20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on FIU/Miami OVER 158

Miami really profiles as an OVER team ranking 71st in adjusted tempo, 54th in average length of offensive possession, 24th in effective FG percentage and 43rd in 3-point percentage.  They are an elite offensive team that has scored at least 82 points in seven of their 10 games this season.

Florida International plays even faster, ranking 38th in adjusted tempo and 10th in average length of offensive possession.  The Panthers are also a solid shooting team ranking 75th in 3-point percentage at 36.4%.

Against teams that profile similar to Miami, FIU lost 96-66 to Nebraska for 162 combined points, 98-81 to LSU for 179 combined points and beat Florida Gulf Coast 89-83 for 172 combined points.  This total of 158 is too short for a game involving these two teams that both like to push the tempo.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Toledo +24.5

This is an obvious letdown spot for the Michigan State Spartans.  Their last four games have come against Penn State, Duke, Iowa and North Carolina.  It's safe to say they won't be nearly as motivated to beat Toledo as they were to beat those four times.

Toledo hasn't lost a game by more than 15 points all season.  The Rockets are a very good offensive team that ranks 90th in adjusted offense.  They have the firepower to keep up with the Spartans, especially since Michigan State ranks just 288th in adjusted tempo.  There will be fewer possessions in this game which will make it tough for the Spartans to get margin.  

We've seen this play out for Michigan State against teams that profile similarly to Toledo already this season.  Michigan State only beat Colgate by 11 as 22-point home favorites and San Jose State by 19 as 24-point home favorites.  They also failed to cover as 30.5-point home favorites against Detroit.  This is my favorite spot to fade the Spartans at home when they have to get margin, because it is so difficult for them to do so.  Bet Toledo Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavs/Jazz OVER 239.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  The Jazz are 15-9 OVER in all games this season averaging 243.9 combined points per game.  It ramps up with the Jazz controlling the pace at home, where they are 9-4 OVER and averaging 252.3 combined points per game with their opponents.

The Dallas Mavericks have sneakily transformed into an OVER team over the last few weeks.  They rank 7th in pace this season so they have made a point of playing faster, it's just that now they can implement it better with the addition of PG Ryan Nembhard, who has been one of the breakout players in the NBA.

What also makes the Mavericks more of an OVER team right now is because they have to play more small ball without Derrick Lively and Daniel Gafford.  The Mavericks are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 243 or more combined points three times.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Heat OVER 234.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace this season playing much faster than anyone else.  This total of 234.5 is very low for a game involving the Heat, especially at home where they control pace.  Miami and its opponents are combining for 241 points per game at home this season.

The Heat have had the last five days off and needed this break as they were starting to wear down playing at such a frenetic pace.  Now I think they will feel like they have unlimited energy and will ramp up the pace even more in their return to action tonight.

The Raptors also needed the break and have had the last five days off as well.  That allowed Immanuel Quickley (16.5 PPG) to get healthy, and now he'll be back in the lineup and the Raptors are much more potent with him than without him.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Raptors and Heat.  This will be their first meeting of the season, so they are unfamiliar with one another which benefits the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Warriors/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Pelicans rank 3rd in pace and 22nd in defensive rating.  They are coming off a 143-120 road loss to the Pelicans and 263 combined points.  They have gone for at least 232 combined points in five of their last six games overall.

The Warriors just got Steph Curry back in the lineup last time out and lost 127-120 at home to the Minnesota Timberwolves for 247 combined points.  Their offense is so much better with Curry in the lineup, especially now that Pat Spencer has emerged for a playmaker for them to make life a little easier on Curry.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Blazers and Warriors with 244 or more combined points in four of those five meetings.  They have combined for 258 and 250 points in their first two meetings this season.  This total of 234.5 is too short given the current state of both teams and the head-to-head history.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pelicans/Bulls OVER 243.5

The Pelicans are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 241 points at the end of regulation in seven of those nine games.

The Pelicans are coming off a 135-132 home loss to the Spurs for 267 combined points and a 143-120 home win over the Blazers for 263 combined points.  Rookie Derik Queen had his first triple-double with 33 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists against San Antonio.  Jordan Poole is now back, and Zion Williamson may return tonight which are two OVER players who are great on offense and terrible on defense.  The Pelicans rank 28th in defensive rating this season.

Now the Pelicans take on another dead nuts OVER team in the Chicago Bulls, who rank 2nd in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  The Bulls are coming off a 129-126 road win at Charlotte for 255 combined points.  That's a Charlotte team that was without both LaMelo Ball and Collin Sexton, two of their best guards.

This will be a rematch from a 143-130 home win by the Pelicans over the Bulls on November 24th for 273 combined points.  Seven Chicago players scored in double-figures, and eight New Orleans players scored in double figures.  It will be more of the same today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -4.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Atlanta Hawks after a 142-115 road loss to one of the best teams in the NBA in the Detroit Pistons on Friday.  They had the previous five days off and were probably a little rusty.  I think we get their best effort here back at home tonight.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Philadelphia 76ers after a 115-105 home win over the Indiana Pacers as 5-point closing favorites.  They trailed 102-100 before going on a 15-3 run in the final minutes in a misleading final.  I know because I had the Pacers +7.5 and it was a terrible beat.  But I'll get my money back here by fading them again.

The 76ers will be without their best player in Tyrese Maxey (31.5 PPG, 7.2 APG).  They are without Kelly Oubre (16.8 PPG), and Joel Embiid (20.3 PPG) is questionable.  Maxey had 44 points and 9 assists in a 142-134 (OT) home loss to the Hawks in their first meeting this season.

The Hawks have owned the 76ers going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  It will be more of the same today without Maxey.  Bet the Hawks Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Western Michigan/Iowa UNDER 142

Iowa is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Hawkeyes rank 357th in adjusted tempo and 355th in average length of offensive possession at 19.4 seconds.  They are also 26th in adjusted defense.  The UNDER is 3-1 in Iowa's last four games overall combining for 105 points with Grand Canyon, 123 with Michigan State and 128 with Iowa State.

Western Michigan is in no hurry as well ranking 203rd in average length of offensive possession at 17.5 seconds.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, especially with Iowa dictating the tempo at home.  This total of 142 is too high as a result.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Spurs/Thunder NBA Cup ANNIHILATOR on OVER 224.5

The Spurs are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 237 or more combined points in six of those seven games, and 226 or more in all seven.  They just went for 251 combined points with the Lakers in the NBA Cup quarterfinals.  This total of 224.5 is too short for a game involving the Spurs right now.

The Thunder are rolling offensively scoring at least 123 points in six consecutive games while going 5-1 OVER in those six games with 232 or more combined points in all six.  This total of 224.5 is pretty low for a game involving the Thunder right now as well.  Both offenses should stay hot enough to get over this low total tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* SMU/LSU SEC Network ANNIHILATOR on OVER 157.5

SMU is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Mustangs rank 60th in adjusted tempo and 24th in average length of offensive possession.  They are a very good offensive team ranking 49th in adjusted offense.  The Mustangs are scoring 89.8 points per game on 49% shooting.

LSU also likes to play fast ranking 91st in adjusted tempo and 34th in average length of offensive possession.  The Tigers are 53rd in adjusted offense scoring 88.4 points per game on 50.3% shooting.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Knicks/Magic NBA Cup No-Brainer on UNDER 224

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will already be the 4th meeting of the season between the Magic and Knicks.  That includes a 106-100 win by the Knicks in the most recent meeting on December 7th less than a week ago for just 206 combined points.

It should be another low-scoring, defensive battle in the 4th meeting today.  This is a 2:30 EST tipoff in Las Vegas and in an unfamiliar shooting background at T-Mobile Arena.  We've seen teams struggle with it in the past as unders have been a great bet in these NBA Cup game, where defensive intensity is high when it's win or go home.

Injuries have taken away from the firepower of both offenses in this one.  The Magic will be without Franz Wagner (22.7 PPG), while the Knicks will be without Miles McBride (11.6 PPG) and Landy Shamet (9.3 PPG).  Both teams prefer to play at slower paces, and this one will likely be played at even more of a snail's pace with what's at stake.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Akron/Murray State OVER 173.5

Akron is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Zips rank 39th in adjusted tempo, 26th in average length of offensive possession, 15th in adjusted offense and 154th in adjusted defense.  The Zips are 6-3 OVER in their nine lined games and are scoring 95.4 points per game this season.

Murray State is a dead nuts OVER team as well.  The Racers are living up to their nicknames, ranking 35th in adjusted tempo and 65th in average length of offensive possession.  They profile similarly to Akron in that they are much better on offense (82nd) than they are on defense (170th).  They are scoring 88 points per game on the season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois -9.5

No team in the country has bigger home/road splits than the Nebraska Cornhuskers over the last several seasons.  The Huskers simply do not lose at home, but they also do not win on the road.  And this will be their first true road game of the season.

There's a reason the Huskers are nearly double-digit underdogs here despite their perfect 10-0 record.  They are in a massive letdown spot after a 90-60 home win over Wisconsin which followed up a 71-50 home win over Creighton.  Things could not have gone any better for them in those two games, most notably poor shooting by their opponents.

This will now be by far Nebraska's toughest test of the season after facing just the 156th-toughest schedule in the country to this point.  Illinois is much more battle-tested facing the 36th-toughest schedule.

Illinois has two losses, but both came on a neutral to two of the best teams in the country in Alabama and UConn.  They also have a neutral court win over Tennessee by 13, a home win over Texas Tech and an impressive road win at Ohio State.  This Nebraska team is actually a step down in class for them compared to what they have faced thus far.

The Fighting Illini rank 5th in adjusted offense and 24th in adjusted defense with very few weaknesses.  They have won 9 of their last 10 meetings with the Huskers with their lone loss coming in OT on the road.  They have won their last five home meetings with the Huskers with four of those wins coming by double-digits.  Bet Illinois Saturday.

15* Big Ten Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nebraska/Illinois OVER 157.5

Illinois is an elite offensive team ranking 5th in the country in adjusted offense.  The Fighting Illini are scoring 88.6 points per game and they will hang a big number on Nebraska today to lead the way in us cashing this OVER 157.5 ticket.

Nebraska likes to play fast ranking 119th in adjusted tempo and 69th in average length of offensive possession.  The Huskers are scoring 83.9 points per game this season and just hung 90 on Wisconsin last time out.  They will be forced to try and play even faster once they get behind big.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on CS-Fullerton/Denver OVER 169.5

Denver is a dead nuts OVER team going 8-0-1 OVER in their nine games this season.  What makes the Pioneers such an OVER team is ranking 111th in adjusted offense but just 363rd in adjusted defense.  Only two teams in the entire country have been worse than them defensively.

What makes Fullerton a dead nuts OVER team is that they play at a break-neck pace.  The Titans rank 4th in adjusted tempo and 5th in average length of offensive possession.  They are also a terrible defensive team ranking 264th in adjusted defense.  The Titans are 4-2 OVER in their last six games.  They have gone for 168 or more combined points in five of their last seven games overall, and 182 or more in four of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Arkansas/Texas Tech ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 155.5

Arkansas is an elite defensive team under John Calipari ranking 28th in adjusted defense.  The Razorbacks are 6-3 to the UNDER this season.  This game will be played at 12:00 EST this afternoon, so it will be a sleepy atmosphere and likely a slow start at a neutral venue at American Airlines Arena in Dallas.

Texas Tech is in no hurry ranking 236th in adjusted tempo.  The Red Raiders are even better defensively than the Razorbacks, ranking 20th in adjusted defense.  They are 6-1 UNDER in their last seven games overall finishing with 148 or fewer combined points in each of their last four.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Indiana Pacers +7.5

The Indiana Pacers have gotten healthier and are playing their best basketball of the season as a result.  The Pacers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and coming off a 15-point road win at Chicago followed by an 11-point home win over the Kings.  They've had the last three days off and are primed for another big effort tonight on the road against the Philadelphia 76ers.

The 76ers have also gotten healthier but are just 6-6 SU & 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Their six wins came against some the worst teams in the NBA by 2 over the Clippers at home, in OT at Milwaukee without Giannis, again at Milwaukee without Giannis, by 1 over the Warriors at home without Curry and wins over the Nets and Wizards, arguably the two worst teams in the East.

The 76ers have suffered home losses to the Raptors by 9, the Heat by 10, the Magic by 41 and the Hawks by 8 during this stretch.  They should not be laying 7.5 points to the Pacers tonight, especially with Tyrese Maxey getting downgraded to questionable today with an illness.  They likely won't cover whether or not he goes, but if he doesn't go this line will crash.  

The Pacers own the 76ers, going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with their lone loss coming in OT.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

15* Nuggets/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 238.5

The Denver Nuggets are a dead nuts OVER team right now without their best defender in Aaron Gordon.  They haven't missed a beat offensively without him as they rank 1st in offensive rating this season largely due to the playmaking of Nikola Jokic.  They've had to go even more small ball without Gordon and the result has been a string of high-scoring games.

Indeed, the Nuggets are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 240 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  They have gone for 240 or more combined points in 10 of their last 13 games as well.  This total of 238.5 is too short for a game involving the Nuggets right now.

The Kings rank 26th in defensive rating this season and have basically just quit playing defense.  But they have been able to keep up with the Nuggets in shootouts with the OVER going 3-1 in the last four meetings with 240 or more combined points in three of those four meetings.  That includes their 128-123 win in Denver on November 22nd for 251 combined points in their last meeting.  It should be another shootout tonight in Sacramento.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

25* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Blazers/Pelicans OVER 237.5

The Pelicans are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 241 points at the end of regulation in six of those eight games.  The Pelicans have been OVER machines at home, going 8-1 OVER in their last nine home games.

The Pelicans are coming off a 135-132 home loss to the Spurs for 267 combined points.  Rookie Derik Queen had his first triple-double with 33 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists.  His playmaking ability as their lone big man makes them a very good offensive team.  Trey Murphy had 32 points in the loss.  There's a chance to Pelicans get Jordan Poole back tonight for even more offensive firepower.  But the Pelicans rank 29th in defensive rating this season and that's just not fixable at this point.

The Blazers profile as a dead nuts OVER team as well ranking 3rd in pace and 20th in defensive rating.  They are 15-9 OVER in all games this season.  They will be without C Donovan Clingan and his backup Robert Williams is questionable as well.  The Blazers will likely go small ball tonight to match up with the Pelicans.

This is a rematch from a 125-117 home win by the Pelicans on November 12th for 242 combined points in their first and only meeting this season.  Sharpe had 35 points and Advija 32 points in that first meeting, and they should have monster games again.  Queen had 26 points, Murphy 22 and Bey 25 in that first meeting.  Neither team shot lights out with the Pelicans at 33% from 3 and the Blazers 35% from 3.  So there is room for improvement in that department and an even higher-scoring game in the rematch.  This total of 237.5 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Iowa/Iowa State FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -10.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are like the Michigan Wolverines right now as oddsmakers just can't set their spreads high enough.  Those are the top two teams in Kenpom currently.  They have failed to set this number high enough, too.

The Cyclones are 9-0 SU & 7-1-1 ATS this season with eight wins by 16 points or more.  They beat Mississippi State by 16, Creighton by 18 and Syracuse by 31 on neutrals.  They beat No. 1 ranked Purdue by 23 in a true road game last time out which was the most impressive single result for any team this season if it wasn't Michigan's 40-point win over Gonzaga on a neutral.

If Iowa State was playing anyone but Iowa off that Purdue win, this would be a letdown spot.  But the Cyclones will have no problem getting back up to face their in-state rival tonight.  I expect them to make easy work of the Hawkeyes tonight.

Iowa is getting some respect after a 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS start this season.  But the Hawkeyes have benefited from the 209th-ranked schedule with six home games against overmatched competition.  They did beat Ole Miss and Grand Canyon on a neutral, but in their lone true road game they lost 71-52 at Michigan State.  

I see this game playing out just as poorly for them in their 2nd true road game in what will be a very hostile atmosphere at Hilton Coliseum.  I also think the Hawkeyes are very predictable with only Bennett Stirtz (18.8 PPG) averaging more than 8.8 PPG for the Hawkeyes.  Stop Stirtz and you stop the Hawkeyes, and one of the best head coaches in the country in TJ Otzelberger will have the answers for him tonight.  Bet Iowa State Thursday.

20* Spurs/Lakers NBA Cup No-Brainer on San Antonio +7.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 8-3 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games without Victor Wembenyama.  That includes their 139-136 win as 7-point road dogs at Denver that got them into the NBA Cup quarterfinals.

They did most of that damage even without Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper.  Well, both Castle and Harper are back now, and the Spurs have plenty of ammo to give the Lakers a run for their money tonight on the road.

The teams the Spurs struggle with right now without Wembenyama would be teams with dominant big men that can take advantage of their lack of rim protection.  The Lakers don't possess that with only De'Andre Ayton the only threat, but he is more of an afterthought with James, Doncic and Reaves running the show.

These teams profile very similarly with elite guard play, very good offense and a lack of defense.  I think the Spurs can hang with the Lakers in a shootout tonight in a game that is decided on the final few possessions.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on UT-Martin +8.5

UT-Martin has played its best basketball in true road games this season.  The Skyhawks actually went 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three true road games against very good competition.  They upset UNLV 86-81 as 17.5-point road dogs, upset Bradley 78-67 as 15.5-point road dogs and hung with Florida State in a 87-73 loss as 20-point road dogs.

This will be the easiest true road game of the season to this point for the Skyhawks, and I fully expect them to stay within this 8.5-point spread against Southern Illinois.  The Salukis are 5-4 this season with their five wins coming against McKendree, Kansas City, Delaware, Little Rock and High Point.  Three of those teams rank outside the Top 279 in KenPom plus McKendree.

UT-Martin is holding opponents to 9.0 points per game below their season averages defensively.  Southern Illinois is actually allowing 1.1 points per game more than their opponents typically average.  I'll gladly side with the better defensive team here in the Skyhawks, and fade a poor shooting Salukis team that ranks 341st in 3-point percentage at 27.4%.  Bet UT-Martin Wednesday.

15* Suns/Thunder NBA Cup ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 226.5

The NBA Cup and the NBA Playoffs are where teams actually try hard on defense.  The books opened this total at a number that is in line with what it would be for any regular season game.  But this isn't just any regular season game, teams have to win to advance and there's real money on the line.

I was on both UNDERS last night and both came through with ease.  Orlando beat Miami 117-108 for 225 combined points with a 235-point closing total.  New York beat Toronto 117-101 for 218 combined points and a 226.5-point closing total.

These teams just squared off on November 28th in Oklahoma City in the final game of NBA Cup Group Play.  That total was set at 223, and this total has been moved up to 226.5 for the rematch after a shootout broke out in that first meeting in a 123-119 victory for the Thunder.  The Suns kept fighting late into the 4th quarter because they needed to get in on point differential.

I think this game will play out much differently.  The Thunder get back both Lu Dort and Alex Caruso for this one, which are two of their best defenders but neither is great on the offensive end.  They won't have Isaiah Joe, arguably their best shooter.  The Thunder rank 1st in defensive rating by 6.6 points per game.  Nothing will come easy for the Suns tonight, who may be without Devin Booker again.  I like the UNDER whether or not he plays.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  These teams just played on November 28th.  They have both had plenty of time to prepare to stop one another in the rematch.  The Thunder have had the last two days off and will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days here.  The Suns will be playing just their 3rd game in 9 days.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Knicks/Raptors NBA Cup No-Brainer on UNDER 231.5

I released this total on Monday and it has since been bet down.  I would still play it as a 20* at 225 or higher, and a 15* at anything less than that.

The NBA Cup and the NBA Playoffs are where teams actually try hard on defense.  The books opened this total at a number that is in line with what it would be for any regular season game.  But this isn't just any regular season game, teams have to win to advance and there's real money on the line.

Injuries are a big reason I'm on the UNDER.  The Raptors have been lost on offense without RJ Barrett (19.4 PPG).  They have been held to 97 points or fewer in three of their last seven games.  Now Immanuel Quickley (16.5 PPG, 6.2 APG) was downgraded to questionable with an illness today.  Backup PG Jamal Shead (5.8 PPG) is questionable as well.

The Knicks will be without Miles McBride (11.6 PPG) and Landry Shamet (9.3 PPG), plus Karl-Anthony Towns (22.5 PPG) missed last game and is questionable with a calf injury.  I have to think he'll be on a minutes limit at the very least as teams have been very cautious with these calf injuries.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The Knicks just beat the Raptors 116-94 on November 30th for 210 combined points.  Now they meet again here nine days later and the total has actually been set higher at 231.5 than it was in that first meeting (229.5).  There's clearly value on the UNDER given the injuries and the familiarity.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Illinois/Ohio State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State +5.5

Illinois is overvalued off a 13-point win over an overrated Tennessee team on a neutral on Saturday.  Keep in mind they only beat Texas Tech by 4 at home, and lost outright to Alabama and UConn (by 13) on a neutral already this season.  This will now be their first true road game of the season and their Big Ten opener, and they should not be favored at Ohio State.

This Buckeyes team looks like a wagon this season with a home win over Notre Dame and a road win at Northwestern to open Big Ten play.  Their only loss came by a single point at Pitt.  I love the balance at the top with Thornton (20.1 PPG), Tilly (14.1 PPG), Mobley Jr. (14.0 PPG) and Royal (13.4 PPG).  They have the horses to give Illinois a run for its money tonight.  Bet Ohio State Tuesday.

15* Clemson/BYU ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Clemson +6.5

Clemson has wins over Georgia and West Virginia on a neutral this season.  The Tigers suffered both losses in true road games at Georgetown by 5 and at Alabama by 6.  They are back on a neutral here at Madison Square Garden, and I don't expect them to suffer their first loss by more than 6 points tonight.

BYU is 6-1 with a 2-point loss to UConn.  The win over Wisconsin was impressive, but the narrow wins over Miami and Dayton were not.  I just think this Cougars team is overrated.  They are not 6.5 points better than Clemson on a neutral.  I have this spread closer to 3.  Bet Clemson Tuesday.

20* Heat/Magic NBA Cup No-Brainer on UNDER 240.5

I released this total on Sunday when I found out Franz Wagner was injured for the Magic.  I was already going to be on the UNDER either way, but this total has been bet down since as I expected.  I would still play it as a 20* at 235 or higher, and a 15* at anything less than that.

The NBA Cup and the NBA Playoffs are where teams actually try hard on defense.  The books opened this total at a number that is in line with what it would be for any regular season game.  But this isn't just any regular season game, teams have to win to advance and there's real money on the line.

The loss of Wagner (22.7 PPG) is a huge blow to the Magic.  They are much easier to defend without him.  They have also been playing much slower since Paulo Blanchero returned from injury, and they have been worse with him than without him.  Jalen Suggs (14.6 PPG, 4.7 APG) is also dealing with a knee injury that he will be playing through.

The Heat are 3-0 UNDER in their last three games overall and have been playing a little slower here of late as it was going to be tough to keep up that pace all season.  The Magic want to play slower tonight, and they will likely control the tempo playing at home.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will actually be the rd meeting of the season already between Miami and Orlando.  These teams just played on December 5th in Orlando with the Magic winning 106-105 for just 211 combined points.  This total cannot be set this high in the rematch here just four days later with defensive intensity turned up to the max.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Cup Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Miami Heat PK

The loss of Franz Wagner (22.7 PPG) is a huge blow to the Magic.  They are much easier to defend without him.  They have also been playing much slower since Paulo Blanchero returned from injury, and they have been worse with him than without him.  Jalen Suggs (14.6 PPG, 4.7 APG) is also dealing with a knee injury that he will be playing through.

The Heat are fully healthy for this game and want revenge on the Magic after two losses in Orlando already this season by a combined 5 points.  That includes their 106-105 loss in Orlando on December 5th just four days ago.  The ultimate revenge would be to win this NBA Cup Game, and I like their chances given the injury advantage.

Wagner had 24 points in the first meeting and 32 points in the second meeting with the Heat.  Losing all that production will be too tough for the Magic to overcome tonight.  The Heat have had the last two days off while the Magic just played in New York on Sunday in the game Wagner got hurt.  The rest, health, and motivational advantages have me on Miami in this one.  Bet the Heat Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on New Orleans Pelicans +9.5

This is the ultimate flat spot for the San Antonio Spurs.  They have their NBA Cup quarterfinal game on deck against the Lakers Wednesday.  They will be overlooking the Pelicans and looking ahead to the Lakers and will not put their best foot forward tonight.  That will make it very difficult for them to win by double-digits, which is what it's going to take to beat us.

The Pelicans continue to play hard despite a tough season to this point.  They have gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  These are the types of teams you can make money on in the NBA that have poor records but show up every night.

The Pelicans want revenge from a pair of close losses to the Spurs already this season by 4 in OT at home and by 7 on the road.  Victor Wembenyama played in both of those games for the Spurs.  Now they won't have him, and the Pelicans should easily stay within this inflated number tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Pelicans OVER 236.5

The Spurs are having to play more small ball without Victor Wembenyama.  The result has been a 4-1 OVER run with 247, 245, 237 and 273 combined points in the four OVERS.  I question their defensive intensity for this game with an NBA Cup game on deck Wednesday.

The Pelicans are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 241 points at the end of regulation in five of those seven games.  The Pelicans have been OVER machines at home, going 7-1 OVER in their last eight home games.

The Spurs beat the Pelicans 126-119 at home for 245 combined points in their last meeting on November 8th.  Zion Williams didn't play in that game either.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Lakers/76ers NBA No-Brainer on OVER 232.5

The Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team going 16-6 OVER in all games this season.  They get Luka Doncic back and should be at full strength with the exception of Marcus Smart, who is one of their best defenders but they don't miss anything with him on offense.

The 76ers will be about as healthy as they have been all season tonight.  They will have Paul George and Joel Embiid available today to go along with Maxey, Edgecombe and Grimes.  They are primed for one of their biggest offensive outputs of the season with all of these guys available.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Texas A&M/SMU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 164

Two elite offensive teams square off tonight in what should be a very up-tempo game featuring a ton of scoring between SMU and Texas A&M.  This total of 164 is too short given the styles of both teams.

SMU ranks 79th in adjusted tempo, 19th in average length of offensive possession and 47th in adjusted offense.  The Mustangs are scoring 89.4 points per game on 48.8% shooting and 33.9% from 3-point range.

Texas A&M ranks 54th in adjusted tempo, 16th in average length of offensive possession and 46th in adjusted offense.  The Aggies are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 167 or more combined points three times.  They are scoring 92.2 points per game on 47.1% shooting and 38.1% from 3-point range.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Mavs OVER 223

The Mavericks scored 120.5 points per game in their four games prior to facing the top defensive team in the NBA in the Thunder last night in a 132-111 loss.  They are finding some great chemistry with Flagg, Nembhard and Davis in the lineup.  Nembhard had 15 points and 13 assists against Miami and he had 28 points and 10 assists against Denver.  Flagg has had 35, 24, 22 and 16 points in his last four games.  Davis had 32 points and 13 rebounds against the Nuggets and 17 points and 17 rebounds against the Heat. 

Because of the blowout nature of that loss to the Thunder, no starter even played 30 minutes for the Mavericks.  They should still be very fresh tonight and ready to run.  Anthony Davis has said he will play even though it's the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They will likely still be without Lively II and Gafford, their two big men who are key for them defensively.  They have had to go more small ball without them which is why they are 4-1 OVER in their last five games with 224 or more combined points in all five.

The Rockets are coming off a 117-98 home win over the Suns last night.  The blowout nature of that win also allowed the Rockets to rest their starters in the 4th.  It was a disastrous shooting game for the Suns who were without Devin Booker.  The Suns shot 39% from the floor and 5-of-36 (14%) from 3-point range which kept it under the total.

Steven Adams has already been ruled out for this game on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  The Rockets will have to go more small ball tonight, which will favor the OVER.  They could also get Alperun Sengun back from an illness that kept him out last night.  The Rockets rank 4th in offensive rating this season.  The Mavericks rank 6th in pace and will control the tempo at home tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -2.5

Northern Iowa is one of the few teams in the country that returned almost everyone from last season.  The chemistry has been there for the Panthers as a result, leading to a 7-1 start that has featured an upset road win over UC Irvine and a 21-point win over Loyola-Chicago on a neutral.

Wichita State has five new starters this season.  The Shockers are 5-4 this season beating the five worst teams they have faced, and losing to the four best.  They don't have a win over a team that ranks inside the top 225 on Kenpom.  They won't be beating Northern Iowa which slots in at 91st, either.  

This will be a big home-court advantage with a Saturday night game for the Panthers.  They are 5-0 at home this season outscoring opponents by 26 points per game.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on William & Mary +14

William & Mary is one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Tribe have opened 8-2 this season with their only losses coming on the road to St. John's and to Richmond (by 4).  They are 7-1 ATS in lined games and have played seven of their first 10 games on the highway against the 85th-ranked schedule.  Their up-tempo style is giving teams fits as it's tough to prepare for.

George Washington is also off to a solid 7-2 start this season but it has come against the 279th-ranked schedule.  That's nearly 200 spots easier than the slate that William & Mary has faced.  They also lost to the two of the three best teams they played in McNeese State and Murray State, and only beat USF by 4.  The Revolutionaries have no business being a 14-point favorite tonight.  Bet William & Mary Saturday.

15* Seton Hall/K-State ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on OVER 145.5

This total of 145.5 is way too short for a game involving Kansas State.  The Wildcats are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 34th in adjusted tempo, 55th in adjusted offense and 127th in adjusted defense.  They are 20th in average length of offensive possession at 15 seconds.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

The Wildcats are 6-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 148 or more combined points i all eight games, making for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 145.5-point total.  They have gone for 155 or more combined points in seven of their eight games as well.

Seton Hall will be playing its first true road game of the season and will not be able to dictate the tempo like they would at home.  They went for 159 combined points with NC State and 164 with USC, two teams with a similar profile to K-State that like to play fast.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Akron/Tulane OVER 163.5

Akron profiles as a dead nuts OVER team.  The Zips rank 44th in the country in adjusted tempo and 23rd in average length of offensive possession at 15 seconds.  They have an elite offense ranking 217th in adjusted offense but a terrible defense at 168th.

Akron is 6-2 OVER in all games this season while scoring 96.2 points per game.  They have topped this total of 163.5 with their opponents in six of eight games against D-1 competition.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games combining for 181 points with Yale, 186 with Milwaukee and 174 with Bucknell.

Tulane is also much better on offense (101st) than it is on defense (314th).  The Green Wave have played a lot of slow-paced teams this season so this will be a shock to the system as Akron pushes 100 after scoring 94 or more points in five consecutive games and seven of its last eight overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Toledo/Oakland OVER 165

Oakland has gone through a transformation under legendary coach Greg Kampe to play a lost faster this season.  The Golden Grizzlies rank 64th in adjusted tempo, 73rd in adjusted offense and 287th in adjusted defense.

The result has been the Golden Grizzlies being a dead nuts OVER team going 7-1 OVER in all games this season with 160 or more combined points in seven of nine games.  They just went for 182 with Montana, 188 with a dead nuts under team in Eastern Michigan, 170 with UCF and 193 with IPFW in four of their last five games.

This figures to be a shootout with Toledo, which like Oakland is much better on offense than defense.  The Rockets rank 90th in adjusted offense but just 303rd in adjusted defense.  They went for 173 combined points with Detroit and 167 with Youngstown State.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Buffalo +6.5

Buffalo is 8-0 SU & 6-1 ATS this season and one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Bulls upset Depaul by 13 as 18.5-point underdogs.  They have had the last week off and will be very motivated to return home for just their 5th home game of the season after an 18-point win at Canisius.

St. Bonaventure is one of the more overrated teams in the country after a 8-1 start to the season.  But the Bonnies are just 3-5 ATS in lined games.  They beat Canisius by 19 at home to give these teams a common opponent, whereas Buffalo beat Canisius by 18 on the road.  Five of their 18 wins have come by single-digits.  Bet Buffalo Saturday.

15* Duke/Michigan State FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 142.5

Both Michigan State and Duke are dead nuts UNDER teams.  The Spartans rank 307th in adjusted tempo and 4th in adjusted defense.  The Blue Devils rank 237th in adjusted tempo and 6th in adjusted defense.  This game will be played at a snail's pace and nothing will come easy for either offense.

Duke is 8-1 UNDER in all games this season.  The Blue Devils are coming off a 67-66 win over Florida for just 133 combined points with a 157-point total.  Michigan State is 6-1 UNDER in its last seven games overall finishing with 140 or fewer combined points in five of those seven.  They beat Iowa 71-52 for 123 combined points and UNC 74-58 for 132 combined points in their last two games coming in.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Mavs/Thunder NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 229.5

The Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team right now due to injuries to three of their best defenders in Dort, Caruso and Hartenstein.  The Thunder are 3-0 OVER in their last three games going for 242 combined points with Phoenix, 238 with Portland and 236 with the Warriors, who were without Stephen Curry.  They don't miss a beat offensively without those three and are actually better on that end, but they don't defend nearly as well.

The Mavericks have scored 120.5 points per game in their last four games and are finding some great chemistry with Flagg, Nembhard and Davis in the lineup.  Nembhard had 15 points and 13 assists last game against Miami and he had 28 points and 10 assists the game prior against Denver.  Flagg has had 35, 24 and 22 points in his last three games.  Davis had 32 points and 13 rebounds against the Nuggets and 17 points and 17 rebounds against the Heat in his last two games.  

This trio is good enough to keep the Mavericks competitive for four quarters tonight as they keep up with the Thunder in a shootout.  The Mavericks rank 6th in pace this season as they have had a change in philosophy to play much faster.  They are also without their two big men in Lively II and Gafford, which makes them play more small ball which favors the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas Mavericks +15.5

There has been a lot of talk recently about the Oklahoma City Thunder and possibly setting the NBA record for most wins in a season after a 21-1 start.  With that hype and attention comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very tough to live up to.

We have seen that play out recently as the Thunder are 1-3 ATS in their last four games needing a late run to win by 12 as 11-point favorites against the Warriors without Curry last time out in their lone cover.  They won by 8 over Minnesota as 10.5-point favorites, by 4 over Phoenix as 14.5-point favorites and by 8 over Portland as 11.5-point favorites.  So they have four straight wins by 12 points or fewer.

A big reason the Thunder are struggling to get margin is also due to injuries to three very underrated players in Hartenstein, Dort and Caruso.  Those are three of their best defenders especially the latter two, and they just aren't guarding teams as well.

The Mavericks have proven just how competitive they can be when Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg and Ryan Nembhard are all healthy and playing at the same time.  They are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with a 4-point loss at Miami, a 10-point loss at LA Lakers, a upset win as 9-point dogs at LA Clippers, a upset win by 10 as 11-point dogs at Denver and a upset win by 10 as 4.5-point home dogs to Miami.

Nembhard had 15 points and 13 assists last game against Miami and he had 28 points and 10 assists the game prior against Denver.  Flagg has had 35, 24 and 22 points in his last three games.  Davis had 32 points and 13 rebounds against the Nuggets and 17 points and 17 rebounds against the Heat in his last two games.  This trio is good enough to keep the Mavericks competitive for four quarters tonight.  Bet the Mavericks Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks ML +105

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  Giannis went out after 3 minutes with another calf injury in their last game, and the Bucks still went on to upset the Pistons 113-109.  They are better equipped to handle playing without Giannis right now than they were earlier.

Kevin Porter Jr. recently returned from injury and is an elite scorer.  He had 26 points against the Pistons and 30 the game prior.  Ryan Rollins has been a pleasant surprise and is one of the most improved players in the NBA.  Myles Turner is one of the best big man in the game, AJ Green is a sharp shooter, and the Bucks still have Kuzma and Portis coming off the bench to provide scoring.

The spot is a terrible one for the 76ers.  They hit the game-winner with 0.6 seconds left last night to beat the short-handed Warriors 99-98, a Warriors team that was playing without Curry and Butler while Green only played 9 minutes before going out with injury.  The fact that they still struggled to win that game says a lot.

Now the 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and will be without Embiid, Oubre and possibly George and others.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Bucks tonight.  The Bucks also want revenge from a 123-114 (OT) home loss to the 76ers on November 20th without Giannis.  The Bucks are still 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the 76ers.  Bet the Bucks on the Money Line Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Knicks OVER 238.5

The Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in pace and 26th in defensive rating.  The Knicks rank 4th in offensive rating and just 15th in defensive rating.  The Knicks are an elite offensive team this season under new head coach Mike Brown, but they have slipped a lot defensively.

The Jazz are 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall finishing with 247 or more combined points in eight of those 11 games.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games on the 2nd of a back-to-back going for 280 combined points with Indiana at the end of regulation, 251 points with the Warriors and 258 points with the Rockets.  They tend to not miss a beat offensively in these situations and relax even more on defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT Nuggets/Hawks OVER 237.5

The Nuggets are a dead nuts OVER team right now without their best defender in Aaron Gordon.  The Nuggets rank 1st in the entire NBA in offensive rating, but their defense has taken a major hit.  The Nuggets are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall finishing with 240 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.  They have scored at least 121 points in 11 of their last 12 games overall.  This total of 237.5 is very short for a game involving Denver right now.

Atlanta got good news today with both Jalen Johnson (23.2 PPG) and Kristaps Porzingis (18.7 PPG) participating in shootaround, meaning both are likely to return from injury.  They have missed them playing a pair of low-scoring games in a row in losses to the Clippers and Pistons.  But with them likely back, the Hawks transform into much more of an OVER team with what those two bring to the table offensively.

The Hawks went 8-2 OVER in their previous 10 games in which Johnson played almost all of them, and Porzingis many of them.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Hawks and Nuggets finishing with 251 or more combined points in each of their last four.  This total of 237.5 is very low given the head-to-head history as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Magic OVER 239.5

The Magic are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall finishing with 254, 267, 247 and 245 combined points in four of their last six games.  Suggs, Wagner and Bane have been playing elite basketball on the offensive end, and now Banchero is back tonight to make the Magic one of the most potent offensive teams in the NBA.

The Heat are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in pace this season.  They get leading scorer Norman Powell (25.0 PPG, 45.8% 3-pointers) back from injury tonight and their offense is just so much more potent with him in the lineup.  They missed him last game shooting just 40% from the floor and 11-of-37 (30%) from 3 in a loss at Dallas.

The Magic beat the Heat 125-121 for 246 combined points in their first and only meeting this season.  Powell had 28 points to lead the way for the Heat.  Wagner (24), Banchero (24), Bane (23) and Suggs (14) all had solid games for the Magic.  Neither team shot lights out with the Heat at 48% overall and 34% from 3 and the Magic at 47% overall and 40% from 3.  There's actually room for more in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +12

I love the spot for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.  They want revenge from a 149-142 (OT) home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday.  They get their shot at revenge here two days later and the line is basically the same as they were 12.5-point dogs in the first meeting.

This line hasn't been adjusted enough down for the fact that the Pelicans will be the much more motivated team in the rematch.  The Timberwolves will likely just be going through the motions for this one.  They have just one win by more than 11 points in their last seven games, going 4-3 SU & 2-5 ATS in those seven games.  The Pelicans have quietly gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Pelicans OVER 232.5

The Pelicans are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall and coming off 254 combined points with the Lakers and 291 with the Timberwolves, with 258 at the end of regulation.  New Orleans is 6-1 OVER in its last seven home games finishing with 235 or more combined points in five of their last six home games.  The Pelicans rank 29th in defensive rating this season.

The Timberwolves have gone OVER the total in their last threegames finishing with 237 combined points with San Antonio, 234 with Boston and 258 at the end of regulation with the Pelicans.  They have improved drastically on offense ranking 6th in offensive rating this season, largely due to bringing Mike Conley off the bench instead of starting him.  They play a lot faster without him running the offense.

This will be a rematch from Tuesday when the Timberwolves beat the Pelicans 149-142 (OT) in a game that was at 258 combined points at the end of regulation.  We have a lot of room to spare here in the rematch with this OVER 232.5.  

The Pelicans have to play more small ball without Missi and Zion, so they are basically playing four guards around electric rookie Derick Queen.  He had 21 points, 8 rebounds and 6 assists in that first meeting as four starters scored at least 21 points for the Pelicans.  It should be more of the same tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors -2

The Toronto Raptors are 8-0 SU in their last eight home games.  It will be an electric atmosphere in Toronto tonight with the Los Angeles Lakers coming to town.  I fully expect the Raptors to win and cover tonight for their 9th consecutive home win.

The Lakers will be without Luka Doncic (35.3 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 8.9 APG) tonight due to personal reasons.  LeBron James is far from 100%, and the Lakers are going to be lost without Doncic tonight.  He is worth more to the spread for them than is being factored into this line.  Bet the Raptors Thursday.

20* SMU/Vanderbilt CBB No-Brainer on OVER 166.5

Two elite offensive teams square off tonight in what should be a very up-tempo game featuring a ton of scoring between SMU and Vanderbilt.  This total of 166.5 is too short given the styles of both teams.

Vanderbilt ranks 39th in adjusted tempo, 32nd in average length of offensive possession and 4th in offensive efficiency in the entire country.  They put up 96 points on one of the best defenses in the country in St. Mary's last time out and are averaging 97.9 points per game on 52.1% shooting including 40.2% from 3-point range on the season.

SMU ranks 50th in adjusted tempo, 13th in average length of offensive possession and 46th in adjusted offense.  The Mustangs are scoring 92.0 points per game on 49.6% shooting and 36.1% from 3-point range.  They have the firepower to keep up with Vanderbilt in an up-tempo shootout tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Eastern Washington/Denver OVER 155

Denver is a dead nuts OVER team due to being much better on offense than they are on defense. The Pioneers rank 140th in adjusted offense but 354th in adjusted defense.  They are 6-0-1 OVER in their seven games this season finishing with 154 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  This total of 155 is too short for a game involving Denver.

Eastern Washington has a similar profile ranking 136th in adjusted tempo, 187th in adjusted offense and 314th in adjusted defense.  The Eagles are 5-1 OVER in their six lined games this season finishing with 154 or more combined points in five of their seven games.  Bet the OVER in this game between two pathetic defensive teams Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Mavericks OVER 239.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace this season by a wide margin.  They went for 263 combined points with the Clippers and 273 with the Pistons in their last two games.  They have gone for 239 or more combined points in five of their last six road games.

The Mavericks have changed their philosophy to play faster this season just like the Heat.  The Mavericks rank 6th in pace and have two young guards playing well in Flagg and Nembhard.  They just got Anthony Davis back, and both games with Davis in the lineup were very high-scoring as they combined for 248 points with the Lakers and 252 with the Nuggets.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Kings/Rockets OVER 230.5

The Kings rank 25th in defensive rating this season and will be up against a Houston Rockets team that ranks 2nd in offensive rating behind only the Nuggets.  It's safe to say the Rockets are going to hang a big number on the Kings, who will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout in this one.

The Rockets are 11-7 OVER in all games this season averaging 233 combined points with their opponents.  The Kings and their opponents are averaging 237.7 combined points on the road this season.  The Kings and Rockets have combined for at least 230 points in 11 of their last 15 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Pistons/Bucks OVER 229.5

The Bucks are an OVER team as long as Giannis is healthy and on the court.  He is healthy right now, and Kevin Porter Jr. recently returned to the lineup to give them even more scoring punch.  Those two combined for 56 points in a 129-126 loss at Washington in their last game for 255 combined points.

The Detroit Pistons are fully healthy for the first time all season and a deadly offensive team when that's the case.  They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  The Pistons and their opponents have combined for at least 231 points in seven of their last nine games overall, so this total of 230.5 is pretty short for a game involving them right now.

What really stands out is the high-scoring head-to-head history between the Pistons and Bucks as neither team came stop one another.  Indeed, the OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings with 235 or more combined points in all 11 meetings.  That makes for an 11-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 230.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Portland State/South Dakota OVER 158.5

This is a very low total for a game involving South Dakota.  The Coyotes rank 34th in adjusted tempo and 327th in adjusted defense.  They have gone for 160 or more combined points seven of their eight games this season with the lone exception being against Air Force, a dead nuts under team that plays slow and has a terrible offense.

Portland State ranks 47th in adjusted tempo and 146th in adjusted defense.  So this game will be played with a lot of possessions as these teams are both Top 50 in tempo, and there won't be much defense being played at all, especially from South Dakota.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Pacers OVER 236.5

The Nuggets are a dead nuts OVER team right now without their best defender in Aaron Gordon.  The Nuggets rank 1st in the entire NBA in offensive rating, but their defense has taken a major hit.  The Nuggets are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 240 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  They have scored at least 121 points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.

The Pacers rank 11th in pace and are still trying to play faster even without Tyrese Haliburton.  They are coming off a 135-119 home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers for 254 combined points.  You can just imagine what this Denver offense is going to do to them tonight, and they will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Horizon League PLAY OF THE DAY on IU Indy/Detroit OVER 183

IU Indy ranks 1st in the country in adjusted tempo playing at a faster pace than anyone else by a mile.  The Jaguars and their opponents have combined for at least 181 points in seven of their nine games this season.  This total of 183 is actually pretty short for a game involving IU Indy, which ranks 360th in adjusted defense to boot.

Detroit will gladly run with them.  The Titans are 75th in adjusted tempo and 326th in adjusted defense.  So this game between two of the worst defensive teams in the country will see as many possessions as possible.  It adds up to a ton of scoring and easily topping this 183-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on IPFW/Oakland OVER 162

Oakland has gone through a transformation under legendary coach Greg Kampe to play a lost faster this season.  The Golden Grizzlies rank 100th in adjusted tempo, 75th in adjusted offense and 261st in adjusted defense.

The result has been the Golden Grizzlies being a dead nuts OVER team going 6-1 OVER in all games this season with 160 or more combined points in six of eight games.  They just went for 182 with Montana, 188 with a dead nuts under team in Eastern Michigan, and 170 with UCF in three of their last four games.

IPFW ranks 152nd in adjusted tempo, 188th in adjusted offense and just 319th in adjusted defense.  So both teams are way better on offense than they are on defense this season.  IPFW has gone for 161 or more combined points in six of its nine games this season.  This total of 162 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah/Cal OVER 153

Utah is a dead nuts OVER team going 7-1 OVER in its eight games this season.  The Utes and their opponents have combined for at least 156 points in six of their eight games.  They rank 133rd in adjusted tempo, 118th in adjusted offense and 153rd in adjusted defense.  They have some elite scorers on offense but don't play a lick of defense.

California also likes to play faster ranking 136th in adjusted tempo while being better on offense (64th) than defense (81st).  The Golden Bears are 3-1 OVER in their last four games, and they have finished with 152 or more combined points in four of their last five games.  They even beat UCLA 80-72 for 152 combined points against a Bruins team that plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country last time out.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* UConn/Kansas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on UNDER 144

This game will be played at a snail's pace with elite defense.  UConn ranks 313th in adjusted tempo and 8th in adjusted defense.  Kansas ranks 240th in adjusted tempo and 9th in adjusted defense.

Kansas will be without leading scorer Darryn Peterson (21.5 PPG) tonight and has had to rely even more on defense without him.  The Jayhawks are 5-1 UNDER in their last six games overall finishing with 144 or fewer combined points in five of those six, including 133 or fewer in four of them.

UConn is 3-0 UNDER in its last three games overall despite playing two great teams who both like to play fast.  They went for 135 combined points with Illinois and 138 with Arizona while also going for 121 with Bryant.  This total of 144 has been set too high tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Pelicans OVER 234

The Pelicans are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games overall and coming off 254 combined points with the Lakers.  New Orleans is 5-1 OVER in its last six home games finishing with 235 or more combined points in four of their last five home games.  The Pelicans rank 28th in defensive rating this season.

The Timberwolves have gone OVER the total in their last two games finishing with 237 combined points with San Antonio and 234 with Boston.  They have improved drastically on offense ranking 8th in offensive rating this season, largely due to bringing Mike Conley off the bench instead of starting him.  They play a lot faster without him running the offense.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the Pelicans and Timberwolves.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +5.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are quietly playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming to the Nuggets.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four road games during this stretch.  They are actually playing better without JA Morant.

Zach Edey and Jaren Jackson Jr. have been dominant inside for the Grizzlies.  And they will have a huge advantage with those two in the paint over the Spurs, who remain without Victor Wembenyama and Stephon Castle.  They are playing Luke Kornet and Kelly Olynyk big minutes because of it, and that is the worst big man combo in the NBA.

I also think the Spurs in a letdown spot of the schedule.  They miraculously pulled off the 139-136 win in Denver against the short-handed Nuggets to clinch their spot in the NBA Cup quarterfinals.  They promptly lost at Minnesota 125-112 their next time out, and they won't be motivated to beat the Grizzlies tonight, either.  They return home from a 4-game road trip and will be dealing with the distractions of missing Thanksgiving on the highway and trying to make up for it back home.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

15* Florida/Duke ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 157.5

Duke is a dead nuts UNDER team going 7-1 UNDER in its eight games this season finishing with 151 or fewer combined points in six of its eight games.  The Blue Devils rank 199th in adjusted tempo and 5th in adjusted defense.  They rank 361st in average length of defensive possession at 19.1 seconds making opponents work hard just to get a shot up.  They are allowing just 58.8 points per game this season on 34% shooting.

Florida lost all its good guards from the team that won the national title last year.  The Gators are a much worse offensive team as a result and having to rely more on defense this season.  Their top two scores are F/C's in Concon and Haugh.  They only have two guards barely averaging double-digits scoring in Fland (12.0 PPG, 38.2% shooting) and Klavzar (10.6 PPG, 40.4% shooting).  They are really lacking in the shooting department.

That helps explain why Florida is 5-1 UNDER in its last six games overall.  The Gators want to play fast, but they just can't do so as efficiently as they did last year with this poor guard play.  But the Gators haven't missed a beat defensively ranking 10th in the country in adjusted defense.  Duke will slow this game down to a crawl controlling the tempo at home.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on William & Mary +6.5

William & Mary is one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Tribe have opened 7-2 this season with their only losses coming on the road to St. John's and to Richmond (by 4).  They are 6-1 ATS in lined games and have played six of their first nine games on the highway against the 124th-ranked schedule.  Their up-tempo style is giving teams fits, and it will give Duquesne fits tonight, too.

Duquesne is 5-2 this season with an upset loss to Northwestern.  All five wins came against teams ranked outside the Top 200 and they needed OT to beat Queens.  They have played the 347th-ranked schedule in the country.  This is a bad team that will get exposed tonight.

Duquesne is allowing 80.3 points per game this season with defense being optional.  That's real poor when you consider how weak their schedule has been.  They can't be trusted to be a 6.5-point favorite here against a better William & Mary squad.  Bet William & Mary Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Cornell/George Mason OVER 153

Cornell is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Big Red rank 11th in adjusted tempo, 7th in average length of offensive possession, 101st in adjusted offense and just 252nd in adjusted defense.  They are 9th in effective FG percentage (61.1%) and 9th in 3-point percentage (41.7%) on offense.

The Big Red are 4-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 159 or more combined points in six of their seven games, including 173 or more in five of them.  This total of 153 is very short for a game involving Cornell.

I realize George Mason likes to play much closer, but the Patriots won't mind running with the Big Red.  The Patriots are 79th in adjusted offense, 80th in effective FG percentage and 39th in 3-point percentage.  They have a trio of very good guards in Mincy (19.6 PPG), Troutman (12.3 PPG) and Long (12.3 PPG) that will relish this opportunity to put up big numbers on this sad Cornell defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Suns/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234

The Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 13-6 OVER in all games this season, including 4-1 OVER in their last five games combining for 248 or more points in four of those five.  The only game that went under was a home-and-home situation against the Jazz in the 2nd meeting with familiarity leading to it.

The Lakers are a perfect 9-0 OVER at home this season finishing with 228 or more combined points in all nine home games, and 234 or more combined points in each of their last six home games.

The Suns profile as more of an OVER team in their current state.  They just got Grayson Allen back in the lineup and they have been without his scoring for seven games.  Allen takes a lot of pressure off Devin Booker to provide the offense.  Mark Williams is healthy and great on the offensive end as well.

The Suns are 2-0 OVER in their last two games combining for 242 points with the Thunder and 242 points with the Nuggets.  It will be more of the same tonight in a shootout with the Lakers.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Mavs/Nuggets OVER 233

The Denver Nuggets are a dead nuts OVER team without their best defender in Aaron Gordon.  They are all offense and no defense right now.  They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall going for 240 or more combined points in all four games.

Nikola Jokic has been dominant again this season leading the Nuggets to ranking 1st place in offensive rating, scoring 123.9 points per 100 possessions.  The Nuggets have now scored 122 or more points in nine of their last 10 and 12 of their last 14 games overall.  They are a wagon on offense this season.

The Mavericks have turned into more of an OVER team this season ranking 6th in pace as Jason Kidd has embraced playing with more pace.  The injury report also makes the Mavs more of an OVER team right now playing without two big men in Lively II and Gafford, which makes them play more small ball.  Anthony Davis is back healthy and will form a great 1-2 punch with Cooper Flagg on the offensive end when he's in the lineup.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Bulls/Magic OVER 239

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace this season playing as fast as possible.  In their last two meetings with the Magic last season they combined for 252 and 248 points.

The Magic have transformed into a dead nuts OVER team without Paulo Banchero.  They have to play more small ball and they play a lot faster while also sharing the ball more.  The Magic are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 230 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  They went for 247 combined points with Philadelphia, 267 with Boston and 254 with New York in three of their last four games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -6

The Miami Heat are 13-7 SU & 12-8 ATS this season.  They are as healthy as they have been all year right now and primed for a big effort tonight hosting the Los Angeles Clippers, who are 5-15 SU & 5-15 ATS.  The Clippers have been the most disappointing team in the NBA, and they are not healthy at all right now.

The Heat are without Beal, Jones Jr. and Bogdanovic.  They are coming off consecutive upset home losses to two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Mavericks and Grizzlies, who were both short-handed when they beat them as well.  They have now lost four straight with the other two being blowout road losses to the Lakers by 17 and Cavs by 15.  Another blowout road loss will be their fate tonight.  Bet the Heat Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockets/Jazz OVER 232

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 5th in pace and 27th in defensive rating. The Jazz are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 247 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  

The Jazz are 8-2 OVER in their 10 home games scoring 128.4 points per game and allowing 127.6 points per game, combining to average 256 points per game.  This total of 232 is very short for a Utah home game.

That's especially the case when you consider the Rockets will be getting back leading scorer Kevin Durant (24.6 PPG) from a 2-game absence due to a family matter today.  The Rockets rank 2nd in the NBA in offensive rating scoring 122 points per 100 possessions.  The Rockets are without Finney-Smith, Eason and could be without Adams who is questionable, and those are three of their best defenders.  It means more playing time for scorers in Sheppard and Holiday.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Rockets and Jazz finishing with 231 or more combined points in seven of those eight meetings, including 239 or more in six of them.  This is also a very low total for this matchup.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -3.5

This is a terrible spot for the Detroit Pistons.  They had their 13-game winning streak snapped with a 3-point loss at Boston.  Then last night they had their hopes of winning the NBA Cup come to a painful end with a 3-point home loss to the Orlando Magic.  

I don't expect the Pistons to show up at all tonight, and there's a chance they rest some guys playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and in their 5th different city in 8 days.  Cade Cunningham played 40 minutes last night and is a real candidate to sit out.  Four of five starters played at least 30 minutes.

The Heat are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.  They are also as healthy as they have been all season with Tyler Herro (26.5 PPG) returning for the last two games and forming chemistry with his new teammates in this new up-tempo scheme that fits him well.  The Heat are fully healthy now with Powell and Wiggins back and only Jacquez listed as questionable.  He has played in all 19 games this season despite popping up on the injury report multiple times so he is likely to go.

Miami playing at the fastest-pace in the entire NBA will certainly test these tired Detroit legs.  This is one of my favorite spots of the entire season so far, and I fully expect the Heat to win in a blowout.  Bet the Heat Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee/Akron OVER 168

Akron profiles as a dead nuts OVER team.  The Zips rank 54th in the country in adjusted tempo and 25th in average length of offensive possession at 14.9 seconds.  They have an elite offense ranking 26th in adjusted offense but a terrible defense at 137th.

Milwaukee also likes to play fast ranking 103rd in adjusted tempo and 74th in average length of offensive possession at 16 seconds.  The Panthers are also much better offensively (165th) than they are defensively (279th).  This game has shootout written all over it tonight.

Akron is 4-2 OVER in all games this season while scoring 94.9 points per game.  The Zips are coming off a 97-94 loss to Yale in regulation and 191 combined points.  They have topped this total of 168 with their opponents in four of six games against D-1 competition.

Milwaukee is 4-2 OVER in all games this season.  They went for 171 combined points with Indiana, 176 with Hampton, 164 with Little Rock and 195 with Dominican.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Jazz OVER 242

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 5th in pace and 27th in defensive rating.  The Kings also profile as an OVER team ranking 9th in pace and 24th in defensive rating.  This figures to be one of the biggest shootouts of the season tonight especially with both teams playing relaxed basketball after already being eliminated from advancing in the NBA Cup.

The Jazz are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 251 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  The Jazz are 7-2 OVER in their nine home games scoring 128.4 points per game and allowing 128.6 points per game, combining to average 257 points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons -3

I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They finally had their 13-game winning streak come to an end with a 117-114 loss in Boston.  But it will take zero effort for them to refocus here considering this is a must-win for them if they want to advance in the NBA Cup.

It's not a must-win game for Orlando, although they'd rather win this game than rely on point differential to advance.  But the Magic are in great position from a point differential perspective at +61 during their 3-0 start.  So they can still lose this game and advance on point differential as as none of the contenders are within 28 points of them.  In the back of their minds they know they are advancing either way.

The Pistons are 7-1 at home this season while the Magic are just 4-5 on the road.  The Pistons beat the Magic 135-116 in their last home meeting on October 29th earlier this season.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5

This is a must-win game for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Raptors have clinched Group A in the NBA Cup with a 4-0 record.  The Cavaliers' only chance to advance is on point differential, so they not only need to win but have massive incentive to win by margin.  They have a +33 point differential trailing Miami (+49), which is 3-1 and locked into that point differential.  At the very least they need to win this game by 16-plus points to catch Miami.

The Atlanta Hawks have already been eliminated from advancing with a 1-2 record.  I question their motivation as a result.  They are coming off a 132-113 road loss to Washington as 11-point favorites in their last NBA Cup game to get eliminated.  They weren't impressive the game prior either with a 3-point win over the Hornets as 8-point home favorites.  I'll gladly back the more motivated team looking for as big of a blowout as possible.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Hawks OVER 236.5

This is a must-win game for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Raptors have clinched Group A in the NBA Cup with a 4-0 record.  The Cavaliers' only chance to advance is on point differential, so they not only need to win but have massive incentive to win by margin.  They have a +33 point differential trailing Miami (+49), which is 3-1 and locked into that point differential.  At the very least they need to win this game by 16-plus points to catch Miami.

The Atlanta Hawks have already been eliminated from advancing with a 1-2 record.  I question their motivation as a result.  They are coming off a 132-113 road loss to Washington as 11-point favorites in their last NBA Cup game to get eliminated.  I question how much they'll be motivated to play defense tonight knowing they are already eliminated.  Meanwhile, the Cavs should be playing as fast as possible to win by as much as possible.  That will benefit the OVER tonight.  

The Hawks are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall.  The Cavs rank 7th in pace while the Hawks rank 10th, so these are two Top 10 teams in pace.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on New York Knicks -8.5

The New York Knicks (2-1) are max motivated tonight.  They need to win to capture Group C, otherwise they will be eliminated.  They have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Miami Heat (3-1).

The Milwaukee Bucks (2-1) lose out on the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Heat so their only chance of advancing is on point differential.  But they know they are essentially eliminated unless they win this game by 50, which isn't happening.  They are only +13 in point differential and trailing everyone above them by anywhere from 11 to 48 points.  They also need both Cleveland and Detroit to lose tonight, and both are favored.

Knowing their fate is pretty much already sealed, I don't expect the Bucks to bring back Giannis tonight.  He was questionable in their last NBA Cup game and didn't play, losing at Miami to lose out on the tiebreaker with the Heat now.  That was basically their 'last stand' in this tournament, and they won't be all that motivated knowing they won it all last year.

The Knicks are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Bucks.  Bet the Knicks Friday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on SMU/Mississippi State OVER 162.5

SMU Is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Mustangs rank 41st in the country in adjusted tempo and 14th in average length of offensive possession at 14.6 seconds.  They are loaded with offensive talent scoring at least 87 points in six of their seven games this season, and 100 or more three times already.

Mississippi State also likes to play fast ranking in the top 1/3 in the country at 118th in adjusted tempo and 78th in average length of offensive possession at 16 seconds.  In their two games against the two best teams they have played like SMU, they lost 96-80 to Iowa State for 176 combined points and lost 98-77 to Kansas State for 175 combined points.  

SMU profiles similarly to K-State with an elite offense and suspect defense.  Miss State really has a suspect defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Texas A&M/FSU OVER 171.5

Texas A&M is a dead nuts OVER team playing 'Bucky Ball' under first-year head coach Bucky McMillan.  The Aggies rank 33rd in the country adjusted tempo and 13th in average length of offensive possession at 14.6 seconds.  The Aggies are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 167 points with Montana, 177 with Manhattan and 204 with Mississippi Valley State.

Florida State also profiles as an OVER team with how fast they play.  The Seminoles rank 7th in the country adjusted tempo and 3rd in average length of offensive possession at 13.8 seconds.  There will be a ton of possessions in this game and more opportunities for points.  This total of 171.5 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Gonzaga/Michigan TNT ANNIHILATOR on Gonzaga -2

Gonzaga looks like the most complete team in the country.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their seven games this season despite playing the 64th-ranked schedule.  They beat Oklahoma by 15, Creighton by 27, ASU by 12, Alabama by 10 and Maryland by 39 in their five toughest games.  Nobody has even pushed them.

Michigan will push them, but this will also be by far the toughest test of the season for the Wolverines.  Michigan needed OT to beat Wake Forest as 15-point favorites on a neutral and only beat a bad TCU team by 4 as 7.5-point road favorites.

Gonzaga ranks 4th in adjusted offense and 4th in adjusted defense in the entire country.  The Bulldogs have a massive home-court advantage with this game being played in Las Vegas as their fans always travel well to Vegas every year for the WCC Tournament, and they've shown out in a big way for this Players Era Festival as well.  Bet Gonzaga Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Grizzlies/Pelicans OVER 234

The Pelicans rank 25th in defensive rating this season.  They are a very poor defensive team, but they are more of an OVER team when Zion Williamson (22.4 PPG) is healthy like he is tonight.  Throw in Derik Queen (12.4 PPG) and Trey Murphy (20.2 PPG), and the Pelicans have some offensive punch.

They are coming off a 143-130 win over the Bulls for 273 combined points.  They have been eliminated from NBA Cup contention after a 0-3 start where they have allowed an average of 121 points per game.  They won't be playing with much defensive intensity tonight as a result.

The Grizzlies are 1-1 in Group Play with an outside shot of advancing.  They have a +9 point differential, and if they win out they would have a chance of advancing on point differential, which is their only hope now that the Lakers clinched 1st place in Group B.  They have motivation to run the score up, so they will keep the foot on the gas for four quarters to improve their point differential.

The Grizzlies rank 11th in pace and 18th in defensive rating.  They are coming off a 125-115 loss to the Nuggets for 240 combined points.  This total of 234 is pretty short for a game involving the Grizzlies and Pelicans, especially when you look at their head-to-head history.  Indeed, the OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings finishing with 250, 263 and 256 combined points in the three overs.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Raptors OVER 234.5

The Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 9th in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  They have gotten healthier here of late to give their offense some punch with the healthy returns of Mathurin (24.3 PPG) and McConnell.  Having McConnell back is big because they run a lot faster with him in the lineup.

The Pacers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall finishing with 239 or more combined points four times.  One of those was against these Pistons in a 127-112 loss for 239 combined points.  Detroit didn't even have Cade Cunningham in this game and still scored 127 points on this pathetic Indiana defense.

The Raptors also profile as an OVER team ranking 6th in offensive rating and 13th in pace.  What I really like about this OVER is the fact that the Pacers have already clinched 1st place in Group A in the NBA Cup and will be advancing no matter what.  I think they will relax their defensive intensity as a result, and this game will be played at max pace with little defense as a result.  

This will be the 2nd meeting of the season.  The Raptors won 129-111 for 240 combined points on November 15th.  Keep in mind the Pacers didn't have Mathurin for that game and were severely short-handed.  The Raptors only shot 7-of-30 (23%) from 3-point range and still scored 129 points.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Bucks/Heat NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 236.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in pace this season.  They should only be an even more potent offensive team moving forward with Tyler Herro back healthy.  Norman Powell is also expected to play tonight, so they will be potent tonight in particular.

The Heat are also motivated to win by margin so they won't be taking their foot off the gas for four quarters.  Point differential is a tiebreaker in the NBA Cup, so they want to win by as many points as possible as we've seen that play out with a +46 point differential in their 2-1 start this season.

The Bucks won't give up if they are down big because of that point differential tiebreak and a 2-0 start in the NBA Cup.  There's also a good chance they get a healthy Giannis for this one as he has been upgraded to questionable, and players that get upgraded to questionable usually play.  This total will skyrocket up if he's ruled in, and I like it even if he's not.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Knicks/Hornets OVER 238

The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (21.2 PPG, 9.3 APG) is healthy and in the lineup.  The Hornets are 7-3 OVER in games in which Ball has played finishing with 245 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.

The Hornets play faster and much more efficiently with Ball in the lineup.  And now Brandon Miller (16.7 PPG) is back healthy, so this will be one of the few games they have both Miller and Ball healthy at the same time this season.  Add in rookie Knueppel (19.4 PPG) and F Bridges (22.0 PPG), and the Hornets have a potent offense.  They are poor defensively either way.

The Knicks sit at 1-1 in the NBA Cup with a -2 point differential.  They need to improve that point differential while winning this game, so they will be keeping the foot on the gas for four quarters.  They know this poor Charlotte defense is the perfect time for them to score as many points as possible, and they will be looking to take advantage.

The Knicks rank 3rd in offensive rating this season with an elite offense.  They are also without their best defender in OG Anunoby.  They profile as a dead nuts OVER team and have gone 10-6 OVER in all games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Virginia Tech -5

Virginia Tech is one of the most improved and thus most underrated teams in the country.  The Hokies are 5-0 this season led by four players who are all scoring at least 12.6 points per game in Hansberry (16.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG), Avdalas (15.2 PPG, 5.8 APG), Lawal (14.8 PPG, 12.0 RPG, 2.0 BPG) and Bedford (12.6 PPG).

The Hokies have impressive wins over Providence in OT on a neutral as 2-point dogs and Saint Joe's by 35 as 12.5-point home favorites.  They have had the last week off to rest and prepare to beat Colorado State in this Battle 4 Atlantis Opener.

Colorado State is a rebuilding team with four new starters under first-year head coach Ali Farokhmanesh.  The Rams have played one of the easiest schedules in the country at 343rd out of 366 teams.  To not be 5-0 is a bad sign for this team.

The two poor performances that really stand out are a 14-point win as 18.5-point home favorites against Cal Poly and a outright loss to Denver as 19-point home favorites.  That's a Denver team that lost by 30 to Arizona and is 2-4 on the season.  I don't think the Rams are ready to hang with a team the caliber of the Hokies here.  Bet Virginia Tech Wednesday.

20* Pistons/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Detroit -2.5

The Detroit Pistons are 13-0 in their last 13 games overall.  What has been impressive is that they have dealt with several injuries during this streak.  But now they are as healthy as they have been all season with Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey and Tobias Harris all back in the lineup now.  They may legitimately be the best team in the East.

They are certainly better than the Boston Celtics, and they will be the more motivated team tonight.  They are not only motivated to extend this winning streak to 14 games, but more importantly to win Group B in the NBA Cup.  A win would put them at 3-0 alongside the Orlando Magic, who have a +61 point differential compared to their +27.  They also want to assure that their point differential is as good as possible because if they end up losing to the Magic in their next game, they would still advance based on point differential.

The Celtics have basically been eliminated from advancing in the NBA Cup due to their 1-2 start.  They can get to 2-2, but that wouldn't be good enough to advance, especially since they have a -20 point differential right now.  They know it and will be lacking motivation as a result.  They will also be without their best defender in C Neemias Queta (9.3 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.4 BPG), so the Pistons should get whatever they want at the rim.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

20* Magic/76ers NBC No-Brainer on OVER 228

The Magic have turned into a dead nuts OVER team since losing Paulo Banchero to injury.  The ball no longer sticks in his hands in isolation, and the Magic play with a lot more movement and a lot more ball sharing which sets up better looks.  They are also playing a lot faster without him.

The Magic are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall.  They have gone for 230 or more combined points in all five games, so this total of 228 is pretty short for a game involving the Magic right now.  That includes 267 combined points with the Celtics and 254 with the Knicks in their last two games coming in.

The Philadelphia 76ers are led by Tyrese Maxey who is having a MVP-caliber season.  He had 54 points in a 123-114 win at Milwaukee, and came back with 27 points in a 127-117 loss to the Heat the next night.  They are going to have to go more small ball tonight without Joel Embiid and will have no problem running with the Magic.

This is a rematch from a 136-124 win by Philadelphia for 260 combined points on October 27th in their first meeting this season.  The Magic only shot 8-of-35 (32%) from 3-point range in that game while the 76ers had pretty much a normal night of shooting.  Oddsmakers have failed to adjust up enough for the change in style for the Magic without Banchero.  Point differential is a tiebreaker in the NBA Cup so whoever is leading late won't take their foot off the gas.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* K-State/Indiana FS1 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 163

Kansas State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats are 6-0 OVER in their six games this season finishing with 167 or more combined points in each of their last five games, and none of their six games have gone to OT.  This total of 163 is very low for a game involving Kansas State.

The Wildcats rank 26th in adjusted tempo, 29th in average length of offensive possession, 40th in adjusted offense and 90th in adjusted defense.  They are loaded with scorers and rank 12th in effective FG percentage (61%) and 8th in 3-point percentage (43.3%).

Indiana is an elite offensive team ranking 31st in adjusted offense while scoring at least 98 points in three of its five games this season.  You can bet the Hoosiers will come close to hanging 100 on this piss-pour Kansas State defense.  The Hoosiers rank 23rd in effective FG percentage (58.7%) and 27th in 3-point percentage (39.4%).  These are two elite shooting teams.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on SEMO/Cal Poly OVER 167.5

Cal Poly is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Mustangs rank 2nd in the entire country in adjusted tempo and 6th in average length of offensive possession.  They are 67th in 3-point percentage (37.2%) and chuck up a ton of them while trying to get their opponents to run with them.

Southeast Missouri State will happily oblige as the Redhawks rank 36th in adjusted tempo and 93rd in average length of offensive possession.  SEMO ranks 365th in effective FG percentage (64.1%) defense and is one of the worst defensive teams in the country.

SEMO went for 169 combined points in a 99-70 loss to Iowa, which plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country.  They went for 173 combined points with Missouri as well.  The Redhawks are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall.

Cal Poly is 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall.  The Mustangs went for 172 combined points with Colorado State, 172 with Montana, 177 with Utah and 180 with Northern Arizona.  This total of 167.5 is actually pretty short for a game involving Cal Poly.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Cup TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Wizards OVER 236

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They play fast and they don't stop anyone, which leads to a lot of high-scoring games.

The Wizards and their opponents have combined for at least 235 points in seven of their last nine games overall, so this total of 236 is pretty short for a game involving Washington.  Atlanta is 5-2 OVER in its last seven games overall finishing with 232 or more combined points in five of those seven games, so it's also pretty short for a game involving the Hawks.

The Hawks have motivation to keep trying to run up the score late as point differential is a tiebreaker.  I don't think they'll take their foot off the gas, and the Wizards will gladly run with them.  The OVER is 6-3 in the last nine meetings finishing with 236 or more combined points in eight of those nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Denver +34

Arizona is in a massive letdown spot.  The Wildcats are coming off consecutive huge wins over UCLA by 4 and UConn by 4.  It's just human nature for them to not be nearly as motivated to face Denver when they return home from the East Coast tonight.

Denver has been undervalued this season going 4-1 ATS.  The performances on the road have been very impressive.  The Pioneers only lost by 11 at Seattle as 12.5-point dogs and by 14 at Washington as 27.5-point dogs.  

They also pulled off two outright upsets beating Montana State by 2 as 7.5-point dogs and Colorado State by 2 as 19-point dogs.  They are clearly much better than anyone realizes and should not be catching 34 points here in this Arizona letdown spot.  Bet Denver Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Bulls/Pelicans OVER 244

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 10-6 OVER in all games this season while ranking 2nd in pace.  They are going to play even faster now that Coby White is healthy and in the lineup.  He and Josh Giddey will keep these Bulls running as fast as possible as long as they are on the court.

The Pelicans rank 27th in defensive rating this season.  They are a very poor defensive team, but they are more of an OVER team when Zion Williamson (21.4 PPG) is healthy like he is tonight.  Throw in Derik Queen (12.6 PPG) and Trey Murphy (20.2 PPG), and the Pelicans have some offensive punch.  They will get their points against the Bulls tonight and gladly run with them.

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between the Bulls and Pelicans.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Akron -1.5

Akron is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Zips are 5-1 SU & 5-0 ATS with their only loss coming by 18 at Purdue as 18.5-point dogs.  Purdue is arguably the best team in the country.

The spot really favors the Zips.  They crushed Iona by 21 on Friday and Evansville by 38 on Sunday in the first two rounds of the Paradise Jam in the Virgin Island.  They were able to rest their starters late and will still be very fresh for this game against Yale.

Yale struggled against two bad teams in its first two games.  The Bulldogs only beat Green Bay by 6 as 17-point favorites on Friday and Charleston by 11 on Sunday.  They had to play their starters the full minutes yesterday and won't be nearly as fresh as Akron will be for this one.  

They Bulldogs also lost outright as 8.5-point home favorites to Rhode Island in their game prior to this tournament and Stony Brook by 7 as 20-point favorites the game prior.  It's clear to me the Zips are the better team in the better spot today.  Bet Akron Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Pacers OVER 235.5

The Pistons are 5-1 OVER in their last six games while scoring at least 120 points in five of those six games.  They rank 8th in the NBA on offensive rating and get even more reinforcements now with PG Jaden Ivey and SG Caris LeVert returning to the lineup tonight.

The Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 9th in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  They have gotten healthier here of late to give their offense some punch with the healthy returns of Mathurin (26.4 PPG) and McConnell.  Having McConnell back is big because they run a lot faster with him in the lineup.

The Pacers are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall finishing with 239 or more combined points three times.  One of those was against these Pistons in a 127-112 loss for 239 combined points.  Detroit didn't even have Cade Cunningham in this game and still scored 127 points.

What really stood out as well was the Pistons shot 9-of-35 (26%) from 3-point range while the Pacers shot just 9-of-31 (29%) from 3-point range in that first meeting.  So they got to 239 combined points despite the injuries and poor shooting, so there's actually a ton of room for more points here in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Jazz OVER 244

The Jazz are 5-0 OVER in their last five games combining for 266 points with the Thunder, 266 with the Lakers, 254 with the Bulls at the end of regulation, 254 with the Hawks and 270 with the Pacers.  The Jazz rank 6th in pace and 27th in defensive rating, and as long as Markkanen is healthy and playing the Jazz are a pretty solid offensive team as well.

What has really stood out is just how high-scoring these Utah games have been when they are at home in Salt Lake City and dictating the pace.  Opposing teams tend to get more tired in the altitude and it affects them defensively more than anything.  The Jazz are 7-1 OVER in all home games this season finishing with 233 or more combined points in all eight games, and and 254 or more in seven of those eight games.

The Lakers are fully healthy now with LeBron and Vincent back to go along with Reaves and Doncic.  They beat the Jazz 140-126 at home in their last game.  What stood out is neither team shot well from 3-point range and they still combined for 266 points.  The Jazz shot 13-of-45 (29%) while the Lakers shot 11-of-32 (34%) from deep.

The Lakers are 10-5 OVER in their 15 games this season.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last six meetings between the Jazz and Lakers finishing with 242 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings.  This total of 244 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Blazers/Thunder OVER 234.5

The Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in pace this season and have gone 12-4 OVER in their 16 games.  They are coming off a 127-123 win over the Warriors in the NBA Cup despite not having Sharpe (22.6 PPG) or Holiday (16.7 PPG, 8.3 APG) in the lineup.

The Thunder went for 256 combined points with the Jazz last time out and 235 with the Pelicans three games ago.  They won't mind running with the Blazers, and they want to make a statement here offensively after suffering their only loss of the season to the Blazers.

They lost 121-119 in Portland for 240 combined points on November 5th.  They shot just 42% from the field and still scored 119 points.  The Blazers only shot 41% from the field and still scored 121.  So there's even some room for improvement for both teams in the shooting department in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Celtics -4.5

I love the spot for the Boston Celtics tonight.  They are coming off an upset loss to the Nets in a home-and-home situation after beating the Nets by 14 on the road in the game prior.  They will come back motivated here to beat the Orlando Magic tonight.

The Celtics have a big rest advantage over the Magic.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Magic will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days after a huge 133-121 win over the Knicks last night.

Jalen Suggs played 32 minutes and scored 26 points last night and will likely sit this 2nd of a back-to-back for injury management.  The Magic are already without leading scorer Paulo Banchero (21.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG).  Those two combined for 48 points in a 111-107 home loss to the Celtics in their last meeting on November 9th.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Celtics UNDER 221

The Celtics are a dead nuts UNDER team ranking dead last (30th) in pace this season.  The Magic are in no hurry either ranking 20th in pace.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and this will already be the 3rd meeting between the Magic and Celtics this season.  Nine of the last 10 meetings between these teams have seen 218 or fewer combined points.

Jalen Suggs played 32 minutes and scored 26 points last night and will likely sit this 2nd of a back-to-back for injury management.  The Magic are already without leading scorer Paulo Banchero (21.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG).  Those two combined for 48 points in a 111-107 home loss to the Celtics in their last meeting on November 9th.

So the Magic won't have two of their best scorers and their floor general in Suggs, so points will be very hard to come by.  The Celtics already struggle on the offensive end as well, relying more on defense this season than ever to be competitive.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Weber State -3

Weber State has been impressive against a brutal schedule this season.  After opening with a 130-38 win over West Coast Baptist, the Wildcats played three straight brutal road games and nearly pulled off the upset in all three.

It started with a 92-89 (OT) road loss as 15.5-point dogs at Utah.  The Wildcats followed that up with a 83-73 road loss at Utah State as 22-point dogs.  Then they only lost 79-70 at UC-Irvine as 11-point dogs.

The Wildcats were happy to be back home for a 91-85 win over Campbell as 1-point favorites in which they led by 22 with 10 minutes to go.  Now they have had the last two days off and will relish this opportunity to get another home win over UT-Arlington.

This is a bad UT-Arlington team picked to finish near the bottom of the WAC.  The Mavericks went 13-18 last season and returned just one starter from that team in Raysean Seamster, the only current player averaging in double figures scoring for them.

UT-Arlington is coming off a 71-67 loss to Campbell yesterday to give them a common opponent with Weber State.  The Mavericks will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 5 days, while the Wildcats have had the last two days off.  This rest advantage is just an added bonus as the Wildcats are the much superior team anyway.  Bet Weber State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee-Martin -8

UT-Martin has been impressive thus far.  They opened with a 86-81 upset win at UNLV as 17.5-point dogs, came back with a 97-42 win over Kentucky Christian, and backed it up with a 78-67 road win at Bradley as 15.5-point dogs.  They gave Florida State all they wanted in a 87-73 road loss as 20-point dogs last time out.

Now the Skyhawks take a big step down in class here against a Prairie View A&M team they should blow out.  They are picked to finish near the bottom of the SWAC alongside two of the worst teams in the country in Arkansas Pine Bluff and Mississippi Valley State.

It's easy to see why as the Panthers lost all five starters from last season after Braelon Bush (13.4 PPG) decided to transfer to Chicago State late in the process.  This is a team that went 5-27 last year and is well on its way to another disastrous season.

Prairie View A&M lost 105-62 as 20-point dogs at Wichita State, by 27 at Oklahoma State and by 18 at Missouri.  It won't get much easier against this underrated Tennessee-Martin squad today, and another double-digit loss is in store for the Panthers.  Bet UT-Martin Saturday.