Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-17-16 | Pistons +11 v. Cavs | Top | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs ATS No Brainer on Pistons + Detroit is showing great value here as a double-digit dog against the Cavaliers in their series opener. The Pistons played Cleveland tough during the regular season. They won 3 of the 4 meetings and the lone loss came by just 8 points. I'm not expecting Detroit to win this game, but I do think they are going to be able to keep it well within the number posted. The Pistons are simply built well to take on a team like the Cleveland, as they have the inside presence with Drummond to keep James from repeatedly attacking the rim for easy baskets. The Pistons also have the balance offensively to give the Cavaliers trouble on the defensive side of the ball. Cleveland went just 4-12 ATS against division opponents this season, winning by an average of just 2.2 ppg. Detroit on the other hand is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 4-1 in their last 5 against a division opponent. Take the Pistons! |
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04-16-16 | Celtics v. Hawks -5.5 | Top | 101-102 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Vegas Insider on Hawks - I really like the value here with the Hawks laying a very reasonable number at home against the Celtics. Atlanta really came on strong at the end of the year and I look for that momentum to carry over into the postseason. Boston is a quality team, but are not a great road team and playing away from home in the playoffs is no easy task. Another big key here for me is playoff experience and Atlanta clearly has the edge in that department after advancing to the conference finals a year ago. The Hawks are also playing exceptional on the defensive side of the ball, especially after the All-Star break. You here a lot about the Spurs and how good they are on defense. The Hawks had the best defense efficiency rating after the break in the league at 96.8 with San Antonio second at 99.3. Atlanta is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games against a team with a losing road record. It's also important to note that the Hawks were just 2-6 ATS in their final 8 games, which is helping the number here. The key is that they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6. Take Atlanta! |
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04-12-16 | Grizzlies +7.5 v. Clippers | Top | 84-110 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Grizzlies + The Grizzlies are showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Clippers. Memphis is still fighting for playoff position, while Los Angeles is locked into the No. 4 seed. The Grizzlies currently sit in sixth, 1/2-game back of Portland, but are also just 1/2-game ahead of seventh place Dallas. Avoiding the bottom two spots would keep them from having to play the Spurs in the first round. The Clippers aren't going to come out and say it, but you have to believe LA would rather face Memphis in the first round than the Trail Blazers. The Grizzlies don't figure to be much of a threat in the postseason, as they have lost both Conley and Gasol for the rest of the season. The Clippers also have no reason to be motivated for this game and their focus now is on getting as healthy as possible for the playoffs. Grizzlies are 23-13 ATS off a SU loss this season, while the Clippers are just 14-27 ATS in their last 41 home games off 3 or more consecutive wins and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games after making 50% or more of their 3-point shots in their previous game. Take Memphis! |
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04-11-16 | Mavs v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas ATS No Brainer on Jazz - The Jazz are showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against the Mavericks tonight. While both teams are still fighting to secure one of the final two playoff spots in the west. Dallas currently sits in 7th place, 1-game ahead of the Jazz in 8th and 2-games in front of the Rockets in 9th. I look for the Jazz to be the more motivated team at home in this one, as the Mavericks have some breathing room and get to host the Spurs in their finale, which will likely have San Antonio resting most of their star players. You also have to factor in that Dallas could be without both Barea and Williams, as they are both listed as questionable. Utah is also the fresher team here. This will be just the 3rd game in the last 6 days for the Jazz, while the Mavericks will be playing their 3rd in the last 4 days and 2nd of a back-to-back road set. Jazz are 16-6 ATS this season as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and it's worth noting they won the previous meeting 121-119 in Dallas, as the Mavericks are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 revenging a close loss of 3-points or less. Take the Jazz! |
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04-09-16 | Suns -1.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 121-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
5* No Limit NBA Top Play on Suns - Phoenix is showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Pelicans. The public will be inclined to back the Pelicans at home, as the Suns aren't exactly a team most feel comfortable laying points with on the road. However, the situation here heavily favors Phoenix, which is why the books have them listed as the favorite. New Orleans has basically lost everyone who they expected to play a major role this year to some kind of injury. The reserves and free agent signings have continued to play hard down the stretch, but this is one spot where I don't see the Pelicans being interested at all. New Orleans will be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 4th in the last 5 days overall. They won last night in LA 110-102, which adds to the likelihood of a letdown here against a bad team like Phoenix. Take the Suns! |
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04-08-16 | Grizzlies +6.5 v. Mavs | Top | 93-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
5* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Grizzlies + Memphis is showing great value here in what's an important game for both teams. While the Grizzlies have secured a playoff spot, they are still fighting for positioning. Right now Memphis is tied with Portland for 5th, which would have them playing the Clippers in the first round. If they end up 6-8 they will have to play either the Thunder, Spurs or Warriors. Dallas has won 5 straight to put them in a great position to make the playoffs, as they are 1-game ahead of 8th place Utah and 2.5 ahead of 9th place Houston. The recent run has been impressive, but I believe it has them overvalued here. Dallas has had to play at a much slower pace since losing Parsons and Williams, which I think plays into the strength of the Grizzlies. It also makes the 6.5-points that much more valuable, as this doesn't figure to be a high-scoring game. Memphis is 27-7 ATS in their last 34 off a win by 15 points or more as an underdog and are 30-13 ATS in their last 43 road games off an upset win as a home dog. Take Memphis +6.5! |
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04-07-16 | Wolves v. Kings -4.5 | Top | 105-97 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider *BEST BET* on Kings - Sacramento is actually showing great value here as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Timberwolves. This is the ultimate letdown spot for Minnesota, as they pulled off a huge upset in Tuesday's 124-117 overtime win at Golden State, where they overcame a 17-point deficit. There's just no way the Timberwolves are able to come close in bringing that same kind of energy here on the road against the Kings. Sacramento has been hit or miss of late but I look for them to come out motivated here off a loss at home last time out. The Kings also should have plenty of motivation to avoid getting swept by Minnesota in the season series. If the Timberwolves come out flat, this game could get way out of hand early. Lay the Points! |
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04-06-16 | Rockets v. Mavs +2 | Top | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Week on Mavs + Dallas is showing great value here as a home dog against the Rockets. In fact, my numbers suggest that the Mavericks should be the ones playing points. Dallas comes into this game having won 4 straight, but just aren't getting the respect they deserve due to the fact that they are dealing with injuries. Clearly the books are overreacting, as the Mavericks have gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games. Houston has been inconsistent all season and that's been the case of late. The Rockets are just 3-5 over their last 8, but are getting some love here after beating the Thunder 118-110 as a 3.5-point road dog. Key thing to keep in mind is OKC has nothing to play for right now (all but locked into the No.3 seed). This is basically a playoff game for these two teams and with that I give a big edge to the home team. Dallas currently sits 1/2-game ahead of 8th place Utah, but are just 1-game ahead of 9th place Houston. A win here could push the Mavericks 2-games up on the Rockets with just 4 to play. Take Dallas! |
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04-05-16 | Suns v. Hawks UNDER 208 | Top | 90-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Suns/Hawks UNDER I believe the books have set the bar way too high for tonight's total between the Suns and Hawks. Phoenix comes into his game really struggling to get anything going offensively. The Suns have failed to score 100 points in 3 straight and 8 of their last 10 overall. Their offensive woes figure to continue against the Hawks, who are going to come out extremely motivated off back-to-back losses to the Raptors and Cavaliers. Atlanta is currently sitting tied with Boston for the No. 3 seed in the east, but are just a 1/2 game ahead of both Miami and Charlotte. Homecourt is something the Hawks desperately want in the first round and getting the No. 3 seed ensures they won't see the Cavaliers until the conference finals. UNDER is 7-3 in the Hawks last 10 home games and 6-2 in their last 8 at home against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 21-8 in the Suns last 29 after allowing 100 or more in 5 straight games and 10-2 in their last 12 road games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who are called for 21 or less fouls per game. UNDER is also a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings of this series. Take the UNDER! |
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04-04-16 | Villanova +3 v. North Carolina | Top | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
5* NCAA Championship Game No Limit Top Play on Villanova + Both teams are coming off impressive wins in the Final 4 on Saturday. North Carolina defeated ACC rival Syracuse 83-66, while Villanova laid it on Oklahoma 95-51. I cashed in a huge ticket on the Wildcats against the Sooners (Game of Year) and I'm back on the Villanova bandwagon in the title game. Not to take anything away from the Tar Heels, but Syracuse was a favorable matchup for them, as unlike the other teams the Orange had beat up that point, North Carolina had a great understanding of how to attack their zone. The key to beating the Tar Heels is to force them into taking outside shots and limit easy looks in transition, two things Villanova does extremely well. I also look for the Wildcats to take away Marcus Paige to disrupt the flow of the Tar Heels offense. On the flip side of things, North Carolina defense isn't overwhelming and I look for them to struggle against the Wildcats, who can beat you both with the outside shot and their ability to drive inside and get easy looks with their passing. If the outside shots continue to fall at the rate they have been so far in the tournament, Villanova has a chance to take control of this game and cruise to an easy win and cover. Take the Wildcats! |
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04-03-16 | Pacers -4 v. Knicks | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Pacers - The Pacers are showing great value here as a mere 4-point favorite against the Knicks. Indiana comes into this game off an easy 115-102 win at Philadelphia yesterday and I look for them to carry over that momentum with another easy win today. The Pacers can't afford to lose to a team like New York right now, as they are sitting in the 8th and final playoff spot in the east, just two games up on the Bulls. New York comes into this game off an impressive 105-91 win at home against the Nets without Porzingis, which is definitely keeping this line low. What gets overlooked is the big advantage the Knicks had in that game with the Nets playing their 4th game in 5 days and fresh off a game the night before against the Cavaliers. Brooklyn simply didn't show up to play. There's simply not enough talent on the roster for the Knicks to compete with a motivated Pacers team without Porzingis. They also are without point guard Jose Calderon. New York is a mere 5-16 ATS in their last 21 as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points and just 10-23 ATS in their last 33 home games after playing their previous game at home. Lay the points! |
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04-02-16 | Villanova -2 v. Oklahoma | Top | 95-51 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
5* Final Four Game of the Year on Villanova - I'm not the least bit concerned about the fact that Oklahoma beat Villanova 78-55 earlier this season. While it's worth noting, these are two completely different teams right now. That game also saw Oklahoma shoot lights out, hitting 47% from the field and 54% from behind the 3-point line (14 of 26). Villanova on the other hand played one of their worst games of the season. The Wildcats shot just 31.7% from the field and were a miserable 4-32 (12.5%) from behind the 3-point line. Oklahoma is simply not that good of a defensive team and I'm confident we are going to see a much better showing from the Wildcats offense in this one. Let's not forget they just knocked off the best team in the Big 12 in Kansas, so taking down Oklahoma shouldn't be a problem. The big key here for me is the Villanova defense and how I believe it will give the Sooners problems. The Wildcats have been sensational on the defensive end in the NCAA Tournament holding all 4 opponents under 70 points. They made a talented Iowa offense look awful and held Kansas to just 59 points. One thing that gets lost in that first meeting with the Sooners, is the success that Villanova had against Buddy Hield. They held him to just 18 points on 6 of 17 shooting (zero assists). They made him work for everything he got and that's a staple for this team. Jay Wright isn't going to let your best player dominate the game. He's going to make the other guys step up. Without Hield playing at an elite level, I just don't trust the Sooners. If Villanova continues to shoot the ball as well as they have so far in the tournament, I think this game could actually get out of hand and the Wildcats could end up cruising to an easy win. Oklahoma is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after 15+ games against teams who average 12 or fewer turnovers per game and 5-13 ATS in their last 18 after 15+ games against a team with a winning record. Lay the points! |
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04-01-16 | Raptors v. Grizzlies +5.5 | Top | 99-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
5* No Limit NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies + Memphis is showing great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Raptors. The Grizzlies are simply being undervalued due to having lost 4 straight and 8 of 10 overall, but injuries have played a big part in that. Toronto also comes in off a big 105-97 home win and are perceived to be the much better team. While the Raptors are the better team, I don't see them being all that interested in this matchup. Toronto has made it clear that they aren't concerned about catching Cleveland for the No. 1 seed in the east and in the back of their minds, I believe they know their chances of Cleveland slipping are slim. That doesn't leave a whole lot to play for, as they are 6-games up on 3rd place Atlanta. Having just secured their 50th win of the season at home and a huge game against the Spurs on deck tomorrow, I wouldn't be surprised if rest was the primary focus in this one. Either key players sitting or playing limited minutes. With Memphis they just got back Randolph and Tony Allen is healthy, giving them a formidable lineup, even with Gasol and Conley out. This game also means a lot more to the Grizzlies, who have made it clear they want the No. 5 seed. Right now they are just 1.5-games up on 6th place Portland. I expect a max effort here at home for Memphis. Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, 11-2 ATS in their last 13 against the Eastern Conference and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after a game where both teams scored 105 or more points. Take the points! |
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03-31-16 | George Washington +2.5 v. Valparaiso | Top | 76-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
5* NIT Championship Game ATS No Brainer on George Washington + The Colonials are showing great value here as a dog against the Crusaders in the NIT Championship Game. George Washington played in the much stronger A-10 conference, while the Valparaiso built up their resume against bad teams in the Horizon. I was also much more impressed with the Colonials performance against San Diego St in the semifinals. George Washington made a very good Aztecs team look like they didn't belong on the same court. Offensively both of these teams have star players that they rely on. Alec Peters averages 18.4 ppg and 8.4 rpg for the Crusaders, while Tyler Cavanaugh averages 16.9 ppg and 7.6 rpg. The key here in my opinion is the supporting casts, which I give a strong edge to George Washington. The Colonials also get big contributions from Patricio Garino (14.1) and Kevin Larsen (12.1 ppg), while the only player for Valparaiso averaging double-figures is Keith Carter (10.4). Valparaiso is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a winning record and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win. George Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 33-18 ATS in their last 51 against strong rebounding teams, who average 40 or more per game. Take the points! |
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03-30-16 | Suns v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Game of the Month on Bucks - This might seem like a big number for Milwaukee to be laying at home, as the Bucks come into this game having lost 5 straight. However, those 5 losses have all come against quality opponents in the Jazz, Pistons, Cavaliers, Hawks and Hornets (3 of the 5 on the road). I look for Milwaukee to come out extremely motivated and make easy work of the Suns. Keep in mind that despite their poor overall record, the Bucks are a respectable 21-15 at home this season. Phoenix on the other hand is just 7-30 on the road, where they are getting outscored on average by nearly 12.0 ppg. The Suns are also a team that's more interested in tanking for a better chance at the top pick than finishing the season strong. I just don't see the effort being there on the road tonight. Phoenix just played on the road in Minnesota in their last game and are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after a road game where both teams scored 100+ points. They are also just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games overall and 8-24 ATS in their last 32 against a team with a losing record. Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points. Lay the points! |
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03-29-16 | BYU v. Valparaiso -2 | Top | 70-72 | Push | 0 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
5* NIT No Limit NCAAB *BEST BET* on Valparaiso - I really like the value we are getting with Valparaiso as a small favorite in tonight's NIT Semifinal matchup against BYU. The Crusaders have really been impressive in the NIT with double-digit wins over Texas Southern (84-73), Florida State (81-69) and St Mary's (60-44). This is a team that was expected to make the NCAA Tournament and are out to prove something in the NIT. BYU is a quality team and have also won 3 straight to reach the semifinals. However, they were fortunate to get by Virginia Tech (80-77) and had to hold on for a 88-82 win over Creighton. The Cougars were just 10-8 on the road and will be playing a long way from home in this one. Offensively, BYU comes in averaging an impressive 84.0 ppg. A big part of that is their 3-point shooting, as they average 9 makes a game and are shooting 38.4% from long-distance. Valparaiso is a defensive juggernaut, as they only give up 62.2 ppg. They do an excellent job of limiting opponents from the outside. They only give up an average of 6 made 3-pointers per game and are holding opponents to just 32.7% shooting from behind the 3-point line. On the flip side of this, the Crusaders average 75.7 ppg and will be taking on a BYU defense that gives up 75.4 ppg on the road. I'll take my chances on the team that will have the much easier time offensively and defense is one thing that always travels well. BYU is also just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games in post-season tournament play, while Valpo is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 with a line of +3 to -3. Lay the points! |
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03-28-16 | Thunder v. Raptors +2.5 | Top | 119-100 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
5* Thunder/Raptors NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Raptors + The Raptors are showing exceptional value here as a home dog against the Thunder. Toronto is a dominant 28-8 at home this season and simply put should not be getting points on their home floor. Oklahoma City has won 7 straight, but really don't have anything to gain in the standings, as they are all but locked into the No. 3 seed in the west. Toronto on the other hand is just 2.5-games back of Cleveland for the top spot in the east. Either way I expect a max effort here from the Raptors against a top level opponent, especially knowing that they are underdogs on their home floor. I expect Toronto's defense to be the difference in this one. The Raptors are giving up just 98.1 ppg at home, while OKC is allowing a staggering 106.2 ppg on the road. Thunder are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 road games off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Raptors on the other hand are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning record. Take the points! |
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03-27-16 | Notre Dame +10 v. North Carolina | Top | 74-88 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
5* No Limit NCAA Tournament *BEST BET* on Notre Dame + These two teams met twice already. Notre Dame won at home 80-76 back on Feb. 6, but were destroyed 47-78 in the ACC Tournament. That ugly loss in the most recent matchup combined with the Tar Heels recent rout of Indiana has created some decent value here on the Irish. Keep in mind that Notre Dame went on a ridiculous 24-0 run and the Irish shot a miserable 30% from the field. You can overreact to one game and I don't think it's out of the question that Notre Dame pulls off the upset. Either way I like them to keep it within double-digits. Keep in mind it's a lot harder to blowout a team from the same conference in the Big Dance, as each team knows what the opponent wants to do on both sides of the ball. Underdogs this deep in the tournament are typically a wise investment and Notre Dame is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a neutral court underdog over the last 3 seasons. Irish are also 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams who shoot 45% or better from the field and hold opponents to 42% or worse. Take the points! |
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03-26-16 | Villanova v. Kansas UNDER 145 | Top | 64-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament Total of the Year on Kansas/Villanova UNDER This is going to seem like a low total based on what these two teams have done offensively in their first three games of the tournament. Villanova has scored 86, 87 and 92 points, while Kansas has put up 105, 73 and 79. The key is what these two teams have done defensively. The Wildcats are only giving up an average of 64.3 ppg in the tournament and Kansas is allowing just 67.7 ppg. I look for the defenses to outperform the offenses in this one, especially with the magnitude of this game and the winner going to the Final 4. Opponents are shooting just 39.7% against the Jayhawks on the season and that's saying something given the talent they face in the Big 12. Offensively Kansas shoots 42.2% from the 3-point line, but that plays into the strength of the Villanova defense, which has held opponents to just 33.9% shooting from long distance. UNDER is 17-4 in Kansas' last 21 games after after 15+ games against teams who shoot 45% or better from the field and 11-4 on the season against teams outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game. UNDER is also 10-2 in the Jayhawks last 12 games with a line of +3 to -3 and 8-2 in their last 10 off 2 straight wins by 10 or more points. Take the UNDER! |
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03-25-16 | Wisconsin v. Notre Dame -1 | Top | 56-61 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament No Limit *BEST BET* on Notre Dame - The Fighting Irish are showing great value here at basically a pick against the Badgers. Wisconsin is getting a lot of love for their wins over Pittsburgh and Xavier, but both of those teams played right into the strength of the Badgers defense. Wisconsin does an exceptional job of running teams off the 3-point line and forcing them to beat you inside. Teams like Pitt and Xavier that rely on the outside shot are ones they can compete with. On the flip side of this, teams who efficient at scoring inside have made easy work of the Badgers defense this season. If you can score on Wisconsin's defense, you can put the game away, as the Badgers are extremely limited on the offensive side of the floor. It's going to take a light's out shooting performance from Wisconsin just to keep this game close and I'll take my chances on that not happening. Take Notre Dame! |
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03-24-16 | Miami (Fla) v. Villanova -4 | Top | 69-92 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Villanova - The Wildcats are showing great value here against the Hurricanes. Villanova is shooting the lights out of the basketball right now and may very well be the best team in the tournament that no one is talking about with a legit shot to win it all. Previous years the Wildcats have stumbled in the tournament, but they came in not shooting the ball well. This year's team is a whole different beast. Not only can they light it up from the outside, but they can penetrate and score inside, plus get easy baskets in transition. They are also a lot better defensively than what people give them credit for. The pressure they put on the Iowa guards put the game away early. Villanova does an exceptional job of taking away the opposing teams point guard. If the Wildcats can limit Rodriguez the Hurricanes are going to struggle to keep up offensively. Other team that's have taken away Rodriguez have had great success against the Hurricanes and those teams aren't nearly as strong defensively as Villanova. Lay the points! |
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03-23-16 | Mavs v. Blazers -6 | Top | 103-109 | Push | 0 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Blazers - The Trail Blazers are showing great value here at home against the Mavericks. These two teams just played in Dallas on Sunday, which the Mavericks won 132-120 in overtime. It's extremely difficult beating the same team in consecutive games, especially when that next meeting is on the road. I look for Portland to come out with one of their best efforts of the season tonight and put away the Mavericks early. Even with the win over the Blazers, Dallas is just 2-7 in their last 9 overall. Things don't figure to get better now that they lost Chandler Parsons to a season-ending injury. We are also catching Portland undervalue due to a brutal schedule they have had to deal with of late. The Blazers have played 11 of their last 13 on the road. There's no doubt in my mind they will be extremely motivated to get back on track at home. This is also a tough spot for the Mavericks, as they could find themselves looking ahead to Friday's road showdown against the Warriors. Dallas is just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games after covering the spread in their last contest and 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 road games against a team with a winning home record. Portland is 13-4 ATS this season as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after losing 3 of their last 4 and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss by more than 10 points. Lay the points! |
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03-22-16 | Hornets v. Nets +6.5 | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
5* No Limit NBA *BEST BET* on Nets + Brooklyn is showing great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Hornets. Charlotte is in the ultimate letdown spot here, as they used every ounce of energy they had in last night's improbable win over the Spurs. The Hornets trailed 7-30 early in the 2nd quarter, but were able to rally for a 91-88 victory. I just don't see Charlotte coming out with the kind of energy needed to turn this into a blowout. Not only are the Hornets playing the 2nd of a back-to-back set on the road, but this will be their 5th game in the last 7 days overall. It's also important to keep in mind that Charlotte is not the same team on the road as they are at home. The Hornets are just 13-19 on the road, compared to 27-11 at home. Brooklyn isn't a great team by any means, but I expect the Nets to come out with some energy at home after getting the last 2 days off. The Nets will also be getting back Brook Lopez after he sat out the last game. Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU loss by more than 10 points, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 when playing on 2 days of rest. Take the points! |
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03-21-16 | Spurs v. Hornets +6 | Top | 88-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Hornets + Charlotte is showing great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Spurs. This is simply a bad spot for San Antonio off that huge win at home against the Warriors. The Spurs invested everything they had in beating Golden State and are almost certainly going to suffer a letdown on the road against a Hornets team that is quietly playing their best basketball of the season. Charlotte comes in off a 93-101 loss at home to the Nuggets as a 9-point favorite, which is definitely helping the value here. However, that lackluster performance against Denver, likely had a lot to do with them looking ahead to this game. The Hornets are 15-4 over their last 19 games and haven't lost back-to-back games when playing at home all season. This is also a big revenge game for Charlotte, as they got embarrassed by 20-points at San Antonio earlier this season. Hornets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when revenging a road loss of 10 or more points and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Spurs are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 off a SU win and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 against the east. Take the points! |
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03-20-16 | Middle Tennessee v. Syracuse -6.5 | Top | 50-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament Vegas Insider *BEST BET* on Syracuse - Middle Tennessee played a near perfect game against Michigan State and as a result are coming into today's Round of 32 matchup against Syracuse way overvalued. It's also a lot harder for a team like the Blue Raiders to bounce back off a monumental win like they had against the Spartans, who many had winning the tournament. One of the keys here is that the Orange are a difficult team to prepare in just 1 day. Syracuse's zone is not the same kind of zone that teams are use to facing. You might think that given how well Middle Tennessee shoots the 3-ball, the zone would be a good fit for them. However, opponents are shooting just 30.4% from behind the 3-point line against Syracuse this season. They also average 3 fewer attempts than what they normally put up. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Blue Raiders. Underdogs of 3.5-9.5 points who are 4 or more consecutive wins are just 20-52 (28%) ATS in the NCAA Tournament when seeded 13 through 16. Lay the points! |
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03-19-16 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Iowa State -6.5 | Top | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
5* No Limit NCAA Tournament *BEST BET* on Iowa State - I really like the value here with the Cyclones as a decently priced favorite against the Trojans. Arkansas-Little Rock is fortunate just to be playing today, as they trailed by 13-points with less than 4 minutes to play against Purdue on Thursday. The Trojans rallied from that deficit to force overtime, where they won in double-overtime 85-83. The key thing to keep in mind here is that they are playing in the thin-air of Denver. That's going to make bouncing back on just 1-day of rest very difficult. Another advantage here for Iowa State is they got the chance to watch the Trojans after their easy 13-point win over Iona. The Cyclones play at a fast pace and that's going to make it even harder on Little Rock to keep up on the scoreboard. The Trojans are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 after a game where both teams scored 80+ points and 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games after a combined score of 165 or more. Iowa State on the other hand is an impressive 13-4 ATS in their last 17 tournament games. Lay the points! |
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03-18-16 | Syracuse +1.5 v. Dayton | Top | 70-51 | Win | 100 | 26 h 59 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament Vegas Insider *BEST BET* on Syracuse - You could make a strong case that the Orange don't belong in the Tournament, but that's besides the point now. The key here is that this is a great matchup for Syracuse, plus I'm not all that convinced that the A-10 was as good as people think. Dayton had some quality non-conference wins, but they also lost by 29-points to Xavier and fell at home to Chattanooga. The Flyers are a team that likes to use a lot of movement on offense to create easy looks. That isn't going to be all that effective against Syracuse's zone. In fact, Dayton really struggled this season against teams who played exclusively zone defense. On the other side of the ball, Dayton does an outstanding job of protecting the rim and not letting team get easy looks inside. That's great if you were playing a team that likes to pound the ball inside, but the Orange are a team that loves to shoot the 3-point shot. They have four different plays who each attempted over 100 3-point shots this season and all four hit at least 34%. I'll put my trust in Boeheim to have Syracuse ready to play and wouldn't be shocked if the Orange won this one going away. Syracuse is 32-14 ATS in their last 46 neutral court games as an underdog and 28-11 ATS in their last 39 when listed as a dog of 6 or less on a neutral floor. Take the points! |
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03-17-16 | Providence -2 v. USC | Top | 70-69 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament Opening Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Providence - Of all the first round games of the NCAA Tournament, this is without a doubt my favorite play. Providence is built for postseason success. They have an elite guard in Kris Dunn and a matchup nightmare in 6-9 forward Ben Bentil. USC on the other hand is a team that I didn't feel deserved to make the tournament. Almost all of the Trojans success this season came at home, where they finished the year 16-2. USC won just 5 games on the road and none of those were against a team as talented as what they will face in the Friars. Making things even tougher on the Trojans is they got the unfortunate draw of having to play in Raleigh. Traveling clear across the country isn't going to help those road problems. Another thing I look at is how a team closed out the year. USC went just 3-7 over their last 10 ames. That included a 11-point loss at home to Utah, 20-point loss at Stanford, 22-point loss at Cal and 10-point loss at home to Oregon. I also give a big edge here to the Friars with head coach Ed Cooley and his ability to prepare for an opponent. He's going to have his team ready for what USC likes to do offensively and they aren't going to let the Trojans get out and get easy points in transition. All this adds up to what should be any easy win for Providence. Lay the points! |
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03-16-16 | Tulsa +4 v. Michigan | Top | 62-67 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
5* Tulsa/Michigan First Four NO BRAINER on Tulsa + The media has taken it out on Tulsa and how they didn't deserve to be included in the field of 68. That makes the Golden Hurricanes a dangerous team. It also has them showing great value here against the spread, as the public wants nothing to do with them. Michigan on the other hand is way over-valued due to upsetting Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament. Keep in mind they could have just as easily lost their tournament opener against Northwestern and would be playing in the NIT. Indiana has also had serious problems playing well in the Big Ten tournament, so that win isn't as impressive as you might think. Prior to those two wins they had lost 6 of their previous 9. I don't trust this team away from home and fully expect the Golden Hurricanes to win this game outright. Tulsa has gone an impressive 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games. They are also a strong 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 off a SU loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Michigan is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 overall and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against at team with a winning record. Take the points! |
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03-15-16 | Celtics v. Pacers OVER 207 | Top | 98-103 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
5* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Celtics/Pacers OVER While the Celtics failed to score 100+ for the first time in 9 games in their last game and the Pacers managed just 75 points at Atlanta last time out, I look for both offenses to put on a show tonight. The Celtics 98-point effort against the Rockets was simply a result of an off night shooting. Boston comes in averaging 106.1 ppg. Both of these team rank in the top 10 in pace of play, with the Celtics the better of the two at No. 3. With Boston coming into this game having not played since last Friday, we can expect the Celtics to be running up and down the floor. They should be able to have their way with a Pacers defense that has given up 100+ in two straight. I also look for Indiana to score at will here. The Celtics are giving up 103.7 ppg on the road overall and have allowed 113.6 ppg over their last 5 away from home. No surprise, every one of those games finished over the total. OVER is 38-15 in Boston's last 53 road games when playing with 3 or more days of rest and the OVER is 36-7 over the last 5 seasons in games with a total of 200 or more where you have a team playing 3 or less games in 10 days that has lost 2 of their last 3. OVER is also 46-19 on Tuesday over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off a road blowout loss by 20 or more. Take the OVER! |
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03-14-16 | Mavs +7 v. Hornets | Top | 107-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Mavericks + Dallas comes into this game having lost 5 straight and as a result we are getting great value on the Mavericks here as a decently priced road dog against the Hornets. Charlotte on the other hand is overvalued due to winning 7 straight. Not to take anything away from the Hornets, but their 7-game winning streak has come against a favorable schedule and 6 of the 7 have come at home. As poorly as the Mavericks have been playing of late, they are still tied for 7th in the west. With that said, Dallas can't continue to play this bad and I look for an all out effort here against Charlotte. The Hornets on the other hand are due for a letdown. Charlotte has allowed 100+ points in 5 straight an eventually that poor defensively will catch up to them. Dallas is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season when listed as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 off 2 or more consecutive home losses. Charlotte is just 5-8 ATS in their last 13 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after 3 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers. Take the points! |
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03-13-16 | Cavs v. Clippers UNDER 208.5 | Top | 114-90 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Clippers NBA Heavy Hitter on UNDER I'm expecting both teams to come out sluggish, which should lead to a much lower scoring game than the books are expecting. Rarely do you see teams on the west coast playing this early in the day and on top of that, players have to adjust to daylight savings time. This is also a big time matchup, which tends to lead to a lot more effort on the defensive end. Both of teams can light it up offensively and that overshadows how good they are defensively. Both of these teams rank in the Top 8 in defensive efficiency. Cleveland is only giving up 97 ppg on the road and the Clippers are allowing just 98.8 ppg at home. UNDER is 13-4 in the Cavaliers last 17 after covering 4 of their last 5, 22-10 in their last 32 games played on Sunday and 4-1 in their last 5 when playing on 2 days of rest. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Clippers last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record, 10-2 in their last 12 after scoring 100+ in their previous game and 22-5 in their last 27 when facing an opponent who allowed 100+ in their previous game. Take the UNDER! |
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03-12-16 | Pelicans v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Bucks - The Pelicans are no longer a threat to make the playoffs, as they are 8.5-games back of 8th place Dallas with just 18 games left on the schedule. They also have to pass 3 other teams ahead of them just to get to the Mavericks. This is a team that is going to struggle to play hard down the stretch, as they came into this season with the expectation of making the playoffs. This is an especially difficult spot for New Orleans. The Pelicans lost in overtime last night at Memphis and will now be playing on no rest in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. Four of the five starters played 40+ minutes and Ryan Anderson played 37 off the bench. Making it even harder to get up for this game is the fact that they have the Warriors on deck Monday. Milwaukee on the other hand comes in off a win at home over Miami and will be playing on 2 days of rest. Bucks are also a respectable 19-12 at home, while the Pelicans are just 7-25 on the road. New Orleans is just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after allowing 120 or more points. Milwaukee is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games after losing 2 of their last 3. Lay the points! |
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03-11-16 | Davidson v. St Bonaventure -1 | Top | 90-86 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
5* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on St Bonaventure - The Bonnies are showing great value here at basically a pick'em against the Wildcats. St. Bonaventure has quietly been playing their best basketball of the season. The Bonnies closed out the regular season with 5 straight wins and won 10 of their last 11 overall. Davidson was able to defeat Lasalle 78-63 yesterday in their A-10 Tournament opener, but this is not a team that you can trust on the road. The Wildcats went just 4-10 away from home all season and that includes a 12-point loss at St Bonaventure. The Bonnies also have a big advantage here having received a first round bye. St Bonaventure is 6-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons in the month of March, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games after scoring 75+ points in each of their last 2 games. Take the Bonnies! |
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03-10-16 | Georgia Tech v. Virginia -9.5 | Top | 52-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
5* NCAAB ACC Game of the Month on Virginia - Georgia Tech rallied from an 18-point deficit to stun Clemson 88-85 in the opening round of the ACC Tournament yesterday. As impressive as that wins looks on paper, it has the Yellow Jackets in an awful spot tonight against a Virginia team that is playing their best basketball and fighting for a No. 1 seed. Making matters even worse for Georgia Tech is they are going to get a pissed off Virginia team, as the Cavaliers will be out for revenge from a 64-68 road loss back in early January. Virginia wasn't playing anywhere close to the level that they were to close out the season. With the way they get it after it defensively and the Yellow Jackets not having a whole lot left in the tank, this game should get ugly in a hurry. Neutral court teams that are revenging a loss as a favorite and are coming off 3 straight covers as a favorite are 25-5 (83%) ATS since 1997. Lay the points! |
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03-10-16 | Tennessee v. Vanderbilt -10 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
5* NCAAB SEC Game of the Month on Vanderbilt - Tennessee was able to come away with an impressive 97-59 win over Auburn in the opening round of the SEC Tournament, but that's nothing to get excited about. Without Kevin Punter the Volunteers are simply not a serious threat and I look for them to struggle to keep it competitive against the Commodores. Vanderbilt owned Tennessee in both meetings during the regular season, winning by 14 on the road and 17 at home. While you might think that could be reason for Vanderbilt not to take the Volunteers seriously, I don't believe that will be the case. Tennessee was the team responsible for knocking out Vanderbilt in last year's SEC Tournament. Prior to their win against the Tigers, the Volunteers closed out the regular season with 4 straight losses, all by 10 or more points. Those struggles were a direct result of Punter's absence and not having him on no rest will be too much to overcome. Lay the points. |
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03-09-16 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 201 | Top | 108-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year on Heat/Bucks UNDER I'm expecting a defensive showdown in tonight's matchup between the Bucks and Heat. Neither of these teams like to play at a fast pace. Milwaukee ranks 22nd in pace and the Heat are 26th. I look for the defensive intensity to be there for both teams. Miami has had the last 2 days off and will be motivated to get a win with road games at Chicago and Toronto on deck. Milwaukee is coming off back-to-back losses and will be focused here against a top level team at home. These two teams combined for 210 points in the most recent meeting on 1/29. However, both teams shot lights out from the field. Milwaukee hit 47.5% of their field goal attempts and the Heat were even better at 50%. Keep in mind the total for that game was just 194.5. The previous meeting this season at Miami only saw a combined score of 170. I just think there's too much value here with the total over 200. UNDER is 12-2 in the Heat's last 14 road games as a favorite of 3 or less, 11-2 in their last 13 road games when playing with 2 days of rest, 10-3-2 in their last 15 against a team with a losing record and 10-3 in their last 13 against the Central. UNDER is also 9-2-2 in the Bucks last 13 against a team with a winning record, 8-3 in their last 11 after scoring 100 points and 6-1-1 in their last 8 home games against Miami. Take the UNDER! |
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03-08-16 | Gonzaga -2 v. St. Mary's | Top | 85-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
5* Gonzaga/St. Mary's NCAAB *BEST BET* on Gonzaga - I backed the Bulldogs with success last night in their win over BYU and I'm jumping right back on the train with Gonzaga as a small favorite against St. Mary's. The Bulldogs are really clicking offensively right now. Gonzaga has scored 92 and 88 points in their first two games of the WCC Tournament, which is important to note. St Mary's won both of the regular season meetings, but were fortunate to do so in both. They won by 3-points at home after trailing by 8 at the half. They then won by 5 at Gonzaga thanks to the Bulldogs shooting just 35.5% from the field and 19.2% from behind the 3-point line. Beating a top level team like Gonzaga 3 times in the same season is extremely difficult to do and I look for the Bulldogs to get their revenge and punch an automatic ticket to the NCAA Tournament. The most recent loss in this series was a home and that sets up the Bulldogs in a great situation. Gonzaga is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games when revenging a loss as a home favorite. Bulldogs are also 30-16 ATS in their last 46 after two straight games with a combined score of 155 or more and have won these by an average of 14.4 ppg. Lay the points! |
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03-07-16 | Bucks v. Bulls -7 | Top | 90-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA Central Division Game of the Month on Bulls - Chicago finds themselves sitting tied with the Pistons for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls had really been struggling with injuries and as a result were just 3-9 in their previous 12 before knocking off the Rockets at home 108-100 on Saturday. That win over Houston marked the return of Jimmy Butler. With Chicago finally starting to get healthy and their playoff lives at stake, I look for the Bulls to go on a big run down the stretch. Either way, this is a great spot to back Chicago at home against the Bucks. Milwaukee is not a great road team. The Bucks are just 8-25 away from home. Making matters worse, is the fact that Milwaukee will be playing on no rest after a big home game yesterday against the Thunder, which they lost 96-104. Five different players logged 30+ minutes, with Parker, Antetokounmpo and Middleton all playing 36 or more. I just don't see Milwaukee being able to match the intensity of the Bulls in this one. Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against the Bucks. Milwaukee is also just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing 60 or more in the 1st half of their last game. Lay the points! |
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03-06-16 | Mavs -3 v. Nuggets | Top | 114-116 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit *BEST BET* on Mavs - The Mavericks are showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Nuggets. Dallas has won 4 straight in the series and Denver is headed in the wrong direction. The Nuggets have lost 6 of their last 8, including an ugly home loss to the Nets last time out. Things don't figure to get better for Denver with Danilo Gallinari still sidelined and the Mavericks can't afford to lose this game in the playoff race. This is also a big bounce back game for Dallas, as they come in off a 101-104 loss at home to the Kings as a 6.5-point favorite. Offensively the Mavericks have been lights out, scoring 100+ in 9 straight games. Denver has allowed 100+ in 4 straight and 7 of 8 overall. The Nuggets come in giving up 106.5 ppg. With Dallas playing on 2 days rest, I just don't see Denver being able to make enough stops here to keep this game close. Mavericks are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games after 4 straight game where both teams scored 100+ points, 18-9 ATS in their last 27 after a game in which they failed to cover the spread and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Denver is 1-4 ATS last 5 at home and 1-5 ATS last 6 after scoring 100+ in their previous game. Lay the points! |
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03-05-16 | Kansas State v. Texas Tech -5 | Top | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big 12 Game of the Month on Texas Tech - The Red Raiders are showing exceptional value here at home against the Wildcats. Texas Tech is on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament and simply can't afford to lose this game. That's not the only reason we can count on the Red Raiders to bring one of their best efforts of the season. Texas Tech will be highly motivated off back-to-back ugly losses to Kansas and West Virginia (both on the road) and will also be out for revenge from an ugly 13-point loss at Kansas State. Prior to dropping back-to-back games on the road to the Jayhawks and Mountaineers, the Red Raiders were playing as well as any team in the conference. Texas Tech has won 5 straight, which included impressive home wins over Iowa State and Oklahoma and a big road win over Baylor. Kansas State comes into this game off a 25-point blowout win at home against TCU, which is definitely playing into this number. However, that was a golden spot for the Wildcats. The Horned Frogs are awful on the road and no reason for them to get up for a below average team like Kansas State. On the flip side, the Wildcats were playing their final home game, so they gave max effort. Now it's Tech playing their home finale and I look for an easy win for the Red Raiders. Texas Tech is 34-19 ATS in their last 53 home games off a loss by 15 or more and 24-11 ATS in their last 35 after playing 2 straight on the road. Red Raiders are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a losing road record. Kansas State is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Lay the points! |
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03-04-16 | Wizards v. Cavs -8 | Top | 83-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
5* NBA Situational *BEST BET* on Cavs - The Cavaliers are going to be all business when they take the floor tonight against the Wizards, who they just lost to at Washington by 14-points on Sunday. Keep in mind that win for the Wizards came with LeBron James sitting out due to rest. This is a statement game for the Cavaliers as they are just 2-3 in their last 5 overall. We can count on a max effort here from Cleveland. Not only will the Cavaliers be motivated with revenge, but they come into this game having had the last 3 days off. Even more incentive is that this is a nationally televised game on ESPN. Washington has won 4 straight and 7 of 9 overall, but 5 of those wins came at home and the two on the road were against the 76ers and Timberwolves. Wizards will also be playing their 4th game in 6 days, which is no easy task on the road. Wizards are just 10-25 ATS in their last 35 after covering 3 of their last 4 and 11-22 ATS in their last 33 off a road win. Washington is also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Cleveland is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 when playing with 3 or more days of rest. Lay the points! |
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03-03-16 | Connecticut v. SMU -5.5 | Top | 54-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
5* American Athletic Game of the Month on SMU - The Mustangs have put together a tremendous season, despite the fact that they are not eligible for postseason play. SMU has gone 24-4 and come into this game riding a 3-game winning streak. The only thing left for the Mustangs to play for is a conference title and right now they are tied with Temple on top the standings. This is also a big game for several of the SMU players, as this will be their final home game of the season. Connecticut comes in trying to fight out of slump. The Huskies have lost 2 of 3, including an ugly 68-75 home loss to Houston last time out. Connecticut was able to hold on for a 68-62 win at home over SMU back on 2/18, which also plays into the favor of the Mustangs, as they will be out for revenge. Huskies are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 5-17 ATS in their last 22 road games with a total set at 130 to 134.5 points. SMU on the other hand is 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games after allowing 30 points or less in the 1st half of their last game, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after a win by 20 or more and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games with a total of 130 to 134.5. Lay the points! |
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03-02-16 | Blazers v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 93-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Celtics - The Trail Blazers come into this game having won 3 straight and 14 of their last 16 overall. Portland is also an impressive 8-2 ATS in their last 10. This might seem like a fair number to back the Blazers on the road against the Celtics, but this is a horrible spot for Portland. Not only will the Trail Blazers be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but this will be their 4th road game in the last 5 days overall. At the same time, it's not like Boston hasn't been playing well of late. The Celtics have won 3 straight and are 14-4 in their last 18. Boston has been especially good at home, where they have won 11 straight. The Celtics will simply be the much fresher team in this one. Boston had yesterday off and this will be their 4th straight at home. Trail Blazers are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after playing 3 straight non-conference games and 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 road games against at team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Boston is 12-3 ATS this season in games with a total of 210 or more, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, 6-1 in their last 7 off 1 day of rest and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Lay the points! |
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03-01-16 | Indiana v. Iowa -4 | Top | 81-78 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
5* NCAAB No Limit *BEST BET* on Iowa - The Hawkeyes are showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against the Hoosiers. Iowa has stumbled of late with 3 straight loss and have failed to cover 5 in a row. That's a big reason why we are getting a favorable line with the Hawkeyes at home. What gets overlooked is that Iowa could have easily won each of their last 3 games, as they were right there with a chance to win late. I look for an inspired effort here from the Hawkeyes in their home finale, as Iowa sends out 4 senior starters. The Hawkeyes are also a dominant 13-1 at home this season and will be out for revenge from a 78-85 loss at Indiana. The Hoosiers are 5-3 on the road in the Big Ten, but those 5 wins have come against Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota, Michigan and Illinois. Indiana is just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off a conference win by 10 or more points, 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games after covering 2 of their last 3, and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games after a blowout win by 20 or more. Iowa is 8-1 ATS at home over the last 3 seasons against teams who average 21 or more 3-point attempts and a perfect 6-0 in this spot after 15+ games. Lay the points! |
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02-29-16 | 76ers +12.5 v. Wizards | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on 76ers + Philadelphia is showing exceptional value here as a double-digit road dog against the Wizards. This will be the 3rd meeting between these two teams this month. Washington won by 12-points at home as a 9-point favorite back on 2/5 and then by 9-points as a 7-point favorite at Philadelphia last Friday. We are simply seeing an overreaction here based on how both teams performed yesterday. Washington beat the Cavaliers 113-99, while the 76ers lost 116-30 at Orlando. Even though the Wizards win over Cleveland came without LeBron James, they were emotionally invested in that game. I just don't see Washington being all that interested with this matchup against Philadelphia. Keep in mind that this is only the second time all season the Wizards have been favored by double-digits. The previous time was at home agains the Lakers, where they lost outright 104-108 as a 10-point favorite. Wizards are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 following a win by more than 10-points and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 when facing an opponent who scored 100 or more points in their previous game. Washington is also just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points and 0-3 ATS this season after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Take the points! |
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02-28-16 | Heat v. Knicks UNDER 198 | Top | 98-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
5* NBA Total of the Week on Knicks/Heat UNDER I really like the value we are getting here with the total for tonight's game between the Heat and Knicks. Miami is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, allowing just 96.9 ppg, and are going to have to rely on that defense on the road in the second game of a back-to-back set. Knicks have scored 100+ in two straight, but are only averaging 99.4 ppg on the season. New York has started to show signs of life in their last two games and held the Magic to just 95 points on 41.9% shooting in their last game. Miami's offense is not great. The Heat only average 93.9 ppg and the offense will be adjusting to newly acquired Joe Johnson. It's also important to note that both of these teams like to play at a slow pace. Miami ranks 28th in pace and the Knicks aren't far behind at 25th. These two teams have played 3 times already this season and the most they have combined for is 188 points and two of the 3 saw fewer than 180 points. UNDER is 14-5 in the Heat's last 19 with a line of +3 to -3, 24-9 in their last 33 after allowing 100+ in two straight games and 21-9 in their last 30 revenging a home loss. UNDER is also 19-6-1 in the Knicks last 26 against a team with a winning record, 6-2 in their last 10 at home and 5-1 in their last 6 after covering the spread last time out. Take the UNDER! |
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02-27-16 | Louisville v. Miami (Fla) -3.5 | Top | 65-73 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami - The Hurricanes are showing exceptional value here against the Cardinals. Miami and Louisville both sit tied for 2nd in the ACC standings at 11-4, but the big difference is that only the Hurricanes are eligible for postseason play. I know Louisville has been playing well since the ban was put in place, but they are getting too much respect here on the road. Louisville lost at Duke 65-72 and at Notre Dame 66-71 in their first two road games after the ban was announced. They they won two straight at home before going on the road to beat Pitt last time out. That win over the Panthers was their only conference road win against a team with a winning conference record and Pitt is just 8-7. Miami is 14-1 at home with a perfect record at home inside ACC play. Hurricanes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a home favorite of 6 or less and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games after playing their previous game at home. Louisville is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7. Add it up and that's a perfect 19-0 system backing Miami! Laying the points! |
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02-26-16 | Magic v. Knicks -1.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week on Knicks - New York is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Magic. The Knicks have lost 9 of their last 10 overall, but I believe there is a lot of fight left in this team. They certainly came to play last time out at Indiana, where they lost by just 3-points as a 6-point dog. I look for New York to come out extremely motivated at home tonight, as they desperately need a win to get this thing headed back in the right direction. Luckily for the Knicks they catch the Magic in a tough spot. Orlando will be playing in the 2nd game of the a back-to-back set and are going to find it difficult to get excited about this matchup after laying it all on the line last night at home against the Warriors. A game they were competitive in up until late in the 4th quarter. Orlando also has to have some tired legs. Their last two games have seen combined scores of 239 and 244. Magic are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after giving up 125 or more. Knicks are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 when playing with double-revenge against an opponent (2 straight losses) and 3-0 ATS in their last 3 off a road loss by 3-points or less. Lay the points! |
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02-25-16 | UCLA v. California -6.5 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
5* Pac-12 Game of the Month on California - This may seem like a big number for the Golden Bears to be laying against UCLA, but I actually think we are getting some great value here with California. The Golden Bears are a perfect 16-0 SU and 11-5 ATS at home this season. In their last 3 home games they have beat Stanford by 15, Oregon by 20 and Oregon State by 12. They have won 5 straight overall and are just 1-game out of 1st place in the Pac-12. UCLA comes into this game off an impressive 77-53 win at home against Colorado as a mere 5-point favorite, which only makes the Bruins look that much more enticing with the line set here. However, UCLA is just 5-8 SU and 4-9 ATS on the road this season. We have seen the Bruins lose by 14 at Oregon and 19 at USC. UCLA is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after winning 2 of their previous 3 games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games off a win. Overall the Bruins are a mere 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games when playing against a team that's won between 60% and 80% of their games. Cal is 10-1 ATS in their last 12 off a SU win and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Lay the points! |
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02-24-16 | Hornets v. Cavs -8 | Top | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Hardwood No Brainer on Cavs - The Cavaliers come into this game off an ugly 88-96 home loss to the Pistons as a 9-point favorite on Tuesday. It wasn't all that surprising to see Cleveland struggle in that game, as they really invested a lot the previous day in a 115-92 win at Oklahoma City. Regardless, it now has the Cavaliers poised for a huge bounce back performance at home against the Hornets. Not only is Cleveland going to be motivated after what took place against Detroit last time out, but they will also be out to make a statement against Charlotte, who defeated them 106-97 earlier this month. Last time the Hornets visited Cleveland, the Cavaliers cruised to a 129-90 blowout win as a 10-point favorite. I look for a very similar type of outcome in this one, as Charlotte is just 10-17 on the road. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are outrebounding opponents by 3+ rebounds/game are 152-101 (60%) ATS in the month of February since 1996. Lay the points! |
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02-24-16 | Villanova v. Xavier -1.5 | Top | 83-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
5* Big East Game of the Month on Xavier - The Musketeers went on the road and were embarrassed 64-95 at Villanova in the conference opener back on 12/31. Needless to say, Xavier has had this game circled on their calendar ever since that defeat. The Musketeers have gone an impressive 12-2 since that loss and come in having won 3 straight by at least 14-points. All 3 of those wins have come against stiff competition. They beat Butler by 17 on the road, Providence by 11 at home and Georgetown by 18 on the road. Villanova is the No. 1 ranked team in the country, which hasn't exactly been a blessing this season. The Wildcats come in having won 7 straight and are 11-2 on the road, but have had some close calls away from home against inferior teams than the Xavier. The Musketeers are 13-1 at home and will be the more motivated team in this one. Favorites is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 games in this series, while Xavier is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 off 3 straight wins by 10 or more points and 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games as a favorite of 6 points or less. That's a perfect 24-0 (100%) system backing the Musketeers. Lay the Points! |
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02-23-16 | Nets v. Blazers UNDER 210.5 | Top | 104-112 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nets/Blazers UNDER The Blazers come into this game having gone OVER the total in 4 straight games and have combined for 142 and 126 in their first two games back from the All-Star break. While the Nets went UNDER the total in their last game, the OVER has cashed in 7 of their last 9. The books have had no choice but to inflate this number, thus creating great value on the UNDER. This is a big letdown spot for Portland after demolishing the Warriors and holding on for a 4-point home win over a surging Utah team. I just don't see the focus being there against a Nets team they are favored against by double-digits. Brooklyn only averages 95.6 ppg on the road and have seen 15 of their 23 road games go UNDER the total. UNDER is 27-10-1 in the Blazers last 38 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 5-1 in their last 6 against the Eastern Conference. UNDER is also 19-8 in the Nets last 27 as a dog of 10 or more and 14-4 in their last 18 road games off a home loss. We'll take the UNDER! |
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02-22-16 | Iowa State +5.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 87-97 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
5* Iowa St/W Virginia Big 12 Game of the Week on Iowa St - Iowa State is showing some great value here as a decently priced road dog against the struggling Mountaineers. West Virginia has lost 2 straight and 3 of their last 4 overall, including an ugly 62-76 home loss to Oklahoma last time out. Iowa State simply isn't getting a lot of respect right now, as they have gone just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. This line is also inflated due to the fact that the Cyclones lost at home 76-81 to the Mountaineers as a 5-point favorite. Prior to that defeat, Iowa State had won each of the previous 3 meetings in the series, including a 74-72 win at West Virginia as a 4.5-point dog in their last trip to Morgantown. Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following a double-digit loss at home, while the Cyclones are 58-38 ATS in their last 96 games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on Monday. Take Iowa State! |
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02-21-16 | Cavs v. Thunder -3 | Top | 115-92 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Thunder NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Thunder - Oklahoma City comes into this game off a heartbreaking 98-101 home loss to the Pacers (I cashed my underdog GOM on Indiana +9 in that game). Now it has the Thunder in a prime bounce back spot at home against the surging Cavaliers, who have won 4 straight. That loss to the Pacers was only the 6th time all season OKC was defeated on their home floor, as they are 25-6. The Thunder are simply not getting the respect they deserve in this game, in large part due to the Cavaliers riding that 4-game winning streak and having won 9 of their last 11 overall. The key thing to keep in mind, is that all but 2 of those wins came at home, where Cleveland is 23-4. Cavaliers are just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 road games after playing their previous game at home and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games after scoring 105+ points in 3 straight games. Thunder are 36-19 ATS in their last 55 off a loss by 3 points or less and 27-8-1 ATS in their last 36 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Oklahoma City! |
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02-20-16 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -6.5 | Top | 63-58 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
5* West Coast Conf Game of the Month on Gonzaga - The Bulldogs are going to be out for revenge from a heartbreaking 67-70 loss at St Mary's earlier this season. Gonzaga managed to lose that game, despite shooting 59% from the field, as they blew a 8-point halftime lead. I look for the Bulldogs to have another strong showing offensively, expect this time they keep their foot on the gas and turn this into a blowout. Gonzaga has gone a strong 11-3 at home this season and will be taking the floor at home for the final time in the regular season. That only adds to the energy and focus for this matchup and I just don't see St Mary's being able to keep pace. Gaels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, 1-9 ATS in their last 10 conference games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 following a SU win. Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games when playing on 1 day of rest. Take Gonzaga! |
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02-19-16 | Pacers +9 v. Thunder | Top | 101-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
5* NBA Underdog of the Month on Pacers + The Pacers are showing exceptional value here as a near double-digit road dog against the Thunder. Indiana went into the All-Star break off an embarrassing 22-point loss at home to the Hornets and I look for them to come out extremely motivated in their first game back. Prior to that loss the Pacers had won 5 of 7. Oklahoma City has gone 14-2 in their last 16 games and I believe that has them way overvalued here. The Thunder could also have a hard time getting up for this contest, being it's the first game after the break and they have a much bigger home game on deck agains the Cavaliers Sunday. Indiana is a dominant 13-4 ATS in their last 17 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 following a double-digit loss at home and 18-8 ATS in their last 27 against a team with a winning record. Thunder are just 10-24 ATS in their last 34 against teams who average 99+ points/game and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall. Take Indiana! |
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02-18-16 | Jazz v. Wizards UNDER 197.5 | Top | 89-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Total Top Play on Jazz/Wizards UNDER Both the Wizards and Jazz are fighting to make the playoffs in their respective conferences and I look for both teams to come out with a lot of energy on the defensive side of the ball after the long layoff with the All-Star break. At the same time, the long layoff will have both offenses struggling to find their rhythm in the first game back. Utah is the key for this one going under the total. The Jazz went into the All-Star break having won 7 of their last 8 and a big reason for that was their defense. Utah has held 8 of their last 10 opponents to 96 or fewer points and no team plays at a slower pace than the Jazz. Washington does allow 105.4 ppg, but are more than capable of slowing down a below-average Utah offense on their home floor. Both meetings last year between these two teams saw fewer than 180 points and 5 of the last 6 in the series have gone below the total posted for this game. Under is 26-12 in Utah's last 38 against terrible defensive teams that allow 103+ ppg and 21-9 in their last 30 against the Eastern Conference. Under is also 7-1 in the Wizards last 8 home games against a team with a losing record. Adding to all of this is a strong system. UNDER is 25-6 (81%) in games with a total of 190 to 199.5 where you have a team that's won 8 or more their last 10 games, who has played 3 or fewer games in the last 10 days. Take the UNDER! |
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02-17-16 | Houston -5.5 v. Tulane | Top | 82-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
5* NCAAB AAC Game of the Month on Houston - The Cougars are showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Green Wave. Houston comes into this contest playing their best basketball of the season, as they have won 5 of their last 6 with the only loss coming on the road against a very good Tulsa team. The reason we are catching a good number with Houston here is due to the fact that Tulane comes in off a huge 94-87 overtime win at home against Memphis as a 7-point dog. As impressive as that win is, the Green Wave are still just 3-10 inside the American and the other two wins have come against the likes of South Florida and East Carolina, who are a combined 5-22 in league play. Houston won 63-45 at home over Tulane earlier this season and didn't play close to their best game, as they shot just 41% from the field and 14.3% from behind the 3-point line. We can expect better shooting this time around and a similar edge on the boards (+18 previous meeting), which should lead to an easy win here. It's also important to note that the fact that Tulane just pulled off the upset helps us here. Not only does it put the Green Wave in a big letdown spot, but it adds some focus that might not have been their for Houston. Tulane is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 conference home games and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points. Cougars are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after playing 2 straight at home and 21-9 ATS in their last 30 off 2 or more home wins. Take Houston! |
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02-16-16 | Creighton v. Butler -6.5 | Top | 75-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big East Game of the Month on Butler - We have already seen this line jump from 4.5 to 6.5, despite the majority of the public action coming in on Creighton. While I would have loved to have the Bulldogs at -4.5, I still like them a lot at the current line. Butler had won 3 straight prior to an embarrassing 57-74 home loss to Xavier in their last game as a 3.5-point favorite. That loss isn't going to sit well with the Bulldogs, but that's not the only motivation angle here, as Butler will be out to revenge a 64-72 loss on the road to the Bluejays. Creighton has won 3 straight, including a 65-62 win at Marquette in their last game, but the Bluejays have been widely inconsistent in Big East play and have had their struggles on the road. While this game is important for both teams, it means a lot more to Butler, who is on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games after failing to cover their last contest and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 off an embarrassing home loss where they scored 60 or fewer points. Take Butler! |
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02-15-16 | Oklahoma State +15 v. Kansas | Top | 67-94 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
5* Oklahoma State/Kansas ESPN Vegas Insider on Oklahoma St + Even with this being a revenge game for Kansas, who lost 67-86 at Oklahoma State, I just don't see them being able to bring that same kind of energy an intensity against a Cowboys team that is sitting one-game ahead of last place TCU at 3-9 in conference play. On the flip side of this, I expect Oklahoma State to come out extremely motivated to show that the first win was no fluke. The Cowboys may be just 3-9 in Big 12 play, but things could be a lot different if they could have closed out some games. Oklahoma State has 5 defeats in conference play by 7-points or less. Given the fact that Kansas is 13-0 at home, riding a 5-game winning streak and playing with revenge, I believe oddsmakers had no choice here but to inflate this line, especially given the small card on Monday. Keep in mind that in the last 10 meetings, only once has Kansas won by more than 12-points and that was by 15 back in 2012 as a 17.5-point favorite. Favorites of 10 to 19.5 points who averaging 76+ ppg and are off 3 or more consecutive unders are just 17-49 (26%) ATS since 1997 against an average offensive team (67-75 ppg) after 15+ games. It's also worth noting that teams in this spot are just 2-8 ATS this season. Take Oklahoma State! |
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02-14-16 | Miami (Fla) v. Florida State | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
5* Miami/Florida St ACC Vegas Insider on Florida State Pick'em This is a game the Seminoles desperately need to win at home if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. Florida State is currently projected as a No. 12 seed, which means they are one of the last at-large teams expected to make the field. A signature win over No. 12 Miami would definitely help their cause. The fact that the Seminoles aren't in the Top 25 and are the favorite at some books, is a great sign that the oddsmakers believe Florida State has the edge. I couldn't agree more. The Seminoles are a strong 8-2 at home and most importantly are a young team that is getting better and better as the season progresses. Miami is a quality team, but they have had some struggles on the road inside conference play. They lost by 11 at Clemson and 16 at NC State, two teams that I think are very comparable to the Seminoles. Hurricanes are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against s team with a wining home record. Seminoles allowed Syracuse to shoot a ridiculous 62% in their last game, but are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 after a game where they allowed a shooting percentage of 55% or higher. They are also a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 on Sunday. Take Florida State! |
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02-13-16 | Texas v. Iowa State -5.5 | Top | 75-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big 12 Game of the Year on Iowa State - The Cyclones have dropped 3 of their last 4, including a heartbreaking 82-85 overtime loss at Texas Tech last time out. It's the second time they have lost 3 of 4 in conference play and the previous time they responded with a 10-point road win at Kansas State. I expect a similar type of an outcome here against the Longhorns. Texas has quietly got a lot better as the season has progressed and it's why they come in having covered 7 straight games. However, this is not a great spot for the Longhorns, as they suffered a crushing defeat at Oklahoma last time out and now have to go into one of the most hostile environments in all of college basketball. Iowa State will also be out for revenge from a 91-94 overtime loss at Texas, plus are going to get a huge boost from the return of Jameel McKay, who missed the last two games due to a suspension. I look for the Cyclones to feed off of McKay's energy and cruise to an easy home win. Cyclones are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games off a conference loss by 3-points or less and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when revenging a straight up loss as a road favorite. Take Iowa State! |
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02-12-16 | Dayton -1.5 v. Rhode Island | Top | 68-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
5* Dayton/Rhode Island A-10 Game of the Week on Dayton - I have no problem backing the Flyers at basically a pick'em on the road against Rhode Island. The fact that the Rams come into this game off back-to-back wins and have a respectable 9-3 record at home, is creating the value with Dayton. While Rhode Island is 5-1 at home in conference play, all 5 wins have come against teams who have a losing record inside conference play. Their lone loss at home came against St. Joseph's, who is tied for 2nd in the A-10 with VCU at 9-2, 1-game back of Dayton at 10-1. Not only has their home wins in the conference been weak, but the Rams 4 non-conference home wins came against the likes of American, Holy Cross, Houston and Iona. Dayton is a legit NCAA Tournament team and right now are looking at being a No. 4 seed. You could argue that this is a look-ahead spot for the Flyers with a road game against St Joseph's on deck, but that just makes this game more important. If Dayton were to lose here, they could potentially go from 1st to 3rd in the A-10 standings. Rhode Island is 0-7 ATS this season in games with a line of +3 to -3 and are just 17-33 ATS in their last 50 home games after 15+ games against teams who are outscoring opponents by 4+ ppg. The Flyers on the other hand are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games against strong defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Dayton! |
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02-11-16 | Wizards v. Bucks -1 | Top | 92-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
5* Wizards/Bucks NBA Vegas Insider on Bucks - Milwaukee comes into the final game before the All-Star break having gone just 2-7 in their last 9 games, but that has a lot to do with the schedule. Of the 7 losses, 6 came on the road, where the Bucks are just 7-24 on the season. Milwaukee defeated the Celtics 112-111 at home in their last game as a 4-point dog and are 5-1 in their last 6 home games overall with wins over Dallas, Chicago, Atlanta, Orlando and Boston. The Wizards come in off a 111-108 win at New York, but are just 4-8 in their last 12. Washington has been especially bad on the defensive side of things of late, as they are allowing 111.6 ppg over their last 5. I don't see the defensive intensity getting turned up for a road game against the Bucks with the long layoff for the All-Star break on deck. Washington is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 off a win by 3 points or less and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 off a road win scoring 110 or more points. The Bucks on the other hand are a dominant 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games after losing at least 4 of their last 6 and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against the Eastern Conference. Take Milwaukee! |
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02-10-16 | Iowa State -2.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 82-85 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big 12 Game of the Month on Iowa State - Due to the fact that Iowa State won't have suspended center Jameel McKay, I believe we are seeing exceptional value on the Cyclones as a small road favorite against the Red Raiders. Iowa State went on the road and beat Oklahoma State 64-59 without McKay and Stillwater is no easy place to win. If the Cyclones want to keep their hopes of a Big 12 regular season title alive, this is a game they simply can't afford to lose. Texas Tech is definitely a team they can beat without McKay, as the Red Raiders are just 2-8 over their last 10 with the only wins during this stretch coming against TCU and at home against Oklahoma State by a mere 2-points. Cyclones are 8-1 ATS over the last 2 seasons in games with a line of +3 to -3 and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning home record. Texas Tech is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a SU loss, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a dog and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Iowa State! |
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02-09-16 | Spurs v. Heat UNDER 193 | Top | 119-101 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit TNT Total Top Play on Spurs/Heat UNDER The books have set the mark too high for this TNT showdown between the Heat and Spurs. These are two of the top defensive teams in the NBA. Miami comes in allowing just 95.3 ppg and rank 6th in defensive efficiency. The Spurs are giving up just 92.8 ppg and lead the league in defensive efficiency. San Antonio has held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 97 or less points, while the Heat have score 98 or fewer in each of their last 3. The fact that this game is being played in Miami is key, as that should allow the Heat to control the tempo and only the Jazz play at a slower pace than the Heat. Both meetings last year saw fewer than 184 points and each of the last 4 in the series have finished with 193 or less. UNDER is 21-9 in the Spurs last 30 road games after going over the total in their previous game and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 off a home win where they failed to cover as a favorite. UNDER is also 14-4 in Miami's 18 games this season when listed as an underdog and 7-0 in their last 7 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER! |
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02-08-16 | Bulls +6 v. Hornets | Top | 91-108 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
5* Bulls/Hornets NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bulls + Chicago comes into this game having lost 2 straight and 4 of their last 5 overall, plus are not expected to have the services of All-Star Jimmy Butler. I believe oddsmakers have drastically inflated this line because of this and thus the Bulls are showing some great value here against the Hornets. Keep in mind that Chicago was a 3.5-point favorite earlier this season at Charlotte. As good as Butler is, he's not worth 9.5-points. Whenever a team is missing a key player like the Bulls will be tonight, that takes away from the focus and intensity of the other team. I just don't see the Hornets being as focused for this game as you would expect and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Chicago won this game outright. Road teams that have allowed 100+ points in 4 straight games against an opponent off a win by 6 or less are 49-30 (62%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. At the same time, Favorites off a win by 6 or less against an opponent off 3 straight games with a combined score of 205 or more points are just 22-50 (31%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Chicago! |
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02-06-16 | Vanderbilt -3 v. Ole Miss | Top | 78-85 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
5* NCAAB SEC Game of the Month on Vanderbilt - The Commodores come into this game off their best game in quite some time, as they rolled No. 8 Texas A&M 77-60 at home on Thursday. That's the kind of win that can really light a fire under a team and I look for Vanderbilt to ride that momentum with another big time performance on the road against Ole Miss. The key here is that even with the win, the Commodores are still showing value due to their poor play against the spread prior to the victory. Even with the cover against the Aggies, Vanderbilt is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10. Ole Miss comes in off a road win over Missouri and have covered 3 of their last 4, which is also helping this line. While the Commodores are just 3-7 on the road this season, that's more of a result of the talent they have had to play away from home. Vanderbilt's 7 road losses have come against Kansas, Baylor, Purdue, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kentucky and Texas. The Rebels are simply not in that class of talent and while they are 8-2 at home, they haven't beat anyone at home as good as Vanderbilt and have lost 2 of their last 3 with defeats to Florida and South Carolina. Commodores are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games after winning 2 of their last 3 games, while the Rebels are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games off a win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games off a win by 6 points or less. Take Vanderbilt! |
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02-05-16 | Celtics v. Cavs -7 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Cavs - This may seem like a big number for Cleveland to be laying against a Celtics team that has won 7 of their last 8, but I don't see Boston being able to contain the Cavaliers in this one. The Celtics recent surge has primarily come against bad teams, as 6 of the 7 wins came against the 76ers, Wizards, Nuggets, Magic, Knicks and Pistons. Cleveland isn't going to take this game lightly after an embarrassing 97-106 loss at Charlotte with the Hornets playing without Kemba Walker. Returning home should do the trick for the Cavs, where they are a dominant 19-3 at home this season and off a 14-point win against the Spurs in their last home game. Cleveland also won by 12 at Boston earlier this season. Celtics are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Cavaliers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 against team with a winning record and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games after a contest where they were out rebounded by 20 or more. Take Cleveland! |
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02-04-16 | UCLA v. USC -5.5 | Top | 61-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
5* UCLA/USC Pac-12 Vegas Insider Top Play on USC - The Trojans went on the road and dominated UCLA 89-75 back on 1/13 and I look for USC to have no problem winning and covering at home in the rematch. One win over the Bruins isn't going to satisfy the Trojans in this rivalry, as UCLA had won each of the 6 previous meetings. This time around it's USC that's the better team. Just playing at home is enough to back the Trojans in this spot. USC is a perfect 13-0 at home, outscoring opponents by 17.6 ppg. They have only played 4 conference home games to this point and 3 of those have come by double-digits. The only exception being an overtime win against a really good Arizona team. UCLA on the other hand is just 4-6 on the road with a 1-3 record away from home in the Pac-12. The only win coming against Oregon State, who is just 3-6 in league play. UCLA is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games against a team that's won between 60% and 80% of their games over the last 2 seasons. The Bruins are also 0-8 ATS in their last 8 against up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 against teams averaging 84 or more points/game. Trojans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning record, 11-1 ATS in their last 12 after playing a game at home and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a home win by 10 or more. Take USC! |
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02-03-16 | Notre Dame v. Miami (Fla) -5 | Top | 70-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
5* ACC Game of the Month on Miami - We are seeing great value here on the Hurricanes off an ugly 69-85 loss at NC State last time out. Not only is that loss playing into this favorable line, but the fact that Notre Dame is off a 23-point win over Wake Forest and have won 5 of their last 6 is creating value. I wasn't all that surprised to see the Hurricanes struggle on the road against the Wolfpack, as they were coming off a huge 80-69 win at home against Duke in the previous game. That loss will have Miami re-focused for a big showdown against the Fighting Irish at home, where they are 10-1 on the season and a perfect 4-0 inside ACC play. It's also worth noting that all 4 home wins in conference play have come by double-digits. Notre Dame won at Duke not that long ago, but they have also lost by 11 at Virginia and 15 at Syracuse and are just 4-5 away from home overall. The Irish are just 5-18 ATS in their last 23 off a conference win by 20 or more points and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. The Hurricanes are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons why they come in having failed to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7. Take Miami! |
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02-02-16 | Indiana v. Michigan -1.5 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Top Play on Michigan - The Wolverines are showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite against the Hoosiers. Indiana comes into this game tied with Iowa a top the Big 10 standings at 8-1, but a lot of that has to do with a soft schedule to start out conference play. Indiana just recently lost at Wisconsin and were nearly upset at home against Minnesota in their last game. The Hoosiers are simply overvalued right now and should be a bigger dog than we see here against a Michigan team that is playing some of it's best basketball of the season. The Wolverines have won 4 straight and are a quiet 7-2 in league play with their only 2 losses coming on the road against Iowa and Purdue. This is a team that beat Maryland at home and comes into this game 11-1 on their home floor this season. This is a statement game for the Wolverines and I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up running away with this game. Indiana is just 0-6 ATS on the road over the last 2 seasons after playing 4 straight games as a favorite, while the Wolverines are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games after 15+ games against a top caliber team, who is outscoring opponents by 12+ ppg. Take Michigan! |
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02-01-16 | Mavs v. Hawks UNDER 198.5 | Top | 97-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
5* Mavs/Hawks NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on UNDER I'm expecting a very slow pace and strong defensive intensity from both teams in this one. Dallas isn't going to be looking to run, as they will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 5th in the last 7 days overall. However, the Mavericks do figure to come to play, as they will be out for revenge from a 95-98 loss at home earlier this season. Atlanta will also be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set after playing yesterday in Miami. This will also be the Hawks 4th game in 6 days. Atlanta has lost 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall, so we have every reason to expect them to show up with a lot of intensity defensively to get a win. Note that during this 6-game stretch only 1 of those came at home and that was an extremely low-scoring game against the Clippers (83-85). It's also important to note that both offenses come in struggling right now. The Mavericks have scored 92 or fewer in 3 of their last 4, while the Hawks have scored 95 or fewer in 5 of their last 6. Dallas has held each of their last 2 opponents under 80 points and Atlanta has allowed 86 or less in each of their last 3 home games. UNDER is 25-14 in the Mavericks last 29 after 2 or more consecutive games that finished under the total, 5-1 in their last 6 when their starters combine for 160 or more minutes the previous day and 8-2 in their last 10 road games. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Hawks last 5 against the Western Conference, 8-3 in their last 11 against a team with a winning record and 23-9 in their last 32 home games off 2 straight road losses by 10 or more points. Take the UNDER! |
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01-31-16 | Oregon v. Arizona State +2 | Top | 91-74 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
5* Oregon/Arizona St NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Arizona St + The Sun Devils are showing some great value here as a home dog against the Ducks. Arizona State is a far better team than their 2-6 record inside the Pac-12 would indicate. The Suns Devils all 6 losses have come by 12-points or less and 4 of those by 7 or fewer. Arizona State snapped a 3-game losing streak with a 86-68 win at home over Oregon State on Thursday and I look for them to carry over that momentum with a big win at home against Oregon. The Ducks come in having won 3-straight, but are in prime position for a letdown after a huge 83-75 win at Arizona as a 7-point dog. Prior to that Oregon knocked off two other top Pac-12 teams in USC and UCLA at home. Even with the win over the Wildcats, the Ducks are just 4-4 on the road, while Arizona State is a strong 9-3 at home. Last time here the Ducks needed overtime to escape with a 68-67 win which was only their 2nd road win in the series since 2010. It's also worth noting the Sun Devils have a history of playing Oregon tough, as each of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 7 or less with the only game decided by more than 3 coming at Oregon. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 off a win by 15 or more against an opponent that has scored 75 or more in 3 straight games are 26-9 (74%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Arizona State! |
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01-30-16 | Ole Miss v. Kansas State -7 | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Non-Conference Game of the Month on Kansas St - I really like the value here with the Wildcats at home in a game they desperately need to have. Kansas State has got off to a disappointing 2-6 start in Big 12 play, but this is a much better team than their record would indicate. They are going to be extremely motivated off an ugly 55-70 loss at West Virginia, which they shot just 35% from the field, including a dreadful 5.6% (1 for 18) from long-distance. Prior that loss the Wildcats destroyed Oklahoma State at home 89-73 and I'm expecting a similar type of outcome here. Ole Miss comes into this game off a 80-63 blowout win at home against Auburn, but that's nothing to get excited about. The Rebels had lost their previous 4 games, including a 9-point loss at LSU and 6-point defeat at Mississippi State. Ole Miss opened up 10-2 in non-conference play but didn't play anyone. Their best win was against UMass at home and they lost to both George Mason and Seton Hall. A huge factor here and why I'm confident laying this number is the Rebels will be missing a huge piece in junior forward sebastian Saiz, who is the only player outside of Stefan Moody that's averaging double figures (12.8 ppg) and is by far the team's leading rebounder (9.8 rpg). Not only his absence big offensively, but it hurts them defensively. Kansas State is 23-12 ATS at home over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of nearly 10.0 ppg. The Wildcats are also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 when playing on their 2nd game in a 7-day stretch, 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss. Take Kansas State! |
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01-29-16 | Rockets v. Thunder UNDER 222 | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
5* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Rockets/Thunder UNDER Due to this matchup featuring two of the more explosive offensive teams and this game being televised on NBATV, I believe we are seeing a drastically inflated total. Oklahoma City is coming off two high-scoring games against the Knicks (128-122) and Timberwolves (126-123), both of which came on the road. Not a huge surprise to see the Thunder not bring the defensive intensity against below average opponents. They won't have any problem getting motivated against the Rockets on their home floor, as they have lost each of the last 5 meetings in the series. One thing to keep in mind with Oklahoma City is they play much better defensively at home, where they are only giving up 98.0 ppg. I'm also expecting a strong defensive effort here from the Rockets, as they are going to be motivated coming off an embarrassing 99-130 loss at San Antonio. The UNDER is 7-3 in the Rockets last 10 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 9-3 in their last 12 against a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 15-3 in the Thunder's last 18 home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, 9-1 in their last 10 home games after playing their last game as a road favorite and 9-1 in their last 10 home games off a road win where they scored 110 or more points. Take the UNDER! |
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01-28-16 | Hawks v. Pacers -3 | Top | 92-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
5* Hawks/Pacers NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Pacers - While the Pacers come into this game having lost 3 straight and 6 of their last 7 overall, this team showed signs of turning the corner with Tuesday's heartbreaking 89-91 home loss to the Clippers. I believe we are seeing Indiana greatly undervalued here because of their recent poor stretch. Atlanta is also coming off a crushing loss at home to the Clippers, as they lost 83-85 last night to LA. Having to play on no rest is going to be a tall task for the Hawks to overcome against a highly motivated Pacers team. Keep in mind that Atlanta only had 1-day off prior to their game against the Clippers, which followed a 4-game west coast road trip. It's also important to note that the Pacers already won 93-87 at home against Atlanta this season and despite losing their last 2 at home are a strong 13-7 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Indiana also seems to play their best against the best, as the Pacers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games against a team with a winning record. They are also 19-9 ATS in their last 28 as a home favorite of 6 or less and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 when playing only their 2nd game in a span of 5 days. Take Indiana! |
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01-27-16 | Georgia Tech +3.5 v. NC State | Top | 90-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
5* NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Georgia Tech + The Yellow Jackets come into this game with a mere 1-5 record inside league play, but could very easily be sitting near the top of the standings. All 5 of Georgia Tech's conference losses have come by 8-points or less and that includes road games at North Carolina, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame. They also come in off a heartbreaking 71-75 home loss to Louisville. This team has proven itself against the top teams and I look for them to take advantage of a soft spot in their schedule here against NC State. The Wolfpack have also suffered some close losses, but they have come against weaker competition. The big key here is that we are catching NC State in a prime letdown spot off a huge home showdown against Duke and potentially without their best player in Anthony Barber, who averages 22.1 ppg. Barber is questionable with a knee injury and even if he does play I don't expect him to be his normal self. That's a big problem for the Wolfpack, as they desperately need him to be a major factor offensively to have any chance. If he doesn't end up playing, this game could turn into a blowout quickly. Yellow Jackets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss, 14-5 ATS in their last 19 off 2 or more consecutive losses, 12-2 ATS in their last 14 when they have lost 4 of their last 5 and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers. NC State on the other hand is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take Georgia Tech! |
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01-26-16 | Indiana v. Wisconsin +2 | Top | 79-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Wisconsin + The Badgers are showing great value here as a home dog against the Hoosiers. Indiana comes into this game riding a 12-game winning streak, which includes a perfect 7-0 start in Big Ten play. What gets overlooked with the Hoosiers strong start is they have played a very favorable conference schedule to this point. They have not played a single game against Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue or Michigan. They did face Wisconsin earlier this season, but only won 59-58 as a 7.5-point home favorite. I believe the winning streak comes to an end tonight. The Badgers come in off back-to-back impressive wins, defeating Michigan State at home and Penn State on the road. They are just 3-4 in league play, but all 4 losses have come by 6-points or less. Wisconsin is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 when revenging a loss of 3-points or less and 31-13 ATS in their last 44 home games against teams shooting 48% or better from the field. Indiana on the other hand is 2-15 ATS in their last 17 road games off a blowout win by 30 or more points and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a conference win by more than 10 points. Take Wisconsin! |
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01-25-16 | Hawks -5 v. Nuggets | Top | 119-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Hawks - This is a great spot to jump on Atlanta and fade the Nuggets. Denver is getting a lot of love from the books due to covering the spread in each of their last 4 games and 6 of their last 7 overall, but will be outclassed against the Hawks. Atlanta will be all business after an embarrassing 95-98 loss at Phoenix as a 10-point favorite, which followed a 88-91 defeat at Sacramento. The Hawks haven't lost 3 straight since the middle of December and I don't see that streak coming to an end here. The Nuggets come into this game off a 104-101 win at home against the Pistons, which they were fortunate to win after trailing by 9 at the half. Fading teams in this spot has been a profitable move over the years, as home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a close home win by 3 or less are just 12-37 (24%) ATS in non-conference games since 1996. The Hawks have also been a strong team to back when coming off a game where they lost outright as a favorite. They are 19-9 ATS in this spot over the last 2 seasons and have won these games by an average of 7.4 ppg. It's also worth noting that the Nuggets are just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 home games after allowing 100 or more points in 2 straight games. Take Atlanta! |
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01-23-16 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State -6 | Top | 73-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big 12 Game of the Year on Kansas St - The Wildcats are showing some great value here even as a 6-point home favorite. After going 10-2 in non-conference play, Kansas State has opened a disappointing 1-5 inside the Big 12, but the big key here is they could just as easily have a winning conference record. They lost in overtime at home to West Virginia and on the road in their last game against Baylor. They also lost by just 3-points at Texas. The other two defeats came against Iowa State and Oklahoma, so there's plenty of reason to expect the Wildcats to bounce back in a big way at home against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State is a huge letdown spot after their shocking home win against Kansas last time out and it's important to note that their only other win inside conference play is a home game against TCU. They played Oklahoma tough at home, but have not looked good in their 3 road games, which include blowout losses to both Baylor (62-79) and West Virginia (60-77). Two teams Kansas State easily could have beat. Last year the Wildcats won 63-53 at home and took control early with a 31-21 halftime lead. I think it's going to be an even bigger blowout this time around. Wildcats are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 as a home favorite of 6 or less, while Oklahoma State is just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 conference road games and 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games at least 15 games into the season when facing a team with a winning record. Take Kansas State! |
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01-22-16 | Bulls +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 101-110 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
5* Bulls/Celtics NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bulls + Chicago is coming off one of their most embarrassing losses of the season, as they lost 94-125 at home to the Warriors in Wednesday's nationally televised game on ESPN. That loss isn't going to sit well with the Bulls and I look for them to come out inspired against the Celtics tonight. Chicago has responded well in this spot of late, as they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following a double-digit loss at home. Hard to not like their chances given how poorly the Celtics have been playing. Boston is just 4-8 in their last 12 games and two of those wins have come against two of the worst teams in the league right now in the Nets and Suns. Boston did win at home earlier this season, but are just 2-7 in their last 9 games in the series against the Bulls. A big reason Boston is struggling right now is there defense, as they come in allowing a staggering 109.4 ppg over their last 5 contests. Last time out they gave up 115 to the Raptors. That's important to note, as the Celtics are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games after allowing 110 or more points in their previous game. Adding to all of this is a strong system in favor of the Bulls. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who trailed in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games are 25-6 (81%) ATS since 1996. Take Chicago! |
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01-21-16 | Arizona State v. California -5.5 | Top | 70-75 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
5* NCAAB No Limit Game of the Month on Cal - The Golden Bears are showing great value here at home against Arizona State. California is prime for a dominant performance on their home floor tonight. The Golden Bears come into this contest off 3 straight conference losses on the road, but it's important to note that they could have won all 3, as all 3 losses came by 6-points or less. Prior to losing 3 straight on the road, Cal was impressive in blowout home wins over Colorado (79-65) and Utah (71-58). Needless to say given their 3-game slide, Cal is going to come out as motivated and focused as they have all season. That should be more than enough to win and cover this spread, as the Golden Bears have a great home court advantage. Cal is a perfect 11-0 at home. Arizona State has dropped 3 of their last 4 true road games and are just 1-4 to start out Pac-12 play. Sun Devils enter off a 85-89 home loss to Washington and that's important to note. Arizona State is just 11-27 ATS in their last 38 road games off a home loss, 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games after a home game where both teams scored 75 or more and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games after a combined score of 155 or more in their last game. Adding to this is a strong system. Home favorites off 2 or more consecutive losses as a road favorite are 90-42 (68%) ATS since 1997 and are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season. Take California! |
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01-20-16 | Hawks v. Blazers +2 | Top | 104-98 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
5* Hawks/Blazer ESPN ATS Vegas Insider on Blazers + The books are begging you to take the Hawks as a small road favorite against the Blazers in a prime time matchup on ESPN, which only strengthens how much I like Portland in this spot. The Blazers come into this game playing well. They have won 4 of their last 5, which includes two impressive home wins over the Thunder (115-10) and Jazz (99-85). Atlanta is simply getting a lot of love here due to back-to-back blowout wins at home against the Nets (114-86) and Magic (98-81). Two teams that aren't very good and not playing well at the moment. The key thing here is the Hawks have not played well on the road of late. They lost back-to-back games at Charlotte (84-107) and Milwaukee (101-108) and have dropped 4 of their last 6 away from home with one of the wins coming against the 76ers. These two teams played in Atlanta back on 12/21, which the Hawks won by a final of 106-97. That may appear as positive for Atlanta, but Portland is a completely different team on the road and were without their top two scorers in Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. It's also worth noting that the Blazers went just 5 of 24 from the 3-point line and as a team rank 3rd in the league with 10.3 3-pointers made per game. Hawks are a mere 4-16 ATS in their last 20 road games in the 2nd half of the season against up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots/game and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games against a marginal winning team (40% to 49%). Blazers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 off an upset win as a road dog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference. Take Portland! |
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01-19-16 | Northwestern +13 v. Maryland | Top | 56-62 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
5* Big Ten Game of the Month on Northwestern + Northwestern is showing tremendous value here as a massive road dog against the Terrapins. I believe we are seeing a drastically inflated line based on the recent results of both teams. The Wildcats just got embarrassed at home 62-71 as a 9-point favorite against Penn State, while Maryland rolled Ohio State 100-65 as a 10.5-point home favorite. Losing to the Nittany Lions at home isn't going to help the Wildcats cause of making their first NCAA Tournament, but this is without a doubt one of the best teams Northwestern has ever had. I look for Northwestern to be the much more motivated team in this one. Not only because of what happened in each teams' last game, but they are going to want revenge from a 59-72 loss at home to Maryland back on 1/2. Coming off that big win over the Buckeyes, having already beat Northwestern and an even bigger game on deck at Michigan State, I don't see the Terrapins coming out with the kind of intensity to turn this into a blowout. It's also important to note that Northwestern has played some of their best basketball on the road. The Wildcats are 5-1 away from home with a perfect 4-0 record in true road games. Their only defeat away from home is a 11-point defeat to North Carolina on a neutral court. Maryland is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 as a home favorite of 12.5 or more and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games after a contest where they shot 55% or better from the field. Wildcats are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 when revenging a loss by 10 or more points. Take Northwestern! |
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01-18-16 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State -2 | Top | 77-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
5* Oklahoma/Iowa St NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Iowa St - The Cyclones are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Sooners. Iowa State got off to a surprisingly poor start in conference play, losing 3 of their first 4, including a rare home loss to Baylor. They responded in a big way on Saturday in a must-win situation, going on the road and knocking off Kansas State 76-63. I look for the Cyclones to carry over that momentum and hand the Sooners their second loss of the season. Keep in mind these two teams played in Oklahoma back on 1/2 and the Sooners barely escaped with a 87-83 win as a 6.5-point favorite. Playing with revenge and one of the best home court advantages in the country, Iowa State should be a bigger favorite than what they are. The Cyclones are 72-6 at home since February of 2011. Keep in mind they lost 83-94 at Oklahoma last year and then returned home in the rematch and defeated the Sooners 77-70 as a 6-point favorite. Cyclones are 24-4 ATS in their last 28 as a home favorite of 3 points or less, while Oklahoma is a mere 8-17 ATS in their last 25 when they come in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning record. Take Iowa State! |
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01-16-16 | Villanova v. Georgetown +7 | Top | 55-50 | Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgetown + I believe we are getting exceptional value here on the Hoyas as a decently priced home dog against No. 6 Villanova. The Wildcats are certainly overvalued here being ranked inside the Top 10 and riding a 6 game winning streak that just saw them knock off Marquette at home 83-68. The key thing to keep in mind with Villanova's latest run, is they have only played 2 games on the road during this stretch. While they beat Creighton 85-71, that's not a great Bluejays team. The other road game was much closer, as they barely edged out a 60-55 win at Butler. If Villanova is vulnerable, it's definitely on the road. Georgetown enters this game having won 5 of their last 6, with 4 of the 5 wins coming inside conference play. The Hoyas lone loss came at Creighton, but that's not a big surprise. This team has consistently played up or down to their competition. Georgetown has wins over the likes of Wisconsin and Syracuse and lost by just 4-points on the road at Maryland and 2-points on a neutral court against Duke. Villanova has won 20 straight against conference opponents, but keep in mind the last time they lost came on this same floor nearly a year ago, as the Hoyas demolished Villanova 78-58 on Jan. 19 of last year. Given how big of a rivalry this is and how well Georgetown has played against elite competition this year, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Hoyas won this game outright. Hoyas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games in excellent teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field on offense and holding opponents to 42% or worse. Take Georgetown! |
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01-15-16 | Hawks -3.5 v. Bucks | Top | 101-108 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
5* Hawks/Bucks NBA ATS Vegas Insider on Hawks - Atlanta comes into this game off an embarrassing 84-107 loss at Charlotte on Wednesday, which followed one of their best efforts of the season in a 120-105 win against the Bulls last Saturday. With home games against the Nets and Magic on deck, we should get a max effort here from the Hawks as they will be extremely motivated to make a statement after how poorly they played against the Hornets. I look for them to have no problem getting a win here against the Bucks, who are just 6-10 in their last 16 games. While Milwaukee had yesterday off, this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights, as well as their 4th in the last 6 days. Atlanta on the other hand is well-rested, as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days. It's also important to note that the Hawks have owned the Bucks of late. Atlanta is 13-2 against Milwaukee over the last 15 meetings and have won 6 straight at the Bradley Center, going a perfect 6-0 ATS in the process. The Hawks are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 road games with a total 200 to 209.5 and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 off an upset loss as a favorite. WE also find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Bucks. Teams off a road cover where they lost outright as an underdog against an opponent off a loss by 10 or more as a road favorite are 14-44 (24%) ATS since 1996. Take Atlanta! |
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01-14-16 | Cavs v. Spurs UNDER 196 | Top | 95-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Spurs NBA No Limit Top Play on UNDER Two of the NBA's best will square off tonight in a prime time showdown on TNT. Cleveland comes into this game having won 8 straight and 14 of their last 16 overall. San Antonio has won 9 straight and 16 of their last 17 overall. This is a statement game for both teams and I expect to see near playoff intensity in this one. I believe it's going to lead to a defensive battle and a much lower-scoring game than most would expect. It reminds me a lot of the Christmas Day matchup between the the Cavs and Warriors. Cleveland lost that game at Golden State 83-89 for a combined total of 172 points. Well below the posted total for the game of 207.5. San Antonio is even a better defensive team than than the Warriors. The Spurs are allowing 93.5 points per 100 possessions which is the best mark in more than a decade. Cleveland ranks 5th in defensive efficiency, allowing just 99.4 points per 100 possessions. UNDER is 31-17 in the Cavaliers last 48 games against high-scoring teams averaging 103+ points/game 19-9 in their last 28 as a dog and 5-1 in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take the UNDER! |
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01-13-16 | Oregon State v. Colorado -4.5 | Top | 54-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
5* PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado - Colorado comes in this game having lost 3 of their last 4, including 2 of their first 3 conference games. Oregon State on the other hand has won 5 of their last 6 and are 2-1 in the Pac-12 with wins over Oregon and Cal. The key thing to keep in mind with the Beavers and their strong start to conference play, is they have played all 3 conference games at home. Oregon State hasn't played a true road games since the middle of November and their two road games haven't exactly been challenging against Rice and UC-Santa Barbara. Either way it's created some exceptional value here on Colorado who is 8-1 at home with the only loss being a 2-point defeat to Utah in their last game. Needless to say the Buffaloes are going to come out extremely motivated to avoid a 1-3 start to league play. Last year the Buffaloes won 64-58 at home against Oregon State and are 4-1 at home in the last 5 meetings against the Beavers. Oregon State is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. It's also worth noting that they were just 1-9 ATS in conference road games last year, losing by an average of 13.1 ppg. Take Colorado! |
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01-12-16 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia -4 | Top | 58-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
5* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia - The Cavaliers are showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite. Virginia is a perfect 7-0 at home this season, extending their home winning streak to 13. They have also won 33 of their last 34 at John Paul Jones Arena. While the Hurricanes enter having won 8 straight and are 13-1 overall, their only true road game this season was against Nebraska, which they only won by 5 points. Keep in mind Nebraska is a bottom feeder in the Big 10. Adding even more incentive to this game for Virginia is the fact that they come in off back-to-back losses at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. The Cavaliers were favored in both of those games and are a dominant 17-6 ATS in their last 23 home games off an upset loss as a favorite, winning by an average of 13.9 ppg. We also find a strong system backing the Cavaliers based on their resent road defeats. Home favorites off 2 or more upset losses as a road favorite are 87-42 (67%) ATS since 1997. Take Virginia! |
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01-08-16 | Mavs v. Bucks +1 | Top | 95-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
5* Mavs/Bucks NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bucks + I really like the value we are getting with the Bucks at basically a pick'em at home against the Mavericks. Dallas will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and second straight on the road. I look for them to come out sluggish against Milwaukee. The Mavericks followed up a double-overtime game against the Kings on Tuesday with a hard fought 100-91 win at New Orleans and I just don't see the energy being there in this one. Milwaukee on the other hand is going to come out motivated to get a win after a couple of ugly losses to the Spurs (98-123) and Bulls (106-117) in their last 2 games. The Bucks will also be out for revenge from a 93-103 loss at Dallas on 12/28. Bucks are 35-19 ATS in their last 54 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after 2 or more consecutive losses. Dallas on the other hand is just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games against a team with a winning home record and 6-13 ATS in their last 19 against the Eastern Conference. Take Milwaukee! |
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01-07-16 | Cincinnati +7 v. SMU | Top | 57-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
5* Cincinnati/SMU NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Cincinnati + The Mustangs come into this game with a perfect 13-0 record and are overvalued because of it. SMU recently lost a key piece of their team, as guard Keith Frazier left the team prior to Saturday's game against South Florida. While the Mustangs won the game 72-58, they came no where close to covering the spread as a 25-point favorite. I think Frazier's departure is not only going to hurt them on the floor, but also have a negative impact mentally on this team. Even if he was still with the team, this is a lot of points to be giving a talented Cincinnati team. The Bearcats come in at 11-4, but have 3 losses by 7 points or less, including 2 by just 2-points to the likes of Butler and Iowa State. Cincinnati has all 5 starters back from last year's team that won both meetings against the Mustangs. The Bearcats won 56-50 at home as a 1-point dog and 62-54 at SMU as a 6.5-point dog. Needless to say, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Cincinnati won this game outright. SMU is just 12-28 ATS in their last 40 home games against strong offensive teams that are scoring 77+ points/game and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. Bearcats are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games after playing 3 straight at home and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games overall. Take Cincinnati! |
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01-06-16 | Mavs v. Pelicans -5.5 | Top | 100-91 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
5* NBA Southwest Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Pelicans - The perception here is that the Mavericks will be out for revenge from a 98-105 home loss to the Pelicans on Saturday, but the reality is that Dallas likely won't have anything left in the tank for this matchup. The Mavericks just played a grueling double-overtime game against the Kings last night, which saw the two teams combined for 233 points. Not only is Dallas in a horrible back-to-back spot on the road, but this is also their 4th game in the last 6 days. New Orleans on the other hand is playing on 3 days rest and this will be just their 2nd game in the last 6 days. Having just beat the Mavericks isn't going to have the Pelicans coming into this game over-confident, which is normally where the revenge angle comes into play. New Orleans can't afford to take any games off, as they have the 3rd worst record in the Western Conference. Dallas is just 23-35 ATS in their last 58 after playing a game where both teams combined for 205 or more points, while the Pelicans are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference. Take New Orleans! |
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01-05-16 | South Carolina -6 v. Auburn | Top | 81-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
5* SEC Game of the Month on South Carolina - South Carolina has quietly put together a perfect 13-0 start to the 2015-16 season and I look for them to be extremely motivated when they take the floor for their SEC opener tonight against Auburn. Keep in mind that the Gamecocks went 9-3 in non-conference play last year and ended up starting out just 1-6 in SEC play, so there's no concern here for me with South Carolina coming in too confident. Another huge factor here, is Auburn is missing some key players with injuries. The Tigers will be without 3rd leading scorer T.J. Dunans and could also be without the services of T.J. Lang, who is questionable with a concussion. Dunans is a big loss, as he's one of Auburn's best all-around players, as he averages 12.4 ppg to go with 1.5 steals and 1.3 blocks. It's also worth nothing the Tigers have struggled against quality teams this year. All 5 losses have come by 7 or more, including recent defeats by 18 to Harvard and 12 to Hawaii. Gamecocks are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 road games after playing 2 straight games as a home favorite and 6-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons off 3 straight wins by 10 or more points, winning these by an average of 17.4 ppg. Gamecocks are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers/game and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 versus teams who average 77+ points/game. Take South Carolina! |
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01-04-16 | Celtics -7 v. Nets | Top | 103-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
5* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month on Celtics - The Celtics will be out for revenge against the Nets, as they just lost at home to Brooklyn 97-100 in their last game. This came on the heels of an ugly 104-112 home loss to the Lakers. Needless to say we can expect a max effort here from Boston in this spot. The same can't be said for the Nets, who also find themselves in a tough spot playing their first game without starting point guard Jarrett Jack, who was lost for the season with a torn ACL in the win over Boston. Brooklyn hasn't won consecutive games in almost a month (12/8 and 12/10) and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Boston on the other hand is a team that has thrived on the road. The Celtics are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games. They are also 16-4 ATS in their last 20 road games when playing with double-revenge and 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games after allowing 100 or more points in 2 straight games. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are outscoring opponents on average by 3+ points/game are 48-19 (72%) ATS since 1996 after allowing 55 or more points in the 1st half of 2 straight games. Take Boston! |
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12-30-15 | Georgetown -3 v. DePaul | Top | 70-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
5* Big East Game of the Month on Georgetown - We are getting some great value here with the Hoyas as a mere 3-point road favorite against DePaul, as Georgetown is 13-1 against the Blue Demons in the last 14 meetings. The big reason for the low spread here, is this matchup comes on the heels of the Hoyas failing to cover 4 straight games, while DePaul enters off an impressive 82-61 win over George Washington as a 6-point dog. The thing to keep in mind with the Blue Demons most recent win, is this is a team that had previously lost 3 straight, including home losses to Arkansas-Little Rock by 22 points and Northwestern by 8 points. DePaul simply caught fire against George Washington, shooting 55.4% from the field. That sets them up in a great spot to fade, as the Blue Demons are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games after a game where they shot 55% or better from the field. Georgetown has had some problems with inconsistency this season, but their struggles have come against lesser teams. The Hoyas went on the road and only lost by 4-points to Maryland and lost a heartbreaker by 2-points against Duke on a neutral court. They also have a 71-61 win over Wisconsin and 79-72 victory against Syracuse. I have little doubt the Hoyas will come to play in this one and they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning home record. Take Georgetown! |
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12-29-15 | Hawks v. Rockets -2.5 | Top | 121-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Rockets - The Rockets are showing exceptional value here as basically a pick'em at home against the Hawks. Houston has won 7 straight at home, including an impressive 88-84 win over the Spurs in their last home game. The Rockets did lose their last game at New Orleans 108-110, but that was a tough spot on the road with no rest after laying it all on the line against San Antonio on Christmas Day. The key here is that loss has created some value with Houston, who comes in well rested with 2 days off before this matchup. Atlanta on the other hand is in a horrible scheduling spot. The Hawks played last night in a hard fought 87-93 loss at Indiana and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back road set and 6th game overall in the last 10 days. Rockets are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 when playing with 2 days of rest, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a game where they failed to cover and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after playing their last game as a road favorite. Hawks are 0-4 ATS in last 4 when playing on no rest. Take Houston! |
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12-25-15 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 210 | Top | 83-89 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Warriors NBA Christmas Day Vegas Insider on UNDER These Christmas Day games have become quite the tradition and the NBA does their best to schedule quality games between some of the better teams in the league. With all other sports taking a back seat on Christmas, these games get a lot of public attention and thus the oddsmakers almost always inflate the totals knowing how much the public loves to back the over. At the same time, the players know these are some of the most watched games of the regular season and going up against a quality opponent in the spotlight of a nationally televised game almost always brings out their best performance. Whenever a team is motivated that leads to a lot of intensity on the defensive side of the floor. I think it's about as close as we get to a playoff type atmosphere during the regular season. All of this points heavily in the direction of the UNDER and this theory has been well proven over the years. Dating back to 2005, games played on Christmas Day have gone UNDER the total at a 67.5% clip (27-13-1). Taking this a step further, if you just look at non-conference games, the UNDER in these matchups has gone 13-3 (81%). As you have probably guessed by now, this is the main reasoning behind taking the UNDER in this game. It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 8-3-1 in the Cavs last 12 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also 6-1 in Cleveland's last 7 off a SU, 11-4 in the Warriors last 15 against the Central Division, and 15-7-2 in their last 24 home games. Take the UNDER! |