20* Seton Hall/Iowa State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Iowa State -2.5 

I love the spot for the Iowa State Cyclones tonight.  They are out for revenge from a 76-84 loss to Seton Hall in the Bahamas.  Now they get the Pirates at home this time around inside Hilton Coliseum, which is one of the toughest places to play in the entire country. 

The Cyclones are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 25.0 points per game.  Their only non-cover was by 0.5 points.  It will be just the second true road game of the season for the Pirates tonight. 

Iowa State is 28-4 ATS in its last 32 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  Roll with Iowa State Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +14.5 

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to a 6-2 start with their only losses coming by 6 to St. Bonaventure on a neutral and by 11 at Pittsburgh.  They can stay within 14.5 points of the Michigan State Spartans tonight. 

The Spartans are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are 5-3 SU & 2-6 ATS and came into the season as the No. 1 ranked team.  They are far from it.  They were upset by Kentucky, Virginia Tech and Duke and failed to put away teams like Seton Hall, Georgia and UCLA.  They only have two wins all season by more than 13 points. 

Making matters worse for the Spartans are the injuries.  They are without both Joshua Langford and Rocket Watts, who were expected to be two of their best players coming into the season.  Joey Hauser being ruled ineligible also hurt them. 

The Scarlet Knights are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.  The Spartans are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Rutgers has lost by 11 points or fewer in each of their last four meetings with the Spartans while going 3-1 ATS.  Bet Rutgers Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -7 

The Miami Heat have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 16-6 SU & 14-7-1 ATS in all games this year.  They have been unstoppable at home, going 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS while winning by 17.1 points per game on average. 

The Chicago Bulls have been overrated all season.  They are 8-15 SU & 10-13 ATS in their 23 games this year.  The Bulls are coming off an ugly upset home loss to the Warriors and should be double-digit road dogs here to the Miami Heat. 

Chicago is 15-30 ATS in road games with a total of 210 to 219.5 over the last three seasons.  The Bulls spent last night in South Beach, so you can only imagine what they got into.  The Heat improve to 10-0 at home this season with another blowout win over the Bulls.  Roll with the Heat Sunday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Hornets -2.5 

The Charlotte Hornets need to be favored by more than 2.5 points at home against the Atlanta Hawks tonight.  We’ll take advantage and side with the Hornets, who have been undervalued basically all season and consistently lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. 

The Hawks are 1-11 SU In their last 12 games overall with their only win coming at home against the lowly Golden State Warriors.  The Hawks are missing some key players right now as John Collins remains suspended and De’Andre Hunter is out.  Meanwhile, the Hornets are fully healthy. 

The Hawks are 0-8 ATS after having lost two of their last three games this season.  Atlanta is 2-10 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 110 or more points per game this season.  Take the Hornets Sunday. 

15* Grizzlies/Jazz NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 219 

I really like this UNDER tonight between the Grizzlies and Jazz.  These teams are very familiar with one another as this will be their 3rd meeting in three weeks.  And familiarity almost always favors the defenses because they know what to expect from the offenses. 

Not to mention, the first two meetings in this series went UNDER the total with combined scores of 213 points on November 15th and 197 points on November 29th.  Now, oddsmakers have somehow set this total way higher than it should be at 219 points in the 3rd meeting. 

This has always been a low-scoring series.  In fact, the Jazz and Grizzlies haven’t combined for more than 218 points in any of their last 44 meetings.  That makes for a perfect 44-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 219-point total.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* Marquette/Kansas State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State PK 

For starters, Marquette player of the year candidate Markus Howard (26.0 PPG) is questionable to play tonight.  He sat out their last game with a concussion and is questionable to play again today.  The good news is I like Kansas State regardless of whether or not he plays, it would just be a bonus if he doesn’t. 

Marquette has been solid on a neutral and at home with the exception of a 21-point loss to Maryland.  But in their lone true road game, the Golden Eagles were blasted by a mediocre 4-4 Wisconsin team 61-77 as 2-point dogs.  And they will get blasted by Kansas State today as well. 

The Wildcats have only lost on a neutral this season.  They are 4-0 at home and winning by 15.3 points per game.  They are once again a dominant defensive team this year, holding opponents to 58.4 points per game overall and 54.2 points per game at home. 

Marquette is 1-8 ATS in road games off a win by 15 points or more over the last three seasons.  It is losing by 12.1 points per game on average in this spot.  The Golden Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Kansas State Saturday. 

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Temple -3 

The Temple Owls are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  It’s almost criminal that they aren’t ranked yet.  They are 6-1 this season with their only loss coming on a neutral to Maryland by 7 as 9-point dogs.  That’s a Maryland team that is ranked No. 3 in the country. 

Temple also has some impressive wins.  They went on the road and beat USC 70-61 as 9-point dogs.  They went on the road and beat Texas A&M 65-42 as 5-point favorites.  And they crushed Davidson 66-53 on a neutral as only 2-point favorites.  They should be more than 3-point favorites here Saturday against Missouri. 

The Tigers are just 4-4 this season and come in off a string of very disappointing showings.  They lost 52-63 to Butler on a neutral as 2-point favorites.  They were also upset as 1.5-point favorites against Oklahoma 66-77 on a neutral.  And they were just upset at home by Charleston Southern 60-68 as 23.5-point favorites.  This team is clearly overrated. 

Temple is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the last three seasons.  They are winning by 11.0 points per game on average in this spot.  The Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet Temple Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois +11 

The Illinois Fighting Illini are one of the most improved teams in the country this year.  It’s Year 3 under Brad Underwood, and this is where good head coaches make their mark.  Underwood is certainly impressing thus far in Year 3. 

The Fighting Illini returned four starters from last year and added in a great recruiting class.  They are off to a 6-2 start this season with their only two losses coming on the road to Arizona and at home to Miami.  They’ll be highly motivated for their Big Ten opener against No. 3 Maryland tonight. 

The Terrapins are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers here as double-digit favorites over this solid Illinois squad.  They have narrow wins over Temple and Harvard by 7 points apiece, and I think they are in for a fight tonight.  Especially since Maryland only has two days to get ready for Illinois after playing Notre Dame on Wednesday, while Illinois has four days to get ready while being off since Monday. 

Illinois pulled the 78-67 upset over Maryland as 8.5-point dogs last year.  Maryland hasn’t beaten Illinois by more than 6 since 2016.  The Terrapins are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games off a win by more than 20 points. Take Illinois Saturday. 

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +9.5 

I really like the spot for the New Orleans Pelicans today.  They will be playing with double-revenge after losing the first two meetings with the Mavericks this season.  They’ll be motivated for a win, while the Mavericks will take them lightly and that will make it difficult for them to win by double-digits, which is what it would take to beat us. 

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Pelicans, who have lost seven straight coming in while going 1-5-1 ATS in the process.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Mavericks, who are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. This line is inflated due to these recent results from both teams. 

Plays against any team (Dallas) - off two consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

The Pelicans are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games off a home loss.  The Mavericks are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Dallas is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games playing on two days’ rest.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday. 

20* Nuggets/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Boston -3.5 

The Boston Celtics want revenge from a 92-96 road loss at Denver on November 22nd exactly two weeks ago.  Now they get to face the Nuggets at home this time around.  And it’s a Nuggets team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a road win over the Knicks last night. 

The Celtics will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here and are coming off a 112-93 home win over the Heat.  The Celtics improved to 8-0 SU & 5-3 ATS at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 8.4 points per game.  This is a short number to be laying with the Celtics at home tonight given the rest advantage and revenge. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Denver) - off a road win when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 62-30 (67.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Denver is 6-20 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Celtics Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +4 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are highly motivated for a win after dropping four straight coming in.  One of those losses was a 104-116 home loss to the Magic on November 27th, so they will be out for revenge just over a week later here in the rematch. 

The Cavaliers are rested and ready to go tonight.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  Meanwhile, the Magic will be playing 3rd game in 4 days and are overvalued off two straight wins over Washington and Phoenix. 

Plays against road favorites (Orlando) - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, in December games are 55-26 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Cleveland) off four or more consecutive losses, in December games are 43-18 (70.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.  Cleveland is 18-8-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  The Cavaliers are 54-29 ATS in their last 73 games when playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  Cleveland is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on two days’ rest.  Take the Cavaliers Friday. 

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets +3 

The Charlotte Hornets have certainly been more competitive than most prognosticators anticipated coming into the season.  They are 9-14 SU & 12-11 ATS in their 23 games this season.  They have won three of their last five coming in with their only losses coming on the road to Milwaukee and at home to Phoenix by 5 after the Suns closed on a 10-0 run. 

The Brooklyn Nets are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here as road favorites.  They are getting that respect due to going 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  But their six wins have come against the Hornets, Kings, Knicks, Cavs, Celtics and Hawks. 

The Nets beat the Hornets 101-91 at home on November 20th.  Now the Hornets want revenge at home this time around just over two weeks later.  The Hornets are 6-2 SU in their last eight home meetings with the Nets with one of those losses coming by 2 points. 

Brooklyn is 15-30 ATS in its last 45 road games off three or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Nets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games off a win by more than 10 points.  The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Charlotte is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a home dog of 0.5 to 4.5 points.  Roll with the Hornets Friday. 

20* Providence/Rhode Island ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Rhode Island +2 

Rhode Island returned all five starters this season and will be one of the most improved teams in the country.  The Rams have played a brutal schedule and have managed to go 5-3 this season.  Their only losses all came on the road against Maryland, West Virginia and LSU.  They also beat Alabama outright by 14 as home underdogs and topped a good North Texas team by 13 as 6-point favorites on a neutral. 

Providence is 5-4 SU & 2-6 ATS this season.  The Friars have been a huge disappointment against a much easier schedule than Rhode Island has faced.  They lost by 9 at Northwestern as 9-point favorites.  They lost at home to Pennsylvania outright as 15-point favorites.  And they also lost on a neutral to Long Beach State as 16-point favorites, lost to College of Charleston on a neutral as 9-point favorites, and barely beat Pepperdine by 3 on a neutral as 7-point favorites. 

Providence is 14-27 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Friars are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Rhode Island Friday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -7.5 

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are loaded this season and a legit NCAA Tournament team.  They are off to a 6-1 start this season with their only loss coming to Villanova.  They are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall coming in, so they have been flying under the radar. 

Louisiana Tech has already been tested on the road against teams that are a similar caliber to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs lost by 10 at Creighton and by 13 at Indiana.  I expect them to lose by double-digits tonight as well. 

The Bulldogs have been off since November 24th, so they’ll be ready to go tonight and completely focused.  Mississippi State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record. 

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Mississippi State) - in a game involving two good teams outscoring opponents by 8-plus points per game, after leading int heir previous game by 15 or more points at halftime are 73-32 (69.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Mississippi State Thursday. 

15* Rockets/Raptors NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -1 

The Toronto Raptors are coming off their first home loss of the season.  The Miami Heat beat them in overtime.  The Raptors are now 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per game.  Look for them to bounce back at home tonight against the Houston Rockets. 

The Rockets are in a tough spot off a double-overtime loss at San Antonio Tuesday.  Now they have to travel to Toronto and face a motivated Raptors team here tonight.  It’s a Raptors team that has been underrated all season at 15-5 SU & 13-7 ATS. 

Plays against underdogs (Houston) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Houston is 3-12 ATS off a combined score of 245 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5 points.  Toronto is 25-5 ATS in its last 30 games playing on one days’ rest.  The Raptors are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home meetings with the Rockets.  Take the Raptors Thursday. 

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz -2.5 

This is the worst spot the Lakers have been in this entire season.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days.  After playing in altitude last night in Denver, they now have to play in altitude again tonight in Utah.  The Lakers won’t have much left in the tank. 

The Utah Jazz come in highly motivated for a win after losing four of five on their five-game road trip.  Now they’re back home where they are 8-1 on the season with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They will take advantage of this tired Lakers team tonight and get a win and cover. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Jazz are 8-0 SU in their last eight home meetings with the Lakers.  Take the Jazz Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New Mexico -3 

The New Mexico Lobos have NBA talent this season and should challenge for a Mountain West title.  They are off to a 7-2 start this season with their only two losses coming on the road to UTEP and on a neutral to Auburn.  They also have a road win at New Mexico State and an upset win over Wisconsin on a neutral as 6.5-point dogs.  They have been battle-tested. 

Boise State has been far from impressive this season at 4-2.  Their only good win came at home against BYU.  They lost at Oregon by 31 as 10.5-point dogs.  They were upset at home by UC-Irvine by 9 as 4.5-point favorites.  And now they won’t be competitive with New Mexico, either. 

The Lobos have one of the best home-court advantages in the country year in and year out in The Pit.  The Lobos are 5-0 at home this season and winning by 16.4 points per game.  The Broncos are 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet New Mexico Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on DePaul +2 

The DePaul Blue Demons are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are off to an 8-0 start this season with three impressive road wins over Iowa, Boston College and Minnesota all as underdogs.  And now they are getting zero respect as home dogs to Texas Tech. 

The Red Raiders were exposed in Las Vegas when they lost to Iowa 61-72 as 7-point favorites and were upset by Creighton as well 76-83 as 6-point favorites.  Leading scorer Jahmi’us Ramsey (17.3 PPG) missed the Creighton game and is questionable to play tonight as well. 

Texas Tech is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 vs. Big East opponents.  The Red Raiders are 1-8 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Blue Demons are 5-0 at home this season and winning by 18.4 points per game.  Take DePaul Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tulane -1.5 

Ron Hunter did big things at IUPUI and Georgia State before coming to Tulane.  Now he is already turning around this Tulane program in his first season.  The Green Wave are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS this season and should be laying more than 1.5 points on the road over Southern Miss tonight. 

Tulane’s only loss this season came to Mississippi State as 10-point underdogs.  The Green Wave upset Utah as 8-point dogs on a neutral and their other five wins have all come by 9 points or more.  There is nothing fluky about their 6-1 start. 

Now Tulane takes on a rebuilding Southern Miss team that is 2-6 SU & 2-3-1 ATS this season.  The Golden Eagles’ only two wins have come at home against Delta State and William Carey.  Four of their six losses have come by 15 points or more with the only exceptions being their losses to South Alabama and North Florida. 

Southern Miss is 0-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Green Wave are 5-0 ATS int heir last five road games.  Tulane is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  Roll with Tulane Wednesday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bucks/Pistons UNDER 226 

The Milwaukee Bucks and Detroit Pistons just played less than two weeks ago.  The Bucks won 104-90 at home as 13-point favorites.  That game saw just 194 combined points, and now oddsmakers are setting the total at 226 in the rematch.  This total is way too high to say the least. 

The Pistons won’t have much left in the tank playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They were also playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days the last time they faced the Bucks and managed just 90 points on 40.7% shooting. 

The Pistons have been dynamite defensively over their last games in allowing just 98.4 points per game on 42.8% shooting.  The Bucks have held four of their last six opponents to 102 points or fewer and remain a very good defensive team. 

Detroit is 15-3 UNDER when playing its 3rd game in 4 days over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 35-16-1 in Pistons last 52 games playing on zero days’ rest.  Plays on the UNDER on any team (Detroit) - off a blowout win by 30 or more against an opponent that led its last game by 15 or more at the half are 53-13 (80.3%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

20* Lakers/Nuggets NBA No-Brainer on Denver -2 

The Denver Nuggets had won 10 of 11 before suffering an upset loss at Sacramento on Saturday.  I believe they were overlooking the Kings and looking ahead to this huge showdown with the Lakers, which is understandable.  Now they’ve had two days off to get over that loss and get ready for the Lakers. 

The Lakers are coming off a 100-114 home loss to the Mavericks to end their 10-game winning streak.  I like fading teams the game after their long winning streak comes to an end because there just always seems to be a hangover effect.  And this is a tired Lakers team playing their 7th game in 12 days and have to travel to Utah tomorrow night. 

Home-court advantage has been huge int his series as the home team is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Nuggets are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Lakers winning all five games by 9 points or more and by an average of 18.8 points per game.  Bet the Nuggets Tuesday. 

20* FSU/Indiana ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Indiana -1 

Archie Miller finally has his best team at Indiana since he took over.  The Hoosiers are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS this season with all seven wins coming by 11 points or more and by an average of 22.8 points per game.  They are scoring 86.4 points per game on 51.4% shooting this season. 

The Hoosiers are also greatly improved defensively.  They are giving up 63.6 points per game on 38.3% shooting.  They are holding opponents to 11.2 points per game below their season averages.  They are also scoring 13.5 points per game more than their opponents average allowing on the season. 

I think this is a bad spot for Florida State.  They are coming off two straight nailbiting wins over Tennessee and Purdue on a neutral court by 3 points each.  Those two teams are both way down from where they were last year.  Now the Seminoles will be playing their 3rd game in 5 days, while the Hoosiers will only be playing their 2nd game in 8 days. 

Indiana is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 55 points or less over the last three seasons.  Florida State is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games off two straight wins by 6 points or less.  The Seminoles are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. Big Ten opponents.  Roll with Indiana Tuesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -2 

Despite being just 6-12 SU this season, the Washington Wizards are 11-7 ATS and have been an undervalued commodity this season.  And it’s worth noting they have played a road-heavy schedule with 11 road games compared to seven home games.   

The Wizards are back home here off a brutal four-game road trip at Denver, Phoenix, LA Lakers and LA Clippers.  It’s safe to say they are battle-tested.  And now I expect them to handle their business at home against the Orlando Magic tonight.  They want revenge from a 121-125 loss at Orlando two weeks ago in their first meeting this season. 

The Magic have lost four of their last six with their only wins coming against Cleveland and Golden State.  Orlando is dealing with some injuries right now with Nikola Vucevic, Al-Farouq Aminu and Michael Carter-Williams all out tonight. 

The home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings.  The Wizards have won five straight home meetings with the Magic.  Washington is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with the Magic.  Orlando is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a win.  The Wizards are 21-10 ATS in home games when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  Take the Wizards Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Ole Miss -1 

The Butler Bulldogs will be playing their first true road game of the season tonight.  They are 7-0 and ranked 24th in the country, but their unbeaten season comes to an end at Ole Miss here.  The unranked Rebels are favored and for good reason. 

Ole Miss has a one-point loss at Memphis and an upset win over Penn State on a neutral.  The Rebels will be highly motivated for a win following a blowout loss to a very good Oklahoma State team.  This is a Rebels team that won 20 games last year that earned Kermit Davis SEC Coach of the Year honors.  A lot of talent returned from that team. 

Breiin Tyree (15.1 PPG) is an SEC Player of the Year candidate and returning starter.  Blake Hinson (12.3 PPG) is also a returning starter who missed the first four games of the season.  Now that he’s back, the Rebels should take off.  KJ Buffen (12.4 PPG) is shooting 54% from the floor and 50% from 3-point range.  This is a great 3-point shooting team with four of the top five scorers all shooting at least 37.5% from distance.  Tyree won’t continue to shoot as poorly from 3 as he has thus far. 

The Rebels are 28-13 ATS in their last 41 games overall.  Ole Miss is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games off a loss by 20 points or more.  Butler is 6-15 ATS in true road games over the last three seasons.  Bet Ole Miss Tuesday. 

15* Bulls/Kings NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago +5.5 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Chicago Bulls tonight as road underdogs to the Sacramento Kings.  They have lost seven of their last nine games overall.  But they are coming in on two days’ rest and will be primed for a big effort today against a Kings team that is very beatable. 

It’s also time to ‘sell high’ on the Kings, who are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall and starting to become overvalued because of it.  They are coming off a huge upset home win over the Denver Nuggets, which also makes them primed for a letdown here against the Bulls. 

Keep in mind during this 12-1 ATS run the Kings were underdogs in all but three games, and they were never favored by more than 3 points.  So they are now laying their biggest number since October 30th at home against the Hornets.  And they have been mostly dogs during this stretch because they are still missing De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III.  They are far from full strength.  Take the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 

I love the situation for the New Orleans Pelicans today.  This is a home-and-home situation.  The Thunder just beat the Pelicans 109-104 at home on Friday.  Now these teams play in a rematch at New Orleans just two days later.  The Pelicans will be highly motivated for revenge in this one. 

The Thunder are just 1-7 on the road this season and giving up 110.4 points per game.  The Pelicans have played their best basketball at home and nearly upset the Lakers are 6.5-point home dogs in their last home game.  They should have no problem covering this short 2.5-point spread tonight. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with all six wins coming by 4 points or more.  The Thunder are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 Sunday games.  The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with the Pelicans Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple -2 

The Davidson Wildcats are one of the most overrated teams in the country because they returned all five starters this year.  But those starters are clearly mediocre as the Wildcats are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their seven games this season. 

Davidson has had some ugly performances to say the least.  They were upset as 10-point favorites in a 13-point loss at Charlotte.  They were upset by Wake Forest as 9-point favorites in a 12-point loss on a neutral.  And they lost by 10 to Marquette as 2.5-point dogs. 

Temple is 5-1 this season and has some impressive wins.  They went on the road and beat both La Salle and USC, topping the Trojans as 9-point dogs.  Temple’s only loss this season came against one of the best teams in the country in Maryland as 9-point dogs in a 7-point loss on a neutral.  The Owls are coming off a 65-42 blowout win over Texas A&M on the road as well. 

Davidson is 2-9 ATS in non-conference road games over the last two seasons.  The Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  Temple is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 neutral site games.  Davidson is 0-5 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  The Wildcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  Bet Temple Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Hornets +13.5 

The Milwaukee Bucks are 16-3 this season, but they have been struggling to cover these big spreads they are asked to lay night in and night out.  That has been the case here of late especially as the Bucks are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. 

Milwaukee only won 119-110 at Cleveland as 11.5-point favorites last night.  They only won 111-102 as 14.5-point home favorites over Atlanta the game before.  They only won 122-118 as 8.5-point home favorites over Utah, 137-129 as 14-point home favorites over Portland and 135-127 as 11-point favorites over Atlanta in their previous three games.  They did cover by one in a 14-point win over Detroit as a 13-point favorite in a 1-5 ATS stretch over their last six. 

Charlotte has rarely lost by this kind of margin.  In fact, in their last 12 games, the Hornets have only been beaten twice by more than 10 points.  They are coming off two straight upset wins and they certainly believe they can hang with the Bucks tonight. 

Milwaukee is 36-59 ATS in its last 95 games as a favorite of 10 points or more.  The Hornets are 8-0 ATS in their last eight vs. NBA Central Division opponents.  Charlotte is 4-0 ATS in its last four games playing on zero days’ rest.  Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win.  The Hornets are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Hornets Saturday. 

15* Florida State/Purdue CBB No-Brainer on Florida State +1 

The Florida State Seminoles have the home-court advantage in this neutral site affair with the Purdue since it is played in Niceville, Florida.  The Seminoles are 6-1 this season with their only loss coming at Pitt by a final of 61-63.  They went on to beat Florida 63-51 as 6-point road dogs.  And yesterday they topped No. 17 Tennessee 60-57. 

The Purdue Boilermakers lost a lot of talent from the team that made the Elite 8 last year.  Carsen Edwards single-handedly got them to the Elite 8, but he’s now gone.  The Boilermakers were upset at home by Texas 66-70 as 6.5-point favorites and they lost by 10 at Marquette in a pick ‘em role.  They were fortunate to escape with a 59-56 win over VCU last night. 

I like the fact that FSU played the early game yesterday and got to watch the Purdue/VCU game for scouting reasons.  It also makes the Seminoles the more fresh team, though it’s never a problem with them because they are always so deep, and they once again have some great depth this year. 

FSU is 21-5 ATS in its last 26 games as a neutral court dog of 6 points or less.  The Seminoles are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games overall.  Wrong team favored here.  Roll with Florida State Saturday. 

15* Texas Tech/Creighton CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas Tech -6 

The Texas Tech Red Raiders blitzed out to a 5-0 start this season with all five wins coming by 15 points or more.  But then they were upset by Iowa as 7-point favorites yesterday, and I think they are undervalued now today against Creighton as a result. 

There’s no question Texas Tech is the better team.  Creighton is 4-2 SU but 1-5 ATS this season.  They lost by 10 at Michigan and were embarrassed by 31 by San Diego State yesterday.  They also struggled to put away Cal Poly in a 16-point home win as 24.5-point favorites.  And they only beat North Florida by 9 as 17-point home favorites.  They aren’t even in the same class at Texas Tech, and it will show on the scoreboard. 

Creighton is 8-18 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  Texas Tech is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games overall.  The Red Raiders are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Texas Tech is 5-0 ATS in its last five games off an ATS loss.  The Bluejays are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Creighton is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. Big 12 opponents.  Roll with Texas Tech Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Grizzlies UNDER 220 

I think there’s great value with this UNDER tonight.  The Jazz and Grizzlies just met on November 15th with the Grizzlies winning 107-106 at home for 213 combined points.  These teams are now very familiar with one another and will be playing just two weeks later.  That favors the defenses. 

This has always been a low-scoring series.  In fact, the Jazz and Grizzlies haven’t combined for more than 218 points in any of the last 43 meetings.  That makes for a perfect 43-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 220-point total. 

Memphis is 15-3 UNDER in home games off two or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 24-9 in Jazz last 33 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 22-7 in the last 29 meetings in Memphis.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego State -3 

The San Diego State Aztecs are one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  They are off to a 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS start this season with six wins by 13 points or more.  They also pulled the upset 76-71 at BYU as 4-point dogs. 

Yesterday, San Diego State blasted Creighton 83-52 as 2.5-point favorites.  That blowout afforded the Aztecs the ability to rest their starters late so they’ll still be fresh for Iowa today.  I think that’s a huge advantage and one that will help them cover this 3-point spread. 

Iowa pulled off a shocking 72-61 upset win as 7-point dogs over Texas Tech yesterday.  They had to play their starters all the way until the final buzzer because Texas Tech kept making runs at them.  And after beating the Red Raiders, the Hawkeyes are clearly getting more respect than they deserve.  Remember, Iowa lost 78-93 at home to DePaul as 9.5-point favorites. 

The Aztecs are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 vs. a team with a winning record.  San Diego State is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games.  Roll with San Diego State Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -7.5 

I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  This is a home-and-home situation after these two teams played in Charlotte on Wednesday.  The Hornets won that game 102-101 in thrilling fashion.  Now the Pistons will want their revenge at home tonight and will clearly be the more motivated team.  I believe it leads to a blowout win in Detroit’s favor. 

The Pistons have been great at home here of late.  They beat the Hawks 128-103 as 6-point favorites and topped the Magic 103-88 as 5-point favorites in their two most recent home games.  They are 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS at home this season. 

The Hornets are just 3-7 on the road this season and getting outscored by 9.8 points per game.  In their last four road games, the Hornets are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS losing by 17 at Miami, by 7 at Washington, by 10 at Brooklyn and by 36 at Toronto. 

The Hornets are 7-25 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last three seasons.  The Hornets will be playing their 9th game in 15 days, while the Pistons will be playing just their 7th game in 19 days.  The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet the Pistons Friday. 

15* Tennessee/FSU CBB No-Brainer on Florida State -1 

For starters, Florida State will have the home-court advantage with this neutral site game being played in Niceville, FL.  And I simply believe the Seminoles are the better team and are favored for good reason despite being unranked and facing No. 17 Tennessee. 

The Vols are getting too much respect for what they did last year.  But they only brought back one starter from that team.  They are 5-0 this season, but it has come against an easy schedule with the five wins coming against UNC-Asheville, Murray State, Washington, Alabama State and UT-Chattanooga. 

Florida State is 5-1 this season with its only loss coming by two points at Pitt, 61-63.  The Seminoles went on to blow out Florida 63-51 as 6-point road dogs to show what they are capable of.  They also played UT-Chattanooga, beating them 89-53 at home while Tennessee only beat Chattanooga 58-46 at home.  That gives them a common opponent and shows that FSU is clearly the better team. 

Plays against neutral court underdogs (Tennessee) - after three straight wins by 10 points or more against an opponent that’s off a blowout win by 20 points or more are 32-14 (69.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Seminoles are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. SEC opponents.  The Vols are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Bet Florida State Friday. 

15* Iowa State/Seton Hall ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Seton Hall -2.5 

Iowa State used a lot of energy in their 104-89 shootout win against a bad Alabama team yesterday.  Now the Cyclones will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days and don’t have much of a bench.  They will be the more tired team in this matchup. 

That’s because Seton Hall made easy work of Southern Miss 81-56 yesterday and was allowed to rest its starters down the stretch.  This is clearly a very good Seton Hall team, taking both Michigan State (73-76) and Oregon (69-71) to the wire.  Oregon and Michigan State are two of the best teams in the country. 

Seton Hall is 8-1 ATS when playing with one or fewer days’ rest over the last three seasons.  The Pirates are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games.  Take Seton Hall Friday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Tech -6.5 

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are back at it this season in being among the best teams in the country after finishing as runners-up to Virginia last year for the national title.  They have come back hungry this season to prove that the runs to the Elite 8 and the National Championship Game the past two years were no fluke. 

Indeed, the Red Raiders are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season with all five wins coming by 15 points or more and by an average of 26.8 points per game.  They are once again elite defensively, holding opponents to 60.2 points per game and nearly 15 points per game less than their season averages.  Offensively, they are scoring 87.0 points per game and averaging 11.3 points per game more than their opponents normally allow. 

Iowa is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS this season.  The Hawkeyes have played all five games at home thus far against some suspect competition.  Their four wins have come against SIU Edwardsville, Oral Roberts, North Florida and Cal Poly.  And they were upset in a 78-93 home loss to DePaul as 9.5-point favorites.  The Hawkeyes are giving up 70.8 points per game this season, only holding opponents to 1.4 points per game less than their season averages.  They are once again a soft defensive team this year. 

Iowa is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off a win by more than 20 points.  The Hawkeyes are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games off three straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Red Raiders are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Texas Tech is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Red Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten opponents.  Bet Texas Tech Thursday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 

The Portland Trail Blazers just got back Damian Lillard from injury.  They promptly went on the road and crushed the Bulls 117-94 as 1-point favorites.  Now they are back home following a tough six-game road trip and in need of wins. 

The Blazers should be able to handle their business against a tired Oklahoma City Thunder team that has played four straight grueling nail biters.  They lost three straight to the Clippers and Lakers (twice) before barely escaping with a 100-97 win at Golden State on Monday.  They’ll now be playing their 4th road game in their last five contests. 

The Blazers own the Thunder, going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  And this is a Thunder team that isn’t nearly as good as the one they’ve been up against over the past few seasons.  They no longer have Russell Westbrook and Paul George. 

Portland is 33-16-3 ATS in its last 52 games off a win by more than 10 points.  Oklahoma City is 16-36 ATS in its last 52 games off a road win by 3 points or less.  The Thunder are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Blazers Wednesday. 

20* Seton Hall/Oregon ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Oregon -1 

The Oregon Ducks are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season and ranked No. 11 in the country for good reason.  They have won all five games by 8 points or more and their schedule has not been easy as they’ve played Fresno State (won by 14), Boise State (won by 31), Memphis (won by 8) and Houston (won by 12). 

Seton Hall is also off to a good start this season at 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS.  Their narrow home loss to Michigan State doesn’t look so good now after Michigan State was just upset as 13.5-point favorites against Virginia Tech and barely beat Georgia.  Seton Hall is mostly a one-man show with Myles Powell and the Ducks’ elite defense will be prepared to stop him. 

Oregon is giving up 63.8 points per game and 36.1% shooting.  That’s impressive when you consider they have faced some great offensive teams that average 80.1 points per game on the season.  They are holding their opponents to 16.3 points per game less than their season averages. 

Oregon is 9-0 ATS in its last nine neutral site games.  The Ducks are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Seton Hall is 0-4 ATS in its last four games off a win by more than 20 points.  Bet Oregon Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Wichita State +1 

The Wichita State Shockers are off to an impressive 6-0 start this season.  They returned three starters for head coach Gregg Marshall this season and should be able to make a run at the NCAA Tournament after settling for the NIT last year.  They won nine of their final 11 AAC games last year and made a run to the NIT semifinals, which greatly benefited them this season. 

Wichita State crushed South Carolina 70-47 yesterday behind another dominant defensive performance.  They held the Gamecocks to 32.1% shooting and have now held all six of their opponents to 39.3% or less.  They are giving up just 56.2 points per game and 35.9% shooting on the season, holding opponents to 15.1 points per game less than their season averages. 

West Virginia is 5-0 but just 2-3 ATS.  They only beat Northern Colorado by 8 and Akron by 10 at home.  They were fortunate to make this title game because they had a 15-point comeback win over Northern Iowa yesterday and took the lead in the final seconds on an And-1 following a bogus flagrant foul.  They scored 5 points with the clock stopped, and it was the difference in the game.  They won’t be so fortunate against Wichita State today. 

The Shockers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games after three straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 37% or less.  Wichita State is 9-2 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.  The Shockers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Mountaineers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  West Virginia is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 non-conference games.  Roll with Wichita State Wednesday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -1.5 

The Indiana Pacers have been flying under the radar over the past month.  They are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games overall with their only losses coming to Houston, Milwaukee and Charlotte (by 2).  They are getting no respect at home tonight as only 1.5-point favorites over the Utah Jazz. 

The Pacers are as healthy as they’ve been all season as they have everyone but Victor Oladipo healthy now.  It’s a big reason why they are playing so well.  And the Pacers will certainly have fresh legs as this will be just their 3rd game in 9 days. 

Indiana has had Utah’s number in recent seasons.  The Pacers are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  They won by 33 at Utah and by 27 at home against the Jazz in their two meetings last year. 

Plays against underdogs (Utah) - off a road cover where they lost SU as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 58-17 (77.3%) ATS since 1996.  Indiana is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Northern Iowa +1 

The Northern Iowa Panthers are 6-1 this season and have their best team in years.  They closed last season very strong and have welcomed back four starters this season and a ton of talent.  If not for a blown 15-point lead against West Virginia yesterday and a bogus flagrant foul call late, they’d be 7-0. 

Look for the Panthers to come back today and beat a very bad South Carolina team.  South Carolina is coming off a 16-16 season last year and two of their top three scores from that team in Chris Silva (15.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG last year) and Hassani Gravett (11.4 PPG). 

South Carolina is 4-2 this season, but they were upset 70-78 at home by Boston U as 15.5-point favorites.  And they barely beat Gardner Webb by 5 as 15-point favorites before getting crushed 47-70 by Wichita State yesterday.  I was on Wichita State yesterday, and I’ll fade the Gamecocks again today. 

Northern Iowa is 34-11 ATS in its last 45 neutral court games with a total of 129.5 or less.  The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. SEC opponents.  The Gamecocks are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.  South Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games.  Take Northern Iowa Wednesday. 

15* Clippers/Mavs NBA TV ANNIIHILATOR on Dallas +2.5 

The Dallas Mavericks are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by 7 points or more.  And it’s not like they are beating up on cupcakes as they topped the defending champion Raptors 110-102 at home and went on the road and upset the Rockets 137-123 as 5.5-point dogs. 

Now, the Mavericks will host one of the favorites to win the title in the Los Angeles Clippers, and I think they’ll be up to the challenge.  The Clippers have also won five straight, but they’ve been much less impressive with wins by 2, 3 and 3 points.  And all five wins came at home. 

The Clippers are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS on the road this season where they are giving up 119.2 points per game.  They have benefited from a very easy home-heavy schedule with 12 games at home compared to just five on the road. 

Home-court advantage has been huge int his series as the home team is 9-0 SU & 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Mavericks are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Clippers.  Roll with the Mavericks Tuesday. 

20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Wichita State -3 

The Wichita State Shockers are off to an impressive 5-0 start this season.  They returned three starters for head coach Gregg Marshall this season and should be able to make a run at the NCAA Tournament after settling for the NIT last year.  They won nine of their final 11 AAC games last year and made a run to the NIT semifinals, which greatly benefited them this season. 

South Carolina is coming off a 16-16 season last year and two of their top three scores from that team in Chris Silva (15.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG last year) and Hassani Gravett (11.4 PPG).  The Gamecocks are off to a 4-1 start this season against. Very soft schedule with five home against against suspect competition.   

The Gamecocks lost to Boston U 70-78 at home as 15.5-point favorites and didn’t respond well in their next game, only beating Gardner Webb 74-69 as 15-point favorites.  That gives Wichita State a common opponent as they also played Gardner Webb, crushing them 74-52 as 15.5-point home favorites. 

The Shockers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Wichita State is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  South Carolina is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 non-conference games.  The Gamecocks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  Bet Wichita State Tuesday. 

15* Stanford/Oklahoma ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford +5 

Head coach Jarod Haase clearly has the best team he has had at Stanford as he enters his fourth year with the program.  The Cardinal returned three starters this year and came away with a tremendous recruiting class.  Things are looking up for Stanford. 

Indeed, the Cardinal are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS this season with all six wins coming by 11 points or more.  They have two common opponents with Oklahoma this season, which would lead me to believe that Stanford is the better team and shouldn’t be catching points here. 

Oklahoma is also 5-0, but failed to cover the spread against the same two teams that Stanford played.  They beat William & Mary 75-70, while Stanford beat W&M 81-50.  They beat Maryland East Shore by 27, and Stanford beat Maryland East Shore by 21.  So Stanford has outscored those two teams by an average of 26.0 points per game, while Oklahoma has only outscored them by 16.0 points per game. 

Stanford is shooting 43% from 3-point range this season, while Oklahoma is only shooting 30.2%.  The Cardinal are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games after two straight games making 50% of their 3-point shots or better.  Take Stanford Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +9.5 

I like the value we are getting on the Memphis Grizzlies today.  The Pacers would have to win by double-digits to beat us, and I don’t see that happening.  The Pacers aren’t a good enough team to be laying double-digits to almost anyone. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Indiana, which has won nine of its last 12 games coming in.  It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Grizzlies, who have lost three straight coming in.  But they barely lost 108-109 to the Lakers as 8-point dogs last time out.  And now the Grizzlies will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days tonight. 

Plays on road underdogs (Memphis) - off three or more consecutive losses, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 81-46 (63.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Grizzlies are 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  Roll with the Grizzlies Monday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -4.5 

The Detroit Pistons are as healthy as they’ve been all season.  The only key player they are missing now is Reggie Jackson.  They should be a good bet in the short term because they are undervalued now after a 5-11 SU & 5-9-2 ATS start this season. 

Injuries have taken their toll on the Orlando Magic.  They are playing without arguably their two best players in Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic, and they are also without PG Michael Carter-Williams.  They lost by 16 in Toronto and by 5 in Indiana in their last two games coming in.  It’s going to get worse before it gets better for the Pacers until Gordon and Vucevic return. 

The Magic are 0-6 SU & 2-4 ATS on the road this season.  The Pistons are 37-13 SU & 28-18-4 ATS in their last 50 home meetings with the Magic.  The home team is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.  Take the Pistons Monday. 

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri -1 

The Missouri Tigers are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start this year with their only loss coming on the road at Xavier in overtime.  Their four wins have all come by 15 points or more. 

The Tigers returned three starters this season and added in some great recruits.  Their three returning starters are all having solid seasons in Mark Smith (13.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG this year), Jeremiah Tilmon (11.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG) and Javon Pickett (5.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG).  Dru Smith (11.6 PPG, 4.8 APG) is a transfer from Evansville, and Xavier Pinson (9.2 PPG, 3.8 APG) has taken his game to the next level after coming off the bench last year. 

Butler is coming off a 16-17 season and it’s clear head coach LaVall Jordan is falling short of expectations.  The Bulldogs only returned two starters this year and one is Aaron Thompson (6.3 PPG, 4.3 APG last year).  The Bulldogs are 5-0 but it has come against an easy schedule with five home games. 

This is technically a neutral site game, but it won’t be neutral at all.  It will be played at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO and the Tigers will have a huge home-court edge.  Butler is 3-16 ATS in road games off a home game over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-9 ATS in road games off two or more straight wins over the last three years.  Butler is 1-9 ATS in road games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  Bet Missouri Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -3.5 

The Washington Wizards continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as only 3.5-point home favorites against the injury-ravaged Sacramento Kings tonight.  The Wizards are 10-3 ATS this season and have been one of the best covering teams in the league. 

The Wizards come in playing their best basketball of the season, going 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They only lost by 7 at Boston as 7.5-point dogs and by 4 at Orlando as 5.5-point dogs.  They beat Minnesota by 21 on the road as 5.5-point dogs, topped the Spurs by 6 at home as 2-point dogs and covered in a 7-point win over the Hornets as 6-point home favorites. 

The Kings are coming off a bad 19-point loss at Brooklyn and things are going to get worse before they get better due to their injuries.  They are playing without De’Aaron Fox, Marvin Bagley, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Trevor Ariza right now. 

The Wizards are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Kings.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 10-2 SU & 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the Wizards Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Rhode Island +6.5 

The Rhode Island Rams were in a rebuilding year last season and went just 18-15 (9-9 A-10) in David Cox’s first season on the job.  But now Cox returns all five starters and a ton of experience, which makes the Rams a dark horse contender to compete for the A-10 title. 

The five returning starters are Fatts Russell (14.2 PPG last year), Cyril Langevine (14.7 PPG, 9.9 RPG), Jeff Dowtin (15.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG), Tyrese Martin (8.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Jermaine Harris (4.4 PPG).  That’s a ton of returning production.  The Rams are off to a 4-1 start this season with a win over Alabama and their only loss coming to a Top 10 Maryland team on the road. 

LSU lost a couple players to the NBA and isn’t nearly as good as it was last year.  The Tigers are 3-2 this season with losses to the two best teams they’ve faced in VCU and Utah State.  LSU struggled to put away Bowling Green by 9 at home as 13-point favorites and Nicholls State by 10 at home as 21-point favorites.  They should not be favored by 6.5 on a neutral over Rhode Island today. 

The Tigers are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games.  LSU is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall.  Rhode Island is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four vs. SEC opponents.  Roll with Rhode Island Sunday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans have gotten healthy finally and are starting to play their best basketball of the season as a result.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, and they should not be catching 7.5 points to the Utah Jazz given the awful spot for Utah. 

Indeed, the Jazz will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after needing some late game heroics to beat a bad Golden State team 113-109 as 16-point favorites last night.  The Jazz won’t have much left in the tank for the Pelicans, who play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA and will test a Jazz team playing their 3rd game in 4 days. 

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Pelicans pulled the upset in each of their last two trips to Utah, and they haven’t lost by more than 8 points in any of their last six trips to Salt Lake City. 

Plays on road underdogs (New Orleans) - a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 48-15 (76.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New Orleans) - off a road win, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Pelicans Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +7.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies are coming off an ugly blowout home loss to the Golden State Warriors, failing to cover the spread by 25.5 points.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them now, and this is a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Grizzlies. 

The Grizzlies have had three days off to stew over that loss, and now they’ll be fresh, motivated and ready to go with Lebron James and company coming to town tonight.  They will certainly be up for this game, and it’s understandable they thought they could just show up and beat the Warriors. 

The Lakers are in an awful spot.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a grueling, 130-127 shootout win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on the road last night.  Now they have to travel all the way to Memphis and will be playing on tired legs.  The Lakers are already overvalued after winning 13 of their last 14 games overall, and we’ll gladly ’sell high’ on them in this flat spot. 

Plays on home underdogs (Memphis) - revenging a road loss by 10 points or Moree, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS since 1996.  The Lakers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Grizzlies Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +2.5 

The San Antonio Spurs are a complete dumpster fire.  They have gone 0-8 SU & 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and are now a league-worst 2-13-1 ATS on the season.  It’s not going to get any better for them tonight. 

The Spurs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  They lost 104-115 on the road to the 76ers last night and will be playing their 4th straight road game.  Simply put, the Spurs are running on fumes right now. 

The Knicks have finally gotten healthy and are playing their best basketball of the season coming in.  The Knicks are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They upset the Mavericks as 7.5-point home dogs and blew out the Cavs by 18 as 5.5-point home favorites.  They only lost by a single point to the Hornets, and they gave Philadelphia a battle on the road in a 104-109 road loss as 13-point dogs last time out.   

Now the Knicks come in on two days’ rest having last played on Wednesday and will be fresh and ready to go.  The Spurs will have nothing left in the tank and will lose their 9th straight game tonight.  Roll with the Knicks Saturday. 

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Florida International -8 

Jeremy Ballard turned around the FIU program in his first season last year.  He guided the Panthers to their first 20-win season since the program joined Division 1, and only their second winning record since 2001.  The former VCU assistant won’t be at FIU for long. 

Ballard implemented an up-tempo offense that averaged 77 possessions, which was more than any other team in the nation with the average offensive trip lasting 14.1 seconds, also the fastest in the land.  Their full-court pressure forced turnovers on 23.4 percent (7th) of opponent’s possessions, and they converted those into 23 points per game in transition (4th). 

The Panthers returned four starters this season in Devon Andrews (15.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG last year), Osasumwen Osaghae (8.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.1 BPG), Trefjon Jacob (10.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG) and Antonio Daye Jr. (8.3 PPG).  I think we are getting this team cheap todayt because they are just 2-2, but they covered the spread in both of their road losses to Mississippi State (69-77) as 16.5-point dogs and NC State (77-86) as 17.5-point dogs.  Then they went on to blow out Cleveland State 107-61 as 7.5-point road favorites.  And yesterday they beat Eastern Kentucky 89-70 as 7.5-point favorites.  This team is a sleeping giant folks. 

UNC-Wilmington has some very concerning results this year.  They are 3-3 and lost by 38 at Davidson as 15.5-point favorites.  Perhaps the more concerning result is their 46-47 loss to Cleveland State as 5.5-point favorites last week.  That’s the same Cleveland State team FIU beat 107-61 on the road, giving these teams a common opponent.  This game has blowout written all over it, and I’m shocked FIU isn’t a double-digit favorite.  Bet Florida International Saturday. 

20* Rockets/Clippers ESPN 2-0 Parlay SWEEPER on Los Angeles -5/UNDER 229 

Reasons for Clippers: 

The Clippers want revenge from a 93-102 road loss at Houston on November 13th just nine days ago.  Look for them to have their revenge as they get the Rockets at home this time around, plus they have Paul George now with a few games under his belt and feeling confident in his role. 

The Clippers are 9-1 SU & 6-3 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 10.7 points per game at home.  It will be a great atmosphere for the Clippers here Friday night. 

The Rockets are overvalued after going 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last eight games overall against suspect competition.  I faded them with success in their 95-105 loss at Denver on Wednesday, and I’m fading them again tonight. 

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Houston) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Clippers are 15-5 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  Bet the Clippers Friday. 

Reasons for UNDER: 

These teams are obviously very familiar with one another having played just nine days ago.  Familiarity breeds low-scoring games.  And that game saw just 195 combined points, and now we have a total of 229, which is 34 points higher.  There’s clearly a ton of value with the UNDER. 

The Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA now with their ability to switch on the perimeter with Patrick Beverly, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.  Those guys have tremendous wing spans and they are going to give James Harden and Russell Westbrook problems. 

The Rockets have been very good defensively, too.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Rockets last 11 games overall.  They have allowed 108 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games.  They are missing Eric Gordon on offense and that has certainly hurt their floor spacing on that end. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA Clippers) - after going under the total by 18 or more points in their last three games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 30-10 (75%) since 1996. 

Houston is 10-1 UNDER in road games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 6-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 20-6 in Rockets last 26 road games, including 7-0 in November road games.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Clippers last 10 home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* Rockets/Clippers ESPN 2-0 Parlay SWEEPER on Los Angeles -5/UNDER 229 

Reasons for Clippers: 

The Clippers want revenge from a 93-102 road loss at Houston on November 13th just nine days ago.  Look for them to have their revenge as they get the Rockets at home this time around, plus they have Paul George now with a few games under his belt and feeling confident in his role. 

The Clippers are 9-1 SU & 6-3 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 10.7 points per game at home.  It will be a great atmosphere for the Clippers here Friday night. 

The Rockets are overvalued after going 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last eight games overall against suspect competition.  I faded them with success in their 95-105 loss at Denver on Wednesday, and I’m fading them again tonight. 

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Houston) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Clippers are 15-5 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  Bet the Clippers Friday. 

Reasons for UNDER: 

These teams are obviously very familiar with one another having played just nine days ago.  Familiarity breeds low-scoring games.  And that game saw just 195 combined points, and now we have a total of 229, which is 34 points higher.  There’s clearly a ton of value with the UNDER. 

The Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA now with their ability to switch on the perimeter with Patrick Beverly, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.  Those guys have tremendous wing spans and they are going to give James Harden and Russell Westbrook problems. 

The Rockets have been very good defensively, too.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Rockets last 11 games overall.  They have allowed 108 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games.  They are missing Eric Gordon on offense and that has certainly hurt their floor spacing on that end. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA Clippers) - after going under the total by 18 or more points in their last three games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 30-10 (75%) since 1996. 

Houston is 10-1 UNDER in road games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 6-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 20-6 in Rockets last 26 road games, including 7-0 in November road games.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Clippers last 10 home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. 

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Oregon -6.5 

The Oregon Ducks are one of the best teams in the country this season.  They are proving it quickly with a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season.  They beat Fresno by 14, Boise by 31, Memphis by 8 and UT-Arlington by 20. And now they will get another double-digit win over Houston tonight. 

The Houston Cougars are still being priced like the team that went 33-4 last season.  But the Cougars are far from that team as they lost four starters from that squad in Corey Davis (17.0 PPG), Armani Brooks (13.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG), Galen Robinson Jr. (8.0 PPG, 4.9 APG) and Braeon Brady (6.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG). 

Houston has opened 4-0 SU & 1-2 ATS.  They were upset at home by BYU 71-72 as 11.5-point favorites.  And they trailed Rice by 9 in the final five minutes before going on a big run to pull out the 97-89 win as 13-point favorites.  Now they will face their toughest test yet by far tonight. 

Oregon is 14-2 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons.  The Ducks are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Oregon is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. 

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Oregon) - a top team outscoring their opponents by 12-plus points per game, after allowing 50 points or less last game are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Oregon Friday. 

15* CBB Friday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Florida International -7.5 

Jeremy Ballard turned around the FIU program in his first season last year.  He guided the Panthers to their first 20-win season since the program joined Division 1, and only their second winning record since 2001.  The former VCU assistant won’t be at FIU for long. 

Ballard implemented an up-tempo offense that averaged 77 possessions, which was more than any other team in the nation with the average offensive trip lasting 14.1 seconds, also the fastest in the land.  Their full-court pressure forced turnovers on 23.4 percent (7th) of opponent’s possessions, and they converted those into 23 points per game in transition (4th). 

The Panthers returned four starters this season in Devon Andrews (15.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG last year), Osasumwen Osaghae (8.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.1 BPG), Trefjon Jacob (10.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG) and Antonio Daye Jr. (8.3 PPG).  I think we are getting this team cheap todayt because they are just 2-2, but they covered the spread in both of their road losses to Mississippi State (69-77) as 16.5-point dogs and NC State (77-86) as 17.5-point dogs.  Then they went on to blow out Cleveland State 107-61 as identical 7.5-point road favorites.  This team is a sleeping giant folks. 

Eastern Kentucky is picked to finish near the bottom of the Ohio Valley Conference this season and for good reason.  They went just 13-18 last year and lost two double-digit scorers in Nick Mayo (23.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG) and Dujuanta Weaver (10.2 PPG).  That’s a lot of production lost.  The Colonels are 3-2, but their three wins have all come at home against Chattanooga, Chillicothe and Alice Lloyd.  They lost by 42 at Kentucky and by 8 at home to Western Kentucky. 

Eastern Kentucky is 1-9 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Colonels are 0-7 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three years.  The Golden Panthers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games off a win by more than 20 points.  FIU is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Take Florida International Friday. 

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on UConn -3.5 

The UConn Huskies are in Year 2 under Dan Hurley.  I expect them to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are off to a 2-1 start this season with an impressive upset win over Florida.  They returned four key players who all averaged at least 8.4 points per game last year. 

Christian Vital (19.3 PPG, 9.0 RPG) is a senior guard who is among the AAC’s best players.  Josh Carlton (13.3 PPG, 8.3 RPG) was the AAC’s most improved player last year and is taking that next step.  Alterique Gilbert (12.7 PPG) is finally healthy after battling shoulder injuries his entire career.  Tyler Polley (12.7 PPG) is a sweet stroke and is shooting 47.1% from 3-point range after making 38% last year. 

Buffalo is a team I’m looking to fade in the early going.  They are coming off their most wins in program history, and as a result they lost head coach Nate Oats to Alabama.  Jim Whitesell is in his first season and the Bulls have to replace five crucial seniors, including CJ Massinburg (18.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG last year) and Jeremy Harris (14.0 PPG, 6.2 RPG).  They don’t return a single double-digit scorer from last year’s team. 

We saw a sign of things to come in Buffalo’s opener when it was upset 63-68 at home by Dartmouth as an 11.5-point favorite.  And their two wins came against Nazareth and Harvard, so this will be a big step up in class facing UConn tonight. 

UConn is 17-5 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in a week over the last two seasons.  The Huskies are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games off a close win by 3 points or less.  The Huskies will have gained a ton of confidence with that upset win over Florida, and it will carry over to this matchup with Buffalo tonight.  Bet UConn Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Toledo +8 

The Toledo Rockets are among the favorites to win the MAC this season and for good reason.  Toledo head coach Td Kowalcyk enters his 10th season with the program, and the Rockets are a perennial contender.  They are coming off a 25-8 season and a first-place finish in the MAC West. 

Now the Rockets return three starters in Marreon Jackson (11.7 PPG, 4.2 APG last year), Luke Knapke (10.5 PPG, 6.6 RPG) and William Jackson (8.5 PPG, 8.8 RPG).  The Rockets are off to a 3-1 start this season with their only loss coming on the road to Valparaiso in their opener by 2 points.  They have blowout wins over Marshall (by 26), Robert Morris (by 14) and Howard (by 44). 

Notre Dame is coming off a disastrous 14-19 season.  The Fighting Irish returned five starters this year, but they don’t have much talent.  That’s clear when you consider despite being 4-1 SU they are just 1-4 ATS this season.  They only beat Marshall by 10 as 19-point home favorites and Presbyterian by 10 as 26.5-point home favorites in their last two games coming in.  Toledo won at Marshall by 26 to give them a common opponent and a big reason they can stay within 8 points here. 

Notre Dame is 0-7 ATS off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. MAC opponents.  The Rockets are 11-3 ATS in road games off an ATS win over the last three seasons.  Take Toledo Thursday. 

15* Blazers/Bucks TNT ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -12 

The Milwaukee Bucks are back at it again this season challenging to be the best team in the NBA in the regular season.  They are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall with five of those wins coming by double-digits and seven of them by 8 points or more.  They are blowing teams in out on a regular basis, which is why I don’t mind laying this number with them Thursday. 

That’s especially the case when you consider they are up against a banged-up Blazers team that will be playing without Damian Lillard tonight.  They were already without Just Nurkic and Zach Collins, and they could be without both Hassan Whiteside and Anfernee Simons, who are both questionable. 

The Blazers have been a real dumpster fire of late, going 2-8 SU & 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with five losses by 8 points or more.  Their last two games were really dreadful as they lost by 24 at Houston and by 11 at New Orleans.  And they just recently lost Lillard to injury prior to that Pelicans game, so they were playing poorly with him, and now they’ll be even worse without his 28.6 points and 7.1 assists per game. 

The Bucks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Portland is 0-4-2 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Bucks are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Blazers, including a 143-100 home win last year.  Roll with the Bucks Thursday. 

15* Celtics/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Boston +6 

The Boston Celtics are 11-2 this season and still getting no respect from oddsmakers tonight as 6-point road underdogs to the Los Angeles Clippers.  It’s a Celtics team that has found their stride with Kemba Walker running the show and they look like one of the best teams in the NBA currently. 

The Clippers could be without Kawhi Leonard again tonight as he has missed two consecutive games with a left knee contusion.  They were barely able to escape with a 90-88 home victory over the Thunder as 7.5-point home favorites on Monday without him.  And they certainly won’t be able to put away the Celtics by margin with or without him tonight. 

Plays against home favorites (LA Clippers) - in non-conference games, off a home non-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 74-36 (67.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Boston is 14-2 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Celtics Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland +6.5 

I like the Portland Pilots catching points in this in-state rivalry with Portland State.  The Pilots clearly came into this season undervalued after going 7-25 last year and 0-16 in WCC play.  I think they’ll continue to be a money maker moving forward. 

Indeed, Portland is off to a 3-1 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season.  After beating Williamette by 50 in their opener, they gave USC a battle in a 65-76 road loss as 23-point dogs.  Then they upset San Jose State 72-57 as 3-point road dogs before covering against Maine in a 71-62 victory as 7.5-point home favorites.  They have covered the spread by a combined 31.5 points in their three lined games. 

Portland State is picked to finish near the bottom of the Big Sky this year and deservedly so.  They lost three starters and only brought back two players who averaged more than 4.3 points per game from last season.  They are 1-2 this season with their only win coming at home over Puget Sound by a final of 94-69.  They lost at Indiana and Hawaii and are coming off a trip to the Island. 

Portland State is 10-23 ATS in its last 33 vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game.  The Vikings are 0-9 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  The Pilots are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Pilots are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings at Portland State.  Roll with Portland Wednesday. 

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on UNLV -4 

The UNLV Rebels made a great hire in the offseason by nabbing T.J. Otzelberger from South Dakota State.  He went 70-33 in his three seasons there while guiding the Jack Rabbits to two NCAA Tournaments and an NIT.  While several players transferred or graduated, Otzelberger was able to keep two starters in Amauri Hardy (13.1 PPG, 3.5 APG last year) and Cheikh Mbacke Diong (6.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 40 blocks). 

The Rebels have won and covered their two home games against IUPU-Fort Wayne and Abilene Christian.  And they are certainly battle-tested in the early going with losses to Kansas State (by 4), Cal (by 4) and UCLA (by 17).  This tough early schedule will have the Rebels undervalued moving forward after a 2-3 start.  Hardy (19.0 PPG) is carrying the team, while transfers Elijah Mitrou-Long (12.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG) from Texas and Donnie Tillman (12.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG) from Utah have both proven to be huge gets for Otzelberger. 

Texas State also returns just two starters from last year and comes in overvalued after a 24-10 season.  The Bobcats are 3-2 with their three wins all coming at home against cupcakes in Texas Lutheran, Prairie View A&M and Jackson State.  They lost their two road games to Air Force and Baylor.  And now they will be playing their 2nd game in 3 days after beating Jackson State at home on Monday while having to travel to UNLV.  The Bobcats won’t be prepared for this game at all. 

Danny Kaspar is 10-20 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less or PK as the coach of Texas State.  The Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Otzelberger is 23-10 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game in all games as a head coach.  Bet UNLV Wednesday. 

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Nuggets -1 

The Houston Rockets are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Their run comes to an end tonight against a Denver Nuggets team that will be up to the challenge. 

The Rockets have been fasting on a pretty weak schedule as their eight wins have come against the Grizzlies, Warriors, Bulls, Pelicans, Clippers, Pacers, Timberwolves and Blazers.  This will be their toughest challenge in quite some time against a Nuggets team that has won six of their last seven overall coming in as well. 

The Nuggets had the best home record in the NBA last season, and the Pepsi Center is never an easy place to play thanks to the altitude.  Now we get a fresh Nuggets team playing just their 2nd game in 6 days, while the Rockets will be playing their 4th game in 6 days. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Nuggets are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Nuggets Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 

The Golden State Warriors might just be the worst team in the NBA now.  They are 2-12 this season and are without their top three scorers in Steph Curry, D’Angelo Russell and Klay Thompson.  There’s just not a lot to like about this team moving forward. 

The Memphis Grizzlies are starting to gel as a team.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with upset road wins over the Spurs as 10.5-point dogs and Hornets as 2.5-point dogs, as well as an upset home win over the Jazz as 8-point dogs. 

The Grizzlies have scored 115.1 points per game on 47.7% shooting at home this season.  They’ll be up against a Warriors team that gives up 119.0 points per game and 48% shooting overall, including 119.9 points per game and 48.8% shooting on the road.  Golden State is 1-6 on the highway and getting outscored by 11.5 points per game. 

The Warriors are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Golden State is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with the Grizzlies Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida International -7 

Jeremy Ballard turned around the FIU program in his first season last year.  He guided the Panthers to their first 20-win season since the program joined Division 1, and only their second winning record since 2001.  The former VCU assistant won’t be at FIU for long. 

Ballard implemented an up-tempo offense that averaged 77 possessions, which was more than any other team in the nation with the average offensive trip lasting 14.1 seconds, also the fastest in the land.  Their full-court pressure forced turnovers on 23.4 percent (7th) of opponent’s possessions, and they converted those into 23 points per game in transition (4th). 

The Panthers returned four starters this season in Devon Andrews (15.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG), Osasumwen Osaghae (8.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.1 BPG), Trefjon Jacob (10.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG) and Antonio Daye Jr. (8.3 PPG).  I think we are getting this team cheap tonight because they are just 1-2, but they covered the spread in both of their road losses to Mississippi State (69-77) as 16.5-point dogs and NC State (77-86) as 17.5-point dogs. 

Cleveland State is picked to finish last in the Horizon this season, and I fully agree with it.  The Vikings went 10-21 last season and brought in a new head coach in Dennis Gates.  They lost all five starters from last year and only brought back one key reserve.  The Vikings are 1-3 this season with a 35-point loss to Minnesota, a 20-point loss to Missouri State and a 27-point loss to South Carolina.  They are clearly a team in rebuilding mode.  Take Florida International Tuesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +9 

I like the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 115-124 loss at Milwaukee as 11.5-point dogs on Thursday.  Now they get a shot at revenge just four days later and are at home this time around catching 9 points. 

It’s pretty amazing the Bulls were able to stay with 9 points of the Bucks on the road while shooting just 40.9% as a team.  I have to think they are going to have a better shooting night this time around, and I have a hard time believing the Bucks are going to get to the free throw line a ridiculous 47 times again. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Milwaukee) - after having won five or six of their last seven games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 67-32 (67.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Bulls Monday. 

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Kentucky -25 

The Kentucky Wildcats are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight.  They were just upset by Evansville as 24.5-point favorites last time out on Tuesday.  They’ve had nearly a full week to stew over that loss and will now be looking to take out their frustration on Utah Valley State tonight. 

Utah Valley State is 3-1 this season but has played a pretty easy schedule.  It’s a Utah Valley team that lost four starters who all averaged at least 8.5 points per game last year.  Their lone returning starter is Isaiah White, who averaged 8.5 points and 4.4 rebounds last year.   

It will be the 3rd game in 7 days for Utah Valley, which hasn’t had much time to prepare for Kentucky.  The Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  Roll with Kentucky Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +7 

This young Grizzlies team has really turned it around after a slow start this season and they’re becoming fun to watch because they are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA.  The Grizzlies are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with upset wins over the Spurs, Hornets and Jazz as combined 21-point dogs. 

The Denver Nuggets have been overvalued all season.  Despite being 8-3 SU, they are just 3-6-2 ATS with a lot of close wins.  Indeed, seven of their eight wins have come by 8 points or fewer.  And if they do get a win Sunday over the Grizzlies, I believe it will be by 7 points or less. 

This has been a closely-contested series with each of the last five meetings decide by 7 points or less.  The Nuggets haven’t beaten the Grizzlies by more than 6 points in any of the last 15 meetings in Memphis.  That makes for a 15-0 system backing Memphis pertaining to this 7-point spread tonight.  Take the Grizzlies Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3 

The Boston Celtics have won 10 straight and will be highly motivated to keep this winning streak going as long as they can.  I think we are getting them cheap here against the Sacramento Kings as only 3-point road favorites. 

The Kings are in a hangover spot off their tough 2-point loss to the Lakers on Friday.  And this is a Kings team getting a lot of respect now after playing the Lakers close and covering six in a row coming in.  But they are without De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley, and I just don’t think they can keep up their good play without Fox especially. 

The Celtics are 7-1 SU in their last eight meetings with the Kings, and their domination in this series continues today.  Sacramento is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Celtics Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Bulls -2 

The Chicago Bulls are playing much better of late after a slow start.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and starting to live up to the lofty expectations they had prior to the season.  This is a team with so much talent that they simply cannot stay down for long. 

After hanging tough with Milwaukee in a losing effort on the road last time out, the Bulls return home here to face the reeling, banged up Brooklyn Nets.  The Nets have lost three straight coming in and are in a very tough spot here.  They will be playing their 5th straight road game, and it’s clear they are running out of gas. 

Making matters worse for the Nets is that they just recently lost starter Caris LeVert to a thumb injury.  And Kyrie Irving is trying to play through a shoulder injury that is clearly hampering him.  Irving has been well below his season average of 28.5 PPG during the three-game losing streak.  He had 17 against Denver, 27 against Utah, and 15 against Phoenix.  Irving is questionable to play tonight as well. 

The Nets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Brooklyn is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games overall.  The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Look for the Bulls to bounce back with a win and cover tonight at home.  Roll with the Bulls Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa -9 

The Northern Iowa Panthers nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year.  They caught fire in the second half of the season and led Bradley in the MVC title game 35-17 before falling apart.  It was clear after that run that they’d be a force in 2019-20 with all they had returning. 

Indeed, the Panthers returned six of their top seven scorers from last year.  They have six seniors and three juniors and are actually led by a sophomore in A.J. Green, who averaged 15.0 PPG last year.  Green is their highest rated recruit in program history and likely a future NBA talent. 

I like the fact that Northern Iowa took a trip to Italy in August to bond.  It has paid dividends in the early going as the Panthers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with two wins by double-digits.  Now they are laying less than doubles against a Northern Colorado team I expect them to handle at home today. 

Northern Colorado is returning four starters this year, but they play in a much weaker conference in the Big Sky. And their opening 45-69 loss at Texas as 16.5-point dogs says everything that needs to be said about this team.  Texas isn’t expected to be very good this season, and I believe Northern Iowa would give the Longhorns a run for their money. 

The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Expect Northern Iowa to continue its solid play in the early going this season and win this game by double-digits.  Take Northern Iowa Saturday. 

20* Jazz/Grizzlies ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Memphis +7.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies are starting to play well here having won three of their last five with upset wins over Minnesota (137-121) as 3.5-point home dogs, San Antonio (113-109) as 10.5-point road dogs and Charlotte (119-117) as 2.5-point road dogs.  This young team is growing together quickly and playing tremendous on the offensive end, shooting 50.6% or better in four of their last five games coming in. 

The Utah Jazz came into the season getting a ton of publicity for the moves they made in the offseason.  They were a popular dark horse title contender pick in the West.  But they’ve struggled to live up to expectations, going 8-3 SU but 4-7 ATS on the season.  That includes a 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS record in road games this year.  Their only road cover came against the hapless Golden State Warriors. 

I think Mike Conley’s feelings toward Memphis work against him here.  He loves the city of Memphis as they gave him every opportunity to be a star.  This will be his first time playing in Memphis as an opponent.  I don’t see it going well for him, and I think the Grizzlies have the motivational edge because of it.  The Grizzlies are 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Jazz.   

Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - after going under the total by 54 or more points in their last 10 games, in the first half of the season are 42-13 (76.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Grizzlies Friday. 

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Rhode Island +2 

The Rhode Island Rams were in a rebuilding year last season and went just 18-15 (9-9 A-10) in David Cox’s first season on the job.  But now Cox returns all five starters and a ton of experience, which makes the Rams a dark horse contender to compete for the A-10 title. 

The five returning starters are Fatts Russell (14.2 PPG last year), Cyril Langevine (14.7 PPG, 9.9 RPG), Jeff Dowtin (15.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG), Tyrese Martin (8.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Jermaine Harris (4.4 PPG).  That’s a ton of returning production, and I think the fact that they are coming off a road loss to Maryland has the Rams undervalued coming into this home game against Alabama tonight. 

Alabama is in rebuilding mode under first-year head coach Nate Oats.  They returned three starters but lost three key players in Tevin Mack, Donta Hall and Dazon Ingram.  Top-100 recruit Juwan Gary is out for the season with a knee injury, stud JC transfer James Rojas is also out for the season with a knee injury, and Villanova transfer Jahvon Quinerly is out for the season due to being ineligible.  Returning starter Herbert Jones is questionable to play tonight with an elbow injury. 

This is an Alabama team that was upset at home by Pennsylvania in their opener.  I don’t think they should be favored on the road here against this veteran Rhode Island team when they can’t even beat Penn at home.  The Crimson Tide will be playing their first road game of the season here.  They have only three days to get ready for Rhode Island, while the Rams have had five days off since the loss to Maryland to prepare.   

Alabama is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. Atlantic 10 opponents.  The Crimson Tide are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Roll with Rhode Island Friday. 

15* Mavs/Knicks TNT ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -7.5 

The Dallas Mavericks want revenge from a 102-106 home loss to the New York Knicks on November 8th as 10.5-point favorites.  They don’t even have to wait a week to get their revenge as now they play the Knicks on the road here as 7.5-point favorites on November 14th. 

I also like the fact that the Mavericks are coming off a loss in Boston to add to their motivation.  They come in on two days’ rest as well so they are fresh and ready to go.  Plus, the Mavericks are fully healthy right now and will be primed for a big effort. 

The Knicks are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Five of those six losses came by 12 points or more, so they are used to getting blown out on the regular.  And there’s been serious talks about firing their head coach David Fizdale in the media.  It’s just more of the same in New York this season. 

Dallas is 21-9 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Mavericks are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Knicks are 21-45 ATS in their last 66 home games.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to New York.  Take the Mavericks Thursday. 

15* Purdue/Marquette FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Marquette -1 

The Marquette Golden Eagles return three starters from a team that went 24-10 last season.  That includes National Playoer of the Year candidate Marcus Howard, who averaged 25.0 points per game last year.  They also return Sacar Animalities (8.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG) and Theo John (5.5 PPG, 4.9 RPG) and a couple key reserves. 

The Golden Eagles are off to a flying start this season with an 88-53 home win over Loyola-MD as an 18.5-point favorites.  Howard had 38 points, Anim had 11 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists,  and John had 7 points and 8 rebounds.  Utah State transfer Koby McEwen added 11 points and 7 boards.  Now they’ve had eight days to get ready for Purdue after playing that game on November 5th. 

Purdue loses a ton of talent from a team that made the Elite 8 last year and took eventual national champion Virginia to the wire.  Carsen Edwards (24.3 PPG, 135 3-pointers) is gone after single-handedly carrying the Boilermakers on their NCAA Tournament run.  Also gone is second-leading scorer Ryan Cline (12.0 PPG, 111 3-pointers).  Replacing those two is impossible. 

Purdue is off to a shaky start failing to cover as a 23-point home favorite against Wisconsin-Green Bay and losing outright as 6.5-point home favorites against Texas, 66-70.  The Boilermakers shot just 41% from the field against the Longhorns and allowed 53.3% shooting to a team that is notoriously a poor shooting team year in and year out. 

Purdue is 23-44 ATS in its last 67 road games after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite.  Marquette is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Boilermakers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big East opponents.  The Golden Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Take Marquette Wednesday. 

20* Clippers/Rockets ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +2.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers are the best team in the NBA from what I’ve seen thus far when Kawhi Leonard is on the floor.  They are 7-1 in games that he has played, and he’s expected to play tonight against the Houston Rockets despite this being a back-to-back situation with a game against the Pelicans tomorrow. 

Leonard is averaging 26.0 points, 8.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists this season to pick up right where he left off.  Both Lou Williams (22.3 PPG, 5.6 APG) and Matrezl Harrell (19.8 PPG, 7.1 RPG) have taken their games to the next level.  And guys like Ivaca Zubac, JayMychal Green and Patrick Beverley are all playing well. 

The Houston Rockets have some injury issues right now that will slow them down in the immediate future.  Eric Gordon won’t be back until late December after having knee surgery.  They were already without Gerald Green and Nene, and now Danuel House Jr. is out tonight with a back injury.  It’s a team that already lacks depth due to the massive contracts on the roster, and now they won’t have the depth to match the Clippers tonight. 

The Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Rockets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games playing on one days’ rest.  Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  The Clippers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.  Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Houston.  Take the Clippers Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -1 

Don’t be surprised if the Philadelphia 76ers decide to rest a star player or two tonight after a grueling 98-97 home win over Cleveland as 11-point favorites last night.  They’ll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 12 days. 

The Orlando Magic are rested and ready to go coming in on two days’ rest after last playing on Sunday.  The Magic are also highly motivated for a win tonight after dropping five of their last six games overall.  They are a respectable 3-3 at home this season compared to 0-4 on the road. 

Home-court advantage was huge in this series last season as the home team went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS.  The Magic won both home meetings with the 76ers 119-98 as 2-point favorites and 111-106 as 6-point dogs.  The home team is also 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings. 

Orlando is 18-8-1 ATS in its last 27 games vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. NBA Southeast Division foes.  The 76ers are 11-25 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  Philadelphia is 29-50 ATS in its last 79 games off a close home win by 3 points or less.   

Plays against any team (Philadelphia) - playing its 3rd game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 71-35 (67%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Magic Wednesday. 

20* LSU/VCU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on VCU -2.5 

The VCU Rams want some revenge on LSU head coach Will Wade, who succeeded former head coach Shaka Smart in Richmond.  As part of an agreement to allow the third-year LSU coach to escape his contract with VCU to take his current job, these two programs agreed to play a home-and-home in 2019 and 2020. 

“I do think most of the fans were not real please with me,” Wade told the Advocate of his departure from the Rams in 2017. “They’re not real happy about the move, and I’m sure they’ll let their feelings be known when we show up there.” 

Current VCU head coach Mike Rhoades led the Rams to a 25-8 record last season and first-place finish in the Atlantic 10 with a 16-2 record.  Now Rhoads has almost everyone back with four double-digit scorers returning in Marcus Evans (13.6 PPG), De’Riante Jenkins (11.3 PPG), Issac Vann (10.8 PPG) and Marcus Santos-Silva (10.0 PPG, 7.4 RPG).  The Rams ranked top 10 in the nation in defense last season. 

LSU only returns two starters in Skylar Mays (13.4 PPG, 3.3 RPG) and Marion Taylor (6.7 PPG, 3.6 RPG).  They lose their top two scorers in Tremont Waters (15.3 PPG, 5.8 APG) and Naz Reid (13.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG) to the NBA.  They also lose key big man Kavell Bigby-Williams (7.9 PPG, 6.7 RPG).  They got off to a shaky start with an 88-79 home win over Bowling Green as a 13-point favorite.  They committed 16 turnovers and will struggle to take care of the ball against this lockdown VCU defense. 

VCU is 12-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 9-0 ATS after failing to cove the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three years.  Bet VCU Wednesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers +10 

The Philadelphia 76ers are without Al Horford and could be without Ben Simmons due to a shoulder injury yet again tonight.  It’s no wonder they have lost three of their last four coming in with their only win coming by 8 over the Hornets at home as 14-point favorites.  They should not be double-digit favorites over the Cavaliers tonight. 

Cleveland is one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  The Cavaliers are 4-5 SU & 5-2-2 ATS in the first year under John Beilein.  They are coming off two straight upset road wins in blowout fashion over the Wizards by 13 and the Knicks by 21.   

Veterans Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson are both healthy and playing great basketball, while Collin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. are all improved after playing together last year.  And rookie Darius Garland is getting acclimated to playing in the NBA while playing alongside Sexton in the backcourt. 

The Cavaliers are 2-2 SU but 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings at Philadelphia.  They were underdogs in all four and won outright as 13-point dogs and outright as 2-point dogs.  They also covered as 15-point dogs in a 7-point loss and as 3.5-point dogs in a 2-point loss.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Cavaliers Tuesday. 

15* Creighton/Michigan FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Creighton +5.5 

The Creighton Bluejays are going to challenge for a Big East title this year.  They returned four starters in Davion Mintz (9.7 PPG, 3.0 APG), Ty-Shon Alexander (15.7 PPG, 97 3-pointers), Marcus Zegarowski (10.4 PPG, 3.4 APG) and Mictch Ballock (11.1 PPG, 95 3-pointers).  They are one of the most veteran teams in the conference. 

The Michigan Wolverines are in a bit of a rebuild now that John Beilein moved on to coach in the NBA with the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Former Wolverine Juwan Howard got the job and will have his hands full matching Beilein’s success early in his career. 

Howard only inherits two returning starters in Xavier Simpson (7.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG) and Jon Teske (9.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG).  The Wolverines must replace their top three scorers from last year in Ignas Brazdeikis (14.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG), Jordan Poole (12.8 PPG) and Charles Matthews (12.2 PPG, 5.0 RPG). 

Michigan got off to a rough start in their opener, only beating Appalachian State 79-71 as 17-point favorites.  Creighton made easy work of Kennesaw State 81-55 and covered as 25.5-point favorites.  Look for the Bluejays to give the Wolverines a run for their money tonight and likely win this game outright. 

The Bluejays are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Creighton is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Wolverines are 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.  Take Creighton Tuesday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +6 

The New Orleans Pelicans are showing great value as 6-point home underdogs to the Houston Rockets tonight.  The Pelicans are better than their 2-7 record would indicate as they have suffered several close losses this season. 

Indeed, six of the Pelicans’ seven losses have come by 11 points or fewer.  They got on track last time out with a 115-110 road win over Charlotte.  Look for them to give Houston a run for its money tonight and possibly pull off the upset. 

The chemistry for the Rockets hasn’t been great this season with the addition of Russell Westbrook.  They have actually played better without him.  Their defense has taken a huge step back as they are giving up 118.7 points per game this season.  They are only shooting 44% as a team as well. 

The Rockets are 3-7 ATS in hitter last 10 games overall.  Houston is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.  Roll with the Pelicans Monday. 

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Drake +12.5 

The Drake Bulldogs were one of the most underrated teams in the country last season.  They went 24-10 (12-6 MVC) and tied for first in the conference.  They were covering machines and I expect them to continue beating the closing number at a great rate this season. 

The Bulldogs returned three starters and three key reserves this season and are among the favorites to win the MVC again.  They’re off to a good start with an 86-55 win over Kennesaw State as 15-point favorites.  They shot 57.6% as a team and had five players score in double figures, including a couple newcomers in Jonah Jackson (15 points) and Roman Penn (10 points). 

Cincinnati lost head coach Mick Cronin to UCLA and will take a step back this year.  They opened the season with a 56-64 loss at in-state rival Ohio State as 5.5-point dogs.  They will have a hard time getting up for Drake after facing a ranked Ohio State team. 

Drake is 24-8 ATS in all games over the last two seasons, and 36-16-2 ATS in its last 54 games overall.  The Bulldogs are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.  Cincinnati is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  The Bearcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games.  Take Drake Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic -3.5 

The Orlando Magic are undervalued right now after a 3-6 start against a brutal schedule.  They have handled the teams they should handle in Cleveland, New York and Memphis by winning those three games by a combined 53 points. 

However, the Magic have lost to almost all the tough teams they have faced.  They lost on the road to Dallas, OKC, Toronto and Atlanta, and also lost at home to Milwaukee and Denver. 

Indiana is classified as a team they should beat in my book.  That’s especially the case with the injuries the Pacers are dealing with right now.  They are without three starters in Victor Oladipo, Myles Turner and Jeremy Lamb. 

The Magic went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their final three meetings with the Pacers last season.  The Pacers are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 road games. Indiana is 4-13-1 ATS in its last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Magic are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Orlando is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Bet the Magic Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida -5.5 

The Florida Gators are the No. 6 team in the country for good reason.  They returned three starters and added in Virginia Tech transfer Kerry Blackshear Jr. who is a clear NBA talent. 

I faded Florida State against Pitt in their opener and won and I’m fading the Seminoles again today.  They lost six of their top eight scorers from last year and simply aren’t nearly as good as they are getting credit for after going 29-8 last season. 

Florida will come into this game highly motivated for a win after losing five straight to Florida State, including blowout losses each of the last two seasons.  This is their year to get payback because they finally have the better team, and it’s not even close.  Take Florida Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Dallas Mavericks -3 

The Dallas Mavericks are coming off an upset loss to the New York Knicks last night.  They will be in a bad mood and will come out highly motivated tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies.  I think we are getting them at a discount after the upset loss. 

The Grizzlies are just 2-6 this season and have been blown out consistently with all six losses coming by 7 points or more.  The Grizzlies will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after an 86-116 loss in Orlando last night.  They’ll be playing their 5th game in 8 days as well, while the Mavericks will be playing just their 3rd game in 6 days. 

Plays on road favorites (Dallas) - a good team with a +3 to +7 PPG differential against a terrible team with a -7 PPG differential or worse, after a combined score of 205 points or more in four straight games are 32-9 (78%) ATS since 1996.   

The Mavericks are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Dallas is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss.  The Grizzlies are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games when playing on zero days’ rest.  Take the Mavericks Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa +1.5 

The Northern Iowa Panthers nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year.  They caught fire around Valentine’s Day and led Bradley in the MVC title game 35-17 before falling apart. 

Now, Northern Iowa returns six of its top seven scorers and is a clear contender in the MVC this season.  They have six seniors and three juniors and are actually led by sophomore A.J. Green (15.0 PPG, 71 3-pointers), who is their highest rated recruit in program history.  They took a trip to Italy in August to bond even further. 

The Panthers are coming off a very good 58-53 win over Old Dominion as 4.5-point favorites despite shooting just 34.5% from the field.  They held the Monarchs to just 35.6% shooting, and their suffocating defense has been a staple in the Ben Jacobson era.  I like the fact that they have a game under their belts already while this will be the first game of the season for Northern Illinois. 

Northern Illinois loses two of its top three scorers in Levi Bradley (14.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Dante Thorp (13.8 PPG).  That’s a lot of production needing replace from a middling Huskies team that went just 17-17 last year and 8-10 in MAC play.  Roll with Northern Iowa Saturday. 

15* Heat/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami +8 

No team has been more impressive than the Miami Heat in the first two weeks of the season.  The Heat have gone 6-2 SU & 6-1-1 ATS and have been greatly undervalued night in and night out.  I believe they are undervalued yet again here catching 8 points against the Los Angeles Lakers. 

I realize the Heat are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but this is a deep team that can handle it better than most.  And that is factored into the line too much.  The Heat made easy work of the Suns 124-108 last night and didn’t have to play their starters too many minutes.  They’ll won’t be tired at all as they’ll get up to face the Lakers in Staples Center. 

I think the Lakers are being overvalued now after going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They nearly lost in Chicago last time out, needing to erase a 13-point deficit in the fourth quarter to win as 7-point favorites.  This game will go down to the wire as well.  The Lakers may win, but they will not cover. 

Plays against favorites (LA Lakers) - off two or more consecutive road wins, in a game involving two teams that win 75% or more of their games are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1996.  The Lakers are 5-17 ATS off two or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 41-23 ATS as road underdogs over the last three years.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Heat Friday. 

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets -5 

The Philadelphia 76ers lost Ben Simmons to a shoulder injury in a loss to the Jazz on Wednesday.  He’ll miss at least the next two games, and I’m lining up to fade them in the immediate future.  I think we are getting the Nuggets cheap at home here against the 76ers. 

Denver is off to a 5-2 start this season and coming off a 109-89 home win over Miami.  That was back on Tuesday, so the Nuggets are rested and ready to go working on two days’ rest.  They had the best home record in the NBA last season and continue to have a tremendous home-court advantage this year. 

The 76ers got off to a 5-0 start against a soft schedule but have since dropped two straight road games at Phoenix and at Utah.  Now they’ll actually be playing their 4th road game in 7 days, which is a tough spot for any team in the NBA.  It makes it even worse for them now that they don’t have their floor general in Simmons running the show. 

The home team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings winning by 7, 16 and 19 points.  The Nuggets are 22-11 ATS in home games off a win over the last two seasons.  Denver is 19-7 ATS in home games off an ATS win over the last two years.  Take the Nuggets Friday. 

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Weber State +17 

Weber State has the Big Sky’s best player in Jerrick Harding (21.4 PPG).  The Wildcats also return second-leading scorer Cody John (14.8 PPG) and Israel Barnes (6.5 PPG).  They have a tremendous backcourt and return some key reserves in Michal Kozak (4.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG) and Caleb Nero (6.5 PPG). 

Head coach Randy Rahe has been at Weber State for 13 years, and and last year their 18-15 record resulted in the second-most losses since he has been there.  The Wildcats are a perennial contender in the Big Sky and are primed for a bounce-back season.  I think they open 2019-20 undervalued off last year’s results. 

Utah State is ranked 17th in the country and overvalued.  That was evident in the Aggies’ opener as they actually trailed Montana State by a bucket as 21.5-point favorites with just six minutes remaining.  The close on a 17-7 run to secure a shaky 81-73 victory, which is not good for a veteran team like the Aggies that returned four starters.  They will get everyone’s best shot because of their national ranking, including Weber State tonight. 

These teams play every season and almost every game goes right down to the wire.  In fact, each of the last 11 meetings have been decided by 12 points or less.  That makes for an 11-0 system backing Weber State pertaining to this 17-point spread.  Bet Weber State Friday. 

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Ole Miss -21.5 

The Ole Miss Rebels are coming off a very successful season in head coach Kermit Davis’ first year on the job in 2018-10.  He guided the Rebels to a 20-13 record and a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament, making the big dance for the first time since 2015 and earning Davis SEC Coach of the Year honors. 

Now, Ole Miss returns three starters and a tremendous backcourt.  Back is potential SEC Player of the Year candidate Breein Tyree (17.9 PPG) to run the offense at point guard.  Also back is G Devontae Shuler (10.3 PPG) who shot 51.1% on 2-pointers and 40.2% from 3-point range.  G/F Blake Hinson (8.3 PPG) is back after scoring in double figures 10 times as a freshman.  The Rebels also nabbed four-star prospect Austin Crowley, who stayed at home.  Bryce Williams is a big-time athlete who scored 15.3 PPG and shot 44% on 3-pointers at a community college. 

Arkansas State is picked to finish in the bottom 3rd of the Sun Belt this season.  It’s easy to see why as Mike Balado returns just one starter in Marquis Eaton (11.2 PPG).  The Red Wolves lose leading scorer Ty Cockfield (22.4 PPG) and third-leading scorer Grantham Gillard (10.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG).  They are coming off a 13-19 season and back-to-back disappointing campaigns under Balado. 

I would have to say it’s going to be another disappointing season after seeing Arkansas State struggled to put away Arkansas-Monticello 65-49 in a game where there wasn’t even a point spread.  They only led 28-22 before pulling away in the second half. 

Arkansas State is 1-8 ATS in November games over the last three seasons.  The Red Wolves are 1-9 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last two seasons.  Ole Miss is 24-10 ATS in its last 34 games overall.  The Rebels are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.  Roll with Ole Miss Friday. 

20* Celtics/Hornets TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte +7.5 

The Charlotte Hornets were tabbed as the worst team in the NBA by almost everyone coming into the season.  As a result, there has been value on them in the early going, and there’s no question they are better than expected.  The Hornets are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS this season. 

The Hornets come in having won three straight and having covered four straight.  I think they will be out to prove something tonight against their former teammate in Kemba Walker, who chose the Celtics over them.  Terry Rozier came over from the Celtics to replace Walker, and he’ll be playing with a chip on his shoulder as well. 

I love the way the Hornets are playing team basketball and sharing the rock.  Both Devonte Graham (17.3 PPG, 6.7 APG) and Rozier (16.9 PPG, 5.6 APG) have been the catalysts.  P.J. Washington (15.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG) has been one of the best rookies in the NBA and is shooting 46.7% from 3-point range.  Miles Bridges (13.3 PPG) and Dwayne Bacon (11.1 PPG) are both greatly improved over last year, and Cody Zeller (12.8 PPG, 10.8 RPG) provides some veteran leadership and consistent double-doubles. 

The Celtics come in overvalued after having won five straight since a season-opening loss to the 76ers.  But they have been far from dominant with only two of their wins coming by more than 6 points.  They only beat the Knicks 104-102 as 9-point home favorites and the Cavs 119-113 as 6-point road favorites in their last two games.  The Hornets are better than both those teams and should be able to stay within this 7.5-point spread at home. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Hornets won 124-117 as 4-point dogs and 117-112 as 3.5-point dogs in their last two home meetings with the Celtics.  Roll with the Hornets Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -2 

The Utah Jazz come in highly motivated for a win Wednesday night.  They are coming off two straight road losses to the Kings and Clippers.  But now they are back home where they are 3-0 this season and winning by 17.0 points per game.  Salt Lake City is one of the biggest home-court advantages in the entire NBA. 

The Jazz also come in rested and ready to go on two days’ rest since last playing the Clippers on Sunday.  They have owned the 76ers at home throughout the years, going 18-4 SU in the last 22 meetings in Salt Lake City. 

The 76ers are 5-1 and overvalued as a result.  They just lost 109-114 at Phoenix in their last road game.  Yes, they are 3-1 on the road this season, but their three wins came by 6 over Detroit, by 2 over Atlanta and by 1 over Portland.  They needed huge comebacks against both the Hawks and Blazers.  They won’t be so fortunate tonight against the motivated, rested Jazz. 

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Utah) - after having lost two of their last three games, a marginal winning tam (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 63-29 (68.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Jazz are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a loss.  Bet the Jazz Wednesday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh +4.5 

Jeff Capel did a great job in his first season at Pitt.  He took a team that went winless in the ACC and with eight wins overall under Kevin Stallings and got them to 14-19 on the season.  Now, in his second season with the team, Capel and the Panthers should make a big leap forward. 

The Panthers return four starters led by guards Xavier Johnson (15.5 PPG) and Trey McGowens (11.6 PPG).  JC transfer G Ryan Murphy should contribute right away.  They also return Au’Diese Toney (7.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG) and Terrell Brown (5.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG) down low and add in UNC Greensboro transfer Eric Hamilton.  Freshman Justin Champagnie is a swingman who is strong off the dribble and can rebound.  He should bring some much-needed scoring pop to the frontcourt. 

The Florida State Seminoles are coming off an awesome 29-win season.  However, they lost six of their top eight scorers from that team and won’t be starting fast this season.  They don’t return a single double-digit scorer as their top two returnees are Trent Forest (9.3 PPG) and M.J. Walker (7.5 PPG).  It’s going to take some time for the Seminoles to gel with all they lost. 

Plays on home teams (Pittsburgh) - first five games of the season, after closing out last season with eight or more losses in their final 10 games, a team that had a losing record last season are 121-71 (63%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

Pittsburgh beat a very good FSU team 75-62 as identical 4.5-point home underdogs last season.  The Panthers are now 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Pittsburgh.  Roll with Pittsburgh Wednesday. 

15* Michigan State/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on Michigan State -2.5 

The Michigan State Spartans went 32-7 last year and made the Final Four.  I completely agree with them being the No. 1 ranked team in the country this season with all that they return.  They are clearly the best team in college basketball to start the season. 

Head coach Tom Izzo welcomes back Big Ten Player of the Year Cassius Winston at point guard.  He averaged 18.8 points and 7.5 assists per game last year and is the heart and soul of this team.  Also back are key contributors in G Kyle Ahrens (4.7 PPG, 2.5 RPG),  F Aaron Henry (6.1 PPG, 3.8 RPG) and F Xavier Tillman (10.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG).  And the Spartans expect key contributions from freshmen G Mark “Rocket” Watts and F Malik Hall. 

I like fading teams like Duke and Kentucky early in the season because they are filled with one and done players and usually start slow.  That will be the case for Kentucky, which loses four double-digit scorers from last season in P.J. Washington (15.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Tyler Herro (14.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG), Keldon Johnson (13.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG) and Reid Travis (11.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG).  Their only returning starter is PG Ashton Hagans (7.7 PPG, 4.3 RPG). 

Michigan State is 26-10 ATS in its last 36 games overall.  Kentucky is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Spartans have won four of their last six meetings with the Wildcats.  Roll with Michigan State Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Hornets +3.5

Most people tabbed the Charlotte Hornets as the worst team in the NBA coming into the season.  As a result, there has been some value in backing them as the Hornets have opened 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS.  They are certainly better than they were getting credit for coming into the year. 

The Hornets are doing a great job of playing team basketball and sharing the ball.  They have six players averaging at least 12.5 points per game this season.  Terry Rozier has been an adequate replacement for Kemba Walker, PJ Washington is one of the best rookies in the NBA, and Devonte Graham, Cody Zeller, Dwayne Bacon and Miles Bridges have all made big jumps this season.  Plus, they still have Marvin Williams and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to lock it down defensively. 

The Indiana Pacers come in overvalued off three straight wins.  Two of those came at home against the Cavs and Bulls, while the other was a road win at Brooklyn.  The Pacers have some serious injury concerns right now playing without their two best players in Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner, plus Domantas Sabonis is questionable. 

The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven against Eastern Conference opponents.  The home team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Hornets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home meetings with the Pacers.  Take the Hornets Tuesday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -2.5 

The Washington Wizards came into the season tabbed as one of the worst teams in the NBA.  As a result, they were undervalued to start the season and remain undervalued right now.  They are 1-4 SU but 4-1 ATS and could easily have more wins than they do. 

Two of their losses came by a combined 3 points to San Antonio (122-124) as 11.5-point road dogs and Houston (158-159) as 8-point home dogs.  They also covered as 9-point dogs in an 8-point loss at Dallas and upset Oklahoma City by 12 as 8.5-point road dogs.  Their only poor performance came at home against Minnesota in the game after the deflating loss to the Rockets.  Now, I expect the Wizards to be highly motivated to get their second win of the season tonight at home against the Pistons. 

The Pistons have already played seven games compared to five for Washington.  Detroit will be playing its 8th game in 13 days to start the season and its 3rd game in 4 days.  Making matters worse for the Pistons is that they are so banged up right now.  They are without starters Blake Griffin and Reggie Jackson.  Now they are without both Derrick Rose and Tim Frazier, the two backup guards to Jackson.  They are in a world of hurt right now due to these injuries and lack of rest. 

The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series, winning by an average of 11.3 points per game.  The home team is also 11-2 SU in the last 13 meetings.  The Pistons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games playing on one days’ rest.  The Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Pistons.  Take the Wizards Monday. 

20* Jazz/Clippers NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4 

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  They want revenge from a 96-110 loss in Utah on October 30th.  But Kawhi Leonard didn’t play in that game, and he is expected to play tonight.  Look for the Clippers to get their revenge in this one. 

The Clippers are 3-0 at home this season outscoring opponents by 10.4 points per game.  They come in rested and ready to go on two days’ rest having last played on Thursday.  Expect a big effort from them here tonight, especially since they have another two days off after this. 

The Jazz just haven’t been very impressive this season.  They are 4-2, but their four wins have come against the Thunder, Kings, Suns and Clippers (minus Leonard).  They also lost to the Kings and lost to the Lakers on the road, going 1-2 in road games with their only win coming by a single point over the Suns. 

The home team has won three straight and five of the last six meetings in this series.  The Jazz are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Plays on favorites (LA Clippers) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, in a game involving two teams that had marginal winning records (51% to 60%) last season are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Clippers Sunday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets +1 

Wrong team favored here.  The Golden State Warriors are now 2000-1 to win the NBA title.  Let that sink in for a minute.  They are literally the worst team in the NBA right now, and I don’t even think it’s really that close.  They are fade material for the time being. 

No Kevin Durant.  No Klay Thompson.  And now now Stephen Curry.  Plus, Kevon Looney has been out with a hamstring injury, and Draymond Green is battling a back injury.  The Warriors just can’t catch a break.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 127-110 home loss to the San Antonio Spurs last night.  Worse yet, it will be their 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  Their lack of depth will really be felt tonight. 

Meanwhile, the Charlotte Hornets come in on two days’ rest after last playing on Wednesday in a 118-111 road win over the Sacramento Kings.  Most people tabbed the Hornets as the worst team in the NBA coming into the season, but that clearly hasn’t been the case.  And I think they are undervalued for the time being due to the low preseason expectations. 

The Hornets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Charlotte is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Warriors are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Golden State is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games playing on zero days’ rest.  The Warriors are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.  The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Hornets Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Bucks UNDER 225.5 

The Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks are very familiar with one another after playing in a six-game series in the Eastern Conference Finals last season.  They clearly don’t like each other, and this game will be played closer to the vest.  I think it will be a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight as a result. 

Seven of the last eight meetings in this series have seen 222 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  In fact, the Raptors and Bucks have averaged just 206.4 combined points at the end of regulation in those seven meetings.  That’s roughly 19 points less than tonight’s posted total of 225.5, so there is tremendous value with this UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.