20* Heat/Hornets Game 4 No-Brainer on Charlotte -2

The Charlotte Hornets ended a 12-game playoff losing streak with their 96-80 win over the Heat in Game 3.  Now that they have that huge monkey off their back, I look for them to relax a little and play another great game tonight as they are much looser than they have been in the playoffs for a long time.

We saw the same thing happen with the Raptors and Celtics.  The Raptors ended a 7-game playoff skid with a win in Game 2, and proceeded to play their best game of the series in Game 3 in a 101-85 road win.  The Celtics ended a 7-game playoff losing streak with a Game 3 victory over the Hawks, and then came back and won Game 4 in overtime as well.

Charlotte made a nice adjustment by giving 7-footer Frank Kaminsky more minutes and more touches on the block in Game 3.  Kaminsky had played less than 20 points in each of the first two games, but logged 34 minutes in Game 3 as he started alongside Al Jefferson.  That combination worked and I look for head coach Steve Clifford to go back to it.

Charlotte is one of the best home teams in the NBA with a 31-11 record at home, and it has won four of its last five home meetings with the Heat.  Miami has lost six of its last eight road games.  Miami is 1-10 ATS in road games vs. teams who score 103-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.  Charlotte is 12-3 ATS off a blowout win by 15 points or more this season.  The Heat are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Hornets are 22-7 ATS in home games vs. teams with winning records in the 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.  Bet the Hornets in Game 4 Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2

The Boston Celtics really believe they can come back and win this series.  They gained a lot of confidence from their Game 3 win over the Hawks.  They led that game by double-digits for most of the first half, but saw their lead completely vanish before rallying to win it in the 4th quarter behind 42 points from Isaiah Thomas.

The good news is that Thomas is probable and not expected to get suspended from his hit on Dennis Schroeder.  He is the key to this team and clearly figured something out in Game 3 as the Celtics made the proper adjustments on how he should attack this defense.

The Celtics are 20-3 in their last 23 home games, a stretch which saw them sport the fourth-best home record in the NBA in the second half of the season.  Getting them as only 2-point favorites is a gift from oddsmakers today.

Atlanta is 16-34 ATS in its last 50 road playoffs games.  Boston is 7-0 ATS in home games after having lost four or five of its last six games this season.  It is winning by an average of 11.6 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Celtics Saturday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins -102

The Miami Marlins will be highly motivated to avoid the 3-game sweep at the hands of the San Francisco Giants today.  They have lost the first two games of this series the past two days, but I believe they'll get Game 3 to salvage it.

This is more of a fade of Matt Cain than anything.  The right-hander is 0-2 with a 6.45 ERA and 1.499 WHIP in three starts this season.  He has given up 9 earned runs and 4 homers over 12 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Marlins as well.

Cain is 16-31 (-18.5 Units) against the money line in April games in his career.  The Giants are 0-6 in their last six during game 3 of a series.  San Francisco is 1-10 in Cain's last 11 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Marlins Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami Marlins -122

Any time I get the chance to back Jose Fernandez as a small favorite I'm probably going to take advantage.  That's especially the case today considering he's up against the washed-up Jake Peavy of the San Francisco Giants.

Fernandez has been lights out to start his career, going 23-10 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in four seasons.  He comes in having allowed exactly one earned run in each of his last two starts in 2016.

Peavy has scuffled to say the least this season.  He's 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.071 WHIP in three starts, allowing 14 earned runs and 28 hits through 14 innings of work.  The Giants have lost eight of their last 10 games overall and are scuffling at the plate as well.

Peavy is 31-60 (-24.2 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 in his career.  Plays against home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a cold starting pitcher;  (7.50 ERA or worse) over his last 3 starts, with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 10 games are 80-29 (73.4%, +41 units) over the last five seasons.  The Marlins are 8-0 in Fernandez's last eight Saturday starts.  Miami is 10-1 in Fernandez's last 11 starts vs. NL West opponents.  Roll with the Marlins Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5

The loss to the Mavericks in Game 2 really woke up the Thunder.  They won't let it happen again, and I expect Game 4 to play out just as Game 1 and Game 3 did, with the end result being a double-digit blowout victory for the Thunder.

Oklahoma City has won six of its last seven meetings with Dallas.  It has won four of the last six meetings by 13 points or more.  It won by 38 points at home in Game 1 and by 29 points on the road in Game 3.  It took a 33.7% shooting effort as a team for the Thunder to let the Mavs hang around and steal one in Game 2.  That's not going to happen again.

Plays against home teams (DALLAS) - off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more, in April games are 39-13 (75%) ATS since 1996.  The Thunder are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Oklahoma City is 23-8-2 ATS in its last 33 Saturday games.  The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the Thunder in Game 4 Saturday.

20* Heat/Hornets Game 3 No-Brainer on Charlotte -2

The Charlotte Hornets were quietly one of the best home teams in the NBA this season.  They went 30-11 on their home floor, and facing a must-win in Game 3 after falling behind 0-2, I'll back them to get a win and cover against the Miami Heat tonight.

There's no question that this was a one-sided series in Miami.  The Heat shot 57.6% while scoring 123 points in Game 1, and 57.9% while scoring 115 points in Game 2.  It's safe to say that they aren't going to continue this torrid shooting, especially since most of their offense comes from 1-on-1 stuff.

"You have to look at how they're scoring," he said. "They're not running sets that we're having trouble with coverages on. It's one-on-one stuff. It's as simple as this: If Dwyane Wade's got room, he's getting in the paint against anybody."

Look for Clifford to make the proper adjustments heading into Game 3 that will turn this series around for the Hornets and have them avoid their 13th straight playoff loss.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Hornets in Game 3 Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3

It's now or never for the Boston Celtics after falling behind 0-2 in this series to the Atlanta Hawks.  Look for them to come out with a big sense of urgency and to put away the Atlanta Hawks in Game 3, which is their first home game of the series.

The Celtics have dug themselves early holes in each of the first two games.  They shot 23.1 percent and fell behind 17 at halftime before rallying to lose by 1 in Game 1.  They then turned in the lowest-scoring first quarter in playoff history and fell behind 7-24 after the first period in Game 2.

Behind the help of their home fans, look for the Celtics to come out attacking from the opening tip.  A better start is going to help give this team confidence as they try and end a 7-game playoff losing streak.  After all, they are 19-3 at home since January 13, which is the fourth-best home mark in that span.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 69-36 (65.7%) ATS since 1996.  Atlanta is 16-33 ATS in its last 49 road playoff games.  Boston is 32-15 ATS in its last 47 games after scoring 75 points or less in its previous game.  Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Tigers -123

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back ace Justin Verlander as a small home favorite.  But that's the opportunity that's been presented to us today, and we'll take advantage.

Verlander has gotten off to a shaky start in 2016 after finishing very strong after the All-Star Break last year.  He's too good of a talent to be held down for long, and I look for him to have a big performance today to lead the Tigers to victory.

Josh Tomlin is getting way too much respect from odddsmakers as his makes just his second start this season.  Tomlin has posted a 4.62 ERA in 96 appearances over his seven years in the big leagues.  Tomlin is 2-4 with a 5.66 ERA in six career starts against Detroit as well.

The Tigers are 40-19 in Verlander's last 59 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Detroit is 6-1 in Verlander's last seven starts after scoring 2 runs or less in its previous game.  The Indians are 18-44 in their last 62 meetings in Detroit.  Take the Tigers Friday.

15* MLB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh Pirates -137

After losing the first two games of this series to the Padres, the Pirates are going to be highly motivated for a win in Game 3 to avoid the sweep.  I'll back them at a great price here to do just that with ace Gerrit Cole on the mound.

Cole is still in search of his first victory this season despite a respectable 4.22 ERA and 1.218 WHIP through two starts.  He should have no problem getting it against a team he has owned.  Indeed, Cole is 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA in three career starts against San Diego.

Pittsburgh is 27-8 (+17.7 Units) against the money line against NL West opponents over the last two seasons.  Cole is 17-3 (+12.8 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 9-1 in Coles last 10 starts vs. National League West opponents.  Pittsburgh is 36-16 in Cole's last 52 starts overall.  Take the Pirates Thursday.

20* Raptors/Pacers Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -1

A massive weight has been lifted from the Toronto Raptors' shoulders.  They put an end to a 7-game playoff losing streak with their 98-87 win over the Pacers in Game 2.  Now that they have that monkey off their back, look for it to free them up as they get back to playing the way they played during the regular season, which was the second-best team in the East.

I feel like Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan felt that weight the most because they actually haven't played well in the first two games of this series.  Lowry has shot 7 for 26 while fell All-Star DeRozan has gone 10 for 37.  It's been the role players who have played great for the Raptors.  But I have a sneaky suspicion that both Lowry and DeRozan are going to go off now.

The Pacers simply do not have an answer for Jonas Valanciunas down low, either.  He had a franchise playoff-record 19 rebounds in Game 1, and he followed that up with a playoff career-high 23 points and 15 rebounds in Game 2.  He is really the X-factor in this series.

Toronto has the third-best road record in the NBA this season at 24-17 away from home.  The Raptors are 41-20 ATS in their last 61 meetings with the Pacers, including an impressive 8-1 (89%) ATS in their last nine trips to Indiana.  Bet the Raptors in Game 3 Thursday.

20* Pistons/Cavs Game 2 No-Brainer on Detroit +10.5

The Detroit Pistons are showing excellent value once again as double-digit underdogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers.  I was on them in Game 1 with success, and I'm backing them again today for many of the same reasons.

The Pistons proved that their 3-1 season series win over the Cavaliers was no fluke by hanging with them for four quarters in Game 1 in a 101-106 loss as 11-point dogs.  They actually led that game 58-53 at halftime and shot 50.7% for the game.

Detroit simply matches up well with Cleveland.  The Cavs have no answer for Andre Drummond, and the Pistons have the wings in Marcus Morris and Tobias Harris to throw at Lebron James and keep him in check.  The Pistons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Cleveland.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Cleveland is 1-11 ATS versus teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (DETROIT) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 150-95 (61.2%) ATS since 1996.  The Cavaliers are 26-54-1 ATS in their last 81 vs. NBA Central opponents.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Heat UNDER 199

Game 1 between Charlotte and Miami went well over the posted total of 198.5 in a 123-91 victory for the Heat.  They simply could not miss from the floor as they shot 57.6%, including 50% from 3-point range.  Neither of those two things are going to happen again in Game 2.

Charlotte will make the proper adjustments defensively to hold the Heat closer to the 100-point mark, and likely below it.  After all, these were two of the better defensive teams in the league during the regular season.  The Heat ranked 7th in defensive efficiency while the Hornets were 9th.  The Heat also ranked just 25th in pace during the regular season.

Having two days off in between games will also make those defensive adjustments stick more.  The UNDER is 17-7 in Hornets last 24 games playing on 2 days rest.  The UNDER is 21-9 in Heat last 30 games playing on 2 days rest.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Cubs/Cards MLB Early ANNIHILATOR on St. Louis -109

After losing the first two games of this series to the rival Chicago Cubs, the St. Louis Cardinals are going to be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 today to avoid the 3-0 sweep.  I believe they'll get it due to the edge they have on the mound.

Carlos Martinez had a tremendous season last year and he's picked up where he left off, going 2-0 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.077 WHIP through two starts this season.  Martinez enjoyed great success against the Cubs last season, going 2-0 with a 3.06 ERA in his final three starts against them.

Kyle Hendricks is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here due to his solid 1-1 start with a 2.84 ERA this season.  But Hendricks has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-1 with a 4.28 ERA in five career starts against them.  That includes a 6.00 ERA in his last three starts against St. Louis.
 
The Cardinals are 24-7 in Martinez's last 31 starts overall.  St. Louis is 85-38 in its last 123 home games.  The Cardinals are 35-16 in their last 51 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.  Martinez is 15-2 (+13.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last three seasons.  Take the Cardinals Wednesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates -134

I'm willing to lay the juice on the Pirates today due to the massive edge they have on the mound and at the plate against the San Diego Padres today.  This is a Padres team that is 4-9 on the season, including 1-5 at home where they're hitting .185 and scoring 1.7 runs per game.  The Pirates are hitting .295 and scoring 4.4 runs per game this year.

Francisco Liriano has revived his career in Pittsburgh.  He is off to another great start this year, going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA through two starts.  Liriano sports a 2.13 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in six career starts against San Diego as well.

Colin Rea wouldn't start for most teams in the big leagues, but the Padres are using him in their rotation.  Rea is 0-1 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.646 WHIP through two starts this season.

Pittsburgh is 32-12 (+16.1 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -150 over the last three seasons.  The Pirates are 27-6 (+20.3 Units) against the money line against NL West opponents over the last two seasons.  Pittsburgh is 47-17 (+25.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Pirates Tuesday.

15* Cubs/Cardinals NL Central No-Brainer on St. Louis -118

The St. Louis Cardinals are going to be highly motivated for a victory in Game 2 of this series against the Chicago Cubs.  They lost 5-0 to the Cubs and former starter John Lackey last night, so look for them to rebound here with a victory in Game 2.

The Cardinals have the edge on the mound in this one behind Jamie Garcia, who is 1-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.667 WHIP with 19 strikeouts in 15 innings over two starts this season.  Garcia is 2-2 with a 1.95 ERA in six career starts against Chicago as well.

Jason Hammel is off to a good start for Chicago, but he's overvalued as a result.  Hammel has not enjoyed facing the Cardinals, going 2-3 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.529 WHIP in eight career starts against them.

St. Louis is 11-1 (+9.9 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last two seasons.  Bet the Cardinals Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -116

Off three straight losses, the Chicago White Sox will be highly motivated for a victory tonight against the Los Angeles Angels.  They were shut out 7-0 in Game 1 of this series, and they'll come back with a beat down of their own tonight.

It starts with Mat Latos, who is already proving to be an excellent addition to the rotation.  Latos is 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 0.500 WHIP through two starts this season.  He is also 0-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in two career starts against the Angels, both of which his team won the game.

It hasn't been a great start for Matt Shoemaker, who is 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.556 WHIP through two starts for the Angels this season. Shoemaker certainly does not enjoy facing the White Sox, going 0-1 with an 8.43 ERA and 1.687 WHIP in two career starts against them.  He's given up four homers in 10 2/3 innings in this two starts.

Chicago is 13-3 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last two seasons.  Take the White Sox Tuesday.

20* Celtics/Hawks Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Boston +6.5

After coming back from 17 points down at halftime against the Atlanta Hawks to lose 101-102 in Game 1, the Boston Celtics clearly figured something out in the second half offensively.  They scored 67 points after intermission, and they'll use what they learned to try and pull the upset in Game 2.

''We're going to have to just continue to throw different bodies at (Teague) and make it as difficult as possible," Stevens said after Sunday's practice. "We're playing small anyways, so you might have to go even deeper into that. We'll look at it and figure that out over the next 48 hours.''

Stevens is concerned about stopping Jeff Teague, who had 23 points and 12 assists in the opener.  And without Avery Bradley, that job will be more difficult, but I believe they'll be up to the task.  They went 3-3 without Bradley this season, and one of the wins was a 106-93 victory over Atlanta on November 13.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS since 1996.  Boston is 20-8 ATS in road games when playing with double revenge against an opponent over the last two seasons. The Celtics are 34-21 ATS as a road underdog over the last two years.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

20* Rockets/Warriors Game 2 No-Brainer on Houston +13.5

I like the mindset of the Houston Rockets coming into Game 2 of this series with the Golden State Warriors.  They clearly weren't happy with the way they played in Game 1, especially in the first half as they dug themselves a hole that they simply could not climb out of.

"Move our bodies a little bit more," James Harden said. "Everything that happened [Saturday] was because of us. Obviously they're a good team, but we can improve so much more and that's what we we're excited about and we're definitely excited about [Monday's] game."

Houston made 297 passes in the loss, leading to 16 assists and four secondary assists. Golden State made 330 passes, leading to 26 assists and 10 secondary assists.

"You always got to talk about your habits," he said. "All the things you want to do, if you don't talk about them then you won't do them. So you got to continue to talk about them. You got to continue to preach it, whatever your system is, on either side of the ball you got to continue to preach it. You're going to have moments you don't do it, for whatever reason, but you continue to preach it and from there you hope that will do it."

I also like the fact that Stephen Curry suffered an ankle injury in Game 1 and is questionable to play in Game 2.  No question the Warriors are seriously considering resting him, which would be a huge help for the Rockets.  Even if he's limited it's going to help the Rockets either way.

Houston is 24-13 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons, 16-6 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two years, and 33-14 ATS in their last 47 games after committing 23 or more turnovers.  Plays on road underdogs (HOUSTON) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off a home win are 73-41 (64%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Rockets Monday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -135

The Minnesota Twins have rebounded nicely following their 0-9 start to the season.  They are coming off a 3-game sweep of the Los Angeles Angels and will come into this Game 1 against the Milwaukee Brewers with a ton of confidence now.

The Twins will also be sending ace Phil Hughes to the mound.  He's 0-2 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.054 WHIP through two starts this season while striking out 11 batters in 12 1/3 innings.  Hughes went 16-10 with a 3.52 ERA for the Twins in 2014 and 11-9 with a 4.40 ERA for the Twins in 2015.

The Brewers are 14-40 in their last 54 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Milwaukee is 11-41 in its last 52 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  The Twins are 37-15 in their last 52 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Take the Twins Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -4.5

The Miami Heat are a team built for the playoffs with Dwayne Wade and Joe Johnson being two of the best 1-on-1 players in the game.  They can break down a defense when all else fails, and that is an advantage that they'll have over the more team-oriented Charlotte Hornets this entire series, including in Game 1.  Hassan Whiteside is one of the best shot blockers in the NBA, and Goran Dragic has really upped his game down the stretch at the point guard position.

I really like the Heat here as only 4.5-point favorites, making them the smallest home favorites of any team in Game 1 of the eight opening series.  That fact alone makes me believe there's some value, especially considering the Heat are 28-13 at home this season, while the Hornets are 18-23 on the road.

Miami is 22-4 SU at home against Charlotte in the last 26 meetings.  It is outscoring the Hornets by roughly 10 points per game during this stretch as well.  The Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.  Miami is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Heat are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 Sunday games.  Roll with the Heat Sunday.

20* Pistons/Cavs Game 1 No-Brainer on Detroit +11

The Cleveland Cavaliers are simply getting too much respect as the No. 1 seed in the East.  That comes with having Lebron James on your team, but they have no business being 11-point favorites over the Pistons in Game 1 of this series.

Detroit actually won the season series with Cleveland 3-1, outscoring the Cavaliers by 1.75 points per game on average, and winning both road meetings outright.  They match up very favorably with the Cavaliers.  Cleveland's only real answer to All-Star center Andre Drummond's size and physical dominance is benched big man Timofey Mozgov, who has been horrible all season.

The Pistons have several versatile forwards in Marcus Morris and Tobias Harris to throw at Lebron James.  Shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pople is a nightmare matchup for Kyrie Irving as well.  And Reggie Jackson is quickly becoming a star in Detroit and one of the most underrated points guards in the league.

Cleveland is 1-10 ATS vs. teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  The Cavaliers are 26-53-1 ATS in their last 80 vs. NBA Central Division opponents.  The Pistons are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Cleveland.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY Pittsburgh Pirates -137

Juan Nicasio is just the latest starter who is going to benefit from being on the Pittsburgh Pirates' rotation.  They turn projects into gold on the regular, and he's going to prove to be a huge success just like A.J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano and Edinson Volquez before him.

I was on the Pirates yesterday and won thinking no way they lose five straight.  They won, and now I'm thinking they're still motivated after that rough stretch of four straight losses.  So we're really getting them at a discount as only -137 favorites.

Pittsburgh is 20-4 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in home games in day games over the last two seasons.  The Brewers are 1-6 in their last seven games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  The Pirates are 50-18 in their last 68 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Pirates Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Game 1 Line Mistake on Boston Celtics +5.5

I expect the Boston Celtics to give the Atlanta Hawks a run for their money in this series.  It starts with Game 1 as they are 5.5-point underdogs here in a game I believe they are likely to win outright.

After winning the first meeting this season by 13 points at home, the Celtics have lost their last three meetings with the Hawks.  That places them in triple-revenge mode here, and I believe the Hawks will actually relax knowing that they have beaten the Celtics three straight times.

Boston is 54-36 ATS when revenging a loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 15-3 ATS in road games revenging a road loss vs. opponent over the last three years.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 39-14 (73.6%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Celtics Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates -150

Simply put, the Pittsburgh Pirates are not losing again tonight.  They have lost four straight coming into this one, but this streak stops here.  That's why I'll gladly lay this kind of juice for the Pirates at home against the Brewers Saturday.

Milwaukee's Taylor Jungmann has been beaten up this season.  He is 0-1 with an 11.57 ERA and 2.000 WHIP through two starts, giving up 9 earned runs and 14 base runners in 7 innings of work.

Jon Niese has been much better, going 1-0 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.091 WHIP through two starts in 2016.  Niese has allowed just 6 earned runs over 18 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Brewers for a sub-3.00 ERA.

The Brewers are 0-8 in Jungmann's last 8 road starts.  The Pirates are 37-16 in their last 53 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Pittsburgh is 47-23 in its last 70 home games.  Bet the Pirates Saturday.

20* Rockets/Warriors Game 1 No-Brainer on Houston +13

I believe the Golden State Warriors are in for a bit of a hangover in Game 1 of this series with the Houston Rockets.  They just set the NBA record for wins in a season with 73 by winning their final four games, and that grueling stretch to finish will take a little out of them in Game 1.  It will be enough for the Rockets to stay within this 13-point spread.

Don't look now, but the Rockets come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They were in must-win games down the stretch, and they dominated by going 3-0 in their final three games with wins over the Lakers (by 20), Timberwolves (by 24) and Kings (by 35).  They won their last three games by an average of 26.3 points per game.

The Rockets actually played the Warriors reasonably tough during the regular season.  They lost all four games, but three of the four losses came by 14 points or less.  I simply believe given this tough situation for the Warriors and how well the Rockets are playing right now that 13 points is too much.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (HOUSTON) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 149-93 (61.6%) ATS since 1996.  Houston is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Rockets Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blue Jays/Red Sox OVER 8.5

I really like this OVER between two of the best offensive teams in baseball in the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox.  The total has only been set at 8.5 when it should be closer to 10 tonight in my opinion.

In fact, the Red Sox and Blue Jays have combined for at least 12 runs in seven of their last 11 meetings.  They combined for 12 and 15 runs in two of their three meetings already this season.  One of those was a matchup between Rick Porcello and R.A. Dickey, who will square off again tonight.

Dickey is 5-7 with a 4.39 ERA in 17 career starts against Boston.  He allowed seven runs, six earned in 5 innings of that 4-8 loss to the Red Sox.  Porcello is 5-6 with a 5.37 ERA in 12 career starts against Toronto.  He allowed four runs in 6 innings in that game.

The OVER is 5-0-2 in Dickey's last seven starts overall.  The OVER is 8-2-3 in Dickey's last 13 starts when working on five days of rest.  The OVER is 9-1 in Red Sox last 10 games following an off day.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Boston.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates -128

The Pittsburgh Pirates are highly motivated for a victory tonight when they start a 3-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers at home.  They have lost three straight and five of six coming in to drop to 5-5 on the season following their 4-0 start.

Jeff Locke had a sparkling 2016 debut as he gave up just one earned run in 6 innings against Cincinnati.  Locke has certainly enjoyed facing the Brewers as he is 5-4 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in 12 career starts against them.  His counterpart, Jimmy Nelson, has allowed at least 4 earned runs in two of his last three starts against Pittsburgh.

The Pirates are 30-7 (+18.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last three seasons.  The Brewers are 1-8 in their last nine games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Pirates are 50-17 in their last 67 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Pittsburgh is 18-6 in Locke's last 24 home starts.  Take the Pirates Friday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals -140

The Washington Nationals are off to a blistering 7-1 start this season under new manager Dusty Baker.  They have done so behind dominant pitching as they are allowing just 2.4 runs per game on the season.

That dominance should continue tonight against one of the worst offensive teams in baseball in the Philadelphia Phillies, who are hitting just .216 and scoring 2.9 runs per game this season.

Joe Ross was very good as a rookie last year, going 5-5 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in 16 appearances.  Ross is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in 2016 after allowing just one earned run in 7 innings of a 4-2 victory over Miami.

Jeremy Hellickson will get the ball for the Phillies.  He has been awful over the past few seasons, and he went 0-1 with a 6.96 ERA and 1.644 WHIP in two starts against the Nationals last season.  Those were his only two career outings against them.

Hellickson is 10-20 (-16.2 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 in his career.  The Nationals are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Washington is 4-1 in Ross' last five starts.  The Phillies are 12-27 in their last 39 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Roll with the Nationals Friday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -150

I believe we are getting the Toronto Blue Jays at a generous price at home today.  They are off to a slow start at 4-5, but have a chance to get back to .500 today.  I like their chances with Marcus Stroman on the mound.

Stroman has simply owned the New York Yankees, going 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in five career starts against them.  He pitched 7 shutout innings of a 4-0 victory in his last start against the Yankees, which also came at home.

Toronto is 30-11 (+14.5 Units) against the money line after allowing 3 runs or less two straight games over the last 2 seasons.  The Blue Jays are 38-16 in their last 54 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Toronto is 47-23 in its last 70 home games.  The Blue Jays are 9-3 in Stroman's last home 12 starts, and 8-2 in his starts overall.  Bet the Blue Jays Thursday.

15* National League PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -150

The St. Louis Cardinals have rebounded in a big way following their tough 0-3 start to the season.  The Cardinals have gone 4-0 since while outscoring the opposition 41-14 in the process.

Mike Leake wants to make up for his shaky debut in a Cardinals uniform in Pittsburgh.  Expect him to be much sharper in front of his home fans here in St. Louis as they welcome him with open arms.

St. Louis is 45-11 (+25.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 14-2 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in home games after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  Roll with the Cardinals Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on 76ers/Bulls OVER 208

Defense will not be a priority tonight when two teams who eliminated from playoff contention in the 76ers and Bulls meet up in Chicago.  Look for a high-scoring affair from these teams today as a result.

The Bulls are set up right now to play in high-scoring games due to missing Taj Gibson, Derrick Rose and Pau Gasol.  Fred Hoiberg has had to go with smaller lineups, but also lineups that are more optimal offensively.  It has worked as the Bulls have won back-to-back games over Cleveland and New Orleans while averaging 113.0 points per game and giving up 109.0 points per game.

The 76ers have actually played great offensively here of late.  They have scored 102 or more points in four of their last five games.  But they are still a mess defensively, giving up 100 or more in 10 of their last 11 contests.  They have given up 122, 109 and 109 in their last three, respectively.

These teams have combined for 226 and 211 points in their last two meetings this season.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between these teams as well.

Chicago is 14-3 OVER against Atlantic Division opponents this season.  Chicago is 9-1 OVER vs. teams who are outscored by 9-plus points per game on the season over the last two years.  The OVER is 6-0 in 76ers last six vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The OVER is 6-0 in Bulls last six vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (+104)

I fully expect the Washington Nationals to win this game by multiple runs tonight against the hapless Atlanta Braves.  The Braves are 0-7 this season while losing five of those seven games by two-plus runs.

Stephen Strasburg gave up one earned run in 6 innings of a 3-1 victory over Atlanta in his first start this season.  He is now 4-0 with a 0.38 ERA in his last four starts against Atlanta, giving up just one earned run in 24 innings.

Matt Wisler has not enjoyed the same kind of success against the Nationals.  He is 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in four career starts against Washington.

Atlanta is 11-40 (-21.2 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +150 or more over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average of 2.6 runs/game in this spot.  Bet the Nationals Wednesday.

20* Grizzlies/Clippers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Memphis +7.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a 0.5-game behind the Portland Trail Blazers for the No. 5 seed in the West.  They want to get that seed, and they are now 7.5-point dogs to the Clippers Tuesday in a game they need to have.  I'll take the points, especially with the Clippers locked into the No. 4 seed.

The Grizzlies are obviously still trying to finish out the season on the right note as they just lost to the Warriors by 1 as 13-point dogs.  They have had two days off since that loss, so they are chomping at the bit to get after the Clippers tonight.

Memphis is 23-13 ATS off one or more consecutive losses this season.  The Clippers are 0-8 ATS in home games after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 2 seasons.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -129

The Seattle Mariners are desperate for a win tonight.  They have lost four in a row and want to get back in the win column tonight against the Texas Rangers.   I'll back the motivated Mariners at a great price Tuesday.

Wade Miley is 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.216 WHIP in four career starts against Texas.  Derek Holland is 9-4 with a 3.59 ERA in 17 career starts against Seattle.  But Holland is 0-2 in his last two starts against Texas while giving up 12 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings.

Seattle is 16-6 (+10.4 Units) against the money line after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span over the last 2 seasons.  The Rangers are 2-7 in Holland's last 9 road starts.  The Mariners are 12-3 in their last 15 Tuesday games.  Take the Mariners Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle Mariners -158

The Seattle Mariners are highly motivated for a victory tonight after getting swept by the Oakland A's at home in three games last series.  They lost two of those three games by exactly one run.  Look for them to get back on track tonight against the Texas Rangers.

Hisashi Iwakuma is one of my favorite starters to back in the big leagues.  He has gone 47-25 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.087 WHIP in his five years in the big leagues.  Iwakuma is 8-3 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.073 WHIP in 14 career starts against Texas.

Colby Lewis is one of my favorite starters to fade in the big leagues.  He posted a 5.18 ERA and 1.521 WHIP over 29 starts in 2014, and then came back with a 4.66 ERA over 33 starts in 2015.  Lewis has given up at least three earned runs and a total of 10 homers over his last seven starts against Seattle.

Seattle is 16-5 (+12.1 Units) against the money line after batting .200 or worse over a 3-game span over the last two seasons.  Iwakuma is 16-7 (+14.4 Units) against the money line after two or more consecutive losses in his career.  The Rangers are 5-21 in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Mariners are 12-5 in Iwakuma's last 17 starts.  Seattle is 6-0 in Iwakuma's last six starts vs. Texas.  The Rangers are 1-4 in Lewis' last five starts vs. Seattle.  Take the Mariners Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -5.5

The Utah Jazz are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot.  They are one game ahead of the Houston Rockets for the No. 8 seed, and one game behind the Dallas Mavericks for the No. 7 seed.  In their home finale, with what's at stake, look for the Jazz to take care of business in a big way tonight.

The Mavericks are short-handed right now as they are likely to be without Jose Barea again tonight, just as they were last night.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after falling 91-98 to the Los Angeles Clippers last night, and this will be their 3rd game in 4 days as well.  The Mavs are one of the oldest teams in the league and aren't equipped to handle these situations well.

Yes, the Jazz will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back as well, but this will only be their 3rd game in 6 days.  They are coming off a 100-84 blowout win at Denver yesterday that required little effort.  They will be the fresher team, and their much younger legs are more suited to handle this situation.

The Jazz are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games playing on 0 days rest.  Utah is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The favorite is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Jazz Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Atlanta Hawks +4.5

The Atlanta Hawks have a lot to play for right now.  They are currently one game ahead of both the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat for the No. 3 seed in the East.  They can grab a stranglehold on not only the No. 3 seed, but also their second straight Southeast Division title with a win tonight.

The Cleveland Cavaliers look disinterested here down the stretch and just ready for the playoffs.  They have lost back-to-back games with a 109-123 road loss to Indiana, and a 102-105 road loss to Chicago in a game the Lebron James actually played in.  There's a good chance they rest James tonight like they did against Indiana, though.

Few teams are playing as well as the Hawks right now.  They are 17-5 in their last 22 games overall and are coming off two huge wins over both Toronto and Boston by a combined 19 points, two of the top contenders in the East.  Now they want revenge from a 108-110 overtime loss to Cleveland on April 1 just 10 days ago.

Plays on underdogs (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  The Cavaliers are 10-25-2 ATS in their last 37 Monday games.  Roll with the Hawks Monday.

20* Warriors/Spurs NBA TV No-Brainer on Golden State +5.5

The Golden State Warriors want the 73-9 record that would give them the most wins in a single season in NBA history.  They only have to go 2-0 in their final two games to get it, so they are extremely motivated for that record right now.

I like their chances of upsetting the San Antonio Spurs on the road here.  Rarely will you ever get the opportunity to back the Warriors as underdogs, but that is the opportunity we've been given today, and we'll take advantage.

Greg Popovich has said he won't rest his starters against the Warriors even though the Spurs are locked in to the No. 2 seed, but I wouldn't be surprised if he limits their minutes in this one with the playoffs just around the corner.  He has also stated that the 41-0 home record the Spurs are in search of is meaningless.

The Warriors are 23-12 ATS when playing on 0 days' rest over the last two seasons.  Golden State is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games following an ATS loss.  The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  San Antonio is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % of .600 or better.  Bet the Warriors Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -117

I like getting the San Francisco Giants as small home favorites over the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 4 of this series Sunday.  The Giants lost yesterday and will be motivated to win the series 3-1.

Johnny Cueto is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He is off to a good start this season, allowing just one run and six base runners in 7 innings of a 2-1 victory over Milwaukee in his Giants' debut.

Cueto has certainly enjoyed facing the Dodgers throughout his career.  He has posted a 2.79 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in eight career starts against them.  Cueto has only allowed one earned run and nine base runners over 12 1/3 innings in his last two starts against Los Angeles.

Scott Kazmir is 0-9 as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons.  Cueto is 26-9 against the money line in all home games over the last three seasons.  Take the Giants Sunday.

15* T'Wolves/Blazers Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +8.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves continue to battle here down the stretch.  They are coming off back-to-back road wins over the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings, and I look for them to give the Portland Trail Blazers a run for their money here tonight.

The Timberwolves will be highly motivated to avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Blazers.  They are 0-3 against Portland this season, but a closer look shows that all three games were decided by 6 points or less.  They have been decided by 3, 6 and 5 points, and this 8.5-point spread certainly has a great chance of coming into play here.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games are 48-18 (72.7%) ATS since 1996.

Minnesota is 10-0 ATS vs. teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game in the 2nd half of the season this season.  The Timberwolves are 21-8 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs. opponent this season.  The Timberwolves are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Blazers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.  Take the Timberwolves Saturday.

25* NBA GAME OF THE YEAR on Phoenix Suns -1.5

The Phoenix Suns have made backers a nice chunk of change here down the stretch.  They are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games overall and clearly have not quit on their season.  That showed last time out as the Suns won 124-115 in Houston as 12-point road dogs to really crush the Rockets' playoff hopes.

New Orleans is the most depleted team in the league.  Its list of injuries is almost laughable at this point.  But give the Pelicans credit for continuing to fight.  They have actually gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, but that simply has them overvalued coming into this game against the Suns.

However, that long list of injuries will take its toll tonight.  The Pelicans will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA, especially this late in the season.  The Pelicans simply aren't equipped to handle it right now with their short bench.

The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Phoenix is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on 1 days' rest.  The Pelicans are 0-6 ATS in their last six Saturday games.  Bet the Suns Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 9

Any time I can get a Blue Jays total at 9 or lower, I'm going to look for the OVER.  That's the case today, especially with the Red Sox and Blue Jays both throwing back-end starters.  This is going to be a slug fest similar to the one we saw last night with Boston winning 8-7 over Toronto.

Toronto has continue its solid hitting in scoring 5 or more runs in three of its five games this season.  Keep in mind that its first four games were played in pitcher-friendly Tampa Bay against a dominant Rays rotation.  The Blue Jays exploded for 7 runs yesterday in their home opener.

The Red Sox believe they have a lineup that rivals that of Toronto, and that has clearly been on display this season as they have put up at least 6 runs in all three games while averaging 7.3 runs per game in the early going.

Rick Porcello is one of the most overpaid pitchers in baseball.  He went 9-15 with a 4.92 ERA and 1.360 WHIP in 28 starts in his first season in Boston last year.  Toronto has owned Porcello, who is 4-6 with a 5.32 ERA in 11 career starts against the Blue Jays.

R.A. Dickey is now 41 years old and on his last leg.  The knuckleballer gave up 3 earned runs and 8 base runners in 5 innings against the Rays in his season debut, and that's an awful Rays' lineup.  His job gets much tougher against the Red Sox.  He is 5-6 with a 4.07 ERA in 16 career starts against Boston.

The OVER is 28-11-1 in Red Sox last 40 vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 5-1 in Red Sox last six after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game.  The OVER is 7-0-2 in Blue Jays last nine during Game 2 of a series.  The OVER is 4-0-2 in Dickey's last six starts overall.  The OVER is 5-0-1 in Blue Jays last six Saturday games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah Jazz -12

The Utah Jazz are 1.5 games up on the Houston Rockets for the 8th and final playoff spot in the West.  They look to  take another step forward toward reaching their goal of making the postseason with a win over the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.

The Jazz have been playing very well of late, going 10-4 in their last 14 games overall with each of  their last three victories coming by 13 points or more.  They have won five of their last seven at home with their only losses coming to Golden State (OT) and San Antonio (by 2).

The Clippers are going to make the Jazz' job much easier tonight.  That's because they are resting all their starters, including Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, J.J. Redick and Wesley Johnson.  Plus, Jeff Green and Austin Rivers are questionable.  I see no way they can compete with the Jazz tonight considering what Utah has to play for.

The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Utah is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Clippers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 meetings in Utah.  Roll with the Jazz Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -4.5

The Indiana Pacers will clinch a playoff spot with a win today over the Toronto Raptors.  The motivation from missing the playoffs by one game last year is real with this team, and they are not about to waste this opportunity.

Meanwhile, the Toronto Raptors are already locked into the No. 2 seed in the East.  They have nothing to play for, and after losing in Atlanta last night, they will be resting their starters today.  That will make the goal of clinching a playoff spot a lot easier for the Pacers tonight.

"I think we're playing well at the right time," said George, who is 8 of 19 from 3-point range in his last three games. "It just has to continue. We all feel great about this win and the streak we're on, winning in our past three games. It's about capitalizing on this moment now."  Bet the Pacers Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -5.5

It's safe to say the Detroit Pistons are highly motivated right now.  A win Friday and they would clinch their first playoff berth in seven years.  Look for the Pistons to roll the Washington Wizards at home.

Washington is pretty much eliminated from postseason contention.  It would have to win out to make the playoffs, and then get Detroit to lose its last three while moving past nine-place Chicago to return to the postseason.  Plus, John Wall is hurt right now and may not play.

The Wizards are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  The Pistons are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Wizards are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Detroit.  Take the Pistons Friday.

15* American League PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -135

Simply put, the Cleveland Indians have a massive advantage on the mound today over the Chicago White Sox.  I believe they make easy work of the White Sox today because of it.

Chicago has opened 3-1 thanks to dominant starting pitching.  While 4/5 of its rotation is solid, the other 1/5 is a huge weakness.  That would be John Danks, who has posted a 4.71, 4.74, 4.75, 5.70, and 4.33 ERA over the last five seasons, respectively.  Danks is also 5-14 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.446 WHIP in 26 career starts against Cleveland.

Danny Salazar has one of the most electric young arms in baseball.  He went 14-10 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.130 WHIP with 195 K's in 185 innings over 30 starts last season.  Salazar is 3-2 with a 3.56 ERA in six career starts against Chicago.  In two starts against the White Sox last year, Salazar allowed just 2 earned runs while striking out 16 in 12 2/3 innings.

The Indians are 7-0 in their last seven Friday games.  Cleveland is 8-1 in Salazar's last nine Friday starts.  The Indians  are 14-4 in their last 18 during Game 1 of a series.  The White Sox are 18-37 in Danks' last 55 starts vs. American League Central.  Chicago is 8-25 in Danks' last 33 Friday starts.  The White Sox are 1-6 in Danks' last seven  starts vs. Cleveland.  Bet the Indians Friday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, an overtime road win against the defending champion Golden State Warriors.  Now they are unlikely to even show up tonight, and I fully expect them to get blown out of the building.

The Kings have shown up at home all season and will continue to do so tonight.  They clearly have not packed it in as they are actually playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  Indeed, they are 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Adding to the Kings' motivation is the fact that they will be looking to avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Timberwolves after losing each of the first three meetings this season.  Having already beaten the Kings three times, I find it hard to believe the Timberwolves will be motivated for this game at all, especially after just beating the Warriors.

Minnesota is 4-18 ATS after scoring 120 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Sacramento is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a losing record.  Minnesota is 16-36 ATS in its last 52 vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Kings Thursday.

15* Dodgers/Giants NL Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -109

The San Francisco Giants will be playing their home opener today against the hated rival Los Angeles Dodgers.  I look for them to get a win at an excellent price at just over even money.

This is clearly one team that Jake Peavy has gotten up for throughout his career.  Indeed, Peavy is 14-3 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.953 WHIP in 29 career starts against the Dodgers.  He allowed just one run and four base runners over 7  innings in his final start against Los Angeles in 2015.

Alex Wood is 3-12 (-10.9 Units) against the money line in day games over the last two seasons.  The Giants are 8-0 in Peavy's last eight home starts.  San Francisco is 25-12 in its last 37 home games.  The Dodgers are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in San Francisco.  Take the Giants Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -2

The Portland Trail Blazers want to get the No. 5 seed so they can avoid Oklahoma City in the first ground.  They have a great chance of doing it since they trail the Grizzlies by just 0.5 games.  Memphis is in free-fall mode right now and won't be able to hang on.

So the Blazers have a lot to play for, while the Thunder are already locked into the No. 3 seed.  This would be the perfect time for OKC head coach Billy Donovan to rest his starters.  The Thunder will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days, so don't be surprised to see him do just that.

Either way, I like the Blazers here because they have won seven straight at Moda Center and 16 of 18 at home overall.  They have outscored the opposition by 13.7 points per game in their last six there, limiting opponents to 97.8 points per game on 40.9 percent shooting during that stretch.

The Blazers are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Portland is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  The home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The favorite is 21-8-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings.  Roll with the Blazers Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A's -127

The Oakland A's want to avoid falling to 0-3 at the hands of the Chicago White Sox tonight.  They have opened the season with two straight one-run losses, but now with their ace on the mound in Game 3, I look for them to pick up their first victory of the season.

Sonny Gray had a bout with food poisoning that prevented him from starting the past two games.  But he's over it, and was actually upset that he was passed over the first two games as he believes the team was too cautious with him.

Gray is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He went 14-7 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in 31 starts last year.  He'll be opposed by Carlos Rodon, who went 9-6 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in 23 starts last year as a rookie for Chicago.  Rodon gave up 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 4 innings in his lone start against Oakland last year.

The White Sox are 0-5 in their last five during Game 3 of a series.  Chicago is 4-10 in its last 14 games following a win.  Oakland is 4-0 in Gray's last four home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the A's Wednesday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers -1

The Indiana Pacers are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  They are 2.5 games ahead of the 9th place Chicago Bulls, and a win tonight would certainly help.  They are motivated because they missed the playoffs by one game last year and don't want it to happen again.

The Cleveland Cavaliers come into this game way overvalued due to having won four straight.  But with a 3.5-game lead on the Toronto Raptors with four games to play for the top seed in the Eastern Conference, this would be the perfect time for Tyronn Lue to rest his starters.

And rest them he likely will given the situation.  Indeed, the Cavaliers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after beating the Bucks in Milwaukee yesterday.  It would be foolish for him to play his starters right now given their spot in the standings, and this awful rest situation.  That's why the Pacers are favored in this game.

Plays against road teams (CLEVELAND) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after leading their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 72-34 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pacers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 2 days' rest.  Indiana is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

The Orlando Magic have gotten healthy down the stretch and are playing great basketball because of it.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming by 3 points on the road to Milwaukee.  Their four wins have come by 22, 34, 20 and 12 points.

Now the Magic come into this game on two days' rest, so they'll be ready to go.  The same cannot be said for the Pistons, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days after an 89-107 loss in Miami yesterday.  This is just an awful spot for the Pistons.

Detroit is 1-9 ATS after playing two consecutive games as an underdog this season.  The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Orlando is 4-0 ATS in its last four games playing on 2 days' rest.  These three trends combine for an 18-1 system backing Orlando.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +102

The St. Louis Cardinals have opened the season with two straight losses to the Pittsburgh Pirates, including a one-run loss in extra innings yesterday.  They'll be highly motivated to avoid the sweep in Game 3 of this series, and I look for them to get in the win column for the first time in 2016.

There's no question the Cardinals have the edge on the mound in this one behind Mike Leake, who went 11-10 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in 30 starts last year, but 5-6 with a 2.91 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in 15 road starts.  Leake is also an impressive 8-3 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.210 WHIP in 24 career starts against Pittsburgh.

Leake allowed only 3 earned runs in 21 innings over his final three starts against the Pirates last season.  He'll be opposed by Juan Nicasio, who is 1-1 with a 7.45 ERA and 1.965 WHIP in two career starts against St. Louis.  Nicasio is 22-25 with a 4.88 ERA in his career in the big leagues.

St. Louis is 11-1 (+10.6 Units) against the money line off a one run loss versus a division rival over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 20-3 (+16.8 Units) against the money line after a one run loss over the last 2 seasons.  Enough said.  Take the Cardinals Wednesday.

15*  T'Wolves/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +15.5

The Golden State Warriors continue to be overvalued here Tuesday night as they chase down the Bulls' record for wins in a season.  Now they are being asked to lay 15.5-points to the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight, which is simply too much.

The Warriors are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall, so they aren't handling their lofty expectations very well.  Adding to that tonight is the fact that the Warriors will likely be looking ahead to their showdown with San Antonio on Thursday and not give the Timberwolves the attention they deserve.

That has been the case in this series as the T'Wolves have actually played the Warriors very tough recently.  Indeed, each of the last five meetings have been decided by 13 points or less and by an average of 8.6 points per game.  Plus, the T'Wolves come in way undervalued due to going 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, but they will get up for the Warriors tonight.

Minnesota is 16-4 ATS in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season.  They just lost two weeks ago on March 21 to the Warriors 104-109 as 12.5-point dogs.  Minnesota is 8-0 ATS vs. teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game in the 2nd half of the season this season.  Golden State is 2-14 ATS vs. teams who are outscored by 3-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +8.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have no business being this heavily favored over the Denver Nuggets on the road Tuesday night.  They are locked into the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, so they essentially have nothing to play for right now.

That mindset is clearly setting in for the Thunder right now, who are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost to both the Pistons and Rockets on the road, and barely beat the short-handed Clippers 119-117 at home.  They simply cannot be trusted right now, and they've been overvalued on the road all season.  The Thunder are just 12-23 ATS in all road games.

The Nuggets are always more competitive at home with a 17-21 SU record.  I believe they are undervalued coming into this one due to having lost four of their last five.  They play the Thunder tough at home, going 2-2 SU & 2-1-1 ATS in the last four meetings in Denver.

Oklahoma City is 3-11 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season.  The Thunder are 3-11 ATS in road games after playing a road game this season.  Denver is 11-3 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this year.  OKC is 0-6 ATS in its last six Tuesday games.  The home team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take the Nuggets Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz +3.5

The Utah Jazz are showing solid value as home underdogs to the San Antonio Spurs today.  They are fighting for their playoff lives right now as they are currently the No. 8 seed in the West, but just one game ahead of the 9th place Rockets.

The Jazz are playing nearly as well as anyone in the Western Conference right now.  They are 10-3 in their last 13 games overall with one of those losses coming to the Warriors in overtime in a game they should have won.  I'm very confident backing them as dogs here with the way they're playing.

San Antonio backers are crazy given their situation.  They are locked into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, so they have nothing to play for.  You know Greg Popovich is famous for resting his starters without telling anyone, and that could be the case here.  Plus, the Spurs could be looking ahead to their road game against Golden State on Thursday.

Utah is 27-7 ATS revenging a road loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  The Jazz are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 34-16-1 ATS in the last 51 meetings.  Bet the Jazz Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2

Currently in 9th place in the Eastern Conference, two games behind both the Pistons and Pacers for the final two playoff spots, the Bulls are in must-win mode the rest of the way.  I like their chances of picking up a win today against the short-handed Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

Due to their massive injury list, the Grizzlies have been in free-fall mode.  They are just 2-10 in their last 12 games overall, and they have actually lost six straight coming in to this one.  They are limping into the playoffs with no signs of turning it around any time soon.

The Bulls beat the Grizzlies 98-85 at home in their first meeting this season.  They have also won each of their last two trips to Memphis outright as underdogs.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.

The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  They have recent huge road wins over both the Pacers and Rockets while winning two of their last three overall coming in. Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* AL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Seattle Mariners +103

After losing their opener 3-2 at Texas yesterday, I look for the Seattle Mariners to get in the win column for the first time in 2016 due to the edge they have on the mound over the Rangers today.

Hisashi Iwakuma has been consistently undervalued year in and year out as a starting pitcher.  He went 9-5 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in 20 starts last season, and he excelled on the road, going 5-1 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in nine starts away from home.

Martin Perez opens as the Rangers' No. 2 starter, which just shows what kind of dire straights their rotation is in.  Perez went 3-7 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.446 WHIP in 15 starts last season.  Iwakuma is 8-3 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Rangers.

The Mariners are 7-1 in Iwakuma's last eight road starts.  Seattle is 11-5 in Iwakuma's last 16 starts overall.  The Rangers are 3-18 in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Texas is 2-5 in Perez's last seven starts overall.  Seattle is 5-0 in Iwakuma's last five starts vs. Texas.  Bet the Mariners Tuesday.

15* AL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -103

After losing the first two games of this series to the Toronto Blue Jays, I look for the Tampa Bay Rays to avoid falling to 0-3 today as they will clearly be the more motivated team.  I also believe they have the edge on the mound.

Jake Odorizzi is one of many underrated starters for the Rays.  He went 9-9 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 28 starts last season.  Odorizzi was dominant at home, going 5-3 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in 13 starts.

Aaron Sanchez did not fare well on the road last season for the Blue Jays, going 1-2 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.784 WHIP in five starts away from home.  Odorizzi is 2-2 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in six career starts against the Blue Jays as well.

The Rays are 4-1 in Odorizzi's last five home starts.  The Blue Jays are 1-4 in Sanchez's last five road starts.  Tampa Bay is 53-25 in its last 78 home meetings with Toronto.  Roll with the Rays Tuesday.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -104

After losing their opener 4-1 to the Pirates Sunday, I look for the St. Louis Cardinals to pick up their first win of the season due to the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Michael Wacha went 17-8 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.233 WHIP in 31 starts last season.  Jon Niese went 9-10 with a 4.16 ERA and 1.387 WHIP in 29 starts for the Mets last season, but now he's with the Pirates.

Wacha has owned the Pirates, going 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in seven career starts against them.  Niese allowed eight runs and 12 base runners over 5 innings in his lone home start against the Cardinals last year.

The Cardinals are 11-2 in Wacha's last 13 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.  St. Louis is 5-1 in its last six games vs. a left-handed starter.  Take the Cardinals Tuesday.

20* Villanova/UNC Championship Game No-Brainer on North Carolina -2

The North Carolina Tar Heels have been a money-printing machine for me since the start of the ACC Tournament.  I've been on them nearly every game since the start of the tournament.  They have delivered in a big way by going 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.

While I was on Villanova against Oklahoma, I believe this is not a good matchup at all for the Wildcats.  Their one weakness is a lack of depth on the interior.  Now they're going to be going up against the team with the best interior play in the country in the Tar Heels.

Daniel Ochefu (6-foot-11) is the only player in the Wildcats' rotation taller than 6-7.  UNC has made a living in the paint an on the offensive glass with Brice Johnson, Justin Jackson, Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks.  In fact, they have rebounded nearly 50 percent of their own misses on offense in the NCAA Tournament, which is a massive advantage.

Villanova is 4-12 ATS following four or more consecutive wins this season.  The Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. ACC opponents.  The Tar Heels are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 neutral site games.  Bet North Carolina Monday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -121

The Baltimore Orioles have the second-most wins in the American League over the past three seasons.  Yet, they consistently are undervalued by the oddsmakers year in and year out, from their low wins totals to their odds to win the AL East.

I believe we are getting the Orioles at a solid price here on Opening Day as only -121 favorites over the Minnesota Twins.  The Twins are a team that came out of nowhere last season to win 83 games, but they weren't as good as their record.  Regression is expected from them in my opinion.

The Orioles went a solid 49-32 at home last season and scored 5.0 runs per game at home, while the Twins went 37-44 on the road and scored only 4.0 runs per game.  Ervin Santana has not enjoyed facing the Orioles, going 4-5 with a 4.98 ERA in 14 career starts against them.

Chris Tillman had posted a 2.93 ERA, 3.71 ERA and 3.34 ERA in three seasons from 2012 through 2014 before ballooning to a 4.99 ERA last season.  But now as the Ace of this staff, look for Tillman to get back into the 3 ERA range this season after what was an aberration year for him last season.

Tillman is 41-27 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last three seasons.  Baltimore is 101-65 (+24.6 Units) against the money line in home games over the last three seasons.  Take the Orioles Monday.

15* Mets/Royals MLB Season Opener on Kansas City +107

Another season, and another year where the Kansas City Royals are getting no respect.  They are home underdogs to the New York Mets in their opener after beating the Mets in the World Series last year.

Obviously, it's going to be a raucous crowd at Kauffman Stadium as these fans celebrate their World Series title.  And I look for that to help these players in trying to get a victory to open their 2016 campaign.

Edinson Volquez is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He went 13-9 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.308 WHIP in 33 starts for the Royals last season.  He is 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA in his last three starts against the Mets, giving up just 4 earned runs over 18 innings of work.

Volquez is 7-0 against the money line in interleague games over the last two seasons.  The Mets are 2-9 in their last 11 vs. American League Central.  New York is 0-4 in Matt Harvey's last four interleague starts.  The Mets are 1-5 in their last six interleague road games.  The Royals are 35-16 in their last 51 home games, and 20-7 in their last 27 interleague home games.  KC is 9-2 in Volquez's last 11 home starts.  Bet the Royals Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2.5

The Dallas Mavericks are clinging on to one of the final two playoff spots in the Western Conference.  They are only one game ahead of the 9th place Houston Rockets, so they still have a lot of work to do if they want to make the postseason.

The Mavs have stepped up their game down the stretch given what's at stake.  They've gone 3-0 on their last three games overall, which includes road wins over both the Nuggets and Pistons.  They have really picked it up defensively, giving up 89 or fewer points in the three consecutive wins.

The Minnesota Timberwolves look disinterested and ready for their season to be over.  After losing by 20 at home to the Clippers, the Wolves lost on the road by 13 to the Jazz in their last two games.  Look for the Mavs to continue taking advantage of the poor play of the Wolves here of late.

The Mavs are 6-0 SU in their last six meetings with the Timberwolves.  They are going for the 4-game season sweep here today.  Dallas has won three in a row in Minnesota and is 14-3 there in the last nine years.  Bet the Mavericks Sunday.

15* UNC/Syracuse Final Four No-Brainer on North Carolina -9

The North Carolina Tar Heels have been an absolute money make for me since the start of the ACC Tournament.  I've been on them virtually every game since, and they haven't let me down once.  So I'm a bit biased, but at the same time I've said all along that they are the best team in the country, and my pick to win the tournament.

That being said, I still view this game from an unbiased view.  While the price (-9) is a little high, I still feel like the Tar Heels will get the job done by double-digits against Syracuse and get us the cover Saturday.  Here are a few reasons why.

What I love most about the Tar Heels is that they have the best interior game in the country.  Brice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks for the best trio of big men in the land.  They do all the dirty work, and they consistently get easy buckets inside.

In fact, they have rebounded a mind-blowing 46 percent of the Tar Heels' own misses on offense in the NCAA Tournament.  So, essentially the get an offensive rebound on nearly 50 percent of possessions.  That's unheard of, and it leads to extra possessions that other teams simply don't get.

UNC has scored an absurd 1.33 points per possession over its last four games.  Marcus Paige has attempted 66 percent of his shots from the 3-point line in the tournament, and he's made them at a 48 percent clip.  Joel Berry II is a sharpshooter as well and one of the most underrated guards in the country.  This is the best starting lineup in the land, and the Tar Heels also have one of the deepest benches to compliment it.

Give Syracuse credit for making the Final Four, but its run stops here.  In the Orange's wins over Gonzaga and Virginia, they were outplayed for close to 70 of the 80 minutes.  But they got desperate late and turned the games into chaos, abandoning the 2-3 zone.  It worked against both of those teams, but it's not going to work against Carolina.

The Tar Heels have the big men who can hit that shot from roughly 12-15 feet in the middle of the 2-3 zone, so they are going to torch Syracuse's defense all game long.  If the Orange go back to pressing like they did against Gonzaga and Virginia, the Tar Heels prefer to play up-tempo anyways, and they'll torch them there as well.

UNC relies on the 3-point shot the least of any of the four teams remaining.  They only shoot 20 percent of their shots from distance.  They swept the season series with the Orange despite only shooting 22 percent from 3-point range.  A little betting shooting from distance, coupled with dominant inside play, and this one will be a blowout as expected.

Syracuse is not a good shooting team.  In its last two games, it has only shot 36 percent from the floor.  The only saving grace was its work at the free throw line, which saw the Orange convert 34 of 41 attempts the past two games.  An off night shooting will give them no chance of competing with the Tar Heels, and that is likely to occur once again.

UNC is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Tar Heels are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. ACC opponents.  UNC is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 neutral site games.  The Orange are 15-35-2 ATS in their last 52 Saturday games.  Take North Carolina Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -10.5

Given their standing in the Eastern Conference, the Indiana Pacers are in need of a win today against the Philadelphia 76ers.  That's why they will not take them lightly right now.

The Pacers are currently the No. 8 seed in the East, only one game ahead of the 9th place Bulls.  They missed the playoffs by one game last year, but they aren't going to let it happen again.

The 76ers have lost 11 straight coming in.  While they have been a cash cow on the road of late, they have been horrible at home.  The 76ers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games, time and time again getting blown out.

The 76ers are also in a tough spot here as they are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Philly is 0-11 ATS as a home dog of 9.5 to 12 points this season.  Bet the Pacers Saturday.

25* Villanova/Oklahoma College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Villanova -2

The Villanova Wildcats want revenge from a 78-55 loss to Oklahoma in Hawaii back in December.  They were already going to be motivated because it's the Final Four, but any extra edge they can get helps, and that will fuel their fire.

But the Wildcats made just 4-of-32 attempts from 3-point range against the Sooners that day, so they obviously weren't going to win shooting 12.5 percent from distance.  This team has been on fire in the month of March, and they'll continue hot shooting that against the Sooners in the Final Four.

The Wildcats are averaging 82.5 points per game in the NCAA Tournament, shooting 55 percent overall and 46 percent from 3-point range.  They have been one of the best defensive teams in the country all season, too, allowing just 63.6 points per game.  They are the definition of "team" basketball, and I'll gladly take that over Oklahoma, which is way too reliant on Buddy Hield.

Villanova has shown an ability to outscore opponents with its 92 points on 59 possessions against Miami in the Sweet 16.  Then it showed it could grind it out with a 64-59 win over Kansas, which was arguably the most impressive defensive performance of the tournament so far.  That win over Kansas is important because the Jayhawks were the best team in the Big 12 this season, and they even beat Oklahoma twice.

No question the entire focus is going to be on stopping Buddy Hield, and you can bet the Wildcats will make someone else try and beat them.  It worked for West Virginia in the Big 12 Tournament as the Mountaineers held Hield to 1-of-8 shooting.  Look for the Wildcats to deploy a similar tactic in this one.

This game could certainly come down to free throws, and if it does, I like Villanova's chances there as well.  The Wildcats have shot 85 percent from the line in the tournament, including 95 percent over their last two games.  Both Kris Jenkins and Jalen Brunson have yet to miss in the tournament, and Ryan Arcidiacono is 13-of-14 (93 percent).  Against Kansas, they were outscored from the 3-point line, and both teams hit the same number of 2-pointers (17).  Free throws made the difference.

Villanova is 12-4 ATS in non-conference games this season.  Oklahoma is 4-11 ATS after having won four of its last five games this season.  The Sooners are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Oklahoma is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall.  Bet Villanova Saturday.

20* Celtics/Warriors ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Boston +12

The Boston Celtics are still fighting for home-court advantage in the first round in the East.  There are only 1.5 games separating 3 through 6 in the East, but unfortunately the Celtics are in the 6th position right now.  They will keep pushing to try and get home court in the first round.

Of course, they'll already be motivated playing the defending champion Warriors.  That's especially the case after losing in double-overtime to the Warriors at home in their first meeting this season.  The Celtics want revenge, and now they come in way undervalued as 12-point dogs here due to losing two straight.

Yes, the Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but they have thrived in this situation because they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  Indeed, the Celtics are an incredible 39-16-1 ATS in their last 56 games when playing on 0 days' rest.

The Warriors have been extremely overvalued here down the stretch due to their pursuit of the Bulls' record.  They are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall, and they shouldn't have covered against Utah on Wednesday.  They trailed most the way and ended up covering in overtime as 4.5-point favorites.

Boston is 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Golden State with each decided by 5 points or less.  The Celtics are 12-3 ATS off three consecutive road games over the last two seasons.  Golden State is 3-11 ATS in non-conference home games this season.  The underdog is 22-7-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings.  Bet the Celtics Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2

The Milwaukee Bucks are in a great spot tonight.  They are one of the most rested teams in the NBA right now as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  That helped them end a 5-game losing streak with an 11-point victory over the Suns on Wednesday, and now they'll be ready to go again tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Magic, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  The Magic come in way overvalued due to three straight blowout victories over the Bulls, Nets and Pacers.  They are ripe for a letdown tonight, especially given the rest disadvantage they're in.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 12-2 SU in the last 14 meetings.  The Bucks are 27-10 SU & 24-13 ATS in their last 37 home meetings with the Magic.  Milwaukee has gone 22-15 at home this season, while Orlando is just 12-27 on the road.  Roll with the Bucks Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks +5.5

The Dallas Mavericks are fighting to make the playoffs.  They are currently tied with the Utah Jazz for the 7th & 8th spots in the West, but only a half-game ahead of 9th place Houston.  They still have some work to do, but have shown some guts with back-to-back wins over Denver and New York.

The task gets a little tougher tonight against Detroit, who the Mavs want revenge against for losing 96-102 at hom on March 9 less than a month ago.  The Pistons clearly come in overvalued due to winning six of their last seven games with only two of those coming against playoff contenders, and one was against a short-handed Thunder team.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS In the last four meetings.  The Mavs are 4-0 SU in their last four trips to Detroit, winning by 11, 11, 3 and 14 points.  Getting out on the road will help the Mavs keep focus on the task at hand here again tonight in a game they desperately need.

The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games overall.  The Pistons are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Take the Mavericks Friday.

20* Bulls/Rockets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Chicago +5.5

In 9th place in the Eastern Conference, the Bulls have no margin for error going forward.  They are 2 games behind 8th place Indiana and 2.5 games behind 7th place Detroit.  They will be laying it all on the line the rest of the way, especially tonight against the Rockets.

That was the case on Tuesday when they came through with a huge 98-96 road win at Indiana thanks to Jimmy Butler's game-winner.  They were playing the second of a back-to-back after a 2-point loss to Atlanta on Monday, so they showed a ton of heart and guts in winning that contest.

''We needed this win,'' Butler said. ''It was big for us to get a win here on the road against a playoff team. Hopefully this starts a trend for these last eight or nine games.''

The Rockets are being overvalued here because they are coming off a 106-100 win at Cleveland.  But the Cavaliers were playing without Lebron James, so they were supposed to win that game.  And it continued a trend of close games for the Rockets, whose last five games have all been decided by 6 points or less.  There's a very good chance the +5.5 comes into play tonight.

The Bulls beat the Rockets 108-100 at home in their first meeting this season on March 5.  Pau Gasol, Butler and Derrick Rose combined to shoot 51.2 percent for 69 points, 31 rebounds and 21 assists to help Chicago to its third win in the last four games of this series.

Houston is 1-8 ATS vs. teams who shoot 21 or fewer free throws per game this season.  The Rockets are 1-8 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs. opponent this season.  Houston is 10-19 ATS as a home favorite this season.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks -5.5

The Dallas Mavericks are in must-win mode the rest of the way.  They are currently in 9th place in the Western Conference with a 36-38 record on the season.  They are only a half-game behind 8th place Houston and one game behind 7th-place Utah.

Now the Mavericks get to take on the New York Knicks, who certainly aren't playing for anything but pride.  That has shown, too, as the Knicks have gone 2-5 in their last seven games.  Their most recent game was the most concerning as they lost 91-99 at New Orleans, which is playing a bunch of D-League players right now.

The Mavs have won four straight meetings with the Knicks.  The last three victories have all come by 7 points or more as well, and that trend should continue here tonight considering the Mavs simply need this game more.

Dallas is 14-6 ATS after having lost three of its last four games this season.  The Knicks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 1 days rest.  The Mavs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves continue to play for pride as they build for next year.  They have won three of their last four games coming in with their only loss coming to Utah on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They beat the Kings by 9 at home, the Suns by 5 at home, and the Wizards by 3 on the road.

Andrew Wiggins had 32 points against the Suns on Monday, while Karl-Anthony Towns had 27 and 10 rebounds.  ''It's a process, and this can lead into next year,'' Wiggins said. ''We don't want to stop. We play hard for a reason. We're building something here.''

Los Angeles is playing well coming in, but it literally has nothing to play for right now as it's locked into the No. 4 seed in the West.  That realization will sink in with this team down the stretch, making the Clippers great fade material going forward.

Minnesota ended a 14-game losing streak to Los Angeles with a 108-102 road victory on February 3rd.  The Clippers have won seven straight meetings in Minnesota, but four of the last five have been decided by 6 points or less, and there's a decent chance this +5.5 comes into play tonight, though I expect the T'Wolves to win outright.

Minnesota is 8-1 ATS when playing against a good team (win pct. 60% to 70%) this season.  The Timberwolves are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Clippers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  Roll with the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* Hawks/Raptors NBA TV No-Brainer on Toronto +1

The Toronto Raptors should not be home underdogs to the Atlanta Hawks.  I know Kyle Lowry had his elbow drained, but he's still listed as probable and told reporters he doesn't plan on missing any time.  Even if he doesn't go, Cory Joseph is good enough at the point to lead the Raptors to victory.

Toronto still has a shot to catch Cleveland for the No. 1 seed in the East.  It comes in undervalued due to losing three of its last four, but two of those losses came on the road to Houston and Boston, and the other was at home to red hot Oklahoma City.

Atlanta comes in way overvalued due to winning 12 of its last 14 games overall.  But one of those losses was a 96-104 loss at Toronto, which was Atlanta's third straight loss to the Raptors in this series.  Toronto simply has Atlanta's number, and that will continue tonight.

The Raptors are 28-9 at home this season.  Atlanta is 48-71 ATS in its last 119 games off a close win by 3 points or less.  Toronto is 8-1 ATS in home games versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, off a road win by 3 points or less are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Raptors Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are rolling right now, but they are in a very tough spot here, and as a result they should not be 3.5-point road favorites over the Detroit Pistons.  Oklahoma City will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days after beating the Raptors last night.

Detroit is in a great rest situation, coming in on 2 days' rest.  The Pistons have a lot to play for here as they are clinging on to the No. 8 seed in the East.  Plus, the Pistons have been a great bet at home all season, going 24-13 SU & 22-13-2 ATS in 37 home games.

It has been a wise move to fade the Thunder on the road as they are just 12-21-2 ATS as visitors this season.  Soon, the Thunder will start resting their players because they are locked in to the No. 3 seed in the West.  Don't be surprised if their studs play limited minutes tonight in this back-to-back situation.

Oklahoma City is 1-9 ATS in road games off a game where both teams scored 100 points or more this season.  Detroit is 10-2 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more this season.  The Pistons are 11-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season.  Plays on home underdogs (DETROIT) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a home favorite are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Pistons Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Chicago Bulls +7.5

The Chicago Bulls could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  I backed them with success last night as +3 underdogs in a 2-point loss to Atlanta, and I'll back them again tonight because they are catching way too many points (+7.5) against the Pacers again.

Chicago has lost four straight coming in, and that losing streak has it undervalued.  But make no mistake, the Bulls are fighting for their playoff lives right now.  They are in 9th place in the East and 2.5 games behind the 8th-place Pistons, so they still have a chance.  Look for them to come up with a big effort here tonight.

The Pacers are only outscoring opponents by an average of 3.9 points per game at home this season.  They may win this game against the Bulls, but it's going to come down to the wire, and the +7.5 certainly has a great chance of coming into play.

Indiana is 2-12 ATS after playing four consecutive games as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Pacers are 16-30 ATS in March games over the last three years.  Indiana is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games following an ATS win.  The Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -11.5

The Charlotte Hornets are currently the No. 6 seed in the East.  But there are only 2 games separating 3 through 6 in the East, so they have a good chance of getting home-court advantage in the first round.  That's why the Hornets will not be taking the 76ers lightly tonight.

Of course, the Hornets haven't had any problem overlooking the 76ers in their first two meetings this season.  They won by 25 points at home and by 20 points on the road, outscoring the 76ers by a combined 45 points in their two meetings.  That's an average of 22.5 points per game, and another blowout can be expected here.

The 76ers come in overvalued off a 4-game road trip in which they went 3-0 ATS in their final three games.  They only lost to the Warriors by 12 on Sunday, but now they're in a huge hangover spot here.  They will have a hard time getting up for the Hornets at home after playing the defending champion Warriors on the road.

Philadelphia is 0-10 ATS as a home underdog of 9.5 to 12 points this season, getting outscored by 19.0 points per game on average in this spot.  Charlotte is 9-1 ATS after leading its previous game by 15 points or more at the half this season.  The 76ers are 16-36 ATS in their last 52 vs. Eastern Conference.  Charlotte comes in on 2 days' rest, too, so it will be ready to go tonight.  Roll with the Hornets Tuesday.

15* Celtics/Clippers Late-Night BAILOUT on Boston +4

The Boston Celtics still have a lot to play for.  They are currently the #4 seed in the East, just a half-game ahead of 5th-place Miami and a half-game behind 3rd place Atlanta.  They want home-court advantage in the first round at least, and would obviously like to catch the Hawks.

The same cannot be said for the Los Angeles Clippers, who really don't have a lot to play for right now.  They are basically locked into the #4 seed in the West.  They are 5.5 games behind 3rd place Oklahoma City, and 4.5 games ahead of 5th place Memphis.

Because the Clippers' fate has pretty much already been sealed, they have been playing their worst basketball of the season of late.  They are just 3-5 SU in their last eight games overall, and they've been even worse at the pay window.  The Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.

Boston also has a nice rest advantage here.  It will be playing just its 2nd game in 5 days, while Los Angeles will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, its 4th game in 6 days, and its 6th game in 10 days.

The Clippers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Los Angeles is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Clippers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last two seasons.  These four trends combine for a 29-1 system backing Boston.  Roll with the Celtics Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bulls +3

It's now or never for the Chicago Bulls, who are currently in 9th place in the Eastern Conference and 2 games behind the Detroit Pistons for the 8th seed.  With five of their next six games on the road, the Bulls are looking at this home game against the Hawks as a must-win tonight.

Chicago couldn't possibly be more undervalued right now after losing three straight games with two to the Knicks and one to the Magic.  The betting public wants nothing to do with the Bulls, and that's why it is time to jump on them while they're catching 3 points at home.

It's the perfect storm, too, because the Hawks couldn't be more overvalued right now.  They have won eight of their last nine games coming in, so the betting public has been making a killing on them as they've gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as well.  It's certainly time to fade the Hawks.

The Bulls are 24-13 at home this season, while the Hawks are 20-17 on the road.  Plays on home underdogs (CHICAGO) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toronto Raptors +2.5

The Toronto Raptors are showing great value as home underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  This team shouldn't be a home underdog to almost anyone in the NBA considering the Raptors are 28-8 on the season at home.

The Thunder have been overvalued on the road all season, posting an 11-21-2 ATS record in all road games.  They are certainly overvalued coming into this one because of their 7-game winning streak.  After a 3-game home stand, the Thunder will now get back on the road where they haven't had much success all year.

There's no question that the Raptors will be the more motivated team, too.  The Thunder are pretty much locked into the #3 seed now with a 5.5-game lead over the #4 Clippers.  The Raptors still believe they can get home-court advantage in the East as they are 2.5 games behind the #1 Cavaliers.

Oklahoma City is 0-9 ATS in road games off a cover as a double-digit favorite over the last three seasons.  Toronto is 10-1 ATS vs. good shooting teams who make 46% or more of their shots this season.  The Raptors are 8-0 ATS in home games vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.  These three trends combine for a 27-1 system backing Toronto.  Take the Raptors Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Heat UNDER 213

The books have really inflated this total tonight between Brooklyn and Miami.  Both teams have gone over the total quite a bit of late, which is the reason they have been forced to set the total higher than it should be as the betting public will continue to bet the over in games these teams are involved.

The Heat have gone over the total in 8 of their last 9 games overall, while the Nets have gone over the total in 5 of their last 7.  But to give you a feel for how this total is inflated, let's look at other totals for these teams.  The Nets haven't had a total set of more than 213 points in any of their last 21 games.  The Heat haven't had a total set of more than 210.5 points in any of their last 15 games with the last one higher than 213 being against the Warriors on February 24.

The head-to-head history in this series also shows that this total is inflated.  The Nets and Heat have combined for 202 or fewer points in 30 of their last 31 meetings.  They have only topped this 213-point total once in their last 38 games, making for a 37-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* ND/UNC Elite 8 No-Brainer on North Carolina -9.5

I've been on the North Carolina Tar Heels since the beginning of the ACC Tournament.  They haven't once let me down since then, and they aren't about to in the Elite 8 against overmatched Notre Dame.

UNC is the most complete team left in the tournament with zero weaknesses.  My favorite thing about the Tar Heels is that they are dominant inside.  They have the best interior game of any team in the country, which means great rebounding, easy buckets, and 2nd chance points.

The Tar Heels have won eight straight games coming in.  All eight were against NCAA Tournament competition.  That includes a 78-47 blowout of Notre Dame on a neutral court already.  They don't have to win by 31 today, just 10 to cover this number, and that won't be a problem.

Notre Dame is 0-6 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season.  The Fighting Irish are extremely lucky to be here as they've won in the final seconds of all three games in the tournament so far.  Their luck runs out today.  Bet North Carolina Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +21.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are looking at this contest like their championship game.  They will be giving their best effort to beat the defending champion Warriors, who are looking to set an NBA record for wins in the season.  That effort will be good enough to cover this massive 21.5-point spread.

It has certainly been a profitable investment to back the 76ers of late.  They are 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes a 1-point loss at Denver as 9-point dogs, and a 3-point loss at Portland as 15-point dogs in their last two games.

Teams fail to take the 76ers seriously, and that mindset will cost the Warriors tonight as they don't put them away by 22-plus points, which is what it's going to take to cover this spread.  The Warriors are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall, consistently overvalued due to the record they are trying to break.

The Warriors won each of the last two meetings, but they both went down to the wire.  The 76ers lost by 3 at home and by 5 on the road in their last two meetings.  They were a combined 32-point underdog in those two contests as well.  Philly is a perfect 9-0 ATS in road games off a loss by 6 points or less this season.  Roll with the 76ers Sunday.

15* Syracuse/Virginia Elite 8 ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse +8

The Virginia Cavaliers are way overvalued after beating Iowa State in the Sweet 16.  They got off to a 17-3 lead, but actually were outscored by the Cyclones the rest of the way.  Some shady officiating aided their win as well.

Now, the Cavaliers are 8-point favorites over the Syracuse Orange.  Syracuse is a team that has the length to defend Virginia, unlike Iowa State.  The Orange will present plenty of problems for the Cavaliers, who only have one day to prepare for this zone.

These teams met once this season with Virginia winning 73-65 at home as 9.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread.  There's a very good chance this game is decided by 8 points or less in the rematch, especially since it's on a neutral court he 2nd time around.

Syracuse is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games when playing with one or less days' rest over the last two seasons.  The Orange are 9-1 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or less in two straight games over the last three years.  Take Syracuse Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Hornets -3

The Charlotte Hornets (41-31) have a lot more to play for right now than the Milwaukee Bucks (30-43).  The Hornets are in 6th place in the East, but only 1.5 games behind the Hawks for the No. 3 seed.  They will be up for tonight's game, while the Bucks will not.

Both the Hornets and Bucks played road games last night and lost to the Pistons and Hawks, respectively.  But the Hornets are a much deeper team than the Bucks, so it won't affect them as much.

Also, the Hornets had two days off before playing yesterday, so they will be the fresher team anyways.  The Bucks will not only be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but also their 5th game in 7 days.  They have lost each of their last four games and have rarely been competitive.

Plays on road favorites (CHARLOTTE) - an explosive offensive team (at least 102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 110 points or more are 50-20 (71.4%) ATS since 1996.  The road team is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings, and Charlotte is 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Milwaukee.  Take the Hornets Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -4

The Chicago Bulls are in desperate times right now.  They are currently in 9th place in the East, a full two games behind the Detroit Pistons for 8th place.  They cannot afford many more losses right now, especially not against a team like Orlando.

This is a good spot for the Bulls, who come in on one days' rest.  Orlando will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after losing 97-108 in Miami last night.  The Magic will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days, so they are running on fumes right now.

Making matters worse for the Magic is that they are not healthy right now.  They have lost six straight games coming in, and a big reason for that is they've been without Nikola Vucevic.  But both Victor Oladipo and Ersan Ilyasova are questionable to play tonight as well.

Chicago is 34-18 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Orlando is 2-11 ATS in Saturday home games over the last three years.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a road loss against a division rival are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Bulls Saturday.

20* Oklahoma/Oregon Elite 8 No-Brainer on Oregon -1.5

The Oregon Ducks have been getting a lot of grief in this tournament, but they have proven themselves to be the real deal.  The Pac-12 did not show well in the tournament, but the Ducks are far and away the best team in the conference, and that is proving to be the case in the NCAA Tournament.

Now the Ducks will prove it in the Elite 8 once again against Oklahoma.  They are coming off a 14-point win over Duke in an absolutely dominant showing.  It helps that they have a nice home-court advantage that game and this one will be played on the West Coast in Anaheim.

Both teams are elite offensively, but the difference in this game is going to be defense, and there's no doubting that the Ducks are the better defensive team.  Dating back to the Pac-12 Championship, they have held their last four opponents to an average of 60.3 points per game.  They have won 11 straight games coming in.

Oregon is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 off four straight games where it committed 11 or fewer turnovers.Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS vs. excellent ball handling teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Sooners are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Ducks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games.  Oregon is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Big 12 opponents.  The Ducks are 53-24-3 ATS in their last 80 games following a ATS win.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

20* UNC/Indiana Side & Total PARLAY on UNC -5.5/UNDER 159

Reasons for North Carolina:

The Tar Heels are the lone exception in terms of ACC teams being overrated coming into the Sweet 16.  There are six ACC teams in the Sweet 16, and they have a 12-1 record overall.  But the Tar Heels are the only team that I believe is legit.

In fact, I picked them to win the NCAA Tournament because they are the only team that I believe has no weaknesses.  They have the best post play of any team in the tournament behind Brice Johnson, Isaiah Hicks and Kennedy Meeks, and they have two of the best guards in the big dance in Joel Berry II and Marcus Paige.  They also go deep on the bench in came anyone gets in foul trouble.

Indiana is getting a lot of love right now for its win over Kentucky, but the fact of the matter is that the Wildcats simply had an off night.  Give the Hoosiers some credit for winning that game, but now they'll be up against the best team they have faced all season in the Tar Heels.

Where this game is going to be won is in the paint.  The only way to stop Carolina is to be able to stop them inside, but Indiana isn't built to do that.  Teams have been torching the Hoosiers all year in the paint, and that won't change in this match-up.  I'll gladly side with the team that is going to get easy buckets inside and dominate the glass than the one that has to rely on outside shooting to win games, which is Indiana.

The Hoosiers also have some key injuries that they'll have to overcome in this one.  Robert Johnson and Juwan Morgan were both injured and knocked out of the game against Kentucky.  While both are probable to play Friday, I have to question their effectiveness, especially Johnson who looked like he couldn't move his shoulder at all.

UNC is 7-0 in its last seven games with all seven victories coming against NCAA Tournament teams, and four of those coming by 16 points or more.  The Hoosiers are 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games following a ATS win.  Indiana is 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. ACC teams.  Take North Carolina Friday.

Reasons for the UNDER:

Admittedly, Indiana has been better defensively as the season has gone on.  The Hoosiers wound up finishing 3rd in defensive efficiency in the Big Ten, and they held Kentucky to less than a point per possession.  It was an off night for the Wildcats, but impressive nonetheless.

While I do think UNC will score plenty of points to cover, I don't believe it will top 80 points in this one.  The key will be its defense holding Indiana to 70 or less, which I think is a fair assumption.  The Tar Heels were underrated defensively this season as they ranked 3rd in the 15-team ACC in defensive efficiency.  Over their last seven games, the Tar Heels have allowed over a point per possession only once, and four of those games were played against teams still in the tournament.

Over it last 20 games, UNC has played in only one contest that saw more than 160 combined points.  Over its last 21 games, Indiana has seen only two of its games surpassing 160 combined points in regulation.  That's a combined 38-3 angle backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set of 159 points.  This one will be lower-scoring than expected.  Roll with the UNDER.

20* UNC/Indiana Side & Total PARLAY on UNC -5.5/UNDER 159

Reasons for North Carolina:

The Tar Heels are the lone exception in terms of ACC teams being overrated coming into the Sweet 16.  There are six ACC teams in the Sweet 16, and they have a 12-1 record overall.  But the Tar Heels are the only team that I believe is legit.

In fact, I picked them to win the NCAA Tournament because they are the only team that I believe has no weaknesses.  They have the best post play of any team in the tournament behind Brice Johnson, Isaiah Hicks and Kennedy Meeks, and they have two of the best guards in the big dance in Joel Berry II and Marcus Paige.  They also go deep on the bench in came anyone gets in foul trouble.

Indiana is getting a lot of love right now for its win over Kentucky, but the fact of the matter is that the Wildcats simply had an off night.  Give the Hoosiers some credit for winning that game, but now they'll be up against the best team they have faced all season in the Tar Heels.

Where this game is going to be won is in the paint.  The only way to stop Carolina is to be able to stop them inside, but Indiana isn't built to do that.  Teams have been torching the Hoosiers all year in the paint, and that won't change in this match-up.  I'll gladly side with the team that is going to get easy buckets inside and dominate the glass than the one that has to rely on outside shooting to win games, which is Indiana.

The Hoosiers also have some key injuries that they'll have to overcome in this one.  Robert Johnson and Juwan Morgan were both injured and knocked out of the game against Kentucky.  While both are probable to play Friday, I have to question their effectiveness, especially Johnson who looked like he couldn't move his shoulder at all.

UNC is 7-0 in its last seven games with all seven victories coming against NCAA Tournament teams, and four of those coming by 16 points or more.  The Hoosiers are 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games following a ATS win.  Indiana is 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. ACC teams.  Take North Carolina Friday.

Reasons for the UNDER:

Admittedly, Indiana has been better defensively as the season has gone on.  The Hoosiers wound up finishing 3rd in defensive efficiency in the Big Ten, and they held Kentucky to less than a point per possession.  It was an off night for the Wildcats, but impressive nonetheless.

While I do think UNC will score plenty of points to cover, I don't believe it will top 80 points in this one.  The key will be its defense holding Indiana to 70 or less, which I think is a fair assumption.  The Tar Heels were underrated defensively this season as they ranked 3rd in the 15-team ACC in defensive efficiency.  Over their last seven games, the Tar Heels have allowed over a point per possession only once, and four of those games were played against teams still in the tournament.

Over it last 20 games, UNC has played in only one contest that saw more than 160 combined points.  Over its last 21 games, Indiana has seen only two of its games surpassing 160 combined points in regulation.  That's a combined 38-3 angle backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set of 159 points.  This one will be lower-scoring than expected.  Roll with the UNDER.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -2

The Detroit Pistons are showing excellent value today as only 2-point home favorites over the Charlotte Hornets.  They are currently clinging on to the No. 8 seed in the East with both Chicago and Washington right on their heels, so they cannot afford to lose this game at home.

It has been nice to see what the Pistons have been capable of of late when they've played with a sense of urgency.  Indeed, they are 4-0 in their last four games overall.  They have been solid at home all season with a 23-12 record, while the Hornets are just 14-19 on the road.

The Pistons are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Detroit is 21-12 ATS in all home games this season.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +5

The Iowa State Cyclones came into the NCAA Tournament underrated.  They didn't live up to expectations in the regular season, but that was because they had some injuries, suspensions and a lack of depth slow them down for much of the year.

It's no secret that Iowa State was poor on defense for a lot of the year, but the biggest reason for that was that they didn't pressure teams as much because they didn't want to get into foul trouble.  Well, that has changed in the NCAA Tournament as their defense has taken a couple steps in the right direction.

Yes, Iona scored 81 points on them in their opener, but Iona shoots the ball within 15 seconds on most possessions.  The Cyclones still won that game by 13 points, 94-81.  They also beat Little Rock 78-61 and held them to 37% shooting for the game.  That's the same Little Rock team that upset Purdue in the 1st round, and one that won 30 games this year.

So, the defense is getting better, and now it is keeping up with ISU's offense, which ranks 3rd in the country in efficiency.  The Cyclones average 82.1 points per game, shoot 50.3% from the field, and 38.6% from the 3-point line.  Their offense is the reason they will pull this upset against Virginia.

Virginia's pack-line defense gets a lot of hype, and for good reason, because it is one of the best in the country.  However, there are a couple ways to beat it, and Iowa State just so happens to have the ingredients to do so.

First, you need to be able to shoot from outside, which Iowa State excels at in making 38.6% from distance.  Second, you need a player who can pass out of double-teams in the post.  Georges Niang may be the best post player in the country in finding open teammates, and his is certainly the toughest matchup in the country.  He will test Virginia's defense like it hasn't been tested yet this season.

Many say that Iowa State has to run to be efficient, but that's simply not the case.  And running against Virginia is a recipe for disaster.  The best way to beat Virginia is to move the ball around and wear out the Cavaliers, and the Cyclones are great at that.  They are actually one of the most efficient half-court offenses in the country, and you can bet that Steve Prohm will emphasis ball movement against Virginia.  Their 16 assists per game is also one of the top marks in the land.

The ACC being 12-1 in the NCAA Tournament is giving most of their teams too much respect from the betting public and the oddsmakers.  I think that's certainly the case with Virginia.  The average seed the ACC has beaten is 11.8, so they were supposed to advance in most cases.

Butler was able to hang with Virginia for 40 minutes, and the Bulldogs aren't nearly as good of a team as Iowa State. It took a late surge and plenty of free throws in the final seconds for Virginia to put away Butler with a 77-69 final.  Butler is a solid offensive team that put up 69 points on this Virginia defense, but like I said, the Bulldogs are nothing compared to Iowa State offensively.

Virginia owned Butler on offense by shooting 55.8% for the game, but that's not going to happen against this improved Iowa State defense that has shot-blocker Jamaal McKay protecting the rim, and two elite perimeter defenders in Monte Morris and Matt Thomas who match up very well with London Perrantes and Malcolm Brogdon, respectively.

The Cavaliers really only have three guys that can beat you in Brogdon, Anthony Gill and Perrantes being the only players averaging more than 6.9 points per game.  Iowa State has six guys that can beat you with six players averaging in double-figures scoring coming into the NCAA Tournament, one of only two teams in the country who can claim that.

It's also worth noting that the Cyclones should have a nice home-court advantage as this game will be played in Chicago, just about a six-hour drive from Ames, IA. It's also important to note that 7 of Iowa State's 11 losses this season have come by 5 points or less, especially considering they are getting 5 points here.  All 11 losses came by 10 points or fewer as well.

Iowa State is 8-1 ATS in March games over the last two seasons.  Virginia is 0-6 ATS when playing on 5 or 6 days of rest over the last three years.  They are actually losing by 2.6 points per game on average in these spots.  The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet Iowa State Friday.

15* Duke/Oregon Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon -3

The ACC is overrated as a whole with a 12-1 record in the NCAA Tournament that has come against teams with an average seed of 11.8.  I have not been impressed at all with Duke.  It needed to overcome a halftime deficit to beat UNC-Wilmington 93-85, and it needed late free throws to top Yale 71-64.

But now the Blue Devils take a massive step up in competition against Oregon.  For whatever reason, the Ducks just don't get the respect they deserve.  A lot of that has to do with the Pac-12 only having one team left, but the Ducks were far and away the best team in the conference all season.  I think the poor perception of the Pac-12 has kept this line lower than it should be, while the tremendous perception of the ACC has also contributed to that.

Oregon has won 10 straight games while rarely getting tested.  However, it was tested finally in a 69-64 win over St. Joseph's in which the Ducks had to erase a late deficit to win.  I think that effort will have this team glimmering with confidence coming in.  Because if this game gets close late, which I don't expect it will, the Ducks have the balls to get it done.

From a matchup standpoint, Duke's biggest weakness is it's lack of depth.  That will come into play here.  Duke's defense has been exposed by more athletic teams all season, and the Ducks are extremely athletic and aggressive at attacking the rim.  They will put a ton of pressure on Duke in that aspect to stay out of foul trouble.

The Ducks attempt 24 free throws per game against teams that only allow 21 free throw attempts per game, so that just goes to show their attacking style.  They are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the tournament as they average 78.9 points on 46.8% shooting.  They are also the better defensive team here, giving up 68.5 points per game against opponents that average 74.3 points per game.

Oregon is also going to have a huge edge in the paint.  Duke has struggled rebounding all year.  Well, Oregon has a ton of size inside and is relentless in attacking the basket and the offensive glass.  The Blue Devils have actually been outrebounded on the season, and Yale owned them on the glass with a 42-28 rebounding edge.

The Ducks will have a heavy home-court advantage in this one as this game will be played on the West Coast out in Anaheim.  Duke is 1-7 ATS in neutral court games this season.  The Ducks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games.  The Blue Devils are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Oregon is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games off four straight games where it committed 11 or fewer turnovers.  Bet Oregon Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +9.5

The Utah Jazz have saved their best basketball for last, and it couldn't have come at a better time.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall to move into 8th place in the Western Conference standings.  But they know their work isn't done, and they'll continue to play well tonight while catching a whopping 9.5 points from the Thunder.

The Jazz are really feeling good after coming back from double-digits down to beat Houston 89-87 last night.  The Rockets are the primary team they are fighting with to make the playoffs.  While this will be the 2nd of a back-to-back now, the Jazz should be fine because they are healthy and they had two days off before that Houston game.

I really do not like the mindset of the Thunder right now.  They can't reach the No. 2 seed, and they have the No. 3 seed pretty much locked up because they are 5.5 games ahead of 4th-place Los Angeles.  They are kind of stuck in La La Land here with not much to play for the rest of the way.  Plus, they could be looking ahead to their showdown with San Antonio on Saturday.

This has been a closely-contested series as four of the last five meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.  The Thunder are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Oklahoma City is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games following a win.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Jazz Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -13

I really love the mindset of the Indiana Pacers right now.  They aren't taking anything for granted right now after missing the playoffs by one game last year, and with Chicago, Detroit and Washington right on their heels to make the playoffs this season.  They are only one game ahead of the 9th-place Bulls.

"We all understand how important every single game is," Indiana coach Frank Vogel said at Tuesday's practice. "We talk frequently about the fact that we missed the playoffs by one game last year."

"Right now we don't have the feeling of our spot is guaranteed, and it's good," George said. "We should have a little pressure. Hopefully that makes us perform better."

That's why they won't be overlooking the Pelicans, who are a mash unit right now.  Nearly all of New Orleans' best players are sidelined. Anthony Davis recently joined starting guards Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon as being out for the season, second-leading scorer Ryan Anderson could be shut down due to a groin injury, and Norris Cole has missed eight straight games with back soreness.

New Orleans is 1-8 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive overs this season.  Indiana is 13-3 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Better yet, the Pacers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 2 days' rest.  Roll with the Pacers Thursday.

15* GA Tech/SDSU ESPN 2 Wednesday No-Brainer on Georgia Tech +5

We've seen how strong the ACC has been with six teams in the Sweet 16, which is the most for a single conference since 1975.  Now, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are representing the conference very well in the NIT.  I look for that to continue tonight.

Georgia Tech has absolutely destroyed two very good teams to reach the quarterfinals.  It beat Houston 81-62 at home as 3.5-point favorites, and then went on the road and beat South Carolina 83-66 as 4.5-point dogs.  Many felt the Gamecocks should have been in the NCAA Tournament.

San Diego State has had a much easier path to the quarterfinals.  It beat IUPU-Fort Wayne at home in its first game, and then Washington in its second game.  I would argue that both South Carolina and Houston are better than either of the teams that SDSU has defeated.

Georgia Tech is 11-1 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season.  The Yellow Jackets have had a combined 78-46 rebounding edge over their first two opponents in the NIT, and their ability to win the battle on the glass in this game will be key to them covering this 5-point spread.  Roll with Georgia Tech Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics PK

The Boston Celtics want revenge from a 91-105 loss at Toronto on March 18 just five days ago.  They have blown out both Philadelphia (by 15) and Orlando (by 11) since then, and now they are primed to get their payback on the Raptors at home this time around.

The Celtics have been danger at home of late, going 15-2 in their last 17 home games.  This is a great price for them at just a pick 'em given that home success.  Plus, they are fighting for the #3 seed in the East as they are in a four-way battle with three other teams who also have 41 wins, just like them.  So they could be the #3 seed or the #6 seed, which is a huge difference.

The Raptors come in overvalued due to having won four straight and seven of their last eight.  But they have some key injuries right now that could hamper them going forward.  James Johnson, Patrick Patterson and Jonas Valanciunas are all questionable, while DeMarre Carroll remains out.

The Celtics are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Boston is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 home games overall.  The Raptors are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 trips to Boston.  Take the Celtics Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards PK

The Washington Wizards are in a home-and-home situation here with the Atlanta Hawks.  The Wizards won 117-102 in Atlanta two nights ago.  Usually I'd take the team that lost the first meeting in these situations, but not this time.

That's because the Wizards are still fighting to make the playoffs, so they won't have the usual letdown that comes with winning the first game of a home-and-home.  The Wizards are in 10th place in the East, currently 1.5 games behind both the 8th-place Bulls and 9th-place Pistons.

But Washington has at least given itself a fighting chance by playing its best basketball of the season over the past couple weeks.  It is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games with four of those wins coming by double-digits.  The Wizards will be looking to move above .500 for the first time in four months now.  A big reason for their resurgence is that they are finally healthy, while the Hawks could be without Dennis Schroder (questionable) due to an ankle injury.

The Wizards are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last four games when playing on 1 days' rest.  The Hawks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more are 28-9 (75.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Brooklyn Nets +6.5

The Brooklyn Nets have not quit on their season even with their poor record.  They certainly will be primed for a solid performance today as they are as healthy as they've been all season, and they have had two days' rest in between games having last played on Saturday.

The Charlotte Hornets are in an awful spot here.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They used a lot of energy in erasing a 23-point deficit and coming back to beat the Spurs 91-88 at home last night.  Off such an emotional, draining win, look for them to be very flat tonight against the Nets.

The Nets have played the Hornets tough in recent meeting as the last three were decided by 8, 5 and 3 points.  Plays on any team (BROOKLYN) - after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 64-31 (67.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Plays against road favorites (CHARLOTTE) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 56-25 (69.1%) ATS over the last five years.  The Nets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.  Brooklyn is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Nets Tuesday.

15* St. Mary's/Valpo ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Valparaiso -3.5

The Valparaiso Crusaders certainly felt like they belonged in the NCAA Tournament, but they aren't feeling sorry for themselves.  Instead, they are taking care of business thus far in the NIT.

Indeed, they rolled Texas Southern 84-73 and then topped a very good Florida State team from the ACC two days later 81-69.  The Crusaders are now 16-1 at home this season, outscoring the opposition by an average of nearly 19 points per game.

Valpo has a huge rest advantage here against St. Mary's.  It last played on March 17, while St. Mary's last played two days ago in a home win over Georgia.  The Gaels have had to travel to Valpo on short notice and have had little time to prepare for the Crusaders.  That's a big disadvantage.

St. Mary's is 2-10 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  Valpo is 7-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of better than 80% over the last two seasons.  The Crusaders are 9-0 ATS versus teams who shoot 45% or better and allow 42% shooting or worse over the last two seasons.  These three trends combine for a 26-2 system backing the Crusaders.  Take Valpo Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +6.5

The Washington Wizards have given themselves a fighting chance to make the playoffs after winning each of their last four games overall, including three by double-digits.  They beat the Pistons by 43, the Bulls by 21 and the Knicks by 10 during this stretch.

Now the Wizards currently sit in 10th place in the East, just 1.5 games behind both 9th-place Detroit and 8th-place Chicago.  They still have a lot of work to do, and going on the road and beating the Atlanta Hawks today would certainly help.  It's safe to say they'll be laying it all on the line to get a victory.

I believe the Hawks are overvalued right now due to the way they have been playing of late.  They have actually gone 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall, and the betting public has certainly taken notice.  Now they are laying a few too many points to the Wizards tonight in a game that will go down to the wire.

Washington is 45-28 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons.  The Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on 1 days rest.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - off a home win by 10 points or more, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 54-29 (65.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Wizards Monday.