Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-26-11 | Eastern Michigan v. Ohio -10.5 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
5* MAC Game of the Year on Ohio -10.5
Ohio is yet to play to expectations this season but, motivated by 3 straight upset defeats, I expect it to dominate this evening. Eastern Mich has struggled away from home this season, where it is just 1-6 in true road games. These 6 losses have come by an average of 15.3 points. It is also worth noting that the Eagles have dropped 5 of their last 6 at Ohio. The time to fade E. Mich is now, as the Eagles are 0-6 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Plus, Ohio is an impressive 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after 3 or more consecutive losses. Expect this motivated Bobcats squad to roll tonight. Lay the points. |
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01-22-11 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor -6 | Top | 57-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Baylor -6
Following back-to-back disappointing performances against Iowa State and Kansas, expect Baylor to be ready to go today. Expect the Bears to take care of business against an Oklahoma State team that has lost its last 3 road games by an average of 16.0 points. This series has been dominated by the home team and the favorite. The home team and favorite are both 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Under coach Drew, Baylor is 12-4 ATS off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a conference rival. It is also 34-16 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses under his watch. The Cowboys have been a poor road investment when catching points, considering they are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games as a road underdog and 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Bet the Bears. |
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01-21-11 | Houston Rockets v. Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -3.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and a pair of losses to Houston already this season, the Grizzlies will mean business when they take the floor tonight. The Grizzlies have quietly been one of the strongest investments in the league, going 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a defeat. Revenge has also been a strong angle to play in regards to Memphis. Under coach Hollins, the Grizz are 54-36 ATS in revenge games. The Rockets have won 3 in a row, but all 3 of those wins came against the East. Houston is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 vs. the Western Conference while Memphis is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 vs. the West. Lay the points. |
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01-20-11 | Gonzaga v. Santa Clara +9 | Top | 71-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Santa Clara +9
The Broncos always get up for Gonzaga on their home floor, but they'll be even hungrier tonight after getting embarrassed at Saint Mary's. The Broncos have played the Bulldogs to within 8 points in 6 of the last 7 meetings at Santa Clara. It is also worth noting that the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Bulldogs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5 points while the Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Santa Clara is also 6-0 ATS following a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival over the last 3 seasons, only losing by an average of 1.9 points in this situation. Lastly, the Broncos have never lost ATS under coach Keating in home games versus teams outscoring their opponents by 8 or more points per game 15 or more games into the season. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS versus these teams, only losing to them by 2.3 points on average. All these trends combine to form a powerful 26-0 ATS angle in support of our side. Take Santa Clara. |
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01-19-11 | Minnesota Timberwolves +7 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 111-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Timberwolves +7
The Clippers are playing their best basketball of the season, having won 5 of their last 6 games. But this is precisely the time to go against them as odds makers have purposely overreacted to their recent success to trap the public. Keep in mind that the Clippers haven't been favored by more than 5 points all season. Minnesota won the season's first meeting at home, but didn't show well in a 113-90 loss in LA a month ago. I'll gladly take the Wolves in this revenge spot, considering road underdogs revenging a road loss vs. an opponent, provided they have won 25% or less of their games on the season, are an impressive 61-29 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Timberwolves are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. The Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road meetings in this series. The Clippers are getting way too much respect for their short body of work tonight. Take the points as Minnesota takes the Clipps right down to the wire. |
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01-17-11 | Idaho v. Fresno State -4.5 | Top | 67-57 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Fresno State -4.5
After suffering back-to-back defeats, including a bad loss at home against Utah State last game, the Bulldogs will be out for blood tonight. The fact that they have dropped 5 in a row to Idaho will provide even more motivation. It must be noted that plays on a favorite after a game where it made 28% or less of its shots, are an impressive 74-36 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams are winning by an average of 8.7 points in this situation. The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Bet the Bulldogs. |
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01-14-11 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors -3.5 | Top | 112-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Warriors -3.5
This is a big letdown spot for the Clippers after an upset win over the Miami Heat in their last game. In addition, this is a big bounce back spot for Golden State off back-to-back defeats. One of those defeats was a double-digit loss to the Clippers, which ensures us the Warriors will be out for revenge this evening. There are also plenty of numbers to support this play in addition to these 3 strong situational factors (letdown, bounce back, revenge). The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. The Warriors are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings at Golden State. We also have another very special trend in our favor. Consider that LAC is 0-8 ATS in road games following a home game in which both it and its opponents topped the century mark over the last 3 seasons. The Clippers are losing by an average score of 112.9 to 95.0 in this spot. Lay the points. |
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01-12-11 | Dallas Mavericks +1 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 89-102 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks +1
The Mavs have struggled without Dirk Nowitzki and Caron Butler in the lineup, but I like their chances in Indianapolis tonight. Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and with 3 full days to rest and prepare, expect Dallas to bring its "A" game against a Pacers squad that just played last night. The Mavs have been deadly recently when getting plenty of time off. In fact, they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 3 or more days rest. The Mavs have also been deadly against the Pacers, winning 5 straight and 9 of the last 10 in the series. How have the Pacers been when playing back-to-back you ask? They are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without rest. The Mavericks are an impressive 50-24-1 ATS in their last 75 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points while the Pacers 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. Take Dallas. |
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01-11-11 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 61-64 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
5* Big Ten Game of the Month (ESPN) on Michigan State -3.5
Motivated by an upset loss at Penn State, I completely expect the Spartans to bounce back strong on their home floor tonight. In fact, Sparty is 9-2 ATS when coming off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 points or more under coach Tom Izzo. State is winning by an average score of 75.4 to 59.1 in this situation. Michigan State has won 5 straight at home in this series with those wins all coming by at least 7 points. As a result, the Spartans are 5-0 ATS in those games. It is also worth noting that the home team has won the last 10 meetings. Sparty has a nice advantage from beyond the arc in this one. Wisconsin has shot the ball poorly from 3 away from home this season (27.6%) and it has not defended the 3 well away from Madison (38.1%). Michigan State is knocking them down at a 38.8% clip at home. Consider that Wiscy is 0-6 ATS when playing away from home versus good 3 point shooting teams making 37% or more of their 3-point attempts since the beginning of last season. The Badgers are losing to these teams by 6.6 points on average. Take Michigan State. |
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01-05-11 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Houston Rockets -6 | Top | 103-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Rockets -6
The Rockets have begun the New Year with back-to-back losses on the road. One of those losses was an embarrassing 100-85 loss at Portland. With a day to rest, and back at home, I expect Houston to have its revenge tonight. It will be extremely difficult for Portland to recover from last night's loss at Dallas. Expect the Blazers to be deflated after blowing a five-point 4th quarter lead. Plus, Portland has had no success in Houston. In fact, it has averaged just 86.4 points while losing 12 of its last 13 there. Portland has struggled on the road in general, losing 6 of its last 7 and 10 of its last 12 away from home. Houston, meanwhile, has won 9 of its last 10 at home. The Rockets are 6-0-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. Lay the points. |
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12-25-10 | Miami Heat v. Los Angeles Lakers -2 | Top | 96-80 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
5* NBA Christmas Day *BEST BET* (ABC) on Lakers -2
The Lakers haven't played since a Dec. 21 embarrassing loss to the Bucks, which can't be sitting well. They'll be ready to go at home on Christmas day to show the Heat they are still the team to beat. The Lakers are an impressive 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Meanwhile, the Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. This is a game where the Heat will really miss a guy like Udonis Haslem alongside Chris Bosh. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Juwan Howard and Erick Dampier just don't have the athleticism to match up well with the LA bigs. Miami has already lost to Dallas twice and Boston twice, so it has certainly struggled with elite teams. I'm laying the points with the Lakers. |
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12-23-10 | San Antonio Spurs v. Orlando Magic -2 | Top | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
5* NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Magic -2
Orlando has been struggling, but it catches the Spurs in a great spot tonight. The Spurs used a lot of energy in last night's comeback win over Denver. They may be able to hang around for a while, but I expect this much fresher Orlando team to pull away in the second half. The Spurs haven't had much luck in Orlando lately, losing their last 2 visits by 12 and 26 points respectively. The Spurs were lucky to win the season's first meeting. They had to rally in the fourth to beat the Magic last month. Fortunately, Orlando is one of the best in the biz when out for revenge. In fact, it is 43-26 ATS in its last 69 games revenging a same season loss, winning by an average score of 101.1 to 94.3 in this situation. Lay the points. |
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12-17-10 | Utah Jazz v. New Orleans Hornets +1.5 | Top | 71-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Hornets +1.5
Chris Paul is sick and tired of hearing about how Deron Williams has his number. I fully expect him to do something about it at home tonight. I'll gladly get behind the Hornets at home, where they are 10-3 this season, in this highly motivated spot. Utah won the first meeting at its place and New Orleans will be out for revenge here tonight. The fact that odds makers have set such a low total says a lot about what they expect to happen. It tells us that they expect New Orleans, which is holding foes to 91.5 ppg at home, to have success slowing down the Jazz. A lower scoring game definitely favors the Hornets here. In fact, under coach Sloan, Utah is just 40-66 ATS in road games when the total is between 185 and 189.5 points. It is losing these games by an average score of 96.0 to 92.4. It is also worth noting that the Jazz are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Take the Hornets. |
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12-14-10 | Toronto Raptors v. Charlotte Bobcats -4.5 | Top | 91-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats -4.5
Expect a major response from the Bobcats at home tonight after such an embarrassing loss to Boston their last time out. The Bobcats have already defeated the Raptors by 5 points in Toronto this season, and they definitely have the edge in this highly motivated spot. The Bobcats have been money in the small chalk, going 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after being held to less than 75 points in their previous game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a losing road record. It is also important to note that Charlotte is a perfect 8-0 ATS after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 99.8 to 90.5 in this situation. The Bobcats have won 4 of the last 6 in this series by 5 or more points with 3 of those wins coming by at least 13 points. The Raptors are just 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Lay the points with the Bobcats. |
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12-11-10 | Arizona +2.5 v. Brigham Young | Top | 65-87 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Game of the Week on Arizona +2.5
This game is all about revenge for the Wildcats. Arizona returns 4 starters from a team that was brutally embarrassed by BYU to the tune of 99-69 last season. That loss will be on Zona's mind when it takes the floor today, and it will give the Cats the motivational edge to get this "W". BYU may be 9-0 and ranked in the Top 25, but it is yet to see a team even remotely as talented as this Wildcat club. That puts the Cougars at a disadvantage considering Arizona has had the benefit of playing top notch Kansas. Arizona is an impressive 7-1 ATS in all lined games this season. It is also a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. Lastly, BYU is a lousy 8-20 ATS in its last 28 when playing away from home (game at Salt Lake City) after 2 straight wins by 15 points or more. It is losing these games by an average score of 72.6 to 70.8. Take Arizona. |
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12-10-10 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Phoenix Suns OVER 204.5 | Top | 101-94 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
5* NBA Total of the Month on Blazers/Suns OVER 204.5
With the Suns out to avenge Tuesday's loss to Portland, and with the Blazers having just played last night, I love our chances with the Over. We saw 205 total points scored in Tuesday's matchup, and Blazers starting point guard Andre Miller didn't play in that game. He has thrived when playing at Phoenix, scoring 22.8 points and 8.0 assists in his last five visits. Portland is a good defensive team, but it won't be able to bring the same energy to the defensive end tonight after just playing a game last night. In fact, the Over is 5-2 in the Trail Blazers' last 7 games playing on 0 days rest and 9-2 in their last 11 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Over is 14-3 in the Suns' last 17 games when playing on 1 day of rest. Phoenix is also a perfect 8-0 Over after playing a home game this season. We are seeing 230.4 totals points on average in this situation. Bet the Over. |
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12-01-10 | Minnesota Timberwolves +10.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 86-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
5* Western Conference Game of the Month on Timberwolves +10.5
Minnesota hasn't played since Saturday. Off 4 straight losses, expect the rested and prepared Timberwolves to give Dallas a game. This is Dallas' 6th game in 9 days so fatigue is starting to set in at this point. Plus, Dallas will be much more concerned with its next opponent - Utah. History is on our side when you consider that plays against favorites of 10 or more points off 2 or more consecutive home wins, tired team playing 6 or more games in 10 days, are 42-16 ATS since 1996. In addition, Dallas is 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons, only winning these games by an average score of 101.1 to 100.7. Lastly, the Timberwolves are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Dallas. Take Minnesota and the points. |
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11-26-10 | Chicago Bulls v. Denver Nuggets -3.5 | Top | 97-98 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Nuggets -3.5
Denver has the big edge in terms of fresh legs as it hasn't played since Monday. Chicago played both Tuesday and Wednesday with Wednesday's double-OT come from behind win taking a lot out of the Bulls. Denver also has the advantage playing on its home floor where it has won 4 in a row over Chicago by 4 or more points. The last three home wins in this series have all come by double digits. In addition, Denver will be out to avenge a 2-point loss at Chicago earlier this month. The home team is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Denver. The Nuggets are also 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Lay the points. |
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11-24-10 | Dallas Mavericks +4 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks +4
Dallas has 4 losses this season, and 2 of those losses have come by 1 and 2 points respectively. This is a Dallas team that will be in just about every game this season because of how solid it is defensively. Dallas has a huge edge on the defensive end tonight. It is only allowing 91.6 ppg this season while OKC is giving up 102.2. The Mavs may be playing back-to-back, but they are a tremendous 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing without rest. Dallas is also 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 road games, and 4-0 ATS in its last 4 road games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Conversely, the Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer. The road team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the points. |
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11-23-10 | Detroit Pistons +10 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 84-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +10
Dallas is a very good team, but it doesn't win very many games by double-digits, especially at home. In fact, the Mavs have only posted 1 double-digit win in 7 home games this season. Dallas has had a tough time getting up for lesser opponents, and I expect that to be the case again tonight with a big game against Oklahoma City scheduled for tomorrow night. Looking at this numerically, we find that Dallas is just 1-16 ATS in its last 17 home games when playing against a team with a losing record. It is only defeating these teams by an average score of 101.8 to 99.6. It is also worth noting that Dallas is 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points since the beginning of last season. It is only winning these games by an average score of 101.1 to 100.7. The Pistons are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog. We'll take the Pistons and the points tonight. |
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11-19-10 | Chicago Bulls +5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 88-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week (ESPN) on Bulls +5
Dallas is being overvalued at home tonight against a very good Chicago Bulls team. This really comes as no surprise because odds makers gave the Mavs too much respect at home all last season. As a result, the Mavericks are 14-35-3 ATS in their last 52 home games. They are just 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Bulls have been outstanding in this same point spread range on the road, going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. In also like the fact that the Bulls are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games period. The Bulls have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Dallas. Plus, the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the Bulls and the points tonight. |
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11-17-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Detroit Pistons +8 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +8
This is a tough spot for the Lakers playing back-to-back, especially since injuries to Andrew Bynum and Theo Ratliff have depleted their front line depth. Detroit has covered the spread in 6 of its last 7, and it will have the advantage of fresh legs on its home floor tonight. We have already seen this veteran Lakers team start to wear down. It was blowing out its opponents early, but it has either won by 5 or less, or lost, 4 of its last 6 games. The Pistons are an impressive 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Take the Pistons and the points. |
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11-12-10 | Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on 76ers +9.5
Despite covering the spread in 4 of its last 5 games, Philly isn't getting the respect it deserves. Dallas has been constantly overvalued at home. As a result, it is just 15-35-1 ATS in its last 51 home games. In addition, it is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, only winning these games by 4.4 points on average. Since the beginning of last season, the Mavs are 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points, only winning by an average score of 101.1 to 100.7 in these games. Adding to my confidence in this play is that fact that Philly is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games as an underdog and 6-0 ATS in its last 6 versus the NBA Southwest division. The last time these teams met, Philly won by 11 points. Philly lost the 2 prior meetings, but those losses came by just 2 points each. Take the points with Philly tonight. |
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11-08-10 | Boston Celtics v. Dallas Mavericks -3.5 | Top | 87-89 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
5* Monday NBA *BEST BET* on Mavs -3.5
This is an extremely tough scheduling spot for Boston. Not only are the veteran Celtics playing back-to-back, but they are playing their 5th game in 7 days. As if this situation isn't tough enough, they are playing on the road against one of the best teams in the West. This will be just Dallas' 3rd game in 6 days, and it will be hungry following a loss to Denver. In fact, plays on home favorites off an upset loss, in the first 6 games of the season, if they were a playoff team last season that lost 4 or more of their last 5 games, are 31-10 ATS since 1996, winning by an average of 11.5 points in this spot. The Mavericks are also 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the Mavs. |
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11-05-10 | Utah Jazz -1 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 78-85 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
5* Friday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz -1
After a pair of poor performances to start the season, the Jazz have it going. They have scored 120 and 125 points respectively in their last 2 games, and I like them to run up the score on one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA tonight. Deron Williams gives Utah the huge edge at the all-important point guard spot. Golden State's Stephen Curry is listed as questionable with a bum ankle, and he would lose this matchup even if he was healthy. Utah has won 3 straight against Golden State, and those 3 wins have all come by 9 or more points. Plus, this is a great spot to back the Jazz when you consider that they are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more, winning by an average of 5.6 points in this spot. Take Utah. |
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11-03-10 | Milwaukee Bucks +8 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 102-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference Game of the Month (ESPN) on Bucks +8
With both teams playing back-to-back, the more youthful Bucks will have the fresher legs tonight. Milwaukee has been as good as it gets when playing on consecutive nights. In fact, it is 18-4 ATS in its last 22 when playing on back-to-back days, winning by an average score of 100.0 to 95.0. For Boston, returning home after playing a game as a road favorite has been a tough spot. In fact, the Celtics are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games in this situation, only winning them by 3.4 points on average. Conversely, Milwaukee is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 road games after playing a game as a home favorite, winning by 2.0 points on average in this situation. The Bucks are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, including 3-0 ATS in Boston during this span. We'll bet the Bucks plus the points tonight. |
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10-29-10 | Denver Nuggets v. New Orleans Hornets +1.5 | Top | 95-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Hornets +1.5
New Orleans is not getting the credit it deserves on its home floor tonight. The Hornets were 24-17 at home last season despite playing without star point guard Chris Paul for a big chunk of the season. New Orleans was 28-13 at home the season before with a healthy Paul, and this is what I expect in 2010. Meanwhile, Denver was just 19-22 on the road a season ago. From the perspective of the point spread, I just can't justify taking Denver here. The Nuggets are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. I know they are coming off a big home win, but consider that they are 2-12-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a victory of more than 10 points. The Nuggets are also a lousy 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as a road favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. When the books projected a close game for Denver last season, it came out on the losing end a lot. In fact, Denver was just 3-12 ATS when the line was +3 to -3 a season ago, losing by an average of 6.2 points in these games. The Nuggets are also currently without 2 big pieces of the puzzle in Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen. Take the Hornets at home tonight. |
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10-27-10 | Miami Heat v. Philadelphia 76ers +8.5 | Top | 97-87 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +8.5
The Heat have some of the best talent in the league with LeBron James and Chris Bosh joining forces with Dwayne Wade, but it was very apparent last night that it will take these guys some time to mesh. I believe odds makers will be overvaluing the Heat early on, knowing the public fascination with the aforementioned superstars. This could lead to some strong plays, and that is the case tonight. The 76ers made a great hire in Doug Collins, and I fully expect him to have his boys ready to go. The Heat are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Philadelphia. Look for Philly to take the Heat right down to the wire at home tonight. Take the points. |
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10-26-10 | Houston Rockets +7.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 110-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Rockets +7.5
The odds makers love to overvalue defending champions in their first game of the season, and that is certainly the case here. While the Lakers are raising another championship banner to the rafters, the Rockets will be bound and determined to rain on the parade. Kobe Bryant's minutes are expected to be limited early in the season, and the Lakers will be without Andrew Bynum for another month. Yao Ming's minutes will be limited for Houston, but I do expect him to provide a big lift for the Rockets in his return. These two teams played 4 times last season and they split the two early season meetings. In those games, Houston posted a 10-point win at LA and a 1-point loss at home. With this in mind, I have no doubt that odds maker are giving LA too much respect out of the gate. Take the points as Houston gives the Lakers all they want tonight. |
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06-17-10 | Boston Celtics +7 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Game 7 Monster *BEST BET* on Celtics +7
This looks like it could be the last chance for Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett to win a championship as they are nearing the end of their careers. That will be enough motivation for the Big 3 right there. "It's all-out," Garnett said. "It's for the marbles, it's for everything, all-out. You save nothing. You leave nothing." Kendrick Perkins is out, but Glenn "Big Baby" Davis has shown that he can be very productive, and Rasheed Wallace has the potential for a strong game as well. He got great looks in Game 6. They just didn't go down. My money is on Wallace making the majority of those same shots tonight. Even in an embarrassing Game 6 loss, Boston's defense was still good, holding the Lakers to just 41.8% shooting. We can count on another superb defensive effort from the Celtics, and we can also count on a much better offensive performance. A major key will be Rajon Rondo and his ability to push the pace. If the Celtics can get stops, rebound and outlet the basketball like they did in Game 2, Rondo will have the opportunity to make a lot of plays in the open floor for himself and his teammates. The numbers are in our favor here when you consider that Boston is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games when revenging a road loss vs. an opponent over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 12.3 points in these spots. It is also worth noting that the Celtics are 15-5 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or less under coach Rivers, bouncing back to score 101.1 points in these spots while winning by 1.1 points on average. The Celtics are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss of more than 10 points. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS win. I expect a great game that should go right down to the wire tonight. Take the Celtics and the points. |
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06-15-10 | Boston Celtics v. Los Angeles Lakers -6.5 | Top | 67-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Week on Lakers -6.5
In Game 5, Kobe Bryant was the only player that showed up for the Lakers. The other guys have been called out, and I fully expect them to respond. The Lakers have been unbelievable at home all season, going 43-8 and winning by an average of 8.6 points. They are 9-1 at home in the 2010 playoffs, winning those 9 games by an average of 10.7 points. With this being a do-or-die game, I expect the defending champs to rise to the occasion. Guys like Odom, Artest and Fisher are far too talented to lay an egg for a third straight game. They will definitely benefit from the energy of the home crowd. Plus, history is on our side when you consider that plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 1 or more consecutive losses, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 95-50 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in this situation are winning by an average of 9.1 points per game. Expect the Lakers to make a major statement that they can still win this series with a dominant performance tonight. |
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06-13-10 | Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 86-92 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Game 5 *BEST BET* Lakers +2.5
With the extra day giving Andrew Bynum an opportunity to get extra treatment, I expect him to be much more effective than he was in Game 4. But if for some reason he isn't, I still really like the Lakers' chances here. Odom, Artest, Fisher and Bynum all know they must step up to help Bryant and Gasol, and I expect the help to be provided tonight, especially from Odom. Kobe Bryant is the best player on the floor, and I just don't see him letting LA fall behind in this series. If the role players can do their part, Bryant will take care of the rest. The key thing to note here is that the Lakers are 19-6 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996, winning these games by an average score of 99.8 to 93.0. And it is also worth noting that the Lakers are a perfect 9-0 straight up in this situation over the last 3 seasons. Remember that it took a tremendous effort from Boston's bench for the Celtics to win Game 4, and I just don't see those guys being able to provide that same spark tonight. Pound the Lakers! |
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06-10-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 190.5 | Top | 89-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Total of the Year on Lakers/Celtics UNDER 190.5
In the last two games of this series, neither team has shot better than 44.7 percent. I expect the defensive intensity to remain high in Game 4 with the Celtics especially taking things up another notch as this is a must-win game for them. As a result, I expect to see Game 4 come in well Under the number as well. The Lakers are 9-1 Under after allowing 85 points or less this season. Boston is 12-4 Under when revenging a home loss vs. an opponent this season. In addition, the Under is a perfect 4-0 in the Celtics' last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Also, we can't overlook how good of a job the Lakers are doing of getting back on defense to slow down Boston's transition game. Defense wins championships and both of these teams know that. Defense should also keep us Under this number. Best of Luck! |
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06-08-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Boston Celtics -2.5 | Top | 91-84 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Game 3 *BEST BET* (ABC) on Celtics -2.5
Boston returns home with the momentum and added confidence after their Game 2 win in LA. The Lakers are now just 3-10-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings with the Celtics, and they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Boston. The Lakers lost Games 3 and 4 in Oklahoma City and Phoenix in these playoffs against teams that aren't nearly as good defensively so it is no stretch to think Boston can take care of business on its home floor tonight. Having just 1 day of rest in between can be tough, especially when traveling across the country, and the Celtics have handled these situations much better than LA. In fact, the Lakers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 1 day of rest while the Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 day of rest. It is also worth noting that Boston has been money in the small chalk as it is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 or less. The Celtics are also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 NBA Finals games and I look for this impressive trend to continue tonight. Bet Boston! |
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06-06-10 | Boston Celtics +6 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 103-94 | Win | 100 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Celtics +6
Boston is a team of response, and there are plenty of trends that support this claim. In fact, Boston is 9-1 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 103.7 to 92.8. The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss of more than 10 points. The fact that this proud Celtics defense allowed more than 100 points for just the second time in their last 10 games will motivate them also. In fact, the Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Plus, the extra rest gives the veteran Celtics plenty of time to recuperate and to refocus, and it is also certainly worth noting that the Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 2 days rest. We also can't ignore the fact that the Celtics are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings and that 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two teams have been decided by a single points. Look for Boston to bounce back strong tonight. |
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05-29-10 | Los Angeles Lakers +1.5 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
5* Game 6 *BEST BET* (TNT) on Lakers +1.5
I know the Suns are back at home, but it will be very tough for them to recover from the blow that Ron Artest delivered to them with his buzzer beater. After watching Boston move on the Finals last night, the Lakers will be that much more focused to get the job done here so Boston won't have a huge edge in the rest department. The Lakers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. The Lakers are 37-15 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams allowing 99+ points/game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 108.8 to 101.8. Take the Lakers. |
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05-28-10 | Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics -3 | Top | 84-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year (ESPN) on Celtics -3
Boston has a very sour taste in its mouth after Game 5. Kendrick Perkins wrongfully ejected w/ 2 bogus technical foul calls, Glen Davis and Marquis Daniels enduring concussions and Rasheed Wallace twisting his back. Perkins will be back on the court tonight as one of his techs was rescinded, but Davis and Wallace are both game time decisions and Daniels is likely out. Boston was the more physical team through the first three games of this series, then it was severely outdone in the physicality department in Game 5. Look for Boston to respond at home tonight. Right away, I love the fact that favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who are outscoring their opponents by 3 or more points per game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are an incredible 84-36 ATS the last 5 seasons. In addition, favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, are 40-16 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in these situations are winning by an average of 10 and 10.3 points respectfully. Boston is also 23-11 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. an opponent over the last 3 seasons, winning by 8.6 points on average in these spots. The Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and the Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Look for Boston to bounce back strong and win this series tonight while covering the number in the process. |
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05-25-10 | Los Angeles Lakers -1 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 106-115 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
5* Game 4 *BEST BET* on Lakers -1
We cashed in with the Suns in Game 4 in their return home as I expected them to play better defense and to feed off the energy of their home crowd. That's exactly what happened, but there were some aberrations in Game 3 that lead me to believe that the Lakers will win tonight. First off, Robin Lopez scored 20 points, nearly 12 above his average. Secondly Amare Stoudemire scored 42 points, nearly 19 over his average. Lastly, the Lakers committed 17 turnovers and the Suns only committed 7. I don't expect Lopez and Stoudemire to have the same kind of nights in Game 4 and I don't expect the Suns to win the turnover battle so convincingly. With these numbers returning closer to normalcy tonight, I think the Lakers will prevail. Remember, LA has had the Suns' number, winning 11 of 15 meetings over the last 3 seasons and covering the spread in 10 of those games. I addition, Nash played a few more minutes that he is accustomed to playing and he was further banged up in Game 3, suffering a broken nose. I don't see him being quite as fresh and effective tonight either. The favorite has covered the number in the last 4 meetings and I look for this trend to continue. |
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05-22-10 | Orlando Magic +4 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 71-94 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
5* Game 3 *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Magic +4
Down 0-2, it's do-or-die time for the Magic and I expect them to do tonight. This series has been all about the underdog and the road team from a point spread standpoint. In fact, the underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the road team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We also can't overlook how good Orlando has been on the road - 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. From a point spread standpoint, the long layoff in between games does not bode well for Boston either as the Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Orlando has either won or lost by 4 or fewer points in each of the last 4 meetings so I will jump all over the Magic as they bounce back in Boston tonight. |
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05-19-10 | Phoenix Suns +7 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 112-124 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
5* 2010 NBA Playoffs Game of the Year (TNT) on Suns +7
The Suns have not lost back-to-back games in these playoffs. I expect them to show up extremely motivated to even this series tonight. In LA's first round Game 2, they barely survived the Thunder, lucky to get a 3-point win. In their second round Game 2, they defeated the Jazz by just 8 points. Phoenix is a better team than both the Thunder and the Jazz. It is explosive enough to hand the Lakers their first home loss of the playoffs tonight. Phoenix must do a better job defensively and they will. But let's face it. The Lakers just shot out of their minds in Game 1. They shot 58% from the field, including 47% from 3-point range. Meanwhile, Phoenix (a good 3-point shooting team), was only 5 of 22 from 3-point land. I expect the Suns to win this 3-point shooting battle tonight as LA cools off considerably. Right away I love our chances when you consider that plays on any team with a shooting percentage of 48% or better on the season, after a game where that team allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher, are 35-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. They are also are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. It is also important to note that the Lakers are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 1 days rest. Take the Suns and the points. |
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05-18-10 | Boston Celtics +7.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Celtics +7.5
Game 1 was no fluke. Ever since Boston was blown out at home in Game 3 of its Eastern Conference semifinal series with Cleveland, it has been brilliant. We're talking 4-0 straight up and against the spread with 3 outright wins as an underdog, and two of those came as a dog of 7 or more points. Boston's defense has been terrific, holding its opponents to 88 or fewer points in its last 4 games and 6 of its last 8. And Boston has shown that it can defend the Magic better than just about any other team in the league when you consider that it has held the Magic to 96 or fewer points in 9 of the last 10 meetings. Orlando had rolled to 8 straight wins in the playoffs and 14 straight overall before losing to Boston in Game 1. Now, Boston's confidence continues to soar while the Magic's takes a hit for the first time in a long time. The Celtics are 57-28-2 ATS in their last 87 games as a road underdog, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog. Plus, the underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Bet Boston. |
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05-16-10 | Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic UNDER 189.5 | Top | 92-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator on Celtics/Magic UNDER 189.5
This matchup has been an Unders machine as the Celtics are one of the few teams in the NBA that have proven they can defend the Magic consistently. In fact, we have seen 7 of the last 8 meetings play to the Under and 9 of the last 12 meetings in Orlando finish Under. And I also love the fact that road teams with a total of 180 to 189.5 points revenging a same season loss versus an opponent, if that opponent is off 2 or more consecutive road wins, are 72-36 to the Under since 1996, including 18-5 over the last 3 seasons and a perfect 1-0 this season. We are only seeing 181.1 total points scored on average in these games. The Under is 7-1 in the Celtics' last 8 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record and also 7-1 in the Magic's last 8 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Pound the Under. |
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05-13-10 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 196.5 | Top | 85-94 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator (ESPN) on Cavs/Celtics UNDER 196.5
Boston doesn't want to go back to Cleveland for a Game 7, and Cleveland is fighting for its playoff life. In other words, we can expect a very physical, defensive minded Game 6 in Boston tonight. Cleveland just gave up 120 points on its home floor so you can bet it will be tightening the screws defensively. And we can't ignore the fact that the Under is 28-13 in the Celtics' last 41 games following a win of more than 10 points. In addition, Boston is on a 17-4 Unders run after a huge blowout win by 30 or more, and we are only seeing 182.7 total points scored on average in these spots. Also, the Under is 7-1 in the Cavaliers' last 8 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and 26-12 in their last 38 games following a double-digit loss at home. Pound the Under. |
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05-11-10 | Boston Celtics v. Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5 | Top | 120-88 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* (TNT) on Cavaliers -7.5
Over the last 3 seasons, Cleveland is 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in home games against the Celtics, winning those games by 8 points on average. In Cleveland's last 7 home wins against Boston, we have seen winning margins of 8, 11, 31, 15, 5, 11 and 24 points for a 15-point average margin of victory. So right away, if we think Cleveland will win this game, recent history tells us that there is a very good chance it will win it by 8 or more points. Plus, plays on any team revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, are 74-38 ATS the last 5 seasons. Cleveland especially has been great when coming off a road defeat. In fact, Cleveland 13-4 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 10.9 points in these games. It is also 23-9 ATS off a road loss over the last 2 seasons period, winning by an average of 10.3 points in these games. In addition, the Cave are 16-6 ATS when listed as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 12.7 points in these games. Both of these teams have made adjustments following defeats in this series, resulting in big wins the following game, and I expect this trend to continue. |
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05-07-10 | Phoenix Suns v. San Antonio Spurs -6.5 | Top | 110-96 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Spurs -6.5
This may seem like a lot of points to be laying on a team that is down 0-2 in a series, but that's exactly what the books want Joe Public to think here. They have set a line that has the public piling on Phoenix and they'll look to score big when the Spurs cover this number. San Antonio is a different team at home where they are winning their games by an average of 8.2 points this season. Plus, it's not like this is the first time the Spurs have ever faced a two-game deficit in the playoffs. They will show no panic and they will be ready to answer the call. In addition, I have spotted a system that applies to home favorites who have lost 3 straight games to an opponent, provided both teams have winning percentages between 60 and 75%, which these two teams do. This system is an impressive 77-37 ATS since 1996, producing a winning margin of 7.7 points on average. I also love that the Spurs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite and 21-6-3 ATS in their last 30 playoff games as a favorite. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. This is a must-win game for San Antonio and I fully expect this veteran team to rise to the occasion. Lay the number. |
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05-06-10 | Atlanta Hawks +10 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 98-112 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Hawks +10
Expect the Hawks to show up in a big way tonight after being brutally embarrassed in Game 1. After a huge blowout loss like that, we can expect the public to continue to pile on the Magic in Game 2, but the numbers say we should do otherwise. In fact, plays on road teams revenging a road blowout loss of 30 points or more are 29-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in this situation have consistently been undervalued and are covering the number because they are only losing by 4.4 points on average. Plus, Atlanta is 12-3 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. greater than 70%) this season and is 8-1 ATS after being held to 85 points or less this season. The Hawks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Look for the Hawks to take the Magic down to the wire tonight. |
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05-04-10 | Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 199 | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Month on Jazz/Lakers UNDER 199
7 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams have finished Under the number with Game 1 of this series finally breaking the Unders streak. Game 1 only finished a few points over the number despite the Jazz allowing the Lakers to shoot over 53 percent from the field. I don't see that happening again tonight. Plus, the Lakers are well-known for playing a slower pace in the postseason than they do in the regular season. As a result, the Under is 20-8 in the Lakers' last 28 playoff games as a favorite and 16-5 in their last 21 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Under is also 12-5 in the Lakers' last 17 home games. The fact that odds makers have come back with basically the same line that was set for Game 1, despite that game going over, tells me that they are looking for action on the over. And they are getting it. We'll gladly go against the grain as both of these teams really buckle down defensively in what should be a very intense Game 2. Bet the Under. |
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05-03-10 | Boston Celtics +6.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 104-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Game of the Year on Celtics +6.5
The Celtics led by 11 points in the third quarter of Game 1, and they had their chances down the stretch, but did not cash in on their opportunities. They'll come back in Game 2 more focused and hungrier. Why am I so confident of this you ask? Boston is 15-3 straight up following their last 18 losses in the playoffs. And as we enter Game 2, we see that Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following a S.U. defeat and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following an ATS defeat. Conversely, Cleveland is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games following a S.U. win. This Cleveland team has been consistently overvalued at home and it is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 home games as a result. It is also just 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Celtics are an impressive 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as an underdog and I'll take them in that role here tonight. |
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05-02-10 | Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Lakers -7 | Top | 99-104 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Lakers -7
The Jazz made relatively easy work of Denver in round one, but they are now up against a team that has had their number. The Lakers are 3-1 against the Jazz this season with all 3 of those wins coming by double digits. In the Lakers' 2 home meetings in this matchup, they won by scores of 101-77 and 106-92. The Lakers play way better defense than the Nuggets and they are a much more disciplined offensive team. We can't ignore the fact that the Jazz are just 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog overall. It is also worth noting that the Jazz are 3-11 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Los Angeles against the Lakers. Take LA in Game 1. |
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04-30-10 | Atlanta Hawks -2 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 83-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Week on Hawks -2
I think you'll all agree with me that Atlanta is the more talented team. Milwaukee has played harder and smarter the last 3 games and it has won them all as a result, but I can't see the more talented side losing 4 straight times. This is one of the most motivated spots I've seen the Hawks in all season. They are playing with triple revenge and facing elimination after completely blowing Game 5 in the closing minutes. If the Hawks have any heart at all, and I think they do, they'll win this game comfortably tonight. Road favorites that are out to revenge an upset loss as a home favorite are 77-37 ATS the last 14 seasons, including 4-1 ATS this season. The favorite is 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings between these two teams. The Bucks are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 playoff games as an underdog. The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a small favorite of 4.5 or less points. The Hawks have the better players and the motivation, and this should result in a big win tonight. |
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04-28-10 | Utah Jazz v. Denver Nuggets -7 | Top | 102-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Nuggets -7
The Lakers returned home after back-to-back defeats to the Thunder and took care of business last night. The Mavs also returned home after 3 straight defeats to the Spurs and gave San Antonio a beating last night. I expect the Nuggets to follow suit here in this do-or-die Game 5. First off, I love the fact that plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 1 or more consecutive losses, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 70-32 ATS the last 3 seasons, including 20-9 ATS this season. Denver has been sensational at home all season long, carrying a 35-8 record and an average winning margin of 8.8 points. In fact, Denver is an awesome 16-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 113.7 to 98.3 in these spots. When Utah has been catching big points on the road, it has been for good reason. The Jazz are only 2-7 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Jazz are also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Denver. Pound the Nuggets. |
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04-25-10 | Dallas Mavericks +2.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 89-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Revenge Game of the Year on Mavs +2.5
Off back-to-back defeats, look for the Mavs to finally have their revenge today. Dallas is the best road team in the NBA, and it has had San Antonio's number. It is the deeper team as well. It let game 3 slip away, blowing a 68-59 second half lead, and I can't see it letting game 4 slip away as well. Right away you have to like the fact that the Mavericks are 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings in San Antonio and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. In addition, the Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 or less points. Dallas is 20-9 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 6.3 points in these spots, and 13-4 ATS in road games off a road loss over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 8.6 in these spots. Bet the Mavs. |
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04-24-10 | Los Angeles Lakers +2 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 89-110 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Lakers +2
All the talk is about how the youngest team in the NBA has hung with the defending NBA champs. Expect the Lakers to hush up that talk tonight with an outright win. The Lakers had Game 3 in the bag had Kobe not gone ice cold in the 4th, and I don't see him staying cold tonight. The Lakers want this one badly so they can go back to LA with a chance to close out the series. The Lakers have won 12 of their last 14 games against the Thunder so we shouldn't be ready to write the Lakers off after one loss. Plain and simple, this is a statement game for LA, and I expect it to make the statement that it is still the team to beat. The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog and we'll take the points. |
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04-23-10 | Dallas Mavericks +3.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 90-94 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
5* Friday NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Mavericks +3.5
The Mavericks are the better team in this series, and I expect them to flex their muscles tonight. The Mavs are coming off an upset loss in Game 2, but that's not a bad situation for them to be in when you consider that they are 14-3 ATS in road games off an upset loss over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 103 to 94.8 in these games. Meanwhile, San Antonio is just 6-15 ATS off a road win this season. Dallas is 27-14 on the road this season, which is good for the best road mark in the NBA. In other words, the Mavs can win on the road. They are an impressive 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Mavericks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home. They are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings in San Antonio. It is also worth noting that the Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Look for the Mavs to bounce back strong in Game 3. |
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04-22-10 | Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 96-101 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Lakers +3.5
The Thunder were dumbfounded after game 2 because, as head coach Scott Brooks put it, they played as well as they have played all season and still came away with a loss. What's even harder to swallow is the fact that the Lakers didn't even play close to their best. Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol had big nights, but Lamar Odom, Ron Artest, Derek Fisher and Andrew Bynum didn't show up. The supporting cast will play much better tonight. Plus, expect Artest to play much better defense against Durant after letting him go off for 32 points. The Thunder had nothing to lose when playing in L.A. as not many expected them to steal a game anyway. But now they are back home, down 0-2, and you can bet they'll be pressing tonight knowing they need this one to give themselves a chance. The Lakers don't want this series to drag out. They would really like to get the sweep so Kobe and some of the other banged up guys can get some extra rest and treatment before their second round series. With this in mind, the Lakers will be very hungry and focused on the task at hand. Plus, the last time the Lakers visited Oklahoma City, they were embarrassed. The Thunder held them to only 75 points in a 16-point defeat. That loss will only serve as extra motivation for L.A. to show up tonight. It's not often you can get the Lakers catching points, but they have been a solid bet when you can. The Lakers are 33-18 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog. Take the Lakers and the points. |
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04-21-10 | San Antonio Spurs +3.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 102-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Spurs +3.5
The Spurs aren't going to go down without a fight. Dallas has won a lot of games at home this season, but it has not won them by much. In fact, Dallas is just 11-29 ATS in home games this season, only winning by 2.3 points on average. Dallas is also just 3-11 ATS in a home game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season, only winning these games by 1.4 points on average. The Mavericks are only 7-27-1 ATS in their last 35 games as a home favorite and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Lastly, the Spurs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Expect the Spurs to tighten the screws defensively and steal game 2. Take the points. |
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04-20-10 | Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics -1 | Top | 77-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Celtics -1
No Kevin Garnett tonight, no problem. Boston won Game 1 despite Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen combining to go just 10 of 32 from the field. You can bet they won't shoot as poorly tonight, giving the Celtics more than enough offensive fire power to win without KG. Boston has had Miami's number, having won 6 in a row by 4 or more points. In fact, it is 11-1 against Miami the last 3 seasons, including a perfect 6-0 at home. Revenge has not been enough motivation for Miami to get the job done either. The Heat are just 6-19 ATS in road games when revenging 4 losses vs. an opponent in the last 2 years, losing in these spots by an average score of 85.6 to 95.7. The Heat are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog. The Celtics are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games. The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Look for the rest of the Celtics to rally in KG's absence to go up 2-0 tonight. |
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04-19-10 | Utah Jazz +7 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Game of the Year on Jazz +7
I'll gladly take the generous amount of points here as I expect Game 2 to go right down to the wire with the Jazz having an excellent opportunity to win this one outright. I know Utah is now without Mehmet Okur in addition to Andrei Kirilenko, but Okur isn't a big loss on the defensive end, and that's where you'll see huge improvement from Utah tonight. The numbers don't lie: Utah is 16-4 ATS off a road loss this season, holding its opponents to just 99.3 points in these spots, 13-1 ATS after a road game where both teams scored 100 or more points this season, holding its opponents to just 94.8 points in these situations, 8-1 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more this season, only allowing 99.2 points in these spots and 17-5 ATS after allowing 105 points or more this season, clamping down to only give up 98.5 points in these spots. The Jazz are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss of more than 10 points and 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. loss period. Utah is one of the very best bounce back teams in the NBA because of the way they up their intensity on defense following a loss, and I'll pound them in this bounce back spot tonight. |
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04-18-10 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Lakers -7.5 | Top | 79-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* Blowout on Lakers -7.5
Look for the Lakers to send a message to the Thunder with a blowout win in Game 1. These two teams last faced off March 26th and the Lakers were crushed 75-91. That loss will serve as a motivator today. In fact, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where they scored less than 85 points, off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite, are 22-4 ATS since 1996, including 9-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. And teams in this situation are winning by 13.1 points on average. The playoffs are a different animal, something the experienced Lakers will be ready for and the youthful Thunder will not. Lay the points. |
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04-17-10 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Atlanta Hawks -8.5 | Top | 92-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* Blowout on Hawks -8.5
Atlanta has gained some nice playoff experience the last couple years, and now it's ready to make a serious run at the Eastern Conference title. Last year's exit, an ugly 4-game sweep at the hand of Cleveland, will be the driving force this time around. Milwaukee is at a big disadvantage in the talent and depth department with starting center Andrew Bogut going down. The Hawks certainly have the athletes to really take advantage of his absence. The youth of Brandon Jennings will show in this series as well. The youngster is no doubt talented, but he still has a lot to learn about shot selection and running a team. The favorite is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Bucks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog. The Hawks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Lay the points. |
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04-12-10 | Oklahoma City Thunder +2 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 95-103 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
5* Monday NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +2
If the Thunder have any hope of avoiding the Lakers in the first round of the playoffs, they need to win tonight. As if this isn't enough motivation, the Thunder lost to the lowly Warriors Sunday. Besides motivation, OKC catches a big break with Brandon Roy not expected to play tonight. This also has the look of a letdown spot for Portland after such an emotional win over the Lakers Sunday. OKC is a tremendous 25-7 ATS after a game where it failed to cover the spread this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 104.4 to 97.7. The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog period. The Trail Blazers are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the Thunder. |
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04-11-10 | Portland Trail Blazers -2 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 91-88 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
5* Sunday NBA *BEST BET* (ABC) on Blazers +4 (line of -2 in system was an error) With home court in the Western Conference already wrapped up, the Lakers can afford to continue to rest Kobe Bryant. If he does play, it won't be big minutes. This game means a lot more to the Blazers as they want to keep winning to avoid the No. 8 spot and the Lakers in the first round of the playoffs. The Lakers would like to avoid Portland in the playoffs too as they have lost 9 of their last 10 at the Rose Garden. The Lakers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win. Pound Portland.
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04-10-10 | Boston Celtics +2 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 105-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
5* 2010 NBA Game of the Year on Celtics +2
I went against the Celtics last night with the 11.5-point underdog Wizards, who handed Bean Town a 10 point loss. The Celtics trailed by as many as 28 points. This is a veteran team with 3 Hall of Famers, and it was incredibly embarrassed last night. Look for the Celtics to save face by responding in a big way in Milwaukee. Boston should be further motivated by a 2-point defeat it suffered in Milwaukee last month. Motivation is a big part of this play, but the other big part has to do with the interior matchups. The Bucks are without arguably their best player, Andrew Bogut, and that opens things up for Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins to both have their way down low. I just can't see the Bucks overcoming the loss of Bogut in this game when you consider that he is averaging 25.0 points and 15.5 rebounds against the Celtics this season. He had 25 points and 17 rebounds in Milwaukee's 86-84 victory March 9. That's a lot of points and rebounds to make up for and I just don't see it getting done. While Boston is a veteran team, it has actually been quite successful when playing without any rest. In fact, the Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on zero days rest. This team has been a cash cow in the road dog role too. The Celtics are 52-25-2 ATS in their last 79 games as a road underdog and 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Look for Boston to make a statement with a big win tonight. |
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04-09-10 | Dallas Mavericks +4 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 83-77 | Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
5* Friday NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks +4
Portland is playing well, but I give the edge to the Mavs in this highly motivated spot tonight. With a win, and a Spurs loss, the Mavs can clinch the Southwest Division. Plus, they are still battling for the No. 2 seed in the West. In addition, the Mavs have lost all 3 prior meetings to the Blazers this season so they will be very hungry to pay Portland back. The underdog has dominated this matchup. In fact, the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. The Trail Blazers are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. We'll take the Mavs and the points. |
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04-08-10 | Los Angeles Lakers +2 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 96-98 | Push | 0 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
5* NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Lakers +2
This is a tough spot for Denver playing back-to-back against a well-rested Lakers team that will be hungry after getting absolutely embarrassed by the Spurs Sunday. Any time you catch the Lakers in the underdog role, they are worth a look. In fact, they are 29-14-2 ATS in their last 45 games as a road underdog. Furthermore, the Lakers are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. In other words, this is a team that typically responds well. The Nuggets have been a fool's gold favorite as they are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Plus, they are only 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games playing on zero day's rest. With the Nuggets being a team the Lakers could end up seeing in the playoffs again, look for LA to send a message that it is clearly the best in the West tonight. |
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04-07-10 | San Antonio Spurs v. Phoenix Suns -6.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
5* ESPN Game of the Year on Suns -6.5
The Spurs were lucky to come away with a win in Sacramento last night, but they will have no such luck on their side tonight. Tony Parker was cleared to play a bit sooner than expected, but he is not expected to play big minutes. This proves crucial here since George Hill is out injured. Without an experienced point guard to help the Spurs control the flow of the game, there will be nothing standing in the way of a rested Suns team making this one a track meet. This veteran Spurs team has struggled in back-to-backs to begin with and will certainly have its work cut out for itself against the most potent offensive team in the NBA. You have to love the fact that history is strongly on our side. Here's what I mean: plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points playing on back-to-back days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are an impressive 71-32 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Spurs have played a lot of games in few days while the Suns haven't played since Saturday and this should catch up with San Antonio here. Plus, Phoenix is 15-3 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers per game, in the 2nd half of the season this season, winning in these spots by 10.1 points on average. The Suns are also an unbeaten 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Pound the Suns. |
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04-06-10 | San Antonio Spurs v. Sacramento Kings +6.5 | Top | 95-86 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
5* Never Lost Tuesday NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +6.5
The San Antonio Spurs were already playing without All-Star point guard Tony Parker. Now, they'll be playing without his replacement tonight. George Hill is expected to miss at least two games. He has averaged 15.8 points in 41 games as a starter this season. Now Manu Ginobli is really the only guy San Antonio has that can create for himself and others, and this has coach Popovich worried. "I'm a little worried about everything that's coming up now without George," coach Popovich said. "It's going to be difficult to ... have Manu (Ginobili) play the point in all these games coming up. We'll have to figure something out." It's likely they won't have that "something" figured out tonight. Plus, after a huge win over the Lakers to secure a playoff spot, this one has letdown written all over it. Kings Rookie of the Year candidate Tyreke Evans is coming off one of his worst performances, shooting just 2 of 12 and finishing with six points. Expect a big bounce back game from him tonight. San Antonio is 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 88.5 to 96.8. The Kings have either won, or lost by 3 or fewer points in their last 5 home games against the Spurs. We'll take the points tonight. |
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04-05-10 | Butler v. Duke -7.5 | Top | 59-61 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
5* National Championship Game *BEST BET* on Duke -7.5
There is no question that Butler is a very, very good basketball team. I wouldn't have taken them against Michigan State in the Final Four if I didn't think so. But that game pointed out Butler's biggest weakness, it's offense. The Bulldogs have endured some lengthy scoring droughts and I foresee more of those tonight against a very good defensive team. Gordon Hayward started out very aggressive against Michigan State in the first half, but then he wasn't looking for his shot much in the second. He is a phenomenal talent, but he is not a selfish player. He lacks that killer instinct that the best scorers have. Because Butler is getting nothing from their inside game with Matt Howard, they will rely on Hayward more than ever tonight, and I just don't think he'll be enough. Duke has a lot more offensive fire power with its big 3 of Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith. Defensively Duke has been superb as well, and it has dominated the glass. This is another huge area of concern for the Bulldogs. They aren't a great rebounding team. We can count on Duke cleaning up the glass, and that means that the Bulldogs won't get a lot of second chance points. In other words, Butler is going to have to shoot a very high percentage to cover this number, and I just don't see it happening. Consider that Duke is a strong 12-5 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 64 or less points per game this season, beating these teams by an average score of 71.8 to 59.7. Duke is also 9-1 ATS after a game committing 8 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and I'll take them in that role tonight. |
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04-04-10 | Minnesota Timberwolves +12 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
5* Sunday NBA *BEST BET* on T-Wolves +12
This is a big letdown spot for OKC after such a big win over the Mavs last night to clinch a playoff spot. Plus, the T-Wolves will be extremely motivated after getting crushed by OKC by 17 points the last time these two teams faced off. That lopsided affair was certainly out of the ordinary as Minnesota had either won or lost by 7 or fewer points in the 8 previous meetings. Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points revenging a road loss vs. an opponent, with a losing record, are 104-56 ATS the last 5 seasons, including 7-3 ATS this season. Plus, Minnesota is 20-8 ATS in road games when revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, only losing in these spots by 7.3 points on average. Lastly, the Timberwolves are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. We |
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04-03-10 | West Virginia v. Duke -2 | Top | 57-78 | Win | 100 | 30 h 37 m | Show |
5* Final Four *BEST BET* on Duke -2
If West Virginia, a team that normally shoots only 33.6% from three-point range, doesn't go off from deep against Kentucky, finishing 10 of 23 from beyond the arc, and if Kentucky doesn't shoot just 4 of 32 from deep, there's a good chance the Mountaineers aren't in the Final Four. The thing to note is that Kentucky had a lot of wide open looks it just missed. What was even more unlikely was that Joe Mazzula was the best player on the floor for much of that game. Duke beat Baylor by 7 points despite only shooting 36.1% from the field so it has proven that it can win without shooting the ball well, something that couldn't be said about last year's Blue Devils. I'm willing to bet WVU won't shoot the lights out from 3 again, that Duke won't go 4 of 32 like Kentucky did and that Mazzula won't have the kind of game he did in the Elite 8. WVU also benefited from 16 Kentucky turnovers. Duke just doesn't turn the ball over. That means bad news for the Mountaineers as they are just 1-7 ATS versus excellent ball handling teams committing 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season. Plus, Coach K has been here and done this 11 times now. Huggins only 1 other time. I'll go large with Duke Saturday. Best of Luck. |
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04-02-10 | Atlanta Hawks +5.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 88-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year on Hawks +5.5
The Hawks are extremely confident heading into this one after a convincing win over the Lakers. After getting punished in the playoffs by Cleveland last season, the Hawks have played the Cavs tough in two meetings this season but they have come up short in each. Look for the third time to be the charm for the Hawks tonight. The Cavs have struggled without Anderson Varejao, who won't be at full strength if he does go tonight. He is their energy guy and they have looked lethargic at times in each of their last two games without him in the lineup. Atlanta has played up to the level of its competition this season. In fact, it is 11-2 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) this season, defeating these teams by an average score of 96.7 to 91.2. The Hawks are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Cavaliers are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the Hawks and the points tonight. |
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04-01-10 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Denver Nuggets -5 | Top | 92-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Nuggets -5
It's gut check time for the Nuggets tonight. They return home after a 5-game road trip where they were brutal and I fully expect them to make a statement. The Nuggets are 30-6 at home on the season where they are winning by 9.4 points on average. The home team has dominated this matchup to the tune of 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Plus, the Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Denver and 10-25-1 ATS in the last 36 meetings overall. The Nuggets are 52-25-3 ATS in their last 80 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 38-15-2 ATS in their last 55 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Lay the points. |
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03-30-10 | Dayton v. Mississippi +1.5 | Top | 68-63 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
5* NIT Game of the Year on Ole Miss +1.5
Dayton is a good ball club, but I really believe Ole Miss is the better team from the better conference. I give the Rebels a big edge here because this game is being played on a neutral court. Ole Miss has been the better team when playing away from home this season. Dayton is 7-10 SU and 7-9-1 ATS when playing away from home this season. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is 8-6 SU and 10-4 ATS when playing away from home this season. Dayton has struggled with teams that can really score the basketball, losing 2 of 3 to Xavier this season because it lacked that little extra offensive punch. Well, Ole Miss can certainly score it. The Rebels average 8.7 more ppg than the Flyers do. We find ourselves in a unique, highly profitable situation tonight as the Rebels are an impressive 14-4 ATS after allowing 75 or more points in consecutive games under coach Kennedy, winning these games by an average score of 77.1 to 69.5. The Rebs are also on a 31-15 ATS run after scoring 80 points or more in a game under coach Kennedy, winning these games by an average score of 79.4 to 72.0. We also can't overlook the fact that Dayton is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 neutral site games and just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 neutral site contests as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Rebels are an impressive 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog. I feel strongly enough that Ole Miss will win this one outright that I have made it my strongest play in the NIT this season. Best of Luck. |
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03-28-10 | Baylor +5 v. Duke | Top | 71-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
5* Elite 8 *BEST BET* on Baylor +5
We saw Baylor feed off of the crowd in Friday's impressive win over Saint Mary's as many Baylor fans made the trip to Houston. I expect the crowd to play a big factor in this one as well. Duke was able to get past Purdue because it dominated the boards, but it won't have the same success against a Baylor squad that is very long and very athletic up front. Duke has proven to be fade material in the tournament when in the small chalk. In fact, the Blue Devils are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. In addition, Baylor is 8-2 ATS when playing top caliber teams who outscore their opponents by 12 or more points per game this season. Baylor is actually defeating these teams 7.5 points on average. Baylor matches up with Duke very well. In fact, Duke is going to have a tougher time matching up with Baylor. We saw Duke struggle a couple times this season against a big Georgia Tech team. It is also worth noting that Baylor shoots the 3 a lot better than Duke. The Bears have shot it as a 40.9% clip outside their home gym while Duke has only shot it at 34.3%. Take Baylor and the points. |
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03-27-10 | Butler v. Kansas State -4 | Top | 63-56 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
5* Elite 8 Game of the Year on K-State -4
Butler is a really good team, but their tournament run comes to an end this afternoon. After getting a major scare from Xavier, and knowing that Butler knocked out Syracuse, expect the more talented Wildcats to show up that much more focused today. This time of year, a couple things really matter, experience and good guard play. Both teams have experience on their side, but K-State has the overwhelming advantage at the guard positions. No one has had an answer for Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen in this tournament, and I don't think Butler will be the team to break the mold. The Wildcats are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games, 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Horizon League. Lay the points with K-State. |
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03-26-10 | Northern Iowa v. Michigan State | Top | 52-59 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
5* Friday Sweet 16 *BEST BET* on Michigan State pk
I know Michigan State is without Kalin Lucas, and Chris Allen and Delvon Roe are banged up, but this is still a big, physical, squad that has been here and done that before. And this squad is playing for a coach that has been here and done that a lot. Northern Iowa is a good basketball team, but the fact that it relies so heavily on perimeter scoring will finally catch up with the Panthers tonight. Expect the Spartans to kill the Panthers on the boards. Michigan State is 10-1 ATS when playing away from home after a game where it outrebounding an opponent by 15 or more over the last 3 seasons. I've grabbed the Spartans at a pick, but they opened as a 1.5-point favorite and are still a 1-point fave at many books. The fact that they opened as a fave could prove to be quite crucial as they are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 or less points and 21-6-2 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite of 6.5 or less period. The Panthers started to really pee down their legs when Kansas started pressuring them late in the game. Expect coach Izzo to take note of that and apply the pressure much sooner. Also, expect the Spartans to really look to hammer the ball inside to take advantage of their physical bodies. We'll pound Michigan State. |
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03-25-10 | Xavier +5 v. Kansas State | Top | 96-101 | Push | 0 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
5* Sweet 16 Game of the Year on Xavier +5
When these two teams met earlier this season, K-State won on its home floor by 15 points over Xavier. That was a payback game. The Wildcats were hungry to avenge a 26-point defeat to Xavier in the previous meeting. Now it's time for Xavier to have it revenge on a neutral floor. Playing teams like N. Texas and BYU in the early rounds isn't the same preparation as playing teams like Minnesota and Pitt. I look for Xavier to be the more intense, physical team tonight. I love the way the Musketeers compete no matter who they are playing. That's a big reason why they are 17-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons. You also have to like the fact that Xavier is 8-1 ATS in NCAA tournament games over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average of 4.7 points. The Musketeers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games as an underdog and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. I still don't feel this Xavier team is getting the respect it deserves. Take the points. |
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03-23-10 | Indiana Pacers v. Detroit Pistons -3 | Top | 98-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
5* Tuesday NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons -3
The Pistons just fell in Indiana by 4 points on Friday so they will be hungry to return the favor at home tonight. That hunger should have grown after the Pistons turned in one of their worst performances of the season against the Cavs Sunday. In fact, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (line opened at -3.5) revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, are 37-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. Plus, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. a division opponent, off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a division rival, are 32-11 ATS since 1996, including 11-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. Indiana comes in having lost 9 straight road games with all of those losses coming by at least 4 points. In fact, the Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. We'll lay the points with the Pistons. |
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03-21-10 | Michigan State +1 v. Maryland | Top | 85-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
5* Sunday NCAA Tourney *BEST BET* on Michigan State +1
The experience of Kalin Lucas and company in these big games should keep the defending national runner-up marching on. Michigan State has proven to be a strong team on neutral courts. The Spartans are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games as an underdog and 17-6 ATS in their last 23 as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less. Meanwhile, Maryland is just 10-22 ATS its last 32 as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less. Defense wins championships this time of year and Michigan State is the better defensive team, only allowing 63.8 ppg. Michigan State is also the best rebounding team in the nation in terms of rebounding margin. It outrebounds its opponents by 9.4 per game. I'll take the team with more tournament experience, the better defensive team and the better rebounding team today. |
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03-20-10 | Ohio v. Tennessee -8 | Top | 68-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
5* 2010 NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Tennessee -8
Beating a school like Georgetown is like winning the whole thing for a school like Ohio. Tennessee, on the other hand, has much bigger goals. Unfortunately for Ohio, their Cinderella run ends here. While it's not uncommon for some of these higher seeds to sneak up on a first round opponent, the cat is usually out of the bag come the second round. Expect Tennessee, which is a much better defensive team than Georgetown, to be ready. Ohio was able to score 97 points in its win over Georgetown while shooting a ridiculous 58.2% from the field. It would take a similar effort to beat the Vols today and I just don't see it happening. Defensively, the Vols are long and they are relentless. They only allow 64.9 ppg on 39.4% shooting. And after a lackluster offensive effort against San Diego State, I expect Tennessee to really kick things into high gear against a team that allowed Georgetown to shoot over 50% from the field. Expect a big letdown from Ohio today as the Vols march on with a double digit win. Best of Luck. |
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03-19-10 | Siena v. Purdue -4 | Top | 64-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
5* Friday NCAA Tourney *BEST BET* on Purdue -4
Purdue has heard a lot of analysts putting it on upset alert now that Robbie Hummel has been lost for the season, but I expect the Boilermakers to be motivated enough to shut all the doubters up in this one. Purdue will be further motivated by laying an egg against Minnesota in its last game. Siena has played well in the NCAA Tourney in recent years, but I'm not sold on this year's team. Siena was crushed by N. Iowa by 17 points and by Butler by 17 points as well, and I can assure you that this Purdue team is every bit as good as those two teams even without Hummel. It doesn't happen often so there isn't much data here, but it is still worth noting that the Boilermakers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss of more than 20 points. They are also 12-4 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more under coach Painter. But here's the clincher: plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have failed to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams (>= 80%) are 19-2 ATS the last 3 seasons, including a perfect 1-0 ATS this season. Lay the points. |
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03-18-10 | San Diego State v. Tennessee -3 | Top | 59-62 | Push | 0 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament 1st Round Game of the Year on Tennessee -3
In Tennessee, we have a team that has wins over both Kansas and Kentucky so we certainly know what it is capable of when at the top of its game. After getting completely embarrassed by Kentucky in the SEC tourney, I expect to see an extremely hungry and focused team. Right away, I love the fact that plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (line opened at -4), a team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off a loss to a conference rival, are 50-21 ATS since 1997, including 22-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. I also like that the Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. poor free throw shooting teams making 63% of their attempts or worse over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 83.9 to 70.4. I'll take a motivated Tennessee squad laying a small number in round one. |
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03-13-10 | Kansas State +5.5 v. Kansas | Top | 64-72 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
5* Big 12 Tourney Game of the Year (ESPN) on Kansas State +5.5
Kansas State wants this one bad! The Wildcats gave the Jayhawks all they wanted and more in the season's first meeting, losing by just 2 points in overtime. The second meeting, at Kansas, saw the Jayhawks shoot out of their minds in a convincing win. That win actually plays in our favor here though. Not only does a loss like that really motivate the losing team, especially one as good as K-State, but it also forces odds makers to increase the point spread. I just don't think Kansas is 6 points better on a neutral floor, not with the motivation that K-State has after two prior defeats. Kansas has been overvalued all season because of the betting attention that the No. 1 team in the country receives. It's an easy way for the books to make money. Jack up the line on Kansas and collect when they don't cover the spread. In fact, the Jayhawks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. win and just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win. The Wildcats have been the better teams to back. They are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 games overall, 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. We'll take the points. |
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03-12-10 | Dayton v. Xavier -3 | Top | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
5* Conference Tournament Game of the Year on Xavier -3
Ever since Xavier was absolutely embarrassed by Dayton, losing 65-90, the Musketeers have been on an absolute tear, winning 7 in a row with 5 of those wins coming by double digits. You can bet Xavier was hoping it would get a chance to face Dayton again. Well, it gets that chance this evening and I expect the Musketeers to get their revenge. Right away, I love the fact that plays on any team revenging a blowout loss of 20 points or more, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, are 32-9 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Flyers enter at 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Xavier is 17-6 ATS as a favorite this season, 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a S.U. win of more than 20 points and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game. Look for Xavier to roll tonight. |
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03-11-10 | Oregon State +9 v. Washington | Top | 52-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
5* Pac-10 Tourney Game of the Year (FSN) on Oregon State +9
The Beavers will be out for revenge tonight after losing by 6 and 12 points to Washington during the regular season. Oregon State has to be excited to get another crack at the Huskies with a chance to burst their bubble. Right away, I love that Oregon State is 15-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season, winning these games by an average score of 60.8 to 59.5. And that's not all. The Beavers are 24-5 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Plus, the Huskies are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games and 1-8 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Take the Beavers and the points. |
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03-10-10 | Robert Morris +4.5 v. Quinnipiac | Top | 52-50 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
5* NEC Game of the Year (ESPN 2) on Robert Morris +4.5
With revenge on the mind for an earlier season loss, and with an NCAA Tournament berth on the line, I'll take Robert Morris and the points this evening. Robert Morris appeared to have the league title in the bag until it dropped 2 of its last 3 conference games to Quinnipiac and Mount St. Mary's. Last game, Robert Morris avenged its loss to Mount St. Mary's with an 80-62 blowout win, and I expect the Colonials to win this one outright tonight. Mount St. Mary's had come into the conference tourney as the hottest team in the league, but Robert Morris dominated. You know how the old saying goes, "defense wins championships", and Robert Morris is the more capable defensive team. The Colonials have won 4 of the last 5 and 8 of the last 10 in this series. Quinnipiac may have the home court advantage here, but I don't think it will be enough. Plays against home teams as a favorite or pick, a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games, are 52-25 ATS the last 5 seasons. We'll take Robert Morris and the points. |
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03-09-10 | Miami Heat +3.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats | Top | 78-83 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA System Play of the Month on Heat +3.5
I feel this is a great spot to back the Heat tonight. Miami is playing some of its best ball of the season, having won 3 straight with 2 of those wins coming over the Lakers and Hawks. So momentum is on its side. Motivation is also on its side. The last time these teams faced off, the Bobcats handed the Heat an embarrassing 104-65 loss. Trust me, that one is not sitting well with D. Wade and company. Expect a big game from Wade tonight and for the Heat to pull the upset. Plays on road underdogs revenging a road blowout loss of 30 points or more are 25-9 ATS the last 5 seasons, and when that dog is well rested only playing its 2nd game in 5 days, the situation improves to 23-4 ATS the last 5 seasons (85.2%). These numbers are too telling to ignore. We'll play by the numbers tonight! |
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03-09-10 | Providence +6.5 v. Seton Hall | Top | 106-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
5* Big East Tourney *BEST BET* (ESPN U) on Providence +6.5
I really like Providence catching a generous amount of points tonight. The Friars enter this contest having lost 10 in a row so they will be very hungry. On top of that, they will be a dangerous team because they have nothing to lose here. Seton Hall, who has a chance to play itself into the NCAAB Tournament is facing far more pressure. These two teams just played each other Saturday with Seton Hall coming out on top by 12 points, but it is an extremely difficult task to win again in these kind of spots. The losing team is usually hungrier and odds makers usually overvalued the winning team as that is the one the public tends to flock to. Furthermore, it's hard to justify laying points with Seton Hall when you consider that the Pirates are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite, 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games overall and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. Meanwhile, the Friars are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home and the underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Pound Providence. |
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03-07-10 | Portland Trail Blazers +7 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 106-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
5* Sunday NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Blazers +7
Expect the rested Blazers (haven't played since Mar. 3), winners of 5 of their last 6 SU & ATS, to play really well against their division rival tonight. While Denver is 27-5 at home this season, it is only 16-15-1 ATS in those games. Portland is 17-14 on the road, but a strong 20-10-1 ATS in those games. While Portland is rested, Denver is not. Carmelo has been receiving additional intravenous fluids because he's been so run down. In fact, Denver is only 5-13 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season, only winning in these spots 2.7 points on average. I also like that Portland is 8-1 ATS versus poor defensive teams allowing 99+ points per game in the 2nd half of the season this season. The Trail Blazers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. It is also worth noting that the Nuggets are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite. We'll take the points. |
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03-06-10 | Tulsa +7.5 v. Memphis | Top | 53-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
5* 2010 NCAAB Game of the Year on Tulsa +7.5
This is a big revenge game for Tulsa after falling to Memphis earlier this season. A major key here is Tulsa's rebounding edge. Tulsa is 7-0 ATS versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds per game on the season after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Plus, Memphis is 0-8 ATS after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds this season. In addition, Memphis is just 6-15 ATS as a favorite this season and 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games as a home favorite. The Golden Hurricane want this one bad, so much so that they nearly got caught looking ahead last game. No matter how good some of the Tulsa teams have been in recent years, they have all played second fiddle to Memphis. Now, I really believe Tulsa is the better team. I really expect Tulsa to win this game outright as a 7.5-point dog, and that's why I have made the Golden Hurricane my Game of the Year. Best of Luck. |
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03-05-10 | Santa Clara +4 v. San Diego | Top | 59-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
5* WCC Game of the Year on Santa Clara +4
Santa Clara and San Diego both finished 3-11 in WCC play, splitting during the regular season, but I really believe Santa Clara is the better team playing better basketball right now. And it should be the hungrier team tonight as it looks to snap a 3-game skid. With this is mind, I just can't justify San Diego as a 4-point favorite. In fact, I really believe the wrong team is favored here. First off, the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these two schools. Secondly, the Toreros are only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite, 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 vs. the WCC, 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games overall and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. Thirdly, the Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games as an underdog and 7-0 ATS when playing away from home after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Take the points. |
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03-05-10 | New Orleans Hornets +8 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 91-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
5* ESPN Game of the Month on Hornets +8
Off 3 straight defeats, the Hornets will be extremely hungry tonight, especially since one of those defeats was to the Spurs on Monday. The Spurs haven't played since that Monday game, but that could prove to be too much time off when you consider that they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest. It's also hard to lay this many points with the Spurs when you consider that they are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. It makes it even more difficult to lay those points when you see that the Hornets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Plus, one day of rest is usually sufficient for the Hornets as they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. We'll take the points. |
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03-04-10 | Utah Jazz +1.5 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
5* NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Jazz +1.5
Rarely does Utah ever lose 2 in a row. In fact, the Jazz have not lost back-to-back games in 2 months. Utah will be the fresher team tonight, having not played since Monday (Phoenix just played last night). The Jazz will also be extremely motivated to avenge a loss to the lowly Clippers in their last game. Head-to-head, the Jazz are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Phoenix. As I already mentioned, they are a great bounce back team and are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss as a result. The Jazz are also 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog and 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. Another thing that can't go unmentioned here is how much better Utah has been than Phoenix when playing on Thursday nights, a night that NBA teams don't play on often. The Jazz are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games while the Suns are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 Thursday games. We'll take Utah tonight. |
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03-04-10 | Evansville +9.5 v. Missouri State | Top | 46-52 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
5* MVC Game of the Year on Evansville +9.5
Evansville may have finished in last place in the Valley during the regular season, but it wasn't playing like a last place team down the stretch. The Aces recorded wins over 2nd place finisher Wichita State and over conference champion Northern Iowa. In other words, this is not the same team that Missouri State defeated by 10 points at home on Jan. 27th. One big reason I feel good about taking the points is because Missouri State doesn't force a lot of turnovers, and therefore doesn't score many points off turnovers. In fact, the Bears are 0-8 ATS after going 5 straight games without forcing an opponent to commit more than 14 turnovers. Missouri State has also struggled to cover the number in neutral site contests. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games as a favorite. The Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite period. You also have to like that the Purple Aces are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. We'll take the points. |
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03-03-10 | TCU +16 v. New Mexico | Top | 66-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
5* MWC Game of the Month on TCU +16
I feel there is some serious line value with TCU tonight when you consider that New Mexico is only winning by an average of 13.8 points at home this season. Plus, it's going to be hard for the Lobos to get up for this one after such an emotional win over BYU. On top of that, plays against favorites of 10 or more points after 7 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%), are 59-18 ATS the last 5 seasons, including 10-1 ATS this season. The favorite has been favored by an average of 17.8 points in these games but is only winning by an average of 12.8. We'll take the points as TCU shows up in a big way trying to knock off the top dog in the conference. |
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03-03-10 | Memphis Grizzlies +2 v. New Orleans Hornets | Top | 104-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
5* Wednesday NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +2
I really believe Memphis is the better team and it will be hungry to prove it after 2 prior losses to the Hornets this season. In the latest matchup between these two teams, New Orleans overcame a 21-point third-quarter deficit to win 109-102 in overtime. In the teams' first matchup this season, New Orleans rallied from a nine-point deficit and won 113-111 at home on James Posey's layup with 1.1 seconds left. Those two losses, which should have been wins, have to be sitting very sour with the Grizzlies. They will be the driving force for a Memphis win this evening. Memphis has won 4 straight on the road. The Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Plus, the Hornets are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Take Memphis. |
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03-02-10 | Illinois +9.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 57-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
5* 2010 Big Ten Game of the Year on Illinois +9.5
A win ensures Ohio State the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten tourney and at least a share of the regular season conference championship so the Buckeyes shouldn't be lacking motivation. However, Illinois will be extremely motivated as well, and with that in mind, odds makers are spotting the Illini too many points. The Illini can earn a first round bye in the Big Ten tourney with a win tonight. But their biggest motivation is that a win will likely ensure them a place in the NCAA Tournament. The Illini have dropped 3 of 4, including a 19-point embarrassing loss to the Buckeyes, to find themselves on the bubble. Illinois already has wins over Michigan State and Wisconsin. It is a much better team than it has showed recently, and I expect the Illini to give the Buckeyes all they want and more tonight. Illinois has shot very poorly in the games it has lost recently and is coming off a dismal 31.9% shooting effort. But that actually bodes well for us here as Illinois is on an 11-1 ATS run in road games after a game where they made 33% of their shots or worse. The Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. The Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite, 0-7 ATS in home games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season and 0-7 ATS in home games after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season. Take Illinois and the points. |
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03-01-10 | Dallas Mavericks v. Charlotte Bobcats -2 | Top | 89-84 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Bobcats -2
This is a tough spot for the Mavs, who just played last night, and will be playing their 9th game in 14 days. The Bobcats find themselves in a much better spot, playing at home where they are an impressive 20-7 this season, and playing with 2 full days of rest. Charlotte will also be looking for a little bit of revenge here after falling at Dallas by 1 point in December. Right away, you have to like the fact that plays against underdogs playing on back-to-back days, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, are 164-109 the last 5 seasons (60.1%). You also have to like the fact that Charlotte is 13-4 ATS in home games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 97.8 to 90.6. The Bobcats are also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Mavericks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing without any days rest. We'll take the Bobcats at home tonight. |
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02-28-10 | New Orleans Hornets +8 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 100-108 | Push | 0 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
5* Sunday Night NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Hornets +8
New Orleans has showed up against elite competition. Just this month, we've seen the Hornets play the Magic to a 6-point game at Orlando to cover as a 9.5-point dog. We just saw the Hornets beat the Magic outright as a 5-point dog Friday. We have also seen them defeat the Celtics here recently and cover the number against the Cavs. The Hornets are very confident right now, even without Chris Paul, because of how well Darren Collison is playing. Plus, New Orleans has played the Mavs extremely tough, having won 8 of the last 11 meetings. You also have to like the fact that New Orleans is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points under coach Bower. The Hornets are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on 1 days rest and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Mavericks are 6-23 ATS in their last 29 games as a home favorite and 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points. |
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02-27-10 | Villanova +5.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 77-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
5* NCAAB ESPN Game of the Year on Villanova +5.5
We'll take Villanova and the points today as its big game experience and experienced back court, led by Scottie Reynolds, gives the Wildcats the edge. Nova has won 3 straight in this series and 5 of the last 6. From a point spread perspective, the Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings at Syracuse and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Nova has the type of guards that can really cause problems for the Cuse zone with their penetration and ability to knocks down threes. And that's why we've seen the Wildcats enjoy success against the Orange. With first place on the line, I just can't see Villanova getting beat by more than 5 points. And frankly, I can't see it getting beat period. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points and we'll take them in that role here today. |