Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-23-21 | 49ers -3 v. Titans | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF We really like San Francisco in this Thursday night matchup. They are playing much better than Tennessee at the moment and the Titans’ alarming number of absences only continues to grow. It was announced Wednesday that the entire starting left side of the Titans’ offensive line - tackle Taylor Lewan and guard Rodger Saffold - will miss this game. That seems particularly ill-timed as the 49ers have Nick Bosa, who has recorded 15 sacks this year and one in each of the last six games. Of course, the Titans were already without Derrick Henry and we’ve seen the effect on their offense as they’ve gone four straight games without scoring more than 20 points. Their only win in those four games was over the hapless Jaguars. The 49ers are 5-1 in their last six games and now control their own destiny in the NFC playoff picture. Go back to the start of the season and you may remember that many were predicting the Niners to be one of this year’s most improved teams. They just rocked Atlanta 31-13 at home last week. On the road, SF has been a covering machine for Kyle Shanahan, going 15-8 ATS including 4-1 when favored by three or less. The Niners have won 17 of their last 23 road games. They are the better team, so we will lay the points. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas +2.5 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NORTH TEXAS North Texas saved its season and maybe coach Seth Littrell’s job by winning its last five games. They are even hotter ATS, having covered six in a row. The win that got them bowl eligible was the most impressive as they defeated previously unbeaten UTSA, 45-23. You can honestly make the case that there aren’t many teams in the country hotter than the Mean Green entering bowl season. Miami may have been the best team in the MAC this year, but didn’t even get a shot at playing for the Conference Championship as they dropped their final regular season game, 49-48 to Kent State. The RedHawks are only 6-6, but they are 6-3 in their last nine games with the three defeats coming by a grand total of five points. Still though, we don’t think they should be the favorite in this one. The Miami offense likes to pass, but that plays into the strength of the North Texas defense, which allows only 230 yards/game through the air. The clear strength of the North Texas offense is the running game, which averages 246 yards/game, third most in the nation behind Army and Air Force (two teams that don’t pass). The Miami defense wasn’t very good against the run this year, so look for that to be the difference in the first ever Frisco Football Classic. Take the points with North Texas. Play on NORTH TEXAS AAA |
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12-22-21 | Illinois -13.5 v. Missouri | Top | 88-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 10* on ILLINOIS This game takes place in St. Louis and is known as the “Braggin Rights Game.” Last year, in the midst of the pandemic, a decision was made to “flip a coin” for home court advantage. Missouri won the coin toss and then the game, 81-78 as a 3.5 point underdog. You can bet Illinois remembers that and will be out for revenge Wednesday night. This Fighting Illini team isn’t as strong as the one that earned a #1 seed in last year’s NCAA Tournament. But they are a lot better than Missouri, who comes in at 6-5 with losses to the likes of Kansas City and Liberty. The Tigers also got blown out by 37 against Kansas earlier in the month. Illinois’ only loss this month came against an Arizona team that is among the very best in America. We’re a bit perplexed that the Illini aren’t in the Top 25. The revenge angle definitely matters here and we look for the Illini to make a big statement. It promises to be a dark day for Missouri athletics as we’re also fading the football team in the Armed Forces Bowl. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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12-22-21 | Nuggets -5.5 v. Thunder | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Oklahoma City just picked up a win, which is not something that happens all that often. We had them plus the points on Monday as they beat Memphis 102-99 in a huge revenge spot. Remember that the Grizzlies had previously handed OKC the largest loss in NBA history (73 points) back on December 2nd. Even more rare is the fact the Thunder have now won two straight games. They also beat the Clippers 104-103 on Saturday. Since winning four in a row in early November, the Thunder have not strung together more than two straight wins at any point. So tonight is a good time to fade them. Denver, who is also coming off an upset win, has had the last four days off. The Nuggets were supposed to play in Brooklyn Sunday, but the Nets’ COVID outbreak had other ideas. In their last game, Denver put up 133 points against Atlanta. Over their last six contests, the Nuggets are scoring almost 120 points/game. If they can maintain that average, then it’s “smooth sailing” tonight. Oklahoma City can’t score even close to 120. They are last in the league at 99.2 points/game. Honestly, the Nuggets won’t even need 120 to cover here. They swept the season series last year and OKC never scored more than 101 in any of those three games. Play on DENVER AAA |
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12-22-21 | Missouri v. Army -6.5 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARMY It’s only apropos that Army would be involved in the Armed Forces Bowl. The Black Knights are a perfect 3-0 all-time in this particular bowl, last winning it in 2018 when they smashed Houston 70-14. This time they are looking to recover from a disappointing 17-13 loss to Navy in the regular season finale. Prior to losing to their rivals, the Cadets had won four in a row. The opponent on Wednesday is Missouri out of the SEC. The Tigers were, at one point, 0-8 ATS this season before they covered the spread as 40-point underdogs in a 43-6 loss to Georgia. Their leading rusher (Badie) has elected to skip this game to prepare for the NFL Draft. Badie didn’t just lead his team in rushing, he led the entire SEC in rushing! On top of that, the Tigers are trying a new starter at quarterback. Mizzou just isn’t a very good team and on top of everything, a defense that struggles to stop the run (229 YPG allowed) figures to have a LONG day at the office here against Army’s triple option. Play on ARMY AAA |
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12-21-21 | Lightning v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The last NHL game before a “holiday break” will go down in Sin City as the Golden Knights host the Lightning. Both teams can score and are likely to give us some “final fireworks” for 2021. Tampa Bay, surprisingly, is down in scoring this year. But they are still putting up 3.4 goals per game on the road. As for Vegas, they are averaging 3.6 goals/game and have found the back of the net 22 times in the last five games.Seven of Vegas’ last 10 games have seen more than six combined goals scored. Tampa has played three straight low-scoring games, but they played Ottawa twice and Los Angeles. At no point in the season have the Lightning gone Under in four consecutive games. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-21-21 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 219.5 | Top | 108-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
full analysis to follow |
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12-21-21 | San Diego State v. UTSA OVER 49 | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 29 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Tuesday’s Frisco Bowl features two teams that are a combined 23-3 this year. Both appeared in their respective Conference Championship Games. UTSA is 12-1 and won the Conference USA Title Game, beating Western Kentucky by a score of 49-41. San Diego State is 11-2, but lost the Mountain West Title Game, 46-13 to Utah State. The Aztecs usually play better defense than they showed in that last game, but missing several players because of COVID-19 proved too difficult to overcome. Stopping the UTSA offense will also be challenging. The Roadrunners put up 37.8 points/game. While they won’t have RB McCormick and San Diego State is likely the best defense they’ve faced in 2021, look for UTSA to still put up a solid number of points in this game. To this point, we’ve seen little defense played in these early bowls (typical) and the Over is 7-1 entering Monday. The Conference USA Title Game marked the fifth time since the beginning of October that UTSA scored 44 or more points in a game. The San Diego State offense may not pack the same sort of punch, but going against a UTSA defense that will be down a couple of starters is a nice break. UTSA allows 5.6 yards per play and it’s last three opponents averaged 39 points. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-21-21 | Xavier v. Villanova -5.5 | Top | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on 'NOVA Xavier takes an 11-1 record into Philly tonight. The Musketeers have won seven straight games and already pulled three upsets this year. They did not cover the spread in their last game, however. As 11-point favorites, Xavier could only beat Marquette 80-71. It’s much tougher opposition on Tuesday. We say that knowing full well that Villanova has lost two straight games, one to #1 Baylor and the other to Creighton. Both those losses were on the road though. Poor shooting was the culprit in each loss. Nova made only 22.2% of its field goal attempts when they faced Baylor. They were “up” to 33.3% vs. Creighton. From three-point range, they went a combined 10 of 50 in the two games. At home, that’s not going to happen. The Wildcats have averaged 90.7 points in their three previous home games. Xavier has lost seven in a row here and failed to cover the spread in all seven losses. With four losses already on this season’s resume, Nova can’t afford another. Look for a strong effort at both ends tonight. Lay it! Play on VILLANOVA AAA |
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12-20-21 | Wild v. Stars -112 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DAL At the start of December, both of these Central Division teams were playing well. Minnesota had an eight-game win streak that was the third longest in team history. Dallas was on a seven-game run of its own. But then things went south for the Stars as they lost five in a row, their longest losing streak since 2014. That streak is now over following Saturday’s emotional OT win over the Blackhawks where the team overcame a scary injury to Tanner Kero, who had to be stretchered off the ice. While three power play goals were the key to victory for Dallas, they outshot Chicago 39-23 and probably should have won that game in regulation. On the other hand, there was no sugarcoating how poorly Minnesota played in a 3-2 loss to Buffalo on Thursday, even though the game went to a shootout. The Wild allowed 40 shots on goal as they lost for a third straight time. After winning eight in a row, it’s now been 11 days since the Wild won a game as they’ve also dealt with two postponements during that stretch. Tough to get into a rhythm when you’re dealing with unexpected time off. The Stars have had this game circled ever since taking a 7-2 loss in the Twin Cities last month. Look for them to send Minnesota to its fourth straight defeat. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears +6.5 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHI With Minnesota desperately needing a win tonight, this line has skyrocketed. The Vikings are one of five NFC teams currently with six or seven wins and the Saints shocking upset of the Buccaneers last night puts even more pressure on the road team to win here. While it is true that the Vikings are the only team in the NFL yet to suffer a defeat by more than eight points, they also have just one win by more than eight points and that was back in Week 3 against Seattle. Not sure how you can trust this team laying more than a field goal on the road after watching them blow nearly all of a 29-0 lead last week at home to Pittsburgh. Minnesota is never as good away from home where they are giving up 29.2 points/game as opposed to the 21.2 per game they allow at home. They have just two road wins all year. Plus they are just 5-16 at Soldier Field this century and 1-5 overall in the last six meetings with the Bears. QB Cousins has a terrible 1-9 record on Monday Night Football. The Bears were winning at halftime last week at Green Bay, so don’t be fooled by that final score. Three of the four previous games were decided by three points or less. We’re grabbing the points. How can you trust Minnesota to win big on the road? Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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12-20-21 | Thunder +8.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OKC Memphis has gone a very impressive 10-2 so far without Ja Morant. But one of those two losses was last night, 105-100 to Portland as 4.5 point home favorites). Now the Grizzlies are set to play again, without rest, Monday vs. Oklahoma City. Since the Morant injury, there’s been just one time the Grizzlies were asked to play back to back nights. On that occasion, they lost the first game but came back to win the second, 108-95 over the Lakers. But when analyzing this win streak, one can see the oddsmakers haven’t really taken the Grizzlies all that seriously. Now they (the oddsmakers) have them laying a big number tonight vs. Oklahoma City. Of course, everyone remembers the last time these teams played. Memphis won in record-setting fashion, 152-79. It was the largest single game margin of victory in NBA history. Tonight is the Thunder’s shot at revenge. OKC just beat the Clippers on Saturday. They are 3-3 straight up since that humiliating defeat earlier this month. We won’t say they’ll win tonight, but take the points as Memphis is in a bad spot and unlikely to continue playing as well as they have without Morant. Play on OKLAHOMA CITY AAA |
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12-20-21 | Western Carolina v. Georgia -10 | Top | 79-85 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UGA Georgia has had their problems recently, but should roll tonight, at home vs. Western Carolina. The Bulldogs are looking to put an 80-67 loss to George Mason behind them. The loss, which took place Saturday, was here in Athens and the ‘Dawgs were 2.5 point favorites. Falling into a 14-0 hole to start the game was the “death knell” as UGA was playing for the first time in 11 days and first time since losing a second starter to a season-ending injury. We understand the current “state of the program” may not sound great in Athens, but this Western Carolina team that’s paying a visit on Monday is pretty bad. The Catamounts have not played in over a week. Their last game was a one-point loss to UNC-Asheville. Georgia still did a good job on the offensive glass vs. George Mason, but somehow came away with only seven second chance points. Their size advantage in this matchup should result in a lot more inside scoring, whether it’s on first or second chance opportunities. Western Carolina relies heavily on the three, but Georgia’s size will make them struggle in that area tonight. The Bulldogs beat Memphis here earlier this month. There’s no reason to think they can’t blow out this Western Carolina team. Play on GEORGIA AAA |
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12-19-21 | Saints +11.5 v. Bucs | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEW ORLEANS So much has changed since the Saints defeated the Buccaneers 36-27 as four point home dogs back in Week 8. New Orleans lost Jameis Winston to injury in that win and hasn’t really gotten great quarterback play since. After beating Tampa, the Saints lost their next five games, a streak which finally ended last week by beating the Jets 30-9. The Bucs are 5-0 SU/ATS as double digit favorites this season and have a 6-0 record at home. So it’s not a surprise that they are such big favorites for Sunday Night Football. But we still like this Saints’ defense and think they can keep it close. Trevor Siemian took a lot of the snaps for NO in the first game vs. the Bucs. Now it’s going to be Taysom Hill, who adds a different dimension to the offense. Tampa’s defense showed that it was not very good last week, letting Buffalo come back from a 21-point halftime deficit to force overtime. Alvin Kamara returned to the Saints lineup last week after missing four games. The Saints have won the last six regular season meetings with the Bucs. Do they win here? Probably not. But they will stay within the number. So take the points. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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12-19-21 | Blazers v. Grizzlies OVER 220 | Top | 105-100 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It’s been two very different Decembers for Portland and Memphis. The Blazers have lost seven of their eight games this month (and are just 2-10 in their L12). The Grizzlies have won 10 of their last 11, all without Ja Morant, including five straight victories. To say that’s a surprise would be putting it mildly. Perhaps most surprising of all is the Grizzlies’ ability to score. They average 111.5 points/game, tied for third in the NBA. They’ve topped that season-average in each of the last four games. In the last game, they scored 124 points against the Kings and picked up a third straight double digit victory. There’s no reason to believe Memphis won’t have another big offensive night here. Portland is allowing 111.4 points/game this year, fourth most in the league. During this 2-10 slide, they’ve allowed 115.6 points/game. But the Blazers did win last time out, 125-116 against Charlotte, thanks to a season-high 43 points from Damian Lillard. This has the makings of a high-scoring affair. The Over has hit in each of Portland’s previous five Sunday games. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-19-21 | Bengals +3 v. Broncos | Top | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI Last week, the SuperBook had the look-ahead line for this game at Bengals -3. But due to last week’s results, we’re now a long ways away from that look-ahead line. Denver definitely didn’t have any problem winning 38-10 last week, but that was against a 1-win Detroit team that was playing shorthanded. As for Cincinnati, they came all the way back from a 20-6 fourth quarter deficit to force overtime. But after kicking a FG to go up 23-20, the defense gave up a TD to lose 26-23. With both the Bengals and Broncos coming in at 7-6, this is a massive game for both teams’ playoff hopes. The bloom has come off the “Cincinnati rose” a bit in recent weeks as the Bengals have lost two straight at home. But they still have a +61 point differential and are 4-1 on the road. We think the Bengals are better than the Broncos. No team has scored more touchdowns outside the red zone than Cincy. Joe Burrow’s finger injury doesn’t look to be a problem as he threw for over 300 yards last week. We really can’t see the Bengals losing three straight after such a good start to the year. Home favorites of less than a field goal have performed quite poorly this NFL season. They are 6-14 straight up and ATS. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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12-19-21 | Jets +9.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NY JETS Miami returns from its bye on a five-game win streak (also 5-0 ATS) and at 6-7 for the year. They are just one game behind the Bills for second place in the AFC East and very much still alive in the playoff hunt. Down at the bottom of the division is the Jets, who are 3-10 and coming off a rather ugly 30-9 home loss to New Orleans. While we can understand the lack of enticement for the Jets in this spot, this is a lot of points for Miami to lay. The Dolphins still only average 19.5 points/game. They were 6.5 point favorites in their last game and did cover, but that’s the only game this season where the ‘Fins were a favorite of more than 3.5 points. During the win streak, Miami’s average of 2.9 yards per carry ranked dead last in the league and they may not have any of their top three running backs on Sunday. Are the Jets bad? In a word, yes. But only three teams in NFL history have gotten back to .500 after falling six or more games below and it’s happened only once since 1984. If this line reaches double digits, it will be only the second time since 2010 that Miami is favored by 10 or more. What we are saying here is that the line is just too high. The Jets will keep this one close. Play on NY JETS AAA |
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12-19-21 | Cowboys v. Giants OVER 44 | Top | 21-6 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 8* on OVER The Cowboys and Giants renew acquaintances in Week 15. The Cowboys lead the NFC East by three games with a 9-4 record. After taking a 24-0 lead into halftime last week vs. Washington, things did get a bit too close for comfort when the Football Team stormed back to get within seven. But Dallas did win the game, 27-20. Another win here would move Dallas very close to wrapping up a division title. In recent years, the Giants have been rather accommodating. Including a 44-20 win on Oct 10, the Cowboys have taken eight of the last nine meetings from the Giants. The incarnation of the G-men that they will face on Sunday has Mike Glennon playing QB. The Giants lost 37-21 last week to the Chargers to fall to 4-9. Despite Glennon playing QB for the Giants and the Cowboys’ being banged up at running back, we like this game to go Over, just as the last meeting did. Dallas is second in the league in scoring at 29.2 points/game. We had the Over in last week’s game vs. Washington and were denied a win by a missed extra point. We look for this game to make it Over, as similar to last week, the Cowboys should race out to a big lead and then start playing lax defense. The Over is 17-8 in the previous 25 Cowboys-Giants matchups, including 4-1 the previous five. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-19-21 | Titans v. Steelers -1 | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PITTSBURGH Tennessee is 9-4, which believe it or not has them tied with the Patriots and Chiefs for the best record in the AFC. We understand that the Titans beat the Chiefs as well as the likes of the Colts, Bills and Rams. But does this really “feel” like the top team in the AFC? We don’t think so. Do not forget they lost to the Texans. With only a +34 point point differential on the year, Tennessee should probably feel lucky to be 9-4. Remember their point differential was only +14 before sending Urban Meyer to an early retirement last week. The Titans have four wins by three points or less. Now Pittsburgh’s also been a bit lucky in close games. But with their record at only 6-6-1, they are in much more dire need of a win Sunday. At home, we think they get the win they need. Lots of injuries on the Titans' side. There’s no Derrick Henry and no AJ Brown. That’s part of the reason the offense could only manage 3.8 yards per play against the Jaguars last week. Key for the Steelers is getting off to a good start. They’ve scored zero first half touchdowns the last three games and found themselves in a 28-0 hole vs. Minnesota last week. But that was a Thursday game, just four days removed from a physical win over the Ravens. Now they’ve had more time to prepare and are at home. As a small favorite, they’ll come up big. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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12-18-21 | Marshall v. UL-Lafayette -5.5 | Top | 21-36 | Win | 100 | 272 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ULL The New Orleans Bowl pits Louisiana (12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS) against Marshall (7-5, 6-6). Louisiana is the champion of the Sun Belt, having beaten Appalachian State 24-16 in the SBC Championship Game. The Ragin Cajuns’ only loss was in the season opener vs. Texas. So they have won 12 straight games coming into the New Orleans Bowl. Marshall wasn’t nearly successful, losing five times. Four of those Thundering Herd losses were by seven points or less. But we’re still shocked that Louisiana isn’t a bigger favorite Saturday night. This is a de facto home game for them in New Orleans. Marshall lost two of its final three regular season games including the last one by 32 points. A big key here is that the Thundering Herd run defense is very bad. It gives up 245 yards/game on the road. The Louisiana offense, led by QB Levi Lewis, is capable of putting up big points in every game. Marshall QB Wells threw 12 interceptions this year. A final note: Louisiana twice beat App State, who did defeat Marshall. Play LOUISIANA AAA |
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12-18-21 | Patriots +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -106 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW ENGLAND The Colts are actually favored here. While they are a good team and probably better than their 7-6 record, Indy isn’t as good as New England, who is the hottest team in the league. The Patriots opened this season at 2-4. Since then, they have both won and covered seven in a row. Both teams are off byes here. But we like the Patriots defense, which has allowed no more than 13 points in six of those last seven wins. That defense is why the Pats were able to get away with throwing just three passes two Mondays ago in Buffalo. It also helped that they ran for 222 yards. Now it’s not as if the Colts aren’t hot themselves. They’ve won four of five and seven of 10 (two losses in overtime). However, three of their last four wins were over the Jets, Jags and Texans aka the three worst teams in the NFL, New England is on an 8-0 run against Indianapolis. While many of the players have changed, Bill Belichick has been the Patriots’ coach for all of those wins. NE has also won all six of its road games this year. The Colts are only 3-4 here at home. The Patriots should be the favorites in this game. Because they are not, we are definitely “getting down.” Play on NEW ENGLAND AAA |
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12-18-21 | UAB v. BYU -6.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BYU BYU (10-2) will look to cap a successful season on Saturday as they face UAB (8-4) in this year’s Independence Bowl. The Cougars’ only two losses came against Boise State and BYU, back to back, in the middle of the season. They were 5-0 SU vs. Pac 12 teams, including a win over Pac 12 Champion Utah. Having played such a tough schedule and coming in averaging 48.5 points over the last four games, BYU is our call not just to win this game but also to cover the spread. UAB was 0-2 against ranked teams in the regular season and while those two opponents (Georgia, UTSA) lost just twice all year (combined), it’s still worth mentioning because BYU is ranked 13th. The Blazers have not beaten a ranked team since 2011! Also, UAB lost to a bad Rice team and was dominated by Liberty. Other than Georgia, BYU is as good a team as UAB will have faced this year. BYU has faced several teams that are better than UAB and more often than not came out on the winning end. The much stronger resume and the fact that the top unit in this game is the BYU offense have us on the favorite. UAB has just one bowl win EVER while BYU has won three of its last four. UAB is also the most penalized team in the country. Play on BYU. AAA |
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12-18-21 | Appalachian State -130 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 38-59 | Loss | -130 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* on APP STATE (ML) The first bowl game off the board on Saturday is Western Kentucky (8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS) taking on Appalachian State (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS). Both teams lost in their respective Conference Championship Games, WKU to UTSA (C-USA) and App State to Louisiana (Sun Belt). While all of Appalachian State’s losses came away from home, we are confident that the Mountaineers will win the Boca Raton Bowl. Two of those three losses were at Louisiana, a very solid football team. The other loss was by two points to Miami, a game that was decided on a field goal in the last two minutes. The key for the Mountaineers is a defense that can slow down prolific QB Bailey Zappe and the Western Kentucky offense. ASU allows only 19.3 points/game. Nine of the 12 teams that they faced did not score more than 25 points. WKU allows 28.7 points/game. That’s key because App State is 10-0 when scoring at least 27 points. At one point this year, Western Kentucky lost four straight games. They then proceeded to beat up on some bad Conference USA teams to make it to the Championship Game. Appalachian State has never lost a bowl game in six tries and the Sun Belt has dominated C-USA in bowls, winning 10 of the last 13 head to head matchups. Take the money line, just to be safe. Play on APPALACHIAN STATE AAA |
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12-17-21 | Heat -4.5 v. Magic | Top | 115-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Playing shorthanded, the Heat were still able to go to Philadelphia and win the other night. So winning at Orlando here doesn’t seem like a big ask. The Magic are quite bad this year, which was to be expected. But perhaps things have gone even more poorly than anticipated? The team’s record is 5-24 and they have the worst point differential in the league right now. Since Nov 17, the Magic have won just one game. They’ve lost six in a row, which is one shy of the losing streak they were on at the end of November. So it’s 13 losses in the last 14 games. The Heat have taken it to the Magic recently by winning each of the last three matchups, including a 17-point victory back in October. Orlando’s rotation is depleted now, just like Miami’s, the key is we believe the Heat are more apt to deal with the absences. Miami has won three of its last four games, beating Milwaukee, Chicago and Philly, all top tier Eastern Conference teams. Surely they can beat the lowly Magic by more than the oddsmakers are asking for here. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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12-17-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Northern Illinois OVER 62 | Top | 47-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Northern Illinois was perhaps as lucky as lucky can be in 2021. The Huskies won seven games by eight (points) or less, four of those wins coming by a total of five points including THREE one-point victories. People who measure this sort of stuff deemed NIU the luckiest team in all of College Football this year. The Huskies’ opponent in the Cure Bowl is 10-2 Coastal Carolina, a team that had an unbeaten regular season last year. A 23-3 SU record over a two-year span deserves to be marveled at and it’s why the Chanticleers are such heavy favorites on Friday. But what we like in the Cure Bowl is the Over. Coastal is averaging over 40 points and almost 500 yards per game, so they are surely capable of doing the “heavy lifting” in this one as far as points are concerned. Especially going against a NIU defense that surrenders 448.3 yards/game. But let’s not discount what the Northern Illinois offense is capable of doing. They’ve scored 30 or more in five of their last six games, including 41 in the MAC Championship vs. Kent State. More often than not, very little defense is played in these “early” bowl games. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-17-21 | St Bonaventure v. Virginia Tech OVER 129.5 | Top | 49-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER St. Bonaventure and Virginia Tech take the floor Friday for an afternoon tipoff in the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC. The Bonnies are 8-2 while Va Tech is 7-4. But despite the superior won-loss record, St. Bonaventure is the underdog in this game. They are just 3-6 ATS, including 0-5 L5 games. While perhaps not all that trustworthy plus the points, the Bonnies have been doing plenty of scoring of late. They’ve averaged 77.8 points in those last five contests, even after being held to just 64 in a loss to UConn last Saturday. That loss to UConn saw them shoot a season-low 38.7% from the field. That was after shooting a season-high 60% in a win over Loyola MD in the previous game. Kyle Lofton, the Bonnies’ leading scorer and part of an all-senior starting lineup, has missed the last three games. But he returned to practice on Monday. Va Tech, like St. Bonaventure, rates in the Top 50 in offensive efficiency. The Hokies have also had their struggles recently, dropping four of their last six games. They too shot it poorly last time out. We’re quite confident that St. Bonaventure, who is 9-2-1 Over off their previous 12 losses, will score a solid number of points today. The total is low and Va Tech is 7-3-1 Over L11 neutral site games. We see this going Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Chargers | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC Kansas City has won its last six games and it’s been the defense leading the charge. The Chiefs have allowed just 10.8 points/game during the six-game win streak with no opponent scoring more than 17 on them. The last three weeks have seen KC give up exactly nine points in every game. It’s also on a 4-0 ATS run at the betting window. Tonight’s game shapes up as the biggest of the year. The Chiefs have revenge for a 30-24 loss back in Week 3. If they win tonight, then it’s a two-game lead in the AFC West. But if they lose, they’re tied with the Chargers and would lose the tiebreak. We believe in KC, not just because of the defense, but also Patrick Mahomes. Despite having what is considered a “down year,” Mahomes is still fifth in the league with 3,642 passing yards. The Chiefs put up 48 points last week on the Raiders. They were -4 in turnovers in the first meeting with the Chargers and got outscored 16-7 in the fourth quarter. That turnover margin negated a 437-352 edge in total yards and 33-21 edge in first downs. The Chiefs have won seven straight road games over the Chargers, who have the worst home field advantage in the sport. On the COVID front, LA could be without 2-3 starting offensive linemen. Look for Kansas City to get its revenge tonight and keep rolling. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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12-16-21 | Jackson State v. Drake -15 | Top | 65-70 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DRAKE Drake looks to cover the spread for the first time since 11/14! The Bulldogs are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games, although they’ve won four of them straight up. The level of competition has been stronger than what they’ll face here, a Jackson State team that’s 2-8 and has been to less than 40 points in two different games. The schedule has been murderous so far for Jackson State as they have played nothing but true road games. This is the 11th in a row to start the year as well as the third in the last five days. The Tigers have to be running out gas at this point. They’ve done a decent job of covering the spread (7-3 ATS), but at some point a team has nothing left to give. That’s what we expect the case will be tonight for the road team. Jackson State only averages 56.3 points/game. Drake is averaging 81.3 points/game at home and at some point the Bulldogs HAVE to cover the spread. Why not tonight? Play on DRAKE AAA |
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12-16-21 | Pistons v. Pacers UNDER 211 | Top | 113-122 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Indiana lost last night despite Milwaukee having seven players, Giannis Antetokounmpo among them, ruled out because of COVID-19. Not only did the Pacers lose to the undermanned Bucks, they did so by 15 points, a very embarrassing result. The loss leaves the Pacers at 12-18 SU (15-14-1 ATS) and ahead of only two teams in the East - Orlando and Detroit. They face the Pistons tonight. Little has gone right in the Motor City this season for a Pistons team that is 4-22 and has lost 12 in a row. They have the worst SU record in the NBA, although they are a slightly more respectable 12-14 ATS. Under is our call for this one as that’s how all six division games for the Pistons have ended up this season. They’ve averaged only 87.8 points in those contests. Detroit is arguably the worst offensive team in the league as it shoots just 41% overall and 31% from three. The Under is 3-0 in Indiana’s last three games as well. Last night’s game was the highest scoring of the three, but still only 213 combined points were scored and that was because of Milwaukee. The Under is 5-0 this season when the Pacers are in the second night of a back to back and when these teams met back on November 17th, the final score was 97-89 (Pistons won!) Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-16-21 | Golden Knights -171 v. Devils | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VEGAS Vegas goes for its third win in a row tonight as they pay a visit to New Jersey. While the Golden Knights are in solid shape right now, the Devils are not. The home team has lost seven of eight as well as three in a row. The Devils have given up 10 goals in the last two games while the Golden Knights have scored 10 goals in the last two games. New Jersey has lost 11 of the 15 times they’ve faced a team with a winning record. The Knights are 17-11 with 34 points and now is the time to make a move in the division with the two Alberta teams both struggling. Lots of illness right now with the Devils, COVID and non-COVID, and to add insult to injury they’ve allowed short-handed goals in each of the last two games. Vegas has no problems scoring. They’ve tallied 28 goals in the last six games. Play on VEGAS AAA |
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12-15-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Ducks -147 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ANAHEIM Not many expected to see the Anaheim Ducks leading the Pacific Division, but here we are in mid-December and the team has 37 points, which has them on top. The Ducks are coming off a successful five-game road trip out East. Their only loss in the last four games was 1-0 to Pittsburgh. Now five of the team’s last eight games have gone past regulation. But the 1-0 loss to the Pens is the only time the Ducks have been beaten in regulation during that stretch. It should be an easy two points tonight when the Ducks host the expansion Kraken. As you probably expected, the Kraken have struggled in their maiden season. They are last in the Pacific Division and are allowing the second most goals per game in the league. This is a rare chance to fade Seattle off a win as they played last night and beat San Jose 3-1. Fading this team off a win seems like a sound idea, especially when they’re not rested. This is the first time all season that the Kraken have been in that situation. Seattle has multiple players out with COVID, one of them top line center Yanni Gourde. The Ducks are simply a better team than the Kraken, which they already proved once with a 7-4 win up in Seattle last month. Play on ANAHEIM. AAA |
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12-15-21 | Wolves v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 124-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Denver has a 12-game win streak over Minnesota that dates back to the 2018-19 season. They swept the last three season series and won 93-91 (as a 1.5-point dog) in the Twin Cities back in October. Now the Nuggets are dealing with a lot of illness and injuries at the moment. But that didn’t prevent them from building a 33-point lead over Washington in the last game. Before that, they went to San Antonio and won by 15. Be aware that the game vs. the Wizards only got close after Nikola Jokic got ejected. Denver has been outstanding at the defensive end in home games this season, giving up only 99.4 points/game. The Timberwolves come in shooting just 40.4 percent their last five games and 42.4% for the year. Prior to a 116-111 win in Portland the other night, the T’wolves had dropped five in a row, three by double digits. Their recent defensive efforts have been terrible with eight of the last nine games seeing them give up 110 or more points. Lay the points in this one. Play on DENVER AAA |
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12-15-21 | Morehead State v. Xavier OVER 135.5 | Top | 63-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Xavier comes into tonight ranked #25 in the country and has a 9-1 SU record. Their only loss was to an Iowa State team that’s still undefeated. Since that loss, the Musketeers have not just won - but also covered - five straight games. The most impressive win took place on Saturday when they smoked rival Cincinnati 83-63. We had the Over in that game and will play this game the same way. This time the Musketeers are hosting Morehead State. The Eagles are 6-4 on the year after losing 82-75 at East Tenn State on Saturday. While they may rank first among Ohio Valley Conference teams in scoring defense, slowing down Xavier should be a tougher challenge. The Musketeers have averaged 83.5 points their last four games. Assuming Xavier, at the very least, hits its season average of 75.8 points per game, then all we would need from Morehead State is 62 points, which is below their season average. Asking two teams to hit their season average in points per game doesn’t seem like asking for “too much.” If it happens, then we’ve easily got our Over, a bet which has hit 11 of the previous 16 games where Xavier has been off an ATS win. AAA |
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12-14-21 | Warriors -4.5 v. Knicks | Top | 105-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GSW Steph Curry will look to become the NBA’s all-time leader in three-pointers made when his Warriors visit New York on Tuesday. Curry is only two threes shy of Ray Allen’s record entering this game. Considering he made five last night, it would seem like a lock that history will be made tonight in Madison Square Garden. You have to figure Curry’s teammates will want to make the record-setting day a victorious one as well. Laying only a few points here to the struggling Knicks seems to be a “no-brainer.” This line is relatively short because Golden State was in action Monday. They beat Indiana 102-100, but it was the third game in a row where they did not cover the spread. Seeing as the Warriors lead the league in point differential, a win by more than what the oddsmakers are calling for tonight doesn’t sound so far-fetched. The Knicks aren’t as good as the Pacers. NY has dropped three straight games and six of its last seven. At home, they lost by 15 to the Bucks on Sunday. It was their third double digit loss in the past five games. Don’t overthink this one. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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12-14-21 | Northwestern State v. LSU -34.5 | Top | 49-89 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LSU LSU is still undefeated and should win in a romp tonight. Now you probably already knew that by looking at this pointspread. It is quite high. But Northwestern State truly has zero shot at being competitive in Baton Rouge. The Demons are 2-8, both wins coming in non-lined games. They beat Dallas Christian Saturday. But not all the news was good. A flu bug has made its way through the Northwestern State locker room, affecting both players and coaches. Even at full strength, Northwestern State could not compete here. With players out, tonight’s game should get ugly in a hurry. There have been three games this season that the Demons have lost by 30 or more points. One was to Houston, the only top 15 team they’ve faced. LSU isn’t in the top 15, but probably should be as they’re off to their best start in over 20 years at 9-0. The Tigers’ six home wins have been by more than 30 points/game and they’ve covered the spread every time. They should mirror Houston’s 41 point win over Northwestern State and continue their climb up the rankings. Play on LSU AAA |
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12-13-21 | Suns -2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 95-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHOENIX Thanks to Golden State’s loss Saturday night, Phoenix (21-4) now has the best record in the NBA. The Suns are on the road tonight, facing the Clippers. This is obviously a big game for both teams. But with the Suns having won 20 of their last 21 games, how can you not like them laying such a short number? Defensively, they are one of the best teams in the NBA, allowing only 104.4 points/game and 43.4% shooting. Only Golden State allows fewer points per possession. The Suns are also a top five offensive team in the league. This is where they are vastly superior to the Clippers, who are only 24th in offensive efficiency. Phoenix doesn’t have Devin Booker right now, but the Clippers are playing without both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. This is going to be the Clippers’ 9th game in the last 16 days. Phoenix has had a much “lighter schedule” of late. The only team to beat the Suns since October is Golden State. Without George and Leonard, the Clippers can’t do what the Warriors did. LA is only 6-12 ATS at home this year. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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12-13-21 | Cal Poly v. Portland -4.5 | Top | 77-78 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PORTLAND Portland is looking to bounce back from an upset loss at the hands of VMI ten days ago. The Pilots were five point favorites but lost to the Keydets 90-82. Before that, they had won seven of eight with the only loss coming by three to Montana State. They’d also covered five straight going into the VMI matchup. We like the home team here because they are well rested while visiting Cal Poly is playing a second road game in three days. Cal Poly was able to shoot 54.5% from three in its 61-58 upset over Portland State on Sunday. The Mustangs went into that game as 3.5 point underdogs. It was their second close game in a row after losing by one at San Diego on December 5th. This will be CP’s fourth consecutive road game to start the month. The win at Portland State on Saturday was the first win on the trip. Don’t see them winning two in a row as the three-point shooting from the last game can’t be matched (CP shooting only 30% from three for the year) and Portland’s offense (85.2 points/game) is just too much. CP has scored more than 61 only twice against Division I opponents this season. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA RAMS After enduring an 0-3 November (SU and ATS), the Rams had what amounted to a “get well game” last week as they throttled the Jaguars 37-7. That leaves them two games back of the Cardinals in the NFC West and tonight is pretty much a “must win” if the Rams have any hope of winning the division. That’s because they lost the first meeting with Arizona, 37-20, back in Week 4 as a 3.5 point home favorite. Here’s why we think tonight will be different for the Rams. For starters, the Cardinals are just 3-2 since a 7-0 start. Also, while Arizona is 7-0 SU on the road, they are just 3-2 at home. Going back further, the Cards are 4-10 ATS in their previous 14 games as a home favorite. Going into Sunday, any home favorite of three points or less was just 6-13 straight up and against the spread this year in the NFL. Sean McVay was 8-0 ATS vs. the Cardinals prior to the Week 4 loss. Don’t be fooled by the fact Arizona won 33-22 last week. They were outgained 329-257 and had 12 fewer first downs than the Bears. The key to the Cardinals winning at Soldier Field was being +4 in the turnover department. Thanks to roster additions like Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr, the Rams are a stronger team now than they were back in Week 4. This game is more important to them, so we are taking the points. Play on LA RAMS AAA |
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12-13-21 | 76ers v. Grizzlies UNDER 210 | Top | 91-126 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The 76ers and Grizzlies are both coming off wins. In fact, Memphis has won seven of eight since Ja Morant went down with a sprained left knee injury on November 26th. That’s certainly surprising. But maybe not as surprising as what the Sixers pulled off on Saturday, beating Golden State 102-93. That was Philly’s fourth win in its last five games. We’re not sure which team will continue its recent success, but we do like the Under tonight. With Morant out, Memphis has heavily relied on its defense. The 106 points they allowed in the win over Houston Saturday night were actually the most given up in any of those last eight games. In five of those eight games, they’ve held the opponent to 95 or less. Philadelphia holding Golden State to just 93 points is just as impressive as what Memphis has done defensively of late. That was also the fourth time in the last seven games that the Sixers didn’t give up 100 points. The Under is 11-3 for Philly this year when facing a team that has a winning record. Expect a low-scoring affair here. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-12-21 | Bears v. Packers -12.5 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 75 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GREEN BAY Back in Week 6, Green Bay (-5.5) defeated Chicago 24-14 at Soldier Field. It was during that game Packers QB Aaron Rodgers quipped about “owning” the Bears. Rodgers has a point. Only Brett Favre has more wins over Chicago during the Super Bowl era. Favre went 23-13 vs. the Bears in his career. Rodgers might have fewer wins than his predecessor, but has been more profitable to bet on with a 19-6 ATS (21-5 SU) head to head record against the “Monsters of the Midway.” The Bears have won just one game since that Week 6 loss. That was on Thanksgiving against the Lions where they needed a last second field goal to win 16-14. Justin Fields is expected to start Sunday night for Chicago. But honestly who cares? The Bears offense is no better with Fields than it is with Andy Dalton. Lame duck coach Matt Nagy is calling the plays either way. Green Bay is playing at home and coming off the bye. The Pack are 5-0 SU and ATS in Lambeau, scoring 27.8 points/game while allowing just 14.4. In the last two games, GB has scored 31 and 36 points. The Bears have yet to score more than 27 in any game all season and have scored 20 or less a total of eight times. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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12-12-21 | Bills +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO In blustery conditions, the Bills went down 14-10 at the hands of the Patriots Monday night. It’s a loss that leaves them at 7-5 and two games off the pace in the division. Given how this season started, it’s kind of shocking to see Buffalo with five losses right now. Even more strange is that New England was able to win despite attempting only three passes! You can expect Tom Brady and the Bucs to attempt a lot more than that. But fortunately, the Bills’ pass defense ranks first in the league in yards allowed per game (165.3) and fewest touchdowns allowed (8). The Bills’ offense won’t have to contend with horrible weather conditions here in Tampa Bay, so look for Josh Allen and the passing attack to be revitalized. Even after Monday, Buffalo still averages 28.0 points/game, placing them in the top five in the league. Tampa is undefeated at home, but they’ve previously hosted the Giants, Bears, Dolphins, Falcons and Cowboys. Only the Cowboys have a winning record out of that group and the Bucs beat them by just two points. Buffalo has been an underdog only one other time this season. It was against Kansas City, a game they won 38-20. The perception right now is that the Bucs are a lot better than the Bills. But we don’t agree with that and will take the points. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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12-12-21 | Villanova v. Baylor OVER 138.5 | Top | 36-57 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER We’ve got what looks to be a heck of a showdown in College Basketball on Sunday as #2 Baylor takes on #6 Villanova in the headliner of the Big 12-Big East Battle. Baylor, last year’s National Champs, is still undefeated at 9-0. They average 84 points/game. The schedule hasn’t all been all that challenging up to this point, but the Bears have scored at least 75 in every game except the one vs. Virginia Commonwealth. They put up a season-high 99 last time out. Villanova happens to be off its season-low point total as they could only manage 67 in a win over Syracuse earlier in the week. But the Wildcats, who are 7-2 on the season, are averaging 78.2 per game. Look for these two national powers to play a high-scoring game on Sunday, much higher scoring than their meeting in the Sweet 16 last March when they combined to go 6 of 36 from three-point range. The Over is 14-4 in Baylor’s last 18 games in Waco. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-12-21 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team OVER 48 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -102 | 67 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Washington has gotten back into the NFC East race by winning four straight games. They are also 4-0 ATS during that time as they’ve been the underdog in all four wins. So this is quite the run that the Football Team is on right now. On Sunday, they can further narrow the division lead as first place Dallas comes to town. The Cowboys, coming off back to back Thursday games, are 8-4 and still have a two-game lead over Washington. Last week saw Dallas go to New Orleans and win 27-17 as a 6.5 point favorite. That came on the heels of a shocking overtime loss on Thanksgiving to the Raiders. The final score of that Thanksgiving Day loss was 36-33. We expect this one to be high scoring as well. The Cowboys offense is finally healthy. Pay close attention to the status of RB Pollard, who missed practice on Wednesday, but even if he can’t go the team still has Ezekiel Elliott to hand the ball off to. Washington’s last two games both ended up as 17-15 finals, but they moved the ball more than you might think. The Over has hit 9 of the previous 11 times these teams have met. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-12-21 | Charles Oliveira +150 v. Dustin Poirier | Top | 1-0 | Win | 150 | 79 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Oliveira Charles Oliveira (31-8) will step inside the cage to defend his UFC Lightweight Title against Dustin Poirier (28-6) Saturday at UFC 269. Oliveira is the underdog to a fighter who has beaten Connor McGregor twice. But we think the champ is being underrated. His last loss was in 2017. Since that last loss, Oliveira has rattled off nine consecutive victories, eight of them coming by stoppage. No fighter in UFC history has more wins by submission! Oliveira is known for starting fast and he will try to get this fight to the ground ASAP. Poirier was taken down a total of 11 times in fights vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov and Dan Hooker. The Khabib fight was obviously a loss. We think this one will be as well. Play on OLIVEIRA AAA |
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12-11-21 | Warriors -2.5 v. 76ers | Top | 93-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GSW The Warriors are short road favorites tonight in Philadelphia and we’ve got to lay the points. Golden State is clearly the best team in basketball right now. There’s not a single metric that suggests otherwise. They’ve lost only four games, three by five or less and the other to a Suns team that was on an 18-game win streak. They immediately avenged that loss to the Suns with a 22-point win. The Warriors last two wins have also been by double digits. They beat Orlando by 31 and Portland by 10. Those were at home, but the Warriors are also 7-2 on the road. Golden State is outscoring teams by basically 13 points/game. So that’s why we’ve got zero hesitation about laying this number. Philadelphia hasn’t covered any of its previous three games. Twice they could barely beat an undermanned Charlotte team and then they got crushed by Utah here at home. The Jazz are probably the second best team in the league right now. What Thursday told us is that Philly is not ready for this level of competition. The Sixers aren’t just 3-8 ATS at home, they are only 5-6 straight up. Steph Curry could set the NBA record for most career three-pointers made tonight. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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12-11-21 | Cincinnati v. Xavier OVER 132 | Top | 63-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER City rivals Cincinnati and Xavier renew acquaintances on Saturday evening. Cincinnati is 7-2 with their losses coming to Arkansas and Monmouth. There’s no reason for the Bearcats to hang their heads over losing to Arkansas, the #12 ranked team in the country, on a neutral court. The loss to Monmouth was a little more embarrassing, though it came by only two points and Monmouth has the best ATS record in the country right now. But what matters most to fans of Cincy basketball is their recent futility against Xavier. They’ve lost seven of the last ten matchups and are 0-5 ATS here at Xavier. The Musketeers bring an 8-1 SU record into Saturday. Their only loss was to undefeated Iowa State. Expect bad blood and lots of scoring Saturday night. Xavier just went for 96 points in its last game, a total beatdown of Ball State. The Over is 4-0 the previous four times the Musketeers have been off a win that was by more than 20 points. This total seems low for two teams that average more than 70 points/game. Part of that is the last six Cincinnati games have all stayed Under. But the last five all had totals higher than this one. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-11-21 | Navy v. Army -7 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARMY The annual Army-Navy game goes down in East Rutherford, NJ on Saturday. This rivalry was once owned by Navy, who had 12 straight wins over Army at one point. But the Black Knights have turned the tables, winning four of the last five meetings. It was a 15-0 Army shutout last year. This year, there’s really little doubt as to who the better team has been. Army enters at 8-3. They’ve won their last four games. Two of three losses were to P5 teams Wake Forest and Wisconsin. Navy has played some challenging games as well. The difference is they are 3-8. The Midshipmen did cover four of their last five games, but it’s hard to like them as a single-digit underdog. They’ve been a double digit dog seven times and favored only once. Army is better on both sides of the ball, averaging 15 points/game more on offense and allowing about 7 points/game less on defense. The teams may play similar styles of football. But Army is just better. Play on Army AAA |
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12-11-21 | Penn State v. Michigan State -10 | Top | 64-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICH STATE Fresh off handing Minnesota its first loss, Michigan State returns to East Lansing to play host Penn State on Saturday. The Spartans come in at 8-2. They were seven-point favorites on Wednesday, despite the fact their opponents were undefeated. Consider this a “lesson learned” as we made the mistake of fading Sparty at Minnesota. Tom Izzo's team came out red hot and took a 37-24 lead into halftime. Penn State is not nearly as strong as the Golden Gophers, so with this game being a home game, expect MSU to roll. Penn State’s only other true road game this year resulted in a 25-point loss at UMass. Since then, they are just 4-3. The Nittany Lions lost the Big 10 opener 76-64 to Ohio State before bouncing back with an easy win over Wagner earlier this week. This is a rivalry that Michigan State has dominated with wins in 39 of the 48 all-time meetings. The Spartans already have four wins over Top 40 teams and are 4th in the country in defensive efficiency. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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12-10-21 | Red Wings v. Avalanche OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 108 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER We predicted that the Red Wings wouldn’t fare well last night in St. Louis and sure enough they lost 6-2. We don’t like their chances tonight in Colorado either. Now we can’t possibly justify taking the Avalanche on the money line here, but fortunately there’s the total. With the likelihood of the Red Wings again giving up lots of goals, Over has to be the play here. The Avs are averaging 4.3 goals/game. That’s the highest average in the league. Furthermore, the average jumps to 4.7 goals/game when the Avs are home and they also are coming off a pair of road wins where they scored seven times in both games. There have been seven times in the last ten games where Colorado scored five or more goals. They can send this one Over pretty much by themselves. Detroit will probably add a goal (or two) as well. The Red Wings last four games have all gone Over the total and they are 5-0 Over this season when playing on back to back nights. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-10-21 | Pistons +5.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 93-109 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DET The Pistons have lost 10 in a row. But at least they were able to force overtime in their last game, which they lost at the buzzer. The 119-116 loss to the Wizards marked the fourth time that the Pistons lost by five or less during the current losing skid. Tonight they are catching a decent number from a New Orleans team that certainly can’t be labeled as “good.” The Pelicans also lost in overtime Wednesday, 120-114 to Denver, leaving them with the same number of losses that Detroit has (20). We think that this is a good spot to take the points as Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last six games and they were favored one of the two times they failed to cover the spread. This is just the third time this season that New Orleans will be favored to win a game. They’ve gone 0-2 ATS the previous two times, losing both games outright. The Pelicans are also 0-7 ATS this season when facing a team that has a losing record. We’ve got to play against the home team on sheer principle in this one. New Orleans should never be this large of a favorite. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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12-10-21 | DePaul v. Louisville -7.5 | Top | 62-55 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on L'ville DePaul is off to a pretty impressive 7-1 start. The Blue Demons’ one loss came against Loyola Chicago and that was by only four points. Following that first loss, they rebounded with an impressive 20-point win over Duquesne earlier this week. The Blue Demons’ ATS record matches their SU record as the one time they failed to cover was in an 84-80 win over Western Illinois where they were 9.5 point favorites. Tonight they are underdogs for just the third time this season. While it may seem tempting to take DePaul plus the points in this situation, they are outclassed playing at Louisville. The Cardinals have dominated the head to head series with the Blue Demons, winning 21 of the last 23 meetings. They’re 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS against them as the home team. L’ville has two losses but has also played a much more challenging schedule than DePaul has. In their last game, the Cardinals went to NC State and won the ACC opener. They also hold wins over Mississippi State and Maryland in tournament play. Play on LOUISVILLE AAA |
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12-09-21 | Iowa -5.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 53-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on IOWA We’ve got an unranked team laying points on the road to a Top 25 opponent that’s also undefeated. That’s quite the statement by the linesmakers. And we agree that Iowa is the better side in this Thursday night matchup. Give Iowa State credit for being 8-0, especially since they’ve been underdogs in three of the previous four games. They pulled upsets over Xavier, Memphis and Creighton. But none of those teams are as strong as the Hawkeyes, who are seeking to end a two-game losing streak tonight. Iowa was 7-0 before facing Purdue, who is now the top ranked team in the country. That was a two-point game in the final three minutes. Then it was a four-point loss to Illinois on Monday. Both those Big 10 opponents are much stronger than Iowa State. Not to be disrespectful to the Cyclones, but the only reason they are ranked is because they are undefeated. They’ve yet to face a team as good as Iowa. This is going to be their first loss of the season and we will lay the points. Play on IOWA AAA |
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12-09-21 | Steelers +3.5 v. Vikings | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PIT These are two teams desperately needing a win as each tries to remain relevant in their respective conference’s playoff race. There’s no doubt that the Steelers are in better shape right now at 6-5-1 and coming off a surprise 20-19 win over the Ravens. While Pittsburgh now has to hit the road on a short week, they are facing a 5-7 Vikings team that just lost to the Lions and has two key playmakers on offense banged up. WR Thielen will not play for Minnesota tonight. RB Dalvin Cook reportedly will, but we don’t think he’ll be all that effective after suffering a dislocated left shoulder 11 days ago. You’ve got to think this will end up being a close game. The Steelers and Vikings have combined to play 24 games this season. Of those, 19 have been one-score games. That’s one of the reasons we’re taking the points tonight. The other is that the Steelers have a much better defense. They’ve allowed 20 points or less in half of their games. Minnesota has kept only three opponents under 20 points and over the last seven games they’ve allowed 28 or more five times. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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12-09-21 | Lakers v. Grizzlies UNDER 224.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER With scoring down this season in the NBA, this total sticks out as being pretty “high.” Memphis is missing its top scorer Ja Morant, so we’ve got every reason to expect they won’t be scoring a ton of points tonight. Yes, they had a 152 point outburst against Oklahoma City without Morant. But looking at the last five games, the Grizzlies have been held below 100 points three times and - other than the OKC game - have never scored more than 105. Defensively, things have been solid. Over those same last five games, the Grizzlies are allowing an average of just 90.8 points with Dallas’ 104 last night being the most given up. This will be the first time that Memphis has had to play a back to back since Morant got injured. The Lakers haven’t had much problem scoring as of late with five straight games of 50% shooting or better. But against the defensive-minded Grizzlies, that streak is likely to end tonight. Three of the Lakers’ previous five games came against either Detroit or Sacramento and only one was on the road. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-09-21 | Red Wings v. Blues -162 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 7* on STL The Red Wings are currently in fourth place in the Atlantic Division with 29 points. But there’s a seven-point gap between them and the top three teams in the division (Florida, Toronto, Tampa Bay). Not only do we not expect Detroit to catch those teams, they are quite likely to take a tumble down the standings. Look no further than their -10 goal differential as reason for that line of thinking. The Red Wings have been a pretty lucky team recently. During a five-game win streak, which is now over, they had four one-goal wins and three of those required overtime or a shootout. The win streak ended with a 5-2 loss to Nashville on Tuesday. Expect another loss in St. Louis tonight. The Blues lost in Detroit 4-2 back on November 24th, so they’re out for revenge. After four hard-fought games against Tampa Bay and Florida (played both teams twice), this should be a relatively easy game for the Blues, who are 8-3-1 on home ice so far. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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12-09-21 | Purdue -12 v. Rutgers | Top | 68-70 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PURDUE For the first time in program history, Purdue will take the court as the #1 ranked team in the country. That obviously puts the proverbial “bulls-eye” on the Boilermakers’ back, but expect THEM to be the more motivated group on Thursday night as they travel to Piscataway to face Rutgers. Not only does Purdue want to prove that it deserves it’s #1 ranking, but they’ve surprisingly lost the last three times they’ve taken on the Scarlet Knights. Coach Matt Painter has made sure to remind his team of the three-game losing streak. Rutgers is just simply no match for a motivated Purdue team that is #1 in the country in offensive efficiency, averaging 90.5 points/game. The Scarlet Knights just lost to Illinois by 35, a game where they were dominated on the boards. Being only 4-4 has to be a major disappointment to coach Steve Pikiell as Rutgers was the favorite in every game but the one at Illinois. Star guard Baker is still dealing with a hamstring injury and a flu bug has hit the team as well. Purdue should roll here. Play on PURDUE AAA |
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12-08-21 | Blazers v. Warriors OVER 217 | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It feels like 2014-19 all over again as Golden State is leaving no doubt as to who the best team in the league is. Fresh off a 126-95 thrashing of Orlando, the Warriors are 20-4 on the year. That’s tied with Phoenix for the best record in the league, but the Warriors just recently ended the Suns’ 18-game win streak. Steph Curry is now just 16 three-points away from breaking Ray Allen’s record for most in NBA history. Curry has expressed a desire to break the record TONIGHT. Not sure if that’s possible (no one has ever made 16 threes in one game), but Curry did hit seven on his way to 31 points against the Magic. Golden State is third in the league, scoring 113.6 points/game. Their scoring average bumps up to 116.8 in home games. Tonight they host a Portland team still playing without Damian Lillard. Now 1-6 in their last seven games, the Blazers are clearly struggling without Lillard. But we expect them to put up a decent number of points in this game. They’ll have to because they are one of the league’s worst defensive teams, giving up 116.8 points/game on the road. The Over is 25-12 in the past 37 meetings between these two teams. There were 221 total points scored in the first meeting this season. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-08-21 | Bruins v. Canucks OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Vancouver just made sweeping changes throughout the organization, firing their coach, GM and several assistants. In their first game under new coach Bruce Boudreau, the Canucks responded by posting their first shutout of the season, beating the Kings 4-0. Don’t go expecting a second straight shutout though. Wednesday’s opponent has gone Under in each of its last four games, but the Canucks are 3-1 Over the last three seasons immediately following a shutout win. Boston is the team that pays a visit tonight. They are starting a three-game trek through Western Canada at a most inopportune time as multiple players are out due to non-COVID related illnesses. But those absences are somewhat offset by top-line forward Brad Marchand returning to the lineup tonight. The Bruins are 3-0 Over this season when playing with three or more days of rest. Five of Vancouver’s last seven games have ended with the winning team scoring four or more goals. The Over is 7-3 the last 10 times these teams have faced off. Play on the OVER AAA |
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12-08-21 | Michigan State v. Minnesota +7 | Top | 75-67 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINN There are still 12 undefeated teams left in College Basketball. That number is likely to decrease very soon. Five of those 12 unbeatens are in action tonight, two (Arizona & Wyoming) against one another. San Francisco (9-0) is favored, but you’ve also got Weber State (8-0) and Minnesota (7-0) taking the court as underdogs. While this game vs. Michigan State may seem like a logical end point for Minnesota’s unbeaten start, what we are seeing here is a great opportunity to grab the points. At home, the Golden Gophers shouldn’t be getting this many points from a Michigan State team that has two losses. Now those losses were to Kansas and Baylor, so you can’t really fault Sparty for not being unbeaten like Minnesota still is. But the Gophers did just win two tough road games against Pitt and Mississippi State. They were 11.5 point dogs at Miss State and led by as much as 14 points. Being back home - where they are giving up just 49.7 points/game - is huge for this team. Michigan State lost by 25 points here last season. Take the points with Minnesota. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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12-08-21 | Wizards -6.5 v. Pistons | Top | 119-116 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASH Washington desperately needs a win here. The Wizards have lost their last three games and played pretty poorly against Indiana Monday night. While they only ended up losing by six points, the Wizards let the Pacers shoot 52.4 percent and were behind by 10 after the first quarter. At no point in the game did Washington hold a lead of more than three points. Now when you’re this desperate for a win, looking across the court and seeing the Detroit Pistons is definitely a good thing. The Pistons have the worst record in the league (4-19) and are on a nine-game losing streak. Four of their five starters are either rookies or in their second year in the league. Perhaps a new low was established on Monday when the Pistons blew an 18-point lead and lost to Oklahoma City. That Thunder team was coming off a record-setting 73-point loss. Detroit was actually favored to beat OKC. It was only the second time this season that they were favored to win a game. They’re not favored here, but the line is short enough that we will lay it. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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12-07-21 | Lightning -1.5 v. Canadiens | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TB -1.5 In every division across the NHL, we’re starting to see the top teams put a little “separation” between them and the rest of the pack. It’s definitely no surprise to see Tampa Bay firmly in the top three in the Atlantic. If anything, that’s to be expected as the Lightning are looking to make it three straight Stanley Cups this year. Tonight is a rematch from the last Cup Finals as the Lightning head to Montreal. Yes, that previous sentence seems strange to write as these two clubs are back in the same division this season. Last year, because of the pandemic, they were split up and that’s how they got around to meeting for the richest prize in the sport. It only took five games for TB to dismiss the Habs last summer. They’ve won 12 of the previous 15 meetings and we don’t see why they wouldn’t capture the two points tonight. The Lightning roll into Tuesday on a three-game winning streak, most recently defeating the Flyers 7-1. Montreal has lost three in a row and 9 of its last 11 games. Play the puck line in this one as the road team will prevail by at least two goals. Play on TB -1.5 (PUCK LINE) AAA |
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12-07-21 | Texas Tech v. Tennessee -3.5 | Top | 57-52 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TENNESSEE It’s the Big 12 vs. the SEC on Tuesday as #13 Tennessee takes Texas Tech as part of the “Jimmy V Classic” in New York City. We’re surprised that this line is so low, considering that the Vols are ranked. Also, Texas Tech is coming off its first loss of the season, 72-68 at Providence, in what was the Red Raiders first true road game. That was six days ago. Tennessee played over the weekend as they went to Colorado and won 69-54 as six-point favorites. The Vols only loss so far was to #6 Villanova. All six of their wins have been by double digits. We figure this one will be as well. Tennessee is third in the country in defensive efficiency right now and just held Colorado to 34.5% shooting on Saturday. Texas Tech does force a lot of turnovers, but also turns it over a lot themselves. Whereas the Vols have two quality wins already (North Carolina, Colorado), the Red Raiders have nothing of the sort. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUF Two of the best teams in the NFL face off Monday night as the 7-4 Bills host the 8-4 Patriots. The Patriots are the hottest team in the league right now. They’ve won and covered six straight games with five of those victories coming by at least 18 points. But tonight is easily the Patriots’ toughest matchup of the season, let alone since they got hot. Having not played since Thanksgiving, Buffalo has had extra time to prepare for this AFC East showdown. Conversely, New England is yet to have a bye (they are off next week). So that would really seem to favor the home team. We know that the Patriots are 5-0 on the road, but those wins have been against the Jets, Texans, Chargers, Panthers and Falcons. Only one of those five (Chargers) has a winning record. Three of the other four are among the worst teams in the league. With a visit to Tampa Bay scheduled for next week and a future visit to New England also on the docket, tonight is “must win” for the Bills at home. It should be a fired-up crowd and after being embarrassed (41-15 by the Colts) in their last home game, Buffalo is going to look to make a “statement” Monday night. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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12-06-21 | Cavs v. Bucks -7 | Top | 104-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 10* on MIL Cleveland has been one of the real surprising teams in the NBA so far, but we don’t like their chances at Milwaukee tonight. The Cavs took a one-point loss, at home, against Utah on Sunday. That saw them battle back from a 15-point deficit in the fourth quarter, only to come up one bucket short. Now they must hit the road to face another of the league’s top teams, without rest. The Bucks have won 9 of 10 and on Saturday downed Miami by a score of 124-102. That was despite not having Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has missed the last two games. But the defense from the NBA Champions continues to be sensational as only one of their last ten opponents has been able to shoot better than 43.5%. Milwaukee has beaten Cleveland seven straight times and tonight we look for them to end the Cavs’ 7-game ATS win streak. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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12-06-21 | Avalanche v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Avalanche, who were a preseason favorite to win the Stanley Cup, have stumbled a bit to start the season. Their 26 points has them tied for fifth in the Central Division. However, we will point out two things. One is that they’ve played three fewer games than every team in the division besides Dallas. Two is that a +14 goal differential is top eight in the NHL. So there’s probably nothing to worry about in Colorado, especially since the Avs recently went on a six-game win streak. But there is plenty to worry about in Philadelphia where the Flyers have lost eight in a row to fall back into second to last place in the Metropolitan. The Flyers were beaten 7-1 last night by the Lightning in a dreadful defensive effort. Now, with Colorado having allowed a total of 14 goals in its two losses, they too have little to brag about at the defensive end. The Avalanche gave up eight goals in a loss to the Maple Leafs and six goals in Saturday’s OT loss to the Senators. What you should expect from this matchup on Monday night is plenty of goals. If there’s one positive thing we can say about the Flyers right now, it’s that their power play numbers are due to improve. They’ve scored just three times in their last 40 chances with the man advantage. That seems a little ridiculous to us. Play the OVER AAA |
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12-06-21 | Illinois v. Iowa OVER 151.5 | Top | 87-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This is the second tough game in a row for Iowa as they begin the Big 10 portion of the schedule. They lost to Purdue, who is perhaps the best team in the country right now, 77-70 on Friday. But the Hawkeyes managed to keep it close despite not having leading scorer Keegan Murray (24.6 points/game), who sat because of a bad ankle. Murray, the nation’s second leading scorer, is expected to be back in the lineup tonight as the Hawkeyes host Illinois. Having Murray back and getting this game in Iowa City should result in Iowa scoring at a rate similar to what we saw from them in their first six games of the season. Even after facing Virginia and Purdue on the road, the Hawkeyes are still averaging 91.0 points/game. That’s third most in the country. At home, they average 97.2 points/game! We can’t say they’ll score that many tonight, but they will score enough to get this one Over the total. Defensively, the Hawkeyes aren’t great, which is a problem facing Illinois when Kofi Cockburn is in the lineup. Cockburn is right behind Murray, averaging 24.0 point/game. He’s missed some games, but the Fighting Illini still are averaging 76.7 points/game and have topped that number in each of their last three games, scoring 94, 82 and 86. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-05-21 | Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 47 | Top | 9-22 | Loss | -108 | 36 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Flexed into the Sunday night position, the Chiefs host the Broncos this week. Kansas City is coming off a bye. Coach Andy Reid is usually deadly in this situation, going 14-8 ATS, but that includes 1-3 the last four years. The Chiefs were playing well going into the bye, winning four straight with the defense surprisingly leading the way by allowing just 11.75 points/game. They are facing a Denver team that has seen the Under hit in 9 of 11 games this year. The O/U has come down for this game, but we’re going with the Over as KC scored 41 in its last appearance on “Sunday Night Football.” Denver put up 28 last week in a surprising win over the Chargers. That win puts the Broncos one game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West and tied with the Chargers and Raiders. It was the second time in three weeks that Denver scored 28 or more. While it looks like most are expecting a relatively low-scoring affair, we’re going the other way. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-05-21 | Wizards v. Raptors -1.5 | Top | 90-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TOR The Wizards and Raptors have already played twice.The road team won both times. Washington won here in Toronto on Opening Night 98-83. It wasn’t nearly as low scoring when the Raptors won in D.C 109-100 on Dec 3. This time we like the home team to prevail. While the Raptors have struggled on their home floor, going just 3-8, they did beat Milwaukee here on Thursday. That was a better result than what Washington did on Friday, losing to Cleveland 116-101. The Raptors have defended well recently, holding the last two opponents under 40% shooting. The Wizards haven’t been all that impressive away from home, going 4-7 ATS and scoring 101.8 points/game. Defensively, they were ravaged by the pick and roll against Cleveland. So Toronto has its blueprint for success. Playing their fourth straight game at home, the Raptors should have no excuses tonight. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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12-05-21 | 49ers v. Seahawks UNDER 46 | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 9* on the UNDER The 49ers have not only won three straight, but also four of five SU and ATS. In Week 12, they held off the Vikings for a 34-26 win and covered the four-point spot. This run has gotten the Niners back into playoff contention as they are now 6-5 on the season. The Seahawks are headed in the opposite direction. Monday’s 17-15 loss in Washington was Seattle’s third straight setback, leaving them at 3-8 overall. The Under has hit in five straight Seahawks’ games and we think it will be six straight after this NFC West clash. Since Russell Wilson returned, the Seattle offense has scored a total of 26 points in three losses. They had only 10 first downs and five straight three-and-outs on MNF. But the defense hasn’t been all that bad, giving up an average of only 15.4 points during the five-game Under run. San Francisco has scored 30 or more in three straight games, but the Seahawks haven’t allowed that many since Week 3. The Under is 6-0 in Seattle’s last six conference games and 13-2 in Wilson’s previous 15 starts. When these teams played in Week 4, it was a 28-13 game (Seattle’s favor) until a late TD + 2 pt conversion from the Niners. This game should see SF control the clock by running the ball, leading to fewer possessions (for both teams). The Niners will be without WR Samuel. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-05-21 | Jaguars v. Rams -12.5 | Top | 7-37 | Win | 100 | 32 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA RAMS We know the Rams have lost three in a row. But we can’t see them struggling to beat a 2-9 Jacksonville outfit that has not cleared 17 points in any of its last five games. Despite being only 1.5 point home dogs, the Jaguars lost last week 21-14 to the Falcons. That was their third straight loss since a stunning 9-6 win over the Bills in Week 9. The Rams' last three losses have all been to winning teams (Titans, 49ers, Packers), which doesn’t make it any better, especially because they closed as favorites in all three games. Going back even further, LA is 0-5 ATS in its last five games. But this has all the makings of a “get well” game for the NFC West contingent. The Jags are second to last in offense at 15.7 points/game. The Rams average 27.2 points/game and that’s when facing better competition than they’ll see on Sunday. Against sub-.500 teams, LA is 5-0 this year with the average win coming by 16.2 points. This is their firs game at home since acquiring Von Miller and Odell Beckham. It should be an inspired effort. Jacksonville has lost 15 straight non-conference games and knows its season is basically “over” at this point. We don’t expect the underdog to put up much resistance in this one. Play on LA RAMS AAA |
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12-05-21 | Arizona -11 v. Oregon State | Top | 90-65 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Arizona is a strong team and should easily be able to defeat Pac 12 rival Oregon State by double digits. At 6-0, the Wildcats are one of 12 unbeaten teams left in College Basketball. They are one of the highest ranked as well with #4 Baylor and #10 Arkansas the only undefeated teams above them in the top 25. The Wildcats haven’t just been winning either. They’ve been blowing out every opponent. Their six wins have been by an average of 33.8 points/game. There was one close game, a four-win over Wichita State, but all others have been by at least 18 points. The last time ‘Zona was on the court, they blew out Sacramento State 105-59 as a 29-point favorite. In addition to being the conference opener, this will be the Wildcats' first true road game. They could not have asked for a better opponent as Oregon State has dropped seven in a row since opening the season with a 73-64 victory over Portland State. The Beavers have certainly had their share of close defeats - three by three points or less - but they also just lost by 12 at Cal on Thursday. Arizona has been off for a full week and played just one game in the last two weeks. They are rested and simply better. Last year’s trip here to Corvallis resulted in a 34-point win. The home team has no chance here. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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12-05-21 | Vikings -7.5 v. Lions | Top | 27-29 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MINNESOTA Minnesota needs to string a couple wins together or they run the risk of falling out of playoff contention. Fortunately, the Vikings are facing the winless Lions this week. Coming up short in San Francisco last week leaves the Vikes at 5-6 SU overall. All six losses have been one-possession games, four by four points or less and two in overtime. As for Detroit, they just let their best chance at a win slip away on Thanksgiving, losing 16-14 to the Bears. The Lions have also dropped four games by four points or less. One was at Minnesota, 19-17 in Week 5, which came down to a last second FG. We don’t think the rematch will be quite as close as the Vikings should be “out for blood” this Sunday. Look for WR Jefferson to have a big game as not only was he named NFC Offensive Player of the Month for November, but he had seven catches for 124 yards in the first meeting. This terrible Lions offense hasn’t scored more than 19 points since Week 1. Neither team will have its starting RB. But Detroit has lost eight straight times to Minnesota, a streak that goes all the way back to 2017. Dan Campbell is not the man for the job nor is Jared Goff. Lay the number is this one. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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12-05-21 | Chargers v. Bengals OVER 49 | Top | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Two teams in the AFC playoff hunt will meet in Cincinnati this Sunday as the Bengals host the Chargers. Cincy is now 7-4 after blowing out Pittsburgh 41-10 last week. That was right here at home and came on the heels of a 32-13 road win in Vegas. So the Bengals definitely seem to be humming again after head-scratching losses to the Jets and Browns. The Bengals’ last five games have averaged a total of 55.2 points with all but one clearing 50. So that’s why we’ve got a high total here. Another reason is what the Chargers are capable of doing offensively. Two weeks ago, they put over 500 yards of offense in a 41-37 win over the Steelers. Things weren’t as good last week when the Lightning Bolts lost 28-13 at Denver. But that was only the third game all season that LA did not score 20 or more points. In fact, since Week 3, the Chargers have scored 24 or more points in all but two games. Look for Justin Herbert to have a bounce back game on Sunday and the Bengals will put up their usual number of points as well. The Chargers’ defense, which is second worst in the league at stopping the run, has given up an average of 31.3 points the seven games (2nd most in the league during that span) with all seven opponents scoring at least 24. Cincinnati is averaging the second most points in the league (31.3/game) since Week 6. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-04-21 | Celtics v. Blazers UNDER 216.5 | Top | 145-117 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Portland is a lot better at home (where they are 10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) than they are on the road (where they are 1-10 both SU and ATS). But, as we found out on Thursday, it doesn’t matter where they play if they don’t have Damian Lillard. The All-Star is injured right now and the Blazers lost their last game 114-83 to the Spurs. The team shot just 35.4% without Lillard and no player had more than 16 points. Despite not playing on Friday, there was news coming out of Portland as a shakeup has taken place in the front office due to some irresponsible conduct. But the Blazers may be catching a break here as Boston is off a loss in Utah last night. The C’s scored 130 points, getting 37 from Jayson Tatum, but it still wasn’t enough to defeat one of the league’s top teams. Boston probably won’t shoot 51.2% from the floor again tonight, nor will they allow 55% shooting (including 52% from three) like they did to the Jazz. The last time we went with an Under on a Celtics game was earlier in the week against Philadelphia and that ended up being an 88-87 final. Just to review, you’ve got one team missing its best player and the other playing without rest. The Celtics have a 6-1 Under record this year when facing teams with a losing record. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-04-21 | Iowa +11 v. Michigan | Top | 3-42 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* on IOWA Michigan is 10-2 ATS, best in the country, but coming off the biggest win the program has had in many years, we do not see them defeating Iowa by double digits. This is a tricky spot for the Wolverines. They are off the 42-27 win over Ohio State and now expected to make the College Football Playoff. Iowa, 10-2 and once ranked as high as #2 in the country, is basically playing with house money at this point. The Hawkeyes were blown out by both Purdue and Wisconsin in the middle of the season. But coming into 2021 their previous eight losses had all been by seven points or fewer. They’ve got a very good defense in Iowa City, one that should travel well to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Title tilt. Iowa is only giving up 17.3 points per contest, placing them in the top ten nationally. They are also top ten in number of yards per play allowed. Looking at the total, the expectation is that this is going to be a low-scoring game. So why not take the double digit underdog that can afford to play “loose?” Michigan is not going to be able to run the ball as effectively here as they did last week. Favorites are just 2-8 ATS in the history of the Big 10 Championship Game and 0-5 ATS excluding Ohio State. Play on IOWA AAA |
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12-04-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State -5 | Top | 46-13 | Loss | -125 | 69 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO ST Utah State has been a big surprise this year, reaching the Mountain West Conference Championship Game after going 1-5 in 2020. So they’re a nice story. But we’re going to point to an ugly 44-17 loss to Wyoming two weeks ago as to why this story is unlikely to have a “happy ending.” Utah State’s 15th ranked passing offense really struggled against Wyoming, who came in with the fourth best pass defense in the country. Aggies QB Bonner completed only 19 of 40 passes for 181 yards. We bring this up because San Diego State, the team Utah State faces on Saturday, has the #9 ranked pass defense in the country. The Aztecs are also top nine in the country in both scoring defense and yards per play. They’ve allowed more than 21 points just two times all year. Last week against Boise State, SDSU found themselves down 16-3 early in the second quarter. They shut the Broncos out the rest of the way and took the game 27-16. The Aztecs’ offense should find plenty of success running the ball here vs. a Utah State defense that gives up 164 rush yards per game. Against Wyoming, the Aggies allowed 362 yards rushing! Utah State’s three losses this year were by an average of 22 points. San Diego State not only has perhaps the best defense in the Group of Five, but also the best punter. They are much better in two of the three phases of the game and should roll to an easy ATS win on Saturday. Play on SAN DIEGO STATE AAA |
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12-04-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -5.5 | Top | 21-16 | Loss | -108 | 66 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OK STATE #5 Oklahoma State has a legit chance to make the College Football Playoff with a win here. That motivation alone should be enough to carry them to victory in this year’s Big 12 Championship Game. All the Cowboys seemingly need to have happen (besides winning this game) is have Michigan, Alabama or Cincinnati lose this weekend. Doesn’t seem too far-fetched, especially considering ‘Bama is an underdog. Baylor is ranked #7 but their path to the CFP seems a lot more murky considering the fact that no team outside the top six in the rankings on Championship Saturday has ever reached the CFP. While the Bears have won outright three of the four times they’ve been an underdog, the one time they didn’t was against Oklahoma State. Baylor was +3 in turnovers in that game and not only lost 24-14, but failed to cover the four-point spot. Outside of two big plays, the Bears’ offense really struggled in that game. They punted on their first eight possessions! QB Gerry Bohanon is listed as questionable to play on Saturday because of a hamstring injury. Our view is that with or without Bohanon, the Bears offense will once again struggle to move the ball against a tough OSU defense. If they couldn’t beat the Cowboys while being +3 in turnovers, it’s unlikely that they will beat them here when that differential is unlikely to repeat itself. OSU is 9-2-1 ATS this year, second in the country behind only Michigan. Play on OKLAHOMA STATE AAA |
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12-03-21 | Suns v. Warriors -7 | Top | 96-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE We’ve got quite the showdown Friday night in the NBA as the 19-3 Suns, winners of 18 straight games, take on the 18-3 Warriors. Now these teams just met, Tuesday in Phoenix, and the Suns came out ahead by the score of 104-96. Golden State shot a season-low 41.9% in that game and matched a season-high with 23 turnovers. But we think they are deserved favorites for the rematch. First off, this time the game is in San Francisco. The Warriors are 11-1 at home and averaging 116.7 points/game. Secondly, the Suns are at a clear disadvantage having played another game last night. Golden State has not played since Tuesday. While it was a relatively easy 114-103 win for the Suns on Thursday, over the Pistons, things will not be that easy here in the second night of a back to back. Phoenix shot 54% against Detroit, including a blistering 76% in the second quarter, got 48 bench points and had seven players finish in double figures. Don’t expect any of that to happen again tonight. Leading scorer Devin Booker got injured Tuesday, missed last night’s game and isn’t expected to play here. Meanwhile, Steph Curry should break out after being held to 4 of 21 shooting in the last game. Look for the Warriors to end Phoenix’s record win streak and lay the points. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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12-03-21 | Iowa v. Purdue OVER 160.5 | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It’s a battle of 7-0 teams in the Big 10 Friday. Iowa and Purdue both handled their business in the Big 10/ACC Championship Game earlier this week. Iowa beat Virginia 75-74 while Purdue crushed Florida State 93-65. What may make this a tough matchup for the Hawkeyes is they are just 98th in defensive efficiency. Purdue, who is the home team here, ranks 1st in the country in offensive efficiency. But not far behind them is tonight’s visitor, who is 3rd in the country in offensive efficiency (a measure of how many points a team scores per possession). So expect this to be a high-scoring affair Friday night in West Lafayette. The 75 points that Iowa scored in the last game was a season-low, if you can believe it. With the team they beat (Virginia) playing at the slowest tempo in the country, it makes sense that the Hawkeyes scored a season-low. But they average 94.0 points/game and Purdue plays at a much more reasonable tempo. The Boilermakers also average 92.4 points/game. The oddsmakers can’t make this total high enough, in our eyes. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-03-21 | Oregon v. Utah -2.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 50 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UTAH It was all Utes in the regular season matchup, a 38-7 win by the home team in Salt Lake City. That cost Oregon any chance of playing in the College Football Playoff, so there’s no denying the revenge factor here for the Ducks. But revenge can only carry a team so far. Has that much really changed in the two weeks since these Pac 12 rivals last played? We think not. Utah’s offense converted 8 of 10 on third down in the first half against the Oregon defense and also averaged 6.1 yards per play. But the Utes’ defense was even more dominant in pitching a first half shutout and allowing virtually zero big plays. Will Utah be as dominant on a neutral field? Probably not. But this is a team playing very solid football right now. Don’t be fooled by the final score of last week’s win over Colorado. The Utes had almost 300 more yards and a 23-9 first down edge in the 28-13 game, their fifth straight win. Three of the last four opponents have gotten held to 13 points or less. Last week marked the first time in eight games where the Utes offense failed to score 34 points. They are just bad matchup for Oregon. Play on UTAH AAA |
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12-03-21 | Western Kentucky v. UTSA OVER 72.5 | Top | 41-49 | Win | 100 | 49 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The first Conference Championship Game of Week 14 goes down in Conference USA where UTSA will host Western Kentucky. UTSA just had its unbeaten season ruined last week by North Texas in a 45-23 loss. But the Roadrunners’ spot in this game was already secure and a Conference USA title would be a big deal for this relatively “unknown” program. They’ll face a Western Kentucky that is on runs of 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread. The Hilltoppers have covered the spread in their last five games. But they did lose 52-46 as three-point home favorites to UTSA back on October 9th. We are anticipating another shootout this Friday night. The fact that the teams already combined for 98 points and 1234 yards of total offense is a nice start. Consider that in the first meeting these teams combined for eight TD drives of 75 or more yards and none went longer than 5:08. WKU averages 43.3 points/game. They’ve scored 52 and 53 points the last two weeks. UTSA averages 36.9 points/game. Them giving up 45 last week doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence in the defense. The Over is 11-4 in the Hilltoppers’ previous 15 games. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-02-21 | Spurs v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 114-83 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND We’re a little shocked at how low this spread is. The shock is for two reasons. One, San Antonio comes in on its first win streak of the season. Before this, they’d never even won two straight games all year. So we see another win being highly unlikely, especially because they are playing in Portland tonight. That brings us to the second reason for being shocked about the line. The Blazers have been a great home team thus far, winning 10 of 11 games here and covering the spread nine times. We took them the other night when they were hosting Detroit and that ended up being an easy 110-92 win as 9.5 point favorites. It was a game that the Blazers basically controlled from start to finish. They led by as many as 26. Now Damian Lillard is still out (for at least 10 days), but considering how the Blazers looked on Tuesday without him, we don’t think that’s going to be a problem here. The Spurs aren’t a very good team and winning for a third straight time as underdogs seems unlikely. On the road, they are just 2-7 and they average less than 100 points. Portland is 5-1 ATS its last six games vs. San Antonio. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints OVER 47.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -101 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Dallas was tremendous over the first two months of the season, going 6-1 straight up and 7-0 against the spread. But they definitely gave some back in November, going 1-3 SU and ATS. The Cowboys were losers on Thanksgiving Day, falling 36-33 in overtime to the Raiders. Now they’’ turn around and face another Thanksgiving Day loser, the Saints, in another Thursday game. New Orleans got blasted by Buffalo 31-6 as a seven-point home underdog last week. It was their fourth consecutive loss. Before this current losing streak, you would have had to go all the way back to 2016 to find the last time any Saints team lost three in a row. With both teams struggling, we’re not interested in playing either side here. Instead, the Over looks to be where the value is at. The Dallas defense gave up over 500 yards last week, including 366 through the air. Per sources, New Orleans is making a change at QB to Taysom Hill. We like the move. But what Hill can’t fix is a Saints defense that’s allowed 71 points the last two games and an average of 29.6 its last five. The Cowboys offense is likely to see WR CeeDee Lamb return. The impact of not having coach Mike McCarthy on the sidelines should be minimal for the road team. McCarthy is generally regarded as a bottom tier coach. The Over has hit in the Cowboys' last four Thursday games. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-02-21 | Blackhawks v. Capitals UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Whether they win or lose, the Capitals’ last five games have all been pretty high-scoring. The Over is a perfect 5-0 and the average number of combined goals scored is 7.6. But tonight the Caps face a low scoring Chicago team, whose 45 goals are the third fewest in the league. Only the struggling Islanders and awful Coyotes have scored fewer times this season. Following a change behind the bench, the Blackhawks did have a brief surge for interim coach Derek King, winning four in a row in early November. But, predictably, they’ve since come back down to Earth and that includes scoring two or fewer goals in four of the last five games. On Sunday, the Blackhawks were shutout 2-0 by San Jose. Washington’s last game was a lot wilder than Chicago’s as the Capitals blew a 4-1 third period lead in the third period and lost 5-4 to Florida. They allowed 51 shots for the game, including 27 in the crucial third period. We don’t see anything like that happening to the Capitals tonight. Sunday may have been just the second shutout loss for the Blackhawks this season, but there have been only five games where they’ve scored more than twice in regulation and the power play is 0 for its last 13. Washington knows it won’t need many goals to win here, so expect a rather low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-01-21 | Penguins v. Oilers -121 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on EDMONTON Edmonton has to be happy with its start to the season. They have a 15-5 overall record and are second in the Pacific Division with 30 points. They are only one point behind first place Calgary. At home, the Oilers are 8-1 and have scored 38 goals. Tonight they host Pittsburgh, a team that is fourth in the Metropolitan Division and ironically enough just lost 2-1 to Calgary. Before that, the Penguins lost 6-3 at home to Montreal. They had won five in a row before the back to back losses. Back to Edmonton, the Oilers have won their last two games - 5-3 at Arizona and 3-2 at Vegas. They should be pretty fired up to be back home Wednesday night as the Oilers are looking for what would be their first regulation win over the Penguins since 2006! They have just four wins in the last 19 meetings with the Penguins. That includes six straight home losses. But we feel tonight is the night they snap that streak. There’s no debate over which team is playing better hockey right now and Edmonton is 38-16 its last 54 games as a favorite. Pittsburgh is playing its fourth game in six days, a situation they’ve lost in four of the last five times. Play on EDMONTON AAA |
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12-01-21 | Michigan v. North Carolina +2 | Top | 51-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on N CAROLINA At one time, Michigan was ranked as high as #4 in the country. But Juwan Howard’s team has already lost twice (to Seton Hall and Arizona) and hardly looked impressive as 21-point favorites last week in a 64-54 win over Tarleton State. Tonight finds the Wolverines playing their first “true” road game of the year and it’s in Chapel Hill, part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. So far the Big 10 has largely dominated this event, taking six of the eight head to head matchups, including Ohio State beating #1 Duke last night. North Carolina is 0-6 ATS coming into this game, tying them with William & Mary for the most ATS losses without a win this season. But getting this game at home is pretty huge for the Tar Heels. Michigan is down to #24 in the rankings and turns the ball over too much, even when facing bad teams. They turned it over 20 times vs. Prairie View A&M and 21 times vs. Tarleton State. If UNC, who comes in averaging 83.2 points/game, can be disruptive enough at the defensive end, then they will pull the “upset.” The Tar Heels are off their best defensive effort of the season as they held UNC Asheville to 53 points on 26.5% shooting a week ago. Take the points. Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |
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12-01-21 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 210.5 | Top | 87-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Sixers and Celtics are two of the five teams in the Eastern Conference that are currently tied with an 11-10 record. Neither is happy with that record, but they each head into Wednesday night’s matchup on NBA TV fresh off a win. Philadelphia held off Orlando on Monday, winning 101-96 but did not cover the 14-point spread. “It was a win, not inspired,” said coach Doc Rivers. The Sixers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. Meanwhile, Boston beat Toronto 109-97 as a two-point favorite on Sunday. Both teams should be at full strength tonight. What we are looking for is the Under to hit. Philadelphia has averaged just 104.9 points over its previous 10 games, on 43.2% shooting. Against division opponents, they are 0-4 and averaging 103.2 points/game. Boston is averaging only 104.0 points its last five games, but the good news is they are allowing just 102.2. Throw in the fact that both teams are in the bottom 10 in pace of play and you should have a game that fails to reach the oddsmakers’ total. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-30-21 | Pistons v. Blazers -8.5 | Top | 92-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland’s road woes continued last night as they were blown out in Utah, losing 129-107 as 7.5-point underdogs. That completed an 0-3 road trip for the Blazers, who are now 1-10 (SU and ATS) for the year away from home. But they have been a completely different team at home where they are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS. Starting tonight, they will play eight of their next nine games in Portland, including the next four. Even better is that the first home game (tonight) is against a 4-16 Detroit team that stinks no matter where it plays. The Pistons have lost their last six games. While many of them have been close, this is going to be their fourth road game in seven days, all of them taking place out West. At home, Portland is scoring 12 more points per game than what they allow. Detroit, who is one of three teams not even averaging 100 points/game, gives up 110 points/game on the road. Look for the home team to win this one by double digits. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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11-30-21 | Florida State v. Purdue UNDER 143.5 | Top | 65-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Big Ten drew first blood last night against the ACC, taking both games in this annual “Challenge.” The event really kicks into “high gear” on Tuesday with six games, including one featuring the Big Ten’s “best,” that being #2 ranked Purdue. The Boilermakers are 6-0 and host a Florida State team that is 5-1 with a couple of close wins. One of those close wins took place last Wednesday when the Seminoles needed overtime to scrape by Boston U 81-80 as 17.5 point favorites. Purdue has covered the number four straight times, including neutral court wins over North Carolina and Villanova. So this looks to be a challenge for FSU. We don’t like the idea of laying points though. What we do like is the Under. Florida State is going to be without three players, two of them starters - PG Evans and C Ngom. The Boilermakers are holding opponents to 56.5 points on 34.3% shooting here in West Lafayette. But the Seminoles also are holding teams to 38.5% shooting and 63 points/game. That last score (the one vs. Boston U) is misleading because the game went into OT. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-30-21 | Red Wings v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Not many would have expected Detroit to be ahead of Boston in the Atlantic Division heading into the final day of November. But here we are and that is the case. Now it’s just a one-point edge that the Red Wings currently enjoy over the Bruins and their goal differential is much worse. Boston is a heavy favorite to win tonight for many reasons. First and foremost, they are the home team. The Wings are just 3-7-1 on the road where they are giving up four goals per game. The money line is too high to play here, but we will take advantage of the leaky Detroit defense to play the Over. When these teams met earlier this month, it was a 5-1 Bruins win here in Boston. The Red Wings have given up multiple goals in 19 straight games and five or more seven times this season. So look for Boston to basically send this one Over almost by itself. They should give up a goal or two as well though, considering they’ve allowed 12 in the last four games and Detroit has scored seven times in its last two games. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-29-21 | Tarleton St v. Gonzaga -30.5 | Top | 55-64 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GONZAGA Gonzaga just suffered what was only their second loss since the start of LAST season. Duke beat them 84-81 in Las Vegas Friday night. Of course, the only other Gonzaga loss in the last two years came in April’s National Championship Game against Baylor. They obviously did not get a chance to immediately bounce back from that one. But they can bounce back here. Considering who the opponent is, this could get ugly in a hurry. Tarleton State isn’t any good to begin with and they are in the wrong place at the wrong time as far as we’re concerned. The last four times Gonzaga has been off a loss, they have covered the spread in the next game. Tarleton State has yet to even beat a Division I opponent this season (0-5). The Texans will have no answers here for a team that beat UCLA by 20 last week. Gonzaga already has three wins by 34 or more points this year. Play on GONZAGA AAA |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks +1 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SEATTLE It’s not the most attractive matchup on Monday night, but we like the Seahawks to cover against the Washington Football Team. While Seattle is a very disappointing 3-7, this is a game they can certainly win. Last week, the ‘Hawks were favored to beat 9-2 Arizona. We know that game was at home and the Cardinals didn’t have Kyler Murray. But it’s certainly a bit jarring to see them go from being favored to beat the team with the best record in the league to underdogs against a 4-6 Football Team. Now Washington has won two straight. One of those was against Tampa Bay. Then they went on the road to upset Carolina last week. But the Football Team is still a subpar outfit. Seattle might have some injuries, but they have Russell Wilson. They also have the highest win percentage in the history of Monday Night Football, including 11 wins in the past 14 appearances. We see this as a classic buy low spot on the Seahawks, who are the better team. We’re getting a good number as the lookahead line had them favored by 3.5 points. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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11-29-21 | Hornets v. Bulls OVER 225.5 | Top | 119-133 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Two of the East’s top six teams face off on Monday with the Bulls hosting the Hornets. Despite losing three of their last four games, the Bulls are off to one of their best starts in years. The Hornets have won 8 of their last 10 games. But they too are coming off a loss here and it was in overtime to the lowly Rockets. The final score was 146-143. That came on the heels of Charlotte scoring 133 in a win over Minnesota the previous game. The Hornets are last in the East in scoring defense, giving up 114.6 points/game. You can now probably guess how we’re looking to play tonight’s matchup. Charlotte leads the league in three-point shooting at 37.7%. They were 20 for 50 against Houston and that includes them missing all seven attempts in overtime. Chicago has yet to go Over in consecutive games this season, but look for that to change tonight. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-28-21 | Maple Leafs -165 v. Ducks | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TORONTO The Maple Leafs look to make it nine wins in their last 10 games as they visit Anaheim tonight. The Leafs only loss since Nov 10 came at home, by a score of 2-0 to Pittsburgh. Since that loss, they have rattled off three consecutive road wins where they outscored the Islanders, Kings and Sharks 13-3. The Leafs are now tied for first place (with Florida) in the Atlantic Division with 31 points. They allow the third fewest number of goals per game in the league. Anaheim was once hot itself, winning eight in a row from October 31st through November 16th. But the Ducks have since dropped three of four, though they did win 4-0 here at home on Friday. But the team they beat (Ottawa) is one of the worst in the league right now. The fact the Ducks are third in the Pacific is something we’d call “surprising.” They’ve been a tough out at home and are also strong on the penalty kill. But Toronto, having claimed six straight road games, is in a different class. The Leafs have allowed just 11 goals their last nine games, making them a VERY difficult team to beat. We like them to get the two points on Sunday. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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11-28-21 | Chargers v. Broncos OVER 47 | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -102 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER The Chargers scored 41 points and gained over 500 yards last week. It came down to the final minute, as all Chargers’ games seem to do, but they were a 41-37 winner over Pittsburgh. This just in: QB Justin Herbert is very good. Denver’s defense isn’t as good as you think, which was evident two weeks ago when they gave up 30 points to the Eagles. Meanwhile, look for the Broncos’ offense to move the ball via the running game. The Chargers are last in the league at stopping the run. Denver has two good backs - Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams - who have combined for 4.7 yards per rush and 1,333 scrimmage yards. Each of the Chargers’ last six opponents have scored at least 24 points. Look for this to turn into a pretty high-scoring affair. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-28-21 | Bucs -3 v. Colts | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB Tampa Bay continued its strong play at home with a 30-10 win over the Giants on Monday Night Football. The Super Bowl Champs are now 5-0 SU at home this year. But on the road, they are only 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS. An 0-3 ATS record this season against teams that have winning records is even less inspiring. But we will still lay the points with the Bucs in this one. Indianapolis, coming off a 41-15 win over Buffalo, seems a little overvalued. The Colts were +4 in turnover margin against the Bills, which was the difference. They’ve played three straight games of turnover-free football. A fourth straight seems a bit much as would be asking them to cover for a fifth straight time as a dog. We think the big key in this game is the Bucs having the league’s top ranked run defense. So they should be able to slow down Colts RB Jonathan Taylor a bit. You’ve got to figure that first ATS road win is coming. Only having to lay a field goal seems like a solid value. The Colts gained fewer yards per play last week than the Bills, which will be surprising to some given the final score. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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11-28-21 | Falcons v. Jaguars +2.5 | Top | 21-14 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on JAX Jacksonville should be favored in this game. We know they are one of the worst teams in the NFL. But so are the Falcons, who have put up only three points total in the last two games. After being humiliated 43-3 in Dallas, Atlanta was shutout at home by New England, 25-0, last Thursday. The offensive struggles are easy to understand. WR Calvin Ridley remains out and RB Cordarrelle Patterson has been bothered by an ankle injury. Here’s something that is truly unbelievable - the Falcons haven’t had a single run play go for more than 18 yards all season. Now Jacksonville has gone four straight games without topping 17 points. But they did beat the Bills and cover against the Colts. Last week’s 30-10 loss to the 49ers was a step back and their 14th straight loss to NFC opponents. But if they’re ever going to stop that streak, it would be here. In a battle of two of the league’s worst teams, we will side with the home team getting points. Atlanta is 9-17 ATS its last 26 games as a favorite, 3-6 ATS since the start of last season. Play on JACKSONVILLE AAA |
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11-28-21 | Panthers -2.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 10-33 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CAR Under Matt Rhule, Carolina has simply been a better team on the road. They are 10-3 ATS in his two-year tenure, which includes 3-2 SU/ATS this year. The last time the Panthers went on the road, they beat Arizona 34-10. Unfortunately though, they lost 27-21 to Washington at home last week. But Cam Newton looked good with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. It was a tie game in the fourth quarter. Miami has won and covered three in a row, but two of the wins were against the Texans and Jets. They are 0-3 ATS this year when the spread is three points or less. Carolina’s defense ranks second in the league in total yards allowed and is first against the pass. They do a good job at pressuring the QB (1st in pressure rate L4 weeks) and pass protection has been a problem for this Dolphins’ offensive line all year as they’ve given up the sixth most sacks. On a three-game win streak with the Jets and Giants coming up next, Miami might be feeling good about themselves. But we don’t see them winning a fourth straight game. They’re one of the worst teams in the league. Lay the points. Play on CAROLINA AAA |
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11-27-21 | Oklahoma +4.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OKLAHOMA By the time this game kicks off, we’ll have a pretty clear idea of what the Big 12 Championship Game could look like. We know Oklahoma State will be involved in that game next week. They’ll play either Baylor or Oklahoma, depending on how things unfold Sunday. Any combination other than an Oklahoma loss AND Baylor win would mean these two Bedlam rivals face each other again next week. Oklahoma State comes in as the favorite Saturday. But OU has won the last six Bedlam games, plus 16 out of the last 18. The big story from a betting perspective is that Oklahoma State has covered the spread in nine consecutive games after opening 0-2 ATS. The Cowboys had a number of close wins early in the season, but have been dominant the last month or so. But it would be foolish to write off the Sooners in this game considering that they need to win in order to play for a seventh straight Big 12 Championship. They average 38.9 points/game and almost always find a way to put a healthy number on the board, save for the one loss at Baylor. The Sooners are 7-3 ATS L10 as an underdog. Play on OKLAHOMA AAA |
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11-27-21 | Texas A&M v. LSU +6.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LSU Emotions should be running high Saturday night in Death Valley. Not only is this the final home game for 19 LSU seniors, but it will be the final home game for head coach Ed Orgeron, who is leaving the program just two years after leading it to a National Championship. A win here and the Tigers would become bowl eligible, guaranteeing Orgeron one last game. Several of his players have been vocal about winning the game for their coach. "I'm so excited about this game," Orgeron said. "We're going to be pumped up and we're going to be ready to go." Avoiding what would be the first losing season in Baton Rouge in over 20 years is yet another motivating factor. We believe the team does want to go to a bowl for “Coach O.” Texas A&M has nothing to play for on Saturday night. Bowl position perhaps, but win or lose here the change in bowl game isn’t going to be all that significant. The Aggies are the only team to defeat Alabama this year, but they’ve also lost to three other SEC West teams: Ole Miss, Miss State and Arkansas. Two of the three losses came on the road. No A&M team has won at LSU since 1994 and the Aggies are just 2-7 straight up vs. the Tigers since joining the SEC. Given the circumstances, we think this line is too high. Play on LSU AAA |