Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-08-18 | Louisville v. Virginia -6.5 | Top | 58-75 | Win | 100 | 3 h 46 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Virginia - I really like the value here with the Cavaliers covering what I think is a short number against the Cardinals. I know Louisville had Virginia on the ropes last Thursday (blew a 13-point lead 2nd half lead and 4-point edge with less than a second to play), but that was on their home floor. Keep in mind that the Cardinals came into that game not playing well and it's likely the Cavaliers didn't give them the respect they deserved. I don't see that being a problem this time around. Virginia will be extremely motivated here to play well, as they don't want to go into the NCAA Tournament off an early exit from the ACC Tournament. This is also a well-rested Virginia squad, who hasn't played since Saturday. Louisville on the other hand could be both emotionally and physically drained after a big win over FSU yesterday, as that was one they had to have for any shot at making the field of 68. The Cavaliers ended the regular-season with a win at home over Notre Dame, but did fail to cover the spread. Both are important to note, as they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games off a conference win and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 off a game in which they failed to cover the spread. Take Virginia! |
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03-08-18 | St. John's v. Xavier -6 | Top | 60-88 | Win | 100 | 1 h 28 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Xavier - I like the value here with the Musketeers covering this spread against the Red Storm on Thursday. Xavier simply isn't getting enough respect here. They went 15-3 in league play with two of those losses coming against Villanova. They swept the season series against St. John's and should have no problem taking them down again. Xavier has a history of playing well in games played on a neutral court, as they are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games played at a neutral site. They are also 14-5 ATS in their last 19 tournament games. While St John's won and covered in the first round yesterday against Georgetown, they are still just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. Rest is also a key factor here, as Xavier had a first round bye and will be catching the Red Storm in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. I just don't think St. John's is capable of playing well enough on no rest to keep this one competitive. Take Xavier! |
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03-07-18 | Syracuse v. North Carolina -7 | Top | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
5* NCAAB ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on North Carolina - I love the value here with the Tar Heels laying single-digits against the Orange on Wednesday. North Carolina is one of the best teams in the country and after losing their final two regular-season games are going to be extremely motivated here to play well in the ACC Tournament, so they have some kind of momentum going into the NCAA Tournament. As for Syracuse, they got a huge win yesterday in the opening round against Wake Forest. They still likely need to win here to get in, but I don't see it happening. The Orange simply don't have the offensive fire-power to keep this close and it's only going to be that much harder with tired legs on rest. Syracuse is a mere 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games away from home after a win and are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 road games vs a team that averages 8 or more made 3-pointers a game. Take North Carolina! |
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03-07-18 | Boston College v. NC State -3 | Top | 91-87 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on NC State - I like the value here with the Wolfpack laying a short number against the Eagles. NC State really closed out the season strong. They went 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS over their last 6 games. The lone hiccup coming in a game at Georgia Tech, where they simply didn't show up to play. I don't see any concern here with NC State showing up. The Wolfpack offensively are absolutely rolling right now. They are average 83 ppg over their last 5 and haven't scored fewer than 70 points in a game since the middle of January when they put up just 51 at Virginia. Another key here is the rest advantage for the Wolfpack, who received a first round bye, while the Eagles had to suit up yesterday and take on the Yellow Jackets. NC State is also a great tournament team and have gone 30-12 ATS in their last 42 games in the ACC Tournament. Adding to all of this is a great system in favor of the Wolfpack. Neutral court favorites who are an explosive offensive team (76+ ppg) that have scored 75+ in 3 straight games are 83-41 (67%) ATS when facing a decent offensive team that averages 74-76 ppg. Take NC State! |
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03-04-18 | Pacers v. Wizards UNDER 209.5 | Top | 98-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pacers UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Wizards hosting the Pacers. Just 2-games separate these two teams in the Eastern Conference playoff race and I think both sides will be highly motivated here to get a win. Indiana snapped a short 2-game skid with an impressive 103-96 win at Milwaukee in their last game and should be motivated here to finish up their road trip with a .500 record at 2-2. As for Washington, they are looking to bounce back from back-to-back home losses to the Warriors and Raptors. It's also worth noting the UNDER has been a really strong play of late in Wizards' games. In fact, the UNDER has cashed in each of Washington's last 4 games. The Pacers have also played to the UNDER in each of their last 2 games and is 9-2-1 in Indiana's last 12 road games and 5-0-1 in their last 6 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take the UNDER! |
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03-04-18 | Delaware v. Northeastern -8 | Top | 50-74 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Colonial GAME OF THE MONTH on Northeastern - Analysis will be posted shortly |
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03-03-18 | Kansas v. Oklahoma State +5 | Top | 64-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma State + The Cowboys already went into Lawrence and defeated the Jayhawks 84-79 as a huge 12-point dog. I see no reason why we shouldn't expected a similarly competitive game in the rematch and I think there's an excellent chance Oklahoma State wins this one outright. Keep in mind there's plenty of incentive here for the Cowboys, not only playing against an elite team and Big 12 regular season champ, but it's also senior day. The other big factor here is the spot for Kansas. I don't know that revenge is really on the mind of the Jayhawks here. They are coming off two huge wins at Texas Tech and at home against Texas to lock up yet another Big 12 title. This game really doesn't mean a whole lot and I think Kansas is going to come out a bit flat, as they start to look ahead to next week's Big 12 Tournament and NCAA Tournament. Take Oklahoma State! |
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03-02-18 | Warriors v. Hawks OVER 226 | Top | 114-109 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Warriors/Hawks OVER I recommending playing the OVER in Friday's NBA action that has the Hawks hosting the Warriors. We can pretty much bank on Golden State putting up a big number here offensively. The Warriors haven't scored fewer than 105 points in 11 straight games and are averaging 119.4 ppg over their last 5. Atlanta doesn't have the talent or scheme defensively to slow them down. The key here is I don't think we are going to see Golden State bring the defensive intensity against an inferior opponent in what's the final game of a 3-game road trip and a nice 3-day break looming after this contest. I think we get a very similar type of game to the Warriors recent road game against the Knicks, where they won 125-111. OVER is 6-2-1 in the Warriors last 9 games vs a team with a losing record. It's also 13-4 in the Hawks last 17 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs a top tier team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the OVER! |
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03-02-18 | St. Peter's v. Rider -5.5 | Top | 66-55 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
5* NCAAB MAAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Rider - I like the value here with the Broncs laying what I feel is a short number in the quarterfinals of the MAAC Tournament. Rider earned a share of the MAAC regular-season title with a 15-3 league record. That includes two wins over St. Peter's who finished up 9th in the MAAC with a mere 6-12 record. The Peacocks did give the Broncs a scare in each of the meetings this season, but it won't be easy keeping this one close. That's because St. Peter's is at a big disadvantage here playin on no rest after taking on Monmouth last night. A game that went right down to the wire, as the Peacocks escaped with a 60-58 win. I just don't see St. Peter's having enough left in the tank here and the Broncs aren't going to overlook them given how close the previous two games were. Last time out Rider played in a shootout, defeating Iona 110-101. That's worth noting, as the Broncs are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 90 points. We also see that the Peacocks are a mere 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs a team with a winning record and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 off a SU win. Take Rider! |
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03-02-18 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State -10 | Top | 60-63 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Michigan State - I'm recommending laying the points here with the Spartans in Friday's quarterfinal action of the Big Ten Tournament. Michigan State will face off against the Badgers in the first game of the day and I think they make easy work of them. Wisconsin has been playing well down the stretch and come in having covered 5 straight, but let's not get carried away. This is still a very mediocre team (15-17 overall) and even with yesterday's win over Maryland, they are still a mere 4-10 away from home this season. While the Badgers edged out the Terps on Thursday, they shot just 36% from the field. It doesn't figure to get any better on Friday. Wisconsin's offense shot 37% or worse in both meetings against the Spartans during the regular season. I look for Michigan State to turn the defensive intensity up another notch here in tournament play and should be able to provide more than enough offense to pull away and cover this double-digit spread. Note that while the Badgers covered at home recently against Michigan State, the Spartans had gone 10-3 ATS in the previous 13 meetings in the series. They also come in with a dominant 22-9 ATS record in their last 13 games vs a team with a losing record. Take Michigan State! |
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03-01-18 | Iowa v. Michigan -7.5 | Top | 71-77 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan - I love the value here with the Wolverines laying single-digits against the Hawkeyes this afternoon. Iowa was able to pull away late and defeat Illinois 96-87 in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament on Wednesday. I'm not reading into that performance at all. Michigan has a big time advantage here in rest with the Hawkeyes playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and let's not forget they swept the season series. They first won by 7 at Iowa and later won by 15 on their home floor. While Iowa was able to knock off the Fighting Illini, this Hawkeyes' team has had a miserable time just keeping games competitive on the road. Iowa's loss at Michigan was one 7 losses away from home in Big Ten play by double-digits. The only two exceptions being against Rutgers and Minnesota, who were the first two teams out of the tournament. Iowa's inability to defend should allow the Wolverines to pull away. Iowa is giving up staggering 82.3 ppg away from home, while the Wolverines are only allowing 68.6 ppg away from home and have a more than capable offense. Take Michigan! |
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02-25-18 | UCLA v. Colorado +3.5 | Top | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
5* NCAAB PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado + I absolutely love the value here with the Buffaloes catching points at home against the Bruins. Colorado is a prime bounce back spot after dropping 3 straight. The most recent being a crushing 9-point loss at home to USC. Not only will the Buffaloes come out swinging against one of the top teams in the Pac-12, but there's added incentive here to win on senior day. I also think this is a great spot to go against the Bruins. UCLA is a full 2-games back of Arizona for the regular-season Pac-12 title and would need to win out and have the Wildcats lose their final two at home to Stanford and Cal (Bears are a league-worst 2-14 in league play) just to earn a share of the title. They know that's not going to happen, which in turn makes this game less important and more likely that UCLA looks ahead to their big showdown on the road against rival USC to close out the regular-season. Another key factor here is just how much better Colorado is at home than they are on the road. The Buffaloes have gone 11-3 SU and 9-5 ATS on their home floor this season. UCLA is just 5-7 on the road. Colorado is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games, while the Bruins are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Take Colorado! |
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02-24-18 | Celtics v. Knicks UNDER 208 | Top | 121-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Celtics UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action that has division rivals Boston and New York going head-to-head at Madison Square Garden. The Celtics returned from the All-Star break with a 110-98 win at Detroit. Their defense held the Pistons to just 43.5% shooting and my money is on another big effort on the defensive side of the ball tonight. New York put up 120 in a win over the Magic in their last game, but that's nothing to get excited about. This is still a very limited Knicks offense without Porzingis and last time they faced the Celtics they managed just 73 points. Adding to this is the fact that each of the last 4 meetings in the series have seen 204 or fewer combined points with all 3 meetings this seasons failing to eclipse the 200 mark. Take the UNDER! |
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02-24-18 | Iowa State v. West Virginia UNDER 151.5 | Top | 70-85 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Iowa State UNDER I think the books have completely missed the mark here on Saturday's total for West Virginia/Iowa St. The Cyclones simply don't have the offensive fire-power away from home to push this over the mark, which is why you can't read into the first meeting that saw ISU put up 93 in a 16-point win at home over West Virginia. Iowa State has failed to score more than 67 in each of their last 4 road games and don't figure to eclipse that mark here against the Mountaineers. West Virginia is only giving up 63.4 ppg and holding teams to 39.1% shooting at home this season. It's a big reason why just one of their last 6 Big 12 home games have seen a combined score more than what is listed here. UNDER is also 10-3 in West Virginia's last 13 conference games and 7-2 in the Mountaineers last 9 after a game where they covered the spread. Take the UNDER! |
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02-23-18 | Yale -1.5 v. Cornell | Top | 82-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Yale - I love the value here with the Bulldogs laying a short number on the road against the Big Red in Friday's Ivy League action. Yale comes in off an ugly loss at Harvard, but had won each of their previous 3 games and I like their chances of bouncing back in a big way here against Cornell. These two teams already played once this season and Yale won by 9 as a 6.5-point home favorite. Backing the Bulldogs on the road has been a money-maker, especially when they are laying points. Yale is 12-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons when listed as a road favorite. The Bulldogs have also owned this series, as they are a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings and have covered 6 straight on the road against the Big Red. Take Yale! |
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02-22-18 | Loyola Marymount +3.5 v. Santa Clara | Top | 65-64 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Loyola Marymount + I really like the value here with the Lions catching points on the road against the Broncos. While Santa Clara comes in having won 3 straight, each of the last two came on the road. The Broncos simply don't have a great home court edge and are just 6-10 SU and 4-10 ATS at home this season. I know Loyola Marymount is just 2-12 away from home, but they have gone 6-5 ATS on the road and Santa Clara is a mere 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs a team with a losing road record. The Broncos are also 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home games off an upset win over a conference opponent and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games after 2 or more consecutive wins. Take Loyola Marymount! |
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02-22-18 | 76ers v. Bulls UNDER 214 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bulls/76ers UNDER I really like the value here with the UNDER in Thursday's NBA action that has the Bulls hosting the 76ers. Chicago's offense simply isn't as potent following the trade of Mirotic and they went into the break averaging just 101 ppg over their last 5. Philadelphia on the other hand really got their defense going in the final games before the break, as they allowed just 95.2 ppg over their last 5, while holding opponents to just 41.3% from the field. I think that combination will be more than enough to keep this below the mark set by the books. It also helps the game is being played in Chicago, as we should get a big effort here from the Bulls defensively at home. It's also worth noting the Bulls went into the All-Star break having failed to cover the spread in each of their final 3 games. That's important, because the UNDER is 23-8 in Chicago's last 31 games after failing to cover 3 or more games in a row. UNDER is also 13-4 in the Bulls last 17 home games in the 2nd half of the season vs strong offensive teams that average 106 or more points/game. Take the UNDER! |
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02-22-18 | Hofstra -1.5 v. James Madison | Top | 77-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Colonial (CAA) GAME OF THE YEAR on Hofstra - I love the value here with the Pride at basically a pick'em against the Dukes on Thursday. Hofstra has been rolling and hasn't got the respect they deserve. That's evident by this low number here and the fact that they have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. Last time out the Pride rolled 88-76 at home over Drexel and are 8-1 in their last 9 road games after a combined score of 155 or more in 2 straight games and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games after a home game where both teams scored 75 or more points. Hofstra is also 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games with a total set of 150 to 159.5, while the Dukes are a mere 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games after playing their previous game on the road. Adding to all of this is a great system going against the Dukes covering this number. Underdogs off a conference win as a dog of 6 or more are a mere 9-27 ATS (25%) ATS in their next game if facing a team that just scored 80 or more points in a conference win. Take Hofstra! |
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02-21-18 | CS-Fullerton -5 v. UC Riverside | Top | 65-69 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Fullerton + I love the value here with the Titans as a short road favorite against the Highlanders in Wednesday's Big West action. CS-Fullerton is simply the superior team and there's just not a big enough home court edge for UC-Riverside to keep this within the number. The Titans are 15-9 overall and 8-4 in league play, while the Highlanders are just 7-19 overall and a mere 2-10 in conference play. The fact that Riverside only lost be 3 on the road to Fullerton in the previous matchup this season isn't a big concern for me. The Titans should have won that game going away, as they shot 54% from the field, while holding the Highlanders to just 34% shooting. They also had a +11 edge in rebounding. The big difference in the game was Riverside made 10 3-pointers on 46% shooting. That's unlikely to repeat itself. The Highlanders are shooting just 29.7% from 3-point range at home this season. Riverside is a mere 9-22 ATS in their last 31 home games, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 conference home games and 0-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons in home games played in February. Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs a bad team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take CS-Fullerton! |
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02-17-18 | William & Mary +8 v. Northeastern | Top | 67-69 | Win | 100 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE YEAR on William & Mary + I like the value here with the Tribe catching a decent number here on the road against Northeastern. William & Mary have been an excellent team to back on the road, as they are 9-3 ATS away from home. The Huskies on the other hand are a team that has been overvalued basically the entire month of February, as they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6, which includes an outright loss at home to Charleston as a 4-point favorite. The Tribe are also a team you want to look to back off a loss, as they have gone 14-5 in their last 19 off a conference loss. They also are great at getting revenge, as they are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 when revenging a loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. Take William & Mary! |
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02-15-18 | William & Mary +5 v. Hofstra | Top | 84-90 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on William Mary + I love the value here with the Tribe catching points on the road agains the Pride. William & Mary has been a road covering machine this season, as the Tribe are 9-2 ATS away from home. They have also enjoyed the role of the underdog going 8-2 ATS in the 10 games this season when getting points. On the flip side of this Hofstra has been a great team to fade at home, as they are a mere 14-36-1 ATS in their last 51 home games. Last time out they lost by 20 as a 3-point road favorite at UNC-Wilmington. That's important to note as they are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games after playing their previous game as a favorite and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 off a game where they didn't cover. Simply put, the Pride are getting way too much respect at home here. Take William & Mary. |
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02-14-18 | UC Riverside +1.5 v. CS-Northridge | Top | 69-62 | Win | 100 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big West GAME OF THE MONTH on Riverside + I'm recommending a play on the Highlanders as a short road dog against the Matadors in Wednesday's Big West action. UC Riverside is going to be out for revenge from an earlier loss at home to Northridge and I believe there's reason they get it. The Highlanders couldn't have shot much worse in that first meeting, as they connected on just 32.1% from the field. Riverside is also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their lsat 6 when revenging a loss as a home favorite. I look for a much better showing here against a Matadors defense that comes in having allowed each of their last 2 opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. Note that Northridge ranks 8th out of 9 teams in the Big West in defensive efficiency. I also think this is a good spot to fade the Matadors off a ridiculous shooting game against Hawaii, where they shot 65.1% from the field in an outright win as a 12.5-point dog. Northridge is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 off a game where they shot 55% or better. They are also a mere 5-13 ATS in their last 18 home games and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 home games when they come in having lost 4 of 5. Take UC Riverside! |
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02-11-18 | Raptors v. Hornets UNDER 215.5 | Top | 123-103 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in today's early action that has the Raptors visiting the Hornets. I think it's hard for NBA teams to get in a flow offensively in these early games on Sunday, especially this late in the season. These two teams combined for 140 points in their previous meeting back in December, which I believe has this total way too high. Toronto has been locked in defensively over their current 4-game winning streak. The Raptors have held their opponents to just 92.5 ppg and have held each of their last 3 opponents under 40% from the field. I think there's a good chance they keep it going here against a Hornets team that has shot poorly in each of their last two games and managed just 94 points in their last game against the Jazz. UNDER is 5-1 in the Raptors last 6 games off a win and 4-1 in the Hornets last 5 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Adding to all of this is a great system in play. The UNDER is 74-39 (66%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total north of 200 where they home team comes in having failed to cover the spread in 3 or more games and are on little rest, playing their 3rd game in a 4 day span. Take the UNDER! |
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02-10-18 | Northeastern +4 v. Towson | Top | 77-62 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Colonial Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Northeastern + I love the value here with the Huskies catching points against the Tigers in Saturday's Colonial Athletic showdown. Northeastern comes in having won 2 straight and are 6-2 in their last 8 overall, while Towson has failed to cover the spread in each of their last 4 games. Playing on the road hasn't been a problem for the Huskies, who are 4-1 in their last 5 away from home in CAA action with the only loss a mere 1-point defeat at Drexel. One of the big keys to this game will be the edge Northeastern has on the defensive side of the ball. The Huskies have held 5 of their last 6 opponents under 70 points, while Towson has allowed 70+ in 6 straight games, including a whopping 92 points in their last game against the Dragons. The Tigers are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 after giving up 90+ points. Take Northeastern! |
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02-09-18 | Columbia +4.5 v. Yale | Top | 84-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Columbia + I love the value here with the Lions catching points on the road against the Bulldogs. Columbia held on for a 77-74 win at home over Dartmouth, which was a good win coming off that big victory at home over Harvard. The Lions are now 3 -1 in their last 4 with the only loss being a 1-point loss at Cornell. Yale on the other hand has dropped each of their last 2 games and are just 1-4 SU in their last 5. The most recent being a 50-59 loss at Penn, which is important to note as the Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after playing their last game on the road and 0-6 ATS this season off a road loss. Yale is also a mere 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games, while Columbia is 19-8 ATS in their last 27 road games vs a team that's won 60% or more of their home games. Adding to all of this is a great system favoring a play on the Lions. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are off a home win as a favorite where they didn't cover the spread are 27-7 (79%) ATS when playing on Friday over the last 5 seasons. Take Columbia! |
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02-08-18 | San Diego -6.5 v. Pepperdine | Top | 68-66 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on San Diego - I love the value here with the Toreros in Thursday's road game against Pepperdine. San Diego is going to be chomping at the bit to get back in action after losing their last two games, both of which were contested battles against two of the top teams in the conference in Gonzaga and St. Mary's. I just don't see the Waves being able to keep this one competitive enough to cover this spread. Pepperdine is just 4-20 overall and a mere 1-11 in conference play. They are just 6-21 ATS in their last 27 vs a team with a winning record and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs a team with a winning record. The Toreros on the other hand are a great road team, especially when it comes to covering the number. They are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games overall and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Take San Diego! |
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02-08-18 | Cal Poly +8.5 v. CS-Fullerton | Top | 59-75 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big West GAME OF THE YEAR on Poly + I look for the Mustangs to have zero problem covering this spread on the road against the Titans Thursday. CS-Fullerton simply has no business being this big a favorite in this matchup. These two teams played earlier this season at Cal-Poly and the Titans needed overtime to escape with a 101-97 win, despite shooting a ridiculous 58% from the field in that contest. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Mustangs won this game outright. Cal Poly has won each of their last two games, including a 78-64 win over Hawaii as a 4-point home dog in their last game. CS-Fullerton has lost each of their last 2 games at home are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Adding to all of this is a great system backing a play on the Mustangs. Underdogs off an upset win by 10 or more points as a home dog, who have 2 more returning starters than their opponent are 54-23 (70%) ATS going all the way back to 1997. Take Cal Poly! |
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02-08-18 | Hofstra +1.5 v. Elon | Top | 67-48 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Hofstra + I love the value here with the Pride as a dog against the Phoenix on Thursday. Hofstra will be out for revenge from a home loss to Elon earlier this season and are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. As for the Phoenix, they are a mere 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a winning road record. On top of that we see that Hofstra is 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games when listed as a road dog and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games with a total in the range of 150 to 159.5. Adding to all of this is a huge system in favor of the Pride. Road underdogs who are evening a loss where they allowed 75+ points in a game that involves two marginal winning teams are 49-21 (70%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Hofstra! |
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02-07-18 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 202 | Top | 92-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
5* NBA WESTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Jazz visiting the Grizzlies. I know Utah has been putting up some big offensive numbers of late, but I think we could see them struggle to put up a big number here against Memphis. The pace here figures to be a lot slower than the last few games for the Jazz, plus they have to be a bit fatigued here playing their 4th straight on the road. The Grizzlies have decided to sit out arguably their biggest offensive threat in Tyreke Evans until the trade deadline passes. In the 4 games without him the offense hasn't scored more than 102 points and have failed to eclipse 90 in their last 2 games. Memphis has no choice but to slow down the pace without Evans and this isn't a spot where they will look to push it playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. UNDER is 11-3 in the Grizzlies last 14 after losing 3 or more straight games, 4-1 in their last 5 following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 7-2 in their last 9 home games following a road trip of 7 o more days. UNDER is also 23-8 in the last 31 meetings between these two teams in Memphis. Take the UNDER! |
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02-04-18 | Bucks v. Nets UNDER 209 | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 3 h 60 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Bucks Nets UNDER I love the value here in the UNDER with Sunday's NBA total that has the Bucks visiting the Nets. Both of these teams have seen the majority of their games finish below the mark here of late. The UNDER has chased in 6 straight games for the Bucks and 11 of their last 13 overall. UNDER is 7-2 in the Bucks last 9 games and 14-4 in their last 14 games at home. Add in the early start time here and I just don't see these two teams eclipsing the mark set here by the books. Keep in mind both teams have been struggling offensively. Milwaukee followed an 89-point effort at Minnesota with a mere 92-points in their last game against the Knicks. As for Brooklyn, they scored fewer than 100 points in 4 of their last 5. Take the UNDER! |
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02-03-18 | Loyola Marymount +1 v. Portland | Top | 66-68 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
5* NCAAB West Coast GAME OF THE MONTH on Loyola + I love the value here with the Lions at basically a pick'em on the road against the Pilots this Saturday. Loyola-Marymount is just 1-5 in their last 6 games, but are fresh off an impressive 76-69 win at home over BYU as a 10-point dog. They have been a lot more competitive than their recent run would suggest, as 4 of those losses were by 7 points or less. Not only are we catching the Lions playing with some renewed confidence off that upset win, but they will also come out highly motivated to get revenge from a recent loss to these Pilots. Another big key here is that Portland has a history of not playing well on their home floor. The Pilots are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games and a mere 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Take Loyola-Marymount! |
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02-02-18 | Dartmouth +4 v. Cornell | Top | 85-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Ivy League GAME OF THE MONTH on Dartmouth + I love the value here with the Big Green catching points here on the road against the Big Red. The books are just begging for you to take Cornell here with this small number, which only makes me like Dartmouth that much more. The Big Green have lost their last 7 games, but only two of those were at home and they have been a lot more competitive than the skid would lead you to believe. The Big Red are getting some love for an upset win at home over Columbia, but let's not forget this is a team that had gone just 1-6 in their last 7 games. Cornell has also not done well in this spot, as they are just 15-32 ATS in their last 47 when listed as a home favorite of 6 points or less. They are also just 9-25-1 ATS in their last 35 after a came where they covered the spread. Take Dartmouth! |
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02-01-18 | Elon +4.5 v. William & Mary | Top | 92-99 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Elon + I love the value here with the Phoenix catching points on the road against the Tribe. Elon comes in off a 83-76 win at Towson St as a 9-point and I look for them to carry over that momentum in tonight's showdown against William & Mary. The Phoenix will definitely be up for this game, as they have revenge from an upset loss at home to the Tribe a couple weeks back. Adding even more value is a great system in play on the Phoenix. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a conference win as a dog of 6 or more are 27-7 (74%) ATS when facing an opponent off a road win by 3 points or less. Take Elon! |
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02-01-18 | James Madison +3 v. Drexel | Top | 74-76 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on James Madison + I love the value here with the Dukes catching points on the road against the Dragons. While Drexel comes in off an impressive 68-67 upset win at home over Northeastern as a 6-point dog, I think it works against them here, as it puts in a major letdown spot against at team they lost to already once this season. James Madison is also a team that has thrived in the role of the road dog, going 7-1 ATS this season in this spot. Dragons are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after playing a game as a home dog, while the Dukes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team that is giving up 77+ points/game at least 15 games into the season. Take James Madison! |
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01-31-18 | UC Riverside +4.5 v. Cal Poly | Top | 68-71 | Win | 100 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
5* NCAAB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Riverside + I love the value here with the Highlanders catching points here on the road against the Mustangs. These are two equally bad teams and I just don't see a big enough home court edge for Cal Poly to be laying this many points. UC Riverside has started out 0-7 in Big West play and I see them being extremely motivated to get that first conference win against a team they can compete against. It wouldn't be anything new if the Highlanders pulled off the upset. They have done exactly that each of the last two years. They won 72-68 in 2016 as a 8-point dog and last year won 67-56 as a 5-point dog. Cal Poly is also just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 home games and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take UC Riverside! |
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01-30-18 | Marist +9.5 v. Manhattan | Top | 62-59 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Marist + I love the value we are getting here with the Red Foxes as a near double-digit dog at Manhattan on Tuesday. Marist is just 4-17 overall and 1-11 SU in road games this season, but are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games and have covered 3 of their last 4 on the road and barely missed out on a cover in the one that didn't go their way. Manhattan simply isn't a good enough team to be laying this many points. The Jaspers have lost 3 of their last 4 and are just 1-3 ATS during this stretch. Marist has failed to cover 2 of their last 3, but that's a positive, as they are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games in this spot. Adding to all of this is a great system back a play on the Red Foxes. Underdogs who have won fewer than 20% of their games are 43-17 (72%) ATS when revenging a home loss to an opponent that has a losing record. Take Marist! |
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01-28-18 | Clippers v. Pelicans UNDER 227.5 | Top | 112-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Clippers/Pelicans UNDER The books have set the bar too high for Saturday's total between the Clippers and Pelicans. New Orleans ranks 3rd in the NBA at 111.1 ppg, but they simply aren't going to be the same explosive offensive team going forward. The Pelicans lost star big man DeMarcus Cousins to a season-ending injury. Cousins was averaging 25.2 ppg and a team high 2.2 made 3-pointers/game. New Orleans will have to adjust their style and I think it takes some time for the offense to figure it out. The Clippers come in having allowed and scored at least 100 points in 13 straight games, which is also creating value with this big total set here. The offense hasn't been as good for LA the last two games and I think we see them struggle to get going here. UNDER is 41-14 (75%) when you have a total of 220 to 229.5 where the road team is revenging a loss to a team that scored 100+ points in the previous meeting and is off a road win. Take the UNDER! |
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01-27-18 | San Diego -2.5 v. Loyola Marymount | Top | 89-82 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on San Diego - I love the value here with the Toreros as a short road favorite against the Lions on Saturday. San Diego comes in off a 66-58 win at home over Santa Clara and I look for them to carry over that momentum here against Loyola Marymount. This is a game San Diego needs to win with games against Gonzaga and St Mary's looming on deck. That shouldn't be a problem, as the Lions are a mere 1-8 in conference play and are just 4-5 at home this season. Toreros are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games, while Marymount is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take San Diego! |
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01-26-18 | St. Peter's +6.5 v. Rider | Top | 60-63 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Small Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Peter's + I love the value and the spot here with the Peacocks catching a big number here on the road against the Broncs. St. Peter's comes in having lost 4 straight, but have been a lot more competitive than you would think for a team on a 4-game skid. All 4 losses came by 12-points or less, including a mere 4-point loss at home to Rider. Revenge is a big time motivator in college sports and I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Peacocks returned the favor and won this game outright. The road team has dominated this series, going 27-10-2 ATS in the last 39 meetings, with St. Peter's going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Rider. The Peacocks are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games off a loss. The Broncs are also just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home games after 3 or more consecutive wins and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 off a close road win by 3 points or less. Take St. Peter's! |
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01-25-18 | Northeastern +1 v. Hofstra | Top | 81-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
5* NCAAB CAA (Colonial) GAME OF THE MONTH on Northeastern + I love the value here with the Huskies at basically a pick'em here against the Pride. Northeastern is tied with William & Mary on top the CAA and red-hot right now having won 3 straight, which includes a 20-point road win over William & Mary. I look for the Huskies to have no problem here coming away with a win against Hofstra. The Pride upset Northeastern on the road earlier this season, which only adds more fuel to the fire here for the Huskies. Hofstra failed to cover in their last game and that's worth noting, as they are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games after failing to cover the spread. The Pride are also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games overall and 3-15 ATS over the last 3 seasonswhen playing for just the second time in a week stretch. Adding to all of this is a great system in play on the Huskies. Road teams who are listed at +3 to -3 that are revenging a home loss and have won each of their last 2 games by 10 or more points are 30-9 (77%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Northeastern! |
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01-25-18 | Quinnipiac +2 v. Marist | Top | 85-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Quinnipiac + I like the value with the Bobcats at basically a pick'em here against the Red Foxes. While Quinnipiac is just 2-9 on the road, Marist is just 3-5 at home and have just 1 win in their last 6 games. They are also just 2-8 in their last 10 overall. Bobcats come into this one off a 76-69 win at home over Siena as a 2-point favorite and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a contest in which they covered the spread. The Bobcats are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a losing record, while the Red Foxes are a mere 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Quinnipiac! |
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01-24-18 | Louisville v. Miami-FL -3.5 | Top | 75-78 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
5* NCAAB 'ACC' GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami - I love the value we are getting here with the Hurricanes as a short home favorite against the Cardinals. Louisville is getting way too much respect coming off a 4-game winning streak, while Miami isn't getting near enough respect due to the fact that they come in having lost 2 of their last 3. They did however win their last game, going on the road and handing NC State a rare loss on their home floor. One of the key factors here is the home court advantage for the Hurricanes, who are 6-1 at home with the only loss coming against Duke in a game they should have won (led by double-digits). Louisville is 15-4 overall, but just 3-3 away from home and I believe this is their biggest road test since losing 61-90 at Kentucky. They also lost 69-74 at Clemson in ACC play. Cardinals are also just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 road games after a win, while the Hurricanes are a dominant 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a contest where they made 55% or more of their field goal attempts. Take Miami! |
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01-23-18 | Texas A&M v. LSU +3 | Top | 65-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on LSU + I love the value here with LSU as a home dog against the Aggies on Tuesday. Texas A&M comes in having won their last two, but those were home games against Missouri and Ole Miss. Nothing to get excited about. Prior to that they had lost 5 straight and are winless on the road in SEC play with two of the three losses coming by double digits. LSU has dropped 3 straight and that's playing into the value here. The Aggies did managed to cover in their most recent win over Missouri, but that's not a good thing for them in terms of covering tonight. Texas A&M is a mere 3-13 ATS over the last 2 seasons after a game where they covered the spread. They are also just 8-18 ATS in their last 26 SEC games and and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs a team with a winning record. Take LSU! |
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01-20-18 | Pepperdine +11.5 v. San Francisco | Top | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Pepperdine + I love the value here with the Waves as a double-digit dog against the Dons on Saturday. We are simply seeing a big overreaction here by the books due to Pepperdine coming in with a 3-16 record and 0-7 mark in league play. San Francisco hasn't exactly been playing well, as they have lost 3 straight, including a 62-65 loss at home to Santa Clara as a 10-point favorite in their last game. The Dons are also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a losing record. Adding to this is a great system in favor of the Waves. Road teams off 2 straight conference losses by 10 or more and revenging a same season loss are 89-49 (65%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Pepperdine! |
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01-20-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +4.5 | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockets + I like the value here with the Rockets here at home in Saturday's big showdown with the Warriors. James Harden returned to action in Houston's last game and the Rockets cruised to a 116-98 win over a Timberwolves team that had been playing very well. The Rockets might not be able to beat the Warriors in a 7-game series, but I like their chances here at home in this 1-game set, as this one simply means more to Houston than it does Golden State. Warriors are overvalued just about every time they take the floor, but even more so when they go up against a good team and the numbers back it up. Golden State is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Adding to all of this is a great system in favor of fading the Warriors. Teams off a road win as a favorite where they failed to cover the spread are just 16-40 (29%) ATS in the month of January over the last 5 seasons. Take Houston! |
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01-19-18 | Yale -1.5 v. Brown | Top | 80-81 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Yale - I love the value here with the Bulldogs as a short road favorite against the Bears. These two teams come in with similar overall records and each has played only one league game so far. I think it's got Yale way undervalued here. The Bulldogs were expected to give Harvard a run for their money for the Ivy League title, while Brown was picked by many to finish in the bottom 3 of the league. It also just so happens that these two teams only league game was against each other with Yale winning 78-72 at home. While the Bulldogs only won by 6, it should have been more, as they shot 50% from the field and the Bears shot only 43.4%. I'm not concerned with the change in venue. Yale has been a great road team when in a similar spot to what we see here. The Bulldogs are 33-16 ATS in their last 49 as a road favorite of 6 or less dating back to 1997 and are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons. Take Yale! |
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01-18-18 | UCLA v. Oregon State +2 | Top | 63-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oregon State + I love the value here with the Beavers as a home dog against the Bruins. UCLA will be the popular side, but I don't trust the Bruins on the road in this spot. Last time out UCLA lost at home to Colorado 59-68 as a 11-point favorite. The Bruins have only played 3 true road games and the lone win was against a bad Cal team. Oregon State might not look like much on paper, especially given they come in having lost 3 of their last 4, but the Beavers are a vastly improved team. Two of those losses came on the road against Arizona and Arizona State (covered both). The other was a 2-point home loss to Utah. Earlier they beat Colorado at home by 19 and I think their ability to frustrate teams defensively will allow them to pull of the upset here. UCLA is just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 off a SU loss, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 on the road vs a team with a winning record. Take Oregon State! |
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01-18-18 | Rider +2 v. St. Peter's | Top | 88-84 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Rider + I love the value here with the Broncs catching points against the Peacocks. Rider is 11-7 with a 4-2 mark in conference play, while St. Peter's is just 8-9 overall and 2-4 in league play. Last time out the Broncs were embarrassed in a 64-91 defeat at Iona, but that puts them in a great spot to rebound and cover against the Peacocks. Rider is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 80 or more points and a perfect 6-0 ATS after giving up 90+. The Broncs are also 4-1-1 ATS in their lat 6 road games against a team with strong home record of 60% or better. On top of that, the road team in the series is 26-10-2 over the last 38 meetings, with the Broncs going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to St. Peters's. Take Rider! |
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01-17-18 | IUPU Ft Wayne -5.5 v. Western Illinois | Top | 74-75 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on IUPU Ft Wayne - I love the value here with the Mastodons as a short road favorite against the Leathernecks. Western Illinois has started out 0-3 in the Summit and that's really not a surprise, as the Leathernecks were the consensus pick to finish in the basement of the league. All 3 losses have come by 12 or more points, including a 21-point loss at home to Nebraska-Omaha as a 3-point favorite. Ft Wayne is 2-2 and last time they beat Nebraska-Omaha at home, which is a good sign that they can make easy work of Western Illinois and cover this spread on the road. One thing the Mastodons do well is connect from outside. They come in averaging 10 made 3-pointers per game and that's worth noting as the Leathernecks are just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 vs teams who average 8 or more made 3-pointers. Western Illinois is also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games when playing a team with a winning record. Take IUPU Ft Wayne! |
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01-16-18 | Georgia v. LSU -4 | Top | 61-60 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
5* NCAAB 'SEC' GAME OF THE MONTH on LSU - I like the value here with the Tigers laying a short number at home against Georgia. LSU has been one of the big surprises early on this season out of the SEC, as not much was expected after last year's 10-21 campaign. Will Wade has done a tremendous job in year one turning the Tigers into a contender and as a result LSU has been a team constantly undervalued by the books. I think that's exactly the case here at home against the Bulldogs. Georgia is a good team, but aren't exactly playing well at the moment. They just lost by 7 at home to South Carolina as a 5-point favorite and the game before that they fell by 12 at Missouri. The road struggles have been a theme all season and a big reason why I got no problem laying this short number on LSU here. The Tigers are 7-3 at home and the Bulldogs are a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Georgia's offense has been struggling and have really relied on the defense to keep them a float. In that loss to the Gamecocks, they scored just 57 points and allowed only 64. That's worth bringing up, as the Bulldogs are a miserable 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games after a game where both teams scored fewer than 65 points. Take LSU! |
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01-15-18 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 211 | Top | 119-104 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets UNDER This might seem like a low total given the recent outcomes of both of these teams, but my money in this situation is on the UNDER. These two teams don't like each other and will be facing off for the third time this season. The more familiar two teams get with one another, the harder it becomes to score in the halfcourt. Another factor here is I don't think either side has a lot of gas left in the tank. Both teams will be playing their 3rd game in the span of just 4 days. On top of that, we have a rare early start time for a weekday game with the holiday and I think that only makes it harder on the players to come out and be effective offensively. UNDER is 20-9 in the Nets last 29 home games with a total of 210 to 219.5. It's also 10-3 in Brooklyn's last 14 off a SU loss and 7-1 in their last 8 home games. Take the UNDER! |
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01-13-18 | Towson +3 v. William & Mary | Top | 99-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Towson + I like the value here with the Tigers catching points on the road against the Tribe. I also think the books are tipping their hand in this one. William & Mary, who are only laying 3-points despite the fact that they come in having won 5 straight and are a perfect 7-0 at home. The Tigers have a history of stepping up their game against top level teams on the road. Towson is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games when matched up against top level teams who are outscoring opponents on averaging by 8 or more points/game. The road team is also a solid 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in the series. Take Towson! |
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01-12-18 | St. Peter's +3 v. Canisius | Top | 58-70 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on St. Peter's I love the value here with the Peacocks catching points on the road against the Golden Griffins. St. Peter's has owned this series of late, winning 4 of the last 5 meetings, including their last trip to Canisius, as well as their meeting in the MAAC Tournament. Going back even further the Peacocks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games against the Golden Griffins. St. Peter's is also a team that has consistently played well on the road against quality opponents, as they are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record. They are also working on a 35-16 ATS run in their last 51 conference games and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 when coming off a game where they covered the spread. Not only did the Peacocks cover in their last game, they absolutely destroyed Quinnipiac at home 84-58. That has them in a very profitable situation over the last 5 seasons. Road underdogs off a win by 20 or more at least 15 games into the season are 36-9 (80%) ATS if the game is between two average teams with a +/- 3.5 ppg differential. Take St. Peter's! |
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01-11-18 | San Diego +1.5 v. Pacific | Top | 70-74 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *WCC* GAME OF THE MONTH on San Diego + I like the value here with the Toreros at basically a pick'em on the road against the Tigers. San Diego comes in at 12-4, but are fresh off a 63-70 loss at St Mary's, which snapped a 4-game winning streak. I look for the Toreros to bounce back in a big way here against a Pacific team that isn't very good. The Tigers are just 7-10 overall and are a mere 2-6 in their last 8. More than anything, Pacific should not be favored here against San Diego. You won't find me complaining. The Toreros are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games with an impressive 13-2 ATS mark in their last 15 as a road underdog. Pacific won last time out, which is also a plus, as the Tigers are a mere 2-12 in their last 14 off a win and 1-9 ATS when that win was at home. Take San Diego! |
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01-11-18 | Manhattan +5 v. Fairfield | Top | 59-53 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *MAAC* GAME OF THE MONTH on Manhattan + I like the value here with the Jaspers catching points against the Stags. Manhattan has already beat Fairfield once this season. The Jaspers held the Stags to just 35% from the field, while they connected on 59% of their shots. There's simply no reason that Manhattan should be this big of a dog here. In fact, my numbers suggest this should be closer to a pick'em. Fairfield is only 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games following 3 or more consecutive road games and a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 following a loss. Jaspers on the other hand are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning home record. We also have a great system in play backing a fade of the Stags. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a good free throw shooting team (69-73%) against an average free throw shooting team (65-69%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are a mere 16-43 (27%) ATS since 1997. Take Manhattan! |
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01-07-18 | Fairfield +7.5 v. Iona | Top | 65-84 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Fairfield + I like the value here with the Stags catching a big number on the road against the Gaels. I just don't see a whole lot that separates these two teams. Iona is simply getting too much respect here playing at home and the fact that the Stags are coming off an ugly 77-96 loss at Rider. The Gaels are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 home games overall and a mere 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home conference games. Iona is also just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 following a SU win and are just 1-5 ATS in their lat 6 games played on Sunday. Stags are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 90 or more points in their last game and 23-10 ATS in their last 33 as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. Take Fairfield! |
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01-06-18 | Dartmouth +11 v. Harvard | Top | 51-61 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
5* NCAAB 'Ivy League' GAME OF THE MONTH on Dartmouth + I love the value here with the Big Green catching double-digits here against the Crimson. Dartmouth has gone a miserable 1-6 in road games so far this season, but that's playing into this line. Their losses on the road have actually come by fewer than 10 ppg. Harvard is also just 5-9 on the season and while they are 3-1 at home, their wins at home have come by just around 4 ppg. The Big Green have historically been a good team to back when they come in having not exactly played well. Dartmouth is 12-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they come in having won just 1 or 2 of their last 7 games. They are also a dominant 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after a SU loss. It's also worth pointing out that the Big Green have covered 5 of their last 7 trips to Harvard and the road team is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 overall. Take Dartmouth! |
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01-05-18 | Fairfield +6.5 v. Rider | Top | 77-96 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Fairfield + I like the value here with the Stags catching points on the road against the Broncs. Fairfield is coming off a crushing 58-61 loss at Manhattan. The Stags couldn't have played much worse and still almost won the game. Fairfield shot just 35% from the field, while Manhattan shot 49%. I expect a much better showing here offensively from the Stags against a Broncs defense that has allowed 76+ in each of their first two conference games. Fairfield has covered 14 of the last 17 meetings in the series, including 3 of the last 4. They are also a perfect 4-0 SU in the last 4 meetings, including a 2-0 SU mark in their last 2 at Rider. The Broncs are also just 6-19 ATS in their last 25 home games after a road game where both teams scored 75+ and just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games after 3 or more straight games on the road. Take Fairfield! |
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01-03-18 | UC Riverside +8 v. CS-Fullerton | Top | 65-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *Big West* GAME OF THE MONTH on Riverside + I love the value here with the Highlanders as a near double-digit dog on the road against the Titans. In the last 8 meetings in the series UC-Riverside has won 5 times and all 3 losses have come by fewer than the spread listed here. In fact, the Highlanders are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 meetings at UC Fullerton, as the road team is 23-6 ATS in the last 29 meetings overall. In last year's meeting at the Titans Riverside was a 7.5-point dog and won outright 71-63. I see no reason why not to expect a close game here and wouldn't be shocked at all if the Highlanders won this game outright. Take UC Riverside! |
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12-31-17 | Grizzlies v. Kings UNDER 196 | Top | 114-96 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Kings/Grizzlies UNDER The simple fact that the Grizzlies just played in a game last night with Golden State that saw 269 combined points and have a total less than 200 tonight says it all. Memphis couldn't have played any better in that game, as they laid it all on the line against the defending champs. They shot 52% from the field and were a ridiculous 15 of 21 (71%) from long distance. The pace of the game was frantic and I just don't see how they come out with any energy tonight, especially against one of the league's bottom feeders in the Kings. Keep in mind that even with the massive outburst last night, the Grizzlies are still averaging a mere 98.3 ppg this season. They simply let the Warriors dictate the tempo. Memphis on the season ranks dead last in the NBA in pace. The Kings love to play at a slow tempo as well, as they are right behind the Grizzlies at 29th in pace. This has all the makings of a low-scoring game. Take the UNDER! |
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12-30-17 | Drexel +5.5 v. Elon | Top | 75-90 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *CAA* GAME OF THE MONTH on Drexel + I like the value here with the Dragons catching a decent number here on the road against the Phoenix. Drexel comes in at just 6-7, but I've liked what I've seen from this team in non-conference play. They beat Houston 84-80 on a neutral court as a 14-point dog and won at LaSalle as a 12-point dog. They also lost by just 3-points in a true road game against Temple as a 16-point dog. Elon has started out 8-5, but most have their success has come against a soft schedule. The Phoenix did pull off an upset in their last game against Indiana State, but are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win. This is also Elon's first home game after playing 4 straight on the road and they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games after playing 3 or more consecutive road games. It's also worth noting that the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the Dragons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Elon. Take Drexel! |
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12-29-17 | Rider +1.5 v. Canisius | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *MAAC* GAME OF THE MONTH on Rider + I love the value here with the Broncs as a short road dog against the Golden Griffins. Rider has been a pleasant surprise early on and come in off an impressive 71-70 win at Penn State as a 15-point dog. This is also a team that won at George Washington as a 5.5-point dog and only lost by 4 on the road against Providence as a 14-point dog. Canisius' strength of schedule doesn't even come close to comparing to the Broncs. The biggest dog the Golden Griffins have been all season is a 9.5-point dog at Buffalo. I just don't see Canisius being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Rider is averaging 82 ppg and scoring roughly 10 ppg more than what their opponents allow. The Griffins average just 70.8 ppg and are scoring less than what their opponents allow. I think Canisius is getting some respect here with this line because they come in off a 14-point win at Robert Morris, but the Griffins are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games off a road win by 10 or more points. Take Rider! |
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12-21-17 | Gonzaga -5 v. San Diego State | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Gonzaga - I like the value here with the Bulldogs as a short road favorite against the Aztecs on Thursday. San Diego State has been a great program for a long-time, but took a big step back last year in the first season without Steve Fisher at the helm. While they are off to a respectable 7-3 start a big reason for that has been the schedule. They do have a win over Georgia on a neutral court, but they also lost by 22 at Arizona State, by 7 on a neutral court to Washington State and most recently a 62-63 loss at home to Cal as a 16.5-point favorite. Gonzaga is loaded once again and have started out 10-2 with their only losses coming against big time powers in Florida and Villanova. While the home court edge might help the Aztecs make this competitive early, I look for the Bulldogs to pull away and win this one comfortably. Take Gonzaga! |
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12-16-17 | Northern Iowa +2.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 65-76 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Non-Conf GAME OF THE YEAR on Northern Iowa + I absolutely love the value here with UNI as a dog in Saturday's neutral site showdown against in-state rival ISU. My power rankings show that the Panthers should be the ones favored in this contest. The big reason they aren't is the fact that the Cyclones come in having won 7 straight, but the best wins for ISU are a neutral site game against Boise State and a home win over Iowa. The Cyclones are also way down this year, as they lost a ton from last year's team and are likely headed for a finish near the basement of the loaded Big 12. UNI is an experienced team that has proven itself against some of the big boys early. The Panthers are 8-2 with the two losses coming away from home against the likes of UNC and Villanova. They also have some impressive wins, knocking off the likes of SMU, NC State and UNLV. Panthers are 10-1 ATS in their last 12 against the Big, while ISU is a mere 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against the Missouri Vally. Panthers are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games played on a neutral site and 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 off a win. Take Northern Iowa! |
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12-15-17 | Jazz v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 107-95 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Celtics - After going on an absolute tear, Boston has come down to earth a little bit here of late, as they are just 2-2 SU in their last 4 and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5. I think it's led to a great price to back the Celtics at home here against the Jazz. Utah has been up and down this season, but are not playing well right now. The Jazz have lost 4 straight with the most recent being a 100-103 loss at Chicago. Prior to that they lost by double-digits to both the Bucks and Rockets. This is now their 3rd straight on the road and while Boston is a legit opponent, I think upcoming games against the Cavs and Rockets are ones they will be more excited for. Celtics have also owned bad road teams at home, going 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a losing road record. They are also 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 off a straight up win. Take Boston! |
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12-13-17 | Hornets v. Rockets OVER 220 | Top | 96-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
5* NBA Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockets OVER I just don't think the books have set the bar high enough for tonight's total with the Rockets and Hornets. Houston is playing out of their minds right now. The Rockets are 21-4 through their first 25 games and have not lost a game with Chris Paul in the lineup. They are doing it behind an offense that averages 115 ppg, shoots 47% from the field (48% at home) and averages 16 made 3-pointers per game. They should have their way here against the Hornets, who come in allowing 107.4 ppg on the road. I think we see Houston eclipse 120 and that would mean all we need out of Charlotte is for them to score a measly 100 points. I think give us more than that. The Hornets are coming off a 116 point showing at OKC on Monday, where they hit 53% from the field. I also think we don't see a big effort here from Houston defensively off a big come from behind win over the Pelicans on Monday and a huge game against the Spurs on deck Friday. Take the OVER! |
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12-12-17 | Charleston Southern -5 v. South Carolina State | Top | 88-91 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 15 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Charleston Southern - I really like the value here with the Bucs as a short road favorite against the Bulldogs. Charleston Southern comes in having won 4 of their last 5, including a road win at Illinois State. South Carolina State is projected to finish near the bottom of the MEAC and are off to a poor 2-9 start with their only wins coming against the likes of Morris College and Brevard College. Last time out they lost to Furman by 29 points. This is simply a much bigger mismatch than the books are suggesting with this line. Take Charleston Southern! |
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12-09-17 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Western Illinois +3.5 | Top | 69-90 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Small Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Western Illinois + I like the value here with the Leathernecks as a home dog against the Panthers. Western Illinois has been in this spot before, as they were just a 2-point home dog to IUPUI and they went onto to win that game outright 90-77. They also beat Eastern Illinois as a 4.5-point home dog. Milwaukee has started out 6-3, but this isn't a good team and are expected to finish near the basement of the Horizon League. Simply not the kind of team that should be laying points on the road against a quality team. The Leathernecks pack quite a punch offensively, as they come in averaging 76.6 ppg (83.2 at home), while shooting 51% from the field (54% at home). The Panthers haven't had a lot of success against teams like this, as they are a mere 5-14 ATS in their last 19 against a team that's shooting 45% or better from the field. Take Western Illinois! |
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12-06-17 | Pacific +5.5 v. UC-Davis | Top | 67-71 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pacific + I love the value here with the Tigers as a decently priced dog against the Aggies. Pacific went just 11-22 last year in the first season under head coach Damon Stoudamire. This should be a much improved team in 2017 and they are off to a strong 5-4 start and come in having won 3 straight and 5 of their last 6 overall. The Tigers did lose to UC Davis at home in their second game of the season 58-62, which I think is playing into this line here. Pacific was a 4-point favorite in that game and based off that line you would only expect them to be around a 2-3 point dog on the road against the Aggies. I'll take my chances here with the Tigers getting their revenge, plus this is a great spot to fade UC Davis off their big upset win on the road over Washington State, where they won 81-67 as a 7.5-point dog. Tigers are 32-15 ATS in their last 47 when revenging a loss as a home favorite, while the Aggies are just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home non-conference games. Take Pacific! |
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12-05-17 | Texas A&M v. Arizona +2 | Top | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona + Love the value here with Arizona catching points in Tuesday's game against Texas A&M. While this game is technically being played on a neutral site at Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, it's going to feel like a home game for the Wildcats. I believe this line is a direct result of the Wildcats struggles in the Battle 4 Atlantis, where they lost 3 straight to NC State, SMU and Purdue. They have since responded with a 30+ point win over Long Beach State and a outright win on the road against a very good UNLV team. This is a statement game for Arizona and I think they get it done against the Aggies, who are getting a little too much respect here after their 7-0 start. The Wildcats have owned the SEC, going a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs teams from the SEC. On the flip side of this Texas A&M is a mere 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 vs the Pac-12. Take Arizona! |
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11-30-17 | Missouri -2.5 v. UCF | Top | 62-59 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Missouri - I like the value here with Missouri laying a short number on the road against the Knights. The Tigers suffered a huge blow when freshman and potential No. 1 overall pick Michael Porter Jr. was lost for the season, but I think it has them undervalued right now. While Porter Jr. was a special talent, there's still enough pieces in place for Missouri to have a decent season and they have showed they can compete without him. Last time out they only lost by 4 on a neutral court against a very good West Virginia team. As for UCF, there missing some key pieces too. Most notably junior guard B.J. Taylor, who led the team in scoring a season ago at 17.4 ppg and is good enough to take home the AAC Player of the Year honors. He's out indefinitely with a knee injury. The Knights started out 4-0, but have since lost 2 straight. The first coming against the same West Virginia team Missouri almost beat and UCF lost to Mountaineers by 38 points. The other was a 3-point loss to St John's who the Tigers beat by 8. These two teams simply aren't as close as this line would suggest. Take Missouri! |
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11-28-17 | Maine +24.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 55-76 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
5* LATE INFO INSIDER No Analysis on LATE INFO INSIDERS |
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11-28-17 | Davidson -6.5 v. Charlotte | Top | 85-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Davidson - I really like this spot for the Wildcats, who I think are way undervalued here on the road against the 49ers. Charlotte is just 3-2 to start the year, with their 3 wins over the likes of Methodist, Presbyterian and High Point and two of those they won by just single digits. They also lost by 9 at home to College of Charleston. Davidson enters off back-to-back losses, as they fell 68-81 at Nevada and 62-78 at Appalachian State. This is still a talented Wildcats team and we are catching them laying a shorter number than they should due to their recent struggles. Note that these two teams played last year and the Wildcats won by 22, as they held the 49ers to just 28% shooting from the field. 49ers are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 as an underdog and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when they come in having won 2 of their last 3. Take Davidson! |
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11-22-17 | SMU v. Northern Iowa +8 | Top | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Iowa + I think we are getting some great value here with UNI as a decently priced dog against SMU. The Mustangs have started out 4-0, but that's no surprise given the cupcake schedule they have had. Only one of their games even had a line and they were favored by 17.5 in that one. I believe SMU's strong start combined with the fact that they are coming off a 30-win season, has them overvalued here against a good Panthers team. Keep in mind that the Mustangs lost 3 players who were either drafted or signed by NBA teams, including last year's AAC Player of the Year in Semi Ojeleye. UNI isn't going to wow you with their roster, but Ben Jacobson knows how to get the best out of his team and the Panthers have plenty of talent coming back to finish in the top 4 of the Missouri Valley for a 10th straight season. They showed a lot of that potential in their opener, when they competed in a 17-point loss at UNC. I not only think they can cover the number here, but I wouldn't be surprised if they won this game outright. Take Northern Iowa! |
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11-22-17 | Raptors -4 v. Knicks | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA Atlantic Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto - The Raptors are a team that I think is flying under the radar early on this season and they come into this game red-hot having won 4 straight and are 6-1 over their last 7 with the only loss a 1-point defeat to the Celtics. They have covered each of their last 4 games and I look for them to make it 5 in a row here tonight against a Knicks team they manhandled in a 107-84 win at home last Friday. New York is playing better than expected so far this season, as they are 9-7 through their first 16 games. However, none of their wins are all that impressive, as they have beat up on a lot of bad teams at home during this stretch. I still think this team has a long way to go to compete with the top tier teams like the Raptors. I just feel they are getting way too much respect right now and it's only a matter of time before they return to their losing ways. Toronto has been a covering machine on the road, going 6-3 ATS in their 9 road games this season. The Raptors also seem to save their best for division opponents, as they are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 vs teams from the Atlantic Division. NY on the other hand is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs team that's won more than 60% of their games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 division games. Take Toronto! |
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11-17-17 | Eastern Washington v. UNLV -11 | Top | 76-91 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on UNLV - I like the value here with the Rebels laying what I feel is a short number against an inferior team. The big reason we are seeing a low price here on UNLV, is the fact that Eastern Washington comes in off a 67-61 win at Stanford as a 16.5-point underdog. That's a nice win, but that's also a bottom-tier Pac-12 team. The previous game they lost by 10 against Washington, who also isn't anything special. Don't let the fact that the Rebels only won 11 games last year fool you. Head coach Marvin Menzies landed a big time recruiting class, headlined by 6'11 forward Brandon McCoy, who was a Top 10 talent in this year's freshmen class. Rebels are 10-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons in November, 10-2 in their last 12 non-conference home games and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 at home off a game where they were listed as a home favorite. Take UNLV! |
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11-15-17 | Nevada -5 v. Santa Clara | Top | 93-63 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
5* NCAAB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Nevada - I like the value here with the Wolf Pack laying a short number on the road against the Broncos. Nevada went 28-7 last year, taking home both the MWC regular-season and tournament titles. The Wolf Pack lost some key pieces like Cameron Oliver, Marcus Marshall and D.J. Fenner, but are loaded with talent. They have two of the MWC's best players in Lindsey Drew and Jordan Caroline, plus add in four transfers from Power 5 programs. Two of those being twins Caleb and Cody Martin, who have been huge impacts early, as Caleb leads the team at 25 ppg and Cody is 3rd with 14 ppg. Santa Clara is a quality team and have a couple of nice players in K.J. Feagin and Matt Hauser, but the overall depth isn't that great and this is a team that went just 17-16 last year (4th in the WCC). Even with this game at home, I don't think the Broncos have the talent to keep this one competitive against a NCAA Tournament caliber team in the Wolf Pack. Take Nevada! |
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11-14-17 | San Diego State v. Arizona State +1 | Top | 68-90 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Arizona State + It's been a couple of tough years for head coach Bobby Hurley at Arizona State, but all signs point to year 3 being a breakout season for the Sun Devils. Arizona State brings back two big time scorers on the perimeter in senior guards Tra Holder (16.2 ppg) and Shannon Evans (15.0 ppg). It's one of the best backcourts in the Pac-12. Last year they just didn't have the size inside and had to play 4 guards, which really hurt the defense. That's no longer an issue, as Hurley's Top 25 recruiting class addressed the issue. Freshmen Vitaliy Shibel and juco transfer De'Quon Lake are going to make a big difference this season for the Sun Devils. Lake had 24 points, 8 boards and 3 blocks in the opener, while Shibel only scored 4, he had 8 boards and 4 assists. San Diego State has quite a history as Steve Fisher really turned this program into a mid-major power over the years. Unfortunately for the Aztecs Fisher retired and while there's some nice talent on the roster, I think it's asking a lot for this team to go on the road and get a win here. Take Arizona State! |
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11-13-17 | Coll Of Charleston +17.5 v. Wichita State | Top | 63-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Charleston + Wichita State is getting all kinds of love coming into the season. The Shockers are ranked in the Top 10, which is a big deal for a non-power 5 team. Wichita St looked impressive in their opener, but that was against Missouri-Kansas City. Most will look to back the Shockers here against Charleston, but this is far from another pushover. The Cougars are the clear favorite to win the CAA and are loaded with experience, returning all 5 starters from last year's 25-win team. I don't think the Cougars have enough to pull off the upset, but I see them easily keeping this within the number. Take Charleston! |
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11-13-17 | Cavs -4.5 v. Knicks | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Cavs - I believe all the negative talk early with Cleveland has the Cavs showing great value right now and I really like them here as a short road favorite against the Knicks. While Cleveland is just 3-2 in their last 5, they are painfully close to having a 5-game winning streak, as both losses came by 4-points or less and one of those was at red-hot Houston. New York has been playing well here of late, but most of that has come against bad teams. Everyone knows LeBron loves playing at the Garden and there's extra incentive here for the Cavs after that ugly 95-114 loss at home to these Knicks in the most recent meeting. Look for them to make a statement here. Take Cleveland! |
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11-11-17 | St. Peter's v. La Salle -8.5 | Top | 40-61 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Opening Weekend GAME OF THE MONTH on La Salle - I really like the value here with the Explorers laying single digits at home against the Peacocks. La Salle has two of the best players in the A-10 conference in junior Pookie Powell (13.7 ppg) and senior B.J. Johnson (17.6 ppg). They also bring back experience at the point with senior starter Amor Stukes (4.3 apg). If they can get some solid productions from their bigs, I really think this is a sleeper team to watch out for in the A-10 this year. As for St. Peter's they closed out last year by winning the CIT, but the Peacocks lost 3 starters from their 23-win squad, including their top two scorers in Trevis Wyche and Quadir Welton. Take La Salle! |
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11-08-17 | Lakers +9 v. Celtics | Top | 96-107 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Lakers + I like the value here with LA catching a big number here against the Celtics. While Boston failed to cover in their 120-117 win at Atlanta in their last game, they are still getting way overvalued right now by the books due to the fact that they are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. The Lakers are also playing well right now. They come in having won 3 of their last 4 and have covered the spread in all 4 of these contests. Los Angeles is getting it done on the offensive side of the ball, as they have put up 107 or more in each of their last 4 games. Boston's defense has been great early, but they weren't sharp in their last game, allowing the Hawks to hit 48% from the field. I think LA can do enough here to keep this one within the number. You also have to keep in mind this has to be a tired Celtics team, as they are playing their 6th game in the last 10 days. Boston is just 2-11 ATS in this scheduling spot over the last 2 seasons. They are also just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 home games when they come in having covered 3 of their last 4. Take Los Angeles! |
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11-06-17 | Nets v. Suns UNDER 236 | Top | 98-92 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
5* NBA Late Night VEGAS INSIDER on Nets UNDER With Brooklyn having gone OVER the total in 3 straight games, where all 3 games saw at least 235 combined points and Phoenix having allowed 112 or more points in each of their last 5 games, I think the books have made a big overreaction here with the total for tonight's game and created some big time value on the UNDER. Phoenix ranks second in the NBA in pace, but I just don't see how they are going to have the energy to push the ball up and down the floor tonight. The Suns just finished a 5-game road trip that spanned 9 days with yesterday's game at San Antonio. It's hard enough playing on no rest as it is, but this is just brutal. I look for Phoenix to really try to slow things down and that should be more than enough to keep this below the massive mark set by the books. UNDER is 12-2 in the Nets last 14 after scoring 105 or more points in 3 straight games. It's also 11-4 in the Suns last 15 when coming off a game in which they failed to cover the spread and 5-1 in their last 6 at home against a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER! |
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11-06-17 | Celtics v. Hawks UNDER 205 | Top | 110-107 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hawks UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA action between the Celtics and Hawks. The UNDER is an impressive 6-2 during Boston's 8 game winning streak. The Celtics have held all 8 opponents during this stretch to 94 or fewer points. Atlanta is only averaging 102.7 ppg and scoring roughly 5 points fewer than what their opponents have been allowing on the season (107.4 ppg). While the Hawks defense hasn't been great, Boston's not exactly lighting it up offensively. The Celtics are only scoring 102.9 ppg and big reason for that is they rank in the bottom 5 in pace of play. They figure to play at an even slower pace than normal tonight, as the Celtics are not only playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but their 3rd road game in the last 4 days. Atlanta is also playing for the 3rd time in 4 days, so they too won't be looking to get up and down the floor. UNDER is 6-1 in the Hawks last 7 when playing on 0 days of rest and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Celtics last 9 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game and 25-8 in their last 33 road games when coming off a win. Take the UNDER! |
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11-05-17 | Pacers v. Knicks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Knicks UNDER I really like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's matchup between the Knicks and Pacers. I believe the number here has been inflated due to recent results, as the OVER has cashed in each of the Pacers last two games and each of the last 3 for the Knicks. These Sunday games have to be the least popular day for NBA players to play and it often leads to sluggish showings on the offensive side of the ball. That's been the case for both of these teams, as the UNDER is 15-6 in the Knicks last 21 games played on Sunday and 6-2 in the Pacers last 8 on Sunday. We also got a great system in play here favoring this one to finish below the mark. UNDER is 44-18 (71%) going back to 1996 when you have a total of 210 to 219.5 where the road team comes in having scored 105 or more points in 2 straight games and is facing an opponent that has had a combined scored of 215 or more in each of their last 3 games. Take the UNDER! |
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11-03-17 | Rockets -8 v. Hawks | Top | 119-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockets - I'll gladly back Houston laying single digits on the road against the Hawks. The Rockets are coming off their best performance since their opening win at Golden State, as they knocked off the Knicks 119-97 in New York. Houston finally got going from long-distance with 19 3-pointers and their poor shooting from the outside had played a big role in their slow start. Atlanta simply doesn't have the talent to keep this one competitive. The Hawks have lost 7 straight since their opening win over the Mavs, who are another team competing for the honor of worst team in the league. Atlanta is one of the worst shooting teams, connecting unjust 42.6% of their field goal attempts. They are also not good defensively, giving up 109 ppg. Adding incentive here for Houston is the fact that they have lost 7 straight to Atlanta, with the last win in the series coming all the way back in 2013. Don't doubt for a second that's not on the mind of the Rockets players. That should be more than enough motivation for them to turn this into a blowout. Take Houston! |
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10-28-17 | Pistons v. Clippers UNDER 208 | Top | 95-87 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
5* NBA Late Night BAILOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Pistons UNDER I like the value here with UNDER quite a bit in Saturday's late night action between the Pistons and Clippers. Los Angeles just allowed 100 points for the first time this season, as they gave up 103 points to the Blazers. The Clippers are still giving up just 91.7 ppg and that number drops to just 86 ppg at home. Detroit is a team they can lock down on and keep from putting up a big number. The Pistons have benefited from playing a soft schedule when it comes to the defenses they have faced. In fact, they are averaging just 106 ppg against teams that on average give up 107 ppg. Detroit is also not bad defensively, as they are allowing just 102 ppg and the Clippers aren't as dynamic offensively without Chris Paul running the point. The Pistons scored 122 in their last game, but that's actually a good thing for us, as the UNDER is 25-11 in Detroit's last 36 after a game where they scored 120 or more points. UNDER is also 5-1 in their last 6 home games and 4-0 in their last 4 when they are playing a team that scored 100+ in their previous game. Take the UNDER! |
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10-25-17 | Grizzlies v. Mavs UNDER 195 | Top | 94-103 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
5* NBA Best Bet 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Mavs UNDER The Grizzlies are come in allowing just 94.0 ppg and that's really impressive when you consider they have faced both the Warriors and Rockets. Memphis held Golden State's high-powered attack to just 101 points and two days later held Houston to a mere 90 points. Clearly the Grizzlies are locked in on the defensive side of the ball and I see no reason why they won't shut down a Dallas offense that is as limited as they come. In fact, the Mavericks are so limited they are trying to slow the game down and grind out each possession just to be competitive. That's going to make it hard for either team to eclipse the 100 point mark and I wouldn't be shocked if this one finished closer to 180 points. Keep in mind they played a game last year towards the beginning of the season where they combined for a whopping 144 points. UNDER is 25-9 in the Grizzlies last 34 road games off a win over a division rival and 22-7-1 in the Mavericks last 30 games after they scored 100 or more point sin their previous game. Take the UNDER! |
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10-24-17 | Pelicans v. Blazers UNDER 221.5 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers UNDER The books have set the bar way too high for tonight's Western Conference clash between the Blazers and Pelicans. Portland will finally get to play a game at home after opening the season with 3 straight on the road and have had a full two days off to get back their legs. I expect a big time defensive effort here by a very underrated Blazers team. They should be able to keep the Pelicans in check, as there's not a lot you have to worry about outside of the two bigs in Cousins and Davis. Prior to giving up 113 to Milwaukee the Blazers held the Pacers to 96 and the Suns to a mere 76. I think this one ends up closer to 210 than 220. UNDER is 15-4 in the Pelicans last 19 road games after they scored 110 or more points in each of their previous two games and 13-3 in their last 16 road games after covering the spread in 2 straight. Take the UNDER! |
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10-23-17 | Hornets v. Bucks UNDER 205 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Bucks UNDER This might seem like a low total given the Bucks are giving up 108.7 ppg, but that's more of who Milwaukee has played. They opened the season at Boston before hosting the Cavs and Blazers. They held both the Celtics and Blazers UNDE 43% shooting and should be able to do it here against a Hornets team that is only hitting 41.5% from the field in two games against the Pistons and Hawks. Charlotte is playing a much slower-paced game with the focus on defense and the offense running through big man Dwight Howard. I look for both of these teams to struggle to get in any kind of rhythm offensively and don't think either side will be able to reach the 100 point mark in this one. Take the UNDER! |
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10-21-17 | Blazers v. Bucks UNDER 214.5 | Top | 110-113 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers UNDER The books have set the bar too high on the total for Saturday's non-conference matchup between the Blazers and Bucks. Portland's defense has been exceptional to start the year. The Blazers held the Suns to just 76 points in their opener and that same Phoenix team score 130 the next night. They followed it up by holding the Pacers to just 96 and Indiana had scored 140 in their previous game. Bucks are talented young team with a great player in Antetokounmpo, but aren't a great 3-point shooting team and are strong defensively. Exactly what you look for when you want a low-scoring game. I also think the tempo of this game won't be up to normal pace with both teams playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. For Portland it's their 3rd road game in 4 nights and Milwaukee just put it all on the line last night against the LeBron and the Cavs at home. Backing this play is a great long-term system. The UNDER is 58-25 (70%) over the last 5 seasons (3-0 to start 2017) when you have a total of 200 or more in a non-conference game with a team that averaged 14 or fewer turnovers/game the previous year (Blazers). Take the UNDER! |
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10-21-17 | 76ers v. Raptors OVER 215 | Top | 94-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
5* 76ers/Raptors VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Raptors OVER I look for these two teams to fly OVER the total set here by the books. Philadelphia scored just 92 in the loss at home to Boston last night and are going to be without one of their best defenders in Embiid, who isn't playing back-to-backs just yet. I think the entire 76ers team struggles on defense being on the road with no rest against a potent Toronto offense that needed just 83 shots to score 117 in their opener. The Raptors did allow a Bulls team that was missing half their roster to score 100, so we can expect Ben Simmons and company to at least hit that mark. Keep in mind that Philadelphia had 115 in their opener at Washington. OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings overall and 6-2 in the last 8 times they have played in Toronto. OVER was 14-6 in 76ers last 20 games last year when playing on no rest and 7-0 in Toronto's last 7 home games when playing against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the OVER! |
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10-20-17 | Magic v. Nets OVER 223.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets OVER Defense is clearly not a priority for the Nets. Brooklyn ranked 2nd to last in points allowed last year at 112.5 ppg and started out the 2017 season by giving up 140 to a Pacers team that lost their best scorer in Paul George. The big difference is that the Nets now have some offensive fire-power to stay with teams. They scored 131 against the Pacers and even with the loss of Lin, should continue to score at a high rate. Orlando put up 116 in their opener against the Heat, while giving up 109 and that was with Miami shooting just 43% from the field. Both these teams want to push the pace and play in the open court, which should have us flying over the mark set by the books. History is also on our side here. The OVER is hitting at a 61% clip since 1996 when you have a team off a combined score of 225 or more against a team off a combined score of 235 or more. Take the OVER! |
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10-19-17 | Knicks v. Thunder UNDER 215 | Top | 84-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
5* Knicks/Thunder NO LIMIT Top Play on Thunder/Knicks UNDER This is just too many points for this matchup. I believe we are seeing a high total here because of the fact that the Thunder now have 3 superstars in Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. As good as those 3 are, it's going to take some time for these guys to form a chemistry on offense. George and Anthony are accustomed to being "the guy," but will have to learn to take a back seat to Westbrook. I think it takes as much as the first 20 games before this team really gels. The other thing is the depth isn't what it use to be. The Thunder are going struggle to get a whole lot out of their bench. There's also a decent chance the starters don't play the entire game here, as the Knicks have the makings of one of the worst teams in the league. New York just doesn't have the offensive fire-power and in today's game where everyone is lighting up the scoreboard, they didn't even average 100 ppg in the preseason when no one is playing defense. I don't see the offense doing much here on the road in what's going to be electric atmosphere inside Chesapeake Energy Arena. Take the UNDER! |
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06-12-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Warriors - There's no question the refs were doing their part to extend the series at least one more game with how they officiated that 1st quarter of Game 5, which Cleveland managed to score a ridiculous 49 points in the 1st quarter and 86 in the 1st half. The Cavs were shooting free throws left and right early. That played a huge role in the game. More than anything them getting off to that strong start gave them confidence, which led to a great shooting night. It also got the Warriors in foul trouble and didn't let them play with the same intensity on defense. It's not that Golden State wasn't committing any fouls, it's just they weren't calling the same fouls on Cleveland on the other side of the ball. With the series back in Golden State, I look for the Warriors to get a more favorable whistle and that should be all they need to not only win, but to win in blowout fashion. Take Golden State! |
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06-09-17 | Warriors -6 v. Cavs | Top | 116-137 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Warriors - I'll be the first to admit that I was fortunate to cover with the Warriors in Game 3, but I'm not jumping off them, even with a bigger number in Game 4. Cleveland played as well as they could and had to feel like they had the game won before that epic collapse in the final 3 minutes. I just don't see the Cavs emotionally and physically having what it takes to keep Game 4 competitive. Yes, it's the NBA Finals, but going out with a fight isn't as big a deal for a team that just won the title last year. On the flip side of this, I see no letdown for the Warriors, who are not only chasing a perfect 16-0 record in the postseason, but I believe they want to return the favor and celebrate the title on Cleveland's floor after losing Game 7 at home last year. You have to be 100% locked in to beat this Warriors team and I just don't see being the case for Cleveland, who I think will be quick to throw in the towel once Golden State gets anywhere close to a double-digit lead. Take Golden State! |
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06-07-17 | Warriors -3.5 v. Cavs | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors - As much as everyone wants Cleveland to make this a series and win Game 3 at home, I just don't think it's going to happen. It would be one thing if Golden State finished off the Cavs last year after taking a 3-1 lead, but because they failed to do so, I don't see them taking any game for grantit. I look for them to come out 100% locked in on taking a 3-0 lead and I just don't know what Cleveland is going to do to stop them. LeBron is averaging a triple-double and they are getting beat by 20+ points/game. Even if the Cavs' role players step up and play better, I still think it takes a near perferct performance just for them to win this game. I also hear alot about how the first two games last year in Golden State were blowouts. That team didn't have Durant and he's the MVP of the finals right now. Take Golden State! |
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06-04-17 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 220.5 | Top | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals NO LIMIT Top Play on OVER After a relatlvely low-scoring Game 1, I think we are seeing some decent value here on the total and it going over the mark in Game 2. Keep in mind the total was as high as 227 in Game 1. Golden State scored 113 and it could have been a lot more had they not missed so many easy shots around the rim. The real killer to the total in Game 1 was the Cavs inability to get their offense going, as well as they just shot the ball bad. Cleveland shot just 34.9% from the field. What people overlook is the Warriors also didn't have a great shooting performance, as they hit only 42.5%. Their worst mark from the field since a regular season meeting against the 76ers back on March 14. The lopsided score also aided a lower scoring Game 1, though I think we could see another blowout and this game still fly over the mark. Take the OVER! |
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06-01-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -7 | Top | 91-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors - These two teams are clearly in a class above the rest of the league, I just feel that the Warriors are the more complete team. James is the best player in the game, but he's going up against 4 of the best players in the game in Durant, Curry, Thompson and Green, plus I feel that Golden State has the deeper roster. You also can't discount the revenge here with the Warriors after blowing a 3-1 lead in last year's Finals. It's also worth pointing out that the home team has dominated the spread in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, going 11-1 ATS in the last 12. On top of that, James' teams are 1-6 ATS in Game 1 of the Finals. Take Golden State! |
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05-25-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +11 | Top | 135-102 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Celtics + Not a big surprise that Boston is a bigger home dog here in Game 5 than they were in Games 1 and 2 with the loss of star point guard Isaiah Thomas, but I'm not so sure the loss of Thomas is as bad as people think. The Celtics won their first game without him in Cleveland and followed that up with another strong showing in a loss in Game 4, where Irving went off and the Cavs didn't miss in the 2nd half (shot 65% from the field). How are they better? As good of a scorer as Thomas is, he's a major liability on defense, especially when he's got to guard Irving and get put in pick-n-rolls with LeBron. At the same time, Boston's offense is more of a system than anything, much like the Spurs, which can give teams problem. I actually think the loss of Thomas has helped them move the ball better. I don't see this team going down without a fight and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. Take BOSTON! |