|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|03-30-19||Purdue v. Virginia -4||Top||75-80||Win||100||10 h 18 m||Show|
20* Purdue/Virginia Elite 8 No-Brainer on Virginia -4
The Purdue Boilermakers became the first team in NCAA Tournament history to make at least 16 3-pointers in two consecutive games. They went 16-of-30 against Villanova and 16-of-33 against Tennessee. I just can’t believe they can keep this hot shooting up for a 3rd consecutive games.
That’s especially the case considering they are up against one of the best defensive teams in the country in the Virginia Cavaliers in the Elite 8. The Cavaliers give up just 54.8 points per game and 38.1% shooting from the field, including 28.1% from 3-point range. And that’s playing in the rugged ACC. They’ll have an answer for Edwards, Kline and company in this one.
Virginia is 8-0 ATS in Saturday road games over the last two seasons. The Cavaliers are 10-1 ATS in road games after allowing 50 points or less over the last two seasons. Virginia is 44-20-1 ATS in its last 65 games overall. This is the year the Cavaliers finally get through to the Final Four. Bet Virginia Saturday.
|03-30-19||Blazers v. Pistons -5||90-99||Win||100||8 h 13 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -5
The Detroit Pistons are playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch. They are 16-8 SU & 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games overall. The Pistons are 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games. Look for them to make easy work of the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.
The Blazers are in a tough spot tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days. They are already short-handed missing two of their three best players in Jusuf Nurkic and CJ McCollum. They were able to get by the Bulls and Hawks without them, but the Pistons are a different animal.
Detroit is 14-3 ATS in home games after covering five or six of their last seven against the spread over the last two seasons. The Trail Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on zero rest. Portland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to Detroit. Take the Pistons Saturday.
|03-29-19||Hornets -2 v. Lakers||115-129||Loss||-115||12 h 44 m||Show|
15* Hornets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Charlotte -2
The Charlotte Hornets are 1.5 games out of 8th place in the Eastern Conference. They need wins like blood right now, and I’ll gladly back them as short road favorites over the hapless Los Angeles Lakers, who have nothing to play for but pride.
The Hornets are brimming with confidence right now. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Jeremy Lamb hit a half-court shot at the buzzer to beat the Raptors outright as 11.5-point dogs two games ago, and that shot makes them feel invincible. They went on to upset the Spurs in overtime as 4.5-point dogs.
Now, the Hornets are rested and ready to go as they come in on two days’ rest. They are taking on a Lakers team that has completely folded down the stretch, going 4-13 SU & 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall. The Lakers are missing a ton of key players due to injury, and Lebron James is on a minutes restriction. They just don’t have the talent or the desire now to compete with Charlotte tonight.
The Hornets are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 Friday games. The Lakers are 7-25-1 ATS in their last 33 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Los Angeles is 0-6 ATS in its last six Friday games. The Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a loss by more than 10 points. The Hornets are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 trips to Los Angeles. Take the Hornets Friday.
|03-29-19||Virginia Tech +7 v. Duke||Top||73-75||Win||100||11 h 2 m||Show|
20* Virginia Tech/Duke Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +7
Everyone is making a big deal about Zion Williams coming back from injury. And since he has, the Blue Devils have been grossly overvalued. They Blue Devils are just 1-4 ATS since he returned, and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall. I think they’re getting too much respect here again tonight.
What’s getting overlooked is Virginia Tech getting its best player in Justin Robinson back from injury in time for the NCAA Tournament. Robinson (13.4 PPG, 5.0 APG) is their leader and floor general. With him in the lineup, the Hokies are capable of beating anyone in the country.
Virginia Tech beat Duke 77-72 as 3-point home dogs in their most recent meeting this season. I know Zion didn’t play, but Robinson was out for that game as well. And Duke is extremely fortunate to still be alive after beating UCF 77-76 after trailing by 3 with only a few seconds remaining. They got a 4-point possession, and UCF missed two shots at the buzzer that magically stayed out.
Duke is 2-11 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots after 15-plus games this season. The Hokies are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Friday games. The Blue Devils are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a win. Duke is 0-4 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games. Bet Virginia Tech Friday.
|03-29-19||Blazers v. Hawks +3.5||118-98||Loss||-110||9 h 44 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Atlanta Hawks +3.5
The Atlanta Hawks have been the best-kept secret in the NBA here down the stretch. The betting public wants nothing to do with them because they are just 27-48 on the season. That has allowed for a great opportunity for sharp players to back them knowing that they are playing much better than their record.
Indeed, the Hawks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall. They have won three straight, including upset home wins over Utah and Philadelphia to really show what they are capable of. They also won by 10 on the road at New Orleans as 2.5-point favorites.
Now, the Hawks come in on two days’ rest, so they’ll be fresh and ready to go against the Blazers. The Blazers are getting too much respect for their blowout win at Chicago against the Bulls’ D-League team last time out. But this is where the injuries to CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic really show up tonight against a Hawks team that is better than Portland minus those two key players.
The Hawks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents. Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a straight up win. Portland is 4-15 ATS in road games after failing to cover four or five of its last six ATS over the last three seasons. Take the Hawks Friday.
|03-29-19||Pacers v. Celtics -6.5||Top||112-114||Loss||-105||8 h 22 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -6.5
I love the spot for the Boston Celtics tonight. They trail the Indiana Pacers by one game for the 4th seed in the East, which would mean home-court advantage in the first round. These teams will meet in the first round for sure, so home-court advantage will be huge. The season series is tied 1-1, so this will determine the tiebreaker.
Boston comes in on two days’ rest and fully healthy for the first time in a long time. They are primed for a big effort at home, where they are 26-12 on the season. They beat Indiana 135-108 in their lone home meeting this season, and a similar blowout can be expected.
That’s especially the case when you consider how poorly the Pacers have been playing on the road here of late. That’s where they really miss Victor Oladipo’s leadership and ability to get big buckets on the highway. The Pacers are 0-9 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games, losing by 10.7 points per game on average.
Boston is 10-1 ATS after having lost four of its last five games over the last two seasons. It is coming back to win by 11.1 points per game on average in this spot. Bet the Celtics Friday.
|03-28-19||Oregon +8.5 v. Virginia||49-53||Win||100||13 h 44 m||Show|
15* Oregon/Virginia Sweet 16 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon +8.5
The Oregon Ducks are the hottest team in the tournament and still getting no respect from oddsmakers today as 8.5-point underdogs to the Virginia Cavaliers. The Ducks are 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall with eight of their wins coming by double-digits.
Everyone should have known they were for real when they dispatched a very good Wisconsin team 72-54 as 2-point dogs. They followed it up with a 73-54 win over a good UC-Irvine team as 4.5-point favorites in the Round of 32. To be able to score over 70 points on those two very solid defensive teams bodes well for them against Virginia.
The Ducks have been defending the 3-point line very well, and Kenny Wooten has been a shock blocking machine inside. They will be able to slow down Virginia inside and out, and that will be the key in them covering this inflated 8.5-point spread tonight. They only give up 39.9% shooting on the season and 29.1% from 3-point range.
The Cavaliers may win this game, but if they do it will go down to the wire. They have consistently underachieved in the NCAA Tournament, going just 1-5 ATS in their last six tournament games. Take Oregon Thursday.
|03-28-19||Clippers +9 v. Bucks||Top||118-128||Loss||-110||10 h 55 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Clippers +9
No team is playing better than the Los Angeles Clippers right now. The Clippers are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games overall with their only loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back against Portland. And yet they’re still getting no respect as 9-point dogs to the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.
This is a depleted Bucks team that is playing without Malcolm Brogdon, Nikola Mirotic, Pau Gasol, Tony Snell and Donte DiVencenzo. And the Bucks are in a massive letdown spot off their huge win over the Rockets on Tuesday on National TV. That was an MVP battle between Harden and Giannis and there was a lot of hype leading into it. I expect them to fall flat tonight.
Milwaukee has only won one of its last 14 meetings with the Clippers by more than 9 points. That makes for a 13-1 system backing the Clippers based on this 9-point spread. Bet the Clippers Thursday.
|03-28-19||Purdue v. Tennessee -1||Top||99-94||Loss||-115||10 h 39 m||Show|
20* Purdue/Tennessee Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Tennessee -1
I think we’re getting Tennessee at a great value Thursday. The Vols failed to cover the spread in each of their first two NCAA Tournament games. Because they didn’t cover when they easily could have, they are undervalued now.
The Vols held a double-digit lead over Colgate early but managed to win by just 7 as 17.5-point favorites. Then, they led Iowa by 25 but let the Hawkeyes come all the way back to tie the game and force overtime. They eventually won by 6 as 8-point favorites. They could have easily covered both games had they kept their foot on the gas.
Meanwhile, Purdue is overvalued after covering the spread in each of their first two tournament games. They won by 13 over Old Dominion as 12.5-point favorites, barely covering. And they’re really getting a lot of respect for beating Villanova by 26 as 3-point favorites. Nobody was beating Purdue that day as Carsen Edwards and company shot lights out and Villanova couldn’t throw the ball in the ocean.
I’m just not a big believer in Purdue because they rely too much on one player in Carsen Edwards to get their points. Tennessee is loaded with all five starters averaging double-digits scoring. Purdue won’t be able to beat them up inside like they do most opponents. Tennessee’s two best players are forwards Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield who combine to average over 35 points and 14 rebounds per game.
I actually like the fact that Tennessee is now battle-tested after having to stave off both Colgate and Iowa late. If this one comes down to the wire, I trust the Vols to make the necessary plays. The Vols are 13-1 ATS vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons. Bet Tennessee Thursday.
|03-27-19||Pacers v. Thunder UNDER 218||Top||99-107||Win||100||8 h 30 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Thunder UNDER 218
The Pacers and Thunder just played less than two weeks ago on March 14th. Indiana won 108-106 at home for 214 combined points with a 218-point total. Now, we have an identical 218-point total in the rematch. I like the UNDER knowing that both teams are very familiar with one another now, and that almost always favors the UNDER.
These are two teams that are struggling mightily on offense right now. The Thunder are 29th in offensive efficiency for the month of March. The Pacers are only one spot ahead of them in 28th for the month of March. And both teams rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency for the month of March as well.
The UNDER is 8-2 in Pacers last 10 games overall. They have combined with their opponents to score 215 or fewer points in eight of those 10 games. The UNDER is 10-5-1 in Thunder last 16 games overall. The UNDER is 6-1 in Pacers last seven road games. The UNDER is 36-16-1 in Oklahoma City’s last 53 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|03-26-19||Creighton v. TCU -3.5||58-71||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
15* Creighton/TCU NIT ANNIHILATOR on TCU -3.5
The TCU Horned Frogs are taking out their frustration from not making the NCAA Tournament on the rest of the NIT field. They have posted back-to-back blowout wins and covers over Sam Houston State by 13 as 12-point favorites and Nebraska by 16 as 4.5-point favorites.
Creighton has also handled its business at home, beating Loyola-Chicago by 9 and Memphis by 12. But the Bluejays now have to go on the road and face a Horned Frogs team that is 14-5 at home this season. It’s also a Horned Frogs team that can taste Madison Square Garden with another victory tonight, so they’ll continue to be max motivated.
Creighton only has four true road wins all season. The Horned Frogs are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. The Bluejays are 0-8 ATS in road games after covering four or five of their last six ATS over the last two seasons. TCU is 14-3 ATS after having won four of its last five games over the last three seasons. Roll with TCU Tuesday.
|03-26-19||Rockets +4 v. Bucks||Top||94-108||Loss||-103||8 h 23 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Houston Rockets +4
The Houston Rockets are 14-2 in their last 16 games overall with their two losses coming by a combined 3 points. They are playing their best basketball of the season and are ready to take down the Milwaukee Bucks, who have just recently been hit hard by injuries that will have them more worried about getting healthy for the playoffs than winning games down the stretch.
The Bucks will be without Malcolm Brogdon, Nikola Mirotic, Tony Snell and Pau Gasol tonight. The good news for them is that they have a four-game lead over the Raptors first 1st place in the East, and a 4.5-game lead over the Warriors for the 1st overall seed in the playoffs. They can certainly afford some losses here down the stretch.
Milwaukee is 13-29 ATS in home games after having won three of its last four games over the last three seasons. Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Bet the Rockets Tuesday.
|03-26-19||Spurs v. Hornets +4||116-125||Win||100||7 h 53 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets +4
The Charlotte Hornets are just two games out of 8th place in the Eastern Conference, trailing the Miami Heat for the final playoff spot. They have come up clutch by winning and covering against Minnesota, Boston and Toronto in three consecutive games, including their buzzer-beater from half court to beat the Raptors on the road. This team is playing with a ton of confidence now.
The Spurs are going to make the playoffs. They are simply playing for positioning at this point, and that’s it. They can’t get home court in the first round, but they could get anywhere from the 5th to the 8th seed. In all reality, that’s not a lot to play for. Don’t be surprised to see Greg Popovich start to rest players when he gets the chance here down the stretch.
The Hornets went into San Antonio and won 108-93 as 7-point road dogs in their first meeting this season. And now they are catching 4 points at home in the rematch in what is a must-win for them, and not a must-win for the Spurs. It’s especially important considering the Hornets go on the road for six of their next seven games after this contest.
Charlotte is 13-1 ATS vs. bad pressure defensive teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons. It is winning by 9.5 points per game in this spot. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take the Hornets Tuesday.
|03-25-19||Nets +6.5 v. Blazers||144-148||Win||100||10 h 10 m||Show|
15* Nets/Blazers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Brooklyn +6.5
The Brooklyn Nets have really turned it on with the playoffs approaching. They have won six of their last nine with their only three losses all coming on the road to three of the best teams in the West in OKC, Utah and the LA Clippers. But they’ve also gone on the road and beaten the Lakers, Kings and Hawks during this stretch.
Now, the Nets come in on two days’ rest after beating the Lakers on Friday. And while they’re fully healthy, the same cannot be said for the Pistons, who are missing CJ McCollum. They have been able to squeak by Indiana, Dallas and Detroit at home in their first three games without him. And if they win tonight, it won’t be by more than 6 points.
Brooklyn is 7-0 ATS in road games after two straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots this season. The Nets are 14-4 ATS when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. Brooklyn is 13-2 ATS in road games after allowing 105 points or more in four straight games over the last two seasons. The Nets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take the Nets Monday.
|03-25-19||Norfolk State +14.5 v. Colorado||60-76||Loss||-110||9 h 2 m||Show|
15* NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Norfolk State +14.5
Norfolk State has now won nine of its last 11 games with its two losses both coming by exactly 3 points. They should not be catching 14 points here against Colorado in the NIT. I expect the Spartans to give the Buffaloes a run for their money tonight.
Norfolk State proved what it was capable of with an 80-79 road win at Alabama as 16-point dogs in the opening round of the NIT. Meanwhile, Colorado struggled to get past Dayton 78-73 at home and was fortunate to cover the 4.5-point spread.
Colorado is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 tournament games. The Buffaloes are 5-15 ATS after having won six or seven of their last eight games over the last three seasons. Colorado is 20-36 ATS off a win over the last three seasons. Roll with Norfolk State Monday.
|03-25-19||Thunder -5.5 v. Grizzlies||Top||103-115||Loss||-110||8 h 10 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5
It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. They have lost four of their last five both straight up and ATS, but all five games were against playoff teams. In fact, they have played nine straight games against playoff teams coming in, so their recent struggles can largely be attributed to the schedule.
Now, the Thunder finally get to play a non-playoff team in the Memphis Grizzlies, who are so decimated by injuries right now that they can’t possibly be competitive tonight. They are playing without Jaren Jackson Jr, Kyle Anderson, CJ Miles, Avery Bradley and Joakim Noah tonight.
It’s no wonder the Grizzlies have lost four of their last five games overall despite playing four non-playoff teams. They have played five of their last six against non-playoff teams as well. They are coming off a 13-point home loss to Minnesota, and a similar beat down can be expected in OKC’s favor tonight.
Memphis is 1-10 ATS in home games off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons. The Thunder are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Monday games. Oklahoma City is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on two days’ rest. The favorite is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Bet the Thunder Monday.
|03-24-19||Cal-Irvine +5 v. Oregon||54-73||Loss||-105||16 h 39 m||Show|
15* UC-Irvine/Oregon TBS Late-Night BAILOUT on UC-Irvine +5
The UC-Irvine Anteaters proved they were for real by beating Kansas State 70-64 outright as 4-point dogs. Now they further validate their 31-5 record this season by topping the red hot Oregon Ducks on Sunday in the Round of 32.
The Ducks are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers at this point due to going 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall. But the bulk of their run came in eight games against weak Pac-12 completion. They did beat Wisconsin 72-54, but they went on a huge run to close that game and shot 54.9% as a team while Wisconsin shot 33.3%. Everything that could go right for them, did.
The Anteaters aren’t getting enough respect for their 17-game winning streak, and they know it. They will continue to thrive in the underdog role here Sunday. This is a UC-Irvine team that beat the likes of Texas A&M and St. Mary’s in true road games in the non-conference. They aren’t afraid of taking down big conference teams.
UC-Irvine is 10-1 ATS when the total is 129.5 or less this season. This is expected to be a low-scoring affair, so getting points with the dog is always good when that’s the case. Irvine is 7-0 ATS vs. poor foul drawing teams that attempt 18 or fewer FT per game after 15-plus games this season. The Anteaters are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Roll with UC-Irvine Sunday.
|03-24-19||Ohio State v. Houston -5.5||Top||59-74||Win||100||15 h 53 m||Show|
20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston -5.5
I liked No. 6 seed Iowa State against Ohio State and lost. The Cyclones are 5.5-point favorites in that game, and they played their worst game of the season. Only 3 players showed up, and two of them were off the bench. It’s safe to say that if I liked Iowa State -5.5 against Ohio State, then I certainly like No. 3 seed Houston against the Buckeyes in the exact same price range as -5.5-point favorites.
The Cougars made easy work of Georgia State 84-55 in the Round of 64. That means they were able to rest their starters, which is a huge rest advantage over the Buckeyes, who were fighting tooth and nail to beat Iowa State until the closing seconds when the Cyclones missed a potential game-tying 3-pointer.
Houston also got to play the earlier game, so they have had a few extra hours to rest unlike Ohio State, which played the final game of the night in Tulsa. I always like backing teams in tournaments who got to play the early game and won in a blowout against teams that played the late game and were in a dog fight. The Cougars got a chance to watch Ohio State and scout them afterward.
Houston is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread this season. The Cougars remain undervalued because they lost outright to Cincinnati in the Big East title game. But you could see that coming from a mile away because they weren’t motivated after beating Cincinnati twice in the regular season. They are ‘all in’ now with their season on the line, and they will make easy work of the overmatched Buckeyes. Bet Houston Sunday.
|03-24-19||Buffalo +4 v. Texas Tech||58-78||Loss||-109||12 h 8 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Buffalo +4
The Buffalo Bulls own a 32-3 record identical to the Houston Cougars, who I also like Sunday. I’m backing the Bulls knowing that they kind of went through the motions in the regular season, and now they are putting both feet forward in the NCAA Tournament, living up to their potential.
That showed in a 91-74 win over Arizona State in their Round of 64 showdown. And now they take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who lost to West Virginia 74-79 in the Big 12 Tournament. This is a Red Raiders team that is getting a lot of respect for their run to the Elite 8 last season, but they lost almost everyone from that team.
Give Chris Beard credit for guiding this undermanned Texas Tech team to a share of the regular season Big 12 title. This is still a very good Red Raiders team, but they’re nowhere near as good as the team that made the Elite 8 last year. The only key player from that team is Jarrett Culver, and while he is having a monster season, he has to do too much on his own. Buffalo is a team that plays team basketball, and I’ll gladly take team basketball over one star any day of the week.
Buffalo is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 neutral court games with a total of 145 to 149.5. The Bulls are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games. Buffalo is 20-6-2 ATS in its last 28 neutral site games. Texas Tech is 2-6 ATS in its last eight non-conference games. Take Buffalo Sunday.
|03-24-19||Nuggets -1.5 v. Pacers||88-124||Loss||-109||11 h 3 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Denver Nuggets -1.5
The Denver Nuggets are neck-and-neck with the Golden State Warriors for 1st place in the Western Conference. They actually lead the Warriors by 0.5 games for 1st place. They know their best chance to beat them in a 7-game series is to have home-court advantage, so they should be max motivated in every game they play the rest of the way.
The Indiana Pacers are in a different position. They certainly want to get home games if they can, but there’s no doubt the Celtics catch them and pass them for 4th place before the season is over. The Pacers only hold a one-game lead over the Celtics for 4th place. And this is an Indiana team playing without its best player in Oladipo, and possibly missing Darren Collison Sunday, who is questionable with a quad strain.
Reality has certainly hit the Pacers hard here of late being without Oladipo. They have lost four straight and two of those losses came by double-digits. Meanwhile, this max-motivated Nuggets team has put themselves in this great position of getting the No. 1 seed in the West by winning six straight coming in. They’ll make it 7 in a row Sunday with a win and cover at Indiana.
The Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games. The Pacers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Indiana is 0-5 ATS in its last five games off a loss. Denver is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 trips to Indiana. Take the Nuggets Sunday.
|03-24-19||Iowa v. Tennessee -7.5||Top||77-83||Loss||-108||6 h 8 m||Show|
20* Iowa/Tennessee CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -7.5
The Iowa Hawkeyes are getting a lot of love from oddsmakers after upsetting Cincinnati 79-72 in the Round of 64. It’s easy to forget that Iowa was getting dominated by 13 points in that game, but had a huge comeback win. I know because I had Cincinnati, and it was a bad beat.
That’s why I’ll fade Iowa today knowing that they can’t possibly hang with a team the caliber of Tennessee today. The Hawkeyes have gone 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall and were huge money burners prior to that win over Cincinnati. I believe it was an aberration, and not the norm.
Tennessee, on the other hand, failed to cover in a 77-70 win over Colgate. They jumped out to a huge double-digit lead before Colgate came back and made it interesting. And because they failed to cover as 17.5-point favorites, they are now undervalued.
Iowa is 0-6 ATS after a game with five or fewer offensive rebounds over the last two seasons. Tennessee is 16-4 ATS in road games off a non-conference game over the last three seasons. The Hawkeyes are 2-7 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games. Iowa is 0-5 ATS in its last five games off a win. The Vols are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten foes. Bet Tennessee Sunday.
|03-23-19||Auburn -2 v. Kansas||Top||89-75||Win||100||12 h 11 m||Show|
20* Auburn/Kansas CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Auburn -2
The Auburn Tigers have now won nine straight games. They are as hot as any team in the tournament. And I think the fact that they only won by a single point against New Mexico State has them undervalued in the Round of 32. They led that game by 13 late and the Aggies made a ferocious comeback in the final minutes, taking advantage of several Auburn turnovers. It was a bad beat for Auburn backers like myself.
The Jayhawks, conversely, are getting a lot of respect for their 34-point win over Northeastern. While impressive, we cannot quickly forget their 12-point loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship. And Northeastern isn’t nearly as good as New Mexico State.
The fact of the matter is Auburn is a much more talented team than Kansas right now in their current state. The Jayhawks are still missing two of their best players, while the Tigers are fully healthy and loaded under Bruce Pearl. The Tigers know this is their chance to do something special, and they won’t let Kansas stand in the way today.
Kansas is 0-7 ATS in all Saturday games played away from home this season. The Jayhawks are 0-6 ATS off a win by 15 points or more this season. Kansas is 0-6 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last two seasons. These three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the Tigers. Bet Auburn Saturday.
|03-23-19||Minnesota +10.5 v. Michigan State||50-70||Loss||-104||10 h 13 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota +10.5
I was in my home town of Des Moines Thursday watching games all day at Wells Fargo Arena. I got to see Michigan State and Minnesota first-hand. And from my takeaways, I’m convinced Minnesota is catching too many points tonight.
First of all, it was essentially a home game for Minnesota as they had probably 3/4 of the fans in attendance. They crushed Louisville 86-76 in what was one of their most impressive performances of the season. That was a Top 25 Louisville team defensively, and the Gophers did whatever they wanted to, getting layup after layup and cashing in open 3-pointers time and time again.
I have been really impressed with Minnesota here down the stretch of the season. They beat Big Ten co-champ Purdue twice, topped what was a hot Penn State team, and also beat Louisville in four of their last six games. And now they’re up against a Michigan State team that I think they can be competitive with today due to being without both Joshua Langford and Kyle Ahrens, and Nick Ward clearly isn’t 100%.
I also watched Michigan State losing to Bradley for the majority of the game. That was a 55-55 game late before the Spartans pulled away for a misleading 76-65 victory. Bradley is not very good, and they had the Spartans on the ropes. Like they’ve done many times here down the stretch, the Spartans won the game in the last few minutes. And if they win today, it will be another nail biter against a Minnesota team playing its best basketball of the season.
Michigan State is 0-6 ATS after four straight games where opponent had 31 or fewer rebounds over the last two seasons. The Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games. The Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games. Plus, the Spartans were actually outnumbered by Bradley fans, so it felt like a home game for Bradley too. This will 100% be a home game for the Gophers. Take Minnesota Saturday.
|03-23-19||Heat v. Wizards -1.5||Top||113-108||Loss||-104||9 h 14 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -1.5
The Washington Wizards are still clinging on to hope of making the playoffs. The team they are chasing is the Miami Heat, and they get a shot at the Heat tonight. This is clearly a must-win game for the Wizards, and I fully expect them to lay it all on the line to get the victory at home Saturday.
The Wizards gave a big effort on Thursday but came up short in a 5-point home loss to Denver as 8.5-point dogs. They had yesterday off, and they also have two more days off after this game before embarking on a four-game road trip. That’s another reason they should be ‘all in’ tonight knowing they have two days off after this.
Miami is in a very difficult situation. The Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a loss at Milwaukee last night, and they’ll also be playing their 5th game in 7 days. Making matters worse is the fact that they are expected to be without both Justise Winslow and Rodney McGruder.
Washington is 17-5 ATS in home games when revenging a loss this season, including 13-3 ATS in home games when revenging a road loss. The Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. Washington is 22-13 ATS at home this season. Roll with the Wizards Saturday.
|03-22-19||St. Louis v. Virginia Tech -10||52-66||Win||100||50 h 50 m||Show|
15* Saint Louis/VA Tech TruTV Late-Night BAILOUT on Virginia Tech -10
Virginia Tech gets Justin Robinson back, their best player. They are the most dangerous 4-plus seed in the entire tournament now. Virginia Tech beat Duke late in the season, lost to Florida State in OT, and lost to Virginia by 6. They showed they could play with anyone down the stretch.
Virginia Tech is 10-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. They are winning by 17.5 points per game in this spot. The Hokies are 6-0 ATS in their last six Friday games. Virginia Tech is 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games. Roll with Virginia Tech Friday.
|03-22-19||Ohio State v. Iowa State -5.5||Top||62-59||Loss||-106||49 h 16 m||Show|
20* Ohio State/Iowa State TBS No-Brainer on Iowa State -5.5
Iowa State is fully healthy for basically the first time all season. And it was nice to see what they were capable of when fully healthy and focused in the Big 12 Tournament. They won their conference tournament by beating Baylor (by 17), Kansas State (by 4) and Kansas (by 12).
I think the Cyclones are one of the most talented teams in the country, and they are certainly under-seeded. I fully expect them to make a deep run. They have rabid fans that will travel the six hours to Tulsa, and if they make the Sweet 16, it’s only three hours from Ames to Kansas City, which is where the Big 12 Tournament was held.
Ohio State doesn’t even belong in the NCAA Tournament. The Buckeyes went just 19-14 this season nd struggled mightily down the stretch. They went just 3-7 SU & 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their three wins coming over Northwestern, Iowa and Indiana. They went 0-5 against NCAA Tournament teams not named Iowa during that stretch with all five losses coming by 6 points or more, and three by double-digits.
Ohio State is 0-6 ATS when playing with five or six days’ rest over the last two seasons. Iowa State is 8-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the last three years. The Buckeyes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games. Ohio State is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Big 12 opponents. These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the Cyclones. Take Iowa State Friday.
|03-22-19||Liberty v. Mississippi State -6||80-76||Loss||-110||47 h 7 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -6
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are on a roll to close the season. They are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games overall and their only losses came on the road to Auburn and Tennessee (twice).
Plays against an underdog (Liberty) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 points or more, a top-level team (80% wins or more) playing a team with a winning record are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS since 1997.
The Bulldogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Friday games. Mississippi State is 4-1 ATS in its last five NCAA Tournament games. The Bulldogs are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games off an ATS loss. Roll with Mississippi State Friday.
|03-22-19||Colgate v. Tennessee -17.5||70-77||Loss||-104||43 h 31 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Afternoon Line Mistake on Tennessee -17.5
Tennessee plays Colgate. Colgate has no chance of staying within 17.5 points of Tennessee. The Vols will roll by 20-plus in this showdown.
The Vols are highly motivated following a bad loss to Auburn in the SEC Tournament. Colgate lost to New Jersey Tech in the non-conference, and they lost to Syracuse by 21 on the road and South Florida by 10 on the road. They also lost by double-digits on the road to Penn State and Pitt, while also losing to Navy on the road.
Tennessee is 8-1 ATS after a a game with 5 or less offensive over the last 3 seasons. The Vols are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following double-digit loss. Bet the Vols Friday.
|03-22-19||Iowa v. Cincinnati -3||Top||79-72||Loss||-109||40 h 46 m||Show|
25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati -3
This is my favorite play of any of the Round of 64 games. This is also the first game on the board Friday, so start your day a winner. I really think Cincinnati is under-seeded getting a #7 seed. They went 28-6 this season in what turned out to be a loaded American Athletic Conference.
Four teams made the NCAA Tournament from the AAC in Cincinnati, Houston, UCF and Temple. And the Bearcats got their revenge from two regular season losses to Houston with an impressive 69-57 win over the Cougars in the AAC title game.
There’s probably not a player in the tournament I trust more with the game on the line than Cincinnati’s Jarron Cumberland. He averages nearly 19 PPG and can get his own shot whenever he wants. But this is a deep Bearcats team with six players averaging at least 8 PPG.
One of my favorite things about this game is that the committee basically made up for under-seeding the Bearcats by basically giving them a home game. This game will be played in Columbus, Ohio, which is just a 90-minute drive from Cincinnati’s campus.
They’ll be up against an Iowa team that really faded down the stretch, which is become a common theme for them in the Fran McCaffery era. The Hawkeyes are just 4-6 SU & 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Their only four wins came against Northwestern, Rutgers, Indiana & Illinois, which are four of the worst teams in the Big Ten.
The Hawkeyes needed buzzer beaters to beat both Northwestern and Rutgers, and they needed a late 3-pointer to force overtime against Indiana at home, where they eventually won. They were blasted by 21 points by Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament.
Cincinnati is a team that plays similar to the way Michigan does. They are a physical team that slows down the tempo, always looking for the best shot, and they’ll make Iowa play defense for 30 seconds. The Hawkeyes don’t play much defense.
Iowa is better against teams that want to run with them, and Cincinnati does not fit the bill. The Hawkeyes have been terrible against teams that slow it down and control the tempo. And that’s how I see this game playing out. I also don’t expect Iowa fans to travel that well because they have lost faith in this team down the stretch.
Iowa is 3-14 ATS in road games off a loss over the last three seasons. The Hawkeyes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight eight NCAA Tournament games. I think Cincinnati is by far the superior team, and with home-court advantage, this is a very short number to have to lay with them. Bet Cincinnati Friday.
|03-21-19||Montana v. Michigan -14.5||55-74||Win||100||25 h 18 m||Show|
15* Montana/Michigan TNT No-Brainer on Michigan -14.5
Montana is a popular underdog, but they shouldn’t be. This line has been bet from 16 down to 15 and 14.5 even in some places. I think the value is there to pull the trigger on the Michigan Wolverines in this one.
Montana is 137th in the Kenpom rankings and played the 301st-toughest schedule in the country. Michigan is 5th in the Kenpom rankings and played the 19th-toughest schedule.
When Montana took a step up in class in the non-conference, they lost badly. Their two toughest opponents in the non-conference were Creighton and Arizona, two teams that didn’t even make the NCAA Tournament. Well, they lost by 26 to Creighton and by 19 to Arizona. Michigan is far and away the toughest team that the Grizzlies will have faced, and that’s why they should be able to cover 15 here.
Michigan is 9-1 ATS off a conference loss over the last two seasons. The Wolverines are 6-0 ATS in road games after scoring 60 points or less over the last two seasons. Michigan is 11-1 ATS in all games following a loss over the last two years. The Wolverines are 40-19-4 ATS in their last 63 neutral site games. Travis DeCuire is 7-17 ATS in all tournament games as the coach of Montana. The Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. Montana is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. Big Ten opponents. Bet Michigan Thursday.
|03-21-19||Seton Hall v. Wofford -2.5||68-84||Win||100||25 h 10 m||Show|
15* Seton Hall/Wofford CBS Late-Night BAILOUT on Wofford -2.5
Wofford is 29-4 and ranked in the Top 20 for good reason. They are also 21st in the Kenpom rankings, well ahead of Seton Hall in 56th. They Terriers are favored for a reason here, and they should be bigger favorites to boot.
Wofford played one of the tougher non-conference schedules of all the mid majors, checking in at 121st in strength of schedule. Their four losses this season came to UNC, Oklahoma, Kansas and Mississippi State, which are four NCAA Tournament teams. They also won at South Carolina by 20, and beat UNC-Greensboro three times by 29, 30 and 12 points, and that’s a Greensboro team that was on the bubble.
It’s time to ’sell high’ on Seton Hall, which won four of its last five games while going 5-0 ATS to punch its ticket into the Big Dance. This is a Pirates team that is way too reliant on one player in Myles Powell, who averages 22.9 PPG. They only have one other double-digit scorer, and that’s Myles Cale at 10.3 PPG. Wofford has a deadly trio that all average 13.2 PPG or more, led by Fletcher Magee (20.5 PPG).
Wofford is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall. The Terriers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. The Pirates are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss. Take Wofford Thursday.
|03-21-19||Murray State v. Marquette -3||83-64||Loss||-117||20 h 26 m||Show|
15* Murray State/Marquette TBS ANNIHILATOR on Marquette -3
There’s just too much love for JA Morant and the Murray State Racers in this one. They are a very popular underdog pick because they won their conference tournament and beat Belmont in the title game. As a result, this line has been bet from 4.5 down to 3.5 and even 3 in some spots.
I think it’s time to ’sell high’ on Murray State and ‘buy low’ on Marquette, which the betting public wants nothing to do with after losing five of their final six games of the season. But all five losses came by single-digits as they finally had some bad luck in close games after having a lot of good luck in close games prior to that. This is still a 24-9 Golden Eagles team and arguably the best team in the Big East.
Murray State did not impress me at all in non-conference. They lost the two toughest games they played to Alabama and Auburn, and I would argue that Marquette will be the best team they have faced yet, if it’s not Auburn. The Racers played the 272nd toughest schedule in the country, while Marquette played the 57th.
Marquette is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better after 15-plus games this season. The Golden Eagles are 13-3 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread over the last three seasons. They are winning by 14.4 points per game in this spot. The Golden Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games. Roll with Marquette Thursday.
|03-21-19||New Mexico State v. Auburn -5.5||Top||77-78||Loss||-105||17 h 1 m||Show|
20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Auburn -5.5
There’s just way too much love for New Mexico State in this game. The Aggies’ 30-4 record looks great, and that’s why the public is jumping all over them, pushing this line down from 7 to 5.5. It’s a complete mistake.
Auburn is 18th in the NET rankings, while New Mexico State is 40th. The Aggies are getting docked because they played the 244th-ranked schedule in the country. Auburn played the 24th-toughest. Auburn is 13th in the Kenpom rankings while New Mexico State is 53rd.
When the Aggies stepped up in class in the non-conference, they lost. They lost to St. Mary’s, Kansas, and Drake. They also lost to Cal Baptist. Their best wins came against Washington State twice, and the Cougars were one of the worst teams in the Pac-12.
Auburn comes in playing its best basketball of the season. The Tigers have won eight straight coming in, including two victories over Tennessee, and wins over fellow NCAA Tournament teams Mississippi State and Florida. This is going to be a huge talent mismatch in their favor, and I’m not worried at all about them having a letdown from winning the SEC Tournament.
New Mexico State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven as a neutral court dog of 3.5 to 6 points. It is losing by 12.4 points per game on average in this spot. The Aggies are 1-7 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season. The Aggies are 1-5 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games. Take Auburn Thursday.
|03-21-19||Minnesota v. Louisville -5||Top||86-76||Loss||-105||16 h 47 m||Show|
20* Minnesota/Louisville CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -5
The Louisville Cardinals are a team I expect to make a deep run in the tournament with wins over Minnesota and Michigan State to start it off. There’s a reason behind my theory that this team is much better than its record would indicate.
The Cardinals beat UNC by 21 on the road, blew a 20-point lead at home to Duke, and played Virginia tough twice. They also already beat Michigan State in the non-conference and beat VA Tech on the road. If they can play with and beat all of those teams, then they are capable of beating anyone in the country. They should make easy work of Minnesota Thursday.
The Golden Gophers really struggled when they stepped up in class this year. I mean, Minnesota is 61st in the NET rankings, while Louisville is 22nd. They went just 5-9 against NCAA Tournament teams, including their 49-76 laugher against Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament.
Minnesota ranks toward the bottom of college basketball in all major offensive statistical categories. They shoot just 43.7% as a team, including 32.1% from 3-point range while averaging just 5 made 3-pointers per game. That’s why they cannot be trusted because they go on too many scoring draughts.
The Golden Gophers are 1-5 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games. Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in its last four non-conference games. Louisville is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS loss. The Cardinals are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big Ten opponents. Bet Louisville Thursday.
|03-20-19||Arizona State v. St. John's +2.5||74-65||Loss||-104||12 h 54 m||Show|
15* ASU/St. John’s First Four ANNIHILATOR on St. John’s +2.5
I really like the talent on this St. John’s team. And I think they should be favored over Arizona State in this non-conference First Four showdown. The Pac-12 was terrible this season, and I just don’t trust the Sun Devils, especially with some of the losses they had in non-conference.
Arizona State lost by 16 at Vanderbilt, and Vanderbilt didn’t win a single SEC game this season. They also lost to Princeton and had a rather disappointing conference schedule, including their 21-point home loss to Washington State as 15.5-point favorites.
St. John’s has been battling injuries here down the stretch, which helps explain their skid to end the season. But now they are fully healthy and ready for the NCAA Tournament. Led by Shamorie Ponds (19.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG), Mustapha Heron (14.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG and Li Figueroa (14.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG), the Johnnies have a potent trio that can match up with anyone in the country. Not to mention, both Marvin Clark II (10.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG) and Justin Simon (10.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG) both average double-digits as well.
St. John’s is 11-2 ATS after having lost five or six of their last seven games over the last three seasons. The Red Storm are 32-12 ATS in their last 44 road games off a loss by 15 points or more. The Sun Devils are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. Big East opponents. Roll with St. John’s Wednesday.
|03-20-19||Celtics v. 76ers -2.5||Top||115-118||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
20* Celtics/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia -2.5
The Philadelphia 76ers rested Joel Embiid last night and still beat the Hornets. Now they’ll have Embiid back for this game against the Boston Celtics, which helps ease the effect of the back-to-back situation.
No player is more important to their team than Embiid. He is coming off a 40-point, 15-rebound effort in an impressive road win over the Bucks. And he averages 27 points, 14 rebounds and 2 blocks per game this season.
The 76ers should be highly motivated for this game. They’ve already lost the first three meetings of the season with the Celtics, and they desperately want to avoid the season sweep. Now, they get the Celtics in Philadelphia, where they are 28-9 on the season.
The Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Boston is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record. The Celtics are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on one days’ rest. The 76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the 76ers Wednesday.
|03-20-19||Norfolk State +16 v. Alabama||80-79||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
15* NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Norfolk State +16
Alabama has high hopes of making the NCAA Tournament down the stretch. But they went just 1-4 in their final five games and missed out. Now, they have to ’settle’ for the NIT, and I just don’t think they were happy to be here. That’s going to make it very difficult for them to cover this huge 16-point spread Wednesday night.
Norfolk State is happy to be here. It’s a Norfolk team that is 21-13 on the season, including 16-3 in their last 19 games overall with their three losses coming by 3, 3 and 8 points. They covered in road losses to Michigan and South Carolina earlier this season, and they are certainly capable of hanging with Alabama.
Plays against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (Alabama) in a game involving two average defensive teams that give up 67-74 PPG, after 15-plus games, after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS since 1997.
Alabama is 2-9 ATS after failing to cover three of its last four games this season. The Crimson Tide are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Alabama is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games. Take Norfolk State Wednesday.
|03-19-19||Belmont v. Temple +3.5||Top||81-70||Loss||-110||8 h 18 m||Show|
20* Belmont/Temple First Four No-Brainer on Temple +3.5
It’s the final season for Fran Dunphy at Temple. He got the Owls to the big dance, and he doesn’t want his run to end this soon. Look for this veteran Owls team to ‘win one for the gipper’ tonight. They went 23-9 this season with eight of their nine losses coming by 10 points or less, so they were competitive in every game they played this season other than one.
Dunphy will be making his 17th NCAA Tournament appearance. He has nine at Penn and eight at Temple to tie former Owls coach John Chaney for the most by a Big 5 coach. And it has already been a special season for the Owls as they’ve gone 9-2 in games decided by 5 points or less, including 4-0 in overtime contest. In what I expect to be a close game, the Owls will make the play down the stretch to get it done.
Belmont is a nice story getting an at-large berth after losing to JA Morant and Murray State 65-77 in the Ohio Valley Championship Game. However, this team just doesn’t have many big wins at all in non-conference. Their best win came at UCLA, and the Bruins are way down this season. Four of their five losses came by double-digits to Purdue, Jacksonville State (twice) and Murray State. They also lost by 8 at Wisconsin-Green Bay.
Temple is 8-0 ATS in road games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or more of their attempts over the last two seasons. The Owls are 8-1 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game over the last two years. The Owls defend the 3-ball well, giving up just 32.7% on the season, which will be a key to victory for them here against a Belmont team that shoots 28 3-pointers per game. Bet Temple Tuesday.
|03-19-19||Arkansas v. Providence -6||84-72||Loss||-109||8 h 3 m||Show|
15* NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence -6
Arkansas’ best player in Daniel Gafford has decided to skip the NIT to prepare for the NBA Draft. That’s a huge blow for the Razorbacks as Gafford leads the team in scoring (16.9 PPG), rebounding (8.7 RPG) and blocked shots (2.0 BPG). They will really miss his presence inside.
Not having Gafford makes this a great matchup for a Providence team that doesn’t rely too much on the 3-pointer to win games. They like to get inside and pound opponents, and they should be able to have their way with the Razorbacks inside now.
Arkansas is 2-9 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last two seasons. The Razorbacks are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games off an ATS loss. Arkansas is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 vs. Big East opponents. The Friars are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. Take Providence Tuesday.
|03-19-19||76ers v. Hornets +2||118-114||Loss||-115||6 h 8 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets +2
The Charlotte Hornets really need wins right now. They are 2.5 games back of 8th place Miami for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Now they’re back home after a tough four-game road trip and should be able to take advantage as they are 21-14 at home this season.
This is a great spot to fade the 76ers. They are coming off a huge upset win at Milwaukee on Sunday, and they have Boston on deck tomorrow night. They are in a letdown spot off that win over the Bucks, and they are also in a sandwich spot with the Celtics on deck.
The 76ers have done the Hornets a favor by deciding to rest their best player in Joel Embiid (27.3 PPG, 13.6 RPG, 2.0 BPG). I’m not sure there’s another player in the NBA that is more important to their team than Embiid. He had 40 and 15 against Milwaukee the other night.
Philadelphia is 6-18 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season. Charlotte has lost by 2, 1 and 3 points in its three meetings with Philadelphia this season with two of those coming in overtime. It’s safe to say the Hornets want to exact some revenge as well and avoid the season sweep. Roll with the Hornets Tuesday.
|03-18-19||Jazz v. Wizards +6||Top||116-95||Loss||-109||6 h 56 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Washington Wizards +6
The Washington Wizards are fighting to stay alive in the Eastern Conference playoff race. They are 3.5 games out of 8th place. They have kept themselves alive by going 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. This is been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA down the stretch.
The Utah Jazz are coming off three straight wins and covers over Phoenix, Minnesota and Brooklyn. I think they are overvalued now, and it’s time to ’sell high’ on them tonight as they are laying 6 points on the road here. The Jazz are just .500 on the road this season, while the Wizards are 21-13 SU & 21-12-1 ATS at home.
The Wizards are 7-0 ATS in home games after scoring 120 points or more this season. Washington is 8-1 ATS in home games after having covered four or five of their last six against the spread this season. Utah is 7-15 ATS after having won three of its last four games this season. Bet the Wizards Monday.
|03-17-19||Hawks v. Magic -7.5||Top||91-101||Win||100||17 h 6 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -7.5
The Atlanta Hawks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a tough 120-129 loss at Boston on Saturday. They won’t have much left in the tank for the Orlando Magic today after losing that shootout.
The Magic need wins like blood. They are in 9th place in the East, just one game back of the Heat for the 8th and final playoff spot. And they come in rested and ready to go on two days’ rest.
The Magic have certainly had the Hawks’ number in their two meetings this season. They won 122-103 at Atlanta on January 21st as 2-point dogs. They also blew out the Hawks 124-108 on the road as 1-point favorites on February 10th.
It should be more of the same given the situational and motivational advantages the Magic have in this one. And the Magic finally get the Hawks at home for the first time this season. Bet the Magic Sunday.
|03-17-19||Michigan +1 v. Michigan State||Top||60-65||Loss||-109||15 h 36 m||Show|
20* Michigan/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan +1
I love the situation for the Michigan Wolverines in the Big Ten Championship. They are playing with double-revenge after losing both regular season meetings to the hated rival Spartans.
The Wolverines blew a big lead in the first half and lost 63-75 at Michigan State in the regular season finale, which handed the Spartans the regular season title. And now they could at least feel good about winning the Big Ten Tournament, and it would be sweet revenge.
I also like the fact that the Wolverines made easy work of Minnesota yesterday in a dominant 76-49 win. That allowed them to clear the bench early as most of their starters averaged under 30 minutes. They’ll be as fresh as possible for the championship game now.
The Wolverines are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Michigan is 40-18-4 ATS in its last 62 neutral site games. The Wolverines are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 Sunday games. The Spartans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games. Take Michigan Sunday.
|03-17-19||Auburn v. Tennessee -4.5||84-64||Loss||-109||12 h 1 m||Show|
15* Auburn/Tennessee SEC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -4.5
I like the spot for the Tennessee Vols, who have certainly proven their meddle with wins over Mississippi State and Kentucky to make the SEC Championship Game. Those are two much stronger opponents than what Auburn has faced.
Yet, Auburn found themselves tied with South Carolina and needed to pull away late in the quarterfinals. And the Tigers barely survived in a 65-62 win over Florida yesterday. They also only beat Missouri by 10 in their opener. I’ve been much more impressed with Tennessee than Auburn in the SEC Tournament.
Now, Tennessee has a shot a quick revenge after losing 80-84 at Auburn in the regular season finale on March 9th. They get a shot at revenge just a week later, and I fully expect them to get it with a win and cover in the title game. Roll with Tennessee Sunday.
|03-16-19||Blazers v. Spurs -2||Top||103-108||Win||100||10 h 11 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -2
The San Antonio Spurs have been on fire since returning from their annual Rodeo Road trip. They are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. And considering they are 27-7 at home this season, they should be more than 2-point home favorites over the Blazers tonight.
San Antonio will be paying the 2nd of a back-to-back, but it’s only their 2nd game in four days because they had two days off prior to the Knicks game last night. And they beat the Knicks by 26, which allowed them to rest their starters late and save them for tonight.
The Blazers are also playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 122-110 win in New Orleans last night. Now they have the long flight to San Antonio to deal with, while the Spurs got to stay at home and sleep in their own beds. That’s a huge advantage for the home team.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Spurs won their two most recent home meetings with the Blazers by 13 and 11 points. San Antonio is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home meetings with Portland.
The Spurs are 17-1 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this season. They are winning by 14.5 points per game on average in this spot. Bet the Spurs Saturday.
|03-16-19||Florida State +8.5 v. Duke||Top||63-73||Loss||-110||10 h 9 m||Show|
25* ACC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida State +8.5
The Florida State Seminoles are one of the most underrated teams in the country. I picked them to win the ACC Tournament coming in, and I’m certainly sticking with them here as 8.5-point dogs to the Duke Blue Devils in the Championship Game.
The Seminoles are now 14-1 in their last 15 games overall with their only loss coming on the road to UNC. They upset Virginia Tech in the quarterfinals and then pulled off an even more impressive 10-point upset win over Virginia as 8.5-point dogs.
Now, they face a Duke team that is coming off a huge win over UNC in the closing seconds. I like the fact that FSU got to play the early game and then watch the Blue Devils in the late game. They will have scouted them well and will be the more ready team for this matchup.
Few teams in the country have the length that FSU does, and that’s why they matchup well with the Blue Devils. They also have one of the deepest teams in the country, so they can handle three games in three days better than Duke, which plays its starters almost exclusively. And there’s no doubt the Seminoles want revenge after losing at the buzzer to Duke 78-80 in their lone meeting this season. Florida State is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Duke is 2-8 ATS in road games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game this season. The Blue Devils are 1-7 ATS vs. good rebounding teams that average 4-plus boards more than their opponents after 15-plus games this season. The Seminoles are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. The Blue Devils are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win. Bet Florida State Saturday.
|03-16-19||Iowa State +2.5 v. Kansas||78-66||Win||100||8 h 45 m||Show|
15* Iowa State/Kansas Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +2.5
It’s nice to see Iowa State play to their full potential now that they’ve entered the postseason basically fully healthy. And when they are locked in, they can beat anyone in the country. They beat Baylor by 17 and then topped Kansas State yesterday.
I like the fact that Iowa State played the early game yesterday and got to scout Kansas after. And I also like the fact that the Jayhawks are very beatable due to all their injuries. And they possibly suffered another blow yesterday as Quintin Grimes, who had 18 points and 5 made 3-pointers yesterday, left the WVU game with a knee injury and won’t be 100% even if he plays.
Iowa State showed well against Kansas in their two meetings this season. The Cyclones won by 17 at home and only lost by 4 on the road as 5-point dogs. Iowa State has won 3 of the last 5 Big 12 Tournaments, and I think they make it 4 out of 6 as the Jayhawks won’t have home-court advantage. Iowa State fans travel incredibly as it’s just a three-hour drive to Kansas City from Ames. Don’t be surprised if this feels like a home game for them tonight with the crowd in their favor.
The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Jayhawks. Their domination of this team continues today as the wrong team is favored in this matchup. Roll with Iowa State Saturday.
|03-15-19||Duke -3 v. North Carolina||74-73||Loss||-109||10 h 37 m||Show|
15* Duke/UNC ACC No-Brainer on Duke -3
Duke is going to be highly motivated today. They lost both regular season meetings with the rival Tar Heels. Now, they want revenge in a big way.
And they should get it now that they have their best player back in Zion Williamson, who showed no ill-effects of the injury yesterday, scoring 29 points on 13-of-13 shooting and grabbing 14 rebounds in a 12-point win over Syracuse.
It’s revenge time today folks. Take Duke Friday.
|03-15-19||Bucks v. Heat +5.5||Top||113-98||Loss||-115||8 h 9 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Heat +5.5
The Miami Heat are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now. They have won five of their last six, including a 34-point win over the Pistons last time out. They are rested and ready to go as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.
The Heat are playing well enough to hang with or possibly upset the Milwaukee Bucks, who have the best record in the NBA. That has them overvalued here down the stretch.
A big reason for the solid play by the Heat of late has been the return of PG Goran Dragic from injury. He makes all the difference for this team, especially offensively. The Heat have scored 114 points or more in six of their last nine games overall, and 104-plus in eight of those.
Miami is 21-10 ATS as an underdog this season. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Bucks. Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings with Milwaukee. Bet the Heat Friday.
|03-15-19||Iowa State -2 v. Kansas State||Top||63-59||Win||100||7 h 59 m||Show|
25* Big 12 Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State -2
The Iowa State Cyclones are the most talented team in the Big 12, period. And they entered the Big 12 Tournament way undervalued due to losing their final three games of the regular season.
But a big reason for their struggles late were injuries and suspensions. Now, the Cyclones are fully healthy and locked in and focused now that postseason play has arrived. They showed their potential in a 83-66 beat down of Baylor yesterday, and now they’ll continue their strong play against Kansas State today.
The Wildcats had a great season earning a share of the Big 12 title. But they aren’t the same team they were in the regular season. They needed a big comeback win to beat TCU yesterday, and they’re without their most important player in senior Dean Wade. He means everything to this team, and without him they aren’t going to beat a team that caliber of the Cyclones.
Iowa State beat Kansas State by 14 on the road in their most recent meeting this season, and blew a double-digit lead and lost at the buzzer in their first meeting at home. The Cyclones have won 3 of the last 5 Big 12 Tournaments, and a big reason for it is because they bring such a huge following from Ames, which is just a three-hour drive to Kansas City.
Iowa State is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games as neutral court favorite of 3 points or less or PK. Bet Iowa State Friday.
|03-15-19||Auburn v. South Carolina +8||73-64||Loss||-108||4 h 30 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Carolina +8
The South Carolina Gamecocks were one of the most underrated teams in the SEC this season. They had a bad non-conference, but rebounded to go 11-7 in SEC play and actually earned the No. 4 seed and a double-bye. That’s huge, and it means they haven’t played yet in the tournament, so they’re rested and ready to go.
Auburn also finished 11-7 in SEC play, but the Gamecocks won the tiebreaker due to beating Auburn 80-77 at home in their lone meeting. That also means Auburn had to play yesterday, and it certainly wasn’t easy as they beat Missouri by 10.
The Tigers won’t have much left in the tank for the Gamecocks, and given SC’s rest advantage, they should not be laying 8 points in this matchup. It’s also worth noting that SC gets 2nd-leading scorer AJ Lawson back from injury in time for the tournament, and that’s not even being factored into the line at all. He’s huge for this team.
The Gamecocks are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 SEC games, which just shows how undervalued they’ve been. The Gamecocks are also 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Tigers. The underdog is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings. Take South Carolina Friday.
|03-15-19||Nebraska v. Wisconsin -7.5||Top||62-66||Loss||-110||3 h 15 m||Show|
25* Big Ten Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Wisconsin -7.5
This one is as simply as it gets folks. Wisconsin received a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament by earning the No. 4 seed. So the Badgers are rested and ready to go.
Meanwhile, Nebraska has had to play two hard-fought games the last two days, beating Rutgers 68-61 Wednesday and Maryland 69-61 Thursday. The Huskers won’t have anything left in the tank today, especially since they are dealing with injuries and are short-handed.
The Badgers won their lone meeting with Nebraska 62-51 on the road. Now they’re only laying 7.5 here on a neutral in a great spot. Bet Wisconsin Friday.
|03-14-19||Cavs v. Magic -7.5||Top||91-120||Win||100||8 h 20 m||Show|
20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -7.5
The Orlando Magic need wins and they need them in a hurry. They are currently in 9th place in the East, two games behind Miami for the 8th and final playoff spot. So motivation won’t be a problem for them moving forward.
The good news for the Magic is that they get to beat up on the 17-51 Cleveland Cavaliers today. It’s a Cavs team that is depleted by injuries right now. They are expected to be without Dellavedova and Nance Jr. today, and they were already missing three key guys. They could be without more, too.
Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Orlando) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, off two or more consecutive road losses are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Magic Thursday.
|03-14-19||St. John's v. Marquette -2||Top||54-86||Win||100||8 h 17 m||Show|
20* St. John’s/Marquette Big East No-Brainer on Marquette -2
I think it’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on Marquette, which lost four straight games to close the season. Now the Golden Eagles are only laying 2 points here to St. John’s when they should be more heavily favored.
Plus, the Golden Eagles are rested while the Red Storm had to play yesterday in a tough 82-74 win over DePaul. I’ll gladly back the more rested, better team laying a short number here in this Big East showdown.
Adding to Marquette’s motivation is the fact that it lost both meetings with St. John’s this season. So off four straight losses, and with double-revenge, the Golden Eagles couldn’t possibly be more motivated than they are today.
Marquette is 6-0 ATS vs. teams who average 33 or fewer rebounds per game over the last two seasons. St. John’s is 3-12 ATS in neutral site games over the last three seasons. The Golden Eagles are 29-12 ATS when revenging a loss as a home favorite since 1997. Take Marquette Thursday.
|03-14-19||Colorado v. Oregon State||Top||73-58||Loss||-109||7 h 57 m||Show|
25* Pac-12 Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Oregon State PK
Oregon State had yesterday off while Colorado struggled to beat lowly California 56-51 yesterday. So the Beavers have the rest advantage, and they should be favored against Colorado because of it.
After all, Oregon State already beat Colorado 76-74 on the road in their first and only meeting this season. And this is a veteran Beavers team that I really like, especially their trio of Tinkle and the Thompson brothers who combine to average nearly 51 points per game.
Colorado is 1-8 ATS in road games when playing its 2nd game in 3 days. The Buffaloes are 0-7 ATS in road games after having won four of their last five games over the last three seasons. Colorado is 1-11 ATS in road games off three or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. Oregon State is 8-1 ATS in conference road games this season, playing its best basketball on the highway. Bet Oregon State Thursday.
|03-14-19||Nebraska v. Maryland -5.5||69-61||Loss||-105||5 h 36 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Maryland -5.5
The Nebraska Cornhuskers are just 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall. Their poor run started after Isaac Copeland (14.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG) suffered a season-ending injury. And now the injury situation has only gotten worse for the Huskers.
They are also without both Thomas Allen (8.7 PPG, 2.8 RPG), Nana Akenten (4.3 PPG, 2.5 RPG) and Amir Harris (2.2 PPG, 2.5 RPG). So they are now down two starters and two of their first players off the bench.
The Huskers managed to overcome these injuries to beat lowly Rutgers yesterday, but they won’t be so fortunate today. They’ll now be paying for a 2nd consecutive day, and that’s really tough for a team like them that is lacking any depth. Maryland should take advantage and put the Huskers out of their misery.
Maryland beat Nebraska 60-45 on the road in their most recent meeting. The Terrapins are talented enough to make a deep run in this tournament, and it starts with a win and cover against the Huskers today. Roll with Maryland Thursday.
|03-14-19||Virginia Tech v. Florida State +1.5||63-65||Win||100||4 h 19 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State +1.5
The Florida State Seminoles earned a double-bye with the No. 4 seed in the ACC. That’s a huge advantage for them, and one that will come into play in a big way today to give them the edge they need to beat Virginia Tech.
The Hokies had to play yesterday and beat Miami 71-56. They were forced to play their starters significant minutes because the Hurricanes won the second half. And I don’t expect them to have much left in the tank, especially since they’re already short-handed without Justin Robinson and Chris Clark.
Florida State beat Virginia Tech 73-64 as 5-point favorites in their lone meeting this season. And now they’re underdogs despite having such a huge rest advantage? Give me a break.
The Seminoles are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games overall with their only loss coming on the road to UNC. And they just have to win this game straight up to cover. That won’t be a problem. Bet Florida State Thursday.
|03-13-19||Pittsburgh v. Syracuse -7||59-73||Win||100||12 h 35 m||Show|
15* Pitt/Syracuse ACC Late-Night BAILOUT on Syracuse -7
The Syracuse Orange had yesterday off while the Pitt Panthers had to play Boston College, beating them 80-70 in a shootout. I’ll gladly back the more rested, better team tonight in the Orange laying only 7 points to the pitiful Panthers. It’s also tough to prepare for this Syracuse zone on zero days’ rest, which is a hidden advantage for them.
Pittsburgh went just 4-15 SU & 5-13-1 ATS in ACC play this season. I think they’re starting to get some respect after winning their last two games after previously going 0-13 SU & 0-12-1 ATS in their last 13 games prior. But those two wins came against Notre Dame and BC, two of the worst teams in the ACC.
I also think we are ‘buying low’ on Syracuse, which lost four of its final five games of the regular season and now certainly comes into the ACC Tournament undervalued. They also come in with a chip on their shoulder. Those four losses came to Duke, UNC, Virginia and Clemson on the road, so they were forgivable considering they were dogs in all four.
Pitt is 1-8 ATS revenging a loss where they scored less than 60 points this season. The Orange beat the Panthers by 11 at home and by 9 on the road in their two meetings this season. Syracuse is 7-1 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more this season. The Orange are 6-0 ATS vs. teams who average 12 or fewer assists per game this season. They are beating these teams by 22.2 points per game on average. The Panthers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. Take Syracuse Wednesday.
|03-13-19||Pistons v. Heat -1.5||Top||74-108||Win||100||10 h 56 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1.5
The Miami Heat come in playing well having won four of their last five games overall. And they’re coming off a blowout loss to the Raptors in their only defeat, which I think adds to the line value we are getting on the Heat at home tonight in a game they basically just have to win to cover.
A big reason for Miami’s strong play of late has been the return of PG Goran Dragic from injury. They are hitting on all cylinders offensively with him running the show now. The Heat have scored at least 114 points in six of their last eight games overall.
The Pistons are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers after a recent stretch of strong play, and I think it’s time to ’sell high’ on them tonight. They will be playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days, while the Heat come in on two days’ rest. And the home team has won five of the last seven meetings in this series.
Detroit is 8-22 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons. Miami is 21-8 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last three years. The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. Bet the Heat Wednesday.
|03-13-19||Notre Dame v. Louisville -7.5||Top||53-75||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Louisville -7.5
The Louisville Cardinals are just the type of team that could make a run in the ACC Tournament. They have nearly beaten both Duke and Virginia this season, losing to those two by a combined 6 points, and they also beat UNC on the road. This is the scariest team in the ACC that doesn’t get a double-bye.
I look for the Cardinals to make easy work of Notre Dame Wednesday night. They had yesterday off, while Notre Dame played in a hard-fought 78-71 win over Georgia Tech yesterday. I’ll gladly back the rested, better team only laying 7.5 points in this matchup.
Notre Dame has a laundry list of injuries right now that have really given them no depth. They are missing 3rd-leading scorer D.J. Harvey (10.7 PPG), 5th-leading scorer Rex Pflueger (8.1 PPG) and could be without Nate Laszewiski (7.1 PPG), who is questionable. They just don’t stand much of a chance of even being competitive against the Cardinals tonight.
Louisville beat Notre Dame by 14 in their lone meeting this season. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in road games off a road loss over the last three seasons. The Fighting Irish are 1-11 ATS after going over the total in their previous game this season. The Cardinals are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a losing record, including 6-0 ATS in their last six tries. The Fighting Irish are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games off an ATS win. Bet Louisville Wednesday.
|03-13-19||Nebraska v. Rutgers +2.5||68-61||Loss||-104||9 h 49 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers +2.5
The Nebraska Cornhuskers are just 3-11 SU & 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall. This poor run started after Isaac Copeland (14.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG) suffered a season-ending injury. And now the injury situation has only gotten worse for them heading into the Big Ten Tournament.
The Huskers are also expected to be without Thomas Allen (8.7 PPG, 2.8 RPG), Nana Akenten (4.3 PPG, 2.5 RPG) and Amir Harris (2.2 PPG, 2.5 RPG). So they are now down two starters and two of their first players off the bench. They’re in a world of hurt right now heading into the Big Ten Tournament.
Rutgers has been one of the most underrated teams in the country here down the stretch. The Scarlet Knights have gone 6-7 SU & 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games to close the season. That includes a 76-69 home win over Nebraska.
The Scarlet Knights are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Rutgers is 6-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games. Nebraska is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 neutral site games. Roll with Rutgers Wednesday.
|03-13-19||Miami-FL v. Virginia Tech -7||56-71||Win||100||5 h 50 m||Show|
15* Miami/VA Tech ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech -7
The Virginia Tech Hokies have the advantage of having yesterday off while Miami beat Wake Forest 79-71 yesterday. I’ll gladly back the rested Hokies in this matchup to cover this 7-point spread Wednesday afternoon.
After all, Virginia Tech has already crushed Miami twice this season. They beat the Hurricanes by 12 on the road and by 14 at home, covering the spread in both games. And now they are only laying 7 points in their 3rd meeting this season.
Miami is 0-7 ATS when playing its 2nd road game in 3 days over the last three seasons. Virginia Tech is 9-1 ATS in its lsat 10 games as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. The Hurricanes are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games off a win. The Hokies are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a losing record. Take Virginia Tech Wednesday.
|03-12-19||Wolves v. Nuggets -10||Top||107-133||Win||100||11 h 8 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -10
The Denver Nuggets come into this game highly motivated for a victory Tuesday night. They have lost four of their last five coming in. But now they’ve had some time to regroup, coming in on three days’ rest having last played on Friday. Look for them to put forth one of their best efforts of the season tonight.
The Minnesota Timberwolves will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 11th game in 21 days out of the All-Star Break. The schedule makers have done them no favors as they now have to play five of their next six on the road against some of the best teams in the NBA.
It’s bad timing for the Timberwolves, who just had both Andrew Wiggins (Quad) and Karl-Anthony Towns (Knee) suffer recent injuries that kept them out of their game against the Knicks on Sunday. And now both are highly questionable to play tonight as well.
The Nuggets are 27-6 at home this season, while the Timberwolves are 9-25 on the road. Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games. Denver is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games. Bet the Nuggets Tuesday.
|03-11-19||San Diego v. St. Mary's -4.5||62-69||Win||100||11 h 60 m||Show|
15* San Diego/St. Mary’s WCC Late-Night BAILOUT on St. Mary’s -4.5
The St. Mary’s Gaels got a bye into the semifinals of the WCC Tournament due to earning the No. 2 seed. That’s such a huge advantage for them in this conference, just as it is for Gonzaga.
While St. Mary’s has been off since March 2nd, San Diego has had to win three games in the last three days just to get to the semifinals. The Toreros will now be playing their 4th game in 5 days and won’t have anything left in the tank for the Gaels tonight.
Not to mention, St. Mary’s owns this team. St. Mary’s won by 17 as 9.5-point home favorites and by 20 as 2.5-point road favorites in their two meetings with San Diego this season. The Gaels are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
And this is a Gaels team that will still be highly motivated because they are a bubble team in the NCAA Tournament, so they certainly have to win this game to have any chance to get in. Given their situational advantage, they should post their third blowout victory of the season over the Toreros tonight. Roll with St. Mary’s Monday.
|03-11-19||Pepperdine v. Gonzaga -23.5||Top||74-100||Win||100||9 h 35 m||Show|
25* WCC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Gonzaga -23.5
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are have a huge situational advantage over the Pepperdine Waves in the WCC Tournament semifinals. That’s why I’m willing to lay this big number with them in a game that should be over by halftime.
Because Gonzaga got the No. 1 seed, they got a bye into the semifinals. Meanwhile, Pepperdine has already had to play three games in three days, and the Waves will now be playing their 4th game in 5 days. I just don’t see them having much left in the tank, which is going to make it difficult for them to even make a game out of this.
In their first and only meeting this season, the Bulldogs beat the Waves 92-64 at home as 29-point favorites. They were up 20 at halftime and coasted in the 2nd half. They won’t be coasting tonight as they’ll be chomping at the bit to hit the court after last playing on March 2nd.
Plays against any team (Pepperdine) - in any tournament semifinal game, with a winning percentage between 40% and 49% on the season playing a winning team are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Gonzaga is 19-11 ATS in all games this season. The Bulldogs are 14-3 ATS when the total is 150 to 159.5 this season. The Bulldogs are 27-10-3 ATS in the last 40 meetings. Bet Gonzaga Monday.
|03-11-19||Hornets +9.5 v. Rockets||106-118||Loss||-103||7 h 11 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +9.5
This is a great spot to fade the Houston Rockets. They are starting to become overvalued now due to their eight-game winning streak. That streak could come to an end tonight, and we’ll gladly take the points with the Hornets given the spot.
Houston will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days after narrowly escaping with a 94-93 win at Dallas Sunday. And now the Rockets have the Warriors on deck Wednesday, so this is a sandwich game and a look ahead spot. They won’t give their best effort against the Hornets tonight because of it.
The Hornets will be giving their best effort. They are one game behind the Heat for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. And they had yesterday off, so they’re rested and ready to go. They also want revenge from a 103-108 home loss to the Rockets on February 27th just two weeks ago, only adding to their motivation.
Houston is 21-44-2 ATS in its last 67 games vs. a team with a losing record, including 2-10 ATS in its last 12 vs. a team with a losing record this season. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record. They tend to play to the level of their competition. The road team is 3-0-2 ATS In the last five meetings. Take the Hornets Monday.
|03-11-19||Pistons v. Nets -2||Top||75-103||Win||100||7 h 23 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -2
The Brooklyn Nets have turned it around by winning three straight. They still trail the Pistons by a half-game in the East, and now they host the Pistons tonight. The situation really favors the home favorite Nets in this one.
Brooklyn comes in playing just its 2nd game in 5 days. Meanwhile, Detroit will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, its 3rd game in 4 days and its 6th game in 10 days. I’ll gladly back the more motivated, more rested team at home tonight.
The Pistons couldn’t possibly be more overvalued than they are currently after going 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. It’s time to ’sell high’ on them now, especially considering how tough a spot this is for them.
Brooklyn is 15-5 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season. Detroit is 8-21 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons. The Nets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. Brooklyn is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Bet the Nets Monday.
|03-10-19||SMU v. South Florida -2||77-71||Loss||-105||6 h 26 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on South Florida -2
The South Florida Bulls have been one of the best surprise stories in college basketball this season. Not much was expected of them, and they’ve managed to go 18-11 and compete with the top teams in the American Athletic. They’d love to cap off a great regular season with one final win here at home on Senior Day.
I don’t think they’ll get much resistance from SMU, which appears to have packed it in here down the stretch. The Mustangs are just 1-9 SU in their last 10 games overall with their only win coming at home against UConn. Three of their last four losses have come by double-digits. At 13-16 on the season now, they just don’t have much to play for today.
The Bulls are 14-4 at home this season, while the Mustangs are just 2-7 in true road games. The Bulls also get an extra day of rest and preparation as they last played on Wednesday, while the Mustangs last played at Houston on Thursday. And off that Houston loss, they will have a hard time getting motivated to face South Florida today after facing the top team in the conference just a few days ago.
SMU is 1-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Mustangs are 2-9 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season. SMU is 0-7 ATS in its last seven Sunday games. The Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. The Bulls are 15-5 ATS int heir last 20 games following a SU win. Take South Florida Sunday.
|03-10-19||Raptors v. Heat +1||125-104||Loss||-109||6 h 51 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Heat +1
The Miami Heat are balling out right now as they try and cling on to the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, including upset wins over the Warriors and Hornets, and they’re only loss during this stretch came on the road against red-hot Houston by 3 as 9-point dogs.
A big reason for the Heat’s recent resurgence has been health. They are now as healthy as they’ve been all season. Point guard Goran Dragic has returned to the lineup and made all the difference in the world for this team. They are clearly clicking offensively now, scoring 114-plus points in six of their last seven games overall.
The Raptors have been big money burners since losing Fred VanVleet to injury. He’s one of the most valuable backup point guards in the NBA, and they miss him badly. And now the Raptors are going to rest Kawhi Leonard today, which should make Miami’s job a whole lot easier.
The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Toronto is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win. The Raptors are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. The Heat are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents. Miami is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. These last four trends combine for a perfect 31-0 system backing the Heat. Take the Heat Sunday.
|03-10-19||Pacers v. 76ers -4.5||Top||89-106||Win||100||6 h 51 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -4.5
The Philadelphia 76ers return home today highly motivated for a victory off back-to-back road losses at Chicago and Houston. Now they’re back home, where they are 25-9 on the season and outscoring opponents by 8.0 points per game.
Plus, the 76ers are expected to get Joel Embiid back from an eight-game absence, which has been the main reason for their struggles of late. And the Pacers have some injury concerns of their own as Victor Oladipo is out for the season, while Domantas Sabonis, Tyreke Evans and Alize Johnson are all questionable.
Philadelphia is 26-9 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons. Indiana is 3-13 ATS in road games when revenging loss as a favorite over the last three seasons. The Pacers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The 76ers are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the 76ers Sunday.
|03-10-19||Bulls v. Pistons UNDER 216||108-131||Loss||-109||2 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Pistons UNDER 216
This is one of my favorite situations to back an UNDER. The Bulls and Pistons are in a home-and-home situation here after just playing on Friday in Chicago. Now they are playing on Sunday in an early start time at 12:00 EST in the rematch, and they’ll surely still be groggy, which favors the UNDER.
These teams combined for 216 points in that meeting Friday despite Chicago shootings 51.2% and Detroit shooting 54.2%. What are the chances they shoot that good again? The answer is not very good. I expect this game to be played at a snail’s pace just as that one was, and for it to easily stay UNDER the 216-point total. Familiarity favors UNDERS, and these home-and-home situations allow teams to get familiar with one another.
Chicago is 21-11 UNDER when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Detroit. The UNDER is 6-0 in Bulls last six vs. NBA Central Division opponents. The UNDER is 11-4 in Pistons last 15 when playing on one days’ rest. Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|03-10-19||Houston v. Cincinnati -2||Top||85-69||Loss||-107||2 h 21 m||Show|
20* Houston/Cincinnati CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati -2
The Houston Cougars have already been assured at least share of the AAC Title. They won’t be nearly as motivated Cincinnati, which needs a win to claim a share of the title with Houston. That’s because the Bearcats suffered a loss at UCF last time out to fall a game behind the Cougars in the conference.
"It would be awesome. It's a big game,” head coach Mick Cronin said. "You've worked all year to have a chance to share the regular season championship. Sometimes winning can get minimized, especially when you've done a lot of it. I can assure you that everyone else in our league wishes they were playing for a share of the title on Sunday. That's your goal. You can't win it if you're not in it. We have chance to be in the title fight, even if it's only for a share of a half of one. It's huge."
Now, the Bearcats are back home here on Senior Day looking for revenge on the Cougars after losing to them 58-65 on the road in their first meeting this season. I like their chances to get revenge at home this time around considering they are 16-1 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 16.1 points per game.
I also think we are getting a discount on the Bearcats today because they have been overvalued for quite some time now, but now they are no longer overvalued after going 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall coming in. Houston is the team that’s overvalued currently today.
Cincinnati is a perfect 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight home meetings with Houston. Plays on home teams (Cincinnati) - after failing to cover the spread in seven or more consecutive games are 45-18 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Cincinnati Sunday.
|03-09-19||Celtics -6 v. Lakers||120-107||Win||102||9 h 24 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Lakers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Boston -6
The Lakers are done for. They faced four basically must-win games in their last four, and they went 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS. They are also 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall. Considering they were max motivated and lost all four, it’s not a good sign for this team.
Now, the Lakers have publicly stated that they will limit LeBron James’ minutes the rest of the way. That’s because they are basically eliminate from playoff contention now unless they win out. It’s a smart move by them because at this point getting the best draft pick they can is the priority.
Conversely, the Boston Celtics are trying to move up in the Eastern Conference standings. They have gotten it together by winning three of their last four, including a 33-point win at Golden State. This team is playing for something, while the Lakers are not. So I’ll gladly back the more motivated team here in the Celtics tonight.
Boston is 26-12 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last two seasons. The Lakers are 4-15 ATS after allowing 105-plus points in five straight games this season. Roll with the Celtics Saturday.
|03-09-19||Michigan +4 v. Michigan State||Top||63-75||Loss||-110||9 h 54 m||Show|
20* Michigan/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan +4
The Michigan Wolverines took the Michigan State Spartans lightly in their first meeting this season, losing 70-77 as 4.5-point home favorites. It was one of the Spartans’ first games without Nick Ward, so I think the Wolverines just thought they could show up and win.
Now, learning from their mistakes in the first meeting, I fully expect the Wolverines to win outright in the rematch. Getting 4 points is just an added bonus. The fact remains that the Spartans are without two of their top three scorers in Nick Ward and Joshua Langford. If both of these teams were max motivated, the Wolverines would win 9 out of 10 times minimum in their current state.
Michigan is 9-1 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season. The Wolverines are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Michigan is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 road games. The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Michigan State. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Bet Michigan Saturday.
|03-09-19||Northern Iowa +1 v. Drake||60-58||Win||100||7 h 59 m||Show|
15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa +1
The injury bug keeps hurting the Drake Bulldogs. They’ve overcome a lot of adversity this season with the injuries, but this is simply too much to overcome now. Their great season ends today against Northern Iowa Saturday.
The Bulldogs lost second-leading scorer Nick Norton (14.0 PPG) early in the season. They lost D.J. Wilkins (11.1 PPG), their 4th-leading scorer, in their regular season finale. And now leading scorer Nick McGlynn (15.2 PPG, 8.3 RPG) suffered an injury yesterday in the win over Illinois State that is likely to keep him out today. Missing 3 of their top 4 scorers now, the Bulldogs are done for.
Northern Iowa is playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch. The Panthers are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. One of the losses was a 1-point loss against the best team in the MVC in Loyola-Chicago. And four of the five wins have come by double-digits.
Northern Iowa is 8-2 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including 7-1 ATS when revenging a road loss this year. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record. Northern Iowa is 15-4-2 ATS in the last 21 meetings, consistently having Drake’s number in this in-state rivalry. Take Northern Iowa Saturday.
|03-09-19||St. John's v. Xavier -2.5||68-81||Win||100||6 h 2 m||Show|
15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Xavier -2.5
The Xavier Musketeers are making a big run to close the season to try and make the NCAA Tournament. They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming on the road at Butler. They have won at Providence, Seton Hall and St. John’s during this stretch, while also beating Creighton and Villanova at home.
Now, the Musketeers are up against St. John’s again after just beating them by 11 on the road. The Red Storm are dealing with some injuries and suspensions right now, which is why they have struggled down the stretch. They have gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall, losing by 19 at Providence, by 11 at home to Xavier and by 9 at DePaul.
Xavier is 9-2 ATS in home games after having won three of their last four games over the past two seasons. The Musketeers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Xavier Saturday.
|03-09-19||UCF v. Temple||Top||62-67||Win||100||5 h 54 m||Show|
20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Temple PK
The motivation is at an all-time high for the Temple Owls today. They are currently on the ‘Last 4 In’ line according to Joe Lunardi. They need a win to get in the NCAA Tournament, and a victory over Top 25 UCF would do the trick.
Not to mention, it’s Senior Day, meaning it’s the final home game for leading scorer Shizz Alston Jr. (19.6 PPG) and company. And it’s Fran Dunphy’s final season at Temple. So the Owls couldn’t possibly be more motivated than they are right now.
This is a massive letdown spot for UCF. The Owls punched their tickets to the NCAA Tournament with back-to-back wins over Houston and Cincinnati, the top two teams in the conference. There’s no question they have been celebrating those two wins big-time the past few days, and they will come out flat Saturday against a Temple team that simply wants it more.
The Owls are 12-2 at home this season. The Knights are way overvalued right now after going 8-0 ATS in their last eight games. We’ll ’sell high’ on them today and back the team that needs the win more. Bet Temple Saturday.
|03-08-19||San Diego v. Santa Clara +6||Top||62-45||Loss||-108||11 h 22 m||Show|
20* San Diego/Santa Clara CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Santa Clara +6
I love the spot for Santa Clara tonight. They had yesterday off while San Diego had to play Portland. Now the Broncos come in rested and ready to go tonight against the Toreros, and somehow they are catching points in this WCC second-round matchup.
Catching points despite the fact that Santa Clara won 68-56 as identical 6-point home dogs in their first and only meeting this season already. After already beating the Toreros by 12, and being rested while San Diego is playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, this is a huge line mistake tonight.
Of course, the Broncos have been undervalued all season, especially down the stretch. They are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall. Santa Clara is 14-4 ATS off an ATS win this season. The Toreros are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. San Diego is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games following a win. The Broncos are 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 neutral site games. The underdog is 23-3-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings. Bet Santa Clara Friday.
|03-08-19||Thunder v. Clippers -2||Top||110-118||Win||100||11 h 36 m||Show|
20* Thunder/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2
This is such a favorable spot for the Los Angeles Clippers, who are already playing their best basketball of the season right now and getting no respect from oddsmakers. The Clippers are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses coming on the road to the Jazz and Nuggets.
Now, the Clippers come in on three days’ rest after last playing and beating the Lakers 113-105 on the road on Monday. They will be fresh and ready to go tonight back at the Staples Center, where they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home games winning by 27, 9 and 21 points.
The Thunder are playing terrible right now, going 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall. And it doesn’t get any easier for them tonight as they are in their toughest spot of the season tonight. Not only will the Thunder be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, they are coming off an overtime win at Portland last night. And they will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days here. They won’t have anything left in the tank for the rested Clippers tonight.
The Thunder are 2-10 ATS off a division game this season. The Clippers are 9-1 ATS in Friday games this season. The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Bet the Clippers Friday.
|03-08-19||Pepperdine v. Loyola Marymount -4.5||68-65||Loss||-110||9 h 1 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Loyola-Marymount -4.5
I love the spot for Loyola-Marymount (20-10) against Pepperdine (14-17) tonight. The Lions did not have to play yesterday and have been off since March 2nd, while the Waves had to play a hard-fought 61-53 win over Pacific last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back in the WCC Tournament second-round matchup.
Loyola-Marymount closed the regular season in impressive fashion by winning their final three games, including a 63-56 road win at Pacific and a 74-69 upset road win at San Francisco as 7.5-point dogs. This veteran team that returned all five starters is locked in and ready to make a run in the WCC Tournament.
Loyola-Marymount is 6-0 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons. The Waves are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win. The Lions are 5-0-2 ATS in their last seven neutral site games. Take Loyola-Marymount Friday.
|03-08-19||76ers +7.5 v. Rockets||91-107||Loss||-100||8 h 6 m||Show|
15* 76ers/Rockets ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +7.5
The Houston Rockets are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers now due to their six-game winning streak. We’ll ’sell high’ on them here tonight, especially off back-to-back upset road wins over Boston and Toronto. This is clearly a letdown spot for them tonight, and they are laying too big of a price.
We’ll ‘buy low’ on the 76ers, who are still without Joel Embiid and coming off a last-second loss to the Bulls. They also blew a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter and lost to the Warriors 117-120 recently. But they’ve won three of their last five outside of those two toss-up losses. In fact, the 76ers have only lost by more than 3 points once in their last 11 games overall. There’s a ton of value on the 76ers tonight catching 7.5 points.
The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rockets. They won by 28 at home in their first meeting this season, and also won by 8 on the road as 7-point dogs in their final meeting last season. Their two losses came by 1 point at home as 3-point dogs and by 5 at home as 6.5-point dogs. The Rockets haven’t been able to put them away.
Houston is 10-19 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The 76ers are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 Friday games. The Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. Take the 76ers Friday.
|03-08-19||Mavs v. Magic -7||106-111||Loss||-105||7 h 5 m||Show|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -7
One of the best-kept secrets since the All-Star Break is how the Dallas Mavericks are tanking. If they pick in the Top 5 of the NBA draft, they get to keep their pick. Otherwise they lose it. They are trying desperately to get in the Top 5, and it’s showing with their play on the floor.
Indeed, the Mavericks are 1-8 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall. All eight losses have come by 9 points or more. That includes a recently 30-point home loss to Memphis and a 39-point road loss to Brooklyn. If that’s not a sign of a team that’s tanking, I don’t know what is.
The Magic will be highly motivated for a win tonight off back-to-back road losses to the Cavs and 76ers. That followed up their best stretch of the season in which they went 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS in their previous 13 games. This is a Magic team fighting to make the playoffs as they are currently 9th in the East, just one game back of the Heat for the 8th and final playoff spot.
Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Orland) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, off two or more consecutive road losses are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games. The Magic are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. The home team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings. The favorite is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Roll with the Magic Friday.
|03-07-19||Evansville v. Illinois State -5||60-65||Push||0||9 h 56 m||Show|
15* MVC Tournament No-Brainer on Illinois State -5
Illinois State made the MVC Championship Game last season. They returned four starters from that team, but they have been disappointing at 16-15 this year. Still, I think this team will be able to flip the switch now that the MVC Tournament starts tonight. Look for them to use their veteran experience to blow Evansville out of the building tonight.
The Redbirds have shown what they are capable of in the regular season when they are fully focused. Drake and Loyola-Chicago tied for first in the conference. Well, Illinois State went 3-1 in its four meetings with Drake and Loyola, the best the MVC has to offer.
Evansville is a young team with just one returning starter that really played like a young team down the stretch. Indeed, the Purple Aces closed the season going 2-11 SU & 4-9 ATS in their final 13 games. Their only two wins during this stretch came against Valparaiso, another team that is struggling as much as they are.
Illinois State simply owns Evansville. The Redbirds are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Purple Aces with seven of their eight wins coming by 6 points or more. And that’s all it will take for them to cover tonight as 5-point favorites. The Redbirds are 21-10-2 ATS in their last 33 games following a loss. The Purple Aces are 0-6 ATS in their last six games off an ATS win. Take Illinois State Thursday.
|03-07-19||Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 223||Top||98-117||Win||100||7 h 21 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pacers/Bucks UNDER 223
This is the 4th and final meeting of the season between Indiana and Milwaukee. The first three saw 219, 210 and 203 combined points, progressively getting lower scoring as the season has gone on. And I think the books have really missed their mark in setting this total too high tonight.
The Bucks and Pacers have now combined for 223 or fewer points in each of their last 10 meetings, making for a 9-0-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 223-point total set. They have averaged just 203.3 combined points in their last 10 meetings, which is roughly 20 points less than tonight’s posted total.
And keep in mind that Indiana doesn’t have leading scorer Victor Oladipo (18.8 PPG) or 3rd-leading scorer Domantas Sobonis (14.3 PPG) tonight. Points will be hard to come by for the Pacers. And these teams are so familiar with one another now, which explains why every time they face off the combined points keeps getting lower and lower. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 210 or more (Milwaukee) - a good team outscoring their opponents by 9-plus points per game, in March games are 29-10 (74.4%) over the last five seasons. The UNDER is 8-2 in Pacers’ last 10 games playing on one days’ rest. The UNDER is 10-3 in Pacers last 13 vs. Eastern Conference. The UNDER is 5-0 in Bucks last five vs. Eastern Conference. The UNDER is 8-2 in Bucks last 10 games following a loss. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|03-06-19||Celtics v. Kings||Top||111-109||Loss||-110||26 h 21 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento PK
The Boston Celtics couldn’t possibly be in a tougher spot than they are tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days. And they are coming off a huge upset win over the defending champion Warriors last night. I always like fading teams after facing Golden State, win or lose, but especially off a win. Teams just never seem to get up for their next opponent after facing the Warriors.
The Kings will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, so they’ll be rested and ready to go. It’s a Kings team that is fighting to make the playoffs as they are currently 9th in the Western Conference standings. And the Kings are now 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games with quietly one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.
The home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings between the Celtics and Kings straight up. The home team is also 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Sacramento is 28-10 ATS in its last 38 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Boston is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. And it’s a Celtics team that is still not playing well despite that win, going 2-5 SU in its last seven games overall. I don’t think they’re magically cured after beating the Warriors.
Boston is 3-11 ATS in road games after playing a road game this season. Sacramento is 10-2 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Kings are 8-1 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive unders this season. The Celtics are just 15-16 SU & 12-18-1 ATS on the road this season. Take the Kings Wednesday.
|03-06-19||Arkansas v. Vanderbilt +2||Top||84-48||Loss||-110||9 h 21 m||Show|
25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Vanderbilt +2
Well, Vanderbilt is now 0-16 in SEC play this season. This is their last real good chance to get a conference win because they close at LSU in their finale Saturday. I look for them to take advantage and get that win at home on Senior Night Wednesday against one of the worst teams in the SEC in Arkansas.
Adding to Vanderbilt’s motivation tonight is the fact that they only lost 66-69 at Arkansas on February 5th in their first meeting this season. So this is clearly a Razorbacks team they are capable of beating, and after several near-misses this season, I expect them to finally get over the hump and get their first conference win tonight.
Arkansas really has nothing to play for. The Razorbacks are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games overall with their only win coming by a single point at home against Ole Miss. The Razorbacks are also 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall. Oddsmakers are begging you to back them as small favorites here against the winless Commodores, but don’t fall for it. This ‘baiting' line makes me love Vanderbilt even more tonight.
Arkansas is 0-6 ATS off a close home win by 3 points or less over the last twos seasons. The Razorbacks are 1-9 ATS off a close win by 3 points or less over the last two seasons. They just seem to relax in these spots. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take Vanderbilt Wednesday.
|03-06-19||Jazz -4 v. Pelicans||114-104||Win||100||9 h 60 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Utah Jazz -4
I love the spot for the Utah Jazz tonight. This is a home-and-home situation. And after blowing a 17-point lead at home to the Pelicans and losing 112-115 on Monday, they now get a shot at revenge just two days later. I look for them to take advantage and get back on track with a blowout road win tonight.
The Jazz have won eight of their last 10 meetings with the Pelicans, including their 132-111 road win in their first trip to New Orleans back on October 27th. The Jazz are still 18-7 in their last 25 games overall and are playing as well as almost anyone in the NBA.
It’s usually a good spot to fade teams in the first game back home following a road trip, too. Well, the Pelicans just completed their annual Mardi Gras road trip with 4 road games in 6 days at the Lakers, Suns, Nuggets and Jazz. They now have to deal with the distractions back home, and they certainly won’t be as motivated to beat the Jazz for a 2nd time in 3 days.
Utah is 16-4-1 ATS in its last 21 games off a loss. The Jazz are 19-9 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Jazz are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 trips to New Orleans. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Jazz Wednesday.
|03-06-19||Wolves v. Pistons -5||Top||114-131||Win||100||23 h 21 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -5
The Detroit Pistons are in a great spot tonight. They are up against a Minnesota Timberwolves team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days off an upset home win over the Oklahoma City Thunder last night. This is clearly a flat spot for them now.
The Pistons are playing their best basketball of the season right now as they try and make the playoffs. They have gone 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. That includes upset home wins over the Nuggets and Raptors. Their only two losses during this stretch came on the road to the Spurs and Celtics, two of the best home teams in the NBA.
Detroit comes in on 2 days’ rest, so it will be by far the fresher team. And the Pistons are taking on a Timberwolves team that is just 9-24 on the road this season. Minnesota is just 1-8 SU in its last nine road games with its only win coming at the New York Knicks, which is far from impressive against that tanking team. Detroit is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home games.
The Pistons have the Timberwolves’ number, going 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings. Minnesota is 2-12 ATS in road games after a combined score of 235 or more points over the last two seasons. Detroit is 14-4 ATS in home games after having won three of its last four games over the past two seasons. It is winning by 10.9 points per game in this spot. Bet the Pistons Wednesday.
|03-06-19||Iowa State v. West Virginia +8||75-90||Win||100||8 h 54 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on West Virginia +8
The Iowa State Cyclones are finding it hard to be motivated here down the stretch. They were recently eliminated from Big 12 title contention. It’s a big reason why they are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. They have only won two of their last eight games by more than 5 points.
West Virginia is a team that will give them a battle at home here on Senior Night. The Mountaineers want revenge from their 68-93 los at Iowa State in which they completely fell apart in the second half. They recently upset TCU at home, and fought hard in road losses to Baylor and Oklahoma in their last three games.
West Virginia has won three straight home meetings with Iowa State by 15, 11 and 10 points. They only lost by 2 and won by 25 in their previous two home meetings with the Cyclones as well. So, they have outscored Iowa State by a total of 59 points in their last five home meetings, or by an average of 11.8 points per game.
Iowa State will be without leading scorer Marial Shayok (18.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG), and they could be without starting PG Nick Weiler-Babb (9.3 PPG, 4.1 APG, 4.8 RPG), who is questionable with an injury. That severely hampers their chances of not only covering this game, but winning it outright as well.
The Mountaineers are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Iowa State 12-27 ATS in its last 39 games as a road favorite of 6 points or less. The Cyclones are 1-8 ATS in road games after having lost two of their last three games over the last two seasons. The Mountaineers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games off three or more consecutive overs. West Virginia is 6-0 ATS in home games after a combined score of 155 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons. They are winning by 20.5 points per game in this spot. Roll with West Virginia Wednesday.
|03-06-19||LSU v. Florida +1||79-78||Push||0||8 h 38 m||Show|
15* LSU/Florida ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Florida +1
The Florida Gators won five straight games, including upset road wins over Alabama and LSU, to put themselves in good position to make the NCAA Tournament. But then they came out flat against Georgia and lost their last home game. That loss did them no favors, and they are back on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.
I fully expect the Gators to come back highly motivated from that loss, especially since it’s Senior Night as this will be their final home game of the season. And they welcome nationally ranked LSU to town and would love to cap the season sweep of the Tigers and prevent them from winning the SEC.
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Tigers, who have gone 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. But six of their seven wins during this stretch have come by 5 points or less, so they have simply been fortunate in close games. I think their luck runs out tonight against the Gators.
LSU is 0-6 ATS when revenging a loss as a home favorite over the last three seasons. The Tigers are losing by 15.5 points per game in this spot. LSU is 1-8 ATS when revenging any loss over the last three years as well. The Tigers are 3-14 ATS when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of its games over the last three seasons. Bet Florida Wednesday.
|03-06-19||Marquette v. Seton Hall +2.5||64-73||Win||100||7 h 24 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Seton Hall +2.5
This is a huge game for Seton Hall. The Pirates are currently on the ‘Last 4 In’ line according to Joe Lunardi. So they are clinging on to a spot in the big dance. A win over No. 16 Marquette here would certainly help get them in.
Adding to the Pirates’ motivation is the fact that they want revenge from a 4-point loss at Marquette, 66-70, as 4.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season. If you adjust for home-court advantage, the Pirates should be favored in the rematch. Instead, they are 2.5-point dogs, a difference of only 2 points from the line in the first meeting.
I think we are getting extra value on the Pirates because they are coming off three straight losses in toss-up games. They lost by 1 at home to Xavier, lost in overtime at Georgetown and lost by 8 at St. John’s. That adds to their motivation off the three straight losses as well.
Marquette won a ton of close games throughout the season, but they’ve finally fallen short in them in their last two. They lost by 6 at Villanova and by 6 at home to Creighton as 7.5-point favorites. And while Marquette played Creighton on Sunday, Seton Hall last played on Saturday against Georgetown. And extra rest a team gets this late in the season is huge, and the Pirates get an extra day here to prepare for the Golden Eagles.
Marquette is 1-5 ATS in its last six games off a loss. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Steve Wojciechowski is 3-13 ATS off a home loss to a conference opponent as the coach of Marquette. Kevin Willard is 13-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games as the coach of the Pirates. Roll with Seton Hall Wednesday.
|03-05-19||Blazers v. Grizzlies +6.5||111-120||Win||100||8 h 2 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +6.5
The Memphis Grizzlies keep battling night in and night out. That is evident by the fact that they have only lost one game by more than 6 points in their last nine games, which came on the road on the 2nd of a back-to-back. They have upset the Lakers at home and upset the Mavs by 30 on the road here recently, and they only lost by 4 at OKC as 9.5-point dogs last time out after blowing a 13-point lead late.
It think we’ll ‘buy low’ on the Grizzlies and ‘sell high’ on the Blazers, who are 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall. The betting public is all over them now. Consider this. Memphis was only a 5-point road dog at Portland in their last meeting, and now they are 6.5-point home dogs to Portland in the rematch.
They’re bigger underdogs at home than they were on the road. That’s an obvious sign that the Blazers are overvalued right now. Plus, Memphis was a 3-point favorite in its last home meetings with Portland this season. They won that game 92-83. The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Memphis) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, on Tuesday nights are 40-16 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Tuesday games. Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. Western Conference opponents. Roll with the Grizzlies Tuesday.
|03-05-19||Purdue v. Minnesota +5||Top||69-73||Win||100||8 h 57 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota +5
The Minnesota Golden Gophers find themselves on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. They are on the ‘First 4 In’ line according to Joe Lunardi. They could really use a signature win here over No. 11 Purdue to secure their place in the NCAA Tournament tonight.
Adding to their motivation is the fact that it will be Senior Night, and this is a veteran team led by seniors Jordan Murphy (14.6 PPG, 11.7 RPG) and Dupree McBrayer (9.1 PPG). The Gophers also want revenge after blowing a halftime lead and a big lead in the 2nd half to eventually lose 63-73 at Purdue in their first meeting this season.
Purdue comes in overvalued off back-to-back blowout home wins over Illinois and Ohio State. But it has been a different story for them on the road. In their last four road games, they lost by 14 at Maryland, only beat Indiana by 2 as 6-point favorites, only beat Nebraska by 3 as 6-point favorites, and needed overtime to beat Penn State as 7.5-point favorites.
Minnesota is 13-3 at home this season. The Gophers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog. The Boilermakers are 4-12 ATS in road games off a conference win over the last two seasons. The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet Minnesota Tuesday.
|03-05-19||South Carolina v. Texas A&M -4||71-54||Loss||-109||6 h 19 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas A&M -4
Quietly, the Texas A&M Aggies are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch. They have gone 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. They’ve gone on the road and upset Missouri by 9 and Arkansas by 7, while also handling their business at home with a 17-point win over Georgia, a 9-point win over Alabama and a 7-point win over Vanderbilt.
They only lost by 4 at Ole Miss as 10-point dogs, only lost by 7 at South Carolina as 4.5-point dogs and competed hard in an 11-point loss at LSU as 10-point dogs. Now, the Aggies want revenge from that loss at South Carolina, and I think they get it at home here on Senior Night.
The Gamecocks have packed it in. They found themselves on the bubble a few weeks ago, but now they’ve lost three straight with a 15-point loss at Mississippi State, a 6-point home loss to Alabama and a 15-point road loss at Missouri. They know their only shot at making the tournament is to win the SEC Tournament now. Plus, they are missing their 2nd-best player in A.J. Lawson (13.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.0 APG), who missed last game with an ankle injury and will sit this game out as well.
The Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Gamecocks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Aggies are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Gamecocks. Take Texas A&M Tuesday.
|03-04-19||Kansas State -1.5 v. TCU||64-52||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
15* Kansas State/TCU ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State -1.5
The Kansas State Wildcats are tied with Texas Tech for first place in the Big 12 this season. Win out and they’ll be guaranteed at least a share of the title. This is their last big hurdle tonight as they host Oklahoma to finish out the season on Saturday.
I expect this senior-laden Wildcats team to come up big tonight and get yet another huge road win in conference play over faltering TCU. Kansas State has already gone on the road and beaten Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas and West Virginia in Big 12 play this season. Their only two road losses came at Kansas and at Texas Tech.
TCU is quickly playing itself out of the NCAA Tournament. The Horned Frogs are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS int heir last five games overall with their only win coming by a narrow 3 points at home against Iowa State. They have lost at home to Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech during this stretch, while also suffering bad road losses at Oklahoma State and WVU.
Kansas State is 7-1 ATS in conference road games this season. TCU is 0-6 ATS after allowing 80 points or more this season. The Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS off a game as a home underdog over the last three years. The Wildcats are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 Big 12 games. The Wildcats are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with Kansas State Monday.
|03-04-19||Nuggets v. Spurs -1||Top||103-104||Push||0||8 h 20 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -1
The San Antonio Spurs have gotten back on track since returning from their disastrous eight-game rodeo road trip. They have put together back-to-back blowout home wins and covers over Detroit by 12 as 4.5-point favorites and Oklahoma City by 14 as 5-point favorites.
Now, the Spurs are fresh and ready to go as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here against the Denver Nuggets. And it should come as no surprise they’ve turned it around at home considering they are now 24-7 SU & 20-11 ATS at home this season.
Plus, home-court advantage has been huge in this series as well. The home team is 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings. The Spurs are a perfect 12-0 SU in their last 12 home meetings with the Nuggets. They basically just have to win to cover as 1-point home favorites tonight.
The Nuggets come in scuffling a bit with back-to-back upset home losses to Utah as 7.5-point favorites and New Orleans as 13.5-point favorites. I expect the Spurs to continue their upward trajectory with another win here, while the Nuggets suffer their third straight defeat.
The Spurs are 17-2 ATS when revenging a road loss this season. San Antonio is 12-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. The Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games. The Spurs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games. Bet the Spurs Monday.
|03-04-19||Mavs v. Nets -5||88-127||Win||100||7 h 20 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets -5
It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Brooklyn Nets, who have lost three straight both SU and ATS to fall to below .500 on the season at 32-33. They are the team in the playoff hunt here, and they are the one that is likely to bounce back from bad performances.
The Dallas Mavericks aren’t likely to care nearly as much about their recent bad performances. They are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with all six losses coming by 9 points or more. They are allowing 114.9 points per game and 47.2% shooting in their last seven games.
Plays on home favorites (Brooklyn) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games against an opponent that was also beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 37-13 (74%) ATS since 1996.
Brooklyn is 25-12 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including 13-5 ATS when revenging a same-season loss. The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Western Conference opponents. Brooklyn is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Southeast Division foes. Take the Nets Monday.
|03-03-19||Arizona State v. Oregon State -3||74-71||Loss||-105||9 h 7 m||Show|
15* ASU/Oregon State ESPNU Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State -3
The Oregon State Beavers will be highly motivated for a win at home on Senior Night. This is a veteran team that is led by seniors Stephen Thompson Jr. (16.4 PPG, 4.4 RGP) Gilgorje Rakocevic (5.8 PPG, 3.0 RPG). It’s a big day for these two, and I look for fellow veterans Tres Tinkle (20.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG) and Ethan Thompson (13.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG) to try and send them out winners in their final home game.
Adding to Oregon State’s motivation is the fact that it wants revenge from a tough 67-70 road loss at Arizona State in their first meeting this season. Now the Sun Devils have to hit the road, where they are just 3-4 in Pac-12 road games this season with their only wins coming against Cal, UCLA and Utah, three of the worst teams in the conference. They have also lost by 14 at Stanford, lost at USC, lost at Colorado and lost at Oregon by 28.
The Beavers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss. The Sun Devils are 5-13-2 ATS int heir last 20 road games. Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with ASU. The Beavers are 6-0 ATS in home games off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons. Arizona State is 0-6 ATS in road games when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of its games over the last two seasons. Roll with Oregon State Sunday.
|03-03-19||Rockets v. Celtics -2||Top||115-104||Loss||-105||4 h 29 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Celtics ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Boston -2
It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Boston Celtics, who have lost four of their last five coming in. But three of those losses came on the road, including two to the top two teams in the East in Milwaukee and Toronto. And the other loss was at home on the 2nd of a back-to-back against the hot Blazers.
But the Celtics got back on track with an 11-point home win over the Wizards on Friday. And they are still 24-9 SU & 20-13 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. Getting them as only 2-point favorites here against the Rockets is a huge discount.
Houston actually has a losing 15-16 SU & 11-19-1 ATS record on the road this season. The Celtics are 10-2 ATS as home favorites of 6 points or less this season. Boston is 8-0 ATS after having lost four of its last five games over the last two seasons. It is coming back to win by 11.3 points per game in this spot. The Rockets are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a win. Bet the Celtics Sunday.
|03-03-19||Notre Dame v. Louisville -8||61-75||Win||100||3 h 33 m||Show|
15* Notre Dame/Louisville ACC ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -8
The Louisville Cardinals come in highly motivated for a victory today. They have lost three straight and five of their last six and are now in jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament if they don’t finish strong. I expect a big effort form them here in their final home game, making this Senior Day for the Cardinals.
Notre Dame will not put up much resistance. The Fighting Irish are just 2-10 SU & 5-7 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They are 1-7 SU in true road games this season as well. The home team has won six of the last eight meetings in this series.
Louisville is 10-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record over the last three seasons. Notre Dame is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 games following an ATS win. The Cardinals are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a losing record. They will get right against the Fighting Irish today in a blowout home win on Senior Day. Take Louisville Sunday.