20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois -3

The Illinois Fighting Illini are way undervalued right now due to their 9-8 start to the season.  But they haven't been healthy all year, and they're finally starting to get healthy, so this team is going to be a good bet going forward.

The Illini returned their leading scorer in Kendrick Nunn last time out and showed what they were capable of.  They crushed Purdue 84-70 at home as 9.5-point underdogs, covering the spread by 23.5 points.  Now I look for them to roll Nebraska at home, too.

Nebraska has been a great home team in recent years, but an awful road team.  That has proven to be the case again this season as the Huskers are 1-3 in true road games with blowout losses to Villanova (by 24), Creighton (by 16) and Iowa (by 11).  Their only win came at lowly Rutgers.

The home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings since 2012.  Illinois is 4-0 SU in its last four home meetings with Nebraska during this stretch with wins by 12, 11, 7 and 5 points.

Nebraska is 2-9 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last two seasons.  The Huskers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games after scoring 80-plus points in two consecutive games.  Illinois is 9-1 ATS in home games off a home win over the last three seasons.  The Illini are 10-1 ATS after scoring 80-plus points over the last two seasons.  Bet Illinois Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Bowling Green +8.5

The Bowling Green Falcons are one of the best teams in the MAC this season.  There's no way they should be catching 8.5 points on the road to Eastern Michigan, a team I believe they are better than and that will show today.

The Falcons are 11-5 on the season, including 4-1 in their last five games overall.  They have beat Cleveland State on the road by 15, Oakland City by 31 at home, Miami Ohio by 11 at home, and Ohio by 16 on the road as 10-point dogs during this stretch.

Eastern Michigan is just 2-2 in its last four games with a 5-point home loss to lowly North Florida and a 17-point road loss to Northern Illinois.  The Eagles are simply getting too much respect for their 7-1 home record.  They don't have a good home win yet as their seven victories have come against Vermont, Siena Heights, Marygrove, Madonna, Rochester College, Detroit and Buffalo.

Bowling Green is 9-1 ATS vs. poor 3-point shooting teams who make 31% or less of their attempts over the last two seasons.  The Falcons are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games.  The Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The road team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Take Bowling Green Saturday.

15* Cavs/Rockets ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Houston +1

The Houston Rockets come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 5-0 in their last five games overall and looking for a 6th straight victory tonight, which they'll be motivated to get.  The Rockets have also gone 10-2 in their last 12 home games overall.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are in a very tough spot.  They are coming off a hard-fought 95-99 road loss at San Antonio last night, and now they'll be playing their 6th straight road game.  This second of a back-to-back situation is very tough, and they'll likely suffer a hangover from that defeat to the Spurs last night.

Houston has simply owned Cleveland in recent meetings.  Indeed, it is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in six meetings with the Cavaliers over the last three seasons.  The home team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  The Rockets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home meetings with the Cavaliers.

Cleveland is 1-11 ATS vs. teams who commit 16 or more turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  Houston is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. good rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  The Cavaliers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games playing on 0 days rest.  Roll with the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -1.5

This is a great spot to back to the Dallas Mavericks and a terrible one to put your money on the Chicago Bulls.  As a result, we'll back the Mavericks in a game that they just need to win to cover with this small 1.5-point spread.

The Mavericks are well-rested and ready to go.  They rested their starters in a blowout loss to Oklahoma City on Wednesday, so they've essentially had two days off in between games to get ready for the Bulls.

Chicago will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  Making matters worse for the Bulls is that they needed overtime to beat the 76ers last night, and 53 points from Jimmy Butler.  Butler and company will have nothing left in the tank tonight.  The Bulls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 0 days rest.

Plays against home underdogs (CHICAGO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Chicago is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 games following a road win.  Dallas is 8-0 ATS after trailing by 15 points or more at the half in its previous game over the last three seasons.  Take the Mavericks Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hawks/Bucks UNDER 210

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks.  This game won't come close to reaching 210 combined points Friday.

These teams are used to playing in low-scoring, defensive battle when they get together. Indeed, the UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 189, 183, 175 and 184 combined points.  That's an average of 182.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 27 points less than tonight's posted total of 210.

The UNDER is 20-7 in Hawks last 27 Friday games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -4

The San Francisco Dons are playing their best basketball of the season heading into this showdown with Loyola-Marymount.  There's no question in my mind that they are by far the superior team, and as a result we are getting them at a great value as only 4-point favorites.

San Francisco is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  It beat Pacific by 13 at home, Portland by 12 at home, and San Diego by 8 on the road.  Its two losses have come against arguably the two best teams in the WCC.  But it only lost by 8 at home to Gonzaga as 13.5-point dogs and by 10 on the road to BYU as 17-point dogs, proving that it can play with the two best teams in the conference.

Loyola-Marymount is 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  It has lost by 27 at Portland, by 23 at Gonzaga, by 3 at Pepperdine, by 25 at home to St. Mary's, and by 2 at home to Pacific during this stretch.  It's clear that this team isn't anywhere near the level of the Dons by those results.

Common opponents really tell the story here for me.  These teams have six games played against common opponents already.  San Francisco is 4-2 against those teams with a dead even scoring differential.  Loyola-Marymount is 2-4 against those six teams and getting outscored by 12.3 points per game against them.

The Dons are 7-3 at home this season, while the Lions are 2-7 on the road.  San Francisco is 14-4 SU in its last 18 home meetings with Loyola-Marymount.  The Lions are 1-8 ATS in their last nine conference games.  The Dons are 55-23-1 ATS in their last 79 conference games.  The Lions are 14-29 ATS in their last 43 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Dons are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with San Francisco Thursday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah -4.5

The Utah Utes will be playing with a sense of urgency tonight.  They are 12-4 on the season, but they have opened 1-2 in conference play.  That's not the end of the world considering all three of their conference games have been on the road up to this point.

Now the Utes return to their home court where they are 8-0 on the season and outscoring teams by an average of 25.7 points per game.  This is a Utah team that has beaten Duke on a neutral court, so we know what it is capable of.  The Utes have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country as they are 44-18-2 ATS in their last 62 home games.

Oregon has played well at home, but it has been a different story on the road.  Indeed, the Ducks have only played two true road games this season, and they lost both.  They lost 72-74 at Boise State as 2-point underdogs and 57-70 at Oregon State as 2-point favorites.  This team is getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight given those road results.

Oregon is 4-12 ATS after playing two consecutive home games over the last two years.   Utah is a perfect 9-0 ATS in January home games over the last three seasons.  The Ducks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. dominant rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 7-plus boards per game.  The home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  These last three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the Utes.  Take Utah Thursday.

20* Iowa/Michigan State ESPN GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State -6.5

The Michigan State Spartans (16-1) want revenge on the Iowa Hawkeyes, who handed them their only loss of the season in the Big Ten opener.  The Spartans lost that game on the road as 3-point underdogs, so they were expected to lose.  I took the Hawkeyes in that game and won, but now I'm jumping ship and backing the Spartans in this revenge spot.

The difference in this game will be the fact that the Spartans will be playing with their best player in Denzel Valentine.  He missed the first meeting with an injury, and his presence has been felt since he returned.  The Spartans just crushed Penn State 92-65 on the road last time out in his return.  He played just 23 minutes and scored 10 points, and after shaking off the rust, look for him to be even more effective in his second game back.

The Hawkeyes are simply overvalued right now due to their 3-0 start within the Big Ten.  They did pick up a big win at Purdue, but their other two wins have both come at home against Nebraska and Michigan State sans Valentine.  I just don't believe the Hawkeyes are going to be able to match the intensity level of the Spartans in this one, and I look for them to get blown out the building.

Michigan State is a perfect 14-0 SU & 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home meetings with Iowa dating back to 1997.  Iowa is 3-12 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 7-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  Michigan State is 35-11 ATS in its last 46 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.  The Spartans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.  Bet Michigan State Thursday.

15* Raptors/Magic Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Orlando +4

The Orlando Magic are in desperate need of a victory.  They have lost five of their last six games overall to fall to 20-18 on the season.  This is still one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, and I look for them to lay it all on the line to get a victory today against the Toronto Raptors.

I believe getting away for a few days and visiting London will do the Magic a lot of good here to help them get out of this brief funk.  Meanwhile, the Toronto Raptors come in overvalued due to having won three straight games.  They won't be as focused as the Magic for this game, and they will enjoy themselves in London because they are playing better coming in.

But the Raptors' three-game winning streak has come against the Nets, Wizards and 76ers, so it's nothing to brag about.  Also, the Raptors are still missing a key starter in DeMarre Carroll, who is out indefinitely with a knee injury.  The Magic are 1-0 against the Raptors this season with a 92-87 home victory as 6-point dogs in their first and only meeting.

Orlando is an incredible 10-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in.  Plays on any team (ORLANDO) - off a home loss against a division rival against opponent off a win against a division rival are 44-16 (73.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.  Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage of .600 or better.  Bet the Magic Thursday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Boise State -4.5

I believe the Boise State Broncos are the best team in the Mountain West this season.  They have gotten off to a 12-4 start and are well on their way to winning the conference title.  Head coach Leon Rice continues to do a tremendous job with this program.

The Broncos are a perfect 9-0 in their last nine games overall with road wins at Portland (81-71) and at Utah State (76-61).  They have also beaten Oregon, Colorado State and Fresno State at home during this stretch to highlight some of their victories.

Nevada (10-6) is no better than a middle-of-the-pack team in the Mountain West.  The Wolf Pack have really struggled of late against the best teams that they've played.  They've lost three of their last five games coming in with a 69-98 blowout to Wichita State, a 76-88 blowout to New Mexico, and a 63-85 blowout to Fresno State.  Their only wins have come against Wyoming (by 3) and Air Force.

Boise State crushed Nevada 78-46 in their only meeting last season.  The Broncos are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after scoring 80 points or more.  Boise State is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 vs. Mountain West foes.  The Wlf Pack are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games.  Nevada is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games and 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win.  Roll with Boise State Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2

The Boston Celtics are desperate for a win tonight.  They have lost four straight and six of thier last seven games overall with all six losses coming by single-digits.  So, they aren't playing poorly, they are simply coming up short in close games.

Both teams will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight.  But I believe that favors the Celtics, who are one of the deepest teams in the NBA and are built for these situations.  Plus, this will only be the 3rd game in 6 days for the Celtics, while this will be the 4th game in 6 days for the Pacers.

The home team has won five of the last seven meetings between these teams.  The Pacers are just 9-11 on the road this season, clearly playing their best basketball at home, where they are 13-5.  This will be the Celtics' first home game following a 3-game road trip, so they'll be glad to be back in front of their home fans in Boston.

Boston is 9-1 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 41-23 ATS in their last 64 games off two straight losses by 6 points or less.  The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on 0 days rest.  The Celtics are 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 games playing on 0 days rest.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston +10

The Houston Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  Head coach Kelvin Sampson welcomed back four starters this year, and it has led to a 13-2 season up to this point.

The Cougars have really upped their place in AAC play.  They are 3-0 within the conference with a 73-67 win at South Florida, a 77-50 win at Temple as 6-point dogs, and a 63-45 home win over Tulane.  This team is simply rolling right now, yet they are getting no respect from oddsmakers.

Cincinnati is 12-5 on the season.  This team hasn't shown me enough to warrant being 10-point favorites over this solid Houston outfit in what I believe to be a very evenly-matched game.  The Bearcats have lost three of their last five games, including home losses to both Iowa State and Temple.  They also barely beat South Florida 54-51 on the road last time out as 15.5-point favorites.

Cincinnati is just 1-8 ATS when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last three seasons.  The Bearcats are 1-8 ATS vs. good defensive teams who allow 42% or less shooting this season.  The Cougars are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Houston is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. AAC opponents.  The Bearcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Take Houston Wednesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State -3.5

We are getting the Kansas State Wildcats at a tremendous price today as only 3.5-point home favorites over the Texas Tech Red Raiders.  We'll take advantage and back the Wildcats, who are highly motivated for their first Big 12 victory of the season after three close calls.

Indeed, the Wildcats are 0-3 within the conference with a 4-point home loss to WVU, a 3-point road loss at Texas, and a 10-point road loss at Oklahoma as 12.5-point dogs.  But the Wildcats are 7-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.3 points per game.  They have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.

The Red Raiders are getting a lot of love because they played both Iowa State and Kansas reasonably tough in their last two games.  But after an easy schedule to start the season, their true colors are starting to show, and they clearly aren't as good as their 11-3 record would indicate.  That will show again here tonight.

Kansas State has owned Texas Tech, going 10-1 SU in the last 11 meetings with all 10 victories coming by 4 points or more.  The Wildcats are 6-0 in their last six home meetings with the Red Raiders with all six wins coming by 7 points or more.  K-State is 7-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% or less shooting this season.  The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS vs. teams with winning records this season.   The Red Raiders are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games.  The home team is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  Roll with Kansas State Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +7

The San Antonio Spurs will be playing the second of a back-to-back after their win in Brooklyn last night.  They are at a disadvantage here in the rest department against the Pistons, who will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  The Pistons have had two days off in between games since last beating the Nets on Saturday.

The Pistons come into this game playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating Orlando by 26 at home, Brooklyn by 14 at home, and Boston by 5 on the road.  Yet they are getting no respect from oddsmakers here as 7-point home underdogs.

The San Antonio Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They have gone 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall to make the betting public a ton of money.  The public is going to continue to back them, and oddsmakers know this, which forces them to shade the line in the Spurs' favor.  That creates artificial line value for us to pounce on the Pistons here.

Detroit is 12-9 SU & 13-8 ATS in its last 21 home meetings with San Antonio.  It has won two of its last three home meetings with San Antonio outright as underdogs.  The Pistons are 13-4 ATS in all home games this season, outscoring opponents by 8.1 points per game at home.  Detroit is 7-0 ATS in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or fewer fouls per game this season.  The Pistons are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 home games dating back to last year.  Take the Pistons Tuesday.

25* NBA Atlantic Division GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics Money Line -103

The Boston Celtics will be more motivated for a victory tonight than they have been at any other point in the season.  They have last three straight and five of their last six coming in, including a blown 20-point lead in a 98-101 loss at Memphis on Sunday.  They are clearly going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight.

The New York Knicks are playing very well, winners of four of their last five coming in.  But this team is starting to become overvalued, and this recent run has them content with how they are playing at the moment.  They aren't going to want this win as much as the Celtics, and as a result won't be able to match their intensity level.

The Celtics have owned the Knicks, going 4-0 SU in the last four meetings with wins by 9, 4, 21 and 11 points.  The road team has actually won four of the last six meetings, too, so home-court advantage has meant very little when these Atlantic Division rivals have gotten together.

Boston is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after having lost 5 or 6 of its last 7 games coming in.  The Celtics are 13-1 ATS int heir last 14 road games after allowing 100 points or more in two consecutive games coming in.  Boston is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 road games after playing two consecutive road games coming in.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Bowling Green +10.5

The Bowling Green Falcons are simply catching too many points tonight against the Ohio Bobcats.  I'll gladly back them as double-digit underdogs in a game that they can win outright.  We'll just take the points for some added insurance.

The reason this line is so high is because Bowling Green (10-5) is coming off one of its worst performances of the season in a 67-79 home loss to Central Michigan.  The Falcons had won three straight games by double-digits prior to that defeat, so they aren't broken after one bad game.

Ohio (10-4) hasn't shown me anything to warrant being a double-digit favorite here.  It has a 5-point home win over Jackson State, a 7-point home win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, an 11-point loss at Northern Illinois, and a 6-point home win over Ball State in four of its last five games coming in.

The Falcons owned the Bobcats in both meetings last season, winning 76-65 as 4-point road favorites and 69-54 as 7.5-point home favorites.  There's no way they should be double-digit dogs a year later in their first meeting of 2015.

The Falcons are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games.  Bowling Green is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bobcats are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 MAC games.  The Bobcats are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Falcons are 6-0 ATS after playing two consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Bowling Green Tuesday.

15* Miami/Virginia ACC No-Brainer on Virginia -5

The Virginia Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight when they host the Miami Hurricanes.  The Cavaliers have lost back-to-back road games at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, and now they'll be looking to avoid their first 3-game skid in nearly five years.  I like their chances to get back on track at home tonight.

Virginia has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.  It is 12-0 in its last 12 home games, including 7-0 this season.  It is outscoring opponents by an average of 16.4 points per game at home this year.

There's no question that Miami is a quality team with its 13-1 record, but there's also no denying that it has benefited from an easy schedule.  In fact, the Hurricanes have only played on true road game all season.  That resulted in a lackluster 77-72 win at Nebraska, and the Cornhuskers are one of the worst teams in the Big Ten this season.

Virginia clearly matches up well with Miami.  It won 89-80 on the road as 6.5-point favorites last year, and 65-40 at home as 10.5-point favorites in 2014.  The Cavaliers are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 home games off an upset loss as a favorite.  Virginia is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Cavaliers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss.  Bet Virginia Tuesday.

15* Heat/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami +13.5

The Golden State Warriors come into this game overvalued for a number of reasons.  They own the best record in the league at 35-2, and the betting public has made a killing off of them as they've gone 23-13 ATS.  They are coming off a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS road trip against Western Conference bottom feeders in the Lakers, Blazers and Kings as well.

The Miami Heat are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference at 22-15 on the season.  They have won four of their last six coming in while going 4-2 ATS in the process.  They are certainly capable of staying within this massive 13.5-point spread, which I believe to be too much tonight.

The Heat are coming off a poor performance in an 83-98 loss at Utah on Saturday, and that result has them undervalued as well.  I would be shocked if it wasn't due to them looking ahead to this game against the Warriors.  Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic and company are all relishing the opportunity to go at the defending champs tonight and will bring max effort as a result.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - after a blowout loss by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Heat Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Bulls UNDER 207.5

A lot is being made of the Bulls scoring at least 100 points in 10 consecutive games.  As a result, their totals are going to be inflated in the near future, including tonight against the Wizards.  I believe the value is now with the UNDER 207.5 tonight.

The Wizards haven't exactly been offensive juggernauts here of late with all of the injuries they are dealing with, including the one to star SG Bradley Beal, who remains out.  The Wizards have scored 91 or fewer points in four of their last seven games.  But they have been playing good defense, limiting eight of their last 10 opponents to 99 or fewer points.

The recent history between these teams justifies this play on the UNDER 207.5.  They have combined for 204 or fewer points in 25 consecutive meetings! That's a perfect 25-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set.  They have averaged 183.7 combined points per game in their last six meetings, which is 24 points less than this total.  Enough said.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/76ers OVER 203.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers have become the offensive juggernaut that most thought they'd be when having Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love and Lebron James healthy at the same time.  They have simply been rolling since Irving returned from injury a few games back.

Indeed, the Cavaliers have scored 104, 122, 121 and 125 points in their last four games, respectively.  That's an average of 118.0 points per game.  I expect them to flirt with that average again today against the lowly Philadelphia 76ers.

The 76ers have been trying to play at a faster tempo this season, especially since hiring Mike D'Antoni.  They rank 5th in pace at 99.8 possessions per game this season.  The results have been better on offense, but their defense has been atrocious as they've allowed 104-plus points in 11 of their last 14 games overall.  They have given up 108, 126 and 130 points in three of their last four.

The OVER is 11-3 in Cavaliers last 14 games when playing on one days' rest.  The OVER is 12-4 in 76ers 16 home games this season.  The OVER is 8-0 in 76ers last eight games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The OVER is 9-1-1 in 76ers last 11 games following a loss overall.  The OVER is 20-7 in 76ers last 27 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2

The Boston Celtics are primed for a big performance today.  They have lost two straight and four of their last five coming in, so they're motivated for a victory.  Plus, they have had two days off in between games having last played on Thursday, so they are well-rested and ready to go.

The Celtics are now at full strength as PG Avery Bradley is expected to return from a hip injury.  The same cannot be said for the Memphis Grizzlies, who are expected to be without their starting backcourt in PG Mike Conley and SG Courtney Lee.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 94-54 (63.5%) ATS since 1996.

Boston is 12-2 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of its last 6 games over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games overall.  The Grizzlies are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Detroit +7.5

The Detroit Titans have been awful on the road, but they've been a juggernaut at home this season.  They've gone a perfect 9-0 at home, outscoring teams by an average of 15.2 points per game.  I love the proposition of getting them as nice-sized home underdogs here to Valpo.

Detroit is certainly one of the best offensive teams in the country.  It is scoring 85.4 points per game overall, including 91.3 points per game on 49.6% shooting at home.  This team is going to be able to score on Valpo today.

All three of Valpo's losses this season have come on the road.  They lost 85-81 at Belmont, 67-73 at Oregon and 69-66 at Ball State, and they only beat Oregon State by 6 and Indiana State by 6 on the road, so they are vulnerable away from home.  We saw that last year as well as Detroit beat Valpo 63-60 at home as 4.5-point dogs.

Detroit is 8-0 ATS in home games off a home win over the last two seasons.  The Titans are 7-0 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three years.  Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game.  The underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.  These four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Titans.  Roll with Detroit Sunday.

25* WCC GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco +18

This is my favorite play in the WCC for the entire 2015-16 season.  This is a massive lookahead spot for BYU, which faces Gonzaga in its next game.  It will just be going through the motions to try and beat San Francisco today and not giving the kind of effort it's going to take to put away the Dones by 18-plus points.

San Francisco comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  It is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall with a 13-point win over Pacific, a 12-point win over Portland, and an 8-point road win at San Diego.  Its only loss came at home to Gonzaga by 8 points as 13.5-point dogs, so it has already proven it can play with the best team in this conference.

One thing that really stood out to me was how tough San Francisco has played BYU on the road in recent years.  The Dons are 3-0 ATS in their last three trips to BYU.  They lost by 4 as 13-point road dogs last year, lost by 5 as 11.5-point dogs two years ago, and won by 12 outright as 14.5-point dogs three years ago.  The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.

The Dons are 98-58 ATS in their last 156 conference road games.  The Dons are 54-23-1 ATS in their last 78 WCC games overall.  San Francisco is 35-16-1 ATS in its last 52 road games.  The Cougars are 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  Bet San Francisco Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

I successfully backed the Orlando Magic in an 83-77 win at Brooklyn last night as 4-point favorites, and I'm backing them again tonight for many of the same reasons.  This team is motivated following a 4-game losing streak, and they are undervalued due to that streak as well.

Adding to the Magic's motivation tonight is the fact that they are 0-3 against Washington in three meetings this season.  They lost by 12 and 9 on the road, and by just 1 at home.  They will be hungry to avoid the season sweep, and I like their chances of getting a victory here with the way the Wizards are playing right now.

Indeed, Washington is 1-5 in its last six games overall.  That includes a 19-point home loss to the Clippers and a 22-point home loss to the Heat.  The Wizards are still playing without star SG Bradley Beal, which is the biggest reason for their struggles.  Their injury list remains long, and they aren't playing up to their potential as a result.  They lost 97-88 at home to the Raptors last night, so they are playing the second of a back-to-back as well, which hurts them more because they are short-handed, while the Magic are a deep team.

The Wizards are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on 0 days' rest, while the Magic are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 0 days' rest.  The Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Orlando is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS win.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Roll with the Magic Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State +8.5

The Miami Hurricanes are way overvalued right now due to their 12-1 start to the season.  They have covered five of their last six against the spread, so the betting public is all over them.  But they have certainly benefited from playing an easy schedule here of late as their last six opponents have been Charlotte, Florida, College of Charleston, LaSalle, Princeton and Syracuse with none of those being true road games.  It's simply time to fade the Hurricanes.

The Florida State Seminoles come in highly motivated for a victory in this rivalry game.  They have opened 0-2 in ACC play with a 75-84 loss at Clemson and a 90-106 home loss to North Carolina in a game that was close until the final 10 minutes.  They will be playing with a little extra edge here today to try and get their first ACC victory.  This is still a quality team at 10-4 and one that will be a force in the ACC the rest of the way.

But what really stands out to me is the closely-contested nature of this series.  Indeed, each of the last three meetings have been decided by 4 points or less.  The Seminoles haven't lost to the Hurricanes by more than 6 points in any of the last five meetings.  So given the close nature of this series, getting 8.5 points is a ton of value.  Plus, the Seminoles are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.

Florida State is 10-1 ATS off a home loss over the last three seasons, including a perfect 9-0 ATS off a home loss to a conference opponent.  Miami is 0-8 ATS in home games after scoring 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last three seasons.  The Seminoles are 7-0 ATS when the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last three seasons.  FSU is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a double-digit home loss.  These five trends combine for a 40-1 system backing the Seminoles.  Take Florida State Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +13

The Oklahoma Sooners are in a massive hangover spot Saturday.  They are coming off a triple-overtime loss at Kansas on Monday, and it's going to be hard for them to come back and give the kind of effort they played with in that game to try and pull off the upset, only to come up short.

Kansas State is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Bruce Weber has this team playing some great basketball this year.  The Wildcats are 10-4 with all four of their losses coming by 10 points or less to some very good teams.  They lost by 10 to North Carolina on a neutral court, by 10 to Texas A&M on the road, by 4 at home to West Virginia, and by 3 at Texas.

But what really stands out is that Kansas State has had Oklahoma's number in recent years.  Indeed, the Wildcats are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Sooners despite being underdogs in three of those.  Thy won both meetings last year with a 66-63 road win as 12-point dogs, and a 59-56 home win as 3.5-point dogs.

The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% or less shooting this season.  K-State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team that wins more than 80% of its games.  The Wildcats are 14-5 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  K-State is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Sooners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big 12 opponents.  Roll with Kansas State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Vanderbilt +4

The Vanderbilt Commodores are highly motivated for a victory Saturday when they travel to face the unbeaten South Carolina Gamecocks.  The Commodores have opened 0-2 in SEC play with an 8-point home loss to LSU and an overtime road loss to Arkansas.  They want to right the ship in a hurry.

I like their chances to get in the win column in SEC play Saturday because I still believe this is one of the best teams in the conference.  But they have lost a lot of close games here of late as five of their six losses have come by 8 points or less.

A big reason has been because they've been without one of their best players in Luke Kornet (9.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.6 bpg) for five games.  But Kornet returned against Arkansas last game and had 11 points and 8 rebounds.  His presence will be huge against South Carolina, and going forward.

South Carolina is certainly a feel-good story up to this point with its 14-0 start, but it has come against an extremely soft schedule.  The Gamecocks have only had to play two true road games this season and they haven't faced a ranked opponent all year.  They will be exposed for what they are, which is just a middle-of-the-pack SEC team,   against the best team they've faced in Vanderbilt.

Vanderbilt is 44-26 ATS in its last 70 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  The Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss.  Vanderbilt is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Commodores are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS loss.  Roll with Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bowling Green -1

The Bowling Green Falcons are arguably the best team in the MAC this season.  They are off to a 10-4 start this year, which includes a 6-1 home record.  They are outscoring opponents by 12.6 points per game at home this year.

Central Michigan is just 7-7 and has had some very suspect performances this season.  It has losses to Weber State (by 3), Western Kentucky (by 28), Grand Canyon (by 3) and Eastern Michigan (by 19).  It also has ugly home wins over McNeese State (by 1) and Texas Southern (by 8).

But the most important stat going against the Chippewas is the fact that they are 0-6 in all road games this season.  Their defense has been horrible away from home as they are giving up 82.7 points per game and 48.7% shooting to opponents.  They just gave up 66% shooting in their 99-80 home loss to Eastern Michigan on Wednesday, so defense clearly is not a priority for them.  The Falcons have only allowed 55.0 points per game during their 3-game winning streak coming in.

Bowling Green is 6-0 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  The Falcons are 26-13 ATS in their alst 29 games overall.  The Chippewas are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games, and 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Take Bowling Green Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida -3.5

This is a massive letdown spot for the LSU Tigers.  They are coming off a huge 85-67 home win on National TV against #9 Kentucky on Tuesday.  There's no question they have been getting patted on the back over the last few days leading up to this game, and it will go to their heads, and they will not show up with the same intensity against Florida Saturday.

At the same time, this is a great spot to back the Gators.  They are coming off a bad 69-83 road loss at Tennessee on Wednesday, so they'll be highly motivated to get back in the win column when they return home, where they were last seen crushing Georgia 77-63 as 8-point favorites to open SEC play.

The Gators are 6-1 at home this season, outscoring teams by 21.5 points per game.  The Tigers are 1-4 in all road games this season, giving up 84.2 points per game away from home.  Florida has won four of its last five home meetings with LSU with all four victories coming by 12 points or more.

The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a straight up loss.  Johnny Jones is 4-12 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more as the coach of LSU.  Take Florida Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee +5

The Tennessee Vols are a much better team than their 8-6 record would indicate.  Their six losses have all come on the road to Georgia Tech (by 2), George Washington (by 3), Nebraska (by 11), Butler (by 8), Gonzaga (by 7) and Auburn (by 6).

So, they've shown that they can play with the likes of George Washington, Butler and Gonzaga, which says all that you need to know about this team.  The Vols really showed what they were capable of when they beat Florida 83-69 at home on Wednesday.  They improved to 8-0 at home this season with that huge victory.

Texas A&M is overrated due to playing a home-heavy schedule.  It has played just two true road games this season.  One was a 54-67 upset loss at Arizona State as 3.5-point favorites, and the other was a narrow 61-60 road win at Mississippi State as 7-point favorites Wednesday night.  The Aggies shouldn't be favored on the road against the Vols today based off those two performances, especially considering the Vols haven't lost at home this year.

One of my favorite trends that I always look for with Tennessee is that it is 32-9 ATS in its last 41 games as a home underdog or pick 'em.  Better yet, the Vols are 27-6 ATS in their last 33 games as a home underdog of 6 points or less, and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +14

The San Antonio Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They have gone a league-best 26-11 ATS in all games this season, and their 21-0 SU & 16-5 ATS home mark has the betting public all over them.  The Spurs have covered 12 of their last 14 games ATS as well.

The New York Knicks continue getting no respect from oddsmakers tonight despite playing their best basketball of the season coming in.  They've gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are 2-2 straight up in their last four meetings with the Spurs, not once losing by more than 14 points.

Their recent run includes a 12-point home win over Detroit as 1.5-point dogs, a 14-point home win over Atlanta as 4.5-point dogs, a 6-point road win over Atlanta as 7.5-point dogs, and an 8-point road win at Miami as 7.5-point dogs.  This team is playing with a ton of confidence right now and feeling like it can compete with San Antonio.

New York is 17-8 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent this season.  The Knicks are 8-1 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.  Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) - good defensive team - allowing 91 or fewer points/game on the season, after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game are 36-14 (72%) ATS since 1996.  The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the Knicks Friday.

15* Cavs/T'Wolves ESPN Friday No-Brainer on OVER 196

With Kyrie Irving back in the lineup, the Cleveland Cavaliers have become the explosive offensive team that we all thought they'd be.  They have scored 104, 122 and 121 points in their last three games overall for an average of 115.7 points per game.

Look for the Cavs to put up another big number against the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight to mostly take care of this OVER by themselves.  The T'Wolves have allowed 101 or more points in 13 of their last 18 games overall.

The last three meetings between the Cavs and T'Wolves have all seen at least 196 combined points.  They have combined for 196, 229 and 219 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 214.7 points per game, which is roughly 19 points more than this 196-point total.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (98-102 PPG), after scoring 80 points or less are 36-11 (76.6%) since 1996.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -4.5

The Orlando Magic are extremely motivated for a win tonight.  They have lost four straight coming in with three of those coming on the road.  Look for them to give max effort to try and end this skid, and for it to be enough to beat the lowly Brooklyn Nets.

The Nets are in a world of hurt right now.  They have gone just 3-10 in their last 13 games overall, and the injuries are starting to pile up.  They just lost starting PG Jarrett Jack to a season-ending ACL injury.  They have proceeded to get blown out 94-103 by Boston and 74-91 to Toronto, both at home, in their two games without him.

The Magic have owned the Nets in two meetings this season.  They won 105-82 on the road and 100-93 at home.  The Magic have been a solid road team this season as they've gone 10-6-1 ATS in their 17 road games.

Orlando is 9-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of its last 7 games against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Magic are 31-17 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog over the last two years.  The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Nets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois +13.5

The Michigan State Spartans have looked pedestrian without their best player in Denzel Valentine, who will miss this game as well.  They needed overtime to beat Oakland on a neutral court, lost by 13 at Iowa, and had a hard-fought 69-61 win over a sub-.500 Minnesota team in their last three games without him.

Illinois has proven that it is not intimidated by facing the Spartans at the Breslin Center.  In fact, the Fighting Illini have won each of their last two trips to Michigan State.  They won 59-54 as 9.5-point road underdogs last season, and 53-46 as 12.5-point road dogs in 2014.

Illinois had won five straight games before opening 0-2 in Big Ten play.  But they lost by 10 to Michigan and by 2 at Ohio State, so they have been competitive to open conference play.  Now the Fighting Illini will be extra motivated to get that first Big Ten victory.  While they may not get it, it's certainly reasonable to think that they'll stay within 13 points of the Spartans tonight.

The Fighting Illini are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games coming in.  Illinois is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Fighting Illini are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six trips to Michigan State.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Illinois Thursday.

20* Celtics/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Boston +6.5

The Boston Celtics are highly motivated for a victory after losing three of their last four games coming in.  They were outscored in the fourth quarter by 14 points by the Pistons last night to lost 94-99, and now they'll certainly come back playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight.

The Chicago Bulls come into this game overvalued because they have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, four of which have come at home.  It's  now time to fade them as they are simply laying too many points to the Celtics tonight.

Boston has been better on the road than it has been at home.  It is 10-6 SU & 11-5 ATS in road games this season, outscoring teams 103.1 to 99.1 on average.  In fact, the Celtics are 7-2 SU in their last nine road games with their only losses coming to the Piston (by 3) and Spurs (by 3).  So they haven't lost by more than 3 points in any of their last nine road games.

The Celtics are 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last two seasons.  Boston is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage of .600 or better.  The Celtics are 37-14-1 ATS in their last 52 games playing on 0 days rest.  Boston is 39-19 ATS in its last 58 road games.  The Bulls are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.  Bet the Celtics Thursday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Troy State +11.5

The Georgia State Panthers made some noise in the NCAA Tournament last year due to the heroics of RJ Hunter, who is now gone.  They are now overvalued after that recognition as they only brought back one starter from that team.

Georgia State has gotten off to an 8-3 start this season, but it has been far from impressive.  Its best wins have come at home against Old Dominion (by 4) and Middle Tennessee (by 2).  This team is simply laying too many points here tonight.

Troy is only 5-8, but I have been impressed with how well this team has played on the road this season.  It is 1-2 in true road games with a 12-point win over North Texas, a 9-point loss at Seton Hall as 15.5-point underdogs, and a 3-point loss at Ole Miss as 3-point dogs.  To compare, Georgia State lost by 9 at Ole Miss as 6.5-point dogs earlier this year.  Seven of the Trojans' eight losses this season have come by 9 points or less.

The Trojans have played the Panthers very tough on the road in recent meetings.  They lost 72-77 as 19.5-point rod dogs last year and 72-81 as 16-point dogs in 2014.  The Trojans are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Trojans are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.  The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Troy is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games off two consecutive home losses.  Take Troy Thursday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State +20

San Jose State was one of the worst teams in college basketball last year.  But this is now one of the most improved teams in the land in 2015-16.  The Spartans are 5-9 and fully capable of staying within 20 points of the San Diego State Aztecs, who haven't been as good as in year's past.

All nine of San Jose State's losses this season have come by 20 points or fewer.  That includes a 7-point loss at Air Force as 9-point road dogs and an 18-point loss at Marquette as 21.5-point dogs.  Considering the Spartans have played 14 games this season and haven't lost by more than 20 once, that's a 14-0 system backing them based on this 20-point spread.

San Diego State likely won't be going to the NCAA Tournament this season.  It is just 9-6 on the year with some ugly losses and wins this year.  It lost to West Virginia by 22 on a neutral court, and it was also upset at home by both Arkansas-Little Rock (by 6) as 16.5-point favorites and Grand Canyon (by 7) in a game that didn't even have a line.

SDSU is 5-15 ATS when playing its 2nd game in a week over the last two seasons.  The Aztecs are 1-8 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (SAN DIEGO ST) - a good team (+3.5 to +8 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG differential), after 3 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet San Jose State Wednesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +7

Mississippi State is a team that I've had my eye on all season.  This is a squad that returned four starters from last year under the guidance of first-year head coach Ben Howland, who took UCLA to three straight Final Fours back in his prime.

As I expected, the Bulldogs have been undervalued all season as they've gone 7-2 ATS in their nine lined games.  They've been an especially profitable bet at home by going 5-1 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season.  They are coming off three straight blowout wins over Tulane (by 10), Northern Colorado (by 24) and NC Central (by 23) and are chomping at the bit to play their first SEC game in front of their home crowd tonight.

Texas A&M is a highly ranked team this season and it is overvalued as a result of its 11-2 start.  While the Aggies have played some tough teams, they have actually only played one true road game all season.  That ended in a 54-67 upset loss at Arizona State as 3.5-point favorites.

Mississippi State is 7-0 ATS as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points since 1997.  Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS in road games when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last three years.  These three trends combine for a 22-0 system backing the Bulldogs.  Roll with Mississippi State Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Timberwolves OVER 202

This is a battle between two bad teams in the Denver Nuggets (12-23) and Minnesota Timberwolves (12-23) with identical awful records.  Look for defense to be optional tonight as this game sails way OVER this 202-point total set.

That's usually the case when these teams get together, anyways.  The first two meetings this season have seen 212 and 219 combined points, respectively.  Dating back further, 9 of the last 11 meetings between these teams have seen 205 or more combined points.  The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Minnesota.

The Nuggets have been playing in a ton of high-scoring games here of late.  The OVER is 3-0 in their last three games with combined scores of 213, 219 and 218 points.  Now they are expected to get rookie PG Emmanuel Mudiay back in the lineup tonight and will be even more potent on the offensive end.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MINNESOTA) - cold team - having lost 15 or more of their last 20 games against opponent cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games are 39-17 (69.6%) over the last five seasons.  The OVER is 5-0 in Nuggets last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The OVER is 4-1 in Timberwolves last five vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on UMass +14.5

The Dayton Flyers are way overvalued here as 14.5-point home favorites over the UMass Minutemen.  The Flyers have won four in a row coming in, but they have been far from impressive in doing so.

Three of the four wins have come at home over Furman (by 20), Miami Ohio (by 1) and Arkansas (by 4), with the lone road win coming at Duquesne (by 7).  Don't forget that the Flyers lost to UT-Chattanooga (by 2) at home as 12.5-point favorites in their game prior to this 4-game winning streak.

UMass is starting to play better with wins in three of its last four games overall.  This is a team that puts up 79.2 points per game against teams that only give up 72.6 points per game, so it is a very good offensive unit.  UMass has actually won two of its last three meetings with Dayton with all three decided by 10 points or less.

Dayton is 0-6 ATS off a game where it made 20% or fewer of its 3-point shots over the last three seasons.  The Flyers are 8-17 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two years.  Dayton is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  The Flyers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  Take UMass Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan -2.5

This is a very generous price to get the Central Michigan Chippewas at Wednesday as they host the Eastern Michigan Eagles.  This is a CMU team that is undervalued right now because it hasn't lived up to expectations after returning all five starters from last season.

While the Chippewas have struggled on the road this year, they've been untouchable at home.  In fact, the they are a perfect 7-0 at home this season, outscoring teams by 15.7 points per game.  Now they take on an EMU team that is just 2-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in road games this season.

With all five starters back for Central Michigan, it's important to note that it crushed Eastern Michigan in both meetings last season.  Indeed, it won 65-51 at home and 72-56 on the road, winning by an average of 15.0 points per game.  Another blowout victory in the Chippewas' favor can be expected in their first meeting of 2016.

Eastern Michigan is 28-46 ATS in its last 74 games as a road dog of 6 points or less.  The Eagles are 18-35 ATS in their last 53 vs. good offensive teams who score 77-plus points per game.  EMU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Wednesday games.  The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet Central Michigan Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference Total ANNIHILATOR on Knicks/Hawks UNDER 203

The New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks are very familiar with one another to say the least.  In fact, this will be the 2nd time in 3 days that they square off, and their 4th and final meeting of the season.  This familiarity will lead to a low-scoring game tonight as both teams know each other's tendencies by now.

The Knicks prefer to play at a slow pace as they rank 23rd in pace at 96.5 possessions per game.  The Knicks also rank just 22nd in offensive efficiency at 100.9 points per 100 possessions.  The Hawks are 10th in defensive efficiency, giving up 101.2 points per 100 possessions.

Atlanta is 12-3 to the UNDER in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last two seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 50-22 (69.4%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse -5

The Syracuse Orange will be highly motivated for their first ACC win of the season tonight when they host the Clemson Tigers.  I look for them to get it in blowout fashion as they return home after a brutal 2-game road trip to open conference play.

Indeed, the Orange have already had to travel to face Pitt and Miami to open conference play.  They were competitive in both games before eventually losing by 11 and 13 points, respectively.  But now they return home where they are 7-1 this season, outscoring teams by 13.7 points per game.

The Clemson Tigers are 8-6 on the season and shouldn't be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.  That's especially the case considering they are 0-3 in true road games this year with losses to Minnesota (by 6), Georgia (by 23) and North Carolina (by 11).

Clemson is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games off an upset win as a home underdog against a conference opponent.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in Tuesday night road games over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Roll with Syracuse Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Joe's -2

The St. Joe's Hawks are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season.  They have gotten off to an 11-2 start with their only two losses coming against Villanova and Florida.

The Hawks have gone on the road and beaten Temple, Richmond and Old Dominion this season.  They have gone an impressive 8-4 ATS in all games this year, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six lined games.  They are once again undervalued as only 2-point home favorites tonight.

The VCU Rams used to be a force under Shaka Smart before he bolted for Texas in the offseason.  Now, the Rams are only 9-5 in their first season without him.  They are really short on quality wins this year as their nine wins have come against Prairie View A&M, Radford, American, Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee, Buffalo, Liberty, North Florida and George Mason.

St. Joe's is 6-0 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 7 days this season.  The Hawks are 10-1 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or more of their shots over the last three seasons.  The Hawks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  St. Joe's is 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with VCU.  These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the Hawks.  Take St. Joe's Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Warriors UNDER 208

The books have set the bar too high with this total set tonight between the Charlotte Hornets and Golden State Warriors.  The injuries for both of these teams are really piling up now, which will help contribute to the UNDER.

Nicolas Batum, Jeremy Lin, and Spencer Hawes are all questionable for the Hornets, while Al Jefferson remains out.  Harrison Barnes and Brandon Rush are both banged up but expected to play for the Warriors.  Stephen Curry is questionable, while Festus Ezeli, Leandro Barbosa and James Michael McAdoo are all expected to miss tonight.

These are two solid defensive teams as the Warriors rank 4th in defensive efficiency, while the Hornets rank 11th.  Three of the last four meetings in this series have seen 207 or fewer combined points.  We're seeing an average of 196.8 combined points per game in those four meetings, which is 11 points less than this posted total of 208.

Charlotte is 19-8 UNDER vs. teams who score 103 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 15-4-2 in Hornets last 21 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 17-6 in Hornets last 23 Monday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +2.5

I will gladly fade the Miami Heat in this tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days.  They were in Washington last night, and now they have to return home to Miami tonight.

The Pacers are the better team here and should not be underdogs given the rest situation with them having yesterday off.  They have lost five of their last eight games overall, but three of those losses came by 4 points or less.

Indiana clearly matches up well with Miami.  It is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with the Heat with its only loss coming by exactly 2 points.  The Heat are 3-16 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons.

Indiana is 7-0 ATS against teams who win 60% to 70% of their games this season.  The Heat are 1-8 ATS versus teams who force 16 or more turnovers per game this year.  The Pacers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Heat are 13-36-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win.   Take the Pacers Monday.

15* UNC/FSU ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Florida State +3

I believe the oddsmakers have the wrong team favored here tonight in this game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and Florida State Seminoles.  I'll gladly back the home underdog Seminoles, who are one of the most underrated teams in the country.

Florida State's three losses this season have all come by single-digits and all on the road, including an overtime loss at Iowa.  This is a team that won 73-71 at Florida as 5-point dogs in its ACC opener.  The Seminoles are 5-0 at home this season, winning by 23.6 points per game.

North Carolina is more vulnerable than most expected it would be coming into the season.  The Tar Heels are 0-2 in true road games this season with losses at Northern Iowa and at Texas, which are two teams that aren't as good as Florida State.  They weren't impressive in their two ACC home games this season with an 11-point win over Clemson as 15.5-point favorites and an 8-point win over GA Tech as 14.5-point favorites, either.

The Tar Heels are 0-9 ATS after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last three seasons.  The Seminoles are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after being called for 5-plus more fouls than their opponents in two straight games.  Roll with Florida State Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Knicks UNDER 202.5

I'm backing the UNDER in this game between the New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks today.  I like UNDERS in early Sunday NBA games, and this one really stands out as having some value with a total set of over 200 points.

For starters, the Knicks will be controlling the tempo as they are playing at home, and they prefer a slow pace.  Indeed, the Knicks rank 23rd in the NBA in pace at 96.4 possessions per game.  The Knicks also struggle on the offensive end as they rank 24th in offensive efficiency.

New York is 18-8 UNDER when the total is 200 or more over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Knicks last 11 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in New York.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -1.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are showing solid value today as small favorites over the Milwaukee Bucks.  They are undervalued because they have lost five of their last six games coming in.

But they have also played a very tough stretch of games having played San Antonio twice, Indiana, Boston on the road and Detroit on the road.  They did beat the Jazz at home 94-80 two games back, and the schedule lightens up tonight.

The Milwaukee Bucks simply are not very good this season.  They are 13-21 on the year, and they have been awful on the road.  They are just 4-15 in road games this season, getting outscored by 10.7 points per game.  They should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers as a result.

Milwaukee is 16-42 ATS in its last 58 games off an upset win as an underdog against a division opponent.  The Bucks are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the Timberwolves Saturday.

15* Iowa State/Oklahoma Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +8

The Oklahoma Sooners are overvalued right now due to their 11-0 start to the season.  But their only significant win came against Villanova on a neutral court, otherwise they've played a very soft schedule outside of that game.

The Iowa State Cyclones suffered a bad loss to Northern Iowa.  But everything that could go wrong, did, as the Cyclones allowed 58% shooting as Northern Iowa simply could not miss from 3-point range.  But that loss has grounded this team, and they came back with a huge 81-79 upset win at Cincinnati as 5-point dogs their next time out.

Iowa State has won four of its last six meetings with Oklahoma with only one of its two losses coming by more than this 8-point margin.  The Cyclones are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Iowa State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five road games.  The Sooners are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. Big 12 opponents.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa +9

The betting public thinks that Iowa is going to have a letdown following its win over #1 Michigan State.  That would be the case if the Spartans were at full strength, but the Hawks were favored because Sparty didn't have their best player in Denzel Valentine.  The Hawks will show up in their first true Big Ten road game.

Iowa has lost three games this season, but all three came by 6 points or less on the road to quality opponents.  The Hawks lost to Dayton by 5, Notre Dame by 6, and Iowa State by 1.  They should have never lost to Iowa State as they blew a 20-point second half lead.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent meetings, which is why there is a lot of value here with the Hawkeyes catching 9 points.  Each of the last seven meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, including six by 7 points or less.  The Hawkeyes haven't lost by more than 7 to the Boilermakers in any of those seven meetings.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PURDUE) - bad pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers are 98-50 ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Big Ten opponents.  Take Iowa Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +11

The Syracuse Orange are showing great value today as double-digit road underdogs to the Miami Hurricanes.  This is simply too many points today folks.

The Miami Hurricanes are having a great season as they're off to an 11-1 start.  They have taken advantage of a pretty easy schedule, though they do have a few good wins over Utah, Butler and Florida.  But they also lost to Northeastern 77-78 at home, so they are vulnerable.

The Orange check in off an 11-point loss at Pittsburgh, so they don't want to start ACC play 0-2.  I believe that 11-point loss is the reason they are getting 11 points here from Miami, but it's just too much as Pitt is a better team than Miami.

The road team has won each of the last two meetings between these teams.  The road team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams who win between 60% and 80% of their games.  The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS in January home games over the last three seasons.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans -3

This is an awful spot for the Los Angeles Clippers.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th road game in 7 days and are running on fumes right now.  They won't have anything left to give tonight against the Pelicans.

That's especially the case since they're already short-handed without arguably their best player in Blake Griffin.  They won 122-117 in Charlotte last night in a fast-paced game.  On tired legs tonight, I look for Chris Paul, J.J. Redick and company to really struggle tonight on the offensive end, and to have little effort left to give on defensive.

The Pelicans have been playing better since head coach Alvin Gentry called out his players for their last of effort.  They have won three of their last five games since that occurred with one of their losses coming on the road at Miami in overtime.

The Pelicans have won four of their last five home games, including an upset win over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the league.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Clippers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 visits to New Orleans.  Roll with the Pelicans Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Providence +7.5

The Providence Friars are one of the best-kept secrets in college basketball.  They have gotten off to a 12-1 start this season behind three absolute studs in Ben Bentil (18.8 ppg, 8.0 rpg), Kris Dunn (16.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 7.3 apg) and Rodney Bullock (13.6 ppg, 7.5 rpg).

The only loss the Friars have suffered this year came against #1 Michigan State by 13 on a neutral court.  But they have beaten both Evansville (by 10) and Arizona (by 4) on a neutral court, as well as Rhode Island (by 2) and UMass (by 24) in its two true road games this season.  I really like what I've seen from the Friars and believe that they will give Butler a run for its money today.

Butler is also a solid team at 11-1 this season, but it should not be favored by 7.5 points here.  It comes in overvalued due to three straight ATS wins.  Tennessee only lost by 8 at Butler, which was the toughest opponent that the Bulldogs have faced at home this year.  They struggled to beat Temple (by 5) and lost to Miami (by 10) on a neutral court this year.

I really believe that home-court advantage means nothing in this series when you look at recent results.  The road team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Providence won 66-62 at Butler as 6-point dogs last season and 87-81 as 1.5-point dogs two years ago.  The Friars have actually won three of the last four meetings with their only loss coming by 4 points.

The Friars are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.  Providence is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Friars are 10-2 ATS off two straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Take Providence Thursday.

15* Xavier/Villanova Big East Early ANNIHILATOR on Xavier +4.5

The Xavier Musketeers just don't get the respect they deserve.  This team is arguably the best in the entire country, yet they don't get a lot of national attention.  They are out to prove that their run to the Elite 8 last year was no fluke like many believed it was.  So far, so good as far as proving it.

The Musketeers have gone 12-0 SU & 9-3 ATS in their 12 games this season, including a perfect 8-0 ATS run over their last eight games.  They've gone on the road and beaten Michigan (by 16) and Wake Forest (by 8).  They've also crushed Alabama (by 19), USC (by 10) and Dayton (by 29) on a neutral court.  And they've beaten Cincinnati (by 10) at home.  Those results show that they are the real deal.

Villanova is solid again this year at 10-2.  But it has lost to the two best teams it played, and it was thoroughly outplayed in both contests.  The Wildcats lost to Oklahoma (by 23) on a neutral court and to Virginia (by 11) on the road.  They really don't have a quality win yet as their best victories came over Georgia Tech and Stanford on a neutral court.

Xavier wants revenge on Villanova after losing all three meetings with the Wildcats last year, and five straight in this series overall.  I believe they will be playing with extra motivation because of it.  The Musketeers will also be the fresher team.  They last played on December 22 against Wake Forest.  Meanwhile, the Wildcats last played on December 28 against Pennsylvania, having just two days to prepare for the Musketeers.  That's a huge scheduling advantage for Xavier here.

The Musketeers are 43-21-1 ATS in their last 65 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Xavier is 11-1 ATS vs. teams who shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse over the last three seasons.  Again, the Musketeers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They should not be underdogs here.  Bet Xavier Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +10

The Philadelphia 76ers have been much more competitive here of late, and I look for that to continue as they give the Sacramento Kings a run for their money tonight and stay within single-digits.

The 76ers have covered their last two against the spread.  They won outright at Phoenix 111-104 as 11.5-point underdogs, and then came back with a 91-95 loss at Utah as 8-point dogs.  The 76ers are finally getting healthy as Jahlil Okafor is expected to play tonight.  They don't have anyone else listed on the injury report aside from Joel Embid, who is out for the season with a foot injury.

The Kings shouldn't be this heavily favored against anyone.  They have lost three of their last four with their only win coming by two points.  They could be without DeMarcus Cousins tonight as he faced a possible suspension.  That would only be an added bonus.  They are already without Willie Cauley-Stein and could be without Kosta Koufos as well.

The 76ers played the Kings very tough last year, winning 114-107 at home as 4.5-point dogs, and only losing 106-107 on the road as 8.5-point dogs. Philadelphia is now 13-3 ATS in its last 16 meetings with Sacramento, including a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven road meetings.

Sacramento is 12-23 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  The 76ers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Kings are 11-29-2 ATS in their last 42 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Take the 76ers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -2

I'll gladly fade the Utah Jazz, who are dealing with a plethora of injuries right now.  They are without two starters in Alec Burks and Rudy Gobert.  They could also be without a 3rd starter tonight in Derrick Favors, who missed their lackluster 95-91 home win over the 76ers last time out.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are hungry for a win tonight after losing four straight coming in.  But those four losses came to the Celtics, Pacers and Spurs (twice), and they even hung with the Spurs in a 95-101 road loss as 13.5-point dogs last time out.  Look for the Timberwolves to get back in the win column tonight now that they take a step down in competition.

The Jazz are 5-9 on the road this season and should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers given the state of their team health-wise.  The Timberwolves are basically at full strength heading into this one, which will be a huge advantage.  They should dominate in the paint with Gobert and possibly Favors out for the Jazz.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Bradley +20.5

The Bradley Braves are way undervalued here as 20.5-point road underdogs to the Northern Iowa Panthers in their Missouri Valley opener.  I'll gladly grab all the points I can get with the Braves here as there's little chance they lose by 21-plus points.

Bradley is just 2-11 this season while playing a brutal schedule that has featured games against Arizona, Virginia, Seton Hall, Ole Miss, UT-Arlington, Boise State and TCU.  Yet, the Braves have only lost by more than 20 points four times this season.

The Panthers are probably still feeling the after-effects of a 3-game trip to Hawaii over Christmas and cannot be fully prepared for this game.  They played three games against Hawaii, Washington State and BYU and lost two of the three with their only win coming by 4 points.  UNI only has two wins by more than 20 points this season.  Roll with Bradley Wednesday.

15* Michigan State/Iowa Big Ten Opener on Iowa -3

The oddsmakers know something here by having the Iowa Hawkeyes favored over the No. 1 team in the country in the Michigan State Spartans.  They expect the Hawkeyes to win, and are trying to get some money on the Spartans by making the Hawks favored.  That shouldn't be a problem considering the betting public loves ranked teams.

Indeed, roughly 67% of the bets as of this writing are coming in on Michigan State, yet the line has moved from Iowa -2 to Iowa -3.  So this reverse line movement shows us that the big money is on the Hawkeyes, and I totally agree that it should be given the situation.

Michigan State is playing without its best player in Denzel Valentine.  The Spartans secured their best start (13-0) in franchise history last time out, but it wasn't easy without him.  They needed overtime to escape with a 99-93 win over Oakland, and a 7-for-9 from 3-point range shooting effort out of Bryn Forbes.  They aren't going to get that again from him.

Iowa has really impressed me this season.  It blew out both Marquette (89-61) and Wichita State (84-61) on the road, while also beating a very good Florida State (78-75) team at home.  Its three losses have all come by 6 points or less on the road to Dayton (77-82), Notre Dame (62-68) and Iowa State (82-83).  It should have beaten Iowa State as it blew a 20-point lead in that game on the road at Hilton Coliseum, which is one of the toughest places to play in the country.  The Cyclones are currently the #11 ranked team in the land.

The Hawkeyes will be extremely motivated to end a 9-game losing streak to the Spartans.  They blew an 11-point halftime lead at home to Michigan State last year, and these players have not forgotten.  Look for them to be playing with some extra motivation here as a result, and for the home crowd to be a big influence as the No. 1 team in the country visits Iowa City tonight.

Tom Izzo is just 10-19 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less as the coach of Michigan State.  Fran McCaffery is 36-22 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Big Ten opponents.  Roll with Iowa Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Knicks UNDER 200

The books have set the bar way too high in this contest between the Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks.  There are several reasons to love the UNDER in this one, not the least of which is the fact that this is the second-highest total set in the last 14 meetings between these teams.  They are used to playing low-scoring games when they get together.

Indeed, 9 of the last 10 meetings between the Knicks and Pistons have seen 193 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  Only once did they reach 200 points, and that was a 202-point effort in the final meeting last year when neither team had anything to play for in mid-April.  They have combined for an average of just 182.3 points per game at the end of regulation in their last 10 meetings, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 200.

Both teams prefer to play at a slow tempo as the Knicks rank 23rd in pace at 96.7 possessions per game while the Pistons are 18th (98.0).  Both teams also struggle offensively as the Knicks rank 24th in offensive efficiency while the Pistons are 23rd.  The Pistons are 10th in defensive efficiency while the Knicks are 16th.

The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.  The UNDER is 16-4 in Pistons last 20 road games after playing two consecutive games as an underdog.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Knicks last four games following an ATS loss.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing excellent value as small home favorites against the Toronto Raptors tonight.  We'll gladly take advantage and back the Bulls as they pretty much just have to win this game to cover the spread.

The Bulls are a solid 11-5 at home this season.  But they come in undervalued due to having lost four of their last five games, including two by exactly 3 points.  But they did beat the Thunder 105-96 on the road on Christmas Day to show their potential, and I believe they'll live up to their potential tonight as they'll be motivated to turn this recent poor run around.

What you have to like about this game is that Chicago has owned Toronto.  The Bulls are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Raptors.  The last two have resulted in double-digit wins in favor of the Bulls with a 13-point road win and a 16-point home win.

Toronto is 5-17 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Belmont +3.5

This one is pretty simple folks.  The Belmont Bruins are going to be out for revenge after losing 57-61 at Valparaiso on December 3 earlier this month.  After that 4-point road loss, I like them to win this rematch outright at home this time around because they'll be the more motivated team.

Belmont has played a brutal schedule this year, which is why it is only 7-6 and better than its record would indicate.  The Bruins' six losses have come against ASU (by 9), Evansville (by 5), BYU, Valpo (by 4), Middle Tennessee and Cleveland State (by 2).  All six of those losses came on the road.

The Bruins are 3-0 at home this season, outscoring teams by 15.7 points per game.  Valpo is 4-2 on the road with narrow wins over Rhode Island (by 3), Oregon State (by 6) and Indiana State (by 6).  It has also lost at Oregon and at Ball State in two of its other three road games, and its only road blowout came at Chicago State.

Plays on a home team (BELMONT) - off two or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite, with four starters returning from last season are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS since 1997.  The Bruins will have their revenge tonight.  Roll with Belmont Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +4.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have started to turn their season around now that they are finally healthy.  They have won three of their last four games overall with home wins over the Blazers (by 26) and Rockets, as well as a road win at Denver.

The only loss by the Pelicans during this 4-game stretch came at Miami by a final of 88-94 in overtime.  So, they have either won or forced overtime in each of their last four games.  I think we're getting some good value with them at +4.5 here against Eastern Conference foe, Orlando.

The Magic come into this game overvalued due to sinning five of their last seven games overall.  But their two losses came against the two best teams they played in Atlanta and Miami, both at home.  Their five wins came against the Nets, Hornets, Blazers, Knicks and Rockets.

Orlando is 9-20 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 34-17 ATS in its last 51 road games after a game where both teams scored 105 or more points.  The Pelicans are 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 trips to Orlando.  The underdog is 20-6-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  Take the Pelicans Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana Pacers -2

The Atlanta Hawks come into this game way overvalued because they have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  But those six wins came against the 76ers, Celtics, Magic, Blazers, Pistons and Knicks.  Now they take a step up in competition tonight.

At the same time, the Pacers come in undervalued due to going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost on the road to Memphis and San Antonio, while also falling at home to Sacramento by 2.  They bounced back with a 102-88 win at Minnesota on Saturday, though.

The Pacers are 10-4 at home this season.  They are outscoring teams by 6.6 points per game at home this year.  The Hawks are 8-6 on the road, but they're getting outscored by 0.7 points per game away from home.

Indiana is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games after having lost 3 of its last 4 games coming in.  The Pacers are 10-1 ATS against teams who average 48 or fewer rebounds per game over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Indiana is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Roll with the Pacers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Knicks/Celtics UNDER 201.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics.  I look for a defensive battle between these two teams as neither gets to 100 points in this one, paving the way for an easy UNDER winner.

The biggest reason for the Celtics' turnaround this season has been defense.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  The Knicks are improved in this area as well as they rank 16th in defensive efficiency.

The Knicks are improved on offense this season, but only marginally as they still rank a woeful 22nd in offensive efficiency at 100.6 points per 100 possessions.  The Celtics have only been slightly better, ranking 21st at 101.0 points per 100 possessions.  The Knicks rank 23rd in pace at 96.7 possessions per game, so this one should be played at a slow pace.

I also think that it will be played at a slow pace for the simple fact that both teams played on Saturday, so they are both going to be tired playing this second of a back-to-back.  I think that hurts the offense more than the defense, which has proven to be the case over time.  Neither team is going to be looking to fast break with regularity.

New York is 30-15 UNDER versus teams who score 103 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Boston is 21-9 UNDER after covering three of its last four games against the spread over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 11-4 in Knicks last 15 games following a straight up loss.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Knicks last 10 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Celtics last five Sunday games.  The UNDER is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings, including 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Boston.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -1

Both the Rockets and Pelicans played on Christmas Day.  The difference is that the Pelicans have had more time to recover since they played the 12:00 EST game, while the Rockets played the second-to-last game last night.  The Pelicans will be the more rested team as a result.

I also believe the Pelicans will be the more motivated team.  They let one get away from them yesterday, losing in overtime to the Heat.  The Rockets are in a massive letdown spot here after beating the Spurs at home.  The Pelicans will want this one more because they are the ones coming off a loss.

The Pelicans haave played the Rockets tough in recent meetings in winning three of the last six.  All three of their losses came by 7 points or less with two of them coming on the road.  The Pelicans lost 101-108 at Houston in their first meeting this season in early December, so they'll be out for revenge as well.

The Pelicans are 6-6 at home this year while the Rockets are just 6-8 on the road.  Houston is 4-12 ATS off a home game this season.  New Orleans is 25-14 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 7-15-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to New Orleans.  Take the Pelicans Saturday.

25* NBA Pre-New Year's GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +7

The Cleveland Cavaliers want serious revenge on the Golden State Warriors.  They led the NBA Finals 2-1 last year, only to lose three straight and to fall short of a championship.  The only difference this time around is that the Cavaliers are healthy, which is a huge difference.

Back in 2011, Lebron James and the Miami Heat played the Dallas Mavericks on Christmas.  Coming off a Finals loss to Dirk Nowitzki & Co. Miami routed Dallas, leading by 32 points after three quarters.  I fully expect the Cavaliers to want this game more and to likely come away with an outright victory.

The Cavs come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won six straight games with three coming by double-digits, including both of their road wins over Boston (89-77) and Orlando (111-76) during this stretch.  Kyrie Irving returned to the lineup two games ago and should be up to game speed now in time for face the Warriors.

Remember, the Cavs didn't have Irving or Kevin Love against the Warriors in the NBA Finals, which are two of their three best players.  While James and company are downplaying the significance of this game to the media coming in, there's no question that deep down inside they want to kill the Warriors.  That will show on the court Friday.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

20* Bulls/Thunder Christmas Day No-Brainer on UNDER 205.5

This Christmas Day matchup between the Chicago Bulls and Oklahoma City Thunder features two of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  The Bulls rank 3rd in defensive efficiency, giving up 97.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Thunder rank 6th, giving up 98.8 points per 100 possessions.

The Bulls will be playing with extra determination in this game because they are coming off three straight losses and really need a win.  The last time they lost three straight this season, they came back with an 83-80 home win over the Clippers in a low-scoring, defensive battle that saw 163 combined points.

The Bulls have struggled to find easy baskets this season under Fred Hoiberg as they rank just 27th in offensive efficiency at 98.4 points per 100 possessions.  Things won't get any easier for them on that end against a Thunder team that has allowed 99 or fewer points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook get all the hype, but it's OKC's effort on the defensive end that makes them so good.

The UNDER in Christmas Day games is 27-13-1 (67.5%) since 2005.  While I do like some other UNDERS, this is my favorite of the bunch.  The UNDER is 15-4-2 in Bulls last 21 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest.   The UNDER is 10-1 in Bulls last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Thunder's last seven home games.  The UNDER is 9-0 in OKC's last nine when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 8-1 in OKC's last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  These last four trends combine for a 34-2 system backing the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Pelicans/Heat XMas Day Early ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +6

I've backed the Pelicans with success in each of their last two games and I'll continue riding them on Christmas Day as 6-point underdogs to the Miami Heat.  Head coach Alvin Gentry called out his players for their lack of effort three games ago in a loss to the Suns, and they've responded very well.

Indeed, the Pelicans went on the road in their first game after the loss to the Suns and beat the Nuggets 130-125 as 1-point underdogs.  In their second game since Gentry called out his players, the Pelicans rolled to a 115-89 home win over the Blazers as 7.5-point favorites.  Now I fully expect them to win this game outright against the Heat.

The Pelicans have had the Heat's number in recent meetings.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with home wins by 10 and 2 points, and a blowout 14-point road win.  I believe Anthony Davis' domination of Hassan Whiteside inside will be the difference in this game.  Davis is a tough matchup for Whiteside because he can hit 3-pointers, so Whiteside is forced away from the rim, making it much easier for other players to get uncontested layups.

The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games vs. teams with winning records.  The Heat are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents.  The Pelicans are 13-5-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings overall.  Roll with the Pelicans Friday.

5* Oklahoma/Hawaii ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma -6.5

This is a very generous price to get one of the best teams in the country tonight in the Oklahoma Sooners.  This team legitimately has a chance to win the Big 12 this season with four returning starters from last year.  Lon Kruger is on record as saying this is the hardest-working team he's ever coached.

The Sooners haven't disappointed in the early going.  They're off to a 9-0 start while winning their last eight games by an average of 26.1 points, including a 78-55 victory over then-No. 9 Villanova in Hawaii on December 7.  The Sooners opened their second trip to Honolulu with Tuesday's easy 88-60 victory over Washington State in the first round of the eight-team tournament.

That blowout victory allowed the Sooners to rest their starters down the stretch, so they'll be fresh tonight.  Buddy Hield had two straight 30-point performances before scoring an efficient 25 points in just 26 minutes yesterday.  They played the early game in Honolulu last night, while Hawaii played the late game that didn't tip until 12 AM EST.  Now the Rainbow Warriors will have to get ready for a 9 PM EST tip tonight.

Oklahoma is scoring 87.8 points against teams that give up 72.7, and it is giving up 63.9 points against teams that average 75.1.  That is roughly a plus-26 mark based off what its opponents average.  Hawaii puts up 80.2 points against teams that allow 75.9, and it allows 67.4 against teams that average 72.8.  That's a plus-10 mark for the Warriors.

That means Oklahoma should be favored by 16 points on a neutral court over Hawaii, and roughly 12 points in a true road game.  But the Sooners have played a lot tougher schedule, so their plus-26 mark is much more impressive than Hawaii's plus-10 mark.  This line should be in the 12-to-15-point range instead of 7.5.

The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  The Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Warriors are getting too much respect for their win over Northern Iowa last night.  That was a UNI team that wasn't used to playing that late at night, and also one that was in a huge letdown spot off its win over Iowa State just three days earlier.  Take Oklahoma Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -8

I was on the New Orleans Pelicans in their last game, a 130-125 win at Denver as 1-point underdogs.  I stated that head coach Alvin Gentry had called out his players for their lack of effort following a loss to the Suns, and that they'd come back with a great effort against the Nuggets.

That proved to be the case as Anthony Davis led the way with 27 points, including 19 in the first quarter, despite playing through an illness that required four IV treatments prior to the game.  It was a gutsy performance from him, and I believe the Pelicans will rally around him now and come back with another great effort against the Blazers tonight.

Portland has lost its first four games on this 5-game road trip.  It is getting outscored by 10.0 points per game while giving up 107.5 points on 49.8 percent shooting defensively.  Now the Blazers are expected to be without their two best players in Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.  They stand no chance of keeping this game close considering that duo is responsible for 42.6 percent of Portland's scoring this season.

The Pelicans want revenge from two losses at Portland already this season, including a 101-105 loss on December 14 just nine days ago.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won five of the last six meetings, and 12 of the last 14 meetings overall.

Portland is 1-10 ATS off three consecutive non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 11-25 ATS off a road loss over the last two years.  The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Roll with the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference Total ANNIHILATOR on Pistons/Hawks UNDER 202.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Atlanta Hawks and Detroit Pistons.  I look for a low-scoring battle with neither team topping 100 points in this one folks.

These two teams both prefer to play at slower paces.  The Pistons rank 21st in pace while the Hawks rank 15th.  Both teams are above-average defensively as the Pistons rank 11th in defensive efficiency, while the Hawks check in at 13th.  The Pistons are only 24th in offensive efficiency this season.
 
Detroit shot 15-of-29 from 3-point range last night at Miami, yet it still only won 93-92 for 185 combined points.  It has not played well offensively in second of back-to-back road games.  The Pistons are averaging 88.0 points on 39.9 percent shooting in losing all three of their second half of back-to-backs played on the road.

You also have to like the UNDER in this game based off the recent history in this series.  Five of the last six meetings between the Pistons and Hawks have seen 200 or fewer combined points.  They're averaging 194.8 combined points in their last six meetings, which is roughly eight points less than this 202.5-point total.

Atlanta is 16-4 UNDER in home games versus good rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  Detroit is 16-3 UNDER in road games after playing two consecutive games as an underdog over the last two years.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Atlanta.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Knicks/Cavs NBA Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 197

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers.  I look for a low-scoring affair whether or not Carmelo Anthony plays for the Knicks.  He is currently questionable with an ankle injury.

The Knicks rank just 21st in offensive efficiency this season.  Things won't get any easier against a Cleveland team that ranks 6th in defensive efficiency.  The Knicks are solid in this category as well as they are 16th in defensive efficiency.

One thing is almost certain, and that is the fact that this game is going to be played at a snail's pace.  The Cavs rank 28th in the league in pace at 95.6 possessions per game, while the Knicks are 23rd at 96.9 possessions per game.  A snail's pace has indeed been the trend when these teams have gotten together recently.

In fact, the UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with combined scores of 174, 182, 184, 177 and 185 points.  That's an average of 180.4 combined points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 197.

The UNDER is 10-3 in Knicks last 13 games following a straight up loss.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Cavs last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 20-8 in Cavs last 28 vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Kansas/SDSU Late-Night BAILOUT on Kansas -6.5

Northing is certainly except death, taxes and Kansas winning the Big 12.  The Jayhawks are once again the best team in arguably the best conference in the country.  This team is a little different in that it finally has some experience with four returning starters from last year.  The Jayhawks are on a mission to finish the deal this year.

They are off to a 9-1 start with their only loss coming to top-ranked Michigan State by a final of 73-79 on a neutral court.  They led that game the whole way, too, but allowed the Spartans to come back.  They rest of their games haven't even been close as all nine of their wins have come by 6 points or more.   They are outscoring teams by 23.7 points per game on the season.

The Jayhawks score 89.8 points against teams that allow 73.1, and they allow 66.1 against teams that score 73.4.  That's roughly a plus-24 mark based off of what their opponents average.  San Diego State is scoring 65.7 points per game against teams that allow 69.3, and allowing 59.3 against teams that score 70.2.  That's a plus-7 mark.  Kansas has played a tougher schedule, so it should be at least a 17-point favorite against SDSU on a neutral court.  Factor in the home floor for the Aztecs, and the Jayhawks should be a 13 to 14-point favorite here.

There are several performances by the Aztecs this year that lead me to believe that they can't hang with the Jayhawks.  They lost at home to Arkansas-Little Rock (by 6) as 16.5-point favorites and at home to Grand Canyon (by 7).  There wasn't even a line on that Grand Canyon game as they were expected to blow them out.  They also lost to West Virginia (by 22) on a neutral court.  This is a team that has already lost five games and isn't as good as in year's past under head coach Steve Fisher.

Two seasons ago, SDSU pulled one of the biggest upsets of the season with a 61-57 win at Kansas as 10.5-point underdogs.  This veteran Jayhawks team that returned four starters this year remembers that loss, and it will certainly want to exact some revenge this year.
 
San Diego is 0-12 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  For whatever reason, Fisher hasn't been able to get his team to respond very well with good rest coming into games.  Take Kansas Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies/76ers UNDER 195

I look for an ugly, low-scoring defensive battle between the Memphis Grizzlies and Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  These are two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA, and that will be on full display tonight.

The 76ers rank 30th in offensive efficiency, while the Grizzlies are 26th.  Not only are they both inefficient, but this game is sure to be played at a pretty slow pace as well.  The Grizzlies rank 24th in the NBA in pace at 96.6 possessions per game.

The 76ers try to play faster, but they aren't equipped to do it, which is why they are so inefficient.  The 76ers have scored 97 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games overall and put up just 91.2 points per game on the season.  The Grizzlies have been held to 99 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 games overall.

Both meetings last season between these teams were very low-scoring.  They combined for 176 and 184 points in their last two meetings.  That's an average of 180 combined points per game, which is 15 points less than this 195-point total.

The UNDER is 13-5 in Grizzlies last 18 road games.  The UNDER is 33-13-1 in Grizzlies last 47 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Grizzlies last eight games vs. Western Conference opponents.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Xavier -7

The Xavier Musketeers have been the most underrated team in the country this season.  They made the Elite 8 last year, but everyone felt like they got lucky.  The Musketeers have been making a point to prove that it was no fluke and that they are a legitimate Final Four contender this year.

Indeed, they are off to an 11-0 start this season and have left almost everyone in the dust.  They are outscoring teams by 18.8 points per game.  They are scoring 81.7 points per game against teams that allow 68.9, and giving up 62.9 points per game against teams that score 73.4.  That's essentially a plus-24 mark based off of what their opponents average.

Let's highlight some of their wins just to show how good they really are.  They won by 16 in a true road game at Michigan, by 19 on a neutral court over Alabama, by 10 on a neutral court over USC, by 29 on the neutral court against Dayton, and by 10 at home against Cincinnati.

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are off to an 8-2 start this season, but they are only outscoring teams by 0.9 points per game.  They score 79.7 points per game against teams that allow 72.1, but they give up 78.8 points per game against teams that score 77.8.  That's only a plus-7 mark based off of what their opponents average.

Both teams have played equal schedules, so the Musketeers' plus-24 mark over the Demon Deacons' plus-7 mark means the Musketeers should be favored by 17 on a neutral court.  That also means they should be favored by 13-14 at Wake Forest, yet this line is only -7.

The Demon Deacons have been beaten badly at home against Richmond (by 9) and on a neutral court against Vanderbilt (by 22).  They also have narrow home wins this season over MD-Balt County (by 5), Arkansas (by 3), UNC-Greensboro (by 10) and Coastal Carolina (by 6).  Those performances don't lead me to believe that they can even keep this game close against arguably the best team in the country in Xavier.

Xavier is 8-0 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Musketeers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Demon Deacons are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Wake Forest is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win.  These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Musketeers.  Bet Xavier Tuesday.

15* Iowa State/Cincinnati ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State +4.5

The 11th-ranked Iowa State Cyclones needed a wake-up call.  They started the season 9-0 but gave lackluster efforts in the first 30 minutes of most of their games before turning it on in the final 10.  That was evident in an 83-82 win over Iowa in which they trailed by 20 points in the second half.

In their last game, the Cyclones trailed most the way against Northern Iowa and again made a comeback.  But it fell just short as they lost 79-81.  Now, everything went right for Northern Iowa as it shot 58% from the floor, including an unlikely 13-of-22 (59.1%) from 3-point range.  That's what it took to beat a team as good as the Cyclones.

But after getting that wake-up call, I expect to see the best effort of the season from the Cyclones tonight against the Cincinnati Bearcats.  They have shown what they're capable of when they have their foot on the gas in the final 10 minutes of games, and now I expect to see that effort over a full 40 minutes now that they finally lost a game.

Cincinnati has lost to the two best teams it has played in Xavier (lost by 10) and Butler.  It doesn't really have many good wins as its best victories have come against Nebraska (by 4), George Washington (by 5) and VCU (by 6).  While I expect the Cyclones to win this game outright, the +4.5 could certainly come into play if it's close late.

Cincinnati is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Cyclones are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Iowa State is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four road games.  The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Iowa State Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Utah Jazz -4

The Utah Jazz are way undervalued right now because of their recent results.  They have lost four of their last five games, but two of those came to Oklahoma City and another to San Antonio.  They lost to OKC by 4 and 6 points with one going into OT.  They did get back on track Friday with a 97-88 home win over the Nuggets, though.

Now the Jazz have had two days off since that game and will be well-rested and ready to go.  The same cannot be said for the Phoenix Suns, who lost 95-101 at home to the Milwaukee Bucks Sunday.  Now the Suns will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  They won't be able to match the Jazz's energy or intensity level in this one as a result.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  The Jazz have won their last two home meetings with the Suns by 27 and 25 points.  They've won five of their last six home meetings with the Suns.  Phoenix has dropped 10 of 14 road games this season and 25 of 33 dating back to January.

The Jazz are 9-1 ATS after playing a game as a favorite this season.  The Suns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Utah is 33-16 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Jazz Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston -2

The Houston Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country this season under legendary head coach Kelvin Sampson.  They returned four starters this year and were going to be better, but not many saw this 8-1 start coming.  They continue to be undervalued here as only 2-point favorites over Grand Canyon in this Global Sports Classic in Las Vegas.

The Cougars have been rolling this season, averaging 85.6 points and 49.4% shooting offensively, while giving up 69.2 points and 43.1% shooting defensively.  They are outscoring foes by 16.4 points per game.  Their only loss came on the road at Rhode Island, and they've beaten the likes of LSU and Murray State.

Grand Canyon has certainly played well under head coach Dan Majerle.  It is 9-2 on the season, but that has come against a very easy schedule.  This is a team that lost 63-111 to Louisville.  But Grand Canyon comes in overvalued off a huge upset win at San Diego State on Friday, which sets it up for a letdown spot here.

The Cougars are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference games.  The Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  The Antelopes are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Take Houston Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -1

After going 45-37 last year, the New Orleans Pelicans had high hopes of being among the Western Conference's best teams this season.  Instead, injuries derailed them early, and despite the fact that they are now healthy, they continue to be inconsistent.  They are just 7-19 this year.

Things came to a boiling point in their loss to Phoenix on Friday, and first-year head coach Alvin Gentry called out his team.   ''Terrible, terrible, bad effort,'' Gentry said after a 104-88 loss to the Suns. ''Not playing hard, not giving a damn, that's the way I want to sum it up. We didn't play with effort. We didn't play together as a team, so nothing worked. Nothing, nothing.''

"We played terrible," start center Anthony Davis said. "We weren't competing and we didn't play hard. They just did whatever they wanted and we acted like we didn't want to be here."

After voicing their frustrations through the media and amongst each other, I fully expect the Pelicans to put forth their best effort of the season Sunday against the Denver Nuggets.  This is a team that they can and should beat with the talent they have, and with a little more effort here, I expect them to roll to victory.

The Nuggets come in overvalued after winning five of their last seven games, but four of those wins came by 6 points or less and by a combined 12 points.  They have beaten the Raptors, 76ers, Rockets & Timberwolves (twice) during this stretch.  They also lost by 11 to Orlando and by 9 to Utah.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team has won four straight meetings.  The Pelicans also want revenge from their 98-115 home loss to the Nuggets in their first meeting this season on November 17.

Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after playing two consecutive road games.  The Pelicans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 Sunday games.  The Nuggets are 16-38-2 ATS in their last 56 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with the Pelicans Sunday.

15* Davidson/Pitt ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -5

The Pitt Panthers are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to an 8-1 start with their only loss coming to Purdue, which is 11-1 on the season.  The numbers this team is putting up are very impressive and certainly lead me to believe they will win this game against Davidson by more than five points.

Jamie Dixon returned four starters and has his best team in years.  The Panthers are outscoring teams by 23.7 points per game this season.  They score 85.3 points per game against teams that give up 75.3 points per game, and they give up 61.6 points per game against teams that average 73.9.  That's roughly a plus-24 point edge against what their opponents average.

Davidson is also off to a solid 7-1 start, but this team has feasted on an easy schedule.  Its seven wins have come against UCF (by 5), College of Charleston (by 1), Mercer (by 6), Denison (by 13), Charlotte, (by 35), Eastern Washington (by 10), and Western Carolina (by 33).  As you can see, the Wildcats have won a lot of close games this year.

In their toughest game of the season, the Wildcats were thoroughly overmatched at North Carolina in a 65-98 road loss as 15-point dogs.  UNC is a better team than Pitt, but it's not that far off.  The Panthers are a real force to be reckoned with in the ACC this season.

Davidson is scoring 13 more points than its opponents give up on average, but it is giving up 2 more points than its opponents average.  That's a plus-11 point edge against what its opponents average.  Compare that to Pitt's plus-24 point edge, and I would make the Panthers 13-point favorites on a neutral court.  Well, this is on a neutral court, and the Panthers should be heavier favorites.

These teams do have a common opponent in Eastern Washington.  Davidson only beat Eastern Washington 96-86 as 16.5-point home favorites.  Pittsburgh beat Eastern Washington 84-51 as 19-point home favorites.  So, the Wildcats only won by 10 while the Panthers won by 33.  This is another sign that the Panthers are far and away the superior team.

The Wildcats are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Davidson is 0-5 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Davidson is 1-6 ATS in its last seven Sunday games.  These four trends make for a combined 24-1 system going against the Wildcats.  Bet Pitt Sunday.

15* Baylor/Texas A&M ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Texas A&M -2.5

The Baylor Bears are off to a 7-1 start because they have played one of the easiest schedules in the country.  They have played seven of their first eight games at home.  In their lone road game, they lost 67-74 at Oregon.  This will be just their second true road game of the season.

The Texas A&M Aggies are the real deal this season.  They are off to an 8-2 start despite playing a brutal schedule.  They have already faced the likes of Texas, Gonzaga, Syracuse and Arizona State all on the road, while also beating Kansas State by 10 at home.  They beat Texas and Gonzaga with their two losses coming to Syracuse and ASU.

So, the Aggies are clearly battle-tested due to the schedule they've been up against.  The Bears are not battle-tested at all.  I'll gladly back the better team that has played tougher competition up to this point, especially when that team is playing at home and laying only 2.5 points.  The Aggies are 6-0 at home this year, beating teams by 25.8 points per game.

Texas A&M is 6-0 ATS versus good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game over the last three seasons.  The Aggies are 9-2 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots over the last two years.  The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Aggies also have a nice scheduling advantage as they last played 7 days ago while the Bears last played 3 days ago.  Take Texas A&M Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Saint Louis -2.5

Last year was a rebuilding year for the Saint Louis Billikens, who had to break in five new starters and managed to go just 11-21.  That was a rare down year for this program and head coach Jim Crews, who is still 71-39 in his three-plus seasons here even after that disaster.

But the Billikens are vastly improved this season thanks to four returning starters and much better experience.  They are off to a 5-4 start this season.  They opened 4-0 with four straight wins by double-digits before running into the brutal portion of their schedule.

They have lost four of their last five, which has them undervalued here.  But three of those losses came to Louisville, Morehead State and Wichita State.  The Billikens have failed to cover the spread in four straight lined games, which also has them undervalued, especially after an upset loss to Tennessee-Martin last time out.

Indiana State is just 4-6 this season and getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.  This is a team that already has losses at home to IUPUI and on the road to Eastern Illinois.  Its four wins have come against Wyoming, Norfolk State, Hofstra and Illinois-Springfield.  The Sycamores don't have a quality win yet.

This has been a one-sided series as Saint Louis is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  It has home wins by 9 and 17 points, as well as a 13-point road win last year.  And we know how down the Billikens were last season, yet they went on the road and beat the Sycamores 69-56 as 3.5-point underdogs.

Indiana State is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. teams who average 6 or less steals per game over the last two seasons.  The Sycamores are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win.  Indiana State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. Atlantic 10 opponents.  Roll with Saint Louis Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Knicks +3

The Chicago Bulls are running on fumes right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back after playing in a 4-overtime, 144-147 home loss to the Detroit Pistons last night.  Now they have to travel all the way to New York to face the Knicks Saturday night with a 7:35 EST tip.

Fred Hoiberg played the same five guys for almost the entire four overtimes.  As a result, Jimmy Butler played 56 minutes, Derrick Rose played 54, Pau Gasol play 48, Taj Gibson played 44 and Tony Snell played 38.  It's safe to say that none of these players are going to have anything left in the tank Saturday.

New York will also be playing the second of a back-to-back after a 107-97 win at Philadelphia Friday.  But this game was decided by the start of the 4th quarter as the Knicks led by 21.  As a result, key starters played small minutes. Carmelo Anthony (28) had the most minutes of anyone, while Arron Afflalo (26), Jose Calderon (24) Kristaps Porzingis (26) and Robin Lopez (16) all had ample rest as well.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between New York and Chicago.  Indeed, the home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings.  The Bulls are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 Saturday games.  The Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  This will also be the 7th game in 11 days for the Bulls, who are simply running on fumes right now.  Bet the Knicks Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana +1

The Indiana Hoosiers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish square off at Banker's Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis Saturday in a huge in-state clash.  I believe the wrong team is favored here as the Hoosiers will run away with this one as 1-point underdogs.

Indiana is off to an 8-3 start this season against a brutal schedule.  It has already had to face the likes of Creighton, Wake Forest, UNLV and Duke.  Two of its three losses have come by a combined 7 points.  The only blowout loss came at Duke, and nobody wins in Durham.  But since that loss, the Hoosiers have reeled off three straight blowout victories by 33, 25 and 45 points.

Notre Dame hasn't impressed me at all this season.  Its best wins have come against Iowa (by 6) and Illinois (by 5).  It has lost to the likes of Monmouth and Alabama this season.  The Fighting Irish lost their two best players from last year, and they just aren't as good as they were a year ago when they made a run to the Elite 8.

Indiana returned four starters and brought in one of the best recruits in the country in Thomas Bryant.  Bryant (11.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg) has played well in his rookie season.  But three returning starters in Yogi Ferrell (16.8 ppg, 6.5 apg, 4.8 rpg), James Blackmon (16.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and Troy Williams (13.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg) are all playing lights out.  This is a team to be reckoned with in the Big Ten.  Roll with Indiana Saturday.

15* Villanova/Virginia ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Virginia -4.5

The Virginia Cavaliers are 8-1 and one of the best teams in the country this season.  Their only loss came on the road against a tough George Washington team in their second game of the season by 5 points.  They have rolled in all other games.

Indeed, seven of their eight wins have come by 15 points or more.  The lone exception was a 6-point road win at Ohio State.  They just beat West Virginia by 16 as 4.5-point favorites last time out.  What's most impressive about this start is that six of the nine games have been played on the road.

The Cavaliers are outscoring teams by 19.2 points per game on the season.  Their defense has been suffocating once again as they allow 57.1 points per game against teams that average 69.7.  Their offense is improved as they put up 76.3 points against teams that give up 68.

Villanova is off to an identical 8-1 start.  The difference is that the Wildcats have played an easier schedule with just four road games compared to five at home.  They have beaten Stanford, Georgia Tech and St. Joe's on the road, but in their biggest game of the season up to this point, they were destroyed 55-78 by Oklahoma.  A similar fate will be in store for the Wildcats tonight.

Tony Bennett is 8-1 ATS in home games off two straight wins by 15 points or more as the coach of Virginia.  The Cavaliers are coming back to win by 23.5 points per game on average in their next game.  The Cavaliers are 36-17-2 ATS in their last 55 Saturday games.  The Cavaliers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Long Beach State +12.5

The Long Beach State 49ers have been one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball in the early going.  They have played a brutal schedule with 12 games in less than a month against great competition, and they've managed to get through it with a 6-6 record straight up and a 7-2 ATS mark in all lined games.

The 49ers have only been blown out once this season, and that came against Virginia.  Five of their six losses have all come by 7 points or less to Oklahoma State (by 5), San Diego State (by 4), UCLA (by 7), Pepperdine (by 2) and Oklahoma State (by 6) again.  Four of those five losses came on the road.

The 49ers have some great wins to their name as well.  They have beaten BYU as 3.5-point dogs, Seton Hall as a4.5-point dogs, Colorado State as 8-point dogs, and New Mexico State (by 14) as 1-point favorites.  As you can see, they have played such a tough schedule.

Oregon is off to an 8-2 start this season an is laying a few too many points here as a result.  The Ducks have narrow wins over Baylor (by 7), Valpo (by 6) and Fresno State (by 5) all at home this year.  They have also lost to Boise State (by 2) on the road and UNLV (by 11) on a neutral court.

This is a good spot for the 49ers, who have finally had some rest coming into this one.  They have had five days off in between games having last played in an 87-60 home win over Tampa U on December 12.  The Ducks, meanwhile, will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days and have had just two days off since their 15-point win over UC-Irvine on Tuesday.

Oregon has made a living off of forcing turnovers this season and getting easy baskets off of them.  The Ducks force 16 turnovers per game this year.  That makes this a great matchup for Long Beach State, which only turns the ball over 11 times per game while forcing 15 turnovers per game of their own.

This game has special meaning for Long Beach State head coach, Dan Monson.  His father, Don Monson, coached at Oregon from 1984-92.  There's no question he will have his team ready to go for this one as he tries to beat his father's former school.

Long Beach State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after having lost two of its last three games coming in.  Oregon is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games after having won 8 or more of its last 10 games coming in.  The 49ers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.  Roll with Long Beach State Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -3

The Miami Heat come in playing some of their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games with a 3-point home win over Memphis, a 12-point road win at Atlanta and a 6-point road win at Brooklyn.

The Heat have done an excellent job of protecting their home court this year as they are 11-4 in home games.  The Raptors are also playing well, winning four of their last six, but all four victories have come at home during this stretch.

The Raptors have lost two straight road games coming in with a 16-point loss at Indiana and a 10-point loss in overtime at Charlotte last night.  The Raptors will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after that OT game, plus its their 4th game in 6 days.  This team is short-handed as it is right now as they are missing two starters in center Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-1 straight up in the last six meetings.  Miami has gone 17-2 SU in its last 19 meetings with Toronto with all 17 wins coming by 3 points or more.  In fact, a whopping 16 of those wins came by 5 points or more.  Miami has also won 11 of its last 12 home meetings with Toronto.  Take the Heat Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing great value tonight as only 3.5-point home favorites over the Detroit Pistons.  They are playing great coming in, and the home team has dominated this series between these two teams as well.

The Bulls have won four straight games coming in with victories over the Clippers, Pelicans, 76ers and Grizzlies.  The last two have come via blowout by 19 and 13 points.  Look for them to continue their solid play tonight against the Pistons and improve upon their 11-3 home record.

The Pistons are also playing well, having won three of their last four.  But two of those wins came at home, and the one road victory was against the lowly 76ers.  The Pistons are just 5-8 SU & 5-8 ATS in road games this season, scoring 95.3 points per game and shooting 40.9% away from home.  Things won't get any easier against the Bulls, who allow 93.8 points on 40.8% shooting at home.

Home-court advantage has meant everything in this series in recent meetings.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings with all six wins coming by 4 points or more.  The Bulls have won their last three home meetings with the Pistons by 6, 11 and 8 points, respectively.

Chicago lost 94-98 in overtime at Detroit in their first and only meeting this season.  That plays right into the Bulls' hands considering they are 55-35 ATS in their last 90 games revenging a loss.  The Pistons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Detroit is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

15* Thunder/Cavs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 205

Look for a defensive battle tonight in this high-profile game between Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers against Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and the Oklahoma City Thunder.  This contest will be nationally televised on TNT tonight, which means the defense from both teams will be turned up a notch.

These are two of the better defensive teams in the NBA as the Cavs rank 8th in defensive efficiency, while the Thunder rank 10th.  Both teams have really been locking in defensively here of late.

The Thunder have allowed 98 or fewer points in seven straight games, and 99 or less in 10 of their last 11.  To no surprise, the UNDER is 10-1 in their last 11 games overall.  The Cavs have allowed 100 or less in seven of their last eight games.  The UNDER is 6-2 in their last eight contests.

The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between these teams.  Cleveland is 11-2 to the UNDER after allowing 90 points or less in two straight games over the last three seasons.  Oklahoma City is 11-0 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive wins this season.  The Thunder are 11-0 UNDER after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games this season.  OKC is 8-0 UNDER vs. teams who are called for 21 or less fouls per game this season.  These last three trends combine for a 30-0 system backing the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Marshall +20.5

The Marshall Thundering Herd are simply catching too many points tonight against the West Virginia Mountaineers in this in-state showdown.  We'll gladly take the 20.5 points in what will be a closer game than the oddsmakers expect.

That was certainly the case last year when Marshall nearly upset West Virginia in a 66-69 loss as 17.5-point underdogs.  This has been a very closely-contested series.  In fact, each of the last 18 meetings have been decided by 16 points or less dating back to 1998.  That's an 18-0 system backing the Thundering Herd when you factor in this 20.5-point spread.  A whopping 14 of those 18 meetings were decided by 10 points or fewer as well.

After an 0-6 start, the Thundering Herd have been playing up to their capabilities here of late with three straight wins by 6, 24 and 19 points coming in.  They are a group that is used to playing at a frantic pace under second-year head coach Dan D'Antoni, the brother of Mike D'Antoni.  West Virginia is a pressing team that likes to force opponents to play faster, and that plays right into Marshall's hands.  Roll with Marshall Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on 76ers/Hawks UNDER 199.5

Both of these teams have been profitable UNDER bets this season.  The Hawks are 16-10 to the UNDER, while the 76ers are 14-12 to the UNDER.  The UNDER is 9-5 in Hawks' 14 home games, while the UNDER is 10-5 in 76ers' 15 road games.

The Hawks have taken a big step back offensively this season, while the 76ers rank 30th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 91.4 points per 100 possessions.  Atlanta plays at the 19th-fastest pace in the NBA this season and will control the tempo playing at home.

The recent head-to-head history tells the story in this one.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings, and we've seen 198 or fewer combined points in all five.  We've seen 176, 176, 192, 174 and 198 combined points in the last five meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 183.2 combined points per game, which is roughly 16 points less than tonight's posted total of 199.5.

Atlanta is 7-0 to the UNDER after two straight games where opponent was called for 18 or less fouls this season.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ATLANTA) - after a loss by 10 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 90-37 (70.9%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Hawks last seven games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +9.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are simply catching too many points tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Asking the Thunder to beat them by double-digits to cover this spread is simply asking too much.

The Blazers are playing their best basketball of the season coming in.  They have gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  You have to go all the way back to November 30 to find the last time they lost a game by more than 5 points, which is a span of eight games since.  They have won road games at Minnesota and Phoenix during this span, with a 2-point loss to the Bucks and a 5-point loss to the Cavs as well.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season as they are just 9-14 ATS.  They have won five in a row, but only two of their last seven games have they won by double-digits.  The Blazers actually won three of four meetings with the Thunder last year.

In fact, the Blazers have lost by double-digits to the Thunder just once in the last eight meetings.  They have won five of those meetings outright.  The Thunder are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games playing on 2 days rest.  Oklahoma City is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Blazers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Nets UNDER 191.5

The Miami Heat have been the best UNDER bet in the NBA this season.  They have gone 18-5 to the UNDER in their 23 games this year.  The Nets haven't been too shabby themselves, going 15-9 to the UNDER in their 24 games.

The Heat rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 96.5 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Spurs have been better.  Both teams have struggled on the other end of the floor.  The Nets rank 29th in offensive efficiency, while the Heat rank 18th.  The Heat rank 26th in pace with the Nets checking in at 15th.

This has been a very low-scoring series as four of the last five meetings have seen 190 or fewer combined points.  They've combined for 202, 172, 186, 178 and 190 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 185.6 combined points per game, which is roughly six points less than this posted total of 191.5.

The UNDER is 36-15 in Heat's last 51 road games, including a perfect 8-0 this season.  The Heat and they're opponents are combining for an average of just 182.2 points per game on the road this year.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Nets last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Magic UNDER 198

The Charlotte Hornets and Orland Magic are two of the most improved defensive teams in the NBA this season.  The Hornets rank 6th in defensive efficiency, while the Magic check in at 7th in the first year under head coach Scott Skiles, who has always been a defensive guy.

While the Hornets have been solid offensively this year, the Magic check in at 21st in offensive efficiency.  Both teams like to play at slow paces, too.  The Hornets are 17th in pace while the Magic are 18th.  Look for an ugly, defensive battle tonight when these two teams get together.

That has been the case in recent meetings.  The Hornets and Magic have combined for 181, 188 and 196 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 188.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than this posted total of 198.

The UNDER is 12-2-2 in Hornets last 16 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 19-7-1 in Hornets last 27 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Magic's last eight vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Nets last four vs. NBA Southeast Division foes.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Richmond -3.5

I really like this Richmond team that returned four starters from last year.  The Spiders have gotten off to a 6-3 start this season with two of their losses coming on the road to WVU and Florida.  They have beaten the likes of Wake Forest (by 9), California (by 4) and Northern Iowa (by 15), so they have certainly played a gauntlet of a schedule.

The Old Dominion Monarchs have gone just 4-5 this season.  They have played some tough teams as well, but they certainly haven't played a tougher schedule than Richmond.  The Monarchs have really struggled on the road, going 0-5 in all road games while getting outscored by 8.8 points per game.  They are scoring just 56.4 points per game on 36.8% shooting on the road.  To compare, the Spiders are scoring 86.2 points and shooting 51.5% at home.

The one thing that stands out to me is that Richmond simply does not lose to Old Dominion at home.  It is a perfect 9-0 in its last nine home meetings with ODU, which dates all the way back to 1998.  With a spread of only 3.5, the Spiders essentially just have to win this game to cover.  That shouldn't be a problem.

Old Dominion is 0-7 ATS in road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80% over the last two seasons.  Old Dominion is 0-8 ATS in road games versus teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two years.  Take Richmond Wednesday.

20* Cavs/Celtics NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on Boston +1.5

The Boston Celtics want revenge on the Cleveland Cavaliers after getting swept in four games in the playoffs last year.  They did play the Cavs tough in the final three games of that series, losing all three games by exactly 8 points.  Now the Celtics are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season and fully capable of pulling off the upset.

The Celtics are 14-10 on the season, outscoring teams by an average of 5.0 points per game.  The improvement they've made this year is due to their defense.  The Celtics rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 97.0 points per 100 possessions.

While the Cavaliers are 10-1 at home this season, they have been extremely vulnerable on the road.  Indeed, the Cavs are 5-6 straight up and 4-7 ATS in road games this season.  Lebron James, J.R. Smith and Matthew Dellavedova are on on the injury report right now with various injuries, though all three are expected to play.  Kyrie Irving remains on the shelf.

Cleveland is 1-11 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons. The Cavaliers are 1-9 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  The Celtics are 38-22 ATS as an underdog over the last two years.  The Celtics are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Boston is 34-16-1 ATS in its last 51 games following a win.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Drexel +17.5

The Drexel Dragons are undervalued right now due to their 1-6 start to the season.  At the same time, the South Carolina Gamecocks are overvalued due to their 8-0 start this season.  This has created the perfect storm and an inflated line that we'll take advantage of here.

The Dragons aren't nearly as poor as their record.  This is a team that returned four starters from last year.  But the Dragons have lost some close games this season as five of their six losses have come by 9 points or less, including a 1-point loss at St. Joe's and a 3-point loss to San Diego.

But this team is playing much better coming in, and they're coming off their best performance of the season.  They went on the road and beat a quality LaSalle team 66-53 as 7.5-point underdogs, covering the spread by 20.5 points.  I look for them to build off that win and to give South Carolina a run for its money tonight.

The Gamecocks have benefited from playing about as easy of a schedule as you could find.  Their eight wins have come against Norfolk State, Oral Robers, DePaul, Hofstra, Tulsa, Lipscomb, Western Carolina and South Florida.  They have yet to play a true road game this season.  Seven of their eight wins have come by 18 points or less, too.

Both teams are playing with 9 days rest in between games, but the Gamecocks are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games when playing with 7 or more days rest.  Head coach Frank Martin is a general-type coach, and these Gamecock players probably haven't enjoyed the last nine days of practice time.  South Carolina is 0-6 ATS in home games on Tuesday nights over the last three seasons.  The Dragons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Gamecocks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take Drexel Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -3.5

Having lost two straight games to Atlanta and Washington by a combined 6 points, the Dallas Mavericks are going to be highly motivated for a win today to avoid going 0-3 on this 3-game home stand.  They had gone on the road and beaten Washington and New York in their previous two games.

The Mavericks are not only going to be the more motivated team, they are going to be the fresher one as well.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here.  They have won their last two meetings with the Suns, including a 111-95 road win in their only meeting this season on October 28.

The Suns are in a much tougher spot.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after their 108-101 home win over the Timberwolves Sunday.  The Suns will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days and their 9th game in 14 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  I don't expect the Suns to be able to match the Mavericks' energy level tonight.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 110 points or more are 69-32 (68.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Phoenix is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic -2.5

The Orlando Magic are hungry for a victory after losing two straight to Phoenix and Cleveland coming in to fall to 12-11 on the season.  They have now had two days off since that loss to the Cavaliers on Friday to fix their problems, and I look for them to come back with a great effort tonight against the lowly Brooklyn Nets.

The Magic are clearly one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  First-year head coach Scott Skiles has his players buying in to playing defense, and it is showing in the early going.  The Magic rank 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 99.3 points per 100 possessions allowed.

The Nets are one of the worst teams in the NBA this season at 7-16.  They rank 20th in defensive efficiency, giving up 103.2 points per 100 possessions.  They are 27th in offensive efficiency, scoring just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  They are getting outscored by 5.6 points per 100 possessions, while the Magic are outscoring teams by 0.1 points per 100 possessions.

Orlando is 11-2 ATS off two straight games being called for 5-plus more fouls than its opponent over the last two seasons.  The Magic are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Magic are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the Magic Monday.