Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-19-21 | Syracuse +3 v. San Diego State | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 29 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Syracuse’s 2-3 zone defense can be difficult to prepare for in a tournament setting for teams who have seen limited amounts of zone during the course of the year. Said Aztecs head coach Brian Dutcher, “We’ve seen very limited zone all year,” Dutcher said. “I think Air Force tried to zone and they played a matchup and some switching. We haven’t played against a 2-3 zone, the entire season.” |
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03-19-21 | Jazz -3.5 v. Raptors | 115-112 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Toronto got a couple of their best players back on Wednesday but they still could not muster and effort to beat Detroit as they lost by 4. Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam were the players returning but they were just 5 for 24 from the floor combined. The Raptors have lost 6 in a row, 8 of 9 and the win was against the 11 and 28 Rockets. Before Covid gripped the country and when Toronto played their home games in Canada, the Raptors were 23 and 9 at home last season. Now, playing in Tampa, they are a game under .500 at home. If the Raptors aren’t aggressive defending the perimeter, it will be a long night for Toronto. The Raptors are 24th in the league in defensive 3-point field goal percentage. Only the Clips and Brooklyn have shot it better from the 3-point line this season. Utah is 4 and 1 this season in the second of back-to-back games. The Jazz were in D.C. on Thursday and they come to this game in a very foul mood after the Wizards put a spell of them. Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles did their thing but the Jazz reserves were dismal and Utah allowed Bradley Beal to control the tempo. |
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03-19-21 | Nets -10 v. Magic | 113-121 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Home invasion situation for the Nets. The Brooklyn bunch, now tied for first place in the East, flew here on Wednesday night after winning at Indiana, before the Magic flew outta town yesterday morning with a round trip ticket to and from New York, where they hopped off, took the Knicks to the wire in defeat, re-boarded, flew home to go to bed before playing the better NYC squad tonight, taking only +8 after covering +7 (as we expected) at the Knicks, who played without guards Derrick Rose, Elfrid Payton, Immanuel Quickley and Austin Rivers. |
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03-19-21 | Pistons +1.5 v. Rockets | 113-100 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pistons proved themselves willing and able conquerors of an opponent in distress when they walloped absentee-laden Toronto in Tampa recently, then came back to win the re-hook when the Raptors were reinforced by Van Vleet and Siakim’s returns following extended layoffs (and Anunoby was still out). Houston, 0-17, but Christian Wood and Danuel House have returned. So what? |
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03-19-21 | Rangers v. Capitals -132 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After their crazy 9-0 win at home over the Flyers last time out, regression seems imminent for the Rangers on the road in the Nation's Capital Friday night. Washington enters on top form, having won six straight, allowing just one goal over its last two games. The Capitals are also 4-0 in their last four vs. clubs with losing records, while New York is just 2-5 in its last seven vs. teams with winning records. The Rangers are also only 1-5 in their last six after scoring five or more goals in their previous game. Considering all of the above information, Washington seems like a bargain at this price. |
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03-19-21 | Drexel v. Illinois -22.5 | 49-78 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Drexel was a surprise winner of the Colonial Conference Tournament, prevailing after a regular season conference record of 4-5. The Dragons will take a major step up in weight class against the Illini now. Drexel relies on their interior play on the offensive end of the floor, but now will be matched with one of the most stout interiors across the country, as 7’0 sophomore Kofi Cockburn mans the interior for the Illini. |
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03-19-21 | Virginia Tech +1 v. Florida | Top | 70-75 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Play of the Day Virginia Tech and head coach Mike Young will put the brakes on the Gators, as the Hokies own one of the most stout transition defenses in the country. Young recently compared starting guard Wabissa Bede to a brick wall, and he’ll be responsible for slowing down Florida’s Tre Mann. When forced to operate in the half court, the Gators are not nearly as efficient. Virginia Tech’s advantage on the sideline will push them through to the second round. |
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03-18-21 | UCLA v. Michigan State -2 | 86-80 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units UCLA has fallen apart down the stretch, having lost four games in a row including an opening round loss to Oregon State in the Pac 12 Tournament. The Bruins and Mick Cronin now have to deal with Michigan State, which showed signs of life throughout the month February and March. The Spartans collected wins against Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan while competing in a strong Big 10. UCLA’s Cronin has not impressed in March, compiling a 4-9 record against the spread in the NCAA Tournament. |
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03-18-21 | Pelicans v. Blazers -1 | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Teams have to force New Orleans to settle for perimeter shots. They are 19th in offensive three-point field-goal percentage. The Pelicans faltered on Tuesday against the Blazers even though their best two players went 21 for 39 from the floor. Once again, Damian Lillard was efficient and carried Portland to victory on Tuesday with 50 and 10 dimes. He had the third fewest field-goal attempts on way to a 50-point game in the shot-clock era. He probably will not just rest on his laurels after the big night either. Last month he had 43 in a game and came back with 35 points in the next out. C.J. McCollum has a shot to have a better game here after getting some rust off on Tuesday |
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03-18-21 | Thunder v. Hawks -7 | 93-116 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hawks are 20-20, tied for #6 in the East with Boston, who failed in Cleveland last night. Charlotte is a half-game in front of them and playing better teams out West. OKC’s Luguentz Dort and Darius Bazley both had good games vs. the Hawks in their prior meeting but both are expected to be out as they go G-League-ish. It’s teed up for the home team, which has won six straight, the last five against the biggest collection of troubled bums in a row you could imagine: Orlando, Toronto, Sacramento, Cleveland, Houston |
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03-18-21 | Penguins -152 v. Devils | 2-3 | Loss | -152 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The New Jersey Devils found a way to give themselves a little confidence going into today's home game against the Pittsburgh Penguins. They won a home game. That might sound like a relatively minor thing. Teams are supposed to dominate on home ice. The Penguins, for example, are 12-3-0 at home. But it has been a struggle for the Devils, both at Prudential Center in Newark and elsewhere. Their 3-2 win Tuesday over Buffalo -- the only team beneath them in the East Division -- snapped an 11-game home losing streak. Consider that Pittsburgh is 14-2 in their last 16 games as a favorite. |
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03-16-21 | Pelicans +2 v. Blazers | 124-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blazers went 1-1 in Minnesota, a 9-30 team, and were a mere +3 in points differential. The Pelicans are talented enough to be more than a handful for them. The nights we pick the Pelicans, however, tend to be the nights that Stan the Man can’t get them to do anything right. Over the last two weeks, only the Houston Rockets and Sacramento Kings are allowing more points per possession than the Blazers are. There has been a lot of losing among those two Western Conference standings anchors! Bad sign for the home favorite, considering that the Pelicans have unleashed some previously unrealized offensive potential in recent weeks. The Pelicans are 4 games out of the #8 seed in the West, but if they’re ever going to make one of their runs that perpetually get basketball writers to say, “New Orleans has arrived, and such a bright future!” only to have them slump and miss the playoffs, again, then a game like this – road, vs. a sixth-place host that barely made the playoffs last season, who could go either way from here – is the kind of game they need to win to start making up ground that will eventually be lost again. |
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03-16-21 | Lightning -152 v. Stars | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lightning will look to keep zeros on the home side of the scoreboard -- something they have done well against the Stars this season. The two Stanley Cup Final participants last season have played twice in 2021 -- once in Tampa, once in Dallas -- with the Lightning posting shutouts in each contest. Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy started both games and frustrated the Stars throughout. The 2019 Vezina Trophy winner backstopped his club to 5-0 and 2-0 victories -- the only games in which Dallas was blanked this season. Vasilevskiy, who has stopped all 48 shots by the Stars, got the day off Monday in the Lightning's 4-1 matinee loss to the visiting Nashville Predators. He is expected back in the crease today. |
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03-16-21 | Knicks v. 76ers -6.5 | 96-99 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 76ers may be taking over from Utah and Phoenix as the new "hottest team in the NBA." Sure, Miami has won 10 of 11 but Philly, in their last five games, is scoring 1.27 points per possession, allowing only 1.03, 5-0 SU and ATS while covering the spread by an average of +20.6 points per game. It’s not sustainable, of course. Utah, our "peak too soon" team, is an NBA-worst -11.8 per game ATS in this same span. This is how things work. The problem is in attempting to detect when the big, long, hot spells will cool down and level off. You know the dips are coming, but when? We’ll figure that against a visitor that is offensively suspect, doesn’t beat winning opposition on a regular basis (it’s called being a bottom-feeder) isn’t home, and who played home vs. the Nets last hight, the Embiid-less 76ers stay hot. |
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03-16-21 | Jazz -4 v. Celtics | 117-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston goes from playing one of the worst teams in the league to one of the best. In Houston on Sunday the Celts took advantage of a team in total disarray. Boston has won 5 of 6 but the last win was too easy and they also beat a Toronto team that has had a bad stretch with the protocols. Boston was also life and death to beat the 14-23 Washington team by a point. The Jazz figure to be motivated after allowing the Warriors to destroy them from outside on Sunday. Rudy Gobert should be able to control the glass. In the game vs. the Warriors, Golden State had 40 rebounds while Gobert had 28 all by his lonesome. When Utah beat this team last month they won the battle of the boards and Utah starting guard Mike Conley didn’t play. |
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03-15-21 | Clippers -1.5 v. Mavs | 109-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Second of back-to-backs for the Clippers, but they were blown out after three quarters in New Orleans last night. All of the obvious recent signs point in Dallas’ direction. The Mavericks are 7-2 since Feb. 15 with a +5.4 points differential. The Clippers are 5-7 in the same span, with a +0.8 margin. But when they got on the airplane headed for New Orleans, the Clippers knew they’d be playing two games in three days at Dallas immediately afterwards. The eighth-place Mavericks are only 3.5 games behind the fourth place Clippers today. Not only is there the matter of keeping at bay a team near them in the standings, there was a 124-73 home loss to the Mavericks in the third game of the season. That was an incredible 51-point losing margin, at home! Professional athletes who have attained certain levels of what is described as “success” aren’t always motivated to play their best emotionally and physically. But 51-point home losses (Kawhi Leonard didn’t play, and he and Paul George played only 29 and 23 minutes last night) tend to be remembered at payback time! L.A. is the #1 three-point shooting team (41.7%). |
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03-15-21 | Knicks v. Nets -8.5 | 112-117 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nets won 116-109 at Madison Square Garden on Jan. 12, after they’d beaten Denver 122-116 the night before. The Knicks don’t beat winning opponents. Maybe once in a while they do. But when the opponent wants to get serious, they normally won’t. Playing good defense against lousy teams has helped New York to become 20-19, currently #7 in the East. Attempting to play good defense against one of the most potent offensive teams will probably be for naught. The Nets are a half-game behind Two Week Embiid-Less Philadelphia, have won nine of their last 10. They eased past Detroit in a sandwich game the other night, between beating real threat Boston and tipping it off here against real threat (to their neighborhood manhood) New York. No Durant, no Blake Griffin yet, no problem? |
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03-15-21 | Capitals -220 v. Sabres | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Washington has totaled 33 non-shootout goals while winning eight of its last nine contests, and recorded five in each of the last three games. Ovechkin scored his 10th of the season and third in four games during the Capitals' 5-4 win at Philadelphia on Saturday. Buffalo 10-game losing streak (0-8-2) is the franchise's longest winless stretch since dropping 14 in a row from Dec. 29, 2014-Jan. 39, 2015. Though the Sabres snapped a string of yielding five goals in five straight games, they were shut out for the fifth time this season following a 3-0 defeat by Pittsburgh on Saturday. The Sabres have also been outscored 29-9 during an 0-7-1 home slide. They haven't dropped nine straight at home since 2013-14. Consider that Washington is 20-7 in their last 27 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. |
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03-15-21 | Bruins -111 v. Penguins | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -111 | 2 h 54 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Unit 10* NHL Game of the Month It is likely that Tristan Jarry, who has started 12 of the past 15 games, and DeSmith will split the two games against Boston. For Boston, goaltender Tuukka Rask has been arguably the team's best player. He is 8-4-2 in 14 starts. The Bruins led the East early but are 4-6-2 in their past 12 games. They have not stacked together back-to-back wins since a five-game winning streak over the first two weeks of February. Their 4-0 loss Saturday at home against the New York Rangers emphasized their displeasure with themselves. Consider that Boston is 12-5 in their last 17 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation and 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. |
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03-15-21 | Kings v. Hornets -3 | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Sacramento has dropped 12 of 15. Two of the wins came against Detroit and Houston and the other came against the Lakers when they were without LeBron and Anthony Davis. Charlotte beat this club the last night in February despite 3 starters for the Hornets shooting 6 for 18 from the floor. The Hornets have won 3 in a row, 4 of 5 and the loss was in Oregon to the pesky Blazers. Their rotation got deeper immediately after the break. |
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03-15-21 | Bucks v. Wizards +8.5 | 133-122 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite playing without All-Star and NBA leading scorer Bradley Beal, Washington took Milwaukee to the limit in Saturday's 125-119 Bucks win. Russell Westbrook, who recorded a triple-double of 42 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds, made a 3-pointer that pulled the Wizards into a 119-119 tie before Milwaukee scored the game's final six points. Despite the output allowed on Saturday, Washington. Coach Scott Brooks praised the defensive effort in holding the Bucks below 44 percent shooting, and cited the interior defense of center Alex Len, who Brooks called "active." Consider that Washington is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall while Milwaukee is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. |
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03-14-21 | Hurricanes v. Red Wings +1.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wings have lost more than their fair share of games, but they rarely get blown out. They just split a two game home series versus Tampa, with the loss coming by a score of 4-3. They host Carolina on Sunday afternoon, and the Canes have won seven straight. Carolina is 9-5 on the road, but four of their last six road wins have come in games decided by one goal. If Detroit can stay out of the penalty box, they should have a chance to win this game. |
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03-14-21 | Jazz -6.5 v. Warriors | 119-131 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A very telling scenario: For weeks, the Warriors had been going along steadily in the Western Conference’s top eight, not really threatening the top four but holding service in the group that was vying in the #5 to #8 range. But their last three games before the All-Star break were on the road against the Lakers, Blazers and Suns – winning Western Conference teams familiar with them. The results were L-L-L. They came out of the break to get killed on the road at the Clippers, another in the group of Western Conference opponents in the stratosphere above them. They have fallen to #9, possibly with a lead weight attached. Although they are finally back home, the opponent is the one team that’s been flying clearly above everybody else in the West, and the league in general, for the last seven weeks. Recent results suggest that the Warriors are outclassed in match-ups like this. |
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03-14-21 | Cincinnati v. Houston OVER 135.5 | Top | 54-91 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit CBB Total of the Month Consider that the over is 9-1 in Bearcats last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, 6-1 in Bearcats last 7 games following a straight up win, 4-1 in Bearcats last 5 games as an underdog, and 16-5 in Bearcats last 21 overall. |
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03-14-21 | Grizzlies -7 v. Thunder | Top | 122-128 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Second of back-to-backs for the host Thunder following yesterday’s crash and burn by our new least favorite basketball team. Hopefully they get what they deserve and lose ten more games consecutively. They are very excited that 7-footer Moses Brown, in his second career start, got a double-double in their 22-point home loss to a Knicks team with three guards out, and one on the floor who can’t score (Frank Nktilina). Good God. Rested Memphis can be a defensively harassing pest on any given night, especially when they didn’t play the night before and the other guys did. Actually, when both sides were playing second of back-to-backs in Memphis on Feb. 17, OKC turned it over 18 times and lost 122-113. |
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03-14-21 | VCU v. St Bonaventure -3 | Top | 65-74 | Win | 100 | 2 h 56 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit A-10 Play of the Day St. Bonaventure enters Sunday with an experienced team, prepared to handle the pressure of VCU. The Bonnies have stability in the backcourt with Kyle Lofton and Dominick Welch, who have helped the Bonnies rank 79th-best in turnover rate nationally. St. Bonaventure has a group of juniors and a bit more experience than VCU, fueled by past failures. “The whole entire time leading up to this game, I have been seeing stuff on TV about how Saint Louis won that game (2019),” Osun Osunniyi said. “That’s just giving us extra motivation.” The Bonnies will lead the way, having held four straight teams below 0.88 points per possession. |
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03-14-21 | LSU +6.5 v. Alabama | Top | 79-80 | Win | 100 | 2 h 51 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit SEC Play of the Day Following the blowout win against Mississippi State, the Crimson Tide covered by the hair of a rattled-in free throw in the final seconds vs. offensively challenged Tennessee yesterday. LSU is not offensively challenged. Quite the contrary. Although Alabama has put up big points in many blowout victories, LSU has been the more offensively efficient side, overall. The Tigers have won nearly 70% of their games straight-up and are taking two possessions worth of points – the kind of commodity that we are happy to pay our price for before the chips, er, shots, fall where they may. Sure, we see, “Alabama, 105-75” and “Alabama, 78-60” over LSU in the regular season. In the first, Alabama set an SEC record for three-pointers made in a game, 23. In the second, in the words of LSU head coach Will Wade: “We went 1-for-17 for a stretch there in the second half. We’re just not capable of overcoming that, especially on the road against a very good team.” Right. Re-set to 0-0, take the points with the double-revenge dog averaging 82.2 ppg |
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03-13-21 | Cal-Irvine v. UC-Santa Barbara -2.5 | Top | 63-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Big West Play of the Day Let’s try this again. Get up off the mat and punch back. Last night’s embarrassing result in the Cal-Irvine game was triggered by six Riverside guards shooting a combined 9-for-33. Way to go. Way to be there. Way to show up in the big game. Geez. Leading 41-28 at the half, Irvine defense wasn’t going to allow a comeback. Double-revenge is a dish best served cold. Way back on Dec. 27-28, the Anteaters beat the Gauchos 75-56 and 73-69 in the first two games of Big West Conference season. That’s as cold as an in-season revenge dish can be served. UCSB has lost one (1) game since. As noted yesterday, Irvine’s most experienced players don’t handle the ball very much. Cal-Santa Barbara’s most experienced players are senior guards Jaquori McLaughlin and Devearl Ramsey, a couple of ball-security experts who combined for 9.0 assists per game on a team with a 16.4-11.1 Assist/Turnover rate. They may not be the world’s greatest-shooting three-point team, but 35.0% isn’t shabby and they can stretch the floor enough to create space for Amadou Sow to go to work inside. |
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03-13-21 | Oilers -131 v. Canucks | 1-2 | Loss | -131 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Facing the Edmonton Oilers is hard enough at full strength. Now, the Vancouver Canucks have a litany of injury woes to worry about as they ready to host the high-octane Oilers tonight. With forwards Tyler Motte (high ankle sprain), Justin Bailey (separated shoulder) and Elias Pettersson (upper-body injury) already sidelined, the Canucks have another trio of forwards nursing issues. Brandon Sutter, Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel all missed practice on Friday, and coach Travis Green said only "one or two" were likely to play against the Oilers. Edmonton has won 15 of its past 20 games to move into second place in the North Division. Consider that Edmonton is 13-3 in their last 16 games as a favorite. |
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03-13-21 | Mavs +2 v. Nuggets | 116-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mavericks lost the second of back-to-backs at Oklahoma City on Thursday after they’d beaten San Antonio at home the night before. They were in Denver yesterday, as the Nuggets were in Memphis, winning no less. It’s a home invasion situation for a Dallas team that’s been doing quite well in this match-up of late. In the last five meetings, the Mavericks have outscored the Nuggets by +21 points. That’s an average margin of +4.2 per game and the oddsmaker gives the rested road dog a head start here. |
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03-13-21 | North Texas +1.5 v. Western Kentucky | 61-57 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Stansbury, for a championship? Well, maybe. But he’ll have to get through us to get it. “The toughest team always wins,” is what North Texas head coach Grant McCasland often tells his team. Being tougher than La. Tech yesterday was testament to the NoTex toughness because it was 40 minutes of contested baskets against an underrated defensive squad. There will be more open floor for the Mean Green in this game. Going 15 rounds with UAB yesterday may have taken a just enough out of Western Kentucky. In the end, Charles Bassey’s idea of rebounding was attempting to tip it to teammates, and being glad the big one that he couldn’t get to went out of bounds off a UAB player. The guy they want to play through looked a little gassed and off on his left leg. |
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03-13-21 | Georgia Tech v. Florida State -4.5 | 80-75 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Florida State’s size and depth will pose a major issue for a smaller Georgia Tech team that often is limited to just a six or seven man rotation. Florida State center Balsa Koprivica has rapidly improved, going for 17 points, 11 rebounds and four blocks against a stout North Carolina interior on Friday night. The Seminoles ability to disrupt smaller teams on the perimeter due to their athleticism will be a factor when taking on a pair of diminutive guards in Georgia Tech’s Jose Alvarado and Michel DeVoe. |
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03-13-21 | Golden Knights v. Blues OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Unit NHL Total of the Month Consider that the over is 23-6 in Blues last 29 Saturday games, 11-5 in Blues last 16 games playing on 0 days rest, and 11-5 in Blues last 16 home games. In addition the over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in St. Louis and 6-0 in the last 6 meetings. |
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03-13-21 | Raptors v. Hornets -2 | 104-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Toronto, who has several players dealing with health and safety protocols, hosted the Hawks on Thursday. The Raptors were beaten off the boards in the defeat and the game would not have been all that close if Chris Boucher didn’t have a huge game. Chris has 29 points and he has only reached that many points or more two other times this season. The Pistons visited North Carolina on Thursday in a game where Scary Terry Rozier dominated down the stretch. The Hornets lost back-toback games to Toronto in January but there were reasons. In the first loss, the Hornets rally fell short when Gordon Hayward didn’t play and LaMelo Ball was not even starting. In the second loss, the Charlotte bench just didn’t show up as they scored 11 fewer points than their average this season. Charlotte has won 4 of 6 including a win over Phoenix and in one of the losses during this time span Melo had a ‘glory days’ game for Portland. |
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03-13-21 | Georgetown +9 v. Creighton | 73-48 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Georgetown, a three possession underdog, continued their run in New York on Friday, knocking off Seton Hall. The Hoyas’ defense continues to lead the way, a unit that grades out as one of the 15 best nationally since early February. Patrick Ewing noted that the change to move 6’8 forward Chudier Bile into the starting lineup once they returned from a program pause this season has changed the team. Bile has brought a physicality along with the size that Georgetown needed. The Hoyas were the last Big East school to get on campus this season and it’s taken time to gel, but it has all started to come together over the last few weeks. |
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03-13-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State -1.5 | Top | 57-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Mountain West Play of the Day San Diego State will be out for payback, after falling to Utah State in a back-to-back series in January. The Aztecs did not have their best player, Matt Mitchell, available for the second meeting and that cost the Aztecs in a big way. With Mitchell on the floor along with sharpshooter Jordan Schakel, the Azetcs have the shooting to space out and take advantage of a bigger Utah State team that prefers to pack the paint. Schakel and Mitchell combined for 39 points and six mad threes on Friday night against Nevada. |
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03-13-21 | LSU v. Arkansas -3.5 | Top | 78-71 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit SEC Play of the Day Arkansas continues to roll through the SEC, having not lost a conference game since January 16th. The Hogs are clicking on both ends of the floor and have the versatility to slow down a potent LSU offense. Arkansas starting forward Justin Smith is an ideal matchup to go against LSU big man Trendon Watford. Eric Musselman’s ability to adjust on the fly with schemes should bode well for a quick turnaround into Saturday. In the last meeting against LSU, Arkansas limited LSU to 43.8% shooting from two-point range, as Watford shot 4-for-13 inside the arc. |
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03-13-21 | Knicks v. Thunder +4.5 | 119-97 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units What can the Knicks do for an encore following the expected 25-point loss at ***BEST BET Milwaukee on Thursday? The Knicks don’t beat many good teams. They have beaten enough losing teams to have a .500 record. OKC is a losing team. Since the Knicks acquired Derrick Rose from Detroit, they are 8-4 SU when he plays. But Rose didn’t play in Milwaukee and he won’t play today. Aha. The Thunder beat the Knicks 101-89 in New York on Jan. 9. Little-known fact: Mike Miller, former Knicks assistant and their interim coach last season after David Fizdale fizzled out and was sent packing, is top assistant for first-season OKC head coach Mark Daigneault. Double-aha! Ya’ think perhaps Miller and fellow former New York, now OKC assistant Royal Ivey – Harlem-born and Queens, NY high school champ -- had a little something to do with fashioning that prior win? Shea Gilgeous-Alexander out for OKC. Yeah, seen that movie before. |
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03-13-21 | Tennessee +4 v. Alabama | 68-73 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With rest, Alabama rendered utter destruction upon unrested Mississippi State yesterday. Freshman guard Joshua Primo was injured in the game but they have guys. Tennessee is easy to knock for their inconsistency, but they were 5-5 in “Quad 1” games to Alabama’s 6-4, the difference having been the Tide’s 71-63 road win way back on Jan. 3. Vols’ head coach Rick Barnes pulled no punches with his senior forward John Fulkerson afterward, at least to the media: “We knew they were going to try to drive and make him play defense. Offensively, he never established what we needed to get done. We got the ball there, but he went three-for-eight from the free throw line. That is tough when you got a guy you’re counting on to give you something around the rim or get you there.” Tough love! Jaden Springer was unavailable due to injury for much of the game, questionable foul trouble took away Tennessee’s best defender Yves Pons for a while, and a ref on the other side of the floor hit Rick Barnes with a technical for the sin of Barnes correctly arguing a bad call against point guard Santi Vescovi, which left Tennessee without a true point guard for the last four minutes of the first half. |
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03-13-21 | Cal-Riverside +2 v. Cal-Irvine | Top | 61-78 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Big West Play of the Day The most experienced players on Irvine don’t handle the ball a whole heck of a lot. The Anteaters are a favorite that has scored less than 1.0 points per possession in conference play. After 4-19 Cal Poly was able to hang with them for 40 minutes last night, Irvine seems to be asking for somebody with better offensive capabilities to come along and beat them, kind of like Northeastern in the CAA when that team got beat by Drexel. Cal-Riverside is the Saint Mary’s of SoCal, with an infusion of Aussie and New Zealanders and, in fact, a former Saint Mary’s player, 7’1”, 250 center Jock Perry. Usually, every Highlander is a three-point shooter including Perry (and they all have percentages to respect), which can lure Anteater rim protector Brad Greene away from the hoop to begin an unraveling of their normally good defense. |
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03-12-21 | UCF v. Memphis -7 | Top | 62-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit AAC Play of the Day Facing Memphis is a tall order for a Central Florida team that has proven to not be able to handle pressure this season. The Knights turned the ball over 33.3% and 29.6% of the time in two meetings against the Tigers this season. Memphis head coach Penny Hardaway has noted that his full defensive system is now installed, as a COVID-19 pause helped his team implement it, “The two long pauses gave us the time to do that. Now we’re definitely way more prepared to shut team downs.” Memphis appears highly motivated to find itself in a rematch with Houston on Saturday, as the Tigers lost on a buzzer beater finish against the Cougars last weekend. |
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03-12-21 | Ole Miss v. LSU -1 | 73-76 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units LSU is a difficult matchup for Ole Miss, as the Tigers are plenty capable of dissecting the 1-3-1 zone defense of the Rebels. In the first meeting between the two teams, the Tigers produced 1.07 points per possession. Impressively, LSU did that without star guard Cam Thomas, who logged just four minutes before exiting due to injury. LSU’s offense displayed its depth in that outing, as the Tigers are the nation’s 5th-best offense nationally in efficiency. Tigers head coach Will Wade noted this week that his program is well aware of the struggles they’ve had in the SEC Tournament and it’s been a focus and a goal this year to correct that. |
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03-12-21 | Magic v. Spurs -7.5 | 77-104 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Magic travel for a second of back-to-backs, against a rested home team that is coming off a loss. Shooting guards Evan Fournier and Terrance Ross were out last night. They tried to go big and hung in there for a while, but wilted badly in the fourth quarter. Good luck to them, and their backers, if those two are out again tonight. Fournier is definitely out, Ross questionable. Not to mention point guard Cole Anthony having been out since Feb. 9, and 6’6” small forward James Ennis III out since Feb. 25. Oy. Compared to what San Antonio had to deal with against Doncic and Porzingis the other night, this is quite the class drop. |
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03-12-21 | Connecticut +1 v. Creighton | Top | 56-59 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Big East Play of the Day Huskies head coach Dan Hurley downplayed the status of James Bouknight on Thursday, saying it was only cramping and he’ll be ready for Friday. With Bouknight back in the fold, the Huskies are now 11-2 against the spread and UConn seems intent on sending a message to their new conference this week. Said starting wing Tyrese Martin, “We’re a different team. We’re at full strength. We’re probably one of the hottest teams in the country right now. So to beat us, you’re going to have to do a lot of things. And I don’t think that there’s a team right now that’s going to do that.” The physicality that the Huskies play with will be difficult for Creighton to match. |
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03-12-21 | Wisconsin v. Iowa -4 | 57-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Iowa and Wisconsin just met on Sunday, which ended in a narrow 77-73 Iowa victory. The Hawkeyes should be encouraged that their next meeting on Friday results in a more comfortable margin. Iowa shot 65.6% from two-point range against the Badgers, but made only 7-of-23 three-point attempts. Wisconsin played a near perfect game, turning the ball over just seven times, while making each of their free throws and 37.5% of three-point attempts. It’s unlikely the Badgers can replicate such a performance, and even that was not good enough. |
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03-12-21 | North Carolina v. Florida State -2.5 | 66-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Florida State remained idle on Thursday, and Seminoles leader Rai-Quan Gray said the additional time off was helpful. “I think it is a recharged group. ... We met a little bit, and had some good practices, and we got back to who we are, back to the basics.” The Seminoles’ size and athleticism will be a match for a North Carolina team that continues to simply lean on their size and physicality to get by. Florida State can match the Tar Heels in that department and force North Carolina to execute. |
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03-12-21 | Oregon State +8.5 v. Oregon | 75-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Eager Beavers get a second chance at the Ducks after Oregon rained a season-high 15 three-pointers against them in Sunday’s 80-67 win at Corvallis. Said OSU head coach Wayne Tinkle, “We got off to a slow start offensively. The whole objective was to pound it inside, and I think once they got a little bit of a lead, we thought we were going to just shoot our way back into it, rather than staying on plan.” Live and learn, baby. |
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03-12-21 | Coyotes v. Wild -180 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After Cam Talbot had to miss time due to COVID-19 protocols, Kaapo Kahkonen has broken out as the Wild's primary goalie. Kahkonen is 8-0-0 over his last eight starts, the longest winning streak by any goalie in the NHL this season. Overall, Kahkonen has a .922 save percentage and 2.19 goals against average over 15 games. It has been quite the performance for a goalie who entered the season with only five NHL games on his resume. However, Kahkonen's emergence was no surprise to Minnesota defenseman Carson Soucy, who played alongside Kahkonen for the Wild's AHL affiliate in Iowa. Kahkonen's unbeaten run includes a previous victory over the Coyotes, as the goalie stopped 24 of 25 shots in a 5-1 Minnesota win on March 5. Consider that Arizona is 8-20 in their last 28 games as a road underdog. |
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03-12-21 | Cavs v. Pelicans -7 | 82-116 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland doesn’t make it easy on themselves. They are the only team that has averaged fewer than 10 three-pointers a game. Coach Van Gundy has to get his team to play more consistent in the second half of the season. The Pelicans take good shots and are tied for 5th in the league in offensive field-goal percentage. |
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03-12-21 | 76ers v. Wizards +4.5 | 127-101 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No Embiid, no Simmons in Chicago last night? No problem! Come on, man, that was a fun set-up, taking points with the 76ers against the Bulls without those two, once again watching the “high-profile absentee chasers” go down to defeat with information that everybody knows, but attempts to leverage while not accounting for the reality of professional players and coaches doing their jobs in the absence of “superstars,” who are merely guys with big stats. It was so much fun that we are emboldened, as Embiid returns tonight but Simmons is still out, to figure “Washington outright” as the Sixers lay two possessions in the second of back-to-backs vs. the rested home side that is coming off a loss. Simmons is a danged good defender. |
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03-12-21 | Nuggets -3 v. Grizzlies | 103-102 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Memphis hosted the Wizards on Wednesday in a game that the Grizzlies controlled in the second half. Memphis was a bit on the fortunate side since Washington’s best player Bradley Beal shot only 27% from the floor. That was Beal’s second worst shooting night of the season as he has averaged 48% from the field this season. Denver has won 4 in a row including a 31-point win over Milwaukee on the second of a back-to-back game. They have also won 5 of 6 and the loss during this period was by a bucket. The Nuggets play the right way and they have several guys that can get their own shot. They are in the top 8 in the league in scoring, allowing points and assists. The Nuggets are behind only Milwaukee, Phoenix and Utah in point differential |
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03-11-21 | 76ers +3.5 v. Bulls | 127-105 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating; 3 Units Ha. They can’t trap us. The Bulls have been best as road dogs, as we often note on these pages. Tonight, because neither Joel Embiid nor Ben Simmons is playing for the 76ers, Chicago is a -3+ home favorite against the Eastern Conference’s first place team. You know what they say. First, they say that what everybody and his brother knows is not worth knowing. Also, they say that when the big cats are away, the mice will play! |
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03-11-21 | Knicks v. Bucks -10.5 | 101-134 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Bucks have revenge for a 130-110 loss in New York. They seem to be pacing themselves this season as opposed to last, when they were the clear #1 team throughout, then fizzled badly in the post-season. The Knicks have been playing well, it’s true. But who have they been playing? Mostly nobody. Prior to a recent rare loss for New York, in San Antonio, we noted that they’d been beating losers. The Knicks were supposed to lose that game, against a winning team, by 4 points. They lost it by 26. They went home to win against banged-up, travel-weary Detroit. Big whoop. Milwaukee shot 7-for-38 from three-point range when they lost in New York. With Mitchell Robinson out for the Knicks, Giannis can posterize Nerlens Noel a few times. |
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03-11-21 | Hawks -3 v. Raptors | 121-120 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Toronto was hit hard at the end of the first half of the season with health and safety protocols. It is kind of amazing the way the NBA has continued to carry on despite all the health issues. When Toronto lost to the Hawks in February Atlanta did a good job on both of the Toronto starting guards and Atlanta won despite turning it over 18 times. Atlanta went 3 and 2 in their last 5 in the first half but in that span they beat Boston and they also handled Miami. Atlanta kicks it off here only 2 games out of the 6th spot in the East. |
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03-11-21 | Devils v. Islanders -201 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Islanders will get their first chance this season to maintain their NHL-best home record in front of fans tonight, when New York is scheduled to host the New Jersey Devils in a battle of longtime division rivals in Uniondale, N.Y. Both teams were off Wednesday after playing Tuesday night, when the Islanders earned their sixth consecutive win with a 2-1 shootout victory over the visiting Boston Bruins and the Devils came back from a three-goal deficit before falling to the host Washington Capitals, 5-4, in overtime. The win was the 11th at home this season for the Islanders, tying them for the most home victories in the NHL with the Pittsburgh Penguins. But at 11-0-2 at the Coliseum, New York is the only team without a regulation loss at home. The Devils have lost nine of 11 (2-8-1) since Feb. 20, a span in which they've suffered five defeats by one goal. Overall this season, New Jersey is 5-4-3 in one-goal games. Consider that New Jersey is 7-20 in the last 27 meetings. |
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03-11-21 | Devils v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 105 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Units NHL Total of the Mont The over is 8-2-1 in Islanders last 11 home games, 3-1-1 in Islanders last 5 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game., 5-2 in Islanders last 7 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game, and 5-2 in Islanders last 7 games following a win. In addition, the over is 5-1 in Devils last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. |
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03-11-21 | Georgia v. Missouri -6 | 70-73 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units “You can’t let Missouri play downhill,” said one SEC head coach, Kermit Davis of Ole Miss, who beat the Tigers twice. Meaning, don’t let them get into an up-tempo groove by winning the boards and triggering transition. Plenty of Georgia’s losing scores indicate that the Crean game can’t get played like that. Their defensive rebounding rate is one of the nation’s worst. The overall experience edge for Missouri is strong and while the Tigers aren’t a strong three-point shooting team, neither is Georgia |
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03-11-21 | Rider +6.5 v. St. Peter's | 60-75 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We frequently say that opposing defensive players can just hold their ground and watch Saint Peter’s run their lengthy offensive sets that create nice open looks before they miss the jump-shot or fail on the lay-up. Therefore, with two possessions worth of points as a head start, against a low-possession opponent, we’ll take Rider on two days’ rest since their first round win. |
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03-11-21 | Tulane +3.5 v. Tulsa | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite a loss to close the season, Tulane head coach Ron Hunter left encouraged. “Our defense in the last week-and-a-half has been awful, and then we got back to who we were in the second half. We played about as well as we can play in the second half.” Tulane will now take on a Tulsa team that previously knocked off by a score of 58-48 on the road. The Green Wave’s tricky zone defense perplexed a limited Tulsa offense. |
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03-11-21 | Northern Colorado +7.5 v. Southern Utah | 83-91 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units As a team with better-than-average percentages on three-pointers offensively and defensively, against an opponent with lower-than-average percentages in both, and with NoCo also being decent at offering resistance in the paint against a Southern Utah squad that likes to do business inside the arc despite not being very big, the unrested, underdog Bears seem like worthy adversary against the #1 seed. The favorite’s tallest starter is 6’7”. Their 6’11” Ivan Madunic has been coming off the bench for about 17-18 minutes to score anywhere from 0 to 4 points – yawn. |
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03-11-21 | Syracuse v. Virginia -5.5 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 37 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit ACC Play of the Day Virginia’s ability to dissect Syracuse’s 2-3 zone should help the Cavaliers |
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03-11-21 | Georgetown +7 v. Villanova | 72-71 | Win | 100 | 2 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Villanova had its work cut out without senior point guard Collin Gillespie, but now the Wildcats have also lost starting shooting guard Justin Moore for the time being. Moore was set to take over point guard duties, but severely sprained his ankle against Providence. That resulted in Villanova scoring 52 points in a loss to a mediocre Friars team. Now, Villanova will take on a rapidly improving Georgetown defense that can keep the Hoyas competitive on Thursday afternoon as a substantial underdog. The Hoyas have now gone 5-2 against the spread down the stretch, with the only losses coming against a UConn team with James Bouknight back in the fold. |
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03-11-21 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky -3 | Top | 74-73 | Loss | -112 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit SEC Play of the Day Kentucky enters the SEC Tournament with a chance to save a disappointing season and John Calipari appears ready to empty the tank. “There will be no pitchers left,” Calipari said during a teleconference Wednesday. “I’m using every pitcher I can. The knuckle-baller. The curve-baller. The fast (ball) pitcher. The middle reliever. The last-pitch (closer).” Part of the Wildcats adjustments as of late has been moving senior Davion Mintz into the point guard role. That move should benefit the Wildcats, as it removes struggling freshman Devin Askew from the lineup. The Wildcats will now be bigger, more athletic and will not have sacrificed shooting. |
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03-11-21 | Michigan State +1.5 v. Maryland | 57-68 | Loss | -107 | 1 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Michigan State continues to fight to keep their season going, and a win on Thursday over Maryland would likely punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament. The Spartans have been a different team as of late, going 5-2 against the spread down the stretch. They won’t lack motivation in this spot, as they previously suffered a loss on the road to Maryland. That first meeting for Michigan State occurred as the fourth game in eight days for the Spartans in late February. Michigan State was a bit taxed from winning back to back games against Illinois and Ohio State prior that outing. |
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03-10-21 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma -11.5 | Top | 73-79 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Big-12 Play of the Day The Sooners enter off four straight losses. As far as we’re concerned, they’re going into this “the right way.” The last three were against the fan base’s two most hated rivals, Oklahoma State and Texas. They were right there in all three, losing each by 4 points. The “slide” actually began in the second half of their second win against Iowa State, when they turned a 41-25 halftime lead into a non-cover in the road win. Hey, they’re entitled. It’s a tough conference, long season, and somebody has to lose a game involving two high-class winning teams. But enough is enough, and now they drop in class. It’s not like Iowa State is coming into this any better. Actually, the Cyclones current losing streak is four-and-a-quarter times worse, with 17 in a row! |
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03-10-21 | UTEP v. Florida Atlantic +4 | Top | 70-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit C-USA Play of the Day Owl not be denied? Last Friday, we won a ***BEST BET on Florida Atlantic against an admittedly weaker foe, Middle Tennessee, in which we described them as a poor man’s version of the highly ranked Houston Cougars. They hit the offensive glass (11.4 ORs per game) and get many second-chance opportunities after missed three pointers. But they miss fewer treys than most, with a good make rate of 37.5%. They are also in the national top 20 in defensive rebounding percentage. UTEP has played close games against Arizona and Kansas, beat Arizona State. Those were exhibitions for Arizona and Kansas, and we all know that Arizona State was/is a joke. UTEP is more accurate then FAU only at the free-throw line, but they don’t get there with any fearful frequency. |
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03-10-21 | Coyotes v. Avalanche -205 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Arizona won't have its top goaltender for Wednesday, or for the near future, according to coach Rick Tocchet on Tuesday. Darcy Kuemper made 17 saves before leaving early in the third period of the Coyotes' 3-2 win and Tocchet said Kuemper is heading back to Arizona to be evaluated. Kuemper looked sharp in his second game back from a lower-body injury that sidelined him for four games, but he suffered an undisclosed injury against the Avalanche. While Colorado had possession of the puck Kuemper signaled to an official, and when the puck left the zone play was stopped, and Kuemper was replaced by Antti Raanta. Bednar said Tuesday that center Nathan MacKinnon will be back in the lineup after missing three games. Consider that Colorado is 20-9 in their last 29 vs. a team with a losing record. |
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03-10-21 | Duke -2 v. Louisville | 70-56 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Duke will take on Louisville for a third time this season, having lost both prior outings. Duke should feel confident however, as the Blue Devils took Louisville to overtime on February 27th despite a 4-for-21 shooting performance from three-point range. The Blue Devils can certainly shoot the ball better than that, and have a mismatch in Matthew Hurt. Hurt torched the Cardinals for 37 points, making 13-of-15 two-point attempts before fouling out. Duke hardly had to break a sweat on Tuesday and the concern of a back to back should be lessened as no starter played more than 27 minutes. |
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03-10-21 | Iona +1 v. Siena | 55-52 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Iona looked quite sharp after a two week layoff on Monday night, rolling past Quinnipiac by a score of 72-48. Rick Pitino’s defense looked as good as it has this season, limiting the Bobcats to 29.0% shooting from two-point distance. Pitino is certainly capable of now slowing down Siena guard Jalen Pickett and forcing others to attempt to beat him. Iona impressively ranks 24th-best nationally this season in effective field goal percentage allowed, a testament to Pitino still being as sharp as ever on the sideline. |
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03-10-21 | Air Force +12 v. UNLV | 52-80 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s an annual March tradition for us to take points with Air Force in the Mountain West Tournament first round. Usually, they’re a double-revenge underdog and that’s the case once again. In two wins in three nights here in early February, UNLV could muster only 68 and 69 points vs. the Falcons while actually scoring at a healthy rate: 1.20 and 1.18 points per possession. They probably can’t do much better than that. They might do worse, because they’re not known for quality of shot selection. |
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03-10-21 | Marquette -3 v. Georgetown | Top | 49-68 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Big East Play of the Day Marquette’s defense has made strides lately, looking like the physical and attentive group that Steve Wojciechowski had been hoping for this season. The Golden Eagles have held five of their last six opponents to 0.93 points per possession or less. That has helped lead Marquette to a 4-1 record against the spread in those outings. Marquette’s physicality poses as an issue for a Georgetown offense that prefers to play inside through big man Qudus Wahab. Wahab will have to deal with senior center Theo John, one of the better interior defenders in the Big East. |
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03-10-21 | Northern Arizona v. Portland State -6 | 77-66 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Big Sky passed by without a regular season meeting between the #7 PSU Vikings and #10 NAU Lumberjacks. Portland State posted a program-best 66.0 points per game allowed, out of necessity because on the other end of the floor so many of them couldn’t hit a cow’s ass with a shovel. Most of NAU’s players share the same erratic traits, as 32% of the team’s 62.7 ppg have been scored by junior guard Cameron Shelton. NAU’s defensive FG% of 51.5% is difficult to embrace, even against erratic-shooting PSU, who helps make up for their misses by being good on the offensive boards. |
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03-09-21 | Wake Forest +8.5 v. Notre Dame | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wake Forest, a multiple possession underdog, gets a chance to reset their season in the ACC Tournament. Said head coach Steve Forbes after a competitive outing against Georgia Tech this week, “Kind of hit a wall in February, maybe it was conditioning. But they’ve kept being positive and we hadn’t always played great, but for a while there tonight I thought that was more indicative of what we saw in January and what we’ll see on Tuesday in Greensboro.” Wake Forest will face a similar minded team in Notre Dame, as both offenses can make shots while both defenses lack physicality. |
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03-09-21 | Devils v. Capitals -188 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Washington Capitals are riding high on a sizzling 6-1-1 stretch, with three of those victories coming at the expense of the New Jersey Devils. The Capitals aim to continue their mastery of the Devils today when the teams reconvene in Washington, D.C. Ilya Samsonov made 36 saves Sunday night in the Capitals' 3-1 win over the Philadelphia Flyers. The 24-year-old Russian was making his second start since returning from the NHL COVID-19 protocol list, with the first being a 19-save performance in a 3-2 victory over New Jersey on Feb. 28. Samsonov sports a 3-0-1 record with a 2.53 goals-against average and .910 save percentage in four career meetings with the Devils. New Jersey goaltender, Blackwood, who yielded five goals on 27 shots against the Rangers on Saturday, permitted seven tallies on 46 shots in consecutive losses to Washington on Feb. 27-28. The 24-year-old owns a 1-5-0 record with a 3.48 goals-against average and .878 save percentage in six career meetings with the Capitals. Consider that New Jersey is 25-62 in their last 87 vs. a team with a winning record. |
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03-09-21 | Bruins -107 v. Islanders | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Unit NHL 10* Game of the Year The Isles have been playing well. However, they're stepping up in class here. I expect a visit from the talented and hungry Bruins to bring them back down to earth. Off an upset loss to the Devils, the Bruins are going to be in an angry mood. The fact that they're 0-3 against the Isles this season adds further motivation. The last of those meetings was a 7-2 beatdown. Obviously, Boston hasn't forgotten. The Bruins haven't fared well here this season but are still 18-6 their last 24 visits here. While they'll be without Rask, Halak is 5-2 with a 2.24 GAA. I expect them to bounce back with a huge effort |
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03-09-21 | Oakland +3 v. Cleveland State | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Horizon League Play of the Day Oakland enters as a slight underdog on Tuesday night, with a strong chance to win the Horizon League title. The Grizzlies continue to get exceptional point guard play from Jalen Moore, who totaled 14 points, seven assists and two turnovers in Monday’s win over Northern Kentucky. The Grizzlies will get a third crack at Cleveland State after falling to the Vikings twice in early February in two close contests. Oakland starting guard Rashad Williams missed the first game and only played 11 minutes in the second outing due to injury. Williams is now back and has totaled 39 points in the first two games of the Horizon League Tournament this week. With Moore’s running partner back in the fold, the Grizzlies can more than even the score with Cleveland State. |
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03-09-21 | Miami-FL +3 v. Pittsburgh | 79-73 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hurricanes have been playing with less than a full boat all season, but many of the few (get it?) hands on deck are seniors. “Our guys have had a great attitude, a great work ethic,” said Jim Larrañaga after they won at Boston College in the regular-season finale. “To me this was a huge game, to be able to go to the ACC tournament and feel a lot better about ourselves.” Pitt isn’t getting replacement-scoring out of the guards playing more minutes since the #2 and #3 scorers left the program. After head coach Jeff Capel was reprimanded yesterday (‘Stop tickling my wrist!’) for saying that ACC officiating has been biased against his team, the refs probably won’t bend over backwards to help him out. |
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03-09-21 | Pepperdine +8.5 v. BYU | 77-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pepperdine is a sizable underdog on Monday night against a BYU team they were competitive against this season. The Waves lost by 11 to the Cougars on the road and then knocked off BYU at home, 76-73. Pepperdine has played exceptional perimeter defense this season, ranking 4th-best nationally in three point percentage allowed. That will be key against a BYU offense that often relies on their perimeter shooting to lead the way. Pepperdine was led on Saturday in the quarterfinals by their star duo of Colbey Ross and Kessler Edwards, who combined for 46 points. |
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03-08-21 | Northern Kentucky v. Oakland +2 | Top | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Horizon League Play of the Day In an odd twist, Oakland and Northern Kentucky have not met yet this season and will see each other for the first time on Monday night. The meeting will be a clash of styles with Oakland’s uptempo system facing off against a very slow Northern Kentucky team. Where Oakland holds an advantage is with terrific point guard Jalen Moore leading the way. Moore leads the nation in assist rate and will likely be able to get the pace of the game on the Grizzlies’ terms. Also helpful for Oakland is their willingness to pack the paint and allow opposing teams to shoot from three. That’s an issue for a Northern Kentucky team that ranks 288th in three-point percentage. |
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03-08-21 | Blues -150 v. Sharks | 2-3 | Loss | -150 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Monday's game marks the first time the Sharks and Blues have seen each other since a wild contest on Feb 27 that featured an NHL-record-tying six game-tying goals in a regular-season game and ended in a 7-6 victory for St. Louis. The Blues have since gone 3-0-1, stringing together three straight victories before losing 4-3 in overtime to the Los Angeles Kings on Saturday night. St. Louis had a 3-1 lead after the first 20 minutes of Saturday's game, but Anze Kopitar and the Kings came roaring back in the second frame on their way to winning in overtime. The Sharks, on the other hand, have gone 1-2-1 since facing the Blues, including back-to-back losses to the Vegas Golden Knights on Friday and Saturday. Although San Jose was able to rally in Friday's game and push play into overtime before losing 5-4, the Sharks were completely stymied by Marc-Andre Fleury in Saturday's rematch, getting shut out 4-0. Consider that San Jose is 19-39 in their last 58 vs. a team with a winning record. |
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03-08-21 | Appalachian State v. Georgia State -6.5 | 80-73 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Appalachian State has carried Winning Points Executive Club members through a pair of 5-Star victories on Saturday and Sunday as outright underdogs against #1W seed Texas State, and #2E Coastal Carolina. We don’t view these as “upsets.” Heck, if we think an underdog will win outright, how could it be an “upset?” The ability to suddenly pivot away from, and against, your winners is an important trait for handicappers and bettors to have in their mental/emotional arsenal. (Example: shoulda been that way dealing with VMI yesterday). Or, there’s always the option to be neutral and walk away. It’s a fourth game in four nights for App State. Their starters have played 38-42 minutes in the last two and they’ve lost junior 6’8” forward James Lewis to injury along the way. The bench scored 0 yesterday. Soph guard Donovan Gregory got 8 steals for them last night vs. Coastal (3 and 0 the prior two nights). Yesterday, we mentioned how Georgia State’s good ball security was an asset. After getting swept by App State on the road in January when they hadn’t played in two weeks, Georgia State won 85-71 the next time the teams met on Feb. 23. |
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03-08-21 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Cleveland State -3.5 | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ya’ gotta love the Horizon League. Milwaukee’s ousting of #2 seed Wright State in a delayed second round was typical of this conference, not an upset despite the 14-point line, as per the picture we painted for everyone in one of last week’s daily issues. When lower seeds play with six days’ rest, instead of in back-to-back situations, these things tend to happen with more frequency than in more traditional tourneys. By the way, Milwaukee trailed Wright by 24 points in the second half! They closed on a 33-4 run! We won’t expect UW-M to advance here. Anybody that can fall behind by that much may do it again, and be trying to come back vs. better defense. They need to prove they can make a lot of shots against somebody other than Wright State, against whom they’d hit 80 in both prior losses. The Panthers lost 64-53 off a six-day break at Cleveland State, then needed OT the next night to get to 81. But there’s no second night if they lose this. |
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03-07-21 | Senators v. Flames -163 | 4-3 | Loss | -163 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Senators have been awaiting this match since losing a 7-3 clash with the Flames in Calgary on Thursday. They have lost two straight games and three of four outings, and know they must improve their defensive play. That said, the young Senators have been guilty of over-trying at times, pulling themselves out of position in an attempt to defend and leaving their opponents open in the resulting confusion. The Senators, who sit last in the North Division, do need better goaltending from Matt Murray. Even if his team is struggling to defend, Murray has not been up to snuff, and been pulled in four of 18 starts, including the last outing. Consider that the favorite is 17-8 in the last 25 meetings while the home team is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings. |
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03-07-21 | Mercer v. VMI +2 | Top | 73-59 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Southern Conference Play of the Day Easy-peasy with our **PREFERRED winner on VMI yesterday – needed only one overtime! Although the Keydets invested a lot of sweat and limited manpower into yesterday’s upset (Wait, what upset? We thought they’d win!), this second of back-to-backs for them is against a Mercer bunch playing for the third straight night. And, they’re military kids. They’ve been through their share of off-the-court physical abuse, er, training! The lone regular season meeting went Mercer’s way, 83-80, at Mercer but our numbers, with an underdog that shoots and rebounds as well as VMI, say that today, it’s… |
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03-07-21 | Texas -7 v. TCU | 76-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texas beat the Horned Frogs by 15 points at home, rendering TCU center Kevin Samuel essentially invisible. Shaka Smart was impressed afterwards that his Longhorns could win by that much, despite being sloppy early with turnovers and not shooting well from three-point range. NCAA Tournament-bound road chalk lays single-digits to .500 overall foe 5-10 in conference. |
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03-07-21 | Drake v. Loyola-Chicago -7.5 | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Drake is a wounded team, who needed a buzzer beater on Saturday to advance past Missouri State. The Bulldogs are now without both starters Roman Penn and Shanquan Hemphill due to injury, forcing a few players to log heavy minutes on Saturday. Now they’ll meet Loyola Chicago on Sunday who easily dispatched Indiana State on Saturday. The Ramblers look like a team on a mission, and will have a bit of extra motivation having lost their last game at Drake in overtime on February 14th. |
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03-07-21 | Wisconsin v. Iowa -6.5 | 73-77 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Iowa put together a strong performance against the Badgers in their first meeting on February 18th. The Hawkeyes limited the Badgers to 22.2% shooting from two-point range, leading to a 77-62 victory. Iowa will send off All American Luka Garza on senior day, likely creating for a bit of extra motivation. Wisconsin has looked like a broken team as of late, having lost four of five games. The Badgers simply have not been able to compete with the top of the Big 10, having gone 0-7 against the spread against Michigan, Iowa, Illinois and Purdue. Their defense isn’t what it used to be |
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03-07-21 | Memphis v. Houston -10 | Top | 64-67 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 55 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit AAC Play of the Day Houston has been dominant at home this season, having covered the spread in their last five home games by double digits. The Cougars have had a week to prepare for this AAC showdown, while Memphis has spent the week on the road playing Tuesday and Thursday road games. This will be a major step up in weight class for Memphis, who has not played a Top 100 Ken Pom team in more than a month. The Tigers’ carelessness on offense, where they rank 326th in turnover rate, will create issues against an aggressive Houston defense. |
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03-06-21 | Davidson v. VCU -1 | Top | 52-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Atlantic 10 Play of the Day Davidson’s 99-point outing on Friday against George Mason was impressive but the Wildcats are perhaps a bit overvalued off such a performance. VCU meanwhile saw the return of star guard Bones Hyland, who totaled 30 points in a victory against Dayton. Hyland missed VCU’s first meeting against Davidson last week, in which the Rams were competitive in a one-possession game for the first 30 minutes until losing distance on the road. VCU will have the luxury of having seen Davidson’s motion offense once recently, something George Mason did not have the benefit of on Friday. Consider that Davidson is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games following three or more consecutive home games, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points |
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03-06-21 | Morehead State v. Belmont -5.5 | 86-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Belmont handled Morehead State in their first meeting this season, rolling to a 73-58 win at home in a game they never trailed. The Bruins would then lose the second meeting on the road in overtime, but did have starting center Nick Muszynski for that meeting. Muszynski is now back and the Bruins are 20-0 in the Ohio Valley when the big man suits up. Muszynski will help anchor a Belmont defense that ranked 2nd best in the Ohio Valley in two-point percentage allowed. That’s where Morehead State prefers to do their scoring, making this spot a challenge for the Eagles. |
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03-06-21 | VMI +8.5 v. Furman | 91-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Furman, 8-13 ATS, is favored at this neutral site against a 13-7 ATS opponent it lost to outright, 74-73, as an 11-point road favorite on Jan. 20. The catch – oh, there’s always a catch – is that VMI canceled its last three regular season games due to positive tests and quarantining, which began Feb. 22. So, if ya’ like military dogs with the best three-point field goal percentage in their conference (38.9%), gap in games notwithstanding |
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03-06-21 | Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss -8 | 46-56 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mississippi’s season will be on the line on Saturday, as the Rebels are just hanging onto the edge of the NCAA Tournament bubble. Ole Miss stayed in contention with a solid win over Kentucky on Tuesday and will have two extra days of preparation compared to a Vanderbilt team that has had quite the schedule as of late. This will be the third game in six days for the Commodores, having played at LSU on Tuesday, at Cincinnati on Thursday and now travel to Mississippi for Saturday. The Rebels will also be out for payback, having dropped a road game against Vanderbilt by five points. Vanderbilt shot 12-for-23 in that outing to escape with a home victory. |
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03-06-21 | South Alabama v. UL - Lafayette | Top | 68-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Sun Belt Play of the Day USA’s short rotation has not done well in the second of back-to-back games this season, and those losses occurred against opponents who were also playing without rest. Tonight’s opponent is a 17-6 team with rest, and 6’9" and 6’10" forwards the smaller Jaguars will be scrappin’ for rebounds against with their shorter, tired legs. It took us about three-and-a-half months to acknowledge the existence of Bob Marlin’s Ragin Cajuns and if they don’t come through for us, then we can go back to forgetting about them. |
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03-06-21 | Panthers -138 v. Predators | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Heading into Friday's matches, Ekblad -- the No. 1 overall selection in the 2014 draft by the Panthers -- tops all NHL defensemen with eight goals. In the clubs' first meeting on Feb. 4, Huberdeau and Nashville's Filip Forsberg had a duel of five-point nights, and each scored multiple points again Thursday. The victory pushed the Panthers to 6-2-2 in their past 10 and 7-1-1 on the road. With No. 1 goalie Juuse Saros (upper body) placed on injured reserve, Pekka Rinne kept Nashville in the third game between the teams despite giving up three goals in the game's first 20:59. Rinne, 38, denied a number of top-shelf chances and odd-man rushes by Florida to hold the second-period deficit at 3-0, and the Predators gradually clawed back in the game. Consider that the favorite is 16-7 in the last 23 meetings. |
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03-06-21 | Indiana v. Purdue -6.5 | Top | 58-67 | Win | 100 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Big-10 Play of the Day Indiana isn’t supposed to have a losing record in head coach Archie Miller’s fourth season, are they? But they have one, following four straight losses, scoring only 57 and 58 in the last two vs. Michigan and Michigan State. Trayce Jackson-Davis had 25 points but only 4 rebounds when the Hoosiers lost 81-69 to the Boilermakers at home. They’ve been missing guard Armaan Franklin, #2 scorer and 45% three-point shooter. By all accounts, he’ll miss this |
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03-06-21 | Sabres v. Islanders -205 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Things are going so well for the New York Islanders that they're getting multi-goal games from fourth-line players and stout goaltending from a rookie backup. Things are not going nearly that well for the Buffalo Sabres. The Islanders will look to remain red hot and deepen the Sabres' misery Saturday afternoon when New York hosts Buffalo in the middle game of a three-game series in Uniondale, N.Y. Matt Martin had his first multi-goal game in almost seven years Thursday night as the Islanders never trailed and Ilya Sorokin made 16 saves in a 5-2 win. Consider that Buffalo is 2-12 in the last 14 meetings. |
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03-06-21 | South Florida v. Wichita State -11 | Top | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit ACC Play of the Day Wichita State has plenty at stake when they take the floor on Saturday. The |
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03-06-21 | Florida State -6 v. Notre Dame | 73-83 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Florida State will enter Saturday with a chance to clinch an outright ACC title with a win at Notre Dame. The Seminoles are playing terrifically this season while Notre Dame has not displayed much fight lately. Said Mike Brey, “We really haven’t had much the last two games - fighting. You can’t use pandemics and all that as an excuse. It’s a little bit of the pride of digging in and competing. We did that to get out of a hole at 0-5, but we haven’t shown any of that lately.” The Irish have struggled all year with physical and athletic teams, especially those who can switch defensively. Florida State is exactly that. |
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03-05-21 | Eastern Kentucky +2 v. Morehead State | 64-67 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Anyone still craving Morehead after its 17-8 ATS regular season was warned by us, then got beat by a hair Wednesday night in what we feel was some foreshadowing for tonight. We’re pleased to take the points with an EKU side averaging 81.1 ppg in conference action as the defensively-led favorite scores less than 1.0 points per possession. |
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03-05-21 | Wild -135 v. Coyotes | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wild arrive in Arizona having lost a 5-1 clash to the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday. The game that was much closer than the one-sided score would indicate, as Vegas goalie Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 36 shots, including all 20 that went his way in the third period. Minnesota dropped a 5-4 overtime game in Vegas two nights earlier. Before heading to Vegas, the Wild were riding a six-game winning streak, so their confidence isn't shaken. Consider that Minnesota is 15-7 in their last 22 road games while Arizona is 6-16 in their last 22 games following a win. |