15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1 

We are certainly getting a nice value with the Chicago Bulls at home tonight as only 1-point favorites over the Detroit Pistons.  They just have to win the game essentially to cover, and this team has been doing a lot of winning and covering of late. 

Indeed, the Bulls are 12-7 SU in their last 19 games and 15-5 ATS in their last 10 games.  They have consistently been undervalued over the past month and that hasn’t changed one bit here tonight.  I love the passion this team has played with ever since Nikola Mirotic returned to the lineup. 

The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  None of those four meetings were even close as the home team won by 11 points or more in all four meetings and by an average of 17 points per game. 

Detroit is 4-17 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 9-1 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams who attempt 21 or fewer free throws per game this season.  The Bulls are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  The Pistons are 20-43 ATS in their last 63 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Bulls Saturday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +9.5 

Both the Wizards and Nets played last night, so there will be no advantage there.  The Wizards beat the Magic 125-119, while the Nets beat the Hawks 110-105.  But the difference here is that the Nets have the better bench and will be the fresher team because nobody played big minutes last night. 

Only one player played more than 29 minutes for the Nets, which was the 33 by Allen Crabbe.  Conversely, the Wizards had their three studs in John Wall (36), Bradley Beal (36) and Otto Porter (39) all play big minutes as they were fighting tooth and nail to beat the lowly Magic. 

The Nets have owned the Wizards this season, going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in the two previous meetings.  They won 103-98 as 3.5-point home underdogs, and 119-84 as 6-point home dogs.  Now they find themselves catching a whopping 9.5 points in the third meeting, which is simply too much. 

The Nets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Brooklyn is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Nets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games.  The Wizards are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Brooklyn is 12-3 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 106-plus points per game this season.  Washington is 4-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Bet the Nets Saturday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State -2 

This is a very tough spot for Texas.  The Longhorns just found out their best player Andrew Jones has Leukemia before the TCU game on Wednesday.  They laid it all on the line for him and came away with a miraculous 99-98 victory in double-overtime. 

TCU missed a wide open layup in the second OT as time expired, making you wonder if the power’s that be made sure that Texas won that game.  Off such an emotional win, and still without their best player in Jones who averages 13.5 points, shoots 52.8% from the field and 47.5% from 3-point range, I expect a big mental letdown tonight against Oklahoma State. 

The Cowboys will be motivated for a win after opening 1-3 in Big 12 play.  Two of those losses were on the road to Oklahoma and Kansas State.  The Cowboys are 9-2 at home this season with their only two losses coming to two of the best teams in the country in West Virginia and Wichita State. 

The home team is 7-2 straight up in the last nine meetings.  Oklahoma State is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 4-1-1 ATS in the last six home meetings.  The Longhorns are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  The Cowboys are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday. 

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier -3.5 

Xavier will be playing with a chip on its shoulder today after back-to-back road losses to Providence and Villanova to fall to 15-3 on the season.  The Musketeers also want revenge from getting knocked out of the Big East Tournament by Creighton last year, 75-72. 

Xavier is 11-0 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 19.2 points per game.  That’s why I have no doubt they’ll get right back on the winning track at home here Saturday as mere 3.5-point home favorites over Creighton. 

The Bluejays have only had to play four true road games this season.  They lost at Gonzaga by 17 and Seton Hall by 6 against the two best teams they played away from home, and two teams similar to Xavier talent-wise.  They beat Northwestern and Georgetown. 

Xavier is 51-28 ATS in its last 79 January home games.  The Musketeers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing a shooting percentage of 55% or higher.  Xavier is 6-0 ATS versus teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  The Musketeers are 6-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams who average 4-plus boards more than their opponents this season.  The Bluejays are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Take Xavier Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia -4 

The Georgia Bulldogs have been grossly undervalued this season, especially when playing at home.  After blowing a halftime lead and losing at Missouri last time out, I expect the Bulldogs to be playing motivated here at home today. 

And Georgia will be looking to stay unbeaten at home this season.  The Bulldogs are 8-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this year, outscoring opponents by an averages of 13.9 points per game.  They have blowout wins over Georgia Tech (80-59), Temple (84-66), Ole Miss (71-60) and Alabama (65-46) in their last four home games, respectively. 

South Carolina is clearly in a rebuilding year under Frank Martin after last year’s surprise Final Four run.  The Gamecocks are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The competition has gotten stiffer, and they have lost four of their last six by 16 to Clemson, by 5 to Ole Miss, by 11 to Missouri and by 14 to Alabama. 

These teams have five common opponents already this season.  Georgia is 3-2 against them and winning by 5.2 points per game, while South Carolina is 1-4 against them and losing by 8.0 points per game.  The Bulldogs are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss.  The Gamecocks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 SEC games.  South Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a a winning record.  The Gamecocks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  Take Georgia Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Georgetown +12.5 

The Georgetown Hoyas just aren’t getting any respect from oddsmakers in their first season under Patrick Ewing.  But boy is he doing a fine job with them this season.  They are off to a 12-4 start with only one of their four losses coming by double-digits. 

Seton Hall is a very good team at 14-3 this season, but the Pirates have been fortunate in close games this year.  Each of their last four wins have come by 12 points or less against Manhattan, Creighton, St. John’s and Butler despite playing three of those four at home. 

Georgetown has gone 3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in all road games this season.  It has road wins over Richmond, DePaul and St. John’s with upsets as underdogs in the latter two.  Its only road loss came by a final of 65-74 at Marquette, the same Marquette team that Seton Hall just lost 64-84 to last time out. 

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years.  Each of the last five meetings have been decided by 8 points or less.  The Hoyas are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, and 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Georgetown Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -12 

The Kansas State Wildcats just recently lost their floor general in PG Kamau Stokes to an injury.  Stokes averages 13.4 points and 4.6 assists per game.  They were able to overcome his loss to beat Oklahoma State 86-82 at home in their first game without him.  Beating Kansas on the road will be a monumental challenge without him. 

I think this is one of the rare times you will get Kansas at a cheap price.  That’s because the Jayhawks have actually lost at home twice already this season, which is unheard of in the Bill Self era.  But the Jayhawks are playing well, going 6-1 in their last seven games and 4-2 ATS in their last six games. 

Kansas is 19-1 SU & 12-8 ATS in its last 20 home meetings with Kansas State.  It still has arguably the best home-court advantage in the country.  And I don’t expect the Wildcats to handle the environment very well, especially now that they are without their starting point guard. 

Kansas State is 0-7 ATS versus teams who attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game over the last three seasons.  The Wildcats are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Kansas State is 11-29-2 ATS in the last 42 meetings, including 3-13-1 ATS in its last 17 trips to Kansas.  Roll with Kansas Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks +9 

The Minnesota Timberwolves have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  This run has them overvalued now.  And the Timberwolves are clearly primed for a letdown after back-to-back huge home wins over the Cavaliers and Thunder. 

Plays against favorites (Minnesota) after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team winning 60% to 75% or more of their games on the season are 38-12 (76%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Conversely, the Knicks are undervalued after going just 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  But six of those eight losses came by 9 points or fewer, so they have been competitive.  And seven of those 10 games were on the road.  It has been a tough stretch, but the Knicks should be rejuvenated now as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days. 

The Knicks have owned the Timberwolves over the past two seasons, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS despite being the underdog in three of those four meetings.  They just have the winning formula against the Timberwolves, and I think they will be the more motivated team in this matchup. 

The Knicks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on one day of rest.  The Timberwolves are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The underdog is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  New York is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six trips to Minnesota.  Take the Knicks Friday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana Pacers +2.5 

I’m not sure how the Cleveland Cavaliers can actually be favored tonight against the Indiana Pacers with how poorly they are playing.  After all, the Cavaliers are 6-25-1 ATS as favorites this season, so they have been money burners all year. 

And now the Cavs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after yet another ugly 99-133 loss in Toronto last night against a Raptors team that was playing without two starters in Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka.  That followed up a 99-127 loss at Minnesota the game before.  The Cavs are now just 2-6 SU in their last eight games and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 contests.  And now they’ll be without Isaiah Thomas, who is resting in this one. 

The Pacers haven’t won a game when Victor Oladipo has sat out.  But he returned from injury three games ago and the Pacers have gone 2-1 since.  They beat the Bulls 125-86 and the Bucks 109-96 while losing to the red-hot Miami Heat 106-114.  But they shot just 1-of-18 from 3-point range against the Heat, yet were still tied with a few minutes to go.  They won’t shoot that poorly again, especially not against a Cleveland defense that has allowed 129 points per game in their last three contests. 

Indiana is 9-1 ATS after having lost six or seven of its last eight games over the past two seasons.  It is winning by 7.8 points per game on average in this spot.  The Cavs are 1-9 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better this season.  Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road gams.  The Pacers have won each of their first two meetings this season with the Cavs outright as underdogs.  Indiana is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Bet the Pacers Friday. 

15* Marquette/Butler Big East No-Brainer on Butler -4.5 

Off three consecutive losses, it’s safe to say the Butler Bulldogs are going to be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight against the Marquette Golden Eagles.  I expect a big effort from them to get the win and cover here and to get back on track. 

It’s easy to see why Butler has lost three in a row.  They were underdogs on the road to both Xavier and Creighton, and they only lost by 3 at home to Seton Hall after blowing a double-digit lead.  The game before this skid, they beat Villanova 101-93 at home.  The Bulldogs are now 9-1 SU & 7-2 ATS at home this season with one of the better home-court advantages in the country. 

Butler has really had Marquette’s number in recent meetings.  The Bulldogs are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Butler is 7-1-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall.  Marquette has played a much softer schedule than Butler and will be taking a big step up in class here tonight. 

Butler is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Golden Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Butler.  Roll with Butler Friday. 

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings +1.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers are in a very difficult spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  And they are clearly in a letdown spot after beating the Warriors on the road last night.  Well, the Warriors sat both Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, so it comes with an asterisk. 

The Clippers won’t be nearly as excited to face the Kings, who will be highly motivated for a victory after dropping five of their last six games overall.  But in their last two home games they beat Denver 106-98 as 8.5-point dogs and led San Antonio nearly the entire way until the closing minutes, losing 100-107 as 5-point dogs. 

While the Kings are relatively healthy, the Clippers have all kinds of injury issues that will make this back-to-back that much more difficult.  They have been without Blake Griffin, who remains questionable with a concussion.  Austin Rivers, Danilo Gallinari and Patrick Beverly are all out.  C.J. Williams is doubtful, while Milos Teodosic is questionable. 

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Sacramento) - off a loss to a division rival, in January games are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA Clippers) - off two or more consecutive wins, playing on back-to-back days are 74-39 (65.5%) ATS over the last five years.  Bet the Kings Thursday. 

15* Cavs/Raptors TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 222 

The Toronto Raptors are going to be without two of their best offensive weapons in point guard Kyle Lowry and power forward Serge Ibaka tonight.  They are going to have to muck it up and make this an ugly game if they want any chance to beat the Cavaliers tonight, which is why I think there’s value with the UNDER. 

The Cavaliers are frustrated right now, losing five of their last seven games overall coming in.  It can mostly be attributed to poor defense, but their offense has also been struggling.  They have been held to 101 or fewer points in all five of those losses.  I look for them to put a renewed effort defensively tonight after losing 99-127 to the Timberwolves on Monday.  They have had two days off since to fix their defense. 

These teams are very familiar with one another after squaring off in the playoffs each of the past two seasons.  I think that familiarity will make points harder to come by.  In fact, 14 of the last 17 meetings in this series have seen less than 222 points, which is what this total has been set at tonight. 

Cleveland is 10-2 UNDER off a non-conference game this season.  Toronto is 11-3 UNDER vs. good 3-point shooting teams who make 36% or better this season.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Cavaliers’ last eight vs. NBA Atlantic opponents.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Raptors last six home games.  The UNDER is 21-7 in the last 28 meetings in Toronto.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio State -4.5 

Chris Holtmann has this Ohio State Buckeyes team on the rise in his first season.  He did big things at Butler and now he has carried over that success to Columbus.  The Buckeyes are 13-4 on the season, including 10-1 at home and winning by 16.8 points per game. 

Ohio State has gone 8-1 in its last nine games overall with its only loss coming to UNC on a neutral court. They beat Wisconsin by 25 on the road, Michigan by 9 at home, Iowa by 11 on the road and Michigan State by 16 at home during this stretch.  And you can bet Ohio State will be out for revenge following four straight losses to Maryland over the past two seasons. 

That’s the same Michigan State team that Maryland just lost by 30 to on the road a week ago today.  This Maryland team isn’t as good as the ones in recent years that made the NCAA Tournament.  The Terrapins are just 1-2 in true road games this season with their only win coming 92-91 against an Illinois team that remains winless in Big Ten play. 

Ohio State is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 home games off three straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers.  The Buckeyes are 11-2 ATS in home games when playing against a good team winning 60% to 80% of their games over the last three seasons.  Ohio State is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. teams who are called for 3-plus fouls per game less than their opponents over the last three years.  Roll with Ohio State Thursday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Grizzlies UNDER 213 

Just looking at the recent head-to-head history in this series it’s easy to see that there is value with the UNDER tonight.  Plus the fact that the Pelicans are going to be without their best player in Anthony Davis makes me like the UNDER even more. 

The Pelicans and Grizzlies have combined for 205 or fewer points at the end of regulation in eight straight meetings, which makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 213-point total.  They have averaged just 190.4 combined points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 23 points less than this total.  The UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Memphis. 

Memphis is 8-1 UNDER in home games versus good 3-point shooting teams making 36% or more of their attempts this season.  New Orleans is 14-4 UNDER in road games vs. division opponents over the last three seasons.  Memphis is 8-1 UNDER vs. division opponents this season.  The Grizzlies are 10-1 ATS after covering four of their last five games against the spread over the last two seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans are going to be without their best player in Anthony Davis tonight.  They haven’t been playing well of late anyways, going 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have upset home losses to Dallas and New York during this stretch, and an 18-point road loss at Minnesota. 

The Memphis Grizzlies are starting to play much better here of late.  They are 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall despite playing four of their last five games on the road, and their lone home game was a 2-point loss to Washington as 4.5-point dogs. 

The Grizzlies have owned the Pelicans, going 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New Orleans) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent off a loss by 6 points or less are 50-20 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Grizzlies Wednesday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Evansville +2.5 

The Evansville Purple Aces have one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the country.  They are 9-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.3 points per game.  They are coming off a dominant 68-44 home win over Bradley as only 1-point favorites. 

Missouri State is a quality team this season, but it should not be favored on the road here.  The Bears have lost two of their last three road games despite being favorites in each.  They lost 66-73 as 12.5-point favorites at Oral Roberts, and 68-72 as 4-point road favorites at Illinois State. 

Evansville has owned Missouri State in recent meetings, going 6-1 straight up in the last seven meetings.  The Purple Aces are 4-0 in their last four home meetings with the Bears, winning by 8, 10, 19 and 7 points, respectively. 

The Purple Aces are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Evansville is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games.  The Purple Aces are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  Evansville is 9-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Missouri State is 9-18 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Take Evansville Wednesday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -5 

The Pacers had lost five in a row before the return of Victor Oladipo.  He returned Saturday and sparked the Pacers’ 39-point win.  The Pacers then led the entire way in an impressive 109-96 home victory over the Milwaukee Bucks. 

The Heat are overvalued right now due to winning five straight games.  But now they’re in a tough spot as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 90-89 victory in Toronto against a Raptors team that was playing without Kyle Lowry last night.   

And now the Heat will likely be without one of their best players in James Johnson, who is expected to be suspended.  They were already missing Dion Waiters and Justise Winslow, and Tyler Johnson is questionable with a shoulder injuries.  That makes this back-to-back set even more difficult for them. 

Indiana is 10-0 straight up in its last 10 home meetings with Miami.  The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Indiana.  The Pacers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  Miami is 1-9 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia Tech -1 

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are way overvalued right now due to their 5-game winning streak.  They were able to survive their first few games without Bonzie Colson, and even their last game against Syracuse without Matt Farrell.  But with their two best players out, this team is going to struggle moving forward, especially tonight. 

Colson (21.4 ppg, 10.4 rpg) and Farrell (15.9 ppg, 5.1 apg) are simply irreplaceable on this team.  Colson has missed the past two games while Farrell missed one.  Both will be out tonight and really hamper Notre Dame’s chances of being successful.  In their first game without both, they managed just 51 points against Syracuse. 

Georgia Tech is really coming on strong of late.  The Yellow Jackets are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  The loss was a 59-68 setback at Notre Dame as 14-point dogs, which places the Yellow Jackets in revenge mode.  They also upset Miami 64-54 as 5-point home dogs and easily covered as 9-point favorites in a 74-60 home win over Yale. 

Georgia Tech is 14-3 ATS in January games over the last three seasons.  The Yellow Jackets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after committing 11 or fewer turnovers in three straight games.  Georgia Tech is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games.  The Yellow Jackets are 42-20-2 ATS in their last 64 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Bet Georgia Tech Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss +10.5

The Auburn Tigers are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back wins over ranked teams in Tennessee and Arkansas for the first time since 2007.  They have now jumped into the Top 25 for the first time in 15 years.  It’s safe to say they will relax after accomplishing that feat. 

Ole Miss will give them a run for their money tonight.  The Rebels have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games with their only loss coming on the road at Georgia.  They have beaten both South Carolina and Mississippi State during this run, while winning their other two games by 23 and 22 points. 

Ole Miss simply owns Auburn, going a perfect 10-0 SU & 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Rebels are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  They won both meetings last season and have four starters back from that squad under Andy Kennedy this season. 

Ole Miss is 10-1 ATS when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last two seasons.  Auburn is 0-6 ATS after scoring three of its last four against the spread over the past three seasons.  The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last six SEC games.  Roll with Ole Miss Tuesday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska -1.5 

Nebraska continues to get no love from oddsmakers this season.  The Huskers have opened 11-6 this year, and head coach Tim Miles is doing a tremendous job.  Their recent results have me believing they should be favored by more than 1.5 points at home against Wisconsin tonight. 

The Huskers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They beat Minnesota 78-68 as 9-point home dogs, only lost by 10 at Creighton as 12-point dogs, only lost by 1 at home to Kansas as 12-point dogs, beat UTSA by 10 as 9.5-point favorites, won outright at Northwestern by 15 as 7.5-point dogs, and gave Purdue a run in a 12-point road loss as 21-point dogs. 

Wisconsin has been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season.  The Badgers are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in all road games this season.  They are just 9-8 on the year as this is one of the worst Wisconsin teams in recent memory.  They have lost their last two true road games to Temple and Rutgers. 

Nebraska is 45-21 ATS in its last 66 home games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Huskers are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 home games as a favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  Nebraska is 7-0 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season.  The Huskers are 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Take Nebraska Tuesday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Raptors UNDER 207.5 

The Toronto Raptors just played a grueling 114-113 (OT) game in Brooklyn last night.  Kyle Lowry fell hard and hurt his tailbone, forcing him to leave the game.  It’s likely that he won’t be available tonight in this back-to-back set against the Heat, which would significantly hamper Toronto’s offense. 

The Heat prefer to play at a slow tempo.  They rank 27th in the NBA in pace at 96.8 possessions per game.  Miami is one of the better defensive teams in the NBA, especially when Hassan Whiteside is healthy, which he hasn’t been for much of the season until recently.  And the Heat are just 22nd in offensive efficiency. 

But the heat-to-head history here is the reason this is such a good bet.  In fact, each of the last 11 meetings between Toronto and Miami have seen 205 combined points or less.  And two of those games even went to overtime.  They have averaged just 190.3 combined points per game in those 11 meetings, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight’s posted total of 207.5.  We’ll take this 11-0 system straight to the bank tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -1.5 

I love the situation tonight for the Indiana Pacers.  They just lost to the Bucks 101-122 on the road on Wednesday, January 3rd.  Now they get their chance at revenge less than a week later, and this time around they will have their best player in Victor Oladipo. 

After losing five consecutive games and remaining winless when Oladipo sits, they got a big boost with his return on Saturday.  Oladipo went 9-of-11 shooting for 23 points and delivered nine assists with five steals in a 125-86 rout of the Chicago Bulls.   

Now the Pacers will be fresh as this is just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Bucks will be playing their 7th game in 12 days.  And the Pacers have owned the Bucks at home, going 34-12 straight up in their last 46 meetings. 

Plays on favorites (Indiana) - revenging a loss vs. opponent by 10 points or more against an opponent that’s off a road win are 106-60 (63.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pacers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Monday games.  The Bucks are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Central Division opponents.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Pacers Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 

The Portland Trail Blazers are getting healthy and will be a dangerous team moving forward.  They have had a rough season injury-wise thus far, yet they’re still 20-18 on the year.  Look for this team to make a push into the All-Star Break after going 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall. 

The Spurs have lost two of their last four to the Piston and 76ers with their two wins coming against the Knicks and Suns.  Unlike Portland, San Antonio is really banged up right now.  The Spurs are expected to be without Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, Danny Green and Rudy Gay tonight. 

The Spurs are just 9-11 SU & 7-12-1 ATS on the road this season.  Plays on home favorites (Portland) after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in Sunday games are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last five Sunday games.  Portland is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a straight up win by more than 10 points.  Take the Blazers Sunday. 

15* FSU/Miami ACC Sunday No-Brainer on Miami -2.5 

The Florida State Seminoles are in a really tough spot here.  They have opened ACC play having to play both Duke on the road and North Carolina at home.  Off a 1-point win over the Tar Heels, the Seminoles won’t have much left in the tank for the Hurricanes tonight. 

Miami comes in highly motivated off an upset road loss at Georgia Tech last time out.  The Hurricanes are still 12-2 on the season and have played nine road games and only five at home.  Miami is 5-0 at home this season, winning by an average of 26.6 points per game. 

Florida State is 2-9 ATS in road games off two consecutive conference games over the last two seasons.  Miami is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games versus teams who score 84 or more points per game.  The Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS in their last five Sunday games.  Roll with Miami Sunday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans +2 

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a brutal spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They are a tired team right now, and it has shown with back-to-back road losses at Brooklyn and at Boston. 

After facing Boston last night, it will be a long flight back to Minnesota.  And compounding matters is the fact that they have to face a rested Pelicans team that has had two days off coming in, and one that will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days. 

They will also be facing a motivated Pelicans team that has already lost twice at home to the Timberwolves this season.  So they’ll want some revenge here, and they should get it given their massive rest advantage. 

Plays on underdogs (New Orleans) - revenging a home loss vs. opponent, off an upset win as a road underdog are 98-54 (64.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Timberwolves are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Roll with the Pelicans Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Marquette +16 

This line is inflated because Villanova is off a loss, and the betting public is quick to back them off that loss.  But I think the Wildcats have a lot of issues right now, especially inside, that will have them overvalued in Big East play all season. 

Marquette is too good of a team to be catching 16 points to Villanova.  They are 11-4 this season with their four losses coming to Purdue, Wichita State, Georgia and Xavier.  Not one of those losses came by 16-plus points. 

Marquette hasn’t lost any of its last four meetings with Villanova by more than 15 points.  In fact, the Golden Eagles upset the Wildcats 74-72 at home last year.  The Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  Bet Marquette Saturday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +10 

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are in a bad spot today.  They are coming off a huge upset win at Kansas, which sets them up for a letdown spot.  And they’re being overvalued due to that Kansas win now as double-digit favorites here against Kansas State. 

Certainly the Red Raiders are improved this season, but they have mostly feasted on an easy schedule and cannot live up to the expectations they have created for themselves. 

The Wildcats are now pushovers.  They are 11-3 this season against a tougher schedule than Texas Tech has played.  They went on the road and beat Iowa State 91-75 in their conference opener before losing by 8 to a very good West Virginia team at home.  They are more than capable of hanging with the Red Raiders today.  Roll with Kansas State Saturday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse -6 

Notre Dame is without its two best players today in Bonzie Colson (21.4 ppg, 10.4 rpg) and Matt Farrell (15.9 ppg, 5.1 apg).  They won’t be nearly the team they were before without those two, and now they have to go on the road in a hostile environment against Syracuse. 

And the Orange certainly won’t be taking the Fighting Irish lightly.  They are coming off a road loss at Wake Forest and will be highly motivated for a win here at home.  They were last seen at home blowing out Virginia Tech 68-56, and they are 10-1 at home this season. 

Syracuse is 9-1 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last two seasons, winning by an average of 10.8 points per game.  Notre Dame is 5-19 ATS in its last 24 games off a win by 20 points or more against a conference opponent.  Bet Syracuse Saturday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Butler -3 

The Butler Bulldogs are certainly battle-tested coming into this game with Seton Hall tonight.  They beat Villanova 101-93 at home and lost 79-86 at Xavier in their last two games, while also winning in overtime at Georgetown to open conference play.  They’ll be ready for Seton Hall tonight. 

Conversely, Seton Hall has played four straight home games and has opened conference play with Narrow wins over Creighton (90-84) and St. John’s (75-70).  They certainly take a step up in class here and will be on the road for the first time since an ugly 65-71 loss at Rutgers as 8.5-point favorites. 

Butler has one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The Bulldogs are 9-0 SU & 7-1 ATS at home this season, winning by 22.2 points per game on average.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last three seasons.  Butler is 8-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Seton Hall.  Take Butler Saturday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -4.5 

The Miami Heat have done a great job of digging themselves out of an early hole to get to 20-17 and currently three games above .500.  They recently got James Johnson back in the lineup, and they are getting some big contributions from everywhere. 

The Heat have gone 9-4 in their last 13 games overall.  They are coming off a 111-104 win over the Pistons.  Kelly Olynyk had 25 points and 13 rebounds, Goran Tragic had 24 points and 13 assists, Josh Richardson had 25 points and 5 assists and Johnson provided 16 points in 24 minutes in his return from injury. 

I don’t like the mindset of the Knicks right now.  Kristaps Porzingis came out and said he is so tired right now, and that it’s mentally tough and he doesn’t have it in him.  That’s a bad statement and one that won’t sit well in the locker room moving forward. 

The Knicks have gone 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  New York is 3-13 SU & 5-11 ATS on the road this season.  The Knicks are 1-12 ATS in road games against teams who attempts 21 or fewer free throws per game over the last two seasons.  Miami is 25-11 ATS when revenging a loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 28-11 ATS in their last 39 Friday games.  The favorite is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  The Knicks are 4-10 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Roll with the Heat Friday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Milwaukee Bucks +1.5 

I love the situation for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  They get a chance to avenge an overtime loss in Toronto on Monday, January 1st just a few days ago.  They will be the more motivated team here on Friday, January 5th. 

The Bucks come in playing well having gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have beaten Minnesota and Indiana at home, and Oklahoma City on the road while also losing to the Raptors on the road in overtime.  This team is really coming together. 

I think the Raptors are way overvalued right now as road favorites here over the Bucks.  They have won three straight coming in, but the schedule has been much lighter with games against the Hawks, Bucks and Bulls. They lost their two previous road games to the Thunder and Mavericks prior to this winning streak. 

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Milwaukee) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, on Friday nights are 38-15 (71.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bucks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Bucks Friday. 

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -6 

The Detroit Pistons are extremely vulnerable right now due to all their injuries.  They are already without Reggie Jackson, Stanley Johnson and Jon Leuer.  Now they could be without All-Star center Andre Drummond tonight as he is questionable with a rib injury. 

The 76ers are in good shape on the injury front with their only player they’re missing being Markelle Fultz, who has been out for months.  This return to health has led to a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS run over their last five games for the 76ers. 

I’m expecting a big effort here from the 76ers.  That’s because they won’t play against until January 11th, getting five days off in between games.  They want to go into this extended break on a four-game winning streak and should have no problem accomplishing that against the depleted Pistons. 

Philadelphia is 36-17 ATS in its last 53 games following an ATS win.  The 76ers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 Friday games.  The Pistons are 19-42 ATS in their last 61 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Detroit is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The favorite is 39-18-1 ATS in the last 58 meetings.  Take the 76ers Friday. 

20* Thunder/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +2 

The Los Angeles Clippers are way under the radar right now.  They had some key injuries that led to a poor run, but now Blake Griffin and company are back healthy and the Clippers are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game. 

Indeed, the Clippers are 6-1 SU & 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They won all six games by 8 points or more as well.  They had yesterday off and will be fresh and ready to go at home tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder. 

Conversely, the Thunder just played last night against the Lakers and will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  And spending the night in Los Angeles is always a shaky proposition because it’s likely the players went out and partied last night.  And the Thunder have been money burners on the road, going 7-11 SU & 6-12 ATS this season. 

Oklahoma City is 3-15 ATS in road games after covering four or five of their last six against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Clippers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Los Angeles is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Thunder are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Clippers Thursday.

15* Cincinnati/Temple ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Temple +7.5 

The Temple Owls are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight following three consecutive losses coming in.  But the competition has been stiff with losses to Georgia, Houston and Tulane with two of those on the road.  And now they are battle-tested and ready to go against a ranked Cincinnati team tonight. 

Conversely, Cincinnati comes in overvalued off three straight blowout wins over weak competition in Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Cleveland State and Memphis.  The Bearcats have only played two true road games this year, and they lost at Xavier and won at UCLA.  This will be a tough test for them against a motivated Owls squad looking to avoid an 0-3 start in conference play. 

This has been a closely-contested series in recent meetings.  Each of the last four meetings have been decided by 7 points or less.  And Temple is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Cincinnati.  That’s significant considering the Owls returned four starters this season and are much better than they have shown up to this point. 

Cincinnati is 4-15 ATS in road games when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  The Bearcats are 0-6 ATS in road games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons.  Temple is 13-4 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game over the last three years.  The Bearcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Roll with Temple Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa +1 

After opening 0-3 in Big Ten play with losses to Penn State, Indiana and Michigan, it’s safe to say the Iowa Hawkeyes will be highly motivated for their first conference victory at home tonight.  This is a very important game for them since their next there games on the road, so they will be max motivated. 

Ohio State has not done well when stepping up in class this season, and the Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have losses to UNC, Clemson, Gonzaga and Butler with three of those losses coming by double-digits, so they have rarely been competitive against the better teams they have faced. 

The Hawkeyes are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Buckeyes.  They have won their last two home meetings with Ohio State by 13 and 9 points. 

The Buckeyes are 12-30-1 ATS in their last 43 road games.  The Hawkeyes are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Ohio State is 0-7 ATS after having won five or six of its last seven games over the last two seasons.  Iowa is 6-0 ATS in home games with a total set of 150 to 154.5 over the last two years.  The Buckeyes are 0-6 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  Take Iowa Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Suns/Nuggets OVER 217.5 

The books have set the bar too low in this game tonight between the Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets.  This game will be a shootout, especially since both teams are almost fully healthy going in. 

The recent head-to-head series is all that needs to be seen here to know there’s value with the OVER.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 235, 247, 234 and 224 points.  That’s an average of 235 combined points per game, which is roughly 18 points more than this 217.5-point total.   

Denver is 10-1 OVER in home games off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Nuggets are 15-2 OVER versus terrible defensive teams that allow 110 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Virginia Tech +4 

Buzz Williams has this Virginia Tech program on the rise.  He led them to a 22-11 record and the NCAA Tournament last season.  Now he has four starters back from that team and his best team yet in his fourth season. 

The Hokies are off to an 11-3 start this season with their three losses all coming on the road to Syracuse, Kentucky and Saint Louis.  But they are 9-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home this season, winning by an average of 28.8 points per game. 

And Virginia Tech has been able to upset Virginia at home each of the last two seasons.  The Hokies won 70-68 as 12.5-point home underdogs in 2016 and 80-78 as 5-point home dogs in 2017.  Now they are 4-point home underdogs and have their best team yet, so they should be able to pull the upset again here, especially with how well they play at home. 

Virginia is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 games off a close home win by 3 points or less.  Virginia Tech is 10-2 ATS in home games after playing a road game over the last three seasons.  The Hokies are 12-2 ATS as a home underdog or PK over the last three years.  Virginia Tech is 24-7-1 ATS in its last 32 home games overall.  The Hokies are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. ACC opponents.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Blacksburg.  Take Virginia Tech Wednesday. 

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Bonaventure -1.5 

The St. Bonaventure Bonnies are absolutely loaded this season.  They returned four starters from last year including their killer backcourt of Matt Mobley and Jaylen Adams, who combined to average 39 points per game last season. 

It’s no surprise the Bonnies are off to an 11-2 start this season with wins over the likes of Maryland and Syracuse on the road thus far.  Adams is averaging 20.1 points and Mobley 18.3 points thus far to pick up right where they left off last year. 

Dayton was clearly going to be a rebuilding team this season.  They lost head coach Archie Miller to Indiana and lost four of their top five scores from last season.  It’s no wonder they are just 6-7 this season with losses to the likes of Hofstra, Old Dominion, Pennsylvania and Duquesne already.  Their six wins have come against Wagner, Georgia State, Tennessee Tech, Akron, Ohio and Ball State. 

St. Bonaventure is 10-0 ATS in road games after a combined score of 165 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Bonnies are 9-0 ATS in road games after scoring 85 points or more over the last three years.  Dayton is 0-6 ATS versus teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  These four trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the Bonnies.  Bet St. Bonaventure Wednesday. 

15* Cavs/Celtics ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Boston -2.5 

The Boston Celtics want to make a statement tonight and let the Cleveland Cavaliers know that they are coming for them in the Eastern Conference.  Look for a big effort from the Celtics, especially given the advantageous situation for them. 

The Celtics were a tired team in December with a brutal schedule and few breaks.  But they got a big break heading into this game with two days off having last played on Sunday against Brooklyn.  They will be rested and ready to go tonight. 

Conversely, the Cavaliers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a home win over the Portland Trail Blazers last night.  It was Isaiah Thomas’ season debut, and he played well and showed what might be a sign of things to come.  But now Thomas will sit this game to rest, and the Cavaliers will be fatigued quickly. 

The Cavaliers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.  Boston is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS loss.  The Celtics are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the Celtics Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +8 

The Houston Rockets cannot be 8-point road favorites over the Orlando Magic tonight.  They just lost their best player and MVP candidate James Harden to a hamstring injury that will sideline him for a couple weeks.  They’ll still be good with Chris Paul, but they cannot be laying this kind of weight. 

Conversely, the Orlando Magic are getting healthy.  They just recently got back their top two scorers in Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon, who both average over 18 points per game.  They have been competitive in their three games since their return, beating Detroit by 13 and only losing to Miami by 6 and Brooklyn by 3. 

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-1 straight up in the last six meetings.  The Magic have won two of their last three home meetings with the Rockets outright, and their only loss came by 7 points, which is less than this 8-point spread. 

The Rockets are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Houston is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Magic are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings with the Rockets, including 6-2 ATS in their last eight home meetings.  Roll with the Magic Wednesday. 

15* Florida/Texas A&M ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Florida +2.5 

The Texas A&M Aggies are a great team to fade opening SEC play.  I did just that when they were ranked 9th and traveled to Alabama.  I took Alabama +1 and the Crimson Tide delivered with a 79-57 blowout victory.  I’ll fade the Aggies again tonight for many of the same reasons. 

Texas A&M has a ton of injuries and suspensions right now.  They are missing leading scorer DJ Hogg (14.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg) due to suspension and third-leading scorer Admon Gilder (12.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg) due to a knee injury.  Fourth-leading scorer Duane Wilson (12.1 ppg, 4.5 apg) is also doubtful with a knee injury.  It’s no wonder they were nearly upset by Northern Kentucky at home recently in a 6-point win and were blown out by Alabama. 

Florida has suffered several close losses this season that has it undervalued.  The Gators are only 9-4, but three losses came by 6 points or fewer, including a 3-point loss to Duke and a 2-point loss to Clemson.  This team has been through the gauntlet with one of the toughest schedules in the country, which will only benefit the Gators heading into conference play. 

Florida is 33-14 ATS in its last 47 games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.  The Gators are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games following three or more consecutive home games.  Texas A&M is 4-12 ATS in all home games over the last two seasons.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Florida coach Mike White is 9-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games in all games he has coached.  Take Florida Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Cavaliers OVER 211.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers have already been one of the best offensive teams in the NBA, and one of the worst defensive teams in the league up to this point.  Now Isaiah Thomas is expected to make his season debut for the Cavaliers tonight.  Thomas is a great scorer and a terrible defender, so he’ll fit right in. 

The Cavaliers rank 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging 111.1 points per 100 possessions.  But what has held them back this season is the fact that they rank 28th in defensive efficiency, giving up 108.7 points per 100 possessions. 

Portland also gets some good news tonight with the return of leading scorer Damian Lillard, who missed the past five games with a right hamstring strain.  The Blazers have put up 114 and 124 points in two of their last three games without him, but getting him back will only make them even more explosive offensively moving forward. 

The OVER is 21-10-1 in Cavaliers last 32 home games.  The OVER is 8-3 in Cavaliers last 11 games when playing on 2 days’ rest.  The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Cleveland.  They combined for 262 points in their lone meeting in Cleveland last season.  Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday. 

20* Michigan/Iowa ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Iowa +3 

The Iowa Hawkeyes have really turned it around in the month of December.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Four of their five wins have come by 23 or more points, and the lone exception was an 80-73 victory as 3.5-point favorites over Colorado on a neutral. 

Michigan is having a solid season overall at 12-3.  But the Wolverines have lost two of their four true road games to Ohio State and North Carolina.  And I think they will be in over their heads here against an Iowa team that has owned them recently. 

Indeed, the Hawkeyes are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with Michigan despite being an underdog in the last two.  They have won those five meetings by an average of 12.0 points per game to boot.  I think the one-sided nature of this series continues tonight as the improving Hawkeyes get the win and cover. 

Iowa is 8-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who shoot 45% or better and give up 42% or worse over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams allowing 64 points or fewer over the last three seasons.  Iowa is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five home games.  The Hawkeyes are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Throw in the 5-0 ATS run against Michigan, and we have a combined 27-0 system backing the Hawkeyes here tonight.  Bet Iowa Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +2 

The Magic just recently got healthy with Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon returning to the lineup.  These are their two leading scorers as Gordon averages 18.9 PPG while Fournier scores 18.3 PPG.  They have gone 1-1 since their return with an upset win over Detroit by 13 and a 6-point loss to Miami as underdogs. 

I think the Magic can take advantage of a Nets team in a terrible situation tonight.  The Nets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after a tough 105-108 loss in Boston last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank here. 

The spot is even worse for the Nets considering they are coming off a five-game road trip with a ton of travel.  I usually like fading tired teams off an extended road trip in their first game back home.  They are usually distracted, and the Nets will certainly be distracted considering last night was New Year’s Eve. 

The Nets are 6-17 ATS in home games off a division game over the last three seasons.  Brooklyn is 18-33 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last three years.  Bet the Magic Monday. 

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2 

This is the perfect spot to fade the Memphis Grizzlies.  They are coming off a 128-141 shootout loss to the Golden State Warriors on the road last night.  So they will be tired now as they are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 12 days tonight. 

The Kings come in rested with yesterday off and motivated for a victory following an upset home loss to the Suns.  It was an understandable loss as they were coming off a 109-95 upset win over the Cavs as 9.5-point dogs, so it was clearly a letdown spot.  Look for them to be refocused and ready to go tonight against the fatigued Grizzlies. 

Sacramento is 10-1 ATS off a loss to a division opponent over the last two seasons.  The Kings are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite.  Memphis is 2-11 ATS when the total is 190 to 195.5 this season.  The Grizzlies are 2-11 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season.  Sacramento is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss.  Bet the Kings Sunday. 

20* Georgia/Kentucky SEC Sunday No-Brainer on Georgia +10 

The Kentucky Wildcats are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers off their 90-61 win over rival Louisville on Friday.  Well, Louisville isn’t the same team without Rick Pitino and is clearly down this season. 

That win has the betting public quickly forgetting that the Wildcats lost 75-83 to UCLA in their previous game.  I think the Wildcats came out inspired because of that loss.  But now they won’t have much left in the tank as they will be playing their 2nd game in 3 days here. 

Georgia, on the other hand, hasn’t played since an impressive 84-66 home victory as 2-point favorites over Temple on December 22nd.  This is the best Georgia team that Mark Fox has had in some time as the Bulldogs are off to a 9-2 start and have some NBA talent.  They are more than capable of going toe-to-toe with this Kentucky outfit that clearly isn’t as good as in years’ past. 

Georgia is 10-1 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  Georgia is 9-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 80% or better over the last two seasons.  Roll with Georgia Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +7.5 

What do the Chicago Bulls have to do to get any love from the books?  They are once again catching too many points here as 7.5-point road underdogs to the Washington Wizards. 

All the Bulls have done is gone 10-2 straight up in their last 12 games and 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games.  This run has coincided with Nikola Mirotic joining the lineup over the past 12 games.  There’s no reason to stop backing them now. 

I think the Wizards are getting love from oddsmakers from their 121-103 win over the Rockets on Friday.  But that was an awful spot for the Rockets as they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and they were without Chris Paul.  They had blown a 26-point lead to the Celtics the previous night and were in a hangover spot because of it. 

The Bulls are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a win.  Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The road team is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  The underdog is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Take the Bulls Sunday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence +9 

The Providence Friars came into Big East play underrated due to their 2-9 ATS mark.  But they had a ton of injuries in non-conference play, and then almost everyone got healthy heading into their showdown with St. John’s on Thursday. 

I promptly backed the Friars in that game and they delivered with an emphatic 94-72 victory as 6-point road underdogs.  I’ll back them again here as they are simply catching too many points as 9-point road underdogs at Creighton. 

Providence is going to want some revenge from a 58-70 loss to Creighton in the Big East Tournament last year.  And home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team has won three of the last four meetings outright, including both meetings last year.  Providence won 68-66 as 7-point road dogs at Creighton last year and returned all five starters from that team. 

The Friars are 7-0 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.  Providence is 10-2 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Friars are 16-3 ATS after two straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons.  Providence is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 vs. Big East opponents.  The Friars are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Bluejays are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Providence Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Nuggets OVER 215.5 

The 76ers are a much better team with Joel Embiid in the lineup, but they are also a much worse defensive team without him.  And that leads me to take the OVER here in this game between the 76ers and Nuggets tonight with Embiid out.  The 76ers play at a much faster tempo without him because they don’t have to run their offense through him.  They also play little to no defense. 

These two teams are mirror images of one another for the most part.  They both have skilled big men, they both thrive on offense, and they both play little defense.  The Nuggets average 111.7 points per game at home this season and give up 105.8 points per game overall.  The 76ers are averaging 107.9 point points per game overall and giving up 110.7 points per game on the road. 

The Nuggets are coming off a 125-128 overtime loss at Minnesota, while the 76ers are coming off a 110-114 loss in Portland.  The last time these two teams met up came in Denver last year with the 76ers winning 124-122 for 246 combined points. 

The OVER is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The OVER is 4-1 in 76ers last five vs. Western Conference foes.  Denver is 16-3 OVER in home games off a division game over the last three seasons.  The Nuggets are 10-1 OVER after a combined score of 245 points or more over the last two years.  Denver is 32-11 OVER versus poor defensive teams allow 106 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday. 

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Marshall -2 

The Marshall Thundering Herd have been one of the most underrated teams in the country since Dan D’Antoni took over a few years ago.  They are off to a 10-4 start this season, and they are 27-14 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons. 

Marshall is a perfect 9-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.6 points per game on average.  Now they face a LA Tech team that is 0-3 in true road games this season.  I think we are getting quite the discount here with Marshall as only a 2-point home favorite. 

LA Tech is 2-10 ATS in Saturday road games over the last three seasons.  Marshall is 6-0 ATS off two straight wins by 15 points or more over the last three years.  The Thundering Herd are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet Marshall Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Alabama +1

The No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies are a good team to fade opening SEC play.  They are overvalued due to their 11-1 start.  But this isn’t the same team that they were early in the season due to all the injuries and suspensions here of late. 

That has shown up in their last two games as the Aggies only beat Northern Kentucky by 6 and Buffalo by 16 at home.  Now they will be playing just their second true road games of the entire season.  And they are missing leading scorer DJ Hogg (14.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg) due to a suspension and third-leading scorer Admon Gilder (12.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg) due to a knee injury. 

Alabama was banged-up early but now is healthy and will be a dangerous team moving forward under Avery Johnson.  The Crimson Tide have gone 5-1 at home this season with solid wins over Texas-Arlington, LA Tech and Rhode Island. 

Texas A&M is 3-11 ATS following an ATS win over the last two seasons.  Alabama is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games after scoring 50 points or fewer.  The Crimson Tide are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Aggies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Take Alabama Saturday. 

25* NBA Revenge GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls -2.5 

The Chicago Bulls are 9-2 SU & 10-1 ATS since Nikola Mirotic made his season debut.  They are getting contributions from everywhere and continue to be one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA at this point in the season. 

Now the mission will be to avenge a 96-98 road loss at Indiana the game before this streak started.  The Bulls led that game 83-69 entering the fourth quarter, but were outscored 29-13 in the final period.  There’s no question they haven’t forgotten that loss and will want to get their revenge at home this time around. 

I like their chances considering Indiana is likely to be without its best player in Victor Oladipo in this one.  Oladipo missed the last game with knee soreness and is doubtful to play tonight.  It would be a huge loss for the Pacers as he averages 24.9 points per game and is their emotional leader. 

The Bulls are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 6-0 ATS in their last six home games and 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The home team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings and is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings.  Take the Bulls Friday. 

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Illinois +16 

The Iowa Hawkeyes are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  This is a team that lost by 24 to VA Tech, by 9 to LA Lafayette, but 8 to South Dakota State and by 13 to Indiana among their six losses already this season. 

But people are quick to forget those awful losses because the Hawkeyes have won four in a row coming into this game, including covering three straight spreads.  But those four wins came against Southern University, Drake, Southern Utah and Colorado.  It hasn’t exactly been murderer’s row to say the least. 

Now the Hawkeyes have to face a game Northern Illinois team that hasn’t lost any game by more than 14 points this season.  The Huskies covered as 15.5-point underdogs in a 14-point loss at Iowa State, the same Iowa State team that beat Iowa 84-78.  Even more impressively, they only lost 70-79 at Marquette as 16.5-point dogs. 

I think this is a lookahead spot for Iowa to a big showdown with Michigan on January 2nd as they get back into conference play.  NIU is 74-46 ATS in its last 120 games as a dog of 10 or more points.  The Huskies are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Roll with Northern Illinois Friday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 

The Minnesota Timberwolves will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a grueling 128-125 overtime victory over the Denver Nuggets last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight, especially since they are expected to be without starting PG Jeff Teague. 

Milwaukee comes into this game highly motivated for a victory after back-to-back losses to Charlotte and Chicago.  The Bucks will be the much fresher team as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight. 

The home team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  The Bucks own the Timberwolves, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  They won their last three home meetings with the Timberwolves by 7, 15 and 14 points.  The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings overall. 

The Timberwolves are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Bucks are 3-0-1 ATS In their last four games vs. at team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 1-8 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Timberwolves are 17-42 ATS in their last 59 after scoring 120 points or more in their previous game.  The Bucks are 25-12 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games over the past three seasons.  Bet the Bucks Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Bradley/Drake OVER 139

The Drake Bulldogs play an up-tempo system under first-year head coach Niko Medved now.  The betting markets have been slow to catch up as the OVER is 7-3 in all Drake games this season.  I look for a high-scoring affair tonight in their conference opener with Bradley. 

Drake is putting up 79.5 points per game and giving up 77.6 points per game on the season.  They are shooting 41% from 3-point range which has been the key to their offensive success.  But they still don’t play any defense, giving up 47.4% shooting to opponents. 

Just looking at this head-to-head history it’s easy to see there’s value with the OVER.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings, and that was before Medved was head coach at Drake.  They combined for 143 or more points in four of the five meetings.  And they averaged 145.0 combined points per game in those five meetings.  Drake will control the tempo playing at home tonight. 

Drake is 8-1 OVER at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The OVER is 9-1 in Drake’s last 10 December games.  The OVER is 5-1 in Bulldogs last six games overall.  The OVER is 9-2 in Bulldogs last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 45-20 in Bulldogs last 65 home games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Providence +6.5 

The Providence Friars are are undervalued right now because of a 2-9 ATS start to the season.  But that is largely due to some significant injuries, and this team is getting healthy heading into conference season.  I expect them to make a statement with likely an upset victory over St. John’s tonight, though we’ll take the points for some insurance. 

St. John’s is getting a lot of love due to its 10-2 start to the season.  But the Red Storm have played a considerably weaker schedule than Providence.  They still haven’t played a true road game, and they lost to the best teams they faced in Missouri (82-90) and Arizona State (70-82) on a neutral court.  The Red Storm are still without their best player in G Marcus Lovett, who is doubtful tonight with an ankle injury. 

Providence is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with St. John’s.  Home-court advantage has meant very little as the road team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Providence has won its last three trips to St. John’s by 11, 14 and 17 points. 

The Friars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big East opponents.  Providence is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games.  St. John’s is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Providence Thursday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +9.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are in a big hangover spot tonight against the Sacramento Kings.  They just lost to their biggest rivals in the Golden State Warriors 99-92 on Christmas Day.  There’s no way they will bring the same intensity to this game against the Kings that they did against the Warriors. 

That’s especially the case considering they just beat the Kings 101-95 as 12.5-point home favorites earlier this month.  They will think they can just show up and win, while the Kings will be ultra motivated to get revenge and pull off the upset. 

I realize the Kings played last night against the Clippers on the road, but that was a blowout and they won’t be fatigued because of it.  They were probably looking ahead to this game.  And this will be just their 3rd game in 7 days, so the effects of the back-to-back are a non-factor here. 

Cleveland is 0-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40% this season.  The Cavaliers are 3-14 ATS vs. teams with losing records this season.  Cleveland is 0-12 ATS as a favorite of 9.5 or more points this season.  The Cavaliers are 5-21 ATS as a favorite this year.  Bet the Kings Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado State +11.5 

The head-to-head series between Colorado State and Boise State has been remarkably close.  That’s why the Rams getting 11.5 points here is way too much, and I think there’s a ton of value with this double-digit underdog tonight. 

Indeed, each of the last seven meetings in this series have been decided by 7 points or fewer.  They have been decided by 3, 1, 7, 4, 4, 4, and 6 points in the last seven meetings, respectively.  Colorado State has gone 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. 

Boise State is 1-8 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are actually losing 74.4 to 74.6 on average in this spot.  The Rams are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 conference games.  The Broncos are 1-8 ATS in their last nine conference games.  Roll with Colorado State Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets +1.5 

The Boston Celtics are running on fumes right now.  They haven’t had two straight days off since November 28-29.  They will be playing their 11th game in 19 days here tonight, and they have a home game against Houston on deck tomorrow. 

It’s no wonder the Celtics are currently going through their roughest stretch of the season.  They have lost three of their last four to Miami, New York and Washington.  The Celtics are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. 

Making matters worse for the Celtics is that they are banged-up right now.  They are without Marcus Morris, Jaylen Brown and Semi Ojeleye for this game.  Their depth, which has been a huge strength up to this point, has been compromised. 

The Hornets are fresh and ready to go tonight as they have had three days off since beating the Bucks 111-106 at home on Saturday.  They are also extremely healthy right now for the first time basically all season as they only significant player they are missing is bench player Cody Zeller. 

The Hornets blew a 57-41 halftime lead and lost 87-90 at Boston in their only meeting against the Celtics this season.  They will be motivated for revenge at home this time around.  The Hornets are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days.  Take the Hornets Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -1.5 

The Detroit Pistons are getting zero respect from oddsmakers as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Indiana Pacers tonight.  They are 4-1 in their last five games overall and deserve to be getting more respect here tonight.  One of those was a 104-98 road win at Indiana as 5-point underdogs. 

The Pacers are just 3-3 in their last six games.  Their three wins came against Brooklyn (twice) and Atlanta, two of the worst teams in the NBA.  Now they have to travel and face a Pistons team that has a huge home-court advantage over the past several seasons, going 10-5 at home this year. 

The Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on three or more days’ rest. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The favorite is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Pistons Tuesday. 

20* Rockets/Thunder NBA No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City +2 

The Oklahoma City Thunder have had this game circled all offseason.  They lost 4-1 to the Rockets in the playoffs with three of those losses coming by 6 points or fewer.  They were a one-man show with Russell Westbrook then, but that’s the case no longer now. 

The Thunder have finally started to gel with Paul George and Carmelo Anthony.  They are playing their best basketball of the season right now, going 6-1 in their last seven games overall coming in.  They are primed to upset the Houston Rockets on Christmas Day. 

The Rockets have struggled of late with back-to-back upset home losses to the Lakers are 15-point favorites and the Clippers as 12.5-point favorites.  It’s easy to see why they’ve struggled with their injuries right now.  Chris Paul has missed the past couple games and is doubtful, Luc Mbah a Moute remains out, and Clint Capela is questionable. 

The Thunder are 40-18-3 ATS in their last 61 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Oklahoma City is 12-4 at home this season, winning by 7.0 points per game on average.  Take the Thunder Monday. 

15* 76ers/Knicks ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on New York -3 

One of the best bets of the early NBA season is backing the New York Knicks when at home.  They are 15-5 SU & 15-5 ATS in their 20 home games this year, winning by an average of 7.0 points per game.  Madison Square Garden is becoming the home-court advantage that it used to be. 

Now the Knicks get to host the struggling Philadelphia 76ers, who are just 1-9 SU in their last 10 games overall.  The 76ers are also just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games.  They continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers night in and night out. 

The 76ers are dealing with a bunch of injuries right now, too.  Markelle Fultz is out, J.J. Redick is questionable and Joel Embiid is nursing a back injury, though he is likely to play today.  The Knicks are basically fully healthy outside of Tim Hardaway. 

New York is 7-0 ATS in home games after having won four or five of its last six games this season.  The 76ers are 0-8-1 ATS when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  New York is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games.  Roll with the Knicks Monday. 

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +8 

The Phoenix Suns continue to get no respect from oddsmakers since trading away Eric Bledsoe and losing Devin Booker to injury.  But this team has arguably been better since because they are so deep.  And they consistently catch more points in the underdog role than they should be getting, which is the case once again tonight as 8-point home dogs to the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

The Suns have gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have only gone 4-7 SU during this stretch, but only three of those seven losses came by more than this 8-point spread.  They have only played four games at home during this stretch, and only one of those game resulted in a loss by more than 8 points. 

Phoenix has played Minnesota extremely tough this season.  This will be the 4th and final meeting of the season, and the Suns are 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their first three meetings.  They won 118-110 as 10-point home dogs, won 108-106 as 12-point road dogs, and only lost 108-119 as 11-point road dogs for their only push.  So they have actually played the Timberwolves very evenly, and they should be able to stay within 8 points at home again. 

Minnesota is 21-37 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Timberwolves ar e3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning % of less than .400.  The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last five Saturday games.  Phoenix is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Suns Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz PK 

I love the spot for the Utah Jazz tonight.  They had yesterday off.  That followed a 100-89 home win over the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday, which came after an ugly 79-107 road loss at Oklahoma City on Wednesday.  Now the Jazz will be out for revenge getting to face the Thunder just three days later, but at Salt Lake City this time around. 

And the Thunder are extremely vulnerable coming into this game.  They won’t be motivated to beat a team they just blew out three days ago.  And they are coming off an emotional buzzer-beating 120-117 home win over the Hawks last night as 11.5-point home favorites.  It’s a clear letdown spot for them. 

Plus, the Thunder are running on fumes right now.  Not only will they be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, they will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days.  The Thunder haven’t had back-to-back days off since November 27-28.  This is such a tired team right now, and it helps explain why they are just 10-21 ATS on the season, including 5-11 SU & 4-12 ATS in road games. 

Utah 9-1 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season, including a perfect 7-0 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more.  The Thunder are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Oklahoma City is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  Utah is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games.  The home team is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Jazz Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Hornets UNDER 212 

This is one of my favorite situations to back an UNDER.  This is a home-and-home situation between the Bucks and Hornets.  These teams just played last night with the Bucks winning 109-104 at home.  Now they play again a day later in Charlotte this time around. 

So they combined for 213 points last night, and now the total is set at 212.  The second meeting in these home-and-home situations is almost always lower scoring than the first.  And I expect that to be the case here as these teams are obviously extremely familiar with one another. 

In fact, this will actually be the 4th and final meeting of the season between these teams already.  It will be their 4th meeting in a two months as their first meeting occurred on October 23rd.  No two teams are more familiar with each other than the Hornets and Bucks this season, which favors the defenses. 

Milwaukee is 39-22 UNDER in its last 61 road games where the total is 210 to 219.5.  Charlotte is 21-10 UNDER after having lost three of its last four games over the past two seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Hornets last four games playing on 0 days’ rest.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Hornets last 10 games when their opponent allowed 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia 76ers +10.5 

I love the Philadelphia 76ers in this spot.  This is a home-and-home situation after the 76ers lost 109-114 at home to the Toronto on Thursday.  Now they get their shot at revenge only two days later and are catching 10.5 points in the rematch to boot.  I’ll gladly back the more motivated team catching double-digit points here. 

The 76ers are certainly a ‘buy low’ team right now after going just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games.  But they were never once a double-digit underdog in those 13 games.  They were favored in eight of them.  Now they’re back to their more preferred role as underdogs. 

The Raptors are a great ‘sell high’ candidate right now.  They have gone 11-1 SU in their last 12 games while covering each of their last four against the spread.  But it has come against an extremely soft schedule, and it’s worth noting the Raptors are just 5-7 SU against teams who are above .500 this season.  They aren’t as good as they’re perceived to be right now. 

Plays against any team (Toronto) off two or more consecutive road wins, in December games are 76-35 (68.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on any team (Philadelphia) off a home loss to a division rival against opponent off a home win against a division foe are 49-18 (73.1%) ATS over the last five years.  Philadelphia is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the 76ers Saturday. 

15* Ohio State/UNC CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Ohio State +7 

Former Butler head coach Chris Holtmann was a great hire at Ohio State.  After a semi slow start to the season, this team has really kicked it into gear of late.  I think we are getting the Buckeyes at a great value here against UNC as 7-point underdogs on a neutral court down in New Orleans Saturday. 

The Buckeyes are 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat Wisconsin by 25 on the road as 7.5-point underdogs, and topped Michigan 71-62 as 2-point home favorites during this stretch.  The other three wins came by 35, 13 and 29 points against overmatched competition. 

The UNC Tar Heels are not playing well at all.  They trailed almost the entire way before going on a run late to squeak by Tennessee 78-73.  Then they suffered one of the most shocking losses of the season with a 75-79 home loss to Wofford as 25-point favorites on Wednesday, December 20th.  That’s not the kind of effort that would warrant them being 7-point favorites here. 

North Carolina is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60% and 80%.  Plays against neutral court teams as a favorite or PK (UNC) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, in December games are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS since 1997.  The Buckeyes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. ACC opponents.  Bet Ohio State Saturday. 

20* Lakers/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +11 

The Los Angeles Lakers are going to want revenge from two overtime home losses to the Golden State Warriors already this season.  They lost 123-127 as 13.5-point dogs, and then 114-116 as 5.5-point dogs on December 18th just five days ago.  I really like the revenge factor being fresh in this quick rematch. 

The Lakers are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have been on the road for five of these six games, pulling off upset wins over Philadelphia as 8.5-point dogs, Houston as 15-point dogs and Charlotte as 3.5-point dogs.  And all three of their losses came by 2, 4 and 9 points.  That 9-point loss came in a cover as 10.5-point dogs at Cleveland. 

The Warriors are vulnerable right now because of all their injuries.  Steph Curry, Zaza Pachulia and Shaun Livingston remain out, Andre Iguodala is questionable, and Draymond Green is expected to play tonight but is battling as shoulder injury.  I don’t expect a very focused effort from the Warriors tonight after just beating the Lakers on Monday. 

Plays on road teams (LA Lakers) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, a bad team winning 25% to 40% of their games are 54-25 (68.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Lakers are 6-0 ATS in their last six when playing on one days’ rest.  The Warriors are 10-24 ATS in their last 34 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Bet the Lakers Friday. 

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Iowa +6.5 

The Xavier Musketeers are clearly vulnerable right now due to all their injuries.  That has shown in their last two games.  They beat East Tennessee State 68-66 as 21.5-point favorites, needing to erase a 22-point second half deficit to do so.  Then they only beat Marshall 81-77 as 19-point home favorites last time out. 

That Marshall game was on Tuesday, so they have only had two days to get ready for Northern Iowa.  Now four key players are questionable to play tonight for the Musketeers.  They are three of their top four scorers in J.P. Macura (11.9 ppg, 4.4 rpg), Tyrique Jones (9.8 ppg, 6.4 rpg) and Kaiser Gates (9.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg), plus key bench player Naji Marshall (8.1 ppg). 

Northern Iowa is consistently one of the most underrated teams in the Missouri Valley year in and year out.  They are 8-3 SU this season with their only losses coming to North Carolina, Villanova and Iowa State.  They have beaten UNLV, NC State and SMU, so they have gone through the gauntlet.  Now they are going to want revenge from two losses to Xavier last season. 

They didn’t get to play Xavier at home last year, but they do this season, and they have a great home-court advantage.  The Panthers are 6-0 at home this season winning by 23.5 points per game on average. The Musketeers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss.  Take Northern Iowa Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Pistons UNDER 203.5 

The New York Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight after a 102-93 home win over the Boston Celtics last night.  Kristaps Porzingis made his return from injury, but went 0-for-11 and didn’t attempt a shot in the second half.  He clearly isn’t 100% and it wouldn’t surprise me if they continue to rest him tonight. 

The Pistons have really been struggling offensively of late.  They have been held to 100 or fewer points in seven of their last 11 games overall.  They have shot 43.6% or less in eight of those 11 games as well.  They miss Avery Bradley and Jon Leuer, who are both out with injury right now. 

Both of these teams prefer to play at slower tempos.  The Pistons rank 21st in pace while the Knicks are 19th.  The UNDER is 4-2 in the last six meetings as these teams have combined for 204 or fewer points in four of those six.  I think we see a very low-scoring game tonight given the tough situation for the Knicks, and the offensive struggles of the Pistons. 

The UNDER is 25-12-1 in Knicks last 38 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Pistons last 11 games overall.  The UNDER is 20-5-1 in Pistons last 26 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Pistons last five Friday games.  The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Detroit.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday. 

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia -3 

The Georgia Bulldogs have been one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season.  They are 8-2 on the year, including 5-0 at home.  Mark Fox has one of his best teams yet and a clear NCAA Tournament team this year. 

The Temple Owls have too many concerning performances of late to trust them only catching 3 points on the road here.  They have losses to both La Salle and George Washington, they only beat St. Joe’s by 3 as 10.5-point favorites, lost to Villanova by 20 as 9.5-point dogs, and barely beat Drexel by 3 last time out as 16-point home favorites.  Those efforts show they can’t compete with Georgia. 

Georgia is 10-2 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread over the last two seasons.  Temple is 1-9 ATS versus teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  The Owls are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Roll with Georgia Friday. 

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland State +5.5 

The Portland State Vikings have been one of the most underrated teams in college basketball.  They have gone 9-3 SU and a perfect 9-0 ATS in their nine lined games.  Now they’re catching 5.5 points tonight against a rebuilding California Bears team in a game that they’ll likely win outright. 

The Vikings’ three losses have all come against very good teams.  They lost 81-99 as 24.5-point dogs to Duke, 69-71 as 12-point dogs to Butler, and 84-95 as 13-point road dogs at Oregon.  They have beaten Stanford and everyone else they have faced this year. 

California is just 6-6 with losses to the likes of UC-Riverside (66-74) as 13.5-point favorites at home, Chaminade (72-96) without a line on the road and Central Arkansas (69-96) without a line at home.  Those three results right there should show just how poor of shape the Bears are really in this season. 

California is 0-8 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 0-9 ATS in home games versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two years.  The Vikings are 9-0 ATS in all games this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Vikings.  Roll with Portland State Thursday. 

15* Celtics/Knicks TNT Thursday No-Brainer on New York +3 

The Boston Celtics are in an extremely difficult spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They haven’t had consecutive days off in the entire month of December.   

This team is running on fumes right now, and it showed their their 89-90 upset home loss to the Miami Heat. They will also be playing their 8th game in 12 days tonight.  I don’t expect much of an effort at all from them tonight. 

Meanwhile, the Knicks have had two days off since last playing on Monday.  And they get a big boosts with he return of Kristaps Porzingis to the lineup tonight after he missed the past two games with a sore knee. 

The Knicks have been a great beat at home this season, going 14-5 SU & 14-5 ATS inside Madison Square Garden.  The Celtics are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 0 days’ rest.  New York is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  Take the Knicks Thursday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +10.5 

The Chicago Bulls are now 7-0 since Nikola Mirotic made his season debut seven games ago.  He is averaging 19.6 points per game and the bench is playing great.  The Bulls are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as 10.5-point underdogs here. 

Chicago will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here after a 112-94 home win over Orlando last night.  But that’s not a concern because of their deep bench, and the fact that no player logged more than 29 minutes Wednesday, so the team should be relatively fresh as a whole. 

The Cars are way overvalued due to winning 18 of their last 20 games.  They have gone just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They aren’t blowing teams out.  And now they have their NBA Finals rematch with Golden State on deck on Christmas Day and can’t help but be looking ahead to that huge showdown. 

The Bulls have had the Cavaliers’ number, going 6-3 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Chicago is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 Thursday games.  The Bulls are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Cavaliers are 5-21-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.  Bet the Bulls Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -2 

The Portland Trail Blazers are on a roll right now and they’re still being undervalued tonight as only 2-point favorites over the San Antonio Spurs.  The Blazers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. 

While they are just 3-3 SU during this stretch, they have played five of their last six on the road.  And their three losses came to Houston (by 7), Golden State (by 7) and Minnesota (by 1), three of the best teams in the NBA.  This recent stretch of great play has been possible by the fact that the Blazers have gotten 100% healthy. 

The Spurs are usually one of the best teams in the NBA, but they won’t be tonight with all the players they’ll be missing due to injury.  San Antonio will be without both Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker, plus Danny Green and Kyle Anderson are both banged up as well.  They won’t have enough firepower to hang with the Blazers tonight. 

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Portland) - after a close loss by 3 points or less against opponent that scored 105 or more points in their previous game are 51-21 (70.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Portland is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 home meetings with San Antonio.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Chicago Bulls -4.5 

The Chicago Bulls are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS since Nikola Mirotic made his season debut.  They are playing team basketball and I’m going to continue riding them tonight.  Mirotic is averaging 23.2 points per game over his past five games. 

"You can see it in the locker room," Chicago guard Kris Dunn said. "Everybody has a smile, everyone is happy. That's what it's all about. I think the biggest thing, the reason why we are winning is because we are having fun with it. When you are having fun, when you are winning, things (are) a lot smoother.”

Now the Bulls get to play the banged-up Orlando Magic, who have lost five straight coming in to fall to 11-20 on the season.  They are missing two starters in Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon, and their 6th man Terrence Ross remains out as well.  They simply do not have the talent elsewhere to make up for the losses of these three key players.

Chicago has owned Orlando, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with the four wins coming by 22, 47, 32 and 8 points.  That 22-point win came earlier this season on November 3rd in Orlando.  The Magic are 0-7 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent this season.  Orlando is 16-40-2 ATS in its last 58 games following an ATS win.  Chicago is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Take the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets -5 

The Sacramento Kings are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Now they are getting too much respect from the books for their upset win over Philadelphia last night, a tired Philly team that was playing the 2nd of a back-to-back itself. 

The Nets are rested and ready to go as they have had two days off since losing to Indiana on Sunday.  They will also be motivated for a victory after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, which has them undervalued as well.  The Nets had gone 10-2 ATS in their previous 12 games and I feel like they are back to being undervalued here. 

The Kings are 14-25 ATS off a win over the last two seasons.  Sacramento is 16-34-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The Kings are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games on 0 days’ rest.  The Nets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Brooklyn is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a loss.  The Nets are 43-19-2 ATS in their last 64 vs. NBA Pacific Division foes.  The Kings are 1-7 ATS in their last eight trips to Brooklyn.  Roll with the Nets Wednesday. 

15* Houston/Providence ESPNU No-Brainer on Houston -4.5 

The Houston Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Head coach Kelvin Sampson has this team playing at a very high level.  They are off to a 9-2 start this season with their two losses coming by 3 and 4 points.  They even beat Arkansas 91-65 as 4-point home dogs for their signature win. 

Providence is struggling against the spread right now due to all their injuries.  They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They only beat Rider 88-84 as 14-point favorites, lost at Rhode Island 68-75 as 4-point dogs, only beat Brown 77-72 as 18.5-point home favorites, lost at UMass 63-72 as 4.5-point favorites.  And there wasn’t even a line in their last game against Stony Brook, and they only won that game 62-60 at home. 

The Friars' best player Emmitt Holt is out for the season.  Both Alpha Diallo (11.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg) and Maliek White (6.1 ppg) are doubtful to play tonight.  And their floor general in point guard Kyron Cartwright (9.4 ppg, 6.0 apg) is questionable after suffering an ankle injury in his previous game.  They are simply missing too many players right now, which is the reason for their recent struggles. 

Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or PK (Houston) - an explosive offensive team scoring 76 or more points per game against a good offensive team (74-76 ppg), after scoring 75 points or more in three straight games are 77-38 (67%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last six after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  The Friars are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Houston Wednesday. 

15* Cavs/Bucks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee +2.5 

The Milwaukee Bucks are primed for a big effort tonight.  They have lost three straight coming in and will be highly motivated for a victory.  They have also had two days off since a 111-115 loss at Houston as 10.5-point dogs on Saturday, which was as tough as anyone has played the Rockets during their 14-game winning streak. 

The Cleveland Cavaliers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here tonight.  They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after going 18-1 in their last 19 games overall.  But they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall as they have consistently been overvalued. 

Milwaukee will also be out for revenge after losing each of their first two meetings this season to the Cavaliers.  They want to prove they can beat the defending Eastern Conference champs, who are much more vulnerable this season than they have been in year’s past due to trading Kyrie Irving and with all their current injuries. 

Cleveland is a woeful 5-19 ATS as a favorite this season.  Milwaukee is 17-4 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 6.9 points per game on average in this spot.  Take the Bucks Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Belmont +6.5 

The Belmont Bruins cannot be this big of road underdogs to Western Kentucky given how well they have played on the road this season.  And this is a WKU team that returned zero starters from last year and simply isn’t very good. 

Belmont has road losses to Washington (82-86), Providence (65-66) and TCU (76-87) that show they are capable of beating Western Kentucky.  They also have a road win at Middle Tennessee (69-63) as 7-point underdogs and a home win over Vanderbilt (69-60) as 4-point underdogs. 

Western Kentucky is actually a tired team right now as this will be their 4th game in 9 days, which is a lot when you consider last week was Finals Week.  And the Hilltoppers won’t have many fans in attendance at home here with everyone on Spring Break, so the home-court advantage is neutralized. 

Belmont is 7-0 ATS in road games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the past two seasons.  The Bruins are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games overall.  The Bruins are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Hilltoppers are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Ohio Valley opponents.  Take Belmont Tuesday. 

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Drake/South Dakota State OVER 153.5 

We have the perfect storm for an OVER here with two teams that love to push the tempo in Drake and South Dakota State.  Niko Medved has brought his up-tempo system to Drake in his first year hear, and T.J. Otzelberger learned under Fred Hoiberg at Iowa State and has brought that system to South Dakota State. 

The Jack Rabbits are averaging 83.9 points per game on the season and shooting an impressive 41.4% from 3-point range on 26 attempts per game.  They give up 76.1 points per game because of the frenetic pace they play at. 

The Bulldogs have really improved offensively this season, averaging 79.9 points per game and shooting 41.6% from 3-point range on 25 attempts per game.  They have been pretty poor defensively, though, allowing 78.6 points per game on 48.1% shooting. 

Drake is 7-0 OVER after allowing 85 points or more over the last two seasons.  South Dakota State is 13-3 OVER vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 25-10-1 in Bulldogs last 36 games following a loss.  The OVER is 8-2 in Jack Rabbits last 10 games following an ATS loss.  The OVER is 40-19-1 in Jack Rabbits last 60 non-conference games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. 

15* Marshall/Xavier CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Marshall +21 

The Marshall Thundering Herd are 8-3 this season and Dan D’Antoni, the broker of Mike D’Antoni of the Houston Rockets, has this offense hitting on all cylinders.  The Thundering Herd have won four straight coming in and are scoring 90.2 points per game on the season. 

Marshall is a very difficult team to prepare for, and that will be a problem for a Xavier team that needed to erase a 22-point deficit in the second half to beat lowly East Tennessee State 68-66 on Saturday as 21.5-point favorites.  They used a lot of energy to make that comeback, and they have only two days to get ready for Marshall.  They also won’t have many fans in attendance with this being Christmas Break. 

Xavier coach Chris Mack was impressed by what he saw on film from the Thundering Herd.  "I love the way they play offense," he said. "Elmore is a special player. He's as adept shooting threes as he is getting to the foul line. He's surrounded by some really skilled personnel."

"We have a lot of respect for Marshall," Mack said. "They do a great job of spacing the floor and playing with space. They are difficult to prepare for. It's a big challenge.”

Marshall is 9-2 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread over the past two seasons.  The Thundering Herd are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big East opponents.  I think the Musketeers find themselves in another battle they don’t want to be in tonight.  Roll with Marshall Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +2.5 

Since Nikola Mirotic returned to the Bulls’ lineup on December 8th, they have gone a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS.  They have beaten Charlotte and Milwaukee on the road, and New York, Boston and Utah at home.   

They were underdogs in all five games, and they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers here as home dogs tonight.  Mirotic has led the way in averaging 25 points in his past three games and is the team’s leading scorer on the season. 

The 76ers are in a hangover spot here off a triple-overtime loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Joel Embiid suffered a back injury in that game, but played all three overtimes.  He will now sit out this game to rest, as will Trevor Booker.  The 76ers aren’t nearly the same team without Embiid.  They have lost five of their last six games overall coming in. 

Philadelphia is 24-39 ATS off a home loss over the last three seasons.  Chicago is 25-9 ATS vs. good rebounding teams out-rebounding their opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three years.  The 76ers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  Chicago is 12-2 ATS In its last 14 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Roll with the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2 

The Boston Celtics have been one of the best teams in the NBA this season at 25-7.  Getting them as only 2-point road favorites over the Indiana Pacers is a nice bargain tonight, especially considering the tough spot the Pacers are in. 

Indiana will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 109-97 win in Brooklyn on Sunday.  The Pacers will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th game in 6 days.  The Celtics had yesterday off and will be re-energized here after beating the Grizzlies 102-93 on the road Saturday. 

The Celtics have owned the Pacers, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  All four wins came by 6 points or more, and most of those came against better Pacers teams that had Paul George.  This is a better Celtics team this season as Kyrie Irving and this young talent have really played at a high level all year. 

Boston is 11-0 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better this season.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in road games when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.  Boston is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 road games overall.  Indiana is 14-30-1 ATS in its last 45 games when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Take the Celtics Monday. 

15* Cavs/Wizards NBA Sunday No-Brainer on Washington PK 

The Washington Wizards just recently got back John Wall from injury.  It’s no surprise they have won their two games since his return.  And now they’re going to want to make a statement against the Cleveland Cavaliers, letting them know they are coming for them this season. 

And now the Cavaliers are ripe for the picking.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, as well as their 6th game in 10 days.  The Cars were already short-handed without Isaiah Thomas, Derrick Rose and Iman Shumpert, and now both Tristan Thompson and Dwyane Wade are expected to rest.  The Cavs are short on numbers and won’t have much left in the tank tonight. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Cleveland) after two or more consecutive wins, when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 72-37 (66.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Take the Wizards Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Raptors UNDER 206 

The UNDER is almost always a good bet in the situation that the Kings and Raptors are in today.  These teams just played each other on December 10th just seven days ago.  They are extremely familiar with each other because of it, and familiarity favors defense. 

The Kings are one of the slowest teams in the NBA.  They rank 28th in pace at 96.8 possessions per game.  And now they are expected to be without lighting-quick point guard De’Aaron Fox, who is doubtful with a quad injury.  The only time they push the pace is when he’s in, but now they will be even slower than usual without him. 

Toronto just beat Sacramento 102-87 for 189 combined points last Sunday.  Now they’ve set the total at 206, which is 17 points higher.  It’s clear that there’s value with the UNDER.  Not to mention, the UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  The last four meetings have seen 189, 201, 187 and 198 combined points, which is an average of just 193.8 combined points per game.  That’s also 12 points less than this 206-point total. 

The UNDER is 5-0 in Kings last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 15-7 in Kings last 22 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Raptors last four Sunday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Spurs UNDER 198 

I love betting the UNDER in this spot.  The Mavs and Spurs just played each other on Tuesday with the Mavs winning 95-89 at home.  So these teams are very familiar with one another, and now they’ll be playing each other just five days later.  This situation always favors the defenses and the UNDER. 

This has been a low-scoring series between the Mavs and Spurs anyway.  They have combined for 191 or fewer points in six of their last eight meetings.  They have averaged just 193.4 combined points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 5 points less than tonight’s posted total of 198. 

The Spurs will be without their best player in Kawhi Leonard as he gets a night of rest in this back-to-back situation.  The Mavs will be without starting point guard Dennis Smith Jr., who is arguably their best player and scorer as well.  These injuries will help aid this UNDER. 

The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Mavs last 17 Saturday games.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Mavs last 10 vs. Western Conference.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Spurs last nine when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +3 

The Oklahoma City Thunder just played a triple-overtime game against the Philadelphia 76ers last night.  It’s safe to say they won’t have anything left in the tank today, especially since all five starters played basically the entire 15 minutes of overtime.  Russell Westbrook played 52 minutes, Steven Adams 51, Paul George 45, Carmelo Anthony 47 and Andre Roberson 34. 

The Knicks will be motivated for the Anthony reunion to prove that they are a better team without him.  They will also be rested after having yesterday off.  The Knicks are 13-5 SU & 13-5 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 6.5 points per game on average.  They have been one of the most profitable teams to bet at home this season. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Oklahoma City) - off a road win by 3 points or less, when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Thunder are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games, and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the Knicks Saturday. 

15* Oklahoma/Wichita State CBB No-Brainer on Wichita State -7.5 

The Wichita State Shockers are ranked No. 3 in the country thanks to their 8-1 start and their five returning starters from last year.  They have played the gauntlet, facing the likes of Cal, Marquette, Notre Dame, Baylor and Oklahoma State with all five of those games either on a neutral or on the road. 

Now they get Oklahoma at home in one of the most hostile arenas in college basketball.  And I think this Oklahoma team is way overrated and doesn’t have a real good victory to its name yet.  USC and Oregon are both down, and they lost tot he best team they have faced in Arkansas 83-92.   

Now the Shockers will be the best team they have played yet, and it will actually be their first true road game of the season.  I don’t expect this young Sooners team led by freshman Trae Young to be able to handle this situation very well at all. 

Oklahoma is 0-8 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Sooners are 1-9 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in five straight games over the last three seasons.  The Shockers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Roll with Wichita State Saturday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +1 

The Denver Nuggets have actually been able to sustain success despite the losses of their two best players in Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap in recent weeks.  But they don’t have to play without both any longer as Jokic is expected to make his return from an ankle injury tonight. 

The Pelicans haven’t won back-to-back games since November 22-24.  They have gone just 4-6 since and are coming off a 115-108 home victory over Milwaukee on Wednesday.  Now they’ll be playing their 4th game in 6 days and their 9th game in 15 days.  This is a tired team right now. 

The Nuggets are going to want revenge from a 123-114 road loss at New Orleans on December 6th just over a week ago.  The Nuggets won their three previous meetings with the Pelicans, including blowout home wins by 32 and 16 points.  They should not be home underdogs here tonight. 

The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Denver is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 Friday games.  The Pelicans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 trips to Denver.  Bet the Nuggets Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Grizzlies UNDER 198 

Nothing has changed with the grit ’n grind Memphis Grizzlies this season.  They are still a team that cannot score the ball, but they lay it on the line defensively every night.  Of course, it hurts that they lost their best player in PG Mike Conley, and they are also playing without Wayne Selden and Brandan Wright, and possibly Tyreke Evans tonight. 

The UNDER is 10-4 in Grizzlies last 14 games overall.  They have failed to score more than 95 points in 11 of those 14 games.  But they have given up 100 or fewer in seven of those.  Now they face a tired Hawks team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight.  Don’t expect them to try and get up and down the floor with any kind of tempo tonight. 

The Grizzlies rank 30th in the NBA in pace at 95.7 possessions per game, and they’ll control the tempo playing at home here tonight.  Memphis ranks 27th in offensive efficiency while Atlanta is 21st.  So it will be a slow tempo between two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA, which is a perfect recipe for an UNDER. 

The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these teams.  They have combined for 197 or fewer points in six of those seven meetings.  They are averaging just 186.4 combined points per game in those seven meetings, which is nearly 12 points less than tonight’s posted total of 198.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday. 

15* Thunder/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia -1.5 

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the most overrated team in the NBA to this point.  They are just 13-14 SU & 8-18 ATS, including 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS on the road.  They have gone just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

The problem with the Thunder is that in trading for Carmelo Anthony and Paul George, they traded away all their depth.  Their bench is awful, and Anthony has proven to be a cancer in Oklahoma City just like he was in New York. 

The 76ers will be hungry for a victory after losing four of their last five coming in.  They have had two days off to get ready for the Thunder after last playing on Tuesday.  They are almost fully healthy now as the only player they will be missing tonight Is Markelle Fultz.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series. 

The 76ers are 20-4 ATS off two consecutive non-conference games over the past two seasons.  Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who average 9 or more steals per game over the last two seasons.  The Thunder are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The 76ers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games playing on two days’ rest.  Philadelphia is 42-16-1 ATS in its last 59 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Take the 76ers Friday. 

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +10.5 

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been an overvalued commodity this season due to the signing of Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague.  They are consistently laying prices that they cannot handle, and I think that’s the case again here tonight as double-digit favorites over the Kings. 

The Timberwolves are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are a mediocre 16-12 SU on the season as well.  They are only outscoring the opposition by 0.6 points per game on the season, including just 2.2 points per game at home.  They aren’t blowing out teams on the regular. 

The Kings have been a nice money-maker for backers over the past three weeks.  They have been flying under the radar, going 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have three upset victories during this stretch, including a road win at Golden State as 12.5-point dogs. 

The Kings are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Timberwolves, winning twice outright as underdogs.  Sacramento is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Kings are 4-0-2 ATS in their last six road games.  The Timberwolves are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Roll with the Kings Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -1 

The Brooklyn Nets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 11-15 SU & 17-9 ATS while being one of the most profitable teams to back.  Now they just have to win to cover at home tonight against the Knicks, and I think they get the job done. 

The Knicks have been a great team to back at home, but a terrible one on the road.  They are just 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS on the highway this season.  They are getting outscored by a whopping 11.8 points per game on the road too, scoring just 97.2 on average and giving up 109.0 per game. 

The Nets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Brooklyn is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  New York is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take the Nets Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland State +15 

The Portland State Vikings are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have opened 8-2 SU and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their eight lined games.  Now they are catching 15 points from a rebuilding Oregon team that has no business laying this kind of number. 

Portland State’s two losses this season came to Duke (81-99) as 24.5-point underdogs on a neutral and Butler (69-71) as 12-point dogs on a neutral.  The Vikings have pulled outright upsets over UC-Riverside, Utah State, Stanford, Loyola-Marymount and Santa Clara with four of those wins coming on the road.  This team just continues to lack the respect they deserve. 

Oregon is just 7-3 SU & 4-5 ATS on the season.  The Ducks returned just one starter from last year.  They have been upset by UConn and Boise State, and they also lost to Oklahoma by 10.  Their 74-68 win over Texas Southern as 20-point home favorites on Monday was also a concerning result.  Now they have had just one day to get ready for Portland State. 

The Vikings are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.  The Ducks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Oregon is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  The Vikings are 7-0 ATS as an underdog this season.  Roll with Portland State Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +11.5 

The Phoenix Suns have been playing without Devin Booker, but they have actually been competitive without him.  They have lost their last three games without him, but they were all by 10 points or less to Washington (by 10), San Antonio (by 3) and Sacramento (by 7). 

I think they get the cover with ease tonight against a Toronto Raptors team that is getting too much respect for its 6-1 run.  But those seven games have come against the lines of Atlanta, Charlotte, Indiana, Phoenix, Memphis, Sacramento and the LA Clippers.  They have feasted on an easy schedule, and they cannot be laying 11.5 points on the road here. 

The Suns simply have the Raptors’ number.  They have gone 6-3 SU and a perfect 9-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  They covered as 14.5-point road dogs in a 13-point loss on December 5th, and they will want revenge just a week later here catching 11.5 points at home. 

The Suns are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Phoenix is 7-2 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Suns are 20-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 70% over the last three seasons.  Take the Suns Wednesday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2.5 

The Miami Heat are rested right now, which has led to back-to-back blowout wins over Brooklyn (101-89) in Mexico City and Memphis (107-82) on the road.  The Heat will be playing just their 4th game in 10 days tonight. 

Now they host a Portland Trail Blazers team that has really been struggling.  The Blazers are 0-5 in their last five five games overall despite playing four of those five games at home.  They lost at Golden State on Monday, and it’s always tough to get back up after playing the defending champs.  I certainly don’t like the spot for the Blazers here. 

The Blazers have played their last two games without two key pieces in center Just Nurkic and small forward Maurice Harkless.  Both Nurkic and Harmless are questionable to return tonight.  The Heat have proven they can still play great basketball without Hassan Whiteside, who is expected to be out until the end of December with a bone bruise in his knee. 

The Blazers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a loss.  The Heat are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Miami is 22-11 ATS off two consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons.  Bet the Heat Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +4.5 

The Washington Wizards have played their last eight games without John Wall, who may return Wednesday against Memphis.  But he’s out again tonight, and they are just 4-4 without him.  They shouldn’t be favored on the road here against the Brooklyn Nets. 

The Nets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 10-15 SU & 16-9 ATS.  They have been competitive in most games.  They have one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and that depth is what is allowing them to hang with teams that they aren’t expected to. 

The Nets also are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA.  They are averaging 108.6 points per game overall, including 113.7 points per game at home.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings. 

The Nets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Brooklyn is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following a loss.  Washington is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Brooklyn is rested and is 48-26 ATS in its last 74 games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days.  The Nets are a perfect 8-0 ATS versus good offensive teams who score 106 or more points per game this season.  Take the Nets Tuesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks +11.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are grossly overrated right now due to winning 14 of their last 15 games overall.  They are being asked to lay big numbers that they just can’t cover consistently.  They are just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games despite this recent run of straight up wins. 

Now the Cavs are up against an Atlanta hawks team that has given them fits.  The Hawks are 1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS in their two meetings with the Cavs this season.  They won 117-115 as 11-point road dogs in Cleveland on November 5th, and only lost 114-121 as 7.5-point home dogs on November 30th.  The Hawks are 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Cleveland overall. 

Atlanta comes in flying way under the radar.  The Hawks have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only ATS loss came in a tough spot in a home-and-home situation with the Brooklyn Nets.  They had beaten Brooklyn on the road two nights earlier, then predictably fell flat in the rematch. 

The Cavs could be without Kevin Love tonight, who is questionable.  They are already without Isaiah Thomas, Derrick Rose and Iman Shumpert.  And John Collins could make his return from a shoulder injury tonight for the Hawks. 

Plays against any team (Cleveland) after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  The Cavs are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Cleveland is 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 home games.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Columbia +12 

Off their shocking 89-84 upset win as 15-point underdogs to Duke on Saturday, the Boston College Eagles are in a massive letdown spot tonight against Columbia.  They won’t show up at all, and don’t be surprised if they lose outright.  But I certainly love getting Columbia as 12-point dogs in this spot. 

This is the same Boston College team that lost by 11 to Texas Tech, by 22 to Providence and by 9 to Nebraska.  It’s also a BC team that only beat Colgate 83-79 in its previous home game before beating Duke.  Go figure. 

Columbia is much better than its 1-9 record would indicate.  This team has simply had brutal luck in close games, losing seven times by 10 points or less.  The two exceptions?  A 15-point road loss as 25.5-point dogs at Villanova and a 14-point road loss as 13.5-point dogs at Penn State.  That effort against Villanova alone shows that this team is more than capable of hanging with Boston College on the road tonight. 

Columbia is 54-31 ATS in its last 85 games as a dog of 10 points or more.  Columbia is 32-10 ATS in its last 42 games as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points.  Boston College is 9-24 ATS in its last 33 home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game.  The Eagles are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. teams who allow 45% or more shooting to opponents.  The Lions are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss.  The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Roll with Columbia Tuesday.