15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -12

The Memphis Grizzlies are an absolute mash unit right now.  It happened last year as injuries killed their season, and it's starting to happen again this season.  The Grizzlies were already without starters James Ennis and Chandler Parson, as well as the NBA's best sixth man in Zach Randolph.

But now they'll be without Mike Conley for at least a month due to a back fracture suffered last time out.  The Grizzlies lost that game 85-104 at home to the Hornets without all of those players.  They have to feel snake bitten right now with these injuries, and I don't expect much of an effort from them here tonight.

And now the Grizzlies must face one of the best teams in the NBA in the Toronto Raptors.  The Raptors have gone 11-6 SU & 11-5-1 ATS this season.  They continue to be an undervalued commodity and are a legitimate threat to Cleveland in the East.  And they rarely take teams lightly, as evidenced by their 122-95 throttling of the 76ers on Monday.

The Grizzlies are a tired team right now as they'll be playing their 8th game in 13 days, which just compounds the problem with the injuries.  Memphis is 68-99 ATS in its last 167 games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days.  The Grizzlies are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The Raptors are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS win.  Toronto is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Take the Raptors Wednesday.

15* Rockets/Jazz NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Utah +2.5

I've made this point a few times this season and I'll keep harping on it.  Utah is a much better team with George Hill in the lineup.  The Jazz are 7-3 in games with Hill, and 3-5 in games without him.  It's easy to see why as Hill leads the team in both scoring (21.2 ppg) and assists (4.2 apg).

The Jazz are starting to play up to their potential now that they are nearly full strength health-wise.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating the Nuggets by 25 and Hawks by 27 at home, and then the Timberwolves by 9 on the road.

I'm not that concerned that this will be a back-to-back for the Jazz because they had two days off prior to the Timberwolves game last night.  Plus, they will be out for revenge from a 102-111 road loss at Houston just 10 days ago on November 19th.  That will give them the extra motivation they need to push through.  George Hill missed that loss to Houston, too, and he'll make all the difference in the rematch.

Houston is an overvalued commodity right now and it's time to fade them.  The Rockets have gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall as the public bettors continue to pour in on them.  They are now favored on the road against what I feel is one of the best teams in the Western Conference in the Jazz.  The price is right to take the Jazz as home dogs here.

Utah is 63-34 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last three seasons.  Mike D'Antoni is 22-40 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more in all games he has coached.  The Jazz are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games playing on 0 days' rest.  The home team is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Jazz Tuesday.

20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia Commonwealth -5

The VCU Rams are coming off a 25-11 season last year in the first season under Will Wade, showing that they don't miss Shaka Smart at all.  They went 14-4 in AAC play and lost an 81-85 nail-biter to Oklahoma with a Sweet 16 berth on the line.

The Rams returned four starters from that team, including JeQuan Lewis (11.3 ppg, 5.1 apg) and Mo Allie-Cox (10.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg).  Fellow starters Doug Brooks and Jordan Burgess returned, as did key bench player Justin Tillman (7.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg), who shot 71.7 percent over his final 21 games last year and had 21 rebounds against Dayton in the A-10 Tournament.

VCU is off to a 5-1 start this season with wins over St. John's and LSU on neutral courts.  The only loss came to Baylor 63-71, and Baylor is now currently the No. 9 ranked team in the country.  Baylor has beaten Louisville, Michigan State and Oregon already, so that's not a bad loss at all.

Princeton is off to a 2-2 start this season with its only wins coming against Lafayette and Rowan.  Princeton lost 73-82 at BYU and 67-76 at Lehigh.  This Tigers team is getting a lot of hype this season because they are expected to compete for an Ivy League title while bringing back all five starters from last year.  But this is the toughest game that they will have played yet, and they already lost to both BYU and Lehigh by 9 on the road.

The Rams are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games overall.  VCU is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games following a win.  The Rams are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Tigers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Princeton is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a win.  Bet VCU Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Northwestern -3.5

The Northwestern Wildcats went 20-12 last season and brought back three starters from that team.  They are PG Bryant McIntosh (13.8 ppg, 6.7 apg last year), Aaron Falzon (8.4 ppg, 63 3-pointers) and Sanjay Lumpkin (3.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  They have the potential to make their first ever NCAA Tournament appearance this year.

The Wildcats are off to a 4-2 start against a brutal schedule.  Their two losses both came on the road at Butler (68-70) as 7.5-point dogs and against Notre Dame (66-70) as 4.5-point dogs, losing those two contests by a combined six points and proving that they can play with good teams.  They also did that in a 77-58 blowout of Texas as 3-point dogs.  Those three results right there tell you a lot about what the Wildcats are capable of.

I think Wake Forest is overvalued due to its 5-1 start.  This is a team that went 11-20 last year and lost two of its best players in Devin Thomas and Codi Miller-McIntyre.  The five wins have come against Radford, Bucknell, UTEP, College of Charleston and Coastal Carolina.  The loss was against Villanova 77-96 as 12-point dogs as they were clearly outclassed.

Wake Forest is 0-6 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half of last game over the past two seasons.  Northwestern is 11-2 ATS when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last three years.  The Demon Deacons are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win.  The Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  Take Northwestern Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Celtics -3.5

The Boston Celtics have started to play up to their potential now that they are fully healthy after playing several games without both Al Horford and Jae Crowder.  They have won three off their last four with all three wins coming on the road, and their only loss coming at home to the San Antonio Spurs, who are 10-0 on the road this season.

The same cannot be said for the Miami Heat, who have a laundry list of injuries and cannot afford to be short-handed with their lack of talent already.  The Heat are just 5-11 on the season.  They are without Justise Winslow, Chris Bosh and Wayne Ellington.  They could be without Goran Dragic and Willie Reed again tonight.  And Dion Waiters is nursing a groin injury.

The Celtics come in well-rested as they will have had two days off since the loss to the Spurs on Friday.  The Heat will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  The Celtics have have the Heat's number, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with three straight wins by double-digits.

The Celtics are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 Monday games.  Boston is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Eastern Conference opponents and 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  Boston is 35-17 ATS in the last 52 meetings, including 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Miami.  Bet the Celtics Monday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on UCLA -3.5

The UCLA Bruins are absolutely loaded this season.  They are off to a 6-0 start while averaging 100.7 points per game and outscoring opponents by 24.0 points per game.  They brought back four starters from last season and added in two of the top freshman recruits in the country.

Freshman TJ Leaf (17.8 ppg, 8.8 rpg) is an absolute load inside.  He's a McDonald's All-American who scored 3,022 points in his prep career.  Bryce Alford (17.7 ppg) and Isaac Hamilton (16.7 ppg, 4.2 apg) are the two top players back from last year.  Freshman Lonzo Ball (16.0 ppg, 9.0 apg, 5.3 rpg) is going to be one-and-done.  Aaron Holiday (13.0 ppg, 4.2 apg) and Thomas Welsh (11.3 ppg, 9.7 rpg) are also returning starters.

While UCLA has won all six of its games by double-digits, Texas A&M has already lost at home to USC this season and was very fortunate to beat Virginia Tech 68-65 on Saturday after erasing a 17-point deficit.  The Aggies lost four starters from last year in Danuel House (15.6 ppg), Jalen Jones (15.3 ppg), Alex Caruso (8.1 ppg, 5.0 apg) and Anthony Collins.

They have some young talent as well in Tyler Davis and DJ Hogg, but they're definitely down compared to last year.  Texas A&M is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Pac-12 opponents.  The Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win.  They'll be out-classed here by the loaded Bruins who are playing in their home state with tremendous fan support for this neutral site affair.  Bet UCLA Sunday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +13

The Cleveland Cavaliers are way overvalued today as 13-point road favorites over the Philadelphia 76ers.  I'll gladly take the home team and the points for a couple of different reasons.

It's worth mentioning that Lebron James and several Cleveland players attended the Michigan/Ohio State game yesterday and were down on the sidelines.  Their focus clearly isn't on beating the 76ers today in this 1:00 EST start time.

The 76ers always get up for the Cavs, while the same cannot be said for Cleveland.  In fact, the 76ers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with Cleveland.  Only once have they lost by more than 13 points during this stretch, and six of those games were decided by 10 points or less.  That includes a 101-102 Cleveland home victory in their only meeting this season as 12.5-point favorites on November 5th.

The Cavaliers are 4-13-2 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The 76ers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home.  Take the 76ers Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Hornets UNDER 206

This is the rare home-and-home game in the NBA.  The Knicks and Hornets played an overtime thriller in New York last night.  The Knicks prevailed 113-111 in overtime.  That game saw 208 combined points at the end of regulation.

Now oddsmakers have set the total at 206 in the rematch.  I believe it's too high.  Familiarity favors defense, and points will be very hard to come by for both teams tonight.  I don't expect either team to get to the 100-point mark in this one.  They'll both be fatigued off an OT game, and that hurts teams offensively more than defensively.

These teams have combined for 208 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last nine meetings.  They have averaged 191.6 combined points per game at the end of regulation in those nine meetings, which is more than 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 206.  There's clearly some value here with the UNDER.

New York is 21-5 UNDER vs. teams who score 103-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 20-6 in Knicks last 26 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 36-17 in Knicks last 53 overall.  Charlotte is 89-53 to the UNDER in its last 142 after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa Hawkeyes -3

The Iowa Hawkeyes are way undervalued right now after their 41-74 loss to Virginia yesterday.  Virginia is one of the best teams in the country and the Hawkeyes weren't ready for their pack-line defense as they shot just 31.2%.  But now they're up against a team they can handle in Memphis.

Memphis is overvalued after starting the season 4-0 with wins over UTRGV, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Savannah State and McNeese State.  But it was beaten 51-60 yesterday against a Providence team that is way down this season after losing its two best players in Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil.

And UTRGV and Savannah State are two common opponents who both Memphis and Iowa played at home.  Iowa beat Savannah State 116-84 and UTRGV 95-67, outscoring them by an average of 30 points per game.  Memphis beat UTRGV 94-75 and Savannah State 99-86, only outscoring them by 16 points per game on average.  It's clear that the Hawkeyes are the better team here.  Roll with Iowa Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Northern Iowa +9.5

This is a rare occasion in college basketball where two teams will be playing back-to-back.  Xavier and Northern Iowa squared off just six days ago in the Tire Pros Invitational in Orlando.  The Musketeers won 67-59 after outscoring the Panthers by eight points in the second half and pulling away late.

The Musketeers were only 5.5-point favorites in that game and barely covered, and now they're 9.5-point favorites in the rematch because they are at home.  But this won't be the normal home-court advantage that Xavier usually has as kids are home for Thanksgiving Break.  Plus, I love taking the team that lost the first game in the rematch in situations like this one because they want it more.

Northern Iowa is one of the country's top mid-major programs annually and isn't used to losing.  The Panthers have a 4-2 record since the start of the 2014-15 season against Top 25 teams, and they were 3-0 last season against ranked opponents.  To get to the championship game last week, Northern Iowa throttled Arizona State 82-63 as 3.5-point dogs before upsetting Oklahoma 73-67 as 6-point dogs.

"We've been playing big schools for a long time now and we've beaten them," senior guard Jeremy Morgan told reporters this week. "It's not easy, but we know we can do it."

"It's a good opportunity for us to be able to go out and play a good team like that twice in a row just to prove we can play with anybody," UNI junior forward Klint Carlson said.

Xavier is 5-0 this season, but four of those wins came by 8 points or fewer.  It barely beat Lehigh 84-81 in its home opener, needed overtime to beat a terrible Missouri team 83-82 as 14.5-point favorites, and topped Clemson 83-77.  This team is clearly overrated right now based on those results, and they know they'll be in a dog fight today.

"I think they're going to bring their 'A' game when they come back," Trevon Bluiett said. "They've kind of got some motivation now, so, you know, I think we'll be ready for it as well. I think it'll be pretty exciting."

The Panthers are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Northern Iowa is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Panthers are 37-18-4 ATS in their last 59 games overall.  They have been an undervalued commodity for three straight seasons.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* Nebraska/UCLA ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA -9

The UCLA Bruins are absolutely loaded this season.  They are off to a 5-0 start while averaging 104.4 points per game and outscoring opponents by 26.6 points per game.  They brought back four starters from last season and added in two of the top freshman recruits in the country.

Freshman TJ Leaf (19.0 ppg, 9.8 rpg) is an absolute load inside.  He's a McDonald's All-American who scored 3,022 points in his prep career.  Bryce Alford (17.6 ppg) and Isaac Hamilton (17.0 ppg, 5.0 apg) are the two top players back from last year.  Freshman Lonzo Ball (16.6 ppg, 9.4 apg, 5.8 rpg) is going to be one-and-done.  Aaron Holiday (14.4 ppg, 3.8 apg) and Thomas Welsh (11.2 ppg, 9.4 rpg) are also returning starters.

Nebraska went 16-18 last season and lost its two best players from that squad in Shavon Shields (16.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and Andrew White III (16.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg).  The program suffered a major blow in the offseason when White unexpectedly left the program and transferred to Syracuse. 

UCLA beat up on Portland 99-77 last night, which allowed its starters to play fewer minutes down the stretch.  Nebraska didn't have the same luxury as it beat an undermanned Dayton team that was missing two key players 80-78.  Three players played at least 30 minutes in that contest for the Huskers.

Nebraska is 10-28 ATS in its last 38 road games after scoring 80 points or more.  The Cornhuskers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Nebraska is 16-30 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.

Plays against neutral court teams as an underdog (NEBRASKA) - after a combined score of 155 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 155 points or more three straight games are 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with UCLA Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Weber State -3.5

Weber State is the favorite to win the Big Sky Conference this season.  Head coach Randy Rahe is 208-113 in his 10 seasons here, and just signed a new eight-year contract.  He returns four starters and a deep cast of reserves from a team that went 26-9 last season.

I think the Wildcats are being undervalued here because they are off to a 2-2 start this season, losing true road games at Pepperdine and Stanford already.  They have six players averaging at least 8.5 points per game, including Jeremy Senglin (21.5 ppg), who is likely to win Big Sky MVP this season.

Iona did go 22-11 last season and made the NCAA Tournament before losing to Iowa State.  But the Gaels lost three starters from last season, including their do-everything guard A.J. English (22.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg) and Isaiah Williams (12.8 ppg, 6.9 rpg).

I haven't been impressed with Iona at all this season.  They lost by 21 as 14.5-point dogs at Florida State, which is one of the bottom tier teams in the ACC.  And they lost by 15 at Nevada as 12.5-point dogs.  Their only win came against a terrible Drake team by a final of 64-53.  Drake went 7-24 last season and is 1-3 this season with losses to Missouri-KC and South Dakota.

Iona is 4-13 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Gaels are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.  The Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  Weber State crushed Cal Davis 86-58 to deliver the goods for us last night and will have plenty left in the tank for Iona tonight.  Bet Weber State Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz -2.5

The Utah Jazz are way undervalued right now.  They are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall, so the price on them is cheap right now.  But a big reason for their struggles was injuries, most notably to starting point guard George Hill.

But Hill returned to the lineup last time out and the Jazz got back on track by crushing the Denver Nuggets 108-83 at home.  Hill leads the team in scoring at 20.6 points per game while shooting 55% from the field.  He has missed eight games this season already, and they are 5-3 without him compared to 3-5 without him.

This will only be the 2nd game in 5 days for the Jaz, so they'll be fresh and ready to go.  The Hawks will be playing their 7th game in 11 days and have shown signs of wearing down.  Atlanta is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall, but it is still getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.

Utah is 59-34 ATS in its last 93 home games after failing to cover four of its last five against the spread.  The Hawks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games.  Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last five games when playing on one days' rest.  The Jazz are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Jazz Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on SMU +1.5

The SMU Mustangs went 25-5 last season and were clearly one of the better teams in the country.  Tim Jankovich, hired four years ago as an assistant as essentially the coach-in-waiting, is more than capable of replacing Larry Brown. He won 104 games in five seasons at Illinois State before arriving at SMU, and even went 9-0 last season while Brown sat out with a suspension.

Jankovich is working with a great team this season as the Mustangs return three starters in Ben Moore (11.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg last year), Shake Milton (10.5 ppg, 2.7 apg) and Sterling Brown (10.1 ppg, 53.6% 3-pointers).  These three have helped the Mustangs out to an impressive 4-1 start this season with a 72-44 win over Gardner Webb, a 91-64 win over Eastern Michigan as 12.5-point favorites, a 76-67 win over Pitt as 5-point favorites and an 84-57 win over UC-Santa Barbara as 19-point favorites.

Milton (12.0 ppg, 4.0 apg this year), Brown (11.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 3.0 apg) and Moore (10.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg) have all gotten off to nice starts this season.  But it's been Semi Ojeleye (20.2 ppg, 7.8 rpg) who has stolen the show.  He's a Duke transfer who is already contributing in a big way after sitting out last season.  Jarrey Foster (10.2 ppg) has taken his game to the next level after playing a significant role off the bench last year.

I know SMU didn't fare well in a loss to Michigan, but that was a tough spot as the Wolverines run a bunch of different defenses that are tough to prepare for.  And they had no time to prepare as they were playing a second straight day after beating Pitt the night before.  I like the fact that this team is battle-tested with this tough early schedule.

USC lost its 2nd and 3rd leading scorers from last season in Nikola Jovanovic and Julian Jacobs.  The Trojans had four other players transfer.  They are counting on up to four freshmen to contribute significantly this season.  They are off to a 4-0 start this year which has them overvalued, but they have played such a soft schedule.

This will be the Trojans' toughest test of the season.  And they certainly aren't hitting on all cylinders offensively in the early going as they are shooting just 40.8% as a team overall and 30.5% from 3-point range.  SMU is shooting 47.5% as a team and 38.9% from 3-point range against a much tougher schedule.

The Mustangs are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  SMU is 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games.  USC is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win.  The Trojans are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  Take SMU Friday.

15* UC Davis/Weber State Midnight EST BAILOUT on Weber State -4

Weber State is the favorite to win the Big Sky Conference this season.  Head coach Randy Rahe is 208-113 in his 10 seasons here, and just signed a new eight-year contract.  He returns four starters and a deep cast of reserves from a team that went 26-9 last season.

I think the Wildcats are being undervalued here because they are off to a 1-2 start this season, losing road games at Pepperdine and Stanford already.  They have four players averaging double-digits scoring, including Jeremy Senglin (22.0 ppg), who is likely to win Big Sky MVP this season.

Conversely, UC Davis is being overvalued due to its 4-1 start this season.  The one loss was a 14-point setback to Tennessee State, while the four wins have come against the likes of Santa Clara, Northern Arizona, Holy Names and Sacramento State.

UC Davis is being picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Big West Conference.  This is a team that went just 11-19 last season and loses three key starters in Josh Fox (14.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg last year), Neal Monson (9.0 ppg, 8.5 rpg) and Brynton Lemar (10.2 ppg, 3.6 rpg).  They have their two guards back, but they are really hurting on the interior.

Weber State has had a full week to prepare for this game and get better after last playing on November 17th.  UC Davis doesn't have the same luxury having last played on November 21st.  Weber State is 19-5 ATS in its last 24 games after scoring 55 points or less.  The Wildcats are 26-6 ATS in their last 32 games following a road loss where they scored less than 60 points.  The Wildcats are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games vs. Big West opponents, while the Aggies are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big Sky foes.  Take Weber State Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on UCLA -14.5

The UCLA Bruins are absolutely loaded this season.  They are off to a 4-0 start while averaging 105.7 points per game and outscoring opponents by 27.7 points per game.  They brought back four starters from last season and added in two of the top freshman recruits in the country.

Freshman TJ Leaf (20.2 ppg, 10.0 rpg) is an absolute load inside.  He's a McDonald's All-American who scored 3,022 points in his prep career.  Bryce Alford (18.8 ppg) and Isaac Hamilton (17.2 ppg, 4.8 apg) are the two top players back from last year.  Freshman Lonzo Ball (16.2 ppg, 9.0 apg, 6.2 rpg) is going to be one-and-done.  Aaron Holiday (14.5 ppg, 4.3 apg) and Thomas Welsh (10.0 ppg, 9.2 rpg) are also returning starters.

Portland went just 12-20 last season.  First-year head coach Terry Porter has done a good job of getting the Pilots to 3-0, but the wins have come against UC Riverside, San Jose State and Lewis Clark.  This is a big step up in class for the Pilots as they will be overmatched at all positions.

Portland is 11-29 ATS in its last 40 vs. teams who give up at least 77 points per game.  Steve Alford is 13-4 ATS off three straight wins by 15 points or more in all games he has coached.  The Bruins have won all four games by at least 15 points this season, and that streak will improve to five as they get the win and cover in the opener of the Wooden Classic.  Bet UCLA Thursday.

20* Wisconsin/UNC Maui Invitational No-Brainer on North Carolina -4.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels have been the most impressive team in the country thus far.  They have gone 6-0 with all six wins coming by 15 points or more.  They are averaging nearly 97 points per contest and winning by 29.3 points per game.  Now they're another win from capturing the Maui Invitational title.

Wisconsin doesn't have the firepower to keep up.  We saw that in the Badgers' only loss this season, a 67-79 setback at Creighton despite being 1.5-point favorites.  And Creighton runs and up-tempo style similar to that of the Tar Heels, who just beat Oklahoma State 107-75 as 9-point favorites yesterday.

UNC lost to Wisconsin in the Sweet 16 in 2015 and hasn't forgotten.  "Wisconsin knocked us out two years ago, so, of course, it would be great," Justin Jackson said. "But right now we're trying to just focus on Wisconsin. We know they're a really good team, so we've got to focus on them, but obviously a title would be great."

The Badgers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous games.  The Tar Heels are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  North Carolina is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet North Carolina Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -4.5

The Utah Jazz will be extremely motivated for a victory at home tonight.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, so they are clearly undervalued right now.  And one of those losses came against the Nuggets just three days ago in Denver, so they'll want revenge as well.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, come in on a 5-0 ATS winning streak.  They are starting to get a lot of respect from the books, and it's time to fade them.  And this is a very tired team right now as the Nuggets will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 12 days.

Meanwhile, the Jazz come in rested as they had two days off since losing to the Nuggets on Sunday.  They're hoping to get starting point guard George Hill back from injury.  And they have certainly owned this series as they are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Nuggets.

The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The Nuggets are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Salt Lake City.  The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Jazz Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +2.5

The Indiana Pacers are coming off a bad loss to the Golden State Warriors at home, which was the second of a back-to-back after beating Oklahoma City 115-111 in overtime on the road the night before.  And they were missing several key players in that contest against the Warriors.

But now the Pacers are expected to be healthier for this showdown against the Atlanta Hawks.  Jeff Teague is probable, while Paul George is on the probable side of questionable after missing the past three games.  Myles Turner is also probable.  The Pacers are 6-3 at home this season, while the Hawks are just 3-3 on the road.

The Hawks have lost three straight coming in and are clearly starting to wear down.  They even lost 94-112 at home to the Pelicans last night as 8-point favorites.  Now they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough as it gets in terms of rest situations in the NBA.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won five straight and seven of the last eight meetings.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Hawks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games.  Atlanta is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games following a loss.  The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home.  Roll with the Pacers Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets +2.5

The Chicago Bulls are way overvalued right now due to going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are now being asked to lay points on the road to the Denver Nuggets when they really shouldn't be favored.

The Bulls will start to wear down tonight.  They will be playing their 5th straight road games here and their 3rd game in 4 days after playing both the Clippers and Lakers in Los Angeles on back-to-back nights Saturday and Sunday.

The Denver Nuggets have been an undervalued commodity all season.  They've gone 9-4 ATS, including 4-0 ATS in their last four, yet they continue getting no respect from oddsmakers because of their 5-8 straight up record.  But they've have some real tough luck in close games this season.  They will be playing just their 4th game in 9 days here.

Chicago is 13-33 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons. The Nuggets are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  The home team is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings, and the Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Denver.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Nuggets Tuesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Auburn +6

The Auburn Tigers are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  Bruce Pearl is in his third season and finally has his players in place, which is why this team has performed so well in the early going.

They have guard T.J. Dunans back, who averaged 11.6 points in 16 games before injuring his left knee last season.  Guard Bryce Brown set an Auburn freshman record with 78 3-pointers.  Forward Horace Spencer finished third in the SEC in blocked shots last year.  Forward Danjel Purifoy was a redshirt freshman last year who was their top recruit.  Guard Mustapha Heron is a freshman five-star signee.  Guard Ronnie Johnson was a graduate transfer who average 9.4 points at Houston last year.

Auburn is 3-0 this season and 2-0 ATS in lined games.  It beat North Florida 83-66, Georgia State 83-65 as 7.5-point favorites and Eastern Kentucky 85-64 as 15.5-point favorites.  Texas Tech is also 3-0 with wins over Houston Baptist, North Texas and Eastern Kentucky.  That gives these teams a common opponent as Tech beat Eastern Kentucky by 19, while Auburn beat them by 21.

Purifoy (16.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Heron (14.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg) are clearly living up to their massive potential in the early going.  Jared Harper (11.7 ppg) and Brown (10.0 ppg) are also double-digit scorers.  Harper was rated as the No. 21 point guard nationally and the No. 6 recruit out of Georgia.  The Red Raiders are 10-25-1 ATS in their last 36 neutral site games.  Bet Auburn Tuesday.

15* Raptors/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 209.5

The Toronto Raptors are extremely tired right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight.  They started showing signs of slowing down last night in a 99-102 loss at Sacramento as they shot just 40% from the floor and easily went under the 211-point total.

I think the fatigue will hurt the Raptors a lot more on offense than it will on defense tonight.  Plus, the Raptors will be up against a Clippers team that ranks 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 96.5 points per 100 possessions.  The Clippers only allow 95.4 points per game on the season, including 90.1 points per game at home.

These teams met twice last season and both games went UNDER the total.  They scored 171 combined points with a 203.5-point total in their lone meeting in Los Angeles.  Then they scored 204 combined points with a 206.5-point total in their rematch in Toronto.  The UNDER is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings in Los Angeles.

Los Angeles is 21-4 UNDER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons, including 15-1 UNDER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.  The Clippers are 12-1 UNDER in home games vs. good teams who outscore their opponents ty 3-plus points per game over the last two years.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Creighton -9

The Creighton Bluejays returned four starters this season and added in G Marcus Foster, who sat out after transferring from Kansas State.  Foster is averaging 16.7 points and shooting 57.9% from 3-point range through thre games.  They are one of the top teams in the Big East, and that has already been proven in the early going.

The Blue Jays are 4-0 this season.  They only beat Missouri-KC 89-82, but that was a misleading final as they took the foot off the gas after leading 55-34 at half.  They came back and beat the favorite to win the Big Ten in Wisconsin 79-67 as 1.5-point dogs.  Then they beat Washington State 103-77 as 14.5-point favorites before dismantling NC State 112-94 as 5.5-point favorites last night.

Ole Miss went 20-12 last season, but it lost three starters from that team in Stefan Moody (23.6 ppg, 4.3 apg), Tomasz Gielo (9.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg) and Anthony Perez (7.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg).  The loss of Moody is huge because he was one of the very best players in the country.

Ole Miss is 4-0 this season as well, but I've been much less impressed with its results than Creighton's.  The Rebels only beat Tennessee-Martin 86-83 as 17-point home favorites and UMass 90-88 as 11-point home favorites.  Those two results were alarming, but they also only beat Oral Robers 95-88 as 8-point favorites on a neutral court.  They did cover in an 81-68 win as 2.5-point favorites of St. Joseph's, but St. Joe's is way down this season and that cover is getting them too much respect from the books today.

Since this is the second game in two days for these teams, it's important to look at how many minutes players played last night.  Well, Creighton is so deep that it didn't play anyone more than 29 minutes, and only one player played more than 26 minutes.  Meanwhile, Ole Miss played its best players big minutes.  Deandre Burnett played 36 minutes, Cullen Neal played 34 and Sebastian Saiz played 33.  So, I think this back-to-back hurts Ole Miss more because it lacked the depth of Creighton.

The Bluejays are 17-7 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Creighton is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 road games off three straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Bluejays are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  The Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet Creighton Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Pistons OVER 205.5

This is a very low total for any game that involves the Houston Rockets.  In fact, this is the second-lowest total for a Rockets game this season.  The lowest was 200.5 last time out against the Jazz, and they easily went over that with 213 combined points.

The Rockets and their opponents have combined for at least 200 points in 12 of 13 games this season.  Houston ranks 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging 109.2 points per 100 possessions.  It is averaging 109.1 points per game on the season and giving up 104.9.

The two meetings between the Pistons and Rockets last season were very high scoring.  They went over 198 points in a 116-105 home win for the Pistons for 221 combined points.  They also went over their 209.5-point total with ease in Houston with a 123-114 final and 237 combined points.

The OVER is 7-1 in Rockets last eight Monday games.  The OVER is 8-2 in Pistons last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings in Detroit.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Bulls/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +2.5

The Chicago Bulls are way overvalued right now.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  It's now time to fade them with the awful spot they are in here.

The Bulls will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd road games in 4 days.  They have to be fatigued after losing 95-102 to the Clippers last night, and I wouldn't be surprised if they were out partying last night in Los Angeles.

The Lakers have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season, going 7-6 SU & 8-4 ATS. They are still getting no respect from oddsmakers here as home underdogs.  And this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days, so they will be the much fresher team.

Los Angeles is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 home games.  The Lakers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Los Angeles is 5-1-1 ATS in its last six games playing on 1 days' rest.  The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Lakers Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Creighton -5.5

The Creighton Bluejays returned four starters this season and added in G Marcus Foster, who sat out after transferring from Kansas State.  Foster is averaging 16.7 points and shooting 57.9% from 3-point range through thre games.  They are one of the top teams in the Big East, and that has already been proven in the early going.

The Blue Jays are 3-0 this season.  They only beat Missouri-KC 89-82, but that was a misleading final as they took the foot off the gas after leading 55-34 at half.  They came back and beat the favorite to win the Big Ten in Wisconsin 79-67 as 1.5-point dogs.  Then they beat Washington State 103-77 yesterday as 14.5-point favorites.

NC State went 16-17 last season and lost its two best players from that team in Anthony Barger (23.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.5 apg) and Caleb Martin (11.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg).  The Wolfpack are off to a 3-0 start this season as well, but their wins have been much less impressive.  They only beat Georgia Southern 81-79 as 14-point home favorites, St. Francis-NY 86-61, and Montana 85-72 as 9-point favorites yesterday.

Creighton is 16-7 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Bluejays are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  Creighton is 35-16 ATS in its last 51 Sunday games.  The Wolfpack are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.  Take Creighton Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Davidson -2.5

The Davidson Wildcats returned four starters from last year's team that went 20-13 and made the NCAA Tournament.  They are led by Jack Gibbs (23.5 ppg, 5.0 apg last year) and Paton Aldridge (15.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg), two of the top players in the Atlantic 10.

Davidson crushed Missouri 70-55 as 5.5-point favorites yesterday, which is the same Missouri team that took 11th-ranked Xavier to overtime the day before.  Arizona State has not been good at all the past two days in this tournament, and that's why we'll fade the Sun Devils here.

Indeed, ASU lost to Northern Iowa 63-82 despite being a 3.5-point favorite.  It then only beat Tulane 80-71 yesterday as 10-point favorites, failing to cover the spread.  That's the same Tulane team that lost by 20 to UNC and by 19 to Oklahoma.

Davidson is 14-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Sun Devils are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games.  Arizona State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine Sunday games.  The Sun Devils are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games following a straight up win.  Roll with Davidson Sunday.

15* Rhode Island/Duke CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Rhode Island +8

The Rhode Island Rams brought back four starters this season who all averaged at least 9.8 points per game.  And they get back EC Mathews from injury.  Matthews has All-American potential and averaged 16.9 points per game in 2014-15.

The Rams got off to a blistering start this season in beating Dartmouth 84-61 as 18-point favorites and Marist 107-65 as 23-point favorites.  But then they had their worst performance of the season against rival Brown, only winning 79-72 as 24-point favorites.  I was on Brown in that game and figured it would be close because it's a rivalry.

But then I got back on Rhode Island yesterday against Cincinnati because I thought they were undervalued off the non-cover against Brown.  And the Rams delivered with a 76-71 win over Cincinnati as 2-point underdogs.  Now they are 4-0 and out to prove that they are one of the top teams in the country against Duke today.

Duke is overvalued already due to being ranked as the No. 1 team in the country.  But this team is far from full strength as they are forced to play players big minutes due to injury.  They are without star freshmen Jayson Tatum, Henry Giles and Marques Bolden already.

Then, in their 78-68 win over Penn State yesterday as 19-point favorites, both Grayson Allen and Chase Jeter suffered injuries.  Allen is expected to play through his toe injury today, but Jeter is doubtful with his ankle injury.  Only six players are averaging more than 10 minutes per game this season, and Jeter is one of them, so his loss is big.  And if Allen is hampered at all that's a huge loss because he is their best player.

The Blue Devils are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Duke is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games.  Bet Rhode Island Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are in a very tough spot here.  They are returning for their first home games followign a four-game road trip.  And they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.

After three straight road wins over Utah, the LA Clippers and Dallas, the Grizzlies are clearly primed for a letdown spot here.  The Timberwolves come on on a days' rest after throttling the 76ers 110-86 at home on Thursday.  This team is only going to continue to get better as the season goes on.

These teams have already played twice this season.  Minnesota blew a 20-plus point lead early in a 98-102 loss at Memphis, but bounced back with a 116-80 home win over the Grizzlies in the next meeting.  It's clear by those two results that the T'Wolves match up well with them, and this is certainly a favorable situation given the Grizzlies are running on fumes.

Plays against home underdogs (MEMPHIS) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Timberwolves are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Grizzlies are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.  Take the Timberwolves Saturday.

15* Cincinnati/Rhode Island Top 25 No-Brainer on Rhode Island +2.5

The Rhode Island Rams brought back four starters this season who all averaged at least 9.8 points per game.  And they get back EC Mathews from injury.  Matthews has All-American potential and averaged 16.9 points per game in 2014-15.

The Rams got off to a blistering start this season in beating Dartmouth 84-61 as 18-point favorites and Marist 107-65 as 23-point favorites.  But then they had their worst performance of the season against rival Brown, only winning 79-72 as 24-point favorites.  I was on Brown in that game and figured it would be close because it's a rivalry, and I think that non-cover has the Rams undervalued going into this showdown with Cincinnati.

After the Brown game, coach Dan Hurley, clearly not pleased, left all of his players in the locker room instead of bringing two with him when he met the media. He called the defensive play of his guards "pathetic." "We shot damn near 60 percent from the field (57.7 percent) and we just got outhustled," said Hurley.

Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Bearcats are 1-8 ATS in road games when playing only their second game in eight days over the past two seasons.  Bet Rhode Island Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5

The Dallas Mavericks are an absolute dumpster fire right now.  They are just 2-8 on the season and have rarely been competitive.  Their roster was already below-average prior to the season, but now with all the injuries they are dealing with, it's one of the worst in the NBA.

The Mavericks are now without their offensive spark plug in J.J. Barea, who suffered a strained calf last time out.  The Mavericks are already without Dirk Nowitzki (Achilles soreness) and Devin Harris (toe), and Deron Williams (strained calf) had to leave Wednesday's game before halftime after returning from a four-game absence.  Williams is doubtful to play tonight.  Those are four key players that they just can't afford to be without.

Conversely, the Memphis Grizzlies are starting to get healthy with the return of Chandler Parsons.  And they are starting to play up to their potential as a result.  They have pulled off huge upsets in their last two games, winning 102-96 in Utah as 6-point dogs, and 111-107 on the road over the Los Angeles Clippers as 12.5-point dogs.

The Grizzlies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Friday games.  The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Dallas is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games, losing by an average of 14.7 points per game.  Bet the Grizzlies Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2.5

The Atlanta Hawks are way overvalued right now because they have won six straight to improve to 9-2 on the season and in a first-place tie with the Cleveland Cavaliers.  However, the Hawks have benefited from a home-heavy schedule, and an easy schedule at that.

The Charlotte Hornets are 7-3 on the season yet they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They have played five games on the road and five at home.  The Hornets are outscoring opponents by 7.2 points per game at home this year.

The Hornets did lost three out of four meetings with the Hawks last season, but they lost the first two by a combined five points.  They beat the Hawks 107-84 as 3-point home dogs and lost 92-94 as 2-point home dogs in their two home meetings.

Atlanta will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days and could be without both Dwight Howard and Thobo Sefolosha.  Charlotte had two days off before this game and will be playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  The Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Atlanta is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games overall.  The home team is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Hornets Friday.

20* Michigan/SMU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on SMU -1

The SMU Mustangs went 25-5 last season and were clearly one of the better teams in the country.  Tim Jankovich, hired four years ago as an assistant as essentially the coach-in-waiting, is more than capable of replacing Larry Brown. He won 104 games in five seasons at Illinois State before arriving at SMU, and even went 9-0 last season while Brown sat out with a suspension.

Jankovich is working with a great team this season as the Mustangs return three starters in Ben Moore (11.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg last year), Shake Milton (10.5 ppg, 2.7 apg) and Sterling Brown (10.1 ppg, 53.6% 3-pointers).  These three have helped the Mustangs out to an impressive 3-0 start this season with a 72-44 win over Gardner Webb, a 91-64 win over Eastern Michigan as 12.5-point favorites, and a 76-67 win over Pitt as 5-point favorites.

Milton (13.0 ppg, 4.3 apg), Brown (10.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 4.3 apg) and Moore (9.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg) have all gotten off to nice starts this season.  But it's been Semi Ojeleye (22.7 ppg, 9.0 rpb) who has stolen the show.  He's a Duke transfer who is already contributing in a big way after sitting out last season.  Jarrey Foster (11.7 ppg) has taken his game to the next level after playing a significant role off the bench last year.

No question Michigan's 79-61 win over Marquette yesterday was impressive.  But everything went right for the Wolverines in the first half.  They weren't impressive in their first two games, a 76-58 home win over a Howard team that Marquette beat by 32.  And they only won by 12 over IUPUI as 17.5-point favorites.  I think they'll be overmatched here.  Bet SMU Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Marquette -1

I won with Marquette in their first two games in dominant performances.  The Golden Eagles won 95-71 as 2-point favorites over Vanderbilt on a neutral court, covering the spread by 22 points.  They also won 81-49 over Howard as 26-point favorites, covering the spread by 6 points.

That was the same Howard team that Michigan had only beaten by 18 in their season opener at home.  So the fact that Marquette lost to Michigan 79-61 last night was pretty much a complete fluke.  The Golden Eagles played terrible in the first half and trailed by 24 points.  But they cut the lead to 12 in the second half and played more up to their capability.

I look for the Golden Eagles to come out hungry tonight to make amends for that loss to Michigan.  They were maybe shell-shocked by playing in Madison Square Garden, which could have contributed to their first-half performance.  But they won't be tonight, and this is a team that won 20 games last year and is on the rise in the third season under Steve Wojciechowski.  They returned four starters this season, including three who averaged double-digits scoring last year.

I believe Pitt is going to struggle this season replacing head coach Jamie Dixon with Kevin Stallings, who consistently underachieved at Vanderbilt.  That has proven to be the case.  Pitt needed double-OT to beat Eastern Michigan 93-90 at home, which is the same EMU team that SMU beat by 27.  Pitt only beat Gardner Webb by 19 while SMU beat that same team by 28.  And then Pitt proceeded to lose to SMU 67-76 last night.

Marquette is 8-1 ATS in non-conference road games over the last three seasons.  Pitt is 19-42-1 ATS in its last 62 games overall.  The Panthers are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 non-conference games.  Pitt is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Take Marquette Friday.

15* Bulls/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -3.5

The Utah Jazz have gone 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Five of those six wins came by 11 points or more with five of them on the road.  In fact, they've played eight road games this season compared to just four at home, so their 7-5 record is impressive to this point.

I like the value we are getting with the Jazz as only 3.5-point favorites here.  The Chicago Bulls come in way overvalued due to three straight victories.  D-Wade won his return to Miami, then they beat the short-handed Wizards who were without John Wall and Bradley Beal.

The Bulls' 113-88 win at Portland on Tuesday was impressive, but it also had them overvalued here.  And the Jazz last played on Monday in a loss to the Grizzlies, so they will be motivated to bounce back, plus they've had two days to prepare for the Bulls.

The home team won both meetings between these teams last year.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Bulls are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Utah is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  Take the Jazz Thursday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Marquette -1

The Marquette Golden Eagles figure to be one of the most improve teams in the country entering Year 3 under Steve Wojciechowski.  They nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year with a 20-13 record and improved by leaps and bounds in his second season.

Now the Golden Eagles return four starters and should be primed to make the NCAA Tournament.  Their guards are loaded with Haanif Cheatham (11.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg), Jajuan Johnson (10.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg) and Traci Carter (5.4 ppg, 4.6 apg) returning as starters.  They also bring back big man Luke Fischer (12.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg).  Three of these guys are senior starters and primed for their best seasons yet.

I've been on Marquette in each of its first two games this season, both blowout wins.  They beat Vanderbilt 95-71 on the road as 2-point favorites and Howard 81-49 at home as 26-point favorites.  That 32-point win against Howard is significant because it gives these teams a common opponent.  Michigan only beat Howard by 18 at home, and it followed that up with a lackluster 12-point win over IUPUI as 17.5-point favorites.

Marquette is 8-0 ATS in road games off a non-conference game over the last three seasons.  The Golden Eagles are 7-0 ATS in November road games over the last three years.  Marquette is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. Big Ten opponents.  Take Marquette Thursday.

15* Pitt/SMU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on SMU -4

I love the handicap on this game because it's pretty simple.  These teams have two common opponents already through their first two games, and it's easy to see which team is superior when comparing the results.

Pitt needed double-OT to beat Eastern Michigan 93-90 at home and only beat Gardner Webb 99-80 at home.  SMU beat Eastern Michigan 91-64 at home and Gardner Webb 72-44 at home.

So, SMU outscored those two teams by an average of 27.5 points per game, while Pitt only outscored them by an average of 11.0 points per game.  I think we are getting a real discount here with SMU being only 4-point favorites over Pitt on a neutral court tonight when comparing common opponents.

Pitt is 3-14 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Panthers are 13-39-3 ATS in their last 55 games following a straight up win.  Roll with SMU Thursday.

15* Grizzlies/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +12

The Los Angeles Clippers are getting so much respect from oddsmakers right now due to their 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS records.  It's time to sell high on them here as they are being asked to lay a whopping 12 points at home to the Memphis Grizzlies now.

The Grizzlies are getting healthy as Chandler Parsons is starting to shake the rust off.  They are coming off their best performance of the season, a 102-96 win in Utah Monday night as 6-point underdogs.  Even veteran Vince Carter is playing well, averaging 19 points on 60 percent shooting in his past three games.

Memphis is going to want revenge from an 88-99 home loss to Los Angeles on November 4th just under two weeks ago in their first meeting this season.  The Grizzlies have played the Clippers very tough in the past few seasons, going 4-5 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings.  I look for them to keep this game close throughout tonight.

Los Angeles is 0-9 ATS after a game committing 10-plus less turnovers than its opponents over the past three seasons.  The Clippers are extremely overvalued now off their 127-95 win over the lowly Brooklyn Nets at home last time out.  Memphis will give them a fight.  Roll with the Grizzlies Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +7

The Atlanta Hawks are in a very tough spot here.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back following their 93-90 win at Miami last night.  And now they could be without C Dwight Howard, who suffered a quad injury against Miami and is questionable to play tonight.

The Milwaukee Bucks have had a whopping three days' rest to get ready for the Hawks.  They last played on November 12 in a 106-96 home victory over the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Bucks have been playing much better of late after a slow start, winning four of their last six games overall.

The Bucks won two of three meetings with the Hawks last season despite being underdogs in all three.  They won 108-101 as 4.5-point home dogs and 117-109 as 8.5-point road dogs.  They like the matchup, and the rest situation certainly favors them here as they should not be catching 7 points.

Milwaukee is 11-1 ATS off three consecutive non-conference games over the past three seasons.  The Bucks are 12-2 ATS off a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds over the last three years.  Atlanta is 49-72 ATS in its last 121 games off a close win by 3 points or less.  The road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Take the Bucks Wednesday.

20* Cavs/Pacers Eastern Conference No-Brainer on Indiana +5

The Indiana Pacers are 5-1 at home this season and will be highly motivated for tonight's game against the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers.  In recent years, Bankers Life Fieldhouse has been a tough place for LeBron James' teams to play. The Cavaliers beat the Pacers in Indianapolis in February last season. James's teams hadn't won a regular-season game in Indiana since February 2012 before that.

"Bankers Life Fieldhouse is always tough," James said. "It's been tough my whole career."

"It's a big game," Pacers coach Nate McMillan said. "The world champs are coming in here. It's kind of a game where you measure yourself."

The Cavaliers will be playing the second of a back-to-back after winning 121-117 at home against the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday night.  J.R. Smith didn't play last night and is questionable to return.  If he can't play, the Cavaliers will certainly miss his outside shooting and ability to stretch the floor.

Indiana went 1-3 against Cleveland last season, but all three losses came by 5 points or less.  The Pacers actually outscored the Cavs by one point in those four meetings because their lone win came by 14 points, while their three losses came by a combined 13 points.

The Cavaliers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Cleveland is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  Indiana is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game.  The Cavaliers are 0-6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing Indiana.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Brown +24.5

The Browns Bears and Rhode Island Rams are longtime local rivals.  This is a series that started during the 1909-1910 season with the Rams leading it 104-53 all-time.  The underdog Bears are simply going to want this one more, and they should keep it competitive.

Rhode Island is nationally ranked and overvalued now off two straight wins and covers over Dartmouth and Marist to open the season.  And I think the Rams will be looking ahead to their game against No. 24 Cincinnati and then quite possibly No. 1 Duke over the weekend at the Mohegan Sun Casino in Connecticut.

Brown did lose by 29 at Cincinnati in the opener, but came back with an impressive 88-79 home win over Niagara.  Steven Spieth had 27 points, 10 rebounds and 9 assists to just barely miss out on a triple-double.  Spieth (10.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 3.7 apg last year) is one of four returning starters for Brown.  The other three are Travon Blackmon (13.3 ppg, 5.5 apg), JR Hobbie (9.0 ppg, 41.9% 3-pointers) and Obi Okolie (10.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg).

Last year Rhode Island needed overtime to beat Brown 88-85 as 6.5-point road favorites.  Each of the last five meetings have been decided by 20 points or less and by an average of 10.6 points per game.  Only once in the 18 meetings has Rhode Island beating Brown by more than 24.5 points, which was a 25-point win in 2010.  That makes for a 17-1 system backing the Bears tonight.  Bet Brown Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves should not be underdogs at home to the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  This is a team that is only going to continue to improve with each game.  The Timberwolves have had some tough losses during their 3-6 start in which they've blown big leads.

However, Minnesota is coming off one of its most impressive performances of the season in a 125-99 home win over the Los Angeles Lakers.  The Timberwolves are outscoring opponents by an average of 11.2 points per game in their four home games this season.

The Charlotte Hornets are in a tough spot here.  They are coming off back-to-back losses against the top two contenders in the East in the Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers.  I look for them to suffer a hangover effect from those defeats and to not be able to emotionally get up to face the Timberwolves tonight.

Charlotte is 18-40 ATS in its last 58 road games vs. Northwest Division opponents.  The Timberwolves are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Cavs UNDER 208

The Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers are extremely familiar with one another.  That's because they played in the Eastern Conference Finals last year that wound up going six games.  And they've already played once this season.  That familiarity makes points very hard to come by.

That has been evident in these meetings.  The Cavs and Raptors have combined for 204 or fewer points in each of their last eight meetings.  They have averaged a combined 194.8 points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 208.  They combined for 185 points in a 94-91 Cleveland win in their first meeting this season.

Toronto is 10-1 UNDER in road games after covering four or five of their last six games against the spread over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 35-16 in Cavs last 51 vs NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Ball State -7

The Ball State Cardinals will be one of the best teams in the MAC this season.  They went 21-14 last season and improved from two wins in conference play to 10 in James Whitford's third season on the job.  Whitford is a former Arizona assistant and one of the most underrated coaches in the game.

Ball State's success last year was largely due to bombing from all angles as they canned 305 3-pointers while ranking 29th nationally in 3s and hitting them at a 37.2 percent clip.  Back for more are the four primary gunners in Francis Kiapway (74 3-pointers), Ryan Weber (70 3-pointers), Jeremie Tyler (59 3-pointers) and Sean Sellers.  They surround second-team All-MAC forward Franko House (12.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg), who would normally warrant a double-team.

We saw what Ball State was capable of with its 85-64 win at Saint Louis as 3.5-point favorites, easily covering the spread by 17.5 points.  The Cardinals hit 13 of 23 from 3-point range at a 56.5 percent clip.  House has 23 points and 6 rebounds, but two newcomers in Taylor Persons (21 points) and Tahjal Teague (10 points, 8 rebounds) performed well to show that the Cardinals have an absurd amount of depth.

Indiana State went 15-17 last season and lost two of its best players in Devonte Brown (15.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Khristian Smith (10.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg).  The Sycamores return just one player who scored more than 7.8 points per game last season.  They lost 78-80 at Northern Illinois in OT in their opener while shooting just 34.7% from the floor.

Indiana State is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games.  The Sycamores are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Indiana State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine Tuesday games.  Bet Ball State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Siena +1.5

I fully expect the Siena Saints to run away with the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference title this season.  That's because they return all five starters from last year, including MAAC Defensive Player of the Year Javion Ogunyemi (14.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 71 blocks) from a team that went 21-13 last season.

Also back are three double-digit scorers in Brett Bisping (15.9 ppg, 10.4 rpg), Marquis Wright (14.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and Lavon Long (10.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg).  Kenny Wormley (4.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg) is another returning starters, and Nico Clareth (13.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg) is a huge weapon off the bench as he canned 55 3-pointers last season.

I think the fact that Siena didn't cover as 14.5-point favorites in an 89-78 home win over Cornell in their opener has them a bit undervalued here.  But they led that game 48-34 at halftime before getting outscored after intermission.  Wright (31 points), Bisping (23 points, 15 boards), Clareth (14 points) and Ogunyemi (13 points) all scored in double figures to lead the way for the Saints.

George Washington is coming off a 28-10 season while winning the NIT title.  But the losses are big for the Colonials as they part ways with three starters in Patricio Garino (14.1 ppg, 4.2 rpg), Kevin Larsen (12.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg) and Joe McDonald (8.8 ppg, 3.1 apg).  The Colonials really struggled in their opener, only beating Maryland-East Shore 75-71 at home while committing 20 turnovers.

Siena is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pick 'em.  Plays against any team (GEORGE WASHINGTON) - first five games of the season, after closing out last season strong with five or more straight wins are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Siena Tuesday.

20* Michigan State/Kentucky ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Michigan State +8.5

I like the value we are getting here with the Michigan State Spartans.  They blew a 17-2 lead against Arizona and lost 65-63 on a buzzer-beater in their opener.  I think they are being undervalued because of that loss.

Kentucky is 2-0 with home wins over Stephen F. Austin (87-64) and Canisius (93-69).  But this team is very young and inexperienced as they start three freshmen.  I don't think they are ready to handle this big stage in Madison Square Garden tonight.

I also like the fact that Michigan State has had much more time to prepare and correct its mistakes.  It has had three days off since the loss to Arizona.  Kentucky has only had one day to prepare for Michigan State after beating Canisius on Sunday.

Michigan State is 30-9 ATS in its last 39 games off a close loss by 3 points or less, and 8-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  Kentucky is 0-7 ATS off a game where it was called for 27 or more fouls over the last three years.  The Wildcats are 12-30 ATS in their last 42 off two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more.  Take Michigan State Tuesday.

15* Maryland/Georgetown FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Georgetown -5.5

The Georgetown Hoyas will be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They return four starters in L.J. Peak (12.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg), Isaac Copeland (11.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg), Marcus Derrickson (7.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg) and Bradley Hayes (8.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg).  The Hoyas opened their season with a 105-60 trouncing of USC Upstate.

Maryland will take a big step back this season after winning 27 games last year.  It only brings back one starter in Melo Trimble, and it loses four starters who were all double-digit scorers last year in Diamond Stone (12.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg), Jake Layman (11.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg), Rasheed Sulaimon (11.3 ppg, 3.5 apg) and Robert Carter Jr. (12.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg).

The Terrapins were awful in their opener as they only beat American 62-56 despiting being 21-point home favorites. They shot just 38.5% from the floor, and Trimble is simply being asked to do too much now.  They also committed 18 turnovers while only forcing 12.  Georgetown forced 26 turnovers in its opener.

The Hoyas are 39-22 ATS in their last 61 games off a home blowout win by 20 points or more.  Georgetown is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Big Ten foes.  Maryland is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. Big East opponents.  A loaded Maryland team only beat Georgetown 75-71 as 9-point home favorites last year.  It's revenge time for the Hoyas at home this time around as these teams absolutely hate each other.  Roll with Georgetown Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Jazz UNDER 190

The Grizzlies and Jazz have consistently played in low-scoring games in recent meetings.  These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA because they are two of the few that are dominated by their big men inside.  It's Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph for Memphis, and Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors for Utah.

The Grizzlies and Jazz have combined for 190 or fewer points in nine consecutive meetings.  They have combined for 182, 179, 168, 177, 175, 190, 188, 178 and 182 points in their last nine meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 179.9 combined points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than tonight's posted total.

The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Utah.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Jazz last 12 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 4-1-1 in Grizzlies last six games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Marquette -24.5

The Marquette Golden Eagles figure to be one of the most improve teams in the country entering Year 3 under Steve Wojciechowski.  They nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year with a 20-13 record and improved by leaps and bounds in his second season.

Now the Golden Eagles return four starters and should be primed to make the NCAA Tournament.  Their guards are loaded with Haanif Cheatham (11.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg), Jajuan Johnson (10.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg) and Traci Carter (5.4 ppg, 4.6 apg) returning as starters.  They also bring back big man Luke Fischer (12.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg).  Three of these guys are senior starters and primed for their best seasons yet.

Marquette made a statement with a 95-71 win over Vanderbilt on a neutral court as 1.5-point favorites in the opener.  JaJuan Johnson had 21 points and six steals, Luke Fischer had 18 points and 7 rebounds, and Haanif Cheatham had 15 points and 6 boards to lead the way for the Golden Eagles, who shot 52.7% from the floor and held the Commodores to 39.7% shooting.
 
Howard lost 58-76 at Michigan in its opener.  The Bison were expected to have all 5 starters back this season, but they were dealt a big blow with an injury to their best player.  James Daniel might be the best player that you have never heard of.  He averaged 27.1 points per game last season to lead the nation in scoring.  He took an astonishing 37.1 percent of the team's shots, so his loss is absolutely massive for this team.

Howard is 0-9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bison are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 lined games overall.  Take Marquette Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +16.5

After back-to-back blowout victories over the Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets, the Golden State Warriors are way overvalued now as 16.5-point home favorites over the Phoenix Suns.  I'll gladly fade them as I fully expect this game to go down to the wire.

The Suns will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight, but they had two days off before playing the Nets yesterday.  This is one of the deepest teams in the NBA, so they can handle these situations much better than the average team.  And of course they are going to get up to face the Warriors tonight.

The Suns want revenge from a 100-106 home loss to the Warriors as 11.5-point dogs on October 30th in their first meeting this season.  That was yet another close loss for the Suns recently in this series.  Each of the last three meetings have been decided by 8 points or fewer as the Suns have gone 3-0 ATS while being double-digit dogs each time.

Phoenix is 9-1 ATS off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Suns are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS loss.  Phoenix is 40-16-2 ATS in its last 58 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  Golden State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games when playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Suns Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan +13.5

Eastern Michigan is certainly a 'bet on' team for me this season.  The Eagles are one of the best teams in the MAC because of all that they have returning.  They have five of their top six players back from a team that went 18-15 last year.  They will deliver their fourth consecutive winning season this year and likely compete for a MAC title.

Sophomore center James Thompson IV (14.8 ppg, 10.6 rpg) proved why he signed with an SEC school as a senior in High School.  He and LSU's Ben Simmons, the No. 1 player in the draft, were they only freshmen in the country to average a double-double last year.  He is surrounded by shooters in seniors Willie Mangum IV and Raven Lee, who combined for 113 3-pointers last year.  Binghamton transfer Nick Madray is a solid stretch 4, and Tim Bond is a glue guy who made the MAC's All-Defensive team.

The Eagles already showed what they were capable of with a 90-93 (2 OT) loss at Pittsburgh as 11.5-point underdogs in their opener Friday night.  Now they are catching a big number against an SMU team that I don't believe to be as good as Pitt.

The Mustangs lose three of their best players from last year in Nic Moore (16.1 ppg, 5.2 apg), Jordan Tolbert (11.6 ppg, 8.5 rpg) and Markus Kennedy (9.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg).  Head coach Larry Brown abruptly retired amid contract negotiations in July, and probably due to all the turmoil surrounding the postseason ban last year.  That leaves assistant Tim Jankovich to take over the duties.  SMU is 23-43 ATS in its last 66 home games off a home win.  Take Eastern Michigan Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are much better than their 2-5 record would indicate.  They blew big leads in three of their five losses, and small leads in the other two.  They just weren't able to finish games up to this point.  Now I think we are getting them at a discount here as 5-point home underdogs to the Los Angeles Clippers.

The Timberwolves have a huge edge in rest.  They come in on two days' rest, while the Clippers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  That's one of the toughest situations in the NBA, especially after a huge 110-108 win at Oklahoma City last night.  I don't think they'll have much left in the tank here.

Plays on underdogs (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 105 points or more three straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 36-10 (78.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Timberwolves are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Roll with the Timberwolves Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland State +1

Ruined by transfer rules allowing graduates to transfer elsewhere and play immediately, Cleveland State lost two starters last year and a third who vacated the year before, leaving head coach Gary Waters in a reclamation project and a drop in the standings to just 9-23 overall.  It was a rare down season for Waters, who is 185-150 at CSU.

But now the Vikings return three starters and will be vastly improved.  They do have to add in six newcomers, but three of them have junior college experience, and four of them are 6-7 or 6-8.  Sophomore G Rob Edwards (12.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and senior F Demonte Flannigan (11.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg) return as the two leading scorers from last year.  Another starter in G Terrell Hales is back, plus four key reserves who played significant minutes return.

Kent State loses three starters from a team that went 19-13 last season.  It also brings back one reserve that played significant minutes last season.  I fully expect the Golden Flashes to take a big step back this season with basically only three players back who contributed last season.

Rob Senderoff is 1-8 ATS in all neutral court games as the coach of Kent State.  Senderoff is 0-6 ATS as a neutral court favorite as the coach of the Golden Flashes.  This game will be played in Youngstown, Ohio in the Coaches vs Cancer tournament.  Bet Cleveland State Saturday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Drake -4

The Drake Bulldogs are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  They went just 7-24 last season, but their point differential does not match their record.  They were only outscored by 4.4 points per game on average for the entire season.

This was a very young Drake team last year, but that's the case no longer.  The Bulldogs bring back four starters and five reserves who played last year.  That includes leading scorer Reed Timmer (16.8 ppg) and Graham Woodward (10.8 ppg), both junior guards.  They add in JUCO transfer De'Antae McMurray to a talented backcourt.

South Dakota went 14-18 last season in Craig Smith's second season with the team.  But now the Coyotes are basically starting from scratch.  They lose all five starters from last season, who all averaged at least 8.3 points per game.

Smith brought in some transfers from other schools to help make up for the departures, but I don't expect the Coyotes to exactly be hitting on all cylinders in the early going with all of the losses.  They lost their top six players in terms of minutes from last year.  Take Drake Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -8.5

The San Antonio Spurs are going to be highly-motivated for a victory here tonight.  They have lost two straight and three of their last four after a 4-0 start.  The Spurs have inexplicably lost three straight home games after losing just one all of last season during the regular year.

Greg Popovich will get the most out of his players here tonight, especially considering the Spurs are well-rested and ready to go tonight.  This will be just their 2nd game in 6 days, so they will be laying it all on the line in this one.

The Detroit Pistons are 4-0 at home this season, but 0-4 on the road.  They haven't even been competitive away from home this season as they are getting outscored by 16.2 points per game on the road.  They really miss starting PG Reggie Jackson in the early going, and I give them little chance of being competitive here.

San Antonio is 10-1 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to win by an average of 13.3 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on New York Knicks +5.5

The New York Knicks are showing great value here as road underdogs to the Boston Celtics.  The Knicks are starting to catch on to Jeff Hornacek's system as they have won two of their last three while averaging 112.0 points per game in the process.

The Boston Celtics simply should not be favored against many teams right now with the injuries they are dealing with.  They have been without two starters in Al Horford and Jae Crowder in their last couple games, and the results have not been pretty.

The Celtics have lost three straight.  The last two have been especially alarming.  They lost 107-123 as 7-point home favorites over the Nuggets, and 93-118 as 1.5-point road dogs against the Wizards.  Horford and Crowder are their two best defenders, and they miss them more on that end than anything as they are giving up 123.0 points per game in their last three.

This has been a closely-contested series recently as each of the last five meetings were decided by single-digits.  The Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last six Friday games.  New York is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Atlantic division opponents.  Boston is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Knicks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +7.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers may be 6-1 this season, but they have made for excellent fade material as they have been overvalued time and time around.  I think the championship hangover is real, and they aren't giving max effort every night they take the court.

After visiting the White House Thursday, the players' focus certainly won't be on this game as much as it otherwise would be.  That's a huge distraction, and I don't expect the Cavaliers to be putting their best foot forward tonight because of it.

The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They haven't beaten a team by more than 8 points this season since the opener against New York.  Five of their seven games have been decided by 6 points or less.  That is likely to be the case against here against the Wizards, who haven't lost by more than 10 points since their opener.

The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Cavs while only losing by more than 6 points once during that stretch.  They actually won two of their four meetings with the Cavs outright last season.  They have a good shot of pulling off the upset here again tonight.  Take the Wizards Friday.

15* Vanderbilt/Marquette Veterans Classic No-Brainer on Marquette -1

The Marquette Golden Eagles figure to be one of the most improve teams in the country entering Year 3 under Steve Wojciechowski.  They nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year with a 20-13 record and improved by leaps and bounds in his second season.

Now the Golden Eagles return four starters and should be primed to make the NCAA Tournament.  Their guards are loaded with Haanif Cheatham (11.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg), Jajuan Johnson (10.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg) and Traci Carter (5.4 ppg, 4.6 apg) returning as starters.  They also bring back big man Luke Fischer (12.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg).  Three of these guys are senior starters and primed for their best seasons yet.

Vanderbilt is in a transition phase as Kevin Stallings left for Pittsburgh.  The Commodores made a solid higher in Bryce Drew from Valparaiso, but I believe there will be some growing pains in his first season.  That's because the Commodores lose their two leading scorers from last year in G Wade Baldwin IV (14.1 ppg, 5.2 apg) and C Damian Jones (13.9 ppg, 6.9 rpg) to the NBA.

Marquette is 7-0 ATS in non-conference road games over the last three seasons.  Roll with Marquette Friday.

15* Bulls/Heat TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Miami -2

The Miami Heat are rested and ready to go tonight against the Chicago Bulls.  They will be hungry following back-to-back losses on the road to the Toronto Raptors and Oklahoma City Thunder.  They have had two days off since that loss to the Thunder to get ready for the Bulls.

The Chicago Bulls certainly don't have that same luxury.  This is a tired team right now as the Bulls will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after losing 107-115 in Atlanta last night.  They have lost four of their last five games overall coming in.

The problem with the Bulls is that they do not play defense.  They have given up at least 107 points in four of their last five games, all four of which were losses.  The only exception was a win over the Orlando Magic at home, but the Magic are one of the worst teams in the NBA.

Chicago is 4-15 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the past two seasons.  The Bulls are 3-17 ATS against Southeast division opponents over the last two years.  Chicago is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games playing on 0 days' rest.  Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Heat are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games overall.  The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Heat Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as only 3.5-point home favorites here against the Toronto Raptors.  Since Kevin Durant left, this team was pretty much written off, and they have been playing with a chip on their shoulder in the early going.

The Thunder are 6-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to Durant's Warriors, which was the second of a back-to-back after a huge road win over the Clippers the night before.  The Thunder are 4-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 13.0 points per game.

The Toronto Raptors are overvalued right now after their 4-2 start.  But they have played five of their six games at home, and their only road win came at Washington, which is 1-5 right now.  The Raptors lost 91-96 at home to the Kings last time out and were without key center Jonas Valanciunas.  Valanciunas is doubtful to return tonight.

The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win by more than 10 points or more.  Oklahoma City is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.  Roll with the Thunder Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +3

The Atlanta Hawks are in a huge letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 110-106 road win over the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers as 7.5-point underdogs last night.  I fully expect them fall flat on their faces tonight off such a big win.

That now makes this a very tough spot for the Hawks.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days.  The Bulls come in on one days' rest after a blowout 112-80 win over the Orlando Magic.  It was their best defensive performance of the season as they held the Magic to just 38.8% shooting.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take the Bulls Wednesday.

15* Mavs/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4.5

The Los Angeles Lakers appear to be the most improved team in the NBA in the early going.  I think they are still being undervalued here by oddsmakers as only 4.5-point home favorites over the Dallas Mavericks.

The Lakers look like a poor man's Warriors this season with the hiring of Luke Walton.  They are spreading the floor and letting their young playmakers go to work.  The Lakers have opened 4-3 SU but 6-1 ATS.  All three of their losses came on the road.

But the Lakers are 3-0 at home this season.  They beat the Rockets 120-114 as 6-point dogs, the Warriors 117-97 as 11.5-point dogs, and the Suns 119-108 as 4-point favorites.  I was really impressed with the way they came back and beat the Suns in a clear letdown spot following that 20-point win over the Warriors.

The Dallas Mavericks are a mess right now.  They are just 1-5 on the season with their only victory coming at home in overtime against the Bucks, who were playing the second of a back-to-back and were tired.  Not helping matters is that the Mavs are without two key players in Dirk Nowitzki and Deron Williams right now.

I expect the Lakers to run the Mavs out of the gym tonight.  They are scoring 110.3 points per game on the season, while the Mavs are being held to 95.5 points per game on 41.1% shooting.  Los Angeles is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games.  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +8

The Phoenix Suns are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  I know they're just 2-5, but one loss came on the road to the Thunder in overtime, and another was a 6-point loss to the Warriors as 11.5-point home underdogs.

The Portland Trail Blazers are 4-3 this season and overvalued off back-to-back victories over the Mavericks and Grizzlies, who both have struggled early.  The Blazers have a big game against the Clippers on deck tomorrow night, and they could be looking ahead to that one as the first meeting between them and the Clippers was very chippy back on October 27th.

Both the Suns and Blazers are guard-oriented, which makes this a great matchup for the Suns.  That has proven to be the case in recent meetings.  The Suns are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last three meetings with the Blazers since last season.  They won 118-115 (OT) as 3-point home dogs in their first meeting this year.  I look for them to go on the road this time around and keep this one close, possibly pulling off the upset.

Plays on road underdogs (PHOENIX) - after allowing 105 points or more three straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Suns are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss.  Phoenix is 39-16-2 ATS in its last 57 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  The Suns are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Roll with the Suns Tuesday.

0* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -4

The Minnesota Timberwolves will be motivated for a victory tonight after a 1-4 start to the season.  But this team is way better than its record would indicate as they have been the kings of blowing big first half leads in three of their four losses.

Now the Timberwolves get to go up against the Brooklyn Nets, who are one of the wrost teams in the NBA.  The Nets are 2-4 on the season and are getting way too much respect here from oddsmakers due to going 5-1 ATS.  But this is their smallest underdog role thus far, which shows just how much respect they're getting.

The Timberwolves made easy work of the Nets in their two meetings last season.  They won 100-85 as 1.5-point road favorites, and 132-118 as 9.5-point home favorites.  The Nets are without starting PG Jeremy Lin, which is a big blow to a roster that already lacks talent.

Plays against home underdogs (BROOKLYN) - poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in two straight games are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Brooklyn is 4-16 ATS off three or more consecutive home games over the past three seasons.  Minnesota is 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings.  The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +7.5

The Utah Jazz are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  The schedule makers have certainly done them no favors here in the early going, and I think they run out of gas tonight.

Gordon Hayward made his season debut last night for the Jazz in the 114-109 win at New York.  They didn't hold him back at all as he played a whopping 35 minutes.  He will surely feel the effects tonight.  Rodney Hood played 38 minutes, George Hill played 35 and Rudy Gobert played 33 last night as well.

The Philadelphia 76ers are hungry for their first win of the season.  They are 0-5, but they have come oh-so-close in three home games.  They only lost 97-103 (OT) to the Thunder as 9-point dogs, 101-103 to the Magic as 5-point dogs, and 101-102 to the Cavaliers as 12-point dogs.  They should easily stay within this 7.5-point spread tonight, possibly pulling off the upset.

The 76ers are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. NBA Northwest division foes.  Philadelphia is 37-17-2 ATS in its last 56 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Jazz are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the 76ers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2.5

The Dallas Mavericks are extremely hungry for their first win of the season today.  But due to their 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS start, the Mavs are undervalued right now.  We are getting a discount here with them as only 2.5-point favorites over the Milwaukee Bucks.

It's the perfect storm really because the Bucks are overvalued right now after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games.  But those three wins came against the Pelicans on the road, and the Pacers and Kings at home.

And now the Bucks are in one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  I don't believe they'll have enough gas left in the tank to match the Mavericks tonight, especially with the Mavs playing desperate basketball to get that first win.

The Bucks are 48-87 ATS in their last 135 games following 3 or more consecutive wins.  Milwaukee is 5-16 ATS after playing a game as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Mavs have gone 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Bucks.  They have won their last three home meetings by 10, 23 and 13 points.  Bet the Mavericks Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3

The Indiana Pacers will be highly motivated for a victory here Saturday night.  They are 2-0 at home, but 0-3 on the road.  One of those road losses came at Chicago on October 29th.  So, the Pacers will be out for revenge on the Bulls in this one.

And the Bulls are in a tough spot as it is.  While the Pacers had yesterday off to prepare for revenge on the Bulls, Chicago played New York yesterday.  So, the Bulls will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four days.  This is a fatigued team right now that won't be able to keep up with Indiana's aggressiveness.

The Pacers are playing an even more attacking style this season, which will exploit the Bulls' fatigue.  They are putting up 109.4 points per game this season while shooting 39.3% from 3-point range.  And once Jeff Teague gets acclimated to his new team and offense soon, it's going to be even more explosive.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team has won six of the past seven meetings.  Indiana is 32-12 SU at home against Chicago in its last 44 meetings.  The Pacers are 24-10 ATS after having lost three of their last four games over the past three seasons.  The home team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Indiana.  Take the Pacers Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +3.5

I've been on the Phoenix Suns in every game this season and I'm going to continue to back them as long as they are undervalued.  There's no way the Suns should be underdogs here against the 0-5 New Orleans Pelicans.

The SUns have played a brutal early schedule, and they are undervalued because they are 1-4.  But they only lost by 3 at Oklahoma City as 7.5-point dogs, and by 6 at home to Golden State as 11.5-point dogs.  They beat Portland 118-115 (OT) last time out as 2.5-point dogs to give them some confidence.  And their other two losses came to the Clippers (on a back-to-back) and Kings (opener).

The Pelicans just can't catch a break in the injury department.  They are missing two starters in Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans, which is the biggest reason they are 0-5.  They have lost to the Nuggets, Warriors and Bucks at home, as well as the Spurs and Grizzlies on the road.  They simply have to rely too much on Anthony Davis right now because they are playing so many scrubs and inexperienced players due to the injuries.

The Suns crushed the Pelicans in their finale two meetings last season, winning 104-88 at home and 121-100 on the road.  New Orleans is 8-18 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Pelicans are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Plays against home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 110 points or more two straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Suns Friday.

20* Knicks/Bulls ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 211.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this matchup between the Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks.  I expect the defensive intensity in this game to be very high with both Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah making their much-anticipated returns to Chicago.

The Bulls wanted to play faster under Fred Hoiberg, but that just hasn't been the case.  They rank 19th in pace this season at 98.7 possessions per game.  But they have actually been very good on defense this year as they are 12th in defensive efficiency, giving up 100.4 points per 100 possessions.

That's really impressive when you consider the Bulls have faced the Celtics (twice) and Pacers, along with the up-tempo Nets.  They have played some of the best offenses in the NBA to this point.  And we've seen 207 or fewer combined points scored in three of Chicago's four games.

The Knicks have scored 99 or fewer points in three of their four games this season.  They are lost offensive right now as they are trying to learn Jeff Hornacek's new system.  Indeed, the Knicks rank 27th in offensive efficiency, scoring only 96.1 points per 100 possessions.

Recent head-to-head history also favors the UNDER.  The Bulls and Knicks have combined for 200 or fewer points in 10 of their last 11 meetings.  That makes for a 10-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 211.5-point total set.  New York is 9-0 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last two seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Timberwolves UNDER 209.5

The oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this matchup between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight.  Minnesota is without starting PG Ricky Rubio, while Denver is without leading scorer Will Barton and starting SG Gary Harris.

Tom Thibodeau has changed the culture in Minnesota.  He has them slowing it down and playing defense.  The Timberwolves rank 28th in the NBA in pace, averaging just 96.2 possessions per game.  They will control the tempo here playing at home.  It's also worth noting that Minnesota ranks 6th in defensive efficiency, while Denver is 8th in the early going.

Recent head-to-head history between these teams even before Thibodeau was in Minnesota shows that there's value with the UNDER.  They have combined for 152, 212, 200, 173 and 185 points at the end of regulation in their last five meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 184.4 combined points per game, which is roughly 25 points less than tonight's posted total of 209.5.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 85 points or less against opponent after allowing 100 points or more three straight games are 32-9 (78%) over the last five seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves really should be 3-0 right now.  Instead they are 1-2 and undervalued.  They blew a 17-point lead at Memphis and lost 98-102.  They also blew an 18-point lead at Sacramento and lost 103-106.

But the Timberwolves showed a lot of fight in their home opener on Tuesday against Memphis.  They beat the Grizzlies 116-80 after keeping their foot on the gas for four quarters.  Look for more of the same here at home against the Denver Nuggets.

The Nuggets are also 1-2, and while I really like this team and have backed them with success against the spread, I like the Timberwolves more.  The Nuggets' only win came on the road at New Orleans, which is 0-5 on the season.  They lost at home to Portland and on the road to Toronto.

While the Timberwolves are without Ricky Rubio, I believe they are better with Kris Dunn, who had 10 points, six assists and five steals in 29 minutes in the win over Memphis.  Denver is expected to be without Will Barton, who is their leading scorer at 18 points per game.  Gary Harris is also expected to miss this game with a groin injury.  Bet the Timberwolves Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix Suns +3.5

The Phoenix Suns are 0-4 this season and undervalued as a result.  But they have played a brutal schedule to open the season, and they're really going to be hungry for their first win at home tonight.

The Suns have lost to the Kings, Thunder, Warriors and Clippers.  They only lost by 3 at Oklahoma City in overtime as 7.5-point dogs, and by 6 at home to Golden State as 11.5-point dogs to really show what they are capable of.

The Portland Trail Blazers are in an awful spot here.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  And they just lost 104-127 to the Warriors last night, so they won't be nearly as excited to play the Suns here.  This is clearly a hangover spot for the Blazers.

Phoenix is 13-3 ATS in home games off a loss by 10 points or more over the past two seasons.  Plays on underdogs (PHOENIX) - after allowing 100 points or more four straight games against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more three straight games are 33-11 (75%) ATS since 1996.  Phoenix is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

20* Bulls/Celtics ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Boston -3.5

The Boston Celtics want revenge from their only loss of the season, a 99-105 loss at Chicago on October 27th.  They were playing the second of a back-to-back that night, so it wasn't a great spot for them.

Now the Celtics have had three days off in between games to prepare for the Bulls, who have only had one day off.  That's a really nice rest advantage here, so the Celtics should be laying it all on the line tonight.

The Bulls come in overvalued due to their 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season.  But two of their wins have come at home, and the other was a road win over the Brooklyn Nets, who are one of the worst teams in the NBA.

Chicago is 3-13 ATS off a road win over the past two seasons.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Celtics are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +10.5

The Utah Jazz are simply catching too many points tonight against the San Antonio Spurs.  We'll gladly take advantage and back them as double-digit underdogs here.

This is really the perfect storm.  Utah is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS, while San Antonio is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS.  The betting public is all over the Spurs because of this and quick to fade the Jazz.  That has created some artificial line value here with the road dog.

It's worth noting that the Spurs have covered two games by a half point as they won by 8 as 7.5-point favorites over the Kings, and by 7 as 6.5-point favorites over the Heat.  It's also worth noting that both Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge are banged up right now, though both are expected to play.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (UTAH) - after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games against opponent after a game where they covered the spread are 162-100 (61.8%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Jazz Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/T'Wolves UNDER 199.5

The Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves are already familiar with one another.  That's because they both opened the season against each other on October 26th.

Memphis beat Minnesota 102-98 for 200 combined points, barely going over the 199-point total.  Now we're seeing a similar total in the rematch, but points are going to be much harder to come by in the rematch.  That's why I believe there's a ton of value with the UNDER tonight.

I've also checked out the pace stats, and these are two of the slowest teams in the NBA.  Memphis ranks 28th in pace at 95.5 possessions per game.  Minnesota is 29th in pace at 94.3 possessions per game as Tom Thibodeau has them playing at a much slower tempo than last year.

The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these teams in Minnesota.  Memphis is 53-33 UNDER in its last 86 road games after scoring 110 points or more in its previous game.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after scoring 100 points or more three straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in two straight games are 37-12 (75.5%) since 1996.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are hungry for their first victory of the season.  After going on the road for their first two games and losing a couple heartbreakers, now they will be playing their home opener in front of a hostile crowd.  I look for a big performance from them.

And the Timberwolves really should have won their first two games.  They held an early 17-point lead against Memphis before losing 98-102.  They also squandered a big lead at Sacramento on Saturday.  They gave up an 18-point lead in the first half and lost 103-106.

Adding to the motivation for the Timberwolves is that they want revenge on Memphis here.  They were outscored by the Grizzlies 52-39 in the second half of the opener.  The Grizzlies are 2-1 this season, but they lost their only road game 104-111 to the New York Knicks.

The Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games.  Memphis is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  The Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing Minnesota.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* Suns/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +10.5

The Phoenix Suns are going to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They have shown that in their past two games as they've hung right with two of the best teams in the Western Conference in the Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors.

The Suns lost 110-113 in overtime at Oklahoma City as 7.5-point dogs on Friday, and then gave the Warriors all they could handle in a 100-106 home loss Sunday as 11.5-point dogs.  But they're now 0-3 on the season, so they are extremely hungry for a victory right now, which should have them keeping this game close.

The Los Angeles Clippers are overvalued here today after starting 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS with wins over the Blazers and the Jazz.  They beat the Blazers by 8 as 2.5-point road favorites, and the Jazz by 13 as 7.5-point home favorites on Sunday.  The Blazers were playing the second of a back-to-back, while the Jazz were playing short-handed.

The Suns gave the Clippers trouble last season, going 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS.  They won 114-105 and 118-104 in their two home meetings, and also only lost by 6 as 8.5-point road dogs in their three covers.  I look for them to stay within double-digits here tonight and possibly pull off the upset.

The Clippers are 5-16 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the past three seasons.  Plays against home teams (LA CLIPPERS) - first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games, good team from last season (60% to 75%) playing a bad team from last year (25% to 40%) are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Suns Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Denver Nuggets +7

The Denver Nuggets aren't getting any respect from oddsmakers in the early going, so I'm going to continue to back them here as I expect them to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA.  They are catching 7 points here against the Toronto Raptors, which I feel is too much.

The Nuggets opened the season with a 107-102 road win over the Pelicans as 1.5-point dogs.  They led by double-digits most the way and outrebounded the Pelicans 69-42, and won despite committing 24 turnovers.  Then they lost to the Blazers 113-115 (OT) as 1.5-point home dogs.  They shot just 38% from the field, but had a 72-57 edge on the boards, which kept them in the game.

And they had a 2-point lead in regulation with 15 seconds left and turned the ball over.  They had a 2-point lead with four seconds left and missed two free throws.  So, they should have won that game, and they'll come back motivated here.

I like to fade the Toronto Raptors in this spot.  Their last game came at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers in a 91-94 loss.  After facing the defending champs last game, I don't foresee them being nearly as motivated to face the Nuggets tonight.

The Nuggets won both meetings with the Raptors as underdogs last season.  They won 106-105 as 10-point road dogs, and 112-93 as 4.5-point home dogs.  Denver is 10-1 ATS off two straight games where they outrebounded their opponent by 15 or more.  The Nuggets are 24-13 ATS as a road underdog over the past two seasons.  Denver is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Toronto.  The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Nuggets Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +12

It's no surprise that the Golden State Warriors have opened 2016-17 way overvalued with the addition of Kevin Durant.  That has proven to be the case as they are 0-2 ATS.

They lost 100-129 at home to San Antonio as 8-point favorites, and failed to cover as 12.5-point road favorites in a 122-114 road win over the Pelicans.  Now they are once again overvalued here as they're being asked to lay a whopping 12 points on the road to the Suns.

Phoenix is a team I'm going to be on early and often because they are undervalued.  The Suns played poorly in their opener, a 94-113 loss to the Kings, which has only added to their value.  But they took the Thunder to overtime on the road last time out as 7.5-point dogs and covered in a 110-113 loss.  Now they'll be up for this game against the two-time defending Western Conference champs.

The Suns played the Warriors tough in their final two meetings last year, losing by 8 as 16-point home dogs and by 7 as 19-point road dogs.  Plays on home underdogs of 10 or more points (PHOENIX) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 51-23 (68.9%) ATS since 1996.

Plays against any team (GOLDEN STATE) - off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, first six games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Suns Sunday.

15* Jazz/Clippers NBA Sunday No-Brainer on Utah +7.5

The Utah Jazz are showing great value here as 7.5-point road dogs to the Los Angeles Clippers.  They are clearly undervlaued right now after opening the season 0-2 against the spread.

They blew a fourth quarter lead in their opener and lost 104-113 as 5.5-point road dogs to the Blazers.  They also nearly blew a double-digit lead late in a 96-89 home win over the Lakers, failing to cover as 9-point favorites.

Meanwhile, the Clippers are getting a lot of love from oddsmakers now after winning 114-106 at Portland as 2.5-point road favorites.  But the Blazers were playing the second of a back-to-back in that game and were clearly in a tough spot, and the Clippers gave a spirited effort as they wanted revenge from losing to the Blazers in the playoffs last year.

The Jazz are 11-2 ATS in Sunday games over the last two seasons.  The Clippers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on two days' rest.  The Jazz are 23-11-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings, and the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Utah is simply catching too many points here.  Take the Jazz Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -2

I backed the Nuggets with success in their 107-102 win over the New Orleans Pelicans in their opener on Wednesday night.  I'll come back with them here as they are showing great value as only 2-point home favorites over the Portland Trail Blazers, who have beaten the Jazz but lost to the Clippers at home.  Now they'll be on their first road game.

The Nuggets have stockpiled talent and will prove to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  Big men Jusuf Nurkic (7-0) and Nikola Jokic (6-11) played very well together in the preseason and will be starting.  These are two little-known names, which is a big reason why the Nuggets are so undervalued.

But Nurkic is great at drawing fouls and the offense can go through him.  He is strong on the offensive glass and finishing near the basket.  Jokic is a cog in the Nuggets' high-post offense and has the ability to pick and pop.  Both are above-average passers.

Emmanueal Mudiay figures to take a big step forward in his second season.  Gary Harris enters his third season and made the same big leap as a sophomore last year.  Danilo Gallinari did everything for the Nuggets last year before getting injured after the All-Star Break, but now he's healthy.  Kenneth Faried is a high-energy guy that can do all the little things.

The Nuggets controlled the game against the Pelicans in the opener as they led basically the entire way.  What was so impressive about that win was the fact that they committed 24 turnovers compared to 11 for the Pelicans, otherwise it would have been an even bigger blowout.  The Nuggets also had a 69-42 edge in rebounds, and they will outrebound most of their opponents this season because they are so strong inside.  And they have a lot of length at all positions.  Bet the Nuggets Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns +10

I still believe the Phoenix Suns will be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season despite their ugly performance in their opener.  But that 94-113 home loss to Sacramento has only added to their value here against the Oklahoma City Thunder as they are catching double-digits.

The Thunder have no business being double-digit favorites after losing Kevin Durant this offseason.  They barely survived in a 103-97 win over the Philadelphia 76ers in their opener.  Their options are very limited on offense now, and I don't foresee them putting away the Suns by double-digits here.

Phoenix has one of the best guard trios in the NBA in Devin Booker, Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight.  The Suns didn't get off to a good start against the Kings as they trailed 57-38 at half, but their depth really showed as the second unit was able to cut the lead to 10 in the third quarter, though that was as close as they would get.  Veteran starters in Bledsoe, Tyson Chandler and company will look for a big bounce-back performance here.

The Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Phoenix is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a straight up loss.  The Suns are 37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Suns Friday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings +8.5

The Sacramento Kings shot the lights out in the preseason, and it certainly carried over into their regular season opener last night against the Phoenix Suns.  They won 113-94 and shot 51.2% from the field.  Now the fans will come out excited for their home opener Thursday night against the San Antonio Spurs.

Dave Joerger, the former Grizzlies' coach, is working his magic for the Kings this season.  DeMarcus Cousins had 24 points and 13 boards in only 24 minutes last night.  Rudy Gay had 22 points, and newcomers Matt Barnes (14) and Garrett Temple (12) both had solid games as well.  This is clearly a better roster than the Kings are getting credit for.

I love fading the San Antonio Spurs in this spot.  They are coming off a statement win over the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday night in their opener.  They killed the Warriors on the boards, but that won't be the case against the Kings.  And the Spurs certainly won't be up for the Kings like they were against the Warriors.

The Kings will be unveiling their new $557 million, 17,500-seat Golden 1 Center arena in the city's downtown area.  Look for them to play with added incentive tonight to please their home fans, which makes me much less concerned that they are playing the second of a back-to-back here, especially since they didn't need their starters to play big minutes last night against Phoenix.  Roll with the Kings Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -2.5

The Phoenix Suns will be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They suffered a rash of injuries last season that led to a 23-win campaign, but now most of those players gained valuable experience, and now they enter 2016-17 healthy.

Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight both missed significant time last season, but now they are ready to go to start the season.  Their injuries allowed Devin Booker to flourish.  He became the fourth-youngest player to score 1,000 points in a season.  Now he's the starting shooting guard and he's still shy of 20 yards of age, and he finished 5th in the preseason in scoring at 19.6 points per game.

The Suns also added veterans Jared Dudley and Leandro Barbosa this offseason.  P.J. Tucker has been cleared to play and will play a big role off the bench.  T.J. Warren, coming off season-ending foot surgery, will start at forward with Dudley and Tyson Chandler at center.

The Sacramento Kings still have the same cancerous nucleus of DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay.  And Sacramento will start the season without starting point guard Darren Collison, who begins his eight-game suspension due to domestic battery.  That means journeyman Ty Lawson will start at point for the Kings.  Lawson is coming off two poor seasons and two DUI arrests in 2015.  This is simply a team in turmoil right now that we'll look to fade early and often.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Grizzlies UNDER 199.5

Tom Thibodeau was a great hire for the Timberwolves and will work wonders for them as soon as this season.  His influence on the defensive side of the ball has already been apparent in the preseason.

The Timberwolves played seven preaseson games, and only allowed more than 100 points once.  They gave up an average of 94.6 points per game in the preseason, which is a huge improvement after finishing as one of the league's worst defensive teams last season.  Thibodeau's impact is the sole reason for that.

The Memphis Grizzlies are still an offensively-challenged outfit.  They run their offense through Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, who are two solid big men.  But they like to slow it down.  I like the addition of Chandler Parsons to upgrade their shooting, but he's currently injured and unavailable for the opener.

There is a hidden angle here that should also help the UNDER.  The Timberwolves and Grizzlies just faced each other one week ago today.  The Timberwolves won that game 101-94 at home for 195 combined points.  These teams are now familiar with each other after playing a week ago, which certainly favors the defenses.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) - marginal losing team from last season (40% to 49%) playing a team who had a losing record are 126-66 (65.6%) since 1996.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Denver Nuggets +2

The Denver Nuggets are going to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  New head coach Mike Malone steps into a great situation as the Nuggets have stockpiled talent, and now that talent should shine through this season as the Nuggets make a run at the playoffs.

Big men Jusuf Nurkic (7-0) and Nikola Jokic (6-11) played very well together in the preseason and will be starting.  These are two little-known names, which is a big reason why the Nuggets are so undervalued.  But Nurkic is great at drawing fouls and the offense can go through him.  He is strong on the offensive glass and finishing near the basket.  Jokic is a cog in the Nuggets' high-post offense and has the ability to pick and pop.  Both are above-average passers.

Emmanueal Mudiay figures to take a big step forward in his second season.  Gary Harris enters his third season and made the same big leap as a sophomore last year.  Danilo Gallinari did everything for the Nuggets last year before getting injured after the All-Star Break, but now he's healthy.  Kenneth Faried is a high-energy guy that can do all the little things.

New Orleans won just 30 games last year thanks to a boat load of injuries.  Their players missed a combined 351 games, forcing coach Alvin Gentry to use 42 starting lineup combinations.  And unfortunately for Gentry, injuries continue to be a problem starting the season.  The Pelicans went just 1-5 in the preseason.

Anthony Davis suffered an ankle injury on October 12, but returned for the preseason finale on Friday.  He is scheduled to start, but won't be 100%.  Tyreke Evans (knee) won't return until December, forward Quintin Pondexter (knee) is out indefinitely, and starting PG Jrue Holiday is caring for his ill wife Lauren, and there's no timetable for his return.

Now the Pelicans' starting lineup looks awful without those three.  They will be starting Tim Frazier at point guard, E'Twaun Moore at shooting guard, Solomon Hill at small forward, Davis at power forward and Omer Asik at center.  This isn't a lineup that's going to win a lot of games in the early going.  Take the Nuggets Wednesday.

15* 2016 NBA Season Opener on Knicks/Cavs UNDER 206

I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in the season opener between the Cleveland Cavs and New York Knicks.  I don't expect either offense to be hitting on all cylinders in this contest, especially the Knicks.

The Knicks have had a lot of turnover this offseason.  They are relying on Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah, their two biggest signings, to play big minutes.  But those two both missed most of the preseason, Noah with an injury and Rose with legal troubles.  They will be out of sync for sure, especially trying to learn Jeff Hornacek's offense on the fly.

Recent head-to-head history really has me liking the UNDER as well.  The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings with combined scores of 200, 175, 174, 182, 184, 177 and 185 points.  That's an average of 182.4 combined points per game, which is roughly 24 points less than tonight's posted total of 206.

New York is 30-15 to the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 or more points over the last two seasons.  Cleveland is 32-14 to the UNDER against Atlantic Division opponents over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 20-6 in Knicks last 26 games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 7 No-Brainer on Golden State -4.5

Only 10 teams in NBA history have come back from a 3-1 deficit to win a playoff series.  No team has ever come back from a 3-1 deficit to win the NBA Finals.  I expect that to hold up tonight as the Warriors win Game 7 and cap off a historic season.

The Warriors are 50-4 at home this season.  Yes, they lost their last home game to the Cavs, but that was a rarity and everything went Cleveland's way.  The Warriors were without Draymond Green for that game, otherwise this series would probably be over.

The Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.  Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four Sunday games.  The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its last six Sunday games.  The Warriors are 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Golden State is 34-15-2 ATS in its last 51 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  Bet the Warriors Sunday.

20* Warriors/Cavs Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Golden State +2

The Golden State Warriors will close out this series in six games just as they did last year.  They come in highly motivated to get the job done, especially now that they have their leader in Draymond Green back in the lineup.

Everything had to go right for the Cavs to steal Game 5 in Golden State.  It started with the unwarranted suspension of Green, who may be the Warriors' most important player.  Then Andrew Bogut went out with an injury in the 3rd quarter.  Plus, Kyrie Irving and LeBron James became the first duo to top 41 points on the same team in NBA Finals history.

With Green back, the Warriors will not only be better defensively in stopping James and company, they'll also be better offensively.  In fact, the Warriors have outscored the Cavaliers by 50 points when Green has played center in this series.  Golden State will be forced to use their "Death Lineup", which has been the best lineup in the NBA all season, and it will lead them to victory.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a upset loss as a favorite are 72-35 (67.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Golden State is a sensational 14-1 straight up following a loss this season, including playoffs.  It simply does not lose consecutive games.  Bet the Warriors in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 5 No-Brainer on Cleveland +6

The Cleveland Cavaliers are in must-win mode now with their season on the line.  They caught a huge break with the suspension of Draymond Green in Game 5, and I look for them to take advantage and give the Warriors a run for their money.

The Cavaliers have been outscored by 51 points when Green has played center in this series.  That is known as their "Death Lineup", which is the most effective lineup in the NBA.  Without it the Warriors are extremely vulnerable.  They have a deep bench, but nobody can replace what Green brings to this team.

Cleveland is 21-12 ATS versus good teams outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.  The Cavs are 17-8 ATS vs. explosive offensive teams who score 103-plus points per game this year.  Cleveland is 19-9 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 5 Monday.

20* Warriors/Cavs Game 4 No-Brainer on Cleveland -2

The Cleveland Cavaliers proved their naysayers wrong with an emphatic 30-point victory in Game 3.  Now they have the belief that they can beat the Warriors, and they will ride that wave into a Game 4 victory again tonight to even the series.

Home-court advantage has been huge for the Cavaliers all season.  They are now 41-8 at home on the year and a perfect 8-0 at home in the playoffs.  They have won seven of their eight playoff home games by 11 points or more, and they are winning at home in the postseason by an average of over 21 points per game.

The Warriors have certainly been vulnerable on the road in these playoffs, especially here of late.  They are just 2-4 in their last six playoff road games with their two wins only coming by 7 points apiece.  They have actually been outscored by an average of 13.3 points per game in their last six playoff road games.

Cleveland is 9-1 ATS in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.  The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games overall.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 4 Friday.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers represent my favorite bet of the entire postseason in Game 3 of the NBA Finals tonight.  This is a must-win for them if they want to make a series out of it, and they certainly won't be lacking any motivation after the showing they put forth in Oakland.

The media has counted the Cavaliers out and left them for dead.  But they aren't going to go out this way, and you can bet they will be playing with a chip on their shoulders tonight.  They will win the 50/50 balls in this one behind the energy from their home crowd and pick up a win that will get them back in this series.

After all, Cleveland has been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season.  They are 40-8 at home, including a perfect 7-0 in the playoffs.  The Cavaliers have rarely even been tested at home in these playoffs as six of their seven victories have come by 11 points or more with an average margin of victory of 20.9 points per game.

The Warriors haven't exactly played great on the road here of late.  They are 2-3 in their last five road games in these playoffs with their two wins coming by 7 and 7 points.  They have been outscored by an average of 10.0 points per game in their last five road games.

Cleveland is 21-10 ATS in home game revenging a road loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  The Cavaliers are 8-1 ATS in home games versus good teams outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game in the second half of the season this season.  Cleveland is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 3 Wednesday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 2 No-Brainer on Cleveland +6.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers had the Golden State Warriors on the ropes with a lead late in the 3rd quarter.  But the Warriors got an unbelievable 45 points from their bench to pull away, which isn't going to happen again in Game 2.

I've spoke about the zig-zag-theory, which means taking the team that lost the previous game.  While it's only .500 this entire postseason, it is very profitable in Game 2's over time.  Indeed, the loser of Game 1 is 204-159-13 (56.2%) ATS in Game 2 since 1991.

The Cavaliers will make the necessary adjustments in Game 2.  Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined for only 20 points in Game 1, and if they do anything near that again, the Cavaliers will pounce.  J.R. Smith and Channing Frye, two key members of the Cavs, will certainly do more than they did in Game 1.

Plays against home favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%) are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1996.  Golden State is 4-12 ATS in home games in non-conference games this season.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 2 Sunday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 1 No-Brainer on Cleveland +6

The Cleveland Cavaliers have a lot going for them heading into Game 1 of this series tonight.  For starters, they've had three extra days of rest after beating the Raptors in six games.  We've seen them thrive with extra rest in these playoffs.

Indeed, the Cavaliers made easy work of the Hawks in a 104-93 home victory as 8-point favorites in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals.  After sweeping the Hawks, they crushed Toronto 115-84 at home in Game 1 as 11-point favorites last series.

There's no question that the Cavaliers are the more motivated team heading into this series, too.  This is a rematch from last year's NBA Finals.  The Cavs took the Warriors to six games even without Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love.  Now they have both healthy, want revenge, and are hitting on all cylinders right now as they've been the most impressive team in these playoffs.

Cleveland is 12-2 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 7 days over the last three seasons.  The Cavaliers are 11-3 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season.  Golden State is 3-12 ATS in non-conference home games this season.  This is actually a hangover spot for the Warriors after fighting back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Thunder last series.  I look for them to come out flat compared to the Cavs in Game 1.  Bet the Cavaliers Thursday.

20* Thunder/Warriors Game 7 No-Brainer on Golden State -7

The Golden State Warriors have all the momentum right now.  After coming back from a 3-1 deficit in this series, they have forced a Game 7 by winning the last two games, including Game 6 on the road by 7.  I like them to win by double-digits now in Game 7 so we'll back them laying 7 points here.

The Warriors have made some nice adjustments these last two games by going bigger.  They have only been outrebounded by a combined 2 boards these last two games.  Playing the Thunder pretty much even on the glass has been the difference, and I expect them to continue to battle on the boards with everything on the line in Game 7.

The Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Golden State is 31-15 ATS in its last 46 Monday games.  The Warriors are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  The Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last seven visits to Golden State.  Bet the Warriors in Game 7 Monday.

20* Warriors/Thunder Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Golden State +2.5

The Golden State Warriors showed their championship resolve by winning Game 5 120-111 over the Thunder.  Now they are ready to take the show on the road and finally play up to their potential after a disastrous two games in Oklahoma City earlier this series.

You can ask any NBA player and they'll tell you that a close-out game is the hardest.  That's especially the case for the Thunder, who haven't been to the NBA Finals in a while.  It's also tough to close out the defending champions, especially one with the mental fortitude of the Warriors.

There were some adjustments in Game 5 that I really liked from the Warriors.  They played Andrew Bogut big minutes to counter the big lineup of the Thunder, and it worked.  Bogut had 15 points and 14 rebounds in nearly 30 minutes of action.  He was a big reason the Warriors actually outrebounded the Thunder 54-50 for the game.

Golden State is 13-4 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the past two seasons.  The Warriors are 60-43 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  OKC is 11-20 ATS versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game this season.  Bet the Warriors in Game 6 Saturday.

15* Cavs/Raptors Game 6 No-Brainer on Cleveland -6

I realize that the home team has dominated this series all season long.  In fact, the home team is 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in all meetings between the Cavs and Raptors this season.  I've even been on the home team in four of the first five games in this series.

But I'm reversing course in Game 6.  The Cavaliers will really buckle down heading into Game 6 to try and get a signature road win and beat the West to the NBA Finals, which will give them the advantage in rest going in.  Lebron James and company will make a big point of finishing this series out on the road and not going back home for a Game 7.  It will be the emphasis today.

After all, that 116-78 beat down the Cavs put on the Raptors in Game 5 had to be extremely deflating for Toronto players.  Even though they've won two games this series, they know they stand no chance of winning it if they have to go back to Cleveland.  The season has already been a success for the Raptors, while anything short of a championship would be a disappointment for Cleveland.  That's why I like the mindset of the Cavs a lot more coming in to Game 6.

Plays against home underdogs (TORONTO) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 83-46 (64.3%) ATS since 1996.  Toronto is 0-8 ATS after scoring 85 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 1-10 ATS after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last two years.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 6 Friday.

20* Thunder/Warriors Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Golden State -7.5

The Golden State Warriors must go 3-0 the rest of this series if they want to have a chance at winning back-to-back titles and end their amazing season the right way.  I like their chances of a big performance in Game 5 tonight considering it's at home.

After all, the Warriors are 46-3 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 14.4 points per game.  They throttled the Thunder in Game 2 118-91 and a similar result can be expected tonight.  That was their best game of the series, and they will get back to moving the basketball and being more aggressive on 50/50 balls at home tonight, especially on the boards with everything at stake.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this rivalry as the home team is 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Golden State is 27-11-1 ATS in its last 39 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Warriors are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.

Plays on any team (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 42-17 (71.2%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on home teams (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 72-35 (67.3%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Warriors in Game 5 Thursday.

20* Raptors/Cavs Game 5 No-Brainer on Cleveland -10.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers certainly did not want to lose both games in Toronto to have this series evened up at 2-2.  However, it will only have them more motivated than ever to make a statement in Game 5 at home and regain control of this series.

After all, home-court advantage has been enormous when these teams have gotten together recently.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  And the games in Cleveland haven't even been close.

Cleveland is 3-0 at home against Toronto this season.  It won by 22 points in the regular season, by 31 in Game 1, and by 19 in Game 2.  That's an average margin of victory of 24.0 points per game.  That's why I'm not concerned at all about laying 10.5 points with the Cavs in Game 5 here tonight.

Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 70% this season.  The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 5 Wednesday.

25* Western Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Golden State -1.5

The Golden State Warriors are in must-win mode tonight to avoid falling behind 3-1 in this series to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Look for them to come through just as they have all season in these spots with tremendous resiliency.

In fact, the Warriors haven't lost back-to-back games all season.  They are 12-0 straight up in games following a loss this year.  Their 28-point blowout loss to the Thunder in Game 3 certainly is not sitting well with them, and I fully expect them to go out and do something about it tonight in Oklahoma City.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a road loss are 63-26 (70.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home underdogs (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS since 1996.

Golden State is 10-2 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent this season.  The Warriors are 21-7 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last two years.  Golden State is 35-16 ATS in its last 51 games following a loss.  The Warriors are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games following a ATS loss.  Bet the Warriors in Game 4 Tuesday.