15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +13.5

The Washington Wizards are 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and have been pretty competitive.  In their one non-cover, the Wizards shot 32-of-89 (36%) from the field and 10-of-42 (24%) from 3-point range in their 123-100 loss at Sacramento.  I expect some positive shooting regression from them tonight.

Now they're up against a Lakers team that is overvalued and ranks just 24th in defensive rating this season.  The Lakers have just one win by more than 13 points in their last 22 games, making for a 21-1 system backing the Wizards pertaining to this 13.5-point spread.

The Wizards are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Lakers not once losing by more than 13 points.  Bet the Wizards Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Lakers OVER 228.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 253 combined points with Phoenix, 226 with Minnesota, 231 with Oklahoma City, 236 with Golden State and 223 with Sacramento.

The Wizards shot 32-of-89 (36%) from the field and 10-of-42 (24%) from 3-point range in that 123-100 loss at Sacramento.  I expect some positive shooting regression from them tonight which will be the key to us cashing this OVER 228.5 ticket.

The Lakers are as healthy as they have been in a long time and should hang a big number on the Wizards.  That's especially the case after playing some very good defensive teams here recently in the Clippers, Heat and Spurs.  But the Lakers rank 24th in defensive rating so the Wizards should hang a big number as well.

The OVER is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings with 231 or more combined points in all six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on UCF +16.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are overvalued right now since beating Kansas by 17 at home.  They went on the road and were upset by West Virginia last time out, and now I believe they are laying too many points at home tonight to UCF.  The Cyclones just lost Milan Momcilovic (10.3 PPG) to a hand injury prior to the Kansas game and his loss will be felt.

UCF (12-5) is one of the more underrated teams in the Big 12.  They have upset wins over Texas A&M at home and Texas Tech on the road this season.  They only lost to Houston by 1 as 13-point home dogs last time out, they upset Arizona State on the road the game prior, and they only lost by 8 at Arizona the game before that.

The Knights are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall and will hang within this inflated number tonight.  Bet UCF Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio State/Purdue UNDER 141.5

Purdue ranks 290th in adjusted tempo and 302nd in average length of offensive possession.  The Boilermakers are 22nd in adjusted defense.  Purdue and its opponents have combined for 142 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall, including 123 with Oregon and 127 with Washington in their last two games coming in.

The Ohio State Buckeyes have two recent games that went to OT that are pushing this total up higher than it should be.  The Buckeyes and their opponents have combined for 144 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last five games coming in.

Ohio State and Purdue have combined for 142 or fewer points in three of their last four meetings and 146 or fewer in all four.  They have combined for 146 or fewer points at the end of regulation in eight of their last nine meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bradley/Belmont OVER 153.5

Two of the better offensive teams in the country square off tonight when Belmont hosts Bradley.  The Bruins will control the tempo playing at home.  They rank 23rd in adjusted tempo and 23rd in average length of offensive possession, and they will be pushing the tempo.

The Bruins rank 81st in adjusted offense and 243rd in adjusted defense, so they really profile as an OVER team.  They are scoring 81.4 points per game this season while ranking 38th in effective FG percentage and 45th in 3-point percentage.  The OVER is 12-5 in Bruins last 17 games overall.

Bradley ranks 82nd in adjusted offense, 7th in effective FG percentage and 1st in 3-point percentage.  The Braves are scoring 80.4 points per game this season.  These teams met last season with Bradley winning 95-72 at home for 167 combined points.  It will be another shootout in their first meeting of 2025.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Duquesne +4

The Duquesne Dukes are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven lined games with six outright upsets as underdogs.  

They beat UC-Irvine by 16 as 7-point home dogs, beat Rhode Island by 12 as 1.5-point home dogs, beat Saint Joe's by 4 as 2.5-point home dogs, beat St. Bonaventure by 18 as 2-point home dogs and won at George Washington by 8 as 4-point road dogs.

The Dayton Flyers are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Flyers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall with two wins by a combined 3 points at home against UNLV and Loyola-Chicago as double-digit favorites in both.  

They have three outright upset losses during this stretch to George Washington by 20 as 9-point road favorites, to UMass by 4 as 10.5-point road favorites and to George Mason by 8 as 7.5-point home favorites.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Duquesne Tuesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Butler +13.5

Connecticut is overvalued after winning back-to-back national championships.  They don't have as much talent as they did the two previous seasons, and injuries are really starting to catch up to them as well.

The Huskies are 5-2 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They haven't won any of their last 10 games by more than 13 points.  Once the schedule has gotten tougher and they have gotten into conference play, they haven't been able to get margin on teams.  Second-leading scorer Liam McNeeley (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) is out with an ankle injury, and leading scorer Alex Karaban (15.6 PPG, 1.8 BPG) is questionable to play tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Butler Bulldogs.  They put an end to their 9-game losing streak with a 82-77 home win over Seton Hall last time out.  They have been extremely competitive in recent losses as seven of their last eight losses have come by 10 points or fewer.

That includes their 78-74 home loss to UConn as 8.5-point underdogs on December 21st.  The Bulldogs have already proven they can play with the Huskies, and now they will be out for revenge on the road in the rematch.  They have five days off in between games to get ready for this one while the Huskies have only had two days off in between games.  Bet Butler Tuesday.

15* Jazz/Pelicans NBA ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans -11

I'm willing to lay the big number with the New Orleans Pelicans tonight for several reasons.  For starters, the Pelicans are as healthy as they have been in a long time and are playing their best basketball of the season.

Indeed, the Pelicans are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming by a single point 120-119 as 14.5-point underdogs at Boston.  They upset the Bulls and 76ers on the road, and covered at home against Dallas and Utah.

The Jazz are a mess right now.  They are 1-5 SU in their last six games overall with their only victory coming at home by a single point over the hapless Brooklyn Nets 112-111.  Injuries and tanking are the biggest problem for the Jazz right now.

The Jazz are without four of their top five scorers in Makkanen (20.1 PPG), Sexton (18.3 PPG), Collins (17.9 PPG and Clarkson (16.0 PPG).  Sexton is only sitting out because is is almost 100% going to get traded before the deadline.

Sexton had 24 points in their 136-123 loss at New Orleans in their last game on January 17th.  So they won't have his production tonight, and the Pelicans actually are shorter favorites in the rematch after being 12-point favorites in that game.  There's value here on New Orleans even as a double-digit favorite.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

15* Suns/Cavs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Phoenix +8

The Phoenix Suns are playing their best basketball of the season right now going 5-1 SU in their last six games overall with their only loss coming by 5 at Atlanta.  The Suns made a trade for Nick Richards and he had 21 points and 11 rebounds in his Phoenix debut last time out in a 125-121 road win at Detroit.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have actually lost two of their last four and are kind of hitting a wall after a blistering start tot he season.  They lost by 15 as 9-point home favorites to Indiana and by 20 at Oklahoma City.

A big reason for their struggles was losing C Evan Mobley (18.6 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 42.1% 3-pointers) in that loss to OKC.  Mobley is one of the most improved players in the NBA, especially with his ability to now step out and hit 3-pointers.  The Cavaliers miss him a lot with what he can do on both ends considering he's already one of the top defenders in the NBA.  Bet the Suns Monday.

20* Timberwolves/Grizzlies TNT No-Brainer on OVER 233.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating this season.  They will control the tempo playing at home today, and the key to their offense in JA Morant has been upgraded to probable.

The OVER is 6-1-1 in Grizzlies last eight games overall with 234 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  That includes their 127-125 road win at Minnesota on January 11th for 252 combined points.

It's not like the Grizzlies shot the lights out in that game either as they shot just 44% as a team on a whopping 108 attempts from the field.  Neither team shot better than 40% from 3-point range either, so it should be another shootout in the rematch that sails OVER this 233.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Rockets OVER 222

The OVER is 6-0-1 in Rockets last seven games overall with 228 or more combined points in all seven games, including 234 or more in six of them.  They are playing with a lot more tempo of late and it is paying off as the Rockets have scored at least 119 points in each of their last seven games.

The Detroit Pistons are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall including 237 combined points with Toronto, 243 with New York and 246 with Phoenix.  They scored at least 121 points in three of their last four.  This total of 222 is way too short given the way these two teams are trending.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Kings OVER 232.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 253 combined points with Phoenix, 226 with Minnesota, 231 with Oklahoma City and 236 with Golden State.

The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team since switching to Doug Christie at head coach.  They are getting back to pace and space.  The OVER is 6-1 in Kings last seven games overall with 241 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  They just combined for 259 with Houston, 245 with Milwaukee and 243 with Chicago in their last three games coming in.

The Wizards and Kings have combined for at least 233 points in four of their last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Denver Nuggets -7

The Denver Nuggets are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with all five wins coming by 11 points or more.  That includes a 133-113 win at Miami last time out.  A return to health is a big reason for their resurgence as Murray, Jokic and Gordon are all healthy right now.

The same cannot be said for the Magic, who are going through their worst stretch of the season due to all their injuries.  The Magic are just 6-11 SU in their last 17 games and 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.  They were absolutely blown out in their last two games losing by 29 at Milwaukee and by 27 at Boston.

The Magic did get Paulo Banchero back from injury recently but he's not 100% yet and is on a minutes restriction.  He cannot make up for the losses of Franz Wagner (24.4 PPG), Jalen Suggs (16.4 PPG), Mo Wagner (12.9 PPG) and Goga Bitadze (9.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG).  The Magic are just so short-handed right now, and they stand no chance of being competitive against Denver today.  Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Youngstown State -7.5

The Green Bay Phoenix are a dumpster fire.  They are 2-17 SU & 6-12 ATS this season.  Head coach Doug Gottlieb is in over his head, especially since he is without his best player in Anthony Roy (25.7 PPG) due to injury after suspending him earlier this season.

The Phoenix have zero home-court advantage as fans are already tired of this team.  They even lost to DII Michigan Tech at home a few weeks ago.  In fact, 16 of their 17 losses this season have come by at least 6 points, and 15 of the losses have come by 9 points or more.  So they have rarely even been competitive.

Youngstown State went on a 9-1 SU run in a 10-game stretch with the lone loss coming on the road to IPFW before losing to Cleveland State and home and Milwaukee on the road in their last two games coming in.  That assures the Penguins will not have a letdown today as they'll be motivated to bounce back from those two consecutive losses.  Bet Youngstown State Sunday.

15* WCC PLAY OF THE DAY on Santa Clara +15.5

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Bulldogs are shockingly 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are consistently laying too many points, and that's the case again tonight.

Gonzaga is coming off a 97-89 (OT) road loss at Oregon State as 9-point favorites on Thursday.  The Bulldogs will be on tired legs after having just one day to recover in between games.

I love the spot for Santa Clara.  After winning three straight games including impressive wins over Oregon State and San Francisco by 23, they were in a sandwich spot.  They lost outright at Loyola-Marymount as 4.5-point favorites on Thursday.  They were clearly looking ahead to this game against Gonzaga.

In nine road/neutral games, the Broncos have just one loss by more than 7 points.  They beat Saint Louis, TCU and Bradley on neutrals, pulled the upset of McNeese State and only lost by 3 at San Francisco.  They will hang within the number today.  Bet Santa Clara Saturday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico State +7.5

The books and the betting public continue to underestimate the New Mexico State Aggies.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the country going 8-1 SU in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming on the road to Texas.

The 89-83 win at New Mexico as 20-point underdogs prior to the Texas loss should have let everyone know this team is legit.  The Aggies have reeled off seven consecutive victories since that Texas loss with four of them coming by 28 points or more.  That includes a 30-point win over LA Tech as 2-point dogs and a 28-point win at UTEP as 7-point dogs.

Speaking of LA Tech and UTEP, Liberty is coming off consecutive losses to both of them to give these teams two common opponents.  The Flames lost at LA Tech as 1-point favorites and at home to UTEP as 2-point favorites.  They should not be laying 7.5 points to a Aggies team that will likely win this game outright today.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Drake/Indiana State OVER 142.5

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Sycamores are 12-2 OVER in their last 14 games overall. In those 14 lined games, they have combined for at least 157 or more points with their opponents in 13 of them.  

That makes for a 13-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 142.5-point total.  So this total of 142.5 is low for a game involving the Sycamores right now.  Indiana State ranks 5th in adjusted tempo and 304th in adjusted defense.

While Drake likes to play much slower, Indiana State will control the tempo playing at home.  The Sycamores gave up 118 points to Bradley in regulation in their last game, and Drake is in line for its best offensive output of the season today to carry the way in us cashing this OVER 142.5 ticket.  

Drake and Indiana State have combined for 164, 142 and 165 points in their last three meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on San Jose State +13.5

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated.  The Spartans have gone 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally got a reprieve with a 69-62 win at Air Force. They parlayed that win in with a 71-70 upset win as 9.5-point home dogs to New Mexico last time out.  That was the Lobos' only loss in their last eight games against a very tough schedule.

While San Jose State is grossly underrated, Nevada is grossly overrated.  The Wolf Pack have gone 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming at Fresno in OT as 12.5-point favorites and against Air Force by 6 as 19.5-point home favorites.  They were also upset by both Colorado State and Utah State at home, and Wyoming on the road.  They have no business being 13.5-point favorites here.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Oral Roberts/South Dakota State OVER 160

South Dakota State likes to play fast ranking 79th in adjusted tempo.  The Jackrabbits are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 159 or more combined points in five of their last six games.  They are coming off a 109-73 home win over North Dakota for 182 combined points.

Oral Roberts also likes to play fast and plays zero defense.  The Golden Eagles rank 120th in adjusted tempo and 360th in adjusted defense.  The OVER is 5-0 in Golden Eagles' last five games overall with 160 or more combined points in four of those five games, and 157 in the other.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on West Virginia +7

The Iowa State Cyclones are in the ultimate letdown spot.  After escaping with a 85-84 (OT) road win at Texas Tech, the Cyclones came back home and took down their biggest rivals in the Kansas Jayhawks 74-57 on Wednesday.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat West Virginia today, and I expect them to come out flat.

The Mountaineers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  First-year head coach Darian DeVries parlayed his success at Drake into the job in Morgantown.  And he is already winning getting the Mountaineers to 12-4 SU & 10-6 ATS this season.

That includes 8-1 SU at home where the Mountaineers have beaten Oklahoma State by 19 and Georgetown by 13.  They have also gone on the road and beaten Gonzaga and Arizona on a neutral, as well as Kansas and Colorado outright in true road games as underdogs.  This team is much better than they get credit for.  

The Mountaineers are 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Cyclones as they clearly have their number.  That includes 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings as Morgantown is one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the country.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Notre Dame -3

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  After opening 4-1 this season, the Fighting Irish lost their best player in Markus Burton (19.0 PPG).  They promptly lost their next five games.

It's no surprise that since getting Burton back in the lineup, the Fighting Irish have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost by 1 against UNC, by 1 at NC State and by 8 at Duke before crushing Boston College by 18.  They remain undervalued as only 3-point road favorites over Syracuse today.

Notre Dame beat Syracuse 69-64 at home in their first meeting this season despite not having Burton.  Having him back will allow them to complete the season sweep with ease today.  This is a struggling Syracuse team that is 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall.  

Forward Donnie Freeman (13.4 PPG, 7.9 RPG) is questionable for the Orange today.  Freeman had 20 points and 11 rebounds in that first meeting with the Fighting Irish.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on North Dakota State/South Dakota OVER 170

The South Dakota Coyotes are a dead nuts OVER team going 14-1 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 3rd in adjusted tempo, 97th in adjusted offense and 355th in adjusted defense.

Two games back the Coyotes lost 119-104 in regulation at St. Thomas for 223 combined points.  They have combined for at least 174 points with their opponents in five of their last six games.

While North Dakota State likes to play slow, South Dakota will control the tempo playing at home.  The Bison are 39th in adjusted offense and 277th in adjusted defense.  They still profile as an OVER team going 12-5 OVER in all games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on SMU -5

The Miami Hurricanes are a complete dumpster fire.  Head coach Jim Laranaga resigned after a 4-8 start.  The Hurricanes went on to lose their next five games without him to fall to 4-13 SU & 3-14 ATS this season.

Worse yet, Miami has gone 1-13 SU in its last 14 games overall which includes upset home losses to Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern as massive favorites.  The Hurricanes are already on 'quit watch' and we just started ACC play.

SMU is 13-4 this season with the four losses coming to UNC, Duke, Mississippi State and Butler.  Three of those are among the best teams in the country.  The Mustangs have pretty much handled the teams they are supposed to, and I fully expect them to handle the Hurricanes today.  Bet SMU Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Arizona/Texas Tech OVER 150.5

Arizona is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 51st in adjusted tempo, 59th in average length of offensive possession and 16th in offensive efficiency.  They like to play fast and they do it efficiently.  They are scoring 84.2 points per game this season.

Texas Tech doesn't play fast, but they are super efficient on offense.  The Red Raiders rank 10th in offensive efficiency, 7th in effective FG percentage and 8th in 3-point shooting percentage.  They score 83.9 points per game and are 10-5 OVER in all games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Xavier +10

I love this spot in conference play.  I love revenge-minded underdogs on the road after losing at home to their opponent in their first meeting this season.  Xavier fits the bill after losing 72-70 at home to Marquette as 4.5-point dogs on December 21st.  Now the Musketeers are catching a whopping 10 points in the rematch, and it's too much.

What makes me like this value even more is the fact that Xavier was without its best player in Zach Freemantle (16.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG) in that first meeting with Marquette.  Having him back healthy for the rematch will make a huge difference.

The Golden Eagles have been living on the edge here of late and have gone 6-1 SU but just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They beat DePaul by 2, Georgetown by 8, Creighton by and Xavier by 2 during this stretch.  Their luck may run out today, and asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Xavier Saturday.

15* K-State/Kansas CBS ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 139.5

Kansas is a dead nuts UNDER team. The UNDER is 14-0 in Jayhawks last 14 games overall with 137 or fewer combined points in each of their last five Big 12 games.  They rank 3rd in adjusted defense and 347th in average length of defensive possession, so they make opponents really work to get a shot up.

Kansas State is a better defensive team than offensive team.  The Wildcats also make opponents work ranking 284th in average length of possession on defense.  The UNDER is 5-1 in K-State last six games overall with 137 or fewer combined points in five of them.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia +6.5

The Auburn Tigers are the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  We are seeing that as the Tigers have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

Now Auburn just lost its best player in Johni Broome (17.9 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 2.7 BPG) to injury and he is out for this game.  They lost him in their narrow 66-63 win as 16.5-point favorites at South Carolina two games ago.  They were able to get by at home against Mississippi State in their next game thanks to shooting 55% and holding the Bulldogs to 34.9%.

But now the Tigers go on the road without Broome for the first time this season.  And they face one of the most improved teams in the country in Georgia, which is 14-3 SU this season.  That includes a perfect 11-0 SU at home where they have wins over the likes of Notre Dame by 21, Kentucky by 13 and Oklahoma by 12.  Bet Georgia Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on George Washington +9.5

George Washington is one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Colonials have gone 13-4 SU this season.  They pulled the outright upsets in two of their last three beating Dayton by 20 as 9-point home dogs and Rhode Island by 8 as 6-point road dogs.

Speaking of Dayton, George Mason just pulled the upset by 8 at Dayton as 7.5-point dogs last time out.  I think this is a letdown spot for the Patriots, who have another big game on deck against St. Bonaventure on the road.  The Patriots failed to cover in each of their last two home games beating Richmond by 6 as 12-point favorites and UMass by 7 as 11-point favorites.  Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet George Washington Saturday.

15* Creighton/UConn FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 148

UConn ranks 325th in adjusted tempo and 311th in average length of offensive possession.  The Huskies profile as an UNDER team, especially since they are without second-leading scorer Liam McNeely (13.6 PPG) right now.  The Huskies have scored and allowed 68 or fewer points in each of their last two games without McNeely.

The Creighton Bluejays lost Pop Isaacs (16.3 PPG) earlier this season.  They have had to rely more on defense since losing him.  The Bluejays rank 43rd in adjusted defense and they have allowed 65 or fewer points in four of their last nine games.

The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings with 129 or fewer combined points in seven of those eight meetings.  The Huskies and Bluejays have combined for 140 or fewer points at the end of regulation in nine of their last 10 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Houston/UCF Big 12 Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 137.5

UCF is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Knights rank 40th in adjusted tempo, 31st in average length of offensive possession and 61st in offensive efficiency.  They will control the tempo playing at home against the Houston Cougars today.

The OVER is 11-3 in UCF's last 14 games overall.  The Knights and their opponents have combined for at least 149 points in 11 of those 14 games.

The Houston Cougars have played four of their last five Big 12 games against teams that profile as under teams.  They did go for 141 combined points with BYU, which is the one team that doesn't.  They also went for 144 combined points with Kansas State.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Boise State/New Mexico FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 151.5

New Mexico is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Lobos rank 8th in adjusted tempo and 5th in average length of possession on offense.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight against Boise State.

The Broncos are an elite offensive team that has taken a big step back defensively this season.  They rank 29th in adjusted offense and 88th in adjusted defense.  This profiles as a shootout tonight in the first meeting between the Lobos and Broncos this season.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Boise State and New Mexico with 159 or more combined points in four of the five meetings.  In two regular season meetings last season, they combined for 166 and 168 points.  

Their 3rd meeting last season in the MWC Tournament was the only game that went under, but that was played on a neutral in an unfamiliar shooting background.  And boy did they struggle shooting as Boise State shot 20-of-68 (29%) from the field while New Mexico shot 5-of-20 (25%) from 3 and 15-of-24 (62%) from the FT line.  That's not going to happen again.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Grizzlies/Spurs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 239.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The Mavericks and Spurs will be meeting for a 2nd time in 3 days in San Antonio tonight.  The first went over the total of 239.5 with a 129-115 victory by Memphis.  I expect the rematch to be much lower scoring.

Memphis shot 50% as a team including 42% from 3-point range in that first meeting.  San Antonio shot decent too at 45% overall and 37% from 3.  I suspect the shots won't come as easy now that these teams know how to defend one another.

It's worth noting JA Morant is questionable with a foot injury after going for 21 points and 12 assists in that first meeting.  If he doesn't play this total will crater, and I still like the UNDER even if he does.

That was a rare shootout in this series between the Grizzlies and Spurs.  In fact, the previous three meetings saw 187, 196 and 204 combined points.  These teams have combined for 228 or fewer points at the end of regulation in four of their last five meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Bulls OVER 235.5

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  The Charlotte Hornets play a lot faster and are a lot more efficient on offense when La'Melo Ball (29.6 PPG, 7.5 APG) is on the court.  

Well, Ball is healthy and in the lineup now.  The Hornets went OVER the total in each of their last two games combining for 233 points with Phoenix and 229 with Utah, which was a depleted Utah team.

The Bulls are also getting healthy on the injury front with Coby White (18.5 PPG), Josh Giddey (11.6 PPG, 6.8 APG) and Ayo Dosunmu (12.5 PPG, 4.7 APG) all expected to play tonight.  And Lonzo Ball is healthy now and will get to face his brother tonight, which should be fireworks.

I nearly stayed off this total because the last seven meetings between the Bulls and Hornets have all stayed under this total.  But amazingly, La'Melo Ball didn't play in any of those seven games as he was not healthy.  With the Bulls' shift in offensive philosophy this season to play faster and shoot more 3's, this meeting with Ball in the lineup will be much higher scoring.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +11.5

The Toronto Raptors are healthy right now with the exception of Immanuel Quickley.  They have managed to win their last two games without him pulling the 104-101 upset as 5.5-point home dogs to Golden State and the 110-97 upset as 14.5-point home dogs to Boston.

The Raptors avenged an earlier blowout loss to the Celtics in their previous meeting, and now they'll be looking to avenge a 128-104 loss to the Bucks in their last meeting on January 6th.  I like them to stay within this inflated number tonight.

The Bucks are getting a lot of respect now after two blowout home wins over Sacramento and Orlando as short favorites.  They have won five of their last six games overall.  I don't see them being all that motivated to beat the Raptors again, and this is a clear letdown spot for them tonight.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on St. Joe's +2

St. Joe's returned home from two straight tough road losses at Saint Louis and at Duquesne and responded with a 93-57 blowout of Loyola-Chicago as 5-point favorites on Saturday.  They reeled off their 4th consecutive blowout home win with three of them coming by 18 points or more.  They also beat Villanova at home earlier this season.

Now the Hawks have had the last five days off and will be fresh and prepared to take down VCU tonight.  The Rams don't have the same luxury after beating Saint Louis at home on Tuesday.  They have only had two days off to get ready for this game and with travel involved.

VCU is 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in true road games this season with their lone win coming against that bad Loyola-Chicago team that St. Joe's beat by 36.  They lost by 7 at New Mexico as 4-point dogs and by 2 at St. Bonaventure as 2-point favorites.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet St. Joe's Friday.

20* Gonzaga/Oregon State CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +10

The Oregon State Beavers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 13-5 SU & 13-4 ATS this season.  Three of the five losses came by 3 points or fewer to Oregon, North Texas and Santa Clara with two of those on the road.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Bulldogs are shockingly 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are consistently laying too many points, and that's the case again tonight.  Bet Oregon State Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -6.5

The Los Angeles Clippers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But it's no big deal considering they blasted the Nets 126-67 at home for the largest blowout of the season.

Because of the blowout, the Clippers will still be fresh considering all five starters played less than 24 minutes.  This will also be the just 3rd game in 8 days for the Clippers, so they should still be fresh and ready to go.

The Blazers are 2-6 SU in their last eight games.  Their last two were very concerning as they lost by 18 at home to that same Nets team, and by 21 at home to Miami.  Injuries are starting to pile up for the Blazers as they are without Grant, Clingan and Tybulle.  Now Avdija is out, and he has been huge for them scoring at least 14 points in nine of his last 10 games.  He sat out that 132-114 loss to the Nets.

The Clippers own the Blazers going 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings with the lone loss coming by a single point.  That includes a 127-105 home win by the Clippers in their most recent meeting on December 3rd.  I expect them to win with room to spare again tonight.  Bet the Clippers Thursday.

20* Rockets/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 224

The Sacramento Kings just got De'Aaron Fox back from injury and they are a dead nuts OVER team with him in the lineup.  Now they should get Malik Monk back as well, and all of their important players are healthy for this showdown with the Houston Rockets.

The OVER is 5-1 in Kings last six games overall with 228 or more combined points in five of those six games.  They just combined for 245 points with Milwaukee last time out and 243 with Chicago the game prior.

The OVER is 4-0-1 in Rockets last five games overall with 234 or more combined points in all five games.  They Rockets are without one of their best defenders in Jabari Smith, and Amen Thompson is getting a lot more minutes in his place and it's an upgrade on offense.

The Rockets have scored at least 119 points in five consecutive games.  The Kings have scored at least 113 points in nine of their last 11 games.  The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with 231 or more combined points in seven of them, and 239 or more in six of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Northwestern ML +105

I love the spot for Northwestern tonight.  The Wildcats will be highly motivated for a victory off three straight losses against a brutal schedule.  They lost road games at Penn State and Purdue before a home loss to Michigan State, falling to 8-1 SU at home this season.  They beat Illinois at home earlier this season.

Maryland is coming off consecutive home wins over UCLA and Minnesota.  Now the Terrapins hit the road where they are 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in true road games this season, losing at Purdue, at Oregon and at Washington.  They should not be favored on the road against the Wildcats tonight.

Northwestern has a big rest and preparation advantage.  The Wildcats have had the last three days off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 11 days.  The Terrapins have only had the last two days off and will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days.  Bet Northwestern on the Money Line Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on North Dakota/South Dakota State OVER 155.5

The North Dakota Fighting Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 12-4 OVER in all games this season.  The OVER is 9-1 in their last 10 lined games with 155 or more combined points in nine of the 10, including 162 or more combined points in six consecutive games.  They rank 345th in adjusted defense.

North Dakota likes to play fast ranking 127th in adjusted tempo.  South Dakota State likes to play even faster ranking 93rd in adjusted tempo.  The Jackrabbits are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 159 or more combined points in four of their last five games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Summit League PLAY OF THE DAY on Oral Roberts/South Dakota OVER 172

The South Dakota Coyotes are a dead nuts OVER team going 13-1 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 7th in adjusted tempo, 89th in adjusted offense and 357th in adjusted defense.

The Coyotes are coming off a 119-104 loss in regulation at St. Thomas for 223 combined points.  They have combined for at least 175 points with their opponents in four of their last five games.

Oral Roberts also likes to play fast and plays zero defense.  The Golden Eagles rank 131st in adjusted tempo and 360th in adjusted defense.  So these are two of the worst eight teams in the entire country defensively.  Points will be plentiful.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple +8.5

This is exactly the type of game Memphis loses outright.  They are riding a four-game winning streak, but their last two games they were fortunate to escape with victories.  They won by 4 as 7.5-point home favorites over North Texas and then by 4 as 12.5-point home favorites over East Carolina.

Now their luck may run out tonight as they hit the road to face a Temple team that is vastly improved this season.  The Owls are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall beating Buffalo by 20 as 14.5-point home favorites, Wichita State by 6 as 1-point home favorites and Rice by 3 as 1-point road dogs.  Their lone loss came by 1 as 3-point dogs at East Carolina.

Temple is 2-0-1 ATS in its last three meetings with Memphis.  They lost by 7 as 9-point dogs and by 2 as 5.5-point dogs in their last two home meetings in this series.  I think they can take the Tigers to the wire again tonight at home where they are 6-0 SU this season.  Bet Temple Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Charlotte Hornets -5

The Charlotte Hornets recently got both La'Melo Ball and Brandon Miller back from injury.  Those two are huge for them as Ball averages 30 points and over 7 assists per game while Miler averages 21 points per game. 

The Hornets have gone 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall. They pulled the outright upset over the Suns and also took the Suns to the wire on the road in their last two games.

But this is as much a play against the Utah Jazz as anything. The Jazz will be without their top five scorers in Markkanen, Sexton, Collins, Clarkson and George Wednesday.  Those five all average at least 15.6 points per game and combine to average nearly 88 points per game.

That's a lot of production lost.  I don't see how they can keep this game competitive tonight without all these guys.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Jazz UNDER 221

The Utah Jazz will be without their top five scorers in Markkanen, Sexton, Collins, Clarkson and George Wednesday.  Those five all average at least 15.6 points per game and combine to average nearly 88 points per game.  That's a lot of production lost, and the Jazz will struggle offensively tonight.

The UNDER is 8-1 in Hornets last nine games overall with 223 or fewer combined points in eight of those nine games.  The Jazz and their opponents have gone for 220 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in four of their last five games, including 204 or fewer combined points in three of them.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Rhode Island +5.5

Loyola-Chicago is the most overrated team in the Atlantic 10.  The Ramblers 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  The wins weren't impressive as they came by 2 as 10.5-point favorites over USF, by 12 as 24-point favorites over Canisius and by 11 at lowly La Salle.

They suffered three outright upset losses, and against the best teams they faced they lost by 10 on a neutral to San Francisco, by 19 at home to VCU and by 36 at Saint Joseph's in their last game over the weekend.

Rhode Island is 13-3 this season.  Two of the three losses came against two of the better teams in the Atlantic 10 in Duquesne and George Washington.  They have upset wins over Providence and George Mason.

The Rams are better everywhere when you look at the metrics, especially on defense where they are 72nd while the Ramblers are 136th.  The Ramblers are also one of the worst teams in the country in FT shooting (64.8%), which could easily come into play here.  Bet Rhode Island Wednesday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Illinois-Chicago ML -115

Illinois-Chicago is one of the most underrated teams in the Missouri Valley.  The Flames have gone 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall. They are 6-2 SU in their last eight games with 5 outright upsets, including an upset of Drake.

Their two losses came by a combined 6 points to Bradley and Belmont. Murray State is just 4-5 SU & 4-4-1 ATS in its last nine games.  But the Racers are getting some respect after winning and covering their last three games.  

I just am not a fan of Murray State head coach Steve Prohm.  I think the Racers will be fat and happy tonight heading into this game. Illinois-Chicago will be pissed off after losing basically at the buzzer to Bradley after leading that game the entire way. I look for the Flames to rebound tonight. Bet Illinois-Chicago Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Indiana State/Bradley OVER 154.5

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Sycamores are 11-2 OVER in their last 13 games overall. In those 13 lined games, they have combined for at least 157 or more points with their opponents in 12 of them.  

That makes for a 12-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 154.5-point total.  So this total of 154.5 is low for a game involving the Sycamores right now.  Indiana State ranks 8th in adjusted tempo and 285th in adjusted defense.

Bradley is a very good offensive team ranking 18th in effective FG percentage, and 3rd in 3-point percentage.  Each of the last three meetings between Bradley & Indiana State have seen 156 or more points at the end of regulation.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +12.5

The Boston Celtics have been overvalued all season after winning the NBA title last season.  They are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  In their last two games, the Celtics lost outright by 17 as 11.5-point home favorites to the Kings and only won by 1 over the Pelicans as 14.5-point home favorites.

Toronto has been much more competitive at home this season going 8-13 SU but 13-7-1 ATS.  They just upset the Warriors in their last home game.  I like them to stay within this inflated number tonight.

The Raptors haven't lost by more than 12 points in any of their last seven home meetings with Boston.  That makes for a 7-0 system backing Toronto pertaining to this 12.5-point spread.  Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Raptors OVER 229.5

The Toronto Raptors rank 9th in pace and 27th in defensive rating so they profile as an OVER team. The Raptors are fully healthy with the exception of Immanuel Quickley. They will control the tempo playing at home and push the pace.

The Celtics are also fully healthy and rank 2nd in offensive rating.  They are tough to tame on that end with all their firepower when healthy.  Boston went for 239 combined points with the Pelicans last time out.

Toronto went for 237 combined points with Detroit & 258 with Cleveland in two of their last three games.  This total just feels a little short given how healthy both teams are right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Jose State +10

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated.  The Spartans have gone 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally got a reprieve with a 69-62 win at Air Force over the weekend.

Now the Spartans have their sights set on revenge from an 83-77 loss at New Mexico in their first meeting this season on December 4th.  Now they are catching 10 points at home in the rematch and are very live underdogs.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Lobos.  They are 7-0 SU in their last seven games overall and coming off a dominant 14-point home win over San Diego State.  That sets them up for a letdown and sandwich spot with a big game against Boise State on deck.  The Lobos won't be that motivated to beat San Jose State for a 2nd time this season.  Bet San Jose State Tuesday.

20* Nuggets/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 233

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Mavericks and Nuggets.  Points will be very hard to come by in the rematch with these teams so familiar with one another as this is actually their 4th and final meeting of the season now.

The total closed 232 in that first meeting and the Nuggets won 112-101 for just 213 combined points.  The Nuggets actually shot well from the floor too at 49%, while the Mavericks shot 41% overall and 35% from 3.

No question the Mavericks could see some positive shooting regression with the chance that Kyrie Irving returns from an illness, but they are still without Luka Doncic.  I don't think the Mavs will be hitting on all cylinders offensively tonight by any means.

The Mavs have been relying on defense without their stars as the UNDER is 3-1 in their last four games overall with 228 or fewer combined points in all four games.  The UNDER is 4-2 in Nuggets last six games overall with 229 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in all six games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kings/Bucks OVER 228

The Sacramento Kings have De'Aron Fox back and healthy right now and they are rolling offensively with him in the lineup.  The OVER is 4-1 in Kings last five games overall where they have scored at least 114 points in all five games, and 123 or more in four of them.

The Milwaukee Bucks have both Giannis and Lillard healthy right now and they are the keys to their success offensively.  The Bucks are also playing well on that end averaging 116.0 points per game in their last four games.  They are coming off 246 combined points with the Knicks in their last game.

I love OVERS in these non-conference games with teams that aren't familiar with one another because it tends to favor offense over defense.  Well, the OVER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between the Kings and Bucks with 233 or more combined points in nine of those 10 games.  Enough said.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Hawks OVER 234

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 21st in defensive rating.  They will be ready to run tonight after having the last four days off, and they will control the tempo playing at home.

The Suns have the Big 3 of Durant, Booker and Beal healthy right now and they thrive on offense when that's the case.  The Suns have scored 120, 114 and 123 points in their last three games coming in.  But this is a poor defensive team ranking 22nd in defensive rating this season.

The OVER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between the Hawks and Suns.  They have combined for 238, 243 and 249 points in their last three meetings, and 232 or more points in nine of their last 11 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Ole Miss/Alabama ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on OVER 162.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 2nd in adjusted tempo, 6th in average length of offensive possession and 2nd in offensive efficiency this season.  They play fast and they do it as efficiently as anyone in the country.

Alabama is coming off a 94-88 win at Texas A&M for 182 combined points.  In tehir last two home games, the Crimson Tide won 107-79 over Oklahoma for 186 combined points and 105-82 over South Dakota State for 187 combined points.

Ole Miss has gone under the total in seven of their last eight games, which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  The Rebels rank 31st in offensive efficiency and have the ability to keep up with Alabama in a shootout.  They rank 94th in average length of offensive possession so they like to get shots up quickly, too.

In their lone meeting last season, Alabama beat Ole Miss 103-88 for 191 combined points.  It will be more of the same in their first meeting of the 2024-25 season tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Texas A&M/Kentucky ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 158

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 30th in adjusted tempo, 27th in average length of possession on offense and 3rd in offensive efficiency.  They are averaging 89.2 points per game this season.

Texas A&M is one of the most improved offensive teams in the country this season.  The Aggies rank 29th in adjusted offense and they are playing faster ranking 130th in average length of offensive possession.

The Aggies lost 94-88 at home to Alabama for 182 combined points and won 80-78 at Oklahoma for 158 combined points in their last two games despite being without Wade Taylor, who is likely out again tonight.

Kentucky is coming off a 95-90 win at Mississippi State for 185 combined points.  The Wildcats beat Florida 106-100 in their last home game for 206 combined points in regulation.  

Texas A&M beat Kentucky 97-87 in their last meeting last season for 184 combined points.  They combined for 178 points at the end of regulation in their previous meeting last season.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis +10

It was going to take some time for the Saint Louis Billikens to gel as a team.  They have a first-year head coach in Josh Schertz from Indiana State bringing over his best transfers to pair with what was left over for the Billikens.

After opening 7-6 SU & 2-9 ATS, the Billikens have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall and have gelled in a big way.  They beat Fordham 88-63 as a PK on the road, beat Saint Joseph's 73-57 as 2-point home favorites and beat St. Bonaventure 73-68 as 3.5-point home favorites.

Now the Billikens have had the last five days off and will be fresh and ready to give VCU a run for its money as double-digit underdogs tonight.  VCU recently lost to that same St. Bonaventure team and only beat Fordham by 12 at home while Saint Louis beat them by 25 on the road.  That gives these teams some recent common opponents and shows the Billikens are playing the better basketball right now.  Bet St. Louis Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State +8

The Auburn Tigers just lost their best player in Johni Broome (17.9 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 2.7 BPG) to injury in their last game.  They struggled to get by a very bad South Carolina team 66-63 as 16-point favorites.  Broom is out again tonight, and the Tigers are on upset alert without him.

Mississippi State (14-2) is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Bulldogs rank 16th in offensive efficiency and 39th in defensive efficiency.  They have very few weaknesses.

The Bulldogs have actually played their best basketball on the road going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in true road games this season.  They beat SMU 84-79 as 1.5-point road favorites, beat Memphis 79-66 as 2-point road favorites and topped Vanderbilt 76-64 as 2-point road favorites.  They should not be 8-point underdogs tonight without Broome.  

This has been a tightly-contested rivalry with eight of the last 10 meetings either decided in OT or by 8 points or fewer.  Bet Mississippi State Tuesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY in Villanova/Xavier UNDER 146

Villanova is a dead nuts UNDER team and has been for years.  The Wildcats rank 348th out of 364 teams in adjusted tempo.  They are 327th in average length of possession on offense and 322nd on defense.

The Xavier Musketeers are a much improved defensive team this season.  They rank 61st in adjusted defense.  They make opponents work to get shots ranking 312th in average length of possession on defense.

The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings and would be 9-1 in the last 10 meetings if not for OT.  Villanova and Xavier have combined for 131 or fewer points at the end of regulation in nine of the last 10 meetings.  That makes for a 9-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 146-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies/Rockets OVER 235.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating despite battling injuries all season.  But now Morant, Jackson Jr. and Bane are all healthy and they are without one of their best defenders in Marcus Smart, making them even more of an OVER team.

This total of 235.5 is very low for a game involving the Grizzlies right now.  The OVER is 7-2 in Grizzlies last nine games overall with 229 or more combined points in eight of those nine games, including 234 or more in seven of them.

That 234-point effort came against the Rockets on January 9th, and now they play the Rockets again less than a week later.  But that game saw an unusual low-scoring 4th quarter with just 41 combined points in the 4th.  That's not going to happen again, and you can see the potential for this game to be even more high-scoring.

Houston shot 43% as a team in that game and 24-of-41 (59%) from the FT line as well.  Memphis shot just 31% from 3-point range and also missed 9 FT. Houston has gone for 234 or more combined points in three consecutive games now.  These teams have combined for at least 234 points in three consecutive meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Wizards OVER 222.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  The Wizards and their opponents have combined for at least 223 points in nine of their last 11 games overall.  This total of 222.5 is very low for a game involving the Wizards.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are coming off a 127-125 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, who also like to play fast like the Wizards.  They have played a brutal schedule of opposing defensive teams with six of their last nine games coming against teams that rank Top 7 in defensive rating.  Now they get a reprieve here and will hang a big number on the Wizards to lead us to cashing this OVER 222.5 ticket.

The OVER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings with 220 or more combined points in all 12 meetings, including 225 or more in 11 of their last 13 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Hornets/Suns NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 224

The Charlotte Hornets are an OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (29.9 PPG, 7.3 APG) is on the court.  He is healthy and on the court right now for the Hornets, and so is Brandon Miller (21.2 PPG).  The Hornets have battled injuries all season but are about as healthy as they have been all year right now.

The Hornets also come in on four days' rest, so they have a lot of energy and will be looking to push the pace today behind Ball.  I think we are going to get a shootout with the Suns, who are also fully healthy right now with Durant, Beal, Booker and Nurkic all on the court.

The Suns have gone for 123 and 114 points in their last two games with all of these guys.  They will be looking to avenge a 115-104 loss at Charlotte on the 2nd of a back-to-back on January 7th.  It took a miracle to keep that game under the 225.5-point total.

Indeed, the Suns shot 39-of-92 (42%) from the field and 8-of-33 (24%) from 3-point range in that game while the Hornets shot 38-of-98 (39%) from the field and 13-of-47 (28%) from 3-point range.  It still saw 219 combined points.  I have to think both teams will shoot much better in the rematch as they cannot possibly shoot any worse.  It was played at a fast pace and this one will be, too.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Thunder/Wizards OVER 231

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They host an Oklahoma City Thunder team that also likes to play fast ranking 9th in pace and 7th in offensive rating.

This has been a very high-scoring series.  The OVER is a perfect 6-0 in the last six meetings with 228 or more combined points in all six meetings, including 237 or more combined points in five of those six.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Mavs UNDER 231

The Dallas Mavericks are without their two best players in Doncic (28.1 PPG) and Irving (24.3 PPG).  Points are going to be hard to come by for the Mavericks until these two return, and they are going to have to rely a lot more on defense to stay competitive.

They have done a good job of that beating the Lakers 118-97 for 215 combined points and the Blazers 117-111 for 228 combined points in their last two games without them.  The UNDER is 4-2 in Mavericks last six gmaes overall with 228 or fewer combined points in five of those six games.

The Nuggets have their three best players listed as questionable in Jokic (31.6 PPG), Murray (19.0 PPG) and Gordon (13.7 PPG) tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, so don't be surprised if any of these guys sit, especially Murray who got injured last night in a 124-105 win over the Nets for 229 combined points.  

The Nuggets and their opponents have gone for 229 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in each of their last five games.  This is an early 3:10 EST tip and these games tend to be lower scoring as NBA teams aren't used to playing this early in the day.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Big West PLAY OF THE DAY on UC-Irvine +6.5

UC-San Diego has been one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball over the last two seasons.  But this is where it has finally caught up to them as they are now being asked to lay 6.5 points to a team I believe to be better than them in UC-Irvine.

UC-Irvine is 14-2 SU & 11-4 ATS this season while UC-San Diego is 14-2 SU & 11-3 ATS this season.  This line should be much closer to PK.  These Big West teams have almost no home-court advantage, and home court is consistently given too much credit in this conference.  These teams are almost dead even power rating wise.  There's clearly value with the Anteaters tonight.  Bet UC-Irvine Saturday.

15* UCF/Arizona Big 12 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 156

This game between UCF and Arizona will see a ton of possessions as both teams like to get up shots in a hurry.  Arizona ranks 60th in adjusted tempo and 46th in average length of offensive possession while also ranking 15th in adjusted offense.  That's a potent combination as the Wildcats are averaging 84.1 points per game this season.

The UCF Knights are averaging 78.5 points per game this season.  They rank 61st in adjusted tempo and 41st in average length of offensive possession.  They scored 87 points in their last road game at Texas Tech.  I think both teams have a chance of getting in the 80's tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies/Timberwolves OVER 228.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating despite battling injuries all season.  But now Morant, Jackson Jr. and Bane are all healthy and they are without one of their best defenders in Marcus Smart, making them even more of an OVER team.

This total of 228.5 is very low for a game involving the Grizzlies right now.  The OVER is 6-2 in Grizzlies last eight games overall with 229 or more combined points in seven of those eight games, including 234 or more in six of them.

I think the books have adjusted this total down due to the Minnesota Timberwolves going under the total in each of their last three games.  But they played two dead nuts under teams in the Clippers and Magic, plus the injury-ravaged Pelicans.

The Timberwolves had gone 5-0 OVER in their previous five games against teams that have a pulse on offense.  But they also faced some great defensive teams during that stretch against Houston, Boston and OKC.  This has the making of a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Total DOMINATOR on North Dakota/Oral Roberts OVER 160

The North Dakota Fighting Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 11-4 OVER in all games this season.  The OVER is 8-1 in their last nine lined games with 155 or more combined points in eight of the nine, including 165 or more combined points in five consecutive games.  They rank 347th in adjusted defense.

Speaking of poor defensive teams, Oral Roberts ranks 360th in adjusted defense.  The Golden Eagles like to play fast.  The OVER is 3-0 in their last three games overall combining for 160 with Oklahoma State, 157 with Kansas City and a whopping 206 in regulation with North Dakota State last time out.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on South Dakota/St. Thomas OVER 168

The South Dakota Coyotes are a dead nuts OVER team going 12-1 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 8th in adjusted tempo, 111th in adjusted offense and 352nd in adjusted defense.

The St. Thomas Tommies also profile as an OVER team going 12-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are 147th in adjusted tempo and amazingly 62nd in adjusted offense despite playing in the Summit.  They are 227th in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MWC TOTAL OF THE DAY on Nevada/Fresno State OVER 147.5

After being a dead nuts UNDER team for years, the Fresno State Bulldogs got a new head coach in Vance Walberg and a new up-tempo philosophy this season.  Books have struggled to keep up with the drastic change.

Indeed, the Bulldogs are a dead nuts OVER team going 11-5 OVER in all games this season.  They are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall with 155 or more combined points in all five games.  They rank 5th in adjusted tempo this season.

Nevada is a dead nuts under team that plays at a slow tempo.  But that's why this total has been adjusted down too much.  Fresno State will control the tempo playing at home, and Nevada won't mind running with them as they'll be motivated to end a four-game losing streak and run up the score.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest -2

The Miami Hurricanes are a complete dumpster fire.  Head coach Jim Laranaga resigned after a 4-8 start.  The Hurricanes went on to lose their next three games without him to fall to 4-11 SU & 3-12 ATS this season.

Worse yet, Miami has gone 1-11 SU in its last 12 games overall which includes upset home losses to Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern as massive favorites.  The Hurricanes are already on 'quit watch' and we just started ACC play after a 15-point home loss to rival Florida State last time out.

Wake Forest is playing well going 4-1 SU in its last five games with its only loss coming at Clemson.  That includes a 10-point road win at Syracuse and an 18-point home win over NC State.  The Demon Deacons have been off for the last week and will have the rest advantage over the Hurricanes, who just lost on Wednesday at home to FSU and will only have two days in between games.

Leading scorer Nijel Pack (13.9 PPG) is out for the Hurricanes after missing their last five games, which is a big reason for their recent struggles.  Divine Ogochukwu (5.6 PPG) is questionable as well.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Suns OVER 228

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 12-4 in Jazz last 16 games overall with 236 or more combined points in 11 of those 16 games. This total of 228 is very low for a game involving the Jazz, who rank 29th in defensive rating.

The Phoenix Suns are fully healthy right now and an elite offensive team when that's the case.  But they rank 22nd in defensive rating this season.  They are coming off a 123-115 home win over the Atlanta Hawks for 238 combined points.  It should be more of the same against the Jazz tonight.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Jazz and Suns with 230 or more combined points in all six meetings.  They combined for 260 points in their last meeting this season.  Enough said.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Valparaiso +8

Valparaiso is one of the most underrated teams in the Missouri Valley this season.  The Beacons are 5-3 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The losses were as impressive as the wins during this stretch.

Valparaiso only lost by 6 as 10-point home dogs to Drake and by 6 as 14-point road dogs at Bradley.  They also upset Northern Iowa at home, and Missouri State and Western Michigan on the road during this stretch.

This is a massive letdown spot for Murray State.  The Racers are now getting a lot of respect after upsetting both Drake and Northern Iowa on the road in their last two games.  They had gone 1-5 SU & 1-4-1 ATS in their previous six games with their lone win coming by 3 over a bad Loyola-Chicago team.  They were upset by Illinois State in their last home game.  Bet Valparaiso Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Joe's -5

I love the spot for St. Joe's today hosting Loyola Chicago.  The Hawks will be highly motivated for a victory after two consecutive road losses to Saint Louis and Duquesne, which are two of the best teams in the Atlantic 10.

Now the Hawks are back home today and taking on one of the most overrated teams in all of college basketball in Loyola-Chicago.  The Ramblers are 3-5 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.

The three wins came at home against USF by 2 as 10.5-point favorites, at home against Canisius by 12 as 24-point favorites and on the road at lowly La Salle as 2-point favorites.  The losses are concerning as they were upset by Oakland, College of Charleston and Murray State and lost to VCU by 19 and San Francisco by 10.  Bet St. Joseph's Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State -1.5

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated.  The Spartans have gone 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.

After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally get a reprieve today against the worst team in the Mountain West in Air Force.

The Falcons are 3-12 SU this season.  Their three wins have come against Jacksonville State, Mercyhurt and Stony Brook.  They are legitimately one of the worst teams in all of college basketball.  They lost by 18 to Boise State, 19 to UNLV and 29 to San Diego State recently.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Illinois-Chicago ML +125

Illinois-Chicago is one of the most underrated teams in the Missouri Valley this season.  The Flames are 11-5 SU & 9-4 ATS this season. They are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall including upset road wins over Illinois State, Seattle, Little Rock and Missouri State.

The most impressive win of the bunch was handing 12-0 Drake its first loss of the season in a 74-70 upset home win as 6-point dogs.  That gives these teams a recent common opponent as Bradley just lost 64-57 as 2-point home favorites to Drake.

It's been a bad stretch for the overrated Braves who are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They only beat Valpo by 6 as 14-point home favorites, Indiana State by 1 as 3.5-point road favorites and Missouri State by 9 as 11.5-point home favorites.  The Flames just beat Missouri State by 17 on the road last game.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Illinois-Chicago on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon Total DOMINATOR on North Dakota State/Denver OVER 155.5

North Dakota State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bison are 12-3 OVER in all games this season and scoring 82.6 points per game.  They are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall with 154 or more combined points in all five games, including 160 or more in four of them.

What makes them such an OVER team is that they rank 30th in adjusted offense and 324th in adjusted defense.  They take on a Denver team that ranks 355th in adjusted defense.  So don't expect either team to be getting many stops here.

Denver is 5-0 OVER in its lat five games overall with 157 or more combined points in all five games.  This total is too short today folks.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Iowa State/Texas Tech Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Texas Tech ML -125

This is the classic unranked team favored over the ranked team, and not just any ranked team but the No. 3 team in the country in Iowa State.  The Texas Tech Red Raiders are favored for good reason at home today.

Texas Tech just got Toppin back in the lineup and is at full strength.  The Red Raiders promptly went on the road and crushed Utah 93-65 and upset BYU 72-67 in their last two games coming in.

Iowa State only beat Utah by 23 at home in its last game while Texas Tech beat Utah by 28 on the road to give these teams a common opponent.  This will be by far Iowa State's toughest road game of the season after winning by 9 at Iowa and by 10 at Colorado in its previous two road games.  This is a big step up in class for the Cyclones here.  Bet Texas Tech on the Money Line Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgetown +5

What more does Georgetown have to do to get some respect? The Hoyas are one of the most improved teams in the country and the books have failed to catch up to just how improved they are this season.

The Hoyas are 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The lone losses came on the road at West Virginia by 13 and at Marquette by 8 as 13.5-point dogs.  They beat Xavier by 6 and Creighton by 24 in their two Big East home games this season.

UConn finally had its lucky 8-game winning streak come to an end in their last game, losing 68-66 at Villanova.  Five of the eight wins during that streak came by 6 points or less, so they were simply fortunate in close games.

The Huskies have struggled since losing 2nd-leading scorer Liam McNeely (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) two games ago.  Prior to losing at Villanova, they only beat Providence by 3 at home as 14.5-point favorites.  The Hoyas are live underdogs today.  Bet Georgetown Saturday.

15* Big East TOTAL OF THE DAY on UConn/Georgetown UNDER 143.5

UConn ranks 318th in adjusted tempo this season playing as one of the slowest teams in all of college basketball.  The Huskies just lost 2nd-leading scorer Liam McNeely (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) two games ago and will be without him today.

The Georgetown Hoyas are improved this season but it's largely due to defense rather than offense.  The Hoyas are 119th in adjusted offense but 29th in adjusted defense.  They have been without second-leading scorer Jayden Epps (14.7 PPG) in their last couple games and he is questionable to return today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Iowa State/Texas OVER 147

The reason Iowa State is a national championship contender this season is improvement on offense.  The Cyclones are actually the 6th-most efficient offensive team in the country.  They are scoring 86.3 points per game.

Texas Tech is 8th in adjusted offense, so this is a matchup of two Top 10 offenses with a total of only 147.  The Red Raiders rank 3rd in effective FG% and 11th in 3-point percentage.  They are scoring 85.5 points per game.  The OVER is 9-4 in all Texas Tech games this season.

These teams combined for 156 points in their lone meeting last season.  This thing should sail OVER the number again.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Belmont/Indiana State OVER 170

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team going 12-2 OVER in its 14 games this season.  The Belmont Bruins are also a dead nuts OVER team going 11-4 OVER in all games this season.  This game shapes up to be one of the highest scoring games in college basketball in 2025.

Indiana State ranks 9th in adjusted tempo and 275th in adjusted defense.  Belmont ranks 29th in adjusted tempo and 251st in adjusted defense.  Both teams are much better on the offensive end than they are on defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Thunder/Knicks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on OVER 225

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They have done a 180 becoming one of the best offensive teams in the NBA while simultaneously slipping a lot on defense.  They rank 3rd in offensive rating only slightly behind the Cavs and Celtics.

The Oklahoma City Thunder rank 8th in offensive rating and like to play fast.  They are more of an OVER team right now without Alex Caruso, who is one of their best defenders but doesn't provide much on offense.  They just got in a 129-122 shootout with the Cavs last game for 251 combined points, and it will be more of the same against the Knicks tonight.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 224 or more combined points in all six meetings between the Knicks and Thunder.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Celtics OVER 229.5

Note: Fox has since been listed out since I posted this pick.  I would no longer play it.

De'Aaron Fox was seen participating in shootaround in Boston Friday.  They are an OVER team with him and an UNDER team without him.  I'm expecting him to play tonight, which is why I added this OVER 229.5

The Celtics rank 2nd in offensive rating this season only behind the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Kings rank 7th in offensive rating.  These are two of the best offensive teams in the NBA, and they are both fully healthy right now.

The Kings have scored at least 122 points in five of their last six games, and the OVER is 5-2 in their last seven games.  The Celtics are coming off three consecutive unders which are keeping this total lower than it should be.  They played the Nuggets without Jokic, the best defensive team in the NBA in the Thunder and the 3rd-best defensive team in the NBA in the Rockets during this three-game stretch.

Both teams are fresh, healthy and ready to run.  The Celtics have had the last two days off, while the Kings have had the last three days off.  I expect this game to be played at a very frenetic pace.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +6

The Utah Jazz are exactly the type of team you can make money on in the NBA.  They have a poor record but they show up to play every night.  And that has especially been the case of late as the Jazz are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with four outright upset victories.

Without Jimmy Butler, the Miami Heat have no business being 6-point road favorites over the Jazz tonight.  The Heat were 9-point home favorites over the Jazz in their first meeting this season and lost 136-100, failing to cover the spread by 45 points.

This is a very tough spot for the Heat.  They will be playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days and their 6th game in 9 days.  They had to go to double-OT against Sacramento three nights ago to add to their fatigue.  Now they have to go into altitude in Salt Lake City, and I don't expect them to handle it very well tonight.  Bet the Jazz Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Suns OVER 236.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace and 20th in defensive rating.  The Hawks and their opponents have combined for at least 230 points in eight of their last 10 games overall.

The Phoenix Suns are at full strength right now and a deadly offensive team when that's the case, which hasn't been the case for much of the season.  Booker, Beal and Durant are all healthy as are all their role players with the exception of Royce O'Neale.

The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Hawks and Suns.  They have combined for 243 and 249 points in their last two meetings, and 232 or more points in eight of their last 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Jazz OVER 221.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 12-3 in Jazz last 15 games overall with 236 or more combined points in 11 of those 15 games. This total of 221.5 is very low for a game involving the Jazz right now.  

What makes them such an OVER team is that they like to play fast while also simultaneously ranking dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  Their offense is much better when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They have scored at least 103 points in 12 consecutive games, including 120 or more in six of them.

The Miami Heat don't miss much offensively without Jimmy Butler, but they do miss him defensively.  They have had to go more small ball and they shoot a ton of 3-pointers, which makes them more of an OVER team.  They have fallen off defensively allowing 120 or more points in four of their last seven games.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  That includes 236 combined points in their first meeting this season.  They have combined for 226 or more points in seven of their last eight meetings, including 233 or more in six of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Oklahoma PK

Oklahoma (13-1) finally suffered its first loss of the season in blowout fashion at Alabama over the weekend.  You could see it coming as it was the first true road game for the Sooners against one of the best teams in the country.

But now the Sooners are back home where they are 8-0 SU this season and 22-4 SU dating back to the beginning of last season.  They take on a Texas A&M team in a letdown spot off a 20-point blowout home win over rival Texas over the weekend.

This will be just the 2nd true road game of the season for the Aggies.  They lost 64-61 at UCF as 6-point favorites in their season opener.  That's a UCF team that just lost by 51 at home to Kansas in their last game.

This will be Texas A&M's toughest test of the season.  Making matters worse for the Aggies is that they will be without their best player in leading scorer Wade Taylor (15.7 PPG, 4.8 APG).  That's a huge loss for them and it's not being factored into the line enough.  Bet Oklahoma Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +12

The Raptors have managed to stay competitive despite dealing with a plethora of injuries all season.  There is a lot of talent on this roster when fully healthy, and the Raptors are fully healthy for the first time all season tonight.

The New York Knicks are a tired team and it is showing going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost outright to the short-handed Magic last game as double-digit home favorites.  They lost by 13 at Chicago as 5.5-point favorites.

Tom Thibodeau keeps playing his starters 40-plus minutes on a nightly basis.  It is catching up to them in the injury department as both Towns and McBride are questionable to play tonight after sitting out last game.

The Knicks will be playing their 8th game in 13 days, while the Raptors will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  The Raptors will be playing with double-revenge after losing by 5 at home and by 14 on the road to the Knicks in their two meetings in December.  This number is a couple notches too high.  Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Detroit Pistons -7

The Brooklyn Nets are a dumpster fire right now.  They have already made a couple big trades and have failed to replace the players they lost.  Making matters worse is that they are without 7 key players right now, including each of their top 4 scorers.

All these injuries and lack of talent have really showed up in their last two games as the Nets lost by 29 at home to the 76ers and by 14 at home to the Pacers.  I don't expect it to go much better for them tonight.

Now they take on a Detroit Pistons team that has quietly gone 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall.  They are legit playoff contenders sitting at 18-18 on the season.  I don't expect Detroit to have a letdown here considering they have a chance to get above .500 for the first time this season.  This has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

20* Thunder/Cavs ESPN No-Brainer on Cleveland -2

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 30-4 SU this season including 18-1 SU at home.  They are the healthier, more rested team tonight in this huge matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

While the Cavs will be playing just their 3rd game in 9 days, the Thunder will be playing their 4th game in 7 days.  The Thunder are coming off a big comeback home win over the Celtics, setting them up for a big of a letdown spot here.

You won't find a tougher two-game stretch than Boston followed by Cleveland.  This is also the first road game for the Thunder after playing their last five games at home.  This will be their toughest test of the season.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Florida State +2

The Miami Hurricanes are a complete dumpster fire.  Head coach Jim Laranaga resigned after a 4-8 start.  The Hurricanes went on to lose their next two games without him to fall to 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS this season.

Worse yet, Miami has gone 1-10 SU in its last 11 games overall which includes upset home losses to Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern as massive favorites.  The Hurricanes are already on 'quit watch' and we just started ACC play.

Florida State has been undervalued going 10-4 SU & 9-5 ATS this season.  That includes 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games.  Leading scorer Nijel Pack (13.9 PPG) is a game-time decision for the Hurricanes after missing their last four games.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Florida State Wednesday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -2.5

The Bradley Braves have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The Braves went 14-3 SU at home last season and they are 8-0 SU at home this season including a win over San Francisco.  They basically just have to win this game to cover this short number against Drake tonight.

The Bulldogs have been a great story getting off to a 12-0 start this season.  But they have been overvalued since, getting upset in each of their last two games at Illinois-Chicago and at home against Murray State as double-digit favorites.  

G Isiah Jackson is questionable for Drake after missing their last game against Murray State.  He starts and plays 28 minutes per game and does a little bit of everything for the Bulldogs.  Meanwhile, Bradley is fully healthy coming into this one.

The Braves have had this game circled all offseason.  They will be playing with quadruple revenge after losing each of their last four meetings with Drake.  Their NCAA Tournament hopes were crushed with two consecutive losses the last two years to Drake in the MVC Tournament.  I expect a big effort from the Braves tonight.  Bet Bradley Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Villanova +1

The UConn Huskies have been very fortunate during their current 8-game winning streak.  Five of the eight wins have come by 6 points or less.  That includes a 3-point home win over Providence as 14.5-point favorites last time out.

A big reason the Huskies struggled to put away Providence was because they were without their 2nd-leading scorer in Liam McNeely (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) for the first time this season.  McNeely is out again tonight.

Villanova has gone 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall playing its best basketball of the season.  The two losses came by 1 on a neutral to Maryland and by 7 at Creighton.  The Wildcats are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six home games, including a 44-point blowout of DePaul last time out.

UConn only won by a single point in their trip to Villanova last season.  The Huskies aren't nearly as strong this season after winning the national title the last two years.  The Wildcats are one of the most improved teams in the country, and I think they get some revenge here.  Wrong team favored.  Bet Villanova Wednesday.

20* Celtics/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on OVER 235.5

The Denver Nuggets are without their best defender in Aaron Gordon right now.  They are a dead nuts OVER team without him having to go small ball by inserting Russell Westbrook into the starting lineup in his place.

In their last 22 games, the Nuggets and their opponents have combined for at least 229 points in 17 of them.  Here of late they have gone for 233 or more combined points in five of their last six games, including 259 with the Hawks, 253 with the Jazz, 255 with the Pistons and 284 with the Cavs.  The Nuggets rank 4th in offensive rating on the season.

The Celtics are fully healthy right now for basically the first time all season with only Derrick White listed questionable with an illness.  They are setting records for shooting 3-pointers and rank 2nd in offensive rating only behind the Cavaliers.  When fully healthy they are arguably the best offensive team in the NBA.  They will gladly go small ball to match the Nuggets tonight.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech/BYU OVER 148.5

Texas Tech is a dead nuts OVER team going 9-3-1 OVER in all games this season.  The Red Raiders are elite on offense ranking 10th in adjusted offense, 1st in effective FG percentage and 10th in 3-point percentage.  They are loaded with 3-point shooters all over the floor.  They have scored at least 76 points in 12 of their 13 games this season.

The BYU Cougars are also pretty elite on offense.  They rank 92nd in average length of possession so they get shots up quickly.  They do so efficiently ranking 29th in adjusted offense, 23rd in effective FG percentage and 62nd in 3-point percentage.

Like Texas Tech, BYU attempts a ton of 3-pointers, and thus this game will see a lot of long rebounds and easy scoring opportunities for both teams in transition.  This total is way too short when you consider Texas Tech and its opponents have combined for at least 151 points in nine of its 13 games this season.  

These teams combined for 163 points in their regular season meeting and 148 in the Big 12 Tournament last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +5.5

This is a very tough spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 108-106 win over the Los Angeles Clippers last night.  Four starters played at least 31 minutes for the Timberwolves in the win.  They haven't had two days off in a row since December 17-18.  They won't have much left in the tank for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.

The Pelicans are as healthy as they have been in a long time and now Zion Williamson makes his return tonight.  They are only for sure without Brandon Ingram.  This is a very talented roster, and a lot more talented than their 7-29 SU record would indicate.  But because they have such a poor record we are getting great value with them tonight and in the immediate future as long as they are as healthy as they are right now.

The Pelicans are coming off consecutive blowout victories over the Wizards by 12 and 12 points in a home-and-home situation.  They are rested after having yesterday off and will be playing just their 5th game in 11 days.  The spot really favors the home underdog tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Suns/Hornets OVER 222

The Charlotte Hornets have been battling injuries all season.  But they are finally pretty healthy only missing Mann and Grant Williams.  They are a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (29.8 PPG, 7.3 APG) is on the court, and he is currently healthy right now.  The Hornets also recently got Brandon Miller (21.5 PPG) back from injury.

The Suns are basically fully healthy for the first time all season.  Durant, Booker, Beal and Nurkic are all healthy.  They are brining Beal and Nurkic off the bench to help out with their depth issues, and it's working as they just upset the 76ers last night.  They are a deadly offensive team when all these guys are healthy.

The Hornets and Suns have combined for at least 225 points in four of their last six meetings with the OVER going 3-2-1.  This total of 222 is way too short for a game involving healthy Suns and Hornets teams tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Tennessee/Florida ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Florida -3

The Tennessee Vols are 14-0 and the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  Yet they are underdogs to the Florida Gators tonight.  They are underdogs for good reason as I fully expect the Gators to win and cover and hand the Vols their first loss of the season.

This will be just their 3rd true road game of the season for the Volunteers.  They beat Louisville and got past Illinois 66-64.  This is their toughest road game of the season now against a 13-1 Florida team that is highly motivated coming off its first loss of the season at Kentucky by a final of 106-100.

But now the Gators are back home where they are 7-0 this season and outscoring opponents by nearly 30 points per game.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Florida Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +3

The Chicago Bulls are fully healthy right now with the exception of Dosunmu.  They have quietly been playing some pretty good basketball here of late going 6-4 SU in their last 10 games, including a 139-126 win as 5.5-point underdogs over the Knicks last time out.  They also upset the Celtics and Bucks during this stretch.

The Bulls are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They have owned the San Antonio Spurs, going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  That includes a 139-124 win as 1.5-point dogs in San Antonio in their first meeting this season on December 5th.

I think this is a terrible spot for the San Antonio Spurs.  They are coming off a home-and-home series with the Denver Nuggets on Friday and Saturday.  After beating the Nuggets 113-110 on the road Friday, they lost 122-111 (OT) to the Nuggets at home on Saturday.  This has the makings of a flat spot for the Spurs after those two grueling games, and now playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Indiana Pacers -10

The Indiana Pacers are as healthy as they have been all season and playing their best basketball of the season as a result.  They have opened 2025 by beating the Heat by 13 on the road and the Suns by 18 at home to improve to 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Now the Pacers should make easy work of the Brooklyn Nets, who have traded away a few of their best players and are in transition.  Making matters worse for the Nets is their laundry list of injuries right now.

Indeed, the Nets have 8 players on the injury report.  They are without Bogdanovic, Melton (10.3 PPG), Thomas (24.7 PPG) and Johnson (19.5 PPG), and they could be without Russell (12.7 PPG, 5.0 APG) and Simmons (5.9 PPG, 6.9 APG), who are both questionable to play tonight.  They are basically a G League team right now.  This has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Pacers Monday.