15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Kings OVER 226.5

The Clippers have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team here down the stretch now that they've gotten healthy.  They are 13-7 OVER in their last 20 games overall.  Their last three games have all been shootouts combining for 239 points with the Mavs, 239 with the Spurs and 251 with the Rockets.  They have gone for 239 or more combined points in five of their last nine games overall.

The Kings are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall.  They have gone for 227 or more combined points in five consecutive games.  This total of 226.5 is very low for a game involving the Kings and Clippers right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Golden State Warriors -12

The Golden State Warriors are desperate to avoid the play-in.  They currently sit in 7th place in the West tied with 6th place Memphis.  There is only two games separating them and the 3rd place Lakers.  They have a lot to play for.

The Portland Trail Blazers are clearly tanking with all the guys they are resting.  They are without Simons, Henderson, Grant, Avidja and Ayton and could be without Sharpe tonight.  They don't care about winning this game.  They were upset as 6.5-point favorites by the tanking Jazz last time out.  Bet the Warriors Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on San Antonio Spurs +4.5

The Phoenix Suns have no business being favored against anyone.  The Suns are 0-8 SU in their last eight games and 0-9 ATS in their last nine games.  They have already been eliminated from the playoffs.  They are just ready for their season to be over.

The Spurs are locked into their position in the NBA lottery.  They have no incentive to tank anymore.  They have been competitive here down the stretch even when most thought they should be tanking.

The Spurs have gone 2-3 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are coming off a 114-111 upset road win at Golden State as 17.5-point dogs.  They celebrated like they won the title, so these games clearly mean something to them.  They only lost by 5 to the Clippers as 12.5-point road dogs, and the Clippers are playing as well as anyone.  They lost by 1 to the Cavs as 12.5-point dogs, and they upset the Nuggets as road dogs outright.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Thunder/Jazz OVER 231

Two teams with nothing to play for tonight square off in a game that should feature all offense and zero defense due to the circumstances.  The Jazz are already locked in to a Bottom 3 record in the NBA which gives them a 14% chance of the No. 1 pick.  The Thunder are already locked into the No. 1 seed with home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.

The Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 6th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  The Jazz are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 281, 259, 252 and 248 combined points.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Jazz right now.

The Thunder rested their starters last game and still showed they have plenty of offensive firepower when that's the case.  They are still an elite offensive team but take a big step back defensively without their main guys.  The Thunder beat the Suns 125-112 for 237 combined points.  The OVER is 5-2 in Thunder last seven games overall with 236 or more combined points in five of those seven games.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the Thunder and Jazz with 237 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz +11.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the West and the best record in the NBA thus home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.  They have zero motivation these final two games and will be playing all their backups.

The Utah Jazz no longer have any reason to tank.  They have clinched one of the three worst records in the NBA and will have a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick as a result.  They are trying to win these final games now.

That was evident last time out when they pulled off the 133-126 (OT) upset as 6.5-point underdogs to the Blazers.  They were celebrating like they won the title.  Look for them to relish this opportunity to beat the top team in the West even if they aren't playing their regulars.  Bet the Jazz Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -6.5

The Denver Nuggets responded well to the Mike Malone firing.  They beat the Kings 124-116 as 124-116 as 4.5-point road favorites in their first game since firing Malone.  They have a ton to play for with only 3 games separating the 3rd through 8th seeds in the West, and they desperately don't want to have to play in the play-in.  If they win out they will be the 3rd or 4th seed, which would give them home-court advantage in the 1st round.

But this is as much a fade of the Grizzlies as it is a play on the Nuggets.  The Grizzlies are coming off a 141-125 home loss to the Timberwolves last night.  So they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and in their 3rd different city in 4 days, plus in altitude in Denver to boot.  Jackson Jr. played 37 minutes, Bane 38 and Morant 36 last night.  They won't have much left in the tank tonight.

The Nuggets should be very fresh after having yesterday off and playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  Denver owns Memphis going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Nuggets are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Grizzlies with all five wins coming by 13 points or more.  Bet the Nuggets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +11.5

The Toronto Raptors are locked in to their spot in the NBA lottery.  Even if they weren't, they clearly continue to play hard.  The Raptors are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall and have been one of the best covering teams in the NBA all season.

The Mavericks are getting too much respect here with the fact that they still have something to play for, technically.  But the Mavericks trail the Kings by one game and they lose the tiebreaker with the Kings for the 9th seed and home-court advantage in the play-in.  They would have to win out and have the Kings lose out, which they know is unlikely considering the Kings host the Suns in their next game.  The Suns have quit on their season.

I also think it's a flat spot for the Mavericks for another reason.  They are coming off their huge game against the Lakers with Luka Doncic returning to Dallas.  They put a lot into that game and came up short, and it's the type of loss that could beat them twice.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Wizards/Bulls OVER 235

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace this season.  The Bulls are 9-2-1 OVER in their last 12 games overall with 230 or more combined points in all 12 games.

The Washington Wizards are also a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in pace and 28th in defensive rating.  The Wizards and Bulls have combined for at least 232 points in each of their last four meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Bucks/Pistons NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Detroit -4.5

The Detroit Pistons get to play the Milwaukee Bucks twice in their final two games.  If they win both, they will overtake the Bucks for the 5th seed.  They showed a lot of fight last night erasing a double-digit deficit to beat the Knicks 115-106 at home.

While it will be the 2nd of a back-to-back for the Pistons, they are still going to be the fresher team.  They had two days off prior to last game.  Meanwhile, the Bucks will not only be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but their 5th game in 7 days.  They are already without Lillard and Portis and I wouldn't be surprised if they are cautious with Giannis tonight.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Nets OVER 227.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and play zero defense.  The Hawks are 15-5-1 OVER in their last 21 games overall.  Amazingly, the Hawks and their opponents have combined for at least 233 points in 19 of those 21 games, making for a 19-2 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 227.5-point total.

The Brooklyn Nets are giving their youngsters some run here at the end of the season and they aren't concerned with tanking because they are locked in to their spot in the lottery.  They are all offense and zero defense right now, too.

That is evident by the fact that the Nets are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall.  They won't mind getting in a shootout with the Hawks tonight.  The Hawks and Nets have combined for at least 227 points in six of their last eight meetings.  That includes 236 and 236 points in their first two meetings this season, which both sailed OVER the total as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons -4.5

The Detroit Pistons have a sneaky motivational advantage over the New York Knicks tonight that isn't being factored into this line enough.  And you can read the tea leaves when you look at the injury report for tonight.

The Pistons come in pissed off coming off two consecutive losses to the Grizzlies and Kings.  They have had the last two days off, so they are rested and ready to go.  They have upgraded both Cade Cunningham and Tobias Harris to probable tonight, and they got good news that they may get Jaden Ivey back in time for the playoffs as well.  They play the Bucks in their final two games, so if they win their last three games they could catch the Bucks for the 5th seed.

The New York Knicks are coming off a heartbreaking OT loss to the Celtics.  It's the type of loss that could beat them twice.  The Knicks are currently the 3rd seed in the East, and they wouldn't mind falling down to the 4th seed to let the Pacers pass them.  That would mean a 2nd round series with the Cavaliers instead of the Celtics, which is what I think the Knicks would prefer.

The Knicks have decided to rest two of their best players in Anunoby and Hart tonight.  I wouldn't be surprised if Brunson and Towns are on a minutes restriction as well.  They clearly aren't concerned with winning their final three games of the season.  They just want to get healthy for the playoffs after injuries took their toll on the Knicks in the playoffs last year.  I'll gladly back the healthier, more rested and more motivated team tonight laying the short number at home.  Bet the Pistons Thursday.

15* Rockets/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -6.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are playing better than anyone in the NBA right now.  They have gone 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They rank 1st in net rating (17.1) by a wide margin which is 5 points better than 2nd place (OKC, 12.1) during this stretch.

This run has jumped the Clippers all the way up to 4th place in the West and within one game of the Lakers for the Pacific Division title.  They are in a 4-way tie for the 4th through 7th seeds, so they are one loss away from having to play in the play-in as well.  They cannot afford to take their foot off the gas.

I like the fact that the Clippers rested Kawhi Leonard last night in anticipation of him playing tonight against the Rockets.  While several guys played big minutes for the Clippers last night as a result, they should still be pretty fresh considering they had two days off prior to that game.

While the Clippers have a lot to play for, the Rockets are locked in to the No. 2 deed in the West.  They have zero motivation over their final three games.  They have decided to rest Fred VanVleet tonight, and they may rest Sengun as well as he is listed as questionable.  I'll gladly back the healthier, more motivated team playing the better basketball at home tonight.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Jazz OVER 229

Two teams with nothing to play for tonight square off in a game that should feature all offense and zero defense due to the circumstances.  The Jazz are already locked in to a Bottom 3 record in the NBA which gives them a 14% chance of the No. 1 pick.  The Blazers were just eliminated from playoff contention and are guaranteed to finish either 21st or 22nd.

The Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 7th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  The Jazz are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall with 281, 252 and 248 combined points.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Jazz right now.

The Blazers are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games overall finishing with 229 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  So this total of 229 is also very low for a game involving the Blazers.  

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 231 or more combined points in four of those five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Bulls OVER 225.5

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace this season.  The Bulls are 8-2-1 OVER in their last 11 games overall with 231 or more combined points in all 11 games.  That makes for an 11-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 225.5-point total, which is very low for a game involving the Bulls right now.

The Miami Heat have also been trending OVER here of late.  They are 3-1 OVER in their last four games.  The OVER is 4-2 in the last six meetings with 234 or more combined points in three of their last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Orlando Magic -3.5

I jumped on the Magic -3.5 last night in anticipation that the Boston Celtics would rest their starters.  The Celtics were coming off a 117-115 (OT) win at New York last night in which Tatum played 47 minutes, White 42, Porzingis 38 and Holiday 37.  The Celtics are locked in to the No. 2 seed in the East as well, so they have nothing to play for over the final three games.

Indeed, the Celtics have decided to rest starters with Tatum, White, Porzingis, Holiday and Horford all ruled out and Brown listed questionable.  Their only concern now is keeping guys healthy for the playoffs to make another title run.

The Magic have something at stake and are playing like it.  They are trying to lock down the 7th spot in the play-in which would give them their best chance to make the playoffs.  Orlando is 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in its last nine games overall.

The Magic will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back as well after a 119-112 home win over the Hawks last night, but they had 4 days off prior to that game so they should still be pretty fresh.  And they will be pushing their guys to play again tonight with the 7th seed at stake.  Bet the Magic Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -7

The Golden State Warriors are in a four-way tie for the 5th through 8th seeds in the West.  There is only two games separating the 3rd through 8th seeds as well.  With all these teams motivated to avoid the play-in, we can expect max effort from these six teams the rest of the way.

The Warriors and Steph Curry in particular will be motivated to bounce back from an upset home loss to the Houston Rockets on Sunday.  Curry had his worst game of the season finishing with just 3 points on 1-of-10 shooting.  That was a rare loss for the Warriors, who are 19-3 in games in which Curry and Butler have started together since trading for Butler.

Now the Warriors play a dead Phoenix Suns team that is just ready for this season to be over.  The Suns are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with all six losses coming by double-digits.  Golden State will win by double-digits tonight as well.  Bet the Warriors Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a four-way tie for the 5th through 8th seeds in the West.  There is only two games separating the 3rd through 8th seeds as well.  With all these teams motivated to avoid the play-in, we can expect max effort from these six teams the rest of the way.

While the Timberwolves are max motivated, the Milwaukee Bucks have questionable motivation the rest of the way.  They will either be the 5th or 6th seed in the East.  There's not much difference as their opponent will either be the Knicks or Pacers.  They just want to keep Giannis healthy and give themselves their best chance to make a run in the playoffs.

The Timberwolves are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, clearly showing how motivated they are to get out of the play-in.  I'll gladly back the better, more motivated team tonight laying a short number here.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Orlando Magic -3.5

I love the spot for the Orlando Magic tonight.  They are max rested as they have had the last four days off! They are also max motivated clinging on to the 7th seed and a one-game lead over the Atlanta Hawks for 1st place in the Southeast Division.  They host the Hawks tonight and will be max motivated to get it done.

The Magic have found their groove going 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses coming to the Clippers and Mavericks.  They have home wins over the Lakers by 12 and the Kings by 30 during this stretch, and they have one of the better home-court advantages in the NBA.

The Hawks have gone the other direction, going 2-5 SU in their last seven games with their two wins coming over the Jazz at home and Bucks on the road.  They play zero defense, and that's what is going to kill them not only tonight but in the playoffs as well.  Bet the Magic Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies/Hornets OVER 230

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace this season, and this total of 230 is very low for a game involving the Grizzlies.  That's especially the case with Ja Morant expected to return to the lineup from illness tonight.

The Charlotte Hornets will finish with one of the three worst records in the NBA which means they will give themselves their best chance of getting the No. 1 pick as the three worst teams all have a 14% chance.  They won't be concerned with tanking tonight, and they will gladly get up and down with the Grizzlies while playing zero defense.

The Hornets are coming off 248 combined points with the Bulls, a similar team to the Grizzlies that ranks 2nd in pace and also likes to play super fast.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Grizzlies and Hornets, and these teams combined for 252 points in their first meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pacers OVER 235.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Washington Wizards visit the Indiana Pacers.  The Wizards rank 4th in pace while the Pacers rank 8th in pace this season, so this game will be up-tempo.

The Pacers have gone 5-1-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 239 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  That includes their 162-109 win over the Wizards for 271 combined points on March 27th.  It will be more of the same in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Florida/Houston Championship Game No-Brainer on Houston +1.5

The Houston Cougars are 34-4 this season with all four losses coming by 5 points or fewer, including three in OT.  They have only lost one game since December 1st and that was a 1-point loss to Texas Tech in OT.  They are battle-tested and have come out on top in almost all of their close games since December.

The Cougars had the toughest route to championship game by far.  It started with beating Gonzaga, which was the most under-seeded team in the entire tournament.  Then they beat the defending runners-up in Purdue in a dog fight in what was essentially a home game for the Boilermakers being played in Indianapolis.  Tennessee had the home-court advantage in the Elite 8 in Indianapolis, but it didn't matter as the Cougars put together their most complete performance of the season in a wire-to-wire job in a 69-50 win over Vols.

Now it's Houston that gets the home-court advantage.  The Final 4 is being played in the Alamodome in San Antonio.  Houston is the 9th team to play in its home state in the Final 4 since 1975. Those teams playing in their home state have gone 8-1 SU in the previous nine instances, including all three underdogs winning outright.

That includes their 70-67 win over Duke in the Final 4.  Things were going against Houston for 30 minutes that they were able to overcome.  Uzan got two early fouls and picked up his 4th foul early in the 2H and played just 28 minutes total.  The Cougars overcame a 14-point deficit in the 2H and a 6-point deficit in the final minute to beat a Duke team that almost everyone thought would win the title after running through everyone else.

Florida is fortunate to be here.  The Gators survived a dog fight against 8th seed UConn, they needed a double-digit comeback in the final few minutes to beat Texas Tech, and they overcame a double-digit deficit in the 2H against Auburn.  They got to face Auburn with a hobbled Broome as well.  This is where the luck for the Gators runs out.

Florida hasn't face a team that plays with the physicality and toughness that Houston does defensively.  The Cougars rank 1st in adjusted defense and 360th in adjusted tempo.  They drag you in the mud and make you play their game.  And I think they should get the benefit of the whistle with this essentially being a home game for them being played in San Antonio.  No question the Cougars feel like they can't lose at this point after that comeback win over Duke.  They are playing with extreme confidence, and I trust Kelvin Sampson to make the proper adjustments over Todd Golden of the Gators.  Bet Houston Monday. 

15* Rockets/Warriors NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Golden State -5.5

The Golden State Warriors are 19-2 SU in their last 21 games in which both Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler start.  The Warriors are highly motivated for wins right now to avoid the play-in.

And that's the difference in this game.  The Houston Rockets are pretty much locked in to the No. 2 seed in the West after their huge upset win over the Thunder last time out.  That sets them up for a massive letdown spot here.  

The Warriors own the Rockets going 16-1 SU in their last 17 meetings with their lone loss coming by a single point.  Amazingly, 14 of those 16 wins have come by 6 points or more.  Bet the Warriors Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +20.5

The Washington Wizards are locked in to one of the three worst records in the NBA which gives them their best odds at the No. 1 pick in the draft.  They aren't concerned about tanking anymore as a result, and that has shown in their play here of late.

The Wizards are 2-0 ATS in their last two games upsetting the Kings 116-111 as 13.5-point dogs and covering in a 12-point loss to the Magic the very next night as 15-point dogs.  Now the Wizards have had the last two days off and will relish this opportunity to try and take down the defending champs.

The Boston Celtics are the team with questionable motivation here down the stretch.  They are locked in to the No. 2 seed now in the East.  They won't care about trying to beat the Wizards, let alone beat them by margin.  Tatum and Brown are questionable to play tonight as well.  The Wizards haven't lost any of their last four meetings with the Celtics by more than 20 points.  Bet the Wizards Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on San Antonio Spurs +5

The San Antonio Spurs are the exact type of team you can make money on down the stretch of the NBA season.  They continue to play hard despite being eliminated from postseason contention.

The Spurs have gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall and are coming off two huge efforts upsetting the Nuggets on the road and only losing to the Cavaliers by 1 at home as 12.5-point dogs.

The Blazers are 2-5 SU in their last seven games overall and dealing with a plethora of injuries right now.  Ayton, Grant and Henderson are out, while Simons and Avidja are questionable.  Those are their five best players.  

Given the injury report, they should not be 5-point favorites here.  This is also a tough spot for the Blazers returning home from a 5-game road trip and playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days.  Bet the Spurs Sunday.

20* Lakers/Thunder NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 230

The Los Angeles Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and a terrible defense.  The Lakers are 12-4 OVER in their last 16 games overall with 232 or more combined points in 11 of their last 15 games.

The Thunder are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall with 236 or more combined points in three of those four games.  The Thunder have scored at least 119 points in eight of their last 10 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Bulls/Hornets NBA Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 227.5

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace this season.  The OVER is 6-2-1 in Bulls last nine games overall with 231 or more combined points in all nine games.  That makes for an 9-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 227.5-point total.  This is a very low total for a game involving Chicago.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston +5

The Houston Cougars are 34-4 this season with all four losses coming by 5 points or fewer, including three in OT.  They have only lost one game since December 1st and that was a 1-point loss to Texas Tech in OT.  They are battle-tested and have come out on top in almost all of their close games since December.

The Cougars had the toughest route to the Final 4 of any of the four remaining teams, and especially much tougher than Duke's path.  It started with beating Gonzaga, which was the most under-seeded team in the entire tournament.  Then they beat the defending runners-up in Purdue in a dog fight in what was essentially a home game for the Boilermakers being played in Indianapolis.  Tennessee has the home-court advantage last round in Indianapolis, but it didn't matter as the Cougars put together their most complete performance of the season in a wire-to-wire job in a 69-50 win over Vols.

Now it's Houston that gets the home-court advantage here.  The Final 4 will be played in the Alamodome in San Antonio.  Houston is the 9th team to play in its home state in the Final 4 since 1975. Those teams playing in their home state have gone 7-1 SU in the previous eight instances, including both underdogs winning outright.

Duke has played four pretty soft, guard-oriented teams to get here.  The last three wins came against Baylor, Arizona and Alabama.  Arizona from the Big 12 gave them their toughest test in a 7-point defeat.  Houston went 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Arizona this season.

Duke has struggled against more physical, defensive-minded teams that slow down the tempo.  Their last loss came against Clemson, which ranks 327th in adjusted tempo and 17th in adjusted defense.  They also lost to fellow Big 12 opponent Kansas earlier this season, and the Jayhawks rank 11th in adjusted defense.  Kansas lost both meetings with Houston this season.

Duke hasn't seen a team that will challenge them physically and mentally like Houston will.  The Cougars rank 360th in adjusted tempo and 1st in adjusted defense.  But this is also the best offense of the Kelvin Sampson era with the Cougars ranking 10th in adjusted offense.  The trio of guards in Cryer, Uzan and Sharpe can match that of Duke, and Roberts, Francis and Tugler are a trio of big men that are tough to deal with inside.  

I expect Houston to win the majority of the loose balls and to feed off of what will feel like a home crowd in San Antonio.  This line should be much closer to PK.  Finally, the Cougars want revenge from a 54-51 loss to Duke in the Sweet 16 last season.  Jamal Shead got hurt in the 1H in that game and wasn't able to return, and it made all the difference.  The Cougars get their revenge in the Final 4 one year later.  Bet Houston Saturday.

15* Houston/Duke Final 4 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 137

Two of the best defenses in the country square off in the Final 4 when Houston meets Duke in the spacious Alamodome in San Antonio.  These basketball games that are played in football stadiums all tend to be lower scoring.  We saw that play out in Indianapolis in the Sweet 16 and the Elite 8.

Houston is a dead nuts UNDER team as it is, and the Cougars played a 62-60 dog fight with Purdue for 122 combined points and another 69-50 defensive battle with Tennessee for 119 combined points in their two games in Indianapolis.  The Cougars rank 1st in adjusted defense this season and 360th in adjusted tempo as only four teams in the entire country play slower than they do.

Duke also doesn't like to push the pace ranking 268th in adjusted tempo and 4th in adjusted defense.  Few teams have been able to do what Duke did to Alabama last game.  The Blue Devils held the Crimson Tide to just 65 points and totally took them out of their game.  But Duke has gotten away with playing four poor, undersized defensive teams thus far in the tournament in Mt. St. Mary's, Baylor, Arizona and Alabama.  The Blue Devils haven't faced a team as physical and ferocious defensively as Houston is.  

This is a rematch from a 54-51 win by Duke and just 105 combined points in the Sweet 16 last season.  While I don't expect it to be that low-scoring again, I fully expect it to stay UNDER this 137-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/76ers OVER 224.5

The Philadelphia 76ers have been a dead nuts OVER team here down the stretch with all offense and no defense while also playing fast.  The 76ers are 12-4-1 OVER in their last 17 games overall with 228 or more combined points in 12 of those 17 games.  This is a very low total for a game involving the 76ers right now.

The Timberwolves have also been an OVER team here down the stretch now that they are fully healthy.  The Timberwolves are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall with 227 or more combined points in eight of their last 10 games overall.  This is also a very low total involving Minnesota right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -2

The Memphis Grizzlies are desperate for wins here down the stretch.  They sit in 8th place in the West but have a great chance to get out of the play-in altogether with a big finish considering just 2 games separate the 3rd through 8th seeds in the West.  It is a logjam and it's going to be a wild finish to the regular season as a result.

After a brutal schedule with four straight losses to the Thunder, Lakers, Celtics and Warriors, the Grizzlies finally got a break and ended their losing streak with a road win at Miami at the buzzer.  It's the kind of win the team can rally around to close out the season.

Now the Grizzlies get to face the Pistons, who are dealing with injuries to Cade Cunningham and Tobias Harris.  It's a tired Pistons team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 117-105 win at Toronto against the tanking Raptors last night.  The Pistons will now be playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days with a lot of travel involved in between.

The Pistons don't have a lot on the line here down the stretch.  They will either be the 5th or 6th seed in the East.  There's not much difference there as they will either face the Knicks or Pacers in the 1st round.  They don't need these games nearly as much as the Grizzlies do.  Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* Florida/Auburn Final 4 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 161.5

The Final 4 will be played in the spacious Alamodome in San Antonio that seats 70,000 fans.  These basketball games that are played in football stadiums tend to be lower scoring due to the poor shooting backgrounds.  We saw that play out in Indianapolis in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.  UNDERS went 3-0 in those three games.

The last 15 Final 4 games with a total of 160 or higher went 10-5 UNDER.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and Florida and Auburn being from the SEC and having already played once this season will know what to expect when they meet again in the Final 4.

Florida ranks 10th in adjusted defense while Auburn ranks 8th in adjusted defense.  Both teams hang their hats on defense.  The Tigers may have to do that even more now with their best player hampered as Johnni Broome suffered an elbow injury against Michigan State.  He was nursing that elbow the entire way when he returned, and there's no way he'll be 100% even though he will likely play through it.

Auburn is 5-1 UNDER in its last six games overall with 152 or fewer combined points in all six games, including 146 or fewer in five of the six.  Florida went for 152 combined points with UConn, 158 with Maryland and 163 with Texas Tech in its last three games coming in.  Florida needed 4 straight made 3-pointers and 25-of-27 from the FT line to escape with a victory in a very high-scoring final couple minutes against Texas Tech.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Nuggets/Warriors NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 235

Both the Nuggets and Warriors are trending OVER here lately.  The Warriors are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 254, 259 and 239 points.

The Nuggets get all their players back tonight after they all rested last game against San Antonio.  They have been a dead nuts OVER team as long as Jokic is healthy and playing.  They went for 238 or more combined points in three of their last four games in which that was the case.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State Warriors PK

The Golden State Warriors are 18-4 in their last 22 games overall and have been dominant since trading for Jimmy Butler.  Despite playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, Steve Kerr stated that all his starters would play again tonight after a road win over the Lakers last night.

It's a short travel back home for Golden State, and they should be favored here instead of PK.  The Nuggets are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall and have been overvalued for weeks.  It will be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Nuggets, who are banged up right now.  Bet the Warriors Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Rockets OVER 227.5

Two teams trending OVER here down the stretch square off tonight.  And the OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Rockets and Thunder with 233 or more combined points in four of those five meetings.  The only one that went under was in the NBA Cup where both teams played max intensity defense.  They came back for 265 combined points in their most recent regular season meeting on March 3rd.

The Thunder have scored at least 119 points in eight of their last nine games overall.  The Rockets are 8-2-1 OVER in their last 11 games overall with 227 or more combined points in eight of those 11 games.  The Rockets have scored at least 121 points in four of their last five games, including 143 and 148 in two of their last three.  One of Houston's best defenders in Dillon Brooks has been suspended for this game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Bulls OVER 234.5

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace this season.  The OVER is 6-1-1 in Bulls last eight games overall with 236 or more combined points in all eight games.  That makes for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 234.5-point total.

The OVER is 5-2 in Blazers last seven games overall with 233 or more combined points in five of those seven games, including 235 or more five times.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Suns/Celtics NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on OVER 225

The Phoenix Suns are a dead nuts OVER team right now due to their terrible defense.  They are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 233 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  They have allowed 133, 148, 124 and 132 points in their last four games overall.

The Boston Celtics are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall combining for at least 227 points in three of those four games.  One of those was a 132-102 win at Phoenix for 234 combined points on March 26th.  It should be another shootout in the rematch that sails over this short 225-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Jazz/Pacers OVER 237

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight.  The Pacers rank 8th in pace 7th in offensive rating while the Jazz rank 7th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.

The Jazz have allowed at least 120 points in five of their last six games overall, including 143 to the Rockets last time out.  The Pacers are going to hang a big number on the Jazz to lead the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Warriors/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 228.5

The Los Angeles Lakers were projected to be a pretty poor defensive team with the addition of Luka Doncic and no true defensive big man on the roster.  That has come to fruition here down the stretch with the Lakers allowing 118 or more points in six of their last seven games overall.  But the Lakers have scored at least 117 points in three of their last four and are an elite offensive team when Doncic, James and Reaves are healthy.  The Lakers are 9-4 OVER in their last 13 games overall.

The Golden State Warriors are thriving offensively with Steph Curry back healthy.  They are coming off a 148-106 win at San Antonio for 254 combined points and a 134-125 win at Memphis for 259 combined points. 

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings and 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the Warriors and Lakers.  They have combined for at least 223 points in all nine meetings, including 232 or more in five of their last seven.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Chattanooga/UC-Irvine NIT Championship ANNIHILATOR on Chattanooga +5

Chattanooga is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the NIT with 4 outright wins as underdogs.  What more do the Mocs need to do to get some respect? Now they are 5-point underdogs to UC-Irvine in the NIT Championship Game, and I fully expect them to win outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

While Chattanooga had to play 3 of its 4 games on the road to get here, UC-Irvine benefitted from getting 3 home games to make the semifinals.  And it couldn't have been a much easier schedule with unimpressive wins over Northern Colorado by 10, Jacksonville State by 5 and UAB by 4.  And the Anteaters were fortunate to get a big comeback to beat North Texas by 2 in the semifinals.  So the only team they beat by more than this 5-point margin was Northern Colorado, which ranks 125th in Kenpom.

So UC-Irvine's 4 wins have come by a total of 21 points despite being favored in every game except being 1-point dogs to North Texas.  Chattanooga's 4 wins have come by a total of 30 points despite being an underdog in all 4 contests.  Bet Chattanooga Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets +13.5

The Brooklyn Nets refuse to tank and have been competitive as a result here down the stretch.  They are exactly the type of team you can make money on.  The Nets are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall including consecutive upset wins over the Wizards and Mavericks.

This looks like a letdown spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves.  They are coming off their wild 140-139 (2 OT) road win at Denver where they won despite a 60-point triple-double from Nikola Jokic.  Keep in mind the Nuggets were without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. for that contest.

The Timberwolves have beaten the Nets by more than 11 points just once in their last 12 meetings, making for an 11-1 system backing the Nets pertaining to this 13.5-point spread.  This game will be much more competitive than this line indicates.  Bet the Nets Thursday.

20* Grizzlies/Heat TNT No-Brainer on OVER 223.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace this season.  They play fast with or without JA Morant, but Morant just returned from a 6-game absence.  The Grizzlies and their opponents have combined for at least 236 points in eight of their last 12 games overall.  This total of 223.5 is very low for a game involving the Grizzlies right now.

The Miami Heat are going through their best stretch of offense all season during their current 6-game winning streak.  They have scored 118 or more points in five of those six wins.  That includes 124 against the Celtics last night, a Boston team that is one of the best defensive squads in the NBA.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Nebraska/Georgetown FS1 No-Brainer on OVER 152

We saw NIT OVERs thrive and now we are seeing College Basketball Crown OVERS thrive.  OVERS are 5-3 in the College Basketball Crown Tournament and 6-2 if you bet early.  Defense tends to be optional, and players just play freely in these lesser tournaments.  We got a good early number here on Nebraska/Georgetown OVER 152.

Georgetown beat Washington State 85-82 for 167 combined points in its tournament opener on Monday.  This despite the Hoyas only shooting 40.8% from the field.  The Hoyas have had to go more small ball without their best big man down the stretch, and they are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall.  They rank 117th in adjusted tempo so they like to play fast as well.

Nebraska is coming off a 86-78 win over Arizona State and 164 combined points.  Neither team really lit it up shooting wise, either.  The Huskers also play faster than your average team ranking 149th in adjusted tempo.  We will see more offensive fireworks in the shooter-friendly MGM Grand Garden arena tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas Mavericks -3

The Dallas Mavericks are fighting hard to make the playoffs.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall to sit in 9th place in the West.  They are just 0.5 games ahead of 10th place Sacramento and 2 games ahead of Phoenix.  So they are basically playing playoff basketball right now and motivated.

A big reason for their success is the return of Anthony Davis.  But they also recently got PJ Washington back from injury, and now both Lively and Gafford are back.  The chemistry should just keep getting better and better with this team as they close out the regular season.

But this is more of a fade of Atlanta than it is a play on Dallas.  This is a very tough spot for the Hawks, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 127-113 home loss to the Portland Trail Blazers last night.  That was such a bad result considering the Blazers were without 3 of their best players in Simons, Henderson and Grant.

Trae Young and Dyson Daniels both played over 36 minutes for the Hawks last night.  The Mavericks have won three consecutive meetings with the Hawks and are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.  Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* Knicks/Cavs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -10.5

The New York Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a lackluster 105-91 home win over the tanking Philadelphia 76ers last night.  The 76ers were sitting pretty much everyone but Grimes and still were in the game until the final minutes.

Because it was a close game in the 4th quarter, five players for the Knicks played at least 32 minutes last night.  This team is already short-handed as it is playing without their top three PG's in Brunson, McBride and Payne, while also having Karl-Anthony Towns being a late scratch due to a knee injury.

The Knicks will not only be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but their 6th game in 9 days which is about as tough as it gets in their current state.  They must play a rested Cleveland Cavaliers team that has had the last two days off.

I've been fading the Cavaliers a lot lately because they have pretty much had the No. 1 seed locked up.  But their lead has now been cut to 4 games by the Celtics with 7 games left.  I think we see them play with more urgency now until they lock up the No. 1 seed, especially coming in on two days' rest tonight.

Unlike the Knicks, the Cavaliers are fully healthy right now.  They beat the Knicks 142-105 in their lone home meeting earlier this season.  And that was even with Brunson, Towns, McBride and Payne in the lineup.  They will at least be without three of these guys in the rematch, and I wouldn't be surprised if Towns sits again as well.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

15* Warriors/Grizzlies NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 236

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace this season.  They play fast with or without JA Morant, but Morant just returned from a 6-game absence.  The Grizzlies and their opponents have combined for at least 236 points in seven of their last 11 games overall.

The Golden State Warriors are thriving offensively with Steph Curry back healthy.  They are coming off a 148-106 win at San Antonio for 254 combined points.  They won't mind getting in a shootout with the Grizzlies tonight.

In fact, these games always tend to be shootouts.  The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 234 or more combined points in all four meetings.  They have gone for 237 or more combined points in six of their last nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors +5

The Toronto Raptors continue to play hard almost every night.  That is evidenced by the fact that the Raptors are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  That includes 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with the four wins coming by an average of 16.8 points per game.

I love the spot for the Raptors tonight.  They had yesterday off and will be out for revenge from an OT loss to the Bulls in their last meeting.  They have actually lost all three meetings with the Bulls this season, so they'll be extra motivated to avoid the season sweep.

This is a terrible spot for the Bulls.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 145-117 loss in Oklahoma City last night.  This is probably a very tired team right now after going to the wire with the Mavericks in a 1-point loss and the Bulls in a 2-point win in their two games prior.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Bulls OVER 235

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 24th in defensive rating.  They are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 236 or more combined points in all seven games, including 262 with the Thunder last night.  They have scored at least 117 points in all seven games and are thriving offensively with Coby White and Josh Giddey running the show.

The Toronto Raptors rank 11th in pace and won't mind getting up and down with the Bulls tonight.  They are scoring an average of 115.8 points per game during their current 4-game winning streak.  The Bulls will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Atlanta Hawks -5

The Atlanta Hawks are playing their best basketball of the season right now and motivated to improve their playoff positioning to assure they give themselves their best chance of making the playoffs through the play-in.  The Hawks are 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall and coming off a 145-124 road win at Milwaukee as 4-point dogs.

The Portland Trail Blazers made a valiant run at the play-in, but now it appears they are calling off the dogs.  The Blazers are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and haven't even been competitive in any of them with all four losses coming by 11 points or more.  They are without Grant and Henderson and Simons is questionable.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Blazers/Hawks OVER 236.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace this season.  The Hawks are 6-0-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 234 or more combined points in all seven games.  In fact, they have gone for at least 233 combined points with their opponents in 15 of their last 16 games overall.

The Blazers have clearly let go of the rope defensively.  The OVER is 4-1 in Blazers last five games overall with 233 or more combined points in four of those five games.  They have allowed 129, 128 and 122 points in three of their last four games coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Rockets/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 223.5

The Los Angeles Lakers were projected to be a pretty poor defensive team with the addition of Luka Doncic and no true defensive big man on the roster.  That has come to fruition here down the stretch as the Lakers allowed 118 points to Milwaukee, 146 to Chicago, 118 to Orlando, 119 to Indiana, 119 to Chicago and 127 to Memphis for six consecutive games of allowing 118 points or more.  

The Lakers are 9-3 OVER in their last 12 games overall.  They are thriving offensively with a healthy James, Doncic and Reaves.  They have scored 120, 117 and 134 points in their last three games since James returned.  The OVER is 4-1 in their last five games with 236 or more combined points in four of the five, and 224 against a dead nuts under team in the Magic.

The Rockets are also really trending OVER here of late.  They are 7-1-1 OVER in their last nine games overall and fully healthy right now.  The Rockets have scored at least 116 points in seven of those nine games, and 121 or more in five of them.  The OVER is 2-0 in two meetings this season with 234 and 254 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -9

The Dallas Mavericks are fighting hard to make the playoffs.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  A big reason for their success is the return of Anthony Davis.  But they also recently got PJ Washington back from injury, and now both Lively and Gafford are expected to make their returns tonight.

The Mavericks host a tanking Brooklyn Nets team that have gone 1-6 SU in their last seven games with their only win coming at Washington by 3 against a Wizards team that is also tanking.  The Nets lost by 31, 30 and 19 points in their previous three games.  That 19-point loss came at home to the Mavericks, and it will be more of the same in the rematch tonight.  The Nets will be without Cam Johnson, Clowney and Sharpe tonight.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

20* Bulls/Thunder NBA No-Brainer on OVER 238

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 24th in defensive rating.  They are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 236 or more combined points in all six games, including 239 or more in five of them.  They have scored at least 119 points in all six games and are thriving offensively with Coby White and Josh Giddey running the show.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are also a dead nuts OVER team ranking 8th in pace and 4th in offensive rating.  The Thunder have scored at least 121 points in six of their last seven games overall.  I expect the Thunder to get at least 130 and the Bulls at least 115 tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Celtics/Grizzlies TNT No-Brainer on OVER 235.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace this season.  They play fast with or without JA Morant, but Morant just returned from a 6-game absence last time out in a 134-127 shootout loss to the Lakers that saw 261 combined points.  The Grizzlies and their opponents have combined for at least 236 points in seven of their last 10 games overall.

The Boston Celtics are almost fully healthy right now and thriving offensively scoring 121 or more points in four of their last five games overall.  The Grizzlies beat the Celtics 127-121 for 248 combined points in their first and only meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kings/Pacers OVER 233

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 7th in the NBA in pace this season.  The OVER is 3-0 in Pacers last three games overall combining for 239 points with the Lakers, 271 with the Wizards and 243 with the Thunder.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Pacers right now.

The Sacramento Kings are fully healthy and certainly more of an OVER team when that's the case.  They have plenty of offensive firepower with LaVine, DeRozan, Sabonis and Monk.  And they are a very poor defensive team allowing 119 or more points in eight of their last 11 games.  The OVER is 8-5 in Kings last 13 games overall.

The Kings and Pacers have combined for 247 or more points in three of their last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors -4

The Toronto Raptors continue to play hard almost every night.  That is evidenced by the fact that the Raptors are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They are also pretty healthy right now with Barrett and Barnes all expected to suit up, and they have shown off their tremendous depth battling injuries all season.

The Philadelphia 76ers are in full blown tank mode going 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  The only games they were somewhat competitive in were a 5-point home loss to the Wizards and an 8-point loss at San Antonio, which are two of the worst teams in the NBA.  They also lost by 23 at home to Miami, by 13 at Atlanta, by 13 at New Orleans and by 33 at OKC.

Making matters worse for the 76ers is the fact that they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after that 23-point loss to Miami last night.  They have 8 players listed out tonight and their are 8 of their best players.  Bet the Raptors Sunday.

20* CBB Sunday Elite 8 Total DOMINATOR on Michigan State/Auburn UNDER 150

Two elite defensive teams square off in the Elite 8 Sunday when Michigan State takes on Auburn in the South Region final.  This profiles as a defensive battle with points very hard to come by, especially for Michigan State.

The Spartans rank 4th in the country in adjusted defense and have been riding defense and rebounding to the Elite 8.  They have gotten away with just how poor of a shooting team they are, largely due to their soft schedule to this point.  The Spartans rank 318th in 3-point percentage at 31.1% this season.  They rank just 329th in 3-point rate at 32.8%, so at least they know they shouldn't be taking a ton of them.  That also allows them to set their defense with fewer long rebounds.

Auburn ranks 8th in the country in adjusted defense and 11th in effective FG percentage.  The Tigers have great defensive guards across the board, and they have two great defensive big men inside led by Broome and Cardwell.  Nothing will come easy for the Spartans in this one.  I also like the fact that neither team really looks to push the pace as both rank middle of the pack in tempo.

Michigan State is a dead nuts UNDER team going 25-11 UNDER in all games this season.  They are 14-4 UNDER in their last 18 games overall with 149 or fewer combined points in 13 of those 18 games.  That includes 143 with Ole Miss and 134 with New Mexico in their last two games coming in.

Auburn has been an UNDER team since the start of the NCAA Tournament.  The Tigers are 4-1 UNDER in their last five games overall with 146 or fewer combined points in four of those five games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Michigan State/Auburn South Region No-Brainer on Auburn -5

It's amazing how good Auburn can be when they are dialed in.  The Tigers clearly knew they were going to be a No. 1 seed regardless of how they performed in the SEC Tournament and it showed.  They were also lackluster in their NCAA Tournament opener against Alabama State winning by 20 as 31.5-point favorites.

The Tigers started slow against UConn trailing by 2 at halftime.  They showed what they were capable of down the stretch, pulling away for a 82-70 victory as 9-point favorites.  They did the same thing against Michigan, trailing by 8 points with about 12 minutes left.  That's when they decided their season was on the line, and they locked in from that point outscoring the Wolverines by 21 the rest of the way to win 78-65 and cover as 9-point favorites.

If Auburn is anywhere near at its best for 40 minutes, it will crush Michigan State.  The only hope for the Spartans to keep this game competitive would be an off game for Auburn, and considering a trip to the Final 4 is on the line I expect we get their best effort.

Michigan State needed late surges to beat both New Mexico by 8 and Ole Miss by 3 the last two rounds.  The Spartans have been getting by with hustle, defense and rebounding because they rank just 318th in the country in 3-point shooting at 31.1%.  This is where their lack of shooting finally hurts them as they can't hang with a team the caliber of Auburn without it.

Ole Miss is a common opponent and Auburn went 3-0 against Ole Miss this season winning those three meeting by a total of 45 points, or by an average of 15 points per game.  Michigan State pretty much trailed Ole Miss the entire way and was life and death.  This is a big step up in class for the Spartans against an Auburn team with no weaknesses ranking 3rd in adjusted offense and 8th in adjusted defense.  It's also a home game for the Tigers basically less than two hours from campus in Atlanta.  Bet Auburn Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Cavs OVER 229.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in eight of their last nine games.  The only team that held them below that number was the Thunder, who are the best defensive team in the league.  The OVER is 7-3 in Clippers last 10 games overall.  They have gone for 232 or more combined points in four of their last five games coming in.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They rank 1st in offensive efficiency and 10th in pace.  They have gone 48-26 OVER in all games this season.  The OVER is 6-1 in Cavs last seven games overall with 232 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  This total of 229.5 is too short for a game involving these two teams today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Alabama/Duke East Region No-Brainer on OVER 171.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted tempo, 4th in average length of offensive possession and 4th in adjusted offense.  Alabama and its opponents have combined for at least 166 points in 12 of their last 14 games overall.  The two games they didn't came against two slow-paced, defensive-minded teams in Tennessee and St. Mary's.

Now Alabama plays a team that won't mind running and gunning with them in Duke, which has really upped its tempo here down the stretch.  The Blue Devils have been a dead nuts OVER team down the stretch when Cooper Flagg has been healthy.  The Blue Devils are 10-1 OVER in their last 11 games in which Flagg has started.

Alabama has scored at least 80 points in 17 of its last 19 games, including 90 or more in 12 of those 19 games.  The Crimson Tide beat BYU 113-88 last game for 201 combined points and shot 25-of-51 from 3-point range.  They aren't going to change how they play against Duke.

Duke has scored at least 78 points in each of the last 12 games in which Flagg has started.  They are averaging 94.5 PPG in games in which Flagg has started and finished since mid-February.  The Blue Devils hung 100 on Arizona in a 100-93 win for 193 combined points.  They won't mind getting in an up-tempo game with Alabama, either.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Pacers/Thunder NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 237.5

Both the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers like to push the tempo, so this game should see a ton of possessions to help us cash this OVER 237.5 ticket.  The Pacers rank 7th in pace this season while the Thunder rank 8th in pace.

The Pacers have scored at least 119 points in six of their last eight games overall while going 5-3 OVER during this stretch.  The Thunder have scored at least 118 points in 16 of their last 19 games overall while going 11-8 OVER during this stretch.

The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings with 232 or more combined points in eight of those nine meetings, including 238 or more in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls ML -135

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now as they are fighting hard to make the playoffs.  The Bulls are 9-2 SU & 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their two losses coming by 3 at Houston and by 6 at Phoenix.

They upset the Lakers as 4-point home dogs, upset the Nuggets by 10 as 2.5-point road dogs, upset the Lakers by 31 as 10.5-point road dogs, upset the Kings by 12 as 7.5-point road dogs, beat the Jazz by 14 as 4.5-point road favorites, beat the Nets by 6 as 2-point home favorites, upset the Pacers by 18 as 4-point home dogs, upset the Heat by 5 as 5-point road dogs and upset the Magic by 2 as 8.5-point road dogs.  They have beaten a lot of playoff teams during this stretch.

The Bulls are showing what they are capable of when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They are in a great rest spot playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They have a ton of confidence right now and want to keep this momentum going, especially when they are fighting for positioning in the all-important play-in in the East with the 4 teams separated by a total of 3 games.

The Dallas Mavericks remain an injury-ravaged team with 10 players on the injury report, and they remain without Irving, Lively and Gafford with PJ Washington questionable as well.  They have done a good job of fighting through these injuries, but I don't like this spot for them tonight.  The Mavericks will be playing their 4th road game in 6 days tonight, and the Bulls rank 3rd in pace and will test their tired legs.  Bet the Bulls on the Money Line Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Memphis Grizzlies ML -135

It's time to 'buy low' on the Memphis Grizzlies.  They have gone 8-12 SU & 3-16-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  That performance led to the firing of Taylor Jenkins, and I always like backing teams in their 1st game with an interim head coach.  They tend to be inspired with a new voice in the locker room, and I expect that to be the case for the Grizzlies today.

JA Morant participated in shootaround after missing the past six games with a hamstring injury.  I'm expecting him to return.  I also like the fact that the Grizzlies have a big rest advantage over the Lakers.  The Grizzlies will be fresh and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 8 days.

The Los Angeles Lakers were projected to be a pretty poor defensive team with the addition of Luka Doncic and no true defensive big man on the roster.  That has come to fruition here down the stretch with the Lakers going 4-8 SU in their last 12 games, including 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five while allowing 118 points to Milwaukee, 146 to Chicago, 118 to Orlando, 119 to Indiana and 119 to Chicago.

A big reason for the Lakers' struggles is just how tired they are right now after a brutal schedule in terms of rest that saw them have to play 6 games in 8 days from March 13-March 20.  The Lakers are coming off two dog fights beating the Pacers at the on Wednesday and coming back to lose to the Bulls at the buzzer on Thursday.  It will be their 11th game in 17 days, which is far and away the toughest rest situation any team has faced all season.   Bet the Grizzlies on the Money Line Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Grizzlies OVER 237

The Los Angeles Lakers were projected to be a pretty poor defensive team with the addition of Luka Doncic and no true defensive big man on the roster.  That has come to fruition here down the stretch with the Lakers going 4-8 SU in their last 12 games, including 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five while allowing 118 points to Milwaukee, 146 to Chicago, 118 to Orlando, 119 to Indiana and 119 to Chicago.

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace this season.  They play fast with or without JA Morant, but there's a good chance he returns from a 6-game absence as he participated in shootaround this morning.  They are about as healthy as they have been all season if he returns.

The Lakers are 8-3 OVER in their last 11 games overall.  The Grizzlies and their opponents have combined for at least 236 points in six of their last nine games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Michigan/Auburn South Region No-Brainer on Auburn -7.5

Michigan is the most overrated team left in the tournament.  The Wolverines have a negative point differential despite winning 13 of their last 17 games.  They were simply fortunate in close games all season, and they've won just two games by more than 6 points since January 12th.

Michigan was once again fortunate to escape with a 68-65 win over UC-San Diego in the Round of 64.  They had the officials on their side when UC-San Diego's best player in Tait-Jones fouled out and was in foul trouble all game only playing 24 minutes thanks to a couple questionable calls.  Michigan only won by 3 despite a rare poor shooting performance by the Tritons going just 7-of-30 (23%) from 3-point range.

Michigan was then able to overcome a double-digit deficit in the 2H to beat Texas A&M in the Round of 32.  The Aggies are a poor shooting team and it came back to bite them hitting just 38% from the field and 26% from 3-point range against the Wolverines.

Now the Wolverines face a complete team in Auburn, and this is where their luck runs out.  The Tigers rank 3rd in adjusted offense and 12th in adjusted defense.  They take care of the ball ranking 5th in turnover rate on offense turning it over on only 13% of possessions.  That's going to be the difference in this game.

Michigan ranks 324th in turnover percentage on offense turning it over on nearly 20% of possessions.  Auburn will capitalize on those opportunities, and I don't think Michigan has what it takes to keep up in what I expect to be a shootout.  This will also feel like a home game for the Tigers being played in Atlanta less than two hours from campus.  Bet Auburn Friday.

15* CBB Friday Sweet 16 Total DOMINATOR on Michigan/Auburn OVER 151

Michigan really profiles as an OVER team.  The Wolverines rank 58th in adjusted tempo and 22nd in average length of offensive possession.  They also rank 324th in turnover rate, committing turnovers on 20% of their possessions to create easy scoring opportunities for their opponents.

Auburn also likes to play with pace ranking 146th in adjusted tempo and 132nd in average length of offensive possession.  The Tigers do everything under control and get good looks each time down the court, ranking 3rd in adjusted offense.

Michigan went for 170 combined points with Texas A&M last game despite neither team shooting well from the floor, especially the Aggies who shot 38% from the floor and 26% from 3.  Auburn went for 152 combined points with Creighton against a Bluejays team that likes to play at a much slower tempo than Michigan does.

Auburn is 11-5 OVER in its last 16 games with 152 or more combined points in 11 of those 16 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Nuggets OVER 239.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Utah Jazz visit the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets rank 6th in pace and 3rd in offensive rating while the Jazz rank 6th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.

The OVER is 7-1 in Nuggets last eight games overall with 244 or more combined points four times.  The OVER is 2-0 in Jazz last two games including 243 combined points with Memphis.  The Jazz and Nuggets combined for 253 points in their most recent meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Golden State Warriors -14.5

The Golden State Warriors are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games overall and motivated to avoid the play-in in the West.  They are also motivated coming off one of their worst losses of the season at Miami.  They will be fresh and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight.

The New Orleans Pelicans are tanking right now.  They have recent losses to the Rockets by 29, the Magic by 20, the Pistons by 46 and the Timberwolves by 41.  And now they have decided to rest McCollum and Williamson, which means they will be without six of their top seven scorers tonight.  What a mess.  Bet the Warriors Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Toronto Raptors -5.5

The Toronto Raptors continue to play hard almost every night.  That is evidenced by the fact that the Raptors are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are also pretty healthy right now with Quickley, Poeltl and Barnes all expected to suit up.

The Charlotte Hornets are clearly in tank mode.  They have gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall including four games where they weren't even competitive losing by 35 to the Clippers, 32 to the Hawks, 35 to the Thunder and 17 to the Heat.  They have elected to rest their best player in La'Melo Ball tonight as well.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Clippers -11.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in seven of their last eight games.  The only team that held them below that number was the Thunder, who are the best defensive team in the league.  And they played the Thunder to the wire in a 2-point loss last time out.

The Clippers have surrounded that loss to the Thunder with six blowout wins in their last seven games.  They beat the Knicks by 13, Miami by 15 and Atlanta by 23 on the road, while also crushing Charlotte by 35, Cleveland by 13 and Memphis by 20 at home.  The Clippers should be fresh playing just their 4rd game in 9 days and just their 2nd game in 5 days.

The Brooklyn Nets look to have thrown in the towel and are in full blown tank mode.  They have lost five straight and eight of their last nine coming in.  The last two losses were very concerning and showed their lack of effort, losing by 19 at home to the Mavericks as 3-point dogs and then by 30 at home to the Raptors as 2.5-point favorites.  It won't go any better for them tonight against a surging, motivated Los Angeles team.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

15* Kentucky/Tennessee Midwest Region ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -4

Tennessee lost both meetings to Kentucky during the regular season.  The ultimate revenge would be to knock out the Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament, and I fully expect the Vols to get their revenge in blowout fashion today.

The shooting in the first two meetings was very fluky and heavily in Kentucky's favor.  While Tennessee went 14-of-63 (22.2%) from 3-point range in the two meetings, Kentucky remarkably went 24-of-48 (50%) from 3-point range.  That was the difference.  Jax Robinson had 17 points on 4-of-9 from 3 in one of the meetings, and the Wildcats are now without Robinson and much less potent offensively.

Let's also look at this from a line value perspective.  Tennessee was a 10.5-point favorite at home and a 4-point favorite on the road in the first two meetings.  Now the Vols are a 4-point favorite on a neutral, which is too big of an adjustment in Kentucky's favor.  The value is clearly on the Vols tonight.  Bet Tennessee Friday.

20* Arizona/Duke East Region No-Brainer on OVER 153

Duke has been a dead nuts OVER team down the stretch when Cooper Flagg has been healthy.  The Blue Devils are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games in which Flagg has started.  They have gone for at least 151 combined points with their opponents in seven of those 10 games.

Arizona really profiles as an OVER team ranking 49th in adjusted tempo and 13th in adjusted offense.  The Wildcats have gone 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall with 158 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  This is a pretty low total for a game involving the Wildcats, who went for 170 combined points with Oregon last game.  

Arizona has scored at least 83 points in seven of its last 10 games.  Duke has scored at least 78 points in each of the last 11 games in which Flagg has started.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Bulls OVER 239

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 24th in defensive rating this season.  They have gone 8-2 SU in their last 10 games overall largely due to how well they are playing offensively, scoring 111 or more points in all 10 games and 121 or more six times.  The OVER is 4-0 in Bulls last four games with 144 or more combined points in all four games.

The Los Angeles Lakers were projected to be a pretty poor defensive team with the addition of Luka Doncic and no true defensive big man on the roster.  That has come to fruition here down the stretch with the Lakers going 4-7 SU in their last 11 games, including 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four while allowing 118 points to Milwaukee, 146 to Chicago, 118 to Orlando and 119 to Indiana.

The Lakers are still a pretty good offensive team, and they have gone 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall. That includes their 146-115 loss to the Bulls less than a week ago that saw 261 combined points.  The OVER is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings in this series.  It should be yet another shootout tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +3.5

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now as they are fighting hard to make the playoffs.  The Bulls are 8-2 SU & 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their two losses coming by 3 at Houston and by 6 at Phoenix.

They upset the Nuggets by 10 as 2.5-point road dogs, upset the Lakers by 31 as 10.5-point road dogs, upset the Kings by 12 as 7.5-point road dogs, beat the Jazz by 14 as 4.5-point road favorites, beat the Nets by 6 as 2-point home favorites, upset the Pacers by 18 as 4-point home dogs, upset the Heat by 5 as 5-point road dogs and upset the Magic by 2 as 8.5-point road dogs.  They have beaten a lot of playoff teams during this stretch.

The Bulls are showing what they are capable of when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They are in a great rest spot coming in on two days' rest after last beating the Nuggets on Monday.

The Los Angeles Lakers were projected to be a pretty poor defensive team with the addition of Luka Doncic and no true defensive big man on the roster.  That has come to fruition here down the stretch with the Lakers going 4-7 SU in their last 11 games, including 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four while allowing 118 points to Milwaukee, 146 to Chicago, 118 to Orlando and 119 to Indiana.

A big reason for the Lakers' struggles is just how tired they are right now after a brutal schedule in terms of rest that saw them have to play 6 games in 8 days from March 13-March 20.  The Lakers will now be playing another 2nd of a back-to-back after a narrow 120-119 win in Indiana last night.  It will be their 10th game in 15 days, which is far and away the toughest rest situation any team has faced all season.  Bet the Bulls Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Heat OVER 227

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in pace this season.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in Hawks last five games overall going for 235 or more combined points in all five games.  That includes games against Brooklyn, Charlotte and Houston, which are three dead nuts under teams that play slow.

Miami fits the profile of a dead nuts under team that also plays slow.  But the books have adjusted this total down too much for it.  This total of 227 is too low for a game involving Atlanta.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 228 or more combined points in three of the four.  That includes 240 combined points in their most recent meeting on February 26th.  It should be more of the same in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Maryland/Florida West Region ANNIHILATOR on Maryland +6.5

Maryland is 27-8 this season with all eight losses coming by 6 points or less.  So they haven't lost a single game all season by more than 6 points, making for a 35-0 system backing the Terrapins pertaining to this 6.5-point spread.

The Terrapins finally got some good fortune to go their way in close games with a buzzer-beater 72-71 win over Colorado State.  I think the betting public is looking at that as a poor result, but I've been riding Colorado State this entire time during their 11-1 SU & 12-0 ATS run to close out the season.  The Rams are much better than they get credit for.

The more concerning result was Florida escaping with a 77-75 win over UConn as 9-point favorites last round.  The Gators failed to cover the spread in each of their first two NCAA Tournament games, and you're paying a tax to back them still after winning the SEC Tournament.

I like the fact that Maryland played in Seattle last round and decided to stay out West instead of flying back to Baltimore.  The Terrapins have had some bonding time in San Francisco prior to this game.  The tougher travel spot is Florida, which played in North Carolina on Sunday and now has to fly clear out West to San Francisco for this one.  That's a lot of travel in a short amount of time, and I don't think the Gators will be nearly as fresh or prepared as the Terrapins will be tonight as a result.  Bet Maryland Thursday.

25* NCAA Tournament TOTAL OF THE YEAR on BYU/Alabama OVER 173

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted tempo, 3rd in average length of offensive possession and 4th in adjusted offense.  Alabama and its opponents have combined for at least 166 points in 11 of their last 13 games overall.  The two games they didn't came against two slow-paced, defensive-minded teams in Tennessee and St. Mary's.

Now Alabama plays a team that won't mind running and gunning with them in BYU.  The Cougars rank 9th in adjusted offense and 6th in effective FG percentage.  They rank 21st in 3-point rate shooting 3-pointers on 48% of their possessions.  Alabama ranks 49th in that same category hoisting 3-pointers on 46% of possessions.  So there will be a ton of long rebounds and opportunities for both teams to run.

BYU has scored at least 80 points in nine of its last 11 games, including 91 or more points in five of its last 10 games with the OVER going 8-2 in those 10 games.  Alabama has scored at least 80 points in 16 of its last 18 games, including 90 or more in 11 of those 18 games.  I think Alabama pushed 100 in this game and BYU keeps up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Celtics/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +3.5

The Phoenix Suns have a lot to play for right now.  They are just 0.5 games ahead of the Dallas Mavericks for the final play-in spot in the West.  And with the way they have been playing recently, they are clearly fighting hard to make the playoffs.

The Suns have gone 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They upset the Clippers, took the Nuggets to OT on the road, only lost by 2 at Memphis, crushed the Kings by 16 at home, crushed the Raptors by 40 at home, covered in a 6-point home win over the surging Bulls, upset the Cavaliers by 11 as 8.5-point home dogs, and beat the Bucks by 2 at home.

The Suns are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They are without Bradley Beal, but the chemistry has actually been better for them without him.  You could see how much their win against the Bucks meant to them with Kevin Durant hugging all his teammates after.  I just like the way this team is playing right now, and no question they'll be up for this game with the defending champs coming to town.

The Celtics lost their best player in Jayson Tatum to an ankle injury last game and is doubtful for this game and will likely miss at least a few games.  Boston will now be playing its 4th road game in 6 days.  The Celtics have questionable motivation right now as they are pretty much locked in to the No. 2 seed in the East.  I don't think they should be favorite on the road over the surging Suns without Tatum.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

20* Lakers/Pacers ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 233.5

The Lakers just got LeBron James back from injury and are one of the best offensive teams in the league with James, Doncic and Reeves running the show.  The problem is their defensive warts have really shown of late.

The OVER is 7-2 in Lakers last nine games overall.  They have allowed 118 points or more in five of their last eight games.  They gave up 146 to the Bulls the other night in James' first game back from injury.

It won't get any easier for them against the Pacers, who recently got Tyrese Haliburton back from injury and are at full strength right now.  The Pacers rank 7th in pace and 9th in offensive rating.

The Pacers and Lakers have combined for at least 231 points in six of their last nine meetings.  That includes a 124-117 win by the Lakers for 241 combined points in their 1st meeting this season on February 8th.  James and Doncic both did not play in that meeting.  It should be another shootout in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Clippers ML -122

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in six of their last seven games.  The only team that held them below that number was the Thunder, who are the best defensive team in the league.  And they played the Thunder to the wire in a 2-point loss last time out.

The Clippers were coming off off five straight blowout wins beating Miami by 15 and Atlanta by 23 on the road, and crushing Charlotte by 35, Cleveland by 13 and Memphis by 20 at home.  The Clippers should be fresh playing just their 3rd game in 7 days and coming in on two days' rest.

A big reason I'm fading the Knicks is because they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the Mavericks last night, who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back themselves.  Four starters played at least 33 minutes for the Knicks.  

They are without their top two PG's in Brunson and McBride, and I just don't trust them that much until Brunson returns.  The Knicks are 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois State ML -135

Illinois State has a sneaky rest advantage over Cleveland State.  Not only were they off from March 7th until March 23rd, but the Redbirds also got a day in between their 78-70 win over Presbyterian as 5-point favorites on Sunday and their 78-73 win over Incarnate Word as 6.5-point favorites on Tuesday.

I don't think the Redbirds are tired at all, and if anything they have shaken off the rust of being off for over two weeks and will be better off for it playing their 3rd game in 4 days here.  Meanwhile, Cleveland State will be playing for a 3rd consecutive day after beating Queens-Charlotte 88-73 on Monday and Florida Gulf Coast 72-65 on Tuesday.  Not to mention, the Redbirds got to play the early game last night while the Vikings had to play the late game, which only adds to the rest advantage for Illinois State especially with an early 5:00 EST tip tonight.

Illinois State is far and away the superior offensive team in this matchup.  The Redbirds rank 87th in adjusted offense and 18th in effective FG percentage.  The Vikings rank just 213th in adjusted offense and 246th in effective FG percentage.

The Vikings rely on forcing turnovers (9th, 22.2%) and grabbing offensive rebounds (44th, 34.6%).  Well, that makes this a great matchup for the Redbirds.  Illinois State ranks 90th in turnover rate on offense turning it over on only 15.9% of possessions.  Better yet, the Redbirds rank 11th in the country allowing offensive rebounds on only 24.9% of opponent possessions.  Bet Illinois State on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers +7

The Portland Trail Blazers continue to play hard to try and make the playoffs.  They are only 3 games behind the Suns for the final play-in spot.  The Blazers have gone 19-12 SU & 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games overall.  

The Blazers are rested and will be playing just their 6th game in 13 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight hosting the East's No. 1 seed Cleveland Cavaliers, a team that is struggling to find motivation right now.

The Cavaliers are pretty much locked into the No. 1 seed in the East.  They are playing like it going 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone win coming against tanking Utah.  Now the Cavaliers have elected to rest Donovan Mitchell playing their 5th road game in 8 days.

Portland wants revenge from a 133-129 (OT) loss at Cleveland on March 2nd in their first meeting this season.  The Blazers blew a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter in that game.  The Cavs were without Mitchell in that one as well, and the Blazers can hang with the Cavs without Mitchell as they have proven once already.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

20* North Texas/Oklahoma State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Oklahoma State PK

Oklahoma State quietly has one of the better home-court advantages in the country this season.  The Cowboys have gone 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games wit their only losses coming to Arizona and Texas Tech.  They upset Iowa State and Cincinnati during this stretch.

The Cowboys have been impressive in the NIT thus far crushing Wichita State 89-79 at home and upsetting SMU as 8.5-point road dogs.  That win over Wichita State is significant here because it gives them a common opponent with North Texas, who played the Shockers twice in AAC play.

North Texas only beat Wichita State by 2 at home and by 4 on the road in their two meetings this season.  The Mean Green have a great home-court advantage and used it with lackluster wins by 11 over Furman and by 2 over Arkansas State to get here.  But now the Mean Green are on the road where they aren't nearly as dominant.

The Big 12 is much stronger than the AAC and I'll gladly side with the Big 12 team here at a PK when I believe the Cowboys should be favored.  Bet Oklahoma State Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Rockets OVER 235

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in pace this season.  The OVER is 4-0 in Hawks last four games overall going for 236 or more combined points in all four games.  That includes game against Brooklyn and Charlotte, which are two dead nuts under teams.

The Houston Rockets are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall.  They are fully healthy right now and a dangerous offensive team when that's the case.  They won't mind getting up and down with the Hawks tonight.

The Hawks and Rockets have combined for at least 235 points in five of their last seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Hawks +8.5

The Atlanta Hawks are quietly playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall to try and improve their playoff positioning.

The Houston Rockets are also playing well, but they just had their 9-game winning streak snapped with a 116-111 upset home loss to the Denver Nuggets without Nikola Jokic last time out.  I always like fading teams after having an extending winning streak snapped because there tends to be a hangover effect.

It's not like the Rockets are blowing anyone out, either.  Each of their last four wins have come by 8 points or fewer and against suspect competition in the Bulls, 76ers, Magic and Heat.  This is a step up in class for the Rockets tonight against a surging Atlanta team.  

The Hawks are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Rockets.  All three losses came by 6 points or fewer.  In fact, the Hawks haven't lost by more than 7 points to the Rockets in any of their last 10 meetings, making for a 10-0 system backing Atlanta pertaining to this 8.5-point spread.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Illinois State/Incarnate Word OVER 148

Illinois State has been a dead nuts OVER team this season.  The Redbirds are 20-13 OVER in all games.  They rank 84th in adjusted offense and 15th in effective FG percentage, so they are elite offensively.  The problem is defense, where the Redbirds rank 237th in adjusted defense and 306th in effective FG percentage defense.

Incarnate Word profiles similarly where the Cardinals are much better on offense than they are on defense.  The Cardinals rank 151st in adjusted offense and 121st in effective FG percentage offensively, while ranking just 294th in adjusted defense and 239th in effective FG percentage defensively.

Both teams are a combined 3-0 OVER in this CBI Tournament.  Illinois State went for 148 combined points with Presbyterian with a 142.5-point total.  Incarnate Word sailed OVER the total in its first two games going for 177 combined points with Manhattan with a 147.5-point total and 158 combined points with Jacksonville with a 142-point total.  It will be more of the same here tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Bucks/Suns NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -2.5

The Phoenix Suns have a lot to play for right now.  They are tied with the Dallas Mavericks for the final play-in spot in the West.  And with the way they have been playing recently, they are clearly fighting hard to make the playoffs.

The Suns have gone 6-4 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They upset the Clippers, took the Nuggets to OT on the road, only lost by 2 at Memphis, crushed the Kings by 16 at home, crushed the Raptors by 40 at home, covered in a 6-point home win over the surging Bucks and upset the Cavaliers by 11 as 8.5-point home dogs last time out.

The Suns have now had the last two days off to rest, recover and get healthy.  They are without Bradley Beal, but the chemistry has actually been better for them without him.  I expect a big effort from the Suns laying the short number here tonight.

The Bucks have had two easy games in their last two due to injuries to their opponents.  The Lakers rested everyone when they beat them, and the Kings were without two starters in Monk and Sabonis.  So the Bucks have been able to get by without Damian Lillard, who they will be without again tonight.  

I don't expect it to go nearly as easy for them against this motivated, rested Suns team tonight.  The Bucks will be playing their 10th game in 17 days and their 4th consecutive road game.  This is a great spot to back the short home favorite.  Bet the Suns Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +3.5

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now as they are fighting hard to make the playoffs.  The Bulls are 7-2 SU & 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with their two losses coming by 3 at Houston and by 6 at Phoenix.

They upset the Lakers by 31 as 10.5-point road dogs, upset the Kings by 12 as 7.5-point road dogs, beat the Jazz by 14 as 4.5-point road favorites, beat the Nets by 6 as 2-point home favorites, upset the Pacers by 18 as 4-point home dogs, upset the Heat by 5 as 5-point road dogs and upset the Magic by 2 as 8.5-point road dogs.  They have beaten a lot of playoff teams during this stretch.

The Bulls are showing what they are capable of when they are as healthy as they are right now.  Now I fully expect them to upset the short-handed, tired Denver Nuggets tonight.  The Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 116-111 upset win in Houston last night.

Now the Nuggets will not only be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but also their 10th game in 16 days.  It's no wonder they are struggling right now going 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They are without their best player in Nikola Jokic, and I wouldn't be surprised if they rest some more guys tonight after Murray played 38 minutes, Gordon 37, Braun 34 and Porter Jr. 32 last night.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Dallas Mavericks ML -125

The Dallas Mavericks are tied with the Phoenix Suns for the final play-in spot in the West.  They are desperate for wins right now, and highly motivated to make the playoffs with the prospects that Anthony Davis could possibly return tonight as he has been upgraded to questionable.  At the very least he should be back soon, which gives them hope.

The Mavericks have been much more competitive in their last two games even without Davis, and likely due to the return of a healthy PJ Washington.  They led the Pacers by 7 in the final minute before blowing it to lose 135-131 as 10.5-point road dogs on Wednesday, March 19th.  They bounced back with a 123-117 win as 9.5-point home dogs to the Detroit Pistons on Friday.

Now the Mavericks have had the last two days off so they are rested and ready to go.  While they have a lot to play for, the Brooklyn Nets have nothing to play for but pride here down the stretch.  And I think this is a terrible spot for the Nets, who will be without their floor general in De'Angelo Russell tonight.

But the reason it looks like a bad spot is that they were just in three straight dog fights on the road to the Pacers (twice) and the Celtics.  They only lost those three games by a combined 19 points.  I was on the Nets in those games because they were catching a ton of points.  Now they have to win this game to beat us, and I don't think they'll be able to do it.  They return home from that road trip, and they are a very tired team playing their 9th game in 15 days.  Bet the Mavericks on the Money Line Monday.

20* Oregon/Arizona West Region No-Brainer on Oregon +5

In Dana Altmann I trust.  He is 17-7-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament in his career as a head coach.  He always has his Oregon Ducks playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch, and this season has been no exception.  The Ducks have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games with their lone loss coming to Michigan State, which had the rest advantage with a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.

Oregon should also have what feels like home-court advantage with this game being played in Seattle, Washington.  It's about 4 hours up the coast from Eugene.  No question it felt like a home game for the Ducks when they blasted Liberty 81-52 as 7-point favorites in the Round of 64.  They'll still be fresh after getting to rest their starters and playing just their 2nd game in 9 days.

Arizona made the Big 12 Championship Game and will be playing its 5th game in 11 days as a result.  The Wildcats were gifted that run because they beat a tired Kansas team off an OT game and beat a Texas Tech team that was without two of its top three scorers.  Reality set in with a 8-point loss to Houston as 5.5-point dogs in the championship game.

I just don't trust this Arizona team led by Caleb Love.  He is eventually going to shoot them out of a game in the NCAA Tournament, and I believe this is the game he does.  Bet Oregon Sunday.

15* Thunder/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +3

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in six consecutive games.  They are coming off five straight blowout wins beating Miami by 15 and Atlanta by 23 on the road, and crushing Charlotte by 35, Cleveland by 13 and Memphis by 20 at home.

The Clippers should be fresh playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  Now they want to show the top seed in the West in the Oklahoma City Thunder that they are for real.  No question the Clippers will be the more motivated team tonight.

The Thunder are going to struggle to find motivation here down the stretch.  They are locked into the No. 1 seed in the West sitting 12.5 games ahead of 2nd place Houston.  They have decided to rest players at times because of it, and tonight they will be without Jalen Williams and possibly Lu Dort, who are their two best defenders.  Life will be much easier on Khawi and Harden without these two.  Bet the Clippers Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Thunder/Clippers OVER 226.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.  The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in six consecutive games.

Now they play another dead nuts OVER team in the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Thunder rank 8th in pace and 3rd in offensive rating.  They have scored at least 118 points in six of their last seven games overall despite resting some guys during this stretch.  They may be without two of their best defenders tonight as Jalen Williams is for sure out, and Lu Dort is questionable.

The Clippers and Thunder have combined for at least 232 points in five of their last seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* UAB/Santa Clara NIT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 165.5

NIT OVERS have been a great bet for a couple seasons now.  The OVER is 14-4 in 18 NIT games thus far this season.  Books just can't set these totals high enough.  This is one of my favorite OVERS in NIT play today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Jacksonville State/UC-Irvine NIT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 138.5

NIT OVERS have been a great bet for a couple seasons now.  The OVER is 14-4 in 18 NIT games thus far this season.  Books just can't set these totals high enough.  This is one of my favorite OVERS in NIT play today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Ole Miss/Iowa State South Region No-Brainer on Ole Miss +5.5

Iowa State has just two wins against NCAA Tournament teams since January 16th, and one of those was Lipscomb.  I think the Cyclones are overvalued after that win against overmatched Lipscomb, and they will get a much stiffer test here against Ole Miss.

This is where the loss of Keshon Gilbert (13.4 PPG, 4.1 APG, 1.7 SPG) will hurt Iowa State.  Ole Miss has some of the best guards in the country who can handle Iowa State's pressure, and Gilbert was a big part of that pressure defensively not even factoring in what he means for them on the offensive end.

Ole Miss ranks 3rd in the country in turnover rate on offense turning it over on just 13% of possessions.  That will be the difference in this game as Ole Miss takes care of the ball offensively and gets good shots each time down.

Ole Miss beat UNC 71-64 in the Round of 64, shutting down what was previously one of the hottest teams in the country, and certainly boasts one of the best offenses in the country.  This is actually a step down in class for this Ole Miss defense.  I also trust Ole Miss head coach Chris Beard immensely.  Beard has 5 wins as a seed line underdog in the NCAA Tournament in his career.  Bet Ole Miss Sunday.

15* Sunday Round of 32 Total DOMINATOR on Ole Miss/Iowa State UNDER 146

This is where the loss of Keshon Gilbert (13.4 PPG, 4.1 APG) will hurt Iowa State.  The Cyclones were able to get by Lipscomb 82-55 for just 137 combined points without Gilbert in their opener.  They shot 58.3% as a team and it still stays UNDER the 144-point total.  Nothing will come easy against this elite Ole Miss defense today.

Ole Miss beat UNC 71-64 in the Round of 64 for just 135 combined points, shutting down what was previously one of the hottest teams in the country, and certainly boasts one of the best offenses in the country.  This is actually a step down in class for this Ole Miss defense.

Ole Miss ranks 20th in adjusted defense while Iowa State ranks 8th.  So these are two of the top defensive teams in the country.  Nothing will come easy for either team today, and the UNDER looks like a great bet as a result.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Colorado State/Maryland West Region No-Brainer on Colorado State +7.5

I've been riding Colorado State during basically their entire run to win the Mountain West and make the NCAA Tournament.  I'm not about to jump off now. No team in the country has been more underrated down the stretch than Colorado State.

The Rams are 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all 11 wins by 8 points or more. They have absolutely been crushing teams.  A big way to tell just how underrated a team is is with ATS margin.  The Rams covered the spread in those 11 games by a total of 128.5 points, or by an average of 11.7 points per game.

I'm certainly going to keep riding the Rams catching 7.5 points against Maryland.  No question the Terrapins have one of the most talented starting 5's in the country.  But they also have one of the worst benches in the country.  And their depth will be more tested here playing their 2nd game in 3 days.

We saw that play out in the Big 10 Tournament as after blasting Illinois by 23, the Terrapins were upset the next day by Michigan as 4.5-point favorites.  The Terrapins may win and advantage here, but not without a fight from a Rams team that couldn't possibly be playing with more confidence than they are right now.  Bet Colorado State Sunday.

15* Arkansas State/North Texas NIT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 136

NIT OVERS have been a great bet for a couple seasons now.  The OVER is 14-4 in 18 NIT games thus far this season.  Books just can't set these totals high enough.  This is one of my favorite OVERS in NIT play today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on 76ers/Hawks OVER 239

The Philadelphia 76ers are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 8-1-1 OVER in their last 10 games with 233 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  They are playing a lot of youngsters right now and are all offense and no defense.  They rank 11th in pace and 27th in defensive rating during this stretch.  They have scored at least 120 points in five of their last eight games overall.

The Atlanta Hawks have been a dead nuts OVER team all season.  They rank 2nd in pace this season.  They have added some firepower off the bench during before the trade deadline in LeVert, Niang and Mann that has made them even more of an OVER team.  The Hawks have scored at least 119 points in nine of their last 11 games.

The Hawks are 3-0 OVER in their last three games despite playing two dead nuts under teams in Brooklyn and Charlotte, plus playing the Warriors who were without Steph Curry.  Now they face another OVER team here in the 76ers, and the result should be an absolute shootout.

The Hawks won 132-123 for 255 combined points in their last meeting on March 10th two weeks ago.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with 239 or more combined points in all six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +7.5

The Portland Trail Blazers continue to play hard to try and make the playoffs.  They are only 2 games behind the Suns for the final play-in spot.  The Blazers have gone 19-11 SU & 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games overall.  

The Blazers are rested and will be playing just their 5th game in 11 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight hosting the defending champion Boston Celtics, a team that is struggling to find motivation right now, and one that is also banged up.

The Celtics are basically locked in to the No. 2 seed in the East.  They are 5 games behind the Cavaliers for 1st place and 7 games ahead of the Knicks in 3rd place with just 12 games remaining.  Their biggest focus right now is to get guys healthy going into the playoffs, not winning games.

That has been evident with their play of late going 2-4 ATS in their last six games with some very concerning results.  They only beat Utah by 6 as 15.5-point favorites, lost outright at home to the Thunder, only beat the Nets by 2 as 11.5-point favorites and beat the Nets again by 8 as 14-point favorites.  They are without Jaylen Brown, and Tatum, Holiday and Porzingis are all questionable to play tonight.  They should not be 7.5-point road favorites as a result.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

15* St. Mary's/Alabama East Region ANNIHILATOR on OVER 149

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted tempo, 4th in average length of offensive possession and 4th in adjusted offense.  This total of 149 is so low for a game involving Alabama right now.

Amazingly, Alabama and its opponents have combined for at least 166 points in 11 of their last 12 games overall.  Better yet, the Crimson Tide and their opponents have gone for at least 153 combined points in 17 consecutive games, making for a 17-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 149-point total.

Yes, St. Mary's plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country.  But Alabama plays its game no matter the opponent, and it's St. Mary's that is going to have to change its style a little to match just how potent the Crimson Tide are offensively.  I think Alabama is overrated defensively, so St. Mary's will have plenty of offensive success as well.  Alabama allowed 81 points to Robert Morris last round and has allowed 81 or more points in four of its last five games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.