|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-19-20||Celtics v. Heat UNDER 207.5||Top||117-106||Loss||-105||11 h 2 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 207.5
As we’ve seen all playoffs, as a series goes on points are harder to come by. Teams become familiar with one another and it favors defense. The game slows down to a half court affair almost every time.
The Celtics and Heat combined for 207 points in Game 2, which would be low enough to cash this UNDER. And it’s worth noting both teams shot well, especially the Celtics, who shot 50% from the field and that’s unlikely to happen again. The Heat shot 44.4% as a team.
The UNDER is 6-0 in Celtics last six games following an ATS loss. The UNDER 9-2 in Celtics last 11 games overall. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|09-18-20||Nuggets v. Lakers -7||Top||114-126||Win||100||10 h 20 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles -7
The Los Angeles Lakers are rested and ready to go in the Western Conference Finals. They made easy work of the Houston Rockets in five games, getting better as the series went on. After losing Game 1, they went on to win four straight all by 8 points or more.
The Denver Nuggets just became the first team in NBA history to erase two 3-1 deficits in the same postseason and come back to win the series. They have put a lot of mileage on their tires, and it’s only human nature for them to come out flat in Game 1 tonight.
We saw that last series when they were completely flat in Game 1 against the Clippers. They lost that game 97-120, and we should see a similar result here. The Lakers have won three of their four meetings with the Nuggets this season.
Denver is 4-12 ATS after successfully covering the spreading two or more consecutive games this season. The Nuggets are 8-20 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season. Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. Bet the Lakers Friday.
|09-17-20||Heat v. Celtics UNDER 209.5||106-101||Win||100||8 h 42 m||Show|
15* Heat/Celtics ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 209.5
The Heat and Celtics combined for 212 points at the end of regulation in Game 1. And it took a big 58-point 4th quarter to get there. Look for them to combine for fewer than 209.5 points at the end of regulation in Game 2, so we’ll take the UNDER and hope to avoid overtime.
Both teams shot the ball pretty well in Game 1. The Heat shot 47.1% from the field and were 16-of-36 (44.4%) from 3-point range. That’s not going to happen again. The Celtics shot 44.3% from the field and 15-of-42 (35.7%) from 3-point range. Those numbers are close to their season averages. They also shot 21-of-23 (91.3%) from the charity stripe.
As we’ve seen in the playoffs, as a series goes on, points are harder to come by because teams become more familiar with one another and it favors defense. The books set a 208-point total in Game 1, and now they’ve actually raised it to 209.5, so I think there’s value with the UNDER.
Boston is 13-5 UNDER when revenging a loss as a favorite this season. The UNDER is 7-3 in Heat last 10 games overall. The UNDER is 5-0 in Celtics last five games following an ATS loss. The UNDER is 8-2 in Celtics last 10 games overall. The UNDER is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|09-15-20||Heat +108 v. Celtics||Top||117-114||Win||108||7 h 23 m||Show|
20* Heat/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Miami ML +108
The Miami Heat are now 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in the playoffs. They swept the Pacers and beat the Bucks in five games. They are the real deal, yet they are getting no respect from oddsmakers here as underdogs to the Boston Celtics in Game 1.
This despite the fact that the Heat are the fresher team having a week off to get ready for this game. And all that extra preparation they got leading up to this series, they will be ready for Game 1 tonight with a great game plan from Erik Spoelstra.
The Celtics should still be fresh with three days off in between games, but they did just have to go seven games with the Toronto Raptors. And it’s worth noting the Heat upset the Celtics 112-106 as 4-point underdogs in their lone meeting in the bubble. Bet the Heat Tuesday.
|09-13-20||Clippers v. Nuggets UNDER 215||Top||98-111||Win||100||3 h 39 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Clippers ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 215 We’ve seen this entire 2nd round of the playoffs where games become lower and lower scoring as the series goes on. We’re now into Game 6 between the Nuggets and Clippers, and this could be the lowest scoring game yet. Game 5 saw 216 combined points, but it took a huge comeback by the Nuggets and a 63-point 4th quarter to get there. I don’t see that happening again. Plus, the Nuggets had their best shooting game of the series at 48.1%, which also isn’t going to happen again. This should be closer to Game 4 when the Clippers won 96-85 in a defensive battle. The UNDER is 4-0-2 in Clippers last six games overall. The UNDER is 8-1-2 in Clippers last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The UNDER is 4-0-2 in Nuggets last six games overall. The UNDER is 40-18-2 in the last 60 meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|09-12-20||Rockets v. Lakers UNDER 215.5||Top||96-119||Win||100||12 h 11 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Lakers ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 215.5
I cashed in the Rockets/Lakers UNDER in Game 4 and I’m back on the UNDER today. Three of four games in this series have seen 214 combined points or fewer. The Lakers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and the Rockets get a bad reputation as their defense is better than their ’small ball’ lineup would suggest.
As we’ve seen with every series in the 2nd round, points come hard to get the deeper a series goes. Teams get familiar with one another, and there are fewer fast break opportunities. It basically becomes a half court game in the playoffs the deeper a series goes.
Houston is 15-3 UNDER after allowing 110 points or more in three straight games this season. Los Angeles is 25-12 UNDER after scoring 110 points or more in three straight games over the past two seasons. The UNDER is 6-1 in Rockets last seven games overall. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Saturday.
|09-11-20||Celtics -2.5 v. Raptors||Top||92-87||Win||100||10 h 18 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Boston -2.5
The Toronto Raptors are very fortunate to still be alive in this series. They needed a buzzer-beater in Game 3 to avoid falling down 0-3, and they needed double-overtime to win Game 6. The Celtics have clearly been the better team in this series, and they will win Game 7 by being the better team tonight.
Boston hasn’t shot worse than 42.1% in any game in the series, and has shot 44% or better in five of the six games. Toronto has shot 43.6% or worse in five of six games, and 40% or worse in four of those. The Celtics are clearly the better defensive team.
Boston is 18-9 ATS when revenging a loss this season. The Celtics are 13-3 ATS when playing against a top level team that wins more than 70% of their games this season. Boston is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss. Bet the Celtics Friday.
|09-11-20||Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 216||111-105||Push||0||8 h 48 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Clippers TNT Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 216
The Nuggets and Clippers are coming off a very low scoring Game 4 and oddsmakers haven set this total too high once again for Game 5. They just combined for 181 points in a 96-85 victory for the Clippers in Game 4.
Now they have the total at 216, which they have lowered, but it’s just not low enough. As a playoff series goes on, teams become more familiar with one another, which favors defense. And it leads to fewer fast breaks and a lot of half court offense.
The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Nuggets last five games overall. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Clippers last five games overall. The UNDER is 40-18-1 in the last 59 meetings. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|09-10-20||Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 219.5||Top||110-100||Win||100||7 h 28 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 219.5
Both the Lakers and Rockets shot really well in Game 3 and it still saw just 214 combined points. The Lakers shot 55.1% while the Rockets shot 46.9% from the field. I would have a hard time seeing either team shooting as well in Game 4.
As we’ve seen with the other 2nd round series thus far, the deeper it gets into the series, the harder it is to score points. That’s because teams become more familiar with one another, and it inevitably becomes a half-court game with few fast break opportunities.
The UNDER is 5-1 in Rockets last six games overall. The UNDER is 35-15-1 in Rockets last 51 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|09-09-20||Clippers v. Nuggets +8||Top||96-85||Loss||-106||9 h 19 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +8
The Denver Nuggets have really impressed since coming out flat in Game 1. That was expected as they were just coming off a 7-game series against the Jazz in which they put a lot into coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win that series.
But the Nuggets look rejuvenated in their last two games. They pulled the 110-101 upset in Game 2 as 8.5-point dogs, and led most the way over the Clippers in Game 3, only to fall short 107-113.
The Clippers even shot 54.7% as a team in Game 3 and still only won by 6 points. It’s going to take a lot for the Clippers to be able to put away the Nuggets by 8-point points tonight.
Denver is 8-0 ATS after two straight games where they attempted 10-plus fewer free throws than their opponent over the last three seasons. The Nuggets are coming back to win by 10.2 points per game in this spot. Bet the Nuggets Wednesday.
|09-08-20||Lakers -4.5 v. Rockets||Top||112-102||Win||100||11 h 38 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4.5
The Los Angeles Lakers bounced back nicely in Game 2 with a 117-109 victory as 5.5-point favorites over the Houston Rockets. Now they go up 2-1 with another win and cover in Game 3 tonight.
The Lakers won despite the Rockets making 10 more 3-pointers (22) than they did (12). Los Angeles took advantage of its size and got easy bucket after easy bucket. The Lakers shot 47-of-83 (56.6%) from the field. Look for them to continue to be aggressive with Lebron and Anthony Davis both getting to the rim at will.
The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing on one days’ rest. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on one days’ rest. Houston is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU loss. Bet the Lakers Tuesday.
|09-07-20||Celtics -1.5 v. Raptors||Top||111-89||Win||100||7 h 28 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Boston -1.5
The Boston Celtics were one shot away from being up 3-0 in this series. They suffered a heartbreaker in Game 3 at the buzzer, and then in Game 4 they simply shot poorly while the Raptors shot lights out from 3-point range.
Indeed, the Celtics had their worst shooting game of the series, making just 7-of-35 (20%) from distance. The Raptors shot 17-of-44 (38.6%) in the same game, yet the Celtics still had a chance late and only lost 93-100. Look for a role reversal here.
Even though I cashed the Raptors the last two games, I still believe the Celtics are the better team in this series, so I have to side with them in this all-important Game 5. Boston is 12-2 ATS vs. teams that win more than 70% of their games this season. Bet the Celtics Monday.
|09-06-20||Rockets v. Lakers -5.5||Top||109-117||Win||100||10 h 29 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Lakers ABC Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5
The Los Angeles Lakers showed some rust in Game 1 against the Blazers in the first round because they weren’t trying too hard in the bubble. But they rebounded to win the next four games, including a 111-88 blowout in Game 2.
The Lakers were rusty again coming into Game 1 against the Rockets in Round 2. They had six days off prior to Game 1 and the rust showed. The Lakers shot just 42.2% from the field and 28.9% from the 3-point line. Look for them to be much sharper in Game 2 tonight.
Now the Lakers go from being 6.5-point favorites in Game 1 down to 5.5-point favorites in Game 2. I don’t agree with the line adjustment, and there’s clearly value with the Lakers here as they’ll be the team playing with more of a sense of urgency than Houston. Bet the Lakers Sunday.
|09-05-20||Raptors +1.5 v. Celtics||100-93||Win||100||8 h 29 m||Show|
15* Raptors/Celtics TNT ANNIHILATOR on Toronto +1.5
The Toronto Raptors are going to have a great mindset heading into Game 4 tonight. They saved their season with a 3-point buzzer beater in a 104-103 win over Boston in Game 3 after losing a 99-102 heartbreaker in Game 2. Now they have the belief they can get it done.
The Celtics have simply shot better than the Raptors from 3-point range in this series, which has really been the difference. The Celtics are 41-of-106 (38.7%) for the series while the Raptors are 34-of-120 (28.3%). The Raptors shot it better than the Celtics during the regular season so that should even itself out, and it did in Game 3.
Toronto is 14-3 ATS off a win by 6 points or less this season. The Raptors are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six playoff games as underdogs. Toronto is 45-22 ATS in its last 67 games playing on one days’ rest. Take the Raptors Saturday.
|09-04-20||Bucks -5 v. Heat||Top||100-115||Loss||-103||18 h 39 m||Show|
20* Bucks/Heat TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -5
The Milwaukee Bucks are basically in a must-win situation here now down 0-2 to the Miami Heat. While I knew the Heat would give them a series because they are gritty and have great shooting, I have to go against the Heat in this situation.
Miami will relax while Milwaukee will simply want it more. And I trust Mike Budenholzer to make the proper adjustments in this one. The Bucks shot poorly and still almost won Game 2, shooting 43.5% from the floor and 28% from 3-point range. I expect them to improve upon those numbers in Game 3 tonight.
Milwaukee is 45-25 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons. The Bucks are 25-11 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last two seasons. Milwaukee is 32-15 ATS in its last 47 games following a loss. Bet the Bucks Friday.
|09-03-20||Raptors -112 v. Celtics||Top||104-103||Win||100||8 h 29 m||Show|
25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Toronto Raptors ML -112
The Toronto Raptors blew a double-digit lead in the 2nd half over the Celtics in Game 2. It was all Marcus Smart as he went 5-of-6 from 3-point range in the 4th quarter alone and was unconscious. I don’t see that happening again.
Now down 0-2, the Raptors are in must-win mode, and I trust their championship pedigree to get the job done in Game 3 and get back into this series. They clearly have not played up to their potential in the first two games of this series.
Indeed, the Raptors shot just 36.9% in Game 1 and 10-of-40 (25%) from 3-point range. Then they shot just 40% in Game 2 and 11-of-40 (27.5%) from 3-point range. They are now 21-of-80 (26.3%) from distance in the series while Boston is 32-of-77 (41.6%). That discrepancy can’t continue. Toronto shoots 37.4% on the season while Boston shoots 36.5%.
The Raptors are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games following an ATS loss. Toronto is 45-21 ATS in its last 66 games playing on one days’ rest. Bet the Raptors Thursday.
|09-02-20||Heat v. Bucks -5||Top||116-114||Loss||-106||8 h 22 m||Show|
20* Heat/Bucks ESPN No-Brainer on Milwaukee -5
The Milwaukee Bucks lost Game 1 to the Orlando Magic last series and promptly bounced back with four straight double-digit victories. While it won’t come as easily against the Miami Heat, I do expect the Bucks to bounce back with a win and cover in Game 2 tonight.
The Bucks shot just 14-of-26 (53.8%) from the free throw line in Game 1 while theHeat shot 25-of-27 (92.6%). That was the difference. Also, the Bucks only had one day to prepare for Miami, while the Heat had a whole week to prepare for Milwaukee after sweeping the Pacers. Look for Mike Budenholzer to make the proper adjustments leading into Game 2.
The Heat are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs. Miami is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games off a SU win by more than 10 points. Milwaukee is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 games following a SU loss, including 12-3 ATS in its last 15 following a SU loss by more than 10 points. Bet the Bucks Wednesday.
|09-01-20||Celtics v. Raptors -120||Top||102-99||Loss||-120||5 h 14 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Raptors ESPN No-Brainer on Toronto ML -120
I cashed with the Celtics in Game 1, but I’m taking the Raptors to bounce back in Game 2. I do believe the Celtics are the better team in this series, but it has seven games written all over it.
Toronto shot very poorly in Game 1. They made just 36.9% from the field and 10-of-40 (25%) from 3-point range. The Celtics shot 47% from the field and 17-of-39 (43.6%) from distance. Look for those numbers to be a lot more in the Raptors’ favor tonight.
Toronto is 13-3 ATS off a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last three seasons. The Raptors are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games off an ATS loss. Bet the Raptors Tuesday.
|08-31-20||Rockets v. Thunder +6||Top||100-104||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +6
The Oklahoma City Thunder showed some resiliency fighting back from an 0-2 deficit to tie this series. Now they will show it again after their worst performance of the series in Game 5 and come back with a much better effort in Game 6.
The Thunder shot just 31.5% as a team and 7-of-46 (15.2%) from 3-point range in Game 5. That’s not going to happen again. The Rockets aren’t a very good defensive team with their small ball lineup, so it was more of a case of the Thunder just missing good looks in Game 5 than Houston’s D.
Houston is 15-31 ATS in its last 46 games off a win by 30 points or more. The Rockets are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games when attempting to close out a playoff series. Oklahoma City is 26-11 ATS in its last 37 games as an underdog. The Thunder are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss by more than 10 points. Bet the Thunder Monday.
|08-30-20||Celtics +2 v. Raptors||112-94||Win||100||2 h 58 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Raptors ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston +2
The Boston Celtics just swept the Philadelphia 76ers and are ready to try and take down the defending champs starting with Game 1 of this series Sunday. Give the Raptors some credit for what they’ve done this season, but they clearly aren’t as good without Kawhi Leonard.
Boston went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against Toronto in the regular season. That includes a 22-point win and a 16-point win as they were clearly the dominant team in the head-to-head matchup. And I expect that to carry over into the playoffs. The wrong team is favored in Game 1 here.
Boston is 9-1 ATS when playing with three or more days’ rest over the last two seasons. The Celtics are 9-1 ATS when playing against a top level team that wins 70% or more of their games this season. The Celtics are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games as underdogs. Take the Celtics Sunday.
|08-29-20||Thunder +5.5 v. Rockets||Top||80-114||Loss||-115||8 h 11 m||Show|
20* Thunder/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +5.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder are brimming with confidence after erasing an 0-2 deficit to win Games 3 and 4 and tie this series back up. Now they take control of it with another victory in Game 5 tonight.
The Thunder opened the series as 1-point favorites in Game 1, and are now 5.5-point underdogs in Game 5. That’s a 6.5-point adjustment, and I don’t agree with it. I believe the wrong team is favored once again in Game 5 tonight.
The Rockets have shot worse than 44% from the field in eight of their last 11 games overall. Shots just aren’t coming as easily for the Rockets, and I think too much is being made of Russell Westbrook coming back for this game. He isn’t going to be back to full strength and there will be some rust and chemistry issues.
The Thunder are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as underdogs. Oklahoma City is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 games playing on one days’ rest. The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss. Oklahoma City is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Bet the Thunder Saturday.
|08-25-20||Jazz v. Nuggets +3||Top||107-117||Win||100||7 h 13 m||Show|
20* Jazz/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on Denver +3
It’s now or never for the Denver Nuggets, who find themselves in a 1-3 hole to the Utah Jazz with their season on the line in Game 5 tonight. I expect them to get the job done and extend this series to a 6th game.
The Jazz only won 129-127 in Game 4 as 3.5-point favorites despite shooting 57.5% from the field and making 19 more free throws than Denver. Both of those things aren’t going to happen again, and thus the Nuggets should be able to win.
I was on the Nuggets in Game 4 and cashed, and I’m on them again for similar reasons. They were 4.5-point favorites over the Jazz in Game 1, and now they are 3-point underdogs in Game 5. That’s a 7.5-point adjustment and too much.
The Jazz are 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games as favorites. Utah is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. Denver is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet the Nuggets Tuesday.
|08-24-20||Lakers v. Blazers +7.5||135-115||Loss||-105||12 h 43 m||Show|
15* Lakers/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +7.5
The Portland Trail Blazers are catching too many points in Game 4 tonight as they try and square this series. They upset the Lakers in Game 1, and the Lakers understandably came back with a big effort in Game 2.
But the Blazers gave the Lakers all they could handle in Game 3 and lost 108-116 as 8-point dogs. They will play an even better game here with their season essentially on the line.
It’s only a matter of time before the Blazers shoot the ball better in this series. They shot 39.2% in Game 1, 40% in Game 2 and 41.1% in Game 3. The Lakers shot 50% in Game 3 and they still only lost by 8. Only a slight improvement will have them covering this 7.5-point spread with ease.
The Lakers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Blazers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record. Portland has just one loss by more than 8 points since the restart, which is a span of 12 games. Take the Blazers Monday.
|08-24-20||Rockets v. Thunder +3.5||Top||114-117||Win||100||7 h 43 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +3.5
With their season essentially on the line, the Oklahoma City Thunder came through with a huge 119-107 (OT) victory over the Houston Rockets in Game 3. They had to battle adversity and poor officiating down the stretch of regulation to get the win.
The way they won that game will give the Thunder a lot of confidence heading into Game 4 tonight to try and square this series. And I expect it to pay dividends for them in the 4th quarter.
The Thunder are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. They have shown that in their last two games, limiting the Rockets to just 41.8% shooting in Game 2 and 41.3% shooting in Game 3. It’s a Rockets team that just hasn’t shot it very well since the restart because they have such poor shot selection. They have been held to less than 44% in eight of their last 10 games overall.
Oklahoma City is 14-6 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Rockets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss. Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a SU loss by more than 10 points. The Thunder are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games as underdogs. Bet the Thunder Monday.
|08-23-20||Nuggets +3.5 v. Jazz||Top||127-129||Win||100||13 h 47 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +3.5
The Denver Nuggets were embarrassed in Games 2 and 3 and will come back with their biggest effort of the series in Game 4 to try and square it at 2-2.
From a line value prospective alone this is the play with the Nuggets as 3.5-point dogs when you consider they were 4.5-point favorites in Game 1, an 8-point adjustment.
Denver is 20-8 ATS after failing to cover four of their last five ATS over the last three seasons. Utah is 4-15-2 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite. Bet the Nuggets Sunday.
|08-22-20||Rockets v. Thunder +3.5||Top||107-119||Win||100||11 h 53 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Thunder ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +3.5
It’s now or never for the Oklahoma City Thunder. They blew a 59-53 halftime lead in Game 2 and got killed in the 2nd half. Look for them to respond in a big way today to take Game 3 and avoid falling in the dreaded 0-3 hole.
The Thunder haven’t shot the ball up to their potential in either game yet. They shot just 44% in Game 1 and 44.3% in Game 2. And it’s not like the Rockets are some defensive juggernaut with their small ball lineup, either. Scoring only 108 and 98 points, respectively, in the first two games of this series is unacceptable.
Oklahoma City is 14-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Thunder are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games as underdogs overall. OKC is 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Houston, so it had covered five straight prior to the first two games of this series. Bet the Thunder Saturday.
|08-22-20||Pacers +5 v. Heat||115-124||Loss||-103||8 h 7 m||Show|
15* Pacers/Heat TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +5
It’s now or never for the Indiana Pacers. They are down 0-2 to the Miami Heat while playing a couple of hard-fought games. They just couldn’t get the job done in the 4th quarter in either of the two games, but had their chances.
Look for the Pacers to come back with their best performance of the series today to avoid falling in the dreaded 0-3 hole. I think there’s great value with them here as 5-point underdogs after they were only 3.5-point dogs in Game 2. Victor Oladipo is back healthy after missing most of Game 1 with an eye contusion, and he means everything to their success.
Indiana is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss. The Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss. Miami is 6-20-1 ATS in its last 27 games following a SU win. The Heat are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS win. Take the Pacers Saturday.
|08-21-20||Clippers -5 v. Mavs||Top||130-122||Win||100||11 h 23 m||Show|
25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Clippers -5
The Los Angeles Clippers played what will prove to be their worst game of the series in Game 2. They shot just 29.4% from 3-point range compared to 44.8% for Dallas and committed six more turnovers than the Mavericks. For whatever reason, they just weren’t into it.
I have no doubt the Clippers will come back with the intensity they need to put the Mavericks away in Game 3. They have the two best players on the court in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, and their role players are also much better than that of Dallas. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Clippers win the next three games in this series.
Los Angeles is 12-3 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season. The Clippers are 14-4 ATS when revenging a loss as a favorite over the last two seasons. Los Angeles is 17-5 ATS following a loss this season. The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. Bet the Clippers Friday.
|08-21-20||Nuggets -1.5 v. Jazz||87-124||Loss||-104||6 h 19 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Jazz TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Denver -1.5
The Nuggets went from being 4.5-point favorites in Game 1 to 3.5-point favorites in Game 2. Now oddsmakers have listed them as only 1.5-point favorites in Game 3, which is a 3-point adjustment from the Game 1 line. I think the value is with the Nuggets in Game 3 as a result.
This adjustment is made from Utah playing a great Game 2 and shooting 51.7% in a 124-105 victory. They aren’t going to shoot that well again. It’s also adjusted for the expected return of Mike Conley, but he has been one of the most overrated players in the NBA this season as the Jazz have actually been just as good or better without him.
The Nuggets are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss. The Jazz are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. Utah is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Denver is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the Nuggets Friday.
|08-20-20||Thunder +3 v. Rockets||Top||98-111||Loss||-115||5 h 11 m||Show|
20* Thunder/Rockets ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +3
The Oklahoma City Thunder went from being favorites in Game 1 to 3-point underdogs in Game 2. This is too big of an adjustment just because the Rockets looked good in Game 1 in their 123-108 victory.
Look for the Thunder to play with more of a sense of urgency tonight. And I have a hard time believing the Rockets are going to shoot as well as they did in Game 1, which was 48.3% from the field with 20 made 3-pointers. The Thunder are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.
Oklahoma City is 21-12 ATS when revenging a loss this season. The Thunder are 20-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Oklahoma City is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a SU loss by more than 10 points. The Thunder are 41-20 ATS in their last 61 games as underdogs. The Rockets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites. Bet the Thunder Thursday.
|08-19-20||Mavs v. Clippers -6||Top||127-114||Loss||-104||10 h 13 m||Show|
20* Mavs/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -6
The Clippers are as healthy as they’ve been all season with the returns of Harrell, Beverly and Shamet for Game 1 of this series. They shook off their rust and came through with a 118-110 victory. They’re only going to continue to gel more with each passing game, and they are clearly the best team in the West in my opinion.
The Dallas Mavericks rely too much on Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. That’s because they lost key role players in Dwight Powell, Jalen Brunson, Courtney Lee and Willie Cauley-Stein to season ending injuries.
After a poor 1st half defensively giving up 69 points, the Clippers showed what they could do when they get after it defensively in the 2nd half. They held the Mavericks to just 41 points after intermission, which was the key to their victory. With stoppers like Kawhi Leonard, Beverly and Paul George, the Clippers can match up with Doncic and Porzingis as well as anyone.
The Mavericks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Los Angeles is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 games playing on one days’ rest. The Clippers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, winning by an average of 10 points pre game. Bet the Clippers Wednesday.
|08-18-20||Heat -4.5 v. Pacers||Top||113-101||Win||100||5 h 19 m||Show|
20* Heat/Pacers TNT No-Brainer on Miami -4.5
The Miami Heat are a real threat in the Eastern Conference. And they are just getting healthy in time for the playoffs with Butler, Dragic, Adebayo, Iguodala and Crowder all listed as probable tonight. Look for them to handle their business against the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 tonight.
The Heat are 3-1 SU against the Pacers this season, including a 114-92 win in the bubble when they were healthy. Their only loss came in their regular season finale when they had nothing to play for and rested everyone.
Give the Pacers credit for fighting through injuries of their own and still posting a 45-28 record this season. But it’s much easier to do that in the regular season than it is in the playoffs, and the fact of the matter is that they just aren’t talented enough to compete at this level, especially without All-Star Domantas Sabonis.
Miami is 27-14 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. The Heat are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games following a loss. Miami is 37-18 ATS in its last 55 games playing on three or more days’ rest. The Heat are 31-15-2 ATS in their last 48 games following an ATS loss. Bet the Heat Tuesday.
|08-17-20||Mavs v. Clippers -6||Top||110-118||Win||100||10 h 35 m||Show|
20* Mavs/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -6
The Los Angeles Clippers are more healthy now for the start of the playoffs than they were for the eight-game sample. They are expected to get back the guy that brings the infectious energy in Montrezl Harrell, and they could be getting back another guy in his same mold in Patrick Beverly. Landry Shamet also could return.
Either way, I think the Clippers have enough to take care of the Mavericks with room to spare in Game 1 of this series tonight. They won all three regular season meetings with the Mavericks, including two by 15 points each. They won 126-111 as 3.5-point favorites in the bubble on August 6th.
The Mavericks are just a shell of their former selves with the season-ending injuries to Dwight Powell, Courtney Lee and Willie Cauley-Stein. They don’t have near the depth that the Clippers do, and they rely too much on just two games in Doncic and Porzingis. Kawhi Leonard can shut down Doncic if Doc Rivers decides to go that route.
The Clippers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as favorites. Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record. The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Clippers Monday.
|08-15-20||Grizzlies +6.5 v. Blazers||Top||122-126||Win||100||3 h 9 m||Show|
20* Grizzlies/Blazers Play-In No-Brainer on Memphis +6.5
The Portland Trail Blazers only need to win one game against Memphis to make the playoffs. The Grizzlies need to win two games, so look for them to be playing with more of a sense of urgency in this Game 1 than the Blazers will be.
Portland clearly cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number either. While the Blazers went 6-2 in the restart, all eight games were decided by 10 points or less, and they have only two wins by more than 5 points. They just don’t play enough defense to put teams away, and they are a terrible rebounding team.
Memphis lost 135-140 in overtime to Portland during he restart. But the Grizzlies won 111-104 in their previous meeting back in February. And I expect this one to go right down to the wire as well, meaning there’s a lot of value with the Grizzlies +6.5 here. Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.
|08-13-20||Mavs v. Suns -7||Top||102-128||Win||100||6 h 11 m||Show|
20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -7
The Phoenix Suns need a win and either a loss by Memphis or Portland to make the play-in series for the 8th seed in the West. They’ve made it this far, and they’re not about to let up now.
The Suns are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS since the restart, the only undefeated team in the bubble. And they’re not only winning, they are dominating. Four of those seven wins have come by double-digits. They have won those seven games by an average of 11.3 points per game.
The Dallas Mavericks are locked into the 7th seed and looking ahead to their series with the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round. They won’t be too motivated to win this game, and they could rest their players with nicks and bruises.
The Suns are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Mavericks. Phoenix is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Suns Thursday.
|08-12-20||Heat -1 v. Thunder||Top||115-116||Loss||-110||9 h 45 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1
The Miami Heat just got Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic back from injury and promptly ended a two-game losing streak with an emphatic 114-92 win over Indiana as 4-point favorites Monday. Now I look for them to take down the Oklahoma City Thunder Wednesday.
While the Heat are almost fully healthy, the same cannot be said for the Thunder. They are without Dennis Schroder, and Steven Adams, Danilo Gallinari and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are all questionable to play tonight. Don’t be surprised if the Thunder play it safe here with the playoffs just around the corner, and playoff positioning not really a priority compared to their health. Bet the Heat Wednesday.
|08-11-20||Blazers -3.5 v. Mavs||Top||134-131||Loss||-110||8 h 12 m||Show|
25* NBA Restart GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers -3.5
The Portland Trail Blazers are 4-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS since the restart. They have been playing some great basketball and are closing in on making the play-in game in the West for the 8th and final seed. This is a much more important game for them than it is the Dallas Mavericks.
The Mavericks are in 7th place in the West and one game back of the Jazz. They are basically locked into this spot with two games to go. It’s why they decided to sit Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis last game, and both of them are questionable to play again tonight. The Mavericks have a ton of injuries they are dealing with right now and would be wise to play it safe.
Given the situation of both teams, the Blazers should be much bigger than only 3.5-point favorites tonight. Bet the Blazers Tuesday.
|08-11-20||Rockets v. Spurs -2.5||105-123||Win||100||4 h 42 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Early ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio Spurs -2.5
The San Antonio Spurs are just 0.5 games back of the Portland Trail Blazers for 9th place in the West and tied with Phoenix for 10th place. Remember, the 8th seed will face the 9th seed in a play-in game to make the playoffs. This is a must-win for San Antonio with only two games remaining.
The Spurs have handled this pressure well in going 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS to put themselves in this position. And they are much healthier than the Houston Rockets, who are almost certainly locked into the 4th seed in the West.
The Rockets will be without both James Harden and Eric Gordon tonight, and they could be without Russell Westbrook, who is dealing with a quad injury. Danuel House is also questionable with a toe injury. They just want to be healthy going into the playoffs, so they’d be wise to play it safe.
The Spurs are 38-12 ATS when revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Spurs Tuesday.
|08-10-20||Nuggets +5 v. Lakers||Top||121-124||Win||100||8 h 24 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +5
The Los Angeles Lakers are already locked into the No. 1 seed in the West with nothing to play for. It has shown as the Lakers are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS since the restart. They’ve lost their last three games by a combined 40 points.
The Denver Nuggets still have something to play for as they are closing in on the No. 2 seed in the West, just one game behind the Clippers. They have played well in going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. And the overall depth of their team helps them tremendously in this restart as they’ve been able to overcome some injuries.
The Lakers are 1-10 ATS when playing their 4th road games in 7 days over the last two seasons. Denver is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 Monday games. Bet the Nuggets Monday.
|08-10-20||Pacers v. Heat -3.5||92-114||Win||100||8 h 39 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -3.5
The Miami Heat are expected to get back both Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic tonight. They still have a lot to play for in terms of playoff positioning and will be going hard for a win against the Indiana Pacers Monday.
These injuries have cost Miami in their last two games with losses to Milwaukee and Phoenix. Look for them to come back highly motivated for a victory. This is the only game they’ve been favored in since their 125-105 win over Denver in their opening game of the restart. They have played an absolutely brutal schedule, but it lightens up here against Indiana, a team they should handle.
The Heat have won both meetings with he Pacers this season. Miami is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games following a loss. Take the Heat Monday.
|08-09-20||76ers v. Blazers -2.5||121-124||Win||100||11 h 40 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5
The Portland Trail Blazers need to bounce back from a tough loss to the Clippers yesterday if they want to make the playoffs. This game means a lot more to them than it does the Philadelphia 76ers.
The 76ers will be without Ben Simmons tonight, and they certainly aren’t nearly as good of a team without him. Philadelphia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win. Portland is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss. Take the Blazers Sunday.
|08-08-20||Suns -1.5 v. Heat||119-112||Win||100||9 h 37 m||Show|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Phoenix Suns -1.5
The Phoenix Suns are doing everything in their power to make the playoffs. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS since the restart with three outright victories. And now I expect them to take down the Miami Heat today.
While the Suns are healthy, the Heat have several injury concerns right now. Both Jimmy Butler and Kendrick Nunn will sit out this game, and Goran Dragic is questionable. The Suns are simply the better team right now given their current form and these injuries for the Heat.
Phoenix is 9-1 ATS when playing its 3rd road game in 5 days this season. The Suns are 8-0 ATS in road games after. Having won four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons. Take the Suns Saturday.
|08-08-20||Clippers v. Blazers -2.5||Top||122-117||Loss||-110||3 h 39 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Blazers TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Portland -2.5
The Portland Trail Blazers have gotten healthy due to the break in action and are fully taking advantage. They are on track to make the playoffs after opening 3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS since the restart.
Now they face a Los Angeles Clippers team that is basically already locked into the No. 2 or No. 3 seed. The Clippers would actually like to see the Blazers get the 8th seed to make the 1st-round matchup for the Lakers the most difficult. They know the Blazers would be their toughest opponent given that they made the Western Conference Finals last year when healthy.
That could be why the Clippers are deciding to rest Kawhi Leonard today. Both Patrick Beverly and Montrezl Harrell are out for Los Angeles as well. The Blazers are 10-1 ATS when revenging a blowout road loss by 20 points or more over the lsat three seasons. Bet the Blazers Saturday.
|08-07-20||Kings -4.5 v. Nets||Top||106-119||Loss||-110||6 h 1 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -4.5
The Sacramento Kings finally got a taste of victory to remain alive in the Western Conference playoff race. They beat the Pelicans 140-125 outright as 4-point dogs. Look for them to build on that momentum and take down the Brooklyn Nets tonight.
The Nets are going to make the playoffs, it’s just whether they will be the 7th or 8th seed. They don’t have much to play for, and that showed in their 115-149 loss to the Celtics last time out. They are short-handed right now with all of their injuries, and this will be their 3rd game in 4 days.
The Kings love to push the tempo and will challenge Brooklyn’s conditioning tonight. I expect the Kings to break them. Sacramento is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games playing on zero rest. The Kings are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Kings Friday.
|08-06-20||Blazers -4 v. Nuggets||Top||125-115||Win||100||9 h 40 m||Show|
20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -4
The Portland Trail Blazers have a lot to play for right now and they are playing like it. They have opened 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS since the restart. I’ll back them again here as short favorites over the Denver Nuggets.
The Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. They still have a lot of injury questions with Jamal Murray, Gary Harris and Will Barton all questionable to play tonight. Given the situation, don’t be surprised if they play it cautiously.
Denver is 7-17 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season. The Nuggets are 19-37 ATS after scoring 120 points or more over the last three years. Portland is 13-3 ATS when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. The Blazers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Blazers Thursday.
|08-06-20||Pacers v. Suns +125||99-114||Win||125||5 h 41 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Phoenix Suns ML +125
The Phoenix Suns have played as well as anyone since the restart. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with upset victories over both the Mavericks and Clippers, two of the best teams in the Western Conference. Now they’ll take down the Indiana Pacers tonight as they continue their push to try and make the 8th seed in the West.
The Pacers have opened 3-0 as well, but against a much softer schedule. Their only good win was a huge comeback against Philadelphia. The other two wins were against Washington and Orlando. I still question how good this team is going to be moving forward without both Domantas Sabonis and Jeremy Lamb. Plus, Malcolm Brogdon is questionable tonight.
Plays on underdogs (Phoenix) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, off an upset win over a division opponent as an underdog of 6 points or more are 66-34 (66%) ATS since 1996.
Phoenix is 8-1 ATS in road games after scoring 115 points or more this season. The Suns are 8-1 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days this year. Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. Take the Suns on the Money Line Thursday.
|08-05-20||Nuggets v. Spurs +3.5||Top||132-126||Loss||-110||6 h 56 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +3.5
The San Antonio Spurs trail the Memphis Grizzlies by two games for the 8th seed in the West. They are also 0.5 games back of the Blazers for the 9th seed, and the 8th will square off against the 9th to make the playoffs.
It’s safe to say the Spurs are highly motivated for wins right now. They are clearly playing with a sense of urgency as they are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS since the restart with upset wins over Sacramento and Memphis, as well as a 2-point loss to Philadelphia as 7-point dogs on the 2nd of a back-to-back.
The Nuggets are only playing for playoff positioning. They lost by 20 to Miami and beat Oklahoma City in overtime. They have some injuries they are dealing with right now with both Will Barton and Garry Harris out, and Jamal Murray is questionable tonight. All three have missed their first two games as the Nuggets are playing it cautiously with them.
San Antonio is 48-22 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons. The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog. Bet the Spurs Wednesday.
|08-04-20||Magic -1.5 v. Pacers||109-120||Loss||-105||7 h 58 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -1.5
Few teams have been more impressive than the Orlando Magic since the restart. They have put together two double-digit victories over Brooklyn and Sacramento, two other teams fighting for their playoff lives.
The Indians Pacers have also been impressive with an upset win over Philadelphia in comeback fashion and an 11-point win over Washington. But the Pacers are not healthy right now as they are missing Domantas Sabonis and Jeremy Lamb, plus Victor Oladipo is questionable with a knee injury.
The Magic are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Orlando is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a win. The Pacers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight. Indiana is 0-5 ATS in its last five games playing on zero rest. Take the Magic Tuesday.
|08-04-20||Suns +9 v. Clippers||Top||117-115||Win||100||5 h 58 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +9
The Phoenix Suns are making their run at the 8th seed in the West. They have opened 2-0 since the restart with a blowout win over Washington and an upset win over Dallas. Now I expect them to give the Los Angeles Clippers a run for their money tonight.
The Suns are almost fully healthy now and playing up to their potential. The Clippers are still missing some key pieces in Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell. They will have a hard time putting away the Suns by double-digits, which is what it would take to cover this massive spread tonight.
Phoenix is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games when playing its 3rd road game in 5 days. The Suns are 11-3 ATS in road games when revenging a home loss this season. The Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a win by more than 10 points. Bet the Suns Tuesday.
|08-03-20||Raptors v. Heat +3.5||Top||107-103||Loss||-102||2 h 5 m||Show|
20* Raptors/Heat NBA TV Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami +3.5
The mindset of the Miami Heat for this restart is perfect. Erik Spoelstra has said all the right things, and his team delivered with a 125-105 win over the Denver Nuggets in their first game back. Now I expect them to take down the Toronto Raptors.
The Raptors now essentially have the No. 2 seed locked up in the East after taking down the Los Angeles Lakers in their opener. They are 3.5 games ahead of the Celtics with seven games to play. And I think this is certainly a bit of a letdown spot off such a huge win over the Lakers.
Miami is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Toronto this season. The Heat are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. Toronto is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games following a win by more than 10 points. Bet the Heat Monday.
|08-02-20||Spurs +4.5 v. Grizzlies||Top||108-106||Win||100||5 h 25 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +4.5
The San Antonio Spurs picked up a huge 129-120 upset win over the Kings as 3.5-point underdogs in their opener. Now this is their most important game of the restart facing off against the Memphis Grizzlies, who are the No. 8 seed in the West and the team they are trying to beat out for that final playoff spot.
The Spurs are missing some important players in this restart, but they clearly showed they have enough to be competitive. They shot 53% as a team and 44% from 3-point range against the Kings. Five players scored in double figures, including DeRozan (27), White (26) and Gay (19).
The Grizzlies are a young team that may not handle the pressure of trying to make the playoffs well at all. They blew a 4th quarter lead to the Blazers and lost in overtime in their first game back from the restart. And I don’t believe they should be 4.5-point favorites here given that the Spurs simply need this game more.
San Antonio is 32-11 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last two seasons. Bet the Spurs Sunday.
|08-01-20||Heat +100 v. Nuggets||Top||125-105||Win||100||4 h 36 m||Show|
20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat ML +100
The Miami Heat are at full strength coming into the restart. The same cannot be said for the Denver Nuggets, who are going to be without Garry Harris, and they could be without both Jamal Murray and Will Barton, who are questionable. And I just love what I’m hearing from Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra.
“Our guys are competitors. They love this,” Spoelstra said. “They’re really enjoying this environment, having an opportunity to feel normal and get in between those four lines and compete. We’re excited about our team. We’ve had three really good weeks of practice, guys are ready.”
The Heat aren’t using these eight games to find a favorable matchup. They’re going to play the games and find out where they stand at the end.
“I don’t even need to explain it, we’re not going to lose games or play different to try to line up an opponent. That’s just not our language,” Spoelstra said. “We’re not going to Disney to waste each other’s times. We’re there for a reason. Competition, like I said, brings out a different quality in this group, individually and collectively. We’ll treat those games with great respect.” Bet the Heat on the Money Line Saturday.
|07-31-20||Celtics +5 v. Bucks||112-119||Loss||-110||7 h 41 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Bucks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston +5
The Milwaukee Bucks have the No. 1 seed in the East locked up. They are going to find it hard to be motivated until the playoffs get here. We saw that with their 103-124 setback against New Orleans in Monday’s scrimmage. And making matters worse is they will be without both Eric Bledsoe and Pat Connaughton, who both contracted COVID-19.
Boston is fighting for seeding and could get up to the No. 2 seed in the East as they trail the Raptors by three games. They are also just 2.5 games ahead of the Heat for 4th place. They for sure want either the No. 2 or No. 3 seed so they can avoid Milwaukee until the Eastern Conference Finals.
While the Bucks will be missing some key players, the Celtics come back fully healthy and ready to go. They have Kemba Walker (21.2 PPG), Jayson Tatum (23.6 PPG, 7.1 RPG), Jaylen Brown (20.4 PPG), Gordon Hayward (17.3 PPG) and Marcus Smart (13.5 PPG) all healthy and averaging double-digit points. Take the Celtics Friday.
|07-31-20||Grizzlies v. Blazers -2.5||Top||135-140||Win||100||4 h 11 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5
The Portland Trail Blazers are the biggest beneficiaries of the time off. It allowed them to get healthy as injuries decimated their roster. They now have Jusuf Nurkic, Hassan Whiteside and CJ McCollum back healthy. Damian Lillard is also good to go.
The Blazers would be the scariest No. 8 seed of all the teams vying for that spot due to their massive potential when healthy. As we saw, they made the Western Conference Finals last year when healthy.
And now the Blazers have a chance to really make a statement against Memphis tonight, which is the current No. 8 seed in the West. I think this young Grizzlies team is vulnerable here down the stretch and will have a hard time matching what they did in the first half of the season. The pressure is on, and I trust the veteran Blazers in this pressure-packed situation. Bet the Blazers Friday.
|07-30-20||Jazz v. Pelicans -2||Top||106-104||Loss||-105||6 h 25 m||Show|
20* Jazz/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on New Orleans -2
The New Orleans Pelicans were playing great before the stoppage. They had gotten almost everyone back from injury, and they won eight of their final 13 games.
Now healthy again, the Pelicans were one of only two teams to win all of their scrimmages prior to the restart. Look for them to continue their solid play here tonight against the Utah Jazz as they try and chase down the Memphis Grizzlies for the 8th and final playoff spot in the West.
The Jazz suffered a huge blow when second-leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic suffered a wrist injury that required season-ending surgery in May. He averaged 20.2 points per game and shot 41.4% from 3-point range this season. They simply cannot replace his shooting and scoring and will be much easier to defend now. Bet the Pelicans Thursday.
|03-11-20||North Carolina -3 v. Syracuse||Top||53-81||Loss||-110||12 h 45 m||Show|
20* UNC/Syracuse ESPN 2 No-Brainer on North Carolina -3
I was on North Carolina last night in their 78-56 beat down of Virginia Tech. And I’m on them again as short favorites over Syracuse for many of the same reasons. The Tar Heels have a huge home-court advantage as evidenced last night with this tournament being played in Greensboro, NC.
The Tar Heels have both Cole Anthony (19.6 PPG) and Brandon Robinson (11.9 PPG) back healthy, something they didn’t have earlier this season. The result has been a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS run in their last five games overall with all four wins by 6 points or more.
That includes their 92-79 road win at Syracuse as 5-point dogs on February 29th. It should be more of the same here as the Tar Heels are by far the superior team when healthy. And North Carolina is now 9-0 SU & 5-2-2 ATS in its last nine meetings with Syracuse.
Syracuse is 1-8 ATS vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season. The Orange are 2-9 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. The Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games off a win by more than 20 points. The Orange are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record. Syracuse is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four neutral site games. Bet North Carolina Wednesday.
|03-11-20||Vanderbilt +9.5 v. Arkansas||73-86||Loss||-110||11 h 59 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +9.5
The Vanderbilt Commodores have been grossly undervalued here down the stretch. They have gone 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall. That includes outright wins over Alabama as 12-point road dogs and South Carolina as 5-point home dogs in their final two games of the regular season.
Now, Vanderbilt is catching 9.5 points in a neutral court game against Arkansas in the opening round of the SEC Tournament. But this is far from neutral as there will be a big home-court advantage for the Commodores with this SEC Tournament being played in Nashville, TN.
While Arkansas has been crushing it at home this season, the Razorbacks have been awful away from home. They are just 5-8 SU & 4-9 ATS in all road/neutral games this season. And they were beaten by two of the worst teams in the SEC in Georgia and Texas A&M by 10 and 8, respectively, in their last two road games.
Arkansas is 0-7 ATS after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games this season. The Razorbacks are 0-7 ATS in road games vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The Commodores are 6-0 ATS in road games after going over the total in their previous game this season. These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Commodores. Take Vanderbilt Wednesday.
|03-11-20||Hornets +10 v. Heat||109-98||Win||100||9 h 10 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +10
The Charlotte Hornets have quietly gone 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They only have two losses by more than 8 points in their last 12 games. They have been very competitive, and they certainly can hang with the Miami Heat tonight.
While the Hornets are fully healthy, which is a big reason for their solid play of late, the Heat have a plethora of injury concerns. They are without Meyes Leonard, and Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn are all questionable to play tonight. The Heat are just 7-8 SU & 5-10 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
The Hornets are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Charlotte is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. The Heat are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games following an SU win. Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win. Take the Hornets Wednesday.
|03-11-20||Iowa State +6.5 v. Oklahoma State||71-72||Win||100||9 h 32 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +6.5
Kansas City, Missouri is known as Hilton South because Iowa State fans always travel well for the Big 12 Tournament. It’s no coincidence that the Cyclones have won four of the past six Big 12 tournaments, which is a remarkable feat.
Sure, Iowa State is down this year, but you can never count them out in the Big 12 Tournament. And getting +6.5 with the Cyclones in this opener against Oklahoma State is simply too many points. The Cyclones will get Prentiss Nixon back from injury, and there’s a good chance they get Rasir Bolton back after he missed the last regular season game with a concussion.
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Oklahoma State, which is getting too much respect from oddsmakers after going 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in its final three games of the season. But those three wins were against three of the worst teams in the conference in Kansas State, Iowa State and Texas. So the Cyclones want revenge from their 61-73 loss at Oklahoma State on February 29th less than two weeks ago.
Oklahoma State is 1-9 ATS after winning four of its last five games over the last three seasons. The Cyclones are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games as an underdog. The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six games off a win by more than 20 points. Roll with Iowa State Wednesday.
|03-10-20||Nets +10.5 v. Lakers||Top||104-102||Win||100||12 h 33 m||Show|
20* Nets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Brooklyn +10.5
The Los Angeles Lakers are coming off a huge weekend. After going 0-3 against the Bucks and Clippers previously this season, they beat both of them at home. Those are their two biggest contenders to win a title this season, and you could see the excitement on their faces after beating both.
It’s only human nature now for the Lakers to be flat tonight against the Brooklyn Nets in this obvious letdown spot. Plus, LeBron James aggregated a groin injury Sunday and is very questionable to play tonight. Don’t be surprise if the Lakers use extra caution and sit him.
Head coach Kenny Atkinson and the Nets just mutually agreed to part ways. Jacque Vaughn will be the interim coach the rest of the season. Teams usually respond well for a few games at least to a coaching change, and I expect that to be the case for the Nets here.
But the Nets have still be playing well in going 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall with wins over Boston on the road and San Antonio (by 19) and Chicago at home. They also only lost by 3 at Miami as 7.5-point road dogs. Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. The Nets are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine meetings in Los Angeles. Bet the Nets Tuesday.
|03-10-20||Suns v. Blazers -5||105-121||Win||100||11 h 2 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -5
The Portland Trail Blazers come in highly motivated for a victory tonight off two straight upset losses to Phoenix on the road and Sacramento at home in a back-to-back situation. But now the Blazers are rested and ready to go coming in on two days’ rest.
Adding to their motivation is that they just lost to Phoenix 117-127 on the road on March 6th just a few days ago. They don’t have to wait long for revenge. And there’s no way Phoenix shoots 19-of-42 (45.2%) from 3-point range again, which was the difference in that game.
Phoenix is in a massive letdown spot off two straight upset wins over Portland and Milwaukee at home. It was a rare win for the Suns in this series. The Blazers are now 11-2 SU in their last 13 meetings with Phoenix.
Portland is 12-3 ATS when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. Phoenix is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record. Plays on any team (Portland) - revenging a road loss by 10 points or more, in a game involving two losing teams (40% to 49%) are 46-20 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Blazers Tuesday.
|03-10-20||North Carolina -4 v. Virginia Tech||78-56||Win||100||8 h 57 m||Show|
15* VA Tech/UNC ACC ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina -4
The UNC Tar Heels are the most underrated team in the country. They have so many close losses this season and have battled through injury all year. But they are finally pretty healthy heading into the ACC Tournament and it has shown with how they have played down the stretch.
The Tar Heels are the team nobody wants to face in the ACC Tournament. They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with wins over NC State by 6 at home, Syracuse by 13 on the road and Wake Forest by 10 at home. Their only loss came by 13 at Duke as 10.5-point dogs in a game that was close until the final two minutes.
Now UNC wants revenge on Virginia Tech from a 77-79 (2 OT) road loss on January 22nd. But they didn’t have Cole Anthony (19.6 PPG) or Brandon Robinson (11.9 PPG) in that contest. Anthony and Robinson have been back down the stretch, though Robinson is questionable tonight with a head injury.
The Hokies have been woeful since that double-OT win over the Tar Heels. They are just 2-10 SU & 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall with nine of those losses by 4 points or more, including five by double-digits.
The Tar Heels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. UNC is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss. The Hokies are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. The Hokies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with North Carolina Tuesday.
|03-09-20||Raptors v. Jazz -4||Top||101-92||Loss||-110||10 h 18 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz -4
This is a very tough spot for the Toronto Raptors tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 118-113 win in Sacramento last night. They will also be playing their 5th road game in 9 days and have to be running on fumes. And now they have to go to Utah and play in altitude.
Many players played big minutes for the Raptors last night. Powell played over 42 minutes, Siakam over 38 minutes, Anunoby over 38 minutes, Ibaka over 35 minutes and Lowry over 35 minutes. They won’t have much left in the tank for the Jazz tonight.
Utah is back to playing up to its potential with five straight victories including four of those on the road. And now the Jazz want revenge from one of their worst losses of the season, a 110-130 setback in Toronto on December 1st. They trailed that game by 40 at halftime and have not forgotten.
The Raptors are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall. The Jazz are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win. Bet the Jazz Monday.
|03-08-20||Iowa v. Illinois -3.5||Top||76-78||Loss||-108||8 h 36 m||Show|
20* Iowa/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois -3.5
Home-court advantage has been huge for both of these teams this season. And it has been important in this head-to-head series as well as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Illinois wants revenge form a tough 65-72 road loss at Iowa on February 2nd in which the Fighting Illini blew a halftime lead. They also blew a halftime lead at Ohio State in their last game adding to their motivation. The Fighting Illini are 14-3 SU at home this season and will get their revenge.
Iowa is just 2-7 SU in true road games in Big Ten play with its only wins coming at Northwestern and Minnesota, which are two of the worst teams in the Big Ten. Six of their seven losses have come by 6 points or more and the seven losses are by an average of 12.4 points per game.
Iowa is 0-7 ATS in road games off a home loss over the last three seasons, losing by 14.3 points per game in this spot. The Hawkeyes are 15-36-2 ATS in their last 53 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%. The Fighting Illini are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. Roll with Illinois Sunday.
|03-08-20||Thunder v. Celtics -3.5||105-104||Loss||-109||7 h 42 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Celtics NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Boston -3.5
The Boston Celtics come in highly motivated for a win after going just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with losses in OT, by 1 and by 5 points. It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Celtics, who get Gordon Hayward back from injury.
The Thunder were one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA all season, especially on the road, but bettors are starting to catch on. The Clippers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. And I think they continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers now as only 3.5-point road dogs to the Celtics tonight.
The Celtics are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Thunder. Boston is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. Boston is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games. Take the Celtics Sunday.
|03-08-20||Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 226.5||Top||112-103||Win||100||4 h 12 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Clippers ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 226.5
When the best teams in the NBA meet up I usually look to the UNDER. The Lakers just beat the Bucks 113-103 at home on Friday in a game that went way UNDER the 228.5-point total. And this one will play out similarly with points harder to come by for these teams that normal.
It will be the 3rd meeting of the season between the Lakers and Clippers, so they are very familiar with one another. And the first two meetings saw just 214 and 217 combined points. So we are getting a ton of value here on this 226.5-point total with the UNDER.
The UNDER is 13-4-1 in Lakers last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 14-6-1 in the last 21 meetings. The UNDER is 19-9 in Clippers last 28 games after a combined score of 225 points or more. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|03-07-20||Kings v. Blazers -3||123-111||Loss||-109||13 h 9 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -3
This line has been adjusted too much for the Blazers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. They should be more than 3-point home favorites over the Sacramento Kings even with this situation.
It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Kings, who have gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. But Sacramento just lost outright to the short-handed 76ers 108-125 as 5.5-point home favorites. And I just can’t see them beating the Blazers on the road tonight.
Portland is 12-0 SU in its last 12 home meetings with Sacramento with 10 of those wins coming by 4 points or more. Those 12 wins have come by an average of 9.9 points pre game as well. The Kings haven’t won in Portland since 2012. Bet the Blazers Saturday.
|03-07-20||Rockets v. Hornets +8.5||Top||99-108||Win||100||8 h 8 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +8.5
The Charlotte Hornets have been grossly undervalued for weeks. They continue to be today as 8.5-point home underdogs to the Houston Rockets.
The Hornets are 5-5 SU but 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Three of those losses came to the Bucks by 8, Spurs by 1 and Nuggets by 2. They have been dcompetitive in basically every games and even pulled four road upsets over the Pistons, Timberwolves, Bulls and Raptors.
The Rockets are going to be without both Russell Westbrook (27.5 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 7.0 APG) and Eric Gordon (14.5 PPG) tonight. That’s a lot of production to be missing for a team that has to go on the road and win by 9-plus points to beat us.
Charlotte is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games off a loss by 6 points or less. The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites. They just lost outright as 10-point favorites at New York in their last road game. Roll with the Hornets Saturday.
|03-07-20||Louisville v. Virginia -104||54-57||Win||100||7 h 2 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia PK
Death, taxes and Virginia being underrated every year. All the Cavaliers have done is go 10-1 SU in their last 11 games overall with their only loss coming 73-80 at Louisville as 7-point dogs. Malik Williams (8.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG) had 13 points and 6 rebounds in that first meeting, but he won’t be playing today due to injury.
Now, the Cavaliers get their chance at revenge for their lone loss during this stretch. They host Louisville Saturday and just have to win to cover. Considering Virginia is 10-2 SU in the last 12 meetings, and 5-0 SU in the last five home meetings, that won’t be a problem.
Louisville is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three road games. It lost at Georgia Tech by 6 as 6-point favorites, at Clemson by 15 as 4.5-point favorites and at Florida State by 15 as 2.5-point dogs. The Cardinals are once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers on the road today.
Virginia is 13-1 SU off a win by 6 points or less over the last two seasons. Louisville is 1-6 SU in road games after allowing 55 points or less over the last two years. Roll with Virginia Saturday.
|03-07-20||Alabama v. Missouri -1||50-69||Win||100||6 h 32 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri -1
The Missouri Tigers have been a very tough out at home this season. They are 11-4 SU at home with some impressive wins against some of the top teams in the ACC. Now they take down Alabama on Senior Day.
Missouri is 4-1 SU in its last five home games with its only loss to Mississippi State by 4. The Tigers beat Ole Miss, Auburn, Arkansas and Georgia. They also beat Florida earlier this season at home.
Alabama is coming off an ugly 79-87 home loss to Vanderbilt as 12-point favorites. They’ve been playing without John Petty Jr. (15.0 PPG, 6.6 RPG) who remains questionable with an elbow injury. But I like Missouri whether or not he plays as the Crimson Tide are just 4-7 SU in true road games this season.
Plays against road dogs SU after being beaten by the spread by 18 points or more in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 48-11 (81.4%) SU since 1997. The Tigers basically just have to win SU to cover this short number. Take Missouri Saturday.
|03-07-20||Kansas v. Texas Tech +3.5||Top||66-62||Loss||-105||5 h 2 m||Show|
20* Kansas/Texas Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Texas Tech +3.5
After going losing three straight, including a 68-71 (OT) loss at Baylor as 7-point dogs last time out, Texas Tech needs a signature win to assure they make the NCAA Tournament. They get that opportunity today hosting Kansas.
Texas Tech will also be out for revenge from a tough 75-78 loss at Kansas as 8.5-point dogs on February 1st in their first meeting this season. They already proved they could play with the Jayhawks on the road, so they certainly can beat them at home.
It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Jayhawks, who have won 15 straight games coming in while going 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. But they failed to cover their last two in a 4-point win at Kansas State as 11.5-point favorites and a 9-point home win over TCU as 16-point favorites, two of the worst teams in the Big 12. They already clinched at least a share of the Big 12 title so they certainly won’t be as motivated as Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders are 13-3 SU in home games this season. Texas Tech is 6-0 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last two seasons. It is winning by 18.7 PPG in in this spot. The Red Raiders are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The home team is 22-10 ATS in the last 32 meetings. Take Texas Tech Saturday.
|03-07-20||Kentucky v. Florida -2.5||Top||71-70||Loss||-105||4 h 2 m||Show|
20* Kentucky/Florida CBS No-Brainer on Florida -2.5
Kentucky has already wrapped up the SEC regular season title. They also already beat Florida 65-59 at home two weeks ago on February 22nd. I could see them being really flat today.
That won’t be the case for the Gators, who are out for revenge and still trying to make sure they make the NCAA Tournament. The Gators are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only losses both coming on the road to Tennessee by 5 and Kentucky by 6.
Florida has been dominant at home here of late, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four home games while outscoring their opponents by 13.3 points per game. That includes a 15-point win over LSU and a 14-point win over Arkansas.
The Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite. The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Gators are 11-3 SU at home this season. Bet Florida Saturday.
|03-07-20||Wisconsin v. Indiana -2||60-56||Loss||-109||3 h 3 m||Show|
15* Wisconsin/Indiana ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -2
The Indiana Hoosiers are currently on Joe Lunardi’s ‘Last Four In’ line. They’ll be highly motivated for a home win over the Wisconsin Badgers today that would likely put them into the big dance.
Indiana is a sensational 15-3 SU at home this season. They basically just have to win to cover, and they want revenge from a bad loss at Wisconsin in their first meeting this season. The Badgers are just 5-9 SU in all road/neutral games this season.
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Wisconsin. The Badgers are 7-0 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. I could easily see them letting up here in their regular season finale as they have already earned a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament thanks to this seven-game winning streak.
The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Wisconsin is 1-8 ATS after playing a game where both teams scored 65 points or less this season. Indiana is 35-19 ATS in its last 56 home games with a line of +3 to -3. Bet Indiana Saturday.
|03-06-20||Bucks v. Lakers -1||Top||103-113||Win||100||12 h 47 m||Show|
20* Bucks/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -1
The Los Angeles Lakers want revenge from a 104-111 road loss at the Milwaukee Bucks in their first meeting this season. This is a huge statement game for them and one I expect them to win at home, where they are 22-7 SU this season.
The Lakers have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games overall. They come in fresh and ready to go working on two days’ rest after last playing on Tuesday night. The same cannot be said for the Bucks, who will be playing their 4th game in 6 days with a ton of travel in between.
The Bucks lost at Miami 89-105 as 4.5-point favorites in their last road game. So they are beatable on the highway, and I look for the Lakers to have their revenge tonight at home.
The Lakers are 14-4 ATS after winning three of their last four games this season. Milwaukee is 14-27 ATS in its last 41 road games with a line of +3 to -3. Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. Bet the Lakers Friday.
|03-06-20||Blazers -3.5 v. Suns||117-127||Loss||-105||10 h 12 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -3.5
The Portland Trail Blazers are 3.5 games back of the 8th seed in the West and in need of a big finish to make the playoffs. I know we’ll get a big effort from the Blazers moving forward because of it.
I was on the Blazers in Damian Lillard’s return Wednesday when they crushed Washington 125-104 at home. And I’ll back them again here against the Phoenix Suns, a team they have owned in going 11-1 SU in the last 12 meetings.
The Suns are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with all four losses coming at home and three of them by 9 points or more. Making matters worse for the Suns are injuries to Kelly Oubre Jr, DeAndre Ayton and Cameron Johnson that will keep all three out of the lineup tonight. That’s an average of 45.8 points per game they will be missing.
Phoenix is 1-9 ATS in home games after failing to cover five or six of their last seven ATS this season. The Suns are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 home games overall. Phoenix is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage below 40%. Take the Blazers Friday.
|03-06-20||Ball State v. Northern Illinois -1||Top||75-54||Loss||-110||9 h 7 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Illinois -1
I love the spot for Northern Illinois tonight. It’s Senior Day so this will be the Huskies’ final home game. And they want revenge from a 59-63 road loss at Ball State as 7-point dogs on February 11th.
I expect the Huskies to get their revenge at home this time around. Northern Illinois is 11-3 SU at home this season with its only losses coming to Northern Iowa, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Akron. The Huskies are 7-1 SU at home in MAC play this season. Ball State is just 2-7 SU in its last nine true road games.
Ball State is 1-9 ATS vs. good rebounding teams that average 4-plus more boards than their opponents over the last two seasons. Northern Illinois is 9-1 ATS vs. teams that win between 51% & 60% of their games over the last two years. The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. The Huskies are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage below 40%. Bet Northern Illinois Friday.
|03-06-20||Hawks +3 v. Wizards||112-118||Loss||-115||8 h 8 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Atlanta Hawks +3
Atlanta head coach Lloyd Pierce called out his team for their lack of effort in an 88-127 home loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday. They’ve had three days off since, so look for a big effort from them tonight when they visit the Washington Wizards.
While it’s a great spot for the Hawks, it’s a terrible one for the Wizards. They return home from a tough four-game road trip on West, and I like to fade teams when they return home from long road trips. It will be the 3rd game in 4 days and the 8th game in 13 days for the Wizards.
Atlanta is 47-20 ATS in its last 67 games off a home loss by 10 points or more. Washington is 10-24 ATS in its last 34 games after playing three consecutive road games. The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on three or more days’ rest. Roll with the Hawks Friday.
|03-06-20||Georgia Tech v. Clemson -4||65-62||Loss||-109||8 h 7 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson -4
The Clemson Tigers want revenge from a 59-68 road loss at Georgia Tech on February 25th less than two weeks ago. They don’t have to wait long for revenge, and they should get it at home this time around.
Clemson has been a very tough out at home here of late. The Tigers are 6-1 SU in their last seven home games which includes upset wins over Florida State as 3.5-point dogs, Louisville as 4.5-point dogs and Duke as 10.5-point dogs. They also beat NC State, Syracuse and Wake Forest.
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Yellow Jackets, who have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. But four of those wins were at home with their lone road win coming at lowly Wake Forest. Clemson is 18-4 SU & 13-9 ATS in its last 22 home meetings with Georgia Tech.
Clemson is 7-0 ATS in Friday games over the last three seasons. The Tigers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games off two straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 50% or higher. Plays against road teams (Georgia Tech) - off three or more consecutive wins in a game involving two winning teams (51% to 60%) are 50-22 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take Clemson Friday.
|03-05-20||California +15.5 v. Oregon||56-90||Loss||-110||12 h 29 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on California +15.5
The Cal Golden Bears have quietly gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as 15.5-point road underdogs to the Oregon Ducks tonight.
Cal only lost 72-77 at home to Oregon as 10.5-point dogs on January 30th in their first meeting this season. So they will be out for revenge and should have no problem staying within 15.5 points on the road in the rematch.
Cal is a sensational 14-3 ATS in its last 17 trips to Oregon. The Golden Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. at team with a winning percentage above 60%. Cal is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a conference home win. Oregon is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU win. Take California Thursday.
|03-05-20||Clippers +1 v. Rockets||120-105||Win||100||10 h 34 m||Show|
15* Clippers/Rockets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +1
The Los Angeles Clippers are making their case as being the best team in the NBA when healthy. And since they’ve been healthy the last few weeks, they’ve been on a roll in going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with those five wins coming by a whopping 17.4 points per game.
Now, the Clippers want revenge after losing two of their first three meetings this season with the Rockets. They want to square the season series, and I love their chances against this small ball Rockets lineup that has been out-rebounded in 14 straight games.
The Rockets are coming off an ugly 123-125 road loss to the New York Knicks as 10-point favorites. They found themselves down as many as 21 points in that game, and giving up offensive rebounds was a big culprit. The Clippers rank 6th in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage.
The Clippers are 26-14 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last two seasons. Doc Rivers is 65-41 ATS when revenging a SU loss as a favorite as the coach of the Clippers. The Rockets have given up 104 or more points in 28 straight games. Roll with the Clippers Thursday.
|03-05-20||Boise State v. UNLV -1||Top||67-61||Loss||-110||6 h 29 m||Show|
20* Boise State/UNLV Mountain West No-Brainer on UNLV -1
Nobody is playing better than UNLV in the Mountain West heading into the conference tournament. The Rebels are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall which includes upset road wins over New Mexico and San Diego State as 14.5-point dogs.
UNLV gets to play at home for the conference tournament, which is a huge advantage that isn’t being factored into the line enough. They won their last two home games over Colorado State by 24 and Boise State by 10 and are 12-6 SU at home this season. I realize that Elijah Mitrou-Long (12.6 PPG) is doubtful to play tonight for the Rebels, but they get back Donnie Tillman (10.1 PPG) from a five-game absence to make up for it.
Boise State is just 4-8 SU in true road games this season. And that 66-76 loss at UNLV was a bigger blowout than the score would indicate. UNLV led 60-33 with 10 minutes left before calling off the dogs. The Broncos outscored them by 17 in garbage time. You’ll get a focused UNLV for 40 minutes in this one and the result will be another blowout win in their favor.
T.J. Otzelberger is 15-4 ATS in home games off two straight wins in all games he has coached. The Rebels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. UNLV is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games following a win by more than 20 points. The Rebels are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Bet UNLV Thursday.
|03-04-20||Wizards v. Blazers -7.5||Top||104-125||Win||100||11 h 41 m||Show|
20* Wizards/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -7.5
This is an important time for the Portland Trail Blazers. They made the Western Conference Finals last season and now find themselves 3.5 games out of the 8th playoff spot in the West. It’s now or never for the Blazers.
Injuries have been a big reason for their poor season thus far, but they get Damian Lillard back from a seven-game absence tonight. They have gone just 2-6 in their last eight games overall with most of those on the road. But now they get seven of their next eight at home and a chance to make some serious headway.
After beating the Magic 130-107 as 6.5-point road dogs on Monday, the Blazers return home looking to continue their solid play. They host a tired Wizards team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA. Bradley Beal played 38 minutes in a 126-133 shooting loss at Sacramento last night. He and the Wizards won’t have much left in the tank tonight.
Washington is 2-11 ATS in road games after allowing 130 points or more over the last two seasons. The Wizards are 9-24 ATS in road games off an ATS loss over the last two years. Portland won 122-103 at Washington as identical 7.5-point road favorites in their first meeting this season. Bet the Blazers Wednesday.
|03-04-20||Magic +7 v. Heat||113-116||Win||100||8 h 11 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7
This is a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Orlando Magic, who have lost two straight coming in including a shocking 107-130 home loss to Portland as 6.5-point favorites. Aaron Gordon did not play in that game and there’s a good chance he returns tonight.
It’s also a great time to ’sell high’ on the Miami Heat, who have won three straight and are coming off a shocking 105-89 home win over the Milwaukee Bucks as 4.5-point dogs. The Bucks haven’t been beaten many times this season, so it’s only human nature for the Heat to have an emotional letdown off that huge win.
The Magic were playing very well prior to that loss to the Blazers. They have gone 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight games. This will be their 4th and final meeting with the Heat, and after losing two of the first three, they will be motivated to square the season series at two games apiece.
Miami is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 home games off a home win. The Heat are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games off a blowout win by 15 points or more. Orlando is 12-3 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games over the last two seasons. Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following an ATS win. The Heat are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win. Orlando is 5-2 ATS in its last seven trips to Miami. Take the Magic Wednesday.
|03-04-20||Florida International +9.5 v. Louisiana Tech||73-76||Win||100||8 h 6 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Florida International +9.5
I was on Florida International when they lost 57-60 at LA Tech as 10-point dogs on February 13th. So I’m certainly taking them again in the rematch at LA Tech as 9.5-point dogs this time around.
This has simply been a bad match for LA Tech in recent years. FIU is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with LA Tech despite being the underdog in all four. They have an excellent shot of pulling the upset again tonight.
Asking LA Tech to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. The Bulldogs are just 4-3 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall and have been grossly overvalued here down the stretch. Their four wins during this stretch have come by 3, 3, 2 and 13 points.
LA Tech is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games off three straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better. FIU is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Roll with Florida International Wednesday.
|03-04-20||Minnesota v. Indiana -3.5||67-72||Win||100||8 h 37 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana -3.5
The Indiana Hoosiers are on the bubble and cannot afford a loss to Minnesota tonight. They should make easy work of the Golden Gophers just as they did when they won 68-56 as 5.5-point road dogs at Minnesota on February 19th in their first meeting this season.
Minnesota is just 1-5 SU in its last six games overall to play its way out of NCAA Tournament contention. The Golden Gophers put a lot of energy into two straight heartbreaking losses to Maryland by 1 and Wisconsin by 2. I don’t think they’ll be able to get back up off the mat in time to face an Indiana team that simply wants it more tonight.
Indiana is 14-3 SU at home this season. The Hoosiers are 13-3 SU & 10-6 ATS in their last 16 home meetings with Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are just 2-9 SU in true road games this season with eight of those nine losses coming by 4 points or more.
The Hoosiers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Gophers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Hoosiers are 12-3 ATS vs. bad pressure teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in road games revenging a loss where they scored less than 60 points over the last three seasons. Take Indiana Wednesday.
|03-04-20||LSU v. Arkansas -3||Top||90-99||Win||100||8 h 37 m||Show|
20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas -3
The Arkansas Razorbacks have been a completely different team with Isaiah Joe (16.9 PPG) in the lineup. They recently lost five straight games that he missed due to an injury.
But the Razorbacks are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS since his return with wins over Missouri by 10 and Tennessee by 17 at home with their only loss coming at Georgia. The Razorbacks need to win these last two games to play their way into the NCAA Tournament. It starts tonight with LSU at home.
Adding to Arkansas’ motivation is that it will be out for revenge from a 77-79 loss at LSU in their first meeting on January 8th. The Razorbacks are 13-4 SU at home this season and should be able to handle a struggling Tigers team that is just 3-5 SU in their last eight games overall and 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
LSU is 1-8 ATS off a conference win this season. Arkansas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games after two straight games where it made 78% or better from the FT line. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. Bet Arkansas Wednesday.
|03-03-20||Raptors -4 v. Suns||Top||123-114||Win||100||10 h 1 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -4
The Toronto Raptors will be highly motivated for a win tonight. They have lost three straight coming in with two of those losses to the Nuggets and Bucks. They haven’t lost four straight all season, and they aren’t about to tonight.
The Raptors had gone 17-1 SU in their previous 18 games prior to this three-game losing streak. They have been playing without Fred VanVleet and Serge Ibaka during this skid, which has something to do with it. But both have a chance to return tonight. Even if they don’t, they’re deep enough to beat the Suns here.
Phoenix is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall with three straight home losses to the Clippers by 10, the Pistons as 9-point favorites and the Warriors by 16 as 11-point favorites. They aren’t playing well at all right now, and they recently lost Kelly Oubre Jr. to a season-ending knee injury.
The Raptors are 5-0 SU in their last four meetings with the Suns with four of those five wins coming by 6 points or more. Toronto is 38-16 ATS in its last 54 games playing on one days’ rest. Phoenix is 18-37-2 ATS in its last 57 games playing on two days’ rest. The Suns are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 home games. Phoenix is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage above 60%. The Suns are 2-14 ATS off a division loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. Bet the Raptors Tuesday.
|03-03-20||Purdue v. Iowa -4.5||Top||77-68||Loss||-107||10 h 57 m||Show|
20* Purdue/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa -4.5
The gift that keeps on giving is betting Iowa at home. The Hawkeyes are 14-1 SU & 11-2-2 ATS at home this season. That includes 11-0 SU & 9-0-2 ATS at home in Big Ten play. And now the Hawkeyes are highly motivated for revenge from their worst loss of the season at Purdue in their first meeting on February 5th.
The Hawkeyes are even more potent now after getting C.J. Fredrick (10.7 PPG, 46.8% 3-pointers) back from an ankle injury in their 77-68 home win over Penn State over the weekend. Purdue shot 63.1% as a team and 55.9% from 3-point range while draining 19 3-pointers against Iowa in their first meeting. That’s not going to happen again.
Purdue is 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games overall. The Boilermakers are 4-10 SU & 3-10-1 ATS in all games played away from home this season. That includes 2-7 SU & 1-7-1 ATS in all Big Ten road games with their only wins coming at Northwestern by 3 and Indiana. Their seven losses have come by an average of 11.4 points per game.
Iowa is 8-0 ATS in home games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this season. Purdue is 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog. The Hawkeyes are 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take Iowa Tuesday.
|03-03-20||Mississippi State v. South Carolina -2||71-83||Win||100||7 h 26 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Carolina -2
The South Carolina Gamecocks have gone 10-5 SU & 10-5 ATS in their last 15 SEC games to play their way into NCAA Tournament contention. And it’s worth noting that each of their last three losses all came by 6 points or less, so they have been competitive in almost every game.
That includes their 76-79 loss at Mississippi State on February 19th just a few weeks ago. Now the Gamecocks want revenge on the Bulldogs at home this time around. South Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last seven home games outscoring opponents by an average of 10.1 points per game during this stretch at home.
Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings and 4-0 SU in the last four. Mississippi State is 4-6 SU In true road games this season with its only wins coming at Coastal Carolina, Florida, Arkansas and Missouri.
South Carolina is 16-6 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons. Mississippi State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win. The Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS after having won five or six of their last seven games this season. Roll with South Carolina Tuesday.
|03-02-20||Rockets v. Knicks +10.5||123-125||Win||100||8 h 0 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +10.5
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Houston Rockets tonight. The Rockets are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and coming off a huge overtime win at Boston on Sunday. They won’t be able to get up for the Knicks tonight.
That’s especially the case considering the Rockets just beat the Knicks 123-112 at home as 13.5-point favorites on February 24th. Now the Knicks get their shot at revenge just a week later. And after only losing by 11 on the road, I have no doubt they can stay within single-digits at home in the rematch.
The Knicks have quietly been a very profitable team to back thus far in 2020. New York has gone 10-6-1 ATS in its last 17 games overall. They have gone 6-3 ATS at home during this stretch including home losses to the Lakers, Raptors and 76ers by 8, 6 and 3 points, respectively.
New York is 17-8 ATS when revenging a same-season loss this season. The Rockets are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Houston is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games as a road favorite. The Knicks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games playing on one days’ rest. New York is 5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.
Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (New York) - in non-conference games, a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 65-29 (69.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Knicks Monday.
|03-02-20||Jazz -8.5 v. Cavs||Top||126-113||Win||100||8 h 60 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -8.5
It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Utah Jazz tonight. They are 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games which have all come since the All-Star Break. Now they get a team they can handle here in the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers.
Cleveland played well in its first few games under interim coach JB Bickerstaff. But the Cavaliers have come back down to reality in their last two, losing by 12 on the road to the Pelicans and by 9 at home to the Pacers. I expect them to suffer a double-digit loss tonight.
Cleveland has been hit hard by injuries since the All-Star Break. They will be without Tristan Thompson, Darius Garland, Dante Exum and Alfonzo McKinnie tonight. Those four combine to average 33.3 points per game so that’s a lot of production they’ll be missing. Conversely, the Jazz are fully healthy. They have won their last two meetings with the Cavaliers by 16 points at home and by 26 points on the road.
The Jazz are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%. Utah is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games following a win. The Jazz are 6-0-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet the Jazz Monday.
|03-01-20||Lakers v. Pelicans +2.5||Top||122-114||Loss||-105||10 h 4 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Pelicans ESPN No-Brainer on New Orleans +2.5
The New Orleans Pelicans are 19-10 SU & 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall. That includes 9-4 SU in their last 13 games with their only losses coming to the Rockets, Bucks, Thunder & Lakers.
Now the Pelicans want revenge from three losses already to the Lakers this season. They don’t want to get swept, and it’s worth noting that they were competitive in all three losses as they all came by 10 points or less. And they just played on February 25th in Los Angeles so New Orleans doesn’t have to wait long for this revenge opportunity.
While the Pelicans are rested playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, the Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days. They lost 88-105 in Memphis last night as 11-point favorites. And don’t be surprised if LeBron James and/or Anthony Davis sits tonight as both are battling through injury.
The Lakers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days. The Pelicans are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog. Los Angeles is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with the Lakers. Roll with the Pelicans Sunday.
|03-01-20||Colorado v. Stanford -1||64-72||Win||100||8 h 11 m||Show|
15* Colorado/Stanford ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Stanford -1
The Stanford Cardinal have played their way back to the ‘first four out’ line. The Cardinal have gotten healthy and have played up to their potential over the last few weeks. Now they really have a chance to add to their resume with a win over a ranked Colorado team Sunday.
Stanford is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. The Cardinal went on the road and beat Washington by 8 and Washington State by 18. They also beat Utah at home by 8. The Cardinal are 13-4 SU & 11-6 ATS at home this season. They hung tough in a 74-81 loss at Colorado on February 8th as 8.5-point dogs. They led that game by 11 at halftime and now want revenge.
Colorado has been grossly overvalued of late due to that Top 25 ranking. The Buffaloes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. They lost at home to UCLA by 7 as 10-point favorites and were upset at California by 16 as 8.5-point favorites in their last two games coming in. We’ll keep ’selling high’ on the Buffaloes today.
The Buffaloes are 14-40-1 ATS in their last 55 road games. Colorado is 12-38-1 ATS in its last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Stanford is 30-12 ATS in its last 42 home games. The Cardinal are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games as a home favorite. Take Stanford Sunday.
|03-01-20||Wichita State v. SMU -1||Top||66-62||Loss||-115||6 h 11 m||Show|
20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU -1
The SMU Mustangs have come up big with wins over Houston and Memphis recently that help their tournament resume. Now they get another good chance here to inch closer to the bubble by beating a fellow bubble team in Wichita State.
Considering SMU is 15-1 at home this season, this is a great value for the Mustangs today as a short 1-point favorite. They are 8-0 at home in conference play and home one of the best home-court advantages in the AAC.
SMU has the rest advantage here last playing on February 25th while Wichita State last played on February 27th. The Shockers have basically lost to all the best teams they have faced on the road this season. They are 2-4 SU in their last six AAC road games with their only wins coming over UCF and USF. They lost to Temple, Tulsa, Houston and Cincinnati by an average of 12.8 points per game.
Wichita State is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record, including 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. teams that win between 60% & 80% of their games like SMU. The Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. Bet SMU Sunday.
|02-29-20||Arizona v. UCLA +3.5||64-69||Win||100||23 h 28 m||Show|
15* Arizona/UCLA ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA +3.5
Mick Cronin has the UCLA Bruins in first place in the Pac-12, tied with Oregon. The Bruins have put themselves in this position by going 10-2 SU & 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall with their only two losses coming on the road to ASU and Oregon.
UCLA is a perfect 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in its last six home games. The Bruins face a reeling Arizona team that is coming off back-to-back upset losses to Oregon at home and USC on the road. There’s no way Arizona should be favored on the road tonight with their injury situation.
The Wildcats will be without Josh Green (11.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG) for a second straight game due to a back injury. They could also be without Max Hazzard (5.5 PPG) for a second straight game due to personal reasons. Arizona’s offense was dreadful in the 48-57 loss at USC without these two on Thursday.
UCLA upset Arizona 65-52 as 12.5-point road underdogs on February 8th in their first meeting. Sean Miller is just 9-19 ATS revenging a same-season loss as the coach of the Wildcats. Arizona is 2-9 ATS in road games off a loss over the last two seasons. UCLA is 10-2 ATS in home games off a conference win over the last three years. The underdog is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings. Take UCLA Saturday.
|02-29-20||Magic v. Spurs -3||Top||113-114||Loss||-109||10 h 11 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -3
The Orlando Magic just played in a taxing 136-125 home win over the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves last night. Now the Magic will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days while having to travel to San Antonio overnight.
The Spurs come in highly motivated for a victory off back-to-back losses to two of the best teams in the NBA in the Thunder and Mavericks. And they had beaten the Jazz on the road as 7-point dogs and Thunder as 8-point dogs outright in their previous two games. They finally get a break in the schedule here and will take advantage.
While the Magic will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days, the Spurs are rested and ready to go. San Antonio comes in on two days’ rest having last played on Wednesday. They also will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. I’ll gladly side with the fresher, more motivated team tonight.
The Magic are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games playing on zero rest. Orlando is 1-8 ATS off two straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots this season. San Antonio is 35-10 ATS revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. The Spurs are 11-1 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive losses over the last two years. The Magic are 0-9 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 46% or more of their shots in the 2nd half of the season this season. Bet the Spurs Saturday.
|02-29-20||Lakers v. Grizzlies UNDER 226.5||88-105||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Grizzlies UNDER 226.5
The Memphis Grizzlies just lost both Jaren Jackson Jr. (16.9 PPG) and Brandon Clark (12.0 PPG) to injuries. Their offense has really faltered without these two scoring 101 points against Sacramento, 112 against Houston and 97 against the Clippers in their last three games, respectively.
The Lakers have some injuries of their own that will hamper them offensively. LeBron James (25.5 PPG) missed last game and is highly questionable with a groin injury. Anthony Davis (26.6 PPG) is trying to play through an elbow injury, and Danny Green (8.4 PPG) is doubtful with a hip injury.
These teams just played on February 21st just over a week ago in a 117-105 home win for the Lakers and 222 combined points. So they are very familiar with one another, and familiarity favors defense. Jackson Jr. and Clarke both played in that game, as did James and Green, and there’s a good chance none of those four will play in the rematch.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 210 or higher (Memphis) - off four or more consecutive losses against an opponent that is off four or more consecutive wins are 72-34 (67.9%) since 1996. Memphis is 12-3 UNDER off four or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.
The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings with 222 or fewer combined points in all seven games and an average of just 209 points per game, which is 17.5 points less than this 226.5-point total. The UNDER is 5-0 in Lakers last five vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 9-0 in Grizzlies last nine home games. These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|02-29-20||Arizona State v. USC -3||Top||61-71||Win||100||21 h 29 m||Show|
20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on USC -3
The USC Trojans want revenge form a tough 64-66 road loss at Arizona State earlier this month on February 8th. The Trojans led that game 40-32 at halftime on the road and feel like they let one get away.
Now, the Trojans will be highly motivated for a win at home tonight where they are 12-2 SU this season. They just got back Matthews (12.9 PPG) and Rakocevic (10.6 PPG, 8.3 RPG) from illness and promptly beat Arizona 57-48 as 4.5-point home underdogs on Thursday.
Arizona State is coming off a tough 72-75 road loss at UCLA on a 3-pointer at the buzzer. Now they have to try and get back up off the mat just two days later and hit the road again to face a USC team that will be motivated for revenge. That’s the type of loss that can beat a team twice.
USC is 17-4 SU & 12-9 ATS in its last 21 home meetings with Arizona State. The Trojans are 12-4 ATS vs. conference opponents this season. USC is 8-1 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games this season. The Trojans are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Take USC Saturday.
|02-29-20||San Diego State v. Nevada +5.5||Top||83-76||Loss||-109||21 h 28 m||Show|
25* Mountain West GAME OF THE YEAR on Nevada +5.5
Expectations are finally catching up to the San Diego State Aztecs. Their 27-1 record and No. 5 national ranking come with expectations that are hard to live up to. That has certainly shown in their last two games.
The Aztecs lost outright as 14.5-point home favorites 63-66 to UNLV last Saturday. Then they found themselves in a dog fight in a 66-60 home win over Colorado State as 13.5-point favorites on Tuesday. And now they have to face arguably the hottest team in the Mountain West in Nevada.
Nevada is 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall. The Wolf Pack boast one of the best players in the country in Jalen Harris (21.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG), who has scored at least 20 points in eight straight games coming in. They actually led 35-33 at halftime at San Diego State in their first meeting. You know they want revenge at home where they are 12-2 SU on the season this time around.
The home team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The Wolf Pack are 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Aztecs. Bet Nevada Saturday.
|02-29-20||BYU v. Pepperdine +8||81-64||Loss||-109||19 h 28 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pepperdine +8
The spot couldn’t be worse for BYU. The Cougars are coming off one of their biggest wins in program history, a 91-78 home win over Gonzaga as 4-point underdogs. That win cemented their spot in the NCAA Tournament no matter what they do the rest of the way.
It’s an obvious letdown spot for the Cougars, who are just 5-5 SU in true road games this season. And they certainly won’t be motivated to face a Pepperdine team that they already beat by 27 at home in their first meeting this season.
Conversely, Pepperdine wants revenge from that defeat and to show that they can play with BYU. The Waves are 9-4 SU at home this season with three of those losses coming by single-digits. The only exception was a 12-point loss to Gonzaga as 15-point dogs.
Plays on home teams (Pepperdine) - revenging. Blowout loss by 20 points or more, off a close loss by 3 points or less to a conference opponent are 56-21 (72.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Lorenzo Romar is 11-1 ATS in home games after a combined score of 125 points or less in two straight games as a head coach.
Pepperdine is 4-4 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight home meetings with BYU with all four wins in upset fashion. BYU is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games with a total set of 150 to 159.5. Pepperdine is 11-3 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of its games after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. Bet Pepperdine Saturday.