|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-10-23||Chattanooga +4 v. Louisville||81-71||Win||100||8 h 23 m||Show|
15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Chattanooga +4
Louisville was the worst Power 5 team in all of college basketball last season. They lost nine consecutive games to begin last season and went 4-28 overall. They are likely to be the worst Power 5 team in all of college basketball again in 2023-24.
Louisville lost 71-68 to Kentucky Wesleyan in an exhibition game on October 30th. The Cardinals were life and death in a 94-93 home win over MD-Baltimore Counting as 7.5-point favorites in their official opener. And now they are going to get upset by Chattanooga, which is coming off an 89-44 win over Covenant in their opener. I expect the Monarchs to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.
Louisville is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite or PK. The Cardinals are 0-8 ATS in their last eight November games. Bet Chattanooga Friday.
|11-09-23||Hawks v. Magic OVER 231.5||120-119||Win||100||10 h 14 m||Show|
15* Hawks/Magic NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on OVER 231.5
The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 3rd in pace, 4th in offensive efficiency and 17th in defensive efficiency. They have gone for 237 or more combined points in five of their last six games overall.
The Orlando Magic were a good defensive team with Wendell Carter Jr. healthy. But he has missed the last couple games and is out for three weeks now. They are going to have to go more small ball without their starting center, and it's going to hurt them defensively.
The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between Atlanta and Orlando with 251, 259 and 233 combined points. They have combined for at least 233 points in four of their last five meetings as well. This total has been set too low tonight folks. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-09-23||Bucks v. Pacers OVER 241||124-126||Win||100||8 h 4 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bucks/Pacers OVER 241
Both the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks are dead nut OVER teams. The Pacers are 7-1 OVER in their eight games this season while the Bucks are 5-2 OVER in their seven games. Both teams play fast, are great on offense and terrible on defense.
The Pacers rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, 1st on offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency. The Bucks rank 6th in pace, 11th in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency.
That makes it no surprise that the OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Pacers and Bucks with 247 or more combined points in all five meetings, and none of the five went to OT. They have averaged 263.4 combined points per game in those five meetings, which is 22.4 points more than this 241-point total tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-08-23||Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 221||94-128||Loss||-113||10 h 28 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Rockets UNDER 221
The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team this season. They rank dead last (30th) in pace and 13th in defensive efficiency. They just held the Kings to 89 and 97 points in their last two games coming in.
The Lakers are also more of an UNDER team, especially dating back to last season. They rank 23rd in pace this season and 24th in offensive efficiency. Instant offense bench player Gabe Vincent is out and Anthony Davis is questionable tonight. Key defender Rui Hachimura is expected to return from a concussion tonight.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (Houston) - off a home win, a bad team from last season that won 25% to 40% of their games are 29-6 (82.9%) since 1996. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|11-08-23||Cavs v. Thunder +2.5||Top||120-128||Win||100||10 h 27 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder gave the Golden State Warriors all they wanted in a 139-141 loss without their best player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He returned to lead them to a 126-117 home win over the surging Atlanta Hawks last time out.
Now the Thunder are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days with their best player back. They have been the single-most undervalued team in the NBA over the last three years and are off to an impressive 5-2 ATS start this season.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS this season and remain overvalued here as road favorites. This is a potential letdown spot for the Cavaliers after beating the Warriors 115-104 at home last time out. They are getting healthier too and will be a bet on team soon, just not tonight.
Oklahoma City is 27-8 ATS in its last 35 games vs. poor offensive teams scoring 108 points per game or fewer. The Thunder have won each of their last two meetings with the Cavaliers 112-100 at home and 108-105 on the road, which came earlier this season as 2.5-point dogs. Now they are 2.5-point home dogs in the rematch in a game I expect them to win outright. Bet the Thunder Wednesday.
|11-08-23||Jazz v. Pacers OVER 241||Top||118-134||Win||100||9 h 2 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Pacers OVER 241
Both the Indiana Pacers and Utah Jazz are dead nuts OVER teams and matched up tonight in what should be one of the highest scoring games of the season. The Pacers are 6-1 OVER in their seven games this season while the Jazz are 6-2 OVER in their eight games.
The Pacers rank 2nd in the NBA in pace and 1st in offensive efficiency. The Jazz rank 9th in the NBA in pace and 15th in offensive efficiency. The Jazz rank 28th in defensive efficiency while the Pacers rank 26th.
The Pacers and Jazz have combined for at least 238 points in each of their last three meetings, and they are even more OVER teams this season. Indiana is 15-2 OVER in its last 17 games vs. good rebounding teams outrebounding their opponents by 3-plus boards per game. Utah is 54-34 OVER in its last 88 games overall. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|11-08-23||Florida Atlantic -6 v. Loyola-Chicago||75-62||Win||100||9 h 53 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida Atlantic -6
The Florida Atlantic Owls went 35-4 last season and made the Final Four. Amazingly, all five starters return from that team in Johnell Davis (13.8 PPG), Alijah Martin (13.4 PPG), Vladislav Golden (10.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG), Nick Boyd (8.9 PPG) and Bryan Greenlee (7.3 PPG). It's safe to say this team is going to have a lot of chemistry from the jump.
Loyola-Chicago went 10-21 last season and 4-14 in Atlantic 10 play. No question they will be improved this season, but they are getting too much respect here for a team that just isn't as dominant since losing Porter Moser to Oklahoma. Drew Valentine has not been able to fill the massive shoes he left behind.
Florida Atlantic is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games. Loyola-Chicago is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 games overall. Bet Florida Atlantic Wednesday.
|11-07-23||North Dakota v. Iowa -19.5||68-110||Win||100||11 h 35 m||Show|
15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa -19.5
The Iowa Hawkeyes dominate in non-conference play every year, especially at home. The Hawkeyes are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 non-conference home games. They are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games overall. Fran McCaffery is 100-62 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of IOwa, including 55-29 ATS as a home favorite of 10 points or more.
Paul Sather is 11-26 ATS in non-conference games as the coach of North Dakota. Sather is 19-40 ATS in road games as their head coach. North Dakota went 13-20 last season and won't be much better in 2023.
Iowa is undervalued due to losing Kris Murray to the NBA draft. They bring back seniors Tony Perkins and Patrick McCaffery, and junior Payton Sandfort to form a veteran core. The freshman class is a good one with Pryce Sandfort, Brock Harding, Owen Freeman and Ladji Dembele.
Freeman will make an immediate impact with his size and skill, and he was teammates with Harding as they won a 4A State Championship together at Moline. Harding was Mr. Basketball in Illinois in 2023. Pryce Sandfort is Payton's younger brother and was Iowa's Mr. Basketball last season. Dembele was a 4-start recruit from Africa and has been crushing it in the weight room, getting up to 260 pounds. Bet Iowa Tuesday.
|11-06-23||USC -2.5 v. Kansas State||Top||82-69||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
20* USC/Kansas State CBB Season Opener on USC -2.5
USC returns leading scorer Boogie Ellis, who averaged 17.7 points per game last season and is the USC Preseason Player of the Year. They added ESPN's No. 1-ranked recruit in the class of 2023 in Isaiah Collier, who was named the co-MVP of the McDonald's All-American game after scoring 25 points.
Junior guard Kobe Johnson and 6-foot-11 senior Joshua Morgan are both great defensively and can score. 7-foot-1 Vincent Iwuchukwu returns from a healthy scorer and senior DJ Rodman transfers in from Washington State. They will be just fine as they await the debut of Bronny James, who had a health scare with his heart.
Kansas State is overvalued after making a run to the Elite 8 last year. Gone to the NBA are Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, who combined to average 35 of K-State's 76.2 points per game last year. The leading return scorer is Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 boards last season. But Tomlin is suspended to start the season, leaving the Wildcats with not much experience at all in what will be a rebuilding year.
This game will be played on a neutral court, but USC will have the crowd advantage with the short trip to Paradise, NV at T-Mobile Arena. Andy Enfield is 9-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3 points or less or PK as the coach of USC. Bet USC Monday.
|11-06-23||Pelicans v. Nuggets UNDER 221.5||116-134||Loss||-112||11 h 19 m||Show|
15* Pelicans/Nuggets NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 221.5
A couple key injuries to both teams has me backing the UNDER between the New Orleans Pelicans and Denver Nuggets tonight. The Pelicans are going to be without CJ McCollum (21.7 PPG, 5.7 APG) who has been playing well and started each of the first six games for the Pelicans. Their offense isn't going to run near as smoothly without him.
The key to the Nuggets success over the last several season has been Nikola Jokic paired with Jamaal Murray. They just haven't been nearly as good when Murray has been sidelined, especially offensively. Well, they will be without Murray (16.3 PPG, 7.4 APG) tonight with a quad injury.
The Pelicans and Nuggets have combined for 195 and 197 points in two of their last three meetings. They have combined for 221 or fewer points at the end of regulation in nine of their last 13 meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|11-06-23||Kings v. Rockets UNDER 219||97-122||Push||0||10 h 29 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Rockets UNDER 219
Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Rockets and Kings. The Rockets won the first meeting 107-89 for just 196 combined points with a total of 220.5. Now the total is 219 in the rematch, and they haven't adjusted it down low enough.
The Kings are really struggling offensively since losing their best player in PG De'Aaron Fox to injury. They managed just 101 points on 40.9% shooting against the Warriors and 89 points on 38.1% shooting against the Rockets. They are really lost without him and forced to play a different game, slowing it down and relying more on defense.
The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team. They rank 28th in pace this season and 22nd in offensive efficiency. They are scoring just 107.6 points per game on 45.9% shooting this season.
Houston is 13-4 UNDER in its last 17 games following an upset win as an underdog. The Rockets are 14-4 UNDER in their last 18 games as a home dog of 6 points or less. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|11-06-23||Mavs v. Magic -115||Top||117-102||Loss||-115||19 h 10 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic ML -115
The Dallas Mavericks are overvalued right now due to a 5-1 start this season against a very soft schedule. Their five wins have come against the Spurs, Nets, Grizzlies, Bulls and Hornets with four of them coming by single-digits. Their lone step up in class game they lost by 11 at Denver.
This is also a very tough spot for the Mavericks playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and in their 3rd different city in four days. Luka Doncic played 36 minutes and Kyrie Irving 34 in an unimpressive 124-118 win over Charlottte as 11.5-point favorites last night. The Hornets were on the 2nd of a back-to-back and nearly pulled the upset.
Now they must travel to Orlando overnight and play a Magic team that I believe is the most underrated in the NBA this season. The Magic are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their six games this season with their two losses both coming on the road to the Clippers and the Lakers (by 3). The loss to the Clippers was the 2nd of a back-to-back. They avenged that loss to the Lakers by beating them by 19 at home in the rematch last time out.
The Magic rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating while the Mavericks rank 22nd. Poor defense is going to hurt the Magic all season, while the Magic will be a team you can rely on because they play defense consistently. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-1 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Magic on the Money Line Monday.
|11-05-23||Grizzlies v. Blazers UNDER 218.5||112-100||Win||100||21 h 2 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER 218.5
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. The Grizzlies and Blazers will be playing for a 2nd time in 3 days Sunday in Portland. The first game on Friday went to OT but was tied 102-102 at the end of regulation for just 204 combined points. There's clearly value on the UNDER 218.5 in the rematch, and I think we cash this with ease barring OT.
The Blazers are going to be without their two young, talented guards in Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons again tonight. They were already struggling offensively with these two, and it's only going to get worse without them.
The Memphis Grizzlies are 0-6 this season and struggling offensively without JA Morant and four other key players right now. They rank dead last (30th) in offensive efficiency this season. The Blazers are 28th in offensive efficiency, so these are the two of the three worst offensive teams in the NBA in the early going.
Portland also ranks 25th in pace and will slow it down playing at home, especially without both Henderson and Simons. Familiarity will also force these teams to play at a slower pace because the defenses know what to expect now, which makes it tougher sledding for the offenses to try and get the ball in the positions they want to.
The Blazers are 26-14 UNDER in their last 40 games as home underdogs. The UNDER is 6-3 in the their last nine meetings with the Grizzlies and would be 7-2 if not for OT. Memphis is 14-5 UNDER in its last 19 road games with a line of +3 to -3. The UNDER is 11-3 in Grizzlies last 14 road games following two or more consecutive losses. Memphis is 17-4 UNDER in its last 21 games following a loss by 6 points or less. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|11-05-23||Warriors v. Cavs -120||104-115||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
15* Warriors/Cavs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland ML -120
The Golden State Warriors are coming off two straight buzzer-beater wins over the Kings (by 1) and Thunder (by 2). But the Kings were without their best player in De'Aaron Fox and the Thunder were without their best player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. I think this is a letdown spot for the Warriors off those two wins, and now they face a healthy Cleveland Cavaliers team on the road tonight.
The Cavaliers finally got Jarrett Allen and Darius Garland back from injury. Now we're going to see what this team is capable of after a shaky 2-4 start that is allowing us to 'buy low' on them tonight. I look for their best effort here with the Warriors coming to town Sunday night. And we'll 'sell high' on the Warriors following five consecutive victories.
Golden State is 17-34 ATS in its last 51 road games. Bet the Cavaliers Sunday.
|11-04-23||Jazz +8.5 v. Wolves||95-123||Loss||-110||10 h 4 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +8.5
The Utah Jazz are coming off a tough 2-point home loss to the Orlando Magic. That followed up a 133-109 home win over Memphis the previous night as it was the 2nd of a back-to-back for them. They also played the defending champion Nuggets tough in a 102-110 road loss as 8.5-point road dogs in their previous game. This team is trending in the right direction.
Speaking of the defending champion Nuggets, the Timberwolves just beat them 110-89 at home to avenge their playoff loss to the Nuggets last season. They will be flat as a pancake off such a big win. I don't expect them to play with the kind of intensity tonight that it's going to take to put away the Jazz by 9-plus points.
Home-court advantage meant nothing in this series last season. The road team went 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS with the Jazz winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs and outright as 8-point road dogs. Utah is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games after losing two of its last three games. The Jazz are 35-15 ATS in their last 50 games as underdogs. Bet the Jazz Saturday.
|11-04-23||Lakers v. Magic +4||Top||101-120||Win||100||9 h 19 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +4
The Orlando Magic will be out for revenge from a 103-106 road loss to the Lakers are 3-point underdogs on October 30th just a few days ago. Now they are 4-point home underdogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment.
I know the Magic will be without Wendell Carter Jr., but they are a deep team and can handle the loss. The Lakers are without Gabe Vincent and Rui Hachimura and could be without Taurean Prince tonight. They aren't a very deep team and can't afford these losses.
While the Magic will be highly motivated for revenge, the Lakers won't be that motivated at all to beat the Magic for the 2nd time in a week. That's especially the case considering it's also a massive letdown spot for the Lakers coming off a 130-125 (OT) win over the Clippers that ended an 11-game losing streak in the series. The Lakers will be flat as a pancake tonight. Bet the Magic Saturday.
|11-03-23||Wizards +9.5 v. Heat||114-121||Win||100||15 h 53 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +9.5
The Miami Heat needed the play-in round just to make the playoffs as a No. 8 seed last year. They struggled in the regular season and were one of the biggest money burners in the NBA. But they turned it on in the playoffs to make it all the way to the NBA Finals. Postseason Miami is much better than regular season Miami.
That is playing out in the early going again this season. The Heat whiffed on Damian Lillard while also losing two key role players in Gabe Vincent and Max Strus in the offseason. The Heat are 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS through five games with their lone win coming by a single point at home against the lowly Detroit Pistons as 9.5-point favorites. They lost by 8 at Boston, by 16 at Minnesota and by 8 at Milwaukee. They were also upset as 6.5-point home favorites by the Nets.
I know the Wizards are rebuilding and not very good, but Miami cannot be expected to win by double-digits against anyone right now, which is what it's going to take to beat us. The Wizards have played a tough schedule with their three losses to Indiana, Boston and Atlanta, and they covered in that loss to the Hawks. They also beat Memphis at home. They can hang with the Heat tonight.
Each of the last four meetings between Washington and Miami were decided by 8 points or less. Six of the last seven meetings were decided by 8 points or less as well. Miami is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Bet the Wizards Friday.
|11-03-23||Cavs v. Pacers OVER 225||Top||116-121||Win||100||14 h 7 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cavs/Pacers OVER 225
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace this season only behind the Washington Wizards. They rank 7th in offensive efficiency and dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency. They just lost 155-104 to the Celtics for 259 combined points, the second time in four games they have gone for 259-plus.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have more shooters than they did last season with the additions of Max Strus and Georges Niang. They also take a hit defensively with these additions. But they are shooting more 3-pointers and are more of an OVER team than last season because of it.
Indiana beat Cleveland 125-113 for 238 combined points earlier this season in a game that the Cavaliers rested Donovan Mitchell. The Cavs and Pacers have combined for at least 225 points in five of their last six meetings, so this total is definitely a little short to say the least. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-02-23||Magic +1 v. Jazz||115-113||Win||100||10 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +1
This is a good spot to back the Orlando Magic. They are coming off consecutive losses to the Lakers and Clippers on the road, which was a tough spot playing them on back-to-back days. Those are also two of the best teams in the NBA. Now the Magic take a big step down in class here against the Utah Jazz. They are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 6 days, and they are fully healthy.
The spot couldn't be much worse for the Jazz. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. They beat Memphis last night, but everyone is beating Memphis as the Grizzlies are still in search of their first victory. The Jazz won't have a whole lot left in the tank for the Magic tonight.
The Magic are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 non-conference games. The Jazz are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games as home favorite of 6 points or fewer. Orlando is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games following two consecutive road games. Bet the Magic Thursday.
|11-01-23||Clippers +5.5 v. Lakers||Top||125-130||Win||100||11 h 45 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Lakers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles Clippers +5.5
I took a bad number here as it moved to +7 shortly after I released it on the news that both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are questionable to play tonight due to rest. I still think the Clippers can be competitive with the Lakers if one or both sit.
The Clippers are 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Lakers. It's rare you get the opportunity to back them as underdogs to the Lakers, and the only reason we are tonight is due to the rest situation and the Clippers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 118-102 win over the Magic last night. But that was a blowout and the starters rested late in the 4th quarter and will still be fresh if they play tonight, plus there's no travel involved getting to stay at home here.
This is a fade of the Lakers more than anything. The Lakers are 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS this season with their two wins coming 100-95 at home over the Suns, who were playing without both Booker and Beal, and 106-103 at home over the Magic who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. They haven't blown out anyone and aren't going to blow out the Clippers tonight. Bet the Clippers Wednesday.
|11-01-23||Cavs v. Knicks UNDER 211.5||95-89||Win||100||8 h 13 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Cavaliers/Knicks UNDER 211.5
Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. Cleveland and New York will be facing off for a 2nd consecutive day. This is also a rematch from the playoffs last year, so familiarity is at an all-time high here between these teams.
Low-scoring games have been the norm when these teams get together. The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with 201 or fewer combined points in all six meetings. Given that fact, this total of 211.5 is too high tonight.
These teams combined for 200 points last night and it should be more of the same tonight. The Cavaliers are dealing with key injuries to scorers in Darius Garland and Caris LeVert, plus Donovan Mitchell isn't 100% as he has been battling a hamstring injury in the early going. The Knicks are fully healthy and a very good defensive team when that's the case. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|11-01-23||Bucks -4.5 v. Raptors||111-130||Loss||-115||8 h 43 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -4.5
It was going to take some time for Giannis, Lillard and the Bucks to gel. Now that they have three games under their belts, I like the prospects of this team moving forward. The Giants/Lillard pick and roll is pretty much unstoppable.
The Toronto Raptors are clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA this season. They lost Fred VanVleet in the offseason and their offense ranks dead last in the NBA in efficiency. They are scoring just 99.5 points per game on 42.5% shooting this season, which is terrible in today's NBA.
The Raptors are 1-3 SU this season and lost by 7 to the 76ers and by 8 to the Blazers in their last two home games coming in. That's a really bad loss to Portland because they are also one of the worst teams in the NBA. This will be their toughest test yet.
Milwaukee is 37-17 ATS in its last 54 games as a road favorite. Bet the Bucks Wednesday.
|10-31-23||Spurs +7.5 v. Suns||Top||115-114||Win||100||12 h 32 m||Show|
20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +7.5
The San Antonio Spurs took both the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets to the wire in their first two games this season. But they were blasted by 40 points on the road to the Los Angeles Clippers last time out. Now it's time to 'buy low' on the Spurs catching 7.5 points against the Phoenix Suns.
Conversely, it's time to 'sell high' on the Suns after opening 3-0 ATS through their first three games. It's going to catch up with them not having Devin Booker and Bradley Beal because this team doesn't have much talent outside the Big 3 in those two and Durant. They shouldn't be favored by 7.5 points here over the Spurs without Booker and Beal tonight.
Phoenix is 32-54 ATS in its last 86 home games following a win by 20 points or more. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (San Antonio) - after scoring 95 points or less against an opponent that scored 125 points or more are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Spurs Tuesday.
|10-30-23||Magic +110 v. Lakers||Top||103-106||Loss||-100||13 h 25 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Orlando Magic ML +110
The Los Angeles Lakers are in a terrible spot tonight. They are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after going to OT and losing 127-132 at Sacramento last night. Four starters played at least 39 minutes for the Lakers. LeBron James is supposed to be on a minutes restriction, so don't be surprised if the Lakers sit him tonight.
The Lakers won't have much left in the tank for the Magic, who are one of my favorite teams to back in the early going this season because they have a lot of chemistry with pretty much everyone back from a team that was a ATS machine in the 2nd half of the season last year. The Magic are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.
The Magic have been impressive to start this season, going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS while beating Houston 116-86 as 4.5-point home favorites and Portland 102-97 as 3.5-point road favorites. The Lakers are an overvalued commodity in the early going at 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS. Orlando is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 non-conference games. Bet the Magic on the Money Line Monday.
|10-30-23||Warriors v. Pelicans -3.5||130-102||Loss||-110||11 h 39 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -3.5
The New Orleans Pelicans have been dominant when Zion Williams, CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram have been healthy at the same time. They had the best record in the West last season before Zion went down. They are off to a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season, winning 111-104 at Memphis and 96-87 at home over the Knicks.
While the Pelicans are rested and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, the Golden State Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days. They won't have much left in the tank for the Pelicans tonight, and don't be surprised to see them rest a starter or two.
The home team went 4-0 SU in four meetings between the Warriors and Pelicans last season with the home team winning by 9 points or more in all four. Golden State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a road dog of 6 points or less and was one of the worst road teams in the NBA last season. Bet the Pelicans Monday.
|10-30-23||Heat v. Bucks -5||114-122||Win||100||11 h 34 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -5
The Milwaukee Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight, but not all back-to-backs are created equal. They were blasted 127-110 at home by the Hawks last night, so they will be motivated to bounce back with a victory. There's no travel involved as they are home again tonight, and the blowout nature of that loss meant the Bucks didn't play their starters much in the 4th quarter. They should still be fresh and pissed off to bounce back.
Adding to their motivation is the fact that they were knocked out of the playoffs in the 1st round by the Miami Heat last year. They want revenge, and they could have easily been overlooking the Hawks yesterday and looking ahead to this revenge game.
The Heat are one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA this season because of their historic run to the NBA Finals as an 8th seed. They are much worse in the regular season than they are in the playoffs, needing the play-in round just to get into the playoffs last year. They struck out on Damian Lillard in the offseason, and now he's with the Bucks. The Heat just lack talent overall especially after losing Gabe Vincent and Max Strus.
Miami is 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS this season with their lone win coming 103-102 at home as 9.5-point favorites against Detroit. They then lost by 8 as 8-point dogs at Boston and by 16 as 8.5-point dogs at Minnesota. They are without two key role players in Caleb Martin and Josh Richardson, leaving too much on Jimmy Butler's shoulders. They are relying on aging veterans Kyle Lowry and Kevin Love. Their only good three healthy players are Butler, Adebayo and Herro, who is making his way back from injury. This is a team I want to fade early in the season.
Milwaukee is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Plays on favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Milwaukee) - off an upset loss as a favorite, in the first 6 games of the season, a playoff team from last season that lost 4 or more of their final 5 games are 54-22 (71.1%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Bucks Monday.
|10-30-23||Bulls v. Pacers -2.5||112-105||Loss||-115||10 h 50 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -2.5
The Indiana Pacers are one of the most talented young teams in the NBA this season. They brought back all their key pieces from last season including Haliburton, Mathurin and Turner. They added Denver's key 6th man in Bruce Brown and Obi Toppin from the Knicks.
The Pacers are off an running with a 143-120 home win over the Wizards as 5-point favorites and a 125-113 road win at Cleveland as 3-point favorites. There's value on the Pacers are only 2.5-point home favorites to the Chicago Bulls tonight. The Pacers rank 1st in offensive efficiency and 3rd in pace through two games.
The Bulls are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season with their lone win coming by a single point in OT at home against the Raptors where they needed a late comeback just to force OT. The Bulls lost 104-124 as 2.5-point home favorites to OKC and 102-118 as 2.5-point road favorites at Detroit. This is a bad Chicago team relying on a bunch of veterans that are pair their primes. There's not much to like about this team, and Billy Donovan may be the first coach fired.
Indiana went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its final three meetings with Chicago last season. The Bulls are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games following a road loss. Indiana is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days. Bet the Pacers Monday.
|10-29-23||Lakers v. Kings -2.5||127-132||Win||100||10 h 25 m||Show|
15* Lakers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -2.5
Getting the Sacramento Kings as a short home favorite over the Los Angeles Lakers is a discount. The Lakers were blasted by the Nuggets 119-107 on the road in their opener. They needed a big 4th quarter comeback to beat the Suns 100-95 at home despite the Suns being without both Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. The Lakers aren't hitting on all cylinders in the early going, and we'll fade them here today with LeBron James on a minutes restriction early.
The Sacramento Kings brought back 10 players that won the Pacific Division and took the Warriors to 7 games in the playoffs last year. They brought back all five starters. They are healthy to start the season and blasted Utah 130-114 on the road in their opener. Now we get the chance to 'buy low' on the Kings after losing 114-122 at home to the Warriors last time out. They simply hat an off shooting night at 43.6% while the Warriors were on fire at 55.2%. The Lakers don't shoot it like the Warriors do.
The Kings went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Lakers last season with their lone loss coming by 2 points, and all three wins coming by 5 points or more. The Kings are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games following a home loss. Bet the Kings Sunday.
|10-29-23||Nuggets v. Thunder +4.5||128-95||Loss||-115||6 h 2 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5
I like backing teams early in the season with a lot of chemistry. The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best young nucleus in the entire NBA. They made the play-in round last year and are in line for bigger things this year.
The Thunder returned four starters and get a healthy Chet Holmgren at center this season. They have key holdovers coming off the bench, plus add rookie Cason Wallace to the mix. This is basically the same team as last year except with the additions of Holmgren and Wallace.
They're off to a good start with a dominant 124-104 win at Chicago as 2.5-point road dogs in the opener and a 108-105 win at Cleveland as 2.5-point road dogs. Now the Thunder get their home opener and have some of the best fans in the NBA. You know they are going to turn out to support this team with the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets coming to town Sunday.
I think the Nuggets are being overvalued due to winning the title and are going to be fighting a championship hangover early in the season. They were able to escape with a win over the Lakers in the opener with a big 4th quarter, and also escaped with a 108-104 win at Memphis as 5.5-point road favorites. Memphis is way down early in the season without JA Morant while missing a few other guys to key injuries. This will be Denver's toughest test of the young season by far.
The Thunder are 31-12 ATS in their last 43 games after allowing 105 points or less. The Thunder are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Nuggets. Bet the Thunder Sunday.
|10-28-23||Bulls v. Pistons +2.5||102-118||Win||100||7 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons +2.5
The Detroit Pistons are grossly undervalued to open the season. They only had Cade Cunningham for the first 12 games last season. Cunningham is back and paired with Jaden Ivey in the backcourt, and this team has a lot of chemistry as they bring back mostly all the same guys and have a ton of depth.
That has shown in their first two games this season as they nearly upset Miami in a 102-103 loss as 9.5-point road dogs. Then they upset Charlotte 111-99 as 4.5-point dogs last night. Their depth will help them a lot in these back-to-back situations, and they won't have any problem coming up with the energy tonight in their home opener in front of some excited Detroit fans ready to see this team.
The spot is much worse for the Bulls on the 2nd of a back-to-back. They needed OT to beat Toronto 104-103 as 2.5-point home favorites last night. DeRozan played 41 minutes, Vucevic 40 minutes, White 40 minutes and LaVine 38 minutes last night. Now LaVine has a back injury and is questionable. The Bulls don't have near the depth that the Pistons do.
Chicago has been overvalued as well losing by 20 at home to the Thunder as 2.5-point favorites and then barely beating a rebuilding Toronto team as short home favorites. They should not be favored on the road here against the upstart Pistons. Bet the Pistons Saturday.
|10-27-23||Magic -2.5 v. Blazers||102-97||Win||100||22 h 1 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -2.5
I like backing teams early in the season that have a lot of chemistry. That's especially the case when they are facing a team with no chemistry and a lot of new faces. That's what we have here with the Orlando Magic over the Portland Trail Blazers.
The Magic were one of the most profitable teams to back in the 2nd half of the season last year because they were healthy and formed chemistry with their young nucleus. They returned all 5 starters from that team plus key bench players in Cole Anthony, Gary Harris and Mo Wagner. They also have a healthy Jonathan Isaac to start the season, plus added veteran Joe Ingles.
The Magic blasted the Rockets 116-86 in the opener at home. Now they take on a Blazers team that lost 111-123 on the road at the Clippers, and that was an even bigger blowout than the score showed as the Clippers called off the dogs up 26 points going into the 4th.
The Blazers are adjusting to life without Damian Lillard. They are relying on newcomers Scoot Henderson, DeAndre Ayton, Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams III to try and pick up the pieces. It's going to take some time for these guys to gel with holdovers Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons and Matisse Thybulle. Bet the Magic Friday.
|10-27-23||Warriors v. Kings -3||Top||122-114||Loss||-110||22 h 1 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Kings ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -3
I like backing teams early in the season that have a lot of chemistry. The Kings returned 10 players from a team that won the Pacific Division last season and took the Warriors to 7 games in the playoffs. They returned all five starters. Now they want revenge from getting bounced in the playoffs by the Warriors, and they don't have to wait long to get it.
They host a Warriors team that is coming off a 108-104 home loss to the Phoenix Suns. The Warriors aren't at full strength in the early going, missing Draymond Green right now with an ankle injury. He is missed on both ends of the court, especially defensively. Things come easier for Stephen Curry when he's out there setting screens for him, and without him the Warriors just don't run as smoothly, and too much is on Curry's shoulders.
Golden State is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games as a road dog of 6 points or less. Bet the Kings Friday.
|10-27-23||Thunder v. Cavs OVER 227||108-105||Loss||-110||11 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Cavaliers OVER 227
The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team. They have a very fast-paced, efficient offense and a ton of chemistry with one of the best young nucleus' in the entire NBA. They made the play-in round last year and returned four starters plus a healthy Chet Holmgren at center. They are going to be tough to tame, and they beat the Bulls 124-104 in the opener.
The Cavaliers are going to be more of an OVER team this year because they added shooters and will attempt more 3's with a change in philosophy. They also are without C Jarrett Allen in the early going, who is their defensive stopper. They take a big hit defensively without him.
The Cavs beat the Nets 114-113 on the road in their opener. They went 17-of-43 (39.5%) from 3-point range. They added two great shooters in Max Strus from the Heat and Georges Niang from the 76ers. These two combined to go 7-of-16 from 3-point range in that contest. Both aren't very good defenders, so that is going to be an issue for them defensively that they will have to deal with. They allowed the Nets to shoot 50% from the field and now take a big step up in class here against the Thunder. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|10-27-23||Thunder +3.5 v. Cavs||108-105||Win||100||11 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5
I like backing teams early in the season with a lot of chemistry. The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best young nucleus in the entire NBA. They made the play-in round last year and are in line for bigger things this year.
The Thunder returned four starters and get a healthy Chet Holmgren at center this season. They have key holdovers coming off the bench, plus add rookie Cason Wallace to the mix. This is basically the same team as last year except with the additions of Holmgren and Wallace. They're off to a good start with a dominant 124-104 win at Chicago in the opener.
Now they take on a Cleveland Cavaliers team with injury problems in the early going. The Cavaliers are without C Jarrett Allen, which really hurts them defensively. They could also be without PG Darius Garland, who is nursing a hamstring injury. They should not be 3.5-point favorites over the Thunder without these two. They escaped with a 114-113 win at Brooklyn in the opener, but won't be as fortunate tonight as they take a big step up in class against OKC. Bet the Thunder Friday.
|10-26-23||Suns v. Lakers -5.5||Top||95-100||Loss||-110||12 h 22 m||Show|
20* Suns/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5
The Phoenix Suns are going to be without both Devin Booker and Bradley Beal tonight. They can't afford to lose these two, especially Booker, with their lack of depth and talent. They're relying on Kevin Durant and a bunch of replacement-level players tonight.
Booker went 13-of-21 for 32 points and 8 assists to lead the Suns to a 108-104 upset victory at Golden State on opening night. The rest of the Suns went 29-of-74 (39.2%) from the field in that game, so he is going to be desperately missed.
The Lakers should fire back here after giving the Denver Nuggets a run for their money on the road only to fall short in the 4th quarter. They are back home here where they have been dominant dating back to the end of last season. The Lakers are 12-3 SU & 9-6 ATS in their last 15 home games.
I love the additions of Vincent, Prince, Reddish and Wood to go along with all five returning starters for the Lakers, though Jared Vanderbilt remains out in the early going. Their great depth plus the lack of depth for the Suns right now will be the key to them winning this one handily.
The home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the Lakers and Suns. Bet the Lakers Thursday.
|10-25-23||Pelicans v. Grizzlies UNDER 227.5||111-104||Win||100||19 h 16 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Pelicans/Grizzlies UNDER 227.5
JA Morant has to serve a 25-game suspension to start the season. The Memphis Grizzlies are going to have to rely on defense in the early going to be competitive. That's why they traded for Marcus Smart, one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA who can mask some of the defensive deficiencies of Morant when he returns. But they gave up great backup Tyus Jones and two first-round picks to get the former Defensive Player of the Year.
The Grizzlies have been a Top 5 defense each of the last two seasons. They were No. 3 in defensive rating last season despite the injuries and suspensions. They hang their hat on defense. Starters Ziaire Williams, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Xavier Tillman Sr. are all plus defenders. Desmond Bane is their only real scorer, but most his points come off the ball spotting up. Scoring is going to be tough for this team in the early going.
The Pelicans have a great starting 5 of McCollum, Ingram, Williamson, Valanciunas and Jones. But they will be without key bench players Jose Alvarado, Trey Murphy III and Naji Marshall to start the season. That means the bench will consist of Cody Zeller, Larry Nance Jr. and Dyson Daniels to start the season. The Pelicans are going to struggle to score for long stretches when their starters are out.
New Orleans is 41-25 UNDER in its last 66 games as a road underdog, including 27-11 UNDER in its last 38 games as a road dog of 6 points or less. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|10-25-23||Pistons +9 v. Heat||102-103||Win||100||19 h 46 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9
A shin injury ended Cade Cunningham's season after 12 games last year and pretty much ended their season. He comes back healthy this season, and he and Jaden Ivey form one of the most underrated backcourt duos in the NBA. I think the Pistons come into the season undervalued as a result. They have great depth with Alec Burks, Joe Harris, Marvin Bagley III and James Wiseman coming off the bench.
The Miami Heat were terrible in the regular season last year and barely made the playoffs, needing the play-in round to get through. They would go on a crazy run to the NBA Finals behind Jimmy Butler's heroics. But regular season Jimmy is much different than playoff Jimmy. I think there will be a hangover effect early in the season for the Heat after coming up just short, losing to the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals.
It was a tough offseason for the Heat, who struck out on Damian Lillard and watched key role players Gabe Vincent and Max Strus go elsewhere. They will get Tyler Herro back from a broken wrist, but depth is going to be an issue, especially with Josh Richardson out to start the season. They are going to be relying on Kevin Love, Thomas Bryant , Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin and Nikoa Jovic. This is one of the worst benches in the NBA, plus starting PG Kyle Lowry isn't getting any younger and declining rapidly.
Miami is 22-39 ATS in its last 61 games as a favorite. The Heat are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites of 6.5 to 12 points. Bet the Pistons Wednesday.
|10-25-23||Wizards v. Pacers OVER 234.5||120-143||Win||100||18 h 16 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pacers OVER 234.5
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team under head coach Rick Carlisle, who is a great offensive mind but chooses offense over defense everywhere he has gone. The Pacers are loaded from an offensive standpoint with Tyrese Haliburton teaming with Bennedict Mathurin in the backcourt. They added Denver 6th man Bruce Brown who will start right away. They also added Obi Toppin from the Knicks to pair with Myles Turner in the frontcourt. One of the best shooters in the NBA in Buddy Hield comes off the bench.
The Washington Wizards are all offense and no defense. They added PG Tyus Jones from the Grizzlies and SG Jordan Poole from the Wizards, who are both terrible defenders. They still have Kyle Kuzma, one of the worst defenders in the league but a good scorer. SF Bilal Coulibaly will start right away and be paired with Daniel Gafford in the frontcourt. They have shooters who can stretch the floor coming off the bench in Mike Muscala, Danilo Gallinari, Deni Avdija and Corey Kispert. This is going to be a fun team to watch offensively, but probably the worst defensive team in the entire NBA.
The Wizards and Pacers went for 240, 232 and 244 combined points in their final three meetings last season. It should be more of the same here in the opener as we see one of the highest scoring games of the night. Carlisle is 50-32 OVER in home games as the coach of Indiana. The OVER is 34-18 in Pacers last 52 home games with a total of 230 or higher. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|10-25-23||Hawks v. Hornets OVER 234.5||Top||110-116||Loss||-115||18 h 16 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Hornets OVER 234.5
The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team with Trae Young and Dejounte Murray in the backcourt. These two should gel much better than they did last year when Quin Snyder took over midseason. Now Snyder has an entire offseason to get things right after a middling 41-41 season a year ago.
The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team when LaMelo Ball is on the court. He averaged 23.3 points, 8.4 assists and 6.4 rebounds last season but played in just 36 games. Terry Rozier, PJ Washington and Gordon Hayward can all fill it up as well, plus they used the 2nd pick in the draft on scorer Brandon Miller out of Alabama. Head coach Steve Clifford said they spent a lot more time on offense than defense the past few weeks.
In four meetings last season, the Hornets and Hawks combined for 282, 240, 235 and 231 points. They have combined for at least 235 points in four of their last five meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|10-24-23||Lakers +6 v. Nuggets||Top||107-119||Loss||-115||10 h 34 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Nuggets 2023 NBA Season Opener on Los Angeles +6
The Los Angeles Lakers were swept by the Denver Nuggets in the playoffs last year. But all four games went down to the wire with three decided by 6 points or less, including both meetings in Denver. The Lakers will be out for revenge on the Nuggets, and I like their chances of staying within this inflated number.
There's usually a championship hangover early in the season for teams that win the NBA Finals. They just don't come back as motivated to start the next season, and it's very tough to repeat. I think the Nuggets will be going through the motions early in the season.
"If anybody is still talking about the Lakers in the NBA Finals, that's on them." said Denver head coach Michael Malone in June. "The've gone fishing. We're still playing.". The comment angered LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
"It was just a lot of talking," Davis said on media day earlier this month. "We get it, y'all won, but me and Bron had some conversations. We can't wait to play them."
"I go play every game the way I'm going to pgo play the first game against them," Lakers guard Austin Reaves said. "But I think it adds a little bit of motivation to go play really well."
The Nuggets lost key 6th man Bruce Brown and Jeff Green in the offseason. The Lakers added Gabe Vincent, Cam Reddish and Taurean Prince to a very experienced roster. I like the moves the Lakers made to get better, and I think the Nuggets are down a notch from last year after losing Brown especially. Bet the Lakers Tuesday.
|06-12-23||Heat +9 v. Nuggets||89-94||Win||100||8 h 19 m||Show|
15* Heat/Nuggets Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Miami +9
The Miami Heat have had their backs against the wall all playoffs and have thrived in this situation. They won't go down without a fight in Game 5 tonight. The Denver Nuggets have never won an NBA Title, so the pressure is all on them now to try and close out this series. I think the Heat hang around in Game 5 and possibly pull off the upset similar to when they did in Game 2 in Denver.
The Nuggets are not a very good defensive team, but the Heat just haven't shot the ball that well in this series with the exception of Game 2 when they shot 48.7% and won outright. They shot just 40.6% in Game 1, 37% in Game 3 and 44.9% in Game 4. I have to think Miami is in line for a better shooting Game 5. The Nuggets have shot 49.4% or better in every game in this series and have some regression in store.
Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after losing four or five of its last six games coming in. The Nuggets are 6-19 ATS in their last 25 games following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more. Bet the Heat in Game 5 Monday.
|06-09-23||Nuggets v. Heat +3.5||Top||108-95||Loss||-110||35 h 48 m||Show|
25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Heat +3.5
The Miami Heat have only lost two consecutive games once in the entire playoffs. That was when they nearly blew a 3-0 lead to the Celtics, only to really show their resiliency by taking Game 7 in Boston. They will come through once again with their backs against the wall in Game 4 tonight.
Everything went wrong for the Heat in Game 3 as they shot just 37% as a team while the Nuggets shot 51.2% and got huge games from both Jokic and Murray. The shots will fall at a much more efficient rate in Game 4, similar to Game 2 when the Heat pulled the upset on the road in Denver.
The Heat are 34-18 SU at home this season while the Nuggets at 24-25 SU on the road. Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a SU loss. The Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss. Miami is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on one days' rest. I trust Spoelstra to make the right adjustments as he has all playoffs. Bet the Heat in Game 4 Friday.
|06-07-23||Nuggets v. Heat +2.5||Top||109-94||Loss||-109||22 h 6 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Heat Game 3 No-Brainer on Miami +2.5
The resilient Miami Heat struck again in Game 2. They came back from double-digits down in the first half and 8 points down entering the 4th quarter to upset the Denver Nuggets 111-108. They gained home-court advantage with that victory, and now I expect them to protect it at least for Game 3 tonight.
The Heat made a great adjustment by making Nikola Jokic into a scorer. And when Jokic scores 40-plus points in the playoffs, the Nuggets are 0-3. So there's something to it. Making Jokic a scorer instead of a passer keeps everyone else uninvolved and out of sync.
Jamaal Murray took just 15 shots and nobody else even had double-digit shot attempts while Jokic had 28 and scored 41. I trust Miami's role players more, who came up clutch in Game 2 with Vincent, Strus and Robinson all having big contributions. With Jimmy Butler's father struggling with his health, that gives this team even more of a reason to rally around him right now.
The Heat are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall. Miami is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games. Bet the Heat in Game 3 Wednesday.
|06-04-23||Heat +9.5 v. Nuggets||Top||111-108||Win||100||69 h 2 m||Show|
20* Heat/Nuggets Game 2 No-Brainer on Miami +9.5
The Miami Heat shot 40.6% as a team and attempted only two free throws in Game 1. Yet they still only lost by 11 points and had a chance to cover the 9-point spread late. It's safe to say they have a ton of room for improvement.
Jimmy Butler was passive in Game 1 and getting his guys wide open looks all game that they would normally make. Max Strus and Caleb Martin were particularly bad combining to shoot 1-of-17 for the game. Butler will be more aggressive in getting to the rim in Game 2, and the shots will start falling.
The Heat have been a resilient team all season and I expect them to bounce back with a big effort in Game 2. Miami is 27-15 ATS in its last 42 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Heat are 30-17 ATS in their last 47 games when revenging a road loss. Miami is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games overall. Bet the Heat in Game 2 Sunday.
|06-01-23||Heat +9 v. Nuggets||Top||93-104||Loss||-110||9 h 28 m||Show|
20* Heat/Nuggets Game 1 No-Brainer on Miami +9
Rust will be a factor for the Denver Nuggets in Game 1 tonight. They have been off since May 22nd and have been getting patted on the back after sweeping the Lakers. I expect them to be flat and out of sync in Game 1 despite it being the NBA Finals. That's going to make it very difficult for them to win by double-digits, which is what it's going to take for them to beat us here.
The Miami Heat have beaten the Bucks, Knicks and Celtics to get here yet they continue to get disrespected. I love that Jimmy Butler didn't even acknowledge winning the Eastern Conference Finals and MVP trophies, telling his teammates there are bigger fish to fry. His leadership is a big reason the Heat have been able to get this far, and it's a key reason they will give the Nuggets more of a fight than most are anticipating, including in Game 1.
I also like the fact that the Heat got two days off after that Game 7 win over Boston to rest and recover, which is a big deal. They get two games off in between games a lot this series as well, so they'll be able to recover. I think they will be the sharper team tonight as well after having just played on May 29th.
Plays on road underdogs (Miami) - revenging a home loss against an opponent that is off a road win by 3 points or less are 32-11 (74.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Miami is 27-14 ATS in its last 41 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Heat are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Bet the Heat in Game 1 Thursday.
|05-29-23||Heat v. Celtics UNDER 203.5||Top||103-84||Win||100||45 h 49 m||Show|
25* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Heat/Celtics UNDER 203.5
Death, taxes and Game 7 UNDERS. They have been a cash cow in the NBA playoffs for decades. It makes sense because with so much at stake, teams play tight and defensive intensity is at an all-time high. That will be the case in this Game 7 between the Heat and Celtics.
We have seen the scoring really fall off a cliff in this series as it has gone on. They went for 215 combined points in Game 4 which was a series low, 207 points in Game 5 which was a series low and then 207 points in Game 6 to tie the series low. Expect Game 7 to stay UNDER 203.5 for a new series low here Monday night.
Boston is 9-0 UNDER in its last nine playoff games when facing elimination, which have all come over the past two seasons. Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Monday.
|05-27-23||Celtics v. Heat UNDER 210.5||Top||104-103||Win||100||11 h 26 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Heat Game 6 No-Brainer on UNDER 210.5
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. The longer a series goes, the more teams become familiar with one another and points get harder to come by. Teams tend to play slower as well with fewer fast break opportunities.
Game 5 was the lowest scoring game of the series with 207 combined points despite both teams shooting very well from the floor. The Celtics shot 50.6% while the Heat shot 51.3%. Both teams aren't likely to shoot that well again, and this game is likely to stay UNDER 210.5 combined points as a result.
Boston is 8-0 UNDER in its last eight games when facing elimination in a playoff series. Miami is 14-6 UNDER after scoring 100 points or less this season. The UNDER is 15-4 in Celtics last 19 road games with a line of +3 to -3. Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Saturday.
|05-25-23||Heat v. Celtics UNDER 215.5||Top||97-110||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
20* Heat/Celtics Game 5 No-Brainer on UNDER 215.5
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. The longer a series goes, the more familiar teams become with one another and the more difficult it is to score. They also tend to slow down the pace the longer a series goes.
We saw the lowest combined points in Game 4 last time out as the Heat and Celtics combined for 215 points. I look for them to combine for 215 or fewer in Game 5 as well with the Celtics facing elimination, they will be locked in defensively. The Heat are always locked in defensively.
Miami is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 road games after scoring 100 points or fewer. Boston is 8-0 UNDER when facing elimination in the playoffs over the last three seasons. Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Tuesday.
|05-23-23||Celtics v. Heat -120||Top||116-99||Loss||-120||9 h 58 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Heat Game 4 No-Brainer on Miami ML -120
The Boston Celtics quit in Game 3 and are lost right now. Their season ends in a sweep at the hands of the Miami Heat, who have been the most impressive team in the playoffs knocking off the Bucks, Knicks and now the Celtics tonight.
Boston is 0-7 ATS when revenging two consecutive losses as a favorite this season. Miami is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 playoff games. The Heat are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Heat in Game 4 Tuesday.
|05-22-23||Nuggets v. Lakers -3||Top||113-111||Loss||-108||11 h 60 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Lakers Game 4 No-Brainer on Los Angeles -3
The Los Angeles Lakers won't go away quietly. They are 11-2 in their last 13 home games dating back to the regular season. They are also 7-1 at home in the postseason dating back to the play-in win over the Timberwolves.
Considering the Lakers were 5.5-point home favorites in Game 3 and are now only 3-point home favorites in Game 4, we are getting a discount on them here and the value is there to pull the trigger. Game 3's home loss was their lone defeat at home in the postseason, and was the abberration.
The Nuggets shot 50% as a team in Game 3 and 17-of-41 (41.5%) from 3-point range and committed only five turnovers.. I have a hard time believing they are going to shoot that well again, or take care of the ball that well. Look for them to relax a little after taking a commanding 3-0 lead knowing they got two more home games to finish off the Lakers if need be.
Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA Lakers) - revenging a same-season loss vs. opponent that's off an upset win by 10 points or more as a road underdog are 37-10 (78.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Denver is 9-18 ATS following three or more consecutive wins this season. Los Angeles is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points. Bet the Lakers in Game 4 Monday.
|05-21-23||Celtics -3 v. Heat||Top||102-128||Loss||-110||42 h 4 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Heat Game 3 No-Brainer on Boston -3
The Boston Celtics have come up with clutch road wins in the playoffs when they have needed them over the past couple seasons. They staved off elimination with a win in Game 6 at Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference Finals last year. Last series, they staved off elimination with a 95-86 win at Philadelphia in Game 6 to force a Game 7.
This is essentially a must-win for the Celtics after losing the first two games of this series to the Heat at home. I think we get their best effort here as a result, and it will be good enough to cover this 3-point spread. They are still the better team in this series and that will show tonight.
Miami is 13-27 ATS following an ATS win this season. Boston is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games following two consecutive upset losses as a favorite. The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss. Boston is 4-1 ATS In its last five trips to Miami. Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Sunday.
|05-20-23||Nuggets v. Lakers -3.5||Top||119-108||Loss||-110||45 h 14 m||Show|
25* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Lakers -3.5
Note: I locked this in at -3.5 as soon as the line came out. I would still play it up to -5.5.
The Los Angeles Lakers won't go down without a fight and showed that in the first two games of this series. They lost by 6 points in Game 1 despite the Nuggets shooting 54.9% as a team and 46.9% from 3. They lost by 5 in Game 2 despite shooting just 8-of-30 (26.7%) from 3 themselves while the Nuggets made six more 3-pointers than them and Jamal Murray going off in the 4th quarter.
Now the Lakers are back home where they are 7-0 in the postseason dating back to the play-in win over the Timberwolves. The Lakers are 11-1 SU in their last 12 home games dating back to the regular season. They have a huge home-court advantage. The Nuggets have been vulnerable on the road going 1-3 SU in their last four playoff road games. They have a losing record (21-25) on the season away from home.
Denver is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games following two or more consecutive wins. The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff games following a loss, covering the spread by 17.2 points per game. Los Angeles is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (60% to 70%) this season . The Lakers are 10-1 ATS in home games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 3-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons. Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Denver. The home team has won all six meetings between the Nuggets and Lakers this season all by 5 points or more. Bet the Lakers in Game 3 Saturday.
|05-19-23||Heat v. Celtics -8.5||Top||111-105||Loss||-110||36 h 39 m||Show|
20* Heat/Celtics Game 2 No-Brainer on Boston -8.5
The Boston Celtics were flat in Game 1 after winning Game 7 against the Philadelphia 76ers last series. I cashed the Heat +8.5 anticipating that would be the case. But I expect the Celtics to fire back with a blowout victory in Game 2 at home.
The Heat shot 54.1% as a team and 16-of-31 (51.6%) from 3-point range in Game 1. That's not going to happen again. The Heat will be the team relaxing a little here after gaining home-court advantage and won't be playing with the same sense of urgency that they did in Game 1.
Boston is 19-9 ATS off an upset win as a home favorite this season. The Heat are 12-27 ATS following an ATS win this season. Teams down 0-1 in a series at home are now 23-1 SU & 22-2 ATS since 2019. This has been a very profitable system and it makes 100% sense. Bet the Celtics in Game 2 Friday.
|05-18-23||Lakers +6.5 v. Nuggets||Top||103-108||Win||100||45 h 1 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Nuggets Game 2 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +6.5
The Los Angeles Lakers trailed by 20-plus points against the Nuggets but still had a chance to tie Game 1 late a couple times. They wound up losing by 6. The adjustments they made in the 2nd half are something that can work to their advantage the rest of this series, including in Game 2.
The Lakers switched Rui Hachimura onto Nikola Jokic and he did a great job staying in front of him. That allowed Anthony Davis to roam around and be a stopper inside. The weak link of the Nuggets is Aaron Gordon from 3-point range, so the Lakers can let Davis guard Gordon so he can roam and make him try to beat them.
The fact that the Nuggets shot 54.9% from the field and 15-of-32 (46.9%) from 3-point range in Game 1 and still only won by 6 is a good sign for the Lakers moving forward. They aren't likely to shoot that well again the rest of the series.
The Lakers are 22-12 ATS when revenging a loss this season. Denver is 8-17 ATS following three or more consecutive wins this season. Los Angeles is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games following a loss. Bet the Lakers Thursday.
|05-17-23||Heat +8.5 v. Celtics||Top||123-116||Win||100||12 h 4 m||Show|
20* Heat/Celtics Game 1 No-Brainer on Miami +8.5
The Miami Heat have been counted out the entire playoffs, and they are being counted out again in this series. Expect them to play with a chip on their shoulder in Game 1 of this series with the Celtics, who they beat in each of their final two regular season, including once on the road as 7-point dogs.
I expect the Celtics to take a breather after winning Game 7 against the 76ers last series. They will come out flat in Game 1. They were flat in practice and I don't expect them to turn it on for Game 1. The Heat also have a nice rest advantage last playing on May 12th while the Celtics last played on May 14th.
Miami is 24-13 ATS in its last 37 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Boston is 0-9 ATS in home games when revenging a road loss this season. The Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. Miami is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 trips to Boston. Bet the Heat in Game 1 Wednesday.
|05-16-23||Lakers +6 v. Nuggets||Top||126-132||Push||0||15 h 33 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Nuggets Game 1 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +6
The Los Angeles Lakers have made a statement in Game 1 in each of their first two series this season. They went on the road and beat Memphis 128-112 as a 5-point underdog. They went on the road and beat Golden State 117-112 as a 4.5-point dog as well.
I think it will be more of the same here in Game 1 at Denver. LeBron James knows the importance of winning Game 1 of a series. The Lakers will be 'all in' to get the job done, and at the very least I think it will be good enough to cover this 6-point spread.
The Lakers have proven themselves more than the Nuggets have in these playoffs. They were underdogs in both of their series against Memphis and Golden State, the defending champs. They disposed of both in six games. The Nuggets got to play the Timberwolves and a depleted Suns team with no depth and needed six games to get past them.
The Lakers have remained healthy all postseason which has been their key, and are healthy coming into this one. The Nuggets are also healthy outside Jamal Murray, who is a non-covid related illness coming into Game 1 and is questionable. Denver is 6-18 ATS following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more over the last three seasons. Bet the Lakers in Game 1 Tuesday.
|05-14-23||76ers v. Celtics UNDER 202.5||Top||88-112||Win||100||50 h 29 m||Show|
20* 76ers/Celtics Game 7 No-Brainer on UNDER 202.5
Game 7 UNDERS have been a cash cow in the NBA playoffs over the last several decades. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and by the 7th meeting teams are extremely familiar with one another. It suppresses scoring and favors defense.
That's especially the case in this specific Game 7 as the 76ers and Celtics have had two days off in between games to prepare for this winner-take-all. These teams combined for just 181 points in Game 6 with scoring suppressed, and it should be more of the same in Game 7.
One tactical move in Game 6 that benefited the Celtics was playing center Robert Williams III more minutes, and not giving Derrick White so many minutes. It made them much better defensively in trying to guard Joel Embiid and protecting the rim. That tactical decision will keep scoring suppressed in Game 7 as Williams makes the Celtics much better defensively, but hurts their spacing offensively.
Boston is 22-8 UNDER when playing on two days' rest over the last two seasons. Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Sunday.
|05-12-23||Warriors v. Lakers -145||Top||101-122||Win||100||12 h 56 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles ML -145
LeBron James hasn't lost a closeout game at home in the playoffs since 2008. He gets it done when he has the chance, and that's precisely what he and the Lakers will do in Game 6 here against the Warriors, who have struggled on the road all season.
The Lakers are 11-1 SU in their last 12 home games. They are a perfect 6-0 SU at home in the playoffs. The Warriors are 13-34 SU on the road this season. They could be without Andrew Wiggins, who has a rib injury suffered in Game 5. The Lakers are expected to be fully healthy as Anthony Davis avoided a concussion despite leaving Game 5. Bet the Lakers on the Money Line in Game 6 Friday.
|05-12-23||Knicks +6.5 v. Heat||92-96||Win||100||9 h 7 m||Show|
15* Knicks/Heat ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York +6.5
Jalen Brunson refused to let his team lose in Game 5 as the Knicks avoided elimination with a 112-103 victory behind 38 points from Brunson, 26 from Barrett and 24 from Randle. Brunson and company won't go down without a fight in Game 6, either.
The Miami Heat were counted out and it's impressive they have gotten to this point despite being an underdog in eight of their 10 playoff games thus far. But now they are getting too much respect as 6.5-point favorites in Game 6. They were only 4 and 4.5-point favorites against the Knicks in their first two home games in this series. The value is clearly with the road underdog here.
The Knicks are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 road games. Bet the Knicks in Game 6 Friday.
|05-11-23||Celtics -135 v. 76ers||Top||95-86||Win||100||8 h 19 m||Show|
20* Celtics/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Boston ML -135
The Boston Celtics had a bit of a hangover in Game 5 after falling in OT in Game 4 after Marcus Smart's 3-pointer at the buzzer in OT was just a split-second late. They came back and shot 39.8% as a team while the 76ers shot 50% in Game 5. Look for that to be reversed in Game 6 as the Celtics won't shoot that poorly again.
James Harden has put together consecutive impressive games, but to ask him to do it three games in a row is asking a lot. The Celtics will make their adjustments on him and make others try and beat them. Joel Embiid clearly isn't healthy, and I just can't see the 76ers taking advantage of this pressure-packed close out opportunity. The Celtics have more experience together in these must-win games, which is huge.
Plays on any team on the money line (Boston) - revenging a SU loss vs. opponent of 7 points or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 62-12 (83.8%) SU over the last five seasons. Bet the Celtics on the Money Line in Game 6 Thursday.
|05-10-23||Heat v. Knicks UNDER 210||Top||103-112||Loss||-110||9 h 46 m||Show|
20* Heat/Knicks TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 210
This is the highest total of the series between the Knicks and Heat. There's clearly value with the UNDER when you consider how familiar these teams are with one another, plus the added pressure of this being a close out game with the Heat trying to win the series and the Knicks trying to stave off elimination.
These teams both shot great in Game 4 and still only combined for 210 points. The Knicks shot 48.7% from the field while the Heat shot 47.1%. Immanuel Quickley is doubtful for the Knicks and he is their scoring spark plug off the bench. They have struggled offensively without him scoring just 86 points in Game 3 and 101 points in Game 4.
The UNDER is 7-2 in Knicks last nine games overall. The UNDER is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings in New York. Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Wednesday.
|05-09-23||76ers v. Celtics -7.5||Top||115-103||Loss||-110||9 h 33 m||Show|
20* 76ers/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Boston -7.5
The Boston Celtics bounced back from an upset loss in Game 1 where James Harden went off for the 76ers with a 121-87 home victory in Game 2. After Harden went off in Game 4, I don't trust him to put together two consecutive monster games as he rarely does.
The 76ers need him to because Joel Embiid is clearly hobbled with that knee injury and not himself. Al Horford owned in him the 4th quarter and OT of Game 4, which isn't something that would happen if Embiid was healthy. That puts a lot of Harden and company, especially going on the road here in a hostile environment in Game 5 against a pissed of Celtics team.
The Celtics are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss. Boston is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss. The Celtics are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. We get a big effort from the Celtics in Game 5 tonight that should have them covering this 7.5-point spread. Bet the Celtics Tuesday.
|05-08-23||Knicks +4.5 v. Heat||Top||101-109||Loss||-110||10 h 46 m||Show|
20* Knicks/Heat TNT No-Brainer on New York +4.5
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the New York Knicks in Game 4 tonight. They have failed to cover the spread in every game in this series and are coming off a 19-point loss in Game 3 in which they shot 34.1% as a team and 8-of-40 (20%) from 3-point range. They aren't going to shoot even close to that poorly again in Game 4.
Jalen Brunson is the leader of this team and had a big Game 2 after an inspirational speech to his team after a Game 1 loss. He showed how good he could be in the playoffs last year with the Mavericks, and he is one of the most underrated players in the league. Look for Brunson to respond with a huge Game 4 to lead the way for the Knicks in a game I think they win outright to even this series, but we'll take the 4.5 points for some insurance.
Brunson had 30, Randle 25 and Barrett 24 in the Game 2 response. Look for this trio to lead the way in Game 4. The Heat don't have three players that can match these three as it's Butler, Adebayo and a bunch of role players that have played well to get them to this point. I'm just not sure it's sustainable the rest of the way, including in Game 4 tonight.
The Knicks are a perfect 7-0 ATS after scoring 100 points or less this season, bouncing back to win by an average of 11.2 points per game in this spot. New York is 38-17-1 ATS in its last 56 road games. Bet the Knicks in Game 4 Monday.
|05-07-23||Nuggets v. Suns -2.5||124-129||Win||100||10 h 35 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Suns TNT ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix -2.5
Devin Booker and Kevin Durant scored 86 points combined to lead the Suns to a critical Game 3 victory. They are two of the best players in the NBA and are capable of doing it again. Plus, they had others step up around them and that will continue at home tonight.
Cameron Payne pushes the tempo more than Chris Paul and got them a lot of easy looks with his six assists. Jack Landale was huge off the bench and actually played better than DeAndre Ayton, and it would be a bonus if the Suns could get anything from Ayton. TJ Warren hit two huge shots late to help them seal the victory. But either way, Booker and Durant are good enough to carry this team to victory again.
Phoenix is 31-14 at home while Denver is just 20-24 on the road. The Suns were 4-point home favorites in Game 3 and now we are getting them at a discount in comparison as only 2.5-point home favorites in Game 4. We'll take the value and back them to get the job done in Game 4.
Denver is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 road games when revenging a road loss. Bet the Suns in Game 4 Sunday.
|05-07-23||Celtics v. 76ers +2.5||Top||115-116||Win||100||5 h 21 m||Show|
20* Celtics/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +2.5
This is a must-win for the 76ers in Game 4 if they want to get back in this series. With how good their home-court advantage is, I expect them to get the job done and to avoid losing three in a row to the Celtics after upsetting them in Game 1.
The 76ers are 31-13 SU & 27-17 ATS at home this season. They only shot 39.7% as a team in Game 3 and I can't see them shooting that poorly again. They also shot just 39.2% on the road in Game 2 after shooting 50.6% in Game 1. Look for them to get back to closer to that 50% mark in this one.
Philadelphia is 22-10 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The 76ers are 17-7 ATS when revenging a loss this season. Philadelphia is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games following a double-digit home loss. Bet the 76ers in Game 4 Sunday.
|05-06-23||Warriors v. Lakers -2.5||Top||97-127||Win||100||32 h 53 m||Show|
25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Lakers -2.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Lakers after getting blown out in Game 2 at Golden State. We saw them relax in Round 1 upsetting the Grizzlies in Game 1 before losing by double-digits in Game 2. They came back and beat Memphis by double-digits at home in Game 3, and it will be more of the same here against the Warriors.
Golden State is one of the worst road teams in the NBA let alone in the playoffs. The Warriors are 13-32 SU & 15-30 ATS on the road this season. The Lakers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 home games and have won all four playoff home games by 6 points or more.
The Lakers are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 playoff games when the series is tied. The Warriors are 17-36-1 ATS in their last 54 road games. Golden State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following an ATS win. The Warriors have made 42 3-pointers in two games in this series and won't be nearly as effective shooting the 3 on the road here. Bet the Lakers in Game 3 Saturday.
|05-06-23||Knicks +4 v. Heat||86-105||Loss||-107||6 h 47 m||Show|
15* Knicks/Heat ABC ANNIHILATOR on New York +4
The New York Knicks have failed to cover the spread in each of their first two games in this series against the Miami Heat. It's now time to 'buy low' on the Knicks as 4-point dogs in Game 3. They were 4-point favorites in Game 1 and 9-point favorites in Game 2, so this is a massive adjustment.
Jimmy Butler is expected to return today, but he's still going to be a little hobbled with that ankle injury. And I believe the Knicks are the better team even with a healthy Butler, so getting 4 points with them is a nice value.
The Heat shot the 3 terribly all season and have just gotten hot from 3 in the playoffs to get to this point. I don't see it lasting, and this team still has a lot of flaws outside of Butler. He has way too much on his shoulders to carry this team much further.
The Knicks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games after outrebounding their last opponent by 15-plus boards. New York is 38-16-1 ATS in its last 55 road games and has been one of the best road teams in the NBA this season. The Heat are 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 games following an ATS win. Bet the Knicks Saturday.
|05-05-23||Nuggets v. Suns -3.5||Top||114-121||Win||100||84 h 21 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Suns ESPN No-Brainer on Phoenix -3.5
The Phoenix Suns are in must-win mode in Game 3 tonight after losing the first two games of this series to the Denver Nuggets. I expect them to bounce back in a big way at home to get back into this series.
The Suns are 30-14 at home this season while the Nuggets are 20-23 SU & 19-22-2 ATS on the road. I think the Nuggets relax a bit after retaining home-court advantage, including a 4th quarter comeback win in Game 2.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings. The Suns are 3-0 SU in their last three home meetings with the Nuggets winning by 4, 7 and 29 points.
Denver is 4-12 ATS in road games following two or more consecutive wins this season. The Nuggets are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more. Phoenix is 13-4 ATS in home games after playing a road game this season. The Suns are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Bet the Suns in Game 3 Friday.
|05-05-23||Celtics v. 76ers +2.5||114-102||Loss||-105||9 h 22 m||Show|
15* Celtics/76ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +2.5
After getting embarrassed with an 87-121 loss at Boston in Game 2, we'll 'buy low' on the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 3 as home underdogs. They will respond in a big way tonight, especially with Joel Embiid in his second game back from injury. He will be much more effective at home tonight, and James Harden should bounce back as well.
After making 17 3-pointers in Game 1's upset victory, the 76ers went just 6-of-30 (20%) in Game 2. They aren't going to shoot that poorly again. Also don't expect the Celtics to make 20 3-pointers again like they did in Game 2.
The 76ers have played the Celtics tough at home in their two meetings this season. They lost by 3 as 1-point dogs and won outright as 3.5-point dogs. The 76ers are 31-12 SU & 27-16 ATS at home this season and have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. Philadelphia is 12-2 ATS when revenging a road loss this season. The 76ers are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 home games. Bet the 76ers in Game 3 Friday.
|05-04-23||Lakers v. Warriors UNDER 227.5||Top||100-127||Win||100||21 h 55 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Warriors ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 227.5
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. The longer a series goes on, the oddsmakers usually adjust the total down. That hasn't been the case in this series as this Game 2 total (227.5) is actually higher than Game 1 (227).
The Lakers and Warriors barely sneaked over that number finishing with 229 combined points. The Warriors made 21 3-pointers in Game 1 and that is unlikely to happen again. The Lakers have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA since the All-Star Break.
The Warriors have gotten better defensively in the playoffs by playing Kevon Looney more minutes. He has been a beast down low for them defensively, and having him and Draymond Green on the court a lot makes them better on that end. Gary Payton II is also a great defender, and getting Andrew Wiggins back for the playoffs has made them better on that end.
The Lakers have seen 229 or fewer combined points in six consecutive games, including 215 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in five of their last six games. The Warriors went for 217 and 220 combined points in their final two games against the Kings, who play at a much faster pace than the Lakers. Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Thursday.
|05-02-23||Lakers +4.5 v. Warriors||Top||117-112||Win||100||12 h 17 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles +4.5
I like fading teams in Game 1 of their next series after winning a Game 7 the series prior. A 7-game series takes a lot out of a team, and it especially took a lot out of the Warriors having to play the up-tempo Kings. The Warriors lack depth this season, which is a big reason they aren't as good as they have been in previous seasons.
The Warriors have only had one day off to recover from that seven-game series and will be playing their 4th game in 7 days. Meanwhile, the Lakers have had the last three days off and will be rested and ready to go for this series. That's a huge rest advantage heading into Game 1, and I fully expect the Lakers to pull off the upset tonight because of it.
The Lakers have shown what they are capable of when healthy since the All-Star Break. They are 22-9 SU in their last 31 games overall. They won Game 1 on the road against Memphis 128-112 as 5-point dogs. The Lakers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Warriors this season winning outright by 8 as 5-point home dogs, by 13 as 6-point home favorites and outright by 6 as 5.5-point road dogs. Bet the Lakers in Game 1 Tuesday.
|05-01-23||Suns +4.5 v. Nuggets||Top||87-97||Loss||-107||29 h 12 m||Show|
20* Suns/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix +4.5
Kevin Durant is 25-3 in his last 28 games in which he has played dating back to Thanksgiving. I liked what I heard from him in the press conference after a bad Game 1 loss to the Nuggets. I fully expect Durant and the Suns to bounce back, and getting them as 4.5-point underdogs in Game 2 is a tremendous value.
While the Suns will fire back with a better effort, the Nuggets could relax a little after winning Game 1 so convincingly. I have a hard time seeing Jamal Murray playing as well as he did again, and for the Nuggets to make nine more 3-pointers than the Suns again.
Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after two straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 50% or higher. Phoenix is 28-14 ATS in its last 42 games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more. Phoenix is 5-2 ATS in its last seven trips to Denver. We may never get the opportunity to back the Suns as this big of an underdog again, so we'll take advantage. Bet the Suns in Game 2 Monday.
|05-01-23||76ers v. Celtics OVER 213.5||119-115||Win||100||27 h 39 m||Show|
15* 76ers/Celtics TNT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 213.5
The Boston Celtics and Atlanta Hawks combined for 225 or more points in six of their last seven games. This is a very low total for a game involving Boston, one of the best offensive teams in the NBA.
The reason the total is so low is because Joel Embiid is doubtful. But I think that is overblown here because the 76ers are going to go to more of a small ball lineup without him, which will make them play faster and will favor the OVER because they are much worse off defensively without him. I think they can make up for his loss on offense with playmakers like Harden, Harris, Maxey and Melton.
I also like the fact that both teams are fresh with the 76ers being off since April 22nd and the Celtics being off since April 27th. Both teams are going to have plenty of energy to get up and down the court in this one. I expect this to be more of a shootout than the books expect, and if I'm going to back an OVER in the playoffs it's usually going to be in Game 1 with teams not as familiar with one another. Both coaches will have a few tricks up their sleeves to get easy buckets in Game 1 before the defenses can adjust throughout the series.
Boston is 7-0 OVER after five straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better this season. The OVER is 4-0 in Celtics last four games overall. Bet the OVER in Game 1 Monday.
|04-30-23||Warriors v. Kings +1.5||Top||120-100||Loss||-110||27 h 38 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Kings ABC No-Brainer on Sacramento +1.5
Although this series is tied 3-3, it's clear to me that the Sacramento Kings have been the better team in this series. Their resiliency in Game 6 winning blowing out the Warriors 118-99 as 7-point road underdogs says all you need to know about the mental state of this team.
The Kings made all the right adjustments in Game 6 and really showed what they were capable of defensively limiting the Warriors to fewer than 100 points. Nothing came easy for the Warriors, while a lot came easy for the Kings, including getting out in transition. They will push the pace again, and they will come up with another great defensive effort at home to win this series in Game 7.
The Warriors have many shortcomings this season that have come to fruition in the playoffs, most notably they aren't a very good defensive team. Curry, Poole and Thompson are all bad defenders, and the Kings have been exploiting them all series. The Warriors aren't comfortable playing Poole for big minutes because of his liabilities on defense, but they lose a lot without him on the court offensively. They are just getting a lot of credit due to their reputation in the past, but this isn't the same old Warriors. These aren't the same old Kings either as they won the most stacked division in the NBA and it was no fluke.
The Warriors are 12-32 SU & 14-30 ATS on the road this season. Sacramento is 10-1 ATS after losing three of its last four games this season. The Warriors are 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53 road games overall. Sacramento is 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings. Bet the Kings in Game 7 Sunday.
|04-29-23||Suns +3.5 v. Nuggets||Top||107-125||Loss||-109||10 h 55 m||Show|
20* Suns/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix +3.5
It's rare that you're going to get the opportunity to back the Phoenix Suns as an underdog the rest of the way. We'll take advantage in Game 1 and back a Suns team that is currently the second-favorite to win the NBA title due to all the talent they have on hand.
Kevin Durant is now 25-2 in the last 27 games he has played dating back to Thanksgiving. The Suns are really forming chemistry with Durant, Booker, Ayton and Paul and their starting five is the best in the NBA. They do have some depth concerns, but they are rested after having the last three days off and are primed for a big effort in Game 1.
The Timberwolves took the Nuggets to the wire in each of the final four games last series. The Nuggets have too many holes defensively as Jokic, Porter Jr. and Murray are not known for defense. That is going to really hurt them in this series, starting with Game 1. The Suns have more experience in these big game situations as the Nuggets continue to be a disappointment in the playoffs. Bet the Suns in Game 1 Saturday.
|04-28-23||Grizzlies v. Lakers -4.5||Top||85-125||Win||100||11 h 27 m||Show|
20* Grizzlies/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4.5
The Memphis Grizzlies are 0-24 SU in their last 24 games as road underdogs. That includes 0-18 SU & 2-16 ATS as road underdogs this season. The Grizzlies are 1-15 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season as well.
LeBron James took Game 5 off and saved up for Game 6. Now expect a big effort from James and company in Game 6 at home tonight to close out this series. The Grizzlies haven't had an answer on the road all season against good teams, including in this series. It will be a tremendous atmosphere in Los Angeles Friday night and a tremendous advantage for the Lakers laying this short number.
JA Morant is battling wrist, ankle and knee injuries right now. Luke Kennard just suffered a shoulder injury in Game 5 and likely will miss Game 6, leaving the Grizzlies short on outside shooting. The Lakers are fully healthy and showing what they are capable of when that's the case with the way they closed out the regular season just to make the playoffs, plus how they have played in the playoffs to this point. It continues with another big effort tonight. Bet the Lakers in Game 6 Friday.
|04-28-23||Kings +7.5 v. Warriors||Top||118-99||Win||100||9 h 56 m||Show|
20* Kings/Warriors ESPN No-Brainer on Sacramento +7.5
Four of the five games in this series went down to the wire decided by 8 points or fewer. The lone exception was Game 3 in a must-win for the Warriors after losing the first two games in Sacramento. I think Game 6 goes to the wire as well, so there's clear value here catching 7.5 points with the Kings.
Sacramento is 9-1 ATS in road games when playing with triple revenge over the last two seasons. The Kings are 8-1 ATS in road games when revenging a same-season loss this season. Sacramento is 35-17-1 ATS in its last 53 road games. The Kings are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 trips to Golden State. Bet the Kings in Game 6 Friday.
|04-26-23||Warriors v. Kings -120||Top||123-116||Loss||-120||73 h 41 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento ML -120
I locked in this pick before the D'Aaron Fox news of the fractured tip of his finger, but the injury doesn't seem to serious and he's expected to play. So that was great news, and you'll get a better line on the Kings now if you haven't bet it already. I still like the Kings at the current price.
Sacramento has one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA when they are good, and the atmospheres for Games 1 and 2 were tremendous. They won both games, and I expect them to take Game 5 and regain control of this series at home tonight.
The Warriors are 11-32 SU & 13-30 ATS on the road this season. They have been the worst NBA playoff team in the NBA on the highway this season. And it just shows that the Kings are the better team when you consider Golden State played nearly a perfect Game 4 and still only won by a single point. They shot 50% overall, 41.2% from 3 and 91.7% from the FT line. That's not going to happen in Sacramento.
The Warriors are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 road games. The Kings are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss. Sacramento is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with Golden State. Bet the Kings in Game 5 Wednesday.
|04-26-23||Lakers v. Grizzlies UNDER 222||99-116||Win||100||11 h 28 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Grizzlies UNDER 222
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. After combining for 240 points in Game 1, the Lakes and Grizzlies have combined for 196 points in Game 2, 212 points in Game 3 and 208 points at the end of regulation in Game 4. I think the fact that Game 4 went to OT and finished at 228 is keeping this total higher than it should be, and there's tremendous value with the UNDER.
The Lakers have been the best defensive team in the NBA since the All-Star Break, which is the biggest reason for their resurgence. They have held the Grizzlies to 112, 103, 101 and 104 points at the end of regulation in this series. Memphis is a great defensive team as well with Defensive POTY Jaren Jackson Jr. anchoring them. JA Morant being banged up also hampers the Grizzlies offensively.
The UNDER is 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings. The UNDER is 10-1-1 in the last 12 meetings in Memphis. The UNDER is 10-3 in Grizzlies last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Wednesday.
|04-26-23||Knicks v. Cavs -5.5||106-95||Loss||-110||11 h 58 m||Show|
15* Knicks/Cavaliers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -5.5
I'll gladly back the more motivated Cleveland Cavaliers with their backs against the wall tonight against a New York Knicks team that can relax a little after taking a 3-1 series lead by winning both games at home. This game will play out similarly to Game 2 when the Cavaliers bounced back from an upset home loss in Game 1 with a 107-90 blowout in a game that was never competitive.
Cleveland has one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA as they are 32-11 at home this season. The Cavaliers are 9-1 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games this season. Bet the Cavaliers in Game 5 Wednesday.
|04-25-23||Wolves +10 v. Nuggets||109-112||Win||100||11 h 48 m||Show|
15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +10
The close out game is always the hardest, especially for a team like the Denver Nuggets that has been a disappointment in the playoffs for years under Nikola Jokic. They failed to close out the Timberwolves in Game 4 and lost in OT, giving Minnesota new life.
I think the Timberwolves are a dangerous team now playing on house money catching 10 points against the Nuggets in Game 5. They have been competitive in each of the last three games, which have all been decided by 9 points or less. Game 1 can pretty much be thrown out because it was a terrible spot for the Timberwolves coming off a pair of play-in games and on little rest.
The Timberwolves are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 meetings in Denver. The Nuggets are 21-35 ATS in their last 56 home games after playing a road game. Bet the Timberwolves in Game 5 Tuesday.
|04-24-23||Grizzlies v. Lakers -4||Top||111-117||Win||100||25 h 50 m||Show|
20* Grizzlies/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4
The Los Angeles Lakers are simply the better team in this series. They are fully healthy and showing what they are capable of when that's the case. They are now 12-3 SU In their last 15 games overall and came up clutch just trying to make the playoffs, and that has carried over into the postseason.
The Grizzlies are missing key players in Steven Adams and Brandon Clark, which really hurts them defensively. Dillon Brooks is a mad man whose head isn't in this series, and he's more concerned with his antics. And JA Morant suffered a wrist injury in Game 1 that he's playing through, plus another injury in the final seconds of Game 3 to his lower leg that could hamper him heading into Game 4.
I think it says everything that Morant had 45 points in Game 3 and the Grizzlies were still never in that game or competitive. They trailed 38-9 to start the game and most of his points came in garbage time with the game pretty much decided. The Grizzlies don't have very good depth off the bench, while this is some of the best depth LeBron has ever had. The Lakers actually increased their lead in Game 3 when he went to the bench. Guys like Reaves, Hachimura, Russell, Schroder and Vanderbilt are playing very well to compliment LeBron and AD.
Memphis is 0-17 SU & 2-15 ATS as a road underdog this season, including 1-14 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less. We'll continue fading the Grizzlies as road underdogs here as they have been a terrible team away from home all season, and I don't expect that to change in Game 4. Bet the Lakers in Game 4 Monday.
|04-23-23||Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 225.5||Top||108-114||Win||100||21 h 0 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Timberwolves TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 225.5
Let's just look at this from a line value perspective. The total for Game 1 was 224.5 and these teams combined for 189 points. They lowered it to 222.5 and 222 for Games 2 and 3, which both went over, and now have raised it back up to 225.5 for Game 4. That's too big of an adjustment, and there's clearly value on the UNDER as a result.
There's also value on the UNDER when you consider Minnesota and Denver won't be able to keep shooting as well as they have the past two games. Denver shot 54.1% and Minnesota 50.6% in Game 2 and both shot better than 45% from 3. Denver shot 57.1% in Game 3 and Minnesota 45.6%. The Nuggets specifically can't stay this hot.
The pace has actually been very slow in this series, and it will be even slower in Game 4 as familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. The longer a series goes, the harder points are to come by because teams know each other so well.
Minnesota is 16-4 UNDER in its last 20 home games after going over the total in its previous game. The UNDER is 12-4 in Nuggets last 16 games overall. The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Timberwolves last seven Sunday games. The UNDER is 11-5-1 in Timberwolves last 17 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|04-23-23||Kings v. Warriors UNDER 237.5||125-126||Loss||-110||15 h 0 m||Show|
15* Kings/Warriors ABC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 237.5
The playoffs just have a way of slowing games down. While both Sacramento and Golden State want to play fast, it's hard to when these teams get familiar with one another and know what to expect. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and that has proven to be the case in this series.
After combining for 249 points in Game 1, the Warriors and Kings combined for just 220 points in Game 2 and 211 points in Game 3. So we have a lot of margin for error here with this 237.5-point total compared to the last two games.
The Kings have actually done a very good job of defending the Warriors in this series and have upped their game on that end. The Warriors are a lot more locked in defensively in these playoffs, and they get their best defender in Draymond Green back. Plus getting both Wiggins and Payton II back from injury has made them a better defensive team, and Kevon Looney is holding it down inside.
Golden State is 7-0 UNDER in home games after allowing 105 points or less this season. Sacramento is 14-3 UNDER in road games vs. a team with a winning record this season. The UNDER is 6-1 in Kings last seven games overall. The UNDER is 17-5-1 in Warriors last 23 games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|04-22-23||Grizzlies v. Lakers -4.5||Top||101-111||Win||100||57 h 5 m||Show|
25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Lakers -4.5
After winning Game 1 128-112 on the road, the Lakers relaxed in Game 2, especially with the Grizzlies without JA Morant due to a wrist injury. They won't make the same mistake in Game 3, and I look for them to fire back with a blowout home victory in this one.
Dillon Brooks called LeBron James old after the Game 2 win. You know LeBron won't take that lightly and will be fully locked in to make a statement, and his teammates will have his back. The Lakers' role players have played well in this series, and I expect them to play even better at home to support LeBron and AD.
The Lakers are now 11-3 SU in their last 14 games overall coming up clutch just to try and get into the playoffs. They are showing how good they can be when healthy, which they are right now. The Grizzlies are missing up to three key players if Morant doesn't return. They aren't good enough to hang with the Lakers in this series given their current state, and especially not a 100% motivated Lakers team, which will be the case in Game 3 tonight.
Memphis is 2-14 ATS as a road underdog this season, including 1-13 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less. Memphis is 1-9 ATS in road games vs. good shooting teams making 48% or better this season. The Grizzlies are just 16-25 SU on the road this season and have not played well at all away from home. The Lakers have won six of their last seven at home. Bet the Lakers in Game 3 Saturday.
|04-21-23||Nuggets v. Wolves +2.5||Top||120-111||Loss||-110||33 h 43 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Timberwolves ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +2.5
It's now or never for the Minnesota Timberwolves after falling down 0-2 in this series to the Denver Nuggets. I expect them to fire back in Game 3 here at home. The Timberwolves have played three of their last four playoff games on the road and were competitive in two of them, taking the Lakers to OT in the play-in game and the Nuggets to the wire in Game 2.
But now the Timberwolves at back home where they were much more comfortable. In their lone playoff home game, the Timberwolves crushed the upstart Thunder 120-95 as 5.5-point favorites. I think they are getting disrespected here as home underdogs to the Nuggets and will make a statement.
Denver is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games following two or more consecutive wins. Minnesota is 31-16 ATS in its last 47 games when revenging a road loss. Bet the Timberwolves in Game 3 Friday.
|04-20-23||Suns -2.5 v. Clippers||Top||129-124||Win||100||13 h 30 m||Show|
20* Suns/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -2.5
The Phoenix Suns are by far the superior team over the Los Angeles Clippers. They have four stars in Durant, Booker, Ayton and Paul compared to one for the Clippers in Kawhi Leonard, who is having to shoulder too much of the load for them. They are relying on several guys past their primes including Eric Gordon and Russell Westbrook.
Leonard had 31 points in Game 2 and the Clippers still lost by 14. I think we are getting the Suns very cheap here as only 2.5-point favorites in Game 3. Kevin Durant is 22-2 SU in his last 24 games dating back to Thanksgiving. The Suns are finally forming chemistry with him and will be a dangerous team moving forward.
The Clippers are 1-8 ATS in home games off a road loss this season. Los Angeles is 4-15 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more this season. The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Los Angeles. The Clippers only went 23-18 at home this season and don't have that big of a home-court advantage. Bet the Suns in Game 3 Thursday.
|04-19-23||Heat v. Bucks UNDER 219.5||Top||122-138||Loss||-110||12 h 33 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Bucks UNDER 219.5
The Miami Heat lost their second-best player and the Milwaukee Bucks lost their best player to injury in Game 1 of this series. Tyler Herro (20.1 PPG) suffered a fracture hand and is likely to miss the rest of the playoffs. Giannis Antetokounmpo (31.1 PPG) suffered a back injury and is doubtful to play in Game 2.
Without these two, I expect points to be much harder to come by for both teams. The total for Game 1 was 221 and now the total for Game 2 is 219.5, which isn't a big enough adjustment down for these two losses. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and as a series progresses the scoring slows down almost in every series.
The reason the total has stayed relatively high is because Game 1 was an offensive aberration that saw the Heat beat the Bucks 130-117 for 247 combined points. Miami shot 59.5% as a team including a ridiculous 15-of-25 (60%) from 3-point range. That's obviously not going to happen again. I think the defense is much better in Game 2, and the shooting much poorer while also being played at a slower pace. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|04-18-23||Clippers v. Suns -7.5||Top||109-123||Win||100||34 h 51 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -7.5
That was a rare loss for Kevin Durant in Game 1. Durant is 21-2 in his last 23 games dating back to Thanksgiving. I fully expect the Suns to bounce back with a blowout victory in Game 2 after getting upset by the Clippers in Game 1 of this series.
A lot of times in the playoffs you see a team pull off the upset on the road in Game 1 and then let down in Game 2. The home team comes back more motivated and wins in a blowout to tie the series. I believe that's what we see here as the Suns are clearly the better team in this series.
The Suns only made six 3-pointers in Game 1. You can expect them to make double-digits from 3 in Game 2 which will be a big difference in the result. The Clippers remain without Paul George and I think that puts too much of a burden on Kawhi Leonard. The Suns were dominant with Durant prior to that Game 1 loss.
Plays on any team (Phoenix) - revenging a loss as a home favorite of 7 points or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 43-12 (78.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Clippers) - in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Suns in Game 2 Tuesday.
|04-18-23||Knicks v. Cavs -5||Top||90-107||Win||100||31 h 19 m||Show|
20* Knicks/Cavs TNT No-Brainer on Cleveland -5
The Cleveland Cavaliers got dominated on the boards in Game 1 which was their demise. They lost the rebounding battle 51-38 and gave up 17 offensive rebounds. The Cavaliers are a great rebounding team on the season, so don't expect that to happen again.
I expect the Cavaliers to bounce back with a blowout home victory in Game 2 tonight. A lot of times in the playoffs you see a team pull off the upset on the road in Game 1 and then let down in Game 2. The home team comes back the more motivated team and wins in a blowout to tie the series. I believe that's what we see here as the Cavaliers are clearly the better team in this series.
Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games this season. Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five season. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Cleveland) - off two or more consecutive home losses in April games are 43-17 (71.7%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Cavaliers in Game 2 Tuesday.
|04-17-23||Nets +10.5 v. 76ers||84-96||Loss||-115||6 h 24 m||Show|
15* Nets/76ers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn +10.5
The Philadelphia 76ers made 21 3-pointers and had a 19-8 advantage in turnovers in Game 1 over the Brooklyn Nets to win by 20. A lot went right for them in that game, and I don't expect it to be nearly as easy for them in Game 2. I expect the Nets to take this game to the wire tonight.
The Nets are 144-97 ATS in their last 241 road games when revenging a loss. Brooklyn is 14-6 ATS when revenging a road loss this season. The Nets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. Bet the Nets in Game 2 Monday.
|04-16-23||Clippers v. Suns -7.5||Top||115-110||Loss||-110||10 h 16 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Suns TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix -7.5
The Phoenix Suns showed what they were capable of down the stretch when fully healthy and trying to clinch a spot in the playoffs. They went 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS for a stretch with four wins by double-digits. Kevin Durant is now 21-1 SU in his last 22 games played.
This would have been a great series if Paul George was healthy. Instead, there's too much on Kawhi Leonard's shoulders now, and while he is a great player he isn't good enough to beat the Suns on his own. He is going to be trusting too much in Russell Westbrook and Eric Gordon, two veterans on the downside of their careers. Westbrook has been a cancer everywhere he has gone.
I think Durant is the better player than Leonard, plus Booker and Ayton are both better than anything the Clippers have. They won't be able to match up with Booker on the perimeter or Ayton inside as the Clippers are very weak in the paint with Zubac handling most the minutes.
The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win. The Suns are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on three or more days' rest. The Suns are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. This rest is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Suns as they are now ready to make their playoff run as likely the best team in the West as currently constructed. Bet the Suns in Game 1 Sunday.
|04-15-23||Warriors v. Kings||Top||123-126||Win||100||11 h 8 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Kings ABC Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento PK
The Sacramento Kings will be making their first playoff appearance since 2006. It's safe to say it's going to be a tremendous atmosphere for Game 1 of this series with fans ready to let out years of frustration in support of this team.
Mike Brown is the coach of the year leading the Kings to a 48-34 record this season and the 3rd seed in the West. They have stayed remarkably healthy all season and are one of the deepest teams in the NBA. I think they have a huge advantage over the Warriors when the backups are in as the Warriors lack the depth of years' past when they made NBA Finals runs.
Most just expect the Warriors to flip on the switch, but it's not that easy. Andrew Wiggins returns but is going to be rusty after missing the past 25 games. And the Warriors have been one of the worst road teams in the NBA all season, going 11-30 SU & 13-28 ATS on the highway.
Sacramento is 12-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season. Golden State is 16-34-1 ATS in its last 51 road games. The Kings are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings. Bet the Kings Saturday.
|04-15-23||Hawks +9.5 v. Celtics||99-112||Loss||-107||6 h 51 m||Show|
15* Hawks/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta +9.5
The Atlanta Hawks have come up clutch here down the stretch with these games mattering most. They have gone 4-1 SU in games in which they were actually trying and not resting starters, including their dominant 116-105 win at Miami as 5.5-point underdogs in the Play-In to punch their ticket into the playoffs.
The Hawks are brimming with confidence now and ready to give the Celtics a run for their money in Game 1 of this series today. The Celtics are getting a lot of love after making the NBA Finals last year. But they kind of snuck up on everyone in the playoffs last year, and now they are the hunted instead of the hunters. Asking them to win by double-digits in Game 1 to beat us is asking too much.
The Hawks are actually more battle-tested and ready after playing a meaningful game earlier this week. Boston hasn't played a meaningful game since April 4th and could be rusty to open this series as a result. Bet the Hawks Saturday.
|04-14-23||Thunder +5.5 v. Wolves||Top||95-120||Loss||-110||11 h 16 m||Show|
20* Thunder/Timberwolves ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +5.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder are brimming with confidence after upsetting the Pelicans 123-118 on the road last game. The Minnesota Timberwolves are questioning themselves after blowing a double-digit lead and scoring just 16 points in the final 16 minutes in an OT loss to the Lakers.
The Timberwolves are also dealing with the Rudy Gobert distractions and some significant injuries heading into this one. I think 5.5 points is too many for them to be laying against this up-and-coming Thunder team that has been consistently undervalued for two straight seasons and one that just has a knack for playing in close games.
The Thunder are 11-1 ATS when revenging a close loss by 3 points or less over the last two seasons. The Timberwolves are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. Oklahoma City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven trips to Minnesota. Bet the Thunder Friday.
|04-14-23||Bulls +5.5 v. Heat||Top||91-102||Loss||-105||9 h 41 m||Show|
20* Bulls/Heat TNT No-Brainer on Chicago +5.5
The Chicago Bulls come into this game with a ton of confidence after coming back from 19 points down to beat the Raptors last game. I think they are once again catching too many points against the Miami Heat tonight after the Heat are questioning themselves after getting upset 105-116 at home by the Hawks in a game they were never really in.
Adding to the Bulls' confidence is the fact that they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three meetings with the Heat this season with three outright upset victories as underdogs. It should be more of the same here as I expect them to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.
The Heat are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a loss by more than 10 points. Chicago is 14-5 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season. Miami is 9-22 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Bet the Bulls Friday.
|04-12-23||Bulls v. Raptors UNDER 213.5||Top||109-105||Loss||-110||9 h 18 m||Show|
20* Bulls/Raptors ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 213.5
Playoff intensity defense is a different animal. Teams go all regular season without playing much defense especially this season. But it will be different in the playoffs, and I think we get some inflated totals early on we can take advantage of by backing UNDERS. This is one of those totals.
The Raptors rank 25th in pace while the Bulls rank 18th, so this game will be played in the half court. The Bulls have been improved defensively since getting Patrick Beverly and rank 3rd in defensive rating over the past 15 games. The Raptors rank 5th in defensive rating over their past 15 games.
This has been a low scoring series as the UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 202, 208, 217 and 212 points, respectively. As you can see, these teams have combined to go UNDER this 213.5-point total in three of their last four meetings, and those were regular season meetings. I'll be surprised if these teams come close to topping this 213.5-point total while playing with playoff-intensity defense. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|04-11-23||Wolves v. Lakers UNDER 232.5||Top||102-108||Win||100||13 h 58 m||Show|
20* Timberwolves/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 232.5
Playoff intensity defense is a different animal. Teams go all regular season without playing much defense especially this season. But it will be different in the playoffs, and I think we get some inflated totals early on we can take advantage of by backing UNDERS. This is one of those totals.
The Lakers were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA after the All-Star Break. The Timberwolves were great defensively down the stretch to try and get into the playoffs, allowing 108 or fewer points in five of their last eight games overall.
This has been an UNDER series. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with combined scores of 228 or fewer points in six of those seven meetings, including 213 or fewer in five of the seven. This 232.5-point total has been set too high based on series history, plus when you factor in this game will be played with playoff-intensity defense. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|04-09-23||Pelicans v. Wolves UNDER 227||108-113||Win||100||6 h 60 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Timberwolves UNDER 227
Both Minnesota and New Orleans have a lot to play for today. The winner will likely be the 8th seed while the loser will likely be the 9th seed. There's a big difference between the 8th and 9th seed in the play-in round. With so much at stake, defensive intensity in this game will be high.
The UNDER is 19-7 in Pelicans last 26 games overall. The UNDER is 12-2 in Pelicans last 14 road games. The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Minnesota. The UNDER is 5-2 in Timberwolves last seven games overall. The UNDER is 10-4-1 in Timberwolves last 15 home games. Minnesota is 8-0 UNDER in home games following a win by 10 points or more this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|04-09-23||Pelicans +4 v. Wolves||Top||108-113||Loss||-110||6 h 0 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +4
The Pelicans came up clutch last year late in the season and in the play-in before giving the Suns a run for their money. That experience is paying off this year as the Pelicans are 9-2 SU & 8-2- ATS in their last 11 games overall and coming up clutch again.
Now the Pelicans have a lot to play for here to try and either move up in the play-in and possibly get a Top 5 seed if everything breaks their way, or at the very least lock in a Top 8 spot with a win over the Timberwolves here. I trust them much more than the Timberwolves, who are still trying to form some chemistry with all the new pieces.
Minnesota will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here after a 151-131 shootout win in San Antonio last night. That puts them at a big disadvantage, and I love the value we are getting on the Pelicans as underdogs here after having yesterday off and with all that big game experience gained over the past couple seasons.
The Pelicans are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games when playing on one days' rest. The Timberwolves are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Minnesota. Bet the Pelicans Sunday.