20* Lakers/Hawks NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 239

The Atlanta Hawks were already an OVER team but that's especially the case without their most important defender in Clint Capela, who remains out with a calf injury.  The Hawks rank 5th in the NBA in pace and they will be facing a Lakers team that ranks 3rd in the NBA in pace.  This game will clearly be played at one of the most frantic paces of the season.

The Lakers have had no problem scoring this season as they are putting up 115.6 points per game despite all their injuries, but they are fully healthy now with the exception of Anthony Davis.  They are terrible on defense which is why they are 14-21, allowing 117.6 points per game.  The Hawks are also terrible on defense allowing 115.1 points per game.  They have allowed at least 122 points in six of their last 10 games overall, while the Lakers have allowed at least 124 points in four of their last six and at least 110 points in 14 of their last 15 games.

Both meetings between the Hawks and Lakers were absolute shootouts last season as they combined for 252 and 250 points.  This is a high total tonight, but it's not high enough.  The OVER is 7-1 in Lakers last eight road games.  The OVER is 9-1 in Lakers last 10 games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson -1.5

Clemson is 10-3 this season with two losses coming by a combined 5 points.  The Tigers have a tremendous home-court advantage as they are 7-0 at home this season and scoring 81.0 points per game at home.  They'll be excited to be playing their first home game since December 7th whlile coming off two of their most complete games of the season, beating Richmond by 28 on a neutral as 2-point favorites and topping Georgia Tech by 13 on the road as 1.5-point favorites.

NC State has only played one true road game all season.  The Wolf Pack lost that game 73-80 at Miami as 4.5-point dogs.  They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here as only 1.5-point road underdogs in their second true road game of the season.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  Clemson is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following two consecutive games with 19 or more assists.  They are sharing the ball well right now which is a big reason they are coming off two of their most impressive performances of the season.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. up-tempo teams that average at least 62 shots per game.  Take Clemson Friday.

20* Colorado/Stanford Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford -2

Stanford is just 5-7 this season and favored tonight over Colorado.  The reason is simple.  They have played one of the toughest schedules in the country and are better than their record, and we are actually getting them at a great value tonight due to that poor record.

Stanford has faced the 17th-toughest schedule in the country.  Their seven losses have come to Wisconsin, San Diego State, Ole Miss, Memphis, UCLA, ASU and Texas with all seven losses coming by 14 points or fewer.

Colorado is 8-5 against the 84th-ranked schedule and has played a home-heavy schedule.  The Buffaloes have only played two true road games this season.  They lost both, including a 74-83 upset loss at Grambling as 14.5-point favorites and a 63-73 loss at Washington as 1-point favorites.

The Buffaloes are 29-59-1 ATS in their last 89 road games.  Colorado is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a win.  The Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and playing well heading into this one.  Take Stanford Thursday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Rockets +11.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Dallas Mavericks.  They are 4-0 in their last four games overall and needed a 60-point effort and a big comeback in the final minutes to beat the Knicks 126-121 (OT) at home last time out.

This is now a clear letdown spot for the Mavericks, who beat the Rockets 112-106 on the road during this four-game winning streak.  They won't be excited to play them again, while the Rockets will be out for revenge and will be the more motivated team.  Getting 11.5 points with the Rockets given the situation is too much tonight.

After all, Dallas has won by double-digits only five times in 35 games this season.  They aren't blowing teams out because they don't play great defense.  They will let Houston hang around in this one as they just have a way of playing to their level of competition.

Dallas is 0-9 ATS after winning four or five of its last six games this season.  The Mavericks are 1-8 ATS following a win by 6 points or less this season.  Dallas is 8-17 ATS as a favorite this season.  The Mavericks are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

25* NBA DOG OF THE YEAR on Sacramento Kings +2.5

I had a tough beat on the Sacramento Kings +3.5 last night as they blew a 20-point lead and lost by 7 to the Denver Nuggets.  I will get my revenge tonight, and so will the Kings as they win this game outright in the rematch.  They will be the more motivated team after blowing that big lead, and the Nuggets won't show up at all after just beating the Kings last night.

The Kings are a young, deep team that can handle this 2nd of a back-to-back much better than the Nuggets can.  Jokic played 37 minutes and Murray 38 minutes for the Nuggets last night.  Four of five starters for the Kings played less than 33 minutes with the only exception being Kevin Huerter and his 37 minutes.  

This will only be the 2nd game in 5 days for the Kings while it will be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Nuggets.  Denver used a lot of energy coming back from that 20-point deficit last night, too.  The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, proving they handle this spot very well.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks -4

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Milwaukee Bucks following their first three-game losing streak of the season.  It has come against a brutal schedule with road losses to Cleveland, Brooklyn and Boston, which are arguably the three best teams in the East outside of Milwaukee, so it's totally understandable.

But now the Bucks come in rested and ready to go playing on two days' rest, and they will obviously be highly motivated for a victory here.  The Bulls have gone just 9-15 SU in their last 24 games overall and are coming off a 15-point upset home loss to the lowly Houston Rockets.  They just cannot be trusted on a nightly basis.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Chicago) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread against an opponent that is coming off three or more consecutive ATS losses are 42-17 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Milwaukee) - after being beating by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against an opponent that went over the total by 54 or more points in their last 10 games are 32-9 (78%) ATS since 1996.

Home-court advantage has meant little in this series as the road team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The road team is also 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Milwaukee is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 trips to Chicago.  The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Chicago is 18-37 ATS in its last 55 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take the Bucks Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Tennessee/Ole Miss UNDER 131.5

Tennessee is a dead nuts UNDER team.  They play slower than average and rank 1st in the country in adjusted defense.  They allow just 52.7 points per game and 32.9% shooting, holding opponents to 20.7 points per game less than their season averages.  They also only shoot 41.8% as a team including 33% from 3-point range.

Ole Miss ranks 250th in adjusted tempo and plays even slower than Tennessee.  The Rebels rank 52nd in adjusted defense.  They are holding opponents to 63.5 points per game and 40.5% shooting, limiting them to 9.7 points per game less than their season averages.  They shoot just 44.6% as a team including 31.4% from 3-point range.

I expect both teams to be rusty on offense coming back from Christmas Break, but for both teams to be locked in defensively and giving big effort in this SEC opener.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Vols last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Rebels last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +3.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Sacramento Kings after upset losses to the Hornets and Wizards in two of their last three games.  The Kings come back highly motivated for a victory tonight and rested and ready to go coming in on three days' rest.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Denver Nuggets after going 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall including an OT win over a depleted Suns team on Christmad Day.  In fact, the Nuggets have won six of those seven games at home with their lone road victory coming by a single point at Portland.  They also lost by 18 at the Lakers in their other road game and are just 9-8 SU & 6-10-1 ATS on the road this season.

Denver is 0-7 ATS in road games following two or more consecutive wins this season, losing by an average of 10.3 points per game in this spot.  Sacramento is 11-3 ATS after playing a home game this season.  The Kings are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following three consecutive games where they allowed a shooting percentage of 47% or higher.  The Nuggets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games playing on one days' rest.  The Kings are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five home meetings.  Bet the Kings Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -7.5

The Memphis Grizzlies have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are 13-2 SU & 12-3 ATS at home this season.  They are as healthy as they have been all season right now with Desmond Bane recently returning to the lineup, and they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.

The Phoenix Suns are far from healthy.  They will be without four of their top seven scorers tonight in Devin Booker (27.1 PPG), Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG), Cameron Payne (12.7 PPG) and Landry Shamet (9.4 PPG).  The loss of Shamet is big because he was coming on strong in the absence of Booker, scoring 25.7 PPG in his last three games with 19 made 3-pointers.

The Grizzlies just beat the short-handed Suns 125-100 on the road as 2.5-point favorites two games back.  They were then upset by the Warriors on Christmas Day, so they won't be feeling fat and happy here.  They will take the Suns seriously and put them away as they return home highly motivated to bounce back from that loss to Golden State.

Memphis is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games after going under the total.  Memphis is 36-14-1 ATS in its last 51 home games.  Roll with the Grizzlies Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -3

The Orlando Magic are flying under the radar right now.  They are a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall and have won eight of their last nine games SU with their lone loss coming by a single point at Atlanta.  But they don't get the respect other teams get due to their 13-21 record overall.

Now they take on the struggling Los Angeles Lakers who are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and just not a very good team without Anthony Davis, who remains out.  The Lakers don't play any defense allowing 124 or more points in all four losses while allowing 118.0 points per game on the season.  Now they have to take on a Magic team that is clicking offensively scoring 111 or more points in eight of their last nine games overall.

The Lakers are 2-12 ATS as road underdogs this season.  The Magic are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 130 points or more.  Orlando is 10-1 ATS following a win this season.  Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.  Orlando has a big rest advantage playing on three days' rest while the Lakers had to play in Dallas on Christmas Day and will be playing their 6th game in 10 days.  Take the Magic Tuesday.

20* Hornets/Blazers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 237

La'Melo Ball just returned for the Charlotte Hornets and they are a dead nuts OVER team with him in the lineup.  They have combined for 231 or more points in seven consecutive games now, including 264 with the Lakers last time out, and they should easily top this 237-point total against the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.

The Portland Trail Blazers are a potent offensive team with the trio of Lillard, Simons and Grant all healthy and that's the case right now.  They have scored at least 116 points in seven of their last 10 games overall, but they have also allowed 111 or more points in 15 of their last 18 games overall so they are not a very good defensive team.  Charlotte ranks 27th in defensive efficiency while Portland ranks 20th.

The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.  The OVER is 10-1 in Hornets last 11 games when playing on two days' rest.  The OVER is 19-7 in Hornets last 26 road games.  The OVER is 5-1 in Blazers last six home games.  The OVER is 15-6-1 in Blazers last 22 games when playing on two days' rest.  Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Jazz/Spurs OVER 235.5

The San Antonio Spurs are fully healthy for the first time basically all season.  The Utah Jazz are fully healthy with the exception of Kelly Olynyk.  These are two dead nuts OVER teams right now given their health and the way they play.

The Spurs rank 8th in the NBA in pace while the Jazz rank 12th.  The Jazz rank 5th in offensive efficiency and are a great offensive team.  Both teams are terrible defensively with the Spurs ranking dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency and the Jazz ranking 25th.

The Spurs are coming off two very high scoring games with 246 combined points against the Magic and 243 combined points against the Pelicans.  The Jazz have seen 232 and 237 combined points in their last two games coming in.

The OVER is 27-9 in the last 36 meetings in San Antonio.  The OVER is 6-1 in Spurs last seven games overall.  The OVER is 6-2 in Jazz last eight games when playing on three or more days' rest.  Both teams are rested and ready to get up and down the floor at a hectic pace tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Pelicans OVER 235.5

Two great offensive teams that like to play fast square off tonight when the Indiana Pacers visit the New Orleans Pelicans.  The Pacers rank 3rd in the NBA in pace while the Pelicans rank 11th.  The Pelicans rank 6th in offensive efficiency while the Pacers rank 21st in defensive efficiency.

The Pelicans are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with combined scores of 253, 243, 247, 232, 261, 221, 253 and 245 points.  These teams met earlier this season on November 7th with the Pacers winning 129-122 for 251 combined points.

Indiana is 42-21 OVER in its last 63 games with a total of 230 or higher.  New Orleans is 40-17 OVER in its last 57 home games following four or more consecutive OVERS.  The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Nets/Cavs NBA TV No-Brainer on Cleveland -2

The Cleveland Cavaliers had won five straight games prior to getting upset by the Raptors at home last time out.  Now I think it's a great 'buy low' spot on the Cavaliers off that rare upset home loss.  

After all, the Cavaliers are 16-3 SU & 14-5 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  I think that was a letdown and sandwich spot for the Cavaliers as they were coming off the 114-106 win over the Bucks and had the Nets on deck.  The Nets will now get their full attention off that upset loss to the Raptors.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Nets, who are 8-0 SU in their last eight games overall against a very soft schedule.  They will meet their match tonight in the Cavaliers and this winning streak will come to an end.  They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to this streak.

Brooklyn is 0-4 ATS in its last four trips to Cleveland.  The Nets are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS win.  The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Cleveland is 5-0-2 ATS in its last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Take the Cavaliers Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -6

The Golden State Warriors are just atrocious without Stephen Curry (30.0 PPG, 6.8 APG, 6.6 RPG) and Andrew Wiggins (19.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG), their top two scorers.  They lost their last two games without them by 36 at New York and by 30 at Brooklyn.  It will be more of the same today against the Memphis Grizzlies.

While the Warriors are banged up right now, the Grizzlies are back to full strength with Desmond Bane recently returning to the lineup.  We saw what they were capable of fully healthy as they blasted the Suns by 25 on the road last time out to improve to 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with all eight wins coming by 8 points or more.  

They are phenomenal defensively, holding seven of their last eight opponents to 105 points or fewer.  The Warriors have allowed 118 or more points in five of their last six including 143 to Brooklyn and 132 to New York in their last two games.  They give up 117.9 points per game on the season.

Memphis will have no problem kicking Golden State while they are down after getting eliminated by them in the playoffs last season.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Memphis) - after leading their previous game by 15 points or more at halftime against an opponent after a game with a combined score of 255 points or more are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Lakers +7.5

The Dallas Mavericks are just 8-19-2 ATS in their last 29 games overall and have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season.  In their 33 games this season, they have just 7 wins by more than 7 points.  Getting 7.5 points with the Los Angeles Lakers is tremendous value on Christmas Day.

The Lakers are without Anthony Davis but they are healthy everywhere else.  They come in highly motivated for a victory after losing three consecutive games, so it's a good time to 'buy low' on them.  The Mavericks are without two key pieces in Maxi Kleber and Dorian Finney-Smith.

I also think it's a bad spot for the Mavericks, who will be returning home following a four-game road trip and there will be a ton of distractions to deal with at home especially with it being Christmas.  It will also be the 10th game in 17 days for the Mavericks, so they will be playing on tired legs.

Dallas is 0-8 ATS following a win by 6 points or less this season.  The Mavericks are 3-12 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Dallas is 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Lakers Sunday.

20* Hornets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 235.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace and are a terrible defensive team.  They allow 117.3 points per game on the season and have allowed 116 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.

The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team, too.  They rank 26th in defensive efficiency and 9th in pace, this despite playing without La'Melo Ball for most of the season.  But Ball is back now so they will be playing even faster and will be more efficient on offense with him.

The Lakers have combined for 234 or more points with their opponents in eight consecutive games.  The Hornets and their opponents have combined for 231 or more points in six consecutive games.  They have allowed 119 or more points in nine consecutive games.

The Lakers are 11-1 OVER in their last 12 games vs. NBA Southeast division teams.  The OVER is 11-3 in Hornets 14 games as road underdogs this season.  The OVER is 20-8 in Hornets last 28 road games.  The OVER is 6-0 in Lakers last six games following an ATS loss.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Sacramento Kings -8.5

The Washington Wizards are 1-11 SU & 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Now they are in the toughest spot any NBA team has been in all season tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after playing in the altitude in Utah last night.  They will also be playing their 5th road game in 7 days tonight.

The Wizards will have nothing left in the tank for the Kings, who will test their tired legs by playing at the 5th-fasted pace in the NBA this season.  It will also be just the 3rd game in 7 days for Sacramento, so they are fresh and ready to go.  The Kings are 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall and one of the most improved teams in the NBA.  Six of those seven wins have come by 9 points or more, which would cover this 8.5-point spread.

The Wizards are 4-13-2 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  Washington is 0-6-2 ATS in its last eight Friday games.  Sacramento is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games when playing on one day of rest.  The Kings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Sacramento is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Washington.  Roll with the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5

The Memphis Grizzlies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing to the Thunder and Nuggets to open this road trip, which followed up a 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS run.  Look for them to get back to how they were playing before dropping those two games tonight.

Of course, it helps that the Suns are missing three of their top five scores.  The Suns are without Devin Booker (28.0 PPG, 5.8 APG), Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) and Cameron Payne (12.7 PPG) tonight.  They stand no chance of keeping this game competitive without these three.

The Suns are really struggling amidst all these injuries as they are going through their worst stretch of the season right now.  They are just 3-6 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall and coming off an upset home loss to the Washington Wizards as 7-point favorites.  That's a Wizards team that is 1-11 in their last 12 games overall with their lone victory against Phoenix.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Phoenix) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against an opponent that is off a road loss are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Memphis is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Grizzlies are 38-14 ATS in their last 52 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Phoenix.  Roll with the Grizzlies Friday.

20* Grizzlies/Suns ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 226.5

The Memphis Grizzlies have been dominant defensively since getting the best defender in the NBA in Jaren Jackson Jr. back from injury.  They have allowed 105 or fewer points in six of their last seven games overall.  But they have struggled on offense on the road of late, scoring 91 points against the Nuggets, 109 against the Thunder and 101 against the Timberwolves in three of their last four road games.

The Phoenix Suns are missing too many players right now to be trusted to score too many points, but they bring it defensively almost every night.  The Suns rank 11th in defensive efficiency while the Grizzlies rank 5th.  The Suns are without leading scorer Devin Booker (28.0 PPG, 5.8 APG), Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) and Cameron Payne (12.7 PPG), which also rank Top 5 in scoring for them.

Memphis is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games after winning four or five of its last six games.  Phoenix is 26-10-1 UNDER in its last 37 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Grizzlies last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 15-5 in the last 20 meetings in Phoenix.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Bucks/Nets OVER 225.5

The Brooklyn Nets are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  The OVER is 6-1 in their last seven games overall and we've seen 235 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  That makes this 225.5-point total very low for a game involving the Nets tonight.

The Bucks have both Giannis and Jrue Holiday back healthy and are only missing Khris Middleton, who they have played without for most of the season.  They have scored 123 or more points in three of their last five games overall while allowing at least 111 points in four of their last five.

The Nets and Bucks have combined for at least 226 points in five of their last six meetings.  The OVER is 4-0 in Bucks last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The OVER is 6-1 in Nets last seven games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Knicks UNDER 226

I love this spot for an UNDER bet between the New York Knicks and Chicago Bulls.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and this will be the 3rd meeting in 10 days between the Knicks and Bulls.

In their first meeting on December 14th, the Bulls and Knicks combined for 234 points at the end of regulation before going to OT.  That familiarity took its toll in the 2nd meeting on December 16th with the Bulls and Knicks combining for just 205 points.  And now we have a 226-point total for the 3rd meeting, which is way too high.

The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings and the Bulls and Knicks have combined for 213 or fewer points in seven of those nine meetings.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Knicks last 11 games overall.  Chicago is 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 games when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Los Angeles Clippers +3.5

The Los Angeles Clippers were the preseason favorites to win the NBA title and for good reason with their star power and depth.  Well, they were injured for most of the season, but now we are seeing what they are capable of when healthy, especially when having Kawhi Leonard on the court.

The Clippers have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and have won five of their last six.  The only game they lost was in a 2nd of a back-to-back situation when they sat Leonard.  Now the Clippers will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days and have all hands on deck tonight.  They should not be underdogs to the Philadelphia 76ers.

It's time to 'sell high' on the 76ers, who are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall against a very soft schedule.  The only decent teams they played were the Kings and Raptors, and they needed OT to beat the Raptors and OT to beat the Lakers.  The other wins came against the Hornets, Warriors without their stars and Pistons.  This is a huge step up in class for the 76ers tonight.

The Clippers are 9-1 ATS following a non-conference game this season.  Wrong team favored here.  Roll with the Clippers Friday.

20* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Spurs/Magic OVER 226

The Orlando Magic are healthy and playing well right now, especially on offense.  They have gone 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall and have scored at least 111 points in seven of those eight games.

The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team.  They play fast and ply no defense, ranking dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency this season.  They allow 119.7 points per game and opponents shoot 50.4% against them.  The Magic rank just 20th in defensive efficiency, too.

The Spurs just lost 117-126 at New Orleans last night for 243 combined points, and that was a Pelicans team missing Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram.  The Spurs didn't have leading scorer Keldon Johnson (21.1 PPG) for that game, but he is expected to return tonight and the Spurs are as healthy as they have been all season now.

The OVER is 5-1 in Spurs last six games overall.  The OVER is 4-1 in Magic last five games overall.  The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  San Antonio is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Miss +8.5

Southern Miss is one of the most underrated teams in the country.   The Golden Eagles are 11-1 SU this season with their lone loss by 2 points.  They are also 8-1 ATS in their lined games.

Amazingly, Southern Miss has done its best work in true road games this season.  The Golden Eagles are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in true road games with an upset win at Vanderbilt by 12 as 16-point dogs, an upset win at Liberty by 4 as 11.5-point dogs and a blowout win at Lamar by 26 as 13.5-point favorites.

This is a terrible spot for UNLV.  They just had their 10-game winning streak to start the season snapped with a 73-75 home loss to San Francisco as 6-point favorites.  I always like fading teams after having a long winning streak snapped because they tend to be flat their next game out since they aren't trying to keep a streak alive.  It's the kind of loss that could easily beat the Rebels twice, let alone having to win by 9 points or more to beat us tonight.

The Golden Eagles are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  The Rebels won't have much of a home-court advantage at all tonight with a game this close to Christmas, and their home court is being factored into this line too much, especially considering how good the Golden Eagles have been on the road.  Take Southern Miss Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Jazz OVER 229

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 5th in offensive efficiency this season and 25th in defensive efficiency.  They face a Washington team that ranks 20th in defensive efficiency and has been much better on offense when both Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis are healthy.

Well, both of these teams are fully healthy right now with the exception of Collin Sexton for the Jazz.  But he has been out for a while now and the Jazz have continued playing in high-scoring games.  Indeed, the Jazz have seen 220 or more combined points in each of their last 19 games.

The Wizards are starting to feel it on offense scoring 113 or more points in three of their last four games as well as 111 or more points in seven of their last 10 games.  But they have allowed 110 or more points in 14 of their last 15 games overall.

These teams played earlier this season on November 12th with the Wizards winning 121-112 for 233 combined points.  Utah is 14-4 OVER in its last 18 home games following a win by 10 points or more.  Washington is 12-2 OVER in its last 14 games vs. Northwest Division opponents.  The OVER is 6-1-1 in Wizards last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Yale -13.5

The Yale Bulldogs are one of the best mid-majors in the country.  They are 9-3 this season with their three losses all coming on the road to the three best teams they have played in Colorado by 3 as 9-point dogs, Butler by 10 as 6.5-point dogs and Kentucky by 10 as 16-point dogs.  The Bulldogs have won the majority of their games in blowouts with seven of their nine wins coming by 13 points or more.

Now they face one of the worst teams in the country in Monmouth.  The Hawks are 1-11 SU & 4-8 ATS this season and getting outscored by 21.9 points per game.  Nine of their 11 losses have come by 15 points or more, so it's not asking much of Yale to cover this 13.5-point spread.  They are coming off a 34-point home loss to Charlotte.

The Bulldogs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Yale Thursday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Portland Trail Blazers -4

The Portland Trail Blazers will be out for revenge from a 121-123 loss at Oklahoma City on Monday.  Now they get to face the Thunder here two days later and don't have to wait long to get their revenge.  I expect them to blow the Thunder out of the building tonight.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKC) - off a close home win by 3 points or less in the first half of the season are 55-22 (71.4%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Portland) - off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent that is coming off a home win scoring 110 or more points are 58-22 (72.5%) ATS since 1996.

Plays home road favorites (Portland) - revenging a loss where opponents scored 110 or more points, off an upset loss as a favorite are 60-27 (69%) ATS over the last five seasons.  I always look to back teams that lost the first meeting in these quick rematch situations because they are the more motivated team.  Plus, they haven't adjusted the spread as Portland is once again a 4-point favorite just as it was on Monday.  Take the Blazers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Thunder OVER 234

Both the Portland Trail Blazers and Oklahoma City Thunder are dead nuts OVER teams right now.  They just combined for 244 points on Monday and will be playing in a rematch here.  It's not like they shot lights out either with the Blazers shooting 50% and the Thunder 45.5% for the game.

The Blazers have now scored at least 116 points in seven of their last nine games overall.  They have allowed at least 111 points in 14 of their last 16 games overall.  As long as Lillard, Simons and Grant are all on the court at the same time they are going to be an OVER team, and all three are healthy right now.

Oklahoma City has embraced an up-tempo style this season as they rank 4th in the NBA in pace.  As long as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is healthy and running the show, they are an OVER team as well.  They have allowed at least 110 points in 10 consecutive games coming in.

Portland is 8-1 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The OVER is 6-0 in Blazers last six games playing on one day of rest.  The OVER is 10-3 in Thunder last 13 home games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Magic/Rockets OVER 223

The Orlando Magic have gotten a lot healthier of late and are playing some of their best basketball of the season.  They have scored at least 111 points in six of their last seven games overall while going 6-1 during this stretch.

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 11th in pace this season and 27th in defensive efficiency.  The Magic also aren't a very good defensive team ranking 21st in defensive efficiency.

These teams met earlier this season with the Rockets winning 134-127 for 261 combined points.  The OVER is now 3-1 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 224 or more points in all four.  In fact, these teams have combined for at least 222 points in each of their last seven meetings, so this 223-point total is very low given their head-to-head history.  

They have averaged 234.3 combined points in their last seven meetings with none of those games going to overtime.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in those seven meetings.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Nets NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 223.5

The Brooklyn Nets are rolling right now going 6-0 in their last six games overall while scoring at least 112 points in all six victories and averaging 122.2 points per game with none of those games going to overtime.  I expect them to top that average tonight to lead the way in helping us cash this OVER ticket.

The Nets now play a Warriors squad that is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Warriors rank 6th in the NBA in pace this season and allow 117.1 points per game.  They have really slipped defensively and just gave up 134 points to the Knicks last night.  I know the Warriors have some injuries that hurt them offensively, but this total has been adjusted down too much for it.  They will get enough against a bad Brooklyn defense to help us cash this OVER.

The OVER is 5-0 in Warriors last five games overall.  The OVER is 20-7-2 in Warriors last 29 road games.  The OVER is 5-1 in Nets last six games overall.  The OVER is 13-3 in all Golden State road games this season.  The OVER is 11-2 in Warriors games when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.  The OVER is 9-0 in Warriors last nine games when playing their 4th road game in 7 days.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Georgia Tech +1.5

Wrong team favored here.  Georgia Tech has a big home-court advantage this season going 6-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home while outscoring opponents by 20.5 points per game.  Clemson is 0-1 in true road games this season with a loss at terrible South Carolina.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series with the home team going 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  Georgia Tech has owned Clemson recently going 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  

The Tigers are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 road games.  The Yellow Jackets are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games after committing 11 or fewer turnovers in three consecutive games.  Josh Pastner is 19-8 ATS in home games with a line of +3 to -3 as the coach of the Yellow Jackets.  Take Georgia Tech Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Kent State -3.5

Kent State is the most underrated team in the country.  The Golden Flashes are 8-3 SU & 9-0 ATS in their lined games this season.  Their three losses came at Gonzaga by 7 as 16-point dogs, at Houston by 5 as 19-point dogs and at College of Charleston by 2 as 2.5-point dogs.  Those losses alone show how good this team is without even going through their wins.

Now they take on a New Mexico State team that should be no match for them.  The Aggies are 6-4 this season with losses to St. Mary's by 13, to UC Irvine by 17, to UTEP by 3 and to Santa Clara by 1.  The six wins came against inferior competition.  This will be their toughest test of the season with the exception of that road loss at St. Mary's.

The Golden Flashes are 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall.  The Aggies are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a win by more than 20 points.  Bet Kent State Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on St. John's/Villanova UNDER 146.5

This is a pace war tonight.  St. John's likes to play fast, while Villanova ranks ranks 349th in the country in adjusted tempo and likes to play at a snail's pace.  The home team usually controls the tempo, so this game will be played at Villanova's pace.

Villanova's last four games have seen 136, 129, 133 and 135 combined points.  This is a very high total for any game involving Villanova.  We saw St. John's play one true road game at Iowa State against another team that likes to play at a slow pace.  That game saw just 131 combined points in a 71-60 victory for the Cyclones.

The UNDER is 9-0 in the last nine meetings between Villanova and St. John's.  Each of the last eight meetings have seen 144 or fewer combined points, including 139 or fewer in seven of them.  Enough said.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Eastern Illinois +33

Iowa moved this game up to a 3:30 EST start time due to snow in the forecast today.  That will take away their usual home-court advantage at night.  I think they just want to get in and get out with a win today and won't be concerned about getting margin.

That's going to make it really difficult for the Hawkeyes to cover this 33-point spread.  Not to mention, the Hawkeyes remain without their best player in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG), who is out until at least January.

Eastern Illinois is just 3-9 SU but 5-4-1 ATS and has not lost a single game by this kind of margin yet.  Their largest loss came by 30 at Illinois in the season opener, and if they can stay within 30 of Illinois, they can stay within 33 of Iowa without Murray.  They also only lost by 22 at Ohio State, another Big Ten opponent that is better than Iowa.  

They covered the spread in both of those games and will improve to 3-0 ATS against Big Ten teams with this inflated number.  The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Hawkeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Take Eastern Illinois Wednesday.

15* Grizzlies/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis ML -120

The Memphis Grizzlies are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with all seven victories coming by 8 points or more.  They were coming off a 41-point win over the Bucks and simply had a letdown against the Thunder last time out in an upset road loss as a double-digit favorite.  

They took the Thunder lightly, but they will be refocused now against the Nuggets.  Look for them to get back to playing their best basketball of the season as nobody is playing better right now.  They come in rested and ready to go on two days' rest and playing just their 4th game in 11 days.  They are fully healthy with the exception of Desmond Bane, who has been out since November 11 anyway.

Injuries are a much bigger concern for the Nuggets right now.  They are without Michael Porter Jr., Jamal Murray is questionable and Nikola Jokic is probable but dealing with a knee injury.  That's their three best players.  I love the matchup for the Grizzlies because they can guard Jokic better than anyone by putting Jaren Jackson Jr. on him, the league's best, most versatile defender.  Memphis has allowed 103 or fewer points in five of its last six games overall and 115 or fewer in nine consecutive games.

The Nuggets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Denver is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games playing on one days' rest.  The Nuggets are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games following a win.  Memphis is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Grizzlies on the Money Line Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +7.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Washington Wizards tonight.  They have lost 10 consecutive games but were competitive in all 10 as none of them came by more than 13 points, and six game by single-digits.  And they didn't have their best player in Bradley Beal for the majority of them.  Well, Beal is back healthy now and the Wizards are as healthy as they have been all season.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Phoenix Suns, who are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  But this is a terrible spot for the Suns as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 10th game in 17 days.

The Suns are getting way too much respect tonight for blowing out the Lakers last night, who were without both James and Davis and a few others.  Well, the Suns cannot be this big of a favorite given all their injury concerns right now.  The Suns are without Cam Johnson, and Devin Booker (groin) and Cameron Payne (foot) are both questionable.

Phoenix is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 game vs. a team with a winning % below .400 and has a way of playing to its level of competition.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Washington) - following three or more consecutive road losses in December games are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Wizards Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +2.5

The Utah Jazz are 0-6 SU in their last six road games yet they are favored on the road here against the Detroit Pistons.  They just lost by 26 at Milwaukee and by 23 at Cleveland and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days.  This is a terrible spot for the Jazz to say the least.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pistons, who have lost five of their last six games coming in but were competitive in all six.  They haven't lost any of their last nine games by more than 11 points and have played a brutal schedule too against Memphis (twice), Dallas, Miami, New Orleans, LA Lakers, Sacramento, Brooklyn and Charlotte.  This is actually a step down in class for them from what they have been facing.

Utah is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after trailing its previous game by 15 points or more at halftime.  The Jazz are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following two or more consecutive road losses.  Detroit is 40-20 ATS in its last 60 games following a home loss.  Utah is 14-36-3 ATS in its last 53 games following an ATS loss.  Detroit is 9-2-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pistons won 125-116 in Utah earlier this season to improve to 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Pistons Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Marquette/Providence UNDER 149.5

Both Marquette and Providence rank inside the Top 100 in adjusted defense.  The Golden Eagles are allowing 67.6 points per game on 42.6% shooting this season, while the Friars are allowing 67.2 points per game on 41.9% shooting.

The head-to-head history really jumps out and shows that this 149.5-point total is too high.  Indeed, Marquette and Providence have combined for 148 or fewer points in each of the last four meetings, and 148 or fewer points at the end of regulation in seven of their last eight meetings.  They have averaged just 138.6 combined points per game at the end of regulation in their last eight meetings.

Providence is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games following an upset win as an underdog.  We're seeing just 126.5 combined points per game in this spot.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Rockets OVER 226.5

Both the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets are dead nuts OVER teams and this is a very low total for a game involving these two teams.  The Spurs rank 5th in the NBA in pace this season while the Rockets rank 12th.  The Spurs rank dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency while the Rockets ranks 27th.

The Spurs and Rockets have combined for at least 227 points in each of their last five meetings and an average of 239.4 combined points per game in those five meetings with none going to OT.  Thats roughly 13 points more than this 226.5-point total, so we are getting a ton of value on the OVER tonight.  Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers -6.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are without four of their best players tonight in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.2 PPG, 5.8 APG), Josh Giddey (14.7 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 5.5 APG), Robinson-Earl (8.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG) and Bazley (5.9 PPG) tonight.  They stand no chance of being competitive with the Portland Trail Blazers as a result.

The Blazers are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now going 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Damian Lillard is back healthy and they are humming on offense scoring 116 or more points in six of those eight games.

The Thunder did pull off the upset as 11-point home dogs to the Grizzlies last time out as the Grizzlies took them lightly, and JA Morant was ejected in the first half.  That result is keeping this spread lower than it should be.  A lot of times teams can have one good performance in their first game without their stars, but then it progressively gets worse.  I don't expect the Blazers to take them lightly after seeing that Memphis result.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKC) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at halftime are 52.20 (72.2%) ATS since 1996.  The Blazers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games when their opponent scored 100 or more points in their previous game.  Portland is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 road games.  The Blazers are 7-0 ATS vs. teams that force 15 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Take the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Hornets/Nuggets OVER 235.5

The Charlotte Hornets were already a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 9th in the NBA in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency on the season.  And that's even without their best player in La'Melo Ball (21.6 PPG, 7.0 APG) for all but five games this season.  Well, Ball is back now and the Hornets will play at an even faster pace with him and be a much better offensive team while still being terrible on defense.

The Denver Nuggets are on OVER team because they are so good on offense, ranking 2nd in offensive efficiency.  Only the Boston Celtics have been better.  The Nuggets have really slipped defensively this season ranking 28th in defensive efficiency.  Denver's last seven games have all seen at least 225 combined points.

Charlotte is a perfect 9-0 OVER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season and we're seeing 242.8 combined points per game in this spot.  The OVER is 9-1 in Hornets last 10 road games following a home loss by 10 points or more.  The OVER is 9-0 in Hornets last nine road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons +8.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Brooklyn Nets.  They have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games overall but eight of their last nine wins have come by single-digits.  They have simply been fortunate in close games, and I think this one goes down to the wire against the Detroit Pistons, too.

It's time to 'buy low' on the Pistons.  They have lost four of their last five games against a very tough schedule with road losses to the Pelicans by 6 and the Grizzlies by 11 as well as home losses to the Lakers by 7 and Kings by 9.  They also went on the road and upset the Hornets.  They are now catching too many points at home today to the Nets.

Brooklyn is 14-30 ATS in its last 44 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Nets are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS win.  The Pistons are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Detroit is 8-2-2 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

15* Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Knicks/Pacers OVER 226.5

Any game involving the Indiana Pacers with a total of less than 230 I'm going to take my first look at the OVER.  They are dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in the NBA in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency.  

The Pacers just combined for 230 points with the Cavaliers and 244 points with the Warriors in their last two games.  In fact, they have combined for 230 or more points with their opponents in five of their last six games overall.

The New York Knicks are rolling on offense right now and playing a lot faster.  They have scored at least 112 points in five consecutive games going in.  They will stay hot against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA in the Pacers today.

The OVER is 35-15-1 in Pacers last 51 home games.  The OVER is 28-11 in Pacers last 39 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Celtics UNDER 223.5

I love this spot for an UNDER bet.  The Magic and Celtics will be playing for the 2nd game in 3 days.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and I think we get a defensive struggle here Sunday with this sleepy start time with a 3:10 EST tip this afternoon.

The Magic beat the Celtics 117-109 for 226 combined points on Friday.  That was even with Jayson Tatum scoring 31 points for the Celtics.  Well, Tatum won't play today due to personal reasons, and the Celtics will have a hard time scoring without him.  Plus, two key defenders in Robert Williams and Al Horford just returned for the Celtics, so they will rely on defense in this one.

Orlando is a very good defensive team with a ton of length.  The Magic have allowed 111 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall.  Holding the Celtics with Tatum to 109 points is no small feat, and I don't see Boston getting more than 109 in the rematch, either.  I expect Boston to defend Orlando much better than they did in that first meeting, too.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +10.5

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with five upset victories outright.  They only lost by 7 to the Bucks as 10-point dogs, beat the Clippers outright as 6.5-point dogs, beat the Raptors by 4 and 12 outright as 8 and 7-point dogs, beat the Hawks by 11 outright as 3-point dogs and beat the Celtics outright as 13.5-point dogs.

Yes, the Celtics will now be out for revenge today, but they shouldn't be 10.5-point favorites over the Magic.  They can get their revenge and still not cover this inflated number.  Plus, Jayson Tatum scored 31 points in that first meeting on Friday and they still lost by 8.  Well, now the Celtics won't have Tatum today as he'll be out for personal reasons.  There's no way the Celtics should be double-digit favorites over the Magic without Tatum and with how well the Magic are playing right now.

The Celtics are overvalued due to having the best record in the NBA and it has shown of late as they are 1-3 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost by 16 at Golden State, by 20 at the Clippers and by 8 at home to the Magic.  Their lone win was a miracle as they erased a 13-point deficit in the final four minutes to beat the Lakers by 4 in OT.  Bet the Magic Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Western Michigan/Iowa State UNDER 130

The Iowa State Cyclones are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 257th in adjusted tempo and 13th in adjusted defense this season.  They are holding opponents to just 56.9 points per game and 38.5% shooting, holding them to 17.9 points per game less than their season averages.  They are only scoring 70.7 points per game, too.

Western Michigan plays at an even slower pace than Iowa State, ranking 260th in adjusted tempo.  They are a terrible offensive team ranking 281st in adjusted offense.  They are averaging 3.5 points per game less than their opponents allow on the season.

The UNDER is 14-2 in Iowa State's last 16 games overall, including 9-1 this season.  The UNDER is 9-0 in Cyclones last nine games following an ATS win.  The UNDER is 15-4-2 in Cyclones last 21 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Broncos last four games overall.  This is early 1:00 EST start time which will have both teams half asleep as well, which favors the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Tennessee/Arizona ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -3.5

The Arizona Wildcats are 9-1 this season with wins over Cincinnati, San Diego State, Creighton and Indiana all on neutrals.  Their lone loss came on the road.  The Wildcats are 5-0 at home this season and winning by 27.4 points per game.

Now they host a Tennessee team that is also 9-1 but hasn't played a true road game yet.  I always like fading teams when they play their first true road game.  It will be a tremendous atmosphere and home-court advantage tonight for the Wildcats with a rowdy crowd with this 10:30 EST tip.  It will easily be the toughest atmosphere the Vols will have played in this season.

Plays on home teams (Arizona) - after covering as a double-digit favorite, in a game involving two teams that win more than 80% of their games on the season are 48-24 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  G James (8.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG) and F Aidoo (4.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG) are both questionable to play for the Vols tonight as well.  Roll with Arizona Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on SE Missouri State +24

This is a terrible spot for the Iowa Hawkeyes.  They have played their last three games against Duke, Iowa State and Wisconsin.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat SE Missouri State as they were those three teams, and they will need to be motivated to cover this big of a number Saturday.

Making matters worse for the Hawkeyes is that they will be without their best player in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG) and could be without Ahron Ulis (6.4 PPG), who is questionable.  They just want to get in and get out with a win here Saturday and won't be concerned with getting margin.

We've seen SE Missouri State hang tough against some very good teams this season.  They only lost by 7 at Missouri as 21.5-point dogs a few games back.  They upset South Florida outright as 11-point road dogs, upset Evansville outright as 2-point road dogs and only lost by 13 at Bradley.  They have done their best work in true road games.

The Redhawks are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  The Redhawks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet SE Missouri State Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -6.5

Nobody is playing better than the Memphis Grizzlies right now.  They are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall with all seven wins coming by 8 points or more.  That includes a 41-point win over Milwaukee, a 25-point win over Atlanta and a 21-point win over Oklahoma City, which is tonight's opponent.

The spot really favors the Grizzlies as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and are fully healthy with the exception of Desmond Bane, who has been out for a few weeks now and they haven't really missed him due to all their depth.  This is a terrible spot for the Thunder playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four days.

The Thunder come in on a four-game losing streak and are dealing with a ton of injuries right now.  Robinson-Earl (8.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG) remains out, and Bazley (5.9 PPG) and Dort (13.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG) are both questionable.  The Thunder lost 110-112 to the short-handed Timberwolves last night who were playing without Towns, Russell and Gobert.  

That game went down to the wire so their starters played big minutes, meaning they will be even more fatigued than normal in this 2nd of a back-to-back.  Oklahoma City is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games when playing in zero rest.  Memphis is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Rockets OVER 227

Damian Lillard is back healthy now to go with Simons and Grant and the Blazers have been a dead nuts OVER team since his return.  They are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall with combined scores of 241, 242, 245, 240 and 240 points.  They have scored at least 116 points in six of their last seven games overall.

The Blazers lost in a 110-130 blowout to the Mavericks last night and have now allowed at least 111 points in 13 of their last 14 games overall.  But the blowout loss allowed their starters to rest as Lillard played 24 minutes, Simons 23, Grant 20, Hart 21 and Nurkic 21.  They will still be fresh and able to get up and down with the Rockets, who like to push the pace.

The Rockets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They like to run and rank 27th in defensive efficiency.  And when these teams get together a shootout usually ensues.  The Blazers and Rockets have combined for at least 231 points in three of their last four meetings.

Portland is a perfect 7-0 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and we're seeing 235.8 combined points per game in this spot.  Portland beat Houston 125-111 as a 4-point favorite for 236 combined points in their first meeting this season.  The OVER is 19-7 in Rockets last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -5

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season at Memphis on Thursday.  They were coming off a 128-111 home win over the Warriors and I think they simply had a letdown after beating the defending champs.

But now the Bucks are back home where they are 13-3 SU & 11-5 ATS this season outscoring opponents by 9.0 points per game.  And they are expected to get star PG Jrue Holiday (19.1 PPG, 7.4 APG, 5.3 RPG) back from illness after sitting out the last two games.

The Utah Jazz are just 1-6 SU in their last seven road games with five losses by 5 points or more.  They are getting too much respect after two consecutive home wins over the Pelicans.  But now they are back on the road here and should be much more than 5-point road underdogs to the Bucks.  

It's time to 'buy low' on Milwaukee off a blowout loss and 'sell high' on Utah after two consecutive upset home wins.  The Bucks will come back motivated and will have 100% focus for this one, which isn't good news for the Jazz.  Roll with the Bucks Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Marshall -3

Marshall won nine consecutive games before finally losing 67-75 at UNC-Greensboro last time out.  I think they'll be refocused with Toledo coming to town this weekend.  Marshall is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 17.7 points per game.

Toledo has some really bad losses this season and they cannot be trusted.  They lost by 7 at George Mason, by 11 to ECU and by 12 to Missouri-KC.  They also just beat Canisius by 1 as 17-point home favorites last time out.  Toledo ranks just 228th in adjusted defense while Marshall ranks 98th.

Marshall is 6-0 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in a week this season.  The Thundering Herd are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Roll with Marshall Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Cornell +9.5

Cornell has been very impressive this season at 7-2 with their two losses coming by 2 at Boston College as 9.5-point dogs and by 2 at Miami as 14.5-point dogs.  They are once again catching too many points today against another ACC team in Syracuse today.

Syracuse has upset losses to Bryant and Colgate at home already this season and also lost to St. John's by 7 and Illinois by 29.  These teams have a common opponent in Monmouth, too.  Cornell won by 18 points on the road at Monmouth, while Syracuse only beat Monmouth by 15 at home.

Syracuse is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games following a home win.  Cornell is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games a an underdog.  The Big Red are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Orange are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Cornell Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Sam Houston State -3.5

Sam Houston State is 8-2 this season with its only losses coming to Nevada and Oklahoma State on the road.  They also beat Utah on the road by 10 and Oklahoma on the road, and those wins look really good right now especially after Utah handed Arizona their only loss this season.

Texas State is just 6-5 this season with some very ugly losses.  The most alarming was last time out when they lost 65-71 at home to Mary Hardin Baylor.  They also lost to Hawaii, Rice, UTSA and Washington State all by 5 points or more.

Sam Houston State has played the 31st-toughest schedule in the country while Texas State has played the 253rd-ranked schedule.  Texas State is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game.  Sam Houston ranks 34th in adjusted defense while Texas State ranks 203rd.  Take Sam Houston State Saturday.

20* Houston/Virginia ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Houston -2

The Houston Cougars are legitimately one of the top teams in the country this season.  They are 10-1 with their only loss coming to Alabama after blowing a double-digit lead.  They rank 29th in adjusted offense and 2nd in adjusted defense.

Virginia is getting too much respect from the books right now after an 8-0 start.  But the Cavaliers have been squeaking by of late beating Michigan by 2 as 4.5-point favorites, Florida State by 5 as 18-point favorites and James Madison by 5 as 12.5-point favorites in their last three games coming in.

Virginia's luck runs out today against the best team they have faced yet in Houston.  I think the Cavaliers will be rusty because they haven't played since December 6th with 10 days off in between games.  Virginia will be without Reece Beekman (27 MPG, 10.0 PPG, 4.6 APG) for the first time this season after he was injured against James Madison.

Houston crushed Virginia 67-47 at home last season.  Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following four or more consecutive wins.  Houston is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after a SU home win where they failed to cover.  The Cougars are a ridiculous 42-12-1 ATS in their last 55 games following an ATS loss.  The Cavaliers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Take Houston Saturday.

20* Indiana/Kansas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Kansas -5

The Kansas Jayhawks are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall two of the most impressive performances of any team this season.  They beat Seton Hall 91-65 as 10-point home favorites and beat Missouri 95-67 as only 3.5-point road favorites.

Now the Jayhawks are only 5-point home favorites over the Indiana Hoosiers in one of the best venues for college basketball at home.  Indiana lost by 14 to Arizona on a neutral and by 15 at Rutgers in two of their last three games, which doesn't bode well for them being able to hang with the Jayhawks today.

Kansas has played the 39th-toughest schedule in the country while Indiana has played the 170th.  Kansas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games after winning three of its last four games.  Plays against road teams (Indiana) - after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game against an opponent that is coming off three straight wins by 15 points or more are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Blazers/Mavericks OVER 222.5

Damian Lillard is back healthy now to go with Simons and Grant and the Blazers have been a dead nuts OVER team since his return.  They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with combined scores of 241, 242, 245 and 240 points.  They have scored at least 116 points in six consecutive games as well.

The Dallas Mavericks have been playing in a lot more high scoring games of late with Christian Wood in the lineup.  They have combined for 221 or more points in eight of their last 10 games overall and 229 or more points in seven of those.

The OVER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between the Mavericks and Blazers with 224 or more combined points in 11 of those 12 meetings.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 222.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Bulls UNDER 228.5

I love this spot for an UNDER bet.  The Knicks and Bulls just played on Wednesday with the Knicks winning 128-120 (OT) in a game that was tied 117-117 at the end of regulation.  The total was 226.5 for that game, and the books have made the mistake of adjusting it up to 228.5 for the rematch here two days later.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Both teams shot lights out in that first meeting and it won't happen again.  The Bulls shot 54.8% from the field, while the Knicks shot 49.5% from the field including a ridiculous 18-of-34 (52.9%) from 3-point range.  The Knicks are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league at 32.6% for the season, so it was clearly an aberration.

The UNDER is 6-1 in Knicks last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Knicks last 11 road games.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  The UNDER is 5-1-1 in Bulls last seven games following a loss.  The UNDER is 20-8-1 in Bulls last 29 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Warriors/76ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -6.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are at full strength in the health department right now with the exception of Tyrese Maxey.  They are playing their best basketball of the season going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with wins by 11 over the Lakers, by 18 over the Hornets and by 20 over the Kings.

Now the 76ers come in on two days' rest and highly motivated to face the defending champion Warriors.  But the Warriors have just been going through the motions all season, and they are going to regret that with the injuries that are starting to pile up for them.

Indeed, the Warriors will be without their top two scorers in Steph Curry (30.0 PPG, 6.8 APG, 6.6 RPG) and Andrew Wiggins (19.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG).  Both Klay Thompson (18.7 PPG) and Draymond Green (8.1 PPG, 6.7 APG, 6.0 RPG) are questionable to play tonight as well.  Either way, the Warriors stand no chance of being competitive without Curry and Wiggins.

The Warriors are 2-13 SU & 3-12 ATS on the road this season.  The 76ers are 10-5 SU & 11-4 ATS at home this season.  Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS in home games vs. good shooting teams that make 46% or better this season.  The 76ers are 8-0 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  Take the 76ers Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +13.5

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with four upset victories outright.  They only lost by 7 to the Bucks as 10-point dogs, beat the Clippers outright as 6.5-point dogs, beat the Raptors by 4 and 12 outright as 8 and 7-point dogs, and beat the Hawks by 11 outright as 3-point dogs.

This is a good spot for the Magic playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  This is a terrible spot for the Celtics returning home from a six-game road trip that concluded in Los Angeles.  I always like fading teams in their first game back home following a long road trip because there are so many distractions they have to deal with.  The Celtics haven't been home since December 2nd.

The Magic are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on two days' rest.  Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (Boston) - after failing to cover two of their last three ATS, when playing on two days' rest are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Magic Friday.

20* Pacers/Cavs NBA Friday No-Brainer on OVER 222.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency.  They have combined for 232 or more points in four of their last five games overall, including 269 with the Nets and 244 with the Warriors.

The Cleveland Cavaliers just got Donovan Mitchell back from injury.  They also got Kevin Love back.  They are a very good offensive team as long as Mitchell is on the floor.  They will have no problem getting up and down with the Pacers tonight in a shootout.

The last two meetings between the Pacers and Cavaliers went way OVER the total.  They combined for 251 points with a 222.5-point total and 233 points with a 216-point total.  The OVER is 6-1 in Pacers last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kings/Pistons OVER 238

The Sacramento Kings are an OVER team when De'Aaron Fox is healthy, which is the case right now.  They rank 6th in pace, 7th in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency on the season.  They are coming off a 124-123 win at Toronto for 247 combined points.

The Detroit Pistons are an OVER team of late.  After combining for 241 points at the end of regulation with the Lakers, they combined for 254 points with the Hornets at the end of regulation last time out.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 236, 264 and 266 points.  That 266-point effort came in their first meeting this season, so we have a lot of room to spare here with this 238-point total.

The OVER is 4-0 in Pistons last four home games.  The OVER is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings in Detroit.  Detroit is 16-4 OVER in its last 20 non-conference home games.  Sacramento is 15-5 OVER in its last 20 games vs. bad teams outscored by 6-plus PPG.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Hornets OVER 232.5

La'Melo Ball (20.3 PPG, 8.0 APG) just returned from injury last time out.  The Hornets lost 134-141 (OT) to the Pistons in a game that saw 254 combined points at the end of regulation.  They were already a dead nuts OVER team without him, and they are one of biggest OVER teams with him.

They rank 10th in pace this season despite only playing four games with Ball, and they will be one of the fastest-paced teams moving forward with him in the lineup.  The Hornets are 25th in defensive efficiency and will continue being one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.

The Atlanta Hawks are without their two best defenders right now in Clint Capela and Dejounte Murray.  They have allowed 220 or more points in four consecutive games but they have scored at least 116 points in three of their last four.  Their are fine offensively as long as Tray Young is in the lineup, and they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA without Capela and Murray.

The Hornets and Hawks have combined for exactly 235 points in each of their last two meetings.  The OVER is 4-0 in Hawks last four games overall.  The OVER is 7-1 in Hawks last eight road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The OVER is 21-6 in Hawks last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The OVER is 5-0 in Hornets last five games following an ATS loss.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans ML -118

I love the spot for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 100-121 loss at Utah on Tuesday.  Now they get to face the Jazz just two days later, and they will be the more motivated team, while the Jazz will relax after just blowing them out.

The Pelicans were 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS in their previous 14 games before losing to the Jazz.  It was an aberration as it was one of their worst shooting performances of the season.  They shot just 39.8% as a team, 4-of-27 (14.8%) from 3-point range and 22-of-33 (66.7%) from the FT line.  They will shoot better in all three areas in this rematch.

The Jazz were not playing well coming into that game.  They were 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in their previous 11 games overall.  They are still without Collin Sexton (14.3 PPG) and I don't expect them to play nearly as well as they did Tuesday night in the rematch.

Plays on road favorites (New Orleans) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, off an upset loss as a favorite are 60-26 (69.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Pelicans on the Money Line Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets +4.5

The Houston Rockets have quietly gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall despite being a 6.5-point dog or higher in five games.  They pulled the upset as 11.5-point road dogs to Phoenix and upset the Suns again as 6.5-point home dogs.  They upset the 76ers as 8-point home dogs and upset the Bucks as 10-point home dogs.  So it's not like they are beating bad teams, they are beating the best teams in the NBA has to offer.

Now the Rockets are undervalued once again as home underdogs to the Miami Heat, who are in an absolutely terrible spot tonight.  The Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 110-108 win in Oklahoma City last night.  It will also be the 7th game in 11 days for the Heat, which is about as tough a spot as you will find in the NBA.  Don't be surprised if they rest several players tonight given the spot.

Miami is 2-10 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five games playing on zero rest.  Miami is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Houston is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games.  Roll with the Rockets Thursday.

20* Timberwolves/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -6

The Los Angeles Clippers were the preseason favorites to win the NBA title.  But injuries have held them back thus far.  Now we are seeing a glimpse of how good this team can be with both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George back from injury for a few games now.

The Clippers just blasted the Celtics 113-93 at home on Wednesday.  The Celtics have the best record in the NBA, so that was no small feat.  And now I expect them to blast the short-handed Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.

The Timberwolves are coming off two consecutive road losses at Portland by 6 and at Portland by 21 in the rematch.  They will now be playing their 4th road game in 6 days.  They are without Karl-Anthony Towns (20.8 PPG, 8.2 RPG) and Jalen McDaniels (10.8 PPG) and could be without De'Angelo Russell (16.6 PPG, 6.3 APG), who is questionable with a knee injury.

Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Minnesota.  The Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Roll with the Clippers Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Spurs OVER 229

The Portland Trail Blazers have Damian Lillard back healthy now and are a dead nuts OVER team as a result.  They are 5-1-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with combined scores of 230 or more points in five of those seven games with 227 in another.  They have scored at least 116 points in five consecutive games.

The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team as it is.  They rank 5th in the NBA in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency.  They have scored 112, 115 and 118 points in their last three games overall.  They are allowing 120.1 points per game and 50.4% shooting on the season.

The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in San Antonio.  Portland is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 games following two or more consecutive home wins and we're seeing 236.2 combined points per game in this spot.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 210 or higher (Portland) - a good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), a hot shooting team making 47% or higher in four consecutive games are 32-6 (84.2%) over the last five seasons.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Orlando Magic +3

The Orlando Magic are quietly playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS against a brutal schedule with their lone loss coming by 7 as 10-point dogs to Milwaukee.  They upset the Clippers by 5 as 6.5-point dogs, upset the Raptors by 4 as 8-point dogs and upset the Raptors by 12 as 7-point dogs.

The Magic now come in on two days' rest and will upset the short-handed Atlanta Hawks tonight.  The Hawks are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone win coming by a single point over the Bulls in OT.  The Hawks are 5-9 SU & 5-9 ATS on the road this season.

The Hawks are without Dejounte Murray (20.8 PPG, 6.2 APG) and John Collins (12.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG) and could be without Trae Young (27.1 PPG, 9.6 APG), who is questionable tonight with a nagging back injury.  They shouldn't be favored without Murray and Collins alone, but they definitely shouldn't be favored with Young hampered.

Plays on home teams with a line of +3 to -3 (Orlando) - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Magic Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Hornets OVER 226.5

The Detroit Pistons are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have combined with their opponents for 232 or more points in four of their last seven games overall.  They rank 29th in defensive efficiency this season and play a Charlotte Hornets team that ranks 24th in defensive efficiency.

The Hornets are also a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have combined for 233 or more points with their opponents in five of their last seven games overall.  And they haven't had their best player in La'Melo Ball (19.3 PPG, 7.0 APG) for this stretch, and he has been upgraded to questionable and will likely make his return tonight.  Ball averaged 20.1 PPG and 7.6 APG last season and has only played in three games this season.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between Detroit and Charlotte with combined scores of 253, 260 and 251 points.  The OVER is 9-1 in Hornets last 10 games playing on two days' rest.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Ohio +13.5

The Ohio Bobcats are 5-4 this season with only a 1-point loss at Belmont as 6-point dogs and a 4-point loss in OT to Michigan as 14.5-point dogs.  They are 4-1 in their last five games overall, which includes an impressive upset road win at Youngstown State as 4.5-point dogs last time out.

Florida already has four losses this season.  They lost outright as 12-point home favorites to FAU, lost by 7 to Xavier on a neutral, lost by 29 to WVU on a neutral and lost by 21 to UConn at home.  I don't think they have any business being 13.5-point favorites over Ohio given those results.

Keep in mind this isn't a true home game for Florida as it is being played on a neutral in Tampa, so they won't have their normal home-court advantage.  The Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  Ohio is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a road win.  The Bobcats are 41-15 ATSin their last 56 games following two consecutive games as road underdogs.  Florida is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Ohio Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -1.5

Nobody is playing better than the New Orleans Pelicans right now, and Zion Williamson is showing his importance to this team.  They have kept winning despite being without Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum for stretches because of Williamson and their underrated role players.

The Pelicans are 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall with their two losses coming to two of the best teams in the NBA in Memphis and Boston.  They have won seven consecutive games with four of those coming by double-digits and will be highly motivated to extend that winning streak to eight games tonight.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 4th game in 9 days.

The Utah Jazz have hit the skids after a fast start to the season.  They are just 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Injuries have played a role in their struggles and they remain without Collin Sexton (14.3 PPG) tonight.  Utah ranks just 26th in defensive efficiency while New Orleans ranks 3rd, and that will be the difference in this game tonight.

Utah is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games following a road loss.  Plays on road favorites (New Orleans) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against an opponent that's off a road cover where they lost SU as an underdog are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* Memphis/Alabama ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Memphis +8

The Memphis Tigers always start slow and then get better as the season goes on.  That's likely due to many new faces every year with the elite talent Penny Hardaway recruits.  They started 2-2 this season but have since gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS with wins over Nebraska by 12, Ole Miss by 11 and their most impressive win being a 9-point victory over Auburn, handing the Tigers their first loss of the season.

I think this is a terrible spot for Alabama.  They are coming off a big comeback win at No. 1 ranked Houston, pulling off the upset as 8.5-point underdogs.  Now they return home and will be fat and happy following that victory.

Last year, Memphis beat Alabama 92-78 as 3.5-point home underdogs.  Now Memphis is catching 8 points on the road in the rematch this season.  This is simply too many points in a game that is likely going to come down to the final possession or two.

Alabama is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after playing a game as an underdog.  It is coming back to lose outright by 5.1 points per game in this spot.  Memphis is 41-19 ATS in its last 60 games following an upset win a an underdog.  The Tigers are 31-16 ATS in their last 47 games as road dogs of 6.5 to 12 points.  Memphis is 37-18-1 ATS in its last 56 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Crimson Tide are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Bet Memphis Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -3.5

The Milwaukee Bucks have a massive home-court advantage.  They are 12-3 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 8.5 points per game.  They will be highly motivated to beat the defending champion Warriors tonight, and you know it's going to be a sell out and an even bigger home-court advantage than normal for the Bucks tonight.

The Warriors have been dreadful on the road going 2-11 SU & 3-10 ATS while getting outscored by 8.0 points per game.  They are without second-leading scorer Andrew Wiggins (19.1 PPG) and I don't give them much of a chance to even be competitive with the Bucks tonight without him.

The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Bucks won by 19 and 39 points in their last two home meetings with the Warriors.  Milwaukee is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% or better.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Marshall -2

The Marshall Thundering Herd are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with all nine victories coming by 9 points or more.  They are laying too short of a number against UNC-Greensboro tonight.

UNC-Greensboro is just 4-6 SU & 2-7 ATS this season.  They are one of the worst offensive teams in the country, averaging 65.4 points per game on 39.4% shooting.  I don't see how they can keep up with Marshall, which averages 82.1 points per game on 47.3% shooting.  

And it's not like the Thundering Herd are poor defensively.  They allow 38.9% shooting and are holding opponents to 6.6 points per game less than their season averages.  Greensboro holds opponents to 6.5 points per game less than their season averages and 41.5% shooting.  These teams are similar defensively, but there's a big discrepancy on offense.

Greensboro is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games.  The Spartans are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Roll with Marshall Tuesday.

15* Celtics/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are as healthy as they have been all season with Paul George and Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup for a few games now.  The chemistry should get better with each passing game, and the Clippers should start playing like the team that was favored to win the NBA Finals coming into the season sooner rather than later.

Now they host a Boston Celtics team in a terrible spot.  The Celtics wanted revenge on the Warriors from losing to them in the NBA Finals and came up short Saturday, losing 107-123.  I think there will be a 'hangover' effect from that defeat.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

Plus, it's just time to 'sell high' on the Celtics, who have the best record in the NBA.  They were favored on the road against the Warriors, and now they're even bigger favorites on the road against the Clippers.  Plus, they will be without Al Horford tonight and were already without Robert Williams, so they are going to get killed on the boards with how small they have to go.

The Clippers are equipped better than anyone to guard Brown and Tatum with George, Leonard and Batum.  This is a great matchup for them as a result and I fully expect them to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Roll with the Clippers Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +8.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Oklahoma City Thunder off two consecutive road losses to Memphis and Cleveland.  They had won their previous three games with two of them coming on the road in upset fashion at Minnesota and at Atlanta.  Now they are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.

The Dallas Mavericks have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  In those 22 games, they only won three times by double-digits, so they aren't blowing teams out.  The Mavericks will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight as well.

The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Mavericks not once losing by double-digits.  In fact, they pulled the outright upset as double-digit dogs in each of their last two meetings with Dallas.

The Thunder are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 road games.  Dallas is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  Oklahoma City is 24-8 ATS in its last 32 road games following two or more consecutive road losses.  Dallas is 5-13 ATS as a favorite this season.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Pacers OVER 228

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, 26th in defensive efficiency and are scoring 115.9 points per game while allowing 116.7 points per game.  Any total of less than 230 for the Pacers is worth a look to the OVER.

The Miami Heat are as healthy as they have been all season and are potent on offense when that's the case.  They have some of the best shooters in the NBA.  But they have slipped defensively this season, allowing 110.3 points per game on 47.5% shooting.  The loss of PJ Tucker has really hurt them defensively.

Six of Indiana's last eight games have seen 231 or more combined points.  Indiana is 18-4 OVER in its last 22 games following an upset loss as a home favorite.  Miami is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 road games vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game.  The OVER is 35-15-1 in Pacers last 51 home games.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Bucks/Rockets OVER 226.5

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 10th in pace this season and 29th in defensive efficiency, but they have talent on offense and can score.  They face a Milwaukee Bucks team that is as healthy as they have been all season now and one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA when that's the case.

The recent head-to-head history between Milwaukee and Houston really stands out.  The Bucks and Rockets have combined for at least 228 points in each of their last seven meetings.  That makes for a 7-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 226.5-point total.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +3.5

The Chicago Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but it's pretty much a non-factor because they blew out the Mavericks 144-115 at home so they got to rest their starters in the 4th quarter.  Plus, the Bulls will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days, so they are still very fresh and ready to go.

The Atlanta Hawks are in a world of hurt right now in the injury department, so they should not be favored in this game.  The only reason they are favored is because the Bulls are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The Hawks are just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Hawks are without Dejounte Murray (20.8 PPG, 6.2 APG) and John Collins (12.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG) tonight and could be without De'Andre Hunter (14.9 PPG), who is questionable.  Roll with the Bulls Sunday.  

20* Wisconsin/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin +4.5

Iowa got away with being without their best player on Thursday in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG) in a 75-56 win over Iowa State in a game that closed Iowa -3.  Iowa State shot 3-of-22 (14%) from 3-point range while Iowa shot 12-of-23 (52%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen against Wisconsin.

Iowa's luck runs out today against a Wisconsin team that is 7-2 against the 27th-toughest schedule in the country.  The Badgers have wins over Maryland, Marquette, USC and Stanford.  Their two losses both came down to the wire in OT to Kansas by 1 and to Wake Forest by 3.  So they haven't lost by this margin yet this season.  And without Murray again, the Hawkeyes aren't going to get margin on Wisconsin.

Wisconsin is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog.  The Badgers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Wisconsin is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The road team is 9-4-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Take Wisconsin Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Magic UNDER 222.5

I love this spot for an UNDER bet.  The Toronto Raptors and Orlando Magic will be playing in a rematch from Friday's 113-109 home win by the Magic for 222 combined points.  Now they play again here just two days later, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.

The Magic aren't going to shoot 59.2% from the field again like they did in that first meeting, which was played at a snail's pace.  Both of these teams prefer to slow it down as they are both tied at 19th in pace this season.  

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 222, 229, 191 and 200 points.  They Raptors and Magic have combined for 222 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings.  The UNDER is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings in Orlando.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Maryland/Tennessee FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 135

Tennessee ranks 1st in the country in adjusted defense.  They don't play particularly fast ranking 169th in pace, either.  The Vols are holding opponents to 51.2 points per game on 32.7% shooting, holding opponents to 21.5 points per game less than their season averages.

Maryland ranks 240th in adjusted tempo and likes to play slow.  The Terrapins are 8-1 this season in large part due to ranking 32nd in adjusted defense.  They are holding opponents to 61.3 points per game on 39.5% shooting, holding opponents to 10.0 points per game less than their season averages.

Tennessee is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games coming off two consecutive home games.  The UNDER is 20-8 in Vols' last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Kevin Willard is 52-29 UNDER vs. poor shooting teams that make 42% or less as a head coach.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Youngstown State -4.5

Youngstown State is 7-3 this season with all three losses coming on the road.  They are 3-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 32.7 points per game.  I think they are laying too short of a number here to Ohio.

Ohio is 0-4 SU in true road games this season and losing by 8.2 points per game.  And it's not like they've faced a murder's row on the road with the losses coming to Detroit, Belmont, Marshall and Michigan.

Ohio is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Youngstown State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. good ball handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Youngstown State Sunday.

20* Celtics/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on Boston -2.5

The Boston Celtics are 17-2 SU in their last 19 games overall.  They have been making a statement this season that they are the best team in the NBA after losing in the NBA Finals last season.  And now they get their chance at revenge on the Golden State Warriors, who they lost to in the Finals.

The Celtics have had this game circled all offseason and won't waste this opportunity to get their revenge.  They'll be up against a banged up Warriors team that is playing without Andrew Wiggins (19.1 PPG) tonight.  That's a big loss because they needed him to guard either Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown.

Boston is a perfect 10-0 ATS after winning four of its last five games this season.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game.  Boston is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games overall.  The Celtics are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 road games.  Boston simply wants this one more.  Take the Celtics Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls -2

This is a terrible spot for the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  They are coming off a hard-fought 105-106 home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks last night on National TV.  They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat after that defeat, and they won't have much left in the tank playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here.

This is a great spot for the Chicago Bulls.  They come in on two days' rest and playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  They will run the Mavericks out of the building tonight at home.  The Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season and this is a great 'buy low' spot on them after failing to cover four consecutive games coming in.

Dallas is 0-7 ATS after winning four or five of its last six games this season.  The Mavericks are 2-10 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Chicago is 24-11 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Mavericks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  Dallas is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5

This is a terrible spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 95-106 home loss to the Sacramento Kings last night, who were without De'Aron Fox.  A big reason the Cavaliers struggled is because they are dealing with injuries of their own.

Indeed, Donovan Mitchell (29.0 PPG) missed that game and is questionable to return tonight.  They are also without Kevin Love (10.0 PPG, 7.1 RPG) right now, one of their top reserves off the bench.  Dean Wade (6.4 PPG) remains out as well.

The Thunder are fully healthy and playing well, going 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They come in on two days' rest and will clearly be the fresher team for this one.  So getting 6.5 points with them in this favorable spot is too much.

The Thunder are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on two days' rest.  Oklahoma City is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 road games.  Cleveland is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on zero rest.  The Cavaliers are 15-39-4 ATS in their last 58 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Thunder Saturday.

20* Arizona/Indiana FOX No-Brainer on Arizona PK

I think we are getting the Arizona Wildcats cheap at a PK today because they have failed to cover six of their last seven games overall.  This is a great time to 'buy low' on them as it's the first time all season they haven't been favored, and they have played a brutal schedule that has included Cincinnati, San Diego State, Creighton and Utah already.

Indiana has benefited from a much softer schedule with their best wins coming over Xavier and a banged-up UNC team.  They lost by 15 at Rutgers for their lone defeat, and they benefited from Nebraska being without one of their best players last game.  This is easily the toughest test of the season for Indiana.

This game is listed as a neutral, but no question the Wildcats will have the home-court advantage with more fans there with this game being played in Las Vegas.  Arizona has played the 85th-toughest schedule in the country while Indiana has played the 269th-toughest.  Jalen Hood-Schifino (8.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 4.1 APG) is questionable for the Hoosiers.  Take Arizona Saturday.

15* Kansas/Missouri ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -3

I've been looking for spots to fade this Missouri Tigers team because they are overvalued due to their 9-0 record.  They have benefited from playing the 360th-ranked schedule in the country.  Now they take on a Kansas team that has played the 71st-toughest schedule in the country.

I faded Missouri with success last game as they struggled to even get by SE Missouri State 96-89 as a 21.5-point favorite.  And now I'll fade them again here against easily the toughest opponent they have faced to date in Kansas.  The previous toughest was Wichita State, and they needed OT to beat them.

Kansas has wins over Duke, NC State, Wisconsin and Seton Hall (by 26) already this season.  Their lone loss came against a very good Tennessee team.  Kansas beat Missouri 102-65 at home last season.  The favorite is now 5-1-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* Memphis/Auburn ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Auburn -1

Bruce Pearl is doing a tremendous job at Auburn.  The Tigers are off to another great start this season at 8-0 SU.  I know it hasn't come against the most difficult schedule, but that's why were are getting them cheap here at basically a PK against the Memphis Tigers.

I trust Pearl more than Penny Hardaway, who just hasn't been able to get the most out of the talent on hand unlike Pearly.  Memphis already has two losses this season to Saint Louis and Seton Hall, and Auburn beat Saint Louis.  Seton Hall has lost by 26 to Kansas, by 16 to Iowa, by 13 to Oklahoma and lost outright to Siena, so that loss looks really poor now.

Auburn is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following seven or more consecutive wins.  Memphis is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 December games.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* Washington State/UNLV FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNLV -1.5

The UNLV Rebels are 9-0 this season and one of the most underrated teams in the country.  This game against Washington State is listed as a neutral site venue, but it will basically be a home game for the Rebels being played at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.  Fans will come out in droves to watch this team try and keep their perfect record alive today.

Washington State is just 4-4 this season with its four wins coming against Texas State, Eastern Washington, Detroit and Northern Kentucky where they were substantial favorites in all four games.  They even lost outright as favorites to Utah, Boise State and Prairie Vie A&M.  They also lost by 14 at Oregon with three of their four losses coming by double-digits.  This team is way overvalued this season.

The Cougars are 1-7 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Washington State is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games following an ATS win.  The Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  The Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Roll with UNLV Saturday.

15* SDSU/Saint Mary's ESPN+ ANNIHILATOR on San Diego State -1

The San Diego State Aztecs have a tremendous fan base and will have the home-court advantage despite this being played on a neutral in Phoenix.  Fans are excited about this team, and for good reason as the Aztecs are 7-2 this season with their two losses coming to two of the best teams in the country in Arizona and Arkansas.

The Aztecs also have wins over BYU, Stanford and Ohio State and have played the 21st-toughest schedule in the country.  St. Mary's is 7-3 this season against the 99th-ranked schedule.  They have upset losses to Washington and New Mexico already this season.  Their best wins are over Missouri State, Vanderbilt and North Texas.

Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or PK (San Diego State) - off a SU home win but ATS loss, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 73-36 (67%) ATS since 1997.  The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take San Diego State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Purdue/Nebraska UNDER 138

Purdue ranks 265th in adjusted tempo and 29th in adjusted defense.  Nebraska ranks 266th in adjusted tempo and 73rd in adjusted defense.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, and Nebraska's improvement defensively this season is not being factored into these totals enough.

Purdue is holding opponents to 11.5 points per game less than their season averages.  Nebraska is holding opponents to 5.9 points per game less than their season averages.  They just held Creighton to 53 points in an upset victory two games back.

Guard Mason Gillis (5.7 PPG, 44.4% 3-pointers) is questionable for Purdue while G Sam Griesel (11.3 PPG, 35.7% 3-pointers) is questionable for Nebraska today after sitting out at Indiana.  The UNDER is 15-7 in Boilermakers last 22 games overall.  The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Cornhuskers last 11 games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Bucks/Mavericks ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Milwaukee PK

The Milwaukee Bucks are back to full strength for the first time all season.  They have gone 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall and I think we are getting them at a great value as a PK against the Dallas Mavericks tonight.

The Mavericks are starting to get some respect after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  But keep in mind they were 2-14-1 ATS in their previous 17 games.  This teams isn't very good, they aren't defending like they did last year, and they rely too much on Luka Doncic.  The Bucks have answers for him on defense that most teams don't with their length.

Dallas is 0-7 ATS following a loss by 6 points or less this season.  The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after winning four or five of their last six games.  Dallas is 0-6 ATS in its last six games playing on zero rest.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing Milwaukee tonight.  Take the Bucks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +10.5

The Detroit Pistons have quietly gone 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  I love the spot for them tonight because one of their non-covers came on December 4th just five days ago against the Memphis Grizzlies in a 10-point home loss as 6.5-point dogs.

Now the Pistons will be out for revenge from that defeat and are catching 10.5 points on the road in the rematch.  That's too big of an adjustment for home-court advantage, and too much considering the revenge factor as the Pistons will want this one more than the Grizzlies.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Grizzlies, who are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Now they are double-digit favorites for the first time in their last 16 games.  You're paying a tax to back the Grizzlies at this point.

Detroit is 9-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Pistons are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Detroit is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 road games.  The Pistons have only lost one of their last 15 games by more than 10 points, making for a 14-1 system backing them pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Roll with the Pistons Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kings/Cavaliers OVER 222.5

This is a very low total for a game involving the Sacramento Kings.  The Kings rank 6th in the NBA in pace, 5th in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency.  They are a dead nuts OVER team with the way they play.  15 of their last 16 games have seen at least 219 combined points.  Sacramento games are averaging 235.3 combined points per game this season.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are one of the most efficiency offensive teams in the NBA as they rank 9th in offensive efficiency.  They will get whatever they want against the Kings, and they won't hesitate to get in a track meet with them, either.

These teams just met on November 9th a month ago with the Kings winning 127-120 for 247 combined points.  That's 24.5 points more than this posted total of 222.5, so there's clearly value with the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Spurs OVER 233.5

Both the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs are dead nuts OVER teams.  The Spurs rank 6th in pace while the Rockets rank 13th.  The Spurs rank dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency while the Rockets rank 28th.

The Spurs have lost 11 consecutive games and have allowed 117 or more points in 12 consecutive games.  The Rockets have allowed 120 or more points in seven of their last eight games overall.  I think both teams get to 117-plus in this one, which is all we need to cash this OVER 233.5 ticket.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between San Antonio and Houston with combined scores of 243, 237, 238 and 252 points with none of those games going to overtime.  Enough said.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Iowa State/Iowa FS1 No-Brainer on Iowa State +5.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are legit.  They are 7-1 this season with their lone loss coming to Connecticut, which may be the best team in the country at 10-0.  They have upset wins over UNC and Villanova and also handed St. John's their only loss of the season, 71-60.

The Cyclones beat the Hawkeyes 73-53 at home last season.  Iowa isn't as good as they were last season, and they could be without their best player in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG).  He was seen in a walking boot on Wednesday after suffering an injury early against Duke, but playing through it in a 62-74 loss on Tuesday.  Now the Hawkeyes are in a terrible spot playing their 2nd game in 3 days after having to travel back from Madison Square Garden where they played Duke in the Jimmy V Classic.  

Murray was clearly hobbled as he went 3-for-9 for 8 points against the Blue Devils and wasn't nearly as aggressive as he usually is.  With Murray at anything less than 100%, the Hawkeyes should not be 5.5-point home favorites over the Cyclones, let alone favored at all.  Iowa has been exposed when stepping up in class losing by 12 to Duke and by 13 to TCU against their two best opponents thus far.

Iowa State has had the last three days off and will the fresher, more prepared team.  Their defense travels as they rank 13th in the country in defensive efficiency.  They are holding opponents to 37.3% shooting overall and 26.3% from 3-point range while allowing only 56.7 points per game.  They are holding opponents to 17.5 points per game less than their season averages.

Iowa State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after failing to cover two of its last three games.  The underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Iowa State Thursday.

15* UConn/Florida ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on UConn -4.5

The UConn Huskies are legitimately one of the top teams in the country.  They are 9-0 SU & 8-0-1 ATS this season with all nine wins coming by double-digits.  That includes wins over Oregon by 24, Alabama by 15 and Iowa State by 18 on neutrals.

The Huskies rank 8th in adjusted offense and 10th in adjusted defense.  They are +27.9 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average.  Florida is only +13.8 points per game based on the same criteria, meaning UConn is 14 points better.  Yet they are only 4.5-point road favorites tonight, which is a discount.

Florida already has three losses this season and two of them were very concerning.  They lost outright as a 12-point home favorite to Florida Atlantic and were crushed by 29 by West Virginia on a neutral.  They also lost to Xavier by 7 on a neutral.  Their six wins have all come against overmatched competition with five of the wins coming as double-digits favorites.  When they have stepped up in class they have lost, and now they face their toughest opponent to date.

The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Gators are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Connecticut Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the past two seasons.  They didn't get the wins to show for it last season, but they continually covered inflated numbers.  Now they are starting to get some wins to show for their efforts.

Indeed, the Thunder are 11-13 SU but 15-9 ATS this season and only getting outscored by 0.7 points per game.  They should not be catching 7.5 points to the Memphis Grizzlies, who are only outscoring opponents by 1.5 points per game on the season.  The Grizzlies are still without one of their best players in Desmond Bane, too, while the Thunder are almost fully healthy.

The Thunder are 41-17-3 ATS in their last 61 games following an ATS win.  Oklahoma City is 36-15 ATS in its last 51 road games.  The Thunder are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with upset road wins at Minnesota and Atlanta and only a 4-point loss at New Orleans.  Take the Thunder Wednesday.