Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-31-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 203 | Top | 115-126 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
20* Warriors/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 203
Two of the best offensive teams in the entire league will be on display Thursday night when the Los Angeles Clippers match up with the Golden State Warriors on TNT. I look for a shootout between these teams tonight. According to some preseason rankings that I trust very much, the Clippers are projected to be the most efficient offensive team in the league. That's easy to see when they have Chris Paul and Blake Griffin surrounded by deadly accurate 3-point shooters like J.J. Redick and Matt Barnes, along with proven scorer Jamaal Crawford. Even in an off night, the Clippers managed over 100 points in their 103-116 loss to the Lakers to open the season. I also expected this team to struggle defensively due to the personnel with below-average defenders like Redick and Jamaal Crawford. That was certainly the case against the Lakers. Golden State opened its season last night by putting up a big number on the Lakers, winning 125-94 at home. With deadly shooters in Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry, this squad is going to be tough to defend, just as it was in the playoffs last year. Taking a look at previous meetings between these teams from last season, it's easy to see that there is some value with the OVER tonight. The Clippers and Warriors combined for 205, 204, 209 and 224 points in their four meetings last year. As you can see, they topped 203 points each meeting, and they averaged 210.5 combined points in the four contests. The OVER is 8-1 in Clippers last nine games overall. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series. The OVER is 16-5-1 in Clippers last 22 games vs. division opponents. The OVER is 11-2 in Warriors last 13 vs. division opponents. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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10-30-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 189 | Top | 94-101 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
20* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies/Spurs UNDER 189
This is a rematch from the playoffs last year where the San Antonio Spurs swept the Memphis Grizzlies in four games. There's no question that these teams are very familiar with one another, which will lead to a defensive battle tonight in the season opener for both teams. Miraculously, four of the last eight meetings between the Spurs and Grizzlies have gone to overtime. I believe that's a big reason why this total has been inflated. The betting public doesn't always realize this, and they just see that the over/under ratio is 4-4 in the last eight games in this series. A closer look really shows how the Spurs and Grizzlies consistently play in defensive battles. If you exclude overtime, then I find that the last eight meetings have seen 179, 172, 170, 188, 182, 185, 190 and 174 combined points at the end of regulation. As you can see, only once did the Spurs and Grizzlies combine to score more than 188 points in the last eight meetings. When you average it out, they have combined for 180.0 points per game on average in the last eight meetings at the end of regulation. That's a full nine points below tonight's posted total of 189. I have seen nothing from the Spurs and the Grizzlies in the offseason that makes me believe either team will be better off offensively this season. In fact, in my defensive efficiency ratings which factors in points allowed per 100 possessions, San Antonio ranks as the No. 1 defensive teams in the league, while Memphis checks in at No. 3 heading into the 2013-14 season. Plays on the UNDER on any team (MEMPHIS) - in a game involving two teams who had good records (60% to 75%) from last season are 40-15 (72.7%) over the last five seasons. With an added intensity due to meeting in the playoffs last year, I look for this to be an absolute defensive battle tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
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10-30-13 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Houston Rockets -12 | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -12
A year after striking gold with James Harden in a trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Houston Rockets have now landed the biggest-named free agent on the market in Dwight Howard. After making the playoffs last season, the Rockets are now primed to make a deep run in the postseason with two superstars leading the way. What makes the Rockets so deadly now is that they have a ton of quality pieces surrounding Howard and Harden. Omer Asik will combine with Howard to form one of the best defensive frontcourts in the NBA. Patrick Beverly and Jeremy Lin are battling for playing time, and each is an above-average point guard in this league. Chandler Parsons is a deadly accurate 3-point shooter who can do a little bit of everything. While the Charlotte Bobcats made a big splash in the offseason to finally get a scoring big man in Al Jefferson, the fact of the matter is that they won't be much better off in 2013-14. Plus, Jefferson is questionable to play Wednesday as he battle a nagging ankle injury. While I fully expect him to suit up, this is a terrible matchup for he and the Bobcats. Houston loves to run the pick and roll, and Jefferson routinely ranks among the league's worst in defending the pick-and roll. A banged-up Jefferson will be even more vulnerable against Harden, Beverly, Lin and company in pick-and-rolls. Then there's Ben Gordon, who finished 5.6 points worse per 100 possessions than the average defender last season, which was the worst mark in the entire league by a wide margin. After opening 7-5 last season, Bobcats' fans believed that it was going to be their year. It turns out that they won all six games that were decided by five points or fewer, including a double-overtime win against the winless Wizards for victory No. 7. It also turns out that only one of those seven teams finished with better than a .500 record. Charlotte would go on an 18-game losing streak thereafter, while also posting a 7-47 record over its next 54 games. The Jefferson signing isn't going to just make all of their problems go away. Houston has absolutely owned Charlotte in recent meetings, and that was before it landed Howard this offseason. The Rockets are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Bobcats. Four of the five victories came by 12 or more points. Houston has won by 14, 20 and 16 points in its last three home meetings with Charlotte. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The favorite is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The Bobcats are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings in Houston. Charlotte is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games. The Bobcats are 14-37 ATS in their last 51 vs. Western Conference opponents. Roll with the Rockets Wednesday. |
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10-30-13 | Indiana Pacers v. New Orleans Pelicans +2 | Top | 95-90 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +2
The New Orleans Pelicans are going to be one of the most improved teams in the league this season. After missing a lot of time last season, both Eric Gordon and Anthony Davis are healthy to start to the 2013-14 campaign. These are the cornerstones of the franchise, so that's very important. With two of the best moves of the offseason, the Pelicans have added point guard Jrue Holiday and shooting guard Tyreke Evans, which will be a huge addition to the offense. They have two shooters who can stretch the floor in Ryan Anderson and Anthony Morrow. This is now one of the deepest lineups in the league. Only the Chicago Bulls (8-0) posted a better preseason record than New Orleans, which went 7-1. Davis picked up right where he left off last season when healthy, averaging 19.9 points and 5.9 rebounds in 27.4 minutes per game in the preseason. Gordon put up 17.0 points in an average of 20.8 minutes per game. Holiday added 11.8 points and 6.1 assists, while Morrow (12.5 points) and Anderson (11.9 points) provided a scoring punch as well. The Indiana Pacers are coming off an unconvincing 97-87 win over Orlando in their opener Tuesday night. They trailed by four points at halftime against arguably the worst team in the league in the Magic. Also, Roy Hibbert banged up his knee, while Paul George jammed his finger in the win. While both players are expected to play, there's no question this is concerning for Indiana fans. Indiana's bench was one of the worst in the league last season. It hasn't gotten much better in the offseason, either. That's key here because the Pacers will be playing the second of a back-to-back after their starters played big minutes last night. I know it's still early, but playing the second of a back-to-back hurts teams like the Pacers without a bench more than it would a team like the Clippers with a deep bench. Plus, Danny Granger remains out, which makes the Pacers' bench even more thin. The home team has won five of the last seven meetings in this series. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a S.U. win. The Pelicans are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games when playing on three or more days' rest. Take New Orleans Wednesday. v |
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10-30-13 | Washington Wizards v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 190.5 | 102-113 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pistons UNDER 190.5
The Washington Wizards and Detroit Pistons will be two of the better defensive teams in the league in 2013-14. I look for that to show in the opener as these teams take part in a defensive battle Wednesday night in Detroit. With the addition of Josh Smith, the Pistons boast a formidable frontcourt that will not allow many easy baskets around the rim. Andre Drummond came into his own last season as a shot blocker and rebounder, and he is only going to get better a year later. Greg Monroe is also a solid defender, though not quite to the level of Smith and Drummond. A big key here is that Brandon Jennings is going to miss the first week or two of the season due to injury. Jennings was added to provide some offense at the point guard position, and the Pistons will miss his ability to create shots for teammates and himself in the early going. Chauncey Billups is a candidate to take his place. I like the toughness that Billups brings to the table as one of the best perimeter defenders the league has ever seen. However, he's not quite the offensive player he once was, much more preferring to play off the ball these days. Washington was one of the most underrated defensive teams in the league last season, which was evidenced by their 45-34-3 UNDER record. Once John Wall returned from injury in January, the Wizards gave up just 99.7 points per 100 possessions, which was the sixth-best mark in the entire league from that point-on. This team features a bunch of plus-defenders who play big minutes, such as Bradley Beal, Nene Hilario, Kevin Seraphin and Trevor Ariza. Taking a look at recent meetings between the Wizards and Pistons, it's easy to see that there is a ton of value with this UNDER Wednesday. The Pistons and Wizards have combined to score 191, 181, 183, 168, 193, 156 and 175 points in their last seven meetings, respectively. That's an average of 178.1 points per game, which is roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total. Washington is 11-1 to the UNDER as a road underdog of six points or less over the last two seasons. The Wizards are 40-15 to the UNDER in their last 55 road games overall. According to my adjusted defensive ratings, I have Washington listed as the 5th-best defense in the league, while Detroit features the 9th-best defense in 2013-14. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
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10-30-13 | Milwaukee Bucks +8 v. New York Knicks | 83-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Milwaukee Bucks +8
The New York Knicks are one of the most overrated teams in the league heading into the 2013-14 season. This line is certainly a reflection of that as I believe the Milwaukee Bucks are much more evenly-matched with the Knicks than this line would indicate. I'll take full advantage and pounce on the points in the opener for both teams Wednesday. The Knicks were a dominant team before Amare Stoudemire returned last season. They won 70.4 percent of games in the early going, but when Stoudemire returned in January, they went on to win just 55.2 percent of the rest of their games. He doesn't fit in this offense, but the money they are paying him forces coach Mike Woodson's hand to put him in the lineup. J.R. Smith had an excellent year last season, earning Sixth Man of the Year honors. However, he struggled in the playoffs and is coming off knee surgery. Plus, he will be serving a five-game suspension to open the season due to violating the league's substance abuse problems. Without his energy and shot-making off the bench, this is just a mediocre team. In perhaps the worst move of the offseason, New York traded for former Raptor Andrea Bargnani. He offers nothing of what New York needs and everything it should avoid. The injury-prone Bargnani shot just 39.9 percent from the floor and 30.9 percent from 3-point range when healthy enough to play in Toronto last year. He also averaged a measly 4.6 rebounds per 36 minutes played last year, which is unacceptable for a 7-footer. Bargnani is expected to start, and he severely handicaps New York's defense, making Tyson Chandler's job much more difficult than it should be. Now to the Bucks, who quietly had a very productive offseason. I love the fact that they got rid of Brandon Jennings and Monte Ellis, who simply hijacked the offense with ill-advised shots. In fact, Ellis and Jennings combined for the third-most field goal attempts of any duo in the league last season, finishing only behind Oklahoma City's Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and New York's Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith. After the Bucks ranked just 23rd in offensive efficiency last season, it was time for them to go. Milwaukee has now shifted its focus to building around two of the most underrated players in the league in Ersan Ilyasova and Larry Sanders. Ilyasova scored 13.2 points to go along with 7.1 rebounds and 44.4 percent from 3-point range last season. He becomes the go-to scorer on this team, but the additions of O.J. Mayo, Caron Butler and Brandon Knight will help take a big part of the scoring load off his shoulders. Then there's Sanders, who is one of the best defenders in the league after leading the NBA in block percentage and finishing third in total blocks. He also improved as a rebounder, averaging 13.9 boards per 40 minutes of floor time. To better understand his importance, the Bucks were 5.0 points per 100 possessions were defensively when Sanders was on the bench last season. Sanders will team with John Henson for a formidable frontcourt filled with length and athleticism. Luke Ridnour provides a veteran presence to back up Knight at the points, while Gary Neal brings some solid scoring off the bench. Milwaukee is an astounding 48-19-2 ATS in its last 69 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents. It is also 7-3 ATS in its last visits to New York. Bet the Bucks Wednesday. |
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10-29-13 | Chicago Bulls +4.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 95-107 | Loss | -102 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
25* NBA Season Opening GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls +4.5
The Chicago Bulls are going to want revenge from their loss to the Miami Heat in the conference semifinals last year. It's remarkable that the Bulls were able to even get to the second round with all of the injuries they suffered last season. Derrick Rose missed the entire year, and Luol Deng came down with an unexpected sickness in the playoffs. Not to mention, Richard Hamilton, Joakim Noah, Kirk Hinrich and Taj Gibson would combine to miss 87 games during the regular season. The experience this team gained will go a very long way into making them a championship-caliber squad going forward. Guys like Deng, Jimmy Butler, Carlos Boozer, Noah, Gibson and Hinrich all had to step up their games and play bigger roles. Now, with the return of Rose, the rest of these players won't have to just stand around and watch him operate. They know they can contribute, because they did last season. Also, the addition of Mike Dunleavy gives this team a deadly accurate 3-point shooter that has been much-needed since the loss of Kyle Korver a few years back. Chicago rolled to an 8-0 record in the preseason due to the play of Rose. He averaged an absurd 20.7 points over 27.4 minutes per game while showing off his improved range, hitting on 12-of-27 (44.4%) from behind the 3-point line. Lebron James has only fueled the fire for the Bulls. "We don't like them, they don't like us," James said of the Bulls after practice Monday. "It's not unheard of. We all know how it is." "It don't matter who it is," James said of the opponent for the opener. "But we like the fact that it's the Bulls." Considering Chicago has been knocked out of the playoffs two of the last three years by Miami, James would have been wise to keep quiet heading into this one. Miami will be raising its 2012-13 championship banner and getting its rings before the game. That in itself is a huge distraction, and one that will not help the Heat as they take on what I believe to be the best team in the Eastern Conference in the Bulls. This is a very familiar spot for the Heat on both sides of the spectrum. After the Heat won the title in 2006, the Bulls promptly put a quick end to their celebration on opening night, winning 108-66. The Heat were in the Bulls' shoes two years ago. After losing to the Dallas Mavericks in the 2011 finals, they got revenge in the 2011-12 opener by blasting the defending champs by double-digits. Few teams can match up with the Heat quite like the Bulls. Deng and Butler are two of the best wing defenders in the league. With these two on James and Wade, respectively, the Bulls can make life very difficult on Miami's stars. I look for Chicago to quickly put an end to Miami's ring ceremony and banner raising celebration by winning outright on opening night. I'll just take the points for some added insurance. Bet the Bulls Tuesday. |
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10-29-13 | Orlando Magic +12 v. Indiana Pacers | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show | |
15* Magic/Pacers NBA Season Opener on Orlando +12
The Orlando Magic come into the season way undervalued due to finishing with the league's worst record in 2012-13. Conversely, the Indiana Pacers enter the season overvalued due to taking the Miami Heat to seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals last year. As a result, I believe there is a ton of value in backing the Magic as a double-digit dog in the opener. Arron Afflalo is coming off his best season as a pro, finishing with career highs in points, rebounds and assists. Jameer Nelson enters 2013-14 healthy, while the No. 2 overall pick in Victor Oladipo is ready to show that he's an up-and-coming star in this league. Nikola Vucevic is one of the most underrated players in the NBA after a year in which he was a double-double machine. The ankle injury to Tobias Harris hurts, but Andrew Nicholson showed some great signs over the summer and into the preseason. He scored a team-high 60 points for Canada in the FIBA Americas, hitting 6-of-7 shots from beyond the arc. He carried that over into the preseason, connecting on 46.2 percent from distance. Maurice Harkless showed flashes of brilliance last season, and he averaged 10.8 points on 48.4 percent shooting in the preseason as well. Indiana is a quality team that I rode quite a bit in the playoffs last year. While I have a ton of respect for the Pacers with what they did last season, they have created the kind of expectations for themselves that will make them good fade material in the early going. Plus, Danny Granger has suffered another setback with a calf injury and will miss the first three weeks of the season. Depth was a huge issue for the Pacers last season, and without him, the bench takes a big hit. The road team has won three of the past four meetings in this series, so home-court advantage isn't a big factor when these teams get together. The price is right to pull the trigger on Orlando in the opener. Take the Magic Tuesday. |
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06-20-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat UNDER 189.5 | Top | 88-95 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
25* NBA Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Spurs/Heat UNDER 189.5
I have correctly picked the winning side in each of the first six games in this series. However, I believe the oddamakers have set a very solid spread for Game 7. But they have certainly missed their mark on the total, which is where all the value lies in this huge contest. By now, San Antonio and Miami know exactly what one another is going to do. That makes points very hard to come by as it's now down to which team wants it more. Game 6 would have gone UNDER the total if not for overtime, and I look for Game 7 to be even lower scoring tonight. Both teams come in extremely tired after using up a ton of energy in that incredible Game 6. Neither team is going to have the energy to get out and fast break with any kind of consistency. That's why I expect this to be a slow-it-down, grind-it-out Game 7. Also, the pressure of a Game 7 will make it more difficult for shooters to knock down shots. The play falls into a system that is 24-6 (80%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MIAMI) - as a # 1 seed in the playoffs, in the finals. The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Spurs last 22 road games. The UNDER is 4-1 in Miami's last 5 home games. The UNDER is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings between these teams in Miami. Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Thursday. |
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06-18-13 | San Antonio Spurs +7 v. Miami Heat | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
20* Spurs/Heat Game 6 No-Brainer on San Antonio +7
I have been using the zig zag theory to perfection since taking San Antonio +5.5 in Game 1. I have gone 5-0 in the NBA Finals by selecting Miami in Game 2, San Antonio in Game 3, the Heat in Game 4, and the Spurs in Game 5. However, I feel like it's time to buck this trend. That's because I believe that the oddsmakers have finally over-adjusted for it, installing Miami as a series-high 7-point favorite for Game 6. The value is with the Spurs in this one folks. San Antonio knows that its best chance to win this series is in Game 6, because history is not on its side if this series goes to a Game 7. Greg Popovich will have his team focused and ready to go win this series in Game 6. It's clear that Manu Ginobli still has something left in the tank. He, along with Danny Green, were the keys to San Antonio's Game 5 victory. I look for the Spurs to continue to share the ball and find the open man, while Manu is every bit as aggressive as he was in Game 6, which certainly helps this team. Only three teams in NBA Finals history have rallied from a 3-2 deficit to win the final two home games, and thus the series. Tony Parker got overlooked in Game 5 as he scored a game-high 26 points, showing that his hamstring is a non-issue. Tim Duncan did what he does, scoring 17 points and grabbing 12 rebounds. San Antonio is 14-3 ATS after a game where it made 55% of its shots or better this season. Miami is 1-10 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games this season, including 0-7 ATS ATS in home games after playing 3 consecutive road games this season. Bet the Spurs in Game 6 Tuesday. |
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06-16-13 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs +1.5 | Top | 104-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
20* Heat/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on San Antonio +1.5
Just as Game 4 was a must-win for Miami, Game 5 has become a must-win for San Antonio. The Spurs know they cannot afford to be down 3-2 with the final two games being played in Miami. I look for them to respond in a big way at home in Game 5. The media has made a big deal about Tony Parker's hamstring, and Manu Ginobli's poor play to this point. I look for both guys to respond in a big way, and for the team to rally around them like they have all season. That talk in the media has also shifted Miami to a 1.5-point favorite as the public has flocked to the Heat. I'll go the other way and back the Spurs, who have been nothing short of dominant at home all season. They are 42-8 at home this year, outscoring opponents by a whopping 10.0 points/game. Whatever they have to give, they will be putting on the floor in this one. Miami has been absolutely terrible after a win in these playoffs. It is now 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games following a S.U. win, 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games following an ATS win, and 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. San Antonio is also 7-0 ATS off a home loss this season, outscoring opponents by 14.0 points/game in this spot. These seven trends combine for a perfect 36-0 system backing San Antonio. Bet the Spurs in Game 5 Sunday. |
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06-13-13 | Miami Heat +1.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 109-93 | Win | 100 | 33 h 22 m | Show |
20* Heat/Spurs Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Miami +1.5
This is essentially a must-win situation for the Miami Heat. They realize they cannot afford to go down 3-1 if they want to win this series, so I look for them to give everything they have to get a victory in Game 4. The Heat have been at their best when coming off a loss and needing a bounce-back win. In fact, you have to go all the way back to January 8th and 10th against Indian and Portland to find the last time that Miami has lost back-to-back games. San Antonio simply caught fire in the second half and shot lights out in Game 3. In fact, the Spurs set an NBA Finals records with 16 made 3-pointers over their 32 attempts for a 50% clip. They aren't going to even come close to shooting that well again from distance. Miami is 14-3 ATS in road games off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more since 1996. The Heat are 15-4 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent this season. Miami is a perfect 11-0 SU in its last 11 games following a loss dating back to January 10th. Now that's resiliency folks. This team can turn is on when it needs to. Bet the Heat in Game 4 Thursday. |
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06-11-13 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs -2 | Top | 77-113 | Win | 100 | 32 h 54 m | Show |
20* Heat/Spurs Game 3 No-Brainer on San Antonio -2
I have gone 2-0 in the Finals with the Spurs +5.5 in Game 1 and the Heat -5.5 in Game 2. As expected, the Heat bounced back in basically a must-win situation in Game 2 with a blowout victory as they simply wanted it more. Now, returning home for Game 3, I look for the Spurs to make the proper adjustments and to continue their dominance in San Antonio. The Spurs are a ridiculous 41-7 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 10.1 points/game. It has been a rollercoaster ride for the Heat against the spread dating back to the Eastern Conference Finals. Every time they get a big win, they seem to come back with a poor effort their next game. After a loss, they tend to bounce back with a great effort. In fact, Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games following a S.U. win. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. These three trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system in support of San Antonio heading into Game 3. I believe that Game 3 is where all that rest the Spurs received after sweeping the Grizzlies will pay off. Conversely, I feel that the grueling 7-game series the Heat faced against the Pacers will come into play. San Antonio will be the fresher team, and that will show in the 3rd and 4th quarters as it pulls away for a Game 3 victory. Bet the Spurs Tuesday. |
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06-09-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat -5.5 | Top | 84-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Heat -5.5
The Miami Heat in Game 2 represent my strongest release for the entire 2013 NBA Finals. Knowing that they cannot afford to go down 0-2 with the next three games being played in San Antonio, the Heat will respond with a blowout victory in Game 2 tonight. Miami simply responds following a loss better than any other team in the league. In fact, you have to go all the way back to January 8th and January 10th to find the last time that the Heat lost back-to-back games this season. I look for the Spurs to relax a little knowing that they have three home games coming up following this Game 2 showdown. They won't be able to match the intensity of Lebron James and company in this one. The Heat are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss. Miami is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on 2 days rest. The Heat are 14-4 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent this season. Bet the Heat in Game 2 Sunday. |
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06-06-13 | San Antonio Spurs +5.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 92-88 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
20* Spurs/Heat Game 1 No-Brainer on San Antonio +5.5
The most likely game for a road team to steal in the playoffs is Game 1 of a series before adjustments are made. While I believe the Spurs will win Game 1 tonight, I'm going to take the points for some insurance. San Antonio matches up with the Miami Heat as well as anyone in the league. Greg Popovich is a tremendous head coach, and he'll be sure to double and triple team Lebron James at times to not let him beat them. Miami will have to hit jump shots in Game 1 if it wants any chance to win tonight. After sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference Finals, the Spurs come into this game well-rested and prepared to face Miami. Meanwhile, the Heat just got done with a grueling 7-game series with the Pacers. San Antonio is 8-0 ATS in road games versus teams who average 48 or less rebounds/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Spurs are 9-0 ATS after 2 consecutive division games over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. These three trends combine for a 22-0 system backing San Antonio. Bet the Spurs Thursday. |
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06-03-13 | Indiana Pacers +7.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 76-99 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 50 m | Show |
20* Pacers/Heat Game 7 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +7.5
The Indiana Pacers have been an extremely resilient team. They came together with a 91-77 victory in Game 6 in the face of elimination. While the Pacers are a team coming together heading into Game 7, the Heat seem to be falling apart at the seams. Dwyane Wade wants a bigger role. Chris Bosh wants a bigger role. This has led to some turmoil within their locker room, and I simply like the mindset of the Pacers better heading into this Game 7. Miami has all of the pressure on its shoulders considering it is the favorite to win the title. Indiana comes in as the underdog with almost no pressure on its shoulders. David West had a 103-degree temperature in Game 6, but he played through it and scored 11 points while grabbing 14 very important rebounds. The team rallied around him, and once again this moment has brought them closer together. "We've got to do a good job of making sure me and Chris have our opportunities to succeed throughout the game," Wade said. Wade has scored a total of 20 points the past two games. He was 3 of 11 for 10 points in Game 6. Bosh averaged 16.3 points on 11 shots in the series' first three games. In the three games since, he's averaging just 6.3 points on seven shots a game. Bosh was 1-of-8 shooting for just five points in Saturday's loss. "We've got guys individually who want to play better," Wade said. "But we've got to try to help each other out in this locker room and not leave it up to the individual to self-will it." "I mean, we can state the obvious; they're both struggling," Lebron James said of Wade and Bosh. "When you're struggling, the best thing to get is a layup or a dunk. [Wade] missed a couple of them ... Chris is struggling with his shot and him hurting his ankle didn't help." Indiana is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) off a home win by 10 points or more this season. Miami is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games after playing a road game this season. The Pacers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. Bet the Pacers in Game 7 Monday. |
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06-01-13 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +3 | Top | 77-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
20* Heat/Pacers Game 6 No-Brainer on Indiana +3
The Indiana Pacers are not about to give in and let Miami take this series in six games. I look for the Pacers to send this series to Game 7 with a victory tonight to continue their home dominance. Indiana is 37-12 at home this season. It is winning by 7.9 points/game at home this season. The Pacers have only lost one game at home in the playoffs, going 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS this postseason. They simply play with a lot of confidence at home. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. These two trends show how each team has responded recently following a win/loss. Indiana responds in Game 6 tonight. Bet the Pacers Saturday. |
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05-30-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat -7.5 | Top | 79-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
20* Pacers/Heat Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Miami -7.5
The Miami Heat get the nod Thursday in Game 5. I look for a similar dominant performance to their Game 3 effort when they won at Indiana 114-96 after losing Game 2 at home. They'll bounce back in similar fashion following a Game 4 loss tonight. Miami is a ridiculous 42-6 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 8.6 points/game. Indiana is just 22-26 on the road this season, and it will not be able to match the intensity of the Heat playing behind their home fans tonight. The Heat are 12-4 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. It is bouncing back to win by 12.4 points/game in this spot. Miami is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games following a S.U. loss dating back to the regular season. Bet the Heat in Game 5 Thursday. |
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05-28-13 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +3 | Top | 92-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers +3
The Indiana Pacers represent my strongest release for the entire 2013 NBA playoffs in Game 4 tonight. They should not be an underdog at home, and I fully expect them to beat the Miami Heat outright to even this series. Indiana clearly relaxed a little after taking Game 2 from Miami and earning home-court advantage. Meanwhile, Miami came out in Game 3 wanted to get back its home court. I look for these teams to reverse roles mentally tonight, with the Pacers fighting to get to 2-2, while the Heat realizing that they can lose Game 4 and still have home-court advantage the rest of the way. The Pacers have been one of the best home teams in the league this season. They are 36-12 at home this year, including 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the playoffs. Their Game 3 loss to the Heat was their first home setback of the postseason. Indiana is 24-13 ATS following a loss this season, including 13-5 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more. The Pacers are 13-4 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season. Bet the Pacers in Game 4 Tuesday. |
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05-27-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies -3 | Top | 93-86 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
20* Spurs/Grizzlies Game 4 No-Brainer on Memphis -3
The Memphis Grizzlies have absolutely no quit in them. This team is not going to give in even though they are down 3-0. Memphis still believes it has a chance to come back and win this series against the odds. It starts with a home victory in Game 4 tonight. Before their home loss to the Spurs in Game 3, the Grizzlies were undefeated at home in the playoffs. Their fans will come out and support them like they have all season. Memphis is now 37-10 at home this season. This play falls into a system that is 53-20 (72.6%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MEMPHIS) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). Memphis is 21-6 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Grizzlies are a perfect 7-0 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. They are bouncing back to win by 9.4 points/game in this spot. Bet the Grizzlies Monday. |
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05-26-13 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +110 | Top | 114-96 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
20* Heat/Pacers Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +110
The Indiana Pacers are going to pull off the upset in this series. I'm going to continue to back them in Game 3 tonight as they take a 2-1 series lead on the Miami Heat. Remember, the Pacers took a 2-1 series lead in the playoffs against Miami last year before losing the last three. Also, the Pacers have won two out of three against the Heat this season. They simply match up well with Miami considering Paul George and Lance Stephenson are two of the most underrated defenders in the league. Both George and Stephenson can check Lebron James and Dwyane Wade as well as anyone in the NBA. Plus, the Pacers have a big edge inside with Roy Hibbert and David West. They can exploit Miami's biggest weakness, which is its interior play. Indiana is 36-11 SU & 28-19 ATS at home this season. The Pacers have not lost in the playoffs at home, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in six playoff games. I'll gladly put my hard-earned money on the Pacers as an underdog at home tonight in Game 3. The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Heat are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Conference Finals games. Indiana is 20-11 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog this season. Bet the Pacers on the Money Line Sunday. |
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05-25-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies -5 | Top | 104-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
20* Spurs/Grizzlies Game 3 No-Brainer on Memphis -5
This is a must-win game for the Memphis Grizzlies. After falling short in overtime in Game 2, the Grizzlies find themselves down 2-0. I look for them to play with a sense of urgency, while the Spurs take their foot off of the gas just enough tonight to allow Memphis to win and cover. Memphis has been one of the best home teams in the league all season. It has gone 37-9 SU & 28-16 ATS at home this year. In fact, the Grizzlies have gone a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the playoffs at home, beating the Clippers by 12, 21 and 10 points, and topping the Thunder by 6 points twice. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series in recent meeting as well. The home team has won seven straight meetings between Memphis and San Antonio. Tony Parker continues to be bothered by an injured calf, while Memphis is 100% healthy coming into this one. The Grizzlies are 21-5 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Memphis is 14-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. The Grizzlies are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Bet Memphis in Game 3 Saturday. |
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05-24-13 | Indiana Pacers +7 v. Miami Heat | Top | 97-93 | Win | 100 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
20* Pacers/Heat Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +7
The Indiana Pacers fought hard in Game 1 as they were covering the +8 number for all 53 minutes of that contest. They fell just short, losing on a last-second layup in overtime. This has been a resilient team all year, and I look for them to bounce back in Game 2. I have no doubt the Pacers are capable of winning this game outright, I'm just taking the points for some insurance. As I stated with my play on Indiana in Game 1, this is simply a tough match-up for the Heat, and a great one for the Pacers. Remember, the Pacers took a 2-1 series lead in the playoffs against Miami last year before losing the last three. Also, the Pacers have won two out of three against the Heat this season. They simply match up well with Miami considering Paul George and Lance Stephenson are two of the most underrated defenders in the league. Both George and Stephenson can check Lebron James and Dwyane Wade as well as anyone in the NBA. Plus, the Pacers have a big edge inside with Roy Hibbert and David West. They can exploit Miami's biggest weakness, which is its interior play. Indiana realizes it cannot afford to fall down 2-0 if it wants to win this series. That's why I look for it to lay everything on the line in Game 2, which will be enough to cover this lofty spread. According to some comments after the game, it's clear that the Pacers are more inspired by how close they came to winning in Game 1, rather than disappointed. So, I love the mindset of this team coming in. Indiana is 47-22 ATS in road games after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 25 or more fouls since 1996. The Pacers are 23-13 ATS following a loss this season, and 18-7 ATS after a road loss. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The underdog is 29-14-1 ATS in the last 44 meetings. Bet the Pacers in Game 2 Friday. |
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05-22-13 | Indiana Pacers +8 v. Miami Heat | Top | 102-103 | Win | 100 | 56 h 12 m | Show |
20* Pacers/Heat Game 1 No-Brainer on Indiana +8
I've believed that Indiana has been the most underrated team in the entire 2013 playoffs. Once again, the Pacers are undervalued in Game 1 of this series with the Miami Heat as a massive 8-point road underdog. Miami could not have had an easier path to the Eastern Conference Finals. It got to face the only team in the playoffs with a losing record in Milwaukee, and it also played a depleted Chicago Bulls team that just simply did not have the talent to be competitive. I believe that easy path is going to work against the Heat as they won't be ready for the fight they are going to get from Indiana in Game 1. They have basically just had to go through the motions to this point to win games, but that won't be the case against the Pacers. Plus, Miami is going to be rusty coming into this one. The Heat have not played since beating Chicago 94-91 on May 15th. It had a big layoff after sweeping the Bucks on April 28th, and didn't get to start the Chicago series until May 6th. It would come out rusty and lose to the Bulls 86-93 at home in Game 1. Remember, the Pacers took a 2-1 series lead in the playoffs against Miami last year before losing the last three. Also, the Pacers have won two out of three against the Heat this season. They simply match up well with Miami considering Paul George and Lance Stephenson are two of the most underrated defenders in the league. Both George and Stephenson can check Lebron James and Dwyane Wade as well as anyone in the NBA. Plus, the Pacers have a big edge inside with Roy Hibbert and David West. They can exploit Miami's biggest weakness, which is its interior play. The Pacers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Indiana is 39-18 ATS after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent since 1996. The Pacers are 46-26 ATS in road games after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 25 or more fouls since 1996. Bet Indiana Wednesday. |
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05-21-13 | Memphis Grizzlies +5.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 89-93 | Win | 100 | 33 h 42 m | Show |
20* Grizzlies/Spurs Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +5.5
Almost everything that could go right for San Antonio in Game 1 of this series did. The Spurs shot 52.6% from the field, including 14-of-29 (48.3%) from 3-point range. I look for Memphis to make the proper adjustments, which will certainly help cool off the Spurs as they clearly won't shoot nearly that well again. This has been a resilient Grizzlies' team all year, and I fully expect them to give San Antonio all it can handle in Game 2. Memphis is still a blistering 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall. San Antonio should not be a bigger favorite than it was in Game 1, which is another reason why I believe there is a lot of value in backing the Grizzlies here in Game 2. The public is overreacting from the Spurs' blowout win in Game 1. The Grizzlies are 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Lionel Hollins is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more as the coach of Memphis. Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday. |
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05-19-13 | Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 83-105 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
20* Spurs/Grizzlies Game 1 No-Brainer on Memphis +4.5
The Memphis Grizzlies are a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall. This has been the most underrated team in the league all season, and it's still the case in the playoffs. I would normally have a longer analysis than this, but there's just no need to beat around the bush. Memphis is going to win this Game 1 outright, but I'm just taking the points for some insurance. Bet the Grizzlies Sunday. |
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05-18-13 | New York Knicks v. Indiana Pacers -5 | Top | 99-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
20* Knicks/Pacers Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -5
The Indiana Pacers will close out the New York Knicks in Game 6 in blowout fashion. Indiana hasn't lost at home the entire playoffs, and it's not about to start losing today. This has been one of the best home teams all season, especially in the playoffs. The Pacers are 35-11 SU & 27-19 ATS at home this year, outscoring opponents by 8.6 points/game. New York is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Bet the Pacers Saturday. |
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05-16-13 | Indiana Pacers +5 v. New York Knicks | Top | 75-85 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
20* Pacers/Knicks TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Indiana +5
I look for the Indiana Pacers to take a page out of the Memphis and Miami's books tonight and close this series out in Game 5. That's especially the case with Miami on deck as they want to be as rested as possible going into that series. New York had its chance to get back in this series in Game 4, but fell flat on its faces with yet another double-digit road loss to the Pacers. The Knicks feel like they're already beaten, and I hardly expect them to show up tonight as a result. This play falls into a system that is 72-33 (68.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (NEW YORK) - revenging a road loss vs opponent against opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more. New York is 0-7 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points this season. It is losing in this spot 95.3 to 106.3, or by an average of 11.0 points/game. Bet the Pacers Thursday. |
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05-15-13 | Chicago Bulls +14.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 91-94 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
25* NBA Second Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls +14.5
The Chicago Bulls are showing their best value of the entire playoffs tonight as a massive 14.5-point underdog to the Miami Heat in Game 5. They have already been counted out in this series, and this is when they are at their best. Chicago was up 3-1 on the Brooklyn Nets in the first round, and they would lose the next two games, setting up a Game 7. Almost everyone gave them no chance after blowing that 3-1 lead, but I took them on the money line in Game 7, and they won outright to advance to face Miami. The Bulls simply will not quit. They take after head coach Tom Thibodeau, who refuses to let his team believe that they are down and out. I look for Chicago to take this game right down to the wire with a chance to win in the 4th quarter. Thibodeau is 10-1 ATS when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent as the coach of Chicago. His teams are bouncing back to win 92.4 to 85.5, or by an average of 6.9 points/game in this spot. Miami is 0-7 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive road wins this season. The Heat are 0-9 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. These three trends combine for a 26-1 system backing Chicago. Bet the Bulls Wednesday. |
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05-14-13 | New York Knicks +5.5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 82-93 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
20* Knicks/Pacers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on New York +5.5
This is essentially a must-win situation for the New York Knicks as they cannot afford to fall behind 3-1 in this series against the Indiana Pacers. I look for them to respond well and to win Game 4 to nod this series at 2-2, but I'll take the points for some insurance. After getting upset in Game 1, the Knicks responded very well in Game 2 with a blowout 105-79 victory. This team has proven that it has some resiliency, and I look for that to show tonight on the road in Game 4. New York is 48-28 ATS as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. New York is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a S.U. loss. The Pacers are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. Bet the Knicks Tuesday. |
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05-13-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 184.5 | Top | 97-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
20* Thunder/Grizzlies TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 184.5
As a series goes on, the more teams become familiar with one another, and the tougher it is to score points as a result. That was evident in Game 3 of this series as Memphis beat Oklahoma City 87-81 for 168 combined points. I fully expect this pivotal Game 4 to be similarly low-scoring to Game 3. Memphis controls the tempo playing at home, and it wants to grind it out in the half court. Oklahoma City is unable to run due to Russell Westbrook being out for the season. The UNDER is 5-0 in Thunder last 5 games following a S.U. loss. The UNDER is 21-6-2 in Thunder last 29 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The UNDER is 12-4 in Grizzlies last 16 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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05-12-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Golden State Warriors OVER 198 | Top | 87-97 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
20* Spurs/Warriors ABC Sunday No-Brainer on OVER 198
There is a ton of value on the OVER in Game 4 between the San Antonio and Golden State. The oddsmakers have set this number lower than any of the first three games. The books set the total in the first three games at 203, 204.5 and 201.5. I'll gladly take advantage of this value in Game 4, and you should too. Golden State has been at its best when going small ball, and after losing Game 3, I look for the Warriors to go small ball again. The Spurs are 22-11 to the OVER in road games off a road win over the last 2 seasons. They are combining with their opponents to average 203.3 points/game in this situation. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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05-11-13 | New York Knicks v. Indiana Pacers -4 | 71-82 | Win | 100 | 49 h 51 m | Show | |
15* Knicks/Pacers ABC Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -4
The Indiana Pacers are highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 after getting blown out in Game 2. They stole Game 1, and then proceeded to not show up in Game 2 because they were simply satisfied with taking home-court advantage from the Knicks. That blowout in Game 2 will get their attention, and Indiana will be refocused and playing with a chip on its shoulder Saturday. The Pacers are one of the best home teams in the league this season, going 33-11 while outscoring opponents by 8.5 points/game. Indiana won its first three home playoff games over the Atlanta Hawks by 17, 15 and 13 points. New York is expected to get Amare Stoudemire back in the line-up in this one, and he's likely to play 10-15 minutes. Stoudemire has been a huge plague on this team since Carmelo Anthony joined, and the Knicks for whatever reason struggle with him on the floor. This play falls into a system that is 70-36 (66%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - in a game involving two average shooting teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, good rebounding team (+3 to +5.5 reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game). Mike Woodson is 4-15 ATS in road games in all playoff games in all games he has coached since 1996. Frank Vogel is 34-20 ATS off a road loss as the coach of Indiana. The Pacers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The home team has won six of the last seven meetings with Indiana's Game 1 win in New York being the only exception. Roll with the Pacers Saturday. |
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05-11-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 188 | Top | 81-87 | Win | 100 | 46 h 46 m | Show |
20* Thunder/Grizzlies ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on UNDER 188
I look for a defensive battle tonight between the Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder. The longer a series goes, the more familiar teams become with one another, and the harder it is to score points. Memphis and Oklahoma City combined for 184 points in Game 1 and 192 points in Game 2 for an average of 188 combined points. Given my theory, I believe there is a ton of value in the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday. Neither team really can run, which is a huge edge towards the UNDER. Oklahoma City is playing at a much slower pace without Russell Westbrook, while Memphis is a half-court team at nature, and it will control the tempo playing at home tonight. I look for a similar final score to the Memphis/LAC match-up in Game 3 of Round 1. The Grizzlies won that game 94-82 for 176 combined points. Memphis is scoring 94.1 points/game and allowing 87.2 points/game at home this season for a combined average of 181.3 points/game. This play falls into a system that is 51-26 (66.2%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - in a playoff series which is tied, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. Oklahoma City is 12-4 to the UNDER revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. The Thunder are 17-3 to the UNDER after playing 2 consecutive home games this season. Memphis is 11-1 to the UNDER after playing 2 consecutive games as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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05-10-13 | San Antonio Spurs +2.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 102-92 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
20* Spurs/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio +2.5
The San Antonio Spurs should not be an underdog to the Golden State Warriors in Game 3 Friday. After losing Game 2, I look for the Spurs to come out with a sense of urgency to try and regain home-court advantage with a Game 3 victory. San Antonio has been one of the best road teams in the league all season at 25-18. The Spurs are 51-14 SU in their last 65 meetings with the Warriors, including 21-11 in their last 32 visits to Golden State. This play falls into a system that is 24-6 (80%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days. San Antonio is a deadly 11-1 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. It has come back to win in this spot 107.8 to 95.8, or by an average of 12.0 points/game. Bet the Spurs Friday. |
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05-08-13 | Golden State Warriors v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 205 | Top | 100-91 | Win | 100 | 35 h 40 m | Show |
25* NBA Second Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Warriors/Spurs UNDER 205
I'm siding with the UNDER in this Game 2 between the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors as my best total for the entire second round of the playoffs. I successfully cashed in the OVER in Game 1, but I'm going in the other way in Game 2. After a high-scoring, 129-127 double-overtime victory in Game 1, the books have been forced to set this number higher than it should be. The total was set at 201 for Game 1, and now it's been jacked all the way up to 205, providing us with excellent line value on the UNDER. Golden State shot lights out in Game 1 at 51.0% behind Stephon Curry's amazing shooting display. He put in 44 points, and there's no way the Warriors light it up again like they did in Game 1 as San Antonio makes the proper adjustments. Both teams were simply gassed after playing a double-overtime game. I believe that will carry over into this Game 2 as nearly really looks to run the floor like they normally would. I look for this to be a half-court game, and for the shooting to be off due to the tired legs. This play falls into a system that is 43-12 (78.2%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. San Antonio is 8-1 to the UNDER in home games after scoring 110 points or more this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
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05-07-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 186.5 | Top | 99-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
20* Grizzlies/Thunder TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 186.5
This Memphis vs. Oklahoma City series has defensive battle written all over it. With no Russell Westbrook, the Thunder are virtually forced to play a half-court game, which is exactly what Memphis likes. These teams combined for 184 points in Game 1 with a 93-91 Oklahoma City victory. Memphis shot 42.7% while the Thunder were held to 41.2% shooting. I look for an even lower-scoring game in Game 2 tonight. The UNDER is 20-6 in Grizzlies last 26 vs. NBA Northwest division opponents. The UNDER is 36-17 in Grizzlies last 53 games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 10-1-1 in Thunder last 12 vs. NBA Southwest foes. The UNDER is 20-5-2 in Thunder last 27 games overall. The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Thunder last 17 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. |
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05-07-13 | Indiana Pacers v. New York Knicks OVER 183 | 79-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
15* Pacers/Knicks TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on OVER 183
The books have once again missed their mark on the total in Game 2 of this series just as they did in Game 1. Indiana beat New York 102-95 in Game 1 for 197 combined points despite a total set of just 181.5. What the public and thus the oddsmakers have failed to realize is that Indiana is no longer a slow-it-down, defensive team. That's evident by the fact that the Pacers are 9-3 to the OVER in their last 12 games overall. They have scored 100-plus points in 10 of their last 18 games as well. We all know that the Knicks can fill it up as they are averaging 101.4 points/game at home this season. They managed 95 points in Game 1 despite shooting just 43.2% as a team, including 10-for-28 from Carmelo Anthony and 4-for-15 from J.R. Smith. I look for both Anthony and Smith to be much more efficient tonight, which will lead to 100-plus points for New York. The OVER is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 Conference Semifinals games. The OVER is 11-3 in Pacers last 14 games playing on 1 days rest. The OVER is 4-1 in Knicks last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the OVER in this game Tuesday. |
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05-06-13 | Golden State Warriors v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 201 | Top | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
20* Warriors/Spurs Game 1 No-Brainer on OVER 201
The books have missed their mark badly in Game 1 of this series between Golden State and San Antonio. I believe there is a ton of value with the OVER tonight as both teams put up 100-plus in this one. Golden State has been forced to play small ball due to injuries to a couple of their big men. As a result, it is more vulnerable defensively, and I look for San Antonio to put up a big number because of it. I don't believe the Warriors miss a beat offensively going small ball, though. This play falls into a system that is 47-17 (73.4%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games against opponent after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games. Golden State is 29-16 to the OVER as an underdog this season. The OVER is 4-1 in Spurs last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Warriors are 14-6 to the OVER after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
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05-05-13 | INDIANA GM1 +5.5 v. NEW YORK GM1 | Top | 102-95 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
20* Pacers/Knicks Game 1 No-Brainer on Indiana +5.5
The Indiana Pacers are the most underrated team left in the playoffs. That's once again evident as they are a 5.5-point underdog to the New York Knicks in Game 1 of this series Sunday. I look for Indiana to win this game outright, but I'll take the points for some insurance. The Pacers have won three of their last five meetings with the Knicks. Indiana is 39-20 ATS (+17.0 Units) after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 39% or less since 1996. The Pacers are 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) after 2 straight games outrebounding opponent by 10 or more since 1996. Bet the Pacers Sunday. |
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05-04-13 | CHICAGO GM7 +256 v. BROOKLYN GM7 | Top | 99-93 | Win | 256 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
20* Bulls/Nets Game 7 No-Brainer on Chicago Money Line +256
The Chicago Bulls have been left for dead. Everyone has written them off after losing the last two games after taking a 3-1 series lead. This has been the most resilient team in the league over the last few years, and I look for them to win outright in Game 7. Tom Thibodeau is the is the best motivator there is in the NBA. Thibodeau is 23-8 ATS off a home loss as the coach of Chicago. Thibodea is also 25-9 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of Chicago. The Bulls are actually coming back to win in this spot 97.6 to 88.9, or by an average of 8.7 points/game. Chicago is one of the best road teams in the league this season at 22-22 away from home. Bet the Bulls on the Money Line Saturday. |
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05-03-13 | OKLAHOMA CITY GM6 v. HOUSTON GM6 -1 | Top | 103-94 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
20* Thunder/Rockets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston -1
The Houston Rockets continue to get disrespected by oddsmakers in Game 6 tonight. They have been the better team in the last four games, and clearly in the last three since Russell Westbrook went down with injury. I believe Houston has an excellent chance to become the first NBA team to come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series. They now have advantages all over the floor over Oklahoma City that they did not have when Westbrook was healthy. Westbrook's absence forces Kevin Durant to play the point-forward position, which he is extremely uncomfortable in. The loss of Westbrook clearly shows how good of a player he really is, but it's not being reflected in the odds tonight. Houston is 30-13 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 7.0 points/game. The Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Oklahoma City is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 meetings in Houston. Take the Rockets Friday. |
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05-03-13 | LA CLIPPERS GM6 +6.5 v. MEMPHIS GM6 | Top | 105-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
25* Western Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Clippers +6.5
The Los Angeles Clippers are showing their best value of the entire series tonight as a 6.5-point road underdog in Game 6 to the Memphis Grizzlies. They aren't going to go down without a fight, not with Chris Paul running the show. Yes, Memphis has owned this series for the last three games, but I look for Los Angeles to make the proper adjustments tonight. They haven't gotten anything from their bench as Chris Paul has had to do it all. I look for the bench and role players to finally step up and contribute with their season on the line. Los Angeles is 39-24 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Better yet, the Clippers are 18-7 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Clippers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 2 days rest. Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. Memphis is simply overvalued tonight. Bet the Clippers Friday. |
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05-03-13 | NEW YORK GM6 v. BOSTON GM6 +2 | 88-80 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
15* Celtics/Knicks ESPN Game 6 No-Brainer on Boston +2
The New York Knicks have awoken a sleeping giant. From J.R. Smith saying the series would be over if he had played in Game 4, to the black clothing the Knicks showed up in in Game 5 signifying Boston's funeral, they couldn't possibly be any more stupid. Boston is a team that will never quit as long as Doc Rivers is head coach. This team will show even more fight than it did in Games 4 and 5 in Game 6 tonight in front of a raucous home crowd. I look for the Celtics to win Game 6, and to have an excellent chance to be the first team to come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series. Remember, New York hasn't won a playoff series since 2000, so all of the pressure is on the Knicks. It's not going to be easy to win in Boston where the Celtics are 28-14 SU & 23-18-1 ATS on the season. The Celtics are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 home games. Boston is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Knicks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Conference Quarterfinals games. Roll with the Celtics Friday. |
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05-02-13 | DENVER GM6 v. GOLDEN STATE GM6 -1 | Top | 88-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
20* Nuggets/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -1
The Golden State Warriors will close out this series with the Denver Nuggets tonight in Game 6. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series with Golden State being the only road team to win, and it did so emphatically with a 131-117 triumph in Game 2. Oracle Arena is one of the best atmospheres in the league come playoff time. It has been a huge advantage for the Warriors all season as they are 30-13 at home on the year. It will be rockin' for Stephon Curry and company tonight. There's a reason why Golden State is a perfect 5-0 ATS in this series. Denver is simply overvalued as it is getting treated like the team that it was in the regular season, and not the one that it is now. The Nuggets clearly miss Danilo Gallinari as they aren't the same dynamic team without him. The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games. The Warriors are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. Golden State is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games overall. These three trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing Golden State. Bet the Warriors Thursday. |
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05-01-13 | Houston Rockets +8.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 107-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
20* Rockets/Thunder TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +8.5
The books have missed the mark badly on this Game 5 between the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder. The last three games in this series have been decided by a total of 8 points, which is less than tonight's spread of 8.5. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Rockets, who are playing with nothing to lose the rest of the way after everyone counted them out down 3-0. The fact of the matter is that Houston could be the team up 3-1 right now had a couple more breaks gone their way. Oklahoma City has no business being this heavily favored without Russell Westbrook. It is not nearly as dynamic without him, which will make it hard for the Thunder to cover this inflated number tonight even if they do win. The Rockets are 102-64 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games since 1996. Houston is 21-9 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts this season. Bet the Rockets Wednesday. |
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05-01-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -7 | 83-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
15* Hawks/Pacers NBA TV No-Brainer on Indiana -7
Home-court advantage has simply been huge in this series between Indiana and Atlanta. The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in four meetings, winning by double-digits each time. I look for that trend to continue in Game 5 Wednesday. The home team has now won eight straight meetings between these teams dating back to the regular season. Indiana is 32-11 at home this season where it is outscoring its opponents by an average of 8.1 points/game. Atlanta is 10-26 ATS in its last 36 playoff road games. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Pacers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The home team is 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings. The favorite is 23-6 ATS in the last 29 meetings. Roll with the Pacers Wednesday. |
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05-01-13 | Boston Celtics +9 v. New York Knicks | 92-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
15* Celtics/Knicks TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston +9
After falling behind 3-0, the Boston Celtics could have easily quit. Instead, they scratched out a hard-fought overtime victory in Game 4, and they're certainly not about to pack it in now. Boston will be motivated by J.R. Smith's comments in which he said if he played in Game 4, this series would have been over. The Celtics want to prove that that's not the case, and I believe Smith made a big mistake by opening his mouth about it whether he believes it or not. New York is 1-8 ATS in home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season. The Knicks are 2-11 ATS when playing 5 or less games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are 19-9 ATS in the last 28 meetings in New York. Take Boston Wednesday. |
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04-30-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Los Angeles Clippers -5 | Top | 103-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
20* Grizzlies/Clippers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -5
The home team has won each of the first four meetings in this series with three of them being blowouts. After Memphis took care of business in Games 3 and 4 at home, I look for Los Angeles to return the favor at home in Game 5 with a blowout victory. Chris Paul, one of the most underrated leaders in the game, will rally his troops and have everyone hitting on all cylinders tonight. Paul hasn't been getting much help since Game 1, but playing at home tonight, I look for the role players to feel a lot more comfortable, which will allow them to contribute a lot more. Los Angeles is 39-23 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Better yet, the Clippers are 18-6 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Clippers Tuesday. |
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04-29-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Houston Rockets UNDER 206.5 | 103-105 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
15* Thunder/Rockets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 206.5
The Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder are becoming very familiar with one another. As a result, each game since Game 1 has been lowing scoring. I look for that trend to continue tonight in this Game 4. These teams combined for 211 points in Game 1, 207 Game 2 and 205 in Game 3. With their playoff lives at stake, I look for the Rockets to put forth their best defensive effort of the series tonight. It's certainly much easier defending Oklahoma City considering it is without Russell Westbrook for the remainder of the playoffs. I don't expect the Thunder to get to 100 points tonight for the first time in this series. They simply cannot push the pace like they usually would with Westbrook on the floor. This play falls into a system that is 52-17 (75.4%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (HOUSTON) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. Take the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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04-29-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 186 | Top | 91-102 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
20* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Hawks UNDER 186
The Indiana Pacers and Atlanta Hawks will play part in a defensive battle in this all-important Game 4. With Indiana leading the series 2-1, there is a lot at stake here. The more teams play each other, the more familiar they become with one another, and the harder it is to score. That was certainly the case in Game 3 as Atlanta beat Indiana 90-69 for 159 combined points. While the Hawks shot just 42.7 percent from the floor, they were able to blow out the Pacers by limiting them to just 27.2 percent shooting. The UNDER is 7-2 in Hawks last 9 home games. The UNDER is 13-5 in Hawks last 18 Conference Quarterfinals games. The UNDER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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04-28-13 | Denver Nuggets -1.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 101-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
20* Nuggets/Warriors NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on Denver -1.5
The Denver Nuggets get the call Sunday in a must-win Game 4 over the Golden State Warriors. Denver cannot afford to go down 1-3 with a loss, thus I look for them to do whatever it takes to win Game 4. This play falls into a system that is 34-10 (77.3%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days. Denver is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season. The Nuggets are 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons. Golden State is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. Bet the Nuggets Sunday. |
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04-27-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Houston Rockets +1.5 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
20* Rockets/Thunder Side & Total Parlay on Houston +1.5/UNDER 207.5
I am backing the Houston Rockets and the UNDER tonight as they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3. My main reason for taking both plays is that Russell Westbrook will be out due to a torn meniscus in his knee. The Thunder will be lost without their point guard on the floor tonight. As they struggle, it will prove just how important Westbrook is to this team. He constantly gets bashed in the media for taking too many shots, but the fact of the matter is the Thunder are better when he's being aggressive. Without Westbrook, the Thunder are going to get much fewer fast break opportunities. They will look to slow it down and run their offense through Kevin Durant almost every time down the floor. The old man Derek Fisher will be running the point guard mostly tonight, and he doesn't have the ability to push the tempo. The UNDER falls into a system that is 38-10 (79.2%) since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series. Houston is 11-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. In fact, the Rockets are a perfect 8-0 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Rockets and the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday. |
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04-27-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Houston Rockets UNDER 207.5 | Top | 104-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
20* Rockets/Thunder Side & Total Parlay on Houston +1.5/UNDER 207.5
I am backing the Houston Rockets and the UNDER tonight as they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3. My main reason for taking both plays is that Russell Westbrook will be out due to a torn meniscus in his knee. The Thunder will be lost without their point guard on the floor tonight. As they struggle, it will prove just how important Westbrook is to this team. He constantly gets bashed in the media for taking too many shots, but the fact of the matter is the Thunder are better when he's being aggressive. Without Westbrook, the Thunder are going to get much fewer fast break opportunities. They will look to slow it down and run their offense through Kevin Durant almost every time down the floor. The old man Derek Fisher will be running the point guard mostly tonight, and he doesn't have the ability to push the tempo. The UNDER falls into a system that is 38-10 (79.2%) since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series. Houston is 11-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. In fact, the Rockets are a perfect 8-0 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Rockets and the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday. |
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04-26-13 | Denver Nuggets +1 v. Golden State Warriors | 108-110 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
15* Nuggets/Warriors ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +1
The Denver Nuggets are showing solid value as a pick 'em tonight against the Golden State Warriors. After losing Game 2 in upset fashion, I look for the Nuggets to come out extra motivated tonight in Game 3 to regain home-court advantage for the series. Golden State shot out of its mind in Game 2, and that's not going to happen again. It can play well one game without second-leading scorer David Lee, but it will not happen two games in a row. That's especially the case considering Stephen Curry is banged up right now after twisting his ankle in Game 2. While Curry is listed as probable, there's no question he will not be at 100%. This guy has had chronic ankle problems throughout his career. Denver is 19-4 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season. The Nuggets are 8-1 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. The Nuggets are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Take the Nuggets Friday. |
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04-26-13 | New York Knicks v. Boston Celtics -2.5 | Top | 90-76 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
20* Knicks/Celtics ESPN Game 3 No-Brainer on Boston -2.5
Whatever the Boston Celtics have to give tonight, they will be laying it all on the floor in Game 3. It's do or die for Boston, which can't afford to fall behind 0-3 in this series to the New York Knicks if it wants to continue to play past this round. That's why I am backing the Celtics tonight knowing they'll be giving 110%, which will be more than enough to cover this generous 2.5-point spread in Game 3. Boston is a resilient team that will not back down under the guidance of Doc Rivers. Boston is 27-13 at home this season. The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. New York is 3-15 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. Doc Rivers is 34-17 ATS off a loss against a division rival as the coach of Boston. Rivers is 41-26 ATS when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent as the coach of Boston. Mike Woodson is 2-14 ATS in road games in all playoff games in all games he has coached since 1996. Bet the Celtics Thursday. |
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04-25-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 180 | 82-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
15* Clippers/Grizzlies TNT Thursday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 180
The longer a series goes, the more familiar teams become with one another. That makes points harder to come by. I believe there is a ton of value with the UNDER in this Game 3 between Memphis and Los Angeles for a couple different reason. The most important reason is the fact that this game will be played in Memphis. The home team tends to control the tempo in a playoff series, and no team likes to slow it down and grind it out as much as the Grizzlies. The first two games in this series went OVER the total with a 112-91 Game 1 win and a 93-91 Game 2 victory by Los Angeles. That has provided us with some line value on the UNDER in Game 3 as the books have not lowered this total like they should have. In fact, it has been set higher than it was in the first two games in LA. Memphis is 12-1 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. The Grizzlies are 10-1 to the UNDER after playing 2 consecutive games as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Memphis. These three trends combine for a 26-2 system backing the UNDER tonight. Take the UNDER in Game 3 Thursday. |
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04-25-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 181.5 | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
20* Nets/Bulls Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 181.5
I look for a defensive battle tonight between the Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets in Game 3. As teams become more familiar with each other, points become even harder to come by as a series progresses. After Chicago beat Brooklyn 90-82 in Game 2 for 172 combined points, I don't look for these teams to combine to exceed even that number tonight. I don't expect either team to get to 90 points in this one. This play falls into a system that is 32-10 (76.2%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (CHICAGO) - in a playoff series which is tied, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. Brooklyn is 18-6 to the UNDER when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season. Chicago is 12-4 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. The UNDER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago. Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Thursday. |
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04-24-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 188 | Top | 98-113 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 29 m | Show |
20* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Pacers UNDER 188
The books have overcompensated for a high-scoring Game 1 between Atlanta and Indiana. The Pacers beat the Hawks 107-90 for 197 combined points in a game that had the total set at 185.5 as the closing line. Now, the books have jacked this total up a couple points to 188, and I find a ton of value in backing the under. With their playoff lives at stake, I look for a much better effort defensively from the Hawks as they try to steal Game 2 after giving up 50% shooting and 107 points in Game 1. Indiana always brings it defensively, and that will be the case once again in Game 2 after limiting the Hawks to 44.9% shooting and 90 points in Game 1. The Pacers only yield 41.4% shooting and 89.9 points/game at home this season. This play falls into a system that is 34-13 (72.3%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (INDIANA) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. Atlanta is 75-48 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The Hawks are 21-6 to the UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
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04-23-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 207.5 | 131-117 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 29 m | Show | |
15* Warriors/Nuggets TNT Tuesday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 207.5
The Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets will play part in a defensive battle Tuesday in Game 2. I look for this game to take on a similar combined score as Game 1, which saw 192 combined points in a 97-95 home victory by Denver. Golden State has lost David Lee for the rest of the playoffs to a hip injury. That hurts them a lot more offensively than it does defensively as Lee is a huge weapon on offense. He is second on the team in scoring at 18.5 points/game while shooting 51.9 percent from the field. Lee's absence means guys like Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli and Draymond Green are going to have to play bigger minutes. All three of these guys are known as elite defenders and sub-par offensive players. Denver is having to rely a lot more on defense with the loss of second-leading scorer Danilo Gallinari (16.2 PPG) due to a season-ending ankle injury. Also, Kenneth Faried is expected to return for Game 2 after missing Game 1, and his rebounding will be huge for the Nuggets defensively. This play falls into a system that is 70-28 (71.4%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday. |
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04-23-13 | Boston Celtics +6.5 v. New York Knicks | Top | 71-87 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
25* NBA Opening Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics +6.5
In Game 2 against the New York Knicks Tuesday, the Boston Celtics represent my strongest side for the entire first round of the NBA Playoffs. I fully expect them to win this game outright, but I'm taking the points for some insurance. Like the Bulls who won their Game 2 against Brooklyn on the road, the Celtics are one of the most resilient teams in the league. They are a reflection of head coach Doc Rivers, who like Tom Thibodeau, is one of the most competitive coaches in the league. Boston simply gave away Game 1 with turnovers in an 85-78 loss to New York. I look for it to learn from its mistakes, and for its defense to be rock-solid once again as it always is in the playoffs. Rivers and company will make the proper adjustments in Game 2. This play falls into a system that is 27-8 (77.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (BOSTON) - off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days. Boston is 13-2 ATS off a road loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. The Celtics are 23-9 ATS in road games off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points since 1996. Rivers is 34-18 ATS in road games when playing with 2 days rest as the coach of Boston. The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The Knicks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Conference Quarterfinals games. Bet the Celtics Tuesday. |
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04-22-13 | Chicago Bulls +5 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 90-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
20* Bulls/Nets TNT Monday No-Brainer on Chicago +5
The Chicago Bulls are showing great value as a 5-point underdog to the Brooklyn Nets Monday. After getting blown out in Game 1, I look for the Bulls to bounce back with an outright victory in Game 2, but I'll take the points for some insurance. I believe Brooklyn's 106-89 Game 1 victory was simply an aberration. Chicago had won three of the four meetings during the regular season. Its only loss was a 4-point setback at Brooklyn. The Bulls have been one of the most resilient teams in the league ever since Tom Thibodeau took over as head coach. Thibodeau is 50-31 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of Chicago. P.J. Carlesimo hasn't been the best motivator following a blowout win throughout his coaching career. Carlesimo is in home games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half in all games he has coached since 1996. His teams are losing 89.2 to 96.2 on average in this spot. Bet the Bulls Monday. |
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04-21-13 | Los Angeles Lakers v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 192.5 | Top | 79-91 | Win | 100 | 74 h 55 m | Show |
20* Lakers/Spurs ABC Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 192.5
The books have set the bar way too high in this game between the Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs. I'll gladly take advantage by backing the UNDER in Game 1 in what will be a low-scoring, defensive battle. Los Angeles' scheme has changed completely since losing Kobe Bryant for the season. They now have to slow the game down and run their offense through big men Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol, which is something they probably should have been doing more of all season. The results have been absolutely stunning. They are playing better as a team, especially defensively as their opponents get less possessions. The Lakers beat the Spurs 91-86 on April 14th in their first game without Kobe for 177 combined points. They came back with a 99-95 (OT) victory over the high-scoring Houston Rockets on April 17th in a game that was tied 90-90 at the end of regulation for 180 combined points. This play falls into a system that is 76-36 (67.9%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, on Sunday games. San Antonio is 7-0 to the UNDER versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=27 free throws/game this season. The UNDER is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 Sunday games, 3-0-2 in their last 5 games when playing on 3 or more days rest, and 4-0 in their last 4 Conference Quarterfinal games. These four trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the UNDER. Also, the UNDER is 21-7 in the last 28 meetings in this series. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. Note - I locked this play in as soon as the lines came out on Thursday. It has already dropped a couple points. I still recommend the UNDER as a 20* play at anything 189 or above. Anything less it drops to a 15* play. |
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04-21-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -6.5 | 90-107 | Win | 100 | 71 h 19 m | Show | |
15* Hawks/Pacers TNT Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -6.5
I look for the Indiana Pacers to roll to a blowout victory over the Atlanta Hawks in Game 1 of this series Sunday. The Pacers are the most underrated team heading into the 2013 playoffs, and I believe they have the best shot of beating the Miami Heat down the road. Their run to the Eastern Conference Finals starts with this Game 1 against the hapless Atlanta Hawks, who stumbled into the playoffs losing five of their final seven games. A big reason for their struggles have been injuries to Josh Smith (knee) and Al Horford (shoulder), who are their two best players. While each is expected to give it a go in Game 1, neither will be at 100%. Indiana has done an excellent job of protecting its home court all season. It is 30-11 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 7.7 points/game. One look at the recent history in this series and it's easy to see that home-court advantage is huge. The home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings in this series between Atlanta and Indiana dating back to 2010. The Pacers won both home meetings this season with a 114-103 victory on February 5th, and a 100-94 triumph on March 25th. The home team is 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings. Take the Pacers Sunday. |
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04-20-13 | Chicago Bulls +5 v. Brooklyn Nets | 89-106 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 28 m | Show | |
15* Bulls/Nets ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Chicago +5
The Chicago Bulls are finally getting healthy heading into the 2013 NBA playoffs. Sure, they're still missing Derrick Rose, but they have been used to that for over a year now. The key is getting Noah, Gibson, Hamilton and company healthy. When they are healthy aside from Rose, the Bulls are capable of beating anyone in the league. I look for them to go into Brooklyn and steal Game 1 Saturday, which is the easiest game for an underdog to win in any series. Chicago clearly matches up well with Brooklyn given their season history. The Bulls went 3-1 in their four meetings with the Nets with their only loss coming by a final of 89-93 on February 1st in Brooklyn. They have now won seven of the last nine meetings in this series dating back to 2011. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Chicago is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 meetings in Brooklyn. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games. These four trends combine for an 18-1 (95%) system backing Chicago. Roll with the Bulls Saturday. |
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04-20-13 | Boston Celtics +7.5 v. New York Knicks | 78-85 | Win | 100 | 49 h 19 m | Show | |
15* Celtics/Knicks ABC Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston +7.5
The Boston Celtics are showing tremendous value as a big road underdog to the New York Knicks in Game 1 of this series Saturday. Remember, this is a Boston team that took Miami to a Game 7 in the Eastern Conference Finals last year. What I'm saying is that Doc Rivers always has his teams playing their best basketball in the playoffs. That's why he is one of the best head coaches in the league, and I look for him to have the Celtics hitting on all Cylinders in Game 1 Saturday. New York is being overvalued here due to earning the No. 2 seed in the playoffs, and due to beating the Celtics each of the last three times these teams met in the regular season. That will only add fuel to Boston's fire as they want revenge. The easiest game for an underdog to steal is Game 1 of a series. The Knicks have won exactly ONE playoff game over the past 11 seasons. Carmelo Anthony has a 17-37 career playoff record, which is one of the worst marks for any individual player in NBA history. Yet, the team continues to get so much respect from oddsmakers. Boston is 12-2 ATS off a road loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. It is coming back to win in this spot by a whopping 11.0 points/game. The Celtics are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take the Celtics Saturday. |
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04-20-13 | Boston Celtics v. New York Knicks UNDER 193.5 | Top | 78-85 | Win | 100 | 49 h 23 m | Show |
25* NBA Opening Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Celtics/Knicks UNDER 193.5
The books have set the bar too high in this Game 1 showdown between the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks. These two Eastern Conference rivals will play part in a defensive battle today in New York. Playoff basketball brings out the best intensity defensively in most teams, especially these two. New York is expected to get several of its top defenders back for the playoffs in Tyson Chandler, Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby. That will make this team a lot harder to score against. These are two of the better defensive teams in the league. New York allows just 95.7 points/game overall and 94.0 points/game at home. Both of those numbers will go down now that they are healthy. Boston yields 96.7 points/game overall while scoring just 94.6 points/game on the road. All four meetings between these teams this season have seen less than 200 combined points. Considering they have played four times already this year, they are obviously very familiar with one another. Familiarity breeds low-scoring games. New York is 8-0 to the UNDER in home games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Knicks are combining with their opponents to average 183.6 points/game in this spot. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. Note - I locked this play in right when the lines came out on Thursday. I can see this total is already dropping. I still recommend a bet on the UNDER as a 25* play at 190 or more. Anything less makes it a 20* play for you. |
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04-17-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Charlotte Bobcats -2.5 | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats -2.5
The Charlotte Bobcats (20-61) are tied with the Orlando Magic for the worst record in the league. As most of you remember, they set an NBA record for futility last season by winning the lowest percentage of games in a season in NBA history. Charlotte doesn't want to be known as the worst team in the league for a second straight season, so it will be laying it all on the line to get a victory tonight. It has been playing well down the stretch, especially at home. The Bobcats have won seven of their last nine home games following back-to-back wins over Milwaukee and New York. Cleveland has clearly packed it in, losing five straight and 15 of its last 17 games overall coming in. Cleveland is 5-15 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. The Cavaliers are 5-15 ATS after a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Cleveland is 15-29 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the Bobcats Wednesday. |
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04-17-13 | Minnesota Timberwolves +9 v. San Antonio Spurs | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +9
The San Antonio Spurs have no business being a 9-point favorite over the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. San Antonio has absolutely nothing to play for as it is locked into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. The Spurs rested Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard in a 96-106 loss at Golden State on Monday. While all three of these players are listed as probable to play tonight, it's only because Greg Popovich wants to make sure they aren't rusty heading into the playoffs. San Antonio won't be thinking about beating Minnesota tonight, let alone beating it by double-digits, which is what it would take to cover this massive spread. The Timberwolves realize this is their final game of the season, and I look for them to lay it all on the line because of it. Minnesota is 25-14 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. San Antonio is just 12-21 ATS in the second half of the season this season. Take the Timberwolves Wednesday. |
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04-17-13 | Utah Jazz v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 180.5 | 70-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
15* Jazz/Grizzlies ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 180.5
With something at stake for both Utah and Memphis, I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight. Utah needs a win and a Lakers' loss to make the playoffs, while Memphis need a win and a Clippers' loss to earn home-court advantage in the Western Conference. Playing at home, Memphis will control the tempo in this one, which has been at a snail's pace of late. The UNDER is 7-1 in the Grizzlies' last 8 games overall with combined scores of 182, 170, 170, 176, 179, 160, 178 and 200 points. I look for this game to be played a similar pace as the last time these teams met up on March 16th about a month ago. Memphis won 90-84 at home for 174 combined points. Baskets will be hard to come by with the kind of effort each team will be giving defensively with what's at stake. Memphis is 26-9 to the UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 20-7 to the UNDER after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. Utah is 20-9 to the UNDER after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
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04-17-13 | Orlando Magic +5.5 v. Miami Heat | 93-105 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +5.5
The Miami Heat have nothing to play for as they have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the East and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. I'll gladly fade them when they shouldn't even be favored against Orlando tonight given the scenario. Lebron James, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade are all doubtful heading into this one. Ray Allen, Udonis Haslem and Shane Battier are questionable. All Miami is concerned about is getting healthy for its opening round match-up with Milwaukee, not beating Orlando tonight. I look for the Magic to lay it all on the line in this game. It will be their final game of the season, and they want to beat their in-state rivals. Even more, they are tied with the Charlotte Bobcats at 20-61 on the season for the league's worst record. They don't want to be known as the worst team in the league. This play falls into a system that is 69-28 (71.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (ORLANDO) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games. Bet the Magic Wednesday. |
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04-17-13 | Detroit Pistons +5.5 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 99-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +5.5
I'm fading the Brooklyn Nets once again tonight because they have nothing to play for as they are already locked into the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference. I did so with success Monday as the Wizards +6 covered at Brooklyn. The Nets rested Deron Williams, Brooke Lopez and Reggie Evans in that game against Washington. It would be foolish for them to play any of their starters in this one as the most important thing is to be healthy going into the playoffs. It doesn't matter who the Nets put on the floor in this one. Whoever is out there will be looking ahead to the playoffs and not interested at all in beating the Pistons. Detroit, meanwhile, wants to win this game knowing it will be its last contest of the season. The Pistons have been playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch, too. They have won four straight coming in, and they are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. All three of their outright losses during this span have come by 6 points or less. Bet the Pistons Wednesday. |
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04-16-13 | Toronto Raptors v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 197.5 | Top | 113-96 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Hawks UNDER 197.5
The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks Tuesday night. This is a very important game for Atlanta as it tries to lock up the No. 5 seed in the East. I look for it to be on top of its game defensively because of it. Toronto has been playing very well of late, winning five of its last six games overall. While it hasn't been hitting on all cylinders offensively, it has been winning because of solid defense. The Raptors are scoring 92.8 points/game and allowing 90.7 points/game in their last six games overall, combining with their opponents to average 183.5 points/game. My biggest reason for backing the UNDER tonight is the recent head-to-head history between these teams. The Raptors and Hawks have combined for 196 or less points in each of their last seven meetings dating back to 2011. They have combined to average 186.4 points/game over this span. This play falls into a system that is 32-9 (78%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (TORONTO) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. |
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04-15-13 | Houston Rockets v. Phoenix Suns +7 | 112-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +7
The Phoenix Suns want revenge from a 98-101 road loss as a 14.5-point underdog to the Houston Rockets on April 9th less than a week ago. Jermaine O'Neal was called for goaltending at the buzzer on a questionable call. Houston has little to play for right now as it is guaranteed to be either the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the Western Conference. I have a hard time seeing the Rockets being motivated enough to beat a team they just beat less than a week ago by more than 7 points tonight. Phoenix comes in the fresher team as well. The Suns will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Rockets will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after beating the Sacramento Kings at home last night. The Rockets are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Rockets are 9-19 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Suns Monday. |
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04-15-13 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Detroit Pistons -3 | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -3
The Detroit Pistons will run away with a victory tonight at home over the Philadelphia 76ers. I like how the Pistons are playing down the stretch as they clearly are not packing it in just yet. They are playing out their season. That's evident by the fact that the Pistons are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. They have also won three straight coming in with victories over the Bulls, Cavs and Bobcats by a combined 41 points. Detroit comes in well-rested on two days' rest having last played on Friday in a 113-93 home victory over the Charlotte Bobcats. Philadelphia is a tired team as it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days after a 91-77 home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers last night. The 76ers are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games playing on 0 days rest. Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Roll with Detroit Monday. |
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04-15-13 | Washington Wizards +6 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Wizards +6
The Washington Wizards get the nod Monday as a road underdog to the Brooklyn Nets in a game I fully expect them to win outright. I'm only taking the points for some added insurance in this one folks. The Wizards have been one of the most underrated teams in the league all season. That's evident by the fact that they are 45-34-1 ATS in all games this year. Off four straight losses with three coming against playoff contenders, the Wizards will be hungry for a win tonight. Brooklyn has no reason to even be motivated to play this game Monday. That's because it has already wrapped up the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. It is locked into the No. 4 seed as it cannot move up or down. Making sure they're fresh for the playoffs is a much bigger priority. Deron Williams is one of several players who could be rested tonight against the Wizards, so I have no doubt that the Wizards will be putting the more talented team on the floor. Plus, Washington will be the much fresher team as it will be playing on two days' rest having last played on Friday in a loss to Philadelphia. Brooklyn will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days following an 87-93 loss at Toronto Sunday. The Wizards are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Nets are 17-35-2 ATS in their last 54 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Brooklyn is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 home games. Take the Wizards Monday. |
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04-15-13 | New York Knicks v. Charlotte Bobcats -1 | 95-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Bobcats -1
The Charlotte Bobcats are showing solid value at home against the New York Knicks tonight. The Knicks are in a huge letdown spot in this one, and I don't even expect them to show up as a result. New York is surely going to rest several of its key players after clinching the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference with a 90-80 home victory over the Indiana Pacers Sunday. Now, it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days short-handed. Carmelo Anthony is expected to rest. New York - still without big men Tyson Chandler, Kenyon Martin, Amare Stoudemire, Rasheed Wallace and Marcus Camby - is ready to get some rest. The Bobcats have lost 14 straight and 21 of 22 on the road, but they're playing well at home toward season's end. Charlotte beat Milwaukee 95-85 on Saturday for its sixth win in eight games at Time Warner Cable Arena. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic opponents. Bet Charlotte Monday. |
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04-14-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 196.5 | Top | 86-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
20* Spurs/Lakers NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 196.5
The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs. Both teams have a lot to play for, and I look for a defensive battle because of it. Los Angeles is fighting to make the playoffs as the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference. San Antonio is battling it out with Oklahoma City for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. This play falls into a system that is 75-35 (68.2%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, on Sunday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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04-14-13 | Indiana Pacers v. New York Knicks UNDER 194 | 80-90 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
15* Knicks/Pacers NBA Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 194
The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers. This is a huge game in the Eastern Conference as both teams are fighting to earn that coveted No. 2 seed in the East to get home-court advantage through the first two rounds of the playoffs. This play falls into a system that is 130-67 (66%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (INDIANA) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, on Sunday games. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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04-13-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies -3 | 91-87 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
15* Clippers/Grizzlies NBA Saturday No-Brainer on Memphis -3
The Memphis Grizzlies sit at 54-25 on the season, yet they would be just the No. 5 seed in the West if the season were to end today. However, they are tied with the Nuggets at 54-25 for the No. 3 seed, but Denver owns the tiebreaker. With home-court advantage in the first round on the line, the Grizzlies are taking this game more seriously than the Los Angeles Clippers, who already have home-court advantage in the first round locked up after winning the Pacific Division. Memphis has saved its best basketball for last. It is 7-1 in its last eight games overall with its only loss coming on the road to the Los Angeles Lakers by a mere two points (86-84). Getting home-court advantage in the first round is huge considering that the Grizzlies are 31-8 at home this season. The Clippers are a mediocre 22-17 on the road this season, and they barely beat New Orleans 96-93 last night as a 9-point favorite. Both teams come in playing the second of a back-to-back. However, Los Angeles will be the more tired team as this will be its 3rd game in 4 days. This will only be the 2nd game in 4 days for the Grizzlies, who had two days' rest coming into last night's 82-78 road victory at Houston. Memphis is 40-17 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons. The Grizzlies are 26-9 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Clippers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Memphis is 26-10 ATS in its last 36 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the Grizzlies Saturday. |
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04-12-13 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Utah Jazz UNDER 196 | 100-107 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
15* NBA Western Conference Total ANNIHILATOR on T'Wolves/Jazz UNDER 196
This is a very important game for the Utah Jazz tonight as they trail the Los Angeles Lakers by one game for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. I look for them to be timid offensively, but to be at the top of their game defensively with what's at stake. In fact, that has appeared to be the case with the Jazz over the last week as they are really feeling the pressure of trying to make the playoffs. Utah's last three games have resulted in an 80-90 loss to the Thunder for 170 combined points, a 97-90 victory at Golden State for 187 combined points, and a 95-83 victory over New Orleans for 178 combined points. This recent low-scoring trend, plus the head-to-head meetings thus far with the Timberwolves this season, has me backing the UNDER. Utah beat Minnesota 106-84 at home in their first meeting of the season on January 2nd for 190 combined points. The Jazz also won in Minnesota 97-93 on February 13th for 190 combined points. The UNDER is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 10-2 in Jazz last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 7-1 in Jazz last 8 games following a ATS loss. The UNDER is 16-7 in Jazz last 23 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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04-12-13 | Denver Nuggets v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 206.5 | 105-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
15* NBA Western Conference Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Mavericks UNDER 206.5
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks. Denver is trying to secure the No. 3 seed in the West, while Dallas is trying to reach its goal of getting back to .500 on the season. I look for the defensive intensity to be high from both teams because of these scenarios. The Nuggets aren't nearly the potent offensive team they were before they lost Ty Lawson and Danilo Gallinari to injury. They've had to rely a lot more on defense of late, giving up just 87, 96, 94, 114 and 86 points in their last five games overall. That 114-point effort was against the Rockets, so it can be thrown out. Dallas has really been struggling offensively of late, scoring 81, 94, 117, 96 and 91 points in its last five games overall. That 117-point effort was against the Sacramento Kings, so it can really be thrown out as well. When you look at the recent head-to-head history between these teams, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated tonight. In both meetings this season, the Nuggets and Mavs have combined for 189 and 191 points with Denver winning each time. In fact, they have combined for 208 or less in each of their last seven meetings. This play falls into a system that is 29-7 (80.6%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, on Friday nights. The UNDER is 9-2-1 in Nuggets last 12 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Mavericks last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Dallas. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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04-12-13 | New York Knicks v. Cleveland Cavaliers +5 | 101-91 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +5
The New York Knicks just had their 13-game winning streak snapped with a 111-118 (OT) loss to the Chicago Bulls last night. I look for them to suffer a hangover from that defeat, and for the Cleveland Cavaliers to take advantage and likely win this game outright. New York comes in a very tired team as this will be the second of a back-to-back and the 7th game in 11 days for the Knicks. This is a short-handed team as it is with all of its injury problems. Raymond Felton (knee) is questionable, while Marcus Camby, Kenyon Martin, Tyson Chandler, Amare Stoudemire and Rasheed Wallace are all expected to miss tonight's game. Cleveland has played New York very tough this season, but it has come up short in both meetings. The Cavaliers lost 102-103 at New York on December 15th in their first meeting, and 97-102 at home on March 4th in their second. There's no question that Cleveland wants revenge tonight. The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Cleveland. New York is 2-14 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. Cleveland is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Take the Cavaliers Friday. |
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04-12-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 187.5 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets/Pacers UNDER 187.5
The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Brooklyn Nets and Indiana Pacers. With both teams having a lot to play for, I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight when they meet up. Indiana is just two games behind New York for the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. It is also trying to hold off No. 4 Brooklyn, which is trying to secure home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Given these scenarios, the defensive intensity is going to be high tonight. One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. The two meetings between the Pacers and Nets this season have seen 173 and 183 combined points. The final two meetings of last season saw 184 and 181 combined points. They have not topped 184 combined points while averaging 180.3 points/game in their last four meetings. Brooklyn has really picked it up defensively of late, allowing just 91.8 points/game in its last five games overall. Indiana allows just 90.2 points/game overall, including 88.8 points/game at home this season. The Pacers are 19-4 to the UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Nets last 5 Friday games. The UNDER is 20-8 in Nets last 28 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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04-11-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 116-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
20* Thunder/Warriors TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -3.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder realize that they control their own destiny. Tied with the San Antonio Spurs with the best record in the West at 57-21, the Thunder own the tiebreaker. That means they just need to win out and they'll get the No. 1 seed in the West. Golden State has a lot less to play for as it's either going to be the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the West, which isn't a huge difference. The Warriors are being overvalued here because they have won four of five coming in. All four of those victories came against non-playoff teams in the Blazers, Hornets, Suns and Timberwolves with three of them coming at home. Their lone loss was a 90-97 setback at home against the Utah Jazz, who were the only team that had something to play for during this run. The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Oklahoma City is 41-18-3 ATS in its last 62 vs. Western Conference opponents. The Warriors are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Golden State is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games following a S.U. win. Bet the Thunder Thursday. |
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04-10-13 | New Orleans Hornets v. Sacramento Kings OVER 201.5 | 110-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Hornets/Kings OVER 201.5
This is a meaningless game for both the New Orleans Hornets and Sacramento Kings. That's why I believe neither team will be getting after it defensively, which will allow for a high-scoring battle. I fully expect both teams to eclipse the 100-point mark in this one. One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that there is some value with the OVER tonight folks. Both meetings this season have seen 205 or more combined points. New Orleans beat Sacramento 110-95 at home on February 24th in their most recent meeting. The Hornets also beat the Kings 114-105 on January 21st for 219 combined points. Sacramento is 11-1 to the OVER in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 3 seasons. It is seeing an average of 214.4 points/game in this spot. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
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04-10-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Boston Celtics UNDER 193 | Top | 101-93 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
20* Nets/Celtics ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 193
The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle on National TV tonight when these two get together on ESPN. Both teams have a lot to play for as each is trying to improve its seeding. Brooklyn is coming close to clinching the No. 4 spot and home-court advantage in the first round. Boston is trying to avoid dropping to the No. 8 spot, which would mean it would have to face Miami in the first round. One look at the recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. In their two most recent meetings, the Nets and Celtics combined for 169 points on December 25th, and 178 points on November 28th. In fact, the UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with combined scores of 178 or less points eight times. The UNDER is 6-1 in Nets last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
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04-10-13 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Orlando Magic +5 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +5
The Orlando Magic should not be an underdog to the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. Milwaukee is all but locked into the No. 8 seed, which means it will be facing Miami in the first round of the playoffs. Knowing that their fate is already sealed, the Bucks won't show up for this game tonight. They'll be more interested in resting their players in these final few games than winning them. Orlando continues to battle down the stretch as it tries to avoid finishing with the league's worst record. While it has lost five straight coming in, all five losses came on the road with four of them to playoff contenders in Atlanta, Houston, San Antonio and Chicago. Plus, four of those five losses came by 9 points or less, so they were right there with a chance to win. Milwaukee is 1-10 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Bucks are 1-11 ATS after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The Bucks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Magic are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference. Milwaukee is 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. These five trends combine for a 36-2 system backing Orlando. Bet the Magic Wednesday. |
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04-09-13 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 186.5 | 75-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Bobcats/Grizzlies UNDER 186.5
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Charlotte Bobcats and Memphis Grizzlies. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in this contest tonight folks. Memphis is a lockdown defensive team that won't allow the Charlotte Bobcats to exceed 80 points tonight. The Grizzlies only allow 89.7 points/game overall, including 87.6 points/game at home. The Bobcats score just 90.7 points/game on the road this year. One look at the recent history in this series and it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. The last three meetings between the Bobcats and Grizzlies have seen 181, 165 and 178 combined points. That's an average of 174.7 points/game, which is roughly 12 points less than tonight's posted total. In fact, six of the last seven meetings in this series have seen 187 or fewer combined points. Memphis is 7-0 to the UNDER versus poor shooting teams - making <=43% of their shots this season. The UNDER is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 games overall as they have combined with each of their last five opponents for 185 or less points. These two trends combine for a perfect 12-0 system backing the UNDER tonight. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday. |
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04-09-13 | Milwaukee Bucks +6.5 v. Miami Heat | 83-94 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Milwaukee Bucks +6.5
The Miami Heat don't have much to play for the rest of the way after already clinching the No. 1 spot in the Eastern Conference over a week ago. They can still afford to lose a couple more games before having to worry about losing home-court advantage throughout the playoffs against the Western Conference. This scenario is why I believe that the Heat have been resting players down the stretch. They don't really care about the outcome of these games or they wouldn't do it. Once again, they are expected to rest Dwyane Wade (out), and they are likely to rest Chris Bosh (doubtful) as well. Milwaukee has a lot to play for tonight. It can still catch No. 7 Boston in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Even if it doesn't catch the Celtics, it wants to send a message to the Miami Heat that they will be in for a series if the Bucks have to settle for the No. 8 spot. The Bucks have already proven they can play with the Heat this year, winning 104-85 at home on December 29th. They also put up a fight on the road on November 21st, falling 106-113 as a 9.5-point underdog. In fact, Milwaukee is 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last 7 meetings with Miami. Milwaukee is 14-5 ATS in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season. The Heat are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 vs. NBA Central opponents. The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Miami. Take Milwaukee Tuesday. |
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04-09-13 | Washington Wizards +10 v. New York Knicks | Top | 99-120 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
25* NBA GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington Wizards +10
The Washington Wizards represent my strongest release for the entire 2012-13 season Tuesday night as they travel to face the New York Knicks. Every team gets up to play inside of Madison Square Garden, and the Wizards will relish the experience tonight and make the most of it. New York comes in way overvalued due to its 12-game winning streak heading into this one. It has also gone 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games overall, and now oddsmakers have been forced to set the number so high that the Knicks cannot possibly live up to the expectations they have created for themselves. This is a huge letdown spot for New York. That's because it is coming off one of its biggest wins of the season in a 125-120 road victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday. That game was nationally televised on ABC Sunday afternoon. Washington has been one of the most underrated teams in the league all season. That's evident by the fact that it is a very profitable 45-31 ATS in all games this year. The Wizards want to even the season series tonight after dropping two of their first three to New York. They won't have any problem getting motivated to try and put an end to this 10-game winning streak. The Wizards are a sensational 17-3 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent this season. This trend just goes to show how they take payback personally, and 85% of the time they have come back to cover the spread against these opponents. Bet the Wizards Tuesday. |
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04-08-13 | Michigan v. Louisville -3.5 | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
20* Michigan/Louisville NCAA Championship No-Brainer on Louisville -3.5
The Louisville Cardinals will prove that they are the best team in college basketball and deserved of the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament tonight. I look for them to win and cover against overmatched Michigan in this one. The Cardinals just have something special going because of the injury to teammate Kevin Ware. They have really pulled closer together as a team, which helped them overcome a hard-fought game against Wichita State in the Final Four. They simply appear to be a team of destiny at this point. I believe that only having one day to prepare for their opponent will benefit Louisville more than Michigan in this one. That's because the Cardinals are a tougher team to prepare for as they are the best pressing team in the country. They are forcing an average of 18 turnovers/game this season. Louisville is 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS when playing their 2nd road game in 3 days over the last 2 seasons. Louisville is 7-0 ATS in road games after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. These three trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Cardinals. Bet Louisville Monday. |
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04-07-13 | Utah Jazz +5.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 97-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
20* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +5.5
The Utah Jazz are showing excellent value as a 5.5-point underdog to the Golden State Warriors tonight. This is a much more important game for the Jazz (40-37), who trail the Los Angeles Lakers by 0.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Jazz have saved their best basketball of the season for last. In fact, they have won six of their last seven games overall. They are also 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. This team is handling the pressure of trying to make the playoffs very well. The Warriors are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Golden State is 7-17 ATS following two or more consecutive wins this season. Bet the Jazz Sunday. |
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04-07-13 | Los Angeles Lakers +5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | 95-109 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
15* Lakers/Clippers ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles Lakers +5
The Los Angeles Lakers are showing solid value as a 5-point underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers Sunday. This is a much more important game for the Lakers, and because they want it more, they'll cover this spread, likely winning outright. The Lakers are 40-36 on the season, which has them 0.5 games ahead of the Utah Jazz for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They have actually been playing their best basketball of the season of late with the stakes at their highest. The Lakers have won three straight heading into this one with victories over the Kings (103-98), Mavericks (101-81) and Grizzlies (86-84). After losing the first three meetings of the season with the Clippers, the Lakers will clearly be out for revenge today. This play falls into a system that is 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells you to bet on any team (LA LAKERS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after 3 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent. Take the Lakers Sunday. |
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04-06-13 | Michigan v. Syracuse +2.5 | Top | 61-56 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 21 m | Show |
20* Michigan/Syracuse Final Four No-Brainer on Syracuse +2.5
I have been backing both Michigan and Syracuse throughout the NCAA Tournament with a lot of success thus far. Now, it's time to pick between the two, and I have no problem doing so considering this match-up really favors Syracuse. I believe the length of the Orange across the board is going to cause Michigan fits offensively, just as it has for every other team they have faced. In fact, Syracuse has held its first four opponents in the NCAA Tournament to just 45.8 points/game. Syracuse held the almighty Indiana Hoosiers to just 50 points on 34.0% shooting, and a good Marquette team to just 39 points on 22.6% shooting the past two rounds. Its defense is going to be the difference in this game. Most people believe that playing a zone defense means that you're forcing your opponent to try and make 3-pointers to beat you. Well, that's not the case for this Syracuse team, which defends the 3-ball as well as anyone in the country. The Orange only allow their opponents to make 28.2% of their 3-point shots on the season. That's huge because Michigan is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the land at 38.5%. The Orange held Indiana, another great 3-point shooting team, to just 3-of-15 (20%) from distance. Jim Boeheim is 28-13 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick as the coach of Syracuse. The Orange are 24-10 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. Syracuse is 58-35 ATS in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days since 1997. The Orange are 8-2 ATS after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half this season. They are winning in this spot by 23.7 points/game. Bet Syracuse Saturday. |
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04-06-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 193.5 | Top | 97-99 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
20* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Spurs UNDER 193.5
I'm siding with the UNDER in this game between the Atlanta Hawks and San Antonio Spurs. I fully expect a defensive battle between these two solid defensive teams tonight. A big reason I'm backing the UNDER in this contest is the fact that the Spurs are expected to be without Tony Parker (shin) and Manu Ginobli (hamstring), which are two of their best scorers. Also, both teams have been prone to the UNDER of late. Atlanta is 4-0 to the UNDER in its last four games overall, combining with its opponents to average 187.3 points/game. San Antonio is 4-0 to the UNDER in its last four games, combining with its opponents to average 181.5 points/game. One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that the books have inflated this total tonight. The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 191, 188 and 187 points. Atlanta is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) this season. The Hawks are 7-0 to the UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots this season. Atlanta is 8-0 to the UNDER in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Throw in the fact that the UNDER is 4-0 in both team's last four games overall, and we have a combined 30-0 system backing the UNDER in this contest tonight. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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04-05-13 | Houston Rockets -4.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers | 116-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -4.5
While the Houston Rockets have a lot to play for down the stretch, the Portland Trail Blazers have zero to play for at this point. With that in mind, I'll back the Rockets as a small favorite over the Blazers tonight in Portland. Houston (42-33) sits 1.0 game behind Golden State for the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference. Whoever gets that seed will avoid having to face San Antonio and Oklahoma City in the first round, which is huge. The Rockets have been playing well down the stretch, winning three straight over the Clippers, Magic and Kings heading into this one. That includes a 98-81 victory over the Clippers on March 30th. Portland (33-42) is virtually eliminated from postseason contention, and it has been playing like it over the last few weeks. The Blazers have clearly packed it in, losers of six straight while going 0-5-1 ATS in the process. In fact, all six of Portland's losses during this skid have come by double-digits. They were beaten by the Thunder (83-103), Warriors (98-125), and Jazz (102-112) on the road, and the Nets (93-111), Jazz (95-105) and Grizzlies (76-94) at home during this losing streak. Houston beat Portland 118-103 in its last meeting on February 8th, and the Blazers are coming off that 76-94 home loss to Memphis. That's important considering this play falls into a system that is 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against underdogs (PORTLAND) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an embarrassing home loss scoring less than 80 points. Take the Rockets Friday. |
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04-05-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Los Angeles Lakers -2.5 | Top | 84-86 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
20* Grizzlies/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5
Oddsmakers are giving us an absolute gift with the Los Angeles Lakers as only a small home favorite over the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. At 39-36 on the season, the Lakers would be the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference playoffs if the season were to end today. However, Los Angeles is just 0.5 games ahead of the Utah Jazz, so it cannot afford to take a night off from here on out. Adding to the motivation for the Lakers is the fact that they've lost the first two meetings of the season to the Grizzlies, both of which were at Memphis. This is a great spot to back the Lakers considering they will be coming in on two days' rest having last played on Tuesday in a huge 101-81 home win over the Dallas Mavericks. They were without Steve Nash in that game, and they likely will be again tonight, which isn't a big deal at all. In fact, this team has arguably been better without Nash on the floor. It forces Kobe Bryant to become a facilitator, and he did just that against the Mavs. Bryant posted a triple-double with 23 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists. This play falls into a system that is 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on any team (LA LAKERS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after 3 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent. Los Angeles is 23-7 in its last 30 home meetings with Memphis. The Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series. Bet the Lakers Friday. |
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04-05-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns +8 | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +8
The Golden State Warriors are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight as an 8-point road favorite over the Phoenix Suns. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Suns, who have played their best basketball at home this year. Phoenix is 16-22 at home this season, and Golden State is 17-21 on the road. This is a much more evenly-matched game than this line would indicate, which is the reason for backing the Suns at a great price tonight. The Suns will be out for revenge after losing the first three meetings of the season to the Warriors. That includes an 85-87 home loss on October 31st in their lone home meeting. Meanwhile, Golden State will have a hard time getting motivated to face a team it has already beaten three times. I like the Suns' chances for revenge tonight considering they are an amazing 28-5 SU in all home meetings with Golden State dating back to 1996. In fact, their five home losses during this stretch have come by two (87-85), two (106-104), ten (110-100), nine (92-83) and eight points (103-05). That makes for a 30-2-1 ATS angle backing the Suns since 1996. Roll with Phoenix Friday. |
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04-04-13 | Dallas Mavericks +7 v. Denver Nuggets | 94-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
15* NBA GAME OF THE NIGHT on Dallas Mavericks +7
The Dallas Mavericks have fought very hard to get back in position to make a run at the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They trail the Los Angeles Lakers by just 2.5 games for that final spot, and they aren't about to give up now. Dallas catches the Denver Nuggets in a great spot tonight. Denver is coming off a big road win over the Utah Jazz (113-96) last night as it shot a ridiculous 56.2% from the field. That's the second straight game that it has shot better than 56%. The Nuggets are overvalued as a result, and they'll be tired playing the second of a back-to-back as well. Home-court advantage means absolutely nothing in this series. In fact, a look at the recent history indicates that you actually want to be the road team. The visitor has won seven of the last nine meetings overall while going a superb 8-1 ATS. Dallas is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last 4 meetings in Denver with its only loss coming by a single point. The Mavericks are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss. Dallas is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 road games. The Mavericks are 25-8 ATS in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is 13-2 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take the Mavericks Thursday. |