15* Nuggets/Thunder ABC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 214

Game 7 UNDERS are 25-10 after the first round in their last 35 tries.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and the longer a series goes on the more it tends to slow down and favor defense.  That will be the case in Game 7 between the Thunder and Nuggets Sunday.

The Nuggets are going to slow it down and run everything through Jokic.  They will want the ball in their best players' hands as much as possible.  The Thunder have been playing slower in the playoffs as well, and things just haven't come as easy for Shai and company as they did in the regular season.  Look for this one to slow down to a crawl with max defensive intensity with a trip to the Western Conference Finals on the line.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Nuggets/Thunder ABC No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -7

Give the Denver Nuggets credit for forcing another Game 7.  I just think they are running out of steam now after having to go to a Game 7 for a second consecutive series, while the Oklahoma City Thunder swept the Memphis Grizzlies in the opening round and are also the deepest team in the NBA so they can handle the extra games.

While the Thunder are fully healthy, the Nuggets are falling apart.  Jamal Murray played through the flu in Game 6, and Aaron Gordon suffered a hamstring injury in Game 6 that has his status in serious doubt for Game 7.  Even if he plays he won't be anywhere near 100%, and Gordon is as important to this team as any player not named Nikola Jokic.

Let's just look at this from a line value perspective.  In their first three home meetings with the Nuggets, the Thunder closed as 10.5-point favorites in all three games.  Now they are only 7-point favorites in Game 7, which is a 3-point adjustment down.  I'll gladly take the value and back the better, more rested, healthier team at home laying the number in Game 7.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Knicks ML -135

The Boston Celtics had an inspired effort in Game 5 to stave off elimination at home.  A lot of times you see a team play well in that first game without their superstar.  They did just that after Jayson Tatum suffered a torn Achilles late in Game 4, rallying for an inspired win in Game 5.

It's also true that a team can't sustain it past one game without their best player.  And now I expect the Celtics to fall flat on their faces for a number of reasons in Game 6 on the road.  The Celtics shot 22-of-49 (45%) from 3-point range in Game 5, and that's not going to happen again on the road in Game 6.

I would give the Celtics more of a chance without Tatum is Kristaps Porzingis was healthy and playing like the star he used to be.  But that's just not the case.  Porzingis has scored a total of 21 points in five games in this series.  He has been overcome by illness, and he only played 12 minutes in Game 5.

Everything went Boston's way in Game 5, particularly a ridiculous five fouls being called on Jalen Brunson in the 3rd quarter alone.  That's not going to happen again in New York, and the Knicks won't have their superstar foul out at home.  I think the Knicks took the Celtics lightly in their first game without Tatum as well, and they won't make that same mistake again.  

Home teams up 3-2 looking to clinch in Game 6 of the NBA playoffs are 38-17 SU since 2003.  This is my favorite bet of the playoffs thus far.  Bet the Knicks on the Money Line in Game 6 Friday.

15* Thunder/Nuggets ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -4.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder closed as 7-point favorites in Denver in Game 4.  Now they are only 4.5-point favorites two games later in Game 6 in Denver.  There's clearly value on the Thunder, and there's a lot of reasons to like them to win and cover to close out this series tonight.

The Nuggets are the most tired team left in the NBA.  They had to go 7 games with the Clippers in the opening round, and now they haven't had multiple days off in a row since that series.  They have the worst bench of any remaining teams in the playoffs, and fatigue is starting to catch up with them.

We saw that play out in the 4th quarter of Game 5 as the Thunder overcame a 9-point deficit and won by 7.  Nikola Jokic couldn't have played a better game and the Nuggets still lost.  Jokic went 17-of-25 from the field finishing with 44 points and 15 rebounds.  But he got no help, and Michael Porter Jr. and his bum shoulder is a liability at this point.  Porter Jr. went 1-of-7 for 2 points in Game 5.  The only reliable option off the bench is Russell Westbrook.  Jokic played 44 minutes in Game 5 and I think he will run out of gas tonight and won't be nearly as effective.

The Thunder are the deepest team in the NBA, they swept the Grizzlies in the first round, and they remain fresh for Game 6 tonight.  They have a ton of confidence after coming up clutch down the stretch in both Games 4 and 5, and that's exactly what this team needed to get over the hump and believe they could do it.  They are the best remaining team in these playoffs and should win the title.

Home teams who are down 3-2 in a series and facing elimination when listed as an underdog are 10-31 SU & 13-28 ATS since 2003.  The Nuggets have done a good job battling through a coaching change and a lack of depth, but their run ends tonight.  Bet the Thunder in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Knicks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on New York +4.5

The New York Knicks are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their five road games in the NBA playoffs with four outright victories as underdogs.  They are very proud of this run on the road, and they want to keep that perfect record intact today with an outright victory over the Boston Celtics in Game 5 to clinch this series and advantage to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Jayson Tatum was having a huge Game 4 with 42 points when he went out with a torn Achilles late.  The Knicks took advantage and pulled away late.  Now with no Tatum, the Celtics have no business being favored over the Knicks.

Tatum is actually their best rebounder and one of their best defenders as well, so they are missing a lot more than just his offense.  Jrue Holiday and Al Horford have done nothing in this series and look like a shell of their former selves.  They combined for just 9 points in Game 4.  Porzingis clearly isn't right and had just 7 points in Game 4.  Their bench is no longer a weapon, and the Celtics know their fate is sealed without Tatum the rest of the playoffs.  Bet the Knicks in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Nuggets/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -9.5

The Denver Nuggets are running on fumes.  They had to go 7 games with the Clippers in the opening round, and they haven't had consecutive days off since.  That hurts when they are the most starter-heavy team left in the playoffs putting a ton of minutes on their starters with Russell Westbrook the only reliable option off the bench.

Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder swept the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round and are the deepest team left in the playoffs.  They have plenty left in the tank here and the advantage goes to them as this series goes on.

The Thunder grinded out a 92-87 road win in Game 4 to even this series, which was big for this young team to overcome that hurdle of winning basically a must-win game on the road.  They did so despite shooting just 36% from the field and 10-of-41 (24%) from 3-point range.  They relied on their #1 defense to get it done.

Now the Thunder are back home where they blew a double-digit lead late in Game 1 before crushing the Nuggets 149-106 in Game 2.  I think we get something more similar to that Game 2 performance here.  Their role players will play better, and they will certainly get more production from Shai and Jalen Williams who went a combined 10-of-32 from the field in Game 4 on the road.  Bet the Thunder in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* Timberwolves/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 200.5

The Golden State Warriors are a dead nuts UNDER team without Stephen Curry.  Nothing comes easy for them offensively, and they have to rely even more on one of the league's top defenses to be competitive.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and the longer a series goes on the more it favors defense.

The Warriors rank 11th of the 12 remaining playoff teams in offensive rating and 6th in defensive rating despite having Curry for the majority of the playoffs thus far.  The Warriors managed just 93 points in Game 2 in their first game without Curry and 97 points in Game 3.

But the Warriors shot 10-of-23 (43%) from 3-point range in Game 3 and that is pretty unsustainable with their current lineup.  The Timberwolves shot 13-of-34 (38%) from 3-point range in Game 3, and it still saw just 199 combined points.  So both teams shot well from 3 and it still stayed under this 200.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Monday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the better team in this series despite being down 2-1.  They easily could have won both games they lost, blowing a double-digit late in Game 1 and losing in OT in Game 3.  In between was a 149-106 blowout in Game 2 that flashed their potential.  So they have actually outscored the Nuggets by 41 points at the end of regulation in this series despite being down 2-1.

This is where I think the lack of bench hurts the Nuggets.  They had to play 7 games last series, and they haven't had more than one day off in between games since that Game 7.  This will now be an early 3:30 EST afternoon start after finishing the late game in OT on Friday night.  All five starters played at least 43 minutes for the Nuggets in Game 3.

The Thunder shot 40-of-104 (38%) from the field and 9-of-35 (26%) from 3-point range in Game 3 and still went to OT with the Nuggets.  They are clearly due some positive shooting regression, and I expect them to make the proper adjustments to come away with a win and cover in Game 4 today to even this series.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* Timberwolves/Warriors ABC ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota -4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves let the Golden State Warriors off the hook in Game 1.  Stephen Curry got injured in the 1H and they couldn't take advantage of it.  Largely due to the Warriors shooting 18-of-42 (43%) from 3-point range, which is unsustainable moving forward especially without Curry.  The Warriors came back down to earth in Game 2 as expected without Curry, going 9-of-32 (28%) from 3-point range in a 117-93 loss to the Timberwolves.

Conversely, the Timberwolves were due some positive shooting regression after going just 5-of-29 (17%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  They are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA.  They responded by going 16-of-37 (43%) from 3-point range in Game 2 and cut back on the turnovers.

Curry remains out, and thus I give the Warriors little to no chance of even keeping Game 3 competitive against the Timberwolves.  Minnesota goes from an 11-point home favorite in Game 2 at home to a 4.5-point road favorite, which is too big of an adjustment given home-court advantage really doesn't mean much in the playoffs.  It certainly isn't enough to overcome the loss of Curry, who may be the single-most important player to his team if it's not Jokic.  

Minnesota is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in its last five trips to Golden State.  Bet the Timberwolves Saturday.

20* Celtics/Knicks ABC No-Brainer on Boston -5

The New York Knicks have been the luckiest team in the NBA playoffs thus far.  Their last five wins have all come by 3 points or less.  They overcame a 20-point deficit in BOTH Game 1 and Game 2 to beat the Boston Celtics.  Their luck runs out in Game 3.

I expect to see a pissed off Celtics team that gets back to dominating the Knicks like they had previously.   They had been 8-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in their previous nine meetings with the Knicks before blowing 20-point 2H leads in Game 1 and Game 2.  They are clearly the better team at their best, and they will respond with a blowout win in Game 3.

The Celtics are due some positive shooting regression after going 25-of-100 (25%) from 3-point range through the first two games of this series.  It's impressive they have had 20-point leads in both games considering how poorly they have shot the ball.  They are 4-0 in their last four trips to New York and love playing in Madison Square Garden.  Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Thunder/Nuggets ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -4.5

The Denver Nuggets are a tired team.  They needed Game 7 to put away the Clippers, and they had just one day in between series.  They rode their momentum into a double-digit comeback win over the Thunder in Game 1 in the final minutes.  Their tired legs showed in Game 2 as they were blasted 149-106 by the Thunder.

Now they just have one day of rest in between Games 2 and 3 again.  They won't be recovered in time, and their lack of depth is really going to hurt them as this series goes on.  The Thunder showed off their impressive depth in that 149-106 win in Game 2.  Eight different players scored in double-figures.  For the Nuggets, Russell Westrbook is their only reliable weapon off the bench, and starter Michael Porter Jr. isn't giving them much as he plays through a shoulder injury.

The Thunder go from 10.5-point favorites in Game 2 to only 4.5-point favorites in Game 3.  As we've clearly seen in these playoffs, home-court advantage isn't worth that much.  This 6-point adjustment for flipping home courts is too much.  The Thunder just have all the advantages in this series as they are the fresher, deeper, better team.  I'll gladly lay 4.5 points with them in what I expect to be another blowout tonight.  Bet the Thunder in Game 3 Friday.

15* Warriors/Timberwolves TNT ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota -9.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves let the Golden State Warriors off the hook in Game 1.  Stephen Curry got injured in the 1H and they couldn't take advantage of it.  Largely due to the Warriors shooting 18-of-42 (43%) from 3-point range, which is unsustainable moving forward especially without Curry.  The Warriors will come back down to earth in Game 2.

Conversely, the Timberwolves are due some positive shooting regression after going just 5-of-29 (17%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  They are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA, and they will shoot it much better in Game 2.  They will also make the proper adjustments and come back with a sense of urgency tonight that should lead to a double-digit blowout victory in their favor.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 2 Thursday.

20* Warriors/Timberwolves TNT Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 202.5

Steph Curry got injured in the 1H of Game 1 with a hamstring injury and now has been ruled out for at least a week.  The Warriors were very reliant on Curry to produce the bulk of their offense, and now they will have to rely on defense pretty much exclusively moving forward without him.

They did a good job of it in Game 1 beating the Timberwolves 99-88 for just 187 combined points.  I expect Game 2 to be even lower scoring.  I don't expect the Warriors to shoot nearly as well from 3-point range after going 18-of-42 (43%) in Game 1.  There is a good chance this is a Minnesota blowout, which will prevent fouls in the closing minutes as well.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Thursday.

25* NBA Western Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder led the Denver Nuggets by double-digits throughout Game 1.  They let the Nuggets off the hook down the stretch and lost a stunner on a game-winner from Aaron Gordon.  They played tight down the stretch while the Nuggets were riding high off their Game 7 victory over the Clippers and rode that confidence and momentum to come back and steal Game 1.

Now I think the Nuggets are gassed and will relax in Game 2, while the Thunder will respond in a big way.  The Nuggets' lack of depth will come into play here with the quick turnaround off the big comeback and off a Game 7 the previous series.  They are getting nothing from Michael Porter Jr., who is clearly hobbled with a shoulder injury and was replaced by Russell Westbrook down the stretch.  Westbrook is the only player that gives them any production off the bench, so it's going to mess up their rotations even more without Porter Jr. being able to provide anything.

The Thunder are the deepest team in the NBA.  They are also a very resilient team.  They went 12-2 following a loss during the regular season only twice losing two games in a row, and never losing three games in a row.  I expect the Thunder to win this game by double-digits and likely by 20-plus.  Bet the Thunder in Game 2 Wednesday.

20* Knicks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Boston -9.5

The Boston Celtics were up 20 on the Knicks in Game 1 and let go of the rope.  They let the Knicks off the hook by shooting 19 of their 20 FG attempts in the 3rd quarter from 3-point range.  They went 15-of-60 (25%) from 3 for the game.  They are clearly due some positive shooting regression in Game 2, and they will attack the rim more as well.

Conversely, the Knicks are due some negative shooting regression after going 17-of-37 (46%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  I also think it's tougher for the Knicks to have to play on the quick turnaround off a OT game because they rely so much on their five starters, while the Celtics are a much deeper team.

Kristaps Porzingis didn't play in the 2H for the Celtics due to an illness, and he should be healthier tonight which would be a bonus.  Jrue Holiday returned from injury in Game 1 and played a great game with 16 points.  The Celtics are closer to full strength and much healthier than they were for the opening series against the Magic.

The Celtics own the Knicks going 8-2 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  They won their two regular season home meetings with the Knicks by 13 and 23 points, and they have won four of their last five home meetings by double-digits prior to that loss in Game 1.  Boston will respond in a big way in Game 2 tonight.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* Warriors/Timberwolves TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota -6

Teams coming off a Game 7 on less than 3 days' rest against teams that are coming off 4 or more days' rest are 5-19 SU & 8-16 ATS in their last 24 tries in the NBA playoffs.  The spot really favors the rested Timberwolves against the tired Warriors coming off a Game 7.

The Timberwolves are fully healthy and a different team in the playoffs.  They showed that last year when they made the Western Conference Finals, and they are even better this season.  They took out the Lakers in 5 games and stymied LeBron and Doncic, and now they will take care of a Golden State team that is also too reliant on two players.

The Warriors were able to get by the Rockets in 7 games.  The Rockets are one of the worst offensive teams in the playoffs and let the Warriors hang around because of it.  The Warriors improved to 5-1 on the road in winner-take-all games thanks to a 9-of-11 shooting performance from Buddy Hield from 3-point range, which was a complete aberration.

Stephen Curry played 46 minutes in that Game 7 after playing 42 minutes in Game 6.  Game 7 was on Sunday, so now the Warriors have to travel from Houston to Minnesota and won't have much left in the tank for the Timberwolves tonight.  I expect Minnesota to jump on them early and to pull away late to cover this short 6-point spread given the rest advantage.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 1 Tuesday.

20* Nuggets/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -9.5

This is a terrible spot for the Denver Nuggets in Game 1.  They are coming off a grueling 7-game series with the Los Angeles Clippers that concluded on Saturday.  Now they have to turn around and play another game on Monday with only one day of rest in between.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are rested and ready to go after sweeping the Grizzlies and being off since April 26th.

Teams coming off a Game 7 on less than 3 days' rest against teams that are coming off 4 or more days' rest in Game 1 are 4-19 SU & 7-16 ATS in their last 23 tries.  This trend totally makes sense as the team coming off a Game 7 is not only tired, but also in a letdown spot going into a new series.  The rested team has the preparation advantage as well as they would have been preparing to face either team that won in Game 7.

The Thunder are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games with all nine wins coming by 16 points or more.  I recommend playing the Thunder on some alternate lines as well up to -19.5.  Bet the Thunder in Game 1 Monday.

20* Warriors/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Houston ML -139

It's clear to me that the Houston Rockets are just the deeper team in this series and they have more cards they can play than the Warriors do.  The Warriors rely so much on Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler to do the bulk of their scoring, and Curry and Butler have both been banged up in this series with Curry battling through a thumb injury and Butler battling through a groin injury.

The Rockets have really been impressive in the last three games in this series and have made the proper adjustments.  They lost 109-106 as 3.5-point road dogs in Game 4, but responded with a 131-116 win in Game 5 at home that was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They were up 27 going into the 4th quarter and pulled their starters.  All five starters scored in double figures, and they got good performances from Green, Eason and Adams off the bench.

The Rockets backed it up by pulling the 115-107 upset as 5.5-point road dogs in Game 6 to send this series back to Houston for a Game 7.  Fred VanVleet is showing his championship pedigree by playing his best basketball of the season over the last three games to lead this young team.  Steven Adams is doing all the little things for them and had a huge Game 6 as well.

VanVleet has scored a total of 80 points while going 18-of-27 from 3-point range over the last three games.  He lives for these big moments.  Adams had 17 points and 3 blocks in Game 6.  Sengun is a problem for the Warriors, Amen Thompson is growing up quickly, and the Rockets have gotten to this position despite an 'off' playoffs thus far from their leading scorer in Jalen Green.  If they get anything close to the 38-point effort from Green in Game 2 at home in Game 7 then the Warriors stand no chance.  Bet the Rockets on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Clippers/Nuggets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles ML +105

The Los Angeles Clippers have been the better team in this series.  Two of the Nuggets' wins in this series have come by 2 in OT and by 2 at the buzzer.  This could easily be a different series, and the Clippers have been the better team despite it being tied at 3-3.

The Clippers have been a hard luck team in the playoffs in recent years due to injuries.  Well, they are finally fully healthy with their best chance to make a run.  They are a complete team getting great production from all five starters including Kawhi, Harden, Zubac and Powell.  And they also have some punch off the bench in Jones Jr., Bogdanovic and Batum, who has shown as the series goes on that he can give Nikola Jokic troubles when he's guarding him instead of Zubac, who also does a good job of keeping him in check.

The Nuggets are so reliant on Jokic and Jamal Murray.  Michael Porter Jr. is clearly compromised and playing through a shoulder injury just because it's the playoffs.  He only had 5 points in Game 6 and was a non-factor, and they really need him.  Russell Westbrook is the only player that gives the Nuggets anything off the bench as Peyton Watson and De'Andre Jordan have been non-factors.

I think it's the Nuggets that tire down the stretch of Game 7 similar to when they blew a big lead to the Timberwolves last season and lost in Game 7 at home after losing in Game 6.  This is where their lack of depth finally catches up to them in what will be a grueling Game 7.  I trust Kawhi to close the deal if it's close in the end, but I expect the Clippers to control this game from the jump.  Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Saturday.

15* Rockets/Warriors ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Houston +5.5

It's clear to me that the Houston Rockets are just the deeper team in this series and they have more cards they can play than the Warriors do.  The Warriors rely so much on Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler to do the bulk of their scoring, and asking them to win by margin in Game 6 to cover this 5.5-point spread is asking too much.

The Rockets have really been impressive in the last two games in this series and have made the proper adjustments.  They lost 109-106 as 3.5-point road dogs in Game 4, and now they are 5.5-point road dogs which is a 2-point adjustment up.

The Rockets played a gem in Game 5 winning 131-116 and this was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They were up 27 going into the 4th quarter and pulled their starters.  All five starters scored in double figures, and they got good performances from Green, Eason and Adams off the bench.  They now have a lot of confidence heading into Game 6, and this series is far from over unlike this line would indicate.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* Nuggets/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -6

I pulled the trigger on the Clippers once it dropped from the opener of -7 down to -6.  I think the value is there now, and I fully expect them to respond in a big way tonight to stave off elimination.  This will look similar to Game 3 when the Clippers won 117-83 at home.

Two of the Nuggets' wins in this series have come by 2 in OT and by 2 at the buzzer.  This could easily be a different series, and the Clippers have been the better team despite being down 3-2 in my opinion.

The Nuggets are due some regression after an outlier shooting performance at home in Game 5.  They shot 55.8% from the field an a unsustainable 17-of-33 (51.5%) from 3-point range.  There was nothing the Clippers could do.  They will make the proper adjustments for Game 6, and the Nuggets may relax knowing they have a Game 7 at home in their back pocket if necessary.  Bet the Clippers Thursday.

25* NBA Playoffs 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Pistons ML -130

The Detroit Pistons have been the better team in this series despite being down 3-2.  Their last two losses came by a combined 3 points, and they were jobbed by the refs not calling a foul on a Tim Hardaway 3-pointer at the buzzer in Game 4.  He for sure would have made at least 2 of 3 free throws.  The other loss came in Game 1 after blowing an 8-point lead in the 4th quarter.

I love how the Pistons responded in Game 5 as they easily could have folded after getting jobbed by the refs in Game 4.  Instead, they pulled the 106-103 upset as 5.5-point dogs in New York, and now they are oozing with confidence and highly motivated to give their fans a much-awaited home victory in the playoffs.  They have been waiting for one since 2008, and I expect the Pistons to deliver tonight.

The Knicks rely too much on their starters and too much on tough shot making.  It will bite them sooner rather than later.  They are getting nothing from their bench.  Josh Hart and Jalen Brunson are already banged up.  The Pistons are getting a lot from their bench in Beasley and Schroder, and Cunningham, Thompson and Harris are all delivering.

The Pistons won Game 5 despite shooting just 42.4% from the field and 8-of-29 (27.6%) from 3-point range.  So there's actually room for improvement, and I think we get their best effort in Game 6 tonight to stave off elimination.  Bet the Pistons on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Timberwolves/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5

Note: I like a Lakers/Clippers Money Line Parlay for Wednesday and Thursday at roughly even money.

The Los Angeles Lakers have let the Minnesota Timberwolves off the hook in this series.  This should be a 2-2 series but they are down 3-1, and thus have their backs against the wall in a must-win situation in Game 5.  The Timberwolves will relax a little knowing they only have to win one of their next three games to close out the Lakers, and the first close out game is always the hardest.

The Lakers played all five starters all 30 minutes in the 2H in Game 4 and they wore down late, blowing the lead and letting the Timberwolves steal a 116-113 victory.  Anthony Edwards talked about how the Lakers ran out of gas and were tired after the game, and that is going to really motivate the Lakers to come back and prove him wrong.  

The Lakers have now had the last two days off and will be fresh, pissed off and out for revenge in Game 5.  I expect them to roll.  Keep in mind Luka Doncic was battling illness in the two games in Minnesota and nearly didn't play in Game 3.  He is back to full strength now, and the Lakers are tough to tame with Doncic, James and Reaves leading the way.  Bet the Lakers Wednesday.

25* NBA Playoffs 1st Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Timberwolves/Lakers OVER 209

Both the Lakers and Timberwolves have gone more small ball the last two games.  The Lakers are hardly playing Jaxson Hayes as he has played fewer than 10 minutes in all four games.  The Timberwolves are going with Naz Reid over Rudy Gobert more often than the regular season to match up better with the Lakers.

The result has been two games flying OVER the total in their last two with 220 combined points in Game 3 and 229 combined points in Game 4.  Oddsmakers have failed to adjust up for it enough in Game 5 with this total at 209 after closing at 209 in Game 4 as well.

Keep in mind Luka Doncic was sick for Game 3 and Game 4 and now he's back to full strength.  The Lakers are a tough team to tame offensively with Doncic, James and Reaves, and the Timberwolves have more offensive punch when Reid is in the lineup over Gobert.  Bet the OVER in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles ML -122

The Clippers have clearly been the better team in this series despite it being tied 2-2.  The Clippers have outscored the Nuggets by 33 points in the four games.  They could have easily swept the Nuggets as both of Denver's wins came by exactly 2 points with one in OT and one at the buzzer.

The Clippers will take control of this series in Game 5 and are favored for good reason.  They are the deeper, more talented team.  They are fully healthy, while the Nuggets are dealing with injuries to Michael Porter Jr. and Russell Westbrook.  The Nuggets have the worst bench in the NBA left in the playoffs and it will catch up to them sooner rather than later.  They just rely so much on one player in Jokic.  Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Tuesday.

15* Pistons/Knicks TNT ANNIHILATOR on Detroit +5.5

The Detroit Pistons easily could have swept the Knicks, but instead they are down 3-1.  Their last two losses came by a combined 3 points, and they were jobbed by the refs not calling a foul on a Tim Hardaway 3-pointer at the buzzer in Game 4.  He for sure would have made at least 2 of 3 free throws, and this series would be tied 2-2.  The other loss came in Game 1 after blowing an 8-point lead in the 4th quarter.

You could argue the Pistons have been the better team in this series.  They have a nice mix of youngsters and veterans, and I trust them to show up with a big effort in Game 5 tonight.  The Knicks keep having to make difficult, contested shots especially Towns and Brunson.  They also lack depth and both factors will catch up to them sooner rather than later.  Bet the Pistons Tuesday.

20* Rockets/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Houston +4

The Houston Rockets shot 39.1% from the field and 11-of-20 (5%) from the FT line in their Game 1 loss.  They bounced back to shoot 45.3% from the field and 16-of-20 (80%) from the FT line in Game 2 in a 109-94 blowout win.

The Rockets shot 39.5% from the field and 14-of-24 (58.3%) from the FT line in Game 3.  I expect them to have some positive shooting regression in Game 4 and bounce back from their Game 3 loss just as they did in Game 2 bouncing back from their Game 1 loss largely due to poor shooting.

The Warriors simply rely too much on Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler to do the bulk of their scoring.  Curry had a monster game with 36 points in Game 3 to put the Warriors on his back.  But he won't be as good in Game 4 as I expect the Rockets to make the proper adjustments to double-team him and make others beat them.  And even if Jimmy Butler plays he will be nowhere near 100%.

Jalen Green stepped up in Game 2 and scored 38 points on 13-of-25 shooting.  He was too passive in Game 3 going just 4-of-11 shooting for 9 points.  Look for him to be much more aggressive in Game 4 as he is one of the most underrated players in the NBA.  And the Rockets are just the deeper team in general and elite defensively.  Bet the Rockets in Game 4 Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Timberwolves OVER 207.5

Both the Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Lakers have shifted to more small ball as this series has gone on as those are their most effective lineups.  Jaxon Hayes only played 8 minutes for the Lakers in Game 3 while Rudy Gobert only played 25 minutes for the Timberwolves in Game 3.

The result was a 116-104 win by Minnesota that saw 220 combined points.  Oddsmakers set the total at 207.5 for Game 3, and it's 207.5 again for Game 4 as they have failed to adjust up for the adjustments that both teams are making.  There's a ton of value on the OVER 207.5 in Game 4 as a result.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Knicks/Pistons ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Detroit ML -115

The Detroit Pistons just own the New York Knicks as this is a great matchup for them.  Sure, they are down 2-1 in this series, but they took the Knicks to the wire in all three games.  They held an 8-point lead in the 4th quarter of their Game 1 loss and they only lost by 2 in Game 3 while upsetting the Knicks as 6.5-point dogs in Game 2.

The Pistons are now 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings and those two losses were obviously close.  I like the depth of the Pistons compared to that of the Knicks, who rely so much on their starters.  They got a total of 9 points off the bench in Game 3, and that will continue to be a problem for them moving forward.  The Pistons got 40 points off the bench in Game 3 to compare.  Bet the Pistons on the Money Line in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Cavs/Heat TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami +6.5

The Miami Heat ranked #1 in the NBA in net rating (+14) over the final 12 games of the regular season.  Eric Spoelstra is showing once again why is is one of the best coaches in the NBA getting the most out of another Miami Heat team.

The Heat went on the road in two must-win games and beat the Bulls by 19 and the Hawks by 9 just to make the playoffs.  They ran out of gas a little in Game 1 against Cleveland but it was still an 8-point game entering the 4th quarter before the Cavs pulled away late.

The Heat came back refreshed in Game 2 and gave the Cavs all they could handle in a 121-112 loss as 12-point underdogs.  Six different players scored in double-figures as the Heat showed off their depth, and Tyler Herro is a problem with 33 points in Game 2.

Now I expect the Heat to pull off the upset when they return home for Game 3, but I'll take the points for some insurance.  They have zero quit in them and Spoelstra will get the most out of them while also making the proper adjustments.  I expect the Cavs to relax a little, and now PG Darius Garland is questionable with with a toe injury.  Bet the Heat Saturday.

20* Celtics/Magic ESPN No-Brainer on Orlando +6

The Orlando Magic have one of the biggest home/road splits in the playoffs over the last couple seasons.  They are a much better team at home, and I expect a big effort from them in Game 3 to possibly pull off the upset over the Boston Celtics.

I like what I saw from the Magic in Game 2 as they only lost by 9 as 10.5-point dogs at Boston despite shooting just 7-of-29 (24%) from 3 and 15-of-24 (62%) from the FT line.  There is big room for improvement in both areas in Game 3.

The Celtics went 25-of-33 (76%) from the FT line in Game 2 and still only won by 9.  They were without Jayson Tatum due to a wrist injury, and there's a good chance he's out again.  I like the Magic either way.

The Magic are 5-5 SU & 6-4 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Celtics.  The Magic are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Celtics with three outright upsets.  They are also 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings.  Bet the Magic Friday.

20* Nuggets/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5

The Los Angeles Clippers blew a double-digit lead in Game 1 and were in control the entire way until the final few minutes of regulation and OT.  They responded in a big way with a win in Game 2 and really should be up 2-0 in this series.  It's clear they are the better, deeper team.

Now I expect them to take control of this series with a win and cover in Game 3 tonight.  They should get a lot more from their role players who are always more comfortable at home.  And the Nuggets just don't have any role players, plus Michael Porter Jr. injured his shoulder in Game 2 and didn't return to the game and may be out for Game 3.

That would be a big blow to the Nuggets, who just don't have any depth.  They basically play six players with only Russell Westbrook providing any significant minutes off the bench, and he can be a liability at times when he gets trigger happy.  The other three players are Watson, Pickett and Jordan who combined for a total of 5 points in 25 minutes in Game 2.

Ivaca Zubac defends Nikola Jokic as well as any big man in the NBA.  Kawhi Leonard looks like his old self and had 39 points in Game 2.  James Harden is also playing well, and Powell and Dunn are two underrated starters.  The bench of Jones Jr., Batum, Bogdanovic and Simmons provide valuable minutes.  Those four should take their games to the next level being back at home tonight.  Bet the Clippers Thursday.

15* Thunder/Grizzlies TNT ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -8.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder own the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Thunder are 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Grizzlies.  Nine of their last 10 wins have come by 13 points or more, including all six meetings this season.  They won by 51 in Game 1 and by 19 in Game 2.

The Grizzlies realize there's nothing they can do to match up with the Thunder.  The Thunder are too deep and they pull away even when their bench comes in.  The Grizzlies rely too much on Morant, Jackson and Bane to provide the bulk of their scoring because they just don't get much anywhere else.  It hurts that they lost Jaylen Wells to a season-ending injury to boot.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

20* Warriors/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Houston -2

The Houston Rockets couldn't have played worse in Game 1 and it was still a one-possession game in the 4th quarter with the Warriors.  It was a 4-point game in the final couple minutes before the Warriors pulled away late for a 10-point victory.

Let's just look at the Rockets' miscues in Game 1 that are easily going to be better in Game 2.  The Rockets committed 16 turnovers, shot 34-of-87 (39%) from the field, 6-of-29 (21%) from 3-point range and 11-of-20 (55%) from the FT line.  I don't think it seriously could have gone worse, yet they still had a chance to win.

Now the Rockets have shaken off the rust after being out of action for a week and even longer for most their starters since they were locked in to the No. 2 seed over the last few games of the regular season.  I expect the Rockets to fire back with a big effort in Game 2 and shoot it much better, while still playing a level of defense that is as good as anyone in the NBA.  The Warriors will relax after taking Game 1.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Lakers OVER 210

The Timberwolves and Lakers were well on their way to cashing the OVER for us in Game 1.  All they needed was 45-plus points in the 4th quarter.  Instead, they settled for just 40 combined points in the 4th largely due to backups playing the final stretch in what was a blowout in Minnesota's favor.  That won't happen again.

The Lakers are due some positive shooting regression in Game 2 after making just 33-of-83 (40%) from the field in Game 1.  The Timberwolves won't shoot as well from 3 again, but I do expect more free throws after these teams combined for just 26 attempts in Game 1.  It is likely to be more competitive if it's not a Lakers' blowout and more free throws could come into play in the end.

Either way, this total has been adjusted down from 217 on the opener to 210 as of this writing, and that's too big of an adjustment.  The fact that these teams combined for 212 points in Game 1 with a 40-point 4th quarter alone shows there's value with the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Timberwolves/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles -5

The Minnesota Timberwolves had an outlier shooting performance in Game 1.  They hit 21-of-42 (50%) from 3-point range for the game, while the Lakers shot just 33-of-83 (40%) from the field.  It's safe to say the Lakers are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings, so that was a rare win for the road team in this series.  The Timberwolves did their part and won a game in Los Angeles, and now I expect them to relax while the Lakers play with a big sense of urgency tonight in what feels like a must-win for them.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

20* Clippers/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles ML -115

The Los Angeles Clippers controlled the entire Game 1 against the Denver Nuggets until the final few minutes of regulation and OT.  The Clippers showed they were the better team, and they have the better overall roster that will win out in Game 2 tonight.

Kawhi Leonard didn't play in any of the four regular season meetings with the Nuggets.  He had 22 points on 9-of-15 shooting in Game 1, and I fully expect him to be more aggressive in Game 2 to assure the Clippers win this game.  Zubac had 21 points and 13 rebounds and is one of the best possible defenders in the league for Nikola Jokic.  Harden had 32 points, and I love Powell.

The Nuggets attempted 11 more FT than the Clippers in Game 1 and that was a big difference.  The Clippers showed that they could take Jamal Murray out of the game with their ability to defend him.  They will gladly continue to leave Russell Westbrook open as he made just 5-of-17 attempts despite being open for almost all of them.  

The Clippers have a lot more depth than the Nuggets do as well as six players played almost all the minutes for the Nuggets in Game 1.  The Clippers have four guys who can contribute off the bench.  I have no doubt the Clippers are the better team and will get back into this series and eventually take control of it.  Bet the Clippers Monday.

15* Warriors/Rockets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston ML -115

The Golden State Warriors needed the play-in and a narrow win over the Grizzlies just to get into the playoffs.  They got huge games from Jimmy Butler and Steph Curry and were still life and death with the Grizzlies at home.  That's the problem for the Warriors is they just rely too much on two guys.  Now Jonathan Kuminga is a DNP coach's decision and not even in the rotation, which is a big mistake I think.

The Rockets may be the single-most underrated team headed into the playoffs.  They earned the No. 2 seed in the West thanks to being a Top 5 defense and a better offensive team than they get credit for.  I love Amen Thompson, who is the best guard in the league to defend Steph Curry.  He learned a lot in four matchups and will be on Curry like glue.  The Rockets take Game 1 tonight.  Bet the Rockets Sunday.

15* Heat/Cavs TNT ANNIHILATOR on Miami +12.5

The Miami Heat actually ranked No. 1 in the entire NBA in net rating (+14) over the final 12 games of the regular season.  They carried over that positive momentum becoming the first No. 10 seed to make the playoffs since the play-in was introduced.  They did so by going on the road in both games upsetting the Bulls 109-90 in regulation and the Hawks 123-114 (OT).

I think they keep the momentum in Game 1 of this series against the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Cavaliers could have some rust factor especially after resting starters down the stretch of the regular season and being off since April 13th for a full week, which is more when you factor in the rest.

The Heat are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Cavaliers, so they clearly match up well with them.  This game will be much closer than the spread suggests.  Bet the Heat Sunday.

20* Magic/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Orlando +14

The Orlando Magic played their best basketball of the season down the stretch to secure the 7th seed and a home game in the play-in.  The Magic went 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their final five games in which they played their starters, and then went on to crush the Hawks 120-95 as 6-point home favorites in the play-in.

I like the fact that the Magic have that playoff feel already in their veins and they thrived against the Hawks.  I think they carry that momentum into this game with the Celtics, who are fat and happy after winning the NBA Title last season.  The Celtics could also show plenty of rust in Game 1 after being off since April 13th which was a week ago.  They also rested starters down the stretch, so rust will be a factor.  

The Magic are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Celtics with five outright upsets.  Bet the Magic Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Thunder OVER 225

Two dead nuts OVER teams that like to play fast square off in this series.  The Grizzlies rank 1st in pace while the Thunder rank 5th.  The Thunder and Grizzlies have combined for at least 229 points in four of their last five meetings.  This total of 225 is too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Grizzlies/Thunder ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -12.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 68-15 SU & 55-24-4 ATS this season with almost all their wins coming by double-digits.  The Thunder are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four meetings with the Grizzlies this season with all four wins coming by 13 points or more.  

The Thunder are champing at the bit to prove their are the best team in the NBA starting with Game 1 of this series.  The Grizzlies could relax a little after needing two play-in games just to make the playoffs after beating the Mavs on Friday night.  Now they have a quick turnaround for an early 1:00 EST start Sunday and won't be ready.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Lakers OVER 216

In their lone game with Luka Doncic facing the Timberwolves this season, the Lakers won 111-102 at home.  But that game should have seen a lot more than 213 combined points when you look at the box score.

The Timberwolves shot just 42% as a team and 12-of-41 (29%) from 3-point range.  The Lakers shot just 41% as a team including 11-of-41 (27%) from 3-point range.  So we only need marginal better shooting to easily eclipse this 216-point total in the rematch in Game 1 of this series.  

The Lakers and their opponents have combined for 224 or more points in 10 of their last 12 games in which they were trying to win.  They really profile as an OVER team having to play more small ball with only Jaxon Hayes as their lone decent big man.  The Timberwolves and their opponents have combined for at least 221 points in 12 of their last 15 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Timberwolves/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Los Angeles -4

JJ Redick has done a tremendous job putting all the pieces together since the Luka Doncic trade.  The Lakers climbed their way up to the No. 3 seed in the West by going 7-3 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in their final 10 games in which they were trying to win, which included a 126-99 win at OKC and upset road wins at Memphis and Indiana.

The Minnesota Timberwolves proved last season they didn't have an answer for Luka Doncic when they lost to the Mavericks in the playoffs.  Now Doncic has even better sidekicks in LeBron James and Austin Reeves.  One of the more underrated aspects of the Lakers is their perimeter defenders to match up with guys like Anthony Edwards.  I think Edwards just has to do too much for this team without a true sidekick to take off some of the burden.

In their lone meeting this season in which Doncic played, the Lakers beat the Timberwolves 111-102 as 6-point home favorites.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series dating back further.  The home team went 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in four meetings this season, and the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Lakers Saturday.

20* Heat/Hawks TNT No-Brainer on Miami PK

The Miami Heat made easy work of the Chicago Bulls in a 109-90 road victory to put themselves in this position to make the playoffs.  That game at Chicago was tougher than this game at Atlanta will be as the Bulls are better than the Hawks with a better home-court advantage.

The Hawks faltered in a 120-95 road loss to the Orlando Magic to put themselves in this position of must-win.  That was a game the Hawks could afford to lose, while the Heat were in a must-win already as they were completely eliminated with a loss.  I like the mentality of this Heat team coming in.

I also like the experience and the talent on this Miami team much better than that of the Hawks.  Tyler Herro had 38 points, Andrew Wiggins had 20 points and Bam Adebayo had 15 points and 12 rebounds in that win over the Bulls.  This core 3 has a ton of playoff experience and will be up to the challenge.

The Hawks really only have Trae Young with plenty of playoff experience.  Young had 28 points and nobody else had more than 15 for the Hawks against the Magic.  He was ejected late in the game with two technical fouls as he showed his frustration, largely due to not getting much help.

The Heat are the much better defensive team ranking 9th in defensive efficiency while the Hawks rank 18th.  Holding the Bulls to 90 points was no small feat.  The Heat have owned the Hawks in their final two regular season meetings, winning 131-109 and 122-112.  It should be more of the same tonight.  Bet the Heat Friday.

15* Heat/Bulls ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Chicago ML -113

The Chicago Bulls have quietly gone 15-5 SU & 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  They have outright upset wins over the Magic, Heat (twice), Pacers, Lakers (twice), Kings and Nuggets during this stretch.  Three of the five losses came on the road to three of the best teams in the NBA in the Cavs, Thunder and Rockets.

The Bulls have owned the Heat this season going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS despite being underdogs in all three games.  They won by 9 and 8 at home and by 5 on the road.  This is clearly a good matchup for them, and they should be fresh and ready to go after limiting their starters' minutes down the stretch.

There's just not a lot to like about the Miami Heat since trading away Jimmy Butler.  They rely too much on Tyler Hero and Bam Adebayo, while the Bulls are a much more compete team with Coby White, Josh Giddey, Nikola Vucevic, Kevin Heurter, Patrick Williams and Matas Buzelis working really well together.

Chicago fans are starving for a winner, and this will be a tremendous home-court advantage at the United Center with an atmosphere similar to when the Bulls upset the Lakers on the Josh Giddey half-court buzzer-beater.  The Bulls are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games with their lone loss coming by a single point.  Bet the Bulls on the Money Line Tuesday.

20* Heat/Bulls ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 218.5

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team and books have failed to set their totals high enough all season.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace this season, and this total of 218.5 is very low for a game involving the Bulls.

Indeed, the Bulls and their opponents have combined for at least 222 points in 34 of their last 36 games.  That makes for a 34-2 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 218.5-point total.  Books have adjusted this number down too much for this being a playoff game.

No question the Miami Heat profile more of an under team as they like to play slower than the Bulls do, but the Bulls will control the tempo playing at home.  Plus, the Heat have taken off offensively here down the stretch.  The Heat are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall finishing with 222 or more combined points in all five games.  The Heat have scored at least 108 points in 12 consecutive games and 115 points or more in nine of those.

The Heat and Bulls have combined for 257, 223 and 230 points in their three regular season meetings.  They have combined for at least 223 points in five of their last six meetings as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Hawks/Magic TNT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 216.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace this season and as long as Trae Young is healthy and on the court, they will always be an OVER team.

This is a very low total for a game involving the Hawks.  The Hawks and their opponents have combined for at least 226 points in each of their last 14 games, and 219 or more points in each of their last 23 games, making for a 23-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 216.5-point total.

The Magic have been much better offensively since getting healthy here down the stretch.  They put up 116 or more points in four of their seven games in which they played their starters.

The Magic and Hawks have combined for at least 218 points in all four meetings this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Pelicans OVER 234.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team with or without starters.  They have gone 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 236 or ore combined points in six of those eight games.

They combined for 237 points with the Suns and 256 with the Jazz in their last two games despite resting starters.  And now they face a Pelicans team that is playing zero defense right now and has incentive to lose.

The OVER is 4-0-1 in Pelicans last five games overall.  They just gave up 153 points to the Heat, who are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They gave up 136 to the Bucks the game prior.  They have gone for at least 232 combined points in four of their last five games, including 257 and 247 in their last two.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Oklahoma City Thunder -12

It's really amazing what the Thunder are doing when they have been resting starters.  They are showing off their impressive depth.  Two games ago they beat the Suns by 13 as 6.5-point favorites without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.  And last game they sat all their starters and beat the Jazz 145-111 as 9-point favorites.

Don't expect the tanking Pelicans to offer any resistance today.  The Pelicans lost 136-111 as 16.5-point dogs to the Bucks and 153-104 as 15-point dogs to the Heat in their last two games coming in.  They have incentive to lose.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference Total OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Timberwolves OVER 231.5

The tanking Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 6th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  The Jazz are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall with 256, 259, 281, 252 and 248 combined points.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Jazz right now.

The Minnesota Timberwolves will have incentive to keep the foot on the gas for four quarters as a win gets them in the playoffs, while a loss would likely push them to the play-in.  They just beat the Grizzlies 141-125 for 266 combined points, a Memphis team that profiles similarly to Utah.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets -8.5

The Denver Nuggets will be highly motivated for a win today.  They would clinch the No. 4 see with a win and home-court advantage in the first round.  They could drop all the way down to the No. 7 seed and a play-in with a loss if the Timberwolves beat the Jazz and the Warriors beat the Clippers.

There's a lot at stake for Denver today, and nothing at stake for the Houston Rockets.  The Rockets have been locked in to the No. 2 seed in the West for their past two games.  They have played like it as well losing by 17 to the Clippers as 10.5-point dogs and by 31 to the Lakers are 13.5-point dogs.  There's no reason for them to offer any resistance in the regular season finale here, either.  Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

20* Nuggets/Rockets NBA No-Brainer on OVER 233.5

The Denver Nuggets are a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and the worst defense they've had in years.  It's a big reason Mike Malone was fired.  But there's just not much they can do about it at this point, forced to try and win shootouts.

The Rockets have been locked into the No. 2 seed their last two games.  They have been playing mostly backups, and while they are an elite defensive team when their starters play, they are a terrible defensive team with backups.  But they have plenty of offensive firepower off the bench.

The OVER is 2-0 in Rockets last two games since resting starters combining for 251 points with the Clippers and 249 with the Lakers.  They allowed 140 points to the Lakers and 134 to the Clippers.  They are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games dating back further.  I like guys like Whitmore, Sheppard and Holiday getting a lot of playing time because they are all offense and zero defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Rockets/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 225

The Lakers have put up big numbers offensively whenever LeBron, Doncic and Reeves have been on the court and healthy.  They have scored at least 116 points in seven of their last nine games overall.  They will do the heavy lifting in leading us to an easy OVER winner.

The Houston Rockets are locked into the No. 2 seed with nothing to play for.  They played all their backups last game and while their backups are loaded with offensive talent with the likes of Whitmore, SHeppard and Holiday leading the way, they are terrible defensively.

That was on display last time out in their 134-117 road loss to the Clippers that saw 251 combined points.  They shot 51% as a team including 50% from 3-point range, but they allowed 53% shooting and 51% from 3-point range to the Clippers.  Everything will come easy for the Lakers tonight, but the Rockets will do enough as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Los Angeles Clippers -6

There are only 3 games separating the 3rd through 8th seeds in the West.  Win out and the Clippers will avoid the play-in.  They are max motivated, and they are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.

The Clippers are 13-2 SU & 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They take on a Sacramento Kings team that really doesn't have much to play for.  They are locked in to the 9th or 10th seed and will be a play-in team.  The only thing left to decide is who gets home-court advantage between them and Dallas.  Well, the Kings own the tiebreaker, so they know they can clinch home court at home against the Suns on Sunday.  The Suns have quit on their season so that will be an easy win if need be.

Injuries are also a problem for the Kings right now.  They are without Malik Monk and could be without Keegan Murray.  They are coming off an 8-point home loss to the Nuggets.  I expect them to get blown out by the Clippers tonight.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Golden State Warriors -12

The Golden State Warriors are desperate to avoid the play-in.  They currently sit in 7th place in the West tied with 6th place Memphis.  There is only two games separating them and the 3rd place Lakers.  They have a lot to play for.

The Portland Trail Blazers are clearly tanking with all the guys they are resting.  They are without Simons, Henderson, Grant, Avidja and Ayton and could be without Sharpe tonight.  They don't care about winning this game.  They were upset as 6.5-point favorites by the tanking Jazz last time out.  Bet the Warriors Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Kings OVER 226.5

The Clippers have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team here down the stretch now that they've gotten healthy.  They are 13-7 OVER in their last 20 games overall.  Their last three games have all been shootouts combining for 239 points with the Mavs, 239 with the Spurs and 251 with the Rockets.  They have gone for 239 or more combined points in five of their last nine games overall.

The Kings are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall.  They have gone for 227 or more combined points in five consecutive games.  This total of 226.5 is very low for a game involving the Kings and Clippers right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on San Antonio Spurs +4.5

The Phoenix Suns have no business being favored against anyone.  The Suns are 0-8 SU in their last eight games and 0-9 ATS in their last nine games.  They have already been eliminated from the playoffs.  They are just ready for their season to be over.

The Spurs are locked into their position in the NBA lottery.  They have no incentive to tank anymore.  They have been competitive here down the stretch even when most thought they should be tanking.

The Spurs have gone 2-3 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are coming off a 114-111 upset road win at Golden State as 17.5-point dogs.  They celebrated like they won the title, so these games clearly mean something to them.  They only lost by 5 to the Clippers as 12.5-point road dogs, and the Clippers are playing as well as anyone.  They lost by 1 to the Cavs as 12.5-point dogs, and they upset the Nuggets as road dogs outright.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Thunder/Jazz OVER 231

Two teams with nothing to play for tonight square off in a game that should feature all offense and zero defense due to the circumstances.  The Jazz are already locked in to a Bottom 3 record in the NBA which gives them a 14% chance of the No. 1 pick.  The Thunder are already locked into the No. 1 seed with home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.

The Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 6th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  The Jazz are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 281, 259, 252 and 248 combined points.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Jazz right now.

The Thunder rested their starters last game and still showed they have plenty of offensive firepower when that's the case.  They are still an elite offensive team but take a big step back defensively without their main guys.  The Thunder beat the Suns 125-112 for 237 combined points.  The OVER is 5-2 in Thunder last seven games overall with 236 or more combined points in five of those seven games.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the Thunder and Jazz with 237 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz +11.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the West and the best record in the NBA thus home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.  They have zero motivation these final two games and will be playing all their backups.

The Utah Jazz no longer have any reason to tank.  They have clinched one of the three worst records in the NBA and will have a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick as a result.  They are trying to win these final games now.

That was evident last time out when they pulled off the 133-126 (OT) upset as 6.5-point underdogs to the Blazers.  They were celebrating like they won the title.  Look for them to relish this opportunity to beat the top team in the West even if they aren't playing their regulars.  Bet the Jazz Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -6.5

The Denver Nuggets responded well to the Mike Malone firing.  They beat the Kings 124-116 as 124-116 as 4.5-point road favorites in their first game since firing Malone.  They have a ton to play for with only 3 games separating the 3rd through 8th seeds in the West, and they desperately don't want to have to play in the play-in.  If they win out they will be the 3rd or 4th seed, which would give them home-court advantage in the 1st round.

But this is as much a fade of the Grizzlies as it is a play on the Nuggets.  The Grizzlies are coming off a 141-125 home loss to the Timberwolves last night.  So they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and in their 3rd different city in 4 days, plus in altitude in Denver to boot.  Jackson Jr. played 37 minutes, Bane 38 and Morant 36 last night.  They won't have much left in the tank tonight.

The Nuggets should be very fresh after having yesterday off and playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  Denver owns Memphis going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Nuggets are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Grizzlies with all five wins coming by 13 points or more.  Bet the Nuggets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +11.5

The Toronto Raptors are locked in to their spot in the NBA lottery.  Even if they weren't, they clearly continue to play hard.  The Raptors are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall and have been one of the best covering teams in the NBA all season.

The Mavericks are getting too much respect here with the fact that they still have something to play for, technically.  But the Mavericks trail the Kings by one game and they lose the tiebreaker with the Kings for the 9th seed and home-court advantage in the play-in.  They would have to win out and have the Kings lose out, which they know is unlikely considering the Kings host the Suns in their next game.  The Suns have quit on their season.

I also think it's a flat spot for the Mavericks for another reason.  They are coming off their huge game against the Lakers with Luka Doncic returning to Dallas.  They put a lot into that game and came up short, and it's the type of loss that could beat them twice.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Wizards/Bulls OVER 235

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace this season.  The Bulls are 9-2-1 OVER in their last 12 games overall with 230 or more combined points in all 12 games.

The Washington Wizards are also a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in pace and 28th in defensive rating.  The Wizards and Bulls have combined for at least 232 points in each of their last four meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Bucks/Pistons NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Detroit -4.5

The Detroit Pistons get to play the Milwaukee Bucks twice in their final two games.  If they win both, they will overtake the Bucks for the 5th seed.  They showed a lot of fight last night erasing a double-digit deficit to beat the Knicks 115-106 at home.

While it will be the 2nd of a back-to-back for the Pistons, they are still going to be the fresher team.  They had two days off prior to last game.  Meanwhile, the Bucks will not only be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but their 5th game in 7 days.  They are already without Lillard and Portis and I wouldn't be surprised if they are cautious with Giannis tonight.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Nets OVER 227.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and play zero defense.  The Hawks are 15-5-1 OVER in their last 21 games overall.  Amazingly, the Hawks and their opponents have combined for at least 233 points in 19 of those 21 games, making for a 19-2 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 227.5-point total.

The Brooklyn Nets are giving their youngsters some run here at the end of the season and they aren't concerned with tanking because they are locked in to their spot in the lottery.  They are all offense and zero defense right now, too.

That is evident by the fact that the Nets are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall.  They won't mind getting in a shootout with the Hawks tonight.  The Hawks and Nets have combined for at least 227 points in six of their last eight meetings.  That includes 236 and 236 points in their first two meetings this season, which both sailed OVER the total as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons -4.5

The Detroit Pistons have a sneaky motivational advantage over the New York Knicks tonight that isn't being factored into this line enough.  And you can read the tea leaves when you look at the injury report for tonight.

The Pistons come in pissed off coming off two consecutive losses to the Grizzlies and Kings.  They have had the last two days off, so they are rested and ready to go.  They have upgraded both Cade Cunningham and Tobias Harris to probable tonight, and they got good news that they may get Jaden Ivey back in time for the playoffs as well.  They play the Bucks in their final two games, so if they win their last three games they could catch the Bucks for the 5th seed.

The New York Knicks are coming off a heartbreaking OT loss to the Celtics.  It's the type of loss that could beat them twice.  The Knicks are currently the 3rd seed in the East, and they wouldn't mind falling down to the 4th seed to let the Pacers pass them.  That would mean a 2nd round series with the Cavaliers instead of the Celtics, which is what I think the Knicks would prefer.

The Knicks have decided to rest two of their best players in Anunoby and Hart tonight.  I wouldn't be surprised if Brunson and Towns are on a minutes restriction as well.  They clearly aren't concerned with winning their final three games of the season.  They just want to get healthy for the playoffs after injuries took their toll on the Knicks in the playoffs last year.  I'll gladly back the healthier, more rested and more motivated team tonight laying the short number at home.  Bet the Pistons Thursday.

15* Rockets/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -6.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are playing better than anyone in the NBA right now.  They have gone 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They rank 1st in net rating (17.1) by a wide margin which is 5 points better than 2nd place (OKC, 12.1) during this stretch.

This run has jumped the Clippers all the way up to 4th place in the West and within one game of the Lakers for the Pacific Division title.  They are in a 4-way tie for the 4th through 7th seeds, so they are one loss away from having to play in the play-in as well.  They cannot afford to take their foot off the gas.

I like the fact that the Clippers rested Kawhi Leonard last night in anticipation of him playing tonight against the Rockets.  While several guys played big minutes for the Clippers last night as a result, they should still be pretty fresh considering they had two days off prior to that game.

While the Clippers have a lot to play for, the Rockets are locked in to the No. 2 deed in the West.  They have zero motivation over their final three games.  They have decided to rest Fred VanVleet tonight, and they may rest Sengun as well as he is listed as questionable.  I'll gladly back the healthier, more motivated team playing the better basketball at home tonight.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Jazz OVER 229

Two teams with nothing to play for tonight square off in a game that should feature all offense and zero defense due to the circumstances.  The Jazz are already locked in to a Bottom 3 record in the NBA which gives them a 14% chance of the No. 1 pick.  The Blazers were just eliminated from playoff contention and are guaranteed to finish either 21st or 22nd.

The Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 7th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  The Jazz are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall with 281, 252 and 248 combined points.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Jazz right now.

The Blazers are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games overall finishing with 229 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  So this total of 229 is also very low for a game involving the Blazers.  

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 231 or more combined points in four of those five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Bulls OVER 225.5

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace this season.  The Bulls are 8-2-1 OVER in their last 11 games overall with 231 or more combined points in all 11 games.  That makes for an 11-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 225.5-point total, which is very low for a game involving the Bulls right now.

The Miami Heat have also been trending OVER here of late.  They are 3-1 OVER in their last four games.  The OVER is 4-2 in the last six meetings with 234 or more combined points in three of their last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Orlando Magic -3.5

I jumped on the Magic -3.5 last night in anticipation that the Boston Celtics would rest their starters.  The Celtics were coming off a 117-115 (OT) win at New York last night in which Tatum played 47 minutes, White 42, Porzingis 38 and Holiday 37.  The Celtics are locked in to the No. 2 seed in the East as well, so they have nothing to play for over the final three games.

Indeed, the Celtics have decided to rest starters with Tatum, White, Porzingis, Holiday and Horford all ruled out and Brown listed questionable.  Their only concern now is keeping guys healthy for the playoffs to make another title run.

The Magic have something at stake and are playing like it.  They are trying to lock down the 7th spot in the play-in which would give them their best chance to make the playoffs.  Orlando is 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in its last nine games overall.

The Magic will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back as well after a 119-112 home win over the Hawks last night, but they had 4 days off prior to that game so they should still be pretty fresh.  And they will be pushing their guys to play again tonight with the 7th seed at stake.  Bet the Magic Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -7

The Golden State Warriors are in a four-way tie for the 5th through 8th seeds in the West.  There is only two games separating the 3rd through 8th seeds as well.  With all these teams motivated to avoid the play-in, we can expect max effort from these six teams the rest of the way.

The Warriors and Steph Curry in particular will be motivated to bounce back from an upset home loss to the Houston Rockets on Sunday.  Curry had his worst game of the season finishing with just 3 points on 1-of-10 shooting.  That was a rare loss for the Warriors, who are 19-3 in games in which Curry and Butler have started together since trading for Butler.

Now the Warriors play a dead Phoenix Suns team that is just ready for this season to be over.  The Suns are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with all six losses coming by double-digits.  Golden State will win by double-digits tonight as well.  Bet the Warriors Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a four-way tie for the 5th through 8th seeds in the West.  There is only two games separating the 3rd through 8th seeds as well.  With all these teams motivated to avoid the play-in, we can expect max effort from these six teams the rest of the way.

While the Timberwolves are max motivated, the Milwaukee Bucks have questionable motivation the rest of the way.  They will either be the 5th or 6th seed in the East.  There's not much difference as their opponent will either be the Knicks or Pacers.  They just want to keep Giannis healthy and give themselves their best chance to make a run in the playoffs.

The Timberwolves are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, clearly showing how motivated they are to get out of the play-in.  I'll gladly back the better, more motivated team tonight laying a short number here.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Orlando Magic -3.5

I love the spot for the Orlando Magic tonight.  They are max rested as they have had the last four days off! They are also max motivated clinging on to the 7th seed and a one-game lead over the Atlanta Hawks for 1st place in the Southeast Division.  They host the Hawks tonight and will be max motivated to get it done.

The Magic have found their groove going 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses coming to the Clippers and Mavericks.  They have home wins over the Lakers by 12 and the Kings by 30 during this stretch, and they have one of the better home-court advantages in the NBA.

The Hawks have gone the other direction, going 2-5 SU in their last seven games with their two wins coming over the Jazz at home and Bucks on the road.  They play zero defense, and that's what is going to kill them not only tonight but in the playoffs as well.  Bet the Magic Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pacers OVER 235.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Washington Wizards visit the Indiana Pacers.  The Wizards rank 4th in pace while the Pacers rank 8th in pace this season, so this game will be up-tempo.

The Pacers have gone 5-1-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 239 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  That includes their 162-109 win over the Wizards for 271 combined points on March 27th.  It will be more of the same in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies/Hornets OVER 230

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace this season, and this total of 230 is very low for a game involving the Grizzlies.  That's especially the case with Ja Morant expected to return to the lineup from illness tonight.

The Charlotte Hornets will finish with one of the three worst records in the NBA which means they will give themselves their best chance of getting the No. 1 pick as the three worst teams all have a 14% chance.  They won't be concerned with tanking tonight, and they will gladly get up and down with the Grizzlies while playing zero defense.

The Hornets are coming off 248 combined points with the Bulls, a similar team to the Grizzlies that ranks 2nd in pace and also likes to play super fast.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Grizzlies and Hornets, and these teams combined for 252 points in their first meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Florida/Houston Championship Game No-Brainer on Houston +1.5

The Houston Cougars are 34-4 this season with all four losses coming by 5 points or fewer, including three in OT.  They have only lost one game since December 1st and that was a 1-point loss to Texas Tech in OT.  They are battle-tested and have come out on top in almost all of their close games since December.

The Cougars had the toughest route to championship game by far.  It started with beating Gonzaga, which was the most under-seeded team in the entire tournament.  Then they beat the defending runners-up in Purdue in a dog fight in what was essentially a home game for the Boilermakers being played in Indianapolis.  Tennessee had the home-court advantage in the Elite 8 in Indianapolis, but it didn't matter as the Cougars put together their most complete performance of the season in a wire-to-wire job in a 69-50 win over Vols.

Now it's Houston that gets the home-court advantage.  The Final 4 is being played in the Alamodome in San Antonio.  Houston is the 9th team to play in its home state in the Final 4 since 1975. Those teams playing in their home state have gone 8-1 SU in the previous nine instances, including all three underdogs winning outright.

That includes their 70-67 win over Duke in the Final 4.  Things were going against Houston for 30 minutes that they were able to overcome.  Uzan got two early fouls and picked up his 4th foul early in the 2H and played just 28 minutes total.  The Cougars overcame a 14-point deficit in the 2H and a 6-point deficit in the final minute to beat a Duke team that almost everyone thought would win the title after running through everyone else.

Florida is fortunate to be here.  The Gators survived a dog fight against 8th seed UConn, they needed a double-digit comeback in the final few minutes to beat Texas Tech, and they overcame a double-digit deficit in the 2H against Auburn.  They got to face Auburn with a hobbled Broome as well.  This is where the luck for the Gators runs out.

Florida hasn't face a team that plays with the physicality and toughness that Houston does defensively.  The Cougars rank 1st in adjusted defense and 360th in adjusted tempo.  They drag you in the mud and make you play their game.  And I think they should get the benefit of the whistle with this essentially being a home game for them being played in San Antonio.  No question the Cougars feel like they can't lose at this point after that comeback win over Duke.  They are playing with extreme confidence, and I trust Kelvin Sampson to make the proper adjustments over Todd Golden of the Gators.  Bet Houston Monday. 

15* Rockets/Warriors NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Golden State -5.5

The Golden State Warriors are 19-2 SU in their last 21 games in which both Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler start.  The Warriors are highly motivated for wins right now to avoid the play-in.

And that's the difference in this game.  The Houston Rockets are pretty much locked in to the No. 2 seed in the West after their huge upset win over the Thunder last time out.  That sets them up for a massive letdown spot here.  

The Warriors own the Rockets going 16-1 SU in their last 17 meetings with their lone loss coming by a single point.  Amazingly, 14 of those 16 wins have come by 6 points or more.  Bet the Warriors Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +20.5

The Washington Wizards are locked in to one of the three worst records in the NBA which gives them their best odds at the No. 1 pick in the draft.  They aren't concerned about tanking anymore as a result, and that has shown in their play here of late.

The Wizards are 2-0 ATS in their last two games upsetting the Kings 116-111 as 13.5-point dogs and covering in a 12-point loss to the Magic the very next night as 15-point dogs.  Now the Wizards have had the last two days off and will relish this opportunity to try and take down the defending champs.

The Boston Celtics are the team with questionable motivation here down the stretch.  They are locked in to the No. 2 seed now in the East.  They won't care about trying to beat the Wizards, let alone beat them by margin.  Tatum and Brown are questionable to play tonight as well.  The Wizards haven't lost any of their last four meetings with the Celtics by more than 20 points.  Bet the Wizards Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on San Antonio Spurs +5

The San Antonio Spurs are the exact type of team you can make money on down the stretch of the NBA season.  They continue to play hard despite being eliminated from postseason contention.

The Spurs have gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall and are coming off two huge efforts upsetting the Nuggets on the road and only losing to the Cavaliers by 1 at home as 12.5-point dogs.

The Blazers are 2-5 SU in their last seven games overall and dealing with a plethora of injuries right now.  Ayton, Grant and Henderson are out, while Simons and Avidja are questionable.  Those are their five best players.  

Given the injury report, they should not be 5-point favorites here.  This is also a tough spot for the Blazers returning home from a 5-game road trip and playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days.  Bet the Spurs Sunday.

20* Lakers/Thunder NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 230

The Los Angeles Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and a terrible defense.  The Lakers are 12-4 OVER in their last 16 games overall with 232 or more combined points in 11 of their last 15 games.

The Thunder are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall with 236 or more combined points in three of those four games.  The Thunder have scored at least 119 points in eight of their last 10 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Bulls/Hornets NBA Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 227.5

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace this season.  The OVER is 6-2-1 in Bulls last nine games overall with 231 or more combined points in all nine games.  That makes for an 9-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 227.5-point total.  This is a very low total for a game involving Chicago.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Houston/Duke Final 4 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 137

Two of the best defenses in the country square off in the Final 4 when Houston meets Duke in the spacious Alamodome in San Antonio.  These basketball games that are played in football stadiums all tend to be lower scoring.  We saw that play out in Indianapolis in the Sweet 16 and the Elite 8.

Houston is a dead nuts UNDER team as it is, and the Cougars played a 62-60 dog fight with Purdue for 122 combined points and another 69-50 defensive battle with Tennessee for 119 combined points in their two games in Indianapolis.  The Cougars rank 1st in adjusted defense this season and 360th in adjusted tempo as only four teams in the entire country play slower than they do.

Duke also doesn't like to push the pace ranking 268th in adjusted tempo and 4th in adjusted defense.  Few teams have been able to do what Duke did to Alabama last game.  The Blue Devils held the Crimson Tide to just 65 points and totally took them out of their game.  But Duke has gotten away with playing four poor, undersized defensive teams thus far in the tournament in Mt. St. Mary's, Baylor, Arizona and Alabama.  The Blue Devils haven't faced a team as physical and ferocious defensively as Houston is.  

This is a rematch from a 54-51 win by Duke and just 105 combined points in the Sweet 16 last season.  While I don't expect it to be that low-scoring again, I fully expect it to stay UNDER this 137-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston +5

The Houston Cougars are 34-4 this season with all four losses coming by 5 points or fewer, including three in OT.  They have only lost one game since December 1st and that was a 1-point loss to Texas Tech in OT.  They are battle-tested and have come out on top in almost all of their close games since December.

The Cougars had the toughest route to the Final 4 of any of the four remaining teams, and especially much tougher than Duke's path.  It started with beating Gonzaga, which was the most under-seeded team in the entire tournament.  Then they beat the defending runners-up in Purdue in a dog fight in what was essentially a home game for the Boilermakers being played in Indianapolis.  Tennessee has the home-court advantage last round in Indianapolis, but it didn't matter as the Cougars put together their most complete performance of the season in a wire-to-wire job in a 69-50 win over Vols.

Now it's Houston that gets the home-court advantage here.  The Final 4 will be played in the Alamodome in San Antonio.  Houston is the 9th team to play in its home state in the Final 4 since 1975. Those teams playing in their home state have gone 7-1 SU in the previous eight instances, including both underdogs winning outright.

Duke has played four pretty soft, guard-oriented teams to get here.  The last three wins came against Baylor, Arizona and Alabama.  Arizona from the Big 12 gave them their toughest test in a 7-point defeat.  Houston went 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Arizona this season.

Duke has struggled against more physical, defensive-minded teams that slow down the tempo.  Their last loss came against Clemson, which ranks 327th in adjusted tempo and 17th in adjusted defense.  They also lost to fellow Big 12 opponent Kansas earlier this season, and the Jayhawks rank 11th in adjusted defense.  Kansas lost both meetings with Houston this season.

Duke hasn't seen a team that will challenge them physically and mentally like Houston will.  The Cougars rank 360th in adjusted tempo and 1st in adjusted defense.  But this is also the best offense of the Kelvin Sampson era with the Cougars ranking 10th in adjusted offense.  The trio of guards in Cryer, Uzan and Sharpe can match that of Duke, and Roberts, Francis and Tugler are a trio of big men that are tough to deal with inside.  

I expect Houston to win the majority of the loose balls and to feed off of what will feel like a home crowd in San Antonio.  This line should be much closer to PK.  Finally, the Cougars want revenge from a 54-51 loss to Duke in the Sweet 16 last season.  Jamal Shead got hurt in the 1H in that game and wasn't able to return, and it made all the difference.  The Cougars get their revenge in the Final 4 one year later.  Bet Houston Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/76ers OVER 224.5

The Philadelphia 76ers have been a dead nuts OVER team here down the stretch with all offense and no defense while also playing fast.  The 76ers are 12-4-1 OVER in their last 17 games overall with 228 or more combined points in 12 of those 17 games.  This is a very low total for a game involving the 76ers right now.

The Timberwolves have also been an OVER team here down the stretch now that they are fully healthy.  The Timberwolves are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall with 227 or more combined points in eight of their last 10 games overall.  This is also a very low total involving Minnesota right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -2

The Memphis Grizzlies are desperate for wins here down the stretch.  They sit in 8th place in the West but have a great chance to get out of the play-in altogether with a big finish considering just 2 games separate the 3rd through 8th seeds in the West.  It is a logjam and it's going to be a wild finish to the regular season as a result.

After a brutal schedule with four straight losses to the Thunder, Lakers, Celtics and Warriors, the Grizzlies finally got a break and ended their losing streak with a road win at Miami at the buzzer.  It's the kind of win the team can rally around to close out the season.

Now the Grizzlies get to face the Pistons, who are dealing with injuries to Cade Cunningham and Tobias Harris.  It's a tired Pistons team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 117-105 win at Toronto against the tanking Raptors last night.  The Pistons will now be playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days with a lot of travel involved in between.

The Pistons don't have a lot on the line here down the stretch.  They will either be the 5th or 6th seed in the East.  There's not much difference there as they will either face the Knicks or Pacers in the 1st round.  They don't need these games nearly as much as the Grizzlies do.  Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* Florida/Auburn Final 4 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 161.5

The Final 4 will be played in the spacious Alamodome in San Antonio that seats 70,000 fans.  These basketball games that are played in football stadiums tend to be lower scoring due to the poor shooting backgrounds.  We saw that play out in Indianapolis in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.  UNDERS went 3-0 in those three games.

The last 15 Final 4 games with a total of 160 or higher went 10-5 UNDER.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and Florida and Auburn being from the SEC and having already played once this season will know what to expect when they meet again in the Final 4.

Florida ranks 10th in adjusted defense while Auburn ranks 8th in adjusted defense.  Both teams hang their hats on defense.  The Tigers may have to do that even more now with their best player hampered as Johnni Broome suffered an elbow injury against Michigan State.  He was nursing that elbow the entire way when he returned, and there's no way he'll be 100% even though he will likely play through it.

Auburn is 5-1 UNDER in its last six games overall with 152 or fewer combined points in all six games, including 146 or fewer in five of the six.  Florida went for 152 combined points with UConn, 158 with Maryland and 163 with Texas Tech in its last three games coming in.  Florida needed 4 straight made 3-pointers and 25-of-27 from the FT line to escape with a victory in a very high-scoring final couple minutes against Texas Tech.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State Warriors PK

The Golden State Warriors are 18-4 in their last 22 games overall and have been dominant since trading for Jimmy Butler.  Despite playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, Steve Kerr stated that all his starters would play again tonight after a road win over the Lakers last night.

It's a short travel back home for Golden State, and they should be favored here instead of PK.  The Nuggets are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall and have been overvalued for weeks.  It will be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Nuggets, who are banged up right now.  Bet the Warriors Friday.

20* Nuggets/Warriors NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 235

Both the Nuggets and Warriors are trending OVER here lately.  The Warriors are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 254, 259 and 239 points.

The Nuggets get all their players back tonight after they all rested last game against San Antonio.  They have been a dead nuts OVER team as long as Jokic is healthy and playing.  They went for 238 or more combined points in three of their last four games in which that was the case.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Rockets OVER 227.5

Two teams trending OVER here down the stretch square off tonight.  And the OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Rockets and Thunder with 233 or more combined points in four of those five meetings.  The only one that went under was in the NBA Cup where both teams played max intensity defense.  They came back for 265 combined points in their most recent regular season meeting on March 3rd.

The Thunder have scored at least 119 points in eight of their last nine games overall.  The Rockets are 8-2-1 OVER in their last 11 games overall with 227 or more combined points in eight of those 11 games.  The Rockets have scored at least 121 points in four of their last five games, including 143 and 148 in two of their last three.  One of Houston's best defenders in Dillon Brooks has been suspended for this game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Bulls OVER 234.5

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace this season.  The OVER is 6-1-1 in Bulls last eight games overall with 236 or more combined points in all eight games.  That makes for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 234.5-point total.

The OVER is 5-2 in Blazers last seven games overall with 233 or more combined points in five of those seven games, including 235 or more five times.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Suns/Celtics NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on OVER 225

The Phoenix Suns are a dead nuts OVER team right now due to their terrible defense.  They are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 233 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  They have allowed 133, 148, 124 and 132 points in their last four games overall.

The Boston Celtics are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall combining for at least 227 points in three of those four games.  One of those was a 132-102 win at Phoenix for 234 combined points on March 26th.  It should be another shootout in the rematch that sails over this short 225-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Jazz/Pacers OVER 237

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight.  The Pacers rank 8th in pace 7th in offensive rating while the Jazz rank 7th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.

The Jazz have allowed at least 120 points in five of their last six games overall, including 143 to the Rockets last time out.  The Pacers are going to hang a big number on the Jazz to lead the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Warriors/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 228.5

The Los Angeles Lakers were projected to be a pretty poor defensive team with the addition of Luka Doncic and no true defensive big man on the roster.  That has come to fruition here down the stretch with the Lakers allowing 118 or more points in six of their last seven games overall.  But the Lakers have scored at least 117 points in three of their last four and are an elite offensive team when Doncic, James and Reaves are healthy.  The Lakers are 9-4 OVER in their last 13 games overall.

The Golden State Warriors are thriving offensively with Steph Curry back healthy.  They are coming off a 148-106 win at San Antonio for 254 combined points and a 134-125 win at Memphis for 259 combined points. 

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings and 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the Warriors and Lakers.  They have combined for at least 223 points in all nine meetings, including 232 or more in five of their last seven.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Chattanooga/UC-Irvine NIT Championship ANNIHILATOR on Chattanooga +5

Chattanooga is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the NIT with 4 outright wins as underdogs.  What more do the Mocs need to do to get some respect? Now they are 5-point underdogs to UC-Irvine in the NIT Championship Game, and I fully expect them to win outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

While Chattanooga had to play 3 of its 4 games on the road to get here, UC-Irvine benefitted from getting 3 home games to make the semifinals.  And it couldn't have been a much easier schedule with unimpressive wins over Northern Colorado by 10, Jacksonville State by 5 and UAB by 4.  And the Anteaters were fortunate to get a big comeback to beat North Texas by 2 in the semifinals.  So the only team they beat by more than this 5-point margin was Northern Colorado, which ranks 125th in Kenpom.

So UC-Irvine's 4 wins have come by a total of 21 points despite being favored in every game except being 1-point dogs to North Texas.  Chattanooga's 4 wins have come by a total of 30 points despite being an underdog in all 4 contests.  Bet Chattanooga Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets +13.5

The Brooklyn Nets refuse to tank and have been competitive as a result here down the stretch.  They are exactly the type of team you can make money on.  The Nets are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall including consecutive upset wins over the Wizards and Mavericks.

This looks like a letdown spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves.  They are coming off their wild 140-139 (2 OT) road win at Denver where they won despite a 60-point triple-double from Nikola Jokic.  Keep in mind the Nuggets were without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. for that contest.

The Timberwolves have beaten the Nets by more than 11 points just once in their last 12 meetings, making for an 11-1 system backing the Nets pertaining to this 13.5-point spread.  This game will be much more competitive than this line indicates.  Bet the Nets Thursday.

20* Grizzlies/Heat TNT No-Brainer on OVER 223.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace this season.  They play fast with or without JA Morant, but Morant just returned from a 6-game absence.  The Grizzlies and their opponents have combined for at least 236 points in eight of their last 12 games overall.  This total of 223.5 is very low for a game involving the Grizzlies right now.

The Miami Heat are going through their best stretch of offense all season during their current 6-game winning streak.  They have scored 118 or more points in five of those six wins.  That includes 124 against the Celtics last night, a Boston team that is one of the best defensive squads in the NBA.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Nebraska/Georgetown FS1 No-Brainer on OVER 152

We saw NIT OVERs thrive and now we are seeing College Basketball Crown OVERS thrive.  OVERS are 5-3 in the College Basketball Crown Tournament and 6-2 if you bet early.  Defense tends to be optional, and players just play freely in these lesser tournaments.  We got a good early number here on Nebraska/Georgetown OVER 152.

Georgetown beat Washington State 85-82 for 167 combined points in its tournament opener on Monday.  This despite the Hoyas only shooting 40.8% from the field.  The Hoyas have had to go more small ball without their best big man down the stretch, and they are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall.  They rank 117th in adjusted tempo so they like to play fast as well.

Nebraska is coming off a 86-78 win over Arizona State and 164 combined points.  Neither team really lit it up shooting wise, either.  The Huskers also play faster than your average team ranking 149th in adjusted tempo.  We will see more offensive fireworks in the shooter-friendly MGM Grand Garden arena tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas Mavericks -3

The Dallas Mavericks are fighting hard to make the playoffs.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall to sit in 9th place in the West.  They are just 0.5 games ahead of 10th place Sacramento and 2 games ahead of Phoenix.  So they are basically playing playoff basketball right now and motivated.

A big reason for their success is the return of Anthony Davis.  But they also recently got PJ Washington back from injury, and now both Lively and Gafford are back.  The chemistry should just keep getting better and better with this team as they close out the regular season.

But this is more of a fade of Atlanta than it is a play on Dallas.  This is a very tough spot for the Hawks, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 127-113 home loss to the Portland Trail Blazers last night.  That was such a bad result considering the Blazers were without 3 of their best players in Simons, Henderson and Grant.

Trae Young and Dyson Daniels both played over 36 minutes for the Hawks last night.  The Mavericks have won three consecutive meetings with the Hawks and are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.  Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* Knicks/Cavs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -10.5

The New York Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a lackluster 105-91 home win over the tanking Philadelphia 76ers last night.  The 76ers were sitting pretty much everyone but Grimes and still were in the game until the final minutes.

Because it was a close game in the 4th quarter, five players for the Knicks played at least 32 minutes last night.  This team is already short-handed as it is playing without their top three PG's in Brunson, McBride and Payne, while also having Karl-Anthony Towns being a late scratch due to a knee injury.

The Knicks will not only be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but their 6th game in 9 days which is about as tough as it gets in their current state.  They must play a rested Cleveland Cavaliers team that has had the last two days off.

I've been fading the Cavaliers a lot lately because they have pretty much had the No. 1 seed locked up.  But their lead has now been cut to 4 games by the Celtics with 7 games left.  I think we see them play with more urgency now until they lock up the No. 1 seed, especially coming in on two days' rest tonight.

Unlike the Knicks, the Cavaliers are fully healthy right now.  They beat the Knicks 142-105 in their lone home meeting earlier this season.  And that was even with Brunson, Towns, McBride and Payne in the lineup.  They will at least be without three of these guys in the rematch, and I wouldn't be surprised if Towns sits again as well.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

15* Warriors/Grizzlies NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 236

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace this season.  They play fast with or without JA Morant, but Morant just returned from a 6-game absence.  The Grizzlies and their opponents have combined for at least 236 points in seven of their last 11 games overall.

The Golden State Warriors are thriving offensively with Steph Curry back healthy.  They are coming off a 148-106 win at San Antonio for 254 combined points.  They won't mind getting in a shootout with the Grizzlies tonight.

In fact, these games always tend to be shootouts.  The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 234 or more combined points in all four meetings.  They have gone for 237 or more combined points in six of their last nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.