25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston +5

The Houston Cougars are 34-4 this season with all four losses coming by 5 points or fewer, including three in OT.  They have only lost one game since December 1st and that was a 1-point loss to Texas Tech in OT.  They are battle-tested and have come out on top in almost all of their close games since December.

The Cougars had the toughest route to the Final 4 of any of the four remaining teams, and especially much tougher than Duke's path.  It started with beating Gonzaga, which was the most under-seeded team in the entire tournament.  Then they beat the defending runners-up in Purdue in a dog fight in what was essentially a home game for the Boilermakers being played in Indianapolis.  Tennessee has the home-court advantage last round in Indianapolis, but it didn't matter as the Cougars put together their most complete performance of the season in a wire-to-wire job in a 69-50 win over Vols.

Now it's Houston that gets the home-court advantage here.  The Final 4 will be played in the Alamodome in San Antonio.  Houston is the 9th team to play in its home state in the Final 4 since 1975. Those teams playing in their home state have gone 7-1 SU in the previous eight instances, including both underdogs winning outright.

Duke has played four pretty soft, guard-oriented teams to get here.  The last three wins came against Baylor, Arizona and Alabama.  Arizona from the Big 12 gave them their toughest test in a 7-point defeat.  Houston went 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Arizona this season.

Duke has struggled against more physical, defensive-minded teams that slow down the tempo.  Their last loss came against Clemson, which ranks 327th in adjusted tempo and 17th in adjusted defense.  They also lost to fellow Big 12 opponent Kansas earlier this season, and the Jayhawks rank 11th in adjusted defense.  Kansas lost both meetings with Houston this season.

Duke hasn't seen a team that will challenge them physically and mentally like Houston will.  The Cougars rank 360th in adjusted tempo and 1st in adjusted defense.  But this is also the best offense of the Kelvin Sampson era with the Cougars ranking 10th in adjusted offense.  The trio of guards in Cryer, Uzan and Sharpe can match that of Duke, and Roberts, Francis and Tugler are a trio of big men that are tough to deal with inside.  

I expect Houston to win the majority of the loose balls and to feed off of what will feel like a home crowd in San Antonio.  This line should be much closer to PK.  Finally, the Cougars want revenge from a 54-51 loss to Duke in the Sweet 16 last season.  Jamal Shead got hurt in the 1H in that game and wasn't able to return, and it made all the difference.  The Cougars get their revenge in the Final 4 one year later.  Bet Houston Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/76ers OVER 224.5

The Philadelphia 76ers have been a dead nuts OVER team here down the stretch with all offense and no defense while also playing fast.  The 76ers are 12-4-1 OVER in their last 17 games overall with 228 or more combined points in 12 of those 17 games.  This is a very low total for a game involving the 76ers right now.

The Timberwolves have also been an OVER team here down the stretch now that they are fully healthy.  The Timberwolves are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall with 227 or more combined points in eight of their last 10 games overall.  This is also a very low total involving Minnesota right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -2

The Memphis Grizzlies are desperate for wins here down the stretch.  They sit in 8th place in the West but have a great chance to get out of the play-in altogether with a big finish considering just 2 games separate the 3rd through 8th seeds in the West.  It is a logjam and it's going to be a wild finish to the regular season as a result.

After a brutal schedule with four straight losses to the Thunder, Lakers, Celtics and Warriors, the Grizzlies finally got a break and ended their losing streak with a road win at Miami at the buzzer.  It's the kind of win the team can rally around to close out the season.

Now the Grizzlies get to face the Pistons, who are dealing with injuries to Cade Cunningham and Tobias Harris.  It's a tired Pistons team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 117-105 win at Toronto against the tanking Raptors last night.  The Pistons will now be playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days with a lot of travel involved in between.

The Pistons don't have a lot on the line here down the stretch.  They will either be the 5th or 6th seed in the East.  There's not much difference there as they will either face the Knicks or Pacers in the 1st round.  They don't need these games nearly as much as the Grizzlies do.  Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* Florida/Auburn Final 4 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 161.5

The Final 4 will be played in the spacious Alamodome in San Antonio that seats 70,000 fans.  These basketball games that are played in football stadiums tend to be lower scoring due to the poor shooting backgrounds.  We saw that play out in Indianapolis in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.  UNDERS went 3-0 in those three games.

The last 15 Final 4 games with a total of 160 or higher went 10-5 UNDER.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and Florida and Auburn being from the SEC and having already played once this season will know what to expect when they meet again in the Final 4.

Florida ranks 10th in adjusted defense while Auburn ranks 8th in adjusted defense.  Both teams hang their hats on defense.  The Tigers may have to do that even more now with their best player hampered as Johnni Broome suffered an elbow injury against Michigan State.  He was nursing that elbow the entire way when he returned, and there's no way he'll be 100% even though he will likely play through it.

Auburn is 5-1 UNDER in its last six games overall with 152 or fewer combined points in all six games, including 146 or fewer in five of the six.  Florida went for 152 combined points with UConn, 158 with Maryland and 163 with Texas Tech in its last three games coming in.  Florida needed 4 straight made 3-pointers and 25-of-27 from the FT line to escape with a victory in a very high-scoring final couple minutes against Texas Tech.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State Warriors PK

The Golden State Warriors are 18-4 in their last 22 games overall and have been dominant since trading for Jimmy Butler.  Despite playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, Steve Kerr stated that all his starters would play again tonight after a road win over the Lakers last night.

It's a short travel back home for Golden State, and they should be favored here instead of PK.  The Nuggets are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall and have been overvalued for weeks.  It will be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Nuggets, who are banged up right now.  Bet the Warriors Friday.

20* Nuggets/Warriors NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 235

Both the Nuggets and Warriors are trending OVER here lately.  The Warriors are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 254, 259 and 239 points.

The Nuggets get all their players back tonight after they all rested last game against San Antonio.  They have been a dead nuts OVER team as long as Jokic is healthy and playing.  They went for 238 or more combined points in three of their last four games in which that was the case.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Rockets OVER 227.5

Two teams trending OVER here down the stretch square off tonight.  And the OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Rockets and Thunder with 233 or more combined points in four of those five meetings.  The only one that went under was in the NBA Cup where both teams played max intensity defense.  They came back for 265 combined points in their most recent regular season meeting on March 3rd.

The Thunder have scored at least 119 points in eight of their last nine games overall.  The Rockets are 8-2-1 OVER in their last 11 games overall with 227 or more combined points in eight of those 11 games.  The Rockets have scored at least 121 points in four of their last five games, including 143 and 148 in two of their last three.  One of Houston's best defenders in Dillon Brooks has been suspended for this game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Bulls OVER 234.5

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace this season.  The OVER is 6-1-1 in Bulls last eight games overall with 236 or more combined points in all eight games.  That makes for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 234.5-point total.

The OVER is 5-2 in Blazers last seven games overall with 233 or more combined points in five of those seven games, including 235 or more five times.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Suns/Celtics NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on OVER 225

The Phoenix Suns are a dead nuts OVER team right now due to their terrible defense.  They are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 233 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  They have allowed 133, 148, 124 and 132 points in their last four games overall.

The Boston Celtics are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall combining for at least 227 points in three of those four games.  One of those was a 132-102 win at Phoenix for 234 combined points on March 26th.  It should be another shootout in the rematch that sails over this short 225-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Jazz/Pacers OVER 237

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight.  The Pacers rank 8th in pace 7th in offensive rating while the Jazz rank 7th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.

The Jazz have allowed at least 120 points in five of their last six games overall, including 143 to the Rockets last time out.  The Pacers are going to hang a big number on the Jazz to lead the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Warriors/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 228.5

The Los Angeles Lakers were projected to be a pretty poor defensive team with the addition of Luka Doncic and no true defensive big man on the roster.  That has come to fruition here down the stretch with the Lakers allowing 118 or more points in six of their last seven games overall.  But the Lakers have scored at least 117 points in three of their last four and are an elite offensive team when Doncic, James and Reaves are healthy.  The Lakers are 9-4 OVER in their last 13 games overall.

The Golden State Warriors are thriving offensively with Steph Curry back healthy.  They are coming off a 148-106 win at San Antonio for 254 combined points and a 134-125 win at Memphis for 259 combined points. 

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings and 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the Warriors and Lakers.  They have combined for at least 223 points in all nine meetings, including 232 or more in five of their last seven.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Chattanooga/UC-Irvine NIT Championship ANNIHILATOR on Chattanooga +5

Chattanooga is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the NIT with 4 outright wins as underdogs.  What more do the Mocs need to do to get some respect? Now they are 5-point underdogs to UC-Irvine in the NIT Championship Game, and I fully expect them to win outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

While Chattanooga had to play 3 of its 4 games on the road to get here, UC-Irvine benefitted from getting 3 home games to make the semifinals.  And it couldn't have been a much easier schedule with unimpressive wins over Northern Colorado by 10, Jacksonville State by 5 and UAB by 4.  And the Anteaters were fortunate to get a big comeback to beat North Texas by 2 in the semifinals.  So the only team they beat by more than this 5-point margin was Northern Colorado, which ranks 125th in Kenpom.

So UC-Irvine's 4 wins have come by a total of 21 points despite being favored in every game except being 1-point dogs to North Texas.  Chattanooga's 4 wins have come by a total of 30 points despite being an underdog in all 4 contests.  Bet Chattanooga Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets +13.5

The Brooklyn Nets refuse to tank and have been competitive as a result here down the stretch.  They are exactly the type of team you can make money on.  The Nets are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall including consecutive upset wins over the Wizards and Mavericks.

This looks like a letdown spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves.  They are coming off their wild 140-139 (2 OT) road win at Denver where they won despite a 60-point triple-double from Nikola Jokic.  Keep in mind the Nuggets were without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. for that contest.

The Timberwolves have beaten the Nets by more than 11 points just once in their last 12 meetings, making for an 11-1 system backing the Nets pertaining to this 13.5-point spread.  This game will be much more competitive than this line indicates.  Bet the Nets Thursday.

20* Grizzlies/Heat TNT No-Brainer on OVER 223.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace this season.  They play fast with or without JA Morant, but Morant just returned from a 6-game absence.  The Grizzlies and their opponents have combined for at least 236 points in eight of their last 12 games overall.  This total of 223.5 is very low for a game involving the Grizzlies right now.

The Miami Heat are going through their best stretch of offense all season during their current 6-game winning streak.  They have scored 118 or more points in five of those six wins.  That includes 124 against the Celtics last night, a Boston team that is one of the best defensive squads in the NBA.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Nebraska/Georgetown FS1 No-Brainer on OVER 152

We saw NIT OVERs thrive and now we are seeing College Basketball Crown OVERS thrive.  OVERS are 5-3 in the College Basketball Crown Tournament and 6-2 if you bet early.  Defense tends to be optional, and players just play freely in these lesser tournaments.  We got a good early number here on Nebraska/Georgetown OVER 152.

Georgetown beat Washington State 85-82 for 167 combined points in its tournament opener on Monday.  This despite the Hoyas only shooting 40.8% from the field.  The Hoyas have had to go more small ball without their best big man down the stretch, and they are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall.  They rank 117th in adjusted tempo so they like to play fast as well.

Nebraska is coming off a 86-78 win over Arizona State and 164 combined points.  Neither team really lit it up shooting wise, either.  The Huskers also play faster than your average team ranking 149th in adjusted tempo.  We will see more offensive fireworks in the shooter-friendly MGM Grand Garden arena tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas Mavericks -3

The Dallas Mavericks are fighting hard to make the playoffs.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall to sit in 9th place in the West.  They are just 0.5 games ahead of 10th place Sacramento and 2 games ahead of Phoenix.  So they are basically playing playoff basketball right now and motivated.

A big reason for their success is the return of Anthony Davis.  But they also recently got PJ Washington back from injury, and now both Lively and Gafford are back.  The chemistry should just keep getting better and better with this team as they close out the regular season.

But this is more of a fade of Atlanta than it is a play on Dallas.  This is a very tough spot for the Hawks, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 127-113 home loss to the Portland Trail Blazers last night.  That was such a bad result considering the Blazers were without 3 of their best players in Simons, Henderson and Grant.

Trae Young and Dyson Daniels both played over 36 minutes for the Hawks last night.  The Mavericks have won three consecutive meetings with the Hawks and are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.  Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* Knicks/Cavs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -10.5

The New York Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a lackluster 105-91 home win over the tanking Philadelphia 76ers last night.  The 76ers were sitting pretty much everyone but Grimes and still were in the game until the final minutes.

Because it was a close game in the 4th quarter, five players for the Knicks played at least 32 minutes last night.  This team is already short-handed as it is playing without their top three PG's in Brunson, McBride and Payne, while also having Karl-Anthony Towns being a late scratch due to a knee injury.

The Knicks will not only be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but their 6th game in 9 days which is about as tough as it gets in their current state.  They must play a rested Cleveland Cavaliers team that has had the last two days off.

I've been fading the Cavaliers a lot lately because they have pretty much had the No. 1 seed locked up.  But their lead has now been cut to 4 games by the Celtics with 7 games left.  I think we see them play with more urgency now until they lock up the No. 1 seed, especially coming in on two days' rest tonight.

Unlike the Knicks, the Cavaliers are fully healthy right now.  They beat the Knicks 142-105 in their lone home meeting earlier this season.  And that was even with Brunson, Towns, McBride and Payne in the lineup.  They will at least be without three of these guys in the rematch, and I wouldn't be surprised if Towns sits again as well.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

15* Warriors/Grizzlies NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 236

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace this season.  They play fast with or without JA Morant, but Morant just returned from a 6-game absence.  The Grizzlies and their opponents have combined for at least 236 points in seven of their last 11 games overall.

The Golden State Warriors are thriving offensively with Steph Curry back healthy.  They are coming off a 148-106 win at San Antonio for 254 combined points.  They won't mind getting in a shootout with the Grizzlies tonight.

In fact, these games always tend to be shootouts.  The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 234 or more combined points in all four meetings.  They have gone for 237 or more combined points in six of their last nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Bulls OVER 235

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 24th in defensive rating.  They are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 236 or more combined points in all seven games, including 262 with the Thunder last night.  They have scored at least 117 points in all seven games and are thriving offensively with Coby White and Josh Giddey running the show.

The Toronto Raptors rank 11th in pace and won't mind getting up and down with the Bulls tonight.  They are scoring an average of 115.8 points per game during their current 4-game winning streak.  The Bulls will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors +5

The Toronto Raptors continue to play hard almost every night.  That is evidenced by the fact that the Raptors are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  That includes 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with the four wins coming by an average of 16.8 points per game.

I love the spot for the Raptors tonight.  They had yesterday off and will be out for revenge from an OT loss to the Bulls in their last meeting.  They have actually lost all three meetings with the Bulls this season, so they'll be extra motivated to avoid the season sweep.

This is a terrible spot for the Bulls.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 145-117 loss in Oklahoma City last night.  This is probably a very tired team right now after going to the wire with the Mavericks in a 1-point loss and the Bulls in a 2-point win in their two games prior.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Atlanta Hawks -5

The Atlanta Hawks are playing their best basketball of the season right now and motivated to improve their playoff positioning to assure they give themselves their best chance of making the playoffs through the play-in.  The Hawks are 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall and coming off a 145-124 road win at Milwaukee as 4-point dogs.

The Portland Trail Blazers made a valiant run at the play-in, but now it appears they are calling off the dogs.  The Blazers are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and haven't even been competitive in any of them with all four losses coming by 11 points or more.  They are without Grant and Henderson and Simons is questionable.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Blazers/Hawks OVER 236.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace this season.  The Hawks are 6-0-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 234 or more combined points in all seven games.  In fact, they have gone for at least 233 combined points with their opponents in 15 of their last 16 games overall.

The Blazers have clearly let go of the rope defensively.  The OVER is 4-1 in Blazers last five games overall with 233 or more combined points in four of those five games.  They have allowed 129, 128 and 122 points in three of their last four games coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Rockets/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 223.5

The Los Angeles Lakers were projected to be a pretty poor defensive team with the addition of Luka Doncic and no true defensive big man on the roster.  That has come to fruition here down the stretch as the Lakers allowed 118 points to Milwaukee, 146 to Chicago, 118 to Orlando, 119 to Indiana, 119 to Chicago and 127 to Memphis for six consecutive games of allowing 118 points or more.  

The Lakers are 9-3 OVER in their last 12 games overall.  They are thriving offensively with a healthy James, Doncic and Reaves.  They have scored 120, 117 and 134 points in their last three games since James returned.  The OVER is 4-1 in their last five games with 236 or more combined points in four of the five, and 224 against a dead nuts under team in the Magic.

The Rockets are also really trending OVER here of late.  They are 7-1-1 OVER in their last nine games overall and fully healthy right now.  The Rockets have scored at least 116 points in seven of those nine games, and 121 or more in five of them.  The OVER is 2-0 in two meetings this season with 234 and 254 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -9

The Dallas Mavericks are fighting hard to make the playoffs.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  A big reason for their success is the return of Anthony Davis.  But they also recently got PJ Washington back from injury, and now both Lively and Gafford are expected to make their returns tonight.

The Mavericks host a tanking Brooklyn Nets team that have gone 1-6 SU in their last seven games with their only win coming at Washington by 3 against a Wizards team that is also tanking.  The Nets lost by 31, 30 and 19 points in their previous three games.  That 19-point loss came at home to the Mavericks, and it will be more of the same in the rematch tonight.  The Nets will be without Cam Johnson, Clowney and Sharpe tonight.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

20* Bulls/Thunder NBA No-Brainer on OVER 238

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 24th in defensive rating.  They are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 236 or more combined points in all six games, including 239 or more in five of them.  They have scored at least 119 points in all six games and are thriving offensively with Coby White and Josh Giddey running the show.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are also a dead nuts OVER team ranking 8th in pace and 4th in offensive rating.  The Thunder have scored at least 121 points in six of their last seven games overall.  I expect the Thunder to get at least 130 and the Bulls at least 115 tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Celtics/Grizzlies TNT No-Brainer on OVER 235.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace this season.  They play fast with or without JA Morant, but Morant just returned from a 6-game absence last time out in a 134-127 shootout loss to the Lakers that saw 261 combined points.  The Grizzlies and their opponents have combined for at least 236 points in seven of their last 10 games overall.

The Boston Celtics are almost fully healthy right now and thriving offensively scoring 121 or more points in four of their last five games overall.  The Grizzlies beat the Celtics 127-121 for 248 combined points in their first and only meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kings/Pacers OVER 233

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 7th in the NBA in pace this season.  The OVER is 3-0 in Pacers last three games overall combining for 239 points with the Lakers, 271 with the Wizards and 243 with the Thunder.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Pacers right now.

The Sacramento Kings are fully healthy and certainly more of an OVER team when that's the case.  They have plenty of offensive firepower with LaVine, DeRozan, Sabonis and Monk.  And they are a very poor defensive team allowing 119 or more points in eight of their last 11 games.  The OVER is 8-5 in Kings last 13 games overall.

The Kings and Pacers have combined for 247 or more points in three of their last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors -4

The Toronto Raptors continue to play hard almost every night.  That is evidenced by the fact that the Raptors are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They are also pretty healthy right now with Barrett and Barnes all expected to suit up, and they have shown off their tremendous depth battling injuries all season.

The Philadelphia 76ers are in full blown tank mode going 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  The only games they were somewhat competitive in were a 5-point home loss to the Wizards and an 8-point loss at San Antonio, which are two of the worst teams in the NBA.  They also lost by 23 at home to Miami, by 13 at Atlanta, by 13 at New Orleans and by 33 at OKC.

Making matters worse for the 76ers is the fact that they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after that 23-point loss to Miami last night.  They have 8 players listed out tonight and their are 8 of their best players.  Bet the Raptors Sunday.

20* CBB Sunday Elite 8 Total DOMINATOR on Michigan State/Auburn UNDER 150

Two elite defensive teams square off in the Elite 8 Sunday when Michigan State takes on Auburn in the South Region final.  This profiles as a defensive battle with points very hard to come by, especially for Michigan State.

The Spartans rank 4th in the country in adjusted defense and have been riding defense and rebounding to the Elite 8.  They have gotten away with just how poor of a shooting team they are, largely due to their soft schedule to this point.  The Spartans rank 318th in 3-point percentage at 31.1% this season.  They rank just 329th in 3-point rate at 32.8%, so at least they know they shouldn't be taking a ton of them.  That also allows them to set their defense with fewer long rebounds.

Auburn ranks 8th in the country in adjusted defense and 11th in effective FG percentage.  The Tigers have great defensive guards across the board, and they have two great defensive big men inside led by Broome and Cardwell.  Nothing will come easy for the Spartans in this one.  I also like the fact that neither team really looks to push the pace as both rank middle of the pack in tempo.

Michigan State is a dead nuts UNDER team going 25-11 UNDER in all games this season.  They are 14-4 UNDER in their last 18 games overall with 149 or fewer combined points in 13 of those 18 games.  That includes 143 with Ole Miss and 134 with New Mexico in their last two games coming in.

Auburn has been an UNDER team since the start of the NCAA Tournament.  The Tigers are 4-1 UNDER in their last five games overall with 146 or fewer combined points in four of those five games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Michigan State/Auburn South Region No-Brainer on Auburn -5

It's amazing how good Auburn can be when they are dialed in.  The Tigers clearly knew they were going to be a No. 1 seed regardless of how they performed in the SEC Tournament and it showed.  They were also lackluster in their NCAA Tournament opener against Alabama State winning by 20 as 31.5-point favorites.

The Tigers started slow against UConn trailing by 2 at halftime.  They showed what they were capable of down the stretch, pulling away for a 82-70 victory as 9-point favorites.  They did the same thing against Michigan, trailing by 8 points with about 12 minutes left.  That's when they decided their season was on the line, and they locked in from that point outscoring the Wolverines by 21 the rest of the way to win 78-65 and cover as 9-point favorites.

If Auburn is anywhere near at its best for 40 minutes, it will crush Michigan State.  The only hope for the Spartans to keep this game competitive would be an off game for Auburn, and considering a trip to the Final 4 is on the line I expect we get their best effort.

Michigan State needed late surges to beat both New Mexico by 8 and Ole Miss by 3 the last two rounds.  The Spartans have been getting by with hustle, defense and rebounding because they rank just 318th in the country in 3-point shooting at 31.1%.  This is where their lack of shooting finally hurts them as they can't hang with a team the caliber of Auburn without it.

Ole Miss is a common opponent and Auburn went 3-0 against Ole Miss this season winning those three meeting by a total of 45 points, or by an average of 15 points per game.  Michigan State pretty much trailed Ole Miss the entire way and was life and death.  This is a big step up in class for the Spartans against an Auburn team with no weaknesses ranking 3rd in adjusted offense and 8th in adjusted defense.  It's also a home game for the Tigers basically less than two hours from campus in Atlanta.  Bet Auburn Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Cavs OVER 229.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in eight of their last nine games.  The only team that held them below that number was the Thunder, who are the best defensive team in the league.  The OVER is 7-3 in Clippers last 10 games overall.  They have gone for 232 or more combined points in four of their last five games coming in.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They rank 1st in offensive efficiency and 10th in pace.  They have gone 48-26 OVER in all games this season.  The OVER is 6-1 in Cavs last seven games overall with 232 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  This total of 229.5 is too short for a game involving these two teams today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Alabama/Duke East Region No-Brainer on OVER 171.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted tempo, 4th in average length of offensive possession and 4th in adjusted offense.  Alabama and its opponents have combined for at least 166 points in 12 of their last 14 games overall.  The two games they didn't came against two slow-paced, defensive-minded teams in Tennessee and St. Mary's.

Now Alabama plays a team that won't mind running and gunning with them in Duke, which has really upped its tempo here down the stretch.  The Blue Devils have been a dead nuts OVER team down the stretch when Cooper Flagg has been healthy.  The Blue Devils are 10-1 OVER in their last 11 games in which Flagg has started.

Alabama has scored at least 80 points in 17 of its last 19 games, including 90 or more in 12 of those 19 games.  The Crimson Tide beat BYU 113-88 last game for 201 combined points and shot 25-of-51 from 3-point range.  They aren't going to change how they play against Duke.

Duke has scored at least 78 points in each of the last 12 games in which Flagg has started.  They are averaging 94.5 PPG in games in which Flagg has started and finished since mid-February.  The Blue Devils hung 100 on Arizona in a 100-93 win for 193 combined points.  They won't mind getting in an up-tempo game with Alabama, either.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Pacers/Thunder NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 237.5

Both the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers like to push the tempo, so this game should see a ton of possessions to help us cash this OVER 237.5 ticket.  The Pacers rank 7th in pace this season while the Thunder rank 8th in pace.

The Pacers have scored at least 119 points in six of their last eight games overall while going 5-3 OVER during this stretch.  The Thunder have scored at least 118 points in 16 of their last 19 games overall while going 11-8 OVER during this stretch.

The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings with 232 or more combined points in eight of those nine meetings, including 238 or more in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls ML -135

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now as they are fighting hard to make the playoffs.  The Bulls are 9-2 SU & 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their two losses coming by 3 at Houston and by 6 at Phoenix.

They upset the Lakers as 4-point home dogs, upset the Nuggets by 10 as 2.5-point road dogs, upset the Lakers by 31 as 10.5-point road dogs, upset the Kings by 12 as 7.5-point road dogs, beat the Jazz by 14 as 4.5-point road favorites, beat the Nets by 6 as 2-point home favorites, upset the Pacers by 18 as 4-point home dogs, upset the Heat by 5 as 5-point road dogs and upset the Magic by 2 as 8.5-point road dogs.  They have beaten a lot of playoff teams during this stretch.

The Bulls are showing what they are capable of when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They are in a great rest spot playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They have a ton of confidence right now and want to keep this momentum going, especially when they are fighting for positioning in the all-important play-in in the East with the 4 teams separated by a total of 3 games.

The Dallas Mavericks remain an injury-ravaged team with 10 players on the injury report, and they remain without Irving, Lively and Gafford with PJ Washington questionable as well.  They have done a good job of fighting through these injuries, but I don't like this spot for them tonight.  The Mavericks will be playing their 4th road game in 6 days tonight, and the Bulls rank 3rd in pace and will test their tired legs.  Bet the Bulls on the Money Line Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Grizzlies OVER 237

The Los Angeles Lakers were projected to be a pretty poor defensive team with the addition of Luka Doncic and no true defensive big man on the roster.  That has come to fruition here down the stretch with the Lakers going 4-8 SU in their last 12 games, including 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five while allowing 118 points to Milwaukee, 146 to Chicago, 118 to Orlando, 119 to Indiana and 119 to Chicago.

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace this season.  They play fast with or without JA Morant, but there's a good chance he returns from a 6-game absence as he participated in shootaround this morning.  They are about as healthy as they have been all season if he returns.

The Lakers are 8-3 OVER in their last 11 games overall.  The Grizzlies and their opponents have combined for at least 236 points in six of their last nine games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Memphis Grizzlies ML -135

It's time to 'buy low' on the Memphis Grizzlies.  They have gone 8-12 SU & 3-16-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  That performance led to the firing of Taylor Jenkins, and I always like backing teams in their 1st game with an interim head coach.  They tend to be inspired with a new voice in the locker room, and I expect that to be the case for the Grizzlies today.

JA Morant participated in shootaround after missing the past six games with a hamstring injury.  I'm expecting him to return.  I also like the fact that the Grizzlies have a big rest advantage over the Lakers.  The Grizzlies will be fresh and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 8 days.

The Los Angeles Lakers were projected to be a pretty poor defensive team with the addition of Luka Doncic and no true defensive big man on the roster.  That has come to fruition here down the stretch with the Lakers going 4-8 SU in their last 12 games, including 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five while allowing 118 points to Milwaukee, 146 to Chicago, 118 to Orlando, 119 to Indiana and 119 to Chicago.

A big reason for the Lakers' struggles is just how tired they are right now after a brutal schedule in terms of rest that saw them have to play 6 games in 8 days from March 13-March 20.  The Lakers are coming off two dog fights beating the Pacers at the on Wednesday and coming back to lose to the Bulls at the buzzer on Thursday.  It will be their 11th game in 17 days, which is far and away the toughest rest situation any team has faced all season.   Bet the Grizzlies on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Sweet 16 Total DOMINATOR on Michigan/Auburn OVER 151

Michigan really profiles as an OVER team.  The Wolverines rank 58th in adjusted tempo and 22nd in average length of offensive possession.  They also rank 324th in turnover rate, committing turnovers on 20% of their possessions to create easy scoring opportunities for their opponents.

Auburn also likes to play with pace ranking 146th in adjusted tempo and 132nd in average length of offensive possession.  The Tigers do everything under control and get good looks each time down the court, ranking 3rd in adjusted offense.

Michigan went for 170 combined points with Texas A&M last game despite neither team shooting well from the floor, especially the Aggies who shot 38% from the floor and 26% from 3.  Auburn went for 152 combined points with Creighton against a Bluejays team that likes to play at a much slower tempo than Michigan does.

Auburn is 11-5 OVER in its last 16 games with 152 or more combined points in 11 of those 16 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Michigan/Auburn South Region No-Brainer on Auburn -7.5

Michigan is the most overrated team left in the tournament.  The Wolverines have a negative point differential despite winning 13 of their last 17 games.  They were simply fortunate in close games all season, and they've won just two games by more than 6 points since January 12th.

Michigan was once again fortunate to escape with a 68-65 win over UC-San Diego in the Round of 64.  They had the officials on their side when UC-San Diego's best player in Tait-Jones fouled out and was in foul trouble all game only playing 24 minutes thanks to a couple questionable calls.  Michigan only won by 3 despite a rare poor shooting performance by the Tritons going just 7-of-30 (23%) from 3-point range.

Michigan was then able to overcome a double-digit deficit in the 2H to beat Texas A&M in the Round of 32.  The Aggies are a poor shooting team and it came back to bite them hitting just 38% from the field and 26% from 3-point range against the Wolverines.

Now the Wolverines face a complete team in Auburn, and this is where their luck runs out.  The Tigers rank 3rd in adjusted offense and 12th in adjusted defense.  They take care of the ball ranking 5th in turnover rate on offense turning it over on only 13% of possessions.  That's going to be the difference in this game.

Michigan ranks 324th in turnover percentage on offense turning it over on nearly 20% of possessions.  Auburn will capitalize on those opportunities, and I don't think Michigan has what it takes to keep up in what I expect to be a shootout.  This will also feel like a home game for the Tigers being played in Atlanta less than two hours from campus.  Bet Auburn Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Nuggets OVER 239.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Utah Jazz visit the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets rank 6th in pace and 3rd in offensive rating while the Jazz rank 6th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.

The OVER is 7-1 in Nuggets last eight games overall with 244 or more combined points four times.  The OVER is 2-0 in Jazz last two games including 243 combined points with Memphis.  The Jazz and Nuggets combined for 253 points in their most recent meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Golden State Warriors -14.5

The Golden State Warriors are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games overall and motivated to avoid the play-in in the West.  They are also motivated coming off one of their worst losses of the season at Miami.  They will be fresh and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight.

The New Orleans Pelicans are tanking right now.  They have recent losses to the Rockets by 29, the Magic by 20, the Pistons by 46 and the Timberwolves by 41.  And now they have decided to rest McCollum and Williamson, which means they will be without six of their top seven scorers tonight.  What a mess.  Bet the Warriors Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Toronto Raptors -5.5

The Toronto Raptors continue to play hard almost every night.  That is evidenced by the fact that the Raptors are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are also pretty healthy right now with Quickley, Poeltl and Barnes all expected to suit up.

The Charlotte Hornets are clearly in tank mode.  They have gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall including four games where they weren't even competitive losing by 35 to the Clippers, 32 to the Hawks, 35 to the Thunder and 17 to the Heat.  They have elected to rest their best player in La'Melo Ball tonight as well.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Clippers -11.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in seven of their last eight games.  The only team that held them below that number was the Thunder, who are the best defensive team in the league.  And they played the Thunder to the wire in a 2-point loss last time out.

The Clippers have surrounded that loss to the Thunder with six blowout wins in their last seven games.  They beat the Knicks by 13, Miami by 15 and Atlanta by 23 on the road, while also crushing Charlotte by 35, Cleveland by 13 and Memphis by 20 at home.  The Clippers should be fresh playing just their 4rd game in 9 days and just their 2nd game in 5 days.

The Brooklyn Nets look to have thrown in the towel and are in full blown tank mode.  They have lost five straight and eight of their last nine coming in.  The last two losses were very concerning and showed their lack of effort, losing by 19 at home to the Mavericks as 3-point dogs and then by 30 at home to the Raptors as 2.5-point favorites.  It won't go any better for them tonight against a surging, motivated Los Angeles team.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

15* Kentucky/Tennessee Midwest Region ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -4

Tennessee lost both meetings to Kentucky during the regular season.  The ultimate revenge would be to knock out the Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament, and I fully expect the Vols to get their revenge in blowout fashion today.

The shooting in the first two meetings was very fluky and heavily in Kentucky's favor.  While Tennessee went 14-of-63 (22.2%) from 3-point range in the two meetings, Kentucky remarkably went 24-of-48 (50%) from 3-point range.  That was the difference.  Jax Robinson had 17 points on 4-of-9 from 3 in one of the meetings, and the Wildcats are now without Robinson and much less potent offensively.

Let's also look at this from a line value perspective.  Tennessee was a 10.5-point favorite at home and a 4-point favorite on the road in the first two meetings.  Now the Vols are a 4-point favorite on a neutral, which is too big of an adjustment in Kentucky's favor.  The value is clearly on the Vols tonight.  Bet Tennessee Friday.

20* Arizona/Duke East Region No-Brainer on OVER 153

Duke has been a dead nuts OVER team down the stretch when Cooper Flagg has been healthy.  The Blue Devils are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games in which Flagg has started.  They have gone for at least 151 combined points with their opponents in seven of those 10 games.

Arizona really profiles as an OVER team ranking 49th in adjusted tempo and 13th in adjusted offense.  The Wildcats have gone 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall with 158 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  This is a pretty low total for a game involving the Wildcats, who went for 170 combined points with Oregon last game.  

Arizona has scored at least 83 points in seven of its last 10 games.  Duke has scored at least 78 points in each of the last 11 games in which Flagg has started.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Bulls OVER 239

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 24th in defensive rating this season.  They have gone 8-2 SU in their last 10 games overall largely due to how well they are playing offensively, scoring 111 or more points in all 10 games and 121 or more six times.  The OVER is 4-0 in Bulls last four games with 144 or more combined points in all four games.

The Los Angeles Lakers were projected to be a pretty poor defensive team with the addition of Luka Doncic and no true defensive big man on the roster.  That has come to fruition here down the stretch with the Lakers going 4-7 SU in their last 11 games, including 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four while allowing 118 points to Milwaukee, 146 to Chicago, 118 to Orlando and 119 to Indiana.

The Lakers are still a pretty good offensive team, and they have gone 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall. That includes their 146-115 loss to the Bulls less than a week ago that saw 261 combined points.  The OVER is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings in this series.  It should be yet another shootout tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +3.5

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now as they are fighting hard to make the playoffs.  The Bulls are 8-2 SU & 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their two losses coming by 3 at Houston and by 6 at Phoenix.

They upset the Nuggets by 10 as 2.5-point road dogs, upset the Lakers by 31 as 10.5-point road dogs, upset the Kings by 12 as 7.5-point road dogs, beat the Jazz by 14 as 4.5-point road favorites, beat the Nets by 6 as 2-point home favorites, upset the Pacers by 18 as 4-point home dogs, upset the Heat by 5 as 5-point road dogs and upset the Magic by 2 as 8.5-point road dogs.  They have beaten a lot of playoff teams during this stretch.

The Bulls are showing what they are capable of when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They are in a great rest spot coming in on two days' rest after last beating the Nuggets on Monday.

The Los Angeles Lakers were projected to be a pretty poor defensive team with the addition of Luka Doncic and no true defensive big man on the roster.  That has come to fruition here down the stretch with the Lakers going 4-7 SU in their last 11 games, including 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four while allowing 118 points to Milwaukee, 146 to Chicago, 118 to Orlando and 119 to Indiana.

A big reason for the Lakers' struggles is just how tired they are right now after a brutal schedule in terms of rest that saw them have to play 6 games in 8 days from March 13-March 20.  The Lakers will now be playing another 2nd of a back-to-back after a narrow 120-119 win in Indiana last night.  It will be their 10th game in 15 days, which is far and away the toughest rest situation any team has faced all season.  Bet the Bulls Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Heat OVER 227

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in pace this season.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in Hawks last five games overall going for 235 or more combined points in all five games.  That includes games against Brooklyn, Charlotte and Houston, which are three dead nuts under teams that play slow.

Miami fits the profile of a dead nuts under team that also plays slow.  But the books have adjusted this total down too much for it.  This total of 227 is too low for a game involving Atlanta.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 228 or more combined points in three of the four.  That includes 240 combined points in their most recent meeting on February 26th.  It should be more of the same in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Maryland/Florida West Region ANNIHILATOR on Maryland +6.5

Maryland is 27-8 this season with all eight losses coming by 6 points or less.  So they haven't lost a single game all season by more than 6 points, making for a 35-0 system backing the Terrapins pertaining to this 6.5-point spread.

The Terrapins finally got some good fortune to go their way in close games with a buzzer-beater 72-71 win over Colorado State.  I think the betting public is looking at that as a poor result, but I've been riding Colorado State this entire time during their 11-1 SU & 12-0 ATS run to close out the season.  The Rams are much better than they get credit for.

The more concerning result was Florida escaping with a 77-75 win over UConn as 9-point favorites last round.  The Gators failed to cover the spread in each of their first two NCAA Tournament games, and you're paying a tax to back them still after winning the SEC Tournament.

I like the fact that Maryland played in Seattle last round and decided to stay out West instead of flying back to Baltimore.  The Terrapins have had some bonding time in San Francisco prior to this game.  The tougher travel spot is Florida, which played in North Carolina on Sunday and now has to fly clear out West to San Francisco for this one.  That's a lot of travel in a short amount of time, and I don't think the Gators will be nearly as fresh or prepared as the Terrapins will be tonight as a result.  Bet Maryland Thursday.

25* NCAA Tournament TOTAL OF THE YEAR on BYU/Alabama OVER 173

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted tempo, 3rd in average length of offensive possession and 4th in adjusted offense.  Alabama and its opponents have combined for at least 166 points in 11 of their last 13 games overall.  The two games they didn't came against two slow-paced, defensive-minded teams in Tennessee and St. Mary's.

Now Alabama plays a team that won't mind running and gunning with them in BYU.  The Cougars rank 9th in adjusted offense and 6th in effective FG percentage.  They rank 21st in 3-point rate shooting 3-pointers on 48% of their possessions.  Alabama ranks 49th in that same category hoisting 3-pointers on 46% of possessions.  So there will be a ton of long rebounds and opportunities for both teams to run.

BYU has scored at least 80 points in nine of its last 11 games, including 91 or more points in five of its last 10 games with the OVER going 8-2 in those 10 games.  Alabama has scored at least 80 points in 16 of its last 18 games, including 90 or more in 11 of those 18 games.  I think Alabama pushed 100 in this game and BYU keeps up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Celtics/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +3.5

The Phoenix Suns have a lot to play for right now.  They are just 0.5 games ahead of the Dallas Mavericks for the final play-in spot in the West.  And with the way they have been playing recently, they are clearly fighting hard to make the playoffs.

The Suns have gone 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They upset the Clippers, took the Nuggets to OT on the road, only lost by 2 at Memphis, crushed the Kings by 16 at home, crushed the Raptors by 40 at home, covered in a 6-point home win over the surging Bulls, upset the Cavaliers by 11 as 8.5-point home dogs, and beat the Bucks by 2 at home.

The Suns are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They are without Bradley Beal, but the chemistry has actually been better for them without him.  You could see how much their win against the Bucks meant to them with Kevin Durant hugging all his teammates after.  I just like the way this team is playing right now, and no question they'll be up for this game with the defending champs coming to town.

The Celtics lost their best player in Jayson Tatum to an ankle injury last game and is doubtful for this game and will likely miss at least a few games.  Boston will now be playing its 4th road game in 6 days.  The Celtics have questionable motivation right now as they are pretty much locked in to the No. 2 seed in the East.  I don't think they should be favorite on the road over the surging Suns without Tatum.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

20* Lakers/Pacers ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 233.5

The Lakers just got LeBron James back from injury and are one of the best offensive teams in the league with James, Doncic and Reeves running the show.  The problem is their defensive warts have really shown of late.

The OVER is 7-2 in Lakers last nine games overall.  They have allowed 118 points or more in five of their last eight games.  They gave up 146 to the Bulls the other night in James' first game back from injury.

It won't get any easier for them against the Pacers, who recently got Tyrese Haliburton back from injury and are at full strength right now.  The Pacers rank 7th in pace and 9th in offensive rating.

The Pacers and Lakers have combined for at least 231 points in six of their last nine meetings.  That includes a 124-117 win by the Lakers for 241 combined points in their 1st meeting this season on February 8th.  James and Doncic both did not play in that meeting.  It should be another shootout in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Clippers ML -122

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in six of their last seven games.  The only team that held them below that number was the Thunder, who are the best defensive team in the league.  And they played the Thunder to the wire in a 2-point loss last time out.

The Clippers were coming off off five straight blowout wins beating Miami by 15 and Atlanta by 23 on the road, and crushing Charlotte by 35, Cleveland by 13 and Memphis by 20 at home.  The Clippers should be fresh playing just their 3rd game in 7 days and coming in on two days' rest.

A big reason I'm fading the Knicks is because they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the Mavericks last night, who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back themselves.  Four starters played at least 33 minutes for the Knicks.  

They are without their top two PG's in Brunson and McBride, and I just don't trust them that much until Brunson returns.  The Knicks are 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois State ML -135

Illinois State has a sneaky rest advantage over Cleveland State.  Not only were they off from March 7th until March 23rd, but the Redbirds also got a day in between their 78-70 win over Presbyterian as 5-point favorites on Sunday and their 78-73 win over Incarnate Word as 6.5-point favorites on Tuesday.

I don't think the Redbirds are tired at all, and if anything they have shaken off the rust of being off for over two weeks and will be better off for it playing their 3rd game in 4 days here.  Meanwhile, Cleveland State will be playing for a 3rd consecutive day after beating Queens-Charlotte 88-73 on Monday and Florida Gulf Coast 72-65 on Tuesday.  Not to mention, the Redbirds got to play the early game last night while the Vikings had to play the late game, which only adds to the rest advantage for Illinois State especially with an early 5:00 EST tip tonight.

Illinois State is far and away the superior offensive team in this matchup.  The Redbirds rank 87th in adjusted offense and 18th in effective FG percentage.  The Vikings rank just 213th in adjusted offense and 246th in effective FG percentage.

The Vikings rely on forcing turnovers (9th, 22.2%) and grabbing offensive rebounds (44th, 34.6%).  Well, that makes this a great matchup for the Redbirds.  Illinois State ranks 90th in turnover rate on offense turning it over on only 15.9% of possessions.  Better yet, the Redbirds rank 11th in the country allowing offensive rebounds on only 24.9% of opponent possessions.  Bet Illinois State on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers +7

The Portland Trail Blazers continue to play hard to try and make the playoffs.  They are only 3 games behind the Suns for the final play-in spot.  The Blazers have gone 19-12 SU & 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games overall.  

The Blazers are rested and will be playing just their 6th game in 13 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight hosting the East's No. 1 seed Cleveland Cavaliers, a team that is struggling to find motivation right now.

The Cavaliers are pretty much locked into the No. 1 seed in the East.  They are playing like it going 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone win coming against tanking Utah.  Now the Cavaliers have elected to rest Donovan Mitchell playing their 5th road game in 8 days.

Portland wants revenge from a 133-129 (OT) loss at Cleveland on March 2nd in their first meeting this season.  The Blazers blew a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter in that game.  The Cavs were without Mitchell in that one as well, and the Blazers can hang with the Cavs without Mitchell as they have proven once already.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

20* North Texas/Oklahoma State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Oklahoma State PK

Oklahoma State quietly has one of the better home-court advantages in the country this season.  The Cowboys have gone 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games wit their only losses coming to Arizona and Texas Tech.  They upset Iowa State and Cincinnati during this stretch.

The Cowboys have been impressive in the NIT thus far crushing Wichita State 89-79 at home and upsetting SMU as 8.5-point road dogs.  That win over Wichita State is significant here because it gives them a common opponent with North Texas, who played the Shockers twice in AAC play.

North Texas only beat Wichita State by 2 at home and by 4 on the road in their two meetings this season.  The Mean Green have a great home-court advantage and used it with lackluster wins by 11 over Furman and by 2 over Arkansas State to get here.  But now the Mean Green are on the road where they aren't nearly as dominant.

The Big 12 is much stronger than the AAC and I'll gladly side with the Big 12 team here at a PK when I believe the Cowboys should be favored.  Bet Oklahoma State Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Hawks +8.5

The Atlanta Hawks are quietly playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall to try and improve their playoff positioning.

The Houston Rockets are also playing well, but they just had their 9-game winning streak snapped with a 116-111 upset home loss to the Denver Nuggets without Nikola Jokic last time out.  I always like fading teams after having an extending winning streak snapped because there tends to be a hangover effect.

It's not like the Rockets are blowing anyone out, either.  Each of their last four wins have come by 8 points or fewer and against suspect competition in the Bulls, 76ers, Magic and Heat.  This is a step up in class for the Rockets tonight against a surging Atlanta team.  

The Hawks are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Rockets.  All three losses came by 6 points or fewer.  In fact, the Hawks haven't lost by more than 7 points to the Rockets in any of their last 10 meetings, making for a 10-0 system backing Atlanta pertaining to this 8.5-point spread.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Rockets OVER 235

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in pace this season.  The OVER is 4-0 in Hawks last four games overall going for 236 or more combined points in all four games.  That includes game against Brooklyn and Charlotte, which are two dead nuts under teams.

The Houston Rockets are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall.  They are fully healthy right now and a dangerous offensive team when that's the case.  They won't mind getting up and down with the Hawks tonight.

The Hawks and Rockets have combined for at least 235 points in five of their last seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Illinois State/Incarnate Word OVER 148

Illinois State has been a dead nuts OVER team this season.  The Redbirds are 20-13 OVER in all games.  They rank 84th in adjusted offense and 15th in effective FG percentage, so they are elite offensively.  The problem is defense, where the Redbirds rank 237th in adjusted defense and 306th in effective FG percentage defense.

Incarnate Word profiles similarly where the Cardinals are much better on offense than they are on defense.  The Cardinals rank 151st in adjusted offense and 121st in effective FG percentage offensively, while ranking just 294th in adjusted defense and 239th in effective FG percentage defensively.

Both teams are a combined 3-0 OVER in this CBI Tournament.  Illinois State went for 148 combined points with Presbyterian with a 142.5-point total.  Incarnate Word sailed OVER the total in its first two games going for 177 combined points with Manhattan with a 147.5-point total and 158 combined points with Jacksonville with a 142-point total.  It will be more of the same here tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Bucks/Suns NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -2.5

The Phoenix Suns have a lot to play for right now.  They are tied with the Dallas Mavericks for the final play-in spot in the West.  And with the way they have been playing recently, they are clearly fighting hard to make the playoffs.

The Suns have gone 6-4 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They upset the Clippers, took the Nuggets to OT on the road, only lost by 2 at Memphis, crushed the Kings by 16 at home, crushed the Raptors by 40 at home, covered in a 6-point home win over the surging Bucks and upset the Cavaliers by 11 as 8.5-point home dogs last time out.

The Suns have now had the last two days off to rest, recover and get healthy.  They are without Bradley Beal, but the chemistry has actually been better for them without him.  I expect a big effort from the Suns laying the short number here tonight.

The Bucks have had two easy games in their last two due to injuries to their opponents.  The Lakers rested everyone when they beat them, and the Kings were without two starters in Monk and Sabonis.  So the Bucks have been able to get by without Damian Lillard, who they will be without again tonight.  

I don't expect it to go nearly as easy for them against this motivated, rested Suns team tonight.  The Bucks will be playing their 10th game in 17 days and their 4th consecutive road game.  This is a great spot to back the short home favorite.  Bet the Suns Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +3.5

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now as they are fighting hard to make the playoffs.  The Bulls are 7-2 SU & 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with their two losses coming by 3 at Houston and by 6 at Phoenix.

They upset the Lakers by 31 as 10.5-point road dogs, upset the Kings by 12 as 7.5-point road dogs, beat the Jazz by 14 as 4.5-point road favorites, beat the Nets by 6 as 2-point home favorites, upset the Pacers by 18 as 4-point home dogs, upset the Heat by 5 as 5-point road dogs and upset the Magic by 2 as 8.5-point road dogs.  They have beaten a lot of playoff teams during this stretch.

The Bulls are showing what they are capable of when they are as healthy as they are right now.  Now I fully expect them to upset the short-handed, tired Denver Nuggets tonight.  The Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 116-111 upset win in Houston last night.

Now the Nuggets will not only be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but also their 10th game in 16 days.  It's no wonder they are struggling right now going 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They are without their best player in Nikola Jokic, and I wouldn't be surprised if they rest some more guys tonight after Murray played 38 minutes, Gordon 37, Braun 34 and Porter Jr. 32 last night.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Dallas Mavericks ML -125

The Dallas Mavericks are tied with the Phoenix Suns for the final play-in spot in the West.  They are desperate for wins right now, and highly motivated to make the playoffs with the prospects that Anthony Davis could possibly return tonight as he has been upgraded to questionable.  At the very least he should be back soon, which gives them hope.

The Mavericks have been much more competitive in their last two games even without Davis, and likely due to the return of a healthy PJ Washington.  They led the Pacers by 7 in the final minute before blowing it to lose 135-131 as 10.5-point road dogs on Wednesday, March 19th.  They bounced back with a 123-117 win as 9.5-point home dogs to the Detroit Pistons on Friday.

Now the Mavericks have had the last two days off so they are rested and ready to go.  While they have a lot to play for, the Brooklyn Nets have nothing to play for but pride here down the stretch.  And I think this is a terrible spot for the Nets, who will be without their floor general in De'Angelo Russell tonight.

But the reason it looks like a bad spot is that they were just in three straight dog fights on the road to the Pacers (twice) and the Celtics.  They only lost those three games by a combined 19 points.  I was on the Nets in those games because they were catching a ton of points.  Now they have to win this game to beat us, and I don't think they'll be able to do it.  They return home from that road trip, and they are a very tired team playing their 9th game in 15 days.  Bet the Mavericks on the Money Line Monday.

20* Oregon/Arizona West Region No-Brainer on Oregon +5

In Dana Altmann I trust.  He is 17-7-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament in his career as a head coach.  He always has his Oregon Ducks playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch, and this season has been no exception.  The Ducks have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games with their lone loss coming to Michigan State, which had the rest advantage with a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.

Oregon should also have what feels like home-court advantage with this game being played in Seattle, Washington.  It's about 4 hours up the coast from Eugene.  No question it felt like a home game for the Ducks when they blasted Liberty 81-52 as 7-point favorites in the Round of 64.  They'll still be fresh after getting to rest their starters and playing just their 2nd game in 9 days.

Arizona made the Big 12 Championship Game and will be playing its 5th game in 11 days as a result.  The Wildcats were gifted that run because they beat a tired Kansas team off an OT game and beat a Texas Tech team that was without two of its top three scorers.  Reality set in with a 8-point loss to Houston as 5.5-point dogs in the championship game.

I just don't trust this Arizona team led by Caleb Love.  He is eventually going to shoot them out of a game in the NCAA Tournament, and I believe this is the game he does.  Bet Oregon Sunday.

15* Thunder/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +3

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in six consecutive games.  They are coming off five straight blowout wins beating Miami by 15 and Atlanta by 23 on the road, and crushing Charlotte by 35, Cleveland by 13 and Memphis by 20 at home.

The Clippers should be fresh playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  Now they want to show the top seed in the West in the Oklahoma City Thunder that they are for real.  No question the Clippers will be the more motivated team tonight.

The Thunder are going to struggle to find motivation here down the stretch.  They are locked into the No. 1 seed in the West sitting 12.5 games ahead of 2nd place Houston.  They have decided to rest players at times because of it, and tonight they will be without Jalen Williams and possibly Lu Dort, who are their two best defenders.  Life will be much easier on Khawi and Harden without these two.  Bet the Clippers Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Thunder/Clippers OVER 226.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.  The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in six consecutive games.

Now they play another dead nuts OVER team in the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Thunder rank 8th in pace and 3rd in offensive rating.  They have scored at least 118 points in six of their last seven games overall despite resting some guys during this stretch.  They may be without two of their best defenders tonight as Jalen Williams is for sure out, and Lu Dort is questionable.

The Clippers and Thunder have combined for at least 232 points in five of their last seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* UAB/Santa Clara NIT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 165.5

NIT OVERS have been a great bet for a couple seasons now.  The OVER is 14-4 in 18 NIT games thus far this season.  Books just can't set these totals high enough.  This is one of my favorite OVERS in NIT play today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Jacksonville State/UC-Irvine NIT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 138.5

NIT OVERS have been a great bet for a couple seasons now.  The OVER is 14-4 in 18 NIT games thus far this season.  Books just can't set these totals high enough.  This is one of my favorite OVERS in NIT play today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Sunday Round of 32 Total DOMINATOR on Ole Miss/Iowa State UNDER 146

This is where the loss of Keshon Gilbert (13.4 PPG, 4.1 APG) will hurt Iowa State.  The Cyclones were able to get by Lipscomb 82-55 for just 137 combined points without Gilbert in their opener.  They shot 58.3% as a team and it still stays UNDER the 144-point total.  Nothing will come easy against this elite Ole Miss defense today.

Ole Miss beat UNC 71-64 in the Round of 64 for just 135 combined points, shutting down what was previously one of the hottest teams in the country, and certainly boasts one of the best offenses in the country.  This is actually a step down in class for this Ole Miss defense.

Ole Miss ranks 20th in adjusted defense while Iowa State ranks 8th.  So these are two of the top defensive teams in the country.  Nothing will come easy for either team today, and the UNDER looks like a great bet as a result.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Ole Miss/Iowa State South Region No-Brainer on Ole Miss +5.5

Iowa State has just two wins against NCAA Tournament teams since January 16th, and one of those was Lipscomb.  I think the Cyclones are overvalued after that win against overmatched Lipscomb, and they will get a much stiffer test here against Ole Miss.

This is where the loss of Keshon Gilbert (13.4 PPG, 4.1 APG, 1.7 SPG) will hurt Iowa State.  Ole Miss has some of the best guards in the country who can handle Iowa State's pressure, and Gilbert was a big part of that pressure defensively not even factoring in what he means for them on the offensive end.

Ole Miss ranks 3rd in the country in turnover rate on offense turning it over on just 13% of possessions.  That will be the difference in this game as Ole Miss takes care of the ball offensively and gets good shots each time down.

Ole Miss beat UNC 71-64 in the Round of 64, shutting down what was previously one of the hottest teams in the country, and certainly boasts one of the best offenses in the country.  This is actually a step down in class for this Ole Miss defense.  I also trust Ole Miss head coach Chris Beard immensely.  Beard has 5 wins as a seed line underdog in the NCAA Tournament in his career.  Bet Ole Miss Sunday.

20* Colorado State/Maryland West Region No-Brainer on Colorado State +7.5

I've been riding Colorado State during basically their entire run to win the Mountain West and make the NCAA Tournament.  I'm not about to jump off now. No team in the country has been more underrated down the stretch than Colorado State.

The Rams are 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all 11 wins by 8 points or more. They have absolutely been crushing teams.  A big way to tell just how underrated a team is is with ATS margin.  The Rams covered the spread in those 11 games by a total of 128.5 points, or by an average of 11.7 points per game.

I'm certainly going to keep riding the Rams catching 7.5 points against Maryland.  No question the Terrapins have one of the most talented starting 5's in the country.  But they also have one of the worst benches in the country.  And their depth will be more tested here playing their 2nd game in 3 days.

We saw that play out in the Big 10 Tournament as after blasting Illinois by 23, the Terrapins were upset the next day by Michigan as 4.5-point favorites.  The Terrapins may win and advantage here, but not without a fight from a Rams team that couldn't possibly be playing with more confidence than they are right now.  Bet Colorado State Sunday.

15* Arkansas State/North Texas NIT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 136

NIT OVERS have been a great bet for a couple seasons now.  The OVER is 14-4 in 18 NIT games thus far this season.  Books just can't set these totals high enough.  This is one of my favorite OVERS in NIT play today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +7.5

The Portland Trail Blazers continue to play hard to try and make the playoffs.  They are only 2 games behind the Suns for the final play-in spot.  The Blazers have gone 19-11 SU & 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games overall.  

The Blazers are rested and will be playing just their 5th game in 11 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight hosting the defending champion Boston Celtics, a team that is struggling to find motivation right now, and one that is also banged up.

The Celtics are basically locked in to the No. 2 seed in the East.  They are 5 games behind the Cavaliers for 1st place and 7 games ahead of the Knicks in 3rd place with just 12 games remaining.  Their biggest focus right now is to get guys healthy going into the playoffs, not winning games.

That has been evident with their play of late going 2-4 ATS in their last six games with some very concerning results.  They only beat Utah by 6 as 15.5-point favorites, lost outright at home to the Thunder, only beat the Nets by 2 as 11.5-point favorites and beat the Nets again by 8 as 14-point favorites.  They are without Jaylen Brown, and Tatum, Holiday and Porzingis are all questionable to play tonight.  They should not be 7.5-point road favorites as a result.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on 76ers/Hawks OVER 239

The Philadelphia 76ers are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 8-1-1 OVER in their last 10 games with 233 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  They are playing a lot of youngsters right now and are all offense and no defense.  They rank 11th in pace and 27th in defensive rating during this stretch.  They have scored at least 120 points in five of their last eight games overall.

The Atlanta Hawks have been a dead nuts OVER team all season.  They rank 2nd in pace this season.  They have added some firepower off the bench during before the trade deadline in LeVert, Niang and Mann that has made them even more of an OVER team.  The Hawks have scored at least 119 points in nine of their last 11 games.

The Hawks are 3-0 OVER in their last three games despite playing two dead nuts under teams in Brooklyn and Charlotte, plus playing the Warriors who were without Steph Curry.  Now they face another OVER team here in the 76ers, and the result should be an absolute shootout.

The Hawks won 132-123 for 255 combined points in their last meeting on March 10th two weeks ago.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with 239 or more combined points in all six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* St. Mary's/Alabama East Region ANNIHILATOR on OVER 149

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted tempo, 4th in average length of offensive possession and 4th in adjusted offense.  This total of 149 is so low for a game involving Alabama right now.

Amazingly, Alabama and its opponents have combined for at least 166 points in 11 of their last 12 games overall.  Better yet, the Crimson Tide and their opponents have gone for at least 153 combined points in 17 consecutive games, making for a 17-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 149-point total.

Yes, St. Mary's plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country.  But Alabama plays its game no matter the opponent, and it's St. Mary's that is going to have to change its style a little to match just how potent the Crimson Tide are offensively.  I think Alabama is overrated defensively, so St. Mary's will have plenty of offensive success as well.  Alabama allowed 81 points to Robert Morris last round and has allowed 81 or more points in four of its last five games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Baylor/Duke East Region ANNIHILATOR on OVER 143.5

Duke has been a dead nuts OVER team down the stretch when Cooper Flagg has been healthy.  The Blue Devils are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games in which Flagg has started.  They have gone for at least 142 combined points with their opponents in all nine games.

Baylor is going to be forced to try and pick up the tempo to keep up with Duke today.  The Bears are coming off a 75-72 win over Mississippi State for 147 combined points.  Baylor has some of the best guards in the country, but they are limited inside due to injuries to their most important defenders down low.  

Norchad Omier (15.8 PPG) is a great offensive big man but he doesn't have much help defensively, so the Blue Devils should score at will in the paint against him as he tries to avoid foul trouble.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NIT TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State/SMU OVER 155.5

NIT OVERS have been a great bet for a couple seasons now.  The OVER is 14-4 in 18 NIT games thus far this season.  Books just can't set these totals high enough.  This is my favorite OVER in NIT play this week.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +9.5

The ACC was the most overrated conference in the country and it has played out in the NCAA Tournament with upset losses by Clemson, Louisville and North Carolina.  Only Duke remains in the NCAA Tournament as Sunday's Round of 32.

I'll gladly fade ACC opponent SMU today laying a big number against a Big 12 foe in Oklahoma State.  Asking the Mustangs to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

SMU was life and death with Northern Iowa in the final minutes before pulling away late for a 10-point victory.  Oklahoma State will present a much tougher, more athletic opponent today.  The Cowboys put away what was previously a red hot Wichita State team 89-79 in their NIT opener.

The Big 12 clearly looks dominant going 9-1 SU in the NCAA Tournament thus far heading into Sunday's Round of 32.  I'll trust the Cowboys after playing the much tougher schedule this season.  Bet Oklahoma State Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls +10

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now as they are fighting hard to make the playoffs.  The Bulls are 6-2 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their two losses coming by 3 at Houston and by 6 at Phoenix.

They upset the Kings by 12 as 7.5-point road dogs, beat the Jazz by 14 as 4.5-point road favorites, beat the Nets by 6 as 2-point home favorites, upset the Pacers by 18 as 4-point home dogs, upset the Heat by 5 as 5-point road dogs and upset the Magic by 2 as 8.5-point road dogs.  They have beaten a lot of playoff teams during this stretch.

The Bulls are showing what they are capable of when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They should be able to hang with the Lakers, who are dealing with a plethora of injuries right now with eight players on the injury report including questionable tags on both LeBron James and Rui Hachimura.  

The Lakers are just 3-5 SU in their last eight games and consistently getting too much respect.  They are also a tired team playing their 7th game in 10 days coming off three consecutive back-to-backs.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

20* Bulls/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 24th in defensive rating this season.  The OVER is 3-1 in Bulls last four games overall as they are coming off 248 combined points with Phoenix and 242 combined points with Sacramento.

The Los Angeles Lakers really profile as an OVER team since trading for Luka Doncic, once of the best scorers in the NBA but also one of the worst defenders.  We have seen that come to fruition with the Lakers going 4-1 OVER in the last five games in which Doncic has played.

The OVER is 8-1-1 in the last nine meetings between the Lakers and Bulls.  Los Angeles beat Chicago 141-132 for 273 combined points in their first and only meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* NCAA Tournament Opening Weekend GAME OF THE YEAR on Drake +8.5

Drake is 31-3 this season with all 3 losses by 7 points or fewer and by a combined 13 points, making for a 34-0 system backing the Bulldogs pertaining to this 8.5-point spread.  The Bulldogs had a great hire in Ben McCollum, who won four National Championships at DII Northwestern Missouri State.  He brought several players with him and the Bulldogs have proven they can compete at the DI level.

Drake made pretty easy work in the MVC Tournament beating Southern Illinois by 17, Belmont by 7 and then most impressively topped Bradley by 15 in the championship game.  Their suffocating defense held those three teams to an average of just 50 points per game.

Drake ranks 364th in adjusted tempo so they force their opponents to play on their terms.  They drug Missouri into the mud on Thursday and forced the Tigers to play their game even though Missouri likes to play up-tempo.  Drake won 67-57 as 6-point underdogs despite a huge FT discrepancy in favor of Missouri.  The Tigers went 23-of-26 from the FT line while the Bulldogs went just 12-of-24.

I am a big fan of Texas Tech when the Red Raiders are fully healthy, but that's just not the case right now.  Two of their top three players are banged up.  Darion Williams (13.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG) returned from injury against UNC-Wilmington and went just 5-of-15 from the floor.  He still looked hobbled.  Chance McMillian (13.7 PPG, 43.4% 3-pointers) did not return and they desperately miss his shooting and scoring.

I was not impressed with Texas Tech on Thursday beating UNC-Wilmington 82-72 as 15-point favorites.  Wilmington only shot 7-of-26 (27%) from 3-point range and still only lost by 10.  I expect the Red Raiders to be life and death in the final seconds with Drake in this one whether or not McMillian returns.  Bet Drake Saturday.

20* Michigan/Texas A&M East Region No-Brainer on Texas A&M ML -125

Michigan is the most overrated team in the country.  The Wolverines have gone 12-4 SU in their last 16 games despite a -17 point differential.  They were simply fortunate in close games all season, and they've won just one game by more than 6 points since January 12th.

I actually like fading teams that won their conference tournament because it takes a lot out of them.  The Wolverines had to play on Sunday and had the quick turnaround to a Thursday game.  The are fat and happy heading into the NCAA Tournament after winning the Big Ten Tournament.

Michigan was once again fortunate to escape with a 68-65 win over UC-San Diego on Thursday.  They clearly had the refs and shooting on their side.  UC-San Diego's best player in Tait-Jones fouled out and was in foul trouble all game only playing 24 minutes.  Michigan only won by 3 despite a rare poor shooting performance by the Tritons going just 7-of-30 (23%) from 3-point range.

This is where the luck runs out for the Wolverines.  Michigan ranks just 330th in turnover rate on offense turning it over on almost 20% of their possessions.  They are also 269th in turnover rate on defense, making them one the worst teams in the country in turnover rate.  I think that will be the difference.

Texas A&M just out-works everyone.  The Aggies rank 54th in country forcing turnovers on nearly 20% of opponent possessions, so this a terrible matchup for the Wolverines.  Texas A&M ranks 1st in offensive rebound rate grabbing 41.7% of its own misses.  Michigan ranks 176th allowing opponents to get offensive rebounds on 30% of their misses.  The Aggies are 9th in adjusted defense despite playing in the most offensive-friendly conference in the country in the SEC.  Turnovers and offensive rebounds will be the difference as the Aggies show they want it more.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +10

This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Nets and Pacers.  The Pacers won 104-99 (OT) as 8-point favorites on Thursday.  Now the Pacers are 10-point favorites in the rematch, and I don't agree with the move towards them.

I always like taking the team that lost the 1st meeting in these 2nd in 3 days scenarios.  They are always the more motivated team, and they tend to get revenge or at the very least get the cover.

The Nets continue to show up every night despite their position in the Eastern Conference standings.  They gave the Celtics all they could handle twice in their last four games losing by 2 and 8 points, and they upset Atlanta as 6.5-point dogs in the game in between.  

The Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games also losing to the Cavs by just 5 as 15-point dogs.  They also upset the Lakers and lost by 2 to the Warriors as 11.5-point dogs.  They haven't lost any of their last nine games by more than 8 points despite a brutal schedule with eight of those nine games against teams currently in the playoffs.

The Pacers are a tired team playing their 6th game in 9 days.  The Nets will be playing their 3rd game in 6 days.  De'Angelo Russell will sit this game, but they do get back Cam Johnson to make up for it after Johnson didn't play in that 1st meeting with the Pacers.  Indiana will likely sit Tyrese Haliburton again.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Pacers UNDER 220

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Nets and Pacers.  The Pacers won 105-99 (OT) on Thursday in a game that saw just 182 combined points at the end of regulation.  So we have 38 points to spare with this 220-point total in the rematch.

There's a good chance Tyrese Haliburton is out again for the Pacers.  Well, now the Nets are going to sit De'Angelo Russell.  So both teams could be without their floor generals for this one, which will throw both offenses off.

The Nets already rank dead last (30th) in pace and will play even slower without Russell.  They also rank 27th in offensive rating, making them a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Nets are 40-30 UNDER in all games this season.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 212 or fewer combined points in all three meetings this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Arkansas/St. John's Midwest Region ANNIHILATOR on St. John's -6.5

St. John's is 31-4 SU & 23-11 ATS this season and still one of the most underrated teams in the country. All four losses came by 3 points or fewer and by a combined 7 points, which shows just how close the Red Storm are to being 35-0.

St. John's is playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch going 10-0 SU & 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Red Storm have put together four straight wins by 16 points or more which includes wins over Creighton and Marquette.

The strength of the Red Storm is defense as they rank 1st in the country in adjusted defense.  They make you work for everything you get, and they suffocate teams in the 2H consistently running out of gas after intermission.  They make for a great tournament team because they are so difficult to prepare for.

John Calipari only has one day to prepare for St. John's, and I don't expect it to go well for him.  Rick Pitino is far and away the superior head coach here.  Arkansas has been fortunate in close games there of late with five of its last six wins coming by 7 points or fewer.  This is where their luck runs out.

Arkansas is without one of its best players in Adou Thiero (15.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.7 SPG) and he will be missed here.  We saw Kansas go zone on Arkansas in the 2H and they didn't know what they were doing against it.  I think Pitino will pull all the right strings here to make life difficult on the Razorbacks.

St. John's forced turnovers on 22% of opponents' possessions which ranks 22nd in the country.  Arkansas is prone to turning it over ranking 135th in turnover percentage.  The Red Storm will want it more here and win most of the loose balls while pulling away in the 2H once again.  They will also have a big home-court advantage with this game being played in Providence.  Bet St. John's Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Clippers OVER 230.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in five consecutive games.  Now they play a Memphis Grizzlies team that hasn't played a lick of defense for weeks.  They have allowed 127 or more points in eight of those 17 games.

Memphis is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in the NBA in pace.  They play fast with or without Ja Morant.  The OVER is 39-29-2 in all Grizzlies games this season.  They have combined for 237 or more points with their opponents in four of their last six games overall.

The Clippers are more of an OVER team now due to their improvement offensively.  They are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games with 236 or more combined points four times during this stretch.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Grizzlies/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -6.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in five consecutive games.  Now they play a Memphis Grizzlies team that hasn't played a lick of defense for weeks.

The Grizzlies are 2-14-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall largely due to poor defense.  They have allowed 127 or more points in eight of those 17 games.  They are also without Ja Morant right now.

Memphis is also a tired team playing its 13th game in 22 days.  The Grizzlies haven't had two days off in a row since February.  Meanwhile, the Clippers come in on two days' rest and will be the fresher, healthier team tonight as a result.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

15* Nuggets/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland ML -120

The Portland Trail Blazers continue to play hard to try and make the playoffs.  They are only 2 games behind the Suns for the final play-in spot.  The Blazers have gone 18-11 SU & 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games overall.  

The Blazers are rested and will be playing just their 4th game in 9 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight hosting the Denver Nuggets, a very tired team that will be playing their 8th game in 13 days.

That fatigue has really started to show down the stretch as the Nuggets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and the injuries are really starting to pile up.  They will be without Nikola Jokic tonight, Jamaal Murray is questionable, and Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun are both dealing with nagging injuries.  Bet the Blazers on the Money Line Friday.

20* Liberty/Oregon East Region No-Brainer on Oregon -5.5

In Dana Altmann I trust.  He is 16-7-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament in his career as a head coach.  Oregon is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games in the Round of 64.  Altmann always has his Oregon Ducks playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch, and this season has been no exception.  The Ducks have won 8 of their last 9 games with their lone loss coming to Michigan State, which had the rest advantage with a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.

Oregon played the 19th-toughest schedule in the country this season while Liberty played the 198th-ranked schedule.  The Flames only played one NCAA Tournament team all season, which was McNeese State from the Southland.  They are a good shooting team, but I think they are getting too much respect here.

Oregon should also have what feels like home-court advantage with this game being played in Seattle, Washington.  It's about 4 hours up the coast from Eugene and I expect the Ducks to have plenty of support there.  Bet Oregon Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Xavier +3.5

Since the First 4 started in 2011, 13 teams from the First 4 have advanced to the Round of 32.  At least one team has won a Round of 64 game in 12 of the last 14 years.  Xavier looks to be the most promising team to make a run if it's not UNC.

Xavier is playing as well as anyone in the Big East outside of St. John's here down the stretch to play their way into the NCAA Tournament.  The Musketeers are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming by 2 to Marquette as 2.5-point dogs.  They beat Creighton by 22 at home during this stretch.

I don't understand why Illinois continues to get so much respect.  The Fighting Illini are 8-8 SU & 7-8-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  They only beat three NCAA Tournament teams during this stretch and two of those came at home.  

They lost by 23 to Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament, by 43 to Duke on a neutral, by 14 to Michigan State at home, by 21 to Maryland at home and by 21 to Wisconsin on the road.  They also were upset by Nebraska, USC and Rutgers during this stretch.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Xavier Friday.

20* Xavier/Illinois South Region No-Brainer on OVER 158.5

The Illinois Fighting Illini are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 18th in adjusted tempo, 15th in adjusted offense and 41st in adjusted defense.  They let opponents get shots up quickly as they rank 8th in average length of defensive possession at just 16.5 seconds per possession.

Illinois has allowed at least 78 points in 10 of its last 13 games overall.  The Fighting Illini are 15-7-1 OVER in their last 23 games overall.  They have combined for at least 161 points with their opponents in seven of their last 10 games.

Xavier profiles as an OVER team as well ranking 76th in adjusted tempo and 49th in average length of offensive possession.  The Musketeers are a tough offense to tame scoring at least 76 points in eight of their last nine games overall.  The OVER is 11-3 in Musketeers' last 14 games overall with 166 or more combined points in three of their last four games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +14

The Boston Celtics are struggling to find motivation here down the stretch.  They are pretty much locked in to the No. 2 seed, trailing the Cavs by 6 games but 7 games ahead of 3rd-place New York.

The Celtics have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have two lackluster wins over the lowly Nets by 8 as 13.5-point favorites and by 2 as 11-point favorites.  They also only beat the Jazz by 6 as 16-point home favorites on March 10th.

Now it's the Jazz out for revenge and catching 14 points at home in the rematch here less than two weeks later.  The Jazz have gone 11-7 ATS in their last 18 games overall despite being without several key players along the way.  Despite the belief they are tanking, they continue to show up most nights, and they'll certainly show up for the defending champs tonight.  Bet the Jazz Friday.

15* Oklahoma/UConn East Region ANNIHILATOR on OVER 147.5

The UConn Huskies aren't the team they were the last couple seasons when they won the NCAA Tournament.  They are elite offensively, but this is perhaps the worst defensive team of the Dan Hurley era.  The Huskies rank 14th in adjusted offense but just 95th in adjusted defense.

They face an Oklahoma Sooners team that has really changed philosophy this season under Porter Moser to play more up-tempo.  The Sooners are a dead nuts OVER team as a result, ranking 107th in adjusted tempo, 66th in average length of offensive possession, 22nd in adjusted offense and just 70th in adjusted defense.

The OVER is 6-1 in Oklahoma's last seven games overall with 148 or more combined points in all seven games, so this total of 147.5 is pretty short for a game involving the Sooners right now.  They combined for 169 with Kentucky, 156 with Georgia, 180 with Missouri, 171 with Ole Miss, 165 with Kentucky and 180 with Mississippi State during this stretch.  

Oklahoma ranks 29th in free throw rate on offense and 254th in free throw rate on defense, so they foul a lot and get fouled a lot.  UConn fouls even more, ranking 333rd in free throw rate defensively.  They just don't have guys on the perimeter that can move their feet and stay in front of opponents this season.  Both teams will get to the FT line a lot, which will help us cash this OVER ticket tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -13.5

I love the spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They get a shot at quick revenge after a shocking 119-115 home loss as identical 13.5-point favorites to the Pelicans on Wednesday.  Now they get to host the Pelicans again.

Zion Williamson had 29 points and 8 assists in that first meeting.  Well, Williamson has been ruled out, leaving an already injury-ravaged Pelicans team even worse off heading into this one.  The Timberwolves are fully healthy.

New Orleans shot 53% as a team and 13-of-29 (45%) from 3-point range in that first meeting, so they are due some negative shooting regression.  The Timberwolves shot just 45% as a team and are due some positive shooting regression against a terrible Pelicans defense that ranks dead last (30th) in defensive rating this season.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Spurs OVER 236.5

The Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall while ranking dead last (30th) in defensive rating during this stretch.  They have gone for 234 or more combined points with their opponents in 10 of those 11 games.

The Philadelphia 76ers are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 7-1-1 OVER in their last nine games with 233 or more combined points in six of those nine games.  They rank 27th in defensive rating during this stretch.

Both teams have a lot of youngsters playing right now that are just trying to make a name for themselves, especially the 76ers.  Both are having fun and playing freely knowing they are eliminated from playoff contention.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Marquette -3.5

The Mountain West is now 26-55 ATS in their last 81 NCAA Tournament games after San Diego State got blown out 95-68 by North Carolina on Tuesday and Utah State got blown out 72-47 by UCLA on Thursday.  The only Mountain West team I trust is Colorado State, and I'll gladly fade New Mexico tonight.

The Lobos struggled down the stretch going 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  THat includes two losses to Boise State and a 8-point loss to that same San Diego State team that got blown out by UNC.  They also narrowly escaped with a pair of 4-point wins over Wyoming and Nevada, two of the poor teams in the Mountain West.  And earlier this season they lost by 14 to St. John's, a fellow Big East opponent of Marquette.

I think the Golden Eagles come into the NCAA Tournament a little undervalued after losing three of their final four games including two losses to St. John's.  The other loss came on the road to UConn, while they also beat Xavier in the Big East Tournament, which was the only loss Xavier has suffered in its last nine games playing as well as anyone in the Big East.

Marquette is a very balanced team with very few weaknesses.  The Golden Eagles rank 31st in adjusted offense and 22nd in adjusted defense.  And while New Mexico is a solid defensive team, there is a glaring weakness for the Lobos on the other end as they rank just 85th in adjusted offense.  There will also be bit of a home-court advantage for Marquette with this game being played in Cleveland, Ohio.  Bet Marquette Friday.

20* Colorado State/Memphis West Region No-Brainer on Colorado State ML -130

I've been riding Colorado State during basically their entire run to win the Mountain West and make the NCAA Tournament.  I'm not about to jump off now. No team in the country was more underrated down the stretch than Colorado State.

The Rams are 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall with all 10 wins by 8 points or more. They have absolutely been crushing teams.  A big way to tell just how underrated a team is is with ATS margin.  The Rams covered the spread in those 10 games by a total of 122 points, or by an average of 12.2 points per game.

Memphis has been pretty fortunate here down the stretch winning four of its last six games by 7 points or fewer, including a 1-point win over Tulane and a 3-point win over Wichita State in the AAC Tournament.  Give Memphis credit for rallying in the title game without their leader in Tyrese Hunter to beat UAB.

Hunter hasn't been officially ruled out, but he was in a walking boot for that UAB game, and even if he plays he won't be anywhere near 100%.  Penny Hardaway has just one NCAA Tournament win in his three years at Memphis.  We are definitely getting the better head coach in Niko Medved and the healthier team playing the better basketball right now.  This 12-seed is favored over the 5-seed for good reason here.  Bet Colorado State Friday.

25* Round of 64 TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Robert Morris/Alabama OVER 165.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted tempo, 4th in average length of offensive possession and 4th in adjusted offense.  This total of 165.5 is actually low for a game involving Alabama right now.

Amazingly, Alabama and its opponents have combined for at least 166 points in 10 of their last 11 games overall, making for a 10-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 165.5-point total.

Robert Morris is a pretty athletic team that won't mind getting up and down with Alabama.  The Colonials rank 140th in adjusted tempo, and they rank 39th in average length of defensive possession, so they allow their opponents to get up shots quickly.  They haven't seen anything like Alabama.

These are also two teams that get to the FT line a lot.  Alabama ranks 25th in free throw rate while Robert Morris ranks 41st.  Both also shoot the 3-pointer well as both are right at 35%.  Robert Morris has scored at least 79 points in four consecutive games to close out the season.  I think they can do enough to contribute to this total, while Alabama pushes 100 points.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Bucks/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Milwaukee -2.5

This is a brutal spot for the Los Angeles Lakers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days tonight.  They got revenge on the Nuggets for their last loss last night, and they are feeling fat and happy now heading into this game against Milwaukee.

That was a Nuggets team that was missing their two best players in Jokic and Murray.  Now it's the Lakers that could be missing their two best players.  LeBron James remains out, and Luka Doncic has been sitting on back-to-backs since coming to the Lakers.  I wouldn't be surprised at all if he sits tonight, and I like the Bucks either way.

While the Lakers are tired, fat and happy off three straight wins, the Bucks are rested and pissed off following two consecutive losses to the Thunder and Warriors, two teams playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  The Bucks also beat the Lakers 126-106 at home in their first meeting this season.  Doncic had 45 points and the Lakers still lost by 20!  Bet the Bucks Thursday.

20* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on UC-San Diego +3.5

UC-San Diego won 30 games this season.  They are the best mid-major in the country outside of perhaps VCU.  I don't think they could have gotten a better 1st-round matchup than Michigan.

Michigan is the most overrated team in the country.  The Wolverines went 11-4 SU in their last 15 games despite a -20 point differential.  They were simply fortunate in close games all season, and they've won just one game by more than 6 points since January 12th.

I actually like fading teams that won their conference tournament because it takes a lot out of them.  The Wolverines had to play on Sunday and now have the quick turnaround to a Thursday game.  They are fat and happy heading into the NCAA Tournament.

The best part of UC-San Diego is turnovers, as they are 7th in turnover rate on offense and 2nd in turnover rate on defense with the best turnover differential in the entire country.  Michigan ranks just 328th in turnover rate on offense turning it over on almost 20% of their possessions.  They are also 265th in turnover rate on defense, making them one the worst teams in the country in turnover rate.  I think that will be the difference.  Bet UC-San Diego Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on UCLA -5.5

The Mountain West is now 26-54 ATS in their last 80 NCAA Tournament games after San Diego State got blown out by North Carolina on Tuesday.  The only Mountain West team I trust is Colorado State, and I'll gladly fade Utah State Thursday night.

Utah State struggled away from home down the stretch going 2-6 ATS in its final eight road games.  That includes a 27-point loss at Colorado State and a 17-point loss at Boise State in their final two.  They also lost to Colorado State by 11 in the MWC Tournament.  Key role player Drake Allen (7.2 PPG) who is their top bench player is out for the season.

UCLA will benefited from playing in the Big Ten this season and playing a much more difficult schedule than they were used to in the Pac-12 before.  The Bruins are 11-4 SU & 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They are the much better defensive team, and their physicality will give this soft Utah State team fits for 40 minutes.  Bet UCLA Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Drake +6.5

The Missouri Tigers are one of the more vulnerable teams from the SEC.  They are limping into the NCAA Tournament going 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their best player in Mark Mitchell is banged up as well.  Head coach Dennis Gates has just one NCAA Tournament win to his name.

Drake went 30-3 this season with the three losses coming by a combined 13 points.  The Bulldogs had a great hire in Ben McCollum, who won four National Championships at DII Northwestern Missouri State.  He brought several players with him and the Bulldogs have proven they can compete at the DI level.

Drake made pretty easy work in the MVC Tournament beating Southern Illinois by 17, Belmont by 7 and then most impressively topped Bradley by 15 in the championship game.  Their suffocating defense held those three teams to an average of just 50 points per game.

Drake ranks 364th in adjusted tempo so they force their opponents to play on their terms.  I think that will frustrate Missouri, which prefers to play a more up-tempo game.  

One big advantage for the Bulldogs is that they rank 17th in offensive rebounding rate grabbing 36% of their own misses.  Missouri ranks 300th allowing opponents to grab 32.2% of their misses.  That could easily be the difference in this game.  I trust McCollum over Gates to make the necessary adjustments, and I have the Bulldogs pulling off the upset here.  Bet Drake Thursday.