15* Celtics/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Boston +6 

The Boston Celtics are 11-2 this season and still getting no respect from oddsmakers tonight as 6-point road underdogs to the Los Angeles Clippers.  It’s a Celtics team that has found their stride with Kemba Walker running the show and they look like one of the best teams in the NBA currently. 

The Clippers could be without Kawhi Leonard again tonight as he has missed two consecutive games with a left knee contusion.  They were barely able to escape with a 90-88 home victory over the Thunder as 7.5-point home favorites on Monday without him.  And they certainly won’t be able to put away the Celtics by margin with or without him tonight. 

Plays against home favorites (LA Clippers) - in non-conference games, off a home non-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 74-36 (67.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Boston is 14-2 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Celtics Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland +6.5 

I like the Portland Pilots catching points in this in-state rivalry with Portland State.  The Pilots clearly came into this season undervalued after going 7-25 last year and 0-16 in WCC play.  I think they’ll continue to be a money maker moving forward. 

Indeed, Portland is off to a 3-1 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season.  After beating Williamette by 50 in their opener, they gave USC a battle in a 65-76 road loss as 23-point dogs.  Then they upset San Jose State 72-57 as 3-point road dogs before covering against Maine in a 71-62 victory as 7.5-point home favorites.  They have covered the spread by a combined 31.5 points in their three lined games. 

Portland State is picked to finish near the bottom of the Big Sky this year and deservedly so.  They lost three starters and only brought back two players who averaged more than 4.3 points per game from last season.  They are 1-2 this season with their only win coming at home over Puget Sound by a final of 94-69.  They lost at Indiana and Hawaii and are coming off a trip to the Island. 

Portland State is 10-23 ATS in its last 33 vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game.  The Vikings are 0-9 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  The Pilots are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Pilots are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings at Portland State.  Roll with Portland Wednesday. 

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on UNLV -4 

The UNLV Rebels made a great hire in the offseason by nabbing T.J. Otzelberger from South Dakota State.  He went 70-33 in his three seasons there while guiding the Jack Rabbits to two NCAA Tournaments and an NIT.  While several players transferred or graduated, Otzelberger was able to keep two starters in Amauri Hardy (13.1 PPG, 3.5 APG last year) and Cheikh Mbacke Diong (6.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 40 blocks). 

The Rebels have won and covered their two home games against IUPU-Fort Wayne and Abilene Christian.  And they are certainly battle-tested in the early going with losses to Kansas State (by 4), Cal (by 4) and UCLA (by 17).  This tough early schedule will have the Rebels undervalued moving forward after a 2-3 start.  Hardy (19.0 PPG) is carrying the team, while transfers Elijah Mitrou-Long (12.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG) from Texas and Donnie Tillman (12.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG) from Utah have both proven to be huge gets for Otzelberger. 

Texas State also returns just two starters from last year and comes in overvalued after a 24-10 season.  The Bobcats are 3-2 with their three wins all coming at home against cupcakes in Texas Lutheran, Prairie View A&M and Jackson State.  They lost their two road games to Air Force and Baylor.  And now they will be playing their 2nd game in 3 days after beating Jackson State at home on Monday while having to travel to UNLV.  The Bobcats won’t be prepared for this game at all. 

Danny Kaspar is 10-20 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less or PK as the coach of Texas State.  The Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Otzelberger is 23-10 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game in all games as a head coach.  Bet UNLV Wednesday. 

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Nuggets -1 

The Houston Rockets are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Their run comes to an end tonight against a Denver Nuggets team that will be up to the challenge. 

The Rockets have been fasting on a pretty weak schedule as their eight wins have come against the Grizzlies, Warriors, Bulls, Pelicans, Clippers, Pacers, Timberwolves and Blazers.  This will be their toughest challenge in quite some time against a Nuggets team that has won six of their last seven overall coming in as well. 

The Nuggets had the best home record in the NBA last season, and the Pepsi Center is never an easy place to play thanks to the altitude.  Now we get a fresh Nuggets team playing just their 2nd game in 6 days, while the Rockets will be playing their 4th game in 6 days. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Nuggets are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Nuggets Wednesday. 

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron +32 

The Akron Zips are 0-10 SU & 0-10 ATS this season.  The chances of them going 0-12 ATS for the entire season are slim to none.  Oddsmakers are going to adjust knowing that the betting public wants to keep fading them because they haven’t covered yet.  And I think they’ve adjusted too much tonight. 

The Zips just recently got starting QB Kato Nelson back from injury.  He threw for 288 yards and two touchdowns against Eastern Michigan last week while averaging 8.7 yards per attempt.  That’s the same Eastern Michigan team that just rolled Northern Illinois 45-17 on the road last night. 

I just don’t think Miami Ohio is going to be motivated enough to put away Akron by 31-plus points tonight.  Miami Ohio already clinched the MAC East last week with their win over Bowling Green.  They have the tiebreaker on their closest pursuers with head-to-head wins, and I think they will be flat tonight as a result.  They would need to be fully invested to cover this big of a number as they only have one win all season that would cover 32 points. 

Plays against favorites of 31.5 or more points (Miami Ohio) - off a home win, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Zips are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Miami Ohio.  Take Akron Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 

The Golden State Warriors might just be the worst team in the NBA now.  They are 2-12 this season and are without their top three scorers in Steph Curry, D’Angelo Russell and Klay Thompson.  There’s just not a lot to like about this team moving forward. 

The Memphis Grizzlies are starting to gel as a team.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with upset road wins over the Spurs as 10.5-point dogs and Hornets as 2.5-point dogs, as well as an upset home win over the Jazz as 8-point dogs. 

The Grizzlies have scored 115.1 points per game on 47.7% shooting at home this season.  They’ll be up against a Warriors team that gives up 119.0 points per game and 48% shooting overall, including 119.9 points per game and 48.8% shooting on the road.  Golden State is 1-6 on the highway and getting outscored by 11.5 points per game. 

The Warriors are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Golden State is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with the Grizzlies Tuesday. 

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois -5 

The Northern Illinois Huskies kept their bowl hopes alive last week with a huge 31-28 road win at Toledo to improve to 4-6 on the season.  Now they have two home games to finish the season and have a legit chance of making a bowl.  They need to handle their business here against Eastern Michigan to do so. 

Eastern Michigan is 5-5 this season with a home game on deck next week against Kent State that they will be heavily favored in.  They know they can afford to lose this game and still make a bowl.  Sure, they want to beat Northern Illinois, but it’s not as urgent to win this game as it is for the Huskies. 

I simply believe NIU is the better team despite having the worse record.  The Huskies have played a brutal schedule this season with seven road games compared to three home games.  And those seven road games featured non-conference games at Utah, Nebraska and Vanderbilt, as well as trips to four of the best teams in the MAC in Ohio, Miami, Central Michigan and Toledo.  The Huskies are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS at home this season outscoring opponents by 18.7 points per game and holding foes to 12.3 points and 217.3 yards per game. 

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams.  These teams have faced the same four opponents.  Eastern Michigan is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS against them, getting outscored by 1.7 points per game and outgained by 68.7 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play.  Northern Illinois is 2-2 SU & 2-2 ATS against those four teams, outscoring them by 1.7 points per game and only getting outgained by 27.3 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play. 

I like the matchup for NIU on both sides of the ball.  Their weakness this season has been stopping the run, but EMU only averages 118 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  NIU is great against the pass, giving up just 208 passing yards per game, and they’ll be able to slow down an EMU offense averaging 273 passing yards per game.  NIU has topped 200 rushing yards in two of its last three games coming in and should be able to run the ball at will on an EMU defense that allows 194 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry.  The Eagles have also been terrible against the pass, giving up 63.4% completions and 8.3 yards per attempt. 

Northern Illinois is 11-0 SU & 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 meetings with Eastern Michigan.  The Huskies are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games off an upset win as an underdog over a conference opponent.  The Eagles are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games off a win by more than 20 points.  Eastern Michigan is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Bet Northern Illinois Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida International -7 

Jeremy Ballard turned around the FIU program in his first season last year.  He guided the Panthers to their first 20-win season since the program joined Division 1, and only their second winning record since 2001.  The former VCU assistant won’t be at FIU for long. 

Ballard implemented an up-tempo offense that averaged 77 possessions, which was more than any other team in the nation with the average offensive trip lasting 14.1 seconds, also the fastest in the land.  Their full-court pressure forced turnovers on 23.4 percent (7th) of opponent’s possessions, and they converted those into 23 points per game in transition (4th). 

The Panthers returned four starters this season in Devon Andrews (15.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG), Osasumwen Osaghae (8.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.1 BPG), Trefjon Jacob (10.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG) and Antonio Daye Jr. (8.3 PPG).  I think we are getting this team cheap tonight because they are just 1-2, but they covered the spread in both of their road losses to Mississippi State (69-77) as 16.5-point dogs and NC State (77-86) as 17.5-point dogs. 

Cleveland State is picked to finish last in the Horizon this season, and I fully agree with it.  The Vikings went 10-21 last season and brought in a new head coach in Dennis Gates.  They lost all five starters from last year and only brought back one key reserve.  The Vikings are 1-3 this season with a 35-point loss to Minnesota, a 20-point loss to Missouri State and a 27-point loss to South Carolina.  They are clearly a team in rebuilding mode.  Take Florida International Tuesday. 

25* MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas City Chiefs -4 

The Kansas City Chiefs just got Patrick Mahomes back from injury last week.  He played as good as he could have and the Chiefs deserved to win, but special teams mistakes cost them in a 32-35 road loss to the Titans.  It’s a Titans team that just simply has their number and has beaten some very good teams at home the last few seasons. 

The Chiefs had 530 total yards on the Titans and obviously should have won in a very misleading loss.  They outgained the Titans by 159 yards.  Mahomes went 36-of-50 passing for 446 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.  He has his full compliment of weapons now and the Chiefs will be tough to tame the rest of the way.  The Chiefs are averaging 28.4 points and 404.4 yards per game this season, and that includes 2.5 games where they were missing Mahomes.  I expect them to get 30-plus Monday. 

Philip Rivers just hasn’t looked right all season.  He is finally starting to show his age as his arm strength is awful.  He went 17-of-31 passing for 207 yards with 3 interceptions against the Raiders last week and it would have been 5 INT's if not for two that were called back by penalties.  The Chargers are scoring just 20.7 points per game this season.  While the Chargers have a solid defense, their offense is holding them back, and I don’t think they can match the Chiefs score for score in this one. 

I like the fact that the Chiefs are coming off a loss, which makes them even more motivated this week.  The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games off a loss.  Kansas City is 4-0 ATS in its last four games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game.  The Chiefs are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 vs. AFC West opponents.  Kansas City is 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with the Chargers in games played away from Arrowhead Stadium.  Bet the Chiefs Monday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +9 

I like the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 115-124 loss at Milwaukee as 11.5-point dogs on Thursday.  Now they get a shot at revenge just four days later and are at home this time around catching 9 points. 

It’s pretty amazing the Bulls were able to stay with 9 points of the Bucks on the road while shooting just 40.9% as a team.  I have to think they are going to have a better shooting night this time around, and I have a hard time believing the Bucks are going to get to the free throw line a ridiculous 47 times again. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Milwaukee) - after having won five or six of their last seven games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 67-32 (67.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Bulls Monday. 

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Kentucky -25 

The Kentucky Wildcats are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight.  They were just upset by Evansville as 24.5-point favorites last time out on Tuesday.  They’ve had nearly a full week to stew over that loss and will now be looking to take out their frustration on Utah Valley State tonight. 

Utah Valley State is 3-1 this season but has played a pretty easy schedule.  It’s a Utah Valley team that lost four starters who all averaged at least 8.5 points per game last year.  Their lone returning starter is Isaiah White, who averaged 8.5 points and 4.4 rebounds last year.   

It will be the 3rd game in 7 days for Utah Valley, which hasn’t had much time to prepare for Kentucky.  The Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  Roll with Kentucky Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +7 

This young Grizzlies team has really turned it around after a slow start this season and they’re becoming fun to watch because they are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA.  The Grizzlies are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with upset wins over the Spurs, Hornets and Jazz as combined 21-point dogs. 

The Denver Nuggets have been overvalued all season.  Despite being 8-3 SU, they are just 3-6-2 ATS with a lot of close wins.  Indeed, seven of their eight wins have come by 8 points or fewer.  And if they do get a win Sunday over the Grizzlies, I believe it will be by 7 points or less. 

This has been a closely-contested series with each of the last five meetings decide by 7 points or less.  The Nuggets haven’t beaten the Grizzlies by more than 6 points in any of the last 15 meetings in Memphis.  That makes for a 15-0 system backing Memphis pertaining to this 7-point spread tonight.  Take the Grizzlies Sunday. 

20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals +11 

I like the spot for the Arizona Cardinals this week.  They want revenge from a 25-28 loss as 10.5-point dogs to the 49ers just two weeks ago.  And after losing by only a field goal, they are now catching 11 points in the rematch.  It’s simply too much. 

The Cardinals found something in the 2nd half with their hurry-up offense that gave the 49ers problems.  They gained 357 yards on the 49ers' vaunted defense, which was a season-high allowed by the 49ers.  Look for them to go to the hurry-up sooner in this one to try and slow down that San Francisco pass rush. 

The 49ers will be on a short week after going into overtime against the Seahawks Monday Night.  They will be tired, and I think they could suffer a hangover from that defeat.  Their bubble was burst as their unbeaten season is now over.  That just screams hangover. 

Plus, the 49ers had a ton of guys go down with injury in that loss to the Seahawks.  They lost two defensive linemen in Ronald Blair and D.J. Jones.  Center Weston Richburg left the game with a hand injury.  WR Emmanuel Sanders left with a rib injury, and RB Matt Brida left with an ankle injury.  LT Joe Staley just returned last week only to go down with a finger injury that will sideline him.  George Kittle sat out that game with a knee injury and may not be ready to return.  The 49ers are as vulnerable as they have been all season due to all these injuries. 

The 49ers are clearly overvalued due to their record as they have failed to cover the spread in each of their last two games.  Now they are double-digit favorites here against a division rival when they shouldn’t be.  Arizona has quietly gone 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall, yet they still get no respect from the books. 

The 49ers are 15-29 ATS in their last 44 games following a Monday Night Football game.  Arizona is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 against good defensive teams that allow 260 or fewer yards per game.  The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco.  Arizona is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 division road games in a rematch.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3 

The Boston Celtics have won 10 straight and will be highly motivated to keep this winning streak going as long as they can.  I think we are getting them cheap here against the Sacramento Kings as only 3-point road favorites. 

The Kings are in a hangover spot off their tough 2-point loss to the Lakers on Friday.  And this is a Kings team getting a lot of respect now after playing the Lakers close and covering six in a row coming in.  But they are without De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley, and I just don’t think they can keep up their good play without Fox especially. 

The Celtics are 7-1 SU in their last eight meetings with the Kings, and their domination in this series continues today.  Sacramento is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Celtics Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Ravens -4.5 

The Baltimore Ravens are clearly one of the best teams in the NFL.  Yet, they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers because bettors simply don’t want to buy into Lamar Jackson.  The fact of the matter is Jackson is a good quarterback and an MVP candidate.  And until bettors believe it, they’ll continue to be undervalued. 

The Ravens have won five straight and covered three straight coming in.  That includes a 14-point win at Seattle, a 17-point home win over New England, and a 36-point demolition of Cincinnati on the road.  This team is hungry for more and smells blood in the water.  Now the Ravens have the inside track to the No. 1 seed in the AFC with the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Patriots. 

Jackson leads a Ravens offense that is 1st in scoring at 33.3 points per game and 2nd in total offense at 421.7 yards per game.  Offensive coordinator Greg Romans in his his first year with the team.  Romans is the best dual-threat QB coordinator in the history of the NFL.  He was responsible for Colin Kaepernick’s rise with the 49ers, and he also led Tyrod Taylor and the Buffalo Bills to the playoffs a few years back.  Now he has the best dual-threat he’s ever had in Jackson. 

Defensively, the Ravens started the season pretty rough.  But since getting healthy on that side of the ball with the return of star CB Jimmy Smith and the trade for CB Marcus Peters, the Ravens have been dominant defensively here down the stretch.  The Ravens have allowed just 17.8 points per game and only 303 yards per game during their five-game winning streak. 

Teams coming off a bye following a London game are 0-6 ATS this season.  And I worry about the Texans being fat and happy following their 26-3 win over the Jaguars.  But that was a misleading win as the Jaguars gave the game way with four turnovers and simply couldn’t capitalize in the red zone.  Almost all the turnovers came deep in Houston territory. 

J.J. Watt was one of the most destructive forces in the NFL this season before going down with a season-ending injury a few weeks back.  Now this is a Houston defense that is going to struggle to stop anyone the rest of the season.  They gave up 30 points and 383 yards to the Colts in a 23-30 loss three games back, gave up 24 points and 378 yards to the Raiders in a fortunate 27-24 home win two games ago, and the Jaguars had 356 total yards on them last time out despite only scoring 3 points.  This high-powered Ravens offense is going to have it way with this Houston defense. 

Houston is 0-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Texans are 16-30 ATS in their last 46 games off an upset win as an underdog.  Houston is 2-7 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record overall.  Roll with the Ravens Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 

The Jacksonville Jaguars are off a bye following their trip to London.  Look for them to put forth their best effort of the season today, especially with QB Nick Foles returning as their starting quarterback.  Gardner Minshew did a good job of holding down the fort while he was gone, but Foles is still clearly the better starter. 

The Jaguars are about as healthy as they’ve been all season now too after the bye.  The same cannot be said for the Indianapolis Colts, who are still without T.Y. Hilton, and they are 0-7 in their last seven games in which Hilton has sat.  They simply lack weapons at receiver without him and are too predictable.  He is one of the most underrated receivers in the NFL. 

I think the Jaguars come in undervalued after their blowout loss to the Texans in London.  Well, that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.  But the Jaguars gave it away with four turnovers as Minshew had his worst game as a starter, which ultimately led to Foles replacing him this week. 

The Colts are coming off a 12-16 upset loss to the Dolphins as 11-point favorites.  They managed just 300 yards on Miami and committed three turnovers.  QB Jacoby Brissett is going to give it a go this week, but he is clearly still going to be slowed by a knee injury and won’t be 100%.  And now that he doesn’t have TY Hilton, he’s going to struggle against a solid Jaguars defense. 

Plays on underdogs or PK (Jacksonville) - off a loss by 21 or more points against an opponent that scored 3 points or less in the first half of their previous game are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. AFC opponents.  The Colts are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Jaguars Sunday. 

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on UCLA +21.5 

The Utah Utes went into their bye week fat and happy after beating Washington on the road 33-28.  Now they’ve had two weeks to get patted on the back after appearing in the Top 10 of the college football playoff rankings.  I expect them to come out flat this week against UCLA. 

And I just simply believe it’s time to ’sell high’ on the Utes after they have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are quickly becoming one of the most public teams in the country as the betting public keeps getting rewarded by backing them.  I think that stops this weekend. 

UCLA was left for dead after a 1-5 start this season.  But we saw UCLA struggle in the first half of the season last year and play great in the 2nd half.  The same thing has happened this year.  UCLA has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games to improve to 4-5 on the season. 

They upset Stanford 34-16 as 4-point road dogs. They beat Arizona State 42-32 as 3.5-point road dogs in a game they led 42-10 going into the 4th quarter before pulling their starters and getting outscored 22-0 in the final period.  And they dominated Colorado 31-14 as 6.5-point home favorites last time out. 

Now the Bruins need to win two of their last three games to make a bowl game and will be ‘all in’ this week.  Not to mention, a victory Saturday would move UCLA into a tie for first place in the Pac-12 South.  The Bruins also come off their bye week, so this young team will only get better with the extra prep time. 

Getting QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson back from injury has made all the difference for the Bruins.  Being without him is the reason they lost to Arizona and Oregon State, or they’d have a better record than they do.  And they have gotten power running back Joshua Kelley going.  He has rushed for 466 yards and 7 touchdowns during their three-game winning streak.   

In fact, the Bruins have rushed for at least 200 yards in five straight games for the first time since 1978.  They are starting to play the way that Chip Kelly envisioned when he took over the program last year.  Kelly is 14-1 ATS in road games after a game where his team committed one or fewer turnovers as a college football head coach.  Bet UCLA Saturday. 

15* LSU/Ole Miss ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +21.5 

This is an awful spot to back LSU.  I’ve been backing LSU a lot this season, but I realize this is the worst spot they have been in all year.  I’m going to fade them because of it and grab Ole Miss +21.5 at home to keep it within three touchdowns. 

LSU is coming off a grueling, program-changing 46-41 win over Alabama last week on the road.  They won’t have much left in the tank after that win, and they certainly won’t be fully focused for Ole Miss this week.  They have been getting patted on the back all week with their No. 1 playoff ranking.  It’s only human nature for these young players to have an emotional letdown off such a huge win.  They probably think they just have to show up to win this week, but that won’t be the case. 

Ole Miss made easy work of New Mexico State in a 41-3 victory as 28-point favorites last week.  They got to rest their starters in the second half and save some energy for LSU this week, because they know they are going to need it.  Sitting at 4-6 on the season, this is Ole Miss’ Super Bowl, a chance to knock off the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  They will be more motivated in this game than any other game this season. 

Ole Miss QB John Rhys Plumlee is one of the best-kept secrets in the country.  The Ole Miss offense has been humming every since he took over at quarterback, and they can match LSU score for score with him at the helm.  Plumlee has thrown for 66 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 777 yards and seven scores on 6.8 per carry.  His dual-threat ability gives the Rebels a chance to keep the chains and the clock moving and to keep that potent LSU offense on the sideline. 

While the LSU offense is possibly the best in program history, the LSU defense isn’t as stout as it has been in years’ past.  The Tigers are giving up 22.3 points and 340.4 yards per game, including 32.5 points and 446.2 yards per game in their four road games this season.  Texas scored 38, Vanderbilt scored 38, Alabama scored 41 and Florida scored 28 on this LSU defense.  It can be done, and the Rebels will pull out all the stops this week.  That’s especially the case knowing they have a bye on deck next week to get ready for the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. 

LSU is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games off an upset win as a road underdog.  The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. 

Plays against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (LSU) - a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards per game, after gaining 525 or more total yards per game in their last two games are 52-23 (69.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Bulls -2 

The Chicago Bulls are playing much better of late after a slow start.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and starting to live up to the lofty expectations they had prior to the season.  This is a team with so much talent that they simply cannot stay down for long. 

After hanging tough with Milwaukee in a losing effort on the road last time out, the Bulls return home here to face the reeling, banged up Brooklyn Nets.  The Nets have lost three straight coming in and are in a very tough spot here.  They will be playing their 5th straight road game, and it’s clear they are running out of gas. 

Making matters worse for the Nets is that they just recently lost starter Caris LeVert to a thumb injury.  And Kyrie Irving is trying to play through a shoulder injury that is clearly hampering him.  Irving has been well below his season average of 28.5 PPG during the three-game losing streak.  He had 17 against Denver, 27 against Utah, and 15 against Phoenix.  Irving is questionable to play tonight as well. 

The Nets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Brooklyn is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games overall.  The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Look for the Bulls to bounce back with a win and cover tonight at home.  Roll with the Bulls Saturday. 

15* Texas/Iowa State FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Texas +7 

For starters, this is the first time that Texas has ever been an underdog to Iowa State dating back to at least 1980.  And not only are they dogs, they are 7-point dogs here, which gives us room to spare even if Iowa State does win this game.  The Cyclones simply aren’t 7 points better than Texas. 

The Longhorns have a lot more to play for than Iowa State.  If they win this game and win at Baylor next week, they could be going to the Big 12 title game.  They would need Oklahoma to beat Baylor this week, but considering the Sooners are double-digits favorites, they chances of them winning that game are pretty good. 

Texas put themselves in this position by erasing a 14-0 deficit to Kansas State last week and coming back to win 27-24.  However, that game wasn’t as close as the final score would indicate.  The Longhorns had a 477-304 yard edge over the Wildcats, outgaining them by 173 yards.  The Wildcats got a kickoff return TD that made it interesting late, but the Longhorns were able to hold them off for the win.  And now that puts them in this Big 12 title chase position they are in. 

Iowa State has to be feeling snake-bitten.  The Cyclones have four losses this season by a combined 11 points.  I think the loss to Oklahoma last week was the last straw.  They trailed by 21 points in the fourth quarter, came storming back to tie it, but decided to go for a 2-point conversion and the win and came up short.  They have bounced back nicely from losses before, but I think they have taken all the close losses they can handle this season.  I don’t expect them to be in a good mental state now that they are officially eliminated from Big 12 title contention. 

Tom Herman is an animal as an underdog.  Herman is 15-3 ATS as an underdog in his head-coaching career, which includes 11 outright upsets.  Not to mention, dating back to his time as an offensive coordinator, he is 25-4 ATS as an underdog.  Iowa State is just 3-6 ATS as a home favorite over the past two seasons. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Iowa State) - after having lost two of their last there games, with a winning record on the season are 47-16 (74.6%) ATS over the last fie seasons.  Plays on road underdogs (Texas) - off a home conference win against an opponent that’s off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference opponent are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Texas Saturday. 

20* Navy/Notre Dame Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Notre Dame -7 

Notre Dame opened as a double-digit favorite where they should have been against Navy.  This number has been bet all the way down to Notre Dame -7 now, and the price is right to pull the trigger on the Fighting Irish laying only a touchdown to the Midshipmen. 

No team has improved more since last year than Navy, which went 3-10 and lost to Army again.  Now the Midshipmen have opened 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS this season and betting public has taken notice.  Simply put, the time to back Navy was the first half of the season, not now that everyone has caught on.  That’s why we’ll ’sell high’ on the Midshipmen this week as they are one of the most popular public underdogs on the board. 

Navy has benefitted from playing the 97th-toughest schedule in the country, while Notre Dame has played the 31st-toughest.  That’s 66 spots difference between these teams in strength of schedule.  This will easily be Navy’s toughest test yet this season, and much tougher than their 23-35 loss at Memphis when they were 11-point dogs.  Notre Dame is better than Memphis, yet it is only a 7-point favorite compared to 11 for Memphis.  That fact alone shows you that there’s value with Notre Dame here. 

The Fighting Irish really impressed me last week by going into Duke and handling their business 38-7 as 7-point favorites.  They could have easily packed it in after suffering their second loss of the season at Michigan, but they did not.  They suffered a hangover the next week against VA Tech and needed a late touchdown to win 21-20 as 17.5-point favorites.  I was on VA Tech in that game and felt fortunate to get the cover as Notre Dame outgained the Hokies by 207 yards.  Notre Dame went on to destroy Duke last week and outgain them by 272 yards.  The hangover is gone, and it’s clear Notre Dame is still motivated to get the best bowl they can and another double-digit win season. 

Notre Dame has been a double-digit favorite against Navy in seven of the last eight meetings.  That’s how rare this single-digit line is.  And when the line has been low, Notre Dame has been a bad football team.  That’s not the case this year as the Fighting Irish are still one of the 15-20 best teams in the country.  Notre Dame is 22-4 SU in the last 26 meetings while being favored by an average of 18.8 points per game.  Notre Dame is 11-2 SU in the last 13 home meetings and has been favored by an average of 20.1 points per game.  These numbers also show that this -7 price is cheap. 

Plays against any team (Navy) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points in their last five games, a team that wins 80% or more of their games on the season while playing another team with a winning record are 73-35 (67.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

Notre Dame is 16-0 SU in its last 16 home games with 12 of those wins coming by 7 points or more.  Ken Niumatalolo is 5-15 ATS in road games off a bye week as the coach of Navy.  Brian Kelly is 30-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 75% in all games he has coached.  The Fighting Irish are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with Notre Dame Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa -9 

The Northern Iowa Panthers nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year.  They caught fire in the second half of the season and led Bradley in the MVC title game 35-17 before falling apart.  It was clear after that run that they’d be a force in 2019-20 with all they had returning. 

Indeed, the Panthers returned six of their top seven scorers from last year.  They have six seniors and three juniors and are actually led by a sophomore in A.J. Green, who averaged 15.0 PPG last year.  Green is their highest rated recruit in program history and likely a future NBA talent. 

I like the fact that Northern Iowa took a trip to Italy in August to bond.  It has paid dividends in the early going as the Panthers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with two wins by double-digits.  Now they are laying less than doubles against a Northern Colorado team I expect them to handle at home today. 

Northern Colorado is returning four starters this year, but they play in a much weaker conference in the Big Sky. And their opening 45-69 loss at Texas as 16.5-point dogs says everything that needs to be said about this team.  Texas isn’t expected to be very good this season, and I believe Northern Iowa would give the Longhorns a run for their money. 

The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Expect Northern Iowa to continue its solid play in the early going this season and win this game by double-digits.  Take Northern Iowa Saturday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana +14.5 

The Penn State Nittany Lions just had their bubble worst.  After starting 8-0, they just lost to Minnesota on the road last week and likely won’t be going to the four-team playoff now.  I said they were a fraud all along anyway, so it was about time they lost a close game after surviving several others.  And if they win this game Saturday against Indiana, it won’t be by more than two touchdowns. 

Penn State is in a ‘hangover’ spot from that loss to Minnesota.  It’s also a ’sandwich’ spot because they have a huge game at Ohio State on deck.  Look for the Nittany Lions to come out flat today against Indiana.  I love the fact that this is an early 12:00 EST start time because the fans won’t be nearly as rowdy as they would be for a ‘white out’.  Also, fans won’t be as excited now that the Nittany Lions aren’t undefeated any more. 

The reason I’ve said Penn State is a fraud this year is because they were outgained in four of their first eight games this season despite being 8-0.  They were outgained by both Buffalo and Pitt at home, were outgained by 62 yards in a fortunate 17-12 win at Iowa, and were outgained by 124 yards in a fortunate 28-21 home win over Michigan.  They have been outgained in three of their five home games this season. 

Indiana is one of the most improved teams in the country at 7-2 this season.  And the Hoosiers have been flying under the radar all year as they have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have three wins by 31-plus points during this stretch, and road wins over Maryland and Nebraska.  Their only loss during this stretch came on the road at Michigan State by 9 back before Sparty had a ton of players get injured and were playing well.  Now Indiana has two full weeks to prepare for Penn State after having a bye following its 34-3 dismantling of Northwestern two weekends ago. 

Jameis Franklin has been awful as a head coach of Penn State following any kind of loss.  Indeed, Franklin is 3-14 ATS off one or more consecutive losses as the coach of Penn State.  Franklin is 0-6 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of the Nittany Lions having never covered in this spot.  He clearly just doesn’t get through to his players when they are coming off a defeat. 

Adding to Indiana’s motivation this week is the fact that it lost 28-33 at home to Penn State last year as 14-point dogs in a game they felt like they should have won.  The Hoosiers had a 32-20 edge in first downs and a 554-417 yard edge, outgaining the Nittany Lions by 137 yards.  They haven’t forgotten about that defeat and will want to exact some revenge here. 

Plays on road underdogs (Indiana) - an excellent offensive team averaging 440 or more yards per game against an average offensive team (390-440 YPG), after outgaining its last opponent by 225 or more total yards are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Indiana Saturday. 

15* Michigan State/Michigan FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -13.5 

Mark Dantonio just seems to have lost his magic at Michigan State.  The Spartans went 3-9 in 2016 and just 7-6 in 2018.  They will be fortunate to even make a bowl game this year.  I just don’t like the mental state of the Spartans right now off four straight losses while going 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. 

After getting blasted by three of the best teams in the Big Ten in Ohio State by 24, Wisconsin by 38 and Penn State by 21, the Spartans returned from their bye last week and seemed primed for a good performance.  Instead, they blew a 28-3 lead and lost to lowly Illinois 34-37 as 16-point favorites.  I don’t see how you come back from that kind of a defeat as they gave up 27 points in the 4th quarter. 

Few teams have been hit harder by injuries than Michigan State.  They lost leading receiver Darrell Stewart a few weeks ago to a leg injury.  They lost leading tackler Joe Bachie for the season recently, who is the heart and soul of their defense.  Meanwhile, Michigan is almost fully healthy with only three players listed on the injury report compared to 15 for Michigan State.  And the Wolverines come in rested and ready to go off their bye week and ready to finish the season strong. 

It’s like the Wolverines flipped the switch after falling behind 21-0 against Penn State.  They came back and nearly won in a 21-28 loss in a ‘white out’ game at night at Penn State.  They outgained the Nittany Lions by 124 yards and probably should have won.  They responded with one of the most impressive wins by any team this season, a 45-14 home win over Notre Dame while outgaining the Fighting Irish by 257 yards.  And last time out they avoided a letdown and rolled Maryland 38-7 as 21.5-point road favorites. 

This Michigan offense has come to life in the second half of the season.  The Wolverines are averaging 36.5 points per game in their last four games despite facing some elite defenses in Notre Dame and Penn State.  I just don’t see how Michigan State can keep up with their putrid offense, which averages just 23.1 points and 366 yards per game this season.  Michigan is 5-0 at home this season and allowing just 11.8 points and 227 yards per game at the Big House. 

Michigan State has been a thorn in Michigan’s side, especially before Jim Harbaugh took over.  But the Wolverines have won two of the last three meetings, including a 21-7 win last year on the road.  This is their chance to kick ‘little brother’ while he is down, and you know the Wolverines are going to want to take full advantage.  I see no way the Spartans stay within two touchdowns. 

Michigan is 6-0 ATS in home games after having won two of their last three games over the last three seasons.  The Wolverines are 8-1 ATS in home games after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Spartans are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Take Michigan Saturday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas +17.5 

The Kansas Jayhawks are certainly improved in their first season under Les Miles.  They played Oklahoma (20-45), Texas (48-50) and Texas Tech (37-34) tougher than the books expected while going 3-0 ATS.  And after they finally got their Big 12 win over Texas Tech, they suffered a letdown the next week and were blown out by Kansas State. 

Now it’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Jayhawks after everyone has forgotten about them following that loss to Kansas State, which simply owns them.  The Jayhawks have had two full weeks to stew over that loss and get ready for Oklahoma State.  I think the bye week came at a perfect time for them. 

Oklahoma State is also off a bye week, but it’s bad timing for them.  The Cowboys are coming off two straight wins over Iowa State as 11-point road dogs and TCU as 1-point home favorites.  They had some momentum built up by catching both Iowa State and TCU off guard.  Now they are back in the role of the favorite, which hasn’t gone too well for them. 

The Cowboys were previously upset by Texas Tech as 9.5-point road favorites in a 35-45 loss.  They were also upset at home as 6-point favorites against Baylor in a 27-45 defeat.  I just don’t think the Cowboys can be trusted to lay this big of a number in conference play because they turn the ball over too much, and their three conference wins have come by 7, 7 and 13 points. 

Kansas stud QB Carter Stanley is back healthy now after getting knocked out of that loss to Kansas State with an injury.  Stanley is completing 63.6% of his passes for 2,015 yards with 19 touchdowns and only seven interceptions while averaging a solid 7.6 yards per attempt.  Pooka Williams has been productive since coming back from suspension, rushing for 765 yards and three touchdowns on 5.1 per carry.   

This is one of the most improved offenses in the country and they’re fully capable of matching Oklahoma State score for score.  The Jayhawks showed it in their 48-50 loss at Texas and their 37-34 win over Texas Tech, which are two teams that have beaten Oklahoma State this season.  The Cowboys are giving up 32.2 points and 463.7 yards per game in Big 12 play, and they can’t be laying 17 points with that putrid defense. 

The Jayhawks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.  Kansas is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet Kansas Saturday. 

20* Jazz/Grizzlies ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Memphis +7.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies are starting to play well here having won three of their last five with upset wins over Minnesota (137-121) as 3.5-point home dogs, San Antonio (113-109) as 10.5-point road dogs and Charlotte (119-117) as 2.5-point road dogs.  This young team is growing together quickly and playing tremendous on the offensive end, shooting 50.6% or better in four of their last five games coming in. 

The Utah Jazz came into the season getting a ton of publicity for the moves they made in the offseason.  They were a popular dark horse title contender pick in the West.  But they’ve struggled to live up to expectations, going 8-3 SU but 4-7 ATS on the season.  That includes a 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS record in road games this year.  Their only road cover came against the hapless Golden State Warriors. 

I think Mike Conley’s feelings toward Memphis work against him here.  He loves the city of Memphis as they gave him every opportunity to be a star.  This will be his first time playing in Memphis as an opponent.  I don’t see it going well for him, and I think the Grizzlies have the motivational edge because of it.  The Grizzlies are 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Jazz.   

Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - after going under the total by 54 or more points in their last 10 games, in the first half of the season are 42-13 (76.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Grizzlies Friday. 

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Rhode Island +2 

The Rhode Island Rams were in a rebuilding year last season and went just 18-15 (9-9 A-10) in David Cox’s first season on the job.  But now Cox returns all five starters and a ton of experience, which makes the Rams a dark horse contender to compete for the A-10 title. 

The five returning starters are Fatts Russell (14.2 PPG last year), Cyril Langevine (14.7 PPG, 9.9 RPG), Jeff Dowtin (15.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG), Tyrese Martin (8.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Jermaine Harris (4.4 PPG).  That’s a ton of returning production, and I think the fact that they are coming off a road loss to Maryland has the Rams undervalued coming into this home game against Alabama tonight. 

Alabama is in rebuilding mode under first-year head coach Nate Oats.  They returned three starters but lost three key players in Tevin Mack, Donta Hall and Dazon Ingram.  Top-100 recruit Juwan Gary is out for the season with a knee injury, stud JC transfer James Rojas is also out for the season with a knee injury, and Villanova transfer Jahvon Quinerly is out for the season due to being ineligible.  Returning starter Herbert Jones is questionable to play tonight with an elbow injury. 

This is an Alabama team that was upset at home by Pennsylvania in their opener.  I don’t think they should be favored on the road here against this veteran Rhode Island team when they can’t even beat Penn at home.  The Crimson Tide will be playing their first road game of the season here.  They have only three days to get ready for Rhode Island, while the Rams have had five days off since the loss to Maryland to prepare.   

Alabama is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. Atlantic 10 opponents.  The Crimson Tide are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Roll with Rhode Island Friday. 

25* C-USA GAME OF THE YEAR on Marshall -4.5 

Motivation will be on Marshall’s side this week.  The Thundering Herd are 0.5 games behind the FAU Owls for first place in the C-USA East.  They have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Owls after winning on the road as 4-point dogs, so they control their own destiny. 

Conversely, Louisiana Tech will have a hard time getting motivated this week because they have the inside track to win the much weaker C-USA West.  They are 5-0 in the conference and a loss to Marshall will not hurt them because they hold the tiebreaker over 4-1 Southern Miss after winning head-to-head.  So they essentially have a two-game lead in the division. 

The spot is also a good one for Marshall, which comes off a bye week and has had two full weeks to get ready for LA Tech.  Conversely, LA Tech will be on a short week after playing this past Saturday against North Texas.  It’s crazy how the schedule makers have given Marshall such a huge rest advantage coming into this weeknight game. 

Louisiana Tech has played one of the easiest schedules in the entire country.  Indeed, the Bulldogs have played the 145th-ranked schedule.  That means some FCS teams have even played harder schedules than they have.  Their eight wins have come against Grambling, Bowling Green, FIU, Rice, UMass, Southern Miss, UTEP and North Texas.  And they barely beat Grambling (20-14) and Rice (23-20). 

There are rumors surrounding the Louisiana Tech program that several key players could be suspended for this game, including QB J’mar Smith, who has thrown for 2,483 yards with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for 226 yards and two scores.  If the news comes out soon, this line will jump even more than it already has.  The good news is I like Marshall at this line regardless if anyone for LA Tech is suspended.  It would just be an added bonus if they were suspended. 

Plays against any team (LA Tech) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a team that wins more than 80% of their games on the season against a team with a winning record are 73-35 (67.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Thundering Herd are 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Marshall is 4-1 at home this season with its only loss to Cincinnati.  Bet Marshall Friday. 

20* Steelers/Browns AFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland -2.5 

The Cleveland Browns have played the 4th-toughest schedule in the NFL.  That’s a big reason why they haven’t lived up to the hype at 3-6 on the season.  But they’re not dead yet.  They turned things around with a huge 19-16 home win over the Bills last week, and now they have a very easy schedule the rest of the way to make a run in the second half of the season. 

The Browns are in a stretch here of four of five home games.  They host the Steelers, Dolphins and Bengals coming up, and they have winnable road games against the Steelers, Cardinals and Bengals.  They also host the Ravens.  They could conceivably run the table against this schedule as they will likely only be underdogs twice, and small dogs at that. 

While the Browns are only getting outgunned by 7.7 yards per game this season, the Steelers are getting outgained by 49.4 yards per game.  The Browns aren’t as bad as their 3-6 record, and the Steelers aren’t as good as their 5-4 record.  I believe the oddsmakers are warranted in making the Browns the favorites in this game despite having the worse record. 

It’s also worth noting that the Steelers have played a home-heavy schedule this year with six home games compared to only three road games.  They have just one road win all season, and that was a fluky win over the Chargers.  They finish the season playing five of their final seven games on the highway and their true colors will show here down the stretch. 

It’s a Steelers offense that I just cannot trust with Mason Rudolph at quarterback.  The Steelers rank 28th in total offense at 288.8 yards per game.  They were very fortunate to win each of their last two games as they managed just 273 yards against the Colts and 273 yards against the Rams as well.  The Steelers have forced a league-high 25 turnovers defensively, and there’s no way they can keep up this pace.  They have forced multiple turnovers in a whopping eight straight games coming in.  I don’t trust teams that rely on turnovers. 

Plays against any team (Pittsburgh) - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 22-3 (88%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Browns Thursday. 

15* Mavs/Knicks TNT ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -7.5 

The Dallas Mavericks want revenge from a 102-106 home loss to the New York Knicks on November 8th as 10.5-point favorites.  They don’t even have to wait a week to get their revenge as now they play the Knicks on the road here as 7.5-point favorites on November 14th. 

I also like the fact that the Mavericks are coming off a loss in Boston to add to their motivation.  They come in on two days’ rest as well so they are fresh and ready to go.  Plus, the Mavericks are fully healthy right now and will be primed for a big effort. 

The Knicks are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Five of those six losses came by 12 points or more, so they are used to getting blown out on the regular.  And there’s been serious talks about firing their head coach David Fizdale in the media.  It’s just more of the same in New York this season. 

Dallas is 21-9 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Mavericks are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Knicks are 21-45 ATS in their last 66 home games.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to New York.  Take the Mavericks Thursday. 

15* Buffalo/Kent State MAC No-Brainer on Kent State +6 

The Kent State Golden Flashes have been one of the more improved teams in the country this season.  They are only 3-6, but they have been much more competitive this year than last year.  Each of their last three losses have come by 7 points or fewer.  And while they are 2-3 in conference play, they are actually outscoring opponents by 9.8 points per game in MAC action. 

I think the Golden Flashes will give a big effort here at home Thursday night in this standalone MAC game.  This is their final stand if they want to stay alive for a bowl game since they have six losses on the season.  They played both Ohio (38-45) and Toledo (33-35) tough on the road, and Miami Ohio (16-23) at home.  Those are three of the best teams in the MAC.  If they can hang with them, they can certainly hang with Buffalo tonight. 

The Bulls come in overvalued on a three-game winning streak while also covering four in a row.  Their wins over bottom feeders Akron and Eastern Michigan weren’t impressive at all.  And their win over Central Michigan was very fluky because the Chippewas gave the game away with five turnovers.   

Kent State isn’t a team that beats itself with turnovers as the Golden Flashes haven’t committed more than two in any game this season, and they’ve only committed nine in nine games on the season.  Buffalo has been relying on turnovers during its 4-0 ATS streak, forcing a total of 12 turnovers in its last four games overall.  I don’t trust teams that rely on forcing turnovers to win games. 

Kent State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after covering the spread in three of its last four coming in.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Kent State) - off a road cover where they lost as an underdogs, with 6-plus more total starters returning than their opponent are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1992.  Roll with Kent State Thursday. 

15* Purdue/Marquette FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Marquette -1 

The Marquette Golden Eagles return three starters from a team that went 24-10 last season.  That includes National Playoer of the Year candidate Marcus Howard, who averaged 25.0 points per game last year.  They also return Sacar Animalities (8.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG) and Theo John (5.5 PPG, 4.9 RPG) and a couple key reserves. 

The Golden Eagles are off to a flying start this season with an 88-53 home win over Loyola-MD as an 18.5-point favorites.  Howard had 38 points, Anim had 11 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists,  and John had 7 points and 8 rebounds.  Utah State transfer Koby McEwen added 11 points and 7 boards.  Now they’ve had eight days to get ready for Purdue after playing that game on November 5th. 

Purdue loses a ton of talent from a team that made the Elite 8 last year and took eventual national champion Virginia to the wire.  Carsen Edwards (24.3 PPG, 135 3-pointers) is gone after single-handedly carrying the Boilermakers on their NCAA Tournament run.  Also gone is second-leading scorer Ryan Cline (12.0 PPG, 111 3-pointers).  Replacing those two is impossible. 

Purdue is off to a shaky start failing to cover as a 23-point home favorite against Wisconsin-Green Bay and losing outright as 6.5-point home favorites against Texas, 66-70.  The Boilermakers shot just 41% from the field against the Longhorns and allowed 53.3% shooting to a team that is notoriously a poor shooting team year in and year out. 

Purdue is 23-44 ATS in its last 67 road games after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite.  Marquette is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Boilermakers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big East opponents.  The Golden Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Take Marquette Wednesday. 

20* NIU/Toledo MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Toledo -2 

The Toledo Rockets sit at 6-3 and are in control of their own destiny in winning the MAC West.  They have the head-to-head tiebreaker with Western Michigan after beating the Broncos at home.  The position they are in assures they will show up week in and week out to try and win the MAC West. 

Now the Rockets host a poor Northern Illinois team that is just 3-6 this season and clearly in rebuilding mode.  The Huskies are coming off an ugly 10-48 road loss to Central Michigan in which they gave up 615 total yards and committed four turnovers.  I don’t understand why they are getting so much respect from oddsmakers.  Their name carries some weight, but this has been a rebuilding project all year after losing their head coach in the offseason. 

Toledo is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 12.8 points per game.  Their offense has lit up the scoreboard with 35.2 points and 489.6 yards per game at home this year.  Northern Illinois is 1-5 on the road, getting outscored by 16.4 points per game.  Their offense has only managed 19.3 points per game on the highway this season, and I just don’t see how they are going to keep up with Toledo on the scoreboard in this one. 

The Rockets also have the matchup advantage.  They rush for 250 yards per game and 5.4 per carry on the season.  Well, Northern Illinois gives up 175 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  They give up 0.8 yards per carry more than their opponents rush for on average.  The Rockets should be able to run the football at will on them. 

Northern Illinois is 1-8 ATS off a game where it forced zero turnovers over the last three seasons.  The Huskies are 2-8 ATS int heir last 10 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Bet Toledo Wednesday. 

20* Clippers/Rockets ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +2.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers are the best team in the NBA from what I’ve seen thus far when Kawhi Leonard is on the floor.  They are 7-1 in games that he has played, and he’s expected to play tonight against the Houston Rockets despite this being a back-to-back situation with a game against the Pelicans tomorrow. 

Leonard is averaging 26.0 points, 8.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists this season to pick up right where he left off.  Both Lou Williams (22.3 PPG, 5.6 APG) and Matrezl Harrell (19.8 PPG, 7.1 RPG) have taken their games to the next level.  And guys like Ivaca Zubac, JayMychal Green and Patrick Beverley are all playing well. 

The Houston Rockets have some injury issues right now that will slow them down in the immediate future.  Eric Gordon won’t be back until late December after having knee surgery.  They were already without Gerald Green and Nene, and now Danuel House Jr. is out tonight with a back injury.  It’s a team that already lacks depth due to the massive contracts on the roster, and now they won’t have the depth to match the Clippers tonight. 

The Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Rockets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games playing on one days’ rest.  Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  The Clippers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.  Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Houston.  Take the Clippers Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -1 

Don’t be surprised if the Philadelphia 76ers decide to rest a star player or two tonight after a grueling 98-97 home win over Cleveland as 11-point favorites last night.  They’ll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 12 days. 

The Orlando Magic are rested and ready to go coming in on two days’ rest after last playing on Sunday.  The Magic are also highly motivated for a win tonight after dropping five of their last six games overall.  They are a respectable 3-3 at home this season compared to 0-4 on the road. 

Home-court advantage was huge in this series last season as the home team went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS.  The Magic won both home meetings with the 76ers 119-98 as 2-point favorites and 111-106 as 6-point dogs.  The home team is also 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings. 

Orlando is 18-8-1 ATS in its last 27 games vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. NBA Southeast Division foes.  The 76ers are 11-25 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  Philadelphia is 29-50 ATS in its last 79 games off a close home win by 3 points or less.   

Plays against any team (Philadelphia) - playing its 3rd game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 71-35 (67%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Magic Wednesday. 

20* LSU/VCU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on VCU -2.5 

The VCU Rams want some revenge on LSU head coach Will Wade, who succeeded former head coach Shaka Smart in Richmond.  As part of an agreement to allow the third-year LSU coach to escape his contract with VCU to take his current job, these two programs agreed to play a home-and-home in 2019 and 2020. 

“I do think most of the fans were not real please with me,” Wade told the Advocate of his departure from the Rams in 2017. “They’re not real happy about the move, and I’m sure they’ll let their feelings be known when we show up there.” 

Current VCU head coach Mike Rhoades led the Rams to a 25-8 record last season and first-place finish in the Atlantic 10 with a 16-2 record.  Now Rhoads has almost everyone back with four double-digit scorers returning in Marcus Evans (13.6 PPG), De’Riante Jenkins (11.3 PPG), Issac Vann (10.8 PPG) and Marcus Santos-Silva (10.0 PPG, 7.4 RPG).  The Rams ranked top 10 in the nation in defense last season. 

LSU only returns two starters in Skylar Mays (13.4 PPG, 3.3 RPG) and Marion Taylor (6.7 PPG, 3.6 RPG).  They lose their top two scorers in Tremont Waters (15.3 PPG, 5.8 APG) and Naz Reid (13.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG) to the NBA.  They also lose key big man Kavell Bigby-Williams (7.9 PPG, 6.7 RPG).  They got off to a shaky start with an 88-79 home win over Bowling Green as a 13-point favorite.  They committed 16 turnovers and will struggle to take care of the ball against this lockdown VCU defense. 

VCU is 12-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 9-0 ATS after failing to cove the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three years.  Bet VCU Wednesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers +10 

The Philadelphia 76ers are without Al Horford and could be without Ben Simmons due to a shoulder injury yet again tonight.  It’s no wonder they have lost three of their last four coming in with their only win coming by 8 over the Hornets at home as 14-point favorites.  They should not be double-digit favorites over the Cavaliers tonight. 

Cleveland is one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  The Cavaliers are 4-5 SU & 5-2-2 ATS in the first year under John Beilein.  They are coming off two straight upset road wins in blowout fashion over the Wizards by 13 and the Knicks by 21.   

Veterans Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson are both healthy and playing great basketball, while Collin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. are all improved after playing together last year.  And rookie Darius Garland is getting acclimated to playing in the NBA while playing alongside Sexton in the backcourt. 

The Cavaliers are 2-2 SU but 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings at Philadelphia.  They were underdogs in all four and won outright as 13-point dogs and outright as 2-point dogs.  They also covered as 15-point dogs in a 7-point loss and as 3.5-point dogs in a 2-point loss.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Cavaliers Tuesday. 

15* Creighton/Michigan FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Creighton +5.5 

The Creighton Bluejays are going to challenge for a Big East title this year.  They returned four starters in Davion Mintz (9.7 PPG, 3.0 APG), Ty-Shon Alexander (15.7 PPG, 97 3-pointers), Marcus Zegarowski (10.4 PPG, 3.4 APG) and Mictch Ballock (11.1 PPG, 95 3-pointers).  They are one of the most veteran teams in the conference. 

The Michigan Wolverines are in a bit of a rebuild now that John Beilein moved on to coach in the NBA with the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Former Wolverine Juwan Howard got the job and will have his hands full matching Beilein’s success early in his career. 

Howard only inherits two returning starters in Xavier Simpson (7.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG) and Jon Teske (9.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG).  The Wolverines must replace their top three scorers from last year in Ignas Brazdeikis (14.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG), Jordan Poole (12.8 PPG) and Charles Matthews (12.2 PPG, 5.0 RPG). 

Michigan got off to a rough start in their opener, only beating Appalachian State 79-71 as 17-point favorites.  Creighton made easy work of Kennesaw State 81-55 and covered as 25.5-point favorites.  Look for the Bluejays to give the Wolverines a run for their money tonight and likely win this game outright. 

The Bluejays are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Creighton is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Wolverines are 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.  Take Creighton Tuesday. 

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan/Akron UNDER 46.5 

There has been snow and rain in Akron all day Tuesday.  There is a chance of precipitation all day today.  The temperature will be around 23 degrees by game time and it will be windy.  These are perfect conditions for a bet on the UNDER tonight. 

Akron is challenging UMass for the worst team in football.  The Zips are 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS.  Their biggest problem has been their putrid offense, which averages just 10.2 points and 255.6 yards per game on the season.  The Zips have scored a total of 9 points in their last four games, an average of just 2.3 points per game. 

It’s not like Eastern Michigan has been lighting up the scoreboard since getting into MAC play, either.  The Eagles are scoring just 24.2 points per game in their five MAC games this season.  And the Zips have at least been respectable defensively this season in giving up 390 yards per game and 5.4 per play. 

These teams met last year with Eastern Michigan winning 27-7 for 34 combined points.  I think we see a similar output from both teams tonight as this game stays well UNDER the total. 

Akron is 10-1 UNDER vs. teams that allow 200 or more rushing yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Zips are 8-1 UNDER vs. teams who allow 31 or more points per game over the last two years.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Eagles last four games following a double-digit home loss.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Zips last seven Tuesday games.  The UNDER is 43-18 in Zips last 61 conference games.  The UNDER is 35-17 in Zips last 52 home games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

15* Seahawks/49ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -6 

The San Francisco 49ers are 8-0 and nothing has been fluky at all about their start.  They are outscoring opponents by 16.7 points per game on the season.  They rank 7th in total offense at 390.2 yards per game and 1st in total defense at 241.0 yards per game.  They are outgaining opponents by 149.2 yards per game on the season, which is the best mark in the entire NFL.  Only two of their eight wins have come by less than 9 points. 

Now the 49ers come in on extra rest after beating the Cardinals last Thursday.  That extra rest should allow for some key pieces to come back as T Joe Staley and FB Kyle Juszczyk are both expected to be ready to go by Monday.  Fellow T Mike McGlinchey has also been upgraded to questionable, and getting at least two of these three guys back will make the offense even more potent.  They do lose LB Kwon Alexander to a season-ending injury, but they will get back more than they lose this week. 

The Seahawks are 7-2, but their record is certainly fluky, and they are starting to run out of gas since they haven’t had a bye week yet.  The Seahawks are only outscoring teams by 2.0 points per game and outgaining them by 14.2 yards per game this season.  Seattle has gone 6-1 in games decided by a TD or less, getting extremely fortunate in close games, including narrow wins over bad teams in Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Atlanta and Tampa.   

Seattle has a leaky stop unit that ranks 25th in total defense at 380.2 yards per game and 22nd in scoring defense at 25.6 points per game.  The 49ers rank 2nd in yards per play (4.5) allowed defensively, while the Seahawks are 30th in yards per play (6.2) allowed.  And that right there is going to be the difference in this game. 

The Seahawks have been relying on Russell Wilson to move the football through the air.  Well, he hasn’t seen a pass rush like the one the 49ers will throw at him.  And he certainly hasn’t faced a passing defense as good as the 49ers.  San Francisco ranks 1st in the NFL with just 138.1 passing yards per game allowed. 

The 49ers have the 2nd-ranked rushing offense in the NFL at 171.1 yards per game.  With FB Juszczyk back paving the way for their RB’s, this rushing attack will get even more potent moving forward.  The Seahawks rank 22nd in the NFL in yards per carry (4.7) allowed this season, so the 49ers should be able to move the football at will.  That will open things up for the play-action passing game with Jimmy G, who is coming off his best game of the season with 317 passing yards and four touchdowns against the Cardinals last week. 

The 49ers are 27-7 ATS in their last 34 Monday Night Football games.  We last saw them blitz the Browns 31-3 on Monday Night Football earlier this season.  San Francisco is 4-1-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  Seattle is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Bet the 49ers Monday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +6 

The New Orleans Pelicans are showing great value as 6-point home underdogs to the Houston Rockets tonight.  The Pelicans are better than their 2-7 record would indicate as they have suffered several close losses this season. 

Indeed, six of the Pelicans’ seven losses have come by 11 points or fewer.  They got on track last time out with a 115-110 road win over Charlotte.  Look for them to give Houston a run for its money tonight and possibly pull off the upset. 

The chemistry for the Rockets hasn’t been great this season with the addition of Russell Westbrook.  They have actually played better without him.  Their defense has taken a huge step back as they are giving up 118.7 points per game this season.  They are only shooting 44% as a team as well. 

The Rockets are 3-7 ATS in hitter last 10 games overall.  Houston is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.  Roll with the Pelicans Monday. 

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Drake +12.5 

The Drake Bulldogs were one of the most underrated teams in the country last season.  They went 24-10 (12-6 MVC) and tied for first in the conference.  They were covering machines and I expect them to continue beating the closing number at a great rate this season. 

The Bulldogs returned three starters and three key reserves this season and are among the favorites to win the MVC again.  They’re off to a good start with an 86-55 win over Kennesaw State as 15-point favorites.  They shot 57.6% as a team and had five players score in double figures, including a couple newcomers in Jonah Jackson (15 points) and Roman Penn (10 points). 

Cincinnati lost head coach Mick Cronin to UCLA and will take a step back this year.  They opened the season with a 56-64 loss at in-state rival Ohio State as 5.5-point dogs.  They will have a hard time getting up for Drake after facing a ranked Ohio State team. 

Drake is 24-8 ATS in all games over the last two seasons, and 36-16-2 ATS in its last 54 games overall.  The Bulldogs are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.  Cincinnati is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  The Bearcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games.  Take Drake Monday. 

25* NBC Sunday Night PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Cowboys -3/UNDER 48 

Reasons for Cowboys -3: 

The Dallas Cowboys have shown what they are capable of when fully healthy at the beginning of the season and here of late.  They had some injuries on the offensive line and at receiver that cost them a three-game losing streak in which they lost two games by 2 points each.  But in their five wins all five have come by double-digits. 

The Cowboys’ last two games have been very impressive.  They beat the Eagles 37-10 as 3-point home favorites and held them to just 283 total yards while forcing four turnovers.  The Eagles have gone on to blow out the Bills and the Bears since.  Last week they won 37-18 at the Giants and held them to 271 yards while forcing three turnovers.  They outgained the Giants by 158 yards. 

In fact, the Cowboys have outgained seven of their eight opponents this season, which is the sign of a dominant team.  The Cowboys rank 1st in total offense at 436.8 yards per gam and 1st in yards per play at 6.7 per play.  Dak Prescott is having a huge year, and Zeke running behind a healthy offensive line has been downright scary.  Defensively, the rank 5th in scoring (17.8 points/game) and 6th in total defense (318.1 yards/game).  They are outgaining teams by 118.7 yards per game. 

I just don’t trust Kirk Cousins in primetime games.  Cousins is 6-15 in his career in primetime games.  He is 1-6 in his career against the Cowboys.  Dak Prescott is 15-5 in primetime games.  Prescott is 5-0 straight up against Cousins.  And Cousins is going to be without his security blanked in Adam Thielen, who reaggravated his hamstring injury last week against the Chiefs.  The Vikings managed just 308 total yards against a bad Chiefs defense last week in an upset loss against Matt Moore. 

The Cowboys are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season with their only loss coming to the Packers.  It was a fluky loss as the Cowboys outgained the Packers by 228 yards.  The Vikings are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five November games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday. 

Reasons for UNDER 48: 

Both the Vikings and Cowboys love to run the football and play at slow paces while controlling time of possession.  The Vikings are 3rd in the NFL in rushing offense at 153.0 yards per game, while the Cowboys are 4th at 149.2 yards per game.  Running the ball will keep the clock moving and benefit the UNDER in this game. 

Both defenses have been great at stopping the run this season.  The Vikings are 8th against the run, allowing 95.8 yards per game.  The Cowboys are 10th against the run, yielding just 97.2 yards per game.  Yards will be harder to come by on the ground for both teams than they’re accustomed to. 

Both teams have elite defenses.  The Vikings are 4th in scoring defense at 17.6 points per game, while the Cowboys are 5th at 17.8 points per game allowed.  The Cowboys are 6th in total defense at 318.1 yards per game, while the Vikings are 8th at 320.9 yards per game.   

These are the two best defenses that both offenses will have faced this season with the exception of perhaps when the Cowboys played the Saints on a road, a game that saw 22 combined points in a 12-10 victory by New Orleans.  The best defense Minnesota has faced was Chicago, and that game also saw 22 combined points in a 6-16 road loss to the Bears. 

Kirk Cousins has just been awful in primetime games and and against the Cowboys, and you can look above to see those records.  And he’s going to be without Adam Thielen, taking away what I believe is the most important weapon on the Vikings because he is Cousins’ security blanket on 3rd downs.  The Cowboys can focus their attention on stopping Stefon Diggs now.  Their next-leading receiver after Diggs, Thielen and Dalvin Cook is Irv Smith Jr. who has just 19 receptions for 207 yards this year. 

Minnesota is 20-8 UNDER in its last 28 games off an upset loss as a road favorite.  Dallas is 13-4 UNDER in its last 17 home games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games.  Mike Zimmer is 9-2 UNDER as a road dog of 3 points or less as the coach of the Vikings.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Vikings last 11 vs. NFC opponents.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last fie meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

25* NBC Sunday Night PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Cowboys -3/UNDER 48 

Reasons for Cowboys -3: 

The Dallas Cowboys have shown what they are capable of when fully healthy at the beginning of the season and here of late.  They had some injuries on the offensive line and at receiver that cost them a three-game losing streak in which they lost two games by 2 points each.  But in their five wins all five have come by double-digits. 

The Cowboys’ last two games have been very impressive.  They beat the Eagles 37-10 as 3-point home favorites and held them to just 283 total yards while forcing four turnovers.  The Eagles have gone on to blow out the Bills and the Bears since.  Last week they won 37-18 at the Giants and held them to 271 yards while forcing three turnovers.  They outgained the Giants by 158 yards. 

In fact, the Cowboys have outgained seven of their eight opponents this season, which is the sign of a dominant team.  The Cowboys rank 1st in total offense at 436.8 yards per gam and 1st in yards per play at 6.7 per play.  Dak Prescott is having a huge year, and Zeke running behind a healthy offensive line has been downright scary.  Defensively, the rank 5th in scoring (17.8 points/game) and 6th in total defense (318.1 yards/game).  They are outgaining teams by 118.7 yards per game. 

I just don’t trust Kirk Cousins in primetime games.  Cousins is 6-15 in his career in primetime games.  He is 1-6 in his career against the Cowboys.  Dak Prescott is 15-5 in primetime games.  Prescott is 5-0 straight up against Cousins.  And Cousins is going to be without his security blanked in Adam Thielen, who reaggravated his hamstring injury last week against the Chiefs.  The Vikings managed just 308 total yards against a bad Chiefs defense last week in an upset loss against Matt Moore. 

The Cowboys are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season with their only loss coming to the Packers.  It was a fluky loss as the Cowboys outgained the Packers by 228 yards.  The Vikings are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five November games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday. 

Reasons for UNDER 48: 

Both the Vikings and Cowboys love to run the football and play at slow paces while controlling time of possession.  The Vikings are 3rd in the NFL in rushing offense at 153.0 yards per game, while the Cowboys are 4th at 149.2 yards per game.  Running the ball will keep the clock moving and benefit the UNDER in this game. 

Both defenses have been great at stopping the run this season.  The Vikings are 8th against the run, allowing 95.8 yards per game.  The Cowboys are 10th against the run, yielding just 97.2 yards per game.  Yards will be harder to come by on the ground for both teams than they’re accustomed to. 

Both teams have elite defenses.  The Vikings are 4th in scoring defense at 17.6 points per game, while the Cowboys are 5th at 17.8 points per game allowed.  The Cowboys are 6th in total defense at 318.1 yards per game, while the Vikings are 8th at 320.9 yards per game.   

These are the two best defenses that both offenses will have faced this season with the exception of perhaps when the Cowboys played the Saints on a road, a game that saw 22 combined points in a 12-10 victory by New Orleans.  The best defense Minnesota has faced was Chicago, and that game also saw 22 combined points in a 6-16 road loss to the Bears. 

Kirk Cousins has just been awful in primetime games and and against the Cowboys, and you can look above to see those records.  And he’s going to be without Adam Thielen, taking away what I believe is the most important weapon on the Vikings because he is Cousins’ security blanket on 3rd downs.  The Cowboys can focus their attention on stopping Stefon Diggs now.  Their next-leading receiver after Diggs, Thielen and Dalvin Cook is Irv Smith Jr. who has just 19 receptions for 207 yards this year. 

Minnesota is 20-8 UNDER in its last 28 games off an upset loss as a road favorite.  Dallas is 13-4 UNDER in its last 17 home games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games.  Mike Zimmer is 9-2 UNDER as a road dog of 3 points or less as the coach of the Vikings.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Vikings last 11 vs. NFC opponents.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last fie meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic -3.5 

The Orlando Magic are undervalued right now after a 3-6 start against a brutal schedule.  They have handled the teams they should handle in Cleveland, New York and Memphis by winning those three games by a combined 53 points. 

However, the Magic have lost to almost all the tough teams they have faced.  They lost on the road to Dallas, OKC, Toronto and Atlanta, and also lost at home to Milwaukee and Denver. 

Indiana is classified as a team they should beat in my book.  That’s especially the case with the injuries the Pacers are dealing with right now.  They are without three starters in Victor Oladipo, Myles Turner and Jeremy Lamb. 

The Magic went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their final three meetings with the Pacers last season.  The Pacers are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 road games. Indiana is 4-13-1 ATS in its last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Magic are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Orlando is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Bet the Magic Sunday. 

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Rams -3.5 

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Rams this week.  The Rams are coming off a bye following their win over the Bengals in London.  They’ll be rested and ready to go today.  Road favorites off a bye are 75-38 (66%) in the last 113 tries.  The Rams are 8-1 SU and scoring 36 points per game with extra time to prepare under Sean McVey. 

The Rams have been dominant defensively since trading for Jalen Ramsey to give their secondary a huge boost.  They gave up just 10 points at Atlanta and just 10 points to the Bengals while outscoring those two teams by a combined 41 points, or an average of 20.5 points per game. 

The Steelers are now getting too much respect from oddsmakers for their three-game winning streak.  It has come against the Chargers, Dolphins and Colts.  The Chargers gave the game away with three turnovers, the Dolphins gave the game away with four turnovers, and the Colts gave the game away with three turnovers.  Pittsburgh has been relying on turnovers all season. 

Well, the Rams have only committed one turnover in their last three games combined, so they aren’t a team that just gives the ball away.  The Steelers were lucky to have Jacoby Brissett get injured for the Colts early last week so they had to face Brian Hoyer instead.  And they still nearly lost as Adam Vinatieri missed a potential game-winning 41-yard field goal. 

I just don’t see how the Steelers can keep up on the scoreboard in this game because they don’t have the firepower to match Jared Goff and company.  The Steelers rank 28th in total offense at 290.8 yards per game.  Mason Rudolph clearly just isn’t very good, and their predictable offense is built around a short passing game with the majority of his pass attempts going to running backs.  The Steelers are averaging just 6.4 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 29th in the league.  They are also 26th in rushing offense at 88.4 yards per game.  Pittsburgh is unlikely to get James Conner back from a shoulder injury as he’s listed as doubtful. 

Sean McVay is a perfect 7-0 ATS against poor rushing teams that average 90 or fewer rushing yards per game as the coach of Los Angeles.  The Rams are winning by nearly 20 points per game in this spot.  This trend makes sense to me because teams that can’t run the ball consistently aren’t able to control the time of possession and keep the Rams’ high-powered offense off the field.  The Rams are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games and have been covering machines on the highway since McVey took over.  Bet the Rams Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida -5.5 

The Florida Gators are the No. 6 team in the country for good reason.  They returned three starters and added in Virginia Tech transfer Kerry Blackshear Jr. who is a clear NBA talent. 

I faded Florida State against Pitt in their opener and won and I’m fading the Seminoles again today.  They lost six of their top eight scorers from last year and simply aren’t nearly as good as they are getting credit for after going 29-8 last season. 

Florida will come into this game highly motivated for a win after losing five straight to Florida State, including blowout losses each of the last two seasons.  This is their year to get payback because they finally have the better team, and it’s not even close.  Take Florida Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Dallas Mavericks -3 

The Dallas Mavericks are coming off an upset loss to the New York Knicks last night.  They will be in a bad mood and will come out highly motivated tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies.  I think we are getting them at a discount after the upset loss. 

The Grizzlies are just 2-6 this season and have been blown out consistently with all six losses coming by 7 points or more.  The Grizzlies will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after an 86-116 loss in Orlando last night.  They’ll be playing their 5th game in 8 days as well, while the Mavericks will be playing just their 3rd game in 6 days. 

Plays on road favorites (Dallas) - a good team with a +3 to +7 PPG differential against a terrible team with a -7 PPG differential or worse, after a combined score of 205 points or more in four straight games are 32-9 (78%) ATS since 1996.   

The Mavericks are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Dallas is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss.  The Grizzlies are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games when playing on zero days’ rest.  Take the Mavericks Saturday. 

15* Missouri/Georgia ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia -16 

It’s like everyone wrote off Georgia after a fluky loss to South Carolina in which they outgained the Gamecocks by 171 yards and should have won.  This is still one of the best teams in the country.  And after opening ranked 6th in the initial playoff rankings, they can certainly use some style points here down the stretch.  That’s part of the reason why I’m laying the 16 points here with the Bulldogs. 

Georgia was dominant last week in its 24-17 win over Florida in which the Bulldogs outgained the Gators by 120 yards.  Jake Fromm proved there was nothing wrong with him, throwing for 279 yards and two touchdowns without an interception against a very good Florida defense.  The Bulldogs held the Gators to a season-low 278 yards, including 21 rushing on 19 carries. 

Georgia has outgained all eight of its opponents this season and six of those by 120 yards or more.  The Bulldogs are outgaining opponents by over 194 yards per game and outscoring them by 23.1 points per game on the season.  They have an elite defense that allows 11.4 points and 268.1 yards per game. 

Missouri is 5-0 at home this season against a soft schedule, but the Tigers are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS on the road. They are scoring just 17.3 points per game on the highway and getting outscored by 11.7 points per game.  This despite the fact that they have had a soft road schedule and have been double-digit favorites in all three road games.  They lost 31-37 as 15.5-point favorites at Wyoming, lost 14-21 as 21.5-point favorites at Vanderbilt, and lost 7-29 as 10-point favorites at Kentucky.  They have failed to cover the spread by a combined 82 points in their three road games. 

Now, the Tigers face their stiffest test of the season on the road at Georgia this week.  They are getting too much respect from oddsmakers as only 16-point dogs given what we’ve seen from them on the highway thus far this season.  Part of the reason the line is low is because Missouri is off a bye, but QB Kelly Bryant came up limp with a hamstring injury last game and won’t be fully healthy even with the bye.  And Georgia had a bye before Florida, so the Bulldogs will still be fresh this week.  And like I said the Bulldogs need style points so they will be plenty motivated this week. 

The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven November games.  Georgia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference games.  Georgia is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  I like the fact that this is a night game and the fans will be rowdy in a great atmosphere in Athens.  Bet Georgia Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa +1.5 

The Northern Iowa Panthers nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year.  They caught fire around Valentine’s Day and led Bradley in the MVC title game 35-17 before falling apart. 

Now, Northern Iowa returns six of its top seven scorers and is a clear contender in the MVC this season.  They have six seniors and three juniors and are actually led by sophomore A.J. Green (15.0 PPG, 71 3-pointers), who is their highest rated recruit in program history.  They took a trip to Italy in August to bond even further. 

The Panthers are coming off a very good 58-53 win over Old Dominion as 4.5-point favorites despite shooting just 34.5% from the field.  They held the Monarchs to just 35.6% shooting, and their suffocating defense has been a staple in the Ben Jacobson era.  I like the fact that they have a game under their belts already while this will be the first game of the season for Northern Illinois. 

Northern Illinois loses two of its top three scorers in Levi Bradley (14.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Dante Thorp (13.8 PPG).  That’s a lot of production needing replace from a middling Huskies team that went just 17-17 last year and 8-10 in MAC play.  Roll with Northern Iowa Saturday. 

15* LSU/Alabama CBS No-Brainer on LSU +6.5 

The LSU Tigers finally have the team to beat Alabama.  The Les Miles era is over, and there’s a new sheriff in town in Ed Orgeron.  Orgeron has proven himself quickly at LSU by going 7-1 SU against Top 10 teams in his last eight matchups against them.  I really believe LSU is neck and neck with Ohio State as the best team in the country this year. 

The reason LSU has a chance to beat Alabama finally is because they have their best offense in program history.  The Tigers have gone to a more up-tempo passing game to take advantage of all their athletes.  The result has been an average of 46.7 points and 535.9 yards per game this season.  Joe Burrow is a Heisman favorite while completing 78.8% of his passes for 2,805 yards with a 30-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 10.8 yards per attempt. 

LSU has proven its meddle against a much tougher schedule than that of Alabama.  LSU has played the 34th-toughest schedule, while Alabama has played the 59th.  LSU has already played and disposed of two top 10 teams in Florida and Auburn.  And I think the fact that they only beat Auburn 23-20 last time out actually has them undervalued here.   

That was a hugely misleading final as LSU outgained Auburn by 221 yards and racked up 508 total yards on what is a very good Auburn defense.  They also had 42 points and 511 total yards against Florida’s vaunted defense.  You would be hard-pressed finding two better defenses in the country.  Now the Tigers get to go up against what is a weak Alabama defense by their standards.  Alabama has allowed 23 points to South Carolina, 31 points to Ole Miss and 28 points to Texas A&M this season.  None of those offenses compare to the one LSU is going to throw at them. 

No question Alabama also has an explosive offense.  But QB Tua Tagovailoa won’t be 100% after having knee surgery at the end of October.  And there’s an outside shot he doesn’t play.  Either way, this will be the best defense that Alabama has faced this season, and it’s not even close.  LSU gives up just 20.0 points and 315.4 yards per game on the year.  The Tigers still have the same type of dominant defense they always have, except this year they have an offense that can compliment it. 

LSU is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games overall.  The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. Alabama is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Orgeron is 11-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more yards per attempt as the coach of LSU.  Bet LSU Saturday. 

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona State -1.5 

I love the spot for for the Arizona State Sun Devils here.  They opened 5-1, but back-to-back road losses to Utah and UCLA have dropped them to 5-3 on the season.  Now they have had two weeks to stew over those losses and get ready for USC coming to town this week.  They’ll be rested and ready to go and highly motivated for a victory in Tempe Saturday. 

The Clay Helton rumors are swirling at USC after an ugly 24-56 home loss to USC last week.  He is squarely on the hot seat and may be losing his team.  Of course, it doesn’t help that the Trojans are more banged up than most teams in the country.  They are missing key players all over the field on both sides of the ball, which hasn’t helped their cause. 

USC is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season.  They lost to BYU, Washington and Notre Dame and were extremely fortunate to beat Colorado 35-31 as 10.5-point favorites, needing to come back from a 10-point deficit in the final six minutes to escape with victory from the jaws of defeat.  They’ll fall to 1-4 on the highway with yet another loss Saturday. 

Arizona State has one of the best defenses in the country, and that is going to be the difference in this game.  The Sun Devils allow 21.1 points, 358 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season.  USC allows 28.3 points, 426.7 yards per game and 5.9 per play this season.   

I think the bye week is huge for freshman QB Jayden Daniels and his growth.  Daniels has an 11-to-2 TD/INT ratio this season, is averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, and has added 273 rushing yards and three scores. Daniels should be able to find plenty of success against this soft, banged-up USC defense that just gave up 56 points to Oregon last week. 

Arizona State is a tremendous 13-1 ATS in its last 14 home games when playing with two or more weeks’ rest.  The Sun Devils are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games off a road game where both teams scored 31 points or more.  Clay Helton is 0-8 ATS as a road dog of 7 points or less as the coach of USC.  The Trojans are losing by 17.0 points per game in this spot.  The Trojans are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.  Bet Arizona State Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois +14.5 

The Illinois Fighting Illini sit at 5-4 and on the verge of making their first bowl game since 2014.  It is Year 3 in the Lovie Smith era, and he is finally putting his stamp on this program.  I look for the Fighting Illini to continue the momentum they have built over the last 3-4 weeks and to give Michigan State a run for its money Saturday. 

Illinois is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  The run actually started when they trailed 28-0 against Michigan and fought back to make it 28-25 before eventually coming up short.  The Fighting Illini pulled the upset of the season the next week in a 24-23 win as 29-point home dogs to Wisconsin.  And they’ve gone on to prove that loss wasn’t a fluke and to avoid a letdown by beating Purdue 24-6 on the road and Rutgers 38-10 at home. 

Michigan State went just 3-9 a few years ago, and it is having another disastrous season in 2019.  The Spartans sit at 4-4 and are coming off three straight ugly losses to Ohio State (10-34), Wisconsin (0-38) and Penn State (7-28).  Those were three games they had circled coming into they season, and they lost all three in blowout fashion.  I can’t see them getting back up off the mat in time to want to put Illinois away by more than two touchdowns, which is what it’s going to take to cover this inflated 14.5-point spread.  And it’s a sandwich spot with rival Michigan on deck next week. 

As has been the case throughout the years, it’s just tough to lay big numbers with Michigan State because of their offense.  The Spartans only average 21.7 points per game this season and have been a dumpster fire on that side of the ball once again.  And I know Michigan State is coming off a bye, but how excited could they have been on that bye week off three straight losses and their season ruined?  I think Illinois is ‘all in’ this week knowing it has a bye on deck next week. 

Mark Dantonio is 1-9 ATS in home games after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game as the coach of Michigan State.  Dantonio is 1-8 ATS off a loss by 21 or more points as the coach of the Spartans.  Illinois is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games off a game where it committed zero turnovers.  The Spartans are 2-10 ATS in all home games over the last two seasons.  Michigan State is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record. 

Plays against home favorites (Michigan State) - after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games against an opponent that scored 37 or more points last game are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with Illinois Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Stanford -3 

The Stanford Cardinal have done a great job of keeping it together following a tough start to the season.  They have had to start three different quarterbacks due to injuries, and they’ve had some injuries along the offensive line that have forced several freshmen into action.  The bye week came at a great time here as the Cardinal have had two weeks to get healthy and get ready for Colorado this weekend. 

Now, the Cardinal are as healthy as they have been at any point this season.  They sit at 4-4 and have their sights set on a bowl game when it didn’t seem possible when they were sitting at 1-3.  They have gone 3-1 since and got starting QB K.J. Costello back from injury last time out in a 41-31 home win over Arizona.  He makes all the difference for this team as he decided to forego the NFL and come back for his senior season.  Their only loss during this stretch came when they had to start their 3rd-string QB against UCLA. 

Colorado basically has nothing to play for at this point sitting at 3-6 on the season.  The Buffaloes won’t be winning their final three games to make a bowl because they still have to play Washington and Utah.  They have lost five straight coming in going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS.  They are just 1-5 in Pac-12 play and getting outscored by 16.0 points per game.  I think we are getting Stanford very cheap here as only 3-point favorites. 

The Cardinal are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Buffaloes are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine November games.  Colorado is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss.  The Buffaloes are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games.  Stanford is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 November road games.  The Buffaloes are 0-12 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games over the past three seasons.  Take Stanford Saturday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston College -2 

Florida State had their 36-year bowl streak snapped last season with a 5-7 record.  It was the longest streak in college football.  They have no motivation to keep that streak alive now that it was snapped last season.  I have no doubt players are just ready to be done with this disastrous season. 

Willie Taggart was fired over the weekend after an ugly 10-27 home loss to rival Miami.  The Seminoles managed just 203 total yards against Miami and were outgained by 150 yards.  Odell Haggins takes over as interim coach.  And while he’s trying to say all the right things, I just have no doubt players won’t respond.  I expect them to lose this game at Boston College and the regular season finale at Florida to miss out on a bowl again. 

Boston College is really showing some life here down the stretch.  Few teams have been more undervalued than the Eagles.  They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only losses coming at Clemson, to Wake Forest by 3 and at Louisville by 2. 

They beat NC State by 21 and won at Syracuse by 31 in two of their last three games that surrounded the blowout loss at Clemson.  Their offense racked up 532 yards on NC State including 429 rushing.  They added 691 yards against Syracuse and rushed for 496.  Look for their offensive line to dominate Florida State’s defensive line, and winning the battle in the trenches is going to be their key to getting a win here. 

The Eagles know this is their best chance to clinch a bowl game as they sit at 5-4 on the year.  They still have road games coming up against Notre Dame and Pitt to close the season, ending a stretch of four of their final five games away from home.  That makes this Senior Day for them and their final home game, only adding too their motivation. 

The Seminoles are 1-8-3 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record.  Boston College is 10-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses allowing 58% completions or worse over the last three seasons.  Florida State is 1-9 ATS after playing a hoe game over the last two seasons.  The Seminoles are 0-10 ATS off two consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers over the last three years.  The Eagles are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games.  Take Boston College Saturday. 

20* Penn State/Minnesota ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +7 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers will be playing the disrespected card this week leading up to this huge showdown with Penn State.  I guarantee you PJ Fleck has told his players that nobody believes in them after they came out ranked No. 17 in the initial college football playoff rankings.  I think they will be ‘all in’ and that ranking actually takes the pressure off of them from being unbeaten and puts more of the pressure on Penn State in this game as the road favorite. 

Fleck is quickly proving himself as one of the best head coaches in the country.  He went 5-7 in his first season, took them to a bowl and a 7-6 record in his second season, and now has them 8-0 and in the playoff conversation in his third year.  I realize it has come against a soft schedule, but you can only play the teams that are in front of you, and what impresses me is how much this veteran team that returned 16 starters is improving as the season goes on. 

Indeed, the Gophers are 5-0 ATS in Big Ten play this season.  They went on the road and beat Purdue as underdogs 38-31.  They blew out Illinois 40-17 as 14-point home favorites, the same Illinois team that is on a three-game winning streak with a win over Wisconsin.  They crushed Nebraska 34-7 as 7.5-point favorites.  They handled their business at Rutgers 42-7 as 28-point favorites.  And they crushed Maryland 52-10 as 14-point favorites.  It’s not like they are squeaking by teams, outscoring their five Big Ten opponents by 26.8 points per game and outgunning them by 201.2 yards per game. 

Penn State is the team that is the fraud coming in.  The Nittany Lions are 8-0, but they have been outgained in four of their eight games.  They were outgained by Buffalo, Pitt, Iowa and Michigan and fortunate to win all four of those games.  To compare, Minnesota has only been outgained once in its eight games this season.  No team that gets outgained in half of their games should be 8-0. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Minnesota) - after scoring 42 points in two straight games are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Penn State is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games vs. excellent defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game.  The Nittany Lions are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 road games after allowing 9 points or less last game.  Penn State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games off an ATS win.  The Golden Gophers are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games.  Roll with Minnesota Saturday. 

15* Washington/Oregon State Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +10.5 

After losing three of their last four games to Stanford, Oregon and Utah, the Washington Huskies have nothing to play for now.  They had dreams of winning the Pac-12, but those dreams are crushed now.  They best they can do is go to a bowl game at 5-4.  I think they suffer a hangover from their tough 28-33 home loss to Utah last week. 

Oregon State has life and momentum right now.  The Beavers have won three of their last four to improve to 4-4 on the season.  They now have a legitimate shot of going to a bowl game.  It’s a team that has been grossly underrated all season, especially since they got into Pac-12 play.  The Beavers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. 

Most impressively, Oregon State’s last three wins have all come on the road in upset fashion.  The Bears upset UCLA 48-31 as 4.5-point road dogs.  After losing at home to Utah, they went back on the road and topped California 21-17 as 10.5-point dogs.  And last week they went on the road and topped Arizona 56-38 as 4.5-point dogs.  They have covered the spread by a combined 58.5 points in those three games to show just how undervalued they’ve been. 

Now, the Beavers are catching double-digits at home against a deflated Washington team.  The home crowd will be a huge advantage for them here on this standalone Friday night game as fans are finally excited about this program with a chance to get to a bowl.  Head coach Jonathan Smith is doing a fantastic job.  He is a former player here, so fans are even more excited for him and this team. 

Oregon State boasts the best offense it has had in years.  The Beavers are scoring 33.6 points per game and averaging 431.1 yards per game behind a balanced attack that averages 177 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry, as well as 254 passing yards per game.  And Washington’s defense isn’t nearly as dominant as it once was, giving up 25.3 points and 392.2 yards per game in conference play.  It shouldn’t be too surprising considering the Huskies only returned two starts on D this year. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10.5 points (Oregon State) - a good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPPG) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game are 44-14 (75.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Beavers are 31-11 ATS in their last 42 games after covering the spread in four of their last five games coming in.  The Huskies are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 conference games.  Take Oregon State Friday.

15* Heat/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami +8 

No team has been more impressive than the Miami Heat in the first two weeks of the season.  The Heat have gone 6-2 SU & 6-1-1 ATS and have been greatly undervalued night in and night out.  I believe they are undervalued yet again here catching 8 points against the Los Angeles Lakers. 

I realize the Heat are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but this is a deep team that can handle it better than most.  And that is factored into the line too much.  The Heat made easy work of the Suns 124-108 last night and didn’t have to play their starters too many minutes.  They’ll won’t be tired at all as they’ll get up to face the Lakers in Staples Center. 

I think the Lakers are being overvalued now after going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They nearly lost in Chicago last time out, needing to erase a 13-point deficit in the fourth quarter to win as 7-point favorites.  This game will go down to the wire as well.  The Lakers may win, but they will not cover. 

Plays against favorites (LA Lakers) - off two or more consecutive road wins, in a game involving two teams that win 75% or more of their games are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1996.  The Lakers are 5-17 ATS off two or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 41-23 ATS as road underdogs over the last three years.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Heat Friday. 

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets -5 

The Philadelphia 76ers lost Ben Simmons to a shoulder injury in a loss to the Jazz on Wednesday.  He’ll miss at least the next two games, and I’m lining up to fade them in the immediate future.  I think we are getting the Nuggets cheap at home here against the 76ers. 

Denver is off to a 5-2 start this season and coming off a 109-89 home win over Miami.  That was back on Tuesday, so the Nuggets are rested and ready to go working on two days’ rest.  They had the best home record in the NBA last season and continue to have a tremendous home-court advantage this year. 

The 76ers got off to a 5-0 start against a soft schedule but have since dropped two straight road games at Phoenix and at Utah.  Now they’ll actually be playing their 4th road game in 7 days, which is a tough spot for any team in the NBA.  It makes it even worse for them now that they don’t have their floor general in Simmons running the show. 

The home team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings winning by 7, 16 and 19 points.  The Nuggets are 22-11 ATS in home games off a win over the last two seasons.  Denver is 19-7 ATS in home games off an ATS win over the last two years.  Take the Nuggets Friday. 

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Weber State +17 

Weber State has the Big Sky’s best player in Jerrick Harding (21.4 PPG).  The Wildcats also return second-leading scorer Cody John (14.8 PPG) and Israel Barnes (6.5 PPG).  They have a tremendous backcourt and return some key reserves in Michal Kozak (4.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG) and Caleb Nero (6.5 PPG). 

Head coach Randy Rahe has been at Weber State for 13 years, and and last year their 18-15 record resulted in the second-most losses since he has been there.  The Wildcats are a perennial contender in the Big Sky and are primed for a bounce-back season.  I think they open 2019-20 undervalued off last year’s results. 

Utah State is ranked 17th in the country and overvalued.  That was evident in the Aggies’ opener as they actually trailed Montana State by a bucket as 21.5-point favorites with just six minutes remaining.  The close on a 17-7 run to secure a shaky 81-73 victory, which is not good for a veteran team like the Aggies that returned four starters.  They will get everyone’s best shot because of their national ranking, including Weber State tonight. 

These teams play every season and almost every game goes right down to the wire.  In fact, each of the last 11 meetings have been decided by 12 points or less.  That makes for an 11-0 system backing Weber State pertaining to this 17-point spread.  Bet Weber State Friday. 

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Ole Miss -21.5 

The Ole Miss Rebels are coming off a very successful season in head coach Kermit Davis’ first year on the job in 2018-10.  He guided the Rebels to a 20-13 record and a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament, making the big dance for the first time since 2015 and earning Davis SEC Coach of the Year honors. 

Now, Ole Miss returns three starters and a tremendous backcourt.  Back is potential SEC Player of the Year candidate Breein Tyree (17.9 PPG) to run the offense at point guard.  Also back is G Devontae Shuler (10.3 PPG) who shot 51.1% on 2-pointers and 40.2% from 3-point range.  G/F Blake Hinson (8.3 PPG) is back after scoring in double figures 10 times as a freshman.  The Rebels also nabbed four-star prospect Austin Crowley, who stayed at home.  Bryce Williams is a big-time athlete who scored 15.3 PPG and shot 44% on 3-pointers at a community college. 

Arkansas State is picked to finish in the bottom 3rd of the Sun Belt this season.  It’s easy to see why as Mike Balado returns just one starter in Marquis Eaton (11.2 PPG).  The Red Wolves lose leading scorer Ty Cockfield (22.4 PPG) and third-leading scorer Grantham Gillard (10.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG).  They are coming off a 13-19 season and back-to-back disappointing campaigns under Balado. 

I would have to say it’s going to be another disappointing season after seeing Arkansas State struggled to put away Arkansas-Monticello 65-49 in a game where there wasn’t even a point spread.  They only led 28-22 before pulling away in the second half. 

Arkansas State is 1-8 ATS in November games over the last three seasons.  The Red Wolves are 1-9 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last two seasons.  Ole Miss is 24-10 ATS in its last 34 games overall.  The Rebels are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.  Roll with Ole Miss Friday. 

20* AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Oakland Raiders +1.5 

The Oakland Raiders have been undervalued all season.  Despite playing a brutal schedule with five straight games away from home, they have gone 4-4 SU & 5-3 ATS this season.  Give Jon Gruden and his players credit for taking a step forward this season and getting themselves into playoff contention midway through the season. 

While the Raiders have faced the 2nd-toughest schedule in the NFL this year, the Chargers have played the 23rd-ranked schedule.  That’s a difference of 21 spots in strength of schedule.  Yet the Chargers are just 4-5 on the season and on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs. 

I think the only reason the Chargers are favored in this game is because everyone assumes they are going to make a run in the second half of the season like they always seem to do.  They come in having won two in a row to start their run, and while their performance against the Packers was impressive, it was a Packers team that is one of the most overrated in the NFL with a leaky defense.  And they had no business beating the Bears, who outgained the Chargers by 157 yards and missed a last-second field goal. 

The Raiders have been competitive in every game except for their loss to the Chiefs back in Week 2 where they were outgained by 160 yards.  They haven’t been outgained by more than 83 yards in any other game this season.  And they are only getting outgained by 8 yards per game on the season. 

Derek Carr leads the NFL in completion percentage at 71.2% with a 13-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  And Josh Jacobs has given this offense an identity that they haven’t had in years.  Jacobs has rushed for 740 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 4.9 yards per carry.  This balanced attack has been tough for teams to tame here of late as the Raiders have scored at least 24 points in five straight games coming in. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA Chargers) - off an upset win by 14 points or more as a home underdog, after the first month of the season are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet the Raiders Thursday. 

20* Celtics/Hornets TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte +7.5 

The Charlotte Hornets were tabbed as the worst team in the NBA by almost everyone coming into the season.  As a result, there has been value on them in the early going, and there’s no question they are better than expected.  The Hornets are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS this season. 

The Hornets come in having won three straight and having covered four straight.  I think they will be out to prove something tonight against their former teammate in Kemba Walker, who chose the Celtics over them.  Terry Rozier came over from the Celtics to replace Walker, and he’ll be playing with a chip on his shoulder as well. 

I love the way the Hornets are playing team basketball and sharing the rock.  Both Devonte Graham (17.3 PPG, 6.7 APG) and Rozier (16.9 PPG, 5.6 APG) have been the catalysts.  P.J. Washington (15.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG) has been one of the best rookies in the NBA and is shooting 46.7% from 3-point range.  Miles Bridges (13.3 PPG) and Dwayne Bacon (11.1 PPG) are both greatly improved over last year, and Cody Zeller (12.8 PPG, 10.8 RPG) provides some veteran leadership and consistent double-doubles. 

The Celtics come in overvalued after having won five straight since a season-opening loss to the 76ers.  But they have been far from dominant with only two of their wins coming by more than 6 points.  They only beat the Knicks 104-102 as 9-point home favorites and the Cavs 119-113 as 6-point road favorites in their last two games.  The Hornets are better than both those teams and should be able to stay within this 7.5-point spread at home. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Hornets won 124-117 as 4-point dogs and 117-112 as 3.5-point dogs in their last two home meetings with the Celtics.  Roll with the Hornets Thursday. 

15* Temple/USF ESPN No-Brainer on South Florida +2.5 

Charlie Strong deserves a lot of credit for turning around USF’s season following a 1-3 start.  The Bulls have gone 3-1 since with an upset home win over BYU and blowout road wins over UConn by 26 and ECU by 25 to improve to 4-4 on the season.  Their only loss during this stretch came on the road against a powerhouse Navy team. 

Now, the Bulls sit at 4-4 and with a legitimate chance to make a bowl game.  If they are going to go bowling, this is a must-win situation for them because they have some very tough games coming up next against Cincinnati, Memphis and UCF.  Look for the Bulls to handle their business and pull off the upset at home tonight. 

Temple is coming off arguably its three biggest games of the season upsetting Memphis at home, but getting blown out by SMU by 24 on the road and by UCF by 42 at home.  And that was a fluky win over Memphis as the Tigers committed four turnovers to give the game away. 

South Florida has been able to run the ball at will on opponents, averaging 180 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry this season.  And during this run they are averaging 263.3 rushing yards per game 6.5 per carry in their last four games overall.  Now they face a Temple team that has allowed an average of 291.5 rushing yards per game in their last two games against SMU and UCF.  Look for the Bulls to be able to run at will on this Temple defense. 

The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  South Florida has won by 36 and 21 in its two home meetings with Temple during this stretch.  And the Bulls were the only team to cover on the road in this series as they only lost 17-27 as 14-point dogs at Temple last year.  The Bulls want some revenge from that defeat adding to their motivation.  The Owls are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.   

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (USF) - after outrushing its last opponent by 150 or more yards against a team that was outrushed by 125 or more yards in their previous game are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take South Florida Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -2 

The Utah Jazz come in highly motivated for a win Wednesday night.  They are coming off two straight road losses to the Kings and Clippers.  But now they are back home where they are 3-0 this season and winning by 17.0 points per game.  Salt Lake City is one of the biggest home-court advantages in the entire NBA. 

The Jazz also come in rested and ready to go on two days’ rest since last playing the Clippers on Sunday.  They have owned the 76ers at home throughout the years, going 18-4 SU in the last 22 meetings in Salt Lake City. 

The 76ers are 5-1 and overvalued as a result.  They just lost 109-114 at Phoenix in their last road game.  Yes, they are 3-1 on the road this season, but their three wins came by 6 over Detroit, by 2 over Atlanta and by 1 over Portland.  They needed huge comebacks against both the Hawks and Blazers.  They won’t be so fortunate tonight against the motivated, rested Jazz. 

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Utah) - after having lost two of their last three games, a marginal winning tam (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 63-29 (68.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Jazz are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a loss.  Bet the Jazz Wednesday. 

15* Miami (OH)/Ohio ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Miami Ohio +7 

The Ohio Bobcats have been overvalued all season because they were the popular pick to win the MAC this year.  They have disappointed, going 4-4 SU & 2-6 ATS despite playing the 103rd-ranked schedule in the country.  Their inexperience has shown as they returned just 10 starters this year.  The Bobcats continue to be overvalued here as 7-point favorites against Miami Ohio. 

The Redhawks have also gone 4-4 this season, but it has come against the 60th-ranked schedule in the country.  That’s 43 spots tougher than the slate Ohio has faced.  They have had to play road games against Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State, which have resulted in three of their four losses. 

That tough schedule has helped Miami Ohio get ready for MAC play.  They have dominated in MAC action, going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS with upset home wins over Buffalo and Northern Illinois, as well as an upset road win at Kent State.  The fact that they were dogs in all three of those games just goes to show how disrespected this team is and how undervalued they have been after that tough start against that schedule. 

Yes, Miami Ohio lost 16-38 at Western Michigan, but that was one of the most misleading finals in the MAC this season.  The Redhawks outgained the Broncos by 55 yards and held their explosive offense to just 310 total yards.  But they lost the turnover battle 3-1.  They only trailed 16-21 in the 4th quarter but the Broncos tacked on 17 points in the final 7:22 to make the final margin look worse than it really was. 

Ohio has been outgained in five of its eight games this season and is getting outgained by 35 yards per game on the season.  The Bobcats have a leaky defense that allows 446.4 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play against teams that average 398 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  They have given up 39 points to Northern Illinois and 38 points to Kent State in two of their last three games, which are two of the worst offenses in the MAC. 

Miami Ohio is 9-1 ATS after playing a conference game over the last two seasons.  The Redhawks are 10-2 ATS against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Bobcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Ohio is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a bye week.  Take Miami Ohio Wednesday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh +4.5 

Jeff Capel did a great job in his first season at Pitt.  He took a team that went winless in the ACC and with eight wins overall under Kevin Stallings and got them to 14-19 on the season.  Now, in his second season with the team, Capel and the Panthers should make a big leap forward. 

The Panthers return four starters led by guards Xavier Johnson (15.5 PPG) and Trey McGowens (11.6 PPG).  JC transfer G Ryan Murphy should contribute right away.  They also return Au’Diese Toney (7.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG) and Terrell Brown (5.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG) down low and add in UNC Greensboro transfer Eric Hamilton.  Freshman Justin Champagnie is a swingman who is strong off the dribble and can rebound.  He should bring some much-needed scoring pop to the frontcourt. 

The Florida State Seminoles are coming off an awesome 29-win season.  However, they lost six of their top eight scorers from that team and won’t be starting fast this season.  They don’t return a single double-digit scorer as their top two returnees are Trent Forest (9.3 PPG) and M.J. Walker (7.5 PPG).  It’s going to take some time for the Seminoles to gel with all they lost. 

Plays on home teams (Pittsburgh) - first five games of the season, after closing out last season with eight or more losses in their final 10 games, a team that had a losing record last season are 121-71 (63%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

Pittsburgh beat a very good FSU team 75-62 as identical 4.5-point home underdogs last season.  The Panthers are now 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Pittsburgh.  Roll with Pittsburgh Wednesday. 

15* Michigan State/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on Michigan State -2.5 

The Michigan State Spartans went 32-7 last year and made the Final Four.  I completely agree with them being the No. 1 ranked team in the country this season with all that they return.  They are clearly the best team in college basketball to start the season. 

Head coach Tom Izzo welcomes back Big Ten Player of the Year Cassius Winston at point guard.  He averaged 18.8 points and 7.5 assists per game last year and is the heart and soul of this team.  Also back are key contributors in G Kyle Ahrens (4.7 PPG, 2.5 RPG),  F Aaron Henry (6.1 PPG, 3.8 RPG) and F Xavier Tillman (10.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG).  And the Spartans expect key contributions from freshmen G Mark “Rocket” Watts and F Malik Hall. 

I like fading teams like Duke and Kentucky early in the season because they are filled with one and done players and usually start slow.  That will be the case for Kentucky, which loses four double-digit scorers from last season in P.J. Washington (15.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Tyler Herro (14.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG), Keldon Johnson (13.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG) and Reid Travis (11.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG).  Their only returning starter is PG Ashton Hagans (7.7 PPG, 4.3 RPG). 

Michigan State is 26-10 ATS in its last 36 games overall.  Kentucky is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Spartans have won four of their last six meetings with the Wildcats.  Roll with Michigan State Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Hornets +3.5

Most people tabbed the Charlotte Hornets as the worst team in the NBA coming into the season.  As a result, there has been some value in backing them as the Hornets have opened 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS.  They are certainly better than they were getting credit for coming into the year. 

The Hornets are doing a great job of playing team basketball and sharing the ball.  They have six players averaging at least 12.5 points per game this season.  Terry Rozier has been an adequate replacement for Kemba Walker, PJ Washington is one of the best rookies in the NBA, and Devonte Graham, Cody Zeller, Dwayne Bacon and Miles Bridges have all made big jumps this season.  Plus, they still have Marvin Williams and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to lock it down defensively. 

The Indiana Pacers come in overvalued off three straight wins.  Two of those came at home against the Cavs and Bulls, while the other was a road win at Brooklyn.  The Pacers have some serious injury concerns right now playing without their two best players in Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner, plus Domantas Sabonis is questionable. 

The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven against Eastern Conference opponents.  The home team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Hornets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home meetings with the Pacers.  Take the Hornets Tuesday. 

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Toledo -6.5 

The Toledo Rockets are undervalued right now because they lost two straight road games to Bowling Green and Ball State in ugly fashion.  But as usual, the Rockets have a tremendous home-field advantage, and that will be the case again here in a standalone MAC Tuesday night home game.  The Rockets are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season winning by 15.5 points per game. 

Kent State is certainly improved this season, but let’s be honest, they haven’t beaten anyone.  The Golden Flashes are 3-5 this season with their three wins coming against Kennesaw State (by 3), Bowling Green and Akron.  They are 0-5 against everyone else with all five losses by 7 points or more and by an average of 24.8 points per game. 

Toledo will have a massive advantage on the ground in this game.  The Rockets are rushing for 245 yards per game and 5.4 per carry this season.  Kent State gives up a whopping 251 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  I just don’t see how the Golden Flashes are going to get off the field with their run defense.  Toledo should be able to score at will. 

Toledo is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Kent State with all four wins coming by double-digits and by an average of 19 points per game.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Golden Flashes are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a. Winning record.  The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Toledo is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last five Tuesday games.  Bet Toledo Tuesday. 

20* Cowboys/Giants ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +7 

The Dallas Cowboys are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers here Monday night because they are coming off their bye week, and they went into their bye with a blowout home win over the Eagles.  But their bye week advantage is certainly negated some here because the Giants get an extra day of rest as well with this game being played on Monday Night Football. 

The Cowboys had lost three straight prior to that win over the Eagles.  And their other three wins came against the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins.  That was a Giants team in the season opener that wasn’t very good and was starting Eli Manning.  They have been a much better offensive football team since Daniel Jones took over at quarterback, and they are starting to get healthy. 

Jones has led the Giants to an average of 21.7 points per game in his six starts this season.  And keep in mind the Giants have been without Saquon Barkley, Evan Ingram, Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard at various times in those six games.  Now, he’ll have all four weapons healthy and playing in this game Monday night for the first time this season.  This is going to be a dangerous Giants offense moving forward with his Jones’ full compliment of weapons. 

The Cowboys have had offensive line injuries bite them once again this season.  Tyron Smith is back healthy, but both G Zack Martin and T La’el Collins are questionable heading into this game.  And while the Cowboys have put up some good numbers this season, it has come against the league’s 30th-ranked schedule.  The Giants have faced a much more difficult slate and will be out for revenge tonight at home. 

Dallas is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 road games off a home blowout win by 21 points or more.  New York is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games coming in. Pat Shurmur is 14-3 ATS after having lost five or six of his last seven games as a head coach.  Bet the Giants Monday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -2.5 

The Washington Wizards came into the season tabbed as one of the worst teams in the NBA.  As a result, they were undervalued to start the season and remain undervalued right now.  They are 1-4 SU but 4-1 ATS and could easily have more wins than they do. 

Two of their losses came by a combined 3 points to San Antonio (122-124) as 11.5-point road dogs and Houston (158-159) as 8-point home dogs.  They also covered as 9-point dogs in an 8-point loss at Dallas and upset Oklahoma City by 12 as 8.5-point road dogs.  Their only poor performance came at home against Minnesota in the game after the deflating loss to the Rockets.  Now, I expect the Wizards to be highly motivated to get their second win of the season tonight at home against the Pistons. 

The Pistons have already played seven games compared to five for Washington.  Detroit will be playing its 8th game in 13 days to start the season and its 3rd game in 4 days.  Making matters worse for the Pistons is that they are so banged up right now.  They are without starters Blake Griffin and Reggie Jackson.  Now they are without both Derrick Rose and Tim Frazier, the two backup guards to Jackson.  They are in a world of hurt right now due to these injuries and lack of rest. 

The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series, winning by an average of 11.3 points per game.  The home team is also 11-2 SU in the last 13 meetings.  The Pistons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games playing on one days’ rest.  The Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Pistons.  Take the Wizards Monday. 

20* Jazz/Clippers NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4 

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  They want revenge from a 96-110 loss in Utah on October 30th.  But Kawhi Leonard didn’t play in that game, and he is expected to play tonight.  Look for the Clippers to get their revenge in this one. 

The Clippers are 3-0 at home this season outscoring opponents by 10.4 points per game.  They come in rested and ready to go on two days’ rest having last played on Thursday.  Expect a big effort from them here tonight, especially since they have another two days off after this. 

The Jazz just haven’t been very impressive this season.  They are 4-2, but their four wins have come against the Thunder, Kings, Suns and Clippers (minus Leonard).  They also lost to the Kings and lost to the Lakers on the road, going 1-2 in road games with their only win coming by a single point over the Suns. 

The home team has won three straight and five of the last six meetings in this series.  The Jazz are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Plays on favorites (LA Clippers) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, in a game involving two teams that had marginal winning records (51% to 60%) last season are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Clippers Sunday. 

15* Browns/Broncos AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -3.5 

The Cleveland Browns have played the 4th-toughest schedule in the NFL this season.  They have played a brutal stretch of games here of late with five in a row against the Rams, Ravens, 49ers, Seahawks and Patriots who are a combined 32-7 this season.  It’s a big reason they are just 2-5 on the season. 

I believe the Browns are undervalued right now due to their record.  But the schedule gets a lot easier moving forward, starting with this showdown with the hapless Denver Broncos, who are 2-6 this season.  The Browns still believe they can make some noise, and they will be ‘all in’ this week to try and turn their season around and get a victory. 

The Broncos have to be deflated right now.  They led almost the entire way against the Colts last week, but lost on a last-second field goal by a final of 13-15.  They just keep losing close games, but they also have three losses by 8 points or more.  It’s a team that I think will find it hard to be motivated the rest of the way because they know they have no chance of catching the Chiefs in the division, while the Browns still have hope to win their division. 

Now the Broncos will give Brandon Allen his first career start after Joe Flacco went on injured receiver with a neck injury following that loss to the Colts last week.  “Honestly, I haven’t had too much work with him,” conceded Broncos top wideout Courtland Sutton.  That’s a bad sign for the Broncos this week, especially since they just traded away their other top weapon in Emmanuel Sanders.  I just can’t foresee their offense having very much success against Cleveland’s defense this week. 

Plays on road favorites (Cleveland) - off a road loss, in November games are 57-26 (68.7%) ATS since 1983.  The Broncos are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Denver is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games following a loss.  Their downward spiral continues this week against a highly motivated Browns team ready to bust out.  Roll with the Browns Sunday. 

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 

The Seattle Seahawks just don’t have the home-field advantage they used to.  They are 6-2 this season, but both of their losses this season came at home to Ravens & Saints.  Their two home wins this season each came by a single point over the Bengals and Rams.  They haven’t gotten margin at home yet this season, and they shouldn’t be laying 6 points here to the Bucs. 

The Seahawks have played the 23rd-toughest schedule in the NFL.  The Bucs are 2-5, but they have played the 2nd-toughest schedule in the NFL this season.  And they’ve been competitive in basically every game they’ve played.  The problem with them is turnovers.  They have committed 11 of them in their last two games yet still had a chance to win both.  If they just take care of the football, the Buccaneers can beat anyone. 

We saw that when they went on the road and upset the Rams 55-40 as 9-point dogs.  They also upset the Panthers on the road, and only lost to the Saints by 7 on the road.  Last week they lost 23-27 at Tennessee, but they deserved to win that game as they outgained the Titans by 143 yards.  Turnovers hurt them, but refs did them no favors either blowing a play dead that would have been a TD in their favor and changed the outcome. 

The Seahawks allowed a whopping 512 total yards to Matt Schaub and the Atlanta Falcons last week.  This is a bad Seattle defense that ranks 23rd in total defense giving up 376.1 yards per game and 30th in yards per play (6.2) allowed.  Conversely, the Bucs are improved greatly defensively this season, ranking 14th in yards per play (5.4) allowed. 

The Seahawks have a huge game on deck against the 49ers in a division rivalry.  They could easily be overlooking the Bucs here and looking ahead to that divisional showdown against the undefeated 49ers.  The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Now they have to try and get margin here against a Bucs team that is way better than their record would indicate. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Seattle) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a team that is winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tampa Bay) - with a scoring defense that allows 27 or more points per game are 43-17 (71.7%) ATS over the last five years.  Bet the Buccaneers Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Pittsburgh Steelers +1 

The Pittsburgh Steelers are much better than their record would indicate.  They are 3-4 this season, but their four losses have come to the Patriots, 49ers, Seahawks and Ravens, who are a combined 27-4 on the season.  And three of those losses came by 4 points or less, which just shows how close they are to being a 6-1 team.  But because they actually have a losing record, they are undervalued right now and should not be home underdogs to the Indianapolis Colts this week. 

The Colts are 5-2 and are overvalued because of their record.  All seven of their games have been decided by a touchdown or less, so they have been extremely fortunate in close games.  They trailed the entire way against the Broncos at home last week and needed a last-second field goal to escape with a 15-13 victory.  That’s a bad Broncos team, and I think their luck comes to an end this week. 

The Colts have some key injuries here that are getting overlooked.  They will be without their best receiver in T.Y. Hilton due to a calf injury.  The Colts are 0-5 SU without Hilton in the lineup over the last couple seasons. They could be without both LB Justin Houston and FS Malik Hooker, who are both questionable.  I know James Conner is doubtful for the Steelers, but other than him they are relatively healthy. 

I think both offenses are pretty comparable here with backup QB’s in Mason Rudolph and Jacoby Brissett.  However, there is a big advantage for the Steelers on defense in this one.  Pittsburgh ranks 7th in yards per play (5.1) allowed.  Indianapolis ranks 22nd in yards per play (5.9) allowed.  Yards per play is easily the most important stat to determine how good a defense is. 

The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Pittsburgh is 32-20 ATS as an underdog under Tomlin.  The Colts are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in its last nine home meetings with Indianapolis.  Take the Steelers Sunday. 

25* NFL London GAME OF THE YEAR on Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 

The Jacksonville Jaguars have really become a good team once Gardner Minshew took over at quarterback.  They have gone 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in his seven starts with their three losses coming to Houston (by 1), Carolina (by 7) and New Orleans (by 7).  So they have been competitive in every game.  Their four wins have come by an average of 9.8 points pre game. 

Now the Jaguars head over to London determined for revenge from a 12-13 loss at Houston in their first meeting this season.  That was Minshew’s first career start, and he still nearly led the Jaguars to a win.  They came up inches short on a two-point conversion in the closing seconds.  They have gone 4-2 since that defeat and are coming off back-to-back wins by double-digits.  Minshew is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt with a 13-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season. 

Jacksonville is certainly used to this London trip.  The Jaguars have been over to London for seven straight seasons, and fans over there are starting to adopt them as their team.  In fact, I actually think they have a bigger home-field advantage in London then they do in Jacksonville.   

The Jaguars have flown out late in the week to London here recently and have everything figured out that goes along with the trip.  Players won’t be distracted because they are used to it.  And the Jaguars have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four London games despite being an underdog in all four.  They have covered the spread by an average of over 10 points per game in these contests. 

Houston isn’t the same team that Jacksonville faced the first time these teams met.  The Texans are now without their most important defender in J.J. Watt, who suffered a torn pectoral muscle against the Raiders last week.  Their defense was already pretty soft, and now it’s going to be one of the worst defenses in the NFL without Watt moving forward.  Especially since they have cluster injuries at cornerback.  The Texans are also missing their big playmaker in Will Fuller at receiver.  Stats have shown that Watson is a much better quarterback with Fuller on the field than off of it. 

I just haven’t been impressed at all with the Texans here lately as it is.  They are 1-1 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games overall.  They lost 23-30 at Indianapolis and trailed the entire way.  And last week they trailed basically the entire way against Oakland until late in the fourth quarter and were fortunate to win 27-24 as 5.5-point favorites. 

It’s well documented that Deshaun Watson takes more sacks than any other quarterback in the NFL.  A big part of that is poor offensive line play, but it’s also because he holds onto the ball too long and tries to extend plays too often.  Well, the Texans have been at their worst offensively against teams like the Jaguars that get after the quarterback.  The Jaguars rank 4th in the NFL in sacks (29).  They held the Texans to 13 points in their first meeting. 

Bill O’Brien is 0-6 ATS after having 34 possession minutes or more and 24 or more first downs in their previous game as the coach of Houston having never covered in this situation.  The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AFC opponents.  The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday. 

15* Fresno State/Hawaii MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii -1.5 

No team covered more spreads than Fresno State and Jeff Tedford for two seasons running in 2017 and 2018.  As a result, the Bulldogs came into 2019 way overvalued, and bettors just seem to be stuck on the past.  The fact of the matter is this is a rebuilding year for the Bulldogs as they returned only nine starters, including three on offense.  They simply aren’t as good as they were in 2017 and 2018. 

Indeed, Fresno State is just 3-4 SU & 2-4-1 ATS through its first seven games of the season.  Their three wins have come against Sacramento State by 14 as 24.5-point favorites, New Mexico State by 13 as 21-point favorites, and UNLV by 29 as 16.5-point favorites.  Those are two of the worst FBS teams in the country and an FCS team. 

When Fresno State has stepped up in class, they have lost.  They lost their first two games of the season to USC and Minnesota.  Then in conference play they lost 24-43 at Air Force as 3-point dogs and were thoroughly outplayed.  And last week they were upset 31-41 by Colorado State at home as 13.5-point favorites.  They gave up 500 total yards to Colorado State.  Their defense has suffered the biggest drop off as they have allowed 31 or more points four times this year. 

Hawaii is one of the most improved teams in the country.  The Rainbow Warriors are 5-3 this season with their only losses coming to Washington and Boise State on the road, as well as Air Force at home.  They have impressive wins over Arizona and Oregon State in the Pac-12, a dominant 54-3 win at Nevada, and a solid 45-31 win at New Mexico last week. 

I think a big reason we are getting Hawaii as less than a field goal favorite was due to that 45-31 win at New Mexico last week.  That final score was a lot closer than the game really was.  In fact, Hawaii led New Mexico 45-10 with just under eight minutes left in the game.  They pulled their starters, and New Mexico tacked on three touchdowns in the final eight minutes.  It was certainly a misleading final. 

Fresno State’s soft defense that is allowing 31.0 points per game this season will now get a huge test up against an explosive Hawaii offense that is putting up 36.6 points and 488.1 yards per game this season.  Head coach Nick Rolovich has implemented the run-and-shoot offense, and his players are executing it to perfection now.  It’s a veteran Hawaii team that returned 18 starters this year and is in Year 2 of the season. 

Fresno State is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games off an upset loss a home favorite.  The Bulldogs are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 road games off a home loss.  Hawaii is 24-10 ATS in its last 34 games after gaining 575 or more total yards in its previous game.  Jeff Tedford is 0-8 ATS when he total is 63.5 to 70 in all games he has coached having never covered the spread in this situation.  Tedford is also 12-26 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached.  Take Hawaii Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on UCLA -6.5 

The UCLA Bruins have the same feel of last year.  They started terribly last year and finished strong.  And this year they are doing the same thing.  They played as tough a schedule as anyone in the early going and opened 1-5.  But they have since pulled outright upsets over Stanford and Arizona State each of the last two weeks in dominant fashion. 

Now, at 3-5 the Bruins feel like they can make a run at a bowl game.  They still have home games against Colorado and California left which are two games they should win.  And I’m taking them this week against Colorado in a game they only have to win by a touchdown or more to cover this 6.5-point spread. 

Two weeks ago, UCLA got Dorian Thompson-Robinson back at QB from injury after he had miss the previous two games in losses to Oregon State and Arizona.  It made all the difference.  UCLA blitzed Stanford 34-16 on the road and outgained the Cardinal by 257 yards while racking up 455 total yards. 

Last week, I was on UCLA as 4-point home dogs to Arizona State.  They stormed out to a 42-10 lead by the end of the third quarter before pulling their starters.  Arizona State actually outscored UCLA 22-0 in the fourth quarter to make it a misleading 42-32 final.  I think that works in our favor here.  If UCLA had won 42-10 like they should have, the Bruins would be more than 6.5-point favorites here. 

I also think Colorado is getting too much respect for its close 31-35 home loss to USC last week.  Well, that was a USC team in a sandwich spot off a big game against Notre Dame the previous week, and with a game on deck against Oregon.  The Trojans came out flat and it nearly cost them.  But they rallied from a 10-point deficit in the final six minutes to win.  Now, Colorado has to be deflated from that defeat because it was their chance to beat USC for the first time in school history.  I think the Buffaloes now suffer a hangover from that loss. 

It’s not like the Buffaloes were even competitive before that loss to USC, either.  They had gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their previous three games with an upset home loss to Arizona, and blowout road losses to Oregon (3-45) as 23-point dogs and at Washington State (10-41) as 13.5-point dogs.  Simply put, this Colorado team just isn’t very good, going 1-4 in conference play and getting outscored by 15.8 points per game.  UCLA is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in conference play, outscoring opponents by 2.4 points per game. 

Colorado is 0-11 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games over the last three seasons.  The Buffaloes are 1-12 ATS after playing a game where 60 or more points per scored over the last three years.  The Buffaloes are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight November games.  The Bruins are 5-1-2 ATS in their last eight conference games.  Colorado is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 conference games.  Bet UCLA Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets +1 

Wrong team favored here.  The Golden State Warriors are now 2000-1 to win the NBA title.  Let that sink in for a minute.  They are literally the worst team in the NBA right now, and I don’t even think it’s really that close.  They are fade material for the time being. 

No Kevin Durant.  No Klay Thompson.  And now now Stephen Curry.  Plus, Kevon Looney has been out with a hamstring injury, and Draymond Green is battling a back injury.  The Warriors just can’t catch a break.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 127-110 home loss to the San Antonio Spurs last night.  Worse yet, it will be their 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  Their lack of depth will really be felt tonight. 

Meanwhile, the Charlotte Hornets come in on two days’ rest after last playing on Wednesday in a 118-111 road win over the Sacramento Kings.  Most people tabbed the Hornets as the worst team in the NBA coming into the season, but that clearly hasn’t been the case.  And I think they are undervalued for the time being due to the low preseason expectations. 

The Hornets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Charlotte is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Warriors are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Golden State is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games playing on zero days’ rest.  The Warriors are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.  The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Hornets Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Bucks UNDER 225.5 

The Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks are very familiar with one another after playing in a six-game series in the Eastern Conference Finals last season.  They clearly don’t like each other, and this game will be played closer to the vest.  I think it will be a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight as a result. 

Seven of the last eight meetings in this series have seen 222 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  In fact, the Raptors and Bucks have averaged just 206.4 combined points at the end of regulation in those seven meetings.  That’s roughly 19 points less than tonight’s posted total of 225.5, so there is tremendous value with this UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Ole Miss +20 

This is a great spot to fade the Auburn Tigers.  Auburn just suffered its dream-crushing loss to LSU last week.  That was the 2nd SEC loss for the Tigers, who certainly won’t be winning the SEC West now.  I think they suffer a hangover from that 20-23 defeat to LSU. 

Not to mention, it was one of the most misleading finals of the season.  LSU outgained Auburn by 221 yards.  They moved the ball up and down the field on Auburn’s defense with 508 total yards.  But they just couldn’t convert in the red zone, which was the only reason it was even close.  Bo Nix had another terrible game completing just 15 of his 35 pass attempts for 157 yards.  Now Auburn has to try and get back up off the mat and put away Ole Miss by three touchdowns or more.  That’s a lot to ask 

Ole Miss is coming off a bye week and will be rested and ready to go.  It’s an Ole Miss team that is 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall and improving.  Ole Miss lost 17-24 to Texas A&M last time out.  But they were covering almost the entire way in that game as 6-point dogs. 

Texas A&M got a 62-yard fumble recovery TD that gave them their first lead of the game, and they scored another TD with only 2:34 left.  Ole Miss outgained Texas A&M by 65 yards and held them to 340 total yards.  I’ve been very impressed with the improvement of this Ole Miss defense this season under new coordinator Mike MacIntyre.  And the offense is coming around under Rich Rodriquez.  They scored 31 points on Alabama and another 27 at Missouri in their two most recent road games. 

I think the Rebels can go into Auburn and give the Tigers a run for their money this weekend given the favorable spot for the them off the bye week.  And I know I’m going to get max effort out of this Ole Miss team because they sit at 3-5 and are desperate to make a bowl game after missing out on a bowl game by one win with a 5-7 record.  This is kind of their ‘all in’ game this week. 

Ole Miss has only lost one of its last eight meetings with Auburn by more than 18 points.  And that was a 21-point loss a couple years ago.  The Rebels haven’t lost by more than 21 points in any of the last 13 meetings in this series as well.  As you can see, they have pretty much been competitive in every game with Auburn over the last 13 years, especially when factoring in this point-spread range as a level of competitiveness. 

Plays against any team (Auburn) a good offensive team (34 PPG or more) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) after 7-plus games, after a loss by 3 points or less are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Georgia Tech +7.5 

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are just 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS this season.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them.  It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on them, just as I did in their last game in their upset win at Miami as 18-point underdogs.  And now they are coming off a bye week, so they will be rested and ready to go while taking away a ton of confidence from that Miami victory. 

Georgia Tech has been more competitive than a 2-5 team.  They were only outgained by more than 49 yards twice, which came against Clemson and North Carolina.  They were only outgained by Temple by 18 yards in a misleading 2-24 road loss.  They actually outgained Duke by 6 yards in a misleading 23-41 road loss.  And they were only outgained by 12 yards by Miami, so there was nothing fluky about that 28-21 (OT) upset road win over the Hurricanes.  It’s safe to say first-year head coach Geoff Collins is doing a great job, and teams with first-year head coaches benefit from bye weeks more than most. 

No question the Pittsburgh Steelers have been impressive this season with a 5-3 record.  But they aren’t the type of team you want to be laying big points with.  In fact, each of Pitt’s last six games have all been decided by 7 points or less.  They only have one win by more than 7 points this year, and that was a lackluster 20-10 home win over Ohio.  What makes it tough to lay points with Pittsburgh is their weak offense, which is averaging just 21.0 points per game this season. 

Pitt and Georgia Tech have met six times since the Panthers joined the ACC.  The series is tied 3-3, but Pitt’s three wins have all come by 5 points or less.  That’s why getting 7.5 points here with the Yellow Jackets at home is such a tremendous value, especially since they are off a bye week and Pitt is coming off a physical, taxing 12-16 home loss to Miami. 

Pittsburgh is 15-30 ATS in its last 45 road games off a home loss.  The Panthers are 13-29 ATS in their last 42 road games off a game where they committed three or more turnovers.  Georgia Tech is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games off an upset win as a road underdog.  The Yellow Jackets are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS win.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Georgia Tech Saturday. 

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech +17.5 

The is a great spot to fade the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  This is a team that went 12-0 in the regular season last year and made the four-team playoff.  They expected to get back.  Now, after suffering their second loss of the season in a ugly 31-point loss at Michigan last week, their dreams of making the playoff have been crushed.  I think they suffer a hangover effect this week as a result. 

The Fighting Irish catch a Virginia Tech team coming off a bye and coming in with momentum.  Everyone left the Hokies for dead after a 35-point loss to Duke to fall to 2-2.  Since then, they’ve gone 3-0 with an upset road win over Miami and an upset home win over North Carolina.  I think it puts to rest any of the doubts that people had about head coach Justin Fuente. 

A big reason for the Hokies’ turnaround this season has been inserting QB Hendon Hooker into the lineup for that Miami game.  He has run away with the QB job ever since and has led the Hokies to an average of 39.7 points per game in his three starts.  Hooker has a 7-to-0 TD/INT ratio and is averaging 9.5 yards per attempt in those three wins and adds a running element, rushing for 156 yards and a score on 48 carries.  He has everyone on the team believing in him, which is key. 

Notre Dame just hasn’t been that impressive this season.  They were either outgained or only outgained five of their seven opponents by 47 or fewer yards.  The only exceptions were against terrible Bowling Green and New Mexico teams.  They only outgained USC by 47 and Virginia by 5 yards at home.  They only outgained Louisville by 31 yards on the road.  They were outgained at Georgia and outgained by 257 yards at Michigan. 

Plays against home teams (Notre Dame) - a good offensive team scoring 35 or more points per game, off a loss by 21 points or more are 68-32 (68%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Justin Fuente is 10-2 ATS coming off a bye week in all games he has coached.  Take Virginia Tech Saturday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3 

The Chicago Bulls were a popular sleeper team coming into the season.  They were clearly overvalued as they have now been favored in four of their five games, including in all four of their road games.  This team never used to be favored on the road, which shows just how overvalued they were. 

Now, the Bulls are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS and the betting public doesn’t want much to do with them.  It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Bulls tonight.  They have played four of their five games on the road with their only home game coming against the defending champion Raptors.  Now the Bulls get a team they can handle in the Detroit Pistons. 

The Pistons are 2-3 this season with their only two wins both coming against the lowly Indiana Pacers.  Their three losses have come by a combined 35 points.  The Pistons are without their two best players in Blake Griffin and Reggie Jackson, and they could be without Markieff Morris, who is questionable.  Meanwhile, the Bulls are 100% healthy right now. 

Detroit is 5-16 ATS after failing to cover three of their last four games against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  Detroit is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The home team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Take the Bulls Friday. 

20* Navy/UConn ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on UConn +27.5 

Navy is coming off a massive 41-38 home win over Tulane last week to move to 6-1 and put themselves in a great position to play for an AAC title.  I think this is a big letdown spot for the Midshipmen, who will have a hard time getting up for UConn enough to win this game by four touchdowns or more, which is what it will take to cover this massive 27.5-point spread. 

Connecticut is vastly improved this season under Randy Edsall.  They were the youngest team in the country last year, and while still young, Randy Edsall has done a great job of developing his players and getting them to be much more competitive this year.  They are 2-6 SU but have covered each of their last two games in impressive fashion. 

Two weeks ago, UConn outgained Houston by 152 yards but lost 17-24 as 21-point home dogs.  It was one of the most misleading finals of the season as the Huskies should have won that game outright.  And last week they went on the road and blitzed UMass 56-35 as 9.5-point favorites and racked up 539 total yards in the win. 

Navy isn’t the type of team to rub the opponent’s noses in the dirt.  If they get up in this game, they aren’t going to keep trying to pour it on.  Plus, their triple-option offense isn’t built for covering big spreads like this. They are built for long, extended drives on the ground that keep the clock moving.  This is the biggest favorite role the Midshipmen have been in all season.  They were 21.5-point favorites against Holy Cross in their opener to compare.  I think the Midshipmen are being overvalued now due to their 6-1 record. 

UConn is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 November home games.  The Huskies are 12-2 ATS in their last 12 games after three consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers.  Navy is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Huskies will be highly motivated for this nationally televised home game and a chance to pull a huge upset against a 6-1 Navy team.  We’ll get their best effort tonight.  Bet UConn Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Magic UNDER 215.5 

The Orlando Magic are 4-0 to the UNDER this season.  They are a great defensive team due to their length at almost every position.  But they are an atrocious offensive team because they lack shooting.  Look for this game to easily go UNDER the number tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks. 

The Magic rank 29th in the NBA in pace at 99.3 possessions per game.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight and slow this thing down to a snail’s pace.  The Magic rank 29th in offensive efficiency and are shooting just 39.5% on the season.  But the Magic are 3rd in defensive efficiency while holding opponents to 93.7 points per game and 41.2% shooting. 

The Bucks haven’t face a team with the length and defensive strengths of the Magic.  They have played Houston, Miami, Cleveland and Boston with the majority of those teams being guard-led and playing little defense.  The Bucks are a great defensive team in their own right as they are holding opponents to 43.1% shooting this season. 

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with these teams averaging just 201 combined points per game.  That’s nearly 15 points less than tonight’s posted total of 215.5.  There’s clearly some value with the UNDER tonight.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Pelicans OVER 222.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans are an OVER machine and have been ever since Alvin Gentry took over as head coach.  He finally has the youngsters to run the offense he wants, which is get up and down the floor and get up a shot as quickly as possible while playing little defense. 

The Pelicans are 4-0 OVER this season.  They rank 5th in the NBA in pace at 106.8 possessions per game.  They are 6th in offensive efficiency at 110.8 points per 100 possessions, and 28th in defensive efficiency while giving up 116.6 points per 100 possessions.  They are combining with their opponents to average 249.2 points per game on the season. 

While the Nuggets like to play at a slower pace, they won’t have a choice here.  The Pelicans will control the pace playing at home here tonight.  And they get their best player in PG Jrue Holiday back from injury after a one-game absence, which benefits the OVER. 

The head-to-head series history favors the OVER, too.  The Pelicans & Nuggets have combined for at least 227 points in eight of their last nine meetings, making for an 8-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to tonight’s total set of 222.5.  The OVER is 6-0 in Pelicans last six Thursday games.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in New Orleans.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday. 

15* CFB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Georgia Southern/App State UNDER 44.5 

Two teams who love to run the football and who both have good defenses square off Thursday in this Sun Belt showdown between Georgia Southern and Appalachian State.  The clock will be running constantly due to both teams running the football.  This game has all the makings of a low-scoring, defensive battle, especially since it will be windy (17 MPH-plus) with a good chance of rain during game time. 

Georgia Southern runs the triple-option.  The Eagles average 53 rushing attempts for 261 yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  They only average 10 pass attempts per game.  They’ll be up against a very good Appalachian State defense that is allowing 19 points, 326.6 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  The Mountaineers are only giving up 13.5 points, 249.7 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play in their four conference games.  They also only give up 140 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry on the season. 

Appalachian State has a decent offense, there’s no question about that.  They are good at running the football and also run it a lot, averaging 44 attempts for 249 yards per game and 5.7 per carry.  But they have feasted on some bad run defenses this season.  Georgia Southern has a good defense, giving up 342 yards per game and 5.2 per play, holding opponents to 80 yards per game and 0.9 per play less than their season averages.  The Eagles have been very good against the run, giving up 134 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry. 

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.  They have combined for 48 or fewer points in all five meetings, and 44 or less in three of them.  Georgia Southern has averaged just 15.8 points and 234.3 yards per game in their last four meetings with Appalachian State.  The Eagles did hold the Mountaineers to just 288 total yards last year and forced five turnovers in an upset victory. 

Georgia Southern is 9-0 UNDER In its last nine games after allowing 125 or less passing yards in its last game.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Eagles last 17 games off a win by more than 20 points.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Eagles last 10 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Mountaineers last six conference games. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 42.5 to 49 (Appalachian State) - after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games against an opponent after allowing 7 points or les sin the first half of two straight games are 25-4 (86.2%) over the last five seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

15* Clippers/Jazz ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 217 

This huge game between the Clippers and Jazz will be played at a snail's pace tonight.  The Jazz rank 28th in pace this season, averaging just 99.3 possessions per game.  The Clippers are 21st in pace at 102.4 possessions per game. 

Not to mention, these are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  The Jazz are 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 92.0 points per 100 possessions allowed.  The problem for the Jazz is on the other end, where they rank 27th in offensive efficiency at 99.5 points per 100 possessions. 

The Clippers have put up big numbers offensively this season, but they’ve played against some bad defensive teams in the Warriors, Suns and Hornets in their last three games.  I think those gaudy offensive numbers have inflated this total.  The Jazz give up just 91.5 points per game and 39.1% shooting on the season, so the Clippers will have their stiffest test yet tonight. 

The UNDER is 7-0 in Jazz last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last four home games.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Jazz last 17 games following an ATS loss.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

15* Nationals/Astros Game 7 ANNIHILATOR on Washington +124 

The Washington Nationals are simply a team of destiny.  To come back and win that Game 6 after losing three straight at home is just another example of their remarkable resilience.  They came back from two runs down in the 8th to beat the Brewers in the wild card, came back from 2-1 down in the series to the Dodgers to win in five games, and now they are going to come back from 3-2 down in the World Series to win in seven games. 

The Max Scherzer injury that forced him to miss Game 5 is going to turn out to be a blessing in disguise.  It set the Nationals up to have Strasburg and Scherzer pitch their final two games with the season on the line.  After all, the Nationals are now 9-0 in games started by Strasburg and Scherzer this postseason.  Scherzer is 9-2 with a 2.49 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in 14 road starts this season . He is 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in his last three starts. 

Zack Greinke gave up 7 hits and 3 walks in 4 2/3 innings in Game 3 against the Nationals, but he only gave up one run, which is hard to do.  He won’t be so fortunate in Game 7 tonight as the Nationals will jump on him early and often.  Greinke is now 0-4 with a 5.56 ERA in his last seven postseason starts, giving up 21 earned runs and 8 homers in 34 innings. 

The Nationals are 7-0 in their last seven playoff road games.  Washington is 16-5 in Scherzer’s last 21 starts.  The Nationals are 38-15 in Scherzer’s last 53 road starts.  The Astros are 1-4 in their last five World Series home games.  The Nationals are 11-1 in their last 12 meetings in Houston.  Take the Nationals in Game 7 Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +8 

The Washington Wizards have really impressed me this season thus far.  They are 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS despite playing their first three games on the road.  Now they play their home opener here Wednesday and come in on three days’ rest having last played on Sunday, so they’ll be ready to go tonight. 

Washington only lost by 8 at Dallas as 9-point dogs in their opener.  They pulled the 97-85 upset at Oklahoma City as 8.5-point dogs.  And the very next night they gave the Spurs all they could handle in a 122-124 loss as 11.5-point dogs.  The Wizards are playing great team basketball with eight players averaging at least 10 points per game. 

The Houston Rockets are clearly one of the most overrated teams in the NBA in the early going.  They are 0-3 ATS despite playing their first three games at home.  They lost outright to the Bucks, barely beat the Pelicans by 3 as 12-point favorites, and also barely beat the Thunder by 4 as 10-point favorites. 

The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference opponents.  Washington is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 home games after a combined score of 245 points or more.  Roll with the Wizards Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -3 

The Indiana Pacers are one of the worst teams in the NBA.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS with their three losses coming to the Pistons (twice) and Cavaliers.  That’s a Pistons team playing without Blake Griffin, and they were without Reggie Jackson in the second meeting.  And it’s a Cavaliers team that is one of the worst in the NBA. 

The Nets come in on two days’ rest and highly motivated for a win today.  They have opened 1-2, but could easily be 3-0 as both of their losses have come by a single point.  I think we are getting them at a tremendous value as only 3-point home favorites here Wednesday. 

Plays on favorites (Brooklyn) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, first six games of the season, a playoff team from last season who lost four or more of their last five games are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1996. 

Indiana is 7-18 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last two seasons.  Brooklyn is 39-20 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days over the last three years.  The Pacers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Indiana is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The Nets are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games when playing on two days’ rest.  Take the Nets Wednesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5 

The Minnesota Timberwolves continue to get no respect from oddsmakers here as 7.5-point road underdogs to the Philadelphia 76ers.  They have opened 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS this season and are clearly one of the most underrated teams int he NBA in the early going. 

I just don’t trust the Philadelphia 76ers all that much to lay big numbers.  They are 3-0, but two of their wins have come by 6 points or less to the Pistons and Hawks, two teams in the bottom half of the NBA.  The rank just 19th in offensive efficiency and don’t have many shooters, so they are going to go on stretches where points are hard to come by. 

The Timberwolves are taking advantage of their youth this season and rank 11th in pace.  They rank 4th in offensive efficiency, scoring 111 points per 100 possessions.  They are also 11th in defensive efficiency, and it helps that they have a healthy Robert Covington and drafted Jarrett Culver, giving them two of the best wing defenders in the NBA. 

The Timberwolves come in on two days’ rest, so they will be ready to go tonight.  Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday. 

20* Grizzlies/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +12 

The Memphis Grizzlies are a fun team this year because they actually have some scorers now, and they still play great defense.  They are playing great team basketball in the early going as they have seven players averaging at least 10.7 points per game. 

Ja Morant is the real deal, averaging 18 points, 6 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game.  Jaren Jackson Jr. is his sidekick, averaging 17.3 points and 6.7 rebounds.  And I like the role players in Jonas Valanciunas, Dillon Brooks, Brandon Clarke, Jae Crowder, Solomon Hill, Kyle Anderson and Tyus Jones. 

The Lakers are simply laying too many points tonight.  They are overvalued coming off back-to-back wins and covers over Utah and Charlotte at home.  They will be without Kyle Kuzma and could be without Raton Rondo.  And I like the fact that Jaren Jackson Jr. is a great defender and will make Anthony Davis work for everything he gets. 

The Grizzlies are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Lakers, including outright wins as underdogs in their last two trips to Los Angeles.  The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Lakers are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 against teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game by their opponents over the last two seasons.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday. 

15* Nationals/Astros Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Washington +165 

Amazingly, the road team is 5-0 in this series.  The Nationals didn’t deal with the pressure of trying to please their home fans the last three games.  Perhaps getting back on the road here is exactly what the doctor ordered. 

I cashed in Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals as +170 underdogs in Game 2 of a dominant 12-3 victory.  It was the biggest underdog Strasburg had ever been in his career.  And now he’s roughly the same price here Tuesday.  Strasburg is clearly a big game pitcher, going 5-2 with a 1.34 ERA in eight postseason starts while allowing just 7 earned runs in 47 innings with 64 K’s. 

Justin Verlander is 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA in his last four starts this postseason, giving up 14 earned runs in 23 1/3 innings.  He has also allowed a whopping 7 homers during this stretch, and giving up the long ball has been a problem for him all season as he has now allowed 42 homers on the year. 

The Nationals are 6-0 in their last six road games.  Washington is 45-15 in Strasburg’s last 60 starts.  The Nationals are 91-35 in Strasburg’s last 126 starts overall.  Washington is 10-1 in its last 11 trips to Houston.  The Nationals are 4-0 in Strasburg’s last four starts against the Astros.  Roll with the Nationals in Game 6 Tuesday. 

15* Hawks/Heat NBA TV No-Brainer on Atlanta +8 

The Atlanta Hawks are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS this season and one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA to start the year.  They should be 3-0 as they led basically the entire way against the 76ers last night but came up short with a 103-105 loss as 5.5-point home dogs.  They missed a shot at the buzzer that would have won it. 

I actually like the fact that they lost that game because they will come back highly motivated for a victory tonight.  And I’m not concerned at all about the Hawks playing the 2nd of a back-to-back this early in the season because they are a young team with young legs built for it.  They have tremendous young talent in Trae Young (34 PPG, 9 APG), John Collins (14.3 PPG, 10 RPG) and De’Andre Hunter (11.3 PPG) leading the way. 

I think this line is inflated due to Jimmy Butler making his season debut for the Heat tonight following the birth of a child.  Butler has been a cancer in his recent stops in Minnesota and Philadelphia.  The ball sticks to him, which won’t allow the Heat to play the nice team basketball they’ve been playing up to this point en route to a 2-1 start. 

The Hawks are 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Heat.  All four wins came outright as underdogs, and two of the losses came by a combined 4 points.  The Hawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games, and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  Atlanta is 31-16 ATS off a home loss over the last three seasons.  Take the Hawks Tuesday. 

20* Dolphins/Steelers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Miami +14.5 

This line is outrageous.  The Miami Dolphins cannot be catching more than two touchdowns against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Dolphins aren’t as bad as they are perceived to be, and the Steelers are one of the worst teams in the NFL, so they just can’t be laying this big of a number. 

The Steelers are 2-4 this season with their two wins coming against the Bengals and Chargers, who are a combined 2-12.  And their win over the Chargers was very misleading as the Chargers basically gave them two touchdowns with turnovers.  The Steelers only gained 256 total yards on offense against the Chargers. 

And that’s my problem with the Steelers laying this big of a number.  Their offense is horrid.  They average just 20.5 points and 276.5 yards per game this season.  The Steelers rank 28th in total offense this season.  With backup quarterbacks, they have gone to a dink and dunk passing game that will get figured out rather quickly.  They just aren’t going to be putting up points in a hurry. 

My mind was blown last week when it was announced that Ryan Fitzpatrick was going to start against the Bills instead of Josh Rosen, and the line didn’t move at all.  Fitzpatrick is at least worth 3 to 4 points over Rosen, and he has proven that the last two weeks.  He entered late against the Redskins and led the Dolphins on two touchdown drives, nearly leading them to their first victory of the season in a 16-17 loss. 

Then last week, Fitzpatrick did everything in his power to beat the Bills as 17-point road underdogs.  The Dolphins probably deserved to win that game because they outgained the Bills by 76 yards.  Fitzpatrick threw for 282 yards with one touchdown and one pick, while also rushing for a score.  The Bills got a 45-yard onside kick return TD for a score with 1:38 left to make it a misleading 31-21 final. 

I like the fight I saw in the Dolphins in that game.  They are rallying around Fitzpatrick and they clearly aren’t tanking contrary to popular belief.  I’ve seen a team hungry for a victory the last two weeks.  And that certainly won’t change on the bright lights of Monday Night Football.  This team would love nothing more than to get their first win of the season on the biggest stage to quiet their naysayers. 

Plays against home favorite of 10.5 or more points (Pittsburgh) - after having won two of their last three games, in October games are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS since 1983.  Pittsburgh is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  Mike Tomlin is 5-14 ATS against teams that are outscored by 10-plus points per game on the season as the coach of the Steelers.  Pittsburgh is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a bye week.  Bet the Dolphins Monday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4 

The New Orleans Pelicans could easily be 3-0 instead of 0-3.  They led the entire game against the Raptors on the road in the opener before losing by 8 in overtime.  They played the Mavericks tough in their second game and lost 116-123.  And last time out on Saturday they only lost 123-126 on the road at Houston as 12-point dogs. 

The Golden State Warriors haven’t even come close to winning.  They lost 122-141 in their home opener to the Clippers.  And yesterday they got crushed on the road 92-120 by a bad Oklahoma City Thunder team.  So they’ll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. 

The problem for the Warriors is that they don’t have any scorers outside Stephen Curry and De’Angelo Russell.  And Russell isn’t off to a promising start in his first season with the Warriors.  They have no depth, and they really miss Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant.  They also have no inside game as both Kevon Looney and Willie Cauley-Stein are out.  And they play no defense, ranking dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency by a wide margin. 

The Pelicans rank 6th in offensive efficiency and will test this porous Golden State defense.  The Warriors are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  New Orleans is 8-0 ATS in its last eight Monday games.  Take the Pelicans Monday.