Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-26-13 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 211 | Top | 95-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer Mavs/Bucks UNDER
Both teams are coming off home losses with Milwaukee losing to Atlanta as a -4.5 favorite and Dallas losing to the Lakers as a -3 point favorite. You should play the under in a game where the total is over 200 and both teams are off an upset loss as a favorite and at least one of those losses came as a home favorite. This system is 86-52 (62.3%) the last 138 times the situation has occurred. The under is 5-0-1 in Milwaukee |
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02-21-13 | Tennessee-Martin +8.5 v. Tennessee Tech | Top | 68-83 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Tennessee Martin +
The road team is getting too many points in a game that features two evenly matched teams. Tennessee-Martin is coming off a bad loss to SE Missouri State and the oddsmakers have over adjusted based on the result of that game. You should always play on road underdogs of 10 or more points like Tennessee-Martin after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, in February games. This system is 97-54 (64.2%) since 1997. The wear and tear of a road game is much harder on some teams than it is others. Tennessee Tech is one of those teams that has had trouble handling the travel and extra energy involved with coming off a stretch on the road. They are 4-13 ATS in home games after playing a road game over the last three seasons. In a game involving two teams that are evenly matched statistically we have to take the road team. Tennessee-Martin is a better free throw shooting team, and getting this many points when there are no key injuries is just too many to pass up. |
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02-20-13 | Santa Clara +13.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 42-85 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
5* HEAVY HITTER on Santa Clara +
This game falls into a system to play against favorites of 10 points or more after 6 or more consecutive wins when playing in a February game. The system is 107-65 (62.2%) over the last five seasons. If you look at Gonzaga |
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02-19-13 | Utah State v. Brigham Young -11.5 | Top | 68-70 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
5* CBB NO DOUBT ROUT on BYU -
The BYU Cougars are 34-18 ATS in home games against teams who average 6 or less steals per game. Utah State is a slowdown team attempting less than 50 or less shots per game on the road. The combination of a slow offense and a defense that can |
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02-15-13 | Wisconsin-Green Bay v. Cleveland State UNDER 129.5 | Top | 66-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
5* Total NO BRAINER on Wisconsin Green Bay UNDER
Wisconsin Green Bay |
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02-14-13 | Southern Utah v. Portland State -2 | Top | 69-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
5* NO DOUBT ROUT on Portland State -
The Portland State is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record dating back to last season. The Vikings have to be looking forward to this home game against a weak Southern Utah team after completing a two game road stretch last Saturday. All five of the Vikings wins have come on their home court so they are definitely a more comfortable team in front of their own fan base. Southern Utah averages just 64.2 points per game on the road, which is 9.8 per game less than the Vikings are scoring on their home court. The Thunderbirds are averaging a disgusting 19 turnovers per game on the road, 25 personal fouls and getting only 4 steals. Their defense is allowing 78.1 points on the road and 48% shooting from the field. The Vikings are out for revenge in this game after getting beat in Southern Utah back on January 24th. This game should turn out quite a bit different since the Vikings play well at home and the Thunderbirds have been horrible on the road. |
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02-13-13 | Cal St-Fullerton +6 v. Long Beach State | Top | 65-85 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
5* CBB NEVER LOST SYSTEM on Fullerton +
Fullerton has a lot of offensive firepower and I think it's going to be difficult for Long Beach to keep up with them tonight. The Titans are 12-11 overall but an impressive 7-6 on the road. As a visitor they are putting up 84.5 ppg on 50.6% shooting and they have hit 44.1% of their 3-point attempts. The outside shooting is important because they take roughly four more three point shots per game than their opponents normally allow. Long Beach on the other hand only puts up 68.8 ppg and relies on a defense that is holding opponents to 63.8 ppg on 38.4% shooting at home. The problem is that this team has allowed teams that shoot 34.1% from 3-point range to connect on 35.4% of their outside shots, while also attempting three more per game than usual. This fits right into Fullerton's wheelhouse. Fullerton will be out for some revenge after losing at home by 10 points to the 49ers earlier in the year. However, in that game they made only 5-of-24 from behind the arc. Obviously if they would have hit at their normal rate they would have easily won the game. I think oddsmakers have over-adjusted after that performance and the Titans win this one easily. Fullerton is 8-0 ATS as an underdog this season and 6-0 ATS on the road after having lost two of their last three the last two. |
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02-09-13 | Tennessee State +7 v. Murray State | Top | 48-69 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
5* Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year on Tennessee State +
If you take a look at the common opponents these two teams have played, Tennessee State stands at 8-2 while Murray State is 8-2. The Tigers are actually winning by 7.7 ppg while the Racers are only winning by 5.6 ppg. In those games, Tennessee State is shooting 47% compared to Murray State's 43.5%, holding opponents to 41% compared to 41.9%, then nearly dead even in turnovers and rebounds. These two teams are very evenly matched, which makes the points very enticing to begin with, but then you have to couple it with the fact that this is a letdown game for Murray State after pulling off the upset win at home against Belmont. That Thursday night game came down to the wire, and now after just one day of rest they have to take on another quality opponent. Tennessee State also played on Thursday, but they took on Austin Peay in a game that they were favored by six on the road, so they could spend a little practice time leading up to that game focusing on today's opponent. I think you'll see the Tigers prepared and ready for the Racers here today. |
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02-07-13 | Maryland Terrapins -4.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 60-55 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
5* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Maryland -
I like how these two teams matchup with each other here tonight. Maryland is shooting 47.5% from the floor against teams allowing 43% while holding opponents to 36.3% shooting who normally hit 43.7%. Virginia Tech on the other hand is average at both shooting and field goal defense. What Virginia Tech does do well is get to the line, but Maryland is a team that doesn't foul so that is not going to help them out much here tonight. Another area I think the Terps will dominate is on the boards. Maryland is average 43 rebounds on the year while their opponents only pull down 32. Virginia Tech is an average rebounding team that has lost the battle of the boards by 26 the last three games. The glass should belong to the Terps. Maryland is coming off a dominant showing against Wake Forest on Saturday. They not only won by 26, but they also shot 67% while holding the Demon Deacons to 34.4%. They have won the rebounding battle by a total of 46 over their past three games and head coach Mark Turgeon is 21-9 ATS after four straight games out rebounding his opponent by six or more while the Terps are 6-0 ATS the last three seasons in that situation. Virginia Tech has lost four in a row and is coming off a heartbreaker to North Carolina. The Tar Heels beat the Hokies by 12 points in overtime. I think it's going to be tough for them to respond after coming so close to a big win, only to completely fall apart late. The Hokies haven't covered a home ACC game the last two years, going 0-10 ATS during that span. The last time these two teams met was January 5th and the game went just like you would expect. Maryland won by 23 while shooting 51.7% and winning the rebounding battle. Virginia Tech shot just 37.3% and I don't see why tonight will be a whole lot different. You want to play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revering a blowout road loss of 20 points or more, off a game they covered or loss. This situation is 41-14 (74.5%) ATS the last five seasons. |
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02-06-13 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 202 | Top | 99-105 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
5* TOTAL NO BRAINER on Mavs/Blazers UNDER
We are getting some value in this line tonight because Dallas has been so bad defensively on the year, giving up 103.1 ppg. They just gave up 112 points in a 21 point loss to Oklahoma City, but teams like Dallas normally buckle down on that end of the floor after a bad loss. You want to play on teams that are giving up 103+ ppg on the season after a blowout loss by 20 points or more. These teams go UNDER at a pace of 223-145 (60.6%) since 1996. Dallas is actually allowing 4 ppg less at home than they do on the road, and their 101 ppg in Dallas is a little inflated from playing the likes of Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Denver, and Houston in a good portion of those games. Portland isn't going to keep pace with those teams when they only score 94.1 ppg on the road for the season. These two teams have met twice this season and this is the highest total yet. Last time they faced each other Dallas shot 50% and 53.5% from behind the arc, both teams shot 78.3% or better from the line, and they only managed to score 210 points. In the first meeting Dallas shot 61.5% from the floor and 50% from the 3-point line and scored 114. I don't think you can expect out of this world shooting numbers a third time in a row. |
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02-06-13 | Minnesota v. Michigan State UNDER 131 | Top | 50-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
5* BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Michigan State/Minnesota UNDER
These two teams played back on New Year's Eve to a final score of 63-76, but in that game Minnesota shot 56.6% from the floor and 37.5% from behind the arc, while Michigan State hit 45.5% of their 3-point attempts. With how well these two schools play defense, I can't see those numbers repeating here today. Add the fact that we have a couple of extra points to play with from the previous total of 128 and you start to see a lot of value. Both of these teams play excellent defense. The Gophers are only allowing 61.4 ppg on 39.9% shooting while Michigan State is giving up 55.9 ppg on 34.9% shooting on their home floor. Neither team forces turnovers nor turns the ball over very often, so I'm not expecting any easy buckets in transition either. Both are good rebounding teams that keeps their opponents off the offensive glass, again negating the chance for easy put back buckets close to the rim. I know both teams shoot at a high rate and Michigan State clocks into this game hitting 46.8% of their field goals, but that doesn't mean they are going to shoot well tonight. Minnesota is 96-67 (59%) UNDER against good shooting teams who make 45% or more of their shots since 1997 and that number moves to 64-40 (62%) UNDER if the opposing team also limits opponents to 42% shooting or less. The Spartans have played back-to-back high scoring games against Indiana and Illinois. They shot 59.5% against the Illini and 45% against Indiana, but they also allowed 45% and 51% in those respective games. With five days off from the Illinois game until tonight, you can bet Izzo has his boys working on tightening things up on the defensive side of the floor. Michigan State is 35-17 UNDER after two or more straight overs since 1997. The Spartans are also 22-11 (67%) UNDER off a win against a conference rival and 13-4 (76%) UNDER if that win was by six or less points the last three seasons. |
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02-02-13 | New Orleans Hornets v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 187.5 | Top | 86-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
5* Total NO BRAINER on Timberwolves/Hornets OVER
Minnesota has been playing some high scoring games lately. Both them and their opponents have scored 100+ in three of the last four games, including lats night's 100-111 loss to the LA Lakers. Minnesota is typically a low scoring team, but obviously they are pushing the tempo a little bit here recently. Plus, the Wolves are 13-3 OVER when playing a team with a losing record this year. New Orleans has now allowed 100 or more points in seven of their last eight games after last night's 98-113 loss to Denver. They are 15-7 OVER when the total is between 180-189.5 this season and 12-3 OVER when playing a team with a losing record. These two teams have met twice already this year with final scores of 113-102 and 92-104, both well over today's total. I just can't see these two teams deciding today is the day they want to play defense, so I think you'll see another final score in the 190's or even higher. A solid system supports our play that says to take the OVER when the total is between 180-189.5 and one tam is off a road loss by 10 points or more and playing their 3rd game in four nights. The OVER is 114-75 (60.3%) in this situation the last five years. |
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02-02-13 | South Dakota +18 v. North Dakota State | Top | 46-65 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
5* Summit League Game of the Year on South Dakota +
These two teams met back in early January and North Dakota State won by 26 points. However, a closer look at that game shows that the Bison hit 63.8% of their shots and 52.6% from behind the arc. They also hit 80% from the free throw line. Now, I know North Dakota State is a good shooting team but that was an aberration that significantly stretched out the margin of victory and gave us some line value with this game here today. South Dakota has played 11 games against common opponents and while they are only 5-6, they are actually outscoring those foes by a total of 2.9 ppg. North Dakota State on the other hand clocks in at 9-3, but is outscoring those opponents by 12.7 ppg. The weak schedule the Bison has played also inflates their overall stats. North Dakota State's opponents get outscored by 2.8 ppg, while South Dakota's actually average a 1.2 point win. One advantage to this matchup is South Dakota gets tot he free throw line, taking three more free throw attempts per game than their opponents normally allow. North Dakota State does foul a little more than average teams, so the Coyotes should be able to take advantage of their team free throw rate of 78.2% in this game. A couple of systems support our play here. You want to fade home favorites playing their 2nd game in three days in February. This situation is 102-55 (65%) the last five seasons. If you are fading double digit favorites off a blowout win by 20 points or more taking on an opponent off a double digit loss you would be 74-40 (65%) the last five seasons. You want to take double digit underdogs revenging a home loss of 20 points or more. These teams are 436-298 (59.4%) over the last five seasons and when that team is off a conference road loss those numbers jump to 164-96 (63.1%). |
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02-02-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Atlanta Hawks -6.5 | Top | 93-76 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
5* EASTERN CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Hawks -
The Bulls are expected to be without Carlos Boozer today due to a hamstring injury, Kirk Hinrich to an arm injury, and Joakim Noah due to plant fascilitis. The injuries to those two forced Deng and Gibson to play all 48 minutes last night plus Robison and Butler both logged 40+. Now the Bulls have to fly down to Atlanta to face the Hawks on no rest and when you are banged up and playing on no rest that is a recipe for disaster. You think Atlanta isn't going to be up for this game? The Hawks were embarrassed by the Bulls last time these two teams faced each other on January 14th. The Hawks scored only 58 points and lost by 39 points. This team has played a lot better since then and has won four of their last five games, the only loss was by two points in New York v. the Knicks. I don't think Atlanta is going to take their foot off the gas tonight. This team will go all out for 48 minutes trying to embarrass Chicago like what happened to them last time. With Chicago so short-handed, this one has blowout written all over it. |
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02-01-13 | Washington Wizards +6.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 76-85 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
5* NBA NO DOUBT ATS ROUT on Washington +6.5
I'll take the upstart Wizards tonight taking on a Memphis team in disarray. The Grizzlies had to get under the salary cap so traded Rudy Gay to Toronto. This team looked great at the start of the season and hopes were high they could make a serious playoff push. Then the trade rumors began and finally concluded with Gay being shipped out of town. Last night the team played in Oklahoma City and was beat up by 17 points. Now, they have to travel home on short rest to take on Washington. The Wizards are an under-valued team that recently won 10 straight games against the spread before back-to-back losses to the Kings and Sixers. Now it seems everyone is off their band wagon again and they are showing some value tonight. The Wizards are 7-5 over their last 12 games and it's no surprise why. John Wall returned 11 games ago and has provided this team a spark. He's average 6.5 assists per game and 14.1 ppg. You have two teams heading in opposite directions here tonight. Ride the team on the way up as Memphis will continue to struggle. You don't ever mess with the chemistry of a contender, as the Grizzlies are going to learn the hard way. |
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02-01-13 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 183 | Top | 89-102 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
5* NBA Pre-All Star TOTAL of the YEAR on Heat/Pacers UNDER
This should be a defensive battle tonight and I love the UNDER in a big way. Miami is coming off a 105-85 win at Brooklyn while the Pacers are coming off a 98-79 win over Detroit. Both teams played solid defense and I expect that to continue here tonight. Plus, that sets us up for a nice situation where you want to play the UNDER when a team is coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more against an opponent of a blowout of 20 points or more. The UNDER is 202-132 (60.5%) in this situation since 1996. Where the total is 180-189.5 and a team that scores 99+ ppg is off a blowout win by 20 or more like Miami is, the UNDER is 105-57 (64.8%) since 1996. When teams play hard it normally leads to lower scoring games. When do teams play their hardest? Against other good teams and when the national spotlight is on them. Tonight this game will be on ESPN and both teams clock in with good records, Miami is 29-13 and Indiana is 27-19. Both want to make a statement to their opponents. Miami wants to show Indiana they aren't in their league while the Pacers want to prove they are. When you get two good teams playing on Friday nights the UNDER is 149-99 (60.1%) the last five seasons. The Pacers are allowing teams that score 97.3 ppg to put up only 86.7 ppg against them at home. Indiana is scoring only 91.8 ppg on the year against teams that allow 95 ppg. Miami on the other hand is way better at home than on the road. Away from South Beach this team is scoring 98.6 ppg against opponents scoring 97.7 but they are holding opponents to just under their season average. These two teams met in Indiana back on January 8th and the final score was 87-77 Indiana. I think the Pacers are going to slow this game way down again, and both teams take defense seriously. Points will be at a premium tonight as this game stays way under the total. |
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02-01-13 | Rider +8 v. Fairfield | Top | 59-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
5* Friday Night NO BRAINER on Rider +
Rider is going to be out for revenge against Fairfield here tonight. They lost back on December 9th loss at home, but in that game the Broncs shot just 37.8% from the field and made two of their seven 3-point attempts. They also turned the ball over 29 times which is uncharacteristically high for a team averaging only 16 a game and a Fairfield defense that forces 14 per contest. There is also some value in this line due to the face that Rider is off two home upset home losses. Rebounding and defense were issues in those games and you can bet the Broncos worked hard in practice this week to correct those mistakes. The Stags on the ether hand are coming off a pair of wins, but that stopped the bleeding on a five game losing streak. This fits a nice little system that says to fade home favorites off two straight conference wins when they are playing a team off two straight double digit home losses. This situation is 44-13 ATS (77.2%) since 1997. The numbers support our play here tonight. The Broncs are dead even on the year, scoring 64 ppg while giving up 64.1 while the Stags are outscoring their foes by 2.2 ppg. The difference is that Rider has played the tougher schedule which makes these teams even more even than their margins. The matchup advantage to watch will be how well Rider does getting to the line. They typically shoot a higher rate of free throws than their opponents normally allow, while Fairfield is known to be a foul machine. Those extra shots from the charity stripe will add up, and keep this game close. I'll take the points in a game the Broncos could easily win outright. |
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01-31-13 | Dallas Mavericks v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 206 | Top | 97-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
5* Thursday Night Total of the Month on Warriors/Mavs UNDER
Dallas has scored 104 or more points in nine straight games now and with Golden State's history of high scoring games we have a lot of value in the UNDER here tonight. Dallas has gone OVER in five straight games while Golden State has gone OVER in four in a row. To see how much padding that gives us here tonight you only have to go back to the last time these two teams met, when the total was set at 200. Six points is quite a jump for a same-season rematch game, and it's too much. Jackson has instilled a defensive philosophy into his young Warrior team. They are actually holding opponents to just 96.6 ppg at home this year, below their opponents average of 97.8 ppg. They are doing it by holding them to 42.1% from the floor and 30.9% from the 3-point line. The Warriors are a team that haven't had a lot of national TV exposure over the past few years, and I think these players are going to relish the chance to shine on TNT tonight. They will bring an all-out intensity on the defensive end of the floor and keep this score low. Take the UNDER! |
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01-31-13 | Troy +11.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
5* CBB NO BRAINER on Troy +
This is too many points for Troy to be getting against Western Kentucky. The Trojans are 4-6 in the conference, but the Hilltoppers are only 5-6 themselves. The margin of victory in conference games shows Troy at -3 and Western Kentucky at dead even and they have played very similar conference schedules. The first time these two teams met Western Kentucky won by four points. However, they grabbed 20 more rebounds than the Trojans, including 13 more on the offensive side of the ball. They do have a small rebounding advantage, but you can bet Troy concentrates on hitting the boards tonight to even up that advantage and keep this game close. Plus, they had Jamal Crook that game and he's been out since December 16th. It's no surprise these team was 8-3 with him and 3-8 without him. Troy continues to be under-valued by the oddsmakers. They have now won four of six and have covered fix of six. Western Kentucky on the other hand has lost three in a row, and six of seven both straight up and against the spread. They are shooting horrifically, not having broken the 40% mark in their last three games. Their sole win during this stretch was against a terrible Lafayette team at home when they held their opponent to 28.8% shooting. A solid system supports our play here that says you want to take double digit underdogs revenging a home loss. These teams are 762-553 (58%) the last five seasons. When the underdog is off an upset win as a road underdog the system tightens to 54-21 (72%). |
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01-30-13 | Chicago Bulls -1.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 104-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
5* NBA NO LIMIT on Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are out for some double revenge here tonight as Milwaukee has came into Chicago twice this year and pulled off the victory. You can bet Chicago is going to want to make a statement as to who the team to beat in the Central division is here tonight. Milwaukee is off a win last night in Detroit and is coming back for a back-to-back on their home floor, while Chicago has had a night off since their easy win over Charlotte so the rest factor is also with the Bulls. The Bucks have been hot lately winning five of six and are now just 2.5 games behind Chicago in the Central division race. You can bet they have the Bulls full attention and tonight Chicago is going to want to win this one badly to show everyone this is their division. A matchup advantage can be found at the free throw line, where Chicago is better than the league average at getting to the stripe and they hit 78% of their attempts. Milwaukee fouls more than most teams do so Chicago should get a chance at plenty of free ones here tonight. Take the Bulls as they pick up the win in Milwaukee. |
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01-30-13 | William Mary +8 v. Delaware | Top | 56-66 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
5* CBB NO BRAINER on William & Mary +
We played on Delaware Monday night to end their three game losing streak both straight up and at the pay window and they came through for us against Drexel, but due to that upset win they are laying too many points here tonight to William & Mary. Drexel got off to a great start in that game and had a double digit lead late but nearly blew the game and cost themselves a win. They are on short rest and after an emotional win like that I think this team is going to be a little spent coming into this matchup. If you look at these two teams you see very even 8-11 to 9-11 records, but the scoring margins tell a different story. The Tribe are actually outscoring their opponents by 0.3 ppg while the Fighting Blue Hens are losing by 1.4 ppg. The Tribe are only 2-6 in the conference, but they have lost two games this year on the road in double overtime so they could just as easily be 4-4. I'll take the large number of points here with an undervalued team taking on an opponent on short rest. |
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01-26-13 | UCLA v. Arizona St UNDER 141.5 | Top | 60-78 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
5* Pac-12 Total of the Year on UCLA/Arizona State UNDER
Both of these teams are off some high scoring games, but I think points will be at a premium here tonight. Arizona State is coming off an overtime win against USC on Thursday night by a score of 98-93. They shot over 50% and allowed over 49%. This is a team that allowed five of six opponents to shoot less than 37.5% at the end of December and beginning of January, so I think they will tighten things up after a defensive lapse last time out. For the season they are allowing opponents to shoot only 38.6% on their home floor. UCLA has been playing some higher scoring games this year than in year's past, but they are scoring 9 less points per game on the road than they are at home. they do not shoot a lot of three point baskets, so they don't get points in a hurry, but they also defend the three well, allowing opponents to shoot just 29% against them. Neither team fouls, so points from the charity stripe won't be easy to come by either. This will be a low scoring game and the odds makers have over adjusted for what happened last time out. Take the UNDER as it should cash with ease. |
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01-26-13 | Dartmouth +16.5 v. Harvard | Top | 77-82 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
5* IVY LEAGUE NO BRAINER OF THE YEAR on Dartmouth +
Dartmouth isn't very good, but this is a lot of points to be getting here today. They are only 4-11 on the year, but they are losing by a score of 64.9 to 60.3 so their record is worse than they really are. Harvard is a good team that comes into this game at 9-6 but they play at a slow pace, so beating a team by nearly 20 points is a tall order in my mind. They haven't attempted more than 48 shots in any of their last four games. Both of these teams might be a little rusty to start out, since Dartmouth has each has played just one time since they last met back on 1/12. Harvard won that game by 10 points, but they aren't going to shoot 60%+ from the field again so getting to a double digit victory seems like a stretch to me. Dartmouth is a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road when playing against a team with a winning record the second half of the last three seasons while Harvard is 0-7 ATS at home after two straight games in which they attempted 50 or less shots the last two years. A solid system supports our play here that say to take double digit underdogs who are revenging a home loss v. an opponent. These teams are 761-552 (58%) ATS over the last five seasons, but when you tighten it up where the team is revenging a double digit home loss the system is 394-263 (60%). |
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01-24-13 | Tennessee-Martin +5.5 v. Eastern Illinois | Top | 56-69 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
5* CBB NO BRAINER on Tennessee-Martin +
I'll take the points here with the Skyhawks. Eastern Illinois is one of the worst defensive teams I have seen, allowing opponents to make 48.2% of their shots on the season. I know that Tennessee-Martin isn't going to set the nets on fire with how they shoot, but they should get some easy buckets tonight. I also like the fact that the Panthers slow the pace down so much with only 60 possessions per game. When you have a slow down team like this who allows such a hefty field goal percentage, the points are too good to pass up. Tennessee-Martin is 15-3 ATS against teams who average 53 or less shots per game the last three years while Eastern Illinois is 0-7 ATS against teams winning less than 40% of their games the last three, a big reason they are 1-12 ATS as a home favorite during that time. |
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01-23-13 | Wright State v. Youngstown State -3 | Top | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
5* NO DOUBT BLOWOUT on Youngstown State -
Wright State is a good team but they should be getting more points in this situation. This team is coming off a tough stretch, they played Saturday against a good Valparaiso team and only lost by six, then came back on Monday and won at Detroit. However, this will be their third game in five days, which is a rare occurrence for college basketball's regular season. Youngstown State had several days to prepare so they should be more ready for this one. People will look at Wright State's 14-5 record against Youngstown's 10-8 and cringe, but looking at the margin of victory you will see 5.4 ppg for Wright and 4.5 ppg for Youngstown, so these teams are closer than you think. Add in the rest factor and the home court advantage and this team should be laying six plus. |
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01-19-13 | Sacramento Kings v. Charlotte Bobcats OVER 204.5 | Top | 97-93 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
5* Total NO BRAINER on Bobcats/Kings OVER
Two terrible defenses collide on Saturday night and I'm all over the OVER here. The Kings are allowing 103.3 ppg while the Bobcats are giving up 103.5 ppg. Opponents are shooting 45.8% against Sacramento and 46.1% against Charlotte (including 39% from behind the arc). The Bobcats have and some trouble scoring lately and that had caused the UNDER to hit in four straight games, but they broke out of their fun last night in Orlando to put up 106 points. The Kings had gone OVER in six straight games before siding with the UNDER in their last two, but last night they faced a tough Memphis team so it's easy to see why they struggled to score. That only led to some value here tonight with this total being set lower than it should be. The Kings are 24-14 OVER in all games this year, but 11-3 OVER when they are playing a team that forces 14 or fewer turnovers per game. A system that supports our play says that when the total is between 200-209.5 take the OVER when the road team has gone over the total by a combined 48 points or more in their previous 10 games. This system is 32-10 over the past five seasons. |
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01-16-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers +7 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 93-88 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
5* NBA NO LIMIT on Cleveland Cavs +
Cleveland has had a tough little road trip but I think they will play tough against Portland on Wednesday night. We are getting some value here because Cleveland has lost the first three games of their West Coast swing, but the Cavs have already faced the Blazers once this season and lost by a single point at home back on December 1st. The trouble with Portland is that they are playing on back-to-back nights, but they haven't really played well lately either. The Blazers lost at Golden State and at home to the Thunder the last two games. As I write this they are playing the Nuggets tough, but that game is being played in Denver. Tonight they will have to travel back to Portland, crossing nearly 1,200 miles and a time zone to play a bad team on Wednesday night. So, not only is the rest situation not working in Portland's favor, but they are also going to be in a letdown spot. Portland and Denver are battling it out for the second spot behind Oklahoma City in the Northwest Division and the Blazers currently sit only a half game up on Utah for the 8th and final playoff spot. They will have spent everything they have trying to win in Denver to get an edge in the standings and in any tiebreaker situation late in the year. Playing a non-conference team that is 9-31 isn't going to be high priority after that. Take the points with the Cavs tonight as heach coach Terry Stotts is just 66-93 ATS against teams with a losing record. |
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01-16-13 | Chicago Bulls -3 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 107-105 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
5* NBA NO BRAINER on Chicago Bulls -
The Toronto Raptors are in a tough spot on Wednesday night as they will be flying from Brooklyn back home to face the Chicago Bulls. Toronto not only has to fly back home, but they are coming off a hard fought divisional game against the Nets. The Bulls are a tough matchup for Toronto because they do a good job of getting to the line, and they convert 79% of their free throw attempts. Toronto allows their opponents who average only 22 attempts per game to get to the line 27 times a contest against them, so expect Chicago to pile on some easy points Wednesday. Chicago's head coach Tom Thibodeau called out his players before the Atlanta game, saying their weren't putting for the effort the liked on defense. What did the Bulls do? They held Atlanta to just 58 points on Monday. If you don't think that carries over think again. Teams that have held opponents to less than 65 points are 52-39 ATS the following game. Toronto even played Chicago in this situation last March and Chicago went into Toronto and won by 12 points as 7.5 point favorite, holding Toronto to just 82 points. Thibodeau is 25-10 ATS on the road after a home win in Chicago and the Bulls are 22-11 ATS as a road favorite the last two years. I'll take Chicago as I think they win big up north. |
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01-15-13 | Indiana Pacers -7.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats | Top | 103-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
5* NO LIMIT on Indiana Pacers -
Indiana had been rolling along, winning four in a row and 10 of their last 12 before a loss in Brooklyn on Sunday. They are going to want to right the ship tonight against the Bobcats, a team they just beat on Saturday night at home by eight points. There is plenty of value in this one as well since Indiana hasn't covered their last four times out. The Bobcats are going to have a tough time putting up points since they only average 95.5 ppg and Indiana is holding their foes to just 89.3 not he year. Indiana on the other hand should be able to get things going as the Bobcats allow 103.6 ppg. Back in early November Indiana traveled to Charlotte and lost by a single point. You can bet that point has been hammered home to them and they will come out hungry from the opening tip, and pull away fast. Indiana needs to take advantage of soft spots in their schedule to make up for their slow start, and they do that tonight. The Bobcats are 17-34 ATS when playing a team with a winning record the last two seasons and 14-28 ATS at a home underdog. |
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01-14-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Sacramento Kings OVER 203.5 | Top | 118-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
5* NBA Total Dominator on Kings/Cavs OVER
Sacramento's defense has been terrible all year long, but the last four games it's been something special. All four opponents have scored 113 or more points against them and this team hasn't let a team score under 94 points since way back on December 8th. It's no surprise that the Kings have gone OVER in five straight and 10 of their last 11 and I don't think they will have a problem eclipsing this number tonight either. Cleveland isn't a great offensive team, but they have their own struggles on the defensive side of the ball. On the road they are giving up 100.4 ppg on 47.9% shooting against teams scoring just 96.5 on 44.4%. This team has allowed 97 or more points in eight of their last nine games. The Kings are 39-21 OVER when the total is between 200-210 the last three seasons and 14-6 OVER at home this year. Sacramento is 23-11 OVER in non-confernece games the last two years and 15-7 OVER after a loss this year. Finally, since 1996 the Kings are 34-18 OVER at home when playing a team with a winning percentage 25% or lower. All sign point to a lot of scoring tonight, so take the OVER. |
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01-12-13 | San Francisco +14 v. Saint Marys CA | Top | 72-78 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
5* BAILOUT ATS BLOWOUT on San Francisco +
The St. Mary's Gaels are in a letdown spot here today as they take on the 7-9 Dons of San Francisco. On Thursday night the Gaels went up to Gonzaga and played the Zags tough, losing by only five points. Not only will they have trouble getting up for the Dons after such an emotional win, the next game on the schedule sees them take on another strong team in BYU. San Francisco is better than their record indicates. Sure, they have lost three in a row, but two of those games they covered against tough teams in BYU and at Santa Clara. the Dons also have covers against Ole Miss and St. John's, so they have played teams tough that have more talent than them. St. Mary's has put up impressive numbers by beating up cupcakes this year. Gonzaga was their first real test and while they played well, they will probably think things go back to normal as they get a sub. 500 team on Saturday. Too bad for them the Dons will come ready to play and keep this one tight. Solid system that says to take double digit underdogs off an upset loss as a favorite on one day or less of rest. These teams have gone 137-86 (61.4%) since 1997. |
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01-11-13 | Houston Rockets v. Boston Celtics UNDER 200.5 | Top | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
5* Total NO BRAINER on Rockets/Celtics UNDER
These two teams met earlier this season in Houston and played to a final score of 101-89 and I expect another low scoring affair here tonight. Is it any surprise Boston has upped the defensive intensity over the last five games? Their defensive stopper, Avery Bradley, finally returned from injury and the whole team seems to be rejuvenated. The Celtics have won four in a row and are doing it with defense. Boston has allowed 75, 81, 96, and 79 in those four games and no opponent has shot better than 41.2%. Houston on the other hand, did not start their three game road trip as planned, losing in New Orleans by a final score of 79-88. The Hornets have been playing better defensively lately, but Boston is better on that end with Bradley than nearly every team in the league. Solid system backs our play that says to take the UNDER when the total is over 200 in non-conference games and one of the teams went UNDER by more than 24 points last game. This system is 51-18 for the UNDER the last five seasons. Plus, when two teams with a winning record face each other on Friday nights and the total is over 200, the UNDER has gone 90-50 over the past five years. |
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01-09-13 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 187.5 | Top | 104-96 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
5* Total NO BRAINER on Bulls/Bucks UNDER
Milwaukee fired coach Scott Skiles and then went out and scored 108 points against the Phoenix Suns last night, so some might think a change of philosophy sparked the offense. In reality it was more just hot shooting as the team shot 9-of-17 from behind the 3-point line. Obviously they can't keep up that pace no matter who is coaching. The Bulls recent win was a 118-92 spanking of Cleveland that was uncharacteristically high scoring for them. Instead their previous four games they didn't allow their opponent to score more than 94 points, while not scoring more than 96 themselves. On their home floor Chicago is allowing just 89.8 ppg and 42.5% shooting. The two games these two teams have played this year have both gone UNDER the number. Both games were played back in November with final scores of 93-92 and 93-86. Chicago will want to revenge that home loss on 11/26 and to do that they know defense is their best way to do that. Look for a slow pace game controlled by the Bulls for an easy UNDER here tonight. |
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01-06-13 | Northwestern v. Minnesota UNDER 133 | Top | 51-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Minnesota/Northwestern UNDER 133
Two teams square off in the Big Ten on Sunday who have been excellent on the defensive end of the floor this year. Northwestern is allowing opponents who score 68.5 ppg to only put up 61.8 against them. Teams are shooting just 41.3% from the floor compared to their season average of 43.7%. Minnesota is no slouch either as they allow just 59.8 ppg against teams who score 69.4. Opponents are shooting only 38.1% against them compared to their season average of 44.6%. Neither one of these two teams turn the ball over very often, so that is going to limit easy buckets in transition. The Gophers have been a solid rebounding team but the Wildcats do a good job of keeping their opponents off the offensive glass. Michigan put up 94 points against Northwestern on Thursday night, but that isn't going to happen in back-to-back outings as the Wolverines shot 60% from the floor. Minnesota is coming off a win over Michigan State back on New Year's Eve and might be a little rusty after the long layoff. They scored 76 in that game but had to shoot 56.6% from the floor in order to do so. The oddsmakers are over-adjusting for what happened last game and I'll gladly take the UNDER here today. |
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01-05-13 | Golden State Warriors +6 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 89-115 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
5* Pacific Division Game of the Year on the Warriors +6 over the Clippers
Golden State beat the Clippers the first time around by a final score of 114-110 so this team should be confident they can go into LA and do it again tonight. Add in the fact that Golden State just beat them on Wednesday night at home and you can see why we like the matchup. Some might consider the Clippers as motivated to revenge the early season loss, but that is more of a myth than reality in the NBA. In fact, teams with a winning record that are favorites of 3.5-9.5 points revenging two straight losses where opponents put up 100 or more are just 42-78 ATS the last 5 seasons. There aren't many teams playing better than the Warriors right now and they are doing it against some stiff competition. They blew out the Bobcats back on 12/21 at home, then took the Lakers to the wire in Steve Nash's return to the lineup. A four game winning streak quickly followed with an 11 point win in Utah, a 7 point win over the Sixers, 18 points over the Celtics, and the 21 point beating they handed the Clippers. LA is struggling after their long winning streak, losing by 14 at Denver and by 21 at Golden State. They have to play their cross town rival Lakers on Friday night and you know they are going to go all out for that game on ESPN. Don't plan on them having this game circled against the Warriors tonight even with Golden State beating up on them a few days ago. This is a tough spot for the Clippers. This will be the team's fourth game in five nights and seventh in their last ten. The rest situation is brutal for LA right now as they haven't had more than one day off since 12/12. The Warriors take advantage and cover here tonight. |
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01-05-13 | St John's v. Cincinnati UNDER 138 | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
5* Total NO BRAINER on St. John's Cincinnati UNDER 138
St. John's is coming off a high scoring game against Villanova with a final of 86-98. Sure, the game went into overtime but it was already 83-83 after two halves, blowing over the 136.5 point total. Cincinnati is also coming off an over of their own when they beat Pitt by a score of 70-61 back on New Year's Eve. That game saw a low total posted of 125 and since the Bearcats were six point dogs that means they were supposed to score under 60 points. The previous game has opened up some value for us with this total being a few points higher than it should be. Cincinnati had put up scores of 60-45, 68-58, and 54-55 the three games prior to Pitt. In fact, they haven't allowed another opponent to score more than 60 against them since Oregon did back on 11/24. The last two years these two teams have struggled to put up points when playing each other and have gone UNDER the total each time. Back on 1/22/11 Cincinnati won 53-51 with a total of 129. On 2/13/11 it was St. John's 59-57 with a total of 128. Last year saw St. John's win in Cincy by a final of 57-55 with a total of 133.5 and the Bearscats revenged the loss by winning 76-54 on the road. That was enough to get under the 134 total posted. So, the last four have gone UNDER the total in this series and yet this total is higher than any of the previous. Don't expect a lot of points Saturday as this one stays low. |
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01-01-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. New Orleans Hornets +3.5 | Top | 95-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
5* No Brainer on New Orleans Hornets +3
This is a tough scheduling spot for Atlanta. They are in the dreaded position of playing their fourth game in five nights, playing back-to-back against Cleveland and Indiana, having a night off, then playing in Houston last night on New Year's Eve. They didn't look good against the Rockets, getting beat down by a superior team. Obviously New Orleans isn't a good team as they clock in at 7-23 on the year, while Atlanta is 19-10, but the Hornets do have two wins in their last three games and scored 97 or above in each. Since Atlanta has given up 100 or more in three of their last four, I think the Hornets are going to put enough points on the board to pick up the win here on New Year's Day. The public is going to look at this matchup and see the Hawks won by 22 down in New Orleans last year, but this team has improved and will look to that defeat as some motivation here today. The Hornets start fresh in 2013 and pick up the win over a Hawks team that is overvalued after winning four straight before last night. |
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12-31-12 | Harvard +13 v. Saint Marys CA | Top | 69-70 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
5* CBB No Limit on Harvard +13
This is a great matchup for Harvard as they have made 40% of their 3-point shots on the season and are taking on a St. Mary's team that is giving up 38% from deep range. The other thing Harvard does is get to the line, they are taking 22 free throws a game against teams that allow 19. St. Mary's allows 21 free throws a game against teams that shoot 19. You should see Harvard taking quite a bit of free throws and that's good news as they have hit 74.3% of them on the year. Another reason to back Harvard is the rest factor. St. Mary's played yesterday against Yale and also played on the 27th against Rhode Island. In the NBA you are used to seeing this kind of thing, but college kids aren't used to this quick of a turnaround and it normally shows with tired legs. Harvard is a team that slows the pace down quite a bit and in those situations taking double digits is a gift. I'll ride the Harvard Crimson tonight on ESPN2. |
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12-31-12 | Atlanta Hawks v. Houston Rockets OVER 206.5 | Top | 104-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
5* NBA Total No Brainer on Hawks/Rockets OVER 206.5
The way these two teams are playing right now the OVER makes a lot of sense to me. The Rockets and Hawks met way back on 11/2 in Atlanta and Houston won that game 109-102, so they've already played a high scoring game once this season. Houston has been an OVER lover's dream lately. Only once in their last six games have either the Rockets or their opponent failed to reach 120 points in a game. It's no surprise that every one of those games went over the total. The only game that failed to reach that mark was Minnesota on 12/26 which was a letdown spot after a big win in Chicago. The Hawks have been putting up some points too. Atlanta has gone OVER in three straight games and has eclipsed the 100 point barrier in each, they also have allowed 100 points in two of those three games. Both of these teams like to shoot the 3-ball and both are better at hitting the outside shot than they are at defending it. A lot of factors pointing towards the OVER tonight so I'll ride it. |
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12-29-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder -4 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 124-94 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
5* No Limit Play on Oklahoma City Thunder -4
The Thunder were the hottest team in the NBA up until losing at Minnesota and at Miami in back-to-back games, then on Thursday night trailed most of the game to the Dallas Mavericks. This has setup the rare situation for OKC this season in which they have lost three straight games for their backers at the pay window. I expect that trend to end here tonight against the Houston Rockets. The Rockets on the other hand had won five in a row before dropping last night's contest to the San Antonio Spurs, but they still managed to cover giving them six straight at the pay window. This has caused them to be a little over-valued tonight against a team they can't match up with. The Thunder played Houston earlier this year and put up 120 points on them, which is no surprise since OKC is averaging 105 ppg. The Rockets can score the rock too, but they give up 102.5 ppg compared to the 96.8 ppg the Thunder allow. Coming off a high tempo game against the in-state rival San Antonio Spurs, I just can't see them having enough in the tank to keep it close against Oklahoma City. The Thunder on the other hand should be out to get back on track and pick up the easy win in Houston Saturday. |
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12-29-12 | Virginia Tech v. Brigham Young UNDER 152.5 | Top | 71-97 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
5* CBB Total No Brainer on Virginia Tech BYU UNDER 152.5
Lot of points here today when Virginia Tech & BYU meet up in Salt Lake. The Hokies are coming off a poor showing against Colorado State where they scored just 52 points and lost by 36 points. They haven't reached the 75 point barrier since 12/1, a stark contrast to their high scoring ways to start the year off. Va Tech has played good defensively though allowing three of their last five opponents to shoot less than 37% from the floor. BYU comes into this game having allowed less than 70 points to four of their last five opponents and has given up 38% or less shooting to three of their last five. On the year neither one of these teams is close to averaging this many points, and both teams have held opponents to low shooting percentages. Last year these two met and the score was 29-25 at half before a second half outburst took the final to 70-68. Everything about this game points towards the UNDER. |
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12-28-12 | Denver Nuggets -2 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 106-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Nuggets -2
Here we have two teams headed in opposite directions, and I won't hesitate to take the one on the upswing. The Mavs have lost seven of eight while the Nuggets have won six of nine. Denver has gone 7-2 ATS in these games. This is a game the Nuggets had circled heading into the season as they lost last season's last three meetings with the Mavs by double digits. These defeats should fuel a very motivated performance from Denver. The Nuggets have been a terrific investment on the road where they are on a 60-41 ATS run. It is also worth noting that the Nuggets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Dallas, and the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Nuggets have a big edge on the boards. They average 56 rebounds per game while the Mavs average just 49. It is also significant that Dallas gives up an average of 55 boards per game. That's because the Nuggets are on a 66-42 ATS run versus poor rebounding teams that are outrebounded by 3.0 or more boards per game. In addition, the Mavs are on a 10-25 ATS slide versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game. Take Denver. |
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12-26-12 | Miami Heat v. Charlotte Bobcats +10.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Charlotte Bobcats +10.5
Off yesterday's big statement win over the Thunder, expect the Heat to suffer a letdown. Miami has been far from invincible on the road where it is just 5-4 and has only one win of more than 10 points. One of its road defeats came to the lowly Washington Wizards so Miami can certainly be had here. The Bobcats have lost 15 in a row, but they have been competitive at home during this stretch. Each of their last three and six of seven home losses during this span have come by less than 10 points. Two of these were against the Clippers and Knicks so they have shown they can take good teams right down to the wire. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a losing home record. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Bet the Bobcats. |
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12-25-12 | Boston Celtics v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 188.5 | Top | 93-76 | Win | 100 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
5* NBA "Total" Dominator on Celtics/Nets Under 188.5
The earliest Christmas day game has gone under the total every year going back to 2004. Apparently, these guys don't like getting up early. I expect this trend to continue. The last meeting between these teams went under as just 178 total points were scored. This one has the potential to be even lower scoring. The Celtics have allowed the Nets to score 102 and 95 points, respectively, in each of the season's first two meetings. The defensive effort in those games can't be sitting well with a Boston squad that has prided itself on defense under the watch of Doc Rivers. I'm expecting a much better defensive showing from the C's this time around. The Nets, which rank sixth in the NBA with 93.9 points allowed per game, have been getting it done on the defensive end all season. I expect no different in this one. The Nets have finished under the total in each of their last four games. Also, the under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two. Boston has gone over the total in its last three but is 14-4 under in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons. We have seen only 178.4 total points scored on average in this situation. Take the Under. |
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12-23-12 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Brooklyn Nets -5.5 | Top | 92-95 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nets -5.5
The 76ers are struggling to win on the road. They have dropped each of their last five road games with the last four road defeats coming by seven points or more. Consequently, they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. Since the beginning of last season, Philly is 1-9 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%). It has lost these contests by an average score of 96.4 to 84.5. It is also 9-19 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons, losing these contests by an average score of 97.8 to 90.0. The Nets will be the fresher team as they have had three full days to gear up. They should also be the hungrier team as they look to snap a three-game skid in the series. The Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 3 days' rest or more. Bet the Nets. |
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12-22-12 | Chicago Bulls v. Atlanta Hawks -3 | Top | 75-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Hawks -3
Off last night's big upset win in New York, expect the Bulls to suffer a letdown in Atlanta tonight. The Hawks, meanwhile, will be extremely motivated after laying an egg in Philadelphia last night. They will be further fueled by the 21-point beat down the Bulls handed them in the most recent meeting. One thing you haven't wanted to make a habit of is backing the Bulls following a win. That's because they are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. The Hawks have been a terrific investment in games oddsmakers expect to be close. They are an impressive 32-18 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. It is also worth noting that they are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games when playing without a day of rest. Take Atlanta. |
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12-20-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 | Top | 93-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5
Off last night's satisfying win in Atlanta, I expect the Thunder to look right past a Minnesota team they have defeated 12 straight times and ahead to their Christmas matchup with the Miami Heat. While Oklahoma City has had Minnesota's number, many of these matchups have been close. As a result, the Thunder are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Minnesota. OKC has won by just 3.67 points on average in its last 6 visits to Minnesota so the value clearly lies with the T-Wolves catching more than that. The Timberwolves lost by 11 at Miami in their last game but are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss of more than 10 points. They are also 15-4 ATS versus good teams like OKC that outscore their opponents by 3.0 points or more per game over the last 2 seasons. They have lost to these teams by only 0.7 points on average. Take the T-Wolves. |
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12-19-12 | South Carolina State +26.5 v. Iowa | Top | 46-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on South Carolina State +26.5
Iowa will have a tough time getting up for this game following back-to-back emotional revenge wins over in-state rivals Iowa State and Northern Iowa. Plus, the Hawkeyes are being overvalued here because they have won four in a row straight up and three in a row against the spread. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are being undervalued because oddsmakers have overreacted to Monday's 102-51 loss to Missouri. Plays on underdogs of 20 or more points that check in off a blowout loss of 30 points or more and are matched up against an opponent that has scored 75 points or more in 3 straight games are 25-6 ATS since 1997. These teams have been underdogs of 26.8 points on average but have lost by an average of only 22.2 points. Take the points. |
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12-18-12 | Ball State v. Purdue -15.5 | Top | 56-66 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Purdue -15.5
Off back-to-back losses away from home, expect Purdue to roll when it steps back on its home floor tonight. Home court has treated the Boilermakers well in recent seasons as they are on a 21-10 ATS run in lined home games dating back to the 2010 season. They are an awesome 10-2 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points during this span and have won by an average score of 74.8 to 49.2 in these spots. It is also significant that Purdue suffered a double-digit loss to Notre Dame its last time out. That's because the Boilermakers have responded extremely well following such embarrassing defeats. In fact, they are 8-1 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points as Purdue rolls in this motivated spot. |
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12-15-12 | Brooklyn Nets v. Chicago Bulls -3.5 | Top | 82-83 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
5* NBA NO DOUBT ROUT OF THE MONTH on the Chicago Bulls -3.5
Brooklyn played a tough game last night against the Pistons, playing a few extra frames and now they have to travel to Chicago to take on a Bulls team with two days rest. Chicago is playing good basketball right now winning four of five and seven of their last nine. Brooklyn on the other hand has been struggling with five losses in their last seven games. The Nets should be a tired team as they not only come off double overtime, but they are also playing their fourth game in five nights. You don't see this kind of situation coming often, and it's a big reason I would lay the wood on the Bulls Saturday night. Add in the fact that Chicago lost at home last February to the Nets and you have a Bulls team that will be hungry to beat a tired team that isn't playing well. All signs point to a blowout. |
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12-14-12 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Cleveland Cavaliers +3 | Top | 90-86 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Cavs +3
Expect Milwaukee to get caught looking ahead to tomorrow's game. It will be more worried about the Clippers than a Cleveland team it has defeated 8 straight times. While the Bucks will be looking ahead, the Cavs will be out for some serious revenge. They came close to ending the skid with a 3-point loss at Milwaukee Nov. 3 so they will enter this game with a ton of confidence and motivation. The Bucks have struggled on the road of late. They are just 1-3 in their last four and 2-5 in their last 7 road games. It is also significant that they enter off a lopsided victory since teams that do tend to be overvalued. Fading the Bucks following a win of more than 10 points has produced a 9-1 ATS record in the last 10 instances. Cash in with the Cavs. |
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12-13-12 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Atlanta Hawks OVER 194 | Top | 90-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
5* NBA Total of the Week on Bobcats/Hawks Over 194
Oddsmakers are begging for the money to roll in on the under but we won't oblige them. The Bobcats and Hawks both finished under the number in their games last night with 194 and 166 total points scored, respectively. Also, these two have been under this number in each of the season's previous two meetings with 192 and 185 total points scored, respectively. Yet, the books have come in with a total higher than we've seen these two put up this season? They clearly think this is going to be a high-scoring game, and I agree fully. When teams play the second game of a back-to-back, it is typically the defense that suffers. It is always easier to find energy when trying to score than it is at the defensive end. That's a big reason why the over is 5-1 in the Bobcats' last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Prior to this season's two meetings, we had seen the Bobcats and the Hawks combine to score more than 194 points in three straight games. It is also worth noting that the over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Plus, the over is 5-1 in the Hawks' last 6 home games. Bet the Over. |
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12-12-12 | New Orleans Hornets +13.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 88-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Hornets +13.5
The Hornets got caught looking ahead last night as they were upset at home by the Wizards. This is the game they really want as they have been crushed by the Thunder twice already this season, and last night's poor performance assures us they will be even more focused. Consider that underdogs of 10 or more points that have a winning percentage of .250 to .400 that check into a contest off an upset loss are 58-28 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this system have lost by just 10.7 points on average. It is also worth noting that this system is 19-6 ATS the last 5 seasons and 8-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. In addition, New Orleans is on an impressive 21-10 ATS run when out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent. It has lost these games on average but only by 4.0 points. The Hornets played last night but are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when playing without a day of rest. It is also worth noting that the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Hornets have lost by only 10 and 8 points, respectively in their last 2 visits to OKC. Take the Hornets as they will be the hungrier team tonight. |
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12-08-12 | Minnesota v. USC +8 | Top | 71-57 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on USC +8
USC has dropped four in a row since a 3-1 start and will be ready to go tonight because of it. It lost by 15 at Minnesota last season and will be out for some serious revenge. The Gophers have won five in a row and are being overvalued on the road because of it. Consider that they are just 3-12 ATS all-time under coach Smith in road games following four or more consecutive wins. They have lost by an average score of 73.2 to 69.1 in this situation. In addition, Minnesota is on an 18-35 ATS slide in road games after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. It has lost by an average score of 73.0 to 65.0 in this situation. USC beat Texas and showed well against Marquette, San Diego State and New Mexico. With a chance to gain some momentum with a win over a ranked opponent, I'm confident the Trojans will show up tonight. |
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12-07-12 | Golden State Warriors v. Brooklyn Nets -6 | Top | 109-102 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Nets -6
Motivated by back-to-back losses to the Heat and Thunder and further fueled by a loss at Golden State in the season's first meetings, I expect this rested Brooklyn squad to roll tonight. The Nets are a terrific 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 home games and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Prior to losing a close one at home to Oklahoma City, the Nets had won six straight at home by an average of 9.3 points. All of these wins came by more than six points except one. Brooklyn beat the Celtics, Clippers and Knicks during this stretch so it can certainly lay a thumping on the Warriors. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and the Warriors are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 road meetings in this series. It is also worth noting that the favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Bet the Nets. |
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12-05-12 | New York Knicks v. Charlotte Bobcats +8 | Top | 100-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Bobcats +8
Motivated by four consecutive defeats and out for revenge for blowout losses to the Knicks in the last two meetings, I'm expecting an inspired performance from the Bobcats tonight. While this is a bounce-back spot and a revenge spot for the Bobcats, it's a look ahead spot for the Knicks who take on the Miami Heat tomorrow night. New York will be much more concerned with that game and won't give the Bobcats its full attention as a result. The Knicks have lost three of their last four on the road, and I expect them to have a tough time pulling this one out tonight. Bet the Bobcats. |
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11-30-12 | Brooklyn Nets v. Orlando Magic +4.5 | Top | 98-86 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Magic +4.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by a pair of defeats to Brooklyn this month, the Magic will show up in a big way tonight. They are 2-2 on their season-high five-game homestand, and they |
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11-28-12 | San Antonio Spurs v. Orlando Magic +8 | Top | 110-89 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Magic +8
The Magic have played well at home where they are 4-3 this season. They could just as easily be 5-2 as they fell to Boston in overtime in their last game. Orlando will be the fresher team tonight as it has had two days' rest. The Spurs have only had a days' rest, and they will be much more interested in tomorrow night's game against the Miami Heat, an opponent they feel is a better measuring stick than the Magic. I like Orlando catching big points at home here regardless, but it only helps our cause if Tim Duncan doesn't see much of the floor tonight. Coach Popovich said he plans to give Duncan some breaks. "There'll be times this year when we'll sit him back-to-backs. Win or lose, he's not going to play the minutes he played (Sunday)," Popovich said. The Magic have struggled in Orlando where they have lost three of four. The lone win came by only two points in overtime. Take the Magic. |
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11-24-12 | Nevada v. Marshall -7 | Top | 82-89 | Push | 0 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Game of the Week on Marshall -7
Marshall has lost back-to-back games and three of its last four. Motivated by these defeats and finally back home, I expect the Thundering Herd to roll here. Marshall is a stellar 8-1 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons and has won by an average of 9.1 points in this situation. Also, teams headed up by coach Herrion are 7-0 ATS all-time in home games when entering the contest off three losses in their last four games. His teams have won by an average of 9.9 points in this situation. It is especially significant that Marshall enters off an upset loss at Hofstra. That's because it is 6-0 ATS all-time under Herrion when coming off an upset defeat. Lay the points. |
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11-21-12 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Phoenix Suns -2 | Top | 87-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Suns -2
Off three consecutive defeats, the Suns will be lacking no motivation tonight. Phoenix has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games but is on an awesome 19-8 ATS run after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. The home team has dominated this series of late. It is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and has won these games by an average of 21.3 points. The Suns won 125-107 the last time they hosted. It is also worth noting that the Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Phoenix. Portland has been a poor investment in games oddsmakers expect to be close. It is on a 5-16 ATS slide in games when the line is +3 to -3. It has lost these games by an average of 4.3 points. Take the Suns. |
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11-19-12 | Denver Nuggets +7.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 97-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets +7.5
Memphis is being overvalued because it has won eight consecutive games SU and ATS and is up against a team that has lost three in a row SU and ATS. I'll gladly take the points here as Denver is a fantastic 30-12 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. It has lost these games by only 1.6 points on average. It also bodes well for us that Denver was killed 126-100 at San Antonio in its last game. Consider that it is 16-2 ATS all-time under coach Karl after trailing in the previous game by 20 points or more at the half. The Nuggets have won by an average score of 107.2 to 97.8 in this situation. Look for Denver to take Memphis down to the wire tonight. |
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11-14-12 | Toledo +14 v. Northern Iowa | Top | 81-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Game of the Week on Toledo +14
I really like Toledo in this spot. Consider that it is 6-0 ATS all-time in road games following back-to-back losses of 10 points or more under coach Kowalczyk. It has lost in this situation but only by an average of 11.9 points. Furthermore, Northern Iowa is 0-8 ATS all-time after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half under coach Jacobson. They have lost in this situation by an average of 2.7 points. It hasn't been wise to lay double digits with the Panthers as they are just 10-20 ATS in their last 30 games as a favorite of 10 points or more. They have won in this situation by only 9.1 points on average. Take the points as the Rockets keep this one closer than the oddsmakers think. |
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11-07-12 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers +2 | Top | 84-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Clippers +2
As if back-to-back losses at home aren't enough motivation, the Clippers will be further fueled by the fact they were swept by the Spurs in last season's playoffs. The Spurs aren't the same team on the road where they were fortunate to defeat the New Orleans Hornets in their only other road contest this season. They went 3-0 in L.A. in games against the Clippers last season but two of those wins came by just three points. Besides having the motivational advantage and the home-court advantage, I expect the Clippers to be the fresher side. This will be San Antonio's fifth game in 8 days, which is an awfully challenging stretch for its aging personnel. This is a game the Clippers want badly, and I fully expect them to get it. Fading the Spurs on the road has produced a 100% perfect 5-0 ATS run. Take the Clippers. |
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11-05-12 | Golden State Warriors v. Sacramento Kings -2 | Top | 92-94 | Push | 0 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Kings -2
The Kings are 0-3 but each of their first three games have come on the road. At home for the first time this season, expect the Kings to break into the win column in impressive fashion. While Sacramento is winless, it has been playing pretty good basketball. It played the Bulls to a six-point game to cover the spread and lost to the Pacers in overtime. Both the Bulls and Pacers were playoff teams last season and better teams than the one the Kings will see tonight. Golden State is coming off a road win against the L.A. Clippers, but the Clipps were in a letdown spot following a big win over the Lakers the night before. The Warriors were also in a bounce back spot following a double-digit loss to Memphis. The Kings will clearly be the hungrier team tonight as they go after win No. 1. Coming out flat on Monday is nothing new to the Warriors, who are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 Monday games. Lay the number. |
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06-21-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Miami Heat -3 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
5* Finals *BEST BET* on Heat -3
Because of the Finals format, the Heat have an opportunity to win the series tonight at home. The last thing they want to do is go back to Oklahoma City where anything can happen. LeBron James has been to the Finals twice before only to come up empty handed. With a chance to earn his first ring, I expect him to be unstoppable. Home court has been very good to the Heat as they are 38-7 at home on the season. They are 10-2 at home in these playoffs with all 10 of those wins coming by at least 4 points. They are also a perfect 7-0 ATS at home this season following 2 consecutive games with a Western Conference foe. They have won by an average score of 104.6 to 87.6 in this situation. The Heat have been in good rhythm when playing with 1 day of rest and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games with that amount of rest and prep time. They have won these games by an average of 10.5 points. Miami is also 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games as a favorite, 20-8 ATS in its last 28 playoff games as a favorite and 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games as a home favorite. The home team is also 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Miami is the better defensive team, and I'm a firm believer in the old adage "defense wins championships". The Thunder haven't been able to force Miami into enough turnovers during the series, which is significant because the Heat are 14-4 ATS in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. They have won by an average of 100.6 to 86.3 in this situation. Lay the points. |
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06-19-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 98-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Thunder +3.5
Despite not playing all that well in Games 2 and 3 and shooting just 43.0 and 42.9 percent from the field, the Thunder lost those games by only 4 and 6 points respectively. They know it's basically do-or-die time tonight so I expect them to be very hungry and very focused. Despite consecutive ATS losses, the Thunder are still 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall and 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. They are even 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Miami. Under coach Brooks, OKC is 40-17 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses, including 18-6 ATS in this situation over the last 3 seasons - it has won by an average score of 101.6 to 94.3 in these 24 contests. The Thunder are also 32-17 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. an opponent - over the last 3 seasons. They have won by an average score of 100 to 97.8 in this situation. These bounce back trends and revenge trends show us that Brooks is capable of making necessary adjustments and that his team is capable of executing those adjustments. They also speak of the heart and resiliency of the team. Down 0-2 against the Spurs, OKC found another gear. I expect them to find that gear again tonight. |
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06-17-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Miami Heat -4 | Top | 85-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* on Heat -4
The Heat have been dominant all year at home, where they are 36-7. They are 8-2 at home in the playoffs with those 8 victories coming by an average of 15.9 points. It is also worth noting that they are 3-0 in their series home openers, winning those by an average of 18.7 points. After stealing away Oklahoma City's home court advantage, the last thing the Heat want to do is give it right back. They get 3 consecutive games at home to try to wrap the series up and would prefer not to go back to Oklahoma City. Slow starts have become an issue for the Thunder. They were able to recover from one in Game 1 but couldn't do so in Game 2. They'll especially struggle to fight back on the road if they get behind early again. Ultimately, I believe Miami's defense will be the difference tonight. We're talking about a team that is only allowing 89.0 points per game at home. The Heat are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 playoff games as a favorite. Lay the points. |
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06-14-12 | Miami Heat +5.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* on Heat +5.5
After blowing a 13-point lead in Game 1, and not wanting to fall into a 0-2 hole, expect Miami to be out for blood tonight. The Heat, one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, know they must tighten the screws on the defensive end after allowing Oklahoma City to shoot over 50%. I have no doubt Miami will be better defensively tonight as it has only allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better twice in these playoffs. We have seen the way, LeBron James has been able to take his game to another level when the Heat had their back up against the wall in each of their previous two series. I don't expect him to wait in this series. After hearing all the talk that Kevin Durant is the best player in the NBA, James will be out to prove otherwise. The value has lied with the road team in this matchup as the road squad is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. It also can't be ignored that the Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Miami is also 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. We'll take the points with Miami in this bounce back spot. |
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06-12-12 | Miami Heat v. Oklahoma City Thunder -5 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder -5
The Thunder are 34-7 at home on the season, including a perfect 8-0 in the playoffs. Those 8 wins have come by an average of 10.6 points. The Thunder won this year's regular-season home meeting against the Heat by 16 points as their depth proved to be too much for Miami. Their depth and fresher legs will be the difference in this one. It is also worth noting that plays on any excellent offensive team that averages 102 points or more per game that is matched up against a good defensive squad that holds its foes to 88-92 ppg, provided the "play on" side allowed 60 points or more in the first half last game, are 31-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games with each of those wins coming by at least 5 points. Looking back, they are an impressive 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games. In addition, the Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on 3 days' rest or more, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when laying points, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a victory. The Heat are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. In all, we have a 45-0 angle in our favor. Take the Thunder. |
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06-09-12 | Boston Celtics +8 v. Miami Heat | Top | 88-101 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +8
After getting embarrassed in Game 6, and knowing that this may be their last chance to get back to the NBA Finals, expect the nucleus of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to leave it all on the floor tonight. Doing so should give Boston an opportunity to win. The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games versus the Heat and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Miami. The C's have either won or lost by 8 points or less in 8 of the last 10 matchups. Boston took it on the chin at home in Game 6 as LeBron James delivered a legendary performance, but it is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following an ATS loss and 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games following a SU loss. In other words, this is a resilient team. It is also worth noting that the Celtics are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. I also like the edge Boston has with Doc Rivers. He has outcoached Erik Spoelstra in this series, and I expect him to continue to do so tonight. We'll take the points. |
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06-06-12 | San Antonio Spurs +5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 99-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs +5
This experienced and accomplished San Antonio squad won't go down without a fight tonight. Consider that road teams that have trailed their last 3 games by 5 points or more at the half and are matched up against an opponent that is coming off 2 straight games in which it and its opponent scored 100 points or more are 39-13 ATS since 1996. The "play on" side has only lost by an average 3.8 points. It is also worth noting that this system is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. In addition, the Spurs are 8-0 ATS since the beginning of last season in road games when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent. They have won these games by an average score of 102.9 to 96.4. This could be the last chance for the nucleus of Duncan, Ginobli and Parker to earn another championship ring. They won't easily hand over the torch to the Thunder. I like the Spurs chances of winning this one outright so we'll certainly take the insurance points. |
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06-05-12 | Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat -7.5 | Top | 94-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Heat -7.5
The Heat blew an opportunity to take complete control of the series with an overtime loss in Game 4. They now enter Game 5 with a greater sense of urgency, and I expect them to roll to comfortable win. Boston has won 2 in a row and 2 of the last 3 games have gone to overtime and Miami is laying this many points? It's clear the books want the money on Boston tonight and they're getting it. Whether or not Chris Bosh returns to action, I really like Miami here. Consider that the Heat have won at home versus Boston by 8 points or more in 6 of the last 8 meetings. Those 6 wins have come by an average of 12.5 points. In addition, Miami is 12-4 ATS after having lost 2 of its last 3 games this season. It has won by an average score of 97.9 to 88.6 in this situation. It is also 15-5 ATS in home games after a game where it failed to cover the spread this season. It has won by an average score of 103.5 to 86.5 in this situation. The Heat are even 10-4 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Celtics, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. Just when it looked like Miami might be losing its grip in the Eastern Conference semis, it kicked it in high gear versus the Pacers. I expect a similar response tonight. |
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06-04-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -5 | Top | 108-103 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs -5
Off back-to-back defeats on the road, expect the Spurs to bounce back strong at home where they are 11-0 in their last 11 with a 16.4-point average margin of victory. The Spurs are 23-5-1 ATS in their last 29 home games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. They are even 8-1 ATS this season in home games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent that occurred this season. They have won by an average score of 106.7 to 91.4 in this situation. The Thunder are 0-6 in their last in San Antonio, losing those games by an average of 10.3 points. We'll lay the points. |
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06-03-12 | Miami Heat -130 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 91-93 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year on Heat -130
Motivated by an embarrassing double-digit defeat in Game 3, expect the Heat to come storming back tonight. The Celtics are a poor 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. In addition, they are just 6-18 ATS in home games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The fact Miami is favored is significant because the favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Also, the Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. Miami shot just 10 of 20 from the foul line in Game 3. We're talking about a team that was among the best during the regular season at 77.5%. I expect the Heat to shoot much better from the charity stripe and for Dwayne Wade to be much more efficient offensively in this one. The result should be a Miami win. I really like the Heat laying points, and expect them to win this one going away, but am taking them on the money line for insurance. Best of luck! |
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06-02-12 | San Antonio Spurs +3.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs +3.5
I went against the Spurs in Game 3 as my NBA Game of the Year and it paid off big time as the Thunder ended San Antonio's 20-game win streak with a 20-point win. That, however, was the first time the Thunder had defeated the Spurs in the last 5 meetings. Expect the No. 1 seed in the West to bounce back strong tonight. San Antonio is a perfect 8-0 ATS after a blowout loss by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons. It hasn't just won in this situation, it has won by an average score of 106.4 to 93.4. In addition, Oklahoma City is 0-8 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season. The Spurs were the best road team in the West this season, and they've either won or lost by 2 points or less in 6 of 8 all-time meetings in Oklahoma City. Take the Spurs showing good value in the underdog role tonight. |
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06-01-12 | Miami Heat +2 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 91-101 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Heat +2
Boston's goose is cooked. The Celtics played as well as they can play in Game 2, but it wasn't enough. Boston's core of Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen combined to score 96 points, the most they've ever scored in a game together. After playing such heavy minutes in Game 2, I can't see any of these guys bouncing back to play as well in Game 3. We certainly can't expect another historic night from Rondo. Miami is the younger, deeper team so it should be able to bounce back more easily from Wednesday's physically exhausting game. This will be Boston's 4th game in 7 days, and it has been struggling when playing on just a days' rest at 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games in this situation. The Celtics covered the spread in Game 2 but are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a cover. The Heat are 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in their last 5 games, including 2-0 SU and ATS on the road during this stretch. They are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss, 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Finals games. We'll take the Heat. |
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05-31-12 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -4 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Year on Thunder -4
Down 0-2, it's do or die time for the Thunder knowing the history of teams that fall into an 0-3 hole. I expect them to "do" in impressive fashion on their home floor tonight. The Thunder, who are 31-7 at home, have lost more than 2 consecutive games just once this season. In fact, OKC is 17-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. It has won by an average of 6.7 points in this situation. The Thunder are 59-29-1 ATS in their last 89 games following a loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Spurs are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 playoff games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Thunder are 5-0 at home in these playoffs where they have won by an average of 10.2 points. Lay the number. |
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05-30-12 | Boston Celtics +8 v. Miami Heat | Top | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +8
Boston took it on the chin in Game 1, but I'm not hesitating to take the resilient Celtics in Game 2. Boston hasn't lost back-to-back games in nearly two months. It is 9-0 in its last 9 games following a loss, winning those games by an average of 10.4 points. The Heat rolled in Game 1, but we can't forget that the Celtics have still won 3 of the last 4 meetings. We also can't forget that Miami lost Game 2 of its previous series with the Pacers. Rondo is the key tonight. I expect him to be very aggressive after a subpar effort by his standards in Game 1. The Celtics are old, but they have the heart of a champion. We'll take the points as they take the Heat down to the wire. |
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05-29-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 111-120 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +4.5
We have a strong NBA playoff system in our favor this evening as plays against favorites that are leading in a playoff series, provided they have a winning percentage of .750 or higher and are matched up against a team with a winning percentage of .600 to .750, are 33-11 ATS since 1996. The favorite has only won by an average of 0.7 points in this situation. It is also worth noting that this system has produced a 7-1 ATS record the last 5 seasons. With this in mind, the Thunder are showing some nice value catching 4.5 points. In addition, OKC is a perfect 10-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in road games when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. It has won by an average score of 104.1 to 98.6 in this situation. The Thunder are 6-0 in their last 6 games following a loss, winning those games by an average of 11.0 points. Take the Thunder and the points tonight. |
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05-28-12 | Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat -8 | Top | 79-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Heat -8
Boston has won 3 in a row versus Miami by 8 points or more and the Heat are laying 8? It's clear odds makers want the public on the Celtics here as they believe Boston won't be as fresh as Miami in Game 1 of this series. The C's are coming off a grueling 7-game series and have only had 1 day of rest since closing out the 76ers. This is significant because Boston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The Heat, who have had 3 days' rest since closing out the Pacers, are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days' rest. In addition, the Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, 15-5 ATS in their last 20 playoff games as a favorite, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Conference Finals games. Also, the home team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings and the favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Lay the points. |
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05-27-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -5.5 | Top | 98-101 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs -5.5
The Spurs, who have won 18 in a row, are in a groove. They have won their last two versus OKC (by 11 and 9 points), and they have won their last 4 at home versus OKC by an average of 12.5 points. The Thunder are just 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings and 4-11-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings in San Antonio. The Spurs are 22-4-1 ATS in their last 27 home games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Thunder are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Thunder rely on one-on-one play far too much for their scoring as they average just 18 assists per game, a number that drops to 17 on the road. The Spurs, meanwhile, average 23 assists per game, a number that rises to 24 at home. This is significant because San Antonio is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the 2nd half of this season versus poor passing teams averaging 20 or fewer assists per game. The Spurs have defeated these teams by an average score of 116.9 to 101.3. Lay the points. |
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05-26-12 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Boston Celtics -5.5 | Top | 75-85 | Win | 100 | 31 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics -5.5
The Celtics haven't lost consecutive games since Apr. 4 and 5, and I don't expect them to start now. They are 8-0 in their last 8 games following a loss with an impressive 10.5-point margin of victory. Boston has been nearly unbeatable on its home floor, winning 10 of its last 11 in the garden. It's 3-1 versus the 76ers during this stretch, winning those 3 contests by an average of 13.7 points. This current core group of Celtics has a lot more experience in this type of situation than this young Philly squad. This group is 3-1 in Game 7's at home with those 3 victories coming by an average of 16.3 points. Having had 2 days' rest in between games is also very beneficial to this veteran Celtics teams. The Celtics have had 2 days' rest twice in these playoffs and are 2-0 in the games following. After 2 day's rest following Game 4, Boston returned home to crush the 76ers by 16 points. We'll lay the number. |
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05-24-12 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +3.5 | Top | 105-93 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +3.5
After getting beat up and embarrassed in Game 5 and getting called out by NBA legend Larry Bird, expect the Pacers to respond in a big way at home tonight. The Heat have been overmatched on the interior without Chris Bosh in the lineup and are even more so now with Udonis Haslem receiving a one-game suspension. I expect the Pacers to really pound it inside, taking advantage of their superior size. History is in our favor here as good teams that outscore their foes by 3 points or more per game are 143-88 ATS the last 5 seasons following a blowout loss of 15 points or more. Also, home teams that are out for revenge for a road defeats of 10 points or more, provided they and their opponent both have winning percentages of .600 to .750, are 167-111 since 1996. It is also worth noting that Indiana is on an 81-50 ATS run when out for revenge for a loss in which it was held to less than 85 points. It has won by an average score of 93.3 to 91.6 in this situation. The Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Pacers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. And, the underdog is 26-12-1 ATS in the last 39 meetings between these teams. Take the points. |
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05-22-12 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat UNDER 181 | Top | 83-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Total of the Year on Pacers/Heat Under 181
Three of the first four games in this series have finished under the number, and I expect this trend to continue tonight. With both teams looking to take control of the series, I expect the effort and intensity on the defensive end to be at its highest level of the series. Miami is an elite defensive team, especially at home where it has played to the under in 26 of 38 games this season. At the end of regulation, these two teams have totaled just 181 points or less in each of their last 3 games in Miami. We saw just 170 and 153 total points scored at the end of regulation in 2 of those games. The Under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 4-0 in its last 4 games following an ATS win and 9-0 in its last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Also, the Under is 5-0 in Indiana's last 5 games when it has had a day to rest and prepare. In addition, plays "Under" on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a playoff series that is tied are 42-10 the last 5 seasons, 22-6 the last 3 seasons and a perfect 6-0 this season. We'll take the Under. |
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05-20-12 | Miami Heat -125 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 101-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference Semifinals Game of the Year on Heat -125
This is a "must win" game for the Heat, and I fully expect them to take care of business. Miami is capable of playing lock-down defense, as we saw in the first two games of this series and the first half of Game 3. The issue has been its offense. Miami's offensive struggles won't continue. These guys are too good. Dwayne Wade is coming off a forgettable performance and will be very focused here because of it. We can't forget that LeBron James and Wade have a lot more big game experience than this Indiana squad. The Heat have been a team of response at 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Also, plays on any team that is out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, provided it was upset by 15 points or more in its last game, are 29-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. We have seen the "play on" side win by an average of 3.3 points in this situation. Take Miami. |
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05-19-12 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers +5.5 | Top | 96-86 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Clippers +5.5
The Clippers didn't put up much of a fight in San Antonio, but I fully expect them to be a different team at home this afternoon. Consider that LA is 13-4 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent - this season. It has won by an average score of 95.7 to 91.1 in this situation. In addition, the Clipps are a strong 15-5 ATS in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 3 seasons. They have actually won these contests by an average score of 97.4 to 95.6. It is also worth noting that LA is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games as a home underdog and 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Spurs only defeated the Clippers by 3 points in their only meeting in LA this season. The Clippers also won the previous home game against San Antonio. We'll take the points as the Clipps give the Spurs all they can handle. |
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05-18-12 | Boston Celtics v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 174 | Top | 83-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
5* NBA "Total" Dominator on Celtics/76ers Under 174
After allowing Boston to shoot 51.9% from the field in Game 3, we can count on the 76ers to turn up the heat on the defensive end tonight. Boston always seems to bring it's "D". It should have continued success on the defensive end against a 76ers squad that struggles to score in the half court. There are more than a few trends in our favor here. Philly is 11-3 Under in home games after one or more consecutive overs this season. It is also 12-3 Under in home games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent this season and 10-1 Under in home games after a game in which it forced 8 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. The Under is 4-1 in the 76ers' last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home, 26-10 in their last 36 games as a home favorite and 18-6 in their last 24 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Under is 4-1 in the Celtics' last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points and 8-2 in their last 10 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. 198 total points were scored in Game 3 and odds makers have come back with a line over 20 points lower. They clearly want the money on the Over as they are clearly expecting a defensive battle. We'll bet the Under. |
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05-17-12 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers OVER 181.5 | Top | 75-94 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator on Heat/Pacers Over 181.5
After going under the number in a pair of defensive battles to start the series, expect the Heat and Pacers to have more success on the offensive end tonight. Right away I love the fact that plays Over on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (Indiana in this case) that have scored 90 points or less in 2 straight games and are matched up against an opponent that checks in off a game with combined score of 175 points or less are 52-30 the last 5 seasons. We've seen an average of 187.3 total points scored in this situation. In addition, the Over is 5-1-1 in the Heat's last 7 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less, 18-8-1 in the Pacers' last 27 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less, 7-2 in the Pacers' last 9 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 9-4 in the Pacers' last 13 games as a home underdog. The Heat are 1-for-22 from 3-point range in this series and the Pacers are 7-for-32. We're talking about a pair of teams that average 6 3-point makes a game and shoot them at better than a 35% clip. Expect the shots to start falling tonight and for this one to find its way over the number as a result. |
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05-16-12 | Los Angeles Lakers +8 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 75-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Game of the Year on Lakers +8
An embarrassing 29-point loss in Game 1 has certainly gotten LA's attention. Motivated by that defeat and hungry to steal away OKC's home-court advantage, expect the Lakers to show up in a big way tonight. First off, the Lakers are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. When they were blown out by 15 at Denver in Game 3 of their first round series, they responded with a 4-point win. And when they were blown out by 17 in Game 6, they responded with a 9-point victory. The Thunder, meanwhile, are 0-7 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season. They have only won by an average of 3.7 points in this situation. After exploding to win Game 3 of their first round series by 16, they only defeated Dallas by 6 points in Game 4. It is also worth noting that the Thunder are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points. |
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05-15-12 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat -6.5 | Top | 78-75 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Heat -6.5
The Heat did not play well in Game 1 and still won by 9. Rest assured, they'll play much better tonight. We are getting a nice number here because Chris Bosh is out. We'll gladly take it because I don't expect his absence to be detrimental. Miami is at its best when it is getting out in transition, and it'll look to run more without Bosh on the block. The Heat are an awesome 32-5 at home on the season. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games winning those contests by an average of 14.6 points. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Heat are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 Conference Semifinal games while the Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Conference Semifinal games. The Pacers are also 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a loss and 9-27 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons. Take the Heat. |
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05-14-12 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 174 | Top | 82-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator on 76ers/Celtics Under 174
These 2 combined for 183 points in Game 1 but neither played as well as they are capable of defensively. Philly had shot worse than 40% from the field in 7 of its previous 8 games before Boston allowed it to shoot 43.9%. Also, Philly has held the Bulls below 41.5% shooting in its previous 4 games before it allowed Boston to shoot 43.9%. Boston ranked No. 2 in the NBA in points allowed per game and No. 1 in field goal percentage defense. Philly ranks 3rd in the NBA in both of those categories. We're talking about a pair of teams that can really tighten the screws on the defensive end. With Philly hungry to steal away Boston's home-court advantage, and with Boston hungry to make quick work of the 76ers in this series, I'm expecting electric defensive efforts from both sides in Game 2. The Under is 9-3 in the Celtics' last 12 playoff games as a favorite and 20-8 in their last 28 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Under is 4-1 in the 76ers' last 5 overall and 26-10 after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Take the Under. |
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05-13-12 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies -7.5 | Top | 82-72 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -7.5
Memphis has all the momentum on its side following wins in Games 5 and 6, and I fully expect it to roll at home in Game 7 tonight. The Grizzlies are more battle tested having played in a pair of tough playoff series last season. They are also the healthier side. Memphis has won 6 of its last 8 at home versus the Clippers with one of those losses coming in Game 1 when it blew a 27-point lead. Keep in mind that those 6 wins have come by an average of 11.3 points. According to a closing line of +2.5 at some books, the Clippers actually covered the spread in Friday's 2-point loss. That bodes extremely well for us as plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent, provided they enter off an ATS victory in a game they lost SU, are 84-39 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have lost by an average of 9.9 points in this situation. It's also important to note that the Clippers are only 1-11 ATS off a cover in a game they lost SU over the last 2 seasons. They have lost by an average of 9.0 points in this situation. The home team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Also, the Clippers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Lay the points. |
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05-12-12 | Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 | Top | 87-96 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Lakers -5.5
The odds are in our favor here considering only 8 teams have ever come back from a 3-1 deficit. Plus, Kobe Bryant is 4-1 all-time in Game 7's. He'll be ready to go, and I expect his teammates will as well after he called them out following Thursday's loss. The Lakers should also get a lift on the defensive end from Metta World Peace, who has served his suspension. The Lakers are 28-8 at home on the season and have won 31 of their last 37 at home versus Denver. Historically speaking, LA's double-digit loss in Game 6 bodes well for us here for a number of reasons. First off, the Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Also, plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponents, provided they are a good team (60-75% winning percentage) and matched up against a team with a winning record, are 62-32 ATS the last 5 seasons. In addition, plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a road loss by 10 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 45-19 ATS the last 5 season. Lastly, the Lakers are 21-8 ATS in their last 28 games when tied in a playoff series since 1996. They've won these games by an average of 6.9 points. Take the Lakers. |
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05-11-12 | Memphis Grizzlies -117 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 90-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Game of the Year on Grizzlies -117
I still love the Grizzlies laying small change but am taking them on the money line for insurance on my investment. I felt Memphis was the better team heading into this series, and I still believe that to be the case. The Grizzlies could have just as easily punched their ticket to the 2nd round by now as opposed to facing a 3-2 deficit. They blew a 27-point lead in Game 1 and they lost Games 3 and 4 in L.A. by narrow margins. They led Game 3 71-64 heading into the 4th and ended up losing by a single point. They lost Game 4 in OT. L.A. made another late run on the Grizzlies in Game 5, but they were able to hold on for a 12-point victory. That win has them believing they can close out games. All the pressure is on L.A. to close the series out tonight because it doesn't want to go back to Memphis. Teams usually don't perform well under pressure, and unfortunately for the Clippers, top players Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are banged up. I expect both of them to be bothered by their injuries tonight but fully expect Memphis to win this game even if both play well. It is significant that odds makers have favored the Grizzlies here because they are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or fewer. The favorite is also 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these two. The Clippers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. The experience gained by playing a couple tough playoff series' last year will also greatly benefit the Grizzlies tonight. Take Memphis. |
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05-10-12 | Atlanta Hawks +6.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 80-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Hawks +6.5
All the pressure is on Boston to close out the series at home tonight. Otherwise it faces a tough Game 7 in Atlanta where the Hawks have won 2 of 3 in the series. The Hawks have the luxury of playing with nothing to lose. They're on the road and not expected to win. They can roll the dice and that makes them dangerous catching 6.5 big ones. Boston could very well take care of business here, but doing so by 7 points or more isn't very likely. After all, the Hawks have either won or lost by 6 points or less in 7 of their last 9 and 14 of their last 19 versus the Celtics. These two teams play a lot of close games, which is a big reason why the underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. It is also worth noting that the road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. In addition, the Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Celtics are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points as I expect this one to go right down to the wire. |
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05-09-12 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies -6 | Top | 80-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -6
Back home off back-to-back losses in L.A. and needing a win to stay alive in the series, I expect the Grizzlies to rise to the occasion. Memphis is 27-8 in home games this season, winning them by an average of 6.3 points. They won Game 2 at home by 7 and blew a 27-point lead in Game 1 so they are more than capable of covering this number. There are a number of trends in our favor as well. Under coach Hollins, the Grizzlies are 53-34 ATS when out for revenge for two straight losses to an opponent. They are also 58-33 ATS under Hollins when out for revenge for a loss in which it allowed its foe to score 100 points or more. Memphis is 17-6 ATS when it checks into a contest following loses in 3 of its last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. It is also an impressive 36-16-2 ATS in its last 54 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Recent history suggests this is the time to fade the Clippers as they are a poor 35-57 ATS in their last 92 road games after 2 or more consecutive wins. They are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Lay the points with Memphis. |
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05-08-12 | Boston Celtics v. Atlanta Hawks -1 | Top | 86-87 | Push | 0 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks -1
Back home, where they are 24-11 on the season, and extremely motivated following an embarrassing Game 4 loss, expect the Hawks to fend off elimination tonight. The Hawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 first round playoff games and 18-6 ATS in their last 24 home games in the first round of the playoffs. They are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Hawks are also 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite, 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite. The Celtics, on the other hand, are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog. Boston is also 18-34 ATS since the beginning of last season following a win by 10 points or more and 7-19 ATS during the same time frame after a blowout win by 15 points or more. Take the Hawks. |
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05-07-12 | San Antonio Spurs v. Utah Jazz +8.5 | Top | 87-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +8.5
The Jazz have been handed 3 consecutive double-digit defeats in this series but they won't go down without a fight tonight, not in front of the home fans. We can't forget that the Jazz are an impressive 25-9 on their home floor this season. Plus, they have either won or lost to the Spurs by 7 points or less in 11 of their last 14 at home in the series. The Spurs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll take the points. |
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05-06-12 | Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 92-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Lakers +2.5
Motivated by Friday's 15-point loss, expect the Lakers to come storming back in Game 4. The Lakers, who are 4-1 in their last 5 games versus the Nuggets, are showing a lot of value here considering they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or fewer and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The Nuggets are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win. LA doesn't want this series to go the distance. It will leave it all on the floor tonight in hopes of taking complete control of the series. We'll take the points as LA bounces back with a win. |
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05-05-12 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 187 | Top | 86-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA "Total" Dominator on Grizzlies/Clippers Under 187
Right away I like the under here considering plays under on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a playoff series that is tied, provided we have a team with a winning record playing another winning team, are 32-8 (80%) the last 5 seasons. We've seen an average posted total of 185.1 points in these games and an average combined score of only 180.8. After a pair of uncharacteristic defensive efforts from a Memphis squad that is among the best defensive teams in the league, I'm expecting the screws to be tightened here. The Clippers are 11-0 under in home games the last 3 seasons versus good pressure defensive teams that force 16 turnovers per game or more. The under is 8-1 in the Grizzlies' last 9 road games and 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. The under is also 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two in L.A. It is also worth noting that the Clippers are a much better defensive team at home. With each of these teams looking for the upper hand in the series, I'm expecting a very intense defensive battle today. We'll bet the under. |