Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-12-23 | Minnesota United v. Houston Dynamo -105 | 3-0 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
8* Houston Dynamo (DESTRUCTION) After a 2-2 draw here with Sporting KC, Houston hasn't won in three straight MLS contests, but we're expecting that short run of futility to come to an end here this evening in this favorable home matchup. The Dynamo play wiht revenge after a 1-0 loss at Minnesota back on May 17th, and note that Houston is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge a road loss vs. an opponent. Minnesota is poor on the road ans off the 4-1 home loss to lowly Austin. Look for the more motivated and revenge-minded home side to lay everything on the line and deliver here at home; lay the price, the play is Houston! AAA Sports |
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07-11-23 | Mercury +17.5 v. Aces | Top | 72-98 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
10* Mercury (ASSASSIN) Outright win?! Of course not. But we look for the 17-2 Aces to take the foot off the gas down the stretch, letting the revenge-minded 4-14 Mercury to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Phoenix lost 99-79 at home as a 19-point underdog to Las Vegas back in June, but note that the Mercury are 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. Las Vegas though gets caught "looking ahead" to its final game of the first half at LA tomorrow night, before being a featured team in the All-Star activities. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points, the play is Phoenix! AAA Sports |
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07-09-23 | Montreal v. BC OVER 45.5 | Top | 19-35 | Win | 100 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
10* Als/Lions OVER (NON-CONF TOY) Montreal is 2-1. BC is 3-1. Each team is the best in its repsective conference on the defensive side of the ball. These teams are similar in many respects, including that they each enter Week 5 off their first loss of the season. Montreal fell 17-3 at home to Winnipeg, while BC fell flat in Toronto by a score of 45-24. The Als though have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after a SU/ATS home loss in which they were held to 3 or fewer points in. BC's defense may have finally been exposed last week, but its offense continues to fire on all cylinders. We're expecting a shootout; this number is low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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07-09-23 | Mystics v. Sun UNDER 159 | Top | 84-92 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
10* UNDER Mystics/Suns (EAST-CONF TOM) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to much more of a defensive affair here between these Eastern-Conference opponents. Washington is 10-7 and third in the East after beating Indiana 96-88 as a 1-point dog last time out, while Connecticut is 13-5 and No. 2 in the East after a 93-73 win at home over Seattle earlier in the week. Note though that they Mystics play with revenge here after an 88-81 home loss to the Sun back in May, and that's big time significant for us to take note of here, as Washington has seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. All signs point to a much more defensive affair here in the rematch; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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07-09-23 | Orioles v. Twins -148 | Top | 15-2 | Loss | -148 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
10* Twins (ASSASSIN) After dropping the first two games of this series, we fully expect the Twins to bounce back in the finale. The Orioles have now won four straight, but with the All Star break up this week, we're finally expecting them to get caught looking ahead and come in complacent here. Note though that the Twins are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a fav vs. an opponent. Kyle Gibson (8-6, 4.73 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) has been decent for Baltimore, but we're still giving the big nod to Joe Ryan (8-5, 3.42 ERA, 0.90 WHIP), especially here at home. Lay the price with confidence, the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports |
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07-08-23 | New York City FC v. Columbus | Top | 1-1 | Win | 286 | 27 h 32 m | Show |
10* DRAW NYC/CC (VALUE PLAY) Two really good teams and we think there's going to be a classic "war of attrition," meaning that the DRAW offers tremendous value to cash here. Columbus is 10-6 and it hasn't lost in MLS action in seven games, most recently drawing 2-2 at Miami. New York City FC hasn't lost in MLS in seven games either, "drawing" six of those, including last time out in a 1-1 effort vs. Charlotte FC. As the title of this play implies, this one is all about the "value;" the play is the DRAW. AAA Sports |
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07-08-23 | Braves v. Rays +131 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
10* Rays (ASSASSIN) Enough is enough! Tampa has now lost six straight after dropping the opener here to the Braves by a score of 2-1 yesterday. Despite that though, note that TB is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Rays are still also 9-5 in their last 14 after five or more straight losses in a row. Spencer Strider is 10-2 with a 3.66 ERA for the Braves, while Taj Bradley is 5-4 with a 5.27 ERA for the Rays. Strider's numbers are better, but Bradley at home here is the correct call in our opinion, considering how desperate TB overall is right now. Winning leads to complacency, and we're expecting ATL to finally take a collective step back this afternoon; lay the price, th eplay is Tampa Bay! AAA Sports |
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07-08-23 | Ottawa v. Hamilton OVER 44 | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
10* OVER Ottawa/Hamilton (EAST-CONF TOW) Winning can at times lead to complacency, and losing can breed motivation. The second part of that is true for both of these teams coming into Week 5, as Ottawa is 1-2 and Hamilton is 0-3. The Ti-Cats though have played some really good teams to open the season, and while they're 0-3, we're expecting a much more efficient offensive game here at home vs. this suspect Ottawa secondary (also note that the Ti-Cats have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 after three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row.) This marks the first of three games between the teams. Off their first win of the season (26-7) over Edmonton last week, there's no reason not to think that the Redblacks also can't build off that performance; this number is low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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07-07-23 | Calgary v. Winnipeg OVER 46.5 | Top | 11-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
10* OVER Stamps/Bombers (WEST-CONF TOW) We're expecting a shootout here. Calgary is 1-2 and Winnipeg is 3-1. The Stamps finally got their offense working in last week's 29-26 OT home loss to the Riders, and we're expecting that offensive momentum to get carried over here. Winnipeg saw its first two games go "over" the number, but the last two have gone well "under." But that's only because the Bombers were matched up against the league's two best defenses the last two weeks. Now back at home and facing this suspect Calgary secondary, we're anticipating a wide-open shootout here; a great situational play on the "over!" AAA Sports |
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07-07-23 | Calgary +7.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 11-24 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
10* Calgary (WEST-CONF GOW) Calgary is 1-2 and is the "hungrier" dog in this fight. It's coming out of its bye week as well, and we expect that to play a big role in the Stampeders, at the very least, earning a hard earned "cover" with the large amount of points they've been afforded. To say this is a "revenge" spot as well would be an understatement, as Winnipeg took all three meetings a year ago. Calgary's lone win this year has come on the road, and we're expecting another big effort here on Saturday night as well. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points, the play is the Stampeders! AAA Sports |
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07-07-23 | Fever +4 v. Mystics | Top | 88-96 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
10* Fever (ASSASSIN) We feel these teams are evenly matched and in a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points. Indiana is just 5-12. It's coming in off five straight SU losses, and three straight ATS losses. Those are both significant streaks of futility to take note of here though, as Indiana is 3-1 ATS in its last four after five or more SU losses in a row and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after three or more straight ATS setbacks in row. Washington is 9-7, but it's faltered of late, losing two in a row SU and ATS. With a game at the Eastern Conference leading Sun on Wednesday, this is a potential "look ahead" spot for the home side as well. An outright win would not shock us, but the official call is to grab as many points as you can; the play is Indiana! AAA Sports |
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07-07-23 | Braves v. Rays -110 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
10* Rays (IL GOW) Two really good teams, but one enters much "hungrier" than the other. The Rays look to bounce back here after an uncharacteristic five straight losses in a row (note though that TB is 7-2 in its last nine after five or more straight losses in a row.) ATL is rolling, it enters off a 2-1 showing at Cleveland. These starters are evenly matched, as the Braves hand the ball to Charlie Morton (8-6, 3.57 ERA), while the home side counters with Tyler Glasnow (2-2, 4.50.) These guys are a "wash," but at this price and considering the circumstances, the sharp move for sure is to grab the home side and indeed expect a big bounce-back effort here after the five-game slide; lay the short price, the play is Tampa Bay! AAA Sports |
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07-06-23 | Orioles -115 v. Yankees | Top | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
10* Orioles (ASSASSIN) Baltimore lost the first two games of this series, but it bounced back with a 6-3 victory yesterday and we're expecting a similar outcome here as well. The botto line here is that this is a starting pitching matchup that favors Baltimore and that's going to be more than enough to tip the scales in its favor today. The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Bradish, who is 4-4 with a 3.58 ERA, while the home side counters with Luis Severino, who is just 1-3 with a 6.30 ERA. Great value on the superior starter; the play is Baltimore! AAA Sports |
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07-05-23 | Wings +15.5 v. Aces | Top | 82-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
10* Wings (BLOOD-BATH) This is the opener of a home and home set between the clubs, and while we're not calling for an outright titanic upset here or anything, we do feel that this is a few too many points to be giving up to the Wings. Las Vegas is now 15-1 after its 102-84 win over Connecticut here at home last time out, avenging its only loss of the season so far. We expect the home side to come out a bit complacent here after that big win. Dallas is 8-8 and off B2B SU/ATS victories and we're looking for that positive momentum to get carried over here; no outright, but closer than expected; grab the points, the play is Dallas! AAA Sports |
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07-05-23 | Mariners v. Giants -148 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
8* Giants (MISMATCH) We like San Francisco to finally bounce back here after four straight losses, including the first two in this series (note that San Fran is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent.) It's a bullpen game for the Mariners, meaing that Alex Cobb (5-3, 3.12 ERA), has a big advantage here. And those two big factors working in favor of the home side is more than enough to tip the scales in their direction and it makes it so that we have no issues at all in laying what we still feel is a very reasonable mid-aized price; the play is San Francisco! AAA Sports |
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07-05-23 | Orioles -117 v. Yankees | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* Orioles (AL EAST GOW) After opening this series with two straight losses, we like the Orioles to bounce back here in the third game of this four-game series (note that Baltimore is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge back-to-back road losses against an opponent.) We just love this starting pitching matchup for Baltimore more than anything, as it hands the ball to Deam Kremer, who is a battle-tested 8-4 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. He definitely gets the nod over Randy Vasquez (1-1, 1.74 ERA), who makes his third career start here afte rgetting called up from Triple-A on Wednesday. We look for the Orioles to get back on track at the plate in this favorable matchup; lay the short price, the play is Baltimore! AAA Sports |
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07-04-23 | Los Angeles FC +100 v. LA Galaxy | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
10* LAFC (MLS GOW) This is the 20th installment of "El Trafico" at the Rose Bowl between the clubs. LAFC is 9-5 now off a 2-0 loss at Dallas (note though that it's 3-1 in its last four off a shutout loss.) The Galaxy enter off their fourth-straight "draw," 2-2 at San Jose. The home side is just 3-9 in MLS action. So being unbeaten in four straight is decent, but Vanney's side is still in the cellar. LAFC has had its up and downs this year, but it's still in second in the Western Conference. The Galaxy have taken a share of the spoils over the last few weeks, but we expect that run of attrition to end here against their bitter rival; the play is LAFC! AAA Sports |
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07-04-23 | Blue Jays v. White Sox +1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
10* White Sox runline (ASSASSIN) Toronto shouldn't be favored here just because it's win/loss record is better overall. The Jays are just 22-22 on the road as well. They come in with zero momentum after getting swept at home by the Red Sox. The White Sox lost two of three at Oakland over the weekend, but they bounced back with an 8-7 win in the finale. Chris Bassitt is 8-5 with a 4.06 ERA for Toronto, while Lucas Giolito is 6-5 with a 3.53 ERA for the White Sox. Giolito gets the slight nod here and in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, the play is indeed on Chicago on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-04-23 | Cardinals v. Marlins -1.5 | 2-15 | Win | 122 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
8* Marlins runline (SPECIAL) No need to overanlayze this one. St. Louis is terrible this year, just 35-49 overall, including only 18-24 on the road. Miami is decent this season, 49-37 overall, including 26-16 at home. We think the Fish will not only win this game, but do so in blowout fashion. The bottom line is that this is a complete starting pitching mismatch: the Cards go with Adam Wainwright (3-3, 7.45 ERA), while the home side counters with Jesus Luzardo (6-5, 3.53.) Lay the 1.5 runs for the return; the play is Miami on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-03-23 | Braves -151 v. Guardians | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
10* Braves FIRST FIVE INNINGS (ASSASSIN) The Braves are ridiculously hot, and we foresee that surge lasting into the All Star break, which is just around the corner. ATL has won 16 of its last 17 games and is going for a ninth straight win here. Instead of playing the entire game though for this selection, I'm banking on Braves' starter Bryce Elder to win the first five innings. He's 6-1 with a 2.44 ERA overall and 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA over his last three starts. Cleveland returns home off a 4-2 road trip, but the Guardians are overmatched on the mound tonight by handing the ball to Gavin Williams, who is 0-0 with a 2.84 ERA. His third major league start is obviously a difficult one. If you can't get the Braves FIRST FIVE innings, we also love for the entire Game. So either way, ATL for first five, or for the entire game to win outright here; the play is indeed on the Braves! AAA Sports |
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07-03-23 | BC v. Toronto +3.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
10* Argos (BLOOD-BATH) The Lions are 3-0 and the Argos are 2-0. Each had some new faces on both sids of the ball coming into the season, but the new pieces have filled the void immediately, as chemistry for both sides is "firing on all cylinders." But off a 30-6 win at IG Field last week, we're finally expecting the road-weary Lions to show some "cracks in the armor" vs. the defending Grey Cup champions. THe Argos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight vs. teams with winning records and while the outright win is clearly not out of the question, in the end we'll recommend to grab as many points as you can; the play is Toronto! AAA Sports |
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07-03-23 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9 | 12-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
8* OVER Astros/Rangers (SLUG-FEST) These teams have been playing to some lower-scoring games of late, but we're definitely expecting that to change quick fast and hurry this afternoon. The total has gone "under" in the first three games of this four game series. So far Houston is 2-1. Note though that the Rangers have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. These starters have been great, but regression is imminent in our opinion. The visitors go with Christian Javier, who is 7-1 with a 3.72 ERA, while the home side counters with Martin Perez, who is 7-3 with a 4.28 ERA. This is just a case of these guys being in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. Everything points to an explosive finish to this four-game series; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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07-02-23 | Diamondbacks v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
10* OVER D-Backs/Angels (ASSASSIN) Two really good starters going head-to-head here, but we're still predicting this one to become a classic "slug-fest." Arizona has seen the total go UNDER in four straight now after taking the first two games of this three-game series. That includes yesterday's 3-1 victory. Note though that LA has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses vs. an opponent. As mentioned, nothing but respect here for both starters, as Zac Gallen is 10-2 with a 3.02 ERA for Arizaon, while Reid Detmers is 1-5 with a 3.77 ERA for the Angels. This is just a case of each being in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time." This number is low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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07-02-23 | Sparks v. Dream UNDER 167.5 | Top | 84-112 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
10* UNDER Sparks/Dream (TOTAL BLOOD-BATH) Here's a great situational play, as we're expecting a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. LA has seen the total go "over" in two of its last three after back-to-back losses at Chicago this week. Atlanta has seen the total go "over" in three straight after a 94-89 win over Washington, but note that the Dream have seen the total go "under" in five of their last seven after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. All signs point to a very tight, defensive lower-scoring "under!" AAA Sports |
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07-02-23 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
8* Jays runline (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH) After back-to-back losses to open this series, including on Canada Day on Saturday, we're expecting the Jays to dig deep and not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion. And that then makes the "runline" option the savvy move, laying the 1.5 runs for the "near pick em" price. Note that Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent. Two good starters, but we'll give the nod to the Jays' ace at home here. Boston goes with Garrett Whitlock, who is 4-3 with a 5.15 ERA, while Toronto goes with Kevin Gausman, who is 7-4 with a 3.01 ERA. Lay the 1.5 runs, the play is Toronto on the runline. AAA Sports |
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07-01-23 | Houston Dynamo v. Seattle Sounders FC -115 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 34 h 58 m | Show |
10* Seattle (MLS WEST-CONF GOW) Thees teams are No. 3 and No. 4 in the West, and at this point of the season, we can't understate how important we feel that the home field advantage will be. When these teams played in Houston back on May 13th, Seattle scored the 1-0 victory as a +204 underdog. Now here at home, we think the Sounders get back on track after going winless in their last five in MLS action (note though that the Sounders are also 3-1 in their last four after five or more straight losses in a row.) Houston doesn't travel well; lay the price, the play is Seattle! AAA Sports |
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07-01-23 | New England v. FC Cincinnati +110 | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
10* FC Cincinnati (EAST-CONF GOW) This is the reverse-fixture after these teams tied 1-1 in New England back in April. The Revolution are 10-3, but we expect them to struggle here in this extremely difficult road venue. FC Cincinnati is 13-2, but off a 3-0 road loss at DC as a +300 dog, we absolutely expect a big response here, as clearly the team was caught looking ahead. Note though that FC Cincinnati is 3-1 in its last four after getting shutout in a loss in its previous outing. Ultimately we feel that the Revs had their chance to score a win against Cincinnati at home, and they failed. Great price on a great team, the play is indeed on FC Cincinnati. AAA Sports |
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07-01-23 | Rays v. Mariners +1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
8* Mariners runline (SPECIAL) After three straight losses, including a humbling 15-4 beatdown in the opener of this series here last night, we like the Mariners to dig deep and find a way to deliver. That said, in a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Note that Seattle is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. Tyler Glasnow is 2-1 with a 4.45 ERA for the Rays, but we still give the battle-tested George Kirby the nod in this one, sitting at 6-7 with a 3.26 ERA. Lay the price and grab Seattle on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-01-23 | Winnipeg v. Montreal +6 | Top | 17-3 | Loss | -107 | 31 h 2 m | Show |
10* Alouettes (NON-CONF GOY) Winnipeg is 2-1, but it's coming off a poor 30-6 beatdown loss as a six-point favorite at home to BC and we believe it'll stumble again here on the road. Montreal is no push over, it enters at 2-0 after destroying Hamilton 38-12 last weekend. In all, Montreal has allowed just 24 points over two games, its defense is second only to the Lions. We actually feel that this Montreal defense is very comparable to BC's and the Lions have given the Als the "blue-print" on how to counter this dynamic Bombers' offense. While the outright win is in fact possible in our estimation, our official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is Montreal! AAA Sports |
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07-01-23 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
10* OVER Red Sox/Jays (ASSASSIN) Although both teams have been playing to lower-scoring affairs of late, we look for this Saturday afternoon total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later. Toronto has seen the total go "under" in four straight now after yesterday's 5-0 series opening loss here. Note though that the Jays have seen the total go "over" the number in five of their last six in trying to avenge a shutout home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Boston has seen the total go "under" in three straight, but note that the Red Sox have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Kutter Crawford is 2-4 with a 4.01 ERA for the Red Sox, while Yusei Kikuchi is 7-2 with a 3.75 ERA for the Jays. Decent starters, but this is just a case of each being in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time," because the overall situation, combined with the above listed trends all point to this one being an offensive slug-fest; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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06-30-23 | Rays -130 v. Mariners | Top | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
10* Rays (BLOOD-BATH) The Rays are 56-28, including 22-18 on the road, while Seattle is 38-41 this year, including 22-19 at home. Tampa just took two of three at Arizona, cooling off a red hot Arizona side, and at this price, we absolutely think the surging Rays are worth the price of admission. Bryce Miller is a bright spot for the Mariners, who just lost two of three here at home to lowly Washington this week, as he's 5-3 with a 3.88 ERA. But Shane McClanahan has been a step above, entering at 11-1 with a 2.23 ERA. It's going to be a super hot sunny night in the PNW and we like the Rays to take advantage. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
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06-30-23 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
10* D-Backs runline (BOB) In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Two teams in different leagues, but each has had a similar trajectory to this point. Each just went 1-2 in their respective series this week. These starters are pretty evenly matched, as Arizona turns to Tommy Henry, who is 4-1 with a 4.31 ERA, while the home side counters with Griffin Canning, who is 6-2 with a 3.99 ERA. Good value here, lay the price and grab the visitors on the runline. AAA Sports |
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06-30-23 | Tigers -113 v. Rockies | 5-8 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
8* Detroit (BLOWOUT) Both teams have struggled this year, but Detroit is playing better right now. The Tigers are 35-45, while the Rockies are 32-51. Detroit just went 2-2 in Texas, while Colorado went 1-2 here at home vs. the Dodgers. But this is a starting pitching matchup that favors Detroit, and that's going to be enough to tip the scales in the Tigers' favor, as despite his 2-5 win/loss record, Michael Lorenzen owns a highly respectable 3.97 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Alex Gomber is terrible, he's 5-7 with a 7.01 ERA for the Rockies. Great value here on Detroit. AAA Sports |
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06-30-23 | Sparks +3 v. Sky | Top | 78-86 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* Sparks (U OF THE U) Revenge. It's a powerful motivating factor that teams, and handicappers both utilize. It's 100% the basis behind this play. LA had won two straight before falling 80-63 here two nights ago as a 2.5-point underdog. Note though that the Sparks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. Grab the points, the play is indeed on LA. AAA Sports |
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06-30-23 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
10* Red Sox (ASSASSIN) This is a big mid-season AL East series. These teams are lagging behind the Rays, but anything is possible at this point of the season. We see this game being decided late, or even in extras, therefore we're going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Red Sox have lost five straight now, but note that they're 8-3 in their last 11 after five or more straight losses in a row. These starters are evenly matched, as James Paxton (3-1, 3.19 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while the home side counters with Jose Berrios (8-5, 3.60.) Everything points to a tight battle, the play is Boston on the runline option. AAA Sports |
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06-29-23 | Lynx +2 v. Storm | Top | 99-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
10* Lynx (BLOOD-BATH) Are we missing something here? Minnesota may be 5-9, but it comes in off a 104-93 win here as a four-point favorite just two nights ago. Now the Lynx are getting points in the re-match. Seattle is just 4-10 overall this year. This is just a bad matchup for the Storm and while the outright is obviously possible, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports |
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06-29-23 | Brewers v. Mets OVER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
10* OVER Brewers/Mets (ASSASSIN) The Brewers have played to three straight "unders" after yesterday's 5-2 win. This is the fourth game of a four-game series between the clubs and the Brewers are 2-1 so far. Note that the Mets though have seen the total go "over" the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Mets have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row as well. Two decent starters, but this is just a case of Adrian Houser (2-2, 4.02 ERA) and Max Scherzer (7-2, 3.95) being in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time." The overall situation points to this total sailing "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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06-29-23 | Padres -179 v. Pirates | 4-5 | Loss | -179 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
8* Padres (BLOWOUT) We're going to lay the price with confidence here as we like Joe Musgrove to get his team back into the winner's circle after four straight losses, including the first 2 in this series (note though that the Padres are 7-2 in their last 9 in trying to avenge two or more straight losses as a favorite vs. an opponent.) Pittsburgh is hit or miss this year. It went on a big run, but it's still five games under .500. Musgrove is 6-2 with a 3.88 ERA for the Padres, while Luis Ortiz is 2-3 with a 3.74 ERA for the Pirates. We give the sliight nod to Musgrove in this matchup, and combined with the situational factors, and the above ATS trends, we're laying the price and expecting a decisive victory; the play is San Diego! AAA Sports |
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06-28-23 | Reds v. Orioles -160 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
10* Orioles (ASSASSIN) We had a play on Baltimore yesterday and it unfortunatley came up short. We also played the Orioles in the opener of this three-game series. And now here we are back on them once again in the finale, for sure laying this price in what we feel is a mismatch on the mound for these starting pitchers. Luke Weaver (1-2, 6.86 ERA) is "hot garbage" for the Reds, while Kyle Gibson (8-5, 4.30) has been consistent for Baltimore. This line could/should in fact be much larger in our estimation; the play is Baltimore! AAA Sports |
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06-28-23 | Dream +5 v. Mystics | Top | 86-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
10* Dream (BOB) Outright win? Possibly, but in the opener of this home-and-home set, we're grabbing the points and expecting an all-out war until the end. ATL has lost two straight, both SU and ATS. Washington may have covered in four straight, but it's three-game win streak was snapped last time out in a heart-breaking 89-88 OT loss at New York. We say this sets up as a classic "letdown" spot here now. While the outright win isn't 100% entirely out of the question, everything points to this one coming "right down to the wire." Grab the point,s the play is Atlanta! AAA Sports |
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06-28-23 | Twins +1.5 v. Braves | 0-3 | Loss | -134 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT On the Twins RUNLINE. We feel this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the Twins to bounce back in the finale of this three-game series with, at the very least, a solid ATS cover on the runline option. Note that Minnesota is 3-1 in its last four in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. Despite being 1-4 with a 6.86 ERA, we still Kenta Maeda the nod over his counterpart Kolby Allard, who makes his season debut here tonight. Maeda actually returned from a two-month injury last Friday and looked dominant, going five scoreless vs. the Tigers (8 K's.) In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're grabbing the hungry visiting side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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06-27-23 | White Sox v. Angels OVER 8 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
10* OVER White Sox/Angels (TOTAL BOB) Both sides have been playing to some lower-scoring affairs of late, but all signs point to this total finally eclipsing the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The Angels are just 2-4 in their last six, but they managed the 2-1 win here last night in the opener of this series. They've seen the total go "under" in two straight. Chicago is just 2-3 in its last five after yesterday's setback. The White Sox have seen the total go "under" in two straight. LA hands the ball to ace Shoehei Ohtani, who is 6-3 with a 3.13 ERA, while the visitors counter with Michael Kopech, who is 3-6 with a 4.06 ERA. This is a case of these guys being in the wrong place at the wrong time; this number is low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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06-27-23 | Storm v. Lynx OVER 161.5 | Top | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
10* OVER Storm/Lynx (TOW) Everything points to a shootout here in Minnesota on Tuesday in my opinion. Seattle snapped a two-game slide with an impressive 97-74 win over Phoenix last time and there's no reason not to believe the team can't keep that momentum rolling here. Minnesota has seen the total go "under" in four straight, and it's off an 89-68 loss to Connecticut last time out. Note though that Minnesota has still seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Seattle is 4-9, while Minnesota is 4-9 as well. These are two teams in dire need of a victory and we're expecting a faster-paced affair here. All in all, this O/U line is too low; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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06-27-23 | Reds v. Orioles -136 | 3-1 | Loss | -136 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Orioles. We had a play on the Orioles yesterday, and we feel they once again offer terrific value here at home to keep the good times rolling. After an incredible win streak, the Reds have now lost three straight. The slide continues here in Baltimore vs. Tyler Wells, who is 6-3 with a 3.22 ERA. The visitors counter with Andrew Abbot, who is an unrealistic 3-0 with 1.14 ERA for the Reds. These sparkling numbers are not sustainable any longer in our opinion and regression is imminent. Take Wells here at this price to deliver another solid performance; the play is Baltimore! AAA Sports |
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06-26-23 | Reds v. Orioles -128 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* Orioles (NON-CONF GOW) The Reds' big surge is now over after back-to-back 7-6 loss at home to Atlanta over the weekend. We say Cincinnati's spiral back down into mediocrity continues here this weekend in this difficult road matchup. Baltimore took two of three from the Mariners here over the weekend and we can expect that momentum to get carried over. Brandon Williamson is 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA for the Reds, while Cole Irvin is 1-3 with a 7.71 ERA for the Orioles. For arguments sake, let's classify these starters as a "wash." At this price here at home, we'll back Irvin to get the better of his younger counterpart though; lay the price, the play is Baltimore! AAA Sports |
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06-25-23 | Toronto v. Edmonton Elks +6.5 | Top | 43-31 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
10* Edmonton (BEST OF BEST) With a whopping 70% of the public money and wagers on Toronto, we're going full on contrarian here and going the other way with the home side. Toronto was a home dog to Hamilton in its season opener last weekend, but the Argos cruised to the 32-14 outright win. However, now hitting the road to face this desperate Elks side, I believe the visitors will have their hands full in this one. CHad Kelly looked decent at home for the Argos, but we still ahve to see how he'll do on the road. Off a 22-0 loss at BC (which doesn't look nearly as terrible now after the Lions crushed Winnipeg 30-6 on the road here in Week 3), we're expecting the home side to come out fired up here and to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire; no outright upset, but grab the points because the play is the Elks! AAA Sports |
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06-25-23 | Diamondbacks v. Giants UNDER 9 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
10* UNDER D-Backs/Giants (ASSASSIN) The first two games of this series flew "over" the number, but we're anticipating a much lower-scoring affair here on Saturday afternoon finally. Ryne Nelson is 3-4 with a 5.31 ERA for Arizona, but note that the D-Backs have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight road losses against an opponent. Anthony DeSclfani is 4-6 with a 4.38 ERA for the Giants and we're expecting these battle-tested starters to duel deep into the latter frames; as a result, the play is indeed on the "under!" AAA Sports |
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06-25-23 | Sky +5.5 v. Sun | Top | 72-96 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
10* Chicago (CRUSHER) With nearly 85% of the money and wagers on Connecticut, we're going to "go the other way" here and take Chicago to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. The Sky are 0-5 SU in their last five, and 0-3 ATS in their last three. That's significant to note here though as Chicago is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more ATS losses in a row. Connecticut is 11-3 SU, No. 1 in the Eastern Conference. It's coming off a 3-0 road trip, but with New York coming to town on Monday (No. 2 in the East), this sets up as a classic "let-down/look-ahead" spot for the Sun; no outright, but closer than expected so grab the points with Chicago! AAA Sports |
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06-24-23 | New York City FC v. Portland -105 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 59 m | Show |
10* Portland (MLS NON-CONF GOY) We like Portland to dig deep here and deliver at home. NYCFC is just 4-7, most recently drawing with Atlanta 2-2. That's NYCFC's fourth straight draw in MLS action. With a week off before a game at Montreal, we finally expect the Boys in Blue to have a letdown here. Portland is 5-8 after losing to Chicago as a -125 favorite earlier in the week, but note that the Timbers are 3-1 in their last four after a home loss as a favorite in the -105 to -135 range. Look for Portland to dig deep here and deliver in this favorable spot; the play is the Timbers! AAA Sports |
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06-24-23 | Twins -155 v. Tigers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -155 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
10* AL CENTRAL GOY on the Twins. This division is wide-open at this point of the season. No awards in MLB are handed out in June. Minnesota enters the weekend at .500 (38-38), followed by Cleveland at 36-38, then Detroit at 32-41, and then followed by the White Sox at 32-44. The good news for any of these four teams, is that they're in such a weak division right now, and that any of them that can put together a win streak and show some consistency has a real opportunity of coming out on top. That said, the Twins are still in the drivers' seat, and despite being on the road here, and no matter what the result is on Friday (releasing this pick before the Friday game goes off), we absolutely think this starting pitching matchup favors the visitors SO much, that it's now garnered a title of this magnitude. Detroit goes with Reese Olson, who is 0-2 with a 5.59 ERA. Clearly, the sample size is really small and it's difficult to draw any conclusions on Olson one way or the other, but it's still significant to note that while he's 0-1 with a 2.70 ERA on the road, he's 0-1 with an 8.90 ERA at home. So Pablo Lopez has the definite advantage here for Minnesota, as he's 3-4 with a 4.40 ERA and a 110:26 K/W ratio. Also note that while he's 2-2 with a 5.94 ERA at home this year, Lopez is 1-2 with a 2.72 ERA on the road this season. The stars and the planets have aligned and for Minnesota here on Saturday and because of that, it makes this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying; the play is indeed on Minnesota! AAA Sports |
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06-24-23 | Saskatchewan v. Calgary OVER 45 | Top | 29-26 | Win | 100 | 31 h 34 m | Show |
10* OVER Riders/Stamps (WEST-CONF TOM) We like the way this one sets up to be more of a higher-scoring shootout. Both of these Western Conference opponents are 1-1, and we're definitely expecting more of a wide-open offensive affair, rather than a slower-paced defensive one. Last week the Riders lost 45-27 at home to Winnipeg, and now Saskatchewan has to deal with another difficult offense here on the road. Both of Calgary's games have gone "under" the number, but after scoring 26 points on the road at Ottawa last week, we're expecting this offense to at least match that output here in Week 3. Both teams' QB's had huge performances last week, and all signs point to even more progression here in Week 3; this number is low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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06-23-23 | Wings v. Sparks OVER 164.5 | Top | 74-76 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
10* OVER Wings/Sparks (TOTAL BOB) Both teams have been playing several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs point to a wide-open "shootout" here finally on Friday night on the West coast. Dallas has seen the total go "under" in two of its last three, includin gin its most recent 85-73 home win over Atlanta. Previous to that it fell 109-103 to Seattle as an 8.5-point favorite. These teams play again here in two nights, and because of that, we're expecting a faster than expected pace here in the first contest. ALso not, LA is desperate to break a string of poor play which has seen it lose three straight both SU and ATS (that's significant to note though as the Sparks have seen the total go "over" the number in five of their last seven after three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row.) Both teams push the pace and that than sends this total "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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06-23-23 | Montreal v. Hamilton -140 | Top | 38-12 | Loss | -140 | 36 h 14 m | Show |
10* Hamilton moneyline (EAST-CONF GOW) The Ticats are 0-2 SU/ATS to open the season, but a little "home cooking" is just what the doctor ordered for the Hamilton Ti-Cats in Week 3. Montreal held on for a 19-12 win over Ottawa as a two-point favorite. Hamilton though just faced two of the best in the league, falling 42-31 at Winnipeg, which is the No. 1 projected, and then falling 32-14 last week at Toronto, the defending Grey Cup champ. Now back at home and with an extra game under its belt, we look for Hamilton to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish here and to pull away for a comfortable win and cover! AAA Sports |
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06-23-23 | Royals v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* UNDER Royals/Rays. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but we expect those trends to end here tonight. Tampa comes in off the 6-5 loss last night as a -304 favorite. Note that the Rays have seen the total go "under" the number in three of their last four in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. That's now four straight "overs" that TB has played to as well. KC has seen the total go "over" in three of its last four. We have two battle-tested veterans going head-to-head in this starting pitching matchup and we're expecting each to battle deep. Despite his 1-7 record, Royals' starter Zach Greinke owns a more respectable 4.61 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. He'll be opposed by Zach Eflin, who is 8-3 with a 3.26 ERA and l.00 WHIP for the Rays. All signs point to runs being at a premium in this one; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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06-22-23 | BC +6.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 32 h 57 m | Show |
10* WEST-CONF GOW on the Lions. Vernon Adams Jr. has looked sharp under center for the Lions, as he so far has 600 passing yards, 46 rushing yards and four TD's. RB Taquan Mizzell is averaging 5.8 YPC. Zach Collaros has 647 passing yards for the Bombers, along with five TD's. These QB's are evenly matched, but BC's defense is probably slightly better in the early going. In a contest that we see being decided by whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points; the play is BC! AAA Sports |
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06-22-23 | Mystics v. Sky +3.5 | Top | 80-59 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
10* Chicago Sky (CREME DE LA CREME) "Revenge" is a powerful motivating factor, and it's the primary reason that we like this play on Chicago. The Sky have now lost four straight, including a 77-69 setback at Washington as a 4.5-point underdog last time out. Note though that the Sky are 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent. A great situational spot bet; the play is Chicago! AAA Sports |
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06-22-23 | Mariners v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
10* OVER Mariners/Yanks (AL NON-DIV TOY) Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but we expect those trends to end this evening. Seattle's lost three straight, and it's seen the total go "under" in six straight. Note though that the M's have seen the total go "over" the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge two or more straight road losses against an opponent. New York snapped a four-game slide with two straight wins to open this series, but the Yanks have now seen the total go "under" in four straight. We're not fans of either starting pitcher today. The Mariners turn to Bryan Woo (0-1, 7.30 ERA) out of necessity, while the home side counters with the pedestrian Domingo German (4-4, 4.30.) The overall situation, combined with the above O/U stats makes the "over" the correct call finally in this one! AAA Sports |
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06-21-23 | Toronto FC v. FC Cincinnati -145 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 59 h 23 m | Show |
10* FC Cincinnati (GOW) We base our selections on many different things. We play underdogs, totals, and we're never afraid to lay chalk, especially when our "play on" side should/could in fact be a much larger favorite. And that's the case here. The bottom line for this one is that Toronto is still figuring out how to win tight matches, something that FC Cincinnati has perfected, and the overall depth and form of the Orange and Blue should enable them to maintain their perfect record on home soil; lay the price, the play is FC Cincinnati! AAA Sports |
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06-21-23 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
10* UNDER D-Backs/Brewers (ASSASSIN) Considering the quality of these starting pitchers and the red hot form in which both have started off this season, we're going with the "under" in this one. Arizona goes with Zac Gallen and he's 8-2 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.13 WHIP (so far he has a massive 100 to 19 strikeout to walk ratio.) And then for the Brewers you have the rejuvenated Julio Teheran, who is 2-2 with a 1.78 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Milwaukee is struggling for wins right now and the play of Teheran has obviously been a huge bonus for the Brewers. Milwaukee's strength this year so far is its pitching with a collective 4.10 ERA (that's ranked 14th.) The Brewers only average 4.03 runs per game this year (which is 26h.) Arizona averages 5.18 runs per game (which ranks fifth), but I still think it'll have a difficult time plating too many runs here on Wednesday vs. the red hot Julio Terhan. It's going to be a classic 'PITCHERS DUEL' on Wednesday night between these two super competent and in form starters; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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06-21-23 | Orioles v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | 2-7 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
8* UNDER Orioles/Rays (SUPER TOTAL) This is a really interesting series, as both teams are among the best in the American League and they're both from the same division. They say that divisional matchups are always the most important and that they almost always mean more to the home side. But we're going to steer clear of the side on this one and instead focus on the total. looking at these starting pitchers and we definitely think that runs are going to be at a premium in this game on Wednesday night. Baltimore goes with Tyler Wells who is 6-2 with a 3.20 ERA (he has an 82 to 16 strikeout to walk ratio), while the home side goes with Taj Bradley, who is 4-3 with a 4.19 ERA (and 63 to 15 strikeout to walk ratio.) Recent form always plays a big part in our handicapping and these two guys come in on top form. Expect them each to battle deep, and because of that, the play is the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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06-20-23 | Padres v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
10* UNDER Padres/Giants (ASSASSIN) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring affairs of late, but we're expecting those trends to finally end here this evening. San Fran has won eight in a row, and it's seen the total go "over" in six straight. Despite yesterday's 7-4 extra-innings win, note that the Giants have still seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. SD has seen it go "over" in two straight now, but note that it's seen the total go "under" in three of its last four in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. We have two battle-tested starters going head-to-head here and we're expecting a classic "duel" tonight: Seth Lugo is 3-3 with a 4.10 ERA for the Padres, while Anthony DeSclafani is 4-6 with a 4.31 ERA for the Giants. The situation, combined with the above O/U ATS stats makes the "under" the correct call in this one! AAA Sports |
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06-20-23 | Mets v. Astros -133 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
10* Astros (BOB) We like the Astros to snap their current five-game slide against their former teammate Justin Verlander tonight. Verlander 2-3 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.22 WHIP for the Mets, while his counterpart Framber Valdez is 6-5 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.03 WHIP for the Astros. Houston has lost five straight, which is significant to note as well, as the Astros are 7-3 in their last ten after five or more straight losses in a row. We're taking the Astros to finally bounce-back here after last night's humbling 11-1 loss; the play is Houston! AAA Sports |
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06-20-23 | Dream v. Wings -165 | Top | 73-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
10* Wings (NON-CONF GOW) Here's a great situational play. Dallas has lost three straight, both SU and ATS, and that's significant to note here as the Wings are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. These teams played here to kick off the season, and Dallas won 85-78 as a two-point favorite back on May 20th. ATL has won three straight, both SU/ATS, which is also important to take note of, as the Dream are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after three or more straight SU/ATS victories in a row. With a home game vs. New York up next, we expect the visitors to finally have a letdown here and get caught "looking ahead" as well; lay the points the play is Dallas! AAA Sports |
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06-19-23 | Red Sox v. Twins -128 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
10* Twins (AL GOW) We think the Red Sox have a classic "letdown" here after four straight victories, including three straight at home over the Yankees this weekend. Can anyone say "letdown" spot?! The Twins come in disgusted with their performance over the weekend, losing three of four to the Tigers here at home. For argument's sake, we're going to classify these starting pitchers as a "wash," as James Paxton is 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA for the Red Sox, while Pablo Lopez is 3-3 with a 4.27 ERA for the Twins. Boston is just 16-17 at home, while Minnesota is 21-17 at home. For all the reasons listed above, the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports |
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06-18-23 | Hamilton -133 v. Toronto | Top | 14-32 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
10* Hamilton (EAST-CONF GOM) The Argos are the defending Grey Cup Champs, yet they're the underdog at home here in their first game of the season?! With nearly 80% of the public money on the Argos, we're going the other way here and grabbing Hamilton. Yes, the Ti-Cats lost 42-31 at Winnipeg in Week 1, but the Blue Bombers are once again projected to be the best team in the league stat wise, and certainly offensively. The Argos have the fourth best shot at winning the Grey Cup in the early odds. But Toronto is a big step down in competition with the high turnover in the offseason. Look for the high-flying Ti-Cats to surprise the defending Champs on their own field; lay the price with confidence, the play is Hamilton on the moneyline! AAA Sports |
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06-18-23 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
10* UNDER Giants/Dodgers. Both teams have been playing to several high-scoring games of late, but we expect those trends to finally end here. San Fran has won six straight, and it's seen the total go "over" in four straight. Note though that the Dodgers have seen the the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent. The Dodgers fell 15-0 yesterday, which is also signficant to note here, as LA has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last nine in trying to avenge a loss of ten or more runs vs. an opponent. Logan Webb is 5-6 with a 3.15 ERA for the Giants, while Tony Gonsolin is 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA for the Dodgers. Expect them to battle deep and for this total to ultimately stay well "under" once it's all said and done! AAA Sports |
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06-18-23 | Rays v. Padres -143 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
10* Padres (ASSASSIN) The Rays are a great team, but we think they get caught "looking ahead" here to a day off, followed by a long stretch at home. The Padres are looking to make up ground and to win this series off yesterday's victory. Yonny Chirinos and Joe Musgrove have similar numbers, but we give the slight nod to Musgrove at home here. Look for San Diego to build off yesterday's win and lay this price with confidence! AAA Sports |
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06-17-23 | Edmonton Elks v. BC OVER 46 | Top | 0-22 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 15 m | Show |
10* OVER Elks/Lions (WEST-CONF TOY) Both teams come in off low-scoring Week 1 contests, but we're anticipating a much more wide-open contest here in BC this weekend. Edmonton fell 17-13 at home to Saskatchewan as a 2.5-point favorite. Including the two pre-season games, the Elks are 0-3. BC enters off a 25-15 road win at Calgary as a 2.5-point underdog. The total stayed well "under" the number of 50.5 in that one. Note though that BC has seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last five off an upset road win as an underdog. Talor Cornelius wasn't horrible in a losing cause for Edmonton last week, finishing with 202 yards passing, one TD and two picks. Eugene Lewis was unstoppable though with 148 receiving yards. Last year Edmonton allowed an average of 33.3 PPG, so the Week 1 result was in fact a huge improvement, but that said, that was at home. Now on the road, we're expecting a letdown. BC looked sharp in its 25-15 road win at Calgary. We should see Vernon Adams have an even stronger performance this week, as he finished 27 of 35 for 288 yards, two TD's and an INT. We're expecting a more wide-open affair here; this number is low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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06-17-23 | Columbus v. New York City FC OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -118 | 48 h 35 m | Show |
10* OVER NYCFC/Columbus (EAST-CONF. TOY) New York City FC comes in desparate to break its longest winless urn in MLS regular-season play since 2015. Last week the Pigeons managed a 0-0 draw with Real Salt Lake, pushing their winless run in MLB to eight games. The Columbus Crew come in on the other end of the spectrum, having won three in a row and off an impressive 2-1 win over the Chicago Fire. The Boys in Blue have picked up back-to-back domestic fixture wins and they'll now look to translate that into success here in MLS. New York has had plenty of success against Columbus in the past and in a contet that we see having a much "faster pace" than anticipated, we look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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06-16-23 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan +7 | Top | 45-27 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 33 m | Show |
10* Saskatchewan (BLOOD-BATH) Both teams enter 1-0 SU/ATS. Winnipeg held on for a 42-31 win over Hamilton at home as a 4.5-point favorite, while Saskatchewan looked impressive as well in a 17-13 defensive victory at Edmonton as a 2.5-point underdog. Ultimately we think that Winnipeg's offense will be a little less effective on the road, and especially facing this improved Riders defensive units. To say this is a "revenge" game as well would be an understatement after the Blue Bombers swept the season series with Saskatchewan last year. But the Bombers looked poor down the stretch last week, as they actually had a 32-4 lead with five minutes into the third quarter only to hold on for the 42-31 win. We expect the home side to make a game of this one. We're stopping short in calling for the outright upset though; grab the points, the play is the Roughriders! AAA Sports |
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06-16-23 | Blue Jays v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
10* Rangers RUNLINE (VALUE POW) Here's two teams in need of a win. That said, home field advantage can't be overlooked here in this particular matchup between two good pitchers that have been struggling of late. Toronto has lost four of its last six, including two of three at Baltimore earlier this week, while Texas has lost six of eight. Kevin Gausman (5-3, 3.12 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while Martin Perez (6-2, 4.67) toes the slab for the home side. Perez has allowed 14 runs over his last three starts, but we expect him to settle down here. Note that he's 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA over his last four starts here at Globe Life Field. Gausman got rocked in his last outing as well, allowing six runs off seven hits with four walks over just four innings. Overall we feel we're getting great value here on grabbing the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Texas on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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06-16-23 | Mercury v. Mystics OVER 157.5 | Top | 69-88 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
10* Phoenix/Washington OVER (ASSASSIN) Washington has seem the total go "under" the number in six straight after their most recent 87-66 loss at Indiana as a 4-point favorite. Note tough that the Mystics have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten off a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite. Washington is 5-4, but Phoenix is just 2-6, most recently falling 83-69 at home to Seattle as a 6.5-point favorite. That's also signficant to note, as the Mercury have seen the total go "over" the number in four of their last five off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite. Two teams in dire need of a victory are going to get out and push the pace in this one from start to finish, and as a result, we expect this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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06-15-23 | Storm v. Aces -17.5 | Top | 63-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
10* Aces (BOB) For us, this is a great "situational" play, set up by some strong ATS stats. Seattle is coming off an 83-69 win at Phoenix as a 6.5-point favorite, but note that the Storm are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten off a SU/ATS road win as an underdog. The last time these teams faced off, Las Vegas won by a score of 105-64, and that's what we're expecting here tonight as well. Las Vegas is 8-1, and while it's just 1-4 ATS in its last five, we absolutely feel that the value has now finally swung the other way for the Aces. We expect Las Vegas to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion; lay the points, the play is indeed on the Aces! AAA Sports |
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06-15-23 | Angels v. Rangers -137 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -137 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
10* Rangers (AL GOM) Texas broke a three-game slide with a convincing 6-3 win last night, and we're expecting the home side to now close out this series with another victory, despite the Angels going with their ace Shohei Ohtani. He's 5-2 with a 3.32 ERA, but he's lost his last four starts in Texas. Nathan Eovaldi is having a huge season and we expect him to keep that momentum rolling here, coming in at 9-2 with a 2.49 ERA. LA is now 8-2 in its last ten, but we're expecting the visiting side to have another letdown here. Eovaldi is in fact 8-0 with a 1.65 ERA over his last ten starts; in our humble opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value." The play is Texas! AAA Sports |
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06-15-23 | Calgary v. Ottawa +5.5 | Top | 26-15 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 21 m | Show |
10* Redblacks (ASSASSIN) Both teams are 0-1 to open the season. In a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points. Ottawa will have Nick Arbuckle under center, and Calgary has Jake Maier starting. Maier and the Stamps got squashed at home 25-15 by the BC Lions, who aren't expected to do much this season. Maier had 166 yards, 1 TD and I INT. Ka'Deem Carey had just 39 rushing yards. Ottawa fell 19-12 to Montreal. Arbuckle had three INT's and was 19 of 35 for 175 yards. Let's be honest, both teams looked shaky. But we're expecting Arbuckle to improve here, and Ottawa's defense looked pretty good overall. The outright upset?! Anything's possible, but we're not calling for that; grab the points, the play is indeed on Ottawa! AAA Sports |
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06-14-23 | Houston Dynamo v. Los Angeles FC UNDER 3 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 30 h 0 m | Show |
10* UNDER Houston/LA FC (MLS TOW) LA FC is on a terrible run right now, having gone five straight matches without a win across all leagues. They also fell 4-0 to Houston on Sunday in MLS action, breaking their four-game unbeaten streak in MLS (note though that LA FC has seen the total go "under" the number in three of its last four in trying to avenge a shutout loss against an opponent.) LAFC was at one point unbeaten over its first eight matches in the MLS. Houston will have to be careful not to have a letdown here after a superb performance against Chicago in the US Open Cup last week to cement their spot in the Semi-Final with Real Salt Lake. Note as well that in eight away MLS matches, Houston has taken just two points. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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06-14-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks -133 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -133 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
10* Diamondbacks (ASSASSIN) This was an interesting series matchup before it started on Monday, as each team came into the series really hot. Arizona win won the opener 9-8, but Philadelphia bounced back wiht a big 15-3 victory last night. However, we think this is a starting pitching matchup that does favor the D-Backs here, and at this price at home, we expect they can keep the momentum rolling. The Phillies are still just 14-23 on the road, while Arizona is now 21-15 at home. The visiting side hands the ball to the lefty Ranger Suarez, who is 1-2 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. He's so far been consistently inconsistent and we don't see things changing here in this difficult road venue and also especially going up against Arizona Ace Merrill Kelly, who is 8-3 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Kelly has admittedly been better on the road than at home, he's 5-0 with a 2.12 ERA on the road, and 3-3 with a 3.56 ERA at home. But, despite that, we still think at this price here at home that Kelly is for sure the VALUE PLAY; lay the short price, the play is Arizona! AAA Sports |
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06-14-23 | Marlins v. Mariners UNDER 7 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
10* UNDER Marlins/Mariners (TOTAL BOB) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, including in the Mariners 9-3 win last night. Seattle has seen the total go "over" the number in three straight, which is significant to note as the M's have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Miami has also seen the total go "over" in three straight, which is also important for us to take note, as the Fish have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. We have two red hot starters going head to head, and that's another reason this total is so low, but still not low enough in our estimation. Eury Perez is 3-1 with a 2.17 ERA for the Marlins, while Luis Castillo is 4-4 with a 2.70 ERA for the M's; all signs finally point to a lower-scoring "under" in this one! AAA Sports |
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06-13-23 | Panthers v. Golden Knights -166 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 36 h 7 m | Show |
10* Vegas (WINNER) Florida has responded well in this spot for bettors, but at this price, and despite most of the public money on them, we still think that the Knights offer really great value to secure its first ever Stanley Cup. Las Vegas has been great on both ends of the ice in this series, but especially on the defensive end. Now on the road, we expect the Panthers to falter as the game wares on. Lay the price, the play is Las Vegas! AAA Sports |
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06-13-23 | Dream v. Liberty UNDER 171 | Top | 86-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* UNDER Dream/Liberty (TOY) These teams played last week and New YOrk won at Atlanta by a score of 106-83. The total went well "over" the number of 165, but we're expecting a more defensive affair here in the rematch. Note that ATL has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss vs. an opponent. ATL has lost three straight, and it's seen the total go "over" in three straight. Note though that the Dream have seen the total go "under" the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Look for a much more methodical pace here; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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06-13-23 | Rockies v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
10* OVER Rockies/Red Sox (IL TOW) Everything points to this one flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later. Colorado has seen the total go "under" the number in three straight now after yesterday's 4-3 win here. Note though that Colorado has seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Boston has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Chase Anderson is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Rockies. Difficult spot for Anderson obviously and the sample size is just too small. Karl Crawford is 1-3 with a 3.68 ERA for the Red Sox. This is just a case of each of these guys being in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" though, as the overall situation, comibned with the above relevant O/U ATS stats all do indeed point to this one flying "over" the posted number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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06-12-23 | Heat +9 v. Nuggets | Top | 89-94 | Win | 100 | 35 h 49 m | Show |
10* Heat (BLOCKBUSTER) After back-to-back losses, we like Miami to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Note that the Heat are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight SU/ATS home losses vs. an opponent. Miami won't go down without a savage fight here. The Heat were undervalued and overlooked throughout the Playoffs, and we think that's the case here as well. This is just too many points for a Denver to cover. The Nuggets are likely going to be Champions after this, but good teams win and GREAT teams cover; grab the points, the play is Miami! AAA Sports |
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06-12-23 | Angels v. Rangers -150 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -150 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
10* Rangers (AL GOW) The Angels have been surging, and the Rangers have been stumbling somewhat of late, but I think the home side has the better starting pitcher going tonight and that'll be more than enough to help Texas get back on track in the opener of this series. LA has won six of its last seven, but off a 9-4 home win over Seattle yesterday, I think it'll have its hands full here with a now focussed Rangers side looking to snap a skid in which they've lost four of their last five. But as stated, this starting pitching matchup favors the home side in my opinion, as Tyler Anderson is 3-1 with a ballooned 5.62 ERA for the Halos, while Dane Dunning is 5-1 with a 2.52 ERA for the Rangers; lay the price, the play is Texas! AAA Sports |
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06-11-23 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
10* Red Sox/Yanks OVER (AL EAST TOY) Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but we're expecting those trends to end this evening. Boston has seen the total go "under" in both games here in the Bronx, including yesterday's 3-1 loss. It's interesting to note though that the BoSox have seen the total go "over" the number in three of their last four in trying to avenge a road loss against an opponent in which they were held to one or no runs in. New York has now seen the total go "under" in three straight, which is significant to note here as well, as the Yanks have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Both starting pithers have been "pedestrian" at best this year, and pedestrian won't get the job done tonight in our opinion. Brian Bello is 3-4 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.43 WHIP for the Red Sox, while Clarke Schmidt is 2-6 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.46 WHIP for the Yanks. Look for these guys to make an early exit and ultimately expect this total to fly "over" the posted number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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06-11-23 | Saskatchewan v. Edmonton Elks -135 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
10* Edmonton MONEYLINE (ASSASSIN) We're going to suggest skipping playing the spread, and instead just lay the price for Edmonton to win this game "straight up." Saskatchewan missed the playoffs last year for hte first time since 2016. Trevor Harris is a new face under center for the visiting side. Edmonton fans can empathize though, as their team has just seven combined wins over the last two seasons. Taylor Cornelius showed flashes of competence last year under center for the Elks, and we expect him to be a difference-maker here on Opening night on home soil. Edmonton is at home and Cornelius is more acclimated with his offense than his counterpart. Lay the moneyline, the play is the Elks! AAA Sports |
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06-11-23 | Sun v. Dream UNDER 163.5 | Top | 89-77 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
10* UNDER Connecticut/Atlanta (SUPER TOTAL) These teams have been playing to some higher-scoring games, but we expect those trends to end this evening. Connecticut is 7-2 after splitting a home two-game series with Las Vegas most recently. Both games went "over" the number. Atlanta is just 2-4 after back-to-back losses, most recently a 106-83 setback at home here to New York. That though is important for us to take note of, because ATL has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after a home loss in which it allowed 100 or more points in. This is in fact the opener of a home and home set between these clubs, and all signs point to this first game being a tight, lower-scoring defensive one; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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06-10-23 | Golden Knights +103 v. Panthers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 103 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
10* Vegas (BLOCKBUSTER) We've played on Vegas in every game so far, and we'll ride the Knights again here. Strengths and weaknesses are well known for each side. There are literally millions of reveiew articles out there if you want to get up to speed on how each reached this point. The bottom line here though is that Vegas has responded well in this spot for bettors, going 4-1 in its last five in trying to avenge a road loss as an underdog vs. an opponent; great value here on the Knights! AAA Sports |
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06-10-23 | Ottawa v. Montreal OVER 43.5 | Top | 12-19 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
10* OVER Ottawa/Montreal (ASSASSIN) Ottawa Redblacks missed the playoffs last year with a 4-14 record. Ottawa QB Jeremiah Masoli is out with a knee injury, so we'll see a combination here of Dustin Crum, Nick Arbuckle and Tyrie Adams. The Alouettes signed QB Cody Fajardo, who finished with 16 TDs and 13 INTs for the Roughriders last year. Look for Fajardo to be given the green light here today to open things up in this new offense. Expect this total to soar "over" the number as the game comes down the stretch! AAA Sports |
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06-10-23 | Mets v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
10* UNDER Mets/Pirates (SUPER TOTAL) Both teams have been struggling, and each has been playing to several higher-scoring affairs of late. These facts though have only helped in contributing to this total here on Saturday in being a bit higher than it normally would/should be in our opinion. The Mets have now lost seven straight, and they've seen the total go "over" the number in their last three, including in yesterday's 14-7 series opening loss here. Note though that New York has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Pittsburgh has also seen the total go "over" the number in three straight, which is also significant to note here as the Pirates have seen the total go "under" the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Two really decent starters who we expect to battle deep; the Mets turn to Kodai Senga, who is 5-3 with a 3.75 ERA, while the home side counters with Johan Oviedo, who is 3-4 with a 4.29 ERA. The overall situation combined with the above listed ATS trends does indeed make the "under" the correct call in this one! AAA Sports |
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06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 108-95 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
10* Heat (GOW) If you want a complete review of how each of thee team's got here, then there are plenty of "preview" articles out there. Literally millions. If you're wagering on this game then you know the cast of characters and the strengths and weaknesses of each side. You also know that Denver is up 2-1 in this series, and because of that, we're expecting Miami to risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes to secure another slight upset. Note that Miami has done well in this spot for bettors as well, going 7-2 ATS in its last nine off a home loss as an underdog. In a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points; the play is Miami! AAA Sports |
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06-09-23 | Mercury v. Wings OVER 167.5 | Top | 77-90 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
10* OVER Phoenix/Dallas (TOW) These teams have been involved in some lower-scoring games of late, but we're expecting those trends to end this evening. The Mercury will be hungry to get back in to the winner's circle after starting the season just 1-4. That includes an 84-79 loss here at Dallas just two nights ago. While Phoenix did cover with the 5.5-point spread, the total went "under" the number of 167.5. Note though that the Mercury have seen the total go "over" the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU road loss vs. an opponent. Dallas is 4-3. It's seen the total go "under" in three straight, which is significant to note, as the Wings have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. We're expecting a much more efficent, and overall faster-paced affair here in the second game of the B2B scenario between these clubs; this number is low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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06-09-23 | Twins v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
10* OVER Twins/Jays (ASSASSIN) Both teams have been playing to several lwer-scoring games of late, but we're expecting those trends to come to an explosive end here in the opener of this one North of the border. Minnesota has lost five straight, and it's seen the total go "under" in six straight. Note though that the Twins have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last ten after playing to five or more straight losses in a row. The Jays enter the weekend after playing four staright at home here to Houston, going 3-1 in the process, winning the last three in the series, with all three of those contests going "under" the number. Note though that TO has seen the total go "over" the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Both pitchers have been decent, with Sonny Gray at 4-1 with 2.15 ERA for the Twins, while Yusei Kikuchi is 6-2 with a 4.40 ERA for the Jays. This, though, is just a case of each being in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time," as the overall situation, combined with the above listed O/U ATS stats do indeed make the "over" the correct call as far as the total is concerned in this one in our opinion! AAA Sports |
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06-08-23 | BC v. Calgary OVER 50.5 | Top | 25-15 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
10* OVER Lions/Stampeders (TOTAL BLOWOUT) These teams met in the West Division semi-final last year, so blood will be boiling on each side and we expect that to translate into offensive production on the field. Note that this O/U line opened at 46.5 and has since been bet up. We're following the money on this one and expecting this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. The Lions were 6-3 on the road last year, while the Stamps were 5-4 at home. Vernon Adams Jr. and Taquan Mizzell are an effective duo for the Lions. Jake Maier is now under center in Calgary, and he'll be leaning on 1,000-yard receiver Malik Henry and running back Ka’Deem Carey. But overall here in Week 1 and on Opening Night, we can expect a faster-paced, wide-open offensive affair; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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06-08-23 | Golden Knights +110 v. Panthers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 9 m | Show |
10* Knights (BLOCKBUSTER) With a line like this, clearly the oddsmakers believe these teams are very evenly matched. And for the most part they are, but the Playoffs, and the Finals are all about "momentum" and timing and Las Vegas comes to the East Coast with a ton of each working in their favor. With the majority of the public wagers on the Panthers here in Game 3, we're staying true to our contrarian ways and "going the other way." In many such instances in the past, we'd be quick to back the 0-2 team in this situation, but that doesn't always work out. And in our opinion, this will be one of those instances. Overall the VALUE here in our opinion is on Las Vegas at this price; and that's the call, the play is the Golden Knights! AAA Sports |
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06-08-23 | White Sox v. Yankees OVER 8 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
8* OVER White Sox/Yanks (TOTAL BLOWOUT) These teams have been playing to several lower-scoring affairs of late, including in the White Sox 3-2 upset victory here in yesterday's series opener, but we're expecting much more of a "slug-fest" here on Thursday afternoon in the Bronx. Note that New York has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The White Sox have now won four straight, and they've seen the total go "under" in all four of those contests as well. That fact though has only helped in driving today's number a little lower than it normally would/should be though in our opinion. Neither starter has been anything to write home about this year. Lance Lynn is 4-6 with a 6.55 ERA for the White Sox, while Luis Severino is 0-1 with a 5.28 ERA for the Yanks. This number is low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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06-07-23 | Nuggets -135 v. Heat | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 60 h 40 m | Show |
10* Nuggets (BLOCKBUSTER) We base a lot of our selections on public perception. We're contrarian handicappers at heart. The lines here in the Finals are sharper than ever. The value here for us though lies in Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets bouncing back and taking Game 3 (note that Denver is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent.) We've played on Miami a lot during the Playoffs already. In fact, we had a play on Miami in the FIRST HALF in Game 2, and while the came up just short unfortunately, the Heat did go on to win and cover (we did also recommend to play for the ENTIRE game if did not have access to FIRST HALF lines.) So that was an unfortunate loss, but here we feel the value has now swung in favor of the visiting side, which has responded well in this spot for bettors; lay the short points, the play is Denver! AAA Sports |
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06-07-23 | Orioles v. Brewers OVER 8 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
10* OVER Orioles/Brewers (BEST OF BEST) These teams have been playing to lower-scoring affairs of late, but we're expecting that to end this evening. We had a play on Milwaukee last night in the Brewers 4-3 extra-innings victory. Milwaukee is now back in 1st in the NL Central at 33-28. Milwaukee has now won four of its last five. It's seen the total go "under" in six of its last seven, including in three straight. That's important to take note of for us though, as the Brewers have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Baltimore has seen the total go "under" in three of its last four, including in the most recent loss. The Brewers get the job done most nights with the seventh ranked offense that averages 4.92 RPG. The overall ERA is middle of the road though at 4.16, ranked 15th. The overall situation, combined with the strong O/U ATS stat listed above, makes the OVER the correct call here in this one on Wednesday night! AAA Sports |
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06-06-23 | Fever +6.5 v. Sky | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* Fever (WNBA GOW) Chicago is 4-3, while Indiana is 1-4. The desperate Fever have a legitimate shot at winning this one outright in our opinion, but in a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're going to recommend to grab as many points as you can. Indiana may only be 1-4 SU, but it's 3-2 ATS, including winning three straight ATS. We feel that the Fever are still being undervalued here. Chicago broke a two-game slide with an 86-82 win at New York last time out. The Sky are 6-1 ATS, and now we firmly believe they're overvalued by casual bettors at this point. Chicago hits the road after this for a Westcoast swing, so it's also a "look ahead." Look for the desperate vistors to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch; the play is Indiana! AAA Sports |
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06-06-23 | Orioles v. Brewers -115 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
10* Brewers (IL GOY) We like the Brewers to carry over their recent momentum here at home, and overall we feel the home side offers tremendous value at this price. Each team had Monday off. Baltimore has been trading wins and losses over its last eight games, and off an 8-3 win over San Fran most recently, we're expecting this trend to continue here. Milwaukee is now first in the NL Central off a sweep of what was a red hot Cincinnati side over the weekend. Kyle Gibson is 7-3 with a 3.89 ERA for the Orioles, while Freddy Peralta is 5-5 with a 4.62 ERA for the Brewers. For arguments sakes, we're calling these guys a "wash." The Brewers bullpen has been strong over the last month and once again, this all comes down to what we perceive to be insane "line value" on what we feel is a very undervalued and hungry home side; lay the short price, the play is Milwaukee! AAA Sports |
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06-06-23 | Twins v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
10* OVER Twins/Rays (AL TOM) Both teams come into this series having played to several lower-scoring games, but we're expecting those trends to end this evening. Minnesota went 2-2 at home against Cleveland this weekend, losing the final two. The final three games in the series went "under" the number, which is important to note here as the Twins have seen the total go "over" the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Tampa took three of four in Boston over the weekend. The final three games went "under" the number. And that's also significant to take note of, as the Rays have seen the total go "over" the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Louie Varland is 3-1 with a 3.51 ERA for Minnesota, while Zach Eflin is 7-1 with a 3.30 ERA for the Rays. We have a difficult time finding too many negative things to say about either starter, so we won't bother. The overall situation, combined with the above listed O/U trends though will see this one fly "over" the number as the game comes down the stretch! AAA Sports |