Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-03-12 | Miami Heat v. New York Knicks +6 | Top | 87-70 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Knicks +6
The Knicks may be without Amare Stoudemire tonight but they can't be counted out at home. New York went 9-4 in the 13 games Stoudemire missed down the stretch. The Knicks are actually a better defensive team without him on the floor. The Knicks have lost each of the first two games of this series by double digits but are on an impressive 20-6 ATS run following consecutive road losses of 10 points or more. They have won by an average score of 98.1 to 95.0 in this situation. New York's recent home court dominance also can't be ignored. Since Mike Woodson took over as interim coach on Mar. 14, the Knicks have gone 11-1 SU and ATS at home. Miami has won all 5 meetings with the Knicks this season by at least 8 points. By installing Miami as less than an 8-point favorite, they are begging for the money to roll in on the Heat. They're looking for a big payday with a New York cover, but they won't have my money. We'll take the points as the Knicks take the Heat down to the wire. |
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05-02-12 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 185.5 | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Clippers/Grizzlies Under 185.5
After blowing a 27-point lead by giving up 35 fourth-quarter points in Game 1, I expect an inspired defensive effort from one of the best defensive teams in the league tonight. The score should come in under this number as a result. The under is 14-6 in the Grizzlies' last 20 overall, 21-8 in their last 29 games following a loss and 8-2 in Grizzlies last 10 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Also, Memphis is 19-7 under when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season and 9-1 under off an upset loss this season. As you can see by these trends, Memphis responds following losses by tightening the screws on the defensive end. Plus, it will be very fresh having not played since Sunday. In addition, plays under on road teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a game involving two teams that allow 92-98 ppg and following a win by 3 points or less are 31-12 the last 5 seasons. We've only seen an average of 181.1 total points scored in this situation. Bet the Under. |
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05-01-12 | Denver Nuggets +6 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Nuggets +6
Denver's 103-88 Game 1 loss places it in a strong historical situation tonight. Consider that plays on road teams - explosive offensive team scoring 103+ points/game on the season - after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 103-58 ATS since 1996. This system is an awesome 73-32 ATS the last 5 seasons. In addition, the Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss, 36-15 ATS in their last 51 road games, 30-12 ATS in their last 42 games as an underdog, 28-10 ATS in their last 38 games as a road underdog and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Lakers are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a win, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points. |
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04-30-12 | Orlando Magic v. Indiana Pacers -8.5 | Top | 78-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Pacers -8.5
The Magic are not the same team without Dwight Howard. They took Game 1 but only managed 81 points. The Pacers have matchup advantages all over the court, especially inside, and I expect them to do a much better job of exploiting the mismatches in Game 2. The Pacers only shot 34.5 percent from the field in Game 1, but don't expect them to shoot that poorly again versus an Orlando squad that has allowed its foes to shoot around 45 percent. Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a loss in which they were held to 85 points or less, a good team (.600-.750 winning percentage ) playing a team with a winning record, are 39-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 11.0 points. Lay the number with the Pacers. |
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04-29-12 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies -5.5 | Top | 99-98 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -5.5
Memphis has the edge at home, where it is 26-7 with a 6.4-point average margin of victory. The Grizzlies were almost unbeatable at home in last year's playoffs, going 5-1 with those 5 wins coming by an average of 9.8 points. The Grizzlies enter the playoffs having won 11 in a row at home with those wins coming by an average of 7.5 points. This run is significant because plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off 3 or more consecutive home wins, in April games, are 44-14 ATS since 1996, including a perfect 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 6.6 points but have won by an average of 10.6. The Clippers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. They aren't nearly as good on the road and lost their lone regular season meeting in Memphis by 9 points. Take the Grizzlies. |
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04-28-12 | Dallas Mavericks +7.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 98-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks +7.5
The defending NBA champs won't go down without a fight. The Thunder won 3 of 4 meetings during the regular season, but their wins only came by an average of 5.0 points. In other words, the Mavs are showing some nice value with this line. In addition, the Mavericks are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinal games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record. The road team is 24-8-2 ATS in the last 34 meetings between these teams and the underdog is 17-4-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings. Also, the Mavs are 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 road meetings in this series. We'll take the points. |
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04-25-12 | Los Angeles Clippers +3.5 v. New York Knicks | Top | 93-99 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Clippers +3.5
This is a game the Clippers must have. They can earn home-court in the first round of the playoffs with a win or a Memphis loss to Orlando Thursday. With Dwight Howard out, they know they can't count on the Magic to pull off that upset. NY can still move up to the sixth seed if it wins its final two games and the Magic lose their last two, but I don't see Orlando losing at home to Charlotte tonight. The Knicks don't either. That's why they seriously have to think about losing this game. If I'm the Knicks, I want the Bulls in the first round, not the Heat. New York has played Chicago much tougher than Miami this season. With that said, I like the Clippers here even if the Knicks go after this game. The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. We'll take the Clippers and the points. |
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04-24-12 | Phoenix Suns v. Utah Jazz -4 | Top | 88-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
5* NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Jazz -4
Motivated by an opportunity to punch their postseason ticket, and further fueled by 7 consecutive losses to the Suns, expect the Jazz to take care of business tonight. Utah has been very strong at home all season with a 23-8 SU and 18-12-1 ATS record. It enters tonight's contest having won 4 straight and 13 of its last 16 at home with wins over the Lakers, Heat, Thunder, Nuggets, Spurs and Mavs during this stretch. In other words, Utah is fully capable of ending its skid against Phoenix in impressive fashion at home tonight. The Jazz are a dominant 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. The fact that Utah has been shooting the ball well from deep also bodes well for us. The Jazz haven't been reliant on the 3-point shot this season, but they have made 26 of 53 3-point attempts during their current 3-game winning streak. It is significant that they made 50% of their attempts from long range last game because they are a perfect 10-0 ATS in home games after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 3 seasons. They haven't just won these games, they've won them by an average score of 111.3 to 94.9. Both teams have had 2 days to gear up for this one but the Suns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 2 days' rest while the Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Take Utah. |
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04-22-12 | Orlando Magic v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 203.5 | Top | 74-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Total of the Week on Magic/Nuggets Under 203.5
A much better defensive effort from the Magic will keep this one under the number. After giving up triple-digits for a third straight game, coach Van Gundy has called out his team. "We just cannot guard," Van Gundy said. "I don't think it is that our guys are not trying, I don't know what it is, but we cannot guard anyone. We can't guard anyone ... Our defense is disturbing to say the least." Orlando is a perfect 9-0 under dating back to the start of last season after allowing 110 points or more in its last game. We have seen just 185.5 total points scored in this situation. In addition, the under is 8-3 in the Magic's last 11 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 7-2 in the Nuggets' last 9 games as a favorite. The under is also 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. |
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04-21-12 | Philadelphia 76ers +5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 109-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +5
Having already locked up the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs, the Pacers can sit back and relax. The 76ers, meanwhile, should play with a greater sense of urgency as they try to avoid a potentially crucial matchup in Milwaukee on Wednesday. With a win and a Milwaukee loss to New Jersey, Philly would clinch the final playoff spot in the East. Indiana is receiving plenty of recognition for its play this month, which bodes well for us as the books know which team the public will be backing. The Pacers have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games, which is significant because they are only 1-12 ATS this season following covers in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. They have lost by an average score of 96.4 to 92.2 in this situation. The 76ers have either won or played Indiana to within 5 points in 4 of the last 6 meetings. I expect the 76ers to be the more desperate team. Take the points. |
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04-19-12 | Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks +5.5
Two-and-a-half games out of the 8th spot, the Bucks can't afford another loss. We'll get behind this desperate team catching points tonight. The Bucks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games, and the road team is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Bucks are also 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Indiana. It's also worth noting that the underdog is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Milwaukee has won 3 of its last 4 trips to Indiana with the lone loss in this stretch coming by a single point. The Pacers have been playing well, but recent history tells us this is the time to fade them. After all, they are 0-12 ATS this season after covering the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. They have lost by an average score of 95.3 to 90.1 in this situation. We'll bet the Bucks. |
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04-18-12 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Denver Nuggets -3 | Top | 104-98 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets -3
The Clippers have won 4 in a row and 12 of 14, have a pair of wins over the Thunder in their last 4 games, have won 2 of 3 versus Denver this season and they're getting 3 points? The books clearly want the money on the Clipps. We won't give in. The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. It is also worth noting that the Nuggets are 64-45 ATS under coach Karl in home games when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. The Nugs have won by an average of 7.4 points in this situation. The Clippers blew out OKC 92-77 in their last game but are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points. Expect this trend to continue. Lay the points. |
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04-17-12 | Indiana Pacers v. Philadelphia 76ers -3 | Top | 102-97 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on 76ers -3
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by a 111-94 loss to Indiana last month, expect the 76ers to take care of business at home tonight. This is Philly's last home game of the season, a game it desperately needs as it's fading fast in the Eastern Conference playoff race. The 76ers opened as a 3.5-point favorite at most books, which is significant because favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent, provided that foe checks in off a home blowout win of 20 points or more, are 38-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 10.1 points. It is also worth noting that Philly is 26-15 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Pacers have covered the spread in 3 straight but are only 8-21 ATS after successfully covering the number in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. They've lost by an average of 5.1 points in this spot. Lastly, the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We'll lay the points with the home team tonight. |
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04-16-12 | Miami Heat v. New Jersey Nets +8.5 | Top | 101-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nets +8.5
Motivated by Saturday's loss to Boston and further fueled by losses to Miami in each of the season's first two meetings, including an embarrassing 30-point loss last month, expect the Nets to save face with a strong performance tonight. Saturday we won with the T-Wolves as we expected them to treat their matchup with the Thunder like Game 7 of the NBA Finals. The same strategy paid off Sunday as the Pistons left it all on the floor against the Bulls. We'll stick with this strategy here. The Nets may not get up for another game this season, but they'll get up for this one. The Heat, meanwhile, will have a difficult time putting the Nets away by double digits after playing a game Sunday. The Heat are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. This is the biggest game remaining on New Jersey's schedule, and I expect them to go after it hard. We'll take the points. |
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04-15-12 | Chicago Bulls v. Detroit Pistons +9.5 | Top | 100-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Pistons +9.5
Motivated by an embarrassing 113-97 home loss to Milwaukee last game, and further fueled by losses in each of the season's first 3 meetings with Chicago, expect the Pistons to show up in a big way here. This is the biggest game remaining on Detroit's schedule, and similar to Minnesota (who got up for OKC Saturday) it will treat it like Game 7 of the NBA Finals. Friday's loss to Milwaukee is significant because the Pistons are a near-perfect 9-1 ATS in home games off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. They have actually won by an average score of 104.6 to 99.2 in this situation. Also, the Pistons are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and I expect this trend to continue Sunday. Take the points. |
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04-14-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Minnesota Timberwolves +11 | Top | 115-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Timberwolves +11
Motivated by 8 straight defeats and 11 consecutive losses to the Thunder, expect the Timberwolves to play some inspired basketball at home tonight. An injury to Ricky Rubio derailed Minnesota's playoff hopes and now it is dealing with an injury to Kevin Love. Still, the T-Wolves have enough fire power with guys like Derrick Williams, Wesley Johnson, Jose Barea, Michael Beasley and Anthony Randolph to cover this number. With the postseason out of the question, this game will be Minnesota's Super Bowl (so to speak). The Thunder, meanwhile, will be much more concerned about their next opponent, the Clippers, who defeated them Wednesday. As I already mentioned, OKC has won 11 straight in the series. However, only 1 of those wins has come by more than 11 points. In addition, Minnesota has either won or lost to the Sonics/Thunder by fewer than 11 points in 8 straight home meetings. We'll take the points. |
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04-13-12 | Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 v. Detroit Pistons | Top | 113-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Bucks -4.5
The Bucks need a win tonight for any hope of staying in the playoff hunt. Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by a loss to Detroit in the most recent meeting, expect Milwaukee to take care of business here. Right away I love the fact that road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that check in off a home defeat and are out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent are 56-26 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this system have been favored by an average of 5.5 points and have won by an average of 7.2. In addition, Milwaukee is 30-16 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. It is also 7-1 ATS in its last 8 road games and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Pistons recorded a 24-point win at Charlotte last night to conclude a 7-day road trip. This is significant because they are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. We'll bet the Bucks. |
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04-12-12 | Memphis Grizzlies v. San Antonio Spurs -5.5 | Top | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs -5.5
The Spurs basically conceded defeat Monday against the Jazz with coach Pop thinking it was more important for Duncan, Parker and Ginobli to get rest. The trio was back in action last night but clearly didn't take the Bryant-less Lakers as seriously as they should have. Following that embarrassing loss, expect the Spurs to bounce back strong against a team they have owned this season. The Spurs have clearly been motivated against the Grizzlies, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. They have won each of this season's three meetings by an average of 9.3 points, winning the lone home meeting by 13. History is on our side here when you consider that plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points - a good offensive team (scoring 98-102 PPG) against an average offensive team (scoring 92-98 PPG), after scoring 85 points or less - are 40-12 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by 6.3 points on average and have won by 11.6 on average. This system is 20-3 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Spurs are 24-9-3 ATS in their last 36 games overall, 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss, 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss. The Grizzlies are just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. We'll lay the points. |
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04-11-12 | Atlanta Hawks +3.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks +3.5
This is a letdown spot for the Celtics following last night's big win in Miami. This is also a revenge spot for the Hawks, who lost by 3 at home to the C's last month. History tells us that Boston's offensive outburst last night sets it up for failure here as it is just 1-11 ATS in home games after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. It has only won these games by an average of 1.8 points. It's also worth noting that the C's are 11-25 ATS in the 2nd game of a back-to-back over the last 2 seasons. It's losing by an average of 0.4 points in these games. The Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Hawks have won 5 of the last 8 meetings in this series, and I like their chances of winning another against Boston tonight. |
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04-10-12 | Philadelphia 76ers -5 v. New Jersey Nets | Top | 107-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers -5
Motivated by 4 consecutive defeats and a 7-point loss to New Jersey in the season's first meeting, expect the 76ers to bounce back strong tonight. Right away I love the fact that plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points - good team outscoring its opponents by 3 points per game or more, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more - are 62-31 ATS since 1996. Team fitting into this system, which is 31-10 ATS the last 5 seasons and 16-5 ATS the last 3 seasons, have been favored by an average of 6.0 points and have won by an average of 8.3. Philly has lost 4 in a row, but 3 of those losses have come to Miami, Orlando and Boston. Consider that it is 17-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season, defeating these foes by an average of 11.9 points. It is also 13-4 ATS versus poor teams that are getting outscored by their opponents by 3 points per game or more this season. It has defeated these foes by an average of 12.9 points. The 76ers are 18-6 ATS in road games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the Nets. Those 5 wins have come by an average of 14.2 points. The Nets are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 home games, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 1-8 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. We'll lay the points. |
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04-09-12 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies -4 | Top | 85-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -4
The Grizzlies have won 7 of their last 9 games with wins over the Lakers, Thunder and Heat during this stretch. Keep in mind that these 3 keys wins came by 6, 6 and 15 points respectively. Also, keep in mind that these 3 wins came on the road. At home, where the Grizzlies are 19-7 on the season, I expect them to continue their strong play against the Clippers. The Clippers have won the season's first 2 meetings, but both of those came in LA. Rest assured, things will go much differently tonight. The Grizzlies are 51-31 ATS in their last 82 games when playing with double revenge. They are also 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less and 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. We'll lay the number. |
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04-07-12 | Boston Celtics +2 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 86-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year on Celtics +2
This is a major letdown spot for Indiana, which is playing its second game in as many nights following a big win over the Thunder. This is a major bounce back spot for Boston, however, following back-to-back losses and getting called out by coach Doc Rivers following Thursday's loss to Chicago. "I had to use two timeouts ... to remind us that we are actually having an NBA game tonight," Rivers said. "I thought this was the worst loss for us this year the way we approached the game." I fully expect this veteran squad to respond. The fact Boston has had a day to gear up is huge considering it is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The Pacers, meanwhile, are 11-27 ATS in their last 38 games when playing without a day of rest. It is also worth noting that the Celtics are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less while the Pacers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. Also, Indiana is 0-9 ATS this season after covering the number in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. It is losing by an average score of 95.8 to 89.1 in this situation. Boston will have fresher legs and it will be the hungrier side tonight. Take the Celtics. |
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04-06-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder -155 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 98-103 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Thunder -155
Motivated by losing consecutive games for just the 2nd time all season, expect the Thunder to bounce back strong tonight. Following back-to-back defeats on Jan. 2-3, the Thunder rebounded with a 15-point win over Houston. I expect them to take care of business again versus an Indiana squad they have defeated by 24 and 4 in the last 2 meetings. I like the Thunder on the point spread but love them on the money line at this price. OKC is 24-11 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 104.8 to 99.4 in this situation. It is also 16-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 102.3 to 95.4 in this situation. Indiana is 11-22 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons, 6-20 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons and 1-8 ATS after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season. The Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 39-17-1 ATS in their last 57 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or fewer. We'll take the Thunder. |
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04-05-12 | Washington Wizards +7.5 v. Detroit Pistons | Top | 94-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Wizards +7.5
Fueled by 3 consecutive defeats and a 2-point home loss to Detroit on Mar. 26, expect the Wizards to give the Pistons a game tonight. Washington blew a 13-point lead in the Mar. 26 meeting and was defeated on a Rodney Stuckey 20-foot jumper with 0.2 seconds remaining. That can't be sitting well with the Wizards, who won 98-77 in Detroit in the season's first meeting. In fact, Washington has either won or lost by fewer than tonight's posted spread in 3 straight and 4 of the last 5 meetings. Washington's defense hasn't been very good in its last 2 games, but recent history says it will do something about that tonight. The Wiz are 13-3 ATS after 2 straight games allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher over the last 3 seasons. The Wizards are only losing these games by an average of 0.1 points. It is also important to note that the Pistons are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points. |
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04-04-12 | Indiana Pacers v. Washington Wizards +6 | Top | 109-96 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Wizards +6
Motivated by back-to-back losses and further fueled by defeats in each of the season's first 2 meetings with Indiana, expect the Wizards to give the Pacers all they want and more here. Indiana just played last night and used a lot of energy while mounting a late comeback. Riding high from than win, and with OKC on deck, I expect a bit of a letdown from the Pacers. The Pacers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, 10-27 ATS in their last 37 games when playing without a day of rest, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Wizards, meanwhile, are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. It is also worth noting that the home team is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings, and the Pacers are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Washington. Take the points. |
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04-03-12 | Golden State Warriors +7.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 94-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Warriors +7.5
Hungry to end a 5-game skid and to avoid being swept by Memphis, expect the Warriors to play some inspired ball tonight. Off last night's upset win over the West-best Thunder, and with games against defending champion Dallas and reigning Eastern Conference champion Miami up next, I'm expecting a letdown from the Grizzlies here. The losses have started to pile up for the Warriors, but only one defeat during their current losing streak has come by more than 8 points. It is also worth noting that Golden State is 9-0 ATS all-time under coach Jackson in road games following 2 or more consecutive losses. The Warriors have actually won by an average score of 102.3 to 100.6 in this situation. In addition, the Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take Golden State. |
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04-02-12 | Memphis Grizzlies +8 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 94-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +8
This is a sandwich game for the Thunder, who are coming off a big win over Chicago and have a big game in Miami up next. Meanwhile, this is a highly motivated spot for the Grizzlies, who have lost each of the season's first three meetings with OKC. Memphis is a phenomenal 27-12 ATS in its last 39 games when out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent in which it allowed its foe to score 100 points or more. Memphis has only lost by an average of 1.1 points in this situation. The Grizzlies are also on a 52-34 ATS run as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 32-13-1 ATS in their last 46 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 11-1 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Grizzlies have won by an average score of 98.6 to 95.6 in this situation. It is also worth noting that plays against home favorites in the second game of a back-to-back in April are 165-105 (61.1%) since 1996. These teams have been favored by 6.7 points on average but have only won by an average of 3.7. This system is 21-10 (67.7% the last 3 seasons. The Thunder are also 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NBA Southwest division. Take the points. |
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04-01-12 | Denver Nuggets v. Orlando Magic -5.5 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Magic -5.5
Checking in off back-to-back defeats, the Magic will be hungry to run up the score on the Nuggets this evening. The Magic are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. Prior to Friday's home loss to Dallas, Orlando had won 6 of its last 7 at home with those 6 wins coming by an average of 12.3 points. Its home dominance of Denver also can't be ignored. The Magic have won 13 of their last 14 at home in the series with those 13 wins coming by an average of 11.2 points. It also doesn't bode well for Denver that it checks in off a SU win and cover. The Nuggets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. Those 7 defeats have come by an average of 10.0 points. We'll lay the points with the Magic as all signs point to a double-digit win. |
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03-31-12 | Utah Jazz +6 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 96-105 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +6
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by a 2-point loss to the Clippers last month, expect the Jazz to give L.A. all it wants and more tonight. Both of these teams played last night and recent history favors the Jazz in this back-to-back spot. In fact, they Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest while the Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a days' rest. The Clippers have not proven they can be trusted laying points. They are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Clippers are also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win while the Jazz are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Utah has played better ball than the Clippers this month and shouldn't be catching this many points. Take the Jazz. |
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03-31-12 | Ohio State -2.5 v. Kansas | Top | 62-64 | Loss | -102 | 79 h 56 m | Show |
5* Final Four *BEST BET* on Ohio State -2.5
The Buckeyes lost to Kansas in Lawrence by 11 points back in December, but Jared Sullinger didn't play in that contest. On a neutral floor and with Sullinger in the lineup, I fully expect the Buckeyes to have their revenge. Consider that Ohio State is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 road/neutral court games when out for revenge for a same season loss. The Buckeyes are also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as a favorite and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. The Jayhawks, meanwhile, are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. the Big Ten. The fact Kansas enters off a cover actually bodes well for the Buckeyes. That's because KU is 5-12 ATS after a game in which it covered the spread this season, including 0-4 ATS in its last 4 in this situation. Kansas has a few nice weapons (Thomas Robinson, Tyshawn Taylor, Elijah Johnson) but Ohio State has more guys (Jared Sullinger, Deshaun Thomas, William Buford and Aaron Craft) that are capable of putting the team on their back. I expect Craft's defense on Taylor to be the key to a Buckeyes win and cover. |
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03-30-12 | New York Knicks v. Atlanta Hawks -3 | Top | 90-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Hawks -3
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by an embarrassing 17-point loss in New York last month, expect the Hawks to bounce back strong this evening. The road hasn't been too kind to the Knicks. They are 9-15 when playing away from Madison Square Garden this season and enter tonight's contest with 7 losses in their last 9 road contests. Those 7 road defeats have come by an average of 9.7 points and all of them have come by at least 4 points. The Hawks are a rock solid 16-8 at home on the season and check in with 6 wins in their last 8 home contests. Those 6 wins, one of which was a 7-point victory against the Thunder, have come by an average of 7.0 points. The banged-up Knicks caught Orlando napping last game, but they won't take the Hawks by surprise here. The Knicks are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games, and I expect their road struggles to continue. |
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03-29-12 | Dallas Mavericks v. Miami Heat -8 | Top | 85-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Heat -8
Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats and with 2 days' rest on their side, expect the Heat to show no mercy when they take on the team that beat them in last year's NBA Finals. Miami won by 11 in Dallas on Christmas and it will be poised to send another message here. Right away you have to like the fact that plays on home favorites off a road loss by 10 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS the last 5 seasons. I also like the fact the Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Mavs have struggled winning just 2 of their last 10 away from home and going 3-7 ATS in those games. They are also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing with only 1 day of rest. Expect Dallas' road struggles to continue against a Miami squad that is 20-2 at home and has won those games by an average of 11.9 points. It is also worth noting that the Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games while the Mavericks are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 Thursday games. With these 6 ATS trends and a strong system on our side, I'll grab the Heat in this highly motivated spot. |
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03-28-12 | Denver Nuggets v. Toronto Raptors +4 | Top | 96-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Raptors +4
Motivated by back-to-back losses to Chicago and Orlando and further fueled by a 9-game losing streak to the Nuggets, expect the Raptors to take care of business at home tonight. Toronto has quietly been playing some very good basketball. Prior to a disappointing performance against Orlando last game, it had defeated the Knicks by 17 and played the Bulls to a 1-point game on the road. Denver is coming off a big win over the Bulls, which spells letdown for it tonight. Plus, the Nuggets really haven't been playing that well. They haven't won consecutive games since early this month, and, prior to beating Chicago, lost by 19 and 17 points at Utah and Minnesota. The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 1 day of rest. The Raptors, meanwhile, are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 1 day of rest, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Western Conference, 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games. Also, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Nuggets are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 and I'm not hesitating to fade them tonight. Take Toronto and best of luck. |
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03-27-12 | Atlanta Hawks v. Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 | Top | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks -1.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats to Indiana and New York as well as a pair of losses to Atlanta in the season's first two meetings, expect the Bucks to bounce back strong tonight. Milwaukee, which trails NY by 2.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East, knows it must take care of business at home the rest of the way out. The Bucks get 7 of their next 9 at home. This is also a look ahead spot for Atlanta, which has a big home game against the Bulls tomorrow night. The Bucks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. It is also worth noting that the favorite is 17-8-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. The Hawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Under coach Drew, Atlanta is just 14-28 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins. It is losing by an average of 3.0 points in this situation. The Bucks, meanwhile, are 30-15 ATS in home games under coach Skiles after 2 or more consecutive losses. Milwaukee has won by an average of 5.6 points in this situation. Bet the Bucks. |
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03-26-12 | Boston Celtics v. Charlotte Bobcats +7 | Top | 102-95 | Push | 0 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +7
The Bobcats will be lacking no motivation here following 3 consecutive defeats. Plus, this is a bad spot for Boston, which will be playing the second game of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days. The Celtics are just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games when playing without a day of rest. They are also 1-8 ATS in road games when playing the second game of a back-to-back this season. They have lost these games by an average score of 93.7 to 81.1. The Celtics have also been a poor investment on the road at 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games. They are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bobcats likely won't have to come up with a bunch of turnovers to cover this number either. Consider that Boston is 0-10 ATS in road games in the second half of the season the last 2 seasons versus teams who average 7 or less steals per game. The Celtics have lost to these teams by an average score of 93.7 to 84.1. The underdog is 17-4 ATS in the last 21 meetings, and the Celtics are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Charlotte won 2 of those 4 straight up. We'll bet the Bobcats. |
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03-25-12 | Memphis Grizzlies +7 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +7
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, and losses in both of this season's prior matchups with the Lakers, expect Memphis to show well tonight. The Grizzlies played Saturday while the Lakers rested, but the Grizzlies are 22-4 ATS in their last 26 games when playing without a day of rest and the Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing with 1 day of rest. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Grizzlies lost 116-111 at home to the Lakers in double OT on March 13 without stars Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay. With these two back in the lineup, Memphis should, at the very least, be able to take LA down to the wire again. |
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03-24-12 | Dallas Mavericks +3.5 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 101-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks +3.5
Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats to the Lakers and Spurs, expect the defending NBA champs to take their frustrations out on a team they have owned. The Mavs have won 4 in a row and 7 of their last 9 against Houston. Dallas just played last night, but it is an impressive 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when its starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Mavericks are also 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games as a road underdog, 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 games as an underdog and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Rockets are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. The Mavericks are 16-7 ATS in the last 23 meetings and 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Houston. We'll take the points. |
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03-23-12 | NC State v. Kansas -8 | Top | 57-60 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Kansas -8
Odds makers clearly want the money on NC State by installing the red-hot Wolfpack as nearly a double-digit dog. We won't take the bait. Kansas is the more talented team, and it will be very focused here after getting a scare by Purdue. The Jayhawks will draw further motivation from recent shortcomings. It was knocked out of last year's Big Dance by VCU and it hasn't forgotten. I expect that loss to be the driving force before a decisive victory by the Jayhawks tonight. Taking Kansas following a game in which it failed to cover the spread has produced an 11-4 ATS mark this season. The Jayhawks, who have won by an average score of 72.8 to 60.7 in this situation, are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. Kansas is also an impressive 18-7 ATS in its last 25 road/neutral floor games after a close win by 3 points or less. It has won by an average score of 78.1 to 64.2 in this situation. NC State is solid defensively, but KU is 13-6 ATS versus good defensive teams that hold their opponents to 42% shooting or worse this season. The Jayhawks have defeated these clubs by an average score of 74.6 to 57.6. NC State, meanwhile, is just 4-12 ATS versus very good defensive teams that hold their foes to 39% shooting or worse over the last two seasons. It has lost these contests by an average score of 76.1 to 66.4. Take Kansas and best of luck. |
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03-23-12 | New York Knicks v. Toronto Raptors +5.5 | Top | 79-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Raptors +5.5
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, including an embarrassing 19-point loss at New York Mar. 20, expect the Raptors to give the Knicks all they want and more tonight. Prior to that loss, Toronto had defeated the Knicks by 5 points in the season's first meeting and only lost by 3 points in the second meeting. In other words, the Raptors clearly have what it takes to get the "W" in this highly motivated spot. The Knicks have not shown that they can be trusted in the road chalk at 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite. Plus, the Raptors are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with 1 day of rest. Lastly, the underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. We'll take the points. |
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03-22-12 | Florida v. Marquette -2 | Top | 68-58 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
5* Sweet 16 *BEST BET* (TBS) on Marquette -2
After back-to-back blowout wins over double-digit seeds, I expect Florida to be in for a rude awakening as it takes a major step up in competition tonight. The Golden Eagles were tested by Murray State last time out, so I fully expect them to be on their game. With the total currently at 146.5, odds makers are expecting some points to be scored in this contest. History suggests this high number indicates the odds are in Marquette's favor. Consider that Marquette is 8-0 ATS in neutral court games when the total is 145 to 149.5 since 1997. It has won these games by an average score of 78.9 to 64.1. In addition, the Golden Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Florida isn't the same team without Chandler Parsons, and that has been apparent all season. I'm not going to let what they've done against two inferior teams in the Big Dance change my opinion. The Golden Eagles are on a mission to get to the Elite 8 after losing in the Sweet 16 last year. We'll lay the points. |
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03-21-12 | Chicago Bulls v. Toronto Raptors +7.5 | Top | 94-82 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Raptors +7.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by a 13-point loss in the season's first meeting, expect the Raptors to give the Bulls all they want and more tonight. Revenge has been a great angle to play with the Raptors, who are 13-4 ATS in home games when out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Raptors have actually won by an average score of 101.3 to 95.6 in this situation. The Raptors have been extremely undervalued against winning teams and Chicago couldn't be more overvalued here following an 85-59 win over Orlando without Derrick Rose on the floor. The Raptors are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog. It is also worth noting that the Bulls are just 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series. We'll take the points. |
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03-20-12 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Indiana Pacers -3.5 | Top | 89-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers -3.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and having had 2 days to prepare, expect the Pacers to take care of business tonight at home, where they are 13-6. The home team has had the edge in this series, winning each of the past 4 meetings by an average of 15.8 points. In fact, the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Pacers have won 2 straight and 11 of their last 14 at home in this series. In addition, the Clippers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games vs. Central division opponents and 0-7 ATS after playing 3 consecutive home games this season. We'll lay the points. |
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03-19-12 | Boston Celtics +1.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +1.5
Motivated by back-to-back poor performance against Sacramento and Denver, expect Boston to take care of business tonight. Boston has played a lot of games in not a lot of days but should benefit from having Sunday off while the Hawks were in action. Besides, road teams that have failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games, extremely tired team playing 9 or more games in 14 days, are 34-12 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Hawks are a lousy 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NBA Atlantic division. Also, they are just 13-27 ATS all-time under coach Drew following 2 or more consecutive wins. They have lost by an average score of 96.2 to 92.9 in this situation. The Hawks are very banged up. They were to get past Washington and Cleveland without being at full strength, but I don't think they'll be able to get past the Celtics. Bet Boston. |
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03-18-12 | Atlanta Hawks v. Cleveland Cavaliers +2.5 | Top | 103-87 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Cavs +2.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses and further fueled by an embarrassing 121-94 loss at Atlanta in the season's first meeting, expect the Cavs to take care of business this afternoon. Cleveland has had 3 full days to rest up and prepare for this game. Atlanta has only had one and will likely already be looking ahead to tomorrow's matchup with Boston. Cleveland has been a phenomenal small dog at 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. We'll take the points. |
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03-17-12 | Virginia Commonwealth v. Indiana -6 | Top | 61-63 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
5* Round of 32 Game of the Year on Indiana -6
It's been a great two-year run for VCU, but I believe it comes to an end here. The Rams have cleaned up against teams from mid-major conferences but are just 1-3 against schools from power conferences. They have losses of 15, 13 and 8 points to Seton Hall, Georgia Tech and Alabama and Indiana is far superior to these three. Teams in the Big Ten have had some success against the Hoosiers but nobody else has this season. With Indiana's round of 64 win, it improved to 14-0 against non-conference foes. 8 of those games have been lined and the Hoosiers are 8-0 ATS in those games, winning them by an average score of 83.7 to 59.9. 3 of these wins have come against NC State, Kentucky and Notre Dame. Lay the points. |
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03-16-12 | Minnesota Timberwolves +8.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 92-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Timberwolves +8.5
This is a game the Timberwolves want badly after dropping the season's first 3 meetings with the Lakers. Motivated by those losses and a 6-point setback in Utah last night, expect the Wolves to give the Lakers a game. Minnesota is 18-8 ATS as an underdog this season, 14-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Timberwolves are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings road meetings in this series. The Lakers are 6-19 ATS in Friday night home games the last 3 seasons. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. We'll take the T-Wolves in this highly motivated spot. |
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03-16-12 | Texas v. Cincinnati -2 | Top | 59-65 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament 1st Round Game of the Year on Cincinnati -2
This Cincinnati team, which defeated Mizzou 78-63 in the first round last year, has the ability to go deep in this tournament. It would be a major upset in my mind if this young, inexperienced Texas squad moved on here, and I don't see it happening. Texas is just 5-10 when playing away from home this season while Cincy is 9-6. The Bearcats also enter the dance playing better basketball with 9 wins in their last 12 games. The Bearcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big 12. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. The fact Texas doesn't force many turnovers weighs heavily in our favor. That's because Cincy is 8-2 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams that force <=14 turnovers/game this season. Take the Bearcats. |
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03-15-12 | Virginia Commonwealth v. Wichita State -6 | Top | 62-59 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 29 m | Show |
5* Big Dance *BEST BET* on Wichita State -6
With VCU's 2011 Cinderella run fresh in everyone's mind, odds makers are trying to take advantage. They are begging bettors to take the points with last year's Final Four participant, but we won't fall for the trap. This is not the same VCU team. The Rams returned just 2 starters from that squad, which is a big reason why they were crushed by double digits in road/neutral court games against non-tournament teams Seton Hall and Georgia Tech. Wichita State has the look of a very dangerous team and should meet the challenge here. It is 9-2 ATS when playing away from home 15 or more games into the season versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons. The Shockers are defeating these teams by an average of 11.0 points. The Shockers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games as a favorite and 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Wichita State defeated No. 8 seed Creighton by 21 on the road. It also defeated No. 13 seed Dayton by 17 on the road. The Shockers also have an impressive 19-point win over No. 6 seed UNLV. Wichita State is capable of a blowout here. We'll lay the points. |
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03-14-12 | Nevada v. Oral Roberts -5.5 | Top | 68-59 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Oral Roberts -5.5
Oral Roberts is 15-0 at home where it has won by an average of 10.9 points. The Golden Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. Nevada is no slouch but will certainly have its work cut out for itself in ORU's gym. In addition, common opponent analysis supports this play. These two have played three like opponents since the beginning of last season. Oral Roberts is 4-0 versus those foes while Nevada is 0-3. This season, ORU defeated Missouri State at home by 5 points while Nevada lost to Missouri State at home by 22. Last season, Nevada lost by double digits to Pacific and South Dakota State - teams ORU defeated by 16, 8 and 4 points respectively (played SDSU twice). We'll lay the points. |
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03-14-12 | Los Angeles Lakers v. New Orleans Hornets +4.5 | Top | 107-101 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Hornets +4.5
This isn't a good spot for the Lakers. First of all, they are just 6-15-1 ATS in road games this season, losing these games by an average score of 97.1 to 92.6. Secondly, the Lakers just played a double-OT game in Memphis last night. They will be fatigued and typically struggle when that is the case. The Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Bobcats are coming off a loss to the NBA's worst team (Charlotte) so you can expect them to be very motivated this evening. The Hornets have home wins over Boston, Orlando and Dallas and have played San Antonio to a 2-point game at home. In other words, beating the Lakers outright is certainly in the cards. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite. The Hornets are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and the underdog is 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings. Take the points. |
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03-13-12 | Atlanta Hawks v. Denver Nuggets -5 | Top | 117-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets -5
Motivated by a home loss to Memphis Sunday, expect the Nuggets to bounce back strong against a team they have defeated 3 consecutive times by an average of 15.0 points. It is also worth noting that the Nuggets have won 4 in a row at home against the Hawks with those wins coming by an average of 9.5 points. The Nuggets have dominated teams from the East, going 23-5 ATS in their last 28 games against them. They have especially dominated the Southeast division, going 10-1 ATS in home games against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets haven't just won these games, they have won them by an average of 18.7 points. Bet Denver. |
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03-12-12 | Minnesota Timberwolves +4 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 127-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Timberwolves +4
The Timberwolves have lost back-to-back games, Ricky Rubio for the season and they lost in Phoenix by 9 points earlier this month. The Suns have been playing well, winning 4 of 5 since these two last met, and yet they are laying less points than they did the last time these two faced off. I smell a trap. The books obviously like Minnesota's chances tonight, and I have to agree. Rubio plays with flare at times and makes spectacular plays on occasion, but veteran Luke Ridnour is a better shooter and plays with intelligence. I don't see much of a drop off, if any. The T-wolves shot 1 of 13 from 3-point range in the previous meeting, and I don't see that happening again. We're talking about a team that averages 7 3-point makes per game. Minnesota is 19-9 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons, 10-2 ATS in road games after playing a home game this season, 17-7 ATS as an underdog this season and 13-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Also, the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the points. |
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03-11-12 | Ohio State v. Michigan State +2 | Top | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
5* Big Ten Championship *BEST BET* (CBS) on Michigan State +2
This is the matchup the Spartans were hoping for when they lost to Ohio State by 2 points at home in the regular season finale and lost an outright Big Ten title along with it. Big Ten player of the year Draymond Green certainly wants this game. "It's just another opportunity for us. We had two chances to win the Big Ten outright, we didn't do it," Green said. "You can't really make up for it, but it's an opportunity to feel better about it if we get this conference tournament championship. It's just another way to leave that footprint, leave your legacy." Green also knows a win could give his team a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance. One thing you don't want to make a habit of is going against the Spartans as a neutral court dog. That's because they are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 as a neutral court underdog or pickem. They are also 20-7 ATS in their last 27 as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pickem. Michigan State has also been strong in revenge spots. It is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 games when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. It has won by an average score of 69.5 to 62.0 in this situation. It is also 11-3 ATS when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent, winning in this situation by an average score of 70.9 to 63.5. The Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll take Michigan State. |
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03-10-12 | Indiana Pacers +9.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 91-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +9.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats to Chicago and Atlanta, and further fueled by a pair of lopsided losses in the season's first two meetings with Miami, expect the Pacers to leave it all on the floor tonight. Indiana believes it can play with anyone in the NBA this season, and it will be out to solidify that belief this evening. As far as rest goes, the advantage lies with Indy. It has had 3 full days to rest and prepare while Miami has only had 2. The Heat are 0-8 ATS in home games when playing with 2 days' rest over the last 2 seasons. The Pacers, meanwhile, are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. We'll take the points. |
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03-10-12 | NC State +9 v. North Carolina | Top | 67-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
5* ACC Game of the Year on NC State +9
Motivated by a pair of double-digit losses to the Heels in the two regular season meetings and further fueled by an opportunity to leave no doubt in the minds of the NCAA selection committee, expect NC State to give UNC all it wants and more here. The Wolfpack are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. Also, UNC is 0-9 ATS when playing away from home with one or no days' rest over the last 2 seasons. It is actually losing in this situation by an average of 1.9 points. This game means way more to the Wolfpack. Take the points. |
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03-09-12 | Los Angeles Clippers +5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Clippers +5
Motivated by back-to-back 1-point defeats, and further fueled by a pair of loss to San Antonio this season, expect the Clippers to give the Spurs all they want and more. The Clippers have been a strong wager in bounce back spots at 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The fact San Antonio enters off a satisfying win over the Knicks bodes well for us. That's because the Spurs are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Spurs have dropped 2 of their last 4 at home, and could suffer another setback tonight. We'll take the points. |
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03-09-12 | Kent State +2 v. Akron | Top | 74-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
5* Conference Tourney *BEST BET* on Kent State +2
Kent State lost to Akron by 1 point in last year's MAC tourney and it lost both of this year's regular season meetings. Motivated by those setbacks, I expect the Golden Flashes to get the job done this evening. Revenge has been a strong angle to play with Kent State, considering it is 20-4 ATS in its last 24 games when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. It has won these games by an average score of 70.7 to 62.2. The Golden Flashes did not meet expectations this season and will be out for some serious payback here. Take Kent State. |
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03-08-12 | Dallas Mavericks v. Phoenix Suns +3.5 | Top | 94-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* (TNT) on Suns +3.5
This is a game the Suns want badly. They have lost 8 in a row to the Mavs, including all 3 this season, and were embarrassed with a 122-99 home loss the last time they squared off. Motivation is rarely enough alone, so it's fortunate for us that Dallas has been struggling on the road. This really doesn't come as much of a surprise. Dallas was so good last season because of its bench, and it's not getting the same production from the second unit due to injuries and losing J.J. Barea. Dallas has lost 4 in a row on the road by an average of 6.8 points and one of those was a 5-point loss to lowly New Orleans. The Suns, meanwhile, have won 5 of their last 6 at home and haven't lost by more than 2 points in any of their last 7 home games. The Suns played in OKC last night but shouldn't be gassed as they had 2 days' rest prior. In fact, the Suns are 9-0 ATS all-time under coach Gentry in home games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days. They have won by an average score of 101.2 to 92.0 in this spot. We'll take the Suns. |
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03-08-12 | Stanford v. California -4 | Top | 71-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Game of the Year on Cal -4
Back-to-back losses to Colorado and Stanford cost Cal a Pac-12 title, and I have no doubt that simple fact isn't sitting well with the Bears. Motivated by those defeats, I expect Cal to be on a mission in the Pac-12 tourney. They'll especially take great pride in paying back rival Stanford. Cal had defeated Stanford by double digits in back-to-back meetings and by at least 7 points in 5 of 6 meetings before enduring a 5-point loss to the Cardinal on March 4. The fact Stanford was plus-12 from 3-point range in that game was a fluke considering it hadn't been more than plus-9 in any of the previous five meetings. It was no more than plus-six in four of those. Cal is the better team, and I don't expect it to allow Stanford to beat it with the long ball again. Cal is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 when playing away from home after 2 or more consecutive losses, 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games away from home off 2 straight losses to conference rivals and 6-0 ATS when playing away from home after having lost 2 of its last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. In addition, Stanford is 0-6 ATS after covering the number in 5 or 6 of its last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. Lastly, the favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. We'll take Cal. |
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03-07-12 | Houston v. UTEP -3.5 | Top | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
5* C-USA Tournament Game of the Year on UTEP -3.5
UTEP finished the regular season with 3 straight losses while Houston finished with 3 straight wins, but I'm confident the Miners are the better team. UTEP crushed Houston by 20 points at home on Jan. 7 before losing to the Cougars on the road in OT on Jan. 28. I love the Miners' chances of covering this number on a neutral floor. It is worth our while to consider that plays against underdogs that have successfully covered the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, with a winning percentage between 45-55% on the season, are 40-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. These dogs have lost by an average of 10.1 points in this situation. The Miners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games and 13-4 ATS after being held to 65 points or less in 3 straight games. Lay the points. |
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03-07-12 | Boston Celtics v. Philadelphia 76ers -5.5 | Top | 71-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on 76ers -5.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, expect the 76ers to bounce back strong against a fatigued Boston squad that was pushed to OT last night. The Celtics have won 5 in a row, with the last 4 coming at home, but I believe their luck is about to change on the road. The Celtics are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. They are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games when playing without a day of rest and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The 76ers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Lay the points. |
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03-06-12 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Detroit Pistons +6 | Top | 85-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +6
There's no place like home for the Lakers, who are just 6-12 SU and 5-13 ATS on the road. The Lakers haven't won by more than 5 points away from home this season with those 6 wins coming by just 3.3 points on average. This tells us LA is overvalued tonight. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite while the Pistons are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Pistons are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog, 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. We'll take the points. |
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03-06-12 | George Washington +10 v. Dayton | Top | 50-67 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
5* Conference Tourney *BEST BET* on George Washington +10
Motivated by back-to-back losses, including a 16-point defeat at Dayton last game, expect George Washington to give the Flyers a run for their money tonight. One thing that has been an absolute must is fading Archie Miller's Dayton squad following a win or 15 or more. Doing so has produced a perfect 6-0 ATS mark all-time, and Dayton has lost these 6 contests by an average of 10.0 points. In addition, GW is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. It's only losing by an average of 0.1 points in this situation. GW is also 14-4 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss in which it was held to fewer than 60 points. We'll take the points. |
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03-05-12 | Sacramento Kings +9.5 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 116-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +9.5
Out to end a 3-game skid, and out to avenge a pair of embarrassing losses to Denver, the Kings will be lacking no motivation this evening. Sacramento has been a more than quality investment this season when checking in off 3 of more consecutive losses. In fact, it is 8-1 ATS in these spots and is winning by an average of 0.7 points. In addition, the Kings are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NBA Northwest division and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games when playing with a days' rest. We'll back the Kings in this highly motivated spot. |
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03-04-12 | Miami Heat v. Los Angeles Lakers +4 | Top | 83-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
5* Sunday NBA *BEST BET* (ABC) on Lakers +4
The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the Heat in a bounce back spot following a 1-point loss at Utah, but recent history tells us this isn't wise. Consider that Miami is just 4-16 after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. It is actually losing by an average of 2.0 points in this spot. The Lakers are 16-2 at home this season and enter this contest having won 7 in a row at Staples. Their 2 home defeats to the Bulls and Pacers have come by 1 and 2 points respectively. The Lakers will also be very motivated here because they were embarrassed in Miami in January. Plays on home underdogs in non-conference play that are extremely well rested team (playing 3 or less games in 10 days) are an awesome 45-18 ATS since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 3.7 points on average but have won by an average of 1.4 points. This system is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons and 18-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Lakers. |
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03-03-12 | Southern Miss v. Marshall -2.5 | Top | 75-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Marshall -2.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and a 4-point loss at So. Miss in the season's first meeting, expect Marshall to bounce back strong today. The consecutive losses are significant because coach Herrion's squads are 8-0 ATS off 2 straight losses against conference rivals. They have won these games by an average score of 76.3 to 65.8. Marshall is a better team than it has shown in C-USA play. We're talking about a team that played No. 2 Syracuse to a 6-point game on the road. The Thundering Herd are 12-4 at home on the season, and I expect them to show what they are truly capable of this afternoon. So. Miss has lost 3 straight on the road to UTEP, Houston and UAB. If it can't beat UTEP or Houston on the road, it's going to have a very tough time against the Herd here. The Golden Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 0-4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Take Marshall. |
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03-02-12 | Missouri State -2 v. Evansville | Top | 64-72 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
5* Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Game of the Year on Missouri State -2
Motivated by 4 consecutive defeats and a pair of losses to Evansville, Missouri State will be lacking no motivation when it hits the floor tonight. I have no doubt the value lies with Missouri State here and history is on our side. The fact Missouri State has endured 6 straight ATS defeats and Evansville has rattled off 4 straight ATS wins bodes extremely well for us. In fact, plays on favorites that have failed to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, provided they are up against an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, are 49-23 (68.1%) ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 11.0 points. Neither team has played since Feb. 25 but the extra time off figures to be more detrimental to the Purple Aces, who are just 2-10 ATS under coach Simmons when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. They have lost by an average of 9.9 points in this situation. I really believe Missouri State is the better team, and I can't see it losing 3 times to Evansville in the same season. Lay the number. |
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03-02-12 | Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5 | Top | 112-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Cavs +8.5
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, and further fueled by an embarrassing 39-point loss to Chicago on Jan. 20, I expect Cleveland to cover this number behind an inspired performance. Because Chicago won the first meeting so handily, I believe it will be much more concerned with its upcoming revenge matchup with Philadelphia. The Cavs lost by 17 at New York Wednesday but are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 8-1 ATS off a road loss this season. Also, the Cavaliers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog and 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games against top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 9 points or more per game. We'll take the points. |
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03-01-12 | Washington v. USC +7.5 | Top | 80-58 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
5* Pac-12 Game of the Week on USC +7.5
Motivated by 7 consecutive losses and an embarrassing 28-point defeat at Washington last month, expect USC to save face by giving the Huskies a game. Washington has been far from dominant on the road. The Huskies are 5-6 when playing away from home this season and none of those 5 wins have come by more than 6 points. The Huskies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. We'll take the points. |
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02-29-12 | Portland Trailblazers v. Denver Nuggets -3 | Top | 95-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Nuggets -3
Motivated by back-to-back losses and further fueled by losses in the season's first two matchups with Portland, expect the Nuggets to bounce back strong tonight. The Blazers won the season's first two meetings by 9 and 20 points but both of those games were in Portland. Home court has meant everything in this series with the home team covering the spread in 12 of the last 14 meetings. Denver has won 6 in a row at home against the Blazers by an average of 15.0 points. It is also worth noting that the Trail Blazers are just 4-16 ATS in the last 20 meetings in Denver. Lay the points. |
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02-29-12 | Ohio v. Kent State -2 | Top | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Kent State -2
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats and further fueled by a 22-point beatdown at Ohio last month, expect Kent State to roll at home this evening. One thing Kent State doesn't do is lose to the same team twice in the same season. In fact, it is 19-3 ATS in its last 22 games when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. It's winning by an average of 9.2 points in this situation. In addition, the Golden Flashes has been a tremendous investment as small home chalk, going 39-16-2 ATS in their last 57 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Bobcats are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pickem. Take Kent State. |
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02-28-12 | Minnesota +9.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 45-52 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
5* Big Ten *BEST BET* on Minnesota +9.5
Hungry to end a 5-game slide, and further fueled by a 7-point loss at Wisconsin on Feb. 9, expect Minnesota to give the Badgers a game this evening. Wisconsin, which has split the last 6 meetings with Minnesota, hasn't defeated the Gophers by more than 9 points since 2008. It is clearly being overvalued here because it is coming off a big win over Ohio State. That win is significant because the Badgers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a victory. The Badgers are also just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. The fact Minnesota enters off an embarrassing 19-point loss to Indiana also bodes well for us. Consider that plays on road teams as an underdog or pickem off an embarrassing home loss in which they were held to 60 points or less, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, are 75-43 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in this situation have been underdogs of 9.2 points on average but have only lost by an average of 7.3. We'll take the points. |
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02-27-12 | Kansas v. Oklahoma State +9 | Top | 70-58 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
5* Big 12 Game of the Week on Oklahoma State +9
Kansas is in for a letdown tonight after coming back from a 19-point second half deficit to beat Missouri 87-86 in overtime Saturday to clinch at least a share of its eighth consecutive Big 12 regular-season title. "I hate nothing more than losing to Missouri, but to me it wasn't about the last time we played," coach Bill Self said. "To me it was about this team winning its eighth straight championship. I'm not the most emotional guy, but that was as good as it gets." It sounds to me like Self already feels like his team has accomplished something. The Jayhawks likely won't have the focus or drive to come away with a victory tonight. Even if they do show up, the Cowboys have an excellent opportunity to keep it within the number. Oklahoma State is 11-3 at home this season with those 3 losses coming by just 6, 8 and 4 points respectively. The Cowboys lost the season's first meeting by 13 at Kansas but are 7-0 ATS this season when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. They have won by an average of 1.4 points in these games. The Jayhawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Also, they are 0-7 ATS all-time under coach Self when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) after 15 or more games and 0-6 ATS all-time under Self in road games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=12 assists/game after 15+ games. Kansas hasn't been able to expose teams that don't get a great deal of points off assists, which bodes well for us. It's also in our favor that Oklahoma State doesn't turn the ball over very much. Under coach Travis Ford, the Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in home games after 4 straight games of committing 14 or less turnovers. We'll take the points. |
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02-26-12 | California v. Colorado +3 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
5* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Colorado +3
Motivated by an embarrassing 24-point loss to Stanford, which snapped a 10-game home winning streak, and further fueled by 7-point loss at Cal last month, expect Colorado to take care of business at home this evening. Consider that all teams when the line is +3 to -3 off an upset loss by 15 points or more, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record, are 71-33 ATS since 1997. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 3.8 points. It is also worth noting that this system is 5-1 ATS on the season. The Buffaloes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Cal and have won 3 straight at home in the series by an average of 17.7 points. Bet the Buffs. |
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02-25-12 | Wisc-Green Bay v. Illinois-Chicago +3 | Top | 71-63 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Illinois-Chicago +3
Illinois Chicago is coming off back-to-back losses SU and ATS but that won't keep me away. You see, the Flames are a perfect 7-0 ATS after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons and 9-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. It is also worth noting that they are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. Illinois Chicago defeated Green Bay by 2 points at home last season as a 2-point dog and it won by 7 at home in 2010 as a 4-point dog. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll take the points. |
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02-24-12 | Fairfield +8 v. Iona | Top | 72-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *Friday Night Feast* on Fairfield +8
Since losing 71-62 at home to Iona on Jan. 27, the defending MAAC champs have been on a mission. They have won 7 straight in conference play by an average of 14.4 points. This run includes an impressive 6-point home win over Manhattan and an even more impressive 17-point road win over Loyola Maryland. With a chance to pull even with Iona for first place in the league, I expect an inspired effort from the Stags this evening. The first meeting between these two was closer than the final score might lead you to believe. Despite facing a 19-point half time deficit, Fairfield rallied to pull within 4 points with 2:39 remaining. They missed their final 3 shots while the Gaels connected on 5 of 6 free throws to earn the 9-point victory. I don't see the Stags falling behind big again, which gives them an excellent opportunity to cover this generous number. Coach Sydney Johnson's teams are 14-4 ATS all-time as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. In addition, his squads are 15-5 ATS when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent and 12-3 ATS when out for revenge for a same season loss to a foe. The Stags are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the MAAC. The Gaels are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. We'll take the points. |
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02-23-12 | South Alabama v. Florida Atlantic -6 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
5* Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -6
Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, and further fueled by a 9-point loss at South Alabama earlier this month, expect FAU to roll at home tonight. The Jaguars enter having won 3 in a row in conference play, and that doesn't bode well for them. Under coach Arrow, they are just 8-18 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins and 2-9 ATS off 3 straight wins against conference rivals. It is extremely significant that FAU averages 70.1 point at home and S. Alabama gives up 71.8 points on the road. That's because the Jaguars are 0-10 ATS when they allow 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. They have lost these games by an average of 13.7 points. Lay the points. |
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02-22-12 | Ohio v. Buffalo -3 | Top | 88-77 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Buffalo -3
Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, and further fueled by consecutive losses to Ohio, expect Buffalo to bounce back strong at home where it has won 7 in a row by an average of 15.3 points. Ohio has struggled on the road where it has dropped 4 of its last 5 with those 4 losses coming by an average of 8.0 points. Its lone win during this stretch came against a Northern Illinois squad that is 3-22. It is also worth noting that the Bobcats went 0-5 ATS in these games. The Bulls are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Lay the points. |
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02-21-12 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State +9 | Top | 73-64 | Push | 0 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
5* SEC Game of the Week on Mississippi State +9
Off 3 consecutive defeats and with the No. 1 team in the country in town, expect maximum effort from Mississippi State this evening. Kentucky has needed overtime to win the previous two meetings between these teams, and the last seven games in the series have been decided by an average of 4.7 points. Also, Mississippi State has won 13 of its last 14 at home with the lone loss coming in overtime to Georgia. The Bulldogs are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games off 2 or more consecutive road losses, winning by an average score of 73.1 to 65.6 in this situation. The Bulldogs are also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog, 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We'll take the points. |
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02-20-12 | Washington Wizards +5.5 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 88-104 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Wizards +5.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by a 9-game losing streak in the series, expect the Wizards to play some inspired basketball this evening. The Suns are coming off a big revenge win over the Lakers last night and very likely won't give the Wizards enough respect here. The Suns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Washington, which has had 2 full days of rest, will be the fresher team tonight. The Suns are 0-9 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons when matched up against an opponent with a winning percentage of 25% or less. The Suns have only won these games by an average of 0.1 points. It's also worth noting that the road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Take the points. |
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02-19-12 | South Florida v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 56-47 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
5* Big East Game of the Year on Pittsburgh -6.5
Extremely motivated following 3 consecutive defeats, and further fueled by a 12-point loss at South Florida last week, expect Pitt to take care of business on its home floor this evening. The Bulls haven't been the same team on the road. They are 3-9 when playing away from home this season and 6 of their 7 losses in true road games have come by 23, 28, 12, 11, 20 and 30 points. In other words, South Florida is far from immune to taking a beating on the highway. The Bulls are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. Pitt is coming off a very poor showing against West Virginia in which it only scored 48 points. That sour performance will especially light a fire under the Panthers, who are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game. Pound Pitt. |
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02-18-12 | Tennessee v. Alabama -3.5 | Top | 50-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
5* SEC Game of the Year on Alabama -3.5
Alabama is missing a couple key players, but I still love the Tide at home in this highly motivated spot versus a Tennessee team that is just 2-7 in true road games. Each of those 7 defeats have come by at least 4 points and have been by an average of 11.9 points. Alabama is an elite defensive team and it does an excellent job of working for good shots on the offensive end. This means you better be able to force some turnovers in order to come out on top against the Tide, especially in Tuscaloosa. The Vols only average 6 steals per game and Bama is a perfect 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Grant in home games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15-plus games. The Tide have won these contests by an average score of 69.2 to 58.3. The Volunteers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Crimson Tide are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Volunteers are also just 3-10 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Take the Tide. |
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02-17-12 | Miami Heat v. Cleveland Cavaliers +10.5 | Top | 111-87 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Cavaliers +10.5
Motivated by losing the season's first two meetings with Miami, expect the Cavs to give the Heat a game tonight. Cleveland has been no pushover this season. It played the Heat to a 7-point game on Jan. 24 and has wins over the Celtics, Mavericks and Clippers. The last time Miami visited, it was handed a 12-point defeat despite 27 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds from LeBron James. The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog. The Heat are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points. |
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02-16-12 | Brigham Young v. San Francisco +5.5 | Top | 85-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on San Francisco +5.5
San Francisco, which has won 7 of its last 9, has been hitting on all cylinders lately. Motivated by an embarrassing 81-56 loss at BYU early last month, I like the Dons' chances of pulling off the upset tonight. The fact BYU enters off a 22-point over Pepperdine bodes extremely well for us. That's because the Cougars are 0-6 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Dons are a terrific 28-11 ATS in their last 39 games vs. WCC foes, and a perfect 6-0 ATS off a win against a conference rival this season. The Dons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. The Dons are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. Lastly, the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. San Francisco couldn't buy a basket in the first meetings. Rest assured, the shots will fall much easier at home where the Dons are 11-2. Take the points. |
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02-15-12 | Purdue v. Illinois -3 | Top | 67-62 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
5* Big Ten Game of the Year on Illinois -3
Extremely motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, and with a 6-game losing streak to Purdue also stoking the fire, expect Illinois to bounce back strong at home, where it is 12-2 on the season. Illinois has been a force to be reckoned with on its home floor where it is winning by an average of 10.4 points and has wins over Ohio State and Michigan State. Regulars remember that we played on Illinois on Jan. 31 following 3 straight conference defeats and watched the Fighting Illini upset Michigan State. In fact, Illinois is 7-0 ATS all-time under coach Weber when checking into a game off 3 straight losses to conference foes. The Illini have won by an average of 9.2 points in this situation. We'll lay the points. |
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02-15-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Houston Rockets +4 | Top | 95-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Rockets +4
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by losses to Oklahoma City in the season's first 2 meetings, expect the Rockets to bounce back strong at home, where they are 10-3 SU (9-4 ATS). The Rockets only lost by 3 points at home to the Thunder on Jan. 7. In fact, they have either won or lost by fewer than 4 points in 13 of the last 14 at home in this series. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. In addition, plays against road favorites that have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 50-18 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 3.7 points but have lost by an average of 1.2. Take Houston as it has an excellent chance to win this one outright. |
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02-14-12 | Youngstown State v. Wisconsin-Green Bay -4.5 | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
5* Horizon League Game of the Year on Wisconsin-Green Bay -4.5
This game is all about revenge for Wisconsin-Green Bay, who was embarrassed with a 30-point loss at Youngstown State on Jan. 22. Every 30-point loss doesn't sit well, but this one will especially have the Phoenix jacked up because they had won 5 in a row against the Penguins by an average of 11.8 points. Wisconsin-GB has won 9 in a row at home in this series with these wins coming by an average of 14 points. Each victory came by at least 8 points. It is also worth noting that the Phoenix are 11-1 ATS all-time when looking for revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 75 points or more under coach Wardle. Lay the points. |
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02-13-12 | Kansas v. Kansas State +4.5 | Top | 59-53 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Kansas State +4.5
Motivated by a loss at Texas Saturday, and further fueled by an embarrassing 18-point loss at Kansas on Jan. 4, expect the Wildcats to take care of business at home tonight. K-State is 10-2 at home on the season and those 2 losses came by just 2 and 3 points respectively. It is also worth noting that the Wildcats have a 16-point home win over Missouri, who beat the Jayhawks earlier this month. In addition, K-State won 84-68 in last season's home meeting against the Jayhawks, and that Kansas team was more polished that this year's squad. The Wildcats are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Jayhawks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. Also, the home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take K-State. |
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02-12-12 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Wright State +2.5 | Top | 46-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Wright State +2.5
Hungry to end a 3-game skid, and further fueled by an embarrassing 20-point loss at UW-Milwaukee last month, expect Wright State to continue its home dominance in the series Sunday afternoon. The Raiders have won 6 in a row at home against the Panthers with those 6 wins coming by an average of 12.0 points. The Raiders are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. It's also worth noting that Wright State is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games following an upset loss at home. The Panthers have lost 5 of their last 6 on the road and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite. Take Wright State. |
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02-11-12 | Duquesne v. St Bonaventure -5.5 | Top | 48-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
5* Atlantic 10 Game of the Year on St. Bonaventure -5.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road and an embarrassing 14-point defeat at Duquesne on Jan. 7, expect St. Bonaventure to roll at home this afternoon. The Bonnies have rattled off 7 straight home wins with those coming by an average of 18.9 points. It is also worth noting that each of those victories came by a minimum of 8 points. St. Bonnie has also won 3 in a row at home over the Dukes with those wins coming by an average of 8.7 points. The Bonnies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. The Dukes are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog and 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Lay the points. |
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02-10-12 | Dallas Mavericks -2 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | Top | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Mavs -2
The Mavs had won 18 of 19 against the T-Wolves from Jan. 2006-March 2011 while outscoring them by an average of 9.6 points before losing the first 2 meetings this season. They had also won 9 in a row at the Target Center before a 99-82 loss Jan. 1. Motivated by those 2 defeats, expect the reigning NBA champs to rise to the occasion this evening. This is a great spot for Dallas considering it is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. It is winning by an average score of 104.4 to 95.9 in this situation. The Mavericks are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 road games while the Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Minnesota, and the road team is 21-5 ATS in the last 26 meetings. We'll bet Dallas in this revenge spot. |
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02-09-12 | Houston Rockets v. Phoenix Suns -3.5 | Top | 96-89 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Suns -3.5
Phoenix is playing its best basketball of the season and has won 3 in a row as a result. It is playing with a lot of confidence right now and will be hungry to avenge Friday's embarrassing 18-point loss at Houston. This is a difficult spot for the Rockets, who just played and won in Portland last night. I don't think they'll give a team they just smoked enough focus as a result. Plus, Houston is expected to be without starting guard Kyle Lowry. Don't expect the offense to run as smoothly without the team's assist leader on the floor. The Suns are 4-0 in their last 4 at home in this series with those wins coming by an average of 6.5 points. Also, the Rockets are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog, 7-22 ATS in the last 29 meetings in this series and 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Phoenix. Take the Suns. |
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02-08-12 | Indiana Pacers v. Atlanta Hawks -3 | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Hawks -3
Off 3 straight losses and having already fallen to Indiana this season, Atlanta will be lacking no motivation tonight. Plus, it bodes well for us that the Pacers just played last night. The Pacers are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games when playing without a day of rest and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Also, Indiana is 4-14 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days since the beginning of last season. It has lost these games by an average of 10.6 points. In addition, the Hawks have won 8 in a row at home in this series by 16, 12, 14, 4, 11, 10, 14 and 15 points - an average margin of 12.0 points. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the Pacers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Atlanta. We'll take the Hawks. |
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02-07-12 | Phoenix Suns v. Milwaukee Bucks -7 | Top | 107-105 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks -7
The Bucks have lost back-to-back games since a 3-game winning streak that included wins over the Lakers and Heat. Motivated by those losses, and a 16-point defeat in Phoenix last month, expect them to bounce back strong tonight. Consider that Milwaukee is 19-8 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. The Bucks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Suns are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Bucks have had 2 full days of rest and preparation while the Suns just played last night. We'll bet the Bucks. |
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02-06-12 | Missouri v. Oklahoma +5 | Top | 71-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
5* Big 12 Game of the Month on Oklahoma +5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and an embarrassing 38-point loss at Missouri on Jan. 3, expect Oklahoma to leave it all on the floor tonight. This is a difficult spot for Mizzou, which is coming off an emotional victory over Kansas and has a big showdown with Baylor up next. As you might recall, the Tigers came out flat and lost by 7 points at Oklahoma State following a 1-point win over Baylor last month. I expect a similar letdown here following such a big win over the Jayhawks. Mizzou has won 2 of its last 3 on the road but both of those wins came by a single point. It's typically been tough sledding on the road in terms of the point spread for the Tigers, who are 18-40-1 ATS in their last 59 road games. It is also worth noting that the road team is 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. The Sooners have won 5 of the last 7 at home in the series and neither of those 2 defeats came by more than 4 points. Take Oklahoma. |
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02-04-12 | Buffalo v. Toledo +5 | Top | 72-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
5* MAC Game of the Year on Toledo +5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by 4 straight losses in the series, I like Toledo's chances of pulling off this upset. Buffalo has not been the same team on the road, where it has lost 4 of its last 6. It is worth noting that just one of those 2 wins in this stretch came by more than 2 points, and that was against a Northern Illinois squad that's 2-18. The Bulls have certainly struggled at Toledo, where they have lost 6 of the last 7 meetings by an average score of 78.0 to 63.0. The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 and 12-4 ATS in the last 16 overall meetings. It should also be noted that the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Toledo is 9-1 ATS in home games after 2 straight games of allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher since 1997. Buffalo is 1-9 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. It is also 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Witherspoon after allowing 60 points or less 3 straight games. It's losing by an average of 4.0 points in this spot. Take Toledo. |
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02-03-12 | Washington Wizards v. Toronto Raptors -4.5 | Top | 89-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Raptors -4.5
Motivated by back-to-back embarrassing losses to Atlanta and Boston, and further fueled by a 15-point loss at Washington last month, expect Toronto to turn in an inspired performance tonight. The home team has been the play in this series of late. It won each of the last 6 meetings. Toronto has won its 3 at home during this span by 5, 19 and 9 points. The Raptors also fit into an extremely profitable wagering situation. Consider that plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out to avenge a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, provided they are checking in off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, are 24-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 5.8 points and have won by an average of 13.1. In addition, Washington is 0-10 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons, losing these games by an average of 13.7 points. Take Toronto. |
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02-02-12 | Arizona St v. Stanford -14.5 | Top | 44-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Blowout Game of the Week on Stanford -14.5
Motivated by 3 consecutive losses on the road, expect Stanford to roll in its return home tonight. Arizona State has really struggled on the road in Pac-12 play where it has losses of 17, 17, 15 and 21 to Arizona, UCLA, Colorado and Utah respectively. The Sun Devils are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games. In addition, ASU is 0-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive Overs this season, 0-7 ATS after playing 2 consecutive home games this season and 0-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Stanford is 11-1 on its home floor where it is winning by an average of 14.9 points. I like it to roll by 20-plus in this motivated spot against a poor road team. We'll lay the points. |
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02-01-12 | Toronto Raptors +9.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 64-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Raptors +9.5
Motivated by Tuesday's embarrassing 100-77 loss to Atlanta, and further motivated by a 96-73 loss in Boston on Jan. 18, expect the Raptors to give the Celtics a game this evening. The fact Boston played last night also is very important. The aging Celtics won't be able to bounce back as well physically as the more youthful Raptors. Consider that the Celtics are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games when playing without a day of rest and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Celtics are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take Toronto and the points. |
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01-31-12 | New Jersey Nets +9.5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 99-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nets +9.5
The Nets had won back-to-back games on the road over Philadelphia and Cleveland before laying an egg at home against Toronto Sunday. Motivated by that loss, and a loss to Indiana on Jan. 2, expect the Nets to give the Pacers a game tonight. Indiana won the season's first meeting by 14 points but hit 13 of 21 from 3-point range in that game. Considering the Pacers are only averaging 4 3-point makes on 12 attempts per game, I don't see them going off from deep again. New Jersey has quietly won 2 of its last 3 and 4 of its last 7. It's a better team than it was when it saw Indiana in early January, and I believe we'll see that tonight. The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Pacers, meanwhile, are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. Also, the road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the points. |