Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-04-21 | Flyers v. Penguins OVER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Pittsburgh has lost three straight times. During the losing streak they have given up 13 goals, four or more in every game. Philadelphia has a three-game Under streak as it has both scored and allowed only five goals during that time. The Flyers got shutout the last time they played on the road, 4-0 by Calgary. But that’s not normal for them. Every other game this season has seen them score two goals or more. The Penguins scored at least four goals in four of their first five games. They’ve also allowed multiple goals in every game but one. So Over is our bet for this showdown in the Metropolitan Division. Yes, Sidney Crosby is out because of COVID. But look at how much the Penguins had been scoring without him in the lineup. (Crosby has only played one game due to wrist surgery). The Over is 17-6-3 in the last 26 meetings between the NHL’s two Keystone State clubs. Play OVER AAA |
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11-03-21 | Clippers v. Wolves OVER 214.5 | Top | 126-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Minnesota is one of two teams yet to go Over in a single game this season. There were four teams without an Over heading into last night’s action, but Dallas and Houston (who were both 5-0-1 Under) each went Over in their games. That leaves the Timberwolves (6-0) and the Nets (7-0 Under) as the only two left without an Over. Tonight the T’wolves host a Clippers team that has gone Under four straight times. We think it’s about time an Over hits for these two seemingly offensively challenged clubs. The Clippers have gone three straight games without scoring 100 points! That’s almost unheard of these days. Minnesota has not hit the century mark in its last two games as well as four of its last five. Both teams rank pretty high in the defensive efficiency ratings, but in the case of Minnesota, we don’t see that continuing. They gave up 43 points in the fourth quarter on Monday - to Orlando. Can two teams really continue to shoot just 41% overall? We don’t think so. One or both teams are set to break out offensively tonight. The Over has hit in the Clippers’ previous seven visits to the Twin Cities. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-03-21 | Hawks v. Nets OVER 216 | Top | 108-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Can you believe Brooklyn is 7-0 to the Under so far? That’s the case as the Nets, who led the NBA in points scored during last season, are one of two teams yet to “experience” an Over this season. We think that changes tonight as the Nets host Atlanta. Coming off a rare trip to the Conference Finals last Spring, the Hawks are off to a 4-3 start and just scored 118 points in a win over Washington Monday night. Trae Young had a good game, making 7 of his 16 shots and scoring 26 points. While Young was only 1 of 6 from three-point range, he was 11 for 11 from the free throw line. Speaking of the charity stripe, Brooklyn’s James Harden seems to be adjusting to league’s new rule (of not being able to lean into a defender to a draw a foul) and is now getting back to the FT line with more regularity. In the last two games, Harden has attempted 22 foul shots. As a team, the Nets shot 65.3% (a franchise record!) in the last game, a 117-91 rout over the Pistons. They probably would have scored even more had Kevin Durant not been ejected in the third quarter for committing a flagrant foul. We expect “fireworks” throughout this game and look for it to be a high-scoring affair tonight on ESPN. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-03-21 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 66.5 | Top | 42-30 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER There was certainly an abundance of scoring in last night’s “MACtion” with the three games totaling 225 points. We had the Over in Miami vs. Ohio, which got wild at the end with four touchdowns scored in the last five minutes. But it’s a whole different set of teams in action on Wednesday and in the case of Central Michigan at Western Michigan, we are taking the Under. To this point, neither team is seeing more than 58 combined points scored per game. Central Michigan averages 29.0 and gives up 28.4. Western Michigan also scores 29.0 points/game while at the same time giving up slightly less than CMU (27.3). We don’t expect this game to be 17-14 by any means, but the over/under line just seems a bit high to us. Central Michigan is 6-1 Under its last seven road games. Western Michigan allows only 19.8 points/game at home. Western has had two huge scoring games, one against Pitt and the other against Kent State, but has not exceeded 28 points in any of the other six. They were held to 15 by Toledo in their last game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-02-21 | Braves v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER With the World Series set to return to Houston, the designated hitter is once again in play for both teams. That’s going to lead most bettors to believe that we’re possibly in store for a high-scoring affair in Game 6. But really, Game 5 has been the only “high-scoring” game of the World Series and that was due in large part to a Braves’ grand slam that was hit in the first inning. That won’t happen again. Take that one swing away and Atlanta has scored just eight runs total in the rest of the last four games. Tonight they must face Luis Garcia, who has a 2.71 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at home and more importantly a 12-3 Under record here. Only twice in the past eight games has Astros pitching allowed more than three runs. Opponents are barely batting .200 during that eight-game run. The Braves have Max Fried on the mound for Game 6. While Fried has turned in two straight subpar outings, the Under is 11-5 in his 16 road starts this year. Fried has allowed three runs or fewer in 23 of his last 29 starts. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-02-21 | Miami-OH v. Ohio OVER 52 | Top | 33-35 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Ohio is 1-7 and looking to snap a three-game losing streak in MAC play. All three of those losses have been by seven points or less. Usually, this is one of the better teams in the conference. But with Frank Solich, the former head coach, retiring not long before the season started, things have gone downhill in a hurry in Athens. Rival Miami will take no pity on the Bobcats. The RedHawks have won two straight and three of four. The one loss in conference play was by one point, at Eastern Michigan. What we expect here is Ohio to end its streak of five consecutive games going Under the total. Their defense is allowing 31.1 points/game, so it isn’t very good. Take away the game vs. Akron, who is the worst team in the MAC, and the Bobcats have given up at least 28 points in every other game. The good news for the home team is that its own scoring average is up to 28.5 points/game in conference play. The Over is 5-1 in Ohio’s last six Tuesday games. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-02-21 | Bucks -4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 117-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE It’s been a poor start to the season for NBA Champion Milwaukee. Losers of three straight, the Bucks head to Detroit Tuesday night to face the Pistons. The good news here is that few teams are in sorrier shape right now than the one hailing from the Motor City. The Pistons are 1-5 and just lost by 26 to the Nets, who had previously been struggling just as the Bucs have. We’ll gladly lay the short number in this one as this is where Giannis and company should right the ship. The Bucks have dominated the Pistons in recent years, winning 14 straight meetings. We understand that the Bucks are playing short handed right now. But even with “just Giannis,” they’ve got way more in the tank than does Detroit, who has only gotten one game out of top draft pick Cade Cunningham thus far and he went 1 for 8 from the field. The Pistons' one win came against Orlando, who is the only team in the East that might finish with a worse record. All five times that Detroit has been an underdog, they’ve lost by at least six points. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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11-01-21 | Giants v. Chiefs -10 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC At 3-4, the Chiefs need to fix things in a hurry. Luckily for them, they’ve got a matchup with the Giants on Monday Night Football. The Giants should be no match for a Kansas City offense that struggled last week, but is known for putting points on the board. The Chiefs have put up 31 or more points in four of their seven games this season. The Giants have never reached that number even one time. Now we do have to worry about a double digit pointspread tonight. Fortunately, a Chiefs defense that has pitched two straight second half shutouts should have a large hand in covering this double digit number. In three of their seven games, New York has not scored more than 14 points. The Giants did pick up a rare win last week, but even in doing so they barely gained 300 yards. They’ve not exceeded 367 total yards in any of their last three games. Their feeble offense - which is still minus RB Barkley and WR Golladay - just won’t score enough this week to stay within the number. We anticipate something in the neighborhood of 30-14 Chiefs tonight. The Giants are 2-7 straight up and 1-8 against the spread vs. the AFC the last three seasons. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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11-01-21 | Raptors v. Knicks UNDER 211 | Top | 113-104 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Knicks are off to a great start with a 5-1 WL record. Their only loss came to Orlando (of all teams!) in a game where they were double digit favorites. There have been a couple close wins, those being the season opener against Boston and a one-point win in Chicago on Thursday. But overall, there’s not much to complain about in the Big Apple. Up “north of the border,” Toronto is looking for a return to winning ways after a very disappointing 2020-21 season. They dealt Kyle Lowry to Miami but are 4-3 so far and have won three in a row, the last two games being decided by a total of four points. What we are expecting from this game Monday night is a low-scoring affair. There have been three games where the Raptors have not scored 100 points. One of them was Saturday’s win over Indiana. The Knicks probably will not continue to shoot 40% from beyond the arc. Saturday’s win over the Pelicans was NY’s highest scoring game in regulation of the young season. Two of the three times these teams met last year, the combined final score did not exceed 200 points. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-01-21 | Capitals v. Lightning OVER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Caps have yet to be beaten in regulation this season as all three losses have come in overtime. They are +11 in goal differential, which is better than every team except the four division leaders. But they’ve also won back to back games just one time. That’s what they are aiming to do Monday as they are off a 2-0 win over hapless Arizona. They are in Tampa Bay for a marquee early-season showdown. The Lightning have won back to back games twice so far, but those represent their only four wins of the year. They ended October with consecutive 5-1 wins over Pittsburgh and Arizona. Both teams have had at least two days off coming into tonight. So we’ll have some fresh skaters and given the reputation both teams have, this looks to be an easy play with the Over. Both teams have three games with five or more goals. The problem for the Lightning is that they have let in five or more goals three times. Yes, we know that it was a 2-1 game (Lightning won) when these teams met on Oct 18. But the TB power play (0 for its last 15) is due to break out and so are the Capitals, who are 10-3-1 Over after allowing two goals or less in the last game. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-31-21 | Cowboys v. Vikings OVER 51 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is listed as a game time decision for the Sunday nighter against the Vikings. Whether or not he plays, we like this game to go Over the total. Dallas will have plenty of offensive firepower surrounding the quarterback, no matter who ends up starting. If it’s Prescott, then we need not even sell you on an offense that is putting up 34.2 points/game thus far. The Cowboys have scored more than that average in each of their past four games. We think that even if Cooper Rush is called upon, the offense can score enough to help this one get Over the total. Minnesota gave up 28 points the last time we saw them. The Vikings offense has scored 30 or more in three of the last five games. So they too can score. Kirk Cousins had a season-high 373 yards vs. Carolina. The Dallas secondary allows 13 yards per completion. The Over has hit in each of Dallas’ past four games and we’re getting a good number because of the uncertainty surrounding Prescott. The Over is 5-0 for the Vikings the last five seasons off a bye week. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-31-21 | Astros -112 v. Braves | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston’s back is against the wall now as they trail three games to one. They must now beat Atlanta three straight times. The good news is that if they win tonight, not only do they stay alive, but the remaining games would be at home. The Astros have scored just two runs in two games in Atlanta. But we think the lineup wakes up from its slumber in Game 5. We know that the Braves have won 11 straight home games. But the Astros have to start hitting better with runners in scoring position (they are 0 for their last 17 in that situation). Atlanta’s pitching has done a great job so far in the series. But the relievers have had a heavy workload that may catch up with them in the end. No team in MLB history has gone 8-0 at home in the postseason. Matzek, Jackson and Smith have all thrown in each of the last two games. As of this writing, the Braves still haven’t announced a starter. No matter who it ends up being, we look for Houston to at least double its scoring output from the last two games. We also trust Framber Valdez to get the job done. He’s been better on the road all year and won the close-out game vs. Boston in the ALCS, giving up one run and three hits in eight innings. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-31-21 | Bucs -4.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-36 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY Tampa Bay lost both regular season games against New Orleans in 2020. But they more than got their revenge in the playoffs when they came to the Superdome and won 30-20. As we all know, the Buccaneers ended up winning the Super Bowl. They remain one of the favorites to do so again this year while the Saints simply are not “what they used to be.” Part of that is Jameis Winston “replacing” the retired Drew Brees. This is not a good matchup for the home team on Sunday. They are working on a short week. While the Saints did win Monday night, it was as unimpressive a win as you’ll see. They beat the Russell Wilson-less Seahawks 13-10 with just over 300 yards of offense. Tampa Bay could not have looked much better last week as they scored five first half touchdowns, then coasted to a 38-3 win against Chicago. Both defenses here are excellent at stopping the run. So it comes down to Tom Brady vs. Winston. Who do you want your money on? Seems like a pretty easy answer, no? Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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10-31-21 | Titans +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 34-31 | Win | 109 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TENNESSEE We firmly disagree with fellow bettors on this AFC South matchup. The line has moved to where the Colts are now favored. Yes, the game is in Indianapolis. But Tennessee is the better team here. The Titans are not only coming off impressive wins over the Bills and Chiefs, but back in Week 3 they defeated the Colts 25-16. Since losing in Week 1 to Arizona, Tennessee has not lost a game in regulation. They’ve covered four of the last five division games and five of the last seven times they’ve been an underdog. Even more impressive is the Titans’ 4-0 SU/ATS record against teams that made the playoffs last year. The Colts have never been able to stop RB Henry in the past. He has run for 135.5 yards/game in the last four meetings. The three teams that Indy has beaten this year are: Miami, Houston and San Francisco. All of them have losing records. We’ll take the better team getting points. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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10-31-21 | 49ers -4 v. Bears | Top | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SF The 49ers are facing a Bears team that a) isn’t very good and b) won’t have its head coach (primary play caller) on the sidelines. In other words, look for the road team to snap its four game losing streak. Chicago is 3-4, however every loss has been by double digits. They were smoked 38-3 by Tampa Bay last week and that game was 35-3 at halftime. Justin Fields has not provided any kind of upgrade from Andy Dalton at QB. San Francisco was supposed to be one of the more improved teams in the league this year. They started 2-0 and things were looking good. But injuries quickly derailed things and they’ve lost a number of close games. This looks to be their most favorable matchup since a 17-11 win at Philadelphia back in Week 2. The Bears are just 1-4 ATS as underdogs. Not only are they without coach Matt Nagy, but top pass rusher Khalil Mack will be M.I.A. today. This should be an easy win and cover for the 49ers. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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10-30-21 | Fresno State v. San Diego State +1 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO STATE San Diego State still has an undefeated record. The Aztecs are 7-0. Linesmakers did not believe in them last week. They were three point underdogs at Air Force but won 20-14. It was the second game in a row where the Aztecs won in low-scoring fashion while being outgained. This week they’re back at home to face Fresno State. Fresno State was lucky to beat Nevada 34-32 last week. They had to stop a two-point try on the final play. San Diego State hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in any game. They are seventh in the country with just 15.7 points/game allowed. The Aztecs are also better on special teams so they have distinct edges in two of the three phases of the game. Watch the line as SDSU is 8-1 ATS its last nine games as a home underdog. FSU is 0-6 ATS when coming off a game where they allowed 280 or more pass yards. They allowed 476 last week. Play on SAN DIEGO STATE AAA |
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10-30-21 | Wild v. Avalanche -146 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO The Avalanche, considered one of the odds on favorite to win the Stanley Cup, have gotten off to a very disappointing start. Thursday’s 4-3 triumph over St. Louis was just the third win of the season for the Avs. They’ve needed four goals in each of those three wins. They are 0-4 when failing to score four times in a game. Colorado is 30th in goals allowed per game at 3.71. They’ve got to work on getting that number down. We think they will on Saturday when they host Minnesota in a big early season division clash. After a 4-0 start, the Wild have lost two of three games. This will be their third road game in five days. Thursday saw them lose 4-1 to the expansion Kraken. Colorado’s third win of the season should not be dismissed as they were the first team to defeat St. Louis this year. The Avalanche outshot the Blues 42-18. Given what we all thought of the Avs at the start of the year, there’s no reason not to take them at this low price on home ice. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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10-30-21 | Astros v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER While we aren’t exactly sure who will be “starting” this game for the Braves, who are now up two games to one in the 2021 World Series, we are pretty positive that the Astros are going to end up with more hits than they had last night. Led by a masterful outing from Ian Anderson, Atlanta kept Houston hitless for seven innings last night. All the Astros ended up with were two hits for the game as they lost 2-0. We liked it as the Braves were a winner for us and in breaking the game down we did issue a warning to Astros’ fans that the loss of the designated hitter could prove significant in Atlanta. But we trust Houston’s lineup will have at least a little of a bounce back tonight in Game 4 as Atlanta is going with a “bullpen game.” Not facing Anderson is a blessing for the road team, that’s for sure. The Astros still are averaging 5.8 runs/game for the entire postseason. The Braves are 6-0 at home in the playoffs and they stranded nine runners last night. So there’s a pretty clear cut case that they should have put more runs on the board in Game 3. They went 1 for 6 when they had runners in scoring position. Going up against Zack Greinke should help out the Atlanta offense. In Greinke’s only start during these playoffs, he lasted only 1.3 innings and gave up two runs. He’s not the same pitcher he once was and the Over is 26-10 in the Braves last 36 interleague home games vs. right-handed starters. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-30-21 | Kentucky +1.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KENTUCKY The only game Kentucky hasn’t covered is when they were a 31-point favorite vs. a FCS team. The Wildcats hadn’t lost a game straight up until two weeks ago when they fell 30-13 at Georgia. We took them with the points there. Fresh off a bye week and looking to get back in the win column, we look for UK to get the job done here against Mississippi State. The home team in this one has lost three of five. Two losses were close while the Alabama game wasn’t. Kentucky will badly want to win Saturday night as the last time they came away with a victory in Starkville was 2008. We love this spot for Kentucky, especially if they end up closing as the favorite. That’s because Top 15 teams favored by three or less over an unranked foe are 3-0 ATS this season and 11-4 ATS the past five seasons. The Wildcats have covered six straight SEC games, which is the longest active ATS win streak in the conference. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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10-30-21 | Georgia -14 v. Florida | Top | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 9* on GEORGIA Georgia has never been a favorite of 14 or more points against Florida. But this is a special Bulldogs team ranked #1 in the country. The defense is making history, giving up only 6.6 points/game. No defense allows fewer yards/game than this one. It gives up only 208.3 and is also #1 in first downs allowed for the year (just 84). They rank #2 nationally both against the run and the pass. Georgia’s seven wins have been by a combined 220 points and they’ve beaten four ranked teams, the last three all by 17 points or more. This is obviously the best team in the country right now. They have won 11 consecutive games. So we don’t want to bet against them - even if Florida is better than its overall record (4-3). The Gators lost two of three before the bye. Making matters worse for them is that Georgia certainly remembers last year’s 44-28 loss that cost them a fourth straight SEC East Title. Seven of the last eight times these rivals have played, the game has been decided by 14 points or more. This one will be no different. Play on GEORGIA AAA |
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10-30-21 | Michigan v. Michigan State +4 | Top | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 8* on MICHIGAN STATE This weekend’s only matchup of undefeated teams takes place in the state of Michigan. It’s Michigan State facing Michigan. Both teams are in the top 10 and love to run the ball. They also share 6-1 ATS records. But the game takes place in East Lansing and the Spartans are coming off a bye. They are no strangers to being underdogs in this rivalry. All seven times they’ve faced a Jim Harbaugh-coached Michigan team, Sparty has been the dog. They’ve won three of the games straight up. We think they can do that again. They’ve really proven to be just as good - on both sides of the ball - as compared to the Wolverines. We think they have an edge at quarterback too. For Michigan, McNamara is averaging just 7.64 yards/attempt, which is 61st in the FBS. Michigan State’s Thorne averages 243 yards/game and has 15 TD passes against just four interceptions. This is usually the kind of game Michigan loses under Harbaugh. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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10-29-21 | Senators v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Ottawa’s last win was 12 days ago. Tonight, they face the team responsible for that last win. That’s Dallas, who is also on a losing streak entering Friday. While the Senators have lost three in a row, the Stars have dropped two straight. But what’s really interesting about the two teams is the combined Under record. Between the two of them, they have played 13 games this year and 12 of those have stayed Under. The one Over came from Ottawa as they let seven goals in their last game. That was in Washington four days ago. You’ve got to think that the “worm will turn” and we’re destined to have an Over here. The Dallas power play is just 3 for 18, so that’s going to improve. Ottawa is no penalty killing juggernaut. They are in the bottom third of the league when shorthanded. We’re basically betting on the “just due” factor tonight as an Over is bound to hit. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-29-21 | Astros v. Braves -109 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA Atlanta may have been the underdog coming into the World Series, but they quickly wrested away home field advantage by winning Game 1 in Houston. Game 2 was a situation where a play on the Astros seemed obvious, so that’s what we did and we won. But now we like the Braves at home in Game 3. Ian Anderson has been a much better pitcher than Luis Garcia in the playoffs. Anderson’s three starts have resulted in only three runs being allowed. Garcia has given up 10 runs in his three turns in the postseason and that’s despite him pitching only 9.3 innings. Anderson has thrown 12 innings. The Braves have yet to lose two straight in the postseason. We don’t think it will happen now. Off their first three playoff losses, they’ve outscored teams 16-4. Mid-September is the last time the Braves lost consecutive games. They’ve won 66% of the time since August 2nd. The Astros have lost 11 of the last 15 times they’ve played in a National League stadium, which of course means no designated hitter. Such is the case here. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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10-29-21 | Pacers v. Nets UNDER 223.5 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Nets have yet to go Over in any game this year. The Under is 5 for 5 with them and Friday they are playing a Pacers team that has not scored more than 109 points in any of its last three games. Brooklyn has actually been worse at the offensive end. They have scored 104 or less in four of five games. Two of the last three, they’ve failed to hit 100! It was a season-low 93 against Miami two nights ago. The number of combined points scored in the last two Nets games has not exceeded 200. Yet oddsmakers continue to set the number based on reputation. There’s no Kyrie Irving for the Nets and James Harden is struggling. Indiana might be without leading scorer Malcolm Brogdon tonight. Regardless if Brogdon plays or not, the Under is 6-2 the last eight times these teams have met in Brooklyn. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-29-21 | Navy v. Tulsa UNDER 46.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER There is one team in College Football that has gone Over in all of its FBS games this season. That is Tulsa, who returns to the field on Friday off a bye. The Golden Hurricane face a Navy team whose last five games have all seen a combined point total of 47 points or greater. That’s significant because of where tonight’s O/U line currently sits. But we expect a low-scoring affair in the American Conference tonight. That may seem strange. Going over all the 2021 results for both teams, there has been just one game - Navy’s 23-3 loss to Air Force - that has seen less than 47 combined points scored. But Navy’s offense isn’t getting it done this year. They’ve put up more than 20 points just two times. They do not even average 300 yards/game. Their 279.6 yards/game average is fourth worst in the FBS! While Tulsa has scored 67 points and gained 1,000 yards its last two games, they too are not immune from a poor offensive effort. Four of their seven games have resulted in 23 or less points scored. In this game, the Golden Hurricane will not have the same number of possessions as they are used to having. This is because Navy knows how to control the clock. Tulsa’s defense only gave up two touchdowns in its last game. That one went Over only because their opponent got touchdowns from its defense AND special teams. Don’t look for that to happen again tonight. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-28-21 | Spurs v. Mavs -6 | Top | 99-104 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DALLAS After an embarrassing effort in the first game of the season, Dallas has put together two straight impressive wins. They beat Houston in the home opener Tuesday, 116-106. But they failed to cover the 10.5 point spot. Here the number is a lot more manageable as they are set to host San Antonio. Coach Jason Kidd remains a somewhat questionable hire for the Mavericks, however the players seem to be working well with him. A decision was made to play EVERYONE (all 15 players) against the Rockets. The Spurs have had a different leading scorer in every game but just one win. That win came in the opener against Orlando. The Spurs have since lost to the Nuggets, Bucks and Lakers in a trio of fairly close encounters. We can see why some might think SA will keep this game close, but look for Dallas to shoot the ball much better than they have so far. At barely over 40%, the Mavs have the lowest FG% in the league right now. That is not going to continue with the likes of Luka Doncic on the roster. Lay the points here as the Spurs have allowed 121 and 125 points in their previous two games. We've got them ranked as one of the worst teams in the league. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals OVER 50 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Green Bay has won six in a row, covering the spread every time, with Aaron Rodgers throwing 15 touchdown passes and just one interception. Arizona is 7-0 and the last unbeaten team standing. They have covered the spread each of the last five weeks. So this is poised to be one of the better Thursday night games of the season. However, the Packers do have major concerns at wide receiver due to Adams and Lazard both landing on the IR/COVID-19 list. But Rodgers can still make it work. The defensive side of the ball has also been affected by COVID-19 with coordinator Joe Barry set to miss this game. That could be the bigger problem as Arizona comes in averaging 32.1 points/game, which is fourth most in the league. But the Cardinals’ defense also has concerns. JJ Watt is likely done for the season. Both of these defenses have not exactly been facing some of the elite offenses in this league recently. We look for the two quarterbacks - Rodgers and Kyler Murray - to make sure this game goes Over the total. Green Bay has gone Over each of the last five times it has been an underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-28-21 | South Florida v. East Carolina OVER 56 | Top | 14-29 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This was a 44-24 game last year with ECU winning outright as an eight point underdog. That was their first win over USF since 2014. The Pirates came into last year’s meeting having lost each of their first two games by 20 or more points. Unfortunately, the win didn’t lead to any kind of turnaround in Greenville as ECU finished the 2020 season at 3-6. They’ve already matched that win total this season as they come into Thursday’s game at 3-4. USF is 2-5 and last Saturday saw them record their first win against an FBS opponent since 2019 when they beat ECU 45-20. We’re not positive as to who comes out on top this year (although it will likely be ECU), but you can feel safe in expecting another high-scoring battle. USF has scored 31+ in its last two games. But the Bulls have also given up 32 or more five times in 2021. ECU’s defense is also pretty bad, but the Pirates are averaging 33.3 points/game at home. The Over is 9-3-1 in the last 13 USF games and 11-5 in East Carolina’s previous 16 conference games. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-27-21 | Wolves v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 113-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Save for a disastrous effort last Thursday in Miami, the Bucks have been every bit as good as expected to start the new NBA season. The NBA Champs are 3-1 with wins over the Nets, Spurs and Pacers. The last two wins came on the road. Now they return to Milwaukee to take on the upstart Timberwolves. This is a big step up in class for what is still a young Minnesota team. So far they’ve faced New Orleans (who is without Zion Williamson) twice and Houston. All three games came at home. They lost to the Pelicans on Monday, failing to score 100 points for the second straight game. We cannot see where they get the necessary offense to stay with the Bucks tonight. The Bucks have averaged 122.3 points/game in their three wins. We’ve seen more “small ball” recently with Brook Lopez out of the lineup. The Bucks have covered six straight home games when you go back to last year’s championship run. Minnesota was a poor 10-26 in their 36 road games last season. Lay it! Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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10-27-21 | Braves v. Astros -110 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Atlanta jumped all over Houston starter Framber Valdez in Game 1, scoring five times off him in the first three innings. It was pretty much over from there. But like a lot of people, we can’t see the Braves winning two straight on the road to open the World Series. It was a costly win for the Braves last night as Charlie Morton was lost to a season-ending injury. Max Fried will get the baseball in Game 2 and he looked very shaky in his last NLCS start, giving up five runs to the Dodgers in 4.6 innings. Houston did lose back to back games in the ALCS, but other than that they had just one losing streak going back to Labor Day Weekend. Their record at home this year is 55-32. The most recent time that the Astros lost two straight home games was August 22nd and 23rd and those losses came to two different teams. The last time the Astros lost two straight home games to the same opponent was August 5th and 6th to Minnesota. That was nearly three months ago. Game 2 starter Urquidy has a 0.88 WHIP in 10 starts at home. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-27-21 | Maple Leafs v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It’s definitely been an interesting 24 hours for the Blackhawks as president of operations Stan Bowman was forced to resign. On the ice, the team has yet to win this season. Their record is 0-5-1. They join the division rival Coyotes as the only teams in the league yet to win a game. But what has them at the bottom of the league is the fact they have gone over 360 minutes without once holding a lead in a game. There has not been a single game where Chicago didn’t give up at least four goals. Toronto pays a visit to the Windy City tonight. The Maple Leafs aren’t about to take any pity on the Blackhawks considering they are on their own four-game losing streak. During the four-game slide, the Leafs have given up a total of 18 goals. We expect this to be a wide open game between two teams desperate for two points. That means lots of goals. The Leafs’ power play, 0 for 14 so far, is due to break out. The Over is 37-13-3 in Blackhawks’ games if they allow five or more goals in the last game. Play on OVER. AAA |
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10-26-21 | Wild v. Canucks +105 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VANCOUVER The Canucks seek a third straight victory on Tuesday. Only this time they are back on home ice. The previous two wins came in Chicago and Seattle, at the tail end of a six-game road trip. This is actually their first home game of the season! In each of the previous two victories, Vancouver scored four goals. The fact they finished the six-game road trip at 3-2-1 was pretty impressive. The trip took them across all four time zones. Last season, the Canucks were a much more respectable team at home. Minnesota arrives here off its first loss of the young season. They fell behind Nashville 3-0 after one period and could not recover. Penalty killing has been an issue so far for the Wild. They’ve allowed a power play goal in every game thus far. This will be their third game in four nights while the Canucks have had the last two days off. Play on VANCOUVER AAA |
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10-26-21 | Nuggets +7 v. Jazz | Top | 110-122 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Though this is the second night of a back to back for the Nuggets, we expect them to come out and play hard Tuesday on TNT. It was an embarrassing result for them last night as they finished with just 87 points and lost to the lowly Cavs. Tonight they face a team at the opposite end of the NBA hierarchy, that being Utah, who is off to a 2-0 start. The Jazz have covered the spread in both wins. However, keep in mind that the two teams they’ve faced so far: Oklahoma City and Sacramento. The Jazz are well-rested coming into tonight as they have not played since Friday. But the thing with that is they are 0-6 against the spread the previous six times they’ve played a game on three or more days' rest. No one on the Nuggets, besides Nikola Jokic, scored more than 12 points last night. The team shot 9 of 38 from three-point range and just 40% percent overall. We expect across the board improvement from them tonight and do not believe Utah’s rest advantage will play a significant role. If anything, the Jazz could be a little bit rusty. Play on UTAH AAA |
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10-26-21 | Braves v. Astros -129 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -129 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON We think the Braves were pretty lucky to have what was - in our view - an undeserved “home field advantage” in the NLCS. They had 18 fewer regular season wins compared to the Dodgers. But because Atlanta won a weak NL East and LA was in the same division as San Francisco (and had to settle for a Wild Card), the rules said the Braves got the home field edge. They took full advantage by going 3-0 in Truist Park in the NLCS and won the series in six games. We bring this up because the Braves won’t have home field advantage in the World Series against the Astros. They head to Houston for Games 1 and 2 and this will present a challenge for the pitching staff as the Astros are a much stronger lineup than what the Braves are used to facing. There’s no pitcher coming up to bat in these next two games. The Astros have scored 6.7 runs/game in the playoffs. Atlanta gets to use the DH too, but we don’t think they can match the American League team’s firepower. Framber Valdez went eight innings in Game 5 of the ALCS and gave up one run on three hits. The Braves’ Charlie Morton is winless in three postseason starts with a 3.77 ERA. Almost every edge goes to Houston in this series. We’ll take them in Game 1. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-25-21 | Blazers +3 v. Clippers | Top | 86-116 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on POR Portland is off an impressive 134-105 win against Phoenix the other night. In case you forgot, the Suns were in the NBA Finals last July. Now the Blazers head to LA hoping to end a six-game losing streak to the Clippers. The Clippers are not what they once were as Kawhi Leonard is out indefinitely and their record is 0-2. They lost to the Warriors in the first game and the Grizzlies in the second. Both games were close (decided by six points or less) but that doesn’t help if you’re the favorite as the Clippers are tonight. Plus while the two games have ended up close, both times the Clippers found themselves down by double digits. They trailed by as many as 16 in both contests. Portland is averaging 127.5 points/game which is just too many for the Clippers to overcome when laying points. In the early going, LA is shooting only 43.8% from the field. Grab the points. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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10-25-21 | Saints v. Seahawks +4 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SEATTLE It used to be that “Saints vs. Seahawks” meant “Drew Brees vs. Russell Wilson.” But neither of those HOF quarterbacks are starting this game. Brees is retired and under the direction of Jameis Winston, the Saints’ passing attack ranks second to last in the whole league. For Seattle, Geno Smith makes his second start in place of the injured Wilson. While also a downgrade, things may not be as bad as they seem for the Seahawks. Smith has covered the number in six straight starts going back to 2014. He kept his team in the game last Sunday at Pittsburgh. Seattle is 0-2 at home in 2021, something we are not accustomed to seeing. But home teams have had the edge on “Monday Night Football” this year, going 5-1 ATS. This will be the first time since Week 5 of the 2018 season that the Seahawks are underdogs of four or more points. They are 5-0 ATS as home dogs going back to 2011. Facing the possibility of falling to 2-5, this game is more important to the Seahawks. In a battle of two teams that aren’t as good as they used to be, we will take the points. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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10-25-21 | Kings v. Blues OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It’s been two very different starts to the NHL season put forth by these clubs. We saw that on full display Saturday night when the Blues waxed the Kings 7-3 here in St. Louis. The win gave the Blues a 4-0 start to 2021-22. The loss leaves the Kings at 1-3-1 overall and they’ve lost four in a row. While Monday night’s rematch may not see the same number of goals scored on Saturday, we still like the Over here. Saturday wasn’t the first time St. Louis scored seven goals in a game this season. They also did it last Monday in Arizona. They’ve scored five or more times in three of their four games and at least three goals in every game. All 20 skaters that have seen ice time have registered a point. Los Angeles may not be scoring as much, but they are getting off a good number of shots per game (36.8). If they continue to do so, then you have to figure that the goals will come. Overshadowed by getting blown out Saturday night is that the Kings did score three goals of their own. The Blues might be using a backup goalie tonight. The Over is 16-7-2 when the Kings allowed five or more goals in their previous game. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-24-21 | Warriors -3.5 v. Kings | Top | 119-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GSW Golden State is 2-0 after sweeping the two LA teams. They upset the Lakers 121-114 on Opening Night. Then they defeated the Clippers 115-113 on Thursday. Two close wins, but in the Clippers game they did lead by as many as 19 at one juncture. Steph Curry made 10 three pointers in that game and scored 45 points. We’re starting to see “the Warriors of old.” While we aren’t saying they are back to that championship level, they are certainly better than a Sacramento team that hasn’t made the playoffs in 15 years. The Kings did win their first game, 124-121 over Portland, but couldn’t hold off Utah in a 110-101 loss on Friday. This is a situation where we simply believe one team (Golden State) is much better than the other and we’re getting an early season discount. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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10-24-21 | Colts v. 49ers OVER 42.5 | Top | 30-18 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Indianapolis put up 31 points last week in a win over Houston. The week before that they put up 25 against Baltimore. The week before that they scored 27 against Miami. So that’s an average of 27.7 points the last three weeks and the offense is averaging 416.7 yards to boot. Carson Wentz is playing well for them. He has already thrown for more than 1500 yards and nine touchdowns against just one interception. Versus Baltimore, Wentz threw for a career-high 402 yards and then he averaged more than 20 yards per completion last week against Houston. So we expect them to put up a solid number of points this week. The Colts would have even more points scored this year if not for some unfortunate red zone inefficiency. As for San Francisco, Jimmy G is back in the starting lineup. The last time he finished a game was also on a Sunday night (vs. Green Bay) and the 49ers scored 28 points. The team is coming off a bye, so they’ve had plenty of time to prepare for facing the Colts' defense. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-24-21 | Bears +13 v. Bucs | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -122 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO The Bears are playing the Bucs this week, which looks like a mismatch on paper. However, this is a lot of points for the road team to be getting. Three of Tampa Bay’s wins have been by no more than six points. Another saw them return two late interceptions for touchdowns to make a deceiving final score. So we expect the Bears to at least “hang around” Sunday and keep this one respectable. Tampa Bay has a big division game on deck (at New Orleans) and could be looking past this one. There are four starters out due to injuries and all of them are big names (Gronk, Antonio Brown, Lavonte David and Richard Sherman). The Bucs defense has not exactly been very good. They’ve allowed the sixth most passing yards per game. Only one win has come against a Top 10 defense and that was a two-point victory at New England. The Bears’ defense leads the league in sacks. They beat Tampa Bay last season 20-19. Again, we expect this one to be relatively close. Grab the points. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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10-24-21 | Eagles v. Raiders -2.5 | Top | 22-33 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LV Philadelphia was very lucky to cover last Thursday against Tampa Bay. They were down 28-7 in the third quarter. After scoring a TD late in the third quarter, they scored another late in the fourth, then added a 2-point conversion to get within the number. Tampa Bay drove the ball down inside the Eagles’ five yard line on the final possession, but ended up kneeling to run the clock out. Total yards in the game were 399-213 in the Buccaneers' favor. While it technically counts as a “close loss” for the Eagles, it was anything but. We don’t like their chances this week as they go into Las Vegas to face a Raiders team that is off a commanding 34-24 win over Denver last week. The Raiders are 4-2 and last week was an amazing performance when you consider all the drama caused by former coach Jon Gruden. The team is obviously willing to play hard for interim coach Rich Bisaccia. The Eagles are not well respected by the oddsmakers. They are one of only four teams that has been an underdog in every game. Their defense is 28th against the run. If not for a late comeback against Carolina two weeks ago, they’d be coming into this game on a five-game losing streak. Led by Derek Carr, look for the Raiders to move to 5-2 on the year and easily cover this short spread. Play on LAS VEGAS AAA |
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10-24-21 | Bengals +6.5 v. Ravens | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 9* on CINCY This is where we find out if the Bengals are “for real” or not. They come in with a 4-2 record. The only two losses have been by three points. They’ve also won two games by a field goal. Last week saw them record their most comfortable victory of the still-young season, winning 34-11 at Detroit. QB Burrow threw three touchdown passes in a game that was never really close. It will be a much tougher test this week in Baltimore. The Ravens are 3-0 at home so far. But two of the three wins came by six points or less. They too are off a dominant win, 34-6 over the Chargers in their case. With Lamar Jackson as the starting quarterback, the Ravens have really had the Bengals number the last couple years. But here’s the thing. The Bengals are now much better. Their defense is up to eighth in yards given up and fifth in points allowed. Because of the expectation that this game may be pretty low scoring, we will take the points. Cincinnati has covered five of its last seven trips into Baltimore. Burrow is 6-2 ATS as an underdog of three or more points. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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10-24-21 | Jets v. Patriots UNDER 43 | Top | 13-54 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER The Patriots are still without a home win this year, but that’s likely to change after today. They host the Jets, a team they’ve already beaten 25-6. But if New England is to pick up that elusive first home victory, expect it to come in low scoring fashion. We are on the Under in this AFC East matchup. The Jets are off a bye and have been an underdog in every game. Rookie QB Wilson threw four picks the first time he faced Belichick’s defense. It was not a pretty sight. Here’s the thing though: the Patriots’ offense gained only 260 yards in that game. In three of the four home games this year, New England has failed to score 20 points. So we’re not counting on them scoring a ton here. Most of those 25 points they scored in the first game with the Jets were off turnovers. For the Jets, QB Wilson hasn’t matured enough where we’d expect him to play that much better in this rematch. But he should limit the turnovers this time. The Jets’ offense hasn’t gained 300 total yards in any game that didn’t go to overtime. That’s pretty sad. The Jets are last in points per game (13.4), 31st in total yards and 31st in rushing. New England only had 14 points with six minutes to go last week and they rank 26th in total yards and 27th in rushing yards. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-23-21 | Suns v. Blazers OVER 231.5 | Top | 105-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Phoenix was two wins away from an NBA Championship in July. But they lost four straight to the Bucks and that was that. This season began with them losing 110-98 at home to Denver. The Suns finally got back into the win column last night with an emphatic 115-105 win over the Lakers, out in LA. It was not a close game much of the way. The Suns led by 27 going into the fourth quarter. It was also not a game that featured much in the way of good shooting. The Suns made only 31.3 percent of their 3PA, so it’s impressive that they were up so big. Of course it helped that the Lakers were just 34 of 86 from the field. Tonight Phoenix is up against a Portland team that’s played only once and lost 124-121 to the Kings. It was not a surprise that the game was so high scoring. The Blazers and Kings were the two worst defensive teams in the league last year. So we’re predicting this to be Phoenix’s highest scoring game of the young season and it will go Over the total. The Over is 34-16-2 when the Suns are off an ATS win. The Over is also 6-1 for Portland when they are coming off a SU loss. The Blazers should once again be a prolific offensive team this season and the Suns will be happy to trade baskets with them. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-23-21 | San Diego State v. Air Force -3 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AIR FORCE 6-0 San Diego State holds two wins over the Pac 12. But the Aztecs face their toughest test to date this week at Air Force. The Falcons also have six wins this year. They did lose once, a 49-45 shootout vs. Utah State where both teams had over 600 total yards of offense. You should not expect that amount of offense in this game. Oddsmakers opened the total at 42.5 and it has DROPPED. Also, that loss to Utah State is looking more curious with each passing week as the AFA defense has not given up more than 17 points in any other game! Boise State, whom the Falcons beat 24-17 last Saturday, is the only other team besides Utah State to even crack 300 yards on this defense (Broncos gained 337). San Diego State has a nice defense too. But the season average is still on par with Air Force despite the Falcons having that one bad game. San Diego State is lucky to still be undefeated as they needed two overtimes last Friday to get by San Jose State. The Aztecs were outgained 345-240 and had just six points (two field goals) at the end of regulation. They just do not have the offense to keep up in Colorado Springs where they will be frothing at the mouth to end an eight-game losing streak to SDSU. At least one unbeaten team goes down on Saturday night. Play on AIR FORCE AAA |
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10-23-21 | Rice v. UAB OVER 44.5 | Top | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Except when they played Georgia (gave up 56 points) and Liberty (gave up 36), the defense of UAB has been pretty stout in 2021. That’s nothing new under Bill Clark. The Blazers had a solid defense last year as well. The Under is 6-1 in their games this season and 5-0 the last five. They are not facing an opponent the caliber of Georgia or Liberty this week. Rice has been shutout twice and scored no more than 17 points four different times. But UAB could put this one Over themselves. Again, taking away those two games vs. Georgia and Liberty, the Blazers offense has scored a minimum of 28 points every game. They’ve scored 31 and 34 the past two games and that was against defenses that aren’t as bad as the one they face this week. Rice gave up 45 last week at UTSA. It was the fifth game this season where the Owls allowed at least 34 points. They’ve allowed 34 or more in half of their games. Give us at least one touchdown Rice and we’ll like our chances with the Over. The Over has hit in all of Rice’s previous five visits to Birmingham. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-23-21 | Wake Forest v. Army +3 | Top | 70-56 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARMY After consecutive three point victories (over Louisville and Syracuse), undefeated Wake Forest probably needed the week off. The 6-0 Demon Deacons, now ranked 16th in the land, will next put that record to the test against Army. A week off before facing the Cadets is always preferable due to the added preparation for the triple option offense. But in the case of Wake, we just don’t see them having much success stopping Army’s ground game on Saturday. In those last two wins we spoke of (Louisville, Syracuse), Wake allowed 567 yards rushing. Ouch. Army averages nearly 300 rush yards/game. They were held well below that mark last week. But that was because they were facing a Wisconsin defense that is #1 in the country vs. the run and thus uniquely suited to stop them. The same can’t be said for this Demon Deacons’ defense. Army was 4-0 before suffering a shocking loss to Ball State, then losing by three in Madison. Now getting to play host to a Power 5 school will ensure there is no letdown in West Point. Wake is 1-5 ATS its last six tries as a road favorite. Army has covered seven of the last nine times it has been an underdog to a Power 5 team. Play on ARMY AAA |
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10-23-21 | Illinois v. Penn State OVER 45 | Top | 20-18 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER Oh hi Penn State, we’d almost forgotten about you. It’s been two weeks since the Nittany Lions suffered their first loss of the year. They lost 23-20 at Iowa, a game where their four turnovers played a significant role in the outcome. James Franklin’s team got last week off to recoup and now should be ready to hand out a beatdown in State College to visiting Illinois. The Fighting Illini come into this one with a 2-5 straight up record and one of those wins came back in August. That would be when we had them vs. Nebraska in the season opener and they pulled the upset. They too are coming off a bye. Despite that, both teams could be without their starting quarterbacks for this one. We still like the Over. Illinois should be used to playing without Brandon Peters at this point. Backup Artur Sitkowski was in for the first two games where the Illini put up 30 plus points. Illinois can also run the ball as the duo of Brown and McCray have gone for 748 yards. We don’t have much confidence in the Illini’s ability to defend, however. Starter Sean Clifford practiced this week for Penn State. But the Nittany Lions may not even need him. That’s because Illinois’ defense ranks last in the Big 10 in scoring, pass defense, total defense and third down rate. They allowed 493 yards in the last game (to a Wisconsin offense that hasn’t been impressive otherwise). Play on OVER AAA |
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10-22-21 | Red Sox -101 v. Astros | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON All of a sudden, the Red Sox have stopped hitting and they now find themselves facing elimination heading into Game 6 at Houston. The last two games, Boston has managed only eight hits and three runs, a far cry from the first two games of this ALCS when they had 32 hits and 25 runs. In fact, there was a six-game stretch in these playoffs where the Red Sox scored 51 times and collected 79 hits! We think they get back to that tonight with their season on the line. They’ll be facing Luis Garcia again. Garcia could only record three outs when he started Game 2 and served up one of the three Red Sox grand slams in this series. Boston will give the baseball to Nathan Eovaldi. He has a 10-1 team start record since August 23rd and has posted a 0.89 WHIP in his last three starts. Eovaldi’s recent numbers are a far cry from those of Garcia, who has an 0-3 TSR, 13.49 ERA and 2.54 WHIP in his last three trips to the mound. Yes, we remember that Eovaldi was one of the culprits in letting Game 4 get away (which really turned this series). But that was a unique relief situation and we expect him to resume his string of excellent starts. Over the last month-plus, the Red Sox have only one losing streak of more than two games. That won’t happen here. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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10-22-21 | Nets -1 v. 76ers | Top | 114-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BROOKLYN The Nets will look to rebound from a poor Opening Night performance when they travel to Philadelphia on Friday. The Sixers are a mess right now with the ongoing Ben Simmons drama. Of course, Brooklyn has its own share of drama with Kyrie Irving. But they can still call upon both Kevin Durant and James Harden. That may have not been enough when facing Milwaukee Tuesday, but we expect them to play far better here. The 76ers did beat the Pelicans by 20 on Wednesday. But tonight they are unlikely to shoot the ball as well as they did in that first game when they connected on over half their field goal attempts, including 52% from three. Really, this play boils down to two simple things: we think the Nets are better and also can’t see them starting 0-2. They were underdogs Tuesday. Tonight they are favorites. They are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. Play on BROOKLYN AAA |
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10-22-21 | Memphis v. Central Florida +1.5 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 50 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UCF UCF has seen its season go in a bad direction ever since QB Dillon Gabriel was injured on the final play of the Louisville game. That play saw Gabriel throw a pick six to cost his team the game and they’ve lost two of three since. One of the losses was to Navy as a 15-point favorite. The other was last week to Cincinnati as a 22-point underdog. We’re obviously not going to penalize a team for losing to Cincinnati. In between the losses, both of which came on the road, the Golden Knights did defeat East Carolina 20-16 here at home. Now they are hosting Memphis on Friday. The Tigers come in having just snapped their own three-game losing streak. They beat Navy 35-17 at the Liberty Bowl. It was the first time this season that Memphis faced a FBS opponent and the game wasn’t decided by six points or less. We can see the home team squeaking out a close one here. Memphis relied on big plays to beat Navy, something they can’t always count on. The Tigers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games and 3-10 ATS coming off a straight up win. The last 14 meetings between the two schools have seen the home team cover 13 times and the one exception was UCF. Play on UCF AAA |
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10-22-21 | Sharks v. Maple Leafs OVER 6 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Sharks are off to a 3-0 start. They scored nine times in the first two games, beating Winnipeg 4-3 and Montreal 5-0. Then came a 2-1 win over Ottawa two nights ago. They are scoring on 13.7% of their shot attempts thus far, which is a very high number, but it should continue tonight when they face Toronto’s backup goaltender. Michael Hutchinson is getting the callup from the AHL to start this one for the Maple Leafs. Their #1 goaltender (Jack Campbell) is set to start tomorrow’s game against the Penguins. All four Toronto games so far have gone Under with none seeing more than five combined goals scored. But this one should put an end to that streak. We don’t see the backup goalie doing all that well in his first start as he’s only getting the shot because Toronto’s normal backup (Petr Mrazek) sustained a groin injury in the Ottawa game. Before losing the last game 2-1 to the Rangers, the Leafs had scored multiple games in each of the first three games. San Jose’s goaltenders haven’t faced very many shots thus far. That should change in this game. Toronto is averaging 37.0 shots/contest. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-21-21 | Broncos v. Browns OVER 41 | Top | 14-17 | Loss | -106 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER A multitude of injuries on the Cleveland side have seen this spread drop like a rock and with it, the total has come down as well. But be mindful of the fact that Denver just put up over 400 yards last week in a loss to the Raiders. They only scored 24 points because they had four turnovers. The Browns defense isn’t very good; it has given up 84 points the last two games. So we expect the Broncos to score a decent amount of points in this Thursday night road tilt. But their own defense has some issues that may not be properly addressed in a short week. Since a 3-0 start that saw them hold the Giants, Jets and Jaguars to a total of 26 points, Denver’s defense has given up an average of 28 points in three straight losses. The Browns will start Case Keenum at QB. Most will tell you how this is a downgrade from Baker Mayfield and they aren’t wrong. Keenum is not helped by the fact that over half of the Browns’ offensive starters are injured. However, the Broncos’ defense has a ton of injuries as well. Three linebackers are out. The Over is 6-2 the last eight times the Browns have been off a loss. Too many things can happen in an NFL game - like a touchdown by the defense or special teams - for us not to choose Over when the total is this low. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-21-21 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The late innings have been unkind to under bettors the last two nights in MLB. We know as we had the Under two nights ago in Houston-Boston, a game that was 2-2 heading into the ninth. The Astros erupted for seven runs in the final frame though. Them putting two on the board in the ninth last night also sent that ALCS game Over. It’s been a similar deal here in the NLCS with a four-run eighth inning rally by the Dodgers sending Tuesday’s game Over and then a four-run ninth by the Braves sending last night’s game Over. We are on the Under in Game 5. Excluding the eighth inning eruption in Game 3, the Dodgers have not done much at the plate in this series. They were held to four hits in Game 4. Now it’s Max Fried pitching for Atlanta. Fried has been the best starter in baseball over the second half of the season. In his last seven starts, Fried has a 1.34 ERA and 0.78 WHIP, leading the Braves to a 7-0 record. He’s given up only four runs in his last five starts. The Dodgers turn to their bullpen to try and keep their season alive. We’ll count on them to limit the Braves’ offense as visiting teams have scored only 3.3 runs/game at Dodger Stadium in 2021 and hit just .209. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-21-21 | Mavs v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 87-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA The Hawks flew their way into the Eastern Conference Finals last season before eventually bowing out to Milwaukee in six games. After hiring Nate McMillian to be the head coach on March 1st, no team in the East had a better won-loss record than Atlanta’s 27-11. They also won 23 of their final 29 home games. The entire core of that team has been brought back and there have been some minor additions. What made the Hawks’ late season run so impressive is that they had several key players injured. Now fully healthy, we expect them to challenge for a top three spot in the standings. Can’t say the same for Dallas out in the Western Conference. Jason Kidd was a questionable coaching hire in our view. The Mavericks did not get out of the first round last season and are no better on paper for 2021-22. It’s only the first game of the season, but one motivating factor for the Hawks is they lost both games to the Mavs last year. Both losses occurred before McMillian was hired. Atlanta is 18-4 ATS its last 22 games as a home favorite. It’s a small number tonight. Lay it! Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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10-21-21 | Florida Atlantic v. Charlotte +7 | Top | 38-9 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHARLOTTE Charlotte, despite having a better record than Florida Atlantic, is a touchdown underdog at home on Thursday. The 49ers’ only losses were by 9 pts to Georgia State and by 10 points to Illinois. Both of those losses occurred out on the road. They’ve won all three home games, including an upset of Duke in the opener. Two weeks ago saw them go to Florida International and win 45-33. Florida Atlantic is the road team in this one and they are 0-3 in that role this year. All three losses have been by 17 points or more. Now the teams the Owls have traveled to face - Florida, Air Force and UAB - are all pretty good. But they only scored 35 points in those games. Charlotte has covered the last four times these teams have played. We won’t go so far as to say they’ll win Thursday night, but we like them plus the points. Play on CHARLOTTE AAA |
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10-21-21 | Hurricanes v. Canadiens OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It’s been a terrible start for Montreal, a team that was in the Stanley Cup Finals just a few months ago. The Canadiens have begun the season 0-4 and given up 15 goals in the process. They’ve scored only three. Not having Carey Price (leave of absence) in goal has hurt, although he can’t help the Habs score. Nor can he fix a power play that’s gone 0 for 13 in the first four games. But power play percentages have their way of working themselves out. Tonight, we will project Montreal to score at least two goals in a game for the first time. But the other end of the ice remains a problem as they face Carolina, who has already found the back of the net nine times in two wins to open its campaign. The Hurricanes have been off for four days and won’t take it easy on the Canadiens. One saving grace for the Habs is that the ‘Canes did allow 40 shots on goal in their last game. With the Over 9-3 the past 12 times Carolina has been on three or more days rest, this one promises to be another high-scoring affair. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-20-21 | Blues v. Golden Knights -122 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -122 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VEGAS Vegas is banged up heading into Wednesday’s tilt with St. Louis. It’s pretty fortunate then that they’ve had the Blues’ number. Last year, the Golden Knights captured six of the eight head to head matchups. Going back further, they’ve won 8 of 10 over the Blues. We don’t think this one will be any different. The Blues are 2-0 with 12 goals scored. But this is their third road game in five days, a tough situation even at the start of the season. Pavel Buchnevich just got handed a two-game suspension for his hit on Arizona’s Lawson Crouse. He had a goal and two assists in the first two games. The Golden Knights have not played since last Friday when they were beaten 6-2 by the Kings. They are 6-1 the last seven times they have been off a game where they gave up five or more goals. Play on VEGAS AAA |
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10-20-21 | Rockets +5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 106-124 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON The Houston Rockets are not expected to be all that competitive for the 2021-22 season. Most prognostications have them and Oklahoma City as the likely two worst teams in the Western Conference. But should Minnesota, another team that’s not very good, be laying this many points in a season opener? Probably not. The Timberwolves have made the playoffs only once since 2003-04. While they did improve some after a coaching change, they still ranked near the bottom of the league defensively last year. They brought some new pieces to help them on the defensive end, but the problem is those players are liabilities at the offensive end. Other than Karl-Anthony Towns, there just aren’t many good two-way players on this roster. The T’wolves were only favored in 11 games last season and lost five of them. Their scoring differential when favored was only +1.5 per game. So they are not a team you’d want to lay points with. Houston is young and basically playing with “house money” coming into the new season. They had a winning (ATS) record as a road underdog last season and are capable of pulling the upset here. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-20-21 | Braves v. Dodgers -208 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -208 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 6* on LA DODGERS Momentum has definitely shifted in the NLCS as the Dodgers were five outs away from being in an 0-3 hole to the Braves. Instead, thanks mainly to Cody Bellinger, they came back last night and won Game 3 by a score of 6-5. They’ve had a two-run lead in every game in this series and it’s difficult for us not to view them as the superior ballclub. Atlanta, who also took the first two games of last year’s NLCS against the Dodgers, now has to be a bit “shell-shocked” and feeling an all-too familiar sense of “deja vu.” We love the Dodgers with Julio Urias starting in Game 4. Urias was baseball’s only 20-game winner in the regular season. He comes into tonight with a 21-3 overall record. The Dodgers are 27-6 in all of his starts this season and have won the last 12! While Urias, when used as a reliever in Game 2, could not protect a lead in Game 2, he’ll be a lot better tonight in his normal role of starter. Atlanta is going with a “bullpen game” tonight, meaning we don’t officially know who is going to start. Nor do we care. The Dodgers are the better team and seized momentum last night. The Braves are 0-6 as a road underdog of +175 to +250 since 2019, four of those losses coming this season. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State OVER 61.5 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State meet Wednesday night in a matchup that is very likely to determine who represents the East Division in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. Coastal Carolina won the division last year and had a perfect 11-0 SU record going into the bowls. They are perfect again (so far) this year with a 6-0 SU record. Appalachian State has already lost two games in 2021, but only one in conference play and that was last week to Louisiana, which came by a rather shocking score of 41-13. The Mountaineers lost at Coastal Carolina 34-23 last year, a result that decided the SBC East Division. Coastal Carolina is even stronger this year as they have scored at least 49 points five times and averaged 54.7 points their last three games. So considering how many points App State allowed last week to Louisiana, this is an automatic ‘Over’ for us. One would expect the home team is going to score a lot more than it did last week. The Mountaineers averaged 35.2 points/game the first five weeks of the season. They are easily the best team Coastal Carolina has played this season. Both teams will have no problem getting to 30 points. The Over is 6-0 the past six times Appalachian State has been off an ATS defeat. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-19-21 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 228.5 | Top | 121-114 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Two former NBA Champs square off on opening night when the Lakers host the Warriors. Both teams had found themselves in the “play-in round” last season. For Golden State, that was an improvement upon the injury-riddled 2019-20 campaign. For the Lakers, that was a massive dropoff after winning the NBA Finals. The Lakers beat the Warriors in the play-in round, but didn’t make it much further as they were eliminated by the Suns in six games in Round 1 of the playoffs. The Warriors could not even make it that far as they lost the second play-in game (to Memphis) as well. For this first game of the new season, we like the Under. The Lakers added Russell Westbrook to the core that already included LeBron and Anthony Davis. But the rest of their roster isn’t good. It will take awhile for Westbrook to figure out how to play with the other two stars. Klay Thompson is still not back for the Warriors. Both teams were top five in the league in defensive efficiency a year ago. There will be some early season “rust” to shake off here and we don’t think the game will be that high-scoring. The Under is 6-2 the past eight meetings. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-19-21 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER We are 2-0 in the ALCS. Both wins, which came in Games 1 and 3, were with the Over. It sure didn’t take long for the Over to hit last night. For the third time in two games, the Red Sox hit a grand slam. They were up 6-0 after two innings and 9-0 after three. It was when the Astros scored three runs in the top of the fourth that the Over officially became a winner. But we are “switching sides” tonight in Game 4 as it’s time this ALCS saw an Under. The Over is 3-0 in the series and 5-0 the last five times the teams have met. Not shocking as these were two of the highest scoring teams in baseball during the regular season. They have both gone Over in six straight playoff games. But the O/U line is higher (up to 10.0) for Game 4 and Zack Greinke is the key for the Astros. Greinke has yet to start a playoff game in 2021. He had a mediocre regular season. But we think he’ll “step up” like he did when he threw a scoreless inning of relief against the White Sox in the ALDS. But the problem for Houston is that they had only five hits in last night’s loss. Assuming the Red Sox stop hitting grand slams, a wise assumption based on the fact they are already the first team EVER to hit three in the same series, their scoring is set to go down. Nick Pivetta will start for Boston. He threw four scoreless innings of relief in his last appearance and held the Astros to just two runs in six innings when he faced them in the regular season. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-19-21 | Canucks -155 v. Sabres | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VANCOUVER Buffalo is 2-0 on the young season, but we’d hold off on printing playoff tickets. The Sabres were a last place team a season ago, finishing with only 37 points. At one point, they lost 18 consecutive games. Jack Eichel is injured and still likely to be traded. The team’s second leading scorer from last year, Sam Reinhart, is now skating down in Florida. The two teams that Buffalo has beaten thus far, Montreal and Arizona, are a combined 0-5-1. They needed a shootout to get by the ‘Yotes on Saturday. So Tuesday looks like a probable first loss as Vancouver comes to upstate New York. The Canucks are 1-1-1 thus far with every game coming on the road. After the first two games were decided in shootouts, they lost 3-1 in Detroit on Saturday. But that score was misleading. The Red Wings not only got an empty-net goal in the final minute, but were also outshot by the Canucks 41-21. It was a simple case of Vancouver running into a hot goaltender. We can’t see Sabres’ goaltender Craig Anderson, who is 40 years old, having many more games like the one he had vs. Montreal. Play on VANCOUVER AAA |
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10-19-21 | Sharks v. Canadiens -150 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -150 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MONTREAL The Canadiens are desperate here as they’ve started the season 0-3. That’s the worst record in the league right now. Every loss has come in regulation and the Habs have only managed one goal in each game. With two days off to do some serious “soul-searching,” they should bounce back and finally get into the win column tonight, hosting the Sharks. Even though there’s no Carey Price in goal right now, let us not disregard that the Habs made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals in June. It’s not so much Price not being between the pipes, but the lack of offense - and an 0 for 11 power play - that’s the biggest culprit in the team’s first 0-3 start in over a quarter century. The offense should fix itself tonight against a San Jose team that gave up three goals in its opener. The Sharks did win, 4-3 over the Jets, but a team with five rookies in the lineup and no Evander Kane isn’t going to be very good on a nightly basis. San Jose does have a five-game win streak at the Bell Centre, but has not played here since March of 2019. That was a much different (and better) team back then. Play on MONTREAL AAA |
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10-18-21 | Ducks v. Flames -185 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -185 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CALGARY Calgary should have its way with Anaheim tonight. This is just the second game for the Flames. The first was a 5-2 loss to Edmonton. But 5 v 5, we thought they looked pretty strong against the Oilers. The problem was that they gave up two power play goals. They did outshoot their rival 47-33. Anaheim has already played twice and we went against them Saturday vs. Minnesota. After winning the opener 4-1 over Winnipeg, they lost 2-1 to the Wild (just as we thought). In two games, the Ducks have allowed 77 shots. That’s a lot. Anaheim was a bad team last year as they finished with only 43 points. Like we said in the previous writeup, it’s been awhile since the Ducks weren’t bad. The last three seasons have all seen them finish at/near the bottom of the division. The favorite has won 47 of the last 68 times these teams have played. Play on CALGARY AAA |
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10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans OVER 53 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Though they lost Week 1 to the Steelers, this start to the season that the Bills have put together really couldn’t be much more dominant. They’ve scored the most points in the league and also given up the fewest. On Monday they will face the Titans, a team that beat them 42-16 in a rare Tuesday game last season, and we believe that the Buffalo offense will keep humming right along. We warned you about this Tennessee defense back in Week 1 when we played the Cardinals. The Titans gave up 38 points in that game. They have given up at least 27 in three of their five games, one of those times coming against the Jets who are last in the league in scoring. The Bills come in averaging 34.4 points/game and should hit that average tonight. As for the Bills having allowed the fewest points, it obviously helps that they have faced Miami and Houston. The other three games have seen them give up 20 or more points every time. Tennessee remains a strong team offensively with RB Derrick Henry, who has 640 yards and four straight 100-plus yard games. The Over is 25-9-1 in the Titans’ last 35 games overall and 7-1 the last eight times they have been an underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Let’s not overcomplicate or overthink things here. The two teams in this year’s American League Championship Series do not struggle to score runs. Houston leads all of MLB with a 5.4 runs/game scoring average. There is no drop off in scoring when they hit the road. They have scored five or more runs in nine straight games, going back to the final series of the regular season. The last seven games, which includes the regular season finale, has seen them average 6.9 runs/games while batting .293. The Astros will need to score plenty of runs to win here in Boston because the Red Sox average 5.8 runs/game at Fenway Park. That led the league in scoring at home. Going back to the Wild Card Game, Boston has averaged 6.4 runs/game and hit .318. There are reasons to be concerned about both starters in Game 3 on Monday. For Houston, Jose Urquidy has not pitched since the regular season finale. Eduardo Rodriguez of Boston has a 5.78 ERA at Fenway this year. Even worse is his 7.02 ERA in 10 career postseason starts and his 11.57 ERA in two regular season starts vs. the Astros. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-17-21 | Seahawks +5.5 v. Steelers | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 52 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEA So no Russell Wilson for Seattle. But are people really willing to lay this many points with a Pittsburgh team everyone was writing off two weeks ago? Before beating Denver 27-19 last week, the Steelers had lost three in a row and not scored 17 points in any of the games. They aren’t a good team by any means. In the win over Denver, JuJu Smith-Schuster was lost to a season-ending injury. So that makes the offense even worse. The Seahawks’ offense obviously takes a massive hit without Wilson. But remember that Geno Smith, the first QB other than Wilson to start for Seattle since 2011, did drive the field for a TD when he had to come in last Thursday. Getting the mini-bye is a big assist to Smith, who is 5-0 ATS his L5 games as a starter. The Seahawks are 16-8 ATS under Pete Carroll as an underdog of four or more points. The last five times Pittsburgh has been favored, they have lost the game. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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10-17-21 | Dodgers -171 v. Braves | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -171 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA DODGERS The Braves had “their man” (Max Fried) on the hill for Game 1. It resulted in a 3-2 win as the home team walked off in the bottom of the ninth, thanks to an Austin Riley base hit. But now it’s the Dodgers’ turn to go with their best pitcher and that obviously means Max Scherzer. The only Scherzer start that Los Angeles has lost was Game 3 of the NLDS. He still went seven innings, had 10 strikeouts and gave up only one run on three hits. It was a 1-0 loss. But Scherzer got his revenge on the Giants when he retired the side, with two strikeouts, in the bottom of the ninth of Game 5. Having now made 13 starts for the Dodgers, Scherzer has allowed 0 or 1 run in 10 of them. After a loss is when you really want to back LA. They are 16-2 after their last 18 losses. Going all the way back to the end of July, there have been only two times where the Dodgers lost two in a row. One was late July, the other was early September. We haven’t mentioned the fact Atlanta is starting Ian Anderson in Game 2 because it’s pretty inconsequential to this play. You’ve got to back the Dodgers tonight. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-17-21 | Stars v. Senators OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The Stars and Senators both have two games under their belts. Each team also lost last night after winning their respective season openers. They’ve also both gone Under in both of their games. What’s really crazy is that the final scores for their first and second games were also the same. So there’s a lot these two have in common. Dallas beat the Rangers 3-2 before losing at Boston 3-1. Ottawa split its games with Toronto, winning the first 3-2 and losing the second 3-1. Playing against each other tonight, the most likely result is an Over. Since both teams fell behind early last night, we expect them to come out firing in this game. Dallas allowed 40 shots on goal last night. The Over is 12-3-3 the L18 times they’ve faced a team that scored two or less goals in its last game. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns OVER 48 | Top | 37-14 | Win | 100 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Well, there’s a lot going on with this matchup isn’t there?. Arizona, the only undefeated team left in the NFL, will be without its head coach and QB coach because of COVID-19. This is on top of several on the field absences: Center Rodney Hudson, TE Maxx Williams and LB Chandler Jones. But Cleveland is not unscathed coming into Week 6 either. They will be missing RB Nick Chubb. There were 16 others on the injury report, several of whom will not play. But these teams are still more than capable of sending this one Over the total. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is having an MVP caliber season thus far as he has completed 70% of his passes in four straight games. The offense is fourth in points per game at 31.4. The Browns were just involved in a 47-42 game last week. They lost despite gaining 531 yards. While Chubb is out, Baker Mayfield can still hand the ball to Kareem Hunt, who once led the NFL in rushing.. Arizona being banged up in the secondary should open things up for the Browns in the passing game. When these defense have turned in quality performances this year, it has been because they’ve faced subpar quarterbacks. We believe the total has come down too much for this matchup. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-17-21 | Chargers +2.5 v. Ravens | Top | 6-34 | Loss | -102 | 45 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAC The Chargers look like a good team this year. They are 4-1 straight up and ATS. They are 8-1 ATS L9 games, going back to 2020. They lead the AFC West after coming back to beat Cleveland 47-42 last week. They had a season-high 500+ yards in the game. The Chargers’ only loss was to Dallas on a last second field goal. QB Herbert seems like the real deal. He is fourth in passing yards and third in touchdowns. Now LA faces Baltimore, who is on a short week. The Ravens needed a wild comeback of their own to beat the Colts 31-25 on Monday night. It was their fourth win in a row, but third by six points or less. The other two were by a combined three points. They just as easily could be 1-4 straight up and we’d be having a much different conversation here. The Chargers are 49-22-5 ATS as road underdogs, 5-2 with Herbert as the quarterback. We will go with the better team getting points. Play on LA CHARGERS AAA |
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10-17-21 | Bengals -180 v. Lions | Top | 34-11 | Win | 100 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CINCY MONEY LINE Poor Detroit can’t seem to buy a break. Twice in the past three weeks they have lost on a last second field goal. Last week they battled back from a 16-6 fourth quarter deficit and took a 17-16 lead with 37 seconds left. But they let Minnesota drive down to kick a game winning field goal on the final play. It was a very similar story and the same 19-17 final three weeks ago vs. Baltimore when Matt Prater got them with a record-setting 66 yard field goal at the gun. We get why people may think the Lions could break through this week when they host Cincinnati. But how can they overcome such continual heartbreak? Cincinnati is 3-2 after losing in overtime to Green Bay last week. Four of their five games have been decided by a field goal. So we won’t lay the points, but we do like the Bengals to win. The Lions haven’t scored more than 17 points in any of the last four weeks and Jared Goff is averaging only 6.6 yards per pass attempt. The team has covered back to back games just twice in its last six tries. Cincy has wins over Minnesota and Pittsburgh and could have beaten Green Bay. The money line means we don’t have to worry about them winning by more than three. Play CINCINNATI on the money line AAA |
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10-17-21 | Dolphins v. Jaguars +3 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 42 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* on JACKSONVILLE After going 0-3 with Jacoby Brissett as the starting quarterback, Miami will welcome Tua Tagovailoa back on Sunday. At least it looks that way. Coach Brian Flores said “if all goes well” in Friday’s practice, Tua will get the start. This next game comes in London against the 0-5 Jaguars. The matchup coupled with a potential Tua return has to have Dolphins fans thinking this is one where they end their losing streak. But they’ve been as bad as anybody this year, getting outscored by 76 points the last four weeks. The ‘Fins do have a worse scoring differential than the Jaguars this year. Speaking of losing streaks, the Jags have dropped 20 in a row going back to Week 1 of last year. They too look at this matchup as the one where they can end the streak. They are desperate and looking at the next couple weeks, we don’t see a game as “winnable” as this one for the Jags. Maybe leaving the country is what they need! Urban Meyer is certainly looking for a “vacation” after his rough last couple of weeks. Though they did lose on the scoreboard 37-19, Jacksonville ended up outgaining Tennessee last week and put up a season-high 454 total yards. Miami should not be favored against anyone, not even the Jags. Play on JACKSONVILLE AAA |
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10-16-21 | Louisiana Tech v. UTEP +7 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 56 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTEP UTEP is 5-1, which is their best record in ages. The Miners lone loss came at Boise State. Since then they have beaten New Mexico, Old Dominion and Southern Miss while covering the spread in every game. They are home underdogs this week to Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs had last week off. A quick note about their season - all five games have been decided by seven points or less. So we wouldn’t want to be caught laying so many points with them on the road. The wins came against SE Louisiana and North Texas. The defense is giving up almost 475 yards/game. UTEP’s defense barely allows more than 300. It’s that defense that will give Dana Dimel’s team the chance to pull the upset this week. At the very least, UTEP stays within the number. They were 3-0 ATS as a double digit dog vs. Conference USA opponents last year. The spread isn’t quite that high here. But this game means a lot to UTEP as they’ve lost eight straight times to La Tech despite outgaining them in half those games. La Tech is only 1-4 ATS the previous five times they have been favored. Play on UTEP AAA |
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10-16-21 | Stars v. Bruins -160 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BOSTON Heading into Saturday, there are still four teams in the NHL who have yet to play a regular season game. One of them is Boston, who will open things up tonight by hosting by Dallas. The Stars opened their season with a 3-2 overtime win against the Rangers. They were outshot 33-26, although they did open a 2-0 lead early in the second period. The odds of Dallas starting their season with two straight wins seem remote. That’s because they are 8-22 their previous 30 games as an underdog, including 2-6 L8 on the road. They are 6-13 SU their L19 games after a win. Boston figures to be one of the league’s best teams this season, even after moving on from longtime goaltender Tuukka Rask. Linus Ullmark should be more than an adequate replacement for Rask. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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10-16-21 | Alabama v. Mississippi State OVER 57.5 | Top | 49-9 | Win | 100 | 54 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER Alabama, coming off its first loss since November 2019, heads to Starkville this week to face Mississippi State. The Crimson Tide were stunned last Saturday night down in College Station, losing to Texas A&M as 15.5 point favorites. They gave up 41 points, too many to overcome, especially after falling into a two touchdown hole at halftime. But the Tide did outgain the Aggies 522-379. They put up 38 points and have now scored 31 or more every game in 2021. They should not have a problem moving the ball or scoring on Miss State, who was off last week after they went on the road and defeated Texas A&M two weekends ago. The Bulldogs’ defense has had only one good game so far. They’ve been pretty consistent on offense, averaging 27.8 points/game. Miss State has not scored many points on the Bama defense through the years, but Mike Leach is now the head coach. Leach’s offense is averaging 429 yards/game, almost all of it coming through the air. Will Rogers is the only SEC quarterback to throw for 400 yards and two or more TDs in the same game and he’s done it twice. Off a loss, Bama will come out firing but MSU can score too. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-16-21 | Kentucky +23 v. Georgia | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KENTUCKY It’s another big time showdown in the SEC this week as #11 Kentucky takes on #1 Georgia. Both schools are 6-0 and the last unbeatens in the conference. But the oddsmakers clearly see this as a mismatch with UK being installed as a pretty massive underdog. The spread here is even larger than when Georgia hosted Arkansas two weeks ago and won 37-0. The Razorbacks were ranked #8 going into that game. But we expect the Wildcats to do better than the Hogs did in Athens. This is Georgia’s third straight game against a Top 20 opponent. That can wear on even the best teams. What’s impressive is that the Bulldogs beat both Arkansas and Auburn with their backup QB (Stetson Bennett) under center. Georgia’s defense is obviously great. But so is Kentucky’s, which allows just 17.5 points and 305 yards per contest. In what figures to be a relatively low-scoring affair, taking the big number just seems like a no-brainer. The Wildcats are probably the best offensive team that Georgia has faced. So we expect them to be the first team to score more than 14 points on the ‘Dawgs this season. That’ll be enough to cover. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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10-16-21 | Ball State v. Eastern Michigan +1.5 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -112 | 49 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 9* on EASTERN MICHIGAN Ball State’s season did not get off to a good start as they were 1-3 straight up and 0-4 against the spread through four games. But the Cardinals are coming off two straight upsets, one over Army and the other over Western Michigan. Both wins were very impressive as they won by 12 and 25 and were a double digit dog for each game. This week they are a slight favorite at Eastern Michigan. Ball State has not been favored since Week 1 when they played Western Illinois. Eastern Michigan is 4-2 with its only losses coming on the road. One was at Wisconsin and the other was at Northern Illinois and featured a long delay. We like the home team in this Saturday MAC matchup. Eastern Michigan won a low-scoring game last week, 13-12 against Miami, and should keep the BSU offense in check. There have been three games this year where the Cardinals did not score more than 13 points. Last week saw them get to 45, but it definitely helped to get four turnovers from Western Michigan. One was a fumble that BSU returned for a touchdown. Two others set the offense up on a short field. Eastern Michigan rarely has a bad game in conference play and we like them to win Saturday. Play on EASTERN MICHIGAN AAA |
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10-16-21 | Michigan State -4.5 v. Indiana | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 47 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICHIGAN STATE We will continue to take Michigan State until the oddsmakers finally “catch up” and realize just how good Mel Tucker’s team really is. Sparty is now 6-0 following the 31-13 beatdown they handed Rutgers last week. We laid the points in that one and will do the same again here against Indiana. Last week, we said “that Rutgers just doesn’t have the offensive capability to stay within a short number, even at home.” That obviously turned out to be the case. Tucker’s team has been way more explosive than anticipated, averaging 36.7 points/game. There’s been only one game where they failed to score more than 30. They have the nation’s leading rusher in Kenneth Walker III. Indiana is a disappointing 2-3 with one of the wins coming by only two points over Western Kentucky. The Hoosiers are 0-2 in the Big 10 having been outscored 58-6 by Iowa and Penn State. They also lost by 14 at home to Cincinnati. Those were all ranked teams. There’s no shame in losing to a Top 25 team, but the problem here for IU is that Sparty comes in ranked #10. QB Michael Penix Jr may also be out for the Hoosiers. Michigan State has covered six in a row as a road favorite. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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10-15-21 | San Diego State v. San Jose State UNDER 41.5 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 34 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER It’s a low total Friday night in San Jose. But when you factor in that the Spartans have scored 17 or less points in four of their last five games, all of a sudden the number doesn’t look that low. San Diego State is giving up just 16.6 points/game on the year. The Aztecs rank among the top 20 nationally in scoring defense. So that’s one side of the equation. The other is how many will SDSU score? We don’t think it will be a lot. San Jose State can play some defense too, evident by the fact they are giving up just 23.8 points/game. SJSU’s defensive coordinator is Rocky Long. Long used to be the head coach at San Diego State. Both teams are unsettled at quarterback, which is something that is worth noting. The San Diego State offense has yet to have a 200 yard passing day this season. Nor has San Jose State in its last three games. The Spartans also won’t be able to run the ball very effectively in this contest as the Aztecs are permitting only 50 rush yards/game. The Under is 5-0 in San Diego State’s previous five Friday night games. Should be a low-scoring affair on the West Coast. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-15-21 | Wild -155 v. Ducks | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA The Wild opens its 2021-22 season Friday night at The Pond. The Ducks have already played a game and were 4-1 winners here on home ice against Winnipeg. We do not see Anaheim opening with two straight underdog wins. They’ve lost to the Wild seven straight times while getting outscored 24-13. The Ducks haven’t been “good” in some time, having finished at/near the bottom of the division for three straight seasons. In addition to having the Ducks’ number, Minnesota has made the playoffs eight of the last nine years. The Wild were one of the highest scoring teams in the league last year and are a deserved favorite in this one. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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10-15-21 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 102 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Going back to their series of the regular season (vs. Oakland), the Astros have averaged 7.7 runs over their last seven games, a stretch in which the Over is 6-1. Not to be outdone, the Red Sox scored 26 runs in their three wins over the Rays in the ALDS. They’ve averaged 6.3 runs in their last seven games. These were two of the five highest scoring teams in the regular season with Houston being #1. So this year’s ALCS figures to turn into a “slugfest” in short order. For Game 1, we’ve got two starting pitchers that have been struggling. Boston’s Chris Sale has a 10.39 ERA and 1.96 WHIP in his last three starts. Sale pitched one inning in the ALDS and allowed five runs. He has a 7.37 ERA and 1.71 WHIP on the road this year. Houston’s Framber Valdez has a 5.06 ERA in his past three starts after giving up four runs in each of the last two. The Over has hit in five of Valdez’s last six starts. All signs point to plenty of runs being scored tonight. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-15-21 | Clemson v. Syracuse +13.5 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 31 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SYRACUSE Clemson laying two scores on the road? No thanks. Since winning the National Championship in Jan of ‘19, the Tigers are just 5-13 against the spread. They have failed to cover every game going back to last season’s playoff loss to Ohio State. Their three wins this year came against South Carolina State (FCS), Georgia Tech (14-8 as 27.5 point favorites) and Boston College (19-13 as 14.5 point favorites). Other than the game vs. South Carolina State, the Clemson offense has scored just 50 regulation points all season. Syracuse has already pulled one big upset here at the Carrier Dome this season. They handed Liberty their only loss back on 9/24 in what was also a Friday night game. They almost pulled another upset last week, but eventually fell in overtime to unbeaten Wake Forest. Two of the Orange’s three defeats have been by three points and none have been by greater than 10 points. Go with the underdog in this ACC matchup. Play on SYRACUSE AAA |
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10-14-21 | Dodgers +100 v. Giants | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA The two starting pitchers for Game 5 have proven themselves to be very difficult to beat. The Giants’ Logan Webb has not lost a game since May 11th. The team is 19-2 his past 21 starts. The Dodgers’ Julio Urias is 12-0 since June 21st with the team’s record being 16-2 in his past 18 starts. Both pitched well in their previous start in this LDS. So something will have to give. Might it be the bullpens that decide this game? The Dodgers’ pen seems to be fresher at this point of the series. Manager Dave Roberts has only had to make the call to the bullpen seven times in the last two games. The Giants have called upon 10 different relievers over the same time. While Los Angeles has been shutout twice in the series, they’ve still scored seven more runs than San Francisco over the course of the four games. The Giants have only scored nine runs the entire series and only five in the last three games. At the end of the day, we just think that the Dodgers are the better of the two teams. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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10-14-21 | Bucs -6.5 v. Eagles | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB Tampa Bay comes in at 4-1 SU, but just 2-3 against the spread. Philadelphia is 2-3 both SU and ATS. The Buccaneers are clearly the better team in this matchup as they are averaging 33.4 points/game while only giving up an average of 24.4. The Eagles give up a similar number of points/game (24.8) but their problem is they score far fewer (23.0). We just don’t see the Eagles having enough firepower to stay within a touchdown against a team like Tampa. The Eagles were down 15-3 to Carolina in the second half last week before a late rally earned them the upset win. They didn’t go ahead until less than three minutes were left in the game. The Bucs pretty much led start to finish against the Dolphins last week on their way to an eventual 45-17 win where they had no problem covering the double digit spread. We’d say the Bucs have faced two bad teams thus far - Miami and Atlanta. They won both games by 23 or more points. The Eagles are a bad team. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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10-14-21 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama -149 | Top | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 8* on S ALABAMA ML Georgia Southern seemed a bit lucky to earn the ATS win last week at Troy. Not only were they down 24-3 early in the second half, but the Eagles found themselves outgained 409-301 for the game. It was their fourth loss in five weeks and now they head to South Alabama for a second straight road game. The Eagles are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS the prior seven meetings vs. the Jaguars. But the last two years the games have been close, with one going to double overtime. That 2OT game took place the last time the Eagles visited Mobile, which was two years ago. South Alabama comes into tonight sporting a better record than Ga Southern. The Jaguars are 3-2, although we should point out they’ve lost back to back games. Both were two point losses, however. The Jags' last four games have all been decided by seven points or less. But they are 4-1 SU and ATS the last five times they’ve been a home favorite of three points or less. Georgia Southern is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS the last five times they have been a road underdog of three points or less. Rather than lay the points in this Thursday night Sun Belt matchup, we will simply play the favorite on the money line. We fully expect South Alabama to win this game. Play on SOUTH ALABAMA AAA |
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10-14-21 | Penguins v. Panthers -175 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 7* on FLA The Penguins surprised everyone, including us, by going into Tampa Bay and winning 6-2 on Opening Night. We think their chances of starting the season with consecutive wins as big underdogs are rather small. Give Pittsburgh credit for outworking the Lightning in the opener. But the final score was highly misleading. The last three goals all came on an empty net. Remember that the Pens are playing shorthanded. They are without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. This is going to be Florida’s first game and they should take advantage of all the absences on the Penguins’ bench (more than just Crosby and Malkin). The Panthers finished with the fourth most points in last year’s truncated regular season and were 20-5-3 on home ice. Play on FLORIDA AAA |
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10-13-21 | Blackhawks v. Avalanche OVER 6 | Top | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The season is already off to an auspicious start in Colorado where the Avalanche are without star Nathan MacKinnon and coach Jared Bednar because of COVID-19. The team is hopeful neither absence will be lengthy. That being said, there’s a reason the Avs are considered Stanley Cup favorites coming into the season. They have tremendous depth. We don’t see them having any difficulty scoring tonight when they open the season at home vs. Chicago. The Avs will definitely be motivated to score as they go up against old nemesis Marc-Andre Fleury, who now is between the pipes for the Blackhawks after coming over from Vegas in the offseason. Fleury helped Vegas to four straight wins over Colorado in last year’s playoffs, but he’s got a much weaker team in front of him now. Chicago was top 10 in goals allowed last year. Colorado led the league in scoring. Because of the bubble, these two teams did not face off last year. But the Avalanche have scored at least four times the previous four times they’ve played the Blackhawks. One concern for the Avs is in goal where they let Philipp Grubauer depart in free agency. Darcy Kuemper is the replacement and he was tied for 29th in the league in save percentage in 2020-21. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-12-21 | Penguins v. Lightning -175 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -175 | 34 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 7* on TB The big story for the season opener between the Penguins and Lightning is that Sidney Crosby is not expected to be on the ice. The Penguins’ star is still recovering from off-season wrist surgery and probably won’t be back until later this month. It’s a key absence for a Penguins team that is already outgunned in this matchup. In case you’d forgotten, the Lightning repeated as Stanley Cup Champions last June. They bring back the entire foundation of the two championship teams and unlike last year, Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov should be around the entire regular season. They are one of the favorites to win it all again this year, rightfully so, and if they do it they’d pull off the first three-peat since the Islanders won four in a row 40 years ago. Minus Crosby and Evgeni Malkin (also injured), the Penguins have little chance here. They have lost seven of the last nine times they’ve played the Lightning while dropping all five here in Tampa. All but one loss came in regulation time. Even if Crosby miraculously suits up, the Pens won’t win here. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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10-12-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette OVER 57 | Top | 13-41 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Over the next two weeks, Appalachian State will face the other two top Sun Belt teams. Next week they’ve got undefeated Coastal Carolina at home. But tonight the Mountaineers must travel to face Louisiana. Both teams are 4-1 SU on the season with a loss to a Power 5 school. App State lost by two at Miami while Louisiana got beat by Texas 38-18. The last three ASU games have all gone Over with them averaging 40 points and 537 yards per contest. Louisiana is 4-1 Under on the year, but has averaged 38 points in two home games. Defensively, the Ragin Cajuns do struggle to stop the run. They are allowing 171 yards/game on the ground. That’s a problem going against ASU, a team that averages almost 200 yards rushing/game. The road team is probably going to put a lot of points on the board here. We know that Louisiana has gone over 28 points in just one game this season, but if they were to hit that number tonight, the Over would be a virtual lock. We think it’s very possible as the Over is 4-0 the previous four times ULL has been a home underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-12-21 | Astros v. White Sox -110 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CWS The White Sox were able to stave off elimination with a 12-6 win on Monday. Then their season was extended another day when Mother Nature came calling on Tuesday. The rainout pushed Game 4 back to today and we think the situation favors the home team. Certainly, there’s no denying that the White Sox prefer to be at home. They are 54-28 at Guaranteed Rate Field as opposed to 40-43 on the road. It will be Carlos Rodon starting today’s game for the home team. Rodon was probably Chicago’s best starter in the regular season. He has battled injuries, including a sore arm down the stretch. But he threw five shutout innings in his last regular season start and brings a 2.37 ERA and 0.96 WHIP into the postseason. Houston is going with Lance McCullers Jr, who won Game 1. This is a change from Jose Urquidy, who was set to go yesterday before the rain said no. With the White Sox accusing the Astros of stealing signs, there’s some real “bad blood” between the two teams. But we think it boils down to the White Sox homefield advantage and being faced with elimination. The Astros are 0-5 in their last five road games. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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10-11-21 | Colts +7.5 v. Ravens | Top | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IND Home teams are 4-0 ATS so far on Monday Night Football. But this is kind of a big number that the Ravens are laying this week. The Colts being 1-3 shouldn’t be that surprising. They’ve been the underdog in all four games. Baltimore has been an underdog twice, so they should be celebrating a 3-1 record to this point. But two of their wins have come by a total of three points. That means they could easily be 1-3, just like the Colts, coming into tonight. Last week was Baltimore’s best performance of the year but it came against a Denver team that was down to its backup QB. Indianapolis also beat a backup QB last week for its first win. Carson Wentz gets a lot of criticism, but hasn’t really played all that badly. He’s thrown five touchdowns and only one interception. The Ravens are 0-2 ATS when favored this year and those two games saw them lose to the Raiders and barely defeat the winless Lions. It seems like they may be a little preoccupied with setting a new NFL record for most consecutive games with 100 or more yards rushing. They can make it 44 straight tonight, which would be the new record. But they haven’t been that effective in running the ball the past two games. Maybe a stubbornness to run keeps this game close? Indy is 10-2 ATS the past 12 meetings with the Ravens and 6-1 here in Baltimore. This is the most points they’ve gotten in any game all year. Play on INDIANAPOLIS AAA |
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10-11-21 | Brewers +100 v. Braves | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Atlanta was able to even this series up with a 3-0 win in Game 2. We did not have a play on that game. We did cash Milwaukee in Game 1 though. Believe it or not, we are even more apt to take the Brewers now that the series has moved to Atlanta. The Brewers were 50-31 on the road in the regular season. That’s a better record than they have at home. Not only does the team score more when it’s on the road, but they also give up far less runs. No team allowed fewer runs on the road than Milwaukee did during the regular season. They gave up just 3.4 per game while scoring 4.8 themselves. Freddy Peralta will be the starter for Game 3. He comes in with a 18-9 TSR, 2.85 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Peralta faced the Braves one time this year and he kept them scoreless for six innings. He allowed only two hits in the outing. The Braves are countering with Ian Anderson, who is 4-0 in his last six starts. But there were two different starts where Anderson allowed four runs and he’s allowed seven home runs in the last five starts. The Braves are only 42-38 at home. Throw in the fact the Brewers are 41-25 in day games and we really like the road team in this one. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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10-10-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -120 | 35 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC The sky was falling in Kansas City last week. The Chiefs were 1-2 with a defense that seemingly couldn’t stop anybody. That defense remains a question mark, but the offense scored a touchdown on all but one possession last week and the Chiefs beat the Eagles 42-30. Patrick Mahomes threw five touchdown passes. The team has scored 33 points in three of its four games. It’s a big test this week at home vs. Buffalo in the Sunday Night game. But keep two things in mind. One is that the Chiefs were 2-0 vs. the Bills last year. The second win came in the AFC Championship Game. The Bills, who are obviously thinking revenge, have looked as good as any team in the league the last three weeks. But the second thing to keep in mind is just how rare it is to get Mahomes as this short of a favorite. He is 9-1-1 ATS in his career when not favored by more than a field goal. Depending where the line closes, this could be the first time at home in his career that he’s not favored by at least three points. As impressive as the Bills have looked in those last three games, it’s been all bad teams they’ve played. We like the Chiefs. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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10-10-21 | Astros v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Houston is the highest scoring team in the majors. They average 5.4 runs/game. In the first two games of this series, they scored 6 and 9 runs. They’ve now scored six or more runs in five straight games going back to the final regular season series. If you’re looking for any sort of decrease in offensive production now that the Astros are on the road, you better think again. They average the same number of runs/game on the road as they do at home. But it is going to take quite a few runs to win tonight as Chicago puts up an average of 5.1 runs/game at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox had 11 hits in Game 2, but all were singles. They will face Luis Garcia here in Game 3. Garcia’s ERA is nearly two full points higher on the road than it is at home. So there is still hope for Chicago as they look to avoid being swept. But we are concerned that Dylan Cease was knocked around by the Astros earlier this year. He gave up seven runs to them back in June. With concerns about both starting pitchers, it seems quite probable that each team can score five runs tonight. Taking the Over seems like the logical move here. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-10-21 | Giants +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-44 | Loss | -107 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NYG Dallas is the only 4-0 ATS team. But we know all about how the Giants do when priced as road underdogs. They are 18-4 against the spread in the role since 2018. QB Jones is 10-2 ATS as a road dog, even though he’s won just three of those games straight up. This just has the feel of a close NFC East game. The Cowboys did cover as short favorites in each of the last two games. But they are still only 3-6 ATS as favorites since the start of last season, including 2-5 at home. Each of the Giants' previous three games have been decided by six points or fewer. Their last two losses were by one and four points. We were impressed by Jones last week. He had his first 400 yard day as a pro and that was against a good Saints defense. In two road games, the Giants’ offense has averaged 28 points. That should be enough to at least cover this week. The G-men’s reputation as a road underdog speaks for itself. Play on NY GIANTS AAA |
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10-10-21 | Eagles v. Panthers OVER 45.5 | Top | 21-18 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER The Eagles’ defense has been terrible the past two weeks. Some of that has to do with losing defensive end Brandon Graham to a season ending ACL injury. Some of it has to do with facing the Cowboys and Chiefs. Still, there’s no excuse for giving up 41+ points in back to back games. Philadelphia is 31st in the league right now at stopping the run, so even without Christian McCaffery they can move the ball. The 3-1 Panthers have averaged 26 points/game the last three weeks and should have no problem achieving that average again. But their defense was exposed a bit last week as they too got a taste of the Cowboys. Carolina allowed 36 points against Dallas, which was more than they allowed the first three weeks when they faced the Jets, Saints and Texans. We think the Eagles are going to be able to do something closer to what the Cowboys did than the other three teams. Jalen Hurts is coming off a career day where he threw for 387 yards. Twice the Eagles have hit 30 points this year and only once have they been held under 21. The Over is 33-16 in Philadelphia’s past 49 road games and is 21-9 L30 when they are a road dog. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-10-21 | Jets v. Falcons -2.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA They gave the game away last week, but we cannot see Atlanta losing again. Not to a Jets team that scored more points last week than they did in the first three games combined. Maybe heading across the Atlantic Ocean is what the Falcons need right now. They are 1-3 and really in need of a win. Two weeks ago, we said the Falcons would win and they did - beating the Giants 17-14. The Jets beat Tennessee in overtime last week, but it can’t be forgotten how poorly they looked in the first three games. Atlanta should have made it two wins in a row last week, but blew a late lead to Washington at home. They allowed the game-winning touchdown in the final minute of regulation. The Falcons should get to five wins this year. This is one of the games their fanbase had to have circled as a win. With Calvin Ridley not making the trip, expect to see a healthy dose of Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson. We trust Matt Ryan more than we do Jets rookie Zach Wilson. This is not a true road game, but the Jets are 2-8 ATS L10 games away from home. Favorites are 17-11 ATS in these London games. The Falcons need this one badly. Play on ATLANTA AAA |