20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame +6.5

This is a terrible spot for Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons are in a massive letdown spot off their 83-79 'upset' home win over a Top 10 Duke Blue Devils team that led to a court storming.  It followed up their blowout home win over Pitt.  The Demon Deacons won't be nearly as motivated to beat lowly Notre Dame tonight.

Wake Forest has been vulnerable on the road this season going 3-9 SU & 4-8 ATS in 12 games played away from home.  Notre Dame is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall and improving as the season goes on under first-year head coach Micah Shrewsberry.  They beat Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech at home, upset Louisville by 22 on the road and only lost by 3 as 7.5-point dogs at Syracuse.

The home team is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings between Notre Dame and Wake Forest.  The Fighting Irish are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing 85 points or more.  This is a dangerous, sleepy spot for the Demon Deacons.  Bet Notre Dame Tuesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Hornets/Bucks UNDER 221.5

Both the Hornets and Bucks are dead nuts UNDER teams right now.  The Hornets have allowed an average of 98.5 points per game in their last six games, which is unheard of in today's NBA.  Doc Rivers has delivered his promise to play better defense in a big way since taking over as the Bucks interim head coach.

The Bucks are 10-1-1 UNDER in their last 12 games overall.  They have gone for 223 or fewer combined points with their opponents in six consecutive games, including 220 or fewer in five of them.  Charlotte is 5-0 UNDER in its last five games overall with 222 or fewer combined points in seven consecutive games.

The Hornets and Bucks played earlier this month and combined for just 204 points.  It will be more of the same in the rematch with how these teams are playing currently.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +14.5

The Charlotte Hornets are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only non-cover came on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road to the Warriors by 13 as 12.5-point dogs.  The Warriors got a layup in the final seconds to cover when they could have ran out the shot clock.

The point is the Hornets are a team that keeps fighting.  They have won all five of those games outright as underdogs beating Memphis 115-106 as 5-point dogs, Indiana 111-102 as 10-point dogs, Atlanta 122-109 as 7-point dogs, Utah 115-107 as 10-point dogs and Portland 93-80 as 3.5-point dogs.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks.  They are coming off two consecutive huge road wins over the Timberwolves and 76ers.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Hornets, who they just blew out at home in early February.  But this is a different Hornets team now, and they will be the more motivated team for revenge.  Getting 14.5 points here is too much.

Charlotte is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 road games after allowing 105 points or fewer last game.  The Hornets are playing elite defense right now holding their last six opponents to an average of 98.5 points per game, which is unheard of in today's NBA.  Bet the Hornets Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

I love the spot for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.  They are coming off two consecutive upset home losses to the Heat and Bulls.  But they have played their best basketball on the road this season, and they will be happy to get to play at Madison Square Garden tonight.

The Pelicans are 15-4 SU & 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games.  They have a big rest advantage tonight after having yesterday off.  Meanwhile, the Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after needing a basket in the final seconds to beat the Pistons 113-111 as 11.5-point home favorites on Monday.

The Knicks have been struggling lately due to all the injuries that have mounted up.  The Knicks are 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are without three of their best players in Randle, Anunoby and Robinson.  Josh Hart played 42 minutes, Jalen Brunson 40 and Dante ViVincenzo 32 last night.  The Knicks won't have much left in the tank for the Pelicans tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Knicks UNDER 218.5

Two of the best defensive teams in the NBA square off tonight when the New Orleans Pelicans visit the New York Knicks.  The Pelicans rank 6th in defensive rating this season while the Knicks rank 9th.  The Knicks rank dead last (30th) in pace this season, and will control the tempo playing at home.

The Knicks and their opponents have combined for 118 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall.  They are struggling offensively right now scoring 113 points or fewer in nine of their last 10 games overall.  They are struggling because they are short-handed without Julius Randle and OG Anunoby right now.

The Pelicans also have injury concerns of their own with both Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum questionable, plus Jose Alvarado out due to suspension.  The UNDER is 8-4 in Pelicans last 12 games overall.  The Pelicans beat the Knicks 96-87 in their first meeting this season that saw just 183 combined points.  It should be more of the same in the rematch.

New York is 8-0 UNDER in its last eight home games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 3-plus points pre game in the 2nd half of the season.  The Knicks are 8-1 UNDER in  home games when revenging a road loss this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks PK

It's addition by subtraction for the Atlanta Hawks.  They have actually been better without Trae Young than with him this season.  They proved it again last time out with a 109-92 home win over the Orlando Magic last time out.  They are certainly much better defensively without Young, and Dejounte Murray plays better when he is running the offense rather than playing off the ball.

The Utah Jazz are a mess right now going 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone win coming at home over the lowly San Antonio Spurs.  They lost by 8 as 10-point favorites to the Hornets, by 3 to the Warriors who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, by 16 at home to the Lakers, by 22 at home to the Warriors and by 14 at Phoenix.  They are all but eliminated from playoff contention because they would have to chase down the Warriors or Lakers for the final two play-in spots, which they know isn't happening.

The Jazz are 9-20 SU & 13-16 ATS on the road this season where they are getting outscored by 10.0 points pre game.  Atlanta is trying to fend off two teams for the final play-in spot in the East.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Loyola-Chicago +3.5

Loyola-Chicago sits at 20-7 this season and 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in Atlantic 10 play and tied for first place in the conference with a lot to play for the rest of the way.  There's a shot they could earn an at-large berth into the NCAA Tournament with a big finish.

The Ramblers are 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their lone loss coming on the road by 7 at VCU.  The spot really favors them because they are rested and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game 9 days and coming off an 80-59 home win over George Mason that took very little out of them.

St. Bonaventure will be playing in its 3rd different city in 7 days after a 13-point road loss at La Salle on Wednesday followed up an upset road win at UMass on Saturday that is giving the Bonnies more respect than they deserve tonight.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Loyola-Chicago Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -4

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Wisconsin Badgers after going 2-5 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They went through a gauntlet during that stretch with little rest and some very tough opponents.

But the Badgers finally got the rest they needed as they have had the last six days off.  Now they get to face arguably the worst team in the Big Ten in the Indiana Hoosiers, who are 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The last four games have been very concerning losing by 20 at Purdue, by 4 at home to Northwestern, by 15 at home to Nebraska and by 9 at Penn State.

The Hoosiers are dangerously close to quitting on head coach Mike Woodson, and they are a banged up team that just isn't very deep.  This is a tough spot for the Hoosiers playing their 4th game in 10 days to really test that fatigue.

Wisconsin is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 road games after losing five or six of its last seven games.  Bet Wisconsin Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh +7.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and could use a big road win over Clemson tonight.  The Panthers are on the bubble despite going 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with some tremendous road wins during this stretch.  They upset Duke, NC State and Virginia on the road.

Now the Panthers have their sights set on revenge from a 79-70 home loss to Clemson as 1.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  I think it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Tigers after going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, including two blowout wins at Georgia Tech and at home against Florida State, which are two of the worst teams in the conference.  They lost outright to NC State at home the game prior as similar 8-point favorites.

Clemson is just 2-6 ATS in ACC home games this season.  The Tigers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games after making 78% of their free throws or better last game.  Pitt is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when revenging a home loss.  The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet Pittsburgh Tuesday.

15* Baylor/TCU ESPN ANNIHILATOR on TCU -2

TCU is playing as well as anyone in the Big 12 right now.  The Horned Frogs are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming by a single point as 5.5-point road dogs at Texas Tech.  They crushed West Virginia by 16 and Cincinnati by 18 at home and upset Kansas State on the road as well.

Now the Horned Frogs get to stay at home following that 18-point win over Cincinnati on Saturday.  They will still be fresh and ready to go tonight.  The same cannot be said for Baylor, which is in one of the worst spots of the season.

Baylor is coming off an 82-76 (OT) home loss to Houston.  The Bears had a chance to win it with a FT with 4 seconds left in regulation and missed.  I don't know how they are going to be able to get back up off the mat after that defeat, which followed up two road games at West Virginia and at BYU with a lot of travel involved.  The Bears will now be playing in their 4th different city in 10 days.  And they must face a TCU team that likes to push the tempo and will test their tired legs and minds.

TCU beat Baylor 105-102 (3 OT) on the road in their first meeting this season.  Baylor is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games when revenging a loss as a favorite.  The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after five straight games forcing 14 or fewer turnovers.  TCU is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after four straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers.  Bet TCU Monday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Baylor/TCU OVER 147.5

TCU is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 66th in adjusted tempo and 26th in adjusted offense.  The Horned Frogs are always looking to get out rand run and get easy buckets in transition.  They face a Baylor team that is elite on the offensive end ranking 5th in adjusted offense but one that among the worst in the Big 12 defensively.

TCU is scoring 83.0 points per game at home this season while Baylor is scoring 82.3 points per game overall.  These teams met on January 27th at Baylor with a 105-102 (3 OT) win for TCU being the result.  That game was tied 76-76 at the end of regulation for 152 combined points, so it still went OVER the 148.5-point total in regulation.  And now we are getting an even better number of 147.5 for the rematch.

Baylor is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games off two consecutive games with five or fewer steals.  The Bears are 8-1 OVER in their last nine road games vs. teams who average 9 or more steals per game.  TCU Is 7-1 OVER vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season.  The Horned Frogs are 8-2 OVER vs. good offensive teams averaging 77 or more points per game this season.  This one has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies +2.5

Finding teams like the Memphis Grizzlies who are out of playoff contention but continue to show up and fight every night is one key to winning in the NBA late in the season.  The Grizzlies are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games taking both New Orleans and the Clippers to the wire in two losses, while also upsetting both Houston and Milwaukee.

Finding teams like the Brooklyn Nets who seem to care less about winning games and fading them is also one key to winning in the NBA late in the season.  The Nets are 8-25 SU & 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall.  Their last three games were very concerning.  They lost by 50 at Boston, by 28 at Toronto and by 15 at Minnesota.  They aren't even trying right now, and they should not be favored over the Grizzlies, who at least get after it defensively ranking 10th in the NBA in defensive rating.

Memphis is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games off three or more consecutive home games.  Brooklyn is 1-10 ATS in road games after losing six or seven of its last eight games this season.  The Nets are 2-14 ATS in road games vs. teams who shoot 24 or fewer free throws per game.  The Grizzlies are 11-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. teams that shoot 21 or fewer free throws per game in the 2nd half of the season.  Bet the Grizzlies Monday.

15* Kings/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 239

The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Kings are 7-1-1 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 238 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.  The OVER is 3-1 in their last four meetings with the Clippers with 248, 255 and 351 combined points in the three OVERS.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +3.5

The Charlotte Hornets are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only non-cover came on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road to the Warriors by 13 as 12.5-point dogs.  The Warriors got a layup in the final seconds to cover when they could have ran out the shot clock.

The point is the Hornets are a team that keeps fighting.  They have won all four of those games outright as underdogs beating Memphis 115-106 as 5-point dogs, Indiana 111-102 as 10-point dogs, Atlanta 122-109 as 7-point dogs and Utah 115-107 as 10-point dogs.

Now the Hornets take on a hapless Portland Trail Blazers that has no business being favored over them in their current state.  The Blazers are 0-7 SU in their last seven games overall losing all seven games by 6 points or more, and six by 9 points or more.  They are without Malcolm Brogdon, Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe right now and struggling to score without these guys.  They have scored 112 or fewer points in six of their last seven games with the lone exception being 122 against the Pistons in OT.

Portland is 1-9 ATS in home games when playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days this season.  Charlotte is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 road games after allowing 105 points or less.  The Hornets are only allowing 102.2 points per game in their last five games and are getting after it defensively.  Bet the Hornets Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Jazz OVER 241

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 10th in pace and 25th in defensive rating.  The Jazz have allowed at least 129 points in four of their last five games overall.  They face another dead nuts OVER team tonight in the San Antonio Spurs, who rank 4th in pace and 24th in defensive rating.

The Jazz and Spurs met once earlier this season with the Jazz winning 130-118 for 248 combined points.  They also combined for 245 points in their final meeting last season.  This total of 241 is too short for this game tonight.

Plays on the OVER on home teams where the total is 200 or higher (Utah) - after getting beating by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games, a marginal losing team (40-49%) playing a losing team are 26-8 (76.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Golden State Warriors +1

The Golden State Warriors are motivated to make the playoffs.  They are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They have gone 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming to the Clippers.  The Clippers rallied from a double-digit deficit in the 4th quarter after Tyron Lue was ejected and they couldn't miss from 3 down the stretch.

The Warriors also want some revenge on the defending champion Denver Nuggets.  They are 0-3 SU against the Nuggets this season losing by 3, 3 and 6 points.  They have been close, but they haven't been able to get over the hump.  Now I fully expect them to get over the hump and avoid the season sweep.

The Nuggets have two starters questionable to play in this one in Jamaal Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.  This isn't a very deep team as it is, so missing one or both would be big.  But I like the Warriors to get the job done either way.

Golden State is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 home games off two consecutive covers as a favorite.  Plays against favorites (Denver) - after scoring 120 points or more against an opponent that is coming off a game with a combined score of 185 points or less are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Warriors Sunday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota +7

Minnesota is the most underrated team in the country.  The Gophers have gone 17-9 SU & 23-3 ATS and are still on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They could use a big road win over Nebraska, and at the very least I expect them to stay within 7 points.

You're paying a tax to back the Huskers at home now since they are perfect both SU and ATS at home in Big Ten play this season.  But Minnesota has been no pushover on the road.  They have gone 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall including 4-0 ATS in their last four Big Ten road games not once losing by more than 10 points.  

They only lost by as as 16.5-point road dogs at Purdue, upset Penn State and nearly upset Iowa.  The Gophers will give the Huskers a run for their money in a game that should come down to the final possession.  Bet Minnesota Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Wizards OVER 232.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 28th in defensive rating.  They have allowed 147, 130 and 133 points in their last three games overall coming into this one.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have played their first two games out of the break without MVP candidate Donovan Mitchell due to illness.  But they get back Mitchell tonight and should hang a big number on the Wizards.  They have scored 114 points or more in six of their previous seven games with Mitchell in the lineup.  He has scored 27 or more points in six of his last seven games as well.

Washington is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games off four or more consecutive road games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Creighton/St. John's CBS No-Brainer on St. John's +2.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the St. John's Red Storm.  They have gone just 3-8 SU in their last 11 games overall and have failed to cover the spread in four consecutive games.  Head coach Rick Pitino called out his team and it was a bad look, which is giving us the opportunity to 'buy low'.

But the Red Storm responded well to Pitino last game jumping out to a huge lead against Georgetown and coasting home for the victory.  Now the Red Storm want revenge from a 66-65 loss at Creighton as 6-point dogs on January 13th.  Now they are 2.5-point home dogs in the rematch, and the books haven't adjusted enough for flipping home courts as St. John's should be favored.

While the Red Storm need this game like blood and will be max motivated, this is a massive letdown spot for Creighton.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season where everything went right for them in knocking of No. 1 UConn at home.  They are also 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, so we are 'selling high' on the Bluejays here.

St. John's is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after failing to cover the spread in eight or more of its last 10 games.  Rick Pitino is a perfect 9-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in eight or more of his last 10 games as a head coach having never lost in this situation.  Bet St. John's Sunday.

20* Celtics/Knicks ABC No-Brainer on New York +6.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the New York Knicks and 'sell high' on the Boston Celtics.  The Knicks went into the All-Star Break going 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their final six games.  But their struggles were largely due to injuries to Brunson, DiVincenzo and Hartenstein.  All three came back from the break healthy.

I successfully backed the Knicks on the ML as underdogs in a 110-96 win at Philadelphia in their first game back from the break.  And now I'm back on them as 6.5-point home dogs to the Celtics as they still look undervalued in the market place.

Boston is the consensus best team in the NBA.  But with that consensus comes expectations that are hard to live up to.  You're paying a tax on the Celtics right now due to having the best record in the NBA and being on a 7-game winning streak.  But Boston is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games overall, and if they manage to win this game, it will go down to the wire against the feisty Knicks.

New York is 12-2 ATS in home games with a total of 220 to 229.5 this season.  Boston is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 games off two consecutive covers as favorites.  The Knicks are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season.  Bet the Knicks Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall -3

Seton Hall is making its move to make the NCAA Tournament.  The Pirates have gotten healthy and have gone 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming on the road at Villanova.  They beat Xavier by 18 at home two games ago and upset St. John's 68-62 on the road last time out.

The Pirates have had the last five days off to rest and get ready for this game against reeling Butler.  The Bulldogs are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall including a pair of blowout losses in their last two, losing by 22 at home to Creighton and by 10 at Villanova.  The Bulldogs are coming back down to reality as this team just isn't that talented and doesn't play much defense, allowing 71 or more points in seven consecutive games.

Seton Hall beat Butler 78-72 on the road in their first meeting this season to improve to 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with all five wins by 6 points or more.  Butler even shot 39.1% from 3 and 15-of-16 (93.7%) from the FT line in that first meeting and still lost by 6.  It's going to be hard to see them improving on the road in the rematch.

Butler is 1-7 ATS off a conference loss this season.  Shaheen Holloway is 7-0 ATS vs. up-tempo teams that attempt 62 or more shots per game after 15-plus game as a head coach.  Holloway is 9-1 ATS in home games off an upset win as a road underdog as a head coach.  Bet Seton Hall Saturday.

20* Villanova/UConn FOX No-Brainer on Villanova +12.5

The Villanova Wildcats are playing their way back into NCAA Tournament contention by playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 points at Xavier.  All four wins have come by double-digits by 10 over Butler, by 26 over Seton Hall, by 16 over Georgetown and by 18 over Providence.  The Wildcats haven't lost any of their last seven games by more than 7 points.

Now the Wildcats want revenge from a 66-65 home loss to UConn as 3.5-point dogs.  They are catching 12.5 points on the road in the rematch, which is too much.  Everyone is expecting UConn to bounce back from its 85-66 loss at Creighton, but I'm not buying it.  Villanova needs this game more and will be the more motivated team.

Villanova hasn't lost any of its last 18 meetings with UConn by more than 12 points, making for an 18-0 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to this 12.5-point spread.  Bet Villanova Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Illinois State +12.5

Illinois State has quietly gone 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall not once losing by more than 13 points.  The last four games have been very impressive going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS with the lone loss at Southern Illinois by 3 as 8-point dogs.

In their very next game the Redbirds pulled off the upset of the season in the MVC beating Indiana State 80-67 as 17.5-point road dogs.  They could have easily let down after that, but instead they have gone on to beat Evansville by 7 as 3.5-point home favorites and Northern Iowa by 81-73 as 1.5-point home dogs to prove it was no fluke.

Now the Redbirds want revenge from that 13-point loss to Bradley at home in their first meeting.  Bradley shot 58.8% in that game which is unsustainable.  Home-court advantage has meant little in this series as the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Illinois State is 3-0 ATS in its last three trips to Bradley not once losing by more than 8 points.

The Redbirds are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 80 points or more in two consecutive games.  Bet Illinois State Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on UNLV -1

UNLV is making its push to make the NCAA Tournament playing its best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  The Rebels are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming after they blew a double-digit lead late to rival Nevada and lost by 3.  Their wins have been mighty impressive including an 80-77 upset win at New Mexico as a 12-point dog.  They bounced back from that loss to Nevada with a 29-point win at Air Force last time out.

Now the Rebels have their sights set on revenge from a 78-75 loss at Colorado State as 7-point dogs.  The Rams are 1-6 SU in Mountain West road games with thier lone win coming at Fresno State.  They lost by 16 at San Diego State, by 13 at Nevada, by 7 at Boise State and by 5 at Utah State.  UNLV is in the same class as those teams and will handle their business at home.

UNLV is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game in the 2nd half of the season.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Georgetown -4.5

DePaul is 0-15 SU & 5-10 ATS in Big East play this season and just ready for this dreadful season to be over.  They have an interim coach and haven't been any more competitive since firing their head man.  They have gone 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and were fortunate to cover as 20-point dogs to Providence in a game they trail by 23 in the final minutes.

Georgetown continues to play hard for first-year head coach Ed Cooley.  Despite going 0-11 SU in their last 11 games overall, the Hoyas have gone 6-5 ATS with five losses by single-digits.  They are about to get rewarded for their efforts with a blowout victory over the hapless Blue Demons tonight.

Georgetown is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.  DePaul is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after a combined score of 155 points or more.  Bet Georgetown Saturday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Belmont -5

The Belmont Bruins have gotten healthy and are playing their best basketball of the season right now as a result.  They have gone 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with two losses to the two best teams in the conference in Indiana State and Drake, plus a 7-point loss at Missouri State.

Now the Bruins get their shot at revenge on the Bears at home this time around.  They have gone 10-2 SU at home this season.  The Bears have gone the other direction since that win, going 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone win against the worst team in the conference in Valpairaiso by 8 as 13-point home favorites.  They are coming off a 26-point home loss to Bradley and lost by 10 at Murray State in their last road game.

Missouri State is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games off a loss by 10 points or more.  I question the Bears' motivation the rest of the way.  The Bruins will want this one more.  Bet Belmont Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Loyola-Chicago -3

Loyola-Chicago sits at 19-7 this season and 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in Atlantic 10 play and tied for first place in the conference with a lot to play for the rest of the way.  There's a shot they could earn an at-large berth into the NCAA Tournament with a big finish.

The Ramblers are 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their lone loss coming on the road by 7 at VCU.  The spot really favors them because they have five days in between games to rest and prepare for George Mason.

The spot is a bad one for the Patriots who are coming off their biggest win of the season, beating ranked Dayton 71-67 at home on Wednesday.  Now they only have two days off in between games and are in a massive letdown spot off the Dayton win.

Loyola-Chicago beat George Mason 85-79 on the road in the first meeting despite the Patriots shooting 59.5% as a team and 9-of-17 (52.9%) from 3-point range while making 26 free throws.  They aren't going to shoot that well again on the road in the rematch.  Bet Loyola-Chicago Saturday.

15* Alabama/Kentucky CBS ANNIHILATOR on OVER 175

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 14th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  They have scored 81 or more points in seven consecutive games, including 98 or more in five of those seven.  Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well.

Now the Crimson Tide face another dead nuts OVER team in Kentucky.  The Wildcats rank 18th in adjusted tempo and 9th in adjusted offense.  The Wildcats score 87.6 points per game overall and 91.6 points per game at home.  They are also a shaky defensive team like Alabama.

Kentucky is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games off a road loss.  The Wildcats are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK.  Alabama is 11-1 OVER in Saturday games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma/Oklahoma State UNDER 141

I backed the UNDER with success in the first meeting between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State this season.  I'm back on the UNDER again for many of the same reasons.  This rivalry is always low scoring in a matchup of two dead nuts UNDER teams.

The Cowboys and Sooners have combined for 132 or fewer points in six consecutive meetings.  They have averaged 120.2 combined points per game at the end of regulation in those six games, so we have over 20 points to spare here with this 141-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Kentucky -1

I love the spot for the Kentucky Wildcats today.  They were humbled with a 75-74 loss at LSU at the buzzer which followed up their 70-59 road win over Auburn handing the Tigers their first home loss of the season.  That was a clear sandwich spot for Kentucky with this game against Alabama on deck.

Now we will get Kentucky's best effort today, and it will be good enough to beat Alabama.  The Crimson Tide are riding high right now winning seven of their last eight.  But they needed OT to beat Florida as 10-point home favorites last time out, and that effort will have taken a lot out of them.

Alabama will be without Mohamed Wague (4.0 PPG) due to suspension and could be without Latrell Whitesell Jr. (9.0 PPG, 44.5% 3-pointers), who missed last game with a concussion.  Conversely, there's a good chance Kentucky gets back Tre Mitchell (12.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3.1 APG) after missing the last two games with a shoulder injury.  They beat Auburn without him, however.

Nate Oats is 4-15 ATS off a home win where they didn't cover as a favorite as the coach of Alabama.  Oats is 1-9 ATS after three straight games where both teams scored 75 points or more as the coach of the Crimson Tide.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on East Tennessee State +13

Samford (24-4) is just one win away from clinching the Southern Conference regular season title with three games remaining.  They have a home game against The Citadel to close out the season and will be a massive favorite.  I expect the Bulldogs to be going through the motions until the conference tournament.

We've seen that already with an 88-84 loss at 10-point favorites at Mercer two games ago followed by a comeback 74-72 home win over Furman as 7-point favorites last time out.  I think this is a letdown spot over that massive win over Furman.

East Tennessee State only lost 75-72 as 6-point home dogs to Samford in their first meeting this season despite shooting just 37.8% from the floor while the Bulldogs shot 52.8%.  They are due some positive shooting regression, and they should not be catching 13 points in the rematch.

East Tennessee State hasn't lost any of its last 19 meetings with Samford by more than 11 points.  That makes for a 19-0 system backing the Buccaneers pertaining to this 13-point spread.  Bet East Tennessee State Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on UMass -3.5

Frank Martin is working wonders in his first season at UMass.  He has the Minutemen sitting at 17-9 this season and 8-6 in conference play.  The Minutemen are 12-2 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this season and coming off an impressive 74-52 win over VCU as 2-point home favorites.  They should be laying more than 3.5 points at home to St. Bonaventure today.

The Bonnies are 16-10 this season and 7-7 in conference play.  They are coming off a bad 72-59 road loss to LaSalle as 5.5-point favorites to fall to 1-6 SU in their last seven Atlantic 10 road games with their lone win coming at lowly Fordham.  All six losses came by 4 points or more.  Bet UMass Saturday.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet UMass Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Wake Forest -1

I love the spot for Wake Forest Saturday.  They get a chance at quick revenge after giving Duke a run for its money in a 77-69 road loss as 7-point dogs on February 12th.  Now they get to host the Blue Devils in the rematch here two weeks later, and home-court advantage will make all the difference.

Wake Forest is 14-0 SU & 11-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 20.1 points per game.  The Demon Deacons are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in ACC home games this season outscoring opponents by 20 points per game.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.

Duke is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 75 points or more in four consecutive games.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Western Carolina/VMI OVER 151.5

VMI is a dead nuts OVER team and this is a very low total for a game involving the Keydets.  They rank 2nd in adjusted tempo and 279th in adjusted defense.  They are allowing 81.7 points per game this season, including 90.2 points per game in conference play.

Western Carolina can name its number just as it did in the first meeting this season.  The Catamounts beat the Keydets 102-77 for 179 combined points on January 27th.  We have 27.5 points to spare here with this 151.5-point total in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +13

One key to winning in the NBA is finding undervalued teams out of the playoff hunt that continue to play hard every night.  One of those teams is the Charlotte Hornets.  The Hornets have quietly gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  

That includes 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with outright upset victories over Memphis by 9 as 5-point dogs, over Indiana by 9 as 10-point dogs, by 23 over Atlanta as 7-point dogs and by 8 over Utah as 10-point dogs.  This is a young team that has not quit, and the players they traded for are making an immediate impact and playing with a chip on their shoulder.

Golden State is overvalued off a 128-110 home win over the Los Angeles Lakers last night.  They wanted revenge on the Lakers after losing 145-144 (OT) at home to them in their previous meeting and they got it.  But keep in mind it was without LeBron James.  Plus, this is now a huge sandwich spot for them with defending champion Denver on deck at home on Sunday that they could be looking ahead to.  I don't think we get a max effort from the Warriors, which is going to make it very difficult for them to cover this inflated 13-point spread.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Thunder OVER 241.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 6-0-1 OVER in their last seven games overall.  They are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 10th in pace and 4th in offensive rating.  Now they face another dead nuts OVER team in the Washington Wizards, who rank 1st in pace and 27th in defensive rating.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Wizards and Thunder with 237 or more combined points in all four.  That includes a 136-128 win by the Thunder in their first meeting this season for 264 combined points.  It should be more of the same in the rematch tonight.

The Thunder are 21-6 OVER in their last 27 games off a home win by 10 points or more.  Washington is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 6-plus points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies +9.5

One key to winning in the NBA is finding undervalued teams out of the playoff hunt that continue to play hard every night.  One of those teams is the Memphis Grizzlies.  They went into the All-Star Break covering three straight including outright upsets over Houston 121-113 as 3-point home dogs and Milwaukee 113-110 as 12-point home dogs the very next night on the 2nd of a back-to-back.

Everyone is talking about the Los Angeles Clippers winning the NBA title right now.  As a result, the Clippers are overvalued.  They are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 107-129 loss in Oklahoma City last night.  Asking them to win by double-digits on the road to beat us here is asking too much.

The Clippers are 6-19 ATS in their last 25 games off a road loss by 10 points or more.  Los Angeles is 9-18 ATS after playing a road game this season.  The Grizzlies are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games when playing with double revenge.  Bet the Grizzlies Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5

I love the spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They are coming off an upset home loss to the Orlando Magic last night, who have been the best covering team in the NBA and are grossly undervalued.  But the Cavaliers also didn't have their best player in Donovan Mitchell due to illness in that loss.

My best guess is Mitchell returns tonight, but I like the Cavaliers either way.  I'll gladly fade the 76ers again like I did with the Knicks easily cashing on the Knicks ML +100 in a 110-96 victory over the 76ers in a game that wasn't even that close.

The Philadelphia 76ers remain without Joel Embiid and the difference between being with or without him has been drastic for this team.  The 76ers are 26-8 with Embiid in the lineup but just 6-15 without him.  They should not be getting this much respect tonight without him.

Cleveland is 12-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Cavaliers are 17-3 SU & 12-8 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  Philadelphia is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. good passing teams that average 23 or more assists per game.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cornell -1.5

I love the spot for Cornell tonight.  The Big Red will be out for revenge from an 80-78 road loss at Yale on February 10th just two weeks ago.  They blew an 8-point halftime lead in that game and a 7-point lead late.  Now they get the Bulldogs at home this time around.

Cornell is 9-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 17.7 points per game.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  Matt Knowling (11.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG) had 12 points and 9 rebounds in that first meeting for Yale.  Knowling has been out with a groin injury since and is questionable to play tonight.

Cornell is 6-0 ATS in its last six Friday night home games.  The Big Red are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games against teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Cornell is 6-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Big Red tonight.  Bet Cornell Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +15.5

The Washington Wizards have been a great bet on the road this season.  They have gone 19-8-1 ATS in their 28 road games as one of the best covering teams on the highway in the NBA this season.  They are consistently catching too many points away from home, and that's the case again tonight as 15.5-point dogs at Denver.

The Nuggets have been kind of bored just waiting for the playoffs to get here.  The defending champs are having that dreaded title hangover.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 29 at Sacramento, by 17 at Milwaukee and by 4 at home to Sacramento in the rematch in a game you would have expected them to fire back in.  The Nuggets are now just 8-16-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall.

Washington is 7-0 ATS in non-conference road games this season.  The Wizards are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 road games off a non-conference game.  Washington is 7-0 ATS in road games off five or more consecutive losses this season.  Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. poor teams that are outscoring by 3-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season.  Bet the Wizards Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +10

The Charlotte Hornets quietly went 5-1 ATS in their final six games going into the All-Star Break.  That includes 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their final three games with outright upset victories over Memphis by 9 as 5-point dogs, over Indiana by 9 as 10-point dogs and by 23 over Atlanta as 7-point dogs.  This is a young team that has not quit, and the players they traded for are making an immediate impact.

The Utah Jazz went 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their final four games going into the break to all but play themselves out of playoff contention.  Three of the four losses came by 14 points or more.  I question their motivation the rest of the way, and they are so poor defensively that they cannot be laying double-digits to Charlotte tonight.  They have allowed 129 or more points in four consecutive games.

Charlotte is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 105 points or less.  Utah is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games when playing 5 or fewer games in 14 days.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Charlotte) - a poor team that is outscored by 3-plus points per game, after allowing 105 points or fewer in two consecutive games are 43-13 (76.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Hornets Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder ML -114

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.1 PPG, 6.5 APG) is the 2nd favorite to win the NBA MVP award currently.  He holds a grudge with the Los Angeles Clippers for trading him away, so he has his best stuff every time he faces his former team.  The Thunder are a legit title contender with Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way and tremendous depth.  I expect the Thunder to make easy work of the Clippers tonight.

The Thunder are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Clippers.  They won 134-115 in their lone home meeting this season.  The Thunder are 21-6 SU & 18-9 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.

Oklahoma City is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 games off a road win by 10 points or more.  Bet the Thunder on the Money Line Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota -3.5

Minnesota is the single-most underrated team in the entire country.  The Golden Gophers are 16-9 SU & 22-3 ATS this season, including 14-3 SU & 16-1 ATS at home.  They are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall as the books just cannot catch up to how good this team really is.

But Minnesota finds itself on the outside looking in in terms of making the NCAA Tournament currently, so they cannot afford a letdown here.  I expect another big effort from the Gophers tonight as they get the win and cover at home against Ohio State.

Ohio State is just 3-9 SU in its last 12 games overall.  But the Buckeyes are coming off their biggest win of the season, beating Purdue outright 73-69 as 8-point home dogs.  That was their first game with their interim head coach after firing Chris Holtman.  But now they are in a massive letdown spot and getting too much respect off that win against Purdue.

Ohio State is 0-7 SU & 2-5 ATS in Big Ten road games this season.  Minnesota is 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in Big Ten home games this season.  Ohio State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a road underdog of 6 points or less or PK.  Minnesota is 11-1 ATS as a favorite this season.  Bet Minnesota Thursday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Denver/South Dakota State OVER 160

Denver is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Pioneers rank 42nd in adjusted tempo, 95th in adjusted offense and a woeful 354th in adjusted defense.  They score 84.4 points per game and allow 81.2 points per game this season.

South Dakota State has been a dead nuts OVER team under current head coach Ric Henderson.  That's pretty much the case again this season ranking 109th in adjusted tempo, 153rd in adjusted offense and 212th in adjusted defense.  The Jackrabbits are scoring 76.7 points per game overall including 81.4 points per game at home.

Denver beat South Dakota State 99-80 for 179 combined points in their first meeting on January 13th this season.  It should be more of the same in the rematch, and we have 19 points to spare with this 160-point total.  That first total was set at 163, and there's no way the books should have adjusted it down.

Denver is 18-6 OVER in all games this season.  The Pioneers are 8-0 OVER in their last eight games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite.  South Dakota State is 10-1 OVER vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season.  Denver is 7-0 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks ML +100

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the New York Knicks coming out of the All-Star Break.  They went into the break going 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their final six games.  But the struggles were mostly due to injuries as they were playing without Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, Isaiah Hartenstein and Bojan Bogdanovic at various times.  All four are healthy and expected to play coming out of the break.

The Philadelphia 76ers remain without Joel Embiid and the difference between being with or without him has been drastic for this team.  The 76ers are 26-8 with Embiid in the lineup but just 6-14 without him.  They should not be favored over the Knicks tonight without him.

Plays on any team (New York) - after losing five or six of its last seven games, a good team (60-75%) playing a team with a winning record are 46-15 (75.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Knicks on the Money Line Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +15.5

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are making their push to try and make the NCAA Tournament.  An upset win over Purdue would be just what the doctor ordered.  The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall which includes upset road wins at Michigan, at Maryland and at home over Wisconsin.

Rutgers already proved it could play with Purdue only losing 68-60 as 10-point home underdogs in their first meeting this season.  The Scarlet Knights improved to 5-3 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with Purdue.  They haven't lost any of those eight meetings by more than 12 points.  Defense travels, and Rutgers is as good as anyone on that end ranking 2nd in the country in adjusted defense behind only Houston.

Rutgers is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a conference loss by 10 points or more.  The Scarlet Knights are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against good shooting teams that make 48% or better.  Bet Rutgers Thursday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico -7

I love the spot for New Mexico tonight.  The Lobos are coming off an 81-70 road loss at San Diego State on Friday.  They have had the last four days off to rest and prepare for revenge on Colorado State, which they lost 76-68 to on January 2nd in their first meeting this season.  Colorado State made 14 more free throws than they did which was the difference.

Now the Lobos get the Rams at home where they are 11-2 SU & 9-3-1 ATS inside 'The Pit', which is one of the toughest venues in the country for road teams.  The Lobos are 18-3 SU & 14-7 ATS in their last 21 home meetings with the Rams.

This is a good time to 'sell high' on the Rams coming off a 20-point blowout home victory over Utah State.  They have also gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games with four of those at home.  They did win at Fresno State, but they also lost by 16 at San Diego State in their other road game.  The Rams are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in MWC road games this season.

New Mexico is 8-1 ATS in home games with a total of 150 to 159.5 this season.  The Lobos are 8-1 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game this season.  The Lobos are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS following a loss this season.  Bet New Mexico Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -25.5

The books just can't set the lines in these DePaul games high enough.  The Blue Demons have lost 13 consecutive games with nine of those 13 losses coming by 23 points or more.  They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games losing by 33 to Seton Hall, by 25 to Xavier, by 28 to St. John's and by 36 to UConn.  I'll gladly lay the 25.5 points with Marquette at home Wednesday.

DePaul did only lost by 13 at home to Marquette in their first meeting this season.  But they got the new coach bounce in that game as their head coach was fired after the game prior.  The Blue Demons are also coming off a misleading 11-point loss at Providence.  The Friars led that game by 23 points late before the Blue Demons closed on a 12-0 run to make it look closer than it was.

I know we're going to get a focused effort from Marquette tonight, which is key when laying these big numbers.  The Golden Eagles are coming off an embarrassing 81-53 road loss at Connecticut over the weekend.  They had gone 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their previous eight games.  They will get right in a big way with a 26-plus point home victory over DePaul tonight.

DePaul is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after a game where they committed 8 or fewer turnovers.  Marquette is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games off a loss.  Bet Marquette Wednesday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte +5.5

Charlotte is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The 49ers are 17-8 SU & 14-9 ATS this season including 11-2 SU & 8-4-1 ATS in AAC play.  They are in 2nd place in the conference just one game behind South Florida, which is also one of the most underrated teams in the country.

On the opposite end of the spectrum is Memphis, which is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Tigers are 7-6 SU & 2-11 ATS in AAC play this season.  Penny Hardaway is in dangerous territory here looking like he has lost this team.

Memphis followed up a 76-66 loss at North Texas with a 106-79 loss at SMU on Sunday.  The Tigers just quit playing defense against SMU and have now allowed 74 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.  They have upset home losses to Rice as 14.5-point favorites and South Florida as 10-point favorites.  They also only beat Wichita State by 2 as 9.5-point favorites.

Memphis is 0-9 ATS after failing to cover four of its last five games this season.  Charlotte is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games when playing its 3rd game in a week.  The 49ers are 7-1 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Bet Charlotte Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma State/Cincinnati UNDER 141

This total has been set too high tonight in this Big 12 battle between two dead nuts UNDER teams in Oklahoma State and Cincinnati.  The Cowboys rank 202nd in adjusted tempo and 133rd in adjusted offense but 96th in adjusted defense.  The Bearcats rank 199th in adjusted tempo, 22nd in adjusted defense and 74th in adjusted offense.

Oklahoma State being without G Bryce Thompson (11.6 PPG) makes them even more of an UNDER team.  They lost him for the season in late January.  This is a very poor offensive team especially on the road where the Cowboys are scoring 62.8 points per game, shooting 38.7% as a team and 28.9% from 3.

Cincinnati has been an elite defensive team at home allowing 63.8 points per game, 40.4% shooting and 30.3% shooting from 3-point range.  I think the fact that both of these teams went over the total in their last games is keeping this total higher than it should be.   Cincinnati had gone 6-1 UNDER in its previous seven games with 134 or fewer combined points in five of those seven games.  Oklahoma State and its opponents have combined for 143 or fewer points in six of its last eight games.

Oklahoma State is 9-2 UNDER in its last 11 road games after losing two of its last three games coming in.  Cincinnati is 13-2 UNDER in its last 15 games vs. teams that allow 45% shooting or higher after 15-plus games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Florida/Alabama ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 173.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  They have scored 81 or more points in six consecutive games, including 99 or more in four of those six.  Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well.

Now the Crimson Tide face another dead nuts OVER team in Florida.  The Gators rank 36th in adjusted tempo and 10th in adjusted offense.  The Gators have scored at least 79 points in seven of their last eight games overall.  They are also a shaky defensive team like Alabama.

Alabama averages 91 PPG overall and 96 PPG at home.  Florida averages 85 PPG overall and 82 PPG on the road.  I expect both teams to get to their season averages tonight considering this game will be played at a rapid pace, and if that happens we cash this OVER ticket.

Florida is 6-0 OVER vs. good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or better this season.  Alabama is 6-0 OVER in its last six games after scoring 80 points or more in four consecutive games.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on TCU/Texas Tech OVER 147.5

TCU is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Horned Frogs rank 72nd in adjusted tempo and 25th in adjusted offense this season.  Texas Tech ranks 13th in adjusted offense and can light it up on that end of the court.

These teams met on January 30th with TCU winning 85-78 for 163 combined points.  Now we have a total of 147.5 for the rematch, which is just too low.  These teams also combined for 165 points in their final meeting last season.  Texas Tech is scoring 77.2 points per game at home this season while TCU is scoring 79.2 points per game on the road.

TCU is 7-0 OVER in road games off an ATS win this season.  Texas Tech is 8-2 OVER with a total of 140 to 149.5 this season.  The Red Raiders are 13-2 OVER in their last 15 games after playing their last game on the road.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah State -2

I like the spot for Utah State after losing two of its last three games with two of those losses coming on the road to Colorado State and San Diego State.  Now the Aggies want revenge from that loss to the Aztecs on February 3rd.  They shot 26.1% from 3 while the Aztecs shot 45% from 3 and attempted 15 fewer free throws.  They are due for some positive shooting regression and the benefit of the whistle at home in the rematch.

It's a good time to fade San Diego State after going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Aztecs are coming off a huge 81-70 home win over New Mexico to get their revenge on the Lobos from a previous road loss.  The Aztecs are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five road games with their lone win coming at Air Force.  They are also 1-5 ATS in their six MWC road games this season.

Utah State is 11-1 SU & 7-3-1 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 18.4 points per game at home.  San Diego State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Aztecs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games off two or more consecutive wins.  Bet Utah State Tuesday.

20* UConn/Creighton FS1 No-Brainer on UNDER 145.5

UConn and Creighton both play at a snail's pace and both play some of the best defense in the country.  That makes them both dead nuts UNDER teams.  UConn ranks 327th in adjusted tempo and 11th in adjusted defense.  Creighton ranks 221st in adjusted tempo and 24th in adjusted defense.

The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between UConn and Creighton.  They combined for 110 points in a 62-48 win by UConn in their first meeting this season.  In fact, they have combined for 129 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings.  They have combined for 140 or fewer points at the end of regulation in eight consecutive meetings, making for an 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 145.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tennessee -11

The Tennessee Vols are an absolute juggernaut this season.  They have their best offense of the Rick Barnes era and remain an elite defensive team.  They rank 5th in adjusted defense and 16th in adjusted offense.  Each of their last seven wins have come by 11 points or more, so they have no problem getting margin on teams.

Now they face the Missouri Tigers, who are 0-12 SU & 2-10 ATS in SEC play this season.  That includes 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in SEC home games with losses by 24 to Mississippi State, by 19 to Texas A&M and by 12 to Florida.  Add another blowout home loss to their record tonight against the best team they have faced at home all season.  Bet Tennessee Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +4.5

Boston College wants revenge from a 63-62 home loss to Florida State as 4-point favorites on February 6th just two weeks ago today.  Now the Eagles come back as 4.5-point underdogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment for switching home courts.

Florida State is just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall with that lone win coming against these Eagles.  The Seminoles have fallen to 12-13 this season with very little to play for the rest of the way.  The Eagles sit at 15-10 and still feel like they can make a run to the NCAA Tournament.

Florida State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 75 points or more in three consecutive games.  Bet Boston College Tuesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on NC State -5.5

NC State sits at 16-9 and trying to make the NCAA Tournament.  The Wolfpack added a big win to their resume pulling off the 78-77 win at Clemson as 8-point dogs last time out to end a two-game skid.  Now they are in a great spot tonight playing just their 2nd game in 10 days, so they will be fresh and ready to go.

NC State wants revenge from a 77-65 loss at Syracuse in their first meeting this season on January 27th.  They shot just 35.8% as a team, plus the Orange attempted 21 more free throws than they did.  That will flip in the rematch at NC State this time around.

This is a bad Syracuse team that is just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall with little to play for the rest of the way.  The Orange are coming off a 65-60 upset road loss at Georgia Tech.  They lost by 9 at home to Clemson, only beat Louisville by 2 as 8.5-point home favorites and lost by 29 at Wake Forest.  The Orange are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in ACC road games this season.  Bet NC State Tuesday.

15* Butler/Villanova FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Villanova -6

Villanova has played its way onto the bubble by going 3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in its last three games overall.  The Wildcats are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They beat Providence 68-50 as 4.5-point home favorites, lost by 3 as 3-point dogs at Xavier, crushed Seton Hall 80-54 as 7-point home favorites and handled Georgetown 70-54 as 10-point road favorites.

Now the Wildcats want revenge from an 88-81 (OT) loss at Butler on January 27th.  I expect them to get their revenge in blowout fashion tonight against a reeling Butler team that has gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall.  That includes a 22-point home loss to Creighton last time out.

Villanova is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with Butler with all nine wins coming by 10 points or more.  Bet Villanova Tuesday.

20* CBB Big Monday No-Brainer on William & Mary +17.5

William & Mary is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  The Tribe lost by 9 as 13.5-point dogs at Hofstra, pulled off the 4-point upset win as 9-point dogs at Northeastern, only lost by 4 as 8.5-point dogs at Monmouth and only lost by 11 as 12.5-point dogs at Delaware.

William & Mary only lost 84-83 as 13-point home dogs to College of Charleston in their first meeting on February 3rd earlier this month.  Now the Tribe are catching 17.5 points in the rematch, which is too much.  That's especially the case considering they have played much better on the road here of late.

Plays on road teams (William & Mary) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG) after 15-plus games, after scoring 55 points or less are 31-9 (77.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Charleston is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall and consistently overvalued.  That's the case again tonight.  Bet William & Mary Monday.

15* Utah/UCLA Pac-12 ANNIHILATOR on UCLA -2.5

The UCLA Bruins are making an impressive run here late in the season to try and make the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 8-1 SU & 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with their lone loss coming on the road at Arizona by 6 as 18-point underdogs.

Now the Bruins have their sights set on revenge from their worst loss of the season.  They lost 90-44 at Utah on January 11th, which was the game right before this 8-1 run.  That loss inspired them and forced them to take a look in the mirror.  Now they are dead set on revenge against Utah to prove that they are a much different team from that first meeting.

These teams are headed in opposite directions.  While the Bruins are very much alive for the NCAA Tournament, the Utes have played their way out of contention at this point.  They have gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They lost by 22 at Washington State by, 25 at Washington, were upset at home by Arizona State as 12-point favorites and lost by 4 at lowly USC.  They miss G Rollie Worster (9.9 PPG, 5.5 APG), who hasn't played since that win against UCLA and remains out.

UCLA is 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in its last nine home meetings with Utah.  The Utes are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games against a marginal winning team (51-60%).  Utah is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Bruins are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games off three consecutive conference wins.  Bet UCLA Sunday.

15* Rutgers/Minnesota Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota -4

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are the most underrated team in the entire country.  They have gone 15-9 SU & 21-3 ATS in all games this season, including 13-3 SU & 15-1 ATS at home.  I expect them to get the win and cover tonight at home against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.

I like the spot for Minnesota coming off two consecutive tough road losses at Iowa and at Purdue.  They blew a 20-point lead at Iowa after their best player in Dawson Garcia (17.6 PPG) got hurt with 16 minutes remaining.  Garcia returned for the Purdue game and scored 24 points and the Gophers showed what they were capable of, only losing 84-76 as 16.5-point road dogs against one of the best teams in the entire country in the Boilermakers.

Rutgers is starting to get too much respect after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  But the Scarlet Knights have some major injury concerns coming into this one, while the Gophers are fully healthy.  Noah Fernandes (6.7 PPG) was knocked out of the Northwestern game last time out with an ankle injury.  He scored 17 points against Wisconsin the game prior.  Mawot Mag (9.8 PPG) missed the NW game but had scored 12 or more points in three straight games prior.  Both Mag and Fernandes are questionable to play tonight.

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Florida +5.5

South Florida has been disrespected all season and Florida Atlantic has been getting too much respect after making the Final 4 last season.  That remains the case here Sunday.  I fully expect the Bulls to earn their respect with an outright upset of the Owls, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

South Florida is 18-5 SU & 15-6 ATS this season.  The Bulls have gone 13-2-2 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They are 12-2 SU at home this season and 11-1 SU in conference play.  Their lone conference loss came on the road by 4 points at UAB.

Florida Atlantic is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games overall and consistently laying too many points to the opposition due to the notoriety of making the Final 4 last year.  But they are getting everyone's best shot with a target on their back, and they will get South Florida's best shot today as well.

South Florida is a perfect 7-0 SU in its last seven home meetings with Florida Atlantic.  Bet South Florida Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona State +18.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Arizona Wildcats off five consecutive victories.  They are coming off a pair of impressive road wins 105-99 (3 OT) at Utah and 99-79 at Colorado.  That win at Colorado was even more impressive because they were coming off that 3 OT game and playing their 2nd game in 3 days in altitude.  I think they take their foot off the gas tonight against Arizona State.

But Arizona hasn't been very impressive in three of its last four home games.  The Wildcats are 1-3 ATS in their last four home games beating Stanford by 11 as 18-point favorites, UCLA by 6 as 18-point favorites and USC by 15 as 20.5-point favorites.  I think Arizona State can stay within 18.5 tonight just as those three teams did.

The Sun Devils are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  Their last two games they upset Utah 85-77 as 12-point road dogs and crushed Oregon State 79-61 as 6.5-point home favorites.  Now they are looking at this game against big brother Arizona as their 'national championship' game and will put their best foot forward.

Arizona State pulled the 89-88 outright upset as 12.5-point road dogs last year.  The Sun Devils are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams that are called for 3-plus fewer fouls per game than their opponents.  Each of the last eight meetings in this series were decided by 19 points or fewer, including seven by 13 points or fewer.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Providence -20

The books just can't set the lines in these DePaul games high enough.  The Blue Demons have lost 12 consecutive games with nine of those 12 losses coming by 23 points or more.  I'll gladly lay the 20 points with Providence at home Saturday.

Providence already beat DePaul 100-62 on the road this season.  I think after beating the Blue Demons by 38 on the road, they will have no problem beating them by 21-plus at home in the rematch.  Bet Providence Saturday.

15* Kentucky/Auburn ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 164.5

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 12th in adjusted tempo and 7th in adjusted offense but just 104th in adjusted defense.  They are 18-6 OVER in their 24 games this season.  They are averaging 167.0 combined points per game with their opponents this season.

Auburn won't mind running with Kentucky at all.  The Tigers rank 66th in adjusted tempo and 9th in adjusted offense this season.  They are scoring 86.8 points per game at home this season.  I expect both teams to top 80 points in this one and Auburn to get 90-plus.

Kentucky is 16-4 OVER vs. teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Wildcats are 9-1 OVER vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less this season.  Kentucky is 10-1 OVER after a win by 10 points or more this season.  The Wildcats are 11-1 OVER off an ATS win this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt +20.5

Tennessee just doesn't take Vanderbilt seriously.  As a result, the Commodores are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with Tennessee.  They lost by 13 as 13.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  They upset the Vols as 10-point home dogs last year.  They only lost by 9 as 16.5-point road dogs and by 9 as 11.5-point road dogs in their last two road meetings.

Vanderbilt treats this game like its 'national championship' game every year.  The Commdores upset Texas A&M 74-73 as 8.5-point home dogs last time out to flash their potential, and they already proved they could play with the Vols int their first meeting this season.  They actually led that game by 5 points at halftime, and the 13-point loss was not indicative of how close it really was.

Vanderbilt is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games off a win by 6 points or less.  Tennessee is 1-9 ATS with a total set of 140 to 149.5 this season.  The Commodores are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on UCF +1

UCF has proven it can hang in the Big 12 in its first season going 8-3 ATS in its 11 Big 12 games.  That includes home wins over Kansas, West Virginia and Oklahoma.  Now they host a Cincinnati team that they can handle here.

Cincinnati is finding the Big 12 to be tough sledding going 3-7 SU in its last 10 games overall.  The Bearcats just lost at home to both Houston and Iowa State and now have to go on the road here against UCF.  This is a brutal stretch that will have taken a lot out of them.

UCF is 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS at home this season.  The Knights are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games off two consecutive games with 12 or fewer assists.  UCF is 8-1 ATS following a loss this season.  Bet UCF Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Wisconsin +1

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on Wisconsin after going 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall against a brutal schedule.  Now they get a break in the schedule here against an Iowa Hawkeyes team that is one of the worst in the Big Ten.

Iowa is 3-5 SU & 1-7 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The three wins came against Michigan, Ohio State and Minnesota.  They were down 20 at home to Minnesota but the Gophers' best player in Dawson Garcia got hurt and they made the big comeback.  They are coming off a 12-point loss at Maryland last time out.

Wisconsin beat Iowa 83-72 at home in their first meeting this season to continue their dominance in this series.  Iowa shot 41.2% from 3 while Wisconsin shot 25% yet the Badgers still won by 11.  The Badgers are now 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Hawkeyes.

Iowa is 1-9 ATS after two straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers this season.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Mississippi State -12

Arkansas is a dead team walking.  The Razorbacks are 3-8 SU & 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have rarely been competitive losing by 21 at LSU, by 26 at Ole Miss, by 22 at Florida, by 10 at Georgia and by 29 at home to Tennessee last time out.  They are getting blasted on the road going 1-4 SU in their SEC road games with four losses by double-digits and their lone win at Missouri, which is winless in SEC play still.

Mississippi State is in a great spot coming in on a full week of rest after playing last Saturday in a 75-51 win at Missouri.  Arkansas just played on Wednesday in that 29-point home loss to Tennessee.  The Bulldogs have one of the better home-court advantages in the SEC going 9-2 SU at home this season including wins over Tennessee and Auburn, which are the two best teams in the SEC.

Arkansas is 0-7 ATS after playing two consecutive home games this season.  The Razorbacks are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after allowing 80 points or more.  Arkansas is 3-14 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Horizon League PLAY OF THE DAY on IPFW -9.5

Detroit (1-26) is coming off its first victory of the season with an 81-66 home win over IUPUI as 5.5-point favorites.  IUPUI is the only team that is worse than Detroit in the Horizon League.  Now this is a massive letdown spot for the Titans, and I don't expect them to show up at all after getting that huge monkey off their back.

IPFW crushed Detroit 91-56 as 13-point home favorites in their first meeting this season.  I don't think it's asking much of them to win this game by double-digits to get the cover in the rematch considering the letdown spot for Detroit.

IPFW is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games with a total set of 140 to 149.5 points.  Detroit is 2-8 ATS in home games this season.  The Titans are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games when revenging a road loss.  Detroit is 1-9 ATS vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet IPFW Saturday.

15* Texas/Houston CBS ANNIHILATOR on Texas +10.5

Houston has been grossly overvalued here of late due to being the top-ranked team in KenPom.  The result has been the Cougars going 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are once again overvalued as double-digit home favorites against Texas Saturday.

Texas wants revenge from a 76-72 (OT) home loss to Houston on January 29th less than three weeks ago.  The Longhorns already proved they could play with Houston at home, and they have some very impressive efforts on the road in Big 12 play this season.  They upset TCU 77-66 as 4.5-point road dogs, upset Oklahoma 75-60 as 4.5-point road dogs and upset Cincinnati 74-73 as 5-point road dogs.  This is a veteran team that will relish the hostile atmosphere in Houston.

Houston is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or better after 15-plus games.  Bet Texas Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia +3.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Georgia Bulldogs.  They are 0-5 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall against a brutal schedule.  But now they have had the last week off having played last Saturday to rest and recover.  I expect a big effort from the Bulldogs against their arch rivals in Florida.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Gators.  They have gone 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall.  But they are starting to get overvalued, and they were fortunate to escape with an 82-80 home win over LSU as 11-point favorites on Tuesday.

Georgia will be extra motivated for revenge from a 102-98 (OT) loss at Florida on January 27th.  The Gators shot 54.9% from the field and 17-of-20 (85%) from the FT line and still needed OT to get by the Bulldogs.  Things won't come as easy for the Gators on the road this time around.  Georgia is 11-3 SU at home this season while Florida is 2-4 SU in SEC road games with one win at winless Missouri and the other coming by 3 points.

Florida is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games after winning four or five of its last six games.  Bet Georgia Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Creighton -2.5

Creighton wants revenge from a shocking 99-98 home loss to Butler as 10-point favorites on February 2nd just two weeks ago.  Now the Bluejays come back as only 2.5-point road favorites in the rematch, and I like the value we are getting on them.

Butler shot 55.1% from the field and a ridiculous 13-of-22 (59.1%) from 3-point range to pull off that upset.  The Bulldogs won't shoot that well again in the rematch.  Creighton ranks 18th in adjusted offense and 29th in adjusted defense while Butler ranks 31st in adjusted offense and 84th in adjusted defense.  The Bluejays are by far the superior team, and it will show Saturday.

Creighton is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games after winning two of its last three games.  The Bluejays are 30-15 ATS in their last 45 games when revenging a close loss by 3 points or less.  The Bulldogs are 10-20 ATS in their last 30 games as underdogs.  Creighton is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game.  Bet Creighton Saturday.

15* Texas A&M/Alabama ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 157.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 14th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well.

The OVER is 7-2 in Alabama's last nine games overall with 154 or more combined points in all nine games, including 161 or more in five consecutive games.  This is a very low total for a game involving Alabama right now.

Alabama will control the tempo playing at home against a Texas A&M team that likes to slow it down.  But the Aggies have an offense that can keep up with some elite guards.  They rank 33rd in the country in adjusted offense.  Alabama has a problem defending elite guards.

Texas A&M is 20-9 OVER in its last 20 road games.  Alabama is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games after scoring 80 points or more in three consecutive games.  The Crimson Tide are 10-1 OVER in Saturday games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* TCU/Kansas State ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State -1

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Kansas State Wildcats.  They are 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall against a brutal schedule.  They lost four straight with three road losses to Iowa State, Houston and Oklahoma State before upsetting Kansas at home to show what they are capable of.  They also hung with BYU in a 6-point road loss as 11-point dogs last time out.

But now Kansas State is rested and ready to go and highly motivated for a victory.  They have had the last week off since that road loss at BYU last Saturday.  The Wildcats will be playing just their 2nd game in 12 days.  Meanwhile, TCU will be playing its 3rd game in 8 days.

Kansas State is 11-2 SU at home this season.  TCU is 2-3 SU in Big 12 road games.  The Wildcats are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games following two consecutive conference games.  Kansas State is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games after forcing three straight opponents to commit 11 or fewer turnovers.  Kansas State beat TCU 82-61 at home last season.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

20* New Mexico/SDSU MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico +6.5

New Mexico has played some of its best basketball on the road this season proving that the Lobos can win away from The Pit.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four MWC road games with three wins by 18 points or more as well as an upset win at Nevada.

Now the Lobos are catching 6.5 points on the road to a San Diego State team that they beat 88-70 at home in their first meeting.  They won by 18 despite shooting just 7-of-24 (29.2%) from 3 and 21-of-31 (67.7%) from the FT line.  There was nothing fluky about that victory at all.  They go from being 3.5-point favorites in that game to 6.5-point road dogs in the rematch, which is a 10-point adjustment.  That's too big of an adjustment for flipping home courts.

New Mexico is 6-0 ATS after allowing 80 points or more this season.  The Lobos are 7-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less this season.  New Mexico is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with San Diego State including a 76-67 upset win as 8-point road dogs last year.  Bet New Mexico Friday.

15* Utah/USC Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 147.5

The USC Trojans just got their best player in Isiah Collier back from injury.  They are a terrible defensive team regardless, but they are a much better offensive team with Collier in the lineup.  The result has been two consecutive shootouts combining for 167 points with Stanford and 170 with California.

Utah is playing in a ton of shootouts here of late as well combining for 157 with Oregon, 171 with Washington, 204 with Arizona and 162 with Arizona State in four of their last six games.  Utah ranks 77th in adjusted tempo and 43rd in adjusted offense.  USC also likes to play fast ranking 116th in adjusted tempo.

USC is 6-0 OVER when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Trojans are 11-1 OVER after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread this season.  USC is 11-1 OVER vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers +9.5

I like the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They will want revenge from a 121-109 home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday.  Now they get their shot at revenge at home again, and they go from 7.5-point dogs to 9.5-point dogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjusment.

The Timberwolves are looking ahead to the All-Star Break and want nothing to do with this game tonight.  They won't be motivated at all to beat the Blazers again, which will make it difficult for them to win by double-digits, which is what it is going to take to beat us tonight.

We saw the Blazers in a similar spot less than a week ago.  They lost by 12 in Denver as 12.5-point dogs and only lost by 9 to the Nuggets in the rematch as 14.5-point dogs.  Minnesota is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games after covering 5 or 6 of its last seven games.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on California/Washington State UNDER 139.5

Washington State is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Cougars rank 303rd in adjusted tempo and 28th in adjusted defense.  They pride themselves on defense, and they will control the tempo at home tonight, which will be played at a snail's pace against California.

This will be the 2nd meeting of the season between Washington State and California, and the first would have stayed UNDER the total if not for OT.  Cal won 81-75 (OT) at home in a game that was tied 68-68 at the end of regulation for just 136 combined points.

In fact, Cal and Washington State have now combined for 139 or fewer points at the end of regulation in 11 consecutive meetings, making for an 11-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 139.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Jazz OVER 239.5

The Golden State Warriors are really clicking offensively right now.  They have scored 119 or more points in 10 of their last 12 games overall.  I expect them to top that number tonight to lead the way in us cashing this OVER 239.5 bet.

The Utah Jazz have scored at least 120 points in 15 of their last 19 games overall.  I expect them to top that number as well.  The Jazz have been atrocious defensively, allowing 138, 129 and 129 points in their last three games overall.  They have simply quit playing defense heading into the All-Star Break.

Both teams will be tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back in altitude tonight.  I think it will affect their defensive effort more than anything.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple +20

The Florida Atlantic Owls set some unsustainable expectations when they made their run to the Final 4 last season.  They have been overvalued big time in conference play this season.  They have a target on their backs and are getting everyone's best shot on a nightly basis.

The result has been a 3-9 ATS run over their last 12 games overall.  The Owls aren't blowing anyone out.  They have won several close games during this stretch with six of their last 13 games decided by 4 points or fewer.  They had no business covering against Wichita State last game, winning by 13 as 7.5-point favorites in overtime.

Florida Atlantic won't be motivated at all to beat Temple tonight, which is going to make it very difficult for them to cover this inflated 20-point spread.  They have a huge game on deck at South Florida on Sunday against the team that is leading the conference.  They will be looking ahead to that game.

Temple is 1-10 SU in conference play, but all 10 losses came by 18 points or less, and nine by 13 points or fewer.  So they haven't lost by this kind of margin in conference play.  Temple's last six games were all decided by 7 points or fewer or went to OT.  They will be treating this game as their 'national championship' game against FAU.  

Temple has just one loss by more than 18 points all season, making for a 23-1 system backing the Owls pertaining to this 20-point spread.  Florida Atlantic has just one win by more than 15 points in its last 15 games.  Bet Temple Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Fresno State +5

It's time to 'sell high' on the UNLV Rebels.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as well.  One of their last four wins came 78-69 at home against Fresno State as 8-point favorites on January 30th.

So now the Bulldogs have quick revenge in mind getting the Rebels at home this time around.  They committed 21 turnovers in that first meeting and still only lost by 9.  They will take much better care of the basketball at home this time around.  They are coming off two straight upset road wins at San Jose State and Air Force, and I like their chances of pulling off the upset in this rematch as well.

UNLV is also in a massive letdown spot coming off an 80-77 road win at New Mexico as 12-point underdogs.  They have another huge game on deck against their biggest rivals in Nevada on Saturday, making this a big sandwich spot for the Rebels.  They won't give Fresno State their full attention tonight as a result.

Plays on underdogs (Fresno State) - off two or more consecutive upset wins as road underdogs in Wednesday games are 46-19 (70.8%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Fresno State Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Clippers/Warriors OVER 234

The Golden State Warriors are really clicking offensively right now.  They have scored 119 or more points in nine of their last 11 games overall.  I expect them to top that number tonight to lead the way in us cashing this OVER 234 bet.

The Clippers will be without Kawhi Leonard, but his loss is felt more defensively than anything as he is one of their best defenders.  This isn't a very good defensive team without him with guys like James Harden, Paul George and Russell Westbrook playing more minutes.  The Clippers will get their points as they are loaded offensively, scoring 118.0 points per game overall and 118.8 points per game on the road.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 234 or more combined points in three of those four meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Warriors ESPN No-Brainer on Golden State -2.5

The Golden State Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their lone loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road in OT at Atlanta.  They have home wins over the Suns and 76ers, as well as road wins over the Grizzlies by 20, the Nets by 11, the 76ers by 24, the Pacers by 22 and the Jazz by 22.  These games haven't even been close.

The Los Angeles Clippers are limping into the All-Star Break having gone 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were upset by the Pelicans at home by 11 as 6-point favorites, only beat the Pistons by 6 as 17-point home favorites and lost by 21 at home to the Timberwolves as 4.5-point favorites.

Now the Clippers will be without their best player in Kawhi Leonard (24.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 3.7 APG) tonight.  This team goes as Leonard goes, and I don't expect them to put up much of a fight without him tonight.

Home-court advantage has meant everything in this series.  Indeed, the home team is 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Warriors Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Grizzlies UNDER 219.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts UNDER team without all of their top scorers right now due to injury.  Memphis is 18-7 UNDER in its 25 home games which have seen an average of just 215.3 combined points per game.  The Grizzlies have been held to 113 or fewer points in 14 consecutive games now.

The Rockets are also missing two key players in Fred VanVleet (16.5 PPG, 8.2 APG) and Cam Whitmore (11.9 PPG).  They have been held to 105 or fewer points in five of their last nine games overall.  The Grizzlies rank dead last (30th) in offensive rating while the Rockets rank 23rd.

Memphis is 10-2 UNDER in home games off two or more consecutive losses this season.  Houston is 13-5 UNDER off a home win this season.  The Rockets are 30-14 UNDER in their last 44 games following a win overall.  The Grizzlies are 8-1 UNDER in home games against teams that force 13 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +13.5

I like the spot for the Brooklyn Nets tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 118-110 home loss to the Boston Celtics last night.  Now they come back as 13.5-point dogs on the road in the rematch tonight.  The Celtics won't be very motivated to beat this team again, which will make it difficult for them to cover this inflated number.

All five starters for the Celtics played at least 35 minutes last night.  They aren't as deep as the Nets, who will have an advantage in this 2nd of a back-to-back situation with four of their five starters playing 34 minutes or fewer, and three playing 28 or fewer last night.

Boston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games following a win where it didn't cover the spread.  The Celtics are 5-13 ATS following three or more consecutive wins this season.  Boston is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall and grossly overvalued over the last couple weeks.  The Celtics are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games vs. good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall -2.5

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on Seton Hall.  The Pirates have played a few games without their best player in Kadary Richmond (15.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 4.9 APG) here recently that have contributed to a 2-4 SU stretch of their last six games.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season, an 80-54 road loss at Villanova.

Now the Pirates are back home where they will want revenge from a 74-54 road loss at Xavier in their first meeting this season.  They shot 2-of-15 (13.3%) from 3 while Xavier shot 10-of-20 (50%) which was the difference.  They are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.  I believe the Pirates are favored for good reason tonight and will bounce back in a big way now that they are fully healthy.

Xavier is 2-5 SU on the road this season with one of those wins coming against DePaul.  Seton Hall is 9-3 SU at home this season with wins over UConn and Marquette.  Their two Big East home losses came by a combined 7 points and they didn't have Richmond in one of them.

The Pirates are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games off a blowout conference loss by 20 points or more.  Bet Seton Hall Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +3.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They upset Rutgers by 15 as 7-point road dogs, upset Indiana by 14 as 7-point road dogs, upset Iowa by 10 as 1-point home dogs and took Northwestern to the wire in a 5-point loss as 7.5-point road dogs.  They cover the spread by a combined 56.5 points in their last four games.

Now the Nittany Lions are undervalued once again as 3.5-point home dogs to Michigan State.  They want revenge from a 92-61 road loss at Michigan State.  They shot 3-of-29 (10.3%) from 3 while the Spartans shot 10-of-21 (47.6%) from 3 in that game.  It's safe to say the Nittany Lions are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch, and they have been shooting it much better here of late.

Michigan State is 1-5 SU & 1-4-1 ATS in Big Ten road games this season with their lone win coming by 2 points at Maryland.  The Spartans are in a bit of a letdown spot here as well after a big comeback home win over Illinois over the weekend.

Michigan State is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games after covering two of its last three games.  The Spartans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after winning three of their last four games.  Penn State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  The Nittany Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games off a loss by 6 points or less.  Penn State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better in the 2nd half of the season.  Bet Penn State Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +8.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a letdown spot coming off two consecutive upset road wins over the Bucks and Clippers.  They beat the Clippers 121-100 last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  I can't see them being all that motivated to beat the Blazers tonight after upsetting the Clippers, and they are definitely the more tired team.

The Blazers have had the last two days off and will be playing just their 3rd game in 9 days.  They are expected to get Anfernee Simons (23.4 PPG, 5.3 APG) back from injury, and he means everything to their success.  They also have Jerami Grant (21.9 PPG) and De'Andre Ayton (13.9 PPG, 10.4 RPG) healthy and could get back Scoot Henderson (12.8 PPG, 4.6 APG), who is questionable.

The Blazers have been competitive in seven consecutive games not once losing by more than 12 points and with only one loss by double-digits.  This despite battling through injuries to several of their key players.  I love the spot for the Blazers with the rest advantage, and they are 42-12 SU in their last 54 home meetings with the Timberwolves to boot.

Minnesota is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games after covering five or six of their last seven games.  Plays against favorites (Minnesota) - after scoring 120 points or more against an opponent after a combined score of 185 points or less are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Timberwolves.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

20* Ole Miss/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 162.5

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 14th in adjusted tempo and 5th in adjusted offense but just 125th in adjusted defense.  They are 18-5 OVER in their 23 games this season, including 12-2 OVER in their 14 home games which are seeing 170.6 combined points per game on average.

Ole Miss is an elite offensive team ranking 30th in adjusted offense but like Kentucky, a terrible defensive team ranking 130th in adjusted defense.  The Rebels are 10th in 3-point percentage hitting 38.7% on the season.  The Wildcats are 1st at 41% on the season.  These are two elite shooting teams, so the OVER is a great bet.

Kentucky is 15-1 OVER after a game with 155 or more combined points this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Wisconsin -9

Wisconsin will be max motivated for a victory tonight to end a 4-game losing streak.  Three of those losses came on the road and the lone home loss was against arguably the best team in the country in Purdue when they shot 3-of-19 from 3 and still only lost by 6 points.  Now they are back home here against a team they can handle in Ohio State.

The Buckeyes are 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their two wins both coming at home against Penn State and Maryland.  The Buckeyes are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in Big Ten road games this season with losses to Penn State, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, Northwestern and Iowa.  This will be their toughest road test this season.

Wisconsin beat Ohio State 71-60 on the road in their first meeting this season.  The Badgers are 11-2 SU & 8-5 ATS at home this season.  The Buckeyes are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games.  Ohio State is 1-8 ATS off a home win this season.  The Buckeyes are 0-7 ATS vs. teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers pe game this season.  Bet Wisconsin Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Magic OVER 223

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 10th in pace and 5th in offensive rating.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in Thunder last five games overall with 232 or more combined points in all five games.  This 223-point total is very low for a game involving the Thunder right now.

The Magic are more of an under team, but they have gone OVER in three consecutive games and are fully healthy right now.  They have gone 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall as well.  The books continue to set their totals too low.  They won't mind getting up and down with the Thunder in this one.

The first meeting between the Thunder and Magic this season the total was set at 232, so this total is 9 points less and there's value as a result.  Both teams shot terribly in that first meeting which is why it stayed under.  The Thunder shot 7-of-35 (20%) from 3-point range while the Magic shot 8-of-36 (22.2%).  Both teams are due for some positive shooting regression in the rematch.

Orlando is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games after winning four of its last five games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois State +18.5

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Indiana State Sycamores who are 22-3 and in 1st place in the Missouri Valley.  They have won nine consecutive games and are coming off a hard-fought 73-71 win at Missouri State on Saturday.  I expect them to be flat as a pancake tonight, which is going to make it very difficult for them to cover this inflated 18.5-point spread.

Illinois State is just 11-14 SU this season but has been very competitive in pretty much every game.  In fact, the Redbirds have just one loss by more than 17 points in their last 12 games.  They have played some of their best basketball on the road this season with their last five road games all decided by single-digits.  They upset both Missouri State and Murray State on the road during this stretch and only lost by 3 as 8-point dogs at Southern Illinois.

Illinois State hasn't lost any of its last nine meetings with Indiana State by more than 16 points, making for a perfect 9-0 system backing the Redbirds pertaining to this 18.5-point spread.  Bet Illinois State Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Utah Jazz ML +105

The Utah Jazz have been the best covering team at home in the NBA this season.  They are 17-7 SU & 18-5-1 ATS at home and have knocked off many of the top contenders in the league.  They should not be home underdogs to the Golden State Warriors tonight.

I love the spot for the Jazz coming in on three days' rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go.  I hate the spot for the Warriors coming off a 113-112 home win over the Suns where Steph Curry won it with a 3-pointers just before the buzzer.  This is now a letdown spot for the Warriors, who will also be playing in their 7th different city in 11 days and in altitude to boot.  This is a tired team right now ripe for the upset.

Utah is 9-1 ATS in home games after losing four or five of its last six games this season.  Golden State is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The home team is 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Jazz Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Mavs OVER 247

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team when they have Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic on the court at the same time.  They are two of the best scorers in the NBA, but they are also two of the worst defenders.  The Mavericks rank 7th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating this season while playing at the 8th-fastest tempo.

They face another dead nuts OVER team here in the Washington Wizards, who rank 1st in pace and 27th in defensive rating.  But the Wizards are a pretty good offensive team with all of their young guards.  They lost a 129-133 shootout in Boston in their last road game for 262 combined points.  The Mavericks are coming off a 146-111 home win over the Thunder for 257 combined points.

Washington is 32-12 OVER in its last 44 games vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game, including 13-2 OVER in their last 15 in the 2nd half of the season.  Dallas is 16-6 OVER against teams with losing records this season.  These teams have combined for 247 and 253 points in their last two meetings, and the OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Nuggets/Bucks NBA TV No-Brainer on Milwaukee +2

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Milwaukee Bucks.  They went 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their first six games with Doc Rivers.  But it was largely due to a brutal schedule and some injuries.  They played five straight road games and came home and lost to Minnesota.

But the Bucks bounced back with a 120-84 home win over the Hornets on the 2nd of a back-to-back in Damian Lillard's return from injury.  Now they have had the last two days off to rest and recover, and now they want revenge from a 107-113 road loss at Denver on January 29th in Rivers' first game.

The Bucks go from 4-point road dogs at Denver in that meeting to 2-point home dogs in the rematch.  They should be at least 2-point home favorites when adjusting for home-court advantage and the spot.

Denver is 2-11 ATS after playing two consecutive road games this season.  Plays on any team (Milwaukee) - after losing five or six of its last seven games, a good team (60-75%) playing a winning team are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on all teams with a line of +3 to -3 (Milwaukee) - off a blowout home win by 20 points or more, a good team winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Bucks Monday.

20* Kings/Thunder NBA No-Brainer on OVER 239

The Sacramento Kings and Oklahoma City Thunder are both two dead nuts OVER teams.  The Thunder rank 10th in pace while the Kings rank 11th.  The Thunder rank 5th in offensive rating while the Kings rank 14th.

The OVER is 5-0 in Kings last five games overall with 238 or more combined points in all five games and 241 or more in four of them.  The OVER is 4-0 in Thunder last four games overall with 241 or more combined points in three consecutive games.  These teams combined for 251 points in their most recent meeting this season.

Oklahoma City is 16-1 OVER vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game over the last two seasons.  The Thunder are 10-1 OVER vs. good offensive teams scoring 116 or more points per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Minnesota/Iowa Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +6.5

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are 15-7 SU & 19-3 ATS this season as they best covering team in the entire country.  They have been grossly undervalued all season and remain undervalued here as a 6.5-point road underdog to the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Iowa is 13-10 SU & 9-14 ATS this season, including just 4-8 ATS at home as they are one of the more overvalued teams in the country.  The Hawkeyes are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming against two of the worst teams in the Big Ten in Michigan by 10 and Ohio State by 2 both at home.  They were also upset by Maryland at home.

Minnesota wants revenge from an 86-77 home loss to Iowa.  The Hawkeyes shot a unsustainable 53.8% in that game while the Gophers shot 5-of-29 (17.2%) from 3.  I think the Golden Gophers are due for some positive shooting regression to say the least in the rematch.

The Gophers are 10-0 ATS off two straight games with 9 or fewer offensive rebounds this season.  The Hawkeyes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better.  Bet Minnesota Sunday.

20* Penn State/Northwestern Big Ten No-Brainer on Penn State +8.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three outright upsets on the road at Rutgers by 15 as 7-point dogs, on the road at Indiana by 14 as 7-point dogs and at home over Utah by 10 as 1-point dogs.  They have cover the spread by a combined 54 points in those three games.

The books still aren't giving the Nittany Lions the respect they deserve today as 8.5-point road dogs at Northwestern.  They want revenge from a 76-72 home loss to the Wildcats as 1.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season on January 10th.  That was a rare loss for the Nittany Lions in this series as they are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Wildcats with three outright upsets as underdogs.

Northwestern lost sharp shooter Ty Berry to a knee injury in their 80-68 home win over Nebraska last time out.  Berry averages 11.6 points per game and shoots 43.3% from 3 and 89.5% from the FT line. His loss isn't being factored into this line enough.  Berry had 16 points and 5 rebounds while making 4-of-5 from 3-point range in their first meeting with Penn State.

Penn State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  The Nittany Lions are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games as underdogs.  Penn State is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better.  The Wildcats are due for some 3-point shooting regression, especially without Berry.  They shot 58.3% from 3 in that first meeting and still only won by 4 despite Penn State shooting 3-of-17 (17.6%) from 3.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* Seton Hall/Villanova Big East Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 133.5

Seton Hall and Villanova are both dead nuts UNDER teams.  Couple that with the fact that this is an early, sleepy start time at 12:00 EST and I think we have the perfect recipe for a defensive battle in this Big East showdown.

Villanova ranks 338th in adjusted tempo and 25th in adjusted defense.  Seton Hall ranks 294th in adjusted tempo and 68th in adjusted defense.

Villanova is 4-2 UNDER in its last six games overall with 131 or fewer combined points in four of those six games.  Seton Hall is 3-1 UNDER in its last four games overall with 132 or fewer combined points in three of those four games.

Seton Hall is 52-33 UNDER in its last 85 games overall.  Villanova is 6-0 UNDER in its last six home games after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.