20* Warriors/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State ML -135

The Golden State Warriors are as healthy as they have been all season. They have been in playoff mode for a month now and are playing their best basketball of the season as a result. They have gone 10-2 SU in their last 12 games overall heading into the play-in.

The Sacramento Kings have struggled down the stretch since losing the best 6th man in the NBA in Malik Monk along with Kevin Heurter. These are also two of their best shooters. They just don't have much productive depth, and that has really hurt them.

The Kings are 2-5 SU in their last seven games overall with their two wins coming against two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Blazers and Nets.

The Warriors knocked the Kings out of the playoffs last season and they have their number. I trust their championship pedigree to get the job done tonight especially since they are the healthier, more confident team playing the better basketball in this winner-take-all. Bet the Warriors on the Money Line Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Clippers OVER 220.5

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-0 OVER in their last eight games overall with 223 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  They are also 14-2 OVER in their last 16 games overall dating back further.

The Clippers are locked in to the No. 4 seed in the West with nothing to play for.  That means their backups are going to be getting a lot of run, and this is one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  It also means there will be zero defensive intensity on their end.  This one has shootout written all over it as a result.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder -19.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall to put themselves in position to clinch the No. 1 seed in the West.  They will clinch the No. 1 seed with a win today, and will be max motivated to do so.

The Dallas Mavericks are locked in to the No. 5 seed in the West.  They are one of the few Western Conference teams that are locked into their seeding.  As a result, they are resting all of their best players in Doncic, Irving, Lively II, Gafford, Washington, Jones Jr., Exum and Kleber.

It did not go well for the Mavericks last game without Doncic and Irving as they lost outright as 11-point home favorites to the Pistons 107-89, failing to cover the spread by 29 points.  But they even had four of those players that are sitting today playing in that game.  They will have arguably the worst lineup in the entire NBA playing today, and I don't see them staying within 20 points of the Thunder as a result.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies +13.5

The Denver Nuggets blew the No. 1 seed by losing 121-120 at the buzzer to the Spurs as 11.5-point favorites last game.  They are now in a 3-way tie with the Thunder and Timberwolves for 1st place in the West with one game to go.  But they lose the tiebreaker to both teams.

The problem is the Thunder are 19.5-point favorites over the Mavericks, who are sitting everyone today.  The Nuggets know they have no shot at the No. 1 seed, so they are likely to rest everyone today.  Jokic, Murray, Porter Jr., Gordon, Caldwell-Pope and several others are all questionable, but my anticipation is they sit.

The Nuggets have no business being 13.5-point road favorites over the Grizzlies without these guys.  This is what the line would be if they were all playing.  The Grizzlies continue to show up every night, which was the case last time out in their 123-120 loss to the Lakers are 16-point dogs.  This is a gritty team with a bunch of young players playing with something to prove.  LaRavia, Jackson, Goodwin and Pippen Jr. all scored 23 or more points against the Lakers.  Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Celtics OVER 227

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in the NBA in pace and 28th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 6-1 in Wizards last seven games overall with 230 or more combined points in five of their last six.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Wizards.

The Celtics have rested their starters and will rest them again today.  But these backups are great offensively and terrible defensively.  They will be looking to get as many shots up as possible as this could be their final significant playing time.  The Celtics scored 131 points last game with their backups and will hang another big number on the Wizards, who I expect to keep pace.

The Celtics have really let go of the rope defensively since clinching the No. 1 seed in the East.  The OVER is 10-3 in Celtics last 13 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Wizards +9.5

The Washington Wizards continue to show up.  They have just one loss by more than 9 points in their last 12 games.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the Wizards pertaining to this 9.5-point spread.

The Boston Celtics have announced they will be resting their 6 best players in White, Tatum, Porzingis, Horford, Holiday and Brown.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us without these six guys is asking too much.  Bet the Wizards Sunday.

20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix Suns -4.5

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They sit in 7th place in the West just one game behind the Pelicans for the 6th seed.  They own the tiebreaker over the Pelicans, who have to play on the road against the Warriors tonight.  The Suns are highly motivated to get out of the play-in and get that 6th seed.

The Suns are fully healthy right now and playing up to their potential.  They are 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They will be the fresher team tonight as they had yesterday off, while the Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.

The Kings are running out of gas and out of bodies.  They are 1-4 SU in their last five games overall with their only win coming against the lowly Nets.  They are without Malik Monk and Kevin Heurter right now to really hurt their depth and shooting.  Fox played nearly 41 minutes last night, while Murray played 36, Barnes 33 and Sabonis 35.  They won't have anything left in the tank for the Suns tonight.  Bet the Suns Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -12.5

The Atlanta Hawks have nothing to play for.  They are locked in to the 10th spot and the play-in and will have a road game against the Bulls, who they lose out on the tiebreaker to.  Their only concern is getting healthy for the play-in round now as they are dealing with a plethora of injuries.

Indeed, the Hawks are without Bey, Griffin, Johnson and Okongwu.  Dejounte Murray sat out last game with a quad injury and likely won't pay again.  Trae Young just returned from injury and they could be cautious with him as well.  I expect a very poor effort from the Hawks tonight with a lot of backups getting playing time.

The Minnesota Timberwolves still have a lot to play for.  They are tied with the Thunder for the 2nd seed and they are one game behind the Nuggets for the top seed in the West.  They are now fully healthy with Karl-Anthony Towns expected to return from his knee injury tonight.  They are going 'all in' to win their final two games and get the best seed possible.  I'll gladly back the healthier, more motivated team tonight laying the big number.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +15

The Miami Heat are content with being the 8th seed and in the play-in.  They trail the 76ers by one game for the 7th seed, and the 76ers host the Magic and Nets to close out the season and are likely to win both those games.  They trail the Pacers and Magic by two games with two to go for the 5th and 6th seeds.  They know they are essentially locked in to the 8th seed.

The Heat played like it in their last game as they lost 111-92 at home to the Dallas Mavericks.  Duncan Robinson is out Friday and Terry Rozier is questionable.  I wouldn't be surprised to see more starters sit for the Heat tonight as their main focus now is to just get healthy for the playoffs.

The Heat have no business being 15-point favorites over anyone right now given their situation.  The Raptors continue to battle and have a healthy Emmanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett in the lineup right now, plus could get back Gary Trent Jr. and Bruce Brown.  The Raptors are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall including an outright win at Milwaukee as 14.5-point dogs.  They only lost by 4 as 11.5-point road dogs at Brooklyn despite being short-handed in their last game.  They will show up again tonight and give Miami a run for its money.

The Raptors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Heat.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +10.5

The Boston Celtics have nothing to play for right now.  They locked up the No. 1 seed in the East several games ago and have been just going through the motions since.  They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and their last two games just showed how little they cared.

The Celtics lost 104-91 at Milwaukee as 3.5-point dogs on Tuesday before falling 118-109 as 3-point home favorites to New York on Thursday.  The Celtics tailed by 29 to the Knicks heading into the 4th quarter before they called the dogs off.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.

The Celtics have no business being favored by double-digits against anyone in this spot.  Their only goal right now is to get healthy for the playoffs.  They aren't concerned with blowing out Charlotte with two games to go in the regular season.  Even if they play their starters they have been resting those starters in the 4th quarter and will likely do so again.

Charlotte is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Hornets upset the Magic 124-115 as 12-point dogs, upset the Hawks 115-114 as 9.5-point dogs and took the Thunder to the wire in a 3-point loss as 7.5-point dogs.  They have not quit, and they will relish this opportunity to try and knock off the top team in the East.  They will clearly be the more motivated team, and motivation means a lot in the NBA.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

20* Pelicans/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +1

The New Orleans Pelicans have a lot to play for tonight.  They currently sit in 6th place in the West but just 0.5 games ahead of the 7th place Suns and the play-in.  They are playing with a sense of urgency right now beating those Suns 113-105 as 6-point road dogs and beating the Blazers by double-digits on the road in their last two games coming in.

The Pelicans are the much healthier team than the Kings right now.  The Pelicans have all hands on deck outside Brandon Ingram, who has been out for about a month.  He could return tonight, but I like the Pelicans either way.

The Kings are without two of their best shooters in Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter.  If it's not them it's Keegan Murray, who is also questionable to play tonight.  The Kings have really struggled since losing Monk, going 1-3 SU in their last four games overall with their lone win coming against the lowly Nets.  They return home from a 4-game road trip and will be playing in their 5th different city in 8 days.

The Pelicans own the Kings this season.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the four meetings with four blowout wins despite being underdogs in all four.  They won by 33, 10, 5 and 36 points for an average margin of victory of 21 points per game.  This is clearly a terrible matchup for the Kings, and that's even when they were healthy.  That's not the case any more, and the wrong team is favored here tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

20* Knicks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on New York -2.5

The New York Knicks are back to full strength outside of Julius Randle and playing well.  They beat the Bucks 122-109 as 4.5-point road dogs and followed it up with a 128-117 win at Chicago as 4.5-point favorites in their last two games coming in.  Their solid play will continue tonight in Boston.

The reason the Knicks are favored on the road here is because they have a lot to play for, while the Celtics are locked in to the No. 1 seed in the East with nothing to play for.  The Knicks sit in 3rd place in the East just 1.5 games behind the Bucks and only 1.5 games ahead of the Pacers for the 6th spot.  They have a lot at stake here.

The Celtics have been going through the motions here down the stretch in going 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have six key players listed as questionable tonight in Tatum, Brown, Holiday, Porzingis, Horford and Tillman.  Their only focus the rest of the way is to get healthy for a playoff run.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* Suns/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -4

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They are coming off an embarrassing 105-92 road loss to the Clippers last night.  They fell behind 35-4 in the 1st quarter to open the game and did a good job just to get back in it.  They shot 33.7% as a team and that's not going to happen again.

The Suns don't have to wait long for revenge as they meet in Los Angeles for the rematch tonight.  They need this game more as they sit in 7th place in the West and currently in the play-in and one game behind the Pelicans for 6th place.  They have a lot more to play for here tonight.

The Clippers are now locked in to the 4th or 5th seed.  They will likely play the Dallas Mavericks in the first round, who trail them by two games.  They don't care about home-court advantage.  They are without Kawhi Leonard and could be without James Harden again.  Meanwhile, the Suns could get back Jusuf Nurkic, but I like them to win and cover tonight no matter who plays.

The Suns have been a resilient team going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  They are coming off two consecutive losses and haven't lost three straight games since December 19-25.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

20* Timberwolves/Nuggets ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 213.5

Defensive intensity will be high between the Nuggets and Timberwolves tonight.  1st place in the West is on the line with both teams tied at 55-24 this season with three games to go.  And these are two of the best defensive teams in the league as it is with the Timberwolves ranking 1st in defensive rating and the Nuggets 8th.

Both teams prefer to play slow as well with the Nuggets ranking 26th in pace and the Timberwolves 21st.  Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and will be tired as a result, which will also help slow down the tempo.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and this will be the 4th meeting this season between the Nuggets and Timberwolves.  They have combined for 201, 227 and 209 points in their first three meetings.  I think this one stays well UNDER the posted total of 213.5 tonight for all these reasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Magic/Bucks UNDER 216.5

The Orlando Magic are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 27th in pace and 3rd in defensive rating.  The Milwaukee Bucks have trended UNDER since Doc Rivers took over.  Now they will be without Giannis after he suffered a calf injury last night in a 104-91 home win over the Celtics.

Defensive intensity should be high for this one with the Bucks sitting two games ahead of the Magic for 2nd place in the East, and these teams meeting twice in their final three games to decide it.  Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back as well, so I don't look for either to be running much, and this one will be played in the half court.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Nets OVER 222

The Toronto Raptors are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 239 or more combined points in five of those seven games, and 228 or more in six of them.  They are playing no defense right now allowing 122 or more points in six of those seven games.

Neither the Nets nor the Raptors will be interested in playing defense tonight.  The Raptors get Immanuel Quickley back tonight making them even more of an OVER team.  The Nets are expected to have Cam Johnson in the lineup after sitting out last game.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Raptors right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

25* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Pelicans -10

The New Orleans Pelicans are in 7th place in the West and currently in the play-in if the season were to end today.  But they are tied with the 6th place Suns and losing out on the tiebreaker.  They have a lot to play for here down the stretch, so they won't be taking the Portland Trail Blazers lightly tonight.

The Pelicans have played their best basketball on the road this season.  They just got back Jose Alvarado from injury and Zion Williamson showed he was healthy in their 113-105 upset win at Phoenix as 5.5-point dogs last time out.  They are only missing Brandon Ingram now, and he is scheduled to return soon.  They don't need him to crush the Blazers.

The Blazers are without their three best players in Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant and Malcom Brogdon.  They have gone 2-11 SU in their last 13 games overall with their two wins coming against the lowly Wizards and Hornets.  They return home from a 7-game road trip after a 17-point loss at Boston, and I love fading teams coming back home off an extended trip.  There's a lot of distractions they have to deal with back at home.

The Pelicans are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Blazers with all five wins coming by 9 points or more and by an average of 18.0 points per game.  It will be more of the same tonight given all that the Pelicans have to play for up against the short-handed Blazers.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Warriors/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -1.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have gone 9-2 SU in their last 11 games overall.  LeBron James sat out their last game and they lost to the Timberwolves.  I expect him back tonight with what's at stake for the Lakers.

The Lakers currently sit in 9th place in the West but just 0.5 games behind the Kings, and 1.5 games behind both the Pelicans and Suns for the 6th seed.  They also at the very least want to get a home game agains the Warriors in the play-in, and they lead the Warriors by 1.5 games.

The Warriors seems pretty much content with the fact that they will be the 10th seed and have to go on the road in the play-in.  They sat Steph Curry last game, and Draymond Green suffered a back injury that leaves him questionable tonight.  I just don't think the Warriors are going to play this game with the sense of urgency that the Lakers will.

The Lakers also want revenge from a 128-121 home loss to the Warriors on March 16th less than a month ago.  They need this win to split the season series.  The Lakers are 27-13 SU at home and playing their best basketball of the season right now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Bulls UNDER 213.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between the Bulls and Knicks in five days.  The Bulls won 108-100 in that first meeting on April 5th for just 208 combined points.  It will be another low-scoring, defensive battle in the rematch tonight.

Both the Knicks and Bulls are dead nuts UNDER teams because they play so slow.  In fact, the Knicks rank dead last (30th) in pace, while the Bulls rank 29th.  To no surprise, the UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings with 213 or fewer combined points in six of those 10 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pacers/Raptors OVER 240.5

The Toronto Raptors are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 239 or more combined points in four of those six games.  They are playing no defense right now allowing 122 or more points in five of those six games.

The Indiana Pacers are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall.  They rank 2nd in pace this season and will name their number against Toronto.  I think the Raptors keep pace well enough to get us this OVER tonight.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 252 or more combined points in all three meetings this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Purdue/UConn CBB Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 145.5

The Championship Game will be played inside a spacious Football Stadium at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ.  This is a poor shooting background, and it's going to take time for these players to get used to shooting in it.  Couple that with the nerves of playing in the title game plus max defensive intensity from both teams, and we have a recipe for a low-scoring, defensive battle.

UConn is an elite defensive team ranking 4th in adjusted defense.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Huskies last six games overall and 9-1 in their last 10 games.  They have held seven of their last nine opponents to 60 points or fewer, including 58 or fewer in five of their last six.  They will shut down Purdue as well.

Purdue ranks 12th in adjusted defense largely due to having Zach Edey inside to protect the rim.  The UNDER is 3-0 in Purdue's last three games overall combining for 113 points with NC State, 138 with Tennessee and 148 with Gonzaga.  They shot 57.1% and Gonzaga shot 49.2% in that game and it still saw just 148 combined points with the UNDER cashing.  They have held four of their five opponents to 38.7% shooting or worse in the NCAA Tournament.

Neither team will be getting easy looks inside with Edey and the best big man defender in the country in Donovan Klingan protecting the rim.  This game will be played at a snail's pace as well with UConn ranking 328th in adjusted tempo and Purdue 211th.  This is going to be a classic defensive battle in a game featuring the two best big men in the country.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Purdue/UConn CBB Championship No-Brainer on UConn -6

The UConn Huskies are 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games dating back to last season.  They have won all 11 games by 13 points or more.  Alabama shot 47.8% from 3 in the Final 4 and still lost by 14.

UConn has no weaknesses.  The Huskies rank 1st in adjusted offense and 4th in adjusted defense.  They have held seven of their last nine opponents to 60 points or fewer, including five of their last six to 58 points or fewer.

Zach Edey is the best player in college basketball, but UConn is the best team in college basketball.  The Huskies will have the edge at the four other positions on the court outside of Edey.  Plus, Edey hasn't had to face a defender as good as Donovan Klingan all season.  He is the best big man defender in the country.

Klingan will limit what Edey can do on the offensive end.  They won't have to double-team him, and that will make life much more difficult on Purdue's guards who won't be getting uncontested looks like they are accustomed to.  This is a terrible matchup for the Boilermakers.  Bet UConn Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Lakers UNDER 225

Both the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves have a lot to play for tonight.  Defensive intensity will be high as a result.  The Timberwolves trail the Nuggets by just 0.5 games for 1st place in the West.  The Lakers have climbed their way into the 8th spot and trail the 7th place Pelicans by 0.5 games and the Suns by 1.5 games for 6th.

Minnesota is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Timberwolves rank 21st in pace and 1st in defensive rating.  They are coming off a 97-87 loss to the Suns for just 184 combined points.  They are even more of an UNDER team without Karl-Anthony Towns right now.

The Lakers beat the Cavaliers 116-97 for just 213 combined points at home yesterday.  They aren't going to be looking to push the tempo playing the 2nd of a back-to-back today, and the Timberwolves won't allow them either.  There are also questions as to who will play for the Lakers on the 2nd of a back-to-back.

Minnesota is 16-5 UNDER when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this season.  The Lakers are 13-4 UNDER in their last 17 games after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Non-Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Kings/Nets UNDER 222

The Sacramento Kings are a much better defensive team than they get credit for.  The Kings are 12-3 UNDER in their last 15 games overall and would be 13-2 if they hadn't gone to OT against Memphis.  They have gone for 216 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in nine of their last 12 games overall.

They are without two of their best shooters in Kevin Heurter and Malik Monk, and both of those guys are defensive liabilities, which explains this UNDER run.  Monk is the NBA 6th Man of the Year and provides almost all their scoring off the bench.  The Kings are going to have to rely even more on defense moving forward without these guys.

The Kings are coming off yet another low-scoring 101-100 los sat Boston.  It will be more of the same today against the Brooklyn Nets, who beat the Pistons 113-103 yesterday for just 216 combined points.  Now Cameron Johnson and Dennis Smith Jr. are questionable to play for the Nets today.  The Nets rank 24th in pace and 22nd in offensive rating this season.

Brooklyn is 28-12 UNDER in its last 40 home games when revenging a road loss.  Sacramento is 49-31 UNDER in its last 80 road games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +7.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They upset the Suns at home, the Jazz on the road, the Knicks at home and the Pelicans on the road.  They also only lost by 4 as 10.5-point home dogs to the Warriors, and by 5 as 16-point road dogs to the Nuggets.  This team is grossly undervalued right now.

The Spurs are in a favorable rest spot today playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days.  Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris are all questionable to play today, but I like the Spurs no matter who suits up for the 76ers.  Bet the Spurs Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Blazers/Celtics UNDER 219

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dead nuts UNDER team right now due to playing without their three best players in Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant and Malcolm Brogdon.  They really struggle to score on offense, but they are full of hungry young players that have been getting after it defensively.

The Blazers are 3-0 UNDER in their last three games overall combining for 207 points with the Magic, 175 points with the Hornets and 210 points with the Wizards.  They won't be able to get much offensively against a Boston team that ranks 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating.

The Celtics have gone for 196, 222 and 201 points in three of their last four games.  They don't have much to play for right now so they aren't looking to run it up or push the tempo.  They could let the Blazers hang around as a result, but I like the UNDER much better.  Both Tatum and Brown are questionable for this one as well.

Portland is 20-9 UNDER in non-conference games this season.  The Blazers are 17-5 UNDER in their last 22 games off a win by 6 points or less.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Magic UNDER 212.5

The Chicago Bulls and Orlando Magic are two of the slowest teams in the NBA.  The Magic rank 27th in pace while the Bulls rank 29th.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, which benefits the UNDER.  The Magic rank 3rd in defensive rating as well.

The Bulls could be without both Coby White and Alex Caruso, who both suffered ankle injuries in their 108-100 win over the Knicks last time out.  That would make them go with a bigger lineup and not having White on offense would be a huge blow.

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 200, 190 and 191 combined points in three of the four.  Orlando is 10-2 UNDER In Sunday games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Raptors OVER 227.5

Both RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley returned from injury a few games back.  The Toronto Raptors are a dead nuts OVER team when they have their two best guards in the lineup.  They play faster, play worse defense and play much better offensively with these two on the court.  The Raptors are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 228 or more combined points in four of those five.

The Washington Wizards have been a dead nuts OVER team all season.  They rank 1st in the NBA in pace and 28th in defensive rating.  They have been filling it up offensively of late while knocking off some quality teams.  They have scored at least 107 points in eight of their last 10 games overall.

I like betting OVERS in games between two teams with nothing to play for at the end of the season.  These seem to be more relaxed games with no defense being played and all focus on the offensive end.  This contest fits the bill.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Mavs UNDER 227

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games overall with 214, 204, 204, 210, 228, 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in 10 of those 13 games.  They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 13 games.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between the Rockets and Mavericks in eight days.  The Mavericks won 125-107 in Houston on March 31st.  Dallas shot 24-of-47 (51.1%) from 3 and that's not going to happen again.

Plus, Dallas could be without Luka Doncic again after he missed their last game against the Warriors.  But I like the UNDER regardless.  This is an early 3:40 EST start time with it being a 2:40 body clock game for these teams.  They aren't used to playing this early in the day, and it usually takes a few quarters for them to wake up.

Dallas is 21-6 UNDER in its last 27 games against teams that allow 46% shooting or higher.  Houston is 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 road games off two or more consecutive overs.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Alabama/UConn Final 4 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 161.5

The Final 4 will be played inside a spacious Football Stadium at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ.  This is going to be a poor shooting background, and it's going to take time for these players to get used to shooting in it.  Couple that with the nerves of playing in the Final 4 plus max defensive intensity from both teams, and we have a recipe for a low-scoring, defensive battle.

UConn is an elite defensive team ranking 4th in adjusted defense.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Huskies last five games overall and 8-1 in their last nine games.  They have held seven of their last eight opponents to 60 points or fewer, including 58 or fewer in five consecutive games.  They will shut down this high-powered Alabama attack.

What has allowed Alabama to get this far is that they have finally started to play some defense in this tournament.  But they won't be able to get anything at the rim against UConn.  Illinois went 0-for-19 on shots that were contested by Donovan Klingan last game.  Illinois managed just 52 points for the game after coming into the game ranked No. 1 in adjusted offense.  It will be a similar fate for Alabama here, which isn't going to shoot nearly as well as it did against Clemson last game.

Alabama is 26-10 UNDER in its last 36 games as a double-digit underdog.  UConn is 19-9 UNDER against a team with a winning record this season.  The Huskies will control the tempo and slow this one down to a snail's pace as they rank 315th in adjusted tempo.  They also don't allow anything in transition, which Alabama relies heavily on.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Alabama/UConn Final 4 No-Brainer on UConn -11

The UConn Huskies are 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games dating back to last season.  They have won all 10 games by 13 points or more.  That's why I'm willing to lay the big number with the Huskies in this one.

UConn has no weaknesses.  The Huskies rank 1st in adjusted offense and 4th in adjusted defense.  They have held seven of their last eight opponents to 60 points or fewer, including five consecutive opponents to 58 points or fewer.  Illinois went 0-for-19 on shots that were contested by Donovan Klingan last game.  Illinois managed just 52 points for the game after coming into the game ranked No. 1 in adjusted offense.  It will be a similar fate for Alabama here, which isn't going to shoot nearly as well as it did against Clemson last game.

Alabama has been playing a little better defense in the NCAA Tournament, but they have still allowed an average of 81.5 points per game.  UConn is going to get whatever it wants offensively.  Klingan is going to dominate the paint on both sides of the court as the Crimson Tide have no answer for him.  And the crazy part about UConn's dominance in this tournament is that they have shot poorly from 3-point range, but it hasn't matter.  They are probably due for some positive 3-point shooting regression at the very least.

Alabama is due some negative shooting regression.  The Crimson Tide were on fire in the 2H from 3 against both Clemson and UNC in their last two games.  UConn has the length on the wing to contest more of their shots, and Alabama isn't going to be able to get anything at the rim against Klingan.  Their suspect defense will get exposed as well, and UConn will control the tempo ranking 315th in adjusted tempo, plus they do not allow anything in transition, which is something Alabama relies on.  This is a terrible matchup for the Crimson Tide on all fronts.  Bet UConn Saturday.

15* NC State/Purdue Final 4 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 146.5

The Final 4 will be played inside a spacious Football Stadium at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ.  This is going to be a poor shooting background, and it's going to take time for these players to get used to shooting in it.  Couple that with the nerves of playing in the Final 4 plus max defensive intensity from both teams, and we have a recipe for a low-scoring, defensive battle.

NC State has gone UNDER the total in its last two games and it would be three straight if not for OT against Oakland.  That game was tied 66-66 at the end of regulation for just 132 combined points.  The Wolfpack went on to beat Marquette 67-58 for 125 combined points and Duke 76-64 for 140 combined points.  As you can see, all three stayed well UNDER this 146.5-point total.

Purdue is one of the best defensive teams in the country ranking 17th in adjusted defense.  The Boilermakers will have an answer for NC State to slow them down, especially DJ Burns inside.  Zach Edey is going to make life very difficult on Burns, and the Wolfpack are going to have to become even more of a jump shooting team.  They won't get open looks because the don't have to double-team Burns with Edey on him.

Both teams have had a lot of time to prepare for this game after last playing on Sunday.  That extra time and preparation will also benefit the defenses and the UNDER.  Purdue is 8-0 UNDER in its last eight road games after three straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers.  NC State is 6-0 UNDER vs. good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or better this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Warriors/Mavericks UNDER 226

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 10-2 UNDER in their last 12 games overall with 204, 204, 210, 228, 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in nine of those 12 games.  They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 12 games.

The Golden State Warriors have allowed 100.8 points per game in their last six games and have really amped up their defense with the playoffs quickly approaching.  They rank 4th in the NBA in defensive rating in their last four games.

The Mavericks and Warriors have combined for 232 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings.  They just played on Tuesday with the Warriors winning 104-100 at home for just 204 combined points.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and it will be more of the same in the rematch tonight.

The Warriors are 22-11 UNDER in their last 33 games overall.  Defensive intensity will be high in this game with what's at stake for both teams.  I also don't expect either team to try and run very much since both will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +11.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They upset the Suns at home, the Jazz on the road and the Knicks at home.  They also only lost by 4 as 10.5-point home dogs to the Warriors, and by 5 as 16-point road dogs to the Nuggets.  This team is grossly undervalued right now.

The New Orleans Pelicans are grossly overvalued.  They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 12 to Boston, by 13 to Phoenix and by 9 to Orlando all at home.  They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall as well.  They have not played well without Ingram and Alvarado, and now Zion Williamson is questionable with a finger injury.  They should not be laying double-digits to the Spurs tonight.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Chicago Bulls ML -119

The Chicago Bulls have a massive rest advantage tonight over the New York Knicks.  The Bulls have had the last three days off and will be feeling fresh and ready to go tonight.  They also have a lot to play for trying to lock down the 9th seed in the East and a home game against the Atlanta Hawks in the play-in.  They lead the Hawks by just 0.5 games for that spot.

The Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 120-109 home win over the short-handed Kings last night.  Four of five starters played at least 38 minutes for the Knicks last night.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Bulls tonight.

Plays on home favorites (Chicago) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, a marginal losing team (40-49%) playing a winning team are 36-11 (76.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Chicago is favored for good reason tonight.  Bet the Bulls on the Money Line Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +4.5

The Houston Rockets fought hard to get back in the playoff race by winning 11 consecutive games prior to two straight losses to two of the best teams in the West in the Mavericks and Timberwolves.  They trail the Warriors by 3 games for the final play-in spot, and this is their 'last stand' tonight.

I think we get a massive effort from the Rockets, who should not be 4.5-point underdogs to the Warriors tonight.  The Rockets are 26-12 SU & 27-11 ATS at home this season with the best home-court advantage in the NBA from a ATS perspective.

The Warriors are getting too much respect after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall against a pretty soft schedule.  This is tired Warriors tam playing in their 6th different city in 10 days.  They know they can afford a loss to the Rockets and won't be fully dialed in, especially with a road game on deck against Dallas tomorrow that might have Kerr limit his starters' minutes as well.

Houston is 7-0 ATS after winning six or seven of its last eight games this season.  The Rockets are 16-7 ATS when revenging a same-season loss this season.  Houston is 9-1 ATS in home games against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Miami Heat -2.5

The Miami Heat are in playoff mode right now and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They are also as healthy as they have been in a long time.  The Heat currently sit in 6th place in the East just percentage points ahead of the 7th place Pacers.  They desperately want to avoid the play-in round at all costs.

The Heat have been playing with a sense of urgency in their last three games beating the Blazers by 60 at home, the Wizards by 12 on the road and the Knicks by 10 at home.  They are fresh and ready to go as they will be playing just their 4th game in 9 days.

The 76ers are getting too much respect as short road underdogs here.  They are coming off two consecutive victories against short-handed teams in the Raptors and Thunder which ended a 3-game skid.  Joel Embiid just returned from injury last game but is on a minutes limit and is questionable tonight.  The 76ers are still without De'Anthony Melton, and their next two best players in Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey are questionable tonight.  

I like the Heat regardless of who plays for the 76ers as this line should be higher than -2.5 even if the 76ers get good injury news.  But it's going to close a lot higher if they get poor injury news.  Bet the Heat Thursday.

20* Kings/Knicks TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 215.5

The Sacramento Kings are a much better defensive team than they get credit for.  The Kings are 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games overall and would be 12-1 if they hadn't gone to OT against Memphis.  They have gone for 216 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in eight of their last 10 games overall.

They are without two of their best shooters in Kevin Heurter and Malik Monk, and both of those guys are defensive liabilities, which explains this UNDER run.  Monk is the NBA 6th Man of the Year and provides almost all their scoring off the bench.  The Kings are going to have to rely even more on defense moving forward without these guys.

The New York Knicks have been a dead nuts UNDER team all season.  They are 24-14 UNDER at home this season.  They rank 8th in the NBA in defensive rating and dead last (30th) in pace, which is the reason for being a dead nuts UNDER team.

New York beat Sacramento 98-91 on the road on March 16th in their first meeting this season for just 189 combined points.  It will be more of the same in the rematch here tonight with the team that gets to 100 likely to win this one.  Defensive intensity will be high with the Kings and Knicks both having a lot to play for given their current standings in the playoffs.

Sacramento is 27-13 UNDER in its last 40 games as a road underdog.  New York is 11-2 UNDER after scoring 100 points or less this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Indiana State/Seton Hall ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana State ML -150

The Indiana State Sycamores are clearly out to prove a point that they belonged in the NCAA Tournament.  They haven't hung their heads, and they have had all hands on deck for the NIT.  They have won and covered each of their first four games depending when you bet, beating SMU 101-92 as 7.5-point favorites, Minnesota 76-64 as 7-point favorites and Cincinnati 85-81 as opening 2.5-point favorites but closing 5.5-point favorites, and Utah 100-90 as 4.5-point favorites.

I was part of the Indiana State steam with my 25* NIT GOTY on Indiana State ML -145 which closed -245 against Cincinnati.  A big reason for this strong of a pick was that the NIT Final 4 was special to them because it is being played in Indianapolis in their home state of Indiana, so they have a massive following there.  I was also on them against Utah, and I'm back on them for many of the same reasons in the NIT Championship Game.  The Sycamores are 16-1 SU & 11-4-2 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  This will be a de facto home game.

Seton Hall had the luxury of playing their first three games at home in the NIT against St. Joe's, North Texas and UNLV.  Then they got to play Georgia, which came out of nowhere to make the NIT semifinals after getting a late invite due to so many teams opting out.  So this will be a big step up in class for the Pirates, who couldn't have had an easier path to get here.  This will feel like a de facto road game for them for the first time this entire tournament.

The Pirates only have one day to prepare for Indiana State, which ranks 12th in the country in adjusted offense and is one of the most difficult teams to defend because everyone on the court can shoot the 3-pointer.  That's a huge advantage for the Sycamores as well.  Seton Hall is 1-8 ATS in its last eight games when playing its 2nd game in 3 days.  The Pirates are 0-6 ATS in road games against good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game this season.  Bet Indiana State on the Money Line Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Timberwolves OVER 215

This is a very low total for a game involving the Toronto Raptors right now.  The Raptors were trending under prior to combining for 246 points with the Knicks, 255 points with the 76ers and 239 points with the Lakers in their last three games.  A big reason for the under trend was injuries to four of their five starters.  But they just got Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett back from injury, and they return to a dead nuts OVER team with these two in the lineup.  Plus, Gary Trent Jr. was on a tear before sitting out last night, and he is back tonight.

The Timberwolves are likely to take the Raptors lightly tonight and I don't expect their defensive intensity to be as high as it normally it.  I do expect the Timberwolves to hang a big number on the Raptors, who have allowed 145, 135 and 128 points in their last three games and are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season.  They rank 25th in defensive rating and have been even worse since losing Barnes and Poeltl.

Toronto is 12-2 OVER in non-conference road games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Thunder/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City +9

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a lot to play for right now.  They trail the Nuggets by just 0.5 games for 1st place in the West.  I suspect they decided to rest their two best players in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams last night against the 76ers to save them for this game against Boston tonight.  There's a good chance they get one or both back, especially SGA.

Either way, I like the Thunder to be competitive tonight against a Boston Celtics team that has absolutely nothing to play for.  The Celtics have locked up the No. 1 seed in the East and are playing like it.  They have gone 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with two outright losses to the Hawks as 16.5-point favorites and 10.5-point favorites.  Asking the Celtics to win this game by double-digits to beat us when they have nothing to play for is asking too much.

Boston is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 home games when revenging a road loss.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +12.5

The Washington Wizards have quietly gone 4-3 SU & 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and have not packed it in.  They have outright upset wins over the Kings as 11-point dogs, the Bulls as 12.5-point road dogs and the Bucks as 13-point dogs during this stretch.

Both the Lakers and Wizards will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight, but the advantage goes to the Wizards getting to stay at home after playing at home last night, while the Lakers have to travel after winning in Toronto.  There's a chance the Wizards get both Kyle Kuzma and Richaun Holmes back from injury after both sat out last night as well.

The Wizards want revenge from a 134-131 (OT) loss as 9.5-point dogs at Los Angeles on February 29th.  The Wizards are actually 3-4 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Lakers with all four losses coming by 13 points or fewer.  

The Lakers are 3-12 ATS off a road win this season.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

15* Mavs/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas +1

The Dallas Mavericks are playing better than anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 11-1 SU & 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall with their lone loss coming at OKC as 10.5-point dogs without Luka Doncic.  They are almost fully healthy right now and playing their best basketball of the season.

What would surprise most people is that the Mavericks rank 4th in the NBA in defensive rating during this 11-1 run.  They have allowed 107 or fewer points in 10 of those 12 games.  Their trades for PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford are really paying dividends, and Doncic and Irving have great chemistry offensively.

The Warriors have won four in a row against suspect competition.  Now they take a big step up in class here against the Mavericks and are in a terrible spot.  The Warriors return home from a 5-game road trip, and I love fading teams returning home from extended trips because there are distractions to deal with back at home.  The Warriors are a tired team playing in their 6th different city in 10 days.

Golden State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days.  Dallas is 25-12 ATS in road games this season.  Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavs/Warriors UNDER 233

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 8-2 UNDER in their last 10 games overall with 232, 210, 228, 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in nine of those 10 games.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive rating during this stretch.

The Golden State Warriors have allowed 92, 93 and 97 points in three of their last four games and have really amped up their defense with the playoffs quickly approaching.  They are trying to make the play-in and fighting hard for it with four consecutive victories.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive rating in their last four games.

The Mavericks and Warriors have combined for 232 or fewer points in six of their last eight meetings.  The Warriors are 21-10 UNDER in their last 31 games overall.  Defensive intensity will be high in this game with what's at stake for both teams.  

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 230 or higher (Dallas) - a well rested team playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days, a good team (60-75%) playing a winning team are 57-21 (73.1%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Lakers/Raptors OVER 232.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have been one of the few dead nuts OVER teams here down the stretch.  They are 10-5 OVER in their last 15 games overall with 236 or more combined points in 15 of their last 22 games overall.  That includes 227 or more combined points in 18 of those 22 games.

The Toronto Raptors were trending under prior to combining for 246 points with the Knicks and 255 points with the 76ers in their last two games.  A big reason for the under trend was injuries to four of their five starters.  But now they get Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett back from injury tonight, and they return to a dead nuts OVER team with these two in the lineup.

The Lakers are 20-5 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record this season and we're seeing 244 combing points per game in these 25 games.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 234 or more combined points in all four, including 263 combined points at the end of regulation in their lone meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Utah/Indiana State ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana State ML -140

The Indiana State Sycamores are clearly out to prove a point that they belonged in the NCAA Tournament.  They haven't hung their heads, and they have had all hands on deck for the NIT.  They have won and covered each of their first three games depending when you bet, beating SMU 101-92 as 7.5-point favorites, Minnesota 76-64 as 7-point favorites and Cincinnati 85-81 as opening 2.5-point favorites but closing 5.5-point favorites.

I was part of that Indiana State steam with my 25* NIT GOTY on Indiana State ML -145 which closed -245.  A big reason for this strong of a pick was that the NIT Final 4 was special to them because it will be played in Indianapolis in their home state of Indiana, so they will have a massive following there.  The Sycamores are 16-1 SU & 11-4-2 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  This will be a de facto home game.

Utah got to play at home in their first three NIT games beating UC-Irvine, Iowa and VCU.  The Utes have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  But it has been a different story for them on the highway.  The Utes are just 5-12 SU & 6-11 ATS in road/neutral games this season.  They are allowing 77.5 points per game in these road/neutral games and their poor defense will get tested by a Indiana State team that ranks 17th in adjusted offense while scoring 84.6 points per game this season.

Utah is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 games when the line is +3 to -3.  The Utes are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 road/neutral games against a team with a winning record.  Utah is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road/neutral games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games.  Utah is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road/neutral games against good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Bet Indiana State on the Money Line Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Indiana Pacers -12

The Brooklyn Nets are just 4-9 SU & 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall and have fallen out of the playoff race.  They are coming off a 116-104 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Pacers tonight.

The Pacers have a lot to play for right now and will not be taking the Nets lightly as a result.  They sit in 6th place in the East but just 0.5 games ahead of the Heat for the first play-in spot.  They don't want to have to go into the play-in.

The Pacers are 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all seven wins coming by double-digits.  They are fresh and ready to go after having the last two days off since blasting the Lakers by 19 at home.  These rest and motivational advantages are the reasons I'm willing to lay this big of a number with the Pacers tonight.

Brooklyn is 1-10 ATS in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.  Indiana is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  The Pacers are 19-4 ATS against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  They beat the Nets 121-100 in their lone meeting this season on March 16th.  It will be more of the same tonight.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Pistons UNDER 216

Both the Memphis Grizzlies and Detroit Pistons are struggling offensively right now due to injuries.  The Grizzlies scored 88 points last time out against the Magic and are without eight players right now including Desmond Bane.

The Pistons have scored 103 or fewer points in nine consecutive games now while going 9-2 UNDER in their last 11 games overall.  They are without Thompson, Grimes, Fontecchio, Steward, Gibson and Umude with both Cunningham and Sasser questionable as well.

Detroit is 7-0 UNDER as a favorite this season.  Memphis is 16-6 UNDER in its last 22 road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Pistons are 9-0 UNDER in home games against poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic -15.5

The Orlando Magic crush bad teams like the Portland Trail Blazers.  They have gone 24-7 ATS as favorites this season including 9-1 ATS against a bad team that wins 25-40% of their games this season.  They are also 24-5 ATS against teams with a losing record this season.

The Magic have a lot to play for right now trying to fend off the Miami Heat for the Southeast Division Title.  They lead the Heat by two games for the title, meaning they are only two games ahead of the final play-in team as well.  They just crushed the Grizzlies by 30 last game at home, and I expect a similar result against the hapless Blazers tonight.

The Blazers are 0-9 SU in their last nine games overall with six losses by 12 points or more.  They have lost their last three games by 18 at Houston, by 14 at Atlanta and by 60 at Miami.  They have a G League lineup right now playing without their three best players in Malcolm Brogdon, Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons.  They are just ready for this season to be over.

Orlando is 8-0 ATS after failing to cover three of its last four ATS this season.  Portland is 0-10 ATS after scoring 95 points or less this season.  Bet the Magic Monday.

15* Jazz/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 223

The Sacramento Kings are a much better defensive team than they get credit for.  The Kings are 10-1 UNDER in their last 11 games overall and would be 11-0 if they hadn't gone to OT against Memphis.  They have gone for 228 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in 11 consecutive games now.  

They are without two of their best shooters in Kevin Heurter and Trey Lyles, and both of those guys are defensive liabilities, which explains this UNDER run.  Making matters worse is that they just lost Malik Monk for 4-6 weeks.  He is the NBA 6th Man of the Year and provides almost all their scoring off the bench.  The Kings are going to have to rely even more on defense moving forward without these guys.

The Jazz are a dead nuts UNDER team in their current state as well.  They are without their two best players in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson, plus John Collins is questionable.  The Jazz have been held to 111 points or fewer in seven of their last eight games overall while going 6-2 UNDER during this stretch.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavs/Rockets UNDER 231

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games overall with 210, 228, 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in eight of those nine games.  Dallas is without one of its best shooters in Josh Green right now.  This total is too high for a game involving the Mavericks with the way they are playing right now.

The Houston Rockets are fighting for a playoff spot as they trail the Warriors by just 1.5 games for the final play-in spot.  They have gone for 202 combined points with the Blazers, 224 combined points with the Thunder at the end of regulation, and 201 combined points with the Jazz in their last three games overall.  They are really picking it up on the defensive end of late.

Dallas is 10-0 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NC State/Duke Elite 8 No-Brainer on NC State +6.5

What more does NC State have to do to get some respect?  The Wolfpack are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their two non-covers both coming by 0.5 points.  They beat UNC and Duke in the ACC Tournament, and they beat Marquette outright as 7.5-point dogs in the Sweet 16.

Now the Wolfpack come back as 6.5-point dogs to a Duke team that they just beat in the ACC Tournament.  They have had a big change in philosophy and have the perfect lineup right now.  The Wolfpack feel like they can't lose at this point and a brimming with confidence.

Duke got the lucky break of Houston's best player in Jamal Shead going out with an ankle injury in the 1H when the Cougars were dominating.  It changed the entire game and Duke still had to sneak out a 54-51 victory without Shead.  They won't be so fortunate against NC State this time around.

NC State played the early game against Marquette on Friday while Duke played the late game against Houston.  I don't think that extra rest and preparation for the Wolfpack is being factored into this line enough.  It almost never is in these tournament scenarios, and it's one of the real edges we have on the books.  

Duke was in a war late with Houston Friday night and now has to come back and play a 5:05 EST start time on Sunday.  The Blue Devils lack depth as it is and won't have much left in the tank for NC State.  The Wolfpack controlled their game with Marquette from start to finish and didn't have to exert a ton of effort as a result.  They will actually be the fresher, more prepared team for this one.

NC State is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games as a neutral court underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Wolfpack are 7-1 ATS as neutral court dogs or PK this season.  NC State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Bet NC State Sunday.

15* Tennessee/Purdue Elite 8 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 148

Tennessee and Purdue played in the Maui Invitational.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  These teams know each other, and I expect this to be another defensive battle similar to what it was in the Maui Invitational.

Purdue beat Tennessee 71-67 for 138 combined points back in November.  This despite these teams combining for 50 made free throws on 78 attempts.  I have to think the refs will let them play more here with a trip to the Final 4 on the line and it won't be another free throw fest.

These are two of the best defensive teams in the country.  Tennessee ranks 3rd in adjusted defensive while Purdue ranks 19th.  Purdue shot 57.1% against Gonzaga who also shot 49.2% last game and that game still stayed UNDER the total with 148 combined points.  Neither team will exceed 50% shooting in this one.

Tennessee is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games after committing five or fewer turnovers last game.  Purdue is 7-0 UNDER in road/neutral games after three straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers.  There won't be many turnovers in this game, which means there won't be many fast break opportunities.  Bet the UNDER in this Elite 8 game Sunday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Clemson +3.5

The Clemson Tigers are capable of beating anyone in the country.  They have road wins over Alabama and North Carolina this season and should have beaten Duke in a 1-point loss with a weak foul call by the refs just before the buzzer handed the Blue Devils the win.

The Tigers are showing what they are capable of in the NCAA Tournament.  New Mexico was a popular pick to make a run, and the Tigers mopped the floor with the Lobos in a 77-56 win as 2-point dogs.  They controlled the game basically the entire way against Baylor in a 72-64 win as 4.5-point dogs.  And they once again controlled the game the entire way in a 77-72 win over Arizona as 7-point dogs.

I think Clemson's versatility offensively will give Alabama trouble as well.  Both big men PJ Hall (18.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and Ian Schieffelin (9.9 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 48.9% 3-pointers) can shoot it from outside, Chase Hunter (12.9 PPG) has been one of the best guards in the tournament, and Joseph Girard (15.0 PPG) is a 41% 3-pointer shooter.

As stated before, Clemson already won on the road at Alabama 85-77 as 8.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season on November 28th.  Hall had 21 points and 8 rebounds, Girard 16 points, Hunter 15 points and Schieffelin 9 points and 14 rebounds.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.

The Tigers have the rest advantage after playing the first game on Thursday night and had the luxury of resting and scouting Alabama in the late game.  I always think that's a bigger advantage than what gets factored in as the team that finished first and plays two days later gets more rest and preparation.  

Plus, Alabama just lost sharpshooter Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (9.0 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers) to a head injury, and now Nick Pringle (6.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG) suffered a leg injury against UNC and was noticeably limping.  The Crimson Tide's lack of depth will catch up to them here.  They are running on fumes after their comeback win over North Carolina from double-digits down in the 2H, especially with the crazy pace they play with.

Clemson is 9-1 ATS as an underdog this season.  Alabama is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games off a win by 6 points or less.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Hawks UNDER 223.5

The Milwaukee Bucks would be 3-0 UNDER in their last three games if not going to double-OT against the Lakers.  They combined with the Thunder for 211 points, combined with the Lakers for 202 points at the end of regulation, and combined with the Pelicans for 207 points in their last three games.

Now the Bucks will be without Damian Lillard tonight, making them even more of a dead nuts UNDER team.  But they get Patrick Beverly back from injury, and he is one of their defensive leaders and having him will be huge to try and slow down Dejounte Murray of the Hawks.

Murray's usage rate for the Hawks has gone through the roof since losing Trae Young.  They have 6 players out and Jalen Johnson is questionable.  The Hawks have had to rely a lot more on defense of late to be competitive.

Milwaukee is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine games against a team with a losing record.  The Bucks are 18-4 UNDER in their last 22 games against teams that attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Elite 8 Total DOMINATOR on Illinois/UConn UNDER 155.5

UConn is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Huskies rank 319th in adjusted tempo and 6th in adjusted defense.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Huskies last eight games overall with 143 or fewer combined points in seven of those eight games.

Illinois is a dead nuts OVER team, but the Fighting Illini won't be able to get out in transition against UConn.  Iowa State laid the blueprint holding the Fighting Illini in check in a 72-69 loss for 141 combined points in the Sweet 16.  It will be more of the same against UConn here.

UConn is 11-1 UNDER after scoring 40 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +6.5

The Boston Celtics have nothing to play for for the rest of the regular season.  They are locked in to the No. 1 seed in the East, so they are going to be lacking motivation the rest of the way.  That gives us a great opportunity to fade them because they are going to continue to be priced as the best team in the league.

The Celtics probably are the best team in the league when healthy and motivated, but neither is the case right now.  That explains how they lost two consecutive games outright to the Hawks as 16.5-point favorites and 10.5-point favorites in their last two games coming in.  Now they are once again laying too many points as 6.5-point favorites at New Orleans.

The Pelicans are 10-3 SU & 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are motivated right now to avoid the play-in round as they are currently the 5th seed only one game back of the Clippers for the 4th seed, but also only 2.5 games ahead of the Suns for the 7th seed and the play-in.  They need wins right now while the Celtics do not.

New Orleans is a perfect 8-0 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season and winning by 18.1 points per game.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Kings UNDER 230.5

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 7-1 UNDER in their last eight games overall with 228, 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in seven of those eight games.  Dallas is without one of its best shooters in Josh Green right now.  This total is too high for a game involving the Mavericks with the way they are playing right now.

The Sacramento Kings are a much better defensive team than they get credit for.  The Kings are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 games overall and would be 10-0 if they hadn't gone to OT against Memphis.  They have gone for 228 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in 10 consecutive games now.  They are without two of their best shooters in Kevin Heurter and Trey Lyles, and both of those guys are defensive liabilities, which explains this UNDER run.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The Mavericks and Kings just played each other on Tuesday with Dallas winning 132-96 for 228 combined points.  Dallas shot 55.4% from the field including 22-of-39 (56.4%) from 3-point range and it still stayed UNDER the total.  It's safe to say the Mavericks won't shoot that well again in the rematch.

Dallas is 9-0 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Duke/Houston Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Houston -3.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Houston Cougars after needing OT to beat Texas A&M.  That's just a team they do not match up great against as they only beat the Aggies by 4 on a neutral earlier this season.  It's also a very underrated Texas A&M team that was playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch and knocked off several other SEC powerhouses this season.

Keep in mind Houston led by double-digits in the final two minutes before a crazy comeback by the Aggies as well.  I think getting battle-tested in that game will benefit the Cougars moving forward.  Four starters fouled out, and a walk on had to ice the game from the FT line in OT.  That kind of win will only make them stronger moving forward when they get in this position again.

This will essentially be a home game for Houston being played in Dallas, TX, and Houston crushed everyone at home this season going 17-0 with nobody staying within 8 points or them.  I don't think that home-court advantage is being factored into this line enough.  They did not get the benefit of the whistle against Texas A&M, but they will likely get that benefit here with a rowdy Cougar crowd.

But this is more of a fade of Duke than anything.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Blue Devils after an easy route to the Sweet 16 blowing out both Vermont and James Madison.  This is a very soft Duke team, and that will get exposed against one of the most physical teams in the country in Houston.  I also don't expect the Blue Devils to shoot as well as they have thus far as McCain opened the James Madison game 6-of-6 from 3.

Now the Blue Devils must go up against the Cougars, who rank 2nd in adjusted defense behind only Iowa State.  The Blue Devils were already without Caleb Foster (7.7 PPG) heading into the NCAA Tournament, and now Jeremy Roach (14.3 PPG, 44.2% 3-pointers) suffered a finger injury against James Madison that leaves him questionable and far from 100% if he plays.  We are getting the Cougars at a discount in the Sweet 16 and we'll take advantage.  Bet Houston Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -7

The Houston Rockets have won 10 consecutive games and have gone 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Six of their last seven wins have come by double-digits, so they aren't even letting teams hang around.  Don't look now but the Rockets sit just one game behind the Warriors for the final play-in spot in the West.  They have been motivated to get that spot and are playing like it.

The Rockets should be laying more than 7 points to the hapless Utah Jazz.  The Jazz are 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, and 3-18 SU & 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games overall dating back further.  The problem for the Jazz is that they have been without their top two scorers in Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen for the majority of their last 21 games.  Clarkson remains out, and Markkanen is questionable.  They lost outright at home to the lowly Spurs even with Markkanen in the lineup last time out.

The Rockets beat the Jazz 147-119 as 11-point home favorites on March 23rd less than a week ago.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.  Houston is 13-1 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Rockets are 13-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +7

The Minnesota Timberwolves continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as 7-point underdogs to the Denver Nuggets tonight.  The Timberwolves are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 points at home to the Nuggets.

But that was a terrible spot for the Timberwolves playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after winning a close game in Utah the previous night.  They were out of gas and still put up a valiant effort against a Nuggets team that came into that game with a day off prior.  The Nuggets had a huge rest advantage.

Now the Timberwolves are fresh playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and will be highly motivated for a win over the Nuggets, who they trail by 0.5 games for 1st place in the West.  The Nuggets were upset as identical 7-point home favorites against the Suns last time out and haven't had consecutive days off since March 3-4.  Jamal Murray is questionable to play tonight after missing the last three games, and Nikola Jokic is battling through a back injury.

Minnesota is a perfect 9-0 ATS when revenging a home loss this season.  I love this Timberwolves team because they rank 1st in defensive rating and bring it on that end every night.  They also clearly have a ton of resiliency.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +12.5

The Charlotte Hornets showed some life in a 118-111 upset win as 10-point home dogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers last time out.  This is a pretty rested team as the Hornets will be playing just their 4th game in 10 days tonight.  They will get up for the Golden State Warriors tonight and give them a run for their money.

The Warriors are getting too much respect off two consecutive road wins at Miami and Orlando.  The Warriors are a tired team right now playing their 4th consecutive road game in 6 days.  Jonathan Kuminga is questionable to play tonight, and I question how much the Warriors have left in the tank for the Hornets in this one.

The Hornets have played a road-heavy schedule of late with 13 of their last 18 games on the highway.  They have been much more competitive at home.  In fact, the Hornets haven't lost any of their last 10 home games by more than 12 points.  That makes for a perfect 10-0 system backing Charlotte pertaining to this 12.5-point spread.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina -4

The North Carolina Tar Heels are the most disrespected No. 1 seed in the tournament.  Hubert Davis is also one of the most disrespected head coaches in the country as he is now 8-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament at North Carolina.  The Tar Heels are 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall with a pair of wins over Duke both home and away this season.  They just crushed Michigan State 85-69 as 4-point favorites in the Round of 32.  Now they are only 4-point favorites against Alabama in the Sweet 16.

The Tar Heels have no weaknesses.  They have two stud guards in RJ Davis (21.3 PPG, 41.1% 3-pointers) and Elliot Cadeau (7.3 PPG, 4.1 APG) who can both get to the rim whenever they want.  They have two stud big men in Armando Bacot (14.4 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 1.5 BPG) and Harrison Ingram (12.2 PPG, 8.8 RPG) and a sharp shooter in Cormac Ryan (11.3 PPG).

But as much as I love North Carolina, this is more of a fade of Alabama than anything.  The Crimson Tide had an easy path to get to the Sweet 16 beating College of Charleston 109-96 and Grand Canyon 72-61.  Both wins come with asterisks because both of those opponents shot very poorly, and Grand Canyon tried to beat them with 1-on-1 ball.

Charleston started the game 1-of-17 from 3-point range, while Grand Canyon shot 2-of-20 from 3 for the game.  The Antelopes also shot just 23-of-37 (62.2%) from the FT line.  The Crimson Tide won't be able to benefit from those poor shooting numbers against a great shooting team in UNC.  This is still the worst defensive team left in the tournament and UNC will expose those holes.  

Plus, Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (9.0 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers) has been battling concussion issues all season and just suffered another one that forced him from the Grand Canyon game.  He is a great shooter and their best perimeter defender.  I have a hard time believing he will be anywhere near 100% for this one if he plays, and if he does there is a high likelihood he gets knocked out again.  I like UNC to roll either way.  Bet North Carolina Thursday.

15* SDSU/UConn Sweet 16 ANNIHILATOR on UConn -11

The UConn Huskies are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS over the past two NCAA Tournament and covering by an average of 13 points per game.  All eight wins have come by 13 points or more, so I'm not worried about laying this 11-point spread against the San Diego State Aztecs in the Sweet 16.

This was a terrible matchup for SDSU in the Championship Game last year and that fact remains this year.  UConn beat SDSU 76-59 to capture the title last year as 7-point favorites.  No question the Aztecs want revenge, but they have a lot working against them heading into this one.

For starters, this is a tough travel spot for the Aztecs, who have to travel clear across country to Boston to face what is going to be a home-heavy crowd for the Huskies.  It's just a little over an hour from campus.  This is one of the earliest games of the Sweet 16 with tip set for 7:40 EST Thursday night.  The Aztecs didn't get home until early Monday morning after facing Yale in Spokane Sunday night.  They will have hardly any time to prepare for UConn with all this travel.

Teams that have had success against UConn this season have lit it up from 3 like Creighton did in Omaha.  The Huskies have gone 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS since that humbling defeat, and Bobby Hurley is keeping that chip on their shoulder saying that the NCAA Tournament committee blatantly gave them they most difficult region, which is true.

San Diego State runs its offense through Jaedon LeDee who is a monster inside.  However, he lacks height and will struggle to score against UConn's bigs inside.  The Huskies rank 3rd in effective FG percentage defense and 4th in 2-point percentage allowed.  They just don't allow anything at the rim.  San Diego State is going to have to try to win this game from the 3-point line, where they are terrible ranking 283rd in the country in 3-point percentage at 31.8% on the season.  Terrible matchup for them and terrible travel spot.  Bet UConn Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Rockets +7

The Houston Rockets have won nine consecutive games and have gone 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Each of their last six wins have come by double-digits, so they aren't even letting teams hang around.  Don't look now but the Rockets sit just one game behind the Warriors for the final play-in spot in the West.  They have been motivated to get that spot and are playing like it.

The Rockets should not be catching 7 points tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are in a terrible spot.  The Thunder will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 119-112 win at New Orleans last night.  All five starters played at least 30 minutes for the Thunder last night, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Rockets tonight.

Houston is 12-1 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Rockets are 7-0 ATS vs. teams that force 15 or more turnovers per game.  The Rockets also get Jabari Smith (13.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG) back from a one-game suspension tonight.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +4.5

This is a terrible spot for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  They are coming off a shocking upset win at 9.5-point road dogs at Milwaukee last night in double-OT.  Davis played 52 minutes, Russell 50 and Reaves 48 last night.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Memphis Grizzlies tonight, and don't be surprised if they rest some guys.

I like the Grizzlies when they have both Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane healthy, which is the case for tonight.  The Grizzlies are also the kind of team that continues to show up every night despite their current standing.  They would love nothing more than to upset the Lakers, who are in a huge letdown spot off the win over the Bucks.

The Lakers are 0-7 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season.  Los Angeles is 1-11 ATS off a road win this season.  This will be just the 2nd game in 5 days for Memphis tonight so they will be the much fresher team.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday.

15* Clippers/76ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -5.5

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  They are coming off two straight upset home losses to the 76ers and Pacers.  Now they get their shot at quick revenge against the 76ers on the road this time around.  They are fully healthy and primed for a big effort.  Ty Lue called out his team for being soft, and I expect the Clippers to respond with a blowout win tonight.

The 76ers are in a tough spot here returning home from a 4-game road trip after losing by 12 at Sacramento on the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the Clippers.  They will be playing their 15th game in 27 days and haven't had consecutive days off since February.  They remain without Embiid and Melton and now Kelly Oubre Jr. is questionable tonight.  They just don't have much talent outside Tyrese Maxey right now.

The Clippers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games after failing to cover four of their last five games.  Los Angeles is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games off two consecutive losses as a home favorite.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

15* UNLV/Seton Hall NIT ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 141

Two dead nuts UNDER teams square off tonight when the UNLV Rebels visit the Seton Hall Pirates in the NIT Quarterfinals.  Defensive intensity will be high as the winner gets a trip to the NIT Final 4 in Indianapolis.

UNLV ranks 305th in adjusted tempo and 86th in adjusted defense this season.  I think the fact that UNLV went over the total in their first two NIT games has inflated this total.  But they shot an unsustainable 60.8% against Princeton and 49.2% against Boston College.  Their opponents were also fouling at the end in wins by 7 over Princeton and by 9 over BC.

Seton Hall ranks 259th in adjusted tempo and 45th in adjusted defense.  They combined for 136 points with St. Joe's at the end of regulation prior to going to OT in their NIT opener.  Another low-scoring game occurred in a 72-58 win over North Texas for just 130 combined points last time out.  Opponents are only shooting 39.9% against Seton Hall at home this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Mavs/Kings TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 233.5

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 6-1 UNDER in their last seven games overall with 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in six of those seven games.  Dallas is without one of its best shooters in Josh Green right now.  This total is too high for a game involving the Mavericks with the way they are playing right now.

The Sacramento Kings are a much better defensive team than they get credit for.  The Kings are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games overall and would be 9-0 if they hadn't gone to OT against Memphis.  They have gone for 227 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in nine consecutive games now.  They are without two of their best shooters in Kevin Heurter and Trey Lyles, and both of those guys are defensive liabilities, which explains this UNDER run.

Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and will be on tired legs so I don't expect them to be pushing the tempo.  These are also the 6th and 7th place teams in the West right now, so defensive intensity will be high as both are trying to avoid the play-in round.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana State ML -145

The Indiana State Sycamores are clearly out to prove a point that they belonged in the NCAA Tournament.  They haven't hung their heads, and they have all hands on deck for the NIT.  They have won and covered each of their first two games beating SMU 101-92 as 7.5-point favorites and Minnesota 76-64 as 7-point favorites.

Now on the brink of getting to go to the NIT Final 4, the Sycamores will be 'all in' tonight to get this win.  The NIT Final 4 is special to them because it will be played in Indianapolis in their home state of Indiana, so they will have a massive following if they get there.  I think they get the job done here but I'm taking them on the Money Line instead of laying the -2.5 current spread.

Cincinnati squeaked by San Francisco 73-72 in their NIT opener before blasting Bradley 74-57.  I think that result over a fellow Missouri Valley team is giving the Bearcats more respect than they deserve.  Indiana State also won both of its meeting with Bradley this season.  Cincinnati also got to play at home but will now have to travel to face Indiana State.

The Sycamores are 15-1 SU & 11-3-2 ATS at home this season.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  Cincinnati went just 4-7 SU in true road games this season.  Indiana State is 9-1 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet Indiana State on the Money Line Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Dallas Mavericks -8.5

The Dallas Mavericks are highly motivated for wins right now and playing like it.  They sit in 8th place in the West and currently in the play-in round, but just 0.5 games behind the Phoenix Suns for 6th place.  They have a lot to play for right now and will not be taking the Utah Jazz lightly.

I love the spot for the Mavericks as they have had the last three days off and will be fresh and ready to go.  They beat the Jazz 113-97 as 13.5-point home favorites four days ago to improve to 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Their lone loss came by 7 at OKC as 10.5-point dogs without both Doncic and Irving.  The Mavericks are basically fully healthy right now.

The Jazz are an absolute mess right now.  They are 3-16 SU & 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They have lost five consecutive games coming in all by double-digits, and each of their last seven losses have come by 10 points or more.  They have been playing without their top two scorers in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson for much of this stretch and will likely rest both again tonight.  Kris Dunn has been suspended for this game as well.

Dallas is 15-4 ATS as a road favorite this season.  The Mavericks are 10-2 ATS off a win by 15 points or more this season.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavs/Jazz UNDER 237.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between the Jazz and Mavericks in the last five days.  Dallas won 113-97 for just 210 combined points in that first meeting, and it will be another defensive battle in the rematch that stays well below 237.5 combined points.

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 5-1 UNDER in their last six games overall with 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in five of those six games.  This total is too high for a game involving the Mavericks with the way theya re playing right now.

The Jazz have been playing without their top two scorers in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson.  They are struggling on offense to say the least scoring 107 or fewer points in four of their last six games.  This total is too high for a game involving the Jazz right now in their current state.

Utah and Dallas have combined for 236 or fewer points in 10 of their last 11 meetings.  That makes for a 10-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this inflated 237.5-point total.  Utah is 9-1 UNDER off a blowout road loss by 20 points or more this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -12

The Houston Rockets have won eight consecutive games and have gone 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Each of their last five wins have come by double-digits, so they aren't even letting teams hang around.  The short-handed Portland Trail Blazers won't be hanging around tonight, either.

Don't look now but the Rockets sit just one game behind the Warriors for the final play-in spot in the West.  They have been motivated to get that spot and are playing like it.  That's why I know they aren't going to take the Blazers lightly tonight, which is key when laying these big numbers.

The Blazers have lost six consecutive games coming in.  They are without Malcolm Brogdon and Jerami Grant tonight, with Anfernee Simons, DeAndre Ayton and Matisse Thybulle questionable to play as well.  I wouldn't be surprised if all of them sit given Portland's current standing.

Houston is 11-1 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Rockets are 25-11 SU & 26-10 ATS in all home games this season.  Bet the Rockets Monday.

20* Texas A&M/Houston TNT No-Brainer on Texas A&M +10.5

Texas A&M is playing its best basketball of the season here down the stretch just to get into the NCAA Tournament.  The Aggies are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with wins over fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Mississippi State, Kentucky and Nebraska.  They ran out of gas in their 5-point loss to Florida in their 3rd game in 3 days in the SEC Tournament.

No underdog in this NCAA Tournament has a higher ceiling than Texas A&M.  The Aggies have wins over Iowa State, Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky this season.  They even took Houston to the wire already once in non-conference play earlier this season, losing 70-66 as 7-point dogs on a neutral.  Houston even shot 11-of-27 (40.7%) from 3 in that game while the Aggies only shot 38.2% as a team, yet it was only a 4-point margin.  

I think the Aggies can stay within 10.5-points in the rematch.  Asking the Cougars to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  They just faced one of the worst teams in the tournament in Longwood and won easily.  They they lost by 28 to Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game, and injuries and lack of depth is a problem for them.  

Texas A&M is elite defensively and will force Houston into some scoring droughts that they are known for.  The Aggies are the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the country and can hang with the Cougars on the boards and in the physicality department.  The Aggies also potentially have the best player on the court in Wade Taylor IV, who scored 25 points in the 98-83 win over Nebraska.  But he isn't their only weapon as both Obaseki (22) and Radford (20) topped 20 as well.

Buzz Williams is 21-7 ATS in March games as the coach of Texas A&M.  Houston is 1-7 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Bet Texas A&M Sunday.

15* Northwestern/UConn TruTV ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 136

Games at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn have been very low-scoring in tournament season.  That's where the Atlantic 10 Tournament was played and that was a very low-scoring tournament with 132 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in nine of 12 games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the four games thus far at the Barclays Center in the NCAA Tournament with 111, 116, 131, and 143 combined points at the end of regulation.

Now we have a matchup of two dead nuts UNDER teams in UConn and Northwestern that both play at a snail's pace and are both elite defensively.  UConn ranks 324th in adjusted tempo and 11th in adjusted defense, while Northwestern ranks 340th in adjusted tempo and 54th in adjusted defense.

While UConn will get its points, I don't think the Huskies have faced many defenses as good as Northwestern.  And I know the Huskies will shut down the Wildcats, who are missing two key players to injury.  The Wildcats were tied 58-58 at the end of regulation with FAU last game for 116 combined points.  That's a hell of a job holding that high-powered FAU offense to just 58 points in 40 minutes.  And I don't think Northwestern gets to 60 in this one.

UConn is 14-5 UNDER in its last 19 March games.  The Huskies are 13-6 UNDER against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games this season.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Northwestern's last 10 games overall with 131 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in six of those 10 games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Thunder/Bucks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on OVER 232.5

Two elite offensive teams that like to get up and down quickly square off tonight when the Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bucks rank 6th in pace this season while the Thunder rank 7th.  The Thunder rank 3rd in offensive rating while the Bucks rank 5th.

The key here is that both teams are fully healthy right now.  The Bucks have scored at least 114 points in six of their last seven games overall while going 5-1-1 OVER in those seven games.  The Thunder have scored at least 118 points in eight of their last 11 games.  The Thunder average 120.7 points per game while the Bucks average 120.6 points per game.

The Bucks beat the Thunder 136-132 (OT) in their first meeting in a game that was tied 119-119 at the end of regulation for 238 combined points.  OKC is 7-0 OVER vs. teams that make 14 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Grand Canyon/Alabama TBS No-Brainer on OVER 168.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 7th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in adjusted offense while having the worst defense of the Nate Oats era.  Alabama is 25-8 OVER in all games this season including 13-3 OVER in road games.

The OVER is 11-1 in Alabama's last 12 games overall with 175 or more combined points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.  The Crimson Tide have scored at least 87 points in nine of their last 10 games overall while allowing 88 or more points in eight of their last 10 games.  They are coming off a 109-96 win over Charleston to easily cash the OVER in a game that saw 205 combined points.

I was impressed with how easily Grand Canyon scored on St. Mary's last round.  The Gaels are one of the best defenses in the country.  The Antelopes put up 75 points on them.  They rank 56th in adjusted offense and also rank in the top third of the country in terms of tempo, ranking 116th.  They won't mind getting up and down with Alabama in this one.

Grand Canyon is 42-24 OVER in its last 66 games.  Alabama is 9-1 OVER after allowing 90 points or more this season.  The Antelopes are 27-12 OVER in their last 39 games against a team with a winning record.  Grand Canyon is 15-3 OVER in its last 18 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  Alabama is 20-5 OVER against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on James Madison/Duke UNDER 148.5

Games at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn have been very low-scoring in tournament season.  That's where the Atlantic 10 Tournament was played and that was a very low-scoring tournament with 132 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in nine of 12 games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the four games thus far at the Barclays Center in the NCAA Tournament with 111, 116, 131, and 143 combined points at the end of regulation.

Duke is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Blue Devils rank 236th in adjusted tempo and 22nd in adjusted defense.  They have held nine of their last 12 opponents to below 70 points.  They just beat Vermont 64-47 for 111 combined points.

James Madison is also a better defensive team than they get credit for.  The Dukes rank 55th in adjusted defense.  They just held a very good Wisconsin offense to 61 points last game in their 72-61 win that saw just 133 combined points.

Duke is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 non-conference road games.  The Blue Devils are 12-2 UNDER in their last 14 neutral court games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* James Madison/Duke CBS No-Brainer on James Madison +7.5

James Madison is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  The Dukes are 32-3 this season with their three losses coming to Appalachian State (twice) and Southern Miss.  Keep in mind Appalachian State beat Auburn earlier this season.  The upset Michigan State on the road in non-conference, and they just upset Wisconsin 72-61 as 5.5-point dogs last round to prove they belong.  They dominated that game for all 40 minutes and were never in jeopardy of losing.

Duke had a much easier opponent in the opener with a 64-47 win over a bad Vermont team as 12.5-point favorites.  The Blue Devils lost to UNC twice this season, lost at Wake Forest and lost to NC State in the ACC Tournament.  I think the ACC is just way down this season, so it's going to be hard to trust any ACC team outside North Carolina moving forward.  The Blue Devils are on serious upset alert here.

James Madison is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 non-conference games.  The Dukes are 8-2 ATS against a team with a winning record this season.  James Madison is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better.  Bet James Madison Sunday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans -12

The New Orleans Pelicans are rolling right now going 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall and coming off a 23-point road win at Miami.  Six of those eight wins have come by 13 points or more.  You can chalk up another today against the hapless Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons are just going through the motions right now going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Four of the five losses have come by 13 points or more, including their last three by 27 at home to Boston, by 19 at home to Indiana and by 25 at Boston.

Not only are the Pistons going through the motions right now, but injuries are really starting to pile up as well.  They are without Ausar Thompson, Quentin Grimes, Simone Fontechio, Isaiah Stewart and Stanley Umude.  Their biggest bright spot this season has been double-double machine Jalen Duren, and now he is questionable with a back injury.

The Pelicans are 31-15 ATS in their last 46 games as road favorites of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Pistons are 14-30 ATS in their last 44 non-conference home games.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.

20* Oregon/Creighton TBS Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon +5.5

The Oregon Ducks are the one NCAA Tournament team that stole a bid by winning their conference tournament that I trust to make a deep run.  The Ducks have won five consecutive games including wins over Arizona, Colorado and South Carolina in their last three.  They have all the momentum right now and are playing their best basketball of the season.

A big reason I trust the Ducks is head coach Dana Altman, who is a proven winner in the NCAA Tournament.  Altman is 17-5 ATS in NCAA Tournament games as the coach of Oregon, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when listed as a 9 seed or higher.  The Ducks may also have the two best players ont he floor in C N'Faly Dante (16.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 1.9 BPG) and G Jermaine Couisnard (16.1 PPG), who had 40 points against South Carolina last game.  Both of these guys have taken their games to the next level down the stretch.

Creighton was in a dog fight with lowly Akron until late in the 2H last game.  They won 77-60 despite shooting 56.5% from the field and Akron only shooting 37.9%.  The Zips shot 6-of-27 (22%) from 3 as well, which is uncharacteristic for them, while the Bluejays shot 10-of-17 (59%) from 3.  They won't have those kinds of shooting numbers in their favor here when they take a big step up in class against surging Ducks.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Wizards UNDER 232

The Toronto Raptors are without four of their top five scorers in Scottie Barnes (19.9 PPG), RJ Barrett (19.5 PPG), Immanuel Quickley (16.4 PPG) and Jacob Poeltl (11.1 PPG) tonight.  Gary Trent Jr. (12.8 PPG) is questionable as well. It's no wonder the Raptors are struggling to score without all these guys.  They have been held to 119 points or fewer in 11 consecutive games and an average of 105.4 points per game during this stretch.  The Raptors rank dead last (30th) in offensive rating in their last 11 games and were just held to 96 points by the Magic, 89 points by the Kings and 103 by the Thunder in their last three games.

The Washington Wizards are without PG Tyus Jones (12.0 PPG, 7.3 APG) and Bilal Coulibaly (8.4 PPG) and could be without Jordan Poole (16.6 PPG), who is questionable.  They are hampered offensively right now and it has shown as they have scored 119 or fewer points in 11 consecutive games.  The Wizards have averaged just 106.8 points per game in their last six games while ranking 24th in offensive rating during this stretch.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Raptors last five games overall with 226 or fewer combined points in all five games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Orlando Magic -2.5

The Orlando Magic are the best covering team in the NBA and continue to get disrespected from oddsmakers.  The Magic are 42-28 SU & 45-23-2 ATS this season, including 25-8 SU & 24-9 ATS at home.  They have gone 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall with five striaght wins and covers all by 8 points or more.

The Sacramento Kings are coming off a 109-102 road loss to the short-handed Washington Wizards.  They also needed OT to beat Memphis at home and were upset by New York at home during a 1-3 ATS stretch in their last four.  They are getting too much respect here as only 2.5-point road dogs to the Magic with the way they are playing right now.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

20* Oakland/NC State TBS No-Brainer on Oakland +6.5

NC State just won five games in five days to win the ACC Tournament.  Four of the five games were decided by single-digits, so it took everything they had and then some.  I question how much the Wolfpack have left in the tank for the NCAA Tournament.

They got through Texas Tech on pure adrenaline, plus the fact that the Red Raiders play zero defense.  This is the game I think all these games will take their toll as the Wolfpack will now be playing their 2nd game in 3 days.  They are going to have to think because Oakland runs a great zone defense, and it's a very tough scheme to prepare for in one day.  I don't think NC State will be ready for it.

I like that the Golden Grizzlies acted like they expected to beat Kentucky after the game.  They feel like they belong, and I expect them to pull the outright upset here Saturday over the Wolfpack to advance to the Sweet 16.  They will have the best player on the floor in F Trey Townsend (16.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG), and he is surrounded by two great shooters in Blake Lampman (12.8 PPG, 36.5% 3-pointers) and Jack Gohike (12.8 PPG, 37.8% 3-pointers), who hit 10 3's himself to lead the upset of Kentucky.

The win over Kentucky was no fluke as Oakland went 2-3 SU & 5-0 ATS against Ohio State, Illinois, Drake, Xavier and Kentucky this season taking all five of those teams to the wire despite playing all five on the road.  The Golden Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Bet Oakland Saturday.

15* Washington State/Iowa State TNT ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -6.5

The Iowa State Cyclones have won the Big 12 Tournament in 5 of the last 11 years.  A big reason they have so much success in the Big 12 Tournament is because it is known as 'Hilton South' with the huge following they get from fans with only a 3.5-hour drive to Kansas City.  Well, now they are playing in Omaha, which is only a 2-hour drive from their campus.  They have a massive home-court advantage once again for the first two rounds of this tournament.

The Cyclones are playing their best basketball of the season in these tournaments.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS since the start of the Big 12 Tournament, beating Kansas State by 19 as 8-point favorites, Baylor by 14 as 2-point favorites and Houston by 28 as 5-point dogs.  They opened with a 17-point win over South Dakota State on Thursday as 15-point favorites.  They were up 25 in the final four minutes before calling off the dogs, so that 17-point win wasn't as indicative of how dominant the win was.  They won't be calling off the dogs against Washington State.

Washington State thrives when they play a soft team like Drake and Arizona that aren't very physical.  That's why they are able to upset Arizona twice and get by Drake last game with an 8-point comeback in the final seven minutes.  They won't have that same luxury against Iowa State, which will match and exceed their physicality.  The Cyclones rank 2nd in the entire country in adjusted defense, and they are a much better offensive team than the Cougars, who lack shooting.  They won't be able to keep up offensively in this one.

Iowa State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games this season.  The Cyclones are a combined 25-0 SU in home games, Big 12 Tournament games and NCAA Tournament games that have been played close to home this season.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

25* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina -3.5

This will feel like a home game for the North Carolina Tar Heels being played in Charlotte.  That's not being factored into this line enough.  The Tar Heels are 9-1 SU & 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overaall with a pair of wins over Duke both home and away this season.

The Tar Heels have no weaknesses.  They have two stud guards in RJ Davis (21.4 PPG) and Elliot Cadeau (7.3 PPG, 4.1 APG) who can both get to the rim whenever they want.  They have two stud big men in Armando Bacot (14.3 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 1.5 BPG) and Harrison Ingram (12.1 PPG, 8.9 RPG) and a sharp shooter in Cormac Ryan (11.3 PPG).

Michigan State was fortunate to get a bid into the NCAA Tournament.  The Spartans went 3-5 SU in their final eight games this season including home losses to Iowa and Ohio State.   They are prone to scoring droughts and are not the best shooting team.  They only make 12 FT per game and struggle to get to the rim as well.  Any droughts in this one and they are going to get run out of the building.

North Carolina is 7-0 ATS in its last seven NCAA Tournament games.  This line should at least be -6 in favor of the Tar Heels.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

20* Gonzaga/Kansas CBS No-Brainer on Gonzaga -3.5

Gonzaga made easy work of an upstart McNeese State team 86-65 and should still be fresh as a result.  The Bulldogs improved to 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  They upset both Kentucky and St. Mary's on the road during this stretch.

Kansas shot 60.3% from the field and still needed a blown foul call from the refs to put away a bad Samford team 93-89 as 7.5-point favorites in the opener.  It continued a trend of poor play to close the season as the Jayhawks are now 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.

Head coach Bill Self announced that Kevin McCullar Jr. will be out for the NCAA Tournament prior to it.  That leaves the Jayhawks very short-handed and this is a tough spot for them having to play their 2nd game in 3 days after needing to go to the wire to beat Samford on Thursday.  They went with basically a 6-man rotation against Samford and had four starters play anywhere from 35 to 39 minutes apiece.  They will wear down in the 2H as the Bulldogs pull away after intermission.

This will feel like a home game for the Bulldogs with it being played out West in Salt Lake City.  Kansas is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road/neutral games against good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  The Jayhawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after scoring 85 points or more.  Bet Gonzaga Saturday.

15* CBB Friday BLOWOUT on TCU -3

Utah State is 1-19 SU in its last 20 NCAA Tournament Games.  The Aggies had a successful regular season winning the MWC regular season title.  But they are reeling coming into the Big Dance, going 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They needed OT to beat Fresno State twice, only beat Air Force by 12 as 17.5-point home favorites, and lost by 16 to San Diego State in the MWC Tournament.

TCU went 6-4 ATS down the stretch with narrow losses to Texas Tech by 1 and UCF by 2.  They beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 Tournament opener and I just trust this team.  The Big 12 was the toughest conference in the country, so I can see some of these middling Big 12 teams doing well in the NCAA Tournament because they are so battle-tested.

Utah State suffered 5 of its 6 losses away from home this season including losses by 13 at New Mexico, by 14 at San Diego State and by 20 at Colorado State.  They also lost by 16 to SDSU on a neutral and by 14 at home to Nevada.  Utah State didn't face a single Power 5 team all season.  Their non-conference schedule could not have been much easier, and they beat Santa Clara by 2 and San Francisco by 1 in their two toughest non-conference games.  They also lost at Bradley.  I'd argue TCU will be the best team they have faced all season.

TCU has elite size on the interior that will help them match up well with Great Osobor, who is Utah State's best player.  The Horned Frogs also have great length on the wing to make life difficult on Utah State's overmatched guards, who will be at an athletic disadvantage.  The Horned Frogs are favored for good reason despite being the higher seed.  Utah State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog.  Bet TCU Friday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pacers/Warriors UNDER 240.5

The UNDER is 9-2 in Pacers last 11 games overall.  They aren't playing as fast as they were early in the season and they have been playing much better defense since trading for Pascal Siakam.  They rank 5th in defensive rating in their last seven games, and the shooting struggles of star PG Tyrese Haliburton in recent weeks have been widely documented.  He is 21-of-97 (21.7%) from 3 since the All-Star Break.

Both the Warriors and Pacers will be motivated to play good defense tonight.  The Pacers are trying to avoid the play-in round currently sitting in the 6th seed, and the Warriors are just trying to make the play-in round sitting just 2.5 games ahead of the 11th-place Rockets.  They also want to get home court for the play-in round sitting a half-game behind the Lakers for the 9th spot.

The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between the Pacers and Warriors with 240 or fewer combined points in six of those seven.  They have averaged 219.9 combined points per game at the end of regulation in those seven meetings, so we are have more than 20 points to spare here with this 240.5-point total.

Indiana is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games against teams that attempt 21 or fewer free throws per game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* James Madison/Wisconsin CBS Late-Night BAILOUT on James Madison +4.5

James Madison is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  The Dukes went 31-3 this season with their three losses coming to Appalachian State (twice) and Southern Miss.  Keep in mind Appalachian State beat Auburn earlier this season.

But what lets me know James Madison can play with Wisconsin is the fact that they went to Michigan State and upset the Spartans in East Lansing.  They won't be scared at all to face a Big Ten opponent like Wisconsin, and I like the fact that this game is being played in Brooklyn, NY so the Badgers likely won't have many fans there.  It's less than a 6 hour drive for James Madison fans and they will have the home-court advantage if anything.

Wisconsin is a tired team after having to play 4 games in 4 days including an OT game against Purdue in the semifinals.  They ran out of gas in the 2H against Illinois in the Championship Game and lost.  I don't think they'll be fully recovered in time for the Round of 64.  James Madison made easy work of its three opponents in the Sun Belt Tournament winning by a combined 42 points and has been off since March 11th.  The Dukes will be the much fresher team for this matchup.

James Madison is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 non-conference games.  The Dukes are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games against a team with a winning record.  I think the Dukes make the Sweet 16, and it starts with an upset win over Wisconsin Friday night.  Bet James Madison Friday.

15* Charleston/Alabama TruTV ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -9.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on Alabama.  The Crimson Tide have gone 3-4 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  But they faced an absolutely brutal schedule during this stretch with road losses to Kentucky and Florida (twice) as well as a home loss to Tennessee.  They also beat Arkansas and Florida at home while winning by 14 at Ole Miss.

When you consider that Alabama also face the likes of Ohio State, Clemson, Purdue, Creighton and Arizona in the non-conference, the Crimson Tide grade out as having faced the single-toughest schedule in the entire country.  To say they are battle-tested would be an understatement.  Now they have had a full week off since the loss to Florida in the SEC Tournament to rest.  They will be rejuvenated, and they are a fully healthy right now and a dangerous No. 4 seed.

The Crimson Tide get to take a big step down in class here against Charleston, which isn't as strong as it was a year ago.  The Cougars showed very poorly in non-conference.  They lost three consecutive games on a neutral to Duquesne by 18, Vermont by 9 and Wyoming by 7.  They also lost by 16 at Florida Atlantic.  It's also concerning Charleston needed OT to beat Stony Brook as a 10-point favorite in the CAA Championship Game.  Alabama will be by far the best team they have faced this season.

I love the matchup for the Crimson Tide because they attack the rim or shoot 3-pointers, and the Cougars were the 5th-worst team in the entire country in protecting the rim on close 2-pointers.  Alabama is going to get what it wants inside for 40 minutes.  Both teams love to run as Alabama ranks 11th in adjusted tempo and Charleston ranks 58th.  More possessions favors the better team and the favorite.  Charleston is actually much worse defensively than Alabama as the Cougars rank 175th in adjusted defense, largely because they cannot protect the rim.  

Alabama is 15-8 ATS as a favorite this season.  The Crimson Tide are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 games after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games.  Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Charleston) - off four or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS since 1997.    This is a very low spread for a 4/13 matchup and it really shows that we are getting to 'buy low' on the Crimson Tide.  Bet Alabama Friday.

20* NCAA Tournament TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Charleston/Alabama OVER 170.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 11th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in adjusted offense while having the worst defense of the Nate Oats era.  Alabama is 24-8 OVER in all games this season including 12-3 OVER in road games.

The OVER is 10-1 in Alabama's last 11 games overall with 175 or more combined points in nine of their last 10 games overall.  The Crimson Tide have scored at least 87 points in eight of their last nine games overall while allowing 88 or more points in seven of their last nine games.

Charleston also likes to run ranking 59th in adjusted tempo and 58th in adjusted offense while just 175th in adjusted defense.  The Cougars have elite guards and can dice up this Alabama defense just like every other team with elite guards has this season.  Alabama likes to get to the rim and will be up against a Charleston defense that is soft inside ranking 5th-to-last in the entire country in defending shots at the rim.

Charleston is 11-1 OVER in its last 11 road games off a close win by 3 points or less against a conference opponent.  This will likely be the highest scoring game of the entire opening round.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NCAA Tournament BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue -26.5

This is more of a fade of Grambling State than anything.  The SWAC ranks 33rd of 33 conferences according to KenPom.  One look at Grambling State's results in non-conference play and it's easy to see why.

In their first 13 games this season, the Tigers went 3-10 SU with their three wins coming against UNT Dallas, Champion Christian and Biblical Studies, who aren't even ranked in KenPom.  The 10 losses were absolutely laughable.  They included blowout losses by 32 to Colorado, by 55 to Iowa State, by 30 to Dayton and by 39 to Florida.

Now Grambling State has to face the best team they have faced yet in No. 1 seed Purdue.  It's also a highly motivated Boilermakers team after losing to Fairleigh Dickinson last year.  They won't take Grambling State lightly, and it's a very tough spot for the Tigers considering they had a 15-point 2H comeback against Montana State on Wednesday and had to go to OT in an 88-81 victory.

Grambling State was able to get to the rim against Montana State and take advantage of the undersized Bobcats in the 2H.  They won't be able to do that against Purdue, which ranks 45th in average height led by mountain Zach Edey inside.  The Boilermakers will force the Tigers to try and shoot over the top of them from 3.  Grambling State averages just five 3-point makes on 15 attempts per game.  It's just not their game, and the matchup is a terrible one for them.

Purdue is 8-2-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  That includes a 99-67 win over Texas Southern as 32-point favorites, which is a fellow SWAC team and ranked very similarly to Grambling State in KenPom.  Grambling State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that average 40 or more rebounds per game.  This line should be 30 or higher.  Bet Purdue Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Thunder/Raptors UNDER 231.5

The Toronto Raptors are without four of their top five scorers in Scottie Barnes (19.9 PPG), RJ Barrett (19.5 PPG), Immanuel Quickley (16.4 PPG) and Jacob Poeltl (11.1 PPG) tonight.  It's no wonder the Raptors are struggling to score without all these guys.  They have been held to 119 points or fewer in 10 consecutive games and an average of 105.6 points per game during this stretch.  The Raptors rank dead last (30th) in offensive rating in their last 10 games and just scored 89 points against the Kings last game.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 8-4 UNDER in their last 12 games overall.  They are no longer lighting up the scoreboard behind held to 119 or fewer points in eight of their last 11 games.  But they have bee  pretty elite defensively overall and of late, ranking 5th in defensive rating this season.  They will shut down the short-handed Raptors tonight.

Toronto is 22-12 UNDER in home games this season, including 19-8 UNDER in home games with a total of 220 or higher.  The Raptors are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine home games off a blowout loss by 15 points or more.  OKC should win in a blowout tonight, which means no late fouls and a low-scoring 4th quarter.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on New Mexico/Clemson OVER 151

New Mexico is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Lobos rank 8th in adjusted tempo and 42nd in adjusted offense.  They have arguably the best trio of guards in the entire country in House, Mashburn and Dent and can get whatever they want to offensively.

Clemson really struggles defending elite guards as Joseph Girard is a weakness defensively.  But he and this Clemson offense can light it up.  The Tigers rank 27th in adjusted offense, 37th in 2-point percentage and 8th in FT percentage.  They have the bigs in PJ Hall and Ian Schieffelin that are matchup nightmares for New Mexico, which lacks defensive bigs.

New Mexico is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games off four straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers.  Clemson is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games off two straight games with 12 or fewer assists.  The Tigers are 10-1 OVER in their last 11 games off two consecutive ATS losses.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on UAB +7

UAB can beat anyone when they are on their game.  The Blazers went 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games of the season beating Temple by 28 as 6.5-point road favorites, SMU by 4 as 1.5-point road favorites, and then made easy work of Wichita State by 12, USF by 10 and Temple by 16 en route to winning the AAC Tournament.

I think the AAC as a whole is better than it gets credit for which is a big reason why Florida Atlantic didn't run through it like everyone expected.  And UAB showed well in the non-conference, too.  They lost by 2 to Bradley, by 1 to Clemson, upset Maryland and upset Drake.  They can play with San Diego State.

I think San Diego State gets too much respect for making the run to the championship game last year.  They were in dog fights every game and were simply fortunate in close games.  They are the most over-seeded team from the Mountain West getting a No. 5 seed.  The rest of the Mountain West got the shaft, and we'll take advantage here and fade the over-seeded Aztecs.

San Diego State is a tired team after making the MWC Championship Game only to lose to New Mexico.  They needed OT to beat UNLV, and five of their last six games were decided by 8 points or fewer.  I question how much gas they have left in the tank.  I know it won't be enough to put away UAB by 7-plus points, especially since the Aztecs struggle to get easy buckets on offense and are a terrible 3-point shooting team, ranking 307th in 3-point percentage at 31.3%.

UAB is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games following a win.  The Blazers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 tournament games.  The Aztecs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after playing two consecutive games as favorites.  UAB is 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Blazers are 15-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  UAB is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  SDSU is 0-7 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season.

 The Aztecs haven't been nearly as good away from Viejas Arena going just 10-9 SU & 5-14 ATS in all games played away from home.  This is also a sleepy start time for a West coast team with a 1:45 EST which will be like a 10:45 AM body clock game for the Aztecs.  They aren't used to playing this early in the day.  The Blazers are used to playing at this time being in the East.  Bet UAB Friday.

15* NC State/Texas Tech CBS Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas Tech -5

NC State just won five games in five days to win the ACC Tournament.  Four of the five games were decided by single-digits, so it took everything they had and then some.  I question how much the Wolfpack have left in the tank for the NCAA Tournament, plus they get minimal rest having to play on Thursday instead of Friday.

Texas Tech went 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its final five games this season including double-digit wins over Baylor by 10 at BYU by 14.  The lone loss came to Houston, which is to be expected against the conference champs.  I think Texas Tech is an absolute sleeper in the NCAA Tournament and could make a run.

NC State takes a ton of bad shots from the mid range which is why they cannot be trusted.  Texas Tech is a great shooting team ranking 37th in the country in 3-point percentage (36.5%).  NC State ranks 246th defending the 3 allowing 34.8% from distance.  That makes this a great matchup for the Red Raiders, who are a couple notches better than NC State on offense and defense.

Texas Tech is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games against teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game in the 2nd half of the season.  NC State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Wolfpack's run comes to an abrupt end with a blowout loss to the Red Raiders tonight.  Bet Texas Tech Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Mavericks UNDER 237.5

The Utah Jazz have been playing without their top two scorers in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson.  They are struggling on offense to say the least scoring 107 or fewer points in four of thier last five games overall.  This total is too high for a game involving the Jazz right now in their current state.

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 4-1 UNDER in their last five games overall with 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in four of the five games.  This total is also too high for a game involving the Mavericks with the way they are playing right now.

Utah and Dallas have combined for 236 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 meetings.  That makes for a 9-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this inflated 237.5-point total.  Dallas is 7-0 UNDER in home games after covering four of its last five games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -3.5

The Houston Rockets have gone 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their only two losses came against two of the best teams in the West in covers in a 5-point loss at Phoenix as 8.5-point dogs and a 6-point loss to the Clippers as 6.5-point dogs.

The Rockets now have a legitimate shot to make the play-in and are fighting hard for it.  They are just 3 games back of the Warriors and 3.5 back of the Lakers for the final two spots.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and will keep their foot on the gas at home tonight against the Chicago Bulls.  The Rockets are 23-11 SU & 24-10 ATS at home this season.

The Bulls are stuck in no-man's land.  They are 4 games behind the 76ers for the 8th seed and 3.5 games ahead of the Hawks for the 9th.  They are going to be in the play-in, and the most likely is they will be the 9th.  They don't have the sense of urgency that the Rockets do right now.  They also have some serious injury questions with Patrick Williams out, and both Coby White and Alex Caruso questionable tonight.  They may take the cautious approach with those two given their position in the standings.

Houston is 12-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Rockets are 9-0 ATS in home games when revenging a same-season loss this season.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

20* NCAA Tournament DOG OF THE WEEK on McNeese State +6

McNeese State is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  The Cowboys went 30-3 this season including a 76-65 road win at VCU, an 81-60 road win at UAB and a 87-76 road win at Michigan in the non-conference.  VCU was one win from the Big Dance, UAB made the Big Dance, and Michigan was playing much better back when McNeese State beat them.

Gonzaga has taken a big step back this season.  The Bulldogs did not deserve a No. 5 seed.  They were just a bubble team prior to beating St. Mary's in the regular season finale.  They went on to lose to St. Mary's in the WCC Tournament.  The Bulldogs have a lot of defensive holes and they aren't a great shooting team.

One thing I love about McNeese State is they take care of the basketball and force turnovers.  The Cowboys rank 25th in turnover percentage on offense and 6th in turnover percentage on defense.  They also rank 7th in 3-point shooting, making 39.4% on the season as a team.  They have a lot of big-time transfers for head coach Will Wade, including TCU transfer Shahada Wells (17.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.0 SPG), who will be the best player on the court.  Bet McNeese State Thursday.