20* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Pacers OVER 241

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 14-1 OVER in their 15 games this season.  They are scoring 128.8 points per game and allowing 125.5 points per game.  They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating.

The Blazers are not an over team, but the Pacers force teams to play at their pace, especially at home.  Plus the Blazers just got both Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson back from injury and were missing those two key guards for a big chunk of this season.  They now have the guards to get up and down with the Pacers.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oakland +15.5

What more does Oakland have to do to get some respect from the books?  Oakland is 3-3 SU & 6-0 ATS this season against a brutal schedule being listed as underdogs in all six games.  They upset Loyola-Marymount 74-69 as 6-point dogs, upset Marshall 78-71 as 2.5-point dogs and crushed Bowling Green 81-62 as 2.5-point favorites.

But more impressive than the wins are actually the three losses.  Oakland only lost 79-73 at Ohio State as 19.5-point underdogs, lost 53-64 as 24-point dogs at Illinois and lost 85-77 as 9-point dogs on a neutral to Drake.  If they can hang with those three teams, they can certainly hang with Xavier.

Xavier already has two losses this season to Purdue by 12 and to Washington by 3.  Three of the four wins were against bottom feeders in Robert Morris (by 4), Jacksonville and Bryant.  And now Xavier has a massive game with No. 6 ranked Houston on deck and could easily be looking ahead to that game and overlooking Oakland.  Bet Oakland Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Grizzlies UNDER 218.5

Both the Minnesota Timberwolves and Memphis Grizzlies rank in the bottom half of the league in pace.  The Grizzlies rank 28th in offensive rating while the Timberwolves rank 3rd in defensive rating.  The Grizzlies always get after it defensively, but with all their injuries right now points have been very hard to come by for them.

The Grizzlies were held to 91 points by the Rockets and 89 points by the Suns in their last two games.  I think the Timberwolves will hold them below 100 today, which will aid us in cashing this UNDER 218.5 ticket.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last five meetings with 220 or fewer combined points in five of those six, and 217 or fewer in three of the last four.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5

The Memphis Grizzlies rank 28th in offensive rating while the Minnesota Timberwolves rank 3rd in defensive rating.  With all the injuries the Grizzlies are dealing with right now, points have been very hard to come by for them.  The Grizzlies were held to 100 points by the Celtics, 91 points by the Rockets and 89 points by the Suns in their last three games to fall to 3-12 SU & 5-10 ATS this season.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are 11-4 SU & 8-5-2 ATS this season and have been one of the more undervalued teams in the NBA.  But they are coming off a bad home loss to the Kings, which will have them refocused and not taking the Grizzlies lightly today.

Memphis is 8-25 ATS in its last 33 games as an underdog.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +13

Giannis, Brook Lopez and Damian Lillard combined for 101 points last game and the Bucks still were life and death with one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Washington Wizards in a 131-128 win as 13.5-point home favorites.  They lost Kris Middleton to an Achilles injury in that game and he won't play today.  They will be life and death with the Blazers again today because they just don't have much help outside of those Big 3.

The Blazers are coming off a 121-105 upset win over the Jazz as 3-point home underdogs.  They are getting healthier and playing better.  Now they are rested and ready to go after having the last three days off.  I expect the Blazers to give a big effort today in this sleepy afternoon game for the Bucks, who won't have their usual home-court advantage due to this early start time.

Plays against favorites (Milwaukee) - after two straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more against an opponent that scored 120 points or more last game are 52-21 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Monmouth +6

Monmouth has been undervalued this season at 4-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS and the Hawks continue to be undervalued here as 6-point underdogs to the Penn Quakers.  Monmouth won outright as a 14.5-point dog at West Virginia earlier this season.

These teams have two common opponents the last two days, and it's easy to see Monmouth is the better team when looking at this results.  Monmouth beat Belmont 93-84 and beat Lafayette 63-53.  Penn only beat Lafayette 74-72 and lost outright to Belmont 84-79.

But the kicker here is that Penn went to OT against Belmont yesterday and will be the more tired team as a result.  Their three best players played 43, 36 and 35 minutes in that OT loss and won't have much left in the tank for Monmouth, which was able to rest its starters late yesterday due to the blowout nature of their game against Lafayette.  Nobody played more than 29 minutes for them yesterday.

Monmouth is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after allowing 60 points or less.  Penn is 15-30 ATS in its last 45 home games after a loss by 6 points or less.  Plays on road teams (Monmouth) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in non-conference games between two teams from mid-major conferences are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Monmouth Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Santa Clara +7.5

Santa Clara is absolutely legit this season.  The Broncos are off to a 6-0 start this season with two upset wins over Pac-12 teams.  They won 89-77 at Stanford as 7.5-point dogs and upset Oregon 88-82 as 5.5-point dogs on a neutral yesterday.  I fully expect them to give Ohio State a run for their money tonight.

Ohio State has been very disappointing thus far.  The Buckeyes are 4-1 SU but 1-3-1 ATS this season.  They only beat Oakland by 6 as 19.5-point home favorites, lost to Texas A&M by 7 as 1.5-point home favorites, pushed in a 24-point win over Merrimack as 24-point favorites and failed to cover in a 17-point win over Western Michigan as 21.5-point home favorites.  That's why their upset win over Alabama as 6.5-point dogs yesterday came out of nowhere.  But now the Buckeyes are getting too much respect for that win, and this is now a letdown spot for them.  Bet Santa Clara Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Illinois-Chicago -1

Illinois-Chicago has been very impressive this season.  The Flames are 4-1 SU & 4-0 ATS this season.  They only lost by 11 at Cincinnati as 15-point dogs, upset Loyola-Chicago 72-67 as 11.5-point road dogs and crushed Middle Tennessee 70-40 as 3.5-point dogs yesterday.  They will still be fresh for this game today which gives them a big advantage over George Washington.

The Revolutionaries will not be fresh for this one.  They just went to double-OT to beat Ohio 99-94 yesterday.  Three starters played at least 40 minutes for George Washington yesterday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Flames tonight.  Bet Illinois-Chicago Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets -3.5

I love the spot for the Brooklyn Nets tonight.  They will be highly motivated for a victory coming off three consecutive losses.  They are also motivated because one of those losses came 122-115 at Miami on November 14th.

The Nets also have a big rest advantage over the Heat tonight.  The Nets come in on two days' rest and will be playing just their 3rd game in 10 days.  Meanwhile, the Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 98-100 loss at New York last night.  This will also be the 9th game in 15 days for the Heat, which is about as tough as it gets in the NBA.  Eight of those nine games were on the road so there has been a ton of travel involved.

Jimmy Butler played 36 minutes, Bam Adebaoy 34, Josh Richardson 34 and Kyle Lowry 33 last night.  The Heat are already short-handed without Tyler Herro and likely without Duncan Robinson again tonight.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see them sit Butler and/or Adebayo tonight given the tough rest spot.

Brooklyn is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games when revenging a road loss.  Miami is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

20* Spurs/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5

The Golden State Warriors are an OVER team when Draymond Green is out of the lineup.  They miss his defense.  They have gone 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall without Green and tonight will be the 5th game of his 5-game suspension.  They have gone for 237, 253, 237 and 238 combined points in their last four games.

The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy.  They are at least respectable on offense, but they are terrible on defense either way.  The Spurs rank 4th in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency.

The last two meetings between the Spurs and Warriors have gone OVER the total with 245 and 257 combined points.  Plays on the OVER on home teams where the total is 200 or higher (Golden State) - after being beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games, a marginal losing team (40-49%) playing a losing team are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston Rockets +3

The Houston Rockets are the most underrated team in the NBA right now.  They are 7-3 SU & a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The three losses all went to the wire and were all on the road losing by 6 at the Clippers, by 1 at the Lakers and by 5 at the Warriors.  They are a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.

The Rockets are back home where they just crushed Memphis by 20.  They will be highly motivated to beat the defending champion Nuggets tonight.  The Nuggets just aren't the same without Jamal Murray and have struggled without him in recent seasons.  The Nuggets are 3-4 SU but 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall without Murray with the three wins all coming by 4 points or fewer.

Denver is 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game this season.  Houston is 10-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game this season.  I fully expect Houston to win this game outright.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Pacers OVER 247.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 13-1 OVER in their 14 games this season.  They are scoring 128.3 points per game and allowing 126.4 points per game.  They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency.

The Pistons don't mind getting up and down either as they rank 11th in pace.  They play little defense ranking 21st in defensive efficiency.  This one has the makings of a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Heat/Knicks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York -5.5

I love the spot for the New York Knicks tonight.  They are rested and ready to go after having the last three days off following a road loss at Minnesota which was their 5th consecutive road game.  They needed the rest, and they will far back here on Black Friday with a blowout win over the Miami Heat.

The Heat are getting a lot of respect now after winning nine of their last 10 against a very soft schedule.  They are coming off a blowout win at Cleveland, but the Cavaliers were on the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the 76ers in OT on the road the night before.

The Heat have two key starters questionable to play tonight in Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson and may be short-handed.  They already lack depth as it is without Tyler Herro.  Meanwhile, the Knicks are fully healthy.

New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 100 points or less last game.  Miami is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 105 points or less in two consecutive games.  Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings with four of those five wins coming by 6 points or more.  Bet the Knicks Friday.

20* Alabama/Ohio State Emerald Coast Classic No-Brainer on Alabama -6

Alabama is absolutely loaded this season.  The Crimson Tide are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while scoring at least 98 points in every game thus far.  They beat Morehead State 105-73 as 22-point favorites, topped a very good Indiana State team 102-80 as 18-point home favorites,crushed South Alabama 102-46 as 20.5-point favorites and covered in a 98-67 win over Mercer as 30.5-point favorites.  They have covered their first four spreads by a combined 50 points and remain undervalued here.

Ohio State has been very disappointing thus far and the results lead me to believe they cannot hang with a team the caliber of Alabama.  The Buckeyes are 3-1 SU but 0-3-1 ATS this season.  They only beat Oakland by 6 as 19.5-point home favorites, lost to Texas A&M by 7 as 1.5-point home favorites, pushed in a 24-point win over Merrimack as 24-point favorites and failed to cover in a 17-point win over Western Michigan as 21.5-point home favorites.

Ohio State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite.  Alabama is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 November games.  The Crimson Tide are 23-13 ATS in their last 36 games as favorites.  Alabama is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. good ball-handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Nate Oats is 12-2 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 to 12 points as the coach of the Crimson Tide.  Bet Alabama Friday.

15* Texas Tech/Michigan ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -2

The Michigan Wolverines have impressed me this season.  They have opened 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS with wins over St. John's on the road and Stanford on a neutral yesterday.  They also took a very good Memphis team to the wire in a 4-point loss prior to beating Stanford.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are clearly down a couple notches this season.  They are 4-1 SU but 1-4 ATS with some concerning results.  They only beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi by 9 as 24.5-point home favorites.  They lost by 16 to Villanova as 3.5-point dogs.  They only beat Northern Iowa by 2 as 7-point favorites yesterday.  Michigan needs to be favored by more against this squad.

Michigan is 55-33 ATS in its last 88 games as a neutral court favorite or PK.  Texas Tech is 46-70 ATS in its last 116 neutral court games.  The Red Raiders are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. good rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 4-plus boards per game.  Bet Michigan Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Phoenix Suns -7.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are an absolute mess right now with all their injuries.  They are 3-11 SU & 5-9 ATS this season.  They are without Morant, Smart, Tillman, Kennard, Adams, Clarke, LaRavia and could be without Bane tonight.

The Phoenix Suns are getting healthier and forming some chemistry right now.  They are 5-0 in their last five games overall, and I expect them to handle the short-handed Grizzlies tonight.

Memphis is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 games as an underdog.  Bet the Suns Friday.

15* Seton Hall/USC FS1 ANNIHILATOR on USC -4

The USC Trojans have one of the best backcourt tandems in the country in Boogie Ellis and Isaiah Collier.  Ellis is averaging 21.0 points per game while Collier is averaging 21.0 points per game as well.

After beating Kansas State 82-69 as 3-point favorites and then covering against CS-Bakersfield, the Trojans ran into some injuries.  Ellis didn't play in their upset loss to UC-Irvine, and Kobe Johnson (15.0 PPG) has missed two games as well.  But now both guys are healthy and expected to play in this tournament.  There's also a chance the Trojans get the debut of Bronny James, Lebron's son, for this tournament though I'm not expecting it.  They don't need him to beat Seton Hall.

While USC has tested themselves already against Kansas State and UC-Irvine, Seton Hall is not prepared for this tournament at all.  The Pirates have played the 330th-ranked schedule out of 362 teams.  So there's not much you can gather from their 4-0 start against St. Peter's, Farleigh Dickinson, Albany and Wagner.  This is a massive step up in class for them, and they will fail.

USC is 14-3 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game.  Andy Enfield is 13-4 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or PK as the coach of USC.  Bet USC Thursday.

20* Michigan State/Arizona FOX No-Brainer on Arizona -5

The Arizona Wildcats are absolutely loaded this season.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS despite being favored by 25 points or more four times, they covered all four.  They also upset Duke 78-73 as 5-point road underdogs, handing Duke their first loss at Cameron Indoor since current head coach Jon Scheyer took over for Coach K.

That gives these teams a common opponent as Michigan State lost 74-65 as 4-point underdogs on a neutral court to Duke.  I think that's a telling sign of how this game is going to go for the Spartans.  If they couldn't have with Duke on a neutral, they're certainly not going to be able to hang with Arizona.

Michigan State was also upset 79-76 as 16.5-point home favorites by James Madison earlier this season.  This team has been grossly overvalued since opening as a Top 5 team.  They don't have shooting as they are hitting just 26.3% from 3-point range this season.  Arizona shoots the 3 at a 41.5% clip to compare.

Plays against underdogs (Michigan State) - off a blowout win by 30 points or more against an opponent that has scored 75 points or more in five consecutive games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Arizona Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Bradley -4

The Bradley Braves are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season against a tough schedule.  They went on the road and beat UAB 73-71 as 4.5-point dogs, beat Utah State 72-66 as 5.5-point home favorites and topped Tarleton State 86-63 as 10-point home favorites.  They also beat Tulane 80-77 as 1-point favorites and controlled the game throughout as it only became close late.

UTEP is getting too much respect for its 5-0 start against a much softer schedule.  The five wins came against McMurray, U of Oklahoma Science and Arts, UC-Santa Barbara, Austin Pey and Cal.  Those last two wins against AP and Cal went to the wire.  This will be by far their toughest test of the season to date, while Bradley has already faced three teams that are better than UTEP and beat them all.

Bradley is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games as a favorite.  The Braves are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring 80 points or more last game.  The Braves are the class of the MVC right alongside Indiana State and Drake.  Bet Bradley Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -4.5

The Houston Rockets are one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA right now.  They are 6-3 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only losses all coming on the road to three of the best teams in the NBA in the Clippers by 6, the Lakers by 1 and the Warriors by 5.

Now the Rockets are back home where they are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.  They host one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Memphis Grizzlies, who are 3-10 SU & 5-8 ATS this season.  The Grizzlies have the worst injury situation in the entire NBA which is the biggest reason for their struggles.

Memphis is 1-18 ATS in its last 19 games as a road underdog of 6 points or less.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Pacers OVER 237.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 12-1 OVER in their 13 games this season scoring 128.1 points per game and allowing 125.9 points per game.  They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 29th in defensive efficiency.  Oddsmakers can't set their totals high enough.

The Toronto Raptors are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 240 points with Milwaukee, 255 points with Detroit and 233 points with Orlando.  They will be forced to play up-tempo with the Pacers controlling the pace playing at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Bucks/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 235

Two of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA square off tonight.  The Bucks rank 5th in offensive rating while the Celtics rank 6th.  The Bucks also rank 6th in pace but are a poor defensive team ranking 23rd in that category.

Shootouts have been the norm between the Bucks and Celtics in recent meetings and both are even more OVER teams this season.  The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 239, 256 and 257 combined points in those three meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Hofstra -5.5

Hofstra is absolutely loaded this season and it's showing up in this tournament.  They beat Buffalo 102-68 as 9.5-point favorites and Wright State 85-76 as 2.5-point favorites the past two days.  They have one of the best guard tandems in the country in Thomas (22.0 PPG) and Dubar (19.6 PPG).  These guards will lead them to another blowout victory over High Point today.

High Point has had to work much harder for its two victories the past two days beating a rebuilding Iona team 82-68 and then topping Illinois State 74-72 yesterday.  This is a big step up in class for them.  Keep in mind this team lost to Wofford and Queens prior to this tournament.

Hofstra is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games as a favorite.  Hofstra is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games vs. teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Hofstra Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana State -5.5

Indiana State is absolutely loaded this season.  The Sycamores are 3-1 SU & 2-1 ATS with their lone loss coming on the road at Alabama, which looks like it might be the best team in the country.  They beat IUPUI 96-57 as 17.5-point favorites and then Rice 103-88 as 6.5-point favorites yesterday.

Indiana State jumped out to a 55-34 halftime lead on Rice yesterday and was able to coast in the 2nd half to save up for Pepperdine today.  No player on Indiana State played more than 29 minutes yesterday, so they are going to be very fresh for Pepperdine.

The Waves are coming off two consecutive blowout losses to UNLV 82-68 as 2.5-point dogs and then UC-Irvine 76-60 as 5.5-point dogs yesterday.  Indiana State is better than both of those teams and the class of the MVC right alongside Bradley and Drake.  I expect another blowout victory in the Sycamores' favor today.

Indiana State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following two consecutive games where they made 10 or more 3-pointers.  Pepperdine is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a loss by 10 points or more.  The Waves are 0-7 ATS in thier last seven road games after scoring 60 points or less.  Pepperdine is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games vs. good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game.  Bet Indiana State Wednesday.

15* Tennessee/Kansas ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 140.5

Tennessee is a dead nuts UNDER team dating back to last season.  The Volunteers rank 1st in the entire country in defensive efficiency this season after ranking 1st last season as well.  Nothing comes easy against them, and they play at a slow tempo.

Kansas had nothing come easy yesterday in a 73-59 loss to Marquette.  The Jayhawks look like one of the more overrated teams in the country, especially from an offensive standpoint.  But the Jayhawks rank 6th in the country in defensive efficiency currently and get after it on that end.

Both teams lost yesterday, so both will be playing with extra intensity on the defensive end to try and get a win.  Plus, this is an early 2:30 EST start time and will be a sleepy early afternoon game for two teams not used to playing this early.

Tennessee is 15-2 UNDER in its last 17 games as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less or PK.  Kansas is 75-47 UNDER in its last 122 games with a line of +3 to -3.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Jazz/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +8

The Utah Jazz are playing well going 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their two losses came to the Suns by 3 points apiece with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant both healthy.  Now they will give LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers are run for their money tonight.

The Lakers are getting too much respect now after winning five of their last six games coming in.  But three of the five were decided by 6 points or less, and it has mostly come against a very soft schedule.  They lost by 15 at home to the Kings for their lone loss.  Their only wins by margin came against arguably the two worst teams in the NBA in the Grizzlies and Blazers, and they also only beat the Blazers by 6.  They beat the Rockets by 1 last time out.

The Jazz should be the fresher team here too playing just their 3rd game in 7 days, while the Lakers will be playing their 5th game in 8 days.  The Jazz are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games as underdogs.  Utah is 32-13 ATS in its last 45 games vs. a team with a winning record.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Lakers) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, winning between 51-60% of their games on the season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Jazz Tuesday.

15* Tennessee/Purdue ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 135

Tennessee is a dead nuts UNDER team dating back to last season.  They are at it again this season.  They rank 257th in adjusted tempo, 348th in average length of opponents possession and 1st in the entire country in defensive efficiency.  They make their opponents work for every shot they get.

Purdue ranks 189th in adjusted tempo and 5th in defensive efficiency.  So these are currently two of the Top 5 defensive teams in the country.  The end result should be points being very hard to come by for both teams.

Tennessee suffocated Syracuse in a 73-56 victory that saw 129 combined points with a 145.5-point total yesterday to go well UNDER the total.  Purdue topped Gonzaga 73-63 for just 136 combined points with a total of 153.5.  These teams both went UNDER their totals by a combined 34 points yesterday.

Tennessee is 15-2 UNDER in its last 17 games as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less.  The Volunteers are 18-5 UNDER in their last 23 games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Hawks OVER 250

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 11-1 OVER in their 12 games this season scoring 125.7 points per game and allowing 123.7 points per game.  They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency.  Oddsmakers can't set their totals high enought.

Now the Pacers play another dead nuts OVER team in the Atlanta Hawks.  The Hawks rank 3rd in pace, 6th in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency.  The OVER is 5-1 in Hawks last six games overall.

The OVER is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings between the Pacers and Hawks.  They combined for 273 points in their most recent meeting and had no problem topping the 249.5-point total.  They won't have a problem topping this 250-point total, either.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Bradley ML -120

The Bradley Braves are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season against a tough schedule.  They went on the road and beat UAB 73-71 as 4.5-point dogs, beat Utah State 72-66 as 5.5-point home favorites and topped Tarleton State 86-63 as 10-point home favorites.  UAB and Utah State are two of the better mid-major programs in the country, so they have been battle-tested heading into this SoCal Challenge Tournament.

Tulane is 3-0 SU but 1-2 ATS and has faced an extremely weak schedule.  The Green Wave beat Nicholls State 91-81 as 13-point favorites, Northwestern State 88-71 as 18.5-point favorites before topping Sacramento State 92-57.  This will be a shock to the system for the Green Wave having to go on the road for the first time this season and face a real opponent in Bradley.

Bradley is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a game where they made 60% of their shots or better.  Tulane is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after playing three consecutive games as a favorite.  Bet Bradley on the Money Line Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat ML -120

The Miami Heat will be out for revenge from a 102-97 loss at Chicago on Saturday just two days ago.  They led 22-1 in the first quarter and couldn't hang on as they got complacent and the Bulls got hot.  They won't make the same mistake again here in the rematch.

The Heat are 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall while the Bulls are 1-3 SU in their last four games.  Plays on road favorites (Miami) - revenging a same-season loss while also off an upset loss as a favorite are 57-25 (69.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  I love the spot for Miami tonight.  Bet the Heat on the Money Line Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -9

The Milwaukee Bucks are starting to form chemistry now with Damian Lillard in the fold and they are playing up to their potential.  The Bucks have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone ATS loss coming by a half-point in a 9-point home win over the Bulls as 9.5-point favorites.  They beat the Mavs by 7 as 2-point home favorites on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They also beat the Raptors by 16 and the Hornets by 31 on the road.

Now they hit the road again and face arguably the worst team in the entire NBA in the Washington Wizards.  The Wizards are 2-10 this season.  The Wizards rank 25th in defensive efficiency and are allowing 122.9 points per game and 49.6% shooting this season.  They also rank just 24th in offensive efficiency and 27th in net rating.

The Bucks are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three meetings with the Wizards with two wins coming by double-digits.  Milwaukee is 39-20 ATS in its last 59 games as a road favorite.  The Wizards just lost by 13 to the Mavericks and by 21 to the Knicks at home in their last two games to fall to 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS at home this season.  It will be more of the same here against the Bucks with another double-digit home loss.  Bet the Bucks Monday.

20* UConn/Texas ESPNU No-Brainer on UConn -5.5

The UConn Huskies won the national title last season and are loaded again this season.  They are off to a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season with all four victories coming by 20 points or more.  That includes their 77-57 win as 11-point favorites over Indiana yesterday in the early game.

Since they blew out Indiana, they were able to rest their starters late.  They also played the early game yesterday while Texas played the night game.  So they got to rest even longer plus watch the Longhorns play after.  They will be the fresher team and will have the better game plan coming into this one as a result.

Texas is 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall and has been grossly overvalued.  After covering by a single point in the opener, they failed to cover by 5 against Delaware State, by 4.5 against Rice and by 16.5 against Louisville.  That 81-80 win as 17.5-point favorites over Louisville yesterday was alarming.  

Louisville is expected to be one of the worst Power 5 teams in the country after last season's 4-27 disaster.  Louisville was beaten in an exhibition game in the preseason.  They only beat UMBC by 1 as 7.5-point favorites and were upset by Chattanooga by 10 as 3.5-point favorites.  The fact that the Longhorns needed a buzzer-beater to beat Louisville is all you need to know about the state of their program this season, especially since they are without one of their best players in Dylan Disu.

UConn is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 neutral court games.  The Huskies are 14-0 ATS in their last 14 games following three consecutive non-conference games.  UConn is 19-2 ATS in its last 21 non-conference games.  Texas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 75 points or more in two consecutive games.  Bet UConn Monday.

15* Rockets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 220.5

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 29th in the NBA in pace and 4th in defensive efficiency.  The Lakers rank 16th in pace and 22nd in offensive efficiency.  This game will be played at a snail's pace tonight with some poor offense on both sides.

Five of Houston's last six games have seen 219 or fewer combined points.  The lone exception was their 128-94 win over the Lakers that saw 222 combined points.  But familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and I expect this rematch to be more low-scoring, and we only need it to be 2 points less to cash this UNDER 220.5 ticket.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Mavericks OVER 244.5

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 11-2 OVER in their 13 games this season, scoring 123.5 points per game and allowing 119.7 points per game.  They rank 4th in pace, 2nd in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency.

Now they play a Sacramento Kings team that is a dead nuts OVER team when De'Aaron Fox is healthy.  They have gone for 252, 235 and 249 combined points in their last three games since Fox returned from injury.  They have scored 132, 125 and 129 points in those three games and will hang another big number on the Mavericks tonight.

Dallas is 8-0 OVER when the total is 230 or higher this season.  The Mavericks are 12-1 OVER in their last 13 games after playing three consecutive road games.  They just combined for 257 points with the Bucks last night and have combined for at least 241 points with their opponents in six consecutive games now while going OVER in all six.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Sacramento Kings ML -120

The Sacramento Kings have been rolling since getting D'Aaron Fox back from injury.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four games since he returned.  Now they are in a great spot tonight with yesterday off and playing a Mavericks team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The Mavericks put everything into their 125-132 road loss at Milwaukee last night and won't have much left in the tank for the Kings tonight.  The Mavericks are a terrible defensive team ranking 25th in defensive efficiency this season.  They won't be giving much effort on that end considering how tired they are.

Sacramento is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 road games.  The Kings are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher.  Sacramento is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 116-plus points per game.  Bet the Kings on the Money Line Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -4

The Indiana Pacers undervalued to start the season opening 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS.  They score 126.5 points per game while ranking 2nd in pace and 1st in offensive efficiency.  Playing at home today, the Pacers will force the Magic into an up-tempo game.  They are forcing everyone into up-tempo games, which is beneficial to them considering they are the best offensive team in the NBA, so more possessions equals more points for the Pacers.

This is a great spot for the Pacers as they are rested and ready to go after having the last four days off.  Meanwhile, the Magic will be playing their 4th road game in 6 days and are a tired team right now, especially since they are short-handed due to injury.  The Magic lost by 20 at Brooklyn and then upset the Bulls twice in three days, but the Bulls are terrible and the Magic are getting respect now for those two wins when they shouldn't be.

Orlando is 12-32 ATS in its last 44 games following two consecutive wins by 6 points or fewer.  The Pacers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 November home games.  The Pacers are 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five meetings with the Magic.  Bet the Pacers Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Magic/Pacers OVER 234

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 10-1 OVER this season.  They score 126.5 points per game and allow 123.4 points per game this season.  They rank 2nd in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency.

Playing at home today, the Pacers will force the Magic into an up-tempo game.  They are forcing everyone into up-tempo games, which is beneficial to them considering they are the best offensive team in the NBA, so more possessions equals more points for the Pacers.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Kansas State/Miami Bahamas Championship No-Brainer on Miami -2.5

The Miami Hurricanes made the Final 4 last year and brought back three starters from that team.  All three are off to good starts with Wooga Poplar averaging a team-high 28.8 points, Norchad Omier averaging 14.0 points and a team-high 9.8 rebounds, and Nijel Pack averaging 13.0 points and a team-high 5.0 assists.

Bensley Joseph (13.8 PPG, 3.0 SPG) has taken over a starting role this season and handled it very well.  Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland took the place of NBA draft pick Jordan Miller, and he is filling those massive shoes nicely averaging 17.3 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists.  This team is absolutely loaded to say the least.

Miami blasted New Jersey Tech 101-60 as 25-point favorites in the opener and then easily handled UCF 88-72 as 9.5-point favorites.  They had a letdown against FIU in a non-cover in a 86-80 win, likely looking ahead to this Bahamas Championship Tournament.  But they got back to their covering ways, beating Georgia 79-67 as 8-point favorites.  And now I expect them to blast this overrated Kansas State team.

Kansas State is overvalued after making a run to the Elite 8 last year.  Gone to the NBA are Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, who combined to average 35 of K-State's 76.2 points per game last year.  The leading return scorer is Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 boards last season.  But Tomlin is suspended to start the season, leaving the Wildcats with not much experience at all in what will be a rebuilding year.

Kansas State has been unimpressive thus far.  The Wildcats lost 82-69 as 3-point dogs to USC on a neutral.  They only beat Bellarmine 83-75 as 16-point favorites in their next game.  After beating South Dakota State 91-68 and Providence 73-70 and covering both games, the Wildcats are now getting respect again.  But they aren't in the same class as this Miami team, and that will show today.  Bet Miami Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -2.5

The Miami Heat are rolling right now with seven consecutive victories.  They play a struggling Chicago Bulls team that is in the midst of a ton of trade rumors right now.  The Bulls have lost three consecutive games, including back-to-back losses to Orlando at home.

The spot really favors the Heat tonight.  They had yesterday off while the Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 97-103 loss to the Magic last night.  This will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Bulls, which is one of the toughest spots a team can be in in the NBA.  Bet the Heat Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on New York Knicks -6.5

The New York Knicks have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the last two seasons.  That has been the case again this season as they are 7-5 SU & 7-3-2 ATS in their 12 games.  They have a great bench and guys like Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle just don't get the respect they deserve.

The Charlotte Hornets are a dumpster fire again this season and battling injuries.  No starter other than La'Melo Ball scored more than 11 points last night in a 130-99 home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks.  Now I expect them to get blown out by the Knicks, who are coming off a 120-99 road win at Washington last night.

The Knicks just beat the Hornets 129-107 as 10.5-point home favorites on Sunday.  They will cover this short 6.5-point spread in the rematch as well with the Hornets showing nothing worth betting on of late.

The Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  New York is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a road favorite.  The Knicks are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  New York is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game.  Bet the Knicks Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Blazers UNDER 223.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are without their top three guards in Anfernee Simons, Scoot Henderson and Malcolm Brogdon.  They are a dead nuts UNDER team as a result, and they were even with these guys healthy with the way they are playing.

The Blazers rank 24th in the NBA in pace, dead last (30th) in offensive efficiency and 9th in defensive efficiency.  They are putting in the effort defensively to try and stay competitive, but they just don't get anything easy on the offensive end.  They have been held to 95 points by the Cavaliers and 99 points by the Jazz in their last two games coming in.

The Lakers rank in the middle of the pack (14th) in pace and are 21st in offensive efficiency.  They should bring a big defensive effort after getting beat by the Kings last time out.  I think this game will be played at a snail's pace, the defense will be there, and both teams will struggle to score.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  These teams just played less than a week ago on November 12th with the Lakers beating the Blazers 116-110 for 226 combined points and a total of 219.5.  The Blazers shot 50% and the Lakers shot 48.8%, and both are unsustainable in the rematch.  Now the total has been raised up to 223.5 for the rematch, so there's value with the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Iowa -20

The Iowa Hawkeyes are 2-1 ATS against the closing line but 3-0 ATS as long as you didn't wait til close to bet them.  They beat North Dakota 110-68 as 20.5-point favorites, beat Alabama State 98-67 as closing 31.5-point favorites in the game that you win at all other numbers, and only lost 92-84 as 12-point road dogs at Creighton.

Death, taxes and betting on Iowa at home.  Fran McCaffery is 101-63 ATS as a home favorite or PK as the coach of Iowa.  McCaffery is 46-21 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more.  Iowa is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points.

Arkansas State lost 105-76 at Wisconsin in the opener and Iowa is better than Wisconsin.  If they can lose by 29 to the Badgers and give up 105 points to a team not known for offense, you can imagine what they'll give up against Iowa today.  The Red Wolves allow 90.7 points per game and 55.1% shooting to their opponents while ranking 290th in adjusted defense this season.

The Red Wolves are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-point shots per game.  The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game.  Bet Iowa Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Arkansas State/Iowa OVER 172.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Arkansas State Red Wolves visit the Iowa Hawkeyes.  I fully expect Iowa to top 100 points in this one to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 172.5 ticket.

Iowa is 3-0 OVER in their three games this season.  They beat North Dakota 110-68 for 178 combined points, beat Alabama State 98-67 for 165 combined points and beat lost 92-84 at Creighton for 176 combined points.  Iowa ranks 9th in adjusted tempo and 7th in offensive efficiency while playing little defense.

Speaking of playing little defense, Arkansas State lost 105-76 at Wisconsin for 181 combined points in the opener.  That's a Wisconsin team known for playing slow and struggling on offense.  They also lost 81-76 at Bowling Green for 156 combined points and beat Alcorn State 100-86 for 186 combined points.  The Red Wolves rank 290th in adjusted defense and 45th in average length of offensive possessions.  They like to get it up quick like the Hawkeyes.

Iowa is 7-0 OVER in its last seven home games following a road game.  The Hawkeyes are 14-3 OVER in their last 17 games against a team with a losing record.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -8.5

The Sacramento Kings have been rolling since getting De'Aaron Fox back from injury as he means everything to this team.  In the two games back they crushed Cleveland 132-120 as 1-point home underdogs and upset the Lakers 125-110 as 1-point road dogs.  Now they take on the hapless San Antonio Spurs tonight, and another double-digit blowout in their favor is going to be the result.

The Spurs are 0-6 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their last five losses coming by an average of 22.0 points per game.  Injuries have set them back as they are without both Devin Vassell and Tre Jones.  Plus, they just don't play any defense and simply don't have much talent aside from Wembenyana.

The Kings are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Spurs with their last three wins all coming by double-digits.  San Antonio is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games following four or more consecutive ATS losses.  Sacramento is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher.  Bet the Kings Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Butler +10

Thad Matta clearly has his players in place this season to make the Butler Bulldogs a real threat in the Big East.  Butler is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season beating Eastern Michigan 94-55 as 16-point favorites, SE Missouri State 91-56 as 20-point favorites and East Tennessee State 81-47 as 17-point favorites.  The Bulldogs are grossly undervalued covering the spread by a combined 55 points in those first three games and remain undervalued as 10-point dogs to Michigan State tonight.

Michigan State is grossly overvalued.  The Spartans are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season losing outright 76-79 as 16.5-point favorites to James Madison, only beating Southern Indiana 74-51 as 31.5-point favorites and losing to Duke 74-65 on a neutral as 4-point dogs.  The Spartans have failed to cover those three spreads by a combined 33 points.  Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Butler Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5

The Golden State Warriors are going to be without their two most important players tonight.  Stephen Curry (30.7 PPG) is what keeps the Warriors a contender in the West.  Well, they are going to be without him tonight.  They will also be without Draymond Green, who is their best defender and important in screen and rolls with Curry and as a passer.  They are one of the worst teams in the NBA without these two.

I think the Warriors are getting too much respect here because they were able to hang with the Timberwolves in a 3-point loss without these two in their last game.  That was clearly a letdown spot for the Timberwolves after beating the Warriors two days earlier, and knowing they didn't have to face Curry in the rematch.  Then Green and Thompson got tossed right away and Minnesota simply took their foot off the gas.

The Oklahoma City Thunder won't make the same mistake tonight.  They are in a great spot here as they are fully healthy and playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They also want revenge from a 141-139 home loss to the Warriors as 6-point dogs on November 3rd just two weeks ago.  Well, they didn't have their star in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for that game, while the Warriors were fully healthy and they still only lost by 2 on a buzzer-beater by the Warriors.

This game will also be on National TV so we'll get a fully-focused effort from the Thunder.  Oklahoma City is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when revenging a close loss by 3 points or less.  Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKC) - off a blowout home win by 20 points or more, a good team winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota +2

Minnesota has been impressive thus far beating Bethune-Cookman 80-60 as 17.5-point favorites and crushing UTSA 102-76 as 12-point favorites.  They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS covering the spread by a combined 16.5 points in their first two games, so they are undervalued.

Missouri is grossly overvalued thus far.  The Tigers are 2-1 SU by 0-3 ATS this season.  They failed to cover as 27.5-point favorites in a 22-point win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, lost outright as 3-point favorites by 15 at home to Memphis, and only beat SIU-Edwardsville by 18 as 18.5-point favorites.  They have failed to cover the spread in those three games by a combined 24 points.

Minnesota four-star freshman Cam Christie made his debut against UTSA and scored 18 points, which was the most points for a true freshman in his Golden Gophers debut since Kris Humphries in 2003.  Dawson Garcia averaged 15.6 PPG and 6.6 RPG last season and has upped his game thus far, averaging 22.5 PPG and 10.0 RPG through two games.  Isaiah Ihnen is averaging 14.0 PPG and 5.0 RPG after sitting out the past two seasons, so the Gophers are glad to have him back.

Missouri lost a ton of talent from the surprise team that made the NCAA Tournament last season in Dennis Gates' first year on the job.  They lost Kobe Brown to the NBA and bring back just one full-time starter.  It's no wonder they are struggling to meet expectations in the early going, especially with that 15-point home loss to Memphis being extra alarming.  Bet Minnesota Thursday.

15* Kings/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento ML +108

The Sacramento Kings just got De'Aaron Fox back from injury last time out.  He put his stamp on the game right away with 28 points in a 132-120 home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday.  Now the Kings will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and are primed for a big effort against the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.

This is a tough spot for the Lakers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the lowly Memphis Grizzlies last night.  The Lakers will also be playing their 7th game in 12 days and this is a big step up in class for them after beating the Grizzlies and Blazers at home in their last two games.

The Kings simply own the Lakers going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings including outright wins in their last two trips to Los Angeles.  It will be more of the same tonight given the rest advantage for Sacramento in a game I expect them to win outright.  Bet the Kings on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgetown/Rutgers UNDER 134

Rutgers remains a dead nuts UNDER team with head coach Steve Pikiell at the helm.  Through three games, the Scarlet Knights rank 281st in adjusted tempo, 150th in adjusted offense and 36th in adjusted defense.  They combined for just 129 points with Princeton, 114 points with Boson U and 123 points with Bryant.  This total of 134 has been set too high tonight.

Ed Cooley is the new head coach at Georgetown and he prefers to play slower and rely on defense similar to Pikiell.  He clearly has his hands full with this team after a 67-68 upset loss to Holy Cross as 17.5-point favorites.  Georgetown ranks 284th in adjusted tempo this season, playing even slower than Rutgers has thus far.  Points will be at a premium tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks PK

This is a tough spot for the Atlanta Hawks.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 126-120 win at Detroit against the short-handed Pistons last night.  Four of five starters played at least 34 minutes in that game to put away the Pistons late.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Knicks tonight.

The Knicks had yesterday off following their loss in Boston on Monday.  They will be the fresher team for this one, and I believe they are the better team this season.  The Knicks have had the Hawks' number in recent meetings going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the least three meetings with road wins by 6 and 21 points as well as a home win by 24.  They clearly have the Hawks figured out.

Atlanta is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 games following a win by 6 points or less.  New York is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 100 points or fewer.  The Knicks are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games when playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days.  Bet the Knicks Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on USC -12.5

USC returns leading scorer Boogie Ellis, who averaged 17.7 points per game last season and is the Pac-12 Preseason Player of the Year.  They added ESPN's No. 1-ranked recruit in the class of 2023 in Isaiah Collier, who was named the co-MVP of the McDonald's All-American game after scoring 25 points.  

Junior guard Kobe Johnson and 6-foot-11 senior Joshua Morgan are both great defensively and can score.  7-foot-1 Vincent Iwuchukwu returns from a health scare and senior DJ Rodman transfers in from Washington State.  They will be just fine as they await the debut of Bronny James, who had a health scare with his heart.

That has proven to be the case thus far as USC is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS.  They beat Kansas State 82-69 as 3-point favorites on a neutral.  Kansas State made the Elite 8 last year.  They also handled their business in a 85-59 win as 23.5-point favorites over CS-Bakersfield.  Ellis and Collier are meshing well and are up there for the best guard tandem in the entire country.

UC-Irvine has a really bad loss already coming 72-64 at San Jose State as 3.5-point favorites.  Their 91-74 home win over New Mexico State isn't that impressive when you consider New Mexico State lost by 40 at Kentucky the game prior.  Irvine is getting too much respect here and will be in over their heads against this loaded, underrated Trojans team.  Bet USC Tuesday.

15* Iowa/Creighton FS1 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 160.5

Two teams that love to push the tempo play tonight as the Iowa Hawkeyes visit the Creighton Bulldogs.  Iowa ranks 11th in adjusted tempo and 7th in average possession length and 11th in adjusted offensive efficiency while scoring 104.0 points per game through two games this season.  Creighton ranks 6th in adjusted offensive efficiency while scoring 97.0 points per game in their two victories thus far.

"We're trying to get up and down the court and I feel we do that as well as anybody in the country," Creighton guard Trey Alexander said leading into this game with Iowa. "So for us to play a team that likes to do what we do, I think it's going to work well in our favor."

Iowa is 44-27 OVER in its last 71 games overall.  Iowa is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games vs. Big East opponents.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Iowa +12.5

Iowa has a nice mix of veterans and young freshman talent and I think this is one of the more underrated teams in the country right now.  Iowa opened with a 110-68 win as 20-point favorites over North Dakota and a 98-67 win as closing 31.5-point favorites against Alabama State, though if you bet Iowa prior to close you likely won.

Peyton Sandfort (19.0 PPG, 10.5 RPG) has led the way but coach's son Patrick McCaffery (16.5 PPG) looks to be living up to his potential this season.  "We respect everybody but we fear no one," McCaffery said leading into this game with Creighton. "We really need to come in and push the envelope.  It's a great opportunity to compete.  They're a really good team."

Creighton is getting a lot of respect with a Top 10 ranking while bringing back three starters plus adding in Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth.  They won and covered their first two games against Florida A&M and North Dakota State, so this is clearly a big step up in class for both teams.  I just don't think there's as much separation as this 12.5-point spread would indicate.  Bet Iowa Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Dallas Mavericks -3.5

The Dallas Mavericks are 8-2 this season and showing what they are capable of when Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are on the court at the same time.  They have changed their offensive philosophy and are getting off shots quick so defenses don't have time to adjust, and Doncic is in the best shape of his life to accommodate it.

The Mavericks are scoring 124.1 points per game this season.  They rank 9th in pace and 2nd in offensive efficiency, so it's clearly working.  They just beat the Clippers 144-126 at home which was followed up by a 136-124 win at New Orleans.  They get to play the Pelicans again tonight, and it's going to be more of the same given the current state of their opponent.

The Pelicans are one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NBA right now.  They are without CJ McCollum, Jose Alvarado, Trey Murphy III and Larry Nance Jr.  They could also be without Herbert Jones, who is questionable.  There is too much on the shoulders of Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson, and these two aren't capable of beating the Mavericks on their own.

The Pelicans are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with four losses by 12 points or more and the five losses coming by an average of 14.8 points per game.  New Orleans is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games vs. explosive offensive teams that score 120-plus points pre game.  Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Texas A&M -5.5

Texas A&M is ranked 13th in the country but they don't get the kind of respect as other top teams.  They should be more than 5.5-point favorites here against the rebuilding SMU Mustangs tonight.

Texas A&M is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS beating Texas A&M Commerce 78-46 as 21.5-point favorites.  To compare, Texas Tech beat that same team by 27 and Kentucky only beat them by 20.  The Aggies then went on the road and beat Ohio State 73-66 as 1.5-point dogs last time out.

SMU is 3-0 against a much softer schedule and have two concerning results already.  The Mustangs only beat Southwest Assembly of God 82-63 and Lamar 78-67 as 20-point favorites.  They aren't going to be able to hang with a team like Texas A&M given those results.

SMU is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 November games.  The Mustangs are 13-30 ATS in their last 43 games as a home dog of 6 points or less or PK.  The Aggies are 25-12 ATS in their last 37 games overall.  Texas A&M is 34-18 ATS in its last 52 games as a road favorite or PK.  In Buzz Williams I trust.  Bet Texas A&M Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Tarleton State/Bradley UNDER 133.5

Bradley is a dead nuts UNDER team under head coach Brian Wardle.  They rank 321st out of 333 teams in adjusted tempo this season.  I think their first two games going over the total due to overtime has provided us with some line value on the UNDER here against Tarleton State tonight.

Bradley was tied 64-64 at the end of regulation against UAB for 128 combined points with a total of 140.5 that finished with 144 after OT.  Bradley was tied 62-62 at the end of regulation for 124 combined points against Utah State with a 135-point total that finished with 138 after OT.  Both UAB and Utah State are known as up-tempo teams too, so that's saying a lot about how Bradley plays that those two games were at 128 and 124 at the end of regulation, respectively.

Tarleton State played another team like Bradley in Virginia to open the season.  They lost that game 80-50 for 130 combined points.  Tarleton also plays slow ranking 278th in the country in average length of offensive possession.  Tarleton is 14-4 UNDER in its last 18 games after allowing 65 points or fewer in two consecutive games coming in.  Wardle is 15-6 UNDER in November home games as the coach of Bradley.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/76ers OVER 239

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 9-1 to the OVER this season while scoring 126.0 points per game and allowing 123.1 points per game.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency.

The 76ers are having no problem scoring without James Harden as they are off to a 8-1 start this season and scoring 120.7 points per game.  They are in line for one of their biggest outputs of the season, similar to their 146-128 home win over Washington a few games back that saw 174 combined points.  Washington is a poor man's Indiana playing up-tempo and no defense.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Pacers and 76ers with 263, 262, 290 and 255 combined points.  The books just can't set these Indiana totals high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on South Dakota State +10.5

Kansas State is overvalued after making a run to the Elite 8 last year.  Gone to the NBA are Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, who combined to average 35 of K-State's 76.2 points per game last year.  The leading return scorer is Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 boards last season.  But Tomlin is suspended to start the season, leaving the Wildcats with not much experience at all in what will be a rebuilding year.

That appears to be the case thus far.  The Wildcats lost 82-69 as 3-point dogs to USC on a neutral in their opener.  They struggled to put away Bellarmine in a 83-75 win as 16-point home favorites last time out.  That narrow win looks really bad when you consider Bellarmine lost their other game 91-57 as 10.5-point dogs at Washington.  And in Washington's other two games, they failed to cover in an 8-point win over Northern Kentucky as 15.5-point favorites and lost outright by 7 as 5.5-point favorites against Nevada.

South Dakota State lost 81-75 at home as 2-point favorites against Akron in their opener.  Everyone picked Akron to win the MAC this season, so that wasn't a bad loss at all.  This might actually be a step down in class for them tonight.  They went on to beat Dakota Wesleyan 83-55 and have had the last four days off to get ready for Kansas State.  

South Dakota State is the preseason favorite to win the Summit League.  A big reason for that is having Summit League Preseason Player of the Year, Zeko Mayo.  He shows his 28-point effort against Akron was no fluke with 28 more against Wesleyan.  He and William Kyle III (17 points, 13 rebounds) both had double-doubles.  I expect Mayo, Kyle III and the Jackrabbits give the Wildcats a run for their money tonight.  Bet South Dakota State Monday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +9

The New York Knicks have quietly gone 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They haven't lost a single game by more than 9 points all season, and they aren't about to start now.  

The books have set this number too high because the Knicks are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but they blew out the Hornets 129-107 at 12:00 PM EST Sunday and now don't play until night on Monday. They also had three days off prior to that game and rested their starters in the 4th quarter of that blowout Sunday.  They will still be fresh for this game Monday, and they want revenge from a 104-108 home loss to the Celtics in their first meeting this season.

The Celtics are getting too much respect here off a pair of blowout home wins over the Nets and Raptors.  This is a big step up in class for them tonight.  They never blow out the Knicks, going 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings with New York.  The Knicks have them figured out, and they will keep this one close again tonight if not win outright.

New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a blowout win by 20 points or more.  The Knicks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games following three or more consecutive wins.  Asking the Celtics to beat the Knicks by double-digits to beat us tonight is asking too much.  Bet the Knicks Monday.

15* CBB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Miami -20.5

The Miami Hurricanes made the Final 4 last year and brought back three starters from that team.  All three are off to good starts with Wooga Poplar averaging a team-high 22.0 points, Norchad Omier averaging 19.5 points and a team-high 11.0 rebounds, and Nijel Pack averaging 9.5 points and a team-high 6.0 assists.

But the unsung hero is Bensley Joseph, who had an incredible stat line in a 88-72 win over UCF on Friday.  He has 15 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 steals and 4 blocks.  Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland took the place of NBA draft pick Jordan Miller, and he is filling those massive shoes nicely averaging 14.0 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists.

Miami blasted New Jersey Tech 101-60 as 25-point favorites in the opener and easily handled UCF 88-72 as 9.5-point favorites last time out.  Now they play a terrible Florida International team that lost 85-62 as 9.5-point dogs at UCF in their opener to give these teams a rare common opponent here early in the season.  It was no aberration as FIU went on to lose 82-65 despite being 4.5-point home favorites to Tarleton State.  It's not going to go well for the Panthers tonight, either.

FIU is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 road games.  The Panthers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.  Miami is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a home win where they scored 85 points or more.  The Hurricanes rank 3rd in the country in average offensive possessions length so they are going to get a ton of shots up on offense, which is why I'm not scared of laying this big number.  Bet Miami Monday.

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +3

The Phoenix Suns are going to be fade material until they get healthy.  Bradley Beal is working his way back from injury, Devin Booker remains out and Eric Gordon is questionable after missing the last game.  There's just not enough depth on this team to be missing these guys, or not having them at 100%.

The Suns are 2-4 SU & 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall which includes upset losses to the Spurs (twice) and Lakers all at home.  Their only two wins during this stretch came against the lowly Bulls and Pistons.  Now they take a big step up in class here against an Oklahoma City Thunder team that I believe is a contender in the West when healthy.

Well, the Thunder are healthy right now beating the Hawks and Cavaliers at home before a disappointing loss at Sacramento.  They'll come back highly motivated for a victory after that loss to the Kings, and they should not be underdogs here given the current state of the Suns.

The Thunder are 42-22 ATS in their last 64 games after scoring 105 points or less.  Oklahoma City is 37-23 ATS in its last 60 games as an underdog.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +4.5

The Houston Rockets are grossly undervalued right now.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall despite being underdogs in three of those five games.  They have wins by 9, 18, 25, 34 and 3 points as these games have rarely even been close to the spread.

Now the Rockets will stay hot tonight and won't have a letdown considering the defending champion Denver Nuggets are coming to town.  The Nuggets have been fortunate to play a home-heavy schedule to this point with six of their first nine games at home.  They are 1-2 ATS on the road with a 4-point win over lowly Memphis and a 21-point loss at Minnesota included.

The Nuggets aren't at full strength right now as Jamal Murray is sidelined with a hamstring injury.  They have been dominant when Murray and Jokic have been on the court at the same time, but they have been vulnerable the past several seasons when Murray has been out.  They are vulnerable tonight against the red-hot Rockets.  Bet the Rockets Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pacers/76ers OVER 237.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-1 to the OVER this season while scoring 126.0 points per game and allowing 121.6 points per game.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency.

The 76ers are having no problem scoring without James Harden as they are off to a 7-1 start this season and scoring 118.6 points per game.  They are in line for one of their biggest outputs of the season, similar to their 146-128 home win over Washington a few games back that saw 174 combined points.  Washington is a poor man's Indiana playing up-tempo and no defense.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Pacers and 76ers with 262, 290 and 255 combined points.  The books just can't set these Indiana totals high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors +8.5

The Toronto Raptors have turned it around and been very impressive in their last four games.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming to the 76ers on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  The 76ers have just one loss this season and it came by a single point.

Toronto beat Milwaukee 130-111 as 4.5-point home dogs.  The Raptors went on the road and topped San Antonio 123-116 as 3.5-point favorites.  They then upset the Dallas Mavericks 127-116 as 4.5-point dogs.  Now they are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off, plus they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here.

Meanwhile, Boston will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the Nets 121-107 at home last night.  The starters had to play most the game in that one as it wasn't decided until late in the 4th quarter.  It will also be the 5th game in 8 days for the Celtics, who shouldn't be laying this big of a number given the Raptors' rest advantage.

Four of the last five meetings between Boston and Toronto have been decided by 6 points or fewer.  Bet the Raptors Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toledo -6.5

The Toledo Rockets are a contender in the MAC this season.  The won 94-60 as 15.5-point home favorites over Detroit in their opener to continue their ATS dominance over the last several seasons, especially when favored at home.

Louisiana beat Youngstown State 72-62 as 4-point home favorites in their opener.  Louisiana is picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Sun Belt.  That win over Youngstown State doesn't look at good now after Youngstown State just lost 92-62 at Michigan as 16-point underdogs Friday night.

Toledo is 44-24 ATS in its last 68 games overall.  Toledo is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games.  Bet Toledo Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder just got their star in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back in the lineup and promptly pulled off two consecutive upset victories over the Hawks 126-117 and the Cavaliers 128-120.  They are as healthy as they have been all season and a dangerous team when that's the case.

The Sacramento Kings are still without their star in De'Aaron Fox, and they have been dreadful without him.  The Kings are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games without Fox.  That includes consecutive blowout losses to the Rockets by 25 and 18 points, as well as a narrow 3-point win over the Blazers as 8-point favorites last time out.  This is now a big step up in class here for the Kings against the Thunder tonight.  It won't go well for the Kings here.  

Plays against home teams were the line is +3 to -3 (Sacramento) - after losing by 42 or more points total against the spread in their last five games in the first half of the season are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Thunder Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets -2.5

The Houston Rockets are grossly undervalued right now.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last five games overall despite being underdogs in three of those four games.  They have wins by 9, 18, 25 and 34 points as these games aren't even coming close to the spreads.

Now the Rockets will stay hot tonight against the injury-ravaged New Orleans Pelicans.  The Pelicans are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 18, 18 and 21 points.  They are without CJ McCollum, Jose Alvarado, Naji Marshall and Trey Murphy III.  Both Zion Williamson and Herbert Jones are questionable tonight as well.

New Orleans is 16-32 ATS in its last 48 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pelicans are 6-17 ATS in their last 21 games vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game.  The Pelicans are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games when playing against a marginal winning (51-60%) team.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Houston) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points in their last five games in the first half of the season are 44-18 (71%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on any team (Houston) - vs. division opponents, off three or more consecutive upset wins as underdogs are 48-18 (72.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +12

The Brooklyn Nets are 4-4 SU but 7-0-1 ATS this season.  They haven't lost a single game by more than 10 points and three of their four losses came by 5 points or fewer.  They have been competitive in every game, and they will be competitive against the Celtics tonight.

The Nets will be motivated to revenge that 10-point defeat as it came at the hands of the Celtics on November 4th less than a week ago.  Keep in mind the Nets were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back in that game, while the Celtics were coming in on two days' rest so they had a huge advantage.  They don't have that same advantage tonight.

The Celtics aren't playing well right now going 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were upset on the road by both the Timberwolves and 76ers plus pushing in that 10-point win over the Nets.  The Celtics are back home for the first time since November 1st and there are distractions they will be dealing with back home after a 3-game road trip.  Bet the Nets Friday.

15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Chattanooga +4

Louisville was the worst Power 5 team in all of college basketball last season.  They lost nine consecutive games to begin last season and went 4-28 overall.  They are likely to be the worst Power 5 team in all of college basketball again in 2023-24.

Louisville lost 71-68 to Kentucky Wesleyan in an exhibition game on October 30th.  The Cardinals were life and death in a 94-93 home win over MD-Baltimore Counting as 7.5-point favorites in their official opener.  And now they are going to get upset by Chattanooga, which is coming off an 89-44 win over Covenant in their opener.  I expect the Monarchs to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  

Louisville is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite or PK.  The Cardinals are 0-8 ATS in their last eight November games.  Bet Chattanooga Friday.

15* Hawks/Magic NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on OVER 231.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace, 4th in offensive efficiency and 17th in defensive efficiency.  They have gone for 237 or more combined points in five of their last six games overall.

The Orlando Magic were a good defensive team with Wendell Carter Jr. healthy.  But he has missed the last couple games and is out for three weeks now.  They are going to have to go more small ball without their starting center, and it's going to hurt them defensively.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between Atlanta and Orlando with 251, 259 and 233 combined points.  They have combined for at least 233 points in four of their last five meetings as well.  This total has been set too low tonight folks.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bucks/Pacers OVER 241

Both the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks are dead nut OVER teams.  The Pacers are 7-1 OVER in their eight games this season while the Bucks are 5-2 OVER in their seven games.  Both teams play fast, are great on offense and terrible on defense.

The Pacers rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, 1st on offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency.  The Bucks rank 6th in pace, 11th in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency.

That makes it no surprise that the OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Pacers and Bucks with 247 or more combined points in all five meetings, and none of the five went to OT.  They have averaged 263.4 combined points per game in those five meetings, which is 22.4 points more than this 241-point total tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Rockets UNDER 221

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team this season.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace and 13th in defensive efficiency.  They just held the Kings to 89 and 97 points in their last two games coming in.

The Lakers are also more of an UNDER team, especially dating back to last season.  They rank 23rd in pace this season and 24th in offensive efficiency.  Instant offense bench player Gabe Vincent is out and Anthony Davis is questionable tonight.  Key defender Rui Hachimura is expected to return from a concussion tonight.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (Houston) - off a home win, a bad team from last season that won 25% to 40% of their games are 29-6 (82.9%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder gave the Golden State Warriors all they wanted in a 139-141 loss without their best player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.  He returned to lead them to a 126-117 home win over the surging Atlanta Hawks last time out.

Now the Thunder are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days with their best player back.  They have been the single-most undervalued team in the NBA over the last three years and are off to an impressive 5-2 ATS start this season.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS this season and remain overvalued here as road favorites.  This is a potential letdown spot for the Cavaliers after beating the Warriors 115-104 at home last time out.  They are getting healthier too and will be a bet on team soon, just not tonight.

Oklahoma City is 27-8 ATS in its last 35 games vs. poor offensive teams scoring 108 points per game or fewer.  The Thunder have won each of their last two meetings with the Cavaliers 112-100 at home and 108-105 on the road, which came earlier this season as 2.5-point dogs.  Now they are 2.5-point home dogs in the rematch in a game I expect them to win outright.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Pacers OVER 241

Both the Indiana Pacers and Utah Jazz are dead nuts OVER teams and matched up tonight in what should be one of the highest scoring games of the season.  The Pacers are 6-1 OVER in their seven games this season while the Jazz are 6-2 OVER in their eight games.

The Pacers rank 2nd in the NBA in pace and 1st in offensive efficiency.  The Jazz rank 9th in the NBA in pace and 15th in offensive efficiency.  The Jazz rank 28th in defensive efficiency while the Pacers rank 26th.

The Pacers and Jazz have combined for at least 238 points in each of their last three meetings, and they are even more OVER teams this season.  Indiana is 15-2 OVER in its last 17 games vs. good rebounding teams outrebounding their opponents by 3-plus boards per game.  Utah is 54-34 OVER in its last 88 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida Atlantic -6

The Florida Atlantic Owls went 35-4 last season and made the Final Four.  Amazingly, all five starters return from that team in Johnell Davis (13.8 PPG), Alijah Martin (13.4 PPG), Vladislav Golden (10.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG), Nick Boyd (8.9 PPG) and Bryan Greenlee (7.3 PPG).  It's safe to say this team is going to have a lot of chemistry from the jump.

Loyola-Chicago went 10-21 last season and 4-14 in Atlantic 10 play.  No question they will be improved this season, but they are getting too much respect here for a team that just isn't as dominant since losing Porter Moser to Oklahoma.  Drew Valentine has not been able to fill the massive shoes he left behind.

Florida Atlantic is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games.  Loyola-Chicago is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 games overall.  Bet Florida Atlantic Wednesday.

15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa -19.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes dominate in non-conference play every year, especially at home.  The Hawkeyes are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 non-conference home games.  They are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games overall.  Fran McCaffery is 100-62 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of IOwa, including 55-29 ATS as a home favorite of 10 points or more.

Paul Sather is 11-26 ATS in non-conference games as the coach of North Dakota.  Sather is 19-40 ATS in road games as their head coach.  North Dakota went 13-20 last season and won't be much better in 2023.

Iowa is undervalued due to losing Kris Murray to the NBA draft.  They bring back seniors Tony Perkins and Patrick McCaffery, and junior Payton Sandfort to form a veteran core.  The freshman class is a good one with Pryce Sandfort, Brock Harding, Owen Freeman and Ladji Dembele.

Freeman will make an immediate impact with his size and skill, and he was teammates with Harding as they won a 4A State Championship together at Moline.  Harding was Mr. Basketball in Illinois in 2023.  Pryce Sandfort is Payton's younger brother and was Iowa's Mr. Basketball last season.  Dembele was a 4-start recruit from Africa and has been crushing it in the weight room, getting up to 260 pounds.  Bet Iowa Tuesday.

20* USC/Kansas State CBB Season Opener on USC -2.5

USC returns leading scorer Boogie Ellis, who averaged 17.7 points per game last season and is the USC Preseason Player of the Year.  They added ESPN's No. 1-ranked recruit in the class of 2023 in Isaiah Collier, who was named the co-MVP of the McDonald's All-American game after scoring 25 points.  

Junior guard Kobe Johnson and 6-foot-11 senior Joshua Morgan are both great defensively and can score.  7-foot-1 Vincent Iwuchukwu returns from a healthy scorer and senior DJ Rodman transfers in from Washington State.  They will be just fine as they await the debut of Bronny James, who had a health scare with his heart.

Kansas State is overvalued after making a run to the Elite 8 last year.  Gone to the NBA are Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, who combined to average 35 of K-State's 76.2 points per game last year.  The leading return scorer is Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 boards last season.  But Tomlin is suspended to start the season, leaving the Wildcats with not much experience at all in what will be a rebuilding year.

This game will be played on a neutral court, but USC will have the crowd advantage with the short trip to Paradise, NV at T-Mobile Arena.  Andy Enfield is 9-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3 points or less or PK as the coach of USC.  Bet USC Monday.

15* Pelicans/Nuggets NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 221.5

A couple key injuries to both teams has me backing the UNDER between the New Orleans Pelicans and Denver Nuggets tonight.  The Pelicans are going to be without CJ McCollum (21.7 PPG, 5.7 APG) who has been playing well and started each of the first six games for the Pelicans.  Their offense isn't going to run near as smoothly without him.

The key to the Nuggets success over the last several season has been Nikola Jokic paired with Jamaal Murray.  They just haven't been nearly as good when Murray has been sidelined, especially offensively.  Well, they will be without Murray (16.3 PPG, 7.4 APG) tonight with a quad injury.

The Pelicans and Nuggets have combined for 195 and 197 points in two of their last three meetings.  They have combined for 221 or fewer points at the end of regulation in nine of their last 13 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Rockets UNDER 219

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Rockets and Kings.  The Rockets won the first meeting 107-89 for just 196 combined points with a total of 220.5.  Now the total is 219 in the rematch, and they haven't adjusted it down low enough.

The Kings are really struggling offensively since losing their best player in PG De'Aaron Fox to injury.  They managed just 101 points on 40.9% shooting against the Warriors and 89 points on 38.1% shooting against the Rockets.  They are really lost without him and forced to play a different game, slowing it down and relying more on defense.

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 28th in pace this season and 22nd in offensive efficiency.  They are scoring just 107.6 points per game on 45.9% shooting this season.

Houston is 13-4 UNDER in its last 17 games following an upset win as an underdog.  The Rockets are 14-4 UNDER in their last 18 games as a home dog of 6 points or less.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic ML -115

The Dallas Mavericks are overvalued right now due to a 5-1 start this season against a very soft schedule.  Their five wins have come against the Spurs, Nets, Grizzlies, Bulls and Hornets with four of them coming by single-digits.  Their lone step up in class game they lost by 11 at Denver.

This is also a very tough spot for the Mavericks playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and in their 3rd different city in four days.  Luka Doncic played 36 minutes and Kyrie Irving 34 in an unimpressive 124-118 win over Charlottte as 11.5-point favorites last night.  The Hornets were on the 2nd of a back-to-back and nearly pulled the upset.

Now they must travel to Orlando overnight and play a Magic team that I believe is the most underrated in the NBA this season.  The Magic are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their six games this season with their two losses both coming on the road to the Clippers and the Lakers (by 3).  The loss to the Clippers was the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They avenged that loss to the Lakers by beating them by 19 at home in the rematch last time out.

The Magic rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating while the Mavericks rank 22nd.  Poor defense is going to hurt the Magic all season, while the Magic will be a team you can rely on because they play defense consistently.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-1 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Magic on the Money Line Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER 218.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  The Grizzlies and Blazers will be playing for a 2nd time in 3 days Sunday in Portland.  The first game on Friday went to OT but was tied 102-102 at the end of regulation for just 204 combined points.  There's clearly value on the UNDER 218.5 in the rematch, and I think we cash this with ease barring OT.

The Blazers are going to be without their two young, talented guards in Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons again tonight.  They were already struggling offensively with these two, and it's only going to get worse without them.

The Memphis Grizzlies are 0-6 this season and struggling offensively without JA Morant and four other key players right now.  They rank dead last (30th) in offensive efficiency this season.  The Blazers are 28th in offensive efficiency, so these are the two of the three worst offensive teams in the NBA in the early going.

Portland also ranks 25th in pace and will slow it down playing at home, especially without both Henderson and Simons.  Familiarity will also force these teams to play at a slower pace because the defenses know what to expect now, which makes it tougher sledding for the offenses to try and get the ball in the positions they want to.

The Blazers are 26-14 UNDER in their last 40 games as home underdogs.  The UNDER is 6-3 in the their last nine meetings with the Grizzlies and would be 7-2 if not for OT.  Memphis is 14-5 UNDER in its last 19 road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The UNDER is 11-3 in Grizzlies last 14 road games following two or more consecutive losses.  Memphis is 17-4 UNDER in its last 21 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Warriors/Cavs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland ML -120

The Golden State Warriors are coming off two straight buzzer-beater wins over the Kings (by 1) and Thunder (by 2).  But the Kings were without their best player in De'Aaron Fox and the Thunder were without their best player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.  I think this is a letdown spot for the Warriors off those two wins, and now they face a healthy Cleveland Cavaliers team on the road tonight.

The Cavaliers finally got Jarrett Allen and Darius Garland back from injury.  Now we're going to see what this team is capable of after a shaky 2-4 start that is allowing us to 'buy low' on them tonight.  I look for their best effort here with the Warriors coming to town Sunday night.  And we'll 'sell high' on the Warriors following five consecutive victories.

Golden State is 17-34 ATS in its last 51 road games.  Bet the Cavaliers Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +8.5

The Utah Jazz are coming off a tough 2-point home loss to the Orlando Magic.  That followed up a 133-109 home win over Memphis the previous night as it was the 2nd of a back-to-back for them.  They also played the defending champion Nuggets tough in a 102-110 road loss as 8.5-point road dogs in their previous game.  This team is trending in the right direction.

Speaking of the defending champion Nuggets, the Timberwolves just beat them 110-89 at home to avenge their playoff loss to the Nuggets last season.  They will be flat as a pancake off such a big win.  I don't expect them to play with the kind of intensity tonight that it's going to take to put away the Jazz by 9-plus points.

Home-court advantage meant nothing in this series last season.  The road team went 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS with the Jazz winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs and outright as 8-point road dogs.  Utah is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games after losing two of its last three games.  The Jazz are 35-15 ATS in their last 50 games as underdogs.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +4

The Orlando Magic will be out for revenge from a 103-106 road loss to the Lakers are 3-point underdogs on October 30th just a few days ago.  Now they are 4-point home underdogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment.

I know the Magic will be without Wendell Carter Jr., but they are a deep team and can handle the loss.  The Lakers are without Gabe Vincent and Rui Hachimura and could be without Taurean Prince tonight.  They aren't a very deep team and can't afford these losses.

While the Magic will be highly motivated for revenge, the Lakers won't be that motivated at all to beat the Magic for the 2nd time in a week.  That's especially the case considering it's also a massive letdown spot for the Lakers coming off a 130-125 (OT) win over the Clippers that ended an 11-game losing streak in the series.  The Lakers will be flat as a pancake tonight.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +9.5

The Miami Heat needed the play-in round just to make the playoffs as a No. 8 seed last year.  They struggled in the regular season and were one of the biggest money burners in the NBA.  But they turned it on in the playoffs to make it all the way to the NBA Finals.  Postseason Miami is much better than regular season Miami.

That is playing out in the early going again this season.  The Heat whiffed on Damian Lillard while also losing two key role players in Gabe Vincent and Max Strus in the offseason.  The Heat are 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS through five games with their lone win coming by a single point at home against the lowly Detroit Pistons as 9.5-point favorites.  They lost by 8 at Boston, by 16 at Minnesota and by 8 at Milwaukee.  They were also upset as 6.5-point home favorites by the Nets.

I know the Wizards are rebuilding and not very good, but Miami cannot be expected to win by double-digits against anyone right now, which is what it's going to take to beat us.  The Wizards have played a tough schedule with their three losses to Indiana, Boston and Atlanta, and they covered in that loss to the Hawks.  They also beat Memphis at home.  They can hang with the Heat tonight.

Each of the last four meetings between Washington and Miami were decided by 8 points or less.  Six of the last seven meetings were decided by 8 points or less as well.  Miami is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cavs/Pacers OVER 225

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace this season only behind the Washington Wizards.  They rank 7th in offensive efficiency and dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency.  They just lost 155-104 to the Celtics for 259 combined points, the second time in four games they have gone for 259-plus.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have more shooters than they did last season with the additions of Max Strus and Georges Niang.  They also take a hit defensively with these additions.  But they are shooting more 3-pointers and are more of an OVER team than last season because of it.

Indiana beat Cleveland 125-113 for 238 combined points earlier this season in a game that the Cavaliers rested Donovan Mitchell.  The Cavs and Pacers have combined for at least 225 points in five of their last six meetings, so this total is definitely a little short to say the least.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +1

This is a good spot to back the Orlando Magic.  They are coming off consecutive losses to the Lakers and Clippers on the road, which was a tough spot playing them on back-to-back days.  Those are also two of the best teams in the NBA.  Now the Magic take a big step down in class here against the Utah Jazz.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 6 days, and they are fully healthy.

The spot couldn't be much worse for the Jazz.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They beat Memphis last night, but everyone is beating Memphis as the Grizzlies are still in search of their first victory.  The Jazz won't have a whole lot left in the tank for the Magic tonight.

The Magic are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 non-conference games.  The Jazz are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games as home favorite of 6 points or fewer.  Orlando is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games following two consecutive road games.  Bet the Magic Thursday.

20* Clippers/Lakers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles Clippers +5.5

I took a bad number here as it moved to +7 shortly after I released it on the news that both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are questionable to play tonight due to rest.  I still think the Clippers can be competitive with the Lakers if one or both sit.

The Clippers are 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Lakers.  It's rare you get the opportunity to back them as underdogs to the Lakers, and the only reason we are tonight is due to the rest situation and the Clippers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 118-102 win over the Magic last night.  But that was a blowout and the starters rested late in the 4th quarter and will still be fresh if they play tonight, plus there's no travel involved getting to stay at home here.

This is a fade of the Lakers more than anything.  The Lakers are 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS this season with their two wins coming 100-95 at home over the Suns, who were playing without both Booker and Beal, and 106-103 at home over the Magic who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They haven't blown out anyone and aren't going to blow out the Clippers tonight.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Cavaliers/Knicks UNDER 211.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Cleveland and New York will be facing off for a 2nd consecutive day.  This is also a rematch from the playoffs last year, so familiarity is at an all-time high here between these teams.

Low-scoring games have been the norm when these teams get together.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with 201 or fewer combined points in all six meetings.  Given that fact, this total of 211.5 is too high tonight.

These teams combined for 200 points last night and it should be more of the same tonight.  The Cavaliers are dealing with key injuries to scorers in Darius Garland and Caris LeVert, plus Donovan Mitchell isn't 100% as he has been battling a hamstring injury in the early going.  The Knicks are fully healthy and a very good defensive team when that's the case.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -4.5

It was going to take some time for Giannis, Lillard and the Bucks to gel.  Now that they have three games under their belts, I like the prospects of this team moving forward.  The Giants/Lillard pick and roll is pretty much unstoppable.

The Toronto Raptors are clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA this season.  They lost Fred VanVleet in the offseason and their offense ranks dead last in the NBA in efficiency.  They are scoring just 99.5 points per game on 42.5% shooting this season, which is terrible in today's NBA.

The Raptors are 1-3 SU this season and lost by 7 to the 76ers and by 8 to the Blazers in their last two home games coming in.  That's a really bad loss to Portland because they are also one of the worst teams in the NBA.  This will be their toughest test yet.

Milwaukee is 37-17 ATS in its last 54 games as a road favorite.  Bet the Bucks Wednesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +7.5

The San Antonio Spurs took both the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets to the wire in their first two games this season.  But they were blasted by 40 points on the road to the Los Angeles Clippers last time out.  Now it's time to 'buy low' on the Spurs catching 7.5 points against the Phoenix Suns.

Conversely, it's time to 'sell high' on the Suns after opening 3-0 ATS through their first three games.  It's going to catch up with them not having Devin Booker and Bradley Beal because this team doesn't have much talent outside the Big 3 in those two and Durant.  They shouldn't be favored by 7.5 points here over the Spurs without Booker and Beal tonight.

Phoenix is 32-54 ATS in its last 86 home games following a win by 20 points or more.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (San Antonio) - after scoring 95 points or less against an opponent that scored 125 points or more are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Orlando Magic ML +110

The Los Angeles Lakers are in a terrible spot tonight.  They are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after going to OT and losing 127-132 at Sacramento last night.  Four starters played at least 39 minutes for the Lakers.  LeBron James is supposed to be on a minutes restriction, so don't be surprised if the Lakers sit him tonight.

The Lakers won't have much left in the tank for the Magic, who are one of my favorite teams to back in the early going this season because they have a lot of chemistry with pretty much everyone back from a team that was a ATS machine in the 2nd half of the season last year.  The Magic are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.

The Magic have been impressive to start this season, going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS while beating Houston 116-86 as 4.5-point home favorites and Portland 102-97 as 3.5-point road favorites.  The Lakers are an overvalued commodity in the early going at 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS.  Orlando is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 non-conference games.  Bet the Magic on the Money Line Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -3.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have been dominant when Zion Williams, CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram have been healthy at the same time.  They had the best record in the West last season before Zion went down.  They are off to a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season, winning 111-104 at Memphis and 96-87 at home over the Knicks.

While the Pelicans are rested and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, the Golden State Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Pelicans tonight, and don't be surprised to see them rest a starter or two.

The home team went 4-0 SU in four meetings between the Warriors and Pelicans last season with the home team winning by 9 points or more in all four.  Golden State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a road dog of 6 points or less and was one of the worst road teams in the NBA last season.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -5

The Milwaukee Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight, but not all back-to-backs are created equal.  They were blasted 127-110 at home by the Hawks last night, so they will be motivated to bounce back with a victory.  There's no travel involved as they are home again tonight, and the blowout nature of that loss meant the Bucks didn't play their starters much in the 4th quarter.  They should still be fresh and pissed off to bounce back.

Adding to their motivation is the fact that they were knocked out of the playoffs in the 1st round by the Miami Heat last year.  They want revenge, and they could have easily been overlooking the Hawks yesterday and looking ahead to this revenge game.

The Heat are one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA this season because of their historic run to the NBA Finals as an 8th seed.  They are much worse in the regular season than they are in the playoffs, needing the play-in round just to get into the playoffs last year.  They struck out on Damian Lillard in the offseason, and now he's with the Bucks.  The Heat just lack talent overall especially after losing Gabe Vincent and Max Strus.

Miami is 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS this season with their lone win coming 103-102 at home as 9.5-point favorites against Detroit.  They then lost by 8 as 8-point dogs at Boston and by 16 as 8.5-point dogs at Minnesota.  They are without two key role players in Caleb Martin and Josh Richardson, leaving too much on Jimmy Butler's shoulders.  They are relying on aging veterans Kyle Lowry and Kevin Love.  Their only good three healthy players are Butler, Adebayo and Herro, who is making his way back from injury.  This is a team I want to fade early in the season.  

Milwaukee is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less.  Plays on favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Milwaukee) - off an upset loss as a favorite, in the first 6 games of the season, a playoff team from last season that lost 4 or more of their final 5 games are 54-22 (71.1%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Bucks Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -2.5

The Indiana Pacers are one of the most talented young teams in the NBA this season.  They brought back all their key pieces from last season including Haliburton, Mathurin and Turner.  They added Denver's key 6th man in Bruce Brown and Obi Toppin from the Knicks.

The Pacers are off an running with a 143-120 home win over the Wizards as 5-point favorites and a 125-113 road win at Cleveland as 3-point favorites.  There's value on the Pacers are only 2.5-point home favorites to the Chicago Bulls tonight.  The Pacers rank 1st in offensive efficiency and 3rd in pace through two games.

The Bulls are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season with their lone win coming by a single point in OT at home against the Raptors where they needed a late comeback just to force OT.  The Bulls lost 104-124 as 2.5-point home favorites to OKC and 102-118 as 2.5-point road favorites at Detroit.  This is a bad Chicago team relying on a bunch of veterans that are pair their primes.  There's not much to like about this team, and Billy Donovan may be the first coach fired.

Indiana went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its final three meetings with Chicago last season.  The Bulls are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games following a road loss.  Indiana is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

15* Lakers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -2.5

Getting the Sacramento Kings as a short home favorite over the Los Angeles Lakers is a discount.  The Lakers were blasted by the Nuggets 119-107 on the road in their opener.  They needed a big 4th quarter comeback to beat the Suns 100-95 at home despite the Suns being without both Devin Booker and Bradley Beal.  The Lakers aren't hitting on all cylinders in the early going, and we'll fade them here today with LeBron James on a minutes restriction early.

The Sacramento Kings brought back 10 players that won the Pacific Division and took the Warriors to 7 games in the playoffs last year.  They brought back all five starters.  They are healthy to start the season and blasted Utah 130-114 on the road in their opener.  Now we get the chance to 'buy low' on the Kings after losing 114-122 at home to the Warriors last time out.  They simply hat an off shooting night at 43.6% while the Warriors were on fire at 55.2%.  The Lakers don't shoot it like the Warriors do.

The Kings went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Lakers last season with their lone loss coming by 2 points, and all three wins coming by 5 points or more.  The Kings are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games following a home loss.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5

I like backing teams early in the season with a lot of chemistry.  The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best young nucleus in the entire NBA.  They made the play-in round last year and are in line for bigger things this year.

The Thunder returned four starters and get a healthy Chet Holmgren at center this season.  They have key holdovers coming off the bench, plus add rookie Cason Wallace to the mix.  This is basically the same team as last year except with the additions of Holmgren and Wallace.  

They're off to a good start with a dominant 124-104 win at Chicago as 2.5-point road dogs in the opener and a 108-105 win at Cleveland as 2.5-point road dogs.  Now the Thunder get their home opener and have some of the best fans in the NBA.  You know they are going to turn out to support this team with the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets coming to town Sunday.

I think the Nuggets are being overvalued due to winning the title and are going to be fighting a championship hangover early in the season.  They were able to escape with a win over the Lakers in the opener with a big 4th quarter, and also escaped with a 108-104 win at Memphis as 5.5-point road favorites.  Memphis is way down early in the season without JA Morant while missing a few other guys to key injuries.  This will be Denver's toughest test of the young season by far.

The Thunder are 31-12 ATS in their last 43 games after allowing 105 points or less.  The Thunder are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Nuggets.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons +2.5

The Detroit Pistons are grossly undervalued to open the season.  They only had Cade Cunningham for the first 12 games last season.  Cunningham is back and paired with Jaden Ivey in the backcourt, and this team has a lot of chemistry as they bring back mostly all the same guys and have a ton of depth.

That has shown in their first two games this season as they nearly upset Miami in a 102-103 loss as 9.5-point road dogs.  Then they upset Charlotte 111-99 as 4.5-point dogs last night.  Their depth will help them a lot in these back-to-back situations, and they won't have any problem coming up with the energy tonight in their home opener in front of some excited Detroit fans ready to see this team.

The spot is much worse for the Bulls on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They needed OT to beat Toronto 104-103 as 2.5-point home favorites last night.  DeRozan played 41 minutes, Vucevic 40 minutes, White 40 minutes and LaVine 38 minutes last night.  Now LaVine has a back injury and is questionable.  The Bulls don't have near the depth that the Pistons do.  

Chicago has been overvalued as well losing by 20 at home to the Thunder as 2.5-point favorites and then barely beating a rebuilding Toronto team as short home favorites.  They should not be favored on the road here against the upstart Pistons.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -2.5

I like backing teams early in the season that have a lot of chemistry.  That's especially the case when they are facing a team with no chemistry and a lot of new faces.  That's what we have here with the Orlando Magic over the Portland Trail Blazers.

The Magic were one of the most profitable teams to back in the 2nd half of the season last year because they were healthy and formed chemistry with their young nucleus.  They returned all 5 starters from that team plus key bench players in Cole Anthony, Gary Harris and Mo Wagner.  They also have a healthy Jonathan Isaac to start the season, plus added veteran Joe Ingles.

The Magic blasted the Rockets 116-86 in the opener at home.  Now they take on a Blazers team that lost 111-123 on the road at the Clippers, and that was an even bigger blowout than the score showed as the Clippers called off the dogs up 26 points going into the 4th.

The Blazers are adjusting to life without Damian Lillard.  They are relying on newcomers Scoot Henderson, DeAndre Ayton, Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams III to try and pick up the pieces.  It's going to take some time for these guys to gel with holdovers Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons and Matisse Thybulle.  Bet the Magic Friday.

20* Warriors/Kings ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -3

I like backing teams early in the season that have a lot of chemistry.  The Kings returned 10 players from a team that won the Pacific Division last season and took the Warriors to 7 games in the playoffs.  They returned all five starters.  Now they want revenge from getting bounced in the playoffs by the Warriors, and they don't have to wait long to get it.

They host a Warriors team that is coming off a 108-104 home loss to the Phoenix Suns.  The Warriors aren't at full strength in the early going, missing Draymond Green right now with an ankle injury.  He is missed on both ends of the court, especially defensively.  Things come easier for Stephen Curry when he's out there setting screens for him, and without him the Warriors just don't run as smoothly, and too much is on Curry's shoulders.

Golden State is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games as a road dog of 6 points or less.  Bet the Kings Friday.