game on five days' rest and were probably a little rusty.  After having five days off prior to that game, fatigue will not be a factor tonight.

That's especially the case considering this is a huge revenge situation for the Thunder.  They have lost each of their first three meetings of the season with the Warriors, so they will be looking to avoid the four-game sweep. 

Keep in mind that they did not have Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook for the first meeting in an 86-91 home loss.  Durant scored 30 points in the first half of the second meeting before going out with an ankle injury in a 114-109 home victory for the Clippers.  The Thunder are finally back to full strength now with Durant and Westbrook.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-2 straight up in the last 11 meetings.  Oklahoma City is 63-34 ATS in its last 97 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Thunder are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Golden State is 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including 1-5 ATS in its last six visits to OKC.  Take the Thunder Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Toronto Raptors +1

Due to having the best record in the Eastern Conference at 31-8, and entering this game on a 10-game winning streak, the Atlanta Hawks are overvalued tonight as road favorites against the Toronto Raptors.  They have also covered nine straight, which has the betting public all over them, and now it's time to fade.

The Toronto Raptors have the third-best record in the East with a 26-12 mark.  They just had second-leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg) return last time out in a 100-84 home win over the 76ers.  DeRozan has missed 21 games this year, and they've still managed to keep it together, but they've clearly been better with him than without him.

The Raptors come into this game undervalued due to having lost five of their last seven games overall while going 1-6 ATS in the process.  The loss of DeRozan was finally catching up to them during this stretch, but now that he's back, look for the Raptors to get back to playing the same dominant basketball they were before it.

Toronto has clearly had Atlanta's number.  The Raptors are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Hawks.  They won 96-86 as 7.5-point home favorite in their final meeting of 2013-14.  They won 109-102 as 4.5-point home favorites in their first meeting of 2014-15.  They also won 126-115 as 3.5-point road favorites in their most recent meeting with the Hawks this season.

The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with the Raptors.  Look for Toronto to come out with an inspired effort tonight to try and turn around its fortunes now that DeRozan is back and healthy.  Take the Raptors Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +6.5

The Orlando Magic enter this game playing their best basketball of the season.  I have successfully backed them in back-to-back upsets, and I'm going to back them again tonight showing excellent value as 6.5-point home dogs to the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Magic put an end to a six-game losing streak with a 121-114 road win at Chicago as 11.5-point underdogs, then followed that up with a 120-113 home win as 9-point dogs to the Houston Rockets.

The key to the Magic's success is that they have used their young guards in Victor Oladipo and Elfred Payton to push the tempo as this youthful team is clearly at their best when they get out in the open floor.  They have scored 120.5 points per game in their last two wins.

"I think it took time but we've figured out how to play," guard Victor Oladipo said. "Now that we've figured it out, we can't change it."  Oladipo scored a season-high 33 versus Chicago and 32 against the Rockets.  Nikola Vucevic, one of the most underrated centers in the league, has been hot with averages of 30.7 points, 13.0 rebounds and 64.0 percent shooting over the past three games.

The Memphis Grizzlies are a much better home team than they are a road team.  They are 12-7 on the road this season scoring 97.8 points and allowing 97.6 points per game.  Now, Mike Conley is battling injuries to both of his ankles, and had to leave the team's win over the Celtics last time out with an ankle injury. 

After seeing him in a walking boot after the game, there's a good chance he doesn't play tonight even thought he's listed as questionable.  Conley is the Grizzlies' floor general and their most important player.  If he doesn't play, it's going to be an added bonus, but even if he does he'll be far from 100% as both ankles are bothering him right now.

The Grizzlies are 0-6 ATS in their last six Friday games.  Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.  The Grizzlies are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Magic are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Orlando is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.  It has proven time and time again that it can play with the league's best teams.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Indiana Pacers +1.5

Yes, the Detroit Pistons have been playing some of the best basketball in the league here of late, and I've backed them quite a bit.  However, once that news becomes public, then teams like the Pistons tend to be way overvalued, which I believe to be the case tonight and in the near future.

The Pistons have won nine of their last 11 games overall.  They had won seven straight and covered seven in a row before the odds started to catch up to them.  They are now just 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall as they have been overvalued.  They lost 94-105 at home to the Pelicans last time out as 4-point favorites.  Just like they shouldn't have been favored over the Pelicans, they should not be favored against the Pacers tonight.

Indiana has managed to hold it together this season despite all of the injuries it was dealt with a 15-25 record up to this point.  Now, most of their team is healthy, and the Pacers are going to be a tough out going forward.  They come into this game undervalued off back-to-back upset losses to Philadelphia and Minnesota.

The Pacers will be hungry for a win after this recent stretch, where they've gone 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They also come into this game well-rested and ready to go.  They have had two days off since that loss to the Timberwolves, and they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  Detroit, on the other hand, will be playing its 7th game in 11 days.

The Pistons are 3-11 ATS off a home loss this season.  Detroit is 4-15 ATS off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. loss.  Detroit is 17-36 ATS in its last 53 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Indiana is 8-2 straight up in its last 10 meetings with Detroit.  The Pistons are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 visits to Indiana.  Roll with the Pacers Friday.

15* Gonzaga/Pepperdine Late-Night BAILOUT on Pepperdine +12.5

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are a very public team due to their successes in the NCAA Tournament over the last several years, and their 16-1 record and No. 3 national ranking in 2014-15.  They are consistently overvalued as a result as the public just backs them blindly.

Gonzaga has no business laying 12.5-point on the road to Pepperdine tonight.  The Bulldogs have dominated at home this season, but they have been much more shaky on the road, and asking them to win by 13-plus points against an improved Waves squad is asking too much.

Gonzaga has played eight games away from home this season.  All eight of those games resulted in wins by 13 points or less.  They beat Georgia (88-76), St. Johns (73-66) and Cal Poly-SLO (63-50) all on neutral courts, and UCLA (87-74), BYU (87-80), San Diego (60-48) and Portland (87-75) on the road.  They also lost at Arizona (63-66).

Pepperdine is one of the most improved teams in the country at 11-5 this season.  As a result, the Waves have been one of the most underrated teams in the land as well, as evidenced by their 11-3 ATS record in their 14 lined games this year.  Yet, they are still getting no respect from the betting public tonight.

The Waves come into this game playing their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They won 71-61 as 7.5-point home favorites over Pacific, 67-61 as 15-point road dogs at BYU, and 59-47 as 4-point road dogs at San Diego. 

That win over BYU on the road shows that the Waves can play with anyone in the country.  Plus, they have even been competitive in their losses.  All five of Pepperdine's losses have come by 11 points or less, which includes a 61-72 loss at Iowa as 16-point dogs, a 74-81 loss at Arizona State as 8-point dogs, and a 63-65 loss to Richmond on a neutral court as 5-point dogs.

Gonzaga is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 road games off two straight home wins by 10 points or more.  The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  The Wave are 9-0 ATS after having won three of their last four games over the past two seasons.  Pepperdine is 7-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last two seasons.  These two trends combine for a 16-0 system backing the Waves.  Take Pepperdine Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +15

The Wisconsin Badgers are overvalued due to their 15-2 start and their No. 7 national ranking.  They should not be laying 15 points to a Nebraska team that beat them 77-68 at home last year and returned four starters from that squad.

Wisconsin also has four starters back this year, but two of those are banged up.  Frank Kaminsky (concussion) is expected to return tonight after sitting out a 62-67 loss at Rutgers as 15-point favorites last time out.  Starting point guard Traevon Jackson (9.4 ppg, 2.9 apg) injured his ankle in that loss to Rutgers and is out indefinitely.

The Badgers have been overvalued here recently and they continue to be tonight.  They are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They only beat Buffalo by 12 as 22.5-point home favorites, Penn State by 17 as 18.5-point home favorites, Purdue by 7 as 16.5-point home favorites, and then lost to Rutgers 62-67 as 15-point road favorites.

With four starters back from a team that went to the NCAA Tournament last year, expectations were high for Nebraska.  Well, the Huskers got off to a slow start and have been undervalued ever since.  They have dealt with injuries all year, and they are now finally healthy and playing their best basketball of the season.

Indeed, the Huskers have been much more competitive in Big Ten play.  They did open with a 65-70 loss to Indiana as a 4-point home favorite, and then lost 59-70 at Iowa as 9.5-point underdogs in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate.  They have rebounded with back-to-back blowout wins over Rutgers (65-49) as 10-point favorites, and Illinois (53-43) as 3-point favorites.

Nebraska is 14-2 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or worse after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.  Wisconsin is 2-9 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or worse over the last two seasons.  The Badgers are 2-10 ATS in home games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80% over the last three seasons.  The Huskers are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 vs. Big Ten foes.  The Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take Nebraska Thursday.

20* Thunder/Rockets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +1.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder (18-19) are on a mission to make the playoffs in the Western Conference.  They know that they have to give 100% effort from here on out to get there, which is going to make them an enticing bet the rest of the way.  You certainly won't be questioning their effort tonight.

It's rare that you see an NBA team get five days off in between games.  Well, that's the case for the Thunder tonight, who last played on January 9th in a 99-94 win over the Jazz.  That means they have had five full days to prepare for the Houston Rockets and to rest up.  I suspect you will see their best effort of the season tonight as a result.

Meanwhile, the situation could not be much worse for the Houston Rockets.  This is a tired team right now as the Rockets will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days, and their 6th game in 9 days.  The Rockets simply won't be able to match the intensity that the Thunder play with tonight because they will be too tired to do so.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 39-13 (75%) ATS since 1996. 

The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  They have also won 4 of the last 6.  They did lose 65-69 to the Rockets at home in their first and only meeting of 2014-15, but they were playing without Westbrook and Durant.  They are now healthy and back to being one of the best teams in the West.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Auburn +15.5

These are two teams with identical 9-6 records squaring off tonight as the Auburn Tigers visit the Florida Gators in SEC play.  There is not 15.5 points that separates these two teams even when you give Florida home-court advantage.

Auburn is in transition mode under first-year head coach Bruce Pearl, who was the former Tennessee boss.  It was going to take some time for the Tigers to gel, and there were some very ugly results in the early going.  However, this team is playing their best basketball of the season entering this matchup.

Indeed, the Tigers are 6-1 in their last seven games overall while going 3-1-1 ATS in their lined games.  Their only loss during this stretch came at Vanderbilt 52-64 as 7.5-point underdogs.  They have won three of their games by 16 points or more, while also beating Xavier 89-88 and Missouri 85-79 during this stretch.

Florida is overvalued due to its name and program history.  The Gators are in rebuilding mode this year under Billy Donovan and are a borderline NCAA Tournament team.  With six losses already, including home losses to Miami & UConn, they clearly aren't as strong as they have been in year's past.

Florida is 1-8 ATS after covering two of its last three games against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Gators are 0-6 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. win.  The Gators are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following a win.  The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Gators.  Bet Auburn Thursday.

15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Rice +17

The Rice Owls are showing excellent value tonight as 17-point road underdogs to the Old Dominion Monarchs.  The betting public is all over Old Dominion and its 13-2 record, while ignoring Rice and its 4-10 record, providing us with some great line value on the road underdogs in this one.

Rice may be just 4-10, but it has been much more competitive than that record would indicate, which is evidenced by its 6-2 ATS mark on the season.  In fact, all 10 of Rice's losses have come by 13 points or less this season, including seven of those by single-digits.

One performance that really stands out to me and shows what the Owls are capable of was their 55-66 loss at Texas as 27.5-point underdogs.  They stayed within 11 points of the Longhorns on the road, who are one of the best teams in the country.  They can certainly stay within 17 of Old Dominion on the road tonight.

Yes, Old Dominion is a quality team that will have a chance to win Conference USA and make the NCAA Tournament.  However, only four of its 13 wins have come by more than 17 points.  Those were against UNC-Wilmington, North Carolina A&T, Mount St. Mary's and Marshall.

These teams met last year in Old Dominion with the Monarchs once again getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers.  They were 10.5-point favorites over the Owls, and they only won 55-51 to fail to cover the spread.  Now they are 17-point home favorites a year later, which is way too much.

Old Dominion is 1-10 ATS off a road loss to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  The Monarchs are 4-13 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last three seasons.  The Owls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Considering Rice has played 14 games this year and hasn't lost once by more than 13 points, that's a 14-0 system pertaining to tonight's 17-point spread backing the Owls.  Roll with Rice Thursday.

15* SDSU/Wyoming ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Wyoming -1.5

The Wyoming Cowboys are a team that just doesn't get the attention they deserve.  Yes, they just recently moved into the Top 25 after their 15-2 start this season, but the betting public and thus the oddsmakers still don't give the Cowboys the respect they deserve.

Wyoming's only two losses this season came on the road to SMU (53-66) and California (42-45), which are two very good teams and it should not be ashamed of those losses one bit.  At home, it has been a completely different story for the Cowboys.

Indeed, Wyoming is a perfect 12-0 at home this season.  It is outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.5 points per game at home this year.  It is coming off impressive back-to-back wins at Colorado State (60-54) as 5-point dogs, and at home against Boise State (65-54) as 7-point favorites.

San Diego State is 12-4 this season and clearly overvalued due to what it has done in recent years.  Well, these aren't the same Aztecs this season.  They are 0-3 in true road games this year with losses at Washington (36-49) as 1.5-point favorites, at Cincinnati (62-71) as 2-point dogs, and at Fresno State (57-59) as 8.5-point favorites.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Wyoming and San Diego State.  The home team has won four straight and nine of the last 11 meetings.  The Cowboys have pulled off the upset in each of their last two home meetings with the Aztecs.  They won 68-62 at home as 4-point dogs to SDSU last year, and 58-45 as 2-point home dogs in 2013.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN DIEGO ST) - poor three point shooting team (32% or worse) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.

San Diego State is one of the worst shooting teams in the country.  It shoots just 40.4% from the field and 28.0% from the 3-point stripe.  Wyoming shoots 50.4% from the field while allowing just 39.8% shooting and 52.2 points per game to opponents.  The Cowboys are one of the most efficient teams in the country on both ends of the floor.

The Aztecs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  San Diego State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win.  Wyoming is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Wyoming Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern +2

Illinois came into the season as one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They weren't very good last year, but they returned five starters this year, which is why expectations were so high.  Well, the Illini are just 11-6 this season.  They don't have many good wins at all, either.

Illinois is 0-4 in true road games this season with losses to Miami (61-70), Michigan (65-73), Ohio State (61-77) and Nebraska (43-53).  I look for it to drop to 0-5 on the road this season against a Northwestern team that is 10-6 and underrated in terms of the betting public and the oddsmakers.

The Illini did return five starters this year, but they are down to three now.  That's because Tracy Abrams is out for the season.  Also, their best player in Rayvonte Rice (17.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg), who leads the team in points and rebounds, is out for the next four-to-six weeks with a broken hand suffered in practice recently.  This team just isn't that good without Rice.

The Wildcats had won four straight prior to their back-to-back losses to two of the best teams in the Big Ten in Wisconsin and Michigan State.  Well, they actually went on the road and gave the Spartans all they could handle as 14-point underdogs.  They forced overtime and eventually lost 77-84.

Northwestern has played Illinois very tough in recent meetings.  In fact, it has actually won four of the last six meetings with one of the two losses coming by a single point.  It won 49-43 at home last year as 5.5-point underdogs.  The Wildcats also pulled off a pair of upsets with a 68-54 win as 10-point road dogs in 2013 and a 74-70 win as 6-point road dogs in 2012.

The Fighting Illini are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Illinois is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games.  The Fighting Illini are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Northwestern is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  These last four trends combine for a 21-1 system backing the Wildcats.  Take Northwestern Wednesday.

20* Wizards/Bulls ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on UNDER 194.5

The Chicago Bulls and Washington Wizards square off tonight in their 3rd meeting of the 2014-15 season.  They played on December 23rd and January 9th, so this will actually be their 3rd meeting in three weeks.  They are obviously very familiar with one another, and that familiarity will lead to a defensive battle tonight on ESPN.

After all, it has been mostly defensive battles when these teams have gotten together here of late.  Indeed, each of the last four meetings between the Bulls and Wizards have seen 190 or fewer combined points.  They have combined for 188, 190, 144, and 187 points in their last four meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of 177.3 points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.5.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace.  Chicago ranks 17th in pace at 96.1 possessions per game, while Washington ranks 19th at 95.6 possessions per contest.  The key to their success has been defense as both rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency.  Washington ranks 6th giving up 100.5 points per 100 possessions, while Chicago ranks 10th at 101.7.

The Bulls are coming off their worst defensive performance of the season in a 114-121 loss to Orlando last time out.  You can bet that Tom Thibodeau has been in their ears about defense, because he cannot stand to give up that many points as he's a defensive-minded guy.  Look for the Bulls to come out with a huge effort defensively tonight, especially after losing to the Wizards 86-102 less than a week ago.

The UNDER is 20-8-1 in Wizards last 29 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 10-3-1 in Wizards last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Bulls last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 24-9 in the last 33 meetings.  The Bulls and Wizards have combined for less than 195 points in 17 of their last 20 meetings, making for a 17-3 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +9

The Orlando Magic come into this game way undervalued.  They have lost six of their last seven games overall to drop to 14-27 on the season.  Well, they are coming off one of their best performances of the season in a 121-114 win at Chicago, and they will be playing with a ton of confidence tonight because of it.

Houston comes into this game way overvalued due to having gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  Well, those four wins came against Cleveland (without Lebron), New York, Utah and Brooklyn (without Deron Williams).  With a game against Oklahoma City on deck tomorrow, the Rockets could easily be overlooking the Magic tonight.

Victor Oladipo had a season-high 33 points and Nikola Vucevic added 33 with 11 rebounds against the Bulls as Orlando recorded its highest scoring total of the season. "When we're aggressive on defense and we're pushing the pace on offense, that gives us more opportunities to score more points," reserve Willie Green told the team's official website. "Vooch and Vic carried us offensively and everybody else just played their role. For us, it's just about us needing to score more points."

The Magic are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Orlando is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  This team has shown that it can play with some of the best teams in the league this season.  The Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Magic.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech +4

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-6) are primed for a big performance against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish tonight.  I look for them to not only cover this 4-point spread, but to likely win this game outright with all the factors that are in play coming in.

Georgia Tech will be highly motivated for a victory due to losing three straight to open ACC play to fall to 0-3 within the conference. All three losses came by 7 points or less at Notre Dame (76-83, OT) as 11.5-point dogs, versus Syracuse (45-46) as 4-point dogs, and at Wake Forest (69-76) as 3-point dogs.

Obviously, after already losing to Notre Dame in overtime in the ACC opener on January 3rd on the road, the Yellow Jackets are going to be out for revenge in the rematch less than two weeks later.  They are simply going to want this game more.

Notre Dame (15-2) is overvalued due to its fast start to the season.  It is in a prime letdown spot after a 56-62 loss to No. 2 ranked Virginia on Saturday.  Look for the Irish to suffer a hangover from that crushing defeat.

One factor that is getting overlooked here is that Notre Dame forward Zach Auguste has been suspended indefinitely following the Virginia Game.  Auguste is the team's second-leading scorer (14.3 PPG) and second-leading rebounder (6.4 RPG).  He also shoots 65.3% from the field, so his loss is a crushing blow to the Fighting Irish.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is a perfect 4-0 straight up in the last four meetings.  Notre Dame is 6-15 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Irish are 3-12 ATS off a loss over the last two years.  The Yellow Jackets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.   Georgia Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. ACC foes.  Bet Georgia Tech Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavericks/Kings UNDER 213.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings tonight.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in this game, which has been a common theme when these teams have gotten together recently.

Indeed, the UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series.  The Mavericks and Kings have combined for 204, 184, 203 and 210 points in their last four meetings, respectively, and they have not combined for more than 213.5 in any of their last five meetings.  They have averaged 200.3 points per game in their last four meetings, which is roughly 12 points less than tonight's posted total.

The Mavericks have become a much better defensive team since trading for Rajon Rondo.  They have allowed 101 or fewer points in four of their last six games overall.  However, they are certainly a worse offensive team with Rondo.  They have failed to top 100 points in each of their last three games.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Kings last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Mavericks last eight games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Kings last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Jazz UNDER 203

The betting public looks at the Golden State Warriors and is quick to back the overs in their games because of their electrifying duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.  What they fail to realize is that the Warriors have the best record (29-5) in the NBA because of their defense.

Indeed, Golden State ranks 1st in the league in defensive efficiency this season, giving up just 96.2 points per 100 possessions.  Teams are only shooting 41.9% against the Warriors.  Their defense is only going to get better now that Andrew Bogut is back healthy.

The Utah Jazz have been playing tremendous defense here of late.  They have allowed 98 or fewer points in 10 of their last 13 games overall, and 105 or fewer in each of their last 13.  They are allowing just 92.8 points per game in their last 13 contests.  A big reason is the insertion of Rudy Gobert into the starting lineup.  He is a force down low who provides no offense, but a ton of blocks and boards on D.

Nobody is going to mistake the Jazz for a great offensive team.  In fact, they have been pretty terrible on that end of the floor here of late.  They have scored 101 or fewer points in 12 straight games.  The Jazz are only averaging 94.1 pints per game in their last 12 games.  As a result, the UNDER is 10-1 in Utah's last 11 games overall.

This has been a very low-scoring series between the Jazz and Warriors.  They have combined for 190 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings as the UNDER has gone 5-1 during this stretch.  The UNDER is also 8-2 in the last 10 meetings as they have combined for 202 or fewer points in eight of those 10.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - after 3 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more are 28-7 (80%) since 1997.  Utah is 12-2 to the UNDER vs. good defensive teams that allow 43% shooting or worse over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 20-7-1 in the last 28 meetings, including 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings in Utah.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on South Carolina -4

The South Carolina Gamecocks are primed for a big effort tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back losses to Florida and Ole Miss to open SEC play, so they are going to be highly motivated to get their first taste of victory in conference play.

South Carolina has dropped to 9-5 with those two straight losses, but this is still one of the most underrated teams in the country with four starters back from last year.  Wins over the likes of Oklahoma State (75-49), Clemson (68-45) and Iowa State (64-60) certainly show what the Gamecocks are capable of.

Alabama comes into this game way overvalued due to its six-game winning streak and its 2-0 start in SEC play.  Well, this streak has mostly come against a soft schedule with five of six games at home.  Yes, the 56-38 win at Tennessee last time out was impressive, but now the Vols are in a massive letdown spot.

Tennessee plays No. 1 Kentucky on Saturday.  It's only human nature for the Volunteers to be looking ahead to that game against the Wildcats.  They will come into this game overconfident due to their six-game streak, and they will be peaking ahead to Kentucky.  They won't be able to match the intensity of the Gamecocks, who will simply want this one more.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team has won six straight meetings between these teams.  South Carolina is 6-2 at home this season where it is outscoring teams by 17.9 points per game.  Alabama is 1-2 in true road games this year.

Alabama is 2-21 ATS off six or more consecutive since since 1997.  This trend just goes to show you that the Crimson Tide have been overvalued when on extended winning streaks.  Also, the Gamecocks are 6-0 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  Roll with South Carolina Tuesday.

20* Ohio State/Oregon Championship Game No-Brainer on Ohio State +7

While Oregon may be the better team, I just cannot foresee it blowing out Ohio State. The Buckeyes have played their two best games of the year coming into this one as Urban Meyer has his team hitting on all cylinders. They proved that their 59-0 beat down of Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship was no fluke. After outgaining the Badgers by 300 total yards, the Buckeyes really dominated the Crimson Tide in the first round of the four-team playoff.

Alabama did score a late touchdown to get within 42-35, but that was as close as it would get. Statistically, this was actually a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Buckeyes outgained the Crimson Tide 537-407 for the game, or by 130 total yards. Ezekiel Elliot rushed for 230 yards and two touchdowns on only 20 carries in the win. He now has 450 rushing yards in his last two games and is one of the most underrated running backs in the country. Cardale Jones threw for 243 yards and a touchdown with one pick against Alabama as well.

Oregon comes into this game way overvalued due to having gone a perfect 9-0 straight up and 9-0 against the spread in its last nine games overall. While that is impressive, it has the betting public quick to back the Ducks again. I believe these teams are much more evenly matched than this 7-point spread would indicate. It should be closer to a pick ‘em in my eyes, which means there is value in backing the dog.

Yes, Oregon beat Florida State handily 59-20, but that game was far from the blowout that the score shows. The Ducks only outgained the Seminoles by 111 total yards in the win. That’s a good margin, but not one that would warrant a 39-point blowout. The Seminoles simply gave the game away in the second half by committing five turnovers with four lost fumbles and an interception.

Florida State racked up 528 total yards on this suspect Oregon defense. The Ducks can score at will, but they clearly have the worse defense in this one. They are allowing an average of 421.9 yards per game on the season. Ohio State only gives up 22.1 points and 333.4 yards per game against teams that average 28.3 points and 396 yards per game, so it has been pretty elite defensively. I look for the Buckeyes to be the team that comes up with the more stops in this one, which will lead to a cover and possibly an outright win.

Ohio State has been pretty solid against the run, allowing an average of 142 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry against teams that average 188 yards per game and 4.8 per carry. Stopping the run will be key because both teams love to run it. Oregon averages 242 rushing yards per game, while Ohio State puts up 262 yards per game on the ground. Oregon gives up 156 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry against teams that average 162 yards per game and 4.3 per carry, so it has been just mediocre against the run.

I have really been impressed with Ohio State’s ability to stop the run here of late against some very good rushing teams. The Buckeyes have held Michigan, Wisconsin and Alabama to a combined 120.7 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry. They limited Melvin Gordon and the Badgers to just 71 rushing yards on 37 carries, Michigan to 121 yards on 38 carries, and Alabama to 170 yards on 34 carries.

Urban Meyer is 21-5 ATS as an underdog in all games he has coached. Meyer is 15-4 ATS versus excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 17-plus points per game in all games he has coached. Ohio State is 31-11 ATS in its last 42 vs. excellent rushing teams that average at least 230 yards per game. The Buckeyes are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. Pac-12 opponents. Ohio State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. a team with a winning record.  For what it's worth, the Buckeyes are 8-0 all-time against the Ducks.  Bet Ohio State in the National Championship Game Monday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +11

The Orlando Magic are showing excellent value as double-digit road underdogs to the Chicago Bulls tonight.  I'll take advantage and grab as many points as I can get in a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire.

At 13-27 on the season, the Magic get no respect from the betting public.  Well, they have been much better than their record would indicate, as evidenced by their profitable 22-18 ATS mark on the season.  They simply have lost the majority of their close games, which has made their record worse than it should be right now.

The Magic come in undervalued due to their current six-game losing streak.  Seven of their last nine losses have come by 11 points or fewer.  They are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight to put an end to this skid and to get back in the win column.

The Chicago Bulls have been one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA this year.  They have gone just 17-21 ATS on the season.  They have gone 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Each of their last six wins have come by 9 points or less.  They have also been blown out by Brooklyn (82-96) at home, Utah (77-97) at home and Washington (86-102) on the road during their 2-7 ATS stretch.

Chicago is also dealing with some injury issues right now.  Derrick Rose is questionable to play tonight with a hip contusion and a sore left knee.  He missed their last game in a 95-87 home win over Milwaukee on Saturday where Pau Gasol scored a career high 46 points.  He's not going to do that again.  Mike Dunleavy is also doubtful to play tonight with an ankle injury.

The Magic have done their best work on the road where they are 16-8 ATS this season.  They have also played the Bulls very tough in Chicago in recent meetings.  They are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to the United Center.  They have only lost once by more than 9 points to the Bulls in their last 10 trips to Chicago.  That's a 9-1 ATS system backing the Magic pertaining to this 11-point spread.

The underdog is 23-9 ATS in the last 32 meetings in this series.  The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Orlando is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games playing on one days' rest.  Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.  The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Magic Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Nebraska -2.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are one of the most undervalued teams in the country right now due to their slow start to the season.  They returned four starters from a team that went 19-13 last year and made the NCAA Tournament, so they were expected to make another run at the tournament this year.

Well, that run needs to start soon after a slow 9-6 start for the Huskers.  They have been in every game they've played as all six of their losses have come by 11 points or less, and I have no doubt that this team is better than their record.  They got back on track with a 65-49 home win over Rutgers last time out, and I look for them to carry that momentum into today's game with Illinois.

Illinois came into the season as one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They weren't very good last year, but they returned five starters this year, which is why expectations were so high.  Well, the Illini are just 11-5 this season.  They don't have many good wins at all, either.

Illinois is 0-3 in true road games this season with losses to Miami (61-70), Michigan (65-73) and Ohio State (61-77).  I look for it to drop to 0-4 on the road this season against a Nebraska team that has been great at home over the past two seasons.  The Huskers are 22-4 at home over the past two years.

The Illini did return five starters this year, but they are down to three now.  That's because Tracy Abrams is out for the season.  Also, their best player in Rayvonte Rice (17.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg), who leads the team in points and rebounds, is out for the next four-to-six weeks with a broken hand suffered in practice recently.  They come in overvalued off their upset home win over Maryland, but this team just isn't that good without Rice.

Nebraska is 13-2 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% or less shooting after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. The Huskers are 6-0 ATS in home games vs. good teams that outscored their opponents by 8-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  Nebraska is 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Illini are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Huskers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 vs. Big Ten foes.  Roll with Nebraska Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -4.5

The Memphis Grizzlies (25-11) come into this game highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost two straight and three of their last four coming in with all three losses coming on the road.  Now, they return home where they'll handle the Phoenix Suns to get back on track.

Memphis is 14-4 at home this season where it is outscoring teams by an average of 7.3 points per game.  Phoenix is a solid 13-10 on the road this season, but most of its road wins have come against weak teams with losing records.  In fact, only two of its road wins have come against teams that currently have winning records.

This has been a one-sided series in recent meetings to say the least.  Indeed, Memphis is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Phoenix.  All five of those wins have come by 5 points or more, and covering this small 4.5-point spread won't be a problem tonight either.

The Grizzlies are 45-21-1 ATS in their last 67 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  It's also worth noting that Memphis just got back Zach Randolph from a nine-game absence.  They are going to be a much stronger team going forward with a healthy Randolph back in the lineup.  Take the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* Cowboys/Packers NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Dallas +6

This is arguably the most anticipated game of the playoffs this weekend. These are two of the most popular teams in the NFL, and the league is certainly better when both the Cowboys and Packers are good at the same time. Also, the Packers are a perfect 8-0 at home this season, while the Cowboys are 8-0 on the road, so something has to give.

Obviously, the Cowboys going 8-0 on the road is probably the most impressive feat of the entire season in the NFL. They have played their best football away from home this year. They handed Seattle its only home loss of the season back on October 12th when they won 30-23 as 9.5-point underdogs. They won’t be intimidated by having to go into Green Bay to get a win Sunday, that’s for sure.

The Packers did go 8-0 at home this season, but five of those wins came against teams with losing records, and the other three were against New England, Philadelphia and Detroit. Both the Lions and Patriots were able to keep their games close as the Patriots lost by 5, while the Lions lost by 10. I believe the Cowboys are fully capable of keeping this game close as well, which will allow them to cover the 6-point spread.

Yes, Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers and one of the best offenses in the NFL, but it is being overvalued due to Rodgers’ play at home. The real key to this game is going to be defense. The Packers have not been the best defensive team in the league this year, and they have struggled against the run for most of the season. Remember, they were knocked out of the playoffs by the 49ers each of the last two seasons as San Francisco ran wild on them.

I believe that could be the case again in this game. The Cowboys rank 2nd in the league in rushing at 147.1 yards per game and 4.6 per carry behind the superb play of DeMarco Murray and arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. A big reason why I took the Lions +7 last week was because they were elite against the run. They ranked No. 1 in the league in run defense at under 70 yards per game, so I expected them to slow down Murray, which is precisely what they did. They nearly pulled off the upset as a result.

Green Bay won’t be able to stop Murray. The Packers allowed 108 or more rushing yards in 12 of their 16 games this season. They rank 23rd in the league against the run, surrendering an average of 119.9 yards per game and 4.3 per carry. The Cowboys are going to be able to move the football at will on the ground, which will open things up for Tony Romo and the passing game. Green Bay gives up 357.5 yards per game and 6.0 per play against teams that average 353 yards per game and 5.7 per play.

Dallas has been superb against the run and will make Green Bay one-dimensional. The Cowboys have allowed 90 or fewer yards rushing in six of their last eight games overall. They have allowed an average of 61.0 rushing yards per game in their last five games to boot. Stopping Eddie Lacy will be key for them because Rodgers isn’t nearly as effective when he has no running game to support him.

The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Green Bay is 10-22 ATS in its last 32 home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow 7.0 or more yards per attempt. Dallas is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing with 6 or less days of rest this season. The Cowboys are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games after allowing 6.0 or more yards per play in their previous game. Jason Garrett is 20-9 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Dallas, including 9-2 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

25* NFC Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Carolina Panthers +11

The Seattle Seahawks come into the playoffs overvalued due to going 6-0 straight up and 6-0 against the spread in their last six games overall. They now find themselves as double-digit favorites over the Carolina Panthers, which I simply believe is too much. I look for the Panthers to keep this game close from start to finish, just as they have in several recent meetings with the Seahawks.

Yes, it’s bad that a team with a losing record is allowed to make the playoffs. The Panthers even made it despite having a six-game losing streak at one point in the season. They looked lost for much of the year, but here of late, they have much more resembled the team that went 12-4 last year and earned a first-round bye.

Indeed, the Panthers have won five straight games coming in. That includes blowout road wins at New Orleans 41-10 and at Atlanta 34-3, which are no small feats. Even their 27-16 win over the Cardinals last week was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. They outgained the Cardinals by 308 yards and held them to just 78 total yards for the entire game.

Carolina’s run of great play extends back even further. In fact, it has outgained each of its last seven opponents, including five of them by 105 or more total yards. The Panthers have outgained their last seven foes by a total of 977 total yards, or by an average of 139.6 yards per game. Now that’s domination that really shows this team is no pushover.

Cam Newton has returned healthy from injury and has helped the Panthers rush for at least 100 yards in 12 straight games. In fact, the Panthers have averaged 190.4 rushing yards per game in their last five games overall. Jonathan Stewart has spearheaded the rushing attack, averaging 104.8 yards per game himself over these five contests.

The improvement the Panthers have made defensively here of late has been the biggest difference, though. Carolina has allowed 17 or fewer points in five straight games while giving up an average of 11.8 points per game during this stretch. It has also given up just 233.5 yards per game in its last six games overall. These numbers are elite defensively, and they resemble the numbers this defense put up all of last season.

The teams that have given Seattle trouble are ones with a defense and a running game. Seattle is still good against the run, but its biggest strength is against the pass. Controlling the ball with the running game and stopping the Seahawks’ offense is something the Panthers have mastered in recent meetings with them.

The Seahawks have won four straight over the Panthers, but the last three have all gone right down to the wire in ugly, low-scoring defensive battles. The Seahawks won 16-12 in 2012, 12-7 in 2013, and 13-9 in 2014. As you can see, the Panthers held them to 16 or fewer points in all three meetings. I believe they can do that again with the way they are playing defensively, which means they only need a score or two to cover this massive 11-point spread.

Carolina is 8-1 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt over the last three seasons. The Panthers are 11-2 ATS when revenging a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. Carolina is 11-3 ATS after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons. The Panthers have allowed 92 or fewer rushing yards in seven of their last eight games. Stopping Marshawn Lynch and the running game will be huge in this one, too.  Bet the Panthers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 194

The Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls are coming off a pair of defensive battles last night.  The Bulls lost 86-102 at Washington, while the Bucks beat the Timberwolves 98-84 at home.  Both games went UNDER the total, and the oddsmakers have set the number too high again tonight at 194 points for this contest.

Milwaukee is the single-most improved team in the NBA this season.  It has posted a 20-18 record up to this point and is comfortably in the playoffs if the season were to end today.  The reason for the Bucks' resurgence is their defense, which has been some of the best the NBA has to offer.

The Bucks are now a perfect 9-0 to the UNDER in their last nine games overall.  They have held eight of their last nine opponents to 94 or fewer points, and an average of just 86.7 points per game.  If that's not getting it done on the defensive end, then I don't know what is.

Both Chicago and Milwaukee rank among the Top 10 in the league in defensive efficiency.  Milwaukee ranks 4th, giving up just 99.8 points per 100 possessions.  Chicago is a solid 9th in allowing 101.2 points per 100 possessions.

When these teams get together, it's usually a low-scoring affair.  Indeed, the Bulls and Bucks have combined for 192 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings.  They have combined for 181, 192, 153, 181, 152 and 192 points in their last six meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of 175.2 points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.

Chicago is 10-1 to the UNDER in home games after failing to cover the spread in six or seven of its last eight games over the last three seasons.  It is combining with its opponents for an average of 173.1 points per game in these spots, winning 88.7 to 84.4 on average.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Virginia/Notre Dame ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame +2

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish continue to be undervalued this season as home underdogs to the Virginia Cavaliers.  The Irish came into the season picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the ACC.  Well, everyone was wrong on this team, and the oddsmakers are wrong in listing them as home underdogs in this matchup as well.

Notre Dame is off to a 14-1 start this season and currently ranked No. 13 in the country.  Its only loss came by a final of 74-75 on a neutral court against Providence, which was actually essentially a home game for the Friars.  The Irish have impressive wins over the likes of UMass (81-68) and Purdue (94-63) on a neutral court, Michigan State (79-78) and Florida State (83-63) at home, as well as North Carolina (71-70) on the road.

Notre Dame returned four starters from last year, and all four have made big strides this season.  The key was getting Jerian Grant back from suspension.  Grant only played the first 12 games last year before being suspended the rest of the way due to academic issues.

Grant (17.2 ppg, 6.3 apg, 3.2 rpg) is one of the best players in the entire country.  Zach Auguste (14.9 ppg, 6.4 rpg), Demetrius Jackson (14.2 ppg, 3.3 apg) and Pat Connaughton (13.9 ppg, 8.2 rpg) along with Grant give the Irish four players who are scoring at least 13.9 points per game.  Not too many other teams in the country can claim that.

While Virginia is a very good team that won the ACC regular season and postseason titles last year, it is simply overvalued due to its 14-0 start this season.  The Cavaliers have been flirting with disaster here of late, and I look for them to suffer their first loss of the season Saturday to the best team they have played yet. 

They only beat Davidson 83-72 at home as 18-point favorites, Miami 89-80 (OT) on the road as 6.5-point favorites, and NC State (61-51) at home as 14-point favorites in their last three games overall.  They easily could have lost all three games, especially that overtime game on the road against Miami.

Notre Dame is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games off a close road win by 3 points or less.  The Fighting Irish are 12-0 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 26.5 points per game.  They are simply tough to beat at home, and it's going to be a raucous atmosphere on Saturday.  Take Notre Dame Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Carolina +3.5

The Ole Miss Rebels are in a massive hangover spot here.  They came out of nowhere to give No. 1 Kentucky a run for its money on Tuesday, forcing overtime with the Wildcats before eventually losing 86-89 as 23-point underdogs.

While that performance was impressive, there's no way this team will be able to recover from such a tough defeat to the No. 1 team in the country.  I look for the Rebels to fall flat on their faces Saturday against a South Carolina team that is better and will want this game more.

The Rebels aren't even that good of a team this year at 9-5, and several performances show that.  They lost at home to Charleston Southern 65-66 as 13-point favorites, lost at home to TCU 54-66 as 6-point favorites, and lost at home to Western Kentucky 74-81 as 9.5-point favorites.  So, they have already been beaten three times at home this year by suspect competition.

South Carolina has really impressed me during its 9-4 start.  Its four losses have all come to quality competition in Baylor (65-69), Charlotte (63-65), Akron (63-68) and Florida (68-72) all by four points or less.  It has also beaten some good teams like Oklahoma State (75-49), Clemson (68-45) and Iowa State (64-60). 

The Gamecocks are very close to being a 13-0 team right now despite playing a brutal schedule.  Head coach Frank Martin, who had a ton of success at Kansas State before arriving at South Carolina, finally has his players in place.  He returned four starters from last year's team, and this is now a battle-tested, experience squad, which counts for a lot.

South Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  South Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four Saturday games.  The Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  South Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Ole Miss.  The underdog is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Bet South Carolina Saturday.

15* Ravens/Patriots AFC Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore +7

While the Baltimore Ravens entered the playoffs as the No. 6 seed in the AFC, I don’t believe they are only the sixth-best team in the conference. They are right up there with the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos as the top teams in the AFC. They belong in the final four of this conference, and they went out and proved that with a resounding 30-17 win at Pittsburgh last week.

I view the Patriots as only slightly a better team than the Ravens on a neutral field. So, give the Patriots 3-4 points for home-field advantage, and this line should be somewhere in the neighborhood of Patriots -4. I believe we are getting some value in backing the Ravens catching a full touchdown in this game as a result. I just can’t foresee New England winning this game by two scores or more.

The numbers would indicate that these teams are pretty much equals, though the Ravens actually have a slight edge. The Ravens rank 8th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 28.0 yards per game. The Patriots are only 10th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 21.4 yards per game. Statistically, the Patriots aren’t as dominant as their 12-4 record would indicate.

I actually believe New England could have a bit of rust coming into this game. It didn’t go all out against Buffalo in Week 17 as it rested several starters. So, it has essentially had three weeks off in between its last meaningful game and this one. The Patriots also earned the No. 1 seed back in 2012-13, only to get upset at home by the Ravens 28-13 as 8-point favorites in the Divisional Round.

When Baltimore won the Super Bowl two years ago, it had to go on the road for the final two games in the AFC as well. This is a team that doesn’t get phased by having to go on the road and win big games as they have been there, done that. Since joining the league in 2008, Joe Flacco’s 10 postseason wins are more than any other quarterback, including the combined win total for Tom Brady and Peyton Manning (8). His win in Pittsburgh Saturday was his seventh on the road, which is two more than any other passer in NFL history.

Two of Flacco’s playoff road wins have come in his three career attempts in New England. The Ravens just have a knack for playing the Patriots tough. While New England sports a 5-3 record in its last eight meetings with Baltimore, only one of those five wins came by more than 6 points.  So, Baltimore has only lost once to New England by more than 6 points in the last eight meetings between these teams.

Yes, the Patriots did beat the Ravens 41-7 on the road last year, but that game was nowhere near the blowout that the final score would indicate. The Ravens actually outgained the Patriots 358-300 for the game, but gave it away by committing four turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns. The Patriots scored three times in the final 2:05 of the game to pull away.

The Ravens are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record. The Patriots are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 playoff games.  Baltimore is 8-0 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last three seasons. The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six playoff games. Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last five road playoff games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing Baltimore.  Take the Ravens Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on DePaul +21

There's no denying that the Villanova Wildcats are one of the best teams in the country at 14-1 on the season.  However, with that record comes big expectations from the betting public and thus the oddsmakers, which has the Wildcats way overvalued heading into this showdown with DePaul Saturday.

DePaul is just 9-7 on the season, but this is a veteran bunch that returned four starters from last year and is clearly one of the most improved teams in the country.  What I really like about the Blue Demons is how well they are playing in conference play in the early going.

Indeed, DePaul is a perfect 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in Big East action.  It has pulled off three straight upsets.  The Blue Demons won 61-58 as 5-point home dogs to Marquette, 71-68 as 10.5-point home dogs to Xavier, and 70-60 as 10-point road dogs to Creighton to open conference play.  Obviously, if they can beat those three teams, they can certainly stay within 21 of Villanova Saturday.

Jay Wright is 14-28 ATS after playing two consecutive road games as the coach of Villanova.  The Blue Demons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win.  DePaul is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. Big East foes.  These four returning starters for the Blue Demons have not forgotten their two blowout losses to the Wildcats last year by 26 and 25 points.  They want revenge, and their improvement over last year should have them staying within 21.  Roll with DePaul Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Portland -6.5

The Portland Pilots are a team that I have my eye on.  I don't normally play too many teams from smaller conferences, but there are times when I can find a team and ride them when I know they are going under the radar in a small conference.  The WCC is not the smallest of conferences, but not a lot of folks pay attention to it, so there can be some value had.

Portland returned four starters from last year, and this veteran bunch is off to an 11-5 start this season.  The five losses all came to quality competition, and the Pilots were rather competitive in them.  They lost 55-70 to Valparaiso on a neutral court, 58-65 at home to Oregon State, 73-75 at UNLV as 6-point road dogs, 88-97 at BYU as 10.5-point road dogs, and 75-87 at home to Gonzaga as 12-point dogs.

Portland has gone a very profitable 10-3-1 ATS in all lined games this year as it has consistently been undervalued.  This is a very deep team that has eight players averaging at least 6.4 points per game.  Leading the way has been four double-digit scorers in Alec Wintering (14.1 ppg, 5.3 apg), Kevin Bailey (12.0 ppg), Thomas van der Mars (10.8 ppg, 7.9 rpg) and Volodymyr Gerun (10.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg).

From what I've seen from San Francisco thus far, it is certainly fade material.  The Dons are just 7-10 this season with some very ugly losses.  They lost by 15 to Florida Gulf Coast, by 17 to Colorado, by 5 at home to Eastern Washington, by 7 at home to Cal Poly-SLO, by 13 at St. Mary's, by 31 at home against BYU, and by 31 at Gonzaga.

Those two performances against BYU and Gonzaga give these teams a pair of common opponents.  Well, BYU and Gonzaga are considered the two best teams in the WCC.  San Francisco lost by 31 to BYU and by 31 to Gonzaga.  Portland only lost to BYU by 9 and to Gonzaga by 12.  Plus, the Dons could easily have a hangover effect here after losing to both BYU and Gonzaga in their last two games, which are games they were obviously amped up for.  Because of those results, I believe we are getting the Pilots at a discount here as only 6.5-point home favorites.

San Francisco is 0-7 ATS versus good shooting teams that make at least 45% of their shots this season.  Portland is 6-0 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Pilots are 7-0 ATS when playing only their second game in a week this season.  The Dons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  These four trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing the Pilots.  Bet Portland Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Rivalry Play on Washington State +11.5

These rivalry games are always played closer to the vest.  While Washington State is just 7-7 this season and Washington is 11-3, you can throw the records out the window when these in-state rivals get together.  I'll gladly take the double-digit points with the road underdog Cougars in this one.

There's no denying that Washington State has some bad losses this season, but I love the way that it is playing coming into this game.  It has gone 5-1-1 ATS in its last six games overall, time and time again getting overlooked by oddsmakers.

It started with a 91-71 win over TX-San Antonio as 8.5-point home favorites.  The Cougars then went on the road and played a competitive game against one of the best teams in the country in a 66-81 loss at Gonzaga as 22.5-point favorites.  They did fail to cover at Santa Clara in a 67-76 loss, but rebounded with back-to-back covers against San Jose State (82-53) and Cal Davis (90-83) at home.  They lost 56-71 at Stanford as 15-point dogs, then upset Cal on the road 69-66 as 9.5-point dogs.  They are clearly playing well coming in.

Washington has some impressive wins this season and started the season 11-0.  However, you just cannot trust the Huskies to lay 11.5 points with the way they have been playing coming into this game.  They have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat Tulane 66-57 as 14-point home favorites, lost to Stony Brook 57-62 as 13.5-point home favorites, lost at Cal 75-81 as 1-point road favorites, and lost at Stanford 60-68 as 5.5-point underdogs.  They just aren't playing good basketball heading in.

This has been a very closely-contested series throughout the years.  In fact, 10 of the last 11 meetings between Washington and Washington State have been decided by 11 points or fewer.  That makes for a 10-1 system backing the Cougars given this 11.5-point spread.  Also, eight of those 11 meetings were decided by 7 points or fewer.

The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Huskies are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Pac-12 opponents.  Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Cougars are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Throw in the 10-1 system on the 11 points or less trend, and these last four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the Cougars.  Roll with Washington State Saturday.

20* Bulls/Wizards ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 195

The Chicago Bulls and Washington Wizards square off on ESPN Friday night in what I anticipate to be a low-scoring, defensive battle.  That has been the case when these teams have gotten together recently, and it will be the case again tonight.

The last three meetings between these teams have seen 190, 144, and 187 combined points for an average of 173.7 combined points per game.  Not counting overtime, 18 of the last 19 meetings between these teams have seen 195 or less combined points.  The only exception was a 197-point effort.  That's a 17-1-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 195.

Neither of these teams are in a hurry on offense as they both rank in the bottom half of the league in pace.  Chicago ranks 16th at 96.2 possessions per game, while Washington ranks 19th at 95.5 possessions per contest.  Both teams rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency as well.  Washington ranks 6th at 100.4 points per 100 possessions allowed, while Chicago is 9th at 101.2.

The UNDER is 7-1 in Bulls last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 12-3-1 in Wizards last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 10-3-1 in Wizards last 14 games when playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings in Washington.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Pelicans UNDER 196.5

There is a lot to like about this UNDER tonight between the Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans.  First and foremost, when you look at the recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated.

Indeed, 11 of the last 12 meetings between the Pelicans and Grizzlies have seen 194 or fewer combined points.  They have combined for 174, 178, 187, 202, 183, 173, 181, 174, 185, 194, 163 and 180 points in their last 12 meetings.  That's an average of 181.7 combined points per game, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 196.5.

Another reason to love this UNDER is that neither team is in a hurry offensively.  The Grizzlies rank 27th in the league in pace at 94.0 possessions per game.  The Pelicans rank 22nd in pace at 95.1 possessions per contest.  So, fewer possessions equals fewer points as this one will be played at a snail's pace.

New Orleans is 90-56 to the UNDER in its last 146 vs. teams with a winning percentage of greater than 70%.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Grizzlies last five vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Pelicans last seven vs. Western Conference foes.  The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.