15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Cleveland State/Oakland OVER 172.5

Oakland is a dead nuts OVER team going 11-4 OVER in all games this season.  The Golden Grizzlies rank 40th in adjusted tempo, 55th in adjusted offense and 306th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 83.3 points per game and allowing 83.5 points per game and haven't played an OT game yet.  They've also done it against the 11th-toughest schedule in the country.

Cleveland State is also a dead nuts OVER team going 8-5 OVER in all games this season while not playing a single OT game, either.  The Vikings rank 135th in adjusted tempo and 354th in adjusted defense.  But they are a great shooting team ranking 30th in 3-point percentage (37.6%) and attempt them at the 21st-highest rate in the country on 49.5% of their possessions.

Oakland's three home games this season went 3-0 OVER going for 193 combined points with IPFW, 195 points with Toledo and 169 with Robert Morris, which ranks 309th in adjusted tempo and is an under team.  Cleveland State profiles more similarly to Toledo and IPFW.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Oakland and Cleveland State, and 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Night Line Mistake on Dallas Mavericks -7.5

The spot couldn't be worse for the Utah Jazz tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a gutting 129-125 (OT) loss at Oklahoma City against the defending champs last night.  They will have nothing left in the tank for the Dallas Mavericks when they return home tonight.

Starters Markkanen (44 minutes) and George (43 minutes) could rest tonight after playing big minutes and carrying the load last night.  Nurkic (33 minutes) is already downgraded to questionable, as is Ace Bailey.  Even if everyone played I still expect a poor performance from the Jazz, who have lost five consecutive games coming in with four of those losses coming by 9 points or more.

The Mavericks are coming off consecutive wins over the Rockets and Kings and are relatively healthy right now.  They have Davis and Flagg both balling out.  They are also a very rested team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight.  They want revenge from a 140-133 (OT) loss at Utah on December 15th in their last meeting and they will get it tonight in blowout fashion.  Bet the Mavericks Thursday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Denver/South Dakota State OVER 160.5

Denver is a perfect 14-0 OVER in all games this season as the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in each of their last 11 lined games.  This total of 160.5 is too short for a game involving the Pioneers right now.

What makes Denver such an OVER team is that they have a great offense ranking 82nd in adjusted offense and one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 361st in adjusted defense.  They are the 5th-worst defensive team in the country in adjusted defense.

South Dakota State is a perfect 5-0 OVER in its last five games overall finishing with 159 or more combined points in four of those five games.  That includes 175 combined points with Milwaukee and 170 combined points with Arizona.

The Jackrabbits rank 160th in adjusted offense but just 234th in adjusted defense.  Both teams also rank in the Top 160 in adjusted tempo.  This game figures to be yet another shootout involving the Pioneers tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Delaware/Sam Houston State OVER 141.5

Sam Houston State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bearkats are 8-3 OVER in all lined games this season.  They have played 14 games overall and have gone for 148 or more combined points in 13 of them, making for a 13-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 141.5-point total.

This total of 141.5 is way too low for a game involving the Bearkats.  They rank 38th in adjusted tempo, 25th in average length of offensive possession and 107th in adjusted offense.  They will control the tempo playing at home, which is huge in this game with Delaware.

The Blue Hens rank just 350th in adjusted tempo, which is why this total is so low.  But they will be forced to play more to Sam Houston's State's style.  We've seen them play higher-scoring games with other teams like Sam Houston State that push the tempo.  They combined for 153 points with BYU, 155 with Iona and 154 with Northridge.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Iowa State/Baylor OVER 154

Baylor is 8-4 OVER in all games this season including 6-1 OVER at home.  What makes the Bears such a dead nuts OVER team is that they rank 12th in adjusted offense but just 96th in adjusted defense.  They are also 116th in adjusted tempo.

The Bears are averaging 93.1 points per game this season including 102.9 points per game at home and haven't played an OT game all season.  They will get their points, but they will also give up a ton, especially tonight.

Iowa State is playing as fast as they ever have under T.J. Otzelberger and it has made a big difference for them.  They are an elite team, so more possessions is better for them.  They rank 127th in adjusted tempo and 55th in average length of offensive possession.

Iowa State is scoring 89.6 points per game and ranks 5th in adjusted offense.  The Cyclones are 2nd in effective FG percentage (60.7%) and 2nd in 3-point percentage (41.9%).  They will light up this weak Baylor defense tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Clippers/Knicks NBA ANNIHILATOR on New York -4.5

I love the spot for the New York Knicks tonight.  They will be max motivated coming off a season high 4-game losing streak and a 31-point loss in Detroit.  This is the perfect time to 'buy low' on the Knicks, who are now healthy outside of Josh Hart.

This is the perfect time to 'sell high' on the Clippers after going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But they played seven of those eight games at home.  They are just 4-13 SU on the road this season.

Derrick Jones Jr. was playing well during this run but got hurt and is now out.  James Harden is dealing with a shoulder injury, and they remain without Bogdan Bogdanovic.  Bet the Knicks Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +2.5

The Brooklyn Nets have quietly gone 8-6 SU in their last 14 games overall seven outright upset victories.  They are as healthy as they have been all season and playing better than most realize.  They should not be home underdogs to the struggling Orlando Magic tonight.

The Magic are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall and coming off a 120-112 upset loss at Washington as 7.5-point favorites last night.  They really miss both Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner as both are two of the most underrated players in the NBA.

Now the Magic are running on fumes playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days.  Being short-handed makes this spot that much more difficult.  The Nets come in on two days' rest and will be the much fresher team as a result.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on VCU -1.5

Saint Louis is overvalued after a 13-1 start this season against the 345th-ranked schedule in the country.  The Billikens have played just one true road game all season, and 11 of their 14 games were on their home floor.

I love fading teams to start conference play in road games when they haven't played many or any road games up to this point.  It's a shock to the system, and this will be by far and away their toughest game of the season to this point.

VCU is 11-4 this season against the 205th-ranked schedule.  The Rams went to the wire with Utah State, NC State and New Mexico in those three losses by 3, 6 and 3 points, respectively.  The only game they weren't competitive was against Vanderbilt, which is ranked 6th in KenPom and 14-0 on the season.

The Rams are 8-1 at home this season outscoring opponents by 20.9 points per game.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the Atlantic 10.  VCU is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with St. Louis.  Bet VCU Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Providence +10.5

Providence has opened Big East play with three straight nail-biting games.  After losing 113-110 (2 OT) at Butler and 72-67 at home to Seton Hall, the Friars got their first conference win in impressive fashion upsetting St. John's 77-71 as 14-point road dogs.

Now the Friars are catching double-digits again at home against the UConn Huskies tonight, and this line is too high.  They are 6-1 SU at home this season and it will be a raucous atmosphere with the Huskies coming to town.

UConn has benefited from an extremely soft Big East schedule to open with home wins over Butler and Marquette, and road wins over DePaul and Xavier.  This will be their toughest conference test yet, and I don't expect them to handle it well.  Bet Providence Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +6

I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 125-115 home loss to the Timberwolves just three days ago on January 3rd.  It was a rare loss for the Heat, who are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  That includes upset road wins in both road games at Detroit by 6 and at Atlanta by 15.

A big reason for their resurgence is a return to health, most notably getting two key role players in Jovic and Larsson back on the court.  Now Tyler Herro is expected back tonight, and the only player they are missing is Jaime Jaquez Jr.

This is a terrible spot for the Timberwolves.  They return home from a 4-game road trip that took a lot out of them.  The Timberwolves will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here, and now Anthony Edwards has been downgraded to questionable due to injury management.  When players are downgraded to questionable, more times than not they do not play.  I like Miami either way.  Bet the Heat Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Pelicans OVER 240

Two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA square off tonight when the Los Angeles Lakers visit the New Orleans Pelicans.  The Lakers rank 26th in defensive rating while the Pelicans rank 27th.  This figures to be a shootout tonight, and this total has been set too low.

The Lakers beat the Pelicans 133-121 for 254 combined points in their lone meeting this season.  The Pelicans didn't even have Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole in that contest, and both are back healthy now and dead nuts OVER players who are all offense and no defense.  The Lakers didn't have LeBron James, either.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on UCF/Oklahoma State OVER 173

Oklahoma State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Cowboys rank 7th in adjusted tempo, 30th in average length of offensive possession, 60th in adjusted offense and 95th in adjusted defense.

The Cowboys are 9-5 OVER in all games this season and have yet to play an OT game.  They are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games overall going for 161 or more combined points in all 10 games, and 170 or more combined points in seven of them.  In their last three games, they went for 182 combined points with Texas Tech, 180 with Bethune-Cookman and 183 with Fullerton.

UCF also likes to play fast ranking 109th in adjusted tempo and 35th in average length of offensive possession.  The Knights are 23rd in adjusted offense but just 88th in adjusted defense.  They won't mind running with Oklahoma State at all in what should be one of the highest-scoring games of the season given the profile of both teams.

In their first meeting last season, the Cowboys won 104-95 at home for 199 combined points.  It should be more of the same in the first meeting of 2026.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia +9.5

The Florida Gators are overrated after winning the national title last season.  They lost all their star guards off that team and just aren't nearly as good this season because of it.  They are 9-5 SU & 4-10 ATS this season, consistently laying too many points.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us tonight is asking too much.

Georgia is one of the most underrated teams in the country and vastly improved this season.  The Bulldogs are off to a 13-1 start with their lone loss coming to Clemson in OT.  In their lone road true game this season, they crushed Florida State 107-73.  Florida beat Florida sState 78-76 at home to give these teams a common opponent.

Former Florida head coach Mike White is out to get his former team, and these games tend to go down to the wire.  Four of the last five meetings were decided by 5 points or fewer.  This number is too big tonight as the Bulldogs are lacking the respect they deserve and will earn it tonight.  Bet Georgia Tuesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bowling Green/Kent State OVER 155.5

Kent State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Golden Flashes rank 20th in adjusted tempo, 44th in average length of offensive possession, 122nd in adjusted offense and just 191st in adjusted defense.  They are 91st in effective FG percentage (53.7%) on offense and 284th (54.1%) on defense.

Bowling Green also likes to play faster ranking 144th in adjusted tempo.  The Mean Green rank 27th in average length of defensive possession at 16.1 seconds allowing opponents to get shots up fast, which is something that will play right into Kent State's hands.

Bowling Green's last three games have been very high-scoring going for 201 combined points with UMass in OT in a game that was tied 86-86 at the end of regulation for 172 combined points.  They went for 176 combined points with Miami Ohio and 191 with Siena Heights.

Kent State is 8-4 OVER in all lined games this season.  The Golden Flashes and their opponents have combined for at least 161 points in 11 of their 14 games this season.  This total of 155.5 is way too low for a game involving Kent State.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Warriors/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 225.5

The Clippers are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 29th in pace and are never in a hurry.  The Warriors rank 18th in pace and 5th in defensive rating this season.  This game will be played at a snail's pace with some elite defense.

The Clippers will be without Bogdanovic and Jones Jr., and now Harden popped up on the injury report as questionable today.  They will be lacking a lot of firepower without all three of these guys if Harden sits, but I like the UNDER either way.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Warriors and Clippers with 216 or fewer combined points in four of those five meetings.  That includes a 98-79 home win by the Warriors for just 177 combined points in their first and only meeting this season.  The only game that went over went to OT.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia 76ers -14.5

This is a terrible spot for the Denver Nuggets.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 127-115 loss in Brooklyn last night.  They will also be playing their 6th consecutive road game and their 9th game in 15 days overall.

The Nuggets were already without Nikola Jokic, Cam Johnson and Jonas Valancunas due to injury.  Murray, Braun, Gordon and Hardaway Jr. all played last night against the Nets, and all four will sit tonight.  The means they will be without 7 of their top 8 scorers tonight!

The 76ers are playing their best basketball of the season right now largely due to being as healthy as they have been all year.  Maxey, Embiid, Edecombe, George, Grimes and Barlow are all healthy and playing well.  Nobody has a minutes restriction anymore.

The 76ers have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall winning 139-136 at Memphis, 123-108 at Dallas and 130-119 at New York.  The 76ers have had a lot of time off and will be playing on their 7th game in 16 days.  They will roll the short-handed Nuggets tonight.  Bet the 76ers Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Raptors OVER 233.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 17-9 OVER in their last 26 games overall finishing with 245 or more combined points in 15 of their last 25 games.  It doesn't matter if Trae Young is there or not, they still play fast, efficient offense and poor defense.

The Raptors profile as more of an OVER team right now playing more small ball without C Jakob Poeltl.  They just got RJ Barrett back from injury, and their offense is much more efficient with him running the show.

These teams just played on Saturday with the Raptors beating the Hawks 134-117 for 251 combined points.  We have 17.5 points to spare in the rematch here with this total set at 233.5.  Oddsmakers have once again failed to set this high enough.

The Raptors and Hawks have combined for at least 241 points in six of their last eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Thunder/Suns NBA ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix +10

The Phoenix Suns will be max motivated for revenge tonight after getting blown out 138-89 by the Thunder in the NBA Cup.  They had only lost 123-119 in OKC in their previous meeting.  Now the Suns get the Thunder at home this time around, where they are 11-5 SU this season.

They also face a very banged up Thunder team with Hartenstein out, plus Joe and Wallace questionable.  It's an overvalued Thunder team with the best record in the NBA.  They are coming off three straight wins against short-handed teams in the Warriors who were without Curry, Butler and Green, a Blazers team that is missing a ton of key players and a Hawks team that was without Young, Johnson and Porzingis.

The Suns are healthy and ready to go tonight.  There's a good chance they get Grayson Allen back for this one, but they have been playing well without him all season either way.  The Suns are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses both coming on the road at Golden State by 3 and at Cleveland.  They beat the Warriors, the Lakers by 24 and the Kings by 27 in their three home games during this stretch.  Bet the Suns Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +11.5

The Washington Wizards have quietly gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss to the Suns on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They beat the Raptors by 21 as 8.5-point home dogs, the Grizzlies by 4 as 8-point home dogs, upset the Bucks as 10.5-point road dogs and crushed the Nets by 20 as 3-point home favorites.

A big reason for their resurgence is the return to health of one of the most underrated young superstars in the game in Alex Sarr (17.7 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.4 BPG).  They are missing Kyshawn George (15.0 PPG), but they have seven of their top eight scorers healthy and forming a nice chemistry right now.

This is a terrible spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 125-115 win in Miami last night.  The Heat had several players get injured during the game that aided the Timberwolves in the win.

Minnesota is 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in its last five games overall with the other win aided by early injuries to Giddey and White of the Bulls as well.  They were upset by 16 by the Nets as 12-point favorites, failing to cover by 28.  They were upset by the Hawks by 24 as 5.5-point favorites, failing to cover by 29.5.  They aren't playing well right now, and they certainly should not be double-digit road favorites over the surging Wizards today.  Bet the Wizards Sunday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on LA Tech/WKU OVER 144

This total is way too short for a game involving Western Kentucky.  The Hilltoppers rank 39th in adjusted tempo and control the tempo playing at home.  They are scoring 84.5 points per game and allowing 78 points per game this season, combining to average 162.5 points per game with their opponents.

The Hilltoppers are coming off a 102-91 home win over Sam Houston State for 193 combined points.  WKU and its opponents have combined for at least 145 points in 12 of its 13 games this season, making for a 12-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 144-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Horizon League PLAY OF THE DAY on Robert Morris/Oakland OVER 161.5

Oakland is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 40th in adjusted tempo, 65th in adjusted offense and just 307th in adjusted defense.  The Golden Grizzlies are 10-4 OVER in all games this season scoring 82.5 points per game and allowing 84.2 points per game.

Robert Morris has been a solid offensive team this season scoring 77.0 points per game.  The Colonials have been much better on offense than defense, ranking 159th in adjusted offense but just 221st in adjusted defense.  Both teams should get whatever they want offensively in this high-paced shootout with the Golden Grizzlies controlling the tempo at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Celtics/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles ML -120

The Los Angeles Clippers are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with all six victories coming by 13 points or more.  That includes wins over playoff contenders in the Lakers by 15, the Rockets by 20 and the Pistons by 13.

The Clippers cannot afford to take a foot off the gas after they got off to such a rough start this season.  I expect them to keep it rolling against the Celtics, who could get the LA flu after staying in Los Angeles overnight after a road win at short-handed Sacramento on Thursday.

It will also be the 5th road game in 9 days for the Celtics as they are a tired team coming into this one.  They have feasted on an easy schedule during this road trip as the first four games came against non-playoff contenders.  This is a big step up in class for them tonight.

The Clippers also want revenge from a 121-118 road loss to the Celtics on November 16th in their first meeting this season.  They didn't even have Kawhi Leonard in that game, and he's playing at an MVP level now scoring at least 28 points in all six games during this six-game winning streak. Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Jazz/Warriors OVER 238.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  The Jazz and their opponents have combined for at least 241 points in nine of their last 10 games overall.  This total of 238.5 is too short for a game involving Utah right now.

The Jazz should get back Markkanen and/or George tonight after both sat out last game against the Clippers.  The Warriors should get back Steph Curry tonight after he sat out last night against the Thunder.  Curry is the key to their offense as they are an OVER team with him in the lineup.

The Warriors and Jazz combined for 251 points in their first meeting this season.  They also combined for 259 points in their final meeting last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin +6.5

No conference has a bigger home-court advantage than the Big Ten.  So getting 6.5 points with Wisconsin at home tonight is a tremendous value even though on paper Purdue is clearly the better team.

But this is a night game so it will be a raucous home atmosphere in favor of the Badgers, who are 8-0 SU & 5-3 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 24.0 points per game at home this season.  That includes recent wins over Marquette by 20 and Northwestern by 12.

Purdue will be playing just its 3rd true road game of the season here.  The first two came at Rutgers and at Alabama, and I think this will be their toughest test yet.  They have a recent common opponent in Marquette, who the Boilermakers also beat by 20 at home.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Hawks/Raptors OVER 232.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 16-9 OVER in their last 25 games overall finishing with 245 or more combined points in 14 of their last 24 games.  It doesn't matter if Trae Young is there or not, they still play fast, efficient offense and poor defense.

I think this total has been set lower than it should be due to the Hawks coming off a low-scoring game against the Knicks last night.  But the Knicks didn't have Towns and were lost offensively without him.  The Knicks shot 9-of-42 (21%) from 3 and 37% from the field without him.

The Raptors profile as more of an OVER team right now playing more small ball without C Jakob Poeltl.  They just got RJ Barrett back from injury, and their offense is much more efficient with him running the show.

This total has also been set too low due to the Raptors coming off a pair of unders against the Nuggets and Magic.  But the Nuggets were without four starters including Jokic, while the Magic were without two starters in Wagner and Suggs.

The Hawks and Raptors have combined for at least 241 points in five of their last seven meetings.  This total of 232.5 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big West PLAY OF THE DAY on UC-Irvine/CS-Fullerton OVER 160.5

Cal State Fullerton is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Titans rank 2nd in adjusted tempo and 3rd in average length of offensive possession.  They also rank just 247th in adjusted defense.  The Titans will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

Fullerton is 9-4 OVER in all games this season scoring 88.2 points per game and allowing 86.9 points per game, averaging 175.1 combined points per game and haven't gone to OT once this season.  Fullerton and its opponents have combined for at least 173 points in five consecutive games coming in.  This total of 160.5 is too short for a game involving the Titans.

UC-Irvine is 3-0 OVER in its last three games coming in.  The Anteaters have scored at least 81 points in three of their last five games, and I fully expect them to top 80 points tonight as they will be more than happy to run with Fullerton in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Heat +2.5

The Miami Heat have gotten healthy and are playing their best basketball of the season as a result.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They upset the Hawks by 15 as 3-point road dogs and the Pistons by 6 as 4.5-point road dogs, while also blowing out the Nuggets by 24 as 1.5-point home dogs and the Pacers by 26 as 6.5-point home favorites.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are struggling right now going 1-3 SU in their last four games overall.  That includes a 16-point home loss to the Nets as 12-point favorites.  Their only win came against the Bulls, where both Giddey and White got hurt early in the game and the Bulls had no chance without them.  The Timberwolves are coming off a 126-102 road loss to the Hawks as 6-point favorites.

The Heat are 12-5 SU at home this season with one of the better home-court advantages in the NBA.  They have the bigs in Adebayo and Ware who can match up with the Timberwolves' trio of Gobert, Reid and Randle.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Heat Saturday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Akron/Miami Ohio OVER 174

Akron is a dead nuts OVER team going 8-3 OVER in all games this season.  The Zips rank 30th in adjusted tempo, 19th in average length of offensive possession, 12th in adjusted offense and just 208th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 97.1 points per game this season.

Miami Ohio is also a dead nuts OVER team going 9-2 OVER in all games this season.  The Redhawks rank 43rd in adjusted tempo, 59th in average length of offensive possession, 73rd in adjusted offense and just 174th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 94.9 points per game this season.

This game will be played at a break-neck pace and will feature elite offense and poor defense on both ends.  The Redhawks rank 8th in effective FG percentage (60%) and 6th in 3-point shooting (41%).  The Zips rank 5th in effective FG percentage (60.8%) and 7th in 3-point percentage (40.6%).  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on UNC/SMU OVER 156.5

SMU is a dead nuts OVER team going 8-5 OVER in all games this season.  The Mustangs and their opponents have combined for at least 157 or more combined points in 12 of their 13 games this season.  This total of 156.5 is very short for a game involving the Mustangs.

UNC just got G Seth Trimble (15.6 PPG) back from injury and he has only played in five games all season.  Trimble is one of the fastest guards in the country and gets the fast break going for the Tar Heels.  They have been a slow plodding team without him, but with him their offense has flourished.

The Mustangs rank 122nd in adjusted tempo, 25th in average length of offensive possession and 27th in adjusted offense.  They will control the tempo playing at home today, and I expect both teams to reach 80 points in this one.  UNC is scoring 81.2 PPG while SMU is scoring 91.1 PPG this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on SMU ML -105

SMU is 9-0 SU at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The Mustangs are outscoring opponents by 22.4 points per game at home this season.

UNC will be playing just its 2nd true road game of the season.  I like fading teams who have played zero or one true road game at the time conference play starts because they aren't used to it, and it's a shock to the system dealing with a hostile road crowd like this one will be.  Bet SMU on the Money Line Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -12.5

This is a terrible spot for the short-handed Sacramento Kings playing without their two best players in Sabonis and LaVine.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 120-106 home loss to the Boston Celtics last night.

The Kings are really struggling, going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their three games overall with blowout losses to the Lakers by 24, the Clippers by 41 and the Celtics by 14.  They will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days tonight, so they will have nothing left in the tank for the Suns.

Phoenix had yesterday off and will be motivated to bounce back from a road loss to Cleveland.  That ended a 4-game winning streak for them and a 6-game ATS winning streak.  This is one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They should get Grayson Allen back tonight as he was at shootaround, so the only player they are missing is Jalen Green, who they have been without for basically the entire season.  Bet the Suns Friday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska -2

Nebraska is off to a 13-0 start this season as one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Huskers have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, and that will be on display tonight as they host Michigan State in their Big Ten home opener.

The Huskers have won 17 straight games dating back to the NIT last season.  They went on the road and upset Illinois 83-80 as 9-point dogs which followed up their 90-60 home win over Wisconsin as 2.5-point favorites to move to 2-0 in Big Ten play.

Michigan State has only played one true road game all season, and it was a lackluster 76-72 road win at Penn State as 12.5-point favorites.  The Spartans will be in over their heads here in what will be their toughest test of the season.  Bet Nebraska Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Hornets/Bucks OVER 231.5

The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball is healthy and running the offense.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time with Ball, Bridgers, Miller and Kneuppel all expected to go tonight.  These four all average at least 19.3 points per game and are developing a nice chemistry.  They are without their most important defender in C Ryan Kalkbrenner (1.8 BPG) right now so they have to play more small ball.

The Bucks are certainly more of an OVER team with Giannis (28.9 PPG) back and healthy.  They just beat the Hornets 123-103 for 236 combined points in his return to the lineup two games ago.  The Hornets went on to go for 257 combined points with the Warriors in their next game.  It should be more of the same tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Hawks/Knicks NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 245.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 16-8 OVER in their last 24 games overall finishing with 245 or more combined points in 14 of their last 23 games.  It doesn't matter if Trae Young is there or not, they still play fast, efficient offense.  Jalen Johnson and Kristaps Porzingis just returned to the lineup, too.

The Knicks are 4-0 OVER in their last four games and 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games.  They just went for 266 combined points with the Spurs, 255 with the Pelicans, 253 with the Hawks and 250 with the Cavs in their last four games coming in.  This total of 245.5 is pretty short for a game involving these two teams right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Pacers OVER 237.5

The Spurs are more of an OVER team without Victor Wembenyama, their best defender and probably the best defender in the NBA.  They have to play more small ball without him and they also play faster not trying to involve him on offense.

The Spurs went 6-1 OVER in their seven games without Wembenyama leading into the NBA Cup semifinals.  They went for 237 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  They lost Wembenyama to injury in the 1H against the Knicks last time out, and came from way behind to beat the Knicks 134-132 for 234.5 combined points.

The Pacers are getting healthier and playing faster, more efficient offense as a result.  They are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 245 points with Houston, 258 with Miami and 262 with Boston.  Nesmith and McConnell are back healthy to join Siakim, Mathurin and Nembhard as the Pacers are now putting a respectable offensive team on the floor.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Washington Wizards ML +100

This is a terrible spot for the struggling, banged up Brooklyn Nets.  They are coming off consecutive blowout home losses to the Rockets by 26 and the Warriors by 13.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after that loss to the Rockets last night, and they will be short-handed tonight.

The Nets will be without their top three scorers in Michael Porter Jr. (25.8 PPG), Cam Thomas (21.4 PPG) and Nicolas Claxton (13.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 4.2 APG).  I give them no shot of keeping this game competitive with the Washington Wizards without these guys.

The Wizards have quietly gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their only loss to the Suns on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They beat the Raptors by 21 as 8.5-point home dogs, the Grizzlies by 4 as 8-point home dogs and upset the Bucks as 10.5-point road dogs.

A big reason for their resurgence is the return to health of one of the most underrated young superstars in the game in Alex Sarr (17.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 2.3 BPG).  They are missing Kyshawn George (15.0 PPG), but they have seven of their top eight scorers healthy and forming a nice chemistry right now.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Sam Houston/WKU OVER 165.5

Sam Houston State is a dead nuts OVER team going 7-2 OVER in all lined games this season.  The Bearkats and their opponents have combined for at least 162 points in seven of those nine games.

What makes them an OVER team is ranking 36th in adjusted tempo and 30th in average length of offensive possession.  They are a solid offensive team ranking 98th in adjusted offense and 85th in 3-point percentage.

Western Kentucky also profiles as an OVER team and will gladly run with the Bearkats.  The Hilltoppers rank 42nd in adjusted tempo and 70th in average length of offensive possession.  They will attack the rim, and Sam Houston ranks 333rd in 2-point percentage defense at 58.2%.  WKU ranks 293rd in defending the 3, and the Bearkats want to shoot a ton of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Jazz/Clippers OVER 232

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  The Jazz and their opponents have combined for at least 241 points in nine consecutive games overall.  This total of 232 is too short for a game involving Utah right now.

The Clippers have really upped the tempo during their 5-game winning streak and are thriving offensively right now.  They will certainly stay hot here against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA and hang a big number to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 236 or more combined points in all four.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UCSB/Fullerton OVER 157.5

Cal State Fullerton is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Titans rank 4th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in average length of offensive possession.  They also rank just 258th in adjusted defense.  The Titans will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

Fullerton is 8-4 OVER in all games this season scoring 87.7 points per game and allowing 87.1 points per game, averaging 174.8 combined points per game and haven't gone to OT once this season.  Fullerton and its opponents have combined for at least 173 points in four consecutive games coming in.  This total of 157.5 is too short for a game involving the Titans.

UCSB is an elite offensive team ranking 88th in adjusted offense, 81st in effective FG percentage and 22nd in 3-point percentage.  The Gauchos are a terrible defensive team, ranking 250th in adjusted defense, 276th in effective FG percentage D and 353rd in 3-point percentage.  This game really sets up for a shootout tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Murray State/Illinois-Chicago OVER 159.5

Murray State is a dead nuts OVER team this season going 9-5 OVER in all games with 162 or more combined points in 10 of their 14 games this season.  They haven't played a single OT game, either.  This total of 159.5 is too short for a game involving the Racers.

Racers they are, indeed.  They rank 24th in adjusted tempo and 63rd in average length of offensive possession.  They are 63rd in adjusted offense, 34th in effective FG percentage and 43rd in 3-point percentage.  But they are just 165th in adjusted defense.

Illinois-Chicago has been better on offense (190th) than defense (216th) this season.  They went for 162 combined points with Detroit, 170 with High Point, 162 with Robert Morris and 171 with Belmont, a team that profiles similarly to Murray State.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Mavs OVER 229.5

The Dallas Mavericks are a sneaky OVER team this season.  They rank 6th in pace and most don't realize how much faster they are playing this season.  They are also going more small ball, and having Anthony Davis back healthy really makes them flourish offensively.

The Mavericks are 11-3-1 OVER in their last 15 games overall going for 230 or more combined points in 10 of their last 11 games overall, making for a 10-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 229.5-point total.  This total of 229.5 is too short for a game involving the Mavericks right now.

The 76ers are as healthy as they have been all season and it is really making a difference for them offensively.  They are coming off a 139-136 (OT) win over the Grizzlies in a game that was tied 128-128 at the end of regulation for 256 combined points.  They have Maxey, George, Embiid, Edgecombe, Grimes and Barlow all healthy right now and playing.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 234 or more combined points in all three.  That includes a 121-114 win by the 76ers for 235 combined points in their first meeting this season on December 20th a couple weeks ago.  The Mavs shot 17% from 3 and the 76ers shot 30% from 3, so both teams shot poorly meaning there's a lot of room for improvement in the shooting department in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans PK

The Chicago Bulls just lost their two most important players to injury in a 136-101 home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves last time out.  Josh Giddey (19.2 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 9.0 APG) and Coby White (19.2 PPG, 4.7 APG) both left the game with injuries.  Giddey is going to miss at least two weeks, while White is out for at least this game.

The Bulls just aren't going to be able to produce much offensive without their two most important offensive players.  They certainly won't be able to hang with the Pelicans, who have quietly put together an elite offense in recent weeks and are very healthy right now.

I love the spot for the Pelicans, too.  They are coming off four consecutive losses against three of the best teams in the NBA in the Cavs, Suns (twice) and Knicks.  This is a big step down in class for them, and they went 5-0 SU in their previous five games prior to this skid, including a 114-104 win in Chicago.  

That win over the Bulls improved New Orleans to 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Chicago.  The Pelicans are motivated to get back on track, while the Bulls are down in the dumps right now realizing their season is in jeopardy without their two best players.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UMKC/Denver OVER 157.5

Denver is a perfect 12-0 OVER in all games this season as the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in each of their last nine lined games.  This total of 157.5 is too short for a game involving the Pioneers right now.

What makes Denver such an OVER team is that they have a great offense ranking 98th in adjusted offense and one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 360th in adjusted defense.  They are the 6th-worst defensive team in the country in adjusted defense.

UMKC lights to push the pace ranking 91st in adjusted tempo which will help us cash this OVER ticket.  The Roos have gone for 177, 156, 170 and 169 combined points in their last four games coming into this one.  This has shootout written all over it today folks.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Hawks OVER 242.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 16-7 OVER in their last 23 games overall finishing with 245 or more combined points in 14 of their last 22 games.  This total of 242.5 is too short for a game involving the Hawks right now.

The Hawks just went for 269 combined points with the Thunder last time out despite playing without Trae Young, Jalen Johnson and Kristaps Porzingis, who are all dead nuts OVER players for them.  Now Johnson and Porzingis return to the lineup today, and Young is questionable.

The Timberwolves are rolling offensively scoring 136 points against the Bulls and 138 against the Nuggets in two of their last three games.  They will have no problem getting in a shootout with the Hawks today.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Hornets OVER 232.5

Steph Curry is back healthy for the Warriors and La'Melo Ball is back healthy for the Hornets.  Both are dead nuts OVER players as both their offenses run much faster and much more efficiently with them in the lineup.  This total of 232.5 is too short today.

The Warriors are 2-0-1 OVER in their last three games overall.  They went for 242 combined points with the Mavericks and 244 with the Raptors at the end of regulation.  The Hornets and their opponents have gone for at least 235 combined points in three of their last four games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Santa Clara/Portland OVER 155.5

Santa Clara is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games overall going for 158 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  The only team they didn't go for at least 158 with was North Texas, which is a dead nuts under team ranking 335th in tempo, 268th in offense and 45th in defense.

What makes Santa Clara an OVER team is ranking 104th in tempo, 59th in offense and 67th in 3-point rate.  They are also a very good passing team ranking 28th in assist rate.

Portland ranks 69th in adjusted tempo and will push the pace at home.  The Pilots are also a good passing team ranking 22nd in assist rate.  This game will features some great offense and poor defense and this total of 155.5 is too short as a result.  

Portland is 6-3 OVER in its last nine games.  The Pilots and their opponents have combined for at least 163 points in seven of their last 10 games overall.  This total of 155.5 is too short for a game involving the Pilots, too.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Jazz OVER 240

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  They are especially an OVER team at home where they dictate pace and force opponents to run with them.

The Jazz are 14-4 OVER in all home games this season averaging 256.2 combined points per game with their opponents.  The Jazz and their opponents have combined for at least 241 points in eight consecutive games overall.  This total of 240 is too short for a game involving Utah.

The Boston Celtics are one of the most 3-point-happy teams in the NBA attempting 42.8 attempts per game.  The Jazz rank up there as well at 39.6 attempts per game.  That's going to create long rebounds and easy fast break opportunities for both teams.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Louisville/Cal OVER 159.5

Louisville is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 45th in adjusted tempo, 12th in average length of offensive possession, 7th in adjusted offense and 1st in 3-point rate.  The Cardinals are scoring 91.6 points per game, averaging 17.1 points per game more than their opponents typically allow on average this season.

Ryan Conwell (19.2 PPG) is an elite scorer, and now the Cardinals get Mikel Brown Jr. (16.6 PPG) back from injury after a 2-game absence.  They will have all hands on deck tonight, and they will hang a big number on California to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.

California has played a lot of teams that play slower this season which has kept their combined scores lower than they should be.  But the Golden Bears faced a team that profiles similarly to Louisville earlier this season in Kansas State, and that game saw 195 combined points.  The Cardinals are by far the best offensive team they have faced all season.  They will be forced to play faster trying to keep up.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Cavs/Spurs NBC No-Brainer on OVER 243

De'Aron Fox participated in shootaround today which is a good sign he'll return to the lineup.  The Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team with him in the lineup due to what he brings offensively with his ability to push the pace and get easy shots for teammates.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall and that is largely due to getting healthy as well.  They went for 250 combined points with New York, 259 with New Orleans, 271 with Charlotte and 261 with Chicago.

This is a rematch from December 5th earlier this month when the Cavs won 130-117 over the Spurs for 247 combined points.  This game only saw 48 points in the 4th quarter so it could have easily been even more high-scoring.  The Cavs shot 31% from 3 and the Spurs 35%, so it's not like either team shot lights out.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Heat OVER 245

We have two dead nuts OVER teams squaring off tonight with the Denver Nuggets visiting the Miami Heat.  The Heat are an OVER team because they rank 1st in pace, while the Nuggets are an OVER team because they rank 1st in offensive rating and 20th in defensive rating.

The Nuggets are 13-3 OVER in their last 16 games overall.  In their last two road games, they went for 261 combined points at Dallas and 253 combined points at Orlando.  It will be more of the same tonight against the Miami Heat.

The Heat are as healthy as they have been in a long time and coming off 142 points against the Pacers and 126 against the Hawks.  They have both Larsson and Jovic back in the lineup and these are two playmakers offensively that they have been missing.  They combined for 35 points against the Pacers and 31 against the Hawks.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +6

The Brooklyn Nets have quietly gone 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall with upset wins at Minnesota by 16 as 12-point dogs, at Philadelphia by 8 as 9-point dogs, vs. Toronto by 15 as 3.5-point dogs, vs. Milwaukee by 45 as 1.5-point dogs, at Chicago by 10 as 8-point dogs and vs. Charlotte by 13 as 4.5-point dogs.  They also beat New Orleans by 18 as 3.5-point home favorites.  They are grossly undervalued right now.

This is a terrible spot for the Golden State Warriors.  They are coming off a 141-127 (OT) loss at Toronto last night and will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Even though both Curry and Butler are expected to play tonight, I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Nets, who had yesterday off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.

Curry played 41 minutes last night and Butler played 37 minutes.  The Warriors have been awful on the road all season going 6-12 SU & 7-11 ATS.  They should not be laying 6 points to the Nets, who will likely win this game outright as well.  Bet the Nets Monday.

15* CBB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Cornell/Michigan State OVER 156.5

Cornell is a dead nuts OVER team going 7-3 OVER in all games this season including 6-2 OVER in all games played away from home.  The Big Red and their opponents have combined for at least 158 points in 10 of their 11 games this season.  This total of 156.5 is too short for a game involving Cornell.

What makes the Big Red such an OVER team is they rank 18th in adjusted tempo and 8th in average length of offensive possession.  They are snipers on offense ranking 69th in adjusted offense and terrible on defense ranking 332nd in adjusted defense.  They rank 8th in effective FG percentage on offense and 4th in 3-point percentage.

Michigan State is going to hang a big number on Cornell to pave the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.  The Spartans have scored at least 79 points against all teams not named Arkansas, UNC, Iowa, Duke and Penn State.  They will easily top 80 points in this game, and Cornell will do their best to keep up in a shootout and keep pushing the pace for 40 minutes.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Wizards OVER 240

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 8th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time and their offense thrives with Alex Sarr (18.2 PPG) in the lineup.

The Wizards are coming off a 138-117 home win over the Raptors for 255 combined points.  They just recently played the Grizzlies and beat them 130-122 for 252 combined points on December 20th.  Neither team shot the lights out either as the Wizards shot 47.5% and the Grizzlies 45%.

The Grizzlies now have JA Morant back in the lineup who they didn't have in that first meeting with the Wizards.  Morant is a dead nuts OVER player providing a lot on the offensive end including extra pace, but nothing on defense.  The Grizzlies have scored at least 119 points in six of their last eight games including 125 and 137 in their last two.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 252 combined points in each of the last two meetings.  This total of 240 is too short tonight for two teams that rank inside the Top 10 in pace.  Bet he OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -6.5

The Boston Celtics are a better team than most people realize this season.  They are 19-11 SU & 17-13 ATS while ranking 4th in the NBA in net rating (+7), trailing only the Thunder, Rockets and Nuggets in that department.  So they have consistently been the best team in the East even ahead of the Knicks.

The Celtics are 14-4 SU & 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall and have stayed remarkably healthy with nobody on the injury report currently.  They have been at their best on the road during this stretch going 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  They won by 18 at Indiana and by 16 at Toronto in their last two road games.

The Portland Trail Blazers are a mess right now due to to all their injuries.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall which have all come at home.  They lost by 8 to Detroit, by 4 to Orlando and by 16 to the short-handed Clippers.

Avidja and Sharpe are solid players, but the Blazers are really missing a point guard without Jrue Holiday and Scoot Henderson.  They are also without Jerami Grant and Robert Williams.  Avidja and Sharpe are being asked to do too much of the ball-handling and their offense is a mess.  They have scored 106 or fewer points in four consecutive games now.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Fullerton/SMU OVER 173.5

SMU is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Mustangs rank 118th in adjusted tempo, 24th in average length of offensive possession, 33rd in adjusted offense and just 78th in adjusted defense.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall including a 99-82 home win over Central Arkansas last time out for 181 combined points.  They have scored at least 87 points in nine of their 12 games this season.

What makes CS-Fullerton a dead nuts OVER team is playing at a break-neck pace, ranking 4th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in average length of offensive possession.  The Titans are also better offensively than they are defensively, ranking 240th in adjusted defense.

Fullerton is 6-2 OVER in its last eight games overall.  The Titans and their opponents have combined for at least 182 points in six of their last nine games overall.  So this total of 173.5 is actually pretty short for a game involving Fullerton.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Colorado +15.5

The Colorado Buffaloes won't have their normal home-court advantage today with students home for Christmas Break.  They also won't have it due to playing another team from Colorado here in Northern Colorado, which will be the more motivated team to prove their chops against a Power 4 opponent.

Colorado has been grossly overvalued going 3-2 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games.  The Buffaloes only beat Cal Baptist by 8 as 12.5-point favorites, lost at Colorado State by 5, only beat Portland State by 11 as 16-point home favorites and lost on a neutral to Stanford by 9 as 3-point favorites.

We saw Cal Baptist and Portland State take Colorado to the wire on the road, and Northern Colorado is better than both of those teams.  The Bears are 9-3 this season with their 3 losses coming by 1, 7 and 11 points.  That 11-point loss was impressive because it came on the road at Texas Tech as 25-point dogs in their last road games.  If they can hang with Texas Tech, they can certainly hang with Colorado.  Bet Northern Colorado Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +11

The Brooklyn Nets have quietly gone 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall with upset wins at Philadelphia by 8 as 9-point dogs, vs. Toronto by 15 as 3.5-point dogs, vs. Milwaukee by 45 as 1.5-point dogs, at Chicago by 10 as 8-point dogs and vs. Charlotte by 13 as 4.5-point dogs.  They also beat New Orleans by 18 as 3.5-point home favorites.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are coming off a gutting 142-138 (OT) loss to the Denver Nuggets on Christmas Day.  I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and with the way the Timberwolves are playing right now they have no business being double-digit favorites over the Nets.

The Timberwolves have been grossly overvalued all season going 12-19 ATS in all games.  They tend to play to the level of their competition, which is why they have just two wins in their last 17 games by more than 11 points, and those came by 13 and 14 points.  They just aren't blowing anyone out, and they won't be blowing out the Nets tonight, either.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Bucks/Bulls OVER 235

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  The Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season and showing how potent they can be offensively when that's the case.

The Bulls are 5-0 in the last four games scoring 127 and 136 against Cleveland and 152 and 126 against Atlanta.  They went for 249, 302 and 261 combined points in their last three games prior to last night's 109-102 win over the 76ers where neither team shot it well.

I expect this game against the Bucks to be much more high-scoring, especially with Giannis Antetokounmpo (28.9 PPG) making his much-anticipated return from a calf injury.  They are fully healthy everywhere else and a potent offensive team when that's the case.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Spurs OVER 242.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  The Jazz are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 247 or more combined points in all seven games.  This total of 242.5 is pretty short for a game involving the Jazz right now.

The Spurs will have no problem running with them.  The Spurs and their opponents have combined for at least 237 points in nine of their last 14 games overall.  The Spurs and Jazz have combined for 243 and 244 points in their last two meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Pelicans OVER 237

The Pelicans are 10-5 OVER in their last 15 games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 237 points at the end of regulation in 10 of those 15 games.  The Pelicans rank 9th in pace and 27th in defensive rating.

New Orleans has really been an OVER team at home.  Indeed, the Pelicans are 11-3 OVER in their last 14 home games going for 241 or more combined points in eight of their last 12 home games.  This total of 237 is too short for a game involving the Pelicans at home, especially with their offense taking off even more since getting Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole back healthy in recent games.

The Suns are coming off a pair of OVERS combining for 235 points at Golden State and 240 points at home against the Lakers.  The Suns are playing a pressing style for four quarters that could give the Pelicans troubles with turnovers and quick buckets for the Suns in transition.  That style will also up the tempo in this game overall, which the Pelicans have no problem with.

This is a rematch from a 115-108 win by the Suns last night in New Orleans for just 223 combined points.  The pace was there for the OVER, but the shooting was abysmal.  Phoenix shot 8-of-40 (20%) from 3, while New Orleans shot 5-of-25 (20%) from 3 and missed 17 free throws.  I have to think both teams will shoot much better in the rematch tonight and this thing will sail OVER 237 combined points as a result.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Jazz OVER 243.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  They are really an OVER team at home where they dictate pace, which is what they'll do tonight against the Detroit Pistons, forcing them to get into a run-and-gun game with them.

The Jazz are 13-4 OVER in their 17 home games this season averaging 255.9 combined points per game at home.  Their last four home games have been ridiculously high-scoring combining for 265 points with the Grizzlies, 255 with the Magic, 278 with the Lakers and 273 with the Mavs.  This total of 243.5 is actually pretty short for a game involving Utah at home.

The Pistons are coming off a 136-127 road win at Sacramento for 263 combined points.  The Pistons won't mind getting in a shootout with the Jazz tonight as they are the better team, so more possessions is good for them.  Both teams are also very healthy coming into this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Suns/Pelicans OVER 238.5

The Pelicans are 10-4 OVER in their last 14 games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 237 points at the end of regulation in 10 of those 14 games.  The Pelicans rank 9th in pace and 27th in defensive rating.

New Orleans has really been an OVER team at home.  Indeed, the Pelicans are 11-2 OVER in their last 13 home games going for 241 or more combined points in eight of their last 11 home games.  This total of 238.5 is too short for a game involving the Pelicans at home, especially with their offense taking off even more since getting Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole back healthy in recent games.

The Suns are coming off a pair of OVERS combining for 235 points at Golden State and 240 points at home against the Lakers.  The Suns are playing a pressing style for four quarters that could give the Pelicans troubles with turnovers and quick buckets for the Suns in transition.  That style will also up the tempo in this game overall, which the Pelicans have no problem with.

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between the Pelicans and Suns.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Bulls OVER 239.5

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  The Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season and showing how potent they can be offensively when that's the case.

The Bulls are 4-0 in the last four games scoring 127 and 136 against Cleveland and 152 and 126 against Atlanta.  They went for 249, 302 and 261 combined points in their last three games, so this total of 239.5 is actually pretty short for a game involving Chicago right now.

The Bulls should stay hot against the 76ers, who won't mind getting in a shootout with them tonight.  The 76ers also come in very healthy with Maxey, George, Edgecombe, Barlow and Grimes all expected to play.  Embiid is questionable.  The 76ers have the firepower with all these guys healthy to keep up with the Bulls in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls ML +100

The Chicago Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season right now.  The result has been a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS run in their last four games.  After beating the Cavs 127-111 as 5.5-point home dogs, they backed it up by beating the Cavs 136-125 as 8-point road dogs in the rematch.  After beating the Hawks 152-150 as 2-point road favorites, they backed it up with a 126-123 road win at Atlanta as 3.5-point dogs.

Now they take on a struggling Philadelphia 76ers team that is coming off a 114-106 home loss to the Nets as 9.5-point favorites.  They have the 76ers' number, too, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings while outscoring the 76ers by a combined 64 points in those three wins.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Bulls on the Money Line Friday.

20* Rockets/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on OVER 230.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are a perfect 11-0 OVER in their 11 home games this season.  Los Angeles home games are averaging 244.1 combined points per game.  It looks as though the Lakers will get Luka Doncic back as he has been upgraded to questionable, while Austin Reaves and LeBron are both healthy.  It hasn't mattered who has been in the lineup the Lakers have been a dead nuts OVER team all season, especially at home.

Houston is the 2nd-best road OVER team in the NBA.  The Rockets are 12-5 OVER in all road games averaging 235.3 combined points per game.  The OVER is 6-1 in Rockets last seven games overall with 231 or more combined points in five of those seven games.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 234, 254 and 249 combined points in the three OVERS.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Thunder UNDER 233.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 3rd meeting between the Spurs and Thunder since the NBA Cup semifinals on December 13th.  These teams know each inside and out, and points will be very hard to come by tonight.

The Spurs upset the Thunder 111-109 for 220 combined points in that NBA Cup semifinal on December 13th.  The Spurs backed it up with a 130-110 home win over the Thunder for 240 combined points on December 23rd just two days ago.  Both teams shot lights out with the Thunder shooting 54% overall and 40% from 3-point range, while the Spurs shot 57% overall and 44% from 3-point range.  They aren't going to shoot that well again.

The Spurs and Thunder have combined for 220 or fewer points in four of their last six meetings.  The Thunder have been dominant defensively at home allowing just 103.9 points per game.  I fully expect them to shut down the Spurs in this rematch and to lead the way in us cashing this UNDER ticket.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -9

I love the spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder on Christmas Day.  They are 26-4 this season with two of those losses coming to the San Antonio Spurs within the last two weeks.  They lost 111-109 in the NBA Cup semifinal and 130-110 in the rematch in San Antonio on December 23rd just two days ago.  It's safe to say the Thunder will be max motivated for revenge.

I like the Thunder's chances in their first home meeting with the Spurs this season.  The Thunder are 14-0 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this season outscoring opponents by a whopping 19.3 points per game.  Their last four home games have been particularly dominant beating the Grizzlies by 16, the Clippers by 21, the Suns by 49 and the Mavericks by 21.

While the Thunder will be max motivated, I think this is the ultimate letdown spot for the Spurs.  They just beat the Thunder twice so what more do they have to prove?  I think they relax here and get rocked.  In that 130-110 win two days ago, the Spurs shot 57% from the field and 44% from 3-point range while attempting 17 more FT than OKC.  None of that is going to even come close to happening again here two days later.

The last three meetings in OKC have not been close with the Thunder winning by 12, 38 and 36 points over the Spurs.  The Thunder have the best home-court advantage in the NBA and it will be a raucous crowd for them on Christmas Day.  OKC is also as healthy as it has been in a long time and primed for a big effort as a result.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -1

The Milwaukee Bucks have more talent than they get credit for without Giannis.  Porter Jr., Rollins, Kuzma, Turner, Portis and Green are all healthy and doing more to try and get by without him.  They just took the Timberwolves to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 11.5-point dogs, and they will be motivated for a win tonight against the Indiana Pacers.

I think Milwaukee has more talent than Indiana, which is 6-23 SU this season and currently without Haliburton, Toppin, Nesmith, Sheppard and Jackson with McConnell questionable.  The Pacers are 0-5 SU in their last six games overall including a 19-point road loss to New Orleans and a 19-point home loss to Washington.

The spot really favors the Bucks, who had yesterday off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  The Pacers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 103-95 loss in Boston last night.  They will also be playing their 4th game in 6 days.  Siakam, Mathurin and Nembhard who are shouldering all the load right now all played at least 36 minutes last night.  They won't have anything left in the tank for the Bucks tonight.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pelicans/Cavs OVER 239

The Pelicans are 9-4 OVER in their last 13 games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 237 points at the end of regulation in nine of those 13 games.  The Pelicans rank 9th in pace and 27th in defensive rating.

The Pelicans and Mavs combined for 232 points last night despite a terrible shooting night for both teams.  The Mavs shot 10-of-33 (30%) from 3-point range and 11-of-21 (51%) from the line.  The Pelicans shot 8-of-34 (24%) from 3-point range.  The pace was there for an OVER, but the shooting wasn't.

The pace will be there tonight against the Cavaliers, who rank 8th in pace and 10th in offensive rating.  The Cavs are coming off a 139-132 home win over the Hornets last night for 271 combined points.  They also went for 261 combined points with the Bulls the game prior.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Pelicans and Cavs.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +9.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have quietly gone 10-1 ATS in their 11 games overall and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall to be one of the best covering teams in the NBA over the last month.  They have gotten healthy and they are proving they have the offense to compete with almost anyone.

Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole are back healthy to join Trey Murphy, Derik Queen and company for a very talented offensive lineup.  The Pelicans have won five straight with a 23-point home win over Portland, a 10-point road win at Chicago, a 5-point upset home win over Houston, a 19-point home win over the Pacers and a 6-point home win over the Mavs.

The Pelicans are a deep team that can handle these back-to-back situations better than most.  The Cavaliers are not a deep team this season largely due to injuries.  They remain without Evan Mobley and Max Strus.

The Cavaliers have been one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA this season going 8-22 ATS in their 30 games.  They are 2-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games with their two wins coming by 4 as 17-point favorites over the Wizards and by 7 as 9.5-point favorites over the Hornets.  They aren't blowing anyone out, and asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us against the red hot Pelicans is asking too much.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Hawks OVER 252.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams who are all offense and no defense square off Tuesday when the Chicago Bulls visit the Atlanta Hawks.  The Bulls rank 2nd in pace and 24th in defensive rating, while the Hawks rank 5th in pace and 18th in defensive rating.

The Hawks recently got Trae Young back healthy and he is the ultimate OVER player.  The OVER is 6-1 in Hawks last seven games overall going for 247 or more combined points in four of those seven games.  That includes 257 or more combined points four times.

Chicago is as healthy as it has been all season and thriving offensively as a result.  The Bulls have scored 152, 136 and 127 points in their last three games coming in.  The 152 came in a 152-150 win over the Hawks on Sunday for 302 combined points.

So we are basically getting 50 points to work with here in the rematch with this total set at 252.5.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 251 or more combined points in four of those five.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Washington Wizards +5.5

The spot really favors the Washington Wizards tonight.  They had yesterday off, while the Hornets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 139-132 loss in Cleveland last night.  I question how much the Hornets will have left in the tank here tonight, and they could also choose to rest some guys including La'Melo Ball, who has been battling through an ankle injury all season.

The Wizards are playing a lot better since getting their best player in Alex Sarr (18.9 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 1.9 BPG) healthy and back in the lineup.  The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with upset road wins over Indiana by 19 and Memphis by 8.  Their only losses came by 4 to Cleveland and twice to San Antonio.

The Hornets are 5-13 SU in their last 18 games with two of those wins coming in OT.  This is a team that's hard to trust to lay points against anyone, even the Wizards.  That's especially the case with the Wizards in the better rest spot tonight and playing some of their best basketball of the season.  Bet the Wizards Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 231.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are the best defensive team in the NBA by a wide margin.  They are 1st in defensive rating at 6.5 points per 100 possessions allowed better than the 2nd place Pistons.  They went for 219 combined points with Minnesota, 223 with the Clippers and 220 with the Spurs in their last three games overall.  This total of 231.5 is too high for a game involving the Thunder right now, especially when you consider they will be without Chet Holmgren tonight.

Memphis and its opponents have combined for 226 or fewer points in six of its last nine games overall.  This total of 231.5 is very high for a game involving the Grizzlies right now.  That's especially the case considering they will be without JA Morant tonight.  They just don't have much offensive firepower right now, and I would be surprised if they even reached 100 points against this elite OKC defense tonight.  

The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Thunder and Grizzlies.  They combined for just 214 points in their lone meeting this season, and they have combined for 232 or fewer points in seven straight meetings, including 229 or fewer in seven of them.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans ML -115

The New Orleans Pelicans have quietly gone 9-1 ATS in their 10 games overall and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall to be one of the best covering teams in the NBA over the last month.  They have gotten healthy and they are proving they have the offense to compete with almost anyone.

Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole are back healthy to join Trey Murphy, Derik Queen and company for a very talented offensive lineup.  The Pelicans have won four straight with a 23-point home win over Portland, a 10-pint road win at Chicago, a 5-point upset home win over Houston and 19-point home win over the Pacers.

The Mavericks are dealing with a lot of injuries right now and will be without Max Christie tonight.  Cooper Flagg popped up on the injury report as questionable.  The Mavericks are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three road games losing by 7 at Philadelphia against a 76ers team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They lost by 7 in Utah and by 21 in OKC, too.  Bet the Pelicans on the Money Line Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Mavericks/Pelicans OVER 240.5

The Pelicans are 9-3 OVER in their last 12 games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 237 points at the end of regulation in nine of those 12 games.  The Pelicans rank 11th in pace and 28th in defensive rating.

New Orleans has really been an OVER team at home.  Indeed, the Pelicans are 11-1 OVER in their last 12 home games going for 241 or more combined points in eight of their last 10 home games.  This total of 240.5 is too short for a game involving the Pelicans at home, especially with their offense taking off even more since getting Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole back healthy in recent games.

The Mavericks quietly profile as an OVER team ranking 7th in pace this season.  They are playing a lot faster with the emergence of Ryan Nembhard at point guard.  They are also playing more small ball this season with injuries to their big men.

Last time out, the Mavericks lost 121-114 in Philadelphia for 235 combined points.  The Mavericks shot 17% from 3 while the 76ers shot 43% overall and 30% from 3, yet they still went for 235 combined points.  The Pelicans are shooting at an elite level right now, and the Mavericks will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Illinois/Missouri FS1 No-Brainer on OVER 154

Illinois is an elite offensive team ranking 4th in adjusted offense this season.  The Fighting Illini are coming off a pair of Big Ten shootouts beating Ohio State 88-80 for 168 combined points and losing 83-80 to Nebraska for 163 combined points.  This total of 154 is too short for a game involving Illinois right now.

Missouri ranks 29th in adjusted offense and 105th in adjusted defense to profile as more of an OVER team.  That's especially the case when you factor in Missouri ranking 60th in average length of offensive possession, so the Tigers like to push the pace.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between Missouri and Illinois with 151 or more combined points in all five meetings, and 157 or more in four of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Denver/Tulsa OVER 163.5

Denver is a perfect 11-0 OVER in all games this season as the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in each of their last eight lined games.

What makes Denver such an OVER team is that they have a great offense ranking 107th in adjusted offense and one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 364th in adjusted defense.  They are the second-worst defensive team in the country in adjusted defense.

Tulsa is 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall.  The Golden Hurricane and their opponents have combined for at least 163 points in four of their last five games.  Tulsa is an elite offensive team ranking 40th in adjusted offense and a mediocre defensive team at 148th in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks +12

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a massive letdown spot.  They are coming off a 112-107 upset home win as 7-point dogs over the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder.  They handed the Thunder just their 3rd loss of the season, and I fully expect the Timberwolves to be flat as a pancake Sunday.

The Milwaukee Bucks continue to play competitive basketball without Giannis.  They upset the Celtics by 15 as 9.5-point dogs recently.  They have also owned the Timberwolves going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  They will be giving their best effort tonight, and it will be good enough to stay within this inflated 12-point spread.  Bet the Bucks Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cincinnati/Clemson UNDER 141.5

Cincinnati is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Bearcats rank 229th in adjusted offense and 10th in adjusted defense.  The Bearcats are 8-3 UNDER in all games this season.  They are scoring just 75.5 points per game and allowing 65.5 points per game.

Clemson is also a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Tigers rank 330th in adjusted tempo and play at a snail's pace.  They are also 33rd in adjusted defense allowing just 65.9 points per game.

This game will be played on a neutral in Gainesville with unfamiliar shooting backgrounds.  Points will be hard to come by for both teams today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Lakers/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 229.5

The Lakers are 18-8 OVER in all games this season.  The Lakers are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall finishing with 230 or more combined points in nine of those 10 games.  This total of 229.5 is too short for a game involving the Lakers right now.

The Clippers are as healthy as they have been in a long time with both Harden and Leonard expected to play in this one.  They won't mind getting in a shootout with the Lakers.  They just did on November 25th with the Lakers winning 135-118 for 253 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Pistons OVER 232.5

The Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team right now thanks to the return of La'Melo Ball (19.9 PPG, 8.8 APG) to go along with three proven scorers in Miles Bridges (21.4 PPG), Kon Kneuppel (19.4 PPG) and Brandon Miller (18.2 PPG).

Ball returned last game to lead the Hornets to a 133-126 home win over the Hawks and 259 combined points.  He had 28 points and 13 assists in his return.  Kenueppel had 28 points, Miller 26 and Bridges 16 in the win.  The Hornets play faster with Ball and are worse off defensively, but they are actually a very good offensive team when he's in there.

The Pistons are fully healthy right now and a very good offensive team when that's the case.  The Pistons are 3-0 OVER in their last three home games combining for 257 points with Atlanta, 236 with Milwaukee and 238 with Portland.  This total of 232.5 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Pelicans OVER 233

The Pelicans are 8-3 OVER in their last 11 games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 238 points at the end of regulation in eight of those 11 games.  The Pelicans rank 14th in pace and 28th in defensive rating.

New Orleans has really been an OVER team at home.  Indeed, the Pelicans are 10-1 OVER in their last 11 home games going for 241 or more combined points in eight of their last nine home games.  This total of 233 is too short for a game involving the Pelicans at home.

The Pacers also like to play with pace and will have no problem getting up and down with the Pelicans in this one.  Look for Indiana to have one of its best offensive outputs of the season tonight to keep up with New Orleans in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Auburn/Purdue Top 25 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 153.5

Auburn is 9-2 OVER in all games this season.  The Tigers and their opponents have combined for 155 or more points in nine of their 11 games this season.  They rank 14th in adjusted offense and just 77th in adjusted defense to profile as a dead nuts OVER team.

Purdue actually ranks 1st in adjusted offense this season.  After four straight grinders against under teams in Rutgers, Iowa State, Minnesota and Marquette, the Boilermakers will enjoy this opportunity to face Auburn.  They played Alabama in a 87-80 win for 167 combined points earlier this season, and Auburn profiles similarly to Alabama.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston Rockets ML +105

I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight.  They are playing with double-revenge after a 3-point home loss to the Nuggets on November 21st followed by a 3-point road loss to the Nuggets on December 15th in OT just a few days ago.  They got called for a bogus off the ball foul on an inbounds play in the final seconds that allowed the Nuggets to force OT.

Predictably, the Rockets were flat in their next game losing outright as 9.5-point road favorites at New Orleans.  It was a sandwich spot coming off that deflating loss to the Nuggets, and with a rematch with the Nuggets on deck today.  Now we will get their best effort as this is the game they want to win more than any other this season.

The Nuggets are 'fat and happy' having already beaten the Rockets twice.  I don't think we get their best effort here as a result.  Keep in mind the Rockets were 1-point road favorites at Denver just a few days ago, so they should not be underdogs in the rematch.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Rockets on the Money Line Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Nuggets UNDER 237.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  These teams just met five days ago on December 15th.  They also squared off on November 21st.  So this will be the 3rd meeting between the Nuggets and Rockets in less than a month.

The first meeting was a defensive battle with Denver winning 112-109 for just 221 combined points.  The most recent meeting was tied 117-117 at the end of regulation for 234 combined points before going to OT.  This total of 237.5 has been set too high for the rematch as this figures to be another low-scoring, defensive battle.

The Rockets really profile as an UNDER team ranking 28th in pace and 5th in defensive rating.  The Nuggets are in no hurry either ranking 21st in pace.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Denver/Northern Colorado OVER 162

Denver is a perfect 10-0 OVER in all games this season as the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in each of their last seven lines games.

What makes Denver such an OVER team is that they have a great offense ranking 107th in adjusted offense and one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 365th in adjusted defense.  They are the single-worst defensive team in the country in adjusted defense.

Northern Colorado and its opponents have combined for at least 166 points in five of its last seven games overall.  That includes a 101-90 loss to Texas Tech last time out for 191 combined points.

The Bears profile similarly to the Pioneers in that they rank 114th in adjusted offense and 225th in adjusted defense.  They are a much better offensive team than a defensive team.  Both teams should have their way offensively in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Thunder/Timberwolves NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +7.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are fully healthy tonight with Anthony Edwards making his return to action from a 3-game absence.  The Timberwolves actually managed to win two of their last three games without him including an upset road win at Golden State.  He was last seen hanging 40 points on the Suns.

It's no surprise Edwards returns for this game against Oklahoma City as he and the Timberwolves want revenge on the Thunder after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them last season.  They fell short in a 113-105 road loss as 11-point dogs in their first shot at revenge on November 26th.  But now they get the Thunder at home for the first time this season, and given how motivated they'll be getting 7.5 points with them at home is a tremendous value.

That's especially the case given the favorable spot for the Timberwolves.  They had yesterday off and will be playing just their 4th game in 11 days.  The Thunder will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 122-101 home win over the Clippers last night.  They also participated in the NBA Cup in Las Vegas prior and are still recovering from that.  The spot really favors Minnesota tonight.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Hawks OVER 239.5

The Atlanta Hawks have been trending OVER without Trae Young anyway, so I'm not that concerned that he will sit tonight.  Atlanta is 13-4 OVER in its last 17 games overall finishing with 237 or more combined points in eight of their last 10 games, nine of which have been without Young.  They play fast with or without Young and still have plenty of offensive talent with Johnson and Alexander-Walker really taking their games to the next level this season.

The Spurs are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 237 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  They are playing more small ball and they are fully healthy now with Victor Wembenyama on a minutes restriction.  I actually like San Antonio OVERS more when he doesn't play, and there's a chance he sits tonight on the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Spurs and Hawks.  They have combined for at least 230 points in nine of those 10 meetings, and 244 or more in five of their last six.  That includes a 135-126 home win by the Spurs in their first meeting this season on November 20th for 261 combined points.  This total is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia 76ers +6

The Knicks were in a letdown spot and I faded them successfully with the Pacers +5 last night.  The Knicks managed to win by 1 thanks to a Jalen Brunson 3-pointer.  But the spot is even worse for the Knicks tonight playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, and still reveling in accolades from winning the NBA Cup.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia 76ers are laying in wait after having the last four days off.  They will be max motivated to dethrone the NBA Cup champs, and they are about as healthy as they have been all season coming into this one, so I like their chances.

Tyrese Maxey (31.5 PPG, 7.2 APG) makes his return from a two-game absence due to illness.  He is the one player they cannot afford to be without.  Joel Embiid is out, but they've actually been better without him this season.  Paul George, VJ Edgecombe, Quentin Grimes and Jared McCain are all healthy and playing well.  The spot is too for for the 76ers and too poor for the Knicks to pass up tonight.  Bet the 76ers Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Eastern Michigan/Akron OVER 157

Akron is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Zips rank 25th in adjusted tempo, 20th in average length of offensive possession, 3rd in adjusted offense and 210th in adjusted defense.  The Zips are 7-3 OVER in their 10 lined games and are scoring 95.8 points per game this season.

In fact, Akron and its opponents have combined for 156 or more points in all 11 games this season, none of which went to OT.  This total of 157 is too short for a game involving the Zips, who just combined for 215 points in regulation with Murray State last time out.

No question Eastern Michigan is the opposite wanting to slow it down ranking 290th in adjusted tempo.  But the Zips will control the tempo playing at home.  And we've seen EMU get in shootouts already with two other teams that like to play fast like Akron.  They went for 186 combined points with Oakland and 173 combined points with IU Indy.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Night Line Mistake on Utah Jazz +7

The Utah Jazz can beat anyone at home.  They are 7-7 SU & 10-4 ATS at home this season.  Only four times in 14 home games have they lost by more than 7 points, and two of those came against the best team in the NBA in the THunder.  The others came against Atlanta by 10 and Houston.

But the Jazz also upset Houston, Dallas, Chicago, Indiana and the Clippers at home.  And they can hang with the Lakers at home, which they have proven once already this season in a 108-106 loss as 9-point dogs on November 23rd.  Utah is now 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with the Lakers with losses by 1 and 2 points, and an upset win by 12 as 9-point dogs.

This isn't the best version of the Lakers they will be facing Thursday night, either.  The Lakers will be without two starters and two of their best players in Austin Reaves (27.8 PPG, 6.7 APG, 5.8 RPG) and De'Andre Ayton (15.3 PPG, 9.0 RPG).  The Lakers have no business being 7-point road favorites without these two.  Bet the Jazz Thursday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +14.5

This is the ultimate flat spot for the San Antonio Spurs.  After upsetting both the Lakers in the quarterfinals and the Thunder in the semifinals of the NBA Cup, the Spurs blew a 4th quarter lead and fell short in the championship game in a 124-113 loss to the New York Knicks in Las Vegas.

The Spurs will be flat as a pancake tonight in their first game back from that trip to Las Vegas which could only have been a distraction.  They could care less about beating Washington, and they would need to be fully focused to win this game by 15 or more points, which is what it's going to take to beat us.

Washington is coming off two impressive games in a row.  The Wizards blew a late lead in a 130-126 home loss to Cleveland as 15.5-point dogs, then bounced back with a 108-89 road win at Indiana as 10-point dogs.  There's reason to believe they will keep playing solid basketball tonight, not the least of which is the fact that they are rested and ready to go after having the last three days off.

But the biggest reason to be excited about the Wizards is the healthy return of their best player in C Alex Sarr (19.9 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 2.0 BPG) to the lineup for this one.  Sarr last played on November 28th.  They have been much more competitive with him in the lineup than without him.  Sarr, McColum (18.9 PPG, 40.3% 3-pointers), George (14.9 PPG, 43.9% 3-pointers) and Johnson (11.2 PPG, 39.8% 3-pointers) give the Wizards a solid nucleus when healthy.  Bub Carrington (8.8 PPG, 4.4 APG) and Marvin Bagley (9.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG) are also key contributors who are healthy right now.  Bet the Wizards Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Pelicans OVER 234

The Pelicans are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 241 points at the end of regulation in seven of those 10 games.  The Pelicans rank 12th in pace and 28th in defensive rating.

New Orleans has really been an OVER team at home.  Indeed, the Pelicans are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 home games going for 241 or more combined points in seven of their last eight home games.  This total of 234 is too short for a game involving the Pelicans at home.

The Rockets actually rank 3rd in the NBA in offensive rating and can basically name their number against the Pelicans tonight.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 232 or more combined points in four of those five meetings, and 239 or more in three of the last four.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +10

The New Orleans Pelicans have quietly gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall to be one of the best covering teams in the NBA over the last month.  They have gotten healthy and they are proving they have the offense to play with almost anyone.

I think this is a massive hangover spot for the Houston Rockets.  They put a lot into their last game against the Denver Nuggets but lost 128-125 (OT).  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice as they gave up a FT on a dead ball foul in the final seconds to go to OT.

The last three road games for the Rockets have been concerning as they have lout outright as favorites in all three.  They lost that game as 1-point favorites at Denver, they lost 122-109 as 6.5-point favorites at Dallas and lost 133-125 as 11-point favorites at Utah.  Asking them to win by 11-plus points to beat us tonight is asking too much.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Pacers +5

This is the ultimate flat spot for the New York Knicks.  They just won their first trophy of any kind since 1973 by taking down the NBA Cup with a comeback win over the San Antonio Spurs in Las Vegas.  You can only imagine the kind of celebrating they did Tuesday night in Vegas, and now they have to travel to Indiana two days later still hungover.

It looks as if head coach Mike Brown is likely to rest almost everyone for this game.  Towns (22.1 PPG, 11.8 RPG), Anunoby (16.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG) and Hart (12.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 4.9 APG) have all been downgraded to questionable for this game.  Getting downgraded to questionable is more like doubtful, while being upgraded to questionable is almost like probable.

The Pacers have quietly gone 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They would love nothing more than to beat the NBA Cup champs, and they will be inspired to do so.  Their task gets much easier with all of these guys out for the Knicks as McBride and Shamet are both out already, so they will likely be without 6 key contributors as Mitchell Robinson is downgraded to questionable as well.  This version of the Pacers is better than the version of the Knicks that will be on the court for this one.  Bet the Pacers Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Bulls OVER 241.5

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in pace and 24th in defensive rating.  The face the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight, who rank 9th in pace and 10th in offensive rating and should hang a big number on the Bulls tonight.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Bulls and Cavaliers with 248 or more combined points in all four meetings.  They have combined for 250, 248, 256 and 270 points in those four meetings.  This total of 241.5 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Horizon League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oakland/Northern Kentucky OVER 163

Oakland is a dead nuts OVER team this season.  The Golden Grizzlies rank 28th in adjusted tempo, 78th in adjusted offense and 29th in adjusted defense.  Oakland is 8-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 164 or more combined points in seven of their 10 lined games.

Northern Kentucky also profiles as an OVER team ranking 89th in adjusted tempo.  The Norse are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall finishing with 175 combined points with Cleveland State and 156 in their other two games.

Oakland games are averaging 169.4 combined points per game this season.  Northern Kentucky games are averaging 159.6 combined points per game.  Neither team has even played an OT game this season.  This total of 163 is too short for a game involving these two teams, especially with it expected to be close and fouls likely to factor in late.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Montana State/Cal Poly OVER 158.5

Cal Poly cannot have a total this low in the 150's.  The Mustangs are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in the entire country in tempo and 9th in average length of offensive possession.

That up-tempo style of play has led the Mustangs to going 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall.  We have seen the Mustangs and their opponents combine for at least 168 points in seven of their last eight games overall.

Montana State is 5-4 OVER in all games this season.  No question the Bobcats play slower than Cal Poly, but the Mustangs will control the tempo playing at home.  I don't think the Bobcats will mind getting in a shootout with them after playing a bunch of teams recently that play slow.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Spurs/Knicks NBA Cup Championship No-Brainer on San Antonio +3

The San Antonio Spurs are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA and they have proven that by making the NBA Cup Championship Game.  They aren't going to just be happy with getting this close and not getting over the hump, and I expect this young, hungry team to finish the deal tonight.

The Spurs are 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall with 12 of those games played without Victor Wemenyama.  Well, Wembenyama returned against Oklahoma City and scored 22 points in less than 21 minutes of action.  He will be on a minutes limit again tonight, but should see a few more minutes.

What I really like about the Spurs is that Wembenyama being out allowed other players to step up, and now the Spurs are fully healthy for the first time all season.  De'Aaron Fox has shouldered the load, but he has gotten plenty of help from Stephon Castle and company.  Castle has 52 points in these two NBA Cup games and is thriving.

While the Spurs had to go on the road and beat the Lakers 132-119 as 7-point dogs and upset the best team in the NBA in the Thunder as 10-point dogs to get here, the New York Knicks have had a much easier path.  In fact, they have played one of the easiest schedules possible during their 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS run that has them way overvalued.

They have faced the Hornets twice, the Nets, the Magic without Franz Wagner twice, the Raptors without RJ Barrett twice, the Bucks and the Jazz for their nine wins.  They lost to the best team in the Celtics.  The Knicks benefited from the Raptors being without both Barrett and a late scratch to Immanuel Quickley in the NBA Cup quarterfinals, which are their two best players.  And in the semifinals, they didn't have to face Franz Wagner, plus Jalen Suggs got hurt after a blistering start to the game.

This is where the Knicks' luck runs out tonight having to face a fully healthy Spurs team that I believe is better than the Knicks in their current state.  The Knicks are without two key role players in Miles McBride and Landry Shamet, which really hurts their shooting and their bench play.  They have a great starting 5, but the Spurs will have the advantage any time they sub them out.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Colorado +25.5

Northern Colorado is 9-1 this season with its only loss coming by a single point to St. Thomas on a neutral.  The Bears are one of the better mid major teams in the country, and they should not be catching 25.5 points to Texas Tech.

The Red Raiders are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are 7-3 SU but just 3-7 ATS this season.  They only beat Sam Houston State by 21 as 31.5-point home favorites, Milwaukee by 17 as 27.5-point home favorites and Wyoming by 4 as 19.5-point home favorites.  This role of big home favorite has not gone well for them this year, and it won't go well for them tonight, either.  Bet Northern Colorado Tuesday.