|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-12-21||Mavs v. Spurs +2.5||Top||123-109||Loss||-103||13 h 32 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on San Antonio Spurs +2.5
The San Antonio Spurs are playing up to their potential of late in going 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. And I love the spot for them tonight playing with double-revenge against the Dallas Mavericks after losing each of the first two meetings this season.
Indeed, the Spurs lost 99-104 on the road and 108-109 at home in the two meetings, which both went down to the wire. They should not be underdogs considering they will be the more motivated team, and they are better than their 4-7 record would suggest as they are actually outscoring opponents by 2.1 points per game on the season.
Conversely, Dallas isn't as good as its 7-4 record would suggest. The Mavericks have actually been outscored by 3.0 points per game on the season, so they are very fortunate to have that record. I don't like Jason Kidd as a head coach, and I don't like the fact that the Mavericks have to rely on Luka Doncic too much on the offensive end because he doesn't have much talent around him.
The Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record. San Antonio is 43-17 ATS in its last 60 Friday games. Bet the Spurs Friday.
|11-12-21||Kent State +10 v. Xavier||Top||59-73||Loss||-110||9 h 21 m||Show|
20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Kent State +10
We've already seen two MAC teams picked in the top half of the league go on the road and give two of the best Big Ten teams fits. Akron nearly upset Ohio State and lost by 1 as 16.5-point underdogs, while Buffalo easily covered at Michigan and gave the Wolverines a run for their money.
Now it's another top half of the MAC's teams turn to go on the road and give Xavier a run for its money tonight. I like this Kent State team that returns three starters in Tervell Beck (11.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG), Giovanni Santiago (9.1 PPG, 4.1 APG) and Justyn Hamilton (8.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG), plus a double-digit scorer off the bench in Malique Jacobs (10.0 PPG, 3.7 APG).
The positive news for the Golden Flashes doesn't stop there as they also welcome in transfers Sincere Carry (11.9 PPG, 5.4 APG) from Duquesne and Andrew Garcia (8.7 PPG) from Georgia. Keep an eye on freshman guard Jalen Sullinger, a second-team All-Ohio selection who is the nephew of Kent State assistant Julian Sullinger and NBA first-round pick Jared Sullinger and son of former Ohio State forward J.J. Sullinger.
Xavier's 63-60 win over Niagara as a 17-point favorite in the opener is concerning and makes me believe Kent State can hang, too. That's especially the case with the Musketeers being without their best player in Zach Freemantle (16.1 PPG, 8.9 RPG) to start the season. They are also without Ben Stanley (6.0 PPG) and could be without Kyky Tandy (6.6 PPG).
The Musketeers are 17-37-3 ATS in their last 57 games as favorites. The Golden Flashes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs. Take Kent State Friday.
|11-11-21||Pacers +10 v. Jazz||111-100||Win||100||10 h 31 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Pacers +10
This number has been adjusted too much toward the Utah Jazz due to the spot for the Indiana Pacers. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 98-101 loss in Denver last night. ut the spot is eased by the fact that the Pacers had two days off prior to that Denver game.
It's also eased by the fact that the Pacers are as healthy as they have been all season. They are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their two losses coming by 4 and 3 points. Their three wins came by 13, 13 and 3 points. Malcolm Brogdon is back healthy, and they could get Caris LeVert back tonight after he sat out last night.
This will be just the 2nd time all season that the Jazz have been a double-digit favorite. The last time they lost outright to the Orlando Magic as 11-point favorites. And I just think they are getting too much respect here. It's not the best spot for the Jazz either playing their 4th game in 6 days.
Indiana has thrived in these kinds of spots, going 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days. The Pacers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. Western Conference opponents. Indiana is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. The Pacers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs. Roll with the Pacers Thursday.
|11-11-21||Cal-Riverside +10 v. Arizona State||66-65||Win||100||8 h 20 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on UC-Riverside +10
UC-Riverside will be one of the best teams in the Big West Conference this season. They returned three starters and four key reserves from a squad that went 14-8 overall last season and 8-4 in the Big West. All three returning starters played well in their opener against San Diego State, as did Callum McRae who sat out all last season and newcomer J.P. Moorman II.
UC-Riverside lost that opener 53-66 to San Diego State as 12.5-point road underdogs, failing to cover by 0.5 points. Well, San Diego State is picked by most to win the Mountain West this season, so that was a very good showing. And the Aztecs are certainly better than this Arizona State squad.
The Sun Devils lost their top three scorers from last year in Remy Martin (19.1 PPG, 3.7 APG), Josh Christopher (14.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG) and Alonzo Verge Jr. (14.0 PPG, 3.8 APG). They bring back two starters and will lack chemistry in the early going. That was evident when they failed to cover in a 76-60 win as a 22-point home favorite against lowly Portland in their opener. Portland is picked to finish at or near the bottom of the WCC this season.
Arizona State has been a money burner for quite some time now and will continue to be this season. The Sun Devils are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games overall. Arizona State is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games as a favorite. The Sun Devils are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games after going UNDER the total in their previous game. Bet UC-Riverside Thursday.
|11-10-21||Pacers -3 v. Nuggets||98-101||Loss||-110||12 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indiana Pacers -3
The Indiana Pacers have gotten healthy and are living up to their potential because of it. They have gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Now they come in rested and ready to go having the last two days off and will take down the Denver Nuggets tonight.
This is a terrible spot for the Nuggets due to their injuries and suspensions. They are without their three best players in Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. I just don't think they have enough pieces outside those three to even keep this game competitive against the Pacers tonight.
The Pacers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. Western Conference opponents. Indiana is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games after scoring 105 point or less. The Pacers are 19-9-2 ATS in their last 30 games as road favorites. Indiana is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games. The Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games playing on one days' rest. Take the Pacers Wednesday.
|11-10-21||Youngstown State +18 v. Penn State||59-75||Win||100||11 h 38 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Youngstown State +18
Penn State is in a rebuilding year and should not be an 18-point favorite over Youngstown State tonight. They have a first-year head coach in Micah Sshrewsberry. They bring back just one double-digit scorer from last year's team and lose their top two scorers in Myreon Jones (15.3 PPG) and Izaiah Brockington (12.6 PPG).
Youngstown State will be going for its third straight winning season for the first time since 1985. Jerrod Calhoun has turned this program around as he enters his 5th season here with some continuity. The Penguins won seven of their final nine games last season and lost to Oakland in overtime in the Horizon League tournament.
The Penguins return three starters from that team in Garrett Covington (12.5 PPG< 4.6 RPG), Shemar Rathan-Mayes (10.4 PPG) and Michael Akuchie (9.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG). They also return four key bench players and bring in Dayton transfer Dwayne Cohill and Hampton transfer Chris Shelton.
The Nittany Lions are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites. I'm expecting them to struggle out of the gate. Roll with Youngstown State Wednesday.
|11-10-21||Mavs v. Bulls -3.5||Top||107-117||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3.5
The Chicago Bulls are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. They are 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS while outscoring opponents by 7.0 points per game. They rank 4th in defensive efficiency and 6th in offensive efficiency, one of only two teams that can claim to be Top 6 in both categories.
The Dallas Mavericks are also 7-3 this season, but they are actually getting outscored by 2.3 points per game, so they have been very fortunate in close games. The Mavericks rank just 22nd in offensive efficiency and 13th in defensive efficiency. They rely way too much on Luka Doncic, and I don't like Jason Kidd as a head coach.
The Mavericks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Dallas is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a win. The Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as underdogs. Chicago is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite. Bet the Bulls Wednesday.
|11-10-21||Nets v. Magic +9||123-90||Loss||-102||10 h 45 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +9
The Orlando Magic are rested and ready to go tonight having the last two days off following a huge upset of the Utah Jazz 107-100 as 11-point home underdogs. I love the way Cole Anthony is playing right now as he is leading this team with 20.2 points per game, and Wendell Carter Jr. (13.7 PPG, 10.6 RPG), Franz Wagner (13.7 PPG) and Jalen Suggs (12.0 PPG) are coming into their own as well.
The spot isn't nearly as good for Brooklyn. The Nets will be playing their 4th road game in 6 days. They started to show fatigue in the 4th quarter last time out in a 95-118 road loss to the Bulls. And the Nets have to deal with getting the opposing teams' best shot on a nightly basis just because of the big names in Durant and Harden they have on their roster. But they don't have much else outside those two, so covering these big spreads consistently won't be easy.
The Nets are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Orlando is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games playing on two days' rest. The Magic are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Take the Magic Wednesday.
|11-09-21||Blazers v. Clippers UNDER 220.5||109-117||Loss||-110||13 h 41 m||Show|
15* Blazers/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 220.5
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. And these teams are obviously familiar with one another now meeting for the third time in two weeks. The first two meetings saw just 202 and 203 combined points, and this one should be low scoring as well.
The Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. They have allowed 41.8% shooting or lower in six of their last seven games overall. They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season.
The Blazers are also improved defensively this season. They have held five of their last seven opponents to 107 points or fewer. They just limited the Lakers to 90 points last time out and I see both teams struggling to top 100 in this one.
The UNDER is 4-0 in Blazers last four games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Clippers last four home games vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 5-2 in Clippers last seven games overall. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|11-09-21||Oral Roberts +12.5 v. Colorado State||Top||80-109||Loss||-110||11 h 37 m||Show|
20* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Oral Roberts +12.5
Oral Roberts made the Sweet 16 last year. They return three starters from that team, including Summit League Player of the Year Max Abmas, who led college basketball in scoring at 24.6 points per game. They also bring back Kareem Thompson (8.7 PPG) and four other players that averaged at least 4.1 points per game.
Colorado State is getting too much respect as a 12.5-point favorite over Oral Roberts in the opener. The Rams nearly made the NCAA Tournament but came up just short last year. They will be good again with five returning starters, but they should not be laying double-digits here against Abmas and company.
The Golden Eagles are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs. Oral Roberts is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall. The Golden Eagles are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games. Bet Oral Roberts Tuesday.
|11-09-21||Louisiana Tech v. Alabama -11||64-93||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
15* LA Tech/Alabama SEC Network ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -11
Nate Oats is doing a tremendous job already at Alabama. He guided the Crimson Tide to a 26-7 season including a 16-2 record in SEC play to take down the regular season title and SEC Tournament. This team is loaded again with the best backcourt in the country.
Leading scorer Jaden Shackleford (14.0 PPG) decided to return this season. Javon Quinerly (12.9 PPG) made 43% from 3 last season. J.D. Davison is a five-star and one of the top recruits in the class of 2021 and will push Quinerly for playing time. The Crimson Tide ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency last season and played at the 11th-fasted tempo in the country.
Louisiana Tech is a quality team in Conference USA year in and year out. And while they do return three starters this season, they do lose two productive ones in Kaleb Ledoux (11.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG) and JaColby Pemberton (8.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG). They don't have the firepower to keep up with Alabama as they prefer to play at a slow tempo and are defensive-minded. Alabama will control the tempo playing at home. Roll with Alabama Tuesday.
|11-09-21||Akron v. Ohio State -16.5||66-67||Loss||-101||8 h 53 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -16.5
Ohio State is loaded this season with four returning starters from a team that went 21-10 last season and earned a No. 2 seed. They fell victim to Oral Roberts' incredible run, but that just means they come back this season highly motivated.
The Buckeyes bring back one of the best big men in the country in E.J. Lidell (16.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG). They also bring back three more starters including Justice Sueing (10.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG). They add Ohio Mr. Basketball Malaki Branham as an elite freshman recruit, plus Penn State transfer Jamari Wheeler and Louisiana guard Cedric Russell to solidify their backcourt.
Akron is no more than a middle-of-the-pack team in the MAC. The Zips bring back three decent starters but lose their best player in Loren Christian Jackson (22.3 PPG, 6.1 APG), who is irreplaceable for this team. Jackson turned pro after rolling up 1,587 points, 381 assists and two first-team All-MAC selections in his three years here. Take Ohio State Tuesday.
|11-08-21||Heat -2 v. Nuggets||96-113||Loss||-105||11 h 10 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Miami Heat -2
The Miami Heat look like the best team in the NBA in the early going. They are 7-2 with one loss in overtime and another loss where they shot a fluky 34.5% as a team. Six of their seven wins have come by 13 points or more, and the lone exception was a win over the Utah Jazz by 3 last time out.
The Denver Nuggets are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. Two of the wins were narrow victories over bad teams in the Timberwolves (93-91) and Rockets (95-94). They are already without Jamal Murray, and they will also be without Michael Porter Jr. due to a back injury tonight. Meanwhile, the Heat are fully healthy which is why they are playing so well.
Plays against home underdogs (Denver) - off a close home win by 3 points or less in November games are 42-13 (76.4%) ATS since 1996. The Heat are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites. Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The Nuggets are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Denver is 0-6 ATS in its last six games playing on one days' rest. Roll with the Heat Monday.
|11-08-21||Nets v. Bulls -1||Top||95-118||Win||100||10 h 11 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1
This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls off back-to-back losses to the Philadelphia 76ers following their 6-1 start to the season. Now the Bulls are highly motivated for a victory Monday night. They are fresh too playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.
The same cannot be said for the Nets, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days. They won 96-90 at Detroit on Friday and 116-103 at Toronto on Sunday. James Harden played 38 minutes against the Raptors and Kevin Durant played nearly 37 minutes. Four of five starters played at least 33 minutes. They won't have much left in the tank for the Bulls tonight.
The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs. The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as favorites. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. Take the Bulls Monday.
|11-07-21||Bucks v. Wizards +3||94-101||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Washington Wizards +3
The Washington Wizards are one of the most improved teams in the NBA. They are 6-3 this season with wins over the Raptors, Pacers, Hawks, Celtics (twice) and are coming off a 115-87 home win over Memphis. I really like this roster with the additions of Harrell (18.0 PPG, 9.7 RPG), Kuzma (14.0 PPG, 9.4 RPG), Dinwiddie (17.1 PPG, 5.9 APG) and Caldwell-Pope (9.8 PPG) as they are gelling well with Bradley Beal (23.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 5.1 APG) and company.
The Milwaukee Bucks are in the midst of a championship hangover. They are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with upset home losses to the Timberwolves, Spurs and Knicks as well as a 12-point loss to the Jazz. Their lone win during this stretch came against the lowly Pistons.
The problem for the Bucks is injuries and COVID. They are playing without Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez and Donte DiVincenzo and could be without Grayson Allen tonight. Giannis and Jrue Holiday haven't been able to shoulder the load. And it just appears the Bucks are going through the motions. The Wizards will be the more motivated team with the defending champs coming to town today.
Washington is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following a win by 10 points or more. The Wizards are 26-11-1 ATS in their last 38 games overall. Washington is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 games playing on one days' rest. Take the Wizards Sunday.
|11-07-21||Nets v. Raptors +3.5||116-103||Loss||-110||6 h 9 m||Show|
15* Nets/Raptors NBA Early ANNIHILATOR on Toronto +3.5
The Toronto Raptors are playing great right now in going 5-1 SU in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming by a single point. Now they get their best player back making his season debut today in Pascal Siakam and will be highly motivated with the Brooklyn Nets coming to town.
The Nets have also won four in a row but three have come at home and the other was a shaky 96-90 road win over the Pistons. The Raptors have won three straight road games against Indiana, New York and Washington and have played the much tougher schedule during this stretch of success.
The Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. The Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their five games overall. Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last seven meetings with Brooklyn. Bet the Raptors Sunday.
|11-06-21||76ers v. Bulls UNDER 213||114-105||Loss||-110||11 h 33 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Bulls UNDER 213
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. Philadelphia just beat Chicago 103-98 on Wednesday for 201 combined points. Now these teams meet again just three days later here Saturday and I expect another defensive battle.
Philadelphia ranks dead last (30th) in pace this season at 97.8 possessions per game. The 76ers are missing some key offensive weapons in Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons and Mattisse Thybulle. They could also be without Furkan Korkmaz, Danny Green and Isaiah Joe, who are all questionable. They will be looking to slow it down to a snail's pace.
The Bulls will oblige as they rank just 21st in pace this season. And the key reason the Bulls have been so improved this year with their 6-2 start is defense. They rank 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, holding opponents to 100.2 points per 100 possessions. The 76ers are in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency as well.
Philadelphia is 8-1 UNDER in all games this season. The UNDER is 10-1-1 in 76ers last 12 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 8-1 in Bulls last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 15-4 in Bulls last 19 games overall. Roll with the UNDER In this game Saturday.
|11-06-21||76ers v. Bulls -3.5||Top||114-105||Loss||-110||11 h 37 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3.5
I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight. They will be playing on two days' rest after last playing in a 98-103 loss at Philadelphia on Wednesday. Now they get their chance for revenge against the 76ers at home this time around. They will take advantage and get their revenge with a win and cover.
The 76ers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days as they had to go on the road and face Detroit on Thursday. They are missing several key players right now with Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons and Mattisse Thybulle out tonight. They could also be without Furkan Korkmaz, Danny Green and Isaiah Joe, who are all questionable.
Philadelphia is 6-22-1 ATS in its last 29 games as a road underdog. Chicago is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite. The Bulls are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a loss by 6 points or less. The 76ers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following two consecutive covers as a favorite. Take the Bulls Saturday.
|11-05-21||Hornets v. Kings -1||Top||110-140||Win||100||13 h 35 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -1
The Sacramento Kings are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. They have been competitive in every game during their 4-4 start and even have upset road wins over both the Suns and Blazers as 8 and 6.5-point dogs, respectively. They are the better team in this showdown with Charlotte and should be a bigger favorite.
The Kings are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only losses both coming on the road to the Mavericks by 6 and the Jazz by 6. The Kings rank 11th in offensive efficiency this season and have a great young, healthy roster. They are 22nd in defensive efficiency.
Charlotte is overvalued after a 5-2 start this season. The Hornets have since gone 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games, getting upset at home by the Cavaliers and blown out on the road by the Warriors by 22. Charlotte cannot be trusted this season because they rank 28th in defensive efficiency. Opponents are shooting 47.9% against them and scoring 114.9 points per game.
Sacramento is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 November games. Charlotte is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a road underdog. The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as favorites. Take the Kings Friday.
|11-05-21||Clippers v. Wolves +2.5||104-84||Loss||-110||11 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5
I love the spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. They are coming off three straight losses and this is a home-and-home situation after losing 115-126 to the Clippers on Wednesday. Now the Timberwolves will be out for revenge just two days later here.
The Timberwolves will be the more motivated team in this game. I have a hard time believing the Clippers are going to shoot anywhere near as well as they did in the first meeting. They shot 47-of-78 (60.3%) from the field and 21-of-36 (58.3%) from 3-point range and still only won by 11. That's not happening again.
Especially when you consider the Timberwolves are one of the most improved teams in the NBA defensively this season, ranking 9th in defensive efficiency even after that performance. The Clippers are still just 22nd in offensive efficiency even after that performance. And they are still missing three key players in Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris and Serge Ibaka.
Minnesota is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 games following a loss. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following an ATS win. The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Timberwolves Friday.
|11-04-21||Rockets +10.5 v. Suns||111-123||Loss||-106||12 h 27 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +10.5
The Houston Rockets have quietly been very competitive. They have gone 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with only one loss by more than 10 points. They beat the Thunder and lost to the Celtics, Mavericks and Lakers (twice) by 10 points or fewer. They'll stay within 10 of the Suns tonight as well.
Phoenix has been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season. They are just 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS and were fortunate to cover against the depleted Pelicans last time out, winning by 12 as 11.5-point favorites only after a 36-18 4th quarter. They lost to the Blazers by 29, were upset by the Kings as 8-point favorites, lost to the Nuggets by 12, and failed to cover as 10-point favorites against the Cavaliers. The NBA Finals loss hangover is in full effect.
The Rockets were extremely competitive with the Suns last season and that was a disastrous year for Houston and a tremendous one for Phoenix. All three meetings were decided by 6 points or less, and the Rockets were 13 and 14-point dogs in two of the games.
Houston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss. The Rockets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. Phoenix is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall. The Suns are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Houston is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 trips to Phoenix. Roll with the Rockets Thursday.
|11-04-21||Jazz -109 v. Hawks||Top||116-98||Win||100||10 h 49 m||Show|
20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz ML -109
The Utah Jazz were the best team in the regular season last year and are off to another great start this season. They are 6-1 and crushing teams once again with all six wins coming by 6 points or more and four by double-digits. They had yesterday off and will be fresh for this one.
This is a terrible spot for the Atlanta Hawks. They'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 108-117 road loss at Brooklyn on ESPN on National TV last night. The Hawks will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough a spot as you will find in the NBA today.
The Jazz are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as favorites. Utah is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as road favorites. Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last five games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. The Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as underdogs. Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games when playing on zero rest. Bet the Jazz Thursday.
|11-03-21||Mavs v. Spurs +1||Top||109-108||Push||0||11 h 23 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +1
I love the spot for the San Antonio Spurs tonight. They had yesterday off and will be fresh. They will be out for revenge from a 99-104 loss at Dallas on October 28th just a week ago. I expect them to have their revenge with an outright home win tonight considering the terrible spot for the Mavericks.
Indeed, Dallas will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 110-125 home loss to the Miami Heat last night on TNT. It will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Mavericks, which is about as tough a situation as you will find in the NBA. And they are going to be without Maxi Kleber and likely Kristaps Porzingis again, so they are short-handed.
The Spurs are 27-14 ATS when revenging a road loss over the last three seasons. The Mavericks are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Dallas is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games vs. a team that wins between 25% and 40% of their games. Take the Spurs Wednesday.
|11-03-21||Bulls +3 v. 76ers||98-103||Loss||-102||10 h 58 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +3
Billy Donovan has the Chicago Bulls playing as well as almost anyone in the NBA in the early going. The Bulls are 6-1 this season with their lone loss coming by a single point to the New York Knicks. They should not be catching 3 points against the short-handed Philadelphia 76ers tonight.
The 76ers are getting too much respect after their upset win over the Blazers last time out without Embiid, Harris and Simmons. Well, Embiid is expected back, but they are still going to be without Harris (COVID) and Simmons. Danny Green is also out with a hamstring injury. The Bulls won't take them lightly like the Blazers did.
The Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last five road games. Philadelphia is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with the Bulls Wednesday.
|11-02-21||Rockets +10.5 v. Lakers||117-119||Win||100||12 h 54 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +10.5
I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight. They will be out for revenge from an 85-95 road loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday. They don't have to wait long for revenge as they get to face the Lakers in Los Angeles just two days later here Tuesday.
The Lakers are dealing with a ton of injuries right now, which is a big reason they are just 2-5 ATS this season with only one win by more than 10 points. They are without Kendrick Nunn, Talen Horton-Tucker and Trevor Ariza. LeBron James, Dwight Howard and Wayne Ellington are questionable, and Anthony Davis is probable but playing through a knee injury.
The Lakers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following two or more consecutive home wins. The Rockets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss. Houston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games. Los Angeles is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Lakers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a win. Roll with the Rockets Tuesday.
|11-02-21||Heat -2 v. Mavs||Top||125-110||Win||100||9 h 51 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2
The Miami Heat are a juggernaut this season. They are off to a 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS start after having a down year last season due to injuries and COVID. They added Kyle Lowry, PJ Tucker and Markieff Morris to go along with their already loaded roster featuring Butler, Herro, Adebayo and Robinson.
The Heat are not only winning, they are dominating with all five wins coming by double-digits as they are outscoring opponents by 17.0 points per game. Their lone loss came in overtime. They beat the Bucks by 42, the Magic by 17, the Nets by 13, the Hornets by 15 and the Grizzlies by 26.
I don't trust Jason Kidd and the Dallas Mavericks. They are 4-2 SU but 2-4 ATS. Their four wins all came against suspect competition in the Raptors, Rockets, Spurs and Kings and all four were competitive. They lost to the Hawks by 26 and the Nuggets by 31, the two best teams they have faced. Miami will be the best team they have faced yet, and they will be without Maxi Kleber and could be without Kristaps Porzingis, who is questionable.
The Heat are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as favorites. The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win. Dallas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. The Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to Dallas. Take the Heat Tuesday.
|11-01-21||Raptors +7 v. Knicks||113-104||Win||100||9 h 32 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +7
It's time to 'sell high' on the New York Knicks after their 5-1 start this season. They have feasted on a pretty easy schedule and are now laying 7 points to the Toronto Raptors, who come into this game playing too well to be catching this many points.
Indeed, the Raptors are 3-0 in their last three games overall with two wins over the Pacers and a win over the Magic. They also beat the Celtics by 32 on the road earlier this season and have been competitive in every loss except their opener.
Toronto is 20-8 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. The Raptors are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. good offensive teams that score 116 or more points per game. Toronto is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog. Roll with the Raptors Monday.
|11-01-21||Cavs +5.5 v. Hornets||Top||113-110||Win||100||8 h 2 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers +5.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They have outright wins as underdogs over the Hawks by 6 as 8-point home dogs, the Nuggets by 12 as 9.5-point road dogs and the Clippers by 13 as 8-point road dogs.
They did lose on the road to the Lakers by 12 as 7.5-point dogs, but covered in a 9-point loss at Phoenix as 10-point dogs. And I like their chances of covering this 5.5-point spread on the road against the Charlotte Hornets tonight. The Cavaliers have an underrated young core and will be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.
This is a terrible spot for the Hornets. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 125-113 shootout victory over the Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday. It will also be the 6th game in 9 days for the Hornets, which is about as tough a spot as you will find in the NBA. They will be flat and tired tonight and Cleveland will take advantage. Take the Cavaliers Monday.
|10-31-21||Rockets +11 v. Lakers||85-95||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
15* Rockets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +11
The Los Angeles Lakers cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number with how poorly they are playing to open the season. They are just 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS with two of their wins coming by 4 points or less, and the other by 12 over the Cavaliers.
The Lakers are just dealing with too many injuries right now, and they are still trying to gel with Russell Westbrook at point guard. LeBron James, Wayne Ellington and Rajon Rondo are questionable, while Kendrick Nunn, Talen Horton-Tucker and Trevor Ariza are out. It's no wonder they are struggling to win games let alone get margin.
I like some of the young talent on this Houston team, which has only lost twice in five games by more than 10 points. Christian Wood (19.8 PPG, 11.2 RPG) is one of the best young players in the NBA. Then they have Green (14.2 PPG), Gordon (13.8 PPG), Porter Jr. (12.4 PPG) and Tate (8.6 PPG) leading the way.
Houston is a perfect 10-0 ATS in its last 10 road games following a blowout loss by 30 points or more. The Rockets come in on two days' rest after that loss to the Jazz. The Lakers will be playing their 4th game in 6 days. Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite. Houston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a loss. Take the Rockets Sunday.
|10-31-21||Kings +4.5 v. Mavs||Top||99-105||Loss||-105||6 h 1 m||Show|
20* Kings/Mavs Sunday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Sacramento +4.5
The Sacramento Kings have impressed me a lot getting to 3-2 against a brutal early schedule. They have three outright road wins over the Blazers as 6.5-point dogs, the Suns as 8-point dogs and the Pelicans as 1.5-point favorites. Their two losses came to the Jazz and Warriors at home in competitive games.
Now the Kings had yesterday off and are fresh and ready to take down the Dallas Mavericks. This is a Mavericks team I just do not trust with Jason Kidd as head coach, and Kristaps Porzingis being the 'robin' to Doncic's 'batman. The Mavericks are 1-4 ATS this season and coming off a 31-point road loss to the Nuggets. They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here.
Sacramento is 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games after a win by 6 points or less. Dallas is 0-9 ATS in its last nine Sunday home games. The Kings are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games. The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games. Bet the Kings Sunday.
|10-30-21||Thunder +12.5 v. Warriors||Top||82-103||Loss||-110||10 h 4 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +12.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder have impressed me in their last two games. They covered as 9.5-point dogs in an 8-point home loss to Golden State two games back. They came back the very next night and upset the Lakers by 8 as 6-point home dogs last time out.
Now the Thunder want revenge from that 8-point loss to the Warriors. And they are catching 12.5 points this time around. Not only that, but the Thunder come in rested playing on two days' rest, so expect a big effort from them tonight.
The Warriors are overvalued after their 4-1 start this season. They have feasted on a pretty weak schedule as they were favored in four of their five games. And now they are laying their biggest number of the season here. They just don't have the talent to cover these big numbers, especially in this unfavorable spot. Take the Thunder Saturday.
|10-30-21||Hawks v. 76ers -3||Top||94-122||Win||100||9 h 4 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -3
The Philadelphia 76ers want revenge after getting upset by the Atlanta Hawks in the playoffs last year. This is their first shot at getting it, and I look for them to take advantage by getting the win and cover at home. The 76ers have been one of the best home teams in the NBA over the last few seasons.
The Hawks have not been good on the road this season. They are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS on the highway. They were upset 95-101 at Cleveland as 8-point favorites. They only won 102-99 at New Orleans as 5-point favorites. And they lost 111-122 at Washington as 3-point favorites. And this will be their toughest road test to date.
Philadelphia is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 home games following an ATS loss. Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games. The 76ers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss. Bet the 76ers Saturday.
|10-30-21||Knicks -5.5 v. Pelicans||123-117||Win||100||9 h 33 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks -5.5
The New York Knicks are a real contender in the East this season with the additions of Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier to go along with their already great core from last year that made the playoffs.
Fournier is averaging 17.2 points per game while Walker is at 14.2 points per game thus far in leading the Knicks to a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start. Now the Knicks come in rested after beating the Bulls on the road on Thursday and having yesterday off.
The Pelicans don't have that same luxury. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days after a 109-113 home loss to the Kings last night. The Pelicans are just 1-5 this season and just aren't playing well without their best player in Zion Williamson. I faded them successfully with the Kings last night, and I'm fading them again tonight due to the awful spot.
The Knicks are 9-1 ATS in Saturday games over the last two seasons. They are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 Saturday games. New York is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after a win by 6 points or less. The Knicks are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games as favorites. New York is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Knicks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 trips to New Orleans. Bet the Knicks Saturday.
|10-30-21||Celtics +2 v. Wizards||112-115||Loss||-107||7 h 33 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Boston Celtics +2
I love the spot for the Boston Celtics tonight. They come in on two days' rest after losing 107-116 at home to Washington as 4-point favorites on Wednesday. Now they get their shot at revenge on the Wizards three days later and are 2-point dogs this time around, a 6-point adjustment.
It's time to 'sell high' on the Wizards, who are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS this season. They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. And they won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Celtics this time around. Plus, they are short-handed playing without Bryant, Hachimura and Gafford right now.
The Celtics are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games playing on two days' rest. Roll with the Celtics Saturday.
|10-29-21||Kings -2 v. Pelicans||Top||113-109||Win||100||10 h 7 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2
The Sacramento Kings have faced four playoff teams in the West thus far with one of the toughest schedules in the NBA. They have done well getting to 2-2 with two road wins over both the Blazers and Suns. They lost at home to the Jazz and Warriors.
Now the Kings take a big step down in competition here against the New Orleans Pelicans, who remain without Zion Williamson. The Pelicans are 1-4 this season with losses to the 76ers by 20, the Bulls by 16, the Timberwolves by 7 and the Hawks by 3. Their lone win came against the Timberwolves. There's just not much talent on this team with Zion out and the players they traded away in the offseason.
Sacramento is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games following a win by 6 points or less. The Kings are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Bet the Kings Friday.
|10-28-21||Knicks v. Bulls -114||Top||104-103||Loss||-114||10 h 32 m||Show|
20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls ML -114
The Chicago Bulls are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season. They are loaded with returnees Zach LaVine (25.5 PPG), Nikola Vucevic (14.3 PPG, 11.5 RPG) and Patrick Williams (6.8 PPG). But the additions of DeMar DeRozan (22.5 PPG), Lonzo Ball (14.3 PPG, 5.0 APG) and Alex Caruso (8.0 PPG) have made them a real contender in the East.
The New York Knicks just ended a 15-game losing streak to the Philadelphia 76ers with a 112-99 home victory on Tuesday. That makes this a letdown spot for them. I also like the fact that the Bulls are on extra rest as they have had the last two days off after last playing on Monday.
Chicago is 32-10 SU in its last 42 home meetings with New York. The Bulls are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games as favorites. Roll with the Bulls Thursday.
|10-27-21||Wolves v. Bucks OVER 228||113-108||Loss||-115||10 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Bucks OVER 228
The Milwaukee Bucks and Minnesota Timberwolves both prefer to play at fast paces. The Bucks rank 3rd in pace while the Timberwolves rank 5th. That should lead to a shootout between these two great offensive teams tonight.
Both meetings last season were very high-scoring. The Bucks won 139-112 at home for 251 combined points in their first meeting. The Bucks also won 130-105 on the road for 235 combined points in the second meeting. I think we are getting value with the OVER 228 tonight.
The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. The OVER is 5-1 in Bucks last six games playing on one days rest. The OVER is 5-1 in Timberwolves last six games as underdogs. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|10-27-21||Lakers v. Thunder +8||Top||115-123||Win||100||10 h 27 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +8
Both the Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight. But it's a much better spot for the Thunder as they get to stay home following an 8-point loss to the Warriors last night.
The Lakers have to travel after facing the Spurs and escaping with a 125-121 victory. They also escaped with a 121-118 victory over the Grizzlies at home the game prior. They lost to the Suns by 10 and the Warriors by 7 at home as well. They are just 1-3 ATS this season and struggling to gel with Russell Westbrook.
Now the Lakers have more problems in this 2nd of a back-to-back situation. They have a plethora of injuries. Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Wayne Ellington are all questionable to play tonight. Kendrick Nunn, Talen Horton-Tucker and Trevor Ariza were already out. They won't have enough bodies to put away the Thunder by 8-plus points tonight.
The Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as favorites. Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall. Los Angeles is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games following a win. Oklahoma City is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home meetings with the Lakers. Bet the Thunder Wednesday.
|10-26-21||76ers v. Knicks UNDER 218||99-112||Win||100||9 h 17 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Knicks UNDER 218
I really like the UNDER in this game between the 76ers and Knicks tonight. The Knicks were the best UNDER team in the NBA last season, and their defense-first philosophy won't change under Tom Thibodeau this season. I think the fact that they have gone over the total in all three games this season provides us with value on the UNDER tonight.
The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. The 76ers and Knicks have combined for 201 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings. They have combined for 213 or fewer in six of their last seven as well. This has been an UNDER series and will continue to be tonight.
The UNDER is 17-8 in 76ers last 25 road games. The UNDER is 11-2 in 76ers last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 6-1 in 76ers last seven games overall. The UNDER is 5-1 in Knicks last six games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in New York. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|10-26-21||76ers v. Knicks -114||Top||99-112||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks ML -114
The New York Knicks picked up two impressive wins over the Celtics and Magic by 25 in their first two games. I bet the Magic against them last game, and they won outright as 12-point dogs. It was a predictable letdown spot for the Magic in a home-and-home situation. But now we can 'buy low' on the Knicks here against the 76ers.
The 76ers have a lot of turmoil right now surrounding Ben Simmons. They also have a lot of injuries with Simmons out, and Embiid, Milton and Drummond all questionable. Their two wins came against the lowly Pelicans and Thunder. They lost to the best team they have faced in the Nets.
The Knicks are 27-7 ATS in their last 34 games with a line of +3 to -3. The 76ers are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games as road underdogs. The Knicks are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games as favorites. New York is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 games overall. Bet the Knicks Tuesday.
|10-25-21||Pelicans +5.5 v. Wolves||107-98||Win||100||11 h 36 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +5.5
I like the spot for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. They will be out for revenge from an 89-96 road loss at Minnesota on Saturday. They won't have to wait long to get it as they face the Timberwolves again tonight in Minnesota.
New Orleans is highly motivated for revenge and to get its first win. Minnesota is feeling good about itself after a 2-0 start with their other win coming against the Rockets. I think they let up tonight after having already beaten the Pelicans, which is going to make it tough for them to cover this 5.5-point spread.
The Timberwolves are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as home favorites. The Pelicans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. Take the Pelicans Monday.
|10-25-21||Bulls -2.5 v. Raptors||Top||111-108||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2.5
The Chicago Bulls are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season and coming off wins by 16 and 15 points. They are the real deal this season with LaVine, Vucevic and Williams to go along with newcomers Ball, DeRozan and Caruso. There's a lot to like about this team.
Now DeRozan will enjoy his shot at revenge against his former team in the Toronto Raptors tonight, and the Bulls should rally around him. The Raptors are missing their best player in Pascal Siakam. The Raptors are 1-2 this season with a 15-point home loss to Washington and an 8-point home loss to Dallas.
The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as favorites. The Raptors are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs. Toronto is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven home games. Bet the Bulls Monday.
|10-24-21||Magic +12 v. Knicks||110-104||Win||100||8 h 53 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +12
I like the spot for the Orlando Magic today. This is a home-and-home situation. The Knicks lost 121-96 at home to the Knicks as 8-point underdogs on Friday. Now they come back as 12-point underdogs in New York in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment.
The Magic will be the more motivated team in the rematch. The Knicks will feel like they just have to show up to win. And they have a huge game on deck against the 76ers that they could be looking ahead to.
Plays against favorites (New York) - after scoring 120 points or more in two straight games against an opponent that scored 43 points or less in the first half last game are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1996. Take the Magic Sunday.
|10-24-21||Hornets +9.5 v. Nets||111-95||Win||100||5 h 53 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Hornets +9.5
The Charlotte Hornets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. They are off to a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season. They have a nice core of Ball, Bridges, Hayward and Washington. They added Oubre Jr. in the offseason, which was a great move.
The Brooklyn Nets are going to be consistently overvalued this season because they are one of the favorites to win the NBA title. But they don't have Kyrie Irving because of personal choices he has made. And they don't have a lot of help outside Kevin Durant and James Harden. They lost by 23 to the Bucks in their opener before coming back to beat the 76ers by 5. Bet the Hornets Sunday.
|10-23-21||Pistons +8.5 v. Bulls||82-97||Loss||-108||8 h 29 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +8.5
This is a bad spot for the Chicago Bulls. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after beating a very bad New Orleans Pelicans team at home last night. And I question their motivation here after already beating the Pistons in their opener.
Detroit will be the more motivated, fresher team here catching 8.5 points. The Pistons want revenge from their 88-94 home loss to the Bulls on Wednesday. It was a back and forth game, and I think this one will play out that way as well. Bet the Pistons Saturday.
|10-23-21||Heat -4 v. Pacers||91-102||Loss||-110||7 h 30 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -4
This is a very tough spot for the Indiana Pacers. They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and are coming off a 134-135 (OT) loss to Washington without Bradley Beal yesterday. They won't have much left in the tank for this 2nd of a back-to-back, especially since they are missing some key players to injury already.
The Miami Heat are loaded this season. They brought in Kyle Lowry, P.J. Tucker and Markieff Morris to go with the already great core of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson. Tyler Herro also figures to take a step forward.
The Heat will be fresh as this will be just their second game of the season. They were very impressive in their 137-95 home win over Milwaukee on Thursday. Herro had 27, Butler 21 and Adebayo 20 to lead the way.
Indiana is 2-16 ATS in its last 18 games after playing two consecutive road games. The Heat are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games as favorites. Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings in Indiana. Roll with the Heat Saturday.
|10-22-21||Pelicans +7 v. Bulls||112-128||Loss||-107||11 h 3 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +7
The Chicago Bulls are one of the most hyped teams in the NBA coming into the season. And they managed to cover despite a poor shooting performance in a 94-88 win at Detroit as 5.5-point favorites. But the Pistons are awful and were missing Cade Cunningham.
Now the Bulls are about as big of a favorite as they have been at any point over the last couple seasons as 7-point favorites over the Pelicans. I do like the talent on the Bulls, but I think we can make some money fading their hype early.
It's a good 'buy low' spot on the Pelicans off their 20-point loss to the 76ers in the opener. They shot just 41.9% as a team, largely due to an awful game from newcomer Jonas Valanciunas (3-for-19). He is much better than that and I think he is an upgrade over Steven Adams, who they traded to the Grizzlies for him.
Chicago is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 home games following a win. The Bulls are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 Friday night home games. The Pelicans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games. New Orleans is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 meetings in Chicago. Roll with the Pelicans Friday.
|10-22-21||Knicks -7.5 v. Magic||121-96||Win||100||10 h 3 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -7.5
The Orlando Magic already have some of the worst talent in the entire NBA. I think they are the worst team in the NBA to open the season with all their injuries. They are without Gary Harris, Michael Carter-Williams, Chuma Okeke, E'Twuan Moore, Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac.
Their lack of talent showed in their 97-123 road loss to the Spurs in the opener. And it's not going to get any easier here against the Knicks, who beat the Boston Celtics 138-134 (OT) in their opener.
This is a Knicks team that was one of the most improved in the NBA last year and should build on that with the additions of Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier to go with Mitchell Robinson, RJ Barrett, Julius Randle, Obi Toppin, Derrick Rose and company. Fournier had 32 points against the Celtics.
The Knicks are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a losing record. New York is 35-17-1 ATS in its last 53 games overall. Orlando is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine home games. The Magic are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games as underdogs. Take the Knicks Friday.
|10-21-21||Bucks v. Heat +3||95-137||Win||100||11 h 39 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Heat +3
The Miami Heat are loaded this season. They brought in Kyle Lowry, P.J. Tucker and Markieff Morris to go with the already great core of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson. Tyler Herro also figures to take a step forward.
Miami wants revenge from getting swept by the Milwaukee Bucks in the playoffs last year. They obviously don't have to wait long to get it by hosting the Bucks in the opener. This is a game I fully expect them to win outright. The Bucks have four key guys out to injury. Take the Heat Thursday.
|10-20-21||Cavs +7.5 v. Grizzlies||121-132||Loss||-103||9 h 52 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers are flying under the radar to open the season. They have Collin Sexton, Jarrett Allen and Darius Garland leftover from last year. And they added Lauri Markkanen from the Bulls and drafted Evan Mobley with the No. 3 overall pick.
The Memphis Grizzlies are getting a lot of hype this season after making the playoffs last year. They bring back JA Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr, but they are without Dillon Brooks to start the season and the trade of Jonas Valuncias for Steven Adams is a downgrade for them. This number is too high for the opener. Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.
|10-20-21||Pacers v. Hornets -1||122-123||Push||0||8 h 51 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -1
I like this Charlotte Hornets team. They have LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier and Miles Bridges healthy to start the season. They added Kelly Oubre Jr and drafted James Bouknight and Kai Jones. They are fully healthy to start the season.
The Pacers will be a great 'bet on' team once they get healthy. But they aren't healthy to start the season. They are missing Caris LeVert and TJ Warren. Both Jeremy Lamb and Justin Holidcay are questionable, and Malcolm Brogdon is already dealing with a shoulder injury.
The Hornets want revenge from a 117-144 road loss to the Pacers in the play-in game last year. They don't have to wait long for revenge as they host the Pacers on opening night. Take the Hornets Wednesday.
|10-19-21||Warriors v. Lakers -3.5||Top||121-114||Loss||-102||12 h 53 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Lakers NBA Season Opener on Los Angeles -3.5
The Los Angeles Lakers made a big move this offseason to bring in Russell Westbrook to play alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis. This might be the best Big 3 we've ever seen. And all three are healthy to start the season to we get to see them in action on opening night.
With those three, the Lakers have six potential future Hall of Famers when you include Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony and Rajon Rondo. They added shooting as well with Wayne Ellington, Malik Monk and Kendrick Nunn. Ellington will be out, but Monk is expected to play and Nunn is questionable.
The Golden State Warriors open the season missing two of their best players again in Klay Thompson and James Wiseman. Stephen Curry did a great job last year of getting the Warriors into the playoffs. But he'll have to shoulder too much of the load again to start the season.
The Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs. Bet the Lakers Tuesday.
|07-20-21||Suns +5 v. Bucks||Top||98-105||Loss||-110||12 h 33 m||Show|
20* Suns/Bucks ABC No-Brainer on Phoenix +5
The Milwaukee Bucks shot 57.5% from the floor and 14-of-28 (50%) from 3-point range to steal Game 5 in Phoenix. I look for the Suns to return the favor here in Game 6 and take this series back to Phoenix for a Game 7. It's clear the Bucks aren't going to shoot that well again.
Chris Paul has been off the last three games after a tremendous start to the series after a great close to the Clippers series. I look for him to come up big here in Game 6 with the season on the line once again, and for Devin Booker to continue his great play. The Suns should get more from their role players as well here tonight.
It's definitely a 'buy low' spot on the Suns off three consecutive losses after winning the first two games of this series. The Bucks are 6-17 ATS following three or more consecutive wins this season. Milwaukee wasn't this big of a favorite in either of its first two home meetings with the Suns in this series, so I believe there is value with the road team here. Bet the Suns Tuesday.
|07-17-21||Bucks v. Suns UNDER 218||Top||123-119||Loss||-104||31 h 21 m||Show|
20* Bucks/Suns ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 218
The longer a series goes the more familiar teams become with one another. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. And this should be the lowest scoring game of the series to date between the Bucks and Suns in this pressure-packed Game 5 tonight with the series tied 2-2 apiece.
I cashed in the UNDER 222 in Game 3 in a game that saw 220 combined points. It still stayed UNDER the total despite a 69-point 3rd quarter. I cashed in the UNDER 220.5 in Game 4 in a game that saw just 212 combined points despite a 61-point 2nd quarter. And I'm expecting 212 or fewer combined points in Game 5 tonight as well, so we have some room to work with in this 218-point total.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 or higher (Phoenix) - off two or more consecutive road losses, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 36-11 (76.6%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|07-14-21||Suns v. Bucks UNDER 220.5||Top||103-109||Win||100||12 h 1 m||Show|
20* Suns/Bucks ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 220.5
The longer a series goes the more familiar teams become with one another. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. And this should be the lowest scoring game of the series to date between the Bucks and Suns tonight.
I cashed in the UNDER 222 in Game 3 in a game that saw 220 combined points. It still stayed UNDER the total despite a 69-point 3rd quarter. I don't see another quarter being that high scoring again, but I do see one or two quarters with 50 points or fewer.
Phoenix has shot well in every game thus far and shot 48.2% again in Game 3. They are probably due for an off night from the field. And I don't see the Bucks scoring 120 again and shooting as well as they did in Game 3 either.
Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 220 or higher (Phoenix) - a well rested team playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 44-14 (75.9%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Wednesday.
|07-11-21||Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222||Top||100-120||Win||100||13 h 33 m||Show|
20* Suns/Bucks ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 222
The Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks went OVER the total in each of their first two games in this series. Now I believe there is value in the UNDER in Game 3 tonight between the Bucks and Suns in this pivotal game for Milwaukee.
The longer a series goes, the more familiar teams become with one another. And familiarity always favors defense and low scoring games. That should prove to be the case in this series, starting with Game 3 tonight.
The Suns made 20 3-pointers in Game 2 and that game still saw just 226 combined points after a bunch of fouls at the end. This game should stay well UNDER 222 combined points with the Suns not shooting nearly as well as they did last game. And the Bucks have shot poorly for most of these playoffs and that should continue against an elite defensive team like Phoenix.
Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 220 or higher (Phoenix) - a well rested team playing four or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 43-14 (75.4%) over the last five seasons.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 or higher (Milwaukee) - off two or more consecutive road losses, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 36-10 (78.3%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|07-08-21||Bucks +5.5 v. Suns||Top||108-118||Loss||-110||34 h 18 m||Show|
25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Milwaukee Bucks +5.5
I lost on the Bucks +6 in Game 1 for a rare loss recently in these playoffs as I have been pretty spot on. I like the value I got as the Bucks closed as 5-point dogs after it was announced that Giannis would play, but there were still questions about how effective he would be.
I think Giannis answered those questions in Game 1 with 20 points and 17 rebounds on 6-of-11 shooting in over 35 minutes of action. And with a healthy Giannis in Game 2, the Bucks should not be even bigger 5.5-point underdogs to the Phoenix Suns Thursday night.
We've seen the Suns win and cover in all three Game 1's in these playoffs, but they've gone 1-2 ATS in their three Game 2's. I think they will relax a little here and the Bucks will be playing with more of a sense of urgency in Game 2 to try and even this series heading back to Milwaukee.
The Suns had a huge advantage at the free throw line in Game 1 that isn't likely to happen again. They made 16 more free throws than the Bucks, who only attempted 16 for the game. Milwaukee is a great team at getting to the rim and drawing fouls and should get more benefit from the whistles in Game 2. Bet the Bucks Thursday.
|07-06-21||Bucks +6 v. Suns||Top||105-118||Loss||-100||10 h 40 m||Show|
20* Bucks/Suns ABC No-Brainer on Milwaukee +6
I cashed in the Bucks in Games 5 and Games 6 against the Atlanta Hawks without Giannis. The loss of him has created a big overreaction from the oddsmakers and the betting public, and that looks to be the case again in Game 1 against the Phoenix Suns as he is listed as doubtful.
The Bucks have now gone 8-2 this season in games that Kris Middleton has played in which Giannis hasn't. Middleton, Holiday, Lopez and Portis combined for 106 points in the Game 5 win over the Hawks. Middleton had 32 points and Holiday 27 in the Game 6 win. Those are two of the most underrated players in the NBA and fully capable of keeping the Bucks competitive in this series without Giannis.
The Suns won both regular season meetings, but by just one point each. I look for Game 1 to go down to the wire as well, so there is value in getting the Bucks as 6-point underdogs. Bet the Bucks Tuesday.
|07-03-21||Bucks +2 v. Hawks||Top||118-107||Win||100||10 h 53 m||Show|
20* Bucks/Hawks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee +2
I cashed in the Bucks in Game 5 and I'm back on them again in Game 6 due to the line value. Consider that the Bucks were 8 and 8.5-point home favorites in Games 1 and 2. And they were 5 and 8.5-point road favorites in Games 3 and 4. Then they were -2 for Game 5 at the time we bet them and cashed that ticket. Now they are underdogs for the first time in this series in Game 6.
The value is clearly with the Bucks, who have actually gone 7-2 SU this season in games that Kris Middleton has played in which Giannis hasn't. The loss of Giannis is getting a big overreaction from the betting public and oddsmakers. Trae Young has also missed the last two games for the Hawks and he is almost more important to them than Giannis is to the Bucks. Young is questionable to return tonight and won't be anywhere near 100% if he does.
Middleton and Jrue Holiday are two of the most underrated players in the NBA. Middleton had 26 points, 13 rebounds and 8 assists in Game 5 while Holiday added 25 points and 13 assists. They got Brook Lopez involved as he scored 33 points, and Bobby Portis had 22. There is just more talent outside of Giannis on their team than there is on the Hawks outside of Young. Bet the Bucks Saturday.
|07-01-21||Hawks v. Bucks -2||Top||112-123||Win||100||12 h 47 m||Show|
20* Hawks/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -2
We are getting great value on the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 5 tonight when you compare the previous lines in this series. We'll take advantage and back the Bucks as a short home favorite.
The Bucks were 8-point home favorites in Game 1, 8.5-point home favorites in Game 2, 5-point road favorites in Game 3 and 8.5-point road favorites in Game 4. So this is a huge adjustment and it's not warranted, even with the injury to Giannis.
The Hawks rallied without Trae Young in Game 4, and the Bucks will do the same thing without Giannis in Game 5. There's still enough talent on this team to get the job done and hold serve while Giannis misses at least one game. And the Hawks could be missing two of their best players in Young and Clint Capela, who are both questionable.
Plays on any team (Milwaukee) - revenging a blowout road loss by 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 53-24 (68.8%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Bucks Thursday.
|06-30-21||Suns +1 v. Clippers||Top||130-103||Win||100||12 h 47 m||Show|
20* Suns/Clippers ESPN No-Brainer on Phoenix +1
The Los Angeles Clippers had one of those shooting performances in Game 5 that is simply tough to overcome. They won't shoot that well again in Game 6, and I fully expect the Suns to close out this series.
The Clippers shot 54.8% from the field and 93.3% from the free throw line in Game 5. Paul George went 15-of-20 shooting and Reggie Jackson went 8-of-14 while Marcus Morris went 9-of-16. It's unlikely those three shoot that well again as they are asked to carry the brunt of the scoring load.
The Suns shot 55.1% in Game 1 and 50% in Game 2 before falling down to 38.9% in Game 3, 36% in Game 4 and 45.2% in Game 5. Look for them to get back to closer to 50% in Game 6 tonight.
Phoenix is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 road games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite. The Suns are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more. Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Suns are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss. Bet the Suns Wednesday.
|06-29-21||Bucks v. Hawks +7||Top||88-110||Win||100||12 h 47 m||Show|
20* Bucks/Hawks TNT No-Brainer on Atlanta +7
We are getting great value on the Atlanta Hawks in Game 4 tonight. They go from being 4.5-point underdogs in Game 3 to 7-point dogs in Game 4, a 2.5-point adjustment.
The Hawks are coming off two straight losses to the Bucks. They haven't lost three in a row since the end of April, so they have been a very resilient team. They are still 16-7 SU in their last 23 games overall.
The Hawks are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games. Atlanta is 51-23 ATS in its last 74 games following a double-digit home loss. Bet the Hawks Tuesday.
|06-28-21||Clippers v. Suns UNDER 214.5||Top||116-102||Loss||-110||13 h 32 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Suns ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 214.5
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. The longer a series goes on, the more familiar teams become with one another, and the harder it is for the offense to execute.
That has been the case in this series between the Suns and Clippers. They combined for 234 points in Game 1, then just 207 points in Game 2, 198 points in Game 3 and 164 points in Game 4.
While I don't expect Game 5 to be as low scoring as Game 4 with 164 points, we have plenty of margin for error here with this 214.5-point total. Both teams aren't likely to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 4, but I don't see either team lighting it up either in this elimination game.
The UNDER is 31-15 in Clippers last 46 games as road underdogs. The UNDER is 35-17-3 in Clippers last 55 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|06-27-21||Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 224||Top||113-102||Win||100||13 h 41 m||Show|
20* Bucks/Hawks TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 224
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. The longer a series goes, the more familiar teams become with one another and the harder it is for the offenses to score.
After combining for 229 points in Game 1, the Hawks and Bucks only combined for 216 points in Game 2. And I think it will be even lower scoring in Game 3, so there's value with the UNDER 224 tonight.
The UNDER is 6-2-1 in Bucks last nine games overall. The UNDER is 5-1 in Hawks last six games overall. The UNDER is 10-1 in Hawks last 11 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game tonight.
|06-26-21||Suns v. Clippers UNDER 218.5||Top||84-80||Win||100||12 h 43 m||Show|
20* Suns/Clippers ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 218.5
After a shootout in Game 1, the Suns and Clippers have come back down to earth the past two games. And the longer a series goes the more familiar teams become with one another. That familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.
Game 2 saw 207 combined points in a 104-103 victory by the Suns. Game 3 saw 198 combined points in a 106-92 victory by the Clippers. And Game 4 should stay well UNDER this 218.5-point total.
Having Chris Paul back makes the Suns a better defensive team, and a more efficient offensive team, but he was clearly rusty in Game 3 going 5-of-19 from the floor. And Devin Booker is having to wear a mask which made him go 5-of-21 in Game 3. The Suns have to play at a slower pace with Paul running the point and getting them in sets almost every trip down the floor.
The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Los Angeles. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. The UNDER is 23-10-3 in Clippers last 36 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|06-25-21||Hawks v. Bucks -7.5||Top||91-125||Win||100||9 h 16 m||Show|
20* Hawks/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -7.5
The Atlanta Hawks pulled their 3rd straight Game 1 victory on the road in these playoffs. Now it's time for the Milwaukee Bucks to not take them lightly in Game 2 and to get the job done to even this series.
We saw the Hawks lose both Game 2's in their first two series as well after winning Game 1. They lost by 9 to the Knicks and then by 16 to the 76ers. And I think we see a double-digit victory by the Bucks here tonight.
A lot went right for the Hawks in Game 1 that likely won't go in their favor again. They shot 49.5% as a team while the Bucks shot just 8-of-36 (22.2%) from 3-point range. The Bucks also attempted only 14 free throws, so the calls weren't going their way. They will get to the line much more in Game 2 as they are more aggressive in attacking the rim.
Plays against underdogs (Atlanta) - off two consecutive upset wins as road underdogs, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 44-15 (74.6%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Bucks Friday.
|06-24-21||Suns v. Clippers +106||Top||92-106||Win||106||14 h 1 m||Show|
20* Suns/Clippers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles ML +106
Amazingly, the Los Angeles Clippers have trailed 2-0 in each of their first two series in these playoffs. They've come back to win both series, beating the Mavericks in 7 and winning four straight to beat the Jazz in 6.
So the Clippers are a resilient bunch that won't be phased by being down 2-0 to the Suns. And they won those final two games against Utah without Kawhi Leonard outright as underdogs before taking the Suns to the wire in each of the first two games in this series in 6 and 1-point losses.
Now the Clippers are back home where their fans will be very excited to see them playing in the Western Conference Finals. Plus, I expect the Suns to relax a little, especially coming off a game-winner like they just had in Game 2. I don't expect them to continue shooting as well as they have either as they shot 55.1% in Game 1 and 50% in Game 2 yet still only won those games by a combined 7 points.
Los Angeles is 34-17 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons. The Clippers are 37-21 ATS in their last 58 games following a SU loss. Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games. The Clippers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as home underdogs. Los Angeles is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with Phoenix. Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Thursday.
|06-23-21||Hawks v. Bucks OVER 225.5||Top||116-113||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Bucks OVER 225.5
Game 1 is the game to take an OVER in an NBA playoff series. Teams don't know what to expect from one another and it gives the edge to the offenses. We've seen that with the Hawks as they have gone OVER the total in both their Game 1's in these playoffs. They combined with the 76ers for 252 points in Game 1 last series.
The Bucks are coming off a down offensive series against the Nets, but they should get right here against the Hawks. Atlanta just doesn't have an answer for Giannis, so he'll be able to get whatever he wants.
The Hawks and Bucks combined for 244, 229 and 215 points in their three regular season meetings. I think this 225.5-point total has been set too low for Game 1 at least. Both teams attempt a ton of 3-pointers and hit them at a high clip. That should be the case here with plenty of defensive mistakes in Game 1.
The OVER is 17-8-1 in the last 26 meetings in Milwaukee. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|06-22-21||Clippers v. Suns OVER 222.5||103-104||Loss||-110||9 h 29 m||Show|
15* Clippers/Suns ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 222.5
The Los Angeles Clippers have embraced their small ball lineup and it is paying dividends while also resulting in high-scoring games. The OVER is 5-1 in Clippers last six games overall with combined scores of 222 or more points in all six games and an average of 233.7 combined points per game.
The Phoenix Suns are without Chris Paul, which hurts them defensively but it makes them play at a faster pace offensively. So this series should be an OVER series until he returns. And that was the case in Game 1 which saw 234 combined points despite only 26 combined free throws attempted. There will surely be more foul calls in Game 2 tonight.
The OVER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Phoenix. The OVER is 4-0 in Clippers last four games as underdogs. The OVER is 12-4-1 in Suns last 17 games following an ATS win. The OVER is 25-12-1 in Suns last 38 games overall. Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|06-20-21||Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 217.5||Top||103-96||Win||100||36 h 47 m||Show|
20* Hawks/76ers TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 217.5
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. We are now into Game 7 so the Hawks and 76ers are very familiar with one another. And these Game 7's always seem to be lower scoring with the season on the line for both teams, so the pressure ramps up and the game slows down.
The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series from Games 4 through 6. They combined for 203 points in Game 4, 215 points in Game 5 and 203 points in Game 6. And now we have another total that is set way too high here at 217.5 for Game 7.
Atlanta is 16-1 UNDER in its last 17 games when attempting to close out a playoff series. The Hawks are 17-5 UNDER in their last 22 games when facing elimination in a playoff series. The UNDER is 9-2 in Hawks last 11 playoff games as underdogs. The UNDER is 8-1 in Hawks last nine games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Plays on the UNDER on any team (Atlanta) - in the 7th game of a playoff series are 52-22 (70.3%) since 1996. Game 7 UNDERS have been money in the bank for years. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|06-19-21||Bucks v. Nets UNDER 215||Top||115-111||Loss||-103||13 h 24 m||Show|
20* Bucks/Nets TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 215
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. We are now into Game 7 so the Bucks and Nets are very familiar with one another. And these Game 7's always seem to be lower scoring with the season on the line for both teams, so the pressure ramps up and the game slows down.
We've seen 211 or fewer combined points in four of the six meetings in this series as the UNDER is 5-0-1 thus far. They have averaged just 203.3 combined points per game in this series, so we are still getting a ton of value on the UNDER 215.
James Harden is banged up and playing through a hamstring injury. Kyrie Irving remains out with an ankle injury. The Nets just aren't the same offensive juggernaut that they were when their Big 3 were healthy. And the Bucks have been struggling offensively all series and that won't change tonight.
Milwaukee is 14-3 UNDER when playing against a team that wins 60% to 70% of their games this season. The UNDER is 7-0-1 in Bucks last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 7-0-1 in the last eight meetings. The UNDER is 7-0-1 in Nets last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|06-18-21||76ers v. Hawks UNDER 221.5||Top||104-99||Win||100||8 h 3 m||Show|
20* 76ers/Hawks ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 221.5
Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. As a series goes on, teams become more familiar with one another. And that's the case here for the Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers in this Game 6 elimination game.
After combining for 203 points in Game 4, the Hawks and 76ers combined for 215 points in Game 3. And both teams shot very well in that game with the 76ers are 45.9% and the Hawks at 46.7%. They also attempted 66 combined free throws, yet that game still saw just 215 combined points. So I like the chances of Game 6 staying well UNDER 221.5 points.
Atlanta is 15-1 UNDER in its last 16 games when attempting to close out a playoff series. The Hawks are 24-7 UNDER in their last 31 playoff games when leading in the series. The UNDER is 15-7 in 76ers last 22 road games. The UNDER is 10-3 in Hawks last 13 games overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|06-17-21||Nets v. Bucks UNDER 220.5||Top||89-104||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nets/Bucks UNDER 220.5
This has been a very low scoring series with the UNDER going 4-0-1 in the first five games. They combined for 222 points in Game 1, 211 points in Game 2, 169 points in Game 3, 203 points in Game 4 and 222 points in Game 5. That's an average of just 205.4 combined points per game, so we are getting a ton of value with this UNDER 222 tonight.
Game 5 only saw 102 combined points at halftime but 122 after intermission. Both teams shot lights out as the Bucks and Nets both shot exactly 49.4% from the floor. That is unlikely to happen again, especially for the Nets with Harden basically a non-factor and Irving still out.
Familiarity favors defense and lower scoring games. As a series goes on, teams become more familiar with one another. And this is an elimination game with everything on the line. It will be played at a slower pace which was the case in Game 5 with the slowest pace of the series. That's especially the case without Irving and with a slowed Harden for the Nets.
Milwaukee is 12-2 UNDER in its last 14 home games following an upset loss as a road favorite. The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Nets last seven games as underdogs. The UNDER is 6-0 in Bucks last six games following a loss. The UNDER is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|06-16-21||Hawks v. 76ers -6.5||Top||109-106||Loss||-108||9 h 17 m||Show|
20* Hawks/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Philadelphia -6.5
The Philadelphia 76ers played their worst game of the series in Game 4 and still nearly won in Atlanta. Joel Embiid had been dominant for three straight games before going 4-for-20 in Game 4, including 0-for-12 in the 2nd half. He'll be much better at home in Game 5 and lead the 76ers to a win and cover.
Philadelphia had won Games 2 and 3 by 16 points each before their 3-point loss in Game 4. The Hawks just don't have an answer for Embiid, and he opens everything up for everyone else to hit open shots. This is just a tough team to tame offensively, and defensively they have been solid in holding the Hawks to 103, 111 and 102 points in the last three games despite playing at a fast tempo.
Atlanta is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 road games as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. Philadelphia is 10-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season. The 76ers are 11-2 ATS in home games off a loss this season. Philadelphia is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 home games. The 76ers are 33-8 SU at home this season. Bet the 76ers Wednesday.
|06-15-21||Bucks -4 v. Nets||Top||108-114||Loss||-105||8 h 50 m||Show|
20* Bucks/Nets TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -4
The Milwaukee Bucks have a golden opportunity here to take control of this series with all the injuries to the Brooklyn Nets. They came back from a 2-0 deficit and won Games 3 and 4 at home, and now I expect them to get the win and cover on the road here against the depleted Nets.
Brooklyn just isn't going to be the same dominant team it was during the regular season and early on in these playoffs when they had the Big 3 of Durant, Harden and Irving healthy. Now they will be without both Harden and Irving for Game 5 Tuesday night after Irving suffered an ankle injury in Game 4. Durant is one of the best players in the world, but the Nets just don't have much they can count on outside of him.
I'll back the team basketball of the Bucks, who have been able to get to the rim at will these past two games and should continue to do so tonight with tons of easy buckets. The Nets' only chance here is to shoot great from 3-point range with a bunch of role players, but the looks won't be nearly as good without Harden and Irving facilitating, so I don't like their chances.
The crazy part is that Milwaukee has yet to shoot the ball to its potential, but it is coming in this series at some point. They are just 36-of-135 (26.7%) from 3-point range in this series. Milwaukee is 30-14-1 ATS in the last 45 meetings. The Bucks are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 meetings in Brooklyn. Bet the Bucks Tuesday.
|06-14-21||Jazz v. Clippers -4.5||Top||104-118||Win||100||13 h 11 m||Show|
20* Jazz/Clippers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles -4.5
The Los Angeles Clippers let the Utah Jazz off the hook in the first two games in this series. They put it all together in Game 3 and won 132-106. Now I look for them to even this series with a win and cover at home tonight.
The Jazz made a franchise record 20 3-pointers in Game 2. They came back and made 19 3-pointers in Game 3 and still lost by 26 points. That's a bad sign for them moving forward in this series. The Jazz miss Mike Conley a lot and will be without him again Monday night.
Utah is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after trailing its previous game by 15 points or more at halftime. The Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as underdogs. Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a favorite. Bet the Clippers Monday.
|06-13-21||Nets v. Bucks +2.5||Top||96-107||Win||100||5 h 50 m||Show|
20* Nets/Bucks ABC No-Brainer on Milwaukee +2.5
The Milwaukee Bucks won Game 3 86-83 despite shooting just 37.8% from the field and 6-of-31 (19.4%) from 3-point range. That was an incredible effort to gut out that win, and it gives them a ton of confidence heading into Game 4.
In fact, the Bucks have shot poorly all series, which is an aberration based on the fact that they were one of the best shooting teams in the NBA during the regular season. They went 8-of-27 (29.6%) from 3 in Game 2 and 6-of-30 (20%) from 3 in Game 1.
It's safe to say the Bucks are due to shoot to their potential in Game 4. And from a line value perspective, this is a 6-point adjustment from Game 3. They go from being 3.5-point favorites in Game 3 to 2.5-point underdogs in Game 4. There is a ton of value with the Bucks as home underdogs today.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Brooklyn) - off a road cover where they lost SU as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS since 1996.
Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Brooklyn) - after beating the spread by 54 points or more total in their last 10 games against an opponent that went under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Bucks Sunday.
|06-12-21||Jazz v. Clippers -4.5||Top||106-132||Win||100||11 h 27 m||Show|
25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Clippers -4.5
The Los Angeles Clippers will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 tonight after losing the first two games of this series to the Jazz. They blew a double-digit lead in Game 1 and lost by 3 points, then lost by 6 points in Game 2 as both games went to the wire.
It's amazing Game 2 went to the wire when you consider how well Utah shot the ball. They shot 55.3% from the field and 20-of-39 (51.3%) from 3-point range and broke some franchise records in that category.
The Jazz won't shoot that well again as the Clippers are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA. They will give a big effort in Game 3 at home this time around with their fans behind them. And it should be enough to cover this 4.5-point spread.
The Jazz are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Utah is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as an underdog. The Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as favorites. Bet the Clippers Saturday.
|06-11-21||Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 223.5||Top||116-102||Win||100||23 h 16 m||Show|
20* Suns/Nuggets ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 223.5
I cashed in the UNDER 223 in Game 2 by the narrowest of margins. But that was a dead nuts UNDER until the backups got in in the 4th quarter.
It was 52-42 Phoenix at halftime for 94 combined points. Then they went off for 127 points in the 2nd half, including 68 in the 4th quarter when the backups were in and there was no defense being played.
Game 3 is expected to be close with the Nuggets currently 1.5-point favorites. The defensive intensity should be high for four quarters, thus giving us an easy winner on the UNDER.
The Suns are an elite defensive team and the Nuggets are struggling to find offense outside Nikola Jokic. And after two huge offensive performances by the Suns, I have to think the Nuggets will improve defensively in Game 3 with their season on the line at home.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (Phoenix) after four or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 51-19 (72.9%) over the last five seasons.
Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 220 or higher (Phoenix) - a well rested team playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 37-12 (75.5%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|06-10-21||Nets v. Bucks -3||Top||83-86||Push||0||33 h 40 m||Show|
20* Nets/Bucks ESPN No-Brainer on Milwaukee -3
The season and pride is on the line for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. It's safe to say they will give their best effort of the season, and it should be good enough to get a win and cover and get back in this series against the Brooklyn Nets.
After losing by 8 points in Game 1, the Bucks were absolutely embarrassed with a 39-point loss in Game 2. That's why their pride is on the line here, and they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. I also expect the Nets to take their foot off the gas after how easy Game 2 came for them.
The Nets aren't going to continue shooting this well all series. They made 15-of-40 from 3-point range in Game 1 and an even better 21-of-42 in Game 2. Conversely, the Bucks made 6-of-30 in Game 1 and 8-of-27 in Game 2.
The Bucks are a much better shooting team than they've shown and should be better where they are comfortable at home, especially their role players. They shoot 39.6% from 3 on the season while the Nets are at 38.3%, so it has been an aberration. Plus, being without James Harden will catch up with the Nets sooner rather than later.
Milwaukee is 12-3 ATS after losing two of their last three games this season, coming back to win by 14.7 points per game. The Nets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as playoff underdogs. Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Bucks are 29-13-1 ATS in the last 43 meetings. Bet the Bucks Thursday.
|06-09-21||Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 223||Top||98-123||Win||100||10 h 23 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Suns UNDER 223
The Phoenix Suns are a great UNDER team because they are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and they play at a slow tempo. I'll come back with the UNDER in Game 2 after Game 1 saw 227 combined points and went over the 222.5-point total.
The Suns had a great shooting game in Game 1 scoring 122 points and making 54.1% from the field. I don't see that happening again here. The Nuggets only scored 105 points but still shot a decent 46.7% from the field. I don't foresee either team topping 110 points in Game 2 tonight.
Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 220 or higher (Denver) a well rested team playing 4 or less games in 10 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 36-12 (75%) over the last five seasons.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (Phoenix) - after four or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 50-19 (72.5%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|06-08-21||Hawks v. 76ers -6||102-118||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
15* Hawks/76ers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -6
The Atlanta Hawks jumped on the 76ers early and held on late for the upset win in Game 1. I fully expect the 76ers to have their revenge, and it's a great sign moving forward for them that Embiid looks healthy after his big performance in Game 1.
The Hawks shot 51.2% from the field and 20-of-47 (42.6%) from 3-point range in Game 1. They won't have that big of an offensive performance again, and they really don't have an answer fro Philadelphia defensively with so many weak defenders in their lineup.
Philadelphia is 10-2 ATS in home games following a loss this season. It is coming back to win by 10.6 points per game on average in this spot. The 76ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. Philadelphia is 32-8 SU at home this season and 10-1 SU in its last 11 home games. Roll with the 76ers Tuesday.
|06-07-21||Nuggets v. Suns -5||105-122||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Suns TNT ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix -5
The Phoenix Suns just knocked off LeBron James and the Lakers with three striaght wins by 8, 30 and 13 points. No team has been more impressive than them in these playoffs thus far. And now they actually take a step down here against the Denver Nuggets.
The Nuggets were able to get by the Blazers without Jamal Murray and Will Barton. But the Blazers don't play defense like the Suns, who have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season. Denver's offense will bog down in this series against the Suns, starting with Game 1 tonight.
The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on three or more days' rest. The Suns are 37-14-1 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning record. Phoenix is 6-1 ATS in its last seven playoff games as a favorite. Take the Suns in Game 1 Monday.
|06-07-21||Bucks +100 v. Nets||Top||86-125||Loss||-100||8 h 54 m||Show|
25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Milwaukee Bucks ML +100
The Milwaukee Bucks will bounce back with a victory in Game 2 after a poor shooting performance in Game 1. They had gone 12-2 in their previous 14 games prior to that Game 1 defeat.
I have a hard time seeing Milwaukee shooting 6-of-30 (20%) from 3-point range again. The Bucks are too good of a shooting team for that to happen, and I also like the fact that they won't have to deal with James Harden in Game 2. He is out with a hamstring injury.
The Bucks are 29-12-1 ATS in their last 42 meetings with the Nets. Milwaukee is 16-4-1 ATS in its last 21 trips to Brooklyn. Bet the Bucks in Game 2 Monday.
|06-06-21||Hawks v. 76ers -3.5||Top||128-124||Loss||-110||3 h 23 m||Show|
20* Hawks/76ers ABC No-Brainer on Philadelphia -3.5
This line is set with the assumption that Joel Embiid isn't playing. If he plays it would just be an added bonus. But the 76ers have proven they can win without him all season, including their 129-112 win over the Washington Wizards in Game 5 last series.
The Atlanta Hawks are getting a lot of respect in Game 1 of this series after taking down the New York Knicks last series. But the Knicks were a great regular season team because of their grittiness from night to night. They weren't a great playoff team because they were seriously short on talent.
The 76ers have been one of the best home teams in the NBA over the last handful of seasons. That was the case again this season as they are 32-7 SU & 24-14-1 ATS at home, including 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. That includes two home wins over the Hawks by 22 and 44 points during this stretch. Bet the 76ers Sunday.
|06-05-21||Bucks +4 v. Nets||Top||107-115||Loss||-102||12 h 37 m||Show|
20* Bucks/Nets TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee +4
The Milwaukee Bucks made a statement in the first round by sweeping the Miami Heat. Not only did they win that series, they dominated it by outscoring the Heat by an average of 20.5 points per game in the four wins.
It's clear that the Bucks are more built for the playoffs this season than they were last year. They added guys like Jrue Holiday, PJ Tucker and Brynn Forbes to make them a lot more versatile. The upgrade from Eric Bledsoe to Holiday has been a massive one.
The Nets were also dominant in knocking off the Celtics in five games. But that was a Boston team playing without one of its best players in Jaylen Brown for the entire series and another of its top players in Kemba Walker for a big portion of it. I don't think you can put too much stock in their series win.
The Bucks went 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS against the Nets in their three meetings this season with their only loss coming by two points on the road. And keep in mind they were favored in all three of those games, and now they are 4-point dogs in Game 1, so there is value with the Bucks here. Milwaukee is 29-11-1 ATS in the last 41 meetings and 16-4-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings in Brooklyn. Bet the Bucks Saturday.
|06-04-21||Clippers -2.5 v. Mavs||Top||104-97||Win||100||11 h 22 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Mavericks ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles -2.5
The road team is now 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in this series. It should be more of the same here with the Clippers staving off elimination in Game 6. The Clippers have won their two meetings at Dallas by 10 and 25 points. Los Angeles is now 8-2 in its last 10 road meetings with the Mavericks.
The Clippers are still the more complete team in this series despite being down. They are way better than Dallas defensively, and they have more pieces that can help them win offensively with Kawhi and George leading the way. The Mavericks are too reliant upon Luka Doncic for my liking, and he is still banged up.
The Clippers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after failing to cover five or six of their last seven games. Dallas is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 home games off a road win. Bet the Clippers Friday.
|06-03-21||Nuggets v. Blazers -5||Top||126-115||Loss||-103||11 h 12 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Blazers TNT No-Brainer on Portland -5
The Portland Trail Blazers will respond today and keep their season alive with a win and cover at home in Game 6. They will get a much better performance from their role players at home than they did on the road at Denver in Game 5, wasting a huge game from Damian Lillard.
But remember that Lillard only had one field goal in Game 4 and the Blazers won going away 115-95. Powell had 29 points, McCollum 21, Nurkic 17 and Anthony 12. Role players just tend to play better at home where they are more comfortable.
Plays against road underdogs (Denver) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 25-4 (86.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Blazers Thursday.
|06-02-21||Grizzlies +9.5 v. Jazz||110-126||Loss||-104||12 h 35 m||Show|
15* Grizzlies/Jazz NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +9.5
All four games have gone down to the wire in this series despite that fact that the Jazz are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings. All three games were decided by 12 points or less, and the last two the Jazz pulled away late in close games.
I think there's value with the Grizzlies, who have been an extremely resilient team this season and won't go down without a fight in Game 5. Asking the Jazz to beat them by double-digits to cover this spread is simply asking too much.
The Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs. The Jazz are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. Memphis is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 trips to Salt Lake City. Roll with the Grizzlies Wednesday.
|06-02-21||Hawks v. Knicks -1||Top||103-89||Loss||-110||10 h 35 m||Show|
20* Hawks/Knicks TNT No-Brainer on New York -1
The New York Knicks have yet to play up to their potential in this series. I think we get the best out of them with their season on the line in Game 5 tonight at home.
The Knicks haven't shot better than 44.7% in any game this series, and they have shot 42% or worse in three straight games. They played their two best games at home where they lost by 2 in Game 1 and came back and won by 9 in Game 2. There is some real good energy in Madison Square Garden right now with the Knicks finally back in the playoffs.
New York is 26-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season, including 18-2 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Hawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. New York is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games when playing on two days' rest. Bet the Knicks Wednesday.
|06-02-21||Wizards +6 v. 76ers||112-129||Loss||-102||9 h 5 m||Show|
15* Wizards/76ers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Washington +6
The Washington Wizards have some life now after winning Game 4 to stave off elimination. This will be a dangerous team the rest this series, especially now that Joel Embiid is doubtful for the 76ers with a knee injury. Philadelphia should not be a 6-point favorite over Washington without Embiid.
Embiid had 30 points in Game 1, 22 in Game 2 and 36 in Game 3. He means everything to this team, and the game really flipped in Washington's favor when Embiid went out with that knee injury in the 2nd quarter in Game 4. Now the 76ers will have to go small ball, which plays right into Washington's hands. They didn't have an answer for Embiid inside, but now they don't have to worry about it.
The Wizards are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall. Washington is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 road games. The Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs. Take the Wizards Wednesday.
|06-01-21||Blazers +2 v. Nuggets||Top||140-147||Loss||-101||10 h 20 m||Show|
20* Blazers/Nuggets NBA TV No-Brainer on Portland +2
The best Portland team is better than the best Denver team right now due to the Nuggets being without Murray and Barton. And we've seen the best Portland team twice in this series in their 14-point win in Game 1 and their 20-point win in Game 4. I expect we get the best Portland team in Game 5 tonight with this series in the balance.
The Nuggets just don't have much help outside Nikola Jokic and they are asking him to do too much. While he is likely an MVP, he isn't good enough to carry a team like other superstars in this league. Especially not without Murray, and we saw how huge Murray was for this team in the playoffs last year.
Portland is 11-3 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Denver is 5-14 ATS when revenging a road loss this season. The Blazers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. Portland is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Wrong team favored here. Bet the Blazers Tuesday.
|05-31-21||Jazz v. Grizzlies +6||Top||120-113||Loss||-105||11 h 55 m||Show|
20* Jazz/Grizzlies TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +6
The Memphis Grizzlies have battled the Utah Jazz in all three games and have held their own. Now they are in a must-win in Game 4 here at home to try and even this series as they head back to Salt Lake City for Game 5.
The Grizzlies actually took a late lead in Game 3 before closing cold from the field. They wound up shooting just 43% overall and 31.7% from 3-point range, while the Jazz shot 49.4% overall and 44.2% from free throw range while attempting 13 more free throws than the Grizzlies.
It was impressive to see the Grizzlies actually take a late lead despite those differences in Game 3. If they can close the gap just a little, they will easily cover this 6-point spread and possibly win this thing outright.
The Grizzlies are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games playing on one days' rest. Memphis is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games as an underdog, including 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a home underdog. The Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit home loss. Bet the Grizzlies Monday.
|05-30-21||Clippers -3 v. Mavs||Top||106-81||Win||100||11 h 9 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Mavs TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3
The Los Angeles Clippers could have packed it in down 0-2 and down 19 points early in Game 3 to the Dallas Mavericks. Instead, they showed tremendous resiliency and came back to win 118-108 behind huge games from Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Now they will be playing with unbelievable confidence in Game 4 tonight.
Conversely, the Mavericks might not react very well to blowing that huge lead. And now they have to deal with an injury to their best player in Luka Doncic, who went into halftime with a shoulder injury and it was clearly still bothering him in the second half. He played through it but wasn't nearly as effective. At the very least he won't be 100% tonight, even though he's listed as questionable.
The road team has won all three meetings in this series and it will be more of the same tonight. The Clippers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine trips to Dallas. Bet the Clippers Sunday.
|05-30-21||Suns +6.5 v. Lakers||100-92||Win||100||5 h 10 m||Show|
15* Suns/Lakers ABC ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix +6.5
There is a lot being made of the Chris Paul injury, but he's going to be fine. The Lakers have injuries of their own that aren't getting publicized as much with both Anthony Davis (knee) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (knee) both questionable for this one.
I fully expect the Suns to bounce back with a much better performance in Game 4 after losing the last two games in this series. They shot just 42.7% in Game 3 and are a much better shooting team than they have shown thus far in this series.
Phoenix is 10-2 ATS when revenging a road loss this season. Los Angeles is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games off a home win by 10 points or more. The Suns are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games following an ATS loss. Phoenix is 35-16-1 ATS in its last 52 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Lakers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. Roll with the Suns Sunday.
|05-30-21||Knicks +5 v. Hawks||Top||96-113||Loss||-108||3 h 40 m||Show|
20* Knicks/Hawks ABC No-Brainer on New York +5
A 22-5 run to close the 1st half was the difference in the Hawks winning 105-94 over the Knicks in Game 3. The Knicks will bounce back in Game 4 with a likely outright win to even this series, but we'll take the points for some insurance.
Everything went right for the Hawks in Game 3. They shot 51.9% as a team and a ridiculous 16-of-27 (59.3%) from 3-point range. That's not going to happen again. Meanwhile, the Knicks shot just 36.2% as a team and 9-of-30 (30%) from 3-point range. Yet they still only lost by 11 points. Those percentages will narrow here in Game 4.
The Knicks are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss. New York is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 road games. The Knicks are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games overall. New York is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Knicks are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 meetings in Atlanta. Take the Knicks Sunday.
|05-29-21||76ers v. Wizards +6.5||Top||132-103||Loss||-103||9 h 51 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +6.5
The Washington Wizards are in must-win mode in Game 3 tonight as the series shifts to Washington. The Wizards won't go away quietly as they showed tremendous resiliency down the stretch when their odds to miss the playoffs were like 99%.
Washington had a woeful shooting performance in Game 2, making just 40.2% from the field and 2-of-22 (9.1%) from 3-point range. That won't happen again. This happened against Boston in the play-in round and they bounced back with a 142-115 home win over Indiana to get into the playoffs.
The Wizards are 10-1 SU in their last 11 home games with their only loss coming by 3 points in overtime. Philadelphia is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 road games following two or more consecutive home wins. The Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. Washington is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games following a SU loss. The Wizards are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. Washington is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games overall. Take the Wizards Saturday.
|05-29-21||Nuggets v. Blazers -4||Top||95-115||Win||100||27 h 4 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -4
This is a big bounce-back spot for the Portland Trail Blazers after losing the last two games in this series to fall behind 2-1. This is essentially a must-win for them, and I fully expect them to play like it and be the team playing with more sense of urgency today.
I also don't expect the Nuggets to shoot as well as they did in Game 3. They shot 20-of-38 (52.6%) from 3-point range while Portland shot just 14-of-45 (31.1%) from 3-point range. Yet the Blazers only lost by 5. Austin Rivers won't be as good as he was in Game 3 either as he single-handedly won the game for them down the stretch.
Denver is 21-38 ATS in its last 59 games following two or more consecutive wins. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Portland) - playing with double revenge off against an opponent that's off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog are 71-36 (66.4%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Blazers in Game 4 Saturday.
|05-28-21||Clippers -2.5 v. Mavs||Top||118-108||Win||100||11 h 54 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Mavericks ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5
The Dallas Mavericks shot 50% in Game 1 and made 17 3-pointers at a 47.2% clip. The Mavericks followed it up with an even better performance in Game 2, shooting 58.5% from the field while making 18 3-pointers at a 52.9% clip.
I have to think the Mavericks will cool off partly due to regression, but also because the Clippers will make the proper adjustments to slow down Luka Doncic. Whether that be Kawhi Leonard guarding him most the game or not, there will be adjustments made.
I really like the Clippers in this do-or-die situation to get a Game 3 victory and get back in this series. Los Angeles is 33-20 ATS in its last 53 games following a loss. The Clippers are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 road games when revenging a same-season loss. Los Angeles is 6-2 ATS in its last eight trips to Dallas.
Plays on favorites (LA Clippers) - revenging a SU loss vs. opponent as a favorite of 7 points or more against an opponent that is off two consecutive upset wins as underdogs are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Clippers Friday.
|05-28-21||Knicks +5 v. Hawks||94-105||Loss||-105||8 h 14 m||Show|
15* Knicks/Hawks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York +5
This is too big of an adjustment. The Knicks go from being 2-point favorites over the Hawks in Game 2 to 5-point underdogs in Game 3, a 7-point adjustment for home-court advantage. This despite the fact that the Knicks have owned the Hawks this season.
Indeed, the Knicks are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Hawks with their only loss coming on a buzzer-beater in Game 1 by two points. The Knicks are the team I trust more in this series because they play great defense and never quit. The Hawks are the more flashy team that gets the attention of the betting public.
But the Knicks have been underrated all season, so that's nothing new. They have gone 46-27-1 ATS in all games this season. New York is 36-15-1 ATS in its last 52 games overall. The Knicks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs. There will be more New York fans here than most realize and it won't be that big of a home-court advantage for the Hawks. Take the Knicks Friday.