20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2 

This is the perfect spot to fade the Memphis Grizzlies.  They are coming off a 128-141 shootout loss to the Golden State Warriors on the road last night.  So they will be tired now as they are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 12 days tonight. 

The Kings come in rested with yesterday off and motivated for a victory following an upset home loss to the Suns.  It was an understandable loss as they were coming off a 109-95 upset win over the Cavs as 9.5-point dogs, so it was clearly a letdown spot.  Look for them to be refocused and ready to go tonight against the fatigued Grizzlies. 

Sacramento is 10-1 ATS off a loss to a division opponent over the last two seasons.  The Kings are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite.  Memphis is 2-11 ATS when the total is 190 to 195.5 this season.  The Grizzlies are 2-11 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season.  Sacramento is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss.  Bet the Kings Sunday. 

20* Georgia/Kentucky SEC Sunday No-Brainer on Georgia +10 

The Kentucky Wildcats are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers off their 90-61 win over rival Louisville on Friday.  Well, Louisville isn’t the same team without Rick Pitino and is clearly down this season. 

That win has the betting public quickly forgetting that the Wildcats lost 75-83 to UCLA in their previous game.  I think the Wildcats came out inspired because of that loss.  But now they won’t have much left in the tank as they will be playing their 2nd game in 3 days here. 

Georgia, on the other hand, hasn’t played since an impressive 84-66 home victory as 2-point favorites over Temple on December 22nd.  This is the best Georgia team that Mark Fox has had in some time as the Bulldogs are off to a 9-2 start and have some NBA talent.  They are more than capable of going toe-to-toe with this Kentucky outfit that clearly isn’t as good as in years’ past. 

Georgia is 10-1 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  Georgia is 9-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 80% or better over the last two seasons.  Roll with Georgia Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +7.5 

What do the Chicago Bulls have to do to get any love from the books?  They are once again catching too many points here as 7.5-point road underdogs to the Washington Wizards. 

All the Bulls have done is gone 10-2 straight up in their last 12 games and 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games.  This run has coincided with Nikola Mirotic joining the lineup over the past 12 games.  There’s no reason to stop backing them now. 

I think the Wizards are getting love from oddsmakers from their 121-103 win over the Rockets on Friday.  But that was an awful spot for the Rockets as they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and they were without Chris Paul.  They had blown a 26-point lead to the Celtics the previous night and were in a hangover spot because of it. 

The Bulls are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a win.  Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The road team is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  The underdog is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Take the Bulls Sunday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence +9 

The Providence Friars came into Big East play underrated due to their 2-9 ATS mark.  But they had a ton of injuries in non-conference play, and then almost everyone got healthy heading into their showdown with St. John’s on Thursday. 

I promptly backed the Friars in that game and they delivered with an emphatic 94-72 victory as 6-point road underdogs.  I’ll back them again here as they are simply catching too many points as 9-point road underdogs at Creighton. 

Providence is going to want some revenge from a 58-70 loss to Creighton in the Big East Tournament last year.  And home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team has won three of the last four meetings outright, including both meetings last year.  Providence won 68-66 as 7-point road dogs at Creighton last year and returned all five starters from that team. 

The Friars are 7-0 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.  Providence is 10-2 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Friars are 16-3 ATS after two straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons.  Providence is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 vs. Big East opponents.  The Friars are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Bluejays are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Providence Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Nuggets OVER 215.5 

The 76ers are a much better team with Joel Embiid in the lineup, but they are also a much worse defensive team without him.  And that leads me to take the OVER here in this game between the 76ers and Nuggets tonight with Embiid out.  The 76ers play at a much faster tempo without him because they don’t have to run their offense through him.  They also play little to no defense. 

These two teams are mirror images of one another for the most part.  They both have skilled big men, they both thrive on offense, and they both play little defense.  The Nuggets average 111.7 points per game at home this season and give up 105.8 points per game overall.  The 76ers are averaging 107.9 point points per game overall and giving up 110.7 points per game on the road. 

The Nuggets are coming off a 125-128 overtime loss at Minnesota, while the 76ers are coming off a 110-114 loss in Portland.  The last time these two teams met up came in Denver last year with the 76ers winning 124-122 for 246 combined points. 

The OVER is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The OVER is 4-1 in 76ers last five vs. Western Conference foes.  Denver is 16-3 OVER in home games off a division game over the last three seasons.  The Nuggets are 10-1 OVER after a combined score of 245 points or more over the last two years.  Denver is 32-11 OVER versus poor defensive teams allow 106 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday. 

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Marshall -2 

The Marshall Thundering Herd have been one of the most underrated teams in the country since Dan D’Antoni took over a few years ago.  They are off to a 10-4 start this season, and they are 27-14 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons. 

Marshall is a perfect 9-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.6 points per game on average.  Now they face a LA Tech team that is 0-3 in true road games this season.  I think we are getting quite the discount here with Marshall as only a 2-point home favorite. 

LA Tech is 2-10 ATS in Saturday road games over the last three seasons.  Marshall is 6-0 ATS off two straight wins by 15 points or more over the last three years.  The Thundering Herd are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet Marshall Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Alabama +1

The No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies are a good team to fade opening SEC play.  They are overvalued due to their 11-1 start.  But this isn’t the same team that they were early in the season due to all the injuries and suspensions here of late. 

That has shown up in their last two games as the Aggies only beat Northern Kentucky by 6 and Buffalo by 16 at home.  Now they will be playing just their second true road games of the entire season.  And they are missing leading scorer DJ Hogg (14.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg) due to a suspension and third-leading scorer Admon Gilder (12.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg) due to a knee injury. 

Alabama was banged-up early but now is healthy and will be a dangerous team moving forward under Avery Johnson.  The Crimson Tide have gone 5-1 at home this season with solid wins over Texas-Arlington, LA Tech and Rhode Island. 

Texas A&M is 3-11 ATS following an ATS win over the last two seasons.  Alabama is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games after scoring 50 points or fewer.  The Crimson Tide are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Aggies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Take Alabama Saturday. 

25* NBA Revenge GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls -2.5 

The Chicago Bulls are 9-2 SU & 10-1 ATS since Nikola Mirotic made his season debut.  They are getting contributions from everywhere and continue to be one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA at this point in the season. 

Now the mission will be to avenge a 96-98 road loss at Indiana the game before this streak started.  The Bulls led that game 83-69 entering the fourth quarter, but were outscored 29-13 in the final period.  There’s no question they haven’t forgotten that loss and will want to get their revenge at home this time around. 

I like their chances considering Indiana is likely to be without its best player in Victor Oladipo in this one.  Oladipo missed the last game with knee soreness and is doubtful to play tonight.  It would be a huge loss for the Pacers as he averages 24.9 points per game and is their emotional leader. 

The Bulls are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 6-0 ATS in their last six home games and 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The home team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings and is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings.  Take the Bulls Friday. 

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Illinois +16 

The Iowa Hawkeyes are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  This is a team that lost by 24 to VA Tech, by 9 to LA Lafayette, but 8 to South Dakota State and by 13 to Indiana among their six losses already this season. 

But people are quick to forget those awful losses because the Hawkeyes have won four in a row coming into this game, including covering three straight spreads.  But those four wins came against Southern University, Drake, Southern Utah and Colorado.  It hasn’t exactly been murderer’s row to say the least. 

Now the Hawkeyes have to face a game Northern Illinois team that hasn’t lost any game by more than 14 points this season.  The Huskies covered as 15.5-point underdogs in a 14-point loss at Iowa State, the same Iowa State team that beat Iowa 84-78.  Even more impressively, they only lost 70-79 at Marquette as 16.5-point dogs. 

I think this is a lookahead spot for Iowa to a big showdown with Michigan on January 2nd as they get back into conference play.  NIU is 74-46 ATS in its last 120 games as a dog of 10 or more points.  The Huskies are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Roll with Northern Illinois Friday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 

The Minnesota Timberwolves will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a grueling 128-125 overtime victory over the Denver Nuggets last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight, especially since they are expected to be without starting PG Jeff Teague. 

Milwaukee comes into this game highly motivated for a victory after back-to-back losses to Charlotte and Chicago.  The Bucks will be the much fresher team as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight. 

The home team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  The Bucks own the Timberwolves, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  They won their last three home meetings with the Timberwolves by 7, 15 and 14 points.  The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings overall. 

The Timberwolves are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Bucks are 3-0-1 ATS In their last four games vs. at team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 1-8 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Timberwolves are 17-42 ATS in their last 59 after scoring 120 points or more in their previous game.  The Bucks are 25-12 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games over the past three seasons.  Bet the Bucks Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Bradley/Drake OVER 139

The Drake Bulldogs play an up-tempo system under first-year head coach Niko Medved now.  The betting markets have been slow to catch up as the OVER is 7-3 in all Drake games this season.  I look for a high-scoring affair tonight in their conference opener with Bradley. 

Drake is putting up 79.5 points per game and giving up 77.6 points per game on the season.  They are shooting 41% from 3-point range which has been the key to their offensive success.  But they still don’t play any defense, giving up 47.4% shooting to opponents. 

Just looking at this head-to-head history it’s easy to see there’s value with the OVER.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings, and that was before Medved was head coach at Drake.  They combined for 143 or more points in four of the five meetings.  And they averaged 145.0 combined points per game in those five meetings.  Drake will control the tempo playing at home tonight. 

Drake is 8-1 OVER at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The OVER is 9-1 in Drake’s last 10 December games.  The OVER is 5-1 in Bulldogs last six games overall.  The OVER is 9-2 in Bulldogs last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 45-20 in Bulldogs last 65 home games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Providence +6.5 

The Providence Friars are are undervalued right now because of a 2-9 ATS start to the season.  But that is largely due to some significant injuries, and this team is getting healthy heading into conference season.  I expect them to make a statement with likely an upset victory over St. John’s tonight, though we’ll take the points for some insurance. 

St. John’s is getting a lot of love due to its 10-2 start to the season.  But the Red Storm have played a considerably weaker schedule than Providence.  They still haven’t played a true road game, and they lost to the best teams they faced in Missouri (82-90) and Arizona State (70-82) on a neutral court.  The Red Storm are still without their best player in G Marcus Lovett, who is doubtful tonight with an ankle injury. 

Providence is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with St. John’s.  Home-court advantage has meant very little as the road team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Providence has won its last three trips to St. John’s by 11, 14 and 17 points. 

The Friars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big East opponents.  Providence is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games.  St. John’s is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Providence Thursday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +9.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are in a big hangover spot tonight against the Sacramento Kings.  They just lost to their biggest rivals in the Golden State Warriors 99-92 on Christmas Day.  There’s no way they will bring the same intensity to this game against the Kings that they did against the Warriors. 

That’s especially the case considering they just beat the Kings 101-95 as 12.5-point home favorites earlier this month.  They will think they can just show up and win, while the Kings will be ultra motivated to get revenge and pull off the upset. 

I realize the Kings played last night against the Clippers on the road, but that was a blowout and they won’t be fatigued because of it.  They were probably looking ahead to this game.  And this will be just their 3rd game in 7 days, so the effects of the back-to-back are a non-factor here. 

Cleveland is 0-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40% this season.  The Cavaliers are 3-14 ATS vs. teams with losing records this season.  Cleveland is 0-12 ATS as a favorite of 9.5 or more points this season.  The Cavaliers are 5-21 ATS as a favorite this year.  Bet the Kings Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado State +11.5 

The head-to-head series between Colorado State and Boise State has been remarkably close.  That’s why the Rams getting 11.5 points here is way too much, and I think there’s a ton of value with this double-digit underdog tonight. 

Indeed, each of the last seven meetings in this series have been decided by 7 points or fewer.  They have been decided by 3, 1, 7, 4, 4, 4, and 6 points in the last seven meetings, respectively.  Colorado State has gone 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. 

Boise State is 1-8 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are actually losing 74.4 to 74.6 on average in this spot.  The Rams are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 conference games.  The Broncos are 1-8 ATS in their last nine conference games.  Roll with Colorado State Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets +1.5 

The Boston Celtics are running on fumes right now.  They haven’t had two straight days off since November 28-29.  They will be playing their 11th game in 19 days here tonight, and they have a home game against Houston on deck tomorrow. 

It’s no wonder the Celtics are currently going through their roughest stretch of the season.  They have lost three of their last four to Miami, New York and Washington.  The Celtics are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. 

Making matters worse for the Celtics is that they are banged-up right now.  They are without Marcus Morris, Jaylen Brown and Semi Ojeleye for this game.  Their depth, which has been a huge strength up to this point, has been compromised. 

The Hornets are fresh and ready to go tonight as they have had three days off since beating the Bucks 111-106 at home on Saturday.  They are also extremely healthy right now for the first time basically all season as they only significant player they are missing is bench player Cody Zeller. 

The Hornets blew a 57-41 halftime lead and lost 87-90 at Boston in their only meeting against the Celtics this season.  They will be motivated for revenge at home this time around.  The Hornets are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days.  Take the Hornets Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -1.5 

The Detroit Pistons are getting zero respect from oddsmakers as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Indiana Pacers tonight.  They are 4-1 in their last five games overall and deserve to be getting more respect here tonight.  One of those was a 104-98 road win at Indiana as 5-point underdogs. 

The Pacers are just 3-3 in their last six games.  Their three wins came against Brooklyn (twice) and Atlanta, two of the worst teams in the NBA.  Now they have to travel and face a Pistons team that has a huge home-court advantage over the past several seasons, going 10-5 at home this year. 

The Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on three or more days’ rest. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The favorite is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Pistons Tuesday. 

20* Rockets/Thunder NBA No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City +2 

The Oklahoma City Thunder have had this game circled all offseason.  They lost 4-1 to the Rockets in the playoffs with three of those losses coming by 6 points or fewer.  They were a one-man show with Russell Westbrook then, but that’s the case no longer now. 

The Thunder have finally started to gel with Paul George and Carmelo Anthony.  They are playing their best basketball of the season right now, going 6-1 in their last seven games overall coming in.  They are primed to upset the Houston Rockets on Christmas Day. 

The Rockets have struggled of late with back-to-back upset home losses to the Lakers are 15-point favorites and the Clippers as 12.5-point favorites.  It’s easy to see why they’ve struggled with their injuries right now.  Chris Paul has missed the past couple games and is doubtful, Luc Mbah a Moute remains out, and Clint Capela is questionable. 

The Thunder are 40-18-3 ATS in their last 61 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Oklahoma City is 12-4 at home this season, winning by 7.0 points per game on average.  Take the Thunder Monday. 

15* 76ers/Knicks ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on New York -3 

One of the best bets of the early NBA season is backing the New York Knicks when at home.  They are 15-5 SU & 15-5 ATS in their 20 home games this year, winning by an average of 7.0 points per game.  Madison Square Garden is becoming the home-court advantage that it used to be. 

Now the Knicks get to host the struggling Philadelphia 76ers, who are just 1-9 SU in their last 10 games overall.  The 76ers are also just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games.  They continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers night in and night out. 

The 76ers are dealing with a bunch of injuries right now, too.  Markelle Fultz is out, J.J. Redick is questionable and Joel Embiid is nursing a back injury, though he is likely to play today.  The Knicks are basically fully healthy outside of Tim Hardaway. 

New York is 7-0 ATS in home games after having won four or five of its last six games this season.  The 76ers are 0-8-1 ATS when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  New York is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games.  Roll with the Knicks Monday. 

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +8 

The Phoenix Suns continue to get no respect from oddsmakers since trading away Eric Bledsoe and losing Devin Booker to injury.  But this team has arguably been better since because they are so deep.  And they consistently catch more points in the underdog role than they should be getting, which is the case once again tonight as 8-point home dogs to the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

The Suns have gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have only gone 4-7 SU during this stretch, but only three of those seven losses came by more than this 8-point spread.  They have only played four games at home during this stretch, and only one of those game resulted in a loss by more than 8 points. 

Phoenix has played Minnesota extremely tough this season.  This will be the 4th and final meeting of the season, and the Suns are 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their first three meetings.  They won 118-110 as 10-point home dogs, won 108-106 as 12-point road dogs, and only lost 108-119 as 11-point road dogs for their only push.  So they have actually played the Timberwolves very evenly, and they should be able to stay within 8 points at home again. 

Minnesota is 21-37 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Timberwolves ar e3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning % of less than .400.  The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last five Saturday games.  Phoenix is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Suns Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz PK 

I love the spot for the Utah Jazz tonight.  They had yesterday off.  That followed a 100-89 home win over the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday, which came after an ugly 79-107 road loss at Oklahoma City on Wednesday.  Now the Jazz will be out for revenge getting to face the Thunder just three days later, but at Salt Lake City this time around. 

And the Thunder are extremely vulnerable coming into this game.  They won’t be motivated to beat a team they just blew out three days ago.  And they are coming off an emotional buzzer-beating 120-117 home win over the Hawks last night as 11.5-point home favorites.  It’s a clear letdown spot for them. 

Plus, the Thunder are running on fumes right now.  Not only will they be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, they will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days.  The Thunder haven’t had back-to-back days off since November 27-28.  This is such a tired team right now, and it helps explain why they are just 10-21 ATS on the season, including 5-11 SU & 4-12 ATS in road games. 

Utah 9-1 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season, including a perfect 7-0 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more.  The Thunder are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Oklahoma City is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  Utah is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games.  The home team is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Jazz Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Hornets UNDER 212 

This is one of my favorite situations to back an UNDER.  This is a home-and-home situation between the Bucks and Hornets.  These teams just played last night with the Bucks winning 109-104 at home.  Now they play again a day later in Charlotte this time around. 

So they combined for 213 points last night, and now the total is set at 212.  The second meeting in these home-and-home situations is almost always lower scoring than the first.  And I expect that to be the case here as these teams are obviously extremely familiar with one another. 

In fact, this will actually be the 4th and final meeting of the season between these teams already.  It will be their 4th meeting in a two months as their first meeting occurred on October 23rd.  No two teams are more familiar with each other than the Hornets and Bucks this season, which favors the defenses. 

Milwaukee is 39-22 UNDER in its last 61 road games where the total is 210 to 219.5.  Charlotte is 21-10 UNDER after having lost three of its last four games over the past two seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Hornets last four games playing on 0 days’ rest.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Hornets last 10 games when their opponent allowed 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia 76ers +10.5 

I love the Philadelphia 76ers in this spot.  This is a home-and-home situation after the 76ers lost 109-114 at home to the Toronto on Thursday.  Now they get their shot at revenge only two days later and are catching 10.5 points in the rematch to boot.  I’ll gladly back the more motivated team catching double-digit points here. 

The 76ers are certainly a ‘buy low’ team right now after going just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games.  But they were never once a double-digit underdog in those 13 games.  They were favored in eight of them.  Now they’re back to their more preferred role as underdogs. 

The Raptors are a great ‘sell high’ candidate right now.  They have gone 11-1 SU in their last 12 games while covering each of their last four against the spread.  But it has come against an extremely soft schedule, and it’s worth noting the Raptors are just 5-7 SU against teams who are above .500 this season.  They aren’t as good as they’re perceived to be right now. 

Plays against any team (Toronto) off two or more consecutive road wins, in December games are 76-35 (68.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on any team (Philadelphia) off a home loss to a division rival against opponent off a home win against a division foe are 49-18 (73.1%) ATS over the last five years.  Philadelphia is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the 76ers Saturday. 

15* Ohio State/UNC CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Ohio State +7 

Former Butler head coach Chris Holtmann was a great hire at Ohio State.  After a semi slow start to the season, this team has really kicked it into gear of late.  I think we are getting the Buckeyes at a great value here against UNC as 7-point underdogs on a neutral court down in New Orleans Saturday. 

The Buckeyes are 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat Wisconsin by 25 on the road as 7.5-point underdogs, and topped Michigan 71-62 as 2-point home favorites during this stretch.  The other three wins came by 35, 13 and 29 points against overmatched competition. 

The UNC Tar Heels are not playing well at all.  They trailed almost the entire way before going on a run late to squeak by Tennessee 78-73.  Then they suffered one of the most shocking losses of the season with a 75-79 home loss to Wofford as 25-point favorites on Wednesday, December 20th.  That’s not the kind of effort that would warrant them being 7-point favorites here. 

North Carolina is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60% and 80%.  Plays against neutral court teams as a favorite or PK (UNC) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, in December games are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS since 1997.  The Buckeyes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. ACC opponents.  Bet Ohio State Saturday. 

20* Lakers/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +11 

The Los Angeles Lakers are going to want revenge from two overtime home losses to the Golden State Warriors already this season.  They lost 123-127 as 13.5-point dogs, and then 114-116 as 5.5-point dogs on December 18th just five days ago.  I really like the revenge factor being fresh in this quick rematch. 

The Lakers are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have been on the road for five of these six games, pulling off upset wins over Philadelphia as 8.5-point dogs, Houston as 15-point dogs and Charlotte as 3.5-point dogs.  And all three of their losses came by 2, 4 and 9 points.  That 9-point loss came in a cover as 10.5-point dogs at Cleveland. 

The Warriors are vulnerable right now because of all their injuries.  Steph Curry, Zaza Pachulia and Shaun Livingston remain out, Andre Iguodala is questionable, and Draymond Green is expected to play tonight but is battling as shoulder injury.  I don’t expect a very focused effort from the Warriors tonight after just beating the Lakers on Monday. 

Plays on road teams (LA Lakers) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, a bad team winning 25% to 40% of their games are 54-25 (68.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Lakers are 6-0 ATS in their last six when playing on one days’ rest.  The Warriors are 10-24 ATS in their last 34 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Bet the Lakers Friday. 

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Iowa +6.5 

The Xavier Musketeers are clearly vulnerable right now due to all their injuries.  That has shown in their last two games.  They beat East Tennessee State 68-66 as 21.5-point favorites, needing to erase a 22-point second half deficit to do so.  Then they only beat Marshall 81-77 as 19-point home favorites last time out. 

That Marshall game was on Tuesday, so they have only had two days to get ready for Northern Iowa.  Now four key players are questionable to play tonight for the Musketeers.  They are three of their top four scorers in J.P. Macura (11.9 ppg, 4.4 rpg), Tyrique Jones (9.8 ppg, 6.4 rpg) and Kaiser Gates (9.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg), plus key bench player Naji Marshall (8.1 ppg). 

Northern Iowa is consistently one of the most underrated teams in the Missouri Valley year in and year out.  They are 8-3 SU this season with their only losses coming to North Carolina, Villanova and Iowa State.  They have beaten UNLV, NC State and SMU, so they have gone through the gauntlet.  Now they are going to want revenge from two losses to Xavier last season. 

They didn’t get to play Xavier at home last year, but they do this season, and they have a great home-court advantage.  The Panthers are 6-0 at home this season winning by 23.5 points per game on average. The Musketeers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss.  Take Northern Iowa Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Pistons UNDER 203.5 

The New York Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight after a 102-93 home win over the Boston Celtics last night.  Kristaps Porzingis made his return from injury, but went 0-for-11 and didn’t attempt a shot in the second half.  He clearly isn’t 100% and it wouldn’t surprise me if they continue to rest him tonight. 

The Pistons have really been struggling offensively of late.  They have been held to 100 or fewer points in seven of their last 11 games overall.  They have shot 43.6% or less in eight of those 11 games as well.  They miss Avery Bradley and Jon Leuer, who are both out with injury right now. 

Both of these teams prefer to play at slower tempos.  The Pistons rank 21st in pace while the Knicks are 19th.  The UNDER is 4-2 in the last six meetings as these teams have combined for 204 or fewer points in four of those six.  I think we see a very low-scoring game tonight given the tough situation for the Knicks, and the offensive struggles of the Pistons. 

The UNDER is 25-12-1 in Knicks last 38 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Pistons last 11 games overall.  The UNDER is 20-5-1 in Pistons last 26 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Pistons last five Friday games.  The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Detroit.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday. 

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia -3 

The Georgia Bulldogs have been one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season.  They are 8-2 on the year, including 5-0 at home.  Mark Fox has one of his best teams yet and a clear NCAA Tournament team this year. 

The Temple Owls have too many concerning performances of late to trust them only catching 3 points on the road here.  They have losses to both La Salle and George Washington, they only beat St. Joe’s by 3 as 10.5-point favorites, lost to Villanova by 20 as 9.5-point dogs, and barely beat Drexel by 3 last time out as 16-point home favorites.  Those efforts show they can’t compete with Georgia. 

Georgia is 10-2 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread over the last two seasons.  Temple is 1-9 ATS versus teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  The Owls are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Roll with Georgia Friday. 

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland State +5.5 

The Portland State Vikings have been one of the most underrated teams in college basketball.  They have gone 9-3 SU and a perfect 9-0 ATS in their nine lined games.  Now they’re catching 5.5 points tonight against a rebuilding California Bears team in a game that they’ll likely win outright. 

The Vikings’ three losses have all come against very good teams.  They lost 81-99 as 24.5-point dogs to Duke, 69-71 as 12-point dogs to Butler, and 84-95 as 13-point road dogs at Oregon.  They have beaten Stanford and everyone else they have faced this year. 

California is just 6-6 with losses to the likes of UC-Riverside (66-74) as 13.5-point favorites at home, Chaminade (72-96) without a line on the road and Central Arkansas (69-96) without a line at home.  Those three results right there should show just how poor of shape the Bears are really in this season. 

California is 0-8 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 0-9 ATS in home games versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two years.  The Vikings are 9-0 ATS in all games this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Vikings.  Roll with Portland State Thursday. 

15* Celtics/Knicks TNT Thursday No-Brainer on New York +3 

The Boston Celtics are in an extremely difficult spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They haven’t had consecutive days off in the entire month of December.   

This team is running on fumes right now, and it showed their their 89-90 upset home loss to the Miami Heat. They will also be playing their 8th game in 12 days tonight.  I don’t expect much of an effort at all from them tonight. 

Meanwhile, the Knicks have had two days off since last playing on Monday.  And they get a big boosts with he return of Kristaps Porzingis to the lineup tonight after he missed the past two games with a sore knee. 

The Knicks have been a great beat at home this season, going 14-5 SU & 14-5 ATS inside Madison Square Garden.  The Celtics are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 0 days’ rest.  New York is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  Take the Knicks Thursday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +10.5 

The Chicago Bulls are now 7-0 since Nikola Mirotic made his season debut seven games ago.  He is averaging 19.6 points per game and the bench is playing great.  The Bulls are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as 10.5-point underdogs here. 

Chicago will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here after a 112-94 home win over Orlando last night.  But that’s not a concern because of their deep bench, and the fact that no player logged more than 29 minutes Wednesday, so the team should be relatively fresh as a whole. 

The Cars are way overvalued due to winning 18 of their last 20 games.  They have gone just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They aren’t blowing teams out.  And now they have their NBA Finals rematch with Golden State on deck on Christmas Day and can’t help but be looking ahead to that huge showdown. 

The Bulls have had the Cavaliers’ number, going 6-3 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Chicago is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 Thursday games.  The Bulls are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Cavaliers are 5-21-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.  Bet the Bulls Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -2 

The Portland Trail Blazers are on a roll right now and they’re still being undervalued tonight as only 2-point favorites over the San Antonio Spurs.  The Blazers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. 

While they are just 3-3 SU during this stretch, they have played five of their last six on the road.  And their three losses came to Houston (by 7), Golden State (by 7) and Minnesota (by 1), three of the best teams in the NBA.  This recent stretch of great play has been possible by the fact that the Blazers have gotten 100% healthy. 

The Spurs are usually one of the best teams in the NBA, but they won’t be tonight with all the players they’ll be missing due to injury.  San Antonio will be without both Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker, plus Danny Green and Kyle Anderson are both banged up as well.  They won’t have enough firepower to hang with the Blazers tonight. 

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Portland) - after a close loss by 3 points or less against opponent that scored 105 or more points in their previous game are 51-21 (70.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Portland is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 home meetings with San Antonio.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Chicago Bulls -4.5 

The Chicago Bulls are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS since Nikola Mirotic made his season debut.  They are playing team basketball and I’m going to continue riding them tonight.  Mirotic is averaging 23.2 points per game over his past five games. 

"You can see it in the locker room," Chicago guard Kris Dunn said. "Everybody has a smile, everyone is happy. That's what it's all about. I think the biggest thing, the reason why we are winning is because we are having fun with it. When you are having fun, when you are winning, things (are) a lot smoother.”

Now the Bulls get to play the banged-up Orlando Magic, who have lost five straight coming in to fall to 11-20 on the season.  They are missing two starters in Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon, and their 6th man Terrence Ross remains out as well.  They simply do not have the talent elsewhere to make up for the losses of these three key players.

Chicago has owned Orlando, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with the four wins coming by 22, 47, 32 and 8 points.  That 22-point win came earlier this season on November 3rd in Orlando.  The Magic are 0-7 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent this season.  Orlando is 16-40-2 ATS in its last 58 games following an ATS win.  Chicago is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Take the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets -5 

The Sacramento Kings are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Now they are getting too much respect from the books for their upset win over Philadelphia last night, a tired Philly team that was playing the 2nd of a back-to-back itself. 

The Nets are rested and ready to go as they have had two days off since losing to Indiana on Sunday.  They will also be motivated for a victory after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, which has them undervalued as well.  The Nets had gone 10-2 ATS in their previous 12 games and I feel like they are back to being undervalued here. 

The Kings are 14-25 ATS off a win over the last two seasons.  Sacramento is 16-34-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The Kings are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games on 0 days’ rest.  The Nets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Brooklyn is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a loss.  The Nets are 43-19-2 ATS in their last 64 vs. NBA Pacific Division foes.  The Kings are 1-7 ATS in their last eight trips to Brooklyn.  Roll with the Nets Wednesday. 

15* Houston/Providence ESPNU No-Brainer on Houston -4.5 

The Houston Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Head coach Kelvin Sampson has this team playing at a very high level.  They are off to a 9-2 start this season with their two losses coming by 3 and 4 points.  They even beat Arkansas 91-65 as 4-point home dogs for their signature win. 

Providence is struggling against the spread right now due to all their injuries.  They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They only beat Rider 88-84 as 14-point favorites, lost at Rhode Island 68-75 as 4-point dogs, only beat Brown 77-72 as 18.5-point home favorites, lost at UMass 63-72 as 4.5-point favorites.  And there wasn’t even a line in their last game against Stony Brook, and they only won that game 62-60 at home. 

The Friars' best player Emmitt Holt is out for the season.  Both Alpha Diallo (11.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg) and Maliek White (6.1 ppg) are doubtful to play tonight.  And their floor general in point guard Kyron Cartwright (9.4 ppg, 6.0 apg) is questionable after suffering an ankle injury in his previous game.  They are simply missing too many players right now, which is the reason for their recent struggles. 

Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or PK (Houston) - an explosive offensive team scoring 76 or more points per game against a good offensive team (74-76 ppg), after scoring 75 points or more in three straight games are 77-38 (67%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last six after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  The Friars are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Houston Wednesday. 

15* Cavs/Bucks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee +2.5 

The Milwaukee Bucks are primed for a big effort tonight.  They have lost three straight coming in and will be highly motivated for a victory.  They have also had two days off since a 111-115 loss at Houston as 10.5-point dogs on Saturday, which was as tough as anyone has played the Rockets during their 14-game winning streak. 

The Cleveland Cavaliers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here tonight.  They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after going 18-1 in their last 19 games overall.  But they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall as they have consistently been overvalued. 

Milwaukee will also be out for revenge after losing each of their first two meetings this season to the Cavaliers.  They want to prove they can beat the defending Eastern Conference champs, who are much more vulnerable this season than they have been in year’s past due to trading Kyrie Irving and with all their current injuries. 

Cleveland is a woeful 5-19 ATS as a favorite this season.  Milwaukee is 17-4 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 6.9 points per game on average in this spot.  Take the Bucks Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Belmont +6.5 

The Belmont Bruins cannot be this big of road underdogs to Western Kentucky given how well they have played on the road this season.  And this is a WKU team that returned zero starters from last year and simply isn’t very good. 

Belmont has road losses to Washington (82-86), Providence (65-66) and TCU (76-87) that show they are capable of beating Western Kentucky.  They also have a road win at Middle Tennessee (69-63) as 7-point underdogs and a home win over Vanderbilt (69-60) as 4-point underdogs. 

Western Kentucky is actually a tired team right now as this will be their 4th game in 9 days, which is a lot when you consider last week was Finals Week.  And the Hilltoppers won’t have many fans in attendance at home here with everyone on Spring Break, so the home-court advantage is neutralized. 

Belmont is 7-0 ATS in road games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the past two seasons.  The Bruins are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games overall.  The Bruins are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Hilltoppers are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Ohio Valley opponents.  Take Belmont Tuesday. 

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Drake/South Dakota State OVER 153.5 

We have the perfect storm for an OVER here with two teams that love to push the tempo in Drake and South Dakota State.  Niko Medved has brought his up-tempo system to Drake in his first year hear, and T.J. Otzelberger learned under Fred Hoiberg at Iowa State and has brought that system to South Dakota State. 

The Jack Rabbits are averaging 83.9 points per game on the season and shooting an impressive 41.4% from 3-point range on 26 attempts per game.  They give up 76.1 points per game because of the frenetic pace they play at. 

The Bulldogs have really improved offensively this season, averaging 79.9 points per game and shooting 41.6% from 3-point range on 25 attempts per game.  They have been pretty poor defensively, though, allowing 78.6 points per game on 48.1% shooting. 

Drake is 7-0 OVER after allowing 85 points or more over the last two seasons.  South Dakota State is 13-3 OVER vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 25-10-1 in Bulldogs last 36 games following a loss.  The OVER is 8-2 in Jack Rabbits last 10 games following an ATS loss.  The OVER is 40-19-1 in Jack Rabbits last 60 non-conference games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. 

15* Marshall/Xavier CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Marshall +21 

The Marshall Thundering Herd are 8-3 this season and Dan D’Antoni, the broker of Mike D’Antoni of the Houston Rockets, has this offense hitting on all cylinders.  The Thundering Herd have won four straight coming in and are scoring 90.2 points per game on the season. 

Marshall is a very difficult team to prepare for, and that will be a problem for a Xavier team that needed to erase a 22-point deficit in the second half to beat lowly East Tennessee State 68-66 on Saturday as 21.5-point favorites.  They used a lot of energy to make that comeback, and they have only two days to get ready for Marshall.  They also won’t have many fans in attendance with this being Christmas Break. 

Xavier coach Chris Mack was impressed by what he saw on film from the Thundering Herd.  "I love the way they play offense," he said. "Elmore is a special player. He's as adept shooting threes as he is getting to the foul line. He's surrounded by some really skilled personnel."

"We have a lot of respect for Marshall," Mack said. "They do a great job of spacing the floor and playing with space. They are difficult to prepare for. It's a big challenge.”

Marshall is 9-2 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread over the past two seasons.  The Thundering Herd are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big East opponents.  I think the Musketeers find themselves in another battle they don’t want to be in tonight.  Roll with Marshall Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +2.5 

Since Nikola Mirotic returned to the Bulls’ lineup on December 8th, they have gone a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS.  They have beaten Charlotte and Milwaukee on the road, and New York, Boston and Utah at home.   

They were underdogs in all five games, and they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers here as home dogs tonight.  Mirotic has led the way in averaging 25 points in his past three games and is the team’s leading scorer on the season. 

The 76ers are in a hangover spot here off a triple-overtime loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Joel Embiid suffered a back injury in that game, but played all three overtimes.  He will now sit out this game to rest, as will Trevor Booker.  The 76ers aren’t nearly the same team without Embiid.  They have lost five of their last six games overall coming in. 

Philadelphia is 24-39 ATS off a home loss over the last three seasons.  Chicago is 25-9 ATS vs. good rebounding teams out-rebounding their opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three years.  The 76ers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  Chicago is 12-2 ATS In its last 14 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Roll with the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2 

The Boston Celtics have been one of the best teams in the NBA this season at 25-7.  Getting them as only 2-point road favorites over the Indiana Pacers is a nice bargain tonight, especially considering the tough spot the Pacers are in. 

Indiana will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 109-97 win in Brooklyn on Sunday.  The Pacers will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th game in 6 days.  The Celtics had yesterday off and will be re-energized here after beating the Grizzlies 102-93 on the road Saturday. 

The Celtics have owned the Pacers, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  All four wins came by 6 points or more, and most of those came against better Pacers teams that had Paul George.  This is a better Celtics team this season as Kyrie Irving and this young talent have really played at a high level all year. 

Boston is 11-0 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better this season.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in road games when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.  Boston is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 road games overall.  Indiana is 14-30-1 ATS in its last 45 games when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Take the Celtics Monday. 

15* Cavs/Wizards NBA Sunday No-Brainer on Washington PK 

The Washington Wizards just recently got back John Wall from injury.  It’s no surprise they have won their two games since his return.  And now they’re going to want to make a statement against the Cleveland Cavaliers, letting them know they are coming for them this season. 

And now the Cavaliers are ripe for the picking.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, as well as their 6th game in 10 days.  The Cars were already short-handed without Isaiah Thomas, Derrick Rose and Iman Shumpert, and now both Tristan Thompson and Dwyane Wade are expected to rest.  The Cavs are short on numbers and won’t have much left in the tank tonight. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Cleveland) after two or more consecutive wins, when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 72-37 (66.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Take the Wizards Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Raptors UNDER 206 

The UNDER is almost always a good bet in the situation that the Kings and Raptors are in today.  These teams just played each other on December 10th just seven days ago.  They are extremely familiar with each other because of it, and familiarity favors defense. 

The Kings are one of the slowest teams in the NBA.  They rank 28th in pace at 96.8 possessions per game.  And now they are expected to be without lighting-quick point guard De’Aaron Fox, who is doubtful with a quad injury.  The only time they push the pace is when he’s in, but now they will be even slower than usual without him. 

Toronto just beat Sacramento 102-87 for 189 combined points last Sunday.  Now they’ve set the total at 206, which is 17 points higher.  It’s clear that there’s value with the UNDER.  Not to mention, the UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  The last four meetings have seen 189, 201, 187 and 198 combined points, which is an average of just 193.8 combined points per game.  That’s also 12 points less than this 206-point total. 

The UNDER is 5-0 in Kings last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 15-7 in Kings last 22 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Raptors last four Sunday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Spurs UNDER 198 

I love betting the UNDER in this spot.  The Mavs and Spurs just played each other on Tuesday with the Mavs winning 95-89 at home.  So these teams are very familiar with one another, and now they’ll be playing each other just five days later.  This situation always favors the defenses and the UNDER. 

This has been a low-scoring series between the Mavs and Spurs anyway.  They have combined for 191 or fewer points in six of their last eight meetings.  They have averaged just 193.4 combined points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 5 points less than tonight’s posted total of 198. 

The Spurs will be without their best player in Kawhi Leonard as he gets a night of rest in this back-to-back situation.  The Mavs will be without starting point guard Dennis Smith Jr., who is arguably their best player and scorer as well.  These injuries will help aid this UNDER. 

The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Mavs last 17 Saturday games.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Mavs last 10 vs. Western Conference.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Spurs last nine when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +3 

The Oklahoma City Thunder just played a triple-overtime game against the Philadelphia 76ers last night.  It’s safe to say they won’t have anything left in the tank today, especially since all five starters played basically the entire 15 minutes of overtime.  Russell Westbrook played 52 minutes, Steven Adams 51, Paul George 45, Carmelo Anthony 47 and Andre Roberson 34. 

The Knicks will be motivated for the Anthony reunion to prove that they are a better team without him.  They will also be rested after having yesterday off.  The Knicks are 13-5 SU & 13-5 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 6.5 points per game on average.  They have been one of the most profitable teams to bet at home this season. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Oklahoma City) - off a road win by 3 points or less, when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Thunder are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games, and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the Knicks Saturday. 

15* Oklahoma/Wichita State CBB No-Brainer on Wichita State -7.5 

The Wichita State Shockers are ranked No. 3 in the country thanks to their 8-1 start and their five returning starters from last year.  They have played the gauntlet, facing the likes of Cal, Marquette, Notre Dame, Baylor and Oklahoma State with all five of those games either on a neutral or on the road. 

Now they get Oklahoma at home in one of the most hostile arenas in college basketball.  And I think this Oklahoma team is way overrated and doesn’t have a real good victory to its name yet.  USC and Oregon are both down, and they lost tot he best team they have faced in Arkansas 83-92.   

Now the Shockers will be the best team they have played yet, and it will actually be their first true road game of the season.  I don’t expect this young Sooners team led by freshman Trae Young to be able to handle this situation very well at all. 

Oklahoma is 0-8 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Sooners are 1-9 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in five straight games over the last three seasons.  The Shockers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Roll with Wichita State Saturday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +1 

The Denver Nuggets have actually been able to sustain success despite the losses of their two best players in Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap in recent weeks.  But they don’t have to play without both any longer as Jokic is expected to make his return from an ankle injury tonight. 

The Pelicans haven’t won back-to-back games since November 22-24.  They have gone just 4-6 since and are coming off a 115-108 home victory over Milwaukee on Wednesday.  Now they’ll be playing their 4th game in 6 days and their 9th game in 15 days.  This is a tired team right now. 

The Nuggets are going to want revenge from a 123-114 road loss at New Orleans on December 6th just over a week ago.  The Nuggets won their three previous meetings with the Pelicans, including blowout home wins by 32 and 16 points.  They should not be home underdogs here tonight. 

The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Denver is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 Friday games.  The Pelicans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 trips to Denver.  Bet the Nuggets Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Grizzlies UNDER 198 

Nothing has changed with the grit ’n grind Memphis Grizzlies this season.  They are still a team that cannot score the ball, but they lay it on the line defensively every night.  Of course, it hurts that they lost their best player in PG Mike Conley, and they are also playing without Wayne Selden and Brandan Wright, and possibly Tyreke Evans tonight. 

The UNDER is 10-4 in Grizzlies last 14 games overall.  They have failed to score more than 95 points in 11 of those 14 games.  But they have given up 100 or fewer in seven of those.  Now they face a tired Hawks team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight.  Don’t expect them to try and get up and down the floor with any kind of tempo tonight. 

The Grizzlies rank 30th in the NBA in pace at 95.7 possessions per game, and they’ll control the tempo playing at home here tonight.  Memphis ranks 27th in offensive efficiency while Atlanta is 21st.  So it will be a slow tempo between two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA, which is a perfect recipe for an UNDER. 

The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these teams.  They have combined for 197 or fewer points in six of those seven meetings.  They are averaging just 186.4 combined points per game in those seven meetings, which is nearly 12 points less than tonight’s posted total of 198.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday. 

15* Thunder/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia -1.5 

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the most overrated team in the NBA to this point.  They are just 13-14 SU & 8-18 ATS, including 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS on the road.  They have gone just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

The problem with the Thunder is that in trading for Carmelo Anthony and Paul George, they traded away all their depth.  Their bench is awful, and Anthony has proven to be a cancer in Oklahoma City just like he was in New York. 

The 76ers will be hungry for a victory after losing four of their last five coming in.  They have had two days off to get ready for the Thunder after last playing on Tuesday.  They are almost fully healthy now as the only player they will be missing tonight Is Markelle Fultz.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series. 

The 76ers are 20-4 ATS off two consecutive non-conference games over the past two seasons.  Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who average 9 or more steals per game over the last two seasons.  The Thunder are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The 76ers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games playing on two days’ rest.  Philadelphia is 42-16-1 ATS in its last 59 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Take the 76ers Friday. 

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +10.5 

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been an overvalued commodity this season due to the signing of Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague.  They are consistently laying prices that they cannot handle, and I think that’s the case again here tonight as double-digit favorites over the Kings. 

The Timberwolves are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are a mediocre 16-12 SU on the season as well.  They are only outscoring the opposition by 0.6 points per game on the season, including just 2.2 points per game at home.  They aren’t blowing out teams on the regular. 

The Kings have been a nice money-maker for backers over the past three weeks.  They have been flying under the radar, going 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have three upset victories during this stretch, including a road win at Golden State as 12.5-point dogs. 

The Kings are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Timberwolves, winning twice outright as underdogs.  Sacramento is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Kings are 4-0-2 ATS in their last six road games.  The Timberwolves are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Roll with the Kings Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -1 

The Brooklyn Nets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 11-15 SU & 17-9 ATS while being one of the most profitable teams to back.  Now they just have to win to cover at home tonight against the Knicks, and I think they get the job done. 

The Knicks have been a great team to back at home, but a terrible one on the road.  They are just 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS on the highway this season.  They are getting outscored by a whopping 11.8 points per game on the road too, scoring just 97.2 on average and giving up 109.0 per game. 

The Nets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Brooklyn is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  New York is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take the Nets Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland State +15 

The Portland State Vikings are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have opened 8-2 SU and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their eight lined games.  Now they are catching 15 points from a rebuilding Oregon team that has no business laying this kind of number. 

Portland State’s two losses this season came to Duke (81-99) as 24.5-point underdogs on a neutral and Butler (69-71) as 12-point dogs on a neutral.  The Vikings have pulled outright upsets over UC-Riverside, Utah State, Stanford, Loyola-Marymount and Santa Clara with four of those wins coming on the road.  This team just continues to lack the respect they deserve. 

Oregon is just 7-3 SU & 4-5 ATS on the season.  The Ducks returned just one starter from last year.  They have been upset by UConn and Boise State, and they also lost to Oklahoma by 10.  Their 74-68 win over Texas Southern as 20-point home favorites on Monday was also a concerning result.  Now they have had just one day to get ready for Portland State. 

The Vikings are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.  The Ducks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Oregon is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  The Vikings are 7-0 ATS as an underdog this season.  Roll with Portland State Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +11.5 

The Phoenix Suns have been playing without Devin Booker, but they have actually been competitive without him.  They have lost their last three games without him, but they were all by 10 points or less to Washington (by 10), San Antonio (by 3) and Sacramento (by 7). 

I think they get the cover with ease tonight against a Toronto Raptors team that is getting too much respect for its 6-1 run.  But those seven games have come against the lines of Atlanta, Charlotte, Indiana, Phoenix, Memphis, Sacramento and the LA Clippers.  They have feasted on an easy schedule, and they cannot be laying 11.5 points on the road here. 

The Suns simply have the Raptors’ number.  They have gone 6-3 SU and a perfect 9-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  They covered as 14.5-point road dogs in a 13-point loss on December 5th, and they will want revenge just a week later here catching 11.5 points at home. 

The Suns are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Phoenix is 7-2 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Suns are 20-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 70% over the last three seasons.  Take the Suns Wednesday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2.5 

The Miami Heat are rested right now, which has led to back-to-back blowout wins over Brooklyn (101-89) in Mexico City and Memphis (107-82) on the road.  The Heat will be playing just their 4th game in 10 days tonight. 

Now they host a Portland Trail Blazers team that has really been struggling.  The Blazers are 0-5 in their last five five games overall despite playing four of those five games at home.  They lost at Golden State on Monday, and it’s always tough to get back up after playing the defending champs.  I certainly don’t like the spot for the Blazers here. 

The Blazers have played their last two games without two key pieces in center Just Nurkic and small forward Maurice Harkless.  Both Nurkic and Harmless are questionable to return tonight.  The Heat have proven they can still play great basketball without Hassan Whiteside, who is expected to be out until the end of December with a bone bruise in his knee. 

The Blazers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a loss.  The Heat are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Miami is 22-11 ATS off two consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons.  Bet the Heat Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +4.5 

The Washington Wizards have played their last eight games without John Wall, who may return Wednesday against Memphis.  But he’s out again tonight, and they are just 4-4 without him.  They shouldn’t be favored on the road here against the Brooklyn Nets. 

The Nets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 10-15 SU & 16-9 ATS.  They have been competitive in most games.  They have one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and that depth is what is allowing them to hang with teams that they aren’t expected to. 

The Nets also are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA.  They are averaging 108.6 points per game overall, including 113.7 points per game at home.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings. 

The Nets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Brooklyn is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following a loss.  Washington is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Brooklyn is rested and is 48-26 ATS in its last 74 games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days.  The Nets are a perfect 8-0 ATS versus good offensive teams who score 106 or more points per game this season.  Take the Nets Tuesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks +11.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are grossly overrated right now due to winning 14 of their last 15 games overall.  They are being asked to lay big numbers that they just can’t cover consistently.  They are just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games despite this recent run of straight up wins. 

Now the Cavs are up against an Atlanta hawks team that has given them fits.  The Hawks are 1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS in their two meetings with the Cavs this season.  They won 117-115 as 11-point road dogs in Cleveland on November 5th, and only lost 114-121 as 7.5-point home dogs on November 30th.  The Hawks are 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Cleveland overall. 

Atlanta comes in flying way under the radar.  The Hawks have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only ATS loss came in a tough spot in a home-and-home situation with the Brooklyn Nets.  They had beaten Brooklyn on the road two nights earlier, then predictably fell flat in the rematch. 

The Cavs could be without Kevin Love tonight, who is questionable.  They are already without Isaiah Thomas, Derrick Rose and Iman Shumpert.  And John Collins could make his return from a shoulder injury tonight for the Hawks. 

Plays against any team (Cleveland) after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  The Cavs are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Cleveland is 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 home games.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Columbia +12 

Off their shocking 89-84 upset win as 15-point underdogs to Duke on Saturday, the Boston College Eagles are in a massive letdown spot tonight against Columbia.  They won’t show up at all, and don’t be surprised if they lose outright.  But I certainly love getting Columbia as 12-point dogs in this spot. 

This is the same Boston College team that lost by 11 to Texas Tech, by 22 to Providence and by 9 to Nebraska.  It’s also a BC team that only beat Colgate 83-79 in its previous home game before beating Duke.  Go figure. 

Columbia is much better than its 1-9 record would indicate.  This team has simply had brutal luck in close games, losing seven times by 10 points or less.  The two exceptions?  A 15-point road loss as 25.5-point dogs at Villanova and a 14-point road loss as 13.5-point dogs at Penn State.  That effort against Villanova alone shows that this team is more than capable of hanging with Boston College on the road tonight. 

Columbia is 54-31 ATS in its last 85 games as a dog of 10 points or more.  Columbia is 32-10 ATS in its last 42 games as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points.  Boston College is 9-24 ATS in its last 33 home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game.  The Eagles are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. teams who allow 45% or more shooting to opponents.  The Lions are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss.  The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Roll with Columbia Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are starting to play better.  They have won four of their last five games overall.  But they are actually 0-8 ATS in their last eight games, so they are not living up to expectations from oddsmakers.  I think that has them undervalued now as only 6.5-point favorites against the Hornets. 

Paul George has sat out the last two games, but he is expected to return for this contest against the Charlotte Hornets.  They blew a 16-point lead to the Nets in their first game without him.  Then they came back from 20 points down to beat the Grizzlies in overtime.  I think having him back in the lineup will be a huge boost tonight. 

Meanwhile, the Charlotte Hornets are really struggling.  They are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have lost back-to-back home games to the Bulls and Lakers.  They have a laundry list of injuries they are dealing with right now, too.  Nic Batum (elbow), Frank Kaminsky (ankle) and Jeremy Lamb (ankle) are all questionable, while Cody Zeller (knee) is out. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Oklahoma City) after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games against an opponent after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS since 1996.  Oklahoma City is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Hornets are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 trips to Oklahoma City.  Take the Thunder Monday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +8.5 

The Sacramento Kings just can’t get any respect from the books.  And until they do, we’ll continue to back them catching big points in the underdog role.  They should not be this big of a home underdog to the Toronto Raptors today. 

The Kings are playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 4-4 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Three of the four wins were upsets, including a win at New Orleans as 9.5-point dogs and a win at Golden State as 12.5-point dogs.  The are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games, pulling off outright upsets over the Thunder, 76ers, Blazers and Lakers in the process. 

The Raptors are getting too much love from the books due to their 5-game winning streak coming in.  But those five wins came against the Hawks, Hornets, Pacers, Suns and Grizzlies.  That’s an easy slate, and it showed considering they were 5-point favorites or more in all five games.  It won’t come so easy against the Kings tonight. 

The Kings are 16-3 SU & 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home meetings with the Raptors.  Sacramento is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in all meetings with Toronto over the past two seasons, winning both road meetings outright as underdogs as well.  The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* ASU/Kansas ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Arizona State +12.5 

The Arizona State Sun Devils just cannot get any respect from the books.  They have opened 8-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in their eight games this season, yet they are still catching 12.5 points against the Kansas Jayhawks here Sunday.  It’s too much. 

I realize the Jayhawks will be motivated following one of the biggest upset losses of the season.  They lost to Washington 65-74 as 22-point favorites last time out.  But I think that was just more of a sign of the Jayhawks being overrated than anything.  And they remain overrated here Sunday. 

The Sun Devils have proven themselves against some good competition.  They beat Kansas State 92-90 as 4-point dogs on a neutral, Xavier 102-86 as 6.5-point dogs on a neutral and St. John’s 82-70 as 5-point favorites on a neutral.  They are full capable of hanging with the Jayhawks today as well. 

Senior guards Tra Holder and Shannon Evans average 20.3 and 18.6 points, respectively, while freshman forward Romello White averages 15.6 points and leads Arizona State on the boards with 9.3 rebounds per game.  ASU small forward Mickey Mitchell, a transfer from Ohio State, is eligible and is expected to make his Sun Devils debut Sunday.  The Sun Devils will give the Jayhawks a run for their money this afternoon.  Take Arizona State Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -2 

I absolutely love this situation for the Atlanta Hawks Saturday.  They just lost to Orlando in overtime on the road on December 6th 106-110.  They have now had two days off to get ready for the Magic, and they’ll clearly want revenge getting them at home this time around. 

Meanwhile, the Magic had to play a game last night against Denver, losing 89-103 at home.  So this will be the second of a back-to-back and the 5th game in 7 days for the Magic.  That’s about as tough a situation as it gets. 

The Magic are running on fumes right now as they haven’t had two days in a row off since November 16-17.  They will be playing their 10th game in 16 days with three back-to-backs in there.  They are short-handed right now without arguably their best player in Evan Fournier, and key 6th man Terrance Ross.  Also star rookie Jonathan Isaac is doubtful with an ankle injury. 

Orlando is 12-27 ATS versus teams who give up 106 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The Magic are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Orlando is 0-6 ATS in its last six when its opponent allows 100 points or more int heir previous game.  Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss.  Bet the Hawks Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Bonaventure -9.5 

The St. Bonaventure Bonnies went 20-12 last season.  They returned four starters from that team, including one of the best backcourts in the country in Matt Mobley (18.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg last year) and Jaylen Adams (20.6 ppg, 6.5 apg). 

Yale was expected to compete for an Ivy League title this season.  But those dreams have been crushed since the Bulldogs lost two of their best players to season-ending injury.  Makai Mason (16.0 ppg, in 2015-16) missed all of last season with a foot injury, and that injury didn’t heal so he will miss this season too.  Jordan Bruner (8.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 55 blocks last year) has also been lost for the season with a knee injury. 

The Bonnies have been mighty impressive of late, going 6-1 in their last seven games.  They beat Maryland on a neutral court, won three true road games all by 8 points or more against Siena, Buffalo and Canisius, and lost to TCU by 10 as 8.5-point dogs on a neutral.  TCU is still unbeaten as of this writing. 

Yale has been blown out on a the regular when it has taken a step up in class during its 6-5 start this season.  The Bulldogs lost by 16 at Creighton, by 28 at Wisconsin, by 8 at Albany and by 26 at TCU.  They also lost at home to Vermont by 6.  This team isn’t capable of hanging with a team the caliber of St. Bonaventure, which is an NCAA Tournament team in my eyes. 

Yale is 3-11 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS versus very good teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points pre game over the last three years.  The Bonnies are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. Ivy League opponents.  Roll with St. Bonaventure Saturday.

20* Oklahoma/USC ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on USC +2.5 

Wrong team favored here.  The USC Trojans are absolutely loaded this season with all five starters back from a team that went 26-10 last year.  They have their top eight scorers back and Bennie Boatwright, Chimezie Metu and Elijah Stewart all withdrew their names from the NBA draft to stay in school. 

I think the fact that USC has already lost two games has them undervalued right now at just 4-2 on the season.  But those losses came to two really good teams in Texas A&M and SMU.  Oklahoma isn’t as good as either of those two teams. 

I think the Sooners are overvalued due to their 6-1 start.  But they haven’t beat anyone as good as USC, and this is a team that went just 10-20 last season.  They do have freshman sensation Trae Young, who is averaging 28.7 points per game this season.  But he is simply asked to do too much, and I don’t trust a guy that consistently shoots 35-foot 3-pointers as part of the offense. 

Oklahoma is 0-7 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Sooners are 0-6 ATS when playing on Friday over the last three years.  The Sooners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  The Trojans are 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 non-conference games.  The Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Big 12 opponents.  Roll with USC Friday. 

15* Celtics/Spurs ESPN Friday No-Brainer on San Antonio -2 

The San Antonio Spurs are showing tremendous value as only 2-point home favorites over the Boston Celtics tonight.  At 17-8 on the season, the Spurs are hardly missing Kawhi Leonard.  They are playing team ball with 30 assists in their last game and a ridiculous eight of their 11 players scored at least 10 points in a 117-105 win over Miami. 

I think the Celtics are grossly overrated right now due to their 22-4 start to the season.  You certainly are paying a tax to back them now.  That’s why they have only covered two of their last five against the spread coming into this game.  Now they are getting too much respect from the books again at basically a pick ‘em on the road here against one of the best teams in the NBA. 

The Spurs have owned the Celtics, going 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Spurs have won five straight home meetings with the Celtics dating back to 2011. 

San Antonio is 25-9 ATS in December games over the last three seasons.  Boston is 8-19 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins over the last three years.  The Spurs are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 Friday games.  Take the Spurs Friday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Sacramento Kings +9

The Sacramento Kings are going to want revenge from a 106-114 home loss to the Pelicans the first time these teams played.  DeMarcus Cousins had a monster game against his former team, but don’t expect that to happen again.  He won’t be nearly as motivated the second time around. 

And Cousins is going to be asked to do a lot with the Pelicans’ best player in Anthony Davis sidelined for this one with a groin injury.  Solomon Hill and Alexis Ajinca are also out with injuries.  The Pelicans can’t be laying this kind of number with their current injury situation. 

The Kings have been grossly underrated here of late as they are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-4 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They beat the Warriors on the road and the Lakers and Bulls at home.  Three of their four losses during this stretch came by 6 points or less, including their 95-101 loss in Cleveland as 12.5-point dogs last time out.  It took some late Lebron James heroics to put them away. 

The Kings are well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.  Meanwhile, the Pelicans will be playing their 5th game in 8 days.  The Pelicans are just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with three double-digit losses during this stretch.  They are clearly missing Davis. 

New Orleans is 1-10 ATS in home games versus teams who are outscored by their opponents by 6-plus points per game on the season over the last three seasons.  The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Kings Friday. 

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Nets OVER 214.5 

This game is played in Mexico City tonight to showcase the NBA.  The players will want to put on a show, and I look for their to be little defense played in this game.  It will be played at a fast tempo as well for entertainment value. 

The Nets already prefer to play at a face pace.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in pace at 104.9 possessions per game, only behind the Lakers and Suns.  They also don’t play a lick of defense.  The Thunder will take advantage and will hang a big number on them. 

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between these teams.  They have combined for 226, 229 and 222 points in those three meetings.  That’s an average of 225.7 combined points per game, which is over 11 points more than this 214.5-point total 

Brooklyn is 12-3 OVER against Northwest Division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 28-14 OVER in non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday. 

15* Iowa/Iowa State ESPN 2 Thursday No-Brainer on Iowa +7.5 

The Iowa State Cyclones have no business being favored this heavily over arch rival Iowa tonight.  This is a Cyclones team that only brought back one starter and lost basically everyone from last season.  They are starting from the ground-up. 

It’s only a matter of time before the Hawkeyes get back to playing well after going 19-15 last year.  They were expected to be much better with four returning starters, but their 4-5 start leaves a lot to be desired.  Granted, the schedule has not been easy. 

Indeed, the Hawkeyes have already had to face VA Tech, Penn State and Indiana in their last three games, which resulted in three losses.  I think this rough start has them undervalued.   

Conversely, the Cyclones are overvalued after winning five straight.  But this is a team that lost to Wisconsin-Milwaukee by 18 at home as 13.5-point favorites prior to this streak against mostly weak competition. 

Iowa State is 0-7 ATS in a home game where the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Iowa State is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games.  The Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Iowa Thursday. 

15* Warriors/Hornets ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Charlotte +6 

The Golden State Warriors are in a world of hurt right now with their injuries.  It was already announced that Stephen Curry was going to miss two weeks with a bad ankle injury suffered in their last game.  And this morning it was announced that Draymond Green will also sit with a shoulder injury. 

Curry is the most important player on this team even though Kevin Durant won the MVP in the finals last year.  He makes this team tick.  And Green is perhaps the most underrated player in the NBA.  No other team has a player like him.  He sets the best screens and is the key to their pick and roll action with his ability to pass the ball and find open teammates.  And he’s one of the best defenders in the NBA. 

The Hornets just recently got their star PG Kemba Walker back in the lineups nd promptly crushed Orlando 104-94 last time out.  Now they will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days and will be fresh and ready to go.  Meanwhile, the Warriors will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 8th game in 12 days.  They are running on fumes right now, which makes the fact that they are without Green and Curry even worse. 

Charlotte is 19-7 ATS in home games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days over the last three seasons.  Golden State is 9-19 ATS in road games when playing a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.  The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win, and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Take the Hornets Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -2 

The Vanderbilt Commodores will be hungry for a win tonight.  They have opened 3-5 against a brutal schedule that has featured losses to the likes of USC, Virginia, Seton Hall, Kansas State and Belmont.  They also haven’t covered a single spread this season, which has them undervalued. 

But it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense they would be struggling like this because they brought back three starters and three double-digit scorers in Mathew Fisher-Davis, Jeff Roberson and Riley LaChance.  This is a team that made the NCAA Tournament in Bryce Drew’s first season last year, a feat that had never been accomplished previously in Vanderbilt history. 

I think the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders get a lot of respect because they made the NCAA Tournament the past two years and made some noise.  But they loss two of their core players from those two teams in JaCorey Williams (17.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg last year) and Reggie Upshaw (14.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg).  They aren’t nearly as strong as the last two versions. 

Vanderbilt is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games off an upset loss as a home favorite.  The home team has won three straight and five of the last six meetings between these teams.  Roll with Vanderbilt Wednesday. 

20* CBB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Drake +10 

After going just 7-24 last season, it’s clear to me that the Drake Bulldogs are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They got a great hire in Niko Medved, who won the 2017 Southern Conference Coach of the Year award while leading Furman to 23 wins last season.

Medved inherited an experienced Drake roster that returned eight of the nine players who averaged at least 14 minutes per game last season.  Senior Reed Timmer (21.7 ppg, 54.1% 3-pointers) is once again leading the team in scoring.  Fellow seniors Graham Woodward (13.8 ppg), De’Antae McMurray (12.8 ppg) and Ore Arogundade (7.7 ppg) are all having solid seasons as well for this veteran bunch.

Drake is off to a 4-3 start this season despite playing a rough schedule.  They have wins over Wake Forest as 9.5-point dogs and Drexel, and their three losses went down to the wire with an 81-86 loss to Colorado, a 73-75 road loss at Nebraska-Omaha and an 89-96 road loss at Wyoming in overtime as 10.5-point dogs.  They are more than capable of staying within 10 points of South Dakota here Wednesday.

I think South Dakota is in a massive letdown spot here.  They just played a dream game at Duke last time out and showed well, losing 80-96 as 23-point underdogs.  Now they will have a hard time getting back up emotionally to face Drake.  I think they’ll be flat most the game and will be lucky to squeak out a win, let alone win by double-digits.

Drake is 36-17 ATS in its last 53 games off a road cover where it lost straight up as an underdog.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  Drake is 6-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4 or more boards per game over the last two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Drake Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Dallas Mavericks +9.5 

The tax you have to pay to back the Boston Celtics right now is very steep.  That’s because they have opened 21-4 SU & 19-5-1 ATS through their first 25 games of the season.  You are going to be getting no discounts on them with the betting public catching on already. 

Conversely, you can get a great price on the Dallas Mavericks due to their 7-17 SU & 10-14 ATS start.  But they are playing their best basketball of the season right now and are a much better team than that record would indicate. 

Indeed, the Mavericks are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have beaten Milwaukee by 32, Oklahoma City by 16, the Clippers by 26 and the Nuggets by 17 during this streak.  They are not only beating teams, they are crushing them.  And their three losses have all come by 8 points or fewer in their last eight games. 

One of those was a 102-110 home loss in overtime to this same Celtics team on November 20th, meaning the Mavericks will be motivated for revenge just two weeks later.  And the Celtics have a huge road game at San Antonio on deck and could be looking ahead to that contest. 

Dallas is 26-13 ATS when revenging a same season loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  Boston is 3-12 ATS in home games after playing two consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 2-11 ATS in home games when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40% over the last two seasons. 

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off three or more consecutive home wins are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Mavericks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Boston.  The road team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Kent State +23 

The Xavier Musketeers are in a massive letdown spot tonight against Kent State.  They are coming off a huge 89-76 home win over their biggest rivals in the Cincinnati Bearcats.  That game is a war every year, and they certainly won’t be nearly as excited to play Kent State tonight. 

I also think the Musketeers are way overvalued right now due to going 7-1 ATS through their first eight games of the season.  The betting public has caught on to this ranked team, and you won’t be getting many bargains with them in the near future. 

The Kent State Golden Flashes are expected to compete for a MAC title this season.  They went 22-14 last year and returned three starters from that team, including Jaylin Walker (15.8 ppg).  They also return four key reserves and have a ton of experience coming back.  They are off to a 5-3 start this season. 

Xavier is 0-6 ATS off two straight games outrebounding opponent by 10 or more over the last two seasons.  Kent State is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Musketeers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. MAC foes.  Take Kent State Wednesday. 

20* Wizards/Blazers NBATV Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -5.5 

It’s safe to say the Portland Trail Blazers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight following back-to-back upset home losses to the Bucks and Pelicans.  I look for them to take out their frustration on the short-handed, fatigued Washington Wizards tonight. 

The Wizards will be playing the second of a back-to-back after an ugly 69-114 loss in Utah last night.  They remain without John Wall, and have gone just 3-6 in their last nine games overall.  Now they’re up against a fresh, pissed off Blazers team that has had two days off coming into this one. 

The home team is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Wizards are 2-11 ATS versus teams who average 20 or fewer assists per game over the last two seasons.  The Blazers have been talking about their lack of assists and why the offense has struggled recently, so look for them to play more team-oriented bacsketball tonight. 

"That's a reflection of how our offense is struggling,” Damian Lillard said. "We're not shooting the ball as well, we're not scoring as well, and so the assists are down.”  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on TCU -3.5 

It hasn’t taken Jamie Dixon long to turn around TCU’s program.  He made an immediate impact at his alma mater last year as the Frogs went 24-15, won more than 20 games for the first time since 2004-05, and won the NIT title.  Now they have all five starters back and are expected to contend for one of the top spots in the Big 12 this season. 

The Horned Frogs are off to a promising 8-0 start.  Six of their eight wins have come by double-digits.  Now they’ll be anxious to avenge a 74-59 loss at SMU as 3-point underdogs last season.  Now they are only 3.5-point home favorites in the rematch. 

TCU should be a bigger favorite considering all that SMU lost in the offseason.  The Mustangs lost three double-digit scorers in Semi Ojeleye (19.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg), Sterling Brown (13.4 ppg, 6.5 rpg) and Ben Moore (11.4 ppg, 7.8 rpg). Ojeleye was a first-round pick of the Boston Celtics. 

SMU is 7-2 this season, but the losses are certainly concerning.  They’ve already lost to both Western Kentucky and Northern Iowa on a neutral court.  Now this is the best team they have faced yet in TCU.  The Horned Frogs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record.  The Horned Frogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home meetings with SMU.  Take TCU Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +9.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are way overvalued right now due to their 11-game winning streak.  But they are just 5-6 ATS during this streak as most of those wins have been close.  In fact, nine of those 11 wins have come by 11 points or less, including seven by 8 points or fewer. 

Conversely, the Bulls are undervalued right now due their 8-game losing streak, so it’s the perfect storm.  But six of those eight losses have come by 9 points or less.  And they have had some really hard luck of late, losing their last four games by 1, 1, 5 and 7 points.  This team is quietly improving under Fred Hoiberg. 

The Bulls have been a thorn in Cleveland’s side in recent years.  In fact, the Bulls are a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.  They only lost 112-119 in Cleveland as 15-point underdogs in their first meeting this season on October 24th.  The Bulls are actually 7-2 straight up in their last nine meetings with Cleveland!   

The Cavaliers are 3-14 ATS as a favorite this season.  Cleveland is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 when playing against a team with a winning % of 25% or worse.  Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Roll with the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets +2 

The Brooklyn Nets fit one of my favorite situations to play in the NBA.  This is a home-and-home situation between the Nets and Hawks.  They just played on Saturday with the Hawks pulling the 114-102 upset in Brooklyn.  Now, it’s revenge time for the Nets, who will clearly be the more motivated team in the rematch. 

There’s no question the Nets are simply the better team.  They are 8-14 on the season compared to 5-17 for Atlanta.  The telling stat is that Brooklyn is 14-8 ATS in 22 games this year, including 8-4 ATS in road games.  This team has been undervalued all season, and they should not be underdogs here after being 4.5-point home favorites against the Hawks on Saturday. 

The Nets are 41-22 ATS in their last 63 road games when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Brooklyn is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games when playing on one days’ rest.  The Hawks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Atlanta) - off an upset win as a road underdog, with a losing record are 78-45 (63.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Nets Monday. 

15* Michigan/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State -1.5 

The Ohio State Buckeyes are showing great value as only 1.5-point home favorites against the Michigan Wolverines in this Big Ten matchup Monday.  I think this is a Buckeyes team on the rise under former Butler head coach Chris Holtmann. 

The Buckeyes are off to a 6-3 start against a brutal schedule that has featured losses to Gonzaga, Butler and Clemson, and wins over Stanford and Wisconsin.  The 83-58 win as 7.5-point dogs at Wisconsin was mighty impressive on Saturday and shows just how undervalued this team is right now. 

Michigan has played a much softer schedule to this point and is 7-2.  The Wolverines lost a lot from last year’s team that won the Big Ten Tournament and made a run in the NCAA Tournament.  They only beat Central Michigan by 7 at home, lost to one of the worst teams in the SEC in LSU, and were blown out by 15 at UNC. 

Ohio State has won 14 of its last 17 home meetings with Michigan.  Michigan is 5-14 ATS off a home win over the last two seasons.  The Buckeyes are 12-2 ATS in their last 12 home games when playing their 2nd game in 3 days.  Ohio State is 9-1 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game over the last three seasons.  The home team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Ohio State Monday. 

15* Warriors/Heat NBA Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 219.

Two of the better defensive teams in the NBA square off tonight when the Golden State Warriors visit the Miami Heat Sunday.  The Warriors are 5th in defensive efficiency, while the Heat are 12th. 

With the Heat playing at home today, they will control the tempo.  And their best chance to win is to limit possessions.  The Heat prefer to play at a slow tempo as it is, ranking tied for 20th in pace at 98.9 possessions per game. 

The recent series history really shows there is value with the UNDER.  Indeed, the UNDER is 3-0 in all three meetings over the past two seasons.  They have combined for 177, 207 and 202 points in those three games for an average of 195.3 combined points per game.  That’s a whopping 24 points less than tonight’s posted total of 219.5, showing there is real value with the UNDER. 

The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last seven games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat last five games overall.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Heat last 10 after allowing 100 points or more int heir previous game.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -1 

Bryce Drew became the first head coach in Vanderbilt history to make the Commodores to the NCAA Tournament in his first season last year.  He returned three starters from that team and three double-digits scorers in Mathew Fisher-Davis, (13.9 ppg), Jeff Roberson (10.8 ppg, 7.0 rpg) and Riley LaChance (10.5 ppg, 48.6% 3-pointers). 

I think the Commodores are being way undervalued right now due to starting 3-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their first seven games.  But they have played a brutal schedule with their four losses coming to Belmont, USC, Virginia and Seton Hall.  They are clearly battle-tested and ready to take down Kansas State. 

Conversely, Kansas State is being overvalued due to its 6-1 start.  But the schedule couldn’t have been much easier as the six wins came against American, Missouri-KC, UC-Irvine, Northern Arizona, George Washington and Oral Roberts.  They lost to the best team they played in Arizona State.  And now the Wildcats will be playing their first true road game of the season, which is always difficult. 

Drew is 10-1 ATS as a home dog or PK in all games he has coached.  This line opened Kansas State -2 and has been bet to Vanderbilt -1 at this point, a full 3-point move.  I think this move is warranted and the wrong team opened the favorite.  The Commodores pick up a home win and cover here today.  Roll with Vanderbilt Sunday.

20* Pelicans/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -6 

The New Orleans Pelicans are in a tough spot here tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing 108-114 in Utah last night.  And now they will be without their best player in Anthony Davis, who left the Utah game with an ankle injury and is doubtful tonight. 

The Blazers will be focused after losing 91-103 at home to Milwaukee on Thursday.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days so they’ll be fresh and ready to go tonight.  They are 100% healthy now, which is a big reason they’ve gone 5-2 in their last seven games overall coming in. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Blazers have won 12 of their past 13 home meetings with the Pelicans.  The Pelicans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven visits to Portland. 

The Pelicans are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on no rest.  New Orleans is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 Saturday games.  The Pelicans are 2-16 ATS in their last 18 road games following two or more consecutive overs.  They are losing by 13.6 points per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Blazers Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Drake +10.5 

After going just 7-24 last season, it’s clear to me that the Drake Bulldogs are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They got a great hire in Niko Medved, who won the 2017 Southern Conference Coach of the Year award while leading Furman to 23 wins last season. 

Medved inherited an experienced Drake roster that returned eight of the nine players who averaged at least 14 minutes per game last season.  Senior Reed Timmer (21.7 ppg, 54.1% 3-pointers) is once again leading the team in scoring.  Fellow seniors Graham Woodward (13.8 ppg), De’Antae McMurray (12.8 ppg) and Ore Arogundade (7.7 ppg) are all having solid seasons as well for this veteran bunch. 

Drake is off to a 4-2 start this season despite playing a rough schedule.  They have wins over Wake Forest as 9.5-point dogs and Drexel, and their two losses went down to the wire with an 81-86 loss to Colorado and a 73-75 road loss at Nebraska-Omaha.  They are more than capable of staying within 10.5 points of Wyoming here Saturday. 

The Wyoming Cowboys are 5-2 this season.  They have lost their two step up games to Cincinnati (53-78) and at Denver (78-88).  Their 83-70 win over New Mexico Highlands in between those two losses leaves a lot to be desired.  I just see no way these Cowboys should be favored by double-digits against this improving Drake squad. 

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Drake) - off an upset loss as a favorite, in December games are 263-177 (59.8%) ATS since 1997.  The Bulldogs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a. Winning % above .600.  Bet Drake Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Nets OVER 218.5 

Two teams who love to push the tempo square off Saturday.  The Nets rank 3rd in the NBA in pace at 105.2 possessions per game, while the Hawks rank 11th at 100.3 possessions per game.  So this game is going to be played at a fast pace without question. 

And both teams certainly aren’t concerned about playing much defense.  The Nets rank 25th in defensive efficiency, giving up 108.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Hawks are 26th, giving up 108.4 points per 100 possessions. 

These teams already played to 220 combined points in their first and only meeting this season when the Nets won 116-104 at home on October 22nd.  And they got to 220 despite that fact that Atlanta shot just 34.0% from the field. 

Atlanta is 27-9 to the OVER in its last 36 road games off two or more consecutive home losses.  The OVER is 5-1 in Nets last six home games.  The OVER is 9-2 in Hawks last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia Tech -2 

Buzz Williams has his best team yet in his fourth season at Virginia Tech.  The Hokies returned four starters from last season, including three who averaged 9.2 points per game or more. 

The Hokies are off to a 6-1 start this season with all six since coming by 24 or more points, including impressive wins over Washington (103-79) and Iowa (79-55).  The Hokies simply have to be bigger favorites today against Ole Miss. 

The Ole Miss Rebels are clearly not as strong as the Hokies this season.  They already have losses to Utah and South Dakota State (at home), and they have narrow home wins over Eastern Kentucky 85-75 as 17.5-point favorites and Georgia State 77-72 as 11-point favorites.  They aren’t nearly in the same class as Virginia Tech. 

Ole Miss is 1-8 ATS in home games after scoring 80 points or more over the last two seasons.  Virginia Tech is 37-16-1 ATS in its last 54 games overall.  The Hokies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Rebels are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  Roll with Virginia Tech Saturday. 

15* T’Wolves/Thunder NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -5.5 

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three straight coming in and five of their last six overall, with coincidentally their lone win coming 108-91 over Golden State as 5-point dogs.  They can turn it on when they want to. 

I certainly think the Thunder will turn it on tonight considering their will be out for revenge from two losses to the Minnesota Timberwolves already this season.  They lost at the buzzer 113-115 at home to Minnesota on October 22nd and 116-119 at Minnesota on October 27th.  They haven’t forgotten and will be wanting to avenge those two heartbreakers. 

The Timberwolves have certainly been overvalued here of late.  They have gone 1-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  A lot of that probably has to do with fatigue as they haven’t had two straight days off since November 9-10, and they will be playing their 12th game in 21 days here tonight. 

Meanwhile, Oklahoma City will be playing just its 2nd game in 6 days here.  Plays on favorites revenging two consecutive losses as a favorite, a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 144-90 (61.5%) ATS since 1996.  Minnesota is 2-11 ATS off a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with the Thunder Friday. 

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -7.5 

The Toronto Raptors will be out for revenge against the Indiana Pacers from their 104-107 road loss at Indiana on November 24th one week ago.  Now they get the Pacers at home this time around and should have no problem winning and covering. 

Since that loss, the Raptors have absolutely obliterated their two opponents.  They won 112-78 in Atlanta and 126-113 at home against Charlotte.  And the Raptors will be rested and ready to go now as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days. 

The Pacers will be playing their 5th game in 8 days here, and they are coming off a 97-118 loss in Houston on Wednesday night.  The Pacers could be without one of their best players in forward Myles Turner, who is questionable with a knee injury. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Toronto has won its last two home meetings with Indiana by 11 and 25 points.  The Pacers are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 trips to Toronto.  Take the Raptors Friday. 

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -3 

Quietly, the Portland Trail Blazers have gotten 100% healthy and are playing their best basketball of the season as a result.  They have gone 7-2 in their last nine games overall, which is impressive when you consider they played six of those nine games on the road. 

Now they’ve had two days off since winning 103-91 in New York on Monday.  They’ll be rested and ready to go and happy to be back at home for the first time since November 18th.  The Blazers have a huge home-court advantage and should be bigger favorites here against the Milwaukee Bucks. 

This is a Bucks team that is not healthy right now and not playing well.  The Bucks have lost three of their last five with all three losses coming by double-digits to Dallas (79-111), Washington (88-99) and Utah (108-121).  Their only two wins during this stretch came against two of the worst teams in the NBA in Phoenix and Sacramento. 

The Blazers will want revenge from their 110-113 loss in Milwaukee on October 21st in their first meeting this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  The Blazers are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a win of more than 10 points.  The Bucks haven’t won back-to-back games against Portland since 2012-13.  Take the Blazers Thursday. 

15* Texas Tech/Seton Hall CBB Thursday No-Brainer on Seton Hall -1.5 

The Seton Hall Pirates are absolutely loaded this season.  They returned four starters from a team that went 21-12 last season.  They returned each of their top four scorers and four guys who scored in double-digits last year, including three players who scored at least 15.2 points per game. 

The Pirates are off to a 5-1 start this season with their only loss coming by a single point to Rhode Island in a game that the Rams simply won due to getting hot from the 3-point line.  They beat Indiana by 16 and Vanderbilt by 13 this season and are legitimately one of the best teams in the Big East this season, if not in the entire country. 

I think Texas Tech is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here due to its 6-0 start.  But the schedule has been extremely soft with home wins over South Alabama, Maine, Wofford and Savannah State, and neutral court wins against Boston College and Northwestern.  This is a big step up in class here for the Red Raiders and I don’t expect them to handle it well. 

Texas Tech is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off three straight wins by 15 points or more.  The Red Raiders are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after scoring 75 points or more in four straight games.  Texas Tech is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 neutral site games.  The Red Raiders are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine vs. Big East opponents.  Roll with Seton Hall Thursday. 

15* Miami/Minnesota ESPN 2 Wednesday No-Brainer on Minnesota -5 

Richard Pitino has a real contender here in Minnesota.  This is his best team yet with five returning starters from last year.  They have certainly looked the part of Big Ten contenders up to this point. 

The Gophers have opened 7-0 SU & 5-1 ATS.  Six of their seven wins have come by 12 points or more, with the lone exception being an 89-84 win over a very solid Alabama team as 4.5-point favorites.  They won at Providence 86-74 as 2.5-point dogs. 

The Miami Hurricanes are also 5-0 this season, but their schedule has been so soft that they have only had one lined game.  Their five wins have come against Gardner Webb, Navy, Florida A&M, LaSalle and North Florida.  This will be their first true road game of the season. 

Miami is 0-6 ATS off a win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons.  Minnesota is 18-8 ATS as a favorite over the last two years.  The Gophers are 9-1 ATS vs. good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 7-plus per game over the last three seasons.  The Hurricanes are 1-8 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.  Roll with Minnesota Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -5.5 

The Dallas Mavericks are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  Their only two losses came to Boston (in OT) and San Antonio (by 7 on the road), two of the best teams in the league. 

Their three wins were mighty impressive, too.  They beat Milwaukee 111-79 as 6-point home underdogs.  The upset Memphis 95-94 as 6-point road dogs.  And they crushed Oklahoma City 97-81 as 6-point home dogs.  This is a team we clearly want to be betting on right now. 

Conversely, the Brooklyn Nets are a team we want to be fading due to their injury situation.  The Nets are playing without four of their best players in Jeremy Lin, D’Angelo Russell, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Allen Crabbe right now.  Not to mention, DeMarre Carroll is dealing with a respiratory illness.  I see no way they are even competitive tonight. 

The Nets will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, and they are just 14-28 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last three seasons.  Dallas is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. 

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against an opponent that went over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 58-27 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Mavericks Wednesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be highly motivated for a victory here tonight.  After upsetting the Warriors 108-91 at home, they clearly had a letdown in losing back-to-back games to the Pistons and Mavericks.  Now they’ve had three days off since losing to Dallas and will be rested and ready to go tonight. 

"I think that the last two games, coming after the Warriors game, we just really haven't gotten going offensively," Thunder coach Billy Donovan said. "In periods of time, we just really haven't gotten going. At some point, and hopefully soon, we can get it going offensively.”

The Thunder should be able to get right against an Orlando Magic team that is 0-9 SU & 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Magic have rarely been competitive during this skid, losing six times by double-digits.  I think you can chalk up another double-digit loss here tonight.

The Thunder are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Oklahoma City is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Orlando is 9-22-1 ATS in its last 32 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* Nuggets/Jazz NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -1.5

The Denver Nuggets aren't nearly the team they were before with Paul Millsap.  They have missed him quite a bit since he suffered a torn ligament in his left wrist.  They also have two key players in Wilson Chandler and Mason Plumlee questionable for tonight's game against the Utah Jazz.

The Jazz are better team with Rudy Gobert, so his loss is big.  However, they have surprised me quite a bit with how well they have played without him.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with three double-digits victories.  They beat Orlando 125-85 on the road, and Chicago (110-80) and Milwaukee (121-108) at home.

Utah simply owns Denver in Salt Lake City.  The Jazz are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five home meetings with the Nuggets.  The Jazz have won 37 of their past 45 home meetings with the Nuggets overall.  The home team has won five straight and seven of the last eight meetings in this series.

The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit win.  The favorite is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Nuggets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight trips to Salt Lake City.  Take the Jazz Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls +1

The Chicago Bulls are clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA at 3-15 on the season.  However, they get a rare opportunity for a win here against another awful team in the Phoenix Suns, who are 7-14 on the season.  I look for the Bulls to take advantage and win this game at home here tonight.

The Bulls will be out for revenge from a 105-113 loss at Phoenix on November 19th just over a week ago.  The home team has won three straight meetings in this series.  The Bulls have played a road-heavy schedule thus far with 11 road games compared to only seven at home.

The Suns have played a home-heavy schedule with 13 home games compared to just eight road games.  Phoenix plays zero defense as it is, especially on the road.  They are giving up 117.2 points per game on the road this season.  The Bulls are giving up just 99.3 points per game at home.

The Suns are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Phoenix is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Suns are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games when playing on one days' rest.  The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Utah State +7.5

The Valparaiso Crusaders are way overvalued right now due to their 7-0 start against an extremely soft schedule.  This is a team that returned only one starter from last year and lost their two best players in Alec Peters (23.0 ppg, 10.1 rpg) and Shane Hammink (15.1 ppg).

Utah State will be one of the most improved teams in the Mountain West this season.  The Aggies brought back four starters from last year in Koby McEwen (14.9 ppg), Sam Merrill (9.4 ppg), Alexis Dargenton (4.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 34 blocks) and Norbert Janicek (6.7 ppg, 58% FG's).

Utah State is 4-3, but the three losses were all competitive in true road games against Weber State (59-65), Gonzaga (66-79) and Portland State (79-83).  Gonzaga is one of the best teams in the country, and Portland State has looked amazing against elite competition and will probably win their conference.

The Aggies are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. Missouri Valley opponents.  The Crusaders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  The Crusaders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Utah State Tuesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +7

The Detroit Pistons are showing great value as 7-point road underdogs to the Boston Celtics tonight.  This team has been flying under the radar all season, going 12-6 SU & 12-5-1 ATS in their 18 games.  They just continue to get no respect from oddsmakers night in and night out.

Detroit already has impressive upset road wins over the Warriors, Timberwolves and Thunder this season.  Now the Pistons are in a great spot here as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days, so they are well-rested and ready to go.  They beat Oklahoma City 99-98 as 8.5-point road dogs in their only other game over the past seven days.

The Boston Celtics are starting to get massive respect from oddsmakers thanks to their 18-1 SU & 16-2-1 ATS run over their past 19 games.  It's time to start fading this team now at hefty price tags like this one.  They now have a target on their back and it will be tough for them to live up to the massive expectations they have created for themselves.

Detroit has played Boston extremely tough on the road lately.  The Pistons are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Boston.  The Pistons haven't lost by more than 7 points at Boston in any of the last 10 makings, making for a perfect 10-0 system backing Detroit pertaining to this 7-point spread tonight.  Take the Pistons Monday.

15* Cavs/76ers NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +1

Despite being one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference at 11-7 this season, the Philadelphia 76ers continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They are once again home underdogs here to the Cleveland Cavaliers in what will be a statement game for the 76ers to prove that they can beat the defending Eastern Conference champs.

Philadelphia has gone 11-4 SU & 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games overall.  I has covered six straight coming in.  And now the 76ers are expected to get back star point guard Ben Simmons from an elbow injury tonight.  Star center Joel Embiid is also expected to play through an illness, so the 76ers are at full strength right now aside from Markelle Fultz.

The Cavaliers have been overvalued all season and continue to be.  They are 12-7 SU but just 6-12-1 ATS in their first 17 games.  They are missing three key players in Derrick Rose, Tristan Thompson and Isaiah Thomas, and they just aren't talented enough to win and cover games consistently without these three.  It also doesn't help that the Cavs rank 29th in defensive efficiency, giving up 108.9 points per 100 possessons.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after a close win by 3 points or less are 76-35 (68.5%) ATS since 1996.  The 76ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Philadelphia is 22-5 ATS in its last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Cavs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 trips to Philadelphia.  Roll with the 76ers Monday.

15* UNC/Michigan State ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Michigan State -1

The Michigan State Spartans are absolutely loaded this season.  They have opened 4-1 with their only loss coming to Duke 88-81, which is perhaps the only team that is better than them in the entire country this season.  They are battle-tested and ready to win the PK 80 Invitational with a win over UNC in the Championship Game.

The UNC Tar Heels only returned two starters this season compared to four for the Spartans.  UNC hasn't played a very difficult schedule at all during its 5-0 start with wins over Northern Iowa, Bucknell, Stanford, Portland and Arkansas.  They will be taking a big step up in class here against the Spartans.

Roy Williams is 4-12 ATS as a neutral court underdog as the coach of UNC.  The Tar Heels are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Bet Michigan State Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Grizzlies OVER 210.5

The OVER is 6-0 in Brooklyn's last six games overall.  They have combined for at least 211 points with all six opponents and are averaging 227.5 combined points during this stretch.  I think there's value with the OVER 210.5 Sunday in game games against Memphis.

The reason the Nets play in so many high-scoring games is because they rank 1st in the NBA in pace, averaging 106.5 possessions per game.  They are also 26th in defensive efficiency, giving up 108.3 points per 100 possessions.  Even the offensively-challenged Grizzlies will hang a big number on them here Sunday.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series.  The two meetngs last year saw 215 and 231 combined points.  And the Nets are playing at an even faster pace this season than last, so they should have no problem topping 211 points in their first meeting of 2017-18.

Memphis is 24-8 OVER after being outrebounded by 20 or more boards in its previous game.  Brooklyn is 14-4 OVER when playing six or less games in 14 days over the past two seasons.  The OVER is 37-18-1 in Nets last 56 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Clippers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have no business being favored on the road against the Sacramento Kings tonight.  The Clippers are 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their only win came against one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Atlanta Hawks.  They are decimated by injuries as they are without two starters in Patrick Beverly and Danilo Gallinari.

The Kings don't get the respect they deserve from oddsmakers when playing at home as they still have one of the most udnerrated home-court advantages in the NBA.  That has shown of late.  The Kings are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home games, pulling off four upsets against Oklahoma City (94-86) as 10.5-point dogs, Philadelphia (109-108) as 6.5-point dogs), Portland (86-82) as 7-point dogs and the LA Lakers (113-102) as 1-point dogs.

The Kings are fully healthy right now and playing great basketball.  The same cannot be said for the Clippers.  The wrong team is favored in this one folks as I believe Sacramento wins outright, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.  Take the Kings Saturday.

15* Alabama/Minnesota Top 25 No-Brainer on Minnesota -3.5

Richard Pitino has his best team yet in his sixth season at Minnesota.  The Gophers returned all five starters from a young squad last year, and their chemistry has been sensational to start the season.

Indeed, the Gophers are 6-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season.  They have won all six games by 12 points or more, including an impressive 86-74 road win at Providence as 2.5-point dogs, and a 69-51 win over UMass as 14.5-point favorites to kick off this tournament yesterday.

Alabama has some talent with four returning starters.  But they are without one of those starters in Braxton Key (12.0 ppg, 5.7 rpg) due to a knee injury.  Key led the team in scoring and minutes played last season.

The Crimson Tide are also unbeaten at 5-0, but their undefeated start has been far less impressive than that of Minnesota.  They only beat Texas-Arlington 77-76 as 11-point home favorites.

Alabama is 13-27 ATS in its last 40 off five or more consecutive wins.  Minnesota is 17-8 ATS as a favorite over the past two seasons.  The Gophers are 9-1 ATS in road games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better over the past three seasons.  The Gophers are 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams scoring 77-plus points per game over the last three years.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +8.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a massive letdown spot here tonight.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season Wednesday, a 108-91 domination of the Golden State Warriors in a game that they were determined to prove they could contend in the West.  Mission accomplished.  Now they won't have nearly the same fight against the Detroit Pistons tonight.

Meanwhile, the Pistons will have the fight as they have lost three of their last four games coming in.  They have had three days off in between games to get ready for the Thunder having last played on November 20th.  That will be a huge advantage for them coming into this game.

I really like this Pistons team and feel they are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  That has proven to be the case as they are 11-6 SU & 11-5-1 ATS, yet nobody is talking about them.  They are still trying to earn their respect, and a win over the Thunder today would go a long ways.  This team has impressive road wins over Golden State and Minnesota already this season.  Detroit is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine vs. Western Conference opponents.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +8

The Boston Celtics are in a very tough spot here mentally.  They put a lot into their 16-game winning streak.  But that streak came to an end at Miami on Wednesday.  Now they will suffer a 'hangover' effect from that defeat, and they won't bring the kind of intensity it takes to put Orlando away by 8-plus points tonight.

The Magic will be highly motivated for a victory after losing six straight coming in.  Most of those losses were close, and most came against some of the top teams in the NBA like Golden State, Denver, Portland, and Minnesota, all on the road.  They should be hungry to end this skid against the Boston Celtics tonight.

The Magic will also be out for revenge from an 88-104 home loss to the Celtics in their first and only meeting on November 5th less than three weeks ago.  Motivation is huge in the NBA, and there's no question in my mind that the Magic will want this game more than the Celtics do tonight, which is half the battle, matchups aside.

Frank Vogel is 29-12 ATS in November road games in all games he has coached.  The Magic are 5-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Take the Magic Friday.