Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-31-17 | West Virginia v. Iowa State +3 | Top | 85-72 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Iowa State + I really like the value here with the Cyclones catching points at home in a primetime matchup against No. 7 West Virginia in a nationally televised game on ESPN2. Iowa State is one of the more difficult places to play in the country, especially in this type of an environment with a Top 10 team coming to down. It's been an up and down season for the Cyclones, who just lost at Vanderbilt. ISU is 8-2 at home and the Mountaineers are just 5-3 on the road despite their 17-4 overall record. West Virginia also comes in off a 81-77 win over Texas A&M as a massive 15-point favorite and are now just 1-4 ATS in their last 5. This team has already lost at Texas Tech and Kansas State in Big 12 play and were lucky to escape with a 74-72 win at Texas. Cyclones are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs the Big 12 and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 as an underdog. Take Iowa State! |
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01-30-17 | Nets +9 v. Heat | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Nets + I really like the value here with the Nets as a near double-digit dog against the Heat. I know Miami has won 7 straight, which includes a 109-106 win at Brooklyn, where they covered as a 2.5-point favorite. The thing is, the Nets blew an 18-point lead in that game. I'm just not buying the Heat being a team that deserves to be laying this many points against any team. Add in that last meeting against Brooklyn was just last week, revenge is going to be fresh in the minds of the Nets. Too much value to pass up on the Nets in this one. Take Brooklyn! |
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01-29-17 | Michigan v. Michigan State -2.5 | Top | 62-70 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas No Limit Top Play on Michigan State - I'm backing the Spartans as a short home favorite against in-state rival Michigan. This clearly isn't the same caliber of Michigan State team as years past, but it's still a Tom Izzo coached squad and they always keep improving as the season goes along. After a disappointing 73-84 home loss to Purdue, which was their 3rd in a row, we are going to get a max effort here from the Spartans. Michigan is going to come to play given the rivalry, but I don't trust them on the road. The Wolverines are just 2-5 away from home on the season, while Michigan State is 9-2 at home. Michigan is also just 2-9 aTS in their last 11 road games when playing only their 2nd game in a week and an 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after 2 or more conference wins. Spartans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home game after losing 4 of their last 5. Take Michigan State! |
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01-28-17 | Kansas State +1.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 58-70 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Non-Conference Game of the Month on Kansas State + I really like the value here with the Wildcats getting points against the Volunteers. Tennessee is getting a lot of love here after their shocking 82-80 win at home over Kentucky as a 10.5-point dog. For whatever reason the Vols have had Kentucky's number of late. The thing is, this is still a mediocre team and I look for them to suffer a letdown here against K-State. The Wildcats are in good shape to make the NCAA Tournament, but are far from a lock and could really use this road win to boost that resume. I don't think that will be a problem for K-State, who has played very well on the road against some good teams and hungry for a win off a loss to ISU. Volunteers are 2-14 ATS in their last 14 off an upset win as an underdog and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 when off an upset win against a conference opponent. Tennessee is also 6-21 ATS in their last 27 as a home favorite or pick and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 vs the Big 12. Take Kansas State! |
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01-27-17 | Hornets v. Knicks | Top | 107-110 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA Situational Vegas Insider Top Play on Hornets - I look for the Hornets to take care of the Knicks tonight. Charlotte comes in off back-to-back losses. The last one was a hard fought defeat at home to the Warriors. The other was against the Wizards, who are playing as well as anyone right now. I believe it has the Hornets in a prime bounce back spot against a Knicks team that has lost its way. New York has gone 4-14 over their last 18 games and the trade rumors with Melo aren't going to help turn this around. That's more of a sign that the team is throwing in the towel on this season. New York is just 13-26 ATS in their last 39 as a home underdog of 6 or less and the road team has gone 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in the series. Take Charlotte! |
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01-26-17 | Oregon v. Utah -2.5 | Top | 73-67 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Pac-12 Game of the Month on Utah - I really like the value here with the Utes laying a short number at home against the Ducks. Oregon comes in ranked No. 10 and have won 16 straight, so the public is going to be all over them against an unranked Utah team. That's even with the Ducks best player in Dillon Brooks questionable to play. This Utah team has been playing exceptional basketball and I firmly believe they are one of the 15 best teams in the country right now. They are 7-2 in their last 9 with their two losses being a 10-point defeat at Arizona and 1-point loss at home to UCLA. Oregon is due for a bad game and Utah is not an easy place to play. I think the Utes take control of this game and win here going away. Utah is 15-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons in conference home games, 5-0 in their last 5 as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less, 11-2 in their last 13 home games after 2 straight wins by 20 or more points and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games after a game where they made 50% or more of their 3-point shots. Take Utah! |
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01-25-17 | 76ers v. Bucks -11 | Top | 114-109 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Bucks - The 76ers added to their incredible run of late with a 121-110 win at home over the Clippers last night, spoiling the return of Blake Griffin. That's now 9 wins in 12 games for Philadelphia. While I think this will continue to be a good team to back going forward, this spot is not one of them. The 76ers are playing on no rest, plus it will be their 4th game in the last 6 days overall. They won't have Joel Embiid for this contest and Jahlil Okafor is questionable. It reminds me a lot of their last road game, where they got crushed by 17 at Atlanta. Milwaukee isn't going to take the 76ers lightly, as they come into this game 1-5 over their last 6. Though they did get a big win last time out in a 127-114 win at home over the Rockets. That's the kind of win you can build on. Another reason the Bucks won't overlook Philadelphia, is they just lost at home to the 76ers 104-113 back on 1/16. Keep in mind they were only a 8.5-favorite that time, so the books see this as a much bigger mismatch. 76ers are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after a contest where both teams scored 100+ and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 when playing on 0 days rest. Take Milwaukee! |
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01-24-17 | Kansas State v. Iowa State -3.5 | Top | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa State - I really like the value here with the Cyclones as a short home favorite against the Wildcats. Iowa State is tough to beat on their home court and after falling to Kansas in their last home game, I expect a huge effort here by the Cyclones. Iowa State is 7-2 at home on the season and are 51-20 ATS in their last 71 at home as a favorite of 6 or less. They are also 30-16 ATS in their last 46 home games off a conference win. Kansas State is getting a lot of respect here off their big win at home over West Virginia, but I actually think that has them primed for a letdown here on the road. The Wildcats are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a game where they covered the spread. Take Iowa State! |
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01-23-17 | Spurs v. Nets OVER 217 | Top | 112-86 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs/Nets OVER I don't think the books have set the bar high enough for tonight's total between the Spurs and Nets. Brooklyn is a bad team, but their ability to put up points combined with their inability to play defense, makes them a great team to back on the OVER. The Nets come in averaging 106.2 ppg , while allowing 114.9 ppg. The Spurs can make great defenses look average and should have no problem scoring at will here against Brooklyn. San Antonio is averaging 108.1 ppg on the road this season and scored 130 on the Nets in the first meeting this season. OVER is 12-4 in the Spurs last 16 after 3 or more consecutive wins and 13-3 in their last 16 after shooting 50% or better from the field in each of their last 3 games. OVER is 13-4 in the Nets Last 17 non-conference games and 23-9 in their last 32 when they come in having failed to cover the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Take the OVER! |
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01-21-17 | Louisville v. Florida State -3 | Top | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
5* NCAAB No Limit ACC Game of the Week on Florida State - I really like the value here with the Seminoles laying just 3-points at home against the Cardinals. Florida State has failed to cover their last two, but it's not like they haven't played well. Last time out they won 83-80 at home over a very good Notre Dame team as a 5.5-point favorite. On the flip side, Louisville is getting all kind of love, as they have won 4 straight and gone 3-1 ATS during the stretch. The big key here is this is the first real test for the Cardinals away from home since they played at Notre Dame, which was their last loss (70-77). FSU has already beat the likes of Duke, Virginia Tech and Florida at home and I just don't think the majority of people realize just how good this team is. Seminoles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games off a win and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games after playing their previous game at home. Take Florida State! |
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01-20-17 | Raptors +1.5 v. Hornets | Top | 78-113 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Raptors +1.5 I like the value here with the Raptors as a small road dog against the Hornets. Toronto is going to come out with a chip on their shoulder after ending their 4-game winning streak with a 89-94 loss at Philadelphia. Charlotte on the other hand is getting a lot of love here after a 107-85 blowout win over the Blazers at home. Beating Portland by 20+ at home isn't anything to get overly excited about with the way the Blazers have struggled on the road this season. Let's not forget this Hornets team had lost their previous 5 games. Toronto has lost consecutive games just 4 times this season. The common factor in all 4 is the second loss came when the Raptors were playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. That's not the case here tonight and I look for Toronto to find a way to win this one. Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 after a SU loss and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Charlotte is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 off a cover and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Toronto! |
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01-19-17 | Wizards v. Knicks +2.5 | Top | 113-110 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Knicks + I like the value here with New York as a home dog against the Wizards. New York is coming off their best game in quite some time, as they went on the road an upset the Celtics 117-106 as a 8.5-point dog last night. The thing is, this team is still getting zero respect because of how bad they have been of late (3-11 L14). Washington also come in off a win last night over Memphis and have won 3 straight overall, but all 3 wins came at home. I look for the Wizards to struggle here in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road, especially when you factor in that Washington is just 4-13 away from home on the season. Wizards are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 off a close win by 3 points or less, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning home record and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 when playing on 0 days rest. Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home games after a division game last time out. Take New York! |
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01-18-17 | Pacers v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 106-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Kings - I like the value here with the Kings laying a short number at home against the Pacers. Sacramento is just 1-5 in their last 6, but are primed for a big effort here and will finally have some fresh legs playing just their 2nd game in the last 5 days. The big key here is the Pacers just aren't a good road team. Indiana has a winning overall record at 21-19, but are a mere 5-14 on the road and this is a long way from Indiana. Not to mention the Pacers are probably still filling the hangover effect from their trip to London last week. Pacers are a mere 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games after a SU win, while the Kings are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after playing a game as a home dog and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 off a SU loss. Take Sacramento! |
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01-17-17 | New Mexico v. Boise State -5.5 | Top | 81-70 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Mountain West Game of the Month on Boise State - I think the books have made a big mistake here making the Broncos a relatively short home favorite against the Lobos. This is a prime bounce back spot for Boise State at home, as they just had their 7-game winning streak snapped in a poor showing on the road against Fresno State. Now the Broncos return home, where they are a perfect 7-0 on the season and outscoring opponents on their home floor by an average of 78.7 to 60.6. As for New Mexico, they are just 3-6 on the road this season and despite a win at Colorado State last time out are not playing well of late. The Lobos are just 1-3 in their last 4 and that includes home losses to both Nevada and UNLV as favorites. New Mexico is giving up 77.4 ppg on the road this season and I just don't see them being able to keep pace here, as I have Boise State winning by double-digits. Broncos are red-hot from long-distance and are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after 2 straight games where they made 10 or more of their 3-point attempts. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 as a favorite of 6.5 or less. Take Boise State! |
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01-16-17 | DePaul +8.5 v. St. John's | Top | 68-78 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Top Play on DePaul + I like the value here with DePaul catching a big number against a St. John's team that I think is right on the same level as the Blue Demons. DePaul did lose at home 73-79 to St. John's a couple weeks ago, but that could have went either way. I think it gives the Blue Demons an edge here playing with revenge. St. John's has lost 4 straight since that win at DePaul and don't have a great home court edge. Keep in mind this is a team that lost by 16 at home to Penn State as a 3.5-point favorite and by 7 to Delaware State as a 22.5-points favorite. St. John's is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after losing 4 of 5 and 6-18 ATS in their last 24 as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. We also got a big time system in play, backing the Blue Demons. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, revenging a home loss against an opponent off a road loss by 20 or more are 56-22 (72%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Take DePaul! |
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01-14-17 | Missouri v. Arkansas OVER 149 | Top | 73-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
5* NCAAB SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER I think the books have missed the mark on the total in today's SEC clash between Missouri and Arkansas, as I see this one going well over the number set here. The Razorbacks are a strong offensive team, averaging 81.6 ppg on the season and 83.2 ppg at home. They should have no problem coming close to that mark here against a Missouri defense that is giving up 78.7 ppg in conference play. While the Tigers don't feature an explosive offense, they are averaging a respectable 70.7 ppg on the season and are a tick higher in league play at 71.7 ppg. Arkansas is far from an elite defense and have really struggled on that side in SEC play, as they are giving up 85.0 ppg and have yet to hold a conference foe under 78 points. Another big key here is that both of these teams like to play a more up-tempo style, which leads to more possessions and more scoring. Take the OVER! |
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01-13-17 | Hornets -5 v. 76ers | Top | 93-102 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Hornets - I really like the value here with Charlotte laying what I feel is a low number on the road against the 76ers. I believe we are getting this short number due to the fact that the Hornets have lost 3 straight, while Philadelphia has gone 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games. I'm just not buying the 76ers being as good as this recent stretch and most of those wins came against bad teams. They were extremely fortunate to win their last game, which they trailed big throughout and were down 10 points with less than 3 minutes to play. We should get a big time effort here from the Hornets, who will be playing with a full 2 days of rest and eager to put their 3-game skid behind them. Keep in mind all 3 losses during the streak have come on the road, the last two against two of the top teams in the west in Houston and San Antonio. This is also the first time 5 meetings that Charlotte has been favored by less than 9.5-points in this series (won 7 of 8). Hornets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record, while the 76ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 at home. Take Charlotte! |
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01-12-17 | USC v. Utah -5 | Top | 64-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Top Play on Utah - I've been on this Utah team in each of their last two games, which they covered as a 11-point dog at Arizona (56-66) and 3-point favorite at Arizona St (88-82). I got no problem backing them again at home against USC as a short favorite. This Utes team is better than people realize. The books are being slow to adjust as the public hasn't quite caught on. Utah added to big time transfers recently (weren't eligible early) in David Collette and Sedrick Barefield. Both are averaging double-figures and Collette is leading the team with 15.4 ppg. As good as USC has been to start the year, they have not looked nearly as good in Pac-12 play. They lost at Oregon by 23 and just lost at home to Cal. Utah is one of the more difficult places to play and the Utes are 8-1 at home. Their only home game in Pac-12 play was against a quality Colorado team and they annihilated them 76-60. I see another big win here for the Utes, who are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after playing 2 straight on the road. Take Utah! |
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01-11-17 | George Washington +10.5 v. VCU | Top | 55-85 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
5* NCAAB A-10 Game of the Month on George Wash + I really like the value we are getting with the Colonials as a double-digit dog at VCU. George Washington comes in with a mere 9-7 record, but a lot of that is just not being to close out games late. All but 1 of those losses came by fewer than 10-points. The only exception being a 19-point loss to FSU, who I believe is one of the 5 best teams in the country. VCU on the other hand is 13-3, but have played the much easier schedule in my opinion. Keep in mind this is a team that lost by 18 to Illinois and also lost at home to George Tech. The other big thing is this not the Rams teams of years past, where they were one of the top mid-major teams under Shaka Smart. I just feel these two teams are more evenly matched than this spread would suggest. It's worth nothing that the Colonials went into VCU and beat the Rams 72-69 as a 9-point dog a year ago. The Colonials are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 on the road against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Rams on the other hand are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite. Take George Washington! |
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01-10-17 | Blazers v. Lakers OVER 222.5 | Top | 108-87 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Lakers/Blazers OVER I got no problem playing the over on this big total here with the Blazers and Lakers. All signs point to a high-scoring game in this one. We have two teams that don't play a lot of defense. In fact, each ranks in the bottom 3 in defensive efficiency. The Lakers are allowing 109.8 ppg and the Blazers are allowing 111.5 ppg (even worse 113.9 ppg on the road). Not only do we have two teams who don't play defense, but we have two offenses that like to get out and run and shoot a lot of 3-pointers. Both rank in the Top 10 in pace. Portland averages 108.2 ppg and Los Angeles is at 105.3 ppg overall and a much better 109.8 ppg at home. Each team is also trending up on offense, with the Blazers scoring 109.6 ppg over the last 5 games and the Lakers at 115.4 ppg. OVER is 12-4 in the Blazers last 16 road games with a total of 210 or more and 13-4 in their last 17 on the road after allowing 105 or more in each of their last 2 games. OVER is also 13-3 in the Lakers last 16 against a team with a losing record, 13-5 in their last 18 at home and 7-3 in their last 10 when facing a team that allowed 100+ in their previous game. Take the OVER! |
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01-08-17 | Rutgers v. Iowa -9.5 | Top | 62-68 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa - The Hawkeyes should have no problem cashing in a double-digit win at home against the Scarlet Knights on Sunday. Iowa is a young team that took their lumps in non-conference play against some good teams and are likely going to continue to struggle against the elite teams in the Big 10. The key here is that Rutgers is far from elite. The Scarlet Knights have started out conference play with a 20-point loss at Wisconsin, 13-point loss at home to Penn State and 28-point loss at Michigan State. The thing with Iowa is this is a team that believes they are much better than their record and know that if they want any chance of making the NCAA Tournament, they have to finish in the top half of the Big Ten standings. Sitting at 1-2 in league play, this is a must-win for the Hawkeyes at home, where they are a very respectable 8-2 on the season. Note that Rutgers is just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games and 1-13 ATS in their last 14 after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 games. Take Iowa! |
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01-06-17 | Knicks +6 v. Bucks | Top | 116-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Knicks + I really like the value here with the Knicks catching a pretty big number on the road against the Bucks. These two teams just played Wednesday in New York and the Bucks won 105-104 on a last second shot by Antetokounmpo. Having just lost head-to-head, the game now being played in Milwaukee and the Knicks now having lost 6 straight all have this line much higher than it should be. The team that loses the first of these home-and-home series has a big motivational edge in the rematch and even more so when the line is as high as it is. It's also worth noting that previous game in New York came with the Knicks playing without Porzingis. He practiced fully yesterday and all signs point to him suiting up tonight. Even if he ends up sitting out, I still like the Knicks to cover here and think there's a good chance they can win outright. We also find a strong system in play here. Road team that have allowed 105 or more points in 3 straight games and playing a team off a win by 6 or less are 33-8 (81%) over the last 5 seasons. Take New York! |
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01-05-17 | Minnesota v. Northwestern -4 | Top | 70-66 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big Ten Game of the Week on Northwestern - This is a great spot to back the Wildcats laying a short number at home. We are seeing some great value here on Northwestern, based off the results in the last game for both teams. While the Wildcats lost at Michigan State 52-61 as a mere 2.5-point dog, the Gophers won 91-82 as a 14-point dog at Purdue. Winning back-to-back road games is not easy, especially in conference play and in a elite conference like the Big 10. I look for a big letdown here for Minnesota, while we can expect to see a max effort from Northwestern, who I believe is going to finally break their NCAA Tournament drought this season. Gophers are 1-15 ATS in their last 16 as a road dog of 6.5 or less, while Wildcats are 6-0 ATS last 6 as a favorite of 6.5 or less, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 at home and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after failing to cover in their last game. Take Northwestern! |
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01-04-17 | Louisville v. Notre Dame +1 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
5* NCAAB ACC Game of the Month on Notre Dame + I think the books have created some great value here with the Irish, as my numbers suggest Notre Dame should be favored here. This is a really tough spot for Louisville, who is coming off a big 15-point win over Indiana, which they were extremely motivated for after losing at home to Virginia the previous time out. Now the Cardinals hit the road for only their second true road game of the season. The first one was at Grand Canyon, which doesn't really count. Note there wasn't even a spread on that game it was such a big mismatch and yet Louisville only won by 9. I've watched this Notre Dame team on several occasions and really like what I have seen. The big key here is the Irish are at home, where they are 9-0 on the season, outscoring opponents by 26.7 ppg. Notre Dame also has a great history against the Cardinals of late, as they have won and covered 5 straight at home. Louisville is also just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games against a conference opponent and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Notre Dame! |
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01-03-17 | Wolves -4.5 v. 76ers | Top | 91-93 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Timberwolves - I have no problem laying this small number on the road with the Timberwolves. Minnesota is a much better team than their 11-23 record would indicate and a big part of that has been the inability to hold on to big leads. The Timberwolves have 9 losses this season where they led by double-digits. That includes their last game, where a 12-point halftime lead turned into a 89-95 loss at home to the Blazers. I think that loss is playing into this low number here and creating great value with Minnesota in a huge bounce back spot. Philadelphia comes in off a 124-122 win at Denver, but have won back-to-back games just twice all season. I don't see it happening here, as this is a really bad matchup for the 76ers. Keep in mind the Timberwolves already annihilated Philadelphia 110-86 at home earlier this season and they were a 11.5-point favorite, which means they should be laying closer to 7.5 instead of 4.5 here. 76ers are just 5-17 ATS in their last 22 when revenging a loss of 20 or more points, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 when playing on 3 or more days of rest and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take Minnesota! |
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12-27-16 | Cornell v. Syracuse -19.5 | Top | 56-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
5* NCAAB No Limit Game of the Month on Syracuse - This is an ideal spot to back the Orange at home. Last time out Syracuse was embarrassed on their home floor 60-93 by St. John's as a 14-point favorite. The loss dropped the Orange to 7-5 overall and just 3-5 in their last 8. The key here is that all 5 losses came against quality programs in South Carolina, Wisconsin, UConn, Georgetown and St. John's. With their ACC opener on deck Sunday at BC, this is a game the Orange are going to come out looking to make a statement and get some momentum going into league play. They should have no problem doing just that. Cornell is a mere 3-8 and have had a horrible time keeping games respectable against better talent. The Big Red's closest opponent talent wise to Syracuse was Houston and they lost to the Cougars by 30-points. The other thing here is that Syracuse has shown the ability to feast on bad teams. Out of their 7 wins, 6 have come by 20+ points, including a 105-57 win over E Michigan at home just last week. Take Syracuse! |
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12-25-16 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 221 | Top | 108-109 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
5* Warriors/Cavs Vegas Insider Top Play on UNDER Playing on Christmas Day is a big deal for these NBA players and there's not a bigger game on the schedule today that the NBA Finals rematch between the Warriors and Cavs. Both teams want to make a statement and send a message to other team that they are the team to beat this year. While it won't quite be the intensity of a Game 7, it will be close. A lot of people get taken in by what these two teams can do offensively, but both are elite defensive teams when they want to be. They just don't play with that intensity on defense every game, as they can just rely on their offense to carry them against the majority of the league. Keep in mind that these two combined for just 182 points in Game 7 last year and we are sitting here with a total north of 220. Take the UNDER! |
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12-21-16 | Bucks v. Cavs UNDER 209 | Top | 102-113 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
5* NBA Central Division Play of the Month on Bucks/Cavs UNDER We had the UNDER in last night's game which was a tough loss, as the two teams finished UNDER the total in regulation, but the game went to OT and pushed it over the mark. On the bright side, I believe has kept tonight's total higher than it should be. More time than not, these second games of a home-and-home set on back-to-back nights end up being a much lower scoring game than the first time around. The fact that these two had to play an extra 5 mines last night, only helps us here. I also wouldn't be surprised if the Cavs decided to rest some players here, as they want to be fresh for Sunday's big Christmas Day showdown against the Warriors (have to play Brooklyn Friday). Note that J.R. Smith is already listed as doubtful and Kevin Love is questionable and likely won't play. UNDER is 35-18 in Cleveland's last 53 home games after giving up 105 or more points in 2 straight games and 13-3 in their last 16 after covering the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. UNDER is also 5-1 in the Bucks last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest and 10-4 in their last 14 against division opponents. Take the UNDER! |
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12-16-16 | Bucks v. Bulls -4.5 | Top | 95-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
5* NBA Central Division Game of the Month on Bulls - The Bucks jumped on the Bulls early at home last night and cruised to a 108-97 win, easily covering the spread as a pick'em. I wasn't the least bit surprised to see Chicago come out flat, as they knew they were going to get Milwaukee on their home court tonight. The biggest thing with these home-and-home matchups is making sure you get at least a split. So while the Bulls are going to come out extremely motivated here, the Bucks will struggle to bring that same intensity they had last night. Another big key here is this Chicago team has shown that when they are motivated and want to play well, more times than not they deliver. Prime examples being their recent home wins over both the Cavs and Spurs. It's also worth pointing out the Bucks aren't nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Milwaukee is 9-6 at home, compared to 3-6 on the road. The Bucks are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games and 0-6 in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Milwaukee is also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest. Take Chicago! |
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12-15-16 | Knicks v. Warriors OVER 224 | Top | 90-103 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
5* Knicks/Warriors TNT Vegas Insider Top Play on OVER I look for the Warriors to light up the scoreboard tonight against the Knicks. Golden State is coming off a 5-game road trip, where they only averaged 107.8 ppg. That might seem like a lot, but this is a team that's averaging 117.8 ppg on the season. They have been electric at home, scoring 123.9 ppg. The Knicks have been better than a lot of people expected, but have struggled when facing the elite teams. They simply aren't a good enough defensive team to put up a serious fight here. The key here is the Warriors up tempo offense allows for their opponents to put up a big number. Golden State is allowing 109.2 ppg at home, as opponents are averaging 90 shot attempts against them. With just 1-day off after that 5-game road trip, I just don't see the all out defensive intensity that would be needed to keep this from going over the total. It's also worth pointing out that all 5 of the Warriors game on their road trip went under the total, which only adds to the value here, as the OVER is 23-9 in their last 32 after 5 or more consecutive games going under the total. OVER is also 21-7 in the Knicks last 28 road games off a close road loss by 3 or less (lost 111-113 in OT at Phoenix on Tuesday). Take the OVER! |
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12-14-16 | Pistons -5 v. Mavs | Top | 95-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Pistons - I have no problem laying this small number on the road with Detroit against a bad Mavericks team. The Pistons have been playing some of their best basketball here of late, as they are 7-4 in their last 11. I look for them to be extra motivated here after an embarrassing showing at home in a 79-97 loss to the 76ers. Detroit hasn't lost back-to-back games since the middle of November and I don't expect that streak to end here. Dallas is still without three key pieces in Nowitzki, Barea, and Bogut and are going to struggle to be competitive without them in the lineup. The Mavericks are getting some love here off a 20-point blowout win at home against the Nuggets, but they haven't won back-to-back games since the beginning of November. Last time they followed up a win over the Pacers with a 22-point blowout loss to the Rockets. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Detroit laid a similar type of beating on them here. Pistons are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 off an upset loss as a favorite and have won these games by almost 8.0 ppg. Take Detroit! |
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12-13-16 | Wolves v. Bulls OVER 208.5 | Top | 99-94 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on OVER I look for a lot of offense in tonight's game between the Bulls and Timberwolves. Chicago comes in averaging 105.6 ppg at home and should see their offense improve over what it's been of late with the recent return of key reserve Doug McDermott. On top of that, they will facing a Minnesota team that has struggled on the defensive side of the ball. The Timberwolves are giving up 109.8 ppg on the road and come in having allowed 100+ points in each of their last 9. While Minnesota isn't playing much defense, they are getting it done on the offensive side of the ball, as they are scoring 103.9 ppg. Chicago is a decent defensive team, but are trending in the wrong direction. They are allowing 102.4 ppg over their last 5 and have given up 100+ points in 5 of their last 6. OVER is 33-18 in the Timberwolves last 51 road games, 16-4 in their last 20 non-conference road games and 9-1 in their last 10 road games after giving up 60 or more points in the 1st half of their last game. Take the OVER! |
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12-10-16 | Utah v. Xavier -11.5 | Top | 69-77 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Non-Conference Game of Month on Xavier - I have zero problem laying double-digits on the Musketeers at home against the Utes. Xavier is going to be all business when they take the floor here, as they come in looking to snap a 2-game losing streak, which saw them lose at Baylor 61-76 and at Colorado 66-68. Baylor is an elite team and Colorado is one of the toughest places to play. Look for the Musketeers at home to return to the form that saw them open up the season 7-0. Utah on the other hand is a team that I think is still getting some love for what they did a year ago, when they finished up 27-9 and 2nd in the Pac-12. The Utes only returned 2 starters from that team and loss their most important player in big man Jakob Poeltl. So far Utah has played a cupcake schedule, which has allowed them to jump out to a 6-1 record. The only decent team they played was Butler and they lost to them on their home floor by 9-points. It's also worth pointing out that Utah has yet to play a game on the road or on a neutral court and it's not easy playing that first true road game, especially for an inexperienced team going up against an elite team like Xavier who is playing with a chip on their shoulder. Take Xavier! |
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12-09-16 | Hawks v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bucks - I'll gladly back the Bucks at home against the slumping Hawks. Atlanta was able to snap a 7-game losing streak with a 103-95 win at home against the Heat, but that's nothing to get excited about, as Miami was missing half their roster. The Hawks are now just 2-10 in their last 12 after starting out the season 9-2. While Atlanta is trending down, Milwaukee comes in playing some of their best basketball of the season. The Bucks have won 5 of 6, with the only loss coming against the Spurs at home by a single point. Milwaukee bounced back two nights later and defeated the Blazers 115-107. When things are going bad in Atlanta it's a good idea to keep fading them, as the Hawks are just 3-16 ATS in their last 19 under head coach Budenholzer when they come into a contest having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. The Hawks are also just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against the Eastern Conference. The Bucks on the other hand are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 overall and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 when playing with 1 day of rest. It's also worth pointing out the Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 in the series and the home team has covered 4 of the last 5. Take Milwaukee! |
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12-07-16 | Celtics -3.5 v. Magic | Top | 117-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf Game of the Month on Celtics - I really like the value here with Boston laying a short number here on the road against the Magic. The Celtics could be without starting point guard Isaiah Thomas, but are well equipped to play without him, as Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier and Avery Bradley can all bring the ball up the court if needed. Orlando comes in having won 3 straight, but two of those wins came against bad team in the 76ers and Wizards and the other was against the Pistons in a huge flat spot after a long road trip and big game against the Bulls on deck. Now it's the Magic who are in a flat spot, as they just played 5 straight on the road and have to return home on no rest after playing last night in Washington. While Orlando is poised for a bad showing, we should get a strong effort here from the Celtics off a 1-point loss at Houston. Boston hasn't lost back-to-back games since early November and are 4-1 ATS in L5 off a loss. They are also a solid 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS (5-1 L6) on the road, while the Magic are just 4-6 SU and 2-7 ATS at home this season. Celtics are also a solid 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against the Eastern Conference. Take Boston! |
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12-06-16 | Suns v. Jazz OVER 203 | Top | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Suns/Jazz OVER I think the books have set the bar way to low here on the total for tonight's game between the Suns and Jazz. While Utah is only allowing 91.8 ppg at home and just 95.1 ppg on the season, they haven't been locking down opponents of late, giving up 102.5 ppg over their last 5. Phoenix is a team that is capable of scoring on anyone and come in having put up 100+ in all but 4 games this season. They are really clicking at the moment, as they are shooting 49.6% from the field in their last 5 games. Utah is also in great form offensively right now, which is part of the reason they haven't been getting after teams defensively. The Jazz have scored at least 105 points in 5 straight games and will have no problem keeping that streak going against the Suns, who are giving up 113.2 ppg on the season and 115.2 ppg on the road. OVER is 12-4 in the Suns 16 games this season against teams who average at least 18 3-point attempts per game, 9-1 in their last 10 after allowing 100 or more points in 3 straight games, 11-2 in their last 13 when playing on 2 days of rest and 7-0 this season against teams with a winning record. OVER is also 8-0 in Utah's last 8 when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. Take the OVER! |
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12-05-16 | Spurs v. Bucks +6.5 | Top | 97-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bucks + Milwaukee is showing some great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Spurs. The Bucks come into this one playing their best basketball of the season. Milwaukee has won 4 straight, which includes a 118-101 blowout win at home over the Cavaliers. I expect to see that same intensity when the Bucks take the floor here against the Spurs. San Antonio comes in having won 11 of their 12 games, but are not blowing teams out like they have in years past. Out of those 11 wins, only one of them came by double-digits and that was a mere 12-point win at Washington. This has also been a very favorable stretch for the Spurs, as they haven't faced a lot of good teams during their recent run. I think Milwaukee is not only capable of keeping this close enough to cover, but can certainly win this game outright. Bucks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 when playing on 1 day of rest and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against the Western Conference. Spurs are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when playing with 2 days of rest. Take Milwaukee! |
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12-02-16 | Rockets v. Nuggets -3.5 | Top | 128-110 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA Situational Game of the Month on Nuggets - This is an ideal spot to back Denver at home against the Rockets. You might be asking yourself why Houston is a dog against a team that has 5 fewer wins them after they just knocked off the Warriors last night in Golden State. The answer is this this is the ultimate letdown spot for the Rockets. It was going to be hard enough bouncing back from that game against the Warriors, but add in the fact that it took double-overtime and they simply aren't going to have much left in the tank for the Nuggets. Only adding value is that Denver is one of the more difficult places to play in the second leg of a back-to-back, as the thin air only makes it that much harder for teams to play well when fatigued. It wouldn't shock me if Houston decided to just throw in the towel here and rest some players, as Harden, Anderson and Ariza all logged at least 43 minutes last night. Even Eric Gordon off the bench put in 39 minutes. Whether they play or not, I look for Denver to win here comfortably. The Nuggets haven't played up to their potential early on, as they are just 7-11, but a lot of that had to do with injuries. Denver is finally starting to get healthy. I've also really been impressed with rookie reserve Jamal Murray, who just took down the Rookie of the Month honors in the west. Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 100 or more points in 5 straight games. Take Denver! |
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12-01-16 | Cincinnati v. Iowa State -7 | Top | 55-54 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Top Play on Iowa State - I got no problem laying this number with the Cyclones at home on Thursday against the Bearcats. This Iowa State team was just tested in their 3-games in Florida against Indiana State, Miami and Gonzaga. They escaped with a 73-71 win over an underrated Sycamores squad, crushed the Hurricanes 73-56 and came up just short against a top level Gonzaga team in a 71-73 defeat. Now they return home to Hilton Coliseum, where they are nearly unbeatable, as they have gone 60-5 at home over the last 4 seasons. The Bearcats come in at 5-1, but have played a soft schedule early. Their 5 wins are against Brown, Albany, Penn State, Samford, and Lipscomb. The lone lost was a neutral site game against Rhode Island by 5. While Rhode Island is a decent team, they aren't on the same level as the Cyclones. It's also worth pointing out that Cincinnati could be without their best player in Gary Clark, who is the heart and soul of this team. He's questionable with an ankle injury. Even if he plays, I don't think the Bearcats defense will be good enough on the road against an explosive ISU offense that is putting up 88.8 ppg. Cincinnati is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing only their 2nd game in a 8-day stretch, while the Cyclones are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after a close loss by 3-points or less. Take Iowa State! |
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11-30-16 | Lakers v. Bulls -10.5 | Top | 96-90 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Game of the Week on Bulls - This is going to seem like a big number for Chicago to be laying at home against a Lakers team that has surprised early this season, but the situation calls for a blowout win by the Bulls. Chicago is rested up and ready to get back to action after a 4-day break following their 6-game road trip. Los Angeles on the other hand is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, as they played in New Orleans last night. This is also the Lakers 3rd game in the last 4 days and 6th in the last 9. LA has been trending in the wrong direction of late, as they are just 2-5 in their last 7. It doesn't figure to get much better going forward, as the Lakers continue to be without starting point guard D'Angelo Russell. They also figure to be without Nick Young, who is doubtful with an ankle injury. It also wouldn't come as a surprise if they decided to sit out Julius Randle in a back-to-back scenario, as he just returned from a knee injury. These two teams recently played in Los Angeles and the Bulls won 118-110, which I think is a good sign of what's to come here. Keep in mind Chicago won by 8 playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, which was also their 4th straight on the road and 3rd in a 4 day stretch. With the Lakers injuries and the Bulls strong play at home (4-1), this should get ugly in a hurry. Take Chicago! |
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11-29-16 | Davidson -3.5 v. Mercer | Top | 78-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Davidson - I really like the value here with the Wildcats laying a small number on the road against the Bears. Davidson is 4-1 and have really responded well to their ugly early season loss to Clemson. The Wildcats followed up that loss with a 70-55 win over Missouri, 68-60 win against Arizona State and 79-57 blowout win at home against Charlotte. Mercer is 4-2 and have lost both games against respectable opponents, losing 54-76 to Florida and 63-65 to Akron. The Bears are simply outclassed in this one. Davidson is just starting to play up to their potential. Keep in mind this is a team that returned 4 starters from a team that went 20-13 last year and closed out the season 8-3 over their last 11 games. Doing so despite some key injuries and struggles defensively (78.1 ppg, 304th). The Wildcats will have the two best players on the floor in senior guard Jack Gibbs (21.0 ppg) and junior forward Peyton Aldridge (19.8 ppg, 7.6 rpg). Davidson's defense has been much better so far this season, allowing just 68.2 ppg and holding opponents to just 36.9% shooting. On top of that, Mercer isn't a great offensive team, averaging just 68.7 ppg. It's also worth pointing out that the Bears live and die by the 3-point shot, averaging 22 attempts a game. That plays into the strength of the Wildcats defense, which is only giving up 30.8% shooting from long-distance and are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 against teams who average 21 or more 3-point shots a game. Take Davidson! |
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11-26-16 | Knicks v. Hornets -6 | Top | 102-107 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Hornets - This is all about the situation and it heavily favors the Hornets. These two teams played last night in New York, with the Knicks winning 113-111 in overtime. Now they head to Charlotte for a rematch and the Hornets are clearly going to be the more motivated team after losing yesterday. The Knicks come in having won 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall, but all 5 of those wins came at home. The lone loss was on the road to a bad Wizards team by 7-points. New York has really struggled to play well away from home, as they are just 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS on the highway this season. I know the Hornets comes in having lost 4 straight, but this is a much better team than their recent form would suggest. This is a huge statement game for the Hornets and I expect them to deliver with a double-digit win. Take Charlotte -6! |
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11-23-16 | Wisconsin v. North Carolina -4.5 | Top | 56-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
5* Wisconsin/N Carolina NCAAB No Limit Top Play on North Carolina - I think this is a great spot to go against the Badgers, who come in off an impressive 73-57 win over Georgetown as a mere 5-point favorite. Not to take anything away from that win, but the Hoyas have been extremely inconsistent to start the year and certainly didn't look all that interested in playing that game. Wisconsin had a 50 to 21 edge in rebounds with a 20-1 edge on the offensive boards. That right there shows the lack of effort by Georgetown. Either way, the Badgers aren't going to have that same luxury of dominating the board against the Tar Heels. North Carolina comes in averaging 48.3 rebounds/game and are averaging a +18 rebound margin on the season. With the extra possessions, that's really going to make it tough for the Badgers to keep pace offensively with this explosive Tar Heels offense that comes in averaging 96.5 ppg. It's not just the offensive side of the ball where UNC is playing well, they are only giving up 67.2 ppg, which is about 10 ppg fewer than what their opposition is averaging. I see this as a similar matchup to Wisconsin's earlier 67-79 loss at Creighton, expect the Tar Heels are a much better team than Creighton. UNC clearly means business in this tournament, as they absolutely dominated Oklahoma State 107-75 last night as a mere 9-point favorite. Take North Carolina! |
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11-22-16 | Georgia Southern v. Akron -9.5 | Top | 67-75 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Top Play on Akron - This is a great spot to back the Zips at home, as they come in off a 88-41 blowout win over Radford, where they shot 56.6% from the field and connected on 13 3-pointers. When Akron gets going from the outside, they are difficult team to contain. The Zips were 2nd in the country a year ago with an average of 11.7 3-pointers made per game. Adding to this, is the fact that Akron is a dominant 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games after a game where they made 13 or more 3-point shots, winning in this spot by an average of 10.0 ppg. This isn't just a team that can beat you from the outside, Akron also returns 1st All-MAC center Isaiah Johnson, who averaged 13.6 ppg and 7.6 rpg, despite only starting 9 games. This Zips team is without question the class of the MAC conference and would have been in the NCAA Tournament a year ago had they not lost the title game of the MAC Tournament. Georgia Southern is a solid team, but are just 1-2 to start the year, including an ugly 13-point loss last time out at Mercer. They have really struggled offensively in their two true road games, as they are shooting just 36.9% from the field away from home. The defense has also been an issue on the highway, as they are giving up 80.5 ppg on the road. I just don't see the Eagles being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Take Akron! |
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11-18-16 | Georgia State v. Purdue -18 | Top | 56-64 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
5* NCAAB No Limit Vegas Top Play on Purdue - I really like the Boilermaker team and feel like this is a great spot to back them, as we can bank on a big effort here after losing at home last time out in a heartbreaker to Villanova. That should be all that's need to take down Georgia State by 20+ points at home. The Panthers are a scrappy team, but lost some key pieces from last year and are simply outclassed here against the Boilermakers. They lost last time out at Auburn by 18 and that's a young Tigers team. Purdue is light years ahead of Auburn and I believe their size inside is going to make life miserable for Georgia State. The Panthers aren't a great 3-point shooting team and that's one area where you have to be strong, if you want to attack Purdue's defense. Georgia State is just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games in the month of November under head coach Ron Hunter, 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games when listed as an underdog and 9-21 ATS in their last 30 non-conference games. Purdue is 23-9 ATS in their last 32 after playing their previous game at home. Take Purdue! |
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11-17-16 | Michigan v. Marquette -1 | Top | 79-61 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
5* NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Marquette - I love the value here with the Golden Eagles as a small favorite against the Wolverines. I really like this Marquette team, who showed big time improvement from year one to year two under head coach Steve Wojciechowski. In his first year on the job the Golden Eagles went just 13-19. Last year they improved to 20-13, but just missed out on the NCAA Tournament. Something that certainly didn't sit well after they jumped out to a 12-4 record in their first 16 games, as they went just 8-9 to close out the year. While the Eagles lost a big piece in Henry Ellenson, they returned 4 starters from last year and added in talented freshman sharp shooter Sam Hauser and a big scoring threat on the wing in USC transfer Katin Reinhardt. They have certainly looked like a legit contender to start out, crushing Vanderbilt 95-71 as a mere 2-point favorite and rolling over Howard 81-49 as a 26 point favorite. Michigan returns Derrick Walton and Zak Irvin, but I have questions about the rest of the roster. They haven't got off to the best start, beating the same Howard team the Eagles crushed by a final of just 76-58. They also only beat IUPUI 77-65 in a game where they favored by 17.5-points. Poor shooting has been a big problem, as they shot just 42.3% against Howard and 45% against IUPUI. I also have concerns about their defense. They let Howard shoot 46.5% from the field. In comparison, the Golden Eagles held Howard to just 30.4%. Take Marquette! |
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11-16-16 | Rockets v. Thunder OVER 217 | Top | 103-105 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
5* Western Conference Total of the Month on Rockets/Thunder OVER These two teams should have no problem eclipsing this high total. These are two of the top offensive teams in the league. Houston comes in averaging 107.8 ppg, while Oklahoma City isn't too far behind at 108.9 ppg. The Thunder being at home only adds more value here, as OKC's scoring average jumps to 108.9 ppg at home and the Rockets are averaging 110.0 ppg on the road. It's also important to note that while both teams don't play at a frantic pace, they both like to get up and down the floor. I believe the biggest factor here is the matchup at point guard. James Harden and Russell Westbrook are putting up video game type numbers to start the season. Harden comes in averaging 30.3 ppg, 7.9 rpg and 12.6 apg. Westbrook is right there with him at 32.0 ppg, 9.7 rpg and 9.9 apg. Houston has the more weapons overall on offense, but the Rockets don't play much defense, especially Harden. We also find a strong system in play. The OVER is 51-23 (69%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off a home win by 10 or more points (Houston) in a game involving two marginal winning teams (Win % at 51% to 60%). Take the OVER! |
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11-15-16 | Hornets -2 v. Wolves | Top | 115-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Hornets - We are getting a great price here on Charlotte as a small road favorite against the Timberwolves. This Hornets team has been playing extremely well to start the season. They are T-5th in scoring differential at 5.5 ppg. They are 6-3 with their 3 losses coming against the Celtics, Raptors and Cavaliers. The key here is the public doesn't view them as an elite team and we are catching a great number here due to them losing their last two. It also helps that Minnesota is fresh off a 125-99 blowout win at home over the Lakers. The Timberwolves were a popular pick to surprise this season, but that hasn't been the case, as they are just 3-6 through 9 games. I believe the difference here is going to be defense, as both teams are strong offensively. Charlotte ranks 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while the Timberwolves come in at 24th. It's also worth pointing out that the Hornets defensive has really come to life on the road, as they are allowing just 95.5 ppg away from home. On top of that, we should get a big time effort here, as they try to avoid a third straight loss. The Timberwolves are just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games with a total of 200 to 209.5. Minnesota is also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win. Take Charlotte! |
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11-11-16 | Clippers -4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 110-108 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
5* Western Conference Game of the Month on Clippers - It's amazing how little attention the Clippers are getting right now. Los Angeles is 7-1 and getting it done on both sides of the floor. The Clippers are averaging 105.1 ppg, while allowing just 88.2 ppg. It's the way they are playing defensively that has impressed me, they are #1 in defensive efficiency, allowing just 89.3 ppg per opponents 100 possessions. The next best team is Charlotte at 95.4. When you play that hard on defense, it's a lot easier to win on the road and the Clippers are 3-0 away from home, securing wins at Portland, Memphis and San Antonio, all difficult places to play. The big key here for me is the lone loss for LA came at home against Oklahoma City, so there's some extra motivation for the Clippers in this one. The first meeting saw the Thunder win 85-83, so LA's defense was on point, but the offense just wasn't there. The Clippers shot just 39.1% from the field, well below their season average of 45%. I look for another strong effort here on the defensive side of the ball, with the offense doing a lot more to win here by 5+ points. Clippers are 24-12 ATS in their last 36 when revenging a loss to an oppponent and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 when listed as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Take Los Angeles! |
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11-10-16 | Lakers v. Kings -5 | Top | 101-91 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Kings - I like the value we are getting here with Sacramento as a small home favorite against the Lakers. I'll admit that LA has been better than expected in the early going, but this is still a young team that is learning how to win on the road. They are just 1-3 away from the Staples Center and the lone win came against the Hawks, where they shot lights out, hitting 53.9% from the field. This will be just the 4th home game for the Kings on the season. They are 2-1 with the lone loss coming in a hard fought game against the Spurs. Last time out they put away the Pelicans 102-94 as a 6.5-point favorite. I believe the key here is the Lakers won't have an answer for DeMarcus Cousins inside. He averaged 27 ppg and 11.3 rpg in the 4 games against LA last year. I also think it's worth pointing out the Kings just got back starting point guard Darren Collison last time out against New Orleans, so this team is even better than what they have shown so far. Lakers are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a double-digit loss at home. Take Sacramento! |
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11-09-16 | Jazz v. Hornets UNDER 194 | Top | 98-104 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Jazz/Hornets UNDER I really like the value here on the total in Wednesday's matchup between the Hornets and Jazz. The strength of both of these teams is their defense. Utah comes in allowing just 94.4 ppg and Charlotte is giving up just 96.5 ppg. Both rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency, as the Hornets are 2nd and the Jazz are 10th. The key here is that Utah is a team that wants to slow down the pace of the game. In fact, they come in dead last in the NBA in pace at 93.5 possessions per game. I expect them to look to play even slower than normal here, as this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 nights. Note that Charlotte has played just one team in their first 6 games who ranks in the bottom 10 in pace. That's Miami, who is currently 22nd. That game finished with 188 points and both teams shooting 38% or worse from the field. It's also worth pointing out Utah has played 4 games against teams who rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency. The only one that saw more than 194 points was a game at San Antonio, where the two combined for 197. Utah shot the lights out in that game, hitting 15 3-pointers and shooting 50% from the field. I'll take my chances that doesn't happen here against the Hornets. The other 3 against Top 10 defensive teams saw 186 or fewer points. Take the UNDER! |
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11-08-16 | Suns +7.5 v. Blazers | Top | 121-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Suns + Phoenix is showing some great value here as a big road dog against the Blazers. Phoenix is just 2-5, but are playing much better of late, taking 2 of their last 3 and are 4-2 ATS in their last 6. Coming in off a double-digit loss to the Lakers, I look for a big bounce back performance from the Suns here. It's a spot they have dominated in under head coach Earl Watson, as they are 13-3 ATS under Watson off a loss by 10 or more. This is also a tough spot for the Blazers. Portland just finished up a 3-game road trip and will be home for just one game before heading to Los Angeles to face the Clippers tomorrow. A game they are going to have a tough time not looking ahead to, as they haven't forgot about a ugly 12-point home loss to the Clippers earlier this season. Phoenix has had the Blazers number of late, as they are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The Underdog in this series is also 10-4 ATS in the last 14. A big part of that is the Suns matchup well with Portland, as the Blazers are a very guard-oriented team. Phoenix has 3 really good guards of their own in Bledsoe, Knight and Boooker. Keep in mind Lillard is coming in a bit banged up, as he's dealing with nagging injuries to both his ankle and thumb. Take Phoenix! |
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11-04-16 | Warriors v. Lakers +11 | Top | 97-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
5* NBA Situational No Limit Top Play on Lakers + I really like the value here with the Lakers as a double-digit home dog. This is a massive letdown spot for the Warriors, who just played at home last night against the Thunder. A game they have had circled since the schedule was released, as it was Durant's first game against his old team after leaving OKC for Golden State in the offseason. You could see the emotion they invested in that game and it's going to be really hard for them to bring anywhere close to that intensity on the road against a Lakers team that isn't perceived to be any good. The thing is, this Lakers team is better than they get credit for. They play really hard and have some nice young talent that can score the basketball. They also come in with some confidence, after closing out their 4-game road trip with a 123-116 win at Atlanta, who had previously been unbeaten. We also find a great system in play going against the Warriors in this spot. Road favorites of 10 or more playing on back-to-back days are just 6-25 (19%) against the spread since 1996 in the 1st half the season. Keep in mind this is also Golden State's 3rd game in 4 nights. Take Los Angeles! |
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11-03-16 | Kings +1.5 v. Magic | Top | 94-102 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Kings + I like the value here with Sacramento getting points against the Magic. The Kings come into this game at just 2-3, but I've been impressed with what I have seen out of this team. They were right there with the Spurs at home in a 94-102 loss, they fell apart late (outscored by 13 in 4th) in a 95-106 loss at Atlanta and last time out they lost in OT at Miami, where DeMarcus Cousins had fouled out in regulation. I look for this team to come out extremely motivated here and they are the more talented team in this one. Orlando avoided an 0-4 start with a 103-101 win at Philadelphia, but they were very fortunate to get that win. The Magic trailed by 14 at the half and were down by as many as 18. Considering they were 0-3 going into that game and had no reason to overlook the 76ers, that's not a good sign, because Philadelphia is the worst team in the league right now. Great system in play backing the Kings here. Teams off a road loss (Kings) with a line of +3 to -3 against an opponent off a road win by 3 points or less (Magic) are 23-4 (85%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Take Sacramento! |
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11-02-16 | Bulls v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 100-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Celtics - I really like the value we are getting with Boston as a small home favorite against the Bulls. Chicago is getting a lot of love after their 3-0 start both SU and ATS, which includes a 105-99 win at home against the Celtics in their opener. The thing to keep in mind with that win over Boston, is the Celtics were playing on no rest. The Bulls blitzed them in the 1st quarter and they just were never able to recover, though they did come back and take the lead after falling behind by 15 points. While I think Chicago is better than people thought coming in, I don't see them going on the road here and beating the Celtics, especially given they just played last week and beat them. Revenge isn't huge in the NBA, but it comes into play a lot more when teams play each other in a short period of time. The Bulls are just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games after playing a game on the road, while the Celtics are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Boston! |
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10-31-16 | Nuggets v. Raptors -7 | Top | 102-105 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Raptors - I like the value here with Toronto in a big bounce back spot after losing last time out at home against the Cavaliers. Prior to that they beat up on the Pistons at home, winning by 18 as a 6-point home favorite. This will now be the Raptors 3rd straight at home to start the season, while Denver hits the road for the second time in their first three. The Nuggets were able to win and cover on the road at New Orleans in their opener, but that's not a win to get excited about. The Pelicans are a one man show with Anthony Davis. Denver followed that up by losing at home to Blazers and now get their biggest test to date against a Raptors team that is one of the elite forces in the Eastern Conference. The big key here is that Toronto has a huge home court edge the Raptors went 32-9 at home last year and are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a winning road record. Denver hasn't been sharing the ball all that well. The Nuggets are 25th with 18.5 assists/game and are a mere 3-12 ATS over the last 3 seasons after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists. Take Toronto! |
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10-28-16 | Suns +9.5 v. Thunder | Top | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Suns + We are getting some exceptional value here with Phoenix catching almost double-digits against the Thunder. Russell Westbrook is going to put up ridiculous numbers this season, but I'm not buying OKC being a real threat in the Western Conference. The Thunder were far from impressive in their opener against a bad 76ers team. They won the game 103-97, but just as easily could have lost. They had to outscore Philadelphia 34-22 in the 4th just to secure the win. One of things that made a number of these OKC role players so good last year is because opposing teams had to pay so much attention to Westbrook and Durant that they often got left wide open. That's not going to be the case this year and we saw the new addition of Oladipo struggle in his Thunder debut, going just 4 of 16 from the field. The Thunder also don't have a real 3-point threat on this team and that makes it that much easier to defend them. We are getting great value here on Phoenix because of their lackluster performance at home against the Kings in the opener. The Suns lost 94-113 as a 3-point home favorite. For whatever reason Phoenix's starters didn't bring a lot of energy to that game. I look for a big bounce back effort here, as this team is a lot more talented than people think. Also, Sacramento is better than people think. They just gave the Spurs all they could handle at home last night. Take Phoenix! |
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10-26-16 | Wolves +2 v. Grizzlies | Top | 98-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Week on Wolves + I'm big on Minnesota this season and while their young nucleus is a part of it, I think the biggest thing that makes them dangerous is the addition of head coach Tom Thibodeau. In his time with Chicago, the Bulls consistently overachieved during the regular season. A big part of that is he doesn't let teams take nights off defensively and that's clearly an area where the Timberwolves needed to improve. Last year Minnesota ranked 23rd, giving up 106.0 ppg. It didn't take long for him to get them playing harder on that side of the ball. In the Timberwolves 7 preseason games, they only allowed more than 100 points once. If they are getting after it defensively when games don't matter, hard to think they aren't going to do the same once they start to count for real. That defense should be able to dominate the Grizzlies depleted lineup in the season opener. Memphis is without their prized free agent signing Chandler Parsons and backup center Brandon Wright. Tony Allen is also questionable with a knee injury. Keep in mind they also lost some key pieces from last year in Matt Barnes, Lance Stephenson and Mario Chalmers. This is also a team that was horrible down the stretch, going 3-14 over their final 17 games. Take Minnesota! |
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10-25-16 | Jazz v. Blazers -5.5 | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA Opening Night No Limit Top Play on Blazers - The Jazz are getting a ton of love from oddsmakers going into this season and I believe we are seeing some of that hype reflected in this line, as it's going to be hard for Utah to go into Portland and get a win given the injuries they are dealing with. Utah is minus their best player in Gordon Hayward and top reserve from last year in Alec Burks. They could also be missing arguably their next play player in Derrick Favors, who is questionable with a knee injury. They also have Rodney Hood playing at less than 100%. Another big factor here is how much better these two teams play at home compared to on the road. Last season the Blazers went 28-13 at home and just 16-25 on the road. It was a similar story for the Jazz, who were 24-17 at home compared to 16-25 on the road. I know the preseason doesn't mean a lot, but it is worth noting that these two teams played twice and the Blazers won both games. Portland's starters were the more impressive unit when on the floor and MVP darkhorse Damian Lillard did as he pleased in both games, scoring 43 points on 17-28 shooting in 51 minutes. I just don't think Utah is going to be able to keep pace offensively in this one. Take Portland! |
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06-19-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 93-89 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Warriors - As bad as the Warriors have looked in the last two games, my money is on Golden State to take care of business at home in Game 7 tonight. The home team has gone an impressive 15-3 in Game 7 of the NBA Finals and lets not forget there has never been a team that has come back from a 3-1 deficit. The last time a road team won Game 7 was 1978 and the last time the Warriors lost 3 straight was back in November of 2013. Playing at home will be the difference and I look for Curry and Thompson to be the difference in this one. There's no denying that James is playing out of his mind right now, but he's going to need some help. Cleveland needed every bit of Irving's 41 points in Game 5 and that was with the Warriors playing without Green. Cavaliers are a mere 3-13 ATS in their last 16 after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points, while the Warriors are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 when revenging a road loss. Take Golden State! |
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06-16-16 | Warriors +2 v. Cavs | Top | 101-115 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Warriors + It took the greatest NBA Finals performance from 2 teammates to extend this series, as LeBron James and Kyrie Irving both put up 41 points. The two simply couldn't miss, as they combined to shoot 33 of 54 (61%) from the field. James had a rare game where he caught fire from the outside, something I'm confident won't carry over. The thing you have to keep in mind, is those performances game with Draymond Green sidelined, arguably the Warriors most important player, especially when it comes to their versatility on the defense end. He's also a big part of the offense. I believe his return is going to be the difference. Let's not forget the Cavaliers two wins so far in the series have come with the Warriors not showing up to play in Game 3 and with Green sidelined. The Warriors don't lose often and have showed a great resilience off a bad game the previous time out. They closed out the Cavaliers in Cleveland last year and I fully expect them to do the same tonight. Take Golden State! |
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06-13-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 112-97 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Warriors - Even with Green sideline for Game 5, I'm still riding the Warriors to not only clinch the series, but to do by more than the number listed here. In fact, I think we are actually getting some value because of Green's absence, as the line has dropped by 2.5 points since it opened at 8. The Warriors are going to rally around the fact that Green was suspended, as many feel it was James who instigated the Flagrant foul. Green's absence will be felt on the defensive end, but the Warriors are a deep team and are going to have no problem scoring offensively. Cleveland on the other hand, is not the same team on the road. They aren't near as efficient offensively and don't play with the same intensity on the defensive end. That's evident by the two blowouts in games 1 & 2, where the Cavaliers shot just 38.1% and 35.4% from the field, while letting the Warriors connect on 49.4% and 54.3%. Take Golden State! |
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06-10-16 | Warriors +2 v. Cavs | Top | 108-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Warriors + As expected Golden State came out flat in Game 3 and while I didn't see a 30-point loss coming, the margin really doesn't matter. The Warriors simply didn't come to play and their star players didn't come close to performing to their potential. It's amazing what one loss can do, as the public is now on the Cavaliers in Game 4 after wanting nothing to do with them after those two losses in Golden State. As good as Cleveland has played at home, they should not be favorite against the Warriors in this spot. We are going to see a pissed off and highly motivated Golden State team take the floor tonight and I just don't believe the Cavs have the offensive firepower to hang with the Warriors when they are at their best. I expect this to be a close game throughout, but I look for Golden State to pull away in the 4th quarter. Keep in mind that the Warriors have struggled in Game 3's in every round. They lost Game 3 last year at Cleveland and came back and won Game 4 by 21 points. Warriors are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 when revenging a loss and 22-8 in their last 30 when revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points. Take Golden State! |
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06-08-16 | Warriors v. Cavs +1.5 | Top | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Vegas Insider Top Play on Cavs + I was on the wrong end with the Cavaliers in both Game 1 and Game 2, but I'm sticking with Cleveland as the series shifts to their house for Game 3. The Cavaliers aren't going to win this series, but they are a better team than what we have seen so far. James isn't going to let this team fall behind 0-3 in the series and the Warriors are going to struggle to match the intensity that Cleveland is going to bring to this game. Offense has been the big problem for the Cavaliers so far in the series. The role players have not contributed near the level needed. Golden State on the other hand has got tremendous play from their role players. Role players always seem to play better at home and I believe that's going to be the difference in Game 3. Cavs are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 home games revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after allowing 100+ points in 2 straight games and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games at home. Take Cleveland! |
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06-05-16 | Cavs +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 77-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Cavs + Cleveland is worth a look here in Game 2. Despite losing Game 1 by 15-points, there were a lot of positives to take away for the Cavaliers. Cleveland didn't shoot the ball well at all. They were 38% from the field overall and just 33% from long distance. They also got nothing from their role players, as James, Love and Irving combined for 66 of the teams 89 points. Defensively the Cavaliers allowed the Warriors to shoot 49.4% from the field, but were able to hold both Thompson and Curry in check, as the two combined for just 20 points on 8 of 27 shooting. The role players for Golden State all played well. Cleveland is clearly going to make the others beat them and I have a hard time seeing those not named Curry and Thompson combining for 84 points in consecutive games. As bad as things went for Cleveland, they actually had a lead in the 3rd quarter. James isn't going to let his team lose by double-digits in back-to-back games. Keep in mind the Warriors won Game 1 last year, only to lose Game 2 as a 7.5-point favorite. Take Cleveland! |
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06-02-16 | Cavs +6 v. Warriors | Top | 89-104 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Cavs + Golden State needed a lot of breaks to go their way to escape the Western Conference Finals against the Thunder. I don't know that they are going to be so fortunate in the NBA Finals against the Cavaliers. Either way, I have to give the edge to Cleveland in Game 1. The Cavaliers had the much easier path to the Finals and are the more rested team. Cleveland also has serious revenge on their minds after losing to Golden State in last year's Finals. At the same time, it's going to be tough for Golden State to match the intensity of the Cavaliers after that grueling 7-game series against the Thunder. This year LeBron has a legit supporting cast around him. Unlike OKC, which turned to hero ball with Durant and Westbrook, Cleveland is going to share the basketball and make the Warriors defense work on every possession. They are also going to be able to close out games when they have the lead in the 4th quarter. I just feel this is too many points for Cleveland to be catching in a game they have a great shot at winning. Take the Cavaliers! |
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05-30-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7 | Top | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Warriors - The Warriors have all the momentum and I look for them come out and lay it on the Thunder in Game 7 at home. Deep down OKC knows they blew their chance at winning this series with the late 4th quarter collapse at home in Game 6. The home team has such an advantage in Game 7 and even more so when you factor how good the Warriors are at Oracle. Golden State has made a great adjustment that couple of games, going big to keep the Thunder from dominating the board. They are also doing a great job defensively on Durant and Westbrook. The two are scoring a decent amount, but are taking a lot of shots. The pressure of Game 7 is only going to make these two force up more shots, as they just don't trust their role players enough in big situations. Warriors are 21-9 in their last 30 home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games overall. Take Golden State! |
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05-28-16 | Warriors +2.5 v. Thunder | Top | 108-101 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Warriors + I know the Thunder owned Golden State at home in both Game 3 and 4, but like we saw in the Cavs/Raptors series, that doesn't mean OKC is going to dominate Game 6 at home. The Warriors answered with their backs against the wall in Game 5 on their home floor and I look for them to carry over that momentum to Game 6. All of the pressure is on the Thunder to win this game. They know if they lose this one, their chances of winning Game 7 on the road are slim. At the same time, the Warriors are going to be better prepared mentally this time around for the atmosphere they will face in OKC. I still think the Thunder are too dependent on Westbrook and Durant and when things get tough like they will be in Game 6, they tend to worry more about each other and the rest of the players get left out of the offense. It's also worth noting we are getting some value here with this line. Golden State was favored in both of the previous road games in this series and are now catching 2.5-points. This team won at OKC earlier this season and will do so again tonight. Take the Warriors! |
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05-27-16 | Cavs -6 v. Raptors | Top | 113-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Cavaliers - As expected, the Cleveland returned home and laid an absolute beating on the Raptors in Game 5. While it won't be as easy on the road in Game 6, I'm confident the Cavaliers will go into Toronto and finish off the series. Cleveland didn't give the Raptors the respect they deserved in Games 3 and 4 in Toronto, but they aren't going to make that same mistake here. All the confidence that the Raptors got in those two wins is completely gone after what happened in Game 5. The Cavaliers are simply the better team and as long as they come out with that killer instinct, Toronto has no chance of winning or keeping it close. Raptors are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 85 points or less in their previous game and home dogs revenging a loss where they scored 85 or less against an opponent off a home win by 20+ points are just 46-83 ATS since 1996. Take Cleveland! |
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05-26-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Warriors - It's hard to believe that the series is headed back to Golden State with the Warriors trailing 3-1, but I'm not about to give up on the Warriors just yet. After losing Game 1 at home and facing a must win in Game 2, Golden State laid a 27-point beating on the Thunder. With their season on the line, and the Thunder knowing they get Game 6 at home, I look for the Warriors to dominate Game 5. It's just going to be near impossible for OKC to come out and match the intensity of Golden State in this one. The Warriors should also be able to get their offense going at home. Warriors are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 when revenging an upset loss as favorite and 31-15 ATS in their last 46 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Golden State! |
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05-24-16 | Warriors -1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 94-118 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Warriors - As good as OKC looked in Game 3 at home, I think the value here is with the Warriors as a small road favorite in Game 4. Down 1-2, Golden State really can't afford to lose this game and I believe this team will come out looking more like the team that dominated Game 2. The Warriors simply didn't bring the defensive intensity in Game 3 and were just unable to recover from the haymaker the Thunder landed in the 2nd quarter. Oklahoma City also caught fire on the offensive end, shooting 50% from the field. I look for Golden State's defense to be the difference in this one, as Curry, Thompson and Green will deliver enough offensively to secure the win. Thunder are just 9-18 in their last 27 after scoring 60+ points at the half of their previous game, while the Warriors are 19-6 in their last 25 off loss by 10 or more as a road favorite. Take Golden State! |
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05-23-16 | Cavs -6 v. Raptors | Top | 99-105 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Cavs - The Cavaliers got embarrassed in Game 3 at Toronto, losing 84-99 for their first loss of the postseason. Not a huge surprise, as Cleveland was due for a letdown and that was a must-win game for the Raptors. Unfortunately for Toronto I don't see that carrying over to Game 4. Cleveland is going to come out with a chip on their shoulder after how they played on Saturday and should have no problem winning here by more than 6-points. The Cavaliers won the first two games in the series by a combined 50 points. There's simply too big a gap between these two teams, as the Cavs are clearly the best the East has to offer. Raptors are just 1-6 in their last 7 after a SU win and 0-4 in their last 4 off a cover. Cleveland is 4-1 in their last 5 after failing to cover their previous game and have not failed to cover in back-to-back games in the playoffs this season. Take the Cavaliers! |
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05-22-16 | Warriors v. Thunder +3.5 | Top | 105-133 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Thunder + Golden State bounced back in a big way to take Game 2 after blowing a double-digit halftime lead in Game 1. The public is going to be on the Warriors at this line, but I think the value here is with OKC. The Thunder are a dominant home team and have proven they can not only hang with Golden State but are capable of beating them. I look for an all out effort here from the Thunder in Game 3, as they know they have to keep home court if they want any chance of winning this series. Oklahoma City is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 when revenging a loss and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss by more than 10 points. Thunder are also 31-10-2 ATS in their last 43 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take OKC! |
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05-21-16 | Cavs v. Raptors +6.5 | Top | 84-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors + It's been about as bad as it could be for Toronto in the first 2 games of this series. While everyone knows this series is all but a formality, I still expect the Raptors to come out and play extremely hard on their home court. I believe this is the one game that Toronto has a better than normal chance of winning. Cleveland is on cruise control and do not feel threatened at all by this team. If there's a game the Cavaliers are going to let their guard down, it's this one. The good news is we don't need Toronto to win the game to cash our ticket. The Raptors just have to keep it respectable, something they are definitely capable of. They have hung with Cleveland early in both games, but Lowry being a non-factor has been too much to overcome. I look for him to at least show up and provide something in Game 3. Let's also not forget the oddsmakers know the betting public wants absolutely nothing to do with Toronto right now. I'm confident they set this line where they like the Raptors chances of covering. Keep in mind after the Cavs won both games at home against the Hawks by double-digits, they were only a 2-point favorite in game 3. Cleveland is just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 off 2 straight wins by 10 or more points and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7. Take Toronto! |
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05-19-16 | Raptors +12 v. Cavs | Top | 89-108 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf Game of the Month on Raptors + Toronto was no match for Cleveland in Game 1 and I was all over the Cavaliers laying the big number in the series opener. Now I'm banking not he Raptors to bounce back in a big way and make a game of it in Game 2. Toronto basically took Game 1 off, as they just didn't have the energy to keep up with the Cavaliers. The Raptors just got done playing a grueling 7-game series agains the Heat, while Cleveland hadn't played in 8 days. Toronto simply can't be as bad offensively as they were in Game 1. The Raptors had just 3 players finish in double-figures with DeRozan leading the way with just 18. Lowry was a complete non factor, scoring just 8 points on 4 of 14 shooting, while Carrol only had 2 points. I expect this trio to have a much better showing in Game 2. I also don't expect the Cavaliers to repeat their 55% effort from the field in Game 1. As well as Cleveland has been playing, that's only the second time this postseason they have shot 50% or better. It's also the first time Toronto has allowed an opponent to eclipse that mark in the playoffs. Cleveland has now covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games and are simply overvalued because of it. Keep in mind the Cavaliers are a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 when they come into a game having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7. Toronto is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 off a SU loss and even with the loss in Game 1 are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the Raptors! |
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05-18-16 | Thunder v. Warriors OVER 222 | Top | 91-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Thunder/Warriors OVER Game 1 saw a combined score of just 210 points, easily finishing UNDER the total posted of 225. The books have adjusted for Game 2 by dropping the total down 3-points and I think it's a big mistake. Neither team shot the ball well, as both finished under 45% from the field. Keep in mind in the two previous meetings both teams shot at least 47%. Curry and Thompson combined for 51 points, but Curry was just 9 for 22 from the field. A mark he can easily better in Game 2. As for the Thunder, Westbrook had a monster 3rd quarter, but was just 7 for 21. Durant was even worse at 10 for 30. I'm also confident we aren't going to see another 14 point quarter from the Warriors like we did in the final period of Game 1. Golden State had scored at least 116 points in all 3 of the regular season meetings and would have eclipsed that if it wasn't for the awful showing in the 4th. OVER is 11-2 in the Thunder's last 13 after covering at least 5 of their last 7 and 13-4 in their last 17 after winning 8 or more of their previous 10. Take the OVER! |
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05-16-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 108-102 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Warriors - This might seem like a lot of points for the Warriors to be laying against a Thunder team that just closed out their series against the Spurs with 3 straight wins, including a 113-99 blowout win to clinch a spot in the Western Conference Finals. At the same time, Golden State didn't dominate the Blazers like many expected, especially once Curry returned to action, as they trailed by double-digits in the majority of the games at the half. The key thing to keep in mind is that Portland had the ability to play small and matchup with the Warriors, something I don't think Oklahoma City is capable of doing. At the same time, the Thunder really took advantage of a aging Spurs team, who really struggled when forced to play on more than 1-day of rest. The Thunder aren't going to be able to use that up-tempo in their favor here against the Warriors, who thrive in a fast pace. Let's also not forget Golden State swept the season series 3-0 and won both home games in the season series by at least 8 points. Warriors are 21-9 in their last 30 home games as a favorite of 6.5 to 9 points and 11-4 in their last 15 ATS when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Take Golden State! |
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05-15-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Raptors - I've cashed in on each of the last 4 games in this series after successfully backing Miami in Game 6 at home. This time it's the Raptors who are showing the value, as they have the big advantage playing Game 7 at home. If you have followed the NBA Playoffs over the years, you know that the home team has dominated Game 7. I was actually surprised that the Heat were able to win Game 6 with DeRozan and Lowry combining for 59 points. The exact same amount the duo put up in Toronto's 99-91 win at home in Game 5. The good news is, these two are finally starting to play up to their potential and now the Raptors should get more out of their role players on their home floor. Toronto should also perform better on the defense side of the floor, as they will feed off the energy of the home crowd. The Heat are just 3-13 ATS in their last 19 when they come into a game having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games. Take Toronto! |
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05-13-16 | Raptors v. Heat -4 | Top | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat - I have successfully cashed each of my last 3 picks in this series and I'm confident we will make it 4 for 4 with the Heat tonight. Miami nearly erased an early double-digit deficit in Game 5 and I just don't trust the Raptors in a close out situation. It's a spot that Toronto has not fared well in the past. On the other side, Miami has one of the best closers in the game in Wade and will be playing at home in a do or die situation. The other big positive here is the Raptors finally got a solid performance from both Lowry and DeRozan in the same game. The two combined for 59 points on 20 of 47 shooting. That almost wasn't enough on their home floor and I'm willing to bet the duo doesn't play as well on the road in Game 5. The Heat are 21-12 ATS in their last 33 after playing their previous game as a dog, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 at home and the Raptors are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. Take Miami! |
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05-11-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 91-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors - I really like the Raptors here in Game 5 at home. Toronto shot just 39.3% from the field in Game 4 and took Miami to overtime. Miami on the other hand shot 45% and needed 30 points from Wade to secure the win. I know the Raptors didn't take full advantage of Whiteside's absence in Game 4, but I look for that to change at home. The fact that Lowry and DeRozan were a combined 6 of 28 from the field on the road and the Raptors still almost won the game, tells me that Toronto is the far better team when these two play close to their potential. The loss of Whiteside makes it hard for Miami to get easy looks inside and they aren't a great 3-point shooting team, forcing them to take a lot of contested 2-point jump shots. His absence will be felt even more on the road, as I look for Toronto to win here comfortably. Take the Raptors! |
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05-10-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -7 | Top | 95-91 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs - This might seem like a big number to lay on the Spurs in Game 5, but my money is on San Antonio not only winning the game but doing so in impressive fashion. The Spurs didn't play great in either game at OKC, but still managed to get a split. They now return home, where they have lost twice all season. I know one of those was against the Thunder in Game 2, but I believe that makes even less likely they lose in Game 5. You also have to keep in mind that the Thunder are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. This is also a bit of a letdown spot for OKC, as they were basically in a do or die situation needing to win Game 4 to keep any hope of winning the series alive. Spurs are 30-12 ATS in their last 42 when tied in a playoff series and 19-9 in their last 28 when revenging a home loss. We also see that home teams favored by 7 or more with a series tied 2-2 are 11-4 ATS dating back to 2015. Take San Antonio! |
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05-09-16 | Raptors v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 87-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat - Miami is showing great value here at home in a must-win Game 4. The Heat opened the series with a win in Toronto, but lost in overtime in Game 2 and then dropped the first matchup on their home floor in Game 3. The big news going into Game 4 is both teams will be without their big men inside. Toronto's Jonas Valanciunas is done for the series and Miami's Hassan Whiteside is doubtful with a knee injury. I believe Miami is more equipped to play well without their big men, especially on their home floor. Valanciunas has arguably been the Raptors most consistent player in the postseason and he's certainly played a big role in Toronto's 2-1 series lead. The Raptors were +41 with him on the floor in the first 3 games and -39 when he was on the bench. Motivation is also heavily in Miami's favor here. The Heat absolutely have to win this game, while the Raptors are poised for a letdown after regaining home court. I see a very similar scenario to Game 4 in Toronto's opening series against the Pacers. After losing Game 1 at home, the Raptors won both Game 2 and Game 3 before getting embarrassed by 17 in Game 4 at Indiana. Take Toronto! |
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05-08-16 | Spurs v. Thunder UNDER 198.5 | Top | 97-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs/Thunder UNDER I really like the value we are getting here with the UNDER in Game 4 between the Spurs and Thunder. Both teams are going to come out and lay everything on the line to bring home a victory. San Antonio understands what going up 3-1 means and OKC knows they have to win here and tie it up at 2-2 if they want any chance of advancing to the next round. Each of the last two games in the series have finished below the mark set for this matchup and I believe we are going to see the lowest scoring game of the series tonight. Greg Popovic has now had 3 games to get a feel for what OKC wants to do offensively and I look for the Spurs to make life miserable for the Thunder offensively. At the same time, OKC is more than capable of keeping the Spurs offense in check, which they have shown the last 2 games, holding San Antonio under 43% shooting from the field. UNDER is a perfect 8-0 in the Thunder's last 8 home games when playing only their 4th game in 10 days and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. UNDER is also 14-2 in the Spurs last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record and 5-1 in their last 6 off a cover. It's also worth noting the UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings overall between these two teams in OKC. Take the UNDER! |
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05-07-16 | Raptors +5.5 v. Heat | Top | 95-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Raptors + *Analysis Will Be Posted Shortly* |
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05-06-16 | Spurs -2 v. Thunder | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs - My money is one the Spurs as a small road favorite in Game 3. San Antonio shockingly lost Game 2 at home after embarrassing the Thunder by 32 points in Game 1. Winning on the road at OKC is no easy task for most teams, but I'm confident the Spurs will rebound with one of their best performances after how poorly they played in Game 2. Keep in mind that the Thunder shot 48% from the field, while the Spurs connected on just 42.6% of their attempts and San Antonio still nearly won the game. The Spurs missed a lot of easy shots around the basket early in that game and that's simply not going to happen again. At the same time, the Thunder rely too much on Durant and Westbrook. If either of those two have an off game, this one will get ugly in a hurry. The two combined for 57 in Game 2 and still almost lost. The Spurs are 29-12 ATS in their last 41 when tied in a playoff series, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a loss by 3 points or less and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when revenging a loss as a favorite of 7 o more points. Take San Antonio! |
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05-05-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 92-96 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Month on Raptors - Just like they did in their opening series against the Pacers, I look for Toronto to bounce back from a Game 1 loss at home with a convincing win in Game 2. The Raptors lost 90-100 in Game 1 against Indiana, only to respond with a 98-87 win in Game 2. Toronto has not lost consecutive games in the postseason to this point and I don't expect that to change. This is also a big letdown game for Miami. The Heat pulled off a overtime win in Game 1, getting the split in Toronto that they desperately wanted. Prior to that they laid it all on the line in a Game 7 against the Hornets. We have seen the Heat lay a couple eggs on the road against Charlotte and I'm expecting far from their best effort tonight. Miami is just 10-21 ATS in their last 31 after covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and 11-24 in their last 35 off a road win. The Heat are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games overall. Take Toronto! |
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05-04-16 | Hawks +7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 98-123 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hawks + The Hawks are showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Cavaliers in Game 2 of this Eastern Conference Semifinals matchup. Atlanta fell behind big early in Game 1, but were able to rally to take the lead in the 4th quarter before Cleveland pulled away for a 11-point win. I believe the Hawks figured something out in the 2nd half and will be able to carry that over to Game 2 tonight. We also can count on a max effort here from Atlanta, as they try to avoid going down 0-2 in the series. Cleveland is due for a letdown in the postseason, as they have now won 5 straight after sweeping the Pistons. Hawks are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 when revenging 2 straight losses where they allowed 100+ points, while the Cavaliers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 after a win by 10+ points and 10-19 ATS in their last 29 after 3 or more consecutive wins. Take Atlanta! |
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05-03-16 | Blazers +10.5 v. Warriors | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Blazers + I like the value we are getting with Portland as a double-digit road dog against the Warriors in Game 2. The Blazers failed to cover as a 9.5-point dog in Game 1, losing by 12. Portland looked shell-shocked in the 1st quarter of that game, getting outscored by 20 points (17-37). After the opening quarter the Blazers actually outscored the Warriors by 8 points. With their backs against the wall and Golden State potentially poised for a letdown with the potential return of Steph Curry for Game 3, I look for Portland to give the Warriors all they can handle in Game 2. While it's unlikely the Blazers can pull off the upset, it's not out of the question. Just look at the turnaround the Thunder had in Game 2 at San Antonio after getting embarrassed by 30-points in Game 1. Portland is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after a SU loss by more than 10 points and we have a big time system in play favoring a fade of the Warriors in this spot. Home favorites who have won more than 75% of their games are just 15-41 (27%) ATS when leading in a playoff series against a team with a winning record. Take the Blazers! |
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05-02-16 | Hawks v. Cavs UNDER 200.5 | Top | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Month on Hawks/Cavs UNDER The books have set the bar too high for tonight's total for Game 1 of Eastern Conference semifinals between the Hawks and Cavaliers. Atlanta held the Celtics to just 93.8 ppg in their opening series, while the Cavaliers limited the Pistons to just 95.0 ppg. Not a huge surprise as these were two of the top defensive teams during the regular season. Cleveland finished 4th in points allowed at 98.3 and the Hawks were 6th at 99.2. Both also rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency with Atlanta 2nd and Cleveland 10th. It's also important to note that the Cavs are a team that are capable of playing much better defense than what they showed over an 82-game regular season and the Hawks improved greatly on defense in the 2nd half. These two teams are also very familiar with one another, as they played in last year's Eastern Conference Finals. Cleveland ended up sweeping that series, but the first two games of the series featured 185 and 176 combined points. UNDER is 9-1 in Cavs last 10 when playing 5 or less games in 14 days and 7-0 in the Hawks last 7 road games after covering 2 straight as a favorite. Take the UNDER! |
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05-01-16 | Pacers v. Raptors -5.5 | Top | 84-89 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors - Indiana was able to avoid elimination with a 101-83 win at home in Game 5, but I don't think there fortunes will carry over to Game 7. Home court in Game 7 has proven to be a huge advantage over the years, especially when that team is coming off a loss. Going back to the 2002-03 season, the home team is 15-8 (65.2%) ATS in Game 7 after losing the previous game. It's also worth noting that each time Indiana has managed to pull out a win the Raptors have answered with a victory in the next game. Indiana on the other hand is a mere 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win by more than 10 points. The Pacers are also 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games after 5 straight games where they held their opponent to 42% or worse from the field. Toronto is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100+ points. Take the Raptors! |
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04-30-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -6.5 | Top | 92-124 | Win | 100 | 27 h 8 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Spurs - San Antonio and Oklahoma City both made easy work of their opponents in the first round. The Spurs swept the Grizzlies while the Thunder needed just 5 games to send Dallas packing. I believe that has kept this spread low enough that it's worth laying the points with San Antonio at home. The Spurs finished a dominant 40-1 on their home floor during the regular season and added two more victories against Memphis. Both coming via huge blowouts. San Antonio beat the Grizzlies by 32 in Game 1 and 26 in Game 2. The Spurs understand the importance of getting a series started off with a win and protecting their home court advantage and I look for them to do just that against the Thunder. Oklahoma City was able to get away with their style of play against the Mavericks, relying almost exclusively on Durant and Westbrook to carry the load offensively. That's not going to work against the Spurs, who are playing exceptional on the defensive side of the ball. San Antonio also has the weapons to pick apart the Thunder's defense. I believe it will take a near perfect performance from OKC's two stars just to keep this game close. Thunder are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games after playing 5 straight games as a favorite and are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games in Game 1 of a playoff series as a dog. Spurs are 14-5 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points and 19-5 ATS in their last 24 during Game 1 of a playoff series after closing out their previous series with 2 or more consecutive wins. Take San Antonio! |
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04-29-16 | Raptors v. Pacers UNDER 194 | Top | 83-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors/Pacers UNDER These two teams will be facing off for the sixth time in the last 14 days and needless to say they are very familiar with what each other at this point. Each of the first 4 games finished UNDER the total, including both games in Indiana, but the two did go over the mark in Game 5 at Toronto. I believe that has created some value here on the UNDER. This is a crucial game for both teams. Indiana is facing elimination on their home floor, while Toronto wants to avoid another playoff collapse. Keep in mind two years ago they had a 3-2 lead against the Nets and proceeded to lose Game 6 in Brooklyn and Game 7 at home. Even with a game to play with, Toronto is going to come out like they are facing elimination as well. Both teams are going to lay everything they have on the defensive side of the ball. UNDER is 13-4 in the Pacers last 17 home games after covering the spread in their last contest and 10-1 in their last 11 after scoring 60 or more points in the 1st half of their previous game. UNDER is also 5-0 in the Raptors last 5 after scoring 100+ in their previous game and 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take the UNDER! |
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04-28-16 | Hawks -2 v. Celtics | Top | 104-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Hawks - The home team has won all 5 games to this point, but I expect that trend to come to an end in Game 6 at Boston. Atlanta laid it on the Celtics in a 110-83 home win in Game 5 and the Hawks can smell blood with a 3-2 series lead. Atlanta has clearly been the more impressive team to this point. They have had at least a 15 point lead in 4 of the 5 games, including a 16-point lead in Game 4 at Boston, which they ended up losing in overtime. The key here is the health of the Celtics, who are without Avery Bradley, arguably their best two-way player. Now they have to lay with a less than 100% Isaiah Thomas, who re-aggravated a sprained left ankle in the 4th quarter of Game 4. Home underdogs that are revenging a loss where they scored less than 85 points against an opponent off a win by 20 or more are just 46-82 (36%) ATS since 1996. Hawks as a team are 33-19 ATS in their last 52 off a home win by 10 or more points and the Celtics are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games after playing 2 straight as a dog. Take Atlanta! |
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04-27-16 | Hornets v. Heat -6 | Top | 90-88 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat - The Heat and Hornets head to Game 5 in Miami with the series tied 2-2. The Hornets made this a series by taking both Games 3 and 4 at home, but are now headed back to Miami where they got destroyed in the first two games of the series. The Heat won 123-91 in Game 1 and 115-103 in Game 2. Just watching this series you can see just how much better both of these teams play on their home floor. The fact that Miami is a bigger favorite in Game 5 than they were in either Game 1 or Game 2 after losing the last two really speaks volumes to that. This is also a big letdown spot for Hornets, as they put everything they had on the line at home to even up the series. I see this is a very similar scenario to last night's Game 5 between the Hawks and Celtics. Miami is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games after a loss by 6 points or less, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games overall and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the Heat! |
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04-26-16 | Celtics v. Hawks -7 | Top | 83-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf Playoffs Game of the Month on Hawks - The home team has won all 4 meetings in the series to this point and I don't expect that trend to come to an end in Game 5 in Atlanta on Tuesday. While the series is tied 2-2, I've been much more impressed with the Hawks to this point. In both games in Atlanta, the Hawks jumped out early leads. After letting Boston back in Game 1, they kept their foot on the gas in Game 2 with a 17-point victory. Another key factor to keep in mind is that the Celtics used up a lot of energy in winning both of those games at home and are now primed for a letdown in Game 5. Let's also not forget that Boston is still without a huge piece to the puzzle in Avery Bradley. It's also important to note that while Atlanta lost both games on the road, they could have easily won either of those games. The big problem for them was their 3-point shooting. They were just 25% from long distance in Game 3 and 28% in Game 4. I look for the outside shot to fall at a much higher frequency at home. Boston is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after 5 straight games holding their opponents to 42% or worse from the field and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Atlanta on the other hand is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6. Take the Hawks! |
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04-25-16 | Mavs +14.5 v. Thunder | Top | 104-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Mavericks + Dallas is showing great value here as a near 15-point underdog in Game 5 against the Thunder. While it's unlikely the Mavericks will pull off another huge upset in OKC (won 85-84 as 14-point dog in Game 2), I expect them to keep this game much closer than the number listed. Oklahoma City just won both games in Dallas to take a commanding 3-1 series lead and could let their guard down here. At the same time, we can expect an all out effort from the Mavericks, as they try to fight off elimination. Getting 2-days off prior to this game is huge for Dallas, who lacks depth with all their injuries and it also gives head coach Rick Carlisle time to make some adjustments, something he's well known for in the postseason. Mavericks are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games after playing 2 straight as a home dog, 13-5 ATS in their last 18 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Dallas! |
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04-24-16 | Hawks v. Celtics UNDER 204.5 | Top | 95-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Hawks/Celtics UNDER I really like the value here with the total in Game 4 between the Hawks and Celtics. These two teams combined for 214 points in Game 3, easily eclipsing the total of 203.5. There's a couple of factors that led to the high-scoring affair. Boston switched up their style of play and went with a smaller lineup, which I believe caught the Hawks off guard. Atlanta was also in a prime letdown spot in terms of defensive intensity with a 2-0 series lead. I look for the Hawks to make the adjustments to the Celtics new look and to come out with a lot more motivated than what we saw in Game 3. Atlanta isn't going to let Isaiah Thomas go off for 40+ points in back-to-back games. Let's not forget that the Hawks held Boston to just 72 points in the previous game and held them under 40% shooting in both Game 1 and Game 2. UNDER is 19-6 in the Hawks last 25 when leading in a playoff series, 11-4 in their last 15 games in the first round of the playoffs and 5-0 in their last 5 after failing to cover the spread last time out. UNDER is also 10-1 in the Celtics last 11 after covering their previous game and 10-3 in their last 13 after scoring 100+ points. Take the UNDER! |
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04-23-16 | Heat v. Hornets -2 | Top | 80-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hornets - The Hornets season is on the line when they take on the Heat in Game 3 at home. Charlotte lost both games in Miami and simply can't afford to fall behind 0-3 in the series. The Heat couldn't have played any better than they did in the first two games of the series at home, but were not nearly as strong on the road during the regular season. Charlotte on the other hand went a very respectable 30-11 at home. Miami is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after winning 4 of their previous 5 games and 9-20 in their last 29 after covering the spread in 2 straight. The Hornets are 18-9 ATS in their last 27 revenging a road loss, and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 following a SU loss by more than 10 points. Take Charlotte -2! |
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04-21-16 | Raptors -1 v. Pacers | Top | 101-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors - The Raptors are showing great value here as at basically a pick'em on the road in Game 3 of their series against the Pacers. Indiana is getting a lot of respect for winning Game 1 on the road by 10-points, but I just don't see the Pacers making this a series going forward. Toronto is going to come out with a huge sense of urgency to get back home court advantage. Winning on the road wasn't a problem for the Raptors during the regular season. Toronto went 24-17 away from home, which was nearly as good as the Pacers home record of 26-15. In the first two games Indiana has got a near flawless performance from Paul George, while the Raptors haven't got near the production they expect from their backcourt duo of DeRozan and Lowry. I look for those two to breakout of their slump and Toronto to continue to their dominance inside. The Raptors have outscored the Pacers 88-56 in the paint and out rebounded them 96-71. Take Toronto! |
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04-18-16 | Pacers v. Raptors -7 | Top | 87-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors - The key in the NBA playoffs is to not overreact to what happened in the previous game. Toronto lost at home in Game 1 by double-digits (90-100) as a 7-point favorite, which is going to have a lot of people looking to take Indiana in Game 2. I'm looking the other direction here, as the Raptors are going lay it all on the line to avoid falling behind 0-2 in the series. It's also important to note that this play falls in a profitable NBA playoffs zig-zag system, which has us backing home teams off a home loss, who won more than 60% of their games and lost by more than 3-points in the previous matchups. Teams in this spot who are favored by 6 to 9 points are 47-26-2 (64.4%) ATS in the playoffs dating back to 2002. We also see that the Pacers are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 off a upset win as a road dog, while the Raptors are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games when playing against a team with a winning record. Take Toronto! |