15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Cal/Stanford OVER 148

Stanford beat rival Cal 89-81 on December 7th in their first meeting this season.  That game saw 170 combined points, so we have 22 points to work with in the rematch with this total of just 148.  Cal only shot 42.3% from the floor so it has some room for positive shooting regression in the rematch.

Both teams are much better offensively than they are on defense.  Cal ranks 81st in adjusted offense but just 210th in adjusted defense.  Cal has allowed at least 75 points in six of its last seven games overall.

Stanford ranks 76th in adjusted offense but just 131st in adjusted defense.  The Cardinal have allowed at least 73 points in four of their last five games, including 106 to Duke last time out.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* BYU/Arizona ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 152.5

The Arizona Wildcats profile as an OVER team due to ranking 43rd in adjusted tempo and 23rd in adjusted offense.  They will control the tempo playing at home against BYU, which ranks 201st in adjusted tempo.  But the Cougars are elite on offense ranking 13th in adjusted offense and 61st in adjusted defense as they are a bit undersized.

Arizona beat BYU 85-74 for 159 combined points on February 4th in heir first meeting this season.  The Wildcats shot 49.2% overall and 38.1% from 3-point range with a pretty average offensive output.  BYU has a lot of room for positive regression in the rematch after shooting 41.8% overall, 29.4% from 3-point range and 57.1% from the FT line.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Jazz OVER 228.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team especially when they are as healthy as they are right now.  The Jazz are 7-0 OVER in their last seven games overall with 236 or more combined points in all seven games.  They rank 10th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.

The Jazz are a pretty efficient offensive team when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They have scored at least 110 points in eight of their last nine games and 14 of their last 17 games overall.  Markkanen (19.2 PPG), Collins (18.4 PPG), Clarkson (17.1 PPG) and George (16.5 PPG) are all healthy right now.

This has been a high-scoring series.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Utah and Houston with 245 or more combined points in four of those five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Lakers/Nuggets ABC No-Brainer on OVER 240.5

The Denver Nuggets are fully healthy and humming offensively.  They have scored at least 122 points in six of their last seven games.  They have gone for 244 or more combined points with their opponents in each of their last three games, and that was against Portland (twice) and a Charlotte team that was without La'Melo Ball.

Now the Nuggets will hang a big number on a Los Angeles Lakers team that is one of the worst defensive teams in the league with the addition of Luka Doncic and the subtraction of Anthony Davis.  The Lakers have proven to be an OVER team since losing Davis.

The OVER is 7-3 in Lakers last 10 games overall.  They have been fine offensively scoring at least 119 points in seven of their last nine games overall.  They will continue to form better chemistry with Doncic with each passing game, especially as he works his way into shape.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Summit League Total DOMINATOR on St. Thomas/Oral Roberts OVER 157

St. Thomas is scoring 84.6 points per game on 50.1% shooting this season.  The Tommies rank 49th in adjusted offense, 2nd in effective FG percentage and 7th in 3-point percentage.  But they rank just 273rd in adjusted defense, which makes them profile as an OVER team.  The Tommies are 17-7 OVER in all games this season and 12-4 OVER in all road/neutral games.

Oral Roberts is 12-9 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 81.0 points per game on 49.4% shooting in their eight home games.  The Golden Eagles are also a dreadful defensive team, ranking 355th in the country in adjusted defense.  They are allowing 83.9 points per game and 47.9% shooting in conference play.

St. Thomas beat Oral Roberts 86-71 for 157 combined points on January 29th in their first meeting this season.  That game saw 87 combined points at halftime before slowing down a ton down the stretch due to the blowout as fouls weren't in play late.  These teams combined for only 21 FT attempts for the game.  There's a good chance fouls will be in play late in this one with the Tommies listed as 8.5-point road favorites, which would be in that foul zone.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* CBB TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Illinois/Duke OVER 152.5

The Illinois Fighting Illini are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 16th in adjusted tempo and 16th in adjusted offense.  The Ducks are 11-5-1 OVER in their last 17 games with 154 or more combined points in 15 of those 17 games.  This total of 152.5 is very low for a game involving Illinois right now.

The Fighting Illini have allowed at least 74 points in 10 consecutive games.  Now they must face a Duke team that ranks 2nd in the country in adjusted offense and 3rd in effective FG percentage.  The OVER is 5-2 in Duke's last seven games overall.  They have scored at least 80 points in 10 of their last 15 games overall and will no doubt top 80 in this one.

I like the fact that this is a non-conference game and these teams are not familiar with one another, and unfamiliarity favors offense and high scoring games.  I also like the fact that both teams are missing key big men which will force them to play more small ball and hurt them defensively.

Illinois is without F Morez Johnson Jr. (7.2 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.1 BPG) while Duke is without F Maliq Brown (2.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.4 SPG).  Those are two of the best defenders on their respective teams.  This game will also be played in Madison Square Garden so both offenses will be looking to put on a show.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on South Dakota/Omaha OVER 170.5

The South Dakota Coyotes are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 19-5 OVER in all games this season.  The Coyotes rank 2nd in adjusted tempo, 105th in adjusted offense and 346th in adjusted defense.

The Omaha Mavericks are also a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 168th in adjusted tempo, 108th in adjusted offense and 288th in adjusted defense.  The Mavericks are scoring 83.9 points per game in conference play while the Coyotes are scoring 84.5 points per game.

South Dakota beat Omaha 91-87 for 178 combined points in their first meeting this season on January 29th.  Neither team lit it up from 3 or from the FT line.  Omaha shot 7-of-21 (33.3%) from 3 and 14-of-20 (70%) from the FT line.  South Dakota shot 8-of-23 (34.8%) from 3 and 19-of-31 (61.3%) from the FT line.  If anything they both have room for positive shooting regression in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Nets/76ers UNDER 213

The Brooklyn Nets are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They are 11-1 UNDER in their last 12 games overall with 208 or fewer combined points in 11 of those 12 games.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace, 1st in defensive rating and dead last (30th) in offensive rating in their last 12 games.

Now the Nets are even more of an UNDER team after losing PG De'Angelo Russell to injury in their last game.  He kept the Nets competitive averaging 14.5 points and 5.8 assists per game since getting traded from the Lakers.  Now the Nets will have even fewer answers offensively without him.

The 76ers aren't exactly lighting it up offensively despite getting Embiid and George back in the lineup for a few games recently.  They have scored 104 or fewer points in each of their last three games.

That includes their 100-96 loss to the Nets that saw just 196 combined points in their final game prior to the All-Star Break.  The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 111 or fewer combined points in three of those four.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Florida/LSU OVER 152.5

The Florida Gators have gone more small ball without F Alex Condon (10.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.4 BPG).  They haven't missed a beat offensively scoring at least 81 points in six consecutive games coming into this one.  The Gators rank 77th in adjusted tempo and 4th in adjusted offense this season.

The LSU Tigers also like to push the tempo, ranking 116th in adjusted tempo this season.  They have been impressive offensively here down the stretch scoring at least 80 points in six of their last eight games overall.  I think Florida for sure tops 80 in this one, and LSU will at least get close to that number as we easily cash this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* WCC Total DOMINATOR on Oregon State/San Diego OVER 146

Oregon State is a dead nuts OVER team and oddsmakers and the betting public continue to fail to realize it consistently setting their totals too low.  The OVER is 15-2 in Oregon State's last 17 games overall.  In those 17 games, their totals have been set at 146.5 or lower 15 times.

San Diego is 8-4 OVER in its last 12 games overall with 147 or more combined points in eight of those 12 games, and 145 or more in nine of them.  The Toreros rank 33rd in adjusted tempo and will control the tempo playing at home.  The problem is they rank 237th in adjusted defense and have allowed at least 81 points in 10 of their last 14 games, and 77 or more in 12 of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on George Mason +10.5

The George Mason Patriots are 21-5 this season and have been flying under the radar this season.  They continue to lack the respect they deserve here as double-digit underdogs to the VCU Rams.  They are 12-1 in conference play this season with their lone loss coming by 3 points.

It's time to 'sell high' on VCU after going 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They only have two days to get ready for the Patriots after beating UMass on Wednesday.  Meanwhile, the Patriots have been off since last Saturday getting a full week to rest and prepare to beat VCU.  That's a huge advantage that isn't being factored into this line enough.  Bet George Mason Saturday.

15* ACC Total DOMINATOR on Virginia/UNC OVER 142.5

The Virginia Cavaliers have had an offensive resurgence here down the stretch.  They have gone 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall while scoring at least 73 points in six of their last eight games.

Now the Cavaliers face off against a dead nuts OVER team in North Carolina.  The Tar Heels rank 25th in adjusted tempo, 37th in adjusted offense and 64th in adjusted defense.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games combining for 150 points with Clemson, 170 with Syracuse and 170 with NC State.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MVC Total DOMINATOR on Evansville/Illinois Chicago OVER 144

The Evansville Purple Aces have had an offensive resurgence here down the stretch.  They have gone 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall largely due to scoring at least 74 points in seven of those 10 games.

Now they take on a dead nuts OVER team in Illinois-Chicago, which ranks 79th in adjusted tempo, 128th in adjusted offense and 188th in adjusted defense.  But the Flames have struggled here of late against some better defensive teams, going 4-0 to the under in their last four games.  That's why I think this total has been set too low tonight.  

They had gone 10-1 OVER in their previous 11 games, including a 78-67 road win at Evansville in their first meeting this season that saw 145 combined points.  I expect 145-plus in the rematch today as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Notre Dame +2

Off back-to-back blowout losses to Louisville and SMU, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish take a big step down in class here against the Pittsburgh Panthers.  I fully expect them to pull off the upset at home.

Pitt is a team in turmoil right now going 4-8 SU & 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Jeff Capel is on the hot seat.  The Panthers are coming off consecutive lackluster home wins over two of the worst teams in the ACC in Miami and Syracuse.  Now they hit the road where they are 1-5 SU in their last six ACC road games with their lone win coming at Syracuse by 4.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Wake Forest -2.5

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are fighting hard to make the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 4-1 SU in their last five games, including 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three road games with a 79-73 win at Stanford as 3.5-point dogs, a 76-66 win at Cal as 2.5-point favorites and an impressive 77-66 win at SMU as 6-point dogs.

The Demon Deacons have had the last week off to rest and recover and prepare to continue this run down the stretch.  Now they take on a NC State team that looks to have quit.  The Wolfpack are 2-12 SU & 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They are coming off a 97-73 road loss at rival UNC on Wednesday, giving them just two days in between games to recover and get ready for Wake Forest.  I think they are just ready for this season to be over.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Penn State +4

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are in a letdown spot.  They pulled off the Los Angeles sweep of USC and UCLA with impressive upset victories out on the West Coast.  Now they return home where they have been terrible in their last two home games, losing by 21 to Illinois as 6.5-point dogs and getting upset by Washington as 3.5-point favorites.

It's time to 'buy low' on the Penn State Nittany Lions.  They are much better than their 4-12 record in Big Ten play would indicate.  Seven of their 12 Big Ten losses have come by 6 points or fewer, so they have just had poor luck in close games.

They also lost 69-61 at home to Minnesota in their first meeting this season, so they will be out for revenge.  Consider the Nittany Lions shot just 34.5% in that game while the Golden Gophers shot 53.1%.  It's safe to say they are due some positive shooting regression in their favor in the rematch today.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on North Dakota State/North Dakota OVER 159

North Dakota is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Fighting Hawks rank 102nd in adjusted tempo, 149th in adjusted offense and just 351st in adjusted defense.  They will control the tempo playing at home, and they face a North Dakota State Bison team that ranks 43rd in adjusted offense but just 297th in adjusted defense.

What really led me to this OVER 159 was looking at the first meeting between these teams.  North Dakota State won 87-82 for 169 combined points.  This game easily could have been a lot higher scoring when you consider North Dakota shot just 41.3% from the floor while North Dakota State shot just 41.4% from the floor.  There were a combined 24 missed free throws as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Iowa State/Houston ESPN No-Brainer on Iowa State +9.5

Note: I put in this play before I found out the news that Keshon Gilbert (14.1 PPG, 4.5 APG) and Curtis Jones (17.2 PPG) are both out for Iowa State.  I added the UNDER 133.5 since and like that play a lot more.  I no longer recommend a bet on Iowa State, but if you receive this play then bet on the UNDER 133.5 instead.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Iowa State/Houston UNDER 133.5

After releasing Iowa State +9.5, I found out that Keshon Gilbert (14.1 PPG, 4.5 APG) and Curtis Jones (17.2 PPG) are both out for Iowa State.  I immediately added the UNDER 133.5 as I think that's a very strong play with those two out, and it will likely cancel out the loss on Iowa State.

Houston is a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 361st in adjusted tempo and 3rd in adjusted defense.  The Cougars allow 57.6 points per game on 38.3% shooting, including 51.6 points per game on 36.1% shooting at home.

Iowa State ranks 10th in adjusted defense.  The Cyclones allow 66.9 points per game on 41.6% shooting.  Without Gilbert and Jones, I don't expect the Cyclones to top 60 points.  But I think they can hold Houston below 70, especially with how slow the Cougars play.

The UNDER went 2-1 in three meetings last season with 110 and 110 combined points in both unders.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Summit League GAME OF THE WEEK on North Dakota +4.5

I love the spot for North Dakota today.  They have had the last week off to rest and prepare to beat their biggest rivals in North Dakota State.  They are out for revenge after a 87-82 road loss to the Bison on January 25th in their first meeting this season.

This is a terrible spot for the North Dakota State.  The Bison just upset South Dakota State 77-68 as 6.5-point road dogs on Wednesday, avenging an earlier defeat to what they consider their biggest rivals.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat their 'little brother' in the Fighting Hawks again, and they only have two days in between games to prepare.  I expect the Bison to fall flat on their faces today and lose this game outright.

North Dakota has been impressive in two of its last three home games beating Oral Roberts 88-77 as 6-point favorites and upsetting South Dakota State 80-75 as 6.5-point dogs.  The Fighting Hawks have been competitive in every Summit League home game this season.  Keep in mind they only lost by 7 to Alabama as 25-point home dogs earlier this season as well.  Bet North Dakota Saturday.

20* Oregon/Wisconsin FOX No-Brainer on OVER 153.5

These aren't your daddy's Wisconsin Badgers.  They are an explosive offensive team that is playing with more tempo while also taking a step back defensively.  Books have failed to adjusted their totals up high enough, especially here of late.

The Badgers are scoring 82.0 points per game overall while ranking 6th in adjusted offense.  Their last two games were very impressive beating Purdue 94-84 for 178 combined points and Illinois 95-74 for 169 combined points.

Now they face another OVER team in Oregon which ranks 33rd in adjusted offense but just 53rd in adjusted defense.  The Ducks are coming off an 80-78 road win at Iowa for 158 combined points.  They have scored or allowed at least 80 points in five of their last six games, and 75 or more in nine consecutive games.

I like the fact that this will be the first meeting of the season between these teams, and unfamiliarity favors offense and OVERS.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Jazz OVER 234.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team especially when they are as healthy as they are right now.  The Jazz are 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall with 236 or more combined points in all six games.  They rank 10th in pace and 28th in defensive rating.

The Jazz are a pretty efficient offensive team when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They have scored at least 110 points in eight consecutive games and 14 of their last 16 games overall.  Markkanen (19.6 PPG), Collins (18.1 PPG), Clarkson (17.0 PPG) and George (16.4 PPG) are all healthy right now.

The OVER is 12-6-1 in Thunder last 19 games overall.  They also profile as an OVER team ranking 8th in pace and 6th in offensive rating.  They come out of the All-Star Break very healthy with their full compliment of weapons as one of the deepest teams in the NBA.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Jazz and Thunder with 237 or more combined points in five of those six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +15.5

The Utah Jazz are a tough out when they are healthy, and they are completely healthy right now with the exception of Collin Sexton.  But they are very deep at the guard position to make up for his absence.  Markkanen (19.6 PPG), Collins (18.1 PPG), Clarkson (17.0 PPG) and George (16.4 PPG) are all healthy right now.

We saw what the Jazz were capable of when having all these guys available down the stretch.  They upset the Lakers 131-119 as 9.5-point dogs two games prior to the break and took the Clippers to the wire in a 120-116 loss as 10-point dogs in their final game before the break the very next night.

Now I think the Jazz give the Thunder a run for their money tonight.  The Thunder may be a little relaxed coming out of the break with a commanding 8-game lead for 1st place in the West.  I don't think they'll be playing with a huge sense of urgency.

You're paying a tax to back the Thunder now after opening 44-11 SU & 34-17-4 ATS thus far this season.  Utah beat OKC outright in two of their last four home meetings and lost by just 5 in another.  The Thunder should not be 15.5-point road favorites here.  Bet the Jazz Friday.

20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Mavs OVER 235

The Dallas Mavericks have to go small ball right now due to injuries to their three tallest players in Davis, Gafford and Lively.  Small ball makes them more of an OVER team, and that has played out in recent games.

The OVER is 10-3 in Mavericks last 13 games overall with 229 or more combined points in 10 of those 13 games.  One of those games was a 137-136 win at New Orleans for 273 combined points at the end of regulation.

Now the Mavericks play the Pelicans again out of the All-Star Break and it should be another high-scoring affair.  The OVER is 10-4 in Pelicans last 14 games overall with 234 or more combined points in 11 of those 14 games.  That includes 230 or more combined points in eight straight and 234 or more in seven of those.

The Pelicans rank 3rd in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating over the last 14 games.  They profile as a dead nuts OVER team.  They still have plenty of offensive firepower with McCollum, Williamson and Murphy, but they have literally quit playing defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Michigan State/Michigan FOX ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 151

Two of the best defensive teams in the country square off tonight in this rivalry between Michigan State and Michigan.  I expect it to be a classic defensive battle with high intensity, and the books have set this total way too high.

The Wolverines rank 22nd in adjusted defense, 27th in effective FG percentage defense and 34th in 2-point percentage defense.  The 2-point percentage defense is key because the Spartans are a terrible 3-point shooting team and look to attack the rim constantly.  Things won't come as easy for the Spartans inside as they did against Purdue last time out, which is weak inside.

Michigan State ranks 141st in effective FG percentage offense and 354th in 3-point percentage at 29.1%.  But the Spartans hang their hat on the other end, ranking 13th in adjusted defense, 20th in effective FG percentage defense and 10th in 3-point percentage allowed at 29.2%.  That's important because Michigan attempts 43.5% of their shots from 3-point range.

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 143 or fewer combined points in three of those four meetings.  Michigan State and its opponents have combined for 144 or fewer points in six of its last seven games overall.  Michigan and its opponents have combined for 148 or fewer points at the end of regulation in six of its last nine games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Knicks/Cavs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 241.5

Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  I think both teams won't be looking to push the tempo as much on tired legs, especially the Knicks, who went to OT with the Bulls last night.

The Knicks remain without Josh Hart again tonight and OG Anunoby is questionable.  They are short-handed and don't have a deep bench.  Their replacements are Precious Achiuwa and Miles McBride, which is a big downgrade offensively.

The Knicks and Bulls were tied 104-104 at the end of regulation last night for just 208 combined points.  The Cavaliers beat the Nets 110-97 for just 207 combined points.  Both teams are a little rusty coming out of the break and that will continue tonight.

Cleveland beat New York 110-104 for just 214 combined points in their first meeting this season.  That total was set at 222.  So this total has been adjusted up 19.5 points from that first meeting.  The UNDER is 9-0 in the last nine meetings with 214 or fewer combined points in all nine.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +8

The Washington Wizards have quietly gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  That includes three outright upset victories, while also taking the Cavaliers and Pacers to the wire.

The spot really favors the Wizards tonight.  They will be playing their first game out of the break so will be fresh and ready to go.  Meanwhile, the Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a hard-fought 116-110 home win over the Clippers last night.

Making matters worse for the Bucks is that Damian Lillard (25.5 PPG, 7.4 APG) has been ruled out, while Bobby Portis (13.5 PPG, 8.3 RPG) has been suspended 25 games.  Giannis Antetokounmpo (31.4 PPG, 12.2 RPG) is expected to play but he is on a minutes restriction as he makes his way back from injury.  He played just 23 minutes last night.

This is also the Kris Middleton revenge game.  He is expected to make his debut for the Wizards after the Bucks traded him for Kyle Kuzma.  I think the Wizards will rally around Middleton and try and get him some revenge here.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5

I love the spot for the Memphis Grizzlies.  They were upset by the Pacers last night in a 127-113 road loss.  The blowout nature of the loss allowed their starters to rest in the 4th quarter as only one starter played more than 30 minutes last night.

Now the Grizzlies come back highly motivated for a victory as they don't want to drop two in a row out of the break.  The Grizzlies are one of the deepest teams in the NBA so they can handle these back-to-back situations better than most.  The Grizzlies are 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS on the 2nd of a back-to-back this season.

The Orlando Magic got revenge on the Hawks with a 114-108 road win last night.  They are satisfied and won't be nearly as hungry tonight.  The Magic also lack depth relying heavily on Franz Wagner and Paulo Banchero to do the bulk of their scoring.  Four starters played at least 32 minutes for Orlando last night including 37 from Banchero and 33 from Wagner.  

The Magic are 4-5 SU & 4-5 ATS on the 2nd of a back-to-back this season.  The Grizzlies are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Magic.  Bet the Grizzlies Friday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UC-San Diego/Cal Poly OVER 160.5

Cal Poly is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Mustangs rank 3rd in adjusted tempo and 1st in average length of offensive possession at 14.2 seconds in the entire country.  They also rank 265th in adjusted defense and 66th in effective FG percentage offense.

UC-San Diego is one of the best teams in the country that not too many know about.  The Tritons are 48th in adjusted offense and 34th in effective FG percentage.  They also like to get shots up quickly ranking 112th in average length of offensive possession at 17.1 seconds.

UC-San Diego beat Cal Poly 95-68 for 163 combined points in their first meeting this season.  I think they push for close to 100 points again in the rematch.  And Cal Poly should shoot better than the 41.1% they did in the first meeting, and the Mustangs will control the tempo at home.  They should also get more than 8 FT attempts like they did in that first meeting.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* USC/Maryland FS1 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 154

Maryland is 17-9 OVER in all games this season.  The Terrapins are scoring 83.5 points per game overall and 86.6 points per game at home.  They rank 58th in adjusted tempo, 24th in average length of offensive possession and 17th in adjusted offense.  They scored 101 points on Iowa, 83 on Nebraska and 90 on Rutgers in their last three games coming in.

USC is also a dead nuts OVER team going 17-7 OVER in all games this season, including 6-1 OVER in road/neutral games.  The Trojans also prefer to play faster ranking 130th in adjusted tempo.  They are 50th in adjusted offense but just 79th in adjusted defense.

The OVER is 9-2-1 in Trojans last 12 games overall with 151 or more combined points in 10 of those 12 games.  It's worth noting that none of those games went to OT.  Maryland is 9-3 OVER in its last 12 games overall with 157 or more combined points in five of its last seven games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +13.5

The Brooklyn Nets have quietly gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with four outright upsets.  They have formed a chemistry since trading for De'Angelo Russell and they are flying under the radar right now.

The Nets are only 1.5 games out of the play-in in the East, and the team they are trailing is the Chicago Bulls, who look to be in tank mode.  They believe they can make the play-in and will be an undervalued commodity down the stretch as they continue to play hard.

You're paying a tax to back the Cleveland Cavaliers now due to their 44-10 SU & 35-19 ATS records.  The Cavaliers are comfortably in 1st place in the East, 5.5 games ahead of the Boston Celtics.  I question their motivation coming out of the All-Star Break, and I think they could relax for a few games starting with tonight's game at Brooklyn.  Bet the Nets Thursday.

20* Hornets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 224

I've been riding these Lakers OVERS since they have been without Anthony Davis due to injury and trade.  They are such a poor defensive team without him, but they have picked up their pace of play on offense and are shooting a lot more 3-pointers without him.

Luka Doncic being in the mix now just makes the Lakers even more of an OVER team moving forward.  They have had to go a lot more small ball without Davis.  The Lakers are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with 230 or more combined points in six of their last seven.  That includes 241 or more combined points in three straight games.

As soon as I got confirmation that La'Melo Ball was listed as probable for this game I pulled the trigger on the OVER. Ball makes everything go for the Hornets offensively, averaging 27 points per game and 7 assists per game.  Mark Williams is also probable, and he averages 16 points per game.  The Hornets added Jusuf Nurkic who will provide even more inside scoring, something the Lakers have a weakness defending right now.

The Lakers beat the Hornets 112-107 in their first meeting this season on January 27th.  However, Ball got hurt in the 1st quarter in that game and the Hornets had to play the rest of the game without him.  As long as he stays healthy for four quarters the Hornets are going to hang a big number on the Lakers in what should be a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma State ML -125

I love the spot for the Oklahoma State Cowboys tonight.  They are coming off an embarrassing 38-point home loss to Texas Tech.  I think they let the 73-72 loss to TCU at the buzzer the game prior beat them twice.

The Cowboys had been playing well going 4-0 ATS in their previous four games.  They beat Arizona State by 13 and Utah by 9 in their previous two home games.  The Cowboys are 4-2 SU in their last six Big 12 home games and 9-3 SU at home overall this season.

UCF is on the struggle bus right now.  The Knights are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They let Colorado get their first and only Big 12 win this season last time out in a 13-point road loss to fall to 1-5 SU in their last six Big 12 road games.

The Knights were without G Jordan Ivy-Curry (13.9 PPG) against Colorado and he is questionable to pay in this one.  I think Johnny Dawkins has lost this team with the Knights losing each of their last four games by double-digits.  I don't see them firing back with much of an effort here in their 2nd consecutive road game.  Bet Oklahoma State on the Money Line Wednesday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Oregon PK

The Oregon Ducks are undervalued right now after a five-game losing streak with four of those losses on the road.  They have since rebounded with home wins over Northwestern by 6 and Rutgers by 18.  Now the Ducks take another step down in class here against the Iowa Hawkeyes.

I like the spot for Oregon because they will be playing just their 2nd game in 8 days so the travel to Iowa isn't that big of a factor.  Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes return home after a two-game road trip on the East Coast against Rutgers and Maryland.  They will be playing their 3rd game in 8 days with a lot of travel involved.

Iowa is 2-7 SU & 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall. Injuries are starting to mount up.  They were already without F Owen Freeman (16.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG).  Now G Drew Thelwell (10.5 PPG) is questionable with an ankle injury after missing their last game.

That was a 26-point road loss at Maryland as the Hawkeyes gave up 101 points to the Terrapins.  They are far and away the worst defensive team in the conference ranking 146th in adjusted defense.  Oregon is nearly 100 spots better at 48th in adjusted defense.

The Hawkeyes clearly don't have the same kind of home-court advantage they have in past seasons because fans just aren't supporting this team, and they know Fran McCaffrey is likely out the door after this season.  

The Hawkeyes are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games with their lone win coming against Penn State by a single point.  That's a Penn State team that has lost 11 of its last 12 games.  The Hawkeyes were also upset as 8-point home favorites by Minnesota.  Bet Oregon Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Illinois State ML +102

Illinois State lost 61-57 at Bradley in their first meeting this season.  But the Redbirds shot just 31% overall and 29% from 3-point range.  It was impressive they only lost by 4 when you consider the poor shooting from an Illinois State team that ranks 7th in effective FG percentage and 11th in 3-point percentage in the entire country this season.

I'm expecting positive shooting regression for the Redbirds in the rematch.  Plus, they come in highly motivated for a victory off three straight losses against a brutal schedule.  They also want revenge on the Braves.

Bradley is in the ultimate letdown spot after a 61-59 upset win at Drake, avenging their earlier loss to the Bulldogs at home.  Drake is the top team in the conference so that was a huge win for the Braves.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat Illinois State for a 2nd time this season.  Bet Illinois State on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on St. Thomas/South Dakota OVER 175

South Dakota is a dead nuts OVER team going 19-4 OVER in all games this season, including 10-1 OVER in all home games.  The Coyotes rank 2nd in the country in adjusted tempo and 345th in adjusted defense.

St. Thomas is one of the best offensive teams in the country.  The Tommies rank 47th in adjusted offense and 266th in adjusted defense.  They rank 2nd in effective FG percentage and 5th in 3-point percentage.

In their first meeting this season, the Tommies beat the Coyotes 119-104 for 223 combined points.  So we have nearly 50 points to work with in the rematch.  I don't expect both teams to top 100 points again, but this should still sail over this 175-point total as the books just can't set these South Dakota totals high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bradley/Illinois State OVER 144

These are two of the most efficient offensive teams not only in the MVC, but in the entire country.  Bradley ranks 4th in effective FG percentage and 1st in 3-point percentage in the nation.  Illinois State ranks 7th in effective FG percentage and 11th in 3-point percentage.

Both teams are sub-par defensively, especially the Redbirds, who rank 260th in adjusted defense.  Bradley won the first meeting 61-57 for just 118 combined points earlier this season.  But neither team shot up to par, especially Illinois State.

The Redbirds shot just 31% from the field and 29% from 3-point range, while the Braves shot just 42% from the field and 22% from 3-point range.  I'm expecting big positive shooting regression from both teams in the rematch.

Illinois State is 9-2 OVER in its last 11 games overall with 159 or more combined points in five of its last six contests.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Belmont PK

It's a good time to 'sell high' on Northern Iowa.  The Panthers have won 5 consecutive games against a pretty soft schedule with three home games and a neutral game.

The Panthers are in a tough spot not after having their game against Murray State pushed back until Monday due to weather.  Now they will be playing their 2nd road game in 3 days.  Belmont will have the rest and preparation advantage after having the last 3 days off.

The Bruins will be motivated for revenge from a 76-70 road loss at Northern Iowa in their first meeting this season.  They shot just 39.3% as a team, 31% from 3-point range and 59% from the FT line, yet still only lost that game by 6.

The Bruins are due some positive shooting regression when you consider they are an elite offensive team ranking 54th in adjusted offense, 25th in effective FG percentage and 9th in 3-point percentage.  They want revenge, have the rest advantage and they should be bigger home favorites tonight as a result.  Bet Belmont Wednesday.

15* NC State/UNC ESPN ANNIHILATOR on NC State +10.5

North Carolina is just 3-5 SU & 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  None of the three wins were impressive, either.  The Tar Heels needed OT to beat Boston College as 19.5-point home favorites.  They beat Pitt by 1 at home and beat a poor Syracuse team by 6 on the road.

Asking the Tar Heels to win this game by double-digits to beat is is asking a lot with just how poorly they are playing right now.  I know NC State will show up for this game against their biggest rivals.

We saw what the Wolfpack were capable of when they took Duke to the wire on the road a few weeks ago.  They also lost by just 1 at Stanford.

NC State wants revenge from a 63-61 home loss to UNC in their first meeting this season.  They lost by just 2 points despite shooting just 36.9% from the field.  I fully expect them to take the Tar Heels to the wire again in the rematch.  Bet NC State Wednesday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Evansville/Indiana State OVER 148.5

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Sycamores are 18-7 OVER in all games this season.  They have combined with their opponents to top this 148.5-point total in 21 of their 27 games this season.

The Sycamores rank 11th in adjusted tempo and will control the tempo playing at home.  They play a Evansville team that has really shown signs of life offensively here down the stretch.

Indeed, the Purple Aces have scored at least 74 points in six of their last nine games overall while going 7-2 OVER in those nine games.  I expect both teams to get to 74-plus in this one as we cash this total with ease.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Air Force +10

The Air Force Falcons are 0-14 SU in Mountain West play this season.  Due to that winless conference record, we are 'buying low' on the Falcons tonight.  I love the spot for them, and this is one of their best chances to get rid of that goose egg against a Wyoming team that is just 4-11 in conference play.

Air Force came close to beating Wyoming in their first meeting this season on January 4th in a 70-65 home loss as 3-point dogs.  Wyoming shot 57.1% overall and 9-of-13 (69.2%) from 3-point range while the Falcons were 5-of-13 (38.5%) from the FT line.  Yet the Falcons still only lost by 5.  Wyoming clearly will not shoot that well again in the rematch.

A big reason I love the spot for Air Force is the massive rest advantage.  The Falcons have had the last week off since losing at UNLV last Tuesday.  Wyoming will be playing its 3rd game in 7 days and started to show signs of wearing down in a 88-53 blowout loss at Colorado State last time out.  The Cowboys also played in altitude in New Mexico the game prior and will now be playing in altitude for a 3rd time in 7 days.  

Wyoming's four conference wins all came by 5 points or less or in OT.  Asking the Cowboys to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Air Force Tuesday.

20* Illinois/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin -3.5

The Wisconsin Badgers have quietly gone 12-1 SU in their last 13 games overall and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They are also 12-1 SU at home this season with one of the better home-court advantages in the conference.

After having an entire week off, the Badgers returned to action on Saturday with one of their best performances of the season in a 94-84 road win at Purdue as 6-point underdogs.  They should still be very fresh for this game against Illinois playing just their 2nd game in 10 days.

While this would usually be a letdown spot off a huge road win, it won't be for the Badgers.  They will have no problem shifting their focus to getting revenge on Illinois, who they lost 86-80 on the road to way back on December 10th.  They went on their 12-1 run directly after that defeat.

Illinois is not playing well right now.  The Fighting Illini are 5-5 SU & 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  That includes home losses to USC by 10, Maryland by 21 and Michigan State by 14.  They are so inconsistent because they shoot a ton of 3-pointers and do so at just a 31.1% clip, which ranks 308th in the country.

This will be the 6th game in 17 days for the Fighting Illini, who are the much more tired team right now.  I think that fatigue showed in their 79-65 home loss to Michigan State over the weekend, and it won't get any easier tonight against a Badgers team motivated for revenge.  Bet Wisconsin Tuesday.

20* Big East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Butler/Xavier OVER 152

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in Big East action tonight when the Xavier Musketeers host the Butler Bulldogs.  And this will be the first meeting of the season between these teams, so they aren't familiar with one another, which benefits offense over defense.

Butler is 9-0-1 OVER in its last 10 games overall.  The Bulldogs and their opponents have combined for at least 147 points in nine of those 10 games.  The Bulldogs have scored at least 78 points in six of their last seven games as they are thriving offensively right now.  The Bulldogs rank 41st in adjusted offense and 148th in adjusted defense this season.

Xavier is a perfect 7-0 OVER in its last seven games overall.  The Musketeers and their opponents have combined for at least 148 points in six of those seven games.  They have scored at least 74 points in five of their last six games.  They rank 109th in adjusted tempo, 56th in adjusted offense and 55th in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado +18

The Colorado Buffaloes are undervalued due to having the worst record in the Big 12 at 1-14.  But the Buffaloes have been much more competitive than that record would indicate.  They have just one conference loss by more than 16 points all season, so 13 of those 14 losses have come by less than this margin.

The Buffaloes are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only lost by 10 as 14-point home dogs to Houston and by 12 as 17-point road dogs at Kansas.  They did pick up their first conference win over the season over the weekend in a 76-63 home win over UCF.

While that would normally set a team like Colorado up for a letdown spot, that won't be the case here.  The Buffaloes are playing with double-revenge after losing twice already to Iowa State this season.  They lost in Maui and they lost by 10 at home to the Cyclones in their Big 12 opener.  This is the rare time that teams get a chance to face each other for a 3rd time in the regular season.

Iowa State will not be motivated to beat Colorado a 3rd time.  Instead, the Cyclones will be looking ahead to their huge showdown against first place Houston on Saturday.  Iowa State has just one win by more than 15 points in its last seven games.  The Cyclones are overvalued right now, and I question their motivation tonight.  Bet Colorado Tuesday.

15* Purdue/Michigan State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Purdue +4

It's safe to say the Purdue Boilermakers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing two straight games at Michigan and at home to Wisconsin.  I expect one of their best efforts of the season tonight at Michigan State to try and bounce back.

The loss to Wisconsin is easily explainable as the Badgers had an entire week off prior to that game and were the fresher, more prepared team.  They also shot 61.5% from the field, which isn't something the Boilermakers will have to worry about against Michigan State.

The Spartans are overvalued off an upset road win at Illinois where the Fighting Illini shot just 38.1%.  They had lost three of their previous four games with an upset home loss to Indiana, an upset road loss at USC and a road loss at UCLA as well.

Purdue owns Michigan State going 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings with the lone loss coming by 3 points.  That makes for a 10-0 system backing the Boilermakers pertaining to this 4-point spread.  Bet Purdue Tuesday.

20* Duke/Virginia ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia +14

The Virginia Cavaliers are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They won by 16 as 13-point dogs at Pitt, by 14 as 2.5-point home favorites over Georgia Tech and by 3 as 2-point road dogs at Virginia Tech.

The Cavaliers have been playing well for a while now going 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall not once losing by more than 15 points.  They are making a case for interim head coach Ron Sanchez to get the full-time gig moving forward as they are playing very hard for him.

The spot really favors the Cavaliers tonight.  Both teams played on Saturday, so both will have one day to get ready for this game.  However, Virginia had a week off prior to Saturday's game, so they will be playing just their 2nd game in 9 days.  The Blue Devils will be playing their 3rd game in 6 days and their 5th game in 13 days.  Bet Virginia Monday.

20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rutgers/Oregon OVER 153

Rutgers has completed flipped how it plays this season thanks to having two lottery picks in Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, who combine to average nearly 40 points per game.  The Scarlet Knights rank 91st in adjusted tempo, 63rd in adjusted offense but just 101st in adjusted defense as defense seems to be optional for them this season.

We've seen that play out in recent games with Rutgers and its opponents combining for at least 151 points in seven of their last eight games overall.  So this total of 153 is pretty low for a game involving the Scarlet Knights right now.

Oregon also profiles as an OVER team this season.  The Ducks rank 115th in adjusted tempo, 37th in adjusted offense and 51st in adjusted defense.  The OVER is 6-1 in Ducks last seven games overall, including 4-0 in their last four with 156 or more combined points in each of their last three games.

Rutgers is averaging 78.5 points per game in road/neutral games this season and Oregon is putting up 78.7 points per game at home.  I think both teams get close to 80 in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Utah State/New Mexico MWC ANNIHILATOR on Utah State +5.5

The Utah State Aggies are an elite offensive team that are scoring 81.8 points per game on 49.8% shooting on the season.  The Aggies rank 20th in adjusted offense, 14th in effective FG percentage and 110th.

While the Lobos are an improved defensive team this season, the fact that they held Utah State to just 63 points on 37.5% shooting in their first meeting was an absolute fluke.  The Aggies shot 5-of-31 (16.1%) from 3-point range and 10-of-23 (43.5%) from the FT line.  It was far and away their worst game of the season.

They want revenge from that shocking 82-63 home loss to the Lobos.  That was a tough spot for Utah State with just two days to prepare for New Mexico, while the Lobos had the previous six days off and were the fresher, more prepared team.  Now it's the Aggies with an extra day to prepare with the last four days off coming into this one.

I expect the Aggies to be much more efficient on offense in the rematch and get to 80 points, which they have gotten to in seven of their last 11 games coming in.  Utah State is 21-3 SU this season with the other two losses coming by 2 and 3 points.  The Aggies are 4-0 ATS as underdogs this season with outright upset road wins at St. Mary's, San Diego State and Nevada.  This is a game the Aggies can win outright.  Bet Utah State Sunday.

15* Creighton/St. John's Big East ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 142.5

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Creighton and St. John's.  Their first meeting this season was the ultimate defensive battle.  Creighton beat St. John's 57-56 at home on December 31st for just 113 combined points.

While I don't expect the rematch to be that low-scoring, I do like think there's value in the UNDER 142.5 today.  St. John's ranks 2nd in defensive efficiency and makes opponents work for everything they get.  The Red Storm are one of the worst shooting teams in the country ranking 234th in effective FG percentage and 353rd in 3-point percentage at 29.2%.

Creighton is improved defensively this season ranking 27th in adjusted defense.  They are 16th in effective FG percentage defense.  The Bluejays are allowing just 68.3 points per game and 40.2% shooting this season.  The Red Storm have been even better allowing 65.3 points per game on 39.9% shooting.

Creighton has allowed 70 points or fewer in eight of its last nine games coming in.  St. John's has allowed 12 consecutive games.  I don't expect either team to reach 70 points in this one.  St. John's and its opponents have combined for 134 or fewer points at the end of regulation in seven of its last eight games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Wichita State +8

The Memphis Tigers are overvalued right now laying 8 points on the road to Wichita State.  The Tigers are 21-4 this season and nationally ranked.  They have really struggled to live up to expectations here of late.

Memphis is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  That includes a non-cover in a 61-53 home win over Wichita State as 11.5-point favorites.  Now the Tigers are 8-point road favorites in the rematch, and that's not a big enough adjustment down for flipping home courts.

Wichita State is playing some of its best basketball of the season right now.  The Shockers are 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games overall including road wins at Charlotte and USF, as well as a home win over UTSA.  The Shockers are motivated for revenge and will give the Tigers a run for their money today.  

Four of the last five meetings between Memphis and Wichita State were decided by 8 points or fewer.  The Shockers are 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Bet Wichita State Sunday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Florida Atlantic/Temple OVER 160

The Temple Owls are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 14-0 OVER in their last 14 games overall with 143 or more combined points in all 14 games.  They rank 65th in adjusted tempo and 231st in adjusted defense.

Now Temple faces a Florida Atlantic team that also profiles as an OVER team.  FAU ranks 55th in adjusted tempo, 27th in average length of offensive possession, 67th in adjusted offense and 58th in effective FG percentage.

FAU 4-1 OVER in its last five games overall and rolling offensively.  The Owls scored 94, 94, 79 and 87 points in their last four games.  I think both teams get 80-plus in this one today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* WCC PLAY OF THE DAY on Pepperdine/Gonzaga OVER 160

Gonzaga is a dead nuts OVER team going 16-10 OVER this season.  The Bulldogs are scoring 87.2 points per game overall and 91.1 points per game at home.  They rank 7th in adjusted offense and 47th in adjusted tempo, including 15th in average length of offensive possession.  This is also the worst defensive team of the Mark Few era.

Pepperdine also likes to play fast ranking 69th in adjusted tempo and 216th in adjusted defense.  The Waves have recently gone for 169 combined points with San Diego, 173 with Washington State and 188 with San Diego.

Gonzaga beat Pepperdine 89-82 for 171 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Amazingly, these teams combined for just 11-of-44 (25%) from 3-point range in that game, so there is plenty of room for improvement in the shooting department in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington State +16

Washington State played St. Mary's about as tough as anyone has here of late in their first meeting this season.  The Cougars lost 80-75 as 6-point home underdogs.  Now they are catching 16 points in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment for flipping home courts.

St. Mary's even shot 57.7% from the field in that 5-point win over the Cougars.  They aren't going to shoot better than that in the rematch.  I think Washington State matches up well with the Gaels because you need to be able to shoot the ball well over their pack line defense.

Well, Washington State ranks 10th in effective FG percentage and 82nd in 3-point percentage.  The Cougars have the shooters to make St. Mary's pay for slacking off of them.  They have shot at least 49% from the field in 12 of their last 17 games overall.

This looks like a letdown spot for St. Mary's after five straight games against four of the top teams in the conference in Santa Clara (twice), Gonzaga, Oregon State and San Francisco.  They won't be all that motivated to beat the Cougars again.  Bet Washington State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Kansas State +6.5

The Kansas State Wildcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now.  They have gone 6-3 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Even the first three losses were impressive falling by 4 to Texas Tech as 7-point home dogs, by 10 at Kansas as 14.5-point road dogs and by 8 at Baylor as 11-point road dogs.

The wins were even better beating West Virginia by 13 as 2.5-point home favorites, Oklahoma State by 28 as 7-point home favorites, Iowa State by 19 as 14.5-point road dogs and Arizona State by 1 as 3-point road dogs.  They ended Iowa State's 29-game home winning streak with that emphatic win, and avoided the letdown in their next game against Arizona State, which was extremely impressive considering they had Kansas on deck so it was the ultimate sandwich spot.

The Wildcats then got their revenge with a 81-73 home win over Kansas as 3.5-point underdogs.  They went on to upset Arizona 73-70 as 3-point home dogs, handing Arizona just its 2nd conference loss of the season.  And the Wildcats cannot afford a letdown here as they have played themselves back on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.

BYU is getting too much respect here.  This is a tough spot for the Cougars having to travel back home after road games at Cincinnati and at West Virginia.  They lost by 18 at Cincinnati which followed up an 11-point home loss to Arizona.  This tough travel schedule with three of their last four games long road trips will have taken its toll.  The Wildcats should have a big advantage in the paint and on the glass against the undersized Cougars.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina +15

Many thought Florida would suffer a letdown the game after upsetting Auburn as 11-point road underdogs.  They showed up and took care of business in a 81-68 road win as 2.5-point dogs at Mississippi State.  This is the spot the letdown occurs Saturday at home against an unranked South Carolina team.

The Gamecocks are 0-11 SU in their last 11 games overall.  One of those losses came 70-69 at home to Florida as 11-point dogs.  So they already proved they could play with the Gators, who won't be all that motivated to beat this team again, especially after playing the cream of the crop in the SEC prior.

South Carolina has been much more competitive than that 0-11 SU record would indicate.  They are actually 5-3-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with a 3-point loss to Auburn, that 1-point loss to Florida, a 5-point loss to Mississippi State, a 4-point loss to Texas A&M and a 4-point loss to Ole Miss.  So they have proven they can play with the class of the SEC.

Another reason I'm fading Florida is injuries to two of its key players.  F Alex Condon (10.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.4 BPG) is out, while G Alijah Martin (15.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.7 SPG) is questionable.  I wouldn't be surprised if he sits considering it's South Carolina.  The Gamecocks are fully healthy and hungry for revenge heading into this one.  Bet South Carolina Saturday.

15* Summit League Total DOMINATOR on Omaha/St. Thomas OVER 156.5

A big reason Omaha and St. Thomas are at the top of the Summit League is due to both being so efficient offensively.  It certainly isn't due to defense as Omaha ranks 283rd in adjusted defense while St. Thomas ranks 261st.

St. Thomas is 55th in adjusted offense, 3rd in effective FG percentage and 9th in 3-point percentage.  Omaha is 123rd in adjusted offense, 95th in effective FG percentage and 47th in 3-point percentage.

St. Thomas is 16-6 OVER in all games this season scoring 84.4 points per game overall and 90.2 points pre game at home.  Omaha is scoring 84.3 points per game in conference play.  The Mavericks are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 157 or more combined points in six of those seven games.

That includes a 89-78 home win over St. Thomas on January 23rd that saw 167 combined points.  It should be another shootout in the rematch with St. Thomas hanging a big number on Omaha to lead the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Summit League GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Thomas -7.5

I love the spot for St. Thomas Saturday.  The Tommies want revenge from a 89-78 road loss at Omaha in their first meeting this season.  That was such a favorable spot for Omaha with over a week off to prepare.

Now it's the Tommies in the advantageous rest spot.  They have had the last week off while Omaha only has one day in between games after a 98-85 road loss at South Dakota State on Thursday.  They also lost their previous road game outright as favorites at South Dakota.

St. Thomas may have the best home-court advantage in the conference.  The Tommies are 11-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 18.8 points per game.  They have won each of their last four home games by 12 points or more.

With first place in the Summit League on the line and a huge rest advantage, I'm expecting one of the best efforts of the season from the Tommies.  The tired Mavericks won't be able to keep up playing their 2nd road game in 3 days.  Bet St. Thomas Saturday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cal Poly/CS-Northridge OVER 166.5

CS-Northridge beat Cal Poly 102-91 for 193 combined points in an absolute shootout in their first meeting this season on December 7th.  And it's not like either team shot the lights out especially Poly, which shot 41.4% from the field and 27.9% from 3-point range.

So we have about 27 points to spare in the rematch to cash this OVER 166.5.  And it will be another up-tempo game between two teams that rank in the Top 10 in the country in pace.  Poly ranks 3rd in adjusted tempo while Northridge ranks 8th in adjusted tempo.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Belmont/Southern Illinois OVER 158

Belmont is a dead nuts OVER team going 18-6 OVER in its last 24 games overall.  That includes 7-1 OVER in its last eight games with 153 or more combined points in all eight games.

Belmont ranks 30th in adjusted tempo, 56th in adjusted offense and 300th in adjusted defense.  The Bruins rank 25th in effective FG percentage on offense and 346th in effective FG percentage defense.  They just allowed 101 points to lowly Valparaiso last time out.

Southern Illinois also likes to push the tempo a little ranking 141st in adjusted tempo.  The Salukis showed they could keep up with the Bruins in a 90-86 road loss on January 8th for 176 combined points.  It should be more of the same in the rematch and another shootout today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Fresno State +8.5

Amazingly, Fresno State is 0-4 SU in OT games this season and 0-3 SU in OT games in conference play.  They managed to get blown out in two of those OT games losing by 11 to Nevada and by 11 at Wyoming.  I think their record in OT games has them grossly undervalued right now.

Fresno State is highly motivated for a victory and has played its best basketball at home this season.  The Bulldogs lost by 8 to Utah State, by 3 to San Jose State, by 5 to Colorado State, in OT to Nevada and by 14 as 14.5-point dogs to New Mexico in their Mountain West home losses this season.  They also beat Air Force by 9.

Now the Bulldogs face a team they can handle in UNLV< who they lost 87-77 to on the road is 15-point dogs in their first meeting this season on December 28th.  UNLV is just 2-5 SU in its last seven games with the two wins coming against two of the worst teams in the conference in Wyoming and Air Force.  Bet Fresno State Saturday.

20* Mississippi State/Ole Miss ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Ole Miss -4

Ole Miss wants revenge from a 84-81 (OT) loss at Mississippi State on January 18th.  Now the Rebels get the rival Bulldogs at home this time around where they are 10-2 SU this season with their only losses coming to Auburn and Texas A&M by a single point.

Chris Beard is one of the best head coaches in the country, and I trust him to make the proper adjustments in the rematch.  While the Rebels are surging right now going 4-1 SU in their last five games with their only loss to Auburn, the Bulldogs are faltering, going 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Rhode Island -6.5

Rhode Island is 12-2 at home this season.  The Rams want revenge from a 70-64 road loss at La Salle on January 25th where they shot just 34.5% from the field.  I like their chances of getting revenge in blowout fashion at home this time around.

La Salle is 3-10 SU & 3-10 ATS in road/neutral games.  The Explorers are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four Atlantic 10 road games, losing by 22 at UMass, by 12 at Saint Louis, by 30 at VCU and by 12 at St. Joe's.  Bet Rhode Island Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado PK

Colorado is 0-13 in Big 12 play this season.  It's safe to say the Buffaloes are highly motivated to get that first conference victory, and this looks like their best chance to get it Saturday.  I expect the Buffaloes to take full advantage.

Colorado hung with arguably the two best teams in the Big 12 in Houston and Kansas losing by 10 to the Cougars and by 12 at Kansas in its last two games.  That just shows the potential of this team.  The Buffaloes also have one of the better home-court advantages in the country.

The Buffaloes want revenge from a 75-74 road loss to UCF in their first meeting this season.  The Knights have let go of the rope in recent weeks, going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes double-digit home losses to Cincinnati and Iowa State and a 15-point road loss at Baylor.  

They are 1-4 SU in their last five Big 12 road games, and they have allowed at least 83 points in all six Big 12 road games this season.  The Knights are far and away the worst defensive team in the conference.  This is a tough travel spot for them having to go to altitude in Colorado.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

15* Big Ten Total DOMINATOR on Washington/Penn State OVER 150

This looks like a sneaky OVER game in the Big Ten between two teams that aren't familiar with one another and two teams that like to play fast.  Penn State ranks 50th in adjusted tempo and 40th in average length of offensive possesssion.

Washington ranks 117th in adjusted tempo this season.  These two teams rank in the in the Bottom 5 in the Big Ten in adjusted defense as well.  So both offenses should shine today in an up tempo affair.

The OVER is 4-0 in Washington's last four Big Ten road games including a 93-69 loss at Ohio State for 162 combined points last time out.  Penn State is coming off a 92-67 loss at USC for 159 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 Total DOMINATOR on West Virginia/Baylor OVER 134.5

Baylor just lost its only decent interior defender in F Joshua Ojianwuna (7.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG) to a season-ending knee injury.  They also simultaneously got back guards Edgecombe and Love, and now they are even more guard-dominated moving forward.  It should lead to more shootouts.

Baylor is 2-0 OVER in its last two home games with a 91-76 win over UCF and 167 combined points and an 81-70 win over Kansas and 151 combined points.  I expect the Bears to hang a big number on West Virginia today to pave the way in us cashing this OVER 134.5 ticket.

West Virginia has been a dead nuts under team in Big 12 play this season, which is why this total is so low.  But I think the Mountaineers will have a breakout offensive performance today and dominate the glass with plenty of easy put backs. They played a BYU team that profiles similar to Baylor and lost 73-69 for 142 combined points last time out.  

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with 140 or more combined points in all seven meetings making for a 7-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 134.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Purdue CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin +6

The Wisconsin Badgers are 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The two losses came by 2 at UCLA and by 8 at Maryland in a game they led the entire way until late.

The Badgers have shown they have no problem going on the road going 6-1 ATS in Big Ten road games.  I love the spot for them today considering they have had the last week off since a 74-63 win at Iowa last Saturday.  That has given them a full week to rest up and to prepare to beat Purdue.

The Boilermakers don't have that same luxury.  They just played on Tuesday and will be playing their 3rd game in 8 days.  They lost 75-73 at Michigan.  The Boilermakers have been vulnerable at home recently with a 5-point win over Indiana as 12-point favorites and an outright loss to Ohio State as 10-point favorites.

These teams are pretty evenly matched, so getting 6 points with Wisconsin is a nice value when you consider their rest and preparation advantage.  It's also worth noting that 7 of the last 8 meetings between the Badgers and Boilermakers have been decided by 6 points or fewer.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Illinois State/Indiana State OVER 156

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team going 17-7 OVER in all games this season.  The Sycamores rank 10th in adjusted tempo and 257th in adjusted defense.

Illinois State is 8-2 OVER in its last 10 games overall.  The Redbirds rank 71st in adjusted offense, 6th in effective FG percentage and 15th in 3-point percentage.  They are terrible defensively as well ranking 252nd in adjusted defense.

Illinois State beat Indiana State 85-81 for 166 combined points in their first meeting this season.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  This game should follow suit with the Sycamores controlling the tempo playing at home, and both offenses getting whatever they want.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on George Mason -3

George Mason is 20-5 this season and one of the best teams in the country that not many know about.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country as well as they are 14-1 SU at home this season with their lone loss coming by a single point.

What makes the Patriots such a trustworthy team is the way they get after it defensively.  The Patriots rank 13rd in adjusted defense.  They are tough to come back on once you get down because they play slow and make you work for everything you get on offense.

That's bad news for St. Joe's, which ranks 128th in adjusted offense and 53rd in adjusted defense.  What really stands out is just how poor the Hawks have been on the road this season.  The Hawks are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in Atlantic 10 road games including upset losses to Duquesne and Loyola-Chicago as well as a 16-point loss at Saint Louis.

All 14 of George Mason's home wins this season have come by at least 3 points, and 13 of them by more than 3 points.  I expect the Patriots to be fully focused knowing they get a week off after this game.  Bet George Mason Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wright State/Milwaukee OVER 154

Wright State and Milwaukee consistently play in shootouts when they get together.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 157 or more combined points in all five meetings, none of which went to overtime.

Four of the five meetings have seen 174 or more combined points an an average of 172 combined points, which is 18 points more than this posted total of 154.  Milwaukee won 95-79 in their first meeting this season on January 22nd for 174 combined points.

Milwaukee will control the tempo playing at home.  The Panthers rank 75th in adjusted tempo and are scoring 83.6 points per game on 49.5% shooting at home this season.  Wright State is scoring 77.0 points per game on 48.8% shooting this season.  The Raiders rank 128th in adjusted offense, 37th in effective FG percentage and 17th in 3-point percentage while playing faster than average.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego/Pepperdine OVER 151

San Diego is 7-3 OVER in its last 10 games with 147 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  The Toreros play fast ranking 42nd in adjusted tempo and 227th in adjusted defense.

They face a Pepperdine Waves team that also likes to play fast ranking 72nd in adjusted tempo and 209th in adjusted defense.  So there should be a ton of possessions in this game.

This is a rematch from a 98-90 win by Pepperdine on January 30th that saw 188 combined points.  Neither team shot better than 49% from the field, so it wasn't fluky at all.  And with this total at 151 for the rematch, we have 37 points to spare.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* WCC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oregon State/Portland OVER 143.5

Because Oregon State plays at a slow tempo, their totals are always adjusted down.  But what the betting market fails to realize is the Beavers are uber efficient on offense, which is what makes them such a dead nuts OVER team.

Indeed, Oregon State is 12-2 OVER in its last 14 games overall with 143 or more combined points in 12 of those 14 games.  That includes 146 or more combined points in eight of their last nine games coming in.  Oregon State ranks 50th in adjusted offense and 117th in adjusted defense.  The Beavers are 40th in effective FG percentage and 43rd in 3-point percentage.

Portland ranks 123rd in adjusted tempo and 334th in adjusted defense.  The Pilots will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  The OVER is 7-2 in Portland's last nine games overall with 147 or more combined points in each of their last eight games, making for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 143.5-point total.

Oregon State beat Portland 89-79 at home for 168 combined points in their first meeting this season on December 30th.  So we have nearly 25 points to work with here in the rematch with this total of 143.5 points.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +10

The Utah Jazz avenged their 132-113 road loss to the Lakers on Monday with a 131-119 home win over the Lakers on Wednesday.  Now they have their sights set on revenge on the Clippers after losing 130-110 to them on the road on Saturday.

That loss was anticipated considering the Jazz were without Markkanen and Collins and they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a OT loss in Phoenix the nights prior.  The Clippers had the previous night off and were motivated from a 3-game losing streak.

Now the Jazz should be much healthier and much more competitive in the rematch.  The Clippers have already announced they will sit Kawhi Leonard after a win over the Grizzlies last night at home, a Memphis team that was missing JA Morant.  The Clippers have to travel so this is a worse spot for them.  

The Jazz get to stay at home with no travel, and they got to rest their starters in the 4th quarter since they were blowing out the Lakers.  I think we get a big effort from the Jazz tonight to stay within this double-digit spread and push for the outright upset.  Bet the Jazz Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Clippers/Jazz OVER 224.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when they are as healthy as they are right now.  The Jazz are 5-0 OVER in their last five games going for 250 combined points with the Lakers, 245 combined points with the Lakers, 259 with the Warriors, 262 with the Suns and 240 with the Clippers.

The only player the Jazz might be missing is Collin Sexton, but they are very deep at the guard position with Collier, Clarkson and George filling Sexton's shoes nicely.  The Jazz rank dead last (30th) in defensive rating which is a big reason they are such an OVER team.

The Jazz lost 130-110 to the Clippers on Saturday for 240 combined points.  It's worth noting the Jazz did not have both Markkanen and Collins in that game, and those are arguably their two most important offensive players and it was still a shootout.

The Clippers put up 130 on the Jazz in that game and will likely hang another big number.  They put up 128 on the Grizzlies last night as well.  While Kawhi will not play, they still have plenty of offensive firepower without him, especially since trading for Bogdan Bogdanovic of the Hawks to give them another elite shooter.  These teams combined for 251 points in their previous meeting this season as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Maryland/Nebraska Big Ten No-Brainer on Nebraska ML -117

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They are 28-3 SU at home over the last two seasons.  They are playing their best basketball of the season heading into this showdown with Maryland tonight.

The Huskers are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat Illinois 80-74 as 4.5-point home dogs, Ohio State 79-71 as 2.5-point home favorites, Oregon 77-71 as 6.5-point road dogs and Washington 86-72 as 2-point road favorites.

Now the Huskers have their sights set on revenge from a 69-66 road loss at Maryland in their first meeting this season on January 19th.  Maryland has always had huge home/road splits and that is no different this season.  

The Terrapins are 2-4 SU in true road games with one of their wins coming by a single point at Indiana.  They have road losses to Washington, Oregon, Northwestern and Ohio State.  Bet Nebraska on the Money Line Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Rockets UNDER 218.5

Two elite defensive teams square off tonight when the Houston Rockets host the Golden State Warriors.  The Rockets rank 4th in the NBA in defensive rating while the Warriors rank 9th.  Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace as well.

That's why it's no surprise these teams have played two extremely low-scoring games in their last two meetings.  The Warriors won 99-93 at home over the Rockets on December 5th for just 192 combined points.  The Rockets got revenge on December 11th in a 91-90 home win for just 181 combined points.

Both teams are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight so there's a chance some key guys rest.  That includes Steph Curry of the Warriors.  But I like this UNDER either way.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Summit League PLAY OF THE DAY on Omaha/South Dakota State OVER 152.5

Two of the best teams in the Summit League square off tonight.  One of the reasons both teams are so good is because they are super efficient on offense.  And I expect both offenses to shine tonight.

South Dakota State ranks 87th in adjusted tempo and 100th in adjusted offense, including 48th in effective FG percentage.  The Jackrabbits are scoring 80.3 points per game overall this season including 89.5 points per game on 52.9% shooting in 11 home games.

Omaha ranks 142nd in adjusted offense and 264th in adjusted defense.  The Mavericks rank 94th in effective FG percentage and 42nd in 3-point percentage.  They are scoring 78.1 points per game overall including 84.3 points per game on 50.2% shooting in conference play.

The OVER is 5-1 in Omaha's last six games overall with 157 or more combined points in five of those six games.  South Dakota State just beat St. Thomas 102-86 at home for 188 combined points last time out.  These teams met on January 11th with Omaha winning 87-80 for 167 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Warriors/Mavericks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Golden State -4

The Golden State Warriors look revived since trading for Jimmy Butler.  They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their two games since he joined them with blowout road wins over Chicago by 21 and Milwaukee by 14.

The Dallas Mavericks made a statement in Anthony Davis' first game with his new team in a blowout home win over the Rockets.  But Davis suffered an injury in that game that will keep him out for multiple weeks.

PJ Washington also suffered an ankle injury in that game that kept him out of their next game and have him questionable for this game.  Daniel Gafford suffered an injury last game that will sideline him for multiple weeks.  They were already missing Lively, Martin and Powell, and Exum is questionable.

This is just a brutal break for the Mavericks having all of these key injuries happen at the same time.  There's not much to like about this team outside Kyrie Irving, but he cannot carry them by himself right now.  The Warriors should roll again.  Bet the Warriors Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Jazz OVER 236.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have been a dead nuts OVER team without Anthony Davis.  They are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 230 or more combined points in five of their last six.  They are playing faster and shooting more 3's while simultaneously being much worse off defensively without Davis.

The Utah Jazz are an OVER team when they are as healthy as they are right now.  The Jazz are 4-0 OVER in their last four games going for 245 combined points with the Lakers, 259 with the Warriors, 262 with the Suns and 240 with the Clippers.

The only player the Jazz might be missing is Collin Sexton, but they are very deep at the guard position with Collier, Clarkson and George filling Sexton's shoes nicely.  The Jazz rank dead last (30th) in defensive rating which is a big reason they are such an OVER team.

The OVER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between the Jazz and Lakers with 230 or more combined points in 10 of those 11 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Bucks/Timberwolves OVER 225

Anthony Edwards is questionable but he almost always plays when he has the questionable label.  He was questionable last game and put up 44 points against Cleveland.  He has been questionable in several games here of late and has scored at least 41 points in three straight, so he clearly is fine.  If he's announced in this total will go up.

The Bucks will be without Giannis but are fully healthy otherwise.  They traded for Kyle Kuzma which makes them more of an OVER team.  He is a terrible defender, but he can get buckets.  Kuzma had 21 points on just 9 shots in his last game with Milwaukee.

The Bucks have sailed OVER the total in their two games with Kuzma and without Giannis.  They went for 262 combined points with the 76ers and 236 with the Warriors.  Giannis is their best defender so they miss him on that end just as much.

The Timberwolves are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall with 230 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  Some of their younger players are getting more playing time and they are all offense and no defense, especially Dillingham and Shannon Jr.  The OVER is 5-3 in the last eight meetings with 234 or more combined points in five of those eight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Spurs/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 232.5

De'Aaron Fox is a dead nuts OVER player.  He likes to play fast and push the tempo while making everything easier on his teammates offensively.  But he's not known for his defense, and that's a big reason the Kings were always such an OVER team with him.

The Kings are 4-0 OVER in their first four games with Fox in the lineup.  They combined for 251 points with Atlanta, 233 with Charlotte, 223 with Orlando and 252 with Washington.  Charlotte and Orlando are two of the best under teams in the NBA.

Now the Kings face the Celtics, who rank 4th in offensive rating and will hang a big number on them.  The Celtics will be without Jrue Holiday, who would be tasked with guarding Fox.  Now Fox should have a huge game not having to go up against Holiday.  This total is too low given the trajectory of the Spurs right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Magic UNDER 207.5

Two of the best UNDER teams in the NBA square off Wednesday night.  The Charlotte Hornets are 31-19-1 UNDER in all games this season while the Orlando Magic are 33-22 UNDER in all games.  Injuries are a big reason why both teams have struggled so mightily on offense.

Both rank in the Bottom 3 in the NBA in offensive rating.  The Magic are 2nd-to-last in pace while the Hornets are 23rd in pace.  The Magic are 3rd in defensive rating while the Hornets rank in the top half of the league in defensive rating, a big improvement for them over previous years.

The Hornets are decimated by injuries right now without La'Melo Ball, Mark Williams, Brandon Miller, Grant Williams and Tre Mann.  Those are 5 of their top 6 scorers, and the key is being without Ball as he makes everything go for them offensively.

The Magic are without Suggs and have really struggled without him, showing his importance to this team.  They have even struggled since getting Banchero and Franz Wagner back because Suggs makes everything go.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Hornets and Magic with 204 or fewer combined points in four of those five, including 179 combined points i their last meeting this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Tulsa/Temple OVER 146

The Temple Owls are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 13-0 OVER in their last 13 games overall with 143 or more combined points in all 13 games.  They rank 64th in adjusted tempo and 210th in adjusted defense.

Tulsa is also a terrible defensive team ranking 245th in adjusted defense.  The Golden Hurricane and their opponents have combined for at least 146 points in four of their last six games coming in.

I know Jamal Mashburn Jr. is questionable for Temple, but they didn't have him against Memphis last game and they still put up 82 points in a game that saw a172 combined points.  They also put up 79 points at the end of regulation in their previous game against USF without him.  It would just be a bonus if he returns tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers -6

I've been fading the Iowa Hawkeyes a lot lately especially since they lost F Owen Freeman (16.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG) to a season-ending injury a few games ago.  They really miss his offense and defense both.

The Hawkeyes are 1-6 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone win coming by a single point over Penn State, which has lost 10 of its last 11 games.  The Hawkeyes are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in true road games this season while getting outscored by 16.8 points per game.  They have lost their last four road games all by double-digits.

Rutgers recently got Dylan Harper back from injury and he looks rejuvenated.  He had 28 points to lead them to an upset win over Illinois and 20 points in a hard-fought road loss to Maryland.  With him and Ace Bailey averaging nearly 40 points per game combined, this team could be dangerous moving forward.

This is a big step down in class for the Scarlet Knights and I expect them to take advantage.  Iowa ranks 154th in adjusted defense, far and away the worst defensive team in the Big Ten this season.  The Scarlet Knights should hang a big number on them in a blowout victory.  Bet Rutgers Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado +18

The Kansas Jayhawks are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They have gone just 4-4 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They are 1-3 ATS in their last four home games only beating Kansas State by 10 as 14.5-point favorites and UCF by 4 as 12.5-point favorites.

Colorado remains winless (0-12) in Big 12 play.  With that record comes a great opportunity to 'buy low' on the Buffaloes.  They have been much more competitive than that winless record indicates as 11 of the 12 losses came by 16 points or less, or by less than this 18-point spread.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the Buffaloes pertaining to this number.  They only lost by 10 to Houston last time out and will give Kansas a run for its money as well.  Bet Colorado Tuesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State +3.5

The Kansas State Wildcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now.  They have gone 5-3 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Even the first three losses were impressive falling by 4 to Texas Tech as 7-point home dogs, by 10 at Kansas as 14.5-point road dogs and by 8 at Baylor as 11-point road dogs.

The wins were even better beating West Virginia by 13 as 2.5-point home favorites, Oklahoma State by 28 as 7-point home favorites, Iowa State by 19 as 14.5-point road dogs and Arizona State by 1 as 3-point road dogs.  They ended Iowa State's 29-game home winning streak with that emphatic win, and avoided the letdown in their next game against Arizona State, which was extremely impressive considering they had Kansas on deck so it was the ultimate sandwich spot.

The Wildcats then got their revenge with a 81-73 home win over Kansas as 3.5-point underdogs.  While that would normally set them up for a letdown spot, that won't be the case with No. 13 Arizona coming to town.  Sitting at 12-11 on the season, the Wildcats need every signature win they can get at this point if they want to make the NCAA Tournament.

If anything it's a letdown spot for Arizona, which is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall and coming off a huge 82-73 home win over Texas Tech.  Now the Wildcats have their biggest game of the season on deck against Houston, so this is a clear sandwich spot.  I think this is the perfect time to 'sell high' on Arizona tonight.  Bet Kansas State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Iowa State/UCF OVER 157.5

UCF is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Knights rank 18th in adjusted tempo and 22nd in average length of offensive possession.  They are also 45th in adjusted offense and just 117th in adjusted defense.  They have great guards who will keep coming.

The OVER is 15-6 in UCF's last 21 games overall.  Two games ago was very concerning in a 93-83 home loss to Cincinnati and 176 combined points.  They allowed the Bearcats to shoot 58.5% from the field.  That's a poor Cincinnati offense that had been held to fewer than 70 points in nine of its previous 10 games.

The Knights followed it up with a 91-76 loss at Baylor for 167 combined points over the weekend.  Now they take on an Iowa State team they lost 108-83 to on the road for 191 combined points in their first meeting this season.  So we basically have 33.5 points to spare here in the rematch with this 157.5-point total.

Iowa State just got its best shooter in Milan Momcilovic (10.6 PPG, 45.5% 3-pointers) back from injury in their last game against TCU and promptly scored 82 points on a very good Horned Frogs defense.  The Cyclones will be able to name their number again in the rematch to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 157.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue/Michigan OVER 151.5

The Michigan Wolverines are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 55th in adjusted tempo, 18th in average length of offensive possession, 24th in adjusted offense, and 7th in adjusted FG percentage.

The Purdue Boilermakers are an elite offensive team ranking 8th in adjusted offense and 12th in effective FG percentage.  They lit Michigan up for 91 points in their first meeting this season in a 91-64 victory for 155 combined points.  I think they will light the Wolverines up again, but Michigan will have a bigger offensive response at home in the rematch and will control the tempo playing at home as well.

Michigan is scoring 86.9 points per game at home this season.  While I don't expect Purdue to get to 91 again in the rematch, they have a really good shot to get to 80 when you consider they have scored at least 81 in four consecutive games now.  The OVER is 5-0 in Purdue's last five games overall.  The OVER is 8-3 in Michigan's last 11 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +9.5

Vanderbilt is 12-1 SU at home this season.  The Commodores have wins over the likes of Texas, Kentucky and Tennessee at home this season.  They should be able to hang with Auburn, and asking the Tigers to win this game on the road by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

I know Auburn will be motivated to bounce back from a 90-81 home loss to Florida as 11-point favorites, but they also have their biggest rival in Alabama on deck Saturday.  That makes this a sandwich spot for them.  I don't think we get their best effort here, and it will take their best effort to even come close to covering this inflated number.  

I know we'll get the best effort from the Commodores with the No. 1 ranked team in the country coming to town.  With that No. 1 ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  Bet Vanderbilt Tuesday.

20* Jazz/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234

The Los Angeles Lakers have been a dead nuts OVER team without Anthony Davis.  The Lakers are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 230 or more combined points in four of their last five.

The Lakers are playing faster, shooting more 3's, and playing worse defense without Davis.  Now they are expected to get even more offensive help with Luka Doncic making his debut tonight.  LeBron James and Austin Reaves are also probable, and both are huge to them being an OVER team.

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games combining for 259 points with Golden State, 262 with Phoenix and 240 with the Clippers.  They are only missing Collin Sexton tonight, but they are deep at the guard positions with Collier, Clarkson and George to fill his shoes.  They are a terrible defensive team regardless ranking dead last (30th) in defensive rating this season.

The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Jazz and Lakers with 230 or more combined points in nine of those 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Sacramento Kings +1.5

The Sacramento Kings are right in the thick of the play-in race in the Western Conference.  I like the fact that the Kings are fully healthy right now, and Zach LaVine now has a couple games under his belt with his new team so the chemistry should be pretty good moving forward.

The Dallas Mavericks were extra motivated to beat the Rockets last time out in Anthony Davis' first game with his new team.  They showed that emotion on the court, especially Davis, who was on a mission in their 116-105 win over Houston.

Unfortunately for the Mavs, Davis suffered another injury and now could miss up to a month.  PJ Washington also hurt his ankle and was knocked from that game and is questionable to return tonight.  Lively, Powell and Martin are already out, and Christie and Exum are both questionable.  

The Mavs are a mess in the injury department right now to say the least.  I think they are in a letdown spot off that big win over the Rockets which followed up a bigger road win over the Celtics.  This is the spot they fall flat on their faces due to being deflated from the Davis injury news.  Bet the Kings Monday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat +6.5

Jrue Holiday is out, and both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown both did not participate in shootaround this morning.  That means they are doubtful to play tonight, meaning the Celtics will be without three of their best players.  They should not be 6.5-point road favorites over the Miami Heat if that's the case.

The Heat sit at 25-25 on the season and desperate to make the playoffs.  They are also playing with a chip on their shoulder in the aftermath of the Jimmy Butler trade.  Andrew Wiggins is expected to make his Miami debut tonight and that is a big deal for this team that was lacking proven scorers without Butler.  

I expect a big effort from the Heat tonight with the defending champs coming to town.  It's a great rest spot for the Heat as well coming on on two days' rest.

The Celtics are in a letdown spot after a 131-104 road win over the Knicks on Saturday.  They have been terrible following a win and especially following a cover all season.  Amazingly, the Celtics are 0-18-1 ATS in their last 19 games following an ATS win.  Bet the Heat Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Wizards OVER 236.5

De'Aaron Fox is a dead nuts OVER player.  He likes to play fast and he makes everything easier on his teammates offensively.  But he's not known for his defense, and that's a big reason the Kings were always such an OVER player with him.

The Kings are 3-0 OVER in their first three games with Fox in the lineup.  They combined for 251 points with Atlanta, 233 with Charlotte and 223 with Orlando, which is a dead nuts under team.

Now the Kings face another dead nuts OVER team in the Wizards, who rank 29th in defensive rating and 4th in pace.  They went for 236 combined points with Atlanta and 258 with Cleveland in their last two games coming into this one.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 269, 231, 258 and 260 combined points.  That 269-point effort came in their first meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on San Antonio Spurs -10.5

After consecutive 1-point losses to the Hornets and Magic on back-to-back nights, the San Antonio Spurs will take out their frustration on the Washington Wizards tonight.  The Spurs are fully healthy and now have three games under their belts with De'Aaron Fox in the lineup.  The chemistry should be much better moving forward, starting tonight with a blowout win at Washington.

The Wizards are the worst team in the NBA at 9-43 SU & 21-30-1 ATS this season.  They traded away Kyle Kuzma, and his replacement in Khris Middleton is out.  Marcus Smart is also out, as is Alex Sarr.  Kyshawn George is questionable as well.  The Wizards are in a world of hurt right now playing short-handed.

The Wizards have been particularly bad at home here of late going 0-9 SU in their last nine home games with eight of those losses coming by double-digits.  That includes a 14-point loss to Atlanta, a 38-point loss to the Lakers, a 24-point loss to the Raptors, a 14-point loss to the Timberwolves, a 41-point loss to the Thunder, a 23-point loss to the Rockets and a 12-point loss to the Pelicans.  Bet the Spurs Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors +9

This is a very tough spot for the Houston Rockets today.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  It will also be their 9th game in 15 days, which is about a tough a situation as there is in the NBA.

It's no wonder the Rockets are going through their worst stretch of the season right now going 0-6 SU in their last six games overall.  They have also been without Fred VanVleet and Jabari Smith, which is a big reason for their struggles.  Now both Tari Eason and Steven Adams have been ruled out for this game.  Green played 41 minutes, Sengun 38, Brooks 37 and Thompson 37 yesterday.  I question now much those four have left in the tank as they'll have to carry the load again today.

This is more of a play against the Rockets than it is a play on the Raptors.  But I was impressed with Toronto hanging with Oklahoma City on the road last time out as 18.5-point dogs in a 12-point loss.  This is actually going to be a big step down in class for them after playing the Thunder, Grizzlies, Knicks and Clippers in their last four games.  They even upset the Clippers and took the Knicks to the wire during this brutal stretch.

Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last six meetings with Houston with one of the losses coming by just 4 points as 9-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  Asking the Rockets to win this game by double-digits to beat us given the extremely difficult rest spot they are in is asking too much.  Bet the Raptors Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Xavier/Villanova UNDER 141.5

Villanova is a dead nuts UNDER team. The Wildcats rank 346th in adjusted tempo this season.  They will control the tempo playing at home today.  We've seen 108 and 122 combined points in Villanova's last two games against DePaul and Creighton.  We've seen 138 or fewer combined points in six of their last ten games overall.

We saw this matchup once already this season back on January 14th when Xavier beat Villanova 69-63 for just 132 combined points.  And this has been an UNDER series to say the least.  Indeed, Villanova and Xavier have combined for 132 points or fewer at the end of regulation in 9 of their last 10 meetings, making for a 9-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 141.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Celtics/Knicks ABC No-Brainer on OVER 229.5

Two of the best offensive teams in the NBA square off Saturday when the New York Knicks host the Boston Celtics.  The Knicks are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in offensive rating this season, while the Celtics rank 4th in offensive rating and are shooting an alarming amount of 3-pointers.

One key injury here that will help us cash this OVER ticket is Jrue Holiday being out for Boston.  Holiday is one of the best defenders in the NBA, and not having him to defend Jalen Brunson is huge.  More Derrick White also benefits the OVER as he is much more known for offense than defense.

The Knicks will be without OG Anunoby, which is also a big loss for them defensively as he would match up with either Tatum or Brown.  Those two will likely have a field day not having to go up against him.

The OVER is 5-1 in Knicks last six games overall with 234 or more combined points in all six games.  They have scored 121 or more points in five of those six games.  The OVER is 5-2 in Celtics last seven games overall.  They have scored at least 112 points in all seven games and 118 or more in five of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Ole Miss -5.5

It looks like the LSU Tigers have quit.  They have gone 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Their last two games have been very concerning losing 89-58 at home to Texas and 81-62 on the road to Georgia.

Ole Miss has gone 2-4 SU in its last six games overall against a brutal schedule of Miss State, Texas A&M, Missouri, Texas, Auburn and Kentucky.  All four losses came down to the wire as well.  The Rebels finally get a break in the schedule today, and I look for them to take advantage with a blowout road victory.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +6.5

The Golden State Warriors are expected to start Jimmy Butler tonight to make his debut.  I think that is getting too much hype, and the Warriors aren't going to be hitting on all cylinders in his first game with his new team.  In fact, I expect the Warriors to be lost offensively.

The bigger problem is the Warriors just traded away several key rotational players including Wiggins and Shroeder, so they are short-handed and out of sync as it is.  They also remain without Jonathan Kuminga and have been terrible without him.  The Warriors are 7-10 SU & 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games overall.

This is a tough spot for the short-handed Warriors as well playing their 3rd road game in 4 days.  Meanwhile, the Bulls have had the last two days off and will be fresh and ready to go tonight.  Chicago has been very impressive in its last two home games beating Miami 133-124 as 3.5-point dogs and Denver 129-121 as 9.5-point dogs.  They are beating undervalued again tonight.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Grizzlies OVER 240.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Memphis Grizzlies host the Oklahoma City Thunder.  This has the makings of one of the highest-scoring games of the season tonight.

The Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 12-2-1 OVER in their last 15 games overall.  They rank 5th in pace and 1st in offensive rating during this stretch while scoring at least 115 points in 13 of those 15 games.

The Grizzlies have been a dead nuts OVER team all season.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating this season.  The OVER is 10-3 in Grizzlies last 13 games overall with 237 or more combined points in 11 of those 13 games.  They have scored at least 120 points in seven of their last eight games while allowing at least 119 points in five of those eight games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +2.5

This is such a favorable spot for the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.  Not only will they be max motivated to beat the No. 1 team in the Western Conference standings, but they will have a massive rest advantage over the Oklahoma City Thunder to boot.

Memphis has had the last two days off.  The Grizzlies are 35-16 SU & 34-17 ATS in all games this season despite battling through injury all season.  But now the Grizzlies are as healthy as they have been all season, and they are playing their best basketball of the season as a result going 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall with eight wins by 12 points or more.

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 121-109 win over the Toronto Raptors as 18.5-point home favorites last night.  It was a pretty lackluster effort considering the Raptors were missing Barrett and Poeltl and were extra short-handed after recent trades.

The Thunder are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three road games with upset losses to the Warriors as 9-point favorites and the Mavericks as 3-point favorites.  The Grizzlies are 21-5 SU at home this season.  Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.