|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-04-12||New Jersey Nets +8.5 v. Portland Trailblazers||88-101||Loss||-110||10 h 11 m||Show|
15* Nets/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on New Jersey +8.5
The New Jersey Nets are playing their best basketball of the season right now. The same cannot be said for the Portland Trail Blazers, who have all but played themselves out of the Western Conference playoff race over the last few months. I like to the Nets to cover this big number with ease tonight.
New Jersey is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. That includes a 16-point home win over Indiana, and two road victories over Golden State and Sacramento. Their lone loss was a 4-point setback to the Los Angeles Lakers last night as they nearly pulled off the upset in Staples Center.
Portland hasn't won back-to-back games since late January, having alternated decisions in its last nine contests to put the club in a tough position heading into the final weeks of the season. Ownership really showed that they were not playing for this season, rather rebuilding for next when they decided to trade Gerald Wallace to New Jersey before the trade deadline.
Look for Wallace to have a big game against his former team tonight, and for the Blazers to continue to struggle. The Blazers have just one win by more than 6 points over their last 10 games. The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Take the Nets Wednesday.
|04-04-12||Phoenix Suns +6 v. Utah Jazz||Top||107-105||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +6
The Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz are each fighting for their playoff lives right now. Though Phoenix has won 15 of 22, it currently sits 10th in the West. However, the Suns are one-half game behind ninth-place Utah (28-26) and 1 1/2 back of Houston, which owns the eighth and final playoff spot.
I like the way Phoenix has been playing for the last couple months, and I believe they are simply catching too many points tonight against a banged-up Jazz bunch. Utah is without starting SG Raja Bell, and they may also be without starting PG Devin Harris, who is listed as questionable after leaving their last game with an ankle injury.
The main reason I am backing the Suns tonight is because it's simply a match-up nightmare for Utah. Phoenix has absolutely owned this series over the last few seasons, and I don't see that changing here. The Suns have won six straight over Utah, which includes five wins by 9 points or more. They should not be the underdog in this one.
The Suns are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Phoenix is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Utah is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Jazz are 16-34 ATS in their last 50 games following a ATS win. Bet Phoenix Wednesday.
|04-04-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Miami Heat UNDER 196.5||93-98||Win||100||8 h 12 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Heat ESPN 2 Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 196.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Miami Heat just played each other less than two weeks ago on March 25th. Oklahoma City won that game 103-87 at home for 190 combined points. With the familiarity of having just played each other, I believe this rematch will easily see less than 196.5 combined points.
These huge National TV games always seem to be lower-scoring. The fact of the matter is that when players get on National TV, they get tight offensively, but their effort is better defensively. I believe that will be the case here, plus their familiarity with one another will make points hard to come by as each team makes the proper adjustments defensively.
Miami is 11-3 to the UNDER in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. Oklahoma City is 9-1 to the UNDER after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread this season, and we're seeing an average of 182.5 points/game in this spot. The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|04-03-12||New Jersey Nets +9.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers||87-91||Win||100||11 h 21 m||Show|
15* Nets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on New Jersey +9.5
I have been fading the Los Angeles Lakers quite a bit lately, and with great success. I got recent covers on the Blazers, Grizzlies and Warriors while going against the Lakers at home. Los Angeles just has a knack for playing to the level of their competition, and they rarely blow out teams that they are supposed to.
New Jersey is playing very well of late, and they'll be chomping at the bit to face the Lakers in Staples Center tonight. That's a big reason why the Lakers struggle against the spread at home is because they always get the opposing team's best shot. The Nets are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating Indiana 100-84 at home before going on the road to knock off the Warriors and Kings.
The Lakers are in a huge look-ahead spot tonight. They lead the Pacific Division by just one game over the Los Angeles Clippers, which would mean they'd be the No. 3 seed if the season were to end today. Guess who the Lakers play tomorrow night? The Clippers, which is a team they will be much more interested in facing than the Nets.
Los Angeles is 1-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Lakers are 1-8 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season. The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Pacific opponents. The Lakers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. L.A. is 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. These five trends make for a 38-2 (95%) system backing New Jersey. Take the Nets Tuesday.
|04-03-12||Golden State Warriors +7 v. Memphis Grizzlies||94-98||Win||100||9 h 51 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Golden State Warriors +7
This is a huge letdown spot for the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. Memphis caught Oklahoma City playing the second of a back-to-back last night and took advantage, beating the Thunder 94-88 on the road. After such a huge win over the No. 1 seed in the West, and playing the second of a back-to-back, there is a very good chance the Grizzlies come out flat tonight.
Another reason I believe they will come out flat is because this is a look-ahead game as well. Memphis will be playing the defending champion Dallas Mavericks tomorrow night, which is a game they will be much more interested in than this one with the Warriors tonight.
While the Warriors have lost five straight, four of those losses came by 8 points or less, including three by 3 points or fewer. Golden State has lost their first three meetings of the season with the Grizzlies, though two of those losses came by a single point each. That makes the Warriors the more motivated team tonight as they look to avoid the season sweep.
Golden State is a perfect 9-0 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. The Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Grizzlies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Roll with the Warriors Tuesday.
|04-03-12||Charlotte Bobcats +9 v. Toronto Raptors||Top||87-92||Win||100||8 h 52 m||Show|
25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Charlotte Bobcats +9
The Charlotte Bobcats are showing their best value of the season tonight as a 9-point underdog to the Toronto Raptors. This is a battle between two teams that aren't going to make the playoffs, and as a result it's going to be hard for Toronto to be motivated enough to win this game by double-digits.
While Charlotte continues to lose, they have at least been more competitive of late to show that they have not completely packed it in. The Bobcats have lost three of their last four games by 7 points or less, and they just took Detroit to overtime on the road last time out. The Bobcats have had two days' rest since that loss to the Pistons.
Toronto should not be laying 9 points to any team in this league. While they have been better than the Bobcats this season, the Raptors still aren't that good at 18-35. Plus, the Bobcats have their number, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings dating back to 2010.
The Raptors are 4-17 ATS revenging 2 consecutive straight up losses to opponent as a favorite since 1996. Toronto is 0-10 ATS in home games versus horrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996. Bet the Bobcats Tuesday.
|04-02-12||Kansas v. Kentucky -6.5||Top||59-67||Win||100||11 h 45 m||Show|
20* Kansas/Kentucky NCAA Championship No-Brainer on Kentucky -6.5
I like the Kentucky Wildcats to roll tonight over the Kansas Jayhawks. Kentucky has been the best team in the country all year, and they'll cap it off with a win and cover tonight to give head coach John Calipari his first championship.
Kansas is very fortunate to be here having won three times by 3 points or less in the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, Kentucky has stormed through the field with five victories all by 8 points or more, and four by 12 points or more.
These teams faced each other back on November 15th earlier this season on a neutral court. Kentucky won that game 75-65 despite going just 16-of-29 (55.2 percent) from the free throw line and committing a whopping 19 turnovers. They had a sub-par performance and still won by 10 points.
Kansas is 6-15 ATS in road games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Jayhawks are 18-36 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in road games after a game where they covered the spread this season. Bet Kentucky Monday.
|04-02-12||Houston Rockets v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 186||99-93||Loss||-110||10 h 30 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Bulls UNDER 186
The Houston Rockets and Chicago Bulls will take part in a defensive battle tonight. These are two tired teams as both will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. With both teams playing on tired legs, the pace will be much slower than usual.
Both teams are without their best offensive players. The Bulls are without leading scorer Derrick Rose (22.8 points), while the Rockets are without their top two scorers in Kevin Martin (17.0 points) and Kyle Lowry (15.9 points).
The Rockets combined for 171 points against Dallas, 187 points against Memphis, and 186 points at the end of regulation against Indiana in their last three games, respectively. The Bulls combined for 175 points against Atlanta, 154 points against Detroit, and 170 points against Oklahoma City in their last three games, respectively.
Houston is 53-24 to the UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) - 2nd half of the season since 1996. The Bulls are 7-2 to the UNDER in their last nine games overall. The Rockets are 8-1 to the UNDER in their last nine games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.
|04-01-12||Golden State Warriors +10.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers||Top||112-120||Win||100||11 h 28 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +10.5
The Golden State Warriors are showing great value as a double-digit underdog to the Los Angeles Lakers Sunday. I almost always go against the Lakers when they're favored by double-digits, and that's certainly the case today.
Los Angeles had a bad habit of playing to their competition. They can beat the best teams in the league, but they can also lose to the worst. That was evident earlier this season as they lost to the Pistons and Wizards on back-to-back nights.
The Lakers are 1-10 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Golden State is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. Bet the Warriors Sunday.
|03-31-12||Ohio State -2.5 v. Kansas||Top||62-64||Loss||-104||125 h 49 m||Show|
25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State -2.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes are favored for a reason here against the Kansas Jayhawks. While these are two No. 2 seeds battling it out for a spot in the National Championship, I have no doubt that the Buckeyes are the superior team. That will show on the floor Saturday night.
Ohio State has played the more difficult schedule to get here, and they've been more impressive in doing so. They beat Loyola-MD (78-59), underrated Gonzaga (73-66), red hot Cincinnati (81-66) and top-seeded Syracuse (77-70) to reach this point. The Buckeyes got here in pretty convincing fashion to say the least.
For starters, Kansas essentially played home games in their first four contests. They played their first two in Omaha, Nebraska, beating Detroit 65-50 before squeaking by Purdue 63-60. They played their next two games in St. Louis, Missouri, topping NC State 60-57 before using a 12-0 run over the final few minutes to beat North Carolina 80-67. Oh yeah, the Tar Heels were playing without the nation's leader in assists in Kendall Marshall.
Ohio State matches up with Kansas very well. They have the best on-ball defender in the country in Aaron Craft (8.8 points, 4.7 assists, 2.5 steals) to slow down KU's Tyshawn Taylor, who is 0-for-17 from three-point range in the NCAA Tournament. Jared Sullinger (17.6 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 1.0 blocks) against Thomas Robinson (17.7 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 0.9 blocks) is essentially a wash, though I would take Sullinger myself.
Kansas did beat Ohio State at home 78-67 in their lone meeting this season, but Sullinger sat out that game with back spasms. Having Sullinger this time around is going to make all the difference. Robinson scored 21 points in that game only because Sullinger was not on the floor to help defend him.
Plus, KU does not have an answer for Deshaun Thomas (16.1 points) and William Buford (14.4 points). Buford put up 21 points in their first meeting, and Thomas added 19 points. These two mismatches that are hugely in Ohio State's favor are likely going to be the difference in why the Buckeyes move on.
The Jayhawks are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. Big Ten opponents. The Buckeyes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as a favorite. Ohio State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Kansas is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Bet Ohio State Saturday.
|03-31-12||Memphis Grizzlies v. Milwaukee Bucks -2.5||99-95||Loss||-110||11 h 45 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2.5
The Milwaukee Bucks have been rolling ever since trading for Monte Ellis. Getting them as a mere 2.5-point favorite tonight over Memphis is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. I'll take advantage.
The Bucks are 10-4 SU & 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They are coming off a 121-84 blowout win at Cleveland, which allowed them to rest their starters in the fourth quarter. That will be to their benefit tonight against a Memphis team that took Houston down to the wire last night, but eventually lost 89-98.
The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Memphis is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. I'll take these two 100% systems backing the Bucks straight to the bank tonight. Roll with Milwaukee Saturday.
|03-31-12||Louisville +9 v. Kentucky||Top||61-69||Win||100||122 h 49 m||Show|
20* Louisville/Kentucky Final Four No-Brainer on Louisville +9
The Louisville Cardinals are simply catching too many points against the Kentucky Wildcats in the Final Four Saturday. While John Calipari is the better recruiter with more talent on the floor, he's not the better coach. I'll back Rick Pitino with this much time to prepare almost every single time.
Pitino and the Cardinals actually have an extra day to get ready for Kentucky. Louisville played last Saturday, while Kentucky played on Sunday. I have no doubt that Pitino will use his time to prepare to come up with a better game plan than Calipari will.
Louisville has been on an absolute tear since finally getting healthy. They won four games in four days to win the Big East Tournament, beating three NCAA Tournament teams along the way. They then won four straight games in the big dance to get here, including a 57-44 victory over top-seeded Michigan State.
These teams played once already this season back on December 31st. Louisville came in as a 10-point underdog at Kentucky, yet only lost 62-69 while covering that huge number. That was back when the Cardinals weren't healthy, with guys playing through injury, while missing other players. Now healthy, and on a neutral court this time around, the Cardinals have an excellent chance to pull off this upset.
In that game back on December 31st, the Cardinals used their press to near perfection. Louisville limited Kentucky to 17-of-57 shooting (29.8 percent) for the game, including 3-of-16 (18.8 percent) from 3-point range. The Cardinals only shot 20-of-62 (32.3 percent) themselves, but this game was won at the free throw line. Louisville simply fouled too much, and Kentucky took advantage by making a whopping 32-of-43 from the free throw line. That allowed the Wildcats to overcome their 20 turnovers.
Look for the Cardinals to be smarter about the fouls this time around, while continuing to keep the Wildcats out of rhythm offensively. Louisville is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season. The Cardinals are 8-0 ATS in all neutral court games this season. Louisville is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These three trends make for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Cardinals. Take Louisville Saturday.
|03-30-12||Sacramento Kings v. Utah Jazz UNDER 214||Top||104-103||Win||100||9 h 59 m||Show|
25* Western Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Kings/Jazz UNDER 214
Oddsmakers have missed their mark with this total set tonight. I fully expect the Sacramento Kings and Utah Jazz to combine to finish in the 195-205 point range in this one. This total has been inflated, making it my strongest over/under play in the Western Conference this season.
Season averages alone show that this number has been set too high. Sacramento is scoring 98.3 points/game and giving up 103.8 points/game this season for an average combined score of 202.1 points/game. Utah is scoring 98.8 points/game and giving up 98.7 points/game for an average combined score of 197.5 points/game.
Looking at home/away numbers, and this total has been set even further off the mark. Sacramento is scoring 94.7 points/game and giving up 104.6 points/game on the road for an average combined score of 199.3 points/game. Utah is scoring 101.0 points/game and yielding 94.4 points/game at home for an average combined score of 195.4 points/game.
The Jazz and Kings have combined to score 211 or less points in 11 straight meetings, making for a perfect 11-0 system pertaining to tonight's total set. In their three meetings this season alone, the Jazz and Kings have combined for 189, 199 and 205 points, respectively. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|03-30-12||Detroit Pistons v. Chicago Bulls -11.5||71-83||Win||100||8 h 19 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -11.5
The Chicago Bulls have not missed a beat with Derrick Rose out of the line-up. The Bulls, who again expect to be without Rose, look to win their 14th straight over the Detroit Pistons on Friday night at the United Center. Chicago (41-11) is second in the NBA in scoring defense at 88.9 points per game, which is a big reason why they are 13-5 without Rose this season.
Detroit (18-32) is one of the league's lowest-scoring teams at 89.9 per game. In their most recent meeting Jan. 9, Chicago limited the Pistons to 39.4 percent shooting in a 92-68 home win. The Bulls also won at Detroit 99-83 five days earlier and have taken 13 straight in the series since Dec. 23, 2008.
Making matters worse for the Pistons is that they could be without starting guard Rodney Stuckey and backup Ben Gordon due to injuries. Stuckey, who hurt his left hamstring Wednesday, averages a team-best 16.1 points while Gordon averages 12.3. Stuckey is really the only reason this team has remained somewhat competitive, and without him they have no chance of keeping this one close.
Detroit has lost 11 straight in Chicago, with the last four defeats coming by an average of 20.0 points. The Pistons are only averaging 79.5 points/game in their last four contests, which doesn't bode well for them against the league's second-best defense. The Pistons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Take Chicago Friday.
|03-30-12||Philadelphia 76ers v. Washington Wizards +8.5||76-97||Win||100||8 h 30 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +8.5
While the Washington Wizards are among the league's worst teams again this season, this squad continues to fight. They only have 11 wins on the season, but the Wizards have been a much more competitive team since trading for Nene.
It hasn't shown in the win column as the Wizards are 0-5 in their last five games, but four of those five losses came by 4 points or less. Plus, four of those losses were against playoff teams in the Eastern Conference. They get another playoff team tonight in Philadelphia, and I fully expect Washington to give the 76ers a run for their money.
Philly is just 10-12 SU & 10-12 ATS on the road this season, and asking them to win by 9 points or more is simply asking too much tonight. Washington is 67-38 ATS after 5 or more consecutive losses since 1996. The 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with the Wizards Friday.
|03-29-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Lakers +1||102-93||Loss||-105||11 h 59 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1
The Los Angeles Lakers have certainly been in the media a lot lately due to some recent benchings of their star players. Kobe Bryant was benched in their 96-102 home loss to Memphis Sunday, but he responded well by going off for 30 points in a 104-101 victory at Golden State Tuesday. Bryant hit two clutch jumpers over the final 1:04 to give his team the win.
Andrew Bynum was benched for an ill-advised 3-pointer he shot near the end of the 3rd quarter in that win over the Warriors. He sat out the final nine minutes of the game, and didn't handle the benching will in the media. After Kobe led by example and responded with a great game against Golden State, I believe Bynum will follow in his footsteps and have a monster night against the Thunder to lead the Lakers to victory.
This is a huge game for L.A. to prove to Oklahoma City that they aren't going anywhere, and that they are still the team to beat in the West. Kobe and the Lakers certainly respond well in these "big" games. They just beat Miami earlier this month 93-83, and they are 3-0 against Dallas this season, the team that swept them in the playoffs last year. Look for L.A. to revenge their 100-85 road loss at Oklahoma City just before the All-Star Break.
The Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Oklahoma City is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Take the Lakers Thursday.
|03-29-12||Dallas Mavericks +8 v. Miami Heat||Top||85-106||Loss||-109||8 h 29 m||Show|
20* Mavericks/Heat NBA Finals Rematch on Dallas +8
Miami already had its "revenge game" against the defending champion Dallas Mavericks, who beat the Heat in the NBA Finals last year. The Heat would get their payback with a 105-94 road victory in Dallas on Christmas Day. While Miami certainly wants to beat Dallas again, they won't be as motivated as they were when they played on Christmas.
This line is simply inflated, and I don't see any way the Heat win this game by more than 8 points with the way they've been playing of late. Through March 1st, Miami was the highest-scoring team in the NBA at 103.8 points per game. Since then, the Heat are just 25th in the league at 93.1 points per game. Every team behind them is out of the playoff picture.
Miami is coming off back-to-back double-digit losses to Oklahoma City and Indiana by a combined 31 points. They just aren't playing well right now, and making matters worse is the fact that Lebron James just suffered a dislocated ring finger on his non-shooting hand. It happened against the Pacers, and it clearly affected him as he caught almost every pass with his right hand.
Dallas really, really needs this win tonight. The Mavericks are just two games ahead of ninth-place Denver in the Western Conference playoff race. That means they are in jeopardy of missing the playoffs if they don't get their act together quick. Dallas has done a good job of that with back-to-back wins over Houston, and they now come into this game well-rested having played just two games over the last five days.
The Mavericks are a sensational 31-11 ATS in their last 42 games as a road underdog. Dallas is 9-0 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Mavericks are 12-0 ATS off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons. Miami is 0-9 ATS in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference foes. These last four trends make for a perfect 34-0 system backing Dallas. Bet the Mavericks Thursday.
|03-29-12||Washington Wizards +10.5 v. Indiana Pacers||89-93||Win||100||7 h 29 m||Show|
15* Wizards/Pacers NBA Thursday No-Brainer on Washington +10.5
The Washington Wizards are showing great value tonight as a double-digit underdog to the Indiana Pacers. The biggest reason I'm on Washington is due to the status of the Pacers, who have to be extremely tired right now. Indiana is playing the second of a back-to-back, and their 6th game in 8 days.
The Pacers started to show signs of fatigue last night when they just didn't have it in an 84-100 loss at lowly New Jersey. They committed 18 turnovers, and gave up 100-plus points for the third time in four games. Indiana has given up 100 or more just 12 times, but seven of those came in its last 13 contests. The Pacers are 2-10 when surrendering triple digits.
While Washington is 0-4 since trading for Nene, there's no denying that they have been playing much better basketball. Three of those losses came by three points or fewer, and the Wizards are going to be hungry to get back in the win column tonight. It's nice to see that this team is still fighting, which is what I expect them to continue doing here.
This play falls into a system that is 38-13 (74.5%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home teams (INDIANA) - extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team. The Pacers are 9-26 ATS in their last 35 games playing on 0 days rest. Indiana is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with the Wizards Thursday.
|03-28-12||Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 194.5||86-103||Win||100||11 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Clippers UNDER 194.5
The Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Clippers have played in two low-scoring games already this month. Phoenix beat L.A. 81-78 for 159 combined points on March 2nd, and the Suns were victorious again by a final of 91-87 for 178 combined points on March 15th. I look for a similar low-scoring output tonight as these teams come nowhere near combining for 194.5.
Phoenix is a very tired team right now as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days. They won't be able to run the floor like they usually would.
The Clippers have been having a tough time putting up points since losing Chauncey Billups. L.A. has scored 97 or less points in 10 of their last 11 games overall, but they have defended well. The Clippers have given up 97 or less points in nine of those 11 contests as well. They'll control the tempo at home tonight, which will be a much slower pace than Phoenix is used to.
The UNDER is 23-10 in Suns last 33 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 5-0 in Clippers last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 8-1 in Clippers last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The UNDER is 7-1 in Clippers last 8 home games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in this series. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|03-28-12||Utah Jazz v. Boston Celtics -3.5||82-94||Win||100||8 h 36 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3.5
The Boston Celtics are showing solid value as a 3.5-point favorite tonight over the Utah Jazz. Utah is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to their impressive play of late. But now is the time to fade Utah as the value is clearly no longer with them.
Utah has won seven of their last eight, but this is a tired team right now. The Jazz will be playing their 5th game in 7 days, and one of those contests included a four-overtime game against Atlanta. I like the way the Celtics are playing of late, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. What's most impressive is that four of those five games were on the road.
The Jazz are just 8-17 on the road this season, while the Celtics are 17-8 at home. Boston is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These three trends make for a perfect 15-0 system backing Boston. Take the Celtics Wednesday.
|03-28-12||Orlando Magic -2 v. New York Knicks||Top||86-108||Loss||-102||7 h 6 m||Show|
20* Magic/Knicks ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Orlando -2
The Orlando Magic are showing great value as just a 2-point favorite against the short-handed New York Knicks tonight. Orlando is well-rested right now as this will be just their 2nd game in the last 5 days. They come in the fresher team, and the healthier squad as well.
The Knicks will be playing without Amar'e Stoudemire (back), Jeremy Lin (knee), Jared Jeffries (knee), and Bill Walker (elbow). Not to mention, Carmelo Anthony is banged up with a groin injury. He's expected to play tonight, but won't be at full strength.
The Magic are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Orlando is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. The Magic are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, winning all three by 10 points or more. Bet the Magic Wednesday.
|03-27-12||Houston Rockets v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 193.5||81-90||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Mavericks UNDER 193.5
I look for a defensive battle tonight between the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks in Western Conference action. The last two meetings in this series went to overtime, but both were defensive battles.
On 4/11/11, these teams were tied 86-86 at the end of regulation for 172 combined points. In their lone meeting this season on 3/24/12 just three nights ago, these teams were tied 91-91 at the end of regulation for 182 combined points. I don't see this game finishing anywhere near the 193.5-point total.
Houston is a tired team as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. Each of their last two games went to overtime, so this squad is running on fumes. Plus, the Rockets are already short-handed without their top two scorers in Kevin Martin (17.0 PPG) and Kyle Lowry (15.9 PPG) due to injury.
Dallas and their opponents are combining to average 188.3 points/game this season. The Mavs have become more a defensive-minded team since the playoffs last year. They give up just 92.3 points/game at home on 42.5 percent shooting.
The Mavs are 8-1 to the UNDER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. The UNDER is 7-1 in Rockets last 8 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. The UNDER is 8-3 in Rockets last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|03-27-12||Atlanta Hawks v. Milwaukee Bucks -2||101-108||Win||100||9 h 39 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2
Milwaukee had won six straight before losing three of their last four to playoff teams in Boston, Indiana and New York. If the Bucks want to be a playoff team, they know they cannot afford to lose many more games down the stretch as they trail the Knicks by 2.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East.
I believe the Bucks get back on track tonight and buckle down at home against the Atlanta Hawks. I certainly like the way this team is playing with the addition of Monte Ellis. They now have numerous guards that can penetrate the lane and either score themselves, or find open teammates. Milwaukee has been scoring at will, putting up 104-plus points in nine of their last 11.
Atlanta has won four straight coming in. With a game against the East-leading Chicago Bulls lined up for tomorrow, this is a huge letdown spot for the Hawks. They are feeling good about their four-overtime victory over Utah a couple nights ago, which was the first 4 OT game since 1997. Off such a historical accomplishment, it'd be easy to see Atlanta come out flat here. Plus, the Bucks want revenge from two 5-point losses to the Hawks this season, so they'll be the more motivated team.
Atlanta is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games after allowing 120 points or more. The Hawks are 14-28 ATS in their last 42 following 2 or more consecutive wins. The Bucks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The favorite is 17-8-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Take Milwaukee Tuesday.
|03-27-12||Massachusetts +2.5 v. Stanford||Top||64-74||Loss||-101||8 h 34 m||Show|
20* NIT Final Four PLAY OF THE DAY on Massachusetts +2.5
The Massachusetts Minutemen have been the most impressive team in the NIT to this point. I don't think there's any way they should be an underdog to the Stanford Cardinal in this one. UMass is going to have a solid home-court advantage, though they haven't needed it to get here.
UMass has pulled off three straight upsets on the road to get to Madison Square Garden. The Minutemen won 101-96 at Mississippi State as a 7-point dog, 77-67 at Seton Hall as a 6.5-point dog, and 72-70 at Drexel as a 7.5-point dog. They had to come back from a huge deficit against Drexel, and that comeback win has this team believing they won't be denied.
Stanford has had a much easier path to get here. The Cardinals have won three straight home games against Cleveland State, Illinois State and Nevada. I don't believe one of those teams is as good as any of the three teams that UMass has faced.They even needed overtime to beat Illinois State. Stanford is 17-3 at home this season, but just 5-6 on the road. The Cardinal won't be playing with nearly as much confidence knowing that they'll essentially be the road team in this one.
The Minutemen are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. UMass is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. Stanford is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win. The Cardinal are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Bet Massachusetts Tuesday.
|03-26-12||Pittsburgh v. Washington State +1||66-67||Win||100||10 h 7 m||Show|
15* Pitt/WSU CBI Tournament Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington State +1
Both the Pittsburgh Panthers and Washington State Cougars have played very well to reach the CBI Tournament Championship Series. Both have won three games in a row to get here, but I have been more impressed with Washington State's path. Game 1 of this Best of 3 series will be played on the Cougars' home floor tonight.
Washington State has had to go on the road to pick up two very impressive wins as underdogs to get here. The Cougars opened with an 89-75 victory at San Francisco as a 5.5-point underdog. They would beat Wyoming 61-41 at home as a 2-point favorite before going on the road and knocking off Oregon State 72-55 as a 6.5-point underdog. As you can see, they have won each game by 14-plus points.
Pittsburgh opened with two very easy opponents at home with a 81-63 victory over Wofford followed by a 82-61 triumph over Princeton. They did beat Butler 68-62 on the road in their last game, but the Bulldogs are way down this season as it has been a rebuilding year for them. I believe Pittsburgh meets its match tonight in Washington State.
The Cougars are 11-4 at home, while the Panthers are just 4-8 in true road games this year. Washington State is 10-2 ATS in home games after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons, winning in this spot by an average of 14.4 points/game. The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Roll with Washington State Monday.
|03-26-12||Sacramento Kings v. Houston Rockets UNDER 209.5||106-113||Loss||-110||8 h 12 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Rockets UNDER 209.5
Oddsmakers have really inflated this total tonight between the Sacramento Kings and Houston Rockets. This will be just the second meeting between these Western Conference foes. The first resulted in a 103-89 home victory for Houston and 192 combined points, and I expect a similar scoring output here tonight.
Houston is without their top two scorers in Kevin Martin (17.0 PPG) and Kyle Lowry (15.9 PPG). That's a lot of production to be missing. Houston and their opponents have combined for 207 or less points in six of their last seven games. They have topped the 200-point mark just twice during this stretch.
The Rockets are 10-2 to the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season. Houston is 18-6 to the UNDER in home games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite since 1996. Sacramento is 63-36 to the UNDER off a road loss against a division rival since 1996. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.
|03-26-12||Milwaukee Bucks +6 v. New York Knicks||Top||80-89||Loss||-108||8 h 43 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee Bucks +6
The Milwaukee Bucks are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are simply catching too many points tonight against the overrated New York Knicks. The Bucks are in 9th place in the Eastern Conference, just 1.5 games behind the Knicks for the eighth and final playoff spot. They certainly want this game more than most.
Milwaukee has won seven of their last nine games overall. Better yet, the Bucks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 contests. Since trading for Monte Ellis, this has been a completely different team. The Bucks are scoring at will now, putting up 104-plus points in nine of their last 10 games overall.
New York is playing well of late too, winning six of their last seven. However, this team has played a very easy schedule during this stretch, and they have not fared well recently against the Bucks. Milwaukee is 8-1 SU & a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings with New York.
The Knicks are 1-10 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season. The Bucks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Throw in the fact that the Bucks are 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Knicks, and we have a combined 26-1 (96%) system backing Milwaukee. Bet the Bucks Monday.
|03-25-12||Memphis Grizzlies +7 v. Los Angeles Lakers||102-96||Win||100||14 h 39 m||Show|
15* Grizzlies/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +7
I'm always looking to fade the Los Angeles Lakers when they're getting this kind of respect from oddsmakers. While this team has been great at home this year, they should not be favored by seven points over the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.
Memphis is 25-6 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. This is a deep team that handles these situations very well. The Lakers are 16-31 ATS in home games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Grizzlies are 32-13-1 ATS in their last 46 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Lakers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Roll with the Grizzlies Sunday.
|03-25-12||Kansas v. North Carolina +2||80-67||Loss||-110||8 h 9 m||Show|
15* Kansas/UNC Elite Eight No-Brainer on North Carolina +2
The UNC Tar Heels get the nod Sunday as an underdog to the Kansas Jayhawks. Even without Kendall Marshall, I believe the Tar Heels are the better team here and it will show on the court today.
Kansas' biggest strength is their inside game with Thomas Robinson. UNC has a better post game than Kansas with the likes of Tyler Zeller and John Henson. These two are an unstoppable force inside.
The Jayhawks are now 2-11 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. Kansas is 4-12 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season. Kansas is 2-10 ATS versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. The Jayhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take UNC Sunday.
|03-25-12||Baylor +8 v. Kentucky||Top||70-82||Loss||-110||5 h 25 m||Show|
20* Baylor/Kentucky Elite Eight PLAY OF THE DAY on Baylor +8
The Baylor Bears are showing great value here Sunday. This is actually a great match-up for them. Baylor is usually the most athletic team when they take the court. Kentucky is the only team in the country that rivals Baylor's athleticism.
Look for the Bears to give the Wildcats all they can handle here. They have been one of the best teams in the tournament with wins over South Dakota State, Colorado and Xavier. I fully expect them to stay within eight points of the Wildcats in this one.
The Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Baylor is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. Kentucky is 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. Bet Baylor Sunday.
|03-24-12||Toronto Raptors +13 v. Chicago Bulls||101-102||Win||100||9 h 30 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors +13
The Chicago Bulls are getting way too much love tonight. Toronto wants this game more, and as a result they'll easily stay within this 13-point spread, likely winning outright.
These teams just played three days ago on March 21st with the Bulls winning 94-82 despite the Raptors leading almost the entire way. Toronto blew it late, and now they want revenge. Chicago will be playing with Derrick Rose once again, and they cannot possibly cover this inflated number.
The Raptors are a very profitable 15-4 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. Toronto is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater. Roll with the Raptors Saturday.
|03-24-12||Ohio State -2.5 v. Syracuse||Top||77-70||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
20* Ohio State/Syracuse Elite Eight PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio State -2.5
Ohio State is a match-up nightmare for Syracuse. With Fab Melo suspended for the entire NCAA Tournament, the Orange have nobody who can guard Jared Sullinger. He's in line for a monster games as the Buckeyes march on to the Final Four.
Syracuse is 2-9 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game over the last 2 seasons. The loss of Fab Melo hasn't hurt them yet in the tournament, but they're finally against a team where his loss will be felt.
The Orange are 0-6 ATS in a neutral court game where the total is 135 to 139.5 over the last 3 seasons. Syracuse is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Bet Ohio State Saturday.
|03-24-12||Florida v. Louisville +1.5||68-72||Win||100||6 h 55 m||Show|
15* Louisville/Florida Elite Eight No-Brainer on Louisville +1.5
The Louisville Cardinals should not be an underdog to the seventh-seeded Cardinals. Louisville is showing excellent value here Saturday in a game I believe they'll win outright. Florida has had a nice run, but they run into a buzz saw this afternoon.
Few teams in the country are playing as well as Louisville. This team was beat up all season with injuries, but they finally got healthy towards the end of the year and started to play up to their potential. As a result, they won the Big East Tournament and have won seven straight coming in.
Louisville is 7-0 ATS in all neutral court games this season. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games this season. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Louisville is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. These four trends make for a 28-0 system backing the Cardinals. Take Louisville Saturday.
|03-23-12||Portland Trail Blazers +9 v. Los Angeles Lakers||96-103||Win||100||11 h 18 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Portland Trail Blazers +9
Any time the Los Angeles Lakers are this big of a favorite, I look to fade them. I did so with success just a few games back. They were an 11-point home favorite against Utah, but lost 99-103 less than a week ago on March 18th.
This is a team that I follow closely. I know that the Lakers always seem to play to their competition. They can look great against the best teams in the league, but they can also look terrible against some of the worst teams in the game. Recent examples of that are upset losses to Detroit and Washington in consecutive nights. They also lost to Utah and Houston in back-to-back games as favorites.
Portland has been going through a tough stretch of late, which has them undervalued right now. I still believe this team has better talent than over half of the teams in the league, and it's only a matter of time before they figure it out. Portland took a step in the right direction last night with a 97-93 home victory over Memphis. They'll be motivated to see if they can beat the Lakers here tonight.
The Lakers are 6-15 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season. Portland is 20-8 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons. The Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Bet Portland Friday.
|03-23-12||NC State +8 v. Kansas||Top||57-60||Win||100||105 h 42 m||Show|
20* NC State/Kansas Sweet 16 Late-Night BAILOUT on NC State +8
The NC State Wolfpack are one of the most underrated teams left in the field. They have been playing for their NCAA Tournament lives since a 77-73 victory over Miami back on February 29th. This team won their final two games of the regular season, then won two games in the ACC Tournament to solidify their spot in the big dance.
What impressed me more than anything was NC State's 67-69 loss to North Carolina in the ACC Tournament semifinals. That loss showed that the Wolfpack could play with anyone. After beating San Diego State and Georgetown in the first two rounds of the big dance, they are now 6-1 in their last seven games overall.
Kansas needed some fortunate breaks down the stretch of their last game just to make it to the Sweet 16. Despite coming in as an 8-point underdog, Purdue gave the Jayhawks all they could handle. Kansas eventually prevailed 63-60. That close win, coupled with a 72-81 loss to Baylor in the Big 12 Tournament, shows their vulnerability. Asking the Jayhawks to cover 8 points is simply asking too much here.
NC State is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Wolfpack are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. NC State is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. NC State is 7-0 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season. These five trends make for a perfect 31-0 system backing the Wolfpack. Bet NC State Friday.
|03-23-12||Ohio +10.5 v. North Carolina||65-73||Win||100||102 h 52 m||Show|
15* Ohio/UNC Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Ohio +10.5
The Ohio Bobcats have been the biggest surprise in the tournament thus far. It shouldn't come as too big of a surprise though considering how well this team played early in the year. Ohio opened 12-1 with their only loss coming at then-No. 7 Louisville by a final of 54-59. While they are a No. 13 seed, this team is playing more like one of the top seeds in the tournament.
Ohio features two stud guards in D.J. Cooper (14.9 points, 5.7 assists, 2.3 steals) and Walter Offutt (12.0 points, 1.6 steals) who can carry this team. Cooper has scored 40 points and Offutt has put up 32 in two NCAA Tournament games. The Bobcats will actually have the advantage at the guard positions in this game due to the health of UNC point guard Kendall Marshall.
Marshall, the nation's leading assist man, suffered a fractured wrist in UNC's victory over Creighton last round. While it's possible he may play, it is very unlikely. Even if he does go, Marshall will not be at 100% and will likely be hurting his team by being out there.
Freshman Stilman White (4.3 minutes per game) and senior Justin Watts (only two stints at point guard this season) would be first in line to replace Marshall as UNC
|03-22-12||Cincinnati +7.5 v. Ohio State||66-81||Loss||-105||80 h 52 m||Show|
15* Sweet 16 Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati +7.5
There is no team that I have been riding more lately than the Cincinnati Bearcats. Somehow, some way this team continues to go under the radar. The Bearcats have been a determined, focused bunch ever since their ugly brawl with Xavier back in December. They are the sleeper of the 16 teams left in the big dance.
Cincinnati got their momentum for the NCAA Tournament by making it all the way to the Big East Championship, knocking off the likes of Georgetown and Syracuse along the way. They carried that momentum over into the NCAA Tournament with wins over Texas and Florida State in their first two games.
What I really like about this team is the way that they are set up. They have exactly what it takes to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. The Bearcats have three stud guards in Sean Kilpatrick (14.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.4 steals), Dion Dixon (13.1 points, 1.6 steals), and Cashmere Wright (10.7 points, 4.6 assists, 2.1 steals).
I have no doubt in my mind that the Bearcats have the better guards in this match-up with Ohio State. What also makes this a great match-up for Cincinnati is the fact that they have a center who can contain Jared Sullinger of the Buckeyes. Yancy Gates (12.4 points, 9.1 rebounds) has been playing at a very high level for weeks, and he'll hold his own against Sullinger.
The Bearcats are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. The Bearcats are 9-1 ATS in road games after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season. Cincinnati is 9-1 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The Buckeyes are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. Roll with Cincinnati Thursday.
|03-22-12||Boston Celtics v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 201||100-91||Win||100||11 h 6 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Total ANNIHILATOR on Celtics/Bucks UNDER 201
Oddsmakers have missed their mark badly with this total set tonight. Any time you have the Boston Celtics in a game and the total is over 200 points, you should automatically think take the UNDER. That's precisely what I'm doing here in a game that I believe will be played in the 180's.
The reason this total is set so high is because Milwaukee has been scoring at will of late against some of the worst defensive teams in the league. The Bucks have scored over 100 points in seven straight games against the likes of the Blazers, Warriors, Cavaliers, Nets, Raptors, Knicks and Bulls. Only one of those teams plays defense at an above-average level, and that is the Bulls.
Boston will be determined to put an end to that 100 points streak as they are one of the few teams in the league that takes pride in their defense. The Celtics give up just 90.6 points/game and 42.6 percent shooting this year. Boston is also having trouble offensively, especially away from home where they are scoring a mere 89.4 points/game. Boston games are averaging a combined 181.7 points/game this season, nearly 20 points below this posted total.
In their last 12 meetings dating back to 2008, Boston and Milwaukee have combined to score 201 or less points at the end of regulation all 12 times. That's an 11-0-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|03-22-12||Wisconsin v. Syracuse -4||Top||63-64||Loss||-107||77 h 23 m||Show|
25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Syracuse -4
The Syracuse Orange should be a much bigger favorite tonight over the Wisconsin Badgers. This team has been undervalued ever since it was stated that Fab Melo would be ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. They showed against Kansas State in the Round of 32 that they could be just as dominant as they have been all season.
The Orange throttled the Wildcats 75-59, making 51.1 percent of their shots while limiting K-State to just 31.3 percent shooting. Syracuse (33-2) certainly doesn't get the respect that every other No. 1 seed gets. That's evident by the fact that all the other No. 1 seeds are at least a 7-point favorite in this round.
There's a reason why Bo Ryan and his Wisconsin Badgers rarely ever make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. That's because they have to win ugly to win at all. That style rarely works against top-notch teams like Syracuse, who can push the pace and control the tempo with their athleticism. The Orange are scoring 10.5 more points/game than Wisconsin, and their athleticism will overwhelm the Badgers in this one.
Syracuse is 26-9 ATS in road games after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less since 1997. The Orange are 28-13 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997. Syracuse is 41-16 ATS in road games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game since 1997. Bet the Orange Thursday.
|03-21-12||Nevada +7 v. Stanford||Top||56-84||Loss||-110||11 h 31 m||Show|
20* Nevada/Stanford NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Nevada +7
The Nevada Wolf Pack are showing great value tonight as a 7-point underdog to the Stanford Cardinal. This team has not been getting much respect all season despite their 28-6 record. I believe they have a great chance of winning this game outright, let alone covering seven points.
Nevada was definitely a sleeper coming into the season as they returned five starters from last year. This experienced bunch would love nothing more than a trip to Madison Square Garden to play in the NIT semifinals, which is what's at stake tonight.
Nevada has looked like a team on a mission in their first two NIT games. They won at Oral Robers 68-59 as a 6.5-point underdog, then took care of a very good Bucknell team 75-67 at home as a 3.5-point favorite. They now face a Stanford team that was shaky last round in their 92-88 home victory over Illinois State as a 8.5-point favorite.
Nevada is a perfect 9-0 ATS as a road underdog this season. The Wolf Pack are actually outscoring their opposition 73.9 to 67.8 in this spot. Nevada is 9-0 ATS in road games after 3 straight games where opponent grabbed 31 or less rebounds since 1997. Stanford is in home games after a combined score of 155 points or more over the last 3 seasons. These three trends make for a perfect 24-0 system backing the Wolf Pack. Bet Nevada Wednesday.
|03-21-12||Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5 v. Atlanta Hawks||102-103||Win||100||9 h 36 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers should not be this big of an underdog to the Atlanta Hawks tonight in a game I believe they can win outright. Cleveland will be the more motivated team due to events leading up to this game. Atlanta is in a huge letdown spot tonight.
Atlanta has won six straight over Cleveland, including a 103-87 victory on March 18th just three nights ago. With a rematch occurring in such a short amount of time, I have no doubt that the Cavaliers are going to be hungry for payback. Look for Atlanta to be 'disinterested' when they take the floor after winning six in a row over Cleveland.
This play falls into a system that is 22-6 (78.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (CLEVELAND) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off an embarrassing home loss scoring less than 80 points.
The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. The Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Atlanta is 4-17 ATS in home games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. The road team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Roll with the Cavaliers Wednesday.
|03-21-12||New York Knicks v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 192.5||82-79||Win||100||8 h 6 m||Show|
15* Knicks/76ers ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 192.5
The New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers play in a crucial Atlantic Division showdown tonight. New York trails Philly by four games, and I expect both teams to be laying it all on the line tonight. In my opinion, that will lead to a defensive battle as points will be hard to come by.
The Knicks have won four straight games to get within striking distance of the 76ers. They've done so with tremendous defense, holding their last four opponents to an average of just 88.5 points/game. Interim head coach Mike Woodson has put an emphasis on playing better defense, and his players have certainly responded.
Philadelphia is one of the best defensive teams in the league this season. They limit opponents to just 87.7 points/game overall, including 84.2 points/game at home. Considering Philly only averages 93.7 points/game at home, they are combining with their opponents to average 177.9 points/game in all home games. That's a far cry from the 192.5-point total set tonight.
The 76ers are 23-8 to the UNDER in their last 31 home games, and the Knicks are 20-8 to the UNDER in their last 28 road games. Phillly is 9-1 to the UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The UNDER is 20-6 in Knicks last 26 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 20-6 in 76ers last 26 games as a home favorite. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|03-20-12||Milwaukee Bucks v. Portland Trail Blazers -4||116-87||Loss||-103||12 h 22 m||Show|
15* Bucks/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -4
The Portland Trail Blazers should be a bigger favorite tonight at home against the Milwaukee Bucks. A big reason this line is so small is because of Portland's recent struggles. Another reason is that Milwaukee added Monte Ellis recently. The value is to the point where pulling the trigger on Portland is the only move tonight.
The Blazers have already started playing better since firing head coach Nate McMillan and replacing him with interim coach Kaleb Canales. They went on the road and beat the Chicago Bulls 100-89 before going on the road to lose to the Oklahoma City Thunder. After facing two of the league's best teams, the Bucks will seem like a cake walk tonight.
Milwaukee is playing very well recently, winners of five straight. That's why oddsmakers are giving the Bucks so much respect tonight. However, all five of those wins came against teams with losing records. They beat New York, Toronto, New Jersey, Cleveland and Golden State during this stretch. I'm not buying that this is a lot better team just because they added Ellis.
The Bucks have dropped eight of nine to the Blazers, including five straight on the road by 12.6 points per contest. Milwaukee is 1-13 ATS against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Bucks are 15-29 ATS in their last 44 vs. Western Conference foes. Milwaukee is 43-70 ATS in their last 113 after 3 or more consecutive wins. The Blazers are 16-7 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Take Portland Tuesday.
|03-20-12||Massachusetts +6.5 v. Drexel||Top||72-70||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Massachusetts +6.5
UMass is showing great value tonight as a 6.5-point underdog to Drexel in the NIT. This team has saved their best basketball for this tournament, and I would not be surprised one bit to see them pull off yet another upset Tuesday.
The Minutemen were one of the NCAA Tournament snubs this season as they came from one of the most underrated conferences in the country in the Atlantic 10. They currently sit at 24-11 on the season after winning at Mississippi State 101-96 as a 7-point underdog and at Seton Hall 77-67 as a 6.5-point underdog in the first two rounds.
Drexel has an amazing record at 29-6, but the fact of the matter is that they played in one of the worst conferences in the country in the Colonial Athletic. They barely beat Northern Iowa 65-63 at home as a 7-point favorite in their last game to advance to this point. The Dragons are not as good as their record would indicate.
Common opponents is a great way to compare teams. When doing so, I find that UMass and Drexel have played three of the same teams this season. UMass went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against those teams, outscoring them by 11.0 points/game. Drexel went 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS against those teams, outscoring them by 10.8 points/game. One of those teams was Towson (1-31), who Drexel got to play twice an outscored them by an average of 20.5 points/game.
The Minutemen are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. CAA foes. UMass is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Minutemen are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. Drexel is 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games after a close win by 3 points or less. Bet UMass Tuesday.
|03-19-12||Wyoming v. Washington State -2.5||Top||41-61||Win||100||11 h 10 m||Show|
20* Wyoming/Washington St. CBI Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington State -2.5
The Washington State Cougars are showing great value today as a small home favorite over the Wyoming Cowboys. I like their chances in this CBI Tournament against a Wyoming team that comes from a weak Mountain West Conference.
Wyoming somewhat showed that they didn't want to be here in this CBI Tournament as they barely beat North Dakota State 78-75 despite being a 9.5-point favorite. It was one of their most sloppy games of the season as they committed 17 turnovers and only forced 9.
Meanwhile, Washington State put together one of their most impressive wins of the season in the opening round. The Cougars won 89-75 at San Francisco as a 5.5-point underdog to show that they want to be playing in this tournament.
Washington State is a very solid 10-4 at home this season, while Wyoming is just 5-8 in true road games. The Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Pac-12 foes. Wyoming is 9-25 ATS after a home game where both teams scored 75 points or more since 1997. Bet Washington State Monday.
|03-19-12||Philadelphia 76ers v. Charlotte Bobcats +9||105-80||Loss||-110||8 h 15 m||Show|
15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Bobcats +9
The Charlotte Bobcats are showing some of their best value of the season Monday as a 9-point home underdog to the Philadelphia 76ers. The betting public refuses to back this team with any regularity because they own the league's worst record. Now is the time to ride Charlotte.
The Bobcats have finally gotten healthy, which means they are a much better team than they were in the first half. Charlotte has quietly gone 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall. They have covered two in a row with impressive showings at Dallas (96-101 loss) and versus Toronto (107-103 victory).
Philly is not playing well right now as they are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. They did play some tough games during this stretch, but they were not even really competitive. The 76ers lost at Indiana 94-111, versus Miami 78-84, and at Chicago 80-89. After playing three of the best teams in the East, the 76ers are going to have a hard time getting up for Charlotte mentally.
The 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Bobcats are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home meetings with the 76ers. The home team has won 8 of the last 10 in this series. Roll with the Bobcats Monday.
|03-18-12||Cincinnati +3 v. Florida State||Top||62-56||Win||100||15 h 50 m||Show|
20* Cincinnati/FSU CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Cincinnati +3
I have been riding the Cincinnati Bearcats for a while now as they continue to go under the radar. They are undervalued once again Sunday against a Florida State team that should not be favored.
Cincinnati is rolling, winners of five of their last six. They made the championship game of the Big East Tournament before losing to Louisville. This team has everything you need to make a run in the tournament. They have three stud guards and a beast of a center in Yancy Gates.
The Bearcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. FSU is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games as a favorite. Bet Cincinnati Sunday.
|03-18-12||Utah Jazz +11 v. Los Angeles Lakers||103-99||Win||100||14 h 29 m||Show|
15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah Jazz +11
I always look to fade the Los Angeles Lakers whenever they are favored by double-digits. They are notorious for playing down to their competition, which means it is very tough for them to blow out teams that they are supposed to.
Utah has been playing well lately as they have won three of their last four games, including back-to-back wins over the Timberwolves and Warriors. The Lakers have only beaten the Jazz by more than 11 points once in their last five meetings.
The Lakers are 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season. The Jazz are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. L.A. is 17-42 ATS in their last 59 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater. Roll with the Jazz Sunday.
|03-18-12||NC State +4.5 v. Georgetown||66-63||Win||100||5 h 9 m||Show|
15* NC State/Georgetown Early ANNIHILATOR on NC State +4.5
The NC State Wolfpack have saved their best basketball for last. This is a scary team and one that could definitely make a deep run. I don't believe Georgetown should be favored in a game that I see the Wolfpack winning outright.
NC State has won five of their last six games. They knocked off Boston College and Virginia in the ACC Tournament, two games they really had to have to get off the bubble and into the Big Dance. Even more impressive is their 67-69 loss to North Carolina in the semifinals, proving they can play with anyone.
NC State is 9-1 ATS in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The Wolfpack are 6-0 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season. Take NC State Sunday.
|03-17-12||New Mexico v. Louisville -1||56-59||Win||100||19 h 21 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Louisville -1
New Mexico is a joke. They had a nice season, but they are getting way too much respect in the NCAA Tournament. The Cardinals are on of the most underrated teams in the big dance. It will show on the floor Saturday.
Louisville has won five straight games. They won four in four days to win the Big East Tournament, then took care of an underrated Davidson team 69-62 in their first game of the big dance. Now they get New Mexico, and they'll be ready to advance against a team that has been overrated all year.
Louisville is 9-2 ATS when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Louisville is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. Bet Louisville.
|03-17-12||Golden State Warriors +7 v. Utah Jazz||92-99||Push||0||19 h 35 m||Show|
15* Warriors/Jazz NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +7
The Golden State Warriors are one of the most underrate teams I've ever seen. They are playing their best basketball of the season, yet they still get no respect. They should not be a 7-point underdog to the Utah Jazz today.
These two teams have played twice this season. Utah won in Golden State by a single point, but the Warriors would have their revenge with an 18-point victory at Utah. The third meeting between these teams will come down to the wire, and I'll take the dog every time.
The Warriors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. Golden State is 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference foes. The Jazz are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. Roll with the Warriors Saturday.
|03-17-12||Iowa State +11 v. Kentucky||Top||71-87||Loss||-100||17 h 26 m||Show|
20* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Iowa State +11
I've been on Iowa State all season. Somehow, this team continues to go under the radar. They got screwed on getting a No. 8 seed to say the least. ISU finished 3rd in the Big 12 during the regular season. The Big 12 was named the second-best conference in the country. ISU has been using all this as motivation all along.
I would not be surprised to see ISU beat Kentucky, but I'll take the points for some insurance. ISU is as talented as the Wildcats, who have been overrated for weeks. The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games, and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games.
Iowa State is 9-1 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game over the last 2 seasons. Kentucky is 8-15 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Iowa State is 10-1 ATS on Saturday games this season. Kentucky is 4-16 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|03-16-12||Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers||92-97||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5
Any time the Lakers are this heavy of a favorite, I usually look to fade. They always play down to their competition. Minnesota wants revenge from two losses against the Lakers in this head-to-head series to start the season.
The Lakers will be disinterested after already beating the Timberwolves twice. Minnesota will be the more motivated team, which makes them a great play tonight.
Minnesota is 24-9 ATS in road games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons. The Lakers are 14-27 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Timberwolves Friday.
|03-16-12||Detroit +14.5 v. Kansas||50-65||Loss||-105||45 h 25 m||Show|
15* Detroit/Kansas Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Detroit +14.5
I've seen the Detroit Titans play a few times this year, and they certainly pass the eye test. While Kansas is a quality team, this isn't as talented of a Jayhawks' team as we've seen in the past. Detroit will give Kansas a run for their money tonight.
The Titans were unbeatable down the stretch, winning five straight and 10 of their last 11 coming in. They capped their season off with an emphatic 70-50 victory over Valparaiso in the Horizon League Championship. After watching that game, I believe the Titans can play with anyone.
Detroit is a very balanced team with five players averaging in double figures scoring. They are also one of the most athletic teams in the country, and you'll see them playing above the rim against the Jayhawks. The Titans are led by coach's son Ray McCallum, a sophomore point guard who leads the team in points (15.6), assists (3.9) and steals (1.5). He is their leader despite being just a sophomore.
After seeing Detroit's athleticism, oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring game, which isn't good news for Kansas. The Jayhawks are just 1-9 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. The Titans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater. Take Detroit Friday.
|03-16-12||NC State -2 v. San Diego St||79-65||Win||100||36 h 50 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on NC State -2
The NC State Wolfpack are a dangerous team entering the 2012 NCAA Tournament. Despite being a No. 11 seed, I wouldn't be surprised to see this team in the Sweet 16. They have saved their best basketball for last, and I have them knocking off San Diego State Friday.
This spread tells it all. NC State is the 11-seed while SDSU is the 6-seed, yet the Wolfpack are actually favored. They are favored here for a good reason as they are simply the better team. SDSU had a good season, but they didn't play near the competition that NC State did.
NC State was playing in elimination games ever since a 77-73 win over Miami on February 29th. This team needed to keep winning to make the NCAA Tournament, and that's exactly what they did. The Wolfpack would win four straight over Miami, VA Tech, Boston College and Virginia before a 67-69 loss to North Carolina in the ACC semifinals. That defeat showed they could play with anyone.
The Wolfpack are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. NC State is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. NC State is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Wolfpack are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite. NC State is 6-0 ATS in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season. These five trends make for a 23-0 system backing the Wolfpack. Roll with NC State Friday.
|03-16-12||Texas v. Cincinnati -2||Top||59-65||Win||100||35 h 26 m||Show|
25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati -2
The Cincinnati Bearcats represent my favorite play for the Round of 64 games. This is a team that I believe is coming into the NCAA Tournament way under the radar, and I would not be surprised to see them make a deep run.
The Bearcats got into an ugly Brawl with Xavier on December 10th, and they have been a completely different team ever since. Cincinnati went on to win seven straight and 10 of their next 11 after that incident.
Cincinnati showed very well in the Big East tournament, beating both Georgetown and Syracuse before losing to Louisville in the championship game. All three of those teams have a 4 seed or better in the NCAA Tournament. Cincinnati can play with anyone as they have three stud guards, and a playmaker at center in Yancy Gates.
Texas was lucky to even get into the NCAA Tournament with a 20-13 record. I actually believe they don't belong. The Longhorns are a very inexperienced team as they returned zero starters from last season. They are too reliant upon freshman, and as a result it's going to be one and done for them.
The Longhorns are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. The Bearcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite. Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in their last six games overall. These three trends make for a 16-2 (89%) system backing the Bearcats. Bet Cincinnati Friday.
|03-15-12||Colorado +5.5 v. UNLV||Top||68-64||Win||100||22 h 42 m||Show|
20* Colorado/UNLV Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado +5.5
The Colorado Buffaloes have been underrated all season. I like their chances of pulling off the upset tonight against UNLV in the Round of 64. The Buffaloes won the Pac-12 Tournament by winning four games in four days, and they now come in with a lot of momentum.
UNLV went just 4-4 down the stretch, and they have clearly been overrated since making a splash early in the season in non-conference play. The Runnin' Rebels are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Their failure against the spread just shows how overvalued this team has been.
The Buffaloes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games as an underdog. Colorado is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games. UNLV is 0-6 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season. Bet Colorado Thursday.
|03-15-12||Oklahoma City Thunder +1 v. Denver Nuggets||103-90||Win||100||20 h 17 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder +1
Any time you can get the Oklahoma City Thunder as an underdog, it's probably worth pulling the trigger. I believe that's especially the case tonight against the overmatched Denver Nuggets. The Thunder have been one of the best teams in the league to back following a loss.
The Thunder are 32-10 on the season as they own the best record in the Western Conference. They have only lost back-to-back games once all season, which really shows the character of this team. Coming off a 103-104 home loss to Houston two nights ago, the Thunder are going to be out for blood tonight.
Oklahoma City is 52-24-1 ATS in their last 77 games following a S.U. loss. The Thunder are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Nuggets are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. OKC is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games off a home loss. Roll with the Thunder Thursday.
|03-15-12||Colorado St v. Murray State -4.5||41-58||Win||100||11 h 27 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Early ANNIHILATOR on Murray State -4.5
Murray State is a team that continues to get no respect from oddsmakers. They should be a much heavier favorite today over Colorado State, a team that doesn't even belong in the NCAA Tournament. Murray State certainly belongs with a 30-1 record, and they should have been given a better seed.
I look for the Racers to come out on a mission to prove their doubters wrong. They don't get the love they deserve simply because they play in the Ohio Valley. But Murray State has beaten four NCAA Tournament teams in Southern Miss, Western Kentucky, Memphis and St. Mary's. This team is the real deal.
Murray State is 9-1 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games this season. The Racers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Murray State is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 non conference games. These three trends make for a 20-1 (95%) system backing the Racers. Take Murray State Thursday.
|03-14-12||Boston Celtics v. Golden State Warriors +4.5||105-103||Win||100||11 h 0 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +4.5
The Golden State Warriors should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Boston Celtics. This team is undervalued right now due to the fact that they just traded Monte Ellis to the Milwaukee Bucks. They didn't have him last night, and they won 115-89 at Sacramento.
I don't believe the loss of Ellis will hurt this team one bit. They still have three stud guards in Stephon Curry, Klay Thompson and Nate Robinson, so they have plenty of depth at the position. Adding a big man like Andrew Bogut is precisely what they needed.
The Warriors are in a great state of mind right now after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games. They beat the defending champion Mavericks 111-87, followed by a huge road win at the Los Angeles Clippers 97-93, and then that 26-point victory at Sacramento last night. Their confidence is at an all-time high right now.
The Celtics are just 6-11 on the road this season where they are scoring 88.6 points/game. Boston is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games, including 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite. The Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Roll with the Warriors Wednesday.
|03-14-12||South Florida +3 v. California||Top||65-54||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
25* NCAA Tournament Play-In GAME OF THE YEAR on South Florida +3
The South Florida Bulls have been underrated all season. That hasn't changed in the NCAA Tournament as they should not have had to play a play-in game. USF will continue proving their doubters wrong by "upsetting" California tonight.
I believe the Bulls should be favored in this one. USF put together a 20-13 campaign this season, including a very impressive 12-6 mark in Big East play. They have recently beaten Cincinnati and won at Louisville, two very good NCAA Tournament teams.
California played in one of the weakest conferences in the country this season. The Bears arguably should not have gotten into the big dance after losing three of their final four games, including a bad 59-70 setback against Colorado in the Pac-12 Tournament.
The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Wednesday games. USF is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Bears are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home. Cal is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These four trends make for a 24-3 (89%) system backing the Bulls. Bet South Florida Wednesday.
|03-14-12||Charlotte Bobcats +8.5 v. Houston Rockets||87-107||Loss||-110||9 h 30 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +8.5
The Charlotte Bobcats are once again showing amazing value tonight against the Houston Rockets. Because the Bobcats own the worst record in the league, the betting public continues to stay off them. Now is the time to hop on board with this kind of value folks.
I'm not going to make an argument that Charlotte is a great team, because they are not. But the Bobcats were beat up with injuries in the first half, and they are just now finally starting to get healthy. I have no doubt they'll be more competitive from here on out given their health.
Houston is in a huge letdown spot tonight, plus they will be the more tired team. The Rockets are coming off a big 1-point road win over the Oklahoma City Thunder last night. After playing and defeating the top team in the West, the Rockets will have a hard time getting motivated to face the team with the worst record in the league tonight.
This play falls into a system that is 34-10 (77.3%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites (HOUSTON) - cold team - having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days. Not only are they tired, but the Rockets could be without two of their best players in Kyle Lowry & Kevin Martin, who are each listed as questionable. Take Charlotte Wednesday.
|03-13-12||Golden State Warriors +3 v. Sacramento Kings||115-89||Win||100||11 h 36 m||Show|
15* Warriors/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +3
Golden State is playing their best basketball of the season right now. As an underdog against the lowly Sacramento Kings (14-27) tonight, I'll pull the trigger on the Warriors once again. I had them Sunday night in a 97-93 outright road win over the Clippers as a 7-point underdog as well.
That win over the Clippers was their second impressive victory in a row. They had just beaten the defending champion Dallas Mavericks 111-87 the night before. Those two wins right there show that the Warriors are capable of playing with just about anyone. Now healthy with Curry, Ellis, and Lee in full force, this is a dangerous team the rest of the way.
This play falls into a system that is 63-33 (65.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams (SACRAMENTO) - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss as a home favorite. The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Pacific. Roll with the Warriors Tuesday.
|03-13-12||Dayton v. Iowa -4.5||75-84||Win||100||8 h 1 m||Show|
15* NIT Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -4.5
The Iowa Hawkeyes are certainly happy to be playing in the NIT with a 17-16 record. Dayton is a team at 20-12 that was on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament, and they certainly did not want to be playing in the NIT. With the Hawkeyes more motivated tonight, I believe they run away with this one.
Iowa went a respectable 8-10 in Big Ten play this season, which was labeled the best conference in the country. That included two wins over Wisconsin, along with home victories over Michigan and Indiana, which are three teams that will be playing in the Big Dance. The Hawkeyes went 13-6 at home this season, while the Flyers went just 6-8 on the road.
Iowa is 8-0 ATS after allowing 85 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Hawkeyes are 9-1 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Dayton is 0-6 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. These three trends make for a 23-1 (96%) system backing the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa Tuesday.
|03-13-12||Mississippi Valley State v. Western Kentucky -3||Top||58-59||Loss||-110||7 h 17 m||Show|
20* NCAA Tournament First Round BLOWOUT on Western Kentucky -3
Western Kentucky did not have a great regular season, but they got hot at the right time and now will be a dangerous opponent going forward. I have them making easy work of Mississippi Valley State in this one. MVS is a quality team, but they aren't on the same level as the Hilltoppers.
WKU is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. They won four straight games by five points or less in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament to be crown champs. This team is playing with a ton of confidence right now, and there's no question that if this game is close down the stretch, they will have what it takes to pull it off.
Mississippi Valley State plays in one of the easiest conference in the country. Their true colors showed early in the non-conference slate as MVS opened 1-11 through their first 12 games with their lone win coming 90-89 over Tennessee State. They haven't played another NCAA Tournament team since that 1-11 start.
Western Kentucky is 24-9 ATS in their last 33 neutral site games. MVS is 0-6 ATS in their last six neutral site games. WKU is 6-0 ATS in thier last 6 NCAA Tournament games. The Hilltoppers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. WKU is 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. These last four trends make for a perfect 24-0 system backing the Hilltoppers. Bet Western Kentucky Tuesday.
|03-12-12||Milwaukee Bucks v. New Jersey Nets UNDER 198||105-99||Loss||-104||7 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Bucks/Nets UNDER 198
Oddsmakers have missed their mark badly with this total. I believe they have set it too high due to recent high-scoring games that the Bucks and Nets have played in. The clear value in this one is with the UNDER, and for a number of reasons.
The biggest reason is the fact that New Jersey is likely to be without their two leading scorers in Deron Williams (22.0 PPG, 8.0 APG) and Brook Lopez (19.2 PPG). The Nets will struggle to find points without Williams, who is listed as doubtful with an ankle injury.
New Jersey just combined for 218 points with Houston in their last game, while Milwaukee has combined for 204 or more points in three straight contests. Those efforts were "abnormal" considering these are two of the worst offensive teams in the league. The Nets are only scoring 92.3 points/game at home while the Bucks are putting up just 93.0 points/game on the road.
Milwaukee beat New Jersey 92-85 in their lone meeting this season for 177 combined points on February 19th. That total was set at 195 points, and somehow they have raised this total to 198. Nine of the last 11 meetings in this series have seen 197 or less combined points as these teams have gone UNDER 198 points 82% of the time during this stretch. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.
|03-12-12||Milwaukee Bucks -3 v. New Jersey Nets||Top||105-99||Win||100||7 h 26 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3
I like the Milwaukee Bucks quite a bit tonight against the New Jersey Nets. The Bucks are playing much better of late, winning three of their last four games overall while going 4-0 ATS in the process. Their lone loss was a 104-106 setback to the Chicago Bulls, one of the best teams in the league.
One of the biggest reasons I have for this play is the fact that Deron Williams is doubtful to play with an ankle injury. Without Williams (22.0 PPG, 8.0 APG) on the floor, the Nets are arguably the worst team in the league. They are already without second-leading scorer Brook Lopez (19.2 PPG) as well.
This has been a very one-sided series over the last few years to say the least. Milwaukee is a perfect 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings with New Jersey dating back to 2009. Even more impressive is the fact that they've won all nine of those games by 7 points or more, and seven by double-digits. Bet the Bucks Monday.
|03-11-12||Golden State Warriors +7 v. Los Angeles Clippers||Top||97-93||Win||100||11 h 53 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Clippers NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on Golden State +7
Golden State is showing great value Sunday as a 7-point road underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers. The Warriors are coming off an emphatic 111-87 win over the defending champion Dallas Mavericks, giving them the confidence they need to beat anyone in this league.
The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest. Golden State is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Bet Golden State Sunday.
|03-10-12||Indiana Pacers +9.5 v. Miami Heat||91-93||Win||100||15 h 23 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +9.5
The Indiana Pacers are primed to give the Miami Heat a run for their money tonight. Indiana is one of the most underrated teams in the league this season, and they're fully capable of pulling off this upset tonight.
Having not played since a 96-101 home loss to Atlanta on March 6th, the Pacers will be chomping at the bit to return to game action tonight. They have had three days off so they'll be rested and better prepared to take on the Heat.
Miami is 0-8 ATS in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons. The Heat have already beaten the Pacers twice this season, so I could see them being disinterested here, which will likely lead to a letdown. Take Indiana Saturday.
|03-10-12||NC State +9 v. North Carolina||Top||67-69||Win||100||9 h 48 m||Show|
20* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on NC State +9
NC State is primed to pull off the upset over rival North Carolina Saturday. This team is playing their best basketball down the stretch, winners of three straight to likely play their way into the NCAA Tournament.
UNC head coach Roy Williams hasn't been shy about the fact that he doesn't care about results in the ACC Tournament. His players know it, too, which sets them up for a huge letdown spot here.
NC State wants revenge from two regular season losses to the Tar Heels. They'll clearly be the more motivated team heading into this one because of it.
The Wolfpack are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 NCAA Tournament games. The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. NC State is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Bet NC State Saturday.
|03-09-12||Dayton v. Xavier -2.5||Top||69-70||Loss||-109||12 h 37 m||Show|
25* Atlantic 10 Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Xavier -2.5
It's now or never for the Xavier Musketeers, who are squarely on the bubble in terms of making the NCAA Tournament. If they don't win this game tonight, then there chances of making it are slim to none.
I like backing teams like Xavier who have a lot to play for because you know they are going to be giving their best effort to try and get a win. Xavier is 25-11 in their last 36 meetings with Dayton, so they have certainly owned this series.
Dayton is 7-21 ATS in road games after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread since 1997. Bet Xavier Friday.
|03-09-12||Cincinnati +7.5 v. Syracuse||71-68||Win||100||10 h 36 m||Show|
15* Cincinnati/Syracuse ESPN Big East No-Brainer on Cincinnati +7.5
The Cincinnati Bearcats have simply been rolling since their brawl against Xavier earlier this season. This is a team that has the potential to beat anyone. They are not only dangerous in the Big East Tournament, they will also be a sleeper in the NCAA Tournament as well.
Syracuse is certainly overvalued right now due to their 31-1 record. Oddsmakers are forced to set them as a big favorite every time they hit the court simply because of that record. That provides us with ample value to pull the trigger on the Bearcats tonight.
The Orange are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall, so that just shows how overvalued this team is right now. Cincinnati is a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games, and they have won eight of their last 10 games overall. Take Cincinnati Friday.
|03-09-12||New Jersey Nets v. Charlotte Bobcats +3||Top||83-74||Loss||-110||9 h 41 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Bobcats +3
The Charlotte Bobcats are playing much better of late now that they have finally started to get healthy. The Bobcats are undervalued because they own the league's worst record, but they are going to be a very profitable bet at the pay window going forward because of it.
Charlotte is a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They lost to the Nets 101-104 as a 4.5 points underdog, beat the Magic 100-84 as a 9-point dog, and lost to the Jazz 93-99 as a 7-point dog. After just losing to New Jersey recently, there's no question that Charlotte is going to be motivated for revenge, while the Nets will be disinterested tonight.
The Nets are 2-10 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. New Jersey is 3-13 ATS when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) over the last 3 seasons. The Nets are 2-12 ATS versus poor shooting teams - making <=43% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. As you can see, New Jersey has a tough time getting up to play teams like Charlotte. Roll with the Bobcats Friday.
|03-08-12||Dallas Mavericks -3.5 v. Phoenix Suns||94-96||Loss||-105||12 h 9 m||Show|
15* Mavericks/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas -3.5
The Dallas Mavericks have simply owned the Phoenix Suns over the last few years. I look for more of the same tonight against a Phoenix team that is nowhere near as good as it was over the last decade. Phoenix is down, while Dallas remains a title contender as they look to repeat.
Dallas is 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with Phoenix. If that's not domination, I don't know what is. They have won all eight games by 6 points or more as well, so it's not like these contests have been all that close. This is simply a tough match-up for the Suns, and that's not going to change tonight.
Phoenix played a hard-fought game last night at Oklahoma City, falling by a final of 104-115. Meanwhile, Dallas had the night off, so there's no question the Mavericks will be the fresher team heading into this one. Phoenix could still be deflated from blowing a double-digit lead last night.
The Suns are 1-11 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Phoenix is 8-26 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Mavericks are 38-15-2 ATS in their last 55 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with Dallas Thursday.
|03-08-12||Texas v. Iowa State||Top||71-65||Loss||-110||12 h 5 m||Show|
25* Big 12 Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State PK
The Iowa State Cyclones have been a huge money-maker for me all season. I'm going to continue riding them at a great price in the opening round of the Big 12 Tournament. Somehow, some way this team continues going under the radar. They are once again undervalued in this showdown with Texas.
Iowa State is 22-9 on the season, including 12-6 in Big 12 action. They will be playing in the NCAA Tournament, but would certainly like to improve their seeding with a deep run in this Big 12 Tournament. ISU is 18-8 ATS in all games this year, including a superb 14-3 ATS in conference games. They have been underrated all year.
Unlike ISU, Texas has been overrated all season. The Longhorns are 19-12 on the year, including a woeful 9-17 ATS. Texas is 9-9 in Big 12 play, and 6-12 ATS in those 18 contests. This team still gets respect from oddsmakers because they are "Texas", but they don't deserve it. This is a very young team that won't be able to handle the pressure of this situation. Texas almost certainly needs a win to make the NCAA Tournament, but I do not believe they have what it takes.
Iowa State is 7-0 ATS in their last seven March games. Texas is 0-6 ATS in their last six versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game this season. The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. These three trends make for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Cyclones. Bet Iowa State Thursday.
|03-08-12||Georgia Tech v. Miami Fla -6.5||36-54||Win||100||11 h 59 m||Show|
15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami -6.5
The Miami Hurricanes need this win to help their chances of making the NCAA Tournament. With a loss Thursday, the Hurricanes would almost certainly be on the outside looking in in terms of the Big Dance. I believe they have what it takes to not only win this game, but to win it by double-digits.
Georgia Tech is in a four-way tie for the worst record in the ACC this season at 4-12. The Yellow Jackets are just 11-19 on the season, and they simply aren't even in the same class as Miami. That was evident when these teams met at Georgia Tech on January 24th in their lone meeting of the season. Miami ran away with that game 64-49 as a 2-point favorite.
I like the Hurricanes (18-11) to be able to put a similar beat down on the Yellow Jackets on a neutral court this time around. They shot 48.1 percent from the field while limiting Georgia Tech to just 35.7 percent shooting in that victory. Miami was outrebounded and shot only three free throws, yet still won by 15 points.
Georgia Tech is 0-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Head coach Brian Gregory is 3-20 ATS versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game in all games he has coached since 1997. The Hurricanes are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Miami is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 neutral site games. Take Miami Thursday.
|03-07-12||Portland Trailblazers +1 v. Minnesota Timberwolves||94-106||Loss||-107||9 h 1 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +1
The Portland Trail Blazers want revenge from a 122-110 home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves just four nights ago on March 3rd. There's no question that the Blazers are going to be the more motivated team in this spot.
Not only will the Timberwolves have a hard time getting up for this game because they just beat the Blazers, they may also be looking ahead to their next game. Minnesota just lost to the Los Angeles Lakers on February 29th, but they'll have their chance for revenge with the Lakers coming up next on Friday. Portland is surely going to be in a better mental state of mind coming into this one.
Portland has won eight straight in Minnesota since March 25, 2007, winning by an average of 17.2 points in its last five visits. The Timberwolves win in Portland a few nights ago was a rarity in this series to say the least. The Blazers are now 16-1 in their last 17 meetings with Minnesota overall.
The Blazers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games playing on 1 days rest. The Timberwolves are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite, including 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Blazers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 meetings in Minnesota. Take Portland Wednesday.
|03-07-12||Texas A&M +1.5 v. Oklahoma||Top||62-53||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
20* Big 12 Tournament No-Brainer on Texas A&M +1.5
Texas A&M is certainly one of the biggest sleepers heading into the Big 12 Tournament. This team is a lot more talented than the No. 9 seed they have been given. The Aggies battled injuries all season, but they have finally started to get healthy here down the stretch.
Starting F Khris Middleton (12.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG) and starting PG Dash Harris (6.0 PPG, 4.3 APG) have each missed time due to injury. Both players are back and healthy and making key contributions. Also, Kourtney Roberson (4.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG) played in the first nine games of the season before missing the last 21. He could return tonight and is listed as day-to-day.
Oklahoma just beat Texas A&M 65-62 only four days ago in Norman. I like the Aggies to get their revenge in the Big 12 Tournament and to finally live up to the expectations that were put on them at the start of the season. Remember, this was a team that was supposed to contend for a Big 12 title. Now healthy, they can be that team.
The Sooners are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997. Oklahoma is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Sooners are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The Aggies are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings with the Sooners. These four trends make for a 27-0 system backing the Aggies. Bet Texas A&M Wednesday.
|03-07-12||Houston Rockets -1.5 v. Toronto Raptors||98-116||Loss||-110||8 h 1 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -1.5
The Houston Rockets are favored for a reason here tonight. Oddsmakers believe they are going to get back on track, and so do I. They face the perfect team to do so in the lowly Toronto Raptors, who are just 12-26 on the season.
Houston has lost four straight games, so there's no question they are hungry to get back on track with a win tonight. Those four losses came on the the road to Utah and Boston, and at home to Denver and the LA Clippers. After playing such a tough schedule during this stretch, the Rockets will enjoy getting this opportunity to face overmatched Toronto.
The Rockets are 17-4 ATS in road games after 2 straight losses by 6 points or less since 1996. Houston is 50-19 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996. The Rockets are 29-10 ATS in road games after 4 or more consecutive losses since 1996. As you can see, this team is a great bet when trying to bounce back from multiple losses. Houston is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Roll with the Rockets Wednesday.
|03-06-12||Detroit v. Valparaiso -2.5||70-50||Loss||-101||11 h 19 m||Show|
15* Horizon League Championship No-Brainer on Valparaiso -2.5
The Valparaiso Crusaders are clearly the better team in this match-up with the Detroit Titans. This will be a home game for the Crusaders as it will be played in Valparaiso, IN, which only further enhances their chances of taking down the Horizon League title tonight.
Valparaiso is 22-10 on the season and 15-4 in conference play. Detroit isn't far behind at 21-13 and 14-7 in conference play, but the fact of the matter is that they are behind. The Titans are just 8-9 on the road this season, while the Crusaders are 14-2 at home and outscoring opponents by 11.3 points/game.
There's no question it is tough to beat a team three times in the same season, but I believe the Crusaders will be up to the task tonight. They won both regular season meetings with Detroit by narrow margins of 78-73 at home and 73-71 on the road. Valpo shot 50.0 percent or better in both games, so they certainly know how to pick apart this Detroit defense.
Valpo is 6-0 ATS in home games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Titans are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Valpo is a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Detroit. Roll with Valparaiso Tuesday.
|03-06-12||New Jersey Nets v. Miami Heat OVER 195.5||78-108||Loss||-110||10 h 54 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Heat OVER 195.5
The New Jersey Nets and Miami Heat will take part in a shootout tonight in a game where I foresee 200-plus combined points with ease. New Jersey is one of the worst defensive teams in the league, and Miami can light up the scoreboard as well as anyone when they want to.
New Jersey is giving up 99.3 points/game this season on 47.6 percent shooting. They gave up 107 points at Boston and 101 points at Charlotte in their last two games, respectively. You can just imagine what Miami is going to do against their defense tonight if those two offensively-challenged teams put up over 100.
Miami is torching the Nets this year to the tune of 103.1 points/game and 48.4 percent shooting. The Heat are putting up 104.6 points/game on 49.7 percent shooting at home this season. They have scored 102-plus points in eight of their last 11 games overall.
This play falls into a system that is 26-6 (81.2%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on any team (MIAMI) - extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days, a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%). Miami is 12-3 to the OVER as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|03-06-12||Western Kentucky v. North Texas -2||Top||74-70||Loss||-109||9 h 19 m||Show|
20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on North Texas -2
The North Texas Mean Green are clearly the better team in this match-up and I look for them to run away with the Sun Belt Conference championship tonight with a blowout victory over Western Kentucky. This one shouldn't even be close folks.
WKU has put together a magical run with three straight victories in this conference tournament all by 5 points or less. Playing their 4th game in 4 days, the Hilltoppers simply won't have enough left in the tank to pull off another upset. You have to remember that WKU is still just 14-18 on the season.
North Texas has also made the championship with some close victories along the way. But this will be just the 3rd game in 3 days for the Mean Green as they had a first-round bye. They will be the fresher team and they own an 18-13 record on the season.
The biggest indication that North Texas is the better team comes from the fact that they beat Western Kentucky 84-67 in their lone meeting this season. The Mean Green shot 56.4 percent from the floor while limiting the Hilltoppers to just 34.6 percent shooting in that January 12th home victory.
North Texas is a perfect 8-0 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games this season. They are winning by 8.8 points/game in this situation. The Mean Green are 22-7-2 ATS in their last 31 games overall. North Texas is 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 neutral site games. Bet North Texas Tuesday.
|03-05-12||Dallas Mavericks v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 195.5||91-95||Win||100||8 h 14 m||Show|
15* Mavs/Thunder NBA TV No-Brainer on UNDER 195.5
The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder are very familiar with one another after playing in the Western Conference Finals last season. They certainly know how to stop one another defensively, which has been evident in their first two meetings of the year.
Dallas won the first meeting at home 100-87 for 187 combined points on January 2nd, but would lose at home 86-95 for 181 combined points in their next meeting on February 1st. I fully expect this game to be played in the 180's once again as it stays well below the posted total tonight.
The Mavericks have been one of the best defensive teams in the league all season, but they are struggling to find the basket this year. The Mavs are scoring 94.2 points/game overall, including 91.5 points/game on the road. Dallas gives up just 91.3 points/game on the season and 91.6 points/game on the road. The Thunder only allow 94.3 points/game at home.
Oklahoma City is a perfect 7-0 to the UNDER after playing 2 consecutive games as a road favorite this season. The UNDER is 7-1 in Thunder last 8 games following a S.U. loss. The UNDER is 6-1 in Mavericks last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. These three trends make for a 20-2 (91%) system backing the UNDER. Plus, the UNDER is 12-4-1 in the last 17 meetings in Oklahoma City. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.
|03-05-12||Indiana Pacers v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 189.5||72-92||Win||100||8 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Bulls UNDER 189.5
This game has defensive battle written all over it. The Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls are very familiar with each other after meeting up in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs last season. They know how to contain one another defensively because of this familiarity.
In their first meeting this season, the Pacers and Bulls combined for 185 points with a 95-90 road victory by Indiana. That low-scoring output should come as no surprise consider four of their last five meetings have seen 186 or less combined points.
These are two of the best defensive teams in the league as the Bulls give up 88.3 points/game overall, including 85.4 points/game at home. Indiana yields just 91.9 points/game overall and 92.6 points/game on the road.
Chicago is 30-14 to the UNDER revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Pacers last 7 vs. Eastern Conference, 5-0 in Bulls last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 4-0 in Bulls last 4 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day. These last three trends make for a 15-0 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.
|03-05-12||Miami Ohio v. Toledo -2||Top||53-60||Win||100||8 h 10 m||Show|
20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Toledo -2
The Toledo Rockets should be a much bigger favorite tonight over the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks in the opening round of the MAC Tournament. They clearly have the better team this year as evident by their 16-15 record compared to the 9-20 mark of the Redhawks.
This is a home game for Toledo, where they have been dominant all season. The Rockets are 10-7 at home while outscoring opponents by 8.8 points/game. They come into this conference tournament with some momentum after winning five of their final six regular sason games.
Miami (Ohio) is simply overvalued in this spot. The Redhawks are 2-13 on the road this season where they are scoring a mere 59.7 points/game. These teams have already squared off once this season with Toledo winning 63-61 on the road as an 8.5-point favorite. I like their chances of winning by 3-plus points at home this time around.
The Rockets are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5. Toledo is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Rockets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Toledo is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Miami (Ohio) leading scorer and rebounder Julian Mavunga (16.6 PPG, 9.1 RPG) is questionable with a heel injury. Bet Toledo Monday.
|03-04-12||Ohio State +3.5 v. Michigan State||72-70||Win||100||7 h 43 m||Show|
15* Big Ten GAME OF THE DAY on Ohio State +3.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes are one of the top four teams in the country in my opinion. Any time you can get them as an underdog, you better take advantage. Jared Sullinger and company want revenge from a home loss to Michigan State in their first meeting.
It's safe to say that the Buckeyes are going to be more motivated for this game than any other game of the season with the Big Ten title on the line. A motivated Ohio State team is a very dangerous one to say the least.
The Buckeyes are 16-4 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite since 1997. The Spartans are 1-11 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick since 1997, failing to cover the spread 92% of the time in this situation. Bet the Buckeyes Sunday.
|03-04-12||Miami Heat v. Los Angeles Lakers +4.5||Top||83-93||Win||100||6 h 14 m||Show|
20* Heat/Lakers ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles +4.5
The Los Angeles Lakers should not be an underdog at home to the Miami Heat. Los Angeles is going to approach this game like its the NBA Finals. Kobe Bryant has lost five straight games against Lebron James, and there's no question it's eating at him. He changes that today with a victory over the Heat.
Ever since Kobe came out in public and backed up Pau Gasol in terms of trade talks, the Lakers have been rolling. L.A. is 4-1 in their last five games overall during this stretch, and their lone loss came at Oklahoma City. The Thunder have the best record in the West, so that's no surprise.
Miami is 4-16 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. L.A. is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Lakers are 16-2 at home this season. Bet Los Angeles Sunday.
|03-03-12||North Carolina -2 v. Duke||88-70||Win||100||11 h 51 m||Show|
15* UNC/Duke ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on North Carolina -2
North Carolina wants serious payback from their heartbreaking 85-84 home loss to Duke in their first meeting. The Tar Heels blew a double-digit lead late and had to watch Austin Rivers' 3-point attempt sail through the net for the game-winner at the buzzer. It's safe to say that UNC will be laying it all on the line to get revenge tonight.
While these teams have identical 26-4 records, there's no question in my mind that UNC is the better team. They are favored for a reason here tonight. UNC has reeled off six straight wins since that loss, including four by double-digits. They are 5-1 ATS during this stretch.
Duke has been a little shaky since that win, winning six straight as well, but four of those came by single-digits. The Blue Devils were nearly beaten by both Virginia Tech and NC State in their last two home games.
Duke is 1-9 ATS in a home game where the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last 2 seasons. The Blue Devils are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Tar Heels are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Duke. Roll with North Carolina Saturday.
|03-03-12||Baylor v. Iowa State -1.5||Top||72-80||Win||100||11 h 52 m||Show|
25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State -1.5
Iowa State has been one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball this season. I've been riding them all year with a lot of success, and it's only fitting that I would make the Cyclones my 25* CBB GAME OF THE YEAR Saturday. I am more confident in them to cover the spread today than in any other game they have played all season.
That's saying a lot because the Cyclones have been a covering machine this year. Iowa State is 21-9 SU & 17-8 ATS in all games. They have been terrific at home, and this is going to be a rowdy home crowd for Senior Night. Iowa State is 15-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 9.8 points/game. That includes a 7-1 home record in conference play with their only loss to Missouri.
Unlike Iowa State, Baylor is one of the most overrated teams in the land. They played a soft early schedule and have really not been that impressive in conference action when things got tougher. Baylor did beat Iowa State by 15 points at home in their first meeting, but it was an off night for the Cyclones. The Bears shot 60.0 percent from the floor in that game, and they aren't about to come close to hitting that high of a percentage on the road this time around. It's revenge time for the Cyclones.
Iowa State is 6-0 ATS in home games after a game giving up 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons. The Cyclones are 6-0 ATS in March games over the last 3 seasons. The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games. The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Iowa State is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Iowa State is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home meetings with Baylor.
The home team is a perfect 12-0 SU in the last 12 meetings in this series. Iowa State has won seven straight at home over Baylor dating back to 1997. Basically, the Cyclones just have to win this game to cover. Add that 12-0 trend to the previous seven trends unbeaten trends and we have a perfect 49-0 system backing the Cyclones. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|03-03-12||Milwaukee Bucks +9.5 v. Orlando Magic||98-114||Loss||-110||10 h 55 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +9.5
The Milwaukee Bucks are showing great value Saturday as nearly a double-digit underdog to the Orlando Magic. I like the Bucks' state of mind heading into this game, and believe they will be determined enough to not only cover this spread, but likely win the game outright.
Milwaukee is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS against Orlando this season, with all three losses coming by 9 points or less. They are 0-3 despite having held a lead in the 4th quarter of every single game. The Bucks have simply given all three games away down the stretch, so there's no question it has left a sour taste in their mouths.
While Milwaukee will come out fired up and ready to play to get revenge, Orlando is likely to come out flat after having already beaten this team three times. Plus, the Magic are deflated from their 102-105 home loss to Oklahoma City on National TV Thursday. They held a double-digit lead going into the 4th quarter and managed to blow it. Look for them to suffer a 'hangover' effect here.
The Magic are 13-28 ATS in their last 41 games off a close home loss by 3 points or less. Milwaukee is 28-14 ATS in road games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Magic are 8-24 ATS after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Take the Bucks Saturday.
|03-03-12||Vanderbilt v. Tennessee +2||61-68||Win||100||8 h 51 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tennessee +2
Tennessee has quietly been playing their best basketball of the season here recently. The Volunteers should not be a home underdog on Senior Day against the Vanderbilt Commodores. This is one of their biggest rivals, which only adds more fuel to the fire.
The Vols are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. This stretch includes impressive road wins over Florida, South Carolina and LSU. They have put themselves in position to be at least a borderline NCAA Tournament team.
The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Vols are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games. Tennessee is 8-0 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog this season. The Vols are 7-0 ATS after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season. These last two trends make for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Vols. Take Tennessee Saturday.
|03-03-12||Georgetown v. Marquette -4||69-83||Win||100||6 h 51 m||Show|
15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -4
Marquette is one of the best teams in the country that nobody really talks about. On Senior Day in front of a rowdy home crowd, I like the Eagles to beat Georgetown by 5-plus points tonight to get the win and cover.
The Eagles are 24-6 this season. They have been virtually unstoppable at home, going 14-1 while outscoring opponents by 16.8 points/game. Five of Georgetown's six losses have come on the road this season, so they'll certainly have their hands full.
Marquette will be motivated for Senior Day, but they will also be hungry to revenge a 73-70 road loss to Georgetown in their first meeting on January 4th. The Hoyas shot 62.8 percent from the floor in that game, yet still only won by 3 points! There's no way in hell they shoot that well again.
Marquette will also be motivated from a bad loss at Cincinnati last time out, which has clearly helped keep this spread lower than it really should be. The Eagles are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss. Marquette is 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 vs. Big East opponents. Bet Marquette Saturday.
|03-02-12||Sacramento Kings +10.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers||107-115||Win||100||12 h 20 m||Show|
15* Kings/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +10.5
The Sacramento Kings are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. The Los Angeles Lakers always seem to play to their competition, and it's usually a good bet to fade them whenever they are a double-digit favorite against a team they are "supposed" to dominate.
While Sacramento is just 12-23 this season, they are clearly improved from a year ago. The biggest reason for their poor record has been a brutal schedule that has featured 21 road games and only 14 home games. It's safe to say that this team is battle-tested on the road and will not be phased by the Lakers tonight.
Since the end of January, the Kings have been one of the most profitable teams in the league at the pay window. Sacramento is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall, losing by double-digits just three times during this stretch. Ten of those 16 games were on the road as well.
The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Sacramento is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. The Kings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. Sacramento is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. The Lakers are 15-29 ATS in their last 44 games as a favorite of 10 or more. The Kings are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles. Take Sacramento Friday.
|03-02-12||Charlotte Bobcats +14.5 v. San Antonio Spurs||Top||72-102||Loss||-108||10 h 20 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Bobcats +14.5
The Charlotte Bobcats are clearly going to be showing great value throughout the second half of the season. They were clearly the worst team in the first half, which is what will keep the betting public off of them. As a result, the Bobcats should show a nice profit at the pay window for weeks to come.
I especially like Charlotte in this spot tonight against a deflated San Antonio Spurs team. The Spurs are coming off a tough home loss to the Chicago Bulls last time out. They wanted that game pretty badly to prove that they were among the NBA's elite. I have a hard time seeing them coming back motivated to face the team with the league's worst record tonight.
One of the biggest reason for the Bobcats' struggles in the first half was injuries. Charlotte just couldn't seem to get healthy, but they finally have most of their players back heading into the second half. Key players like Corey Maggette, Gerald Henderson and D.J. Augustin have all returned from injury. All three of those guys are starters, so they're obviously important.
This play falls into a system that is 46-18 (71.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (CHARLOTTE) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games.
The Spurs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater. The Bobcats are 41-22 ATS after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread since 1996. Bet Charlotte Friday.
|03-02-12||Northern Iowa -2.5 v. Illinois St||42-54||Loss||-101||4 h 14 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -2.5
Northern Iowa is one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley Conference that nobody talks about. If there's one team that is going to upset Creighton and/or Wichita State to win this MVC tournament and advance to the Big Dance, it's certainly the Panthers.
I like UNI quite a bit this afternoon as a mere 2.5-point favorite over Illinois State. Northern Iowa is 19-12 on the season and they come into this tournament with some momentum after beating Bradley and Southern Illinois in back-to-back games to end the season.
When you look at the regular season meetings between these teams, it's clear that Northern Iowa is the better squad. UNI beat Illinois State 78-63 at home, but lost to them by a narrow margin of 61-65 on the road. Illinois State only has four wins away from home all season and this one will be played on a neutral court.
Northern Iowa is 10-1 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. Illinois State is 0-7 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a favorite. The Redbirds are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. These four trends make for a 30-1 (97%) system backing the Panthers. Roll with Northern Iowa Friday.
|03-01-12||Utah +17 v. Oregon State||67-77||Win||100||13 h 35 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Utah +17
The Utah Utes are way undervalued late in the season due to their poor 6-22 record. While Oregon State has a better record at 15-13 this season, the Beavers have no business being favored this heavily tonight.
Utah has played much better of late. The Utes have covered in five straight games, including an impressive 58-57 home victory over Stanford as a 12-point underdog last time out. I had Utah as my 25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR in that contest, so this team has certainly been on my radar. They haven't lost any of their last five games by more than 14 points.
Oregon State has packed it in. The Beavers are 0-5 in their last five games overall, failing to cover the spread in all five. That includes home losses to Washington, Washington State, and Oregon during this stretch. After a 1-point loss to their biggest rivals last time out in the Ducks, they will have a hard time getting motivated to face Utah tonight.
Utah is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Utes are 7-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive unders this season. Utah is 6-0 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent this season, only losing by 7.2 points/game in this spot. The Beavers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. These four trends make for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Utes. Roll with Utah Thursday.
|03-01-12||Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5 v. Orlando Magic||Top||105-102||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
20* Thunder/Magic TNT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City -1.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder are the best team in the Western Conference, hands down. Any time they face a team from the East, unless it's the Miami Heat or Chicago Bulls, the Thunder should be at least a 4-point favorite on the road. They basically just have to win this game to cover this small spread, and that's precisely what I expect them to do.
With last night's impressive win at Philadelphia, the Thunder have improved to 28-7 on the season. They are simply rolling right now, winners of six straight overall, all by 4 points or more. Orlando is a solid team at 23-13 this season, but they're not on the same level as Oklahoma City.
This is a good match-up for the Thunder. They have Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka, one of the best shot blockers in the league, inside to defend Dwight Howard. Orlando doesn't have anybody that can stay with Russell Westbrook, and they certainly do not have an answer defensively for Kevin Durant. OKC won their first meeting with Orlando this season 97-89 behind 30 points from Durant. They held Howard to just 11 points.
The Magic are 0-8 ATS after playing 4 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. The Thunder are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 vs. Eastern Conference. Oklahoma City is 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Bet the Thunder Thursday.
|03-01-12||Florida State v. Virginia Cavaliers UNDER 116.5||63-60||Loss||-113||10 h 55 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Florida State/Virginia UNDER 116.5
I fully expect a defensive battle tonight between the Florida State Seminoles and Virginia Cavaliers. Intensity will be high at the defensive end as both teams look to bounce back from losses last time out. These are two of the best defensive teams in the land, and that will be on display tonight.
I look for a similar showing to the 58-55 battle won by Florida State at home in their first meeting of the season. What's most impressive about how low-scoring of a game that was is the fact that both teams shot well from the field. FSU shot 47.8 percent and Virginia shot 46.7 percent, but the pace was just extremely slow.
I expect another slow pace tonight with a very good chance that neither team shoots as well as they did in their first meeting. Virginia only allows 52.2 points/game on 38.7 percent shooting this season. They are even better at home, yielding a mere 48.6 points/game on 36.5 percent shooting. FSU allows 61.9 points/game on 37.6 percent shooting this season.
Virginia is 19-4 to the UNDER in all games this season. The Cavaliers are 8-0 to the UNDER after scoring 65 points or less 2 straight games this season. Virginia is 6-0 to the UNDER versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season. The Cavaliers are 7-0 to the UNDER versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=39% this season. Virginia is 8-0 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. These last four trends make for a 29-0 system backing the UNDER tonight. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|02-29-12||Houston Rockets v. Utah Jazz -2.5||83-104||Win||100||10 h 58 m||Show|
15* Rockets/Jazz NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -2.5
The Utah Jazz have certainly been struggling of late, but a lot of that has to do with playing one of the toughest schedule in the league in the month of February. I believe this team is undervalued heading into tonight's game with Houston because of their recent struggles. They are favored for good reason tonight.
Utah has lost nine of their last 11, but eight of those 11 games were played on the road, and two of their three home games came against the top two teams in the Western Conference in the Thunder and Spurs. Their road schedule has been a daunting one as well. It's safe to say the the Jazz are going to be extra hungry for a victory tonight to get back on track.
They should have no problem winning this game on their home floor, where they have been pretty impressive all season. This has been one of the best home teams in the league over the last decade as Salt Lake City provides a great atmosphere for basketball. The Jazz are 12-6 at home this season, while the Rockets are just 6-10 on the road.
Houston has won four straight, but all four of those wins came at home. This sets them up for a big letdown spot tonight as they are overrated due to their winning streak. This play falls into a system that is 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road teams (HOUSTON) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days. Roll with the Jazz Wednesday.
|02-29-12||Cleveland Cavaliers +10 v. New York Knicks||Top||103-120||Loss||-105||9 h 28 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Cavaliers +10
The Cleveland Cavaliers are showing great value Wednesday as a double-digit underdog to the New York Knicks. Cleveland has been underrated all season, and that's certainly the case tonight. Meanwhile, the New York Knicks are way overvalued right now due to their recent surge thanks to Jeremy Lin.
At 13-19 on the season, the Cavaliers are certainly improved from a year ago. Kyrie Irving is playing out of his mind and is the clear choice for Rookie of the Year honors through the All-Star Break. Cleveland is only getting outscored by an average of 3.6 points/game on the season, including 4.7 points/game on the road.
New York is just 17-18 on the year even with their recent 7-game winning streak. While Lin has improved this team, now is the time to fade them with all of the hype the Knicks have been getting in the media. Plus, New York is just 1-2 since Carmelo Anthony returned to the line-up, which has thrown of the chemistry the team had prior to him coming back.
This play falls into a system that is 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites (NEW YORK) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%). The Knicks are just 6-16 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.