Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-28-15 | Arizona v. Utah -1.5 | Top | 63-57 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
5* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Utah - The Utes are showing exceptional value here as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Wildcats. The value here is largely due to the fact that Arizona is the higher ranked team and that they won convincingly at home against the Utes 69-51. The big key here is that Utah has been a completely different team at home than on the road. The Utes are a perfect 16-0 SU and 11-4 ATS at home, where they are outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 26.1 ppg. Utah is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games played on Saturday, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after a game where they shot 57% or better from the field and held their opponent to 43% or worst. 13-4 ATS in their last 17 when playing a top level team that's won 80% or more of their games and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games after 15+ games against teams that are outscoring opponents by 4+ points game. These trends combine to form a dynamite 88% (37-5) system in favor of the Utes. Take Utah! |
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02-27-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Chicago Bulls -6 | Top | 89-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year on Bulls - With the recent news of the Bulls losing Rose to another knee injury and Chicago losing their first game without him 86-98 at home to the Hornets, the public has quickly backed off this team. Minnesota on the other hand comes in off an impressive 99-77 win at home over the Wizards. I believe we are seeing a huge overreaction not only to the Rose injury, but based on the last game. It shouldn't have come as a big surprise to see Chicago stumble in their first game without Rose, as his injury really came out of nowhere and the focus just wasn't there. Minnesota is actually the team poised for a letdown, after laying everything they had on the line in Garnett's first game back. The Timberwolves are also not nearly as good on the road, where they have gone a miserable 5-23 this season. Minnesota is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win and 5-12 ATS in their last 17 against the Eastern Conference, while the Bulls are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after a SU loss by 10+ points. These trends combine to form a 74% (23-8) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago! |
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02-26-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 | Top | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Cavaliers - The Cavaliers are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Warriors. Cleveland has turned the corner and are arguably playing the best basketball of any team in the league right now. The Cavaliers have won 16 of 19 overall and 10 straight at home by an impressive 15.2 ppg. The Warriors did hand Cleveland a 112-94 defeat on their home floor back on Jan. 9, but the Cavaliers had yet to hit their stride and were playing without LeBron James. That loss only adds fuel to the fire for this matchup for Cleveland. That earlier loss and the Warriors amazing start to the season is a big reason why the Cavaliers are showing such great value at home. The key here is that Golden State has been extremely overvalued of late due to their strong start. The Warriors are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. Cavaliers are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games revenging a loss of 10 or more points, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 following a SU win, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games overall and 9-0 ATS in their last 9 against the Western Conference. These trends combine to form a 79% (49-13) system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland! |
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02-25-15 | Marquette +9.5 v. Butler | Top | 52-73 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
5* Big East Game of the Month on Marquette + The Golden Eagles are showing some great value here as a 9.5-point underdog against the Bulldogs. Marquette went on the road and gave Villanova a run for their money in a 76-87 loss, despite playing without two of their best players in Matt Carlino and Juan Anderson. Both were close to returning for that game, which is a good sign that they will be back for this contest. Even if Carlino and Anderson are both sidelined, I still like the Golden Eagles to keep this one close enough to cover the big spread. Butler was fortunate to escape with a 72-68 overtime win at Marquette earlier this season. The Bulldogs rallied from a double-digit deficit in the final 5 minutes. Andrew Chrabascz played a big role in that win, scoring a career-high 30 points, but he won't be available for this one, as he's out 2-4 weeks. In their first two games without Chrabascz, Butler barely won 58-56 at Creighton and got rolled at Xavier 56-73. Marquette is just 3-8 SU on the road, but are a strong 8-3 ATS. Not only is this a great spot for them to cover, but I like their chances of winning this game outright. The Golden Eagles are 38-14 ATS in their last 52 road games when listed as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points and 33-17 ATS in their last 50 games when revenging a home loss. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are coming off a home game where both teams scored 75+ points against an opponent off a road loss by 10+ points are 59-26 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% system in favor of the Golden Eagles. Take Marquette! |
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02-24-15 | Wisconsin v. Maryland +6.5 | Top | 53-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Maryland + The Terrapins are showing some great value here as a home underdog against the Badgers. Wisconsin essentially has the Big Ten regular season title wrapped up, as they have a 3-game lead with just 4 games left to play. This game means a lot more to Maryland, who would be in prime position to finish 2nd in the conference with a win. Wisconsin isn't going to lay down for the Terrapins, but there's certainly reason to believe the Badgers could struggle to leave College Park with a win. Maryland is a dominant 16-1 at home with their only loss coming to Virginia way back on Dec. 3. One of things that gets overlooked with the Badgers impressive 25-2 record is that they have played a soft schedule in true road games. Inside conference play their 6 road games have come against the likes of Northwestern, Rutgers, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska and Penn State, who are all in the bottom 8 of the standings. I don't think there's any question that this is the toughest road game the Badgers will have played all season and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they lost outright. Maryland is 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games against teams outscoring opponents by 12+ points/game after 15+ games and are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games off 3 straight conference wins. We also see that teams who have won 18 or more of their last 20 games that are playing their 3rd game in a week span are just 44-75 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 63% system in favor of the Terrapins. Take Maryland! |
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02-23-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 102-113 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Timberwolves + The Timberwolves are showing some great value here as a near double-digit underdog to the Rockets. Minnesota has quietly started playing much better basketball of late and the books are slow to adjust based on their 12-42 overall record. The Timberwolves returned from the All-Star break with a win at home over the Suns, giving them 4 wins in their last 6 games. The Rockets bounced back from a 110-111 loss at Dallas with a 98-76 blowout win at home over the Raptors, which is also playing into this inflated line. The key thing here is that Houston was all business against Toronto after losing to the Mavericks. I don't see that same intensity here in what will be their 3rd game in 4 days and a much bigger home game against the Clippers on deck, who they recently lost to by 15-points back on Feb. 11. The Rockets won the most recent meeting 114-112 at Minnesota, which sets up the Timberwolves in a profitable spot. Minnesota is 12-4 ATS this season revenging a home loss. The Timberwolves are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when playing on 2 days rest. It's also worth noting that Houston is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. These trends combine to form a dynamite 84% (27-5) system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota! |
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02-22-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 194 | Top | 98-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
5* Western Conference Total of the Month on Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER The books have set the mark too high in this one. Memphis will be playing their first game since the All-Star break and will be looking to start off strong after going into the break with an embarrassing 89-105 loss at Oklahoma City. The Trail Blazers are also going to be motivated here after an ugly 76-92 loss at Utah in their first game back from the break. Portland is a strong offensive team, but will take some time to adjust to the additions of Alonzo Gee and Arron Afflalo. I look for the Trail Blazers to struggle to get going offensively here against one of the best defensive teams in the league. Portland is better defensively than people give them credit for, especially at home where they are allowing just 93.1 ppg. UNDER is 19-9 in Portland's 28 home games this season, 22-10 in their last 32 home games after failing to cover the spread last time out and 27-12 in their last 39 off an upset loss by 10+ points. Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 63-23 over the last 5 seasons on Sunday when you have a total of 190 to 199.5, with a team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. That's a 73% long-term system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER! |
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02-21-15 | West Virginia +5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 73-63 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
5* Big 12 Game of the Year on West Virginia + The Mountaineers snapped out of their recent funk with a huge 62-61 home win over Kansas and I look for them to carry over that momentum on the road against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State isn't exactly coming in with a lot of confidence, as they followed up a 15-point road loss at TCU with a 65-70 home defeat to ISU. While the Cowboys have been strong at home this season, West Virginia is a respectable 10-3 on the road and I look for them to come out extremely motivated given their recent bad losses on the road to ISU (59-79) and Oklahoma (52-71). Oklahoma State is just 12-26 ATS over the last 3 seasons when facing a team with a winning record after 15+ games and just 8-19 ATS when their opponent in this spot is outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game. Cowboys are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on Saturday and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 after 2 straight games with 9 or fewer offensive rebounds. These trends combine to form a 66% (64-27) system in favor of the Mountaineers. Take West Virginia! |
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02-20-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers -3 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 127-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Cavaliers - The Cavaliers went into the All-Star break with an ugly 98-113 loss to the Bulls in a nationally televised game on TNT. Even with that defeat, Cleveland went into the break having won 14 of 16 and I look for them to come out with a statement win against the Wizards on ESPN. Washington made a trade for Ramon Sessions, but he's not expected to be available. The Wizards are still without the services of Bradley Beal and they went into the break having lost 6 of their last 8. Washington is just 17-40 ATS in their last 57 home games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who have won 60% to 70% of their games and just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Wizards. Home teams revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110 or more points against an opponent that is off an upset loss as a favorite to a division rival are just 11-42 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 79% system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland! |
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02-19-15 | Utah v. Oregon State +8.5 | Top | 47-37 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
5* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Oregon State + The Beavers are showing some tremendous value here as a decently sized home dog against the Utes. While Utah has the stronger overall and conference marks, Oregon State is a perfect 14-0 at home, which includes wins over the likes of Arizona St, Arizona and UCLA. This could very well be where their home winning streak comes to an end, but I don't see them losing here by more the spread. It's not just this season where the Beavers have played well at home. They are 22-7-2 ATS in their last 31 home games overall. Oregon State is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against excellent teams that are shooting 45% or better from the field and holding opponents to 42% or worse. The Beavers do come into this game off back-to-back road losses at UCLA and USC, but are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following two or more consecutive defeats. These trends combine to form a 80% (43-11) system in favor of the Beavers. Take Oregon State! |
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02-18-15 | North Carolina +8.5 v. Duke | Top | 90-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
5* UNC/Duke In-State Rivalry Game of the Month on UNC +8.5 I know the Tar Heels aren't coming into this game playing their best basketball, but this is too many points for a team as talented as North Carolina to be catching in arguably the biggest rivalry in college basketball. The Tar Heels have dropped 3 of their last 4, but a couple of those can be credited to poor effort. They blew a 18-point lead in a loss at Louisville that snapped a 6-game winning streak and last time out they allowed Pittsburgh to shoot 65% from the field. A lack of effort won't be an issue against the Blue Devils and most importantly I think North Carolina matches up extremely well with Duke. They have a talented front line to throw at Okafor and the athleticism on the outside to keep up with the Blue Devils guards. History is also on the Tar Heels side, as North Carolina has gone an impressive 13-4 ATS in their last 17 trips to Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Tar Heels are also 17-3 ATS in their last 20 off an upset loss as a road favorite and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games played in the month of February. These trends combine to form a 79% (44-12) system in favor of the Tar Heels. Take North Carolina! |
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02-17-15 | South Carolina +7 v. Georgia | Top | 64-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
5* NCAAB SEC Game of the Year on South Carolina + South Carolina is being undervalued here off an ugly 34-point road loss to Kentucky. The Gamecocks will not only be motivated to bounce back, but they will have plenty of confidence against the Bulldogs. South Carolina defeated Georgia 67-50 at home back on Jan. 31 and in that win they held the Bulldogs to a mere 22.0% shooting. Georgia isn't exactly coming into this game playing their best basketball. The Bulldogs have lost 3 of their last 5 after winning 5 straight, including a surprising 68-69 loss at home to Auburn as a 11-point favorite on Saturday. Georgia could be without a couple of key players in their rotation, as J.J. Frazier is expected to sit this one out and Juwan Parker is listed as questionable with an Achilles injury. While Parker didn't play in the first meeting against South Carolina, Frazier had a team-high 16 points. Those that are wanting to play the revenge angle here, may want to reconsider. Home teams revenging a road loss to an opponent of 10 or more points, off a home loss by 3 points or less are 30-68 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% System in favor of the Gamecocks. Take South Carolina! |
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02-15-15 | Hofstra v. Drexel +2.5 | Top | 81-57 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
5* Colonial Athletic Game of the Month on Drexel + The Dragons are showing some great value here as a home underdog against Hofstra. Drexel comes in having won 6 straight. The Dragons are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when listed as an underdog and will be out for revenge from a 28-point loss at Hofstra back on Jan. 21. The Pride were just upset at home 79-68 by Northeastern and continue to be overvalued by the books. Hofstra is just 1-5 ATS over their last 6 and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. I look for the Pride to struggle to bounce back on the road in this one. Drexel is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Colonial and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games after covering the number in 3 or more straight games. The Pride on the other hand are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against teams who commit 14 or less turnovers/game . These trends combine to form a 79% (38-10) system in favor of the Dragons. Take Drexel! |
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02-14-15 | Maryland +1.5 v. Penn State | Top | 76-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
5* Big 10 Game of the Month on Maryland + I believe we are getting some exceptional value here with the Terrapins as a road underdog against the Nittany Lions. Maryland comes in off a much-needed 68-66 home win over Indiana, but failed to cover the 6-point spread. It was the 6th straight game the Terrapins lost to the number and it has them undervalued here. Penn State won't exactly being coming in with a ton of confidence following a 20-point loss at Ohio State and so far the Nittany Lions 3 conference wins have come against the likes of Rutgers, Minnesota and Nebraska, who all have a losing record inside Big 10 play. Keep in mind that Penn State lost at home 64-73 to Michigan as a 1.5-point favorite and 77-84 at home to Purdue as a 1-point favorite. Maryland is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games played on a Saturday, while Penn State is 1-3 ATS in their last 4 off a blowout conference loss by 20+ points, 1-3 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 60 points or less in 3 straight games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games when listed as a favorite of 3-points or less. These trends add up to form a strong 77% (23-7) system in favor of the Terrapins. Take Maryland! |
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02-13-15 | Wisconsin Green Bay v. Valparaiso -3 | Top | 59-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Horizon League Game of the Month on Valparaiso - The Crusaders are showing some great value here as small home favorite against Green Bay. Valparaiso will be out for revenge from a heartbreaking 50-51 loss at the Phoenix on Jan. 23, plus with a win here they can take take over the top spot in the Horizon. The Crusaders only two conference losses have both come on the road. Outside of that loss to Green Bay, they fell in overtime at Oakland. The key is that they are a perfect 6-0 at home in the Horizon and 11-1 overall for the year. The home fans will certainly be out in full force tonight in a game that could decide the regular season title on ESPN2. Green Bay comes in having won 3 straight, but are a mere 7-21 ATS in their last 28 off 3-straight conference wins and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win. Valparaiso is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 games played on Friday. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who have led by 5 or more at the half in each of their last 3 contests, in a game involving two average offensive teams (67-74 ppg) after 15+ games are 36-15 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Crusaders. Take Valparaiso! |
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02-12-15 | Minnesota +6.5 v. Iowa | Top | 64-59 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
5* Minn/Iowa No Limit Top Play on Minnesota + The Hawkeyes are getting a little too much respect here at home against the Golden Gophers. Iowa has won back-to-back games in blowout fashion, winning at Michigan 72-54 and at home against Maryland 71-55. In both of those games the Hawkeyes shot over 62% from the field. This is a much bigger game for Minnesota, who at 4-7 inside conference play, desperately need a win here to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. The Gophers lost by just 2-points at home to Iowa earlier this season and come in off back-to-back home wins. That sets up Minnesota in a profitable system, as road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who are revenging a same season loss and off 2 or more home wins are 53-26 ATS over the last 5 seasons. It's also worth noting that Minnesota is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 trips to Iowa City, along with the fact that Iowa is just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played on Thursday. These trends combine to form a 73% (27-10) system in favor of the Golden Gophers. Take Minnesota! |
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02-11-15 | Syracuse v. Boston College +2 | Top | 70-56 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
5* Syracuse/BC ACC Game of the Month on BC + This isn't a game the Orange are going to be motivated for at all. Syracuse just recently imposed a self ban on any postseason tournament, leaving little to play for down the stretch. I do expect the Orange to continue play hard against some of the top teams, but getting up for the likes of Boston College will be a challenge, especially considering they recently defeated the Eagles at home 69-61, where they led by a score of 35-17 at the half. Not only will Boston College be motivated to get their revenge on the Orange at home, but the Eagles come in desperate for a win after losing each of their last 4. While the Eagles are just 1-9 inside the ACC, that is largely due to a brutal schedule. Their 4 home games so far have come against Pitt, Virginia, Louisville and North Carolina. They lost all 4, but took the Panthers to overtime in a 60-61 defeat. Boston College is 26-12 ATS in their last 38 home games against strong defensive teams that are allowing 64 or fewer points/game at least 16 games into the season and a solid 41-20 ATS in their last 61 off a conference home loss. Syracuse is just 3-11 ATS as a favorite this season, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 after failing to cover 4 or 5 out of their last 6 and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 when they come in having committed 14 or less turnovers in 4 straight games. These trends combine to form a strong 72% (95-37) system in favor of the Eagles. Take Boston College! |
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02-09-15 | Orlando Magic v. Washington Wizards UNDER 197 | Top | 80-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Magic/Wizards UNDER I believe the books have set the total too high for tonight's matchup between the Wizards and Magic. Washington is coming of a 114-77 home win over the Nets, where they held Brooklyn to just 33.8% shooting. The Wizards had lost their previous 5, so I'm not expecting them to relax at all and I look for the energy to be there again defensively at home. Orlando on the other hand has been a much stronger defensive team since they fired head coach Jacque Vaughn. The Magic held the Lakers to just 97-points in their first game without Vaughn and held Chicago to 98 yesterday. Prior to these two games, Orlando had allowed 100+ in 14 straight games. Adding to this is the fact that these two teams have a history of playing low-scoring games. Each of the last have seen a combined score of 191 or less and the Wizards are holding the Magic to just 91.5 ppg over the last 4. UNDER is 18-7-1 in Orlando's last 26 road games versus a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 14-6-1 in their last 21 when playing on 0 days rest. UNDER is also 4-1 in Washington's last 5 games following a SU win, 4-1 in their last 5 at home against a team with a lsing record and 19-7-1 in their last 27 when playing on 1 days rest. These trends add up to form a 73% (59-22) system. Take the UNDER! |
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02-08-15 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Houston Rockets -4.5 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
5* Blazers/Rockets Western Conf Game of the Month on Rockets - Good spot here to go against the Trail Blazers, who just lost in overtime last night against the Mavericks. That extra 5-minutes of action is going to make it hard for Portland to bounce back with the kind of effort needed to win on the road against the Rockets. All 5 starters played at least 37 minutes with everyone but Brook Lopez playing at least 40 minutes. Tired legs is the last thing you want against James Harden and Houston's uptempo attack. I look for the Rockets to come out really looking to push the tempo here and they shouldn't have much a problem doing so. This will be just their 3rd game in the month of February and each of the previous two have both come at home. Houston is 23-11 ATS in their last 34 home games when playing against a team with a winning record, 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games after playing their last game as a favorite and 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games after a non-conference matchup. Portland is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 following a SU loss, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 on the road. These trends combine to form a 78% (62-18) system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston! |
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02-07-15 | Baylor v. West Virginia -4 | Top | 87-69 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
5* Baylor/W Virginia Big 12 Game of the Month on W Virginia - The Mountaineers are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Bears. Not hard to see why West Virginia is being undervalued here. The Mountaineers come in off a 19-point lost at Oklahoma (52-71), while Baylor comes in off back-to-back 20+ point blowout wins at home over Texas and TCU. The key here is the fact the Mountaineers were without the services of Devin Williams against the Sooners. Williams leads the team in conference play with 13.4 ppg and is 2nd in the Big 12 with 9.1 rpg. He's expected to be back for this one and I look for the Mountaineers to lay a beating on the Bears. Baylor is just 1-3 in their last 4 on the road and 1-9 in their last 10 away from home against a ranked foe. Not only will West Virginia be extremely motivated off that ugly loss to Oklahoma, but the Mountaineers will also be out for revenge. The Bears came into Morgantown and came away with a 88-75 road win as a 3-point dog last year. West Virginia is going to make sure that doesn't happen again. Baylor is just 9-20 ATS in their last 29 road games off a conference win by 10 or more points, while the Mountaineers are 25-15 ATS in their last 40 home games when they come in having won 2 of their last 3. These add up to form a solid 65% (45-24) system in favor of the Mountaineers. Take West Virginia! |
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02-06-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 197 | Top | 99-103 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Pacers/Cavs UNDER I'm expecting a much lower scoring game than what the books are anticipating with this total. Cleveland comes in off an impressive offensive performance against the Clippers, but I just don't see them coming out with that same level of intensity offensively on the road against a bad team like the Pacers in the second game of a back-to-back set. Indiana knows that their only chance of winning this game is to slow down the tempo and really turn up the energy defensively. The Pacers have done a pretty good job of that at home, where they are holding opponents to just 96.3 ppg on the season. On the flip side of this, Indiana figures to have a difficult time scoring against a Cavaliers defense that is allowing just 90.4 ppg in their last 5. Adding to this is the fact Cleveland hasn't allowed 100 points in 10 straight and should have no problem slowing down a Pacers offense that is only averaging 95.5 ppg at home. UNDER is 11-2 in the Pacers 13 home games this season against teams who are forcing 14 or fewer turnovers/game, 10-1 in the Cavaliers last 11 road games against teams outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game, 7-1 in Cleveland's last 8 road games against a team with a losing home record and 22-4 in their last 26 against an opponent that allowed 100 or more in their last game. These trends combine to form a 86% (50-8) system. Take the UNDER! |
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02-05-15 | Washington Wizards +1 v. Charlotte Hornets | Top | 87-94 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA Southeast Division Game of the Month on Wizards + The Wizards are coming into this contest having lost 4 straight and have failed to cover the number in each of their last 8 games. That includes a 88-92 loss at home to Hornets on Monday. Getting back in the win column combined with revenge against Charlotte, gives us confidence that we will get Washington's best effort in this one. While the Hornets have gone an impressive 11-3 over their last 14 games, they are playing without star point guard and leading scorer Kemba Walker. While Charlotte defeated the Wizards without Walker and are 5-1 without him, those other 4 wins have come against the likes of the Nuggets, Knicks, Timberwolves and Pacers. Wizards are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 road games after playing their last contest as an underdog, while the Hornets are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. Adding to this is a strong system. Road teams that are revenging a home loss against an opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins are 70-35 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington! |
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02-04-15 | Denver Nuggets v. Boston Celtics OVER 200.5 | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Nuggets/Celtics OVER I'm not expecting a whole lot of defense to be played in this one. Both the Celtics and Nuggets will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and not a whole lot of motivation here given how poorly these two teams have been playing of late. Denver is just 1-10 in their last 11 games, while the Celtics are a 7-16 in their last 23. Both teams come in off less than impressive efforts defensively. The Celtics allowed New York to score 97 points on 49.4% shooting last night, while Denver allowed the 76ers lackluster offense to put up 105 points. The Nuggets also gave up 104 in their previous game against the offensively challenged Hornets. OVER is 26-13 in the Nuggets last 39 revenging a same season loss, 21-9 in their last 30 road games after playing two straight games as a favorite and 6-1 in their last 7 against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 19-9 in the Celtics last 28 home games against poor pressure defensive teams (14 or less turnovers/game), 16-7-1 in their last 24 following a SU win and 4-0 in their last 4 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Adding to all of this is a strong system. OVER is 50-22 over the last 5 seasons in games with a total of 200 to 209.5 points that features two bad teams (25% to 40%) facing off in the 2nd half of the season. That's a 69% system. Take the OVER! |
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02-03-15 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee -9 | Top | 71-66 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
5* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee - This is simply not a good matchup for Mississippi State, who already lost at home 47-61 to Tennessee back on Jan. 7. In that matchup the Bulldogs shot just 30.6% from the field and were outrebounded 44-28. I look for the Volunteers defense and rebounding to make it extremely difficult for Mississippi State to keep this one competitive. Each of the Bulldogs last two trips to Thompson-Boling Arena have resulted in losses by at least 15 points. Tennessee is 9-2 at home this season. While they failed to cover as 8.5-point favorites last time out in a 71-63 win over Auburn at home, the Volunteers are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games off a home no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite. Mississippi State on the other hand is 11-24 ATS in their last 36 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 off a SU win. The Bulldogs are also just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 road games against teams who commit 14 or less turnovers/game, while Tennessee is 23-9 ATS in their last 32 against teams who are outrebounding opponents by 4+ rebounds/game. These trends combine to form a 70% (78-34) system in favor of the Volunteers. Take Tennessee! |
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02-02-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Toronto Raptors OVER 203.5 | Top | 82-75 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Raptors/Bucks OVER I'm expecting a very high scoring game tonight between the Bucks and Raptors. Toronto comes in averaging 116.8 ppg over their last 5 contests, while Milwaukee is averaging a respectable 103.0 ppg over their last 5 outings. In the previous meeting this season at Toronto in the series, these two combined for 207 points with the Bucks only managing 83 points on 36.5% shooting. I look for Milwaukee to provide a lot more offense this time, which should have this one flying well over the mark set by the books. Adding to this is the fact that the OVER is 8-0 in the Bucks last 8 trips to Toronto. This is also a solid spot to back the OVER with the Raptors off back-to-back road wins by 5 points or less. Teams in this spot have seen the OVER go 118-65 (65%) since 1996. The OVER is 14-3 in the Bucks last 17 games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who are allowing opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field, 14-4 in their last 18 road games when listed as an underdog of 6.5 to 9 points and 11-2 in their last 13 when they come in having won 4 of 5. OVER is also 11-2 in Raptors last 13 after allowing 105+ in 2 straight games and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 off a SU win. These trends combine to form a dynamite 83% (55-11) system. Take the OVER! |
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01-31-15 | Evansville -6 v. Drake | Top | 65-70 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
5* Missouri Valley Game of the Year on Evansville - Drake is one of the worst teams in the country, as they come in at 5-16 overall and just 2-7 inside the MVC. I believe this is a perfect spot to go against the Bulldogs as a relatively small home underdog, as Drake comes in off a 69-57 win at Bradley. Evansville comes in having won 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall. The Purple Aces have also won three straight on the road inside conference play and are 6-2 ATS on the road this season. I look for Evansville to carry over that momentum and cruise to any easy win here against a far inferior Drake team. The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS this season when playing on Saturday, losing by an average score of 57.4 to 72.6 (15.2 ppg). Evansville on the other hand is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 when they come in having won 3 of their last 4, 14-4 ATS in their last 18 after playing two straight games as a favorite and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games off a home win by 10 or more points. These trends combine to form a 83% (44-9) system in favor of the Purple Aces. Take Evansville! |
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01-30-15 | Dallas Mavericks -8.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 93-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Mavericks - This is the perfect spot to back Dallas, as I look for them to come out with one of their best performances of the season. The Mavericks have dropped a season-high 4 straight and questions are coming up whether the Rondo trade was a bad move. Getting back in the win column and proving their doubters wrong would have been plenty of motivation, but Dallas will also be playing with revenge from a 96-105 home loss to Miami back on Nov. 9. In that previous loss to the Heat earlier this season, Miami got 30-points from Luol Deng and 20 from Dwayne Wade, who went a combined 22 of 37 (59%) from the field. Unfortunately for the Heat, both Wade and Deng will be sitting out this one with injuries, which is going to allow Dallas to focus their attention on stopping Bosh and thus making it extremely difficult for the Heat to generate any offense. Another thing to keep in mind, is that Dallas has won more games on the road (16) than they have at home (14), while the Heat are the exact opposite. Miami is 8-14 at home, compared to 12-9 on the road. The Mavericks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against the Eastern Conference and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games versus teams that have won fewer than 40% of their home games. Miami on the other hand is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100+ in their last game, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 against the Western Conference's Southwest division and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Road Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have been beaten by the spread by 24 or more combined points in their last 3 games against an opponent that's gone under the total by 54 or more combined points in their last 10 are 31-8 ATS since 1996. That's a dynamite 80% system in favor of the Mavericks. Take Dallas! |
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01-28-15 | Dallas Mavericks v. Houston Rockets -3.5 | Top | 94-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
5* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month on Rockets - The Rockets are showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite against the Mavericks. Not only is Dallas in the midst of a minor slump with 3 straight losses, the Mavericks are in an awful scheduling spot, as they are in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and will be playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days overall. Dallas is 2-6 ATS when playing on 0 rest and just 1-8 ATS this season when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Rockets already knocked off Dallas at home 95-92 back on Nov. 22 and have won 3 of their last 4 at home against the Mavericks. Dallas is also a mere 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 against the Western Conference and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a division opponent. It's important to note that last night the Mavericks fell 90-109 at home to the Grizzlies as a 6-point favorite, as that sets up a great system to go against Dallas. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a winning record on the season, who are off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 or more points and up against a team with a winning record are just 9-30 ATS since 1996. That's a 77% long-term system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston! |
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01-27-15 | Toronto Raptors -3.5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 104-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Raptors - The Raptors aren't getting the same respect that they were just a month ago. Toronto has gone just 5-8 since opening the season 24-7 and during this recent downfall have gone a mere 2-10-1 ATS. I believe it has the Raptors extremely undervalued as a small road favorite against the Pacers. Indiana comes in off an impressive 106-99 win at Orlando, which saw them shoot a season-best 51.8% from the field. I'm not buying that as anything more than taking advantage of a horrible Magic defense. The Pacers are only shooting 42.9% from the field on the season against opponents that on average have allowed 45.1% shooting. Prior to their hot shooting against Orlando, Indiana had dropped 7 straight and I expect them to return to their losing ways tonight. Indiana is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100+ points last time out. The Pacers are also a dismal 0-7 ATS this season at home when revenging a loss to an opponent (lost 94-106 at Toronto on Dec. 12). Toronto is 21-10 ATS over the last 2 seasons when playing against a team that's won only 25% to 40% of their games and 21-4 ATS in their last 25 versus strong rebounding teams that are outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game. These trends combine to form a DYNAMITE 80% (60-15) system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto! |
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01-25-15 | Indiana Pacers v. Orlando Magic UNDER 209 | Top | 106-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Pacers/Magic UNDER The books have completely missed the mark on this one. The Magic come into this game ranked 24th in scoring at 95.7 ppg and the Pacers are 27th at 94.7 ppg. We are simply getting an inflated total here due to Orlando having gone OVER the total in each of their last 7 games, including each of their last two with totals of 209 and 206.5. You have to go all the way back to March of 2010 to find the last time these two teams played a game with a combined score of at least 209 points. Each of their last 20 games in the series have finished below the mark set for this game, including an earlier matchup this season which saw a combined score of just 181 points. UNDER is 13-4 in the Magic's last 17 games played on Sunday and 87-2 in their last 10 against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 14-3-1 in the Pacers' last 18 games against a team with a losing record. Adding to all of this a strong system. UNDER is 24-5 since 1996 in games with a total of 200 or more points when you have an average team that is +/- 3 ppg differential (Pacers) against a poor team with a -3 to -7 ppg differential, that trailed in their last 2 games by 10 or more at the half. That's a 83% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER! |
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01-24-15 | Charlotte v. Middle Tennessee -3 | Top | 69-72 | Push | 0 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
5* NCAAB ATS No Brainer Game of the Month on Middle Tenn - This is a great price to back the Blue Raiders at home against a Charlotte team that has really been struggling to get anything going. The 49ers have lost two straight and 6 of their last 8 overall, which has coincided with the absence of head coach Alan Major, who had to take an indefinite leave due to health reasons. While Charlotte is in the midst of a slump, Middle Tennessee has won 4 of their last 5, including an impressive 68-58 home win over Old Dominion as a 2-point dog in their last contest. The Blue Raiders improved to 8-2 SU and 6-2 ATS at home. Middle Tennessee's strong play at home and the 49ers without a sense of direction, is a big reason why I think we are getting such great value here with the Blue Raiders laying just 3-points. It's also worth noting that Middle Tennessee won by 22 points (71-49) at Charlotte last season. 49ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following a SU loss and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games, while the Blue Raiders are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games against teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers/game and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games when playing a team with a losing record after 15 or more games. These trends combine to form a 90% (27-3) system in favor of the Blue Raiders. Take Middle Tennessee! |
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01-23-15 | Boston Celtics v. Denver Nuggets -9 | Top | 100-99 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Nuggets - This may seem like a lot of points to lay on the Nuggets, who come into tonight's contest having dropped 4 straight, but this is a perfect spot to back Denver and fade the Celtics. The Nuggets are going to be extremely motivated at home to put an end to their losing streak, while Boston is in a horrible scheduling spot. The Celtics come in off a highly contested 90-89 win at Portland last night and now face the difficult task of going to play in one of thin air of Denver on no rest. Adding to this is the fact that the win over the Blazers isn't all that impressive given Portland's injury problems right now. Prior to that win, Boston had lost 4 of their last 5 and each of their previous 3 by at least 9 points. It's also worth noting that while Boston is going to be tired, Denver comes in on a full 2 days of rest. History is also on our side in this one. Denver has won 5 straight at home with their last loss to the Celtics at the Pepsi Center coming back in 2009. The smallest margin of victory for Denver during their home winning streak against Boston is 7-points and the last time they hosted the Celtics they won by 31 (129-98). Adding to all of this is a strong system. Teams off 2 straight losses by 10 or more points against an opponent coming off a game where both teams scored 90 or fewer points are 46-19 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Nuggets. Take Denver! |
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01-22-15 | Alabama +7 v. Arkansas | Top | 91-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
5* SEC Game of the Month on Alabama + I'll gladly take the points in this one, as I think Alabama has an excellent shot at winning this game outright. The Crimson Tide are simply being undervalued here due to the fact that they have lost their last two, which included an ugly 22-point home loss to Kentucky in their last game. Losing to Kentucky is nothing to worry about and the other loss was a mere 2-point defeat at South Carolina. Arkansas isn't exactly coming in a positive note either, as the Razorbacks have also dropped their last two. However, Arkansas' two losses have come at Tennessee (69-74) and at home to Ole Miss (82-96). Keep in mind that Alabama won at Tennessee earlier in conference play 56-38. The Crimson Tide are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games off a home loss and 21-9 ATS in their last 30 after going UNDER the total in their last game. Arkansas on the other hand is a mere 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after giving up more than 90 points in their last game. These trends combine to form a 72% (55-21) system in favor of the Crimson Tide. Take Alabama! |
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01-21-15 | Creighton +11 v. Butler | Top | 61-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
5* Big East Game of the Month on Creighton + The Bluejays are showing some great value here as a double-digit underdog against the Bulldogs. Creighton is being way undervalued by the books right now, due to the fact that they are 0-6 inside conference play and are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 lined games. There's no question that the Bluejays are going to come out motivated to get their first conference win, while Butler could be in for a bit of a letdown. The Bulldogs are coming off two closely contested games against Seton Hall and Georgetown, which had them win by 4 over Seton Hall and lose by 2 at Georgetown. It's going to be hard for Butler to give Creighton their full attention with how poorly they have played of late. Road underdogs of 10 or more points that have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more combine points in their last 7 games are 57-25 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a solid 70% system backing a play on the Bluejays. We also see a strong system suggesting a fade of Butler. Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points who have gone over the total by 30 or more points in their last 3 games against an opponent that has gone under the total by 42 or more points in their last 7 are just 15-40 ATS since 1997. That's another 73% system in favor of the Bluejays. Take Creighton! |
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01-20-15 | San Antonio Spurs -8 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 109-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
5* Spurs/Nuggets Western Conference Game of the Month on Spurs - This may seem like a lot of points for the Spurs to be laying on the road against the Nuggets, but I look for San Antonio to have no problem winning here by at least 10 points. The Spurs are finally starting to get healthy and are a perfect 2-0 since Kawhi Leonard returned to the lineup with both coming via blowouts. They knocked off Portland at home 110-96 on Friday and came back with a 89-69 win at home over the Jazz on Sunday. San Antonio isn't going to take their foot off the gas, as they are currently sitting in just 7th place in the Western Conference. While the Spurs are on the upswing, Denver is in a bit of a free fall right now. The Nuggets have lost 3 straight, including an ugly 105-113 home loss to the Timberwolves on Saturday and a 79-122 defeat yesterday at Golden State. While you could argue that Denver is primed for a bounce back performance, I don't believe that to be the case at all. The Nuggets are in an absolutely brutal scheduling spot, as they not only are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, but this will be their 4th game in the last 5 days overall. Denver is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games following a road loss by more than 10 points, 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and 1-9 ATS this season when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Spurs are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 road games after playing two straight as a home favorite. These trends combine to form a 78% (58-16) system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio! |
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01-19-15 | Pittsburgh +15 v. Duke | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Pittsburgh + Duke is being overvalued here off that impressive 62-52 win at Louisville on Saturday. Prior to that victory the Blue Devils had failed to cover each of their previous 3 and were a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8. No question Duke is the better team in this matchup, but they are prime for a letdown after that loss and 15-points is a lot to cover against a quality team like Pitt inside conference play. The Panthers come in off back-to-back wins and are a respectable 13-5 overall, but are way undervalued due to the fact that they have gone a miserable 4-11 ATS on the season, including a 1-7 ATS stretch over their last 8 lined games. Pitt is 33-17 ATS in their last 50 road games when listed as an underdog. Duke is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games, 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 conference matchups and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games played on Monday. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that are coming off 3 straight games that finished OVER the total, who are a strong defensive team, allowing 64 or less points/game are 39-16 ATS since 1997. That's a 71% system in favor of the Panthers. Take Pittsburgh! |
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01-17-15 | Jacksonville State +10 v. Tennessee-Martin | Top | 52-55 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
5* Ohio Valley Game of the Year on Jacksonville State + The Gamecocks are showing big time value here as a double-digit dog against the Skyhawks. Jacksonville State is being way undervalued due to a couple of ugly home losses the last two times out against Murray State and SE Missouri State. Jacksonville State has won each of the last 4 meetings in the series. While both teams return 3 starters from last year, one of those starters that Tenn-Martin returned is senior forward Myles Taylor, who is out with a knee injury. Taylor had 12 points and 6 rebounds in last year's 65-70 loss at Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks have thrived in the roll of the underdog, especially on the road. Jacksonville State is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 road games when listed as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. The Gamecocks are also 27-10 ATS in their last 37 road games when they come in having failed to cover 2 of their last 3 and 26-13 ATS in their last 39 road games after playing their last 2 at home. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Skyhawks. Home favorites off an upset conference win against an opponent of 2 straight home losses of 10 or more points are just 14-38 ATS since 1997. That's a 73% system in favor of the Gamecocks. Take Jacksonville State! |
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01-16-15 | Portland Trail Blazers v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 199 | Top | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Spurs/Blazers OVER This will be the 3rd meeting between these two teams this season and both of the previous matchups have seen plenty of offense. The Spurs and Blazers combined for 203 points in Portland back on Dec. 15 and a few days later combined for 248 in a triple-overtime thriller at San Antonio. Adding to this is that 8 of the last 10 in the series have seen at least 200 points scored. A big key here is that the Spurs are expected to get back a big piece of their offense, as Kawhi Leonard is upgraded as probable. Leonard hasn't played since Dec. 15 and is San Anotonio's leading scorer at 15.2 ppg. Portland comes in averaging 105.1 ppg on the road and are giving up 100.6 ppg, while the Spurs are averaging 106.8 ppg at home and allowing 101.8 ppg. With the Spurs getting back one of their top scorers and Portland coming in with fresh legs (just their 2nd game in the last 5 days), I look for both teams to eclipse the century mark as this one flies over the total. OVER is 4-0 in the Trail Blazers last 4 games played on Friday. It's also 7-0 in the Spurs last 7 home games against teams who average 53+ rebounds/game, 4-0 in their 4 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 4-0 in their last 4 versus the Northwest Division. These trends combine to form a perfect 100% (19-0) system. Take the OVER! |
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01-15-15 | Belmont +10.5 v. Murray State | Top | 77-92 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
5* Ohio Valley Game of the Month on Belmont + We are getting exceptional value here with the Bruins catching double-digits against the Racers. Oddsmakers have inflated this line in favor of Murray State, who comes in having won 11 straight overall and are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 lined games. Adding to the value here is the fact that Belmont has failed to cover the spread in each of their last 4 games, including a 11-point loss at Eastern Illinois as a 4-point favorite last time out. The thing you have to keep in mind with that loss to Eastern Illinois, is the fact that the Bruins shot a miserable 37.5%, while the Panthers connected on 59.3% of their attempts. There's a good chance Belmont isn't going to be that bad from the field in back-to-back games and I expect max effort defensively after allowing a team to almost shoot 60% from the field. It's also worth noting that Murray State's strong 3-0 start in conference play, has come against some weak competition in Morehead State, Tennessee Tech and Jacksonville State, who are a combined 3-9 in the Ohio Valley. The other key here is the recent history between these two teams have resulted in closely contested games. Adding to this is the fact that Belmont swept the season series a year ago, winning 99-96 at home as a 8-point dog and 70-68 at Murray State as a 7.5-point dog. We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of Murray State. Favorites at least 15 games into the season, that have held each of their last 4 opponents under 40% shooting, who are shooting 47.5% or better on the season against a team that is allowing 42.5% to 45% are just 21-51 ATS since 1997. That's a 71% system in favor of the Bruins. Take Belmont! |
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01-14-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Boston Celtics OVER 205 | Top | 105-91 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Celtics/Hawks OVER These two teams combined for 214 points in the Hawks 109-105 home win back on Dec. 2. I'm expecting even more offensive fireworks in the rematch. The Celtics just put up 108 points on the Pelicans at home last time out and are averaging 104.7 ppg at home on the season. Atlanta has scored 100+ in 3 straight and are averaging 104.1 ppg on the road. One of the big keys here is that both of these teams do an excellent job of sharing the basketball offensively. Atlanta averages 26 assists per game and Boston is right behind at 25. I look for the offenses to have their way in this one, as both teams don't figure to have a whole lot of energy left to use up on defense. Hawks are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd in 4 days overall. I just don't see them giving max effort on defense here, especially with games against the Raptors and Bulls on deck this weekend. Celtics are playing with a day off, but this is their 4th game in the last 6 days. Boston also has a lot of new faces with their recent trades and aren't going to have the chemistry defensively to slow down an offense like the Hawks. OVER is 5-1 in Atlanta's last 6 when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 32-16 in their last 48 when they come in having successfully covered the spread in 5 or more consecutive games. OVER is also 12-4 in the Celtics last 16 when they come in having lost 2 of 3 and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 off an upset win as an underdog. Adding to this is a strong a system. OVER is 41-15 since 1996 in games with a total of 200 to 209.5, where you have a team that covered the spread last time out (Celtics) against an opponent that has covered in 6 or more straight games (Hawks). That's a 73% system. Take the OVER! |
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01-13-15 | Miami (FL) +15 v. Duke | Top | 90-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
5* Miami/Duke ACC Game of the Month on Miami + The first instinct when a team like Duke gets upset, is that they are going automatically going to come out an play their best game the next time out. I know the Blue Devils haven't lost back-to-back conference games in nearly 6 seasons, but they are being way overvalue here on the spread against a Miami team that is capable of winning this game outright. The Hurricanes are 11-4 overall and just nearly upset undefeated Virginia at home in their ACC opener, losing in double-overtime. Miami bounced back with a 60-56 win over BC and I look for them to give the Blue Devils all they can handle. It's a lot different going into a game off a loss, especially after going this far into the year undefeated. It's also worth noting that Miami has a history of playing well at Cameron Indoor Stadium. While the Hurricanes are just 1-4 SU in their last 5 visits they have 3-losses by exactly 3-points and their largest defeat during this stretch was 11-points and they were a 19-point underdog in that contest. Miami is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Duke. Hurricanes are 30-16 ATS in their last 46 games against a top caliber team that's outscoring opponents by 12+ points/game at least 15 games in to the season, 29-12 ATS as a road underdog of 10 or more points and 12-2 over their last 14 when listed as a road underdog or pick'em. These trends combine to form a 72% (77-30) system in favor of the Hurricanes. Take Miami! |
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01-10-15 | Charlotte -6 v. Marshall | Top | 77-72 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
5* C-USA Game of the Month on Charlotte - The 49ers have been a huge disappointment this season, but I think it's created some solid value here on Charlotte against an inferior Marshall team. The 49ers are just 6-8 overall, but could easily be sitting with double-digit wins. Out of the 8 losses, 6 have come by 8-points or less, including their most recent loss at Western Kentucky (66-74). The Thundering Herd on the other hand are every bit as bad as their 4-11 record. Marshall's four wins this season have come against the likes of Jacksonville St, Savannah St, West Virginia Tech and King University. Part of the problem for the Thundering Herd during their current 1-11 stretch is the absence of senior forward Shawn Smith, who is one of just 3 players averaging over double-figures. Marshall is just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against a team with a losing record and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 against a marginal losing team that's won 40%-49% of their games. The Thundering Herd are also just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 when playing with 1 or less days of rest and 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games played on a Saturday. These trends combine to form a 80% (44-11) system in favor of the 49ers. Take Charlotte! |
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01-09-15 | Utah Jazz v. Oklahoma City Thunder -11.5 | Top | 94-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month on Thunder - I have no problem laying this big number here on the Thunder at home against the Jazz. Oklahoma City is ripe for a huge bounce back performance after two ugly shooting performances on the road against the Warriors and Kings. The Thunder went just 30-98 (30.6%) from the field in a 91-117 loss at Golden State on Monday and 29-89 (32.6%) in a 83-104 defeat at Sacramento on Wednesday. It's a similar spot to what we saw back in last November. Oklahoma City was hosting the Jazz off a 86-91 loss at Golden State, where they shot just 35.6% from the field and the Thunder rolled Utah 97-82 at home behind a sizzling 48.2% shooting. The Jazz are allowing teams to make 46.4% of their shots on the season, including 37.2% from long distance. I look for the Thunder to come out with one of their best performances of the season, as this team simply can't afford not to take every game seriously right now. Oklahoma City is a full 4-games back the Suns/Spurs for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in their 5 home games against the Jazz over the last 3 seasons and all 5 of those wins have come by at least 12 points. This is also a perfect spot to fade Utah off that 20-point win at Chicago as an 11-point dog. Underdogs that have won 25% to 40% of their games on the season, after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game are a mere 6-26 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a dynamite 81% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City! |
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01-08-15 | Charlotte +3.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 66-74 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
5* NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Charlotte + The 49ers are showing big time value here as an underdog against Western Kentucky. While Charlotte is just 6-7 and the Hilltoppers are 8-5, the 49ers are the better team. Charlotte has simply played a much more difficult schedule. The 49ers 7 losses have come against Miami (10-4, twice), Davidson (10-3), George Washington (12-3), @Georgetown (10-4), @Georgia Tech (9-5) and Old Dominion (12-1). Adding to this is the fact that 5 of those 7 losses came by 8-points or less. The key here is that we are getting Charlotte at a great price, due to the 49ers coming in having lost 3 straight, while Western Kentucky has won 3 in a row and 5 of 6. The Hilltoppers are also being overvalued here due to having gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 lined games. Charlotte has thrived in the role of the underdog this season, going 7-1 ATS when they are catching points. 49ers are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Western Kentucky on the other hand is a mere 3-10 ATS in their last 13 following a SU win, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 off a home win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off 3 or more consecutive victories. These trends combine to form a 82% (40-9) system in favor of the 49ers. Take Charlotte! |
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01-07-15 | Detroit Pistons v. Dallas Mavericks OVER 211 | Top | 108-95 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Pistons/Mavs OVER These two teams should have no problem eclipsing the total set for this matchup. Dallas comes into this game allowing a league-best 109.5 ppg and have been even better at home, putting up 111.8 ppg. With the Pistons having just played last night in a closely contested game at San Antonio and this being their 3rd game in the last 4 days, Detroit isn't going to have the energy to slow down this Dallas offensive attack. The Pistons are going to have rely on their offense to keep them in this one and I expect them to have no problem providing enough here to push this game well over the mark. The Pistons are averaging 107.8 ppg over their 6-game winning streak and Dallas is giving up an average of 102.6 ppg at home. It's also worth noting that these two teams played recently in Detroit and combined for 223 points in a 117-106 Mavs win back on Dec. 17. It was the third straight meeting in this series that saw at least 215 points. OVER is 13-4 in Pistons last 17 games against a team that's won 70% or more of their games, 12-1 in their last 13 against the Western Conference's Southwest division, 28-9 in their last 37 when playing their 3rd game in 4 days and 23-8 in the Mavs last 31 after playing 3 straight on the road. These trends combine to form a 78% (76-22) system. Take the OVER! |
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01-06-15 | Ohio State v. Minnesota -2.5 | Top | 74-72 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Minnesota - The Golden Gophers are being extremely undervalued here at home due to opening up Big Ten play with back-to-back losses, including an ugly 12-point loss last time out against Maryland. Ohio State on the other hand comes in ranked No. 22 in the country and are fresh off a 16-point home win over Illinois, but this is not the same caliber a Buckeyes team that we have seen in years past. Ohio State has a strong record, but they have played a soft schedule and not played that great against the better teams they have faced. This will also be just the second true road game for the Buckeyes this season. Minnesota has opened up a perfect 9-0 at home and there's no question that we are going to get the Golden Gophers' best effort here as they look to avoid an 0-3 start inside conference play. Keep in mind that last year, Minnesota knocked off Ohio State 63-53 at home as a 3-point dog and I'm expecting a similar result in this one. Ohio State is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games when they come in having won 5/6 of their last 7 games, just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after covering the number last time out and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Minnesota is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games after failing to cover 2 out of their last 3 and 33-17 ATS in their last 50 home games off a conference loss by 10 or more points. Adding to this is a strong system backing a fade of Ohio State. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who have beat the spread by 18 or more combined points in their last 3 games against an opponent that has gone under the total by 18 or more combined points in their last 3 games are just 16-43 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% system in favor of the Gophers. Take Minnesota! |
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01-05-15 | Washington Wizards +3 v. New Orleans Pelicans | Top | 92-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Wizards + The Wizards come into this contest off 3 straight road losses, while the Pelicans enter off a 28-point home win over the Rockets, which has created some big time value on Washington as a 3-point road dog tonight. The Wizards 3-game road losing streak have come against the likes of the Mavericks, Thunder and Spurs. Prior to their skid, Washington had lost a total of 3 games over their previous 16 contests. I look for the Wizards to clamp down defensively and come away with a win in the final game of their 5-game west coast road trip. As impressive as New Orleans' win over Houston was, the Pelicans have struggled to put together consecutive victories. New Orleans has followed up each of their previous 4 wins with a loss. The Pelicans are clearly one of the more improved teams this season, but they aren't quite there yet. Wizards are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games after playing their previous game as an underdog, 17-6 ATS in their last 23 road games after allowing 100 or more points in each of their last two contests and a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 road games after scoring 55 points or more in the 1st half of their last game. It's also worth noting that the Wizards held the Pelicans to just 80 points in a 83-80 home win back on Nov. 29. Favorites off a home win that are revenging a loss where they scored 85 points or less are just 30-60 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Adding to this is an even stronger system on Washington. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are a strong offensive team (98-102 ppg) against a poor defensive team (98-102 ppg) after allowing 100 or more in each of their last two games are 25-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 89% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington! |
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01-03-15 | Richmond +7 v. Davidson | Top | 67-81 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
5* Richmond/Davidson A-10 Game of the Month on Richmond + Davidson comes in having covered 4 straight, while Richmond has lost 7 straight against the spread and enter off back-to-back losses at home to Wake Forest and Northeastern. This has forced oddsmakers to inflate the line here on the Wildcats, creating some big time value on the Spiders. Richmond's only loss all season by more than 6-points came on the road against NC State, who has opened up the season 10-4. The Spiders lost at Old Dominion by just 6-points, at UNI by just 5-points and their last two losses to Wake Forest and Northeastern at home came by a combined 3-points. While Davidson's only two losses have come against ranked opponents in North Carolina and Virginia, the rest of their schedule has been far from challenging and I wouldn't be shocked at all if Richmond won this game outright. The Wildcats are just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 home games after covering 4 of their last 5, while the Spiders are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games against explosive offensive teams that are averaging 84+ points/game. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of Davidson. Home favorites that have won 80% or more of their games that are coming in off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog are just 18-43 ATS since 1997. That's a 71% system in favor of the Spiders. Take Richmond! |
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01-02-15 | Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit ATS Game of the Month on Grizzlies - Memphis is showing some great value here as a mere 4.5-point road favorite against the Lakers. The Grizzlies have answered their 4-game losing streak with a 103-95 win at Miami and a 95-87 home victory against the Spurs and I look for them to come out motivated off a 2-day break. While they will likely be without Zach Randolph once again, his absence isn't going to hurt them against a Lakers team that doesn't play defense and is giving up 55 rebounds/game. I also like the fact that we are catching the Lakers off back-to-back games where they shot better than 50% from the field and will be facing one of the top defensive teams in the league. Prior to that the Lakers had gone 14 straight games without a single game where they 50% or better. Lakers are just 4-11 at home this year and Memphis is 10-4 SU on the road and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team that's won less than 40% of their home games. The Grizzlies have also thrived on the road when they come in well rested. Memphis is 22-8 ATS over the last 3 seasons in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Lakers. Home underdogs who are a terrible defensive team that is allowing 103+ points/game, after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are just 8-28 ATS since 1996. That's a 78% system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis! |
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12-30-14 | Detroit Pistons -1.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 109-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
5* NBA Situational Game of the Month on Pistons - The Pistons are a perfect 2-0 since getting rid of Josh Smith and have arguably put together their two best performances in these victories. Detroit won 119-109 at home against the Pacers last Friday and followed it up with a shocking 103-80 blowout win on the road against the Cavaliers. The Pistons are now just 6 games out of playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and I look for them carry over that momentum with another easy win tonight against the Magic. While Orlando comes in off two straight wins as well, this is a horrible spot for the Magic. Orlando played last night in Miami. Not only will they been in a difficult back-to-back spot, but they find themselves playing their 4th game in the last 5 days. I just don't see the Magic being able to keep pace with Detroit in this one, who will be out for revenge after losing 93-107 at home to Orlando back on Nov. 17. Detroit is 27-12 ATS in their last 39 road games when they come in having lost at least 15 of their last 20 games overall and 38-19 ATS in their last 57 road games off 2 straight wins by 10 or more points. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing the Pistons. Road teams that are revenging a loss to an opponent where they were listed as the favorite and are coming off a win by 10 or more over a division rival are 27-8 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Pistons. Take Detroit! |
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12-27-14 | Orlando Magic v. Charlotte Hornets OVER 190 | Top | 102-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
5* NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year on Magic/Hornets OVER We are getting some exceptional value here due to both these teams coming off low-scoring games last night. Charlotte connected on a franchise worst 28.7% of their field goal attempts in a 77-98 loss at Oklahoma City, while the Magic managed just 89 points in a 89-98 defeat at home to the Cavaliers. Keep in mind that these two teams played recently in Charlotte back on Nov. 21. The total for that game was just 191 points and they combined to score 205. It was the 3rd time in the last 4 meetings these teams combined for at least 205 points. I look for this trend to continue when these two division rivals square off tonight. Another big key here is that both of teams are playing on little rest, which I believe will lead to little to no intensity on the defensive end. Orlando will be playing in their 3rd game in 4 nights and 5th in 9 nights, while the Hornets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 6th in 9 days. OVER is 6-1 in Magic's last 7 games against a team with a losing record and 8-3 in the Hornets last 11 games against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 8-3 in Charlotte's last 11 at home and 14-5 in their last 19 off a loss by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a 75% (36-12) system backing this one to go above the mark. Take the OVER! |
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12-26-14 | Charlotte Hornets +6.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 75-98 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Hornets + This is a great spot to fade the Thunder at home against the surging Hornets. Oklahoma City is in a huge letdown spot after laying it all on the line in yesterday's 114-106 win at San Antonio. I just don't see the Thunder having enough left in the tank to blowout Charlotte at home. Oklahoma City isn't just playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 6th game in the last 9 days. The Thunder are also still without last year's MVP Durant. The Hornets have came to life with Lance Stephenson sidelined, going 4-0 without the prized free agent signing. I look for the Hornets to continue their strong play on the road against Oklahoma City, as they come in off a full 2 days of rest. Dating back to last season, Charlotte is an impressive 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games games in the month of December. Th Hornets are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on 2 days rest and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of the Thunder. Home favorites that have allowed 100 or more points in each of their last 4 games, against an opponent that has scored 100 or more in their last 4 games are just 19-49 ATS since 1996. That's a 72% system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte! |
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12-23-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Phoenix Suns OVER 213 | Top | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Suns/Mavs OVER I believe we are catching some great value here on the OVER due to the Mavericks struggles offensively in their first two games since acquiring Rajon Rondo. Dallas was able to overcome a slow start last night against the Hawks with a 64 point second half and I look for them to carry over that momentum offensively to tonight's matchup against the Suns. Phoenix is also going to be playing with a lot of confidence offensively, as they just swept a 3-game road trip, where they averaged 104.7 ppg. The big key here is that both of these teams aren't very strong defensively. The Mavericks come in allowing 102.5 ppg and the Suns are even worse at 103.1 ppg. Both of these offenses like to push the pace and I believe it's going to result in this one flying over the total of 213.5. OVER is 10-1 in Mavericks last 11 games when their starters combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day, 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 100 or more points in their last game and 4-0 in their last 4 when playing with no rest. OVER is also 4-1 in Suns last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 9-3 in their last 12 versus the Western Conference. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. The OVER is 34-9 since 1996 when you have a total of 210 or more points with the home team coming off a win by 10 or more points against an opponent that is off a close loss by 3-points or less. That's a 79% system backing this one to go over the mark. Take the OVER! |
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12-21-14 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Orlando Magic UNDER 194 | Top | 96-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
5* NBA Over/Under Total of the Month on Sixers/Magic UNDER On Sundays when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points and a team is averaging less than 11 rebounds per game, the UNDER is 348-230 (60.2%) since 1996. In the same situation of games on Sundays and totals in the 190s with teams getting out rebounded by 5+ boards per game, the UNDER is 33-10 (76.7%) since 1996. Take the UNDER here today. |
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12-20-14 | Utah Jazz v. Charlotte Hornets OVER 191.5 | Top | 86-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Year on Hornets/Jazz OVER Both of these teams played last night and their key players logged a lot of minutes. When NBA players get tired their defensive effort is the first to go so I think we’ll see this one easily go over the total tonight. The Jazz have now gone over in 5 of their last six, having shot over 50% and scoring more than 100 points in their last three games. Last night they played in Orlando and all five starters logged over 30 minutes. Charlotte last night got the opportunity to get their offense fine tuned against the Sixers and scored 109 points. Walker played 38 minutes and Jefferson 36 while Kidd-Gilchrist and Henderson both played over 30. The Bobcats have now gone over the total in 4 of their last 5, 6 of their last 8, and 11 of their last 14. I think you’ll see them get past this total once again here tonight. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. The OVER is 32-11 over the last 5 seasons in games played on Saturday with a total of 190 to 199.5 with a road team off an upset win as an underdog. That's a 74% system in favor of this one to go above the mark. Take the OVER! |
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12-20-14 | Purdue v. Notre Dame -3 | Top | 63-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
5* NCAAB In-State Rivalry Game of the Month on Notre Dame - This is a neutral site game but I’ll lay the small number with the better team. Notre Dame’s sole loss this year was to Providence when their defense let them down, but Purdue hasn’t played well on offense against any decent team in nearly a month. Notre Dame hasn’t played a great schedule, but they are coming off a 20 point win over Florida State and have a W over a very good Michigan State Spartan team. The Boilermakers on the other had has some losses to Vanderbilt and North Florida. Purdue has struggled against good defenses the last two years, going just 3-12 ATS against teams who hold opponents to 39% or less from the floor. Notre Dame just fits that criteria as they have held opponents to 38.8%. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play on the Fighting Irish. Neutral site favorites that have an explosive offense (76+ ppg) that have scored 75+ in each of their last two games and are going up against an opponent that averages (74-76 ppg) are 37-14 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% system in favor of the Fighting Irish. Take Notre Dame! |
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12-15-14 | Orlando Magic +7 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 82-95 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Magic + The Raptors continue to be overvalued after their strong start to the season, which has them sitting with the best record in the Eastern Conference at 18-6. The key here is that after starting 13-2, Toronto has gone just 5-4 over their last 9 games. To no surprise this stretch has come following the injury to All-Star DeMar DeRozan. With DeRozan still sidelined I look for Orlando to cover here and potentially win this game outright. Keep in mind that the Magic nearly upset the Raptors in Toronto earlier this season, losing 100-104 after leading by as many as 11 in the 4th quarter. Orlando has quietly been one of the better teams to back this season, as they are 16-10 ATS, including a 12-5 ATS record on the road and 7-1 ATS record over their last 8. The big key here is that we are catching the Raptors in a bad spot. Toronto will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in last 4 days overall. Adding to that is the fact that they needed overtime to beat the Knicks yesterday. Look for Orlando to be the more aggressive team in this one as they come in off a full days rest. There's also a big time system in play on the Magic based off their win at home against the Hawks last time out. Road teams off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog that has won 25% to 4% of their games on the season are 22-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 88% system in favor of the Magic. Take Orlando! |
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12-14-14 | San Antonio Spurs -4.5 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 99-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Spurs - The Spurs are showing tremendous value here as a small road favorite against the Nuggets. Not only is San Antonio going to be extremely motivated after Friday's overtime loss at home to the lowly Lakers, but they catch the Nuggets in a tough spot. Denver just played last night in Houston and will be in the 2nd game of back-to-back set. San Antonio has won 3 straight in the series and in their last visit to Denver they rolled the Nuggets 133-102. Going back since 1996 the Spurs are 25-11 ATS versus Denver. The Nuggets failed to cover against the Rockets, losing 96-108 as a 7-point underdog and are now just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games against the Western Conference. Denver is also 0-7 ATS this season when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Antonio on the other hand is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a SU loss and 16-5 ATS over the last 3 seasons off an upset loss as a home favorite of 10 or more points. These trends combine to form a 81% (38-9) system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio! |
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12-13-14 | Denver v. Stanford -14 | Top | 43-49 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
5* Big Chalk Game of the Month on Stanford - The Cardinal should have no problem covering this number against Denver. The Pioneers were just lost at home by 10 points to UNI and each of their 3 previous losses (all on the road) have come by at least 16 points. Stanford's only two losses this season have come against Duke on a neutral site and at DePaul. They are a perfect 3-0 at home, where they are outscoring opponents by 17.3 ppg. The big key here is that Denver is awful defensively. They allowed UNI to shoot 70% from the floor, which was the third time this season they allowed an opponent to shoot 60% or better. Stanford comes in shooting 45.4% against teams that are only allowing opponents on average to shoot 41.4%. The Cardinal have too much size and should score at will against the Pioneers inside. Defensively Stanford is only allowing opponents to shoot 37.1% at home and are allowing just 59.7 ppg. This one has blowout written all over it as the Cardinal should win here by 20+ rather easily. Denver is 15-39-1 ATS in their last 55 road games against a team with a winning record, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 versus the Pac-12 and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games against an opponent that is shooting 45% or better offensively and allowing 42% or less defensively. These trends combine to form a 76% (60-19) system in favor of the Cardinal. Take Stanford! |
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12-12-14 | Charlotte Hornets +10 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
5* NBA Pre-New Years Non-Conference Game of the Year on Hornets + Charlotte is showing big time value here as a double-digit road dog against the Grizzlies. This is largely due to the Hornets coming in just 1-8 on the road, while Memphis is a dominant 10-1 at home. While I'm not expecting Charlotte to come away with a win, I look for them to have no problem covering this spread. Keep in mind that these two teams have already faced off once this season. The Grizzlies were fortunate to come away with a 71-69 victory at Charlotte, as they shot just 36.2% from the field. That close defeat is going to have the Hornets believing they can win this game. You also have to like the fact that Charlotte comes in off back-to-back wins over New York and Boston. This team is a lot better than their record would indicate and are finally starting to get healthy. The other key here is that both of these teams like to play at a slow pace, which should lead to a low-scoring game. I also like how Charlotte matches up with the Grizzlies and could actually see them having the edge here in bench production. That makes the 10-points we are getting that much more valuable, as it's going to be extremely difficult for Memphis to pull away. Adding to all of this is a strong system supporting a fade of the Grizzlies. Favorites of 10 or more points that have won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games and are playing 6 or less games in 14 days are just 20-47 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte! |
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12-10-14 | Arkansas State v. Purdue -18 | Top | 46-87 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Non-Conference Vegas Insider Game of the Year on Purdue - The Boilermakers should have no problem covering this spread at home against Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are just 2-2 on the season with their two wins coming against the likes of Central Arkansas and Belhaven. The real key who they lost to. They lost by 5-points at home to Lamar, whose only other win on the season is against the LSU-Alexandria Generals. Lamar also has losses by 39-points to SMU and 37 to ISU. Arkansas State also lost at home to Tennessee-Martin, who has double-digit defeats against both Marquette and Nebraska. Winning here by 20-points isn't going to be an issue for Purdue, who has a 52-point win over Grambling, 40-point win over Samford, 21-point win over Missouri and 20-points wins over IUPU and IPFW. Adding to all of this is a strong system suggesting a fade of the Red Wolves. Road underdogs of 10 or more points who are off a home win where they scored 85 or more points and only returned 1 or 0 starters are 32-67 ATS since 1997. That's a 68% long-term system in favor of the Boilermakers. Take Purdue! |
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12-08-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -1 | Top | 108-92 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Game of the Month on Pacers - While Indiana has lost 4 straight and the Hawks have won 6 in a row, I think the value is clearly with the Pacers at basically a pick'em at home. Not only will Indiana be out for revenge after a 10-point loss in Atlanta earlier this season, they are going to be extremely motivated to get a win after getting swept on their 4-game road trip. A couple keys here that favors the Pacers is they are a lot healthier this time around than they were in that first meeting against the Hawks. David West and C.J. Watson are both back from injuries, plus Rodney Stuckey is playing a much bigger role than he was early in the season. The other factor is that Atlanta is in a tough spot after playing Denver yesterday. Not only will the Hawks be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, this will be there 5th game in the last 7 days. Indiana on the other hand comes in off 2 full days of rest. There's also a strong system telling us to fade Atlanta. Road underdogs who are a poor defensive team that is allowing 99+ points/game on the season after allowing 85 points or less in each of their last two are just 5-23 ATS since 1996. That's a dynamite 82% system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana! |
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12-05-14 | Houston Rockets v. Minnesota Timberwolves +7 | Top | 114-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA Pre-New Years Western Conf Game of the Year on Timberwolves + This is a perfect spot for the Timberwolves to bounce back from that ugly home loss to the 76ers and get a cover against the Rockets. It doesn't get much worse in the NBA right now than losing to Philadelphia, who had started the season 0-17. There's no question oddsmakers have inflated this line, especially with Houston beating the Grizzlies 105-96 in their last game. Not only do I think Minnesota will hang tough with the Rockets, I think they have a great shot at winning this game. The Timberwolves are going to come out highly motivated after that poor showing against a quality team like the Rockets. Houston on the other hand figures to have a difficult time getting up for this game. The Rockets are not only coming off that big game against Memphis, but they have a big home game against the Suns on deck tomorrow. Adding to this is the fact that Houston is still playing short-handed, as Dwight Howard, Patrick Beverley and Terrence Jones are all sidelined with injuries. The Timberwolves will also be playing with revenge here, as they lost to Houston 101-113 back on Nov. 12. Minnesota is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 revenging a home loss to an opponent. Houston on the other hand is 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games after having won at least 4 of their last 6 games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Adding to all of this is a strong system suggesting a fade of the Rockets. Favorites off a home win against a division rival are just 20-50 ATS on Friday over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota! |
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12-03-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Charlotte Hornets +3.5 | Top | 102-95 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Hornets + This is a great spot to back Charlotte, as I look for the Hornets to snap their 9-game losing streak tonight against the Bulls. I expect Charlotte to give max effort here after an ugly 30-point loss at Atlanta last time out, which saw them trail by as many as 44-points. The Hornets have had a full 3-days off to let that loss sit in and the extra rest should pay off big against the Bulls. Chicago comes into this game off a 129-132 double-overtime loss at home last night. Now the Bulls have to turn around and play the second game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days overall. What really makes this a tough situation for Chicago is they are far from healthy. Taj Gibson has missed the last 5 games and is not expected back, Joakim Noah was injured against Dallas and may not play, rookie Doug McDermott is questionable and I wouldn't be surprised if they kept Derrick Rose's minutes in check after he played a season-high 37 minutes last night. The Bulls have lost each of their last 3 in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and are just 1-4 ATS in this spot over their last 5. Chicago is also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when the starting 5 players combined for more than 160 minutes the previous game. Charlotte is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team that's won 60% or more of their road games and 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 versus the Central division. These trends combine to form a dynamite 83% (30-6) system in favor of the Hornets. Take Chicago! |
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12-03-14 | William andamp; Mary +8.5 v. Richmond | Top | 67-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year on William & Mary + The Tribe are showing big time value here in this in-state rivalry showdown against Richmond. William & Mary enter on a 5-game winning streak with the only loss on the season come at Florida in the opener. The Spiders on the other hand are just 2-3 with their only two wins coming against High Point and Radford. William & Mary lost 3 starters from last year, but got back First-Team All CAA guard Marcus Thornton and CAA Freshman of the Year Omar Prewitt. Thornton is averaging 17.0 ppg so far in 2014 and Prewitt isn't far behind at 12.2. Both of these guys can light it up from the outside and that's a big concern for Richmond, who is allowing opponents to connect on 39.1% from the 3-point line. The Spiders are down this year with the losses of seniors Cedrick Lindsay and Derrick Williams and simply should not be laying this many points. William & Mary isn't just good enough to cover, I could easily see them winning this game outright. Richmond is a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after scoring 60 points or less in their last contest and 7-18 ATS in their last 25 home games as a favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. William & Marry is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 versus a team with a losing record and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games off a win by 6 points or less. Adding to all of this is a great system. Underdogs with an average offense (67-74 ppg) against an opponent with a poor offense (63-67 ppg), after allowing 65 or less in 4 straight games are 48-20 ATS since 1997. That's a 71% system in favor of the Tribe. Take William & Mary! |
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12-02-14 | Portland Trail Blazers -3 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 105-103 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month on Trail Blazers - The Trail Blazers are showing great value here as a mere 3-point road favorite against the Nuggets. Portland has already taken each of the first two games in the series this season. In a span of just 3 days they beat Denver 116-100 at home and 130-113 on the road. The Trail Blazers have now won 6 straight in the series. Defensively the Nuggets had no answer for Portland in those first two games and it's hard to imagine they will be at their best on that side of the ball given that they will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, following yesterday's 103-101 win at Utah. Denver is just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games when playing with no rest. It's also worth noting that the Trail Blazers have won 4 straight on the road where they are 4-2 ATS this season. Adding to all of this is a big time system telling us to fade the Nuggets. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are revenging a loss versus an opponent and off a road win by 3 points or less are 23-5 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 82% system in favor of the Trail Blazers. Take Portland! |
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11-29-14 | Charleston v. West Virginia -12.5 | Top | 57-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter Game of the Month on West Virginia - The No. 21 Mountaineers should have no problem covering this double-digit spread against Charleston. Even though we aren't far into the season, each of these teams have played both George Mason and Connecticut. The Mountaineers beat George Mason 91-65, while the Cougars barely escaped with a 61-60 victory. West Virginia knocked off UConn 78-68, while Charleston lost to the Huskies 57-65. That right there really says a lot about how much more talented the Mountaineers are and adding even more value here is that this game is at home for West Virginia. Charleston is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record, while West Virginia is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 off a blowout win by 30 or more points and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after a game committing 15 less turnovers than their opponent. These trends combine to form a 78% (39-11) system in favor of the Mountaineers. Take West Virginia! |
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11-26-14 | Georgia State -7.5 v. Oakland | Top | 83-78 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Year on Georgia State - Georgia State is one of the better kept secrets in college basketball. Last year the Panthers went 25-9 on their way to a Sun Belt regular season title. Georgia State gets back the nucleus from last year and are absolutely loaded in the backcourt with R.J. Hunter (2013 Sun Belt Player of the Year), senior point guard Ryan Harrow (1st Team All Sun Belt) and Kevin Ware (Louisville transfer). The Panthers should have their way against an Oakland team that has started out just 1-4 with their only win coming against Chicago State. Georgia State is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs a team with a losing record and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win. Oakland is just 5-20-2 ATS in their last 27 home games against a team with a losing road record and 3-13 in their last 16 versus a team with a winning record and 0-9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games overall. There's also a strong system in play. Road favorites who are off a cover as a double-digit favorite are 74-39 ATS in the month of November since 1997. That's a 66% system in favor of the Panthers. Take Georgia State! |
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11-25-14 | Akron v. Penn State -6 | Top | 72-78 | Push | 0 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
5* Non-Conference No Limit Game of the Year on Penn State - The Nittany Lions are being undervalued by the books after failing to cover the spread in 3 straight, which included a couple of less than impressive wins over Cornell (72-71) and USC (63-61). With Akron missing their top returning scorer and rebounder in Demetrius Treadwell (15.2 ppg, 8.6 rpg), the Zips are not equipped to go on the road and keep it close enough to cover against Penn State. The Nittany Lions got back a ton of talent from last year's team, including one of the top Big Ten players in D.J. Newbill. He will easily be the best player on the floor tonight and that's a big reason why I'm siding with Penn State at home. Akron is just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games against a team with a winning record, while Penn State is 24-11 ATS in their last 35 versus poor rebounding teams who are getting outrebounded by 4+ boards/game. Zips are also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games. These trends combine to form a 73% (51-19) system in favor of the Nittany Lions. Take Penn State! |
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11-24-14 | Santa Clara v. Michigan State -16 | Top | 52-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Michigan State - The Spartans rebounded from that poor showing against Duke with a 87-52 win over Loyola-Illinois and I look for them to carry over that momentum with another easy home win against Santa Clara. Michigan State has a young team, which is why it wasn't surprising to see them struggle at Navy and against the Blue Devils in Indianapolis. The Broncos went just 14-19 last year and are simply not a well coached team. They are completely outmatched from a talent aspect and will have a difficult time just keeping it within 25 points. Keep in mind Santa Clara just lost 54-60 at Utah State, who lost all 5 starters from 2013-14. Michigan State is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against bad pressure teams who force 12 or less turnovers/game and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after leading in their previous game by 15 or more at the half. Adding to this is that the Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after scoring 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons. These trends combine to form a 88% (23-3) system in favor of the Spartans. Take Michigan State! |
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11-21-14 | Milwaukee Bucks +9 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 83-124 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Year on Bucks + Milwaukee is showing tremendous value as a 9-point dog against the Raptors this season. Despite the fact that the Bucks are 9-3 ATS this season, they are still being undervalued based on how bad they have been in years past. Milwaukee hasn't just been covering of late, they have been winning games outright. The Bucks have won 5 of their last 6, three of which had them listed as the underdog. They have just two losses all season by more than 9-points. Not only am I big on Milwaukee right now, but this is a perfect scenario to fade the Raptors. Toronto is certainly feeling good about themselves after their 9-2 start to the season, which is going to make it easy for them to look past this contest to tomorrow's huge showdown against the Cavaliers, who everyone has circled on their calendar early. This is a similar spot to when the Raptors hosted the Magic prior to a big game against the Bulls on TNT. Toronto was fortunate to leave with a 104-100 win against Orlando, as they trailed by double-digits in the 4th quarter. The Raptors are just 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a losing road record and we find a great system in play on the Bucks. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a good defensive team (holding opponents to 41.5%-43.5% shooting) against a poor defensive team (45.5%-47.5%) are 39-12 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee! |
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11-21-14 | Iowa -3 v. Syracuse | Top | 63-66 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
5* NCAAB No Brainer Game of the Month on Iowa - The Hawkeyes are favored for good reason against the Orange. While both teams are coming off double-digit losses in the first round of the 2K Classic, I was a lot more impressed with the Hawkeyes. Iowa had a lead early against Texas but had one of their worst offensive showings they will likely have all season. The Hawkeyes made just 29.6%. Syracuse was dominated right from the start by Cal and this is simply not the same caliber an Orange team as previous years. They lost C.J. Fair, Tyler Ennis and Jerami Grant from last year's team and are counting on freshman Kaleb Joseph to run the all-important point guard spot in Syracuse's system. Joseph should eventually evolve into a big time player, but the Orange figure to struggle early against experienced teams like the Hawkeyes. Teams who had a winning record the previous season who went 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games, playing in a game with two teams who have a winning record are 23-5 ATS on a neutral site in the first 5 games of the season over the last 5 years. That's a 82% system in favor of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa! |
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11-19-14 | Wisconsin Green Bay v. Wisconsin -15 | Top | 60-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Non-Conference Game of the Year on Wisconsin - The Badgers should have no problem taking down one of their in-state foes in Wisconsin-Green Bay. While the Phoenix put a scare into Wisconsin last year on their home floor, losing by a final of just 66-69, that's a positive going into this matchup. The Badgers aren't going to look past Green Bay, especially on their home floor. Wisconsin-Green Bay still has talented guard Keifer Sykes, who put in 32 last year against the Badgers, but the Phoenix don't have much of a supporting cast around him. Look for Bo Ryan and his staff to have a much better gameplan for Sykes this time around, which should have them winning here by 20+ points rather easily. It's also worth noting Wisconsin is 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 non-conference games, which includes a 13-4 record of the last two seasons. There's a strong system in play as well. Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points, in a matchup of a major division 1 conference team against a mid-major conference team are 137-75 ATS off a home win scoring 85 or more points since 1997. That's a 65% long-term system in favor of the Badgers. Take Wisconsin! |
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11-14-14 | Rice +7.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 54-67 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Opening Night Game of the Year on Rice + This is a big time fade of Oregon State. The Beavers went a respectable 16-16 (8-10 Pac-12), but with all five starters gone, including their star Roberto Nelson (20.7 ppg) this team is going to struggle. Their leading returning scorer is sophomore Langston-Morris Walker, who averaged a mere 4.0 ppg. Rice went a miserable 7-23 last year, but I'm expecting a big turnaround for the Owls under new head coach Mike Rhoades, who was one of Shaka Smart's top assistants at VCU. Rice at least has some experience to fall back on with 3 starters and a lot is expected out of freshman Bishop Mercy, who is a perfect fit for Rhoades system. I believe there's a good chance the Owls win this game outright. Take Rice! |
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11-10-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers -2.5 | Top | 89-85 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
5* Western Conference Game of Month on Clippers - The Clippers are showing great value here as a small home favorite. Los Angeles comes into this season expecting to contend for a title and will be out to make a statement against the defending champs. The Spurs have struggled out of the gate and are clearly being overvalued by the books. San Antonio is just 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS. They have especially struggled in their two road games, losing at Phoenix 89-94 and at Houston 81-98. Part of the problem for the Spurs is they are not 100%. They are missing a key piece of their offense in Patty Mills along with starting center Tiago Spiltter. Key reserve, Marco Belinelli is also questionable. It's also worth noting that the offense just isn't clicking right now for San Antonio. They come in ranked in the bottom 3rd in scoring (92.8 ppg), field goal percentage (43.2%), 3-point percentage (32.5%) and turnovers (18.2). While the Spurs are struggling, Los Angeles comes in off their best showing of the season in a 106-102 home win over the Trail Blazers. The Clippers have scored at least 100 points in three straight and have shot no worse than 46.3% from the field during this stretch. With the advantage of playing at home, I look for LA to dictate the tempo and have no problem winning here by at least 3 points. There's a nice system in play favoring the Clippers. Teams with a line of +3 to -3 who have +/- 3 points/game differential against an opponent that is -3 to -7 points/game differential, after 2 straight games where both teams score 100 or more points are 23-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 89% system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles! |
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11-07-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 110-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Year on Cavaliers - I believe this is the perfect spot to jump on the Cavaliers, who are a surprising 1-3 to start the season. It's been a big wake-up call for a lot of these Cleveland players, who simply thought adding LeBron James was going to make them the best team in the league. I'm expecting these guys to come together and give their best effort of the season tonight against the Nuggets. Denver is the perfect opponent for the Cavaliers to get back on track. The Nuggets come in having lost 3 straight, including a 11-point loss to a depleted Thunder team and back-to-back defeats against the Kings. For Denver to lose at home to Sacramento on Monday and turn around and play them again on Wednesday and get embarrassed by 22-points really says a lot about this team. That's typically a spot where a team fights back and the Nuggets laid down. Two of the biggest problems for Cleveland has been their lack of sharing the basketball offensively and a lack of effort defensively. The Cavaliers had just 6 assists in their loss to Utah. Six! It's amazing that they were as close as they were. It just goes to show how much talent they have. Luckily both of these things can be changed. I look for Kyrie Irving to be more of a facilitator and the defensive intensity to pick up in a nationally televised game on ESPN. Take the Cavaliers! |
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06-08-14 | Miami Heat +4.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Vegas Insider on Heat + The Heat were in prime position to win and cover in Game 1 before James had to exit due to cramping. The goods is that injury should be long gone by the time these two teams tip-off tonight. I look for James to come out and make a statement and for the Heat to even up the series at 1-1. Miami ended up allowing the Spurs to score 110 points, but their defense really fell apart without James on the floor. One of the key things to notice is that the Heat forced San Antonio into 22 turnovers, which ended up in a lot of easy baskets in transition. I expect more of the same in Game, as Miami is going to do everything they can to even up the series at 1-1. Miami is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100+ points and 23-9 in their last 34 games after a loss by 10+ points. That's a 76% (32-10) system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami! |
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06-05-14 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 199 | Top | 95-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Total of the Year on the UNDER The books have set the total way too high for Game 1. Both teams understand the importance of each game and that's going to lead to max effort on the defensive end. Miami has the perimeter defense to make things difficult for the Spurs offensively and San Antonio is one of the better teams in the league when it comes to defending LeBron James. You also have to factor in the nerves that come with playing in the Finals and the long layoff from the conference finals will likely have both teams out of sync offensively early on. If you look back at last year's Finals matchup between these two teams, they combined for just 180 points in Game 1. They didn't score more than 190 points in the series until Game 4. It's also worth noting that the total for Game 1 last year was just 190 points. In fact the highest total set for any game in the series was 191.5 points. The value is clearly on the under at 199. The UNDER is 36-13 (73.5%) for road teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MIAMI) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games. The UNDER is also 24-6 (80%) for all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game.Take the UNDER! |
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05-30-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat -7.5 | Top | 92-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
5* Pacers/Heat NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat - The Pacers put everything on the line to win Game 5 at home and I just don't see them being able to deliver a similar performance on the road. Miami understands how important it is to end the series on their home floor and not have to go back to Indiana for a Game 7. Considering how the Heat dominated both games at American Airlines Arena in Game 3 (99-87) and Game 4 (102-90), I don't have a problem laying the points. Both of these teams are great on the defensive end, but the big difference is that the Heat have players who can score no matter who is defending them. Indiana on the other hand is limited offensively and I look for them to really struggle to get anything going with Miami 100% focused on the defensive side of the ball. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we had a similar outcome to last year's Game 7 in Miami in the Conference Finals, where the Heat destroyed Indiana 99-76. Miami is 30-17 ATS in their last 47 games revenging a loss to an opponent, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Indiana on the other hand is just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games after a win by 6-points or less. That's a solid 68% (52-24) system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami! |
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05-25-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2 | Top | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
5* Spurs/Thunder NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Thunder - It's do or die for the Thunder and I look for them to get the job done at home with or without Ibaka. Just the fact that Ibaka is trying to fight through the pain to play, should serve as a huge emotional lift for the rest of the Thunder. The big key here is that Oklahoma City will be playing at home and should get more out of their role players on the offensive side of the ball. I would also expect to see a better defensive effort than what the Thunder displayed in the first two games. Kevin Durant is also due for a big game and I look for him to deliver when his team needs him the most. Keep in mind that the Thunder won both regular season matchups at home without much problem. They won by 8 in November and 12 in early April. Going back over the previous 3 seasons, Oklahoma City is 8-1 in their last 9 home games against the Spurs. The Thunder are 18-8 in their last 26 home games revenging a loss, 13-4 in their last 17 after allowing 105+ in each of their last two games and 20-7 in their last 27 games after failing to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4. That's a 73% (51-19) system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City! |
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05-20-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185 | Top | 87-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Pacers/Heat UNDER While the Heat and Pacers combined to score 203 points and crush the total of 182 in Game 1, I'm not expecting that to keep up. It's not uncommon for the first game of a series to be high-scoring. Both teams shot better than 51% from the field in the first game, which won't hold up. Miami is only allowing 93.7 points in the playoffs and Indiana is only giving up 90.3 in the postseason. With Miami desperately needing a win to fall behind 0-2 and Indiana looking to make sure they leave with the homecourt advantage in tact, I look for both teams to lay it all on the line defensively in this one. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams failed to reach 85 points. Prior to the offensive explosion in Game 1, these two teams had scored fewer than 185 points in 7 of their 8 previous matchups, including each of the previous 3 at Indiana. The UNDER is 30-17 in the Pacers last 47 games off a double-digit home win, 33-13 in their last 46 games with a total set between 180 and 189.5 and 45-27 in the Heat's last 72 road games when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. That's a strong 65% system. Take the UNDER! |
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05-14-14 | PORTLAND GM5 v. SAN ANTONIO GM5 -7.5 | Top | 82-104 | Win | 100 | 34 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Spurs - The Trail Blazers may have kept the series going with a win at home in Game 4, but I strongly believe their season will come to an end tonight. As you would expect from a team with a 3-0 lead, the Spurs weren't able to match to the intensity of Portland. Knowing that there's a good chance the Clippers/Thunder series will be going to a Game 7, I look for San Antonio to be all business tonight, as their veterans could use the extra rest. San Antonio dominated the first three games of this series, winning all three by at least 15 points and I expect a similar result tonight. The Spurs will be much more focused on the defensive end after losing Game 4 and their offensive execution should be back to what we saw in Game 1, 2 and 3. The Spurs are 33-16 ATS off double-digit loss as a road favorite, while the Trail Blazers are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 road games off a win by double-digits. We also see that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 118-72 ATS since 1996. That's a strong 62% long-term system in favor of the Spurs! |
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05-11-14 | OKLAHOMA CITY GM4 v. LA CLIPPERS GM4 -5 | Top | 99-101 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Game of the Month on Clippers - |
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05-08-14 | Brooklyn Nets +8 v. Miami Heat | Top | 82-94 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Nets + I wasn't surprised at all to see the Heat dominate Game 1, as Miami had a huge rest advantage and the Nets were coming off that huge Game 7 road win over the Raptors. After a day to regroup and really focus in on the Heat, I expect Brooklyn to look like a completely different team in Game 2. Not only do I think the Nets will keep it close enough to cover, but they have a great shot at winning this game outright. One of the reasons the Nets were able to have success against the Heat during the regular season, is they slowed the game down and really made Miami work for their offense. That wasn't the case in Game 1, but I'm confident they will execute their game plan better tonight. Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games off a blowout loss by 15 or more points and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team that has won 60% or more of their home games, while the Heat are a mere 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 home games against a team that has won less than 40% of their road games. Combined that's a 76.5% (39-12) system in favor of the Nets! |
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05-07-14 | LA CLIPPERS GM2 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM2 -5.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Western Conference Game of the Year on Thunder - Forget what happened in Game 1. The Clippers, mainly Chris Paul, caught fire in the opener and Oklahoma City was ice-cold and turned the ball over 17 times. Los Angeles shot 54.9% from the field and a staggering 51.7% from behind the 3-point line. Paul was 12 of 14 (8-9 3pts) for 32 points. One of the key things that got overlooked is the Thunder kept Blake Griffin in check for the most part, as he was just 7 of 16 from the field. The home team has dominated the second round of the NBA playoffs over the years and tonight's matchup also falls into the zig-zag theory. Another thing to keep in mind is that all four regular season games were decided by 6 or more points. This is a big letdown spot for the Clippers and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Oklahoma City returned the favor and won here by double-digits. The Thunder are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games after a combined score of 215 or more, 50-29 ATS in their last 79 off a home loss and 17-7 in their last 24 home games revenging a straight up loss as a favorite. Explosive offensive teams scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 152-82 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% long-term system in favor of the Thunder! |
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05-02-14 | Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 | Top | 98-99 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Trail Blazers - I look for the Trail Blazers to close out the series at home tonight, making them an easy play as a 3.5-point favorite. I wasn't surprised to see the Rockets avoid elimination at home, but I just don't see Houston being able to play at the level in Portland. The Trail Blazers only lost that game by 10-points, which is pretty shocking considering they only got 8-points out of their All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge. The same guy that came into that contest averaging 35.3 ppg in the series. I look for Aldridge to bounce back in style and for the rest of the players to continue to play well. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a road loss to an opponent of 10 or more points in a matchup of two good teams are 118-70 ATS since 1996. That's a 63% system in favor of the Trail Blazers! Adding to this is the fact that Houston is just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games after a win by 10 or more points and just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 more consecutive games! |
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05-01-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 188 | Top | 95-88 | Win | 100 | 54 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Hawks/Pacers UNDER The fate of the Pacers season rest on this game and I expect their defense to show up after allowing the Hawks to shoot 50% from the field in Game 5. Keep in mind that Indiana had held Atlanta under 40% shooting in each of the previous three games and all three of those contests finished under the total. In the two games in this series played at Atlanta, the most these two teams have combined to score is just 183 points. In fact, each of the last 5 meetings, including the regular season, have all been extremely low scoring (184 or less) when these two teams play at Philips Arena. It doesn't come as a huge surprise, as the UNDER is 21-9 in the Hawks last 30 home games against good defensive teams that are holding opponents to 43% or less shooting. The UNDER is also 16-5 in Atlanta's last 21 home games in the 2nd half of the season against teams with a winning record. These two massive trends combine to form a huge 73% (37-14) system in favor of the UNDER! |
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04-22-14 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -5 | Top | 101-99 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Bulls - The Bulls let Game 1 get away from them, as they managed to blow a 13-point second half lead. Even with the loss, I still feel like Chicago is the better team and I fully expect them to bounce back with a dominating performance in Game 2. The Wizards will be content with going back to Washington tied 1-1, which will make it difficult for them to match the intensity of the Bulls in this one. I'm also confident the Bulls won't allow the Wizards to top 100 points and shoot 48.6% from the field like they did in Game 1. No team is better on the defensive end than Chicago. Tom Thibodeau and his staff will make the proper adjustments. Keep in mind that in the final regular season meeting the Bulls held Washington to just 78 points on 39.5% shooting. Few teams are as good as the Bulls at bouncing back from a loss. Chicago is 25-15 ATS revenging a loss to an opponent this season and 27-13 ATS in their last 40 games off a home loss. The Bulls are also a dominant 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing 100 or more points in their last contest! |
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04-21-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers -7.5 | Top | 98-138 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs First Round Game of the Year on Clippers - The Warriors stunned the Clippers in Game 1 of the series, as they came away with a 109-105 road win. However, I'm not convinced Golden State will be able to match that performance in Game 2. Blake Griffin played just 19 minutes because of foul trouble. Griffin is the most important player for Los Angeles and not having him on the floor completely changed the dynamics of that game. One of the big advantages the Clippers have in this series with the Warriors missing Andrew Bogut is their size. The fact that Griffin was able to score 16 points with 3 rebounds and 3 assists in such a limited amount of time, really says a lot about the impact he can have on the game. Not only can we expect Griffin to dominate in Game 2, but Jamal Crawford figures to play a bigger role after going just 2-11 from the field in 22 minutes off the bench.
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04-19-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors -3 | Top | 94-87 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs First Round Vegas Insider on Raptors - The Raptors are showing great value as a small home favorite against the Nets. Brooklyn is getting a little too much love right now. The Nets were not a great team away from home. They finished just 16-25 straight up on the road and were a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7. Toronto has won 8 of their last 10 home games and are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 home games versus a team that has won less than 40% of their games on the road. Toronto lost at home in the first meeting 100-102, but they came back and crushed the Nets at the Air Canada Centre 96-80 back in early January. Brooklyn won the final matchup between these two teams during the regular season by a score of just 101-97 at home. Toronto is 45-29 ATS over the last 3 seasons revenging a road loss. The Raptors were stronger both offensively and defensively during the regular season. Brooklyn ranked just 21st in scoring (98.5 ppg) and were 11th in points allowed (99.5 ppg). Toronto on the other hand ranked 13th in scoring (101.3 ppg) and 7th in points allowed (98.0). One of the reasons I think we are getting such great value on the Raptors is they went just 1-5 ATS over their last 6 games, including back-to-back non-covers to close out the regular season. Toronto is a dominant 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. |
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04-09-14 | Chicago Bulls -3 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | Top | 102-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
5* Non-Conference Game of the Month on Bulls - |
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03-27-14 | Dayton v. Stanford -3 | Top | 82-72 | Loss | -112 | 31 h 2 m | Show |
5* Sweet 16 Game of the Year on Stanford -
Dayton's Cinderella dream has run its course, and the Flyers are about to run into a nightmare when they face the Stanford Cardinal. The Flyers played an incredibly soft schedule to earn their way into the NCAA Tournament, and they were lucky enough to draw two of the most overrated teams in the tournament in the first two rounds. Of the 10 games Dayton played against NCAA Tournament teams this season, only one of those teams remains in the tournament today. Meanwhile, Stanford played 16 games against NCAA Tournament teams, and seven of those games came against teams that are still alive in the Sweet 16. The Cardinal may look similar on the stat sheet to Dayton, but after adjusting for strength of schedule it becomes obvious there is a great disparity in talent between these two. This matchup fits into a system that has a long history of success against the spread. You should play on teams like Stanford when the line is three points or less and they are averaging 12 or less turnovers per game, and are coming off five straight games forcing opponents to commit 14 or less turnovers. This system has a 235-181 (57%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. It is also worth noting that Stanford is 11-3 ATS versus teams averaging six or less steals per game after 15 or more games this season. |
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03-26-14 | San Diego +3.5 v. Pacific | Top | 60-75 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
5* Vegas Insider on San Diego +
These teams split there games during the regular season, but the last matchup was won by San Diego in a game that was played at Pacific. I don't think there is any reason to expect a different outcome today. The Toreros have one of the best defenses in the West Coast Conference, holding opponents to a mere 64.9 points per game. Pacific did not fare well against conference opponents this season. They posted a mere 6-13 record. The Tigers averaged a mediocre 70.6 points in those games, but on the defensive end of the court they surrendered an average of 75.8 points per game against the conference. These teams were also headed in opposite directions down the stretch. San Diego has won five of its last seven games while Pacific has lost five of its last eight games. San Diego is 30-11 ATS in road games when playing a team that has won just 51 to 60 percent of its games on the season. After 15 or more games in the season that system tightens up to a 20-5 ATS record. The Toreros are the better team, and regardless of venue they should be able to pick up a win. We will take the points, but expect to see San Diego come out on top tonight. |
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03-25-14 | Belmont v. Clemson -7 | Top | 68-73 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
5* NIT Game of the Year on Clemson -
The Clemson Tigers have flown under the radar for most of the season. It may come as a surprise to know that Clemson has the nation's fourth ranked scoring defense. The Tigers are the only team in the top five scoring defenses that are not still active in the NCAA Tournament. That is a good indication of just how important good defense is in the postseason. Clemson has held opponents to a mere 57.9 points per game. When playing at home that number drops to an even 54 points per game. The Tigers have a dominant 15-3 record when protecting their home court. They will face a Belmont team that sees a drastic drop in production when playing on the road. The Bruins have surrendered an average of 75.3 points in road games. Belmont has also been a big disappointment when playing on the road or on a neutral court in tournament games. They have a 5-14 ATS record in that situation over the last three seasons. This matchup fits into a system to play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Clemson when they are coming from a BCS conference and are playing against a team from a mid-major, and they are coming off two or more consecutive home wins. Clemson beat Georgia State and Illinois to start the NIT Tournament. This system has a 40-14 (74%) record against the spread. It is also worth noting the Tigers have won seven of their last 10 games coming into this matchup. |
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03-24-14 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Memphis Grizzlies -8 | Top | 92-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
5* Vegas Insider on Memphis Grizzlies -
Minnesota is playing in a very tough spot. The Timberwolves just lost at home against Phoenix last night, and now they have to try to avoid their third straight loss by playing on the road in the second half of a back-to-back situation where they will face the Memphis Grizzlies. Added to that is the fact that Memphis has been on fire, winning nine of its last 12 games. The biggest problem for Minnesota this season has been its defense. Minnesota has lost three of its last five games, and four of those five games resulted in losses against the spread. During that stretch the Timberwolves have surrendered an average of 117 points per game. Meanwhile, Memphis comes into this matchup holding opponents to a mere 84.8 points per game over its last five games. These teams are headed in opposite directions down the stretch, and the Grizzlies should have no problem picking up a big win tonight. This matchup fits into a system to play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Minnesota when they are coming off a home loss, and trying to revenge a home loss by their opponent. These teams met in Minnesota earlier this season and it was Memphis that picked up a four-point win. This system has a 119-76 (61%) ATS record over the last five seasons. |
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03-23-14 | Baylor v. Creighton -3.5 | Top | 85-55 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
5* West Region Game of the Year Creighton -
This matchup has blowout written all over it. The Creighton Bluejays are one of the best three-point shooting teams left in the tournament. They are making 42.1 percent of their three-point attempts this season. McDermott and Co. will have the luxury of facing a Baylor defense that has been soft around the perimeter. Baylor has allowed opponents to make 39.2 percent of their attempts when playing away from home. The Bluejays do not just have a three point shooting advantage, they also have advantages in rebounding and ball control. On the boards Creighton has allowed opponents just nine offensive rebounds per game. Without second chance shot attempts from offensive rebounds the Bears will struggle to keep pace with Creighton's high powered offensive attack. The Bluejays are also an excellent ball control team committing a mere 10 turnovers per game, so even if the Bears do decide to dial up some pressure it could likely widen Creighton's margin of victory. Creighton is a team that gets hot and plays extremely well. The Bluejays are 13-6 against the spread when coming off a win by 10 points or more this season. The Bluejays are also 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. The Bears do not have a player on the roster that can slow down Doug McDermott. Even if he gets double or triple teamed the Bluejays have very talented shooters around him. McDermott is coming into this game averaging 27 points, 7.1 rebounds and is shooting almost 46 percent on three point attempts. |
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03-22-14 | Oregon v. Wisconsin -5 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 34 h 21 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Wisconsin -
This game is being played in Milwaukee, so it is essentially a home game for the Badgers. That will be a huge advantage for them since Oregon had to travel across the country and its doubtful they will have much support from the fan base. The Ducks have to face a very smart basketball team. Wisconsin doesn't foul. Opponents who average 22 free throws per game are only getting 15 per game against them. Teams like Oregon that get to the line struggle against the Badgers as Wisconsin is 22-7 ATS against teams shooting 25 or more free throws per game in the second half of the season dating back to 1997. Oregon shoots an impressive 38.6% from behind the arc, but Wisconsin doesn't allow teams to shoot threes. Badgers are 8th best in the nation, allowing teams that shoot 18 threes per game to only get off 14 against them. On the flip side Oregon has been good at pressuring teams, which leads to turnovers forced, but also a lot of fouls. That's bad news on both fronts as Wisconsin turns the ball over 8 times per game, they aren't going to get flustered. They also shoot 75% from the line. The Ducks give up 27 free throws per game to teams that average only 23. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Badgers. You should play on neutral court favorites like Wisconsin after two straight games committing 11 or less turnovers, when they are up against an opponent coming off a game committing eight or less turnovers. BYU has one of the worst defenses in the region, and the oddsmakers have overvalued Oregon's ball control ability coming into this matchup. Wisconsin has a tough Big Ten defense and should easily shut the Ducks down. This system has a 96-51 (65%) record against the spread. |
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03-20-14 | Western Michigan v. Syracuse -12.5 | Top | 53-77 | Win | 100 | 50 h 58 m | Show |
5* Opening Round Game of the Year on Syracuse -
There is no denying the fact that Syracuse had a poor finish to the regular season, but they also played a very tough stretch of schedule to finish the year. This is still the same team that opened the season with a perfect 25-0 record. It is also worth noting that even though Syracuse lost five of its final seven games, four of those seven games were played on the road and three of the five losses came by four points or less. Western Michigan posted a respectable 23-9 record this season, but coming out of the MAC that does not mean a lot. They faced one ranked team all season, then No. 24 Missouri, and the Tigers are not even playing in the NCAA Tournament this season. I think the Broncos are severely outmatched against a top tier team like the Orange, and Syracuse runs the zone defense better than any team in the country so expect a lot of turnovers and little scoring from Western Michigan. Western Michigan relies heavily on its ability to get to the free throw line to win games. Syracuse is a perfect 8-0 ATS against teams attempting 25 or more three throws per game. The reason they have been so successful in these situations is because the Orange are a smart basketball team that avoids getting into foul trouble. Syracuse is also 8-2 ATS when playing only their second game in the last eight days this season. |
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03-19-14 | Princeton -7 v. Tulane | Top | 56-55 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
5* CBI Game of the Year on Princeton -
The Princeton Tigers are clearly the better team in this matchup. They finished the season riding a five game win streak, and posted a 20-8 overall record. Some might argue the Ivy league is soft, but even during non-conference play the Tigers put on a dominating 12-2 showing. They suffered a mere three point loss on the road against Butler, and held to within six points on the road against Harvard, a team now playing in the NCAA Tournament. The Tulane Green Wave finished the regular season headed in the opposite direction. They lost three of their last four games, and cannot be excited about playing in the CBI. The Green Wave had a wealth of issues on the offensive end of the court this year. Their 63.9 points per game ranks them 317th in the country for scoring. They are also 237th in rebounds per game, 348th in assists per game and 309th in shooting percentage from the field. The Princeton Tigers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games against conference USA opponents. They are 8-3 ATS in non-conference games. Tulane meanwhile is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games against teams winning 60 percent or more of their games. The Green Wave are severely outmatched in this game and the Tigers should have no problem picking up an easy win in their CBI opener. **I'd play this as a 5* up to -9 and 4* up to -10.** |
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03-16-14 | Charlotte Bobcats -6 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference No Doubt Rout of the Month on Bobcats -
The Bobcats are up against one of the league's worst teams tonight, and they should have no problem covering a single-digit number against them. Charlotte has won three straight coming into this matchup, and five of their last six. Meanwhile, the Bucks have lost six of their last seven games, and they are showing no signs of life as the regular season unwinds. Not only are the Bucks on a bad losing streak, they are also playing in a very tough back-to-back situation. Milwaukee was just on the road yesterday against New York, and now they have to immediately travel home to play host to the Bobcats. Playing in a back-to-back situation is tough on any team, but I expect it to really take its toll on this Bucks team that looks like they have thrown in the towel on their season. You should play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Milwaukee when they are playing in a double revenge situation having lost their last two games against their opponent, and they are coming into the matchup off of two or more consecutive road losses. This system identifies favorites that are being undervalued. It has resulted in a 117-67 (64%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |