20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Seton Hall -4

The Seton Hall Pirates are loaded this season.  They returned four starters from a team that went 21-12 last season.  They have four double-digit scorers back in Khadeen Carrington (17.1 ppg), Desi Rodriquez (15.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg), Angel Delgado (15.2 ppg, 13.1 rpg) and Myles owell (10.7 ppg).  They led the Big East in rebounding margin and were 13th nationally.

The Pirates have opened 4-0 this season with four double-digit victories.  They are taking care of business and should continue doing so here against Rhode Island, which is 2-1 with an 81-88 road loss to Nevada already.

The Rams were 25-10 last year and made the NCAA Tournament, but they lost two key pieces from that team in Hassan Martin (13.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and Kuran Iverson (9.6 ppg, 7.3 rpg).  They were supposed to have three starters back, including leading scorer E.C. Matthews (14.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg), but Matthews is currently sidelined with a knee injury.  That leaves the Rams short-handed and far less talented than Seton Hall.

Plays on a favorite (SETON HALL) - off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with four starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 49-22 (69%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pirates are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss.  Bet Seton Hall Thursday.

15* Arkansas/Oklahoma CBB Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma -1.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are flying under the radar early in the season.  That's because they went 11-20 last season in what was clearly a rebuilding year.  But now with four starters back and one of the best head coaches in the country in Lon Kruger, the Sooners are prime bounce-back candidates in 2017.

The Sooners have opened 2-0 and are hitting on all cylinders offensively, scoring 108 points in each of those two wins.  Now they have had over a week to prepare for Arkansas and this PK 80 Invitational in Oregon having last played on November 15th.  They'll be ready to go.

Conversely, Arkansas is going to take a big step back after a 26-10 season last year.  The Razorbacks lose their two best players in Dusty Hannahs (14.4 ppg) and Moses Kingsley (12.4 ppg, 7.7 rpg).  They do return two key players in Jaylen Barford and Daryl Macon, but they aren't nearly as talented as last year.  They are without one returning starter in Dustin Thomas due to a suspension.  They are also without key bench player Arlando Cook due to suspension, leaving them lacking depth.

Plays on a favorite (OKLAHOMA) - off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with four starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 49-22 (69%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Mike Anderson is 14-27 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more as the coach of Arkansas.  The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Oklahoma is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Razorbacks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  Arkansas is 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. Big 12 opponents.  Oklahoma is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 vs. SEC foes.  Take Oklahoma Thursday.

15* Lakers/Kings ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +1

The Los Angeles Lakers are in a tough spot here.  They used a huge second half to come back and beat the Bulls at home last night 103-94.  They outscored the Bulls 61-38 after intermission to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Now they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and won't have much left in the tank for the Kings tonight.

I think the wrong team is favored here given the situation.  The Kings have been an underrated home team throughout the years, especially here over the past few weeks.  They are 3-1 in their last four home games, pulling the outright upsets over the Thunder (94-86) as 10.5-point dogs, the 76ers (109-108) as 6.5-point dogs and the Blazers (86-82) as 7-point dogs.

The Lakers are 7-21 ATS off two consecutive home games over the past two seasons.  Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS in road games versus poor offensive teams who score 98 or fewer points per game over the last three seasons.  The Kings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The Lakers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Sacramento is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

15* Warriors/Thunder ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 221

Two of the better defensive teams in the NBA square off tonight when the Warriors and Kevin Durant return to Oklahoma City to take on the new-look Thunder.  This game will be played with a high intensity level on the defensive end, which will make points harder to come by.

The Thunder rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.2 points per 100 possessions.  The Warriors are right behind them at 6th, giving up 101.4 points per 100 possessions.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 34-12 (73.9%) over the last five seasons.

The UNDER is 11-5 in Thunder last 16 home games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Thunder last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Marquette -5

Steve Wojciechowski is doing a fine job at Marquette in turning the Golden Eagles into a competitive Big East team year in and year out.  They went 19-13 last season and have one of the best shooting backcourts in the country from the 3-point line, led by Markus Howard and Andrew Rowsey.

The Golden Eagles are just 2-2 this season, but they have played a brutal schedule.  Their two losses came to two of the top teams in the country in Purdue and Wichita State, and they were competitive in both games.  Now playing LSU will be a cakewalk compared to what they have played thus far.

LSU may be one of the worst teams in the SEC this season.  They opened 3-0 against a soft schedule, but then reality set in with a 53-92 loss to Notre Dame last night.  I think they get their doors blown off again as this is a clear rebuilding year for Will Wade and company.  Plus, the Tigers lost one of their best players in Brandon Sampson (10.0 ppg) to injury against Notre Dame and he's doubtful to play tonight.

LSU is 2-11 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the past two seasons.  Marquette is 34-14 ATS in its last 48 November road games.  The Tigers are 16-30 ATS in their last 46 following a blowout loss by 20 points or more.  The Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. SEC opponents.  Take Marquette Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Heat UNDER 197.5

The biggest reason the Boston Celtics have won 16 straight games is because they have been the best defensive team in the NBA, and by a wide margin.  The Celtics rank 1st in defensive efficiency, giving up just 95.8 points per 100 possessions.

Now they are up against a Miami Heat team that is also one of the best defensive teams in the NBA when Hassan Whiteside is on the floor.  Whiteside missed a handful of games early in the season, which has the Heat's defensive numbers skewed a bit.  They rank 14th in defensive efficiency but are better than that with Whiteside.

The Heat are 26th in offensive efficiency, while the Celtics are 20th.  Both teams prefer to play at slower tempos as the Heat are 19th in pace and the Celtics 20th.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Heat last seven after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Heat last 10 games overall. 

These teams just played on October 28th in their first meeting this season.  The Celtics won that game 96-90 for 186 combined points.  I think we see a similar final here as this game stays well UNDER the 197.5-point total.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Hornets -2.5

The Charlotte Hornets are now finally healthy for the first time all season.  It is starting to pay off as they have delivered back-to-back blowout home victories over the Clippers (102-87) and the Timberwolves (118-102).  Now I expect them to get the win and cover at home tonight against the Washington Wizards.

The Wizards will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here and they haven't had two days off in a row for the entire month of December.  I think this is a tired team right now and they have lost two of their last three coming in.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Hornets and Wizards.  Indeed, the home team is 8-1 straight up in the last nine meetings.  The Hornets basically just have to win the game to cover this 2.5-point spread tonight.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Fresno State -5.5

The Fresno State Bulldogs are one of the better teams in the Mountain West Conference this season.  They returned three starters in Jaron Hopkins (13.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.2 spg last year), Jahmel Taylor (10.5 ppg, 45% 3-pointers) and Bryson Williams (7.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg), along with top reserve Deshon Taylor (12.5 ppg).   They added Pacific graduate transfer (13.4 ppg) and will have a potent starting five.

The Bulldogs have opened 2-1, blowing out their first two opponents at home before facing a tough test against SEC foe Arkansas on the road.  They lost that game 75-83, but covered as 13-point underdogs in an impressive showing.  The four returnees are having big seasons already in D. Taylor (17.7 ppg), Williams (17.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg), J. Taylor (14.3 ppg) and Hopkins (13.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 4.0 apg).  Bowles (7.3 ppg) is still finding his way with his new team.

Evansville was picked to finish last or near the bottom of the Missouri Valley coming into the season.  It's easy to see why considering they lost three starters, including leading scorer Jaylon Brown (20.9 ppg).  This is a team that went 16-17 last year, including 6-12 in MVC play.  With only two starters back, they will struggle again.

However, I think the Purple Aces are getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers and the betting public due to their 4-0 start.  But the four wins all came at home against Arkansas State, NC Central, SE Missouri State and Binghamton.  Those are four awful opponents, and they didn't beat any of them by more than 16 points.  This is a huge step up in class here for the Purple Aces having to face Fresno State.

Fresno State is 8-0 ATS off two consecutive non-conference games over the past two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in non-conference road games over the past two seasons.  Fresno State is 14-3 ATS off an ATS win over the past two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.  Fresno State is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Fresno State Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets -2

The Charlotte Hornets had Sunday off and will be rested and ready to go after beating the Los Angeles Clippers 102-87 at home on Saturday.  They had lost six in a row prior to that victory, so they should remain motivated here to get things turned around.

Conversely, the Minnesota Timberwolves played Sunday and lost 97-100 at home to the Detroit Pistons.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  I think this tough spot makes them a nice 'play against' team here today.

Plays against any team (Minnesota) after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team winning 60% to 75% of their games or more on the season are 70-33 ATS over the last five seasons.

The Timberwolves are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss.  The Hornets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.  The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Hornets Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Creighton -3

The UCLA Bruins are in a world of hurt right now with all of their suspensions.  They have three key players suspended in LiAngelo Ball, Jalen Hill and Cody Riley.  

Being this short-handed nearly cost them as they needed overtime to beat lowly Central Arkansas 106-101 despite being 27.5-point favorites.  They are 0-3 ATS, only beating GA Tech 63-60 as 9.5-point favorites and South Carolina State 96-68 as 36-point favorites.

Creighton has reloaded nicely this season.  Marcus Foster (19.3 PPG) and Khyri Thomas (17.7 ppg) are playing out of their minds thus far in leading the Bluejays to a 3-0 start, which includes an impressive 92-88 road win over ranked Northwestern as 5.5-point dogs.

UCLA IS 1-8 ATS against good offensive teams coring 84 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Roll with Creighton Monday.

15* Nuggets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -5

After a slow start to the season, the Denver Nuggets have played up to their potential of late by going 8-3 in their last 11 games overall.  They are coming off their best performance of the season, a 146-114 win over the Pelicans. 

Now, the Nuggets are only being asked to lay 5 points to the struggling Lakers.  And this is a good situation for the Nuggets, who will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  They’ll be rested and ready to go tonight. 

The Lakers have lost five of their last six coming in, including a 113-122 home loss to the Suns last time out.  They will be playing their 7th game in 12 days.  Lonzo Ball has looked like a bust up to this point and has been getting benched in the 4th quarter. 

The Nuggets have gone 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Lakers.  Denver is 7-1 ATS in its last eight meetings in Los Angeles.  The Nuggets are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 after scoring 125 or more points in their previous game.  Los Angeles is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 after playing two consecutive home games.  Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Boise State +2

I have been fading the Iowa State Cyclones regularly the early going because they lost four starters from last year and their leading returning scorer was Donavan Jackson (6.4 ppg). It has paid off so far as the Cyclones are 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS.  

I won against them taking Missouri and Appalachian State and am upset I didn’t fade them against Milwaukee and Tulsa.  I won’t make that mistake again today. Now Iowa State plays a Boise State team that is the second-best squad they have faced this year outside Missouri.  

The Broncos returned three starters from last year and are a veteran bunch.  They have opened 4-0 with some quality wins over UTEP and Illinois State in the first two games of this tournament. 

Boise State is 8-1 ATS off three consecutive non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 off an upset win by 10 points or more as a dog.  The wrong team is favored in this game today folks.  Take Boise State Sunday.

15* Kings/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 199

The Portland Trail Blazers and Sacramento Kings are playing a home-and-home situation here.  They just played last night with the Kings upsetting the Blazers 86-82 as 7-point home dogs. 

I always like backing the UNDER in the second game of these home-and-home situations because familiarity favors defense.  And after they combined for just 168 points last night, I don’t know how the oddsmakers can justify setting this total at 199 a night later.  I think there’s all kinds of value with the UNDER here, especially with how poor the Kings have been offensively this season and how good the Blazers have been defensively. 

Note: I locked this line in at 199 as soon as I could, and it has dropped quite a bit since the opener.  I would still recommend a bet on the UNDER all the way down to 193.   Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Grizzlies UNDER 214.5

Amazingly, the Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets will already be playing for a fourth and final time this season.  Familiarity favors defense, which is why I really like this UNDER tonight in their fourth meeting. 

It’s easy to see that this total has been inflated when you look at the results of the three previous meetings.  The Grizzlies and Rockets have combined for 188, 192 and 207 points in those three meetings.   

That’s an average of just 195.7 combined points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight’s posted total of 214.5.  We’re essentially getting 19 points of value.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on South Dakota State +22

The Kansas Jayhawks are in a massive letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off a 65-61 win over Kentucky in Chicago on Tuesday.  There's no way they''ll be able to get up for South Dakota State tonight after just playing for Kentucky.

South Dakota State (3-0) is coming off an NCAA Tournament appearance a year ago, advancing as the champion of the Summit League Tournament before falling to eventual runner-up Gonzaga.

The Jackrabbits, favorites to claim the Summit League title, are coming off a 94-63 rout of Alabama State on Tuesday. They have outscored opponents by 22 points on average, with 13.0 3-point goals made and 44.8 percent shooting from that range.

"I was really happy with how our guys shared the ball once we got into a rhythm offensively," South Dakota State coach T.J. Otzelberger said after the Jackrabbits had 23 assists against Alabama State. "Our guys are really sharing it. Obviously when you make a lot of 3-point shots that's going to happen, but I thought a lot of the guys gave great contributions."

Forward Mike Daum was the preseason player of the year in the Summit League and averages team-highs of 21.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, 4.0 blocks and 3.0 steals. The 6-9 junior has two double-doubles.

Kansas is 0-6 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Jack Rabbits are 20-5 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the past three seasons.  Roll with South Dakota State Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Wizards UNDER 209

This is a home-and-home situation.  The Wizards beat the Heat 102-93 on Wednesday.  Now they play each other just two days later on Friday.  They're obviously familiar with one another now, and familiarity favors defense.  That's why I like the UNDER in this home-and-home situation.

After all, they combined for just 195 points in their first meeting on Wednesday.  Now the books have set this number clear up at 209, which is 14 points more than they combined for on Wednesday.  I think we see a similar result here with under 200 combined points.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MIAMI) - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 52-24 (68.4%) since 1996.

Miami is 14-4 UNDER in road games when revenging a loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Wizards last six games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Heat last six games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Miami's last eight games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat +5.5

This is one of my favorite situations in the NBA.  It's a home-and-home situation between the Miami Heat and Washington Wizards.  Washington beat Miami 102-93 on Wednesday, outscoring the Heat 31-19 in the fourth quarter to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. 

Now, playing two days later, the Heat will be the team out for revenge, and thus the more motivated squad.  A lot of being successful in the NBA is handicapping motivation, and there's no question the Heat are the team you want tonight given this home-and-home situation.

That was a rare win for the Wizards in this series as the Heat are still 5-1 straight up in the last six meetings, winning outright as underdogs in three of those.  I think they get their revenge and win this game outright, though we'll take the 5.5 points for some added insurance.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Heat are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 meetings in Washington.

Miami is a perfect 10-0 ATS in road games after failing to score the spread in two or more consecutive games over the past two seasons.  It is coming back to win these road games 102.0 to 100.5 on average.  The Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Miami is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 road games.  Bet the Heat Friday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona -24

I think Arizona is actually showing value as 'only' 24-point favorites tonight because of the fact that they have opened 0-2 ATS this season.  But both losses came by a half-point as they beat Northern Arizona 101-67 as 34.5-point favorites in a 34-point win, and htey beat MD-Balt County 103-78 as 25.5-point favorites in a 25-point win.

CS Bakersfield won't be able to hang with them today.  This is a Bakersfield team that was good last season, but won't be this season due to all they lost.  They lost their best three players in Jaylin Airington (14.3 ppg), Dedrick Basile (12.6 ppg) and Matt Smith (10.1 ppg, 5.7 rpg).  Their only two returning starters are Brent Wrapp (4.7 ppg) and Shon Briggs (7.4 ppg).

Head coach Rod Barnes didn't bring in any junior college reinforcements as he usually does, instead electing to go young with five freshmen.  There will be early-season struggles, and there already has been.  After beating Whittier 88-66, Bakersfield went on the road and lost 53-77 to a bad Georgia Southern team.  If Georgia Southern can beat them by 24, Arizona should have no problem winning by more than that margin tonight.

Plays against a road team (CS-BAKERSFIELD) - good defensive team from last season - allowed 64 or less points/game, with just two starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Sean Miller is 11-1 ATS after a game where his team made 60% of their shots or better in all games he has coached.  Bet Arizona Thursday.

15* Warriors/Celtics TNT Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 216

The biggest reason the Boston Celtics have been able to win 13 straight games is because they bring it defensively every night.  In fact, the Celtics rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 95.8 points per 100 possessions.  They are allowing just 94.5 points per game on 42.9% shooting on the season.

The Golden State Warriors are also one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  They rank 6th in defensive efficiency, giving up 101.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Warriors have given up 99.2 points per game in their last six contests.

Recent meetings between these teams indicate there's value with the UNDER, and the Celtics were a lot worse defensively than they are this season.  Each of the last five meetings have seen 215 or fewer points at the end of regulation.  They have averaged 201 combined points in those five meetings, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 216, giving us a ton of value with the UNDER.  They combined for 185 and 192 points in their two meetings last season.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (BOSTON) - after four or more consecutive wins against opponent after five or more consecutive wins are 34-8 (81%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Warriors last 17 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The UNDER is 13-2-1 in Celtics last 16 vs. NBA Pacific.  The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings and would be 9-1 if not for overtime.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Appalachian State +10.5

The Cyclones lost four starters from last year's team in Monte Morris (16.4 ppg, 6.2 apg), Na Mitrou-Long (15.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg), Matt Thomas (12.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and Deonte Burton (15.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg).  Their only returning starters is Solomon Young (4.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg).  They also bring back their top reserve in Donovan Jackson (6.4 ppg).  It's safe to say this is a rebuilding year in Ames, and the Cyclones' streak of six consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances is likely to come to an end.

I backed Missouri against Iowa State in the opener, and the Tigers delivered with a 74-59 victory as 6-point favorites.  But I didn't fade Iowa State in its next game because it was up against a Wisconsin-Milwaukee team that had just gone 11-24 the previous season.  That was a mistake.  Iowa State lost outright at home as 13.5-point favorites 56-74, failing to cover the spread by a whopping 31.5 points.

Now the Cyclones are being asked to lay 10.5 points on a neutral court against Appalachian State.  The Mountaineers have been impressive, winning their two games against overmatched opponents by finals of 135-34 and 93-57.  App State returns three starters from last year in Ronshad Shabazz (16.7 ppg, 66 3-pointers), Griffin Kinney (9.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg) and Tyrell Johnson (7.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg).  Plus, sophomore Isaac Johnson (6.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg) is a double-double waiting to happen and should take a big leap forward after a solid freshman season.

All four guys have made significant contributions early in the season.  Shabazz (24.5 ppg), Johnson (17.0 ppg), Kinney (9.5 ppg) and Johnson (5.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg) have played well.  And two newcomers in O'Showen Williams (10.5 ppg) and Justin Forest (9.5 ppg) have contributed as well.  The Cyclones are 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  They cannot be laying double digits here with how awful they have played.  Roll with Appalachian State Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northwestern -4.5

The Northwestern Wildcats went 24-12 last season and made the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history.  Not only did they win a game in the tournament, they took eventual national runner-up Gonzaga to the wire in the second round.

Now the Wildcats return four starters from that team.  They are G Bryant McIntosh (14.8 ppg, 5.2 apg), G/F Scottie Lindsey (14.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg), F Vic Law (12.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg) and C Derek Pardon (8.6 ppg, 8.0 rpg).  This team is loaded and ready to get back to the Big Dance under Chris Collins.

Creighton also made the NCAA Tournament last year, but only brings back two starters in Marcus Foster and Khyri Thomas, who have accounted for nearly 40 percent of the Bluejays' scoring through their first two games in wins over Yale and Alcorn State.  The Bluejays lost four key players from last year's team, including Big East Rookie of the Year Justin Patton, who was drafted 16th overall by the Chicago Bulls.

Plays against a road team (CREIGHTON) - good offensive team from last season - scored 77 or more points/game, after a blowout win by 30 points or more are 26-8 (76.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NORTHWESTERN) - good defensive team from last season that held opponents to 42% or less shooting, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 46-18 (71.9%) ATS since 1997.

The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS off two consecutive non-conference games over the past two seasons.  After two lackluster performances to start the season in wins but not covers, I think we are now getting a discount on the Wildcats as only 4.5-point favorites tonight.  They will be focused and ready to go with Creighton coming to town.  Take Northwestern Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3.5

The Milwaukee Bucks have been a completely different team since Eric Bledsoe was inserted into the lineup after being traded from the Suns.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three games with him, beating the Spurs 94-87 on the road, and the Lakers (98-90) and Grizzlies (110-103) at home.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (31.3 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 4.8 apg) is having an MVP-caliber season, but he wasn't getting much help before Bledsoe (13.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.3 apg with Milwaukee) arrived.  Now he has his help with Khris Middleton (18.0 ppg, 5.8 rpg) and Malcolm Brogdon (15.1 ppg, 4.1 apg) also playing well.

The Detroit Pistons have certainly been one of the most underrated teams up to this point, going 10-3 SU & 9-3-1 ATS through their first 13 games this season.  But they have done most of their damage at home with eight home games compared to five on the road.  And with that early success comes expectations that I don't think they can live up to.  They are getting too much respect now from oddsmakers as only 3.5-point road dogs to the Bucks tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team has gone 12-3 straight up in the last 15 meetings.  The Bucks are 6-1 straight up in their last seven home meetings with the Pistons.  Detroit is 5-15 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Bucks Wednesday.

15* Cavs/Hornets ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Charlotte +2.5

The Charlotte Hornets have had four days off between games having last played on Friday.  They will be rested and ready to go against the defending Eastern Conference champion Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  This extra time off has helped get Nic Batum ready for his season debut after missing the first 12 games with an injury.

The Hornets will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing four straight.  But all four losses came on the road, and three were by 7 points or less.  The Hornets are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, scoring 111.6 points per game and shooting 47.2% from the floor at home.

They should feast on an overrated Cavaliers team that is just 7-7 SU & 4-9-1 ATS.  The Cavs have been hit hard by injuries as they'll be playing without Isaiah Thomas, Tristan Thompson and Derrick Rose tonight.  But the biggest problem for the Cavs is they don't play defense, ranking dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency, giving up a ridiculous 111.1 points per 100 possessions.

Cleveland is 1-9 ATS as a favorite this season.  Charlotte is 11-2 ATS versus teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Heat -1

The Miami Heat will be happy to be back home following a tough six-game road trip.  They went 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS on the trip with their three losses coming to Denver (by 1), Detroit (by 9) and Golden State.  They upset the Clippers and Jazz and thumped the Suns.

Normally I don't like backing teams off a long trip like that in their first game back home, but I think we are safe to do it here tonight.  That's because Miami has had two days off since losing to the Pistons on Sunday.  It has given them time to take care of their priorities at home, and they should come out 100% focused against the Wizards tonight.

I think the Wizards are getting too much love from oddsmakers right now due to going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games.  But they have played four straight and six of their last seven at home, and the three straight wins have come against three of the worst teams in the NBA in the Lakers, Hawks and Kings.  Not to mention, they were upset by another bad team in the Mavs 99-113 as 9.5-point favorites prior to the winning streak.

The Heat simply own the Wizards.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Washington.  They were actually underdogs in three of those contests and a 1-point favorite in another.  They clearly have the Wizards figured out.  And I think their biggest advantage is the fact that they have a deep bench, while the Wizards have basically no bench, and that always seems to get overlooked.

Plays against any team (WASHINGTON) - after three consecutive covers as a favorite, in November games are 35-13 (72.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This trend makes a lot of sense and shows there is value fading teams off three consecutive covers as a favorite like the Wizards are right now.  Take the Heat Wednesday.

20* Kansas/Kentucky ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Kansas -4.5

The Kansas Jayhawks are the better team here over the Kentucky Wildcats.  They have three guys with significant experience, while the Wildcats are starting five freshmen and playing eight freshmen in their rotation.

Kansas returns senior G Devonte Graham (13.4 ppg, 4.1 apg), talented shooter Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (9.8 ppg, 3.0 rpg) and G Lagerald Vick (7.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg).  C Udoka Aubuike (5.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg) is back after being limited to 11 games as a freshman.

Kansas routed Tennessee State 92-56 in its opener.  Graham nearly had a triple-double with 10 points, seven rebounds and 12 assissts.  Freshman Marcus Garrett, the Gatorade Texas Player of the Year who nearly averaged a triple-double his senior season, finished with 10 points and 10 rebounds.

Vick was the leading scorer with 23 points.  Mykhailiuk added 15 points, Azubuike had 13 and sophomore Malik Newman added 12 points.  Newman is a former No. 2 overall recruit who transferred in from Mississippi State and had to sit out last year.

Kentucky only beat Utah Valley State 73-63 as 20.5-point favorites in its opener.  That's the same Utah Valley team that lost by 30 at Duke.  I had Vermont +13.5 against Kentucky on Sunday and watched most of that game.  Vermont nearly pulled the upset, losing 73-69.  It's clear that the Wildcats have some issues, especially shooting the ball and perimeter defense.  They are averaging just 4 made 3-pointers per game on 12 attempts per game.

I like the fact that Kansas has had three days off to get ready for Kentucky, while Kentucky has only one day to get ready for Kansas after playing on Sunday.  The Jayhawks have had the Wildcats' numbers, going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their two meetings over the past two seasons.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (KENTUCKY) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Kansas Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Brooklyn Nets +7.5

The Boston Celtics are way overvalued right now and it's time to 'sell high' on them.  The Celtics have won 12 straight since losing their first two games of the season, going 10-1-1 ATS in the process.  The betting public is all of this team now, and they're being asked to lay 7.5 points on the road to a pesky Brooklyn Nets team.

Kyrie Irving missed last game due to injury and could miss this one as well.  I also think it's a great situation to face the Celtics here.  They are coming off a huge 95-94 upset win over Toronto without Irving, and now they have an even bigger game on deck at home against Golden State Thursday night.  This is a classic sandwich spot, and I don't expect them to be 100% focused for this one like they have been up to this point.

The Nets have quietly gone 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games.  They pulled off road upset wins over Phoenix and Portland, only lost on the road to Denver by 8 as 12.5-point dogs, and barely failed to cover as 7-point dogs in an 8-point loss at Utah.  This team has been highly competitive this season and should continue being undervalued.

Plays against favorites (BOSTON) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games are 73-35 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Brooklyn is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games, and 19-7 ATS in its last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take the Nets Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3.5

We could look back to the Eric Bledsoe trade and realize the Milwaukee Bucks got an absolute steal.  Bledsoe wore out his welcome in Phoenix, but he has come back determined and motivated to show that he is still a great player in this league.  The Bucks will continue getting the best out of him this season.

In Bledsoe's two games with the Bucks, they won 94-87 at San Antonio as 4.5-point dogs, and topped the Lakers 98-90 at home as 6.5-point favorites.  Now they are only being asked to lay 3.5 points here at home to the Memphis Grizzlies.  I think this is a nice discount as the Bucks are the better team and should roll.

The Grizzlies took the league by surprise in the first couple weeks in winning five of their first six.  But now the Grizzlies have gone 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games.  They have been on the road for a long time as this will be their 5th straight road games following a 96-111 loss in Houston on Saturday.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings.  The home team is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Bucks Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on La Salle PK

The La Salle Explorers return a ton of talent from a team that went 15-15 last season, including 9-9 in A-10 play.  On the perimeter, the Explorers have a pair of guards in B.J. Johnson (17.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg last year) and Pookie Powell (13.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg) who have the skills to play in the NBA some day.

Pennsylvania is getting too much respect here due to returning four starters, but this is a team that went just 13-15 a year ago and is picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Ivy League.  They will be decent this season, but they have to win this game to cover the spread, and I don't think they can.

Penn opened with a 72-80 road loss at Fairfield despite being 3.5-point favorites.  La Salle crushed St Peters 61-40 at home, easily covering as 9.5-point favorites.  Defense was a problem for the Explorers last season, but after one game I like what I've seen in holding St. Peters to 40 points and 30.6% shooting while forcing 17 turnovers.

Pennsylvania is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as a home underdog of 3 points or less or PK.  John Giannini is 14-2 ATS after a combined score of 110 points or less as the coach of La Salle.  Roll with La Salle Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Heat/Pistons UNDER 202

The books continue to set the bar too high in Miami Heat games.  The Heat have been a completely different team since Hassan Whiteside returned to the lineup from a five-game absence.  They have allowed 101 or fewer points in five of six games since his return, including 97 or fewer four times.  He is one of the best defenders in the NBA and a perennial candidate for Defensive Player of the Year honors.

The Detroit Pistons have an eraser of their own just like Whiteside in Andre Drummond.  The Pistons have held four straight opponents to 104 or fewer points, including 99 or fewer three times.  Miami ranks 8th in defensive efficiency, giving up 101.7 points per 100 possessions.  Detroit ranks 12th, giving up 102.3 points per 100 possessions.

Both teams also prefer to play at slower paces.  Detroit ranks 21st in pace at 99.1 possessions per game, while Miami is 17th at 100.3 possessions per game.  That helps to explain why this is usually a low-scoring series when these teams get together because they both play great defense and the tempo is closer to a snail's pace.

Detroit and Miami have combined for 197 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings.  They have averaged just 195.9 combined points per game in those nine meetings, which is roughly 6 points less than today's 202-point total, showing you what kind of value we are getting.

Better yet, each of the last seven meetings in Detroit have seen 199 or fewer combined points.  They have averaged just 192.1 combined points in those seven meetings, which is 10 points less than this 202-point total.  The UNDER is 21-7-1 in Heat last 29 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The UNDER is 21-5-1 in Pistons last 27 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Vermont +13.5

This is the worst team the Kentucky Wildcats have had in some time.  It's telling that they're not ranked in the Top 10 coming into the season because they are in the Top 10 basically every year under John Calipari.

The Wildcats lost all five starters.  Their leading returning scorer is Wenyen Gabriel (4.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg), who only played 8.4 minutes per game last year.  Kentucky only beat Utah Valley State 73-63 as 20.5-point home favorites in their opener on Friday.  That result will be a sign of things to come for this team as they started five freshmen in that game.

Now Kentucky takes a big step up in class against a feisty Vermont team that went 29-6 last season and gave Purdue all it could handle in an 80-70 loss in the NCAA Tournament.  The Catamounts now return four starters from that team and each of their top four scorers.

Back is American East Player of the Year Trae-Bell Haynes (11.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 3.9 apg) at point guard.  Also back is Rookie of the Year Anthony Lamb (12.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 43 blocks), F Payton Hensen (11.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and G Ernie Duncan (8.7 ppg, 40% 3-pointers).  Quinnipiac transfer Sam Dingba becomes eligible this season.

"I think the combination of our experience and the fact that we played three exhibition games, I feel like we're as prepared as we've been heading into the early season here," head coach John Becker said. This roster is loaded from a team that won 29 games a year ago and fully capable of giving the Wildcats a run for their money today.  Take Vermont Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Grizzlies/Rockets UNDER 211

The Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets will already be meeting for a third time this season Saturday.  These teams are obviously very familiar with one another because of it, and familiarity favors defense more than offense.  I think the books have set the ball too high tonight with this 211-point total.

That's especially the case when you look at the first two meetings in this series.  Memphis won 98-90 in Houston for just 188 combined points.  The Grizzlies also won 103-89 at home over the Rockets for 194 combined points.  I'm not sure how oddsmakers can justify this 211-point total.

I think the reason it's inflated is because Houston has gone over the total in five straight.  But they have faced some terrible defensive teams during this stretch in Philadelphia, New York, Atlanta and Cleveland.  Now they'll be up against the Grizzlies, who rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.7 points per 100 possessions.

Surprisingly, Houston isn't pushing the tempo as much this season.  The Rockets rank 15th in the NBA in pace at 101.1 possessions per game, which is right int he middle of the pack.  Memphis ranks tied for 29th in pace at 97.9 possessions per game, still preferring to run at a snail's pace with their grit 'n grind mentality.

Houston is 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 home games vs. division opponents.  The UNDER is 15-5-1 in Grizzlies last 21 when playing on 3 or more days' rest.  The UNDER is 13-6 in Rockets last 19 Saturday games.  The UNDER is 24-11 in the last 35 meetings in Houston, and 4-1 in the last five meetings overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on DePaul +9

The DePaul Blue Demons will be opening their brand new $173 million Wintrust Arena in Chicago.  They want to prove that this is a basketball program on the rise, and they want to end a nine-game losing streak to Notre Dame in their 105th head-to-head meeting.

"We all obviously want to perform well," DePaul junior guard Eli Cain said in the Chicago Sun-Times. "We want to play well and win the game. We want to show that the change of DePaul's culture is real. It's not just talked about. It's not just something we can go around saying in interviews and put on social media. We want to show that that's the real deal."

Cain (15.6 ppg, 42% 3-pointers last year) is one of four returning starters for the Blue Demons.  Also back is Brandon Cyrus (6.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg), Tre'Darius McCallum (9.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and Joe Hanel (4.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg).  They add in three nice transfers led by sophomore guard Austin Grandstaff, who was previously at Ohio State and Oklahoma. 

Max Strus was a Division II All-American guard at Lewis University and scored 52 points in one game last year on 12-of-14 3-point shooting.  6-11 senior center Marin Maric averaged 14.4 ppg and 8.4 rpg at Northern Illinoi last season.  The future is very bright in Chicago for the Blue Demons, and they should be one of the most improved teams in the country after going just 9-23 last year.

Notre Dame comes in a bit overvalued as the No. 14 ranked team in the country.  They bring back Bonzie Colson and Matt Farrell, who were two key pieces on a 26-10 team last year.  But they also lose two key players in VJ Beachum (14.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg) and Steve Vasturia (13.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg).  I expect them to take a step back this season.

I think asking the Fighting Irish to go on the road in their opener and win by double-digits to beat us against a vastly improved DePaul team busting out their new arena is asking too much.  Take DePaul Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Jazz UNDER 195

The Miami Heat and Utah Jazz are two of the most defensive-minded teams in the NBA.  They both have two Defensive Player of the Year candidates at center with Hassan Whiteside for the Heat and Rudy Gobert for the Jazz.  Points will be hard to come by in this one folks.

Utah ranks 25th in the NBA in pace at 98.7 possessions per game.  Miami is 17th in pace at 100.5 possessions per game.  Utah ranks 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 101.0 points per 100 possessions.  But Utah is just 27th in offensive efficiency at 99.3 points per 100 possessions, while MIami is 23rd at 101.5 points per 100 possessions.

Miami's defensive efficiency numbers (17th, 103.9) are misleading.  Whiteside has missed five games for the Heat this season.  But since he has returned, they have been dominant on the defensive end.  They have allowed 101 or fewer points in four of their last five and an average of just 99.8 points and 41.3% shooting during this stretch.

Miami is 42-23 UNDER as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Heat's last 16 road games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Jazz last six games playing on two days' rest.  Utah and Miami have combined for 195 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* 2017 College Hoops Season Opener on Missouri -4

This is the perfect storm.  I want to fade Iowa State because of all they lost in the offseason, and I want to back Missouri because of all they bring back and gained in the offseason.  Iowa State is a clear 'sell' team, while Missouri is a clear 'buy' team.

The Cyclones lost four starters from last year's team in Monte Morris (16.4 ppg, 6.2 apg), Na Mitrou-Long (15.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg), Matt Thomas (12.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and Deonte Burton (15.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg).  Their only returning starters is Solomon Young (4.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg).  They also bring back their top reserve in Donovan Jackson (6.4 ppg).  It's safe to say this is a rebuilding year in Ames, and the Cyclones' streak of six consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances is likely to come to an end.

Missouri is a team on the rise under first-year head coach Cuonzo Martin.  The Tigers return four starters in Terrence Phillips (10.4 ppg, 4.4 apg), Jordan Geist (7.0 ppg, 2.9 rpg), Jordan Barnett (12.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg) and Kevin Puryear (11.8 ppg, 6.0 rpg).  They have a ton or returning experience, but it's the newcomers they have that has me excited about this team.

Nine days after Missouri hired Martin, the top prospect in the 2017 class, Michael Porter Jr., pledged to the Tigers.  Porter's father, Michael Sr., is on Martin's staff.  Guard Blake Harris signed with Missouri the next day, and former Illinois commit Jeremiah Tilman, a four-star prospect, was inked a month later.  In August, Jontay Porter made it official and reclassified to 2017 to join his brother and gave the Tigers another big man and five-start prospect to add to the mix.  Those four joined Texas guard C.J. Roberts and Canisius graduate transfer Kassius Robertson as Missouri's influx of talent.

This is a pretty cheap price to lay for Missouri with all of this talent in their home opener against a rebuilding team in Iowa State.  You won't find this kind of value on them as the season moves along and the betting public realizes how good this team is.  But because they went 8-24 last year, they are flying under the radar.  Bet Missouri Friday.

15* Cavs/Rockets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on OVER 228

The Houston Rockets and Cleveland Cavaliers should play in a highly entertaining shootout tonight.  They did in both meetings last season with the home team winning both.  Cleveland won 128-120 for 248 combined points, while Houston won 117-112 for 229 combined points.

The Rockets lost Patrick Beverly, their best defender, and have become even more of an offensive juggernaut this season while taking a step back defensively.  Houston ranks 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 108.4 points per 100 possessions.

That's bad news for Cleveland, which ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency by a wide margin, giving up 112.4 points per 100 possessions.  But the Cavaliers also remain an offensive juggernaut, ranking 2nd in efficiency while scoring 108.9 points per 100 possessions.  And both teams rank in the top half of the league in pace.

The OVER is 4-0 in Rockets last four games overall.  The OVER is 4-0 in Cavaliers last four games overall, combining with their opponents for 231, 252, 232 and 243 points in those four games.  That trend continues tonight as this game gets up and OVER the total.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* T'Wolves/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +11

The Minnesota Timberwolves are catching too many points on the road to the Golden State Warriors tonight.  I'll gladly scoop up the value here and take the double-digits in a game that will likely go down to the wire.

The Timberwolves are improving rapidly.  It was always going to take some time to implement the new faces in Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague and Jamal Crawford, but it appears the Timberwolves have figured it out.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  And now they come in fresh and ready to go off two days' rest after last playing on Sunday in a 112-94 win over Charlotte.

The Warriors were way overvalued to start the season, going 1-6 ATS in their first seven games.  But they have since gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four, and the betting public is being quick to back them once again.  They have been way overvalued at home, going 1-4 ATS in home games this season with two outright losses to Houston and Detroit.

Minnesota is 20-6 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  The Timberwolves are 26-13 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* Celtics/Lakers ESPN Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on OVER 211

The Los Angeles Lakers are looking to push the tempo this season.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in pace at 105.3 possessions per game.  They are starting to gel offensively, but they are still one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.

The Lakers are averaging 113.5 points per game in their last four.  But they are giving up 107.3 points per game on the season, including 113.0 points per game on the road.  "The chemistry's building," Lonzo Ball said Monday. "We're playing a lot faster, and in half-court we're cutting a lot harder. Guys are knowing where people are at now. It's getting a lot easier."

Now they're up against a young Celtics team that is also firing on all cylinders offensively right now.  The Celtics have scored 101 or more points in each of their last five games.  They have won nine in a row coming in and are averaging 107.7 points per game at home.

Boston is 12-0 OVER in home games after covering five or six of its last seven games against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 10-1 OVER after covering four of their last five against the spread over the past two seasons.  The OVER is 11-5 in Lakers last 16 road games.  The OVER is 16-5-1 in Celtics last 22 home games.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +2

The New York Knicks just can't get any respect from oddsmakers.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming to the Rockets.  They have gone on the road and beaten the Cavs by 19, while also beating the Nets by 21, Nuggets by 6, Suns by 13 and the Pacers by 7 at home.

Now the Knicks find themselves as home underdogs once again to the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  This is a bad matchup for the Hornets, who now have Dwight Howard at center.  Howard isn't going to be able to guard Kristaps Porzingis, who had games of 38, 37 and 40 points all in the span of a week during this stretch.

The Tim Hardaway contract looks good now as he's averaging 16.2 points per game.  Getting Enes Kanter in the Carmelo Anthony trade was also a nice coup.  He is averaging 13.6 points and 11.3 rebounds per game.  And Courtney Lee (10.0 PPG, 41.2% 3-pointers) remains an underrated shooting guard.  The PG-by-committee is working out just fine as well.  This is an underrated lineup.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings.  The Hornets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Roll with the Knicks Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks +10.5

The Dallas Mavericks are 1-10 SU & 2-9 ATS on the season.  They have clearly been overvalued up to this point, and the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now.  That makes this the perfect time to 'buy low' on the Mavs in the immediate future.

The Washington Wizards are 5-4 this season but just 4-5 ATS.  And three of their five wins came by 5 points or less, so they have only won two games by double-digits.  They aren't blowing teams out on the regular, and I certainly want to fade them in this spot.

The Wizards are overvalued off their 107-96 win in Toronto as 6.5-point dogs on Sunday.  They have now played the Cavs and Raptors in back-to-back games, two of the best teams in the East.  It's going to be hard for them to get up for the Mavericks now tonight.

John Wall is battling a shoulder injury that forced him to miss the Toronto game.  It would be smart of Scott Brooks to give him another day off here against a team like the Mavericks, so while he is questionable it would surprise me if he plays.

The Mavs are in a stretch right now where they will be playing just one game in a seven-day stretch.  They have gotten extra practice time after a brutal schedule to start the season with three back-to-backs already.  That also makes them a 'buy on' team going forward.

"We haven't had a practice in a long time because of the way the schedule has fallen," Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle told the Dallas Morning News. "That's a very important practice for us, to shore some things up, to work on avoiding the catastrophic turnovers, do a better job of rebounding the ball, those kinds of things."

The Mavericks are 13-1 straight up in their last 14 meetings with the Wizards.  The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Washington is 10-24-1 ATS in its last 35 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Washington.  Dallas is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings overall.  Take the Mavericks Tuesday.

20* Heat/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 226

The Miami Heat have been playing much better defense since Hassan Whiteside returned from a five-game absence due to injury.  Whiteside has played in the last three games, all of which have gone UNDER the total.  He is one of the best shot-blockers in the NBA and doesn't allow many easy  buckets in the paint.

The Heat beat the Bulls 97-91 for 186 combined points, they lost to the Nuggets 94-95 for 189 combined points, and they beat the Clippers 104-101 for 205 combined points.  I think we see a bigger defensive battle than the books are expecting tonight against the Golden State Warriors with this massive 226-point total.

Both meetings between Miami and Golden State went UNDER the total last year.  The Warriors won 107-95 at home over the Heat for just 202 combined points.  The Heat pulled the upset at home 105-102 for 207 combined points.  Asking these teams to get to 227 or more to beat us is asking a lot tonight.

Miami is 13-2 UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 28-15 in all Miami road games over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat last five games vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Heat last five games when playing on zero days' rest.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets +1.5

The Brooklyn Nets fit a couple of situations that I like tonight against the Phoenix Suns.  The main reason for the pick is that this is a revenge game.  Brooklyn lost to Phoenix 114-122 at home on October 31st less than a week ago.  So the Nets will be out for revenge and should get it tonight.

The Phoenix Suns are in a very tough spot here.  They are coming off a five-game road trip, and I usually like fading teams in that first game back home following a long trip.  Adding to the tough spot for the Suns is that they will be playing the second of a back-to-back after losing 95-112 in San Antonio last night.  It will also be the 5th game in 7 days for Phoenix.

Meanwhile, the Nets have had two days' rest to get ready for the Suns after last playing on Friday.  So they will be the fresher team.  The Suns had a nice run after making the head coaching change with five straight covers, but their bubble has been burst in their last two with a 13-point loss to the Knicks and that 17-point loss to the Spurs.

Brooklyn is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 road games when playing four or less games in 10 days.  The Nets are 41-19-2 ATS in their last 62 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Suns are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Suns are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Roll with the Nets Monday.

15* Grizzlies/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +2.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are in a tough spot here.  They are playing the second of a back-to-back after pulling off the 113-104 upset win over the Los Angeles Clippers yesterday.  They don't have to travel as they will face the Lakers in Staples Center, but I guarantee Memphis players went out and partied last night in Los Angeles and won't be focused for Game 2 of this back-to-back.

The Grizzlies are already banged up with both Mike Conley and Marc Gasol nursing injuries.  Wayne Selden and JaMychal Green are also out with injuries.  Don't be surprised if they play this situation cautiously and at least limit the minutes of both Gasol and Conley.

The Lakers are vastly improved this season.  They have won two of their last three while going 3-0 ATS.  They beat the Pistons 113-93 and the Nets 124-112 at home.  Their only loss came 110-113 in Portland as 6.5-point dogs.  I really like the way this team is playing right now, especially offensively.

The Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Memphis is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record.  The Lakers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall, including 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Grizzlies are 1-5-3 ATS in their last nine meetings in Los Angeles.  Take the Lakers Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Clippers UNDER 207.5

The Miami Heat and Los Angeles Clippers boast two of the best defensive centers in the NBA.  It's Hassan Whiteside of the Heat up against De'Andre Jordan of the Clippers.  Both guys are going to make it difficult for the opposition to find easy baskets in the paint in this one.

Whiteside missed five straight games for the Heat, and there were some high-scoring games in there.  But he returned for the last two, and it's no surprise we have seen two straight defensive battles from the Heat.  They beat the Bulls 97-91 for 186 combined points and the Nuggets 95-94 for 189 combined points in those two contests.

The Clippers are coming off three straight overs, but that is the reason this line is inflated.  They opened the season with five straight UNDERS, and that's the team that we can expect to see going forward.  The Clippers are built on defense with Jordan and elite PG defender Patrick Beverly leading the way.

Thhe UNDER is a perfect 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Heat and Clipppers.  They have combined for 200 or fewer points in each of those five meetings.  They have averaged just 193 combined points over those five games, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 207.5.  We are getting a ton of value here on the UNDER as you can see.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS on the season.  They are coming off a 21-point beat down of Dallas and are very healthy right now, plus they've had two days' rest to get ready for the Grizzlies.

Memphis started fast but hit the skids due to injuries.  The Grizzlies lost to both the Hornets and Magic at home in each of their last two games.  Now they are going to have their hands full with one of the best teams they have faced this year in the Clippers.

Mike Conley is dealing with an Achilles injury, though he is supposed to play tonight.  Marc Gasol sat out last game and is questionable to return with an ankle injury.  Wayne Selden missed last game and is questionable with a quad injury.  And JaMychal Green is out indefinitely with an ankle injury.  I just don't see how the Grizzlies can be competitive tonight give their current state.

The Clippers have owned the Grizzlies in recent meetings, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  All four of their wins have come by 9 points or more and by an average of 15.5 points per game.  The Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.  The Clippers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Take the Clippers Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +5.5

The Miami Heat finally returned to near full strength last time out against the Chicago Bulls.  Hassan Whiteside made his return from a five-game absence, and they promptly dispatched the Bulls 97-91.  They had lost their three previous games without Whiteside, though two of those went right down to the wire with a 90-96 loss to the Celtics and a 122-125 (OT) loss to the Timberwolves.

I think with Whiteside back now, this team should get back to playing the way they did in the second half of last year.  They were one of the best teams in the entire NBA in the second half.  And now that they've started the season 0-5-2 ATS, they are grossly undervalued right now because the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Heat.

And I love the spot here fading the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets are coming off a huge 129-111 home win over the Raptors.  So they were already going to be in a letdown spot, but now they're also in a lookahead spot with an even bigger game coming up tomorrow against the Golden State Warriors.  The Nuggets won't be giving the Heat the full attention that they deserve to be able to cover this lofty 5.5-point spread.

Miami is a perfect 9-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games over the past two seasons.  The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Nuggets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Roll with the Heat Friday.

15* Cavs/Wizards ESPN Friday No-Brainer on OVER 221

The Washington Wizards have been lighting up the scoreboard this season.  They are averaging 112.3 points per game while ranking 5th in offensive efficiency.  But they are also giving up 108.1 points per game and just allowed 122 to the Phoenix Suns last time out.

The Wizards will have their way with a Cleveland Cavaliers team that has really been struggling on the defensive end.  The Cavs allow 111.9 points per game while ranking 29th in defensive efficiency, giving up 111.3 points per 100 possessions.

And now the Cavaliers lost their best defender in Tristan Thompson to a 3-4 week calf injury last time out.  So that means they are going to have to go even smaller with Jamison Crowder taking Thompson's place.  And they have to go small anyways to match up with Washington's elite small-ball starting 5 lineup.

This has the makings of an up-tempo, shootout, and that has been the case the last two times these teams got together.  The Cavs beat the Wizards 140-135 in Washington, while the Wizards won 127-115 in Cleveland in their final two meetings of 2016-17.

The OVER is 23-11 in Cavs' last 34 games overall.  The OVER is 27-9 in Cavs' last 36 games following a loss.  The OVER is 12-2 in Cavs' last 14 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The OVER is 9-2 in Cavs' last 11 Friday games.  The OVER is 10-1 in Wizards' last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Washington.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Warriors/Spurs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Golden State -7

We're getting the Golden State Warriors at a discount tonight due to their poor start to the season against the spread.  They have been a bigger favorite than this in seven of their eight games thus far.  They have gone just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.

But they got right with a 141-113 win over the Los Angeles Clippers as 6-point road favorites on Monday.  They have since had two days off to get ready for the Spurs and build off their best performance of the season thus far.  The end of October used to be the traditional start to the NBA season, so head coach Steve Kerr simply acted as if he were back in his playing days when he spoke to his team.

"That looked like us," Kerr said. "I told the guys that tomorrow is Halloween, which means that (Monday) was opening night. Training camp is over, so we're back to being us."

"Our defense and our turnovers have been kind of our Achilles' heel so far," Stephen Curry said. "Scoring the ball hasn't been a problem. It's just the other things we need to do to be a well-rounded team and the team we expect to be. (Against the Clippers), our defensive effort got us to where we wanted to be, and we kind of controlled the game from the start. We took care of the basketball -- we played Warriors basketball, and now we have to sustain it."

San Antonio just lost three straight games on the road to Orlando (87-114), Indiana (94-97) and Boston (94-108).  The Spurs are really struggling right now with all of their new faces due to the injuries to Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker and Joffrey Lauvergne.  All three will miss this game against tonight, and the Spurs just have no chance of even being competitive against the Warriors without them.

We saw that play out in the playoffs last year.  Leonard was injured in the 111-113 Game 1 loss to the Warriors.  They were promptly swept as he missed the rest of the series, losing by 36 in Game 2, by 12 in Game 3 and by 14 in Game 4.  I see no way this isn't a double-digit victory in the Warriors' favor tonight.

Golden State is 55-32 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons.  I like backing them a lot more in this role than the double-digit role they have been so far this season.  Roll with the Warriors Thursday.

20* Mavs/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 205

The Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers both prefer to play at a slow tempo.  The Mavericks rank 28th in pace at 97.4 possessions per game, while the Clippers are 17th at 100 possessions per game.

The Clippers were the top team in defensive efficiency before playing the Warriors last time out, losing 113-141.  That skewed all of their numbers.  The Clippers had had allowed an average of just 92.4 points per game and no team had shot better than 43% against them until the Warriors hung 141 points and shot 58.4%.

Now the Clippers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder defensively after that awful performance.  They'll be up against a Mavericks team that is struggling to find easy buckets.  The Mavs rank 23rd in offensive efficiency and are scoring just 98.2 points per game on the season, including 90.3 points per game on the road.  And now they may be missing rookie first-round pick Dennis Smith at point guard, who is questionable.

The Clippers are 48-26 UNDER as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DALLAS) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a terrible team (winning 25% or less) playing a team with a winning record are 23-5 (82.1%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver Nuggets -1

The Denver Nuggets are have faced a rough schedule in the early going with five of their first seven games at home.  After a 3-4 start, they'll be motivated to get it turned around.  They have an excellent chance to do just that as a six-game homestand starts with Wednesday's tilt against the Toronto Raptors.

The Raptors are in the midst of a tough road trip of their own and it may start catching up to them sooner rather than later.  They have played four straight games out West against the Spurs, Warriors, Lakers and Blazers.  After winning their last two, they come into this game overvalued.

Denver is going to want revenge from two losses to the Raptors by a combined 5 points last season.  They lost 102-105 on the road, and 111-113 at home.  But the Nuggets covered the spread in both games and are now 27-13 ATS in their last 40 meetings with the Raptors.  Look for them to have their revenge at home tonight.

The Nuggets are 28-16 ATS off a loss over the last two seasons.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TORONTO) - after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 48-20 (70.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Nuggets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -3.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are in a tough spot here Wednesday.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing 91-110 at home to the Thunder last night.  Now they have to travel to Charlotte and face an upstart Hornets team that has been playing better since getting healthy.

The Hornets were missing several key pieces early in the season, but they are healthy outside of Nic Batum now.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last three games, beating the Nuggets by 17 and the Magic by 7 at home, while also upsetting the Grizzlies by 5 on the road as 5.5-point dogs.

And you can bet the Hornets will be ready for this game.  They have had a day off to get ready for a rematch with the Bucks after losing to them 94-103 in Milwaukee on October 23rd just a week ago.  They let that game get away from them in the closing minutes as they actually led most the way.  Look for them to avenge that loss tonight.  Take the Hornets Wednesday.

15* Pistons/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Detroit Pistons have been grossly undervalued up to this point.  They have gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their first seven games to start the season.  I may be looking to back this team in the near future, but right now is not the time.

The Pistons are now overvalued here laying 4.5 points on the road to the Los Angeles Lakers.  They are getting a lot of love now thanks to back-to-back road wins over the Clippers and Warriors.  Off those two monster wins, this is now a massive letdown spot for the Pistons after beating the defending champs.

The Lakers have lost back-to-back games to the Raptors and Jazz and are not getting much love in the markets because of it.  But they have had two days off coming into this game, while the Pistons will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, giving the Lakers the advantage in rest and preparation as well.

Plays against favorites (DETROIT) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Detroit is 0-8 ATS in road games vs. poor 3-point shooting teams who make 33% or fewer of their attempts over the last two seasons.  They are losing these games by a whopping 17.3 points per game on average.  Detroit is 3-13 ATS off two more more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 18-38 ATS in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in Los Angeles.  Roll with the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Mavericks +8

The Utah Jazz are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in the early going.  They opened the season by going 3-0 ATS in their first three games with home wins over Denver and Oklahoma City, and a road win at Minnesota.  That quick start has them overvalued.

The Jazz have come back down to reality since.  They have gone 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games. They lost by 16 on the road to the Clippers, and by 9 on the road to the Suns.  They did beat the Lakers by 15 at home, but the Lakers were playing the second of a back-to-back.

Conversely, the Mavs are undervalued right now due to their 1-6 start.  They weren't very competitive in their first four games, but their last three have been a different story.  They beat Memphis 103-94 at home, only lost 91-96 in Memphis as 5-point dogs, and only lost 110-112 at home to the 76ers.  Now they are catching 8 points against the Jazz in a game that is likely to go down to the wire.

Three of the last six meetings between Utah and Dallas have gone to overtime, which just shows you how close this series has been.  And the Mavs have only lost once by more than 5 points to the Jazz in their last seven meetings.

Dallas is 32-16 ATS after having lost three of its last four games over the past three seasons.  Utah is 0-9 ATS in home games after covering four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia 76ers +6.5

It's amazing that two teams from different conferences will be meeting for a second time this early in the season.  But that's the scenario we have here as the Philadelphia 76ers visit the Houston Rockets for a rematch.

The Rockets won the first meeting 105-104 as 3-point road favorites over the 76ers.  Eric Gordon hit the game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer to give the Rockets the win.  You can bet the 76ers are going to want their revenge tonight as they'll be the more motivated team, which is why I like getting 6.5 points with them in the rematch.

This 76ers team is coming off three straight covers and is playing very well right now.  They won 87-76 in Detroit and 112-110 in Dallas before and after that game against Houston.  The Rockets have been overvalued quite a bit, going 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall, including an 89-103 loss in Memphis last time out.  Injuries have been a big problem for them as Chris Paul remains out, while Gordon is questionable today.

Mike D'Antoni is 5-15 ATS off two straight road games as the coach of Houston.  D'Antoni is 2-12 ATS in home games versus good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game as the coach of Houston.  The 76ers are 43-16-1 ATS in their last 60 vs. Western Conference opponents. 

Philadelphia is 24-8 ATS in its last 32 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The 76ers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games.  The Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record.   Houston is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Take the 76ers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Hornets -3

The Orlando Magic are getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 4-1 start to the season.  They are coming off a home win over the short-handed San Antonio Spurs and are now in a massive letdown spot off that big win.

The Charlotte Hornets have dealt with injuries of their own, but they are starting to get healthy outside of Nic Batum.  And this is one of the more underrated teams in the NBA in my opinion.  They should be laying more than 3 points at home to the Magic here.

The Hornets simply own the Magic.  They have won seven straight meetings while going 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The last three meetings in Charlotte have resulted in double-digit blowout victories by 40, 21 and 14 points.  Expect more of the same in their first meeting of 2017.  Bet the Hornets Sunday.

15* Pistons/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 208

The Los Angeles Clippers are more of a defensive team now that they swapped out Chris Paul for Patrick Beverly.  Their offense doesn't run as efficiently because Beverly is not a scorer and they lost Jamaal Crawford, so this team is hanging hats on defense led by Beverly and DeAndre Jordan.

The Clippers currently rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 91.9 points per 100 possessions, which is 4 points less per game than 2nd-place Boston.  And the Clippers aren't playing with much tempo offensively, ranking 19th in pace at 99.8 possessions per game.

Detroit also prefers to play at a slower tempo ranking 17th in pace at 99.9 possessions per game.  And the Pistons also are a team that relies on defense more than offense, ranking 14th in defensive efficiency at 102.7 points per 100 possessions allowed.

The head-to-head numbers also favor the UNDER.  The Pistons and Clippers have combined for 205 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last six meetings, making for a perfect 6-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 208.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DETROIT) - team who made 6 or more 3 point shots/game last season, after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 46-15 (75.4%) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Jazz UNDER 203

The Utah Jazz have been an UNDER machine this season, and we'll continue riding their unders here against the Los Angeles Lakers.  This total of 203 has clearly been inflated and I think there is still value with the UNDER.

The UNDER is 4-0-1 in all Jazz games this season.  The reason for that is the Jazz rank 28th in pace this season, averaging just 97.3 possessions per game.  The Jazz rank 8th in defensive efficiency but just 26th in offensive efficiency.  The loss of Gordon Hayward makes this team even more of a worse offensive unit than last year, and they are probably even better off defensively.

The Lakers have been held to 92 or fewer points at the end of regulation in three of their five games this season. They have played well defensively in their last two games, giving up 99 points to the Wizards in OT and 101 points to the Raptors.  And they played Toronto last night, meaning their be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  It will hurt them more offensively than defensively.

The head-to-head history also favors the UNDER.  The Lakers and Jazz have combined for 202 or fewer points in 10 of their last 11 meetings.  That makes for a 10-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to today's total set of 203.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1

The Houston Rockets are in a tough spot here.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days.  They are a tired team right now, and making matters worse is that they are without two starters in Chris Paul and Trevor Ariza, as well as key bench player Nene Hilario.

The Memphis Grizzlies had yesterday off and will be fresh and ready to go.  The Grizzlies are 4-1 this season and one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  One of those wins came 98-90 in Houston as 8-point dogs as well.

So this will be a revenge game for the Rockets, but I don't think the revenge factor outweighs the tough spot for the Rockets with the no rest and the injuries.  And the Grizzlies are only 1-point favorites here, so they only need to win the game to cover.

Plays on home favorites (MEMPHIS) - marginal winning team from last season who won between 51% and 60% of their games, vs. division opponents are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Rockets are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win.  The Rockets are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Memphis.  Take the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -2

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for their first victory of the season tonight.  They have opened 0-3 with two road losses to Oklahoma City and Boston, and a blown 20-point lead in a 107-111 home loss to the Detroit Pistons.

But the Knicks have had plenty of time to practice and get ready for this game against the Nets.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here tonight.  And they are very healthy with only Jaokim Noah out right now.

The same cannot be said for the Nets, who are going to be playing without their two best guards in D'Angelo Russell and Jeremy Lin.  The Nets have played five games already and will be playing their 4th game in 6 days. 

This is a massive letdown spot for these young Nets, who are coming off an upset 112-107 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers as 8-point dogs.  The Nets have gone 3-0 at home, but they're 0-2 on the road with losses to the Pacers and Magic.  The Knicks are good enough to beat them here, especially given the spot advantages with the rest and letdown for Brooklyn.

The Knicks are 8-0 ATS in home games off a road loss to a division rival over the last three seasons.  They are actually winning by 9.0 points per game on average in this spot.  New York is 15-3 ATS in home games off a division game over the last three years.  Brooklyn is 13-27 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days over the last three years.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take the Knicks Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets +3

The Houston Astros are way overvalued right now.  They lost 90-98 as 8-point home favorites against Memphis, and hit a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer to beat the 76ers 105-104 as 3-point road favorites.  They failed to cover in both games, and they'll fail to do so again here on the road against the Charlotte Hornets.

This is a Hornets team that I expect to be a sleeper in the East.  They have gone 2-0 at home, beating the Hawks by 18 and the Nuggets by 17.  And they haven't even been fully healthy.  But they got two key pieces back from injury in Malik Monk and Michael Gidd-Gilchrist prior to the Nuggets game, and they will be a dangerous team moving forward.

The Rockets are far from healthy, and they lost a lot of their depth when they traded for Chris Paul while losing Lou Williams and Patrick Beverly to the Clippers.  So far, so good for the 4-0 Clippers.  And now Paul is out for a few weeks with a knee injury.  Fellow starter Trevor Ariza is out with a foot injury, and they really miss him because he's their best defender and a great 3-point shooter.  And key bench player Nene Hilario is doubtful tonight with an Achilles injury.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - off a road win by 3 points or less are 73-34 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Houston is 9-20 ATS off a road win over the last two years.  The Hornets are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The home team is 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Roll with the Hornets Friday.

15* Pelicans/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -2

The New Orleans Pelicans are likely to be without their best player in Anthony Davis for this game.  Davis suffered a knee injury that forced him out after five minutes against the Blazers last time out, and the Pelicans went on to lose that game 93-103.

I keep wanting to fade the Pelicans because Alvin Gentry called DeMarcus Cousins their best 3-point shooter.  That just shows the lack of shooting on this team.  And you'll hear a lot about Cousins wanting revenge on his former team leading up to this game, but what about Buddy Hield for the Kings?  He'll want the same thing against the Pelicans.

The Pelicans are 1-3 this season, but all three losses came by 8 points or more.  The Kings are also 1-3, but two of their losses came by 2 and 5 points.  I just don't know what the Pelicans are going to be able to do without Davis, especially against an improved Kings defense that is allowing 101.5 points per game this season.  The Pelicans give up a ridiculous 111.5 points per game.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team has won three straight, and the home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Sacramento is a perfect 8-0 ATS off a loss to a division rival over the last two seasons.  The Pelicans are 6-18-1 ATS in the last 25 meetings in Sacramento.  Roll with the Kings Thursday.

15* Celtics/Bucks TNT Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Boston +4.5

The Boston Celtics don't have to wait long for their shot at revenge against the Milwaukee Bucks.  They lost to the Bucks 108-100 at home on October 18th just a week ago.  But that was an awful spot for the Celtics as they were coming off a 99-102 loss to the Cavs the night before on opening night, and they were still reeling emotionally from the season-ending injury to Gordon Hayward.

Now the Celtics have had some time to get off the loss of Hayward and have really shown some nice fight in two games since.  They beat the 76ers 102-92 as 3-point road dogs next time out, then crushed New York 110-89 as 7-point home favorites on Tuesday.  The Celtics will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days, so they've had plenty of practice time to fine-tune things moving forward.

The Bucks are 3-1 this season but are overvalued because of it.  They barely beat the Blazers 113-110 at home, and needed a huge finish to the fourth quarter to pull away from the Hornets for a 103-94 victory.  They had lost to the Cavs 97-116 at home the game before, and I can't give them much credit for their win over the Celtics given the tough spot for Boston.

Home-court advantage hasn't meant much in this series.  The road team has won three of the last four meetings straight up.  And the road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The underdog is also 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. 

Jason Kidd is 11-29 ATS in home games after winning two of their last three games as the coach of Milwaukee.  Boston is 12-2 ATS in road games against Central Division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games off two consecutive wins against division opponents.  Take the Celtics Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Grizzlies UNDER 196.5

This is one of my favorite situations to take an UNDER in the NBA.  This is the classic home-and-home situation.  Memphis played in Dallas last night, and now Dallas has to play in Memphis tonight.  Teams get familiar with one another in these situations, and points are harder to come by in the rematch as a result.

Last night the Grizzlies and Mavs combined for 197 points in a 103-94 Dallas victory.  Now we are getting a total of 196.5, and if my theory is correct, we'll easily cash the UNDER as this game is sure to be more low scoring than the first meeting.  And both teams shot well last night as the Mavs shot 48.6% and made 11 3-pointers, while the Grizzlies shot 45.8% and made 12 3-pointers.  Don't expect either to shoot that well again.

This head-to-head series has been very low scoring recently as it is.  The Mavs and Grizzlies have combined for 197 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings.  And they have averaged just 187.2 combined points per game in those six meetings, which is roughly 9 points less than tonight's posted total of 196.5.  So we are getting that 9 points of value even before you factor in this perfect UNDER situation with the home-and-home.

Memphis is 16-6 to the UNDER in it home games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 22-7-2 in Mavericks last 31 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 21-6-1 in Mavericks last 28 games following a straight up win.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Wizards/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +7

The Los Angeles Lakers didn't take too kindly to Marcin Gortat's tweet that John Wall 'will torture' Lonzo Ball tonight.  Look for them to be playing with a little more spirit than usual tonight when these two meet in L.A. on ESPN.

"Yeah, of course we did," Ingram said when asked if he saw Gortat's tweet on Monday. "Everyone has social media, definitely saw it. The competitor in Lonzo, of course he didn't take it so well and, with his teammates behind him, we didn't take it so well."

I think the Wizards are overvalued here due to their 3-0 start to the season.  But they could easily be 0-3 as their wins over the 76ers (by 5), Pistons (by 4) and Nuggets (by 5) all came by 5 points or less.  And that fact alone shows that we are getting some serious value with the Lakers as 7-point dogs.

Plays against favorites (WASHINGTON) - team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season, after three or more consecutive wins are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Lakers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +7

The Phoenix Suns made the coaching change and send Eric Bledsoe home and promptly won their first game of the season.  It's like clockwork when a team makes a coaching change that they are going to play well in that first game.  And I look for the Suns to continue playing well tonight.

The Suns are undervalued right now due to their slow start to the season.  They are catching a whopping 7 points at home tonight against the Utah Jazz.  You look at the lines for their previous three home games and you can see how we're getting value here.  They were 2.5-point dogs to the Blazers, 3.5-point favorites over the Lakers, and 2-point dogs to the Kings.

Conversely, the Jazz are overvalued due to their 3-1 ATS start this season.  But the Jazz are in a tough spot here as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back after an 84-102 loss in Los Angeles last night.  They used a lot of energy cutting the deficit to single-digits in the fourth quarter last night, but ran out of gas in the final few minutes.  They won't have a whole lot left in the tank here to put away the Suns by more than 7 points.

All three meetings between Utah and Phoenix were decided by 7 points or less last season.  The home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Jazz are 2-8-3 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 0 days rest.  Utah is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks +5

This is the perfect 'buy low sell high' situation in the NBA.  We'll sell high on the Memphis Grizzlies, who are 3-0 on the season, and buy low on the Dallas Mavericks, who are 0-4 on the season and still in search of their first victory.

The Mavericks will be highly motivated for that first win tonight.  Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are in a massive letdown spot off back-to-back upset victories over the Warriors and Rockets.  They won't show up tonight.

"We've got to scratch and claw our way out of this," head coach Rick Carlisle said. "There's no other way. Our disposition has to pick up. We have to be totally together. We're missing a couple guys, but we have enough to win with what we have. Everybody's got to dig deep."

The Mavericks have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Grizzlies.  Plays against favorites (MEMPHIS) - team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season, after three or more consecutive wins are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* Jazz/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 199.5

The Utah Jazz are going to remain a great UNDER bet until oddsmakers catch up with them.  They are 2-0-1 to the UNDER htis season, averaging just 99.7 points per game on offense and giving up 94.3 points per game on defense.

The reasons the Jazz are such a good UNDER bet this year is because they lost their best scorer in Gordon Hayward, and they're still built around defense, but even more so this year.  This is a team that consistently ranks toward the bottom of the league in pace and toward the top of the league in defensive efficiency.

That has been the case again this season.  The Jazz rank dead last in pace at 96.6 possessions per game.  But they are 7th in defensive efficiency, giving up 97.2 points per 100 possessions.

The Clippers are now built to play a similar style to the Jazz, swapping out elite point guard Chris Paul for the defense-first minded Patrick Beverly.  It's no surprise that they are leading the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 94.6 points per 100 possessions despite playing two up-tempo teams in the Suns and Lakers.

And the head-to-head series really favors the UNDER tonight.  The Jazz are clippers have combined for 195 or fewer points in five of their last seven meetings.  And like I said, they were two teams that were much better offensively prior to this season. 

The Clippers are 8-0 UNDER in home games after leading their last two games by 10-plus points at the half over the last three seasons.  Los Angeles is 12-3 to the UNDER when playing on two days' rest over the last two seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -4.5

The Portland Trail Blazers get to play their first home game tonight after an impressive three-game road trip to open the season.  They won 124-76 in Phoenix, 114-96 in Indiana and lost 110-113 at Milwaukee.

They will be playing in front of a raucous home crowd here tonight as they have one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the NBA.  Fans are excited about this team that made a huge run in the second half last year to make the playoffs after trading for Jusuf Nurkic.

The Pelicans have opened 1-2 with a 91-103 loss in Memphis, a 120-128 home loss to Golden State and a 119-112 road win over the Los Angeles Lakers.  This team is so limited in the shooting department as DeMarcus Cousins in their best 3-point shooter.  They are fade material because of their lack of shooting, and the big names on the roster have them consistently overvalued.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Blazers have gone 11-1 SU in their last 12 home meetings with the Pelicans.  And they only have to cover 4.5 points here, which is too low.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

15* Nuggets/Wizards NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver -3

The Denver Nuggets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  Their roster is absolutely loaded and they have one of the deepest benches in the NBA.  And they got better in the offseason by swapping defensive liability Danilo Gallinari out for veteran Paul Millsap and his elite defending and scoring skills.

The Nuggets blew a double-digit lead and lost in Utah in their opener.  But they bounced back with a 96-79 home win over the Kings in their home opener.  And now they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here and will be ready for the Wizards.

The Wizards have been extremely shaky despite playing two home games against two sub-par Eastern Conference teams.  They only won 120-115 over the 76ers as 6.5-point favorites, and also failed to cover as 6.5-point favorites over the Pistons in a 115-111 win.  They have a good starting lineup, but their bench is one of the worst in the NBA, and now they'll be without two key pieces in Markieff Morris and Jason Smith tonight.

The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  Washington is 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Monday games.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Nuggets Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -6.5

The Milwaukee Bucks have played a brutal schedule in the early going and have gotten through it at 2-1.  They won in Boston, lost at home to Cleveland, and beat Portland at home.  Now they finally get a bit of a break here against the Charlotte Hornets.

This is a Hornets team I think will be good when healthy, but that's not the case right now.  They are missing two starters in Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and they are missing two of their first players off the bench in Malik Monk and Cody Zeller.

The Hornets lost 90-102 in their only road game in Detroit.  Then they had to erase a halftime deficit with a huge second half to beat the lowly Atlanta Hawks at home.  The Hawks may be the worst team in the NBA this season. This is a big step up in class for the Hornets tonight.

The Hornets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Charlotte is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. NBA Central division opponents.  The Hornets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.  Take the Bucks Monday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3

I'm taking the Milwaukee Bucks to bounce back from their loss to the Cavaliers last night.  They let that game get away in the second half.  They have played a brutal schedule already, facing two of the best teams in the East.  They beat the Celtics on the road before losing to the Cavs last night.

The Portland Trail Blazers are getting way too much respect from the books after back-to-back blowout road wins over two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Suns and Pacers.  But now they have to take a big step up in competition here and will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days.  The Bucks should be favored by more here.

The Bucks clearly match up well with the Blazers.  They have won four of the last five meetings, including a season sweep last year.  And they've gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Plays on favorites (MILWAUKEE) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite against opponent off two or more consecutive road wins are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Bucks Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +8.5

I think the Memphis Grizzlies are getting overlooked in the Western Conference this season.  This is always a gritty team that will fight for every possession.  And I think getting rid of Zach Randolph and Tony Allen was the right move to go younger and more athletic, which will allow them to play a little more up tempo when they want to.

The Grizzlies opened with a nice 103-91 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans, holding them to 38% shooting to prove that their defense is still elite.  And they've now had two days off to get ready for Golden State, which is a huge advantage.

Meanwhile, Golden State will be playing the second of a back-to-back here after winning 128-120 in New Orleans last night.  So that gives these teams a common opponent already, and the Grizzlies can clearly hang with the Warriors given their results.

Last year, Memphis actually won its first two meetings with Golden State.  The Grizzlies won 110-89 as 13-point home dogs, and 128-119 as 13.5-point road dogs.  The Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Roll with the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves lost their opener 99-107 at San Antonio.  They went cold down the stretch.  Now they head back to Minnesota for their first home game, and it will be a great environment as these fans have something to be excited about for the first time in a long time.

The Timberwolves are a legit contender in the Western Conference now.  They added Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson and pair then with Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns.  You would be hard-pressed to find many better starting lineups than this one.

The Utah Jazz come in overvalued after their 106-96 home win over Denver.  The Jazz erased a double-digit lead and started needed a 28-13 fourth quarter to win that game.  I'm not very high on this Jazz team with a loss of Gordon Hayward.  There just isn't much talent on this team outside of Rudy Gobert.

The Timberwolves are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Roll with the Timberwolves Friday.

15* Cavs/Bucks ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Milwaukee +3

The Milwaukee Bucks have the talent to give the Cleveland Cavaliers a run for their money in the East this season.  Now they want to prove that right away as they get to host the Cavs tonight, and I like the value we are getting with them as home dogs here.

The great thing about this game is that both teams have a common opponent in their opener to compare to.  The Cavs only beat the Celtics 102-99 at home, while the Bucks beat the Celtics 108-100 on the road.  Now they have a shot to get to 2-0 against the two teams that made the Eastern Conference Finals last year.

"I think we're capable of doing big things this year," Giannis Antetokounmpo said. "We've just got to stay focused, stay grounded ... and try to have the same mentality. We're the underdogs. We're not a big-market team, we're not a big team, we're young, so we've just got to play with a chip on our shoulder and hopefully this season we can be one of the best teams in the East."

In four meetings with the Cavs last season, the Bucks were only outscored by a combined 7 points.  They won their first home meeting 118-101 last year and lost the other in overtime.  Cleveland is 13-26 ATS vs. division opponents over the last two seasons.  Take the Bucks Friday.

15* Knicks/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on New York +12.5

The hype on the Oklahoma City Thunder right now has them overvalued coming into the season.  They traded for Paul George and Carmelo Anthony, which gives them a Big 3 with Russell Westbrook.  But it's going to take some time for these guys to gel, and they now have no depth on the bench because of these trades.  Two of the first guys off the bench will be Pattrick Patterson and Raymond Felton, and both are questionable with injuries tonight.

The Knicks come into the season getting no love from the betting public and thus the oddsmakers, which is kind of a perfect storm here.  But they do have some nice depth now with the additions of Enes Kanter and Doug McDermott.  They also have Kyle O'Quinn and Michael Beasley coming off the bench.

Tim Hardaway Jr., Kristaps Porzingis and Courtney Lee are all underrated players in my book.  And rookie PG Frank Ntilikina has some veterans behind him in Ramon Sessions and Jarrett Jack to help him along.  Willy Hernangomez is a worker at center who averaged 8.2 points and 7.0 rebounds last season in only 18.4 minutes per game.  He will get double the minutes and double the production this season.

Each of the last five meetings between the Knicks and Thunder have been decided by 11 points or less.  This 12.5-point spread is clearly inflated tonight given the perception of these teams coming into the season.  Roll with the Knicks Thursday.

15* Blazers/Suns NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +2

The Phoenix Suns enter the 2017 season undervalued as many picked them to finish at or near the bottom of the Western Conference.  And while last year was a growing year for their young team, they plan on having a lot more structure this season and taking major strides.

They even rested their best player Eric Bledsoe for the final 16 games last season to try and preserve his knee.  Now they enter 2017 fully healthy and ready to make some progress.  I love the backcourt of Bledsoe, Devin Booker and Tyler Ulis.  Marquese Chriss and TJ Warren continue to improve, and rookie Josh Jackson will bring some much-needed defense to this lineup.  Tyson Chandler remains an eraser and leader inside.

I think the Blazers come into 2017 a bit overvalued due to the way they finished last season.  One key here is that CJ McCollum is going to miss this game due to a suspension from the preseason.  McCollum averaged 23 points per game last season and is one of the most underrated guards in the NBA.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Denver Nuggets +2.5

The Denver Nuggets are going to be one of my favorite teams to back this season.  They were one of the hottest teams over the second half last season and barely missed the playoffs.  Their roster is loaded, and it got even better in the offseason.

One key addition came in the form of Paul Millsap. The All-Star forward left the Atlanta Hawks to sign with Denver in free agency. Paired alongside center Nikola Jokic, Millsap promises to give the Nuggets some extra juice on both offense and defense in the frontcourt.

Millsap put up a career-best average of 18.1 points and also collected 7.7 rebounds for the Hawks a season ago. He agreed to a three-year, $90 million deal with Denver over the summer, and he gives the Nuggets a veteran leader who should mesh well with a talented, young core.

Millsap's presence will only make Jokic more dangerous and even tougher to defend. Over Denver's final 28 games last season, Jokic averaged 18.7 points, 12 rebounds and 6.1 assists.

The Utah Jazz are a team I'm not very high on this season.  Losing George Hill and Gordon Hayward will be too much for this team to overcome.  Now a starting lineup that features Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors, Rodney Hood, Joe Ingles and Ricky Rubio will not be nearly as dangerous in 2017.  I think Gobert is a great young player, but the rest of the lineup leaves a lot to be desired.

Denver is 44-25 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The Nuggets are 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 games when playing on three or more days' rest.  Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  The Jazz are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Roll with the Nuggets Wednesday.

20* 76ers/Wizards ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Philadelphia +7

The Philadelphia 76ers are a team on the rise this season.  They now have a healthy Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons and one of the most talented rosters in the league.  We will back them every chance we get as long as they're healthy.

The 76ers also boast the No. 1 overall pick in Markelle Fultz.  They made a great move to get J.J. Redick this season for a sniper from 3-point range.  And both forwards Dario Saric and Robert Covington are two of the more underrated players in the league.

Many expect the Wizards to be one of the contenders in the East.  And while their starting lineup is certainly capable of that label, they have one of the worst depth situations in the NBA.  And now Markieff Morris is going to miss time with a groin injury.

Philadelphia is 49-30 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The 76ers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games.  The Wizards are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

20* Rockets/Warriors 2017 NBA Season Opener on Houston +9.5

The San Antonio Spurs mopped the floor with the Golden State Warriors by 40 points in the opener last season.  The Warriors come in overvalued once again this season after winning the title last year.  They are now 9.5-point favorites against the Rockets.

Opening night is certainly a distraction for teams who are coming off a title.  They get their banner hung and receive their rings.  It makes them reflect on last season, and not focus on the present.  Meanwhile, it motivates the opponent.  And that opponent this time around is one that will push the Warriors this season.

Indeed, the Rockets are the second-best team in the NBA this season in my opinion.  They were already the second-best team in the West last year, then they traded for Chris Paul, making an already potent lineup almost unstoppable.  This is the perfect fit for Paul because he doesn't have to have the ball in his hands 100% of the time like he did with the Clippers.  And he's a great spot up shooter. 

Defending BOTH Paul and Harden in the pick and roll will give opposing defenses headaches all season.  And the shooters around these two are tremendous with Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon.  Plus they have both Clint Capela and Nene Hilario to do the dirty work inside.  I really like this team a lot, and I think you'll see why in Game 1 tonight.

Mike D'Antoni is 14-4 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Houston.  The Rockets won 132-127 as 11-point dogs and only lost 98-107 as 8.5-point dogs in their two trips to Golden State last season.  They will have a shot to win this game in the closing seconds as well.  Bet the Rockets Tuesday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 5 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 231

Oddsmakers have over-adjusted here due to three straight overs cashing in the NBA Finals.  We saw a 221-point total for Game 2, and now we're seeing a 231-point total for Game 5.  This 10-point adjustment means that there is clearly value on the UNDER.

And there are more reasons to like the UNDER for Game 5.  As a series goes on, teams become more and more familiar with one another.  And that's the case here.  I think after the Cavs won Game 4 to extend this series, there will be a tightness about this game for both squads.

And I think that favors the UNDER as both teams will be laying it all on the line defensively, while the Warriors will be tight on offense trying to win a championship, and the Cavs as well trying to avoid elimination.  Neither team will be playing and shooting as freely as they have up to this point in the series.

Cleveland is 18-4 to the UNDER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  Golden State is 8-1 to the UNDER after allowing 105 or more points in three straight games this season.  The UNDER is 11-1 in Warriors last 12 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 7-1-2 in the last 10 meetings in Golden State.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Monday.

20* Warriors/Cavs Game 4 No-Brainer on Golden State -6

The Golden State Warriors just took the life out of the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3.  They came back from a 6-point deficit in the final three minutes, outscoring the Warriors 11-0 to close the game and win 118-113.

The Cavs thought they had the game won and couldn't close, and now their state of mind is that they're beaten.  I expect the Cavs to come out and try in the first half, but once the Warriors get ahead, I think they will quit fighting and just except their fate.

Conversely, the Warriors will be more motivated than ever to win this game.  They can be the first team in NBA history to go 16-0 in the playoffs.  And what sweet revenge that would be to sweep the Cavs a year after blowing a 3-1 deficit to them.  Simply put, the Warriors are going to want this game more.

Cleveland is 1-10 ATS off a home loss this season.  Golden State is 7-0 ATS in all playoff road games this season.  The Warriors are 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall.  The Cavs are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the Warriors in Game 4 Friday.

20* Warriors/Cavs Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 227

The last game between the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers was an aberration.  Cleveland tried to push the tempo, and it didn't work.  As a result, they lost 113-132 to the Warriors for 245 combined points.  Look for the Cavs to slow it down at home n Game 3, which is their best shot to beat the Warriors.

Before last game, the UNDER was 7-2-1 in the previous 10 meetings.  The Cavs and Warriors had combined for 217 or fewer points in all 10 of those games.  They had averaged 204.0 combined points per game in those 10 meetings, which is 23 points less than tonight's posted total of 227.

The Warriors have been much less efficient in the fast break on the road this season.  They are scoring 7 fewer fast break points per game on the road this season than they are at home.  They won't get nearly as many easy looks in Cleveland as they have in these first two games.

Golden State's defense continues to be superb.  It has held the Cavs to just 97.4 points per 100 possessions through two games.  The Cavs came into the NBA Finals averaging 120 points per 100 possessions thus far in the playoffs.  The Warriors have allowed just 98.8 points per 100 possessions through the playoffs to this point.

Cleveland is 18-3 to the UNDER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 19-7 in Warriors last 26 vs. Eastern Conference.  The UNDER would be 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in this series with a total set of 218 or higher, and this total is 227.  Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Wednesday.

25* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavs/Warriors UNDER 221

Oddsmakers continue to set the totals too high when the Warriors and Cavs get together.  They adjusted down to 221 for Game 2, but it's simply not low enough.  These teams know each other all too well after playing in three straight NBA Finals, and that familiarity makes points harder to come by.

The UNDER is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings in this series dating back to Game 1 of the NBA Finals last season.  The Cavs and Warriors have combined for 217 or fewer points in all 10 of those games, which is a perfect 10-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 221.  They have averaged just 204.0 combined points per game in those 10 meetings, which is 17 points less than this total.

The Warriors are 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season.  They held the Cavs to just 34.9% shooting in Game 1 and won't let off the gas here in Game 2.  The Cavs have stepped up their defense in the playoffs and actually played well on that end in Game 1, limiting the Warriors to 42.5% shooting.

Cleveland is 9-1 to the UNDER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Cavs are 10-1 to the UNDER vs. a team with a winning percentage above 70% over the last two seasons.  Cleveland is 8-0 to the UNDER in road games vs. good shooting teams who make 48% of their shots or better over the last three years.  The UNDER is 9-1-2 in the last 12 meetings at Golden State.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Sunday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 1 No-Brainer on Golden State -7

The Golden State Warriors have waited basically a full calendar year for their shot at revenge on the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They blew a 3-1 series lead in the NBA Finals and lost a tight Game 7 at the wire.  They will get their revenge in this series, starting with Game 1 Thursday night.

The Warriors have upgraded their team since last season, adding a Top 5 player in Kevin Durant, making them virtually unstoppable.  They now have four All-Stars against Cleveland's three in James, Love and Irving.  And the Warriors still have good depth with Andre Iguodala, Ian Clark, JaVale McGee, Zaza Pachulia, Shaun Livingtston, David West and Patrick McCaw all playing significant minutes.

The difference in this series is defense.  The Warriors ranked 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season, while the Cavs ranked 22nd.  And the Warriors have 'Lebron stoppers' in Green and Iguodala, plus Thompson and Durant can hold their own against James when asked to.  No team is better equipped to stop Lebron than Golden State is.

Golden State is now 27-1 SU in its last 28 games, and 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games overall.  The Warriors have won nine straight games by double-digits in these players.  The Cavs come from the weak East, and even benefited from injuries the past two series to the opposing team's best players in Kyle Lowry and Isaiah Thomas.  They will get exposed in Game 1 tonight.  Bet the Warriors Thursday.

20* Cavs/Celtics Game 5 No-Brainer on Boston +10.5

The Boston Celtics have voiced their frustration through the media about how disappointed they were in letting down their home fans in the first two games of this series.  They want to make amends and give a big effort tonight in Game 5 and go out swinging.

And the Celtics have given the Cavs trouble the past two games without Isaiah Thomas.  They have opened up their offense with a lot more passing, and it has worked.  They won Game 3 and actually held a double-digit lead at halftime of Game 4 before the Cavs pulled away in the second half for a 112-99 victory.  They only lost by 13 on the road despite the Cavs shooting 59.5% from the field for the game.

Boston is 10-1 ATS after having lost three of its last four games this season.  Plays on home underdogs of 10 or more points (BOSTON) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 46-17 (73%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Celtics in Game 5 Thursday.

20* Celtics/Cavs Game 4 No-Brainer on Boston +15.5

The oddsmakers made a huge adjustment after the Celtics lost the first two games of this series by double-digits.  They were 17-point dogs in Game 3 and won outright.  Now they're still 15-point dogs in Game 4, and it's still too big of an adjustment.  The Celtics will stay within the number and give the Cavs another run for their money tonight.

The Cavaliers even shot 14-of-22 from 3-point range in the first half and STILL didn't beat the Celtics.  It's unlikely that they shoot as well as they did again in Game 4, which bodes well for the Celtics covering this 15-point spread.

And the Celtics actually moved the ball perhaps better than any game they had all season, which got everyone involved without Isaiah Thomas.  They had six players score at least 10 points, and sharing the basketball will be the focal point heading into Game 4 as well.

Cleveland is 1-9 ATS off a home loss this season.  Boston is 10-2 ATS in road games against Central division opponents this season.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Cleveland.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

25* NBA Conference Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Warriors/Spurs UNDER 218

The over is 3-0 in the first three games of this series between the Warriors and Spurs.  As a result, oddsmakers have been forced to set their highest total of the series in Game 4.  This total has been set at 218 after totals of 211.5, 209.5 and 215 in the first three games of the series.  There is clearly value on the UNDER in Game 4.

The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in San Antonio.  The Spurs and Warriors have combined for 208 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 meetings in San Antonio.  They have averaged just 191.3 combined points per game in those 10 meetings, which is roughly 27 points less than tonight's posted total of 218.  Enough said.  Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Monday.

20* Celtics/Cavs Game 3 No-Brainer on Boston +17

The oddsmakers have been forced to set a ridiculous number in Game 3 because they know the betting public will want to continue backing the Cavs at any price.  After all, the Cavs are 10-0 in the playoffs and have gone 6-0-2 ATS in their last eight games overall, so the public isn't going to stop backing them.

But this is simply too big of an adjustment.  The Cavaliers aren't 17 points better than the Celtics at home, even with Isaiah Thomas out for the rest of the playoffs.  These players had Thomas' back when he lost his sister, and now they'll rally for him and give a big effort in Game 3.

The Celtics were embarrassed by 44 points in Game 2.  This is a prideful team that won't want to go out like that.  They aren't going to quit, and in fact I think it will be the Cavaliers that relax a bit in Game 3.  They know they don't have to deal with Thomas so they won't be as focused, especially off their 44-point victory.

Boston is 9-1 ATS after having lost three of its last four games this season.  The Celtics are 14-4 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games over the last three seasons.  The road team is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game Sunday.

20* Spurs/Warriors Game 3 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 214

The first two games in this series have gone over the total with ease.  Now the betting public is all over the over in Game 3, but I see it playing out much differently.  With their season basically on the line tonight, the Spurs will fight, and that will come out more on the defensive end than anything.

And the Spurs are going to be without leading scorer Kawhi Leonard again for Game 3.  They only managed 100 points on 37% shooting without him in Game 2.  The Warriors couldn't miss, shooting 56.2% for the game with 18 made 3-pointers. That is unlikely to happen again as well.

The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in San Antonio.  In fact, the Spurs and Warriors have combined for 208 or fewer points in each of their last nine meetings in San Antonio.  They have averaged just 187.2 combined points per game in those nine games, which is roughly 27 points less than tonight's posted total of 214.  Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

25* NBA Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics +6.5

This is the series for the Boston Celtics.  They can't lose both home games to open the series if they want any chance of giving the Cleveland Cavaliers a run for their money.  I expect a big effort from the Celtics here with their back against the wall after losing Game 1.

The Celtics came out sluggish in Game 1 and fell behind by double-digits right away and could never recover.  I guess you could see that coming after just winning a Game 7 against the Wizards a couple days earlier.  They were probably still fatigued too.

But they weren't aggressive at all, time and time against settling for 3-pointers instead of attacking the basket.  They went 12-of-38 (31.6%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  Look for Isaiah Thomas and company to be in attack mode from the opening tip.

Boston is 15-3 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games over the past two seasons.  The Celtics are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall, including 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  The Cavs are 4-14 ATS in road games after covering the spread in three or more consecutive games over the last three seasons.  Bet the Celtics in Game 2 Friday.

20* Cavs/Celtics Game 1 No-Brainer on Boston +5

I think the long layoff for the Cavs is more of a disadvantage than an advantage.  They haven't played since May 7th and will be rusty.  We saw the Warriors get blitzed by the Spurs in the first half of Game 1 after their long layoff.  I think the same thing happens here.

The Boston Celtics are far from tired despite playing a 7-game series.  Rest isn't an issue in the playoffs.  And the Celtics have only played four games in the past 10 days, which would be a great situation to back a team during the regular season.

One thing that really stands out to me and points out the line value in Game 1 is the regular season lines between these teams.  Boston was a 4-point favorite and a 1.5-point favorite in its two home meetings with Cleveland.  Now it is a +5 underdog in Game 1, which is a 9-point difference from their final regular season meeting of 2017 on April 5th.

Cleveland is 3-14 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games over the last three seasons.  Boston is 32-17 ATS when revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Celtics are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall, including 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet the Celtics in Game 1 Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Warriors Game 2 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 210

The Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs are here because of defense.  In fact, these are the two best teams in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency during the regular season.  The Spurs rank 1st at 100.9 points per 100 possessions allowed, while the Warriors are 2nd at 101.1.

The Warriors got way behind early against the Spurs in Game 1 and were playing at a frantic pace to try to get back in it the rest of the way.  That led to a high-scoring 113-111 final in the Warriors' favor.  I think Game 2 will be played much differently with the Warriors getting off to a much better start.

The Spurs and Warriors have combined for 210 or fewer points in seven of their last 10 meetings.  They have averaged just 202.8 combined points per game in those 10 meetings, showing that there's still a ton of value on the UNDER 210 here.  And leading scorer Kawhi Leonard is out now for the Spurs after getting injured in Game 1.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 205 points or more are 53-16 (76.8%) over the last five seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on any team (SAN ANTONIO) - after one or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season are 24-6 (80%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Wizards/Celtics Game 7 No-Brainer on Boston -4.5

The Boston Celtics let one get away in Game 6, but credit to John Wall for hitting a clutch 3-pointer right before the buzzer.  And it kept the trend of the home team winning every game in this series this season alive.

In fact, the home team is now 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in the 10 meetings between the Wizards and Celtics this season.  The home team has won nine of those 10 meetings by 8 points or more as they have basically all been blowouts outside of Game 6.

The Celtics' home domination of the Wizards has been mighty impressive.  They are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight home meetings with the Wizards, winning all eight by 8 points or more.  Boston has outscored Washington by a total of 136 points in those eight games, or by an average of 17.0 points per game.

Boston is 8-1 ATS after having lost three of its last four games over the past two seasons.  The Wizards are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Boston is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  Bet the Celtics in Game 7 Monday.

20* Spurs/Warriors Game 1 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 212

The Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs are here because of defense.  In fact, these are the two best teams in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency during the regular season.  The Spurs rank 1st at 100.9 points per 100 possessions allowed, while the Warriors are 2nd at 101.1.

I think the Spurs could be fatigued here after a hard-fought seres with the Rockets, plus with the fact that they are without Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard is very banged up and didn't play in Game 6.  And the Warriors will be rusty having last played on May 8th, both factors that should help contribute to the UNDER cashing.

The UNDER is 6-3 in the last nine meetings in this series.  The Spurs and Warriors have combined for 210 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings.  They have averaged just 200.4 combined points per game in those nine meetings, which is roughly 12 points less than Game 1's posted total of 212, providing plenty of value with the UNDER.

The UNDER is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.  The UNDER is 33-16-2 in Warriors last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Plays on the UNDER on any team (GOLDEN STATE) - after one or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season are 24-5 (82.8%) over the last five seasons.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after scoring 105 points or more are 45-13 (77.6%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in Game 1 Sunday.

20* Celtics/Wizards Game 6 No-Brainer on Boston +5

I know the home team has absolutely dominated this series this season, going 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in nine meetings.  However, I'm going against the grain here as I firmly believe the Boston Celtics close out the Wizards tonight, and we'll take the 5 points for some added insurance.

The Celtics made a big statement in Game 5 with their 123-101 victory.  The Wizards have to be a bit deflated after that defeat, and now all the pressure is on them to try and keep their season alive.  These players haven't been in this situation very often and I question how well they'll handle it.  The Celtics' players will be playing loose and free.

Boston is 15-6 ATS in road games after a game where it covered the spread this season.  The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Wizards are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games when playing on one days' rest.  Boston is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 6 Friday.

20* Spurs/Rockets Game 6 No-Brainer on Houston -6.5

The Houston Rockets are the better team in this series.  They have outscored the Spurs despite being down 3-2 in this series.  They won their two games by 27 and 21 points.  I think we see a similar blowout tonight with their backs against the wall at home in Game 6.

The Spurs lost Tony Parker for the rest of the postseason a few games back, and now their best player in Kawhi Leonard is nursing knee and ankle injuries.  He got hurt in Game 5 and didn't return for the final five minutes of regulation or overtime.  The Spurs were fortunate to pull it out, but they have no chance of being competitive in Game 6 without him at near 100%.

The Spurs are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games following a straight up win.  The Rockets are 19-10 ATS following a loss this season.  Bet the Rockets in Game 6 Thursday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics -4.5

The Boston Celtics probably relaxed a bit too much following their 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS run in these playoffs that extended back to Game 3 of the Bulls' series.  They were blown out in their two games at Washington in Games 3 and 4.

But now they return home focused and determined to take back control of this series.  And I think we are getting the Celtics at a cheaper price than we should be here simply because they were blown out in both games in Washington.

Home-court advantage has been bigger in this series than any other in the playoffs.  In fact, the home team is a perfect 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Celtics are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven home meetings with the Wizards, winning all seven by 8 points or more and by an average of 14.3 points per game.

Boston is 10-1 ATS in home games after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games over the past three seasons.  It is winning by 14.8 points per game in this spot.  The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Celtics in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Rockets/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on Houston +5.5

I still think the Houston Rockets are the better team in this series, so I'm likely to back them the rest of the way, just as I did in Game 4.  And the numbers have shown that they've been the better team.

The Rockets can score at will.  They have put up 125 and 126 points in their two victories in this series, and the Spurs are a great defensive team.  They have outscored the Spurs by 12 points in four games thus far.

The main theme for me is that the Spurs are too much of a one-man show with Kawhi Leonard, while the Rockets have a number of different players that can beat you outside of James Harden.  The Rockets simply have too many weapons for the Spurs.

Houston is 13-4 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The Spurs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Rockets in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Jazz Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Utah +9

The Utah Jazz aren't the type of team that is just going to pack it in when trailing 0-3 in the series.  They are a prideful team that wants to put an end to a 9-game losing streak in the 2nd round of the playoffs.  And even if they don't win tonight, they can still easily cover as 9-point dogs.

The Jazz have at least been competitive in all three games, losing by 12, 11 and 11 points.  And they held a lead late against the Warriors before falling apart in the final few minutes to lose by 11 in Game 3.  Plus Steph Curry and Kevin Durant couldn't miss with Durant even banking in a 3-pointer at the end of the shot clock late.

Utah is 39-16 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last three seasons.  Plays against favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (75% record or better) playing a team with a winning record are 73-38 (65.8%) ATS since 1996.  Utah is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Jazz in Game 4 Monday.

20* Spurs/Rockets Game 4 No-Brainer on Houston -5.5

The Houston Rockets have lost the last two games of this series after winning Game 1 by 27 points.  It appears they have relaxed these last two games, but now they'll be going full throttle at home tonight to try and even this series at 2-2.

Houston scored 126 points in Game 1.  But it has let San Antonio dictate the tempo these past two games, being held to just 96 and 92 points, respectively.  Look for the Rockets to get back to pushing the tempo.  They're not going to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 3 either when they shot 36.4%.

Houston is 8-1 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a home favorite this season.  The Spurs are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up win.  Bets on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - double revenge - two straight losses vs. opponent against opponent off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog are 50-20 (71.4%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Rockets in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Warriors/Jazz Game 3 No-Brainer on Utah +6.5

The Utah Jazz have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are 30-14 at home this season.  They were at least competitive in their two games at Golden State, covering the spread in both games.  Now they are catching 6.5 points at home in Game 3 with the series basically on the line.  I look for a big effort from them here.

The Jazz have played the Warriors tough at home over the past few years.  They have gone 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings in Salt Lake City, not once losing by more than 7 points.  And the only non-cover came in overtime in a 96-103 loss as 4.5-point dogs last season.

Plays against favorites (Golden State) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (winning at least 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%) are 44-16 (73.3%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on home underdogs (UTAH) - revenging two straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off two no-covers where the team won straight up as a favorite are 37-13 (74%) ATS since 1996.

The Jazz are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on one days' rest.  Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  Utah is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Jazz in Game 3 Saturday.