20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Heat/Blazers OVER 236.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in the NBA in pace and are as healthy as they have been all season.  The Heat are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall going for 133 or more combined points in all six games.  They went for 248 with the Suns, 242 with the Thunder, 247 with the Warriors and 247 with the Kings.  This total of 236.5 is short for a game involving the Heat right now.

The Blazers are getting healthy and have upped the tempo when that's the case.  They still rank 8th in pace despite all the guys they have been missing this season.  Deni Avidja (26.2 PPG) and Shaedon Sharpe (21.8 PPG) are both healthy, and they recently got Jerami Grant (19.9 PPG) and Jrue Holiday (15.1 PPG) back in the lineup.  Both are questionable tonight but should be good to go after having the last three days off.

This will be a rematch from one of the biggest shootouts of the season when the Heat beat the Blazers 136-131 at home on November 8th for 267 combined points.  Avidja had 33 points and Sharpe 21 for the Blazers, while seven different players scored in double figures for the Heat.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Long Beach State/CS-Fullerton OVER 159.5

Cal State Fullerton is a dead nuts OVER team due to the pace they play at.  The Titans rank 2nd in adjusted tempo and 3rd in average length of offensive possession.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  They have gone for 159 or more combined points in seven of their last 10 games overall.

Long Beach State ranks 152nd in adjusted tempo and 256th in adjusted defense.  The Beach have really been an OVER team all season.  They are 13-4 OVER in their 17 lined games this season, and they have gone for at least 159 combined points in seven of their last 13 games, including 154 or more in nine of them.  Both teams will get into the 80's tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night Line Mistake on Cal Poly/UCSB OVER 158

Cal Poly is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 3rd in adjusted tempo, 6th in average length of offensive possession and 229th in adjusted defense.  The Mustangs are scoring 80.6 points per game and allowing 85.3 points per game this season.  This total of 158 is very low for a game involving Cal Poly, which has gone for at least 158 combined points in 14 of 19 games this season.

USCB is an elite offensive team ranking 89th in adjusted offense and 52nd in effective FG percentage.  The Guachos are scoring 78.8 points per game.  But they are a terrible defensive team ranking 275th in adjusted defense and 294th in effective FG percentage defense.  This game has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Big West Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UC-San Diego/UC-Davis OVER 150.5

UC-Davis profiles as an OVER team ranking 114th in adjusted tempo, 71st in average length of offensive possession, 141st in adjusted offense and 205th in adjusted defense.  The Aggies and their opponents have combined for at least 157 points in eight of their last 10 games overall.  This total of 150.5 is very low for a game involving UC-Davis, which is scoring 80.3 points per game this season.  They haven't played an OT game yet, either.

UC-San Diego is an elite offensive team scoring 80.3 points per game as well.  They Tritons rank 83rd in adjusted offense and 47th in effective FG percentage.  They will gladly get in a shootout here with the Aggies.  They have gone for 151 or more combined points in 11 of 19 games this season with zero OT games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on North Dakota State/Denver OVER 158.5

Denver has been the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers are 16-1 OVER in all games this season, and they have gone for 158 or more combined points in 15 of their last 17 games overall.  They rank 81st in adjusted offense and 361st in adjusted defense.  This total of 158.5 is very short for a game involving Denver.

North Dakota State is 140th in adjusted offense and 148th in adjusted defense.  The Bison will gladly get into a shootout with Denver.  They have scored at least 76 points in 16 of their 21 games this season.  I expect both teams to get into the 80's tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Timberwolves OVER 239.5

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in pace this season.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time with both Josh Giddey and Coby White expected to go tonight.  And Tre Jones has come up big in their place doing many of the same things they can when one or both have been missing.

The Bulls are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall including 252 combined points with the Jazz and 248 with the Clippers.  They played four under teams during this stretch, too.  Now they face an OVER team here in the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Timberwolves are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall.  They have played several absolute shootouts during this stretch combining for 249 points with the Jazz, 249 with the Spurs, 245 with the Bucks, 280 with the Cavs, 251 with the Cavs, 256 with the Wizards and 240 with the Heat.  It should be more of the same here against an OVER team in the Bulls.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks +5.5

The Denver Nuggets are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and playing well.  They are coming off a 114-97 road win at New York as 12.5-point dogs.  They have had the last two days off and will be fresh and ready to go tonight as they return home to face the Golden State Warriors.

The Warriors are a mess right now with Jimmy Butler's season-ending ACL injury suffered earlier this week, plus Jonathan Kuminga demanding a trade.  Their age is really starting to show.  The Warriors are coming off a 145-127 home loss to the Raptors as 3.5-point favorites in their 3rd game without Butler.

The Mavericks are 13-11 SU at home while the Warriors are 8-13 SU on the road.  The home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Warriors will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 15th game in 26 days as they haven't had two days off in a row since December.  Bet the Mavericks Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin/Penn State OVER 160.5

Wisconsin is a dead nuts OVER team going 11-7 OVER in all games this season.  The Badgers rank 51st in adjusted tempo, 37th in adjusted offense and 63rd in adjusted defense.  They are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with the lone under coming by a 0.5 point in a 80-72 win over slow-paced UCLA and a total of 152.5.  The Badgers went for 162 combined points with Purdue, 179 with Michigan and 183 with slow-paced Rutgers during this stretch.

Penn State ranks 79th in adjusted offense but just 203rd in adjusted defense playing as one of the worst defensive Power 4 teams in the country.  The Nittany Lions recently went for 169 combined points with Maryland and 178 with Purdue, allowing 96 points to the Terrapins and 93 points to the Boilermakers.  Wisconsin will hang a big number on them tonight to lead the way to use cashing this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CAA PLAY OF THE DAY on William & Mary -1

UNC-Wilmington is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Seahawks have a 17-2 record but it has come against the 358th-ranked schedule.  Only seven teams in the entire country have faced an easier slate than them.  They have also gone 5-1 in games decided by 4 points or less.

William & Mary is 12-6 against the 209th-ranked schedule.  The Tribe have only lost one game by more than 11 points all season, and that was at St. John's.  They have handled their business at home going a perfect 7-0 on their home floor while outscoring opponents by 23.0 points per game.  I'll gladly back the Tribe in this short favorite role as they are the better team and they are at home.  Bet William & Mary Thursday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati +14

Arizona is 18-0 and one of only three undefeated teams left in the country.  With their unbeaten record comes expectations from the public and oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  Asking the Wildcats to win this game by 15-plus points over Cincinnati to beat us is asking too much.

The Wildcats did not live up to expectations in their last two games.  They only beat Arizona State by 7 as 21.5-point home favorites and UCF by 7 as 9.5-point road favorites.  Cincinnati is better than both of those teams.

The Bearcats have had some poor luck in close games this season with their last four losses all coming by 7 points or fewer.  They rebounded nicely with a 77-68 home win over Colorado and a 79-70 upset home win over Iowa State in their last two games coming in.  Now they are ready to give Arizona a run for its money tonight.  Bet Cincinnati Wednesday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Valparaiso ML -120

I love the spot for Valparaiso tonight.  The Beacons will be out for revenge from a 75-70 loss at Southern Illinois on January 1st.  They shot just 4-of-21 (19%) from 3-point range and still only lost by 5.  They are due some positive shooting regression at home in the rematch.

Southern Illinois is just 2-7 SU in road games this season while Valparaiso is 8-3 SU at home.  That includes 3-0 SU in their last three MVC home games with wins over Northern Iowa by 10, Illinois State by 6 and Illinois-Chicago by 7.  The Salukis are 2-7 SU in true road games with the two wins coming by a combined 3 points.  Bet Valparaiso on the money line Wednesday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Memphis/Tulsa OVER 153.5

Tulsa is a dead nuts OVER team going 12-4 OVER in all games this season and not once going to OT.  The Golden Hurricane rank 30th in adjusted offense and 164th in adjusted defense.  They are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games overall and have gone for at least 160 combined points in eight of their last 11 games.  This total of 153.5 is very low for a game involving Tulsa right now.

Memphis is coming off a 95-69 win over UTSA for 164 combined points.  The Tigers are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall also combining for 167 points with Florida Atlantic, a team that profiles similarly to Tulsa.  Both teams rank in the Top 143 in tempo so there will be plenty of possessions to get this OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Hornets +3.5

The Charlotte Hornets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now.  They have gone 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  A big reason for this recent resurgence is due to being one of the healthiest teams in the NBA during this stretch.

Charlotte has a deadly quartet of La'Melo Ball (19.9 PPG, 7.6 APG), Brandon Miller (19.8 PPG), Miles Bridges (19.1 PPG) and Kon Knuepppel (19.0 PPG) who have all been healthy for the majority of this stretch.  They are a potent offensive team with these four healthy and geling.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are without two key players in Darius Garland (18.0 PPG, 6.9 APG) and Sam Merrill (13.8 PPG, 45.5% 3-pointers).  Their offense gets stagnant without these guys, and that was on display in their 136-104 home loss to the Thunder last time out.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Maryland +19

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Maryland and 'sell high' on Illinois tonight.  The Terrapins are 8-10 this season and taking some time under Buzz Williams to improve.  But I've seen enough from them in recent games to know they can stay within this inflated number at Illinois.

The Terrapins are coming off a 96-73 home win over Penn State as 1.5-point favorites.  They also were competitive in a 12-point loss at UCLA as 13.5-point dogs recently.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 8 days so they are fresh and ready to give the Fighting Illini a run for their money tonight.

The Fighting Illini have gone 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.  But they are coming off a lackluster 77-67 home win as 15.5-point favorites against Minnesota.  They have a huge game on deck against Purdue on Saturday that they could easily be looking ahead to.

The Fighting Illini are a tired team playing their 4th game in 11 days.  They are also a beat up team as they will be without 2nd-leading scorer Kylan Boswell (14.3 PPG) tonight, plus 3rd-leading scorer Andrej Stojakovic (13.5 PPG) is questionable with an ankle injury.  Asking the Fighting Illini to win by 20-plus points to beat us in their current state is asking too much.  Bet Maryland Wednesday.

15* Lakers/Nuggets NBC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 228

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight in this game between the Lakers and Nuggets.  The Nuggets are 1st in offensive rating while the Lakers are 9th.  The Nuggets are 23rd in defensive rating while the Lakers are 25th.  Denver is 27-16 OVER in all games this season while Los Angeles is 24-17 OVER in all games.

Three of the last four meetings between the Lakers and Nuggets have seen 228 or more combined points.  The Lakers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 236 or more combined points in four of those five, and 248 or more in three of them.  The Nuggets are 3-1 OVER in their last four games with 227 or more combined points in three of the four.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Heat/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 238

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in pace this season by a wide margin.  They are fully healthy right now with the exception of Tyler Herro, and they have actually been better offensively without him as they seem to play more together as a team with better ball movement.

The Heat are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall combining for 242 points with the Thunder, 248 with the Suns and 247 with the Warriors in three of their last four games.  They have played five straight elite defensive teams, and now they take a step down in class here against the Sacramento Kings.

The Kings rank 27th in defensive rating and they aren't getting any better defensively any time soon.  But they have gotten much better offensively with the return of LaVine and Sabonis among others.  The Kings have scored at least 110 points during their 4-1 stretch in their last five games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Vanderbilt/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Arkansas ML -120

Arkansas is 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They beat Louisville 89-80 as 1.5-point home dogs and Tennessee 86-75 as 1.5-point home dogs to highlight their best home wins.  They can certainly handle Vanderbilt tonight.

The Commodores have been exposed after jumping out to a 16-0 start this season against a soft schedule.  They have lost their last two games, getting blown out 80-64 as 4.5-point favorites at Texas and falling 98-94 at home to Florida.  They will now be playing in their 3rd different city in 7 days and I question how much they have left in the tank tonight.  Bet Arkansas on the Money Line Tuesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +18.5

Iowa ranks 344th in adjusted tempo and 343rd in average length of offensive possession.  Playing at a snail's pace allows them to be competitive with good teams, but also to allow bad teams to be competitive with them.  It's a profile that has a team like Iowa always playing to their level of competition.

Rutgers plays a similar style ranking 292nd in adjusted tempo and 209th in average length of offensive possession. The Scarlet Knights are in no hurry, either, so this game won't see very many possessions at all.  That's going to make it tough for Iowa to get margin and win this game by 19 points or more, which is what it will take to beat us.

The Scarlet Knights are 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in their last five games and playing their best basketball of the season.  They upset both Northwestern and Oregon, only lost by 7 at home to Ohio State as 9.5-point dogs and by 9 at Wisconsin as 15.5-point dogs.

The Hawkeyes are in a tough spot here playing in their 3rd different city in 7 days.  After coming up short at Purdue 79-72, they came back and upset Indiana 74-57 on the road.  That's a struggling Hoosiers team that the Hawkeyes are getting too much respect for beating handily.  It sets them up for a letdown spot here at home.  Bet Rutgers Tuesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Miami/Kent State OVER 167

Miami Ohio is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Redhawks are averaging 93.9 points per game this season.  They rank 36th in adjusted tempo and 75th in adjusted offense.  They are 12-4 OVER in all games this season and they have combined for 159 or more points with their opponents in eight of their last nine games overall.

Kent State plays even faster, ranking 21st in adjusted tempo, 104th in adjusted offense and just 245th in adjusted defense.  The Golden Flashes really profile as an OVER team.  They have gone 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall combining for at least 168 points in all four games.  

Kent State is 12-4 OVER in all games this season and 7-2 OVER in home games.  The Golden Flashes are scoring 90.2 points per game and I could see both teams getting into the 90's tonight.  This total of 167 is actually pretty short for a game involving these two teams given their profiles.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis/Duquesne OVER 165

St. Louis is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Billikens rank 31st in adjusted tempo and 7th in average length of offensive possession.  They are 40th in adjusted offense including 3rd in effective FG percentage.  They are scoring 91.7 points per game this season and haven't played a single OT game.

Duquesne is also a dead nuts OVER team.  The Dukes rank 41st in adjusted tempo, 127th in adjusted offense and 162nd in adjusted defense.  They are 12-4 OVER in all games this season and 7-2 OVER at home.  They are scoring 84.4 points per game and allowing 77.7 points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Seton Hall +11.5

Seton Hall is 14-4 SU & 11-7 ATS this season as one of the most improved teams in the Big East.  But this is a 'buy low' spot on the Pirates after a 77-66 upset home loss to Butler as 6.5-point favorites.  They shot 35.9% overall and 17.6% from 3-point range.

I think the Pirates let their 69-64 loss to UConn the game prior beat them twice.  They shot just 6.3% from 3-point range against UConn.  It's safe to say the Pirates are due some positive shooting regression after those two performances.

It's time to 'sell high' on St. John's.  The Red Storm are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are coming off a big 86-79 road win at Villanova.  This looks like the letdown spot for the Red Storm.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this rivalry.  In fact, the Pirates have actually gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to St. John's.  They will take this game to the wire tonight and get the cover.  Bet Seton Hall Tuesday.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Florida State/Miami OVER 165.5

Miami really profiles as an OVER team ranking 87th in adjusted tempo, 50th in average length of offensive possession and 48th in adjusted offense.  Miami is 10-1 OVER in all home games this season scoring 95.2 points per game at home.

The Hurricanes will likely hang 100 on the Florida State Seminoles tonight.  The Seminoles rank 14th in adjusted tempo and 10th in average length of offensive possession, so they really want to get up and down.  They rank 96th in adjusted offense and 164th in adjusted defense, which is really poor for a Power 4 team.  They recently allowed 91 points to Duke, 113 to NC State and 94 to Syracuse in three of their last four games which all saw 178 or more combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Akron/Buffalo OVER 168.5

Akron is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Zips rank 33rd in adjusted tempo, 23rd in average length of offensive possession, 16th in adjusted offense and 2nd in effective FG percentage.  The Zips are averaging 93.6 points per game this season despite not playing a single OT game.  They rank just 217th in adjusted defense.

Buffalo is a great offensive team ranking 94th in adjusted offense but even worse than Akron defensively ranking 303rd in adjusted defense.  The Bulls rank 29th in effective FG percentage on offense and 269th on defense.  They scoring 81.2 points per game.

Buffalo is 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall going for 168 or more combined points three times.  Akron is 10-6 OVER in all games this season and coming off 193 combined points in a 104-89 win over Western Michigan.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Heat/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 239

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in pace this season by a wide margin.  They are fully healthy right now with the exception of Tyler Herro, and they have actually been better offensively without him as they seem to play more together as a team with better ball movement.

The Heat are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 242 points with the Thunder and 248 with the Suns in two of their last three games.  They have played four straight elite defensive teams, and now they take a step down in class here against the Warriors.

The Warriors are an OVER team as long as Steph Curry is healthy, and that is playing out here in recent games.  The Warriors are coming off a 126-113 win over the Knicks for 239 combined points in a game that Jalen Brunson sat out.  They followed it up with a 136-116 win over the Hornets for 252 combined points.  They have scored at least 119 points in five of their last six games and they will hang a big number on the Heat tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Celtics/Pistons NBC No-Brainer on Detroit -3

The Detroit Pistons just had four days off in a row recently and will be playing just their 4th game in 12 days.  They are fully healthy, rested and primed for a big effort tonight against the Boston Celtics, one of their biggest contenders to win the East.

The Pistons are 16-4 at home this season, so this is a short number for them to be laying at home.  They have also matched up well with the Celtics this season going 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS winning by 6 at home and 7 on the road, and losing by 3 on the road.  This is the 4th and final meeting, and they know how important this game is to get home-court advantage in the East with the tiebreaker.

The Celtics will be playing their 4th consecutive road game and are in the much worse rest spot.  Joe Mazzula is the favorite to win Coach of the Year getting the most out of this team to this point.  But I think the Celtics are getting too much respect here.  This line indicates these are even teams, and that's just not the case.  The Pistons are superior and it will show tonight.  Bet the Pistons Monday.

15* CBB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Providence/Marquette OVER 166

Providence is a dead nuts OVER team and the books have failed to catch up with it this season.  The Friars rank 13th in adjusted tempo, 21st in average length of offensive possession, 31st in adjusted offense and 153rd in adjusted defense.

Providence is 13-5 OVER in all games this season.  The Friars are scoring 88.9 points per game and allowing 85.3 points per game.  The OVER is 4-0 in their last four Big East games going for 181 combined points with Creighton, 190 with Villanova, 181 with Xavier and 201 with UConn. This total of 166 is too short for a game involving the Friars right now.

Marquette will gladly run with Providence.  The Golden Eagles rank 80th in adjusted tempo and 17th in average length of offensive possession.  Like the Friars, they are a terrible defensive team ranking 106th in adjusted defense.  In what has been a disappointing season, this is a chance for Marquette to let their hair down and hang a big number on the Friars at home tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Spurs OVER 240

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They play zero defense, and that was on display in their last two games against the Dallas Mavericks, who were missing 4 or 5 starters.

After losing 144-122 on Thursday for 266 combined points with the Mavericks, they weren't any better defensively in the rematch on Saturday losing 138-120 for 258 combined points.  This also came after a 128-126 loss in Chicago for 254 combined points.

The Spurs are coming off a 126-123 home win over the Minnesota Timberwolves for 249 combined points.  The Spurs and Jazz have combined for at least 241 points in each of their last three meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5

The Sacramento Kings are playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall covering the spread by a combined 76 points.  They won all four games by double-digits.  They beat the Rockets by 13 as 14.5-point dogs, the Lakers by 12 as 9.5-point dogs, the Knicks by 11 as 10.5-point dogs and the Wizards by 13 as 7.5-point favorites.

This run has coincided with the Kings getting as healthy as they have been all season.  They now have their two best players back and healthy in LaVine and Sabonis.  They only player they are missing right now is Keegan Murray.  I fully expect them to continue playing well tonight to try and keep this winning streak going.

This is a terrible spot for the Portland Trail Blazers.  They are coming off a 132-116 home win over the Lakers last night, a Lakers team that was missing 3 starters in Reaves, Doncic and Ayton.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 13th game in 22 days.  They are one of the most tired teams in the NBA right now.  They are also extremely banged up with Avdija, Grant and Holiday all candidates to sit out tonight.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Nuggets OVER 227.5

With the quartet of Ball (20.2 PPG, 7.6 APG), Bridges (19.4 PPG), Miller (19.7 PPG) and Knueppel (19.2 PPG) all healthy right now, the Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 245 points with the Jazz, 226 with the Clippers, 252 with the Lakers and 252 with the Warriors.

The Nuggets have been a dead nuts OVER team all season going 27-15 OVER in all games.  They rank 1st in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating.  They have continued being an OVER team even without Nikola Jokic.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall going for 238 combined points with the Pelicans, 227 with the Mavs and 236 with the Wizards.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa/UAB OVER 156.5

Tulsa is a dead nuts OVER team going 11-4 OVER in all games this season and not once going to OT.  The Golden Hurricane rank 44th in adjusted offense and 173rd in adjusted defense.  They are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall and have gone for at least 160 combined points in seven of their last 10 games.  This total of 156.5 is very low for a game involving Tulsa right now.

UAB ranks 90th in adjusted tempo and 116th in adjusted offense.  The Blazers have gone for at least 171 combined points in four of their last seven games overall.  They are scoring 83.4 points per game this season with Tulsa scoring 87.6 points per game.  I expect both teams to get into the 80's today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Oakland/Green Bay OVER 155

Oakland is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Golden Grizzlies rank 25th in adjusted tempo, 69th in adjusted offense and 263rd in adjusted defense.  They are 13-5 OVER in all games this season while scoring 83.5 points per game and allowing 82.3 points per game and have not played an OT game all season.  This total of 155 is very low for a game involving Oakland.

Green Bay is playing its best offense of the season scoring 72 or more points in six straight.  They are coming off 88 points against Cleveland State and 80 against Northern Kentucky.  The Phoenix rank 135th in adjusted offense but just 309th in adjusted defense.  This total of 155 is very low for a game involving two teams that rank this poorly on defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on IPFW -4

I love the spot for IPFW today.  The Mastadons will be out for revenge from a 77-55 road loss at Milwaukee on December 29th.  That was a rare poor performance by them as they shot 36.2% from the field and 21.9% from 3-point range.  They have still gone 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall, and I expect them to have their revenge in the rematch here.

They have the rest advantage after having the last week off.  Milwaukee just lost 73-60 at home to Oakland on Thursday and has just two days to get ready.  The Panthers have been terrible since that win over IPFW, going 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are also without their best player in Seth Hubbard (16.6 PPG) due to injury.  Bet IPFW Sunday.

15* Lakers/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 224.5

The Lakers will be without both Luka Doncic (33.6 PPG, 8.7 RPG) and Austin Reaves (26.6 PPG, 6.3 APG) tonight.  I don't know where the scoring is going to come from from them.  They will have to play more defensive-minded lineups features Marcus Smart (9.4 PPG, 39.4% shooting) and Jarred Vanderbilt (5.1 PPG).

The Portland Trail Blazers have been struggling to score for a while now and have had to go more big lineups with all their injuries.  They are without Deni Avidja (26.1 PPG, 6.9 APG) and Kris Murray (6.1 PPG), plus both Grant (19.8 PPG) and Holiday (15.5 PPG, 7.3 APG) are questionable.

The Blazers are 12-3 UNDER in their last 15 games overall finishing with 225 or fewer combined points in 11 of those 15 games, including 222 or fewer in 10 of them.  This total of 224.5 is very high for a game involving the Blazers and Lakers in their current states.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle +14

It was just announced this week that Gonzaga star F Braden Huff (17.8 PPG, 5.6 RPG) will miss 4-6 weeks with a knee injury.  The Bulldogs were able to overcome his loss to win and cover in a 86-65 win at Washington State on Thursday in their first game without him.  This is the game it comes crashing down on them.

Now the Bulldogs will be playing their 2nd road game in 3 days and short-handed.  They take on a underrated Seattle team that nearly upset them at home already this season.  They won 80-72 as 24.5-point home favorites against Seattle.

The Redhawks only shot 36.1% from the field while the Bulldogs shot 49.2% yet they still only lost by 8 points on the road in that first meeting.  There's room for improvement in the shooting department, and I expect it tonight from a Seattle team that is 8-2 SU at home this season.  The Redhawks will give the Bulldogs a run for their money again tonight and stay within this inflated 14-point spread in the rematch.  Bet Seattle Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Hornets/Warriors OVER 234

With the quartet of Ball (20.4 PPG, 7.8 APG), Bridges (19.7 PPG), Miller (19.4 PPG) and Knueppel (19.0 PPG) all healthy right now, the Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 245 points with the Jazz, 226 with the Clippers and 252 with the Lakers.

The Warriors are an OVER team as long as Stephen Curry is healthy.  He is, and the Warriors and their opponents have combined for at least 233 points in four of their last five games overall.

This is a rematch from a 132-125 road win by the Warriors on December 31st for a whopping 257 combined points.  It will be more of the same in the rematch in Golden State tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs -5.5

I love the spot for the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  They want revenge from a 104-103 road loss to Minnesota just six days ago on January 11th.  They blew a 14-point lead entering the 4th quarter and have not forgotten.  Look for them to get revenge in a big way with a blowout home win over the Timberwolves this time around.

This is a terrible spot for the Timberwolves, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 110-105 road loss to the Houston Rockets last night.  It appears they will get Anthony Edwards back, but Rudy Gobert is questionable after playing 32 minutes last night.  Randle played 40 minutes, DiVincenzo 39 minutes and McDaniels 35 minutes last night.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Spurs tonight.  Bet the Spurs Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Spurs UNDER 228.5

This is a rematch from a 104-103 home win by the Timberwolves just six days ago on January 11th.  That game saw just 207 combined points, and this game will be a defensive battle as well.  This total of 228.5 has been set too high as familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.

The Spurs have been a dead nuts UNDER team since getting Wembenyama back and healthy.  Indeed, the Spurs are 8-0 UNDER in their last eight games overall finishing with 220 or fewer combined points in six consecutive games coming in.

Minnesota is a tired team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 110-105 loss in Houston last night that saw just 215 combined points.  The Timberwolves won't be looking to push the tempo tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Long Beach State/Northridge OVER 157

CS-Northridge is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Matadors rank 12th in adjusted tempo and 19th in average length of offensive possession.  They are 11-6 OVER in all games this season.  The Matadors and their opponents have combined for at least 163 points in six of their last seven games overall.  This total of 157 is very short for a game involving Northridge.

Long Beach State is 8-2 OVER in its last 10 games overall.  The Beach and their opponents have combined for at least 165 points in six of their last seven games overall.  This total of 157 is very short for a game involving the Beach as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Purdue/USC Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on USC +9.5

The USC Trojans are 6-2 SU in their last eight games overall with their only two losses both coming on the road to Michigan and Michigan State.  They upset Minnesota as 3.5-point road dogs and handled Maryland by 17 as 9.5-point home favorites in their last two games coming in.  Now they will relish this opportunity to beat Top 5 ranked Purdue.

The rest situation really favors USC.  The Trojans have had the last three days off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 8 days.  The Boilermakers are coming off a 79-72 home win over Iowa on Wednesday and have just two days off in between games, plus the long travel out to USC for their first trip out West.  They will be playing their 4th game in 11 days as well.

USC is 7-1 SU at home this season where they are scoring 93.3 points per game.  Asking Purdue to go on the road and beat the Trojans by double-digits to beat us is asking too much tonight.  Bet USC Saturday.

15* Big Sky PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Washington/Idaho State OVER 153

Eastern Washington is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Eagles are 12-4 OVER in all games this season including 10-1 OVER in road games.  They are 125th in adjusted tempo, 172nd in adjusted offense and 322nd in adjusted defense.  They have gone for 154 or more combined points in 13 of their 17 games this season, so this total of 153 is very low for a game involving the Eagles.

Idaho State is 7-1 OVER in its last eight games overall.  The Bengals rank 119th in adjusted offense but 275th in adjusted defense.  They Bengals and their opponents have combined for at least 157 points in five of their last six games overall.  This total of 153 is also very short for a game involving Idaho State right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on UCF +9.5

We saw Michigan, Iowa State and Vanderbilt all have their unbeaten records come to an end within the last week.  Arizona is on upset alert today on the road against a UCF team that has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.

It's a huge letdown spot for Arizona, which is coming off a lackluster 79-72 home win over rival Arizona State as 21.5-point favorites.  With their unbeaten record comes expectations from the public and oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  Asking the Wildcats to go on the road and win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

UCF is 11-1 at home this season.  That includes 2-0 in Big 12 play with an upset win over Kansas and a win over Cincinnati.  They followed up that win over Cincinnati with a 82-73 road win at Kansas State as 2.5-point dogs.  They are licking their chops at this opportunity to take down the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  Bet UCF Saturday.

15* Nebraska/Northwestern Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +6

We saw Michigan, Iowa State and Vanderbilt all have their unbeaten records come to an end within the last week.  Now it's Nebraska's turn this week with a road loss to Northwestern Saturday.  With their unbeaten record comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very tough to live up to.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Huskers today.

It's also time to 'buy low' on the Wildcats, who have opened 0-6 in Big Ten play with five losses by 11 points or fewer, so they have been competitive in all but one game.  They just took Illinois to the wire at home last time out, and they will take Nebraska to the wire at home today.

The Wildcats are 8-2 SU in their last 10 meetings with the Huskers with both losses coming by 6 points or fewer, making for a 10-0 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to this 6-point spread.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Missouri ML +105

The LSU Tigers are without their best player in Dedan Thomas Jr. (16.2 PPG, 7.0 APG).  It's no surprise they have gone 0-4 SU in their last four games without him including home losses to both South Carolina and Kentucky.

They are coming off a gutting loss at the buzzer to Kentucky on Wednesday after blowing a big lead in the 2H.  I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and I question their mental state heading into this one.  They only have two days to get ready for this game now.

Missouri is one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Tigers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They upset Florida and Auburn at home, and they upset Kentucky on the road.  Now they are once again underdogs here to this short-handed LSU team.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Missouri on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Ivy League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cornell/Yale OVER 175

Cornell is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Big Red rank 8th in adjusted tempo, 2nd in average length of offensive possession, 64th in adjusted offense, 12th in effective FG percentage offense, 351st in adjusted defense and 353rd in effective FG percentage defense.

The Big Red are 10-3 OVER in all games this season including 7-2 OVER in road games.  They have gone for 173 or more combined points in 12 of their 15 games this season, so this total of 175 isn't even that large for a game involving Cornell.

Yale is an elite offensive team ranking 38th in adjusted offense.  The Bulldogs are a terrible defensive team ranking 240th in adjusted defense.  This game sets up for a great OVER bet.  These teams combined for 191 and 180 points in their two regular season meetings last year.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Summit League PLAY OF THE DAY on South Dakota/North Dakota OVER 158.5

South Dakota is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Coyotes rank 42nd in adjusted tempo and 357th in adjusted defense.  They are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall with 176 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  This total of 158.5 is very short for a game involving South Dakota.

North Dakota is 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall finishing with 160 or more combined points in all four games.  The Fighting Hawks are also a terrible defensive team ranking 335th in adjusted defense.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 158 or more combined points in all five, 171 or more combined points in three of the last four.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Western Michigan/Akron OVER 167

Akron is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Zips rank 29th in adjusted tempo, 24th in average length of offensive possession, 20th in adjusted offense and 4th in effective FG percentage.  The Zips are averaging 93.0 points per game this season despite not playing a single OT game.

Western Michigan is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games overall.  The Broncos are a terrible defensive team ranking 301st in adjusted defense.  I would be surprised if Akron doesn't come close to 100 points today to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.  WMU has scored at least 76 points in five consecutive games and will do their part as well against this suspect Akron defense that ranks 180th in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Buffalo/Miami Ohio OVER 159.5

Miami Ohio is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Redhawks are averaging 93.3 points per game this season and they've only played one OT game.  They rank 46th in adjusted tempo and 75th in adjusted offense.  They are 11-4 OVER in all games this season and they have combined for 159 or more points with their opponents in seven of their last eight games overall.  This total of 159.5 is very short for a game involving Miami Ohio.

Buffalo profiles as an OVER team with a great offense that ranks 103rd in adjusted offense and a terrible defense at 306th in adjusted defense.  The Bulls are 9-6 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 79.9 points per game and haven't played an OT game all season.  The Bulls are 3-0 OVER in their last three games going for 168 combined points with Kent State and 171 with Ohio in their last two games coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Kentucky/Tennessee ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -5.5

Tennessee is 10-0 at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The Vols have recent home wins over Louisville by 21, Texas by 14 and Texas A&M by 5.  They will make easy work of this overrated Kentucky team, too.

Kentucky is 1-2 SU in true road games with the lone win coming at the buzzer against an LSU team that was missing their best player.  They also lost by 15 at Alabama and by 8 at Louisville, a common opponent that the Vols blasted by 21.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* CAA PLAY OF THE DAY on Elon/Hofstra OVER 149.5

Elon is a dead nuts OVER team going 12-4 OVER in all lined games this season.  The Phoenix rank 82nd in adjusted offense and 294th in adjusted defense.  The Phoenix and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in six of their last seven games overall, and 160 or more in 14 of their 18 games this season.  This total of 149.5 is very low for a game involving Elon.

Hofstra is also a very good offensive team ranking 100th in adjusted offense.  The Pride are 10-6 OVER in all games this season.  The Pride are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Baylor/Kansas FOX ANNIHILATOR on OVER 155.5

Baylor is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bears rank 14th in adjusted offense and 94th in adjusted defense.  They are 9-6 OVER in all games this season and scoring 88.7 points per game.  Baylor and its opponents have combined for at least 155 points in 12 of their 16 games this season.  This total of 155 is very short for a game involving the Bears.

The Jayhawks have been a juggernaut offensively when Darryn Peterson (21.8 PPG) has been on the court.  Well, he has only played in eight games this season, but he has been healthy for Big 12 play and the offense is thriving.  The Jayhawks have averaged 82.9 points per game in the eight games in which Peterson has played.  He may be the best player in the country, and he's certainly the best scorer.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Cavs/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia ML -118

I love the spot for the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  The 76ers want revenge from a 133-107 home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday.  Now they get their shot at quick revenge here two days later at home.  They will be the more motivated team tonight.

The Cavaliers shot 52.6% from the field and 43.5% from 3-point range, while the 76ers had one of their worst shooting nights of the season, making 40.4% from the field and 27.9% from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen again.

While the 76ers are fully healthy with only Dominick Barlow (8.3 PPG) questionable, the Cavaliers will be down two key players that they had in that first meeting.  Both Darius Garland (18.0 PPG, 6.9 APG) and Sam Merrill (13.8 PPG) will be out for this game after getting injured on Wednesday.  Garland in particular was having a huge game with 20 points and 7 assists before departing.  Not having Merrill's shooting makes the Cavaliers much easier to defend.

This line is basically the same as it was in that first meeting as well, and there has to be an adjustment for not having Garland and Merrill.  There also has to be an adjustment for the fact that the 76ers will be the more motivated team for revenge, while the Cavaliers will relax and won't be that motivated to beat this team again.  Bet the 76ers on the Money Line Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Toledo/Kent State OVER 169.5

Kent State is a dead nuts OVER team going 11-4 OVER in all games this season including 6-2 OVER in home games.  The Golden Flashes are scoring 90.4 points per game overall including 98 points per game at home.  They rank 19th in adjusted tempo, 103rd in adjusted offense and 245th in adjusted defense.

Toledo has a similar profile ranking 111th in adjusted tempo, 101st in adjusted offense and 263rd i adjusted defense.  The Rockets are scoring 82.7 points per game and have not played an OT game yet.  They are coming off a 101-85 home win over Ohio for 186 combined points.

Kent State's last three MAC games have seen 189 combined points with Bowling Green, 172 with Central Michigan and 168 with Buffalo.  None of those teams are as potent as this Toledo offense.  The Golden Flashes will control the tempo playing at home in what will be an absolute shootout tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on CS-Northridge/UC-San Diego OVER 159

CS-Northridge is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Matadors rank 11th in adjusted tempo and 19th in average length of offensive possession.  They are 10-6 OVER in all games this season including 6-2 OVER in all road games.  The Matadors and their opponents have combined for at least 165 points in five of their last six games overall.

UC-San Diego is a solid offensive team ranking 85th in adjusted offense and a mediocre defensive team ranking 141st in adjusted defense.  The Tritons have scored at least 80 points in nine of their last 13 games overall.  They will easy top 80 points here against Northridge, which ranks 223rd in adjusted defense.  Northridge has scored at least 79 points in eight of their last nine games overall.  I expect both teams to get into the 80's in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE WEEK on CS-Fullerton/UC-Davis OVER 167.5

Fullerton is a dead nuts OVER team scoring 86.7 points per game and allowing 85.6 points per game this season.  They still haven't played an OT game, either.  The Titans rank 4th in adjusted tempo and 4th in average length of offensive possession.  They rank 240th in adjusted defense and 340th in effective FG percentage (56.4%) defense as well.

UC-Davis is 9-5 OVER in all games this season.  The Aggies are scoring 81.0 points per game and also have not played an OT game yet.  UC-Davis is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games overall finishing with 169 or more combined points in 3 of their last 5 games, and 160 or more in six straight.  The Aggies have scored at least 81 points in six consecutive games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Thunder/Rockets NBA ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 222.5

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 28th in pace and 9th in defensive rating.  They have gone 6-1 UNDER in their last seven games overall with 216 or fewer combined points in six of those seven games.  This total of 222.5 is very high for a game involving the Rockets, who have been held to 105 points or fewer in five of their last six games so they are struggling mightily offensively right now.

The Oklahoma City Thunder rank 1st in defensive rating by a wide margin this season.  They just held the Spurs to 98 points last time out, and they will suffocate the Houston Rockets tonight as well.  But I think Houston can hold them in check by slowing the tempo to a snail's pace at home tonight.

In their lone previous meeting this season, the Rockets and Thunder were tied 104-104 at the end of regulation for just 208 combined points.  It will be more of the same in the rematch tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Celtics/Heat NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 233.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in pace this season by a wide margin.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  They are scoring 122.2 points per game and allowing 117.1 points per game at home this season.

The Boston Celtics don't play fast, but they play as efficient as anyone in the NBA with their ability to shoot a ton of 3-pointers at a high clip.  In fact, the Celtics rank 2nd in the NBA in offensive rating, which is a big reason Joe Mazulla is the favorite to win Coach of the Year with his ability to get the most out of this team without Jayson Tatum.

This will be a rematch from a 129-116 home win by the Celtics on December 19th which saw 245 combined points.  The Heat only shot 39% as a team in that game as well.  These teams combined for 92 3-point attempts, and it will be more of the same tonight with a lot of long rebounds and chances to run.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* CAA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Elon/Northeastern OVER 160

Elon is a dead nuts OVER team going 11-4 OVER in all lined games this season.  The Phoenix rank 76th in adjusted offense and 306th in adjusted defense.  The Phoenix and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in five of their last six games overall, and 160 or more in 13 of their 17 games this season.

Northeastern ranks 94th in adjusted tempo, 159th in adjusted offense and 294th in adjusted defense.  The Huskies are 7-0 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 159 or more combined points in all seven games, and 162 or more in six of them.  This total of 160 is too short for a game involving the Huskies and Phoenix.

In fact, we saw that play out already once this season with Elon winning 103-91 over Northeastern on December 29th in their first meeting this season.  That meeting saw 194 combined points, so we have a lot of room to spare in cashing this OVER 160 in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Green Bay/Cleveland State OVER 149

Cleveland State really profiles as an OVER team.  The Vikings rank 101st in adjusted tempo and 354th in adjusted defense.  They are 10-5 OVER in all games this season and have gone for at least 145 combined points in 16 of their 18 games this season, and 152 or more combined points in 13 of those 18 games.  This total of 149 is very low for a game involving Cleveland State.

Green Bay is playing its best offense of the season scoring 72 or more points in five straight.  The Phoenix rank 162nd in adjusted offense but just 310th in adjusted defense.  This total of 149 is very low for a game involving two teams that rank in the 300's in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Horizon League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Robert Morris/IU Indy OVER 158.5

IU Indy ranks 1st in the entire country in adjusted tempo.  They force their opponents to play at a break-neck pace and will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  This total of 158.5 is very short for a game involving IU Indy.  In fact, it's their 2nd-lowest total of the entire season.  There's clearly value with the OVER.

Robert Morris is a perfect 6-0 OVER in its last six games overall with 153 or more combined points in five of those six games.  The Colonials are a solid offensive team ranking 151st in adjusted offense but a terrible defensive team ranking 257th in adjusted defense.  IU Indy is even worse on defense, ranking 357th in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +9.5

It's time to 'buy low' on Northwestern after a 0-5 start in Big Ten play and 'sell high' on Illinois after a 4-1 start in Big Ten play.  Asking the Fighting Illini to go on the road and win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

Northwestern could easily be 4-1 instead of 0-5 in Big Ten play.  Four of their losses have come by a combined 22 points, and none of those came by more than 10 points.  Illinois has played two true road games all season winning by 8 at Ohio State and by 6 at Iowa.

The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Northwestern pulled off the outright upset in each of the last two meetings in Evanston.  The Wildcats haven't lost a home game by more than 6 points all season.  Bet Northwestern Wednesday.

15* Summit League PLAY OF THE DAY on SDSU/NDSU OVER 148

South Dakota State is a perfect 6-0 OVER in its last six games overall.  The Jackrabbits and their opponents have combined for at least 153 points in seven consecutive games overall.  This total of 148 is very low for a game involving SDSU right now.

North Dakota State is 5-1-1 OVER in its last seven games overall.  The Bison and their opponents have combined for at least 154 points in three straight, and 147 or more in seven of their last nine games overall.  This total of 148 is pretty low for a game involving the Bison as well.

NDSU ranks 130th in adjusted offense but just 173rd in adjusted defense.  SDSU ranks 169th in adjusted offense but just 226th in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +8

Temple is playing too well to be a 8-point road underdog to Memphis tonight.  The Owls are 7-0 SU in their last seven games overall including outright upset wins over Davidson and Charlotte on the road.

This is the worst Memphis team of the Penny Hardaway era.  The Tigers are 7-8 this season and have just one double-digit scorer on their roster.  They rank 148th in adjusted offense as scoring has been a real problem, which makes it difficult to get margin.  They also rank 337th in turnover percentage turning it over on 20.5% of their offensive possessions.

The Tigers are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their three wins came over Alabama State, North Texas and Rice.  They have had just two days to get ready for this game after a 89-78 loss at FAU on Sunday, while Temple has had the last six days off and has a big rest advantage as a result.  

The Owls are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Memphis not once losing by double-digits.  Bet Temple Wednesday.

15* Cavs/76ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 235

Both the Cavaliers and 76ers are as healthy as they have been all season.  And when they are this healthy, they are two of the best offensive teams in the NBA.  This figures to be a shootout tonight with elite offense on both sides.

The Cavaliers and their opponents have gone for at least 235 combined points in each of their last four games.  That includes 280 and 253 in their two meetings with Minnesota.

The 76ers are thriving offensively right now scoring 115 or more points in seven of their last eight games overall.  That includes 123 or more in five of those.  With Embiid, George, Maxey, Edecombe, Grimes, Oubre and Barlow all healthy right now, the 76ers are potent offensively.  

The OVER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between the 76ers and Cavaliers.  They combined for 253 and 261 points in their last two meetings.  This total of 235 is way too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Auburn/Missouri OVER 153

Auburn is 11-5 OVER in all games this season.  The Tigers and their opponents have combined for at least 152 points in 14 of their 16 games this season.  This total of 153 is very low for a game involving Auburn.

Auburn ranks 9th in the country in adjusted offense this season.  They are scoring 87.5 points per game overall.  Missouri ranks 48th in adjusted offense while averaging 81.7 points per game overall, including 89.8 points per game at home.  Both teams prefer to play fast on offense as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Tulsa/Charlotte OVER 147

Tulsa is a dead nuts OVER team going 10-4 OVER in all games this season and not once going to OT.  The Golden Hurricane and their opponents have combined for at least 147 points in 13 of their 16 games this season.  They rank 44th in adjusted offense and 180th in adjusted defense.

Charlotte is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall going for 147 or more combined points in five of those six games.  The 49ers rank 114th in adjusted offense but just 269th in adjusted defense.  So this game will feature efficient offense up against some really bad defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Kentucky -3.5

LSU is coming off three consecutive losses including the last two by double-digits with a 10-point home loss to South Carolina and a 11-point road loss at Vanderbilt.  This poor play has coincided with the loss of their best player in Dedan Thomas Jr. (16.2 PPG, 7.0 APG).  They are a very poor team without him and it's showing.

LSU will be without Thomas Jr. again tonight when they take on Kentucky, a Wildcats team that is rapidly improving.  The Wildcats are 5-2 SU in their last seven games overall with impressive wins over St. John's by 12, Indiana by 12 and Mississippi State by 24.  Their only losses came to Alabama and Missouri.  They will make easy work of the short-handed Tigers tonight.  Bet Kentucky Wednesday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on ECU/USF OVER 156.5

South Florida is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bulls rank 17th in adjusted tempo and 18th in average length of offensive possession.  They are scoring 91.1 points per game on the season and allowing 79.8 points per game.  11 of their 16 games this season have seen 156 or more combined points.

East Carolina will have no problem getting up and down with the Bulls.  The Pirates rank 92nd in adjusted tempo this season.  They are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall and coming off a 87-85 loss to UAB for 172 combined points.  UAB is a team that profiles similarly to USF.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Big Ten Total DOMINATOR on Iowa/Purdue UNDER 144.5

Iowa is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Hawkeyes rank 339th in adjusted tempo and 20th in adjusted defense.  This total of 144.5 is very high for a game involving the Hawkeyes.  They have gone for 144 or fewer combined points in nine of their last 11 games overall.

Purdue also plays at a snail's pace ranking 287th in adjusted tempo.  The Boilermakers are also elite defensively ranking 22nd in adjusted defense.  This game will see very few possessions which means fewer opportunities for points, and fewer opportunities to foul to get either team in the bonus.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Atlanta Hawks -3

The Lakers are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 16 in San Antonio as 9-point dogs, by 4 at home to the Bucks as 3-point favorites and by 12 at Sacramento as 9.5-point favorites.  That was a short-handed Kings team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back last night, too.

Now the Lakers are in the bad spot playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  LeBron James is 50/50 to play tonight, and Luke Doncic suffered an injury in the 2H of the loss to the Kings that may keep him out tonight.  Both are listed as questionable.  Not to mention, the Lakers are already without Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura.

The Hawks are rolling going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall beating the Pelicans by 17 as 10.5-point home favorites, the Nuggets by 23 as 3-point road favorites and the Warriors by 13 as 7-point road dogs.  Getting CJ McCollum in the trade with the Wizards for Trae Young is a very underrated move in their favor.

McCollum (18.6 PPG) gives the Hawks an extra scorer AND he actually plays defense, unlike Young.  Jalen Johnson (23.7 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 8.2 APG) is the most improved player in the NBA, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (20.6 PPG) has taken his game to the next level.  Okongwu (16.3 PPG, 7.9 RPG) is one of the more underrated big men in the league, too.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Baylor/Oklahoma State OVER 165.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on an OVER.  Baylor went under the total in each of its last three games against arguably the three best defensive teams in the Big 12 in TCU, Iowa State and Houston.  Oklahoma State went under the total in each of its last two games against UCF and Iowa State.  But these are two dead nuts OVER teams and things will come much easier for both offensively tonight.

Oklahoma State ranks 4th in adjusted tempo, 38th in averaging length of offensive possession and 62nd in adjusted offense.  The Cowboys had gone 4-0 OVER in their previous four games combining for 170 points with UMKC, 183 with Fullerton, 180 with Bethune-Cookman and 182 with Texas Tech.

Baylor is an elite offensive team ranking 20th in adjusted offense but one of the worst defensive teams in the Big 12 ranking 96th in adjusted defense.  The Bears also prefer to play faster ranking 127th in adjusted tempo.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma State +1

Oklahoma State is 11-0 at home this season with a 87-76 win as 2-point favorites over UCF in their lone Big 12 home game this season.  That performance was sandwiched between a pair of road losses to Texas Tech and Iowa State, two of the best teams in the Big 12.  Now they take a big step down in class here against Baylor.

The Bears have been dreadful in their last three games going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS.  They lost by 6 as 3-point dogs at TCU, then were blown out by 10 at home by Iowa State and by 22 at home by Houston.  They are a tired team playing their 3rd game in 7 days, and their tired legs will be tested by an Oklahoma State team that ranks 4th in adjusted tempo.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Oklahoma State Tuesday.

15* Spurs/Thunder NBC ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -7.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 33-7 this season.  Three of those losses have come to the San Antonio Spurs.  It's safe to say the Thunder will be max motivated playing with triple-revenge tonight, and I expect to see them put forth their best effort of the season as a result.

I expect the Spurs to be 'fat and happy' knowing they've already beaten this team three times.  They have zero motivation to beat them a 4th time as they have already won the season series.  This will be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Spurs after playing two wars in Boston and Minnesota.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Thunder after failing to cover the spread in five consecutive games coming into this one.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time only missing Isaiah Hartenstein as their lone key contributor that will sit this one out.  The Spurs are without Devin Vassell (14.9 PPG).  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks -3

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  They were coming off a 105-101 road win over the Lakers and had a letdown last time out in a 108-104 loss to the short-handed Nuggets on the road.  Now they are refocused back at home taking on a border rival in the Minnesota Timberwolves.  They also want revenge from a 103-100 loss in Minnesota in their first meeting.

The Timberwolves are a tired, banged up team right now.  They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days off two straight wars against Cleveland and San Antonio.  They will be resting Anthony Edwards (28.9 PPG), and Rudy Gobert (11.0 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 1.7 BPG) has been suspended.

The Bucks are pretty much fully healthy right now with Giannis looking like his best self again.  He is going to be able to attack the rim at will with no Gobert for rim protection, and that will be the difference in this game with the Bucks getting whatever they want at the rim in this game.  Not having to worry about Anthony Edwards is a big deal, too.  Milwaukee should be a much bigger favorite tonight.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall +6.5

UConn is a tired team right now which is a big reason the Huskies are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They failed to cover in a home win over Marquette, needed OT to beat Providence as double-digit favorites on the road, and were flat in a 12-point home win over DePaul as 19.5-point favorites.

Now the Huskies will be playing their 4th game in 10 days tonight and have to hit the road again to take on a very gritty, tough Seton Hall team.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank, and this is a game they could easily lose outright.

Seton Hall is one of the most improved teams in the country this season going 14-2 SU & 10-6 ATS.  Their two losses came by 2 points to USC and by 8 to Villanova.  They have opened 4-1 in Big East play with three road wins already.  Now they are home where they are 8-1 SU this season and it will be a raucous atmosphere with Top 10 UConn coming to town.  Bet Seton Hall Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Heat OVER 230

This is a very low total for a game involving the Miami Heat tonight.  The Heat rank 1st in pace this season and are scoring 121.9 points per game at home.  They will control the pace playing at home tonight.

The Suns have a lot more firepower now that they are healthy with Grayson Allen back and healthy.  He and Collin Gillespie are 3-point snipers, and both play big minutes.  That frees up a lot of things for Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks offensively when opponents have to worry about that outside shooting.

The Suns have gone under the total in five consecutive games which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  The Heat are also coming off two of their worst offensive performances of the season in two of their last three games to keep this total lower than it should be.  This is a great opportunity to 'buy low' on a over.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Valparaiso/Belmont OVER 148.5

This total of 148.5 is very low for a game involving Belmont.  The Bruins are 8-3 OVER in their last 11 games overall.  They have gone for 151 or more combined points in nine of their last 13 games overall.  

The Bruins rank 84th in adjusted tempo, 29th in average length of offensive possession and 64th in adjusted offense.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

Vaplaraiso is 6-3 OVER in its last nine games overall.  The Beacons and their opponents have combined for at least 148 points in four of their last seven games.  They went for 164 combined points with Murray State, 171 with Murray State, and 156 with Northwestern recently.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kent State/Buffalo OVER 162.5

Kent State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Golden Flashes are 10-4 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 23rd in adjusted tempo, 103rd in adjusted offense and 249th in adjusted defense.  The Golden Flashes and their opponents have combined for at least 161 points in 13 of their 16 games this season.

Buffalo is a perfect 5-0 OVER in all home games this season.  The Bulls rank 100th in adjusted offense and 298th in adjusted defense.  Like Kent State, the Bulls are much better on offense than they are on defense, making this a perfect match for an OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Lakers -9

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  They are coming off consecutive losses to the Spurs on the road and the Bucks at home.  They have had the last two days off, so they will be rested, motivated and ready to go tonight against the lowly Sacramento Kings.

This is a terrible spot for the Kings, who are coming off a 111-98 upset win as 14.5-point dogs to the Rockets last night.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.

The Kings are already short-handed playing without Sabonis (17.2 PPG, 12.3 RPG), Murray (14.6 PPG) and Schroder (13.0 PPG).  They aren't very equipped to handle these back-to-backs right now.  They will be running on fumes tonight.

The Lakers own the Kings, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings including a 125-101 win in their most recent meeting on December 28th.  The Lakers are 13-6 SU & 11-8 ATS on the road this season.  They are fully healthy outside Austin Reaves heading into this one.  Bet the Lakers Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers -3.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off a 116-115 (OT) loss at Toronto on Sunday.  They will be max motivated for revenge here in the rematch.  They also played without Joel Embiid and Paul George yesterday.  There's a good chance one or both return for this game, especially Embiid.

The Raptors played without RJ Barrett, Brandon Ingram and Jacob Poeltl yesterday.  Barrett and Poeltl have already been ruled out for the rematch, and Ingram is battling a hand injury that has him questionable again.

I question how motivated the Raptors will be to beat this team for a 2nd consecutive day.  They are also much worse off in the depth department than the 76ers, so they aren't equipped to handle these back-to-backs as well.  The 76ers are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.

Bets on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points when revenging two straight losses where opponent scored 100 or more points when they are off an upset win over a division opponent as an underdog are 54-21 (72%) ATS since 1997.  The 76ers are 11-7 SU & 13-5 ATS in all road games this season.  Bet the 76ers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Hawks/Warriors OVER 235

The Atlanta Hawks have been an OVER team with or without Trae Young.  His absence hasn't slowed them down one bit as they rank 2nd in pace this season behind only the Miami Heat.  They will continue playing at a break-neck pace the rest of the way with CJ McCollum making his Atlanta debut tonight.

The Golden State Warriors are more of an OVER team as long as Steph Curry is in the lineup, and he is in the lineup and playing well right now.  The Warriors have scored at least 119 points in 12 of their last 15 games overall.  They will hang a big number on the Hawks to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.

The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between the Hawks and Warriors.  They have combined for at least 239 points in six of those eight meetings.  This total of 235 is too short for a game involving the Hawks and Warriors right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -1.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are 3-1 SU in their last four games overall and are playing well now that Giannis is back and healthy.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NBA overall.

The same cannot be said for the Nuggets, who are one of the most injury-plagued teams in the NBA right now.  They are without Jokic, Johnson and Valanciunas with Murray and Jones both questionable tonight.

Those injuries finally caught up to them with a 110-87 home loss to the Hawks in their last game.  The Nuggets just returned home from a 7-game road trip and are running on fumes.  They will be playing their 5th game in 8 days here and they haven't had consecutive days off since December 16-17.  Bet the Bucks Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Thunder OVER 233.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in pace.  They are coming off two of their worst offensive performances of the season scoring 94 points on the Timberwolves and 99 points on the Pacers.  This gives us the opportunity to 'buy low' on a Miami OVER tonight.

The Heat had scored at least 115 points in each of their previous six games and averaged 128.8 points per game in those six games.  They will get back to their high-scoring ways today.

The Thunder get a lot of guys back tonight including Shai and Holmgren.  They will be as close to full strength as they have been in a while, and a potent offensive team when that's the case.  They have scored at least 124 points in five of their last eight games overall and will hang a big number on the Heat to pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Heat -7.5

I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight.  They had their game against the Bulls postponed on Thursday due to condensation from a leak in the roof.  So they have had the last three days off and are champing at the bit to get back on the court.

The Heat are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only two losses coming to the Timberwolves, who are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  It was clearly a bad matchup for them.  They beat the Hawks by 15 and the Pistons by 6 in two road games during this stretch, while also rushing the Pacers by 26, the Nuggets by 24 and the Pelicans by 19 at home.

The Heat are as healthy as they have been all season as they have everyone available except perhaps Jaime Jaquez, who is listed as questionable.  Injuries are a big reason the Pacers are just 7-31 this season.  They are without Mathurin (17.8 PPG), Toppin (14.0 PPG) and Jackson (7.3 PPG, 5.9 RPG), plus Nembhard (17.2 PPG) is questionable.

This is a terrible spot for the Pacers.  They ended their 13-game losing streak with a 114-112 win at Charlotte last time out.  They took advantage of a tired Hornets team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Now that they finally ended that losing streak, they will relax.  The Pacers are also a tired team not having consecutive days off since before Christmas.  The Heat will run them out of the gym similar to their 142-116 win over the Pacers on December 27th in their most recent meeting.  Bet the Heat Saturday.

15* Big West Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Northridge/Fullerton OVER 174

Cal State Fullerton is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Titans rank 7th in adjusted tempo, 5th in average length of offensive possession and 242nd in adjusted defense.  They are 9-6 OVER in all games this season and haven't gone to OT once.

Cal-State Northridge will gladly run with them.  The Matadors rank 10th in adjusted tempo, 19th in average length of offensive possession and 234th in adjusted defense.  They are 10-5 OVER in all games this season despite not once going to OT.  They are also 6-1 OVER in road games.  The books have failed to set this total high enough given how many possession will be in this game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CAA PLAY OF THE DAY on Campbell/Elon OVER 160

Elon is 10-4 OVER in all games this season including 6-1 OVER in home games.  What makes the Phoenix such an OVER team is ranking 77th in adjusted offense but just 294th in adjusted defense.  They have gone for 160 or more combined points with their opponents in 11 of their 16 games this season.

Campbell is the perfect OVER partner for Elon.  The Camels rank 51st in adjusted tempo, 157th in adjusted offense but just 249th in adjusted defense.  So these are two teams that are much better on offense than they are on defense.  The Camels are 9-6 OVER in all games this season finishing with 158 or more combined points in 11 of their 17 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Arkansas/Auburn ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 169.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off today when Arkansas visits Auburn.  This game has the makings of one of the biggest shootouts of the day, and it's a night game on National TV on ESPN so both teams will be extra amped for it.

Auburn is 11-4 OVER in all games this season.  The Tigers have an elite offense ranking 13th in adjusted offense but one of the worst defenses in the SEC ranking 106th in adjusted defense.  They have gone for 170 or more combined points in four of their last five games overall, including 204 with Georgia and 178 with Texas A&M in their last two.

Arkansas is 6-0 OVER in its last six games overall going for 177 or more combined points in five of those six games.  The Razorbacks rank 25th in adjusted tempo, 21st in average length of offensive possession and 12th in adjusted offense.  Calipari has the Razorbacks playing efficient offense at a break-neck pace this season.  

The Razorbacks have scored 85 or more points in six consecutive games, including against some very good defensive teams in Texas Tech, Houston, Tennessee and Ole Miss.  They are scoring on everyone, and they will hang a big number on this poor Auburn defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big West PLAY OF THE DAY on UC-Davis/Cal Poly OVER 167.5

Cal Poly is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in adjusted tempo, 8th in average length of offensive possession and 223rd in adjusted defense.  The Mustangs are 9-6 OVER in all games thsi season and coming off a 95-90 loss to Northridge for 185 combined points.

UC Davis is a dead nuts OVER team as well going 9-4 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 110th in adjusted tempo, 65th in average length of offensive possession, 133rd in adjusted offense and 212th in adjusted defense.  The Aggies are 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall with 160 or more combined points in six of their last seven games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma State +18.5

You're paying a tax to back the Iowa State Cyclones now after opening 15-0 SU & 9-6 ATS this season.  That's especially the case after opening Big 12 play with a pair of wins and covers over West Virginia and Baylor, two of the worst teams in the conference.

Oklahoma State will offer some resistance here.  The Cowboys are coming off a 87-76 home win over UCF as 2-point favorites on Tuesday.  They have had the last three days off, while the Cyclones have only had the last two days off since winning at Baylor on Wednesday, plus the travel in between.

Few teams have dominated Iowa State like Oklahoma State has.  In fact, the Cowboys are 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Cyclones with one of those losses coming in OT.  Asking the Cyclones to beat them by 19-plus points to beat us is asking too much today.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* AAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on South Florida/Tulsa OVER 164.5

Tulsa is 9-4 OVER in all games this season including 4-1 OVER at home.  The Golden Hurricane rank 41st in adjusted offense but just 143rd in adjusted defense.  They are an elite shooting team ranking 20th in effective FG percentage (57.8%) and 5th in 3-point percentage (41.2%).

South Florida is 8-6 OVER in all games this season including 3-1 OVER in road games.  What makes the Bulls an OVER team is ranking 18th in adjusted tempo and 17th in average length of offensive possession.  They are also a solid offensive team ranking 78th in adjusted offense.

What's keeping this total lower than it should be is both teams coming off games against teams that play extremely slow.  They both played North Texas in their last game and went under the total.  North Texas ranks 338th in adjusted tempo, 285th in adjusted offense and 34th in adjusted defense.  This game will play out much differently.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big East Saturday Total DOMINATOR on St. John's/Creighton UNDER 156.5

Creighton ranks 231st in adjusted tempo and 46th in adjusted defense.  The Bluejays are much more of a defensive team this season with one of the worst offenses of the Greg McDermott era.  This is a very high total for a game involving the Bluejays, who are 11-5 UNDER in all games this season with 155 or fewer combined points in 11 of those 16 games.

St. John's is 10-5 UNDER in all games this season.  The Red Storm rank 21st in adjusted defense and are once again a dominant defensive team under Rick Pitino.  They are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games overall finishing with 155 or fewer combined points in seven of those nine games.

St. John's and Creighton have combined for 152 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings, making for a 6-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 156.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Denver/South Dakota OVER 172.5

Denver is a perfect 15-0 OVER in all games this season as the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in each of their last 12 lined games.  This total of 172.5 is too short for a game involving the Pioneers right now.

What makes Denver such an OVER team is that they have a great offense ranking 80th in adjusted offense and one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 362nd in adjusted defense.  They are the 4th-worst defensive team in the country in adjusted defense.

South Dakota is the perfect OVER partner for Denver.  The Coyotes rank 43rd in adjusted tempo this season and 341st in adjusted defense.  They play fast and they play no defense.

South Dakota is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall going for 185 combined points with St. Thomas, 182 with Kansas State, 182 with Prairie View, 185 with Wyoming and 176 with Northern Colorado.  This total of 172.5 is also short in a game involving the Coyotes right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Timberwolves/Cavs NBA Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 239.5

NBA players aren't used to playing this early in the day.  This game will tip at 1:10 EST this afternoon.  Players will be sleep walking through the start of it, and it will take them a while to get going.  I love betting UNDERS in these early games as a result.

I also love betting UNDERS in quick rematches, which we have here.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Minnesota beat Cleveland 131-122 on Thursday in Minnesota, and now they will play each other again in Cleveland just two days later here Saturday.

Cleveland shot 53% as a team on Thursday and will not shoot that well again.  Minnesota shot 57% as a team and 20-of-38 (53%) from 3-point range, and that certainly won't happen again.  Coaches will make the necessary adjustments and the defenses will win out in the rematch.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston -3

Houston is battle-tested having faced the 76th-ranked schedule in the country with wins over the likes of Auburn, Notre Dame, Arkansas and Texas Tech.  The Cougars rank 27th in adjusted offense and 6th in adjusted defense and are once again one of the best teams in the country at 14-1 this season with more experience than they are even accustomed to.  Going into Baylor and coming out with a win today is no big deal to them.

Baylor has struggled time and time again when stepping up in class with four losses already to St. John's, Memphis, TCU and Iowa State.  They weren't very competitive in any of the four games with all four coming by 6 points or more, including a 10-point home loss to Iowa State on Wednesday.

What kills the Bears is they are a terrible defensive team ranking 84th in adjusted defense.  Houston is 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in its last three meetings with Baylor.  This is a short number to be laying for by far the superior team in this matchup today folks.  Bet Houston Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on DePaul +19.5

This is a terrible spot for the UConn Huskies.  They are coming off a 103-98 (OT) road win at Providence on Wednesday.  They have had just two days to recover, and they will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days here as well.  I expect them to be flat as a pancake hosting DePaul today.

The Blue Demons are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are 10-6 SU & 10-6 ATS this season, and I really like what they have done lately.  They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with consecutive home wins over Xavier and Georgetown, as well as a 5-point road loss at Villanova as 12.5-point dogs in their last three games.

The lone non-cover during this 7-game stretch came in a 72-54 home loss to UConn on December 21st as 12.5-point dogs.  Now they get their shot at quick revenge here just three weeks later.  The Huskies won't be motivated at all to beat this team by margin again.  Bet DePaul Saturday.

15* Nebraska/Indiana Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -3.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are overvalued now after a 15-0 start to the season.  They have played a home-heavy schedule and have played just two true road games all season.  This will be their toughest road game yet.

Indiana is 10-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 25.9 points per game.  That includes Big Ten wins over Washington by 10 and Penn State by 41.  It will be a very hostile atmosphere today with ranked, unbeaten Nebraska coming to town and there are few better home-court advantages than Assembly Hall when it's a big game.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Rockets/Blazers UNDER 221.5

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team without star C Alperen Sengun (21.8 PPG, 6.5 APG).  The Portland Trail Blazers are a dead nuts UNDER team in their current form without Holiday (16.7 PPG, 8.3 APG), Grant (20.0 PPG) and Murray (6.1 PPG).

The Rockets are 4-0 UNDER in their last four games overall going for 216 combined points with the Nets, 214 with the Mavericks, 197 with the Suns and 205 with the Blazers.  The Blazers are 9-2 UNDER in their last 11 games overall going for 22 or fewer combined points in seven of those 11 games.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be a rematch from Wednesday when the Blazers beat the Rockets 103-102 at home for 205 combined points.  That total was set at 221, and this total in the rematch is set at 221.5.  Oddsmakers have failed to adjust it down, and we'll take advantage.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Phoenix Suns ML +108

The Phoenix Suns are as healthy as they've been all season and proving they are a legit contender in the West when that's the case.  They have gone 7-2 SU in their last nine games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall as one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now.

After upsetting the Thunder 108-105 as 11.5-point home dogs, the Suns came back the very next night and lost on a buzzer-beater at Houston by 3 as 8.5-point dogs.  In what was supposed to be a flat spot for them, they crushed the Grizzlies 117-98 as 5.5-point favorites last time out.  This team is locked in night in and night out.

They will certainly be locked in hosting the New York Knicks tonight.  This is a tired, struggling, banged up Knicks team that should not be favored on the road tonight.  The Knicks are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall, and 2-9-1 ATS in their 12 games since winning the NBA Cup.  They lost by 31 at Detroit, by 11 at home to Philadelphia as 4.5-point favorites, and by 12 at home to the Hawks as 6.5-point favorites in three of their last four games.

The Knicks are without Josh Hart right now and his importance to this team cannot be overstated based on recent results without him.  The Knicks have one of the biggest home/road splits in the NBA as they are 16-4 SU at home, but just 7-9 SU on the road.  The Suns are 12-5 SU at home.  The Knicks will be playing their 5th game in 8 days and haven't had consecutive days off since the NBA Cup in mid-December.  They are running on fumes right now.  Bet the Suns Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Nuggets OVER 232

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team with or without Trae Young.  They rank 2nd in pace despite playing most of the season without Young.  Their philosophy is to play as fast as possible, and they will continue to do that moving forward.

The Denver Nuggets have been a dead nuts OVER team all season going 24-13 OVER in all games.  They rank 1st in offensive rating and 24th in defensive rating.  They still have plenty of firepower without Nikola Jokic, and they have to play more small ball now without both Jokic and Valanciunas, which makes them an OVER team moving forward.

The Nuggets went for 242 combined points with the Nets, 240 at the end of regulation with the 76ers and 224 with the Celtics in their last three games without Jokic.  The Celtics play at the slowest tempo in the NBA, so that won't be an issue tonight against the Hawks.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Hawks and Nuggets with a whopping 251 or more combined points in each of the last five meetings.  They combined for 267 in their lone meeting this season.  This total of 232 is way too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER 230

This game between the Thunder and Grizzlies will be played with mostly backups for both teams.  The result should be a low-scoring, ugly defensive battle that stays well UNDER this total of 230 tonight.

The Thunder will be without the NBA's leading scorer in Gilgeous-Alexander (31.9 PPG), plus Holmgren (18.2 PPG), Hartenstein (11.2 PPG) and Wallace (7.5 PPG) tonight.  The Grizzlies will be without leading scorer Morant (19.0 PPG) and Edey (13.6 PPG), plus Coward (13.7 PPG) is questionable.

The Grizzlies are 3-0 UNDER in their last three games overall going for 215 combined points with the Suns and 211 with the Spurs in their last two.  The Thunder are 4-1 UNDER in their last five games overall and would be 5-0 if not for going to OT with the Jazz last time out.  They have gone for 219, 225, 213 and 221 combined points in the four games that didn't go to OT.

The UNDER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the Grizzlies and Thunder.  They have gone for 229 or fewer combined points in seven of their last eight meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Akron/Bowling Green OVER 164.5

Akron is a dead nuts OVER team going 8-5 OVER in all games this season.  The Zips rank 36th in adjusted tempo, 18th in adjusted offense and just 196th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 94.5 points per game this season.

Bowling Green is a dead nuts OVER team as well with an elite offense.  The Falcons rank 157th in adjusted tempo and 125th in adjusted offense.  They are scoring 89.3 points per game. and they have gone for 176 or more combined points with their opponents in each of their last four games coming in.  

That includes a 96-93 loss to Kent State for 189 combined points last time out, a team that profiles very similarly to Akron with an elite offense and terrible defense that plays fast.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Zips and Falcons.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.