Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-15-14 | Toledo -2.5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 77-98 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
5* MAC Tournament Game of the Year on Toledo -
The Toledo Rockets are clearly the better team, and this line does not do them justice. Toledo averages 79.9 points per game this season, and when playing on the road or a neutral court their offensive production has barely slowed down still averaging 77.6 points per game. They are up against a Western Michigan team that is averaging a mere 67.4 points per game on the road. These teams split there regular season games, but it is Toledo that won in the most recent meeting. The Rockets picked up an 11 point win just over two weeks ago, and a change to a neutral court will not be enough for the Broncos to narrow their margin of loss by enough points to cover this spread. Western Michigan is also coming off an overtime time in their last outing. Playing in a back-to-back is hard enough for college teams, but when the first half of that back-to-back went to overtime I just don't see how the Broncos will be able to physically keep pace with the Rockets. Toledo is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven neutral court games. They are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams that have won 60 percent or more of their games on the season. Toledo has been the better ball control team this season averaging just 10 turnovers per game to 14 turnovers per game from the Broncos. Toledo has covered three of their lat four games against the spread, and I like that trend to continue today. |
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03-14-14 | Ole Miss v. Georgia | Top | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
5* Conference Tournament Game of the Year on Georgia -
Ole Miss had to use a lot of energy rallying from an early 13-point deficit to beat in-state rival Mississippi State. I don't see the Rebels and those tired legs being able to hang with a talented and underrated Georgia team tonight. The Bulldogs are fresh off a full 5 days rest and will be out to make a statement. Georgia tied for 2nd in the SEC with a 12-6 record, yet are not even being talked about as an NCAA Tournament team. While Ole Miss comes in off back-to-back wins, they have not been playing all that great of late. They are just 5-7 since the start of February and four of those five losses came against teams who finished the year with a losing record. Georgia on the other hand is playing some of their best basketball. The Bulldogs are 8-2 over their last 10 games with the only two losses coming on the road against Tennessee and Arkansas. Georgia has been a covering machine. The Bulldogs are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 conference games and 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games overall. Ole Miss is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 following a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning record. |
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03-14-14 | Northwestern v. Michigan State -13 | Top | 51-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
5* Big Ten Game of the Year on Michigan State -
Northwestern is coming off a surprising win over Iowa in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament, but the magic stops here. The Wildcats put everything they had on the line in that game and I just don't see them having enough left in the tank to keep it close against a Michigan State team that is back to full strength and ready to prove they are the best team in the Big 10. Northwestern basically played just six players last night against the Hawkeyes, as Nikola Cerina played just 2 minutes. Even without their full lineup, Michigan State was able to beat the Wildcats rather easily in both regular season meetings. The Spartans won by 14-points at Northwestern and 15-points at home. With a healthy lineup and tired legs for the Wildcats, I could see this turning into a 20+ point blowout rather quickly. While Michigan State lost their final game of the regular season 67-69 at Ohio State, that sets up a very favorable system for the Spartans. Favorites of 10 to 19.5 points who have a winning record, are off a road cover where they lost outright and playing a team with a losing record are 65-29 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% system in favor of a Spartan cover! |
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03-14-14 | Richmond v. VCU -8.5 | Top | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
5* Atlantic 10 Tournament Game of the Year on VCU -
This is a perfect spot to jump on VCU. Richmond is playing undermanned right now with the injury to leading scorer Cedrick Lindsay. While the Spiders were able to come away with an impressive 76-64 win over Duquesne in their A-10 tournament opener, that didn't come as a huge surprise. Richmond beat Duquesne by 17-points on the road without Linsay back on Feb. 12. While the Spiders only lost by 6-points at home to VCU recently (March 6), the Rams didn't show up until the second half of that game. I look for the score to be a lot more lopsided this time around. VCU isn't going to take Richmond likely after almost losing to them. Another big key here is the Spiders are playing on no rest, while VCU is fresh off a 5-day layoff. That pressure defense that the Rams rely so much on should be at its finest and I expect it to lead to an easy double-digit win. Richmond is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 following a game where they covered the spread and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs a team that has won 60% or more of their games. VCU is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 overall and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning record. |
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03-14-14 | Florida State v. Virginia -7 | Top | 51-64 | Win | 100 | 3 h 9 m | Show |
5* No Doubt Rout of the Year on Virginia -
I don't think Florida State is worthy of playing in this quarterfinals matchup against Virginia, and the Cavaliers should have no problem picking up a double-digit win. These teams met twice during the regular season and the Cavaliers picked up a 12-point win in both of those games. Playing on a neutral court does not help the Seminoles since they could not even keep the game within single digits when playing at home. The Virginia Cavaliers have the No. 1 ranked scoring defense in the country. They have held opponents to a mere 55.4 points per game. Florida State is not a high scoring team to begin with averaging just 68 points per game when playing away from home. Virginia also enters this game as one of the hottest teams in the country having won 13 of its last 14 games. Florida State is a team that buckles under the pressure of playing a quality opponent. The Seminoles are 2-13 ATS versus teams that are outscoring opponents by eight or more points per game after 15 or more games in the season. The Cavaliers are outscoring opponents by an average of 10.9 points per game this year. Virginia is also well rested since they secured a first round bye in the tournament. They are 13-3 ATS when playing only their second game in a week this season. |
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03-13-14 | Wyoming v. UNLV -8 | Top | 67-71 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
5* Mountain West Tournament Game of the Year on UNLV -
This may be the Mountain West Tournament, but it is a home game for UNLV. There is not a lot of travel for the Rebels, while the Cowboys make the trek to Las Vegas as heavy underdogs. Wyoming is one of the most overrated teams in the conference. They average a mere 57.5 points per game when playing on the road or in a neutral court game, and they are facing a UNLV team that is averaging 72 points per game on the season. The Rebels are an outstanding team defensively. They have held opponents to just 65.1 points per game at home this season. Against this Cowboys team that struggles on the road they should easily improve on that number. The Cowboys will also be without Larry Nance who happens to be the team's leading scorer. The Cowboys would struggle against the Rebels with Nance, but without him this matchup will be a double-digit blowout. Wyoming is struggling coming into the conference tournament. They have lost four of their last five games straight up, and they have lost five of their last six games against the spread. I don't think the oddsmakers can set the bar high enough without Nance in the lineup for the Cowboys, so that is a trend that should continue today. Lay the points with the Rebels because they should win this game in a blowout. |
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03-13-14 | Utah State v. San Diego State -8 | Top | 39-73 | Win | 100 | 2 h 49 m | Show |
5* Conference Tournament No Brainer on San Diego State -
The Aztecs closed out the regular season on a 4-game winning streak, including a thrilling 51-48 come from behind win over New Mexico in the finale to give them the outright Mountain West title. I look for No. 8 ranked San Diego State to carry over that momentum with a convincing win over Utah State. While this will be the Aztecs first game of the Mountain West Tournament, the Aggies had to play Colorado State yesterday. No rest is bad news for Utah State against a top notch team like San Diego State. The Aztecs won both meetings during the regular season, winning 74-69 on the road and 60-45 at home. San Diego State should have no trouble winning here by double-digits, so don't worry about the 8-point spread. While the Aggies come in having won three straight, they are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games off 3 or more consecutive wins against conference opponents. Utah State is also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games versus good defensive teams that are holding opponents to 39% or worse from the field. San Diego State is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing only their 2nd game in a week, 16-7 ATS in their last 23 after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games after 5 straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers. |
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03-13-14 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh -8.5 | Top | 55-84 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
5* ACC Tournament Game of the Year on Pitt -
The Pitt Panthers might be the biggest sleeper in the ACC and I don't think they will have any problem getting past Wake Forest today. This is a neutral court matchup which plays heavily in the Panthers favor since the Demon Deacons are 3-11 when playing away from home this season. Against conference opponents Wake Forest has averaged a mere 66.4 points per game, and when playing on the road or a neutral court that average dips down to 65.9 points per game. Pittsburgh has one of the best defenses in the conference. They have held opponents to a mere 62.5 points per game this season. The team ranks 23rd in the country in scoring defense. On the offensive end of the court Pitt should have no problem putting up a big number. The Demon Deacons have surrendered 76.5 points per game on the road this season. This matchup fits into a system to play on neutral court favorites like Pitt after one or more consecutive overs and their opponent has gone over the total three or more consecutive times. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have undervalued the favorite. It has resulted in a 121-68 (64%) record against the spread. When the favorite is coming off two or more consecutive overs the system tightens up to 64-31 (67%) against the spread. |
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03-12-14 | New York Knicks -4.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 116-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
5* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Year on Knicks -
This matchup has blowout written all over it. The New York Knicks are playing for a season best fifth consecutive win. Almost surprisingly, the Knicks are just 3.5 games back on Atlanta for the eighth and final seed in the playoffs. With the season winding down this is a motivated team that will be hungry for a win against a Boston team that is not far behind them in the conference standings. Boston is playing in a tough spot after losing on the road just last night to Indiana. Now they have to play in a tough back-to-back situation against a red hot and well rested Knicks team. A bad team like the Celtics usually does not fare well in these situations. Add in the fact that New York is averaging 108.2 points per game over its last five games while Boston is allowing 99.8 points per game during that stretch and we have a blowout in the making. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Celtics. You should fade home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Boston when they are revenging a loss against their opponent, and they are coming off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This system finds home underdogs the oddsmakers have overvalued. It has resulted in a 64-27 (70%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-11-14 | Texas-San Antonio +5.5 v. East Carolina | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
5* Conference USA Tournament Game of the Year on UTSA +
The Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners did not have a great season overall, but I still think they are a n easy call in this matchup with one of the conference's worst teams, East Carolina. The Roadrunners biggest problem this season was a defense that struggled to slow opponents down. During the final stretch of the regular season they seemed to have things back on track defensively. The team allowed over 76 points per game on the season, but over their last five games they held opponents to a mere 71.4 points per game. East Carolina averages just 70.3 points per game when playing away from home. The defense has surrendered 72.8 points per game in those games. The Pirates only faced the Roadrunners once this season and that game was played at East Carolina. On a neutral court UTSA should have no problem narrowing the margin of defeat, and I even expect the Roadrunners to have a good chance at winning this game in the final seconds. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the UTSA Roadrunners. You should play against teams like East Carolina on a neutral court when they have gone under the total by 42 points or more in their last seven games and they have a winning record on the season and are playing a team with a losing record. This system has a 50-15 (77%) record against the spread. |
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03-10-14 | Washington Wizards +7 v. Miami Heat | Top | 90-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
5* Southeast Division Game of the Month on Wizards +
The Miami Heat are playing in a very tough spot tonight. First of all, the Heat have lost three consecutive games coming into this matchup. The Heat just played yesterday in Chicago in a losing effort against the Bulls. Now they are tasked with returning home to host the Wizards in a back-to-back situation when Washington is coming into this game with a day of rest. Washington is one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now. The Wizards have won eight of their last night games, including five consecutive on the road. Washington is averaging 115.6 points per game over their last five games, and they are averaging 104.7 points per game against division opponents. The defense has really stepped up in those division games, allowing a mere 96 points per game. You should play against home teams like Miami when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points and they are playing on back-to-back days. This system is 99-50 (66%) against the spread over the last five seasons. You should also play on road teams like Washington when they are averaging 98 to 102 points per game and are facing a defense allowing the same number of points aver 42 or more games, and that road team has scored 100 points or more in two straight games. This system is 48-17 (74%) against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-08-14 | Washington Wizards -8.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 114-107 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference Game of the Year on Wizards -
Milwaukee is the worst team in the league. They have allowed opponents 102.3 points per game this season, while the offense has averaged a mere 92.8 points per game when playing at home. Washington is a very good team with an explosive offense, and the Wizards have no business being a single-digit favorite. Washington has averaged 115.8 points per game over their last five games and they will have no problem picking up a double-digit win today. The Bucks come into this matchup with a 7-25 straight up record at home, and a 12-20 ATS record in those games. Washington on the other hand has been a great team to back on the road this season with a 22-8 ATS record. Washington is also the hot team coming into this matchup. The Wizards have won seven of their last eight games, posting a 6-2 record against the spread. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Bucks. You should play against home underdogs like Milwaukee when they have lost 15 or more of their last 20 games and they have won 25 percent of their games or less on the season, and they are facing a team with a winning record. This system has an 80-38 (68%) ATS record over the last five seasons. |
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03-08-14 | Utah v. Stanford -4.5 | Top | 60-61 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
5* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford -
This matchup has blowout written all over it. Utah has been horrible on the road this season posting a 2-7 record. They are facing a very underrated Stanford team that averages 78 points per game at home. The Cardinal are 11-4 in home games, which includes a 10-3 record against the spread. Stanford also has a very underrated defense. The Cardinal have held opponents to a mere 66.2 points per game at home this season. Stanford is also 8-2 ATS in home games against poor pressure defensive teams that are forcing less than 14 turnovers per game. Utah has forced an average of 12 turnovers per game on the road this season. The Utes have some artificially inflated shooting statistics thanks to a very soft schedule. That should not slow the Cardinal down since they have a 63-42 ATS record when facing teams that are making 48% or more of their shot attempts. Utah may average 49.6 percent from the field overall this season, but when playing on the road that number dips down to 41.7 percent shooting. The Utes also go from averaging 77.8 points per game to 64.9 points per game on the road. |
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03-06-14 | USC-Upstate +7.5 v. Mercer | Top | 75-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
5* Atlantic Sun Game of the Year on USC Upstate +
In the Spartans two games against Mercer they lost 60-62 in overtime on the road, and embarrassed the Bears 80-61 at home. Upstate might be the most underrated team in the Atlantic Sun Conference, and their is simply no reason they should be such a large underdog in this matchup. Six of the Spartans seven conference losses came by six-points or less. USC Upstate is averaging 73.7 points per game. The Spartans have already shown us they can score on Mercer since they put up 80 points the last time these teams met. Mercer on the other hand has put up just 60 and 62 points against the Spartans underrated defense. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Spartans. You should play on road teams like USC Upstate when they are coming off two straight wins by six points or less, and they are facing an opponent that scored 85 points or more in their previous game. This system identifies matchups where the road team has been undervalued, and it has resulted in a 55-26 (68%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-01-14 | Tennessee St. +13.5 v. Eastern Kentucky | Top | 66-70 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
5* Ohio Valley Game of the Year on Tennessee State +
These teams may have vastly different records, but the Tigers have been playing just as well as the Colonels lately. Tennessee State has won its last two meetings, including a road win over Morehead State in their last outing. It is also worth nothing that the Tigers were listed as a double-digit underdog in that game. The Tigers have been continuously undervalued by the oddsmakers, which has led to a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Colonels are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a double-digit favorite. The biggest weakness for Eastern Kentucky this year has been a defense that is allowing a lot of uncontested shots. That has resulted in opponents making 48.4 percent of their attempts. The Colonels are allowing 70.1 points per game, and it will be extremely difficult to win by a double-digit margin with the defense giving up as many points as they have. Tennessee State has proved to be a great team to back on the road this season. They are 10-4 ATS in road games, while Eastern Kentucky is just 2-5 ATS at home. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against Eastern Kentucky. You should fade teams like the Colonels when they are a home favorite of 10 points or more and have won 60 to 80 percent of their games on the season, and they are facing an opponent that has won 20 percent of their games or less. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have overvalued the home team and it has led to a 279-182 (61%) record against the spread. |
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02-28-14 | Golden State Warriors -5.5 v. New York Knicks | Top | 126-103 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
5* Blowout Game of the Week on Warriors -
The New York Knicks are playing in an incredibly difficult spot tonight when they play host to the Golden State Warriors. New York was crushed last night by the Miami Heat, now they have to travel back home for the second half of a back-to-back to take on one of the hottest teams in the league. The Golden State Warriors have won four of their last five games coming into this matchup. The Knicks look like a team that has thrown in the towel on their season. They have lost 10 of their last 12 games, and they have surrendered 107 points per game over their last five games. The Warriors on the other hand have stepped things up on the defensive end of the court, allowing a mere 95.2 points per game over their last five games. Golden State has had no problem scoring this season with their 103 point per game scoring average, and against a soft defense like the Knicks that number can only get better tonight. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Golden State when they are an excellent offensive team averaging 102 points per game or more, and they are playing against a poor defensive team that is allowing 98 to 102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system has cashed in a 56-23 (71%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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02-27-14 | Duquesne +15 v. St. Louis | Top | 71-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
5* Atlantic 10 Game of the Week on Duquesne +
This is way too many points for an underrated team like Duquesne to be receiving. The Dukes are averaging 73.5 points per game this season, which is more than the Billikens have averaged on their home court. St Louis has struggled to meet the oddsmakers absurdly high expectations recently, and I expect that to be the case again today. The Billikens have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games. St Louis will have an edge defensively, but I don't think it is enough to cover such a large spread. Six of the Billikens last eight games have been decided by a single-digit margin, and the competition does not get any easier against the Dukes tonight. Duquesne has a 7-2 ATS record when playing on the road, and they are 8-4 ATS against conference opponents this season. This matchup fits into a system to play against home favorites of 10 points or more after 10 or more consecutive wins. The system has a 170-123 (58%) ATS record over the last five seasons. You should also play on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Duquesne when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 75 or more points and are coming off two covers where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This system is 49-17 (71%) against the spread. |
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02-27-14 | UNC-Charlotte +2.5 v. East Carolina | Top | 68-75 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
5* C-USA Game of the Month on Charlotte +
The wrong team is favored in this Conference USA showdown. The Charlotte 49ers are a much better team than their 14-12 record indicates, and I think we are getting a lot of value on today's line because of their recent slump. The East Carolina Pirates are the perfect opponent to end that recent slide. The Pirates are a not a team that gains a lot of benefit when playing at home. In fact, they have a 3-6 record against the spread in those games. They are not getting a big boost on the offensive end of the court, averaging 1.5 points per game more at home than they do overall. The Pirates are getting way too much credit because of their recent performances against Louisiana Tech and Rice. Tech was without their best player, and Rice is the worst team in the conference, so those wins should not buy a lot of credibility. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the 49ers. You should play on road underdogs like Charlotte when they have failed to cover the spread in five or more of their last seven games, and they are facing an opponent that has covered the spread in four of their last five games. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have a tendency to overcompensate on the lines. It has resulted in a 164-95 (63%) ATS record over the last five seasons. |
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02-26-14 | Golden State Warriors -3 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 83-103 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Golden State Warriors -
The Chicago Bulls are in a tough spot tonight after playing on the road against Atlanta yesterday. This will be Chicago's third game in the last four days. Typically the first thing to go for a tired team is its defense, and unfortunately for Chicago, the defense is the only thing that has allowed them to remain competitive this season. Golden State has been playing extremely well recently. The Warriors have won five of their last six games with the only loss during that stretch coming by a single point against Miami. Over their last five games the Warriors have averaged 102 points per game, while surrendering a mere 96.8 points per game. Golden State's defense should have no problem shutting down this Bulls team that averages just 92.8 points per game. This matchup fits into a system to fade Chicago. You should play against home teams when the line is three points or less and they are revenging a loss against their opponent, and they are coming off a road win. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers have overvalued, and it has resulted in a 90-48 (65%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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02-25-14 | San Jose State +21.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 64-90 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
5* Mountain West Game of the Month on San Jose State +
San Diego State is one of the most overrated teams in the country. Their win over Kansas in the first half of the season has earned them far more credit than they are worthy of. The Aztecs are lucky to have a three loss season. They came dangerously close to losing against Utah State in January, and they have recently played several games that were much closer than the final score would indicate. San Jose State is typically a very good ball control team. They average just 13 turnovers per game on the season. In the first meeting of the season between these teams they had an uncharacteristically poor night of turnovers. While a small portion of that can be credited to San Diego State's defense, I think the majority of it was an anomaly. San Diego State typically only forces an average of 14 turnovers per game, and the Spartans posted 18 turnovers in that matchup. With less turnovers in this second meeting of the season San Jose State should easily be able to decrease their margin of loss to a number under 20 points. This matchup fits into a profitable system backing the Spartans. You should play on road underdogs of 20 points or more like San Jose State when they are revenging a home loss of 10 points or more and have a losing record on the season. This system identifies teams being undervalued by the oddsmakers because of their record, and it has resulted in a 54-22 (71%) ATS record over the last five seasons. |
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02-24-14 | Dallas Mavericks -3.5 v. New York Knicks | Top | 110-108 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
5* Non-Conference Game of the Month on Dallas Mavericks -
The New York Knicks look like a team that has thrown in the towel on their season. They have lost eight of their last 10 games, and have failed to cover the spread in seven of those 10 matchups. New York has surrendered 106.2 points per game over its last five games which is very telling about their lack of effort recently. The Mavericks are one of the hottest teams in the league right now having won eight of their last 10 games. They are facing a Knicks team that is 2-10 ATS in home games when facing a non-conference opponent this season. The Knicks are also 9-20 ATS as an underdog, and 1-9 ATS as a home underdog this year. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have proved to be a great team to back when playing on the road. They are 20-10 ATS, and should easily improve on that number today. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Mavericks. You should play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Dallas when they are an excellent offensive team averaging 102 points per game or more and they are playing a poor defensive team that has surrendered 98-102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 55-23 (71%) against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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02-22-14 | La Salle +4 v. Richmond | Top | 49-62 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
5* Atlantic 10 Game of the Month on La Salle +
The Explorers have played a tough stretch of games recently, and I think that has them coming into this matchup against Richmond a little underrated. La Salle is a much better team than their record indicates, and I like them to play a great game against the Spiders. Richmond has been extremely inconsistent this season and they have been overvalued by the oddsmakers when playing at home leading to a losing record against the spread. Statistically this matchup should be very close. The Explorers are averaging 68.5 points per game while the Spiders are averaging 69.4 points per game. Defensively La Salle has played extremely well on the road, allowing a mere 66.8 points per game. Richmond is allowing 66 points per game overall this season. This game could go either way, but it will almost certainly be close and that means the value is with La Salle. Richmond is a team that relies heavily on their ability to win the turnover margin. They are 11-22 ATS against good ball handling teams that are committing less than 14 turnovers per game. The Spiders are not a good ball movement team, and I think that plays into La Salle's favor. The Explorers are 23-9 ATS against poor passing teams that are averaging less than 12 assists per game after 15 or more games. |
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02-19-14 | Orlando Magic v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 196 | Top | 93-101 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Magic/Cavaliers OVER
This matchup features two very poor defensive teams, and two offenses that have the ability to catch fire. The value in this matchup is clearly going to be on the over. Orlando is surrendering 102.3 points per game on the road this season. The Cavaliers have allowed an average of 102 points per game overall. Neither of these teams has done a lot of scoring this year, and I think that is the biggest reason for such a low total. That will change tonight since the competition is soft both ways. For a tired team the first thing to go is usually the defense. The Cavaliers are playing in the second half of a back-to-back situation. I expect their defense to be even worse than normal for this game. Orlando is also playing in a back-to-back after losing on the road against Milwaukee last night in a game they surrendered 104 points. The Cavaliers have a history of going over the total against Southeast division teams. The over has a 5-1 record in their last six games against that division, and it is 11-3 in Cleveland's last 14 games against a team with a losing record. For Orlando, the over is 43-26 the last three seasons when they are revenging a road loss to their opponent. With two soft defenses playing in a tough back-to-back situation, I expect to see a lot of points going on the board tonight. |
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02-13-14 | Loyola Marymount +7.5 v. Portland | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
5* West Coast Conf. Game of the Month on Loyola-Marymount +
This is a lot of points for the Lions to receive in what is a very even matchup. The last time these teams met it was Loyola-Marymount that was the favorite. The Lions may have lost that game, but I think they were a little unlucky. Portland does not have a good defense. The Pilots have surrendered 73.6 points per game this season. In that first meeting the Lions had an uncharacteristically bad shooting night, making a mere 31.8 percent of their attempts. I don't credit that win to a big defensive performance, instead it should be considered an anomaly that is unlikely to take place again. Loyola-Marymount should have no problem scoring points today. They are averaging 74.7 points per game on the season, making 44.5 percent of their shot attempts. The Lions are a decent rebounding team, and they have been a decent ball control team. If they continue to rebound well and avoid turnovers tonight, there is no reason the Lions cannot leave Portland with a win under their belts. Even with an average performance they should have no problem sticking to within seven points or less. The oddsmakers have a history of overvaluing the Pilots in certain situations. For instance, Portland is 13-29 against the spread in home games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games. The Pilots are also 5-16 ATS after playing three consecutive games as a road underdog. Portland did not have a good road trip, losing two of those three games. The Pilots have now lost three of their last four games, and I like the Lions to come out and give them a scare tonight. |
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02-12-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Los Angeles Clippers -8 | Top | 117-122 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA First Half Game of the Year on Clippers -
The Portland Trailblazers are falling apart, and I think they are already looking forward to regrouping during the All-Star break. The Blazers have lost five of their last eight games, and they have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 12 games. Portland's defense has always been soft, but they have been saved by an offense averaging close to 108 points per game. They seem to have lost the scoring touch, failing to reach triple digits in five of their last eight games. The Clippers are coming off impressive back-to-back wins at home. They have had no problem scoring points recently, averaging 114 points per game over their last five games. The Clippers have been dangerously good at home all season, posting a 22-4 record. With Portland struggling like they have been, I just don't see how the Blazers can come into Los Angeles and play a close game against one of the best teams in the league. This matchup fits into a profitable system backing the Clippers. You should play on a team averaging 102 points per game or more like Los Angeles when they have scored 100 points or more in four straight games, and they are playing a horrible defensive team that is allowing over 102 points per game on the season. This system has a 99-62 (62%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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02-12-14 | James Madison +8 v. Delaware | Top | 65-81 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
5* Road Dog of the Month on James Madison +
There is a lot of value on James Madison as such a large underdog since they will have Andre Nation back in the lineup. Nation is the leading scorer for the Dukes, averaging 16.6 points per game. He was also the team leader in rebounds with 5.3 per game. With Nation on the court this team should play with a much higher intensity level, and I even think they will have a chance to pull off the upset in this game. The Dukes have been a solid team defensively this season. They are holding opponents to a mere 67.8 points per game. Delaware on the other hand has surrendered an average of 76 points per game. The Blue Hens have yet to lose a Colonial Conference game, and now signs are pointing to the oddsmakers beginning to overvalue the team. Delaware has lost two of its last three games against the spread, and they have come close to being upset several times in recent weeks. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on road teams that average 63 points per game or less when they are playing against a poor defensive team allowing 74-78 points per game, after playing a game where both teams scored 65 or less points. This system is 47-20 (70%) against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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02-08-14 | Tulsa -8 v. Rice | Top | 66-56 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
5* CBB Game of the Year on Tulsa -
This matchup should be a blowout win for the Golden Hurricane. Rice has simply fallen apart in C-USA play this year, and they are severely outmatched by Tulsa. The Golden Hurricanes are averaging 73.4 points per game this season, and they should have no problem putting up a big number against the Owls soft defense. Rice has surrendered 72.9 points per game against conference opponents, and 73.8 points per game over their last five games. The advantages for Tulsa don't end in scoring. They have a significant rebounding advantage too. Rice comes into this matchup averaging 33 rebounds per game with only six coming on the offensive glass. They are -4 in rebounding margin this season. The Owls are also slightly more turnover prone than the Golden Hurricanes. Tulsa has been a great ball control team averaging just 11 turnovers per game. You should play on road favorites like Tulsa when they are making 42.5 to 45 percent of their shot attempts and are facing a poor shooting team making 40 to 42.5 percent of their attempts after 15 or more games, and that road team is coming off a poor three point shooting performance making 20 percent or less of their attempts. This system identifies teams being undervalued by the oddsmakers. It has resulted in a 55-21 (72%) ATS record over the last five seasons. |
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02-07-14 | Yale -1 v. Dartmouth | Top | 67-54 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
5* Ivy League Game of the Month on Yale -
The Yale Bulldogs are the hot team coming into this matchup. They have won four of their last five games, and I see no reason why they can't pick up a road win over Dartmouth tonight. Statistically these teams are fairly even, but I think it is the Bulldogs that have the advantage tonight. They are facing a Big Green team that will be without one of its best players. Gabas Maldunas is out with a season ending ACL injury. The Big Green have played well without their leading scorer in their past two games, but the competition has not been that tough. I think Dartmouth's two wins in its last two games has the oddsmakers over adjusting tonight. Yale has one of the best conference records in the Ivy League, and with Maldunas gone they should have no problem dominating this game. Maldunas was not only Dartmouth's leading scorer, we was also the team's leader in rebounds per game so his production is going to be missed. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Bulldogs. You should play on road teams as a favorite or pick like Yale when they have been beaten by the spread by 18 or more points in their last three games, but they have won 45 to 55 percent of their games on the season. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have undervalued the road team and it has resulted in a 43-20 (68%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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02-05-14 | Wyoming v. New Mexico -10.5 | Top | 61-66 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
5*
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02-05-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Houston Rockets -7.5 | Top | 108-122 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
5* Western Conference Blowout of the Month on Rockets -
The Phoenix Suns are playing in a tough back-to-back situation after losing at home last night to the Chicago Bulls. Now they are traveling to Houston where they will face a Rockets team that is looking for its fourth consecutive win. Houston is playing on three days of rest, so they should be well prepared to face the Suns. The Rockets have been a very dangerous team on their home court. They have a 20-7 record, and are averaging 105.7 points per game for their fans. They have the luxury of facing a very soft defense in this matchup. The Suns are allowing 101.3 points per game this season, and playing in a back-to-back situation against an outstanding offensive team like Houston makes this matchup scream blowout. This game fits into a very profitable system backing the Rockets. You should play on home teams like Houston when they are averaging 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers per game, and they are facing an average pressure defense that has forced 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system has a 97-60 (62%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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02-03-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Washington Wizards OVER 205.5 | Top | 90-100 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
5* NBA Total of the Week on Blazers/Wizards OVER
The Portland Trailblazers are one of the highest scoring teams in the league this season. They are averaging 108.3 points per game overall, and when playing on the road that number increases to 108.7 points per game. They are also a very soft defensive team that has allowed 105.1 points per game on the road. Their high scoring and poor defensive play are a big reason the over is such an easy call in this matchup with the Wizards. Washington comes into this matchup averaging just over 100 points per game at home. I think they have a lot of potential to exceed there scoring average since they will be facing a soft defense in this game. Portland is allowing 103.4 points per game overall against opponents whose scoring average is 100.8 points per game. When the Trailblazers are playing on the road that number gets even worse. The over is 20-6 in Portland's road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots per game over the last 2 seasons. The over is also 13-3 in Washington's home games against good teams that are outscoring opponents by three or more points per game. These two angles combined for a 33-9 (79%) record in favor of the over. |
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02-02-14 | Oakland +2 v. Wisc-Milwaukee | Top | 64-86 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
5* Horizon League Game of the Year on Oakland +
This is a revenge game for the Oakland Golden Grizzlies after losing to the Milwaukee Panthers earlier this month. Oakland is an easy call in this rematch since they dominated the offensive glass and turnover margin in that first meeting of the season. The Panthers had 17 turnovers in that first game to just nine from Oakland. The Grizzlies also suffered from an uncharacteristically poor shooting performance, and it seems unlikely that will take place again. The Golden Grizzlies are averaging 74 points per game this season. If not for shooting 32 percent from the field in the first meeting of the season I think the Grizzlies were more than capable of putting up over 80 points on this soft Panthers defense. They had 68 shot attempts in that game to just 54 from Milwaukee. The Panthers have allowed an average of 73.1 points per game at home so I don't think they are getting a lot of benefit from home court advantage. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Golden Grizzlies. You should play on an underdog like Oakland when it is revenging a straight up loss as a favorite against an opponent, when that opponent is coming off an upset win as an underdog over a conference rival in their previous game. This system has cashed in a 67-33 (67%) record against the spread. |
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02-01-14 | Drexel +3.5 v. Towson | Top | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
5* Colonial Game of the Month on Drexel +
I don't put a lot of stock in the first meeting of the season between these teams. Drexel had an uncharacteristically poor shooting performance in that game. The Dragons dominated Towson in shot attempts and rebounds, but shooting 31.9 percent from the field took away any chance they had to win that game. Its very unlikely that will take place again, so I think we are getting a lot of value with the better team playing as an underdog in this second meeting of the season. Drexel has been a great team to back on the road this year with an 8-4 ATS record. I don't think Towson is as good as their 10-1 home record would indicate. The Tigers have played an incredibly soft schedule this season, and it has artificially inflated their offensive and defensive statistics. Drexel on the other hand has played a tough schedule. The Dragons opponents average 72.2 points per game, yet Drexel has surrendered just 69.6 points per game when playing on the road. Drexel is 33-15 ATS when revenging a home loss against an opponent. Towson on the other hand comes into this game with a 3-10 ATS record in their last 13 home games against a team that has a winning record on the road. Drexel is a much better team than they are getting credit for. They had an extra 25 shot attempts over Towson State in the first meeting of the season, so even if they only slightly improve their shooting percentage in this matchup the Dragons should have no problem picking up a win. |
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01-31-14 | Pennsylvania +2.5 v. Dartmouth | Top | 58-67 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
5* Ivy League Game of the Year on Penn +
The wrong team is favored in this game since Dartmouth will be without its best player. Gabas Maldunas is out for the season with an ACL injury, and he is Dartmouth's leading scorer this season. You can see the impact Maldunas has on the team by looking at Dartmouth's performance against Harvard. They lost on the road by 16 points with Maldunas in the lineup and lost by 30 points at home without him. Pennsylvania is a much better team than their record would indicate. They may be 4-11 overall this season, but the non-conference schedule has been incredibly tough. Dartmouth on the other hand has played an incredibly soft schedule this year, and I don't think the Big Green will be able to compete with Penn in this game. The Quakers are 1-0 against Ivy League opponents, while Dartmouth has lost five consecutive games including a 0-2 record against Ivy League teams. The Big Green are averaging just 51.8 points per game during that five game stretch. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Quakers. You should play on underdogs coming off a win of 15 points or more when they are facing an opponent that is coming off a blowout loss of 20 points or more. This system identifies teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 255-164 (61%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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01-30-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors -5.5 | Top | 92-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
5* Pacific Division Game of the Year on Warriors -
This game has blowout written all over it. Golden State has played extremely well against division opponents this season. They have a 6-3 record, and the Warriors have the luxury of playing host in this matchup with the Clippers. Golden State is averaging 104.8 points per game at home this season, and they should score at will against a Clippers defense that has surrendered 103.9 points per game against division opponents. The rest profile also favors Golden State in this matchup. They are coming off a day of rest as they prepare for their fifth consecutive home game. The Clippers have had a crazy schedule playing seven straight on the road before returning home last night to face Washington. Now they are playing in a back-to-back situation as they head north to face the Warriors tonight. This will be the Clippers fifth game in the past seven days. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on home teams like Golden State after 42 or more games in the season when they are an average ball handling team committing 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers versus an average pressure defense that is forcing 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers per game. This matchup identifies home teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 94-59 (61%) record against the spread. |
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01-30-14 | Tennessee St. +6.5 v. Tennessee Tech | Top | 81-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
5* Ohio Valley Game of the Month on Tennessee State +
Tennessee State may not have a great overall record, but they are a much better team than they are getting credit for. This matchup has a lot of upset potential, and I like the Tigers to play a great game against their in-state conference rival. Tennessee Tech picked up a win in the first meeting of the season between these teams, but it was only by four points. The Tigers had a poor shooting performance in that game, but we can expect a much better showing in the second meeting of the season between these teams. Tennessee State played Wichita State to 14 points on the road, and lost by just five points on the road against Auburn. This is a young team that has shown a lot of improvement each week. They don't have any seniors, so everyone on the team will be fighting for a position on next year's team. There will be no packing it in for the Tigers this season, and they will have the revenge factor on their side in this matchup. Tennessee Tech has been given too much credit from the oddsmakers when playing at home. The Golden Eagles have a 2-3 record against the spread at home, and they are 1-4 ATS overall in their last five games. Tennessee State on the other hand has a 7-4 ATS record on the road, and a winning record of 10-8 ATS overall this season. This is a big rivalry game for these schools, and it is one the Tigers hold the advantage. They are 3-2 both straight up and against the spread over the last three seasons, and I expect them to improve on those numbers today. |
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01-29-14 | Philadelphia 76ers +4 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 95-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference Game of the Month on 76ers +
The wrong team appears to be favored in this game. Boston is playing in a tough back-to-back situation after getting blown out last night on the road against New York. Philadelphia on the other hand is coming into this matchup with a day of rest. The 76ers offense gives them a big advantage in this game. They are averaging 101.4 points per game against division opponents, while Boston comes into this matchup averaging a mere 91.7 points in division games. The Celtics are struggling just like the 76ers right now, and with the rest profiles favoring Philadelphia it looks like they catch the first break. Boston has lost four of its last five games, scoring a mere 89.8 points per game while allowing over 100 points per game during that stretch. The 76ers might also be 1-4 in their last five, but it has not been from a lack of offense. They are scoring 101.6 points per game during their last five games. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the 76ers. You should play on road teams like Philadelphia after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games when they are averaging 98 to 102 points per game, and they are playing a poor defensive team that is allowing 98 to 102 points per game. This system is 80-26 (76%) against the spread over the last five seasons. Boston has not done a good job of protecting their home court, and playing without rest makes Philadelphia an easy call in this game. |
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01-27-14 | Sacramento Kings v. Utah Jazz -6 | Top | 99-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
5* Vegas Insider of the Month on Utah Jazz -
The Sacramento Kings have not played well when they are completely healthy, so I do not like their chances tonight when they will try to avoid a fourth straight loss. The Kings will be visiting the Utah Jazz, and things don't look good since both DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay are listed as doubtful for this matchup. Sacramento already struggles in road games with a 6-13 record and without Cousins and Gay the Utah Jazz should win this game in a blowout. Utah will have no problem scoring points as they face one of the league's worst defenses. The Kings have surrendered 106.7 points per game on the road this season. Over its last five games Sacramento has allowed 113 points per game. That puts them in a tough spot tonight against a Jazz team that has a 6-2 record at home in their last eight games. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Jazz. You should play against road teams like Sacramento when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points and they are a bad team that has won 25 to 40 percent of its games on the season playing another team with a losing record. This system is 48-18 (73%) against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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01-25-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Denver Nuggets +2.5 | Top | 96-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
5* Bailout Game of the Month on Nuggets +
Denver is playing in the perfect spot to pull off an upset over Indiana. The Pacers are playing their fourth consecutive road game, and their fourth game in the last seven days. That is a lot of travel, and the fact that Indiana is also playing in a back-to-back situation adds even more value to the Nuggets. With the Nuggets playing the host role in this matchup they are an easy call tonight. I expect the wear and tear of Indiana's road trip to catch up with them tonight. The Nuggets are a very high scoring and uptempo team, and combined with the altitude and facing a tired team like the Pacers that gives them a big advantage in this matchup. Denver averages 103.4 points per game and they are poised to put up another big number today. Over their last five games the Pacers have surrendered an average of 102 points per game. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Pacers. You should play against a team like Indiana when they average 98 to 102 points per game against a team allowing 102 points per game or more when they are coming off a matchup with a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight games. This system identifies potentially tired defenses and has resulted in a 72-35 (67%) record against the spread. |
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01-25-14 | Northern Iowa -5.5 v. Loyola-Chicago | Top | 87-93 | Loss | -106 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
5* Missouri Valley Game of the Month on Northern Iowa -
The Panthers are clearly the better team in this matchup, and I expect them to make easy work of the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers. The Panthers have a better record than the Ramblers, and the strength of their schedule has been a lot more difficult. Northern Iowa has faced three teams that have been ranked in the top 10 at some point in the season. The Panthers picked up an 11 point win against VCU, and took Iowa State to overtime this year. Statistically the Northern Iowa has a huge advantage in this matchup. It is averaging 72.3 points per game to just 66.4 points per game from the Ramblers. UNI has been an excellent ball control team committing just 11 turnovers per game, and they have a defense that has held opponents to 68.4 points per game. While their scoring defense may not stand out as being above average, when you consider the schedule the Panthers have faced it is a very impressive number. Their opponents have averaged over 70 points per game prior to facing the Panthers. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Northern Iowa. You should play on road favorites like the Panthers when they have been beaten by the spread by 18 or more points combined in their last three games, and they have won 45 to 55 percent of their games on the season. This system identifies teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 41-16 (72%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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01-24-14 | Washington Wizards v. Phoenix Suns OVER 207 | Top | 101-95 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Wizards/Suns OVER 207
This total is set far too low given how well these teams have been playing on offense recently. Over their last five games the Wizards are averaging 105.2 points per game. The Suns have also been on a scoring binge averaging 113 points per game over their last five games. These teams have an 11-3 record in favor of the over in their last 14 games combined. Both offenses are playing great right now, but both of these defenses have been horrible. Washington has surrendered 101.2 points per game over their last five games, and I think that number will only get worse against a high scoring team like the Suns. Phoenix has had a notoriously bad defense all season, but somehow they have managed to play worse than average recently allowing 105 points per game over their last five games. The over is 13-2 in the Suns last 15 home games against opponents who attempt 18 or more three point shots per game. The over is also 13-5 when the Suns are playing against a team with a losing record this season. You should play the over when the total is 200 points or more and the road team is coming off a loss by three points or less and their opponent has scored 100 points or more in four straight games. The over has a 54-23 (70%) record in this situation. |
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01-22-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -6 | Top | 111-105 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
5* Blowout Game of the Month on Spurs -
The Thunder have played a brutal schedule recently, and it will catch up with them today against the Spurs. Oklahoma City is playing in a back-to-back situation after making a late comeback last night against Portland. It was very obvious that the wear and tear of their recent schedule is catching up with them. The Thunder are now playing their fifth game in the past seven days. The Spurs on the other hand are coming into this matchup playing on two days of rest, and have the benefit of home court advantage. San Antonio has won seven of their last eight games. They are one of the toughest home teams in the league, and I don't see the Thunder keeping pace with their high scoring offense in this game. The Spurs are averaging 105.3 points per game at home. They also have a very underrated defense that is surrendering 96.6 points per game this season. The Thunder take a hit in production when playing on the road. They average 2.2 points per game less, while the defense is surrendering 1.2 points per game more. The Spurs have a 38-20 ATS record when playing only their second game in the last five days. They are also 17-6 ATS when coming off a game making 55 percent or more of their shot attempts. In head-to-head meetings between these teams the home team has also been the favorite, and they have posted a 6-1 ATS record. With the Spurs playing at home with two days of rest, and the Thunder playing in a back-to-back situation this game has blowout written all over it. |
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01-22-14 | Northeastern +7 v. Towson | Top | 57-54 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
5* Heavy Hitter on Northeastern +
This is way too many points for an underrated team like Northeastern to be receiving. The Huskies have played a tough schedule this season, and they have picked up some impressive wins in the process. The highlight win of the season game in a 63-56 victory over Georgetown, so I think Northeastern is a much better team than their record indicates. The Huskies have three losses in Colonial Athletic play, and all of those losses have come by a single-digit margin. They are up against a Towson team that is very overrated thanks to a soft schedule. The Tigers are coming off back-to-back road games against conference opponents, and I have them playing in a letdown spot at home against Northeastern. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Northeastern. You should play against home favorites like Towson when they are coming off an upset win as a road underdog and they have won 60 to 80 percent of their games on the season when they are playing against a team that has won 20 to 40 percent of their games on the year. This system has cashed in a 44-16 (73%) ATS record over the last five seasons. |
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01-21-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 | Top | 97-105 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
5* Western Conf. Game of the Month on OKC Thunder -
The Thunder have a lot to play for in this game, and I like their chances to pick up a big win on their home court. First place in the Northwest Division is on the line, and tonight Portland will run into a red hot Thunder team and the league's leading scorer. Kevin Durant is riding seven consecutive 30-point performances as Oklahoma City tries for their fourth consecutive win. The Trail Blazers are playing in a back-to-back situation after getting crushed by Houston last night. It was a 13-point loss for Portland, and I expect them to struggle again against this Thunder team that is 18-3 at home this season. Oklahoma City will also have the revenge factor on their side. Portland squeaked off a four point win the last time these teams met, and with a day of rest coming into this game I expect the Thunder to easily get that revenge. The Trail Blazers are a very soft team defensively. They surrender an average of 104.2 points per game on the road this season. Oklahoma city is 53-32 against poor pressure defenses that are forcing 14 or less turnovers per game. They are also 40-25 ATS when coming off a performance scoring 105 or more points in their last outing. The Thunder have dominated the head-to-head series between these teams posting a 6-3 ATS record over the last three seasons. |
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01-18-14 | Long Beach State +5 v. Cal Poly SLO | Top | 63-62 | Win | 100 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
5* Big West Game of the Year on Long Beach State +
The 49ers have been a great team to back on the road when they are playing a team with a losing record. They have a 34-19 ATS record in those games, and that is a trend that should continue this weekend. Cal Poly has faced an incredibly soft schedule this year, yet it still sits two games below a .500 record. The Mustang |
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01-13-14 | Houston Rockets -5.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 104-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on the Rockets -
The Celtics are in a horrible slump right now. They have lost 11 of their last 12 games. Boston is coming off a five game road trip, and I think they will have a bad letdown performance in their first game back home. This will be Boston |
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01-11-14 | Florida Intl. +15 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 51-85 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
5* C-USA Game of the Year on Florida Int. +
This is simply too many points for the Golden Panthers to be receiving in today's matchup against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. The Panthers are averaging 73.6 points per game this season, and they should easily be able to keep pace with the Bulldogs in scoring. Defensively Louisiana Tech has been decent, but I don't think they are as good as the numbers their statistics tell thanks to a very soft schedule. The Bulldogs offensive numbers are also artificially inflated. Their opponents have allowed an average of almost 77 points per game, which makes the Panthers one of the better defensive teams Louisiana Tech has faced this season. Florida International has played well on the road this year, and I like their chances to keep this game within single-digits against the Bulldogs. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on the Golden Panthers. You should play against favorites like Louisiana Tech when they are coming off a win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, and they have won 80 percent or more of their games on the season and are playing against a team that has won 51 to 60 percent of its games like Florida International. This system is 36-11 (77%) against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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01-11-14 | New York Knicks -4.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers | Top | 102-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
5* Atlantic Division Game of the Month on Knicks -
The Knicks have been on fire in the New Year, and this line is giving far too much credit to Philadelphia. New York has won four of their last five games straight up, and covered the spread in all five of those games. Philadelphia on the other hand has lost three in a row both straight up and against the spread. The 76ers are showing no signs of life, while New York does not even begin to resemble the team that lost 13 of their first 16 games this season. The Knicks should be able to score at-will against this soft 76ers defense. Philadelphia is allowing an average of 111.2 points per game this season, and they get no benefit from home court advantage where they have surrendered 111.9 points per game. The Knicks defense on the other hand has been solid, especially recently. Over their last five games New York has held its opponents to a mere 92 points per game. The Knicks have been a good team to back on the road recently. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games when their opponent has a losing record at home. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven games when playing with a day of rest. Philadelphia is playing in a back-to-back situation after getting blown out by a double-digit margin at home last night against Detroit. |
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01-08-14 | Detroit Pistons +5 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 91-112 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference Game of the Week on Pistons +
Toronto is coming off back-to-back losses against two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Those games put an end to their win streak, and I think it will be hard for the Raptors to recover since they are playing in a back-to-back situation. Now Toronto has to face a Pistons team that is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games against Atlantic division opponents. Detroit is coming off a strong defensive performance last night, holding New York to just 89 points. If not for a rare poor shooting performance it is a game the Pistons would have won. They should have no problem bouncing back against this Toronto team that is surrendering 99.3 points per game at home this season. The Raptors are scoring a mere 91.4 points per game over their last five games, and their poor defensive play will cost them tonight. The Pistons come into this matchup scoring 99.3 points per game on the road. This game fits into a very profitable system for a play on Detroit. You should take road underdogs like the Pistons after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, and they have won 25 to 40 percent of their games in the season. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers are undervaluing, and it has led to a 162-102 (61%) record against the spread. |
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01-04-14 | Northeastern +6.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 49-79 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
5* Non-Conference Game of the Week on Northeastern +
These teams are basically identical statistically, with a few key advantages for the Huskies. Northeastern has been a better rebounding team on the offensive glass, with a +2 rebounding margin on that end of the court. The Commodores on the other hand come into this game with a -2 figure in offensive rebounding margin when playing at home. The Huskies have also been a better ball control team averaging 14 turnovers per game. The statistical advantages are actually much better than they appear on paper. Northeastern has played a much stronger strength of schedule, so the fact that they are putting up such comparable numbers to Vanderbilt tells me the Huskies are actually the better team. Northeastern has close losses against some very good opponents, while the Commodores have been blown out by good teams and they have played in some very close games against bad teams. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Huskies. You should play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Northeastern when they are coming off a loss by six points or less, and playing against an opponent that is coming off a game with a combined score of 110 points or less. This system is 65-32 (67%) against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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01-04-14 | St John's +6.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 60-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
5* Big East Game of the Month on St. Johns +
Georgetown might be one of the most overrated teams in the Big East this season. They come into this matchup against St. Johns with a 9-3 record, suffering losses at the hands of Oregon, Northeastern and Kansas. That may not seem all that bad at first glance, but those games were not even close. Their most recent loss to Kansas came by 22 points. Even their wins have been less than impressive. They won at home against Colgate by a mere six points, and they are coming off a home win by seven points against a very bad DePaul team. I think St. Johns will be the hungry team in this game after suffering a road loss earlier this week at the hands of Xavier. The Red Storm have played two ranked teams, staying within five points of No. 2 ranked Syracuse last month. Their four losses have come against teams with a combined record of 47-8. Their difficult schedule should have them well prepared to take on this overrated Hoyas team. The Red Storm have two key statistical advantages. They are a better rebounding team averaging 38 boards per game, with 10 of those coming on the offensive glass, and they are a better ball control team with just 10 turnovers per game this year. St Johns is 8-0 ATS when coming off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival. They are also 25-12 ATS in road games when coming off a road loss. Georgetown on the other hand has posted a 15-32 ATS record in home games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite. The Hoyas have failed to meet oddsmaker |
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01-03-14 | New Orleans Pelicans -3 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 95-92 | Push | 0 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on New Orleans Pelicans -
The Pelicans are an easy call in this game. The Celtics lack the offensive firepower it will take to keep pace with this New Orleans team, and Boston has struggled to keep up with oddsmaker |
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12-27-13 | Lafayette v. Seton Hall -11.5 | Top | 58-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
5* CBB Game of the Month on Seton Hall -
The Seton Hall Pirates are clearly the better team in this game. The Pirates average 79 points per game at home, and I think there is a big opportunity to score even more tonight against a Lafayette defense that has allowed an average of 76 points per game on the road. The Pirates are also a great foul drawing team, and averaging over 74 percent from the free throw line will give them another key advantage. The Pirates should dominate the boards in this matchup. They are +2 in rebounding margin, while the Lafayette Leopards are -1. Things will not get any easier for the Leopards tonight because they will be up against Seton Hall's Gene Teague. This season Teague has five double-doubles. He averages 10.2 points per game and 9.3 rebounds. The Leopards do not have a player on the court that will be able to compete with Teague on the offensive glass, and those second chance shot attempts will be a big difference maker in this game. This matchup fits into a system to play on home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points from a major division one conference when they are coming off a home win scoring 85 points or more and they are playing against a team from a mid-major conference. This system is 147-87 (62.8%) against the spread. Lafayette will be without their best player Seth Hinrichs who is out indefinitely with a knee injury. With Seton Hall already having a big statistical advantage over the Leopards, I can't see how Lafayette will be able to stick withing 11 points on the road against the Pirates. |
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12-22-13 | DePaul +1.5 v. Illinois St | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
5* Vegas Insider on DePaul +
Illinois State is clearly outmatched in this game. The Redbirds have serious rebounding issues this season, and they have also been getting into a lot of foul trouble. Those extra rebounds, as well as the extra points from the free throw line give DePaul a significant matchup advantage. The Blue Demons come into this game with a +3 figure in rebounding margin, while the Redbirds are -5 in that category. Illinois State has averaged 24 fouls per game, so expect the Blue Demons to be playing from the bonus early on. Another factor favoring the Blue Demons is their overall strength of schedule in comparison to Illinois State. DePaul has a better record, and they have been winning games against better teams than the Redbirds. The Blue Demons have won four of their last five games coming into this matchup. Illinois State is coming off a game where they squeaked by a weak Tennessee State team, and prior to that they were crushed in a matchup with Oakland. The Redbirds have not shot above 38 percent from the field in their last two outings. Illinois State is 10-26 in their last 36 home games against a team with a winning record. DePaul is coming off a blowout win over Houston Baptist and they are 13-4 ATS on the road when coming off a home win by 20 points or more. The Blue Demons are also 27-13 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal team that has won 51% to 60% of their games on the season. DePaul is clearly the better team, and they should have no problem picking up a win over Illinois State in this matchup. |
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12-18-13 | NC State v. Tennessee -7.5 | Top | 65-58 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
5* Non-Conference Game of the Month on Tennessee -
The Volunteers have three losses coming into this game, but all three of those games have been played against very good opponents, and their margin of loss has been in the single digits. Those losses have also come either on the road or a neutral court games. Tonight they get to play host to an NC State team that is nowhere near as good as their 7-2 record would indicated. The Wolfpack have yet to win a game over decent opponent. Their last three wins have come against teams that are a combined 12-20 on the season. The Wolfpack have a double-digit loss on the road against Cincinnati, and they were beat in overtime against North Carolina Central. The Volunteers will easily be one of the best opponents they have faced, and I expect them to struggle mightily on the road in this game. Tennessee has been dominant at home this year scoring 83 points per game, while their defense has held opponents to a mere 63.7 points per game. That has led to a 4-0 record in home games. The Volunteers respond well when coming off a loss. After losing to UTEP they had a chance for revenge against Xavier, and they took full advantage by putting a 15-point beat down on the Musketeers. The Wolfpack are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games, while the Volunteers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played at home. Tennessee is also 13-5 ATS when coming off a straight-up loss. Mark Gottfried is 3-14 ATS as a head coach when coming off a close home win by three points or less. NC State was lucky to squeak by (5-6) Detroit, and I don't think that luck will continue today against this undervalued Volunteers team. |
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12-14-13 | New Mexico St +1 v. Drake | Top | 81-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
5* Vegas Insider on New Mexico State +
The Aggies have several key advantages in this game. They are an excellent rebounding team, pulling in 36 boards per game, with 11 on the offensive end of the court. Drake has struggled on the offensive glass, getting outrebound by three boards per game at home this season. Also, the Bulldogs have played several Division III schools to pad there statistics, and I think it is very unlikely they will be able to match their 51.1 percent shooting from the field against the Aggies. New Mexico State is great at drawing fouls. They average 31 free throw attempts per game, while Drake gets to the line and average of just 19 times per game. I think the Aggies will get several of the Bulldogs players in foul trouble early, and they should easily pull away down the stretch. I don |
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12-13-13 | Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -3.5 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
5* Heavy Hitter on Golden State Warriors -
The Golden State Warriors have an explosive offense, and against a horrible defensive team like the Rockets I think they are poised to put a big number on the scoreboard. Combine that with a defense that plays exceptionally well at home and the Warriors become a strong value play. Golden State is 7-2 straight up on home games, while the Rockets are just 5-5 on the road. The Warriors are averaging 104.8 points per game at home this season. They should score at-will on a Houston defense that has allowed 109.5 points per game on the road. This is also a revenge game for the Warriors. They were crushed when playing at Houston last week, and this time they have the benefit of playing host. I think they get their revenge with a strong first half, which is something that was missing the last time these teams met. In the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these teams the favorite has a 9-4 ATS record. The Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against Pacific division teams, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Golden State had yesterday off, so they should be well prepared for Houston. The Rockets on the other hand played last night in a losing effort against Portland. With the rest profiles favoring Golden State I think they get a big win in this game. |
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12-13-13 | Sacramento Kings v. Phoenix Suns UNDER 209.5 | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
5* Pacific Division Total of the Month on Suns/Kings UNDER
The total on this game has been set far too high. The Kings only average 98.8 points per game, and they should struggle against a Suns defense that is playing with two days of rest. Sacramento is also playing with a day off, and with both teams being rested I think both defenses will play well tonight. Phoenix has allowed just 99.9 points per game this year. Nothing about this game indicates that either team is going to be able to exceed their scoring average, or end up allowing more than their defensive average for points against. The total on this game reflects a potential shootout, but the numbers say this game will be a defensive battle. The under is a perfect 9-0 when Sacramento is on the road and coming off a blowout loss by 20 points or more. It is also 15-5 when Phoenix is coming off an upset win as a road underdog. This matchup fits into a system to play the under when a team like Phoenix is facing a division opponent and they are coming off a road win against a division rival. This system is 66-30 to the under for the last five seasons. You should also play the under when the total is 200 points or more and there is a well rested team like Phoenix that is playing four or less games in the last 10 days, and have won between 51% to 60% of their games on the season. This system is 96-52 (65%) in favor of the under for the last five seasons. |
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12-07-13 | Sacramento Kings v. Utah Jazz OVER 193 | Top | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Jazz/Kings OVER
The total for this game is set much lower than it should be. Neither of these teams has played well defensively this season, and they are both capable of putting up big numbers on the offensive end of the court. The Sacramento Kings are allowing 102.2 points per game on the road this season. The Jazz get a big boost in offensive production on their home court, and against a soft Kings defense I think they will more than account for their half of the points needed to send this game over the total. The Kings lack of success this year has not come from a lack of scoring. They are averaging 97.1 points per game, and they have a great opportunity to build on that number against a Jazz defense that is allowing 101.5 points per game. Utah's defense has been soft regardless of venue, so the fact that Sacramento is on the road should not slow them down in this matchup. This matchup fits into a system to play the over when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points, when a team like Utah has won less than 25% of their games, they are coming off a road loss against a division rival, and they are playing a team with a losing record. This system is 38-11 (78%) in favor of the over. Expect a shootout between two bad teams because neither have played well on the defensive end of the court. |
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12-06-13 | Utah Jazz +11.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 98-130 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
5* Vegas Insider on Utah Jazz +
The Portland Trailblazers have been playing at an unsustainable level. They are a team that is nowhere near as good as their 16-3 record. There is a lot of value on Utah as a double-digit underdog in this game. The Trailblazers have not been a strong defensive team, allowing an average of 99.9 points per game. They have posted a 3-7 ATS record in their last 10 home games against a team with a losing record. The Jazz have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games. They are playing a lot better recently, winning three of their last five games straight up. Utah has shot over 50 percent from the field in two of their last three games, and I like their chances to keep this game close considering how well the team is playing right now. This matchup fits into a very profitable system. You should play against favorites of 10 points or more when they have three consecutive wins, and a winning overall record on the season. This system identifies teams that oddsmakers overvalue, and it has resulted in a 125-84 (62%) ATS record over the last five seasons. |
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12-04-13 | Dallas Mavericks v. New Orleans Pelicans OVER 207 | Top | 100-97 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
5* Total Dominator on Mavericks/Pelicans OVER
The total on this game is much lower than it should be given the way these teams have been playing recently. In their last five games, the Pelicans are averaging 109.8 points per game. They should have no problem putting up another big number tonight against a Mavericks defense that is allowing 102.4 points per game on the road. The Mavericks should also score a lot of points in this game. New Orleans is allowing 101.9 points per game this season, and they have done so against opponents whose offensive average is just 97.7 points per game. The Dallas Mavericks come into this game scoring 103.7 points per game, and with the Pelican's complete lack of defense they have a very good chance to improve on that number today. This matchup fits into a system to play the over when a team like New Orleans is coming off two consecutive road wins by five points or less, and they are playing in the first half of the season. The over has a 40-11 (78%) record in the last 51 games fitting into this scenario. In the last nine head-to-head meetings between these teams being played in New Orleans the over has a 7-2 record. I expect tonight's matchup to be another offensive showcase sending this game over the total. |
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11-25-13 | Houston Rockets v. Memphis Grizzlies +2 | Top | 93-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
5* Vegas Insider on Memphis Grizzlies +
After a slow start this season the Grizzlies have really turned things on recently. They have won three of their last four games coming into today's matchup with Houston. They have an extra day of rest over the Rockets, and that gives them a big advantage in this game. Defensively, Houston has struggled on the road this year, allowing 113.8 points per game. The Memphis defense has been tough, allowing just 96.3 points per game against opponents whose offensive average is over 100 points per game. The Grizzlies should also dominate the turnover margin in this game. They have just 14 turnovers per game compared to 18 from the Rockets. With the better defense, and more efficient offense I think the Grizzlies take this game at home. The Houston Rockets are 3-13 ATS over the last three seasons when playing in a road game against a division opponents. They face a Memphis team that is 27-13 ATS after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers. In head-to-head matchups between these teams, the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Rockets are 0-5 the last five games played in Memphis and 3-7 in the last 10 meetings overall. |
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11-16-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 180.5 | Top | 94-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Pacers/Bulls UNDER
With or without Derrick Rose, this total is set far too high. The Indiana Pacers have a great defense. They have held opponents to just 83.7 points per game this season. They are allowing 38.6% from the field, and have played just as good on the road as they do at home. Indiana has gone under the total in eight of their nine games this season. The Chicago Bulls are also solid defensively. They have allowed 78.3 points per game at home, and 89.4 points per game overall this season. The Bulls have given up a 35.4% shooting percentage from the field. What makes this under even more likely is the fact that neither of these teams has been great offensively. The Pacers score 95.9 points per game this season, while the Bulls average 91.7 points per game at home. This matchup falls into a system to play on the under when a team like Indiana is off a home blowout win by 20 points or more and playing an opponent off a road win by 10 points or more. This system is 96-48 in favor of the under. The Bulls have also gone under the total in five of their last six games. |
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11-08-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Washington Wizards UNDER 197 | Top | 108-112 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Nets/Wizards UNDER
The total on this game has been set far too high. First of all, the Brooklyn Nets are the better team and they will control the pace of this game. Washington has done a lot of scoring this season, but it has come at an unsustainable level. Against a good team like Brooklyn I don't think they will be able to match there average of 102 points per game at home. Brooklyn is not a fast paced offense. They average just 90 points per game on the road. They know they will need to control the pace of this game and turn it into a defensive battle rather than a shootout. The Nets have an extra day of rest over the Wizards and should be able to prevent their opponents from continuing to shoot 50% from the field. The under is 7-3 in Brooklyn's last 10 games against a team with a losing record. It is also 35-15-1 in Washington's last 50 games following a straight up win. In the last five head to head meetings between these teams the under has a 4-1 record, and a 7-3 record in the last 10 meetings. Expect a strong defensive performance from the Nets, and with their offense struggling on the road this game should easily stay under the total. |
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11-01-13 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Washington Wizards OVER 198.5 | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
5* Total Dominator on 76ers/Wizards OVER
We learned two things in Philadelphia's season opener. First of all their offensive scoring potential is much improved after the overhaul this team went through in the offseason. They put up 114 points in that home opener against Miami. They also showed us that there is going to be a learning curve while these players learn how to play together. The defense allowed 110 points, and the team had 18 turnovers. It is a very similar story for the Wizards. The managed to score 102 points in their season opener, which was played on the road. With this matchup against Philadelphia being their first home game of the year, I expect the crowed to be fired up and the Wizards to put on an offensive show. Dating back to last season the over is 7-1 in Washington's last eight games against Eastern Conference opponents. It is also 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss. It is 15-5 in home games when Washington is coming off a road loss over the last two seasons. The 76ers are also trending towards the over, posting a 51-31 record to the over against Southeast division opponents. |
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10-30-13 | Indiana Pacers v. New Orleans Pelicans +2 | Top | 95-90 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
5* No Brainer on New Orleans Pelicans +
It is early in the season so there is very little chance that the conditioning levels are where head coaches want them to be. That spells trouble for the Pacers because they are playing on back-to-back nights. The Pelicans will be the fresh and rested team with home court advantage so getting two points is a gift from the oddsmakers. The Pelicans made some quality moves in the offseason so they should be a much better team this year. Jrue Holiday is an All-Star player and a matchup nightmare for the Pacers. Combine that with the fact that they will have a healthy Eric Gordon and the Pacers should be on upset alert. Gordon is an undervalued talent that has played in just 51 games over the last two seasons. Gordon averaged 22.3 points per games with the Clippers in the 2010-11 seasons. The Pacers have been given too much credit based on last year's postseason performance. They looked soft when closing out the game against Orlando last night and are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win. The Pelicans are a great team to back based on their rest profile. When they have time to rest and prepare for an opponent (three or more days) they have posted a 13-4 ATS record in their last 17 games. |
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06-13-13 | Miami Heat +1 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 109-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
5* Finals Game of the Year on Miami Heat
The Miami Heat are a team that plays better when their backs are up against the wall. We have seen it throughout the playoffs in the series against Indiana and now against San Antonio. They have not lost back to back games since the beginning of the season. The Spurs may struggle without Tony Parker if he is unable to play due to a nagging leg injury. The Heat have now seen San Antonio |
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05-28-13 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185.5 | Top | 92-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
5* Total Playoff Game of the Year on Heat/Pacers UNDER
Indiana made the mistake of letting the Heat control the pace of the last game and it cost them. I don |
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05-26-13 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 182.5 | Top | 114-96 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
5* Total Dominator on Pacers/Heat UNDER
The Indiana Pacers have the second best defense in the NBA. They are playing on their home court for today |
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05-22-13 | Indiana Pacers +8 v. Miami Heat | Top | 102-103 | Win | 100 | 36 h 54 m | Show |
5* No Brainer on Indiana Pacers +
The oddsmakers are not giving much respect to arguably one of the best defenses in the league this season. Indiana has not allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or more from the field in over a month coming into this game. Miami did not look good in their opener against Chicago and with the Heat not having played in a week I expect them to come out a little sluggish in this matchup too. The Pacers defense has held opponents to an average of 89.4 points per game in the playoffs on 41.6% shooting from the field. This is a defense that plays just as good on the road as they do at home holding opponents to a mere 91.6 points per game. While the Pacers may not have a high scoring offensive unit, they should certainly not have any problems staying within 8 points against a Miami defense allowing almost 95 points per game at home. Indiana is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They are also 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games when they are playing on 3 or more days of rest. The extra rest afforded to the Pacers will prove to be very beneficial to an already stout defense. Expect the Pacers to come out strong and the defense to keep this game close until the end. |
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05-10-13 | San Antonio Spurs +2.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 102-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
5* LATE INFO INSIDER on Spurs +2.5
There is no way San Antonio should be an underdog coming into this game. You should always play on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 like San Antonio when they are coming off an upset loss as a home favorite, and they are a well-rested team playing 3 or less games in the last 10 days. This system is 24-6 (80%) ATS. The Spurs have no problem winning games on the road. They posted a 25-18 straight up record and average 101.9 points per game away from home. Defensively San Antonio is holding opponents to 96.5 points per game and it is that defense that will be the difference maker in today |
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05-06-13 | Golden State Warriors v. San Antonio Spurs -8.5 | Top | 127-129 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
5* No Brainer on San Antonio Spurs -
The Spurs may not have the flash and pizzazz that that NBA fans want to see, but the bottom line is they know how to win ball games. The Spurs have a 37-6 record at home and they average 104.2 points per game, enough to keep up with any team left in the postseason. The Spurs are facing one of the most overrated teams still in the playoffs which means this game is going to be a blowout. Golden State may average 101.1 points per game on the road, but their defense allows 103.2 points per game. They have one of the worst road records for any playoff team at 20-24 straight up. The San Antonio defense has held opponents to 93.9 points per game and their average margin of victory at home is over 10 points. San Antonio is 32-15 ATS over the past two seasons when playing against a team winning 51% to 60% of their games. In the second half of the season that number improves to 21-9 ATS. Golden State on the other hand is 15-28 ATS in the second half of the season against teams making 36% or more of their 3 point attempts over the last 3 seasons. These trends combined for a record of 81-39 (68%) ATS. |
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05-04-13 | CHICAGO GM7 v. BROOKLYN GM7 UNDER 182 | Top | 99-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Nets/Bulls UNDER
With the series between these teams being tied at 3-3 I expect both coaches to be making defensive adjustments coming into game 7. You should always play the under when the total is between 180 to 189.5 points when the playoff series is tied and both teams have a winning record. This system is 34-14 (71%) to the under throughout the last 5 seasons. Both of these teams are solid defensively with the Bulls holding opponents to 93.4 points per game and the Nets holding opponents to 94.6 points per game on their home court. The fact that one of these teams will be eliminated after tonight |
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04-26-13 | New York Knicks v. Boston Celtics OVER 183.5 | Top | 90-76 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
5* Total Dominator on New York/Boston OVER
The first two games between these teams have been a bit of a statistical anomaly. It is unlikely that Boston will continue to shoot 39.25% like they have so far. New York has shot well below their 44.7% average going 64-155 shooting 41.29% in the playoffs. With the Celtics averaging 47.7% at home they should have no problem putting more points on the board for today's game. You should always play on the over when one team is coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more against an opponent that scored 80 points or less in two straight games. This system is 46-20 (70%) to the OVER. The reason this particular situation results in such a high percentage of games going over the total is because teams will make offensive adjustments when they are struggling to score while the oddsmakers are forced to lower lines to match scoring trends. Defensively neither team has been great this season. The Knicks are allowing 97.4 points per game when playing on the road while Boston has allowed 96.5 per game. The change in venue is just the spark these teams need to start putting points on the board and because of their poor shooting to start this series the oddsmakers have been forced to set this total much lower than it should be. |
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04-25-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 179.5 | Top | 82-94 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Memphis UNDER
The Grizzlies are known for their defense and physical play in the pain. Playing at home with rest should help their defense step up the level of play in the post season. Memphis is 12-1 (92%) to the under when playing 4 or less games in a 10 day span this season. This matchup also falls into a system to play on the under when the total is 179.5-189.5 points in a game involving two teams holding opponents to 43.5-45.5% shooting and the road team is a good ball handling team averaging 14.5 or less turnovers per game against an average pressure defense that forces 14.5-16.5 turnovers. This system is 41-22 (65%) over the last 5 seasons. The last two games have gone over the total because the Clippers have been able to shoot an average above 50% from the field. A change in venue is more than enough to slow the Clippers down and the Grizzlies are not a team that lights up the scoreboard at home averaging just 93.2 points per game. The under is the value play in a game that should end up being a defensive battle. |
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04-24-13 | Los Angeles Lakers v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 186.5 | Top | 91-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
5* NBA Total Dominator on Lakers/Spurs OVER
The first game in this series stayed easily UNDER the 191 total that was set and in the second to last regular season game the teams played well UNDER the posted total of 193. However, dropping this total down to 186.5 is an over-adjustment by the odds makers as I think you will see both teams play better offensively here tonight. The Lakers are giving up 46.3% from the floor on the road and 38.3% from 3-point range while San Antonio shoots 49.4% from the floor and 38.3% from deep at home. The Lakers shoot 45.8% from the floor while the Spurs allow 44.2%. The fact that both teams shot 41.1% or worse the last two times these two teams met and have hit less than a third of their 3-point attempts means it's time for some regression back to the mean. The Lakers are 10-2 for the OVER this year when taking to the road to face a team that outscores their opponents by 3+ ppg. This one goes OVER the low total here tonight. |
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04-23-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Denver Nuggets -8 | Top | 131-117 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Denver Nuggets -
Denver is one of the hottest teams in the league right now, having won 24 of their last 27 games. That puts them in a favorable situation as you want to play on favorites that have won at least 20 of their last 25 games who are winning between 60-75% of their games on the season. These teams have gone 63-35 ATS (64.3%) over the last five seasons. The Nuggets are 15-6 ATS when playing a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. This is a good matchup for Denver as they are 17-6 ATS against teams who make 36% or more of their 3-point attempts the second half of the last two seasons (Golden State hits 40.3%) and 19-9 ATS against teams who score 99+ points per game this year (the Warriors put up 101.1 ppg). When you look at how each team has done at the pay window recently you'll notice the Warriors have been cashing tickets while the Nuggets have been costing their backers money. Don't worry as both teams are quick to buck the trends. Golden State is just 2-10 ATS on the road after covering two or more straight games this year while Denver is 11-2 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread this year. I'll take Denver. |
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04-21-13 | Los Angeles Lakers v. San Antonio Spurs -8 | Top | 79-91 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
5* NBA No Brainer on San Antonio Spurs -
The Spurs are one of the best teams in the league, even if they have had some injury problems the second half of the season, and that has spelled trouble for the Lakers. LA is just 9-20 ATS the last two years against teams with a winning percentage of above 70% and they are 24-43 ATS against teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ ppg. San Antonio on the other hand takes care of business against teams they should beat, going 10-1 ATS at home the last two years against teams winning between 50% & 60% of their games. You also want to take favorites of between 3.5 to 9.5 points who score 102+ points per game against a defense that gives up between 98-102 ppg after allowing 105 or more in two straight. These teams are 62-32 (66%) since 1996. The Spurs coasted into the playoffs, losing their last three games and seven of their last 10. That has just given us a couple of points of value as expectations are lower. The Lakers spent a lot of energy just to get into the playoffs and I think that will spell a letdown tonight. |
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04-20-13 | Boston Celtics v. New York Knicks UNDER 189.5 | Top | 78-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Celtics/Knicks UNDER 189.5
I don't expect a lot of points in this game tonight, largely due to how both teams will ratchet up the defensive intensity. Last year Boston scored 89.5 while holding opponents to 88.5 in their 20 playoff games. Neither team is a slouch on defense to begin with as the Knicks are giving up just 94 points per game at home and the Celtics allow just 96.7 ppg overall. The last three times these two teams have squared off the game has gone UNDER the total. The other thing I like about the UNDER here is that New York is getting Tyson Chandler and Marcus Camby back for this one. Those two guys will only solidify the Knick defense and make it more difficult for Boston to score. The last five games for Boston have gone over the total which has given us inflated this number for us a little bit and it's too good of value to pass up on. New York is 8-0 for the UNDER at home against teams making 46% of more of their shots in the second half of the last two seasons. |
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04-14-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 196 | Top | 86-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Spurs/Lakers UNDER
San Antonio has been trending heavily towards the under in recent games. They have gone under the total is 7 of their last 10 games. This matchup falls into a system to play on the under when you have a team like San Antonio that is outscoring their opponents by an average of 6 or more points per game when playing on Sunday. This system is 167-91 (65%) over the last five seasons. The Lakers have gone under at a rate of 10-1 in their last 11 home games when playing against a team with a winning road record. They are also 4-1 to the under in their last 5 games played on Sunday. These teams have a strong head to head history of getting into a low scoring battle. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 games played at Los Angeles and it is 20-7 the last 27 meetings overall. These angles are a combined 42-11 (79%) to the under. With the Lakers fighting to keep that 8th spot in in the Western Conference playoffs race I expect to see them really step it up defensively. Their defense certainly plays much better at home than they go on the road holding opponents to 3.6 points per game less than their overall average. The offense does not get much of a boost with just 6 tenths of a point in increased scoring production when playing at home. |
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04-12-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Indiana Pacers -5.5 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
5* Vegas Insider on Pacers -
The Nets have picked up two wins over the Pacers this season but we should see a completely different result tonight. In the last game between these teams the Pacers shot 34.4% from the field and 22.7% on three point attempts. That anomaly is very unlikely to take place again since the Pacers have averaged 43.6% shooting at home and the Brooklyn defense is not overly talented. You should always play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Pacers when they are playing in a double revenge situation following two straight losses to their opponent when that same opponent is coming off an upset win over a division rival. This system is 44-17 (72%) ATS. The Pacers have are solid from their home court sitting on a 30-9 straight up record. They are playing with an extra day of rest over the Nets in today |
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04-10-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 204.5 | Top | 86-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Spurs/Nuggets UNDER
This game falls into a system to play on the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 points and one team, in this matchup it is San Antonio, has gone under the total by 48 or more points in their last 10 games and they are winning 60-75% of their games on the season playing another team with a winning record. This system is 38-14 (73%) to the under throughout the last five seasons. The Spurs are 6-0 to the under in their last 6 consecutive road games and they are 5-1 to the under when playing against teams winning 60% or more of their games on the season. They are facing a Nuggets team that is 5-1 to the under in their last 6 home games and 4-1 to the under at home against teams with a winning record on the road. These team specific trends are a combined 20-3 (87%) to the under this season. San Antonio is very solid defensively and they have held opponents to an average of 96.2 points per game this season. They are playing exceptionally well lately holding opponents to just 92.2 points per game in their last 5 games. It is unfortunate for Spurs fans, but the offense is not performing well over that same time span. They are averaging that same 92.2 points per game offensively. They face a Denver defense that has held opponents to 97.7 points per game. The Spurs will be one of the better defensive units the Nuggets have faced on their home court so it is unlikely they will reach their typical scoring average which makes the under a no brainer in this game. |
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04-09-13 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Golden State Warriors -6.5 | Top | 89-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
5* Vegas Insider on Golden State Warriors -
The Timberwolves are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing against a team winning 60% or more of their home games this season. Golden State is an impressive 26-12 at home this year. The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss and they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a losing straight up record. Minnesota is 29-47 this season and they are an embarrassingly bad 10-27 when playing on the road. When playing at home the Warriors are scoring 101.4 points per game and holding opponents to 97.2 points per game. They should be able to beat their averages with ease against a Timberwolves team that allows 100.6 on the road while scoring only 95.2 points per game. The Warriors are hot coming into this game averaging 104.4 points per game in their last five games. They have shot just under 50% from the field while holding opponents to 45.6% shooting. In the last matchup between these teams the Warriors picked up a one point win on the road at Minnesota. A change in venue should be more than enough to cover the -6.5 point line set for today |
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04-06-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 193 | Top | 97-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
5* Total Annihilator on Hawks/Spurs UNDER
The Hawks offense has been struggling on the road. They average 95.9 points per game and they will have their hands full against a San Antonio defense that has held opponents to 93.7 points per game at home. The Atlanta Hawks are 4-0 to the under in their last four games overall and they are 5-1 to the under following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. They are playing in a back to back situation which also favors the under at a rate of 10-3 the last 13 games playing with no rest. The Spurs have also gone under the total in their last 4 games and they are 5-0 to the under in their last 5 games against Southeast division teams. San Antonio is 13-3 to the under in their last 16 games following a straight up loss this season. In head to head matchups between these teams the under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 games played at San Antonio. The Spurs defense has played extremely well at home. The offense has been struggling recently averaging only 93.2 points per game in their last five games. All signs point to this game ending with a low score. |
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04-06-13 | Wichita State v. Louisville -10.5 | Top | 68-72 | Loss | -103 | 104 h 20 m | Show |
5* Final Four Game of the Year on Louisville -
Louisville is one of the only teams left in the NCAA Tournament that has dominated every opponent they have faced. The Cardinals are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games on the season. They are a well coached team which explains why they have an 8-1 ATS record in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games. The Louisville defense is one of the best in college basketball holding opponents to 58.1 points per game while their offense scores 74.3 per game. That is a 16.2 point margin playing in the Big East which is arguably the first or second strongest conference in college basketball this year. The Cardinals defense gets a lot of points off of turnovers as they force an average of 19 per game. Wichita State has had a nice run in the NCAA Tournament but they were playing in the West region which was hands down the least talented. The Shockers offense scores 69.8 points per game which ranks them 112th among division one teams. Their statistics were built on a season played against weak competition in the Missouri Valley Conference. The Cinderella Story for the Shockers was great, but reality will settle in when they face the overall top seed in the Tournament. |
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04-05-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns +8 | Top | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
5* No Brainer on Phoenix Suns +
Golden State is coming into this game with a 3-10 ATS record in their last 13 road games and a 3-8 ATS record in their last 11 games following a straight up win. Golden State is also 0-9 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. The Golden State defense has been the biggest problem when playing on the road. The Warriors are allowing 102.8 points per game while averaging 99.9 in scoring. In head to head meetings between these teams the home team is 6-2 over the last 8 games. The Warriors have not won more than two consecutive games since February and their poor play on the road may prevent them from picking up that third win today. Phoenix has held opponents to 97.1 points per game and they have covered two of their last three games when playing at home. In the last matchup between these teams the Warriors pulled off a 10 point victory on their home court. Considering we have a change in venue and the oddsmakers have left the line the same the Suns have become the value play in this rematch. Phoenix shot 53% from the three point line in the last game and the soft Golden State defense playing on the road should make for an easy cover for the Suns. |
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04-03-13 | New Orleans Hornets v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 197 | Top | 88-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Hornets/Warriors UNDER
Golden State has gone under the total in five of their last seven games. They are 5-0 to the under in their last 5 games against Southwest Division teams and they are 4-1 to the under in their last 5 games against teams winning 40% or less of their games on the season. They are well rested coming into this game so there should not be any tired legs on the defensive end of the court. The Hornets are 7-3 to the under in their last 10 games when playing on 2 days of rest. The extra rest for both teams should help improve their defensive numbers. Golden State is allowing 97.4 points per game at home while New Orleans is allowing 97.6 points per game. The Hornets defense has been better in their last five games holding opponents to 94.8 per game. The style of play from these teams indicates this game should be low scoring. The last time these teams met was back on March 18th and the total was 196 points with the teams scoring a combined 165 points in a 93-72 game. Both teams are playing well right now with the Hornets winning four of their last six and Golden State winning five of their last seven. These recent win streaks have been because of solid defensive performances. |
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03-23-13 | Virginia Commonwealth v. Michigan -2.5 | Top | 53-78 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
5* No Brainer of the Year on Michigan -
The Michigan Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral court games. They are facing a VCU team that has been a bit inconsistent against the spread. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win and they are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. The high pressure style of play the VCU Rams use will not work against a top tier team like Michigan. The Wolverines average a mere 9 turnovers per game and if VCU can |
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03-18-13 | Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics UNDER 189 | Top | 105-103 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Heat/Celtics UNDER
Miami is 8-1 to the under in their last 9 games when playing without rest and they are 4-1 to the under in their last 5 road games. When playing on the road against a team with a winning home record, the Heat are 5-2 to the under in their last 7 games. In their last 5 matchups against teams winning 60% or more of their games on the season the Celtics are 4-1 to the under. The last time these teams played the total reached 198 points, but that was only because they went to double overtime. The score at the end of regulation was 174 points in that game. It is unlikely these teams will go to double overtime again making the under the value play in this matchup. Neither of these teams takes a lot of shots with both the Celtics and Heat averaging fewer than 80 field goal attempts per game. The Heat have gone under the total in three of their last four games and the Celtics defense has been solid at home holding opponents to 42.6% shooting. The style of play for these teams makes the under a no brainer. |
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03-16-13 | Phoenix Suns v. Washington Wizards OVER 189.5 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer Wizards/Suns OVER
You should always play the over in a game involving two teams averaging 92-98 points per game after one of those teams has allowed 105 points or more in three straight games. The Suns gave up 108 to Denver, 111 to Houston and 107 to Atlanta. This system is 45-18 (71.4%) over the last 5 seasons. The first thing a tired team gives up on is playing defense. This is why you should play the over when the total is 180-189.5 and one of the teams is off a road loss by 10 points or more and they are an extremely tied team playing their 3rd game in 4 days. This system is 120-77 (61%) over the last 5 seasons. The Suns are bad enough on defense allowing 104.6 points per game on the road and playing tired means this game should be an offensive show. |
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03-15-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 195 | Top | 80-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Grizzlies/Nuggets UNDER
A strong offensive performance from a team will impact the total line more than a strong defensive performance. This is why you should play the under when the total is between 190.5 and 199.5 after one team is coming off a game where they allowed 85 points or less like Memphis and their opponent has scored 100 points or more in four straight games. This system is 80-45 (64%) ATS. You should also play the under when one team is off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, like Denver, and their opponent is off a road win by 10 points or more. This system is 94-46 (67%) ATS. Both Memphis and Denver are trending towards the under. Denver has gone under the total in three of their last four games while Memphis has gone under in three of their last five games. The Grizzlies are a very defense oriented team. They are holding opponents to an average score of 89.4 points per game. Memphis is 17-7 to the under after allowing 85 points or less this season. They are one of the best teams in the league and should have no problem controlling the pace of this game. |
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03-14-13 | Charlotte U +4.5 v. Richmond | Top | 68-63 | Win | 100 | 37 h 56 m | Show |
5* Vegas Insider on Charlotte +
Charlotte has a big defensive advantage coming into this game. They have held opponents to 41.1% shooting this season which makes them one of the better defensive units Richmond has faced. Richmond is 2-10 ATS against good defensive teams that are allowing a shooting percentage below 42% on the year. This is a big revenge game for Charlotte. The 49ers were embarrassed by the Spiders when these teams met back in January. Charlotte was ice cold from beyond the three point line while Richmond shot almost 50% from the field and 45% on 3 point attempts. Those are anomalies that are extremely unlikely to occur again, especially since Richmond will not have the luxury of playing on their home court. These teams ended the regular season going in opposite directions. Charlotte got hot beating Duquesne on the road and picking up a big win over St Josephs. Richmond also picked up a win on their home court against Duquesne but dropped games to Dayton and Virginia Commonwealth. The win over St Josephs had to act as a big confidence booster for Charlotte as they come into this game trying to keep their season alive and revenge their early season loss. |
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03-13-13 | Fresno State v. Colorado St -9.5 | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
5* Heavy Hitter on Colorado State -
Fresno State has lost five of their last eight games coming into this matchup. They have won their last two games against Air Force and UNLV because of poor shooting from their opponents. It is unlikely a team like Colorado State, that has won 24 games this season, is going to shoot an average of 30% from the field like Air Force and UNLV did. This same matchup was played just a couple weeks ago with Colorado State winning by 7 points. Fresno State shot 50% in that game, a feat they have accomplished only one time in their last 13+ games. Fresno only averages 38.9% from the field this season. Colorado State is definitely the hot team coming into this game winning three out of their last four games. You should always play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Colorado State when they are coming off two straight wins against conference rivals, and they are a good team winning 60% to 80% of their games playing a bad team winning only 20% to 40% of their games on the season. This system is 106-62 (63.1%) over the last 5 seasons. Colorado State is an excellent rebounding team playing against a poor rebounding team. Fresno is averaging only 32 rebounds per game with 9 of those coming on the offensive end of the court. Colorado State pulls in 41 boards per game with an average of 14 offensive rebounds. The Rams should dominate the boards and dominate this game with a blowout win over the Bulldogs. |
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03-09-13 | Houston v. Tulane -6 | Top | 96-94 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
5* No Brainer on Tulane -
You should always play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Houston when they are off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival and play are playing against an opponent that is coming off a road game scoring 75 points or more. When teams get big blowout wins they tend to have a letdown performance in their next outing, especially in conference play. This system is 32-9 (78%) the last 41 times this situation has occurred. You should also play on a team like Tulane when they are off a close road loss by 3 points or less and they are a team that has returned all five starters from last season. This angle has delivered a 78-42 (65%) record over the last five seasons. When you have all five starters from last season returning there is chemistry and experience so a close loss is not going to stick around in these player's heads. Tulane is a solid 14-3 straight up at home and playing a Houston team that is 4-7 when on the road. Tulane |
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03-08-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 204.5 | Top | 116-94 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
5* Total NO BRAINER on Bobcats/Thunder UNDER
The Thunder have gone under the total in 4 of their last 6 games while the Bobcats have gone under in 10 of their last 13 games. Oklahoma may have the explosive offense but they are playing in a back to back situation and coming from a hard fought battle against the Knicks at New York. Charlotte is playing on a day of rest and the only three games in the last 13 that have gone over the total have come when the Bobcats were forced to play in a back to back situation. You should play the under in games involving a team allowing 103+ points per game on the season coming off a blowout loss by 20 points or more. This system is 226-147 (60.6%) since 1996. You should also play the under in games where the total is greater than 200 and the road team, Oklahoma City, is averaging 102 or more points per game against a team that averages 92-98 points per game, after allowing 55 or more points in the first half in two straight games. This system is 37-12 (75.5%) to the under over the last five seasons. When teams are allowing a big first half they make defensive adjustments to ensure they do not fall behind early which also helps keep games under the total. |
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03-04-13 | Montana v. Southern Utah +2.5 | Top | 86-74 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
5* Big Sky Game of the Year on Southern Utah +
Montana is not a team that scores a lot of points. They run a slow down offense and do not get into a lot of fast breaks or bad shot attempts. That style of play does not always work and it fits perfectly into Southern Utah |
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03-02-13 | Montana v. Montana State +4.5 | Top | 71-68 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
5* Vegas Insider on Montana State +
The Montana State Bobcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games against teams winning 60% or more of their road games. Montana on the other hand is 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 road games against a team winning 60% or more of their home games. This is the fourth consecutive road game for Montana and they appear to be tiring. In their last game against Davidson they gave up 49.2% shooting and forced only 8 turnovers. The Grizzlies are a good shooting team, but so are the Bobcats. Montana State is 7-1 ATS playing teams shooting 45% or better this season. This is a revenge game for Montana State. The Bobcats played the Grizzlies back in January and lost by six points on the road. The Change in venue should easily make up the 2 point difference between those results and today |
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02-28-13 | Tenn Chattanooga +8 v. Western Carolina | Top | 81-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
5* CBB NO BRAINER on UT-Chattanooga +
You should always play on a team revenging a home loss against an opponent when they are off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. This system is 306-212 (58.6%) over the last five seasons. When that team is revenging a home loss as an underdog the system tightens up to 47-17 (73.4%) over the last five seasons. Western Carolina has not been shooting well recently. They have shot below 40% from the field in three of their last four games. The Catamounts are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record. The Western Carolina defense ranks 257th among division one teams allowing 69.8 points per game and allowing 43.7% shooting from the field. They are also a poor rebounding team ranking 185th with 34.4 boards per game. This could be a lopsided match up considering UT-Chattanooga ranks 34th in the nation with 38.3 rebounds per game. |
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02-27-13 | Sacramento Kings v. Orlando Magic OVER 206 | Top | 125-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA TOTAL NO BRAINER on Kings/Magic OVER
You should play on the over when the game involves two average offensive teams scoring 92-98 points per game after one of those teams allowed 105 points or more in three straight games. In this matchup that team would be Sacramento and this system is 42-18 (70%) over the last five seasons. Sacramento has had a lot of foul trouble this season. When a team has a lot of fouls it makes sense that the game would go over the total. The clock is stopped and points are getting put on the board. Sacramento is 19-7 to the over vs. good free throw shooting teams that are making 76% or more of their attempts this season. Orlando is 15-4 to the over against up-temp teams that are averaging 83 or more shots per game in the send half of the season over the last three seasons. Both of these teams struggle defensively. Sacramento is allowing 105 points per game on the road while Orlando is allowing over 100 points per game at home. With both teams making a lot of shot attempts and neither team having very good numbers defensively the over is the no brainer in this game. |
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02-27-13 | George Washington +6.5 v. Richmond | Top | 64-73 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 2 m | Show |
5* CBB NO BRAINER on George Washington +
The George Washington defense has been great this season. They are holding opponents to 63.4 points per game and allowing 40.9% shooting from the field. The Colonials are pulling in 38 rebounds per game on the road with 11 coming on the offensive end while allowing their opponents only 33 rebounds per game. Richmond is 1-10 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 42% or less this season. The Spiders are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games when playing teams with a losing road record and 1-4 ATS in their last five against Atlantic 10 opponents. Richmond may have the better overall record but both of these teams share a 6-6 conference record which is a lot more meaningful when it comes to assessing a team |