15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State -10

The Florida State Seminoles are a big-time sleeper in the ACC this season in my opinion.  They return a ton of talent from last year's squad that went 22-14 overall and 9-9 in the ACC, narrowly missing out on a spot in the NCAA Tournament.  They did reach the NIT semifinals and will be hungry to make the big dance in 2014-15

I like their chances of doing so with four returning starters from that squad.  They are G Devon Bookert (8.5 ppg), C Boris Bojanovsky (5.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.9 bpg), G Aaron Thomas (14.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and G Montay Brandon (7.7 ppg, 4.9 apg).  Thomas averaged 18.2 ppg after he became a starter on February 5th.

The Seminoles have five guys who can play the point.  Their season would really take off if Xavier Rathan-Mayes, who was their top recruit last year but was declared ineligible, can shake off the rust from his year off and take control of the job like the FSU staff envisioned a year ago.

The Manhattan Jaspers won the MAAC Tournament championship and played in the NCAA Tournament last year.  They come into the 2014-15 season overvalued because of that fact and their 25-8 record from last year.  They aren't going to be nearly as good this season.

The Jaspers return just two starters from last year in RaShawn Stores (4.9 ppg, 1.9 apg) and Ashton Pankey (7.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg).  They lose three starters in Georga Beamon (18.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Michael Alvarado (11.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and Rhamel Brown (10.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg).  So, they lose their top three scorers from last year, so obviously they are going to take a step back.

Plays on a favorite (FLORIDA ST) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

Plays on a favorite (FLORIDA ST) - good defensive team from last season - shooting pct defense of

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -6.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They have one of the most talented rosters in the league with the likes of Anthony Davis, Omer Asik, Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon.  This team is a real playoff contender in the West.

The Pelicans have been playing like it in their last four games.  They beat Charlotte 100-91 at home, went on the road and beat the defending champion Spurs 100-99, only lost 111-118 at Cleveland, which is the favorite to win the title this year, and beat the Lakers 109-102 last time out in a game they once led by 23.

While New Orleans already has the pieces to be a contender, Minnesota is in full-blown rebuilding mode.  It is just 2-5 on the season with its only wins coming against Brooklyn and Detroit.  It has really struggled since losing starting point guard Ricky Rubio to an ankle injury.

Indeed, the Timberwolves have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, all without Rubio.  They lost 103-112 at Orlando, 92-102 at Miami, and 101-113 against Houston in Mexico City.  I believe a fourth straight blowout defeat will be the Timberwolves' fate tonight.

Minnesota hasn't been good at either end of the floor.  It is shooting just 43.8% while ranking 20th in the league in offensive efficiency.  It is allowing 102.9 points per game on 48.1% shooting while ranking 19th in defensive efficiency.

Home-court advantage has been huge in recent meetings between these teams.  In fact, the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  New Orleans is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 home games.  Take the Pelicans Friday.

20* College Hoops 2014-15 Season Opener on Colorado -14

The Colorado Buffaloes enter the 2014-15 season as one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They aren't even ranked in the Top 25 even though they should be with what they have coming back from last year's 23-12 squad that made the NCAA Tournament.  They should also be laying more than 14 points to Drexel in the opener.

The Buffaloes did make the tournament last year, but lost to Pittsburgh handily 77-48.  They now have 8-by-10-inch signs taped to every office window, above urinals, in the locker, in the weight room, and taped to TV monitors that say PITTSBURGH 77, COLORADO 48.  They have used it as motivation all offseason and will be ready to go tonight.

The Buffaloes return four starters from last season in G Askia Booker (13.7 ppg, 3.3 apg, 1.3 spg), F Xavier Johnson (12.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg), F Wesley Gordon (5.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.3 bpg) and F Josh Scott (14.1 ppg, 8.4 RPG), who is Colorado's next NBA candidate.  So, they have a ton of experience returning from last year and should be strong right out of the gates because of it.

Head coach Tad Boyle also landed two-time Colorado Mr. Basketball and Gatorade Player of the Year in G Dominique Collier, who dominated the prep level with 23.4 points, 3.5 steals and 3.7 assists per game.  He is CU's most exciting Denver Public Schools signee since Chauncey Billups.

Boyle has implemented a new, quicker-tempo offense designed to spread the court and make it difficult for teams to double-team Scott and the other bigs down low, which Pittsburgh did last March in its rout of the Buffaloes.  This up-tempo offense will also make it more likely that the Buffaloes can cover bigger spreads such as this 14-point number.

Drexel is coming off a 16-14 season from a year ago, finishing 4th in the Colonial Athletic Association with an 8-8 conference record.  While this team has made some noise in year's past dating back to their run to the Final Four a few years back, the outlook on the Dragons simply is not very good in 2014.

They return just two starters from last year.  However, one of those was Major Canady, who has been lost for the season with an ankle injury.  The other is Rodney Williams (5.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  They do return some key reserves in Tavon Allen (11.7 ppg) and Damion Lee (13.0 ppg), but both of those guys are battling injuries to start the season, even though they are listed as probable to play tonight.

The losses were huge this offseason for the Dragons.  They part ways with each of their top two scorers in Chris Fouch (18.3 ppg) and Frantz Massenat (17.5 ppg, 4.5 apg).  They also lose top rebounder Dartaye Ruffin (5.0 ppg, 7.7 rpg).  It's going to be tough sledding for head coach Bruiser Flint in the early going in 2014-15 without these guys.

Colorado went 16-2 at home last season where it scored an average of 77.2 points per game on 46.5% shooting.  It clearly has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country as well.  Drexel went just 8-10 in road games where is scored 67.8 points per game on 41.3% shooting last year.

Plays on a favorite (COLORADO) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 67-30 (69.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on favorites 10 or more points (COLORADO) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 39-14 (73.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Colorado Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Knicks UNDER 193

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Utah Jazz and New York Knicks.  This is an under bettors' dream tonight.  Both teams love to slow it down and play at a snail's pace, which will lead to an easy cash on the UNDER in this one.

New York has really been struggling to learn the Triangle Offense, which is why it is putting up just 91.6 points per game this season on 43.7% shooting.  It has yet to score 100 points in any game this season.  Utah has been a little better offensively, but it is still just scoring 97.6 points per game on the year.  It has failed to top 97 points in any of its last four games.

Because the Knicks are lost offensively, they rank dead last (30th) in the league in pace at 91.2 possessions per game.  Utah also likes to slow it down, ranking 27th in the NBA in pace at 93.2 possessions per game.  Fewer possessions equal fewer points, which is precisely how this game will play out tonight.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Knicks and Jazz, and this was before the Knicks went to this new offense. They have combined for 175, 189 and 173 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 179.0 combined points per game, which is 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 193, showing you that there is value on this UNDER based on the head-to-head history.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Jazz last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Jazz last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Bulls/Raptors TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 195.5

The Chicago Bulls and Toronto Raptors are two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.  The Bulls are 6-2 this season while the Raptors are 7-1.  A big reason for both of their successes is because they each get after it on the defensive end of the court.

The Bulls are holding teams to 98.4 points per game and 42.7% shooting.  The Raptors are limiting foes to 96.4 points per game and 46.2% shooting.  Toronto ranks 7th in the league in defensive efficiency, while Chicago ranks 12th.

These teams have been prone to defensive battles when they have gotten together recently.  They have combined for 186 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings.  They are averaging a combined 177.4 points per game in their last five meetings, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 195.5.  There is clearly a ton of value in this under based on that alone.

Chicago is 13-3 to the UNDER versus poor passing teams that average 20 or less assists over the past two seasons.  The Bulls are 15-3 to the UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more over the last two years.  The Bulls are 8-0 to the UNDER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half of their last game over the last three years.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Bulls last eight games when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 20-7 in Raptors last 27 Thursday games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Rockets/Timberwolves ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 200.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight for many more reasons other than the fact that the defensive intensity will be amplified considering this is a National TV game.

The Houston Rockets haven't missed a beat this season since trading away Chandler Parsons and replacing him with Trevor Ariza.  They got an upgrade on defense and a slight downgrade on offense.  Arizona has been a big reason for their early success en route to a 6-1 record thus far.

The Rockets actually lead the league in defensive efficiency this season, giving up just 92.5 points per 100 possessions.  They haven't allowed an opponent to score 100 points yet, giving up just 90.9 points per game on 40.7% shooting.  That's a big reason why they are 7-0 to the UNDER in all games this year.

Minnesota has quietly been competitive this year, but it suffered a huge blow when starting point guard Ricky Rubio suffered a serious ankle injury a couple games ago that's going to keep him out for a couple of weeks.  It hurts their offense tremendously, but they actually become a better defensive team without Rubio on the floor.

That has been evident in the two games since Rubio got hurt.  Minnesota was tied with Orlando 94-94 at the end of regulation on November 7th for 188 combined points before overtime.  It lost 92-102 at Miami the next night in two games that would have gone UNDER the total if not for overtime.  The Timberwolves shot just 43.0% from the field against the Magic, and 40.2% against the Heat.

Houston has combined for 199 or fewer points with all seven of its opponents this season, while Minnesota has combined for 194 or fewer combined points with four of its six opponents this season when you don't count overtime.  These two facts alone show that there is value in backing the UNDER 200.5 points in this game.

Minnesota is 21-9 to the UNDER as a home underdog over the last three seasons.  The Timberwolves are 16-4 to the UNDER in their last 20 home games after failing to cover the spread in two more more consecutive games coming in.  The Rockets are 9-0 to the UNDER in their last nine games overall.  Houston is 5-0 to the UNDER in its last five road games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams in Minnesota.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Pacers/Heat ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 190

The Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat are hated rivals who have met in the Eastern Conference Finals each of the last two years.  These games are always played closer to the vest, and the defensive intensity will be there because of it.  That's especially the case considering this game will be shown on National TV.

The difference this year is that both teams are without a ton of their scoring from last season.  The Heat are without Lebron James and Ray Allen, while the Pacers are currently playing without Paul George, David West, George Hill and C.J. Watson.

To no surprise, Indiana has really struggled offensively this year.  It is scoring just 93.0 points per game on 42.6% shooting, which includes an overtime game.  It has failed to score more than 98 points in any game this season.

What I like about this play is that both teams play at very slow paces.  Not surprisingly, Indiana ranks 27th in the league in pace at 93.4 possessions per game.  It also ranks 24th in offensive efficiency, scoring just 98.0 points per 100 possessions.

Miami isn't looking to get up and down the floor to put up a ton of shots, either.  It ranks 21st in the league in pace, averaging just 94.3 possessions per game.  It has shot 48.1% from the field this year, which is very impressive, but it's also unsustainable moving forward.

The Pacers and Heat have combined for 191 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 meetings overall.  I certainly do not foresee them getting to 190 tonight given the circumstances for the Pacers, who simply have no offensive firepower with all of their injuries.  They know they have to try to win games by limiting possessions, which is what they will try and do again tonight.

Indiana is 20-4 to the UNDER in road games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Miami is 77-47 to the UNDER in its last 124 games following a game where it made 55% of its shots or better.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Miami's last four games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Lakers +9.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are way overvalued at this point in the season due to their 1-5 start.  That's the reason I backed them against the Hornets in a 107-92 home win on Sunday, and it's the same reason I'm on them again here tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Lakers started 0-5 due to a brutal schedule, not necessarily because of poor play.  They had to face the Rockets, Suns (twice), Clippers and Warriors in their first five games.  Those are four contenders in the West who all have winning records on the year. 

The Lakers also had to play four games in five days, which is one of the toughest situations for any NBA team.  They were doomed from the start, and I really believe this team is better than they are getting credit for because the chips were stacked against them early.

Now, Los Angeles has had ample time to rest this will be just its second game in the past seven days.  It should come into Memphis playing with a ton of confidence after its best performance of the season in that 15-point win over Charlotte.

Memphis, on the other hand, comes into this game way overvalued due to its 6-1 start.  Four of its six wins have come by eight points or less.  It proved to be vulnerable last time out, falling 92-93 at Milwaukee despite being a 4.5-point favorite. 

This team is simply getting too much respect from the books from its fast start against a soft schedule.  Only one of its six wins thus far has come against a team that currently has a winning record, and that is Phoenix (4-3).

Los Angeles was bad last year, yet it played Memphis very tough in all four games.  Only once did it lose by more than five points.  The first three games were all decided by 5 points or less, while the other resulted in a 102-90 win by the Grizzlies late in the season when they were a 12-point favorite and the Lakers had nothing to play for.

The Lakers are 9-1 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5 over the last two seasons.  The Grizzlies are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games after playing a game as a road favorite over the last two years.  Los Angeles is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 vs. poor passing teams that average 20 or fewer assists per game.  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Bucks UNDER 190.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Milwaukee Bucks.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one as these are two teams with two of the best defensive frontcourts in the NBA.

As you know, the Thunder are playing without their two superstars in Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.  However, they are also playing without Andre Roberson and Perry Jones, so they really lack playmakers right now. 

The Thunder are only shooting 44.7% from the floor while averaging 92.0 points per game offensively.  They have been lost on offense, which is why they rank 24th in the league in pace, averaging just 94.0 possessions per game.  They are tied for 28th in offensive efficiency, averaging just 96.7 points per 100 possessions.

Oklahoma City has had to make up for it on the defensive end, where it has been solid.  Opponents are only scoring 98.6 points per game on 43.8% shooting against them.  They have Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams holding down the fort inside.

Milwaukee hasn't been very good offensively, either.  It is averaging just 93.9 points per game on 43.6% shooting.  It ranks 25th in the league in offensive efficiency, averaging just 96.9 points per 100 possessions.

Like the Thunder, they have made up for it on the defensive end.  They are giving up just 94.7 points per game on 43.0% shooting this year.  They have Larry Sanders protecting the paint for them as he is back and healthy this year, which has made a huge difference for their defense.

 The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.  The last three have been very low-scoring as they combined for 186, 171 and 184 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  Expect another ugly, low-scoring battle between these two for a fourth straight meetings tonight.

Milwaukee is 8-0 to the UNDER off a win by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Thunder's last 16 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Thunder's last six road games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four games overall.  The UNDER is 15-5-1 in Bucks last 21 games following a win.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Spurs/Clippers Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are showing excellent value as small home favorites against the San Antonio Spurs Monday night.  They will have a packed house for this one as they take on the defending champs, and I look for them to come away with a win and cover.

The Spurs have looked like anything but champions up to this point.  They are just 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS on the season.  Their two wins came by a combined three points at home over Dallas (101-100) and Atlanta (94-92).  I have faded them three times with success this year, and for many of the same reasons as I will be tonight.

San Antonio may finally be done for.  It's a little too early to tell, but this team has been very slow out of the gate.  A big reason for that is its lack of depth.  Key reserve Patty Mills is out until February, starting center Tiago Spitter is out indefinitely, and sharpshooter Marco Belinelli is expected to miss a fourth straight game tonight with a groin injury.

Los Angeles is 4-2 this season, yet it is a woeful 0-6 ATS.  That means that both of these teams have yet to cover a spread.  However, the value is with the Clippers because the oddsmakers know that the betting public is going to want to back the defending champs rather than the Clippers in this one.  That's why they are giving us such a short, generous price on the home favorites.

While I do believe the Spurs are broken right now, I don't believe the Clippers' slow start is because they aren't a good team.  They simply haven't played up to their potential, which shows how good of a team this really is if they can put together a 4-2 record playing that way.

Blake Griffin showed a lot of heart in their last game Saturday as he battled a sickness and easily could have sat out.  Instead, he led the comeback in the second half after trailing by 9 points to help give the Clippers a 106-102 win over the Blazers.  That performance earned him a lot of respect from his teammates, and these guys should rally around him tonight against the defending champs.

“It was an amazing effort,” guard Chris Paul told reporters. “(Griffin) looked like he was about to die at halftime. He was laid out in there, but it shows how selfless he is, sacrificing for the team.”

The home team has won three of the last four meetings between these teams.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Clippers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Lakers +3.5

Admittedly, the Los Angeles Lakers aren't a very good team.  That's evident by their 0-5 start to the season that has seen them go just 1-3-1 against the spread.  However, this winless start is also the reason the Lakers are showing such great value Sunday.

A closer look at their 0-5 start shows that it has been more due to a brutal schedule than anything.  The Lakers have lost their five games to the Warriors, Rockets, Clippers and Suns, four teams that have a combined 18-5 record on the season.  They even hung tough in home losses to the Clippers (111-118) and Suns (106-112).

Los Angeles is going to be highly motivated for a victory Sunday to put an end to this skid.  It will be well-rested and ready to go since it last played on November 4th.  That means it has had four days in between games to rest and get prepared for the Bobcats.  Expect the Lakers to put fourth their best effort of the season as they finally avoid having to face a Western Conference contender, and now they get to play a weak team from the East.

Sure, the Charlotte Hornets made the playoffs last year and are an improved team since signing Al Jefferson last year, but they have no business being favored on the road here.  Their three wins have all come at home, while they are 0-2 on the road.  Also, they are in a letdown spot here after their double-overtime win over Atlanta on Friday in which Lance Stephenson banked home a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer.

The Lakers have won five of their last six meetings with the Hornets.  Plays on any team (LA LAKERS) - off a home loss against a division rival, on Sunday games are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hornets are 20-39 ATS in their last 59 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The underdog is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings in this series.  Bet the Lakers Sunday.

15* Pelicans/Spurs Western Conference No-Brainer on New Orleans +7

The San Antonio Spurs are the defending champions, but they have looked like anything but that through their first four games of the season.  They have no business being this heavily favored against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight as things aren't going to get better any time soon for the Spurs.

San Antonio has opened 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS this season with its two victories coming at home against Dallas (101-100) and Atlanta (94-92) by a combined three points.  It has also lost on the road at Phoenix (89-94) and at Houston (81-98).

What is troubling the Spurs right now are injuries to several key role players that are going unnoticed.  Backup PG Patty Mills is out until February with a shoulder injury.  Starting center Tiago Splitter is out with a calf injury.  Also, sharp-shooting reserve guard Marco Belinelli is out with a groin injury.  The Spurs just don't have the depth they did last season.

The Pelicans have opened 2-2 with blowout home wins over Orlando (101-84) and Charlotte (100-91), while losing to two of the best teams in the Western Conference in Dallas (104-109) and Memphis (81-93).

I would go as far to say that the Pelicans are one of the Top 5 most talented teams in the NBA and are a sleeper to win the Western Conference.  They are finally healthy for the start of the season, which has been a problem for them over the last couple of seasons.

New Orleans added Omer Asik (10.8 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 1.8 BPG) in the offseason, and he teams with Anthony Davis (23.8 PPG, 13.2 RPG, 4.0 BPG) to provide arguably the best defensive frontcourt tandem in the NBA. 

Tyreke Evans (17.8 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 6.0 APG), Jrue Holiday (14.5 PPG, 6.2 APG), Ryan Anderson (14.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and Eric Gordon (5.8 PPG) are fully capable of carrying the offense on any given night.  I'm telling you, this is an extremely talented roster that the rest of the West needs to watch out for going forward.

Monte Williams is a very profitable 81-58 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of New Orleans.  The Pelicans are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.  The Spurs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents. 

I believe the San Antonio championship hangover continues tonight against a New Orleans team that is deeper and more talented than them right now.  Take the Pelicans Saturday.

15* Blazers/Clippers NBA Saturday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -4

Despite their 3-2 record, the Los Angeles Clippers have not played well at all up to this point.  They are coming off a 104-121 loss at Golden State on Wednesday, and head coach Doc Rivers cannot be pleased with his team's performance.

Look for the Clippers to come out playing with a chip on their shoulder this afternoon against the Blazers.  They have had two days to correct their mistakes in practice since they last played on Wednesday.  I fully expect their best effort of the season in this one.

Portland is in a big letdown spot here after demolishing both Cleveland and Dallas in its last two games.  I believe this team is overvalued as a result, especially since it has played four of its first five games at home.  In their only road game, the Blazers lost to the Kings by a final of 94-103.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, is way undervalued right now due to its poor play early.  In fact, it has failed to cover a single spread this year, going 0-5 ATS.  That's why we're getting the Clippers as only 4-point home favorites in this game, and we'll take advantage of this gift from the books.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Blazers and Clippers.  Indeed, the home team has won six straight meetings between these teams.  The Clippers are 5-0 in their last five home meetings with the Blazers with their last three wins coming by an average of 11.3 points per game.

Plays on any team (LA CLIPPERS) - horrible defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=50% on the season, averaging 48 or less rebounds/game on the season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1996.  The Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss by 10 points or more.  Bet the Clippers Saturday.

20* Cavs/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland -4.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to come out highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have opened the season 1-3 and have not played up to their potential at all yet.  They have also played a tough schedule with three of their first four on the road against the likes of Chicago, Portland and Utah.

Lebron James and Kyrie Irving had a talk after losing at the buzzer to the Jazz on Wednesday.  From all accounts it was a productive talk, and it revolved around not being able to win when you only have six assists in a game as they did against Utah.

I look for both James and Irving to try and get their teammates more involved in this one, and the shooting percentage is going to increase as a result.  After all, the Cavs are only shooting 40.5% from the field this year, which is absurd and won't last.  Not when they have three superstars in James, Irving and Kevin Love.

Look for the Cavaliers to get back on track tonight against a Denver team that has not been impressive at all.  The Nuggets are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS through four games this year.  They are also shooting just 40.6% from the field, and while that will get better as well, they don't appear to be much of a threat to the Cavaliers here.

Denver's only win this season came against Detroit at home, which has just one win itself.  Its three losses have come against the likes of Oklahoma City (91-102) and Sacramento twice.  After falling 105-110 to the Kings on Monday, they came back and fell by a final of 109-131 to the Kings again on Wednesday.  Those three results against teams that aren't very good show that the Nuggets are in trouble.

The Nuggets are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 Friday games.  The Cavaliers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss.  Denver is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Nets UNDER 192

I'm going to side with the UNDER in this game between Atlantic Division rivals Brooklyn and New York Friday night.  I look for defense to shine through in this one as the final combined score of this game stays well below the 192-point total.

New York has played in a bunch of low-scoring games thus far.  It has combined with its opponents for 189 points or fewer in four of its five games this year.  The only exception was the 193-point output against Detroit last time out, but the two teams needed 59 points in the fourth quarter to get to that number.

I predicted that the Knicks would struggle to learn the Triangle Offense early in the season, and that has certainly been the case.  They are only averaging 89.8 points per game on 43.7% shooting.  Players are out of position consistently and still learning how to play with one another within the Triangle.

You can really tell that they are struggling to find good shots offensively because they are eating up the shotclock almost every possession.  In fact, the Knicks rank last in the NBA in pace, averaging just 89.7 possessions per game.  To compare, the No. 1 team in pace is Golden State, which is averaging 103.0 possessions per game.  When a team's possessions are limited, the UNDER is usually a good bet.

Brooklyn has actually played very well on the offensive end this season.  It is shooting 48.3% from the field thus far, but that's going to be tough to keep up moving forward.  Plus, they have played a pretty easy schedule with the likes of the Celtics, Pistons, Thunder and Timberwolves thus far.  Brooklyn ranks right in the middle of the pack in pace (14th), averaging 96.1 possessions per game.

New York is 32-14 to the UNDER in its last 46 games off a game where its opponent grabbed 65 or more rebounds.  Lionel Hollins is 14-3 to the UNDER in home games versus foul-prone teams that are called for 24 or more fouls per game in all games he has coached.  The UNDER is 11-5 in Nets last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 15-7 in the last 22 meetings in this series.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -4

The Toronto Raptors were one of the most underrated teams in the league last year.  They returned almost their entire roster from last season, and this team is a real sleeper in the East in 2014-15.  You can tell that by how impressive they have looked in their 4-1 start.

Toronto has beaten Atlanta (109-102) and Oklahoma City (100-88) at home, as well as Orlando (108-95) and Boston (110-107) on the road.  Its only loss came at Miami by a final of 102-107.  What makes this 4-1 start so impressive is the fact that the Raptors had to play a stretch of 4 games in 5 nights.

Adding to that is the fact that the Raptors have had to play three games without Amir Johnson and one game without Jonas Valanciunas, who are their two starting frontcourt players.  Well, both Johnson and Valanciunas are listed as probable tonight and expected to suit up.

Washington is also 4-1, but its start has been much less impressive.  Its four wins have come against the likes of Orlando, Milwaukee, New York and Indiana.  It lost at Miami 95-107 for its only defeat.  Both Orlando and Milwaukee are young teams rebuilding, New York is lost in the new Triangle Offense, and Indiana is playing without four of its five starters from last year.

Toronto is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Washington.  All four wins came by 8 points or more, while its only loss came in overtime.  The Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Wizards are 2-6 ATS in their last eight visits to Toronto.  The Raptors are 24-7-3 ATS in their last 34 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the Raptors Friday.

20* Spurs/Rockets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Houston -3

Without question, the Houston Rockets are a contender in the Western Conference this season.  I would go as far to say that they have impressed me more than any other team thus far in 2014, and right now, they are the best team in the NBA.

They have opened the season 5-0 while winning their games in strikingly similar fashion.  They beat the Lakers (108-90), Jazz (104-93), Celtics (104-90), 76ers (104-93) and Heat (108-91).  Sure, this 5-0 start hasn't exactly been against the greatest competition, but four of the five wins came on the road.

It's statistically the best start in franchise history.  They've outscored opponents by 71 points in the five wins.  Blowing out the Heat and Jazz on their home floors on the second night of back-to-backs should not be taken lightly.  The Jazz have beaten both the Suns and Cavs at home, while the Heat had been shredding opponents until running into Dwight Howard and company.  They scored just 36 points in the second half.

Houston is not missing Chandler Parsons one bit.  Trevor Ariza is one of the most underrated players in the league as a 3-and-D specialist.  They are actually winning with defense this year because Ariza, Howard and Beverly are three of the better defenders in the league at their positions.  The Beverly-Parsons-Howard trio averaged 103.2 points allowed every 100 possessions last year.  It's down to 90.2 points every 100 possessions with the Beverly-Ariza-Howard trio thus far in 2014-15.

The Spurs may be the defending champs, but thus far, they look like anything but a championship contender.  Sure, they are 2-1 this season, but their two victories came by a combined three points with home wins over Dallas (101-100) and Atlanta (94-92).  They lost at Phoenix in their only road game by a final of 89-94. 

San Antonio will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after narrowly escaping with a victory over the Hawks last night.  It does not have as much depth as last year because key reserve Patty Mills is not expected to return until February due to a shoulder injury.  Marco Belinelli left with a groin injury against the Hawks last night and did not return.  Tiago Splitter returned last night, but aggravated a calf injury.  Both Belinelli and Splitter are questionable to play Thursday.

Houston has owned San Antonio the last season-plus.  It is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with the Spurs.  It has held San Antonio to less than 100 points in four of those five games, while scoring 104-plus in three of the last four.  I look for this series domination to continue Thursday night.

The Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Houston is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. Western Conference foes.  The Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Spurs are 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with the Rockets.  These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing Houston.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers/Wizards UNDER 188.5

This is a rematch from the Eastern Conference Semifinals last year.  These Pacers and Wizards know each other inside and out after playing in the playoffs last year, and based on those six games, I can tell that this number has been set too high tonight.

Oddsmakers set every total between Washington and Indiana at 187 points or fewer in the playoffs last year.  Four of the six games went UNDER the total, and each of the last five games in the series saw 187 or fewer combined points.  From Game 6-back, they combined for 173, 181, 187, 148, 168 and 198 points.

The Pacers clearly aren't the same team as they were last year due to all the injuries they are dealing with.  They are without three starters in Paul George, George Hill and David West, and their offense has struggled as a result.

Indiana has has to play a slow-it-down style this year to try to avoid getting blown out.  It ranks just 27th in the league in pace at 93.1 possessions per game.  It is scoring just 91.2 points per game on 42.7% shooting.  Its lack of offensive firepower with all of these injuries is alarming.

Both Washington and Indiana have been strong defensively this season.  Indiana is allowing just 94.2 points per game on the season as it is nearly as strong defensively as it was a year ago even with these losses.  Washington is yielding 96.2 points per contest on the year.

Dating back further, eight of the last nine meetings in this series have seen 187 or fewer combined points.  Indiana is 34-18 to the UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 36-19 to the UNDER in road games after playing a home game over the last three years.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -1

I've seen enough from Boston this season to know it is an improved team over a year ago.  It opened the season with a blowout 121-105 home victory over Brooklyn before back-to-back road losses to Houston and Dallas, two of the best teams in the West.  It only lost 113-118 at Dallas last time out.

Jeff Green has really stepped up his play this year, averaging 23.0 points per game.  Avery Bradley (17.7), Jared Sullinger (13.7) and Kelly Olynyk (10.7) have all improved this year as well.  Having a healthy Rajon Rondo (8.0 PPG, 11.7 APG, 8.7 RPG) back this year has made a world of difference for this team.

While the Celtics are improved this year, this is more of a play against Toronto than anything.  I actually believe that the Raptors are one of the sleepers in the East, but they are in a very tough spot tonight. 

They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, which is about as tough a situation as you will find in the NBA.  They are already tired even this early in the season, and it will show tonight.  The Raptors are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games playing on 0 days' rest.

Making matters worse for the Raptors is that they could be without both of their starting frontcourt players tonight.  Amir Johnson is out with an ankle injury, while Jonas Valunciunas is questionable after leaving Tuesday's game with a facial contusion.

The home team is 11-2 straight up in the last 13 meetings between these teams.  Boston is 25-9 straight up in its last 34 home meetings with Toronto.  The Raptors are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Boston.  As you can see, home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  Take the Celtics Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -3

Despite losses in each of their last two games and a 1-2 start to the season, I still believe the New Orleans Pelicans are going to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA in 2014-15.  They have lost their last two games against Western Conference powers Dallas and Memphis, but now they get a weak Eastern Conference team at home to get right tonight.

The Pelicans opened with a weak team from the East in Orlando and swiftly beat the Magic 101-84.  The problem for the Pelicans has been on offense, where they are only shooting 39.1% on the season.  Obviously, they aren't going to shoot this badly all season with the talented guys they have in the likes of Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon, Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans.

The biggest reason that the Pelicans are a much better team this year is the addition of Omer Asik at center, who combines with Davis to clean up the glass and alter shots.  Davis is averaging 13.3 boards and Asik is averaging 11.3 rebounds per game.  The Pelicans are 3rd in the league in offensive rebound rate, grabbing 31.8 percent of their misses.  These two will help control the focal point of the Charlotte offense, which is Al Jefferson inside.

I believe the Hornets came into the season way overvalued after making the playoffs last year.  That has shown as they have gone 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS with their only victory coming against Milwaukee by a final of 108-106 in overtime at home.  Their only cover this season came by a half-point last time out at New York in a 93-96 loss.  Simply put, this team doesn't have the talent to match up with New Orleans.

The Pelicans have won six of their last eight meetings with the Bobcats/Hornets franchise.  In fact, Charlotte has only averaged 86.2 points and has topped 100 only once while going 2-8 all-time at New Orleans.

Charlotte is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 versus poor 3-point shooting teams that make 30% or less of their attempts.  The Hornets are 20-38 ATS in non-conference games over the last three seasons.  Charlotte is 32-61 ATS in its last 93 against Southwest division opponents.  The Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. 

The Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Eastern Conference foes.  New Orleans is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven vs. NBA Southeast division opponents.  The Hornets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 trips to New Orleans.  These three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing New Orleans.  Take the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Rockets/Heat Battle of Unbeatens on Miami -1

The Miami Heat are showing tremendous value as a small home favorites over the Houston Rockets this season.  The Heat are on a mission to prove that they don't need Lebron James, and they are off to a good start by going 3-0 with wins over the likes of the Wizards, 76ers and Raptors.

Houston is off to a perfect 4-0 start itself that has it overvalued here.  The Rockets couldn't have faced a much softer schedule to this point as their four wins have come against the likes of the Lakers, Jazz, Celtics and 76ers.  They haven't proven anything yet against that schedule.

This is a very tough spot for the Rockets.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after winning at Philadelphia 104-93 last night.  Plus, they could be caught looking ahead to their game against the defending champion Spurs on Thursday night.

Miami has won eight of its last nine meetings with Houston.  The Heat have won 14 of their last 18 home meetings with the Rockets as well.  Getting them as a small home favorite here in this tough spot for the Rockets is simply a gift from oddsmakers.

The Heat are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rockets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Heat Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Mavericks UNDER 209

I believe the books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks Monday night.  I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER 209 points in a game that will likely see 200 or fewer combined points by game's end.

These are teams that have played contrasting styles thus far.  Dallas ranked 27th in the league in pace, averaging just 93.0 possessions per game.  Boston ranks 2nd in pace, average 102.8 possessions per contest.  Since this one is being played in Dallas, I look for the home team to control the pace, which will lead to a lower-scoring game.

This number has been inflated because both of these teams have averaged over 100 points per game offensively in the early going.  Dallas leads the league in offensive efficiency, but they won't be able to put up points at the rate they have thus far all season.  Boston clearly can't match the 121 points it put up on Brooklyn in the opener with any regularity, and that was evident in a 90-104 loss at Houston last time out.

The two meetings between Boston and Dallas last year saw 183 and 193 combined points.  Not counting overtime, the last 11 meetings between Boston and Dallas have seen 198 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  That makes for a perfect 11-0 system backing the UNDER in this game pertaining to tonight's total set of 209.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Thunder/Nets UNDER 192.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are without their top two scorers from last season in Kevin Durant (32.0 PPG in 2013-14) and Russell Westbrook (21.8 PPG).  Until these two return, the Thunder are going to have trouble scoring points.  They are going to have to rely on their defense, which is still elite without these two.

In its first game without these two, Oklahoma City beat Denver at home by a final of 102-91 for 193 combined points.  Don't expect this team to put up 102 points without their two superstars because that performance was an aberration.  The defense was solid as expected in limiting the Nuggets to just 91 points on 43.7% shooting.

In fact, the defense has been very good all season.  The Thunder combined for 195 points with the Blazers, 183 points with the Clippers, and 193 points with the Nuggets.  They are giving up just 96.7 points per game on 42.5% shooting.  Their offense has been atrocious as they are scoring 93.7 points per game on 43.4% shooting.

Brooklyn bounced back from an awful 105-121 loss at Boston with a 102-90 win at Detroit last time out.  It has been without its best player in Brook Lopez for those two games, but he is expected to return tonight.  Lopez is their top rebounder and shot blocker and will certainly help them improve defensively upon his return.

The UNDER is 7-1 in Thunder's last eight games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Thunder's last four road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Nets last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Without Durant and Westbrook, there's going to be some value in backing the UNDER in OKC games going forward.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +10

I fully expect the Sacramento Kings to be one of the most improved teams in the league this year.  They didn't show that in their opener as they lost by 18 to Golden State and shot just 30.8% from the floor while committing 26 turnovers.

The Kings cleaned up their play last time out and beat Portland 103-94 as a 4.5-point underdog.  They still only shot 42% from the floor, but their defense held the Blazers to just 41% shooting.  They also committed just 10 turnovers as they put an emphasis on taking care of the ball.

This Kings team has plenty of talent to be competitive.  DeMarcus Cousins is one of the most underrated centers in the league as he's a 20 & 10 guy almost every night.  Rudy Gay, who scored 40 points against the Blazers, is still one of the best scorers in the game.

Darren Collison will be taking this game personal as he gets a chance to go against his former team.  He has been dynamite in two games this season.  He had 17 points, eight boards, eight assists and three steals in the win over the Blazers.  He is a solid point guard who, like Cousins, is under-appreciated.

I really have not been impressed with the Clippers in their first two games.  Their sloppy played has carried over from a 2-6 preseason.  Sure, they are 2-0 in the regular season, but they are fortunate to be unbeaten to this point and should not be laying double-digits to the Kings tonight.

The Clippers beat the Thunder 93-90 at home as a 13-point favorite.  The Thunder are without Kevin Durant and shouldn't have been able to hang around, but they did.  The Clippers also beat the Lakers 118-111 as 11.5-point favorites in a game that was tied with under two minutes to go.  The Lakers are arguably the least-talented team in the league this year.

Sacramento has played Los Angeles very tough on the road in recent years.  The Kings have only lost once to the Clippers by more than nine points in the past six meetings.  Sacramento is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last four Sunday games.  The Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Thunder UNDER 194

The Oklahoma City Thunder are without their two best players in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.  Durant, who led the league in scoring last year, is out until at least December with a foot injury.  Westbrook suffered a fractured right hand against the Clippers in their last game and is expected to miss up to six weeks.

This Oklahoma City offense is going to be lost without Durant and Westbrook.  Durant averaged 32.0 points per game last year, while Westbrook put up 21.8 points per game.  The Thunder only had two other players who averaged double figures in Serge Ibaka (15.1) and Reggie Jackson (13.1) last year.  It's worth noting that Jackson and fellow guard Jeremy Lamb are questionable to play in this game as well with injuries.  They have each missed the first two games of the season.

Being lost on offense means that the Thunder will take a lot of time every possession trying to figure out how to get the ball in the basket.  That will lead to poor shots at the end of the shot clock.  Mark Brooks isn't a dumby, and he knows that his team's best chance to win without his two superstars is to limit the possessions and to make every game a defensive battle.  That's what he will do, starting with tonight's game against Denver.

The Thunder were already struggling offensively without Durant, which is no surprise.  They have averaged just 89.5 points per game on 41.8% shooting in their losses to the Blazers and Clippers in their first two games.  It's only going to get worse without their point guard out there in Westbrook.  This may be the worst offensive team in the league now.

Denver didn't exactly light up the scoreboard in its opener.  It beat Detroit 89-79 at home behind a very good effort defensively in allowing the Pistons to shoot just 36.9% from the floor while grabbing 65 rebounds.  The Nuggets figure to get a boost on defense this season with the return of a healthy JaVale McGee, who is one of the top shot-blockers in the league.

Oklahoma City is 16-4 to the UNDER in its last 20 home games off a close loss by 3 points or less.  The Thunder are 16-6 to the UNDER in their last 22 games following a road loss.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Thunder's last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 10-4-2 in Thunder's last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in this series.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -3

The Detroit Pistons are 0-2 right now and undervalued as a result.  They played two tough road games against Western Conference opponents in Denver and Minnesota and were competitive in each.  Now, they head back to Detroit for the start of a four-game home stand against Brooklyn.

The Pistons went 5-2 in the preseason and are clearly going to be improved this season under new head coach Stan Van Gundy.  He has preached defense, and his team has responded in allowing an average of 93 points per game through their first two games against the offensive-minded Nuggets and Timberwolves.

The problem for the Pistons has been their offense, which is only averaging 85 points per game on a woeful 39.4% shooting.  A big contributing factor to that is the fact that they have been without their best scoring big man in Greg Monroe for the first two games as he has served a two-game suspension.  Monroe returns tonight and will give the Pistons a big lift on the offensive end.

Detroit will not only be better offensively because of Monroe's return, but also because it will be up against a Nets team that allowed 121 points and 55.7% shooting in a 16-point loss to the Celtics in their opener.  This Brooklyn team is a mess right now with the loss of Paul Pierce in the offseason and the injury to center Brook Lopez, who will miss this game with a foot injury.

The Pistons have a massive frontcourt featuring Monroe, Andre Drummond and Josh Smith.  Without Lopez, this trio should dominate not only on the offensive end, but on the glass on both ends of the floor.  The Nets are relying on Kevin Garnett, Mason Plumlee, Bojan Bogdanovic and Mirza Teletovic in their frontcourt.  This is a complete mismatch in Detroit's favor.

Detroit won three out of four meetings with Brooklyn last year, including 111-95 and 103-99 victories at home.  The Pistons also won on the road 109-97 on November 24th.  The Pistons scored 103-plus points in all four meetings with the Nets last season, and the Nets are worse off this year than they were last year, while the Pistons are improved.  The Nets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Take the Pistons Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings +6

After an awful performance against the Golden State Warriors in their opener, the betting public wants nothing to do with the Sacramento Kings tonight.  That's why they are showing such great value as 6-point home underdogs to the Portland Trail Blazers.

Look for the Kings to come out very determined after getting embarrassed by the Warriors.  They shot just 30.8% from the field and committed a ridiculous 26 turnovers.  Things couldn't have gone worse in their 18-point loss.  Obviously, they aren't going to play that poorly again tonight.

Meanwhile, the betting public wants everything to do with the Blazers after their 106-89 home win over an Oklahoma City team that was playing without Kevin Durant.  That game didn't become a blowout until the 4th quarter as the Thunder actually had a 77-75 lead until the final period, where the Blazers outscored them 31-12.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Kings and Blazers.  Indeed, the home team is 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Sacramento has one of the most underrated home-court advantages year in and year out, and any time you can get the Kings as this big of a home dog you should usually take advantage, and we will tonight.

Plays against favorites (PORTLAND) - off a home win against a division rival, on Friday nights are 49-18 (73.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Sacramento is 44-25 ATS in its last 69 home games after scoring 85 points or less.  The Blazers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Portland is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.  Sacramento is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a loss.  The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Take the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +9.5

The Philadelphia 76ers lost to Indiana on the road by a final of 91-103 in the opener, failing to cover the 7.5-point spread.  They held a 51-48 lead at halftime, but did not play nearly as well after intermission.  I believe they are showing value here in their second game of the season after that performance as the betting public wants nothing to do with them.

I also believe the betting public is overreacting on the Bucks' solid performance at Charlotte where they lost 106-108 (OT) despite being an 8-point underdog.  They also blew a lead in that game and allowed the Bobcats to come back and win.  The Bucks simply have no business being this heavily favored against anyone, and there's value in the 76ers as a result.

This has been a very closely-contested series over the last couple seasons, which is another reason why I believe this 9.5-point spread is too much.  Indeed, eight of the last nine meetings have been decided by 10 points or fewer, and seven of those have been decided by 9 points or less.

The 76ers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Philadelphia is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on one days' rest.  The 76ers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. 

Simply put, Philadelphia is undervalued after failing to cover against Indiana, while Milwaukee is overvalued after covering against an overrated Charlotte squad.  Roll with the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Mavericks UNDER 201

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one as it's highly likely that neither team surpasses the 100-point barrier.

Utah was one of the worst offensive teams in the league last year.  It lost 93-104 to Houston in its opener and struggled once again offensively.  Those teams only combined for 197 points despite the fact that Houston shot 51.9% from the field and 14-of-27 from 3-point range.

Dallas played a good game at San Antonio but fell 100-101 for 201 combined points.  This game was played at a slow pace as the Spurs shot 52.9% from the field and 14-of-28 from 3-point range, yet still managed just 101 points.

Dallas is not going to be pushing the tempo as much this year without Jose Calderon at the point.  That's especially the case early because they have several new faces, and it's going to take some time to gel offensively.  The defense will be better this year with the arrival of Tyson Chandler, and newcomer Chandler Parsons is a plus-defender as well.

Utah and Dallas played four times last year.  The UNDER went 3-1 in the four meetings with combined scores of 178, 209, 184 and 196 points.  So, they averaged 191.8 combined points per game last year, which is nearly 10 points less than tonight's total, so there's clearly some value with the UNDER based on that alone.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DALLAS) - poor defensive team from last season that allowed a 45.5% shooting percentage or worse are 50-18 (73.5%) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +7

I look for the Detroit Pistons to be one of the most improved teams in the league this year.  I really like the hiring of Stan Van Gundy, who has been one of the most successful head coaches this league has seen.  He owns a .641 winning percentage in eight season with Miami and Orlando.

Van Gundy has plenty of talent to work with this year with Andre Drummond, Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings leading the way.  Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a real scorer and should blossom in his second season.  I also like the additions of D.J. Augustin and Caron Butler as role players who will fit in nicely. 

The Pistons thrived in the preseason, going 5-2, and I look for them to carry over that success to the regular season opener.  The Nuggets, meanwhile, went just 2-6 in the preseason and are out of whack.  They have several players returning from injury, and Brian Shaw just has no chemistry with this team coming into the year.

Three key players for the Nuggets (Danilo Gallinari, J.J. Hickson, Nate Robinson) all underwent surgery to repair torn ACLs.  Gallinari never saw the floor last year, while JaVale McGee played in just five games.  I believe it's going to take a while for these guys to gel and actually feel comfortable about returning from such serious injuries on the court.

Van Gundy is 357-296 ATS in all games as a head coach.  Van Gundy is 81-55 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5 in all games he has coached.  The Pistons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Detroit is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Western Conference foes. Take the Pistons Wednesday.

20* Bulls/Knicks ESPN National TV KNOCKOUT on Chicago -4

The Chicago Bulls are going to be the most improved team in the league this year.  It starts with Game 1 tonight against the New York Knicks.  I fully expect the Bulls to go into Madison Square Garden and come away with a blowout victory.

Derrick Rose returns after playing in just 49 of 230 games over the past three seasons.  The Bulls also added Pau Gasol, European start Nikola Mirotic and college super scorer Doug McDermott to their roster this offseason.  They will now be one of the best offensive teams in the league while once again battling to be the top defense in the NBA as well.

The Knicks are in full-on rebuilding mode after missing the playoffs last year with a 37-45 record.  The Phil Jackson hire will help them long-term, but in the intermediate this simply is not a very good team even with Carmelo Anthony.  They lost Tyson Chandler, who was the only player on this team aside from Iman Shumpert who is a plus-defender.

New York is really going to struggle defensively this year without Chandler, but the bigger concern early is going to be the offense.  Jackson has hired Derek Fisher to run his patented Triangle Offense.  This system takes some time to get used to, and the Knicks will be all out of sorts in the opener, just as they were in the preseason when they went 3-4.

Chicago has gone 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in its last nine meetings with New York.  The Knicks are 3-13 ATS in home games in the first half of the season dating back to last year.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Southeast Division ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -4

The Miami Heat will be out to prove that they do not need Lebron James to compete for an Eastern Conference Title.  They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder all season, starting with their opener against the Washington Wizards Wednesday.

The Heat signed Chris Bosh to a max deal to be their go-to guy this season.  Go back and check his stats in Toronto to find out what he is capable of as the lead guy, because he is still in his prime and will put up huge numbers this year. 

Dwyane Wade wants to play in all 82 games to prove that he still has plenty left in the tank, and that he can be a lead guy as well.  I also love the addition of Luol Deng, who is a real team player who can contribute a lot on both end of the floor.

Washington was one of the biggest surprise teams in the league last year as it came out of nowhere and won a playoff series for the first time since 2004-05.   Now, I believe the Wizards are way overvalued heading into 2014-15 because of it, especially due to key losses and injuries.

Trevor Ariza is one of the most underrated players in the league.  He defends the opposing team's best player, and he also knocked down a ton of 3's for the Wizards last season.  Ariza is now a key cog in Houston, replacing the departed Chandler Parsons in the Rockets' starting lineup.

Washington is expected to be without starting shooting guard Bradley Beal, starting forward Nene, and top reserve Martell Webster for the opener.  In Nene, Beal and Ariza, the Wizards will be down three starters from last year.  They simply aren't going to live up to the hype in the opener due to all of these injuries and personnel losses.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Washington and Miami.  The home team is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Miami has won each of its last four home meetings with Washington.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -4.5

The Toronto Raptors were one of the most underrated teams in the league last year.  They won a franchise-record 48 games and the Atlantic Division title.  They should be just as good if not better in 2014-15, and I believe they are undervalued here as only a 4.5-point favorite over the Atlanta Hawks.

Kyle Lowry signed a new $48 million deal this offseason after averaging 17.9 points, 7.4 assists and 4.7 rebounds last year.  DeMar DeRozan was an All-Start.  Toronto kept most of its roster in tact, but it also added Lou Williams and James Johnson to the team.  They'll serve as great role players as Williams is instant offense off the bench, while Johnson can do a little bit of everything.

Atlanta did make its seventh straight postseason appearance last year, which is the longest active streak in the Eastern Conference.    However, they barely snuck in, and I don't believe they did enough this offseason to improve their team.  All they did was get John Salmons and Thobo Sefolosha, who are two players far past their primes who won't contribute much.

The Raptors looked as good as anyone in the preseason as they put together a league-best 6-1 record.  I look for them to carry over that success in the regular season.  I truly believe that they are the most underrated team in the Eastern Conference this year and fully capable of giving any team a run for their money.

The home team went a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in four meetings between the Hawks and Raptors last season with the home team winning by 5 or more points in all four games.  I look for Toronto to make it five straight wins and covers for the home team in this series.  Roll with the Raptors Wednesday.

20* Mavericks/Spurs NBA Season Opener on Dallas +4

I look for the Dallas Mavericks to spoil the ring ceremony of the San Antonio Spurs tonight and to win this opener outright.  I'll be taking the points for some added insurance.

Dallas wants revenge after losing in seven games to the Spurs in the opening round of the playoffs last year.  They played the Spurs tougher than anyone in the playoffs, and I believe they are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA heading into 2014-15.

I absolutely love what Dallas did in the offseason.  It brought back Tyson Chandler, who was the defensive force who helped them win the NBA Title a few years back.  It also signed Chandler Parsons from the Rockets, who is one of the most efficient players in the NBA who can do a little bit of everything.  Jameers Nelson, Devin Harris & Raymond Felton will all help combine to replace Jose Calderon at the point.

I don't put a ton of stock into the preseason, but it's worth noting that the Spurs went 2-5 in the preseason.  They even lost overseas to Alba Berlin in their preseason opener.  I look for them to start the regular season slow as well as they just won't have that same fire they did last year after losing the NBA Finals the year before.

One big development is that Kawhi Leonard, the 2014 NBA Finals MVP, won't be suiting up tonight.  He averaged 23.7 points and 9.3 rebounds while shooting 68.6 percent in the final three games against the Heat.  He is dealing with an eye infection that has kept him out for over two weeks.  Leonard is worth the most wins above replacement of all the Spurs this season.

Leonard isn't the only Spur who is banged up right now.  They will also be without starting center Tiago Splitter and key bench player Patty Mills.  Splitter has a calf injury and will be out for this game and possibly a few more, while Mills isn't expected to return until February due to a torn rotator cuff.

Dallas is 16-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The Mavericks are 20-8 ATS as a road underdog over the last two years.  Dallas is a sensational 50-20 ATS in its last 70 road games overall.  Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on Miami +5.5

While the Miami Heat have been atrocious the past two games, I believe this line is inflated because of it.  With their season at stake, I look for the Heat to fight until the end tonight and to stay within 5.5 points of the Spurs, possibly pulling off the upset.

This is a veteran Heat team that is prepared better than any other team in the league for this win-or-go-home situation.  Look for Lebron James and company to put together a game plan that will give them an excellent chance to win this Game 5 and send the series back to Miami.

Miami is 9-0 ATS in road games after a game with 35 or less rebounds over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 24-9 ATS in road games after a blowout loss by 20 points or more since 1996.  The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.  The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Sunday.

20* Spurs/Heat Game 4 No-Brainer on San Antonio +5.5

I certainly understand the fact that the Heat have not lost back-to-back games in the playoffs in any of the past two years.  However, they haven't played a team as good as this 2013-14 San Antonio squad.  The Spurs are even better than they were a year ago, and they have made some nice adjustments from the way they played the Heat in the Finals last year.

Last year, the Spurs would go under screens and dare Lebron James and Dwyane Wade to shoot the outside shot.  Now, they are mixing it up, switching screens about half the time to give those two stars a different look, and it's working.  Their transition defense has also been much better than it was a year ago.

San Antonio comes into this game knowing that they can essentially win the series with a victory tonight, and it will not be lacking any motivation because of it.  This team is gleaming with confidence after a marvelous shooting display in Game 3, and while I do not expect that kind of shooting performance again, I believe they will be good enough to stay within 5.5 points, likely pulling off the upset.

Miami is 4-12 ATS in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season.  San Antonio is 41-22 ATS after scoring 110 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Spurs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on one days' rest.  San Antonio is 53-25-1 ATS in its last 79 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the Spurs in Game 4 Thursday.

25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on San Antonio Spurs +4.5

The San Antonio Spurs represent my strongest play of the entire NBA Finals tonight as a 4.5-point road underdog in Game 3 against the Miami Heat.  I look for them to not only cover, but to win this game outright to re-gain home-court advantage in the series.

The Spurs have been the best road team in the league this season, going 33-16 away from home while outscoring opponents by an average of 5.2 points per game.  This veteran bunch will not be intimidated one bit by going into Miami to try and come away with a victory in Game 3.

The Heat have been unbelievable when coming off a loss this season, but not so hot when coming off a win.  They are 2-5 ATS in their last seven playoff games following a S.U. win.  Miami is also 8-18 ATS in its last 26 home games off a road win, and 14-26 ATS in its last 40 home games after playing its last game on the road.

San Antonio is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games following a home loss.  The Spurs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots.  San Antonio is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games playing on one days' rest.  The Spurs are 52-25-1 ATS in their last 78 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 2 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 199

After the Heat and Spurs went OVER in Game 1, I believe there is some value to backing the UNDER in Game 2.  These teams have had two days off since Game 1 to make adjustments, which I strong believe will favor the defenses.

Miami is  9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in road games after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Heat last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games are 26-11 (70.3%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio -4

The San Antonio Spurs fought hard to get back to this position.  They won the league's best record during the regular season to get home-court advantage throughout, then made their way through the Western Conference, which is arguably as strong as it's ever been.

Miami kind of went through the motions during the regular season, allowing the Pacers to take the No. 1 seed without even earning it.  The Heat have then faced a very weak Eastern Conference to get here.  They won't be ready for the challenge that's coming in Game 1 like the Spurs will be.

The Spurs are 41-10 at home this season.  They have won eight straight playoff home games all by 6 points or more.  In fact, their last seven playoff home games have resulted in victories by 17-plus points each.  They have won 15 of their last 19 home meetings with the Heat.

 San Antonio is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games.  The Spurs are 51-24-1 ATS in their last 76 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the Spurs in Game 1 Thursday.

15* Spurs/Thunder Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio +4

The San Antonio Spurs remember when they went up 2-0 only to lose the next four games to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals in 2012.  They have been playing with extra motivation this series because of it, and while the home team has won every game thus far, I look for that to change in Game 6 tonight.

The Spurs know what they need to do to beat the Thunder after running their game plan to perfection in a blowout victory in Game 5.  They have been stagnant on offense in their two road games, but they got back to moving the ball in Game 5.  Look for them to really put an emphasis on ball movement in Game 6, because when they move it like they are supposed to, they are virtually unbeatable.

Plays against home teams (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off a road loss by 10 points or more are 72-39 (64.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Spurs are 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season.  San Antonio is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots this season.  The Spurs are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Take the Spurs Saturday.

15* Pacers/Heat Game 6 No-Brainer on Indiana +7.5

The Indiana Pacers have won a game in Miami in each of the last two postseasons.  After losing the first two games in Miami this series, I look for the Pacers to give the Heat a run for their money in Game 6 to try and extend this series and send it back to Indiana for a Game 7.

This has been a much closer series than most realize.  The Pacers won Game 1, were tied with just over a minute remaining in Game 2, and blew a 15-point lead in Miami in Game 3.  I like the fight this team showed in Game 5, and I believe it will carry over into Game 6 with their season at stake. 

After all, the Pacers have played their best this postseason when their back has been against the wall.  They won Game 6 in Atlanta when trailing 3-2, and finished the Hawks off in Game 7.  After falling behind 0-1 to Washington, they won three straight and eventually won in six games.  They are still a solid 5-3 on the road in these playoffs.

Miami is 13-26 ATS in home games after playing a road game over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 1-8 ATS after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots this season.  Indiana is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games.  Take the Pacers in Game 6 Friday.

15* Thunder/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on San Antonio -5

The San Antonio Spurs head back home for Game 5 of this series with the Oklahoma City Thunder.  This is a very resilient Spurs bunch that knows the importance of this game and does not want a repeat of two years ago when they blew a 2-0 lead to the Thunder and lost 2-4.

The Spurs are 40-10 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 9.9 points per game.  The home team has won all four meetings in this series thus far.  The Spurs won their first two home games by a combined 52 points.

I look for Greg Popovich to make the necessary adjustments to put his team in a much better position to win tonight.  The ball will move quickly on offense, and also look for Manu Ginobli to play more with the starters because he can break down a defense.

The Spurs are 70-46 ATS in their last 116 home playoff games.  San Antonio is 6-0 ATS in its last six home playoff games this postseason.  The Spurs are 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Take the Spurs in Game 5 Thursday.

15* Heat/Pacers Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +1.5

The Indiana Pacers will have some fight left in them as they head back home for Game 5.  This easily could be a 2-2 series right now, and knowing that they won in Miami in the playoffs each of the last two seasons, they have to have some hope that they can come back and win the series.

"I think anytime you lose three in a row in the playoffs, it shakes your confidence some," coach Frank Vogel said. "But we can't worry about that. All we've got to worry about is coming back and winning Game 5 and giving us an opportunity to come down here and win one game. We've won one game in each playoff series that we've played here the last two years. We should have confidence that we can do that."

The Pacers won Game 1 and were tied with Miami in the closing minutes in Game 2, but faltered down the stretch.  They also blew a 15-point lead at Miami in Game 3, so it's clear that they have proven they can play with this team.  They just need a few more things to go their way tonight, and I believe they will.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 69-37 (65.1%) ATS since 1996.  Home-court advantage has been huge when these teams get together as the home team has gone 11-1 (92%) straight up in the last 12 meetings.  Take the Pacers in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* Spurs/Thunder Game 4 No-Brainer on San Antonio +2.5

The San Antonio Spurs played their worst game of the playoffs in Game 3, yet they still only lost by single-digits.  They relaxed a little after winning the first two games by a combined 56 points, and they ended up shooting just 39.6% from the floor in that 97-106 Game 3 loss.

Everyone wants to be quick to credit the return of Serge Ibaka as the reason the Thunder won, but I believe it was more to do with self-inflicted wounds than anything.  Tony Parker has his worst game of the series, and when he doesn't have it going, the team tends to struggle offensively.

I look for the Spurs to come back highly motivated tonight realizing that they need to take back control of this series after what happened in the 2012 conference finals.  They blew a 2-0 lead and lost the next four games to the Thunder that year, and they will be playing with a sense of urgency tonight because of it.

San Antonio is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on one days' rest.  San Antonio is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Roll with the Spurs in Game 4 Tuesday.

20* Pacers/Heat Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +6.5

It's now or never for the Indiana Pacers, who cannot afford to lose this Game 4 against the Miami Heat if they want to win this series.  I look for them to lay it all on the line to get the victory, and for it to be enough to at least stay within this 6.5-point spread.

Sure, Indiana blew a golden opportunity in Game 3 after leading most of the way in that contest.  Miami simply got hot in the 4th quarter, and Ray Allen could not miss.  The Heat have shot at least 50% in every game thus far, so they have clearly had a lot right go for them.

That is saying something considering the Pacers are the top defensive team in the league this season.  Indeed, they rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and I fully expect their best effort on that end of the floor in this one.

The Pacers are 5-2 straight up on the road in the playoffs, and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Indiana is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss.  The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Bet Indiana in Game 4 Monday.

20* Spurs/Thunder Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 208.5

The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder played in a very high-scoring Game 1 that saw 227 combined points.  That final tally has inflated the total in both Game 2 and Game 3.  I took advantage by backing the UNDER in Game 2, and I'll take advantage again today in Game 3.

The fact of the matter is that these are two of the best defensive teams in the league.  Indeed, the Spurs rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, yielding just 100.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Thunder rank 5th at 101.0 points per 100 possessions.

This has been a low-scoring series between these familiar foes, who met in the Western Conference Finals in 2012 as well.  In fact, eight of the last 11 meetings have seen 206 or fewer combined points.

The UNDER is 10-4 in Spurs last 14 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  The UNDER is 12-5 in Spurs last 17 games following an ATS win.    The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Oklahoma City. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a blowout loss by 20 points or more are 54-21 (72%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

25* Eastern Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers +7

The Indiana Pacers represent my strongest play in the Eastern Conference Finals in Game 3 of this series.  They are catching too many points against the Miami Heat in this one, and I'll take advantage by taking all the points I can get.

Paul George is expected to play Saturday, which is a huge bonus for the Pacers because he is by far the most important player on the team.  He is averaging 21.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists in the playoffs, and a team-high 41.3 minutes per game to boot.

As I've stated before, the Pacers match up really well with the Heat because George and Lance Stephenson can guard Lebron James and Dwyane Wade as well as any duo in the league.  They ranks 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, yielding just 96.7 points per 100 possessions.  The Heat rank 11th in that same category at 102.9 points per 100 possessions.

Indiana has won a game in Miami in each of the last two postseasons in 2012 and 2013.  It has played its best basketball away from home in the postseason, going 5-1 through the first two rounds in road games.  It was an underdog in four of those contests, all of which it won outright.

The Pacers are 12-3 ATS in road games revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  Miami is 7-18 ATS in home games off a road win over the last two seasons.  Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  The Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Indiana is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games when playing on three or more days of rest.  Bet the Pacers Saturday.

25* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR Thunder/Spurs on UNDER 211.5

After an extremely high-scoring Game 1 with 227 combined points in a 122-105 San Antonio victory, I look for the defense to be much sharper tonight in Game 2 of this series.  That was the case in the Miami/Indiana series, and I expect the same thing to happen in this one as well.

After all, that Game 1 total was more of an aberration than anything, especially when you look at how these teams have fared against each other recently.  Seven of the last 10 meetings between the Spurs and Thunder have seen 206 or fewer combined points.

These were two of the best defensive teams in the league during the regular season.  Indeed, the Spurs ranked 4th in defensive efficiency, yielding just 100.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Thunder ranked 5th, allowing 101.0 points per 100 possessions.

The UNDER is 14-6 in Spurs last 20 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Thunder's last five games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Wednesday.

15* Heat/Pacers Game 2 No-Doubt Rout on Indiana +3

I'm taking the Indiana Pacers for many of the same reasons I backed them in Game 1.  But most importantly, I'm backing them because they know how important retaining home-court advantage is, and that's why they will not have a letdown after throttling the Heat 107-96 in Game 1.

Sure, I realize the fact that Miami has not lost back-to-back games in the playoffs over the past two seasons, but you also have to realize that nobody other than perhaps San Antonio has played the Heat as tough as the Pacers in the postseason.  They aren't afraid of Miami because they know they can beat them.

Home-court advantage has been huge between these teams.  In fact, the home team has now won eight straight meetings in this series.  Indiana has gone 39-10 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 8.7 points per game.  Miami is just 25-21 on the road this year.

Indiana is the best defensive team in the league.  It ranked 1st in defensive efficiency during the regular season, yielding just 96.7 points per 100 possessions.  To compare, Miami ranked 11th in the same category, giving up 102.9 points per 100 possessions.  Paul George and Lance Stephenson can guard Lebron James and Dwyane Wade better than any tandem in the league.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 37-6 (86%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The home team is 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Pacers Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Spurs Game 1 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 209

I look for a low-scoring affair between these familiar foes in Game 1 of this series Monday.  This is a rematch from the 2012 Western Conference Finals in which the Thunder won 4-2.  The familiarity will make points hard to come by in the opener tonight.

These were two of the best defensive teams in the league during the regular season.  Indeed, the Spurs ranked 4th in defensive efficiency, giving up 100.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Thunder ranked 5th in defensive efficiency, yielding 101.0 points per 100 possessions.

One big key here is that Serge Ibaka is expected to be out for the remainder of the regular season.  While he is a solid defender, it will hurt the Thunder a lot more on the other end of the floor.  Ibaka averaged 15.1 points per game in the regular season and can make an 18-foot jumper with consistency.  That helps spread the floor, and the Thunder do not have another forward/center that can make that shot.  They will be in trouble offensively because of it.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 56-29 (65.9%) since 1996.  Seven of the last nine meetings in this series have seen 206 or fewer combined points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Heat/Pacers Game 1 No-Brainer on Indiana +3

The Indiana Pacers worked hard during the regular season to earn the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.  They did so looking ahead to a potential Eastern Conference Finals rematch with the Miami Heat.  Starting with Game 1, I look for them to put that home court to use.

Home-court advantage has been huge when these teams have gotten together recently.  Indeed, the home team won all four meetings during the regular season.  Dating back to the playoffs last year, the home team has now won eight straight meetings in this series.

Indiana has gone 38-10 at home this season.  It is outscoring opponents by an average of 8.7 points per game at home.  Miami is a mediocre 25-20 on the road this year, clearly proving to be beatable away from home.

The Pacers were the best team in the league defensively this season.  They ranked first in defensive efficiency, giving up just 96.7 points per 100 possessions.  To compare, Miami ranked 11th in defensive efficiency, giving up 102.9 points per 100 possessions.

When you can play defense, you give yourself a chance to win in the playoffs.  No team is better suited to stop Lebron James and Dwyane Wade than the Pacers.  Paul George can contain James, while Lance Stephenson does an excellent job on Wade.

The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on two days' rest.  I look for Indiana to protect its home court in Game 1 as the home team wins a 9th straight meeting between these teams.  Bet the Pacers in Game 1 Sunday.

20* Thunder/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 212

This series has gotten much more low-scoring as it has gone on.  Game 4 and Game 5 have been the two lowest-scoring games of the series.  The Thunder and Clippers combined for 200 points in Game 4 and 209 points in Game 5.

As teams become more familiar with one another over the course of a series, it favors the defenses.  Both of these teams know what the other is trying to do now.  OKC wants to isolate Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, while LAC wants to run pick and roll with Chris Paul.

The defenses have clearly made the adjustments in these past two games based off of shooting percentages.  The Clippers shot 41.9% in Game 4 and 43.2% in Game 5.  The Thunder shot 44% in Game 4 and 42.9% in Game 5.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a road loss vs opponent against opponent off a close home win by 3 points or less are 36-13 (73.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* NBA Western Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers +8

It took three games to figure it out, but the Portland Trail Blazers now have an answer for Tony Parker.  After letting him go wild in the first three games of this series, they held him to just 14 points, one assist and three turnovers in a 103-92 Game 4 victory.

Parker had been averaging 26 points and more than eight assists in the first three games of the series.  The difference was Nicolas Batum, who was charged with guarding Parker the entire game.  The fellow Frenchman's length gave Parker fits and allow the Blazers to avoid the sweep.

I believe Portland legitimately has a chance to win this Game 5 outright tonight now that it has found the right defense for Parker.  The Spurs are overvalued due to four straight double-digit victories prior to that Game 4 loss.  They have no business being an 8-point favorite here against a Blazers team fighting for their playoff lives.

The Blazers are 11-1 ATS in road games after two straight games where they had five or less steals this season.  The Spurs are 5-13 ATS in home games off two straight games where they had 10 or less offensive rebounds this season.  San Antonio is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Thunder Game 5 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have all of the momentum heading into Game 5.  They just erased a 16-point deficit with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter to win Game 4 by a final of 101-99.  After looking dead to the water in this series, they now have new life and are essentially free rolling.

All of the pressure is back on Oklahoma City, which got 67 combined points from Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and Game 4.  The Thunder also held the Clippers to 41.9% shooting in that contest, and they STILL could not win.  This team has to be baffled right now and feeling the pressure.

The Clippers clearly have the best coach in this series, and it's not even close.  I like what he did in putting the smaller Chris Paul on Durant, double-teaming him and forcing him to shoot outside jump shots.  I look for them to use that strategy again in Game 5, and Durant will either have to force shots or pass the ball.  Either way, that works in Los Angeles' favor.  Oklahoma City doesn't have the role players that can beat the Clippers.

Doc Rivers is 27-8 ATS in road games vs. excellent free throw shooting teams that make 80% or more of their shots in all games he has coached.  Los Angeles is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 meetings in Oklahoma City.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Clippers in Game 5 Tuesday.

15* Heat/Nets Game 4 No-Brainer on Brooklyn +3

The Brooklyn Nets proved that they weren't going to go away quietly by absolutely dominating in Game 3.  They crushed the Miami Heat 104-90 while shooting 52.8% from the field and outrebounding the Heat 50-30 for the game.

I look for them to come back with a ton of confidence in Game 4 off such a brilliant effort in a must-win situation.  This team obviously has the belief now that it can beat the Heat in the playoffs after sweeping them 4-0 during the regular season.

Brooklyn did play well all season at home, going 31-14 inside of the Barclays Center.  Miami has been beatable on the road, posting a 24-20 record away from home.  So, it's no surprise that the home team has won each of the first three meetings in this series.

The Nets are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Brooklyn is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  The Nets are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games.  The Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five meetings in Brooklyn.  Bet the Nets Monday.

20* Thunder/Clippers Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -5

The Los Angeles Clippers will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 4 to even this series with the Oklahoma City Thunder.  This is essentially a must-win situation for the Clippers, who cannot afford to fall behind 1-3 if they want to win this series.

Essentially nothing went right for the Clippers in Game 3, yet they still only lost by six points by a final of 112-118.  They were out-shot 55.7% to 45.2% and outrebounded 42-52.  Usually, those two numbers would lead to a blowout for the other team. 

So, considering they can't play any worse, I like their chances of bouncing back with a blowout victory in Game 4.  The Clippers are 37-9 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 10.6 points per game.

Los Angeles is 16-3 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent as a favorite this season.  The Clippers are 14-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season. Los Angeles is 20-9 ATS off a loss this season.  Bet the Clippers in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Nets/Heat Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 189.5

This entire season series has been pretty low scoring between the Brookyn Nets and Miami Heat.  I look for that trend to continue in Game 3 tonight now that these teams are very familiar with each other as this will be their 7th meeting of the season.

I look for Game 3 to take on a similar tone to Game 2, which was defense, defense, defense.  Miami beat Brooklyn 94-82 for 176 combined points.  In fact, each of the last five meetings this season have seen 193 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.

Brooklyn's only chance to beat Miami is to slow it down and play at a snail's pace.  That's what it had success doing in the regular season, and playing at home in Game 3, I look for it to control the tempo in this one.  The Nets rank 25th in the league in pace at 93.7 possessions per game.  Miami ranks 27th in pace at 93.3 possessions per game.

Erik Spoelstra is 33-13 to the UNDER in road games after covering five or six of their last seven against the spread as the coach of Miami.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Heat's last 16 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Nets last six Conference Semifinals games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Pacers/Wizards Game 3 No-Brainer on Indiana +4.5

Oddsmakers have set the line in this game like this is an evenly-matched series.  Indiana was only a 4 to 4.5-point favorite in Games 1 and 2 at home. Now they're a 4.5-point dog on the road in Game 3.  I believe the Pacers are the better team in this series, and I'll back them in Game 3 because of it.

Roy Hibbert came alive with 28 points and nine rebounds in a Game 2 victory.  Paul George had taken him out on a fishing boat the day prior, and it really showed that he and the team had his back.  Now, with Hibbert back on board, this is going to be a scary team the rest of the way.

Indiana has played its best when it has needed to on the road thus far in the playoffs.  In fact, it took two out of three road games from Atlanta last series, which was a place that the Pacers simply could not win for years.  I believe it gets Game 3 on the road tonight to regain home-court advantage.

The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Randy Wittman is 28-52 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less in all games he has coached.  Bet the Pacers in Game 3 Friday.

20* Nets/Heat Side & Total Parlay on Brooklyn +8/UNDER 192

These plays go hand in hand.  I look for Brooklyn to slow the pace of the game down to make it more to its liking, giving it a better chance to win this all-important Game 2.

Reasons for Brooklyn - The Nets rested their starters in the 4th quarter last game because they were getting blown out.  It was much-needed rest for a team that was coming off a grueling 7-game series against Toronto.  They simply did not come to play in Game 1, while Miami did.

I look for those roles to be reversed tonight.  The Nets will come out with a fire knowing that they cannot afford to fall behind 0-2 if they want to win this series.  This is essentially a must-win game for them, while the Heat could relax a little like they tend to do off a blowout win.

Brooklyn is 10-2 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more this season.  Miami is 12-22 ATS after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games this year.  The Nets are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a double-digit loss.

Reasons for the Under - There was no defense played in the second half of Game 1 because the Nets were getting blown out and resting their starters. With their starters playing normal minutes tonight, I look for the defensive intensity to be high throughout the game on both sides.

Not counting overtime, each of the last four meetings between these teams have seen 193 or fewer combined points.  That 193-point effort came in Game 1, while the other three saw 191 points or fewer.  As you can see, these teams tend to play in low-scoring games when they get together.

Brooklyn is 19-5 to the UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Miami.  The Heat are 91-57 to the UNDER off a blowout win by 20 points or more since 1996.  Bet the Nets and the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Nets/Heat Side & Total Parlay on Brooklyn +8/UNDER 192

These plays go hand in hand.  I look for Brooklyn to slow the pace of the game down to make it more to its liking, giving it a better chance to win this all-important Game 2.

Reasons for Brooklyn - The Nets rested their starters in the 4th quarter last game because they were getting blown out.  It was much-needed rest for a team that was coming off a grueling 7-game series against Toronto.  They simply did not come to play in Game 1, while Miami did.

I look for those roles to be reversed tonight.  The Nets will come out with a fire knowing that they cannot afford to fall behind 0-2 if they want to win this series.  This is essentially a must-win game for them, while the Heat could relax a little like they tend to do off a blowout win.

Brooklyn is 10-2 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more this season.  Miami is 12-22 ATS after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games this year.  The Nets are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a double-digit loss.

Reasons for the Under - There was no defense played in the second half of Game 1 because the Nets were getting blown out and resting their starters. With their starters playing normal minutes tonight, I look for the defensive intensity to be high throughout the game on both sides.

Not counting overtime, each of the last four meetings between these teams have seen 193 or fewer combined points.  That 193-point effort came in Game 1, while the other three saw 191 points or fewer.  As you can see, these teams tend to play in low-scoring games when they get together.

Brooklyn is 19-5 to the UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Miami.  The Heat are 91-57 to the UNDER off a blowout win by 20 points or more since 1996.  Bet the Nets and the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* NBA Second Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers -4.5

The Indiana Pacers represent my strongest play of the second round of the NBA playoffs tonight in Game 2 of their series with the Washington Wizards. After losing Game 1, I fully expect them to bounce back with a blowout victory at home in Game 2.

I'm going to chalk the 96-102 Game 1 loss up to a hangover from the 7-game series against Atlanta, and also tremendous 3-point shooting by Washington.  Indeed, the Wizards went 10-of-16 (62.5%) from 3-point range, and Trevor Ariza was 6-of-6.  That's not going to happen again.

Indiana is 37-9 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 9.6 points per game.  This is one of the toughest places to play in the league, hands down.  Players went up to Roy Hibbert after Game 1 and asked for more from him, and I look for him to respond in Game 2.

Washington is 11-26 ATS in its last 37 games off two or more consecutive road wins.  Indiana is 45-31 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 41-26 ATS following one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  The Wizards 1-12 SU & 4-9 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Indiana.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* Nets/Heat Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn +7.5

The Brooklyn Nets continue to get no respect when facing Miami despite what they did during the regular season.  Everyone wants to just overlook the fact that the Nets went 4-0 against the Heat in the regular year, chalking it up to luck.  I'm not buying it.

Brooklyn set out this offseason to build a contender that could compete with Miami.  I believe it has done that while also proving that with the 4-0 record during the regular season.  I look for Miami to struggle once again in this opener of a seven-game series.

Dwyane Wade may have awoken a sleeping giant with the comments he made leading up to this series.  While Paul Pierce was quick to compliment Lebron James as one of the best players in the game, Wade took a different approach.  On Pierce and KG, Wade said "we thought we buried them in Boston".  That was obviously a shot at their age, and one these two and the team will not take lightly.

Jason Kidd's record against the Heat in recent years is telling.  Going back to the 2007-08 season, his teams have won 16 of the last 21 games he played in against Miami, and now he's 4-0 as a coach against the Heat.  The guy was a coach on the floor as a player, and he clearly knows ways to beat this team.

Brooklyn is 17-3 ATS in road games when playing six or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 10-1 ATS in road games off a win over a division rival over the last two years.  Miami is 6-17 ATS in home games off a road win over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the Nets Tuesday.

20* Clippers/Thunder Game 1 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have an excellent chance to steal Game 1 of this series against the Oklahoma City Thunder.  I'll just take the points for some insurance tonight folks.

We saw in the first round several road teams steal Game 1.  It's when the home team is most vulnerable, especially since both teams had just one day to prepare for this after playing in Game 7's on Saturday.

The only game the Clippers played all that poorly in against the Warriors in the opening round was Game 4, which was played on the same day of the Donald Sterling news, so none of the players showed up for it.  Their other two losses came by a combined five points.  I just think that situation has brought this team closer together, and they are going to be a dangerous team throughout the rest of the playoffs because of it.

I believe the Clippers match up very well with the Thunder.  Chris Paul is one of the best defenders in the league and will give Russell Westbrook fits.  Matt Barnes is one of the most underrated wing defenders in the league, and his length will help contain Kevin Durant.

The Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last five conference semifinals games.  The Clippers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 meetings in Oklahoma City.  Los Angeles is 15-3 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite this season.  Bet the Clippers Monday.

25* NBA First Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Brooklyn Nets +3

The Brooklyn Nets staved off elimination in Game 6 with an emphatic 97-83 victory over the Toronto Raptors.  Now, I look for them to capitalize and win this series with a Game 7 victory, but I'll take the points for some added insurance.

Toronto has been one of the best stories in the league this year.  However, I just don't believe this inexperienced team has what it takes to win a winner-take-all Game 7.  Brooklyn, meanwhile, has several veterans that have been through these types of games.

That veteran presence showed up in Game 6 as they came together defensively and limited the Raptors to just 38.5% shooting.  Deron Williams led the way with 23 points, while fellow playoff vets Joe Johnson (17), Kevin Garnett (13) and Paul Pierce (12) all finished in double figures as well.

Brooklyn is 16-3 ATS in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 9-1 ATS in road games off a win over a division rival over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Nets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  These four trends combine for a 35-4 system backing Brooklyn.  Bet the Nets Sunday.

20* Warriors/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +7

I had Los Angeles picked to win this series all along.  However, I do not believe they should be a 7-point favorite over Golden State in Game 7 of this series Saturday night.  I'll take the points as a result.

Golden State is a very profitable 52-34 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  Amazingly, the Warriors are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games in the first round of the playoffs.  Time and time again they are undervalued, and 2014 has been no exception.  Bet the Warriors Saturday.

25* Western Conference Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rockets/Blazers UNDER 213

Close out games tend to be played at a slower pace due to the value of each possession. We saw that last night as the Hawks and Pacers combined for 183 points and the Thunder and Grizzlies combined for 188.  The Clippers/Warriors game only saw 199 combined points despite a total set of around 210 in most places.

Finally, after a 4-0 OVER run through their first four games of this series, the Rockets and Blazers went UNDER in Game 5 as Houston won 108-98 at home for 206 combined points.  I look for a similar combined point total in Game 6 here tonight as the pace in this series has really slowed down, and that should continue.

Four of the last six meetings between these teams have gone to overtime, which is a complete fluke and has led to the inflation of their totals in this series, including tonight.  Those overtime games make it seem like these teams score a lot more points when they get together than they really do.  Plus, what are the chances of this game going to OT for a 5th time in 7 meetings?

Another reason I'm backing the UNDER is that Houston started Omer Asik and Dwight Howard, two centers, together for the first time all season in Game 5.  It worked as they held Portland to just 98 points and 43.4% shooting while deploying that defensive lineup.  The Rockets are sure to go back to that line-up in Game 6, which will help pave the way for the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Raptors/Nets Game 6 No-Brainer on UNDER 192

I'll back the UNDER in this game between the Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets.  These close out games always seemed to be played at a slower pace because every possession is so important. 

We saw that last night as the Hawks and Pacers combined for 183 points and the Thunder and Grizzlies combined for 188.  The Clippers/Warriors game only saw 199 combined points despite a total set of around 210 in most places.

These teams exploded for 228 combined points in Game 5, which has forced the books to inflate this number.  Brooklyn shot 53.3% from the floor, 47.8% (11-of-23) from 3-point range, and shot 30 free throws.  Toronto shot 48.1% from the floor, 46.2% (12-of-26) from 3-point range, and 36 free throws. 

This game after a 166-point performance in Game 4 in an 87-79 Toronto victory.  Clearly, Game 5 was the aberration in this series.  I look for Game 6 to take on a similar tone to Game 4.  Toronto is 10-1 to the UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Nets last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Thunder/Grizzlies Game 6 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -2.5

I look for the Oklahoma City Thunder to win Game 6 tonight on the road to force a Game 7.  They already showed that they could go on the road and win a must-win game when they were trailing 2-1 in Game 4, eventually winning in overtime to even the series at 2-2.

The Thunder have had poor luck in this series in the close games.  Each of the last four games have gone to overtime, and they have managed to lose three of the four.  Unlike the rest of this series, I look for Game 6 to be a blowout in the Thunder's favor given what's at stake with their season on the line.

Oklahoma City is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games off a close loss by 3 points or less.  Memphis is 7-23 ATS off three straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  The Thunder are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Grizzlies are 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win.  Roll with the Thunder in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Pacers/Hawks Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -1

The Indiana Pacers are the better team in this series.  I still believe they are going to prevail in seven games, but it starts with a Game 6 victory in Atlanta.  I look for head coach Frank Vogel to make the proper adjustments to match Atlanta's small line-up that has been killing them.

Indiana went small in the second half of Game 5 and cut a 30-point deficit down to single-digits before eventually losing 97-107.  Of course, everything went right for the Hawks in that game as they shot 50% from the field and 55.6% (15-of-27) from 3-point range.  That won't happen again.

The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a S.U. loss.  The Hawks are 5-22 ATS in their last 27 games playing on 2 days rest.  Atlanta is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Take the Pacers in Game 6 Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Nets/Raptors UNDER 191

Once again, the books have set the bar too high in this Game 5 between the Brooklyn Nets and Toronto Raptors.  I backed the UNDER in Game 4 with an 87-79 Toronto victory and 166 combined points.  I look for Game 5 to take on a similar defensive tone.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (TORONTO) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, in April games are 374-268 (58.3%) since 1996.

The UNDER is 6-2-1 in Nets last nine games when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Raptors last seven conference quarterfinal games.  The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams in Toronto.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Mavericks/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on Dallas +6.5

The Dallas Mavericks are showing excellent value as a 6.5-point underdog in Game 5 in what has been one of the most exciting series of the playoffs.  Three of the four games have been decided by 5 points or less and a combined 10 points.

The lone exception was in Game 2 when the Mavericks won 113-92 in an absolute blowout in San Antonio.  Dallas is a perfect 4-0 ATS in this series with its two losses coming by 5 points in Game 1 and 4 points in Game 4.  This team is certainly not backing down from the defending Western Conference champions.

Dallas is 14-2 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season.  The Mavericks are 92-56 ATS in their last 148 road games when playing four or less games in 10 days.  Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Mavericks are 41-14 ATS in their last 55 games following a loss.  Dallas is 49-19 ATS in its last 68 road games.  Roll with the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 187.5

The books have once again set the bar too high in this Game 5 showdown between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies.  They have done so because each of the last three games have gone to overtime in this series, which has inflated the number.

The chances of a fourth straight OT game are slim to none, and thus this game should finish well UNDER the posted total.  Heck, Game 4 finished with 181 combined points despite overtime in a 92-89 OKC victory.  In fact, three of the first four games in this series have finished with 186 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.

As this series has gone on, points have been even harder to come by.  These teams combined for 170 points at the end of regulation in Game 3, and 170 points again at the end of regulation in Game 4.  These teams are so familiar with one another having played against each other in the playoffs last year, and that familiarity has led to great defense.

Memphis is 20-8 to the UNDER in its last 28 road games.  Oklahoma City is 29-11 to the UNDER in its last 40 games when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 15-7 in Grizzlies last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Mavs/Spurs TNT Monday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 203.5

Off back-to-back overs in this series, the total has been inflated Monday in Game 4 between Dallas and San Antonio.  This is the highest total set of the series, which alone lets you know that there's value with the UNDER.

These teams have shot lights out in the past two games, and that's just unlikely to happen again, especially anything close to what they did in Game 3.  In Game 2, the Mavs won 113-92 and shot 48.9% while the Spurs shot 50.0%.  In Game 3, the Mavs won 109-108 and shot 51.2%, while San Antonio shot 54.3%.

The longer a series goes, the more familiar a team is with its opponent.  That familiarity tends to lead toward low-scoring games.  That's why you'll see the totals in most series get lowered as it goes on.  Again, the fact that this is the highest total of the series thus far assures that we're getting some value here.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Spurs last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is  4-0 in Mavericks last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Nets/Raptors Game 4 No-Brainer on UNDER 192

No analysis today because I'm on vacation.  I'll be back with full analysis by Tuesday.  Thanks, and good luck, Jack!

15* Clippers/Warriors Game 4 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 210

No analysis today because I'm on vacation.  I'll be back with full analysis by Tuesday.  Thanks, and good luck, Jack!

15* Bulls/Wizards Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +1.5

No analysis today because I'm on vacation.  I'll be back with full analysis by Tuesday.  Thanks, and good luck, Jack!

20* Thunder/Grizzlies Saturday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 189

Simply put, if you were on board with me in Game 3 of this series, you got robbed as did I.  We had the UNDER 191 in Game 3, which was tied 85-85 at the end of regulation for 170 combined points.  We still nearly won in overtime, but ultimately got the loss due to some late free throws in a 98-95 (OT) Memphis victory.

So, two of the first three meetings in this series have gone to overtime.  Two were well UNDER the posted total at the end of regulation with 186 combined points in Game 1 and 170 in Game 3.  Dating back further, 10 of the last 13 meetings between these teams have seen 188 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.

I look for Game 4 to take on a similar path as Game 3, but hopefully this time we don't get burned by overtime.  The chances of three of the first four games going to OT are slim to none, and that's the only way I foresee this Game 4 surpassing this posted total.  This will be a defensive battle between these bitter rivals who are very familiar with one another having played in the playoffs last year.

Memphis is 9-1 to the UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less this season.  The Grizzlies are 45-24 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1996.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Spurs/Mavericks Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 202.5

The books have set the bar too high for this Game 3 showdown between the San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks.  With the series tied 1-1, I look for both teams to be laying it all on the line defensively to try and get a victory in this all-important Game 3.

After combining for just 175 points in Game 1, these teams combined for 205 points in Game 2.  I fully expect Game 3 to fall somewhere in between.  Dallas got a ton of easy points en route to a 112-93 victory in Game 2 thanks to 22 turnovers from San Antonio, which won't happen again. 

The Spurs shot 50.0% from the field while the Mavs shot 48.9% in Game 2, and I don't expect either team to connect at that high of a clip again.  Game 3 is where the defensive adjustments usually come into play, which makes it harder for each team to score.  That's why you have seen my taking a bunch of UNDERS in Game 3's.  The following trend explains why.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DALLAS) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 42-12 (77.8%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Pacers/Hawks Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -2

It's pretty much do or die for the Indiana Pacers in Game 4.  I fully expect them to rise to the occasion and to re-gain home-court advantage with a victory in Atlanta.  They are the better team, and with their season on the line, I look for them to come together in this one.

The Hawks had huge edges in 3-pointers and free throw shooting in Game 3 that allowed them to win.  They shot 37 free throws compared to 21 for Indiana, clearly getting the majority of the calls throughout the game, which won't happen again.  They also connected on 12 3-pointers for the game. 

Yet, Indiana had a chance to win late.  The Pacers were within a couple points in the 4th quarter despite shooting 37.6% from the field and 25.0% from 3-point range.  Basically, the Pacers couldn't have played a worse game, while the Hawks couldn't have played a whole lot better, or gotten any more breaks to go their way.  The chances of these things happening two games in a row are slim.

Indiana is 30-17 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 39-26 ATS off one or consecutive losses.  Atlanta is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games off a home win.  Roll with the Pacers in Game 4 Saturday.

20* Rockets/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 216

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between Houston and Portland for Game 3 Friday.  After getting robbed on the UNDER in Game 2 with a total set of 215 points and a final combined score of 217, I have no doubt this Game 3 showdown will be more low-scoring.

Indeed, Game 2 was well on pace to go UNDER until the final few minutes where fouls piled up and neither team missed a free throw.  They combined for 57 points.  It was a 100-93 game with 3 minutes left, giving us 22 points to work with.  That would usually lead to an UNDER 90% of the time, but some bad breaks with fouls in the end led to 24 combined points over the final 3 minutes, which is almost unheard of.

Last night, all three Game 3's should have went UNDER the total.  The Hawks/Pacers game did and so did the Clippers/Warriors contest.  The only reason the Grizzlies/Thunder game went over was due to overtime in a game that was tied 85-85 at the end of regulation, which was 20 points under the posted total of 190.

Yes, I was on that under and a little bitter about it still today, but I can take some consolation in knowing I was on the right side of it, but again had a bad break to take the loss.  Game 3 is where I really like to play the UNDERS because it's where the adjustments have been made after the first two games to where both teams are very familiar with one another.  Familiarity leads to low-scoring games.

I especially like this 'UNDER' in the Rockets/Blazers Game 3 because the first two games have gone over the total, which has kept this line inflated.  Neither game should have went over because the first game went into overtime tied 106-106 at the end of regulation, while Game 2 had that onslaught of points late to get the over by a mere two points.  It would take another miracle for Game 3 to go 'over' as well, and I'll bank on it not happening.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 42-12 (77.8%) since 1996.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Bulls/Wizards Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +3

This is the exact type of game the Chicago Bulls live for.  Everyone has counted them out after losing the first two games of this series at home, and everything except the guys inside that locker room believe this series is over.  This team plays its best when it is counted out.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Tom Thibodeau deserves Coach of the Year every year with what he has been able to do with this team.  The players take after their head coach, who has absolutely no quit in him.  He'll rally the troops and you'll see the Bulls put forth one of their best efforts of the season in Game 3.

Chicago actually played some of its best basketball on the road this season posting a 21-20 record away from home.  That included a 96-78 road victory in its last trip to Washington on April 5th.  Washington actually owns a worse home record (22-19) than a road record (24-19) on the year.

The Bulls have a lot of playoff experience on this team.  They know a series isn't over until its over.  Washington, meanwhile, is loaded with inexperience in terms of the playoffs.  While that actually worked in the Wizards' favor in the first two games of this series as they didn't know any better, I believe it will work against them here.  They will be content with their 2-0 lead and not be able to match the effort of the desperate Bulls in Game 3.

Thibodeau is 39-22 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Chicago.  Thibodeau is 32-16 ATS off a home loss as the coach of Chicago.  Randy Whitman is 27-51 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less as the coach of Washington.  The Wizards are 11-25 ATS in their last 36 games off two or more consecutive road wins.  Chicago is 91-57 ATS in its last 148 road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 51% to 60%.  Take the Bulls Friday.

20* Raptors/Nets Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 192

I expect Game 3 to play out similar to Game 1 where the Nets beat the Raptors 94-87 for 181 combined points.  I believe Game 2 was the aberration as these teams combined for 195 points in a 100-95 Toronto victory.

Game 2 was playing out just like Game 1 through three quarters.  They had combined for 40, 44 and 46 points in the first three quarters, respectively.  However, the teams exploded for 65 combined points in the fourth quarter, which made the final score seem like less of a defensive battle than it really was.

Kevin Garnett spoke openly about how Brooklyn's fourth quarter defense was unacceptable as it allowed the Raptors to put up 36 points.  You can bet that the Nets will come back with tremendous intensity defensively in Game 3.  Toronto will also bring it on that end of the floor like it has all season.  The Raptors rank 9th in the league in defensive efficiency.

This has certainly been a half-court series to this point, and I don't expect that to change in Game 3.  Brooklyn ranks 25th in the league in pace at 93.7 possessions per game.  Toronto ranks 23rd in pace at 94.4 possessions per game.  Neither team will look to run much in Game 3, especially with the adjustments that will be made, which will favor both defenses.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Clippers/Warriors TNT Thursday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215.5

The books are overreacting by raising this total set in Game 3 between the Clippers and Warriors compared to the first two games in this series.  I'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what will be the lowest-scoring game of the series by far.

The defense was a little shoddy in Game 1 as they combined for 214 points with a total set of 211.  They Warriors played no defense in a 98-138 loss in Game 2, content that they had stolen Game 1.  It was such a big blowout that the starters got pulled in the second half and the points kept piling on with no defense being played due to the outcome already being decided.  Game 2's total was set at 212.5 points, and Game 3's is now 215.5.  As you can see, the value is with the UNDER because of it.

You can bet that both teams will be bringing 100% effort defensively in this Game 3.  Golden State wants to make amends for it's embarrassing Game 2 showdown, while Los Angeles wants to regain home-court advantage.  These teams are very familiar with how one another wants to play, which favors the defenses moving forward.  Adjustments will be made, especially considering these teams have had two days' rest to prepare, which again favors defense.

Prior to the first two games of this series, six of the last seven meetings between the Clippers and Warriors had seen 209 or fewer combined points.  I simply believe the first two games of this series were an aberration.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 40-12 (76.9%) since 1996.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Thunder/Grizzlies TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 191

The books have set the bar too high in Game 3 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies.  This is the highest they have set the total for any of the first three games in this series.

They have done so following a high-scoring game in Game 2.  However, the only reason that game saw 216 combined points is because it went to overtime.  There were also a ton of fouls at the end of regulation that inflated the final score.  In fact, these teams combined for 65 points in the final period after combing for 40, 49 and 44 points in the first three.  This number has been inflated due to Game 2's final score.

The defensive intensity in Game 3 will be even higher than it was the first two games.  Both teams will be trying to get home-court advantage in the series with a win.  Also, having played twice already, these teams are familiar with one another, which favors the defenses.  They have also had two days off in between Game 2 and Game 3 to prepare, which will benefit the defenses as well with the adjustments that will be made.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games are 33-8 (80.5%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 29-10 in Thunder's last 39 games when playing on two days' rest.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Pacers/Hawks NBA TV Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -2

The Indiana Pacers get the nod Thursday as a small road favorite against the Atlanta Hawks.  They showed me something in Game 2 that I believe will carry over into Game 3.  They got back to playing with a passion in the second half, turning a 48-52 deficit at the break into a a 16-point blowout thanks to a 31-13 third quarter.

Indiana got back to playing defense and playing for one another, which is what got them to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last year.  The Pacers held the Hawks to just 33 points after intermission.  I really believe we'll look back to that second half as a turning point for them in the playoffs, and it will carry over into Game 3 tonight.

The fact of the matter is that the Hawks are out-classed here.  They only made the playoffs because the Eastern Conference was down this year as their 38-44 record was good enough to get in.  If Indiana shows up to play, it should beat this team 90% of the time.  There's no question it shows up in Game 3 to try and regain home-court advantage.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 85 points or less are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1996.  The favorite is 26-10-1 ATS in the last 37 meetings.  Bet the Pacers Thursday.

20* Blazers/Rockets TNT Wednesday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215

This total is a complete overreaction from Game 1.  That contest was much more lower-scoring than the final score would indicate.  It was tied 106-106 at the end of regulation for a combined 212 points, which would have been UNDER the 215.5-point total. 

Instead, the combined for another 30 in overtime in a 122-120 Portland victory.  They needed 60 combined points in the fourth quarter just to get to 212 at the end of regulation.  The Blazers used the hack-a-Howard strategy, which got them back in the game. 

While that is concerning heading into Game 2, I'm not that worried about it because head coach Kevin McHale took Howard out after a couple of misses, then put him back in with under two minutes to go.  That way, the Blazers could not intentionally foul him.  I look for McHale to take him out even sooner if they try the same thing again.

This is the playoffs, and while both teams play at a fast pace normally, things slow down a little more in the postseason.  The defensive intensity gets kicked up a notch, which makes it easy to pick apart these high point totals by backing the UNDER.  I liked what I saw from both teams defensively in Game 1, and I look for that intensity to be even more extreme in this all-important Game 2.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 33-7 (82.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in in Game 2 Wednesday.

20* Wizards/Bulls TNT Tuesday Night BAILOUT on Chicago -5

After blowing a 13-point lead and losing Game 1 of this series, I look for the resilient Chicago Bulls to bounce back with a Game 2 victory.  This has been a resilient bunch all season with the losses of Derrick Rose and Luol Deng.  They aren't about to pack it in now and give up on this series after losing one game.

Washington is a young team that probably doesn't quite understand needing to go for a team's throat when it is down.  John Wall, Bradley Bill and company won't come back with that killer mentality.  They are satisfied with taking one of the first two games in Chicago, and I look for that to show tonight.  The Bulls will be winning all of the effort plays in this one, which will help them win and cover this 5-point spread.

The Wizards are 10-25 ATS in thier last 35 games off two or more consecutive road wins.  Washington is 102-149 ATS off two or more consecutive wins since 1996.  Chicago is 27-13 ATS off a home loss over the last three years.  The Bulls are 25-15 ATS revenging a loss this season.  Chicago is 12-1 (92%) ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  Bet the Bulls in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* Hawks/Pacers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Indiana -7

The Indiana Pacers have come too far to let a Game 1 loss affect them.  They have gotten the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, which was their goal coming into the year.  They will use it to their advantage and bounce back with a blowout home victory over Atlanta in Game 2.

Not a whole lot went right for the Pacers in Game 1 as they shot just 42.0% from the field and 69.6% from the free throw line.  A lot went right for Atlanta as it made 11 three-pointers and shot 24-of-29 (82.8%) from the free throw line.  It was the more aggressive team, getting to the line six more times than the Pacers (16-23), but I look for them to have a role reversal in that department.  Indiana will be the more aggressive team in this one.

I have a feeling we may look back to this Game 1 loss as the wake up call the Pacers needed to go on a big run to the Eastern Conference Finals.  The fact of the matter is that this team is still one of the best in the league, while the Hawks only made the playoffs because the East was so down this year.  They got in with a 38-44 record, so they really aren't that good.

Atlanta is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 games when playing on two days' rest.  The Hawks are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The favorites is 25-10-1 ATS in the last 36 meetings in this series.  Take the Pacers in Game 2 Tuesday.

25* NBA Opening Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Warriors/Clippers UNDER 212.5

After a high-scoring affair in Game 1, I look for the defense to be much better in Game 2 and for points to be harder to come by.  It won't take much considering they combined for 214 points in a 109-105 Golden State victory Saturday.

The perception is that the Warriors and Clippers don't play much defense, but that couldn't be further from the truth.  In fact, the Warriors actually rank 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 99.9 points per 100 possessions.  The Clippers rank 7th in that same category, yielding 102.1 points per 100 possessions.

These teams did combine for 209 or fewer points in three of their four regular season meetings.  So, if anything, Game 1's 214-point total was the aberration.  Both teams made 10 3-pointers and shot over 40% from distance, which isn't likely to happen again.

The UNDER is 40-18 in Warriors last 58 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 9-4-1 in Clippers last 14 home games.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 33-7 (82.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Wizards/Bulls Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington +4.5

The Wizards finally turned the corner this season. They ended a five-year playoff drought and turned all their promise into production. The front office has eyed the playoffs all season, making big moves to turn this team into a possible contender. The Wizards traded for Marcin Gortat in the preseason to make up for the loss of Emeka Okafor. They traded for Andre Miller, and signed veterans like Al Harrington and Drew Gooden.

However, it has been the emergence of a couple of young superstars that have made the difference. The 23-year-old John Wall (19.3 ppg, 8.8 apg) has turned into a real leader this season while playing in all 82 games. The 20-year-old Beal (17.1 ppg, 40.2% 3-pointers) can fill it up with the best of them. Gortat (13.2 ppg, 9.5 rpg) and Nene (14.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg) have played well inside.

The most overlooked player on the entire team is Trevor Ariza (14.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.6 aspg, 40.7% 3-pointers), who does a little bit of everything. He will defend the best player on the other team night in and night out, and he has really improved his outside shooting to make him an all-around player. He helped the Wizards win four straight games to close out the season, which had them avoiding Miami in the first round as a potential No. 7 seed.

The Wizards shared the ball very well this season, ranking 7th in the league in assists at 17.7 per game. Their unselfishness helped them finish a respectable 16th in offensive efficiency, averaging 103.3 points per 100 possessions. This is where they have a huge advantage over the sometimes stagnant Bulls, who rank a woeful 27th in offensive efficiency at 99.7 points per 100 possessions. Chicago can go for long stretches without scoring.

This has actually been a favorable match-up for Washington in recent years believe it or not. It not only won two of three meetings this season, but dating back to last year, it has won four of the past six meetings. The Wizards have done so behind a dominant effort defensively. They have held to the Bulls to an average of 88.5 points per game in their last six meetings.

Washington is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing six or less games in 14 days this season.  The Wizards are 27-11 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  Washington is 8-0 ATS in road games after scoring 55 points or more in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Wizards are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 road games.  Take the Wizards in Game 1 Sunday.

20* Bobcats/Heat Game 1 No-Brainer on Charlotte +10

The Bobcats were the surprise of the season this year. They made the playoffs while finishing with a winning record for just the second time in franchise history. Steve Clifford deserves Coach of the Year consideration for the job that he has done this season. He took a team that went 21-61 in 2013-13 to a 43-39 club this season, improving them by a whopping 22 victories.

Clifford doesn’t deserve all the credit. Al Jefferson probably should get the most of it with the MVP-caliber season he had. He proved to be an excellent offseason acquisition and was really the only player of any significance that this team added. Jefferson put up 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game as he was a double-double waiting to happen.

Kemba Walker (17.7 ppg, 6.1 apg) also took his game to the next level this season. Gerald Henderson (14.0 ppg) can fill it up, Josh McRoberts (8.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 4.3 apg) can do it all, and Gary Neal (11.2 ppg) was a nice pick up before the trade deadline. This is a team that heads into the playoffs with a lot of confidence after going 7-1 over their final eight games of the season as they nearly moved all the way up to the No. 5 seed in the East.

The Bobcats have been a completely different team since they gave up 61 points to James in that loss. Indeed, they have won 16 of their last 22 games overall to clinch a playoff spot. They went 7-1 over the final eight games of the season. Miami, meanwhile, lost five of its last six games heading into the postseason.

The one weakness for the Heat is their post play, which can be suspect at times, especially defensively. That’s why they signed Greg Oden, but he’s not going to play that big of a role for them. Jefferson is averaging 26 points and 13 rebounds over his last 10 games. He should have his way with the Heat in this series, which gives the Bobcats a fighting chance.

Charlotte is 9-1 ATS off two consecutive games as a favorite.  The Bobcats are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They took Miami to overtime and lost by a single point to them in another game this year, so they are clearly closing the gap in this head-to-head series.  Bet the Bobcats Sunday.

20* Hawks/Pacers Game 1 No-Brainer on Indiana -7.5

The Indiana Pacers are undervalued right now due to their poor finish to the regular season.  They should be an even bigger favorite over the Atlanta Hawks in Game 1.  I'll take advantage and back the Pacers in what I expect to be a double-digit victory by game's end.

Indiana is the best team in the East in my opinion, and while many don't believe it deserves the No. 1 seed because of its finish, the fact of the matter is that it finished with the best record.  This team easily got bored in the second half of the regular season, but the playoffs are a different animal and will have them coming together as a team.

The only reason the Hawks made the playoffs is because the Eastern Conference is so terrible as a whole.  Its 38-44 record was good enough to hold off the lowly New York Knicks for the final spot.  This is a team that went 1-14 over a 15-game stretch this season.  They stand little chance of competing in this series considering their best player, Al Horford, was lost for the season.

The one constant with the Pacers is that they defend, and defense wins in the playoffs. They led the league in defensive efficiency this season, giving up just 96.7 points per 100 possessions. To compare, Atlanta ranked 14th in defensive efficiency, giving up 104.1 points per 100 possessions.

These Indiana players will be chomping at the bit to hit the court after resting down the stretch.  They should have one of their best efforts of the season in Game 1 because of it, while also playing with a chip on their shoulder due to the negative publicity they have received through the media for their struggles over the past month-plus.

The Hawks are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 games playing on 2 days' rest.  Atlanta is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The favorite it 25-9-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings in this series.  Bet the Pacers in Game 1 Saturday.

15* Warriors/Clippers Game 1 Line Mistake on Los Angeles -7

Despite playing without Chris Paul for 20 games this season due to injury, the Clippers managed to win 57 games and finish as the No. 3 seed in the stacked Western Conference.  When he returned to health, they went 20-5 over their final 20 games of the season.  The fifth loss doesn't count because Paul didn't play in the season finale.

To put it bluntly, the Clippers are my favorite value bet to win the NBA Championship.  The trio of Paul, Blake Griffin and head coach Doc Rivers makes them an enticing bet not only in Game 1, but to win it all.  Griffin really stepped up his game in Paul's absence this year, averaging 24.1 points and 9.5 rebounds per game.

What makes the Clippers so tough to deal with is that they rank 1st in the league in offensive efficiency, averaging 109.4 points per 100 possessions.  That is impressive in Rivers' first year on the job, especially when you consider the fact that Paul missed 20 games and J.J. Redick (15.2 ppg) missed 47.  Having the best sixth man in the league in Jamal Crawford (18.6 ppg) coming off the bench doesn't hurt, either.

Los Angeles will have a huge advantage in the paint in Game 1 due to the absence of Andrew Bogut for the Warriors.  Bogut is out indefinitely with fractured ribs.  To explain his importance, consider that the Warriors allowed 98.8 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, and 100.5 with him off during the regular season.  Golden State simply isn't the same team without him in the lineup because of his defense.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team has won seven straight meetings.  Los Angeles is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with Golden State, winning by 13, 11 and 26 points.  I fully expect another double-digit blowout in Game 1 this afternoon.  Take the Clippers in Game 1 Saturday.

15* Warriors/Nuggets NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +8

The Golden State Warriors get the call Wednesday as a massive 8-point underdog to the Denver Nuggets.  Sure, the fact that they are locked into the No. 6 seed is concerning because they are likely to rest their starters, but this team is deep enough to stay within eight of Denver.

The Nuggets, meanwhile, lack depth right now due to injury.  They are expected to be without Ty Lawson, J.J. Hickson, Nate Robinson, Danilo Gallinari and JaVale McGee.  Now, they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days after falling 105-117 to the Clippers last night. They are going to have a hard time getting up for this game knowing that they will be facing the Warriors without Curry, Thompson and Lee.

Indeed, the Warriors have a deep bench.  Harrison Barnes, Jermaine O'Neal, Jordan Crawford, Marreese Speights, Draymond Green and Steve Blake have all played significant minutes for them this season.  This crew is more than capable of not only staying within 8 points of depleted Denver, but pulling off the upset as well.

Golden State is 13-2 ATS off two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 16-5 ATS in April games over the last two years.  Golden State is 50-32 ATS as a road underdog over the last three years.  The Nuggets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 0 days rest.  The Warriors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Nuggets, including 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Denver.  Take the Warriors Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn Nets +7

The Brooklyn Nets are still playing for something.  They can clinch the No. 5 seed with a win tonight, but a loss would have them slotted as the No. 6 seed.  That means if they were to survive the first round, they'd have to play Miami in the second round.  They want the No. 5 seed because then they'd get Indiana in the second.

The Nets were beaten badly by the New York Knicks last night, which has public perception believing that they have quit.  I'm not buying it, and by Paul Pierce's comments after the game, it's clear that this contest against Cleveland is important for them to get things figured out heading into the playoffs.

"(This) was an example of how not to take a step forward," said Paul Pierce, who had 13 points in just 20 minutes. "We were off our game offensively, defensively, all phases of the game and that's not how you want to go into the playoffs."

 Cleveland was officially eliminated from the playoffs with a 116-119 loss to Milwaukee on April 11 in its third-to-last game.  It did not even show up against Boston the next night, losing 99-111 as a 9-point favorite.  It won't show up tonight, either, and it will also be playing without Luol Deng (back).

Brooklyn has won 10 of its last 13 meetings with Cleveland overall.  In fact, it has only lost by more than 5 points to the Cavaliers once in its last 14 meetings.  That makes for a 13-1 system backing the Nets pertaining to tonight's spread of +6.5.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

15* Nuggets/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 219.5