20* NIT TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Tulsa/New Mexico OVER 160.5

Tulsa is a dead nuts OVER team going 23-11 OVER in all games this season.  The Golden Hurricane rank 36th in adjusted offense and 139th in adjusted defense.  They rank 25th in effective FG percentage offense, 5th in 3-point percentage (38.9%) and 17th in FT percentage (78%).

New Mexico is also a dead nuts OVER team going 23-12 OVER in all games this season.  The Lobos rank 48th in adjusted tempo, 56th in adjusted offense and 50th in 3-point percentage (36.2%).  They play fast, efficient offense and this game shapes up as a shootout.

A big reason both of these teams have made it this far in the NIT is because both are fully healthy and have all guys on deck.  Both teams have their top seven scorers playing.  Tulsa just got back leading scorer David Green (15.7 PPG) after sitting out the first two NIT games, but with him back in the lineup they beat Wichita State 83-79 for 162 combined points last game.

Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis is a shooter-friendly venue.  Look for both teams to light it up tonight in this NIT showdown.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on San Antonio Spurs -13.5

The Spurs are playing better than anyone in the NBA as they try and chase down the Oklahoma City Thunder for 1st place in the West.  They rank 3rd in offensive rating, 3rd in defensive rating and 2nd in net rating only behind the Thunder.  They are legit title contenders.

The Spurs have gone 25-2 SU & 18-9 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  Amazingly, 16 of those 25 wins have come by 13 points or more so they have been blowing out teams on the regular.  They are fully healthy right now, and asking them to win this game by 14 points or more to cover isn't asking too much.

The Golden State Warriors are basically content with being the 10th seed in the West at this point and having to play two road games to make the playoffs.  They aren't tanking, they just don't have the horses right now to be competitive.

The Warriors are 11-20 SU & 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games overall, which basically coincided with losing Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler.  But they are also without Porzingis, Post, Moody, Melton and Horford tonight with both Santos and Payton II questionable.  They are without five of their top six scorers and basically a G League in their current state.  They have no chance of keeping this game competitive tonight.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +17

The Utah Jazz have played three straight playoff contenders and were competitive with two of them.  They lost by 9 to the Cavs as 16.5-point home dogs, and their lone non-competitive loss was to the Suns on the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The other was a 135-129 road loss at Denver as 19.5-point dogs.  The Jazz shot just 27.3% from 3 yet still only lost by 6 to the Nuggets on the road.  Now they want revenge from that defeat at 17-point home dogs in the rematch here just five days later.  This number has been inflated and we will take advantage.

The Nuggets are such a poor defensive team which makes it difficult for them to cover these inflated numbers.  Denver is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall which includes an outright upset road loss at Memphis as 12.5-point favorites.  Denver has just one win by more than 16 points in its last seven games.

I don't see the Nuggets being all that motivated to beat the Jazz again here less than a week later.  And they have a big game on deck against the Spurs that they could be looking ahead to.  Either way, this number is inflated.  Bet the Jazz Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Wizards OVER 237.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 12-5 OVER in their last 17 games overall.  They have gone for 242 or more combined points in 13 of those 17 games, so this total of 237.5 is very short for a game involving the Wizards right now.  They rank 6th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.

The 76ers are an OVER team when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They recently got Maxey, Embiid, George and Oubre back from injury, which are four of their top five scorers.  Embiid will sit tonight, but the 76ers have a ton of firepower even without him and should hang a big number on the Wizards to pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket with ease.

The Wizards will have two key guards in Johnson and Coulibaly available tonight.  They won't have Sarr, but that just makes them even smaller and having to play more small ball really benefits OVERS.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 241 or more combined points in two of three meetings this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Blazers/Clippers NBC Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5

The Los Angeles Clippers have been one of the best teams in the NBA since the turn of the calendar year.  They have been especially good since trading for Darius Garland and Bennedict Mathurin.  And they are a dangerous team when Garland, Mathurin, Leonard and Collins are all healthy at the same time, which is the case right now.

The Clippers have won five consecutive games to get to 39-36 and in 8th place in the West.  Assuring they get the 7th or 8th seed gives them a great chance to qualify for the playoffs, and they are highly motivated to do just that.  They would almost assuredly lock up at least 8th place tonight with a win over the Blazers, who sit in 9th place and 1.5 games behind them.

While this is also a huge game for the Blazers, they haven't been playing nearly as well as the Clippers, and they aren't nearly as healthy either.  The Blazers are without two of their top three scorers in Shaedon Sharpe (21.4 PPG) and Jerami Grant (18.6 PPG) tonight.  I give them little to no chance of keeping this game competitive without these two tonight.  

The Clippers own the Blazers going 20-2 SU in the last 22 meetings.  Amazingly, all 20 of their wins have come by 5 points or more, so we are getting a discount on Los Angeles -5 tonight.  Bet the Clippers Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers/Clippers UNDER 228

This is a huge game in the West tonight.  The Clippers are in 8th place just 1.5 games ahead of the 9th place Blazers.  The team that finishes in 8th has a huge advantage to make the playoffs over the team that finishes 9th in the play-in.  It's safe to say defensive intensity will be very high in this game tonight.

The Clippers rank 28th in pace this season and will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  They have been playing elite defense allowing just 104.0 points per game in their last four games.  The Clippers will shut down the Blazers, who are without two of their top three scorers in Shaedon Sharpe (21.4 PPG) and Jerami Grant (18.6 PPG) tonight.  

Portland will struggle offensively tonight without these two and will have to rely more on defense to try and stay competitive.  They went for just 193 combined points with the Mavs and 211 with the Wizards in their last two games coming in, so this total of 228 is very high for a game involving Portland.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Clippers and Blazers with 222 or fewer combined points in all three.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Knicks/Rockets NBC ANNIHILATOR on Houston ML +105

I think the New York Knicks quietly would like to fall to the 4th seed in the East to avoid the Celtics in the 2nd round.  They are just one game ahead of 4th place Cleveland and would be just fine if the Cavaliers overtake them for the 3rd seed.

That helps explain why the Knicks seem to just be going through the motions are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall with double-digit road losses to both the Hornets and Thunder, as well as a narrow home win over the Pelicans.  The Knicks have been terrible on the road all season going 20-18 SU & 14-24 ATS, so they should not be favored over the Rockets tonight.

The Rockets are 25-10 SU at home this season.  They are also 20-7 SU against Eastern Conference opponents.  They want revenge from a 2-point loss at New York in their first meeting this season in February.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.

The Rockets have more to play for right now trying to avoid the play-in sitting in 6th place in the West.  They could climb as high as No. 3 or No. 4 in the West, too.  They are coming off a pair of blowout road wins over the Pelicans by 32 and the Grizzlies by 10.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Rockets on the Money Line Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Phoenix Suns +2

The Phoenix Suns sit in 7th place in the West.  They still have an outside shot at the 6th seed, but at the very least want to make sure they stay in 7th place to give them the best chance to come out of the play-in.  They are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now, and they are about to be as healthy as they have been in a long time.

Indeed, the Suns are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming to the Nuggets by 2.  They blew out the Raptors by 22, the Jazz by 25 and the Grizzlies by 26 in their three wins.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but the blowout nature of their win over the Grizzlies last night allowed almost all of their key players to rest in the 4th quarter.

The Suns will only be playing their 3rd game in 7 days tonight, so they should still be very fresh.  And Dillon Brooks (20.9 PPG) makes his much-anticipated return from a hand injury after missing 25 games.  Grayson Allen (17.3 PPG) sat out last night so they would have him available for this game.  The Suns will be 'all in' tonight to get this win.

The Magic have been needing wins for weeks and they just can't get them, and I'm really starting to wonder about the chemistry of this team.  The Magic are 1-6 SU in their last seven games overall.  The one win? How bout a narrow 121-117 home win over the tanking Kings as 15.5-point favorites.

The Magic are coming off a 52-point loss at Toronto, and they had two days off prior to that game.  It's a concerning sign for the Magic, who have no business being favored in this game, especially since they remain without two of their top four scorers in Franz Wagner (21.3 PPG) and Anthony Black (15.3 PPG).  Bet the Suns Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +17.5

This line is inflated due to the perception that the Jazz are tanking.  But they are only getting outscored by 6.2 points per game at home this season.  And they recently just took the Nuggets to the wire on the road two games ago.  They are much healthier than they've been in a long time and will give the Cavs a run for their money tonight.

The Cavs just don't have much to play for here down the stretch.  They want the 4th seed and are pretty much locked into it trailing the Knicks by 1.5 games for 3rd place and leading the Raptors by 4 games for 4th place.  They would love to finish 4th in the East to assure they play the Pistons in the 2nd round instead of Boston.

The Cavs have been going through the motions for weeks going just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have just two wins by more than 14 points in their last 18 games, so they aren't really blowing anyone out.  They are without four key players in Allen, Tyson, Strus and Wade tonight.  

Cleveland also has a big game on deck tomorrow night with the Lakers, which they may be saving up for tonight.  The Jazz upset the Cavs 123-112 in Cleveland as 13-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  Bet the Jazz Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cavs/Jazz OVER 242

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team no matter who they have on the court.  They rank 2nd in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  The Jazz recently went for 270 combined points with the Raptors and 264 with the Nuggets, and they have gone for 242 or more combined points in six of their last seven contests.  

The Jazz are 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall, and this total of 242 is too short for a game involving the Jazz right now.  They are 27-11 OVER in all home games this season where they control the pace, and opponents wear down defensively in the altitude with that break-neck pace.

The Cavs just went for 277 combined points with the Heat and 267 with the Magic in two of their last three games coming in.  They are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games overall with 243 or more combined points in five of those.  This total is pretty short for a game involving the Cavs right now, too.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Hawks ML -120

The Atlanta Hawks have a lot to play for sitting in 6th place in the East.  They are desperate to avoid the play-in and to win the Southeast Division.  They are only 0.5 games behind the Raptors for 5th place, but only 0.5 games ahead of the 76ers who are in 7th.  They have no margin for error right now.

The Hawks are playing their best basketball of the season to put themselves in this position.  They have gone 15-2 SU & 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  One of those two losses came to the Celtics by 7 on the road on March 27th.  Now is their chance to avenge that defeat just three days later tonight.

They catch the Celtics in a very tough spot playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a road win at Charlotte last night.  The Celtics have already decided to rest two starters in Jayson Tatum and Neemias Queta tonight.  They are nearly locked into the #2 seed in the East 4 games behind the Pistons but 2.5 games ahead of the Knicks with only 8 games left.  They don't have nearly as much to play for as Atlanta.  Bet the Hawks on the Money Line Monday.

20* Warriors/Nuggets NBC Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 238.5

The Denver Nuggets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in offensive rating and 21st in defensive rating this season.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time and thriving offensively right now.

The Nuggets and their opponents have gone for at least 233 combined points in 12of their last 14 games overall.  They are coming off a 125-123 win in Phoenix for 248 combined points, a 142-135 win over the Mavs for 277 combined points and a 135-129 win over the Jazz for 264 combined points.  The Nuggets have gone for at least 240 combined points in 9 of their last 12 games.

The Golden State Warriors have quietly gone 15-6 OVER in their last 21 games overall.  They have still been scoring without Steph Curry, but their defense has taken a major hit without Jimmy Butler.  They have gone for 235 or more combined points in 7 of their last 10 games overall.  This total of 238.5 is short for a game involving the Warriors and Nuggets right now.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 245 and 240 points at the end of regulation in two of them.  This game will be a shootout tonight with very little defense being played.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +6

The New Orleans Pelicans are 10-8 SU & 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall and absolute covering machines right now.  They only have four losses by more than 5 points in their last 18 games, so they have been competitive even in defeat.  They have no incentive to tank since they don't have their draft pick.

The Houston Rockets have been one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA this season.  The Rockets are 19-19 SU & 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games overall.  That includes 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They play a slow tempo style with terrible offense that makes it very tough for them to get margin on opponents.

The Pelicans want revenge from a 107-105 loss in Houston as 5.5-point dogs on March 13th just two weeks ago.  Now they are 6-point home dogs in the rematch, and this is tremendous value tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.

20* UConn/Duke Elite 8 No-Brainer on UConn +5.5

Dan Hurley is 19-4 ATS as a head coach in the NCAA Tournament.  That includes a perfect 13-0 ATS in the Round of 32 or later.  The Huskies are 13-1 SU in non-conference games this season with their only loss coming to the best team in the country in Arizona by 4.  They are 9-0 SU in neutral site games this season.

Duke is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Blue Devils beat FSU by 1, were fortunate to cover in a 12-point win over Clemson, beat Virginia by 4 and then beat Siena by 6 as 28.5-point favorites in the Round of 64.  The Blue Devils trailed most that game and it wasn't decided until the final seconds.  That was a Siena team that played all 5 starters 40 minutes, too.

The Duke Blue Devils have been tied or trailing with 15 minutes remaining in each of their three NCAA Tournament games.  Their game against TCU was very misleading, and they needed a late surge to put away St. John's by 5 as 6.5-point favorites.  Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngonba are back, but neither are 100%.

Tarris Reed is a monster for UConn and gives them a great chance to hold up inside against Boozer.  Alex Karaban is a senior who is playing his best basketball.  Solo Ball finally got a few shots to fall against Michigan State, and Mullins and Demary Jr. are shooters to complement those other three.  I simply trust Dan Hurley to make the proper adjustments and keep his team in this game for 40 minutes.  I believe Duke is grossly overvalued, and it has shown dating back to the ACC Tournament.  Bet UConn Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Jazz/Suns OVER 231

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team no matter who they have on the court.  They rank 2nd in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  The Jazz recently went for 270 combined points with the Raptors and 264 with the Nuggets, and they have gone for 242 or more combined points in five of their last six contests.  They are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall, and this total of 231 is too short for a game involving the Jazz right now.

The Suns are having to play more small ball without Mark Williams and Dillon Brooks.  They are coming off a 125-123 loss to the Nuggets for 248 combined points, and they have gone for 231 or more combined points in five of their last nine games overall.  They've had the last three days off and will be looking to run and hang a big number on the Jazz tonight to lead the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.

The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Jazz and Suns.  They have gone for 232 or more combined points in seven of their last nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Purdue/Arizona Elite 8 No-Brainer on Arizona -6

Arizona is the best team in the country.  The Wildcats are 35-2 this season with their only losses coming on the road at Kansas by 4 and to Texas Tech on OT back when they had JT Toppin.  The Wildcats rank 4th in adjusted offense and 3rd in adjusted defense with zero weaknesses.

Arizona is 14-0 SU & 11-5 ATS in none-conference games this season.  They have wins over FLorida, UCLA, UConn, Auburn and Alabama in the non-conference.  They have made easy work of their first three NCAA Tournament opponents beating LIU by 34, Utah state by 12 and Arkansas by 21.

Purdue has been fortunate to advance this far.  After a dominant win over lowly Queens, they were life and death with both Miami and Texas the last two rounds.  They don't have what it takes to hang with Arizona, especially on defense.

The weakness of the Boilermakers is defense where they rank 36th in adjusted defense and 234th in effective FG percentage defense.  Arizona ranks 1st in effective FG percentage defense to compare.  Purdue's guards are terrible at staying in front of opposing guards with a big lack of athleticism from Smith and Loyer.  Burries and Bradley will torch them time and time again.

Trey Kaufman-Renn will be a non-factor against these Arizona bigs, who will shut him down.  The same can be said for Oscar Cluff, who doesn't have a very polished offensive game.  Arizona's big men will dominate, too, and they are just better everywhere.  This will also feel like a home game for Arizona being played in San Jose.

Purdue lost 81-58 to Big 12 opponent Iowa State in the non-conference, and that was a home game to boot.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

20* Iowa/Illinois Elite 8 No-Brainer on Illinois -6.5

The Illinois Fighting Illini have only lost one game since December 22nd that didn't go to OT, and that was to Michigan, arguably the best team in the country.  They beat Iowa 75-69 on the road in their lone meeting this season.  That was a 17-point game in the 2H and a misleading final as the Fighting Illini dominated.

Iowa's run comes to an end here.  The Hawkeyes have been very fortunate in close games with all three games against Clemson, Florida and Nebraska going down to the wire.  The Hawkeyes never led against Nebraska until there were under two minutes remaining as the Huskers went cold in the final five minutes.

This is a much tougher challenge for Iowa against Illinois.  The Fighting Illini were in control of each of their first three games of the NCAA Tournament with a 35-point win over Penn, a 21-point win over VCU and a 10-point win over Houston in what was basically a home game for the Cougars being played in Houston.  The Fighting Illini led by double-digits throughout.

Illinois ranks 2nd in adjusted offense and 21st in adjusted defense.  Iowa ranks 19th in adjusted offense and 32nd in adjusted defense.  The Fighting Illini are better everywhere, and their ability to go 5 out with 5 3-point shooters on the court at the same time makes them a matchup nightmare for everyone, not just Iowa.  They are also the much better defensive team in this game.  Bet Illinois Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Iowa State Sweet 16 Late-Night BAILOUT on Iowa State -3.5

The Iowa State Cyclones improved to 15-0 SU & 9-6 ATS against non-conference opponents this season with a dominant 82-63 win over Kentucky in the Round of 32.  That's the same Kentucky team from the SEC that beat Tennessee twice this season to sweep the season series.  The Cyclones are also 24-1 SU as a favorite in non-conference games over the last two seasons.

There have been five common opponents between Tennessee and Iowa State this season in Kentucky, Kansas, Houston, Tennessee State and Syracuse.  Iowa State is 5-1 SU against those teams, outscoring them by 14 points per game.  Tennessee is 2-4 SU against them, outscoring them by 3.3 points per game.

Tennessee actually lost to Kansas, Syracuse and Illinois in the non-conference.  The Vols have had an easy path to get here beating a fraudulent Miami Ohio team in the Round of 64 before escaping against Virginia in the Round of 32.

I love the matchup for the Cyclones.  They forced 20 turnovers against Kentucky and rank 4th in the country forcing turnovers on 22.5% of opponents possessions.  Tennessee is terrible at taking care of the basketball, ranking 225th in turnover percentage (17.3%) on offense.  Iowa State is going to create extra possessions and easy scoring opportunities, while nothing will come easy for Tennessee.

I know Joshua Jefferson is a game-time decision for the Cyclones and I took them fully expecting him not to play.  But I actually like the way Iowa State moves the ball without him and there is a much better flow to the offense when the ball isn't sticking in his hands, which is often does.  Nate Heise is the straw that stirs the drink for the Cyclones off the bench, and he now gets more minutes in Jefferson's absence.  This will feel like a home game for the Cyclones being played in Chicago just 6 hours from campus, and no fans travel as well as theirs do.  Bet Iowa State Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Warriors OVER 232

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 6th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They have really quit playing defense in the midst of 1-16 SU run.  They have allowed 117 or more points in 16 of their last 18 games overall.

The OVER is 11-3 in Wizards last 14 games overall with 234 or more combined points in 12 of those 14 games.  They are coming off 258 combined points with the Knicks, 243 with the Thunder and 243 with the Jazz.  They have gone for 242 or more combined points in five of their last six games overall, so this total of 232 is pretty short for a game involving the Wizards right now.

The Golden State Warriors have quietly gone 14-6 OVER in their last 20 games overall.  They have still been scoring without Steph Curry, but their defense has taken a major hit without Jimmy Butler.  They have gone for 235 or more combined points in six of their last nine games overall.  This total of 232 is also short for a game involving the Warriors right now.

Golden State beat Washington 125-117 for 242 combined points on March 16th less than two weeks ago.  Neither team lit it up especially the Wizards, who shot just 28.1% from 3.  The Wizards and Warriors have combined for 235 or more points in nine consecutive meetings, making for a 9-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 232-point total.  It should be more of the same in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +14

The Washington Wizards are still playing hard despite going 1-16 SU in their last 17 games overall.  They are coming off a 133-110 win over the Jazz, and they are fresh and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They are also 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall with just three losses by more than 13 points during this stretch.

The Wizards only lost 125-117 at home to the Warriors on March 16th less than two weeks ago.  They only lost by 8 despite shooting just 28.1% from 3.  They have shot better than 30% from 3 in 11 of their last 13 games, so they are shooting it well overall and should have some positive shooting regression in their favor in the rematch tonight to stay within this inflated 14-point spread.

The Warriors have no business being 14-point favorites against anyone right now.  They remain without Curry, Butler, Moody, Post and Horford tonight.  They have gone just 10-19 SU & 10-19 ATS in their last 29 games overall, including 3-9 SU & 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games.  Their home-court advantage is gone when Curry doesn't play as fans only show up to see him.

The Warriors are also a tired team right now playing their 8th game in 13 days with six of their last seven games on the road.  They may win tonight, but they only beat the Nets by 3 as 12.5-point favorites in their last game, and the Wizards are better than the Nets right now.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Mavs/Blazers OVER 239.5

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team going 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 240 or more combined points in all seven games.  They have gone for 232 or more combined points in nine consecutive games now.  They are going more small ball with the players that are available, and they rank 5th in pace this season so they are playing fast and small ball, which is a recipe for OVERS.

Dallas is coming off a 142-135 loss in regulation to Denver for 277 combined points.  It was their 7th consecutive game with 240 or more combined points, so this total of 239.5 is actually short for a game involving the Mavericks right now.

The Blazers rank 7th in pace this season.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time, which has led to some great offensive numbers in recent games.  They scored 134 points on Brooklyn and 130 on Milwaukee in their last two games.  They will likely get 130-plus again tonight to lead the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.

The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between the Mavericks and Blazers.  They have gone for 240 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Jazz/Nuggets OVER 248.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team no matter who they have on the court.  They rank 2nd in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  The Jazz recently went for 270 combined points with the Raptors, and they have gone for 242 or more combined points in four of their last five contests.  They are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall.

The Denver Nuggets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in offensive rating and 21st in defensive rating this season.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time and thriving offensively right now.

The Nuggets and their opponents have gone for at least 233 combined points in 11 of their last 13 games overall.  They are coming off a 125-123 win in Phoenix for 248 combined points and a 142-135 win over the Mavs for 277 combined points, and they have gone for at least 240 combined points in 8 of their last 11 games.

The Jazz and Nuggets have combined for at least 247 points in three of their last four meetings, topping this number twice.  This total of 248.5 even though it sounds high, isn't high enough for a game involving the Jazz and Nuggets in their current state.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Clippers/Pacers OVER 237.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team going 14-3 OVER in their last 17 games overall.  They are absolutely tanking and just quit playing defense.  They have allowed at least 123 points in 15 of their last 17 games, including 126 or more points in 13 of those.  

The Pacers have gone for at least 231 combined points in 15 of those 17 games with their opponents.  That includes 246 or more combined points in six straight games coming in.  They are much healthier now with Siakam, Nembhard and Nesmith playing so their offense has really improved during this stretch.  This total of 237.5 is very low for a game involving the Pacers in their current state.

The Clippers are playing faster and thriving offensively with Leonard, Garland and Mathurin healthy at the same time.  They have scored at least 115 points in eight of their last 11 games overall.  They will hang a big number on the Pacers tonight to lead the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* St. John's/Duke Sweet 16 ANNIHILATOR on St. John's +7

Duke is extremely vulnerable right now without its best 3-point shooter in Caleb Foster (8.5 PPG, 40.2% 3-pointers) and a hobbled C Patrick Ngongba Jr. (10.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG), who returned in their last game after sitting out the ACC Tournament but only played 13 minutes.  The Blue Devils have gone 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall without these guys.

Duke beat FSU by 1, was fortunate to cover in a 12-point win over Clemson, beat Virginia by 4 and then beat Siena by 6 as 28.5-point favorites in the Round of 64.  The Blue Devils trailed most that game and it wasn't decided until the final seconds.  That was a Siena team that played all 5 starters 40 minutes, too.

I think Duke is getting too much respect from its misleading 81-58 blowout of TCU last round.  That was a 44-44 tie game with under 14 minutes to go before Duke started getting all of the calls with TCU in foul trouble.  Everything went Duke's way down the stretch as TCU went ice cold, and Duke lived at the FT line.

I also think we are getting value on St. John's from its misleading 67-65 win over Kansas last round.  St. John's was in control the whole way and led by 13 with under 7 minutes remaining before a ferocious comeback by Kansas.

St. John's is 21-1 SU in its last 22 games overall with its only loss coming at UConn.  They went 3-0 in the Big East Tournament with three double-digit blowout victories, including a 20-point win over UConn in the rematch for the title.  They beat Northern Iowa by 26 in the opening round with UNI being a popular underdog pick.  And a win over that Kansas team is a good win.  No question Rick Pitino will have his guys believing they can beat Duke here.

Teams riding a 6-plus game winning streak entering the Sweet 16 as underdogs have gone 41-16-2 ATS since 2005 and 30-7 ATS since 2011.  FSU, Virginia and Siena all stayed within this 7-point spread against Duke recently, and St. John's is much better than all three of those teams.  The value is clearly there to pull the trigger on the Red Storm in this one.  Bet St. John's Friday.

20* NCAA Tournament TOTAL OF THE WEEK on St. John's/Duke UNDER 142.5

Two of the best defensive teams in the country square off in the Sweet 16 when Duke takes on St. John's.  Duke ranks 1st in adjusted defense while St. John's ranks 8th.  Duke also ranks 281st in adjusted tempo and will control the tempo in this one.

Both teams are elite at forcing opponents to beat them from the outside or from the midrange without giving up anything at the rim.  And with Duke's most important defender in C Patrick Ngonba Jr. back from injury, they will be even stronger inside.  Both teams struggle shooting the 3-pointers as St. John's ranks 218th in the country at 33.2% and Duke is 142nd at 34.6%.  Duke is even worse off offensively now without Caleb Foster (8.5 PPG, 40.2% 3-pointers), their best 3-point shooter.

The Red Storm are 9-3 UNDER in their last 12 games overall.  They went for 124 combined points with UConn in the Big East Championship Game, 132 combined points with Northern Iowa in their NCAA Tournament opener and 132 combined points with Kansas last round.  This total of 142.5 is very high for a game involving St. John's right now.

Duke is 24-12 UNDER in all games this season largely due to that top-ranked defense and playing at such a slow tempo.  The Blue Devils are 12-5 UNDER in their last 17 games with 139 or fewer combined points in 12 of those 17 games.  This total of 142.5 is also too high for a game involving Duke right now.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas +8.5

John Calipari is 8-0 ATS in his last eight NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.  With Kentucky and Arkansas, Calipari is 12-0 ATS as an underdog in the NCAA Tournament or SEC Tournament.  I love backing Calipari in this role as the hunter, and hate backing him in the big favorite role as the hunted.

Arkansas is 7-0 SU in its last seven games overall.  Teams riding a 6-plus game winning streak entering the Sweet 16 as underdogs have gone 41-16-2 ATS since 2005 and 30-7 ATS since 2011.  The value is clearly there to pull the trigger on Arkansas.

Arkansas has wins over Texas, Missouri and Vanderbilt during this stretch.  They beat Hawaii by 19 and High Point by 6 to open the Big Dance.  I think that close result against High Point is keeping people off Arkansas, but High Point beat Wisconsin the game prior and was the most impressive mid major in the NCAA Tournament in my opinion.

Arizona has won 11 consecutive games with some good fortune in close games.  The Wildcats have five wins by 7 points or fewer during this stretch, a 10-point win over Colorado and a 12-point win over Utah State last round.  That was a 4-point game late before Arizona pulled away at the foul line in the final seconds for a 12-point victory over the Aggies.

Arkansas has the athletes and the heigh to match up with Arizona.  The Wildcats rank 7th in the country in average height and have had the advantage inside against almost everyone.  That advantage is much less here against Arkansas, which ranks 34th in average height and has elite wing span, most notably from F Trevon Brazile (13.2 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.7 BPG) and Malique Ewin (9.9 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.1 BPG).  And Nick Pringle (4.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG) should be back for this game after sitting out the first two games with a hamstring injury to give Arkansas some depth.

I will take Arkansas' guards over Arizona's guards all day, and guards are what wins in the NCAA Tournament.  Darius Acuff Jr. (23.3 PPG, 6.5 APG, 44.6% 3-pointers is the best offensive player in the country.  He has scored at least 24 points in six consecutive games and has upped his game when his teams needs him most.  Meleek Thomas (15.6 PPG, 42% 3-pointers) and Billy Richmond (11.1 PPG) both get slept on due to what Acuff is doing.

This is the largest underdog role for John Calipari in 85 NCAA Tournament games with his biggest coming as a +7.5 dog with UMass way back in 1996.  Tommy Lloyd has never been past the Sweet 16 as a head coach, going 0-3 SU in three previous tries with two outright losses as a favorite.  This is a game the Razorbacks are clearly capable of winning outright.  I think they're the most underrated team left in the Big Dance.  Bet Arkansas Thursday.

15* Sweet 16 Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Arkansas/Arizona OVER 165

The books just can't set these Arkansas totals high enough.  The Razorbacks are 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall finishing with 172 or more combined points in nine of those 11 games.  This total of 165 is very short for a game involving the Razorbacks.

Arkansas ranks 17th in adjusted tempo, 5th in adjusted offense and 53rd in adjusted defense.  The Razorbacks are going to score on anyone, but they are also going to get scored on because they don't defend the rim very well.  Arkansas is averaging 90.3 points per game this season while ranking 10th in 3-point shooting at 38.7%.  They are so tough to defend because they shoot it so well from outside and get to the rim at will on opponents with elite guard play.

Arizona will gladly run with Arkansas.  The Wildcats rank 65th in adjusted tempo and 4th in adjusted offense.  We've seen them get in shootouts with three other SEC opponents this season.  They went for 180 combined points with Florida, 165 with Auburn and 171 with Alabama.  It will be more of the same here against Arkansas, which I believe has a better offense and worse defense than all three of those teams.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Knicks/Hornets NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte PK

The Charlotte Hornets have gone 22-6 SU & 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games overall.  They have pulled to within 2.5 games of the Atlanta Hawks for 1st place in the Southeast Division.  They are playing inspired basketball to try and pass up the Heat, Magic and Hawks within the division.

The spot really favors the Hornets.  They are fully healthy and will be playing just their 6th game in 15 days.  This extra rest has led to four straight blowout wins over the Heat by 30, the Magic by 19, the Grizzlies by 23 and the Kings by 44.  The starting 5 of Miller, Ball, Knueppel, Bridges and Diabate has been the best lineup in the NBA this season, and now they have scoring punch off the bench with Coby White.

The Knicks have also won 7 straight but they have been much more competitive games.  And six of those wins came against non-playoff teams, while the only game against a potential playoff team was a 3-point home win over the Warriors as 14.5-point favorites.  They have gone just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall.

The Knicks are 20-16 SU & 14-22 ATS on the road this season with a big home/road split.  They are without two key role players in Miles McBride and Landry Shamet, so they don't have much depth behind Jalen Brunson.  The Hornets prove they are for real once again with a home win over the Knicks tonight.  Bet the Hornets Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans +5

The New Orleans Pelicans are 10-6 SU & 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall and absolute covering machines right now.  They only have two losses by more than 5 points in their last 16 games, so they have been competitive even in defeat.  They have no incentive to tank since they don't have their draft pick.

While the Pelicans are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, the Pistons are a tired, short-handed team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Not only that, they are coming off an OT loss to the Hawks last night.

Duren played 42 minutes, Jenkins 44, Thompson 37 and Harris 35 minutes last night.  The Pistons are without Cade Cunningham, so they shouldn't be favored by 5 here without him.  Especially if the Pistons decide to rest some guys in this very difficult rest situation.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Mavericks +12.5

This is a very tough spot for the Denver Nuggets.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 125-123 win in Phoenix last night.  They will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days.  Four starters played at least 32 minutes for the Nuggets last night, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank for this one.

The perception that Dallas is tanking is giving up more points here than they should be getting.  They clearly aren't tanking intentionally as they are coming off two straight OT losses to the Clippers and Warriors, two playoff contenders.  They are pretty healthy with Cooper Flagg, and you can tell he and his teammates are trying hard night in and night out when you watch them.

That effort should be there tonight against the Nuggets, who the Mavericks have actually matched up well against this season.  They pulled the outright upset in the two meetings in which Nikola Jokic played for the Nuggets.  They won 131-121 as 11.5-point road dogs and 131-130 as 6.5-point home dogs.  They will take the tired Nuggets to the wire again tonight.  This will be just the 3rd game in 7 days for Dallas.  Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Nuggets OVER 244.5

The Denver Nuggets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in offensive rating and 21st in defensive rating this season.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time and thriving offensively right now.

The Nuggets and their opponents have gone for at least 233 combined points in 10 of their last 12 games overall.  They are coming off a 125-123 win in Phoenix for 248 combined points, and they have gone for at least 240 combined points in seven of their last 10 games.

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team going 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 240 or more combined points in all six games.  They have gone for 232 or more combined points in eight consecutive games now.  They are going more small ball with the players that are available, and they rank 5th in pace this season so they are playing fast and small ball, which is a recipe for OVERS.

In the two meetings between the Mavs and Nuggets this season in which Nikola Jokic played in, they were both very high-scoring games.  Dallas won 131-121 for 252 combined points on the road in a game that only saw 46 combined points in the 4th quarter to boot.  Dallas won 131-130 at home for 261 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Wizards/Jazz OVER 238.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 6th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They have really quit playing defense in the midst of their tanking 16-game losing streak.  They have allowed 117 or more points in 16 of their last 17 games overall.

The OVER is 10-3 in Wizards last 13 games overall with 234 or more combined points in 11 of those 13 games.  They are coming off 258 combined points with the Knicks and 243 with the Thunder with 242 or more combined points in four of their last five games overall.

The Utah Jazz are 26-11 OVER at home this season.  They rank 2nd in pace and 29th in defensive rating for a very similar profile to the Wizards.  The Jazz went for 270 combined points with the Raptors in their last game, and they have gone for 242 or more combined points in three of their last four contests.

It's safe to say this game will see a ton of possessions and zero defense.  The end result will be this game sailing OVER this 238.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Heat/Cavs Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on OVER 242.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace this season and are fully healthy right now with their full compliment of weapons.  They are a potent offensive team when that's the case, but they have really slipped defensively.

The Heat are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games overall finishing with 231 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.  They have gone for 242 or more combined points in four straight games coming in, so this total of 242.5 isn't that high for a game involving Miami right now.

That's especially the case when you consider their opponent in the Cavaliers, who have gone 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall with 239 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  They are coming off a 136-131 win over the Magic last night for 267 combined points.  That's a Magic team that was without three of their top five scorers.

The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Heat and Cavaliers.  In their two meetings this season, they combined for 278 and 246 points.  The 278 was in OT, but that was at 256 at the end of regulation.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Indiana Pacers +11

The Indiana Pacers 3-0 ATS in their last three games with covers against the Magic, Blazers and Spurs, and they recently only lost by 9 to the Knicks to get the cover as well.  While they are tanking, they have stayed reasonably competitive, and this 11-point spread against the Lakers is a couple notches too high.

The Pacers have Siakam, Nesmith and Nembhard back healthy and playing.  Siakam had 37 points to lead the Pacers to a 128-126 road win at Orlando as 10.5-point dogs last time out.  While they have been tanking, they are clearly playing harder than they get credit for with these double-digits spreads.

The Lakers had their 9-game winning streak come to an end with a 113-110 loss in Detroit against a Pistons team that was without Cade Cunningham.  I always like fading teams in that first game after having a long winning streak snapped.  There tends to be a hangover effect.

The Lakers have been very fortunate in close games all season and each of their last five wins during their 9-game winning streak came by 8 points or fewer.  They aren't blowing anyone out.  And without two of their best defenders in Marcus Smart and Rui Hachimura tonight, plus DeAndre Ayton questionable, the Lakers are very short-handed.  They lost to the Pistons in their first game without Smart in a while, and he is their glue guy that will be missed trying to defend all these Pacers' guards.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Lakers/Pacers OVER 237.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team going 13-3 OVER in their last 16 games overall.  They are absolutely tanking and just quit playing defense.  They have allowed at least 123 points in 14 of their last 16 games, including 126 or more points in 12 of those.  

The Pacers have gone for at least 231 combined points in 14 of those 16 games with their opponents.  That includes 246 or more combined points in five straight games coming in.  They are much healthier now with Siakam, Nembhard and Nesmith playing so their offense has really improved during this stretch.  This total of 237.5 is very low for a game involving the Pacers in their current state.

The Lakers are an elite offensive team as long as Doncic and Reaves are healthy and playing, which they have been here down the stretch.  But the Lakers are down two of their best defenders in Marcus Smart and Rui Hachimura right now, making them even more of an OVER team.  The Lakers have scored at least 120 points in five of their last eight games overall and will hang a big number on the Pacers tonight.  

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 239 or more combined points in all three meetings.  They have gone for 239 or more combined points in four of their last five metings as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Nuggets/Suns NBC No-Brainer on OVER 232.5

The Denver Nuggets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in offensive rating and 21st in defensive rating this season.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time and thriving offensively right now.

The Nuggets and their opponents have gone for at least 233 combined points in nine of their last 11 games overall, so this total of 232.5 is very short for a game involving the Nuggets right now.

The Suns are having to go more small ball without Mark Williams and Dillon Brooks right now, which are also two key defenders.  I think the fact that they have gone under the total in four consecutive games coming into this one is keeping this total lower than it should be.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Nuggets and Suns with 242 or more combined points in all three.  Two of those meetings happened earlier this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Knicks OVER 231.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 11th in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  They have a very competent offense right now with how healthy they are.  Their top 8 scorers are all healthy and expected to play tonight, and there's a lot of talent there with Murphy, Williamson, Murray and Bey leading the way.

The New York Knicks rank 3rd in offensive rating this season and will hang a big number on the Pelicans tonight.  They have scored 134 or more points four times in their last nine games.  They have gone for 244 or more combined points in five of their last nine games.

The Pelicans have actually gone under the total in five consecutive games, but they have played a lot of good defensive teams and slow-paced teams during this stretch.  They have still gone for at least 233 combined points in six of their last nine games overall, so this total of 231.5 is pretty low for a game involving the Pelicans and Knicks right now.  

New York beat New Orleans 130-125 for 255 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Charlotte Hornets -17

The Charlotte Hornets have gone 21-6 SU & 18-9 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  They have pulled to within 2.5 games of the Atlanta Hawks for 1st place in the Southeast Division.  They are playing inspired basketball to try and pass up the Heat, Magic and Hawks within the division.

The spot really favors the Hornets.  They are fully healthy and will be playing just their 5th game in 13 days.  They had the last two days off, and this extra rest has led to three straight blowout wins over the Heat by 30, the Magic by 19 and the Grizzlies by 23.  The starting 5 of Miller, Ball, Knueppel, Bridges and Diabate has been the best lineup in the NBA this season, and now they have scoring punch off the bench with Coby White.

The Kings are blatantly tanking tonight.  They will be without 9 key players in LaVine, Westbrook, Clifford, Murray, Eubanks, Sabonis, Hunter, Hayes and Achiuwa tonight.  They'll be without five of their top six scorers and some of the other pieces that have taken their place and kept them somewhat competitive.  They won't be competitive tonight with this G League lineup they are putting on the court.  Bet the Hornets Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Mavericks OVER 230.5

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team going 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 240 or more combined points in all five games.  They have gone for 232 or more combined points in seven consecutive games now.  They are going more small ball with the players that are available, and this total of 230.5 is very low for a game involving Dallas right now.

The Golden State Warriors have quietly gone 13-5 OVER in their last 18 games overall.  They have still been scoring without Steph Curry, but their defense has taken a major hit without Jimmy Butler.  They have gone for 235 or more combined points in five of their last eight games overall.  This total of 230.5 is also short for a game involving the Warriors right now.

That's especially the case with the Warriors much healthier than they have been in a long time tonight.  Key offensive weapons in Porzingis (16.5 PPG) and Melton (13.3 PPG) will be back tonight, and Moody (11.9 PPG) has been upgraded to questionable.  The Warriors are also playing small ball right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Atlanta Hawks -13.5

The Atlanta Hawks are 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall and playing as well as anyone in the NBA.  Amazingly, all 12 wins have come by 9 points or more so they are absolutely obliterating the opposition.

The Hawks are showing what they are capable of when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They are also playing motivated basketball currently sitting in 6th place in the East and in 1st place in the Southeast Division.  But they have no margin for error with the Magic, Heat and Hornets all within 2 games of them within their division.  So there will be no letdown tonight.

The tanking Memphis Grizzlies have gone 1-10 SU in their last 11 games overall.  They have been particularly poor on the road, going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five road games with their lone cover coming in a 16-point loss at Detroit as 16.5-point dogs.  They lost by 23 in Charlotte and by 25 in Chicago in their last two road games.

The Grizzlies are blatantly tanking when you look at their injury report with 10 players out.  They are basically fielding a G league team right now.  Bet the Hawks Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Magic OVER 231.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team going 12-3 OVER in their last 15 games overall.  They are absolutely tanking and just quit playing defense.  They have allowed at least 123 points in 13 of their last 15 games, including 127 or more points in 11 of those.  They have gone for at least 231 combined points in 13 of those 15 games with their opponents.

The Orlando Magic have gone 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall.  They have gone for 236 or more combined points in five of their last seven games.  This total of 231.5 is very short for a game involving the Pacers and Magic right now.

The Magic won 135-127 for 262 combined points in their most recent meeting in Orlando on January 4th.  It will be more of the same tonight and another shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* George Washington/New Mexico NIT No-Brainer on OVER 161.5

New Mexico is a dead nuts OVER team going 23-10 OVER in all games this season including 12-5 OVER in all home games.  The Lobos rank 48th in adjusted tempo and 59th in adjusted offense.  They are coming off a 107-83 home win over Sam Houston State for 190 combined points.  They are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall.

George Washington also profiles as an OVER team ranking 83rd in adjusted tempo, 58th in adjusted offense and 140th in adjusted defense.  The Revolutionaries went for 169 combined points with St. Louis in the Atlantic 10 Tournament and 157 with Utah Valley in the NIT opener.  They will get in another shootout with the Lobos tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Wizards/Knicks OVER 226.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 6th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They have really quit playing defense in the midst of their tanking 15-game losin g streak.  They have allowed 117 or more points in 15 of their last 16 games overall.

The OVER is 9-3 in Wizards last 12 games overall with 234 or more combined points in 10 of those 12 games.  This total of 226.5 is very short for a game involving the Wizards right now.

The Knicks rank 3rd in offensive rating this season and will hang a big number on the Wizards to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.  That happened in their most recent meeting on February 3rd when the Knicks won 132-101 for 233 combined points.  The Knicks and Wizards have combined for at least 225 points five times in going 4-1-1 OVER in their last six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Iowa/Florida South Region ANNIHILATOR on Florida -10.5

The Florida Gators are 13-1 in their last 14 games overall with 10 wins by 13 points or more.  The defending champs will make easy work of an overmatched opponent today in Iowa.  They beat Prairie View A&M 114-55 in the opener and that allowed them to rest their starters in the 2H to stay fresh for this game against Iowa.

The Hawkeyes were in a 67-61 dog fight with Clemson on Friday and won't be nearly as fresh, especially since they have such a short rotation anyway.  The ACC has looked terrible in the NCAA Tournament, so that win over Clemson wasn't all that impressive, especially with the Tigers down a starting big man.

This is a terrible matchup for Iowa.  The Hawkeyes' weakness is their lack of big men.  They ranks 177th in offensive rebound rate and 69th in defensive rebound rate.  Florida ranks 2nd in offensive rebound rate and 7th in defensive rebound rate.  Iowa can't hang with these Florida big men, which are arguably the best in the country.

This will feel like a home game for the Gators being played in Tampa.  Iowa doesn't have the firepower on offense to keep up, either.  They will get down big and it will be over quickly.  Bet Florida Sunday.

20* UNLV/Tulsa NIT No-Brainer on OVER 160.5

Tulsa is a dead nuts OVER team going 22-10 OVER in all games including 11-3 OVER in home games.  The Golden Hurricane rank 140th in adjusted tempo, 34th in adjusted offense and 146th in adjusted defense.  They rank 23rd in effective FG percentage on offense and 5th in 3-point percentage (39%) as they have elite shooters across the board.

UNLV is a dead nuts OVER team going 20-13 OVER in all games this season including 10-4 OVER in its last 14 games overall.  The Rebels rank 49th in adjusted tempo, 82nd in adjusted offense and 161st in adjusted defense.  This looks like the perfect matchup for a high-scoring NIT game tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* St. John's/Kansas East Region No-Brainer on UNDER 144.5

Kansas is a dead nuts UNDER team going 23-11 UNDER in all games this season.  The Jayhawks rank 9th in adjusted defense and can defend as well as almost anyone.  But they really struggle on offense, and that has been on display.

Kansas lost 69-47 to Houston in the Big 12 Tournament for just 116 combined points.  The Jayhawks came back with a 68-60 win over Cal Baptist for just 128 combined points in the opening round.  This total of 144.5 is very high for a game involving the Jayhawks.

St. John's ranks 10th in adjusted defense, and like Kansas, the Red Storm are much better on defense than they are on offense.  The Red Storm are 8-3 UNDER in their last 11 games overall.  They went for 124 combined points with UConn in the Big East Championship Game and 132 combined points with Northern Iowa in their NCAA Tournament opener.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* High Point/Arkansas CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 168.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in the Round of 32 when Arkansas takes on High Point.  Arkansas ranks 20th in adjusted tempo and 4th in adjusted offense, but just 50th in adjusted defense.  High Point ranks 44th in adjusted tempo, 64th in adjusted offense and 143rd in adjusted defense.

Arkansas is coming off a 97-78 win over Hawaii for 175 combined points.  Pretty impressive considering Arkansas shot just 4-of-21 (19%) from 3-point range while Hawaii shot 10-of-30 (33.3%), so neither team shot it that well.  There were only 21 made free throws between them, too, so the points weren't aided by fouls.  It was just a fast-paced game and a layup line for Arkansas.

High Point is 20-12 OVER in all games this season.  The Panthers are coming off a 83-82 upset win over Wisconsin for 165 combined points.  Wisconsin is a poor man's Arkansas in terms of playing with pace and great offense.  High Point went for 168 combined points with Furman, 165 with UAB, 170 with Illinois-Chicago and 170 with Southern Illinois in the non-conference.

High Point ranks 329th in average height and will get killed inside and at the rim by Arkansas, which is also an elite 3-point shooting team.  The Razorbacks will get whatever they want.  But High Point's frantic, 3-point happy style will give Arkansas problems as well with only one day to prepare for it.  The end result will be a shootout that sails OVER this 168.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Vanderbilt/Nebraska South Region No-Brainer on Vanderbilt -2.5

Nebraska can hang with teams who aren't very athletic like Troy.  The Huskers made easy work of the Trojans in the Round of 64 to get their first NCAA Tournament win in program history.  I can only think it's a letdown spot off such a monumental victory for the program.

Now they take a big step up in class here against a very athletic team in Vanderbilt.  The Commodores beat Tennessee by 7 and Florida by 17 before falling to Arkansas in the SEC Championship Game.  Arkansas shot 15-of-24 (62.5%) from 3 and there wasn't much they could do.

After a slow start with perhaps a bit of a hangover from that SEC Championship game loss, Vanderbilt crushed McNeese State in the 2nd half and pulled away for a double-digit victory.  McNeese State was a very athletic team that put the pressure on Vanderbilt.  This non-athletic Nebraska team will be much easier for them to handle.

Vanderbilt went 16-0 to open this season with a perfect non-conference record.  That included wins over VCU by 15, St. Mary's by 27 and SMU by 19.  That St. Mary's game is a perfect comp for Nebraska, an unathletic team that likes to milk the shot clock and rely on good defense.  But Nebraska doesn't have the offense to match Vanderbilt.

The Commodores rank 8th in the country in adjusted offense and have been even better since getting Duke Miles (16.4 PPG) back healthy for the stretch run.  Nebraska ranks 54th in adjusted offense this season.  They are very easy to defend, much easier than the teams that Vanderbilt faced in the SEC gauntlet.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Spurs OVER 232.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team going 11-3 OVER in their last 14 games overall.  They are absolutely tanking and just quit playing defense.  They have allowed at least 123 points in 12 of their last 14 games, including 127 or more points in 10 of those.  They have gone for at least 231 combined points in 12 of those 14 games with their opponents.

The Spurs have gone 5-3 OVER in their last eight games overall with 234 or more combined points in five of their last seven games.  They have scored at least 115 points in nine of their last 10 games overall and will hang a big number on the Pacers to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Pelicans OVER 234.5

The Pelicans ranks 11th in pace and 24th in defensive rating this season.  The Cavaliers rank 13th in pace and 13th in defensive rating.  But the Cavs are 6th in offensive rating this season and 4th in their last 14 games, while the Pelicans are 9th in offensive rating in their last 14 games.

The Pelicans are showing what they are capable of offensively right now due to being one of the healthiest teams in the NBA.  They have scored at least 115 points in nine of their last 12 games, including 122 or more six of those.  They will hang a big number on the Cavaliers tonight.

Cleveland has to go more small ball without C Jarrett Allen right now.  The offense has been potent scoring 120 or more points in four of their last five, but the defense has taken a big hit allowing 117.8 points per game in their last five games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +5

The New Orleans Pelicans have gone 10-4 SU & 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall with two of those losses coming by exactly 2 points.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NBA and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  They also have no incentive to tank, so they are playing hard night in and night out.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have gone 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They are without Jarrett Allen (15.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG), and both Donavan Mitchell (28.0 PPG) and Jaylon Tyson (13.1 PPG) are questionable to pay tonight.  Not having Allen is a big blow with what he brings defensively and his versatility in the pick and roll game.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

20* TCU/Duke East Region No-Brainer on TCU +11.5

Duke is extremely vulnerable without two starters in C Patrick Ngongba Jr. (10.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG) and Caleb Foster (8.5 PPG).  The Blue Devils have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall without those guys.

Duke beat FSU by 1, was fortunate to cover in a 12-point win over Clemson, beat Virginia by 4 and then beat Siena by 6 as 28.5-point favorites in the Round of 64.  The Blue Devils trailed most that game and it wasn't decided until the final seconds.  That was a Siena team that played all 5 starters 40 minutes, too.

TCU has gone toe-to-toe with some of the best teams in the country this season and will not be scared of Duke.  TCU only lost by 4 to Michigan, upset Florida and Wisconsin, and beat Iowa State, Texas Tech and Ohio State.  They have the physicality to match Duke and actually be the more physical team, especially without Ngonba on the court for the Blue Devils.  Bet TCU Saturday.

20* Louisville/Michigan State East Region No-Brainer on Michigan State -4

It's been a bad look for the ACC to this point in the Tournament going 0-7 ATS as of this writing.  I don't think Louisville is the team to buck that trend, especially playing without Mikel Brown Jr. (18.2 PPG).

Louisville only beat South Florida by 4 despite shooting 13-of-25 (52%) from 3-point range.  They also only won by 4 despite USF shooting a woeful 5-of-33 (15.2%) from 3-point rangers, including 0-11 from and only 4 points form their best player in Wes Enis.

Now the Cardinals take a big step up in class here against Michigan State.  The Spartans only lost one game in the non-conference this season and it came by 6 against Duke.  They made easy work of North Dakota State 92-67 as 16.5-point favorites in the Round of 64.

That gives the Spartans an advantage as they did not have to stress late in that game against NDSU, while Louisville was life and death with USF.  The Cardinals being short-handed without Brown here playing their 2nd game in 3 days really hurts them.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks +4.5

The Atlanta Hawks have gone 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all 11 wins coming by 9 points or more.  They are showing what they are capable of when they are as healthy as they are, and the trade for CJ McCollum has made a huge difference for them.

The Hawks sit in 6th place in the East and tied with the Magic for 1st place in the Southeast Division.  They are also 0.5 games ahead of the Heat and 2.5 ahead of the Hornets in that same division in a tight race.  They will be max motivated tonight.

The Hawks have also taken advantage of being rested and will be playing just their 8th game in 19 days tonight.  They take on a reeling, overrated Houston Rockets team that is just 11-25 ATS in their last 36 games overall.  That includes 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.  Bet the Hawks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Grizzlies OVER 227.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 10th in pace and 22nd in defensive rating this season.  They have gone 5-3 OVER in their last eight games overall while going for 232 or more combined points in all eight games, making for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 227.5-point total tonight.

The Grizzlies are tanking and have quit playing defense.  They have allowed 117 or more points in nine consecutive games now.  And it won't get any better tonight going up against the Celtics, who rank 2nd in offensive rating this season and are gaining chemistry with Jayson Tatum's return to the lineup.

The Celtics have scored 117 or more points on the Grizzlies in four consecutive meetings, including 131 in their first meeting this season.  They will hang a big number on Memphis to lead the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.  Memphis is coming off a 125-118 win over Denver and should do enough offensively to contribute as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Queens/Purdue OVER 162

Queens is a dead nuts OVER team going 21-12 OVER in all games this season including 9-3 OVER in non-conference games against teams that aren't familiar with them.  Queens ranks 64th in adjusted tempo and 28th in average length of offensive possession so they are just looking to get shots up as quickly as possible.

They have done so very efficiently ranking 78th in adjusted offense and 15th in effective FG percentage this season.  They rank 35th in 3-point rate attempting them on 46.8% of possessions while ranking 67th hitting them at a 35.9% clip.  They average 84.9 points per game this season.

The problem for Queens is they play no defense, allowing 82.9 points per game this season.  They rank 320th in adjusted defense, and 301st in effective FG percentage defense.  They played five Power 4 teams this season in Villanova, Virginia, Wake Forest, Arkansas and Auburn.  They allowed at least 94 points to all five and an average of 102.6 points per game in those five games.  The OVER went 4-1 in those five games with 163 or more combined points in all five.

Purdue will likely get to 100 in this one.  The Boilermakers rank 1st in the entire country in offensive efficiently.  They rank 10th in effective FG percentage and 19th in 3-point percentage.  But the Boilermakers have one of their worst defenses of the Matt Painter era.  They rank 232nd in effective FG percentage defense and 196th defending the 3-pointer.  

Purdue played three teams with similar profiles to Queens that like to play fast, efficient offense and suspect defense in the non-conference.  They went for 164 combined points with Oakland, 167 with Alabama and 166 with Akron.  Queens will do enough offensively to get us this OVER 162 tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Miami Ohio/Tennessee Midwest Region No-Brainer on OVER 148.5

This is a very low total for a game involving Miami Ohio.  The Redhawks go 5 out with five 3-point shooters on the court at all times.  They are an elite offensive team but a mediocre defensive team, and that formula usually yields shootouts.

They rank 61st in adjusted offense, 5th in effective FG percentage and 22nd in 3-point percentage as they have been riding their offense all season.  But they are just 152nd in adjusted defense, which is why they have found themselves in so many close games all season.

Miami is 18-12 OVER in all games this season including 3-0 on neutral courts.  Miami has played 33 games this season, and 29 of those saw at least 146 combined points, with 26 of them seeing 149 or more combined points which would top this 148.5-point total.

Tennessee has played 33 games this season with 21 of those seeing 146 or more combined points.  The Vols got Nate Ament (17.5 PPG) back healthy for the SEC Tournament, and he pairs with Ja'Kobi Gillespie (18.0 PPG) as one of the best guard tandems in the country.  They will both have big days against Miami's soft defense.

Tennessee ranks 1st in the country grabbing 45.1% of its own misses on offense.  The Vols are going to dominate the Redhawks on the glass in this game and get plenty of easy put backs.  The Redhawks lack size inside which is their biggest weakness.  But Tennessee may also have to go more small ball to match Miami in this one as well, which would lead to a more up-tempo, higher scoring game.  Either way, I think we easily top 148.5 combined points in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Utah State/Villanova West Region ANNIHILATOR on Utah State ML -125

Utah State went 28-6 this season and was the clear best team in the Mountain West.  The Aggies proved it in the MWC Tournament going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with a 20-point win at UNLV, a 13-point win over Nevada and a 11-point win over San Diego State.

Utah State was also very impressive in the non-conference.  The Aggies opened 15-1 this season with their lone loss coming on the road at South Florida, which nearly upset Louisville in the NCAA Tournament.  They beat VCU by 3, Davidson by 34 and Tulane by 21 all on neutrals.  They won by 26 at Charlotte as well.

Utah State is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS on neutral courts.  This is a neutral court they will be familiar with as it will be played at Viejas Arena, home of the San Diego State Aztecs.  That's a hidden advantage for the Aggies in this game.

That's especially the case with Villanova having to travel across the country to San Diego for this game.  No question the Aggies will have the home-court advantage with many more fans making the trip.  And I think Utah State is just the better team, period.

The Big East is way down this season and Villanova was only the 3rd team from the conference to get in.  They lost to BYU by 5 on a neutral and to Michigan by 28 on the road in the non-conference.  The Wildcats only had one win over a team ranked higher than 97th in KenPom in the non-conference.  

Villanova also went 0-4 against UConn and St. John's this season.  The Wildcats were upset 78-64 by a short-handed Georgetown team in their Big East Tournament opener.  They are down a starter in Matthew Hodge (9.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG) who averages 27.6 minutes per game.  They can't afford to be without him because now they only have a 7-man rotation.  Utah State ranks better than Villanova on both sides of the court this season.  Bet Utah State on the Money Line Friday.

20* Hofstra/Alabama Midwest Region No-Brainer on Hofstra +12

Hofstra was impressive in the non-conference beating Penn by 17 on the road, upsetting Pitt by 7 on the road and upsetting Syracuse on the road.  The Pride also only lost by 4 at UCF as 9.5-point dogs for a good result against another NCAA Tournament team.

Hofstra has been absolutely dominant down the stretch going 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  The lone loss came at UNC-Wilmington by 4, which won the regular season CAA title and just beat Yale on the road in the NIT.  Seven of the 11 wins came by 9 points or more.

Hofstra plays the perfect style to compete with Alabama.  The Pride play very slow ranking 317th in adjusted tempo.  They ranks 3rd in the country in 2-point percentage defense (44.2%) and 77th defending the 3 (32.3%). They force teams to beat them from the midrange.

Alabama only shoots layups and 3's, playing right into the strengths of Hofstra.  The Crimson TIde also play zero defense ranking 67th in adjusted defense and 75th in effective FG percentage defense.  This is the worst defensive team of the Nate Oats era, which is saying a lot.

But the biggest reason I'm on Hofstra is due to Alabama's 2nd-leading scorer Aden Holloway (16.8 PPG) getting kicked off the team earlier this week due to legal issues.  Holloway is their best shooter hitting 43.8% from 3-point range and 86.4% from the FT line.  The Crimson Tide were a tough team to tame with Holloway and Labaron Philon (21.7 PPG) running the show, but now they are much easier to defend knowing that Hofstra can focus in on only having to stop Philon.

Hofstra ranks 51st rebounding 34.9% of its own misses on offense.  Alabama ranks 292nd in defensive rebounding allowing opponents to grab 32.8% of their own misses.  Hofstra is going to have a field day getting offensive rebounds and extra opportunities for points.  This is a terrible matchup for Alabama, and the Pride are live underdogs here in the Round of 64.  Bet Hofstra Friday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Akron +8.5

Texas Tech lost Jadyn Toppin (21.8 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 1.7 BPG) to a season-ending injury in a loss at Arizona State on February 17th.  With the injury, the Red Raiders' postseason hopes were absolutely crushed as he was one of the best players in the country.

The Red Raiders responded well initially without Toppin, beating Kansas State and Cincinnati at home and upsetting Iowa State on the road thanks to hot 3-point shooting in their first three games without him.  But they have come back down to reality since, losing by 8 as 8.5-point home favorites to TCU, losing by 6 as 2.5-point dogs and getting crushed in the rematch with Iowa State by 22 in the Big 12 Tournament.

In that loss to Iowa State, both G Christian Anderson (18.9 PPG, 7.4 APG) and F LeJuan Watts (11.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG) suffered injuries on the slick floor in the Big 12 Tournament.  The Big 12 elected to change back to a hardwood court the next round due to those injuries.  While Anderson and Watts are expected to play in this game against Akron, I can't think they will be 100%.

Akron was the best team in the MAC all season despite the fact that Miami went 31-0.  The Zips were the more dominant team, and they rank 30 spots higher than Miami in Kenpom.  They went 29-5 this season while ranking 54th in adjusted offense and 114th in adjusted defense.  Akron played a tough non-conference schedule to prepare them for the NCAA Tournament, too.

Akron's has an elite 5-out offense that can score on anyone.  Tavari Johnson (20.1 PPG, 5.0 APG), Amani Lyles (14.6 PPG, 8.0 RPG) and Shamah Scott (12.7 PPG, 42.2% 3-pointers) lead the way.  The Zips featured five of their top six scorers shooting at least 37.3% from 3-point range, and all seven top scorers shoot at least 31.1%.  So they can shoot it with anyone as they rank 8th in effective FG percentage and 14th in 3-point percentage in the country.

Akron's weakness is defending big men because they are a smaller, more athletic team.  This is where Toppin's absence really hurts.  They now match up very well with Texas Tech, which has had to deploy more small ball without Toppin inside.  He draws so much attention that he opens things up for everyone else.  Anderson has had 6 or more turnovers in four of his last seven games without Toppin.  He is being forced to do more and it's leading to a lot of empty possessions for the Red Raiders.  The Zips are a very live underdog in this game and I actually expect them to win outright.  Bet Akron Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -2.5

The spot really favors the Miami Heat tonight.  They will be motivated coming off consecutive losses to the Magic and Hornets within their division.  They now trail the Magic by 0.5 games for 1st place in the Southeast Division.

The Heat have had the last two days off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  This extra rest has allowed Bam Adebayo to get back healthy after sitting out the loss to the Hornets last game.  Norman Powell is back, and the only key player they are missing now is Andrew Wiggins.  They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, too.

This is a terrible spot for the Los Angeles Lakers.  They come in overvalued after going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with consecutive road wins over the Rockets following four straight home wins.  They beat the Rockets 124-116 last night.

Now the Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days.  All five starters played more than 33 minutes last nigh for the Lakers, and they aren't a very deep team.  At the very least I would expect LeBron James to sit this game, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's more.  They'll have nothing left in the tank for Miami tonight.  Bet the Heat Thursday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets -4

The Charlotte Hornets have gone 19-6 SU & 16-9 ATS in their last 25 games overall.  They have pulled to within 3.5 games of the Orlando Magic for 1st place in the Southeast Division.  They will be highly motivated to make that 2.5 games after tonight.

The spot really favors the Hornets.  They are fully healthy and will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days.  They are coming off a 136-106 home win over the Miami Heat.  The starting 5 of Miller, Ball, Knueppel, Bridges and Diabate has been the best lineup in the NBA this season, and now they have scoring punch off the bench with Coby White.

The Magic are a tired team playing their 6th game in 9 days.  They are coming off two tough losses to the Hawks and Thunder on a back-to-back Monday and Tuesday.  They remain without two of their top four scorers in Franz Wagner (21.3 PPG) and Anthony Black (15.3 PPG) tonight.

The Hornets crushed the Magic 124-97 and 120-105 in their last two meetings, both in Orlando since Christmas.  It will be more of the same tonight as the Hornets are the better, more rested, healthier team coming into this one.  Bet the Hornets Thursday.

20* NDSU/Michigan State East Region No-Brainer on UNDER 143.5

Michigan State is a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 253rd in adjusted tempo and 13th in adjusted defense.  Nothing comes easy against the Spartans and they don't allow 2nd chance opportunities ranking 1st in defensive rebound rate.

North Dakota State also plays slow ranking 239th in adjusted tempo.  The Bison were a great rebounding team this season but a lot of that was due to the opposition in the Summit League.  They won't get any easy 2nd chance points against Michigan State, and it will be a lot of one shot and done on offense for both teams as both are great rebounding teams.

North Dakota State is 11-4 UNDER in its last 15 games overall.  The Bison just went for 132 combined points with North Dakota, 124 with Omaha and 141 with Oral Roberts in their three Summit League Tournament games.  This total of 143.5 is very high for a game involving NDSU right now.

Michigan State has been in a lot of overs lately which has inflated this total.  But teams have shot 45.5% or better from 3 against them in four of their last five games.  That's unsustainable, especially since they were great at defending the 3 prior to that.  Even after that onslaught, the Spartans still rank 112th defending the 3 at 32.9% for the season.  The Bison will get nothing easy against them.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Line Mistake on Hawaii +15.5

I'm high on Arkansas and think they are as talented as anyone in the country.  They are very capable of making a deep run with that talent.  However, I am fading them in the Round of 64 due to the spot, which I think is being overlooked here as everyone is high on this team after winning the SEC Tournament.

Arkansas escaped with 3-point wins over Oklahoma and Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament before beating Vanderbilt 86-75 in the Championship Game on Sunday.  The Razorbacks shot 15-of-24 (62.5%) from 3-point range to beat Vanderbilt.  You tip your cap to them, but they aren't going to shoot that well again.

Now the Razorbacks are feeling 'fat and happy' after winning the SEC Tournament.  They probably think they can just show up and beat Hawaii.  They are going to be a tired team having to fly all the way out to Portland to play this afternoon game on Thursday.  They won't be prepared for Hawaii.

Hawaii only had to play two games to win the Big West Tournament after getting a bye into the semifinals.  And they were two of their best games of the season beating Fullerton 78-63 as 5.5-point favorites despite shooting just 13.6% from 3.  They beat UC-Irvine 71-64 as 1.5-point dogs in the Championship Game despite Irvine shooting 45.5% from 3.  Impressive results given the shooting numbers that went against them.

What I love about this matchup is that Hawaii actually has the height to defend Arkansas and won't be overwhelmed. Arkansas ranks 34th in the country in average height while Hawaii actually ranks 26th, so they are the taller team.  Hawaii is an elite defensive team as well.

The Rainbow Warriors rank 43rd in adjusted defense, 16th in effective FG percentage defense and 28th in 3-point percentage (30.7%) defense.  They take away the 3-pointer and are a versatile defense that can go zone if they need to to try and counter Arkansas' isolation-heavy attack.  They may just force Arkansas to hoist a ton of 3-pointers, and if they are off a little the Rainbow Warriors can hang.  Bet Hawaii Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Wisconsin -9.5

Wisconsin has gone 5-1 SU in its last six games against teams ranked inside the Top 10 in Kenpom.  The Badgers have wins over Illinois (twice), Purdue, Michigan State and Michigan during this stretch.  Their lone loss came by 3 to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament.

Amazingly, the Badgers have been dominant down the stretch despite playing without Nolan Winter (13.3 PPG, 8.6 RPG).  But Winter is expected back for the NCAA Tournament, and the Badgers are clearly capable of beating anyone at their best.

High Point is getting too much respect for its gaudy 30-4 record.  But the Panthers played the 341st ranked schedule in the country and didn't play anyone ranked in the Top 100 in Kenpom. They lost to the four of the five best teams they played in UAB, Southern Illinois, App State and Winthrop.

High Point is atrocious defensively ranking 161st in adjusted defense.  The Panthers rely heavily on forcing turnovers to help out their offense.  They rank 5th forcing turnovers on 21.9% of opponents possessions.  That makes this a nightmare matchup for them.  Wisconsin doesn't turn it over, ranking 3rd in the country in turnover percentage (12.8%) on offense.  This line is way too short today.  Bet Wisconsin Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Troy +13

I think this is going to be an ugly, defensive battle and in those types of games I like taking the underdog catching double-digits.  Troy ranks 309th in adjusted tempo while Nebraska ranks 218th.  Both teams rely on defense, and running down the shot clock on offense to find the best available shot.

After a blistering start to the season as part of Nebraska's record winning streak, the Huskers have cooled off substantially here down the stretch.  They have gone just 6-6 SU & 5-7 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They lost by 20 at UCLA, needed OT to beat Iowa at home and lost by 16 to Purdue in their last three games coming in.

Troy showed what it was capable of in non-conference play upsetting Kent State, Furman and San Diego State on the road while also taking USC to OT.  After a lull in play toward the end of the Sun Belt season, the Trojans have saved their best basketball for last.

They have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall beating Louisiana by 19, ULM by 15, Southern Miss by 8 and Georgia Southern by 16.  The Trojans have one of the most respected couches in the country in Scott Cross to come up with the proper game plan to compete with Nebraska.

The Trojans have some nice balance with F Victor Valdes (14.8 PPG, 4.6 APG, 4.0 RPG), F Thomas Dowd (14.8 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 1.3 BPG), G Cooper Campbell (12.7 PPG, 4.2 APG, 39.1% 3-pointers) and G Cobi Campbell (9.0 PPG, 40.4% 3-pointers).  All the pressure in on the Huskers as they are 0-8 all-time in the NCAA Tournament and looking for their first win in program history.  Bet Troy Thursday.

20* Troy/Nebraska South Region No-Brainer on UNDER 138

Two dead nuts UNDER teams square off when Troy meets Nebraska in the Round of 64.  This will be an ugly, low-scoring game and this total of 138 has been set too high as a result.

Troy ranks 309th in adjusted tempo.  The Trojans have gone 9-2 UNDER in their last 11 games overall with 138 or fewer combined points in eight of those 11 games.  And that's even with playing several up-tempo teams in the Sun Belt.

Nebraska ranks 218th in adjusted tempo and 7th in adjusted defense.  The Huskers have gone 20-6 UNDER in their last 26 games overall.  They went for 132 combined points with Purdue, 124 with UCLA and 140 at the end of regulation with Iowa in their last three games coming in.

With neither team looking to push the tempo, this game will be one of the best defensive battles of the opening round.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* SMU/Miami Ohio First 4 No-Brainer on Miami Ohio +7

Miami Ohio has the luxury of playing this First 4 game less than an hour from their campus in Oxford.  This First 4 game will be played in Dayton, and there's no question it will feel like a home game for the Redhawks.

Look for fans to come out strong in support of this team that went 31-0 in the regular season.  And look for the Redhawks to be playing with a chip on their shoulder after the committee basically gave them the shaft by making them play in the First 4 instead of putting them in the Round of 64.

SMU is lucky to have made the NCAA Tournament as it was the last team in.  The Mustangs did not earn it at all going 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games including blowout road losses to Stanford by 20 and FSU by 13.  They went 3-8 SU in true road games this season with their three wins coming against non-tournament teams in Miss State, Wake Forest and Pitt.  This will essentially be a true road game for them.

A big reason the Mustangs got into the NCAA Tournament is because they were without 3rd-leading scorer BJ Edwards (12.7 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 4.9 AGP), who is also their best defender.  They announced he would return for the NCAA Tournament likely to help their chances.  But I have to think since he sat out the ACC Tournament over the weekend that he's nowhere near 100%.  They were fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives and he sat.

I think the Redhawks were carrying a huge burden for much of the season trying to keep their perfect record alive.  I think they had a letdown in the MAC Tournament against UMass, which was what I called for when I backed UMass.  But now I think they can reset, refocus and come back playing free again in the First 4.  And they will give SMU a run for its money in what will basically be a home game for them Wednesday night.  Bet Miami Ohio Wednesday.

15* NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Sam Houston State +12

NIT underdogs went 7-1 ATS in Round 1.  They were almost all road teams as well.  I think this is the best underdog on the board tonight in NIT action.  Sam Houston State wants to be here much more than New Mexico does, and motivation is everything in the NIT.

New Mexico was on the bubble to make the NCAA Tournament and one of the first teams left out.  A devastating 64-62 loss to San Diego State in the MWC semifinals likely kept them out.  I don't think they will be recovered in time to fact Sam Houston State tonight.

Sam Houston State lost to eventual C-USA champion Kennesaw State 79-73.  The Bearkats beat New Mexico State 69-61 the round prior, which is the same New Mexico State team that upset New Mexico 76-68 on the road in non-conference.  The Mountain West was way down this season, and I think the Lobos are getting too much respect here.

Sam Houston State had some very impressive results in non-conference play.  The Bearkats covered as 31.5-point dogs in a 21-point loss at Texas Tech, they covered in a 6-point loss at Utah as 12.5-point dogs, the beat Wyoming by 8 at home, they only lost by 10 at Oklahoma State as 13.5-point dogs, they upset Oregon State by 10 as 3.5-point road dogs.  They can hang on the road with New Mexico, too.  Bet Sam Houston State Wednesday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Blazers/Pacers OVER 232

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team going 10-3 OVER in their last 13 games overall.  They are absolutely tanking and just quit playing defense.  They have allowed at least 123 points in 11 of thier last 13 games, including 130 or more points in eight of those.  They have ogne for at least 231 combined points in 11 of those 13 games with their opponents.

The Blazers rank 7th in pace this season and 4th in pace over their last 15 games.  A return to health for many of their key players have made them a deeper team that is comfortable with playing faster of late, which is what they want to do.

That was on display in their 131-111 home win over Indiana on March 8th just 10 days ago.  Neither team lit it up from 3 with the Pacers shooting 33.3% and the Blazers 36.6%.  The Pacers also shot just 43.2% from the field, and that game still saw 242 combined points.  It should be another shootout in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on South Alabama +17.5

This is a complete fade of Auburn which doesn't want to be here.  The Tigers were one of the last teams left out of the NCAA Tournament.  They played a tough schedule, but their 17-16 record that included a 3-9 finish had them being left out.

There's no chance Auburn is going to be motivated to beat South Alabama in the NIT.  The Tigers have players more concerned about preparing for the NBA draft.  Meanwhile, South Alabama wants to be here and certainly relishes the opportunity to beat a Power 4 team from the SEC and an in-state opponent to boot.

South Alabama went 21-11 this season with 10 of those 11 losses coming by 13 points or fewer.  The Jaguars play a grinding style ranking 321st in adjusted tempo which allows them to be competitive against almost anyone.  It also opens up the door to playing to their level of competition both good and bad.  Bet South Alabama Tuesday.

15* NC State/Texas First 4 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 158

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in the First 4 of the NCAA Tournament on Tuesday.  NC State ranks 86th in adjusted tempo, 57th in average length of offensive possession, 20th in adjusted offense and 86th in adjusted defense.

The Wolfpack also rank 35th in effective FG percentage on offense and 269th in effective FG percentage on defense.  They rank 10th in 3-point percentage (38.8%) on offense and 287th defending the 3 (35.6%).

Texas has a similar profile even though they don't play as fast as NC State.  The Longhorns rank 13th in adjusted offense and 112th in adjusted defense.  They rank 299th defending the 3 (36%) and shoot it at a solid 34.9% clip themselves.

This is a rematch from a 102-97 win by Texas over NC State on a neutral on November 26th in a game that saw 199 combined points.  We have 41 points to spare here in the rematch with this 158-point total.

NC State is 12-3 OVER in its last 15 games overall including 5-0 OVER In its last five games.  Texas is 19-9 OVER in its last 28 games overall.  This total should be set in the 160's tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cavs/Bucks OVER 228.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are a dead nuts OVER team right now playing without C Jarrett Allen.  They have had to go more small ball, which has produced a 3-0 OVER run combining for 250 points with Orlando, 243 with Dallas and 250 with Dallas.  This total of 228.5 is very low for a game involving the Cavs right now.

The Bucks have gone 3-2 OVER in their last five games overall with 257 combined points with Indiana and 243 with Phoenix.  Kevin Porter Jr. (17.2 PPG, 7.3 APG) is available tonight for the Bucks to give their offense a boost.  He has only played in two of their last seven games.

Both teams had yesterday off so they are rested and ready to run.  The Bucks beat the Cavs 118-116 for 234 combined points in their last meeting on February 25th.  The 4th quarter only saw 47 combined points as well.  Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley both didn't play for the Cavs, and Giannis was out for the Bucks in that game.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NIT Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Davidson/Oklahoma State OVER 154.5

Oklahoma State is a dead nuts OVER team. The Cowboys rank 9th in adjusted tempo, 45th in adjusted offense and 138th in adjusted defense.  They have been even more of an OVER team since losing senior F Parsa Fallah to a season-ending injury late in the year.

The Cowboys have gone more small ball and have no resistance at the rim defensively without Fallah.  The Cowboys are 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall with 183 combined points with TCU, 175 with Colorado, 157 with Houston, 215 with UCF, 159 with Cincinnati and 175 with West Virginia.

Davidson prefers to play much slower, but the Wildcats won't be able to on the road tonight with the Cowboys controlling the tempo playing at home.  And these NIT games are always more high-scoring the last few seasons as teams play very little defense in this lesser tournament.  

Davidson also shoots it well at 35.3% from 3, and Oklahoma State ranks 272nd defending the 3 at 35.4%.  The Wildcats will have enough success offensively to keep up with Oklahoma State in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Wizards OVER 232.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 6th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  The Wizards are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall with 234 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.  This total of 232.5 is very short for a game involving the Wizards right now.

The Detroit Pistons are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall with 227 or more combined points in all five games.  They went for 238 with Brooklyn, 240 with Philadelphia and 236 with Memphis.  They will hang a big number on the Wizards today to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.  They will also be without Isaiah Stewart tonight so they will have to play more small ball, which favors the OVER.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 243, 254 and 254 combined points at the end of regulation in those three meetings.  These teams always play in shootouts when they get together, and it will be no different tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5

The spot really favors the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  They had yesterday off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  The are as healthy as they have been in a long time with the only key player they are missing being Jalen Williams, who they have been just fine without.  They have won eight consecutive games coming into this one with six of those against playoff contenders.

This is a terrible spot for the Magic, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 124-112 road loss at Atlanta last night.  They will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days, and they'll have nothing left in the tank for the Thunder tonight.  They are also down two starters in Franz Wagner (21.3 PPG) and Anthony Black (15.3 PPG), and they could elect to rest more guys tonight.  

Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Orlando with four wins by 12 points or more.  That includes a 128-92 home win in their first meeting this season.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

15* NIT Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on UNC-Wilmington +5.5

Yale just suffered a heartbreaking 88-84 (OT) loss to Penn as 9.5-point favorites in the Ivy League Championship Game on Sunday.  They didn't foul up 3 in the final seconds or regulation.  They allowed 44 points to TJ Power of Penn.

I have to think it's the type of loss that will beat Yale twice.  They wanted to be in the NCAA Tournament and are very disappointed to be playing in the NIT.  They are also a tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days off an OT game, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank for UNC-Wilmington.

UNC-Wilmington went 26-6 this season and won the CAA regular season title.  The Seahawks suffered five of those six losses by single-digits, but they were upset 85-70 to Campbell in their CAA Tournament opener on March 8th.  They shot 11.1% from 3-point range when they shoot 35.5% on the season and were just victims of a bad time for a poor shooting game.

So the Seahawks have now had eight days off since that defeat to rest and prepare for the NIT.  I think they will be excited and more prepared to play this game than Yale will be.  Bet UNC-Wilmington Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Mavs/Pelicans OVER 240.5

The Dallas Mavericks are such an OVER team right now because their big men are hurt and they have to play small ball.  They rank 5th in pace this season and are playing a lot faster.  They have Cooper Flagg back healthy and they do have some nice pieces on offense and some good shooters.  

The Mavericks just aren't capable of playing good defense right now, allowing 120 or more points in 13 of their last 18 games overall.  They are coming off 250 and 243 combined points in their two meetings with the Cavaliers coming into this one.

The Pelicans rank 11th in pace and 26th in defensive rating.  But they are electric on offense when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They have scored at least 113 points in 13 of their last 16 games overall.  They will hang a big number on the Mavericks tonight to lead the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Nets UNDER 221.5

The Brooklyn Nets are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 27th in pace and 29th in offensive rating.  They are even worse offensively right now with all of the guys they are sitting.

The Nets are without five of their top nine scorers in Porter Jr. (24.2 PPG), Clowney (12.6 PPG), Demin (10.3 PPG), Sharpe (8.7 PPG) and Mann (7.5 PPG).  They are coming off 201 combined points with the 76ers and 205 with the Hawks.

The Blazers are without second-leading scorer Shaedon SHarpe (21.4 PPG).  They have gone 3-2 UNDER in their last five games combining for 212 points with the 76ers, 204 with the Hornets and 205 with the Rockets.  The only two games that went over came against the Pacers and Jazz, which are the definition of over teams playing fast and playing no defense.  That's not the Nets.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Hawks -3

The Atlanta Hawks have gone 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with all nine wins coming by 9 points or more.  They are showing what they are capable of when they are as healthy as they are, and the trade for CJ McCollum has made a huge difference for them.

The Hawks sit in 9th place in the East just 2 games behind the Raptors for 6th place.  But what makes them really motivated is being just 2.5 games back of the Orlando Magic for the Southeast Division title.  They will be max motivated tonight.

The Hawks have also taken advantage of being rested and will be playing just their 6th game in 15 days tonight.  The Magic will be playing their 4th game in 6 days.  That rest advantage is also a big reason I'm on the Hawks tonight.

Another is the Magic being without both Franz Wagner (21.3 PPG) and Anthony Black (15.3 PPG), which are two of their top four scorers.  I don't think they have the horses to compete with this surging Hawks team on the road tonight.

The Hawks actually own the Magic going 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS in the last nine meetings.  They won 127-112 at home and 111-107 in Orlando in their two meetings thus far this season.  Bet the Hawks Monday.

15* Warriors/Knicks NBC ANNIHILATOR on New York -13.5

The New York Knicks are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall with their three losses coming on the road to the Lakers and Clippers, and at home to the Thunder by 3.  They have crushed everyone else winning by 29 at Milwaukee, by 25 at home over San Antonio, by 16 at Toronto, by 39 at Denver, by 17 at Utah and by 9 at Indiana.  Now they will make easy work of the Warriors today.

Golden State has elected to rest 7 of their top 8 scorers with a much more winnable game on deck against the Wizards tomorrow.  They are basically punting this game.  They will be without Curry, Butler, Porzingis, Melton, Moody, Green and Horford today.

It's not like the Warriors have been playing well even when they've had some of these guys available.  The Warriors are 5-12 SU & 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games overall with two of those wins coming against Memphis.  They also lost outright to the tanking Jazz and Bulls in two of their last three games coming in.  They stand no chance of keeping this game competitive today.  Bet the Knicks Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Cavs OVER 235.5

This will be a rematch from a 135-108 win by the Cavaliers over the Mavericks on Friday for 243 combined points.  The blowout let both teams rest their starters in a low scoring 4th quarter.  Both should come back fresh for this rematch Sunday.

The Mavericks are such an OVER team right now because their big men are hurt and they have to play small ball.  They rank 5th in pace this season and are playing a lot faster.  They have Cooper Flagg back healthy and they do have some nice pieces on offense and some good shooters.  They just aren't capable of playing good defense right now, allowing 120 or more points in 12 of their last 17 games overall.

The Cavaliers rank 5th in offensive rating this season and have built a chemistry with James Harden.  They lost 128-122 in Orlando for 250 combined points prior to their 138-105 win over the Mavericks last time out for 243 combined points.  They will hang a big number on the Mavs again, and Dallas should shoot better than the 27.3% from 3 they did in the first meeting as we get another OVER.  

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Cleveland and Dallas with 243, 245, 256 and 240 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* SEC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Vanderbilt ML -130

Vanderbilt had the tougher path to the SEC Tournament Championship Game.  But they will be the fresher team because they made such easy work of their two opponents.  After beating Tennessee 75-68 on Friday, the Commodores came back with a 91-74 win over Florida on Saturday.

They also played in the early game Saturday so they have that extra 3 hours of rest over Arkansas.  And because they blew out Florida, only two players played more than 30 minutes for them yesterday.  They were able to rest their starters in the final minutes.

Meanwhile, Arkansas was life and death with Oklahoma on Friday in a 82-79 win.  They were life and death with Ole Miss in a 93-90 (OT) win on Saturday.  Those are two of the worst teams in the SEC that won't be going to the NCAA Tournament to boot.

Darius Acuff played all 40 minutes against Oklahoma and then another 40 minutes against Ole Miss yesterday.  Four starters played at least 40 minutes in that OT game against Ole Miss.  The Razorbacks only have a 7-man rotation so they aren't very equipped to handle this 3rd game in 3 days.  The Commodores are the better, more rested team and should be bigger favorites today as a result.  Bet Vanderbilt on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Virginia/Duke ACC No-Brainer on Virginia +8.5

Duke is without two starters in Caleb Foster (8.5 PPG) and Patrick Ngonba Jr. (10.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.1 BPG) for the ACC Tournament.  The loss of Ngonba is huge as he controls everything in the paint for Duke.  Without him, they won't be nearly as dominant defensively.

That was on display in their first game as Duke was life and death in a 80-79 win over Florida State as 17.5-point favorites.  The Blue Devils were fortunate to cover as 10.5-point favorites in a 73-61 win over Clemson where they got a tip-in to cover in the closing seconds.  That was a tired Clemson team playing its 3rd game in 3 days and one missing a starting big man due to injury.

This is a big step up in class here against a healthy, rested Virginia team.  The Cavaliers are on equal rest to Duke after getting a double-bye into the quarterfinals.  The difference is Virginia has made easy work of its first two opponents and should be the fresher, deeper team as a result.  Especially with Duke down two starters.

Virginia beat NC State 81-74 in the opener before crushing Miami 84-62 yesterday.  The blowout nature of that win over Miami allowed the Cavaliers to rest their starters late and stay fresh for this game against Duke.  This line should be much closer to PK given the injuries to Duke.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Celtics OVER 230

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 5th in pace and 29th in defensive rating this season.  They have become even more of an OVER team with Trae Young now healthy and playing for them.

The Wizards are 6-1 OVER in their last six games overall.  They have gone for 234 or more combined points in all seven games, so this total of 230 is very short for a game involving the Wizards right now.  That includes the 150-129 loss to the Heat in which they allowed 83 points to Bam Adebayo as they have simply quit playing defense knowing they are tanking.

The Celtics are coming off consecutive losses to the Spurs and Thunder, two elite defensive teams.  I think they take out their frustration on the Wizards today and hang a big number on them to lead the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.

The Celtics rank 2nd in offensive rating this season.  Jayson Tatum has returned and the chemistry should continue to improve with each passing game.  Two key shooters in White and Scheierman have been upgraded to probable today as the Celtics are very healthy coming into this one.  The Wizards are as healthy as they have been in a long time as well with some great talent at the guard positions, plus Sarr as a versatile big man.

The OVER is 2-0 in two meetings between the Celtics and Wizards this season with 247 and 243 combined points.  It should be more of the same in another shootout tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* San Diego State/Utah State MWC ANNIHILATOR on Utah State ML -120

Utah State should be the much fresher team today.  The Aggies made easy work of their first two opponents in the MWC Tournament crushing UNLV 80-60 on Thursday before taking down Nevada 79-66 on Friday.  Utah State also got to play the early game last night.

Meanwhile, San Diego State was playing up until midnight local time in Las Vegas last night and in a 64-62 war with New Mexico.  That followed up another 71-62 dog fight win over Colorado State.  Now the Aztecs must turn around and play at 3:00 local time this afternoon, and I just question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Aggies today.

Given the rest advantage plus the fact that Utah State is simply the better power-rated team, the Aggies should be more than -120 favorites on the Money Line today.  Bet Utah State on the Money Line Saturday.

20* St. Joe's/VCU Atlantic 10 No-Brainer on St. Joe's +6.5

St. Joe's is the most underrated team in the Atlantic 10.  The Hawks have gone 14-3 SU & 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games overall with their three losses all coming by single-digits.  They have won and covered 7 in a row heading into the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament.

Their big finish allowed the Hawks to earn a double-bye into the quarterfinals.  They made easy work of Davidson in a 70-58 win as they led by 20 late before calling off the dogs and saving their energy for this game against VCU.

Meanwhile, VCU was in a dog fight with a 71-66 win over Duquesne yesterday, failing to cover as 6.5-point closing favorites.  They can't be identical 6.5-point favorites against St. Joe's, a team that is much better than Duquesne.  They have been fortunate in close games with their last three games all resulting in wins by 6 points or fewer.  This one will go down to the wire as well.

St. Joe's only lost 79-72 on the road at VCU in their lone meeting this season, and that was way back on January 19th.  The Hawks have improved by leaps and bounds since, and they're ready to give VCU a run for its money in the rematch today.  Bet St. Joe's Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on St. Joe's/VCU UNDER 146

There have been a ton of low-scoring games in the Atlantic 10 Tournament at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh.  That includes the two games from these two teams yesterday as both put together dominant defensive efforts.

VCU is coming off a 71-66 win over Duquesne for 137 combined points staying well under the 153.5-point total.  St. Joe's is coming off a 70-58 win over Davidson and 128 combined points, staying well under the 133.5-point total.

St. Joe's is 7-4 UNDER in its last 11 games overall with 137 or fewer combined points in 8 of those 11 games.  VCU is 3-0 UNDER in its last three games overall with 137 or fewer combined points in all three contests.  St. Joe's ranks 57th in adjusted defense while VCU ranks 63rd as these are two elite defensive teams.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Fullerton/Hawaii Big West Late-Night BAILOUT on Fullerton +7.5

CS-Fullerton is the most underrated team in the Big West Tournament.  The Titans are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games.  They are also 5-0 ATS in their last five games with their lone loss coming by 2 to Hawaii as 3.5-point dogs.  Now the Titans get their shot at revenge here two weeks later in the Big West Tournament.

This is a Hawaii team that has been grossly overvalued here down the stretch.  The Rainbow Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall with only two wins by more than 7 points.  Those two wins came against UC-Riverside and CS-Bakersfield, the two worst teams in the Big West.  Bet CS-Fullerton Friday.

15* Timberwolves/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota -5.5

I love the spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They will be highly motivated for a victory coming off three consecutive losses to the Magic, Lakers and Clippers.  They will take out their frustration on the short-handed Golden State Warriors tonight.

The Warriors just can't function without Curry (27.2 PPG) and Butler (20.0 PPG).  They have gone 5-11 SU & 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall with two of those wins coming against Memphis.  They lost their last two games to the Jazz and Bulls, two tanking teams.  They are also without Moody (11.9 PPG), and both Melton (13.0 PPG) and Post (7.6 PPG) are questionable.  I give them little chance of keeping this game competitive against a feisty Minnesota team tonight.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

15* Clemson/Duke ACC ANNIHILATOR on Clemson +11.5

Duke is without two starters in Caleb Foster (8.5 PPG) and Patrick Ngonba Jr. (10.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.1 BPG) for the ACC Tournament.  The loss of Ngonba is huge as he controls everything in the paint for Duke.  Without him, they won't be nearly as dominant defensively.

That was on display yesterday as Duke was life and death in a 80-79 win over Florida State as 17.5-point favorites.  I backed FSU in that game, and I'm fading Duke again today as this line is also ridiculous laying 11.5 points to Clemson.

The Tigers are coming off consecutive wins over Wake Forest and UNC and ready to give Duke a run for its money.  They lost 67-54 as 12.5-point road dogs at Duke in their lone meeting this season.  Both Foster and Ngongba played in that game.  The Blue Devils cannot be 11.5-point favorites on a neutral in the rematch, which is one point less than they were favored by at home.  Bet Clemson Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans +7.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have no incentive to tank because they don't have their first-round pick this year.  Their three losses all came on the road to the Clippers, Lakers and Suns during this 10-game stretch.  Six of their 7 wins have come by double-digits.

The Pelicans are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They are as healthy as they have been all season with each of their top eight scorers all available tonight.  That includes Dejounte Murray, who is gaining confidence with each game playing in 7 games this season for the Pelicans after they traded for him in the offseason.

The Houston Rockets have been grossly overvalued for months.  The Rockets are 15-30 ATS in their last 45 games overall.  They have just 3 wins in their last 19 games by more than 7 points.  They play so slow, struggle on offense and play good defense, which is a recipe for playing to their level of competition.

The Rockets are the much more tired team playing their 6th game in 9 days tonight.  That fatigue showed in a 129-93 road loss at Denver last time out.  And now Alperen Sengun (20.2 PPG, 9.0 RPG) is questionable to even play tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

25* Atlantic 10 Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Joe's -1

St. Joe's is the most underrated team in the Atlantic 10.  The Hawks have gone 13-3 SU & 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall with their three losses all coming by single-digits.  They have won and covered 6 in a row coming into the Atlantic 10 Tournament.

The Hawks earned a bye into the quarterfinals thanks to their big finish.  Now that bye will pay off in a big way with the rest advantage over Davidson tonight.  The Wildcats had to play Thursday and needed OT to beat the worst team in the Atlantic 10 in Loyola-Chicago by a final of 64-59.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank today.

St. Joe's won 70-67 as 1.5-point dogs at Davidson on March 4th just over a week ago.  They have to be more than 1-point favorites on a neutral now in the rematch given their rest advantage.  Bet St. Joe's Friday.

15* Kent State/Akron MAC ANNIHILATOR on Akron -6

Akron is the best team in the MAC even though Miami Ohio had a 31-0 regular season.  I like the fact that Akron was in a rare dog fight yesterday in a 73-70 win over Buffalo.  It was their 8th straight victory overall with 6 of those coming by 13 points or more.

One of those came 92-70 at Kent State as 3.5-point road favorites on February 27th.  Akron also beat Kent State 69-52 at home.  This is clearly a terrible matchup for the Golden Flashes, who just don't have the horses to hang with this elite Akron team that has no weaknesses.  Bet Akron Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Kent State/Akron UNDER 164.5

Akron beat Kent State 69-52 at home and 92-70 on the road.  That first meeting saw just 121 combined points.  The 2nd meeting saw 162 combined points, but that was with electric shooting from Akron.  The Zips shot 14-of-28 (50%) from 3-point range while the Golden Flashes shot 13-of-32 (40.6%) themselves.  I doubt either team shoots as well from 3 again.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  With this being their 3rd meeting of the season, these teams know each other inside and out.  And with a trip to the championship game on the line, this game will be played close to the vest.  I also expect it to be a slower-paced game than expected.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Iowa State/Arizona Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +4.5

The Iowa State Cyclones have the best following at the Big 12 Tournament every year.  That's why they call it Hilton South in Kansas City.  That was on display as the Cyclones crushed Arizona State 91-42 in their opener.  They followed it up with another dominant 75-53 win over Texas Tech yesterday.

The blowout nature of those two wins allowed the Cyclones to rest their starters in the 2H and conserve them for the rest of this tournament.  That's why I'm not even giving Arizona much of a rest advantage at all despite the fact that they are playing just their 2nd game in 2 days.

Now the Cyclones want revenge from a 73-57 road loss at Arizona on March 2nd earlier this month.  They shot 29.2% from the field and 23.3% from 3-point range and are clearly due some positive shooting regression in the rematch today.

This will basically be a home game for Iowa State, and it's not being factored into this line enough, which is the case almost every year.  Arizona is going to be the No. 1 seed regardless of what happens in the Big 12 Tournament.  The Wildcats have much less to play for than the Cyclones and won't be all that motivated to beat them again.  Bet Iowa State Friday.

15* Ole Miss/Alabama SEC ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -10.5

Alabama earned a double-bye into the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament.  That gives the Crimson Tide a big rest advantage over Ole Miss today that should lead to a blowout victory.  The Crimson Tide have been rolling going 9-1 SU in their last 10 games overall and are as healthy as they have been all season coming into the SEC Tournament.

Ole Miss pulled off consecutive upsets over Texas 76-66 and Georgia 76-72 the last two days to get here.  Now the Rebels will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days and won't have much left in the tank for Alabama.  You know the Crimson Tide will test those tired legs playing at the 4th-fastest tempo in the country.

Alabama crushed Ole Miss 93-74 on the road as 6.5-point favorites in their lone meeting this season.  This despite shooting just 39.4% from the field as a team, yet they still won by 19.  It will be another blowout in the rematch today due to the rest advantage.  Bet Alabama Friday.

15* Purdue/Nebraska Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska +4

Nebraska earned a bye into the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament.  That will give the Huskers the rest advantage over Purdue today.  They want revenge from a 80-77 (OT) home loss to Purdue in their lone meeting this season.  They were 2.5-point favorites in that game, and now are 4-point dogs in the rematch, so there's some value here.

Purdue took advantage of a tired Northwestern team that was playing its 3rd game in 3 days yesterday.  The Boilermakers prevailed 81-68. But they failed to cover as 13.5-point favorites, and are now 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  This team has consistently been overvalued and continues to be today.  Bet Nebraska Friday.

15* Duquesne/VCU Atlantic 10 ANNIHILATOR on VCU -8.5

VCU is 13-1 in its last 14 games overall with its only loss coming on the road to St. Louis.  The Rams earned a bye into the quarterfinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament, giving them a big rest advantage over Duquesne that isn't being factored into this line enough.

Duquesne had to play yesterday in a 67-61 win over Rhode Island.  The Duke really only go 7 deep, and 3 starters played at least 36 minutes for them yesterday.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank for VCU, which plays fast and plays pressure defense for 40 minutes.

VCU won 93-80 at Duquesne as 5.5-point road favorites in their lone meeting this season.  Duquesne even shot 52.8% from the field and still lost by 13.  It will be more of the same in the rematch today.  Bet VCU Friday.

20* UMass/Toledo MAC No-Brainer on UMass +3.5

UMass ranks 300th in KenPom's luck metric.  The Minutemen are 17-15 this season with 13 of those losses coming by single-digits.  They have been a tough luck loser all season.  They finally had some positive luck regression yesterday handing Miami Ohio its first loss of the season to show their potential.  They had taken Miami Ohio to the wire in both regular season meetings as well.

Toledo was in a 77-76 battle with Bowling Green yesterday.  The Rockets really only go 7 deep and won't be able to handle these back-to-back situations as well as a deeper UMass team.  It's also worth noting the Minutemen had 8 days off prior to the MAC Tournament.

UMass beat Toledo 84-82 as 2.5-point home favorites in their lone meeting this season.  Toledo shot 54.9% from the field, 42.9% from 3 and 80% from the FT line and still lost that game.  That bodes well for the Minutemen in the rematch.  Bet UMass Friday.