15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +10

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Brooklyn Nets right now.  They have lost 11 straight coming in while going 2-9 ATS in the process.  As a result, we're getting a huge number here with the Nets Friday, and the value is clearly with the double-digit road dog.

The schedule has been brutal of late which is a big reason for the Nets' struggles.  Their last three losses have come to the Raptors (twice) and Rockets.  They also lost 95-104 at home to the Pelicans on January 12th just over a week ago, which places them in revenge mode here in the rematch.

The Pelicans are getting too much respect from the books and the betting public due to going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  But now we find them laying double-digits for the first time all season.  In fact, they haven't been more than 6-point favorites in any other game this year.

New Orleans is 12-26 ATS in its last 38 games off a home win by 20 points or more.  The Pelicans are 16-33 ATS in their last 49 vs. teams who are outscored by 9-plus points per game on the season.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with the Nets Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia 76ers +1.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are once again showing great value as home underdogs to the Portland Trail Blazers.  They are playing their best basketball of the season right now, yet getting no respect for it from the oddsmakers and betting public.

The 76ers have gone 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The two losses came on the road to Boston (by 4) and Washington (by 16), and that loss to the Wizards was the second of a back-to-back without Joel Embiid.  When Embiid has been on the floor, this has been a 54-win team, and without him they're an 11-win team.

The Portland Trail Blazers are a mess this season.  They have lost three straight coming in against Eastern Conference foes, losing by 6 at home to Orlando, and by 19 at Washington and 22 at Charlotte.  This team is just out of it mentally right now, and I don't foresee them turning it around any time soon.

Portland is 5-18 ATS off three straight non-conference games over the last three seasons.  The Blazers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games.  The 76ers are 29-14-1 ATS in their last 44 vs. Western Conference.  Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -1

The Charlotte Hornets finally ended a five-game losing streak with a 107-85 home victory over the Portland Trail Blazers last time out.  All five of those losses came on the road, but the Hornets are 13-7 at home this season.  Look for them to build off that win with another here tonight.

The Raptors will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here and started to show some fatigue in an 89-94 loss at Philadelphia on Wednesday.  And the Raptors are dealing with several injuries right now as DeMarre Carroll, Patrick Patterson and Lucas Nogueira are all questionable.

Toronto is 11-28 ATS in its last 39 road games versus teams who scored 103 or more points per game in the second half of the season.  The Raptors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games, and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Charlotte is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings, and 8-3 ATS in the last 11 home meetings.  Take the Hornets Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +13

The Cleveland Cavaliers will suffer a hangover effect from their blowout loss to the Golden State Warriors last time out.  There's no way they'll be able to get up for the Phoenix Suns like they were against the Warriors.

The Suns have been playing some of their best basketball of the season of late.  They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  That includes an upset 108-105 win over San Antonio as 12.5-point dogs, a narrow 101-106 loss to Utah as 6.5-point dogs and a narrow 116-120 loss to Cleveland as 8.5-point dogs.

That also puts the Suns in revenge mode here after losing to the Cavaliers by 4 on January 8th less than two weeks ago.  And the Suns haven't lost any of their last nine games by more than 11 points, so getting 13 points here is a tremendous value.

Phoenix is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.   The Cavaliers are 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Cleveland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Take the Suns Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa -2.5

It has been like night and day for the Iowa Hawkeyes home and away.  They have been terrible on the road, but dominant at home this season.  The Hawkeyes have won seven straight home games coming into this contest against Maryland.

The Hawkeyes are 3-0 at home in Big Ten play, beating Michigan 86-83 as 2.5-point dogs, Rutgers 68-62 and Purdue 83-78 as 6-point dogs.  They also topped Iowa State 78-64 as 6-point dogs as part of this seven-game home winning streak.

I think Maryland comes in overvalued due to its 16-2 record this season where it has done most of its damage at home.  And the Terrapins have won three straight by 7 points or fewer coming in, and I think their luck runs out tonight in Iowa City in these close games.

Iowa is 11-1 ATS in home games vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  They beat Maryland 71-55 in their last home meeting.  Bet Iowa Thursday.

15* Pacers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -1.5

The Sacramento Kings will be highly motivated for a victory here tonight.  They have lost five of their last six coming in while facing a brutal schedule.  The five losses have come against the Heat, Clippers, Warriors, Cavs and Thunder.

Another reason the Kings will be motivated is because this is their final home game before they partake in an 8-game road trip starting on Friday.  They have had two days off to get ready for the Pacers tonight, and they will be putting a lot into this game to get a victory.

Indiana is getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 6-1 in their last seven games overall against an extremely soft schedule with five of those wins coming at home.  But the Pacers are just 5-14 SU & 5-14 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 7.7 points per game.

Indiana is 1-10 ATS in road games off a win this season.  Sacramento is 9-1 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog this season.  The Pacers are 0-9 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams who make 76% or better this season.  The Kings are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up loss.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -3

Northern Iowa wants revenge from a 66-77 road loss to Loyola back on January 1st.  In fact, the Panthers have lost three straight in this series, so they'll be playing with triple revenge here.  Look for them to get that revenge at home tonight.

The Panthers are undervalued right now after going 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS during a stretch that dated back to a loss to Iowa.  They finally broke the streak with a 79-60 win at Drake last time out, and now they have their best player back healthy in Jeremy Morgan (16.9 ppg), who returned for the Drake game and scored 21 points.

Conversely, Loyola comes in overvalued after going 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  But the Ramblers have not fared well at UNI, going 1-4 straight up in their last five road meetings in this series.

The Panthers are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up win.  Northern Iowa is 15-7-1 ATS in its last 23 games as a home favorite.  The Panthers are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  The Panthers are 22-7 ATS off a conference win over the last three years.  Bet Northern Iowa Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma +17

The Oklahoma Sooners are as undervalued as they'll be all season right now.  That's because they lost seven straight games before finally ending that streak with an 84-75 home win over Texas Tech on Saturday.  But the Sooners are still getting no respect from oddsmakers here despite going 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

The biggest reason for the Sooners' struggles was that Jordan Woodard was injured and missed several games.  But he's back healthy now as he returned in a 70-81 loss to Kansas as 12-point dogs prior to the Texas Tech win.  This team will be a tough out moving forward with Woodard back.

West Virginia is as overvalued as it is going to be at any point this season due to its 15-2 start to the season.  That was evident last time out as the Mountaineers barely survived in a 74-72 win at lowly Texas as 11.5-point favorites.  Now they're being asked to lay a whopping 17 points to the Sooners tonight.  They're going to have to play a perfect game to cover this massive number.  Take Oklahoma Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State -5.5

The Florida State Seminoles are a perfect 12-0 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 21.5 points per game.  They have been crushing opponents at home in ACC play, beating Wake Forest by 16, Virginia Tech by 15 and Duke by 16.

I believe Notre Dame comes into this game overvalued due to having won seven straight while covering each of the last four against the spread.  But the Fighting Irish's luck will run out here against an FSU team that is a legitimate contender to win the ACC this year.

The Seminoles beat the Fighting Irish 77-56 at home last season as 3-point underdogs.  They have actually won three of their last four meetings in this series.  This will be the toughest road game of the season for the Fighting Irish, who have been fortunate to escape with three close road wins by 5 points or less in ACC play.

Florida State is 9-0 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Seminoles are 11-1 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game over the last three years.  Roll with Florida State Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -10

The Wisconsin Badgers are the best team in the Big Ten.  They have been dominant at home this year, going 10-0 straight up and 6-1 ATS in lined games while winning by an average of 27.6 points per game.  They beat Rutgers by 20 and Ohio State by 23 in their first two conference home games.

The Michigan Wolverines have been an overvalued commodity this season, especially of late.  They are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only two conferences wins came at home, and both were close as they only beat Penn State 72-69 as 11.5-point favorites, and Nebraska 91-85 as 8.5-point favorites.

The Wolverines lost to Maryland by 7 at home, and both Iowa and Illinois (by 16) on the road.  They are now 0-4 in true road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 13.0 points per game.  The Wolverines have been outrebounded by 40 boards in Big Ten play.  Wisconsin outrebounds its opponents by an average of 11 boards per game.  That is going to be where this game is won and covered as the Badgers kill Michigan on the glass in this one.

Wisconsin is 8-0 ATS off a home conference win over the last two seasons.  The Badgers are 12-3 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last three years.  Wisconsin is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 vs. teams who make 77% or more of their free throw attempts.  Michigan is 1-8 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less this season.  The Wolverines are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Badgers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite.  Roll with Wisconsin Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -11.5

The San Antonio Spurs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after getting upset 108-105 by the Phoenix Suns in Mexico City.  And they have responded very well following a loss this season, going 7-1 while winning those seven games by an average of 19.7 points.

The Minnesota Timberwolves appeared to turn the corner with three straight home wins, but them promptly lost 87-98 on the road to the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday.  They are now just 5-14 SU & 6-13 ATS on the road this season.  And while they have just one day off in between games, the Spurs come in on two days' rest.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Spurs are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Timberwolves.  Seven of those eight wins have come by at least 14 points, so this series hasn't even been competitive.

San Antonio is 8-0 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last two seasons.  It is coming back to win by an average of 21.7 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron -5

Akron is probably the best team in the MAC this season.  The Zips are off to a 14-3 start this year, including a perfect 4-0 in conference play.  They have won seven straight games coming in to this showdown with rival Ohio.

The Bobcats are at a big disadvantage here.  Leading scorer and rebound Antonio Campbell (16.4 ppg, 8.9 rpg) suffered a foot injury on Saturday against Eastern Michigan.  He played just 3 minutes before exiting, and the Bobcats went on to get upset 49-53 as 7-point home favorites.  Campbell is doubtful to return tonight.

Akron is 8-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 20.8 points per game.  The Zips are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Bobcats, winning by 15 at home, 12 on the road and 12 at home.  I expect another double-digit blowout victory for the Zips tonight.

Akron is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread over the last three seasons.  THe Zips are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Akron is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Bobcats are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Zips are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and 7-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings.  Take Akron Tuesday.

20* Cavs/Warriors TNT Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 226.5

The books have set the bar too high in this NBA Finals rematch between the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers.  I look for a low-scoring affair in this contest, which is exactly what it has been the last several times these teams have gotten together.

In fact, the Warriors and Cavs haven't combined for more than 217 points in any of their last eight meetings.  They have averaged just 202.4 combined points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 24 points less than this posted total of 226.5.  As you can see, there is a ton of value with the UNDER.

Cleveland is 12-1 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 13-6 in Warriors last 19 games overall.  The UNDER is 22-8-2 in Warriors last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 5-0-2 in the last seven meetings in Golden State.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Seton Hall +14

No team has played Villanova tougher than Seton Hall over the past few seasons.  Last year, all three meetings between these teams were decided by 9 points or less.  The Pirates lost by 9 as 15-point road dogs, lost by 1 as 7-point home dogs and upset the Wildcats by 2 as 6-point dogs in the Big East Tournament.  The Pirates are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

Seton Hall brought back four starters from that team and his playing well again this season.  The Pirates are 12-5 this season with all five of their losses coming by 14 points or less, including three by 5 points or fewer.  Off back-to-back tough road losses to Marquette (by 3) and Providence (by 4), the Pirates will be highly motivated for a victory here.

I think Villanova comes in overvalued off three straight wins by 12 points or more against Marquette, Xavier and St. John's.  The Wildcats aren't going to be able to consistently cover these inflated spreads as the oddsmakers know the betting public is going to be quick to back the national champs moving forward.

Seton Hall is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog.  The Pirates are 6-0 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the last two years.  Seton Hall is 6-0 ATS after 15-plus games against teams that win 80% or more of their games.  The Wildcats are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater.  Take Seton Hall Monday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on NC State -7.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off a 75-63 upset home win as 10-point dogs to Clemson.  We saw what happened the last time the Yellow Jackets pulled off a 75-63 upset at home over UNC.  They proceeded to get blown out 57-110 at Duke in their next game.

The Yellow Jackets are just 1-3 on the road this season.  They haven't even been competitive away from home as they are getting outscored by 20.0 points per game on the highway.  I fully expect another double-digit blowout here.

NC State comes in hungry for a win after two straight road losses at UNC and Boston College.  I like the Wolfpack's chances of bouncing back here considering they are 10-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 18.5 points per game.  In their only ACC home game, they destroyed Virginia Tech 104-78.

Georgia Tech is 2-10 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  NC State is a perfect 9-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with NC State Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +13

The Brooklyn Nets are showing great value as double-digit home underdogs to the Houston Rockets Sunday.  The Nets have lost nine straight while going 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now.  That's why we are getting such a big number here.

The Houston Rockets are overvalued because they have gotten off to a surprising 31-11 start.  But it's starting to catch up to them as they are 0-3 ATS in their last three games while getting upset in two straight games.  However, the public support continues to be there for them, so the oddsmakers are forced to inflate their lines.

The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rockets.  They only lost 118-122 as 13.5-point road dogs in their first meeting this season in December, and now they are catching 13 again in the rematch at home this time around.  That just shows you that there is plenty of line value here.  Plus, the Nets won 110-105 as 5-point home dogs and 106-98 as 11.5-point road dogs in their two previous meetings with the Rockets.

The Nets are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (HOUSTON) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 78-38 (67.2%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Nets Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys -4

The Cowboys were one of the most underrated teams in the NFL for much of the season. They went 13-3 SU & 10-6 ATS and opened the season with 10 straight games without a loss against the spread. However, they then became overvalued and were great fade material down the stretch. I took advantage and went against them routinely, and they closed just 1-5 ATS in their final six games.

Because of that poor finish ATS, I believe the Cowboys are now undervalued heading into the playoffs. And while I’ve been riding the Packers religiously with a ton of success during their 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS run, I’m certain they are now overvalued and it’s time to fade them. This line should be closer to a touchdown in my opinion.

The Cowboys have had two weeks off to get healthy, plus they rested many starters in Week 17, so they’ll be ready to go. The Packers have gone through a grueling stretch with balls to the wall just to get in to the playoffs. And the injuries are now starting to take their toll. Both Jordy Nelson and Ty Montgomery, two of their biggest weapons on offense, were hurt in the win over the Giants. Nelson is doubtful this week, while Montgomery is questionable. Not to mention, the Packers have had a depleted secondary all season.

The Cowboys have the type of offense that can exploit a weak Green Bay defense. They rank 5th in the NFL in total offense at 376.7 yards per game. They are extremely balanced as they rank 2nd in the NFL in rushing at 149.8 yards per game, and they complete 67.3% of their passes while averaging 7.5 yards per attempt through the air. They are virtually unstoppable on offense.

That was clearly on display in their first meeting with the Packers this season. They went into Lambeau Field and won 30-16 as 5-point underdogs. They racked up 424 total yards on the suspect Packers’ defense, including 191 rushing and 233 passing. Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 157 yards on 28 carries, while Dak Prescott threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns with an interception.

I think the Cowboys are going to be able to score at will against a Green Bay defense that gives up 6.1 yards per play this season, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL. And the Packers have been especially poor defensively on the road, giving up 28.2 points per game, 388.6 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play. They wore down in their first meeting with the Cowboys, and that’s going to happen again with the way Dallas can possess the ball, averaging nearly 32 possession minutes per game.

Dallas is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 games off a loss by 14 points or more. Plays on favorites (DALLAS) – after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, with a winning record in the second half of the season are 44-18 (71%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on home teams (DALLAS) – after a loss by 14 or more points against opponent after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games are 50-22 (69.4%) ATS since 1983. The home team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Dallas.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

15* Texans/Patriots AFC ANNIHILATOR on Houston +16

By no means do I think the Texans will win this game, but 16 points is a ton. I think they can stay within the number and take this game down to the wire. There are numerous reasons they should be able to be competitive, and it starts with their defense.

The Texans actually ranked No. 1 in the NFL in total defense this season. They give up just 295.5 yards per game on the season, including 220.8 yards per game in their last four contest. They have one of the most underrated secondary’s in the NFL, ranking 2nd against the pass at 201.6 yards per game. Their defensive backs stick to receivers like glue, and they’re getting a solid pass rush led by Jadeveon Clowney. They certainly have what it takes to slow down Tom Brady and company.

A benching may be just what Brock Osweiler needed. He responded with one of his best games of the season against the Raiders. Osweiler finished 14 of 25 passing for 168 yards and a touchdown without an interception. By no means is he a top-tier quarterback now, but I think he can make enough plays to keep them in the game. And Lamar Miller is back healthy now, rushing for 73 yards and a score against the Raiders.

You’re going to hear this stat plenty leading up to this game. The Patriots have outscored the Texans 54-6 in their two meetings over the past two seasons. But the Texans’ defense actually played well in both games, limiting the Patriots to just 282 and 313 total yards. And they gave away the game earlier this season in a 27-0 loss by fumbling twice on special teams, turning the ball over three times in all. They actually outgained the Patriots 284-282 in that contest.

The Patriots are about as overvalued as they’ve been at any point this season. That’s because they come in to this game on a 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS run, including five straight covers. But the competition has been very suspect as they’ve faced the 49ers, Jets (twice), Rams, Ravens, Broncos and Dolphins. Only one of those teams made the playoffs, and that was a Miami squad that had nothing to play for against the Patriots in Week 17.

This will now be a step up in class for the Patriots against a Texans team playing their best football of the season. Houston has won four of its last five games overall with the only loss coming in a meaningless Week 17 game against Tennessee. The Texans have outgained their last four opponents by a combined 334 yards, or by an average of 83.5 yards per game.

Plays against favorites who score 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.  Roll with the Texans Saturday.

15* Spurs/Suns Mexico City No-Brainer on San Antonio -11

I look for the disciplined San Antonio Spurs to treat this game in Mexico City like a business trip.  I look for the youthful Phoenix Suns to treat this trip to Mexico City more like a vacation.  Expect the Spurs to roll because of their better mindset going in.

Plus, the Spurs have absolutely owned the Suns of late.  San Antonio is 9-0 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Phoenix.  Amazingly, seven of the last eight wins by the Spurs in this series have come by 14 points or more.  The last eight have also come by an average of 20.1 points per game, which is roughly nine points more than this 11-point spread.

Phoenix is 1-11 ATS in January road games over the last two seasons.  San Antonio is 9-1 ATS after a combined score of 215 points or more this season.  The Spurs are 16-3 ATS versus terrible defensive teams that allow 103 or more points per game this season.  The Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Roll with the Spurs Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois -3

The Illinois Fighting Illini are 9-1 at home this season.  They are 2-0 at home in Big Ten play with a 75-70 win over Ohio State and an 85-69 win over Michigan.  They also beat NC State 88-74 at home earlier this season.  It's clear that they are taking advantage of their home floor this year, and this is a short price as a result.

Maryland is coming off a huge 75-72 home win over Indiana as 1.5-point dogs.  The Terrapins have only played two true road games this year.  They erased a double-digit deficit late to beat Georgetown 76-75, and also topped Michigan 77-70.  I think this will be their toughest road test of the season here, and they are in line to suffer their first loss.

There's no question that the Fighting Illini will be the more motivated team here to avenge their 84-59 road loss to the Terrapins on December 27th in their season opener.  Conversely, the Terrapins probably feel like they just have to show up to win here after winning that game by 25, and it's going to work against them.

Illinois is 17-2 ATS in its last 19 home games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half of last game.  The Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  The home team has won five of the last six meetings in this series.  Take Illinois Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah +3

The Utah Utes are now healthy and playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won five of their last six games overall despite four of those games being played on the road.  Their only loss was a 10-point setback at Arizona.

I love the balance of this Utah team with six players averaging at least 10.4 points per game.  Leading scorer David Collette (15.4 ppg, 5.9 rpg) and Sedrick Barefield (12.1 ppg) have both missed eight games this season, while their best player in Kyle Kuzma (14.6 ppg, 9.5 rpg) has missed two.  But they have had their full compliment of players for a few games now and the results have shown that they are one of the best teams in the Pac-12.

I've been riding UCLA a lot this season, but not lately because they've been overvalued, as they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  And I believe them to be overvalued here after their 104-89 win at Colorado on Thursday as 5-point favorites.

That makes this a very tough spot for the Bruins, who will be playing their 2nd road game in 3 days.  With all the traveling they've had to do, they have had little time to prepare for Utah.  Meanwhile, the Utes beat USC 86-64 at home on Thursday and now get to stay at home here.  Without the travel, they'll be by far the more prepared team for this matchup.

The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Utah is 9-1 at home this season and winning by 22.4 points per game.  UCLA is 0-6 ATS in road games after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread over the last three seasons.  The Bruins are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. Pac-12 opponents.  UCLA is 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a road favorite.  Roll with Utah Saturday.

20* Seahawks/Falcons NFC No-Brainer on Atlanta -5

Obviously both teams are going to be motivated here. But I think the Falcons have the extra motivation after the way they lost in Seattle earlier this season, 24-26. The refs missed a pass interference call on Richard Sherman that would have set the Falcons up for a game-winning field goal. And that loss has left a sour taste in the Falcons’ mouths that they would love to wash out here.

To be honest, I think the Falcons are the best team in the NFL. They rank 1st in the league in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 1.1 yards per play. They average 6.7 yards per play on offense and give up 5.6 per play on defense. They are also 4th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 44.6 yards per game. This team just doesn’t get the same kind of respect as other top teams like the Cowboys and Patriots.

The Falcons rank 1st in the NFL in scoring offense, averaging 33.7 points per game. They are also 2nd in total offense at 415.8 yards per game. They have so many weapons this year that they are just so tough to tame. Julio Jones has been as efficient as ever, Taylor Gabriel and Mohamed Sanu are two of the most underrated receivers in the game, and Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman can both do it all rushing and receiving. Not to mention, center Alex Mack was a huge addition to this offensive line and has the boys up front playing as well as they have in a long time.

Certainly the Falcons don’t have a top defense, but they aren’t as bad on that side of the ball as they’re made out to be. They give up points and yards because opponents are consistently playing from behind. But they were much better down the stretch, giving up 19 or fewer points in four of their final six games. And the lone exceptions were the 29 points given up to the Chiefs in which 9 of those came from KC’s defense and special teams. And they allowed 32 to the Saints in the finale, but they had held them to only 13 points until fourth quarter garbage time with the game already decided.

The Seahawks were a great home team this year, but it has been a different story on the road. They are just 3-4-1 SU & 3-5 ATS in all road games this year. Their offense was abysmal on the road this season, averaging just 15.9 points per game. They lost 10-38 at Green Bay, 5-14 at Tampa Bay, 20-25 at New Orleans and 3-9 at Los Angeles. And they were fortunate to win 25-23 at San Francisco in Week 17.

Teams have been able to take advantage of the absence of Earl Thomas down the stretch. The Packers put up 38 points on the Seahawks, the Cardinals put up 34, and the 49ers even had some success with 23 points. You can just imagine what the best offense in the NFL is going to do against this Seattle defense this week. Matt Ryan threw for 335 yards and three touchdowns on this Seattle defense in the first meeting, and that was with Thomas in the lineup.

Seattle is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games after allowing 6 points or fewer last game. Atlanta is 9-2 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in its previous game over the last two seasons. The Seahawks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.  Take the Falcons Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech -2.5

The Virginia Tech Hokies are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball.  They are 13-3 this season and have been especially tough at home, going 10-0 with recent wins over Syracuse 83-73 as 3-point favorites and Duke 89-75 as 4.5-point dogs.

Notre Dame has only played two true road games this season.  The Fighting Irish are 2-0 in them, but they came by a combined 6 points at Miami 67-62 and at Pitt 78-77 in overtime.  This will easily be their toughest road test of the season, and I look for them to struggle in this hostile atmosphere.

Virginia Tech nearly beat Notre Dame as 12.5-point road dogs last year in their lone meeting.  The Hokies only lost that game by a final of 81-83.  And there's no question the Hokies are better this season and a legit contender in the ACC.  Look for them to prove that in this game.

The Hokies are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games, including 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Notre Dame is 3-11 ATS in road games off an ATS win over the last two seasons.  Virginia Tech is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three ATS over the last two seasons.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -4

The Charlotte Hornets are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three straight and five of their last six coming in.  Four of the losses came on the road to the Bulls, Pistons, Spurs and Rockets, while the lone home loss came to the Cavs.  They also beat the Thunder by 11 at home during this stretch.

It's safe to say that the recent struggles can almost exclusively be attributed to the tough schedule, and not poor performance.  But now the Hornets get a break in the schedule here against the lowly Philadelphia 76ers, who come in overvalued due to having gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The four wins came against the Nuggets, T'Wolves, Nets and Knicks, four below-average teams.

I like the fact that the Hornets will be motivated here because that means they aren't going to take the 76ers lightly.  And that's not something they do anyways.  That's obvious by the fact that the Hornets have won six straight meetings with the 76ers.  The last five have all come by 9 points or more and by an average of 17.0 points per game.  Look for the domination to continue tonight.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - an explosive offensive team (at least102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 110 points or more are 49-17 (74.2%) ATS since 1996.

Both Nicolas Batum and Cody Zeller are expected to return to the lineup tonight.  Batum missed the last three games, while Zeller sat out the last one.  The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Philadelphia.  The road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* Pistons/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Detroit +13.5

The Golden State Warriors have been great fade material of late.  They keep getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers because the betting public is always going to be heavy on them.  And as a result, their lines continue to be inflated, providing value on the opposing teams.

That has especially been the case of late as the Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall, and just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 contests.  They haven't won any of their last nine games by more than 12 points.  They clearly aren't concerned with winning by margins this year.

The Pistons just faced the Warriors on December 23rd in their first meeting this season.  They only lost that game 113-119 at home as 7-point dogs.  They beat the Warriors 113-95 as 7-point home dogs in their final meeting last season as well.  They've clearly proven they can play with this team.

Detroit is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 games when the total is 210 or more.  The Pistons are 13-3 ATS in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last three seasons.  The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Golden State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a straight up win.  Roll with the Pistons Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa +6

The Iowa Hawkeyes want revenge from a 67-89 loss at Purdue to open conference play this season.  They don't have to wait long to get it as they will now get a shot at the Boilermakers only two weeks later.  I look for them to take advantage and keep this game close, possibly pulling off the upset.

The Hawkeyes have played well since that defeat.  They beat Michigan 86-83 in overtime at home, only lost 90-93 in double-overtime at Nebraska in a game they should have won, and then beat Rutgers 68-62 at home last time out.  Iowa has now won six straight home games, which includes a 78-64 victory over Iowa State as well.

This is clearly a letdown spot for Purdue.  The Boilermakers are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 66-55 victory over Wisconsin, which was the favorite to win the conference coming into the season.  This will only be the third true road game for the Boilermakers this season.  They lost 64-71 at Louisville and barely beat Ohio State 76-75.

Iowa is 6-0 ATS in home games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 10-1 ATS in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The home team is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  The Boilermakers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Iowa City.  Take Iowa Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah -5

The Utah Utes have gotten healthy and are now playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won four of their last five games overall despite four of those games being played on the road.  The lone loss was a 10-point setback at Arizona.

I love the balance of this Utah team with six players averaging at least 10.6 points per game.  Leading scorer David Collette (15.4 ppg, 6.0 rpg) and Sedrick Barefield (11.9 ppg) have both missed eight games this season, while their best player in Kyle Kuzma (14.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg) has missed two.  But they have their full compliment of players now moving forward.

The USC Trojans got off to a 14-0 start this season against a very weak schedule, but they've since lost two of their last three.  They lost 61-84 at Oregon and 73-74 at home to California with their lone victory coming at home against lowly Stanford.  Their true colors are starting to show as they are now 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Utes are a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Trojans.  Each of the last six victories have come by at least 8 points and by an average of 16.2 points per game.  This appears to be a very short price given the series history.

Utah is 8-1 at home this season, and 8-1 ATS after playing two consecutive road games over the last three seasons.  The Trojans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  USC is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Utes are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Utah Thursday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Wyoming -4.5

The Wyoming Cowboys have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.  They are 9-0 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 13 points per game.  I think this is a very short number here and we'll take advantage.

That's especially the case considering the Cowboys will be motivated for a victory after losing two straight and three of their last four coming in.  The last two were both true road games at UNLV and Fresno State, while the other was a tough 92-94 loss to a very good USC team on a neutral court.

Conversely, Utah State comes in off two straight home victories over UNLV and New Mexico.  But the Aggies have only played three true road games this season.  They lost 73-78 at Air Force, and barely beat Utah Valley State 80-79 in their last two.  This will be by far their toughest road test of the season here tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Wyoming is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings with Utah State, winning by 19, 23, 17 and 6 points, respectively.

Utah State is 0-7 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive unders over the last two seasons.  The Aggies are 0-7 ATS versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  Wyoming is 9-0 ATS in home games versus good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or better over the last three years.  The Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  These last five trends combine for a perfect 32-0 system backing the Cowboys.  Roll with Wyoming Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Timberwolves +4

The Minnesota Timberwolves have had numerous second-half collapses this season.  Perhaps none were worse than their 111-109 overtime loss at home to the Rockets in December.  They have 12 losses this season when leading by double-digits, and they led by 12 points with 2:19 left in that game.

But the Rockets closed on a 14-2 run thanks to four 3-pointers from Ryan Anderson and Trevor Ariza.  James Harden then scored 10 points in overtime to lead Houston to victory.  It's safe to say that the Timberwolves haven't forgotten, and they'll be highly motivated for revenge tonight as a result.

And just like in that game, Houston comes in playing the second of a back-to-back.  This will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Rockets.  They are running on fumes right now, and that started to show last night as they blew an 18-point lead in the fourth quarter to the Hornets, only to win 121-114 as 9-point favorites.  They won't be so fortunate to escape with victory again tonight.

The Timberwolves are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -5.5

The Marquette Golden Eagles don't have to wait long for revenge.  They just lost 66-69 at Seton Hall on January 1st, and now they face the Pirates again 10 days later at home this time around.  I look for them to get their revenge in blowout fashion.

After opening the Big East campaign with a 76-66 win over Georgetown, the Golden Eagles have lost two straight tough road games and Seton Hall and Villanova.  But now they return home where they are 8-1 on the season and outscoring opponents by an average of 19.4 points per game.

Seton Hall has only played two true road games all season.  One was a win over a down Iowa team, while the other resulted in a 14-point loss at Creighton.  The Pirates are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Take Marquette Wednesday.

15* Blazers/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles ML +110

The Los Angeles Lakers have been playing extremely well at home this season.  They are 10-10 at home, and they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home games with wins by 14 over Memphis, by 27 over Miami and by 16 over Orlando.  Look for them to continue to roll at home tonight.

The Portland Trail Blazers are clearly having a down season.  They are just 16-23 on the year, and they have really struggled on the road, going 6-15 SU & 8-13 ATS.  Their biggest problem is giving up 113.9 points per game on average in road games this season.

The Lakers will be extra motivated tonight to avenge a 109-118 road loss at Portland on January 5th just five days ago.  They actually led that game 62-53 at halftime before blowing it in the second half, especially in the last few minutes.  Look for them to get their payback less than a week later here.

Portland is 2-10 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season.  The Blazers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS loss.  Portland is 1-5 ATS in its last six after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Lakers have actually lost nine straight in this series, which only adds to their motivation for a win here.  Take the Lakers on the Money Line Tuesday. 

15* Duke/Florida State ACC Tuesday No-Brainer on Florida State -2.5

The Florida State Seminoles continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They are 15-1 this season with wins over the likes of Minnesota, Florida, Wake Forest and VA Tech at home, and Virginia on the road.  They are clearly one of the best teams in the ACC.

Duke continues to be overvalued.  It has gone just 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Blue Devils have only played two true road games this season, winning at UNLV but losing 75-89 at Virginia Tech despite being 4.5-point favorites.  And they only won by 11 as 26-point favorites over Boston College last time out.

Injuries have played a part in Duke's struggles, and it will be without another key player tonight.  Amile Jefferson (13.6 ppg, 10.1 rpg) has been their best interior player all season, and he is expected to miss this game with a foot injury.  Look for the Seminoles to take advantage.  They are 11-0 SU & 7-2 ATS at home this season and will feed off their rowdy home crowd tonight.

Duke is 0-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Florida State is 6-0 ATS in home games after scoring 85 points or more over the last two years.  The Seminoles are 8-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Blue Devils are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.  These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Seminoles.  Bet Florida State Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -4

The Toronto Raptors will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight against the Boston Celtics.  The Raptors are going through their worst stretch of the season, losing five of their last seven games overall.  And that's why they are undervalued right now laying only 4 points at home here.

Conversely, the Boston Celtics have won four straight coming in, making them overvalued right now.  But keep in mind that all four of those victories came at home, and they were mostly against subpar teams in the Heat, Jazz, 76ers and Pelicans.  And they only beat the Heat by 3 and the 76ers by 4.

The Raptors have had the Celtics' number, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  And while the Raptors are basically at full strength right now, the Celtics are not.  They will be missing both center Tyler Zeller and starting shooting guard Avery Bradley for this one.  Not having Bradley is huge because he plays such great defense against opponents' best guards.

The Celtics are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games playing on two days' rest.  The Raptors are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Toronto is 8-1 ATS after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more points this season.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech -3.5

Off back-to-back tough road losses at NC State and Florida State, look for the Virginia Tech Hokies to come back highly motivated for a victory at home here tonight against Syracuse.  I think they come in undervalued after their first losing streak of the season.

Syracuse is starting to get some love from oddsmakers now after winning and covering back-to-back home games against Miami by 15 and Pittsburgh by 11.  But keep in mind that the Orange are 0-2 in true road games with blowout losses to Wisconsin by 17 as 6-point dogs and to Boston College by 15 as 10.5-point favorites.

Also keep in mind that Virginia Tech is 9-0 at home this season and winning by 19.7 points per game on average.  That includes a win over Duke 89-75 as 4.5-point dogs in their ACC home opener just a week and a half ago.  I look for them to bounce back with a dominant win here as well.

Virginia Tech is 15-3 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Hokies are 6-0 ATS in home games off a conference loss over the last two seasons.  Virginia Tech is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games.  The Hokies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.  The Orange are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Roll with Virginia Tech Tuesday.

20* Clemson/Alabama National Championship Rematch on Clemson +7

Clemson survived some scares early on in the season, and I think the 42-43 loss to Pitt awoke this team. The Tigers have gone on to win their last four games in dominant fashion with a 22-point win at Wake Forest, a 49-point win over rival South Carolina, a 42-35 victory over Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship and that 31-0 shutout of Urban Meyer and Ohio State last week. And that game against VA Tech was a 21-point game until the Hokies tacked on a few touchdowns in garbage time with the game basically decided.

Dabo Swinney is now 5-1 SU & and a perfect 6-0 ATS in his last six bowl games. All six have come in the role of the underdog. Clemson beat LSU and Les Miles 25-24 in 2012, Meyer and Ohio State 40-35 in 2013, blew out Oklahoma and Bob Stoops twice 40-6 and 37-17 in 2014 and ’15, respectively, and gave Alabama and Nick Saban a run for its money in a 40-45 loss in the Championship Game last year. Then they beat Meyer and Ohio State again by 31 points last week.

Now the Tigers find themselves in the role of the dog again this week and looking for revenge from that loss to Alabama last year. You could certainly argue that the Tigers outplayed the Crimson Tide in that contest and should have won. They outgained them by 77 yards and racked up 550 total yards in the loss.

Deshaun Watson had himself a day, throwing for 405 yards and four touchdowns with only one interception, while also rushing for 73 yards.  The key play was an onside kick called by Nick Saban late that was recovered by Alabama.  Saban admitted that they couldn't stop them afterwards, which was the reason he went for the onside.  He didn't see much of a difference in giving them the ball at the 20 or the 50, because they were going to score anyways.

Alabama hasn’t faced an offense as explosive as this Clemson outfit this season. The Tigers are putting up 39.5 points, 502.1 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season. And the defense continues to be one of the most underrated in the country, giving up only 17.1 points, 306.9 yards per game and 4.6 per play. This will be by far Alabama’s toughest test of the season, and they always tend to struggle against dual-threat quarterbacks because they play man-to-man on defense and can't account for Watson's running ability.

I think there has been a big distraction with Lane Kiffin that could hurt the Crimson Tide here. He was let go after the win over Washington, and now Steve Sarkisian will be replacing him. There could be some chemistry issues there with Sarkisian and QB Jalen Hurts. And Hurts played his worst game of the season against Washington, completing only 7-of-14 passes for 57 yards, while also rushing for only 50 yards on 19 carries. They won in spite of him, thanks in large part to another defensive touchdown, which was their 11th of the season.

It's clear that the SEC was overrated this season, while the ACC was vastly underrated.  The SEC went just 6-6 in bowl games this season.  The ACC went 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS in bowl games.  That includes big wins by Florida State over Michigan and Virginia Tech over Arkansas, and obviously Clemson's win over Ohio State.

Clemson is 8-1 ATS vs. excellent teams who outscore opponents by 17-plus points per game on the season over the last two seasons. The Tigers are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points. Swinney is 8-0 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Clemson. Swinney is 10-1 ATS in road games vs. good rushing defenses that allow 3.25 or fewer yards per play as the coach of Clemson.  Bet Clemson Monday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks -3.5

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost seven of their last eight games overall coming in and need a win here to stem the tide.  I look for them to come out with an inspired effort tonight as a result.

The Pelicans have lost three straight coming in.  They are just 4-13 SU & 6-10-1 ATS in all road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 7.3 points per game on the season.  The Knicks are 11-7 SU & 12-6 ATS at home, finally enjoying a home-court advantage this season as fans have been excited about this team.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series in recent meetings.  In fact, the home team is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Pelicans are 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to New York.

The Knicks are 12-2 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.  New York is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games.  The Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Pelicans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the Knicks Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -3.5

The Portland Trail Blazers just recently returned their best player to the lineup in Damian Lillard.  They are starting to play much better of late with a 5-1 ATS record in their last six contests.  They are once again being undervalued here as only 3.5-point favorites over the Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons don't deserve the kind of respect they're getting from oddsmakers here.  They are just 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Detroit is also 7-12 SU & 7-12 ATS in road games this season, while Portland is 10-7 SU at home.

Plays against any team (DETROIT) - off an home win scoring 110 or more points, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) are 73-37 (66.4%) ATS since 1996.

The Pistons are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Detroit is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on one days' rest.  Portland is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Portland.  Take the Blazers Sunday.

20* Wisconsin/Purdue Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Purdue -3

The Purdue Boilermakers are on a mission to win the Big Ten this season.  Almost everyone picked Wisconsin prior to the season, so they know that they need to knock off the Badgers here.  That's especially the case after suffering an upset loss to Minnesota a couple games back.

Purdue has a tremendous home-court advantage, and it owned Wisconsin in both meetings last season.  The Boilermakers won 91-80 as 6-point home favorites and 61-55 as 5-point road favorites in their two meetings last year.  I think they win this game as well for their 3rd in a row in the series.

Purdue is 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in its last 14 home meetings with Wisconsin.  The Boilermakers are 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game this season.  Purdue is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The Boilermakers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.  Roll with Purdue Sunday.

15* Dolphins/Steelers NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -10

The Steelers have really turned it on since their four-game losing streak midseason. They have now won seven straight games while going 5-1-1 ATS in the process. They outgained nine straight opponents before resting many of their starters last week against the Browns in a meaningless contest.

The Dolphins might be the most overrated team in the NFL. Yes, their record shows 10-6, but this is more like a 6-10 team when you look at the numbers. They have been outgained in five of their last six games. The Dolphins rank 29th in yardage differential on the season, getting outgained by 49.8 yards per game. Only the Rams, Browns and 49ers have been worse, so they are in some poor company.

This game will be a complete reversal of the first time these teams played back in October. In that game, Ben Roethlisberger was banged up. Now it’s the Dolphins with a banged-up starting quarterback in Ryan Tannehill, meaning Matt Moore will get the nod in the rematch. And the Dolphins could be missing as many as six players who played in that first meeting with the Steelers who are likely to be unavailable this time around, including two safeties on defense.

This game fits one of my favorite playoff systems. It involves betting on teams who played the tougher schedule during the regular season. Wild card teams who played the tougher schedule are 40-16 SU & 40-15-1 ATS over the last 14 seasons since the wild card system was adopted. When there is a difference of 10 or more in strength of schedule, the teams who played the tougher schedule are 23-4 SU & 22-4-1 ATS. The Steelers played the 11th-toughest schedule this season, while the Dolphins played the 27th.

The Dolphins have one of the worst defenses in the league. They rank 30th in rushing defense at 140 yards per game and dead last at 4.8 yards per carry. They allow 383 total yards per game and 5.8 per play. Look for Le’Veon Bell to have a field day against the Dolphins here. The Steelers have averaged 135 rushing yards per game in their last seven contests.  Like Bell, Antonio Brown and Big Ben also rested last week, so they should come in firing on all cylinders and ready to go.

While the Steelers’ offense gets all the credit, it’s the improvement from the defense that makes this team a real Super Bowl contender. The Steelers only give up 20.4 points per game this season. They have allowed 20 or fewer points in five of their last seven games overall. And I think you can throw out the Cleveland game at the end in which they gave up 24 points because they weren’t interested.

Miami is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game. Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games off a game where both teams score 24 or more points. Mike Tomlin is 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points as the coach of the Steelers. Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS vs. poor defensive teams who allow 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season over the last two years. The Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven playoff home games. The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last four playoff games.

Many bettors are going to see the Dolphins catching double-digits with this 10-point spread and just jump on them thinking there's value.  But there's a lot of good reasons why they are double-digit dogs.  And keep in mind, the last five double-digit favorites in the playoffs are a perfect 5-0 ATS.  These playoff teams are always focused, so you don't have to worry about letdowns.  And Pittsburgh wants its revenge from that earlier loss to Miami.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington State +15

The Washington State Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are a senior-laden team that has won four straight, including each of their first two Pac-12 games with a 79-74 win at Washington as 12.5-point dogs and a 75-62 home victory over Oregon State as 4-point favorites.

I think Oregon comes into this game way overvalued due to winning 12 straight, including three straight to open conference play with victories over UCLA and USC at home, as well as Washington on the road.  It's time to fade them now that they are laying a whopping 15 points on the road to the Cougars here.

Washington is a common opponent.  The Cougars beat the Huskies 79-74 on the road, while the Ducks beat them 83-61 on the road.  But that was a close game against Washington until Tyler Dorsey caught fire late in the second half to pull away.  He made 8-of-12 3-pointers for the game with almost all of them coming in the second half.  It was a 22-point win, but that game was much closer than that.

The home team is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Washington State upset Oregon 108-99 in its last home meeting with the Ducks.  The Ducks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a ATS win.  The Ducks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater.  The Cougars are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet Washington State Saturday.

15* Oklahoma State/Baylor Big 12 No-Brainer on Oklahoma State +11

The Baylor Bears are way overvalued right now due to their 14-0 start to the season that has them sitting as the No. 2 ranked team in the country.  We saw evidence of that last time out as the Bears needed a game-winner late to beat Iowa State 65-63 at home as 8.5-point favorites.

The Bears are feeling fat and happy and ripe for an upset right now.  Meanwhile, the Oklahoma State Cowboys are hungry for their first taste of victory within the conference after starting 0-2 with a home loss to West Virginia, and a tough 79-82 road loss at Texas.

But we've seen earlier what the Cowboys are capable of on the road.  They've blown out Georgetown 97-70 on a neutral court, won 93-76 at Wichita State as 7.5-point dogs, and only lost 70-71 at Maryland.  They are certainly capable of pulling off the upset here, let alone staying within 11 points of Baylor here.

Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (BAYLOR) - off a home win against a conference rival, with just two starters returning from last season are 70-36 (66%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5.  Take Oklahoma State Saturday.

20* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland Raiders +4

The Houston Texans won the worst division in the NFL in the AFC South for a second consecutive season. Now they are getting some big-time line respect from the books in the wild card round, and I don’t think it’s warranted. I believe there to be a lot of value here with the Raiders as 4-point underdogs.

Just think back to the regular season meeting when the Raiders were 6.5-point favorites over the Texans in Mexico City and won 27-20. There has been a 10.5-point adjustment since that night in terms of the point spread, and that fact alone shows that there is value with the Raiders.

Of course, I realize Derek Carr is now out for the season, so that makes a difference. But I don’t think it is worth as much as oddsmakers are adjusting for. And it’s not like the quarterback situation in Oakland with Connor Cook starting is that much worse off than the one in Houston.  Cook actually played well against Denver's #1 pass defense last week, completing 14-of-21 passes for 150 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

The Texans are giving Brock Osweiler the start. He was benched in the Jacksonville game in Week 15 in favor of Tom Savage. Savage led them to a comeback 21-20 win, and then a 12-10 win over Cincinnati in Week 16 that clinched the division. Savage started against the Titans in Week 17, but was knocked out of the game with a concussion.

It’s well documented that Osweiler has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this season. He ranks 29th out of 30 quarterbacks in QBR, with only Ryan Fitzpatrick being worse.  He is completing just 59 percent of his passes with 15 touchdowns and 16 interceptions while averaging a measly 5.8 yards per attempt. He’s the reason the Texans rank just 29th in total offense at 314.7 yards per game, and 29th in passing offense at 198.5 yards per game.

I think that bad showing against the Broncos on the road has the Raiders undervalued here. They were shell-shocked once McGloin got injured. But now they’ve got a full week to get ready. And this is a team that went 12-4 this season against the fourth-toughest schedule in the league. I think that is being discounted way too much here.

One of my favorite wild card round systems involves backing teams that played the tougher schedule in the Sagarin ratings. Teams that played the tougher schedule have gone 40-16 SU & 40-15-1 ATS in the wild card round in the last 14 seasons. The Raiders played the 4th-toughest schedule, while the Texans played the 18th. When there is a 10 or more SOS difference between them, the team that played the tougher schedule has gone 23-4 SU & 22-4-1 ATS, and this matchup fits that criteria.

The Raiders are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. Oakland is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games following an ATS loss. The Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record. Oakland is 8-1 ATS off a loss by 14 points or more over the last three seasons.  Bet the Raiders Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma +11

The Oklahoma Sooners are way undervalued right now.  They have lost five straight coming in, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  But four of those five losses came by 5 points or less with the lone exception being a blowout loss to unbeaten Baylor, one of the top teams in the country.

Oklahoma was just catching 11 points at TCU and only lost 57-60.  But the Sooners have been without PG Jordan Woodard in recent games, and he's doubtful again tonight.  The oddsmakers are over-adjusting for his absence, and the Sooners are starting to get used to playing without him.

I think this is a tremendous spot to fade Kansas State, which is coming off its biggest game of the season in an 88-90 road loss to rival Kansas.  I look for the Wildcats to suffer an emotional hangover from that defeat and to come out flat today against the Sooners.  They won't have the kind of focus and intensity it's going to take to put the Sooners away by double-digits.  Oklahoma will be the more motivated team looking to end this 5-game skid.

Nine of the last 10 meetings in this series have been decided by 11 points or fewer.  The Sooners are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5.  The Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS win.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.

20* Knicks/Bucks ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 214

The New York Knicks and Milwaukee Bucks will be playing a home-and-home here Friday night.  They just played on Wednesday, and the Bucks won 105-104 on a game-winner at the buzzer by the Giannis Antetokounmpo.  Now they are playing just two nights later.

I always look to back the UNDER in the second meeting of these home-and-home situations.  That's because there is a familiarity between the teams that makes points harder to come by in the second meeting.  And I think that will be the case again here as these teams combined for 209 points with a 213-point total in the first meeting, and now the total is actually set higher at 214 in the rematch, so the oddsmakers have failed to adjust.

And this has been a very low-scoring series in general.  In fact, the Bucks and Knicks have combined for 209 or fewer in seven of their last eight meetings.  They have averaged just 193.1 combined points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 21 points less than tonight's posted total of 214.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern -4

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 91-82 upset road win at Purdue as 14-point dogs.  This is clearly a huge letdown spot for them now, and I don't expect them to show up at all tonight at Northwestern.

Meanwhile, the Wildcats had their nine-game winning streak snapped with a 52-61 road loss to Michigan State last time out.  That came after an 87-77 win at Penn State in their conference opener.  The Wildcats will be hungry to get back in the win column here and to win their conference home opener tonight.

Both of these teams are improved this season, but it's worth noting that the Wildcats destroyed the Golden Gophers in their two meetings last year.  They won 77-52 as 2.5-point road favorites and 82-58 as 8-point home favorites.  They have now won five of the last six meetings in this series while going 5-1 ATS in the process.

Minnesota is 0-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  Northwestern is 6-0 ATS versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  The Golden Gophers are 1-15 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.  These four trends combine for a 35-1 system backing the Wildcats.  Roll with Northwestern Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are now playing their best basketball of the season now that they are fully healthy.  They have won four of their last five games overall with their only loss coming in Cleveland.  They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as well.  And now they are still getting no respect from oddsmakers as only 2.5-point home favorites here.

The Atlanta Hawks are getting a ton of respect from the books now that they have won four straight coming in.  However, this team is in a very bad spot tonight.  The Hawks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win in Orlando last night.  Meanwhile, the Pelicans come in on two days' rest after playing the Cavs on Monday.

Atlanta is 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 25% to 40% this season.  It is actually losing to these teams by an average of 7.4 points per game.  The Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.  The Pelicans are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Marshall -3.5

The Marshall Thundering Herd are one of the most improved teams in the country under Dan D'Antoni, Mike D'Antoni's brother, this season.  They have gone 9-3 ATS in all lined games this season, time and time again beting undervalued by oddsmakers.

Some of their losses have actually been more impressive than their wins.  They went into Cincinnati and forced overtime as 20.5-point dogs, only losing 91-93.  They went into Pitt as 12.5-point dogs and only lost 106-112.  Despite those back-to-back losses in late December, they didn't suffer any hangover as they went on to beat FIU 94-70 as 4-point road favorites and FAU 89-72 as 6.5-point favorites in their last two contests.

Marshall has a better team than last year, yet it swept Old Dominion in the season series last season.  The Thundering Herd won 78-75 as 6.5-point road dogs, then came back and stomped the Monarchs 82-65 as 2.5-point home favorites in the rematch.  I think another blowout can be expected here.

Marshall is 10-1 ATS off a win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Thundering Herd are 7-0 ATS after playing a road game this season.  The Thundering Herd are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Marshall Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington +10

After back-to-back huge victories over UCLA and USC, the Oregon Ducks are overvalued now.  The betting public has jumped all over them after handing both UCLA and USC their first losses of the season, and now they are being asked to lay a whopping 10 points on the road to Washington tonight.

Let's not let two performances mask how poorly the Ducks played in the early going.  They went just 4-7 ATS in their first 11 lined games.  And both of those big wins over UCLA and USC came at home, where the Ducks rarely lose.  But they have played just one true road game the entire season, which was a 49-66 loss at Baylor.

Washington comes in undervalued after a bad 74-79 home loss as 12.5-point favorites against Washington State.  But that was a rivalry game where anything can happen.  And the result has provided some extra line value here for the Huskies as the betting public wants nothing to do with this team, which has gone 1-6 ATS in their last seven contests.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  And these games are almost always close.  In fact, six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 8 points or fewer.  Washington is 6-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and 13-5 ATS in its last 18 home meetings.  The Ducks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS win.  The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Bet Washington Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Magic OVER 207

I believe the books have set the bar too low here in this contest between the Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic tonight.  These have been two dead-nut over teams of late and I think that trend continues here as we see plenty of offensive fireworks in this one, and little defense played.

The OVER is 4-0 in Magic's last four games overall.  They have combined for 214, 221, 221 and 218 points in those four contests.  The OVER is 7-4 in Hawks' last 11 games overall.  They have combined with their opponents for 217 or more points six times during this stretch.

And the recent head-to-head history favors the OVER, too.  In their first meeting this season, the Magic won 131-120 for 251 combined points.  There was very little defense played obviously as the Magic shot 58.6% from the floor while the Hawks shot 50.0%.

The OVER is 5-1-1 in Hawks last seven road games.  The OVER is 7-2 in Magic's last nine home games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Magic's last four after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Duquesne +10.5

This is a big number for the Duquesne Dukes to be catching tonight in their conference home opener against Virginia Commonwealth.  I'll gladly take the points with the way that the Dukes have been playing coming in.  This is a game they will have a chance to win outright.

The Dukes are 5-1 in their last six games overall.  That includes a 64-55 upset of Pitt as 14-point dogs on a neutral court.  The Dukes have lost five games this season, but only one of them came by double-digits, which was a true road game at national power Kentucky.  That is obviously understandable.

VCU has played only three true road games this season, and although it is 3-0 in those games, none of them came by double-digits.  They beat Liberty 64-59, Old Dominion 67-64 and George Mason 73-64.  As stated before, the Dukes haven't lost a home game by double-digits this year.

Duquesne is 6-0 ATS in a home game when the total is 140 to 144.5 over the last three seasons.  VCU is 58-83 ATS in its last 141 games as a favorite of 10 points or more.  The Dukes are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Take Duquesne Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas Mavericks +2

The Dallas Mavericks are starting to play better now that they've gotten healthy.  The have won four of their last eight games overall with three of their four losses coming on the road, and two of them to the Rockets and Warriors.  Amazingly, they're only 4.5 games out of the playoffs in the West, and they are clearly motivated to get this thing turned around.

"We obviously know we have a legit shot," Dirk Nowitzki said. "We've got to put a little string together and we've got to play better. We've got to find a way in close games to close some of those out and not always come out on the losing end. I don't think we're really playing for draft position.  We're playing to win every night."

I think this is a great spot to fade the Washington Wizards.  They are coming off a 91-101 loss to the Rockets on the road last night, blowing a 15-point lead after the first quarter.  Now they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back here, while the Mavs have had three days off in between games having last played on Friday.

The Mavericks have owned the Wizards, going 11-1 straight up in the last 12 meetings dating back to 2010.  The Wizards are 1-5 SU when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back this season, and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in this situation.  Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Bonaventure PK

I like this St. Bonaventure team.  It made the NCAA Tournament last year and is off to a 10-4 start this season with its four losses all coming by 7 points or less.  The Bonnies have gone on the road and won and covered against both Hofstra and UMass, winning 89-77 as 2-point dogs against the Minutemen in their Atlantic 10 opener.

Dayton is a quality team again this season at 10-3, but it has only played one true road game all season.  The Flyers will now be playing for the first time on the road since November 15th.  And they are likely to be doing it without their best player.

Charles Cooke has a bone bruise in his back and is questionable to play tonight.  He averages 18.7 points and 5.7 rebounds per game, leading the team in both categories.  The Flyers were already without third-leading scorer Josh Cunningham (13.2 ppg), who also leads the team with an average of 3.8 assists per game.

Dayton is 2-10 ATS in road games off a combined score of 125 points or fewer over the last three seasons.  St. Bonaventure is 12-3 ATS off a combined score of 165 points or more over the last three years.  The Flyers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  The Bonnies are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 conference games.  Roll with St. Bonaventure Tuesday.

15* UNC/Clemson ESPN 2 Tuesday No-Brainer on North Carolina -2.5

I expect a big effort from the North Carolina Tar Heels tonight.  They are coming off an ugly 63-75 loss at Georgia Tech as 17-point favorites in their ACC opener on Saturday.  Look for them to play motivated basketball here tonight to avoid an 0-2 start in conference play.

North Carolina leads the all-time series 130-20 over Clemson.  The Tar Heels have won eight straight meetings with the Tigers dating back to 2011.  They have won the last five in blowout fashion by 11, 24, 19, 9 and 22 points, respectively.

Clemson comes into this game getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to winning nine straight and covering each of their last four.  But that has mostly come against a soft schedule, and they had huge comeback wins over the two best teams they played in South Carolina (by 2) and Wake Forest (by 5).  They closed the game on a 12-0 run to beat the Demon Deacons on Saturday, which was highly unlikely.

North Carolina is 7-0 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 points or more since 1997.  The Tar Heels are 47-22 ATS in their last 69 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Tar Heels are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take North Carolina Tuesday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans +10

Now healthy for the first time all season, the New Orleans Pelicans are starting to show what they are capable of.  They have own four straight coming in and will be motivated to take on the defending champion Cavaliers tonight to show what they are made of.

The Cavaliers come in overvalued due to having won seven of their last eight games overall.  They are at a disadvantage here because they have only one day off in between games, while the Pelicans have had two days off to get ready for the Cavaliers.

The Pelicans have really had the Cavs' number in recent meetings, too.  They have won five of the last seven meetings overall, and eight of the last 11 as well.  The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Roll with the Pelicans Monday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Delaware +8.5

The Delaware Blue Hens are showing great value here as 8.5-point home dogs to the Charleston Cougars.  I think they're good enough to win this game outright, so getting the 8.5 points is just an added bonus here.

Delaware is 5-1 at home this season.  Its only loss came last time out against a very good Hofstra team by a final of 56-58 as 8-point dogs.  The Blue Hens pulled the 63-54 upset of Iona as 10-point dogs in their previous home game, too.  If they can handle those two teams, they can certainly handle Charleston.

One thing that really stood out to me was just how closely-contested this series has been in recent years.  Indeed, a ridiculous eight straight meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.  Seven of those came within the last three seasons.  And the home team has won seven of the last nine meetings.

Delaware is 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Charleston.  The Cougars are 14-39 ATS in their last 53 games following a ATS win.  The Blue Hens are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Delaware is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog.  Charleston is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 when playing its 2nd game in 3 days.  Bet Delaware Monday.

20* USC/Penn State Rose Bowl No-Brainer on USC -7

You could make the argument that USC has been the second-best team in the country over the final eight weeks of the season, and I would not disagree one bit.  The Trojans have won eight straight games coming in with seven of those victories coming by at least 13 points.  The only exception was a 21-17 win over Colorado in which they outgained the Buffaloes by 168 yards and should have won by more.

In fact, the Trojans have outgained their last eight opponents by a total of 1,463 yards, which is an average of 162 yards per game.  Their defense hasn't allowed more than 27 points in any of the eight games, including 20 or fewer six times.  And the offense has taken off ever since Sam Darnold took over.

Darnold lost his first start in a hostile environment in Utah, but played well in the defeat, and the Trojans have won eight straight since.  Darnold is already going to be among the Heisman favorites next year with what he has done this season.  He is completing 68.1 percent of his passes for 2,633 yards with 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Penn State was a team I was very high on coming into the season.  In fact, their OVER 7 wins was my favorite win total in college football, and I cashed it with ease.  But I think they are now getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.  They have been winning with smoke and mirrors lately and are fortunate to have won the Big Ten with an 11-2 record.

They have won their last nine games, which started with an overtime victory over Minnesota at home.  They were lucky to beat Ohio State with a blocked FG that was returned for a touchdown as they trailed by 14 in the 4th quarter.  They should have lost to Indiana on the road, and they came back from 21 down to beat Wisconsin in the title game. It has been a great run, but it ends here in the Rose Bowl.

USC will be better at almost every position on the field in this game, and certainly more athletic at most positions.  Trace McSorley had a great freshman season for the Nittany Lions, but he's not going to be able to make big plays against this USC secondary, which is led by 1st-team All-America CB Adoree Jackson.  He won the 2016 Thorpe Award as the nation's top defensive back, while also averaging 30.5 yards on kickoff returns and 15.9 on punt returns with a combined four touchdowns.

We saw a Big Ten team get dominated in the Rose Bowl last season.  Iowa lost to Stanford 16-45, and I think we could see a similar beat down here.  In fact, the Big Ten is just 2-11 in its last 13 Rose Bowl appearances dating back to 2001.  Despite winning the Big Ten this season, I think Penn State is just the 4th-best team in the conference, and they would be big underdogs to both Ohio State and Michigan, and small dogs to Wisconsin.  Since I believe USC is the second-best team in the country right now, it should be laying more than a touchdown here.

It's also worth noting that Penn State has recently suspended two of its starters in WR Saeed Blacknall and LB Manny Bowen.  Blacknall missed five games due to injury, but was a valuable piece down the stretch, especially in the Big Ten Championship as he had 6 catches, 155 yards and 2 touchdowns against Wisconsin.  Bowen has started 12 of 13 games this season, recording the fourth-most tackles (68) on the team.

USC is 9-2 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 250 or more passing yards per game over the last two seasons.  The Trojans are 7-1 ATS as favorites this season, winning by an average of 23 points per game.  The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Penn State is 1-4 ATS in its last five January games.  The Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last six January games.  The Trojans are 4-1 straight up in their last five Rose Bowls, winning by 14, 14, 32 and 14 points.  Bet USC in the Rose Bowl.

15* Iowa/Florida Outback Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +3

The Florida Gators are one of the most overrated teams in the country. It’s amazing they are still ranked 17th heading into the bowl season with how badly they were embarrassed when they took a step up in class late in the year. They simply took advantage of a down SEC East division, but this isn’t a good team.

That was evident with a 13-31 loss to Florida State and a 16-54 loss to Alabama in their last two games. The same thing happened to the Gators last season as they were blown out by both Florida State and Alabama, and then they went on to lose to Michigan 41-7 in the Citrus Bowl.

To the Gators’ credit, no team was hit harder by injuries this season than them. They will be a little healthier now going into their bowl game, but they are still missing a ridiculous amount of starters and will be nowhere near full strength. That’s why they should not be favored in this game.

Iowa, on the other hand, comes in underrated. The Hawkeyes underachieved this season after going 12-2 last year while making the Rose Bowl. But after their 5-4 start, they played their best football of the season down the stretch. They beat Michigan 14-13 as 24-point home dogs, shut out Illinois 28-0 as 8-point road favorites and dominated Nebraska 40-10 as 3-point home favorites. They should be getting more credit from oddsmakers with the way they finished.

Both of these offenses are limited in the passing game, but Iowa can at least run the football, while Florida cannot. The Hawkeyes averaged 172 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry against teams that only gave up 157 yards per game and 4.1 per carry on average. The Gators only managed 130 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry against teams that gave up 178 yards per game and 4.6 per carry.

Iowa closed the season by gaining 164 yards on the ground against Michigan, 262 against Illinois and 264 against Nebraska. Florida closed the season by giving up at least 219 rushing yards in five of its last seven games overall. The Hawkeyes are going to be able to find plenty of success on the ground against this Florida defense, which is still missing several key players along the front seven due to injury.

I think the Hawkeyes will be very motivated for a victory here to end a four-game bowl losing streak, including the embarrassing 45-16 loss to Stanford in the Rose Bowl last year. And the Hawkeye fans travel as well as almost any team in the country to these bowl games, especially to warm destinations like Tampa, Florida to get out of the cold weather they’re accustomed to in winter months. It won’t be as much of a home-field advantage for Florida as most think.

Iowa is 7-0 ATS in road games off a win over the last two seasons. Florida is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 after scoring 17 points or fewer in two straight games. The Hawkeyes are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in three straight games coming in. Plays against any team (FLORIDA) – after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after two straight wins by 28 or more points are 59-24 (71.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Iowa in the Outback Bowl.

15* Packers/Lions NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Green Bay -3

Aaron Rodgers is oh-so-close to coming through on his prediction that the Packers would run the table after their 4-6 start to the season.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS since, with their only non-cover coming against Chicago after they blew a late 17-point lead.  The other four wins have all come by 8 points or more.

I'm going to back Rodgers and company to finish the job they started.  They have all the momentum in the world right now, and I just don't think the Detroit Lions are the type of team that can stop them.  Especially with the way the Lions are playing right now.  I realize that we are paying a premium with the Packers here as 3-point road favorites, but I don't think it is going to matter.

Rodgers is the hottest quarterback in the NFL right now.  He has thrown 14 touchdown passes without an interception in the past six games.  He carved up a great Minnesota defense last week for 347 passing yards and four touchdowns, while adding a rushing score in the 38-25 victory.  Rodgers threw four touchdown passes in the 34-27 win over the Lions in Week 3 and has consistently torched them throughout his career.  Keep in mind the Packers led that game 31-3 before calling off the dogs.

It's a minor miracle the Lions even have a chance to win their division.  They have actually trailed in the 4th quarter in 14 of their 15 games this season, and they only have nine wins because Matthew Stafford has an NFL record eight fourth-quarter comeback victories this season.  It was obvious their luck would run out, and it clearly has.

The Lions have been thoroughly outplayed in their last two games.  They lost 6-17 to the Giants and 21-42 to the Cowboys the last two weeks.  Stafford went a combined 71-of-120 passing (59.2%) with four interceptions in his last three games overall.  This came after he suffered ligament damage to his right middle finger in the 20-17 win over Chicago three weeks ago.  He hasn't been the same since.

And Stafford is getting a lot of love lately, but he is just 4-42 in his career against teams that finished the season with a winning record.  And Rodgers should torch a Lions secondary that ranks 32nd against the pass according to Pro Football Outsiders.  The Lions have allowed 73% completions to opposing quarterbacks on the season.  They've given up 29 touchdown passes while registering just 20 sacks, so their pass rush is an issue, too.  And star CB Darius Slay missed last week's game due to injury and is questionable to return this week.

The schedule makers did the Lions no favors here, either.  The Lions had to play the Cowboys on Monday Night Football last week, while the Packers played the Vikings on Saturday.  So the Packers will essentially have two more days to get ready for this game than the Lions, who put a lot into that MNF game to try and clinch a playoff spot.  This is a very tough situation for the Lions here working on a short week with all of their injuries.

Green Bay is 9-1 ATS off a division game over the last two seasons.  Plays on road teams (GREEN BAY) - after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, in the last two weeks of the regular season are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Packers are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 vs. NFC North opponents.  The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 trips to Detroit.  Roll with the Packers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -6

The Indiana Pacers have underachieved up to this point of the season.  And I think they're going to be a good bet moving forward here.  I certainly like backing them at home as they are 12-5 SU & 9-8 ATS in home games this season.

I think the Orlando Magic come into this game overvalued.  They have gone 5-4 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall.  But they are coming off a 101-120 home loss to the Hornets, and they played that game without leading scoring Evan Fournier, who is questionable to play again tonight.

This is a matchup that the Pacers clearly love.  In fact, the Pacers are 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Magic.  They have absolutely dominated the Magic at home, going 9-1 straight up in the last 10 meetings with ALL nine victories coming by 10 points or more.  I think another double-digit victory can be expected here.  Roll with the Pacers Sunday.

20* NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons -7

The Atlanta Falcons are re-energized now after the Seahawks were upset by the Cardinals last week.  Now all the Falcons have to do is win this week against the Saints and they'll get the No. 2 seed and first-round bye.  They will certainly be locked in and focused to finish the job that they started and to have next week off.

The Falcons are playing better than anyone in the NFL right now.  They have won their last three games by an average of 24 points per game.  They have the league's top-ranked offense at 34 points and 413 yards per game on average.  What makes those numbers so impressive is that they've faced the league's toughest schedule in terms of opposing defenses played.

While the offense gets all the credit, and rightfully so, the defense is playing their best football of the season right now. The Falcons have allowed 19 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall, which is why they are blowing teams out on the regular.

I think the fact that the Saints haven't quit and have won their last two games over the Cardinals and Bucs the past two weeks is providing some line value here.  But we saw what happened earlier this season when these teams met in New Orleans.  The Falcons won that game 45-32 while racking up 442 total yards.  They can name their score on this awful Saints defense.

You could make the argument that the Falcons are the best team in the NFL.  They rank 1st in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 1.1 yards per play every time they snap the football.  The second-best mark in the league is 0.6 yards per play, which is a huge gap.

Atlanta is 7-1 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in its previous game this season.  The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. NFC South foes.  The Saints are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games in Week 17.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Evansville -2

The Evansville Purple Aces have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.  They have gone a perfect 8-0 at home this season while outscoring opponents by 19.0 points per game on average.  We'll gladly back them as only 2-point favorites over Northern Iowa here.

Northern Iowa is one of the most overrated teams in the land.  The Panthers are still getting too much credit for making the NCAA Tournament last year and winning a game, but this isn't nearly as good of a team.  That's evident by their 5-7 SU & 3-8 ATS record this year.  The Panthers have lost three straight and seven of their last nine while going 1-8 ATS in the process.  Their only wins came at home against North Dakota and South Dakota State.

The Purple Aces have had this game circled on their calendars.  Remarkably, they went 0-3 against Northern Iowa last season with the three losses coming by a combined 7 points.  They lost by 3, 2 and 2 points to the Panthers.  There's no question they are going to want some revenge here, and I think they get it in a big way.

Northern Iowa is 0-6 ATS in road games when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  The Panthers are 0-7 ATS versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  The Panthers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Take Evansville Sunday.

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars showed me a lot last week in their 38-17 win over the Tennessee Titans.  Yes, Marcus Mariota was knocked out, but that game was over by the time he departed.  They outgained the Titans by 152 yards. What makes the win even more impressive is that the Titans needed it to keep their playoff hopes alive, and the Jaguars stepped up to the plate and denied them.

Obviously, the Jaguars should have made the switch to interim coach Doug Marrone a lot sooner.  He has previous head coaching experience in Buffalo and actually did a great job there.  The Jaguars have suffered seven losses by a TD or less this season, so they are way better than their record, but Gus Bradley just wasn't getting it done late in games.

Blake Bortles is coming off his best game of the season, and should have another huge game against this awful Colts secondary.  He completed 26-of-38 passes for 325 yards with a touchdown and no picks against Tennessee.  In their 30-27 win over the Colts in London, Bortles threw for 207 yards and two touchdowns without a pick.  And the Jaguars beat the Colts 51-16 in their final meeting last year, throwing for 250 yards and three scores with zero INTs.

The Colts are in an awful spot here mentally.  They just had their dream-crushing loss to the Oakland Raiders last week, falling 25-33.  That loss officially eliminated them from the playoffs.  Now the quotes coming from the players and coaches are talking about how it was a lost season, and they are already looking ahead to next year.  They could care less about beating the Jaguars here after just getting eliminated from the playoffs last week.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are a very young team with some very nice pieces moving forward.  They will relish this opportunity to pull the season sweep of their division rivals, who have dominated this division for years.  There's no question in my mind that we are getting the more motivated team.  I'm also pretty sure we are getting the better team, and that team is catching 4.5 points.

The Jaguars actually rank 12th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 8.4 yards per game.  They have been led by a defense that ranks 4th in the NFL in giving up just 317.5 yards per game.  The Colts rank 22nd in yardage differential, getting outgained by 14.0 yards per game.  Their defense ranks 28th in the NFL in giving up 377.1 yards per game.  They just allowed 459 total yards to the Raiders last week in a game they needed to win.

Indianapolis is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games when revenging a close loss by 7 points or less.  Indianapolis is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game.  Take the Jaguars Sunday.

15* Nebraska/Maryland Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Maryland -7.5

The Maryland Terrapins are 13-1 this season, yet they continue lacking the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They were only 3-point home favorites over Illinois in their Big Ten opener, and I backed them successfully in an 84-59 blowout win.

I'm going to back the Terrapins again here Sunday at this short 7.5-point spread.  The main reason I like them here is because it's a good spot to fade the Nebraska Cornhuskers, who are coming off their biggest win of the season.  They beat Indiana 87-83 as 13.5-point road dogs on Wednesday.

Now the Cornhuskers are primed for a letdown here.  That's an Indiana team that is really struggling of late with recent double-digit losses to Louisville and Butler as well.  So I think the Huskers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers for that victory.  After all, the Huskers were terrible in their previous four games, losing to Creighton by 15, to Kansas by 17, to Gardner Webb by 8 as 14-point favorites, and they barely beat Southern 81-76 at home.

Nebraska is 11-29 ATS in its last 40 road games after scoring 80 points or more.  Maryland is 20-5 ATS in its last 25 home games after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games.  The Cornhuskers are 16-36 ATS in their last 52 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5.  Bet Maryland Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -11

The Utah Jazz are finally getting back to full strength as George Hill has returned to the lineup.  Hill is second on the team in scoring (20.1 ppg) and 1st in assists (4.3 apg).  He has only played in 12 games this season, and they won the last five in which he did.

Hill had 21 points, 8 boards and 6 assists in his return to the lineup on Thursday in a 100-83 win over Philadelphia.  The fact that the Jazz have posted a 20-13 record this season with Hill missing so much time just shows how good this team really is.  They're going to be very dangerous moving forward.

The Phoenix Suns are just 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They  haven't even been competitive as five of those six losses came by 13 points or more.  And the Suns are in a letdown spot off a huge home win over the Raptors on Thursday, but that was an awful spot for Toronto after playing the Warriors the night before.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  Utah is 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings, winning by a whopping 17.2 points per game on average.  The domination continues today as Utah rolls to a blowout home victory.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* Ohio State/Clemson Fiesta Bowl BAILOUT on Clemson +3.5

I would argue that this is the worst team Urban Meyer has had at Ohio State.  The Buckeyes got off to a tremendous start this season, but they have really backed their way into the four-team playoff with some fortunate victories along the way.

The Buckeyes are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They were lucky to survive Wisconsin in overtime, lost to Penn State as 17.5-point favorites, only beat Northwestern by 4 as 25.5-point favorites, only beat Michigan State 17-16 as 20.5-point favorites, and survived a double-OT game against Michigan 30-27 as 4.5-point favorites.

I realize the Clemson also survived some scares this season, but I think the 42-43 loss to Pitt awoke this team.  The Tigers went on to win their final three games with a 22-point win at Wake Forest, a 49-point win over rival South Carolina and a 42-35 victory over VA Tech in the ACC Championship.  However, that game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Tigers led by 21 in the fourth quarter before allowing some points in garbage time.

Urban Meyer gets massive respect from everyone, and he deserves it.  But I would put Dabo Swinney's credentials up against his and take Swinney with what he has done recently.  Most don't realize this, but Swinney 4-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS in his last five bowl games.  All five came in the underdog role.  
 
Clemson beat LSU and Les Miles 25-24 in 2012, Meyer and Ohio State 40-35 in 2013, blew out Oklahoma and Bob Stoops twice 40-6 and 37-17 in 2014 and '15, respectively, and gave Alabama and Nick Saban a run for its money in a 40-45 loss in the Championship Game last year.  No team has been more impressive in bowls than Clemson the past five years.

J.T. Barrett just isn't making big plays in the passing game.  The Buckeyes lack talented receivers, and they are just so predictable.  They only managed 23 points at the end of regulation against Wisconsin, 21 against Penn State, 24 against Northwestern, 17 against Michigan State and 17 at the end of regulation against Michigan.  Barrett is 25-of-54 for 210 yards in his last two games, which is under 4.0 yards per attempt.

And this is a Clemson team that is winning the battle at the line of scrimmage, especially the defensively.  The Tigers have 31 more sacks than their opponents this season.  This is a defense that gives up just 18.4 points, 126 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry, and 188 passing yards per game and 5.9 per attempt.

Ohio State was not strong at the line of scrimmage this year, only getting one more sack than their opponents on the season.  The Buckeyes were out-sacked by Penn State and Michigan by a combined 11 sacks, and Barrett was sacked 14 times in those two games.  Clemson is 2nd nationally in sacks this season, behind only Florida State.

Clemson boasts one of the top offenses in the country, averaging 40.2 points, 504.5 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  I like the fact that this team has experience in these big-game situations after falling just short last year, and they want to make amends.  Deshaun Watson also feels snubbed for finishing 2nd to Lamar Jackson in the Heisman Trophy voting.  Ohio State is a young squad with just six returning starters from last year that won't be ready for the moment.

Swinney is not only 5-0 ATS in his last five bowl games, but 8-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 17-plus points per game in his career at Clemson, and also 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of the Tigers.  We'll take these two never-lost systems straight to the bank Saturday.  Take Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl.

20* Washington/Alabama Peach Bowl No-Brainer on Washington +15

The Alabama Crimson Tide have been hearing about how great they are for a month.  Washington players have been hearing about how they have no chance.  Which team do you think will be more motivated?  It's obviously the Huskies, I fully expect them to give Alabama a game here.

Washington will be the best team that Alabama has faced this season.  You could make the case for LSU, and they were tied with Alabama in the fourth quarter.  But while Alabama has faced three teams with Top 10 defenses and one Top 10 offense this season, it hasn't faced a team with both.  The Huskies rank 6th in offense and 5th in defense in the country.

Most teams would be overrated if they led the nation in turnover margin like Washington, but that's just a staple of Chris Petersen-coached teams.  But Alabama actually led the country in defensive and special teams touchdowns, averaging more than one per game, which is unheard of.  The Huskies won't make those same colossal mistakes that others teams have made against the Crimson Tide this season.

I love getting Petersen in the underdog role.  He is 6-0 ATS as a dog in his career with extra time to prepare.  Peterson is also 5-0 all-time in Top-10 matchups.  He pulled off two outright upsets as underdogs dating back to his time at Boise State.  I trust him to come up with a game plan that will give his team the best chance of being competitive in this game.

One advantage the Huskies are going to have is in the passing game.  Jalen Hurts was inconsistent throwing the football this season, and it won't get any easier against a Huskies team that ranks 9th in pass-efficiency defense.  They can make the Crimson Tide one-dimensional here.  And the Huskies have Jake Browning, who ranks second in the Power 5 in completion percentage and TD passes on throws of at least 25 yards downfield.  He has thrown for a school-record 42 touchdowns on the season.

Washington's top four receivers average 17.2 yards per catch, and they have two studs in Dante Pettis and John Ross on the outside that can take the top off this Alabama defense.  The Crimson Tide rank 67th and 55th nationally in pass plays of more than 20 and 30 yards allowed, respectively.  Washington's offense ranks 38th and 9th in those two categories.  The Tide allowed several big passing plays against both Ole Miss and Texas A&M, which are two of the most similar offenses to this Washington outfit.

It's not like the Huskies are slouches against the run, either.  They give up just 124 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry against teams who average 176 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  Petersen is 9-1 ATS after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in four straight games in all games he has coached.  The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  Bet Washington in the Peach Bowl.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Florida State +9

The Florida State Seminoles are one of the top teams in the country in my opinion.  They are off to a 13-1 start this season.  They had a bad loss to Temple on a neutral court, but they've also beating some good teams in Illinois (by 11), Minnesota (by 8), George Washington (by 19), Florida (by 5) and Wake Forest (by 16).

I think Virginia comes in overvalued here due to back-to-back road wins and covers against both California and Louisville.  Well, California is down a notch this year, and Louisville was in a letdown spot off its huge win over Kentucky in its previous game.

We've seen Virginia actually play better on the road than at home this year.  The Cavaliers lost to West Virginia 57-66 at home, and they barely escaped with a 63-61 victory over Ohio State as 12-point favorites.  I think the Seminoles are good enough to stay within 9 points here and possibly pull off the upset.

Florida State is 10-1 ATS off two or more consecutive unders over the last two seasons.  The Seminoles are 10-1 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game over the last three years.  The Cavaliers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5.  Roll with Florida State Saturday.

20* Villanova/Creighton Battle of Unbeatens on Creighton +1

The Creighton Bluejays are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to a 13-0 start this season and have consistently been undervalued, going 9-3 ATS in their lined games.  I have backed them for a handful of them, and I'm going to take them here as they still aren't getting the respect they deserve.

Of course the defending champion Villanova Wildcats are going to be getting a ton of respect from the betting public.  That is the case here as they are road favorites.  But the Wildcats aren't as good as they were last year, and they just survived a 68-65 scare at home against DePaul as 24.5-point favorites on Wednesday.

The Bluejays have beaten some good teams along the way.  They beat Washington State, NC State and Ole Miss on neutral courts, Nebraska and Arizona State in true road games by 15 and 11 points, respectively.  They also beat a very good Wisconsin team by 12 in their toughest home game this year.  They are battle-tested and ready to show Villanova that they are the team to beat in the Big East this year.

Creighton is 12-3 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  The Bluejays are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six Big East games.  The Bluejays are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 home games.  It will be rocking today at Creighton, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Creighton Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Wake Forest +1

Wake Forest has taken a big step forward under Danny Manning this season.  The Demon Deacons are 9-4 this season while playing an absolutely brutal schedule.  Their four losses have all come on the road to the likes of Villanova, Northwestern, Xavier and Florida State.  They were in three of those games down to the wire.

But the Demon Deacons are 5-0 at home this season and winning by 20.8 points per game.  I just backed them recently in a 110-76 home win over LSU as 11-point favorites.  They have won all five of their home games by double-digits this year.

Clemson is a quality team, but this team hasn't been tested on the road.  The Tigers have played just one true road game, which was a 62-60 win at South Carolina in which they trailed basically the entire way before pulling it out in the closing seconds.  I don't believe they will be so fortunate in this one.

Clemson is 17-32 ATS in its last 49 road games after covering four or five of its last six against the spread.  The Demon Deacons are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss.  Wake Forest is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEMSON) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games are 79-44 (64.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on home teams as an underdog or pick (WAKE FOREST) - off a road loss against a conference rival against opponent off a home win scoring 85 or more points are 57-26 (68.7%) ATS over the last five years.  Take Wake Forest Saturday.

15* LSU/Louisville Citrus Bowl ANNIHILATOR on LSU -3

I think LSU is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Tigers were much better than an 8-4 team this season.  Their four losses came by a combined 23 points to Wisconsin, Auburn, Alabama and Florida.  They had a game-winning TD called back against Auburn on the final play, were tied with Alabama in the 4th quarter, and outgained Florida by 153 yards and clearly should have won that game if not for red zone issues.

I like the fact that Ed Orgeron signed a new contract, giving this program some stability, and the players clearly love him.  One of the best defensive coordinators in the country is sticking around in Dave Aranda, and now they hired one of the best offensive minds in the nation in Matt Canada for the future, who worked wonders at Pitt this season.  Things are looking up in Baton Rouge as the players, coaches and fans are all excited for the future.

I think Aranda's defense will be extremely motivated in this game.  They have been seeing Lamar Jackson posters all week leading up to this game after he won the Heisman Trophy.  They will be hungry to shut him down, and now I feel like this is the best defense he will have faced all season.  The Tigers have the speed to make Jackson a one-dimensional passer, and that is clearly his weakness.

I love the way that LSU finished the season when it could have packed it in after that loss to Florida.  The Tigers went out an dominated Texas A&M 54-39 on the road in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  And another reason I say this is better than an 8-4 team is because seven of the eight wins came by double-digits, while all four losses came in a closing seconds.

Louisville faced a ridiculously easy schedule this season and only has beaten one team that finished the season with a winning record in Florida State.  And the Cardinals have been overvalued since that win, going just 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  There have been several lackluster performances along the way.

Louisville only beat Duke 24-14 as 35-point favorites, only beat Virgina 32-25 as 32-point favorites, were actually trailing Wake Forest 12-10 in the 4th quarter, were blown out by Houston 36-10 as 17.5-point favorites, and were upset by Kentucky 38-41 as 28.5-point favorites.  With those five results, I don't know how you could possibly trust Louisville here.

I know Leonard Fournette won't play in this game, but I'm not concerned about that.  Derrius Guice is just as good, and I would argue even more explosive, as he has rushed for 1,249 yards and 14 touchdowns while averaging 8.0 yards per carry.  Fournette averaged 6.5 per carry this season.

And LSU is going to be able to run the football against this Louisville defense that gave up 201 yards and 6.5 per carry to Clemson and 229 yards and 5.3 per carry to Kentucky on the ground.  And the Cardinals have been sloppy with the football to say the last, ranking 108th in the country in giveaways with 31 on the season.  They have committed multiple turnovers in 10 of their 12 games, and 3-plus in eight of them.  They cannot be trusted because of it.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LOUISVILLE) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Orgeron is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who average at least 8 yards per pass attempt in all games he has coached.  I think Louisville is a one-trick pony with Jackson, and it will be at a disadvantage everywhere else on the field in this game.  Roll with LSU in the Citrus Bowl.

20* Michigan/FSU Orange Bowl No-Brainer on Florida State +7

The Michigan Wolverines had their dreams crushed with a 27-30 (OT) loss to Ohio State in the season finale that kept them out of the Big Ten Championship Game, and thus out of the four-team playoff. So while most teams would be excited to be going to the Orange Bowl, the Wolverines are not.

At the same time, the Florida State Seminoles are excited to be here. They had three losses through their first eight games of the season an easily could have packed it in. Instead, they went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their final four games and finished playing their best football of the season. They were rewarded by earning this trip to the Orange Bowl and clearly want to take advantage.

Michigan won a total of one game outside the state of Michigan this season, which was at lowly Rutgers. The Wolverines also faced only two offenses that ranked in the top 35 nationally in efficiency. One of those was a Penn State team that was clearly not as good when they played them as they are now. The other was Ohio State in the finale.

Florida State was oh-so-close to being an 11-1 team this season. The Seminoles lost on a 55-yard field goal to North Carolina on the final play of the game. They also lost in the final minutes to Clemson on a fluke penalty, and the Tigers are going to the four-team playoff.

Since October 8th, Florida State ranks 6th in the country in defensive efficiency. The Seminoles have allowed just three touchdowns in their last 42 opponent drives, and they didn’t allow a single first down in 25 of those drives. They lead the nation with 47 sacks as well. They face a Michigan offense that scored only six touchdowns in their final 38 drives while failing to gain a first down in 16 of those.

I don’t believe Michigan has faced an offense as talented and explosive as this FSU unit. The Seminoles have Dalvin Cook, who has rushed for 4,319 yards and 45 touchdowns in his career, which are school records. He has rushed for at least 100 yards in eight of the past nine games. Deondre Francois is one of the most electric young quarterbacks in the nation, completing 60.6 percent of his passes for 3,128 yards with 18 touchdowns against only six interceptions.

Florida State played the much tougher schedule this season. Eight of FSU’s 12 opponents played rank in the top 40, while only five opponents played by Michigan rank in the top 40. The betting public has been all over Michigan all season and continues to be in this Orange Bowl, but I think this is about as evenly-matched a bowl game as there is. Thus, getting a touchdown here with the Seminoles is a huge value.

Florida State is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing defenses who allow 5.75 or fewer yards per attempt over the last three seasons. The Seminoles are 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams who allow 4.5 or fewer yards per play over the last three years. Michigan is 26-46 ATS in its last 72 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  Bet Florida State in the Orange Bowl.

15* Bulls/Pacers NBA Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -4

The Indiana Pacers are undervalued right now after going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  All four losses came by 7 points or less, and three of them came on the road.  But the Pacers are 11-5 at home this season and are primed to bounce back here.

Adding to the Pacers' motivation is the fact that they just lost to the Bulls 85-90 on the road on Monday.  So, they are going to be out for revenge.  Paul George voiced his frustration with the officiating in that game as the Bulls shot 28 free throws compared to just 10 for the Pacers.  Don't be surprised if the refs favor the Pacers in the rematch.

The Bulls haven't exactly been world beaters of late and are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.  They are 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall with two of their victories coming by a combined 7 points.  One was a 101-99 home victory over lowly Brooklyn as 9.5-point favorites on Wednesday.

Indiana has won 33 of its last 45 home meetings with Chicago.  The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Indiana.  The home team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  Indiana is 23-8 ATS when playing four or less games in 10 days over the last three seasons.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on UMass -1.5

The UMass Minutemen are off to a 10-3 start this season.  They have been an undervalued commodity all year, which is evident by their 6-1 ATS mark.  And now they're only laying 1.5 points at home to St. Bonaventure, once again lacking the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.

UMass has gone 8-1 at home this season.  And their three losses all came down to the wire as they could easily be 13-0.  They lost by 2 at Ole Miss as 11-point dogs, by 6 at Providence as 8-point dogs and by 3 at home to UCF as 4-point dogs, covering the spread in all three defeats.

St. Bonaventure just lost to Canisius 101-106 as 11.5-point home favorites last time out.  They have also lost to the likes of UNC-Wilmington and Arkansas-Little Rock this season.  They are just 8-4 on the season and are clearly down a couple notches from last year.  They really don't have a significant win yet.  And they've only played one true road game, which was a 6-point win at Hofstra.

UMass is 9-1 ATS after having won four of its last five games over the past three seasons.  St. Bonaventure is 0-6 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in five straight games over the last two seasons.  The Bonnies are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Minutemen are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Take UMass Friday.

15* Nebraska/Tennessee Music City Bowl Mismatch on Tennessee -6.5

The Vols come into the bowl season undervalued because they underachieved this season. And they left a bad taste in bettors’ mouths with a 34-45 loss at Vanderbilt as 7.5-point favorites in the finale. But that was a bad spot for the Vols as they had been eliminated from SEC East contention the previous week as Florida beat LSU. And the Commodores wanted that game more as they were looking for their sixth win to get bowl eligible.

I think we’ll see a big effort from the Vols here to go out on a high note. When they have been motivated, they’ve taken care of business this season. And we’ve seen the last two years that Butch Jones knows how to get his teams ready for bowl games. And Jones knows that he needs a win here to get back in the good graces of the fans.

The last two years the Vols have dominated the Big Ten in bowl games. They beat Iowa 45-28 in the 2014 TaxSlayer Bowl as 3-point favorites. Then they easily covered last year as 10-point favorites over Northwestern in a 45-6 beat down in the Outback Bowl. I think we see history repeat itself here.

There is a big gap in strength of schedule between these teams. Tennessee played the 18th-toughest schedule in the country, while Nebraska played the 64th. The Huskers started 7-0, but it was a deceptive 7-0. They should have lost to lowly Oregon, and they needed second-half comebacks to beat both Illinois and Purdue, two terrible teams. We saw what happened when the Huskers took a step up in class, losing to Ohio State and Iowa by a combined score of 102-13.

And now the Huskers are expected to be without starting quarterback Tommy Armstrong, who is doubtful with a hamstring injury. That means backup Ryker Fyfe will get the nod. Fyfe has struggled in limited action, completing just 49.2% of his passes for 315 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt. Not to mention top wideout Jordan Westerkamp is expected to miss this game with a knee injury.

The extra bowl practices have helped the Volunteers get as healthy as they’ve been in a long time. The one player I trust the most in this game is senior QB Joshua Dobbs, who wants to end his career a winner. And Dobbs has this Tennessee offense hitting on all cylinders.

They have averaged 50.2 points over their last four games and Dobbs has had a hand in 15 of the 27 touchdowns scored. Dobbs holds the single-season rushing mark for a quarterback, and leads the SEC in touchdown passes (26), passer efficiency (152.6) and points responsible for (216). I just don’t know how Nebraska is going to keep up with Dobbs and company with a backup QB in Fyfe.

Tennessee is 45-25 ATS in its last 70 road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses. Nebraska is 11-26 ATS in its last 37 road games vs. good rushing teams who average at least 200 yards per game. Keep in mind that this will essentially be a home game for the Vols played in Nashville, which will also be a huge advantage. The Volunteers are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Roll with Tennessee in the Music City Bowl.

15* Stanford/UNC Sun Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Stanford -3.5

I know that Stanford will not have Christian McCaffrey, but I don’t think it’s going to matter. I actually think it motivates them even more because there will be a bunch of naysayers out there thinking they can’t win without him. This team is already motivated to get to 10 wins for the sixth time in the last seven seasons, which would be impressive considering they've played the 9th-toughest schedule in the country.

It’s not like backup Bryce Love is incapable, either. Love had 111 yards in the final regular-season game, he had 82 yards on five carries against Oregon, and a season-high 129 yards in the win at Notre Dame. He is actually averaging 7.4 yards per carry compared to 6.3 per carry for McCaffrey.

And Love is primed for a big game on the ground against a UNC defense that cannot stop the run, which is going to be the difference in this game. The Tar Heels allowed a ridiculous 236 rushing yards per game, 28 rushing touchdowns and 4.5 yards per carry this season. They were blitzed by Baylor in their bowl game last year and gave up over 600 rushing yards in the loss.

Stanford comes in playing well having won five in a row. Its offense has averaged over 543 yards per game over the past three contests. The difference was replacing Ryan Burns with sophomore Keller Chryst, who led the Cardinal to those five wins while throwing nine touchdowns and only one interception. And the Cardinal have been great in bowl games, covering six of their last seven, including winning the last two by 24 and 29 points as favorites.

Mitch Trubisky is a heck of a quarterback for the Tar Heels, but he’s more concerned about staying healthy and possibly being the top QB taken in the NFL Draft. And I don’t know how invested the Tar Heels will really be for this game after losing to rivals Duke and NC State to finish the season despite being double-digits favorites in both games. Those losses cost them a potential berth in the ACC Championship Game. ACC teams have lost five of the last six Sun Bowls.

And the strength of the Cardinal defense is the pass D, which ranks 10th in the country in pass defense efficiency. The defensive backfield was banged up early in the season but is healthy now. The Cardinal only allow 54.3% completions, 219 passing yards per game and 6.6 per attempt. So the UNC offensive strength is the strength of the Stanford D, while the UNC defensive weakness is the strength of the Stanford offense. That makes this a great matchup for the Cardinal, which is the main reason I like them here.

Stanford is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 road games vs teams who average at least 425 yards per game on offense. The Cardinal are 6-0 ATS vs. poor ball control teams who possess the ball for 28 or fewer minutes per game over the last two seasons. The Cardinal are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games and 7-0 ATS in their last seven December games. Stanford is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS loss. The Tar Heels are 0-5 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Take Stanford in the Sun Bowl.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego +11.5

The San Diego Toreros are a much-improved team this season.  They have gone 7-5 SU & 6-2 ATS in all games this year.  And four of their five losses have come to elite competition, and they covered the spread in a couple of those.

They lost by 10 at San Diego State as 19-point dogs and by 20 at UCLA as 27.5-point dogs.  After a 2-5 start to the season, the Toreros have gone a perfect 5-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have won outright as underdogs three times during this stretch, including twice on the road.

San Francisco is coming off a huge tournament in which it got to play Utah, Illinois State and San Diego State all on neutral courts.  It culminated in a 48-62 loss to San Diego State on Christmas Day, which gives these teams a common opponent.  San Diego lost by only 10 at San Diego State.

One thing that has stuck with me the last few years is that San Francisco has been a great road team, and a terrible home team.  The Dons are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games, and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite.  The Toreros are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The road team is 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings in this series.  Roll with San Diego Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are hungry for a victory after losing two straight and five of their last seven.  They are now undervalued here as only 1.5-point home favorites here because of their recent losing ways, but this is still one of the better teams in the Western Conference at 20-14 on the season.

It's the perfect storm really because the Oklahoma City Thunder coming in overvalued due to going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have mostly feasted on some poor opponents as their last six games have come against the Suns, Hawks, Pelicans, Celtics, Timberwolves and Heat.  Now they take a step up in class here tonight.

The Grizzlies have been a thorn in the Thunder's side, winning four of the last seven meetings, and all of those were with Kevin Durant on the team.  And home-court advantage has meant a lot in this series of late as well as they home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The favorite it 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings, and the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. 

Oklahoma City is 3-13 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  Memphis is 11-1 ATS in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Grizzlies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Memphis is 4-0 ATS in its last four Thursday games.  Bet the Grizzlies Thursday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Auburn -1.5

The Auburn Tigers continue flying under the radar this season.  Bruce Pearl is doing a tremendous job with the Tigers and has them off to a 10-2 start this season.  They have been competitive in every game outside of a neutral court loss to Purdue.

But they've beaten the likes of Texas Tech 67-65 as 6.5-point dogs, UAB 74-70 as 4-point dogs, Oklahoma 74-70 as 4.5-point dogs and UConn 70-67 as 3.5-point road dogs.  So, they are battle-tested as well and certainly haven't benefited from a cake schedule.

Georgia is just 8-4 this season.  Three of those losses came by double-digits.  The Bulldogs are 1-2 in true road games with a 10-point loss at Clemson, a win at down Georgia Tech, and a 7-point loss at Oakland despite being 2.5-point favorites.  The Bulldogs are battle-tested as well, but they have failed every test when taking a step up in class. I'm not sure why they continue to get so much respect from oddsmakers here as only 1.5-point road dogs.

Auburn has gone 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Georgia, and this is the best team the Tigers have had in a long time.  Auburn is 10-1 ATS in home games off two consecutive non-conference games over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.  Take Auburn Thursday.

25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas +7

The Arkansas Razorbacks played in the toughest division in the country in the SEC West.  As a result, they played the 26th-toughest schedule in the country this season and managed to go 7-5.  They only had one bad loss all season as they only lost once as a favorite, which was a 24-28 loss at Missouri in the finale in a game the Tigers were treating as their Super Bowl.  And they never should have lost as they blew a 24-7 lead and outgained the Tigers by 104 yards.

I think that loss will have the Razorbacks motivated heading into this bowl game.  It also has them undervalued as they are catching a full touchdown here to Virginia Tech.  This has been a very resilient Arkansas team all season as they are a perfect 4-0 straight up in their last four games following a defeat, not once losing two games in a row all season.

“I think they’ll be very eager,” coach Bret Bielema, whose team will be facing the Hokies for the first time in school history, told reporters. “We’d like to play one this week to get that taste out of your mouth. Our guys will handle it the right way. We’ve got a good group of seniors.”

Bielema certainly knows how to get his guys ready for bowl games.  He has led the Razorbacks to blowout victories each of the past two years in bowl games.  They routed Texas 31-7 as 7-point favorites in 2014, and buried Kansas State 45-23 as 13-point favorites in 2015.  And I love getting Bielema in the underdog role as he is 13-5-1 ATS in his last 19 tries.

Austin Allen might be the best quarterback in the SEC.  He completed 61.4 percent of his passes for 3,152 yards with 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.  His 23 touchdowns were the second-most in the conference.  The Razorbacks can still run the football this season behind Rawleigh Williams (1,326 yards, 12 TD, 5.7/carry), who is primed for a big game here.

Virginia Tech comes in overvalued after winning the down Coastal Division and only losing to Clemson by a touchdown in the ACC Championship Game.  However, the Hokies were down 21 late in that game, so it wasn't as close as the final score.  That was a deflating loss to the Hokies and I question their motivation coming into this game because of it.  They certainly won't be as up for this game as they were to play Clemson.

The Hokies only played the 51st-toughest schedule this season. And we saw what happened when they faced an SEC team earlier this year, losing 24-45 to Tennessee on a neutral field.  The reason the Razorbacks should have a big day on the ground is because the Hokies have been susceptible to the run.  They gave up 239 rushing yards to Tennessee, 227 to Duke, 309 to Georgia Tech and 200 to Notre Dame.  Williams is primed for his 8th 100-yard rushing effort of the season.

Arkansas is 6-0 ATS when playing with two or more weeks of rest over the last three seasons, winning by 15.1 points per game on average in this spot.  The Razorbacks crushed Florida 31-10 as 3-point dogs following their bye earlier this season.  Arkansas is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games following an upset loss as a road favorite.  The Razorbacks are 10-2 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three years.  Arkansas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  The Hokies are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  Virginia Tech is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. SEC opponents.  Bet Arkansas in the Belk Bowl.

15* USF/South Carolina Birmingham Bowl ANNIHILATOR on South Carolina +10.5

I question how motivated South Florida will be in this game. They just lost their head coach Willie Taggart to Oregon, and none of the current coaches on the staff are likely to stick around as Charlie Strong has been hired. The interim will be T.J. Weist, and David Reaves will serve as offensive coordinator.

The reason the loss of Taggart is so big is because he was also the guy who called the plays for the Bulls. This offense will still have firepower, but I just don’t think that South Florida will be hitting on all cylinders without Taggart calling the shots. It’s a situation I think we can profit from by fading the Bulls as they are being asked to lay double-digits here to an SEC team.

And that’s another key. South Carolina obviously played a much tougher schedule (56th) than South Florida (78th) this season because it plays in the SEC. And the Gamecocks showed very well in Will Muschamp’s first season. They’ll benefit from these extra bowl practices and should be excited to be playing in a bowl for the 12th time in 13 seasons because they didn’t get to go bowling last year. And this is a very young team that will relish the opportunity.

South Carolina was actually able to win three SEC games this year, including a 13-10 win at Vanderbilt as 5-point dogs, and a 24-21 home victory over Tennessee as 15-point dogs. To hold that high-powered Tennessee offense to just 21 points really says a lot about how good this Muschamp defense is. The Vols only managed 297 total yards in defeat.

Muschamp will come up with a game plan to slow down the high-powered attack of USF as well. The Bulls were used to playing some very poor defenses in the AAC, and I would argue that they haven’t faced a defense as good as the one they will be up against in the Birmingham Bowl. The Gamecocks only allow 24.8 points, 406 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play on the season despite facing a much more difficult schedule. They rank 10th nationally in takeaways with 25, and they have only allowed 28 touchdowns in 49 trips to the red zone by their opponents.

Freshman QB Jake Bentley improved as the season went on once he took over. He completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 1,030 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions. He should be in line for his best game of the season against a USF defense that was atrocious all season. The Bulls gave up 31.0 points per game, 482 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play this season. They have allowed at least 500 yards in four of their last five games.

The Gamecocks have won each of their last four bowl games, which is the second-longest active winning streak in the country. The Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. SEC opponents. The Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Take South Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa +14.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes come into the Big Ten season undervalued.  They started the season so ugly that they were going to be undervalued heading into conference action.  And they still are despite turning their season around and playing their best basketball of the season right now.

Indeed, the Hawkeyes are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  That includes a 14-point win over Iowa State as 6-point home dogs and a 23-point win over Northern Iowa as 2.5-point dogs on a neutral.  Now the Hawkeyes are catching 13.5 points against Purdue, which is simply too much.

The Boilermakers are a quality team and one of the best in the conference, but they have struggled against Iowa.  In fact, the Hawkeyes won both meetings last season, winning 83-71 as 2.5-point home favorites and 70-63 as 9-point road dogs.  Iowa has won four of the last five meetings in this series overall.  Bet Iowa Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -5

We'll gladly fade the Los Angeles Clippers, who are short-handed right now playing without their two best players in Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, and even J.J. Redick is doubtful with a hamstring injury.  The results haven't been good for the Clippers without these guys.

They have now lost three in a row to some very bad teams.  They lost 88-90 at home to the Mavericks, 102-111 on the road to the Lakers and 102-106 at home to the Nuggets.  Now this will really be their first true road game without them because they played the Lakers inside Staples obviously.

The Pelicans are certainly a 'play on' team moving forward.  They have won three of their last four coming in, and it's no coincidence as it has come during the point in which the Pelicans have been at their healthiest all year.  They have their three-headed monster of Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans together for the first time all year.  They are clicking on offense, scoring at least 100 points in eight of their last nine contests.

The Clippers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days' rest.  Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.  The Pelicans are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Clippers are 4-13 ATS in the last 17 meetings in New Orleans.  Take the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -3

We are getting the Detroit Pistons at a cheap price Wednesday because they have lost five of their last six coming in. It was five straight before a 106-90 home win over Cleveland on Monday.  The Pistons are now 9-7 SU & 10-6 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 5.4 points per game.

Milwaukee is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this one.  The Bucks have struggled on the road all season, going 4-8 SU & 4-8 ATS in 12 games away from home.

The Pistons have owned the Bucks lately, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  And the home team has dominated this series of late as well, going 9-2 straight up in the last 11 meetings.

Detroit is 27-13 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games after having lost four of their last five games coming in.  The Bucks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* WVU/Miami Russell Athletic Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Miami -3

I think the Hurricanes are the happier team to be here. The Mountaineers had a chance to win the Big 12 down the stretch and lost out on a better bowl when they lost to Oklahoma. They proceeded to beat Iowa State and Baylor, but they didn’t play well in either of those games.

They only outgained Iowa State by 52 yards and they were outgained by Baylor by 18 yards in a narrow 24-21 win as 17-point favorites. I think the Mountaineers continue sleep-walking into their bowl game. They already have their 10 wins, so their season is a success no matter what happens in this game.  And their 10-2 record is skewed because they only beat two teams with winning records, BYU and Kansas State, by a combined four points.

Miami clearly wants to be here and will have a pep in its step in its first set of bowl practices under head coach Mark Richt. The Hurricanes won their final four games to close out the season in blowout fashion, going 4-0 ATS in the process. They beat Pitt by 23 at home, Virginia by 20 on the road, NC State by 14 on the road and Duke by 19 at home. They outgained their last four opponents by a combined 537 yards in the process. They clearly come in playing their best football of the season.

Adding to Miami’s motivation is the fact that it hasn’t won a bowl game in a decade, losing six straight with its last win coming in 2006. The Hurricanes will also be looking to build momentum for the future as they look to regain their past glory under Richt, a former Hurricanes quarterback.

Statistically, these teams are pretty even on both sides of the ball, so I think it does come down to motivation. It also helps that Miami will have a home-field edge with this game being played in Orlando. Also, the Hurricanes have a big edge on special teams.

Miami kicker Michael Badgley went 10-of-11 on field goals of 40 or more yards this season. WVU kicker Mike Molina made only 2-of-5 from 40 yards or more. Miami punter Justin Vogel averaged 44.2 yards on 57 punts with 23 punts inside the 20 and only one touchback. WVU punter Billy Kinney averaged 41.4 yards on 51 punts with 14 inside the 20 and five touchbacks.

West Virginia is 6-15 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last three seasons. The Mountaineers are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games on a neutral field. West Virginia is 10-22 ATS in its last 32 vs. ACC opponents. Miami is 7-0 ATS off a win by 17 points or more over the last two seasons. The Hurricanes are 8-2 ATS as a favorite this season. West Virginia is 1-6 ATS in its last seven bowl games.  Take Miami in the Russell Athletic Bowl Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wake Forest +8.5

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Danny Manning has his players in place in his third season on the job, and the Demon Deacons have rewarded him with a 9-3 start to the season.

The three losses were all understandable as they lost on a neutral to No. 1 Villanova, on the road to Northwestern (by 7) and on the road to Xavier (by 4).  Following that loss to Xavier, I backed them in a blowout 110-76 home victory over LSU as 10-point favorites.  I'll back them again here as 8.5-point road dogs as they are battle-tested and ready to give Florida State a run for its money in the ACC opener.

I think the Seminoles come into this game overvalued due to their 12-1 start this season.  But their schedule hasn't been nearly as tough as that of Wake Forest.  They haven't played a true road game yet, and their four neutral court games have come against Temple (lost by 3), Illinois, George Washington and Manhattan.  Heck, they only beat Samford 76-68 as 22-point home favorites last time out, and I was on Samford in that game.

Wake Forest is 15-6 ATS when playing on its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  Florida State is 15-36 ATS in its last 51 games after having won eight or more of its last 10 games.  The Demon Deacons are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with Wake Forest Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Heat +3

The Miami Heat are showing great value as home underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder here tonight.  They come in undervalued after losing four of their last five games, but all four losses came by 10 points or fewer so they were competitive in all of them.  And the Heat have quietly gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.

The Heat have had some extra time off here over Christmas.  They haven't played since December 23rd, so they will be giving their best effort after having the past three days off.  The Thunder played on Christmas Day in a home win over Minnesota and don't have that same luxury.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series recently as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Thunder haven't exactly been world beaters on the road this season, going 6-7 ATS while giving up 108.4 points per game away from home.

Oklahoma City is 16-29 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games after having won four of their last five games coming in.  The Heat are 19-8 ATS in home games with a total set of 200 or more over the last two seasons.

Plays on home underdogs (MIAMI) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 113-66 (63.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after three or more consecutive overs, an excellent offensive team (102-plus PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Heat Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Maryland -3

This is a very generous price to get the Maryland Terrapins tonight in their Big Ten opener.  The Terrapins are off to a 12-1 start this season, and while they're down a notch from last season, they still have loads of talent.  And they continue to be overlooked by oddsmakers.

The Illinois Fighting Illini are improved at 10-3 on the season.  They have won six straight coming in and are getting too much respect for it.  When they took a step up in class against WVU (lost by 32) and Florida State (lost by 11), they didn't fare well.  And they also lost at home to Winthrop earlier this season.

But the biggest reason I like Maryland here is because Illinois hasn't played a true road game all season.  That's right, it's December 27th and they haven't tasted what a hostile road atmosphere feels like.  I think they'll be in over their heads here against the Terrapins, who beat Illinois 81-55 at home last season.

Illinois is 10-22 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Illini are 1-9 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams who make 72% of their attempts or better over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Illini are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.  The Terrapins are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.  Roll with Maryland Tuesday.

20* Temple/Wake Forest Military Bowl No-Brainer on Wake Forest +12

There are a ton of factors working in Wake Forest's favor coming into this bowl game.  I think there's a ton of value in backing them as 12-point underdogs here in the Military Bowl.  In fact, it's probably one of my favorite plays of the bowl season.

For starters, the Demon Deacons are going to be extremely excited to be here.  They haven't been to a bowl game since 2011.  When they clinched their bowl berth in a win over Virginia in their ninth game of the season, they didn't exactly play well down the stretch in losing their final three games of the season.  But I think that also has them undervalued as they come in on a 3-game losing streak.

When you look at the teams they faced down the stretch, it's easy to see why they lost three straight.  They lost 12-44 against Louisville, but covered as 34-point dogs.  And that game was way closer than the final score as the Demon Deacons actually led in the 4th quarter before getting outscored 34-0 in a fluky final period.

The Demon Deacons also lost 13-35 at home to Clemson, covering as 23.5-point dogs though.  And they lost 14-17 at home to Boston College in the season finale.  But the Eagles had more to play for in that game as they were looking for their 6th win and bowl eligibility.  But the Demon Deacons should have won that game as they outgained the Eagles by 120 yards and held them to just 167 yards of total offense.

Temple does not want to be here.  Their reward for winning the AAC Championship over Navy? How about a repeat trip to Annapolis, Maryland to face a 6-6 Wake Forest team.  That's right, the AAC title game was also played in Annapolis.  This isn't exactly the most exciting city for a college kid to visit, especially for a second time in as many games.

The Owls also lost their head coach in Matt Rhule to Baylor.  We saw how that worked out for Houston already this bowl season after losing Tom Herman.  The interim coach is Ed Foley, who is the special teams and tight ends coach.  The Owls will be moving on to Geoff Collins next season, who was the defensive coordinator at Florida this season.  This is a huge distraction for these players, especially the non-seniors who will be coming back next year.  Rhule was certainly beloved with what he was able to do with this program.

Another reason I like fading Temple here is because the betting public has been all over them, and they've been rewarded.  In fact, the Owls have the best ATS record in the nation at 12-1.  They have covered in 12 straight games since a loss to Army in the opener.  The oddsmakers have over-adjusted for that, knowing that the public is going to continue riding Temple in this game.

Points are going to be at a premium in this game.  That's evident with a total set of 40.5 points.  That favors the underdog as both of these teams have great defenses.  Wake Forest will be able to hang around in this game behind a defense that gives up just 21.8 points and 370 yards per game this season against a much tougher slate than what Temple was up against.

The Demon Deacons have some standouts on defense in junior DL Duke Ejiofor, senior LB Marquel Lee and freshman S Jessie Bates.  Eliofor and Lee combined for 34 tackles for loss and 17.5 sacks this season.  Bates finished second on the team in tackles to Lee.  He led all FBS freshmen in interceptions, interception returns yards and INT return touchdowns and was named to the Freshman All-American Team.

Wake Forest is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 road games when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  The Demon Deacons are 9-2 ATS after playing a home game over the last two seasons.  Wake Forest is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  With all of the motivational edges in this game favoring the Demon Deacons, this is a contest that they could win outright.  Bet Wake Forest in the Military Bowl.

15* NBA Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver Nuggets -1

The Denver Nuggets want revenge from a 102-119 loss at Los Angeles just six days ago on December 20th.  They were in a tough spot that day as they were playing the second of a back-to-back.  They proceeded to blow an 8-point lead in the final two minutes against the Hawks their next time out, so it's safe to say they will be highly motivated here.

This time around, it's the Clippers in the tough spot.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days here.  They have lost to the Mavericks 88-90 and the Lakers 102-111 in their last two games, and a big reason for that is all the injuries they are dealing with right now.

Chris Paul is expected to miss this game after sitting out against the Lakers.  Blake Griffin remains out, and J.J. Redick just suffered a hamstring injury against the Lakers and is doubtful.  The short-handed, tired Clippers have no chance of hanging with the motivated, well-rested Nuggets who will be playing on two days' rest tonight.  Take the Nuggets Monday.

25* Lions/Cowboys MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on OVER 44.5

I think the best bet on this game is the OVER, and I'm clearly not the only one as this total has been bet up from 41.5 to 44.5 already.  But I still don't think it's enough.  These teams will be playing in perfect conditions inside AT&T Stadium, so scoring will be plentiful.  And I think these are two of the most overrated defenses in the NFL.

The only reason the Cowboys have decent defensive numbers is because they have controlled the time of possession with their dominant offense.  But the Cowboys give up 5.6 yards per play this season, which is 19th in the NFL.  The Lions give up 5.8 yards per play, which is 25th in the NFL.  These aren't good defenses.

The Lions don't have a good running game, but Stafford will be primed for a huge day against a Cowboys defense that gives up 68.4 percent completions, 265 passing yards per game and 6.8 yards per attempt this season.  The Cowboys ranks 2nd in rushing offense at 154.5 yards per game, and they should have a huge day on the ground against a Lions defense that gives up 4.2 yards per carry, which ranks tied for 16th in the NFL.

The Lions have been padding their stats defensively against some awful quarterbacks.  In their last 11 games, they have faced Brian Hoyer, Carson Wentz, Case Keenum, Kirk Cousins, Brock Osweiler, Sam Bradford (twice), Blake Bortles, Drew Brees, Matt Barkley and Eli Manning.  Only two of those guys are having good seasons in Cousins and Brees.  The Lions haven't seen an offense as potent as the Cowboys, which averages 26.1 points per game overall, including 27.3 points per game at home.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series.  We've seen 44 or more combined points in all six meetings.  The Cowboys and Lions are averaging 58.0 combined points in those six contests, which is nearly 14 points more than this posted total.  A big reason for that is because both of these teams play in domes, so the conditions are always perfect.

Dallas is 46-19 OVER in its last 65 home games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better.   I think we're getting a ton of value here on the OVER because the Lions have gone under the total in eight straight, while the Cowboys have gone under in three straight coming in.  The oddsmakers have over-adjusted for it. We'll see a shootout here Monday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +13

The Phoenix Suns just played the Houston Rockets five days ago on December 21st in a 111-125 home loss.  The Rockets shot 18-of-38 from 3-point range and aren't likely to hit at that kind of clip again.  I look for the Suns to be out for revenge in this rematch just five days later.

And the Suns were 6-point home dogs in the first meeting, and now they're 13-point dogs in the rematch in Houston. That is a ton of extra value because the Suns actually tend to play better on the road because they have a very small home-court advantage.  And they are definitely better ATS on the road because they are consistently catching big numbers.

Plays against home favorites (HOUSTON) - after allowing 100 points or more four straight games against opponent after three straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games playing on 2 days rest.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is a perfect 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Suns won 124-115 as 12.5-point dogs and 117-102 as 7.5-point dogs in their last two trips to Houston.  Phoenix is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 trips to Houston dating back further.  Bet the Suns Monday.

20* NC State/Vanderbilt Independence Bowl No-Brainer on Vanderbilt +4.5

I really like the way that Vanderbilt finished the season as it put everything it had into becoming bowl eligible. That was a huge win over Tennessee for Derek Mason in his third season here, and the trip to a bowl game likely saved his job. These players will be ecstatic to be playing in a bowl game after missing out each of the past two years, so you know you’re going to get a big effort from them.

The Commodores certainly saved their best football for last. They won their final two games by beating Ole Miss 38-17 as 10-point home dogs and Tennessee 45-34 as 7.5-point home dogs. Wins over programs of that caliber are no small feat, and Vanderbilt also beat the likes of Western Kentucky and Georgia earlier this season, while also playing Auburn to a 7-point game on the road. They only lost by double-digits once this season, so they were competitive in basically every game.

While Vanderbilt beat four teams with winning records this season, NC State only beat two such teams. One was against Old Dominion, and the other was against a deflated UNC team in the season finale that had no shot at going to the ACC title game after losing the previous week. The Wolfpack simply took advantage of that spot and beat their rivals when they were the more motivated team because they needed the win to get to a bowl.

Let’s talk a little more about how well Vanderbilt played down the stretch. It scored a combined 83 points over the final two games as junior running back Ralph Webb piled up 237 yards and five touchdowns on 41 carries. Quarterback Kyle Shurmur threw for a career-high 416 yards in the win over Tennessee, and totaled four touchdown passes in his finale two games.

So not only is Vanderbilt’s offense hitting its stride, but the defense was one of the better units in the stacked SEC. The Commodores only allowed 22.6 points per game this season, holding opponents to 8.4 points per game less than their season averages. This defense should be able to limit NC State’s offense, which averaged a mediocre 25.8 points per game during the regular season and was inconsistent all year.

NC State is 10-25 ATS in its last 35 games off a road win over a conference opponent. Derek Mason is 12-4 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better as the coach of Vanderbilt. Dave Doeren is 5-15 ATS vs. teams who allow 58% completions or more as the coach of NC State. The Wolfpack are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. SEC opponents.  The SEC supremacy reigns true in this game, too.  Bet Vanderbilt in the Independence Bowl.

15* Miami/Miss State St. Petersburg Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Mississippi State -13

I certainly want to give Miami Ohio credit for making a bowl game after the 0-6 start. The Redhawks clearly wanted to make a bowl, and they will be excited to be here. However, I just don’t see any way they can be competitive against Mississippi State, which I would argue is probably the best team that they will have played all season.

Certainly you could argue that Iowa was the best team that they played, but I would say it’s pretty close. And Miami lost to Iowa 21-45. I think we will see a similar margin in this game against a Bulldogs team that really got better as the season progressed.

It’s worth noting that Miami Ohio only beat two bowl teams this season, and that was Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan, two mediocre teams in the MAC. The talent difference in this game is massive as the Bulldogs will have better athletes on the field at almost every position.

Mississippi State beat two really good teams down the stretch. They won 35-28 over Texas A&M as 10-point underdogs, and then saved their best performance for last in a 55-20 win at Ole Miss as 10-point dogs. The Bulldogs racked up 566 total yards on the Rebels, including 457 rushing.

The Bulldogs really picked it up offensively in the second half of the season, averaging more than 45 points in the five games that weren’t against No. 1 Alabama. Freshman sensation Nick Fitzgerald led the SEC in total offense with 3,530 yards, 1,243 on the ground, while accounting for 35 total touchdowns (21 passing, 14 rushing).

Fitzgerald rushed for at least 100 yards in five of six second-half contests, including 258 against Ole Miss. He is bigger than basically every linebacker at Miami Ohio and will be tough to tackle.  Fitzgerald has two elite targets on the outside to get the ball to. Senior Fred Ross caught 68 balls for 873 yards and 12 touchdowns, while junior Donald Gray had 39 receptions for 691 yards and five scores.

Plays against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MIAMI OHIO) – off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 29-4 (87.9%) ATS since 1992.

Dan Mullen is 13-4 ATS in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of Mississippi State. After playing in the rugged SEC West this season, the Bulldogs will welcome this cupcake opponent and make easy work of them in the St. Petersburg Bowl.   This is going to be a physical mismatch in favor of the Bulldogs, and that will be reflected on the scoreboard.  Take Mississippi State in the St. Petersburg Bowl.

15* Broncos/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Denver +3

The Chiefs are one of the most fraudulent teams in the NFL. They have the raw numbers of a team that should be 4-10 instead of 10-4. They rank 29th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 43.7 yards per game. Only the Rams, Browns and 49ers have been worse than them in this category, so they are in some pretty terrible company.

The Chiefs have been outgained in six of their last seven games overall. They have been outgained by a total of 619 yards in their last seven games. One of those was their fluke 30-27 (OT) win at Denver. They were outgianed by 191 yards by the Broncos in that contest. Their offense averaged just 3.3 yards per play while the Broncos averaged 6.7 yards per play in that contest. There’s no way the Chiefs should have won that game.

Now the Broncos are going to be out for revenge here in the rematch less than a month later. They are playing for their season right now as they have to win out to have a chance to make the playoffs. They will be the more motivated team as a result, and there’s no question they are the better team in my mind when you look at the numbers.

While the Chiefs have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, the Broncos have arguably the best defense. They rank 2nd in total defense at 310.9 yards per game and 1st in passing defense at 183.0 yards per game. They are also 4th in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game allowed. The Chiefs certainly don’t have the playmakers to scare them here.

The Chiefs have no home-field advantage. They are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. That includes recent upset losses to the Bucs as 7-point home favorites and the Titans as 6-point home favorites. And home-field has meant nothing in this series, either. The road team is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. The Broncos are 6-1 ATS int heir last seven trips to Kansas City.

Denver is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 games when revenging a close loss against an opponent by 3 points or less. It is coming back to win 27.4 to 21.7 on average in this spot. The Broncos are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss. The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  Take the Broncos Sunday.

20* Ravens/Steelers Christmas Day No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -5.5

I’ve been riding the Steelers with a ton of success in recent weeks and I’m going to continue to do so this week. Once again I believe they are being under-priced here by oddsmakers as only 5.5-point home favorites. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, and I have backed them in all five games.

The Steelers may be the best team in the NFL. They have outgained eight straight opponents, which is the sign of a dominant team. They have outgained their last five opponents during their winning streak by a combined 663 yards, which is an average of 132.6 yards per game. No team has been better than them during this stretch.

I think the fact that the game against the Bengals last week was close is providing some line value here. But that game wasn’t nearly as close as the final of 24-20 showed. The Steelers outgained the Bengals by 160 yards and should have won by more, but they were held to six field goals to start the game before finally getting into the end zone. It’s unlike them to struggle in the red zone like that, and I don’t expect it to happen again this week.

Mike Tomlin is 57-21 all-time at Heinz Field, and Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 27 touchdowns and only six interceptions in his last eight home games. The Steelers are 4-2 at home this season, winning by 8.2 points per game. One of their losses came against the Patriots without Roethlisberger, and the other came against the Cowboys in a fluky result that was lost when they went 0-for-4 on 2-point conversions.

Everyone knows that the Steelers have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, but what is getting overlooked is how good this defense is playing. The Steelers are only allowing 14.0 points per game in their last five contests. They are also giving up just 250.0 total yards per game in their last five. They haven’t allowed more than 91 rushing yards in any of those five games, and they have held opponents to 219 passing yards or fewer in all five as well. This defense is playing as well as any in the NFL.

The Ravens are just 2-4 SU & 1-4-1 ATS on the road this season. Their offense is scoring just 18.8 points per game and averaging 313 yards per game on the road. They have lost each of their last four road games with a 4-point loss to the Giants, an 8-point loss to the Jets, a 10-point loss to the Cowboys and a 7-point loss to the Patriots. So, they’ve struggled to even stay within a touchdown of teams on the road.

Pittsburgh wants revenge badly from losing four straight meetings with the Ravens. But that is skewed a bit because of injuries to the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger was a game-time decision in their 14-21 loss to the Ravens earlier this season. He was rusty, and the Ravens scored on a punt block TD and a 95-yard TD. It was the definition of a fluky result.

In another loss Michael Vick was their starting quarterback, and in another loss they had to pick up a running back off the streets on game week. The key for me is that the Steelers are a much different team now than when they played back on November 6th. They are hitting on all cylinders and playing their best football of the season. They are also as healthy as they have been all year.

The Ravens are dealing with some key injuries right now, including one to cornerback Jimmy Smith. He missed last week’s game against the Eagles and it’s unlikely he returns this week. He is their top cover corner, and it’s not even close. He has had success in the past against Antonio Brown, too, and if he doesn’t play it would be a massive loss for the Ravens.

The Steelers thrive this time of year, going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 December games, including 9-1 ATS in their last 10. The Ravens are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 December games. Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games. The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

But my favorite trend of all is that the Steelers are a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games when they are playing with same-season division revenge.  They have bounced back to cover the spread each of the last 11 times they have lost to an AFC North opponent in their first meeting of the season.  That's the sign of a resilient team, and I expect a huge effort from Pittsburgh here Sunday with the AFC North title at stake.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

20* Cavs/Warriors NBA Finals Rematch on Golden State -2.5

The Golden State Warriors have had this game circled on their calendars every since they blew a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals to the Cavaliers.  They are going to want this game more, and I expect one of their best performances of the season because of it.

The difference in the rematch is now they have Kevin Durant, who has made the Warriors that much more dangerous.  They are off to a 27-4 start to the season and have been playing tremendous of late, winning seven straight, including four straight on the road.

I think the Cavaliers come in overvalued due to four straight victories themselves.  However, those four have come against the likes of the Lakers, Nets and Bucks (twice).  The Cavs will be without JR Smith for this one, and they'll certainly miss his shooting against the Warriors here.

Golden State is 10-1 ATS in road games off a win by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Cavaliers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven Sunday games.  Bet the Warriors Sunday.

15* Celtics/Knicks ESPN Early Riser on UNDER 211.5

I think both the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks will be sleep-walking through the first part of this game Sunday that's set for a 12:00 EST tip.  Both offenses will struggle in the first half, which will help keep this total UNDER the posted number of 211.5.

Recent head-to-head history suggests that this number has been inflated.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 209 or fewer in five of those contests.  They have averaged 201.7 combined points per game in their last six meetings, which is roughly 10 points less than this 211.5-point total.

Boston is 14-4 UNDER off a home loss over the last two seasons.  New York is 13-4 UNDER in Sunday games over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Celtics last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 25-9 in Celtics last 34 games playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Knicks last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 29-14 in Knicks last 43 games playing on two days' rest.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Bengals/Texans AFC Saturday Night BAILOUT on Houston +1

The Texans have plenty of motivation right now. If they win out they will win the division, and they even have a shot at a wild card if they don’t win out. But either way they should be focused despite the fact that they could lose this game and beat the Titans next week and win the division as well.

Houston beat Indianapolis 22-17 on the road two weeks ago, and showed a lot of heart in fighting back from a 13-0 deficit to beat the Jaguars last week. Brock Osweiler single-handedly dug them that 13-0 deficit with two interceptions in his own territory. Then he was replaced by Tom Savage, and the crowd erupted in cheers.

Savage fed off of the momentum and led the Texans back to a 21-20 victory. He finished 23 of 36 for 260 yards without an interception. And this game wasn’t nearly as close as the final score showed. The Texans outgained the Jaguars by 237 yards and held them to just 150 yards of total offense.

Now Savage is going to start again this week, and I think he can only be an upgrade over Osweiler, who the Texans have been winning in spite of. And the Texans are 6-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to the Chargers a few weeks back, who were coming off their bye week, while the Texans were in a bad spot coming off a Monday Night Football game in Mexico City.

I really question Cincinnati’s motivation this week. The Bengals have already been eliminated from the playoffs with their heartbreaking loss to the Steelers last week. They led that game 20-6, but they were shut out in the second half and lost 20-24. Off such an emotional loss to their biggest rivals, and with the Ravens on deck, I don’t expect the Bengals to show up at all this week.  And they were outgained by 160 yards by the Steelers last week, so it wasn't as close as the final score.

The Bengals have some injury issues right now in which they could be extra cautious with given their standing. Tight end Tyler Eifert is out with a back injury, while LB Vontaze Burfict is out with a concussion.  WR AJ Green and RB Jeremy Hill are probable, but nowhere near 100%.  Don't be surprised if the Bengals are cautious with these two given they have nothing to play for.

The reason the Texans have been able to overcome their offensive woes this season for an 8-6 record is because of their defense, which now ranks 1st in the NFL in allowing just 306.5 yards per game. Most people don’t give this defense the credit it deserves because JJ Watt is out, but they really haven’t missed a beat. And as long as Tom Savage takes care of the ball better than Osweiler did before him, they will be just fine.

Cincinnati is 1-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Bengals are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games. The Texans are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.  Bet the Texans Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver Nuggets -3.5

The Atlanta Hawks and Denver Nuggets are two teams headed in opposite directions.  The Hawks are just 5-13 SU & 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They just cannot seem to get on track, and they are getting way too much respect here as only 3.5-point road dogs.  They are playing without their center in Dwight Howard on Friday, too.

The Nuggets have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  All three wins came at home by double-digits, while the lone loss came on the road at the Los Angeles Clippers on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  That was a tough spot and an understandable loss.

But the reason the Nuggets are playing so much better now is because they are as healthy as they've been all season.  There is no team with more depth than this Nuggets squad.  Gary Harris recently returned to the lineup and has provided a huge spark, averaging 12.8 points on 51.8% shooting, including 46.2% from 3-point range in just nine games this year.  The Nuggets have a ridiculous 10 players averaging at least 9.0 points per game, so they don't miss a beat when their bench comes in.

Home-court advantage has been huge between these teams.  The home team is 8-1 straight up in the last nine meetings.  Denver is 17-3 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in five straight games over the last three seasons.  The Hawks are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 1 days' rest.  Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Nuggets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +3.5

The Houston Rockets are way overvalued right now due to going 11-1 in their last 12 games overall.  Now they're being asked to lay 3.5 points on the road to one of the most underrated teams in the NBA in the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

The Rockets just lost their starting center in Clint Capela two games ago with a broken fibula.  He averages 11.8 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game.  They really missed him in a loss to the Spurs the other night, but they didn't miss him against the Suns, who are guard-oriented.

Capela's absence will really be in issue against the Grizzlies, who play their 'grit and grind', inside-out style.  Marc Gasol averages 20.1 points per game this season and will have a huge game in the paint.  The same can be said for Zach Randolph.

And the Grizzlies are now as healthy as they've been all season with the recent returns of Mike Conley, James Ennis, Vince Carter and Chandler Parsons.  They had all of these guys available against the Pistons on Wednesday, and they won 98-86 as 6-point road dogs despite playing the second of a back-to-back off an OT game.  It was a gutsy effort to say the least, and they will want to put the Rockets in their place tonight.

The Rockets rely more on the 3-pointer than any team in the NBA.  But the Grizzlies defend the 3-pointer better than most.  They allow an average of 9 made 3-pointers on 27 attempts per game at a 33.5% clip.  The Grizzlies only give up 93.9 points per game at home this year.  They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.4 points per 100 possessions.

Memphis is 32-12 ATS in its last 44 home games off a road win by 10 points or more.  The Rockets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 trips to Memphis.  The Grizzlies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Roll with the Grizzlies Friday.