15* Big 12 Total DOMINATOR on Kansas State/Iowa State UNDER 132.5

Iowa State is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Cyclones rank 174th in adjusted tempo, 2nd in adjusted defense and just 75th in adjusted offense.  They face another dead nuts UNDER team in Kansas State, which ranks 183rd in adjusted tempo, 19th in adjusted defense and 138th in adjusted offense.  Both teams hang their hats on defense.

That's why it should come as no surprise that the Cyclones and Wildcats just combined for 123 points in their final meeting of the season on March 9th.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and this will be their 2nd meeting in less than a week.  Points will be very hard to come by for both teams once again.

TJ Otzelberger is 11-2 UNDER In March games as the coach of Iowa State.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State -1.5

Firing head coach Chris Holtmann was the best thing that could have happened to Ohio State.  The Buckeyes have gone 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their two losses both coming on the road to Wisconsin and Minnesota.  They upset Purdue at home and Michigan State on the road during this stretch.

The Buckeyes have all of the momentum heading into the Big Ten Tournament and I trust them to get revenge on Iowa after falling 79-77 to the Hawkeyes in Iowa City on February 2nd.  The Hawkeyes don't play defense and they lack good big men inside.  They are just a very hard team to trust.

Ohio State is 8-1 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 45% shooting or higher over the last two seasons.  The Buckeyes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games when revenging a same-season loss.  Bet Ohio State Thursday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Loyola-Chicago -2

Loyola-Chicago got a bye into the quarterfinals and has the rest advantage over St. Bonaventure today.  The Bonnies were life and dead with La Salle in a 75-73 win yesterday.  They only have a 7-man rotation and their starters played 40, 40, 39, 34 and 22 minutes yesterday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Ramblers today.  Bet Loyola-Chicago Thursday.

15* TCU/Houston Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on TCU +10.5

TCU is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  But the Horned Frogs can make their case with an upset win over Houston today.  They will be 'all in' to get this win, and catching 10.5 points is a nice value on a desperate Horned Frogs team today.

Houston was dominant at home this season, but they were vulnerable on the highway.  In fact, each of their last 11 road games were either losses or wins by 8 points or less.  That makes for an 11-0 system backing TCU pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Houston doesn't need this win as they are locked into a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  Bet TCU Thursday.

15* Wake Forest/Pittsburgh ACC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +2

Pitt has a bye into the quarterfinals and has the rest advantage today over Wake Forest, which is a big reason why I'm on the Panthers.  Plus, this is one of the most underrated teams in the country, going 9-2 SU & 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, yet they are on the bubble.  This team is playing with a chip on their shoulder as a result.

Wake Forest is not a deep team and will not handle this back-to-back situation very well as a result.  The Demon Deacons had to play their starters big minutes yesterday in a 72-59 win over Notre Dame.  All five starters played at least 26 minutes, including 36 from Sallis and 35 from Miller.  Their bench provided a total of 11 points in the win as this is one of the worst benches in the country.

Pittsburgh is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 80 points or more in two consecutive games.  Bet Pittsburgh Thursday.

15* Maryland/Wisconsin Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -3

Wisconsin has the rest advantage over Maryland today.  The Badgers got a bye into the quarterfinals while the Terrapins beat Rutgers 65-51 yesterday.  Seven players played at least 21 minutes for the Terrapins yesterday, and I question how much they have left in the tank for the Badgers.

Rutgers pretty much quit late in the season, so the Terrapins are getting too much respect from that win.  Maryland is 1-8 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season.  It's a great 'buy low' spot on the Badgers, who went 3-8 SU & 2-9 ATS in their final 11 games to close out the regular season.  Bet Wisconsin Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on UMass +2.5

UMass has the rest advantage today getting a bye into the quarterfinals while VCU was in a dog fight with Fordham yesterday in a 69-62 win.  That's a big factor as to why I'm backing UMass.  Plus, the minutemen beat the Rams 74-52 in their lone meeting this season, and I trust head coach Frank Martin to have his team ready.

UMass is 9-2 ATS off an ATS loss this season.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet UMass Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on St. Joe's/Richmond UNDER 142

This will be a sleepy 11:30 AM EST start time for this Atlantic 10 Tournament opener between St. Joe's and Richmond.  These early games always tend to be lower scoring because it takes both teams some time to wake up.

Richmond ranks 213th in adjusted tempo and 28th in adjusted defense while just 147th in adjusted offense, so the Spiders are a dead nuts UNDER team.  St. Joe's played the early game yesterday which proved to be a defensive battle in a 64-57 win over George Mason that saw just 121 combined points.

Richmond beat St. Joe's 73-66 on March 6th in their lone meeting this season for 139 combined points.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and this will be their 2nd meeting in just over a week, so they'll know how to stop one another.

St. Joe's is 6-0 UNDER in its last six road games when revenging a same-season loss.  Richmond is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven road games vs. teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* St. Joe's/Richmond Atlantic 10 Early ANNIHILATOR on Richmond -2.5

Richmond has the rest advantage today getting a bye into the quarterfinals while St. Joe's was in a dog fight with George Mason yesterday.  St. Joe's saw all 5 starters play at least 34 minutes and they are lacking depth with only a 7-man rotation.  That's a big factor as to why I'm backing Richmond.

The Spiders beat the Hawks 73-66 in their lone meeting this season.  Richmond has been undervalued all year going 21-9 ATS in all game, including 14-4 ATS as a favorite.  The Spiders are also a perfect 11-0 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season, and 8-0 ATS off an ATS loss this season.  Bet Richmond Thursday.

15* Lakers/Kings ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  They have won three of their last four games beating three of the top teams in the NBA in the Thunder, Bucks and Timberwolves.  Now they have their sights set on revenge after losing each of their first three meetings this season with the Kings, including blowing a double-digit lead in their lone loss in their last four games.

The Lakers have a massive rest advantage here.  They have had the last two days off, while the Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the Milwaukee Bucks last night.  That win ended a 15-game losing streak to the Bucks, so this game has letdown written all over it for the Kings, who won't be that motivated to beat the Lakers again.

Sacramento is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days.  The Kings are 4-13 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season.  Bet the Lakers Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Villanova -22.5

Fading DePaul has been a great move here of late.  The Blue Demons are a mess after firing head coach Tony Stubblefield and just ready for this season to be over.  They are 0-20 SU & 7-13 ATS in Big East play this season while getting outscored by 23.9 points per game.  They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall 10 of those losses by double-digits and eight by 19 points or more.

Villanova is squarely on the bubble and cannot afford to take DePaul lightly.  They haven't take the Blue Demons lightly in their two meetings already this season to say the least.  Villanova beat DePaul 84-48 on the road on December 23rd and 94-69 at home on January 12th.  Another 23-plus point victory in their favor is in store today to cover this number.  This will be our last opportunity to fade DePaul this season, and we'll take full advantage.

DePaul is 0-6 ATS when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Blue Demons are 6-15 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet Villanova Wednesday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Stanford/California UNDER 150.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Stanford and California just met in the regular season finale with an 80-58 win by the Cardinal and just 138 combined points.  They also combined for 144 points in their previous meeting at California.

But the UNDER run between these hated rivals extends back much further.  The UNDER is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.  The Cardinal and Bears have combined for 146 or fewer points in 12 of those 13 meetings, making for a 12-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 150.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -6.5

Michigan is just ready for this season to be over.  The Wolverines have gone 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall with all eight losses by 8 points or more and seven losses by double-digits.  They should be catching more than 6.5 points to Penn State today.

Penn State has improved as the season has gone on under first-year head coach Mike Rhoades.  The Nittany Lions are 6-5 SU & 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are coming off an 85-69 win over Maryland and will make easy work of this lifeless Michigan team tonight.

Penn State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven conference tournament games.  Michigan is 0-13 ATS after allowing 80 points or more this season.  This will be our last chance to fade the Wolverines this season and we'll take advantage.  Bet Penn State Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +4.5

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Miami Heat off three consecutive losses.  They lost two tough road games to Dallas (by 6) and OKC (by 7) before having a letdown at home in an upset loss to the Wizards.  They were clearly looking ahead to this game against the Denver Nuggets.

Miami wants revenge after losing 4-1 to the Nuggets in the NBA Finals last season.  They also lost a 103-97 heartbreaker at Denver just a few games ago on February 29th.  Now they get the Nuggets at home and I think it will make all the difference.

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets, who have won three consecutive games and nine of their last 10 games overall.  They won't be that motivated to beat the Heat again tonight.  This game has letdown written all over it for the Nuggets.

Denver is 4-12 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  Miami is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 home games off an loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

20* Nuggets/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 215

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Miami and Denver met in the NBA Finals last season and this will be their 2nd meeting this season.  These games have been very low-scoring, and this one will be another defensive battle tonight.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Heat and Nuggets dating back to Game 1 of the NBA Finals.  They have combined for 203 or fewer points in five of those six meetings and an average of just 200.8 combined points per game.  That's over 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 215, so there's clearly value with the UNDER.

Both Miami and Denver are dead nuts UNDER teams as it is.  Miami ranks 28th in pace while Denver ranks 27th in pace this season.  The Heat rank 9th in defensive rating while the Nuggets rank 10th.  This game will be played at a snail's pace again tonight.

Miami is 18-6 UNDER in non-conference games this season.  Denver is 22-12 UNDER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Duquesne -6.5

Saint Louis was life and dead yesterday with Rhode Island in a 74-71 win.  The Billikens only have a 7-man rotation and Jimerson played 39 minutes, Hargrove Jr. 36 and Medley 34 yesterday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Duquesne Dukes today.

I'll gladly back Duquesne with the rest advantage today.  The Dukes have been playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  They have gone 11-3 SU in their last 14 games overall including an 81-66 win as 9.5-point home favorites over St. Louis.  This is a short number for them to be laying in the rematch, especially with the rest advantage.

St. Louis is 0-7 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  Bet Duquesne Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Syracuse ML -125

The Syracuse Orange are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They have gone 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming on the road to Clemson on Senior Day.  They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against NC State this season beating the Wolfpack by 12 at home and by 4 on the road.

The Orange have the rest advantage over the Wolfpack today.  They got a bye into this round, while NC State was life and dead with a very bad Louisville team yesterday, winning 94-85.  Not to mention, they are without G DJ Horne (16.8 PPG, 42.9% 3-pointers), who is their best player.  They only have an 8-man rotation and Taylor and Morsell both played 39 minutes yesterday.

NC State is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after grabbing 5 or fewer offensive rebounds last game.  Bet Syracuse on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Georgetown +10.5

The Georgetown Hoyas have been known for making runs in the Big East Tournament even when they had poor regular seasons.  I think they have what it takes to give Providence a run for its money in the opener today.  They only lost by 5 to Xavier and by 8 at St. John's in two of their last three games.

The other game resulted in a 71-58 home loss to Providence.  But Georgetown was coming off that deflating loss to Xavier and didn't show up.  Head coach Ed Cooley called his team out, and they responded by giving St. John's a scare on the road in the finale.  That was a desperate St. John's team trying to make the tournament and playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.

Providence is not playing well at all.  The Friars are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall losing by 22 at Marquette, by 11 at home to Villanova and by 14 at home to UConn.  Providence shot 49.1% in that last meeting with Georgetown while the Hoyas shot 35.1%.  Some positive shooting regression is coming Georgetown's way in this one.

Providence is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  Georgetown is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games when revenging a home loss.  Bet Georgetown Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Xavier/Butler UNDER 150.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Butler played Xavier in the regular season finale in a game that finished 72-66 for just 138 combined points.  This total of 150.5 has been set way too high for the rematch today in this win-or-go-home situation.

Butler has been a dead nuts UNDER team for weeks.  The UNDER is 8-0-1 in Butler's last nine games overall with 150 or fewer combined points in all nine games.  That makes for a 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 150.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Fordham/VCU Atlantic 10 Early ANNIHILATOR on VCU -8.5

Fordham needed OT yesterday to put away Davidson 71-63.  The Rams aren't a deep team going with a 7-man rotation and all seven played at least 21 minutes yesterday, including 45 from Kochera, 41 from Huffman, 34 from Logan and 34 from Durkin.  They won't have much left in the tank today against VCU, which will ramp up the defensive pressure and make life difficult on the Rams.

It's a great 'buy low' spot on VCU after closing out the regular season with three consecutive losses.  But they arguably came to the three best teams in the Atlantic 10 in Richmond (by 3) and Dayton (by 5) on the road, as well as Duquesne at home, which was a sandwich spot.  Now they take a big step down in class here and will be highly motivated to get back on track.

VCU is 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Fordham.  Six of the seven wins have come by 15 points or more, including their 75-60 win at Fordham on February 6th in their lone meeting this season.  Fordham is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games when playing its 2nd game in 3 days.   Fordham is 3-10 ATS off an ATS win this season.  VCU is 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season.  Bet VCU Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards ML -127

The Memphis Grizzlies are an absolute mess right now.  They are playing a G League team due to all of their injuries.  Jaren Jackson Jr. and Vince Williams Jr. have been playing well to keep them competitive at times, but not both of those guys are out.  They have 10 players listed as out and another 3 players questionable heading into tonight with the worst injury report of any team.

The Washington Wizards continue to show up every night and are coming off consecutive wins over the Hornets by 12 at home and an upset win at Miami as 11.5-point dogs.  They have done their best work on the road going 21-12-1 ATS in their 34 road games.  They should make easy work of the depleted, unmotivated Grizzlies tonight.

Washington is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games vs. Southwest Division opponents.  Memphis is 2-10 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Grizzlies are 0-9 ATS in home games against bad defensive teams that allow 48% or higher the last two seasons.  Bet the Wizards on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on New York Knicks -6

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for revenge from a bad 79-73 home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday.  They couldn't throw the ball in the ocean, hitting 32.5% as a team and 9-of-40 (22.5%) from 3-point range.  They won't shoot that poorly again, and there's a good chance OG Anunoby returns from injury tonight as he has been upgraded to questionable.

Philadelphia is 26-8 with Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 5.7 APG) in the lineup and 10-20 without him this season.  The 76ers are without De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG) as well. It's easy to see why the 76ers have been a bet against team since losing Embiid.  They are 7-15 SU in their last 22 games overall and 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games.  

They were upset by Brooklyn as road favorites and upset by Memphis as home favorites while losing by 8 at home to the Pelicans as 8-point dogs in a score that was very misleading as New Orleans led by 30 before calling off the dogs.  That was a rare win over the Knicks on Sunday without Embiid.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - revenging a SU loss as a favorite of 7 or more against an opponent that is off a road win are 76-35 (68.5%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on favorites (New York) - revenging a SU loss as a home favorite of 7 or more against an opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

20* 76ers/Knicks TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 209

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace in the entire NBA.  They get after it defensively ranking 8th in defensive rating.  They are still missing Julius Randle so they have rely even more on defense.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Knicks last six games overall with 209 or fewer combined points in five of those six games.  That includes their 98-74 slug fest against the Magic two games ago and their 79-73 loss to the 76ers last game.

The Philadelphia 76ers are an UNDER team in their current state because they are missing Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG) and De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG).  They are just finding it hard to score being held to 109 or fewer points in nine of their last 11 games, including 99 or fewer five times.  The UNDER is 8-3 in their last 11 games overall.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  These teams just combined for 152 points on Sunday, so we have a lot of margin for error here in the rematch taking this UNDER 209.  New York is 9-1 UNDER after scoring 100 points or less this season.  The Knicks are 11-3 UNDER in home games when revenging a loss this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* WVU/Cincinnati Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 144.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 3rd meeting between WVU and Cincinnati this season, including the 2nd meeting in 4 days.  They combined for 134 points in their first meeting and 148 in their 2nd, but Cincinnati shot an unsustainable 59% in that game and WVU shot 42.1% from 3.

Now in a win-or-go-home situation here in the 3rd meeting Tuesday, I think the defensive intensity will be very high.  The Bearcats rank 197th in adjusted tempo and 19th in adjusted defense, profiling as an UNDER team.  I think we're getting some value on the under after both of these teams trended over late in the season.

Plays on the UNDER on neutral court teams with a total of 140 to 149.5 (Cincinnati) - off a home win where they scored 85 points or more are 106-61 (63.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Early ANNIHILATOR on George Washington/La Salle UNDER 146.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  La Salle just beat George Washington 72-66 for 138 combined points in their second-to-last game of the season.  Both teams actually shot pretty well in that game so there was nothing fluky about it being low scoring.

La Salle is now 5-0 UNDER in its last five games overall with 138 or fewer combined points in four of those five games.  George Washington is 3-1 UNDER in its last four games overall with 138 or fewer combined points in three of those four.  The Colonials have really struggled scoring since losing Garrett Johnson (13.4 PPG, 40.3% 3-pointers) to injury in mid-February.

George Washington is 8-0 UNDER in its last eight road/neutral games after losing 12 or more of its last 15 games.  La Salle is 13-5 UNDER in conference games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -3.5

The Dallas Mavericks traded for PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford and both are making significant contributions.  C Dereck Lively II returns tonight and is their best defender and a key contributor.  So the Mavericks are fully healthy heading into this game against the Chicago Bulls, and a dangerous team when that's the case.

This is a very tough spot for the Bulls.  They are coming off an impressive 4-game road trip in which they won their first three games over the Kings, Jazz and Warriors, but then blew a double-digit lead in a 10-point loss to the Clippers in the finale.  I always like fading teams in that first home game back from an extended road trip.  This is a tired Bulls team playing in their 5th different city in 8 days.

Dallas is 14-3 ATS as a road favorite this season.  The Mavericks have done their best work on the highway against teams like the Bulls that they are supposed to beat.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +4.5

The Golden State Warriors will be without Stephen Curry tonight after suffering an ankle injury in an upset home loss to the Bulls two games ago.  Curry (26.9 PPG, 4.9 APG) is the one player the Warriors cannot afford to lose and he means more to his team than perhaps any other player in the NBA.  The Warriors should not be favored on the road over the Spurs without him.

The Warriors are 81-146 SU without Curry in his career, including 0-4 SU this season losing by 13 at home to the Timberwolves, by 19 at home to the Thunder, by 11 at the Bucks and by 13 at home to the Spurs despite being 11-point favorites last time out.

San Antonio has quietly gone 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall and is still continuing to show up every night.  The Spurs even nearly upset the Kings as 11-point road dogs two games ago despite being without Victor Wembenyama in a 129-131 defeat.  They beat the Warriors by 13 as 11-point dogs without both Wembenyama and Devin Vassell last time out.  Well, they are expected to get both Wembenyama and Vassell back for tonight's rematch.

Golden State is 5-20 ATS in its last 25 road games after losing two of its last three games coming in.  The Warriors are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games against a team that wins 25% or less of their games on the season.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Spurs Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns -6

This is a very tough spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They are short-handed right now playing without Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Max Strus and Dean Wade.  I don't think they'll have anything left in the tank for the Suns tonight.

I like the spot for the Suns coming off a tough home loss to Boston despite playing without Devin Booker.  But Booker makes his much anticipated return from injury tonight, and the Suns have been a dangerous team this season when Booker, Durant and Beal have been on the court at the same time.  They should handle the Cavaliers in this spot.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Phoenix) - after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Suns Monday.

15* 76ers/Knicks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York -6.5

Philadelphia is 26-8 with Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 5.7 APG) in the lineup and 9-20 without him this season.  But it's worse than that right now because the 76ers are without their 2nd-best player in Tyrese Maxey (26.0 PPG, 6.3 APG).  Not to mention, they are without De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG) as well.

It's easy to see why the 76ers have been a bet against team since losing Embiid.  They are 6-15 SU in their last 21 games overall and 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games.  They were upset by Brooklyn as road favorites and upset by Memphis as home favorites while losing by 8 at home to the Pelicans as 8-point dogs in a score that was very misleading as New Orleans led by 30 before calling off the dogs.  They won't be able to hang with the Knicks on the road, either.

The Knicks just got Jalen Brunson back from injury and it made all the difference in a 98-74 home win over the Orlando Magic.  Brunson looked to be back to his former self scoring 26 points on 11-of-19 shooting including 4-of-7 from 3-point range.  This team goes as he goes, and they should make easy work of the short-handed 76ers tonight.

New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 105 points or fewer in two consecutive games. Bet the Knicks Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Knicks UNDER 211.5

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace in the entire NBA.  They get after it defensively ranking 9th in defensive rating.  They are missing key offensive pieced in Julius Randle and OG Anunoby right now so they have rely even more on defense.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Knicks last five games overall with 209 or fewer combined points in four of those five games.  That includes their 98-74 slug fest against the Magic last time out.

The Philadelphia 76ers are an UNDER team in their current state because they are missing their top two scorers in Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG) and Tyrese Maxey (26.0 PPG, 6.3 APG) as well as De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG).  They are just finding it hard to score being held to 109 or fewer points in eight of their last 10 games, including 99 or fewer four times.  The UNDER is 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.

New York is 8-1 UNDER after scoring 100 points or less this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Illinois/Iowa OVER 171.5

Illinois is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Fighting Illini rank 65th in adjusted tempo and 4th in adjusted offense this season.  Brad Underwood has by far his best offensive team in his time at Illinois, but it's also his worst defensive team.  The Fighting Illini look to run every chance they get and play little defense to boot.

Illinois is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games overall with 162 or more combined points in nine of those 10 games.  The OVER is 13-2 in their 15 games overall as well.  The books just haven't been able to set their totals high enough probably because of the perception of the Big Ten, and we're getting another good value on the OVER 171.5 points today.

Now Illinois faces another dead nuts OVER team in Iowa that will run right with them.  The Hawkeyes rank 26th in adjusted tempo and 9th in adjusted offense.  These teams just met on February 24th and a 95-85 shootout was the result for 180 combined points.  Neither team shot the lights out either as Iowa went 4-of-12 (33.3%) from 3 while Illinois went 10-of-27 (37%).  It will be more of the same with a shootout in the rematch here tonight.

Illinois is 11-1 OVER in road games this season.  Iowa is 11-4 OVER in home games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa +2

The Iowa Hawkeyes have battled their way back onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall with home wins over Wisconsin and Penn State, as well as upset road wins over Michigan State and Northwestern.

Now the Hawkeyes want revenge from their lone loss during this stretch which came 95-85 at Illinois.  That was a close game throughout before the Fighting Illini pulled away in the final minutes.  Iowa actually led 66-61 with 11 minutes left.  They know they can play with this team, and now they get them at home where they are 12-3 SU this season.

This is a terrible spot for Illinois.  The Fighting Illini are coming off a 77-71 home loss to Purdue in which they had a shot to win the Big Ten regular season title had they won that game.  But now they are locked into the #2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and have nothing to play for.  They won't be that motivated to beat Iowa again after just beating them two weeks ago.  I expect a very flat effort from the Fighting Illini as a result.

Iowa is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after a game with 24 or more assists.  The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games after scoring 75 points or more in four consecutive games.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Iowa Sunday.

20* Drake/Indiana State MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 151.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last 20 years hitting around 65%.  That includes 7-3 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 8-2 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT.  It would also be 9-1 without that OT game if you got a good number on the Drake/Bradley game yesterday which we had at 140, but closed 138 and landed 139.  The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country.

I love betting UNDERS in winner-take-all games like this MVC Championship Game.  Nerves are rampant, defensive intensity is high and these games just seem to slow down.  I think we're getting extra value on the UNDER after Indiana State shot the lights out yesterday making 57.4% as a team and an unsustainable 15-of-29 (51.7%) from 3 against Northern Iowa.  That was the only MVC Tournament game that went way over in this entire tournament.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and this will be their 3rd meeting this season.  After combining for 167 points in their first meeting in a FT fest, these teams combined for just 142 points in their 2nd meeting.  I expect this 3rd and final meeting to finish in the low 140's as well.

Drake has allowed 75 or fewer points in 10 of its last 13 games overall.  That includes an average of 63.7 points per game in its last three games.  Indiana State has allowed 77 or fewer points in seven consecutive games and 11 of its last 12.  I don't expect either team to top 75 points in this one.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* UNLV/Nevada MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +6.5

The UNLV Rebels are riding the quietest 10-1 run you will ever see.  Most left this team for dead, but the Rebels have played their way back onto the bubble by upsetting the likes of New Mexico on the road as well as Colorado State and San Diego State at home.

Now the Rebels desperately want revenge on their biggest rivals in Nevada, which handed them their only loss during this 10-1 run.  It was a game they let get away as they were in control of the game deep into the 2H, but poor FT shooting and turnovers allowed the Wolf Pack to erase a big deficit and steal a 69-66 win at UNLV.

Nevada is a lock to make the NCAA Tournament and won't be nearly as motivated to beat UNLV again as a result.  The Wolf Pack are also coming off a 76-66 upset road win at Boise State, setting them up for a prime letdown spot.  They haven't been nearly as good at home as they have been on the road this season.  They have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three home games including an upset loss to New Mexico.

UNLV is 8-2 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Rebels are 7-1 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  Nevada is 16-31 ATS in its last 47 home games off three consecutive conference wins.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

15* Arizona/USC ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 159.5

USC has been an OVER team when they've been healthy.  Well, the Trojans are fully healthy right now and having no problem scoring.  They have gone 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall.  The key has been having their top two scorers in Isaiah Collier (16.6 PPG) and Boogie Ellis (17.0 PPG) on the court.  Both are healthy now and thriving.

Both Ellis and Collier were out of the lineup in their 82-67 home loss to Arizona that saw just 149 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Having them back will make all the difference in not only keeping the Trojans competitive in the rematch, but also helping us cash this OVER 159.5 ticket.

Arizona is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 15th in adjusted tempo and 6th in adjusted offense.  They have scored at least 80 points in 11 of their last 12 games with the lone exception being against Washington State, which is an elite defensive team that plays at a snail's pace.  The Wildcats average 90.3 points per game this season and will push 90 in this game to help pave the way to cashing this OVER ticket.

Arizona is 7-1 OVER in road games when playing just its 2nd game in a week this season.  The Wildcats are 8-0 OVER in their last eight road games after playing a road game.  USC is 20-10 OVER in all games this season, including 10-3 OVER as underdogs.  The Trojans are 13-2 OVER in their last 15 games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota/Northwestern UNDER 141.5

Northwestern is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Wildcats rank 343rd in adjusted tempo and 70th in adjusted defense.  They are 5-2 UNDER in their last seven games overall with 138 or fewer combined points in five of those seven games.  They are a banged up team right now missing some key pieces to their offense as well and are coming off a 53-49 slug fest against Michigan State.

The Wildcats will control the tempo playing at home, but it's not like Minnesota likes to run anyway.  The Golden Gophers are 231st in adjusted tempo this season.  They are playing for their NCAA Tournament lives right now and will have a big defensive effort as a result.

Minnesota beat Northwestern 75-66 (OT) in their first meeting this season at home.  That games was tied 61-61 at the end of regulation for just 122 combined points.  So we have nearly 20 points to spare here in the rematch with this 141.5-point total.  Minnesota and Northwestern have combined for 142 or fewer points at the end of regulation in eight consecutive meetings, so this has been a grinder of a series.

Minnesota is 9-2 UNDER in its last 11 games after scoring 25 points or fewer in the first half last game.  Northwestern is 81-52 UNDER in its last 133 home games when revenging a loss.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +9.5

The Golden State Warriors will be without Stephen Curry tonight after suffering an ankle injury in an upset home loss to the Bulls last time out.  Curry (26.9 PPG, 4.9 APG) is the one player the Warriors cannot afford to lose and he means more to his team than perhaps any other player in the NBA.  Asking the Warriors to win this game by double-digits to beat us without Curry is asking too much.

San Antonio has quietly gone 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall and is still continuing to show up every night.  The Spurs even nearly upset the Kings as 11-point road dogs last game despite being without Victor Wembenyama in a 129-131 defeat.  Wembenyama doesn't mean nearly as much to this team as Curry does for the Warriors, and his absence is being factored into this line too much.  

The Warriors are 81-145 SU without Curry in his career, including 0-3 SU this season losing by 13 at home to the Timberwolves, by 19 at home to the Thunder and by 11 at the Bucks.  Bet the Spurs Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Seton Hall -23.5

Seton Hall is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.The Pirates came up big with a 66-56 home win over fellow bubble team Villanova in their last game.  They cannot afford a letdown here against DePaul if they want to make the Big Dance, so they will be fully focused and put away the Blue Demons in blowout fashion.

Fading DePaul has been a great move here of late.  The Blue Demons are a mess after firing head coach Tony Stubblefield and just ready for this season to be over.  They are 0-19 SU & 6-13 ATS in Big East play this season while getting outscored by 23.9 points per game.  They are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall nine of those losses by double-digits and seven by 19 points or more.

That includes their 72-39 home loss to Seton Hall in their first meeting this season on January 30th.  That 33-point loss will be a sign up things to come today, and it's why I'm willing to lay the big number here on the Pirates in the rematch as 23.5-point favorites knowing that they'll be motivated to get margin.

DePaul is 4-14 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points this season.  The Blue Demons are 1-12 ATS vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  Bet Seton Hall Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Providence +10.5

Providence is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  The Friars could really use a signature win here against UConn to punch their ticket.  They will be max motivated to do just that at home on Senior Day tonight.

I think their effort will be good enough to stay within this 10.5-point spread at the very least.  UConn clinched the Big East regular season title and swept Marquette with a 74-67 road win last time out.  I think this is a flat spot for the Huskies now as they will be looking ahead to the Big East tournament and are a lock to get a #1 seed for the NCAA Tournament regardless of how they finish this season.

Providence already showed it could hang with UConn on the road in their first meeting this season, losing 74-65 as 13-point road dogs on January 31st.  They can certainly keep it within single-digits again at home in the rematch here as 10.5-point dogs.

Providence is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a home underdog or PK.  The Friars are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games when playing against a top-level team that wins more than 80% of their games.  Providence is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  The Friars are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Providence Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh -6.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They are playing with a chip on their shoulder right now because of it.  They have gone 10-3 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall with road wins over Duke and Virginia, as well as home wins over Wake Forest and Virginia Tech yet they are still on the bubble.

The Panthers have been rolling at home during this stretch going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home games beating Florida State by 15, VA Tech by 15, Louisville by 27, Notre Dame by 10 and Wake Forest by 5.  Now they are at home again on Senior Day in what will be a great atmosphere.

NC State has gone the other direction, playing their way off the bubble and into the NIT at best.  The Wolfpack have gone 4-9 SU in their last 13 games overall.  They have lost three consecutive games, including a 15-point home loss to Duke last time out.  They know their only chance of making the Big Dance is winning the ACC Tournament now, so they won't be motivated again until it gets here.  I expect a very flat effort from the Wolfpack tonight.

Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 80 points or more in two consecutive games.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Pistons OVER 234

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 9th in pace, 6th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating.  They are without their best defender right now in C Dereck Lively II (7.0 RPG, 1.4 BPG) and the Pistons should have a field day getting easy buckets at the rim without him.

The Mavericks and their opponents have gone for 236 or more combined points in seven of their last game games overall.  The lone exception was against a dead nuts under team in the Miami Heat who are also banged up.  

The Pistons have been playing a lot of good defensive and under teams here of late in the Nets, Heat, Magic (twice), Knicks, Cavs and Bulls in their last seven games.  Their last game against a team with a similar profile to Dallas was the Pacers eight games ago, and they went for 244 combined points.  The Pistons rank 29th in defensive rating this season.

Dallas is 9-1 OVER in road games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game this season.  Detroit is 12-2 OVER vs. teams that make 14 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Bradley/Drake MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 140

MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last 20 years hitting around 65%.  That includes 7-1 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 8-0 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT.  The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Drake and Bradley, who met in the MVC Tournament Championship Game last year.  Drake won that game 77-51 for just 128 combined points.  They also combined for 134 points four meetings ago, and 141 and 140 points in their first two regular season meetings this season.  These teams met in the regular season finale so familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  They combined to shoot 32-of-33 from the FT line yet still only combined for 140 points.  The 3rd and final meeting here will stay UNDER 140.

Bradley has really stepped up its defense down the stretch allowing 59.0 points per game and 35.3% shooting in its last five games.  Drake showed what it is capable of defensively when focused in its last two games holding Bradley to 66 and Evansville to 58 points. Drake is 6-0 UNDER in its last six March games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Kansas/Houston ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kansas +8.5

The Kansas Jayhawks are a real contender with a healthy Kevin McCullar Jr. (19.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 4.3 APG).  He does a little bit of everything for this team.  He has returned from injury in their last two games and shown very little signs of injury, scoring 20 points against Baylor and 19 against Kansas State.

Houston has already clinched the Big 12 title and thus I think this may be a letdown spot for them.  Kansas is used to winning the Big 12, and they can at least get some solace in sweeping the season series after crushing Houston 78-65 at home in their first meeting this season.  Nobody has played Houston better than Kansas did this season.

The Cougars are not only vulnerable after clinching the Big 12, but they are also a very banged up team right now and lacking depth.  They have lost key role players in Joseph Tugler, Ramon Walker Jr. and Terrance Arceneaux to season-ending injuries.  That puts a lot of pressure on their starters to play big minutes and fatigue will be a factor for them moving forward.  This is a big number for the Cougars to be laying against a team that caliber of the Jayhawks.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State -3

The Miami Hurricanes have flat out quit.  They made the Final 4 last season and brought back all but two or three key players from that team and were expected to make another run this season.  But they sit at just 15-15 this season and their only hope of getting back to the big dance is winning the ACC Tournament.  They have just been going through the motions waiting for it to get here.

Indeed, Miami is 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall with all eight losses by 4 points or more.  The Hurricanes are coming off a 67-57 home loss to Boston College which was their 5th loss by double-digits during this 8-game skid.  I don't see them showing up at all for the regular season finale against Florida State, either.

The Seminoles have been solid at home this season and have won their last two home games 90-83 over NC State and 84-76 over Boston College.  They have not quit and would love nothing more than to sweep their rivals in the Hurricanes after beating them 84-75 on the road in their first meeting this season.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Kentucky/Tennessee OVER 166

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 12th in adjusted tempo and 8th in adjusted offense, plus this is one of John Calipari's worst defensive teams since he took over in Lexington.  Kentucky is 22-8 OVER in all games this season, including 4-0 in their last four with 170 or more combined points in all four.

Tennessee ranks 73rd in adjusted tempo and 21st in adjusted offense.  The Volunteers have their best offensive team of the Rick Barnes era and they are playing much faster this season as a result.  That was on display in their 103-92 win at Kentucky on February 3rd in their first meeting this season for 195 combined points.  It should be more of the same in the rematch.

The Wildcats are 18-2 OVER after a combined score of 165 points or more this season.  The books just haven't been able to set their totals high enough this season and they have failed to do so again today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Kentucky/Tennessee CBS No-Brainer on Kentucky +8.5

The Tennessee Vols just won 66-59 at South Carolina to clinch the outright SEC title.  They already beat Kentucky 103-92 on the road in their first meeting this season as well.  I think this is the ultimate flat spot for the Volunteers as a result.

Kentucky wants revenge from that defeat, plus they have a lot to play for with a first-round bye in the SEC Tournament at stake.  The Wildcats have played much better since that defeat back on February 3rd.  They have gone 7-2 SU since with the two losses coming by a combined 5 points.  They upset Auburn 70-59 as 8.5-point road dogs and they have what it takes to take down Tennessee, too.

Kentucky is 7-1 ATS in road games off two consecutive games as a favorite this season.  You rarely get the opportunity to back the Wildcats as this big of underdogs, and we'll take advantage today.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

20* Northern Iowa/Indiana State MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 147.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last 20 years hitting around 65%.  That includes 7-1 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 8-0 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT.  The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country.

Each of the last two meetings between Indiana State and Northern Iowa went UNDER the total in the regular season.  Indiana State won 80-62 on the road for 142 combined points in their final meeting last season, and the Sycamores won 77-66 for 143 combined points in their lone meeting this season.

Northern Iowa has been playing elite defense here down the stretch holding eight of their last 10 opponents to 71 points or fewer.  They held a high-octane Belmont offense to just 62 points yesterday in their 67-62 win that saw 129 combined points.  Indiana State is better defensively than it gets credit for.  The Sycamores have held nine of their last 11 opponents to 74 points or fewer.  They held Missouri State to 59 points yesterday in a 75-59 win that saw just 134 combined points.

Northern Iowa is 6-0 UNDER off three or more consecutive wins this season. The Panthers are 24-10 UNDER in their last 34 conference tournament games.  The Sycamores are 8-2 UNDER in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Creighton/Villanova FOX ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 137.5

Villanova is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Wildcats rank 348th in adjusted tempo and 13th in adjusted defense.  The UNDER is 6-0 in their last six games overall with 134 or fewer combined points in all six games.

Creighton is more of an UNDER team than most realize.  They also play slow ranking just 230th in pace and are better defensively than they get credit for, ranking 24th in adjusted defense.

Villanova beat Creighton 68-66 (OT) in their first meeting this season in a game that was tied 58-58 at the end of regulation for just 116 combined points.  The UNDER is now 4-2 in the last six meetings with 127 or fewer points at the end of regulation four times.  They have gone for 138 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in nine of their last 12 meetings as well.

Creighton is 8-2 UNDER in road games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The Bluejays are 8-1 UNDER in road games vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Villanova is 10-1 UNDER vs. teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Mississippi State -4

I love the spot for the Mississippi State Bulldogs this afternoon.  They have played their way back onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament by losing three consecutive games against an absolutely brutal schedule.  They lost by 2 at home to Kentucky and lost on the road to both Auburn and Texas A&M.

Now the Bulldogs return home on Senior Day and will be highly motivated for revenge from a 68-62 road loss at South Carolina in their first meeting this season.  I think they catch the Gamecocks at the perfect time.

South Carolina just lost to Tennessee 66-59 at home on Wednesday in a game that was for 1st place in the SEC.  The Volunteers won and won the outright SEC title as a result.  I think the Gamecocks are in a massive letdown and hangover spot from that defeat, and we will see one of their worst efforts of the season because of it.

Mississippi State is 14-3 SU in its last 17 home meetings with South Carolina.  The Bulldogs are 6-2 SU at home in SEC play with wins over both Tennessee and Auburn, which are the top two teams in the conference.  Their two losses came to Kentucky and Alabama by a combined 10 points.  

Mississippi State is 80-37 ATS in its last 117 games after losing three of its last four games.  The Bulldogs are 148-113 ATS in their last 261 games revenging a loss.  Mississippi State is 41-21 ATS in its last 62 games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.  This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Bulldogs.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Villanova ML +105

Villanova has played its way onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament with its best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  The Wildcats have gone 6-3 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their three losses all coming on the road to UConn, Seton Hall and Xavier.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home during this stretch with four blowout wins over Providence by 18, Seton Hall by 26, Butler by 10 and Georgetown by 28.

The Wildcats could punch their ticket with a 2nd win over Creighton this season and will be max motivated to do so.  They beat Creighton 68-66 on the road in their first meeting this season.  They are 8-2 SU in their last 10 home meetings with the Bluejays and have really had their number.

Creighton is just 3-3 SU in its last six Big East road games with two narrow wins over Xavier and Seton Hall as well as a blowout win over reeling Butler.  They lost by 14 at UConn, lost by 4 at Providence and lost by 14 at St. John's in their most recent road game.  They are clearly vulnerable away from home.   The Bluejays don't have much to play for either as they are locked into the 2nd or 3rd seed in the Big East Tournament.

Villanova is 6-0 ATS in home games with a total of 130 to 139.5 this season.  The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in home games when playing just their 2nd game in a week this season.  Villanova is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Villanova on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Oklahoma/Texas ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 144.5

Oklahoma is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Sooners rank 223rd in adjusted tempo and 25th in adjusted defense.  The Sooners are without John Hugley IV (8.4 PPG, 54.8% FG's) and could be without Javian McCollum (13.6 PPG), who missed their last game with a shoulder injury and is questionable.

Texas also plays slower than average ranking 209th in adjusted tempo and 47th in adjusted defense.  Leading scorer Dylan Disu (16.1 PPG, 51.4% 3-pointers) was forced from their last game early with a knee injury and is questionable to go Saturday as well.

But the biggest reason for this UNDER play is the head-to-head history between hated rivals Oklahoma and Texas.  The Sooners and Longhorns have combined for 139 or fewer points at the end of regulation five of their last six meetings and 146 in the one that didn't.  This has been an UNDER series.

Oklahoma is 7-1 UNDER in its last eight games vs. a good team that wins 60-80% of its games.  The Sooners are 20-8 UNDER in their last 28 games when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more.  Rodney Terry is 9-1 UNDER after allowing 90 points or more as a head coach.  Terry is 10-1 UNDER after a combined score of 175 points or more as a head coach.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Memphis/FAU CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +7

Memphis (22-8) has played its way back onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament by playing some clutch basketball here down the stretch.  The Tigers are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall beating Charlotte by 24 at home as 6-point favorites, upsetting FAU 78-74 as 1.5-point home dogs, crushing ECU by 24 as 4.5-point road favorites and crushing UAB by 19 as 7-point home favorites.

Now the Tigers get a chance to beat FAU for a 2nd time this season which would almost surely get them in the Big Dance.  I know we will get their best effort, and fading Florida Atlantic has been a very profitable endeavor for myself and premium clients in AAC play this season.

FAU has been grossly overvalued in conference play after making the Final 4 last year and beating Arizona in the non-conference.  The Owls are just 5-12 ATS in conference play this season and have been very fortunate in close games.  In fact, they have seven wins by 10 points or less in conference play despite this conference being way down.

Memphis is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games as an underdog.  The Tigers are 33-16 ATS in their last 49 games as road dogs of 6.5 to 12 points, including 8-1 ATS in this role under current head coach Penny Hardaway.  Bet Memphis Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Arkansas/Alabama OVER 173.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  They have scored 81 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games, including 95 or more in seven of those.

Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well allowing 88 or more points in six of their last eight games.  The OVER is 8-1 in Alabama's last nine games overall with 166 or more combined points in eight of those nine games, including 175 or more in seven of those.

Arkansas likes to run as well ranking 34th in adjusted tempo, so this game is going to be played at a rapid pace.  The Razorbacks have scored at least 82 points in four consecutive games.  They have also allowed 83 or more in three striaght, which is really bad when you consider LSU and Vanderbilt were two of those teams.

Arkansas is 12-1 OVER following a win this season.  The Razorbacks are 10-1 OVER after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Arkansas/Alabama ESPN No-Brainer on Arkansas +15

The Arkansas Razorbacks have been fighting hard for head coach Eric Musselman here down the stretch.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost by 4 as 11-point dogs at Mississippi State, upset Texas A&M 78-71 as 11.5-point road dogs and took Kentucky to the wire in a 9-point loss at 13-point dogs in their last three road games.

Now the Razorbacks are catching too many points today against a reeling, overrated Alabama team that doesn't play defense.  The Crimson Tide are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They needed OT to beat Florida at home and needed to overcome a double-digit 2H deficit to beat Ole Miss.  They lost by 22 at Kentucky, by 7 at home to Tennessee and by 18 at Florida.  They have allowed 81 or more points in all five games and seven of their last eight games overall.

Alabama is 0-7 ATS off two consecutive games where they had five or fewer steals.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* Boise State/San Diego State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 137.5

San Diego State is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Aztecs rank 248th in adjusted tempo and 9th in adjusted defense.  Boise State also likes to play slow ranking 221st in adjusted tempo and 33rd in adjusted defense.  That's why it is no surprise that a defensive battle is usually the result when these two teams get together.

Indeed, the UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings and would be 8-0 in the last eight if not for OT.  Boise State and San Diego State have combined for 134 or fewer points in each of their last eight meetings.  They have averaged just 116.3 combined points at the end of regulation in those eight meetings, so we have about 21 points to spare here with this 137.5-point total.  

San Diego State is 9-0 UNDER In its last nine March games.  The Aztecs are 12-1 UNDER in their last 13 games following three or more consecutive unders.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -10.5

Head coach Brian Wardle always has his Bradley Braves (21-10) playing their best basketball in the MVC Tournament.  The Braves will be ready for another run in 2024, and it starts today against lowly Illinois-Chicago (12-20).

Bradley has a rest advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals while Illinois-Chicago needed 2 OT to beat Southern Illinois 84-82 last night.  It's safe to say the Flames will be running on fumes tonight.  Three starters played at least 46 minutes for the Flames last night and they have just a 7-man rotation with zero depth  They won't have anything left in the tank for Bradley.

Bradley beat Illinois-Chicago 77-59 on the road and 85-73 at home.  So they have already covered this 10.5-point spread in both meetings this season, and that domination should continue in the 3rd and final meeting given their rest advantage.  Bet Bradley Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic -1

Injuries have really hurt the New York Knicks here down the stretch.  The Knicks are 4-9 SU & 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a result with their four wins coming against the Pistons by 2, the Grizzlies, the short-handed 76ers and the short-handed Cavs.  They are coming off a 16-point home loss to the short-handed Hawks.

The Knicks have been without Julius Randle (24.0 PPG, 9.2 RPG) and OG Anunoby (15.6 PPG) during this entire stretch.  Jalen Brunson (27.2 PPG, 6.6 APG) has played in most of these games and he just cannot do it on his own.  But now Brunson is battling injury due to such a heavy workload.  He missed their last two games and is questionable to play tonight.

The Orlando Magic have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA this season.  The Magic are 37-26 SU & 40-21-2 ATS this season.  They are really rolling right now going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by 8 points or more and by an average of 15.8 points per game.  They are fully healthy and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.

Orlando is 19-5 ATS as a favorite this season.  New York is 12-21 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The Magic should be bigger favorites given the circumstances tonight, but the Knicks continue to get respect when they shouldn't be.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -7.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have played their best basketball on the road this season going 16-6 SU & 14-8 ATS in their last 22 road games.  They are fully healthy right now and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They beat Indiana by 27 at home and Toronto by 41 on the road in their last two games coming in.

The Pelicans couldn't be any fresher right now as not only did they have the All-Star Break, but they will now be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days tonight.  I expect them to make easy work of the short-handed Philadelphia 76ers in this one.

Philadelphia is 26-8 with Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 5.7 APG) in the lineup and 9-19 without him this season.  But it's worse than that right now because the 76ers are without their 2nd-best player as well in Tyrese Maxey (26.0 PPG, 6.3 APG).  Not to mention, they are without De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG) as well.

It's easy to see why the 76ers have been a bet against team since losing Embiid.  They are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games overall and 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games.  They just lost by 6 at home to the Grizzlies as 5.5-point favorites in their last game.  It won't get any easier tonight against the Pelicans.

New Orleans is a perfect 7-0 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season.  Philadelphia is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games while consistently being overvalued at home.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Evansville/Drake UNDER 150.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last decade hitting around 65%.  That includes 3-1 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 4-0 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT.  The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country.

Evansville beat Illinois State 59-53 for just 112 combined points yesterday.  This opening total of 150.5 against Drake has been set way too high today.  Evansville is terrible offensively ranking 232nd in adjusted offense while averaging just 61.3 points per game in its last four game.  Drake ranks 85th in adjusted defense and will hold the Purple Aces in check.

Drake beat Evansville 97-48 for 145 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Drake won 78-75 in the 2nd meeting but both teams shot lights out, which is unlikely to happen again.  Drake shot 13-of-27 (48.1%) from 3 while Evansville shot 50% from the field and 8-of-18 (44.4%) from 3.  Yet that game still only saw 153 combined points.  This game likely won't be as close with Drake winning in a blowout, which should mean no FT's at the end in the foul game.

Evansville is a perfect 11-0 UNDER after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  The Purple Aces are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Belmont/Northern Iowa UNDER 153.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last decade hitting around 65%.  That includes 3-1 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 4-0 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT.  The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country.

Northern Iowa ranks 239th in adjusted tempo and likes to slow it down.  The Panthers will have to try to slow it down to a snail's pace to counteract Belmont.  I don't know that it will work as Belmont is pretty efficient offensively, but it gives them their best chance to win.

Belmont has really picked it up defensively here down the stretch which has been the key to their 8-1 run.  They have held six of their last nine opponents to 68 points or fewer and I think they can do the same against Northern Iowa, which struggles offensively.  The Panthers have held 12 of their last 16 opponents to 72 points or fewer.  I'd be surprised if either team got to 80 points in this one, which is what it will take for us to lose this UNDER.

Belmont is 13-1 UNDER after winning four or five of its last six games this season.  Belmont doesn't get to the FT line often averaging just 18 attempts per game.  But they don't foul either giving up 16 attempts per game.  Northern Iowa is also great at playing defensive without fouling allowing 17 attempts per game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* MVC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Belmont +1.5

Belmont is playing better than anyone in the MVC since they got fully healthy.  I bet the Bruins +2100 to win the MVC Tournament and you can still find +1900 out there heading into this game.  You'll likely see me back this team in every game until they lose because they are grossly undervalued.

Belmont is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall with its lone loss coming on the road to Drake, which didn't lose a single home game this season.  Seven of the eight wins came by 15 points or more so these games haven't even been close.  That includes their 86-61 win over Valparaiso in the opener of the MVC Tournament.  They led by 26 at halftime and were able to get their starters rest in the 2H and will still be fresh for this game.

While most MVC teams have struggled shooting at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis over the years including to open this tournament, Belmont has not.  The Bruins shot 52.4% as a team and made 10 3-pointers yesterday.  This is one of the best shooting teams in the country since they got healthy, shooting 47.4% or better in seven of their last eight games, including 50% or better in five of them.

Northern Iowa can't match Belmont in the shooting department and has slipped defensively this season.  Belmont shot 52.6% in a 90-70 win at Northern Iowa in their first meeting this season.  The Bruins shot a solid 47.5% and 40% from 3 in a home loss to the Panthers in the rematch, but they weren't fully healthy for that game.  Ja'Kobi Gillespie (17.5 PPG, 57% FG)  scored 18 points in that first meeting which was a win, and he didn't play in the game that they lost to UNI.  Having him healthy has made all the difference for this team.  Bet Belmont Friday.

15* ASU/USC FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 144

USC has been an OVER team when they've been healthy.  Well, the Trojans are fully healthy right now and having no problem scoring.  They have gone 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall with 147 or more combined points in five of those seven games, including 157 or more in four of those.

Arizona State is 5-2 OVER in its last seven games overall and has allowed 77 or more points in eight of its last 11 games, including 80 or more seven times.  Both teams like to play with pace as ASU ranks 79th in adjusted tempo while USC ranks 123rd.

Arizona State beat USC 82-67 earlier this season for 149 combined points.  Neight team shot well in that game as ASU shot 42.9% overall and 30.8% from 3, while USC shot 46.6% overall but just 4-of-14 (26.7%) from 3.  USC was without its top two scorers in Isaiah Collier (17.0 PPG) and Boogie Ellis (16.6 PPG) in that contest as well.  Both are healthy now and thriving.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 146 or more combined points in three of the four.  USC is 12-2 OVER vs. teams that average 21 or more 3-point attempts per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Cal/Stanford ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 154.5

Analysis will be posted shortly.

20* Celtics/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 221.5

The Denver Nuggets are a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Nuggets are 14-4-1 UNDER in their last 19 games overall.  That push came against the Suns last game with a total of 224 that went to OT and was tied 102-102 at the end of regulation for 204 combined points.

What makes the Nuggets such an UNDER team is that they rank 27th in the NBA in pace and like to really slow it down.  They also rank 9th in defensive rating.  They face a Boston Celtics team that ranks 2nd in defensive rating tonight, so these are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA.

That played out in their first meeting this season as the Nuggets beat the Celtics 102-100 for just 202 combined points.  The Nuggets even shot 51.9% from the field in that game as it was played at a snail's pace.  It will be more of the same in the rematch tonight with the defensive intensity being very high for this potential NBA Finals preview.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Celtics last five games overall.  Denver is 11-2 UNDER in home games vs. good offensive teams that score 116 or more points per game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Bucks/Warriors ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 227.5

Doc Rivers has delivered his promise to play better defense in a big way since taking over as the Milwaukee Bucks' interim head coach.  The Bucks are 14-1-1 UNDER in their last 16 games overall.  They have gone for 223 or fewer combined points with their opponents in 10 consecutive games.

The Bucks rank 6th in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 15 games.  They have played at a much slower pace to try and keep their key players fresher as well.  The Bucks could be without Giannis Antetokounmpo again tonight after he missed the last game with an Achilles injury and looked seriously injured in warmups.  But they have been a dead nuts UNDER team with or without Giannis.

The UNDER is 12-2 in Warriors last 14 games overall.  They have been a dead nuts UNDER team since getting their most important defender in Draymond Green back from injury.  They have gone UNDER the total in seven consecutive games now.

Golden State is 14-2 UNDER after winning three of its last four games this season.  Milwaukee is 8-0 UNDER in non-conference road games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt/Kentucky OVER 160.5

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 14th in adjusted tempo and 8th in adjusted offense, plus this is one of John Calipari's worst defensive teams since he took over in Lexington.  Kentucky is 21-8 OVER in all games this season, including 14-3 OVER in its 17 home games where it is scoring 94.2 points per game on 53.5% shooting while also allowing 79.1 points per game at home.

Kentucky beat Vanderbilt 109-77 for 186 combined points in the first meeting this season on February 6th.  So we have 25.5 points to spare with this 160.5-point total in the rematch.  It should be another shootout, and Vanderbilt scored 77 points despite shooting just 35.5% from the field in that first meeting.  I have to expect they'll shoot a little better in the rematch.

The Wildcats are 17-2 OVER after a combined score of 165 points or more this season.  Kentucky is 8-0 OVER in SEC home games this season.  The books just haven't been able to set their totals high enough this season and they have failed to do so again tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Atlanta Hawks ML -121

This play is more of a fade of the Cleveland Cavaliers than anything.  Cleveland is in a massive letdown spot after coming back from 22 points down in the 4th quarter to beat the Boston Celtics 105-104 last night.  Now the Cavaliers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.

Not to mention, Cleveland is already short-handed without two of its best players in Donovan Mitchell (28.0 PPG) and Evan Mobley (15.6 PPG), plus Max Strus (12.2 PPG) is questionable after sitting out last night.  That's three of their top six scorers.  The Cavaliers will have nothing left in the tank for tonight.

Atlanta has a lot to play for right now trying to fend off the Nets for the final play-in spot in the East.  The Hawks have shown some fight going 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games with blowout wins over Orlando by 17, Utah by 27 and New York by 16.  The Hawks will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight, but that factor is lessened by the fact that they had two days off prior to beating the Knicks 116-100 last night.  They are much healthier and much deeper than the Cavaliers right now as well.

Plays on home favorites (Atlanta) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, a marginal losing team (40-49%) playing a winning team are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Atlanta is favored for good reason tonight.  Bet the Hawks on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Wizards OVER 223.5

The Orlando Magic have gone under the total in six consecutive games.  Because of this, we now have the opportunity to 'buy low' on an OVER in a game involving the Magic.  Now they face a dead nuts OVER team in the Washington Wizards, who rank 1st in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating this season.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Wizards and Magic with 225 or more combined points in all six.  The OVER is 3-0 in three meetings this season with 246, 255 and 259 combined points.  Those three totals were all set at 235.5 points or higher, and now this total is 12 points lower than that at 223.5.  That fact alone shows there's value with the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston College/Miami OVER 151.5

Both Boston College (15-14) and Miami (15-14) have nothing to play for at this point.  Both are playing like it defensively giving up massive point totals here down the stretch.  Don't expect either to get after it defensively tonight, either.

Miami has allowed 75 or more points in six consecutive games and has lost seven in a row overall.  Boston College has allowed 77 or more points in six of its last seven games and the OVER is 6-0 in its last six games overall.  I expect both teams to get 75-plus points tonight.

Boston College beat Miami 85-77 for 162 combined points in their first meeting this season on February 17th.  It should be more of the same in the rematch with yet another shootout.

Miami is 13-4 OVER in its last 17 home games after going under the total in its previous game.  Boston College is 8-1 OVER in its last nine March games.  The Eagles are 7-1 OVER off three or more consecutive overs this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Nevada/Boise State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 143.5

Two dead nuts UNDER teams square off tonight when Boise State hosts Nevada.  Boise State ranks 231st in adjusted tempo and 31st in adjusted defense.  Nevada ranks 243rd in adjusted tempo and 38th in adjusted defense.  Both teams prefer to slow it down and rely on defense.

That has played out in this head-to-head series as well.  Boise State beat Nevada 64-56 for just 120 combined points in their first meeting this season on January 12th with a 140-point total.  The books have no business raising this total to 143.5 tonight.  That's especially the case when you consider Boise State and Nevada have combined for 140 or fewer points in four of their last five meetings.

Nevada may still be without Kenan Blackshear (15.2 PPG, 49.7% FG's), who has missed the last two games and is questionable to play tonight.  Nevada is 12-5 UNDER when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.  Boise State is 16-5 UNDER in its last 21 home games off a home win where they scored 85 points or more.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wake Forest -13.5

I love the spot for Wake Forest tonight.  The Demon Deacons are squarely on the bubble now after losing consecutive road games at Notre Dame and at Virginia Tech following up their upset home win over Duke.  They already beat Georgia Tech 80-51 on the road, and they cannot afford to take the Yellow Jackets lightly now.

Wake Forest is back home now where they are 15-0 SU & 12-3 ATS while outscoring opponents by 19.0 points per game.  Few of these games have even been close, and I like their chances of winning this game by 14 points or more to get us the cover given what's at stake.

Wake Forest is 8-0 ATS in home games vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season and winning by 20.0 points per game in this spot.  Georgia Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. excellent free throw shooting teams that make 77% or better and losing by 26.1 points per game in this spot.  Bet Wake Forest Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh -7.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers (19-10, 10-8 ACC) are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament right now.  This despite going 9-3 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall with upset road wins over Duke, NC State and Virginia.  They are coming off a 25-point win at Boston College as well.

We'll get a fully focused effort from the Panthers tonight knowing they are on the bubble.  They should make easy work ofa. bad Florida State team that is just 3-7 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are coming off an 85-76 road loss to a very bad Georgia Tech team.  They have lost four of their last five ACC road games all by 8 points or more.

Pittsburgh is 14-4 ATS as a favorite this season.  Florida State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 80 points or more in two consecutive games.  The Seminoles are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after two straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers.  Bet Pittsburgh Tuesday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's -17

St. John's has played its way back on the bubble by winning three consecutive games.  The last two were very impressive as the Red Storm upset Creighton 80-66 as 3-point home dogs and crushed fellow bubble team Butler 82-59 on the road.  Now the Red Storm have had the last five days off to rest and get ready for DePaul.

St. John's crushed DePaul 85-57 at home as 22-point favorites in their first meeting on February 6th.  Now they come back as only 17-point favorites in the rematch which is quite the discount.  I have a motivated favorite here trying to make the NCAA Tournament, so the Red Storm will not take their foot off the gas.

Fading DePaul has been a great move here of late.  The Blue Demons are a mess after firing head coach Tony Stubblefield and just ready for this season to be over.  They are 0-18 SU & 6-12 ATS in Big East play this season while getting outscored by 23.7 points per game.  They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall eight of those losses by double-digits and seven by 19 points or more.

DePaul is 1-7 ATS as a home underdog of 10 points or more this season.  St. John's is 8-2 ATS vs. teams that average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  The Blue Demons are 1-11 ATS vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season.  Bet St. John's Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Heat UNDER 217.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Heat are 11-3 UNDER in their last 14 games overall.  They rank 28th in pace, 8th in defensive rating and 21st in offensive rating this season.  They are missing key scorers in Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson and Kevin Love right now as well to make them even more of an UNDER team.

The Detroit Pistons have become a dead nuts UNDER team since the trade deadline and losing their best shooter in Bogdanovic to the Knicks.  The Pistons are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games overall.  They have gone for 200, 210 and 214 combined points in their last three games.  They are struggling to find offense outside Cunningham and Ivey, and they are built for defense right now starting Duren, Thompson and Stewart inside.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Detroit and Miami with 212 or fewer combined points in four of those five meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Florida -7.5

South Florida is one of the most underrated teams in the entire country.  The Bulls have gone 22-5 SU & 18-7-2 ATS this season including 14-2 SU & 12-3-1 ATS at home.  Yet, many feel they are out of the NCAA Tournament if they don't win the conference tournament.  Money keeps pouring in against this team every game, and they just keep getting the money playing with a chip on their shoulder.

The Bulls have gone 20-1 SU & 16-3-2 ATS in their last 21 games overall with 14 consecutive victories.  Now they face a Tulane team that is ready for this season to be over.  The Green Wave are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  

They lost by 12 at Memphis, by 8 at home to SMU, by 14 at East Carolina, by 11 at home to UAB and by 4 at home to North Texas.  They did show some life last game only because they are facing Florida Atlantic, which made the Final 4 last year.  I don't think they will show any life tonight after coming up just short against FAU with a late comeback.  Bet South Florida Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Notre Dame +15.5

Notre Dame is one of the most improved teams in the country in the 2nd half of the season under first-year head coach Micah Shrewsberry.  The Fighting Irish are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with upset wins over Clemson, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech.  Their lone loss came by 3 as 7.5-point dogs at Syracuse.

Now the Fighting Irish are ready to give North Carolina a run for its money.  The Tar Heels are in a big sandwich spot here coming off a 79-70 home win over NC State, plus with another big rivalry game on deck against Duke that will decide the ACC regular season champion.  The Tar Heels lead the Blue Devils by one game so they can afford to lose this game knowing that they can still win that game against Duke to win the title.

North Carolina is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more.  Notre Dame is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a road underdog or PK.  The Fighting Irish are a perfect 9-0 ATS vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game.  Bet Notre Dame Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Alabama/Florida OVER 175.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 13th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  They have scored 81 or more points in nine of their last 10 games, including 95 or more in seven of those ten.

Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well allowing 88 or more points in five of their last seven games.  The OVER is 7-1 in Alabama's last eight games overall with 166 or more combined points in seven of those eight games, including 175 or more in six of those.

Alabama is coming off an under which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  But Alabama shot just 38.3% and Tennessee shot 36.4% yet they still combined for 155 points.  I also think this total is lower because Alabama and Florida played on February 21st and both shot terribly in a game that saw 170 combined points at the end of regulation before going to OT.  Alabama shot 44% and 8-of-32 (25%) from 3 while Florida shot 43.2% and 9-of-30 (30%) from 3.  I have to think both teams will shoot better in the rematch.

Florida has a similar profile to Alabama liking to play fast ranking 33rd in adjusted tempo while also being one of the best offensive teams in the country ranking 15th in adjusted offense.  The OVER is 4-1 in Gators last five games overall.  Alabama is 6-0 OVER in road games off an ATS loss this season.  Florida is 7-0 OVER vs. good shooting teams that make 48% or better this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Purdue/Illinois OVER 163.5

Illinois is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Fighting Illini rank 57th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in adjusted offense this season.  Brad Underwood has by far his best offensive team in his time at Illinois, but it's also his worst defensive team.  The Fighting Illini look to run every chance they get and nobody has been able to stop them.

Illinois is 9-0 OVER in its last nine games overall with 162 or more combined points in all nine games.  The OVER is 13-1 in their 14 games overall as well.  The books just haven't been able to set their totals high enough probably because of the perception of the Big Ten, and we're getting another good value on the OVER 163.5 points today.

Now Illinois faces Purdue, which also doesn't mind playing fast and does it efficiently ranking 2nd in the country in offensive efficiency.  Purdue beat Illinois 83-78 in their first meeting this season for 161 combined points.  This despite Illinois not having its best player in Terrance Shannon Jr. (22.0 PPG).  He makes all the difference for the Fighting Illini and he has scored at least 23 points in six of his last seven games overall.  Illinois has looked to run a lot more with Shannon Jr., who leads the country in fast break points.

These are two of the top seven OVER teams in the entire country as Illinois is 21-8 OVER in all games this season while Purdue is 20-9 OVER in all games.  Illinois is 18-2 OVER vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Illinois -1.5

Purdue already clinched at least a share of the Big Ten title with an 80-74 home win as 10-point favorites over Michigan State on Saturday.  They rained down confetti and celebrated the feat at home.  Now they are in a massive letdown spot here on the road at Illinois, especially knowing they have a home game against Wisconsin still on deck to win the title outright if need be.

Illinois doesn't have the same luxury.  The Fighting Illini can pull within one game of Purdue for first place in the Big Ten with a win here tonight.  They want revenge from an 83-78 road loss at Purdue on January 5th in their first meeting this season.  But they didn't have their best player in Terrance Shannon Jr. (22.0 PPG) for that game due to suspension.  He makes all the difference for this team, and he has scored at least 23 points in six of his last seven games overall.  Illinois hasn't lost at home in Big Ten play with Shannon Jr. in the lineup.

The Boilermakers are kind of just going through the motions right now knowing they have a #1 seed pretty much locked up in the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They went to the wire at home with Minnesota and Michigan State, and also lost outright at Ohio State and went to the wire with Michigan on the road.  This is a big step up in class for the Boilermakers compared to what they have been facing here of late.  The spot really favors the Fighting Illini.  Bet Illinois Tuesday.

20* Alabama/Florida ESPN No-Brainer on Florida +1

The Florida Gators want revenge from a 98-93 (OT) loss at Alabama on February 21st just two weeks ago.  They led that game by double-digits in the final 10 minutes but blew the lead and lost in OT.  But now Florida is back home where they are 13-1 SU this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the SEC.

Alabama is coming off a crushing 81-74 home loss to Tennessee in a game that likely decided the SEC regular season championship.  I don't think the Crimson Tide will be able to get back up off the mat after that defeat.  Plus, Alabama hasn't been able to beat good teams on the road this season.  The Crimson Tide lost by 20 at Tennessee, by 18 at Auburn and by 22 at Kentucky.  Bet Florida Tuesday.

20* Clippers/Bucks NBA TV No-Brainer on UNDER 226.5

Doc Rivers has delivered his promise to play better defense in a big way since taking over as the Milwaukee Bucks' interim head coach.  The Bucks are 13-1-1 UNDER in their last 15 games overall.  They have gone for 223 or fewer combined points with their opponents in nine consecutive games.

The Bucks rank 5th in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 15 games.  They have played at a much slower pace to try and keep their key players fresher as well.  They face a Clippers team that ranks 21st in pace and 12th in defensive rating.  It's a Clippers team without Russell Westbrook right now.

The Clippers are coming off a 89-88 road win at Minnesota last night that saw just 177 combined points.  They will now be a tired team and could elect to rest some guys.  They won't be looking to push the tempo at all playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The Clippers and Bucks have combined for 225 and 211 points in their last two meetings, which both went UNDER the total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Thunder/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City -5.5

I love the spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  They are coming off an upset road loss at San Antonio in one of their worst performances of the season.  They had gone 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their previous ix games with all six wins coming by 13 points or more.  They simply had a letdown and may have been looking ahead to this game against Phoenix.

Now the Thunder are rested and ready to go coming in on two days' rest.  The Suns are a tired team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 118-109 loss to the Rockets on Saturday.  They lost Devin Booker to injury in that defeat and I have to think he is out for this one as well.  Plus, Jusuf Nurkic, Royce O'Neale and Eric Gordon are all questionable.  Kevin Durant is tired and Bradley Beal is not playing full minutes yet.  The Suns are a mess right now.

Oklahoma City is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 130 points or more.  Phoenix is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after three or more consecutive unders.  The Suns are 0-8 ATS in home games vs. teams that are outrebounded by 3-plus boards per game this season.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* Stanford/Colorado FS1 No-Brainer on Colorado -12

The Colorado Buffaloes have come up clutch here down the stretch while squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They have won three consecutive games including blowout home wins over Utah by 24 and California by 10 in their last two games.  They improved to 15-1 SU & 9-6 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.

Now the Buffaloes are playing their final home game this season meaning it is Senior Night.  They will be max motivated, and I expect them to win with plenty of room to spare against a Stanford Cardinal team that looks to have quit on head coach Jerod Haase.

Indeed, the Cardinal are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall losing by 20 at Washington, by 13 at Washington State, by 13 at home to Oregon, by 12 at home to Oregon State and by 22 at Utah.  They haven't even been competitive in these games, and now this will be their toughest game during this stretch tonight at Colorado.

Stanford is 1-8 ATS  in its last nine games off a road loss by 10 points or more.  Bet Colorado Sunday.

20* Knicks/Cavs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 213.5

The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between the Knicks and Cavaliers with 201 or fewer combined points in all seven meetings.  Both teams have some key injuries right now that are hampering them offensively as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska -8.5

Nebraska is a perfect 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in Big Ten home games this season.  Now the Huskers will be highly motivated to keep that perfect conference home record intact on Senior Night Sunday.  I expect them to blow out Rutgers similar to their last three home games where they beat Minnesota by 18, Penn State by 19 and Michigan by 20.  Rutgers is on those three teams' level.

Rutgers is 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in Big Ten road games this season.  They lost by 28 at Purdue and by 11 at Minnesota in their last two conference road games.  The Scarlet Knights don't have much to play for right now as they are headed to the NIT at best if they don't win the Big Ten Tournament.

Nebraska is also extra motivated for revenge from a 87-82 (OT) loss at Rutgers.  This one screams double-digit blowout in the Huskers' favor tonight.  Bet Nebraska Sunday.

15* Warriors/Celtics ABC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 230.5

The UNDER is 11-2 in Warriors last 13 games overall.  They have been a dead nuts UNDER team since getting their most important defender in Draymond Green back from injury.  Now Stephen Curry and Brandon Podziemski are questionable to play today, and Andrew Wiggins is out, so points could be very hard to come by for the Warriors.

The Celtics rank 3rd in defensive rating and may be without Kristaps Porzingis today.  Boston isn't looking to push the pace either ranking 19th in pace.

Golden State is 13-2 UNDER after winning three of its last four games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Drake -4

Drake (24-6) still has an outside shot of winning the MVC trailing Indiana State by one game.  The Bulldogs also believe they are still alive for an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament.  They have a lot to play for right now and are playing like it.

Drake has one of the best home-court advantages in the MVC going a perfect 15-0 SU at home this season and will be highly motivated to protect that perfect home mark on Senior Night today.  They already beat Bradley 74-67 on the road earlier this season and crushed the Braves 77-51 in the MVC Tournament last year.

Bradley doesn't have nearly as much to play for as the Braves are locked in to the No. 3 seed in the MVC Tournament and have no shot at an at-large.  The Braves have lost three of their last five MVC road games and should not be getting this much respect.

Drake is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games after winning eight or more of its last 10 games.  Bradley is 2-17 ATS in its last 19 road games with a total set of 145 to 149.5.  Bet Drake Sunday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -7.5

The Dallas Mavericks are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall and are fully healthy for basically the first time all season.  The Mavericks have three road losses to Indiana, Boston and Cleveland during this stretch, but they are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home with all four wins coming by 8 points or more including a 35-point win over OKC and a 10-point win over Phoenix.

The 76ers are 26-8 with Joel Embiid and 8-17 without him.  They have gone 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games overall and have been grossly overvalued without him.  Not to mention, they are without another key scorer in De'Anthony Melton right now, while Kelly Oubre Jr. is questionable.  I just can't see them being able to keep pace with the Mavericks today.  Bet the Mavericks Sunday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State +14.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the UNLV Rebels.  They are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and getting very fortunate in close games recently.  They beat Colorado State by 6 at home and followed it up with a 75-69 (OT) win at Wyoming last time out having no business covering as 5.5-point favorites.

Now the Rebels are in a sandwich spot here with their next two games against San Diego State and Nevada likely to determine their NCAA Tournament hopes to close out the regular season.  I don't think they come with their best effort here, and we saw what happened to them when that was the case against Air Force at home as 11-point favorites in a game they lost by 32 points.

San Jose State showed some life in a 72-64 loss at 21.5-point dogs at San Diego State last time out.  The Aztecs continue to show up for head coach Tim Miles.  They lost 77-65 at home to UNLV in their first meeting this season on January 27th.  But UNLV shot 68.2% as a team including 46.7% from 3-point range.  I cannot expect the Rebels to shoot that well again in the rematch.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (San Jose State) - revenging a home loss by 10 points or more, off two straight conference losses are 175-109 (61.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  UNLV was a 3.5-point road favorite in that first meeting with the Spartans and is now a 14.5-point home favorite in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment for flipping home courts.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on TCU +7

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the BYU Cougars.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, coming back from double-digits down in the 2H to upset Kansas 76-68 on the road.  Nobody beats Kansas at Phog Allen Fieldhouse, and it was a huge accomplishment.  But now comes the natural letdown following that victory.

BYU has been shaky at home of late with each of its last three victories coming by 7 points or less, including a 2-point win as 12.5-point favorites over UCF and a 6-point win as 11-point favorites over Kansas State.  The Cougars are once again getting too much respect here as 7-point favorites over a much better TCU team.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Horned Frogs off a 62-54 home loss to Baylor on Monday.  They are rested and ready to go getting four days off in between games.  TCU has actually played its best basketball on the road this season, going 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five Big 12 road games with upset wins at Baylor and Kansas State, as well as a 1-point loss at Texas Tech.

I like the matchup for TCU too because they are an elite offensive team in transition while BYU's transition defense is suspect.  I think they can get a lot of easy points out in transition to stay within this inflated number and possibly pull off the upset.  TCU is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off an upset loss as a favorite.  Bet TCU Saturday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Los Angeles PK

The Los Angeles Lakers know the playoffs are approaching and are playing with a sense of urgency.  They are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games overall with one of those losses coming to the Nuggets.  It was their 2nd loss to the Nuggets this season, and they were swept by them in the Western Conference Finals last year in four games that all went down to the wire.

It's safe to say the Lakers will be highly motivated for revenge tonight.  I like them to get their revenge considering they are about as healthy as they have been all season, while the Nuggets have some key injury concerns.  Jamal Murray was forced from their last game with an ankle injury and is questionable to play tonight.  Fellow starter Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is questionable as well.  That is two key scorers they could be without, but I like the Lakers to get it done either way.

Denver is 3-11 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Lakers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 Saturday games.  Los Angeles is 20-9 SU at home this season.  Denver is 17-14 SU & 12-18-1 ATS on the road.  Bet the Lakers Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Missouri +1.5

Missouri is 0-15 SU in SEC play this season.  But the Tigers continue to fight going 3-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  One of those games was a 79-76 road loss to Ole Miss on February 17th.  Now the Tigers have a great shot to get that elusive first conference win as they host the Rebels this time around.

Ole Miss looks like it has quit.  The Rebels are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with five of those losses coming by double-digits, including each of the last three.  This run has eliminated them from NCAA Tournament contention when they were safely in the field just a month ago.  They won't be motivated at all to beat Missouri again tonight.

Ole Miss is 2-15 ATS in its last 17 games after losing three of its last four games.  Missouri is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better.  The Tigers nearly upset Tennessee in a 5-point loss in their last home game, and they will pull off the upset tonight.  Bet Missouri Saturday.

25* CBB TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Tennessee/Alabama OVER 169

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  They have scored 81 or more points in nine consecutive games, including 95 or more in seven of those nine.  They play even faster and are even more efficient at home where they are averaging 95.8 points per game.

Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well allowing 88 or more points in five of their last six games.  The OVER is 7-0 in Alabama's last seven games overall with 166 or more combined points in all seven games, including 175 or more in six of those.

Rick Barnes has the best offensive team he has had at Tennessee.  The Vols rank 16th in adjusted offense and 65th in adjusted tempo.  They have scored 86 or more points in six of their last eight games overall.  They put up 91 on Alabama in their first meeting this season.  But Alabama only scored 71 thanks to 4-of-21 (19%) shooting from 3-point range.  They will shoot much better at home, where they make 41.6% from 3 on the season.  Both teams should get 85-plus in this one.

Alabama is 8-0 OVER after scoring 80 points or more in four consecutive games this season.  The Crimson Tide are 11-1 OVER when playing against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games this season.  Tennessee is 15-7 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 Total DOMINATOR on Houston/Oklahoma UNDER 130

Houston is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Cougars rank 347th in adjusted tempo and 1st in adjusted defense.  They are also known for going on long scoring droughts on offense.  Points will be very hard to come by for both teams today.

Speaking of offensive scoring droughts, Oklahoma only managed 45 points against Iowa State last time out and has scored 66 or fewer in five of its last seven while going 5-1 UNDER in its last six.  The Sooners also play slow ranking 233rd in adjusted tempo and 21st in adjusted defense.

Oklahoma is 6-0 UNDER in its last six home games off two straight games with 12 or fewer assists.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Notre Dame +6.5

Notre Dame is one of the most improved teams in the ACC from the beginning of the season up until now.  Micah Shrewsberry was a great hire and it was going to take some time.  But the Fighting Irish are really enjoying playing the role of spoiler here down the stretch.

Indeed, the Fighting Irish have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 as 7.5-point dogs at Syracuse.  They are 3-0 at home during this stretch and coming off a 70-65 upset win over Wake Forest as 6.5-point dogs.  Wake Forest is in the same class as Clemson, and the Fighting Irish should not be catching 6.5 points again at home today to the Tigers.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Clemson after going 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Tigers have played four of their last five games at home.  Now they hit the road where things won't come as easy for them.

Notre Dame is 11-4 ATS vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Brad Brownell is 11-21 ATS in road games after winning six or seven of his last eight games as the coach of Clemson.  Shrewsberry is 11-1 ATS in March games as a head coach.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on K-State/Cincinnati UNDER 140.5

Both Kansas State and Cincinnati are dead nuts UNDER teams who like to slow down the pace and play elite defense.  Cincinnati ranks 194th in adjusted tempo and 24th in adjusted defense.  Kansas State ranks 212th in adjusted tempo and 19th in adjusted defense.  The Wildcats are the 3rd-worst offensive team in the Big 12 while the Bearcats are the 5th-worst.

The UNDER is 7-3 in Cincinnati's last 10 games overall.  The Wildcats are 13-4 UNDER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on VCU/Richmond UNDER 136

Two dead nuts UNDER teams square off today with a lot at stake in the Atlantic 10 and points will be at a premium as a result.  VCU beat Richmond 63-52 for just 115 combined points in their first meeting this season.  The Rams and Spiders have now combined for 136 or fewer points in seven of their last eight meetings with 139 being the lone exception, so there's clearly value on this UNDER 136.

Richmond ranks 225th in adjusted tempo, 141st in adjusted offense and 26th in adjusted defense.  VCU plays even slower ranking 297th in adjusted tempo, 122nd in adjusted offense and 45th in adjusted defense.  So clearly both teams hang their hat on defense.

VCU is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on USC/Washington OVER 153.5

Washington is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Huskies rank 27th in adjusted tempo and 34th in adjusted offense this season.  The OVER is 8-3 in Washington's last 11 games overall with 162 or more combined points in nine of those 11 games.

USC has been an OVER team when they've been fully healthy with Collier (16.3 PPG, 4.2 APG) and Ellis (16.5 PPG) on the court at the same time, which is the case right now.  They rank 114th in adjusted tempo and like to push the pace as well.  The OVER is 4-2 in their last six games overall.

USC beat Washington 80-74 for 154 combined points in their first meeting this season on February 4th.  Amazingly, they were missing both Collier and Bronny James in this game and it still got to 154 points despite USC shooting just 4-of-22 (18%) from 3-point range.  

I have to expect they will shoot better in the rematch, and I know Washington will shoot better than the 43.6% they shot in that first meeting.  The Huskies are shooting 51.4% at home this season including 40.2% from 3-point range.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State/Minnesota OVER 150.5

The OVER is 5-1 in Minnesota's last six games overall with 151 or more combined points in five of those six games.  The Gophers are 42nd in adjusted offense this season but not a very good defensive team as they have allowed 70 or more points in six consecutive games.

Penn State is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 50th in adjusted tempo.  The OVER is 6-2 in their last eight games overall with 152 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  This total of 150.5 is too low for a game involving Penn State and Minnesota right now with the way they are playing.  These are two of the four worst defensive teams in the Big Ten this season.

Minnesota beat Penn State 83-74 on January 27th in their first meeting this season in a game that saw 157 combined points.  This was a shootout despite the fact that both teams shot poorly from 3-point range, combining for 9-of-33 (27.3%) in that first meeting.  I have to think both will shoot it better from distance in the rematch.

Minnesota is 6-0 OVER when the total is 150 to 159.5 this season.  Penn State is 15-4 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Marquette/Creighton FOX ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 154.5

Creighton has this false perception as an over team which consistently has oddsmakers setting their totals too high.  But the Bluejays play slow ranking 235th in adjusted tempo and are an elite defensive team ranking 23rd in adjusted defense.  They will control the tempo playing at home today against Marquette.

The Golden Eagles are a good offensive team, but they are even better defensively this season which is why they are a contender.  They rank 15th in adjusted defense.  Tyler Kolek (15.0 PPG, 40% 3-pointers) was forced from the last game with an oblique injury and is very questionable to play today.  They would be without one of their best scorers but also one of their worst defenders if he cannot go today.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Marquette and Creighton with 144 or fewer combined points in all four.  They have combined for 144 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings as well.  Marquette beat Creighton 72-67 for just 139 combined points in their first meeting this season.

Marquette is 9-1 UNDER after going over the total in its previous game this season.  The Golden Eagles are 10-0 UNDER in their last 10 road games after scoring 85 points or more.  Creighton is 8-0 UNDER when the total is 150 to 159.5 this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.