01-25-16 |
Rockets v. Pelicans -4.5 |
|
112-111 |
Loss |
-107 |
8 h 48 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4.5
I've been riding the New Orleans Pelicans with a ton of success of late. I'll continue riding them tonight as the odds simply have not caught up to how well they are playing right now. They should be more than 4.5-point home favorites over the Houston Rockets tonight.
The Pelicans are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Their last four losses have all come by 5 points or less, which is how close they are to being 9-0 in their last nine games. Four of their last five victories have come by 12 points or more, so they are dominating the opposition.
Houston is in a tough spot tonight as it will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days. This is a tired team already, and making matters worse is the fact that the Rockets are expected to be without Dwight Howard. The Pelicans had yesterday off and will be the fresher team. Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 110 points or more are 76-39 (66.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Pelicans are 16-7-1 ATS in the last 24 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five home meetings. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings as well. Take the Pelicans Monday.
|
01-25-16 |
Celtics v. Wizards -2.5 |
|
116-91 |
Loss |
-108 |
7 h 6 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -2.5
The Washington Wizards are showing excellent value as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Boston Celtics tonight. There are a number of factors in favor of the Wizards, not the least of which is the fact that they'll be highly motivated to avoid the season sweep after losing their first three meetings with Boston this year.
The Wizards have been playing well of late. They are 5-2 in their last seven games overall, which includes blowout road wins over Chicago (by 14) and Indiana (by 14), as well as a blowout home win over Miami (by 19). One of their two losses was a tough 117-119 home loss to these Celtics on January 16, so they'll be motivated to avenge that defeat just over a week ago.
Washington will be the much more rested team heading in. Indeed, it has had a whopping four days off in between games, so it will be fresh and ready to go. Boston will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 7th game in 11 days, so it is running on fumes right now. Look for the Wizards to win all of the hustle plays tonight.
Plays on home favorites (WASHINGTON) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival are 63-30 (67.7%) ATS since 1996. The Wizards are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Roll with the Wizards Monday.
|
01-24-16 |
Clippers v. Raptors -2 |
|
94-112 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 3 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -2
The Toronto Raptors are playing their best basketball of the season heading into this game with the Los Angeles Clippers Sunday. I look for them to continue to roll tonight and to easily cover this 2-point spread.
Toronto has gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall with all six of the wins coming by 6 points or more, including five by 9 points or more. The Clippers are playing well, too, but they are still without Blake Griffin. Plus, this will be their 3rd road game in 4 days, so it's a tough spot for them.
The Raptors have had the Clippers' number in recent meetings. Indeed, the Raptors are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Clippers. They won by 11 points on the road, by 16 at home, and by 12 on the road, so these games haven't even been close.
Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1996. The Clippers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. Toronto is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 meetings with Los Angeles, including 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings. Bet the Raptors Sunday.
|
01-24-16 |
Providence +13 v. Villanova |
|
82-76 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
15* Providence/Villanova FOX Sunday No-Brainer on Providence +13
This 13-point spread would indicate that there is a big gap between Providence and Villanova, but I'm not buying it. I see a ton of value in backing the Friars as massive road underdogs to the Wildcats today.
Providence (16-3) is one of the better teams in the country. It has been undervalued on the road all season, going 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in all games played away from home. I look for the Friars to travel well again in a crucial Big East game today.
Villanova (17-2) is clearly one of the better teams in the country as well. In fact, the Wildcats might be the best team in the Big East, but Xavier and Providence are close behind. But the Wildcats do get respect from oddsmakers, while the Friars and Musketeers do not.
Providence is 11-2 ATS in road games after playing a home game over the last two seasons. The Friars are 10-2 ATS vs. very good teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last two seasons. The Friars are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games, and 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with Providence Sunday.
|
01-23-16 |
Portland +17 v. St. Mary's |
Top |
74-89 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 56 m |
Show
|
20* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +17
This play is strictly a fade of St. Mary's in an awful spot. The Gaels are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 70-67 home victory over Gonzaga in the come-from-behind variety on Thursday.
Now, the Gaels must get up for a 9-12 Portland team just two days later. I look for the Gaels to come out very flat in this game, and as a result it will be a much closer contest throughout than it otherwise would be.
Portland has gone on the road and hung with some tough teams this season. The Pilots only lost 74-85 as 19-point road underdogs to Gonzaga, so they have already proven they can play with the big boys. They will prove it again here Saturday at St. Mary's.
Portland beat St. Mary's 69-52 in the WCC Tournament last year. Each of the last five meetings have been decided by 17 points or less as well. The Pilots are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning straight up record, including 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above 60%. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take Portland Saturday.
|
01-23-16 |
Hawks v. Suns UNDER 207 |
|
95-98 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 31 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Suns UNDER 207
The books have set the bar way too high in this game tonight between the Atlanta Hawks and Phoenix Suns. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle, which has been the case in recent meetings between these teams as well.
Indeed, the UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 165, 183 and 197 points. That's an average of just 181.7 combined points per game, which is more than 25 points less than tonight's posted total of 207. All three previous totals were set at 200-plus points as well.
Phoenix is having trouble scoring due to all of its injuries. It has scored 97 or fewer points in five of its last six games, including just 90.0 points per game in its last three. The Suns are an absolute mash unit right now, with the key being them missing their two starting guards in Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight. But P.J. Tucker, Mirza Teletovic and Markieff Morris are all questionable to play tonight as well.
Atlanta is 11-1 to the UNDER after two straight games where its opponent was called for 18 or fewer fouls this season. Phoenix is 14-4 UNDER in home games after allowing 110 points or more over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in Hawks last four games overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|
01-23-16 |
Bucks v. Pelicans -5.5 |
|
99-116 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 33 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -5.5
Despite being just 15-27 on the season, the New Orleans Pelicans are just four games back of the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They are doing their best to finish strong prior to the All-Star Break to close the gap.
Indeed, New Orleans is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. It won by 12 at Sacramento, by 2 against Charlotte, by 15 over Minnesota and by 16 over Detroit. Its last four losses have all come by 5 points or less, so it is very close to being 8-0 in its last eight games overall.
Now the Pelicans get to host a tired Milwaukee Bucks team that is coming off a 98-102 loss at Houston last night. Now the Bucks will be playing the second of a back-to-back, while the Pelicans had Friday off following their blowout home win over the Pistons on Thursday. The rest situation clearly favors the Pelicans.
New Orleans has had Milwaukee's number in recent meetings, going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Pelicans are also 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - after 4 or more consecutive overs against opponent after 2 or more consecutive unders are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Pelicans Saturday.
|
01-23-16 |
Maryland v. Michigan State -3.5 |
|
65-74 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 35 m |
Show
|
15* Maryland/Michigan State ESPN No-Brainer on Michigan State -3.5
The Michigan State Spartans will be more motivated for a victory tonight against Maryland than they have been at any other point in the season. I'll gladly put my money on the Spartans when their backs are against the wall under Tom Izzo.
The Spartans have unfathomably lost three straight games coming in. Two were 1-point losses to Wisconsin and Nebraska, but they have actually lost two of the three at home. That is unheard of for an Izzo-coached team, and you can bet he has been on his players. Look for them to respond in a big way tonight.
Maryland has been extremely vulnerable in spite of its 17-2 record. It needed overtime to beat Northwestern at home last time out. It also only won by 3 at Wisconsin and lost by 3 at Michigan. Those three results have all happened in its last four games, where it easily could have gone 1-3 instead of 3-1.
Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MICHIGAN ST) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams who win 80% or more of their games on the season are 74-37 (66.7%) ATS since 1997.
Michigan State is 28-9 ATS in its last 37 games off a close loss by 3 points or less, and 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games off a loss by 6 points or less. This team has responded very well to close losses, and I look for that to be the case again Saturday night on a big stage against the Terrapins. Take Michigan State Saturday.
|
01-23-16 |
Oklahoma State v. Kansas State -6 |
|
73-89 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 0 m |
Show
|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State -6
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are in a massive letdown spot Saturday. They are coming off their biggest win of the season, an 86-67 upset of No. 3 Kansas at home on Tuesday. They won't show up with the same kind of effort against Kansas State that they played with against the Jayhawks.
Kansas State is a much better team than its 1-5 record within the Big 12 would indicate. It has lost to West Virginia by 4, Texas by 3, Oklahoma by 10 and Baylor by 7 with three of those losses coming on the road. The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in Big 12 play and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, so they have been vastly underrated.
Kansas State is 8-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 14.3 points per game. Oklahoma State is 0-3 in true road games this year, getting outscored by 13.0 points per game. That includes road losses at Baylor (by 17) and at West Virginia (by 17) to open Big 12 play.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is a perfect 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings between the Wildcats and Cowboys since 2012. The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Cowboys. The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. The Cowboys are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bet Kansas State Saturday.
|
01-23-16 |
Iowa State v. TCU +10 |
Top |
73-60 |
Loss |
-109 |
6 h 56 m |
Show
|
20* CBB DOG OF THE MONTH on TCU +10
The Iowa State Cyclones are in an awful spot here. They are coming off their first win over a #1 ranked team since 1957 with their 82-77 victory over Oklahoma on Monday. That fact alone sets them up for a letdown here.
But this is also a lookahead spot for the Cyclones, who will face No. 3 Kansas on Monday. They will be overlooking TCU here and looking ahead to that huge showdown with the Jayhawks. As a result, they are going to struggle to win by double-digits, which is what oddsmakers are asking them to do here.
TCU has been competitive in Big 12 play despite its 1-5 record within the conference. It has an 8-point home loss to West Virginia, a 1-point home win over Texas, a 7-point road loss at Kansas, and a 7-point home loss to Texas Tech. So, it has not lost at home in Big 12 play by more than 8 points in three games this season.
Plays against road teams as an favorite or pick (IOWA ST) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%), good rebounding team (+3 to +6 Reb/G) vs. an average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) after 15+ games are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. TCU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss and 4-0 ATS in its last four games following an ATS loss. The Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Bet TCU Saturday.
|
01-23-16 |
Bradley +30 v. Wichita State |
|
54-88 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 56 m |
Show
|
15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Bradley +30
The Bradley Braves are simply catching too many points tonight against the Wichita State Shockers. I'll gladly take advantage and back them as massive 30-point underdogs in this contest.
Bradley could not possibly be more undervalued after its 3-17 start to the season. But this team has been much more competitive in the last couple weeks. It won 54-53 as 14-point road dogs at Loyola-Illinois on January 13, and in its last contest nearly upset Illinois State in a 52-55 loss as 11-point home dogs on January 20.
Wichita State could not be more overvalued than it is right now. It has gone 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall, and the betting public has taken notice. Oddsmakers have been forced to set the Shockers' lines higher than they should be as a result, which is evident by this ridiculous 30-point spread.
Wichita State beat Bradley 85-58 on the road in their first meeting this season, so the Shockers won't even show up tonight having already beaten the Braves by 27. They can not show up and win, but they certainly can't cover this 30-point spread by not showing up with full effort.
Plays against favorites of 20 or more points (WICHITA ST) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 36-10 (78.3%) ATS since 1997. Roll with Bradley Saturday.
|
01-22-16 |
Bulls v. Celtics -3 |
Top |
101-110 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 21 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics -3
The Boston Celtics are showing tremendous value as only 3-point home favorites over the Chicago Bulls tonight. They are going to be highly motivated for a win after back-to-back road losses to Dallas (in OT) and Toronto (by 6). They had won three straight prior to those two close losses.
The Chicago Bulls are not playing well at all right now. They have gone 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, including a 31-point home loss to the Warriors on Wednesday. They needed overtime to beat the 76ers for one of their two wins during this stretch, and they lost to the Hawks by 15 and Wizards by 14 as well.
The Bulls are just 8-9 on the road this season, giving up a whopping 105.2 points per game away from home. Boston is 11-10 at home, outscoring teams by 4.2 points per game and scoring 103.0 points per game at home. The home team has won three of the last four meetings in this series.
Boston is 11-2 ATS after playing three consecutive road games over the last two seasons. The Celtics are 42-23 ATS in their last 65 games off two straight losses by 6 points or less. The Bulls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Chicago is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games. Bet the Celtics Friday.
|
01-22-16 |
Toledo v. Northern Illinois |
|
49-58 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Illinois PK
I have backed Northern Illinois with a lot of success this season, but mostly only when they are at home. This is one of the most improved teams in college basketball at 15-3 this season, and I believe they are the best team in the MAC, but they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers tonight as a pick 'em against Toledo.
Northern Illinois is a perfect 12-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 19.9 points per game. It is 3-0 at home in conference play with wins over Ohio (by 11), Eastern Michigan (by 17) and Central Michigan (by 5), covering the spread in all three games as it was no more than a 3-point favorite in any of them.
Northern Illinois has had Toledo's number in recent meetings, going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings despite being an underdog in all four. That includes a 71-66 win at Toledo on January 12 as 6.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season. There's no way the Huskies should be a pick 'em at home in the rematch. They should be in the neighborhood of 6.5-point favorites themselves.
The Huskies are 18-3 ATS after covering two of their last three against the spread over the last three seasons. NIU is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams who score 77-plus points per game over the last three seasons. The Huskies are 25-8-4 ATS in their last 37 MAC games. Northern Illinois is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Huskies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games. Roll with Northern Illinois Friday.
|
01-22-16 |
Rhode Island v. George Washington -5 |
|
58-62 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 46 m |
Show
|
15* Rhode Island/George Washington A-10 ANNIHILATOR on George Washington -5
The George Washington Colonials are one of the best teams in the Atlantic 10 this season. They are 14-4 on the year and should be much heavier favorites over the Rhode Island Rams (11-7), who are just a middle-of-the-pack team in the conference.
George Washington has one of the best home-court advantages in college basketball. It is 10-0 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring teams by 15.2 points per game. It has beaten the likes of Virginia (by 5), Seton Hall (by 8) and Duquesne (by 27) at home this season. The Colonials are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games overall.
Rhode Island is 1-4 in true road games this season with losses to Nebraska, Old Dominion, St. Joseph's and St. Bonaventure with three of those losses coming by 5 points or more. The Rams' only road victory this season came at Brown (by 3) as 6.5-point favorites, which is far from impressive.
The home team has won three straight in this series. The Colonials have won their last two home meetings with the Rams by 13 and 8 points. Rhode Island is 2-13 ATS in the last 15 meetings. The Rams are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to George Washington. The Colonials are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss. The Rams are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games. These last three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the Colonials. Take George Washington Friday.
|
01-21-16 |
Hawks v. Kings -1 |
|
88-91 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 8 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -1
With an 18-23 record on the season, the Sacramento Kings would actually be the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference if the season were to end today. They have put themselves in this position with some excellent play over the last few weeks.
Indeed, the Kings are 6-3 in their last nine games overall with a 1-point loss to Dallas and another loss to Golden State. They are coming off a 3-0 road trip in which they beat the Jazz, Clippers and Lakers. This is a team that is only going to continue to get better.
While the Kings will be playing the second of a back-to-back after topping the Lakers 112-93 last night, they had three days off prior to that game, so they won't be tired. The same cannot be said for the Hawks, who will also be playing the second of a back-to-back after their 104-98 win in Portland last night. The difference is that the Hawks will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days, while this is just the 2nd game in 5 days for Sacramento.
The Kings are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a win. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the Kings Thursday.
|
01-21-16 |
Pistons v. Pelicans -1.5 |
Top |
99-115 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 31 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans -1.5
Even after their poor 14-27 start to the season, the New Orleans Pelicans are still well within reach of the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference. They are finally playing up to their potential of late and should continue to play well at home tonight against the Detroit Pistons.
The Pelicans have won three of their last four games overall. Their last four losses have all come by 5 points or less, so they have been very close to putting together a 7-game winning streak. They opened their 7-game home stand with a 114-99 beat down of Minnesota, and now they'll be playing their second game on this home stand.
They get to face the Detroit Pistons, who are in an awful spot tonight. Detroit will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a high-scoring affair with the Rockets last night. The Pistons won that game 123-114, but they were fortunate that Dwight Howard had to leave the game with an injury in the first minute of the game.
The Pelicans have owned the Pistons, going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. In fact, the Pelicans are 6-0 SU in their last six home meetings with the Pistons as well. They essentially just have to win the game with this 2-point spread, so I thing we're getting them at a great value tonight give the situation for Detroit. Bet the Pelicans Thursday.
|
01-21-16 |
Hofstra v. Northeastern -3 |
|
96-92 |
Loss |
-106 |
17 h 27 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Northeastern -3
The Northeastern Huskies are one of my favorite small school teams to follow. They have beaten some major Division 1 programs through the years, and they have a strong team again this season with four returning starters and a ton of experience.
Northeastern is off to a 12-7 start this season that includes a 78-77 upset win at highly-ranked Miami as 16-point underdogs, as well as a 66-72 loss at NC State as 6.5-point dogs. Those two results alone show what this team is capable of.
Hofstra is 12-6 this season against a much softer schedule. Common opponents tell the story for me. These teams have faced the same five teams this season. Northeastern is 5-1 against those teams, outscoring them by 8.5 points per game. Hofstra is 3-2 against those five teams, outscoring them by only 4.2 points per game.
Northeastern simply owns Hofstra, going a perfect 8-0 SU since 2011 in the least eight meetings with its last seven victories all coming by 5 points or more. The Huskies are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Pride.
Hofstra is 1-9 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game over the last two seasons. The Huskies are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Bet Northeastern Thursday.
|
01-21-16 |
Kentucky -2 v. Arkansas |
|
80-66 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 56 m |
Show
|
15* Kentucky/Arkansas ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Kentucky -2
The Kentucky Wildcats clearly aren't as strong as they have been in year's past. But we're actually getting them at a great price tonight because of it, and we'll take advantage and back them as only 2-point road favorites over the Arkansas Razorbacks.
The Wildcats are 13-4 on the season. They have bounced back with impressive wins every time they've lost this season, which is important because they are coming off a bad loss at Auburn. Following a loss to UCLA, they beat Eastern Kentucky by 21. Following a loss to Ohio State, they beat Louisville 75-73. And following a loss to LSU, they beat Alabama 77-61 on the road.
Arkansas had to break in five new starters this season and is clearly down from its usual self as well. The Razorbacks are just 9-8 on the season, losing to the likes of Akron, Georgia Tech, Stanford, Wake Forest and Mercer this season. But they are being overvalued here because they have won three of their last four coming in, but those victories were against Missouri, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.
The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss. Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The Wildcats are 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 vs. SEC opponents. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with Kentucky Thursday.
|
01-20-16 |
Nevada v. Wyoming -2 |
|
75-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Wyoming -2
The Wyoming Cowboys are showing excellent value as only 2-point home favorites over the Nevada Wolf Pack tonight in Mountain West action. I look for them to roll to victory at home behind one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.
Wyoming comes in playing its best basketball of the season. It is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. It has won three of of those games straight up with home wins over Air Force (by 12) as 5-point favorites and UNLV (by 2) as 5-point underdogs, as well as an impressive road win at New Mexico (by 2) as 10-point dogs.
The Cowboys are 7-2 at home this season and will be out for revenge from a 68-71 loss at Nevada as 5.5-point dogs on January 2. Nevada is just 2-6 in true road games this season with its only wins coming at Pacific and Air Force. It has lost its last three road games by 29, 12 and 22 points.
Wyoming is 4-0 SU in its last four home meetings with Nevada. The Cowboys are 15-5 ATS revenging a road loss vs. opponent over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 9-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Wolf Pack are 1-8 ATS in their last nine conference games. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take Wyoming Wednesday.
|
01-20-16 |
Heat v. Wizards -4 |
|
87-106 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 11 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -4
The Washington Wizards are starting to get healthy and will be a dangerous team going forward. John Wall, Bradley Beal, Marcin Gortat and Nene are the core of this team, and all four are healthy now. Look for the Wizards to make a run after a frustrating, injury-plagued first half of the season.
The Wizards have won four of their last six coming in, which includes impressive double-digit road victories over the Magic (by 16), Bulls (by 14) and Pacers (by 14). But they are back to being undervalued after two straight home losses to the Celtics and Blazers.
The Miami Heat are playing their worst basketball of the season coming in. They have gone 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall. That includes a 79-91 home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks last night. That means they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days, which is a very tough spot. They are without their top two point guards in Goran Dragic and Beno Udrih, which makes matters worse.
The Wizards are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss. Washington is 14-6 ATS after playing a home game this season. Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss. Bet the Wizards Wednesday.
|
01-20-16 |
76ers v. Magic -7 |
|
96-87 |
Loss |
-108 |
6 h 41 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -7
After getting off to a promising 19-13 start this season, the Orlando Magic have lost seven of their last eight games overall to fall to .500 at 20-20. It's safe to say that they are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight to end this skid.
They will have no problem getting back on track against the league's worst team in the Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers are 5-38 on the season, but they actually come into this game overvalued due to going 4-0 ATS in their last four games. The Magic have gone 2-7 ATS in their last nine games, so they come in undervalued as only 7-point favorites.
The Magic have gone 26-6 in their last 32 meetings with the 76ers, including 13-2 in their last 15 home meetings. Orlando won 105-97 on the road as 3-point favorites in their first and only meeting this season.
Orlando is 8-1 ATS vs. Atlantic Division opponents this season. The Magic are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. The 76ers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Philadelphia is 2-22 on the road this season, getting outscored by 10.5 points per game. Roll with the Magic Wednesday.
|
01-20-16 |
Texas +12 v. West Virginia |
Top |
56-49 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 7 m |
Show
|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas +12
The West Virginia Mountaineers are way overvalued tonight as 12-point favorites over the Texas Longhorns. I look for this game to go right down to the wire with the Longhorns easily staying within this double-digit spread.
What I love about this play is that Texas head coach Shaka Smart knows how to beat the press as he ran it all those years at Virginia Commonwealth. So he'll have his team prepared to beat the WVU press, which has been excellent this season.
Texas comes in playing very well. It is 3-1 in its last four games overall with its only loss coming by a single point. It has beaten the likes of Kansas State, Iowa State and Oklahoma State during this stretch. The Longhorns are 11-6 on the season with their six losses coming by 6, 11, 6, 5, 8 and 1 point. So, they haven't lost a game by more than 11 points all season, making for a 17-0 system backing them.
This is a very tough spot for the Mountaineers. They are coming off back-to-back games against #3 Kansas and #1 Oklahoma, and it's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown following those two huge games against the top two teams int he conference.
Texas is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with West Virginia. The Longhorns are 7-0 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. The Mountaineers are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games off a cover where they lost straight up as an underdog. Bet Texas Wednesday.
|
01-19-16 |
Wolves v. Pelicans -5 |
|
99-114 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Tuesday ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -5
Despite their poor 13-27 start, the New Orleans Pelicans are within striking distance of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They certainly are looking at this upcoming 7-game home stand as a chance to get right back in it.
The Pelicans have played the third-toughest schedule in the NBA up to this point. They have played 23 road games compared to 17 home games. Now that they are healthy, they are playing much betting. Each of their last four losses have come by 5 points or less, and they have won two of their last three coming in.
Now they get to take on a Timberwolves team that is 1-9 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. This is also a Minnesota team that they have dominated, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with wins by 12, 22, 8, 48 and 7 points, respectively. The home team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Minnesota is 1-13 ATS after covering the spread in three of its last four games over the last two seasons. The Timberwolves are 1-9 ATS after playing a game as a favorite this season. The Timberwolves are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. Roll with the Pelicans Tuesday.
|
01-19-16 |
Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois -3 |
|
70-75 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 21 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Illinois -3
The Northern Illinois Huskies are one of the most improved teams in the country this season. They are 14-3 on the season while winning seven of their last eight games overall. Their 7-game winning streak ended with a loss at Western Michigan on Saturday, so they'll be motivated to get back on track tonight.
That shouldn't be a problem against a Central Michigan outfit that continues to get too much respect from oddsmakers. The Chippewas are just 9-8 on the season with losses to the likes of Weber State and Grand Canyon. They have blowout losses to Western Kentucky (by 28), BYU (by 13), Eastern Michigan (by 19) and Buffalo (by 13) to boot.
Northern Illinois is a perfect 11-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 21.3 points per game. Bowling Green is just 1-7 on the road this year, getting outscored by 7.2 points per game. The Falcons are allowing 79.6 points per game on 48% shooting away from home this year. The Huskies are averaging 81.9 points on 47.7% shooting at home.
The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings, which includes two blowout wins by NIU by 18 and 25 points over CMU. CMU's two home wins came by a combined 5 points. The Huskies are 17-3 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Huskies are 24-8-4 ATS in their last 36 conference games. Take Northern Illinois Tuesday.
|
01-19-16 |
Toledo v. Bowling Green +2 |
Top |
81-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 22 m |
Show
|
20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Bowling Green +2
The Bowling Green Falcons are the best team in the MAC in my opinion. They should not be home underdogs to the Toledo Rockets tonight, and we'll gladly take advantage of this tremendous value in a game they should win outright.
The Falcons come in playing their best basketball of the season. They are 5-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They won by 15 at Cleveland State, by 31 at home to Oakland City, by 11 at home to Miami Ohio, by 16 as 10-point road dogs at Ohio, and by 5 as 8.5-point road dogs at Eastern Michigan during this stretch.
The Rockets have opened just 2-2 in conference play with an 18-point road loss at Ball State as 2-point favorites and a 5-point home loss to Northern Illinois as 6.5-point favorites. They are just 3-3 in true road games this season with losses to Loyola-Illinois, Detroit and Ball State. Their only three road wins have come against Youngstown State, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Miami Ohio.
Bowling Green is 28-14 ATS in all games over the last two seasons. The Falcons are 11-2 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog over the last two years. Toledo is 17-32 ATS in its last 49 road games vs. good teams who outscore opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games. Bet Bowling Green Tuesday.
|
01-18-16 |
Oklahoma v. Iowa State -1.5 |
Top |
77-82 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 40 m |
Show
|
20* Oklahoma/Iowa State ESPN Monday ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -1.5
The Iowa State Cyclones will be out for revenge from their 83-87 road loss to Oklahoma in their first meeting of the season back on January 2nd. I look for them to have that revenge behind one of the best home-court advantages in college basketball at Hilton Coliseum tonight.
Getting the Cyclones as only 1.5-point home favorites is a gift from oddsmakers. They are undervalued right now because they already have three losses in Big 12 play. But all have been close as they lost by 4 at Oklahoma, in overtime at Texas, and by 5 at home to Baylor for a very rare home loss.
The Cyclones are 8-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per game. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings. Iowa State is 24-4 ATS in its last 28 home games as a favorite of 3 points or less or a pick 'em. Take Iowa State Monday.
|
01-18-16 |
Warriors v. Cavs -3 |
Top |
132-98 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 40 m |
Show
|
20* Warriors/Cavs TNT Monday No-Brainer on Cleveland -3
The Cleveland Cavaliers will be more motivated for a victory Monday than they have been at any other point this season. That's because they want revenge on the Golden State Warriors, who they not only lost to in the NBA Finals, but also who they lost to on the road on Christmas Day in their first meeting this season.
But the Cavaliers have been a completely different team since they've gotten healthy. They have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the San Antonio Spurs by a final of 99-95. That's not a bad loss at all considering the Spurs are 24-0 at home this season.
The Warriors have been leaking oil here of late and have proven to be very beatable. They have gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. They have lost two of their last three games, both coming on the road to Denver (110-112) and Detroit (95-113). Now they have to take on a well-rested Cavaliers team that has had two days off in between games.
The Cavs are 15-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 9.4 points per game. Cleveland is 8-0 ATS after allowing 80 points or less over the last two seasons. The Cavs are 8-0 ATS after playing four consecutive road games over the last two years. These three trends combine for a 31-1 system backing Cleveland. Bet the Cavaliers Monday.
|
01-17-16 |
Mavs +12 v. Spurs |
|
83-112 |
Loss |
-102 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Dallas +12
The San Antonio Spurs are way overvalued right now due to their perfect 23-0 home record on the season. While they may improve to 24-0, asking them to beat the Mavericks by 12-plus points to cover this spread is asking too much tonight.
The Mavericks have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this year. They are 23-18 SU & 24-17 ATS on the season. Their starters will essentially be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days after resting against the Thunder five days ago, so they will be well-rested and ready to go.
The Mavs have already proven they can hang with the Spurs on the road this season. They only lost 83-88 as 10-point road underdogs in their first and only meeting this year. The Spurs are in a letdown spot here, too, after beating the Cavaliers 99-95 on National TV last time out.
Dallas is 8-1 ATS versus good defensive teams who allow 43% shooting or less this season. Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 48-25 (65.8%) ATS since 1996. The Mavs are 6-0 ATS in their last six Sunday games. The underdog is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings, and the Mavs are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Take the Mavericks Sunday.
|
01-17-16 |
Connecticut v. Houston +1.5 |
|
69-57 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 21 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston +1.5
The Houston Cougars are one of the most improved teams in college basketball this season. They are 13-3 on the year, and they had won five straight prior to a 69-80 road loss at Cincinnati as 10-point dogs last time out. They'll be motivated to get back in the win column today.
I like their chances of doing just that at home against the UConn Huskies. Houston is a perfect 10-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in lined home games this season. It is outscoring opponents by a whopping 20.2 points per game at home this year.
The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings in this series. We've seen Houston pull off the upset at home in each of its last two home meetings with UConn. The Cougars won 70-68 in 2015 as 8.5-point home dogs and 75-71 in 2013 as 8.5-point home dogs. History will repeat itself today.
The Huskies are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss. UConn is 0-5 ATS in its last five conference games. Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games. The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Houston is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons. UConn is 6-0 ATS after having won six or seven of its last eight games coming in over the last two years. Roll with Houston Sunday.
|
01-16-16 |
Celtics -1.5 v. Wizards |
|
119-117 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -1.5
The Boston Celtics are back on track after losing six of seven games during their worst stretch of the season. But all six losses came by 9 points or less, so they simply didn't get it done in close games. They have put together back-to-back blowout wins over Indiana (103-94) and Phoenix (117-103) since.
Yes, the Celtics will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, but this is one of my favorite teams to back on short rest because they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA. They'll be up against a short-handed Wizards team tonight that is also playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.
Boston has absolutely owned Washington in two meetings this season. It won 118-98 back on November 6 and 111-78 on November 27. I look for more of the same from the Celtics here even though they'll be on the road this time.
Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 28-11 (71.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Celtics are 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 games playing on 0 days rest. Boston is 38-18-1 ATS in its last 57 games following a win. The Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. Roll with the Celtics Saturday.
|
01-16-16 |
Nebraska v. Illinois -3 |
Top |
78-67 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 55 m |
Show
|
20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois -3
The Illinois Fighting Illini are way undervalued right now due to their 9-8 start to the season. But they haven't been healthy all year, and they're finally starting to get healthy, so this team is going to be a good bet going forward.
The Illini returned their leading scorer in Kendrick Nunn last time out and showed what they were capable of. They crushed Purdue 84-70 at home as 9.5-point underdogs, covering the spread by 23.5 points. Now I look for them to roll Nebraska at home, too.
Nebraska has been a great home team in recent years, but an awful road team. That has proven to be the case again this season as the Huskers are 1-3 in true road games with blowout losses to Villanova (by 24), Creighton (by 16) and Iowa (by 11). Their only win came at lowly Rutgers.
The home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings since 2012. Illinois is 4-0 SU in its last four home meetings with Nebraska during this stretch with wins by 12, 11, 7 and 5 points.
Nebraska is 2-9 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last two seasons. The Huskers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games after scoring 80-plus points in two consecutive games. Illinois is 9-1 ATS in home games off a home win over the last three seasons. The Illini are 10-1 ATS after scoring 80-plus points over the last two seasons. Bet Illinois Saturday.
|
01-16-16 |
Bowling Green +8.5 v. Eastern Michigan |
|
84-79 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 6 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Bowling Green +8.5
The Bowling Green Falcons are one of the best teams in the MAC this season. There's no way they should be catching 8.5 points on the road to Eastern Michigan, a team I believe they are better than and that will show today.
The Falcons are 11-5 on the season, including 4-1 in their last five games overall. They have beat Cleveland State on the road by 15, Oakland City by 31 at home, Miami Ohio by 11 at home, and Ohio by 16 on the road as 10-point dogs during this stretch.
Eastern Michigan is just 2-2 in its last four games with a 5-point home loss to lowly North Florida and a 17-point road loss to Northern Illinois. The Eagles are simply getting too much respect for their 7-1 home record. They don't have a good home win yet as their seven victories have come against Vermont, Siena Heights, Marygrove, Madonna, Rochester College, Detroit and Buffalo.
Bowling Green is 9-1 ATS vs. poor 3-point shooting teams who make 31% or less of their attempts over the last two seasons. The Falcons are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games. The Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The road team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take Bowling Green Saturday.
|
01-15-16 |
Cavs v. Rockets +1 |
|
91-77 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 7 m |
Show
|
15* Cavs/Rockets ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Houston +1
The Houston Rockets come in playing their best basketball of the season. They are 5-0 in their last five games overall and looking for a 6th straight victory tonight, which they'll be motivated to get. The Rockets have also gone 10-2 in their last 12 home games overall.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are in a very tough spot. They are coming off a hard-fought 95-99 road loss at San Antonio last night, and now they'll be playing their 6th straight road game. This second of a back-to-back situation is very tough, and they'll likely suffer a hangover from that defeat to the Spurs last night.
Houston has simply owned Cleveland in recent meetings. Indeed, it is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in six meetings with the Cavaliers over the last three seasons. The home team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings. The Rockets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home meetings with the Cavaliers.
Cleveland is 1-11 ATS vs. teams who commit 16 or more turnovers per game over the last two seasons. Houston is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. good rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three seasons. The Cavaliers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games playing on 0 days rest. Roll with the Rockets Friday.
|
01-15-16 |
Mavs -1.5 v. Bulls |
|
83-77 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -1.5
This is a great spot to back to the Dallas Mavericks and a terrible one to put your money on the Chicago Bulls. As a result, we'll back the Mavericks in a game that they just need to win to cover with this small 1.5-point spread.
The Mavericks are well-rested and ready to go. They rested their starters in a blowout loss to Oklahoma City on Wednesday, so they've essentially had two days off in between games to get ready for the Bulls.
Chicago will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA. Making matters worse for the Bulls is that they needed overtime to beat the 76ers last night, and 53 points from Jimmy Butler. Butler and company will have nothing left in the tank tonight. The Bulls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 0 days rest.
Plays against home underdogs (CHICAGO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Chicago is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 games following a road win. Dallas is 8-0 ATS after trailing by 15 points or more at the half in its previous game over the last three seasons. Take the Mavericks Friday.
|
01-15-16 |
Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 210 |
Top |
101-108 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hawks/Bucks UNDER 210
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks. This game won't come close to reaching 210 combined points Friday.
These teams are used to playing in low-scoring, defensive battle when they get together. Indeed, the UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 189, 183, 175 and 184 combined points. That's an average of 182.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 27 points less than tonight's posted total of 210.
The UNDER is 20-7 in Hawks last 27 Friday games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|
01-14-16 |
Loyola Marymount v. San Francisco -4 |
|
87-83 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 4 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -4
The San Francisco Dons are playing their best basketball of the season heading into this showdown with Loyola-Marymount. There's no question in my mind that they are by far the superior team, and as a result we are getting them at a great value as only 4-point favorites.
San Francisco is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall. It beat Pacific by 13 at home, Portland by 12 at home, and San Diego by 8 on the road. Its two losses have come against arguably the two best teams in the WCC. But it only lost by 8 at home to Gonzaga as 13.5-point dogs and by 10 on the road to BYU as 17-point dogs, proving that it can play with the two best teams in the conference.
Loyola-Marymount is 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. It has lost by 27 at Portland, by 23 at Gonzaga, by 3 at Pepperdine, by 25 at home to St. Mary's, and by 2 at home to Pacific during this stretch. It's clear that this team isn't anywhere near the level of the Dons by those results.
Common opponents really tell the story here for me. These teams have six games played against common opponents already. San Francisco is 4-2 against those teams with a dead even scoring differential. Loyola-Marymount is 2-4 against those six teams and getting outscored by 12.3 points per game against them.
The Dons are 7-3 at home this season, while the Lions are 2-7 on the road. San Francisco is 14-4 SU in its last 18 home meetings with Loyola-Marymount. The Lions are 1-8 ATS in their last nine conference games. The Dons are 55-23-1 ATS in their last 79 conference games. The Lions are 14-29 ATS in their last 43 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The Dons are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Roll with San Francisco Thursday.
|
01-14-16 |
Oregon v. Utah -4.5 |
|
77-59 |
Loss |
-109 |
19 h 4 m |
Show
|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah -4.5
The Utah Utes will be playing with a sense of urgency tonight. They are 12-4 on the season, but they have opened 1-2 in conference play. That's not the end of the world considering all three of their conference games have been on the road up to this point.
Now the Utes return to their home court where they are 8-0 on the season and outscoring teams by an average of 25.7 points per game. This is a Utah team that has beaten Duke on a neutral court, so we know what it is capable of. The Utes have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country as they are 44-18-2 ATS in their last 62 home games.
Oregon has played well at home, but it has been a different story on the road. Indeed, the Ducks have only played two true road games this season, and they lost both. They lost 72-74 at Boise State as 2-point underdogs and 57-70 at Oregon State as 2-point favorites. This team is getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight given those road results.
Oregon is 4-12 ATS after playing two consecutive home games over the last two years. Utah is a perfect 9-0 ATS in January home games over the last three seasons. The Ducks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. dominant rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 7-plus boards per game. The home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings. These last three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the Utes. Take Utah Thursday.
|
01-14-16 |
Iowa v. Michigan State -6.5 |
Top |
76-59 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 4 m |
Show
|
20* Iowa/Michigan State ESPN GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State -6.5
The Michigan State Spartans (16-1) want revenge on the Iowa Hawkeyes, who handed them their only loss of the season in the Big Ten opener. The Spartans lost that game on the road as 3-point underdogs, so they were expected to lose. I took the Hawkeyes in that game and won, but now I'm jumping ship and backing the Spartans in this revenge spot.
The difference in this game will be the fact that the Spartans will be playing with their best player in Denzel Valentine. He missed the first meeting with an injury, and his presence has been felt since he returned. The Spartans just crushed Penn State 92-65 on the road last time out in his return. He played just 23 minutes and scored 10 points, and after shaking off the rust, look for him to be even more effective in his second game back.
The Hawkeyes are simply overvalued right now due to their 3-0 start within the Big Ten. They did pick up a big win at Purdue, but their other two wins have both come at home against Nebraska and Michigan State sans Valentine. I just don't believe the Hawkeyes are going to be able to match the intensity level of the Spartans in this one, and I look for them to get blown out the building.
Michigan State is a perfect 14-0 SU & 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home meetings with Iowa dating back to 1997. Iowa is 3-12 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 7-plus boards per game over the last three seasons. Michigan State is 35-11 ATS in its last 46 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. The Spartans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. Bet Michigan State Thursday.
|
01-14-16 |
Raptors v. Magic +4 |
|
106-103 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 59 m |
Show
|
15* Raptors/Magic Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Orlando +4
The Orlando Magic are in desperate need of a victory. They have lost five of their last six games overall to fall to 20-18 on the season. This is still one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, and I look for them to lay it all on the line to get a victory today against the Toronto Raptors.
I believe getting away for a few days and visiting London will do the Magic a lot of good here to help them get out of this brief funk. Meanwhile, the Toronto Raptors come in overvalued due to having won three straight games. They won't be as focused as the Magic for this game, and they will enjoy themselves in London because they are playing better coming in.
But the Raptors' three-game winning streak has come against the Nets, Wizards and 76ers, so it's nothing to brag about. Also, the Raptors are still missing a key starter in DeMarre Carroll, who is out indefinitely with a knee injury. The Magic are 1-0 against the Raptors this season with a 92-87 home victory as 6-point dogs in their first and only meeting.
Orlando is an incredible 10-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in. Plays on any team (ORLANDO) - off a home loss against a division rival against opponent off a win against a division rival are 44-16 (73.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win. Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage of .600 or better. Bet the Magic Thursday.
|
01-13-16 |
Boise State -4.5 v. Nevada |
|
74-67 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 39 m |
Show
|
15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Boise State -4.5
I believe the Boise State Broncos are the best team in the Mountain West this season. They have gotten off to a 12-4 start and are well on their way to winning the conference title. Head coach Leon Rice continues to do a tremendous job with this program.
The Broncos are a perfect 9-0 in their last nine games overall with road wins at Portland (81-71) and at Utah State (76-61). They have also beaten Oregon, Colorado State and Fresno State at home during this stretch to highlight some of their victories.
Nevada (10-6) is no better than a middle-of-the-pack team in the Mountain West. The Wolf Pack have really struggled of late against the best teams that they've played. They've lost three of their last five games coming in with a 69-98 blowout to Wichita State, a 76-88 blowout to New Mexico, and a 63-85 blowout to Fresno State. Their only wins have come against Wyoming (by 3) and Air Force.
Boise State crushed Nevada 78-46 in their only meeting last season. The Broncos are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after scoring 80 points or more. Boise State is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 vs. Mountain West foes. The Wlf Pack are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games. Nevada is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games and 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win. Roll with Boise State Wednesday.
|
01-13-16 |
Pacers v. Celtics -2 |
Top |
94-103 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 38 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2
The Boston Celtics are desperate for a win tonight. They have lost four straight and six of thier last seven games overall with all six losses coming by single-digits. So, they aren't playing poorly, they are simply coming up short in close games.
Both teams will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight. But I believe that favors the Celtics, who are one of the deepest teams in the NBA and are built for these situations. Plus, this will only be the 3rd game in 6 days for the Celtics, while this will be the 4th game in 6 days for the Pacers.
The home team has won five of the last seven meetings between these teams. The Pacers are just 9-11 on the road this season, clearly playing their best basketball at home, where they are 13-5. This will be the Celtics' first home game following a 3-game road trip, so they'll be glad to be back in front of their home fans in Boston.
Boston is 9-1 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent as a home favorite over the last two seasons. The Celtics are 41-23 ATS in their last 64 games off two straight losses by 6 points or less. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on 0 days rest. The Celtics are 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 games playing on 0 days rest. Bet the Celtics Wednesday.
|
01-13-16 |
Houston +10 v. Cincinnati |
|
59-70 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 39 m |
Show
|
15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston +10
The Houston Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country this season. Head coach Kelvin Sampson welcomed back four starters this year, and it has led to a 13-2 season up to this point.
The Cougars have really upped their place in AAC play. They are 3-0 within the conference with a 73-67 win at South Florida, a 77-50 win at Temple as 6-point dogs, and a 63-45 home win over Tulane. This team is simply rolling right now, yet they are getting no respect from oddsmakers.
Cincinnati is 12-5 on the season. This team hasn't shown me enough to warrant being 10-point favorites over this solid Houston outfit in what I believe to be a very evenly-matched game. The Bearcats have lost three of their last five games, including home losses to both Iowa State and Temple. They also barely beat South Florida 54-51 on the road last time out as 15.5-point favorites.
Cincinnati is just 1-8 ATS when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last three seasons. The Bearcats are 1-8 ATS vs. good defensive teams who allow 42% or less shooting this season. The Cougars are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Houston is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. AAC opponents. The Bearcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Take Houston Wednesday.
|
01-12-16 |
Texas Tech v. Kansas State -3.5 |
Top |
70-83 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State -3.5
We are getting the Kansas State Wildcats at a tremendous price today as only 3.5-point home favorites over the Texas Tech Red Raiders. We'll take advantage and back the Wildcats, who are highly motivated for their first Big 12 victory of the season after three close calls.
Indeed, the Wildcats are 0-3 within the conference with a 4-point home loss to WVU, a 3-point road loss at Texas, and a 10-point road loss at Oklahoma as 12.5-point dogs. But the Wildcats are 7-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.3 points per game. They have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.
The Red Raiders are getting a lot of love because they played both Iowa State and Kansas reasonably tough in their last two games. But after an easy schedule to start the season, their true colors are starting to show, and they clearly aren't as good as their 11-3 record would indicate. That will show again here tonight.
Kansas State has owned Texas Tech, going 10-1 SU in the last 11 meetings with all 10 victories coming by 4 points or more. The Wildcats are 6-0 in their last six home meetings with the Red Raiders with all six wins coming by 7 points or more. K-State is 7-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% or less shooting this season. The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS vs. teams with winning records this season. The Red Raiders are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games. The home team is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings. Roll with Kansas State Tuesday.
|
01-12-16 |
Spurs v. Pistons +7 |
|
109-99 |
Loss |
-102 |
7 h 8 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +7
The San Antonio Spurs will be playing the second of a back-to-back after their win in Brooklyn last night. They are at a disadvantage here in the rest department against the Pistons, who will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. The Pistons have had two days off in between games since last beating the Nets on Saturday.
The Pistons come into this game playing their best basketball of the season. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating Orlando by 26 at home, Brooklyn by 14 at home, and Boston by 5 on the road. Yet they are getting no respect from oddsmakers here as 7-point home underdogs.
The San Antonio Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now. They have gone 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall to make the betting public a ton of money. The public is going to continue to back them, and oddsmakers know this, which forces them to shade the line in the Spurs' favor. That creates artificial line value for us to pounce on the Pistons here.
Detroit is 12-9 SU & 13-8 ATS in its last 21 home meetings with San Antonio. It has won two of its last three home meetings with San Antonio outright as underdogs. The Pistons are 13-4 ATS in all home games this season, outscoring opponents by 8.1 points per game at home. Detroit is 7-0 ATS in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or fewer fouls per game this season. The Pistons are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 home games dating back to last year. Take the Pistons Tuesday.
|
01-12-16 |
Celtics -103 v. Knicks |
Top |
114-120 |
Loss |
-103 |
7 h 56 m |
Show
|
25* NBA Atlantic Division GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics Money Line -103
The Boston Celtics will be more motivated for a victory tonight than they have been at any other point in the season. They have last three straight and five of their last six coming in, including a blown 20-point lead in a 98-101 loss at Memphis on Sunday. They are clearly going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight.
The New York Knicks are playing very well, winners of four of their last five coming in. But this team is starting to become overvalued, and this recent run has them content with how they are playing at the moment. They aren't going to want this win as much as the Celtics, and as a result won't be able to match their intensity level.
The Celtics have owned the Knicks, going 4-0 SU in the last four meetings with wins by 9, 4, 21 and 11 points. The road team has actually won four of the last six meetings, too, so home-court advantage has meant very little when these Atlantic Division rivals have gotten together.
Boston is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after having lost 5 or 6 of its last 7 games coming in. The Celtics are 13-1 ATS int heir last 14 road games after allowing 100 points or more in two consecutive games coming in. Boston is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 road games after playing two consecutive road games coming in. Bet the Celtics Tuesday.
|
01-12-16 |
Bowling Green +10.5 v. Ohio |
|
91-75 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 35 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Bowling Green +10.5
The Bowling Green Falcons are simply catching too many points tonight against the Ohio Bobcats. I'll gladly back them as double-digit underdogs in a game that they can win outright. We'll just take the points for some added insurance.
The reason this line is so high is because Bowling Green (10-5) is coming off one of its worst performances of the season in a 67-79 home loss to Central Michigan. The Falcons had won three straight games by double-digits prior to that defeat, so they aren't broken after one bad game.
Ohio (10-4) hasn't shown me anything to warrant being a double-digit favorite here. It has a 5-point home win over Jackson State, a 7-point home win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, an 11-point loss at Northern Illinois, and a 6-point home win over Ball State in four of its last five games coming in.
The Falcons owned the Bobcats in both meetings last season, winning 76-65 as 4-point road favorites and 69-54 as 7.5-point home favorites. There's no way they should be double-digit dogs a year later in their first meeting of 2015.
The Falcons are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games. Bowling Green is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bobcats are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 MAC games. The Bobcats are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The Falcons are 6-0 ATS after playing two consecutive home games over the last two seasons. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take Bowling Green Tuesday.
|
01-12-16 |
Miami (Fla) v. Virginia -5 |
|
58-66 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 53 m |
Show
|
15* Miami/Virginia ACC No-Brainer on Virginia -5
The Virginia Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight when they host the Miami Hurricanes. The Cavaliers have lost back-to-back road games at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, and now they'll be looking to avoid their first 3-game skid in nearly five years. I like their chances to get back on track at home tonight.
Virginia has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country. It is 12-0 in its last 12 home games, including 7-0 this season. It is outscoring opponents by an average of 16.4 points per game at home this year.
There's no question that Miami is a quality team with its 13-1 record, but there's also no denying that it has benefited from an easy schedule. In fact, the Hurricanes have only played on true road game all season. That resulted in a lackluster 77-72 win at Nebraska, and the Cornhuskers are one of the worst teams in the Big Ten this season.
Virginia clearly matches up well with Miami. It won 89-80 on the road as 6.5-point favorites last year, and 65-40 at home as 10.5-point favorites in 2014. The Cavaliers are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 home games off an upset loss as a favorite. Virginia is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds. The Cavaliers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss. Bet Virginia Tuesday.
|
01-11-16 |
Heat +13.5 v. Warriors |
|
103-111 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 47 m |
Show
|
15* Heat/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami +13.5
The Golden State Warriors come into this game overvalued for a number of reasons. They own the best record in the league at 35-2, and the betting public has made a killing off of them as they've gone 23-13 ATS. They are coming off a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS road trip against Western Conference bottom feeders in the Lakers, Blazers and Kings as well.
The Miami Heat are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference at 22-15 on the season. They have won four of their last six coming in while going 4-2 ATS in the process. They are certainly capable of staying within this massive 13.5-point spread, which I believe to be too much tonight.
The Heat are coming off a poor performance in an 83-98 loss at Utah on Saturday, and that result has them undervalued as well. I would be shocked if it wasn't due to them looking ahead to this game against the Warriors. Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic and company are all relishing the opportunity to go at the defending champs tonight and will bring max effort as a result.
Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - after a blowout loss by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS since 1996. Roll with the Heat Monday.
|
01-11-16 |
Wizards v. Bulls UNDER 207.5 |
|
114-100 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 17 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Bulls UNDER 207.5
A lot is being made of the Bulls scoring at least 100 points in 10 consecutive games. As a result, their totals are going to be inflated in the near future, including tonight against the Wizards. I believe the value is now with the UNDER 207.5 tonight.
The Wizards haven't exactly been offensive juggernauts here of late with all of the injuries they are dealing with, including the one to star SG Bradley Beal, who remains out. The Wizards have scored 91 or fewer points in four of their last seven games. But they have been playing good defense, limiting eight of their last 10 opponents to 99 or fewer points.
The recent history between these teams justifies this play on the UNDER 207.5. They have combined for 204 or fewer points in 25 consecutive meetings! That's a perfect 25-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set. They have averaged 183.7 combined points per game in their last six meetings, which is 24 points less than this total. Enough said. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.
|
01-10-16 |
Cavs v. 76ers OVER 203.5 |
|
95-85 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 22 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/76ers OVER 203.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers have become the offensive juggernaut that most thought they'd be when having Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love and Lebron James healthy at the same time. They have simply been rolling since Irving returned from injury a few games back.
Indeed, the Cavaliers have scored 104, 122, 121 and 125 points in their last four games, respectively. That's an average of 118.0 points per game. I expect them to flirt with that average again today against the lowly Philadelphia 76ers.
The 76ers have been trying to play at a faster tempo this season, especially since hiring Mike D'Antoni. They rank 5th in pace at 99.8 possessions per game this season. The results have been better on offense, but their defense has been atrocious as they've allowed 104-plus points in 11 of their last 14 games overall. They have given up 108, 126 and 130 points in three of their last four.
The OVER is 11-3 in Cavaliers last 14 games when playing on one days' rest. The OVER is 12-4 in 76ers 16 home games this season. The OVER is 8-0 in 76ers last eight games following a loss by more than 10 points. The OVER is 9-1-1 in 76ers last 11 games following a loss overall. The OVER is 20-7 in 76ers last 27 vs. Eastern Conference foes. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|
01-10-16 |
Celtics -2 v. Grizzlies |
Top |
98-101 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 21 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2
The Boston Celtics are primed for a big performance today. They have lost two straight and four of their last five coming in, so they're motivated for a victory. Plus, they have had two days off in between games having last played on Thursday, so they are well-rested and ready to go.
The Celtics are now at full strength as PG Avery Bradley is expected to return from a hip injury. The same cannot be said for the Memphis Grizzlies, who are expected to be without their starting backcourt in PG Mike Conley and SG Courtney Lee.
Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 94-54 (63.5%) ATS since 1996.
Boston is 12-2 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of its last 6 games over the last two seasons. The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games overall. The Grizzlies are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Bet the Celtics Sunday.
|
01-10-16 |
Valparaiso v. Detroit +7.5 |
|
92-74 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Detroit +7.5
The Detroit Titans have been awful on the road, but they've been a juggernaut at home this season. They've gone a perfect 9-0 at home, outscoring teams by an average of 15.2 points per game. I love the proposition of getting them as nice-sized home underdogs here to Valpo.
Detroit is certainly one of the best offensive teams in the country. It is scoring 85.4 points per game overall, including 91.3 points per game on 49.6% shooting at home. This team is going to be able to score on Valpo today.
All three of Valpo's losses this season have come on the road. They lost 85-81 at Belmont, 67-73 at Oregon and 69-66 at Ball State, and they only beat Oregon State by 6 and Indiana State by 6 on the road, so they are vulnerable away from home. We saw that last year as well as Detroit beat Valpo 63-60 at home as 4.5-point dogs.
Detroit is 8-0 ATS in home games off a home win over the last two seasons. The Titans are 7-0 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three years. Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game. The underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. These four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Titans. Roll with Detroit Sunday.
|
01-09-16 |
San Francisco +18 v. BYU |
Top |
92-102 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 34 m |
Show
|
25* WCC GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco +18
This is my favorite play in the WCC for the entire 2015-16 season. This is a massive lookahead spot for BYU, which faces Gonzaga in its next game. It will just be going through the motions to try and beat San Francisco today and not giving the kind of effort it's going to take to put away the Dones by 18-plus points.
San Francisco comes in playing its best basketball of the season. It is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall with a 13-point win over Pacific, a 12-point win over Portland, and an 8-point road win at San Diego. Its only loss came at home to Gonzaga by 8 points as 13.5-point dogs, so it has already proven it can play with the best team in this conference.
One thing that really stood out to me was how tough San Francisco has played BYU on the road in recent years. The Dons are 3-0 ATS in their last three trips to BYU. They lost by 4 as 13-point road dogs last year, lost by 5 as 11.5-point dogs two years ago, and won by 12 outright as 14.5-point dogs three years ago. The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.
The Dons are 98-58 ATS in their last 156 conference road games. The Dons are 54-23-1 ATS in their last 78 WCC games overall. San Francisco is 35-16-1 ATS in its last 52 road games. The Cougars are 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Bet San Francisco Saturday.
|
01-09-16 |
Wizards v. Magic -2 |
|
105-99 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 40 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2
I successfully backed the Orlando Magic in an 83-77 win at Brooklyn last night as 4-point favorites, and I'm backing them again tonight for many of the same reasons. This team is motivated following a 4-game losing streak, and they are undervalued due to that streak as well.
Adding to the Magic's motivation tonight is the fact that they are 0-3 against Washington in three meetings this season. They lost by 12 and 9 on the road, and by just 1 at home. They will be hungry to avoid the season sweep, and I like their chances of getting a victory here with the way the Wizards are playing right now.
Indeed, Washington is 1-5 in its last six games overall. That includes a 19-point home loss to the Clippers and a 22-point home loss to the Heat. The Wizards are still playing without star SG Bradley Beal, which is the biggest reason for their struggles. Their injury list remains long, and they aren't playing up to their potential as a result. They lost 97-88 at home to the Raptors last night, so they are playing the second of a back-to-back as well, which hurts them more because they are short-handed, while the Magic are a deep team.
The Wizards are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on 0 days' rest, while the Magic are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 0 days' rest. The Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Orlando is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS win. The home team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Roll with the Magic Saturday.
|
01-09-16 |
Florida State +8.5 v. Miami (Fla) |
|
59-72 |
Loss |
-115 |
15 h 28 m |
Show
|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State +8.5
The Miami Hurricanes are way overvalued right now due to their 12-1 start to the season. They have covered five of their last six against the spread, so the betting public is all over them. But they have certainly benefited from playing an easy schedule here of late as their last six opponents have been Charlotte, Florida, College of Charleston, LaSalle, Princeton and Syracuse with none of those being true road games. It's simply time to fade the Hurricanes.
The Florida State Seminoles come in highly motivated for a victory in this rivalry game. They have opened 0-2 in ACC play with a 75-84 loss at Clemson and a 90-106 home loss to North Carolina in a game that was close until the final 10 minutes. They will be playing with a little extra edge here today to try and get their first ACC victory. This is still a quality team at 10-4 and one that will be a force in the ACC the rest of the way.
But what really stands out to me is the closely-contested nature of this series. Indeed, each of the last three meetings have been decided by 4 points or less. The Seminoles haven't lost to the Hurricanes by more than 6 points in any of the last five meetings. So given the close nature of this series, getting 8.5 points is a ton of value. Plus, the Seminoles are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.
Florida State is 10-1 ATS off a home loss over the last three seasons, including a perfect 9-0 ATS off a home loss to a conference opponent. Miami is 0-8 ATS in home games after scoring 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last three seasons. The Seminoles are 7-0 ATS when the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last three seasons. FSU is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a double-digit home loss. These five trends combine for a 40-1 system backing the Seminoles. Take Florida State Saturday.
|
01-09-16 |
Kansas State +13 v. Oklahoma |
|
76-86 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 58 m |
Show
|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +13
The Oklahoma Sooners are in a massive hangover spot Saturday. They are coming off a triple-overtime loss at Kansas on Monday, and it's going to be hard for them to come back and give the kind of effort they played with in that game to try and pull off the upset, only to come up short.
Kansas State is one of the most underrated teams in the country. Bruce Weber has this team playing some great basketball this year. The Wildcats are 10-4 with all four of their losses coming by 10 points or less to some very good teams. They lost by 10 to North Carolina on a neutral court, by 10 to Texas A&M on the road, by 4 at home to West Virginia, and by 3 at Texas.
But what really stands out is that Kansas State has had Oklahoma's number in recent years. Indeed, the Wildcats are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Sooners despite being underdogs in three of those. Thy won both meetings last year with a 66-63 road win as 12-point dogs, and a 59-56 home win as 3.5-point dogs.
The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% or less shooting this season. K-State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team that wins more than 80% of its games. The Wildcats are 14-5 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. K-State is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall. The Sooners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big 12 opponents. Roll with Kansas State Saturday.
|
01-09-16 |
Vanderbilt +4 v. South Carolina |
|
65-69 |
Push |
0 |
15 h 37 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Vanderbilt +4
The Vanderbilt Commodores are highly motivated for a victory Saturday when they travel to face the unbeaten South Carolina Gamecocks. The Commodores have opened 0-2 in SEC play with an 8-point home loss to LSU and an overtime road loss to Arkansas. They want to right the ship in a hurry.
I like their chances to get in the win column in SEC play Saturday because I still believe this is one of the best teams in the conference. But they have lost a lot of close games here of late as five of their six losses have come by 8 points or less.
A big reason has been because they've been without one of their best players in Luke Kornet (9.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.6 bpg) for five games. But Kornet returned against Arkansas last game and had 11 points and 8 rebounds. His presence will be huge against South Carolina, and going forward.
South Carolina is certainly a feel-good story up to this point with its 14-0 start, but it has come against an extremely soft schedule. The Gamecocks have only had to play two true road games this season and they haven't faced a ranked opponent all year. They will be exposed for what they are, which is just a middle-of-the-pack SEC team, against the best team they've faced in Vanderbilt.
Vanderbilt is 44-26 ATS in its last 70 games following a loss by 6 points or less. The Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss. Vanderbilt is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games. The Commodores are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS loss. Roll with Vanderbilt Saturday.
|
01-09-16 |
Central Michigan v. Bowling Green -1 |
|
79-67 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 29 m |
Show
|
15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bowling Green -1
The Bowling Green Falcons are arguably the best team in the MAC this season. They are off to a 10-4 start this year, which includes a 6-1 home record. They are outscoring opponents by 12.6 points per game at home this year.
Central Michigan is just 7-7 and has had some very suspect performances this season. It has losses to Weber State (by 3), Western Kentucky (by 28), Grand Canyon (by 3) and Eastern Michigan (by 19). It also has ugly home wins over McNeese State (by 1) and Texas Southern (by 8).
But the most important stat going against the Chippewas is the fact that they are 0-6 in all road games this season. Their defense has been horrible away from home as they are giving up 82.7 points per game and 48.7% shooting to opponents. They just gave up 66% shooting in their 99-80 home loss to Eastern Michigan on Wednesday, so defense clearly is not a priority for them. The Falcons have only allowed 55.0 points per game during their 3-game winning streak coming in.
Bowling Green is 6-0 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three seasons. The Falcons are 26-13 ATS in their alst 29 games overall. The Chippewas are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games, and 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Take Bowling Green Saturday.
|
01-09-16 |
LSU v. Florida -3.5 |
Top |
62-68 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 31 m |
Show
|
20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida -3.5
This is a massive letdown spot for the LSU Tigers. They are coming off a huge 85-67 home win on National TV against #9 Kentucky on Tuesday. There's no question they have been getting patted on the back over the last few days leading up to this game, and it will go to their heads, and they will not show up with the same intensity against Florida Saturday.
At the same time, this is a great spot to back the Gators. They are coming off a bad 69-83 road loss at Tennessee on Wednesday, so they'll be highly motivated to get back in the win column when they return home, where they were last seen crushing Georgia 77-63 as 8-point favorites to open SEC play.
The Gators are 6-1 at home this season, outscoring teams by 21.5 points per game. The Tigers are 1-4 in all road games this season, giving up 84.2 points per game away from home. Florida has won four of its last five home meetings with LSU with all four victories coming by 12 points or more.
The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. The Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a straight up loss. Johnny Jones is 4-12 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more as the coach of LSU. Take Florida Saturday.
|
01-09-16 |
Texas A&M v. Tennessee +5 |
|
92-88 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 29 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee +5
The Tennessee Vols are a much better team than their 8-6 record would indicate. Their six losses have all come on the road to Georgia Tech (by 2), George Washington (by 3), Nebraska (by 11), Butler (by 8), Gonzaga (by 7) and Auburn (by 6).
So, they've shown that they can play with the likes of George Washington, Butler and Gonzaga, which says all that you need to know about this team. The Vols really showed what they were capable of when they beat Florida 83-69 at home on Wednesday. They improved to 8-0 at home this season with that huge victory.
Texas A&M is overrated due to playing a home-heavy schedule. It has played just two true road games this season. One was a 54-67 upset loss at Arizona State as 3.5-point favorites, and the other was a narrow 61-60 road win at Mississippi State as 7-point favorites Wednesday night. The Aggies shouldn't be favored on the road against the Vols today based off those two performances, especially considering the Vols haven't lost at home this year.
One of my favorite trends that I always look for with Tennessee is that it is 32-9 ATS in its last 41 games as a home underdog or pick 'em. Better yet, the Vols are 27-6 ATS in their last 33 games as a home underdog of 6 points or less, and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Bet Tennessee Saturday.
|
01-08-16 |
Knicks +14 v. Spurs |
|
99-100 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 54 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +14
The San Antonio Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now. They have gone a league-best 26-11 ATS in all games this season, and their 21-0 SU & 16-5 ATS home mark has the betting public all over them. The Spurs have covered 12 of their last 14 games ATS as well.
The New York Knicks continue getting no respect from oddsmakers tonight despite playing their best basketball of the season coming in. They've gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They are 2-2 straight up in their last four meetings with the Spurs, not once losing by more than 14 points.
Their recent run includes a 12-point home win over Detroit as 1.5-point dogs, a 14-point home win over Atlanta as 4.5-point dogs, a 6-point road win over Atlanta as 7.5-point dogs, and an 8-point road win at Miami as 7.5-point dogs. This team is playing with a ton of confidence right now and feeling like it can compete with San Antonio.
New York is 17-8 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent this season. The Knicks are 8-1 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) - good defensive team - allowing 91 or fewer points/game on the season, after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game are 36-14 (72%) ATS since 1996. The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with the Knicks Friday.
|
01-08-16 |
Cavs v. Wolves OVER 196 |
|
125-99 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 24 m |
Show
|
15* Cavs/T'Wolves ESPN Friday No-Brainer on OVER 196
With Kyrie Irving back in the lineup, the Cleveland Cavaliers have become the explosive offensive team that we all thought they'd be. They have scored 104, 122 and 121 points in their last three games overall for an average of 115.7 points per game.
Look for the Cavs to put up another big number against the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight to mostly take care of this OVER by themselves. The T'Wolves have allowed 101 or more points in 13 of their last 18 games overall.
The last three meetings between the Cavs and T'Wolves have all seen at least 196 combined points. They have combined for 196, 229 and 219 points in their last three meetings, respectively. That's an average of 214.7 points per game, which is roughly 19 points more than this 196-point total.
Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (98-102 PPG), after scoring 80 points or less are 36-11 (76.6%) since 1996. Take the OVER in this game Friday.
|
01-08-16 |
Magic -4.5 v. Nets |
Top |
83-77 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 54 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -4.5
The Orlando Magic are extremely motivated for a win tonight. They have lost four straight coming in with three of those coming on the road. Look for them to give max effort to try and end this skid, and for it to be enough to beat the lowly Brooklyn Nets.
The Nets are in a world of hurt right now. They have gone just 3-10 in their last 13 games overall, and the injuries are starting to pile up. They just lost starting PG Jarrett Jack to a season-ending ACL injury. They have proceeded to get blown out 94-103 by Boston and 74-91 to Toronto, both at home, in their two games without him.
The Magic have owned the Nets in two meetings this season. They won 105-82 on the road and 100-93 at home. The Magic have been a solid road team this season as they've gone 10-6-1 ATS in their 17 road games.
Orlando is 9-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of its last 7 games against the spread over the last two seasons. The Magic are 31-17 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog over the last two years. The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. The Nets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. Bet the Magic Friday.
|
01-07-16 |
Illinois +13.5 v. Michigan State |
|
54-79 |
Loss |
-112 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois +13.5
The Michigan State Spartans have looked pedestrian without their best player in Denzel Valentine, who will miss this game as well. They needed overtime to beat Oakland on a neutral court, lost by 13 at Iowa, and had a hard-fought 69-61 win over a sub-.500 Minnesota team in their last three games without him.
Illinois has proven that it is not intimidated by facing the Spartans at the Breslin Center. In fact, the Fighting Illini have won each of their last two trips to Michigan State. They won 59-54 as 9.5-point road underdogs last season, and 53-46 as 12.5-point road dogs in 2014.
Illinois had won five straight games before opening 0-2 in Big Ten play. But they lost by 10 to Michigan and by 2 at Ohio State, so they have been competitive to open conference play. Now the Fighting Illini will be extra motivated to get that first Big Ten victory. While they may not get it, it's certainly reasonable to think that they'll stay within 13 points of the Spartans tonight.
The Fighting Illini are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games coming in. Illinois is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents. The Fighting Illini are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six trips to Michigan State. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with Illinois Thursday.
|
01-07-16 |
Celtics +6.5 v. Bulls |
Top |
92-101 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 56 m |
Show
|
20* Celtics/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Boston +6.5
The Boston Celtics are highly motivated for a victory after losing three of their last four games coming in. They were outscored in the fourth quarter by 14 points by the Pistons last night to lost 94-99, and now they'll certainly come back playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight.
The Chicago Bulls come into this game overvalued because they have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, four of which have come at home. It's now time to fade them as they are simply laying too many points to the Celtics tonight.
Boston has been better on the road than it has been at home. It is 10-6 SU & 11-5 ATS in road games this season, outscoring teams 103.1 to 99.1 on average. In fact, the Celtics are 7-2 SU in their last nine road games with their only losses coming to the Piston (by 3) and Spurs (by 3). So they haven't lost by more than 3 points in any of their last nine road games.
The Celtics are 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last two seasons. Boston is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage of .600 or better. The Celtics are 37-14-1 ATS in their last 52 games playing on 0 days rest. Boston is 39-19 ATS in its last 58 road games. The Bulls are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win. Bet the Celtics Thursday.
|
01-07-16 |
Troy State +11.5 v. Georgia State |
|
68-72 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 47 m |
Show
|
15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Troy State +11.5
The Georgia State Panthers made some noise in the NCAA Tournament last year due to the heroics of RJ Hunter, who is now gone. They are now overvalued after that recognition as they only brought back one starter from that team.
Georgia State has gotten off to an 8-3 start this season, but it has been far from impressive. Its best wins have come at home against Old Dominion (by 4) and Middle Tennessee (by 2). This team is simply laying too many points here tonight.
Troy is only 5-8, but I have been impressed with how well this team has played on the road this season. It is 1-2 in true road games with a 12-point win over North Texas, a 9-point loss at Seton Hall as 15.5-point underdogs, and a 3-point loss at Ole Miss as 3-point dogs. To compare, Georgia State lost by 9 at Ole Miss as 6.5-point dogs earlier this year. Seven of the Trojans' eight losses this season have come by 9 points or less.
The Trojans have played the Panthers very tough on the road in recent meetings. They lost 72-77 as 19.5-point rod dogs last year and 72-81 as 16-point dogs in 2014. The Trojans are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Trojans are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 road games. The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Troy is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games off two consecutive home losses. Take Troy Thursday.
|
01-06-16 |
San Jose State +20 v. San Diego State |
|
62-77 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 13 m |
Show
|
15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State +20
San Jose State was one of the worst teams in college basketball last year. But this is now one of the most improved teams in the land in 2015-16. The Spartans are 5-9 and fully capable of staying within 20 points of the San Diego State Aztecs, who haven't been as good as in year's past.
All nine of San Jose State's losses this season have come by 20 points or fewer. That includes a 7-point loss at Air Force as 9-point road dogs and an 18-point loss at Marquette as 21.5-point dogs. Considering the Spartans have played 14 games this season and haven't lost by more than 20 once, that's a 14-0 system backing them based on this 20-point spread.
San Diego State likely won't be going to the NCAA Tournament this season. It is just 9-6 on the year with some ugly losses and wins this year. It lost to West Virginia by 22 on a neutral court, and it was also upset at home by both Arkansas-Little Rock (by 6) as 16.5-point favorites and Grand Canyon (by 7) in a game that didn't even have a line.
SDSU is 5-15 ATS when playing its 2nd game in a week over the last two seasons. The Aztecs are 1-8 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons. Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (SAN DIEGO ST) - a good team (+3.5 to +8 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG differential), after 3 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet San Jose State Wednesday.
|
01-06-16 |
Texas A&M v. Mississippi State +7 |
|
61-60 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +7
Mississippi State is a team that I've had my eye on all season. This is a squad that returned four starters from last year under the guidance of first-year head coach Ben Howland, who took UCLA to three straight Final Fours back in his prime.
As I expected, the Bulldogs have been undervalued all season as they've gone 7-2 ATS in their nine lined games. They've been an especially profitable bet at home by going 5-1 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season. They are coming off three straight blowout wins over Tulane (by 10), Northern Colorado (by 24) and NC Central (by 23) and are chomping at the bit to play their first SEC game in front of their home crowd tonight.
Texas A&M is a highly ranked team this season and it is overvalued as a result of its 11-2 start. While the Aggies have played some tough teams, they have actually only played one true road game all season. That ended in a 54-67 upset loss at Arizona State as 3.5-point favorites.
Mississippi State is 7-0 ATS as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points since 1997. Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS in road games when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons. The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last three years. These three trends combine for a 22-0 system backing the Bulldogs. Roll with Mississippi State Wednesday.
|
01-06-16 |
Nuggets v. Wolves OVER 202 |
|
78-74 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 53 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Timberwolves OVER 202
This is a battle between two bad teams in the Denver Nuggets (12-23) and Minnesota Timberwolves (12-23) with identical awful records. Look for defense to be optional tonight as this game sails way OVER this 202-point total set.
That's usually the case when these teams get together, anyways. The first two meetings this season have seen 212 and 219 combined points, respectively. Dating back further, 9 of the last 11 meetings between these teams have seen 205 or more combined points. The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Minnesota.
The Nuggets have been playing in a ton of high-scoring games here of late. The OVER is 3-0 in their last three games with combined scores of 213, 219 and 218 points. Now they are expected to get rookie PG Emmanuel Mudiay back in the lineup tonight and will be even more potent on the offensive end.
Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MINNESOTA) - cold team - having lost 15 or more of their last 20 games against opponent cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games are 39-17 (69.6%) over the last five seasons. The OVER is 5-0 in Nuggets last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The OVER is 4-1 in Timberwolves last five vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|
01-06-16 |
Massachusetts +14.5 v. Dayton |
|
63-93 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 13 m |
Show
|
15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on UMass +14.5
The Dayton Flyers are way overvalued here as 14.5-point home favorites over the UMass Minutemen. The Flyers have won four in a row coming in, but they have been far from impressive in doing so.
Three of the four wins have come at home over Furman (by 20), Miami Ohio (by 1) and Arkansas (by 4), with the lone road win coming at Duquesne (by 7). Don't forget that the Flyers lost to UT-Chattanooga (by 2) at home as 12.5-point favorites in their game prior to this 4-game winning streak.
UMass is starting to play better with wins in three of its last four games overall. This is a team that puts up 79.2 points per game against teams that only give up 72.6 points per game, so it is a very good offensive unit. UMass has actually won two of its last three meetings with Dayton with all three decided by 10 points or less.
Dayton is 0-6 ATS off a game where it made 20% or fewer of its 3-point shots over the last three seasons. The Flyers are 8-17 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two years. Dayton is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. The Flyers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. Take UMass Wednesday.
|
01-06-16 |
Eastern Michigan v. Central Michigan -2.5 |
Top |
99-80 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 3 m |
Show
|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan -2.5
This is a very generous price to get the Central Michigan Chippewas at Wednesday as they host the Eastern Michigan Eagles. This is a CMU team that is undervalued right now because it hasn't lived up to expectations after returning all five starters from last season.
While the Chippewas have struggled on the road this year, they've been untouchable at home. In fact, the they are a perfect 7-0 at home this season, outscoring teams by 15.7 points per game. Now they take on an EMU team that is just 2-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in road games this season.
With all five starters back for Central Michigan, it's important to note that it crushed Eastern Michigan in both meetings last season. Indeed, it won 65-51 at home and 72-56 on the road, winning by an average of 15.0 points per game. Another blowout victory in the Chippewas' favor can be expected in their first meeting of 2016.
Eastern Michigan is 28-46 ATS in its last 74 games as a road dog of 6 points or less. The Eagles are 18-35 ATS in their last 53 vs. good offensive teams who score 77-plus points per game. EMU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Wednesday games. The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. Bet Central Michigan Wednesday.
|
01-05-16 |
Knicks v. Hawks UNDER 203 |
Top |
107-101 |
Loss |
-108 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Eastern Conference Total ANNIHILATOR on Knicks/Hawks UNDER 203
The New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks are very familiar with one another to say the least. In fact, this will be the 2nd time in 3 days that they square off, and their 4th and final meeting of the season. This familiarity will lead to a low-scoring game tonight as both teams know each other's tendencies by now.
The Knicks prefer to play at a slow pace as they rank 23rd in pace at 96.5 possessions per game. The Knicks also rank just 22nd in offensive efficiency at 100.9 points per 100 possessions. The Hawks are 10th in defensive efficiency, giving up 101.2 points per 100 possessions.
Atlanta is 12-3 to the UNDER in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last two seasons. Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 50-22 (69.4%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|
01-05-16 |
Clemson v. Syracuse -5 |
|
74-73 |
Loss |
-106 |
7 h 17 m |
Show
|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse -5
The Syracuse Orange will be highly motivated for their first ACC win of the season tonight when they host the Clemson Tigers. I look for them to get it in blowout fashion as they return home after a brutal 2-game road trip to open conference play.
Indeed, the Orange have already had to travel to face Pitt and Miami to open conference play. They were competitive in both games before eventually losing by 11 and 13 points, respectively. But now they return home where they are 7-1 this season, outscoring teams by 13.7 points per game.
The Clemson Tigers are 8-6 on the season and shouldn't be getting this much respect from oddsmakers. That's especially the case considering they are 0-3 in true road games this year with losses to Minnesota (by 6), Georgia (by 23) and North Carolina (by 11).
Clemson is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games off an upset win as a home underdog against a conference opponent. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in Tuesday night road games over the last three seasons. The Tigers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Roll with Syracuse Tuesday.
|
01-05-16 |
VCU v. St. Joe's -2 |
|
85-82 |
Loss |
-109 |
6 h 17 m |
Show
|
15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Joe's -2
The St. Joe's Hawks are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season. They have gotten off to an 11-2 start with their only two losses coming against Villanova and Florida.
The Hawks have gone on the road and beaten Temple, Richmond and Old Dominion this season. They have gone an impressive 8-4 ATS in all games this year, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six lined games. They are once again undervalued as only 2-point home favorites tonight.
The VCU Rams used to be a force under Shaka Smart before he bolted for Texas in the offseason. Now, the Rams are only 9-5 in their first season without him. They are really short on quality wins this year as their nine wins have come against Prairie View A&M, Radford, American, Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee, Buffalo, Liberty, North Florida and George Mason.
St. Joe's is 6-0 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 7 days this season. The Hawks are 10-1 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or more of their shots over the last three seasons. The Hawks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. St. Joe's is 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with VCU. These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the Hawks. Take St. Joe's Tuesday.
|
01-04-16 |
Hornets v. Warriors UNDER 208 |
Top |
101-111 |
Loss |
-111 |
9 h 47 m |
Show
|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Warriors UNDER 208
The books have set the bar too high with this total set tonight between the Charlotte Hornets and Golden State Warriors. The injuries for both of these teams are really piling up now, which will help contribute to the UNDER.
Nicolas Batum, Jeremy Lin, and Spencer Hawes are all questionable for the Hornets, while Al Jefferson remains out. Harrison Barnes and Brandon Rush are both banged up but expected to play for the Warriors. Stephen Curry is questionable, while Festus Ezeli, Leandro Barbosa and James Michael McAdoo are all expected to miss tonight.
These are two solid defensive teams as the Warriors rank 4th in defensive efficiency, while the Hornets rank 11th. Three of the last four meetings in this series have seen 207 or fewer combined points. We're seeing an average of 196.8 combined points per game in those four meetings, which is 11 points less than this posted total of 208.
Charlotte is 19-8 UNDER vs. teams who score 103 or more points per game over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 15-4-2 in Hornets last 21 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 17-6 in Hornets last 23 Monday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|
01-04-16 |
Pacers +2.5 v. Heat |
|
100-103 |
Loss |
-103 |
6 h 7 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +2.5
I will gladly fade the Miami Heat in this tough spot tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days. They were in Washington last night, and now they have to return home to Miami tonight.
The Pacers are the better team here and should not be underdogs given the rest situation with them having yesterday off. They have lost five of their last eight games overall, but three of those losses came by 4 points or less.
Indiana clearly matches up well with Miami. It is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with the Heat with its only loss coming by exactly 2 points. The Heat are 3-16 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons.
Indiana is 7-0 ATS against teams who win 60% to 70% of their games this season. The Heat are 1-8 ATS versus teams who force 16 or more turnovers per game this year. The Pacers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The Heat are 13-36-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win. Take the Pacers Monday.
|
01-04-16 |
North Carolina v. Florida State +3.5 |
|
106-90 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 13 m |
Show
|
15* UNC/FSU ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Florida State +3
I believe the oddsmakers have the wrong team favored here tonight in this game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and Florida State Seminoles. I'll gladly back the home underdog Seminoles, who are one of the most underrated teams in the country.
Florida State's three losses this season have all come by single-digits and all on the road, including an overtime loss at Iowa. This is a team that won 73-71 at Florida as 5-point dogs in its ACC opener. The Seminoles are 5-0 at home this season, winning by 23.6 points per game.
North Carolina is more vulnerable than most expected it would be coming into the season. The Tar Heels are 0-2 in true road games this season with losses at Northern Iowa and at Texas, which are two teams that aren't as good as Florida State. They weren't impressive in their two ACC home games this season with an 11-point win over Clemson as 15.5-point favorites and an 8-point win over GA Tech as 14.5-point favorites, either.
The Tar Heels are 0-9 ATS after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last three seasons. The Seminoles are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after being called for 5-plus more fouls than their opponents in two straight games. Roll with Florida State Monday.
|
01-03-16 |
Hawks v. Knicks UNDER 202.5 |
|
97-111 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 58 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Knicks UNDER 202.5
I'm backing the UNDER in this game between the New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks today. I like UNDERS in early Sunday NBA games, and this one really stands out as having some value with a total set of over 200 points.
For starters, the Knicks will be controlling the tempo as they are playing at home, and they prefer a slow pace. Indeed, the Knicks rank 23rd in the NBA in pace at 96.4 possessions per game. The Knicks also struggle on the offensive end as they rank 24th in offensive efficiency.
New York is 18-8 UNDER when the total is 200 or more over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 8-3 in Knicks last 11 Sunday games. The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in New York. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|
01-02-16 |
Bucks v. Wolves -1.5 |
|
95-85 |
Loss |
-108 |
9 h 3 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -1.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves are showing solid value today as small favorites over the Milwaukee Bucks. They are undervalued because they have lost five of their last six games coming in.
But they have also played a very tough stretch of games having played San Antonio twice, Indiana, Boston on the road and Detroit on the road. They did beat the Jazz at home 94-80 two games back, and the schedule lightens up tonight.
The Milwaukee Bucks simply are not very good this season. They are 13-21 on the year, and they have been awful on the road. They are just 4-15 in road games this season, getting outscored by 10.7 points per game. They should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers as a result.
Milwaukee is 16-42 ATS in its last 58 games off an upset win as an underdog against a division opponent. The Bucks are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with the Timberwolves Saturday.
|
01-02-16 |
Iowa State +8 v. Oklahoma |
|
83-87 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 57 m |
Show
|
15* Iowa State/Oklahoma Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +8
The Oklahoma Sooners are overvalued right now due to their 11-0 start to the season. But their only significant win came against Villanova on a neutral court, otherwise they've played a very soft schedule outside of that game.
The Iowa State Cyclones suffered a bad loss to Northern Iowa. But everything that could go wrong, did, as the Cyclones allowed 58% shooting as Northern Iowa simply could not miss from 3-point range. But that loss has grounded this team, and they came back with a huge 81-79 upset win at Cincinnati as 5-point dogs their next time out.
Iowa State has won four of its last six meetings with Oklahoma with only one of its two losses coming by more than this 8-point margin. The Cyclones are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. Iowa State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five road games. The Sooners are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. Big 12 opponents. Roll with Iowa State Saturday.
|
01-02-16 |
Iowa +9 v. Purdue |
|
70-63 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 30 m |
Show
|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa +9
The betting public thinks that Iowa is going to have a letdown following its win over #1 Michigan State. That would be the case if the Spartans were at full strength, but the Hawks were favored because Sparty didn't have their best player in Denzel Valentine. The Hawks will show up in their first true Big Ten road game.
Iowa has lost three games this season, but all three came by 6 points or less on the road to quality opponents. The Hawks lost to Dayton by 5, Notre Dame by 6, and Iowa State by 1. They should have never lost to Iowa State as they blew a 20-point second half lead.
This has been a very closely-contested series in recent meetings, which is why there is a lot of value here with the Hawkeyes catching 9 points. Each of the last seven meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, including six by 7 points or less. The Hawkeyes haven't lost by more than 7 to the Boilermakers in any of those seven meetings.
Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PURDUE) - bad pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers are 98-50 ATS over the last five seasons. The Hawkeyes are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Big Ten opponents. Take Iowa Saturday.
|
01-02-16 |
Syracuse +11 v. Miami (Fla) |
|
51-64 |
Loss |
-103 |
3 h 18 m |
Show
|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +11
The Syracuse Orange are showing great value today as double-digit road underdogs to the Miami Hurricanes. This is simply too many points today folks.
The Miami Hurricanes are having a great season as they're off to an 11-1 start. They have taken advantage of a pretty easy schedule, though they do have a few good wins over Utah, Butler and Florida. But they also lost to Northeastern 77-78 at home, so they are vulnerable.
The Orange check in off an 11-point loss at Pittsburgh, so they don't want to start ACC play 0-2. I believe that 11-point loss is the reason they are getting 11 points here from Miami, but it's just too much as Pitt is a better team than Miami.
The road team has won each of the last two meetings between these teams. The road team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings. Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams who win between 60% and 80% of their games. The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS in January home games over the last three seasons. Bet Syracuse Saturday.
|
12-31-15 |
Clippers v. Pelicans -3 |
Top |
95-89 |
Loss |
-105 |
15 h 52 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans -3
This is an awful spot for the Los Angeles Clippers. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th road game in 7 days and are running on fumes right now. They won't have anything left to give tonight against the Pelicans.
That's especially the case since they're already short-handed without arguably their best player in Blake Griffin. They won 122-117 in Charlotte last night in a fast-paced game. On tired legs tonight, I look for Chris Paul, J.J. Redick and company to really struggle tonight on the offensive end, and to have little effort left to give on defensive.
The Pelicans have been playing better since head coach Alvin Gentry called out his players for their last of effort. They have won three of their last five games since that occurred with one of their losses coming on the road at Miami in overtime.
The Pelicans have won four of their last five home games, including an upset win over the Cleveland Cavaliers. They have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the league. And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Clippers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 visits to New Orleans. Roll with the Pelicans Thursday.
|
12-31-15 |
Providence +7.5 v. Butler |
|
81-73 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 18 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Providence +7.5
The Providence Friars are one of the best-kept secrets in college basketball. They have gotten off to a 12-1 start this season behind three absolute studs in Ben Bentil (18.8 ppg, 8.0 rpg), Kris Dunn (16.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 7.3 apg) and Rodney Bullock (13.6 ppg, 7.5 rpg).
The only loss the Friars have suffered this year came against #1 Michigan State by 13 on a neutral court. But they have beaten both Evansville (by 10) and Arizona (by 4) on a neutral court, as well as Rhode Island (by 2) and UMass (by 24) in its two true road games this season. I really like what I've seen from the Friars and believe that they will give Butler a run for its money today.
Butler is also a solid team at 11-1 this season, but it should not be favored by 7.5 points here. It comes in overvalued due to three straight ATS wins. Tennessee only lost by 8 at Butler, which was the toughest opponent that the Bulldogs have faced at home this year. They struggled to beat Temple (by 5) and lost to Miami (by 10) on a neutral court this year.
I really believe that home-court advantage means nothing in this series when you look at recent results. The road team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings. Providence won 66-62 at Butler as 6-point dogs last season and 87-81 as 1.5-point dogs two years ago. The Friars have actually won three of the last four meetings with their only loss coming by 4 points.
The Friars are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. Providence is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Friars are 10-2 ATS off two straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons. Take Providence Thursday.
|
12-31-15 |
Xavier +4.5 v. Villanova |
|
64-95 |
Loss |
-108 |
7 h 38 m |
Show
|
15* Xavier/Villanova Big East Early ANNIHILATOR on Xavier +4.5
The Xavier Musketeers just don't get the respect they deserve. This team is arguably the best in the entire country, yet they don't get a lot of national attention. They are out to prove that their run to the Elite 8 last year was no fluke like many believed it was. So far, so good as far as proving it.
The Musketeers have gone 12-0 SU & 9-3 ATS in their 12 games this season, including a perfect 8-0 ATS run over their last eight games. They've gone on the road and beaten Michigan (by 16) and Wake Forest (by 8). They've also crushed Alabama (by 19), USC (by 10) and Dayton (by 29) on a neutral court. And they've beaten Cincinnati (by 10) at home. Those results show that they are the real deal.
Villanova is solid again this year at 10-2. But it has lost to the two best teams it played, and it was thoroughly outplayed in both contests. The Wildcats lost to Oklahoma (by 23) on a neutral court and to Virginia (by 11) on the road. They really don't have a quality win yet as their best victories came over Georgia Tech and Stanford on a neutral court.
Xavier wants revenge on Villanova after losing all three meetings with the Wildcats last year, and five straight in this series overall. I believe they will be playing with extra motivation because of it. The Musketeers will also be the fresher team. They last played on December 22 against Wake Forest. Meanwhile, the Wildcats last played on December 28 against Pennsylvania, having just two days to prepare for the Musketeers. That's a huge scheduling advantage for Xavier here.
The Musketeers are 43-21-1 ATS in their last 65 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Xavier is 11-1 ATS vs. teams who shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse over the last three seasons. Again, the Musketeers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. They should not be underdogs here. Bet Xavier Thursday.
|
12-30-15 |
76ers +10 v. Kings |
|
110-105 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 33 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +10
The Philadelphia 76ers have been much more competitive here of late, and I look for that to continue as they give the Sacramento Kings a run for their money tonight and stay within single-digits.
The 76ers have covered their last two against the spread. They won outright at Phoenix 111-104 as 11.5-point underdogs, and then came back with a 91-95 loss at Utah as 8-point dogs. The 76ers are finally getting healthy as Jahlil Okafor is expected to play tonight. They don't have anyone else listed on the injury report aside from Joel Embid, who is out for the season with a foot injury.
The Kings shouldn't be this heavily favored against anyone. They have lost three of their last four with their only win coming by two points. They could be without DeMarcus Cousins tonight as he faced a possible suspension. That would only be an added bonus. They are already without Willie Cauley-Stein and could be without Kosta Koufos as well.
The 76ers played the Kings very tough last year, winning 114-107 at home as 4.5-point dogs, and only losing 106-107 on the road as 8.5-point dogs. Philadelphia is now 13-3 ATS in its last 16 meetings with Sacramento, including a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven road meetings.
Sacramento is 12-23 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons. Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win. The 76ers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents. The Kings are 11-29-2 ATS in their last 42 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Take the 76ers Wednesday.
|
12-30-15 |
Jazz v. Wolves -2 |
|
80-94 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 48 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -2
I'll gladly fade the Utah Jazz, who are dealing with a plethora of injuries right now. They are without two starters in Alec Burks and Rudy Gobert. They could also be without a 3rd starter tonight in Derrick Favors, who missed their lackluster 95-91 home win over the 76ers last time out.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are hungry for a win tonight after losing four straight coming in. But those four losses came to the Celtics, Pacers and Spurs (twice), and they even hung with the Spurs in a 95-101 road loss as 13.5-point dogs last time out. Look for the Timberwolves to get back in the win column tonight now that they take a step down in competition.
The Jazz are 5-9 on the road this season and should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers given the state of their team health-wise. The Timberwolves are basically at full strength heading into this one, which will be a huge advantage. They should dominate in the paint with Gobert and possibly Favors out for the Jazz. Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.
|
12-30-15 |
Bradley +20.5 v. Northern Iowa |
|
44-80 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 33 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Bradley +20.5
The Bradley Braves are way undervalued here as 20.5-point road underdogs to the Northern Iowa Panthers in their Missouri Valley opener. I'll gladly grab all the points I can get with the Braves here as there's little chance they lose by 21-plus points.
Bradley is just 2-11 this season while playing a brutal schedule that has featured games against Arizona, Virginia, Seton Hall, Ole Miss, UT-Arlington, Boise State and TCU. Yet, the Braves have only lost by more than 20 points four times this season.
The Panthers are probably still feeling the after-effects of a 3-game trip to Hawaii over Christmas and cannot be fully prepared for this game. They played three games against Hawaii, Washington State and BYU and lost two of the three with their only win coming by 4 points. UNI only has two wins by more than 20 points this season. Roll with Bradley Wednesday.
|
12-29-15 |
Michigan State v. Iowa -3 |
|
70-83 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 18 m |
Show
|
15* Michigan State/Iowa Big Ten Opener on Iowa -3
The oddsmakers know something here by having the Iowa Hawkeyes favored over the No. 1 team in the country in the Michigan State Spartans. They expect the Hawkeyes to win, and are trying to get some money on the Spartans by making the Hawks favored. That shouldn't be a problem considering the betting public loves ranked teams.
Indeed, roughly 67% of the bets as of this writing are coming in on Michigan State, yet the line has moved from Iowa -2 to Iowa -3. So this reverse line movement shows us that the big money is on the Hawkeyes, and I totally agree that it should be given the situation.
Michigan State is playing without its best player in Denzel Valentine. The Spartans secured their best start (13-0) in franchise history last time out, but it wasn't easy without him. They needed overtime to escape with a 99-93 win over Oakland, and a 7-for-9 from 3-point range shooting effort out of Bryn Forbes. They aren't going to get that again from him.
Iowa has really impressed me this season. It blew out both Marquette (89-61) and Wichita State (84-61) on the road, while also beating a very good Florida State (78-75) team at home. Its three losses have all come by 6 points or less on the road to Dayton (77-82), Notre Dame (62-68) and Iowa State (82-83). It should have beaten Iowa State as it blew a 20-point lead in that game on the road at Hilton Coliseum, which is one of the toughest places to play in the country. The Cyclones are currently the #11 ranked team in the land.
The Hawkeyes will be extremely motivated to end a 9-game losing streak to the Spartans. They blew an 11-point halftime lead at home to Michigan State last year, and these players have not forgotten. Look for them to be playing with some extra motivation here as a result, and for the home crowd to be a big influence as the No. 1 team in the country visits Iowa City tonight.
Tom Izzo is just 10-19 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less as the coach of Michigan State. Fran McCaffery is 36-22 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Iowa. The Hawkeyes are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Big Ten opponents. Roll with Iowa Tuesday.
|
12-29-15 |
Pistons v. Knicks UNDER 200 |
|
96-108 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 26 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Knicks UNDER 200
The books have set the bar way too high in this contest between the Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks. There are several reasons to love the UNDER in this one, not the least of which is the fact that this is the second-highest total set in the last 14 meetings between these teams. They are used to playing low-scoring games when they get together.
Indeed, 9 of the last 10 meetings between the Knicks and Pistons have seen 193 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation. Only once did they reach 200 points, and that was a 202-point effort in the final meeting last year when neither team had anything to play for in mid-April. They have combined for an average of just 182.3 points per game at the end of regulation in their last 10 meetings, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 200.
Both teams prefer to play at a slow tempo as the Knicks rank 23rd in pace at 96.7 possessions per game while the Pistons are 18th (98.0). Both teams also struggle offensively as the Knicks rank 24th in offensive efficiency while the Pistons are 23rd. The Pistons are 10th in defensive efficiency while the Knicks are 16th.
The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. The UNDER is 16-4 in Pistons last 20 road games after playing two consecutive games as an underdog. The UNDER is 4-0 in Knicks last four games following an ATS loss. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|
12-28-15 |
Raptors v. Bulls -1.5 |
|
97-104 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 1 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5
The Chicago Bulls are showing excellent value as small home favorites against the Toronto Raptors tonight. We'll gladly take advantage and back the Bulls as they pretty much just have to win this game to cover the spread.
The Bulls are a solid 11-5 at home this season. But they come in undervalued due to having lost four of their last five games, including two by exactly 3 points. But they did beat the Thunder 105-96 on the road on Christmas Day to show their potential, and I believe they'll live up to their potential tonight as they'll be motivated to turn this recent poor run around.
What you have to like about this game is that Chicago has owned Toronto. The Bulls are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Raptors. The last two have resulted in double-digit wins in favor of the Bulls with a 13-point road win and a 16-point home win.
Toronto is 5-17 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons. The Raptors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win. Bet the Bulls Monday.
|
12-28-15 |
Valparaiso v. Belmont +3.5 |
|
81-85 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 26 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Belmont +3.5
This one is pretty simple folks. The Belmont Bruins are going to be out for revenge after losing 57-61 at Valparaiso on December 3 earlier this month. After that 4-point road loss, I like them to win this rematch outright at home this time around because they'll be the more motivated team.
Belmont has played a brutal schedule this year, which is why it is only 7-6 and better than its record would indicate. The Bruins' six losses have come against ASU (by 9), Evansville (by 5), BYU, Valpo (by 4), Middle Tennessee and Cleveland State (by 2). All six of those losses came on the road.
The Bruins are 3-0 at home this season, outscoring teams by 15.7 points per game. Valpo is 4-2 on the road with narrow wins over Rhode Island (by 3), Oregon State (by 6) and Indiana State (by 6). It has also lost at Oregon and at Ball State in two of its other three road games, and its only road blowout came at Chicago State.
Plays on a home team (BELMONT) - off two or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite, with four starters returning from last season are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS since 1997. The Bruins will have their revenge tonight. Roll with Belmont Monday.
|
12-28-15 |
Pelicans +4.5 v. Magic |
|
89-104 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 29 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +4.5
The New Orleans Pelicans have started to turn their season around now that they are finally healthy. They have won three of their last four games overall with home wins over the Blazers (by 26) and Rockets, as well as a road win at Denver.
The only loss by the Pelicans during this 4-game stretch came at Miami by a final of 88-94 in overtime. So, they have either won or forced overtime in each of their last four games. I think we're getting some good value with them at +4.5 here against Eastern Conference foe, Orlando.
The Magic come into this game overvalued due to sinning five of their last seven games overall. But their two losses came against the two best teams they played in Atlanta and Miami, both at home. Their five wins came against the Nets, Hornets, Blazers, Knicks and Rockets.
Orlando is 9-20 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. New Orleans is 34-17 ATS in its last 51 road games after a game where both teams scored 105 or more points. The Pelicans are 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 trips to Orlando. The underdog is 20-6-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings. Take the Pelicans Monday.
|
12-28-15 |
Hawks v. Pacers -2 |
Top |
87-93 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 29 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana Pacers -2
The Atlanta Hawks come into this game way overvalued because they have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. But those six wins came against the 76ers, Celtics, Magic, Blazers, Pistons and Knicks. Now they take a step up in competition tonight.
At the same time, the Pacers come in undervalued due to going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. They lost on the road to Memphis and San Antonio, while also falling at home to Sacramento by 2. They bounced back with a 102-88 win at Minnesota on Saturday, though.
The Pacers are 10-4 at home this season. They are outscoring teams by 6.6 points per game at home this year. The Hawks are 8-6 on the road, but they're getting outscored by 0.7 points per game away from home.
Indiana is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games after having lost 3 of its last 4 games coming in. The Pacers are 10-1 ATS against teams who average 48 or fewer rebounds per game over the last two seasons. The Pacers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Indiana is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 vs. Eastern Conference foes. Roll with the Pacers Monday.
|
12-27-15 |
Knicks v. Celtics UNDER 201.5 |
|
91-100 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 10 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Knicks/Celtics UNDER 201.5
The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics. I look for a defensive battle between these two teams as neither gets to 100 points in this one, paving the way for an easy UNDER winner.
The biggest reason for the Celtics' turnaround this season has been defense. They rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 97.6 points per 100 possessions. The Knicks are improved in this area as well as they rank 16th in defensive efficiency.
The Knicks are improved on offense this season, but only marginally as they still rank a woeful 22nd in offensive efficiency at 100.6 points per 100 possessions. The Celtics have only been slightly better, ranking 21st at 101.0 points per 100 possessions. The Knicks rank 23rd in pace at 96.7 possessions per game, so this one should be played at a slow pace.
I also think that it will be played at a slow pace for the simple fact that both teams played on Saturday, so they are both going to be tired playing this second of a back-to-back. I think that hurts the offense more than the defense, which has proven to be the case over time. Neither team is going to be looking to fast break with regularity.
New York is 30-15 UNDER versus teams who score 103 or more points per game over the last three seasons. Boston is 21-9 UNDER after covering three of its last four games against the spread over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 11-4 in Knicks last 15 games following a straight up loss. The UNDER is 7-3 in Knicks last 10 Sunday games. The UNDER is 4-1 in Celtics last five Sunday games. The UNDER is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings, including 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Boston. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|
12-26-15 |
Rockets v. Pelicans -1 |
|
108-110 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 7 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -1
Both the Rockets and Pelicans played on Christmas Day. The difference is that the Pelicans have had more time to recover since they played the 12:00 EST game, while the Rockets played the second-to-last game last night. The Pelicans will be the more rested team as a result.
I also believe the Pelicans will be the more motivated team. They let one get away from them yesterday, losing in overtime to the Heat. The Rockets are in a massive letdown spot here after beating the Spurs at home. The Pelicans will want this one more because they are the ones coming off a loss.
The Pelicans haave played the Rockets tough in recent meetings in winning three of the last six. All three of their losses came by 7 points or less with two of them coming on the road. The Pelicans lost 101-108 at Houston in their first meeting this season in early December, so they'll be out for revenge as well.
The Pelicans are 6-6 at home this year while the Rockets are just 6-8 on the road. Houston is 4-12 ATS off a home game this season. New Orleans is 25-14 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons. The Rockets are 7-15-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to New Orleans. Take the Pelicans Saturday.
|
12-25-15 |
Cavs +7 v. Warriors |
Top |
83-89 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 42 m |
Show
|
25* NBA Pre-New Year's GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +7
The Cleveland Cavaliers want serious revenge on the Golden State Warriors. They led the NBA Finals 2-1 last year, only to lose three straight and to fall short of a championship. The only difference this time around is that the Cavaliers are healthy, which is a huge difference.
Back in 2011, Lebron James and the Miami Heat played the Dallas Mavericks on Christmas. Coming off a Finals loss to Dirk Nowitzki & Co. Miami routed Dallas, leading by 32 points after three quarters. I fully expect the Cavaliers to want this game more and to likely come away with an outright victory.
The Cavs come in playing their best basketball of the season. They have won six straight games with three coming by double-digits, including both of their road wins over Boston (89-77) and Orlando (111-76) during this stretch. Kyrie Irving returned to the lineup two games ago and should be up to game speed now in time for face the Warriors.
Remember, the Cavs didn't have Irving or Kevin Love against the Warriors in the NBA Finals, which are two of their three best players. While James and company are downplaying the significance of this game to the media coming in, there's no question that deep down inside they want to kill the Warriors. That will show on the court Friday. Bet the Cavaliers Friday.
|
12-25-15 |
Bulls v. Thunder UNDER 205.5 |
Top |
105-96 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 42 m |
Show
|
20* Bulls/Thunder Christmas Day No-Brainer on UNDER 205.5
This Christmas Day matchup between the Chicago Bulls and Oklahoma City Thunder features two of the best defensive teams in the NBA. The Bulls rank 3rd in defensive efficiency, giving up 97.8 points per 100 possessions. The Thunder rank 6th, giving up 98.8 points per 100 possessions.
The Bulls will be playing with extra determination in this game because they are coming off three straight losses and really need a win. The last time they lost three straight this season, they came back with an 83-80 home win over the Clippers in a low-scoring, defensive battle that saw 163 combined points.
The Bulls have struggled to find easy baskets this season under Fred Hoiberg as they rank just 27th in offensive efficiency at 98.4 points per 100 possessions. Things won't get any easier for them on that end against a Thunder team that has allowed 99 or fewer points in 10 of their last 11 games overall. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook get all the hype, but it's OKC's effort on the defensive end that makes them so good.
The UNDER in Christmas Day games is 27-13-1 (67.5%) since 2005. While I do like some other UNDERS, this is my favorite of the bunch. The UNDER is 15-4-2 in Bulls last 21 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. The UNDER is 10-1 in Bulls last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents. The UNDER is 7-0 in Thunder's last seven home games. The UNDER is 9-0 in OKC's last nine when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 8-1 in OKC's last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents. These last four trends combine for a 34-2 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|
12-25-15 |
Pelicans +6 v. Heat |
|
88-94 |
Push |
0 |
23 h 32 m |
Show
|
15* Pelicans/Heat XMas Day Early ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +6
I've backed the Pelicans with success in each of their last two games and I'll continue riding them on Christmas Day as 6-point underdogs to the Miami Heat. Head coach Alvin Gentry called out his players for their lack of effort three games ago in a loss to the Suns, and they've responded very well.
Indeed, the Pelicans went on the road in their first game after the loss to the Suns and beat the Nuggets 130-125 as 1-point underdogs. In their second game since Gentry called out his players, the Pelicans rolled to a 115-89 home win over the Blazers as 7.5-point favorites. Now I fully expect them to win this game outright against the Heat.
The Pelicans have had the Heat's number in recent meetings. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with home wins by 10 and 2 points, and a blowout 14-point road win. I believe Anthony Davis' domination of Hassan Whiteside inside will be the difference in this game. Davis is a tough matchup for Whiteside because he can hit 3-pointers, so Whiteside is forced away from the rim, making it much easier for other players to get uncontested layups.
The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games vs. teams with winning records. The Heat are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents. The Pelicans are 13-5-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings overall. Roll with the Pelicans Friday.
|
12-23-15 |
Oklahoma -6.5 v. Hawaii |
|
84-81 |
Loss |
-106 |
9 h 10 m |
Show
|
5* Oklahoma/Hawaii ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma -6.5
This is a very generous price to get one of the best teams in the country tonight in the Oklahoma Sooners. This team legitimately has a chance to win the Big 12 this season with four returning starters from last year. Lon Kruger is on record as saying this is the hardest-working team he's ever coached.
The Sooners haven't disappointed in the early going. They're off to a 9-0 start while winning their last eight games by an average of 26.1 points, including a 78-55 victory over then-No. 9 Villanova in Hawaii on December 7. The Sooners opened their second trip to Honolulu with Tuesday's easy 88-60 victory over Washington State in the first round of the eight-team tournament.
That blowout victory allowed the Sooners to rest their starters down the stretch, so they'll be fresh tonight. Buddy Hield had two straight 30-point performances before scoring an efficient 25 points in just 26 minutes yesterday. They played the early game in Honolulu last night, while Hawaii played the late game that didn't tip until 12 AM EST. Now the Rainbow Warriors will have to get ready for a 9 PM EST tip tonight.
Oklahoma is scoring 87.8 points against teams that give up 72.7, and it is giving up 63.9 points against teams that average 75.1. That is roughly a plus-26 mark based off what its opponents average. Hawaii puts up 80.2 points against teams that allow 75.9, and it allows 67.4 against teams that average 72.8. That's a plus-10 mark for the Warriors.
That means Oklahoma should be favored by 16 points on a neutral court over Hawaii, and roughly 12 points in a true road game. But the Sooners have played a lot tougher schedule, so their plus-26 mark is much more impressive than Hawaii's plus-10 mark. This line should be in the 12-to-15-point range instead of 7.5.
The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. The Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The Warriors are getting too much respect for their win over Northern Iowa last night. That was a UNI team that wasn't used to playing that late at night, and also one that was in a huge letdown spot off its win over Iowa State just three days earlier. Take Oklahoma Wednesday.
|