Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-25-15 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 210 | Top | 83-89 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Warriors NBA Christmas Day Vegas Insider on UNDER These Christmas Day games have become quite the tradition and the NBA does their best to schedule quality games between some of the better teams in the league. With all other sports taking a back seat on Christmas, these games get a lot of public attention and thus the oddsmakers almost always inflate the totals knowing how much the public loves to back the over. At the same time, the players know these are some of the most watched games of the regular season and going up against a quality opponent in the spotlight of a nationally televised game almost always brings out their best performance. Whenever a team is motivated that leads to a lot of intensity on the defensive side of the floor. I think it's about as close as we get to a playoff type atmosphere during the regular season. All of this points heavily in the direction of the UNDER and this theory has been well proven over the years. Dating back to 2005, games played on Christmas Day have gone UNDER the total at a 67.5% clip (27-13-1). Taking this a step further, if you just look at non-conference games, the UNDER in these matchups has gone 13-3 (81%). As you have probably guessed by now, this is the main reasoning behind taking the UNDER in this game. It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 8-3-1 in the Cavs last 12 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also 6-1 in Cleveland's last 7 off a SU, 11-4 in the Warriors last 15 against the Central Division, and 15-7-2 in their last 24 home games. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
12-23-15 | Mavs v. Nets UNDER 199 | Top | 119-118 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
5* NBA Total of the Month on Mavs/Nets UNDER I'm expecting a very low-scoring game here between the Mavericks and Nets tonight. Dallas won't be looking to push the pace offensively playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, especially after using up a ton energy last night at Toronto trying to rally from a 13-point halftime deficit. The Mavericks also haven't been playing great offensively of late, as they have scored 99 or less in 3 straight. It doesn't figure to get any better against the Nets, as Dallas lost starting point guard Deron Williams to a hamstring injury against the Raptors. They also aren't expected to have backup point guard Devin Harris, leaving them thin at the point and thus must play at a slower pace. The Nets are coming off a 105-102 win at Chicago, but this is a team that is not great offensively. Brooklyn had scored 97 or less in each of their previous 4 and have only cracked the century mark 4 time sin their last 14 games. UNDER is 36-17 in the Mavericks last 53 games against a bad team like the Nets, who have won fewer than 40% of their games. UNDER is also 10-4 in Dallas' last 14 against an opponent coming off a 100-point game and 4-0 in the Nets last 4 games after scoring 100 or more. UNDER is also 10-3 in Brooklyn's last 13 against the Western Conference and 4-1 in their last 5 at home. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
12-22-15 | Pistons v. Heat UNDER 194.5 | Top | 93-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf Total of the Month on UNDER The books have set the total too high for tonight's showdown between the Pistons and Heat, which isn't a big surprise given Detroit has played in 3 straight games where 200+ points were scored, including a 4-overtime thriller at Chicago in their last game where 191 combined points were scored. Miami also comes in off a high-scoring game, as they defeated the Blazers 116-109 at home. The key here is that this game is being played in Miami and the Heat should be able to dictate the tempo. Miami is only scoring 96.8 ppg on the season and allowing just 94.9 ppg. Detroit only averages 99.0 ppg on the road and should come out with a lot of energy on defense after a 3-day break. These two teams played earlier this season in Detroit and combined for just 185 points and that was with the Pistons exploding for 60 points in the 1st half. It's also worth noting that Detroit won that first meeting 104-81, as the UNDER is 9-1 in the Heat's last 10 when revenging a road loss and 7-0 in Miami's last 7 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points. UNDER is also 11-0 in Miami's last 11 after allowing 105 or more points in 2 straight games, 16-4 in Detroit's last 20 road games after playing their last game as a road dog and 9-1 in their last 10 road games when playing 4 or less gams in 10 days. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
12-19-15 | Drake +16 v. Iowa | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
5* NCAAB No Limit Game of the Month on Drake + I really like the value we are getting with the Bulldogs in a in-state matchup that will be played on a neutral court. While Drake is just 4-6 overall, they have been competitive in almost every game. Out of their 6 defeats, 4 have come by 8-points or less and they haven't lost one by more than the number listed here. Iowa is a good team, but I think this is a tough spot for the Hawkeyes. This will be their first game since losing 82-83 at Iowa State on 12/10, a game where they blew a 20-point lead and had a major collapse in the final minutes. Those kind of losses are difficult to come back from and adding to this is there figures to be some rust with the long lay off off. Keep in mind that while Iowa is 13-3 SU in the last 16 meetings against Drake, the Bulldogs have gone 10-5-1 ATS in these matchups. Iowa is also a team that typically underperforms in neutral site games, as they are just 3-11 in their last 14 on a neutral site. Hawkeyes are also just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 away from home after making 10 or more 3-pointers in 2 straight games. The Bulldogs on the other hand are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog and 33-14 ATS in their last 47 off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog. Take Drake! |
|||||||
12-18-15 | Hawks v. Celtics -4 | Top | 109-101 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
5* Hawks/Celtics NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Celtics - I think we are seeing some great value here on Boston as a relatively small home favorite against the Hawks. The Celtics come into this game having lost back-to-back games, but haven't dropped 3 straight since the opening week of the season. Keep in mind Boston's two losses came at home against the red-hot Cavaliers and then at Detroit on no rest. Expect to see a highly motivated Celtics team take the floor tonight. Atlanta comes into this game off a 21-pont blowout win at home against the 76ers, which is definitely playing into this small line. However, the Hawks are a team that has not been playing well and shouldn't get any credit for beating a horrible Philadelphia team. Even with the win Atlanta is just 7-10 in their last 17 games. The home team has had a decisive edge in this series. Boston won at home 106-93 on 11/13 and Atlanta returned the favor with a 121-97 win at home on 11/24. The home team has now won 6 of the last 7 overall. The Celtics are 40-27 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons and are a perfect 2-0 ATS off a road loss by 3-points or less. Atlanta is just 1-3 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 off a S& win, 0-2 ATS off a home win where they scored 110 or more points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a winning record. Take Boston! |
|||||||
12-16-15 | Hornets v. Magic UNDER 196.5 | Top | 98-113 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA Southeast Total of the Month on Hornets/Magic UNDER The books have set this total too high for this division matchup. Both of these teams come into this game playing extremely well on the defensive end. Charlotte is allowing just 91.6 ppg over their last 5 and Orlando is giving up just 95.4 ppg in their last 5. Just 1.5 games separate these two teams in the Southeast and that should have both playing with a lot of energy on the defensive side of the ball. We have seen several low-scoring games when these two face off against division opponents. Charlotte has seen an average combined score of 188.6 in their 5 division games and the Magic average a combined score of just 191 in division matchups. It's also worth noting that each of the last 3 meetings between these two teams last year saw a combined score of 196 or less with both games in Orlando finishing with 188 or less. UNDER is 12-2-2 in the Hornets last 16 against an opponent who scored 100+ points in their previous games, 11-4 in their last 15 following a SU loss and 6-1 in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference. UNDER is also 4-1 in Orlando's last 5 home games, 5-1-1 in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 7-1 in their last 8 division games. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
12-15-15 | VCU v. Georgia Tech -1.5 | Top | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
5* VCU/Georgia Tech NCAAB Vegas Insider on Georgia Tech - The Yellow Jackets are showing some great value here at basically a pick'em at home against VCU. The Rams come into this contest off a 71-76 loss to Florida State and are now just 1-3 on the road compared to 4-0 at home. Georgia Tech has played their best basketball at home, as the Yellow Jackets are 4-1 and outscoring opponents on their home floor by 16.4 ppg. The Yellow Jackets have really been impressive on the offensive end at home, as they come in averaging 87.4 ppg and are shooting 49.2% from the field at home. VCU only averages 69.2 ppg on the road and are shooting a mere 40.8% away from home. Defensively these two teams are pretty equal, but I would give the slight edge to the Yellow Jackets, as they are holding opponents to 41.9% shooting against them at home, where the Rams are allowing 45.5% on the road. Georgia Tech should also control the glass, as they are outrebounding opponents by 12 rpg, while VCU is only outrebounding opponents by 2 rpg. The Rams are just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 off a SU loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. The Yellow Jackets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Take Georgia Tech! |
|||||||
12-14-15 | Rockets -4 v. Nuggets | Top | 108-114 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
5* Western Conference Game of the Month on Rockets - It might not seem like much, but with a win Houston can move above .500 for the first time this season. I believe it's a big deal for the Rockets, who have put their ugly struggles behind them and started playing up to their potential. Houston is 7-2 over their last 9 games a very profitable 5-1 ATS in their last 6. One of the reasons we are seeing a small line here is the fact that the Denver has already beat the Rockets twice this season. They won 107-98 as a 6.5-point home dog on 11/13 and 105-85 as a 10.5-point road dog on 10/28. That double-revenge works more in the favor of the Rockets than the Nuggets and it's important to note that both of those victories came prior to Houston's recent surge. Denver has historically been a good home team, but that's not the case this season. The Nuggets are just 4-7 at home and were fortunate to win their last home game in a 111-108 overtime win against Minnesota (trailed by 15 at half). Denver is just 3-9 in their last 12 and all 3 wins came by 3-points or less (easily could be riding 12-game losing streak). While the Nuggets haven't played since Friday, they are just 3-14 ATS over the last 2 seasons when playing with 2 days of rest. Denver is also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games and 8-18 in their last 26 as a home dog. Adding to this, we see that favorites revenging 2 losses as a favorite are 133-81 (70%) ATS when coming off a home win since 1996. Take Houston! |
|||||||
12-12-15 | BYU v. Colorado -5 | Top | 83-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Non-Conference Game of the Month on Colorado - Colorado is showing great value here as a 5-point favorite against BYU. The Buffaloes come into this game 7-1 with their only loss come against a very good Iowa State team, which they only lost by 6-points on a neutral site. Colorado is 5-0 at home and are winning at home by an average score of 86.0 to 67.6. BYU comes in with a respectable 6-2 record, but their strong start has been aided by an easy schedule to this point. Their only real test was at Utah and they lost that game 75-83 and it wasn't that close, as they trailed by 23 points at the half. The Cougars also lost their only other true road game at Long Beach State. The Buffaloes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 off 5 or more consecutive wins, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a losing road record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the WCC. BYU on the other hand is just 9-23 ATS in their last 32 road games when they come in having covered 4 of their last 5 games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after leading by 15+ points at the half of their last contest. Take Colorado! |
|||||||
12-11-15 | Wizards v. Pelicans -2.5 | Top | 105-107 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Pelicans - It's been about as bad a start to the season as you could imagine for the Pelicans, who surprised just about everyone when they snuck into the Western Conference playoffs last year. A big reason for New Orleans' struggles has been injuries and that's where the value lies in the Pelicans laying just 2.5-points at home against the Wizards. New Orleans is almost back to full strength. Tyreke Evans and Norris Cole returned recently and they are expected to get back Kendrick Perkins, who has been sidelined since October. While the return of Evans and Cole didn't pay off immediately, the Pelicans did have an impressive 114-108 win at home over the Cavaliers last Friday. While they followed that up with a 93-111 loss to the Celtics, that's the only game New Orleans has played in the last 7 days. The Pelicans are fresh, hungry and extremely motivated. While New Orleans is getting healthy, the Wizards are dealing with numerous injuries right now, most notably in the front court. Nene and Drew Gooden are both expected to be out and Kris Humphries is questionable. Being thin in the front court is not what you want against Anthony Davis and the Pelicans. I look for Davis to dominate this game and let's not forget the Wizards are just 3-7 in their last 10 games. Washington is 11-22 ATS in their last 33 when playing 6 or more games in 10 days, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record. The Pelicans are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games against a team with a winning road record and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games played on Friday night. Take New Orleans! |
|||||||
12-09-15 | Magic v. Suns -4 | Top | 104-107 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
5* Non-Conference Game of the Year on Suns - I think we are getting some exceptional value here on the Suns as a mere 4-point home favorite against the Magic. Phoenix has lost 8 of their last 10 games, but will be taking the floor with a ton of confidence after a thrilling 103-101 win at Chicago last time out, where the Suns outscored the Bulls by 18 points in the 4th quarter for the improbable win. While Phoenix's 2-8 record of their last 10 games is concerning, we can pinpoint their poor play to a brutal schedule, as 9 of their last 11 games have come on the road and one of their home games was against the Warriors. This is an ideal bounce back spot for Phoenix off that big win in Chicago and they are catching the Magic in a horrible spot. Orlando is simply getting too much respect here due to the fact that they have won 6 of their last 7 and are 6-0-1 ATS during this stretch. However, the Magic are primed for a letdown in what will be their 5th straight road game in the last 9 days. Adding to this is the fact that Orlando is playing in the 2nd game of back-to-back set that saw them play last night in the thin air of Denver. They pulled out an ugly 85-74 win, but you could see the signs of fatigue. I believe they have nothing left in the tank and will get blown out by a hungry Suns team tonight. Suns are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 off a road win and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. Orlando on the other hand is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing less than 75 points and 0-1 ATS this season after scoring 85 or less. Take Phoenix! |
|||||||
12-08-15 | Thunder v. Grizzlies UNDER 203 | Top | 125-88 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
5* Western Conference Total of the Month on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER These two teams combined for 236 points in the Grizzlies 122-114 win at home back on Nov. 16 and it's resulted in an inflated total in the rematch. That was only the second time in the last 10 meetings that these two teams combined for more than 200 points. One of the big reasons that we consistently see lower-scoring games between these two teams, is the familiarity they have of one another. This will be the 40th meeting between these two teams since the beginning of the 2010-11 season, which is the most of any two teams in the league during this stretch. While the first meeting saw a lot of offense, I think both defenses come to play this time around. Memphis has held 6 of their last 8 opponents under 100 points and the Thunder have allowed a team to eclipse the century mark just once in their last 6 games. It's also worth noting that both teams come in not shooting the ball well, especially from long distance. The Grizzlies are just 24.9% from the 3-point line in their last 4 games and OKC is only hitting 29.6% in their last 4. UNDER is 13-4 in the Grizzlies last 17 home games off a home win, 17-5 in their last 22 after a close win by 3 points or less and 15-5 in their last 20 with a total set at 200 or more points. The UNDER is also 5-0 in the Thunder's last 5 road games against a team that has won more than 60% of their home games, and 7-0 in their last 7 off a SU win. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
12-04-15 | Cavs v. Pelicans +5 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Pelicans NBA on ESPN Vegas Insider on Pelicans + Cleveland lost 85-97 at home to the Wizards on Tuesday and the perception here is that they are going to bounce back with a win, which has resulted in an inflated line and some great value here with the Pelicans at home in a prime time game on ESPN. The Cavaliers haven't been playing well of late. They are just 5-4 in their last 9 games and each of their last 2 wins have been less than impressive. They won by a final of just 95-90 at Charlotte and 90-88 at Brooklyn. New Orleans comes in having lost 4 straight, but there's reason to be optimistic about this team turning the corner and getting back to playing like they did a year ago when they made the playoffs. The Pelicans recently got back Tyreke Evans and Norris Cole, two big pieces of the offense that can take pressure off Anthony Davis. Look for New Orleans to lay everything they have into this game and I fully expect them to get the win. Cleveland is just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games after playing 2 straight games as a home favorite, while the Pelicans are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 after losing 4 or 5 of their previous 6 and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Take New Orleans! |
|||||||
12-02-15 | Indiana +10 v. Duke | Top | 74-94 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
5* Indiana/Duke Big/Ten ACC Vegas Insider Top Play on Indiana + Even against a top caliber opponent like Indiana, the books are going to shade the line in favor of Duke, especially at home. I absolutely love the value we are getting with the Hoosiers as a double-digit dog against the Blue Devils tonight. Indiana is 5-2, but could just as easily be 7-0. Their two losses, both against quality teams in Wake Forest and UNLV, have come by a combined 7-points. Duke's only played 3 legit opponents this season. They lost to Kentucky 63-74 and barely held on for wins against VCU (79-71) and Georgetown (86-84), failing to cover the spread in all 3. Indiana isn't just capable of covering this spread, but I could see them winning this game outright and ending Duke's 15-year non-conference home winning streak. Part of the reason we are seeing a big number here is the fact that Indiana is just 2-4 ATS in their last 5 lined games. However, that actually sets them up in a very profitable spot, as the Hoosiers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when they come in having failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. It's also worth noting that Duke comes in off a 85-52 win against Utah State and are just 2-5 ATS in they last 7 off a SU win by more than 20 points. Take Indiana! |
|||||||
12-01-15 | Suns v. Nets +3.5 | Top | 91-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf Game of the Month on Nets + Brooklyn is showing great value here as a home dog against the Suns. The Nets have been playing much better basketball since their 0-7 start. While they are just 4-6 since, you have to keep in mind that they have played 7 of their last 10 on the road. They were also competitive in all 6 losses during this stretch and have won all 3 of their home games. Phoenix comes in off a 107-102 win at Toronto on Sunday, but are just 3-4 on the road on the season and just 1-4 over their last 5 overall. Tough spot for the Suns to get motivated after a big road win, especially with them missing a key piece in center Tyson Chandler. Brook Lopez should be able to have his way inside for Brooklyn with Chandler sidelined and that's going to open up everything else. Another key factor here is the Nets have really been getting after it defensively at home. During their current 3-game winning streak at the Barclays Center they are allowing just 90.7 ppg and holding opponents to just 39.4% shooting from the field. Phoenix on the other hand has allowed 100+ in 3 straight and are allowing 106.4 ppg on the road, where opposing teams are shooting just under 47% from the field. The Nets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after covering in their last game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against the Western Conference. Phoenix is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game. Take Brooklyn! |
|||||||
11-25-15 | Charlotte v. Syracuse -15 | Top | 70-83 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Syracuse - Syracuse has opened the season 3-0, but failed to cover last time out against Elon at home, winning by only 11 as a 17-point favorite. I believe that's created some value here, though I don't think it's going to matter. The Orange should have their way against Charlotte and cruise here to a 20+ point win. It's not often you get a common opponent this early in the season, but that's what we have here with both teams having played Elon. I mentioned Syracuse beat them by 11, well the 49ers lost at home to Elon 74-85. That final score is very misleading, as Charlotte trailed in that game by 35-points early in the 2nd half. Syracuse is 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games away from home in the month of November and 21-9 ATS in their last 30 on the road after 3 straight wins by 10 or more points. The Orange are also 13-2 ATS in their last 15 road games against bad defensive teams that are allowing opponents to shoot 45 or better from the field. Adding to this is the fact that favorites off 2 consecutive wins by 10 or more points with 2 or more returning starters than their opponent are 26-5 (84%) ATS in the first 5 games of the season over the last 5 years. Take Syracuse! |
|||||||
11-24-15 | Celtics v. Hawks -3.5 | Top | 97-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
5* Celtics/Hawks NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Hawks - Atlanta comes into this contest off a 97-109 loss at Cleveland, where they failed to cover as a 5.5-point underdog. The Hawks are now just 1-4 in their last 5 SU and 1-6 in their last 7 ATS. I believe this has Atlanta showing excellent value here at home against the Celtics. The Hawks are going to be extremely motivated to get a win after their recent poor play and are well rested with this being just their second game in the last six days. Atlanta will also be out for revenge against the Celtics after a 93-106 loss at Boston back on 11/13. The thing to keep in mind with that game, is the Hawks were a 1-point road favorite, which means they should be around a 7-point home favorite against the Celtics. The Hawks are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 when revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games against a team with a winning road record. We also see a strong system in play. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a same season loss to an opponent that is coming in off a division road loss are 25-6 (81%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Atlanta! |
|||||||
11-20-15 | Rockets v. Grizzlies -4.5 | Top | 84-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month on Grizzlies - The Grizzlies are showing excellent value here against the Rockets at home. Houston was able to snap a 4-game losing streak with a 108-103 home win over the Trail Blazers in their first game after the firing of head coach Kevin McHale. What's getting overlooked is the fact that the Rockets trailed by as many as 17 in the 3rd quarter and needed a 30-foot 3-pointer at the buzzer to force overtime. I just don't think the firing of McHale is going to magically fix the problems that led to the Rockets poor start. I certainly don't like their chances of going on the road and beating a Memphis team that has turned the corner and are playing up to their potential after a slow start. The Grizzlies have won 3 straight and are averaging an impressive 112.3 ppg during this stretch. Their improved play all started when they made the trade to land Mario Chalmers from Miami. When Memphis is playing well, they are extremely difficult to beat at home, which is a big reason why I like them so much tonight. The Grizzlies should be able to score at will against a Rockets defense that is allowing 108.1 ppg. Memphis did an excellent job keeping Harden in check last year, limiting him to just 19.3 ppg in their 4 meetings. Harden had 45 against the Blazers and they barely won, so the Grizzlies should have no problem covering if they continue to limit him like they did a year ago. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are allowing 103 or more points/game against an opponent that scored 110 or more in their last game are just 28-63 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis! |
|||||||
11-19-15 | Iowa -2 v. Marquette | Top | 89-61 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
5* Iowa/Marquette NCAAB Vegas Insider Top Play on Iowa - The Hawkeyes will go on the road to take on a Marquette team that hasn't looked impressive at all in their first two games. The Golden Eagles lost their opener at home against Belmont 80-83 as a 6-point favorite and then barely squeaked by IUPUI 75-71 as a 13.5-point favorite. The same IUPUI team that just lost by 23-points last night at NC State (Wolfpack lost at home earlier this year to William & Mary). Simply put this is not a good Marquette team. They went just 13-19 last year and lost a lot of key pieces from that team. Only 5 scholarship players returned and just 3 who averaged more than 20 minutes a game. Iowa isn't a great team by any means, but are an experienced bunch with 4 starters back from last year. The Hawkeyes have made easy work of their first two opponents, winning by 17 over Gardner Webb and 35 against Coppin State. Iowa played extremely well on the road last year and will not be intimated playing away from home against an inexperienced Golden Eagles team. Marquette is 1-8 over the last 3 seasons when listed as a home dog and are 0-7 ATS during this stretch as a home dog of 6 points or less and 0-7 ATS at home in the month of November. Take Iowa! |
|||||||
11-18-15 | Bulls v. Suns -2.5 | Top | 103-97 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
5* Bulls/Suns ESPN ATS No Brainer on Suns - The Suns are showing some great value here as a small home favorite in Wednesday's nationally televised matchup against the Bulls on ESPN. While both teams come in riding 3-game winning streaks, Phoenix has been the more impressive team during this stretch. Chicago barely escaped with home wins over the Hornets (102-97) and Pacers (96-95), while the Suns have won 3 straight at home by at least 14 points. The key here is that Chicago is a team that is a heavily backed team by the public and it's why we aren't seeing Phoenix as a bigger home favorite in this matchup. I believe this will be a tough spot for the Bulls, who will be making their first trip out west and doing so without starting point guard Derrick Rose. At the same time, the Bulls have a much bigger game on deck against the undefeated Warriors on Friday. Chicago has gone 2-2 on the road, but their 2 wins have come against two of the worst teams in the league in the Nets and 76ers. Their 2 road losses were a 94-98 defeat at Detroit and 105-130 loss at Charlotte. Suns are 5-2 ATS at home this season, 15-4 ATS in their last 19 off a win by 10 or more points and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record. Chicago is 1-5 ATS in last 6 versus a team with a winning record, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 0-10 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game. Take Phoenix! |
|||||||
11-17-15 | Cavs v. Pistons OVER 193 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Pistons NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on OVER I look for the Cavaliers and Pistons to have no problem eclipsing the total set for this one. Cleveland comes in averaging 102.8 ppg and are catching the Pistons in a tough spot. Detroit has had just 1-day off after concluding a lengthy 6-game west coast road trip. The Cavaliers come in on 2 full days of rest and will be able to push the tempo and take advantage of the tired legs of the Pistons. It's also important to note we catch Cleveland coming off a loss, so we know they will be highly motivated to bounce back with a win. The key here is I loo for Detroit to keep pace offensively at home. Cleveland has allowed at least 97 points in 4 of their last 5 and Detroit is averaging a respectable 96.6 ppg. It's also worth noting that each of the final 3 meetings between these two teams last year saw a combined score of 195 or more. OVER is 19-8 in the Pistons last 27 home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, 26-12 in their last 38 as a home dog and 11-2 in their last 13 home games off a road loss by 10 or more points. OVER is 39-17-1 in Cleveland's las 57 when playing with 2 days of rest and 4-1 in last 5 off a game where they failed to cover. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
11-16-15 | Pacers +6 v. Bulls | Top | 95-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
5* NBA Central Division Game of the Month on Pacers + The Pacers are showing some excellent value here as a 6-point road dog against division rival Chicago. Indiana has really come on strong since their 0-3 start, winning 6 of their last 7. They come into this one riding a 3-game winning streak and should have no problem keeping it close against the Bulls. Chicago is 6-3 and have won 2 straight, but they aren't dominating teams. Their only 2 wins by more than 6-points have come against two of the worst teams in the league in the Nets and 76ers. Indiana's only loss during their recent surge is a 4-point defeat at Cleveland. Adding to this is the fact that the Bulls are 1-4 ATS at home, while the Pacers are 3-1 ATS on the road. Indiana is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games in the month of November, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against the Eastern Conference and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when playing with 2 days rest. These trends add up to form a dynamite 27-1 system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana! |
|||||||
11-13-15 | Hornets v. Bulls -6.5 | Top | 97-102 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Bulls - I'm expecting a dominating performance at home from the Bulls tonight against the Hornets. Chicago most lopsided loss of the season came at Charlotte last week in a 105-130 defeat. That loss didn't sit well with the Bulls, as they allowed the Hornets to shoot 51.6% from the field, easily the worst mark they have given up in 2015. Last season the Bulls followed up a 91-101 loss at Charlotte with a 98-86 home win 10 days later, which is what I'm expecting here. Not only will Chicago be out for revenge, but they are going to be motivated off an ugly loss at home to the Timberwolves in their last home game. Their only home defeat of the season. The key here is the Bulls will have the fresher legs, as they come into this game off a 3-day break. Charlotte on the other hand will be playing their 3rd in 4 days and 4th road game in their last 5 overall. Bulls are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 when revenge a road loss of 10 or more points and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take Chicago! |
|||||||
11-11-15 | Pistons v. Kings UNDER 203.5 | Top | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Pistons/Kings UNDER Each of the last 4 meetings between these two teams has finished UNDER the total and given the circumstances I believe that streak continues tonight. Detroit is one of the most improved teams in the league and will be motivated coming off a loss at Golden State last time out. However, I don't see the Pistons playing at a fast pace. Detroit is playing their 4th straight on the road in their West Coast trip and 3rd in the last 4 nights overall. Betting the UNDER with the Kings might not seem like a wise move, given Sacramento is allowing 110.6 ppg and opposing teams are shooting 49.3% from the field. The key here is the Kings held a players only meeting on Tuesday, which I believe is going to result in max effort here defensively, as they try to put an end to a 6-game losing streak on their home floor. One thing to keep in mind with Sacramento's poor defensive start, is 6 of their first 8 games have come against some strong offensive teams in the Clippers (twice), Suns, Rockets, Warriors and Spurs. Their 8 opponents as a whole combine to average 103.5 ppg. Detroit is only scoring 99.0 ppg and shooting just 42.7% from the field. UNDER is 5-1 in the Kings last 6 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, 13-4 in the Pistons last 17 road games after playing their previous game as a road dog, 23-10 in their last 33 against the Western Conference and 10-4 in their last 14 road games against a team with a losing home record. We also find a strong system in play, as the UNDER is 50-21 (70%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a team that has covered at least 4 of their last 6, playing their 4th road game in 7 days and a total set at 200 or more points. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
11-06-15 | Wizards v. Celtics +1.5 | Top | 98-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Celtics + With the Wizards sitting at 3-1 and the Celtics at 1-3, this may seem like an obvious spot to back Washington as a small road favorite. I don't think that's the case at all. The books are begging for money on the Wizards with this small spread, but the real value here is with Boston as a small home favorite. The Celtics have proceeded to lose 3 straight since their blowout win at home against the 76ers in their opener. Two of those losses came at home against the Raptors and Spurs, who are two of the better teams in the league. The other was a heartbreaking 2-point loss at Indiana that could have went either way. Washington is getting some love here after their 102-99 win at home against the Spurs. San Antonio is a team that everyone gets up for, so I actually think that sets them up for a letdown, especially with a huge division road game against the Hawks on deck tomorrow. The Wizards other two wins have come against the Magic and Bucks, which isn't saying much. What stands out is a 7-point home loss to the Knicks, who aren't any good. Wizards are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 off a win by 6 points or less and just 9-21 in their last 30 road games on Friday night. Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, while Washington is 3-7 in their last 10 against a team with a losing home record. We also find a strong system, as teams off an upset loss as a favorite (Celtics) against an opponent off an upset win as a home dog (Wizards) are 67-33 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Boston! |
|||||||
11-04-15 | Clippers +8 v. Warriors | Top | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
5* Clippers/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Clippers + We are seeing the Warriors overvalued here due to their 4-0 SU & ATS start, which includes a 50-point win over Memphis at home in their last contest. The thing to keep in mind is that none of the teams they have beat are playing well to start the season. The Pelicans, who they have played twice, are 0-4, Memphis is just 3-2 with a 30-point loss to Cleveland and the Rockets are 1-3. The Clippers will be without a doubt the best team they have faced to this point. Los Angeles has also started 4-0, though they are just 2-2 ATS with both non-covers coming in their last 2 games. There's no question this a game the Clippers have circled on the schedule, as it's a big measuring stick to see where they stand against the former champs. I look for LA to come out and give the Warriors all they can handle in a game that I see being decided in the final minutes. Clippers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games and 16-4 ATS in their last 20 road games after 2 straight games where they had 10 or fewer offensive rebounds. Take Los Angeles! |
|||||||
10-30-15 | Wolves v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 95-78 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Nuggets - Denver is a team that no one was talking about coming into the season, but are one to keep an eye on. The Nuggets were certainly impressive in their opener, going on the road and defeating the Rockets 105-85 as a 10.5-point underdog. The Timberwolves played inspired in wake of the unfortunate loss of Saunders and pulled out a 112-111 against the Lakers in LA. They needed a late rally to do so and let's no get carried away with a win over a Lakers team that is one of the worst in the west. Last year the Nuggets went just 19-22 at home and it's been a point of emphasis this offseason to bring back the home court edge to the Pepsi Center. I look for the Nuggets to come out inspired in this one and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if this turned into a blowout. Minnesota could have a difficult time bouncing back after that emotional win to start the season, plus this is a very young team that isn't all that familiar with success and winning back-to-back games on the road is not something you see many young teams do. I also like the point guard matchup here, with Nuggets rookie Emmanuel Mudiay's defensive presence against Ricky Rubio. Nuggets are 11-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons off a win by 10 or more points as an underdog and are 34-15 in their last 49 home games against a team with a winning road record. Minnesota is 10-21 ATS over the last 2 years after allowing 110 or more points and 18-39 ATS in their last 57 off a road win by 3 points or less. Take Denver! |
|||||||
06-16-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 | Top | 105-97 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
5* Warriors/Cavs NBA Finals Game 6 No Brainer on Cavs + It's do or die for the Cavaliers in Game 6 at home and I expect James and company to deliver. Playing at home is exactly what Cleveland's players need, as they will be able to feed off the energy of the home crowd. As good as Golden State has looked in their last two games, it's a whole different beast closing out a series, especially on the road for the NBA title. I look for the pressure to get to the Warriors. Cleveland is also the more desperate team and desperation has proven to be a big advantage in the postseason. Favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - after 3 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (102+ PPG) after 42+ games are a mere 10-33 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Cavs. Take Cleveland! |
|||||||
06-14-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 91-104 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Cavaliers + I anticipated that the Cavaliers were in trouble in Game 4. Not only did Golden State seem to figure out something offensively with David Lee getting more minutes, but Cleveland had used up so much energy in Games 2 & 3 that they were due for a letdown. I believe the 2 days off between Game 4 and Game 5 are huge for the Cavaliers. Look for James to return to the form that had him flirting with 40 points and a triple-double in the first 3 and for Cleveland to keep this one well within striking distance to cover. I also don't think it's out of question that the Cavaliers win this outright. The Cavaliers are 33-19 in their last 52 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points and 15-2 in their last 17 after playing 4 straight games as an underdog. Take Cleveland! |
|||||||
06-11-15 | Golden State Warriors -2.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 103-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
5* Warriors/Cavs NBA Finals Vegas Insider on Warriors - Golden State didn't make the adjustments that I expected going into Game 3 and it was more of the same thing that we saw in Games 1 and 2. However, I believe they found something in that contest with David Lee. His ability to make plays out of the pick-and-roll really gave the Warriors offense a boost and we started to see Curry look like the MVP down the stretch. The Warriors just haven't looked themselves and I think the desperation that comes with being down 2-1 on the road is going to light a fire under this team. It's about time the role players stepped up and contributed. You also have to take into consideration that LeBron is due to regress some from the ridiculous numbers he's put up in the first three games of the series. You also have to keep in mind that both Shumpert and Dellavedova were banged up in Game 3 and the Cav's have no depth. I just see this being a bit of a letdown for Cleveland. Take Golden State to tie it up at 2-2! |
|||||||
06-09-15 | Golden State Warriors -1.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 91-96 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
5* Warriors/Cavs NBA Finals Game of the Year on Warriors - LeBron James was special in Game 2 with 39 points, 16 rebounds and 11 assists, while Golden State's Stephen Curry had one of his worst games in recent memory (5 of 23 for 19 points). You would expect Cleveland to have won by double-digits given this stat line, but instead they nearly lost outright. James is going to continue to get his, but I just don't see the Cavaliers being able to keep up their defensive intensity. They just don't have a deep enough bench and I believe the 1-day off between Game 2 and Game 3 is going to be the difference here. Curry will be much better tonight and chances are James won't replicate his triple-double stat line. All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 51-22 ATS since 1996. That's a 70% long-term system in favor of the Warriors. Take Golden State! |
|||||||
06-07-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers +8 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 95-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Warriors NBA Finals Vegas Insider on Cavs + I think we are seeing a big overreaction here with the Cavaliers now an 8-point dog in Game 2. I know Cleveland lost a key player in Irving, but he was already playing at less than 100% and was a liability defensively. As long as James is on the floor, the Cavs have a shot at winning. While I don't think they get a victory here, I am expecting this to be a close game. Over James' career he's lost Game 1 of a series 8 times and his team has rebounded on all 8 of those occasions to win Game 2 (7-1 ATS). That trend alone makes this an obvious play on Cleveland given we are almost getting double-digits here. It's also worth noting that home favorites who are leading in a playoff series that won 75% or more of their games against a team with a winning record are 14-35 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland! |
|||||||
06-04-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Golden State Warriors -5.5 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Warriors NBA Finals G1 Vegas Insider on Warriors - The Warriors are showing decent value here as a mere 5.5-point home favorite in Game 1 of the finals. Keep in mind that Golden State was no less than a 9.5-point favorite in any of their previous home games in the playoffs. Not to mention the Warriors only lost 3 times at home all season. Cleveland may have the best player in the game in LeBron James, but the Warriors are the better team. Golden State's depth is going to pose a big problem for the Cavaliers, who are without Love and Irving playing at less than 100%. It also comes down to matchups. Warriors have the players defensively that can guard James and lower his efficiency, similar to what the Bulls did. Cleveland on the other hand has no answer defensively for Curry or Thompson. Let's not forget that James has never won a Game 1 road contest in his career (0-7). Take Golden State! |
|||||||
05-27-15 | Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -10.5 | Top | 90-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
5* Rockets/Warriors NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Warriors - |
|||||||
05-26-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5 | Top | 88-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
5* Hawks/Cavs NBA Playoffs Heavy Hitter on Cavs - |
|||||||
05-25-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Houston Rockets OVER 213 | Top | 115-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
5* Warriors/Rockets Vegas Insider on Over 213 |
|||||||
05-24-15 | Atlanta Hawks +9 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
5* Hawks/Cavs No Brainer on Hawks + |
|||||||
05-23-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Houston Rockets +1.5 | Top | 115-80 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
5* Warriors/Rockets Vegas Insider on Rockets + |
|||||||
05-22-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 197 | Top | 94-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Hawks NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on UNDER These two teams combined for just 185 points in Game 1 and I just don't see this being a high-scoring series given the form that both of these two are in. Cleveland is playing without Love and Irving is hobbled and potentially might sit this one out. The Hawks are more than likely without Carroll and even if he does play he will be at less than 100%. The Hawks defense forced the Cavaliers into a lot of isolation sets, which slows their offense way down. Had it not been for J.R. Smith being on fire, Cleveland likely wouldn't have struggled to reach 90 points. Smith is extremely inconsistent and chances are he won't have near the same impact in Game 2. UNDER is 10-2 in the Hawks last 12 games when revenging a home loss and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 when coming off a home loss. UNDER is also 9-1 in the Cavaliers last 10 after allowing 90 points or less in 2 straight games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 90% (26-3) system. Take the UNDER 197! |
|||||||
05-21-15 | Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -10 | Top | 98-99 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
5* Rockets/Warriors NBA No Limit Top Play on Warriors - While the Warriors ended up winning Game 1 by just 4-points, there were some positive signs that point to a blowout victory in Game 2. Golden State trailed by as many as 16 in the 2nd quarter and later led by as many as 11. In just a little over a half, the Warriors outscored the Rockets by 37-points. With Dwight Howard likely sidelined and not effective if he does play, I just don't see the Warriors taking their foot off the gas, especially after losing Game 2 at home after winning Game 1 in their last series against Memphis. You also have to factor in that James Harden put up 28 on 11 of 20 shooting in Game 1 and to do so had to make a number of difficult shots. Even if Harden has another strong game, I still think the Warriors win here by double-digits. Take Golden State! |
|||||||
05-20-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks -1 | Top | 97-89 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
5* Cavaliers/Hawks NBA No Limit Top Play on Hawks - Both of these teams closed out their last series with 3 straight wins after falling into an early 1-2 series deficit. While you could make a strong case for both teams in Game 1, I think the value here is clearly with the Hawks at basically a pick'em on their home floor. Atlanta proved to be a horrible matchup for the Cavaliers in the regular season. Cleveland won the first game of the series at home, but would drop the last 3 by a combined 46 points. Cleveland had no answer defensively in those 3 losses, as the Hawks shot 50% or better in all 3 of their wins. With Cleveland playing without Love and Irving clearly at less than 100%, Atlanta provided a much better matchup here than most people think. Cleveland is just 4-13 ATS in their 17 games this season when listed as an underdog and 4-14 in their last 18 road games when revenging a road loss. Atlanta is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 off an upset win as a road dog. These trends combine to form a strong 80% (45-11) system in favor of the Hawks. Take Atlanta! |
|||||||
05-19-15 | Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -10 | Top | 106-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
5* Rockets/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider on Warriors - While the Rockets pulled off the shocking comeback against the Clippers, I'm not expecting Houston to put up much of a fight against the Warriors. While 10-points is a lot to be laying in a playoff game, keep in mind that Golden State swept the season series 4-0 with all 4 wins coming by double-digits. I believe Houston's success at the end of the Clippers series was more a result of LA's starters running out of gas. The Clippers featured a thin rotation that just couldn't hold up. When they were were clicking they embarrassed Houston early in the series and that's what I'm expecting to see here, as the Warriors feature a deep roster and matches up well with the Rockets. The other big factor here is rest. Golden State has been off since Friday, while Houston just played a do or die Game 7 on Sunday. It's going to be hard for the Rockets to come out with the intensity needed to keep it close on the road against a team like the Warriors. I also think the fact that Golden State fell behind early against Memphis will have them extra motivated to start the series strong. Warriors are 9-1 in their last 10 home games when playing just their 6th game in a span of 14 days and have won these by an average score of 111.7 to 94.1 (+17.6 ppg). Golden State is also 12-4 in their last 16 off 3 straight wins by 10+ points and 6-1 in their last 7 when playing with at least 3 days of rest. These trends combine to form a 82% (27-6) system in favor of the Warriors. Take Golden State! |
|||||||
05-17-15 | Los Angeles Clippers -2 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 100-113 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
5* Clippers/Rockets NBA No Limit Top Play on Clippers - The better team advanced to the conference finals in each of the other 3 series and I expect this one to be no different. The Clippers got outplayed in Game 5 at Houston and let their foot off the gas at home in Game 6. Even with the Rockets getting Game 7 at home, I like the Clipper to come out with a win to move on to face Golden State. Road favorites playing with double-revenge after a game where the opponent played on the road and each team scored 100+ points have gone 57-24 (70%) ATS since 1996. LA is also 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 8-2 in their last 10 when playing on 2 days rest. Take Los Angeles! |
|||||||
05-15-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Washington Wizards UNDER 197.5 | Top | 94-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Month on Hawks/Wizards UNDER These two teams combined for just 163 points in Game 5 at Atlanta and I look for the strong defensive efforts to carry over to Game 6. Keep in mind that the these two teams only combined for 87 points in the 2nd half of Game 4. It's not a surprise that the defenses are starting to win over the offenses, as these two teams are now extremely familiar with how far we are into the series. Atlanta's offense hasn't looked right for awhile and the Wizards matchup extremely well. On the flip side of this, I actually think the return of Wall hurts the offensive chemistry that Washington had built up. UNDER is 12-1 in Atlanta's last 13 playoff games when they have an opportunity to close out the series, giving us a strong 92% system in play tonight. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
05-14-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls -2 | Top | 94-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Bulls NBA No Limit Top Play on Bulls - Cleveland has taken back control of the series with two straight wins to lead 3-2, but I look for them to really struggle here in Game 6 against a Bulls team with their backs against the wall. Keep in mind that the Cavaliers invested a lot in those two wins, as those were two games they couldn't afford to lose. Both of those games came right down to the wire and Chicago was missing a key part in their offense in Gasol, who is expected to return to the lineup tonight. Getting Gasol back makes the Bulls a much more dangerous team and I believe it will be the difference in this one. Cavaliers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 when playing on 1 days rest and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win, while Chicago is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100+ points, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 80% (32-8) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago! |
|||||||
05-13-15 | Memphis Grizzlies +9.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 78-98 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
5* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider on Grizzlies + While the Warriors were able to come away with an easy 101-84 win at Memphis to tie up the series at 2-2, I don't see them blowing out the Grizzlies in back-to-back games. Let's not forget that Memphis won at Golden State 97-90 in Game 2 as a 10-point dog. This is also a bit of a letdown spot for the Warriors, as they laid everything they had on the line in Game 4 to avoid falling behind 3-1 in the series. I do think there's a good chance that Golden State wins this game, but 9.5-points is a lot to cover, especially the way these two teams have been grinding it out defensively. Warriors are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 following a SU win and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Grizzlies are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 after allowing 100+ points and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU loss. These trends add up to form a strong 79% (30-8) system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis! |
|||||||
05-12-15 | Los Angeles Clippers -2.5 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 103-124 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
5* Clippers/Rockets NBA No Limit Top Play on Clippers - While the Rockets are facing elimination and this may seem like the spot to back them as a small home dog, I just don't think Houston is going to be able to extend the series to a Game 6. Doc Rivers understands the importance of closing out the series and getting that extra rest before the conference finals, especially with Paul nursing a hamstring injury. Houston has already lost at home to the Clippers without Paul and were fortunate to win Game 2 with Paul sidelined. They clearly had a lot to play for in their two games in LA and they didn't show up in either of those contests, getting blown out by 25 points in Game 3 and 33 points in Game 4. Clippers are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 road games overall, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against poor free throw shooting teams that are making 71% or less from the charity line and 8-0 ATS in the 2nd half over the last 2 seasons against teams who average 27 or more free throw attempts/game. These trends add up to form a strong 83% (36-7) system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles! |
|||||||
05-10-15 | Houston Rockets +7.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 95-128 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
5* Rockets/Clippers NBA No Limit Top Play on Rockets + I'm expecting a much better effort defensively from Houston in Game 3 and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. These two teams are more evenly matched than the spread would indicate and I don't see there being such a drastic difference in shooting percentage in Game 4. The Clippers shot 55.4% from the field in Game 3, while the Rockets hit just 39.8% of their attempts. This is a zig-zag theory play at it's finest and so far the system has been hitting at a high rate here in the conference quarterfinals. Adding to that is the fact that the Rockets are 20-8 in their last 28 after a defeat and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 following a loss of 10+ points. Road underdogs revenging a blowout loss of 20 or more points against an opponent off a home win are 75-34 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% 5-year system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston! |
|||||||
05-08-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls -1.5 | Top | 96-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
5* Bulls/Cavs NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Bulls - Cleveland came out on a mission in Game 2 to avoid falling behind 0-2 in the series and the Bulls simply weren't able to match that intensity off that big win in Game 1. I still think Chicago is the better team here with the Cavaliers missing Love and really like the value we are getting with the Bulls laying just 1.5-points at home. Cleveland was on fire from downtown in Game 2, hitting 46% (12-26). I just don't see that kind of shooting carrying over on the road against a Bulls defense that will be a lot better than it was in Game 2. Cavaliers rely too much on 1-on-1 basketball with James and Irving and need them to be special just to keep it close. When the books list the Cavs as an underdog, it's been a wise move to take the favorite, as Cleveland is just 3-12 ATS this season when getting points. The Cavs are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after a win by 10+ points. Chicago on the other hand is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 revenging a loss of 10+ points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100+ points. These trends combine to form a 80% (33-8) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago! |
|||||||
05-06-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets -6.5 | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
5* Clippers/Rockets NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Rockets - LA shocked Houston in Game 1 by winning on the road and stealing the homecourt advantage without Chris Paul in the lineup. I don't know if it was the long layoff from the first series or the fact that they thought it would be an easy win with Paul on the sidelines, but the Rockets clearly didn't show up to play. That's not going to be the case in Game 2. The Rockets have to treat this like a Game 7, as they can't afford to fall behind 0-2 in the series. The Clippers on the other hand are in a prime letdown spot. They got the split they wanted and I would be shocked if Paul played tonight. I could see this one getting ugly in a hurry in favor of the Rockets, as LA is already likely looking ahead to Game 3. Houston is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 when revenging a loss where they allowed 110+ points and 8-1 ATS in last 9 home games when revenging a loss. Rockets are also 10-1 ATS off a home loss and 7-0 ATS off an upset loss by 10 or more. These trends combine to form a strong 86% (37-6) system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston! |
|||||||
05-05-15 | Memphis Grizzlies +10.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 97-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Grizzlies + The Grizzlies were without one of their most important pieces in point guard Mike Conley in Game 1 and shot a dreadful 25% from the 3-point line in a 15-point defeat. With Conley expected to return and a good chance Memphis won't be as bad from long-distance, I believe we are getting some incredible value here with the Grizzlies catching double-digits in Game 2. One of the important things to note is that Memphis' defense played well in the series opener, limiting the Warriors to just 101 points. Conley not only helps out offensively, but his defensive presence on Curry should make a big difference. I don't think it's out of the question that Memphis wins this game outright. Home favorites that won more than 75% of their games and leading in a playoff series are just 13-37 ATS against a team with a winning record since 1996. That's a 74% system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis! |
|||||||
05-04-15 | Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 194.5 | Top | 99-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
5* Bulls/Cavs NBA Vegas Insider on UNDER The most recent matchup between these two teams came towards the end of the regular season (4/5) and there was a decent amount at stake with Cleveland not having safely secured the No. 2 seed. The total posted for that game was an identical 194.5 and the two teams ended up combining for 193. With how big a series this is and the intensity that comes with the playoffs, I think we are seeing a ton of value on the UNDER. The biggest key here is that Cleveland has lost Kevin Love and J.R. Smith is suspended for the first two games. Both of those guys do a tremendous job of spacing the defense, not having them on the floor is going to allow the Bulls to collapse inside and take away the driving lanes for James and Irving. In that last contest back in early April, Love had 11 points (3 3-pointers) and Smith had 24 (8 3-pointers). I think there's a good chance that both teams fail to score more than 90 points. UNDER is 4-0-1 in Bulls last 5 games playing with 3 or more days of rest, 18-6 in their last 24 road games against a team with a winning home record and 20-8 in the Cavs last 28 home games against a team with a winning road record. These trends combine to form a 75% (42-14) system. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
05-03-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 197 | Top | 86-101 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
5* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider on UNDER The last time these two teams faced off in the regular season the total was set at just 196.5 points. That alone shows you the value we are getting here, as the defensive intensity will be taken to a whole different level. A lot of people think the Warriors are all flash on offense, but that's not the case at all. Golden State led the league in defensive efficiency. Memphis to no surprise also ranked inside the Top 5 in that category. Grizzlies know they keep up with the Warriors in a shootout and Golden State understands that Memphis has little to no chance of beating them at home if they match the Grizzlies intensity on the defensive side of the ball. Steph Curry backed up this point, saying, "Our defense is going to show up. That's what we're going to bank on for the whole series." UNDER is 68-24 in games with a total set between 190 and 199.5 points, where you have a well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days (Warriors), on Sunday. That's a 74% long-term system. BET THE UNDER! |
|||||||
05-01-15 | Atlanta Hawks -3.5 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 111-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hawks - While the series hasn't played out the same as the Bulls/Bucks, I believe we are going to see Atlanta rise up to the occasion, just like the Bulls did in Game 5, and put this series to rest. I don't think the Hawks expected to get this much fight out of Brooklyn, but now that the series can be closed out, I look for them to come out with their best showing. The books simply haven't set the line high enough given the circumstances. If Atlanta wins like I'm expecting, there's a really good chance they win by at least 4-points. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games are 106-60 ATS since 1996! That's a 64% system in favor of the Hawks. Take Atlanta! |
|||||||
04-30-15 | Chicago Bulls -3.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 120-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
5* Bulls/Bucks NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Bulls - It's almost as if the Bulls thought the Bucks were going to lay down and give them the series after they took a commanding 3-0 lead. That hasn't been the case at all, as Milwaukee has won 2 straight. Most of that is a result of the Bucks wanting it more. I don't believe that will be the case tonight, as I look for Chicago to come out and treat this like Game 7. The Bulls are the better team and I'll take my chances on them closing this thing out and doing so by at least 4-points. Bucks are just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games after successfully covering 2 or more straight games and 1-9 in their last 10 home games off 2 or more consecutive wins. Chicago is 25-12 in their last 37 after failing to cover 2 or more straight games and 7-1 in their last 8 when playing with 2 days of rest. These trends add up to form a 74% (60-21) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago! |
|||||||
04-29-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 200 | Top | 97-107 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Nets/Hawks UNDER I believe we are seeing a major overreaction here from the books due to Game 4's high-scoring affair that saw the Hawks/Nets combine for 235 points. Only 208 of those game in regulation, as the two combined for 27 in overtime. Each of the first 3 games in the series finished with 191 or less, including a mere 174 in Game 3. Defense has the edge as these series progress, which is why I'm not expecting to see a repeat of the strong shooting percentages from Game 4, where Atlanta hit 48.4% from the field and Brooklyn 47.9%. Keep in mind that even with both teams red-hot, they only went over the posted total for Game 5 by a mere 8-points in regulation. UNDER is 12-2 in the Nets last 14 after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots and 12-3 in their last 15 as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points. UNDER is also 4-1 in Atlanta's last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record and 4-1 in their last 5 following a game where they failed to cover. These trends add up to form a strong 82% (32-7) system. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
04-27-15 | Atlanta Hawks -4.5 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 115-120 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hawks - The Hawks have had a surprisingly tough time with the Nets so far in the series and are coming off a 83-91 defeat in Game 3. Atlanta clearly hasn't played to the same level as we saw early on the regular season, but I'm not about to give up on the Hawks. Atlanta's struggles in the last two games have simply been a result of poor shooting. The Hawks shot just 38.9% from the field in Game 2 and 35.6% in Game 3. The key thing to note is that they are getting good looks and with the shooters they have it's only a matter of time before they get going. The Nets are playing with a hobbled Deron Williams and to this point have over-achieved in the series. It's also important to note that Brooklyn doesn't have much of a homecourt advantage, as they went just 19-22 at home during the regular season. Hawks are 23-13 ATS this season when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 after playing their previous game on the road. Atlanta is also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 when playing on a full days rest. These trends combine to form a strong 67% (41-20) system in favor of the Hawks. Take Atlanta! |
|||||||
04-26-15 | Los Angeles Clippers +6 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 114-105 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Game of the Year on Clippers + This is a perfect spot to back the Clippers in Game 4. After dominating Game 1 107-92, LA gave one away in Game 2 in overtime and were simply outplayed in Game 3 at San Antonio. As a result of the Spurs 100-73 win in Game 3, we have seen this line jump quite a bit. The Spurs were just a 4.5-point favorite in Game 3 and are now laying 6 at home in Game 4. I'll gladly take the points as insurance, but I really like the Clippers chances of winning this game outright. LA couldn't buy a basket in Game 3 and you could see it had a negative effect on their play defensively. I'm confident the Clippers will shoot better than 34% in Game 4. Road underdogs revenging a home loss of 20 or more points against an opponent against an opponent off a home win by 10+ points are 47-20 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% long-term system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles! |
|||||||
04-25-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Portland Trailblazers -3 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
5* Grizzlies/Blazers NBA No Limit Top Play on Trail Blazers - After getting embarrassed in the first two games of the series at Memphis, I look for the Trail Blazers to bounce back in a big way at home in Game 3. Portland finished the regular season with one of the top home records in the league at 32-9 and I'm confident they will answer the call with their season on the line. The Trail Blazers certainly can't shoot any worse than they have to start the series. After going just 33.7% from the field in Game 1, Portland shot just 39% in Game 2. Their defense actually did a decent job against the Grizzlies, holding them under 45% in both games. Portland shot 45% from the field at home in the regular season and I believe the comfort of home will be the difference in this one. Counting their final regular season game, where they shot just 41.8% at Dallas, we find Portland in a very profitable spot here, as they are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games after shooting 42% or worse in their last 3 games. It's also worth noting that road underdogs who have won 3 or more straight home games and are playing just their 5th game in 14 days are a mere 10-32 ATS since 1996. That's a 76% long-term system in favor of the Trail Blazers. Take Portland! |
|||||||
04-23-15 | Chicago Bulls v. Milwaukee Bucks +3 | Top | 113-106 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
5* Bucks/Bulls NBA No Limit Top Play on Bucks + This line alone is telling you that the oddsmakers are expecting the Bucks to win Game 3, as the betting public will be all over Chicago with this low line. The Bulls won Game 1 by 12 and Game 2 by 9, but both of those games were closer than than the final score would indicate. While Chicago certainly doesn't want this series to drag out, they have a nice 2-0 cushion and could be focused more on saving up for Game 4 and looking to close out the series in Game 5. Either way I like the Bucks chances of pulling off the upset here. Keep in mind the Bulls will be missing a big piece to the puzzle, as Nikola Mirotic is out with a quad injury suffered in Game 2. He's a big loss, as he does everything well and allows the Bulls to space the floor offensively with his ability to hit the 3-point shot. Bucks are 20-9 ATS this season after playing 2 straight games as an underdog and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 following 2 or more consecutive losses. Take Milwaukee! |
|||||||
04-22-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers -1 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
5* Spurs/Clippers NBA Vegas Insider on Clippers - The Clippers dominated Game 1 of the series 107-92. While most will be looking to back the Spurs in huge rebound spot, I believe the real value here is with Los Angeles at basically a pick'em at home. San Antonio simply has no answer for Griffin and Paul and figure to be in even more trouble with Tony Parker nursing an ankle injury. Backing the team that loss the previous game in a playoff series is typically a strong investment, but that's not the case given the circumstances for this matchup. Coming into the playoffs, road teams off a road loss with a -3.5 to +3.5 have gone just 28-55-1 (33.7%) ATS since 2002. Keep in mind that the Clippers have now won three straight against the Spurs and that San Antonio is just 1-8 ATS this season in road games against teams that have won between 60% to 70% of their games (0-7 last 7). They are also just 9-21 ATS over the last 3 seasons in road games in the 2nd half against teams scoring 103+ ppg. On the other hand LA is 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games when playing with 2 days of rest. These trends combine to form a strong 72% (50-19) system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles! |
|||||||
04-21-15 | Dallas Mavericks v. Houston Rockets UNDER 215.5 | Top | 99-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Total Top Play on Mavs/Rockets UNDER These two teams combined for 226 points in Game 1, easily surpassing the total of 213. That high-scoring affair has forced the books to raise the total by 2.5-points and thus creating some great value on the UNDER. The defensive intensity is at a different level in the playoffs and it gets turned up a notch after the first game of the series. Dallas tried to focus all their attention on Harden in Game 1 and it backfired with the other guys stepping up. Head coach Rick Carlisle is one of the best ad making adjustments in the playoffs and I look for the Mavericks to do a much better job defensively in Game 2. It's important to note that these two teams played 4 times during the regular season and all 4 of those meetings finished with fewer than 211 points. One of things that gets overlooked is how good defensively the Rockets were given their pace. Houston ranked 6th in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. UNDER is 12-4 in Mavericks last 16 when playing with double-revenge against an opponent and 13-5 in the Rockets last 18 when facing a team that's won 60% to 70% of their games. Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 30-8 over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off 2 or more consecutive overs (HOU) against an opponent off 6 or more consecutive overs (DAL). That's a 79% system. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
04-20-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 187 | Top | 82-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
5* Bucks/Bulls NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on UNDER It looked like Game 1 was going to fly over the total of 186 after the Milwaukee and Chicago combined for 111 points in the 1st half. Instead they just barely finished over the mark at 194. The Bucks managed just 40 points in the 2nd half and the Bulls scored just 43. I believe that's more of the type of offensive output that we can expect to see going forward. Chicago's defense has really came on strong down the stretch and the Bucks just don't have any real dynamic offensive players. The Bulls have held the Bucks to just 85.3 ppg over the last 8 meetings and aren't going to take their foot off the gas. Chicago needs to finish this series quickly and make sure they are 100% going into their much anticipated round 2 showdown against the Cavs. UNDER is 6-1 in the Bucks last 7 following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 19-8 in their last 27 road games when revenging a road loss. UNDER is also 20-9 in the Bulls last 29 off a home by 10+ points and 11-2 in their last 13 after scoring 60+ in the first half of their previous game. These trends combine to form a strong 74% (56-20) system. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
04-18-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls -7.5 | Top | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
5* Bucks/Bulls NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Bulls - The Bulls have once again overcame numerous injuries to win 50-games, but unlike previous years they are entering the playoffs healthy. I think Chicago is more than capable of winning the entire thing and certainly should have no problem getting past a slumping Bucks team. Milwaukee has not been the same team since they traded away Brandon Knight and lost 3 of 4 during the season series to Chicago. Three of those wins for the Bulls came by 8 or more points and the lone loss was by just 4-points on the road and they were missing Rose. The Bucks are not a good road team and I just don't see them being able to keep this one close enough to cover. Milwaukee went just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that had won more than 60% of their games. Chicago is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a losing road record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when playing with a full 2 days of rest. These trends add up to form a 79% (15-4) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago! |
|||||||
04-15-15 | San Antonio Spurs -5 v. New Orleans Pelicans | Top | 103-108 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Spurs - The Pelicans need to win this game to make the playoffs, as a New Orleans loss and an Oklahoma City win over the lowly Timberwolves would leave the Pelicans out of the postseason. Unfortunately for New Orleans, this game means a lot to the Spurs as well. With a win San Antonio can secure the No. 2 seed in the West, while a loss could push the Spurs as far back the No. 6 seed. Given the fact that San Antonio has won a season-best 11 straight games to get to this point, I don't see them not finishing off their run with a win here at New Orleans. The Pelicans have won 7 of 10, but only won of those came against a playoff team and that was at home against Golden State, who didn't have much to play for, were in the midst of playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and fresh off a crushing 15-point loss at San Antonio. This team simply isn't as good as their recent run would suggest, which in turn has created some great value here on the Spurs. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who led in their previous game by 15+ points at the half against an opponent that has scored 100+ in 2 straight games are just 9-30 ATS since 1996. That's a 77% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio! |
|||||||
04-14-15 | Toronto Raptors -1.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 93-95 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Raptors - Despite having Monday off, the Celtics clinched one of the final two playoff spots in the east, thanks to a Nets loss at home to the Bulls. Boston has been playing as well as anyone down the stretch and laying it all the line to get into the playoffs. Now that the goal has officially been accomplished, it's human nature for them to suffer a letdown. Toronto is also locked into the playoffs and have secured homecourt advantage in the first round, but they are still battling with Chicago for the No. 3 spot, which is the difference between playing a dangerous Wizards team or a slumping Bucks team in the first round. That's not the only motivation here for the Raptors, as they will be out for revenge from a heartbreaking 116-117 home loss to the Celtics earlier this month (4/4). Toronto can also set a franchise record for wins in a season with a victory. Adding to this is a strong system. Home teams off a game where they led by 20+ points at the half are just 74-111 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 60% long-term system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto! |
|||||||
04-12-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 207.5 | Top | 104-116 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Pacers/Thunder UNDER With both Oklahoma City and Indiana fighting for their playoff lives right now and both teams fresh off a days rest, I'm expecting both to lay it all on the line defensively in this one. The Pacers are currently 9th in the east, but are just 1-game back of both Boston and Brooklyn. The Thunder are in tie for 8th with the Pelicans, but technically 9th as they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker. Indiana allowed 103 in their last game against Detroit, but prior to that had held each of their previous 3 opponents under 90 points. While Oklahoma City's defense hasn't been great of late, the Pacers are only averaging 97.3 ppg on the season. These two teams combined for just 197 in the previous meeting this season in Oklahoma City and the last time they played in Indiana the two combined for just 199. UNDER is 29-14 in the Thunders last 43 after allowing 100+ in 4 straight games and 35-19 in the Pacers last 54 after allowing a shooting percentage of 42% or less in each of their last 5 games. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
04-07-15 | Charlotte Hornets v. Miami Heat UNDER 189 | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
5* Southeast Division Game of the Month on Hornets/Heat UNDER Miami is tied with Indiana at 34-43, which has them 1-game back of the Celtics for the 8th and final spot in the Easter Conference. Charlotte is right behind both of those teams at 33-43, just 1.5-games out of the playoffs. With just 5-games left on the schedule, both teams desperately need a win here. I believe it's going to a lead to a low-scoring game, as both of these teams rely a lot on their defensive. The Heat are allowing just 97.2 ppg and Charlotte is giving up 97.0 ppg, while both teams average less than 95 ppg offensively. All 3 of the previous matchups this season have seen a combined score of 187 or less, including a mere 154 in the most recent matchup. UNDER is 0-9 this season when Charlotte is playing with 2 days rest and 2-12 in the Heat's last 14 when playing against a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). These two trends combine to form a dynamite 91% (21-2) system. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
04-04-15 | Wisconsin v. Kentucky -5 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -108 | 29 h 53 m | Show |
5* Kentucky/Wisconsin Final Four No Limit Top Play on Kentucky - Kentucky struggled against Notre Dame, while Wisconsin played their most impressive game of the tournament in their win over Arizona. I believe it’s created some great value on the Wildcats as a mere 5-point favorite. What a lot of people are over-looking is just how good a team Notre Dame is. Those that have followed the Irish closely all season, weren’t the least bit surprised to see them give Kentucky a major scare. Notre Dame does an excellent job of spacing the floor with a lot of great shooters. While Wisconsin is also an efficient offensive team that can spread the floor, they are essentially a 2-man show with Karminsky and Dekker. Kentucky is going to focus all their attention on stopping these two and I just don't think Wisconsin has enough around them to keep this close enough to cover. You also have to take into consideration that Kentucky was in a bit of a letdown spot after their 39-point blowout win over West Virginia in the Sweet 16. Whether or not that was the case, that close call against the Irish will have the Wildcats 100% locked in on the Badgers. It’s easy to fall in love with a team like Wisconsin, who is coming off an amazing performance and with a big revenge card from last year’s heartbreaking loss, but you can’t overlook the fact that the Badgers hadn’t played great in their first three tournament games and were extremely fortunate to get past North Carolina in the Sweet 16. It’s not very often you will get a chance to back a team that’s 38-0 as a 5-point favorite. Unless you think the Badgers are going to win outright, I believe you have to take your chances with Kentucky to win here by 6 or more. Wildcats are 3-0 ATS this season when they have had 5 or 6 days of rest. Take Kentucky! |
|||||||
04-03-15 | Denver Nuggets +12.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 93-123 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
5* NBA Undervalued Underdog Game of the Month on Nuggets + While the Spurs are 8-1 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games, not once during this stretch have they been laying this many points. In fact, the last time San Antonio was this big of a favorite, was at New York, where they lost outright 100-104 as a 14-point favorite. As good as the Spurs are playing right now, this line has been drastically inflated. Denver might be out of the playoff picture, but this is a game I believe you can be confident they will show up to play. The Nuggets have lost all 3 meetings so far this season, but have been able to keep it respectable, as all 3 losses have come by 10-points or less, including a 9-point loss in the most recent meeting in San Antonio. San Antonio is just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games when they come in having played 5 consecutive games as a favorite, while the Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Adding to this is a strong system. Road underdogs of 10+ points that have lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 against an opponent that has won 8 or more of their last 10 are 87-50 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 64% system in favor of the Nuggets. Take Denver! |
|||||||
04-02-15 | Miami Heat v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 199 | Top | 88-114 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
5* Heat/Cavs TNT Total of the Month on UNDER The Cavaliers sit comfortably in 2nd in the east, 8 games back of Atlanta and 3 ahead of the Raptors and Bulls with just 7 games to play, but I don't see them taking their foot off the gas until they have secured the No. 2 spot. This also isn't just another opponent for Cleveland, as LeBron James will be going up against his former team in Miami, who the Cavaliers have lost twice to by double-digits, including the most recent meeting 92-106 in Miami on 3/16. Anytime you play the Cavaliers it means something more, but the Heat are also in playoff mode. Miami holds the 7th spot in the east, thanks to a tie-breaker over Brooklyn, but are just a 1/2 game ahead of 9th place Boston and 2 in front of 10th place Charlotte. Needless to say this game means a lot to the Heat. With the importance of this matchup for both teams, combined with the fact that we have two strong defensive teams playing in a nationally televised game on TNT, I'm expecting this one to go under the total set of 199. Miami is giving up just 95.6 ppg and the Cavs are allowing only 95.8 ppg. UNDER is 10-2 in the Heat's last 12 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 21-6 in their last 27 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 8-3 in their last 11 following a double-digit loss at home. UNDER is also 5-1 in Cavs' last 6 home games, 23-10 in their last 33 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 11-3-1 in their last 15 versus a team with a losing record. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (78-25) system. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
04-01-15 | New Orleans Pelicans -7.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Pelicans - New Orleans currently sits in 9th place in the Western Conference, just 2.5-games out of the 8th and final playoff spot. Losing to a team like the Lakers, home or away, is simply not an option for the Pelicans at this point in the season. Los Angeles is coming off a win at Philadelphia in their last game, but haven't won back-to-back games since February and this is not a great spot for the Lakers. Getting motivated this late in the season can be extremely hard for a bad team like LA and even more so when they are coming off a lengthy 5-game road trip with their last two coming completely on the other side of the country. The other big key here is that New Orleans has had their way with the Lakers this season, winning all three matchups, including each of the last two by 16+ points. Their dominance over LA has a lot to do with the Lakers not having anyone who can matchup against Anthony Davis, who is averaging 25.7 points on 69% shooting, 8.7 rebounds and 4 blocks in the 3 games during the season series. Lakers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 after playing 2 straight road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, while the Pelicans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games with a total set at 195 to 199.5 and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6. These trends combine to form a 80% (39-10) system in favor of the Pelicans. Take New Orleans! |
|||||||
03-31-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers -2 | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -103 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
5* GS/LAC Western Conference Game of the Month on Clippers - While Golden State has won 9 straight and 14 of 15 overall, this is a great spot to go against the Warriors, as they clinched the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference with their last win at Milwaukee. The focus now for Golden State will be getting ready for the playoffs, and that will like result in key players getting some time off. The Clippers have won 7 straight, but they are still in a battle for playoff seeding, including home court in the first round. This game simply means a lot more to Los Angeles and I expect them to deliver at home. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 in a game involving two teams that allow 98-102 ppg after a combined score of 205+ in each of their last two games are 42-16 ATS since 1996. That's a 72% system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles! |
|||||||
03-30-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 193 | Top | 113-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Total of the Month on 76ers/Lakers OVER I'm not expecting a whole lot of defense to be played in tonight's matchup between two of the worst teams in the league. These two teams did combine for just 188 points on 3/22, but that was with the 76ers shooting a mere 36.0% from the field. It was the Lakers best defensive effort since December of 2013, which has me confident that it's not going to repeat itself, especially considering LA will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set and their 5th straight on the road overall. OVER is 6-1 in the Lakers last 7 games after their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day and 22-11 in their last 33 when they come in having lost 12 or more of their last 15. OVER is also 42-27 in the 76ers last 69 home games after going under the total in their last game and 7-3 in their last 10 against an opponent that allowed 100+ in their last game. These trends combine to form a strong 65% (77-42) system. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
03-29-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 207 | Top | 119-106 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
5* Non-Conference Total of the Month on Clippers/Celtics UNDER The books have set the mark too high for Sunday's showdown between the Clippers and Celtics. Boston has held each of their last 3 opponents to 93 points or less, while LA has held each of their last 4 under the century mark. These two teams combined for just 195 points in their previous meeting this season and I'm expecting a similar combined score in the rematch. Another big key here to this one going under the mark is that both of these teams are fighting for playoff spots. The Clippers are a 1/2 game back of the Blazers for the No.4 spot and home court in the first round, while Boston is just a 1/2 game ahead of Brooklyn and 1 in front of both Indiana and Charlotte for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 55-23 over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 200 to 209.5 where the home team is revenging a loss against an opponent that is coming in off a road win by 10+ points. That's a 71% system. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
03-27-15 | UCLA +9 v. Gonzaga | Top | 62-74 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
5* UCLA/Gonzaga Vegas Insider Top Play on UCLA + While I'm not confident the Bruins will have enough to pull off the upset, it wouldn't come as a huge surprise. Either way we are getting some great value here with UCLA at this price. . I know Gonzaga went on the road and beat the Bruins by 13-points (87-74) earlier this season in non-conference play, but this is not the same UCLA team that struggled early in the year. The Bruins only loss over their last 7 games is a 64-70 defeat to Arizona in the Pac-12 Tournament, which is one of only two losses for Arizona by single digits in their last 14 games. Another big factor here that has me siding with UCLA, is I think this line has been inflated based on how well Gonzaga looked in their win over Iowa. Chances are the Bulldogs aren’t going to shoot 60% or better from the field and behind the 3-point line in back-to-back games and could actually come in a bit over-confident given they already beat the Bruins once this season. UCLA is 13-3 ATS this season after 15+ games against a team with a winning record and have won these contests by nearly 5 ppg. Adding to this is that they are 7-0 ATS during this same stretch against teams that are shooting 45% or better from the field and 7-1 ATS versus teams allowing 64 or less. Gonzaga is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after a game where they made 55% or more of their shots and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 80+ in 2 straight games. These trends combine to form a strong 85% (35-6) system in favor of the Bruins. Take UCLA! |
|||||||
03-26-15 | North Carolina v. Wisconsin -6 | Top | 72-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
5* UNC/Wisconsin Sweet 16 No Limit Top Play on Wisconsin - There’s no denying that the Badgers haven’t played up to their potential so far in the tournament, which I believe has them undervalued and primed for a big time performance against a North Carolina team that is fortunate that their season isn’t already over. Keep in mind that last year the Badgers came out in their Sweet 16 matchup and laid it on Baylor 69-52. This comes down to the fact that the Badgers are the better team and 6-points is a favorable number to lay on the better team in this spot, especially when you factor in that the Badgers as a team shoot 76% from the foul line. Wisconsin is also the much better defensive team in this one. The Badgers are allowing 56.8 ppg against teams averaging 69.2, while the Tar Heels are giving up 68.6 ppg against teams averaging 69.7. The Tar Heels will likely have an edge on the glass, but I don't think it will be as big as some are anticipating, especially with Kennedy Meeks (7.4 rpg) sidelined or not playing at 100%. Badgers are 41-23 ATS in their last 64 games against teams who average 40+ rebounds/game and we also see a strong system here going against North Carolina. Teams who are outrebounding their opponents by 6+ rebounds against an opponent that is outrebounding teams by 3-6 rebounds/game after 15+ games and on a neutral court are just 9-33 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 79% system in favor of the Badgers. Take Wisconsin! |
|||||||
03-25-15 | Indiana Pacers v. Washington Wizards -3.5 | Top | 103-101 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Wizards - Both of these teams come into this game in the midst of a minor slump. The Pacers have dropped 6 straight, while the Wizards come in having lost 3 in a row. The key thing to note hear is that Washington's poor play came on west coast trip which included two games against two of the elite teams in the Clippers and Warriors sandwiched around a game against the Kings. Indiana's poor play has come with them playing 4 of their last 5 at home and they are just 12-22 on the road. Washington is a completely different team at home than on the road. The Wizards are 25-10 SU at home, where they have won 5 straight, including recent wins over both the the Grizzlies and Trail Blazers. Offensively the Wizards shoot the ball at a much better clip at home and also get after it more defensively. Indiana is getting to much respect from their recent run and I feel like this is a great spot to take advantage of a short line with a better team at home. Indiana is a mere 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games played in March, 16-28 ATS in their last 44 when playing 6 or more in a span of 10 days and 6-21 ATS in their last 27 when they come in having failed to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Take Washington! |
|||||||
03-23-15 | Evansville v. Eastern Illinois +2 | Top | 83-68 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
5* CIT Game of the Year on Eastern Illinois + The Panthers should not be a home dog here against the Purple Aces. Eastern Illinois is happy to be playing in the CIT, as this is a team that hasn't enjoyed a whole lot of postseason success. This becomes that much more important to them playing at home. Eastern Illinois showed how much they wanted to be a part of this tournament with a 97-91 win at Oakland in their CIT opener, while Evansville did just enough to get back IUPU-FW in their opener. One of the big keys here is that the Purple Aces rely a lot on getting to the foul line, where they are averaging 17 makes a game. The Panthers are only allowing 16 free throw attempts a game at home. They also have been a much stronger defensive team at home compared to on the road. Opponents shot just 36.5% from the field and 30.9% from long distance at Eastern Illinois this season. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Underdogs that are giving up 63-67 ppg against an opponent that is allowing 63-67 ppg, that have allowed 75+ in 2 straight games are 213-138 ATS since 1997. That's a massive 61% long-term system in favor of the Panthers. Take Eastern Illinois! |
|||||||
03-22-15 | West Virginia v. Maryland -1 | Top | 69-59 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
5* WV/MD NCAAB Round of 32 Game of the Year on Maryland - I think the books have made a huge mistake here listing the Terrapins as a mere 1-point favorite against the Mountaineers. West Virginia just isn't that strong a team on the road and I loo for them to really struggle to keep it competitive against Maryland. The Terrapins have a dynamic backcourt of Dez Wells and Melo Trimble, who aren't going to be intimidated by West Virginia's pressure and that's really all the Mountaineers have going for them. You also can't overlook the fact that the Big 12 has been a huge disappointment in the tournament, as the conference clearly wasn't as strong as people thought. West Virginia is 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games after 15+ games against teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 versus teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against the Big Ten. Maryland is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a SU win, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus a team with a winning record and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 tournament games. These trends combine to form a strong 81% (48-11) system in favor of the Terrapins. Take Maryland! |
|||||||
03-21-15 | UAB v. UCLA -6 | Top | 75-92 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
5* UAB/UCLA NCAA Tournament No Limit Top Play on UCLA - The perception here is that the Bruins got lucky in their win over SMU, while UAB outplayed a much better Iowa State team. The public is going to be to quick to jump on the points and take the Blazers, but I actually think the value here is with UCLA. Keep in mind we had a similar scenario last year, where No. 14 Mercer upset Duke in their first game, only to lose by 20-points to No. 11 seed Tennessee in their next game. The fact that UCLA won convincingly over this team early in the year (88-76, led by 16 at half) is also a good sign, as that came back when the Bruins weren't playing well at all. This team might have had a questionable resume overall, but you can't discount how well they are playing right now. The Bruins have won 5 of 6 with their only loss being a 6-point defeat to Arizona. I'll take my chances on the Blazers not being able to live up to the hype created by their big win over the Cyclones. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 4 or more consecutive wins that are seeded 13 thru 16 in the NCAA Tournament are 18-46 ATS since 1997. That's a 72% system in favor of the Bruins. Take UCLA! |
|||||||
03-20-15 | Oklahoma State v. Oregon -1.5 | Top | 73-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tourn 2nd Round Game of the Year on Oregon - I didn't think Oklahoma State deserved to be in the field and I certainly haven't changed my opinion after watching the Big 12 fail to show up in Thursday's game. The Cowboys went just 8-10 inside conference play, closed out the season 1-6 over their final 7 games and played a cupcake non-conference schedule. On the flip side of this, the Pac-12 came to play with Arizona, UCLA and Utah all cashing in a victory on Thursday. Outside of Arizona, who is one of the elite teams in the country, Oregon closed out the season playing the best basketball of any other team in the Big 12. The Ducks won 11 of their last 13 to quietly finish 2nd in the conference standings with Utah, who they beat twice during their stretch run. Oklahoma State is just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games away from home against a strong team that has won 60% to 80% of their games and just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games away from home in the month of March. Oregon on the other hand is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 when they come in having covered 4 of their last 5 and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when listed as a favorite on a neutral court. These trends combine to form a dynamite 83% (39-8) system in favor of the Ducks. Take Oregon! |
|||||||
03-19-15 | Ohio State -4 v. VCU | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
5* Ohio State/VCU No Limit Top Play on Ohio State - The Buckeyes are a much better team than the No. 10 seed that they received and I look for them to come out looking to make a statement against VCU. The Rams are a quality team that got hot on their way to winning the A-10 Tournament, but they have not been the same team since losing Briante Weber to a season-ending injury. Even with Weber the Rams didn't stack up against elite competition from the other power conferences, as they go rolled on a neutral court by Villanova 53-77 and at home by Virginia (57-74). Senior Shannon Scott and freshman sensation D'Angelo Russell are going to have no problem picking apart VCU's press and that's really all the Rams have going for them. It's going to allow a Buckeyes team that isn't great in the halfcourt to get a lot of easy baskets in transition and I look for them to runaway with this game and win here by double-digits. Take Ohio State! |
|||||||
03-18-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Cleveland Cavaliers -11 | Top | 92-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Cavs - This may seem like a big number to back the Cavs at home against the Nets off back-to-back wins, but Cleveland is on a mission to secure that No. 2 seed and will be extra motivated after getting embarrassed at Miami 92-106 in their last game. Brooklyn's two game winning streak is far from impressive, as they knocked off the 76ers and Timberwolves. Prior to that the Nets had dropped 5 straight and 10 of their last 14 overall. Cleveland has won 13 straight at home and during this stretch are outscoring opponents by 15.7 ppg, which is why I'm not to concerned laying the big number here. It's also worth noting that the Cavaliers will be at full strength, as Kevin Love is expected to return after sitting out the last two. Brooklyn is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win by 10 or more points, while Cleveland is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Adding to this is a strong system. Home favorites of 10+ points who have went over the total by 30+ points in their last 5 games, who have won 60% to 75% of their games and are playing a team with a losing record are 41-16 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a strong 72% system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland! |
|||||||
03-17-15 | Ole Miss v. BYU -4 | Top | 94-90 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
5* Ole Miss/BYU Vegas Insider Top Play on BYU - While BYU has a history of not playing up to their potential away from home, that hasn't been the case for the 2014-15 season. The Cougars pulled off a huge upset on the road against Gonzaga recently on Feb. 28. They also had painfully close losses on a neutral setting against San Diego St (87-92 OT) and Purdue (85-87 OT). It's also important to note that BYU closed out the season playing some of their best basketball, winning 8 of their last 9 games, with the only loss coming against Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament. Ole Miss gets a lot of respect for their near upset win at Kentucky, but in reality this team wasn't all that impressive in SEC play. They finished 11-7, but were just 1-6 against conference opponents who made the NCAA Tournament. They also come in having lost 4 of their last 5. The Rebels are just 3-11 ATS over the last 2 seasons after 15+ games against strong teams that have won 60% to 80% of their games and a mere 2-9 ATS in their last 11 after 4 straight games where they forced 14 or fewer turnovers. BYU has covered the spread 57% of the time since 1997 when listed as a favorite and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games after failing to cover the spread in their most recent game. These trends combine to form a strong 82% (27-6) system in favor of the Cougars. Take BYU! |
|||||||
03-16-15 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Washington Wizards -2 | Top | 97-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Wizards - After an ugly stretch that saw them lose 6-straight, Washington has returned to form with three straight blowout wins over the Hornets (95-69), Grizzlies (107-87) and Kings (113-97) and I look for them to carry over that momentum with a win at home against the Trail Blazers. Portland has won 3 straight and 8 of 9 overall, but find themselves in a difficult scheduling spot. The Trail Blazers not only will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but this will be their 3rd game in the last 4 days overall. Adding to this is the fact that the Trail Blazers are just a 16-14 team on the road, compared to 28-6 at home. Washington will also be playing with revenge here, as they lost 96-103 at Portland back on Jan. 24. The Wizards are an impressive 30-18 ATS in their last 48 when revenging a loss to an opponent where they allowed 100+ points. Washington is also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win by more than 10 points, while the Blazers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games with a total set at 195 to 199.5 points. These trends combine to form a strong 68% (43-20) system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington! |
|||||||
03-15-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Orlando Magic UNDER 201.5 | Top | 123-108 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Magic/Cavs UNDER 201.5 The books have set the mark too high for this one, which isn't a big surprise given that the Cavaliers come in off a game against the Spurs where the two teams combined for 253 points. Prior to that Cleveland had held Dallas to 94 points and the Suns to just 79 in their last two games. Orlando isn't a great defensive team, but have been playing much better on that side of the ball since making a coaching change. The Magic have held 12 of their 15 opponents under the century mark. It's also worth noting that each of the two previous meetings this season have seen 187 and 180 points. UNDER is 14-5 in the Cavaliers last 19 after allowing 105+ points in their last game, 8-1 in their last 9 off a win by 6 points or less and 13-4 in their last 17 games played on Sunday. These trends combine to form a strong 78% (35-10) system. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
03-14-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 194 | Top | 94-87 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Nets/76ers OVER I'm expecting these two teams to fly over the total tonight. Brooklyn has allowed 100+ in three straight and 5 of their last 6. The only exception being a home game against a Utah team that is playing extremely well on the defensive end. The 76ers were able to snap out of their recent shooting funk with 114 points on 47% shooting in a home win over the Kings last time out and I look for that to carry over to this one. The other big key here is that the 76ers are not a strong defensive team and will gladly let this game turn into a shootout. OVER is 22-9 in the 76ers last 31 home games after playing two straight as a home dog, 5-0 in their last 5 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 13-4 in their last 17 home games versus teams who are called for 21 or fewer fouls per game. OVER is also 4-1 in the Nets last 5 when facing an opponent who allowed 100 or more points in their last game. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (44-14) system. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
03-13-15 | Indiana v. Maryland -2 | Top | 69-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
5* NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Maryland - The Terrapins are showing some exceptional value here as a 2-point home favorite against the Hoosiers. Indiana comes in off a big 71-56 win over Northwestern, but prior to that this team had really been slumping. With the Hoosiers at a disadvantage here in rest and talent, I just don't see them keeping this one close. Maryland closed out the regular season on a 7-game winning streak and lost just 5 times all season. While the Terrapins did lose by 19-points at Indiana and won by just 2-points at home over the Hoosiers, I think that works in their favor here, as it will have them 100% focused on the task at hand. Indiana is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 following a game where they covered the spread, while Maryland is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 neutral court games and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 tournament games. These trends combine to form a strong 81% (25-6) system in favor of the Terrapins. Take Maryland! |
|||||||
03-12-15 | Minnesota v. Ohio State -6 | Top | 73-79 | Push | 0 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
5* Big 10 Game of the Month on Ohio State - The Golden Gophers come in off a 12-point win over Rutgers in the opening round of the Big 10 Tournament, but that's nothing to get excited about. Minnesota had gone just 1-5 over their previous 6 games and I just don't see them keeping pace with the Buckeyes, who they lost at home in the only meeting during conference play. Ohio State has a big edge here playing with 3 days of rest, while Minnesota will be playing on no rest. The Gophers are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 when revenging a straight up loss to an opponent , 5-11 ATS in their last 16 against a team with a winning SU record and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 off a SU win. Ohio State on the other hand is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games off a contest where they failed to cover the number. These trends combine to form a 76% (39-12) system in favor of the Buckeyes. Take Ohio State! |
|||||||
03-12-15 | North Carolina v. Louisville +2.5 | Top | 70-60 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
5* No Limit NCAAB Top Play on Louisville + The Cardinals are showing some great value here as an underdog against the Tar Heels. North Carolina is getting a lot of love here off that big 81-63 win over Boston College yesterday, but you can't overlook the fact that the Tar Heels are playing on no rest, which is a big factor in these conference tournament games. This is an even bigger concern with the uncertainty of the status of starting forward Kennedy Meeks. On top of that, Louisville comes into the ACC Tournament off arguably their biggest win of the season, as they held on for a 59-57 win at home over then No. 2 Virginia. Montrezl Harrell was the difference in that win over the Cavaliers and when he's playing at that kind of a level, Louisville is difficult to beat. The Cardinals are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games off a conference home win, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games when they come in having won 3 of 4 and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference tournament games. North Carolina is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after 15+ games against a team with a winning record and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after 15+ against strong defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. These trends add up to form a strong 83% (45-9) system in favor of the Cardinals. Take Louisville! |
|||||||
03-11-15 | Virginia Tech v. Miami (FL) -10 | Top | 49-59 | Push | 0 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
5* ACC Game of the Month on Miami - It might not seem like it given the double-digit spread, but we are actually getting some great value here on the Hurricanes as a 10-point favorite against the Hokies. Miami was an 11.5-point home favorite in a 76-52 blowout win over Virginia Tech in the regular season. That line indicates we should have expected to see the Hurricanes closer to a 14-15-point favorite on a neutral setting. You also have to keep in mind that Miami followed up that big blowout win at home with a 82-61 win at Virginia Tech in their home finale/senior day. Needless to say the Hurricanes have the Hokies number and with a spot in the NCAA Tournament likely on the line, I look for Miami to answer the call and win here convincingly. Virginia Tech is just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a SU win and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning SU record. Miami is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 80+ points in their last game and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 after a game where they hit 50% or more of their 3-point attempts. These trends combine to form a strong 73% (37-14) system in favor of the Hurricanes. Take Miami! |
|||||||
03-09-15 | Washington Wizards +1.5 v. Charlotte Hornets | Top | 95-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
5* Wizards/Hornets Southeast Game of the Month on Wizards + This line is begging for you to take the Hornets as a small home favorite. Charlotte is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games, while the Wizards are a mere 2-7 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9. Not to mention the Hornets have won both of the previous two meetings this season. Charlotte is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100+ points in their last game and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. I look for the Hornets to struggle to match the Wizards intensity after having to use a lot of energy to rally late to beat the Pistons yesterday in a high-scoring affair. We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of Washington. Favorites that are shooting 33% or worse from behind the 3-point line are 34-70 ATS in the month of March over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington! |
|||||||
03-08-15 | Charlotte Hornets v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 193.5 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Hornets/Pistons UNDER These two teams combined for just 184 points in their only other meeting this season and I'm expecting a similar low-scoring affair in this one. Charlotte has scored 100+ in 3 straight games and are simply not built to sustain that kind of offensive success, but in the short term it has created some great value here. The Hornets are only averaging 95.0 ppg and are a team built on their effort defensively. Charlotte has held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 94 points or less, while the Pistons have scored 95 or fewer in 4 of their last 5. While Detroit hasn't been playing great defensively of late, they hold New Orleans to just 88 points two games ago and figure to be highly motivated to snap a 5-game losing streak. UNDER is 14-4 in the Hornets last 18 after scoring 100+ in 2 or more consecutive games, 7-2 in their last 9 road games and 8-1 in their last 9 when coming in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7. UNDER is also 12-3 in the Pistons last 15 games after allowing 100+, 6-1 in their last 7 following a SU loss and 4-0 in their last 4 at home after a road trip of 7 or more days. These trends combine to form a 82% (51-11) system. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
03-07-15 | Alabama v. Texas A&M -7 | Top | 61-60 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
5* Alabama/Texas A&M SEC Game of the Month on Texas A&M - I have no problem laying this number on the Aggies at home against an Alabama team that is no where close to as good as their 17-13 record would indicate. The Crimson Tide are just 5-9 in their last 14 games and have not beat a conference opponent who currently has more than 5-wins inside SEC play since opening up with back-to-back wins over Texas A&M and Tenn way back in early January. Alabama has been especially bad on the road against some of the better teams of late, losing most recently at Vanderbilt by 7, LSU by 11 and at Kentucky by 15. Texas &M will not only be out for revenge, but will be playing their home finale. The Aggies are 13-2 at home and will be looking to send out seniors Kourtney Roberson and Jordan Green with a win. Texas A&M is 28-13 ATS in their last 41 home games when listed as a favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, 44-27 ATS in their last 71 when revenging a road loss of 10+ points and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after playing their previous game as a road dog. Alabama is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after 15+ games against a team with a winning record and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games played on Saturday. Take Texas A&M! |
|||||||
03-06-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers -1.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 97-106 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Hawks NBA Eastern Conf Game of the Year on Cavs - This game means a lot more to the Cavaliers than it does the Hawks. Atlanta has a comfortable 10-game lead in the east and are all but a shoe-in to take home the No. 1 seed. Cleveland on the other hand is fighting for position and will be out for double-revenge after losing each of the last two meetings. The key here is that this is a different Cavaliers team than the one the Hawks beat up on earlier in the season. Cleveland has gone 20-4 over their last 24 games and three of those losses came in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. The Cavs come in with a full day of rest and I look for them to come out an make a statement. The Hawks won 104-96 as a 8.5-point home favorite against the Rockets on Wednesday, which sets them up in a good spot to fade. Atlanta is just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 when playing with 2 days of rest and 2-13 ATS in their last 15 home games off a win where they failed to cover the spread. Adding to this is the fact that Cleveland is a dominant 10-2 ATS in their 12 games in the 2nd half against opponents who are scoring 99+ points/game and winning these contests by an average of 11.4 ppg. These trends add up to form a strong 78% (42-12) system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland! |
|||||||
03-05-15 | Morehead State v. Tennessee-Martin +3 | Top | 76-65 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
5* Ohio Valley Game of the Year on Tenn-Martin + While the Skyhawks narrowly escaped with a 75-72 overtime win at home against Morehead State in the only regular season meeting, they should not be an underdog against the Eagles in the Ohio Valley Tournament. Tennessee-Martin has a huge advantage here with rest, as they haven't played since Feb. 28, where Morehead State will be playing on no rest after yesterday's 79-74 win against SE Missouri State. The Eagles are simply being overvalued due to the fact that they come in having won 4 straight and covered each of their last 5. The key thing to keep in mind is that 4 of those wins came against bottom feeders, who finished with a losing record inside Ohio Valley action. Morehead St is a mere 10-26-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a SU win, 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Skyhawks lost their finale against conference champ Murray State and are a strong 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 77% (41-12) system in favor of the Skyhawks. Take Tennessee-Martin! |
|||||||
03-04-15 | San Diego State -4.5 v. UNLV | Top | 60-58 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
5* MWC Game of the Month on San Diego State - The Aztecs come into this game off an ugly 46-56 home loss to Boise State as a 7.5-point favorite and I believe it has them showing some great value here as a mere 4.5-point favorite against the Rebels. As you would expect with a well coached team like the Aztecs, San Diego State has responded very well coming off a loss. The Aztecs have not lost consecutive games once all season and are a strong 5-2 ATS in their last 7 off a double-digit loss at home. UNLV comes in off an impressive 69-57 win at Wyoming, but are just 3-4 over their last 7 overall and a mere 6-16 ATS in their last 22 home games after playing their last most recent contest as a home favorite. San Diego State is 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games with a total of 120 to 129.5 points and are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games after 5 straight games where they committed 14 or less turnovers. Most importantly here, UNLV is a mere 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games against strong defensive teams who are holding opponents to 39% or worse from the field. These trends combine to form a 77% (44-13) system in favor of the Aztecs. Take San Diego State! |
|||||||
03-03-15 | Houston Rockets v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 199.5 | Top | 96-104 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Rockets/Hawks UNDER These two teams combined for just 203 points in the Hawks 104-97 win at Houston in their previous meeting this season. That contest had a total of just 197 points and now we find the total sitting even higher with the Rockets playing without potential MVP James Harden, who had 18 points and 14 assists in that earlier defeat. This will be Houston's first game this season without Harden and not having him on the floor is going to have their offense struggling to get going. It also wouldn't come as a big surprise with Harden suspended for just 1-game if the rest of the Rockets players didn't take this game all that seriously. A lot is made of the Hawks efficiency offensively, which covers up the fact that this is a very good defensive team that is only allowing 95.1 ppg at home. It's also worth noting that Atlanta has scored 100+ just once in their last 6 games and have not had a game finish with a combined score of 200 or more since Feb. 9. UNDER is 24-15 in the Rockets last 39 games with a total set at 200 or more points and 39-19 in their last 58 road games when they come in having scored 100+ in 4 straight games. UNDER is also 15-4 in Houston's last 19 in the 2nd half against teams who are outscoring opponents by 6+ points/game and 20-8 in the Hawks last 28 home games in the 2nd half against teams with a winning record. Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 70-28 since 1996 in games where you have a team off a road win against a division rival (Hawks) against an opponent off a close home win by 3 points or less (Rockets). That's a 71% system in play tonight. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
03-01-15 | Pittsburgh v. Wake Forest +2 | Top | 66-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
5* Pitt/Wake Forest No Limit Top Play on Wake Forest + The Demon Deacons come in riding a 3-game losing streak and are just 3-8 over their last 11 games. Their recent 3-game slide shouldn't be all that surprising, two came against Virginia and the other was on the road at Notre Dame. Their only other home loss during the 3-8 stretch was against North Carolina. Wake Forest should not be a home dog to the Panthers, but are simply being undervalued here after losing by 36-points at home to Virginia. An ugly loss like the Demon Deacons just suffered against the Cavaliers, typically leads to a big bounce back performance, especially at home. Wake Forest is 48-30 ATS in their last 78 off a loss by 15+ points. Pittsburgh is only 5-8 on the road and just 3-8 ATS, which shows that the Panthers have consistently been overvalued away from home. The Panthers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a home win, 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 30 points or less in 2 straight games, 1-11 ATS off a win where they failed to cover the spread and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less. These trends combine to form a dynamite 94% (34-2) system in favor of the Demon Deacons. Take Wake Forest! |