Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-31-12 | New Jersey Nets +9.5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 99-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nets +9.5
The Nets had won back-to-back games on the road over Philadelphia and Cleveland before laying an egg at home against Toronto Sunday. Motivated by that loss, and a loss to Indiana on Jan. 2, expect the Nets to give the Pacers a game tonight. Indiana won the season's first meeting by 14 points but hit 13 of 21 from 3-point range in that game. Considering the Pacers are only averaging 4 3-point makes on 12 attempts per game, I don't see them going off from deep again. New Jersey has quietly won 2 of its last 3 and 4 of its last 7. It's a better team than it was when it saw Indiana in early January, and I believe we'll see that tonight. The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Pacers, meanwhile, are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. Also, the road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the points. |
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01-30-12 | Orlando Magic +7.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers | Top | 69-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Magic +7.5
Off 3 straight losses, including back-to-back blowout defeats, expect the Orlando Magic to take out their frustrations on a team they have owned. The Magic have won 3 in a row and 10 of the last 11 in this series. They have even won 6 straight in Philadelphia. In addition, teams coached by Stan Van Gundy are an impressive 13-3 ATS following a blowout loss by 20 points or more. His teams are winning by an average of 5.3 points in this situation. It is also worth noting that the Magic are 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. They are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series and 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia. Also, the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. We'll take the points. |
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01-28-12 | Wofford v. College of Charleston -5 | Top | 68-59 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Charleston -5
Motivated by 3 consecutive losses and a 17-point loss at Wofford on Jan. 5, expect an inspired effort from College of Charleston this afternoon. The Cougars have won 9 in a row at home in this series with those 9 wins coming by an average of 8.9 points. Besides home-court advantage, revenge is another key angle. Consider that Charleston is 11-3 ATS all-time under coach Cremins when out to avenge a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponents. The Cougars have won these games by an average of 7.7 points. Take Charleston. |
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01-27-12 | Toronto Raptors v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 199 | Top | 81-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
5* NBA Total of the Week on Raptors/Nuggets Under 199
Denver is the highest scoring team in the NBA but it won't be the same high-octane team with without point guard Ty Lawson, who is expected to miss with an ankle injury. The Nuggets won't get as much in transition without their tempo-pusher. Toronto is among the lowest scoring teams in the league, and it will especially have difficulty piling up points tonight with leading scorer Andrea Bargnani expected to miss with a calf injury. Plays Under on all teams (Denver in this case) when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points that have gone over the total by more than 6 points in four consecutive games, with a winning record on the season, are 45-19 since 1996. We have only seen an average of 189.3 total points scored in this situation. It is also worth noting that this system is 7-2 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Under is 16-7-1 in the Raptors' last 24 overall and 7-2 in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 11.0 points or more. The Under is also 5-1 in the Nuggets' last 6 games as a home favorite. Take the Under. |
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01-26-12 | Washington v. Arizona St +8 | Top | 60-54 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Arizona State +8 |
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01-25-12 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Golden State Warriors -3.5 | Top | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Warriors -3.5 |
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01-25-12 | Delaware v. Northeastern -5.5 | Top | 61-62 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
5* Colonial Athletic Association Game of the Year on Northeastern -5.5 |
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01-24-12 | Tennessee v. Vanderbilt -8.5 | Top | 47-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Vanderbilt -8.5 |
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01-23-12 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Golden State Warriors -1.5 | Top | 91-90 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Warriors -1.5
Off back-to-back losses, the Warriors will leave it all on the floor to get back in the win column tonight. Memphis hasn't had much luck at Golden State, where it has dropped 3 in a row and 7 of its last 9. Its last 3 road defeats in this series have come by an average of 10.7 points. The road hasn't treated the Grizzlies well. They are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Plus, the road team is just 1-6 ATS in the last 7 matchups between these two. The fact the Warriors have had a couple days to rest is also important considering they are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Take Golden State. |
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01-21-12 | Air Force +14.5 v. San Diego St | Top | 44-57 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Air Force +14.5
This is a major letdown spot for San Diego State following a big win at New Mexico. Air Force has played the Aztecs to 13 and 12-point games in the last 2 meetings, and I believe it keeps this one even closer. The Falcons are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 13.0 points or more, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games as a dog of 13.0 or more points and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games. The Falcons have proven themselves to be an outstanding wager against elite competition, going 10-1 ATS in road games when matched up against top-level teams (Win Pct. > 80%) under coach Reynolds. We'll take the points. |
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01-20-12 | Atlanta Hawks v. Philadelphia 76ers -5.5 | Top | 76-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on 76ers -5.5
Not having Al Horford in the lineup is a big deal tonight as he was the key to Atlanta's 2 wins over the 76ers last season. He combined for 35 points and 25 rebounds in those victories. The Hawks lost the game he sat out last season by 34 points. They also lost the game in which he only scored eight points on 4-of-12 shooting. Without Horford down low, the Hawks won't have an answer for Elton Brand. The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Philly is also 8-0 ATS when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season, winning by an average score of 101.3 to 85.3 in this situation. Lay the points. |
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01-18-12 | San Diego St v. New Mexico -9 | Top | 75-70 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
5* Mountain West Conference Game of the Year on New Mexico -9
I believe 16th-ranked San Diego State is overrated, and this line certainly supports that claim. The Aztecs return just one starter from last year's team while the Lobos return 4. Those 4 starters remember last season's 2 losses to SDSU well, and those 2 defeats will be the driving force behind an inspired performance tonight. New Mexico has been a tremendous investment, going 11-3 ATS in all lined games this season and winning those games by an average of 17.4 points. The fact New Mexico enters this contest off 3 consecutive wins of 10 points or more also bodes well for us considering it is 16-2 ATS in its last 18 after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more. It is winning by an average of 13.5 points in this situation. The defensive end has been the biggest reason why the Lobos have ripped off 13 straight wins. They rank 15th in the nation with just 58.0 points allowed per game. I expect the New Mexico to really dig in defensively tonight on their way to a double-digit victory. The Lobos are 10-0 ATS all-time under coach Alford after holding 4 straight opponents to 65 points or less. They are winning by an average of 16.3 points in this situation. Lay the number. |
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01-17-12 | Maryland Terrapins +12 v. Florida State | Top | 70-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
5* ACC Game of the Week (ESPNU) on Maryland +12
This is a sandwich game for Florida State, which is coming off a 90-57 upset win over North Carolina and has a matchup at Duke Saturday. Still riding high following Saturday's win and looking ahead to this Saturday's test, don't expect the Seminoles to give Maryland the respect it deserves here. Maryland has long dominated this series winning 21 of the last 26 meetings. The Terrapins are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. It is also worth noting that the Noles have been a terrible investment when laying points at home, going just 14-31-3 ATS in their last 48 games as a home favorite. It's also worth noting that Maryland head man Mark Turgeon is 17-6 ATS as an underdog of 10 points or more in all games he has coached. We'll take the points. |
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01-17-12 | Charlotte Bobcats +12.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 89-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +12.5
Motivated by yesterday's loss to Cleveland, and further fueled by a 21-point loss to Orlando on Dec. 30, expect the Bobcats to give the Magic a game tonight. Because Orlando has already handled Charlotte, it will be much more concerned with Wednesday's matchup with San Antonio and Friday's matchup with the Lakers. The Magic have won 9 straight in the series but only 3 of those wins have come by more than 12 points. History says we're on the right side tonight as well. Consider that plays on underdogs of 10 or more points - cold team having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against a hot team having won 8 or more of their last 10 games - are 170-110 ATS since 1996. This system is 30-14 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 11.0 points or more. The Magic are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite. Take the points. |
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01-16-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Boston Celtics +3.5 | Top | 97-88 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* (TNT) on Celtics +3.5
The Celtics, who have lost 4 in a row, are hearing all kinds of talk about how their age is catching up with them. I expect them to put that talk to rest momentarily as they prove that can still compete at an elite level tonight. This is a statement game for the Celtics, who need a confidence-boosting win in the worst possible way. I really like their chances of getting that win against an Oklahoma City team that hasn't been dominant on the road. The Thunder are 5-1 away from home, but 4 of those wins have come by 5 points or less. The Celtics are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Celtics have won 7 of the last 9 in this series. The Thunder are just 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Boston. Bet Boston. |
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01-14-12 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Washington Wizards +8 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Wizards +8
Motivated by last night's 120-89 loss in Philly, expect the Wizards to bounce back strong in the back half of their home-and-home with the 76ers. Philly cruised last night but it also made 12 of 18 3-point attempts. It is only averaging 6 makes in 17 attempts from beyond the arc this season. Don't expect the 3 balls to fall as easily on the road tonight. Washington has won its last 4 home games in this series. Plus, the 76ers are a lousy 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Philly won't come out with the same intensity it had last night. The Wizards, meanwhile, will leave it all on the floor in hopes of saving face following such an embarrassing loss. We'll take the points. |
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01-14-12 | Oral Roberts v. IUPU-Indianapolis +8 | Top | 81-71 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
5* Summit League Game of the Year on IUPU-Indianapolis +8
This is a tough spot for Oral Roberts playing its second road games in 3 days, especially since it is coming off a 1-point double OT win over W. Illinois. I expect the Golden Eagles to be a little hungover from that game. They have typically shown the effects of hotly contest wins, going just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a win by 6 points or less. IUPUI will be lacking no motivation here following 3 straight defeats. Plus, the Jags have made a habit of rising to the occasion against top foes. Consider that IUPUI is 9-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons. It's defeating these teams by an average score of 76.3 to 72.7. IUPUI has either won or lost by 6 points or less in 5 of the last 6 meetings in this series. We'll take the points. |
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01-13-12 | Loyola Md v. Fairfield -4.5 | Top | 66-63 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Fairfield -4.5
The Stags are better than their 8-8 record might lead you to believe. They have challenged themselves with the schedule, taking on many quality opponents and playing only 4 home games to this point. Since losing to Providence in their home opener, the Stags have won 3 straight on their home floor by an average of 15.0 points. Home court has certainly treated Fairfield well in this series. It has won 11 of its last 15 at home against the Greyhounds by an average score of 72-64. The Stags have won their last 3 at home in this series by 14, 5 and 10 points for an average winning margin of 9.7 points. The Stags are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. We'll take Fairfield in this point-spread range tonight. |
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01-12-12 | Eastern Kentucky v. Austin Peay St -5.5 | Top | 65-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
5* Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year on Austin Peay -5.5
Motivated by 4 consecutive defeats, including a 2-point loss at E. Kentucky on Dec. 29, expect Austin Peay to roll at home tonight. The Governors have had no problem in this series at home, where they've won 15 of the last 16 and 7 in a row by an average of 13.1 points. The road has given the Colonels problems all season. They have lost 5 of their last 6 away from home with those 5 losses coming by an average of 13.8 points. Austin Peay has underachieved to this point, but we should see one of its best performances of the season tonight in what is an extremely motivated spot. |
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01-11-12 | UTEP v. Tulsa -6 | Top | 48-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
5* C-USA Game of the Year on Tulsa -6
Motivated by consecutive defeats that came by a combined 3 points, expect Tulsa to bust out of its shell in a big way at home tonight. The home team has had the edge in this series lately, going 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4. Also, UTEP is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 at Tulsa. The Miners lost 4 of those 5 straight up by 1, 11, 23 and 7 points. Looking back further, Tulsa has won 10 of its last 13 at home in the series by an average score of 74 to 63. Under coach Wojcik, Tulsa has been a great investment in this point spread range. In fact, it is 13-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points during his watch, winning these games by an average of 8.3 points. Take Tulsa. |
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01-10-12 | Chicago Bulls v. Minnesota Timberwolves +7 | Top | 111-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on T-Wolves +7
Minnesota is better than its 3-6 record leads you to believe, and this line is inflated because of Chicago's 24-point win last night. The T-Wolves have already defeated the reigning NBA champion Dallas Mavericks and the San Antonio Spurs, who had the best record in the West following the 2010-11 regular season. In addition, they have played the OKC Thunder to a 4-point game and the Miami Heat to a 2-point game. The Bulls are 8-2 but have shown some susceptibility on the road, where both of their losses have happened. One of those defeats came to a Golden State team that isn't playing as well as Minnesota. The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points tonight. |
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01-06-12 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Phoenix Suns +2.5 | Top | 77-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
5* NBA *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Suns +2.5
This is a letdown spot for the Blazers, who hit the road with no rest following a big win over the Lakers. The Blazers have been a solid home team for quite some time but consistency has been an issue on the road. They enter tonight's contest at 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that the home team has had the upper hand in this series, covering the number in 5 of the last 7 meetings. Looking back further, we find the Blazers are only 7-15-2 ATS in the last 24 games in Phoenix. There's something about Friday nights for the Suns, who are an amazing 28-14 ATS when playing on the Friday night stage under coach Gentry. The Suns haven't just won these games, they've won them by an average of 7.4 points. Take Phoenix. |
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01-05-12 | Cal State Fullerton v. Cal Santa Barbara -9.5 | Top | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Bailout Blowout on Cal Santa Barbara -9.5
UCSB is much better than its 6-5 record indicates. It has taken on a tough non-conference schedule that will benefit it in Big West play. The Gauchos have been a phenomenal wager in conference action ate 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big West. The Titans, meanwhile, are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. conference foes. Fullerton hasn't been on the road in a month, which doesn't bode well for it this evening. Consider that the Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games following three or more consecutive home games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following 3 or more consecutive wins. UCSB won by 15 in last season's home meeting, and the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Lay the number. |
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01-05-12 | South Dakota State v. Southern Utah +7.5 | Top | 75-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Underdog Game of the Week on Southern Utah +7.5
Motivated by a blowout loss to IUPU-Ft. Wayne last game, and further fueled by a 5-game losing streak in this series, expect Southern Utah to give South Dakota State all it wants and more this evening. The Jackrabbits haven't played a road game since Dec. 18 and now they're up against a hungry S. Utah squad that is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 vs. the Summit league and 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 home games. Because of SDSU's success in this matchup, it will be much more concerned with Saturday's game at Oral Roberts. With the Jackrabbits looking ahead, and the Thunderbirds out for revenge, this is a good spot to grab the points with the home team. |
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01-04-12 | Auburn v. Florida State -11.5 | Top | 56-85 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Blowout Game of the Week on Florida State -11.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and last year's upset loss at Auburn, expect Florida State to take care of business in a big way this evening. Some might find it interesting that FSU is laying double digits with 2 less wins than Auburn. There is a good reason for this. The Seminoles are a better team than their record shows as they have taken on the likes of Harvard, UConn, Michigan State and Florida. The Tigers aren't as battle-tested. Seton Hall and Long Beach State are really the only two quality teams Auburn has faced and it was crushed by 20-plus in both of those contests. Auburn is just 1-3 SU and ATS when playing away from home this season with these 3 defeats coming by an average of 16.7 points. FSU, meanwhile, is 7-1 SU (4-2 ATS) at home where it has won by an average of 17.9 points. Lay the points. |
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12-22-11 | Cal Santa Barbara +11.5 v. Brigham Young | Top | 75-89 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Cal Santa Barbara +11.5
UC Santa Barbara is a better team than its 5-4 record leads you to believe. BYU, meanwhile, isn't as good as its 9-3 mark indicates. The Cougars have been getting by without Jimmer Fredette, but they'll wish they had him on the floor tonight. That's because Santa Barbara's Orlando Johnson and James Nunnally are better players than anyone BYU has. Prior to getting blown out by 20 at Cal, UCSB's only defeats were overtime losses to SDSU and UNLV and a 7-point loss to Washington. Those are 3 quality squads. The Gauchos simply didn't play well against Cal and took it on the chin, but that will motivate them here. Consider that UCSB is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games following a blowout loss by 20 points or more. It has won by an average score of 67.5 to 62.5 in this spot. It is also 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games after being held to 55 points or less, winning by an average score of 66.6 to 57.7 in this situation. BYU's 15-point win and cover over Buffalo also plays a part in this inflated line, but keep in mind the Cougars needed 13 3-point makes to get the job done. Teams don't go off like that from deep very often, which is backed up by the fact BYU is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after a game where it made 13 or more 3-point shots. Take the points as UCSB gives the Cougars all they want and more. |
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12-20-11 | Manhattan v. Towson +13 | Top | 81-62 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *TOP DOG* on Towson +13
A 10-day layoff has slowed Manhattan's momentum, giving a hungry Towson team an opportunity to pick up its first win of the season tonight. Manhattan is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games when playing with 7 or more days' rest. Towson State played a game last week so it won't be showing as much rust. It is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games when playing with 5 or 6 days' rest. The Jaspers have been a poor investment when laying points, going 18-39-1 ATS in their last 58 games as a favorite. They are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Also, plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after 8 or more consecutive losses, playing only their 2nd game in 8 days, are an impressive 90-47 ATS since 1997. These teams have been underdogs of 13.7 points on average but have lost by just 11.7 points on average. This is a good spot for the Tigers. Look for them to keep this one close. |
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12-16-11 | Cal Santa Barbara +8 v. Washington | Top | 80-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Cal Santa Barbara +8
Washington isn't the same team it was last season when it advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament. It lost three seniors from that team that accounted for nearly 50 points per game. As if those losses aren't enough of a blow, the Huskies will be without starting center Aziz N'Diaye this evening. N'Diaye, who sprained his knee last game, leads the team with 8.8 boards per contest and also chips in 7.1 points. UC Santa Barbara is an experienced team that made a trip to the Big Dance last year as well. It returns its key nucleus of Orlando Johnson, James Nunnally and Jaime Serna, who are all averaging in double figures in scoring this season. The Huskies haven't been a good investment at home, where they are typically overvalued, going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. They are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. We'll take the points. |
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12-14-11 | Princeton v. Rider +5.5 | Top | 72-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
5* 'Never Lost' NCAAB *TOP DOG* on Rider +5.5
This is Rider's last home game before playing 4 in a row on the road, and I expect it to make the most of it. The fact Rider was kicked by Florida - one of the top teams in the country - last game actually bodes well for us here. Consider that Rider is 6-0 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half since the beginning of the 2009 season. It is winning by an average score of 75.8 to 71.2 in this situation. It is also worth noting Rider is 7-0 ATS all-time under coach Dempsey as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. The Broncs aren't just covering the spread in these games, they're winning them outright by an average of 4.7 points. Princeton has played 4 true road games this season and has been an underdog of at least 5.5 points in all of them. Now, it's laying 5.5 on the road. That's a big jump, one I don't believe it will be able to cover against a motivated Rider squad that's better than it's showed so far. |
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12-10-11 | Princeton v. Drexel -5.5 | Top | 60-64 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Game of the Week on Drexel -5.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, expect Drexel to take care of business in its first home game of the season. The fact Drexel enters off a road loss to Delaware is significant because the Dragons are 17-8 ATS all-time under coach Flint when playing at home following a road loss to a conference rival. The Dragons have won these games by an average of 7.9 points. Drexel is 21-11 ATS all-time under coach Flint when playing at home following any road loss, winning in this situation by an average of 9.5 points. The Dragons are also 22-12 ATS under coach Flint in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games. This trend is 9-1 ATS since the beginning of the 2009 season and carries an average winning margin of 10.7 points. Lay the points with Drexel. |
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12-07-11 | Oklahoma State v. Missouri State -4 | Top | 72-67 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPNU) on Missouri State -4
Fueled by back-to-back losses on the road and further motivated by last season's loss at Oklahoma State, expect the Bears to have their revenge at home tonight. The Cowboys have been a downright terrible road investment as they are 21-44-2 ATS in their last 67 road games. They are 15-39-2 ATS in their last 56 games as a road underdog and 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games following three or more consecutive home games. The Cowboys are just 2-9 ATS when playing away from home since the beginning of last season, 1-8 ATS as a road underdog or pick since the start of last season and 0-7 ATS in road games after playing their last lined game as a home favorite since the beginning of last year. The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less, and we'll lay the points with them in this extremely motivated spot tonight. |
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12-02-11 | Iona v. Canisius +13.5 | Top | 69-57 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Game of the Week on Canisius +13.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses and playing at home for the first time this season, expect Canisius to give an Iona team playing its first true road contest a game. Canisius upset the Gaels at home last season with a 2-point win. It has won 3 of the last 5 at home in this series and the 2 losses during this span have come by just 1 and 5 points. The Gaels are 19-42-5 ATS in their last 66 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. They are also 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 13.0 points or more and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 13.0 or more. The Golden Griffins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 13.0 points or more. The underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these two. The Gaels are 1-8-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings at Canisius. We'll take the points. |
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11-18-11 | Winthrop +18 v. Marquette | Top | 73-95 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Game of the Week on Winthrop +18
Marquette rolled in its first two games, but it was helped out by opponents that don't do a very good job of taking card of the basketball. Mount St. Mary's turned it over 29 times and Norfolk State turned it over 25 times. Marquette faces a tougher challenge tonight against a Winthrop team that takes good care of the basketball and does a good job of controlling the tempo. Winthrop only has 23 turnovers through its first two games and committed only 10 giveaways versus Virginia Tuesday. Winthrop lost that game by 21 points, but the game was much closer than the final score indicates. The score was tied at 44 with 9:37 remaining in the second half. Winthrop has retraced its steps and knows the mistakes it made down the stretch to allow the Cavs to pull away. It will be better prepared for tonight's matchup because of that game. Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after a loss by 15 points or more and matched up against an opponent that scored 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 115-66 ATS since 1997. Teams fitting into this situation have only lost by an average of 12.7 points. Also, plays on neutral court teams underdogs after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more and matched up against an opponent that scored 80 points or more last game are 82-43 ATS since 1997. Teams fitting into this situation have only lost by an average of 7.5 points. Take Winthrop. |
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11-16-11 | Princeton +9.5 v. North Carolina State | Top | 58-60 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Princeton +9.5
Princeton showed some first-game jitters against Wagner, committing a ridiculous 28 turnovers. That performance was a blessing in disguise for the Tigers, who will no doubt be sharper tonight because of it. Princeton has been one of the better investments in recent years, especially in the underdog role, because its ability to control the tempo with its half court style of play keeps it in games. In fact, the Tigers are 34-19 ATS in all lines games since the beginning of the 2009 season. Getting more specific to tonight's unique situation, we find the Tigers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the ACC. The Tigers are also 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. In addition, NC State is not at full strength. Top returning scorer C.J. Leslie doesn't return until Saturday. Take the points. |
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06-12-11 | Dallas Mavericks v. Miami Heat -4.5 | Top | 105-95 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* (Gm 6, ABC) on Heat -4.5
I can't see Dallas winning three in a row in this series. The Heat are just too good. Plus, they'll have the home crowd behind them and they'll be playing with a sense of desperation in this do-or-die Game 6. Teams tend to play their best when desperate. Miami played well enough to win Game 5 and led by 4 in the fourth down the stretch. The Heat likely would have held on to win that game had Dallas not continued its flukish 3-point shooting performance. The Mavs average 8 3-point makes on 37% shooting for the season but shot a ridiculous 13 of 19 (68.4%) from deep in Game 5. With Miami stepping up the defensive intensity and with a change of venue for Dallas, I can't see the three balls falling the same way here. That gives Miami the edge. The Heat are 9-1 at home in these playoffs. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Expect Miami to take care of business tonight to extend the series. Lay the points. |
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06-09-11 | Miami Heat +1.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 103-112 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* (Gm 5, ABC) on Heat +1.5
Despite outplaying Dallas for the majority of each game, the series is tied 2-2. After feeling like they gave away Game 4, you can bet Miami will show up tonight. Miami hasn't dropped consecutive games since early March, winning after all seven of their most recent losses by an average of 9.7 points. Miami has been exceptional in bounce back spots and I have no doubts we will see a much better performance from LeBron James tonight. James scored only eight points on 11 shots in Game 4. It was the first time in 90 career playoff games that he failed to reach double-digits in points. Despite scoring nearly 19 points below his average, the Heat were right in the game until the end. That shows you how good this team really is. The two-time MVP will bounce back tonight and I expect him to be the difference. The Mavericks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games while the Heat are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Heat are also 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 games in Dallas. Take Miami. |
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06-07-11 | Miami Heat v. Dallas Mavericks -140 | Top | 83-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Game of the Year (ABC) on Mavericks pk
The Mavs are 7-2 at home in these playoffs and haven't lost back-to-back home games, provided there weren't any road games in between, since early January when Dirk Nowitzki was out with injury. Miami, meanwhile, has not won back-to-back road games, provided there were no home games in between, in these playoffs. The Heat split the first pair of back-to-back road games in Philadelphia, Boston and Chicago and I fully expect this trend to continue. This is a must-win game for the Mavs and they won't be lacking any confidence at home knowing they only lost by 2 points in Game 2 despite a lackluster performance. The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss, Mavericks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. In addition, plays on home teams when the line is +3 to -3, provided they are off an upset loss and both they and their opponent carry winning percentages between 60% and 75%, are 51-19 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 4.6 points. I'm confident Dallas will be able to dig down deep just like they did in Game 2 and the result should be even more convincing on its home floor. I like the Mavs at -3 but really love them to win this game, so we'll take them on the money line tonight. |
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06-05-11 | Miami Heat +2.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 88-86 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* (Gm 3, ABC) on Heat +2.5
Completely disgusted by the way they collapsed down the stretch in Game 2, expect the Heat to come storming back tonight. Consider that Miami hasn't dropped consecutive games since early March, winning after all six of their most recent losses by an average of 11.7 points. In other words, this is a team that responds. The Heat have been very good on the road down the stretch, going 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games as a result. It is also worth noting that the road team is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings in this matchup and the Heat are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Dallas. With the exception of the last 7 minutes of Game 2, Miami's defense has stifled the Mavs. Expect the Heat to really bring the "D" tonight as they take Game 3 outright. |
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06-02-11 | Dallas Mavericks +5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 95-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* on Mavericks +5
Dallas still hasn't gotten over its loss to Miami in the NBA Finals 5 years ago. Its Game 1 defeat was a reminder of that pain and those haunting memories will serve as the fuel for a Game 2 victory. Right away, I like the fact that Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a loss. I also like that the road team is 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings and Dallas is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 meetings in Miami. In addition, Dallas is 13-3 ATS in all playoff games this season, 20-7 ATS as a road underdog this season and 17-5 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season. I went against the Mavs in Game 1 because I didn't think they'd be ready for Miami's defensive intensity, but now they've seen it. Look for Dallas to really push the ball tonight to get easy looks in transition and to take advantage of their depth while keeping Miami from digging in with its half-court defense. Take the Mavs and the points. |
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05-25-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Dallas Mavericks -6.5 | Top | 96-100 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference Playoffs Game of the Year on Mavericks -6.5
After blowing a 15-point lead with under 5 minutes remaining in Game 4 that would have tied the series, it will be extremely difficult for the Thunder to get back up, especially on the road. Expect the focused, experienced Mavs to close out the series in impressive fashion tonight. Last series, the Mavs came from behind late to win Game 3 to put the Lakers on the brink of elimination. They wasted no time ending that series, completely crushing LA 122-86 in Game 4. Dallas is 13-1 ATS in all playoff games this season and 8-1 ATS when leading in a playoff series this season. The Mavericks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. It will be too much Dirk Nowitzki for the Thunder to handle yet again tonight. Lay the points. |
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05-22-11 | Chicago Bulls +5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 85-96 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Bulls +5
The No. 1 seed in the East, which is 4-1 against Miami this season, is showing excellent value in the underdog role. The Bulls fell in Game 2 but haven't lost back-to-back games since Feb. 5 and 7. The Bulls are an impressive 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog, 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games as a road underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Bulls are also 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a SU loss and 29-10 ATS in their last 39 games following an ATS loss. In addition, Chicago is a strong 13-3 ATS when coming off an upset loss this season. It is winning by an average score of 100.1 to 89.4 in this situation. I went large on Miami in Game 2, and it paid off, but the Bulls showed me something. For as poorly as they played, they were right in the game until LeBron James took over late. We can expect the Bulls to play much better in this bounce back spot, which means they should have an excellent chance to pull off the upset. Take the points. |
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05-21-11 | Dallas Mavericks v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 201 | Top | 93-87 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
5* Game 3 "Total" Dominator (ESPN) on Mavericks/Thunder UNDER 201
Neither team played particularly well on the defensive end in Games 1 and 2, but I expect that to change tonight. With each team looking to take control of the series, we should see more intensity and more heart on the defensive end this evening. Consider that plays Under when the total is 200 to 209.5 on all teams looking to avenge a home loss to an opponent, good team winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, are 70-32 the last 5 seasons. In addition, the Under is 4-1 in the Mavericks' last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 5-1 in the Thunder's last 6 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Under is also 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams in Oklahoma City. Take the Under. |
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05-18-11 | Miami Heat +2.5 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 85-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
5* 2011 NBA Game of the Year (TNT) on Heat +2.5
Motivated by an embarrassing 21-point defeat in Game 1, expect the Heat to even the series tonight. Consider that plays on any team off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, a good team (60% to 75% winning percentage) playing a team with a winning record, are 46-23 (67%) ATS the last 5 seasons. It is also worth noting that Miami is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games following a road blowout loss of 20 points or more. In addition, plays against favorites that are leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75% winning percentage) playing a team with a winning record, are 51-23 (69%) ATS since 1996. LeBron James managed just 15 points in Game 1. Expect a much more aggressive game from him on the offensive end and for Miami to reap the reward. Heat win this one outright. |
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05-17-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder +6 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 112-121 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Thunder +6
Expect Dallas to show some rust this evening having had 8 full days off. Don't be surprised if that rust costs them a Game 1 victory against a youthful Thunder squad that is playing a lot better than the Lakers did last round. The Thunder are showing terrific value catching this many points considering they are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Thunder are also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. The Thunder also have the edge in terms of head-to-head action. Oklahoma City is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings and 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Dallas. Dallas easily won the battle of benches against the Lakers but won't have it as easy against an OKC club that brings in Harden, Collison, Mohammed and Maynor. Plus, starters Durant and Westbrook pose major matchup problems for the Dallas defense. Having just wrapped up their series Sunday, expect the Thunder to be in a better rhythm this evening. Take the points. |
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05-15-11 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 | Top | 90-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Thunder -6.5
After blowing a double-digit lead in Game 6, expect the Thunder to bounce back strong at home in Game 7 to take the series. I especially expect a big game from Kevin Durant after one of his worst performances of the season. Right away, you have to like the fact that home teams are 21-7 in Game 7s over the past decade. Also, OKC has been incredibly resilient. It is 42-22 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. It is also worth noting that the Thunder are 46-31 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons and 42-24 ATS in their last 66 games when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent. The Grizzlies are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Thunder are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games against the Grizzlies. Also, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Pound the Thunder. |
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05-13-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 | Top | 83-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Game of the Year on Grizzlies -1.5
Off back-to-back defeats, including a brutally embarrassing loss at Oklahoma City Wednesday, and staring elimination square in the face, expect the Grizzlies to rise to the occasion this evening. The Grizzlies are an impressive 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss and an unbeaten 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after being held to less than 75 points in their previous game. In addition, Memphis is 10-0 ATS after having lost 3 of its last 4 games this season. It is winning by an average of 7.2 points in this situation. That's not all. Memphis is 13-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses this season, 14-5 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent - this season and 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. These trends point to one thing - Memphis is incredibly resilient. Expect the Grizzlies to extend this series with a big home win tonight. Lay the points. |
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05-11-11 | Boston Celtics +7.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 87-97 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* (TNT) on Celtics +7.5
The Celtics will not go down without a fight. It's just not in their personality. Game 4 went right down to the wire and I fully expect this one to as well. I don't believe odds makers are showing the defending East champs the respect they deserve with this line. Under coach Rivers, Boston is a tremendous 40-20 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. The Celtics are only losing these contests by an average of 5.2 points. Also under Rivers, Boston is an outstanding 50-31 ATS in road games when out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent. It is only losing these games by an average of 2.8 points. Over the last 3 seasons, Boston is 25-12 ATS in road games when out to avenge a loss to an opponent. It is actually winning these games by an average of 3.2 points. Boston had an excellent opportunity to win Game 4 without its big 4 playing up to its potential. You can also say that Miami needed overtime to win that game despite its big 3 playing as well as it can possibly play. Boston's stars will play better tonight while it will be a tough encore for LeBron James and company. We'll take the points as Boston shows the heart that has made it a champion. |
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05-10-11 | Atlanta Hawks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 181 | Top | 83-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoff "Total" Dominator on Hawks/Bulls Under 181
After giving up 100 points on nearly 50% shooting in Game 4, expect the best defensive team in the league to tighten the screws in Game 5. The total score should easily find its way Under the number as a result. After giving up 103 points in Game 1, the Bulls dug in and only allowed Atlanta to score 73 points on 33.8% shooting in Game 2. We saw just 159 total points scored in that contest and I'm expecting another low-scoring one here. Consider that Chicago is a perfect 7-0 Under this season when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent of 10 points or more. In addition, the Under is 5-0 in the Hawks' last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points and 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the Under. |
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05-09-11 | Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics | Top | 98-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Heat pk
A heroic performance by Rajon Rondo helped Boston take Game 3, but that performance will be a tough encore. The Celtics, which are extremely banged up, had 3 days to rest up and get treatment before Game 3. Tackling Game 4 with just a day of rest will be a much tougher task. Rondo is the engine of the Boston Celtics and unfortunately for them won't be close to full strength if he is able to go. The Celtics have been a terrible investment following a win. In fact, they are 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 games following a victory and 17-44-1 ATS in their last 62 games following a win of more than 10 points. Boston is just 5-13 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season. In addition, plays on road teams - good team outscoring their opponents by 3-plus points/game - after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 88-49 ATS the last 5 seasons. The youthful Rondo really had to carry the veteran Celtics in Game 2, which was played on 1 days' rest like this one. Boston will need him to carry them in Game 4 but his injury won't allow it. Expect Miami's younger Big 3 to have big games tonight. Take Miami. |
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05-07-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 200.5 | Top | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
5* 2011 NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER 200.5
After back-to-back high-scoring games in this series, expect both teams to make the proper adjustments at the defensive end to ensure a lower scoring affair. It bodes extremely well for us that plays Under on home teams when the total is 200 to 209.5 - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season, are 42-14 the last 5 seasons. Despite a slower pace in Game 2, we saw the total score go over the number because of Oklahoma City's hot shooting. The Thunder were 8 of 14 from 3-point range. This is significant because OKC is 10-1 Under in road games after a game where it made 50% of it 3 point shots or better over the last 2 seasons. We are only seeing an average of 184.1 total points scored in this situation. The Under is 7-3-1 in the Thunder's last 11 road games and 4-1-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Under is also 9-3 in the Grizzlies' last 12 games as a favorite. This game will be a lot more intense than the 2 we saw in OKC as each team tries to take control of the series. That intensity will especially show up on the defensive end. Take the Under. |
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05-06-11 | Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 92-98 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Lakers +2.5
Three teams have come back to win a 7-game series after losing the first two at home, but no team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit. Knowing the daunting history, I expect the two-time defending champs to leave it all on the floor tonight. Dallas isn't out of the woods yet. The last time the Lakers lost the first two games of a playoff series in the 2008 Finals, they rebounded to win Game 3. Also, the Mavericks famously blew a 2-0 lead to the Miami Heat in the 2006 NBA Finals. The Lakers will be without Ron Artest, who was suspended for his hard foul on J.J. Barea in Game 2, but they are better off giving big minutes to Lamar Odom because of the matchup problems he poses on the offensive end. It is worth noting that plays on road teams facing a point spread of +3 to -3 that are out to avenge a loss to an opponent of 10 points or more, provided they check in off an upset loss, are 38-15 (71.7%) against the number the last five seasons. In addition, the Lakers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games. Also, under coach Jackson, LA is 27-14 ATS in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) in the 2nd half of the season. Expect Kobe Bryant to will his team to victory tonight. |
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05-04-11 | Atlanta Hawks v. Chicago Bulls -8.5 | Top | 73-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Bulls -8.5
Down 0-1 at home, we saw the sense of urgency Oklahoma City played with last night. I expect Chicago to play with a similar level of desperation on its way to a win and cover in Game 2. The Bulls have been a resilient bunch all season. They are 27-10 ATS in their last 37 games following an ATS loss and 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games following a SU defeat. Chicago is also 11-3 ATS following an upset loss this season, responding to win by 10.4 points on average in these spots. Atlanta is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 playoff road games, losing these contests by an average of 12.4 points. It is also 3-14 ATS in its last 17 second round playoff games, losing these by an average of 13.6 points. Prior to a Game 1, Chicago had defeated Atlanta by 18 and 31 points in consecutive games. Chicago's defense was suffocating in those contests and I expect another superb defensive effort to get the job done tonight. |
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05-03-11 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 197.5 | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoff Total of the Week on Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 197.5
Zach Randolph was 12 of 22 in Game 1 and 8 of his makes were from at least 10 feet away from the basket. Marc Gasol was 9 of 11 from the field and was 4 of 4 on jumpers from at least 14 feet. I just don't see either player shooting as well tonight, especially with OKC clamping down on the defensive end. The Grizzlies also got 23 points off of 18 Thunder turnovers in Game 1. And they scored 22 second-chance points off 17 offensive boards. Taking care of the basketball and doing a better job of blocking out will easily shave points off the total score this evening. Since coach Brooks has been at the controls, OKC is 19-8 Under in home games when out to avenge a double-digit defeat to an opponent. We have seen just 195.2 total points scored on average in this situation. In other words, Brooks has done a great job of making defensive adjustments. With better effort and a few minor adjustments, this one should finish well under the number tonight. |
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05-01-11 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 | Top | 114-101 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Thunder -6.5
This is a very tough spot for the Grizzlies as they are being asked to start a new series on the road on 1 days' rest and preparation time following the biggest moment in franchise history. In other words, get ready for a letdown. Oklahoma City will not be taking the Grizzlies lightly either after losing 3 of 4 to them in the season series. But we shouldn't read too much into the regular season meetings as Kendrick Perkins didn't play in any of those games. He has the strength and experience to defend both Gasol and Randolph. Expect him to start on Gasol, which allows Serge Ibaka, the NBA |
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04-28-11 | Dallas Mavericks +4.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Game of the Year on Mavericks +4.5
Portland is lucky to still be playing. Dallas had the Blazers down 67-44 in the third quarter in Game 4 and let them off the hook. With a chance to close out the series, you can bet Dallas won't let that happen again. "We know what we gotta do. We're a veteran team. If we don't have to play a Game 7, then we don't want to play a Game 7," forward Shawn Marion said. The Mavericks are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games while the Blazers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6. Plus, Dallas is the best road team in the NBA this season and has been deadly in the road underdog role. In fact, it is 15-6 ATS as a road underdog this season and 13-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season. It is winning these games by an average score of 97.5 to 95.9. The Trail Blazers, meanwhile, are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 13-32 ATS in their last 45 home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Dallas has also thrived following a double-digit win. Consider that the Mavs are 16-6 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season, winning in this situation by an average score of 99.2 to 93.0. Dallas is the more talented and deeper team, and it will be driven tonight by the haunting memories of recent first round exits. Take the Mavs. |
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04-24-11 | Orlando Magic -125 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 85-88 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Magic pk
Expect the Magic to bounce back strong in Game 4 to even the series. The Magic's Richardson and the Hawks' Pachulia will both miss Sunday's game with suspensions stemming from an altercation late in Game 3. I believe the Hawks will actually miss Pachulia more. The 6-11, 275-pound center has done the best job of defending Dwight Howard. I just don't see the combination of Jason Collins and little-used Etan Thomas being able to contain Howard, which means the Hawks may have to double him more. That also means Orlando will get more open 3-point looks. Going to the numbers, we find that plays on all teams when the line is +3 to -3 off an upset loss, provided that team has a winning percentage between 60% and 75% and is playing a team with a winning record, are 174-113 ATS since 1996. The Magic are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less while the Hawks are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 playoff games as an underdog. Take the Magic. |
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04-23-11 | Dallas Mavericks +4 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 82-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Mavs +4
Dallas is the hands down better team. Its starting lineup is more talented and it's bench is far better. This is not the same Dallas team that has bowed out early in recent NBA playoffs. Expect the Mavs to flex their muscles with a Game 4 victory here. Dallas is 14-6 ATS as a road underdog this season, including 12-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season, winning these games by an average score of 98.4 to 96.6. The Mavs are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 or less and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite. What a luxury Dallas has to bring Jason Terry, Peja Stojakovic, Brendan Haywood and Jose Barea off the bench. Expect them to be the difference in Game 4. |
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04-19-11 | Atlanta Hawks v. Orlando Magic -8.5 | Top | 82-88 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Week on Magic -8.5
Right away I love the fact that plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing with double revenge (straight losses to an opponent), provided their foe is coming off an upset win over a division rival, are 39-14 (73.6%) ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 11.7 points. In addition, Orlando is 15-5 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more under coach Van Gundy. The Magic are winning by an average of 14.0 points in this situation. Atlanta is just 6-20 ATS in its last 26 road games in the NBA playoffs, losing these contest by an average of 12.9 points. The Hawks are also 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 playoff games as an underdog while the Magic are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite. It's desperation time for the Magic as they can't afford to fall behind 0-2. Meanwhile, Atlanta already feels like it has accomplished what it set out to do - steal away homecourt advantage. Orlando will want this one more. Lay the points. |
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04-18-11 | Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 73-94 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on 76ers +9.5
After falling in Game 1 by 8 points, the 76ers will up their level of intensity tonight to try to steal away the homecourt advantage. Philly is the healthier team right now as Miami's Erick Dampier, Mike Miller and Dwayne Wade are all listed as questionable for tonight's game. Wade is dealing with migraines, which will make it very difficult for him to play to his All-Star standards if he is able to go. After Saturday's defeat, coach Doug Collins and veteran Elton Brand talked a lot about driving the ball aggressively to the basket to get to the foul line. The 76ers haven't done a very good job of that against Miami this season but I expect them to make an extra effort to do so this evening. The execution of this game plan will go a long way toward getting us the cover. Philly improved to 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games when playing with triple revenge (3 straight losses to an opponent) with its Game 1 cover and this trend is still in play tonight. The 76ers are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog. The Heat, meanwhile, are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the 76ers. |
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04-17-11 | Denver Nuggets +6 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 103-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Nuggets +6
Motivated by back-to-back April defeats to the Thunder, expect Denver to give its division rivals all they want and more tonight. The Nuggets have been a tremendous investment recently, especially when on the road and catching points. The Nuggets are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games, 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. It is also worth noting that the Thunder are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. This is the first time this Thunder teams has been expected to win in the postseason. With that comes pressure. The Nuggets won't be feeling nearly as much pressure and should be able to play free and easy as a result. Take the points as Denver has an excellent chance to win Game 1. |
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04-16-11 | Atlanta Hawks +8.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 103-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Hawks +8.5
Much has been made about Atlanta's 0-6 finish, but it didn't really have much incentive as it was locked into the #5 seed. Also, it shouldn't be ignored that the Hawks played the Spurs to a 7-point game and the Heat to an 8-point game during this skid. Atlanta, which won 3 of 4 against Orlando this season with its lone loss coming by 4 points, has plenty of motivation in this series. You see, Orlando completely embarrassed the Hawks in a 4-game sweep in last year's playoffs. Atlanta was abused from 3-point range in that series, allowing the Magic to make an average of 11.0 3-point shots per game. But consider that the Hawks enter the playoffs allowing opponents to shoot just 33.8 percent from deep (4th in the NBA), and they have held the Magic to 19 of 84 (22.6 percent) from three-point range this season. In addition, the Magic are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. Take the points. |
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04-06-11 | New York Knicks v. Philadelphia 76ers -4.5 | Top | 97-92 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on 76ers -4.5
Off back-to-back losses, including a butt-kicking at Boston last night, and a double-digit loss to New York in the most recent meeting, the 76ers will be extremely motivated when they hit their home floor this evening. Since losing 9 of 10, the Knicks have managed to bounce back with 4 straight victories. Forgive me if I'm not impressed. They needed OT to beat the Magic in a game in which Jameer Nelson did not play. After that, wins over New Jersey, Cleveland and Toronto won't impress anyone. The Knicks are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last 5 road games. They are also are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest. Philly is 25-12 at home on the season with a 6.0-point average margin of victory, and it has been deadly in bounce back spots. The 76ers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Here's the clincher: Philly is 10-2 ATS when out to avenge a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent this season, winning in this situation by an average of 8.7 points. Take the 76ers. |
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04-05-11 | Golden State Warriors v. Portland Trail Blazers -10.5 | Top | 108-87 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Trail Blazers -10.5
With a chance to clinch a spot in the playoffs, the Blazers won't take the Warriors lightly tonight, especially since they lost to Golden State in the most recent meeting. The Warriors have lost 8 in a row on the road with those losses coming by an average of 13.4 points. 5 of their last 6 road defeats have all come by 11 points or more. The Blazers have won 9 straight at the Rose Garden by an average of 14.4 points. It is also worth noting that the Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Blazers have a huge advantage on the defensive end and in the paint with Warriors missing the inside presence of Andris Biedrins. Expect a big night from LaMarcus Aldridge and for Portland to dominate the glass as they get the win and cover here. |
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04-02-11 | Kentucky -2 v. Connecticut | Top | 55-56 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
5* Never Lost Final Four *BEST BET* on Kentucky -2
Respect is given to this UConn team, which kicked Kentucky in November and has caught fire late in the season, but that isn't enough to pull me off the Wildcats. Kentucky was a young team still finding its way when these schools first met. It is a much different team now, one with toughness and poise. One that has defeated No. 1 overall seed Ohio State and No. 2 seed North Carolina. The Wildcats were able to avenge an earlier season loss to North Carolina in the Elite Eight, and that should come as no surprise. After all, Kentucky is 8-1 ATS when playing away from home in a revenge spot under coach Calipari, winning in this situation by an average of 11.7 points. If playing away from home and out to avenge an upset loss, this trend tightens up to a perfect 6-0 ATS with an average winning margin of 12.1 points. With great size, length and athletic ability, the Wildcats held Ohio State, which ranked 2nd in the country in field goal percentage, to just 32.8 percent shooting. This is what the Wildcats are capable of and this is what I believe we'll see this evening. Take Kentucky. |
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04-01-11 | Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 v. New Orleans Hornets | Top | 93-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +1.5
The Grizzlies are in great form, and I love their chances tonight against a New Orleans team minus leading scorer David West. Having lost both previous meetings to New Orleans this season, the Grizzlies will be lacking no motivation here. The Grizzlies are 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. They are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 versus divisional foes, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. The Hornets are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less, 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. In addition, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take Memphis. |
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03-30-11 | Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 211.5 | Top | 91-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA "Total" Game of the Week on Warriors/Grizzlies UNDER 211.5
The Warriors and Grizzlies have combined for at least 213 points in each of their last 8 meetings and yet the books opened with an over/under line of 210. In addition, Golden State has been Over this number in each of its last 4 games and Memphis was Over it in its last game. I smell a rat. Naturally, the public is all over the Over, which is precisely where the books want it. I won't hesitate to go against the grain, avoiding what is certainly a bookmaker trap. Golden State has the perception of a high-scoring team, but it hasn't been nearly as good offensively on the road. As a result, the Warriors are 24-14 Under in road games this season. They are also 37-23 Under in a road game when the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 2 seasons. It is also to our benefit that the Warriors are coming off a tiring overtime game last night. That's because the Under is 5-1 in the Warriors' last 6 games when playing without a day of rest. Also, the Under is 16-3 when the Warriors are playing their 2nd road game in 2 days over the last 2 seasons. Also, Memphis has held 4 of its last 5 foes under the century mark. It has also held its opponents to an average of 87.3 points in its last 4 home games. With 2 full days of rest to gear up for this one, I expect the Grizzlies to be very successful on the defensive end against a tired Warriors squad. We'll pound the Under tonight. |
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03-26-11 | Butler v. Florida -4 | Top | 74-71 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
5* Never Lost Elite 8 *BEST BET* on Florida -4
The Gators were clearly better than BYU, but they allowed the Cougars to hang around by shooting just 45% (10 of 22) from the free throw line. That's a large departure from their season average of 66.4%. Fortunately, history tells us that terrible performance from the foul line will have the Gators very focused today. Consider that the Gators have never lost under coach Donovan when playing away from home following a game in which shot 53 percent or worse from the charity stripe. Florida is a perfect 8-0 ATS in this situation with an average winning margin of 13.0 points. In addition, the Gators are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Butler is gritty and tough, but that won't be enough against this superior Florida squad. The Bulldogs have overachieved to this point and Florida has the right combination of size and athleticism to take them out. Lay the number. |
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03-25-11 | Virginia Commonwealth v. Florida State -4 | Top | 72-71 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
5* Sweet 16 Game of the Year on Florida State -4
FSU is big, long, athletic and deep, and these things help make it a tenacious defensive team. FSU's defense is currently hitting on all cylinders, having held its first 2 NCAA tournament opponents to 31.4% and 31.7% shooting respectively. On the season, the Seminoles rank No. 1 in the country in field goal percentage defense, holding their foes to just 36.0% shooting. The defense should be even better tonight as Chris Singleton, voted the ACC defensive player of the year by league coaches, is coming off his two best practices since breaking his right foot. He has gotten his feet wet and his confidence back in FSU's first 2 games. Now, he's ready to make even more of an impact this evening. Going along with playing great defense, FSU is an outstanding rebounding team, averaging 5.0 more boards per game than its opponent. This bodes well for us considering VCU is just 2-9 ATS versus good rebounding teams (outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game) this season. VCU is also 1-8 ATS after 2 straight wins by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Seminoles are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Defense is something we can count on out of Florida State. The Noles bring it every night, and I expect it to be the difference here. Lay the points. |
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03-24-11 | Butler v. Wisconsin -4.5 | Top | 61-54 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
5* Sweet 16 *BEST BET* on Wisconsin -4.5
Butler used up the last of its 9 lives against Pitt. After back-to-back miraculous victories, the defending national runner-ups are primed for a major letdown. It will be extremely difficult for the Bulldogs to pull off another upset here. Butler has been able to take advantage of teams beating themselves by taking bad shots, turning the ball over, missing free throws, etc, but Wisconsin doesn |
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03-23-11 | San Antonio Spurs v. Denver Nuggets -4 | Top | 112-115 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Nuggets -4
The fact that Tim Duncan is out is beside the point. The Nuggets have lost each of the season's first 3 meetings with the San Antonio, which means they will be extremely hungry tonight. Trading Carmelo Anthony has lifted a big weight off Denver's shoulders. The team was clearly distracted early on when his future with the team was still up in the air. Now that he's gone Denver is playing free and easy, especially at home. The Nuggets are a perfect 6-0 at home since the All-Star break with those 6 wins coming by an average of 23.3 points. Ty Lawson is really looking to push the ball now that he is running the show, and Denver's defense has picked up. The Nuggets are only allowing 94.7 points per game since the Melo trade - 8.4 below their season mark. The Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning SU record and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. With a big cushion in the West, the Spurs can afford to be very cautious down the stretch. Denver, meanwhile, would like to jump up and steal the #4 seed from Oklahoma City. "They (OKC) probably have too much of a gap on us," coach George Karl said. "But let's try to scare them. You never know in basketball." Lay the points. |
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03-20-11 | Virginia Commonwealth v. Purdue -9 | Top | 94-76 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Purdue -9
VCU has strung together back-to-back impressive performances against USC and Georgetown, but its Cinderella run comes to an end here. The Rams have reached the round of 32 because of the great equalizer - the 3-point short. They were +24 points from beyond the arc against USC and +21 against Georgetown. Purdue is one of the elite defensive teams in the country. It held its 1st round opponent (St. Peter's) to 23.8% (5 of 21) from three-point range, and I expect it to force the Rams into much more difficult looks as well. Double-digit wins are nothing out of the ordinary for the Boilermakers. Of their 26 victories, 22 have come by at least 10 points. This is a quality VCU team, but it isn't as good as some of the teams we've seen in the dance in recent years. Purdue, meanwhile, boasts a very experienced and talented squad. Expect the Boilermakers to do an excellent job of defending the three and for JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore to be too much for the Rams to handle. Lay the points. |
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03-19-11 | Kansas State v. Wisconsin -3 | Top | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
5* Big Dance *BEST BET* on Wisconsin -3
K-State had its fun a year ago when it made a deep run in the dance. Now it's Wisconsin's turn. Motivated by last year's poor performance in the second round, I expect Wisconsin to cruise into the Sweet 16. K-State isn't as good as it was a season ago when Jacob Pullen benefited from partner in crime Denis Clemente. The Badgers, meanwhile, are better due to the emergence of Jordan Taylor. Wisconsin has more offensive balance and it is the superior defensive team. The Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Big 12, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Wildcats are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a win, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less and 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog. Lay the points. |
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03-18-11 | Virginia Commonwealth v. Georgetown -5.5 | Top | 74-56 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament *BEST BET* on Georgetown -5.5
Motivated by 4 straight losses to close out the season, expect this experienced Georgetown team to bounce back strong in round 1 of the dance. The Hoyas will also draw motivation from last year's shocking loss to Ohio in the round of 64. Georgetown should also get a boost from the return of Chris Wright. They've been without his 13.1 ppg since Feb. 23. Georgetown has proven that it is a force to be reckoned with on a neutral floor. The Hoyas, in fact, are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as a favorite. VCU is coming off a big win over USC in Wednesday's play-in game and that bodes extremely well for us here. Consider that the Rams are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. Lay the points. |
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03-17-11 | Wofford +8.5 v. Brigham Young | Top | 66-74 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament Round 1 Game of the Year on Wofford +8.5
BYU clearly isn't the same team without Brandon Davies, going just 2-3 ATS with a pair or blowout losses since his suspension. I believe the Cougars would have their hands full with Wofford even if Davies was in the lineup. Wofford brings back 4 starters from a team that played Wisconsin to a 4-point game in the first round of last year's NCAA tournament. That loss is all the motivation the Terriers need to give the Cougars a run for the money. BYU has been a terrible investment in tournament play. In fact, it is just 4-13 ATS in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons. The Cougars are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 NCAA Tournament games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. The Terriers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points, 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning SU record. Take the points. |
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03-12-11 | San Diego St -2 v. Brigham Young | Top | 72-54 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
5* MWC Game of the Year on San Diego State -2
BYU is not the same team without Brandon Davies, which has me confident that San Diego State can avenge its 2 previous defeats to the Cougars this season. The Aztecs are an impressive 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Cougars are a dismal 30-61-2 ATS in their last 93 games as an underdog and 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win. Fredette had to go off big time for the Cougars to make the title game, and I don't see SDSU letting that happen here, especially since the Aztecs allowed him to score 40-plus during the season. Motivated by those two prior defeats, expect the third time to be a charm for SDSU. |
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03-11-11 | Oregon v. Washington -9 | Top | 51-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
5* Pac-10 Game of the Year on Washington -9
Oregon has strung together a couple wins in the Pac-10 tourney, but I believe the Ducks will run out of gas tonight. Riding high off a blowout win over UCLA, Oregon is primed for a major letdown. The Huskies got a big monkey off their back by finally defeating rival Washington State. Now, I expect them to have their revenge against Oregon. Washington defeated the Ducks by 18 points in the season's first meeting and then got beat overlooking them in the next matchup. That loss will serve as the driving force behind a comfortable win tonight. Going to the numbers, we find that plays on favorites out to avenge a road loss to an opponent, playing their 2nd away game in 3 days, are 40-15 ATS the last 3 seasons. In addition, Oregon is 4-12 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as an underdog. Lay the points. |
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03-10-11 | New York Knicks v. Dallas Mavericks -5.5 | Top | 109-127 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Mavericks -5.5
This is a letdown spot for the Knicks and a bounce back spot for the Mavs. It will be difficult for the Knicks to bring as much energy needed tonight following such an emotional victory on Melo's buzzer-beater last night. Dallas, meanwhile, will have no trouble getting up for this one after blowing a late 7-point lead and the game to New Orleans. For the books to favor the Mavs by this many points following 4 ATS defeats in a row, knowing the amount of backers New York has, I have to believe odds makers are confident in Dallas tonight. And why shouldn't they be? Dallas has won 16 of 18 meetings in this series, and it holds a big edge in the backcourt with Chauncey Billups still likely out. Dallas is 20-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Lay the points. |
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03-08-11 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Atlanta Hawks +5.5 | Top | 101-87 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks +5.5
Motivated by back-to-back home losses to Oklahoma City and New York, and further motivated by a 24-point loss to the Lakers last month, expect Atlanta to give LA all it wants and more tonight. Because LA crushed the Hawks 2 weeks back, it will be much more interested in upcoming games against Miami, Dallas and Orlando. Atlanta has won 3 straight at home against the Lakers with the last 2 wins coming by double digits. In fact, the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. In addition, plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 4 or more consecutive unders, are 55-26 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are only winning by an average of 2.9 points. Also, the Lakers are 2-14 ATS after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons, losing these games by an average score of 96.8 to 95.4. Pound the Hawks. |
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03-05-11 | Nevada v. New Mexico State -5.5 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
5* WAC Game of the Year on New Mexico State -5.5
The Aggies are a much better team than their record might lead you to believe. They are especially tough at home, where they are 6-1 in league play. That lone loss came by a narrow margin to league champ Utah State Wednesday. That was New Mexico State's 4th straight defeat, and it will have the Aggies extremely motivated here on senior night. New Mexico State will be further motivated by an embarrassing 19-point loss at Nevada earlier this season. All 6 of the Aggies' WAC home wins have come by at least 8 points. They should have no trouble covering this number against a Nevada squad that is just 3-12 away from home this season. The Aggies are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Wolf Pack are just 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games versus a team with a losing SU record. Lay the points. |
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03-04-11 | Chicago Bulls +2 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 89-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week (ESPN) on Bulls +2
After such an emotionally and physically draining comeback victory over the Miami Heat last night, the Magic won't have enough left in the tank to conquer this hungry Bulls squad. Chicago knows how Miami feels, having blown a 17-point halftime lead against Atlanta Wednesday. That loss will have the Bulls extremely motivated this evening. This is an ideal spot to go against Orlando since its starters logged so many minutes last night. In fact, the Magic are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. It hasn't been good practice to fade Chicago following a defeat. That's because the Bulls are an impressive 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss. The Bulls are also 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog and 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that Chicago is a perfect 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Great spot for Chicago. |
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03-02-11 | Portland Trail Blazers -3 v. Sacramento Kings | Top | 107-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Trail Blazers -3
Off back-to-back defeats, including an embarrassing loss to Houston last night, expect the Blazers to take out their frustration on the lowly Kings. A brutal 15-point home loss to Sacramento in January should have the Blazers taking the floor with even more focus this evening. Right away, I love the fact that plays on road favorites out to avenge an upset loss to an opponent, following an upset loss at home, are an impressive 80-39 ATS since 1996. Also, plays on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are out to avenge a loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, following an upset loss, are 38-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. Portland has won 4 straight on the road. Plus, it has had very little trouble with Sacramento. The Blazers have won 8 of the last 9 meetings, including all 4 at Sacramento by an average score of 105-92 during this span. The Trail Blazers are 25-10-3 ATS in their last 38 games as a road favorite, 26-11-1 ATS in their last 38 games playing without a day of rest and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. The Kings are a lousy 10-29-1 ATS in their last 40 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Sacramento and the road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings overall. Bet the Blazers. |
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02-26-11 | St John's v. Villanova -6 | Top | 81-68 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
5* Big East Game of the Year on Villanova -6
St. John's, which has been getting all kinds of hype during its 5-game win streak, is primed for a letdown. Villanova, which is in danger of losing 3 straight at home for the first time in 17 seasons, will be extremely hungry today. These two factors alone have me loving the Wildcats on their home floor. The Johnnies are improved under Lavin, but they are being over-hyped. This team still hasn't beaten at top notch opponent on the road. The Red Storm have been handed a 15-point loss and a pair of 25-point defeats in their last 3 road trips against top notch Big East competition (Notre Dame, Louisville, Georgetown). Nova fits into the category of elite Big East schools. Now healthy, expect Nova to start living up to expectations today. Going to the numbers, we find that plays on home teams listed as a favorite or pick off an upset loss to a conference rival and up against an opponent coming off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, are 40-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this system are winning by an average of 10.2 points. Nova has won 6 straight in this series and the last 4 wins have all come by at least 10 points. Look for the Wildcats to show St. John's it hasn't arrived just yet in this one. |
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02-25-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Orlando Magic -7 | Top | 88-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week (ESPN) on Magic -7
The Magic will be extremely hungry to get back in the win column tonight following a loss to the lowly Kings. A 1-point loss at Oklahoma City last month provides the Magic with added motivation as well. The Thunder gave up a key piece of their team by trading Jeff Green to the Celtics. We're talking about a high energy player who gets the team 15 points per night. Without Green, it allows teams to focus even more attention on Durant and Westbrook. The loss of Nenad Krstic also hurts, especially tonight since Kendrick Perkins isn't expected to be available to guard Dwight Howard. Going to the numbers, we find that plays on any team coming off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 31-10 ATS since 1996. This system is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 11-2 ATS in home games versus explosive offensive teams scoring 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The Magic are winning these games by an average score of 107.6 to 92.8. Lay the points. |
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02-23-11 | Atlanta Hawks +3 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 97-105 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks +3
I won't hesitate to get behind the Hawks in this highly motivated spot. Out to avenge an earlier season home loss to Phoenix, and looking to quickly erase the memory of last night's butt-kicking in L.A., expect the Hawks to play with a ton of energy and passion tonight. Even though Atlanta played last night, fatigue won't be an issue following a lengthy layoff prior to that game. Plus, the Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing without a day of rest. In addition, the time to back Atlanta has been following a defeat. That's because the Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss. It is also worth noting that they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. Phoenix has not been able to be trusted in the small chalk recently. In fact, the Suns are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Suns are also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Lastly, it is certainly worth noting that the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the points with Atlanta tonight. |
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02-22-11 | Indiana St v. Northern Iowa -6 | Top | 76-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
5* MVC Game of the Year on Northern Iowa -6
This is a great spot for N. Iowa. The Panthers were defeated 70-45 at Indiana State last month, and I fully expect that embarrassing loss to be the driving force behind a comfortable win tonight. In addition, it's the last home game of the season for N. Iowa. Teams almost always take their level of play up a notch in these games to send the seniors out on a winning note. I expect a great effort tonight from this proud Panthers squad. Right away, it bodes well for us that favorites out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent, provided they are coming off a home loss, are 145-87 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have lost 4 of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record, are 50-18 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is 5-1 ATS this season. It is also worth noting that teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 10.5 points. We certainly can't ignore the fact that N. Iowa is a perfect 7-0 ATS when out to avenge an upset loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Panthers have bounced back to win by an average of 11.0 points in these games. Lay the points with the Panthers tonight. |
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02-19-11 | USC v. Stanford | Top | 69-53 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Stanford pk
Motivated by back-to-back losses to two of the best teams in the league (Washington, UCLA) and out to avenge an embarrassing 65-42 loss at USC last month, expect the Cardinal to take care of business at home tonight. Right away I love the fact that favorites (Stanford opened as fave) out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent, provided they are coming off a home loss, are an impressive 142-85 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 6.7 points. In addition, USC is just 4-8 in all games away from home this season. It has lost at both Oregon and Oregon State, so it is certainly susceptible at Stanford tonight, especially considering how much trouble it has had in Palo Alto. The Cardinal have won 8 straight at home in this series. It is also worth noting that the home team has won the last 13 meetings. The Trojans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. Expect Stanford to continue its home dominance here. |
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02-16-11 | Nebraska v. Oklahoma +1.5 | Top | 59-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Oklahoma +1.5
Off 3 straight defeats, including an absolute pounding at Mizzou last game, expect the Sooners to take out their frustrations on a Nebraska team that is 0-5 in true road games this season. With as poorly as Nebraska has performed on the road, it certainly can't be trusted laying points. The Cornhuskers are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 6.5 or less. Also, under coach Sadler, Nebraska is just 17-32 ATS in lined road games, losing these contests by an average score of 69.9 to 61.2. This is one matchup that has been dominated by the home team. The home squad has won 6 in a row. Plus, Oklahoma has won 5 straight at home in this series with all 5 of those wins coming by double digits. Take the Sooners. |
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02-15-11 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Chicago Bulls -9 | Top | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Bulls -9
Expect a letdown from Charlotte tonight following a huge blowout win over the two-time defending champion LA Lakers last night. "This is probably the biggest, monumental win for the Bobcats and probably the biggest loss for them," interim coach Paul Silas said. "It was huge." In other words, Charlotte is feeling pretty fat and happy right now. Right away I love the fact that Charlotte is only 4-12 in the second game of back-to-backs this season. Charlotte |
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02-13-11 | Xavier v. Duquesne -4.5 | Top | 71-63 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Duquesne -4.5
The Dukes have not forgotten the 36-point beating they took at Xavier last season. Motivated by that loss, I expect Duquesne to have its revenge Sunday. The Dukes will be further motivated today following an upset loss to St. Bonaventure in their last game. It is also worth noting that that contest took place on Feb. 5, giving Duquesne a full 7 days to prepare for a game it has had circled since last season. The Dukes have quietly been one of the best investments this season. In fact, they are 13-3 ATS in all lined games. They are 11-2 ATS as a favorite this season, 7-1 ATS in home lined games and 8-1 ATS against conference opponents. Recently, this matchup has been dominated by the home team. The home team is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings. Expect this trend to continue here. Lay the points. |
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02-12-11 | Oklahoma State v. Nebraska -4.5 | Top | 54-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
5* Big 12 Game of the Year on Nebraska -4.5
Off 3 straight defeats, the Huskers will be out for blood when they step back on their home floor Saturday. Winning at home has not been much of a problem for Nebraska. Big Red is 14-1 on its home court this season with an average winning margin of 15.7 points. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, has been extremely unreliable on the road. The Cowboys have lost their last 5 away from home. Nebraska is so tough at home because it gets after it on the defensive end. In fact, Nebraska visitors are being held to just 55.2 points on 35.5% shooting this season. This is significant considering Oklahoma State is 0-6 ATS in road games versus very good defensive teams (allowing 39% or less shooting) under coach Ford. The Cowboys are losing these games by an average score of 75.2 to 61.3. It is also worth noting that OK ST is 5-14 ATS as a road underdog or pick under Ford, losing these contests by an average score of 78.6 to 67.4. Lastly, Nebraska is an impressive 26-13 ATS in its last 39 home games after 2 or more consecutive losses, taking care of business in these spots by an average score of 70.8 to 63.8. Lay the points with Nebraska. |
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02-10-11 | Fresno State v. Boise State -7.5 | Top | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Boise State -7.5
Off 4 straight defeats, including an absolute pounding at Utah State in its last game, Boise State will be out for blood when it steps on its home court tonight. Besides, taking care of business against Fresno State hasn't been much of a problem. The Broncos have won 6 straight at home in this series with each of the last 3 wins coming by at least 12 points. Overall, the Bulldogs are just 2-13-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The Broncos are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an embarrassing loss of more than 20 points. They are also a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after being held to 50 points or less. The Bulldogs are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Lay the number with Boise State. |
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02-09-11 | Charlotte Bobcats +4 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +4
Last night we played on a 76ers team that had lost the season's first two meetings with Atlanta. Motivated by those losses, Philly rolled on the road. We'll make a similar play with the Bobcats tonight. Charlotte will be out for blood after losing the season's first two meetings with the Pacers. It's difficult to beat any team three straight times, especially one playing as well as Charlotte. The Bobcats are coming off a huge confidence boosting win over Boston, and they have been a covering machine on the road. In fact, the Bobcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog. It's going to be tough for the Pacers to get up for this game tonight after blowing a 14-point lead in last night's loss to Miami. I have a feeling that loss will still be hanging over their head. It has been extremely lucrative to fade the Pacers in back-to-back spots period, as they are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games when playing without a day of rest. The Bobcats should be the fresher, more focused team tonight. Take the points. |
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02-08-11 | Philadelphia 76ers +5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 117-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +5
Atlanta won the season's first two meetings by just 3 and 5 points respectively. It will have a difficult time making it 3 in a row against a 76ers team that is playing some ball. Philly has won 6 of 8, and it has played its best against some of the best teams in the league. In fact, Philly is an impressive 10-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season, defeating these foes by an average score of 96.6 to 93.5. The 76ers are also 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games when playing with double revenge (2 straight losses vs. an opponent). They are winning by an average score of 100.2 to 99.6 in these contests. The 76ers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. Lastly, plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, if they are a hot team with 6 or 7 wins in their last 8 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season, are 71-38 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points. |
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02-05-11 | South Carolina v. Vanderbilt -12 | Top | 60-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
5* SEC Game of the Year on Vanderbilt -12
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further motivated by a loss at S. Carolina last month, expect the Commodores to run the Gamecocks off the floor today. Vandy has been dominant on its home floor this season, where it is 11-1 with an average winning margin of 16.9 points. The numbers also suggest this is a great spot to back the 'Dores. In fact, Vandy is a dominant 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games off a cover in a game in which it lost straight up as an underdog. The numbers also suggest this is a poor spot for S.C., which is just 1-8 ATS off any conference win the last 2 seasons. With tons of motivation in this spot, expect this superior Vandy squad to roll. |
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02-04-11 | Dallas Mavericks v. Boston Celtics -6 | Top | 101-97 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Celtics -6
Boston is at home (where it is 22-3 this season), rested (hasn't played since Tuesday) and out for revenge (lost by 2 at Dallas in season's first meeting). In other words, this is an especially good spot to back the Celtics. The Mavericks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Mavericks are also just 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series. The Celtics are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record, 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games when playing on 2 days' rest and 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 games following an ATS loss. Dallas has won 6 games in a row and is coming off a blowout over the Knicks Wednesday and it is getting 6 points? It's clear odds makers want money to roll in on Dallas, but we won't bite. Expect the Celtics' league-leading defense to lead them to a double-digit win tonight. |
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02-02-11 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Denver Nuggets -8 | Top | 90-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
5* NBA Blowout Game of the Week on Nuggets -8
Off back-to-back embarrassing losses on the road, the Nuggets return home with plenty of motivation to take down a Blazers team they have owned in Denver. The Nuggets are 20-5 at home this season, and they have taken the last five against the Blazers at the Pepsi Center by an average of 14.2 points. Denver even won the season's first home meeting 95-77 with Carmelo Anthony on the sidelines. Anthony will be on the floor tonight, and he is playing well. Denver is 11-0 all-time at home in this series when Anthony scores at least 20 points. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Also, the Trail Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings at Denver. In addition, Denver is 19-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 112.6 to 99.0. The Nuggets are also 15-4 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, winning these contests by an average score of 112.1 to 101.1. After such an emotionally and physically draining win over the top team in the NBA (Spurs) last night, the Blazers won't have enough left in the Mile High City this evening. Lay the points. |
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02-01-11 | Penn State v. Illinois -8 | Top | 51-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
5* Big Ten Game of the Year on Illinois -8
This was already a great spot for Illinois and it just got even better. Due to a massive winter storm, Penn State's charter plane was diverted to Evansville, Indiana. Now the team will have to travel the rest of the way by bus. It's easy to lose focus when dealing with such changes in schedule. Illinois will be the more focuses team tonight regardless. The Illini have dropped back-to-back games, including a really bad loss to lowly Indiana. Plus, an earlier season loss at Penn State will add extra fuel to the fire. Going to the numbers we find that plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have lost 4 of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record, are 47-17 ATS the last 5 seasons, 25-6 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 10.3 points. Plus, Illinois is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. It also can't be ignored that Penn State is 0-7 ATS after a game in which it and its opponent combined for 110 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Illinois has home wins over North Carolina, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Michigan State by 8 or more. Lay the points. |
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01-29-11 | Northern Colorado v. Weber State +1 | Top | 71-72 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
5* Never Lost Big Sky Game of the Year on Weber State +1
Weber State took an embarrassing 19-point loss to this Northern Colorado team in its last game, but it will have its revenge Saturday. The Wildcats have won 4 straight at home in this series, and I fully expect this trend to continue. Weber State is 7-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, bouncing back to win by an average score of 75.9 to 65.3. The Wildcats are also a perfect 6-0 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, bouncing back to win these games by an average score of 76.3 to 65.6. That |
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01-28-11 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Golden State Warriors -4.5 | Top | 121-113 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Warriors -4.5
At 13-9, the Warriors have been playing good ball at home all season. I especially expect a strong performance out of them on their home floor tonight following back-to-back home defeats. This is a very tough spot for Charlotte, which is playing its 3rd road game in 4 days. The Bobcats are just 7-14 on the road this season. They are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Golden State is an impressive 24-9 ATS over the last 2 seasons versus teams that are outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game. The Warriors are defeating these teams by an average of 5.9 points. The Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or fewer and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Friday games. Lay the points with this motivated Golden State squad against the road weary Bobcats. |
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01-27-11 | Oregon v. Stanford -7.5 | Top | 67-59 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
5* Pac-10 Game of the Month on Stanford -7.5
Motivated by 3 straight defeats, expect the Cardinal to mop the floor with Oregon tonight. Stanford has had little trouble with the Ducks, winning 22 of the last 27 meetings dating back to 1998. During this span, Stanford is a perfect 13-0 at home in the series. Favored by an average of 8.8 points in these 13 games, Stanford has won by an average score of 82 to 64. In addition, Stanford is an impressive 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games after 2 or more consecutive losses. It is winning by an average of 10.0 points in these games. The Cardinal are also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Oregon's road struggles are nothing new at just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 road games. The Ducks are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Lay the points with this highly motivated Stanford squad on its home floor tonight. |