|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-29-12||Maryland Terrapins +18.5 v. North Carolina||64-88||Loss||-115||9 h 19 m||Show|
15* Maryland/UNC ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Maryland +18.5
The Maryland Terrapins look to shock the work Wednesday when they travel to Chapel Hill to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels. I have no doubt the Terrapins can make a game out of this as they'll be more jacked up for this game than any other game of the season.
The Terrapins still have an outside shot at making the NCAA Tournament. They play UNC tonight and then Virginia next, so those two wins would certainly look great on a resume. Maryland will be laying it all on the line tonight as they look to revenge a 74-83 home loss to the Tar Heels in their first meeting this season on February 4th.
UNC is in a huge letdown spot tonight. The Tar Heels will travel to face Duke on Saturday with the ACC title at stake no matter what happens in this game. That is one of the best rivalries in all of sports, so there's no question it's going to be tough for UNC not to overlook Maryland. They will overlook the Terrapins just enough to allow them to cover this inflated number.
The Terrapins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Maryland is 36-17-3 ATS in their last 56 Wednesday games. The Terrapins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Tar Heels. They haven't lost to North Carolina by more than 17 in any of those seven contests. Take Maryland Wednesday.
|02-29-12||Penn State v. Purdue -11.5||56-80||Win||100||8 h 23 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Purdue -11.5
Purdue is going to be highly motivated tonight when they take on the Penn State Nittany Lions. First and foremost, the Boilermakers (19-10) are safely in the NCAA Tournament right now, but they know a lost tonight would severely hurt their chances.
The Boilermakers want serious payback tonight from their most embarrassing loss of the season; a 45-65 setback at Penn State. They will also be pumped for Senior Night and to win this one for Robbie Hummel (16.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG), who has meant everything to this program.
Purdue has saved some of their best basketball for last. After topping Nebraska 83-65 at home, the Boilermakers went on to pick up their most impressive road win of the season last time out. They went into Ann Arbor and came away with a 75-61 victory at Michigan. Penn State (12-17) has little to play for tonight.
Penn State is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog. Purdue is 6-0 ATS in home games after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The Boilermakers are 6-0 ATS after 2 straight games committing 8 or less turnovers this season. These three trends make for a 22-1 (96%) system backing the home team. Bet Purdue Wednesday.
|02-28-12||Xavier +8 v. St. Louis||Top||59-70||Loss||-108||11 h 55 m||Show|
25* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on Xavier +8
The Xavier Musketeers are the definition of a bubble team. They have so much at stake tonight that getting 8 points is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. I'll back the Musketeers in a game I believe they are likely to win outright.
Xavier opened 8-0 this season with wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, Butler, Georgia and Cincinnati. But they got in a brawl with the Bearcats in their 76-53 win over Cincinnati, and they just haven't quite been the same team since. They simply haven't been living up to their potential.
I look for the Musketeers to bring their "A" game tonight with what's at stake. Joe Lunardi currently has them as a "last 4 in" team in terms of the NCAA Tournament, but a loss tonight would put them on the outside looking in. They also trail Saint Louis by just one game in the Atlantic 10 standings.
Xavier lost 68-73 at home to Saint Louis in their first meeting, so there's no question they want some revenge tonight. This is still one of the more talented teams in the country, and they will put their best foot forward in this one. Star guards Tu Holloway (16.9 PPG, 5.6 APG) and Mark Lyons (15.7 PPG) will rise to the occasion.
Saint Louis is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 15 or less fouls. The Billikens are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Xavier has won seven of their last eight meetings with Saint Louis, so to say the Billikens' earlier win over the Musketeers this season was rare would be an understatement. Bet Xavier Tuesday.
|02-28-12||DePaul v. West Virginia -13||75-92||Win||100||9 h 55 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on West Virginia -13
West Virginia finds themselves squarely on the bubble after back-to-back losses to Notre Dame and Marquette. Highly motivated and playing for their tournament lives, the Mountaineers will come out with one of their best efforts of the season Tuesday.
It should be enough to cover this spread against the lowly DePaul Blue Demons. It has been a lost season for DePaul as they are just 11-17 on the year, including 2-14 in conference play. They are giving up a ridiculous 81.4 points on 50.1 percent shooting in Big East action, essentially playing no defense.
West Virginia has won each of its last six meetings with DePaul dating back to 2007. Five of those six wins came by double-digits. The Blue Demons are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. Big East, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater.
WVU head coach Bob Huggins has been amazing in this spot. Huggins is 14-3 ATS in his last 17 after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread as the coach of West Virginia. He'll have his troops ready to go tonight in their most important game of the season. Take West Virginia Tuesday.
|02-28-12||Golden State Warriors v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 202||78-102||Win||100||8 h 59 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Pacers UNDER 202
The Golden State Warriors and Indiana Pacers will take part in a defensive battle tonight that doesn't reach 200 combined points. Oddsmakers have inflated this total quite a bit in a game that I believe will be played in the high 180's or low 190's.
Golden State head coach Mark Jackson has brought a defensive-minded approach to the Warriors. While their defensive numbers (100.7 PPG allowed) won't "wow" you, it's certainly a huge improvement over the types of numbers they have posted over the last decade. This team can defend, and they will certainly miss Stephen Curry (foot) offensively as he is listed as doubtful.
Indiana has been one of the better defensive teams in the league all season. They score 95.5 points and give up 92.5 points for an average combined score of 188.0 points/game. As you can see, that average is well below the posted total tonight. I look for the Pacers to control the tempo at home tonight and to slow it down.
These teams met once already this season with Indiana beating Golden State 94-91 on the road for 185 combined points. That total was set at 193.5 going in, so I just see no way oddsmakers can justify setting this total all the way up above 200 points. The clear value is with the UNDER in this one.
Indiana is 16-4 UNDER in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons. Golden State is 41-25 UNDER revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 11-5-1 in Pacers last 17 home games. The UNDER is 13-4 in Warriors last 17 vs. NBA Central. The Warriors are 51-32 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|02-27-12||Kansas v. Oklahoma State +9.5||Top||70-58||Loss||-108||22 h 38 m||Show|
20* Kansas/Oky State ESPN Big 12 No-Brainer on Oklahoma State +9.5
The Kansas Jayhawks are in the ideal letdown spot tonight against an underrated Oklahoma State team that has been great at home all year. The Jayhawks just clinched at least a share of the Big 12 title with their 87-86 overtime victory over Missouri on Saturday.
Kansas will not be able to match the intensity they brought to that game against the Tigers, which had everything at stake. Now, Kansas knows that they have already won an eighth consecutive Big 12 regular-season title and no matter what happens tonight they'll have a chance to win it outright with a home victory over Texas in their finale.
Oklahoma State is an upset-minded team this season. The Cowboys beat Missouri at home 79-72 earlier this season, handing the Tigers one of their three losses. After their 60-42 victory versus Texas A&M over the weekend, the Cowboys are now 11-3 at home this year while outscoring opponents by 8.9 points/game. Oky State is 38-16-3 ATS in their last 57 home games.
The Cowboys only lost by 13 at Kansas in their first meeting, and I have no doubt they'll be able to stay within 9 points at home this time around. Oklahoma State is a perfect 7-0 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. The Jayhawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5. Take this 12-0 system backing the Cowboys straight to the bank tonight. Bet Oklahoma State Monday.
|02-26-12||Florida State v. Miami (Fla) -1.5||Top||62-78||Win||100||8 h 36 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami -1.5
The Miami Hurricanes are showing great value today as just a 1.5-point home favorite over the Florida State Seminoles. While FSU has clearly earned their spot in the NCAA Tournament, Miami needs to finish strong to get into the Big Dance. They'll certainly be motivated Sunday for a win over FSU, which would boost their resume.
Miami is 16-10 on the season, including 11-3 at home where they are outscoring opponents by 7.6 points/game. The Seminoles are in a huge letdown spot after their 66-74 home loss to Duke last time out. Plus, FSU won the first meeting with Miami 64-59 at home, so there's no question the Hurricanes will be the more motivated team tonight.
Florida State is 6-20 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. The Seminoles are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. ACC opponents. The home team has won six of the last eight meetings in this series. Miami is 44-24 ATS versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=39% since 1997. Bet Miami Sunday.
|02-25-12||Stanford v. Utah +12||Top||57-58||Win||100||10 h 22 m||Show|
25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah +12
The Utah Utes are showing their best value of the season Saturday as a double-digit home underdog to Stanford. This team is out of the spotlight due to having a poor season record-wise, which means the betting public has steered clear from them. It has provided us with ample value to pull the trigger here.
Stanford is a quality team this season, but they have no business laying double-digits on the road. The Cardinal are a mediocre 6-6 on the road this year. In their first meeting with Utah this season, Stanford won 68-65 at home as a 22.5-point favorite. Now they're being asked to lay double-digits on the road? Give me a break.
Despite being on an 8-game losing streak, the Utes have been playing some of their best basketball of the season of late. Utah is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, with three of their losses coming by 9 points or less, and the other by 14 points to Cal, which is the best team in the Pac-12.
Utah is 6-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive unders this season. The Utes are 6-0 ATS off an embarrassing home loss scoring less than 60 points this season. Utah is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. These three trends make for a perfect 16-0 system backing the Utes tonight. Bet Utah Saturday.
|02-25-12||Middle Tenn. St. v. Western Kentucky +9||67-73||Win||100||8 h 52 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Western Kentucky +9
Western Kentucky already took Middle Tennessee State down to the wire in their first meeting. The Hilltoppers would fall 64-72 to the Blue Raiders on February 9th on the road just a little over two weeks ago. I like their chances to stay within 8 points once again at home this time around.
While WKU is just 10-18 on the season, this team has been playing much better basketball of late than their record would indicate. The Hilltoppers are 5-4 in their last nine games overall, with all four of those losses coming by 8 points or less.
Western Kentucky is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall, covering 80% of the time. MTSU is way overvalued right now due to their 25-4 record, which is indicated by the fact that they are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Hilltoppers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Take Western Kentucky Saturday.
|02-25-12||Missouri +7.5 v. Kansas||86-87||Win||100||6 h 52 m||Show|
15* Mizzou/Kansas CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Missouri +7.5
The Missouri Tigers and Kansas Jayhawks have a lot on the line in this Big 12 showdown. The winner will have the inside track to the Big 12 title. Kansas would win the regular season conference title with a win, while Missouri would hold the tiebreaker with a victory.
I look for this one to go right down to the wire and be decided within the last couple of possessions. Missouri already beat Kansas 74-71 in their first meeting, and I have no doubt they are capable of going on the road and capping off the season sweep today.
The Tigers are 25-3 on the year and 10-2 on the road this season. They should not be this big of an underdog to any team in the country, let alone Kansas. Somehow, Missouri just doesn't get the respect they deserve, and that's clearly evident with this line.
The Tigers are 6-0 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots this season. Missouri is 12-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Kansas is 1-7 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. Roll with Missouri Saturday.
|02-24-12||Canisius +17.5 v. Manhattan||Top||77-90||Win||100||11 h 35 m||Show|
20* MAAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Canisius +17.5
This line has certainly been inflated tonight and I'll take full advantage. While Canisius is just 5-22 on the season and Manhattan is 19-10, there's no question the clear value is with the big underdog in this one.
Canisius has played much better of late with each of their last five games being decided by 11 or less points. They even picked up a rare win over MD-Balt County last time out, giving them confidence heading into this one.
Manhattan trails three teams in the MAAC standings with two games to play, and they are two games down. This team realizes their chances of winning the conference are slim to none, and I look for them to let down tonight because of it.
Manhattan beat Canisius by 12 points on the road earlier this season by a final of 78-66. I look for a similar margin of victory tonight in the rematch. The road team is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings dating back to 2008. Canisius is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 Friday games. Bet Canisius Friday.
|02-23-12||Brigham Young v. Gonzaga -6||63-74||Win||100||16 h 44 m||Show|
15* BYU/Gonzaga ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Gonzaga -6
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are out for revenge tonight against the BYU Cougars. BYU would beat the Zags in their first meeting in Provo by a final of 83-73. I expect another double-digit victory again, but by the Bulldogs this time around.
A great example of how this team plays in revenge mode came against St. Mary's earlier this season. After losing to the Gaels on the road 62-83, the Zags came back to beat them 73-59 at home. Coming off a 1-point loss at San Francisco will only add more fuel to the fire tonight.
Gonzaga is 14-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.4 points/game. The Cougars are 22-47 ATS in their last 69 games as an underdog, including 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The Cougars are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games following a ATS win. Roll with Gonzaga Thursday.
|02-23-12||New York Knicks +10 v. Miami Heat||Top||88-102||Loss||-123||12 h 49 m||Show|
20* Knicks/Heat NBA on TNT No-Brainer on New York +10
The New York Knicks are showing solid value Thursday as a double-digit underdog to the Miami Heat. This team is hitting on all cylinders right now and they're ready to prove they are for real by giving the Eastern Conference-leading Heat a run for their money.
I see this game being decided by single-digits either way as the Knicks continue to play their best basketball of the season behind Jeremy Lin. They have won nine of their last 11 games and just recently got Carmelo Anthony back from injury.
New York played very well as a team in their 99-82 victory over Atlanta last night, and I look for them to carry that momentum into Miami tonight. The Heat are way overvalued right now due to their 7-game winning streak and this is clearly the perfect time to fade them.
The Knicks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. New York is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings with the Heat. These three trends make for a perfect 17-0 system backing New York. Bet the Knicks Thursday.
|02-23-12||Detroit v. Cleveland State -3||64-77||Win||100||12 h 44 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland State -3
Cleveland State has hit a rough patch of late, which has them way undervalued heading into this contest with Detroit. After five straight losses SU & ATS, now is the time to back the Vikings at home tonight.
CSU is still 20-9 on the season and one of the better teams in the country that not too many folks know about. I have no doubt this team will respond in a big way tonight to put an end to this skid against overmatched Detroit.
The favorite is 18-7 ATS in the last 25 meetings, which includes a 66-61 road victory by Cleveland State as a 2.5-point favorite in their first meeting this season on December 3rd. Detroit is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Cleveland State Thursday.
|02-22-12||Denver Nuggets +9 v. Los Angeles Clippers||95-103||Win||100||10 h 1 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +9
The Denver Nuggets should not be catching nine points against the Los Angeles Clippers. While Denver is dealing with some injuries, this is one of the deepest teams in the league and they are still a dangerous opponent in the Western Conference short-handed.
Denver has played some of their best basketball on the road this season, going 9-8 SU and a very profitable 12-5 ATS. They are putting up a whopping 106.1 points/game away from home this year, and took Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City to overtime in their last road contest.
The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games this season. Denver is 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog. The Nuggets are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 road games dating back to last year. Take the Nuggets Wednesday.
|02-22-12||Los Angeles Lakers +5 v. Dallas Mavericks||Top||96-91||Win||100||9 h 1 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Mavs ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles +5
The Los Angeles Lakers want revenge from getting swept by the Dallas Mavericks in the playoffs last year. While the Lakers already beat the Mavs earlier this season at home in their first meeting, there's no question that they will continue to want payback tonight.
Knowing the nature of Kobe Bryant, he's going to hold that against the Mavs until the end of his career. Every time he plays Dallas, he's going to remember getting swept in 2011. Behind a motivated effort, I look for the Lakers to win this game outright.
L.A. played arguably their best game of the season in a 103-92 victory over Portland last time out. They moved the ball great on offense, and held the Blazers to just 30 points in the first half before letting off the gas after intermission. The team held a players' only meeting after that win, which should only bring the Lakers closer together.
The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Mavericks are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. The road team is 13-6-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings. Bet the Lakers Wednesday.
|02-22-12||Kansas v. Texas A&M +10.5||66-58||Win||100||8 h 25 m||Show|
15* Kansas/Texas A&M ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Texas A&M +10.5
Texas A&M already proved that they could play with Kansas in their first meeting. The Aggies hung tough as a 19-point road underdog, but eventually lost 64-54. I like their chances of staying within 10 point at home in the rematch tonight.
The Aggies have certainly underachieved with their talent to this point of the season. They were supposed to be an NCAA Tournament team this year, but I know what they're capable of. Texas A&M will certainly be motivated to face Kansas tonight, and I believe they'll give the Jayhawks a run for their money.
Texas A&M is 7-1 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games this season. Kansas is 0-6 ATS in road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Take Texas A&M Wednesday.
|02-22-12||Philadelphia 76ers v. Houston Rockets -4||87-93||Win||100||8 h 31 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -4
The Houston Rockets are one of the more underrated teams in the league this season. Philadelphia is certainly overrated right now due to their fast start. I'll lay this small number with the Rockets at home in a game I see them winning by 7-plus tonight.
The 76ers are overvalued right now because they are 20-13, but they have played 19 home games compared to 14 road games this season. They have finally started to play more road games here of late, and are 0-3 in their last three road games.
Philly is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall, including a 76-89 loss at Memphis last night. They will be playing their second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days while the Rockets come in on a days' rest. The Rockets are 13-4 at home this season, winning by 6.7 points/game.
The 76ers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. Philly is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. The 76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These four trends make for a perfect 20-0 system backing Houston. Roll with the Rockets Wednesday.
|02-22-12||West Virginia v. Notre Dame -2.5||44-71||Win||100||6 h 25 m||Show|
15* WVU/Notre Dame ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Notre Dame -2.5
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have been absolutely rolling through conference play. I'll gladly back the red-hot Irish at home as a small favorite over rival West Virginia tonight.
The Irish already beat the Mountaineers 55-51 on the road earlier this season. That was a rare win for the road team. The home team has won eight of the last nine meetings in this series.
Notre Dame is 11-0 in their last 11 home meetings with West Virginia, having not lost to the Mountaineers in South Bend since 1987. They have won eight straight overall and are playing their best basketball of the season right now. Bet Notre Dame Wednesday.
|02-21-12||Michigan v. Northwestern -2||67-55||Loss||-102||7 h 22 m||Show|
15* Big Ten Tuesday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern -2
The Northwestern Wildcats are a bubble team right now in terms of the NCAA Tournament. I have them beating the Michigan Wolverines tonight to help their cause. The Wolverines are primed for a letdown Tuesday after their huge home win over Ohio State this past Saturday.
At 16-10, the Wildcats will be the more motivated team tonight as they look to bolster their resume. Northwestern certainly helped their cause with a 64-53 home victory over Minnesota on Saturday. The Wildcats are now 11-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 9.5 points/game.
While Michigan is 15-0 at home, the Wolverines are just 5-7 on the road. They are actually getting outscored away from home and there's no question this is a vulnerable team away from Ann Arbor. That 5-7 mark includes neutral court games as the Wolverines are only 2-6 in true road contests.
The home team has won four straight in this series. Northwestern has won their last two home meetings with Michigan by 14 and 15 points, respectively. The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Northwestern is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Roll with Northwestern Tuesday.
|02-21-12||Detroit Pistons v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 192.5||Top||100-101||Loss||-110||6 h 27 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Cavaliers UNDER 192.5
The Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers will play part in a defensive battle tonight. Both squads are playing solid basketball of late, which can mostly be attributed to improvement at the defensive end of the floor.
Detroit has allowed less than 100 points in nine of their last 10 games overall. Cleveland has allowed less than 100 in 10 of their last 13 contests. I don't see either squad eclipsing 100 tonight, which will make it very difficult for this game go to over the number.
These are two of the worst offensive teams in the league as well. Detroit is only scoring 88.0 points/game this season, including 85.0 points/game on the road. Cleveland isn't a whole lot better at 93.8 points/game on the year.
Cleveland is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER in home games after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 6-0 in Cavaliers last 6 games following a ATS loss. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cleveland's last 4 games overall. These three trends make for a 18-0 system backing the UNDER. Plus, the UNDER is 39-13 in the last 52 meetings, and 21-6 in the last 27 meetings in Cleveland. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|02-20-12||Portland Trailblazers v. Los Angeles Lakers -4||92-103||Win||100||11 h 20 m||Show|
15* Blazers/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4
The Los Angeles Lakers are showing solid value tonight as a mere 4-point home favorite over the Portland Trail Blazers. They have been simply money at home all season, and this is a very generous line tonight.
The only reason I can see the Lakers being such a small favorite here is because they are playing the second of a back-to-back. But you could argue that Portland is the more tired team as they will be playing their 5th game in 7 days, while the Lakers are only playing their 4th game in 8 days. Off a poor performance last night in Phoenix, there's no doubt the L.A. will come back motivated tonight.
Los Angeles is 13-2 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 9.8 points/game. They are only yielding 85.7 points on 39.9 percent shooting at home. That's bad news for the Blazers, who are just 5-10 on the road this season, scoring 91.3 points/game on 41.8 percent shooting.
This play falls into a system that is 35-12 (74.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - revenging a road loss vs opponent against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more. L.A. is 32-8 in their last 40 and 16-3 in their last 19 home meetings with Portland at Staples Center. Roll with the Lakers Monday.
|02-20-12||Baylor v. Texas -2||Top||77-72||Loss||-110||10 h 45 m||Show|
20* Baylor/Texas ESPN Big Monday BLOWOUT on Texas -2
The Texas Longhorns are a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament. A win over ranked Baylor would go a long way in helping them solidify their spot in the Big Dance. I fully expect the Longhorns to win in a blowout tonight behind a rowdy home crowd down in Austin.
I believe Baylor is one of the most overrated teams in the country this season. That has certainly shown of late and in Big 12 play as all five of their losses have come against conference opponents. The Bears have lost three of their last four, including a 16-point home loss to Kansas and a 15-point road loss to Missouri.
Texas has won four of their last five to put themselves in good position to make the tournament. This young team has only gotten better as the season has progressed. The Longhorns have been especially tough in Austin, going 14-2 at home while outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.2 points/game.
Both of Texas' home losses this season have come to Missouri and Kansas by a combined 4 points. Both Tigers and Jayhawks are 2-0 against Baylor this season. The Longhorns are 12-1 under head coach Rick Barnes in 13 home meetings with Baylor.
The Bears are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 vs. Big 12 opponents. Baylor is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Longhorns are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. After losing a heartbreaker at Baylor 76-71 in their first meeting on 1/28, I believe the Longhorns will have their revenge in a blowout tonight. Bet Texas Monday.
|02-20-12||Orlando Magic v. Milwaukee Bucks +2.5||93-90||Loss||-108||9 h 49 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +2.5
The Milwaukee Bucks will be the more motivated team tonight as they look to beat Orlando for the first time this season. I like their chances of getting revenge in a very tough spot for the Magic.
I just don't see Orlando bringing the motivation it's going to take to come away with a road victory tonight. The Magic have won the first two meetings with the Bucks this season, and they are coming off a deflating 78-90 loss at Miami yesterday. After playing the Heat, the Magic will have a hard time getting up for the Bucks.
Milwaukee easily could have won both games against Orlando this season. They held the lead going into the 4th quarter in both contests, and blew a 7-point lead in Orlando with less than six minutes remaining just four nights ago on February 17th. This will be their 3rd meeting in the last 10 days, so there's no question the Bucks are going to be the more motivated team.
The home team is 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home meetings with the Magic. Scott Skiles is 40-19 ATS in home games after having lost 4 of their last 5 games in all games he has coached. Take Milwaukee Monday.
|02-19-12||Orlando Magic v. Miami Heat -9||78-90||Win||100||5 h 18 m||Show|
15* Magic/Heat ABC ATS ANNIHILATOR on Miami -9
The Miami Heat are playing their best basketball of the season right now. I look for that to continue on National TV this afternoon as they get revenge on the Orlando Magic from an earlier loss this month. A motivated Heat team is certainly a dangerous one.
Miami lost 102-89 at Orlando on 2/8 for their worst loss of the season. There's no question this team has payback in mind, and I am banking on them getting it by double-digits at home this afternoon. Miami is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, winning all five contests by 15 points or more. Roll with Miami Sunday.
|02-19-12||Michigan State v. Purdue +5.5||Top||76-62||Loss||-110||3 h 47 m||Show|
20* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue +5.5
The Michigan State Spartans are getting way too much respect on the road today. They are a very good team and one of the best squads in the Big Ten, but there's no way they should be favored at Purdue.
The Boilermakers are 17-9 this season, including 11-3 at home where they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 14.5 points/game. Purdue wants revenge from an ugly loss at Michigan State earlier this season, which is likely the biggest reason why the Spartans are favored. But in the Big Ten, home-court advantage means everything.
Purdue is 7-0 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons. Michigan State is 0-6 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons. Purdue is 8-0 ATS after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals over the last 2 seasons. These three trends make for a perfect 21-0 system backing the Boilermakers. Bet Purdue Sunday.
|02-18-12||Wyoming v. Colorado St -2.5||46-54||Win||100||14 h 48 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado State -2.5
The Colorado State Rams are showing solid value as just a 2.5-point home favorite over the Wyoming Cowboys. The Rams will be looking to revenge an earlier loss to the Cowboys in their first meeting of the season, so motivation will certainly be on their side.
Colorado State is one of the best home teams in the entire country this year. The Rams are 11-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 8.8 points/game. CSU has won four of their last five meetings with Wyoming overall, so their road loss earlier this season was a rarity.
Colorado State is a perfect 8-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5. The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take Colorado State Saturday.
|02-18-12||Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 197||103-104||Loss||-110||13 h 52 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Grizzlies UNDER 197
The total in this game has been set way too high Saturday in a game that will result in a defensive battle. Both teams come in tired as they will be playing their second of a back-to-back. Memphis is playing their 4th game in 5 days and Golden State is playing their 3rd game in 4 days.
These teams already met once this season in what was certainly a defensive battle. Memphis won at Golden State 91-90 for 181 combined points. The Warriors only managed 90 points despite shooting 50.0 percent from the floor. The Grizzlies shot 42.4 percent. I look for a similar final score tonight.
Golden State is 17-5 to the UNDER in their last 22 when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days. The UNDER is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 overall. The UNDER is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These last three trends make for a 14-0 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|02-18-12||Oklahoma v. Iowa State -8.5||Top||69-80||Win||100||7 h 33 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -8.5
The Iowa State Cyclones are a legitimate NCAA Tournament team. They really need this win Saturday to assure that they stay on track to make the Big Dance for the first time since 2005. I believe they win in a double-digit blowout against overmatched Oklahoma here.
Without question, Iowa State is the most underrated team in the Big 12. The Cyclones are 18-8 in all games this season, including 8-5 SU & 9-3 ATS in conference play. ISU is 13-2 at home this year, outscoring opponents by 9.2 points/game.
Oklahoma enters this contest on a five-game losing streak. That includes a 77-70 home loss to Iowa State, and blowout road losses at Kansas (62-84) and at Texas Tech (47-65). That was the Red Raiders' only Big 12 win of the season just to show how bad that loss was.
Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after 3 or more consecutive losses. The Cyclones are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games. These two trends make for a 12-0 system backing the Cyclones. Plus, the Sooners are 25-52-3 ATS in their last 80 road games. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|02-17-12||Golden State Warriors +10.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder||87-110||Loss||-110||20 h 43 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Golden State Warriors +10.5
The Golden State Warriors should not be catching double-digit points tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Golden State will be the more motivated team tonight, which means they will be giving the better effort which should result in a cover against this inflated spread.
Golden State has lost their first two meetings with Oklahoma City by 11 and 3 points, respectively. They'll want revenge tonight, while the Thunder could certainly be disinterested after opening 2-0 in this season series. The Warriors have been really tough in this series on the road, not losing any of their last three road meetings by more than 8 points.
The Warriors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Golden State is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Oklahoma City. Add up these three trends and we have a 20-2 (91%) System backing the Warriors. Take Golden State Friday.
|02-17-12||Dallas Mavericks v. Philadelphia 76ers -2.5||Top||82-75||Loss||-110||20 h 44 m||Show|
25* Mavs/76ers NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia -2.5
The Philadelphia 76ers are showing their best value of the season tonight as just a small 2.5-point home favorite over the Dallas Mavericks. The 76ers will be amped up to take on the defending champs while also looking to bounce back from a loss at Orlando last time out.
Dallas is way overvalued with this line due to their five-game winning streak and their blowout home victory over the Denver Nuggets last time out. That was a Denver team playing without several of their key players. Their streak ends tonight.
Philly is 20-10 SU & 19-11 ATS on the season. That includes a 13-5 SU & 12-6 ATS mark at home where they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 10.8 points/game. The 76ers only give up 83.6 points on 41.1 percent shooting at home this year. The home team has won six of the last eight meetings in this series.
The 76ers have been incredible when trying to bounce back from a loss, going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. Philly is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. The 76ers are 8-1 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=43% this season. Philly has suffered back-to-back losses just once all season. Bet the 76ers Friday.
|02-17-12||Milwaukee Bucks +7.5 v. Orlando Magic||85-94||Loss||-105||19 h 43 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Bucks +7.5
The Orlando Magic are way overvalued right now due to winning seven of their last nine while entering this game on a three-game winning streak. The Milwaukee Bucks are undervalued thanks to a three-game losing streak heading in. I'll side with the value and back the live underdog tonight.
Milwaukee obviously wants to put an end to this losing streak in a hurry. They'll be the more motivated team in this one, while Orlando comes in relaxed and not as hungry. The Bucks have been tough on the road this season, only getting outscored by 4.0 points/game. Orlando is only outscoring opponents by 4.2 points/game at home.
The Bucks just played the Magic on 2/11 less than a week ago, falling 99-94. Each of the last three meetings in this series were decided by 6 points or less. Milwaukee will be out for revenge tonight as well, only adding more incentive for them to cover this large spread.
The Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. The Magic are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Orlando is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Milwaukee is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 after 3 or more consecutive losses. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Roll with Milwaukee Friday.
|02-16-12||Los Angeles Clippers -2 v. Portland Trail Blazers||74-71||Win||100||10 h 31 m||Show|
15* Clippers/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2
This is simply too low of a line to pass up on the Clippers tonight. Los Angeles is clearly the better team when you factor in who is playing in this game, and you have to believe they are out for some revenge after losing to Portland on the road earlier this season.
The Trail Blazers were able to go on the road and beat Golden State 93-91 last night without All-Star forward LaMarcus Aldridge. I can't see them having the same kind of success without Aldridge against the Clippers tonight. Los Angeles has a couple of pretty good players down low in Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, who should dominate this game on both sides of the floor. Without Aldridge (22.6 ppg) in the lineup, Portland's leading scorer is reserve Jamal Crawford at 14.3 ppg. They simply don't have enough offense to keep this game close.
The Clippers are 8-1 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. Los Angeles is also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Portland is 0-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Bet the Clippers Thursday.
|02-16-12||Iowa v. Penn State -2.5||Top||64-69||Win||100||13 h 9 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Penn State -2.5
The Penn State Nittany Lions will make easy work of the Iowa Hawkeyes Thursday and cover this tiny spread with ease. Oddsmakers have missed their mark very badly in this Big Ten match-up. Home-court advantage is as big in this conference at it is in any other conference in the country.
That's especially the case in this series as the home team has been absolutely dominant. The home team is a perfect 10-0 in the last 10 meetings in this series dating back to 2006. When Penn State makes it 11 in a row tonight, they'll likely win by 3-plus points to cover this generous spread, too.
Iowa has played 25 games this season, and they only have two road wins to their credit. The Hawkeyes are getting outscored by 13.1 points/game away from home. Penn State is a respectable 9-5 at home this year, outscoring opponents by 6.6 points/game.
The Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Penn State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Nittany Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bet Penn State Thursday.
|02-15-12||Denver Nuggets v. Dallas Mavericks OVER 198||84-102||Loss||-103||8 h 8 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Mavs OVER 198
I fully expect the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks to take part in a shootout tonight. Points are usually easy to come by when these two teams get together, and I see them combining for 200-plus tonight with ease.
Denver is scoring 104.1 points/game and allowing 99.9 points/game this season for an average combined score of 204.0 points/game. Those numbers balloon to 107.1 for, 102.3 against and 209.4 combined in Denver road games.
Dallas is starting to light up the nets of late. The Mavericks are averaging 100.5 points/game in their last four. They should be able to take advantage of a Denver team that will be missing two key interior defenders in Nene Hilario and Timofey Mozgov. Look for the Mavs to get easy buckets around the rim all game.
Denver and Dallas have combined for 200 or more points in 14 of their last 15 meetings. That makes for a 14-1 (93%) system backing the OVER pertaining to tonight's total set. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|02-15-12||Charlotte Bobcats +10.5 v. Minnesota Timberwolves||90-102||Loss||-104||8 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +10.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves should not be laying double-digits against any team in this league. I know the Charlotte Bobcats have the worst record, but there's no question that this line has been inflated. I'll take advantage tonight.
The biggest reason for Charlotte's early struggles has been injuries. But the Bobcats are finally starting to get healthy, and they could be a very solid value play not only tonight, but over the next few weeks. They just got back their best player in Corey Maggette, who scored 22 points last time out. Also, starting PG D.J. Augustin is expected to make his return tonight.
Minnesota comes into this game on a 4-game losing streak. The Timberwolves have been overmatched during this skid, and they have no business getting this much respect tonight. This is a flashy team with the addition of Ricky Rubio, which makes them a public team. While the Timberwolves are improved this year, they remain one of the worst teams in the Western Conference.
Charlotte has been a thorn in Minnesota's side for years. The Bobcats have won eight of their last nine meetings with the Timberwolves. That includes four road victories during this stretch, which dates back to 2007.
The Timberwolves are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. These four trends make for a 21-1 (95%) system backing the Bobcats. Take Charlotte Wednesday.
|02-15-12||New Orleans Hornets +9.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks||Top||92-89||Win||100||8 h 38 m||Show|
25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Hornets +9.5
The New Orleans Hornets are showing their best value of the season tonight as nearly a double-digit underdog to the Milwaukee Bucks. Milwaukee has no business being this heavily favored tonight in a game I believe the Hornets can win outright.
New Orleans finally put an end to their losing streak with an impressive 86-80 victory over the Utah Jazz two nights ago. Chris Kaman led the way with 27 points and 13 rebounds, while Greivis Vasquez dished out 10 assists filling in for the injured Jarrett Jack.
Milwaukee is just 12-16 on the season, yet they are getting treated like one of the elite teams in the NBA with this line tonight. The Bucks haven't won a game by double-digits since last month, and they could easily suffer a hangover from their blowout 96-114 home loss to the Miami Heat last time out.
The Bucks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite. Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. New Orleans has won 10 of their last 11 meetings with Milwaukee, making for a 91% system backing them tonight. Bet the Hornets Wednesday.
|02-15-12||Philadelphia 76ers v. Orlando Magic -3||87-103||Win||100||7 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -3
The Orlando Magic continue to be undervalued due to the trade talks surrounding Dwight Howard. The Philadelphia 76ers are overvalued due to their fast start. The clear value in this game is with the small home favorite.
Orlando is 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last 8 games overall, beating up on some good teams while also taking advantage of soft lines. They have a win over Miami and solid road victories over the Pacers and Bucks during this stretch. Their only losses came by 5 points to the Clippers and by 2 points in overtime to the Hawks.
The 76ers are an impressive 20-9 on the season, but they have been doing most of their damage at home. Philly has played 18 home games compared to 11 road games this season, which is the biggest reason for their early success. The value is gone from this team for now, though it could come back later in the season.
This play falls into a system that is 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). After losing at Philly 69-74 in their first meeting this season, I like the Magic to have their revenge tonight. Roll with Orlando Wednesday.
|02-15-12||Villanova v. South Florida -2||Top||51-65||Win||100||7 h 32 m||Show|
20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on South Florida -2
The South Florida Bulls should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Villanova Wildcats. Villanova continues to get too much respect from oddsmakers from what they've done in year's past, instead of what they are doing this year.
Villanova is 11-13 SU & 5-15 ATS this season. That includes a 2-10 SU & 3-8 ATS road mark. The Wildcats are giving up a whopping 75.7 points/game on the road. This team has been overvalued all season, and they remain overvalued tonight.
South Florida doesn't get the respect they deserve because they have not been a contender in the Big East over the last several years. But they are a contender this season. The Bulls are 15-10 in all games, including an impressive 8-4 in Big East play.
USF does not lose at home, going 12-1 while giving up just 57.1 points and outscoring opponents by 11.4 points/game this season. They already beat Villanova 74-57 on the road in their first meeting, so they should have no problem winning by 3-plus points at home this time around.
Villanova is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better this season. The Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. These three trends make for an 18-0 ATS system backing the Bulls. Take South Florida Wednesday.
|02-14-12||Atlanta Hawks v. Los Angeles Lakers -5.5||78-86||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
15* Hawks/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5
The Los Angeles Lakers have been virtually unstoppable at the Staples Center all season. They are 11-2 at home this year, outscoring opponents by 9.9 points/game. Their 85.2 points/game allowed at home is by far the best in the Western Conference.
Atlanta's nine losses to clubs with winning records this season have come by an average of 13.1 points, and it's fallen behind by at least 20 in its last five defeats overall. The Hawks have lost five straight road games to the Lakers by an average of 17.0 points, allowing 109.2 points per game while shooting 25.0 percent from long distance.
The Lakers' role players have been excellent at home, but terrible on the road. Steve Blake and Matt Barnes are averaging a combined 18.0 points and shooting 47.2 percent at Staples compared to 10.5 points and 34.9 percent on the road. This team simply plays with a lot more confidence as a whole at home, and this is a very generous line tonight.
The Hawks are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 vs. Western Conference. Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Pacific opponents. The Lakers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Los Angeles. Roll with the Lakers Tuesday.
|02-14-12||Utah Jazz v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 200||Top||85-111||Win||100||8 h 36 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz/Thunder UNDER 200
The Utah Jazz are extremely tired right now as this will be their 3rd road game in three days. I look for the Jazz to struggle offensively on tired legs, but for their defensive effort to be there. Utah will be coming up short on a lot of outside shots tonight.
The Thunder are a solid defensive team with Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins inside. They only give up 93.7 points/game at home this season. Ibaka and Perkins really contained Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson in their last game, a 101-87 road victory at Utah on 2/10. I expect a similar final in this one with well below 200 combined points.
Utah has been an UNDERS machine of late. The Jazz are 5-1 to the UNDER in their last six games overall. They have combined with their opponents to score 188 or less points in five of those six contests. OKC has combined their their opponents to score 196 or less points in four straight home games.
Utah is 44-22 to the UNDER in their last 66 when revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more. The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 7-2 in Jazz last 9 games playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 16-7 in Jazz last 23 games as an underdog. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|02-14-12||Texas A&M v. Texas Tech +4.5||47-38||Loss||-105||7 h 30 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +4.5
The Texas Tech Red Raiders should not be an underdog at home to the Texas A&M Aggies tonight. This is a game I fully expect the Red Raiders to win outright. Texas Tech picked up a huge 65-47 victory over Oklahoma Saturday as a 6.5-point underdog, giving them a lot of confidence heading into this one.
The Aggies have simply been a disappointment this season. A big reason has been due to injuries as they just haven't been healthy at any point this year. This team appeared to have packed it in against Iowa State in a 46-69 road loss Saturday, which was their fourth straight defeat.
With how poorly Texas A&M has played on the road this season, there's no way they should be favored in this one. The Aggies are 1-8 in road games, losing by an average of 12.3 points/game. Texas Tech is a respectable 7-5 at home this year. The Aggies are 0-6 in Big 12 road games, losing all six by 9 points or more.
The Aggies are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Texas A&M is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 0.5-6.5. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Texas Tech Tuesday.
|02-13-12||Phoenix Suns v. Golden State Warriors -3||96-102||Win||100||11 h 34 m||Show|
15* Suns/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -3
The Golden State Warriors should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Phoenix Suns. Golden State continues to go under the radar. I believe this is one of the most underrated teams in the league, and it's simply taken some time to gel under new head coach Mark Jackson.
The Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are riding a two-game winning streak with impressive wins over the Denver Nuggets (109-101) on the road and the Houston Rockets (106-97) at home. Under the defensive-minded Jackson, the Warriors are playing much better defense, giving up 100.7 points/game overall and less than 100 points/game at home.
Phoenix is one of the most overrated teams in the league this season. That's indicated by the fact that the Suns are 12-15 SU & 12-15 ATS. Phoenix is only scoring 92.2 points/game away from home this season. They simply haven't surrounded Steve Nash with the kind of talent it takes to make this team a playoff contender.
The Warriors are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Phoenix is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference. The home team is 15-7-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings. The Suns are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 meetings in Golden State. Take the Warriors Monday.
|02-13-12||Philadelphia 76ers v. Charlotte Bobcats OVER 176.5||98-89||Win||100||7 h 4 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Bobcats OVER 176.5
The total has been set far too low in this game between the Philadelphia 76ers and Charlotte Bobcats. I fully expect these teams to combine for 180-plus points tonight to get this OVER with relative ease.
Looking at season averages alone, it's easy to see that there is some value with this OVER tonight. Philly combines with their opponents to average 182.5 points/game, including 190.7 points/game on the road. Charlotte combines with their opponents to average 187.2 points/game overall.
Charlotte is one of the worst defensive teams in the league. They give up 100.9 points/game on 47.1 percent shooting. I look for the 76ers to exceed the 100-point mark, paving the way for an easy OVER in this one.
The Bobcats have combined with their opponents for 178 or more points in six of their last seven games overall, and Philly has combined with their foes for 178 or more points in six of their last seven as well. These are two 86% OVER systems pertaining to tonight's total set. Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.
|02-13-12||Iowa State +9 v. Baylor||Top||64-79||Loss||-108||7 h 58 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +9
The Iowa State Cyclones remain one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Baylor Bears, on the other hand, have been overrated all year thanks to a soft early schedule. This line reflects both of my opinions as the Cyclones simply should not be catching this many points.
Iowa State is 18-7 on the season and deserving of being ranked. The Cyclones are 8-4 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in conference play. Their record against the spread in Big 12 games just shows how underrated this team really is. Head coach Fred Hoiberg brought in a ton of talented transfers, and they have really started to gel in conference action.
Baylor's true colors have shown here recently. They lost at home to Kansas 54-68 on 2/8 and followed that poor performance up with a 57-72 road loss at Missouri on 2/11. Iowa State only lost to Kansas by 9 on the road, and they beat the Jayhawks are home 72-64. ISU has not lost a Big 12 games by more than 9 points this season.
Baylor is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games with a total set of 140 to 149.5 points. The Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after 2 or more consecutive unders. Iowa State is 8-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season. The Cyclones are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, while the Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. These five trends make for a 34-0 system backing ISU. Bet Iowa State Monday.
|02-12-12||Utah Jazz v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 188||98-88||Win||100||11 h 19 m||Show|
15* Jazz/Grizzlies ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 188
The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the best defensive teams in the league. They give up just 91.7 points/game this season, including 91.6 points/game at home on 41.7 percent shooting. they like to play at a slow pace, so playing at home tonight the Grizzlies will control the tempo in this one.
Memphis is scoring 88.2 points/game and allowing 92.0 points/game in their last five contests for an average combined score of 180.2 points/game. I fully expect this game to see 180 or less combined points as the Grizzlies and Jazz take part in a defensive battle on National TV. These teams met earlier this season on 1/06 and combined for 179 points.
The UNDER is 8-1 in Grizzlies last 9 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 home games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 15-7 in Jazz last 22 games as an underdog. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. The UNDER is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Memphis. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|02-12-12||Miami Heat -4 v. Atlanta Hawks||107-87||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
15* Heat/Hawks ESPN ATS ANNIHILATOR on Miami -4
The Miami Heat are showing solid value Sunday as a mere 4-point favorite over the Atlanta Hawks. Rarely will you get the Heat at this kind of price. In my opinion, they are the second-best team in the Eastern Conference behind the Bulls, so you should definitely pull the trigger any time you get them as a small favorite.
This play falls into a system that is 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road favorites (MIAMI) - off a road win against a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days.
Atlanta is 11-26 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Heat are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings, including 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Atlanta. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Roll with the Heat Sunday.
|02-12-12||Chicago Bulls -3 v. Boston Celtics||Top||91-95||Loss||-105||5 h 15 m||Show|
20* Bulls/Celtics ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Chicago -3
The Chicago Bulls are the real deal. Any time you can get the Bulls at this kind of price, you better take advantage. That's precisely what I'm doing Sunday as the Bulls go into Boston and come away with a blowout victory.
In my opinion, the Bulls are the best team in the league. They are 23-6 this season despite playing several games without Derrick Rose due to injury. While I expect Rose to play today, I still envision the Bulls covering either way.
This play falls into a system that is 49-17 (74.2%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against road favorites (CHICAGO) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record.
The Bulls are 7-0 ATS after playing 3 consecutive games as a road favorite this season. Chicago is 8-0 ATS in road games after playing 4 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. These three trends make for a perfect 19-0 system backing Chicago. Bet the Bulls Sunday.