15* Cavs/Bucks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee +9

The Cleveland Cavaliers are struggling to find much motivation since their big comeback win over the Celtics that basically cemented their spot in 1st place in the East.  They have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games, and the one game they covered they were actually tied in the 4th quarter with the Bulls before pulling away late.

They only beat Charlotte by 1 as 16-point favorites, only beat Miami by 5 as 13.5-point favorites and needed OT to beat the Blazers as double-digit favorites.  They lead the Celtics by 7.5 games for 1st place and I think motivation will continue to be an issue for them the rest of the way.  I think you can fade them in every game and make money.

This line has been adjusted up too much for the Bucks playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They lost to the Magic at home yesterday so there's no travel involved as they are home again today.  They also had 2 days off prior to that loss to the Magic, so they should still be pretty fresh.

Giannis, Lillard and Kuzma have all been ruled in and this line has since crashed a little.  I expected them all to play which is why I grabbed the +9.  I think they were looking ahead to this game and overlooking the Magic yesterday.  The Bucks are 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with the two losses coming by 2 and 3 points.  Bet the Bucks Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Timberwolves OVER 233

The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team since losing Defensive Player of the Year favorite Victor Wembenyama to a season-ending injury.  They are going small ball and playing as fast as they can led by De'Aaron Fox.

The Spurs are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 258 points with Memphis, 278 with Oklahoma City and even 240 against a dead nuts under team in Brooklyn.  They also went for 236 combined points with the Kings in their last game, a Kings team that was missing two key starters in Sabonis and Monk.

The Timberwolves have had to go more small ball without Rudy Gobert who is questionable again tonight.  It has unlocked their offense, but they are obviously much worse off defensively.  The Timberwolves are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games overall going for 233 or more combined points in six of those nine games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Suns/Mavericks ABC ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix -8

The Phoenix Suns are showing that they are fighting to make the playoffs.  They had a 20-point comeback to beat the Clippers two games ago, and they took the Nuggets to overtime on the road in their last game.

Now the Suns are in a must-win situation today because they play the team they are trailing to make the play-in in the Dallas Mavericks.  They are 2.5 games behind the Mavericks for that last play-in spot.

The Mavericks have a whopping 10 players on the injury report heading into this game with 8 of them ruled out.  They are basically fielding a G League team right now.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight blowout losses by 11 points or more.  I don't see them keeping this game competitive against the Suns today, either.  Bet the Suns Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Drake -2

I think getting to play the early game the day before is a huge advantage.  Teams that play the early game in these conference tournaments get to scout the team that plays in the late game for their upcoming showdown the next day.

Drake crushed SIU 70-53 before needing a comeback to beat Belmont 57-50 yesterday.  The Bulldogs should still be pretty fresh, and they play at one of the slowest tempos in the country to help them remain fresh.

Bradley was in two wars with Murray State and Valparaiso the last two days.  Those are two terrible teams in the MVC and they took the Braves to the wire.  They beat Murray State 70-62 two days ago before topping Valparaiso 70-65 yesterday.  Now the Braves will be tested playing their 3rd game in 3 days and another war in store.  I expect Drake to pull away late.  

The Bulldogs own the Braves going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Drake Sunday.

20* Bradley/Drake MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 124

MVC Tournament UNDERS are hitting at about a 67% clip over the last 10 seasons.  Players just struggle with the shooting background at Enterprise Center in St. Louis.  The UNDER is 9-1 (90%) in the first 10 games of the MVC Tournament this season.  

It will be more of the same in the Championship Game today.  This will be the 3d meeting between Drake and Bradley this season.  The first two saw just 121 and 120 combined points.  I expect an even lower-scoring game in the title game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Nuggets/Thunder ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -7.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are rested and ready to go today against the Denver Nuggets.  They rested all of their starters and still beat the Blazers 107-89 on Friday.  Their starters have now had the last three days off heading into this game and are primed for a big effort.

The Denver Nuggets are coming off a thrilling 149-141 (OT) home win over the Suns on Friday.  Jokic had the first 30-20-20 game in NBA history.  The Nuggets won't be nearly as fresh for this one, and you can bet the Thunder will rally around Shai-Gilgeous Alexander to try and get them a win to bolster his MVP case as he is neck and neck with Jokic.

The Thunder have won four of their last five meetings with the Nuggets as this has proven to be a terrible matchup for Denver.  Four of those games were on the road as well.  It's going to be a raucous home atmosphere for the Thunder today with the Nuggets coming to town, and the Thunder are 27-4 SU & 19-11-1 ATS at home this season.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on East Carolina +5.5

East Carolina is alive for a Top 4 seed in the AAC which would get the Pirates a double-bye in the AAC Tournament.  They need to win today and have Tulane lose to UAB, and the Green Wave are underdogs to the Blazers so that is a very realistic possibility.

Florida Atlantic has nothing to play for today.  They haven't been playing well at all down the stretch going 1-4 SU in their last five games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.  They should not be this big of favorites today.

East Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last seven games overall with its lone loss coming on the road by 5 points.  The Pirates are playing the much better basketball right now, and not only will they be motivated for a double-bye, but they also want revenge from a 78-76 loss to FAU in their first meeting this season way back on January 5th.  These teams have gone in opposite directions since then, and that will play out on the court today.  Bet East Carolina Sunday.

15* Utah/BYU ESPNU Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 153.5

The BYU Cougars are an elite offensive team.  They rank 12th in adjusted offense, 4th in effective FG percentage and 28th in 3-point percentage.  The Cougars are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall combining for 173 points with Iowa State, 172 with Arizona State and 191 with Arizona in three of their last four games.

Utah likes to play fast ranking 98th in adjusted tempo, 75th in adjusted offense and just 80th in adjusted defense.  The Utes went for 172 combined points with Arizona State two games back.

What really stood out was how poorly these teams shot in their 1st meeting this season, which was a 73-72 home win for Utah and just 145 combined points.  BYU shot 38.5% from the field, 8-of-30 (26.7%) from 3-point range and 4-of-10 (40%) from the FT line.  

Utah shot 44.6% from the field, 6-of-23 (26.1%) from 3-point range and a woeful 17-of-32 (53.1%) from the FT line.  It's safe to say both teams are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +3.5

The Chicago Bulls are in the final play-in spot in the East currently so they still have something to play for here down the stretch.  They continue showing up every night and I think they'll give the Miami Heat a run for their money tonight.

The Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall including an upset road win at Orlando.  They have three losses by 5 points or fewer during this stretch, and they have been competitive in almost every game.

This is a terrible spot for Miami and the biggest reason I'm on the Bulls tonight.  The Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 106-104 home loss to the Timberwolves last night.  This will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Heat.

Adebayo played 43 minutes, Herro 39 and Mitchell 38 last night.  The Heat are already short-handed without Jovic and Smith, while Wiggins, Ware and Burks are all questionable to play tonight.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

20* Texas Tech/Arizona State ESPNU No-Brainer on OVER 151.5

Texas Tech beat Arizona State 111-106 (2 OT) in their first meeting this season on February 12th.  But that game was still tied 90-90 at the end of regulation for 180 combined points, so we have 28.5 points to spare in the rematch with this 151.5-point total.

The Red Raiders just got two of their top three scorers back from injury in McMillian and Williams two games ago.  They won 78-73 at Kansas for 151 combined points and 91-75 at home over Colorado for 166 combined points.  Kansas is a dead nuts under team with all defense and suspect offense, and the same goes for Colorado.

Now the Red Raiders face an Arizona State team that has completely let go of the rope defensively down the stretch.  The Sun Devils are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games overall, including three straight absolute shootouts losing 91-81 to BYU for 172 combined points, losing 99-73 to Utah for 172 combined points and losing 113-100 to Arizona for 213 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Hawks OVER 242.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Indiana Pacers visit the Atlanta Hawks.  Both teams like to play fast as the Hawks rank 2nd in pace while the Pacers rank 8th.  This game will see a ton of possessions and should sail OVER this 242.5-point total.

The Hawks have really been a dead nuts OVER team since trading for Georges Niang and Caris LeVert.  The Hawks are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall.  They have gone for 248 or more combined points in four of those seven games, including 291 with Detroit and 262 with Memphis.

The OVER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between the Hawks and Pacers with 255 or more combined points in seven of those 11 meetings.  They have gone for 259 or more combined points in five of their last seven meetings.  Enough said.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana Pacers -2

The Indiana Pacers want revenge from a 124-118 road loss at Atlanta on Thursday just two nights ago.  They blew an 8-point lead heading into the 4th quarter.  But they didn't have Tyrese Haliburton for that game and still should have won.  There's a decent chance he returns to action tonight.

That was a rare loss for the Pacers in this head-to-head series as they simply own the Hawks.  The Pacers are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Hawks with three wins by 18 points or more.  I expect them to have their revenge in a big way tonight.  Bet the Pacers Saturday.

15* ACC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Duke/UNC OVER 156.5

North Carolina has been a dead nuts OVER team here down the stretch.  The Tar Heels are 7-0 OVER in their last seven games overall with 165 or more combined points in four of those games.  They have scored at least 88 points in five of their last six games with the lone exception being the 81 they scored against a dead nuts under team in Virginia that plays at one of the slowest tempos in college basketball.

Duke is 6-0 OVER in its last six games overall with 157 or more combined points in four of those six games.  The Blue Devils have scored at least 93 points in five of those six games, with the lone exception being against that same dead nuts under team in Virginia in which they scored 80.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 157, 163 and 177 combined points.  Bet the OVER In this game Saturday.

20* Duke/UNC ESPN No-Brainer on North Carolina +11.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels are one of the most improved teams in the country here down the stretch.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with each of their last five wins coming by 11 points or more and by an average of 20.2 points per game.

This late surge has put the Tar Heels on the bubble to make the NCAA Tournament.  An upset win over Duke would cement their spot.  They want revenge from a 87-70 road loss at Duke in their first meeting this season as 13.5-point dogs.  This line is now 11.5 in the rematch, which isn't adjusted enough for home-court advantage.  It should be much closer to 7, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tar Heels win this game outright.

No question Duke will be motivated to beat their rival, but I don't think they'll have the same motivation they normally would going into this rivalry game.  They have already clinched an ACC regular season title and are locked in to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  They already beat UNC by 17 as well, so there's not as much of a sense of urgency after already blowing them out once.  But this is a totally different UNC team from that first meeting, and I expect them to give the Blue Devils a run for their money today.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +12.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers have completely let go of the rope here down the stretch and have no business being a 12.5-point favorite over Boston College as a result.  The Panthers are 4-12 SU & 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall, including four straight losses with three upset losses to Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and NC State.

Boston College continues to play hard here down the stretch going 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Eagles gave Clemson a run for their money last game in a 9-point loss against one of the top teams in the ACC.  They will be able to hang with Pittsburgh today.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* Valparaiso/Bradley MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 145.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS are hitting at about a 66% clip over the last 10 seasons.  Players just struggle with the shooting background at Enterprise Center in St. Louis.  The UNDER is 7-1 (88%) in the first eight games of the MVC Tournament this season.

Bradley beat Murray State 70-62 yesterday for just 132 combined points, while Valparaiso beat Northern Iowa 64-63 yesterday for just 127 combined points.  Bradley and Valparaiso combined for 126 and 141 points at the end of regulation in their two regular season meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Ole Miss/Florida SEC No-Brainer on OVER 156.5

Florida ranks 67th in adjusted tempo and 4th in adjusted offense.  Ole Miss also prefers to play faster ranking 132nd in adjusted tempo and 24th in adjusted offense.  This is a matchup of elite guards on both sides, and it should be a shootout in the regular season finale.

Ole Miss is 7-2 OVER in its last nine games overall, including 171 combined points with Oklahoma, 182 with Auburn, 174 with Auburn and 182 with Kentucky.  Florida is 3-0 OVER in its last three games overall combining for 171 points with Georgia, 159 with Texas A&M and 193 with Alabama.  

Ole Miss beat Florida 103-85 for 188 combined points in their lone meeting last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Xavier -11

The Xavier Musketeers are fully healthy and playing as well as anyone in the Big East right now.  The Musketeers have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall to play themselves onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.

Xavier followed up its 22-point home win over Creighton with a 13-point road win at Butler.  Joe Lunardi has them listed as the last team in the field, so they know they still have some work to do to make the NCAA Tournament.  That's why they'll still be max motivated to beat Providence today.

Providence has completely let go of the rope here down the stretch.  The Friars are 1-8 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall, including 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games with four straight terrible losses.  They lost by 21 at Georgetown, by 30 at Marquette, by 12 at home to UConn and were upset as 9-point home favorites by DePaul.  

Xavier beat Providence 91-82 on the road on February 12th in their first meeting this season.  They won by 9 despite the Friars shooting 53.7% from the field.  They aren't going to shoot that well in the rematch, and it will be an even bigger blowout as a result.  Bet Xavier Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah State -21.5

I love the spot for the Utah State Aggies today.  They are coming off two straight embarrassing road losses by 17 at Boise State and by 27 at Colorado State.  They have had the last week off to recover, and I expect a big effort from them today.

The Aggies are now on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament, so they can't afford to take Air Force lightly.  They certainly didn't when they blasted Air Force 87-58 on the road in their first meeting this season.  I expect it to be more of the same in the rematch.

Air Force has lost three straight games by 21 or more points coming in, and they have lost seven of their last 11 games by 21-plus points.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

20* Belmont/Drake MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 138.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS are hitting at about a 66% clip over the last 10 seasons.  Players just struggle with the shooting background at Enterprise Center in St. Louis.  The UNDER is 7-1 (88%) in the first eight games of the MVC Tournament this season.

Drake beat Belmont 65-46 for just 111 combined points in their lone regular season meeting.  Drake ranks 364th in adjusted tempo and slows games down to a crawl.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Alabama/Auburn ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 177.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in adjusted tempo, 3rd in adjusted offense and 5th in average length of offensive possession.  Alabama and its opponents have combined for at least 179 points in six of their last seven games overall.

Auburn ranks 130th in adjusted tempo and 1st in adjusted offense.  The OVER is 9-2 in Auburn's last 11 games overall.  They beat Alabama 94-85 in their first meeting this season for 179 combined points.

They got to 179 combined points despite Alabama shooting just 38.6% from the field and 5-of-26 (19.2%) from 3-point range.  It's not like Auburn lit it up either shooting 46.2% from the field.  So there's clearly room for improvement in the shooting department in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 Total DOMINATOR on Fordham/Rhode Island OVER 158.5

Rhode Island is very much an OVER team ranking 45th in adjusted tempo.  The Rams are 18-10 OVER in all games this season.  The Rams are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games with 157 or more combined points in six of them.

Fordham also prefers to play fast ranking 59th in adjusted tempo and 269th in adjusted defense.  The OVER is 7-3 in Rams' last 10 games overall with 159 or more combined points four times.

Fordham beat Rhode Island 80-79 for 159 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Neither team shot that well as Fordham shot 43.5% while Rhode Island shot 46.6%, so if anything there's room for improved shooting in the rematch.  Neither team has anything at stake here so I expect relaxed defense and all offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* St. John's/Marquette FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 143.5

St. John's is going to be without PG Deivon Smith (9.9 PPG, 4.1 APG) today.  They will be a little lost offensively without him and will have to rely on defense even more.  That's something they have no problem with ranking 2nd in the country in adjusted defense.  What they do struggle with is shooting, ranking 248th in effective FG percentage and 337th in 3-point percentage on offense.

Marquette is also an elite offensive team ranking 19th in adjusted defense.  The Golden Eagles rank 362nd in average length of defensive possession, making opponents work hard to even get a shot up.  St. John's does the same thing ranking 338th in average length of defensive possession.

That's why it was no surprise to see these teams both struggle offensively in their first meeting this season.  St. John's won 70-64 for just 134 combined points on February 4th.  I'm expecting another defensive struggle in the rematch.  

The UNDER is 9-4 in Red Storm last 13 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Golden Eagles last eight games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on NC State/Miami OVER 149

Both Miami and NC State are going to finish in the Bottom 3 of the ACC standings and thus will not be playing in the ACC Tournament.  So this is a completely meaningless game and the final game of the season for both teams.  I expect all offense and zero defense as this game is played like a pick up game.

All Miami games are played like a pick up game.  The Hurricanes are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 163 combined points with Georgia Tech, 165 with UNC, 157 with Duke and 149 with Virginia Tech.  The Hurricanes are playing zero defense here down the stretch allowing 89.8 points per game in their last four.  They rank 68th in adjusted offense and 341st in adjusted defense this season.

NC State is 5-3 OVER in its last eight games overall.  The 2024 ACC Tournament champs won't get that chance to make another run.  Look for them to let go of the rope defensively today and oblige in a shootout with the Hurricanes.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Clippers UNDER 218.5

Both the Knicks and Clippers will be without their top scorers tonight due to injury.  The Knicks will be without Jalen Brunson (26.3 PPG, 7.4 APG) while the Clippers will be without Norman Powell (23.8 PPG).  Both offenses will really struggle as a result.

The Knicks have been a dead nuts UNDER team even with Brunson in the lineup here of late.  They have gone 5-1 UNDER in their last six games overall and would be 6-0 UNDER if not for OT.  The Knicks and their opponents have combined for 216 or fewer points at the end of regulation in four of their last five games.

The Clippers have been a dead nuts UNDER team all season.  They rank 21st in pace and 4th in defensive rating.  The Knicks rank 24th in pace this season.  The Knicks and Clippers have combined for 212 or fewer points at the end of regulation in six of their last seven meetings, making for a 6-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 218.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +5.5

The San Antonio Spurs will rally around De'Aaron Fox tonight and try and get him some revenge against the team that traded him away in the Sacramento Kings.  The Spurs are playing well in their last three games taking the Thunder to the wire in a loss, upsetting Memphis and beating Brooklyn by 14.

The Spurs now have two days off in between games to rest and prepare to beat the Kings.  The Kings are in a world of hurt right now in the injury department missing two starters in Sabonis (19.5 PPG, 14.1 RPG, 6.2 APG) and Mink (17.6 PPG, 5.9 APG).  They should not be this heavily favored over the Spurs without these guys.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

20* Spurs/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Spurs/Kings OVER 234.5

The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team since losing Defensive Player of the Year favorite Victor Wembenyama to a season-ending injury.  They are going small ball and playing as fast as they can led by De'Aaron Fox.

The Spurs are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 258 points with Memphis, 278 with Oklahoma City and even 240 against a dead nuts under team in Brooklyn.  They won two of those three games so this fast pace is working, and they are going to stick with it tonight.

The Kings are lighting it up offensively here down the stretch scoring at least 118 points in seven of their last 10 games overall.  I expect them to get to that number again tonight while the Spurs keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Valparaiso/Northern Iowa UNDER 145.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS are hitting at about a 65% clip since moving to the Enterprise Center.  They went 3-1 in the opening round yesterday.  I'm riding every one of them today in the quarterfinals.

20* WCC GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland -1

No team is flying under the radar quite like the Portland Pilots here down the stretch.  The Pilots are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  That includes outright upsets victories over Oregon State by 12 as 13.5-point dogs, Loyola-Marymount by 11 as 5-point dogs and Pacific by 8 as 3-point dogs.  The Pilots only lost by 13 at Saint Mary's as 23.5-point dogs as well.  They also beat Pepperdine by 20 twice.

ATS margin is a great way to tell just how undervalued a team is.  Well, the Pilots are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall while covering the spread by a combined 75.5 points in those six games, or an average of 12.6 points per game.  All five of their ATS wins came by at least 10.5 points.

I'm willing to forgive Portland for a 82-80 road loss at San Diego as 2-point favorites in their regular season finale because they had nothing to play for.  It was Senior Night for San Diego and they were clearly the more motivated team.  San Diego went on to upset Pacific in the WCC Tournament yesterday.

Pepperdine is 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall with its lone win coming at home over San Diego.  That includes two 20-point losses to Portland, and there's no way the Waves should be getting this much respect again in their 3rd and final meeting.  The Pilots will obviously be max motivated with their season on the line and won't take the Waves lightly.  It's going to be another blowout in their favor.  Bet Portland Friday.

20* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Portland Trail Blazers +3

The Oklahoma City Thunder are resting five starters in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein and Cason Wallace tonight.  Chet Holmgren is questionable as well.  They are clearly throwing in the towel for this game to try and get their guys some rest for the stretch run.

The Portland Trail Blazers have too much to play for to take the Thunder lightly.  They are just 4 games back of the final play-in spot in the West, and the team they are chasing is the Mavericks who are in a world of hurt with all their injuries and likely to drop out of the playoffs.

The Blazers have quietly gone 15-7 SU & 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games overall to put themselves in this position.  They aren't going to pack it in now.  Look for them to win this game outright tonight.  Bet the Blazers Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Raptors OVER 228.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 10th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  The Jazz are 12-2 OVER in their last 14 games overall with 233 or more combined points in 12 of those 14 games.

The Raptors are 9-5 OVER in their last 14 games overall.  These are two teams with not much to play for right now, so defense will likely be option.  It is optional for the Jazz every night.  

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with 230 or more combined points in each of their last five, including 238 or more combined points in each of their last four meeting.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Murray State/Bradley MVC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 134.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS are hitting at about a 65% clip since moving to the Enterprise Center.  They went 3-1 in the opening round yesterday.  I'm riding every one of them today in the quarterfinals.

15* Dayton/VCU ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Dayton +9

The Dayton Flyers want revenge from their 73-68 home loss to VCU as 1-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  The last five regular season meetings between these teams have now been decided by 5 points or fewer.

I question VCU's motivation in its regular season finale here knowing that they have already locked up the Atlantic 10 regular season title.  The Flyers are in a three-way tie for seeds 3-5, and the top 4 seeds get a bye in the Atlantic 10 Tournament so they have a lot to play for.

Dayton is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games overall with two losses coming by 5 points or fewer, so the Flyers are playing very well to close out the season.  They can hang with the top team in the A-10 tonight.  Bet Dayton Friday.

15* Illinois State/Belmont MVC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 158.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS are hitting at about a 65% clip since moving to the Enterprise Center.  They went 3-1 in the opening round yesterday.  I'm riding every one of them today in the quarterfinals.

15* SIU/Drake MVC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 128.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS are hitting at about a 65% clip since moving to the Enterprise Center.  They went 3-1 in the opening round yesterday.  I'm riding every one of them today in the quarterfinals.

15* Knicks/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 228

Two key injury updates heading into this game is the reason I'm on the OVER.  Karl-Anthony Towns (24.5 PPG) is probable after sitting out their last game against the Warriors.  Austin Reaves (19.1 PPG, 6.0 APG) has been upgraded to probable after sitting out most of the last three games for the Lakers.

Both teams have been trending under the total lately largely due to injuries, which has this total sitting lower than it should be.  The Lakers have gone under the total in six of their last seven, but they are coming off a 251-point outburst with the Pelicans and they really profile as an OVER team with all offense and no defense.  They have just been getting fortunate with opposing teams missing a lot of wide open 3-pointers.

The Knicks have gone under the total in four of their last five games.  But now I think their offense will take off tonight with Towns back in the lineup.  This is a pretty low total for a game involving the Knicks considering nine of their last 11 games have seen a total higher than 228 points.  The Lakers have seen a total of 228 or higher in eight of their last 11 games.  So we are getting this OVER at a 'discount' tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on CS-Fullerton/Cal Poly OVER 161.5

Cal Poly is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Mustangs rank 2nd in adjusted tempo and 1st in average length of offensive possession in the entire country.  They are also 254th in adjusted defense.  The Mustangs are 19-10 OVER in all games this season.

Cal Poly is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall with 170 or more combined points in five of those six games.  That includes their 98-83 road win a CS-Fullerton in their first meeting this season for 181 combined points.  Fullerton also likes to play fast ranking 127th in adjusted tempo and 303rd in adjusted defense.

Neither team shot the lights out and it still got to 181 combined points.  Cal Poly shot 48.6% from the field while CS-Fullerton shot 46.9%.  I think we get a similar showing in the rematch with zero defense being played in this meaningless game between two Big West bottom feeders to close out the regular season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Pelicans OVER 228.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are a dead nuts OVER team that is all offense and zero defense.  That's the case since Zion Williamson, McCollum and Murphy have all been healthy and playing together here down the stretch.  Throw in Kelly Olynyk, who is all offense and no defense, and they really profile as an OVER team.

The OVER is 4-0 in Pelicans last four games overall with 233 or more combined points in all four games, including 240 or more in three of them.  The Houston Rockets are without Fred VanVleet right now and they actually play a lot faster without him slowing it down to run the offense.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 239, 246 and 232 combined points with two of those meetings coming this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Hawks OVER 246.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Indiana Pacers visit the Atlanta Hawks.  Both teams like to play fast as the Hawks rank 2nd in pace while the Pacers rank 8th.  This game will see a ton of possessions and should sail OVER this 246.5-point total.

The Hawks have really been a dead nuts OVER team since trading for Georges Niang and Caris LeVert.  The Hawks are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall.  They have gone for 248 or more combined points in four of those six games, including 291 with Detroit and 262 with Memphis.

The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Hawks and Pacers with 255 or more combined points in seven of those eight meetings.  They have gone for 259 or more combined points in five of their last six meetings.  Enough said.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. 

15* MVC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Evansville +5.5

The Evansville Purple Aces have quietly gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall and are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They remain undervalued as 5.5-point underdogs to the Murray State Racers in the MVC Tournament opener.

Murray State is just a team I don't have much faith in because I think Steve Prohm is one of the worst coaches in the country.  Just look at what Iowa State has done since he departed.  He benefited from having Fred Hoiberg's players, and when he got his own players they really struggled before his firing.

The Racers are 5-9 SU in their last 14 games overall.  They only beat Evansville by 2 at home while losing by 4 at Evansville in the rematch.  So both teams were down to the wire.  Each of the last three meetings have been decided by 4 points or less, and the Purple Aces have gone 3-0 ATS in those three meetings.  Bet Evansville Thursday.

25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Pistons ML -125

The Detroit Pistons are 12-3 SU & 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall and playing some of their best basketball of the season.  Two of the losses came to Denver and Cleveland and the other was a 2-point loss at the buzzer to the Hawks.

But this is more of a play against the Clippers than anything.  They'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after blowing a 19-point lead heading into the 4th quarter in a 119-117 loss at Phoenix last night.  Four starters played at least 36 minutes and all five starters played at least 31 minutes.

The Clippers were already without two key players in Norman Powell (23.8 PPG) and Derrick Jones Jr. (10.4 PPG).  Now it has already been announced that Kawhi Leonard will sit out this game.  It's safe to say the Clippers' depth will be tested tonight.

Not only are the Clippers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but they are playing their 7th game in 11 days as well.  They are coming off an 8-game road trip, so this looks to be one of the toughest spots for any team all season.  They have really struggled since losing Powell to injury.  They are 1-6 SU in their last seven games.  The Clippers are 0-8 ATS In their last eight games.  I don't know how they get back up off the mat after that loss to the Suns last night and being so short-handed tonight.

If you missed the early -125 ML bet I made, I would still play the Pistons all the way up to -200 tonight.  Bet the Pistons on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* Washington/USC Big Ten Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 150

The USC Trojans are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 20-8 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 119th in adjusted tempo, 47th in adjusted offense but just 110th in adjusted defense.

The Trojans are 15-4-1 OVER in their last 20 games overall with 151 or more combined points in 15 of those 20 games.  Washington has been a dead nuts OVER team here down the stretch.

The Huskies are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall with 147 or more combined points in seven of their last eight games.  The Huskies also like to play faster ranking 140th in adjusted tempo.

I don't see much defense being played in this pretty much meaningless game at the end of the regular season between a pair of Big Ten bottom feeders.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Thunder/Grizzlies ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 246.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Grizzlies rank 1st in pace while the Thunder rank 6th in pace, so this game is going to see a ton of possessions.

The Thunder are 15-4-1 OVER in their last 20 games overall.  They have gone for seven straight OVERS with 250 or more combined points in each of their last six games.  The Grizzlies are 4-1 OVER In their last five games overall with 252 or more combined points in four of those five games.

Jaren Jackson Jr. is out for the Grizzlies with an injury, and he is the current favorite to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year.  Now the Grizzlies are without their best defender, so they will be even more offense and less defense with Zach Edey taking his place in the lineup.  The Thunder will be without Alex Caruso, who is one of their best defenders and provides very little offensively.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Tennessee/Ole Miss ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Ole Miss +4

The Tennessee Volunteers are in a big letdown spot after a 79-76 home win over Alabama on a 3-pointer at the buzzer.  The Vols have been much more vulnerable on the road, going 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS in SEC road games with three of those wins coming by single-digits.

Ole Miss is 11-3 SU at home this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  This is a game I fully expect the Rebels to win outright.  Bet Ole Miss Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavs/Bucks UNDER 225.5

Injuries just keep piling up for the Dallas Mavericks.  It was announced yesterday that Kyrie Irving suffered a season-ending torn ACL.  They were already without Davis, Gafford, Lively and PJ Washington which is basically 5 starters.  SG Jaden Hardey is out with an ankle injury suffered in the same that that Kyrie got hurt.

The Mavericks were held to just 98 points by the Kings in that game.  They are going to be fielding a G League roster for this game with Milwaukee.  I would be surprised if the Mavericks exceed 100 points tonight as they'll be lost without Irving.

I considered taking the Bucks, but they are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 127-121 shootout win in Atlanta last night.  I wouldn't be surprised if they rest one or more of Giannis, Lillard and Kuzma.  They probably thing they can beat the Mavericks without these guys.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  These teams just played on Saturday, March 1st, so they are very familiar with one another.  Irving had 31 points and Hardy had 16 points in that game, so that's 47 points they will be without in the rematch.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Texas Tech -17.5

Texas Tech just got two of its best players back from injury in McMillan and Williams in time to upset Kansas on the road over the weekend.  Now the Red Raiders are at full strength and one of the best teams in the country when that's the case.  They rank 7th in KenPom and are one of my favorite long shot bets to win the NCAA Tournament.

I expect the Red Raiders to make easy work of Colorado, which is the worst team in the Big 12 at 2-16 in conference play this season.  The Buffaloes made me some money lately because they were undervalued for a stretch, but now it's time to fade them tonight.

The Buffaloes just lost one of their best players in Julian Hammond (12.4 PPG) in a 9-point loss at Kansas State in their last game.  They can't afford to be without him.  Colorado is 0-9 SU in Big 12 road games this season with seven losses by double-digits.

This will be Senior Night for the Red Raiders so they should be fully focused and ready to go. They should also be fresh playing just their 2nd game in 9 days.  I look for them to put it on the Buffaloes and win this game by 20-plus tonight.  Bet Texas Tech Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Wizards OVER 230.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 10th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They play another dead nuts OVER team tonight in the Washington Wizards, who rank 4th in pace and 28th in defensive rating.

The Jazz are 11-2 OVER in their last 13 games overall with 233 or more combined points in 11 of those 13 games.  The Wizards get Jordan Poole back for this game and he means everything to them offensively, but he's also one of the worst defenders in the NBA.  They played two low-scoring games without him, but the last time he suited up they went for 250 combined points with Portland.

The Jazz and Wizards have combined for at least 231 points in each of their last four meetings, making for a 4-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 230.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +10.5

Don't look now but the Blazers are just four games back from the play-in in the WEst.  The teams they are chasing are the Mavericks and Suns, who both look to be tanking and in downward spirals.  The Blazers have put themselves in this position by going 15-6 SU & 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall.

Portland boasts one of the most talented young rosters in the NBA that doesn't get much publicity playing in the Pacific Northwest.  The Blazers showed what they were capable of by taking the Cavaliers to OT on the road two games ago, then avoided the letdown the very next night with a 17-point win in Philadelphia, which was almost equally impressive.

Now I expect the Blazers to give the Celtics a run for their money tonight.  The Celtics are in a precarious position right now.  They know they can't catch the Cavs for 1st place in the East, so they are pretty much locked into the No. 2 seed.  They will have questionable motivation the rest of the way because of it.

The Celtics are also dealing with a ton of injuries heading into this game.  They are without Porzingis and Holiday, and now both Tatum and Brown are questionable to play tonight.  Boston should not be favored by double-digits here.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

15* Florida/Alabama ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 177.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in adjusted tempo, 5th in average length of offensive possession and 3rd in adjusted offense.  Florida also profiles as an OVER team ranking 4th in adjusted offense, 69th in adjusted tempo and 39th in average length of offensive possession.

Alabama and its opponents have combined for at least 179 points in five of its last six games overall, so this total of 177.5 isn't too high for a game involving the Crimson Tide.

The OVER went 3-0 in three meetings between Alabama and Florida last season alone with 190 or more combined points in all three games.  The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings dating back further.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on George Washington -3

George Washington is going for its 20th win this season and has been one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Colonials will be motivated to get that 20th win tonight, and I like the value we are getting on them as short 3-point favorites.

Fordham is 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall and just ready for this season to be over.  The Rams have lost five of those six games by 9 points or more with the lone exception being a 4-point loss at Richmond, which is 10-20 this season.

Fordham's last three home games have been a disaster losing by 17 to Dayton, by 14 to St. Joe's and by 11 to Davidson.  The Colonials have actually pulled outright upsets in two of their last three road games at Davidson by 7 and at St. Bonaventure by 10.  Bet George Washington Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on La Salle/George Mason UNDER 134.5

George Mason profiles as a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Patriots rank 320th in adjusted tempo, 213th in adjusted offense and 22nd in adjusted defense.  They allow just 60.1 points per game on 36.7% shooting at home this season.

La Salle is one of the worst offensive teams in the country.  The Explorers rank 251st in adjusted offense and 347th in effective FG percentage.  They are scoring just 66.5 points pre game on 38.8% shooting in conference play this season.

The UNDER is 5-1 in La Salle's last six games overall with 138 or fewer combined points in five of those six games, including 133 or fewer in four of them.  They have shot less than 40% from the floor in each of their last seven games.

George Mason is a 14-point favorite tonight so there's a good chance it will be a blowout and fouls won't come into play in the final minutes, which will help us cash this UNDER ticket.  This is my favorite UNDER on the NCAA hardwood tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Atlantic 10 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rhode Island/St. Joe's OVER 153.5

Rhode Island is very much an OVER team ranking 43rd in adjusted tempo.  The Rams are 17-10 OVER in all games this season.  The Rams are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games with 157 or more combined points in five of them.

St. Joe's is one of the best offensive teams in the Atlantic 10.  The Hawks have scored at least 75 points in six of their last seven games overall.  They rank 135th in adjusted tempo so they don't mind getting up and down.

The OVER is 3-0 in Hawks last three games overall, including 166 combined points with Fordham last time out.  This will be yet another shootout involving Rhode Island tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier -1

The Xavier Musketeers are fully healthy and playing as well as anyone in the Big East right now.  The Musketeers have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall to play themselves onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.

Xavier is coming off a 22-point home win over Creighton.  Joe Lunardi has them listed on the First 4 Out line, so they know they still have some work to do to make the NCAA Tournament.  That's why they won't have a letdown here off the Creighton win and despite the fact that they just beat Butler by 13 at home a few weeks ago.

Butler is 6-12 in Big East play this season with all six wins coming against teams that rank in the bottom half of the conference standings, and five of them coming against the bottom 3 teams in the Big East.

I like the fact that Xavier is rested playing just its 2nd game in 10 days with that 22-point win over Creighton being their lone game during this stretch.  I expect a big effort from the Musketeers tonight.  Bet Xavier Wednesday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State/UCF OVER 163.5

These are two dead nuts OVER teams that play at the fastest pace in the Big 12.  UCF ranks 13th in adjusted tempo while Oklahoma State ranks 20th.  So this game will see a ton of possessions.

We saw what happened when these teams got together just a few weeks ago with Oklahoma State winning 104-95 for 199 combined points.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.

It's not like either team shot lights as neither team shot better than 47% from the field.  They combined to go 14-of-51 (27.5%) from 3-point range, so if anything there is room for improvement in the shooting department in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Maryland/Michigan Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on OVER 153.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in Big Ten play Wednesday night when the Maryland Terrapins visit the Michigan Wolverines.  Michigan ranks 61st in adjusted tempo and 22nd in average length of offensive possession, while Maryland ranks 53rd and 23rd, respectively.

So both teams like to get shots up quickly, which will mean a ton of possessions and more opportunities for points in this contest.  Maryland has scored at least 83 points in four of its last six games.  Michigan is coming off consecutive shootouts combining for 166 points with Rutgers and 166 points with Illinois.

Maryland is averaging 82.1 points per game while Michigan is averaging 79.6 points per game this season.  I think both teams get close to 80 in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* BYU/Iowa State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 149

Iowa State is now fully healthy with Jones, Gilbert and Momcilovic back in the lineup.  The Cyclones rank 101st in adjusted tempo and 21st in adjusted offense despite being without these guys at various points this season.  They are a dangerous offensive team when fully healthy as this is the best offense of TJ Otzelberger era by far.

Speaking of elite offense, the BYU Cougars rank 12th in adjusted offense this season.  They rank 4th in effective FG percentage and 26th in 3-point percentage.  They are a very tough team to defend, and that has really been on display here down the stretch.

The Cougars are 6-0 SU in their last six games overall while scoring at least 73 points in all six games, including 91 or more three times.  The Cougars are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall with 148 or more combined points in seven of their last 10 games.  The only games that went under that total were two games against a dead nuts under team in WVU and Kansas State.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* New Mexico/Nevada MWC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 147.5

New Mexico is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in adjusted tempo this season.  The Lobos are scoring 82.7 points per game this season.  They are 3-1 OVER in their last four games with 161 or more combined points in three of those four.  This total of 147.5 is very low for a game involving the Lobos.

Nevada has been playing much better offensively here down the stretch going 6-2 OVER in its last eight games overall while scoring at least 69 points in seven of those eight games.  The Wolf Pack can hang with the Lobos in a shootout as they have already proven that once.

New Mexico beat Nevada 82-81 at home for 163 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Amazingly, neither team shot it that great.  New Mexico shot 46.9% overall while Nevada shot 42.4% overall, yet they still combined for 163 points.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah -3.5

The Utah Utes have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They have gone 15-3 SU & 12-6 ATS at home this season while outscoring opponents by nearly 15 points per game.  Utah is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five Big 12 home games.

West Virginia is all defense and no offense.  The Mountaineers are just 4-8 SU in their last 12 games overall and dangerously close to missing out on the NCAA Tournament.  They have huge home/road splits this season, going 1-6 SU & 3-4 ATS in their last seven Big 12 road games including two straight blowout road losses to BYU by 21 and Texas Tech by 22.

Now the Mountaineers have to play back-to-back games in altitude after that 77-56 loss at BYU on Saturday, they turn around and have to play in Utah on Tuesday.  They have a very short rotation to boot with zero depth.  I don't expect it to go very well for them tonight.  Bet Utah Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nets/Spurs OVER 224

The San Antonio Spurs are really trying to push the tempo with De'Aaron Fox.  That was on display in their last two games beating Memphis 130-128 for 258 combined points and losing to Oklahoma City 146-132 for 278 combined points.  This total of 224 is too low for a game involving the Spurs, who will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

The Brooklyn Nets got good news on the injury front heading into this one as they are expected to have both Cam Thomas (24.3 PPG) and De'Angelo Russell (12.9 PPG, 5.1 APG) healthy for this one.  That makes them a much more potent offensive team, and they should be able to keep up with the Spurs tonight in a shootout as a result.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves -12

The Minnesota Timberwolves are 3-6 SU in their last nine games overall to fall into 9th place in the West in in danger of missing the playoffs.  But this was their toughest stretch of the seasons as they played OKC three times and actually beat them twice.  Five of the losses came to Cleveland, Milwaukee, Houston, OKC and the LA Lakers.

Now the Timberwolves get a break in the schedule and should do some damage moving forward, starting tonight against the Philadelphia 76ers.  I like the fact that the Timberwolves can't afford to take anyone lightly right now, so there will be no letdown for them.  Look for them to put it on the 76ers for four quarters.

Philadelphia (21-39) has nothing to play for at this point.  The 76ers are playing like it going 1-10 SU & 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are coming off a 119-102 home loss to Portland last night, a Blazers team that was playing the 2nd of a back-to-back off an OT game against the Cavaliers the night before.  It was a pitiful performance by the 76ers.

Now it's the 76ers who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, and injuries are mounting.  They have already ruled out Tyrese Maxey for this one.  Kyle Lowry is also out, and Paul George, Quentin Grimes and Justin Edwards are all questionable.  Kelly Oubre is battling illness as well.  This one has blowout written all over it tonight.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Villanova -3.5

The Villanova Wildcats have played their way onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament by going 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  This will be their regular season finale against Georgetown and it is a must-win.

Villanova also wants revenge from a 64-63 home loss to Georgetown on January 20th.  Big man Thomas Sorber (14.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 2.0 BPG, 1.5 SPG) had 15 points and 11 rebounds in that matchup.

Well, the Hoyas are without Sorber for the rest of the season now.  It has not gone well without him in their last three games with three straight losses by double-digits, including a 15-point home loss to Marquette last time out.  Villanova will dominate the paint in Sorber's absence which will be the difference in this game tonight.  Bet Villanova Tuesday.

15* Warriors/Knicks TNT ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 231.5

Stephen Curry suffered an ankle injury last night in a 119-101 win at Charlotte.  He is listed as questionable to play tonight, and I would like the UNDER even if he does play.  The Warriors may be cautious with him and sit him anyway since it's the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The Warriors have been dominant defensively all season, but especially since trading for Jimmy Butler.  They rank 8th in defensive rating on the season, including 4th in their last seven games where they have gone 6-1 SU during this stretch.

The New York Knicks have clearly put an emphasis on defense coming out of the All-Star Break.  The UNDER would be 5-1 in their six games since the break if not for OT.  They have gone for 227 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in five of those six games.  They have allowed 105 points or fewer at the end of regulation in three of those six games.

Karl-Anthony Towns is questionable to play for the Knicks tonight as well, and he means everything to them offensively.  The Knicks and Warriors have combined for 231 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last 11 meetings, making for an 11-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 231.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indiana Pacers -4

The Houston Rockets have really struggled without Fred VanVleet, whom they will be without again tonight.  Their performance on the road has been very concerning going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five road games including upset losses at Brooklyn and at Utah.

This is a tough spot for the Rockets playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 137-128 loss at Oklahoma City last night.  Now they have to play an Indiana Pacers team that loves to push the tempo and will test their tired legs.  This is a very banged up Rockets team with now with several guys playing through injury.

The Pacers have been dominant at home going 18-9 SU at home this season, including 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home games with their only loss coming to the Nuggets on the 2nd of a back-to-back while the Nuggets were rested.  They beat the Bulls by 15, the Raptors by 20, the Clippers by 18 and the Grizzlies by 14 in their four home wins during this stretch.  Bet the Pacers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Magic UNDER 209.5

This will be a rematch from a 104-102 victory by Toronto on Sunday just two days ago.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and I love backing UNDERS in this situation when teams play each other for a 2nd time in 3 days.

Amazingly, the Magic and Raptors combined for just 206 points on Sunday despite these teams combining to make 58 of 72 free throws.  There won't be that many free throws again in the rematch as that is an absurd amount.

The Magic are a dead nuts UNDER team going 39-23 UNDER in all games this season.  The Magic rank 29th in pace, 28th in offensive rating and 2nd in defensive rating this season.  They just got the news that Jalen Suggs would undergo season-ending surgery, and they have been so poor without him offensively running the show.  Now backup PG Cole Anthony is questionable.

The Raptors are playing slower right now and really struggling offensively.  They rank 24th in pace, 28th in offensive rating and 10th in defensive rating in their last nine games.  They have been held to 108 points or fewer in six of those nine games.

The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 207 or fewer combined points in each of the last four.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Seton Hall +10.5

The Creighton Bluejays aren't playing well enough to be double-digit road favorites against Seton Hall tonight.  The Bluejays are 2-3 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They were upset at home by UConn and had lackluster home wins over Georgetown by 11 as 12.5-point favorites and over DePaul by 10 as 16-point favorites.  They lost by 6 at St. John's and by 22 at Xavier in their two road games.

The Seton Hall Pirates have been a very tough out at home here of late.  They are 3-0 ATS in their last three home games with an upset win over UConn as 13.5-point dogs.  They also only lost to Xavier by 7 as 9.5-point dogs and Villanova by 5 as 8-point dogs.  I think at worst they lose this game by single-digits tonight.

Seton Hall wants revenge from a 79-54 road loss at Creighton on January 25th.  The Pirates only trailed by 4 at halftime but the Bluejays went off in the 2nd half.  Creighton shot 58.3% as a team and 42.3% from 3 for the game, and it's hard to see them shooting nearly that well again in the rematch.  Seton Hall is only allowing 66.1 points per game and 43.9% shooting at home and will make the proper adjustments to hold Creighton in check in the rematch.  Bet Seton Hall Tuesday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on UTSA +9

The Memphis Tigers are coming off a huge 88-81 road win at UAB on Sunday as 1-point underdogs.  That win assured that they can now clinch the AAC title with either a win tonight or a home win over USF on Friday.  Knowing they have that game against USF at home in their back pocket, I think this is a huge letdown spot for the Tigers.

UTSA is one of the most underrated teams in the AAC due to its poor 11-17 record this season.  But the Roadrunners are so much better than that record would indicate when you look at the results.  UTSA is 1-6 SU in its last seven games but the six losses all came by 7 points or fewer, so they have been very unlucky in close games.

UTSA took out its frustration with a 84-56 home win over Rice last time out.  Now the Roadrunners will treat this game against ranked Memphis as their 'national championship' game tonight.  An upset win here would make their season.

UTSA will be playing just its 2nd game in 9 days, while Memphis will be playing its 4th game in 10 days.  The Roadrunners have the rest and preparation advantage, and I have no doubt they will be the more motivated team tonight.  Bet UTSA Tuesday.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Miami/Georgia Tech OVER 148.5

The Miami Hurricanes are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 69th in adjusted offense but just 339th in adjusted defense.  The Hurricanes are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 149 points with Virginia Tech, 157 with Duke and 165 with North Carolina.

Georgia Tech is playing in some high-scoring games here down the stretch as well.  The Yellow Jackets are 5-3 OVER in their last eight games overall.  They rank 110th in adjusted tempo and like to play faster.  I don't expect much defense being played in this game with both teams with nothing to play for and looking ahead to the ACC Tournament.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* UNC/VA Tech ESPNU No-Brainer on OVER 149.5

North Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 30th in adjusted tempo, 22nd in adjusted offense and 78th in adjusted defense.  The OVER is 6-0 in Tar Heels last six games overall with 150 or more combined points in five of those six games with the lone exception being 147 against a dead nuts under team in Virginia.

Virginia Tech is 5-3 OVER in its last eight games overall.  The Hokies are coming off a 101-95 (OT) home win over Syracuse in which the game was tied 82-82 at the end of regulation for 164 combined points.  I expect another shootout tonight as this 149.5-point total is very low for a game involving UNC right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Heat UNDER 219.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 28th in pace, 19th in adjusted offense and 12th in adjusted defense.  They combined for just 210 points with New York at the end of regulation in their last game.

The Washington Wizards were more of an over team before trades and injuries.  They were an over team before trading away Kyle Kuzma, and they are even less of an over team now that Jordan Poole (21.0 PPG) is out with an injury.  Malcolm Brogdon (12.7 PPG) is also out.

So the Wizards are relying on old veterans like Kris Middleton and Marcus Smart, and they are a dead nuts UNDER team in their current form.  That has played out recently with the Wizards going 4-1 UNDER in their last five games with 213 or fewer combined points in four of those five games.

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings between the Heat and Wizards with 218 or fewer combined points in three of those four meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Wake Forest/Duke UNDER 145

It's time to 'buy low' on an UNDER tonight.  Wake Forest is 3-0 OVER in its last three games overall, while Duke is 5-0 OVER in its last five games overall.  As a result, books have set this number higher than it should be.

Consider that the 1st meeting between Duke and Wake Forest this season had a total of just 136, so this 145-point total has been set 9 points higher in the rematch.  This despite the fact that Duke beat Wake Forest 63-56 for 119 combined points in that first meeting in an absolute defensive battle.

Both teams profile as UNDER teams because they both play slow, so there will be fewer possessions.  Duke is 262nd in adjusted tempo and 4th in adjusted defense, while Wake Forest is 198th in adjusted tempo, 45th in adjusted defense and just 137th in adjusted offense.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Wake Forest/Duke ESPN No-Brainer on Wake Forest +20.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Duke Blue Devils.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall while continuing to cover massive numbers.  But this has also been their easiest stretch of the conference seasons with their last six wins coming against Stanford, Cal, Virginia, Miami, FSU and Illinois.

Now the Blue Devils have their toughest test since a 77-71 road loss at Clemson.  Wake Forest hung right with Duke at home on January 25th in their first meeting losing 63-56 as 11.5-point dogs.  Now they are 20.5-point road dogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment for flipping home courts.

Wake Forest kept its NCAA Tournament hopes alive with a 74-71 home win over Notre Dame last time out.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Demon Deacons after failing to cover each of their last three.

This is the rare season where the Demon Deacons have actually played their best basketball on the road.  They are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.  They haven't lost a road game by more than 15 points all season.  They haven't lost any of their 29 games by more than 17 points all season, making for a 29-0 system backing the Demon Deacons pertaining to this 20.5-point spread.

This is their last ditch effort to make the NCAA Tournament with an upset of Duke.  They'll be 'all in' tonight, while Duke could be caught looking ahead to its regular season finale against rival UNC.  Bet Wake Forest Monday.

20* Timberwolves/Suns ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 231.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been without Rudy Gobert in each of their last five games and will be without him again tonight.  Four of the five were shootouts because they have had to go more small ball and are a much better offensive team with their small ball lineups, but they miss the Defensive Player of the Year on the other end immensely.

The OVER is 4-1 in Timberwolves last five games overall combining for 236 points with Houston, 253 with Oklahoma City, 242 at the end of regulation with OKC and 233 with Utah.  Naz Reid has been thriving playing center scoring at least 22 points in six of his last seven games.  Small ball has also meant more minutes for youngsters Terrance Shannon Jr. and Rob Dillingham, who are all offense and zero defense.

The Suns are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 11-4 OVER in their last 15 games overall with 227 or more combined points in all 15 games.  They have gone for 233 or more combined points in each of their last five games out of the All-Star Break.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Timberwolves and Suns with 234 or more combined points in all four.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Thunder/Spurs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 236

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team right now going 13-4-1 OVER in their last 17 games overall.  They have gone for 250 or more combined points in four consecutive games coming in.  That includes their 129-121 win at Brooklyn against a Nets team that ranks dead last in offensive rating and dead last in pace.

The San Antonio Spurs are certainly more of an OVER team with De'Aron Fox running the show and without Defensive Player of the Year candidate Victor Wembenyama.  We saw their potential last night when they beat Memphis 130-128 for 258 combined points.  This total of 236 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Memphis/UAB ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 159.5

Both Memphis and UAB are dead nuts OVER teams.  Memphis ranks 41st in adjusted tempo while UAB ranks 89th in adjusted tempo, so there will be a ton of possessions in this game which will lead to more points.  UAB is 36th in adjusted offense but just 276th in adjusted defense.

UAB had no answer for Memphis in their first meeting this season losing 100-77 on the road for 177 combined points.  The Blazers shot just 38.5% as a team in that game and still scored 77, so they are obviously due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 177, 193 and 185 combined points.  This total of 159.5 is very short for a game involving UAB and Memphis.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +11.5

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They had a huge 4th quarter comeback last time out to beat the Boston Celtics 123-116.  That win all but locked up the No. 1 seed in the East for the Cavaliers.  They are fat and happy now, and they won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Blazers today.  I expect them to fall flat on their faces.

Helping our cause is the fact that the Cavaliers will be without their best player in Donavan Mitchell (24.3 PPG), who scored 41 to lead the comeback against Boston on Friday.  They don't have their leader on the court which is another reason they are ripe for a letdown.

The Blazers have quietly gone 14-5 SU & 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  That includes 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games coming out of the All-Star Break.  They have a ton of young talent that not too many bettors know about because they get buried in terms of NBA coverage.  They'll give the Cavaliers a run for their money today.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

15* Evansville/Illinois State MVC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 142.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off today when Illinois State hosts Evansville in this MVC showdown.  This total of 142.5 is too short when you look at how both of these teams are trending right now.

Evansville is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 games overall with 145 or more combined points in nine of those 12 games.  Illinois State is 12-2 OVER in its last 14 games overall with 142 or more combined points in 10 of those 14 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Valparaiso/Illinois-Chicago MVC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 153.5

Both Valparaiso and Illinois-Chicago profile as OVER teams.  Valparaiso is 17-11 OVER in all games and 9-4 OVER in road games.  The Beacons rank 124th in adjusted tempo and 282nd in adjusted defense.

Illinois-Chicago is 16-11 OVER in all games and 7-4 OVER in home games.  The Flames rank 75th in adjusted tempo, 141st in adjusted offense and 203rd in adjusted defense.  Both teams like to play fast so there will be a lot of possessions and very little defense being played.

Illinois-Chicago won 81-74 at Valparaiso in their first meeting this season for 155 combined points.  Neither team shot it well so there is room for improvement.  The Flames shot 44.1% overall and 31.6% from 3, while the Beacons shot 44.1% overall and 30% from 3.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Murray State/Belmont OVER 150

Belmont is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bruins rank 39th in adjusted tempo, 64th in adjusted offense and 278th in adjusted defense.  The Bruins are 19-10 OVER in all games and 11-3 OVER in home games.  They will control the tempo playing at home today.

Murray State is 13-4 OVER in road games this season.  They struggle to control the tempo on the road because they like to play slower.  They are coming off two shootouts losing 85-83 to Bradley and beating Indiana State 85-75.

Belmont beat Murray State 95-77 for 172 combined points in their first meeting this season.  So we have 22 points to work with in the rematch with this total of just 150.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Wisconsin/Michigan State CBS ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin +4.5

The Wisconsin Badgers are better than the Michigan State Spartans.  They should not be catching points here, and the books are giving the Spartans too much credit for home-court advantage.  This is a game I fully expect the Badgers to win outright.

The Badgers are 14-3 SU & 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  The three losses came by 2 to UCLA, by 8 to Maryland after blowing a late lead and in OT to Oregon after blowing a double-digit lead.  They are very close to being 17-0 during this stretch.

The spot is a bad one for the Michigan State Spartans.  After upsetting rival Michigan on the road, they beat Maryland on a 3-pointer at the buzzer on the road.  Now they return home fat and happy.  Remember, they recently lost to Indiana as 11.5-point home favorites.  Bet Wisconsin Sunday.

15* Nuggets/Celtics ABC ANNIHILATOR on Denver +5

The Boston Celtics blew a huge lead in the 4th quarter to the Cleveland Cavaliers last time out and lost 123-116.  That was their last stand to try and catch the Cavaliers in the East for the top seed.  Now they are pretty much locked into the No. 2 seed, and I question their motivation the rest of the way.  I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

The Denver Nuggets are fighting for the No. 2 seed in the West and are playing their best basketball of the season. The Nuggets are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games overall and will give the Celtics a run for their money tonight.  That's especially the case with the Celtics without two starters in Holiday and Porzingis.  Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

15* Nuggets/Celtics ABC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 234.5

I love taking UNDERS in these early start time games in the NBA because players aren't used to playing this early.  They tend to be sleep walking through these games.

I also like the fact that the Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis, so they aren't nearly as explosive offensively with him on the sidelines.  They have to hang their hats more on defense.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* SIU/Indiana State MVC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 156

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team going 20-8 OVER in all games this season.  The Sycamores rank 10th in adjusted tempo this season playing as fast as almost anyone in the country.  They will control the tempo playing at home today.

Southern Illinois also likes to get up and down ranking 140th in adjusted tempo.  The Salukis are coming off two very high scoring games losing 83-79 to Valparaiso for 162 combined points and beating Illinois State 88-79 for 167 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Gonzaga/San Francisco ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco +9.5

San Francisco has been one of the most underrated teams in the country here down the stretch.  The Dons are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their two losses both coming on the road to the two best teams in the conference in St. Mary's and Gonzaga.

They avenged their loss to St. Mary's with a 65-64 home win over the Gaels as 5-point dogs.  Now they are looking to avenge their 88-77 road loss at Gonzaga and are catching 9.5 points in the rematch.  They are due some positive shooting regression after shooting 43.3% in that first meeting while the Bulldogs shot 52.3%, yet they only lost by 11 on the road.

While this isn't a true home game, it will still be played at the Chase Center in San Francisco so it will feel like one.  And San Francisco is 16-0 SU at home this season.  Bet San Francisco Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +8

Boston College is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games overall.  That includes three OT losses to UNC and Syracuse on the road and Notre Dame at home.  They beat VA Tech by 18 and Georgia Tech by 15 before going on the road and losing by 18 at Stanford.

I think that 18-point loss at Stanford last time out has the Eagles undervalued coming into this game against California.  That was a tough travel spot, but now the Eagles have been out West for the last three days and have had time to adjust.  They should come back with a much better effort against Cal tonight.

This is also a big step down in class for the Eagles against Cal, which is 0-5 SU in its last five games overall.  The Bears have no business being this big of a favorite tonight.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* WCC GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland ML -135

No team is flying under the radar quite like the Portland Pilots here down the stretch.  The Pilots are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  That includes outright upsets victories over Oregon State by 12 as 13.5-point dogs, Loyola-Marymount by 11 as 5-point dogs and Pacific by 8 as 3-point dogs.  The Pilots only lost by 13 at Saint Mary's as 23.5-point dogs as well.  They also beat Pepperdine by 20 twice.

ATS margin is a great way to tell just how undervalued a team is.  Well, the Pilots are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall while covering the spread by a combined 79.5 points in those five games, or an average of roughly 16 points per game.  They have covered all five games by at least 10.5 points.

The Pilots remain undervalued as short road favorites against a San Diego team that has nothing to play for and is locked into the last seed in the WCC Tournament.  The Toreros are 4-26 this season, including 0-16 SU in their last 16 games overall.  They lost by 10 at Portland in their first meeting this season, and it will be more of the same in the rematch.  Bet Portland on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Arizona/Iowa State ESPN No-Brainer on Iowa State -6

Iowa State is going to be fully healthy for this game with Keshon Gilbert (14.1 PPG, 4.5 APG) returning to the lineup.  Curtis Jones (16.9 PPG) returned to the lineup last game, and Milan Momcilovic (10.6 PPG) looks back to full strength after missing seven games in the middle of conference season.  Iowa State's only loss this season when fully healthy came at the buzzer against No. 1 Auburn on a neutral.

Off an upset loss at Oklahoma State and out for revenge on Arizona, I expect a huge effort from the Cyclones today.  They didn't lose a single home game all last year and they have lost just one home game this season.  The Cyclones are 33-1 SU in their last 34 home games.  They have arguably the best home-court advantage in the entire country, and it will be lit inside Hilton Coliseum for a Saturday night game.

Iowa State lost at Arizona in OT after Caleb Love hit a 65-footer at the buzzer to force OT.  The Cyclones have been in a bit of a spiral since, but it has been more due to injuries than to the nature of that defeat.  They avenge that loss in a big way with a blowout home win tonight.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis Grizzlies -9

The Memphis Grizzlies are very predictable.  They struggle against the top teams in the NBA, but they crush the worst teams in the NBA like the San Antonio Spurs.  I think we are getting the Grizzlies at a discount after an upset home loss to the New York Knicks last night.

The books are factoring in that that Grizzlies are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But the Grizzlies are one of the deepest teams in the NBA so they can handle these situations better than most.  Plus, there is zero travel involved as the Grizzlies get to stay at home, and they should still be pretty fresh considering they had two days off prior to last night's loss to New York.  The Grizzlies are 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back this season.

The San Antonio Spurs have been a disaster since losing Victor Wembenyama to a season-ending injury.  The Spurs are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall losing by 15 at home to Detroit, by 18 at New Orleans, by 6 at New Orleans and by 12 at Houston.

The Grizzlies have owned the Spurs this season going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in three meetings.  They won by 14 and by 28 in San Antonio and by 19 at home.  Wembenyama had 27 points in that 19-point loss, 13 points, 12 rebounds and 8 blocks in that 14-point loss, and 19 points, 12 rebounds and 6 blocks in that 28-point loss.  He'll be missed in the 4th and final meeting to say the least.  Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Rockets OVER 227

The Sacramento Kings are fully healthy and thriving offensively right now.  They have scored at least 118 points in six of their last seven games overall.  I think they'll at least reach that number again tonight.

The Houston Rockets are also thriving offensively scoring at least 115 points in three of their four games coming out of the All-Star Break.  They have been playing faster without PG Fred VanVleet and they are fully healthy otherwise.

This will be the 3rd meeting between the Kings and Rockets this season.  Each of the first two were high-scoring as the Kings won 120-111 for 231 combined points and 132-127 for 259 combined points.  It will be more of the same here tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rhode Island/UMass OVER 155.5

This matchup between Rhode Island and UMass will see more possessions than almost any other game today.  Rhode Island ranks 33rd in adjusted tempo while UMass ranks 39th in adjusted tempo.

Rhode Island has really been an OVER team since getting fully healthy here down the stretch going 5-2 OVER in its last seven games with 157 or more combined points four times.

That includes their 88-82 home win over UMass on January 29th that saw 170 combined points.  So we have 14.5 points to work with in the rematch here, and I think we get there easily considering UMass shot just 41.7% in that first meeting.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Vanderbilt +3

Vanderbilt is 13-2 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season.  The Commodores have impressive home wins over Ole Miss, Texas, Kentucky and Tennessee this season.  Now they are ready to add Missouri to the list.

The Commodores want revenge on the Tigers, who won 75-66 in Columbia in their first meeting this season.  Vanderbilt shot 40.4% while Missouri shot 49% in that game.  It's safe to say the Commodores are due some positive shooting regression at home in the rematch.

Missouri is just 3-5 SU in true road games this season coming off a 7-point loss at Arkansas.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* Big 12 Total DOMINATOR on Cincinnati/Houston OVER 125.5

Houston got to face Iowa State without its top two scorers and got to 127 combined points and Texas Tech without two of its top three scorers and got to 130 combined points in its last two games coming in.  The Cougars and their opponents have combined for at least 127 points in seven of their last eight games overall to make for a 7-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 125.5-point total.  This is the best Houston offense of the Kelvin Sampson era ranking 8th in adjusted offense.

Cincinnati is 5-2 OVER in its last seven games overall with 136 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  That makes for a 6-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 125.5-point total.  The Bearcats are really thriving offensively here down the stretch scoring at least 69 points in six of their last seven games overall.  This is such a low total for how these two teams are trending.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* CBB GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati +15

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Houston Cougars.  Houston is coming off two very satisfying wins over Iowa State at home and Texas Tech on the road.  The win over the Red Raiders was extra sweet because they avenged an earlier home loss to them.

But those two wins come with a big asterisk.  Iowa State was without its top two scorers and the Cougars were in a dog fight with them eventually winning by 9 as 11.5-point closing favorites.  And then they lucked out against Texas Tech who was without 2 of its top 3 scorers as late scratches.  The Cougars took a ton of money and needed to pull away in the final seconds to win by 8.

Now let's look at what Houston has on deck.  They have Kansas on deck at home for Senior Night on Monday and could easily be looking ahead to that game.  They close the season at Baylor.  So this is the ultimate sandwich spot after facing ISU and Texas Tech with Kansas and Baylor on deck.  This is where the Cougars will be flat, which will make it very difficult for them to cover this inflated 15-point spread.

Cincinnati is playing its best basketball of the season right now fighting hard to make the NCAA Tournament.  A win over Houston would stamp their ticket and they know it.  The Bearcats are 5-2 SU & 5-0-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They won by 10 at UCF, by 18 at home over BYU, by 10 at home over Utah, by 12 at home over TCU and by 2 at home over Baylor.  They only lost by 11 at Iowa State as 11.5-point dogs and by 3 at WVU as 3-point dogs.

Five of the last six meetings between Cincinnati and Houston have been decided by 13 points or fewer.  This one will be much closer than expected.  I like the fact that both teams play slow so this game will see very few possessions.  Houston ranks 361st in adjusted tempo while Cincinnati ranks 294th.  Houston hasn't won any of its last 10 games by more than 15 points, making for a 10-0 system backing the Bearcats pertaining to this 15-point spread.  Bet Cincinnati Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier ML -135

The Xavier Musketeers are fully healthy and playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have been off since February 23rd, so they have had an entire week to rest and prepare to get revenge on Creighton.

Creighton beat Xavier 86-77 at home in their first meeting this season on January 29th.  Xavier shot 42.4% from the field while Creighton shot 52.6% from the field, so the Musketeers are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.

Xavier is 13-2 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this season.  Their only two losses came to St. John's by 10 and Marquette by 2.  They have won each of their last five home games including a victory over UConn.  They have one of the better home-court advantages in the Big East.

Creighton is struggling down the stretch going 2-2 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Bluejays were upset at home by UConn and had lackluster home wins over Georgetown by 11 as 12.5-point favorites and DePaul by 10 as 16-point favorites.  They also lost at St. John's in their lone road game during this stretch.  Bet Xavier on the Money Line Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on Colorado State ML -135

Colorado State is 12-2 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this season with one of the better home-court advantages in the Mountain West.  The Rams are 12-3 SU & 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall and grossly undervalued.  All three losses came on the road to three of the top teams in the conference in SDSU, New Mexico and Utah State.

Now the Rams want revenge on the Aggies after losing 93-85 to them on the road in their first meeting this season.  Utah State shot 59.3% from the field while Colorado State shot just 45.5%.  The Aggies also shot 12-of-23 (52.2%) from 3-point range and still only won by 8.  It's safe to say the Rams are due some positive shooting regression in their favor in the rematch.

Utah State has been vulnerable on the road.  They have road losses to Boise State, UNLV and New Mexico and barely beat Wyoming by 4 and Fresno State by 8, which are two of the worst teams in the conference.  They are coming off a 17-point loss at Boise State.  Bet Colorado State on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Auburn/Kentucky ABC No-Brainer on Kentucky +5.5

Kentucky is close to back to full strength and a very dangerous team when that's the case.  Lamont Butler (12.3 PPG, 4.7 APG) returned from a three-game absence to help lead the Wildcats to an 83-82 win at Oklahoma last time out.  He should be even stronger in this game.

Kentucky has been a wagon at home this season.  The Wildcats are 14-2 SU at home with impressive wins over Vanderbilt by 21, Tennessee by 11, South Carolina by 23, Texas A&M by 12 and Florida by 6.  They know they can play with Auburn at home.

Auburn has already clinched at least a share of the SEC title and will have a hard time being all that motivated over their final three games of the season because of it.  I think they are ripe for an upset today.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Auburn/Kentucky OVER 164.5

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team especially since they have a healthy Lamont Butler (12.3 PPG, 4.7 APG) back in the lineup after a three-game absence.  The Wildcats rank 36th in adjusted tempo, 6th in adjusted offense and just 62nd in adjusted defense.  They have scored at least 75 points in nine consecutive games and 82 or more in three straight.

Auburn also prefers to play faster ranking 124th in adjusted tempo and 1st in adjusted offense.  They are a tough team to tame on offense, and that has been on display scoring at least 80 points in eight of their last nine games overall while going 7-2 OVER in those nine games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Carolina ML -115

South Carolina finally picked up its first SEC win of the season in a 84-69 home win over Texas.  Predictably, the Gamecocks fell flat on their faces last game losing by 30 at Missouri.  Now it's time to 'buy low' on the Gamecocks today.

It's time to 'sell high' on Arkansas, which has gone 5-3 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Razorbacks were getting by without Boogie Fland (15.1 PPG, 5.7 APG) after he suffered a season-ending injury.  But now they are also without Adou Thiero (15.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.7 SPG), and they cannot afford to be without both of them.

South Carolina is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six SEC home games with that 15-point win over Texas, plus a 4-point loss to Ole Miss as 4-point dogs, a 4-point loss to Texas A&M as 5.5-point dogs, a 5-point loss in OT to Mississippi State as 7-point dogs, a 1-point loss to Florida as 11.5-point dogs and a 3-point loss to Auburn as 16.5-point dogs.  The Gamecocks have shown they can play with the top teams in the league at home, and now they actually take a big step down in class here against the Razorbacks and should take advantage.  Bet South Carolina Saturday.

15* ACC Total DOMINATOR on Clemson/Virginia OVER 131.5

The books keep setting these Virginia totals too low because they play slow.  Virginia is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games overall and 14-3 OVER in its last 17 games.  Virginia and its opponents have combined for at least 130 points in 11 consecutive games and 133 or more nine times.

Clemson is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall with 148 or more combined points in five of those six games.  The Tigers have scored at least 72 points in all six games and 77 or more five times.  Virginia has scored at least 73 points in six of its last eight games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami/UNC OVER 160.5

North Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 30th in adjusted tempo and 22nd in adjusted offense.  The Tar Heels are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall with 170 or more combined points in three of those five games.

Now they face the perfect OVER partner in the Miami Hurricanes.  Miami is 6-3 OVER in its last nine games overall with 166 or more combined points three times.  The Hurricanes rank 67th in adjusted offense but just 334th in adjusted defense.  UNC will likely hang close to 100 to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 Total DOMINATOR on St. Joe's/Fordham OVER 150

St. Joe's is an elite offensive team that has scored at least 72 points in 16 of its last 20 games overall and 75 or more in 15 of those.  They face a terrible Fordham defense that ranks 240th in adjusted defense.

The Rams like to pay fast as they rank 52nd in adjusted tempo and will control the tempo playing at home.  The OVER is 6-2 in Rams last eight games overall.  The OVER is 3-0 in St. Joe's last three games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.