20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Michigan +5

Western Michigan is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall and should be 7-0 ATS, so they are a way undervalued commodity right now.  They are coming off a 38-28 win over Central Michigan as 3-point home favorites where they gained 484 total yards in a dominant effort.  That followed up a 45-21 win at Eastern Michigan as a 3-point favorite.  

The Broncos also took Ohio to the wire as 16.5-point road dogs in a 20-17 loss the game prior.  They gave Miami Ohio all they could handle the game prior.  They covered in a 28-41 loss at Mississippi State as 21.5-point dogs.  They blasted Ball State 42-24 as 1.5-point favorites.  They also covered in a loss at Toledo and deserved to cover in a loss at Iowa.

Now Western Michigan is catching 5 points against a Northern Illinois team that can't get out of their own way right now and is overvalued.  The Huskies are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall despite being favored in all three games.  They only beat Eastern Michigan 20-13 as 12-point home favorites.  They lost at Central Michigan 37-31 as 6-point road favorites.  They lost 20-17 at home to Ball State as 9-point home favorites last time out.  Those are three of the worst teams in the MAC.  They cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number against a Western Michigan team that is playing better than them to close out the season.

Western Michigan is 7-0 ATS in its last seven MAC road games.  Northern Illinois is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite.  The Huskies are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as favorites overall.  Bet Western Michigan Tuesday.

20* Broncos/Bills ESPN No-Brainer on Denver +7.5

These are two teams headed in opposite directions.  There's clearly value with the team trending up in the Denver Broncos, especially when you consider their massive rest advantage.  They are coming off a bye week and as healthy as they have been all season.  The Bills are coming off a Sunday night game against the Cincinnati Bengals and will be playing for a 10th consecutive week.

The Bills are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have hit the skids since losing three of their best defensive players in a 25-20 loss to the Jaguars in London in which they allowed 474 total yards.  They were life and death with Tyrod Taylor and the Giants, needed two stops from the 1-yard line to seal a 14-9 home win as 15.5-point favorites.  They lost outright to the Patriots 29-25 as 7.5-point road favorites and allowed Mac Jones to look like a star.  They had to defend a hail mary in a 24-18 win as 10-point home favorites over the hapless Bucs.  And last week they were never really in the game in a 24-18 loss at Cincinnati where they allowed 397 yards.

The Broncos are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two games overall.  They beat the Packers 19-17 at home and outgained them.  Then they pulled the 24-9 upset at home over the Kansas City Chiefs as 7-point dogs.  They held to the Chiefs to 19 points the game prior, and their defense getting healthy and living up to its potential is the reason for the turnaround.  They have allowed just 15.0 points per game in their last three games despite facing the Chiefs twice.  That's mighty impressive.

I'll gladly side with the better defense in this one catching 7.5 points to the Bills.  Buffalo lost another starter in S Micah Hyde in that loss to the Bengals.  LB Terrel Bernard remains in concussion protocol.  This Denver offense will have plenty of new wrinkles coming out of the bye under Sean Payton and is primed for one of their best performances of the season against this injury-ravaged Bills defense.  Buffalo QB Josh Allen is nursing a shoulder injury that has made him the 2nd-least accurate passer in the NFL on deep throws since the injury.

Denver is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games when playing on two weeks' rest.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Buffalo) - after two consecutive games where they forced zero turnovers against an opponent that committed one or fewer turnovers last game are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Sean Payton is 50-31 ATS as an underdog as a head coach.  Payton is 45-25 ATS following two consecutive ATS wins as a head coach.  The Bills are getting too much respect for the team they were in the past, not the team they currently are.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on South Dakota State +10.5

Kansas State is overvalued after making a run to the Elite 8 last year.  Gone to the NBA are Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, who combined to average 35 of K-State's 76.2 points per game last year.  The leading return scorer is Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 boards last season.  But Tomlin is suspended to start the season, leaving the Wildcats with not much experience at all in what will be a rebuilding year.

That appears to be the case thus far.  The Wildcats lost 82-69 as 3-point dogs to USC on a neutral in their opener.  They struggled to put away Bellarmine in a 83-75 win as 16-point home favorites last time out.  That narrow win looks really bad when you consider Bellarmine lost their other game 91-57 as 10.5-point dogs at Washington.  And in Washington's other two games, they failed to cover in an 8-point win over Northern Kentucky as 15.5-point favorites and lost outright by 7 as 5.5-point favorites against Nevada.

South Dakota State lost 81-75 at home as 2-point favorites against Akron in their opener.  Everyone picked Akron to win the MAC this season, so that wasn't a bad loss at all.  This might actually be a step down in class for them tonight.  They went on to beat Dakota Wesleyan 83-55 and have had the last four days off to get ready for Kansas State.  

South Dakota State is the preseason favorite to win the Summit League.  A big reason for that is having Summit League Preseason Player of the Year, Zeko Mayo.  He shows his 28-point effort against Akron was no fluke with 28 more against Wesleyan.  He and William Kyle III (17 points, 13 rebounds) both had double-doubles.  I expect Mayo, Kyle III and the Jackrabbits give the Wildcats a run for their money tonight.  Bet South Dakota State Monday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +9

The New York Knicks have quietly gone 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They haven't lost a single game by more than 9 points all season, and they aren't about to start now.  

The books have set this number too high because the Knicks are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but they blew out the Hornets 129-107 at 12:00 PM EST Sunday and now don't play until night on Monday. They also had three days off prior to that game and rested their starters in the 4th quarter of that blowout Sunday.  They will still be fresh for this game Monday, and they want revenge from a 104-108 home loss to the Celtics in their first meeting this season.

The Celtics are getting too much respect here off a pair of blowout home wins over the Nets and Raptors.  This is a big step up in class for them tonight.  They never blow out the Knicks, going 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings with New York.  The Knicks have them figured out, and they will keep this one close again tonight if not win outright.

New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a blowout win by 20 points or more.  The Knicks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games following three or more consecutive wins.  Asking the Celtics to beat the Knicks by double-digits to beat us tonight is asking too much.  Bet the Knicks Monday.

15* CBB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Miami -20.5

The Miami Hurricanes made the Final 4 last year and brought back three starters from that team.  All three are off to good starts with Wooga Poplar averaging a team-high 22.0 points, Norchad Omier averaging 19.5 points and a team-high 11.0 rebounds, and Nijel Pack averaging 9.5 points and a team-high 6.0 assists.

But the unsung hero is Bensley Joseph, who had an incredible stat line in a 88-72 win over UCF on Friday.  He has 15 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 steals and 4 blocks.  Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland took the place of NBA draft pick Jordan Miller, and he is filling those massive shoes nicely averaging 14.0 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists.

Miami blasted New Jersey Tech 101-60 as 25-point favorites in the opener and easily handled UCF 88-72 as 9.5-point favorites last time out.  Now they play a terrible Florida International team that lost 85-62 as 9.5-point dogs at UCF in their opener to give these teams a rare common opponent here early in the season.  It was no aberration as FIU went on to lose 82-65 despite being 4.5-point home favorites to Tarleton State.  It's not going to go well for the Panthers tonight, either.

FIU is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 road games.  The Panthers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.  Miami is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a home win where they scored 85 points or more.  The Hurricanes rank 3rd in the country in average offensive possessions length so they are going to get a ton of shots up on offense, which is why I'm not scared of laying this big number.  Bet Miami Monday.

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +3

The Phoenix Suns are going to be fade material until they get healthy.  Bradley Beal is working his way back from injury, Devin Booker remains out and Eric Gordon is questionable after missing the last game.  There's just not enough depth on this team to be missing these guys, or not having them at 100%.

The Suns are 2-4 SU & 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall which includes upset losses to the Spurs (twice) and Lakers all at home.  Their only two wins during this stretch came against the lowly Bulls and Pistons.  Now they take a big step up in class here against an Oklahoma City Thunder team that I believe is a contender in the West when healthy.

Well, the Thunder are healthy right now beating the Hawks and Cavaliers at home before a disappointing loss at Sacramento.  They'll come back highly motivated for a victory after that loss to the Kings, and they should not be underdogs here given the current state of the Suns.

The Thunder are 42-22 ATS in their last 64 games after scoring 105 points or less.  Oklahoma City is 37-23 ATS in its last 60 games as an underdog.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +4.5

The Houston Rockets are grossly undervalued right now.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall despite being underdogs in three of those five games.  They have wins by 9, 18, 25, 34 and 3 points as these games have rarely even been close to the spread.

Now the Rockets will stay hot tonight and won't have a letdown considering the defending champion Denver Nuggets are coming to town.  The Nuggets have been fortunate to play a home-heavy schedule to this point with six of their first nine games at home.  They are 1-2 ATS on the road with a 4-point win over lowly Memphis and a 21-point loss at Minnesota included.

The Nuggets aren't at full strength right now as Jamal Murray is sidelined with a hamstring injury.  They have been dominant when Murray and Jokic have been on the court at the same time, but they have been vulnerable the past several seasons when Murray has been out.  They are vulnerable tonight against the red-hot Rockets.  Bet the Rockets Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pacers/76ers OVER 237.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-1 to the OVER this season while scoring 126.0 points per game and allowing 121.6 points per game.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency.

The 76ers are having no problem scoring without James Harden as they are off to a 7-1 start this season and scoring 118.6 points per game.  They are in line for one of their biggest outputs of the season, similar to their 146-128 home win over Washington a few games back that saw 174 combined points.  Washington is a poor man's Indiana playing up-tempo and no defense.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Pacers and 76ers with 262, 290 and 255 combined points.  The books just can't set these Indiana totals high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions ML -120

The Detroit Lions are as healthy as they have been all season.  They are coming out of their bye week and primed for a big performance against the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend.  They are the better team in this matchup, so getting -120 on the money line on the opener Sunday night was an absolute steal.

The Lions are expected to get RB David Montgomery back from injury this week.  They are also expected to get two starting offensive linemen back this week.  It's not like they were hurting going into the bye, crushing the Raiders 26-14 in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  They outgained the Raiders 486 to 157, or by 331 total yards.

The Lions are an elite team but aren't getting treated like one.  They belong up there with the 49ers, Chiefs and Ravens of the world.  The Lions are outgaining opponents by 94 yards per game on the season and 0.5 yards per play.  Let's compare that to the Chargers, who are actually getting outgained by 35 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play, and it's easy to see why I'm on the Lions.

The Chargers are getting respect here because of their 27-6 win over the Jets on Monday Night Football.  That was such a misleading final.  The Jets held them to just 191 total yards yet lost by 21.  They gave up an 87-yard punt return TD to the Chargers for the first score of the game and were behind the eight ball the rest of the way, finishing -3 in turnovers.

This Chargers offense has been held to 17 points by the Cowboys, 17 points by the Chiefs and then 191 yards by the Jets in three of their last four games.  Their offense is broken right now.  They are without two of their top three receivers in Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer, and they are so easy to stop now because teams can key in on Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler without having to worry about those other two.  The Chargers don't have the firepower to keep up with the Lions in this one, and the Lions have the much better defense.

Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a home win.  The Lions are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games in Weeks 10 through 13.  Detroit is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after winning two of its last three games.  Detroit is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. poor pass defenses allowing 7 or more yards per attempt in the 2nd half of the season.  These four trends combined for a perfect 32-0 system backing the Lions.  Bet the Lions on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Falcons PK

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Atlanta Falcons.  They are 4-5 SU & 2-7 ATS this season with so many losses in close games.  But Taylor Heineke has given this offense a spark the last two weeks and I think they are better off with him moving forward.

Heineke replaced Desmond Ridder midway through the Tennessee game and nearly led them to a comeback, throwing for 175 yards and a touchdown on only 21 attempts.  He then threw for 268 yards and another touchdown against the Vikings last week and led them to 28 points.  He led what looked to be the game-winning TD drive with two minutes left to take a 28-24 lead, but the defense couldn't hold it.

I think everything comes together for the Falcons this week.  They are just one game back of the Saints in the NFC South Division with a lot to play for.  They won't be taking the Arizona Cardinals lightly, especially coming off two consecutive losses.  Leading receiver Drake London is expected to return this week after missing last week.  Heineke will be even better with him on the field as another weapon.

But this is as much of a fade of Arizona as anything.  The Cardinals are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with five losses by double-digits.  They couldn't win with Josh Dobbs at quarterback, and Kyler Murray won't be an upgrade in his first start back from a torn ACL.  He won't be the old Kyler Murray where he was looking to run, and he isn't exactly the best pocket passer.

Arizona's troubles go much deeper than at quarterback.  They've been without RB James Conner, RB Emari Demercado and WR Michael Wilson.  They have three starters on the offensive line that are questionable as this has just been a mash unit this season.  Murray isn't going to have much time behind this offensive line.  Arizona has a leaky defense that allows 26.7 points per game and 5.7 yards per play this season.

Atlanta is one of those teams that has better numbers than their record would indicate which is another reason we can 'buy low' on them in the second half of the season.  They are outgaining opponents by 40 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play.  Arizona is getting outgained by 62 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play to compare.  We are getting the Falcons cheap here because of the Kyler Murray news.  It won't make a difference in his first game back.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* 49ers/Jaguars Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Francisco ML -135

I love backing motivated teams off a bye week and fading fat and happy teams off a bye week.  I get the best of both worlds here making the 49ers a very strong play to take down the Jacksonville Jaguars on the Money Line.

The 49ers are pissed off following three consecutive losses in games they easily could have won.  They lost by 2 at Cleveland, by 5 at Minnesota and by 14 at home to Cincinnati despite outgaining them by 60 yards and racking up 460 yards of offense in a misleading final.

A big reason for the 49ers' struggles were the injuries suffered in the loss to Cleveland.  But now they are healthy out of the bye and expected to get both OT Trent Williams and WR Deebo Samuel back from injury.  Williams is arguably the best tackle in the NFL protecting Brock Purdy's blind side.  Samuel just opens up the entire offense with his ability to catch short passes and take it the distance.  Plus, the 49ers get better defensively with the trade for Chase Young to pair him up with former Ohio State teammate Nick Bosa on the defensive line.

The Jaguars didn't need a bye because they were building up huge momentum going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their five games going into the bye.  Now they have lost that momentum and are fat and happy and not as motivated as the 49ers will be.  Plus, this five-game winning streak comes with some asterisks as it was a very soft schedule.

The Jaguars beat the Falcons in London then beat the Bills in London, who lost three defensive starters early in that game that changed the complexion of it.  Then they beat the Colts despite only gaining 233 yards as the Colts handed it to them with four turnovers.  They went on the road and beat the Saints by 7 as the Saints dropped a wide open TD pass in the final seconds that would have tied it.  Then they beat the hapless Steelers, who have been outgained in every single game this season.

This is a big step up in class for the Jaguars to say the least.  It's similar to when they faced the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2 and lost 17-9.  Their offense was held to 271 total yards by the Chiefs while giving up 399 yards.  The 49ers are the real contenders of these two teams, and that will show on the field Sunday.  It also shows up in the numbers.

The 49ers average 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 5.2 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play.  The Jaguars are actually getting outgained on the season and outgained by 0.1 yards per play as well, gaining 5.2 on offense and allowing 5.3 on defense.  I have the 49ers among the elite and the Jaguars in the middle of the pack.  Jacksonville has very little home-field advantage compared to the rest of the NFL, too.

San Francisco is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a non-conference game.  Jacksonville is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games vs. NFC West opponents.  Plays on road teams (San Francisco) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, a good team winning 60-75% of their games in the second half of the season are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (San Francisco) - after three or more consecutive ATS losses against an opponent off two or more consecutive ATS wins are 35-13 (72.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  I grabbed the 49ers on the Money Line on the opener anticipating this line would move.  Bet the 49ers on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Browns/Ravens AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -6.5

The Baltimore Ravens have gotten healthy and are currently the best team in the NFL with the way they are playing.  They should be 9-0 but instead are 7-2 as they gave two games away against the Colts and Steelers earlier this season when they weren't healthy.  What they have done their last four games when healthy has been mighty impressive.

Baltimore beat Tennessee 24-16 in London and outgained the Titans 360 to 233, or by 127 total yards.  They beat the Lions 38-6 at home and outgained the Lions 503 to 337, or by 166 total yards.  They beat Arizona 31-24 on the road and that game was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as they led by 17 in the 4th quarter.  They beat Seattle 37-3 and outgained the Seahawks 515 to 151, or by 364 total yards.

This run has Baltimore ranked as the 3rd-best team in DVOA in NFL history through nine games.  The Ravens average 369 yards per game and 5.9 per play on offense and allow 263 yards per game and 4.3 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 106 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play.  They are scoring 26.6 points per game and allowing 13.8 points per game, outscoring opponents by 12.8 points per game.

The Cleveland Browns are coming off a 27-0 win over Arizona which is giving them more respect than they deserve.  Arizona started 3rd stringer Clayton Tune in that game and seemed to purposely try to lose it.  Deshaun Watson made his return from injury in that game and still didn't look right, but fortunately it didn't matter because the Cardinals didn't have a pulse on offense.  It will matter this week.

It also matters that Watson will be playing behind an offensive line that is missing both starting tackles in Jack Conklin and Jedrick Willis Jr.  Now backup RT Dawand Jones has been ruled out.  Watson is going to have his hands full with this offensive line up against one of the best pass rushes in the NFL that the Ravens deploy.

I think this Cleveland defense is overrated, too.  They allowed 24 points and 362 total yards to the Seahawks and 38 points and 456 total yards to the Colts in their two games prior to facing the hapless Cardinals.  We saw what the Ravens did to both of those teams holding the Colts to 19 points at the end of regulation, then holding the Seahawks to 3 points and 151 total yards last week.

The Ravens beat the Browns 28-3 on the road in their first meeting this season and had no problem scoring on them.  The Ravens were also missing five defensive starters in that game.  I know it was DTR instead of Watson, but I just don't think it's going to make a difference because Watson isn't right.  It's going to be more of the same in the rematch with another blowout victory in Baltimore's favor.

Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win by 10 points or more.  The Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after covering the spread in two of their last three games.  Kevin Stefanski is 1-8 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points as the coach of Cleveland.  These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Baltimore.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

15* Colts/Patriots AFC Early ANNIHILATOR on Indianapolis ML -115

The Indianapolis Colts have a pulse now at 4-5 after beating the Carolina Panthers 27-13 on the road last week to end a three-game losing streak against a tough schedule of the Jaguars, Browns and Saints.  They played all three of those teams tough when you look at the box score, and they did so short-handed.

Reinforcements are on the way for the Colts as they head to Germany to face the hapless New England Patriots.  Teams have been able to run on them without DT Grover Stewart and especially without LB Zaire Franklin, the team's leading tackler with 102 tackles on the season, which is 40 more than 2nd place.  Franklin returns to the lineup this week and will help shut down this New England rushing attack.

The Patriots are 2-7 SU & 2-7 ATS this season and were fortunate to escape with both of the wins they have.  They have a dreadful offense averaging just 15.0 points per game while the Colts average 25.8 points per game and are the only NFL team to score at least 20 points in every game.  The Colts have a better defense than they get credit for ranking in the top half of the league in most metrics.  The Patriots started out great defensively, but injuries have them falling off a cliff of late allowing 25 points to Buffalo, 31 points to Miami and 20 points and 432 total yards to Washington in their last three games.

The Patriots will be without CB JC Jackson and OT Trent Brown.  They are lacking playmakers at receiver and will be without Davante Parker and Kendrick Bourne.  Demario Douglas is also banged up and questionable.  They are in a really sad state offensively right now with JuJu Smith-Schuster as their go-to receiver.  He can't get separation any more.  Mac Jones has nobody to throw to, and when he does throw he makes terrible decisions and cannot be trusted.

Given the state of both of these teams with the Colts trending up and the Patriots trending down, the Colts should be the favorites here on a neutral field, so getting them at a PK is a gift.  Indianapolis is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS on the road this season including an upset of the Baltimore Ravens.  The Colts are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games after scoring at least 25 points in three consecutive games.  Indianapolis is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 road games vs. teams that force one or fewer turnovers per game.  Mac Jones is 3-16 SU & 4-15 ATS as an underdog in his career.  Bet the Colts on the Money Line Sunday.

20* USC/Oregon FOX Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon -14.5

The gift that keeps on giving for us is fading USC.  USC is now 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall while failing to cover the spread by a combined 108 points, or an average of 15.4 points per game.  They only beat Arizona State by 14, Colorado by 7 and Arizona by 2 before losing by 28 to Notre Dame.  The Trojans have played such a soft schedule this season and finally met their match against Notre Dame.

They have since lost outright by 2 at home as 7-point favorites against Utah and were life and death with Cal as 10-point favorites, escaping with a 1-point victory.  They lost by 10 to Washington as 2.5-point home dogs last week which ended their hopes of winning the Pac-12.  I really question their motivation the rest of the way.

Now USC will face its stiffest test of the season on the road against an Oregon team that looks like a bonafide playoff contender and the best team in the Pac-12.  Oregon is 8-1 SU & 7-1-1 ATS this season with elite numbers on offense and defense.  They are scoring 47.4 points per game, averaging 540.1 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play, while allowing just 16.0 points per game, 301.9 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 3.1 yards per play, which is absolutely elite.

They will be able to score at will on a USC defense that allows 34.5 points per game, 436.5 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  This USC defense is the reason they aren't a contender.  They have a very good offense, but it doesn't matter because the defense can't stop anyone.  They certainly aren't going to stop Oregon after allowing 52 points to Washington and 49 to Cal the last two weeks.  They have allowed 41 or more points in five of their last six games, and the lone exception was the 34 they allowed to a Utah offense that isn't even very good.  To compare, Oregon held Utah to 6 points in a 35-6 victory two weeks ago in Salt Lake City to boot.

Oregon is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 42 points or more.  This line should be much higher given the circumstances with USC a dead team walking and Oregon with a ton to play for.  Plus, it's a Saturday night home game for the Ducks in what will be a very hostile atmosphere in their favor.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

25* Mountain West GAME OF THE YEAR on San Jose State ML -103

Despite their 4-5 record, the San Jose State Spartans are very much alive to win the Mountain West.  They trail the Fresno State Bulldogs by just one game for 2nd place, and the top two teams play for the title.  They have put themselves in this position by playing their best football of the season of late after a brutal schedule to start the season.

San Jose State is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall.  They beat New Mexico 52-24 as 6-point road favorites behind 541 total yards with 16.0 yards per pass attempt and 8.1 yards per rush.  They beat a very good Utah State team 42-21 and held their high-powered offense to just 264 total yards.  Then they beat Hawaii 35-0 while holding a solid Hawaii offense to 198 total yards.

That game against Hawaii was two weeks ago so they are coming off a bye and have had two full weeks to prepare for Fresno State.  Meanwhile, Fresno State is coming off four straight games decided by a single score that went down to the wire.  That includes their 37-30 win over Boise State last week where a kickoff return TD was the difference on the final play before half, plus they punched in a TD late on a breakaway 52-yard run.

Fresno State has been outgained in three consecutive games despite winning all three as they have simply been fortunate in close games.  They gave up 568 yards to Utah State, 424 yards to UNLV and 488 yards to Boise State.  Their defense isn't very good, and they are going to struggle to stop this surging San Jose State offense led by QB Chandler Cordeiro.  He is completing 61% of his passes with a 13-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for three scores on the ground.  The Spartans have rushed for at least 217 yards in three consecutive games and have tremendous balance.

No question Fresno State is led by a very good offense, but QB Mikey Keene is still hobbled and not 100%.  I think this San Jose State defense is going to perform very well here just as they have the past two games against Utah State and Hawaii.  They will put this two weeks of preparation to good use in coming up with the right game plan to at least slow down this Bulldogs offense.  I think Fresno State's luck runs out this week in what is a terrible spot for them, and a great one for the Spartans.

Fresno State is 4-13 ATS in its last 16 road games following two consecutive home wins.  San Jose State is 6-0 ATS in Saturday games this season.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

20* Ole Miss/Georgia ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +11

The Ole Miss Rebels are very much alive to win the SEC West with just one loss this season.  They are going to need Alabama to slip up, but they still have to play Kentucky and Auburn.  I have no doubt Ole Miss will be 'all in' this week to try and knock off the defending two-time national champion Georgia Bulldogs.  They are treating this game as their national championship.

Georgia has been overvalued all season after winning the title each of the last two seasons.  They are consistently laying too many points, going 2-6-1 ATS in their nine games this season despite being 9-0 straight up.  They let South Carolina, Auburn, Missouri and Vanderbilt all hang around with three of those wins coming by 10 points or fewer.  This will now be by far their toughest test of the season.

I cashed Missouri +16 last week against Georgia and they were only outgained by 22 yards in a 9-point loss at Georgia.  That was the game Georgia had to win because it basically sealed the SEC East for them.  It also followed up the win over Florida, their biggest rivals.  So this is the third straight game they are going to have to get up for, and I don't like their mental state coming into this one.  Those games against SEC East foes Florida and Missouri were much more important than this game against Ole Miss from the West.

Ole Miss has played the 13th-toughest schedule in the country while Georgia has played the 69th.  That's a 56-spot difference in strength of schedule.  That important to consider when looking at the statistical profile of these two teams, which is much closer than you would expect for a team catching 11 points.  Ole Miss gains 6.9 yards per play and allows 5.1 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play.  Georgia averages 7.1 yards per play and allows 4.7 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 2.4 yards per play.

Georgia has a couple injuries here that are also concerning.  They lost leading receiver Brock Bowers a couple games ago.  He has 41 receptions for 567 yards and 4 TD and was even in the Heisman Trophy discussion for how well he was playing.  They just lost starting LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson to a fractured forearm against Missouri, and he's the 3rd-leading tackler on the team and has the most sacks.  Fellow LB Xavian Sorey Jr. missed last game and is questionable to return.

Ole Miss has the kind of high-powered offense that is going to keep them in this game for four quarters.  QB Jaxoson Dart is completing 65.6% of his passes with a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio and averaging 10.1 yards per attempt, while also rushing for 334 yards and 7 TD on the ground.  He has arguably the most talented trio of receivers in the country in Harris, Watkins and Wade.  The Rebels have nice balance rushing for 181 yards per game, and teams have been able to move the ball on the ground against this Georgia defense unlike previous years.

Georgia is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 home games following three consecutive conference wins, including 1-9 ATS under Kirby Smart in this spot.  The Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after not committing a turnover in their previous game.  Georgia is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. excellent passing teams that allow 275 or more passing yards per game.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors +8.5

The Toronto Raptors have turned it around and been very impressive in their last four games.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming to the 76ers on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  The 76ers have just one loss this season and it came by a single point.

Toronto beat Milwaukee 130-111 as 4.5-point home dogs.  The Raptors went on the road and topped San Antonio 123-116 as 3.5-point favorites.  They then upset the Dallas Mavericks 127-116 as 4.5-point dogs.  Now they are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off, plus they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here.

Meanwhile, Boston will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the Nets 121-107 at home last night.  The starters had to play most the game in that one as it wasn't decided until late in the 4th quarter.  It will also be the 5th game in 8 days for the Celtics, who shouldn't be laying this big of a number given the Raptors' rest advantage.

Four of the last five meetings between Boston and Toronto have been decided by 6 points or fewer.  Bet the Raptors Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati/Houston OVER 54.5

I like backing OVERS between two teams with not much to play for.  There tends to be more offense and less defense in these games.  Cincinnati sits at 2-7 on the season while Houston sits at 4-5.  They aren't going to be concerned with playing defense in this one, and it's not like either of these teams has played very good defense anyway all season.

Cincinnati allows 28.3 points per game and 6.2 yards per play overall, including 31.7 points per game and 6.5 yards per play in Big 12 play.  Houston allows 31.6 points per game and 6.0 yards per play overall, including 36.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play in conference play.

Cincinnati has a great offense for a team that is 2-7.  The Bearcats average 452.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season, but they have been done in by turnovers.  Houston averages 25.2 points per game and 5.7 yards per play and should get their offense going this week against this Cincinnati defense.

Four of Cincinnati's last five games have seen 54 or more combined points.  I think this total is lower than it should be because Houston has gone under the total in three straight games, but they played two great defenses in Texas and Kansas State.  They got their offense going last week against Baylor again and that should continue against Cincinnati this week.

Houston is 6-0 OVER vs. bad teams with a winning percentage of 25% or less over the last three seasons.  Dana Holgorsen is 7-0 OVER in home games vs. teams that average 32-plus minutes in time of possession and 21 or more first downs per game as a head coach.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Colorado State -3.5

I faded San Diego State last week with success and I am fading the Aztecs again for many of the same reasons.  Brady Hoke is used to competing for Mountain West titles but he has lost his touch.  It's unlikely he'll be back after this season, and this just looks like a dead Aztecs team right now. They sit at just 3-6 on the season and won't even be making a bowl game once they lost this week.

They suffered a 6-0 home loss to Nevada two weeks ago, which came against one of the worst teams in all of college football.  They were life and death the game prior against Hawaii and were fortunate to win that game considering Hawaii had 480 total yards but committed four costly turnovers.  And the week prior they were flat as a pancake in a 49-10 loss at Air Force.

They were more competitive last week but were fortunate to force OT as they trailed Utah State 17-7 at home with 11 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter.  Utah State missed a 38-yard field goal to give them life, and they took advantage by scoring the final 10 points.  They wound up losing 32-24 in double-OT, which was yet another deflating loss.  I don't think they'll be able to get back up off the mat in time to face Colorado State on the road this week.

San Diego State is 3-6 this season and every bit as bad as that record would indicate.  They are gaining 5.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 6.1 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.0 yards per play.  They are also getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game.  They have another terrible offense this season, but the difference has been having their worst defense in over a decade.

Colorado State is much better than its 2-6 record would indicate.  They should have beaten Colorado in a double-OT loss, and they played UNLV to the wire in a 2-point defeat.  They did beat Boise State, which was a very good win.  They were competitive against both Air Force and Wyoming when you look at the numbers, too.  This is a massive step down in class for Colorado State after their gauntlet of a schedule over the last five weeks.  They also get an extra day of rest after losing at Wyoming last Friday.

Colorado State has played six road games and only three home games, while San Diego State has played six home games and only three road games.  The Rams have played the much tougher schedule to this point as well, especially when you consider the home/road discrepancy.  They close with three very winnable games against SDSU, Nevada and Hawaii and could still get to a bowl with a lot to play for.  I think the Rams get a good reset here knowing that's the case.  It starts with a win and cover here against the dead Aztecs.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toledo -6.5

The Toledo Rockets are a contender in the MAC this season.  The won 94-60 as 15.5-point home favorites over Detroit in their opener to continue their ATS dominance over the last several seasons, especially when favored at home.

Louisiana beat Youngstown State 72-62 as 4-point home favorites in their opener.  Louisiana is picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Sun Belt.  That win over Youngstown State doesn't look at good now after Youngstown State just lost 92-62 at Michigan as 16-point underdogs Friday night.

Toledo is 44-24 ATS in its last 68 games overall.  Toledo is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games.  Bet Toledo Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas State +12

Arkansas State is quietly playing very well and knocking on the door of bowl eligibility.  The Red Wolves have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall and coming off a 37-17 upset win as 7-point dogs to UL-Lafayette.  They have a tough remaining schedule so will be 'all in' in every game the rest of the way to get that coveted 6th win and bowl eligibility.

South Alabama is in the midst of a disappointing season.  They were expected to contend for a Sun Belt title with 18 returning starters from a team that nearly won the title last year.  But they lost to James Madison in their Sun Belt opener, and have since lost two more times in conference play to knock them out of title contention.

The 33-20 loss to Louisiana at home as 12-point favorites hurt two weeks ago, but they were still alive when they took on Troy last week.  Their 28-10 loss to Troy ended all hope.  Now I question their motivation the rest of the way.  That loss to Troy was the kind of loss that could easily beat a team twice.

QB Carter Bradley got hurt against Louisiana and missed the Troy game because of it.  He must have been really hurt to miss the Troy game with their season on the line.  He is questionable to return this week, but my best guess is he doesn't play, and even if he does he won't be anywhere near 100%.  Bradley completed 66% of his passes while averaging 8.5 per attempt this season, and there's a huge drop off to his backup.

The Jaguars have no business being 12-point favorites here over Arkansas State given their lack of motivation and the injury to Bradley.  There's a ton of value here with the Red Wolves, who are live underdogs to pull off the upset once again.  South Alabama is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 games when playing against a marginal winning team (51% to 60%).  Bet Arkansas State Saturday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State +4.5

What more does New Mexico State have to do to get some respect? They are 7-3 SU & 7-2-1 ATS this season and still lacking the respect they deserve as 4.5-point underdogs to a Western Kentucky team that they are better than.  New Mexico State is trying to earn a berth to the C-USA Championship Game, and another win Saturday would go a long way in accomplishing that goal.

New Mexico State is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in conference play with their lone loss coming to Liberty, the C-USA favorite that remains unbeaten this season.  Western Kentucky is 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS in conference play this season.  New Mexico State is outgaining opponents by 15.5 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play in conference play.  Western Kentucky is getting outgained by 28.2 yards per game and only outgaining opponents by 0.3 yards per play in conference play.  It's clear to me New Mexico State is the better team when you look at the numbers.

WKU is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall.  They were upset by Jacksonville State and nothing was fluky about that defeat, getting outgained 484 to 339, or by 145 total yards.  They lost 42-29 to Liberty at home in their most important game of the season.  Then last week they were fortunate to beat a terrible UTEP team as a 9-point favorite, actually getting outgained 368 to 280 by UTEP or by 88 total yards.  They just aren't playing well enough right now to warrant being a 4.5-point favorite here.

The Aggies have a huge matchup advantage on the ground in this one.  They rush for 203 yards per game and 6.0 yards per carry.  Western Kentucky allows 211 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry this season. They are going to be able to get whatever they want on the ground, and they are the much more balanced offense in this one as WKU only averages 111 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry.  New Mexico State averages 222 passing yards per game and 9.0 per attempt this season.  WKU only averages 6.7 passing yards per attempt.

The Aggies average 7.2 yards per play on offense and allow 5.6 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play.  WKU averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and allows 6.0 per play on defense, actually getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play.

New Mexico State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine conference games.  The Aggies are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I fully expect the Aggies to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some added insurance in a game that could easily be decided by a FG either way.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday.

15* Alabama/Kentucky ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -10.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide have quietly gone 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS since their loss to Texas and are hitting on all cylinders right now.  They have their sights set on making the SEC Championship Game with a lot to play for the rest of the way.  They will win the SEC West if they win out, so they won't be taking Kentucky lightly this week.

Back-to-back 14-point wins over both Tennessee and LSU were impressive, and now they take a step down in class here against a Kentucky team that fails every time they step up in class.  Case in point being their 51-13 loss at Georgia four games back and their 38-21 home loss to Missouri, followed by their 33-27 home loss to Tennessee.  They ended their 3-game losing streak with a 24-3 win over Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs have a ton of injuries right now and were playing with a backup QB to boot.  I give them zero credit for that victory.

QB Devin Leary is questionable to play for Kentucky, but whoever is under center is going to have zero success against this elite Alabama defense.  I would be surprised if Alabama doesn't hold Kentucky to a season low in points in this one, which will pave the way for them to covering this 10.5-point spread.  Alabama's offense has averaged 38 points in their consecutive wins over LSU and Tennessee.

The Crimson Tide have played the No. 1 toughest schedule in the country while Kentucky has played the 65th-ranked schedule.  That's a difference of 64 spots.  Alabama is 7-0 in its last seven meetings with Kentucky with six of those seven wins coming by double-digits.  It should be more of the same in this meeting with what the Crimson Tide have at stake here.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +14

Georgia Tech has been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They are one win away from bowl eligibility at 5-4 and will be motivated to beat Clemson.  They have already pulled off upsets against two of the best teams in the ACC in Miami as 19-point road dogs and UNC as 11.5-point home dogs, and those two efforts will give them the confidence to hang with Clemson as 14-point road dogs this weekend.

I question Clemson's motivation and what they have left in the tank.  They have played four straight games that went down to the wire against Wake Forest in a 17-12 victory, Miami in a 28-20 loss, NC State in a 24-17 loss and Notre Dame in a 31-23 win.  They are coming off that Notre Dame win, making this a classic letdown spot for them.  Their offense isn't good enough to get margin against this Georgia Tech team that is going to keep coming.  

Georgia Tech's offense put up 46 on UNC and 45 on Virginia the last two weeks and is an explosive unit.  The Yellow Jackets average 6.8 yards per play while Clemson's offense averages 5.4 yards per play.  No question Clemson has the better defense, but they only outgain opponents by 1.0 yards per play on the season while Georgia Tech is solid outgaining opponents by 0.4 yards per play.  That slight edge for the Tigers doesn't warrant them being 14-point favorites here.

Georgia Tech is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games when playing with 6 or less days' rest.  The Yelow Jackets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset win by 10 points or more as a road underdog.  Clemson is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games with a total of 52.5 to 56.  The yellow Jackets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Yellow Jackets played one-score games against Louisville, UNC and Miami already this season, and this is likely to be a one-score game as well.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* Wyoming/UNLV FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV -5.5

The UNLV Rebels have been the most undervalued team in the entire country.  They are 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS this season and legit contenders to win the Mountain West.  They won't be lacking any motivation tonight with Wyoming visiting Las Vegas in what is going to be a hostile atmosphere Friday night inside Allegiant Stadium.

UNLV is 4-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 14.8 points per game.  Wyoming has played six of its first nine games ad home.  While Wyoming is 6-0 at home, they are 0-3 on the road and getting outscored by 17.6 points per game.  They are averaging just 14.7 points per game, 241.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play in their three road games.

Wyoming lacks a consistent passing attack averaging just 150 passing yards per game.  They won't be able to take advantage of UNLV's one weakness, which is defending the pass.  This is strength on strength here.  Wyoming averages 152 rushing yards per game, and they'll be up against a UNLV defense that allows just 126 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  They'll be able to stop Wyoming from running the football, which will be the key to their win and cover.

UNLV has a balanced offensive attack averaging 36.7 points per game and 6.2 yards per play this season with 201 rushing yards per game and 225 passing yards per game.  Wyoming gave up 31-plus points in all three road games this season and isn't as good defensively as they get credit for.  They will have a hard time matching up with UNLV's speed on the turf in this one.

UNLV is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a win by 35 points or more.  Bet UNLV Friday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder just got their star in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back in the lineup and promptly pulled off two consecutive upset victories over the Hawks 126-117 and the Cavaliers 128-120.  They are as healthy as they have been all season and a dangerous team when that's the case.

The Sacramento Kings are still without their star in De'Aaron Fox, and they have been dreadful without him.  The Kings are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games without Fox.  That includes consecutive blowout losses to the Rockets by 25 and 18 points, as well as a narrow 3-point win over the Blazers as 8-point favorites last time out.  This is now a big step up in class here for the Kings against the Thunder tonight.  It won't go well for the Kings here.  

Plays against home teams were the line is +3 to -3 (Sacramento) - after losing by 42 or more points total against the spread in their last five games in the first half of the season are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Thunder Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets -2.5

The Houston Rockets are grossly undervalued right now.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last five games overall despite being underdogs in three of those four games.  They have wins by 9, 18, 25 and 34 points as these games aren't even coming close to the spreads.

Now the Rockets will stay hot tonight against the injury-ravaged New Orleans Pelicans.  The Pelicans are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 18, 18 and 21 points.  They are without CJ McCollum, Jose Alvarado, Naji Marshall and Trey Murphy III.  Both Zion Williamson and Herbert Jones are questionable tonight as well.

New Orleans is 16-32 ATS in its last 48 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pelicans are 6-17 ATS in their last 21 games vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game.  The Pelicans are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games when playing against a marginal winning (51-60%) team.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Houston) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points in their last five games in the first half of the season are 44-18 (71%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on any team (Houston) - vs. division opponents, off three or more consecutive upset wins as underdogs are 48-18 (72.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +12

The Brooklyn Nets are 4-4 SU but 7-0-1 ATS this season.  They haven't lost a single game by more than 10 points and three of their four losses came by 5 points or fewer.  They have been competitive in every game, and they will be competitive against the Celtics tonight.

The Nets will be motivated to revenge that 10-point defeat as it came at the hands of the Celtics on November 4th less than a week ago.  Keep in mind the Nets were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back in that game, while the Celtics were coming in on two days' rest so they had a huge advantage.  They don't have that same advantage tonight.

The Celtics aren't playing well right now going 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were upset on the road by both the Timberwolves and 76ers plus pushing in that 10-point win over the Nets.  The Celtics are back home for the first time since November 1st and there are distractions they will be dealing with back home after a 3-game road trip.  Bet the Nets Friday.

15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Chattanooga +4

Louisville was the worst Power 5 team in all of college basketball last season.  They lost nine consecutive games to begin last season and went 4-28 overall.  They are likely to be the worst Power 5 team in all of college basketball again in 2023-24.

Louisville lost 71-68 to Kentucky Wesleyan in an exhibition game on October 30th.  The Cardinals were life and death in a 94-93 home win over MD-Baltimore Counting as 7.5-point favorites in their official opener.  And now they are going to get upset by Chattanooga, which is coming off an 89-44 win over Covenant in their opener.  I expect the Monarchs to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  

Louisville is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite or PK.  The Cardinals are 0-8 ATS in their last eight November games.  Bet Chattanooga Friday.

15* Hawks/Magic NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on OVER 231.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace, 4th in offensive efficiency and 17th in defensive efficiency.  They have gone for 237 or more combined points in five of their last six games overall.

The Orlando Magic were a good defensive team with Wendell Carter Jr. healthy.  But he has missed the last couple games and is out for three weeks now.  They are going to have to go more small ball without their starting center, and it's going to hurt them defensively.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between Atlanta and Orlando with 251, 259 and 233 combined points.  They have combined for at least 233 points in four of their last five meetings as well.  This total has been set too low tonight folks.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Panthers/Bears NFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 40.5

The Carolina Panthers have one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  They rank 26th in scoring at 17.5 points per game, 28th in total offense at 283.4 yards per game and 32nd at 4.5 yards per play.  They aren't going to be able to score much on this improving Chicago Bears defense.

The Bears have gotten healthy on defense and have quietly allowed just 21.2 points per game in their last five games.  They held the Saints to 301 total yards last week in a fraudulent final as they were -5 in turnovers in a 24-17 loss.  Their defense single-handedly kept them in that game as their offense turned it over in their own territory time and time again.

The Bears have scored 13, 13 and 17 points in three of their four games with Tyson Bagent at quarterback.  He is likely to get the start again Thursday.  He'll be up against an underrated Carolina defense that ranks 8th in total defense at 310.0 yards per game.  The Panthers held the Colts to just 208 total yards last week after holding the Texans to just 229 total yards the week prior.  Those are two offenses that were tearing it up previously to facing Carolina.

Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is 35.5 to 42 points (Carolina) - after losing six or seven of their last eight games, when playing on Thursday night are 21-3 (87.5%) since 1983.  Primetime UNDERS have been absolutely money this season.  They are 22-7 this season and 62-29 over the last two seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Panthers/Bears NFC No-Brainer on Chicago -3

I just added the Chicago Bears -3 Thursday morning as I have been leaning that way all week.  But the line ballooned to -4 with the chance that Justin Fields may return at QB.  Once he was announced out, it got back down to -3 and the value is there to pull the trigger on the Bears.

This Bears team is trending in the right direction even with Tyson Bagent at QB.  They beat the Raiders 30-12 three weeks ago.  Their 30-13 loss to the Chargers was very misleading as they were only outgained by 57 yards.  And last week's loss to the Saints was also misleading as they lost 24-17 despite outgaining the Saints by 67 yards, but they were -5 in turnovers.  Now they are back home where they were last seen beating the Raiders by 18.

The Bears have gotten healthy on defense and have quietly allowed just 21.2 points per game in their last five games.  They held the Saints to 301 yards last week.  Now they will be up against a Carolina Panthers team that has one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  The Panthers rank 26th in scoring at 17.5 points per game, 28th in total offense at 283.4 yards per game and dead last (32nd) at 4.5 yards per play.  They aren't going to be able to score much against this improving Chicago defense.

But the biggest reason I added the Bears -3 this morning is the laundry list of injuries the Panthers are dealing with right now.  The Panthers are going to be without two of their best receivers in DJ Chark Jr. and Laviska Shenault Jr.  Their best defensive player in LB Brian Burns is out after getting injured last week, as is starting CB CJ Henderson.  Starting FS Xavier Woods is questionable as is starting SS Vonn Bell.  The Panthers are an absolute mash unit right now with 21 players on the injury report compared to just 8 for Chicago.

The Panthers are 1-7 SU & 1-6-1 ATS in eight games this season with all seven losses by 3 points or more and six losses by 8 points or more.  Their lone win came at the buzzer on a short FG at home after their bye week.  They followed it up with a 27-13 home loss to the Colts last week, and I don't trust them to perform well here on a short week with all these injuries on the road.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on the road this season with all four losses coming by double-digits and by an average of 15.8 points per game.  Bet the Bears Thursday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Southern Miss +10.5

Southern Miss is trending in the right direction late in the season under Will Hall, one of the more underrated head coaches in the country.  Their last two games have been impressive.  They lost 48-38 at Appalachian State as 15-point dogs in a misleading final as they outgained the Mountaineers and racked up 588 total yards in defeat.  Then last week they crushed LA Monroe 24-7 as 3-point favorites and outgained them 448 to 260, or by 188 total yards.

Now the Golden Eagles are catching double-digits against a Louisiana team that is down to 3rd-string QB Chandler Fields.  They lost 37-17 at Arkansas State last week as 7-point favorites and were outgained for a 4th consecutive game.  That loss basically eliminated them from Sun Belt title contention.

The Rajin' Cajuns lost starting QB Ben Wooldridge early in the season.  It was a blessing in disguise as backup Zeon Criss has been much better, completing 66.7% of his passes averaging 8.0 yards per attempt while also rushing for 492 yards and 6 TD while averaging 6.7 per attempt.  Chandler Fields is a big downgrade and gives them noting on the ground.  He completed 58.2% of his passes last season and averaged 6.2 per attempt.  There's a reason he was demoted to 3rd string this season.

Southern Miss upset Louisiana 39-24 as 2.5-point home dogs last year.  The Golden Eagles are 25-7 ATS in their last 32 road games after outrushing their last opponent by 125 yards or more.  Louisiana is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 home games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 34 or more points per game.  The Rajin' Cajuns are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 10-plus points per game.  Bet Southern Miss Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bucks/Pacers OVER 241

Both the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks are dead nut OVER teams.  The Pacers are 7-1 OVER in their eight games this season while the Bucks are 5-2 OVER in their seven games.  Both teams play fast, are great on offense and terrible on defense.

The Pacers rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, 1st on offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency.  The Bucks rank 6th in pace, 11th in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency.

That makes it no surprise that the OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Pacers and Bucks with 247 or more combined points in all five meetings, and none of the five went to OT.  They have averaged 263.4 combined points per game in those five meetings, which is 22.4 points more than this 241-point total tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Rockets UNDER 221

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team this season.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace and 13th in defensive efficiency.  They just held the Kings to 89 and 97 points in their last two games coming in.

The Lakers are also more of an UNDER team, especially dating back to last season.  They rank 23rd in pace this season and 24th in offensive efficiency.  Instant offense bench player Gabe Vincent is out and Anthony Davis is questionable tonight.  Key defender Rui Hachimura is expected to return from a concussion tonight.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (Houston) - off a home win, a bad team from last season that won 25% to 40% of their games are 29-6 (82.9%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder gave the Golden State Warriors all they wanted in a 139-141 loss without their best player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.  He returned to lead them to a 126-117 home win over the surging Atlanta Hawks last time out.

Now the Thunder are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days with their best player back.  They have been the single-most undervalued team in the NBA over the last three years and are off to an impressive 5-2 ATS start this season.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS this season and remain overvalued here as road favorites.  This is a potential letdown spot for the Cavaliers after beating the Warriors 115-104 at home last time out.  They are getting healthier too and will be a bet on team soon, just not tonight.

Oklahoma City is 27-8 ATS in its last 35 games vs. poor offensive teams scoring 108 points per game or fewer.  The Thunder have won each of their last two meetings with the Cavaliers 112-100 at home and 108-105 on the road, which came earlier this season as 2.5-point dogs.  Now they are 2.5-point home dogs in the rematch in a game I expect them to win outright.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan +19

Toledo is grossly overvalued right now due to its 8-1 record.  The Rockets just have a way of playing to their competition, which is why they are 7-0 SU but just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They have played some of the very worst teams in all of college football close during this span.

Toledo beat San Jose State by 4 as 9.5-point home favorites, Western Michigan by 18 as 21.5-point home favorites, Northern Illinois by 2 as 13.5-point home favorites, UMass by 17 as 19-point road favorites, Ball State by 7 as 17.5-point road favorites and Miami Ohio by 4 as 2-point road favorites.  As you can see, most of their games have come down to the wire.

Last week, they had no business covering in a misleading 31-13 win over Buffalo as 14.5-point favorites.  They only outgained Buffalo by 28 yards in the game.  They returned the opening kickoff for a TD and scored on a long run on their next possession that should have been a touchdown because they fumbled through the end zone.  They needed a goal line stand on Buffalo's final possession to cover, too.

Toledo sits at 5-0 in the conference with a two-game lead over Central Michigan and Northern Illinois in the West Division.  They have margin for error, and I could see them going through the motions against this pesky Eastern Michigan team that has been a cash cow as an underdog under head coach Chris Creighton.

I think it's time to 'buy low' on Eastern Michigan off a missleading 45-21 loss to Western Michigan last time out.  That game was played on October 28th, so they have had extra time to rest and prepare for Toledo.  They have three extra days than the Rockets do.  The Eagles were 4-0 ATS in their four previous games.  I trust in Creighton to use this extra time wisely to come up with the proper game plan to keep this one competitive.

Each of the last two meetings in this series were decided by 3 points, and five of the last six have been decided by 5 points or fewer.  Toledo hasn't beaten Eastern Michigan by more than 17 points in any of the last seven meetings, making for a 7-0 system backing the Eagles pertaining to this 19-point spread.

Creighton is 30-15 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Eastern Michigan.  Creighton is 15-6 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points.  Creighton is 16-4 ATS in road games off a conference loss.  Creighton is 8-1 ATS following a game where they committed four or more turnovers.  Jason Candle is 4-17 ATS following a conference home win as the coach of Toledo.  The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play last game.  Bet Eastern Michigan Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Pacers OVER 241

Both the Indiana Pacers and Utah Jazz are dead nuts OVER teams and matched up tonight in what should be one of the highest scoring games of the season.  The Pacers are 6-1 OVER in their seven games this season while the Jazz are 6-2 OVER in their eight games.

The Pacers rank 2nd in the NBA in pace and 1st in offensive efficiency.  The Jazz rank 9th in the NBA in pace and 15th in offensive efficiency.  The Jazz rank 28th in defensive efficiency while the Pacers rank 26th.

The Pacers and Jazz have combined for at least 238 points in each of their last three meetings, and they are even more OVER teams this season.  Indiana is 15-2 OVER in its last 17 games vs. good rebounding teams outrebounding their opponents by 3-plus boards per game.  Utah is 54-34 OVER in its last 88 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida Atlantic -6

The Florida Atlantic Owls went 35-4 last season and made the Final Four.  Amazingly, all five starters return from that team in Johnell Davis (13.8 PPG), Alijah Martin (13.4 PPG), Vladislav Golden (10.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG), Nick Boyd (8.9 PPG) and Bryan Greenlee (7.3 PPG).  It's safe to say this team is going to have a lot of chemistry from the jump.

Loyola-Chicago went 10-21 last season and 4-14 in Atlantic 10 play.  No question they will be improved this season, but they are getting too much respect here for a team that just isn't as dominant since losing Porter Moser to Oklahoma.  Drew Valentine has not been able to fill the massive shoes he left behind.

Florida Atlantic is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games.  Loyola-Chicago is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 games overall.  Bet Florida Atlantic Wednesday.

15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa -19.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes dominate in non-conference play every year, especially at home.  The Hawkeyes are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 non-conference home games.  They are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games overall.  Fran McCaffery is 100-62 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of IOwa, including 55-29 ATS as a home favorite of 10 points or more.

Paul Sather is 11-26 ATS in non-conference games as the coach of North Dakota.  Sather is 19-40 ATS in road games as their head coach.  North Dakota went 13-20 last season and won't be much better in 2023.

Iowa is undervalued due to losing Kris Murray to the NBA draft.  They bring back seniors Tony Perkins and Patrick McCaffery, and junior Payton Sandfort to form a veteran core.  The freshman class is a good one with Pryce Sandfort, Brock Harding, Owen Freeman and Ladji Dembele.

Freeman will make an immediate impact with his size and skill, and he was teammates with Harding as they won a 4A State Championship together at Moline.  Harding was Mr. Basketball in Illinois in 2023.  Pryce Sandfort is Payton's younger brother and was Iowa's Mr. Basketball last season.  Dembele was a 4-start recruit from Africa and has been crushing it in the weight room, getting up to 260 pounds.  Bet Iowa Tuesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Michigan -3

Western Michigan has the rest and preparation advantage here over Central Michigan.  They last played on October 28th, while Central Michigan last played on October 31st.  I think the Chippewas are overvalued here after upsetting Northern Illinois 37-31 at home.  That was the aberration because they had been playing terribly prior to that upset win.

The Chippewas had gone 0-4 ATS in their previous four games.  They lost 24-17 at Ball State as 5-point favorites, only beat Akron 17-10 as 10.5-point home favorites, lost 37-13 at Buffalo as 2.5-point favorites and only beat Eastern Michigan by 3 as 10-point home favorites.  They struggled against all of the worst teams in the MAC during that stretch.

Now they have to go on the road to face a rested Western Michigan team that is quietly playing well right now.  They are coming off a 45-21 win at Eastern Michigan as a 3-point favorite.  They took Ohio to the wire as 16.5-point road dogs in a 20-17 loss the game prior.  They gave Miami Ohio all they could handle the game prior.  They covered in a 28-41 loss at Missisippi State as 21.5-point dogs.  They blasted Ball State 42-24 as 1.5-point favorites.  They also covered in a loss at Toledo and deserved to cover in a loss at Iowa.  They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and should be 6-1 ATS their last seven, so they are a way undervalued commodity.

Central Michigan lacks a passing game averaging just 180.3 passing yards per game.  They rush for 159.4 yards per game and 4.1 per carry and rank 101st in the country in total offense.  Western Michigan allows 141.6 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry and can stop the run pretty well.  The Broncos average 170 rushing yards per game on offense and will be up against a CMU defense that ranks 110th in the country allowing 4.8 yards per carry.  They also have more balance with 211 passing yards per game, and are up against a CMU defense that ranks 115th against the pass and 118th at 8.2 yards per attempt.

WMU has played six road games and only three home games.  They are 2-1 at home this season.  CMU is 1-4 on the road compared to 4-0 at home.  The Broncos cannot afford another loss if they want to get bowl eligible and have a legit shot to run the table.  It starts with a home win over Central Michigan tonight.  Bet Western Michigan Tuesday.

20* USC/Kansas State CBB Season Opener on USC -2.5

USC returns leading scorer Boogie Ellis, who averaged 17.7 points per game last season and is the USC Preseason Player of the Year.  They added ESPN's No. 1-ranked recruit in the class of 2023 in Isaiah Collier, who was named the co-MVP of the McDonald's All-American game after scoring 25 points.  

Junior guard Kobe Johnson and 6-foot-11 senior Joshua Morgan are both great defensively and can score.  7-foot-1 Vincent Iwuchukwu returns from a healthy scorer and senior DJ Rodman transfers in from Washington State.  They will be just fine as they await the debut of Bronny James, who had a health scare with his heart.

Kansas State is overvalued after making a run to the Elite 8 last year.  Gone to the NBA are Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, who combined to average 35 of K-State's 76.2 points per game last year.  The leading return scorer is Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 boards last season.  But Tomlin is suspended to start the season, leaving the Wildcats with not much experience at all in what will be a rebuilding year.

This game will be played on a neutral court, but USC will have the crowd advantage with the short trip to Paradise, NV at T-Mobile Arena.  Andy Enfield is 9-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3 points or less or PK as the coach of USC.  Bet USC Monday.

15* Pelicans/Nuggets NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 221.5

A couple key injuries to both teams has me backing the UNDER between the New Orleans Pelicans and Denver Nuggets tonight.  The Pelicans are going to be without CJ McCollum (21.7 PPG, 5.7 APG) who has been playing well and started each of the first six games for the Pelicans.  Their offense isn't going to run near as smoothly without him.

The key to the Nuggets success over the last several season has been Nikola Jokic paired with Jamaal Murray.  They just haven't been nearly as good when Murray has been sidelined, especially offensively.  Well, they will be without Murray (16.3 PPG, 7.4 APG) tonight with a quad injury.

The Pelicans and Nuggets have combined for 195 and 197 points in two of their last three meetings.  They have combined for 221 or fewer points at the end of regulation in nine of their last 13 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Chargers/Jets ESPN No-Brainer on New York +3.5

The Los Angeles Chargers should not be 3.5-point road favorites over the New York Jets this week.  I have these teams power-rated similarly as average teams, so when adjusting for home-field advantage, the Jets should be favored.  Instead, we are getting +3.5 on the home team here which is tremendous value.

What more do the Jets have to do to get some respect? They are 3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their only loss during this stretch came by 3 points to Kansas City.  They upset Philadelphia outright as home underdogs.  They also upset Buffalo outright in the opener as home dogs.  If they can beat or play with all three of those teams at home, they can certainly beat or lose by 3 points or less to the Chargers.

What makes the Jets an average team is having one of the best defenses in the NFL coupled with a great rushing attack behind Breece Hall.  They got great news on the injury front this week as LT Mekhi Becton, G Laken Tomlinson and C Joe Tippmann all returned to practice and should be good to go.  They also opened the 21-day practice window on LT Duane Brown to return from injured reserve.  They are pretty much fully healthy defensively and will give the Chargers fits.

The Chargers are getting too much respect for their 30-13 home win over the Bears last week on Sunday Night Football in a prime time game.  They actually only outgained the Bears by 57 yards as it was closer than the final score.  They also beat a rookie QB for the Bears who was playing in his first ever road game.

When the Chargers have stepped up in class against good defenses like the Jets, they have lost.  They lost 31-17 at Kansas City, 20-17 at home to Dallas, 27-24 at Tennessee and 36-34 to Miami.  As you can see against the two best defenses they faced, they only managed 17 points against the Chiefs and 17 against the Cowboys.  I think the Jets are more than capable of holding them to 17 points or fewer in this one.  They held the Chiefs to 23, the Bills to 16 and the Eagles to 14 to show what they are capable of.

The Chargers were already without WR Mike Williams which has taken away a lot of their explosiveness on offense because he was such a great deep threat.  Josh Palmer continues to battle a knee injury and isn't 100%.  Palmer missed practice on Thursday which is a good sign he won't be ready to play.  Herbert's only two reliable weapons right now at Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler out of the backfield.  Plus, the Chargers have a leaky defense that ranks 31st in total defense at 391 yards per game and 30th at 5.9 yards per play.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY Jets) - a slow starting team getting outscored by 5-plus points in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Jets are undervalued right now after playing in tough conditions in a 13-10 (OT) win over the Giants, who are playing everyone tough right now.  The Chargers are overvalued off their blowout win over the lowly Bears.  Bet the Jets Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Rockets UNDER 219

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Rockets and Kings.  The Rockets won the first meeting 107-89 for just 196 combined points with a total of 220.5.  Now the total is 219 in the rematch, and they haven't adjusted it down low enough.

The Kings are really struggling offensively since losing their best player in PG De'Aaron Fox to injury.  They managed just 101 points on 40.9% shooting against the Warriors and 89 points on 38.1% shooting against the Rockets.  They are really lost without him and forced to play a different game, slowing it down and relying more on defense.

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 28th in pace this season and 22nd in offensive efficiency.  They are scoring just 107.6 points per game on 45.9% shooting this season.

Houston is 13-4 UNDER in its last 17 games following an upset win as an underdog.  The Rockets are 14-4 UNDER in their last 18 games as a home dog of 6 points or less.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic ML -115

The Dallas Mavericks are overvalued right now due to a 5-1 start this season against a very soft schedule.  Their five wins have come against the Spurs, Nets, Grizzlies, Bulls and Hornets with four of them coming by single-digits.  Their lone step up in class game they lost by 11 at Denver.

This is also a very tough spot for the Mavericks playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and in their 3rd different city in four days.  Luka Doncic played 36 minutes and Kyrie Irving 34 in an unimpressive 124-118 win over Charlottte as 11.5-point favorites last night.  The Hornets were on the 2nd of a back-to-back and nearly pulled the upset.

Now they must travel to Orlando overnight and play a Magic team that I believe is the most underrated in the NBA this season.  The Magic are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their six games this season with their two losses both coming on the road to the Clippers and the Lakers (by 3).  The loss to the Clippers was the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They avenged that loss to the Lakers by beating them by 19 at home in the rematch last time out.

The Magic rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating while the Mavericks rank 22nd.  Poor defense is going to hurt the Magic all season, while the Magic will be a team you can rely on because they play defense consistently.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-1 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Magic on the Money Line Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER 218.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  The Grizzlies and Blazers will be playing for a 2nd time in 3 days Sunday in Portland.  The first game on Friday went to OT but was tied 102-102 at the end of regulation for just 204 combined points.  There's clearly value on the UNDER 218.5 in the rematch, and I think we cash this with ease barring OT.

The Blazers are going to be without their two young, talented guards in Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons again tonight.  They were already struggling offensively with these two, and it's only going to get worse without them.

The Memphis Grizzlies are 0-6 this season and struggling offensively without JA Morant and four other key players right now.  They rank dead last (30th) in offensive efficiency this season.  The Blazers are 28th in offensive efficiency, so these are the two of the three worst offensive teams in the NBA in the early going.

Portland also ranks 25th in pace and will slow it down playing at home, especially without both Henderson and Simons.  Familiarity will also force these teams to play at a slower pace because the defenses know what to expect now, which makes it tougher sledding for the offenses to try and get the ball in the positions they want to.

The Blazers are 26-14 UNDER in their last 40 games as home underdogs.  The UNDER is 6-3 in the their last nine meetings with the Grizzlies and would be 7-2 if not for OT.  Memphis is 14-5 UNDER in its last 19 road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The UNDER is 11-3 in Grizzlies last 14 road games following two or more consecutive losses.  Memphis is 17-4 UNDER in its last 21 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Bills/Bengals NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 48

The Buffalo Bills are without three of their best defenders in DT DaQuon Jones, LB Matt Milano and CB Tre'Davious White.  Their defense has taken a huge step back since losing those top three guys against Jacksonville in London.

The Bills gave up 474 total yards to the Jaguars in that loss in London.  They were fortunate to escape with a win over the Giants who failed twice from the 1-yard line and gained 317 total yards in that game with Tyrod Taylor at QB and without nearly their entire offensive line.  And then a previously dormant New England offense put up 29 points and 357 total yards on the Bills.  The Bills were decent against the Bucs last week holding them to 18 points and 302 total yards.

But this is a big step up in class now for this Buffalo defense, which will get exposed like they did against Jacksonville.  After facing Tyrod Taylor, Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield, now the Bills have to face Joe Burrow and this surging Cincinnati offense.  The Bengals put up 34 points against the Cardinals three weeks ago, were held to 17 points by the Seahawks two weeks ago in tough windy conditions, but then busted out again for 31 points and 400 total yards on the San Francisco 49ers last week.

Joe Burrow is back to playing at an MVP level with his calf injury clearly behind him.  He is completing 78% of his passes with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio over the last three games.  The offense is basically fully healthy right now.  Burrow and the Bengals lit up the Bills for 27 points and 412 total yards in the playoffs last year to knock them out.

Josh Allen and this Buffalo offense are going to have to try and keep pace with the opposition with their leaky defense.  I think Allen and company can match Burrow and the Bengals score for score in this one.  This Cincinnati defense has taken a big step back this year.  And they just lost their best defensive lineman in DE Trey Hendrickson to an ankle injury last week.

The Bengals are allowing 370 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season.  They gave up 460 yards against hte 49ers last week in a misleading win.  They also gave up 381 total yards to the Seahawks the previous week in a misleading win.  They've done a good job of stopping opponents in the red zone to keep them off the scoreboard, but now they face a Buffalo offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in red zone TD percentage at 69%.  The Bills will capitalize on their opportunities.  They score 27.8 points per game, average 377 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season.

The weather forecast looks good for a shootout in Cincinnati Sunday night with temps in the 50's and only 3 MPH winds.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Warriors/Cavs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland ML -120

The Golden State Warriors are coming off two straight buzzer-beater wins over the Kings (by 1) and Thunder (by 2).  But the Kings were without their best player in De'Aaron Fox and the Thunder were without their best player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.  I think this is a letdown spot for the Warriors off those two wins, and now they face a healthy Cleveland Cavaliers team on the road tonight.

The Cavaliers finally got Jarrett Allen and Darius Garland back from injury.  Now we're going to see what this team is capable of after a shaky 2-4 start that is allowing us to 'buy low' on them tonight.  I look for their best effort here with the Warriors coming to town Sunday night.  And we'll 'sell high' on the Warriors following five consecutive victories.

Golden State is 17-34 ATS in its last 51 road games.  Bet the Cavaliers Sunday.

15* Giants/Raiders Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 37

The New York Giants have gone under the total in six consecutive games.  The Las Vegas Raiders have gone under the total in five of their last six games.  This is a great 'buy low' opportunity to back an OVER between these teams as a result this week.

There's several reasons to believe that both these offense will have success this week.  The Raiders wipe the slate clean by firing head coach Josh McDaniels and their GM.  They will be turning to rookie QB Aidan O'Connell the rest of the way.  He was great in the preseason and got his feet wet against the Chargers.  I expect the Raiders to open up the playbook and let him do what he does best, which is sit back in the shot gun and sling it around the yard.  O'Connell certainly is no downgrade from Jimmy G or Brian Hoyer as this Raiders offense was lifeless with those two prior.  He'll be up against a Giants defense that ranks 28th in the NFL allowing 5.6 yards per play.

On the Giants side of things, they are expected to get back QB Daniel Jones this week.  He is an upgrade over Tyrod Tayor, who started the last three games for the Giants in lackluster offensive performances.  The offensive line is getting healthier, and now Saquon Barkley is back to carrying a full workload.  This Giants offense is in line for one of their biggest performances of the season.

This Raiders defense allowed 30 points to the Bears two weeks ago and 26 points and 486 total yards to the Lions last week.  The defense was on the field for most of that game Monday night, and now they will be gassed coming into this game on a short week.  Plus, the Raiders have injuries up and down their defense that are going to make things much easier for this Giants offense.  New York just traded away Leonard Williams, one of their best defensive linemen.  They won't be as stout on that side of the ball without him.

I love backing OVERS in non-conference games because teams aren't familiar with one another and thus harder to prepare for, which favors the offenses.  That's especially the case this week with both of these teams starting new quarterbacks.  I also like backing OVERS between two bad teams because there tends to be more of a care-free attitude, which also favors offense.

The Giants have played in three straight bad weather games, which is a big reason each of their last three games stayed under the total.  But the few times they have played in good weather games, they have easily topped this 37-point total.  They went for 59 combined points at Arizona in a dome, 42 combined points at San Francisco and 47 combined points at Miami.  This will be another dome game in Las Vegas, which also favors the OVER.

The Raiders would be 6-1 to the OVER with a total of 37 or less in their last seven games, combining with their opponents for 38-plus points in six of those seven.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Dolphins/Chiefs AFC Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami +2

I like the fact that Miami traveled out to Germany on Monday night and arrived Tuesday morning.  They have had more time to acclimate to the jet lag that comes with this trip.  The Chiefs aren't leaving until Thursday afternoon and won't have as much time to acclimate.

We saw the Ravens leave early in the week while the Titans went late in the week in the last London game.  The Ravens jumped out to an 18-3 halftime lead and were clearly more ready to play.  I think that could be the case here with the Dolphins more ready to play than the Chiefs.

The Dolphins are getting healthier on the offensive line and should get LT Terron Armstead and C Connor Williams back this week.  They also just got Jalen Ramsey back from injury last week for the first time this season, and he made an instant impact with an interception against the Patriots.

I have faded the Dolphins in each of their two losses at Buffalo and at Philadelphia this season.  But those were tough road games and they weren't at full strength in either of them.  The Bills were pissed off and wanting to prove a point, while the Dolphins were missing three starters on the offensive line against the Eagles.

This is being played on a neutral field and I think the Dolphins match up well with the Chiefs.  I also think the Dolphins have heard all week about how they can't beat a good team because they are 6-2 this season, but both losses came against the two best teams they faced.  They want to make a statement here against the defending Super Bowl champs, and I think they are primed to do so now that they are healthy.

The Chiefs lost LB Nick Bolton and now fellow LB Willie Gay is questionable.  Their defense has been good to this point, but we could see them slip a little here in the immediate future with these injuries at LB.  This is a big step up in class for this Chiefs defense after facing the Broncos twice, the Bears, Jets, Vikings, and the Chargers in their last six games coming in.  So their 6-2 record is a little fraudulent as well with their only real quality win being against Jacksonville.

The extra travel won't give them as much time to prepare for this Miami offense, which has been the best in the NFL this season at 33.9 points per game, 453.3 yards per game and 7.5 yards per play.  Meanwhile, this Chiefs offense is just broken.  They have been held to 20 points or fewer four times already this season.  They can't get separation and they are too predictable relying so much on Travis Kelce.  The Dolphins will game plan around stopping Kelce like the Broncos did last week, limiting him to 6 receptions for 58 yards in a 24-9 victory.

The Chiefs won't be able to run the ball on this Miami defense, which has allowed 108 or fewer rushing yards in seven consecutive games.  They allow just 329 yards per game and 5.4 per play overall and are much better on this side of the ball than they get credit for, especially with a healthy Ramsey back now which will open up Vic Fangio's defense.  There's talk of Ramsey covering Kelce which would be a wise move, and that's why I love this matchup for Miami.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +8.5

The Utah Jazz are coming off a tough 2-point home loss to the Orlando Magic.  That followed up a 133-109 home win over Memphis the previous night as it was the 2nd of a back-to-back for them.  They also played the defending champion Nuggets tough in a 102-110 road loss as 8.5-point road dogs in their previous game.  This team is trending in the right direction.

Speaking of the defending champion Nuggets, the Timberwolves just beat them 110-89 at home to avenge their playoff loss to the Nuggets last season.  They will be flat as a pancake off such a big win.  I don't expect them to play with the kind of intensity tonight that it's going to take to put away the Jazz by 9-plus points.

Home-court advantage meant nothing in this series last season.  The road team went 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS with the Jazz winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs and outright as 8-point road dogs.  Utah is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games after losing two of its last three games.  The Jazz are 35-15 ATS in their last 50 games as underdogs.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* Miami/NC State ACC ANNIHILATOR on NC State +4.5

The Miami Hurricanes are one of the most overvalued teams in the country right now.  They should not be favored on the road over the NC State Wolfpack Saturday night.  We'll gladly take this value and take these points in a game I think NC State wins outright.

Miami opened 4-0 against a soft schedule, but has since gone 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS and were fortunate to cover in the lone game they did.  They lost 23-20 at home to Georgia Tech as 19-point favorites which started this skid.  They then lost 31-41 at UNC as 2.5-point dogs.  They beat Clemson 28-20 at home as 5.5-point dogs, and Clemson is down this season.  And they were life and death with Virginia in a 29-26 (OT) win as 18.5-point home favorites last week.  They were outgained 377 to 276 by Virginia, or by 101 total yards.

NC State has played very well at home of late.  They are coming off a 24-17 win as 10-point home dogs to Clemson last week.  They had a bye prior to that game, so they will still be fresh here.  Miami will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and is running out of gas.  NC State also beat Marshall 48-41 as 6.5-point home favorites.  They only lost 13-10 to Louisville as 3.5-point dogs, and Louisville is 7-1 this season and a ACC title contender.

Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 conference games.  Mario Cristobal is 0-7 ATS in the last seven games vs. teams that allow 58% or higher completions as the coach of Miami. Cristobal is 2-12 ATS when playing with 6 or less days' rest as the coach of Miami.  Bet NC State Saturday.

15* Washington/USC ABC ANNIHILATOR on Washington -3

USC is now 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall while failing to cover the spread by a combined 100.5 points, or an average of 16.8 points per game.  They only beat Arizona State by 14, Colorado by 7 and Arizona by 2 before losing by 28 to Notre Dame.  The Trojans have played such a soft schedule this season and finally met their match against Notre Dame.

They have since lost outright by 2 at home as 7-point favorites against Utah and were life and death with Cal as 10-point favorites, escaping with a 1-point victory.  Now USC will face its stiffest test of the season against unbeaten Washington, and the Trojans are once again getting too much respect as only 3-point home dogs.

We are getting Washington at a discount because they have failed to cover the spread in their last two games against Arizona State and Stanford.  But the Huskies were in a massive letdown spot following the home win over Oregon the game prior.  No question a team like USC is going to get their attention, and I think we can expect Washington's best effort this week.  Especially after they didn't even open in the Top 4 in the college football playoff rankings, which will add to their motivation to try and get some national recognition on this Nationally televised game on ABC Saturday night.

Washington has the better offense and the better defense in this matchup.  The Huskies average 8.0 yards per play on offense and allow 5.3 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.7 yards per play.  The Trojans average 7.5 yards per play on offense and allow 5.9 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play.  The Trojans also allow 32.6 points per game while the Huskies only allow 20.6 points per game.

Washington had a bye prior to the Oregon game and will only be playing for a 4th consecutive week here.  USC is a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week.  The defense is gassed playing in shootout after shootout and won't have anything left in the tank for this Washington offense.  The Trojans have allowed 49, 34, 48, 41 and 41 points in their last five games, respectively.  Bet Washington Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +4

The Orlando Magic will be out for revenge from a 103-106 road loss to the Lakers are 3-point underdogs on October 30th just a few days ago.  Now they are 4-point home underdogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment.

I know the Magic will be without Wendell Carter Jr., but they are a deep team and can handle the loss.  The Lakers are without Gabe Vincent and Rui Hachimura and could be without Taurean Prince tonight.  They aren't a very deep team and can't afford these losses.

While the Magic will be highly motivated for revenge, the Lakers won't be that motivated at all to beat the Magic for the 2nd time in a week.  That's especially the case considering it's also a massive letdown spot for the Lakers coming off a 130-125 (OT) win over the Clippers that ended an 11-game losing streak in the series.  The Lakers will be flat as a pancake tonight.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State -1

The Iowa State Cyclones have quietly gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming on the road to Oklahoma.  They beat Oklahoma State 34-27 at home, beat TCU 27-14 at home, beat Cincinnati 30-10 on the road and beat Baylor 30-18 on the road.  The Cyclones just seem to play better when expectations are low, and they are flying under the radar right now.

This will be a great atmosphere with a sold out crowd at Jack Trice Stadium for a 7:00 EST kickoff Saturday night.  The Cyclones want revenge from a 14-11 loss at Kansas last year in one of the most misleading losses of the season.  They outgained Kansas 323 to 215, or by 108 total yards, but lost by 3.  They were last seen beating Kansas 59-7 in their last home meeting.  They will be going for their 6th win of the season for bowl eligibility and are tied for 1st place in the Big 12, so they won't be lacking any motivation.

The spot couldn't be worse for Kansas.  They are coming off their first win over Oklahoma since 1997.  It was their first regular season win over a Top 10 opponent since 1995, and their first win over a Top 10 opponent in Lawrence since 1984.  It was a historic win for Kansas and head coach Lance Leipold as they are now bowl eligible for a second consecutive season.  This has letdown spot written all over it for the Jayhawks.

The Sooners have been trending in the wrong direction since beating Texas.  They escaped with a 2-point win over UCF at home the previous week needing to stop a 2-point conversion.  Their luck ran out last week against Kansas, so the win wasn't as impressive as it looked on paper.  The Sooners also helped give them the game by committing three turnovers.

There is a huge discrepancy between these two defenses.  Iowa State plays defense and Kansas doesn't.  The Cyclones allow 19.8 points per game, 330 yards per game and 4.8 per play this season to rank 28th in total defense, 24th in scoring defense and 20th in yards per play allowed.  Kansas ranks 89th in scoring defense allowing 28.1 points per game, 100th in total defense at 401.6 yards per game and 100th with 6.0 yards per play allowed.

Kansas has not fared well on the road this season going 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in true road games.  They only beat Nevada 31-24 as a 28-point road favorite, and Nevada is one of the worst teams in all of college football.  They lost 40-14 at Texas as 15.5-point dogs in a game that wasn't even that close.  They allowed 661 yards to Texas.  And they lost 39-32 at Oklahoma State as 2.5-point favorites while giving up 554 total yards to the Cowboys.

Kansas is now 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in its last six Big 12 road games dating back to last season with all six losses coming by 7 points or more.  Kansas hasn't won at Iowa State since 2008.  Plays against road underdogs (Kansas) - off an upset conference win as an underdog of 6 points or more against an opponent that is off a double-digit road win are 60-28 (68.2%) ATS since 1992.  Matt Campbell is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams that average 8.5 or more yards per attempt as the coach of the Cyclones.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah State -2.5

Both Utah State and San Diego State sit at 3-5 this season.  But these records are now created equal.  Utah State is unfortunate to be 3-5, while San Diego State is fortunate to be 3-5.  When you look at the numbers, there's a big difference between these teams and Utah State is favored on the road here for good reason.

Brady Hoke is used to competing for Mountain West titles but he has lost his touch.  It's unlikely he'll be back after this season, and this just looks like a dead Aztecs team right now.  They are coming off a 6-0 home loss to Nevada, which is one of the worst teams in all of college football.  They were life and death the game prior against Hawaii and were fortunate to win that game considering Hawaii had 480 total yards but committed four costly turnovers.  And the week prior they were flat as a pancake in a 49-10 loss at Air Force.

Utah State played Air Force much tougher than San Diego State did.  They also took both James Madison and Fresno State to the wire, which are the top two teams in the Sun Belt and Mountain West, respectively.  I know the Aggies are going to show up every week for head coach Gary Anderson as he gets the most out of his teams.

Let's look at the numbers to see why Utah State is by far the superior team.  The Aggies are averaging 35.3 points pre game, 451 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play on offense while allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play.

San Diego State is gaining just 5.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 6.3 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play.  The Aztecs have a terrible offense every year and this season has been no exception, averaging just 19.6 points per game.  The difference is they usually have a great defense, but this is their worst defense in over a decade.  They allow 28.1 points per game, 419 yards per game and 6.3 per play this season.  Most alarming is the 5.0 yards per carry they are giving up on the ground.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Utah State last won 46-13 at San Diego State in 2021.  The Aztecs will have zero home-field advantage for this one as fans just aren't supporting this 3-5 team.  They were fortunate to win their first two home games this season against Ohio and Idaho State by a single score.  They have since lost their last three home games by 25 to UCLA, by 3 to Boise State and that shutout loss to Nevada.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota ML -125

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are tied for first place in the Big Ten West and playing their best football of the season right now.  They upset Iowa in Iowa City two weeks ago while limiting the Hawkeyes to just 127 total yards and forcing three turnovers.  They avoided the letdown last week, winning 27-12 at home against Michigan State while outgaining them by 101 yard and holding them to 299 yards.

They certainly won't let down against Illinois here.  Illinois was in Big Ten West title contention last year, but now they are just trying to make a bowl game and finding it hard to be motivated right now sitting at 3-5 on the season.  They are coming off a heartbreaking home loss to Wisconsin where they blew it late in the 4th quarter, and it will be hard for them to get back up off the mat now.

Illinois has been grossly overvalued all season after what they did last year and continue to be this week as basically a PK against Minnesota on the road.  Illinois is 1-7 ATS in their eight games this season.  That includes a 44-19 loss at Purdue, a 6-point win home win over a bad FAU team as 16-point favorites, and an upset home loss to Nebraska by 17.

The team that runs the football with more success is going to win this game.  That team is going to be Minnesota.  The Gophers average 175 rushing yards per game and hold opponents to just 118 rushing yards per game.  Illinois averages just 137 rushing yards per game and allows 161 rushing yards per game.  The Fighting Illini aren't nearly as dominant on the ground as they were last season, which is the biggest reason for their demise this season.  Bet Minnesota on the Money Line Saturday.

15* Missouri/Georgia SEC ANNIHILATOR on Missouri +16

The Missouri Tigers are a legit SEC East title contender this season and clearly the 2nd-best team in the division.  Now they are out to prove it this weekend against the Georgia Bulldogs.  The spot couldn't be better for the Tigers as they are coming off a bye week and have had two full weeks to prepare for the defending champs.

The spot couldn't be much worse for Georgia, coming off a 43-20 win over their biggest rivals in the Florida Gators last week.  That now makes this a flat spot for the Bulldogs.  We saw this play out last year as Missouri nearly upset Georgia, losing 26-22 as 31-point home dogs.  They proved they could play with Georgia last year, and now Missouri is better this year while Georgia is down.

That has been evident with the Bulldogs going 2-5-1 ATS in their eight games this season.  They only beat South Carolina by 10, Auburn by 7 and Vanderbilt by 17.  They just have a way of playing up or down to their competition.  Those are three of the worst teams in the SEC and the Bulldogs were in dog fights with all three of them.

Missouri is very close to being 8-0 this season.  They blew a late 4-point lead to LSU, and that loss doesn't look too bad now with how well LSU is playing.  They beat South Carolina by 22 at home, Kentucky by 17 on the road and Vanderbilt by 17 on the road.  They also upset Kansas State at home, and Kansas State is playing very well right now.  

The Tigers have elite numbers averaging 6.7 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.5 yards per play. They have also played a much tougher schedule than Georgia ranking 51st in SOS while Georgia ranks 81st in SOS.  This will be Georgia's stiffest test of the season thus far, and not having TE Brock Bowers may really hurt them this week as he was Carson Beck's favorite target.  Bowers leads the team with 41 receptions for 567 yards and 4 TD.

Kerby Smart is 1-8 ATS in home games off three straight conference wins as the coach of Georgia.  The Bulldogs are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 home games off three straight conference wins.  Georgia is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following a cover as a double-digit favorite.  The Bulldogs are 4-16 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game.  Bet Missouri Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech +10

Virginia Tech is a team on the rise and flying under the radar going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Hokies crushed Pittsburgh 38-21 as 2.5-point home dogs while outgaining the Panthers 427 to 273, or by 154 total yards.  The Hokies covered in a 17-39 loss at Florida State as 24-point dogs in a game that was closer than the final score showed, only getting outgained by 139 yards against what looks to be a national title contender in the Seminoles.  

The Hokies then crushed Wake Forest 30-13 two weeks ago and outgained the Demon Deacons 463 to 262, or by 201 total yards.  And last week they crushed Syracuse 38-10 while outgaining the Orange 528 to 138, or by 390 total yards.  That game was played on Thursday so the Hokies have extra time to rest and prepare for Louisville this Saturday.

The key to Virginia Tech's resurgence has been great defense and the play of their quarterback.  Kyron Drones took over for an injured Grant Wells and it was a blessing in disguise for the Hokies.  Drones is completing 59% of his passes for 1,236 yards with a 7-to-1 TD/NT ratio, while also rushing for 400 yards and 4 scores.  His dual-threat ability makes this offense much more dynamic.

The Hokies have what it takes to be competitive against Louisville, which I think is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Cardinals are 7-1 against a very soft schedule up to this point.  Their 38-21 loss to Pittsburgh just shows how vulnerable this team can be.  Pittsburgh went on to lose to a bad Wake Forest team and to get blasted 58-7 by Notre Dame.  Keep in mind Louisville was in dog fights against both NC State and Indiana earlier this season as well.  This one will go down to the wire.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona State +11

I've been very impressed with Arizona State in recent weeks against quality competition.  The Sun Devils have gotten healthier and only lost by 14 to USC as 34-point dogs, by 3 at Cal as 13-point dogs and by 3 at home to Colorado as 3-point dogs.  They outgained California 430 to 326, or by 104 yards.  They outgained Colorado 392 to 289, or by 103 yards.  They should have won both of those games.

The Sun Devils returned from their bye and I released them as my 25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR as +28.5 dogs at Washington.  They delivered in a big way and went into halftime with a 7-3 lead.  They would have pulled off the outright upset if not for an 89-yard INT return for a TD by Washington in the 4th quarter when they were going in for a score to try and take and 8-point lead.

No other defense has held Heisman Trophy contender Michael Penix Jr. in check like Arizona State did.  He went just 27-of-42 passing for 275 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions, averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt.  Most felt Washington had the best offense in the country coming into that game.

I was back on Arizona State +6 last week as they pulled the 38-27 upset victory over Washington State at home while racking up 509 total yards on the Cougars.  And now I'm back on ASU again this week as this team just continues to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers due to their misleading 2-6 record.

But this is a play against Utah as much as anything.  The Utes won the Pac-12 Championship each of the last two seasons and are used to contending for conference titles.  Well, they are all but eliminated from title contention now after losing 35-6 at home to Oregon last week.  That was a rare home loss for the Utes, and it just shows how far they have fallen this season by not having a legit QB and with all the injuries they have sustained.

Asking Utah to get margin and win by double-digits against ASU with their current offense is asking too much.  Oregon held Utah to just 241 total yards.  Oregon State held Utah to 210 total yards.  UCLA held Utah to 219 total yards.  Utah is actually getting outgained by 0.3 yards per play on the season, while ASU is dead even, averaging 5.2 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 per play on defense.  They have been even better since getting healthy in Pac-12 play.  Utah is overvalued due to his misleading 6-2 record.

Arizona State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games overall while covering the spread by a combined 66 points in those five games.  They remain grossly undervalued here as double-digit road dogs to a Utah team that is going to be flat after being eliminated from Pac-12 title contention with that loss to Oregon.  This is also an early start time at 2:00 EST which isn't nearly as big of a home-field advantage for Utah as when games are played in Salt Lake City at night.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

15* Texas A&M/Ole Miss ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss -3

Ole Miss sits at 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS this season with a legit chance to win the SEC West.  The Rebels are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season with a massive home-field advantage.  They should be more than 3-point home favorites over the disappointing Texas A&M Aggies today.

Texas A&M sits at 5-3 and out of SEC title contention.  They were lackluster in their 30-17 home win over a bad, injury-ravaged South Carolina team last week.  And I don't expect them to fire here against Ole Miss, either.  After all, the Aggies are now 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight true road games.  They lost 48-33 at Miami and 20-13 at Tennessee in their only two true road games this season.

Ole Miss beat LSU at home earlier this season to show what they are capable of at home.  They put up 55 points and 716 total yards on the Tigers in that contest.  Their defense has been very good this season, holding opponents to 21.4 points per game and 5.0 yards per play.  Texas A&M struggles on offense this season, especially since losing QB Conner Weigman to injury.  Ole Miss is basically fully healthy coming into this one and one of the most healthy teams in the country.

Jimbo Fisher is 1-12 ATS vs. teams that commit 0.75 or fewer turnovers per game as a head coach.  Fisher is 0-6 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less as the coach of Texas A&M having never covered in this situation.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +9.5

The Miami Heat needed the play-in round just to make the playoffs as a No. 8 seed last year.  They struggled in the regular season and were one of the biggest money burners in the NBA.  But they turned it on in the playoffs to make it all the way to the NBA Finals.  Postseason Miami is much better than regular season Miami.

That is playing out in the early going again this season.  The Heat whiffed on Damian Lillard while also losing two key role players in Gabe Vincent and Max Strus in the offseason.  The Heat are 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS through five games with their lone win coming by a single point at home against the lowly Detroit Pistons as 9.5-point favorites.  They lost by 8 at Boston, by 16 at Minnesota and by 8 at Milwaukee.  They were also upset as 6.5-point home favorites by the Nets.

I know the Wizards are rebuilding and not very good, but Miami cannot be expected to win by double-digits against anyone right now, which is what it's going to take to beat us.  The Wizards have played a tough schedule with their three losses to Indiana, Boston and Atlanta, and they covered in that loss to the Hawks.  They also beat Memphis at home.  They can hang with the Heat tonight.

Each of the last four meetings between Washington and Miami were decided by 8 points or less.  Six of the last seven meetings were decided by 8 points or less as well.  Miami is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

20* Boston College/Syracuse ESPN No-Brainer on Boston College ML +125

These are two teams trending in opposite directions but the oddsmakers and betting public haven't caught up to it yet.  Boston College is on the rise and currently a better football team than Syracuse, which has hit a wall in the 2nd half of the season as usual under Dino Babers. Boston College should not be an underdog to Syracuse Friday night.

Syracuse opened 4-0 against one of the easiest schedules in the country with wins over Colgate, Western Michigan and Army at home as well as a rebuilding Purdue team on the road.  They have since stepped up in class and fallen flat on their faces, going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in thier last four games.  They lost 31-14 at home to Clemson, 40-7 at North Carolina, 41-3 at Florida State and 38-10 at Virginia Tech.  The Orange were outscored a combined 140-34 in those four defeats.  They are dead in the water right now and lacking motivation to finish out the season.

Meanwhile, Boston College is 4-0 in its last four games overall to get to 5-3 on the season and just one win away from bowl eligibility.  The Eagles have held four straight opponents to 24 points or fewer.  BC QB Thomas Castellanos will be the best player on the field.  He is completing 59% of his passes for 1,549 yards with an 11-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also leading the team in rushing with 673 yards and 9 TD while averaging 5.4 per carry.  He leads a BC offense that is averaging 28.1 points per game, 420 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  

Keep in mind BC gave Florida State their toughest test of the season in a 2-point home loss (31-29) to the Seminoles.  To compare, Syracuse was blasted 41-3 by the Seminoles.  They followed that up by getting outgained 528 to 138 by the Hokies last week, or by 390 total yards.  That was the final nail in their coffin, and I don't expect them to get back up off the mat tonight in time to face BC.

Syracuse is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a loss.  Bet Boston College on the Money Line Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cavs/Pacers OVER 225

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace this season only behind the Washington Wizards.  They rank 7th in offensive efficiency and dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency.  They just lost 155-104 to the Celtics for 259 combined points, the second time in four games they have gone for 259-plus.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have more shooters than they did last season with the additions of Max Strus and Georges Niang.  They also take a hit defensively with these additions.  But they are shooting more 3-pointers and are more of an OVER team than last season because of it.

Indiana beat Cleveland 125-113 for 238 combined points earlier this season in a game that the Cavaliers rested Donovan Mitchell.  The Cavs and Pacers have combined for at least 225 points in five of their last six meetings, so this total is definitely a little short to say the least.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +1

This is a good spot to back the Orlando Magic.  They are coming off consecutive losses to the Lakers and Clippers on the road, which was a tough spot playing them on back-to-back days.  Those are also two of the best teams in the NBA.  Now the Magic take a big step down in class here against the Utah Jazz.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 6 days, and they are fully healthy.

The spot couldn't be much worse for the Jazz.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They beat Memphis last night, but everyone is beating Memphis as the Grizzlies are still in search of their first victory.  The Jazz won't have a whole lot left in the tank for the Magic tonight.

The Magic are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 non-conference games.  The Jazz are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games as home favorite of 6 points or fewer.  Orlando is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games following two consecutive road games.  Bet the Magic Thursday.

20* Titans/Steelers AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee +3

Some short weeks in the NFL for these Thursday night games are not created equal.  This isn't as bad of a spot for the Titans as it normally would be for most teams.  The Titans had a bye two weeks ago prior to beating Atlanta 28-23 at home last week.  They should still be very fresh for this one, and they came out of that Atlanta game very healthy.

The Titans got a big boost with the insertion of Will Levis in at quarterback.  It was their best offensive output of the season against a very good Atlanta defense last week.  They put up 28 points and 375 total yards on the Falcons.  Levis threw 4 touchdown passes without an interception, including three to DeAndre Hopkins as the team finally found a way to use one of the best wideouts in the league with Levis under center.

I don't expect Levis to be as good in his first road start here against Pittsburgh.  However, I think the Titans are the better team right now and should not be catching 3 points.  The Titans are an average NFL team, averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.6 yards per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by just 0.1 yards per play.

The Steelers have the stats of one of the worst teams in the NFL despite their 4-3 record, which is a fraudulent 4-3 record.  The Steelers average 4.8 yards per play on offense and allow 5.9 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.1 yards per play.  They are getting outgained by 111 yards per game this season and are the only NFL team to be outgained in every single game they have played in.

The Steelers have been living off of turnovers and non-offensive touchdowns, which is unsustainable.  Even with several non-offensive touchdowns this season, the Steelers are still averaging just 16.1 points per game and 272 yards per game.  They have the worst offense in the entire NFL in my opinion.

QB Kenny Pickett was knocked out of their 20-10 home loss to the Jaguars last week, and Mitch Trubisky wasn't any better as his replacement.  Pickett says he's going to play this week through injury.  The last time he said that and played through injury, the Steelers were blasted 30-6 at Houston.  They have no running game, and Pickett has not lived up to the hype.

This Pittsburgh defense has been good at creating turnovers, but not much more.  The Steelers are allowing 383 yards per game and 5.9 per play this season, ranking 30th in total defense and 28th in yards per play.  They are also 27th against the run, allowing 137.1 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  That's bad news for them going up against Derrick Henry as the Titans rank 7th in the NFL at 4.5 yards per carry this season.  Pittsburgh is without its best player in the secondary in S Minkah Fitzpatrick as well.

The Steelers could easily be 0-7 this season.  They are being overvalued due to their 4-3 record.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Titans Thursday.

20* South Alabama/Troy ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Troy -5

The Troy Trojans are quietly playing as well as any Group of 5 team in the country right now.  Following a pair of early losses to Kansas State and James Madison, Troy is back to playing like the team that won the Sun Belt last season.  The Trojans have since gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS and should have covered in all five games.

They beat Western Kentucky 27-24 in a misleading final as they outgained Western Kentucky 521 to 288, or by 233 total yards.  They beat Georgia State 28-7 as 1-point road dogs and outgained the Panthers 410 to 298, or by 112 total yards.  They beat Arkansas State 37-3 as 15.5-point home favorites and outgained them 587 to 203, or by 384 total yards.  They beat Army 19-0 and outgained them 449 to 256, or by 193 total yards.  And last week they beat Texas State 31-13 as 6.5-point road favorites.

The Trojans have elite numbers this season averaging 442 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play on offense while allowing 304 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on defense.  They are outgaining their opponents by 138 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play.  Now they are home here against a South Alabama team they have owned, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings while outscoring them by an average of 17.0 points per game in the five wins.

South Alabama is down this season.  They have a couple very bad losses to Central Michigan outright as 16.5-point home favorites and Louisiana outright by 13 as 12-point home favorites.  QB Carter Bradley exited the Louisiana game last week with a knee injury, and he is very questionable to play this week.  Having Bradley at anything less than 100% gives the Jaguars almost zero chance of being competitive in this game.  He is completing 65.7% of his passes for 2,156 yards with a 13-to-7 TD/INT ratio this season.

Troy is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 conference games.  South Alabama is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Trojans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more yards per attempt.  The Trojans are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good offensive teams averaging 5.9 or more yards per play.  Bet Troy Thursday.

20* TCU/Texas Tech FS1 No-Brainer on Texas Tech -3

Texas Tech is coming off two misleading losses in a row that are providing us with some line value on the Red Raiders as only 3-point favorites here against a down TCU team.  We'll take advantage as this is the perfect spot to 'buy low' on the Red Raiders in what will be a tremendous atmosphere Thursday night at home in Lubbock.

Texas Tech lost 38-21 at home to Kansas State two games back despite outgaining the Wildcats 480 to 435, or by 45 total yards.  The Red Raiders lost 27-14 at BYU last time out despite outgaining the Cougars 389 to 227, or by 112 total yards.  They also played 3rd-string QB Jake Strong in both of those games, and he threw 6 interceptions while the Red Raiders lost the turnover battle a combined 8-0 in those two games.

But now the Red Raiders get back their best quarterback in Behren Morton from a two-game absence.  Morton has an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season and is a big upgrade over Strong.  They beat Houston 49-28 and Baylor 39-14 in their last two games with Morton under center.

TCU lost starting QB Chandler Morris to a season-ending injury in a 27-14 loss at Iowa State.  They were able to win without him against BYU at home the next week, but then were blasted 41-3 at Kansas State last week.  Backup Josh Hoover just isn't as good.  He is completing 59.3% of his passes, averaging 6.5 per attempt with a 6-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  Hoover doesn't give them anything in the run game unlike Morris, who is a dual-threat and averaged 5.5 per carry.

This TCU defense isn't very good.  They allowed 41 points and 587 total yards to Kansas State last week, and the Wildcats don't have that potent of an offense.  They did whatever they wanted to against TCU, rushing for 343 yards and throwing for 244.

The Red Raiders led TCU 17-13 going into the 4th quarter last year but let it slip away in what was a perfect regular season for the Horned Frogs, who eventually lost to Georgia in the National Championship.  They want revenge from that game, which will add to their motivation.  After playing for so much more last year, I question how motivated the Horned Frogs will be the rest of the way now that they sit at 4-4 on the season and out of Big 12 title contention.

Texas Tech is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a road loss.  The Red Raiders are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse.  Texas Tech is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a conference road loss.  TCU is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing 525 or more yards in its previous game.  Bet Texas Tech Thursday.

20* Clippers/Lakers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles Clippers +5.5

I took a bad number here as it moved to +7 shortly after I released it on the news that both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are questionable to play tonight due to rest.  I still think the Clippers can be competitive with the Lakers if one or both sit.

The Clippers are 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Lakers.  It's rare you get the opportunity to back them as underdogs to the Lakers, and the only reason we are tonight is due to the rest situation and the Clippers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 118-102 win over the Magic last night.  But that was a blowout and the starters rested late in the 4th quarter and will still be fresh if they play tonight, plus there's no travel involved getting to stay at home here.

This is a fade of the Lakers more than anything.  The Lakers are 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS this season with their two wins coming 100-95 at home over the Suns, who were playing without both Booker and Beal, and 106-103 at home over the Magic who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They haven't blown out anyone and aren't going to blow out the Clippers tonight.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Cavaliers/Knicks UNDER 211.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Cleveland and New York will be facing off for a 2nd consecutive day.  This is also a rematch from the playoffs last year, so familiarity is at an all-time high here between these teams.

Low-scoring games have been the norm when these teams get together.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with 201 or fewer combined points in all six meetings.  Given that fact, this total of 211.5 is too high tonight.

These teams combined for 200 points last night and it should be more of the same tonight.  The Cavaliers are dealing with key injuries to scorers in Darius Garland and Caris LeVert, plus Donovan Mitchell isn't 100% as he has been battling a hamstring injury in the early going.  The Knicks are fully healthy and a very good defensive team when that's the case.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -4.5

It was going to take some time for Giannis, Lillard and the Bucks to gel.  Now that they have three games under their belts, I like the prospects of this team moving forward.  The Giants/Lillard pick and roll is pretty much unstoppable.

The Toronto Raptors are clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA this season.  They lost Fred VanVleet in the offseason and their offense ranks dead last in the NBA in efficiency.  They are scoring just 99.5 points per game on 42.5% shooting this season, which is terrible in today's NBA.

The Raptors are 1-3 SU this season and lost by 7 to the 76ers and by 8 to the Blazers in their last two home games coming in.  That's a really bad loss to Portland because they are also one of the worst teams in the NBA.  This will be their toughest test yet.

Milwaukee is 37-17 ATS in its last 54 games as a road favorite.  Bet the Bucks Wednesday.

15* Ball State/Bowling Green ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green -5

Bowling Green is one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Falcons have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with double-digit wins over Georgia Tech by 10, Buffalo by 10 and Akron by 27.  That win over Georgia Tech looks really good now after the Yellow Jackets upset both UNC and Miami.

Ball State is one of the worst teams in the country.  The Cardinals are 2-6 this season scoring just 16.1 points per game and averaging 295 yards per game on offense.  They don't have the firepower to keep up with Bowling Green.  The Falcons also have the better defense in this one limiting opponents to 25.0 points per game and 331 yards per game, while the Cardinals allow 29.0 points per game and 362 yards per game.

Ball State has some really concerning losses of late.  They lost 40-3 at home to Georgia Southern.  They lost 42-24 at Western Michgian, which is one of the worst teams in the country.  They lost 24-10 at Eastern Michigan, which is also one of the worst teams in the country.  Their lone win in their last five games came against Central Michigan at home by 7, and CMU is also one of the worst teams in the country.

The Cardinals are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS on the road this season, scoring just 12.8 points per game and allowing 38.8 points per game, getting outscored by 26.0 points per game away from home.  Bowling Green is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a home game.  Bet Bowling Green Wednesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +7.5

The San Antonio Spurs took both the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets to the wire in their first two games this season.  But they were blasted by 40 points on the road to the Los Angeles Clippers last time out.  Now it's time to 'buy low' on the Spurs catching 7.5 points against the Phoenix Suns.

Conversely, it's time to 'sell high' on the Suns after opening 3-0 ATS through their first three games.  It's going to catch up with them not having Devin Booker and Bradley Beal because this team doesn't have much talent outside the Big 3 in those two and Durant.  They shouldn't be favored by 7.5 points here over the Spurs without Booker and Beal tonight.

Phoenix is 32-54 ATS in its last 86 home games following a win by 20 points or more.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (San Antonio) - after scoring 95 points or less against an opponent that scored 125 points or more are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

15* Rangers/Diamondbacks MLB ANNIHILATOR on Arizona -105

Game 4 is going to be a bullpen game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers.  I'll gladly side with the team with the much better bullpen, which is the Diamondbacks in Game 4.

Andrew Heaney will get the start for the Rangers.  He allowed 3 earned runs in 2/3 of an inning in his last postseason start against Houston.  Once he exits, the Rangers will be going to their bullpen, which has a 4.66 ERA on the season.

Joe Mantiply started against the Phillies last series and pitched one shutout inning in a 6-5 win for the Diamondbacks.  Arizona has great arms available at the back of their bullpen to preserve a lead.  They have a 3.71 ERA at home this season.  Bet the Diamondbacks in Game 4 Tuesday.

15* Buffalo/Toledo ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo +16

Toledo is grossly overvalued right now due to its 7-1 record.  The Rockets just have a way of playing to their competition, which is why they are 6-0 SU but just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have played some of the very worst teams in all of college football close during this span.

Toledo beat San Jose State by 4 as 9.5-point home favorites, Western Michigan by 18 as 21.5-point home favorites, Northern Illinois by 2 as 13.5-point home favorites, UMass by 17 as 19-point road favorites, Ball State by 7 as 17.5-point road favorites and Miami Ohio by 4 as 2-point road favorites.  As you can see, most of their games have come down to the wire, and that will be the case tonight against Buffalo.

Buffalo is a team I was fading a lot early in the season, but I have come around to them of late.  The Bulls are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They only lost by 7 as Louisiana as 10.5-point road dogs, won outright as dogs at Akron, crushed Central Michigan 37-13 as home dogs, lost by 10 to Bowling Green as 3-point favorites and beat Kent State by 18 as 6.5-point road favorites.  Keep in mind Bowling Green beat Georgia Tech on the road, and Georgia Tech has beaten both Miami and UNC.

Buffalo pulled the outright upset 34-27 as 7-point home dogs against Toledo last season.  They can hang on the road in the rematch here as 16-point dogs.  Buffalo is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games played on turf.  Toledo is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points.  The Rockets almost never cover in this price range and haven't all season.  Bet Buffalo Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Orlando Magic ML +110

The Los Angeles Lakers are in a terrible spot tonight.  They are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after going to OT and losing 127-132 at Sacramento last night.  Four starters played at least 39 minutes for the Lakers.  LeBron James is supposed to be on a minutes restriction, so don't be surprised if the Lakers sit him tonight.

The Lakers won't have much left in the tank for the Magic, who are one of my favorite teams to back in the early going this season because they have a lot of chemistry with pretty much everyone back from a team that was a ATS machine in the 2nd half of the season last year.  The Magic are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.

The Magic have been impressive to start this season, going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS while beating Houston 116-86 as 4.5-point home favorites and Portland 102-97 as 3.5-point road favorites.  The Lakers are an overvalued commodity in the early going at 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS.  Orlando is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 non-conference games.  Bet the Magic on the Money Line Monday.

20* Raiders/Lions ESPN No-Brainer on Detroit -8

This is a 'buy low' spot on the Detroit Lions after getting blown out 38-6 at Baltimore last week.  You could see it coming a mile away and I had a 25* play on the Ravens in that game.  The Ravens are one of the best teams in the NFL and were as healthy as they had been all season.  Plus, the Lions were banged up and even took practice off on Wednesday of last week to try and get healthier.  But their lack of preparation for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens showed.  Plus, 20-plus MPH winds hurt their offense.

Now the Lions are back in the dome in Detroit and highly motivated to get back on track.  They have the lowly Las Vegas Raiders coming to town.  The Raiders are one of the worst teams in the NFL, and the Lions have feasted on bottom feeders this season.  They were in dog fights with the Chiefs and Seahawks earlier this season, but they have blown out the sisters of the poor, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS against the likes of the Falcons in a 20-6 victory, the Packers in a 34-20 victory, the Panthers in a 42-24 victory and the Bucs in a 20-6 victory.  The Raiders are in the same class as those four teams, if not worse.

The Raiders were just blown out 30-12 on the road by the Chicago Bears last week.  They are held to 235 total yards in defeat.  Brian Hoyer was the starter, but it hasn't matter who has started at QB even if a hobbled Jimmy G returns this week.  This is one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  The Raiders average just 16.0 points per game, 284.1 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season.

A big problem for this Raiders offense is that after leading the league in rushing last year, Josh Jacobs and this offensive line have been a major disappointment.  The Raiders only rush for 69 yards per game and 3.0 per carry.  They won't be able to get anything on the ground against this Detroit defense, which is one of the best in the league at stopping the run, allowing 76 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  That's going to put a lot on Jimmy G's shoulders if he does return, and I just don't think the Raiders can keep up in a shootout because they are not going to stop Detroit.

The Lions have one of the best offenses in the NFL, averaging 24.9 points per game, 377 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.  They have been at their best at home in a controlled environment, averaging 31.0 points per game, 384 yards per game and 6.3 per play in their three home games.  They will get back on track offensively this week.  The Raiders have key injuries in the secondary, at linebacker and on the defensive line.  K Daniel Carlson is also battling a groin injury.

Detroit is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after winning two of its last three games.  The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games after allowing 35 points or more.  The Raiders are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite.  Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Detroit) - after covering five or six of their last seven games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 58-25 (69.9%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Lions Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -3.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have been dominant when Zion Williams, CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram have been healthy at the same time.  They had the best record in the West last season before Zion went down.  They are off to a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season, winning 111-104 at Memphis and 96-87 at home over the Knicks.

While the Pelicans are rested and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, the Golden State Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Pelicans tonight, and don't be surprised to see them rest a starter or two.

The home team went 4-0 SU in four meetings between the Warriors and Pelicans last season with the home team winning by 9 points or more in all four.  Golden State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a road dog of 6 points or less and was one of the worst road teams in the NBA last season.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -5

The Milwaukee Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight, but not all back-to-backs are created equal.  They were blasted 127-110 at home by the Hawks last night, so they will be motivated to bounce back with a victory.  There's no travel involved as they are home again tonight, and the blowout nature of that loss meant the Bucks didn't play their starters much in the 4th quarter.  They should still be fresh and pissed off to bounce back.

Adding to their motivation is the fact that they were knocked out of the playoffs in the 1st round by the Miami Heat last year.  They want revenge, and they could have easily been overlooking the Hawks yesterday and looking ahead to this revenge game.

The Heat are one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA this season because of their historic run to the NBA Finals as an 8th seed.  They are much worse in the regular season than they are in the playoffs, needing the play-in round just to get into the playoffs last year.  They struck out on Damian Lillard in the offseason, and now he's with the Bucks.  The Heat just lack talent overall especially after losing Gabe Vincent and Max Strus.

Miami is 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS this season with their lone win coming 103-102 at home as 9.5-point favorites against Detroit.  They then lost by 8 as 8-point dogs at Boston and by 16 as 8.5-point dogs at Minnesota.  They are without two key role players in Caleb Martin and Josh Richardson, leaving too much on Jimmy Butler's shoulders.  They are relying on aging veterans Kyle Lowry and Kevin Love.  Their only good three healthy players are Butler, Adebayo and Herro, who is making his way back from injury.  This is a team I want to fade early in the season.  

Milwaukee is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less.  Plays on favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Milwaukee) - off an upset loss as a favorite, in the first 6 games of the season, a playoff team from last season that lost 4 or more of their final 5 games are 54-22 (71.1%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Bucks Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -2.5

The Indiana Pacers are one of the most talented young teams in the NBA this season.  They brought back all their key pieces from last season including Haliburton, Mathurin and Turner.  They added Denver's key 6th man in Bruce Brown and Obi Toppin from the Knicks.

The Pacers are off an running with a 143-120 home win over the Wizards as 5-point favorites and a 125-113 road win at Cleveland as 3-point favorites.  There's value on the Pacers are only 2.5-point home favorites to the Chicago Bulls tonight.  The Pacers rank 1st in offensive efficiency and 3rd in pace through two games.

The Bulls are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season with their lone win coming by a single point in OT at home against the Raptors where they needed a late comeback just to force OT.  The Bulls lost 104-124 as 2.5-point home favorites to OKC and 102-118 as 2.5-point road favorites at Detroit.  This is a bad Chicago team relying on a bunch of veterans that are pair their primes.  There's not much to like about this team, and Billy Donovan may be the first coach fired.

Indiana went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its final three meetings with Chicago last season.  The Bulls are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games following a road loss.  Indiana is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

15* Lakers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -2.5

Getting the Sacramento Kings as a short home favorite over the Los Angeles Lakers is a discount.  The Lakers were blasted by the Nuggets 119-107 on the road in their opener.  They needed a big 4th quarter comeback to beat the Suns 100-95 at home despite the Suns being without both Devin Booker and Bradley Beal.  The Lakers aren't hitting on all cylinders in the early going, and we'll fade them here today with LeBron James on a minutes restriction early.

The Sacramento Kings brought back 10 players that won the Pacific Division and took the Warriors to 7 games in the playoffs last year.  They brought back all five starters.  They are healthy to start the season and blasted Utah 130-114 on the road in their opener.  Now we get the chance to 'buy low' on the Kings after losing 114-122 at home to the Warriors last time out.  They simply hat an off shooting night at 43.6% while the Warriors were on fire at 55.2%.  The Lakers don't shoot it like the Warriors do.

The Kings went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Lakers last season with their lone loss coming by 2 points, and all three wins coming by 5 points or more.  The Kings are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games following a home loss.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Ravens -7.5

Note: I love a 6-point teaser with the Ravens -1.5/Lions -1.5.

I'm very high on the Ravens right now and very low on the Cardinals.  That has been evident the last two weeks as I've backed the Ravens twice with success, and faded the Cardinals last week.  So it should come as no surprise I'm backing the Ravens and fading the Cardinals this week and fully expect this to be the biggest blowout of the week in pro football.

The Ravens are as healthy as they have been all season right now.  They played up to their potential with a 38-6 home win over Detroit last week.  The Ravens racked up 503 total yards and 9.1 per play and held the Lions to 337 total yards and 4.7 per play.  New offensive coordinator Todd Monken has this Ravens offense revved up right now, and the defense is arguably the best in the league.

Indeed, the Ravens have elite numbers averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.5 yards per play.  They should be 7-0 right now as they gave the games away in their two losses to the Colts and Steelers.  But now they are playing with their foot squarely on the gas and will continue to do so against Arizona.

I'll gladly lay this single-digit number against an Arizona Cardinals team that is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight losses by double-digits.  They lost 35-16 at San Francisco, 34-20 at home to Cincinnati, 26-9 at the LA Rams and 20-10 at Seattle.  They lost by 10 at Seattle last week despite being +3 in turnovers and that game should have been a bigger blowout.

Their offense is in shambles right now scoring just 13.8 points per game in their last four games.  Their offensive struggles have coincided with the loss of James Conner, who was averaging 5.4 yards per carry before he got hurt.  They have averaged 3.5 yards per carry without him.  Josh Dobbs was in manageable 3rd down situations with Conners, but now he's in too many 3rd and longs without him.  He isn't handling it very well.

Arizona is now the team that we all thought they would be coming into the season, which was the worst team in the NFL.  They are just biding their time until Kyler Murray returns, which won't be this week.  They may not play him at all, and it's a big distraction right now.  The Cardinals have been terrible defensively this season, allowing 26.0 points per game, 368.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They are injury-ravaged defensively as well and worn down because they have been on the field so much the last four weeks.  They really need a bye but don't have one in the near future.

The Ravens are arguably the best team in the NFL in their current form and the Cardinals are arguably the worst.  The Ravens should be bigger favorites here as a result.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks ML -130

The Seattle Seahawks should be 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall but instead are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS.  I think their misleading loss at Cincinnati two weeks ago is creating line value here for future games.  I capitalized by backing the Seahawks in their 20-10 win over Arizona last week despite being -3 in turnovers in another misleading final.

They lost 17-13 at Cincinnati despite outgaining the Bengals by 170 yards.  They had 384 total yards and 5.5 yards per play on offense and held the Bengals to just 214 total yards and 4.0 per play.  The Bengals had basically four first-and-goals that resulted in a total of 3 points.  They had two turnovers on downs and a turnover on four drives that got inside the Cincinnati 11-yard line.  That's just bad luck and obviously bad play calling.

While the Seahawks are coming off two misleading results where they dominated the box score but lost the turnover battle, the Cleveland Browns are coming off two misleading wins that are creating line value here on the home favorite.  I faded the Browns last week with the Colts and cashed my ticket, but the Browns still won the game by 1 in a game they had no business winning.

The Browns had a golden horseshoe up their asses two weeks ago in their 19-17 win over the 49ers.  Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel got hurt and were knocked out of the game.  The weather conditions were tough, and the 49ers missed two field goals, including a 41-yarder at the buzzer that would have won it.  Plus, the Browns had all kinds of bad calls by the refs go their way, including a fumble that would have been returned for a TD by the 49ers had the refs not called it an incomplete pass and intentional grounding instead.

Their golden horseshoe stayed in their asses again last week.  The Colts lost to the Browns 39-38 despite outgaining them 456 to 316, or by 140 total yards.  They also outgained the Browns 6.8 to 4.4 yards per play.  Another four turnovers by the Colts including three lost fumbles cost them dearly.  Myles Garrett also blocked a FG while forcing two of those fumbles and almost single-handedly won that game for Cleveland.  

The Browns also got help from the refs on their final game-winning drive with a phantom illegal contact call on 4th down and then a phantom pass interference on an uncatchable ball in the end zone.  It was the 2nd consecutive week the Browns were greatly helped by the refs, and the NFL came out and admitted both flags shouldn't have been thrown.  I think their luck runs out this week.

The Browns won't have QB Deshaun Watson or RB Jerome Ford for this one.  Marquise Goodwin, Sione Takitaki and Jedrick Willis all missed practice on Thursday due to various injuries.  It will be PJ Walker at QB again, and he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the league.  Walker will be up against an underrated Seattle deense that allows just 19.7 points per game, 322 yards per game and 5.0 per play.  Their defensive strength is stopping the run, allowing 87 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry.  They are going to force Walker to try and beat them through the air, and I don't think he'll be able to do it on the road in a hostile environment.

The Seahawks did not have WR DK Metcalf last week against the Cardinals.  But he returned to practice and is expected to play this week.  Seattle is much healthier than Cleveland coming into this one and the better team in their current state.  That's why I'm taking them at a short money line price here when they should be much bigger favorites.

The Browns have not handled success very well under Kevin Stefanski.  The Browns are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games following a win, including 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Bet the Seahawks on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5

I like backing teams early in the season with a lot of chemistry.  The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best young nucleus in the entire NBA.  They made the play-in round last year and are in line for bigger things this year.

The Thunder returned four starters and get a healthy Chet Holmgren at center this season.  They have key holdovers coming off the bench, plus add rookie Cason Wallace to the mix.  This is basically the same team as last year except with the additions of Holmgren and Wallace.  

They're off to a good start with a dominant 124-104 win at Chicago as 2.5-point road dogs in the opener and a 108-105 win at Cleveland as 2.5-point road dogs.  Now the Thunder get their home opener and have some of the best fans in the NBA.  You know they are going to turn out to support this team with the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets coming to town Sunday.

I think the Nuggets are being overvalued due to winning the title and are going to be fighting a championship hangover early in the season.  They were able to escape with a win over the Lakers in the opener with a big 4th quarter, and also escaped with a 108-104 win at Memphis as 5.5-point road favorites.  Memphis is way down early in the season without JA Morant while missing a few other guys to key injuries.  This will be Denver's toughest test of the young season by far.

The Thunder are 31-12 ATS in their last 43 games after allowing 105 points or less.  The Thunder are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Nuggets.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indianapolis Colts ML -116

The Colts lost 37-20 on the road to Jacksonville two weeks ago.  The Jaguars somehow scored 37 points despite only gaining 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.  That's because the Colts turned the ball over four times to give them plenty of short fields and easy points.  The Colts gave them that game, they did not earn it based on the numbers.  The Colts put up 354 yards and 4.7 per play, outgaining the Jaguars by 121 yards and 0.9 per play.

That misleading result against the Jaguars created line value on the Colts last week, and I backed them as 3.5-point home underdogs to the Cleveland Browns.  Now we have another misleading result against the Browns that is creating line value on the Colts again this week.  The Colts lost to the Browns 39-38 despite outgaining them 456 to 316, or by 140 total yards.  They also outgained the Browns 6.8 to 4.4 yards per play.

Another four turnovers by the Colts including three lost fumbles cost them dearly.  Myles Garrett also blocked a FG while forcing two of those fumbles and almost single-handedly won that game for Cleveland.  The Browns also got help from the refs on their final game-winning drive with a phantom illegal contact call on 4th down and then a phantom pass interference on an uncatchable ball in the end zone.  It was the 2nd consecutive week the Browns were greatly helped by the refs, and the NFL came out and admitted both flags shouldn't have been thrown.

What I want to focus on here is that the Colts put up 456 total yards and 6.8 per play against a Cleveland defense that most thought was the best defense in the NFL coming into the week.  Gardner Minshew threw for 305 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for two scores against that defense.  He has been much better against man coverage than zone coverage throughout his career.  Well, the Browns run the 2nd-most man coverage in the NFL this season under Jim Schwartz.  Only the New Orleans Saints run more man coverage than the Browns.

Now Minshew gets to go up against this man-heavy Saints scheme this week.  I know the Colts can get their on offense with a balanced attack as they also rushed for 168 yards on the Browns last week behind Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss, who combined for 36 carries and are a great 1-2 punch at running back.

I'm also certain this New Orleans offense is great between the 20's but terrible when they get inside the red zone.  That has been a problem for them all season, especially the last two weeks.  They have won the yardage battle in consecutive losses to the Texans and Jaguars, but it's not as impressive because it's predictable.  They get in the red zone and bog down.  They rank 28th in the NFL in red zone TD percentage at 37.5%.  The Colts rank 12th at 58.33%, and I expect that to be the difference in this game with the Colts capitalizing on more scoring opportunities than the Saints.

You could see Derek Carr visibly upset last week with offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael.  They aren't on the same page right now.  You could also see Carr visibly bothered by a groin injury suffered in the 4th quarter in their home loss to the Jaguars.  It has all been dink and dunk for Carr this season, making this a great matchup for this Colts defense.  They have some of the best linebackers in the NFL and they are great at covering running backs out of the backfield like Alvin Kamara.  

The Saints are averaging 3.5 yards per carry and 5.8 yards per pass attempt this season.  The are so predictable.  They are averaging 4.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.9 per play on defense while playing a weak schedule of opposing offenses.  The Colts are averaging 5.6 per play on offense and allowing 5.2 per play on defense while playing a much tougher schedule of opposing offenses and defenses.  

The Colts have played the 7th-toughest schedule to this point while the Saints have played the 6th-easiest schedule.  But the schedule gets easier for the Colts with their next five games coming against the Siants, Panthers, Patriots, Bucs and Titans.  They know they have a chance to make some headway, and it starts this week with a win and cover against the Saints.  Shane Steichen is one of the best schemers against man coverage, and I think the Colts have a big coaching edge here over Dennis Allen and Pete Carmichael.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

15* UNLV/Fresno State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +7.5

UNLV is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season with its lone loss at Michigan and a legit contender to win the Mountain West.  There will be no letdown this week with a meeting with defending MWC champion Fresno State.  I expect another big effort from the Rebels this week, and it should be good enough to stay within one score of the Bulldogs and possibly pull off the upset here.

Fresno State has a big problem right now at quarterback.  Mikey Keene missed the last game with injuries to both of his legs and is highly questionable to return this week.  Keene is completing 68.5% of his passes for 1,692 yards with a 15-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  He is a big upgrade over backup Logan Fife, who could be forced into action again here.

Fresno State is fortunate to be 6-1 with three wins already by 5 points or less.  The only teams they got margin on were two of the worst teams in all of college football in Kent State and Nevada.  They just shouldn't be this big of a favorite over a team the caliber of UNLV.  QB Jayden Maiava is one of the top recruits in program history and is living up to the hype.  He is completing 64.9% of his passes and averaging 8.5 per attempt, while also rushing for 142 yards and 4.6 per carry.

UNLV was not very good each of the last two seasons and still played Fresno State to a one-score game in both while covering the spread with ease each time.  This one will be decided by one score either way, too.

Plays on road underdogs (UNLV) - off two consecutive games where they committed zero turnovers against an opponent that committed one or fewer turnovers in two consecutive games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona State +6

I've been very impressed with Arizona State in recent weeks against quality competition.  The Sun Devils have gotten healthier and only lost by 14 to USC as 34-point dogs, by 3 at Cal as 13-point dogs and by 3 at home to Colorado as 3-point dogs.  They outgained California 430 to 326, or by 104 yards.  They outgained Colorado 392 to 289, or by 103 yards.  They should have won both of those games.

The Sun Devils returned from their bye last week and I release them as my 25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR as +28.5 dogs at Washington.  They delivered in a big way and went into halftime with a 7-3 lead.  They would have pulled off the outright upset if not for an 89-yard INT return for a TD by Washington in the 4th quarter when they were going in for a score to try and take and 8-point lead.

No other defense has held Heisman Trophy contender Michael Penix Jr. in check like Arizona State did.  He went just 27-of-42 passing for 275 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions, averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt.  Most felt Washington had the best offense in the country coming into that game.

It's safe to say the Sun Devils are motivated for their first Pac-12 victory after coming so close in all four conference games thus far.  I think they catch a Washington State team here that they can handle.  Washington State lost 25-17 at UCLA, 44-6 at home to Arizona and 38-24 at Oregon in its last three games coming in.  The Cougars have rushed for a total of 104 yards in those three losses combined, so they are clearly only reliant on throwing to move the football.  That makes this a great matchup for this ASU defense, which has schemed well against the pass in recent weeks.

This Washington State defense has not been good at all, allowing 438 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.  The Cougars allow 162 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry as well as 276 passing yards per game and 7.4 per attempt.  Arizona State wants to run the ball and will be able to do so.  Arizona State's defense allows 26.4 points per game, 332 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  The Sun Devils are holding opponents 1.1 yards per play below their season averages.  I'll gladly side with the much better defense as a home underdog here.

Washington State is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 road games following a conference road loss.  Arizona State is 18-3 ATS in its last 21 games vs. terrible rushing teams that average 90 or fewer rushing yards per game.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

15* DBacks/Rangers MLB Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 9

The Texas Rangers are 6-0-1 OVER in their last seven games overall.  However, this total has now been inflated due to that streak and due to combining for 11 runs with Arizona in extra innings in Game 1 last night.  Now the true aces of both these teams go tonight and scoring will be suppressed in Game 2.

Jordan Montgomery is 12-11 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.202 WHIP in 36 starts this season.  Montgomery held Houston to 2 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in two starts against them last series.  He faced the Diamondbacks earlier this season on August 21st and pitched 8 shutout innings in a 4-3 victory.

Merrill Kelly is 14-9 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in 33 starts this season.  Kelly has been dominant in his last six starts, allowing just 9 earned runs in 36 2/3 innings for a 2.27 ERA.  This despite facing the Phillies twice, Dodgers, Astros, Yankees and Giants.  Kelly allowed just one earned run in 7 2/3 innings of a 4-1 victory in his lone career start against Texas.

Kelly is 12-1 UNDER in his last 13 starts with a total set of 9 to 9.5 runs.  Arizona is 15-3 UNDER following a loss by one run this season.  The UNDER is 14-6 in Montgomery's 20 starts vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Old Dominion +20.5

James Madison is 7-0 and just got ranked inside the Top 25 which is a huge accomplishment as a program.  That makes this a massive letdown spot for the Dukes, who are fat and happy right now and getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to that 7-0 record, but especially after going 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Dukes, who have been fortunate in close games this season winning four of their seven games by 8 points or less, or by one score.  Another win came by 11 points.  Asking them to beat Old Dominion by three touchdowns or more to beat us is asking too much.

Old Dominion has quietly gone 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall and is flying under the radar even with that perfect 5-0 ATS record.  The Monarchs haven't lost a game by more than 19 points all season.  The two recent losses were impressive losing by 3 to Wake Forest as 14-point dogs and by 6 at Marshall as 14.5-point dogs.

Old Dominion pulled the 38-31 upset win over Louisiana as 6-point home dogs, pulled the 17-13 upset as 3-point road dogs at Southern Miss, and pulled the 28-21 upset as 6-point home dogs to Appalachian State last week.  The Monarchs had a bye prior to that win over Appalachian State, so they should still be very fresh for this game this weekend.

Old Dominion quietly has great numbers this season averaging 6.0 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.8 yards per play despite playing a tougher schedule than James Madison.  The Dukes have great numbers as well outgaining opponents by 1.5 yards per play, but that margin doesn't warrant them being anywhere near a 20.5-point favorite here.

Old Dominion is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. good passing teams that complete 62% or better.  Plays on road underdogs (Old Dominion) - following two consecutive games where they committed zero turnovers against an opponent off two consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Old Dominion Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons +2.5

The Detroit Pistons are grossly undervalued to open the season.  They only had Cade Cunningham for the first 12 games last season.  Cunningham is back and paired with Jaden Ivey in the backcourt, and this team has a lot of chemistry as they bring back mostly all the same guys and have a ton of depth.

That has shown in their first two games this season as they nearly upset Miami in a 102-103 loss as 9.5-point road dogs.  Then they upset Charlotte 111-99 as 4.5-point dogs last night.  Their depth will help them a lot in these back-to-back situations, and they won't have any problem coming up with the energy tonight in their home opener in front of some excited Detroit fans ready to see this team.

The spot is much worse for the Bulls on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They needed OT to beat Toronto 104-103 as 2.5-point home favorites last night.  DeRozan played 41 minutes, Vucevic 40 minutes, White 40 minutes and LaVine 38 minutes last night.  Now LaVine has a back injury and is questionable.  The Bulls don't have near the depth that the Pistons do.  

Chicago has been overvalued as well losing by 20 at home to the Thunder as 2.5-point favorites and then barely beating a rebuilding Toronto team as short home favorites.  They should not be favored on the road here against the upstart Pistons.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

15* Troy/Texas State Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on Troy -4.5

The Troy Trojans are quietly playing as well as any Group of 5 team in the country right now.  Following a pair of early losses to Kansas State and James Madison, Troy is back to playing like the team that won the Sun Belt last season.  The Trojans have since gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS and should have covered in all four games.

They beat Western Kentucky 27-24 in a misleading final as they outgained Western Kentucky 521 to 288, or by 233 total yards.  They beat Georgia State 28-7 as 1-point road dogs and outgained the Panthers 410 to 298, or by 112 total yards.  They beat Arkansas State 37-3 as 15.5-point home favorites and outgained them 587 to 203, or by 384 total yards.  Then last time out they beat Army 19-0 and outgained them 449 to 256, or by 193 total yards.

Texas State is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to its 5-2 record, but the Bobcats have played one of the easiest schedules in the entire country.  Their last four wins have come against Jackson State, Nevada, Southern MIss and LA-Monroe.  They struggled to get separation with an 11-point win over Nevada, a 14-point win over Southern Miss and a 1-point win over LA-Monroe.  This team just isn't as good as their record, while Troy is much better than its record.

Troy is gaining 6.6 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.6 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.0 yards per play.  Texas State is at 6.8 yards per play on offense and 5.6 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play.  But that's not that impressive when you consider they have played the 116th toughest-schedule in the country while Troy has played the 67th.

Both teams have very good offenses, but the big difference here is the defenses.  Troy allows 285 yards per game and 4.6 per play.  Texas State allows 410 yards per game and 5.6 per play, including 162 rushing yards per game and 248 passing yards per game.  Troy is going to be able to do whatever it wants to on offense, and the Trojans will get enough stops on defense to win this game by a TD or more.

Troy is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games.  Texas State is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after outgaining its last opponent by 125 or more yards.  The Trojans are 13-3 ATS in their last 17 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Trojans are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games following a bye week.  

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Arkansas State/UL-Monroe OVER 56.5

My handicap on football totals always starts with checking the weather.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout at Louisiana-Monroe Saturday night with temps in the 80's, only a 10% chance of precipitation and single-digit winds.

These are two of the worst defenses in the country.  Monroe ranks 124th out of 133 teams in total defense at 449.3 yards per game and 116th in scoring at 32.7 points per game allowed.  Arkansas State has been even worse, ranking 128th at 456.4 yards per game, 128th at 6.5 yards per play and 125th in scoring at 35.1 points per game.

I like taking OVERS later in the season between two bad teams with little to play for because there tends to be a care-free attitude and it usually favors offense over defense.  When Arkansas State has taken a step down in class recently, shootouts have ensued.

Arkansas State went for 81 combined points in a 44-37 home win over Southern Miss.  The Red Wolves went for 80 combined points in a 52-28 win at UMass their next time out.  This is a step down in class for them here after facing Troy and Coastal Carolina in their last two games and having their offense held in check.

Three of Monroe's last four games have seen 81, 66 and 62 combined points to easily top this 56.5-point total.  This is a big step down in class for this Monroe offense after facing a gauntlet of opposing defenses in their last five games.  Look for them to bust out with one of their best offensive performances of the season against this Arkansas State defense.

Last year, Arkansas State beat Monroe 45-28 for 73 combined points in a game with a similar total of 58.  Six of the last eight meetings in this series have seen 61 or more combined points.  The books have once again set this total too low.

Terry Bowden is 11-2 OVER in Weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of the Warhawks.  Monroe is 12-3 OVER in its last 15 home games following three of more consecutive losses.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Pittsburgh/Notre Dame NBC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +21

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are coming off a very satisfying 48-20 home win over the USC Trojans.  But USC basically gave that game away by committing 5 turnovers.  Notre Dame somehow scored 48 points despite just 251 total yards of offense.  Multiple defensive touchdowns and short fields were the difference as their offense didn't need to do much.

After having a 13-to-0 TD/IN ratio through the first four games of the season, Sam Hartman has regressed for Notre Dame.   He has a 5-to-3 TD/INT ratio in his last four starts since taking a step up in class with matchups with Ohio State, Duke, Louisville and USC.  Now they face another very good defense here in Pitt.

While Notre Dame is coming off a misleading blowout of an overrated USC team, Pittsburgh is coming off a misleading 17-21 loss at Wake Forest following their 38-21 upset of Louisville, giving these teams a common opponent.  Notre Dame lost 33-20 at Louisville.  Pitt outgained Wake Forest 414 to 323, or by 91 total yards.  The Panthers will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face rival Notre Dame this week.

The switch at quarterback has yielded great results for the Panthers through two games.  Christian Veilleux has thrown for 502 yards with a 4-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last two games since being named the starter against Louisville and Wake Forest.  He has given this previously dead offense some new life.

Pitt allows just 5.0 yards per play this season against teams that average 5.7 yards per play.  Pitt allows just 131 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry this season, so they have been great against the run.  They will be able to slow down Notre Dame's rushing attack in this one, which will help them stay within the number in what is expected to be a low-scoring, defensive battle.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Virginia +19

Virginia is a much better team than its 2-5 record would indicate.  The Cavaliers have three losses by 3 points or less this season and a misleading loss to Maryland.  They showed just how underrated they were last week by going on the road to North Carolina and upsetting the Tar Heels 31-27 as 24-point dogs.  There was nothing fluky at all about that win as the Cavaliers had 439 total yards and were actually -1 in turnovers.

With three winnable home games still on the horizon, the Cavaliers could still make a bowl game if they pull another road upset here.  At the very least, there's value on the Cavaliers as 19-point road dogs to a fragile Miami Hurricanes team that they just seem to play tough every year.

Miami is in a tough spot here coming off back-to-back games against North Carolina and Clemson which followed up their 23-20 upset home loss to Georgia Tech as 19-point favorites.  They went on to lose 41-31 at North Carolina as 2.5-point dogs and were never really in that game.  And last week's 28-20 (OT) win over Clemson was misleading as they managed just 362 total yards and were +2 in turnovers.  They celebrated that game like they won the National Championship, and I think they fall flat here against Virginia like they did in that upset loss to Georgia Tech.

Each of the last five meetings between Virginia and Miami were decided by 8 points or less, or by a single score.  Miami has only beaten Virginia by more than 19 points once in the last 13 meetings, and that was a 20-point win.  That makes for a 12-1 system backing the Cavaliers pertaining to this 19-point spread when you look at the recent head-to-head history.

Miami is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after committing one or fewer turnovers last game.  The Hurricanes are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games following a win.  Virginia is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. mistake-prone teams that average 60 or more penalty yards per game.  The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville -4

I love the spot for Louisville this week.  They finally got a bye week to regroup and get healthy following their first loss of the season against Pittsburgh going into the bye.  You could see that loss coming a mile away, and I was on Pittsburgh +7.5 in that game because of the terrible spot.

Louisville was coming off a huge 33-20 upset win over Notre Dame the previous week.  They simply had a letdown and really beat themselves more than anything in a 38-21 loss at Pitt.  It was a misleading loss as Louisville outgained Pitt 444 to 305, or by 139 total yards, but they were -3 in turnovers including an 86-yard INT return for a TD when they were going in to take the lead late in the 3rd quarter.

Louisville will get back to playing the kind of football they were playing in that Notre Dame game when they are 6-0.  They still have everything in front of them as they try to win a ACC title.  The Cardinals have dominant numbers this season outgaining opponents by 142 yards per game while averaging 6.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play.

The spot is much worse for Duke.  The Blue Devils are coming off a 38-20 road loss at Florida State last week and were dominated in the box score.  They were outgained 420 to 273, or by 147 yards by the Seminoles.  QB Riley Leonard made his return from injury but clearly wasn't healed and re-injured his ankle in the loss while getting pulled from the game late.  He is highly questionable for this game, and having him at anything less than 100% will give Duke almost zero chance to be competitive in this one.

Louisville is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games, including 6-0 ATS in its last six games as home favorites.  The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Saturday home games as well.  The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas +7.5

The North Texas Mean Green are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and playing well.  They haven't lost any of their last six games by more than 7 points.  Each of their last three losses all came on the road by 7 points or less.  It was last week's 35-28 loss at Tulane as 20.5-point dogs that impressed me the most.

North Texas went toe-to-toe with the defending AAC champ and current AAC favorite in Tulane on the road.  They had 426 total yards while Tulane had 439 total yards, only getting outgained by 13 yards in what was a very close game throughout.

That gives these teams a common opponent.  Memphis lost 31-21 at home to Tulane as a 5-point dog while getting outgained 403 to 366, or by 37 yards.  And Memphis got to play Tulane at home while North Texas played them on the road.

I think Memphis is being overvalued off its 45-21 win at UAB last week against a backup QB for UAB.  That was a misleading final as UAB actually outgained Memphis 381 to 358, or by 23 total yards.  But UAB was -4 in turnovers which was the difference.

North Texas proved it could play with Memphis last year losing 44-34 on the road as 13-point dogs.  North Texas outgained Memphis 473 to 334, or by 139 total yards in what was a misleading loss.  North Texas was -2 in turnovers in that game.  Now they get the Tigers at home and as 7.5-point dogs to boot, making the Mean Green a very live underdog here.

Memphis is 10-25 ATS in its last 35 games following a double-digit road win.  North Texas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven October games.  Bet North Texas Saturday.

20* Warriors/Kings ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -3

I like backing teams early in the season that have a lot of chemistry.  The Kings returned 10 players from a team that won the Pacific Division last season and took the Warriors to 7 games in the playoffs.  They returned all five starters.  Now they want revenge from getting bounced in the playoffs by the Warriors, and they don't have to wait long to get it.

They host a Warriors team that is coming off a 108-104 home loss to the Phoenix Suns.  The Warriors aren't at full strength in the early going, missing Draymond Green right now with an ankle injury.  He is missed on both ends of the court, especially defensively.  Things come easier for Stephen Curry when he's out there setting screens for him, and without him the Warriors just don't run as smoothly, and too much is on Curry's shoulders.

Golden State is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games as a road dog of 6 points or less.  Bet the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -2.5

I like backing teams early in the season that have a lot of chemistry.  That's especially the case when they are facing a team with no chemistry and a lot of new faces.  That's what we have here with the Orlando Magic over the Portland Trail Blazers.

The Magic were one of the most profitable teams to back in the 2nd half of the season last year because they were healthy and formed chemistry with their young nucleus.  They returned all 5 starters from that team plus key bench players in Cole Anthony, Gary Harris and Mo Wagner.  They also have a healthy Jonathan Isaac to start the season, plus added veteran Joe Ingles.

The Magic blasted the Rockets 116-86 in the opener at home.  Now they take on a Blazers team that lost 111-123 on the road at the Clippers, and that was an even bigger blowout than the score showed as the Clippers called off the dogs up 26 points going into the 4th.

The Blazers are adjusting to life without Damian Lillard.  They are relying on newcomers Scoot Henderson, DeAndre Ayton, Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams III to try and pick up the pieces.  It's going to take some time for these guys to gel with holdovers Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons and Matisse Thybulle.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Cavaliers OVER 227

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have a very fast-paced, efficient offense and a ton of chemistry with one of the best young nucleus' in the entire NBA.  They made the play-in round last year and returned four starters plus a healthy Chet Holmgren at center.  They are going to be tough to tame, and they beat the Bulls 124-104 in the opener.

The Cavaliers are going to be more of an OVER team this year because they added shooters and will attempt more 3's with a change in philosophy.  They also are without C Jarrett Allen in the early going, who is their defensive stopper.  They take a big hit defensively without him.

The Cavs beat the Nets 114-113 on the road in their opener.  They went 17-of-43 (39.5%) from 3-point range.  They added two great shooters in Max Strus from the Heat and Georges Niang from the 76ers.  These two combined to go 7-of-16 from 3-point range in that contest.  Both aren't very good defenders, so that is going to be an issue for them defensively that they will have to deal with.  They allowed the Nets to shoot 50% from the field and now take a big step up in class here against the Thunder.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.