15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Indiana Pacers -12

The Brooklyn Nets are just 4-9 SU & 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall and have fallen out of the playoff race.  They are coming off a 116-104 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Pacers tonight.

The Pacers have a lot to play for right now and will not be taking the Nets lightly as a result.  They sit in 6th place in the East but just 0.5 games ahead of the Heat for the first play-in spot.  They don't want to have to go into the play-in.

The Pacers are 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all seven wins coming by double-digits.  They are fresh and ready to go after having the last two days off since blasting the Lakers by 19 at home.  These rest and motivational advantages are the reasons I'm willing to lay this big of a number with the Pacers tonight.

Brooklyn is 1-10 ATS in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.  Indiana is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  The Pacers are 19-4 ATS against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  They beat the Nets 121-100 in their lone meeting this season on March 16th.  It will be more of the same tonight.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Pistons UNDER 216

Both the Memphis Grizzlies and Detroit Pistons are struggling offensively right now due to injuries.  The Grizzlies scored 88 points last time out against the Magic and are without eight players right now including Desmond Bane.

The Pistons have scored 103 or fewer points in nine consecutive games now while going 9-2 UNDER in their last 11 games overall.  They are without Thompson, Grimes, Fontecchio, Steward, Gibson and Umude with both Cunningham and Sasser questionable as well.

Detroit is 7-0 UNDER as a favorite this season.  Memphis is 16-6 UNDER in its last 22 road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Pistons are 9-0 UNDER in home games against poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic -15.5

The Orlando Magic crush bad teams like the Portland Trail Blazers.  They have gone 24-7 ATS as favorites this season including 9-1 ATS against a bad team that wins 25-40% of their games this season.  They are also 24-5 ATS against teams with a losing record this season.

The Magic have a lot to play for right now trying to fend off the Miami Heat for the Southeast Division Title.  They lead the Heat by two games for the title, meaning they are only two games ahead of the final play-in team as well.  They just crushed the Grizzlies by 30 last game at home, and I expect a similar result against the hapless Blazers tonight.

The Blazers are 0-9 SU in their last nine games overall with six losses by 12 points or more.  They have lost their last three games by 18 at Houston, by 14 at Atlanta and by 60 at Miami.  They have a G League lineup right now playing without their three best players in Malcolm Brogdon, Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons.  They are just ready for this season to be over.

Orlando is 8-0 ATS after failing to cover three of its last four ATS this season.  Portland is 0-10 ATS after scoring 95 points or less this season.  Bet the Magic Monday.

15* Jazz/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 223

The Sacramento Kings are a much better defensive team than they get credit for.  The Kings are 10-1 UNDER in their last 11 games overall and would be 11-0 if they hadn't gone to OT against Memphis.  They have gone for 228 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in 11 consecutive games now.  

They are without two of their best shooters in Kevin Heurter and Trey Lyles, and both of those guys are defensive liabilities, which explains this UNDER run.  Making matters worse is that they just lost Malik Monk for 4-6 weeks.  He is the NBA 6th Man of the Year and provides almost all their scoring off the bench.  The Kings are going to have to rely even more on defense moving forward without these guys.

The Jazz are a dead nuts UNDER team in their current state as well.  They are without their two best players in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson, plus John Collins is questionable.  The Jazz have been held to 111 points or fewer in seven of their last eight games overall while going 6-2 UNDER during this stretch.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavs/Rockets UNDER 231

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games overall with 210, 228, 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in eight of those nine games.  Dallas is without one of its best shooters in Josh Green right now.  This total is too high for a game involving the Mavericks with the way they are playing right now.

The Houston Rockets are fighting for a playoff spot as they trail the Warriors by just 1.5 games for the final play-in spot.  They have gone for 202 combined points with the Blazers, 224 combined points with the Thunder at the end of regulation, and 201 combined points with the Jazz in their last three games overall.  They are really picking it up on the defensive end of late.

Dallas is 10-0 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NC State/Duke Elite 8 No-Brainer on NC State +6.5

What more does NC State have to do to get some respect?  The Wolfpack are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their two non-covers both coming by 0.5 points.  They beat UNC and Duke in the ACC Tournament, and they beat Marquette outright as 7.5-point dogs in the Sweet 16.

Now the Wolfpack come back as 6.5-point dogs to a Duke team that they just beat in the ACC Tournament.  They have had a big change in philosophy and have the perfect lineup right now.  The Wolfpack feel like they can't lose at this point and a brimming with confidence.

Duke got the lucky break of Houston's best player in Jamal Shead going out with an ankle injury in the 1H when the Cougars were dominating.  It changed the entire game and Duke still had to sneak out a 54-51 victory without Shead.  They won't be so fortunate against NC State this time around.

NC State played the early game against Marquette on Friday while Duke played the late game against Houston.  I don't think that extra rest and preparation for the Wolfpack is being factored into this line enough.  It almost never is in these tournament scenarios, and it's one of the real edges we have on the books.  

Duke was in a war late with Houston Friday night and now has to come back and play a 5:05 EST start time on Sunday.  The Blue Devils lack depth as it is and won't have much left in the tank for NC State.  The Wolfpack controlled their game with Marquette from start to finish and didn't have to exert a ton of effort as a result.  They will actually be the fresher, more prepared team for this one.

NC State is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games as a neutral court underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Wolfpack are 7-1 ATS as neutral court dogs or PK this season.  NC State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Bet NC State Sunday.

15* Tennessee/Purdue Elite 8 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 148

Tennessee and Purdue played in the Maui Invitational.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  These teams know each other, and I expect this to be another defensive battle similar to what it was in the Maui Invitational.

Purdue beat Tennessee 71-67 for 138 combined points back in November.  This despite these teams combining for 50 made free throws on 78 attempts.  I have to think the refs will let them play more here with a trip to the Final 4 on the line and it won't be another free throw fest.

These are two of the best defensive teams in the country.  Tennessee ranks 3rd in adjusted defensive while Purdue ranks 19th.  Purdue shot 57.1% against Gonzaga who also shot 49.2% last game and that game still stayed UNDER the total with 148 combined points.  Neither team will exceed 50% shooting in this one.

Tennessee is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games after committing five or fewer turnovers last game.  Purdue is 7-0 UNDER in road/neutral games after three straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers.  There won't be many turnovers in this game, which means there won't be many fast break opportunities.  Bet the UNDER in this Elite 8 game Sunday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Clemson +3.5

The Clemson Tigers are capable of beating anyone in the country.  They have road wins over Alabama and North Carolina this season and should have beaten Duke in a 1-point loss with a weak foul call by the refs just before the buzzer handed the Blue Devils the win.

The Tigers are showing what they are capable of in the NCAA Tournament.  New Mexico was a popular pick to make a run, and the Tigers mopped the floor with the Lobos in a 77-56 win as 2-point dogs.  They controlled the game basically the entire way against Baylor in a 72-64 win as 4.5-point dogs.  And they once again controlled the game the entire way in a 77-72 win over Arizona as 7-point dogs.

I think Clemson's versatility offensively will give Alabama trouble as well.  Both big men PJ Hall (18.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and Ian Schieffelin (9.9 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 48.9% 3-pointers) can shoot it from outside, Chase Hunter (12.9 PPG) has been one of the best guards in the tournament, and Joseph Girard (15.0 PPG) is a 41% 3-pointer shooter.

As stated before, Clemson already won on the road at Alabama 85-77 as 8.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season on November 28th.  Hall had 21 points and 8 rebounds, Girard 16 points, Hunter 15 points and Schieffelin 9 points and 14 rebounds.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.

The Tigers have the rest advantage after playing the first game on Thursday night and had the luxury of resting and scouting Alabama in the late game.  I always think that's a bigger advantage than what gets factored in as the team that finished first and plays two days later gets more rest and preparation.  

Plus, Alabama just lost sharpshooter Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (9.0 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers) to a head injury, and now Nick Pringle (6.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG) suffered a leg injury against UNC and was noticeably limping.  The Crimson Tide's lack of depth will catch up to them here.  They are running on fumes after their comeback win over North Carolina from double-digits down in the 2H, especially with the crazy pace they play with.

Clemson is 9-1 ATS as an underdog this season.  Alabama is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games off a win by 6 points or less.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Hawks UNDER 223.5

The Milwaukee Bucks would be 3-0 UNDER in their last three games if not going to double-OT against the Lakers.  They combined with the Thunder for 211 points, combined with the Lakers for 202 points at the end of regulation, and combined with the Pelicans for 207 points in their last three games.

Now the Bucks will be without Damian Lillard tonight, making them even more of a dead nuts UNDER team.  But they get Patrick Beverly back from injury, and he is one of their defensive leaders and having him will be huge to try and slow down Dejounte Murray of the Hawks.

Murray's usage rate for the Hawks has gone through the roof since losing Trae Young.  They have 6 players out and Jalen Johnson is questionable.  The Hawks have had to rely a lot more on defense of late to be competitive.

Milwaukee is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine games against a team with a losing record.  The Bucks are 18-4 UNDER in their last 22 games against teams that attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Elite 8 Total DOMINATOR on Illinois/UConn UNDER 155.5

UConn is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Huskies rank 319th in adjusted tempo and 6th in adjusted defense.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Huskies last eight games overall with 143 or fewer combined points in seven of those eight games.

Illinois is a dead nuts OVER team, but the Fighting Illini won't be able to get out in transition against UConn.  Iowa State laid the blueprint holding the Fighting Illini in check in a 72-69 loss for 141 combined points in the Sweet 16.  It will be more of the same against UConn here.

UConn is 11-1 UNDER after scoring 40 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +6.5

The Boston Celtics have nothing to play for for the rest of the regular season.  They are locked in to the No. 1 seed in the East, so they are going to be lacking motivation the rest of the way.  That gives us a great opportunity to fade them because they are going to continue to be priced as the best team in the league.

The Celtics probably are the best team in the league when healthy and motivated, but neither is the case right now.  That explains how they lost two consecutive games outright to the Hawks as 16.5-point favorites and 10.5-point favorites in their last two games coming in.  Now they are once again laying too many points as 6.5-point favorites at New Orleans.

The Pelicans are 10-3 SU & 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are motivated right now to avoid the play-in round as they are currently the 5th seed only one game back of the Clippers for the 4th seed, but also only 2.5 games ahead of the Suns for the 7th seed and the play-in.  They need wins right now while the Celtics do not.

New Orleans is a perfect 8-0 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season and winning by 18.1 points per game.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Kings UNDER 230.5

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 7-1 UNDER in their last eight games overall with 228, 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in seven of those eight games.  Dallas is without one of its best shooters in Josh Green right now.  This total is too high for a game involving the Mavericks with the way they are playing right now.

The Sacramento Kings are a much better defensive team than they get credit for.  The Kings are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 games overall and would be 10-0 if they hadn't gone to OT against Memphis.  They have gone for 228 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in 10 consecutive games now.  They are without two of their best shooters in Kevin Heurter and Trey Lyles, and both of those guys are defensive liabilities, which explains this UNDER run.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The Mavericks and Kings just played each other on Tuesday with Dallas winning 132-96 for 228 combined points.  Dallas shot 55.4% from the field including 22-of-39 (56.4%) from 3-point range and it still stayed UNDER the total.  It's safe to say the Mavericks won't shoot that well again in the rematch.

Dallas is 9-0 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Duke/Houston Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Houston -3.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Houston Cougars after needing OT to beat Texas A&M.  That's just a team they do not match up great against as they only beat the Aggies by 4 on a neutral earlier this season.  It's also a very underrated Texas A&M team that was playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch and knocked off several other SEC powerhouses this season.

Keep in mind Houston led by double-digits in the final two minutes before a crazy comeback by the Aggies as well.  I think getting battle-tested in that game will benefit the Cougars moving forward.  Four starters fouled out, and a walk on had to ice the game from the FT line in OT.  That kind of win will only make them stronger moving forward when they get in this position again.

This will essentially be a home game for Houston being played in Dallas, TX, and Houston crushed everyone at home this season going 17-0 with nobody staying within 8 points or them.  I don't think that home-court advantage is being factored into this line enough.  They did not get the benefit of the whistle against Texas A&M, but they will likely get that benefit here with a rowdy Cougar crowd.

But this is more of a fade of Duke than anything.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Blue Devils after an easy route to the Sweet 16 blowing out both Vermont and James Madison.  This is a very soft Duke team, and that will get exposed against one of the most physical teams in the country in Houston.  I also don't expect the Blue Devils to shoot as well as they have thus far as McCain opened the James Madison game 6-of-6 from 3.

Now the Blue Devils must go up against the Cougars, who rank 2nd in adjusted defense behind only Iowa State.  The Blue Devils were already without Caleb Foster (7.7 PPG) heading into the NCAA Tournament, and now Jeremy Roach (14.3 PPG, 44.2% 3-pointers) suffered a finger injury against James Madison that leaves him questionable and far from 100% if he plays.  We are getting the Cougars at a discount in the Sweet 16 and we'll take advantage.  Bet Houston Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -7

The Houston Rockets have won 10 consecutive games and have gone 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Six of their last seven wins have come by double-digits, so they aren't even letting teams hang around.  Don't look now but the Rockets sit just one game behind the Warriors for the final play-in spot in the West.  They have been motivated to get that spot and are playing like it.

The Rockets should be laying more than 7 points to the hapless Utah Jazz.  The Jazz are 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, and 3-18 SU & 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games overall dating back further.  The problem for the Jazz is that they have been without their top two scorers in Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen for the majority of their last 21 games.  Clarkson remains out, and Markkanen is questionable.  They lost outright at home to the lowly Spurs even with Markkanen in the lineup last time out.

The Rockets beat the Jazz 147-119 as 11-point home favorites on March 23rd less than a week ago.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.  Houston is 13-1 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Rockets are 13-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +7

The Minnesota Timberwolves continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as 7-point underdogs to the Denver Nuggets tonight.  The Timberwolves are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 points at home to the Nuggets.

But that was a terrible spot for the Timberwolves playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after winning a close game in Utah the previous night.  They were out of gas and still put up a valiant effort against a Nuggets team that came into that game with a day off prior.  The Nuggets had a huge rest advantage.

Now the Timberwolves are fresh playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and will be highly motivated for a win over the Nuggets, who they trail by 0.5 games for 1st place in the West.  The Nuggets were upset as identical 7-point home favorites against the Suns last time out and haven't had consecutive days off since March 3-4.  Jamal Murray is questionable to play tonight after missing the last three games, and Nikola Jokic is battling through a back injury.

Minnesota is a perfect 9-0 ATS when revenging a home loss this season.  I love this Timberwolves team because they rank 1st in defensive rating and bring it on that end every night.  They also clearly have a ton of resiliency.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +12.5

The Charlotte Hornets showed some life in a 118-111 upset win as 10-point home dogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers last time out.  This is a pretty rested team as the Hornets will be playing just their 4th game in 10 days tonight.  They will get up for the Golden State Warriors tonight and give them a run for their money.

The Warriors are getting too much respect off two consecutive road wins at Miami and Orlando.  The Warriors are a tired team right now playing their 4th consecutive road game in 6 days.  Jonathan Kuminga is questionable to play tonight, and I question how much the Warriors have left in the tank for the Hornets in this one.

The Hornets have played a road-heavy schedule of late with 13 of their last 18 games on the highway.  They have been much more competitive at home.  In fact, the Hornets haven't lost any of their last 10 home games by more than 12 points.  That makes for a perfect 10-0 system backing Charlotte pertaining to this 12.5-point spread.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina -4

The North Carolina Tar Heels are the most disrespected No. 1 seed in the tournament.  Hubert Davis is also one of the most disrespected head coaches in the country as he is now 8-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament at North Carolina.  The Tar Heels are 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall with a pair of wins over Duke both home and away this season.  They just crushed Michigan State 85-69 as 4-point favorites in the Round of 32.  Now they are only 4-point favorites against Alabama in the Sweet 16.

The Tar Heels have no weaknesses.  They have two stud guards in RJ Davis (21.3 PPG, 41.1% 3-pointers) and Elliot Cadeau (7.3 PPG, 4.1 APG) who can both get to the rim whenever they want.  They have two stud big men in Armando Bacot (14.4 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 1.5 BPG) and Harrison Ingram (12.2 PPG, 8.8 RPG) and a sharp shooter in Cormac Ryan (11.3 PPG).

But as much as I love North Carolina, this is more of a fade of Alabama than anything.  The Crimson Tide had an easy path to get to the Sweet 16 beating College of Charleston 109-96 and Grand Canyon 72-61.  Both wins come with asterisks because both of those opponents shot very poorly, and Grand Canyon tried to beat them with 1-on-1 ball.

Charleston started the game 1-of-17 from 3-point range, while Grand Canyon shot 2-of-20 from 3 for the game.  The Antelopes also shot just 23-of-37 (62.2%) from the FT line.  The Crimson Tide won't be able to benefit from those poor shooting numbers against a great shooting team in UNC.  This is still the worst defensive team left in the tournament and UNC will expose those holes.  

Plus, Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (9.0 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers) has been battling concussion issues all season and just suffered another one that forced him from the Grand Canyon game.  He is a great shooter and their best perimeter defender.  I have a hard time believing he will be anywhere near 100% for this one if he plays, and if he does there is a high likelihood he gets knocked out again.  I like UNC to roll either way.  Bet North Carolina Thursday.

15* SDSU/UConn Sweet 16 ANNIHILATOR on UConn -11

The UConn Huskies are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS over the past two NCAA Tournament and covering by an average of 13 points per game.  All eight wins have come by 13 points or more, so I'm not worried about laying this 11-point spread against the San Diego State Aztecs in the Sweet 16.

This was a terrible matchup for SDSU in the Championship Game last year and that fact remains this year.  UConn beat SDSU 76-59 to capture the title last year as 7-point favorites.  No question the Aztecs want revenge, but they have a lot working against them heading into this one.

For starters, this is a tough travel spot for the Aztecs, who have to travel clear across country to Boston to face what is going to be a home-heavy crowd for the Huskies.  It's just a little over an hour from campus.  This is one of the earliest games of the Sweet 16 with tip set for 7:40 EST Thursday night.  The Aztecs didn't get home until early Monday morning after facing Yale in Spokane Sunday night.  They will have hardly any time to prepare for UConn with all this travel.

Teams that have had success against UConn this season have lit it up from 3 like Creighton did in Omaha.  The Huskies have gone 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS since that humbling defeat, and Bobby Hurley is keeping that chip on their shoulder saying that the NCAA Tournament committee blatantly gave them they most difficult region, which is true.

San Diego State runs its offense through Jaedon LeDee who is a monster inside.  However, he lacks height and will struggle to score against UConn's bigs inside.  The Huskies rank 3rd in effective FG percentage defense and 4th in 2-point percentage allowed.  They just don't allow anything at the rim.  San Diego State is going to have to try to win this game from the 3-point line, where they are terrible ranking 283rd in the country in 3-point percentage at 31.8% on the season.  Terrible matchup for them and terrible travel spot.  Bet UConn Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Rockets +7

The Houston Rockets have won nine consecutive games and have gone 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Each of their last six wins have come by double-digits, so they aren't even letting teams hang around.  Don't look now but the Rockets sit just one game behind the Warriors for the final play-in spot in the West.  They have been motivated to get that spot and are playing like it.

The Rockets should not be catching 7 points tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are in a terrible spot.  The Thunder will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 119-112 win at New Orleans last night.  All five starters played at least 30 minutes for the Thunder last night, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Rockets tonight.

Houston is 12-1 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Rockets are 7-0 ATS vs. teams that force 15 or more turnovers per game.  The Rockets also get Jabari Smith (13.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG) back from a one-game suspension tonight.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +4.5

This is a terrible spot for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  They are coming off a shocking upset win at 9.5-point road dogs at Milwaukee last night in double-OT.  Davis played 52 minutes, Russell 50 and Reaves 48 last night.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Memphis Grizzlies tonight, and don't be surprised if they rest some guys.

I like the Grizzlies when they have both Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane healthy, which is the case for tonight.  The Grizzlies are also the kind of team that continues to show up every night despite their current standing.  They would love nothing more than to upset the Lakers, who are in a huge letdown spot off the win over the Bucks.

The Lakers are 0-7 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season.  Los Angeles is 1-11 ATS off a road win this season.  This will be just the 2nd game in 5 days for Memphis tonight so they will be the much fresher team.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday.

15* Clippers/76ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -5.5

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  They are coming off two straight upset home losses to the 76ers and Pacers.  Now they get their shot at quick revenge against the 76ers on the road this time around.  They are fully healthy and primed for a big effort.  Ty Lue called out his team for being soft, and I expect the Clippers to respond with a blowout win tonight.

The 76ers are in a tough spot here returning home from a 4-game road trip after losing by 12 at Sacramento on the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the Clippers.  They will be playing their 15th game in 27 days and haven't had consecutive days off since February.  They remain without Embiid and Melton and now Kelly Oubre Jr. is questionable tonight.  They just don't have much talent outside Tyrese Maxey right now.

The Clippers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games after failing to cover four of their last five games.  Los Angeles is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games off two consecutive losses as a home favorite.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

15* UNLV/Seton Hall NIT ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 141

Two dead nuts UNDER teams square off tonight when the UNLV Rebels visit the Seton Hall Pirates in the NIT Quarterfinals.  Defensive intensity will be high as the winner gets a trip to the NIT Final 4 in Indianapolis.

UNLV ranks 305th in adjusted tempo and 86th in adjusted defense this season.  I think the fact that UNLV went over the total in their first two NIT games has inflated this total.  But they shot an unsustainable 60.8% against Princeton and 49.2% against Boston College.  Their opponents were also fouling at the end in wins by 7 over Princeton and by 9 over BC.

Seton Hall ranks 259th in adjusted tempo and 45th in adjusted defense.  They combined for 136 points with St. Joe's at the end of regulation prior to going to OT in their NIT opener.  Another low-scoring game occurred in a 72-58 win over North Texas for just 130 combined points last time out.  Opponents are only shooting 39.9% against Seton Hall at home this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Mavs/Kings TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 233.5

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 6-1 UNDER in their last seven games overall with 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in six of those seven games.  Dallas is without one of its best shooters in Josh Green right now.  This total is too high for a game involving the Mavericks with the way they are playing right now.

The Sacramento Kings are a much better defensive team than they get credit for.  The Kings are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games overall and would be 9-0 if they hadn't gone to OT against Memphis.  They have gone for 227 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in nine consecutive games now.  They are without two of their best shooters in Kevin Heurter and Trey Lyles, and both of those guys are defensive liabilities, which explains this UNDER run.

Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and will be on tired legs so I don't expect them to be pushing the tempo.  These are also the 6th and 7th place teams in the West right now, so defensive intensity will be high as both are trying to avoid the play-in round.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana State ML -145

The Indiana State Sycamores are clearly out to prove a point that they belonged in the NCAA Tournament.  They haven't hung their heads, and they have all hands on deck for the NIT.  They have won and covered each of their first two games beating SMU 101-92 as 7.5-point favorites and Minnesota 76-64 as 7-point favorites.

Now on the brink of getting to go to the NIT Final 4, the Sycamores will be 'all in' tonight to get this win.  The NIT Final 4 is special to them because it will be played in Indianapolis in their home state of Indiana, so they will have a massive following if they get there.  I think they get the job done here but I'm taking them on the Money Line instead of laying the -2.5 current spread.

Cincinnati squeaked by San Francisco 73-72 in their NIT opener before blasting Bradley 74-57.  I think that result over a fellow Missouri Valley team is giving the Bearcats more respect than they deserve.  Indiana State also won both of its meeting with Bradley this season.  Cincinnati also got to play at home but will now have to travel to face Indiana State.

The Sycamores are 15-1 SU & 11-3-2 ATS at home this season.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  Cincinnati went just 4-7 SU in true road games this season.  Indiana State is 9-1 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet Indiana State on the Money Line Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Dallas Mavericks -8.5

The Dallas Mavericks are highly motivated for wins right now and playing like it.  They sit in 8th place in the West and currently in the play-in round, but just 0.5 games behind the Phoenix Suns for 6th place.  They have a lot to play for right now and will not be taking the Utah Jazz lightly.

I love the spot for the Mavericks as they have had the last three days off and will be fresh and ready to go.  They beat the Jazz 113-97 as 13.5-point home favorites four days ago to improve to 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Their lone loss came by 7 at OKC as 10.5-point dogs without both Doncic and Irving.  The Mavericks are basically fully healthy right now.

The Jazz are an absolute mess right now.  They are 3-16 SU & 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They have lost five consecutive games coming in all by double-digits, and each of their last seven losses have come by 10 points or more.  They have been playing without their top two scorers in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson for much of this stretch and will likely rest both again tonight.  Kris Dunn has been suspended for this game as well.

Dallas is 15-4 ATS as a road favorite this season.  The Mavericks are 10-2 ATS off a win by 15 points or more this season.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavs/Jazz UNDER 237.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between the Jazz and Mavericks in the last five days.  Dallas won 113-97 for just 210 combined points in that first meeting, and it will be another defensive battle in the rematch that stays well below 237.5 combined points.

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 5-1 UNDER in their last six games overall with 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in five of those six games.  This total is too high for a game involving the Mavericks with the way theya re playing right now.

The Jazz have been playing without their top two scorers in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson.  They are struggling on offense to say the least scoring 107 or fewer points in four of their last six games.  This total is too high for a game involving the Jazz right now in their current state.

Utah and Dallas have combined for 236 or fewer points in 10 of their last 11 meetings.  That makes for a 10-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this inflated 237.5-point total.  Utah is 9-1 UNDER off a blowout road loss by 20 points or more this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -12

The Houston Rockets have won eight consecutive games and have gone 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Each of their last five wins have come by double-digits, so they aren't even letting teams hang around.  The short-handed Portland Trail Blazers won't be hanging around tonight, either.

Don't look now but the Rockets sit just one game behind the Warriors for the final play-in spot in the West.  They have been motivated to get that spot and are playing like it.  That's why I know they aren't going to take the Blazers lightly tonight, which is key when laying these big numbers.

The Blazers have lost six consecutive games coming in.  They are without Malcolm Brogdon and Jerami Grant tonight, with Anfernee Simons, DeAndre Ayton and Matisse Thybulle questionable to play as well.  I wouldn't be surprised if all of them sit given Portland's current standing.

Houston is 11-1 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Rockets are 25-11 SU & 26-10 ATS in all home games this season.  Bet the Rockets Monday.

20* Texas A&M/Houston TNT No-Brainer on Texas A&M +10.5

Texas A&M is playing its best basketball of the season here down the stretch just to get into the NCAA Tournament.  The Aggies are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with wins over fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Mississippi State, Kentucky and Nebraska.  They ran out of gas in their 5-point loss to Florida in their 3rd game in 3 days in the SEC Tournament.

No underdog in this NCAA Tournament has a higher ceiling than Texas A&M.  The Aggies have wins over Iowa State, Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky this season.  They even took Houston to the wire already once in non-conference play earlier this season, losing 70-66 as 7-point dogs on a neutral.  Houston even shot 11-of-27 (40.7%) from 3 in that game while the Aggies only shot 38.2% as a team, yet it was only a 4-point margin.  

I think the Aggies can stay within 10.5-points in the rematch.  Asking the Cougars to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  They just faced one of the worst teams in the tournament in Longwood and won easily.  They they lost by 28 to Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game, and injuries and lack of depth is a problem for them.  

Texas A&M is elite defensively and will force Houston into some scoring droughts that they are known for.  The Aggies are the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the country and can hang with the Cougars on the boards and in the physicality department.  The Aggies also potentially have the best player on the court in Wade Taylor IV, who scored 25 points in the 98-83 win over Nebraska.  But he isn't their only weapon as both Obaseki (22) and Radford (20) topped 20 as well.

Buzz Williams is 21-7 ATS in March games as the coach of Texas A&M.  Houston is 1-7 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Bet Texas A&M Sunday.

15* Northwestern/UConn TruTV ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 136

Games at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn have been very low-scoring in tournament season.  That's where the Atlantic 10 Tournament was played and that was a very low-scoring tournament with 132 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in nine of 12 games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the four games thus far at the Barclays Center in the NCAA Tournament with 111, 116, 131, and 143 combined points at the end of regulation.

Now we have a matchup of two dead nuts UNDER teams in UConn and Northwestern that both play at a snail's pace and are both elite defensively.  UConn ranks 324th in adjusted tempo and 11th in adjusted defense, while Northwestern ranks 340th in adjusted tempo and 54th in adjusted defense.

While UConn will get its points, I don't think the Huskies have faced many defenses as good as Northwestern.  And I know the Huskies will shut down the Wildcats, who are missing two key players to injury.  The Wildcats were tied 58-58 at the end of regulation with FAU last game for 116 combined points.  That's a hell of a job holding that high-powered FAU offense to just 58 points in 40 minutes.  And I don't think Northwestern gets to 60 in this one.

UConn is 14-5 UNDER in its last 19 March games.  The Huskies are 13-6 UNDER against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games this season.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Northwestern's last 10 games overall with 131 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in six of those 10 games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Thunder/Bucks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on OVER 232.5

Two elite offensive teams that like to get up and down quickly square off tonight when the Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bucks rank 6th in pace this season while the Thunder rank 7th.  The Thunder rank 3rd in offensive rating while the Bucks rank 5th.

The key here is that both teams are fully healthy right now.  The Bucks have scored at least 114 points in six of their last seven games overall while going 5-1-1 OVER in those seven games.  The Thunder have scored at least 118 points in eight of their last 11 games.  The Thunder average 120.7 points per game while the Bucks average 120.6 points per game.

The Bucks beat the Thunder 136-132 (OT) in their first meeting in a game that was tied 119-119 at the end of regulation for 238 combined points.  OKC is 7-0 OVER vs. teams that make 14 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Grand Canyon/Alabama TBS No-Brainer on OVER 168.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 7th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in adjusted offense while having the worst defense of the Nate Oats era.  Alabama is 25-8 OVER in all games this season including 13-3 OVER in road games.

The OVER is 11-1 in Alabama's last 12 games overall with 175 or more combined points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.  The Crimson Tide have scored at least 87 points in nine of their last 10 games overall while allowing 88 or more points in eight of their last 10 games.  They are coming off a 109-96 win over Charleston to easily cash the OVER in a game that saw 205 combined points.

I was impressed with how easily Grand Canyon scored on St. Mary's last round.  The Gaels are one of the best defenses in the country.  The Antelopes put up 75 points on them.  They rank 56th in adjusted offense and also rank in the top third of the country in terms of tempo, ranking 116th.  They won't mind getting up and down with Alabama in this one.

Grand Canyon is 42-24 OVER in its last 66 games.  Alabama is 9-1 OVER after allowing 90 points or more this season.  The Antelopes are 27-12 OVER in their last 39 games against a team with a winning record.  Grand Canyon is 15-3 OVER in its last 18 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  Alabama is 20-5 OVER against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on James Madison/Duke UNDER 148.5

Games at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn have been very low-scoring in tournament season.  That's where the Atlantic 10 Tournament was played and that was a very low-scoring tournament with 132 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in nine of 12 games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the four games thus far at the Barclays Center in the NCAA Tournament with 111, 116, 131, and 143 combined points at the end of regulation.

Duke is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Blue Devils rank 236th in adjusted tempo and 22nd in adjusted defense.  They have held nine of their last 12 opponents to below 70 points.  They just beat Vermont 64-47 for 111 combined points.

James Madison is also a better defensive team than they get credit for.  The Dukes rank 55th in adjusted defense.  They just held a very good Wisconsin offense to 61 points last game in their 72-61 win that saw just 133 combined points.

Duke is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 non-conference road games.  The Blue Devils are 12-2 UNDER in their last 14 neutral court games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* James Madison/Duke CBS No-Brainer on James Madison +7.5

James Madison is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  The Dukes are 32-3 this season with their three losses coming to Appalachian State (twice) and Southern Miss.  Keep in mind Appalachian State beat Auburn earlier this season.  The upset Michigan State on the road in non-conference, and they just upset Wisconsin 72-61 as 5.5-point dogs last round to prove they belong.  They dominated that game for all 40 minutes and were never in jeopardy of losing.

Duke had a much easier opponent in the opener with a 64-47 win over a bad Vermont team as 12.5-point favorites.  The Blue Devils lost to UNC twice this season, lost at Wake Forest and lost to NC State in the ACC Tournament.  I think the ACC is just way down this season, so it's going to be hard to trust any ACC team outside North Carolina moving forward.  The Blue Devils are on serious upset alert here.

James Madison is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 non-conference games.  The Dukes are 8-2 ATS against a team with a winning record this season.  James Madison is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better.  Bet James Madison Sunday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans -12

The New Orleans Pelicans are rolling right now going 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall and coming off a 23-point road win at Miami.  Six of those eight wins have come by 13 points or more.  You can chalk up another today against the hapless Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons are just going through the motions right now going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Four of the five losses have come by 13 points or more, including their last three by 27 at home to Boston, by 19 at home to Indiana and by 25 at Boston.

Not only are the Pistons going through the motions right now, but injuries are really starting to pile up as well.  They are without Ausar Thompson, Quentin Grimes, Simone Fontechio, Isaiah Stewart and Stanley Umude.  Their biggest bright spot this season has been double-double machine Jalen Duren, and now he is questionable with a back injury.

The Pelicans are 31-15 ATS in their last 46 games as road favorites of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Pistons are 14-30 ATS in their last 44 non-conference home games.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.

20* Oregon/Creighton TBS Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon +5.5

The Oregon Ducks are the one NCAA Tournament team that stole a bid by winning their conference tournament that I trust to make a deep run.  The Ducks have won five consecutive games including wins over Arizona, Colorado and South Carolina in their last three.  They have all the momentum right now and are playing their best basketball of the season.

A big reason I trust the Ducks is head coach Dana Altman, who is a proven winner in the NCAA Tournament.  Altman is 17-5 ATS in NCAA Tournament games as the coach of Oregon, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when listed as a 9 seed or higher.  The Ducks may also have the two best players ont he floor in C N'Faly Dante (16.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 1.9 BPG) and G Jermaine Couisnard (16.1 PPG), who had 40 points against South Carolina last game.  Both of these guys have taken their games to the next level down the stretch.

Creighton was in a dog fight with lowly Akron until late in the 2H last game.  They won 77-60 despite shooting 56.5% from the field and Akron only shooting 37.9%.  The Zips shot 6-of-27 (22%) from 3 as well, which is uncharacteristic for them, while the Bluejays shot 10-of-17 (59%) from 3.  They won't have those kinds of shooting numbers in their favor here when they take a big step up in class against surging Ducks.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Wizards UNDER 232

The Toronto Raptors are without four of their top five scorers in Scottie Barnes (19.9 PPG), RJ Barrett (19.5 PPG), Immanuel Quickley (16.4 PPG) and Jacob Poeltl (11.1 PPG) tonight.  Gary Trent Jr. (12.8 PPG) is questionable as well. It's no wonder the Raptors are struggling to score without all these guys.  They have been held to 119 points or fewer in 11 consecutive games and an average of 105.4 points per game during this stretch.  The Raptors rank dead last (30th) in offensive rating in their last 11 games and were just held to 96 points by the Magic, 89 points by the Kings and 103 by the Thunder in their last three games.

The Washington Wizards are without PG Tyus Jones (12.0 PPG, 7.3 APG) and Bilal Coulibaly (8.4 PPG) and could be without Jordan Poole (16.6 PPG), who is questionable.  They are hampered offensively right now and it has shown as they have scored 119 or fewer points in 11 consecutive games.  The Wizards have averaged just 106.8 points per game in their last six games while ranking 24th in offensive rating during this stretch.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Raptors last five games overall with 226 or fewer combined points in all five games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Orlando Magic -2.5

The Orlando Magic are the best covering team in the NBA and continue to get disrespected from oddsmakers.  The Magic are 42-28 SU & 45-23-2 ATS this season, including 25-8 SU & 24-9 ATS at home.  They have gone 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall with five striaght wins and covers all by 8 points or more.

The Sacramento Kings are coming off a 109-102 road loss to the short-handed Washington Wizards.  They also needed OT to beat Memphis at home and were upset by New York at home during a 1-3 ATS stretch in their last four.  They are getting too much respect here as only 2.5-point road dogs to the Magic with the way they are playing right now.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

20* Oakland/NC State TBS No-Brainer on Oakland +6.5

NC State just won five games in five days to win the ACC Tournament.  Four of the five games were decided by single-digits, so it took everything they had and then some.  I question how much the Wolfpack have left in the tank for the NCAA Tournament.

They got through Texas Tech on pure adrenaline, plus the fact that the Red Raiders play zero defense.  This is the game I think all these games will take their toll as the Wolfpack will now be playing their 2nd game in 3 days.  They are going to have to think because Oakland runs a great zone defense, and it's a very tough scheme to prepare for in one day.  I don't think NC State will be ready for it.

I like that the Golden Grizzlies acted like they expected to beat Kentucky after the game.  They feel like they belong, and I expect them to pull the outright upset here Saturday over the Wolfpack to advance to the Sweet 16.  They will have the best player on the floor in F Trey Townsend (16.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG), and he is surrounded by two great shooters in Blake Lampman (12.8 PPG, 36.5% 3-pointers) and Jack Gohike (12.8 PPG, 37.8% 3-pointers), who hit 10 3's himself to lead the upset of Kentucky.

The win over Kentucky was no fluke as Oakland went 2-3 SU & 5-0 ATS against Ohio State, Illinois, Drake, Xavier and Kentucky this season taking all five of those teams to the wire despite playing all five on the road.  The Golden Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Bet Oakland Saturday.

15* Washington State/Iowa State TNT ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -6.5

The Iowa State Cyclones have won the Big 12 Tournament in 5 of the last 11 years.  A big reason they have so much success in the Big 12 Tournament is because it is known as 'Hilton South' with the huge following they get from fans with only a 3.5-hour drive to Kansas City.  Well, now they are playing in Omaha, which is only a 2-hour drive from their campus.  They have a massive home-court advantage once again for the first two rounds of this tournament.

The Cyclones are playing their best basketball of the season in these tournaments.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS since the start of the Big 12 Tournament, beating Kansas State by 19 as 8-point favorites, Baylor by 14 as 2-point favorites and Houston by 28 as 5-point dogs.  They opened with a 17-point win over South Dakota State on Thursday as 15-point favorites.  They were up 25 in the final four minutes before calling off the dogs, so that 17-point win wasn't as indicative of how dominant the win was.  They won't be calling off the dogs against Washington State.

Washington State thrives when they play a soft team like Drake and Arizona that aren't very physical.  That's why they are able to upset Arizona twice and get by Drake last game with an 8-point comeback in the final seven minutes.  They won't have that same luxury against Iowa State, which will match and exceed their physicality.  The Cyclones rank 2nd in the entire country in adjusted defense, and they are a much better offensive team than the Cougars, who lack shooting.  They won't be able to keep up offensively in this one.

Iowa State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games this season.  The Cyclones are a combined 25-0 SU in home games, Big 12 Tournament games and NCAA Tournament games that have been played close to home this season.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

25* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina -3.5

This will feel like a home game for the North Carolina Tar Heels being played in Charlotte.  That's not being factored into this line enough.  The Tar Heels are 9-1 SU & 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overaall with a pair of wins over Duke both home and away this season.

The Tar Heels have no weaknesses.  They have two stud guards in RJ Davis (21.4 PPG) and Elliot Cadeau (7.3 PPG, 4.1 APG) who can both get to the rim whenever they want.  They have two stud big men in Armando Bacot (14.3 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 1.5 BPG) and Harrison Ingram (12.1 PPG, 8.9 RPG) and a sharp shooter in Cormac Ryan (11.3 PPG).

Michigan State was fortunate to get a bid into the NCAA Tournament.  The Spartans went 3-5 SU in their final eight games this season including home losses to Iowa and Ohio State.   They are prone to scoring droughts and are not the best shooting team.  They only make 12 FT per game and struggle to get to the rim as well.  Any droughts in this one and they are going to get run out of the building.

North Carolina is 7-0 ATS in its last seven NCAA Tournament games.  This line should at least be -6 in favor of the Tar Heels.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

20* Gonzaga/Kansas CBS No-Brainer on Gonzaga -3.5

Gonzaga made easy work of an upstart McNeese State team 86-65 and should still be fresh as a result.  The Bulldogs improved to 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  They upset both Kentucky and St. Mary's on the road during this stretch.

Kansas shot 60.3% from the field and still needed a blown foul call from the refs to put away a bad Samford team 93-89 as 7.5-point favorites in the opener.  It continued a trend of poor play to close the season as the Jayhawks are now 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.

Head coach Bill Self announced that Kevin McCullar Jr. will be out for the NCAA Tournament prior to it.  That leaves the Jayhawks very short-handed and this is a tough spot for them having to play their 2nd game in 3 days after needing to go to the wire to beat Samford on Thursday.  They went with basically a 6-man rotation against Samford and had four starters play anywhere from 35 to 39 minutes apiece.  They will wear down in the 2H as the Bulldogs pull away after intermission.

This will feel like a home game for the Bulldogs with it being played out West in Salt Lake City.  Kansas is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road/neutral games against good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  The Jayhawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after scoring 85 points or more.  Bet Gonzaga Saturday.

15* CBB Friday BLOWOUT on TCU -3

Utah State is 1-19 SU in its last 20 NCAA Tournament Games.  The Aggies had a successful regular season winning the MWC regular season title.  But they are reeling coming into the Big Dance, going 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They needed OT to beat Fresno State twice, only beat Air Force by 12 as 17.5-point home favorites, and lost by 16 to San Diego State in the MWC Tournament.

TCU went 6-4 ATS down the stretch with narrow losses to Texas Tech by 1 and UCF by 2.  They beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 Tournament opener and I just trust this team.  The Big 12 was the toughest conference in the country, so I can see some of these middling Big 12 teams doing well in the NCAA Tournament because they are so battle-tested.

Utah State suffered 5 of its 6 losses away from home this season including losses by 13 at New Mexico, by 14 at San Diego State and by 20 at Colorado State.  They also lost by 16 to SDSU on a neutral and by 14 at home to Nevada.  Utah State didn't face a single Power 5 team all season.  Their non-conference schedule could not have been much easier, and they beat Santa Clara by 2 and San Francisco by 1 in their two toughest non-conference games.  They also lost at Bradley.  I'd argue TCU will be the best team they have faced all season.

TCU has elite size on the interior that will help them match up well with Great Osobor, who is Utah State's best player.  The Horned Frogs also have great length on the wing to make life difficult on Utah State's overmatched guards, who will be at an athletic disadvantage.  The Horned Frogs are favored for good reason despite being the higher seed.  Utah State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog.  Bet TCU Friday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pacers/Warriors UNDER 240.5

The UNDER is 9-2 in Pacers last 11 games overall.  They aren't playing as fast as they were early in the season and they have been playing much better defense since trading for Pascal Siakam.  They rank 5th in defensive rating in their last seven games, and the shooting struggles of star PG Tyrese Haliburton in recent weeks have been widely documented.  He is 21-of-97 (21.7%) from 3 since the All-Star Break.

Both the Warriors and Pacers will be motivated to play good defense tonight.  The Pacers are trying to avoid the play-in round currently sitting in the 6th seed, and the Warriors are just trying to make the play-in round sitting just 2.5 games ahead of the 11th-place Rockets.  They also want to get home court for the play-in round sitting a half-game behind the Lakers for the 9th spot.

The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between the Pacers and Warriors with 240 or fewer combined points in six of those seven.  They have averaged 219.9 combined points per game at the end of regulation in those seven meetings, so we are have more than 20 points to spare here with this 240.5-point total.

Indiana is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games against teams that attempt 21 or fewer free throws per game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* James Madison/Wisconsin CBS Late-Night BAILOUT on James Madison +4.5

James Madison is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  The Dukes went 31-3 this season with their three losses coming to Appalachian State (twice) and Southern Miss.  Keep in mind Appalachian State beat Auburn earlier this season.

But what lets me know James Madison can play with Wisconsin is the fact that they went to Michigan State and upset the Spartans in East Lansing.  They won't be scared at all to face a Big Ten opponent like Wisconsin, and I like the fact that this game is being played in Brooklyn, NY so the Badgers likely won't have many fans there.  It's less than a 6 hour drive for James Madison fans and they will have the home-court advantage if anything.

Wisconsin is a tired team after having to play 4 games in 4 days including an OT game against Purdue in the semifinals.  They ran out of gas in the 2H against Illinois in the Championship Game and lost.  I don't think they'll be fully recovered in time for the Round of 64.  James Madison made easy work of its three opponents in the Sun Belt Tournament winning by a combined 42 points and has been off since March 11th.  The Dukes will be the much fresher team for this matchup.

James Madison is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 non-conference games.  The Dukes are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games against a team with a winning record.  I think the Dukes make the Sweet 16, and it starts with an upset win over Wisconsin Friday night.  Bet James Madison Friday.

15* Charleston/Alabama TruTV ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -9.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on Alabama.  The Crimson Tide have gone 3-4 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  But they faced an absolutely brutal schedule during this stretch with road losses to Kentucky and Florida (twice) as well as a home loss to Tennessee.  They also beat Arkansas and Florida at home while winning by 14 at Ole Miss.

When you consider that Alabama also face the likes of Ohio State, Clemson, Purdue, Creighton and Arizona in the non-conference, the Crimson Tide grade out as having faced the single-toughest schedule in the entire country.  To say they are battle-tested would be an understatement.  Now they have had a full week off since the loss to Florida in the SEC Tournament to rest.  They will be rejuvenated, and they are a fully healthy right now and a dangerous No. 4 seed.

The Crimson Tide get to take a big step down in class here against Charleston, which isn't as strong as it was a year ago.  The Cougars showed very poorly in non-conference.  They lost three consecutive games on a neutral to Duquesne by 18, Vermont by 9 and Wyoming by 7.  They also lost by 16 at Florida Atlantic.  It's also concerning Charleston needed OT to beat Stony Brook as a 10-point favorite in the CAA Championship Game.  Alabama will be by far the best team they have faced this season.

I love the matchup for the Crimson Tide because they attack the rim or shoot 3-pointers, and the Cougars were the 5th-worst team in the entire country in protecting the rim on close 2-pointers.  Alabama is going to get what it wants inside for 40 minutes.  Both teams love to run as Alabama ranks 11th in adjusted tempo and Charleston ranks 58th.  More possessions favors the better team and the favorite.  Charleston is actually much worse defensively than Alabama as the Cougars rank 175th in adjusted defense, largely because they cannot protect the rim.  

Alabama is 15-8 ATS as a favorite this season.  The Crimson Tide are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 games after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games.  Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Charleston) - off four or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS since 1997.    This is a very low spread for a 4/13 matchup and it really shows that we are getting to 'buy low' on the Crimson Tide.  Bet Alabama Friday.

20* NCAA Tournament TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Charleston/Alabama OVER 170.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 11th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in adjusted offense while having the worst defense of the Nate Oats era.  Alabama is 24-8 OVER in all games this season including 12-3 OVER in road games.

The OVER is 10-1 in Alabama's last 11 games overall with 175 or more combined points in nine of their last 10 games overall.  The Crimson Tide have scored at least 87 points in eight of their last nine games overall while allowing 88 or more points in seven of their last nine games.

Charleston also likes to run ranking 59th in adjusted tempo and 58th in adjusted offense while just 175th in adjusted defense.  The Cougars have elite guards and can dice up this Alabama defense just like every other team with elite guards has this season.  Alabama likes to get to the rim and will be up against a Charleston defense that is soft inside ranking 5th-to-last in the entire country in defending shots at the rim.

Charleston is 11-1 OVER in its last 11 road games off a close win by 3 points or less against a conference opponent.  This will likely be the highest scoring game of the entire opening round.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NCAA Tournament BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue -26.5

This is more of a fade of Grambling State than anything.  The SWAC ranks 33rd of 33 conferences according to KenPom.  One look at Grambling State's results in non-conference play and it's easy to see why.

In their first 13 games this season, the Tigers went 3-10 SU with their three wins coming against UNT Dallas, Champion Christian and Biblical Studies, who aren't even ranked in KenPom.  The 10 losses were absolutely laughable.  They included blowout losses by 32 to Colorado, by 55 to Iowa State, by 30 to Dayton and by 39 to Florida.

Now Grambling State has to face the best team they have faced yet in No. 1 seed Purdue.  It's also a highly motivated Boilermakers team after losing to Fairleigh Dickinson last year.  They won't take Grambling State lightly, and it's a very tough spot for the Tigers considering they had a 15-point 2H comeback against Montana State on Wednesday and had to go to OT in an 88-81 victory.

Grambling State was able to get to the rim against Montana State and take advantage of the undersized Bobcats in the 2H.  They won't be able to do that against Purdue, which ranks 45th in average height led by mountain Zach Edey inside.  The Boilermakers will force the Tigers to try and shoot over the top of them from 3.  Grambling State averages just five 3-point makes on 15 attempts per game.  It's just not their game, and the matchup is a terrible one for them.

Purdue is 8-2-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  That includes a 99-67 win over Texas Southern as 32-point favorites, which is a fellow SWAC team and ranked very similarly to Grambling State in KenPom.  Grambling State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that average 40 or more rebounds per game.  This line should be 30 or higher.  Bet Purdue Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Thunder/Raptors UNDER 231.5

The Toronto Raptors are without four of their top five scorers in Scottie Barnes (19.9 PPG), RJ Barrett (19.5 PPG), Immanuel Quickley (16.4 PPG) and Jacob Poeltl (11.1 PPG) tonight.  It's no wonder the Raptors are struggling to score without all these guys.  They have been held to 119 points or fewer in 10 consecutive games and an average of 105.6 points per game during this stretch.  The Raptors rank dead last (30th) in offensive rating in their last 10 games and just scored 89 points against the Kings last game.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 8-4 UNDER in their last 12 games overall.  They are no longer lighting up the scoreboard behind held to 119 or fewer points in eight of their last 11 games.  But they have bee  pretty elite defensively overall and of late, ranking 5th in defensive rating this season.  They will shut down the short-handed Raptors tonight.

Toronto is 22-12 UNDER in home games this season, including 19-8 UNDER in home games with a total of 220 or higher.  The Raptors are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine home games off a blowout loss by 15 points or more.  OKC should win in a blowout tonight, which means no late fouls and a low-scoring 4th quarter.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on New Mexico/Clemson OVER 151

New Mexico is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Lobos rank 8th in adjusted tempo and 42nd in adjusted offense.  They have arguably the best trio of guards in the entire country in House, Mashburn and Dent and can get whatever they want to offensively.

Clemson really struggles defending elite guards as Joseph Girard is a weakness defensively.  But he and this Clemson offense can light it up.  The Tigers rank 27th in adjusted offense, 37th in 2-point percentage and 8th in FT percentage.  They have the bigs in PJ Hall and Ian Schieffelin that are matchup nightmares for New Mexico, which lacks defensive bigs.

New Mexico is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games off four straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers.  Clemson is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games off two straight games with 12 or fewer assists.  The Tigers are 10-1 OVER in their last 11 games off two consecutive ATS losses.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on UAB +7

UAB can beat anyone when they are on their game.  The Blazers went 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games of the season beating Temple by 28 as 6.5-point road favorites, SMU by 4 as 1.5-point road favorites, and then made easy work of Wichita State by 12, USF by 10 and Temple by 16 en route to winning the AAC Tournament.

I think the AAC as a whole is better than it gets credit for which is a big reason why Florida Atlantic didn't run through it like everyone expected.  And UAB showed well in the non-conference, too.  They lost by 2 to Bradley, by 1 to Clemson, upset Maryland and upset Drake.  They can play with San Diego State.

I think San Diego State gets too much respect for making the run to the championship game last year.  They were in dog fights every game and were simply fortunate in close games.  They are the most over-seeded team from the Mountain West getting a No. 5 seed.  The rest of the Mountain West got the shaft, and we'll take advantage here and fade the over-seeded Aztecs.

San Diego State is a tired team after making the MWC Championship Game only to lose to New Mexico.  They needed OT to beat UNLV, and five of their last six games were decided by 8 points or fewer.  I question how much gas they have left in the tank.  I know it won't be enough to put away UAB by 7-plus points, especially since the Aztecs struggle to get easy buckets on offense and are a terrible 3-point shooting team, ranking 307th in 3-point percentage at 31.3%.

UAB is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games following a win.  The Blazers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 tournament games.  The Aztecs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after playing two consecutive games as favorites.  UAB is 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Blazers are 15-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  UAB is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  SDSU is 0-7 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season.

 The Aztecs haven't been nearly as good away from Viejas Arena going just 10-9 SU & 5-14 ATS in all games played away from home.  This is also a sleepy start time for a West coast team with a 1:45 EST which will be like a 10:45 AM body clock game for the Aztecs.  They aren't used to playing this early in the day.  The Blazers are used to playing at this time being in the East.  Bet UAB Friday.

15* NC State/Texas Tech CBS Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas Tech -5

NC State just won five games in five days to win the ACC Tournament.  Four of the five games were decided by single-digits, so it took everything they had and then some.  I question how much the Wolfpack have left in the tank for the NCAA Tournament, plus they get minimal rest having to play on Thursday instead of Friday.

Texas Tech went 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its final five games this season including double-digit wins over Baylor by 10 at BYU by 14.  The lone loss came to Houston, which is to be expected against the conference champs.  I think Texas Tech is an absolute sleeper in the NCAA Tournament and could make a run.

NC State takes a ton of bad shots from the mid range which is why they cannot be trusted.  Texas Tech is a great shooting team ranking 37th in the country in 3-point percentage (36.5%).  NC State ranks 246th defending the 3 allowing 34.8% from distance.  That makes this a great matchup for the Red Raiders, who are a couple notches better than NC State on offense and defense.

Texas Tech is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games against teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game in the 2nd half of the season.  NC State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Wolfpack's run comes to an abrupt end with a blowout loss to the Red Raiders tonight.  Bet Texas Tech Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Mavericks UNDER 237.5

The Utah Jazz have been playing without their top two scorers in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson.  They are struggling on offense to say the least scoring 107 or fewer points in four of thier last five games overall.  This total is too high for a game involving the Jazz right now in their current state.

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 4-1 UNDER in their last five games overall with 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in four of the five games.  This total is also too high for a game involving the Mavericks with the way they are playing right now.

Utah and Dallas have combined for 236 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 meetings.  That makes for a 9-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this inflated 237.5-point total.  Dallas is 7-0 UNDER in home games after covering four of its last five games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -3.5

The Houston Rockets have gone 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their only two losses came against two of the best teams in the West in covers in a 5-point loss at Phoenix as 8.5-point dogs and a 6-point loss to the Clippers as 6.5-point dogs.

The Rockets now have a legitimate shot to make the play-in and are fighting hard for it.  They are just 3 games back of the Warriors and 3.5 back of the Lakers for the final two spots.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and will keep their foot on the gas at home tonight against the Chicago Bulls.  The Rockets are 23-11 SU & 24-10 ATS at home this season.

The Bulls are stuck in no-man's land.  They are 4 games behind the 76ers for the 8th seed and 3.5 games ahead of the Hawks for the 9th.  They are going to be in the play-in, and the most likely is they will be the 9th.  They don't have the sense of urgency that the Rockets do right now.  They also have some serious injury questions with Patrick Williams out, and both Coby White and Alex Caruso questionable tonight.  They may take the cautious approach with those two given their position in the standings.

Houston is 12-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Rockets are 9-0 ATS in home games when revenging a same-season loss this season.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

20* NCAA Tournament DOG OF THE WEEK on McNeese State +6

McNeese State is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  The Cowboys went 30-3 this season including a 76-65 road win at VCU, an 81-60 road win at UAB and a 87-76 road win at Michigan in the non-conference.  VCU was one win from the Big Dance, UAB made the Big Dance, and Michigan was playing much better back when McNeese State beat them.

Gonzaga has taken a big step back this season.  The Bulldogs did not deserve a No. 5 seed.  They were just a bubble team prior to beating St. Mary's in the regular season finale.  They went on to lose to St. Mary's in the WCC Tournament.  The Bulldogs have a lot of defensive holes and they aren't a great shooting team.

One thing I love about McNeese State is they take care of the basketball and force turnovers.  The Cowboys rank 25th in turnover percentage on offense and 6th in turnover percentage on defense.  They also rank 7th in 3-point shooting, making 39.4% on the season as a team.  They have a lot of big-time transfers for head coach Will Wade, including TCU transfer Shahada Wells (17.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.0 SPG), who will be the best player on the court.  Bet McNeese State Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday BLOWOUT on Illinois -11.5

Morehead State is a popular underdog pick in the opening round.  That's why this line has been bet down from an opener of 13.5 to 11.5.  But now I think is a great time to go contrarian and back Illinois as a much shorter favorite than they were at the open.

A big reason for the move is because Big Ten teams that won their conference tournament have been upset in the first round the last three years.  Illinois was one of those teams back in 2021.  But they will be made aware of this, and I expect them to avoid the letdown.

Illinois has gone 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in its last eight games with its lone loss coming to Purdue.  The Fighting Illini have done damage on the road during this stretch upsetting Wisconsin by 8 as 3-point road dogs and topping a desperate Iowa team by 12 as 2-point favorites.  They won all three games in the Big Ten Tournament including covering the last two scoring 98 points on Nebraska and 93 more on Wisconsin.  They rank 2nd in the entire country in adjusted offense and are a tough team to tame.

One quick look at what Morehead State did in non-conference play and it's easy to see why I'm willing to lay the points with Illinois.  The Eagles lost 105-73 at Alabama, 87-57 at Purdue and 74-51 at Penn State.  So there's two Big Ten opponents to compare them to, and I expect another blowout in favor of the Big Ten here.

Illinois is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  The Fighting Illini are 11-3 ATS in road games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  They have done their best work on the highway this season, and they will get plenty of fans traveling to Omaha to watch them crush Morehead State.  Bet Illinois Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Raptors UNDER 234

The UNDER would be 5-0 in Kings last five games overall if not for OT.  They were at 210 combined points at the end of regulation with Memphis last game, and have gone for 227 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in five consecutive games now.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating during this stretch.

The Kings will have no problem shutting down the Raptors, who are without four of their top five scorers in Scottie Barnes (19.9 PPG), RJ Barrett (19.5 PPG), Immanuel Quickley (16.4 PPG) and Jacob Poeltl (11.1 PPG) tonight.  It's no wonder the Raptors are struggling to score without all these guys.  They have been held to 119 points or fewer in nine consecutive games and an average of 107.4 points per game during this stretch.  The Raptors rank 29th in offensive rating in their last nine games.

Toronto is 21-12 UNDER in home games this season, including 18-8 UNDER in home games with a total of 220 or higher.  Sacramento is 45-30 UNDER In its last 75 road games.  The Kings are 12-4 UNDER in road games after going over the total in their previous game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Bucks/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Milwaukee +10.5

This line is an overreaction to the fact that the Milwaukee Bucks will be without Giannis tonight.  We saw what they were capable of without him in their last game when they beat Phoenix 140-129.  Ball movement was the key as they had 35 assists on their 51 made FG's including 16 from Lillard and 7 from Middleton, who recently returned from injury and is looking like his former self.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Celtics.  They have won and covered six consecutive games while also going 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  But they have faced a very soft schedule here of late and will be taking a big step up in class here.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us even without Giannis is asking too much.  Plus, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday and Sam Hauser are all questionable for Boston tonight, so it's not like they aren't dealing with injuries of their own.

Boston is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 home games when revenging a road loss.  Bet the Bucks Wednesday.

15* Grambling State/Montana State First 4 ANNIHILATOR on Montana State -3.5

This is more of a fade of Grambling State than anything.  The SWAC ranks 33rd of 33 conferences according to KenPom.  One look at Grambling State's results in non-conference play and it's easy to see why.

In their first 13 games this season, the Tigers went 3-10 SU with their three wins coming against UNT Dallas, Champion Christian and Biblical Studies, who aren't even ranked in KenPom.  The 10 losses were absolutely laughable.  They included blowout losses by 32 to Colorado, by 55 to Iowa State, by 30 to Dayton and by 39 to Florida.

Montana State beat California in the non-conference and had narrow losses to good Seattle (by 3), Green Bay (by 1) and Long Beach State (by 6) teams.  The Bobcats were very impressive down the stretch going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their final six games.  

They upset Idaho by 14 as 1-point road dogs, lost in OT at Eastern Washington by 4 as 8.5-point dogs, upset Weber State by 12 as 5-point dogs, upset Weber State again by 9 as 8.5-point dogs, beat Sacramento State by 3 as 5-point favorites and crushed Montana by 15 as 6.5-point dogs.  This team is clearly grossly overvalued here of late with four outright wins as underdogs among those six games.  They make easy work of Grambling State tonight.  Bet Montana State Wednesday.

15* Colorado State/Virginia First 4 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 120.5

Virginia is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Cavaliers rank dead last in the country in adjusted tempo (362nd).  They are also 7th in adjusted defense and a terrible offensive team, which is why nobody but Virginia fans want them in the tournament.  While they're here we might as well take advantage and back a Virginia UNDER.

Colorado State is also a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Rams also prefer to play at a snail's pace ranking 270th in adjusted tempo.  They are much better defensive team than they get credit for ranking 38th in adjusted defense.  They rely heavily on PG Isaiah Stevens to score, and Virginia has the answer with two 1st-team All-ACC defenders in Reece Beekman and Ryan Dunn to slow him down.

Virginia combined with Boston College for 114 points at the end of regulation and with NC State for 116 combined points at the end of regulation in a pair of OT games.  But because those games went to OT I think we are getting a little extra value on the UNDER.  Virginia and its opponents have combined for 121 or fewer points at the end of regulation in six of its last eight games, including 96 points with Wake Forest and 98 points with UNC.

Virginia is 8-2 UNDER in non-conference games this season.  Colorado State is 8-0 UNDER after winning four of its last five games this season.  The Rams are 10-0 UNDER in their last 10 games vs. teams that shoot 15 or fewer free throws per game after 15-plus games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +9

The Dallas Mavericks are coming off a 107-105 upset home win over the defending champion Denver Nuggets.  Kyrie Irving hit a buzzer-beater with a left-handed floater in one of the luckiest shots you will ever see as a game-winner.  It's safe to say the Mavericks are now in a massive letdown spot off that huge win.

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall and are improving here down the stretch.  That includes upset wins over both the Thunder and Pacers at home, as well as the Warriors on the road.  Asking the Mavericks to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

Dallas is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games off a close win by 3 points or less.  The Mavericks are 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans -7

The New Orleans Pelicans have quietly gone 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and are playing some of their best basketball of the season.  It's easy to see why as they are fully healthy and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They are 5th place in the West and motivated to avoid the play-in.

The Brooklyn Nets are coming off an upset loss to the Spurs and are now just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with losses to the lowly Pistons and Hornets as well.  They clearly aren't too concerned with making the play-in as they trail the Hawks by 4 games now.  Had they gone just 3-3 they'd be two games back.  This is a dead team walking right now.

New Orleans is 7-0 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season and outscoring them by 18.8 points per game.  The Pelicans beat the Nets 112-85 in their lone meeting this season.  New Orleans is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 games as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* Knicks/Warriors ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 213.5

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace in the entire NBA.  They get after it defensively ranking 7th in defensive rating.  They are still missing Julius Randle so they have rely even more on defense.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Knicks last nine games overall with 209 or fewer combined points in eight of those nine games.

The Knicks just got OG Anunoby back from injury and are #1 in the NBA in defensive rating since trading for him.  Their last five games have been very low-scoring with a 98-74 win over Orlando for 172 combined points, a 79-73 loss to Philadelphia for 152 combined points, a 106-79 win over Philadelphia for 185 combined points, a 105-93 win over Portland for 198 combined points and a 98-91 win over Sacramento for 189 combined points.  The books just can't set their totals low enough.

The Golden State Warriors have been much better defensively since getting Draymond Green back.  These teams met back on February 29th with Golden State winning 110-99 for just 209 combined points.  It should be another defensive battle in the rematch tonight.

New York is 8-0 UNDER after allowing 100 points or less in two straight games this season.  The Knicks are 10-1 UNDER after scoring 100 points or less this season.  The UNDER is 15-5 in Warriors last 20 games overall.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (New York) - a good team outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game, after allowing 95 points or less in four consecutive games are 23-4 (85.2%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Jazz UNDER 224

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Minnesota and Utah just squared off on Saturday with the Timberwolves winning 119-100 for 219 combined points.  This should be another defensive battle tonight in the rematch.

Minnesota is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Timberwolves rank 1st in defensive rating and 22nd in pace.  They are without Karl-Anthony Towns (22.1 PPG) right now, so they are having to rely even more on defense.

Utah has been without two of its top three scorers in Lauri Markkanen (23.1 PPG) and Jordan Clarkson (17.4 PPG) for an extended stretch now.  Points haven't been nearly as easy to come by without these two, and since they are basically eliminated from playoff contention it wouldn't make much sense to rush either back.

The UNDER is 3-0 in all three meetings between the Timberwolves and Jazz this season with 219, 191 and 218 combined points in those three.  It will be more of the same in the 4th and final meeting tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Indiana Pacers -6.5

Cleveland will be without Donovan Mitchell (27.4 PPG), Evan Mobley (15.6 PPG) and Max Strus (12.2 PPG) tonight.  Not having Mitchell in the lineup here of late has really hampered them offensively as they have averaged just 106.0 points per game in their last eight games.  They have gone just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall and have been consistently overvalued due to these injuries.

The Indiana Pacers sit in 6th place in the East just a half-game ahead of both the Heat and 76ers for the 7th and 8th seeds, which would be the play-in teams.  They desperately want to avoid the play-in and are playing like it.  

They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with blowout wins by 14 at Orlando, by 10 at OKC and by 21 at home over Brooklyn.  The lone loss came in OT to the Bulls on the 2nd of a back-to-back after the upset win at OKC, which was predictable. They are fresh right now playing just their 2nd game in 5 days as well.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Raptors/Magic UNDER 217

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Orlando just beat Toronto 113-103 on Friday for 216 combined points.  Now these teams face off again in Orlando tonight, and another defensive battle will be the result.

Orlando is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Magic rank 4th in defensive rating and 26th in pace.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Magic last 11 games overall with 216 or fewer combined points in seven of their last 10 games overall.

The UNDER is 10-6 in Raptors last 16 games overall.  Injuries have made points very hard to come by for the Raptors here of late.  They are missing arguably their three best players in Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett right now.  They have lost eight of their last nine games while ranking 27th in offensive rating during this stretch.

Toronto is 14-4 UNDER in its last 18 games off a home loss by 10 points or more.  Orlando is 170-128 UNDER in its last 298 Sunday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Pistons UNDER 215

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Heat and Pistons after they just combined for 203 points on Friday.  It will also be the 3rd meeting in 13 days between these teams, so they are very familiar with one another to say the least.

Miami is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The UNDER is 12-3 in Heat last 15 games overall.  The Heat rank 28th in pace this season and 9th in defensive rating.  Injuries are really hampering them offensively right now as they are without Herro, Richardson, Love and Jovic plus Jimmy Butler is questionable.

The Detroit Pistons have been a dead nuts UNDER team since the trade deadline where they lost their two best shooters in Bogdanovic and Burks.  The UNDER is 11-4 in Pistons last 15 games overall.

The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between the Pistons and Heat with 212 or fewer combined points in seven of those 10 games.  Detroit is 8-0 UNDER in home games off two consecutive home games this season.  Miami is 42-24 UNDER in all games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Suns/Bucks ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 227.5

Milwaukee has been a dead nuts UNDER team since Doc Rivers took over as head coach.  The Bucks are 16-3-2 UNDER in their last 21 games overall with 223 or fewer combined points in 14 of their last 17 games.  The UNDER is 10-2-1 in Suns last 13 games overall with 228 or fewer combined points in eight of their last 11 games overall.  The books have set this total too high today.

I love betting UNDERS in early start games on Sunday's.  Usually teams are sleep walking through the first half because they aren't used to playing this early in the day.  The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Suns and Bucks with 220, 220 and 205 combined points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Duquesne/VCU UNDER 128

The Atlantic 10 Tournament has been very low scoring thus far.  Ten of the 13 games have seen 132 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  Teams haven't been able to figure out these rims, plus teams play great defense in this conference and slow down the tempo.  It will be more of the same in the Atlantic 10 Championship Game.

Duquesne is a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 248th in adjusted tempo, 34th in adjusted defense and 156th in adjusted offense.  The Dukes have allowed 66 or fewer points in eight of their last 10 games overall.  They held a very good Dayton team to just 57 points and St. Bonaventure to 60 points in their last two games.

VCU is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Rams rank 302nd in adjusted tempo and 50th in adjusted defense.  The Rams allowed just 62 points to Fordham, 59 to UMass and 60 points to St. Joseph's in their first three games in this tournament.  Both teams will struggle to reach 60 points in this one.

Duquesne is 23-9 UNDER in all games this season.  Duquesne is 16-4 UNDER in conference games this season.  The Dukes are 21-6 UNDER vs. teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Duquesne is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 games against teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Duquesne/VCU Atlantic 10 No-Brainer on Duquesne +2.5

Duquesne has been grossly undervalued since late January.  The Dukes won seven consecutive games and have gone 14-3 SU in their last 17 games overall.  They beat Atlantic 10 favorite Dayton 65-57 and followed it up with a 70-60 win over St. Bonaventure yesterday to prove how good they are and that they belong.  They'll remain playing with a chip on their shoulder today as underdogs to VCU.

VCU has had an easier path to the Championship Game and their games have bene closer than Duquesne.  Also, the Dukes won the lone regular season meeting 69-59 as 5-point road dogs at VCU on March 5th, which is a very tough place to win.  It will be more of the same in the rematch today on a neutral.

Duquesne is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a neutral court underdog or PK.  The Dukes are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a good team that wins 60-80% of their games.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Duquesne Sunday.

20* Knicks/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 219.5

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace in the entire NBA.  They get after it defensively ranking 7th in defensive rating.  They are still missing Julius Randle so they have rely even more on defense.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Knicks last eight games overall with 209 or fewer combined points in seven of those eight games.

The Knicks just got OG Anunoby back from injury and are #1 in the NBA in defensive rating since trading for him.  Their last four games have been very low-scoring with a 98-74 win over Orlando for 172 combined points, a 79-73 loss to Philadelphia for 152 combined points, a 106-79 win over Philadelphia for 185 combined points and a 105-93 win over Portland for 198 combined points.  The books just can't set their totals low enough.

The Sacramento Kings are much better defensively than they get credit for.  That has been on display in their last two games holding the Lakers to 107 points and the Bucks to 94 points.  I think they can hold the Knicks in check today as well.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 points (New YOrk) - a good team outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game, after allowing 95 points or less in four consecutive games are 22-4 (84.6%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are fighting for the No. 1 seed in the West with a lot to play for right now.  They have gone 11-3 SU in their last 14 games overall with seven wins by 13 points or more and 10 wins by 7 points or more.  I fully expect them to make easy work of the hapless Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Grizzlies and they continue to pile up late in the season.  They have gone just 3-8 SU in their last 11 games overall with three wins coming against the Nets, 76ers and Wizards.  They have been blown out on a regular basis, including a 124-93 loss at OKC on March 10th less than a week ago.  It will be more of the same tonight.  Bet the Thunder Saturday.

20* Marquette/UConn Big East No-Brainer on UConn -8.5

The UConn Huskies are a juggernaut and the best team in the country.  They have gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall despite being a public team with everyone knowing how good they are.  The books just haven't been able to set their spreads high enough.

Marquette is without PG Tyler Kolek (15.0 PPG, 7.6 APG, 40% 3-pointers) and cannot compete with UConn without him.  They lost 74-67 as 5-point home underdogs without him, and 81-53 as 7-point road dogs with him.  This will essentially be a home game for the Huskies as their fans take over Madison Square Garden.  Playing their 3rd game in 3 days including one in OT, the Golden Eagles' lack of depth will really get tested today.

UConn is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 neutral court games.  One of those losses came by 2 to Marquette in the Big East Tournament last year, and the Huskies have not forgotten.  They will get their revenge in blowout fashion tonight.  Bet UConn Saturday.

25* CBB UPSET SHOCKER GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +5

The T-Mobile Center in Kansas City is known as Hilton South.  The Iowa State Cyclones always get a great following for the Big 12 Tournament and it's like the same home-court advantage they have when playing in Hilton, and they didn't lose once at home this season.  They made easy work of Kansas State 76-57 in the opener and easy work of Baylor 76-62 yesterday.

Nobody has played Houston tougher than Iowa State.  The Cyclones won 57-53 at home in their first meeting and lost 73-65 to the Cougars on the road in their 2nd meeting.  Nobody else stayed within single-digits of Houston on the road.  But now it will be the Cyclones with the home-court advantage with probably the best following from fans in the entire country for their conference tournament.

Houston is short-handed right now and not a very deep team.  That makes it tougher for them to play 3 games in 3 days.  They are without Joseph Tugler and Ramon Walker, plus J'Wan Roberts is battling a knee injury and questionable for this championship game.  He is quietly their most important player doing all the dirty work down low, and Tugler also provided some of it before he went out.

TJ Otzelberger is 14-2 ATS vs. teams who average 9 or more steals per game as the coach of Iowa State.  The Cyclones are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 conference tournament games.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* Nebraska/Illinois Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska +4.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They have gone 23-9 SU & 21-11 ATS, including 13-8 SU & 14-7 ATS in Big Ten play.  They remain undervalued as 4.5-point dogs to Illinois today.

Both Illinois and Nebraska got a bye into the quarterfinals.  But Nebraska is going to be the fresher team because they crushed Indiana 93-66 yesterday, while Illinois needed a double-digit comeback to beat Ohio State 77-74.  The Fighting Illini basically trailed the entire way despite Ohio State playing its 3rd game in 3 days and being a tired team.

Now the Huskers have their sights set on revenge from an 87-84 (OT) road loss at Illinois.  The Huskers already proved they could play with the Fighting Illini on the road, and now I love their chances of pulling off the upset on a neutral in the rematch.

Nebraska is 9-1 ATS with a total of 150 to 159.5 this season.  The Huskers are 10-1 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including 8-0 ATS when revenging a road loss.  Illinois is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 tournament games.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

15* Texas A&M/Florida SEC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 152

One quick look at the head-to-head history between Texas A&M and Florida shows that this total has been set too high.  They combined for 133 points in their lone meeting this season.  They have combined for 140 or fewer points at the end of regulation in six consecutive meetings and an average of just 126.3 combined points at the end of regulation.  We have 26 points to play with here with this total of 152.  

The Aggies and Gators have combined for 149 or fewer points at the end of regulation in 15 of their last 16 meetings, making for a 15-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 152-point total.  Enough said.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on St. Bonaventure/Duquesne UNDER 135

The Atlantic 10 Tournament has been very low scoring thus far.  Eight of the 11 games have seen 132 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  Now these teams have had a day off to prepare for their opponents on Friday, which will benefit defense.

Duquesne is a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 246th in adjusted tempo, 34th in adjusted defense and 162nd in adjusted offense.  The Dukes have allowed 66 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games overall.  They held a very good Dayton team to just 57 points last game.

St. Bonaventure is also a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Bonnies rank 288th in adjusted tempo this season, so this game will be played at a snail's pace.  They held Loyola-Chicago to just 58 points at the end of regulation last game.

Duquesne and St. Bonaventure have combined for 136 or fewer points in eight of their last nine meetings, including 126 or fewer in six of those nine.  Duquesne is 22-9 UNDER in all games this season, including 15-4 UNDER in conference games.  The Dukes are 10-1 UNDER in their last 11 games vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* St. Bonaventure/Duquesne Atlantic 10 ANNIHILATOR on Duquesne PK

Duquesne has been grossly undervalued since late January.  The Dukes won six consecutive games and have gone 13-3 SU in their last 16 games overall.  They beat Atlantic 10 favorite Dayton 65-57 last game to prove how good they are right now.  They also swept St. Bonaventure in the regular season winning 54-50 at home and 75-69 on the road.

St. Bonaventure is very fortunate to be in the semifinals.  The Bonnies beat La Salle 75-73 as 8.5-point favorites in the opener and Loyola-Chicago 75-74 (2 OT) in the quarterfinals for two wins by a combined 3 points.  Plus, Loyola-Chicago choked not scoring a single point in the final 6:02 of regulation after being in complete control, getting outscored 11-0 to close out the game to go to OT.

Duquesne is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after a combined score of 125 points or less.  The Dukes are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a good team that wins 60-80% of their games.  Bet Duquesne Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on South Florida ML -150

South Florida is 24-6 this season including 17-2 in AAC play and still lacking the respect they deserve in the AAC Tournament.  Somehow this team is on the wrong side of the bubble, and the Bulls have been playing with a chip on their shoulder because of it.  That chip will be bigger than ever in the AAC Tournament.

South Florida is coming off an 81-59 win over ECU as 8-point favorites to improve to 22-2 SU in its last 24 games overall.  One of those losses came 75-71 at UAB on January 7th in their lone meeting this season.  The Bulls want revenge from that defeat now and are fresh after blowing out ECU yesterday.

UAB beat Wichita State 72-60 yesterday.  But Wichita State was playing its 3rd game in 3 days after two tough games that went down to the wire.  The Blazers won't have that same luxury today against the fresh Bulls, who will get their revenge and win this game.

USF is 8-0 ATS after winning six or seven of its last eight games this season.  Bet South Florida on the Money Line Saturday.

15* St. Joe's/VCU Atlantic 10 Early ANNIHILATOR on St. Joe's/VCU UNDER 139.5

The Atlantic 10 Tournament has been very low scoring thus far.  Eight of the 11 games have seen 132 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  Now these teams have had a day off to prepare for their opponents on Friday, which will benefit defense.

VCU is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Rams rank 297th in adjusted tempo and 56th in adjusted defense.  The Rams allowed just 62 points to Fordham and 59 to UMass in their first two games in this tournament.  St. Joe's has upped its defense down the stretch, holding nine straight opponents to 75 points or fewer, including 57 to George Mason and 61 to Richmond in the first two games of this tournament.  I don't expect either team to get to 70 today.

St. Joe's is 10-2 UNDER in its last 12 games when revenging a same-season loss.  VCU Is 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Purdue Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin +6.5

The Wisconsin Badgers are playing with double-revenge today.  They lost by 6 at home and by 8 on the road in their two meetings with Purdue this season.  So they have shown they can play with the Boilermakers, and I think getting 6.5 points with them is a tremendous value today.

The Badgers have saved their best basketball for last going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They crushed Maryland 87-56 in the Big Ten Tournament opener and were never really threatened late in their 70-61 win over Northwestern yesterday.  

Purdue was life and death with Michigan State in a 67-62 win yesterday.  PG Braden Smith (13.0 PPG, 7.2 APG, 44.6% 3-pointers) suffered a bad knee injury in that win over the Spartans.  He was hobbled pretty badly and I wouldn't be surprised if he sits today.  Matt Painter would be wise to sit him, but if he does play he won't be anywhere near 100%.

Greg Gard is 20-9 ATS when revenging a same-season loss as the coach of Wisconsin.  The Badgers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 tournament games.  Purdue is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 March games.  Wisconsin is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games against a top-level team that wins more than 80% of their games.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado -2

Colorado is a dangerous team when fully healthy and are proving it here down the stretch.  The Buffaloes are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with five wins by double-digits, plus road wins over both USC and Oregon.  That includes their 72-58 win over Utah yesterday.

Washington State had a much easier opponent in Stanford yesterday.  The Cougars are already in the NCAA Tournament and won't be as motivated as Colorado, which is somehow still on the bubble despite winning seven consecutive games.  The Buffaloes have been playing with a chip on their shoulder because of it, and that chip will remain tonight.

Washington State is 0-7 ATS in road games off a win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons.  Bet Colorado Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on NC State +3

Virginia is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Cavaliers are going to make the NCAA Tournament but they shouldn't.  They rank 9th in luck of 362 teams in the country, which is a stat that factors in wins in close games.  They have a ton of them.

The Cavaliers had another lucky win yesterday beating Boston College 66-60 (OT).  They trailed basically the entire way and never led by more than 2 points in regulation.  Their luck runs out today against a healthy, motivated NC State team that needs to win the ACC Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament.

NC State has been impressive in this ACC Tournament.  They upset Syracuse 83-65 in the opener and then upset Duke 74-69 as 11-point dogs yesterday.  They carry that momentum into yet another upset win over Virginia even though I believe they are the better team and should be favored.

Virginia is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games off a win by 6 points or less.  NC State is 35-18 ATS in its last 53 conference tournament games.  Bet NC State Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on San Diego State/Utah State UNDER 137

Both San Diego State and Utah State are tired teams after both needed OT to beat UNLV and Fresno State, respectively, yesterday.  I think those tired legs will make more of an impact on the offensive end than the defensive end.

San Diego State is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Aztecs rank 252nd in adjusted tempo and 8th in adjusted defense.  They struggle to get easy points on offense and aren't a very good shooting team ranking 299th in 3-point shooting.

A big reason Utah State won the MWC regular season title is their improvement on defense this season.  They rank 52nd in defensive rating.  The UNDER is 6-2-1 in San Diego State's last nine games and would be 7-1-1 if not for going to OT yesterday.  These teams combined for just 131 points in their most recent meeting on February 20th.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* Conference Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State ML -115

The T-Mobile Center in Kansas City is known as Hilton South.  The Cyclones always get a great following for the Big 12 Tournament and it's like the same home-court advantage they have when playing in Hilton, and they didn't lose once at home this season.  They made easy work of Kansas State 76-57 yesterday and will still be fresh today as a result.

Now the Cyclones have their sights set on revenge from a 70-68 loss at Baylor in their lone meeting this season.  They hit a 3-pointer just after that buzzer that counted originally but was waved off.  They had a shot to win despite Baylor shooting 12-of-23 (52.2%) from 3-point range, and the Bears won't shoot that well again.

Baylor needed a 2H comeback to beat Cincinnati 68-56 yesterday.  That was a tired Cincinnati team playing their 3rd game in 3 days as well.  I think the Bears are getting way too much respect here as essentially a PK against Iowa State in a game that will feel like a home game for the Cyclones as it always does in Hilton South.

Iowa State is 28-13 ATS in its last 41 conference tournament games.  Baylor is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after covering four of its last five games.  The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game after 15-plus games.  The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in their last eight games against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games this season.  Bet Iowa State on the Money Line Friday.

15* Indiana/Nebraska Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska -3.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They have gone 22-9 SU & 20-11 ATS, including 12-8 SU & 13-7 ATS in Big Ten play.  They remain undervalued as only 3.5-point favorites over Indiana today.

Nebraska has the rest advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals.  Meanwhile, Indiana was life and death yesterday in a 61-59 victory over Penn State, which had played the day prior and was at a rest disadvantage. Indiana has basically a 6-man rotation right now without Trey Galloway (10.6 PPG, 4.6 APG), which makes this back-to-back situation for them even worse than most teams.

Indiana is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games when playing its 3rd game in a week.  The Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  The Huskers beat the Hoosiers 86-70 at home and 85-70 on the road in their two meetings this season.  Nebraska is 14-4 ATS as a favorite this season.  Bet Nebraska Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Pistons +8.5

The Detroit Pistons have quietly gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost 118-110 at Miami as 11-point dogs during this stretch, and now they'll want revenge as 8.5-point home dogs in the rematch tonight.

I think this is a flat spot for the Heat, who fell short in their bid for revenge on the Denver Nuggets in their last game.  They lost 100-88 to fall to 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games.  They are now 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and grossly overvalued.  They are without Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson and Kevin Love right now, and the Terry Rozier experiment just isn't working out.

Miami is 3-11 ATS off two consecutive losses this season.  Detroit is 11-3 ATS off two consecutive home games this season.  The Heat are 20-40 ATS in their last 60 games against a team with a losing record.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Detroit) - a poor team that is outscored by 3-plus points per game, after allowing 105 points or fewer in two consecutive games are 44-13 (77.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +10

The Charlotte Hornets have quietly gone 11-6-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  This young team just keeps showing up on a nightly basis.  They will relish the opportunity to try and take down the Phoenix Suns at home tonight.

The Suns are in a terrible spot here.  They failed to get revenge in a 127-112 road loss at Boston last night after losing to the Celtics at home less than a week earlier.  Now they are in a flat spot here as they won't nearly be as motivated to beat the Hornets tonight.  

This is also a sandwich spot for the Suns, who have another big game on deck at Milwaukee on Sunday.  They are a tired team after Devin Booker played 38 minutes, Bradley Beal 36, Kevin Durant 34, Grayson Allen 36 and Jusuf Nurkic 31 last night.  They have zero depth, so they can't handle this back-to-back situations as well as other NBA teams with depth.

The Suns are 7-21 ATS after going over the total in their previous game this season.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* Pitt/UNC ACC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +7.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers remain one of the most underrated teams in the country, going 10-2 SU & 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall, yet they are on the bubble.  This team is playing with a chip on their shoulder as a result.  They made easy work of Wake Forest yesterday, and now they have a great shot to pull the upset over North Carolina today.

Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when revenging a home loss.  The Panthers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring 80 points or more in two consecutive games.  The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven ACC Tournament semifinal games.  Bet Pittsburgh Friday.

20* St. John's/UConn Big East No-Brainer on St. John's +9.5

St. John's has been on a tear since head coach Rick Pitino called out his team.  They have gone 6-0 SU in their last six games overall including an 80-66 upset win over Creighton and blowout wins over Butler by 23 on the road and Seton Hall by 19 in the opener of the Big East Tournament yesterday.

Now the Red Storm have their sights set on revenge on the UConn Huskies.  They led UConn at halftime in each of their first two meetings this season before falling apart in the 2H.  It has been a problem for the Red Storm all season until lately.  They are closing these games out, and I think they will close this one out too with a great chance to pull off the outright upset.

Asking UConn to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  UConn was in more of a dog fight with Xavier yesterday than they should have been trailing 10-0 early.  The Huskies thus had to play their starters in the 2H to put them away.  They have benefited from a pretty easy schedule here down the stretch and will get more of a fight than they bargained for from the Red Storm here tonight.  Bet St. John's Friday.

15* Wisconsin/Northwestern Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -3.5

The Wisconsin Badgers made easy work of Maryland 87-56 yesterday.  They got to rest their starters in the 2H and will still be fresh for this game against Northwestern.  That's why I'm willing to lay the points with the Badgers despite being at a rest disadvantage against the Wildcats, who got a bye into the quarterfinals.

The Wildcats are vulnerable right now playing without two key players in G Ty Berry (11.6 PPG, 43.3% 3-pointers) and C Matthew Nicholson (5.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.4 BPG) to really hamper their depth.  They lost two of their final three games to close out the regular season without these guys.  Bet Wisconsin Friday.

15* CBB Friday Early ANNIHILATOR on South Florida -7

South Florida is 23-6 this season including 16-2 in AAC play and still lacking the respect they deserve in the AAC Tournament.  Somehow this team is on the wrong side of the bubble, and the Bulls have been playing with a chip on their shoulder because of it.  That chip will be bigger than ever in the AAC Tournament.

The Bulls have the rest advantage over East Carolina in this one.  They got a bye into the quarterfinals while East Carolina was life and death with Tulsa yesterday in an 84-79 victory.  The Pirates won't have much left in the tank for the Bulls, who won their lone meeting on the road 71-60 earlier this season.

South Florida is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS after winning six or seven of their last eight games this season.  Bet South Florida Friday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado -3.5

Colorado is a dangerous team when fully healthy and are proving it here down the stretch.  The Buffaloes are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with four wins by double-digits, plus road wins over both USC and Oregon.  That includes their 89-65 home win over Utah on February 24th.

It should be another blowout in the Buffaloes' favor in the rematch due to their rest advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals, while Utah had to play Arizona State yesterday.  While the Utes made easy work of the Sun Devils, things will come much tougher for them today against a Colorado team that has a legit shot to run the table and win the Pac-12 Tournament.

Utah is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 points or more, and 0-6 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss this season.  Bet Colorado Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Knicks/Blazers UNDER 206.5

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace in the entire NBA.  They get after it defensively ranking 8th in defensive rating.  They are still missing Julius Randle so they have rely even more on defense.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Knicks last seven games overall with 209 or fewer combined points in six of those seven games.

The Knicks just got OG Anunoby back from injury and are #1 in the NBA in defensive rating since trading for him.  Their last three games have been very low-scoring with a 98-74 win over Orlando for 172 combined points, a 79-73 loss to Philadelphia for 152 combined points and a 106-79 win over Philadelphia for 185 combined points.  The books just can't set their totals low enough.

The Blazers are really struggling to score right now with all of their injuries.  The Blazers rank 28th in the NBA in offensive rating.  They also prefer to play slow like the Knicks ranking just 23rd in pace.  This game will be slowed to a crawl, and both teams will struggle offensively.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Villanova/Marquette Big East ANNIHILATOR on Villanova +4.5

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on Villanova.  They needed a 3-pointer in the final seconds to beat DePaul as a 24.5-point favorite yesterday.  Nobody wants to back this team now.  The Wildcats are playing with a chip on their shoulder because of all the hate they have been receiving.  They are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and a win over Marquette today may very well get them in.

The Golden Eagles are without G Tyler Kolek (15.0 PPG, 40% 3-pointers) right now.  Kolek scored 53 points combined in his two meetings with Villanova earlier this season, so not having him on the court in the 3rd meeting here will make all the difference and gives the Wildcats a legit shot to pull off the upset.  Bet Villanova Thursday.

20* Big East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Villanova/Marquette UNDER 143.5

Villanova is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Wildcats rank 348th in adjusted tempo and 14th in adjusted defense and struggle to get easy buckets on offense.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Villanova's last eight games overall with 134 or fewer combined points in 11 consecutive games, which makes for an 11-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 143.5-point total.

Marquette is an UNDER team in its current state.  The Golden Eagles are without G Tyler Kolek (15.0 PPG, 40% 3-pointers) right now.  Kolek scored 53 points combined in his two meetings with Villanova earlier this season, so not having him on the court in the 3rd meeting here will benefit the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor -4.5

Baylor got a bye into the quarterfinals and has a massive rest advantage over Cincinnati.  The Bearcats will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days after a hard-fought 90-85 win over West Virginia in the opener, and then beating a dead Kansas team yesterday that was without its two best players in Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson.

Now the Bearcats take a big step up in class here against a Baylor team that is fully healthy and hitting on all cylinders right now.  The Bears just got Langston Love back from injury for their run through these conference and NCAA Tournaments.  Cincinnati is not a deep team and playing their 3rd game in 3 days will really test that depth.

Baylor is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 40 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games, including a perfect 9-0 ATS since Scott Drew took over in Waco.  Cincinnati is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent.  Bet Baylor Thursday.

15* Boston College/Virginia ACC ANNIHILATOR on Boston College +5

Rarely will I back a team playing their 3rd game in 3 days against a team that hasn't played yet in these conference tournaments.  Usually the team playing their 3rd game in 3 days runs out of gas, but that shouldn't be the case for Boston College.

The Eagles made easy work of Miami 81-65 two days ago and then easy work of Clemson 76-55 yesterday.  They are a pretty deep team with a 9-man rotation, and four of their five starters played 31 or fewer minutes yesterday.  They should still be plenty fresh for Virginia tonight.

Virginia is one of the most overrated teams in the country and doesn't belong in the Big Dance.  The Cavaliers are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Two of the three wins came by 4 points or less, including a 4-point win over Boston College on February 28th, which places the Eagles in revenge mode as well.

Virginia is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games away from home after winning two of its last three games.  The Eagles are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and I'll ride that momentum today in a game they are more than capable of pulling off the outright upset for a 3rd consecutive day.  Bet Boston College Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Washington State -8.5

Washington State has the rest advantage over Stanford today.  The Cougars got a bye into the Pac-12 quarterfinals, while the Cardinal needed an 18-point 2H comeback to beat rival California yesterday.  Not only that, but the Cardinal needed OT to get the job done, so they are extra tired.

The only team Stanford has been able to beat here of late is lowly California, who they get up for because they are rivals.  The Cardinal are 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall with both wins coming of Cal, and all six losses coming by 10 points or more.  Four starters played at least 36 minutes for Stanford yesterday, and they won't have much left in the tank for Washington State tonight.

Washington State beat Stanford 89-75 on the road and 72-59 at home in their two meetings earlier this season.  Another double-digit victory in their favor will be the result with their rest advantage tonight.  The Cougars are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better.  Bet Washington State Thursday.

20* Suns/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix +6

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They just got Devin Booker back from injury and promptly beat Cleveland on the road last time out.  Now they have had the last two days off and will be fresh and nearly fully healthy for this rematch against the Boston Celtics tonight.

The Suns didn't have Booker when they lost 117-107 at home to the Celtics on March 9th.  So they will now be out for revenge on the Celtics from that defeat, and I like their chances of staying within 6 points and possibly pulling off the upset in the rematch.

Boston doesn't have much to play for the rest of the way and will have a hard time getting motivated to beat the Suns again.  This is a terrible spot for the Celtics, who are returning home from a 5-game road trip.  I always like fading teams in that first home game back from a long road trip because there are a ton of distractions to deal with back at home.  

They will also be playing in their 6th different city in 10 days, will be without Kristaps Porzingis tonight, and could be without Jaylen Brown who is questionable.  This is a tired team right now.  The Suns are the fresher, more motivated team, which is exactly the type of team I'm looking to back in the NBA.  Bet the Suns Thursday.

15* K-State/Iowa State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -5.5

The T-Mobile Center in Kansas City is known as Hilton South.  The Cyclones always get a great following for the Big 12 Tournament and it's like the same home-court advantage they have when playing in Hilton, and they didn't lose once at home this season.

The Cyclones have the rest advantage today after getting a bye into the quarterfinals, while the Wildcats needed a big comeback to beat Texas 78-74 yesterday.  The Wildcats are not a deep team and had five players play at least 29 minutes yesterday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Cyclones today.

Iowa State also wants revenge from a 65-58 loss at Kansas State in the regular season finale.  They had just accomplished a perfect home record with a 68-63 home win over BYU three days prior and were in a clear letdown spot.  Now the Wildcats will have their full attention in the rematch here tonight.

Iowa State is 10-2 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days this season.  The Cyclones are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 conference tournament games.  Iowa State is 60-38 ATS in its last 98 games when revenging a loss where they scored 60 points or less.  Bet Iowa State Thursday.