15* Suns/76ers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 217

Injuries are going to help us cash this UNDER tonight.  Phoenix will be without Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) and could be without Cameron Payne (8.9 PPG) again.  Philadelphia will be without James Harden (22.0 PPG, 10.0 APG) until December.

These teams both play a style that favors the UNDER as well.  The Suns rank 18th in pace while the 76ers rank 21st.  The Suns are 3rd in defensive efficiency as well.  The 76ers are a much better team defensively without Harden.  They will also be a much slower team to try and run their offense through Embiid now without Harden.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Suns last five road games.  The UNDER is 7-0 in 76ers last seven games following a loss.  The UNDER is 39-19 in 76ers last 58 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in 76ers last six home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -5

The New Orleans Pelicans have just one loss this season when Williamson, Ingram, McCollum and Valanciunas have been healthy at the same time.  That came in overtime on the road at Atlanta on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They have been absolutely dominant otherwise.

Now I expect the Pelicans to make easy work of the Indiana Pacers, who play zero defense and won't have any answers for the offensive firepower of the Pelicans, who also play defense.  The Pacers rank 28th in defensive efficiency while the Pelicans rank 9th.  The Pelicans rank 8th in offensive efficiency while the Pacers rank 18th.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Indiana) -0 off a close home win by 3 points or less in November games are 32-5 (86.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Pelicans are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The Pacers are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Fordham -6

The Fordham Rams are in a good position early in the season with all of their veteran experience returning.  They bring back four starters from a team that went 16-16 last year.  Kyle Neptune leaves for Villanova which is a job he earned, but Keith Urgo was Neptune's right-handed man and is ready for the job with 20 years of coaching experience at Penn State, Villanova and Fordham.

Four players who started at least 17 games last season are back, led by one of the A-10's best guards in Darius Quisenberry (16.2 PPG).  I like Georgia Tech transfer Khalid Moore and 6-8 freshman Elijah Gray.  PG Will Richardson and SG Noah Best will also be key contributors right away.

I'll gladly fade Dartmouth, which looks like the worst team in the Ivy League.  Dartmouth went 9-16 last season and loses four starters from that team, including Brandan Barry (14.6 PPG, 41.1% 3-pointers) and Aaryn Rai (12.3 PPG, 7.2 RPG).  This is clearly a rebuilding year for head coach David McLaughlin, who is 46-92 in his six seasons at Dartmouth.  The Rams are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Take Fordham Monday.

15* CBB Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Kent State ML +100

The Kent State Golden Flashes look like one of the top teams in the MAC this season.  They went 23-11 last season and return four starters from that team.  That includes Sincere Carry (17.9 PPG, 4.8 APG) and Malique Jacobs (12.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG).  They also return their top reserves in Giovanni Santiago (8.6 PPG).

Northern Kentucky also has a decent outlook after going 20-12 last year and returning four starters as well.  But I just think Kent State is the better team and the wrong team is favored.  Kent State won the lone meeting two years ago 92-73 at home.

Common opponents last season also show the Golden Flashes were the better team.  They went 3-0 and outscored opponents by 15.0 points per game, while Northern Kentucky went 2-2 against those same three games and only outscored them by 1.3 points per game.  Kent State beat Eastern Michigan by 19 and 9 and Detroit by 17.  Northern Kentucky only beat Eastern Michigan by 1, and actually lost twice to Detroit last season by 8 and 6 points.  Bet Kent State on the Money Line Monday.

15* CBB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Tennessee -35.5

The Tennessee Vols are ranked No. 11 in the country to start the season and for good reason.  They went 27-8 last season and return four starters from that team in Santiago Vescovi (13.3 PPG), Josiah-Jordan James (10.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG), Ollvier Nkamhoua (8.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) and Uros Plavsic (4.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG), plus Zakai Diegler (8.8 PPG).

The Vols add in the 12th-ranked recruit in the 2022 class in Julian Phillips, a top-100 prospect in B.J. Edwards, a two-time first-team All-MVC performer in Tyreke Key from Indiana State.  The Vols dominated the non-conference last season and I expect them to easily cover this 35.5-point spread in the opener.

Tennessee Tech went 11-21 last season and looks like one of the worst teams in the Ohio Valley this season.  They lost all five starters from that team who all scored at least 7.8 PPG.  Their leading returning scorer averaged 7.5 PPG.  They had a former student manager that was pressed into action last season.  The Volunteers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 non-conference home games.  Take Tennessee Monday.

15* Jazz/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +3.5

The Utah Jazz have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA to start the season.  Everyone thought they were tanking with the Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell trades.  But they had run their course, and it was time for some new faces.  The Jazz got a better haul back in those trades than they are getting credit for.

That has proven to be the case with a 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS start this season with seven outright victories as underdogs.  Newcomers Markkanen (22.2 PPG), Sexton (13.6 PPG), Olynyk (12.7 PPG), Beasley (10.7 PPG), Vanderbilt (9.0 PPG) and Horton-Tucker (7.0 PPG) are gelling nicely with holdovers Clarkson (17.4 PPG) and Conley (11.9 PPG, 7.4 APG).

The Los Angeles Clippers are one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season.  They are 5-4 SU & 3-6 ATS with their five wins coming against the Rockets (twice), Spurs, Kings and Lakers.  Four of those five wins came down to the wire.  The four losses all came by 8 points or more and two came to the Thunder.  

So they have played one of the easiest schedules in the NBA, which makes their poor start even more concerning. The Clippers are without Kawhi Leonard and Luke Kennard tonight as well.  They just aren't that good without Leonard, their best player.  Wrong team favored here.  Take the Jazz Sunday.

15* Blazers/Suns NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 216.5

I love this spot for an UNDER bet.  Portland and Phoenix just played last night with the Blazers pulling the 108-106 upset for 114 combined points.  Now the books have set the total at 216.5 points for the rematch.  Familiarity favors defense and UNDERS, and both teams are tired so they won't be looking to push the tempo.

These teams don't like pushing the tempo, anyway.  Phoenix ranks 26th in the NBA in pace while Portland ranks 23rd.  Both teams have also been good defensively this season as the Suns rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Blazers rank 12th.

Injuries to both teams will also help aid us in cashing this UNDER.  Portland is already without Damian Lillard (31.0 PPG) and could be without Anfernee Simons (22.0 PPG) tonight, their two best players and franchise pieces.  Phoenix could be without both Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) and Cameron Payne (8.9 PPG), two key weapons for them on offense.  All three of those guys are questionable.

The UNDER is 7-0 in Blazers last seven road games.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Blazers last 21 games overall.  The UNDER is 34-16-1 in Suns last 51 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder +8

It's time to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks.  They are the last undefeated team in the NBA at not only 8-0 SU, but 7-1 ATS.  There has been a discount on the Bucks this season because they are missing three key players, which is part of the reason for their ATS success.  But there is no discount tonight.

You're asked to lay 8 points on a Bucks team that is in the worst spot they have been all season.  The Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough a spot as there is in the NBA.  Being short-handed adds to the difficult spot as this is a very tired team right now.

The Thunder are 4-4 SU & 6-2 ATS this season with all four losses coming by 12 points or fewer, so they have been competitive in every game.  They have also faced a much more difficult schedule than the Bucks have so they are battle-tested.  They have outright upset wins over the Clippers (twice) and the Mavericks.  They also took the Nuggets to the wire twice and the Timberwolves to the wire twice.

Oklahoma City is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Thunder are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games overall.  They are consistently catching too many points on the road over the past couple seasons, and that is the case again tonight given the terrible rest spot for the Bucks.  Take the Thunder Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans ML +110

Brandon Ingram (23.0 PPG), Zion Williamson (21.7 PPG), C.J. McCollum (20.6 PPG), Jonas Valanciunas (14.6 PPG) and Trey Murphy III (14.0 PPG) is one of the best starting lineups in the NBA.  When these five have all been healthy at the same time this season, the Pelicans have dominated.  I'll gladly back them as underdogs to the Atlanta Hawks tonight to pull the upset.

The Hawks are 5-3 but have taken advantage of a very easy schedule.  Their five wins have come against Houston, Orlando, Detroit (twice) and New York.  They lost by 17 to Charlotte, by 8 at Milwaukee and by 30 at Toronto.  They are without Bogdan Bogdanovic and Trey Young is questionable tonight with an eye abrasion.  Whether he plays or not, the Pelicans are the better team in this game.

The Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.  Atlanta is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Atlanta is 10-23 ATS in its last 33 games following an upset win as an underdog.  Bet the Pelicans on the Money Line Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toronto Raptors +3.5

The Toronto Raptors are flying under the radar this season.  They didn't make any offseason moves of note and kept their core together.  That core is better than it gets credit for, and the Raptors have a lot of chemistry to start the season as a result.

They have opened 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS with two of their losses coming by 3 and 4 points.  Their lone blowout loss came to Philadelphia after beating the 76ers two days prior, which is understandable in that flat spot.  The Raptors have been without Fred VanVleet in their last two games, and it hasn't matter as they crushed Atlanta 139-109 and San Antonio 143-100.  

Now the Raptors are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 7 days and may get VanVleet back tonight.  They take on a Mavericks team that has been overvalued of late going 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were upset by the Thunder as 10.5-point home favorites, needed a late run to beat the Magic by 9 as 9.5-point home favorites and needed a late run to beat the Jazz by 3 as 6.5-point home favorites.  If those three teams are hanging around with them, I like Toronto's chances of winning this game outright.

The Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Mavericks.  They have great length to be able to defend Luka Doncic about as well as anyone in the NBA can.  Toronto is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Toronto is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games following two or more consecutive wins.  Take the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4

The New Orleans Pelicans get Brandon Ingram back from a concussion tonight and are back to full strength.  Zion Williams missed a couple games earlier this season.  When Ingram (22.0 PPG), Williamson (22.8 PPG), McCollum (20.7 PPG) and Valanciunas (15.6 PPG) are on the floor at the same time, this Pelicans team is a title contender.

Now they will want to prove that tonight by taking down the defending champion Golden State Warriors.  They are in a great spot to do it as the Pelicans had yesterday off and will be playing just their 4th game in 10 days.  They are not only healthy, but rested and ready to go tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Warriors, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after a 129-130 upset loss in Orlando last night.  The Warriors are now 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS this season and the most disappointing team in the NBA.  They have simply quit playing defense this season and are in the midst of a championship hangover that won't end tonight given the terrible spot for them.  The Warriors are allowing 122.2 points per game and 47.4% shooting.

The Pelicans are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss.  New Orleans is also 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -3

The Washington Wizards are fully healthy right now and starting to form some chemistry between Beal, Porzingis, Kuzma, Morris and Barton.  They are coming off a 121-111 road win at Philadelphia and I like their chances of crushing the Brooklyn Nets tonight.

Speaking of chemistry, the Nets have none of it.  Brooklyn is 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS to start the season with the two wins coming at home over the Pacers by 7 and the Raptors by 4.  Five of their six losses have come by 9 points or more so they have rarely even been competitive.

It has gotten worse before it's going to get better.  The Nets fired head coach Steve Nash, and Durant was stunned by the move.  Now Kyrie Irving has been suspended for doing Irving things.  And Ben Simmons, who was supposed to be their savior, is out with a knee injury.  I don't see any way the Nets can even be competitive tonight with Durant and a bunch of scrubs around him.

The Nets are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  Washington is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 home meetings with Brooklyn.  The Nets are 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall.  Washington should be a bigger home favorite over the hapless Nets tonight.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

20* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +3.5

The Indiana Pacers are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with upset road wins over the Nets and Wizards while also covering in a 7-point loss in a rematch with Brooklyn.  Now they have had the last three days off to get their chemistry even better heading into this showdown with the Miami Heat.

Meanwhile, the Heat will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 9th game in 15 days, which is about as difficult a spot as you will see in the NBA.  The Heat are already struggling going just 4-5 SU despite playing six of their first nine games at home.  They are just 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS on the road.

This tough schedule to start the season has the Heat already battling injuries.  They will be without Jimmy Butler tonight, and Bam Adebayo is questionable with a knee injury, so they could be without their two best players.  The Pacers are as healthy as they have been all season and on three days' rest.

The Heat are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  Take the Pacers Friday.

20* Nuggets/Thunder NBA TV No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +7

The Oklahoma City Thunder are the single-most underrated team in the NBA.  They did it last season by being the best covering team in the league despite a poor record.  And they're doing it again this season, opening 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS while consistently catching too many points.

The Thunder were competitive in their three losses falling by 7 as 11-point dogs at Minnesota, by 5 as 9-point dogs at Denver and by 10 as 9.5-point home dogs to Minnesota.  They have won four straight since with three outright upsets over the Clippers by 14 as 5.5-point dogs, the Clippers by 8 as 7-point dogs and the Mavericks by 6 as 10.5-point dogs.  They also beat the Magic by 8 as 3.5-point favorites.

As I stated, the Thunder only lost by 5 as 9-point dogs at Denver.  Now they'll be out for revenge on the Nuggets and are catching 7 points at home in the rematch.  That's not a big enough adjustment for home-court advantage, especially with the way the Thunder are playing right now.  Plus they are expected to get Josh Giddey (12.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 6.3 APG) back after missing the past three games.

The Nuggets are trying to find chemistry getting both Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back from injury this season.  It has been a shaky start with the Nuggets going 4-3 SU & 3-4 ATS including a 21-point loss at Utah, a 25-point loss at Portland and an 11-point loss to the Lakers as they are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in road games.  Murray is only averaging 13.8 points per game and shooting 41.5% from the field so he has been a shell of his former self.

The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Nuggets with losses by 5, 6 and 4 points along with two outright upsets by 12 and 14 points.  Oklahoma City is 35-14-3 ATS in its last 52 games following an ATS win.  The Thunder are 13-1 ATS vs. teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Thunder Thursday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Houston Rockets +6

I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 93-95 road loss to the Los Angeles Clippers as 9-point dogs.  Now they are 6-point home dogs in the rematch, only a 3-point adjustment for home-court advantage and simply not enough for the revenge spot.

The Clippers have been one of the most disappointing, overrated teams in the NBA up to this point.  They are 2-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming by exactly 2 points each over the Kings and Rockets.  They lost three games by 14 points or more and were upset by the Thunder twice.

It's not getting any better for the Clippers tonight as they will be without their two best defenders in Kawhi Leonard and Robert Covington.  They just cannot form any chemistry right now with all of these guys in and out of the lineup.  They cannot be trusted as a 6-point road favorite over the Rockets with the way they've been playing to start the season.  Roll with the Rockets Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +11.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Pistons after a 2-6 start, and to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks after a 6-0 start.  We saw this come to fruition last time out when the Pistons gave the Bucks all they wanted in 108-110 road loss as 13-point dogs.

The Pistons were even playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 128-114 upset home win over the Warriors as 7.5-point dogs the night prior to playing Milwaukee.  That makes sense the line adjustment in the bad spot for the Pistons.  But now this line is 11.5 and both teams are on equal rest.

I'll gladly take the 11.5 points with the Pistons in this revenge spot.  It's a letdown spot for the Bucks, who are feeling fat and happy about being undefeated right now and won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Pistons for the 2nd time in 3 days.  The Bucks are still without Middleton, Connaughton and Ingles and cannot be this big of a favorite against almost anyone without them.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Milwaukee) - a winning team from last season off four or more consecutive wins are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on road teams (Detroit) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent are 41-15 (73.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Milwaukee is 13-32 ATS in its last 45 games following three or more consecutive home wins.  The Pistons are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games overall.  Take the Pistons Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +7

The Sacramento Kings have been undervalued since their 0-4 start against quality competition in which they were competitive in three of the four games.  They came back and upset the Heat as 4-point home underdogs and then won and covered at Charlotte.

I backed the Kings in both of those games, and I'm back on them again tonight in what is a very favorable spot for them.  While the Kings had yesterday off, the Heat just beat the defending champion Warriors 116-109 last night.

Not only is this now a letdown spot for the Heat, but they are also a very tired team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days.  They could choose to rest some players tonight as this is as tough a spot as you will ever see in the NBA.  That's why I'm not concerned the Kings will be without De'Aron Fox, plus they came back from 15 points down at halftime to beat the Hornets by 7 without Fox in the 2nd half.

The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.  Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Sacramento is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Heat OVER 226

Two teams that have taken massive steps back defensively this season square off tonight in what should be a shootout in Miami.  The Warriors are clearly suffering a championship hangover and not playing defense, while the Heat lost their defensive leader in PJ Tucker to the 76ers in the offseason.

Golden State ranks just 21st in defensive efficiency allowing 112.4 points per 100 possessions.  Miami hasn't been much better, ranking 20th in allowing 110.4 points per 100 possessions.  And the Warriors play a lot of possessions as they rank 1st in the NBA in pace, while Miami has upped the tempo a little this season to 12th in pace.

The OVER is 6-0-1 in Warriors' seven games this season with combined scores of 232 or more points in all seven games.  They are scoring 118.7 points per game and allowing 122.0 points per game on the season.  Miami's last two games have seen 232 and 233 combined points coming into this one.

Miami is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games vs. Pacific Division opponents.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Miami.  The OVER is 43-21 in Heat last 64 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Bulls/Nets TNT No-Brainer on Chicago ML +110

I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They will be highly motivated for a victory following two consecutive losses.  They have had the last two days off to get rested and ready to take down the Brooklyn Nets after last playing on Saturday.

Taking down the Nets has not been a problem this season.  Brooklyn is 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS with its lone wins both coming at home over the Raptors by 4 and the Pacers by 7.  They have four losses by 9 points or more this season and just aren't forming any chemistry with Simmons, Durant and Irving.

Now the spot is a terrible one for the Nets, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They could choose to rest some players tonight.  Either way, the Nets rank dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 117.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Bulls will be able to do whatever they want to offensively.

Brooklyn is 6-32 ATS in its last 38 games as a home favorite.  The Nets are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a good 3-point shooting team that makes at least 36% of their attempts.  Brooklyn is 13-37-1 ATS in its last 51 home games overall.  Take the Bulls Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Nets OVER 236

Two teams that like to push the tempo and play little defense square off tonight when the Indiana Pacers visit the Brooklyn Nets.  The Pacers rank 1st in the NBA in pace this season while the Nets rank 10th.

Both teams are really struggling to start the season because they don't play defense.  Indiana ranks 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 117.1 points per 100 possessions.  Brooklyn ranks 29th in defensive efficiency, allowing 117.8 points per 100 possessions.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Nets and Pacers with combined scores of 241, 260, 250, 203, 243 and 239 points with none of those games going to overtime.  Those 260 and 250-point efforts came in their final two meetings last season, and they just combined for 241 points in their first meeting this season.

The OVER is 11-3 in Pacers last 14 games overall.  The OVER is 23-5-1 in Nets last 29 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5

The Sacramento Kings were undefeated in the preseason under first-year head coach Mike Brown, one of the best hires of the offseason.  But they got off to an 0-4 start to the regular season with three close losses to the Blazers, Clippers and Warriors.

The Kings finally got on the board with a win in a 119-113 home win over Miami last time out to get their swagger back.  And now they are fresh and ready to go as they head to Charlotte to take on the worst opponent they have faced yet this season.  While the Kings will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days, the Hornets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight.  

It's a terrible spot for the Hornets, who just upset the defending champion Warriors as 10-point underdogs.  It's now a letdown spot for them as they won't be nearly as motivated to face the Kings tonight.  Making matters worse is the Hornets will be without their two starting guards in La'Melo Ball and Terry Rozier, while the Kings are fully healthy.

The Kings are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Charlotte) - a good offensive team scoring 118 or more points per game, in the first half of the season are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Kings Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Suns OVER 227

The Phoenix Suns are really clicking offensively this season.  They rank 4th in offensive efficiency at 114.4 points per 100 possessions.  They followed up a 134-105 win over the Warriors with a 124-111 win over the Pelicans.  De'Andre Ayton was injured early in that win over the Pelicans and will miss this game, so the Suns will have to play more of a small ball lineup, which benefits the OVER.

The Houston Rockets are once again terrible defensively this season and play at a fast pace.  The Rockets rank 23rd in defensive efficiency allowing 113.6 points per 100 possessions.  They rank 5th in pace at 105.2 possessions per game.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Rockets and Suns with combined scores of 241, 245, 204, 234, 246 and 263 points with none of those games going to overtime.  As you can see, five of the last six meetings have seen 234 or more combined points.  

The OVER is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings in Phoenix.  The OVER is 8-1 in Rockets last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs are both off to 4-2 starts this season.  The difference is the Timberwolves are a real contender in the West, while the Spurs are a pretender.  This surprising start will be forgotten pretty quickly when the Spurs come back down to reality.

San Antonio has caught a lot of teams sleeping on them and taken advantage.  The Timberwolves will not be sleeping on them.  They were one of the teams that were upset by the Spurs 106-115 at home as 8.5-point favorites.  But they came back and pounded the Spurs 134-122 as 9.5-point favorites in the rematch two days later.  And now they won't be taking them lightly, plus we are getting a better value on them as only 5.5-point favorites in this 3rd meeting when the Spurs won't have much home-court advantage.

Also, San Antonio won't have its second-best player in Devin Vassell, who averages 19.8 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game this season.  They could also be without Josh Richardson, who is averaging 11.7 points per game and making 45.2% from 3-point range.  He is questionable for this one.  Either way, the Timberwolves will win this game going away.

Minnesota owns San Antonio.  The Timberwolves are 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Spurs with all seven victories coming by 6 points or more.  Minnesota is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 Sunday games.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Nets OVER 236

Two teams that like to push the tempo and play little defense square off tonight when the Indiana Pacers visit the Brooklyn Nets.  The Nets rank 5th in the NBA in pace this season while the Pacers rank 11th.

Both teams are really struggling to start the season because they don't play defense.  Indiana ranks dead last in defensive efficiency, allowing 117.1 points per 100 possessions.  Brooklyn ranks 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 116.5 points per 100 possessions.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Nets and Pacers with combined scores of 260, 250, 203, 243 and 239 points with none of those games going to overtime.  Those 260 and 250-point efforts came in their final two meetings last season, and it should be more of the same in their first meeting of 2022-23.

The OVER is 10-3 in Pacers last 13 games overall.  The OVER is 22-5-1 in Nets last 28 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Sacramento Kings +4.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Sacramento Kings after an 0-4 start this season.  They are much better and more talented than they have shown to this point after going unbeaten in the preseason.  They just haven't been able to put it all together yet.  It's only a matter of time, and I expect the Kings to pick up their first win of the season tonight.  They were competitive in three of their four losses to the Blazers, Clippers and Warriors.

It's a great spot for the Kings as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  They are fully healthy with the starting five of Fox, Murray, Heurter, Sabonis and Barnes all averaging double-figures scoring.  Murray is starting to show why he was among the favorites to win Rookie of the Year, averaging 17.7 points per game on 51.3% shooting and 41.7% from 3-point range.  Fox has taken his game to the next level averaging 30.5 points per game.

It's a terrible spot for the Miami Heat, who will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and their 6th game in 9 days overall.  They are coming off a loss to the defending champion Warriors, and it will be hard for them to be as motivated to face the Kings as they were the Warriors.  The Heat are just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS this season and have been a major disappointment.  They have really slipped defensively with the loss of PJ Tucker, their leader on that end of the court.

The Heat are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Kings are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Sacramento is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 Saturday games.  The Kings are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Sacramento.  Roll with the Kings Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia 76ers ML -115

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Philadelphia 76ers.  They have opened 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS through their first five games while being favored in four of those five games.  Now we are getting them at basically even money here against the Toronto Raptors.

Not only will the 76ers be motivated from this poor start, they'll also be out for revenge from a 109-119 loss at Toronto on Wednesday.  Now they get their shot at revenge just two days later here on Friday.  Toronto is not going to shoot 54.8% again like they did in that first meeting.

Toronto is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 home games following a win by 10 points or more.  The Raptors are 0-9 ATS in their last nine home games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Philadelphia) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, off an upset loss as a favorite are 50-21 (70.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the 76ers Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +7

I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 113-118 home loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday.  Now they get to host the Hawks again here two days later and are 7-point underdogs in the rematch.  They will want it more tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pistons coming off four consecutive losses overall.  Three of those losses came on the road.  They are 1-1 at home this season with that 5-point loss to the Hawks being their lone defeat.  They are very healthy right now, while the Hawks are playing without Bogdan Bogdanovic.

This Hawks team is getting a lot of love for a 3-1 start against arguably the easiest schedule any team has faced this season.  They have played three home games against Houston, Orlando and Charlotte plus that road game at Detroit.  They lost by 17 to the Hornets and were in competitive games with both Orlando and Houston as well.

Atlanta is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games following a win by 6 points or less.  The Hawks are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 road games.  The Pistons are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS win.  Detroit is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings with Atlanta.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Pistons Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +3.5

I love the spot for the Sacramento Kings tonight.  They will be highly motivated for their first victory of the season after opening 0-3 SU but 2-1 ATS, so they have been competitive.  They also come in on three days' rest having last played on Sunday.

That extra rest and practice time is huge for this young team and first-year head coach Mike Brown, who led the Kings to a perfect preseason.  They are loaded with talent and that has shown even in the losses.  They lost by 7 at home to Portland after blowing a 7-point lead late.  They lost by 2 to the Clippers as 2.5-point home dogs, and they lost by 5 at Golden State as 10-point road dogs.

This is a terrible spot for the Grizzlies.  They will be feeling fat and happy after a 134-124 home win over the Brooklyn Nets.  They are off to a 3-1 start this season and it's a good time to 'sell high' on them.  They needed OT to beat the Knicks at home, only won by 7 at Houston after outscoring the Rockets by 12 in the 4th quarter, failing to cover as 7.5-point favorites.  And they lost badly 96-137 at Dallas as 6-point dogs.  

The Grizzlies are without Jaren Jackson Jr, Zaire Williams and Danny Green and it has really shown defensively as they rank 27th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  Memphis is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win.  Sacramento is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games after allowing more than 125 points in its previous game.  The Kings are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games playing on three or more days' rest.  Bet the Kings Thursday.

15* Mavs/Nets NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Dallas ML -120

I love the spot for the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  They are 1-2 this season with their two losses coming by a combined 4 points to the Pelicans and Suns.  They also crushed the Grizzlies 137-96 in between.  They took the Pelicans lightly last time out because they were without both Ingram and Williamson, and now they come back motivated for a victory tonight.

While the Mavericks are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, the Nets are a tired team right now.  They will be playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days.  After losing 124-134 to the short-handed Grizzlies in Memphis on Monday, they lost 99-110 to the short-handed Bucks in Milwaukee on Wednesday.  Now they are back home Thursday playing a Mavericks team that isn't short-handed.

The Nets are now 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS this season after also losing by 22 to the Pelicans at home in the opener.  Their lone cover came in a 4-point home win over the Raptors as 2.5-point favorites.  This team is still searching for chemistry with Irving, Durant and Simmons, and the fact of the matter is they don't have much help outside those three.  The Nets are also a terrible team defensively and that's not going to change with this personnel, which is why they cannot be trusted no matter how much offensive talent they have.

The addition of Christian Wood makes the Mavericks even more dynamic on offense.  Wood is averaging 24.3 points and 8.7 rebounds per game in just 26 minutes per game for the Mavericks.  Doncic is playing at an MVP level with 34.7 points per game, 9.0 rebounds per game and 7.7 assists per game.  Spender Dinwiddie is filling in nicely for Jalen Bruson, averaging 18.0 points and 3.3 assists per game.

The Mavericks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Dallas is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 road games following an upset loss as a favorite.  Brooklyn is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make at least 36% of their attempts.  The Nets are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.  Take the Mavericks Thursday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves -9

I love the spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 106-115 upset loss as 8.5-point home favorites to the San Antonio Spurs on Monday.  Now they get to face the Spurs at home just two days later and are 9-point favorites in the rematch.  

The books haven't adjusted enough for the revenge factor, plus the injury to San Antonio's best player in Devin Vassell, who is doubtful for this one.  Vassell is averaging 19.8 points, 5.0 rebound and 4.5 assists per game this season.  He had 23 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists in that win over the Timberwolves while making five 3-pointers.  The Spurs have no chance of keeping this game competitive without him.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Spurs, who are coming off three straight upset road wins over the Pacers, 76ers and Timberwolves.  I think those teams took them lightly after all the offseason media attention they got about tanking, plus the 27-point loss to Charlotte in the opener.  Minnesota will not be taking them lightly tonight.

The Timberwolves are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Spurs.  They won all three meetings last season by 6, 10 and 25 points.  They'll get back to dominating this head-to-head series tonight, especially in revenge mode and with the Spurs missing Vassell.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

20* Mavs/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on OVER 219.5

The Dallas Mavericks are playing a lot faster this season as they rank 10th in the NBA in pace.  Luka Doncic and Spencer Dinwiddie are looking to push it more than Jalen Brunson did.  And the addition of Christian Wood makes the Mavericks dynamic on offense.  Wood is averaging 25.0 points per game and the Mavericks rank 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency.

The Pelicans rank 6th in the NBA in pace this season.  They are also 4th in offensive efficiency.  I know they will be without Brandon Ingram tonight, but this total has been adjusted down because of it.  The Pelicans are still loaded on offense even without him, and I think they can do their part in getting us this OVER.

Both meetings in New Orleans last season went well OVER the total.  They combined for 243 and 246 points in the two meetings in New Orleans.  The OVER is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in New Orleans.  The OVER is 7-1 in Mavericks last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 5-0 in Pelicans last five home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Nets/Grizzlies Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 232

The Memphis Grizzlies are expected to be without their two best defenders in Jaren Jackson Jr. and Dillon Brooks tonight.  Jackson will be out until Christmas, while Brooks should make his return soon.  But the Grizzlies have been atrocious defensively this season thus far and have had to play small ball and try and outscore the opposition.

The Grizzlies rank 26th in defensive efficiency.  They are allowing 114.5 points per 100 possessions.  They have been playing at a fast pace this season ranking 5th in the NBA in pace.  After combining for 251 points with the Rockets, the Grizzlies just combined for 233 points with the Mavericks last time out.

The Nets will get up and down with the Grizzlies here as they rank 9th in the NBA in pace.  They are forming better chemistry with each passing game and just got a key role player in Joe Harris back and could get back their other sharp shooter in Seth Curry tonight.  This team will be tough to tame on offense when Durant, Irving, Simmons, Harris and Curry are all on the floor at the same time.  They'll still be terrible defensively, though.  The Nets rank 27th in defensive efficiency, allowing 115.2 points per 100 possessions.

The Grizzlies beat the Nets 132-120 for 252 combined points in their final meeting last season.  The OVER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings, including 4-0 in the last four meetings in Memphis.  The OVER is 10-1 in Memphis last 11 home games following a division game.  Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/76ers OVER 228

Indiana Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle is an offensive guy that pays little attention to defense.  We saw how much the Mavericks improved on defense last season with the switch from Carlisle to Kidd despite having basically the same roster.  The Mavericks finished 6th in defensive efficiency last season after fishing in the 17th under Carlisle.

Last year, Indiana finished 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 113.9 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Blazers and Rockets were worse.  The Pacers will go as far as Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield and rookie Bennedict Mathurin take them.  Those three are playing well to start the season, but the Pacers are without their two best big men in Myles Turner and Daniel Theis, so they have had to go small ball.

We saw how that worked out two games back when the Pacers lost 134-137 to the Spurs for 271 combined points.  Then on Saturday they beat the Pistons 124-115 for 239 combined points.  Indiana ranks 1st in the NBA in pace at 108.4 possessions per game.  They are 11th in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency as well.

Philadelphia is going to be ready to blow the doors off the Pacers.  They have opened 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS.  Look for them to continue trying to poor it on late as they try and pick up their first win of the season.  The 76ers are 20th in defensive efficiency this season, which has been their biggest problem.  They just gave up 114 point to the lowly Spurs while getting upset as 13.5-point favorites.  They also allowed 126 points to the Celtics in their opener.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  The Pacers and 76ers have combined for 229 or more points in six of those seven meetings.  They combined for 253, 253 and 231 points in their final three meetings last season, respectively.  The OVER is 9-1 in Pacers last 10 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Suns/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 219.5

The Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Clippers are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season.  They also aren't looking to push the pace, especially with Chris Paul running the show for the Suns.  And now the Clippers trying to form some chemistry with Leonard, Wall, George and company all back healthy.  

Phoenix ranks 28th in pace through two games while the Clippers rank 16th.  The Clippers are also 3rd in defensive efficiency while the Suns are 14th.  The Suns are 29th in offensive efficiency while the Clippers are 27th.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Suns and Clippers with combined scores of 222, 199, 195 and 206 points.  In fact, seven of the last nine meetings between the Suns and Clippers have seen 218 or fewer combined points with the UNDER going 7-2 in those meetings.

The UNDER is 35-17-1 in Suns last 53 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Suns last 10 games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Los Angeles.  Phoenix is 12-1 UNDER in its last 13 games following a road loss.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -8.5

The New Orleans Pelicans battled back from a 3-16 start last season to win two play-in games against the Spurs and Clippers before giving the top-seeded Suns a six-game series.  They are a team on the rise and will be even better this season.

They played better than .500 ball after trading for C.J. McCollum last season.  He, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas are back.  Zion Williamson is finally healthy to start the season and looking like he's in the best shape of his life.  Ingram, McCollum and Williamson have all averaged at least 23 points per game in their careers.

The Pelicans opened the season with a 130-108 road win at the Nets as 3-point underdogs to get off and running this season.  Ingram had 28, Williamson 25 and McCollum 21 to lead the way as these guys are all gelling already.  They also got 15 points from Valanciunas and 16 from Trey Murphy III.

New Orleans came back with another 124-112 road win over the Hornets to cover as 7-point favorites.  Valanciunas had 30 points, Ingram 28, McCollum 21 and Williamson 16 in the win.  Now the Pelicans get to play their first home game, and fans will sell out the building in anticipation of getting to see Williamson back healthy.  It's going to be a raucous atmosphere in New Orleans tonight.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Jazz, who are coming off two shocking upset wins over the Nuggets and Timberwolves to start the season.  Many expected the Jazz to be one of the worst teams in the NBA after trading away basically everyone but Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson.  While there is more talent on this team than they got credit for to start the season, they won't be able to hang with this Pelicans team tonight on the road in this atmosphere.  Utah is 7-20-1 ATS in its last 28 road games.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +9

This is a great spot to fade the Denver Nuggets.  They are coming off a 128-23 upset win at Golden State as 5-point underdogs last night.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days and won't have much left in the tank for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.

The Thunder are rested coming in on two days' rest after last being seen hanging tough with the Minnesota Timberwolves in a 108-115 road loss as 10.5-point underdogs on Wednesday.  The Thunder were the best covering team in the NBA last season as they were way more competitive than most expected.  They lost a lot of close games, and if they lose this one it won't be by double-digits.

The Thunder have had the Nuggets' numbers in recent meetings.  They have gone 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with the two losses coming by 4 and 6 points.  They also upset the Nuggets by 12 outright as 15.5-point dogs and by 14 as 6.5-point dogs.

The Thunder are 28-11 ATS in their last 39 road games.  Oklahoma City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games playing on two days' rest.  The Thunder are 33-15-3 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS win.  The Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Denver is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Roll with the Thunder Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Pacers OVER 229

Indiana Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle is an offensive guy that pays little attention to defense.  We saw how much the Mavericks improved on defense last season with the switch from Carlisle to Kidd despite having basically the same roster.  The Mavericks finished 6th in defensive efficiency last season after fishing in the 17th under Carlisle.

Last year, Indiana finished 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 113.9 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Blazers and Rockets were worse.  The Pacers will go as far as Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield and rookie Bennedict Mathurin take them.  Those three are playing well to start the season, but the Pacers are without their two best big men in Myles Turner and Daniel Theis, so they have had to go small ball.

We saw how that worked out last night when the Pacers lost 134-137 to the Spurs for 271 combined points.  I'm shocked this total is in the 220's as the Pacers are the ultimate 'OVER' team, playing at a fast pace and playing little defense.  Now they face another young, up and coming team in the Pistons that will enjoy getting up and down the floor with them.  The Pistons just gave up 130 points to the Knicks last night, who aren't known for being an offensive juggernaut.

The Pistons and Pacers combined for 238 and 235 points in two of their final three meetings last season.  The OVER is 6-0 in Pistons last six games overall.  The OVER is 8-1 in Pacers last nine games overall.  The OVER is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 home games.  The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Indiana.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards ML -115

The Washington Wizards have a healthy Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis to start the season.  Porzingis flashed his massive potential with 22.1 points and 8.8 rebounds per game in 17 games with the Wizards after getting traded last season.  They added a true PG in Monte Morris from Denver, while also getting instant offense from Will Barton of the Nuggets.

It was an impressive 114-107 road win for the Wizards over the Pacers in their opener.  Beal had 23 points, Kyle Kuzma 22, Porzingis 15 and Barton 17 in the opener.  They held the Pacers to just 40% shooting for the game behind a great defensive effort as well.

The Bulls are a potent team when healthy, but that's not the case to start the season.  They were terrible after losing Lonzo Ball last season, and he remains out to start this season.  They are also without Zach LaVine Friday.  The Bulls are getting respect for their upset win at Miami in the opener, but Miami isn't as strong this season, and DeRozan isn't going to shoot as well as he did when he had 37 points on 14-of-22 shooting to lead the upset.  Roll with the Wizards Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans -7

The New Orleans Pelicans battled back from a 3-16 start last season to win two play-in games against the Spurs and Clippers before giving the top-seeded Suns a six-game series.  They are a team on the rise and will be even better this season.

They played better than .500 ball after trading for C.J. McCollum last season.  He, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas are back.  Zion Williamson is finally healthy to start the season and looking like he's in the best shape of his life.  Ingram, McCollum and Williamson have all averaged at least 23 points per game in their careers.

The Pelicans opened the season with a 130-108 road win at the Nets as 3-point underdogs to get off and running this season.  Ingram had 28, Williamson 25 and McCollum 21 to lead the way as these guys are all gelling already.  They also got 15 points from Valanciunas and 16 from Trey Murphy III.

The Charlotte Hornets are without LaMelo Ball to start the season.  They go as he goes, especially offensively.  Points will be hard to come by for the Hornets until he returns as he averaged 20.1 points and 7.6 assists per game last season.  They are also missing Miles Bridges, who was charged with three counts of domestic violence.  He averaged 20.2 points per game and 7.0 rebounds per game last season.

I do like the re-hiring of Steve Clifford, who was the head coach of the Hornets from 2013 to 2018.  He says he wants to keep the up-tempo offense, but that's going to be hard without Ball tonight.  Charlotte averaged just 98.8 points per game in the preseason.  Their 129-102 win over the Spurs in the opener was more to do with San Antonio being the worst team in the NBA than anything.  They will get exposed here in this big step up in class, while the Pelicans take a big step down in competition after facing the Nets.

New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in its last six trips to Charlotte.  Take the Pelicans in a blowout Friday.

20* Clippers/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are among the favorites to win the NBA title this season for good reason.  Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are back healthy together.  But they are loaded with depth as well by adding John Wall to go along with Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris, Ivaca Zubac, Norman Powell, Luke Kennard, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington and Terrence Mann.  No team has two bigger stars together, and no team has more depth than the Clippers.

The Lakers missed the playoffs last year and I wouldn't be surprised if they miss the playoffs again this season.  Anthony Davis and LeBron James cannot stay healthy, and they don't have the help around them they need.  Both are already banged up.  They will be starting alongside Russell Westbrook, Patrick Beverly and Lonnie Walker IV.

Westbrook is a terrible fit for this team because he needs the ball in his hand so much and can't make open shots.  In fact, the Lakers are probably the worst shooting team in the NBA this season.  They have no depth with Austin Reaves, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Damian Jones and Kendrick Nunn their top options off the bench now with key 6th man Dennis Schroder out with an injury.

The Lakers lost 123-109 to the Warriors in their opener.  They shot just 43% as a team and committed 21 turnovers.  That includes 10-of-40 (25%) from 3-point range.  Teams can continue to sag into the paint and force them to try and beat them from 3, which they cannot do.

The Clippers are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Lakers.  They one-sided nature of this series continues tonight with a blowout victory by the Clippers.  Bet the Clippers Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings -1.5

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA heading into the 2022-23 season due to not making the playoffs for 16 consecutive seasons.  They have a great chance to end that drought as they hired Mike Brown, who was the top assistant with the Golden State Warriors and has plenty of experience.  It was probably the best hire of the offseason.

Brown has loads of talent to work with as De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Harrison Barnes and rookie Keegan Murray lead the way.  I know Murray will miss the opener, but I still believe the Kings have what it takes to get the job done.  No team was more impressive in the preseason than the Kings, who went 4-0 while outscoring opponents 117.3 to 89.8, or by an average of 27.5 points per game.   They added SG Kevin Huerter, and the depth is good with Malik Monk, Terence Davis, Richaun Holmes, KZ Okpala and Davion Mitchell coming off the bench.

I like Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons for the Blazers.  The problem is they don't have much help outside of those three.  That was evident last year when the Blazers went 2-21 after the All-Star Break with 11 of those losses by at least 25 points.  They are without Gary Payton II to start the season.  Josh Hart, Nassir Little and Jusuf Nurkic are all replacement-level players who are going to be playing too many minutes with two of them starting.

The Blazers are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games overall.  Portland went 0-4 in the preseason against NBA teams and lost by 30 to this same Kings team.  They also lost by 33 to the Warriors and by 17 to the Jazz, who are terrible.  Chauncey Billups may just be a bust of a head coach even though he has a great reputation.  Take the Kings Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +3.5

The New Orleans Pelicans battled back from a 3-16 start last season to win two play-in games against the Spurs and Clippers before giving the top-seeded Suns a six-game series.  They are a team on the rise and will be even better this season.

They played better than .500 ball after trading for C.J. McCollum last season.  He, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas are back.  Zion Williamson is finally healthy to start the season and looking like he's in the best shape of his life.  Ingram, McCollum and Williamson have all averaged at least 23 points per game in their careers.

The Brooklyn Nets were swept in four games by the Celtics last season and were a major disappointment.  They are getting a lot of respect to start this season, but it's unwarranted.  It's going to take some time for Ben Simmons to gel with Durant and Irving.  And there's not much depth behind those three, especially with their two key role players in Seth Curry and Joe Harris out for the season opener.

Brooklyn is 3-16 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 6-28-1 ATS in their last 35 home games.  Take the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Pacers OVER 227.5

Indiana Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle is an offensive guy that pays little attention to defense.  We saw how much the Mavericks improved on defense last season with the switch from Carlisle to Kidd despite having basically the same roster.  The Mavericks finished 6th in defensive efficiency last season after fishing in the 17th under Carlisle.

Last year, Indiana finished 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 113.9 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Blazers and Rockets were worse.  Now they face a Washington team in the opener that finished 25th in defensive efficiency last season.

The Pacers will go as far as Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield and Myles Turner take them.  They added Rookie of the Year candidate Bennedict Mathurin in the draft.  I think this team will be just fine offensively, but again they don't have many plus defenders.  And Carlisle clearly isn't concerned with them improving on that end.

The Wizards have a healthy Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis to start the season.  Porzingis flashed his massive potential with 22.1 points and 8.8 rebounds per game in 17 games with the Wizards after getting traded.  They added a true PG in Monte Morris from Denver, while also getting instant offense from Will Barton of the Nuggets.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Wizards and Pacers.  They have combined for 256 or more points in six of those eight meetings.  The OVER is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 home games.  The OVER is 7-0 in Pacers last seven games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* 76ers/Celtics 2022 NBA Season Opener on Boston -2.5

There has been a lot of negative media attention surrounding the Boston Celtics this offseason due to the Ime Udoka suspension.  I think there will be value on the Celtics in the early going because of it, especially in the opener as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Philadelphia 76ers.

Now 34-year-old Joe Mazzulla becomes the youngest coach in the league.  I like everything I've heard from him and the players since the suspension and they'll be just fine.  Few teams have a deeper roster than the Celtics, plus they added Malcolm Brogdon who averaged 19.1 points and 5.9 assists last season in Indiana.  They only real key loss is Robert Williams due to injury.

Conversely, there is a ton of hype surrounding the Philadelphia 76ers this offseason.  That's because James Harden finally came into a training camp in shape.  Well, Harden is still past his prime, and it's sad that people celebrate a player actually coming into camp in shape.  Harden is one of the most overrated players in the NBA, in shape or not.  

The 76ers do not have the depth that the Celtics do this season.  And I would take Boston's starting five over that of Philadelphia as well.  The Celtics are loaded with Tatum, Brown, Brogdon, Smart and Horford.  They are going to be tough to tame on offense, and all are plus defenders.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics -3

The Boston Celtics finally lost two games in a row for the first time in these playoffs.  I love their chances of bouncing back in Game 6 tonight and forcing a Game 7 with the resiliency we've seen from this team all playoffs.

The Celtics blew a double-digit 4th quarter lead to the Bucks in Game 5 at home and lost to fall behind 3-2.  They proceeded to win Game 6 in Milwaukee by 13 and Game 7 at home by 28.  They had their chance to close out the Heat in Game 6 at home and lost by 8.  They went on to win Game 7 in Miami.  They are battle-tested in these clutch situations.

The hardest game is the close out game for the Warriors.  The lost their first close out game at Denver by 5.  The blew their first opportunity to close out the Grizzlies in a 39-point road loss.  They also blew their first opportunity to close out the Mavericks in a 10-point road loss.  So, they are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their first close out game in all three series in these playoffs.  They know they have Game 7 at home if need be, so they won't be playing with the same kind of urgency the Celtics will be in Game 6.

A lot went wrong for the Celtics in Game 5, not the least of which was a favorable whistle for the Warriors at home.  I think the Celtics will get the favorable whistle at home in Game 6.  Plus, they aren't going to lose the turnover battle 18-6, and they aren't going to miss 10 free throws again.  Those were the biggest differences in the game.

Boston is 11-1 ATS after scoring 95 points or less this season.  The Celtics are 11-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season.  The Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  Boston is 13-6-2 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Celtics/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on Boston +4

The Boston Celtics have been a very resilient bunch all season and in the playoffs.  Look for them to bounce back following a 10-point home loss in Game 4 that evened the series.  Now they are catching too many points in Game 5 on the road, where they have actually played their best basketball in these playoffs.

The Celtics are 8-3 SU & 8-2-1 ATS in their 13 playoff road games.  They won three out of four in Miami last series, two out of three in Milwaukee and swept the Nets on the road.  They haven't lost two games in a row the entire playoffs.  The Celtics are now 9-0 SU in their last nine games following a defeat.

Boston is 10-2 ATS following a loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Celtics are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss.  Boston is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games when playing on two days' rest.  The Celtics are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 road games.  Boston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 trips to Golden State.  The Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Bet the Celtics in Game 5 Monday.

25* NBA Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Warriors/Celtics UNDER 214.5

Usually as a playoff series goes on the oddsmakers set the totals lower and lower.  Teams become more familiar with one another and it favors defense and low scoring games.  But that hasn't been the case in this series, and thus there's a ton of value on the UNDER 214.5 in Game 4.

The Game 1 total closed 214.5, the Game 2 total closed 213.5 and the Game 3 total closed 214.  So they have been pretty consistent with setting these totals.  They haven't had to lower them because two of the first three games went over the total.  But I have a lot of reasons to believe Game 4 will go UNDER this number.

This series has been played at a very slow pace, and this is likely going to be the slowest-paced game of them all thus far.  The Warriors and Celtics cannot keep shooting this well from 3-point range.  The Celtics are 49-of-113 (43.4%) through three games, while the Warriors are 49-of-122 (40.2%) for the series.

I cashed the Celtics in Games 1 and 3 and the UNDER in Game 2.  I am now 12-0 my last 12 playoff picks involving the Celtics.  I think Game 4 will be played similarly to Game 2 where it was a physical game and refs let them play.  So much is at stake here with the series basically on the line, so this one will be played close to the vest.  The UNDER is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Friday.

20* Warriors/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Boston -3.5

Draymond Green and the Golden State Warriors got away with murder in Game 2.  That's the reason they won that game as the officials simply let them play.  They won't get away with murder in Game 3 in Boston, and thus the Celtics are the better team and will fire back after getting embarrassed.

Boston is 7-0 ATS after scoring 90 points or less this season.  It is coming back to win by 10.4 points per game in this spot.  The Celtics are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games following a road loss by 10 points or more.  They are winning by 10.4 points per game in this spot.  

The Celtics are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  They have been resilient all season, especially in the playoffs.  The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Boston is 7-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Wednesday.

20* Celtics/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 215.5

The Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors played in a shootout in Game 1 with the Celtics winning 120-108 behind a massive 4th quarter.  Game 1's in the playoffs tend to be higher scoring because teams aren't familiar with one another yet.  But the longer the series goes, the more familiar they become and the more it favors the UNDER.

These teams have had two days in between games to game plan after seeing what happened in Game 1.  Both teams played poor defense and lost open shooters with easily correctible mistakes.  There will be fewer defensive mistakes in Game 2, and as a result there's no way both teams shoot as well as they did in Game 1.

The Celtics shot a ridiculous 21-of-41 (51.2%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  The Warriors were 19-of-45 (42.2%) in Game 1.  Neither team is going to shoot as well again, especially the Celtics.  It was actually played at a pretty slow pace, and that slow pace will help us cash this UNDER in Game 2.

These are the top two teams in defensive efficiency this season with the Warriors 1st and the Celtics 2nd, so it's no surprise they made the NBA Finals.  Boston is 11-3 UNDER when playing with two days' rest this season.  Golden State is 7-0 UNDER in home games when playing on two days' rest this season.  The UNDER is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings, including 7-1 in the last eight meetings at Golden State.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Sunday.

20* Celtics/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on Boston +3.5

The Golden State Warriors have been off since May 26th.  That's a full week off and sometimes rest can be a bad thing.  I think that will be the case for the Warriors, who will be rusty now after building up a bunch of momentum in beating the Nuggets, Grizzlies and Mavericks.

I think the Warriors have had an easy path to the NBA Finals.  They avoided the Suns, played two banged up teams in the Nuggets and Grizzlies, and played a Mavericks team that had no answer for Stephen Curry.  The Celtics have the answer in defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart, plus guys like Jaylon Brown can switch on him when Smart is out of the game.

I think the Celtics got the perfect amount of rest they needed.  They had just three days off in between games to let both Smart and Robert Williams heal.  The Celtics have earned their way into the NBA Finals by beating Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and the Nets, the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks, and the top seed in the Miami Heat.  They won Game 7's each of the last two series and appear to be a team of destiny.  They should carry over that momentum into Game 1 today.

The Celtics are the only NBA team with a winning record against the Warriors during this dynasty run.  Boston is 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Golden State.  The Celtics are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 road games, including 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs.  Boston is 8-1 ATS in its last nine trips to Golden State.  Bet the Celtics in Game 1 Thursday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on Boston ML -140

I have gone a perfect 6-0 in this series picking the winning side in all six games.  I am confident Boston is the better team and will win this series, but I'm not willing to lay the current -2.5 or -3.  I will lay the -140 on the Money Line instead, which is something I rarely do but it's warranted here in a game that could come down to the wire.

Give Miami credit for its valiant effort in Game 6 and I had the Heat +9, but I didn't expect them to win outright.  Jimmy Butler refused to lose and scored 47 points after looking terrible the previous two games.  He simply gutted them to a victory.  But that effort will have taken a lot out of Butler, and the Heat are just 6-8 SU & 6-8 ATS after Butler scores 30 points this season.  They are also 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS without Tyler Herro this season.  Their injury report looks a lot worse than Boston's coming into Game 7.

I trust Boston to win this game because of what they have shown in the playoffs thus far.  They swept the Nets, then beat the defending champion Bucks in seven games.  It was the way they won that series that gives me confidence they will come up clutch in Game 7 tonight.  The Celtics blew a double-digit lead at home against the Bucks in Game 5 and everyone left them for dead.  Instead, they went into Milwaukee and won Game 6 108-95 and then won Game 7 at home 109-81.  They are ready for this moment.

The Celtics have had no problems winning on the road in the playoffs, going 6-2 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in playoff road games.  Boston is now 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 road games.  The Celtics are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Miami.  Bet the Celtics on the Money Line in Game 7 Sunday.

20* Heat/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +9

I am a perfect 5-0 in this series cashing the Heat in Game 1, the Celtics in Game 2, the Heat in Game 3, the Celtics in Game 4 and the Celtics in Game 5.  After cashing in the Celtics the past two games, I'm going back with the Heat in Game 6 tonight.

This line has simply gotten out of control.  The Celtics go from being 5 and 6.5-point home favorites in Games 3 and 4 to whopping 9-point favorites in Game 6.  That is too big of an adjustment, and it's an overreaction from the Celtics winning the last two games in blowouts.

The Heat aren't going to only score 80 and 82 points again while shooting 31.9% and 33.3% from the field, respectively.  They will shoot it better, especially from 3-point range where they have gone a combined 15-of-79 (19%) the past two games.  This Miami team has too much pride to go home without a fight as they are a bunch of dogs.  And the injury report came back better than expected for them as they should have almost everyone available tonight.

Miami is 15-6 ATS as a road underdog this season.  Boston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games following two straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit home loss.  Miami is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 trips to Boston.  Bet the Heat in Game 6 Friday.

20* Mavs/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Dallas +7.5

The Dallas Mavericks feel like they are playing on house money.  Everyone counted them out when they were down 3-0 in this series.  They came out relaxed in Game 4 and won 119-109 over Golden State.  Now they will come out relaxed in Game 5 and give the Warriors a run for their money.

Dallas has two very poor shooting games in this series which explains two of their losses.  They had the Warriors by the balls in Game 2 but blew a 14-point halftime lead.  They are much better shooting team than they have shown in this series, and they finally knocked some down in a 20-of-43 (46.5%) performance from 3 in Game 4.

Remember, the Mavericks were down 3-2 to Phoenix and everyone counted them out last series.  They proceeded to crush the Suns at home by 27 in Game 6 and by 30 on the road in Game 7.  They really don't feel like they are out of this series.  I don't think the Warriors were in it mentally in Game 4 with the shooting in Texas and Steve Kerr having such a big reaction to it.  I question their head space in Game 5 as well.  They struggled to close out he Grizzlies last series, and it won't be easy closing out this feisty Mavs team, either.

There's value with the Mavericks when you consider they were 5.5-point road underdogs in Game 1 and 6-point road underdogs in Game 2, and now they are 7 or 7.5-point road underdogs in Game 5.  Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 5 Thursday.

15* Celtics/Heat ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston -1.5

I'm 4-0 in this series cashing the Heat in Game 1, the Celtics in Game 2, the Heat in Game 3 and the Celtics in Game 4.  I am going to fade the Zig Zag theory here tonight and get back on the Celtics for a couple of different reasons, not the least of which is the obvious fact that the Celtics are the better team based on what we've seen so far.

The Celtics are two poor quarters away from sweeping the Heat in this series.  They have been dominant when Robert Williams has played, and he is expected to play tonight.  In fact, the Celtics could be at full strength tonight if Marcus Smart (questionable) plays.

The Heat are really banged up.  Jimmy Butler is going to play but he clearly wasn't himself in Game 4, making just 3-of-14 shots without getting to the FT line once.  He can't be as aggressive as he normally is with the bum knee that forced him to sit the entire 2nd half of Game 3.  Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and P.J. Tucker are all nursing injuries and questionable.  There's rumors the Heat could have some COVID issues as well.

The Celtics are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.  They take control of this series with a win and cover in Game 5 tonight.  Bet with the Celtics Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on Dallas PK

The Dallas Mavericks just haven't gotten anything in this series from players outside Luka Doncic, Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie.  This after they shot their way into the conference finals on the backs of Doncic and their role players hitting open 3's.  They haven't hit those 3's in this series with the exception of Game 2, which they controlled throughout before falling apart in the 4th quarter.

The Mavericks shot just 13-of-45 (28.9%) from 3 in Game 3 and just 11-of-48 (22.9%) from 3 in Game 1.  They aren't going to continue shooting this poorly in Game 4 tonight.  Look for guys like Finney-Smith, Bullock and Kleber to start hitting more of their open looks in this one.  I think this is where it all comes together for the Mavericks as they show their pride for one game and avoid the sweep.

Conversely, I fully expect the Warriors to let down in Game 4 tonight knowing they all but have this series wrapped up.  We saw them let down last series against Memphis when they lost 95-134 as 4-point road favorites in Game 5 with a chance to clinch.

The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Mavericks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Dallas is 38-18 ATS in its last 56 games following a SU loss.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 4 Tuesday.

20* Heat/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Boston -6.5

I'm 3-0 in this series.  I cashed in the Heat in Game 1, the Celtics in Game 2 and the Heat in Game 3.  I'm back on the Celtics in Game 4 and riding the Zig Zag Theory in this series because it's so evenly matched that it works.  The Zig Zag Theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 15-7 SU & 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 instances.

The Celtics gave away Game 3 by committing 21 turnovers and the Heat capitalized, outscoring Boston 33-9 in points off turnovers.  Miami got off to such a strong start that they were able to hold on to a 26-point lead even though it was eventually cut to 1 late in the 4th.  Boston fell short, but they will respond in a big way like they have all season following a defeat.

The Heat won despite Jimmy Butler sitting out the entire 2nd half with knee inflammation.  I can't possibly imagine he's anywhere near 100% two days later after sitting out the most important 24 minutes of the season thus far.  He may play, but he won't be himself.  The Celtics could get back Robert Williams and are otherwise fully healthy for Game 4 tonight.

Boston is 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a loss.  Bet the Celtics in Game 4 Monday.

25* NBA Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Mavericks -2

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 15-7 SU & 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Dallas and Golden State is definitely evenly matched.

I love the spot for the Mavericks Sunday.  Their season is on the line as they are down 0-2.  They didn't show up in Game 1, but they fought hard in Game 2 and showed they could play with the Warriors.  Golden State was just unconscious in the 2nd half and the Mavericks went cold.

Dallas has been much better at home than on the road in the playoffs as their role players have really stepped up to help out Luka Doncic.  Indeed, the Mavericks are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home games while winning those five games by an average of 15.4 points per game.  Dallas is 34-13 SU at home this season as well.

The Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Golden State is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Dallas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Mavericks are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 home games.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 3 Sunday.

20* Heat/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Miami +6.5

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 14-7 SU & 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Miami and Boston is definitely evenly matched.

I cashed in the Heat in Game 1 and came back with an easy winner on the Celtics in Game 2 in this series.  Now I'm back on Miami in Game 3.  This is way too big of an adjustment for the Celtics' 25-point blowout win in Game 2.  The Heat go from being 1-point favorites to 6.5-point underdogs, a 7.5-point adjustment which is too big for home-court advantage.

Boston isn't going to shoot 20-of-40 (50%) from 3-point range again, and Miami isn't going to shoot as poorly (10-of-34, 29.4%) from 3-point range as they did in Game 2.  The Heat have been an extremely resilient team all season and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder off that blowout defeat.

Miami is 16-5 ATS following an upset loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Heat are 15-6 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this season.  Miami is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 trips to Boston.  Bet the Heat in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Mavs/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Dallas +6.5

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 14-6 SU & 15-4-1 ATS in the last 20 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Dallas and Golden State is definitely evenly matched.

It was a tough spot for the Mavericks in Game 1 coming off their Game 7 win at Phoenix.  They were flat and nothing went right.  They shot 36% from the field and 11-of-48 (22.9%) from 3-point range.  Meanwhile, the Warriors shot 56.1% from the field and won in a 112-87 blowout.

But this series will be much more competitive than Game 1 showed.  And now the Warriors go from 5.5-point favorites in Game 1 to 6.5-point favorites in Game 2, which is an overreaction and the wrong adjustment.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Mavericks, who went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Warriors during the regular season.

The Mavericks are 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS following a blowout loss by 20 points or more this season.  Dallas is 38-16 ATS in its last 54 games following a SU loss.  The Mavericks are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Golden State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a SU win.  Bet the Mavericks Friday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on Boston +3.5

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 13-6 SU & 14-4-1 ATS in the last 19 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Boston and Miami is definitely evenly matched.

These have been my two favorite teams to back in the playoffs because I have believed both are underrated.  They are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA as well.  I cashed in Miami in Game 1, but I'm going the other way with Boston in Game 2.

The Celtics were without both Al Horford and Marcus Smart in Game 1.  Well, Smart is back for Game 2 but they will still be without Horford.  I think they can pull the upset here.  Jimmy Butler went off in Game 1 and won't be nearly as efficient.  It's hard to expect the Heat to shoot 30-of-34 from the FT line again, too.  The Heat will be without Kyle Lowry, plus Max Strus and P.J. Tucker are both banged up.

Boston is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games following a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Celtics are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.  Boston is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 trips to Miami.  Bet the Celtics Thursday.

20* Mavs/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on OVER 214.5

Game 1 in a playoff series is a great time to take the OVER.  Teams aren't familiar with one another yet and there tends to be a lot of defensive mistakes and turnovers on offense.  That tends to lead to easy, quick points.

I like the OVER in Game 1 of this series because the Warriors will control the tempo playing at home.  And the Warriors like to get up and down the floor, which is when they are at their best.  Only the Timberwolves and Grizzlies played at a faster tempo than the Warriors this postseason.

Two of the final three meetings in the regular season between these teams went well OVER this 214.5-point total.  They combined for 222 points at Golden State and 235 points at Dallas.  The one that stays under still saw 208 combined points and was due to a terrible shooting performance from the Warriors.

The OVER is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings.  The OVER is 15-5-1 in Warriors last 21 games playing on three or more days' rest.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on Miami -1.5

The spot in Game 1 favors the Miami Heat.  They closed out the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 6 on the road, so they have had the last four days off to rest and recover.  Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics have only one day to rest after beating Milwaukee at home in Game 7 on Sunday.

The Heat have a huge home-court advantage as they are 35-12 SU at home this season, including 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  They have won those nine straight home games by an average of a whopping 17.6 points per game with seven victories by double-digits.

These teams met in a very meaningful game late in the season with home-court advantage on the line and the Heat pulled the 106-98 upset as 5-point road underdogs.  Both teams were pretty much at full strength for that game.  Miami should be the better team in Game 1 tonight given the rest advantage.

Miami is 9-1 ATS following an upset win as a road underdog this season.  Bet the Heat in Game 1 Tuesday.

20* Mavs/Suns TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix -6

Just take the home team in every game in this series and you win.  It has been that simple, and it's going to continue to be that simply Sunday with the Phoenix Suns winning in yet another blowout over the Dallas Mavericks at home in Game 7.

The home team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the six games in this series.  The Suns only won by 7 in Game 1 but were crushing the Mavericks in the 4th quarter before a meaningless comeback late.  They went on to win by 20 in Game 2 and by 30 in Game 5.  The Mavericks won by 9 in Game 3, by 10 in Game 4 and by 27 in Game 6.  The Suns will now have their revenge in blowout fashion and close out this series.

Phoenix is 11-1 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Suns are 7-0 ATS when revenging a loss as a road favorite this season.  Phoenix is 18-7 ATS in the last 25 meetings, including 10-3 ATS in the last 13 home meetings.  Take the Suns in Game 7 Sunday.

25* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bucks/Celtics UNDER 208.5

The longer a series goes on, the more teams become familiar with one another and the more it favors defense and low-scoring games.  That's why it should be no surprise that UNDERS are 54-24 in the last 78 Game 7's in the NBA playoffs.

The Bucks have been the best UNDER team in these players.  The UNDER is 9-2 in their 11 games.  They are scoring just 104.7 points per game and allowing 100.5 points per game.  The Celtics rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season and have been able to hold the Bucks in check.  They can guard Giannis better than any team in the NBA.  Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Sunday.

20* Grizzlies/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +8.5

The Memphis Grizzlies have thrived without Ja Morant all season.  They were 20-5 in the regular season without Morant, and now they are 1-1 in this series without him.  They deserved to win in a 98-101 loss at Golden State as 9.5-point dogs in Game 4, but couldn't hit their free throws.

Everything went right for the Grizzlies in their impressive 134-95 rout as 4-point home underdogs at home in Game 5.  And they won't go down without a fight in Game 6 tonight.  There's no way they should be catching 8.5 points against the Warriors tonight.

The Grizzlies are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 games overall.  Memphis is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Grizzlies are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs.  Golden State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as favorites.  Take the Grizzlies Friday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics +2

Home-court advantage really hasn't mattered in this series.  The road team is 3-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the five games.  After blowing a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter of Game 5, I expect the Boston Celtics to come back pissed off in Game 6 to save their season.

The Celtics alongside the Miami Heat have been the two best teams in the Eastern Conference all season.  It's hard to repeat, and I just think the Bucks are way more vulnerable than they were last season, especially without Kris Middleton.  The Celtics are the more complete team and I trust them more, so this series is going to a Game 7.

The Celtics are figuring out how to score on this Milwaukee defense as they have shot 50% or better in two consecutive games.  The Bucks have shot 43.5% or worse in four of the five games in this series, and that's largely due to being up against Boston's 2nd-ranked unit in defensive efficiency.  Few teams are better equipped to guard Giannis than the Celtics with all of the length they can throw at home and stay in front of him.

Boston is 8-1 ATS in road games against a good team that wins 60% to 70% of their games this season.  The Celtics are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.  Boston is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Milwaukee.  Bet the Celtics in Game 6 Friday.

15* Suns/Mavs ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -1.5

The Phoenix Suns have been the best team in the NBA all season.  They proved they were on another level when they won 110-80 in Game 5.  And now they are ready to close out this series with all the pressure on the Mavericks trying to stave off elimination.

Monte Williams and the Suns have the Mavericks figured out.  They rely so heavily on Luka Doncic, and they need the 'others' to make shots from 3-point range.  That's a lot to ask here with their season on the line.  The Suns can beat you several different ways, and the Mavericks have no answer for DeAndre Ayton inside.

The Suns are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 playoff games as favorites.  Phoenix is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings, including 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Dallas.  Take the Suns in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Heat/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +2.5

The Miami Heat are ready to end this streak of the home team winning every game.  They have been the best team in the Eastern Conference all season.  I trust them to show up tonight and close out this series.  They have the 76ers by the balls right now and will take advantage.

You just don't know what you're going to get from the 76ers on a nightly basis.  Joel Embiid got real banged up in their 120-85 Game 5 blowout loss to the Heat.  He won't be 100%.  James Harden was a no-show and continues to falter in the biggest games.  This is their biggest game of the season, and I don't trust him one bit.  Danny Green is hit or miss as well.

Miami is 21-7 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  The Heat are 17-6 ATS as underdogs this season.  Bet the Heat in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Bucks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 214.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are 8-1 UNDER in their nine playoff games this season.  They are scoring 105.2 points per game and allowing 99.0 points per game in the playoffs.  They miss Khris Middleton on offense, but they have been the best defense in the playoffs thus far without him.

The Celtics and Bucks had combined for just 95 points at halftime in Game 4 and were well on their way to yet another under.  But both teams caught fire in the 2nd half, and that was bound to happen eventually.  But that was an aberration, not the norm in this series and for the Bucks in general.

The Celtics have been one of the best defensive teams all season.  They rank 2nd in defensive efficiency.  The longer a series goes on, the more teams become familiar with one another, and it favors defense.  Also, the Celtics will control the tempo playing at home, which is a preferred slower pace.  The first two games in Boston saw just 190 and 195 combined points.

Normally, a total in an NBA playoff series continues to go down as the series goes on because if favors defense.  But the total was 212 in Game 3 and 213.5 in Game 4.  Now we are getting 214.5 in Game 5.  There's clearly value with the UNDER now.  The UNDER is 11-2 in Celtics last 13 conference semifinals games.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Mavs/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -5.5

The Phoenix Suns were the best team in the NBA all season.  Nothing has changed now with the Mavericks winning both of their games at home to tie this series at 2-2.  The Suns dominated in Games 1 and 2 at home, and they will dominate in this all-important Game 5 as well.

The Mavericks got all the calls at home in their last two games.  They won't get those calls in Phoenix.  Their role players also won't play nearly as well as they did at home.  The Suns will get better efforts from their role players, and Chris Paul will be pissed off after fouling out in Game 4.  A pissed off Paul is a scary Paul.

Phoenix is a perfect 14-0 ATS in its last 14 games when revenging a loss as a road favorite.  It is coming back to win by a whopping 15.8 points per game in this spot.  Phoenix is 17-6 ATS in the last 23 meetings, including 9-3 ATS in the last 12 home meetings.  Take the Suns in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* 76ers/Heat TNT No-Brainer on Miami -3

I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight.  They won Games 1 and 2 with ease at home by 14 and 16 points.  Now they went on to lose both games in Philadelphia with the return of Joel Embiid, and all of a sudden nobody likes the Heat anymore.  I do, and I'll take advantage by backing them as only 3-point home favorites in Game 5 after they were 7.5-point favorites in Games 1 and 2 at home.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings dating back to the regular season.  The Heat have been tremendous at home this season at 34-12 SU.  They have been the best team in the East all season and I still think they are the best team in the East.  They are one of the most disrespected No. 1 seeds in the history of the NBA.

Miami is 18-8 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 points or more this season.  Philadelphia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games.  Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Heat are 42-20 ATS in their last 62 playoff games as favorites.  Philadelphia is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Miami.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* Celtics/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 212

The Milwaukee Bucks are a perfect 8-0 UNDER in all playoff games this season.  They are averaging 104.9 points per game and clearly miss Khris Middleton offensively.  But they are giving up just 96.9 points per game and have been far and away the best defensive team in these playoffs.

The Celtics are scoring 107.6 points per game and giving up 103.7 points per game in the playoffs.  And keep in mind they played the Nets in the first round.  The Celtics rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency and just got Marcus Smart back from injury, the Defensive Player of the Year.

Few teams are built to slow down Giannis and the Bucks like the Celtics are.  They have Horford, Robert Williams and Grant Williams to throw at him.  They have been defending him with size and as a team.  He doesn't get many easy layups against the Celtics like he does against most teams.

Milwaukee is 17-6 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The UNDER is 11-1 in Celtics last 12 conference semifinals games.  The UNDER is 19-6-2 in Bucks last 27 playoff games as favorites.  These teams have combined for 190, 195 and 204 points in the first three games in this series.   Bet the UNDER 212 in Game 4 Monday.

20* Suns/Mavs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 214.5

Most NBA playoff series you see the total get lower and lower as the series progresses.  But that's not the case in this series.  Game 1 was set at 214 and Game 4 is set at 214.5.  I think there's value with the UNDER because of it.

They actually adjusted the total up in Game 2 and Game 3 after the first two games went over the total.  But that was an aberration, especially the Suns shooting 64.5% in Game 2.  These teams came back down to earth in Game 3 with a 103-94 victory by the Mavericks and just 197 combined points.

I like the UNDER in this series more in games played in Dallas.  That's because the Mavericks will control the tempo playing at home, and they rank dead last (30th) in pace this season.  The Mavericks are 6th in defensive efficiency this season while the Suns are 3rd in defensive efficiency.  Game 4 will be played in the half court with the Mavericks controlling the tempo again.

Phoenix is a perfect 10-0 UNDER following a road loss this season.  The UNDER is 21-6-1 in Suns last 28 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 24-5-1 in Mavericks last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 37-15-1 in Mavericks last 53 home games.  The UNDER is 17-7 in the last 24 meetings in Dallas.  Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Celtics/Bucks ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 213

The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks have played in two very low-scoring games in the first two games of this series.  They combined for 190 points in Game 1 and 195 points in Game 2.  Now the total has still been set too high at 213 points in Game 3.

The longer a series goes on, the more teams become familiar with one another.  That makes points harder to come by and favors defense.  Add to that the fact that both teams have had three days off in between games to get ready for Game 3, and it's safe to say they know each other inside and out.

It's also worth noting that both teams shot pretty well in Game 2 and they still only combined for 195 points.  Boston shot 47.5% from the field and made 20-of-43 (46.5%) from 3-point range, setting a franchise record for 3's made in a playoff game.  The Bucks shot 46.6% as a team.  This game was played at a snail's pace with both teams attempting 80 shots or fewer.  That should be the case again in Game 3.  The Celtics also get a Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart back to help them out on that end.

The UNDER is 7-0 in Bucks' seven playoff games this season.  They are allowing just 94.9 points per game and have been the best team in the playoffs defensively.  They are scoring just 105.1 points per game, so it's not like they are lighting it up on offense, and they certainly miss Khris Middleton's scoring.  The Celtics rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency and have been even better when Robert Williams is on the floor, one of the most underrated players in the league due to what he can do defensively.  He stopped Giannis at the rim numerous times in Game 3, and there's not many players who can do that.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Celtics last 11 conference semifinals games.  Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Mavs UNDER 220.5

There is clearly value with the UNDER in Game 3 tonight when you consider the totals from the first two games of this series.  They were set at 214 for Game 1 and 217 for Game 2.  Now we have a total of 220.5 for Game 3 after the first two games went over the total.

We'll take advantage of this value and back the UNDER.  The Suns aren't going to shoot as well as they have in Phoenix, making 50.5% in Game 1 and then a ridiculous 64.5% in Game 2.  The Mavericks probably can't be expected to shoot as well from 3-point range as they have either.

I like the UNDER more in games played in Dallas in this series.  That's because the Mavericks will control the tempo playing at home, and they rank dead last (30th) in pace this season.  They are also 6th in defensive efficiency, while the Suns are 2nd in defensive efficiency and play much slower on the road.  This will be more of a half court game tonight folks.

Dallas is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine home games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 points or more.  The UNDER is 17-8-2 in Suns last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 16-7 in the last 23 meetings in Dallas.  The UNDER is 23-5-1 in Mavericks last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the UNDER in Game 3 Friday.

20* Suns/Mavs TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas +1

The Dallas Mavericks are in must-win mode in Game 3 at home tonight.  This is the series, and I expect their best effort of it thus far.  That should be enough to win this game outright against the Phoenix Suns, who lost two games to the Pelicans last series.

The Suns aren't going to shoot as good on the road as they did at home in the first two games of this series.  They shot 50.5% in Game 1 and won by 7, then shot a ridiculous 64.5% in Game 2 including 13-of-25 (52%) from 3-point range.  They are coming off basically a perfect game, and that's going to be hard to follow up.

The Mavericks will be the team playing with more intensity tonight, while the Suns relax a little knowing they are up 2-0 in this series and in good shape.  And the atmosphere will be much more difficult for them to handle in front of a hostile Dallas crowd.  Jason Kidd has done a tremendous job of coaching this season, and I expect him to make the proper adjustments for Game 3 tonight to slow down this Phoenix offense.

Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a blowout road loss by 20 points or more.  It is winning by 16.4 points per game in this spot.  The Mavericks are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 games following a loss.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 3 Friday.

20* Mavs/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas +6.5

The Dallas Mavericks showed they could play with the Suns in Game 1 when they lost 114-121 as 5.5-point underdogs.  Now they come back as 6.5-point dogs in Game 2 and I like the value we are getting with them in what has to feel like a must-win for them.

We saw the Suns beat the Pelicans 110-99 in Game 1 and come back and lost 114-125 in Game 2 last series.  I think they will be vulnerable tonight after winning Game 1.  I expect the Mavericks to be the team playing with more intensity being down in this series, and that should be enough to stay within this number and possibly pull off the upset.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years.  Indeed, each of the last seven meetings have been decided by 8 points or fewer.  That fact alone shows you there's value with the Mavericks catching 6.5 points tonight as the Suns have had a hard time putting them away, and the Mavericks simply have no quit in them.

Dallas is a perfect 8-0 ATS after a game where it was outrebounded by 15 or more this season.  It is coming back to win by a whopping 16.1 points per game on average in this spot.  The Mavericks are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 2 Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Grizzlies TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +2.5

The Memphis Grizzlies nearly pulled the upset over the Golden State Warriors in Game 1 despite not playing anywhere near their best game.  They shot just 41-of-95 (43.2%) from the field while the Warriors shot 45-of-93 (48.4%).  They only lost that game 116-117 and had a chance to win at the buzzer.

Look for the Grizzlies to bounce back with a victory in Game 2 tonight.  This has been a very resilient bunch all season.  In fact, the Grizzlies haven't lost more than two in a row since December, which just goes to show how resilient they are.  Memphis is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games following a loss.

The Grizzlies are 8-1 ATS in as a home underdog of 6 points or less this season.  The Grizzlies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Memphis is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 home games.  The Grizzlies are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games overall.  Golden State is 0-4 ATS in its last four trips to Memphis.  Take the Grizzlies in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Bucks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Boston -4

The Boston Celtics shot 28-of-84 (33.3%) in Game 1.  That's not going to happen again.  There was clearly a rust factor for them after sweeping the Nets and being off since April 25th.  Look for them to be much sharper on offense, and for them to bring that same defensive intensity they have played with all season.

The Celtics held the Bucks to 37-of-90 (41.1%) shooting and just 101 points in Game 1.  If they can do that again in Game 2, they are going to win and cover with ease.  And that's what I expect to see happen here as they guard the Bucks as well as anyone in the NBA, and they get going offensively.

Boston is a perfect 9-0 ATS after scoring 95 points or less this season.  It is coming back to win by 9.6 points per game on average in this spot.  Milwaukee is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games as a road underdog.  Boston is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Mavs/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215

The Dallas Mavericks are built for UNDERS.  They rank 30th in the NBA in pace this season at just 97.5 possessions per game.  They are 6th in defensive efficiency as well.  The Suns are 3rd in defensive efficiency, which has been the key to all their success this season.

Both the Mavericks and Suns have had three full days to prepare for one another.  I think that is going to favor the defenses.  Both teams have tremendous wing defenders and points will be much harder to come by for both teams than they were in the first round against the Jazz and Pelicans.

Phoenix and Dallas played three times in the regular season and we saw 203, 216 and 210 combined points in those three meetings.  I think there's value with the UNDER 215 in Game 1 of this series based off those results, especially with defensive intensity turned up a notch in the playoffs.

Dallas is 18-4 UNDER in its last 22 games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or better.  The UNDER is 44-20 in Mavericks last 64 games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings, including 4-1 in the last five meetings in Phoenix.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Suns last seven home games.  Bet the UNDER in Game 1 Monday.

20* Warriors/Grizzlies ABC No-Brainer on OVER 221.5

This is a pretty quick turnaround for this series.  The Grizzlies only had one day off in between games and the Warriors had three days off since taking care of the Nuggets.  These teams aren't familiar with one another yet, and I think that favors the offenses in Game 1 today.

After all, these are the two highest-scoring teams in the playoffs thus far.  The Warriors averaged 118 points per game in their five-game series with the Nuggets and have scored at least 118 points in five of their last six games overall.  They are showing how dangerous they can be when healthy offensively.

The Grizzlies averaged 114.7 points per game in their six-game series with the Timberwolves.  We saw a very high-scoring Game 1 in that series that saw 247 combined points and went well OVER the total.  The Warriors combined for 230 points with the Nuggets in Game 1 last series and went OVER the number.

The OVER is 11-1 in Grizzlies last 12 playoff games as underdogs.  The OVER is 5-1 in Warriors last six games overall.  This 221.5-point total has been set too low for Game 1.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Grizzlies/Timberwolves ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 229

The longer a series goes on the more teams become familiar with one another.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  That has proven to be the case in this series between the Grizzlies and Timberwolves as well.

After combining for 247 points in Game 1, these teams have combined for 220 in Game 2, 199 in Game 3, 237 in Game 4 and 220 in Game 5.  And both teams shot lights out from 3 in that 237-point effort in Game 4 as the Timberwolves were 18-of-36 (50%) and the Grizzlies were 15-of-32 (46.9%).  That's unlikely to happen again.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (Minnesota) - a good offensive team that scores 114-118 PPG against an average defensive team that allows 108-114 PPG) after 42-plus games following a loss by 6 points or less are 32-9 (78%) since 1996.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Grizzlies last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Minnesota.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Friday.

20* Mavs/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 209.5

The Dallas Mavericks made some great adjustments in their first three games of this series without Luka Doncic.  They played a much more free-flowing offense and hoisted a ton of 3's.  Both them and the Jazz shot very well in Games 2 and 3 that both went OVER the total.

But Doncic returned in Game 4 and it was slowed down to a snail's pace.  Both teams attempted fewer than 80 shots in a 100-99 victory for Utah and just 199 combined points.  It was more of the same in Game 5 with the Mavs winning 102-77 for just 179 combined points.  This 209.5-point total for Game 6 has been set way too high.

The Mavericks rank dead last (30th) in pace this season.  The Jazz rank 22nd in pace.  The Mavericks are 6th in defensive efficiency while the Jazz are 10th in that same category.  Donovan Mitchell was noticeably limping as he got hurt late in Game 5.  He is expected to play but won't be 100%, and that's going to significantly hamper the Jazz offensively.  Take the UNDER in game 6 Thursday.

15* Suns/Pelicans TNT ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 214.5

It's a miracle Games 3 and 4 in this series went OVER the total.  The UNDER was the right side in Game 3, but a flurry of points in the final minute sent it over as the Pelicans kept scoring and fouling.  It was 106-97 for just 203 combined points with 45 seconds to play.  Brandon Ingram scored 9 straight points thereafter and the Pelicans ended up losing 111-114 after a 3-pointer at the buzzer for 225 combined points.

The UNDER was the right side in Game 4 as well.  The Pelicans and Suns had combined for 200 points with 2:20 to go in a blowout.  But somehow the backups put up 21 points in that final 2:20 and they finished with 221 combined points.  

I took advantage of an inflated total in Game 5 and cashed the UNDER 215.5 in a game that saw 209 combined points.  Now I'm backing on the UNDER 214.5 for many of the same reasons in Game 6.  The longer a series goes, the more teams become familiar with one another and points get harder to come by.  Points are definitely harder for the Suns to come by without Devin Booker.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (New Orleans) - a poor defensive team that allows 46% shooting or higher, after five straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 47% or higher are 26-8 (76.5%) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the UNDER In Game 6 Thursday.

20* 76ers/Raptors NBA TV No-Brainer on Toronto ML +105

All the pressure is on Doc Rivers, Joel Embiid, James Harden and company.  The 76ers are on the verge of blowing a 3-0 series lead, and if anyone could do it it's Doc.  He is 3-11 in his last 14 close out games including 1-7 in his last eight.  You can tell he's feeling the pressure based off his press conferences, trying to defend himself at all costs.

Realistically, the Raptors should be up 3-2 in this series.  They lost at home in Game 3 despite never trailing in regulation.  They came back with a 110-102 home victory in Game 4 and a 103-88 upset road win in Game 5.  They have all the momentum right now and feel like they are playing on house money.

The loss of Fred VanVleet isn't as big as it's made out to be.  The Raptors are now much longer on the perimeter which is causing the 76ers problems on offense, averaging just 95 points per game in their last two.  Joel Embiid is clearly bothered by his thumb injury, and James Harden just can't be trusted in big games.

The 76ers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last five games playing on two days' rest.  The Raptors are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Raptors on the Money Line Thursday.

15* Bulls/Bucks TNT ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 217.5

The Bulls are broken on offense in this series.  They have scored 81, 86 and 95 points in their three losses.  Now they will be without both Zach LaVine and Alex Caruso tonight.  Both of these guys are great at penetrating and finding open teammates, and they will be even more lost on offense without them tonight.

The Bucks aren't exactly blowing the doors off of the Bulls on offense, either.  They are averaging just 108.3 points per game in this series.  They are without Khris Middleton, and the Bulls have done a pretty good job of defending in this series.  Giannis will continue to get his but they have held mostly everyone else in check.

Milwaukee is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 home games following a blowout road win by 20 points or more.  Chicago is 16-4 UNDER vs. division opponents this season.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Milwaukee.  The UNDER is 4-0 in this series.  Roll with the UNDER in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* Pelicans/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215.5

It's a miracle Games 3 and 4 in this series went OVER the total.  The OVER has hit in three consecutive games now, which is why the books haven't adjusted this total as low as it should be tonight.  We'll take advantage and cash in the UNDER.

The UNDER was the right side in Game 3, but a flurry of points in the final minute sent it over as the Pelicans kept scoring and fouling.  It was 106-97 for just 203 combined points with 45 seconds to play.  Brandon Ingram scored 9 straight points thereafter and the Pelicans ended up losing 111-114 after a 3-pointer at the buzzer for 225 combined points.

The UNDER was the right side in Game 4 as well.  The Pelicans and Suns had combined for 200 points with 2:20 to go in a blowout.  But somehow the backups put up 21 points in that final 2:20 and they finished with 221 combined points.  I have a hard time believing we're gonna get another flurry of points to send this one over the number for a third consecutive game.

Teams become more familiar with one another the longer a series goes on.  That favors defense and low scoring games.  I fully expect this to be the lowest-scoring game of the entire series as we easily cash this UNDER 215.5 in Game 5.  There's a lot at stake here with the series tied 2-2 and this will become a half court game with points at a premium.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -6

I was on the Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 in Game 2 after dropping Game 1 to the Timberwolves.  They delivered with a 124-96 blowout victory.  I'm definitely backing the Grizzlies again here in Game 5 as only 6-point home favorites after dropping Game 4 118-119 as 2.5-point road favorites.  Oddsmakers aren't adjusting enough for the spot for the Grizzlies here.

The Timberwolves shot lights out in Game 4 and still only won by a single point.  They shot 47.3% from the field including 18-of-36 (50%) from 3-point range.  Not to mention, they made a whopping 31 free throws.  They played the perfect game at home in Game 4, but they will be far from perfect on the road in Game 5.

Memphis is 13-2 ATS off a road loss this season.  The Grizzlies are 14-3 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The Timberwolves are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs.  Memphis is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 home games.  The Grizzlies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Memphis is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 home meetings with Minnesota.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Grizzlies UNDER 233

Teams become more familiar with one another the longer a series goes on.  That favors defense and low scoring games.  There's a lot at stake here with the series tied 2-2 heading into Game 5.  I expect points to be at a premium and for this game to be played at the slowest pace of the entire series thus far.

These teams went well UNDER the number in Games 2 and 3.  The Timberwolves and Grizzlies combined for just 220 points in Game 2 and 199 points in Game 3.  Game 4 was well on the way to another UNDER until a flurry of points in the final minutes.  They had combined for just 218 points with 2:45 to play, but combined for 19 points in that final 2:45 to go over the number and finish with 237 combined points.

Now the books have set the number even higher for Game 5 at 233 points and I think there's tremendous value with the UNDER.  Both teams shot lights out in Game 4 and it's unlikely to happen again.  The Grizzlies shot 15-of-32 (46.9%) from 3-points range and the Timberwolves shot 18-of-36 (50%) from distance, yet they still only managed 237 combined points.  Just a slight drop in shooting for both teams will have us cashing in this UNDER with ease.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 230 or higher (Memphis) - after covering two of their last three ATS, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 71-32 (68.9%) since 1996.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Jazz/Mavs TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 213

The Dallas Mavericks made some great adjustments in their first three games of this series without Luka Doncic.  They played a much more free-flowing offense and hoisted a ton of 3's.  Both them and the Jazz shot very well in Games 2 and 3 that both went OVER the total.

But Doncic returned in Game 4 and it was slowed down to a snail's pace.  Both teams attempted fewer than 80 shots in a 100-99 victory for Utah and just 199 combined points.  This game will be played at a snail's pace as well with Doncic back and what's at stake in Game 5 with this series tied 2-2 heading back to Dallas.

The Mavericks rank dead last (30th) in pace this season.  The Jazz rank 22nd in pace.  The Mavericks are 6th in defensive efficiency while the Jazz are 10th in that same category.  Utah attempted 42 free throws and still managed just 100 points last game.  The Mavericks have them locked down defensively right now.

The UNDER is 11-3 in Jazz last 14 road games.  The UNDER is 47-20-1 in Mavericks last 68 home games.  Take the UNDER in Game 5 Monday.

20* Raptors/76ers NBA TV No-Brainer on Toronto +7.5

The Toronto Raptors played two great games in Toronto and really this series should be tied 2-2.  But the 76ers won Game 3 despite not leading a single second in regulation.  And in Game 4 they failed to close out the series when they had the Raptors by the balls.

I think the 76ers are going to regret not closing it out, and the Raptors are live underdogs in Game 5 tonight as 7.5-point dogs.  The FT shooting disparity that gave the 76ers a 2-0 series lead has gone away, and the Raptors have gotten much more aggressive in attacking the rim the past two games.

Joel Embiid is nursing a thumb injury that he is playing through, but he clearly wasn't himself in Game 4.  We've seen Doc Rivers and James Harden collapse in playoff series previously.  All the pressure is on the 76ers to close this out in Game 5 and the Raptors feel like they are free rolling at this point after being down 3-0.  They should come out loose while the 76ers will be tight tonight.

Philadelphia has beaten Toronto by more than 7 points just twice in the last 16 meetings, making for a 14-2 system backing the Raptors pertaining to this 7.5-point spread.  Bet the Raptors in Game 5 Monday.

20* Suns/Pelicans TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 216

The Suns and Pelicans have gone OVER the total in each of their last two games after going UNDER in Game 1.  I think we are getting value with the UNDER in Game 4 based off of the results in the last two games.  This total should be set much lower than 216 tonight.

The UNDER was the right side in Game 2, but a flurry of points in the final minute sent it over as the Pelicans kept scoring and fouling.  It was 106-97 for just 203 combined points with 45 seconds to play.  Brandon Ingram scored 9 straight points thereafter and the Pelicans ended up losing 111-114 after a 3-pointer at the buzzer for 225 combined points.

Game 3 was played at a snail's pace and that will be the case again for Game 4.  The Suns just aren't as explosive on offense without their best player in Devin Booker, and they have to go to more of a half court game.  The Pelicans don't have great 3-point shooting and settle for a lot of mid-range jumpers, which makes them a great UNDER candidate.  They also rank just 21st in pace and 20th in offensive efficiency.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Heat/Hawks TNT No-Brainer on Miami -2

The Miami Heat will come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 4 tonight after blowing a double-digit lead in Game 3 in the 4th quarter and letting the Hawks back in this series.  Look for them to shut the door here and get a win and cover in Game 4.

I made the mistake of backing a team that doesn't rebound or play defense in the Nets yesterday.  I'm not making the same mistake today.  The Hawks rank 26th in defensive efficiency while the Heat rank 5th in defensive efficiency.  I'll back the better defensive team here in a game they basically just have to win to cover.

Atlanta is 1-11 ATS after a win by 6 points or less this season.  Miami is 17-4 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  The Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Miami is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Heat are 39-19 ATS in their last 58 playoff games as favorites.  The Hawks are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games following a win.  Miami is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Heat Sunday.

25* NBA First Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Brooklyn Nets -2.5

The Brooklyn Nets gave the Boston Celtics all they could handle in Games 1 and 2 in Boston.  Now they are in must-win mode here in Game 3 at home and I expect them to get the win and cover.  It was a hostile atmosphere in Boston with all the controversy surrounding Kyrie Irving and they actually handled themselves pretty well.

It will be a much more friendly atmosphere in Brooklyn this time around, and I expect the Nets' role players to answer the bell here to help out Irving and Kevin Durant.  Durant has been disappointing through two games in this series, but he has too much pride to come up short again.  

He went 4-of-17 in Game 2 and 9-of-24 in Game 1.  That's a combined 13-of-41 (31.7%) through two games.  It's amazing that the Nets had a chance to win both of those games in the closing seconds with Durant playing that poorly.  Look for him to have a monster game to lead the Nets to victory and save their season here tonight.

Brooklyn is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home meetings with Boston.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

20* 76ers/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Toronto +3.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Toronto Raptors in Game 4 tonight.  They were 4.5-point road dogs in Game 1, 7.5-point road dogs in Game 2 and 2-point home dogs in Game 3.  They went 0-3 ATS and now are getting their best price of the series as 3.5-point home dogs in Game 4.

Note that they were 4.5-point road dogs at full strength.  They will be at full strength here with the return of Scottie Barnes and are 3.5-point home dogs.  That's a massive adjustment and one that I'll gladly take advantage of.  The Raptors are much better than they have shown in the first three games of this series.

Keep in mind the 76ers didn't lead Game 3 until overtime, so the Raptors were in control of that game even without Barnes.  Getting him back with give them a big offensive punch.  The 76ers will be without Matisse Thybulle, and his defensive presence will be felt.  Joel Embiid is also dealing with a sore thumb, though he's expected to play.

Toronto is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Philadelphia is 9-18 ATS off a road win this season.  The 76ers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing on two days' rest.  Philadelphia is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 trips to Toronto.  Take the Raptors Saturday.

20* Suns/Pelicans ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -1

The Phoenix Suns have proven all season that they can win games without Chris Paul and/or Devin Booker.  They won't blink with Booker being out now as they are one of the deepest teams in the entire NBA and work together as a team as well as anyone.

The Suns go from being 10-point favorites in Game 1 to 9.5-point favorites in Game 2 to only 1-point favorites in Game 3.  This is too big of an adjustment for the Booker injury and the home-court advantage for the Pelicans.  The Suns are 32-9 SU on the road this season.

I'm confident the Suns will make the defensive adjustments and the Pelicans will not shoot as well as they did in Game 2.  They shot 54.8% from the field and a ridiculous 17-of-30 (56.7%) from 3-point range.  This is a poor shooting Pelicans team that is only making 33.5% from 3 on the season.

Phoenix is 8-1 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more more this season.  The Suns are 14-3 ATS when revenging any loss this season.  Phoenix is 14-3 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to New Orleans.

Plays against home underdogs (New Orleans) - off an upset win by 10 points or more as a road underdog with a losing record on the season are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Suns Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Mavericks UNDER 210.5

The Dallas Mavericks rank 6th in defensive efficiency this season.  They rank dead last in pace (30th) this season and prefer to slow it down to a snail's pace.  The Jazz are 10th in defensive efficiency and 26th in pace, so they are built for UNDERS as well.  Plus they have the best defender in the NBA in Rudy Gobert locking down the paint.

The total was 208 for Game 1 and these teams combined for just 192 points.  The total was 207 for Game 2 and they combined for 214 points.  This total has been set higher after that Game 2 performance and with the anticipation that Luka Doncic may return.  Even if he does he won't be anywhere near 100% with that calf injury.

It's going to be hard to see the Mavericks shoot as well as they did in Game 2 where they shot 22-of-47 (46.8%) from 3-point range.  The Jazz weren't bad themselves as they shot 11-of-29 (37.9%) from distance.  Each of the first two games in this series were played at snail's paces, and I think that will be the case in Game 3 again, so I'll take my chances with the UNDER.

The UNDER is 43-19 in Mavericks last 62 games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 23-11-1 in Jazz last 35 games as favorites.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Jazz last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Bulls/Bucks TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago +10

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls in Game 2 of this series.  They were disinterested down the stretch and as a result went 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their final five games.  They were pretty much locked into the 5th or 6th seed at that point with nothing to play for.

The Bulls played with a sense of urgency in Game 1 and showed they could hang with the Bucks, losing  86-93 as 10.5-point underdogs.  What really stood out in that game is how poorly the Big 3 of Chicago in Vucevic, DeRozan and LaVine shot the ball and they still only lost by 7.  Those 3 combined to shoot just 21-of-71 (29.6%) from the floor and 4-of-22 (18.2%) from 3-point range.  They aren't going to shoot that poorly again, which makes it likely they cover this 10-point spread.

Milwaukee likely thinks they can just show up and win after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Bulls in the regular season.  That places the Bulls in major revenge mode here.  Also two of those wins and covers came at the end of the season when the Bucks had a lot more to play for in terms of seeding than the Bulls did.  The first two meetings this season were close and decided by 4 and 6 points, similar to the 7-point margin in Game 1 of this series when both teams were 'all in'.

Chicago is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Chicago is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to Milwaukee.  Take the Bulls Wednesday.

20* 76ers/Raptors NBA TV No-Brainer on Toronto +2

I love the Toronto Raptors tonight in this must-win situation.  They return home after losing two disappointing, non-competitive games against the 76ers in Philadelphia.  Home-court advantage and coaching adjustment will make all the difference for the Raptors in Game 3 as they win this game outright.

Everything has gone perfect for the 76ers thus far in this series.  They shot 51.2% as a team, 16-of-32 (50%) from 3-point range and 29-of-34 (85.3%) from the FT line in Game 1.  They followed that up with 52.2% shooting, 14-of-30 (64.7%) from 3-point range and 26-of-30 (86.7%) from the FT line in Game 2.

The 76ers are shooting better than the Raptors in this series from 3-point range, and they have attempted 64 FT compared to 35 for the Raptors and made 55 FT compared to 29 for the Raptors.  That has been the difference.  I highly doubt the whistle will go so much in favor of the 76ers in Toronto like it has in Philadelphia in this series.  The 76ers won't have SG Mattisse Thybulle for this one, arguably their best defender.

Toronto is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games following two straight losses by 15 points or more.  The 76ers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs.  a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Toronto is 4-0 ATS In its last four games as a home underdog.  Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Toronto.  Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -6.5

The Memphis Grizzlies will be playing with a sense of urgency tonight after getting upset in Game 1.  A lot went right for the Timberwolves in that contest as they scored 130 points and shot 50% as a team, went 16-of-41 (39%) from 3-point range and 24-of-27 (88.9%) from the FT line.

Things couldn't have gone much worse for the Grizzlies, who shot 7-of-27 (25.9%) from 3-point range and missed 11 free throws.  They will be much sharper offensively in Game 2, and I look for the Timberwolves to take a step back offensively.  Minnesota won't be able to match Memphis' intensity in this one, either.

Memphis won by 7 and 8 points in its first two home meetings with Minnesota this season.  I look for the Grizzlies to win by 7-plus points again here to cover this 6.5-point spread, and actually expect them to win by double-digits in a rout.

Memphis is 19-6 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season.  The Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  The Grizzlies are 37-14 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss by more than 10 points.  Memphis is 24-9 ATS in its last 33 home meetings with Minnesota.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.