Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-30-21 | Phillies +121 v. Rays | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays recently won 11 straight games before the streak was snapped in that 2-1 loss to Keller and KC five days ago. After that game, their manager pledged to start and extend another winning streak and by golly, they did. Tampa has won three straight. But they will start a four-game series tomorrow in Yankee Stadium. They lead the Red Sox by a half-game, the Yankees by 3.5 games, in the American League East. With Colin McHugh opening, it’s obvious that they’re setting up the rotation to be at its strongest for the intra-division series against the hated division rival, as opposed to today’s Interleague affair. McHugh last appeared in the ninth inning of Thursday’s 7-2 win vs. the Royals. Today, it’s the first inning. Two appearances ago, it was the 7th and 8th innings in a 14-8 win. There is no real routine with him, and with the Yankees coming up, the relief choices may not be the “A” team. Zach Eflin is no superstar but you have to feel that a guy whose innings pitched in 10 starts are: 7, 6, 7, 6, 6 2/3, 6, 6 2/3, 6, 6 and 6 deserves some love from the baseball gods with a decent 3.84 ERA but a mere 2-4 W/L record to show for it. |
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05-30-21 | Brewers v. Nationals UNDER 6.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units A couple o’ #1 starters face sub-par offenses who average a mere 3.79 and 3.85 runs per game. Those low averages — which rank #23 and #26 in the 30-team entertainment enclave — include games when they aren’t facing #1 starters, or, for that matter, #2 starters. In his five starts in the month of May, 2021, Max Scherzer hasn’t allowed more than 2 runs. His median length is 7 1/3 innings for those five starts, with 47-7 K-BB in 33 1/3 innings. Washington is only 3-2 despite his excellence, having lost 2-1 and 4-3 (the latter in 11 innings, it was 2-1 when Scherzer left in the eighth, 2-2 after nine innings). See? They don’t hit much. Brandon Woodruff’s month of May is as good: also no more than 2 runs allowed in any of five starts, 7 2/3 innings median length, 39-6 K-BB. Milwaukee is only 3-2 despite his excellence because they lost 2-0 shutouts twice. See? They don’t hit much. |
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05-30-21 | Brewers +104 v. Nationals | 3-0 | Win | 104 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Woodruff (3-2, 1.41 ERA) owns a 1.05 ERA over his last nine starts for the Brewers, who have won six of their last eight. Milwaukee recorded a doubleheader sweep of the Nationals on Saturday, winning the first game 4-1 before scoring four runs in the sixth inning to win the nightcap 6-2. Washington has lost four of its last five games, and a lack of timely hitting has been the primary culprit. The frustration continued to simmer early in the first game Saturday, when star outfielder Juan Soto grounded into a double play with one out and two runners on in the third inning and the Nationals already trailing 4-0. |
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05-30-21 | Knicks +5 v. Hawks | 96-113 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Atlanta moved the ball and were a plus 14 in points in the paint in the win over NY on Friday and they shot the ball great to boot. Atlanta had 7 guys in double figures and Lou Williams came off the bench and gave them 9 points in 11 minutes. The Hawks did get a break when the Knicks were only 39% from the field. The Knicks only lost one quarter on Friday but it cost them the game. The contest was tight until about 5 minutes to go in the second quarter. At that point, Atlanta made a 17 to 5 run and that was the difference in the game. New York has to play better defense and they also have to continue to be aggressive going to the rack. NY got to the free-throw line 30 times Friday, 22 more times than the Hawks. Look for both R.J. Barrett and Julius Randle to be dialed in for this game. They were a combined 4 for 24 from the floor Friday |
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05-29-21 | Rangers v. Mariners -109 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners took the first two games from the Rangers at T-Mobile and they look like a solid value tonight. Justin Dunn comes in with a 3.41 ERA in eight outings, and he'll be facing a Texas team that is only 10-24 when facing right-handers (-$950). Seattle has had a profitable season vs. righties so far (+$520) so we'll lay the short price on the home team as they attempt to make it three in a row. |
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05-29-21 | Jazz -5 v. Grizzlies | 121-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Similar to the Bubble when several players last season had break-out performances, Ja Morant has made a name for himself with just 2 playoff games. Ironically, he broke Mike Conley’s Memphis team scoring record with 47 points in the last game. He became the first player to score as many as 71 points in his first two career playoff games since the NBA was created. He was 15 for 20 from the free-throw line as Utah only got to the charity stripe 31 times. Can Morant keep it up? He kicked off the season scoring 44 and had 28 in the next game. He had 29 in a game in February and had 12 next time out. He had 36 points in the last game of March and had 11 points next time on the court. The Memphis bench let the team down and if they don’t come to play, Utah will regain the home-court advantage. The Grizzlies reserves were outscored 43 to 14 Wednesday. Utah shot the ball poorly in the opening loss to Memphis in this series but they only had one poor quarter. The Jazz were only 26% from distance in the opening loss but came back and hit at 49% on Wednesday. Mike Conley and Ruby Gobert had double/doubles Wednesday and the return of Donovan Mitchell took pressure off of Conley to do everything. Only three teams in the league had a better away record than the Jazz this season. |
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05-29-21 | Islanders v. Bruins -184 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Islanders posted a 5-2-1 record against the Bruins this season, but Boston claimed the final three meetings. Maybe it's just a coincidence, but the Bruins won all three meetings after acquiring forward Taylor Hall, which gave them a potent second line that also includes David Krejci and Craig Smith. That takes some of the offensive pressure off the top trio of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak. The Bruins also will receive a boost to their defense corps led by Charlie McAvoy, who is from Long Island. Injured defenseman Jeremy Lauzon (lower body), who was hurt in the playoff opener, appears ready. Consider that Boston is 10-1 in their last 11 home games. |
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05-29-21 | Rockies -115 v. Pirates | 0-4 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We intended to go against Mitch Keller yesterday so after the rainout why not do it again today despite the pitching change? Yes, it’s the ultimate contrarian wise-guy move to be backing a 3-20 road team in both games of a double-header on the road. But the other side is the Pirates, so... Keller’s below par record was detailed yesterday, including zero quality starts out of nine. Austin Gomber just gave the Rockies 8 innings of 4-hit, 2-run ball at the Mets in a 3-2 win. If there’s a team as weak, or weaker than the Mets offensively in the National League, it’s Pittsburgh. |
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05-29-21 | Orioles v. White Sox -202 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles have lost 10 straight games and it’s Matt Harvey’s turn to start, against the first-place team in the American League Central Division. The most recent stop on Harvey’s Exit Tour of MLB was in Washington on Sunday, a light-hitting lineup that nevertheless got 9 hits and 6 runs against him in 4 2/3 innings. Before that, he lasted only 1 2/3 innings vs. Tampa, giving up 7 hits and 6 runs. The Mets — who can’t score more than 4 runs against any combination of pitchers on any opponent — nevertheless jumped on Harvey for 8 hits and 7 runs in 4 1/3 innings before that. It’s out of character for us to use a $2.00 favorite and apologize in advance if it doesn’t work out. But steady veteran lefty Dallas Keuchel would really have to throw in a terrible outing to blow this, with three regulars out injured in an already light-hitting Orioles lineup. |
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05-29-21 | Orioles v. White Sox OVER 6.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We add the Over with the game shortened to 7 innings because with Matt Harvey starting for Baltimore, the White Sox have an opportunity to get 7 runs on their own before Harvey leaves. |
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05-29-21 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | 120-103 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Bucks are 3-15 ATS against non-divisional opponent this season when coming off three or more wins in a row. Miami Heat head coach Eric Spoelstra is 7-1 ATS in his career with the Heat as a conference home dog coming off consecutive losses versus foes coming off consecutive wins. He is also 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS at home in elimination games during the playoffs. |
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05-29-21 | Rockies +122 v. Pirates | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Play of the Day The Rockies are 3-20 away from Coors Field. Godawful, eh? But they’ll win more than three games on the road. Hopefully that milestone is reached tonight in Pittsburgh, the National League’s last-place team with MLB’s worst Run Differential (-84). The Pirates average only 3.64 runs per game in their home park, where they are 8-14. If you can’t win on the road, it helps to be facing a bad host, right? Jon Gray has been the Rockies’ best starter with a 1.18 WHIP. The Pirates he’s faced are just 6-for-32 against him, 13-1 K-BB, Slugging Percentage of .157. Early listings have the Pirates switching Mitch Keller to Game 2 against Austin Gomber, with J.T. Brubaker to oppose Gray. Fine with us. Brubaker has allowed 15 hits and 12 runs in his last two starts, which totaled 11 innings. Among the 15 hits were 4 home runs. Yesterday’s rainout gave the Colorado bullpen a break after a double-header against the Mets the previous day. |
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05-28-21 | Rangers +113 v. Mariners | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Justus Sheffield gave up 10 hits and 7 runs to the Rangers in Texas on May 9. The southpaw has a 5.11 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, both higher than last season’s 3.58 and 1.30. The Rangers have been hitting lefties pretty well this season, managing to win 12 of 18 games when the opponent starts one (they’re 10-24 when the opponent starts a righty, like last night, when Seattle’s Chris Flexen shut ‘em out.) Jordan Lyles doesn’t get anyone excited to get out of the bed and on the phone with The Man, that’s for sure. But the Rangers have won four of his last five starts, three of them against the Red Sox, Yankees and Astros. |
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05-28-21 | Clippers -2.5 v. Mavs | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers finally exceeded their scoring average in a game against the Mavericks… but gave up 127 points and fell to 0-2 in the series. They will now have to pull a reverse of the usual playoff-series comeback try, needing to win four out of as many as five games when three of them will be on the road, starting with Games 3 and 4. Say, what’s Paul George shooting on three-pointers so far in the two losses? That would be 3-for-15. Keep jackin’ ‘em up, superstar (in his own mind). As the Clippers attempt to chip away at it, one thing to keep in mind: Dallas has shot 50.0% and 58.3% in the two games, including 47.2% and 52.9% from three-point range – over the top stuff, with Old Man Regression a potential sixth man for the Clippers tonight. |
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05-28-21 | Padres v. Astros OVER 8 | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units These are two pretty decent pitchers but the Padres’ Dinelson Lamet has been used sparingly and spottily and hasn’t been going deep into starts, while Framber Valdez is making his first start of the season for the Astros. it’s an Interleague game and managers tend to shake up their rotations and bullpen usage in these instances while hoping their hitters overcome their managerial ways. Both sides hit well enough (#1 5.2 runs per game for the Astros, #10 4.65 runs per game for the Padres to expect their averages, or better, once the starters are out and the relief crews over and done with. The Houston pen isn’t as good as the Milwaukee pen that San Diego just closed a series against. |
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05-28-21 | Knicks +5 v. Hawks | 94-105 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units New York came out flat on Wednesday scoring just 44 points in the first half but they put the clamps on the Hawks in the final 24 minutes holding Atlanta to 35 points in the come-from-behind New York victory. Several guys on both teams had off games. John Collins picked up three quick fouls for the Hawks and never did score while Atlanta’s Danilo Gallinari was only 2 for 10 off the bench for 6 points in 30 minutes. Four of the Knicks starters were a combined 11 for 35 but Derrick Rose looked like the kid that won the MVP in the league when he was only 22 years old. The Knicks are trying to regain the home-court advantage here and they won’t be shy about playing in Georgia. They beat the Hawks in January in Atlanta and their current center Nerlens Noel and Rose didn’t play. |
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05-28-21 | Reds v. Cubs UNDER 6.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A 21 mph wind blows in from center field at Wrigley Field this afternoon. That should keep most if not all the well-struck fly balls in the ballpark. We’ll take a flyer on Cincinnati rookie righthander Vladimir Gutierrez in his MLB debut. He can throw 96 mph, maybe get an extra push on it with the wind at his back. Adbert Alzolay has stuck in the Cubs’ rotation with his 0.86 WHIP. He’s been quite unlucky with a 4.30 ERA, a number you rarely see matched with such a low WHIP. His K-BB is an impressive 45-7 after 44 IP, and he won’t be facing injured Joey Votto or Mike Moustakas in the Reds’ lineup. |
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05-27-21 | Hurricanes -137 v. Predators | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The value is there as the price is moderate on Carolina since they are on the road. The Canes did win the first two games of this series by a 3-goal margin with each victory. The only two victories that Nashville has in this series each came in the 2nd overtime. Carolina is clearly the better overall team but yet we have some line value to work with here because of the way the last 3 games have played out (all needing extra time) and because the Hurricanes are on the road. The Canes have outshot the Predators in all but one game in this series and have outshot Nashville by an average margin of 15 shots in the last two games. The proven better team, the Carolina Hurricanes are worth a look. |
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05-27-21 | Angels v. A's -144 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s our man Chris Bassitt. After three straight road wins for us at Boston, Minnesota and the Angels, he turns around to face the L.A. lineup again, this time in his home park. He and his teammates beat the Angels 6-2 five days ago with Bassitt hounding them through 7 2/3 innings of 5-hit, 2-run ball, 8-1 K-BB. In his last five starts, four of them Oakland wins, Bassitt has a 38-4 K-BB. Yow. No Mike Trout for the Angels, and Anthony Rendon, since he returned from an injury two weeks ago, is 6-for-30 with 0 HR, 1 RBI. Angels’ multi-purpose Ohtani is 3-for-16 lifetime vs. Bassitt, (.188), with 7 strikeouts. He has to face him, but Bassitt doesn’t have to face Ohtani. Oh, that’s not fair. And who cares about fair? |
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05-27-21 | Orioles v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The White Sox were averaging 8.6 runs per game against left-handed starters before going into Yankee Stadium and getting stifled by Jordan Montgomery. Baltimore’s Bruce Zimmermann is a lefty with a 5.59 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, who they should enjoy teeing off against at home. They’ve supported Dylan Cease with 11-0, 9-0 and 9-3 wins and have the ability to go Over this Total on their own. |
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05-27-21 | Bucks v. Heat +1.5 | 113-84 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units When Milwaukee murdered Miami, 132-98 to go up two games to none in their playoff series Monday night they set the tone for the rematch in Miami tonight. The Bucks finished with 22 three pointers, a new franchise playoff high and handed the Heat their 2nd worst loss in franchise history (-34). Consider that Miami is 17-6 SU and 18-4-1 ATS in the playoff under head coach Eric Spoelstra when coming off a playoff loss of more than 10 points. |
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05-27-21 | Royals +157 v. Rays | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals dropped a close 2-1 decision last night, but they've kept the Tampa offense in check the past two nights, and they're getting a huge price at Tropicana Field. They've made money vs. left-handers (+$360 in road games), and Shane McClanahan comes in with 4.36 ERA his last two appearances. Brady Singer has pitched well in recent appearances, so look for KC to prevail in today's rubber game. |
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05-27-21 | Rockies v. Mets UNDER 5.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Why leave Citi Field if nobody is forcing us to get out? The Rockies entered last night’s game averaging 2.8 runs per game on the road, got 1 run and 3 hits against 5-inning Jacob deGrom and three Mets’ relievers. The men in Mets uniforms — many of them not supposed to be playing as much as they have been in recent days — continued their string of staying under 4 runs, getting 3. The Mets haven’t scored more than 4 in a nine-inning game since May 12. They got 9 hits, but all season long they’ve been among the worst teams in Hits per Run ratio, currently #28 at 2.13 hits for every run scored. German Marquez and Marcus Stroman are capable veteran pitchers, especially when the opposing lineups don’t have much pop in them. All the best relievers got an unscheduled day of rest yesterday and will be available. As always with these doubleheaders, double-check the times and pitching matchups because 19-year-olds with hardly any experience are posting information in Las Vegas and online, posing as expert insiders. |
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05-27-21 | Padres -112 v. Brewers | 5-6 | Loss | -112 | 2 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Team with as good or better a bullpen than Milwaukee’s, with MLB’s best Run Differential of +80, vs. the Brewers’ -24, is only a short favorite. The Brewers’ team batting average of .209 and on-base percentage of .295 are lowest in the National League. They’ve never faced Ryan Weathers — 1.48 ERA, 0.92 WHIP — and by the time they think they have him figured out, he’ll be gone by the 4th innings, replaced by somebody just as capable. Adrian Houser’s 4.53 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, a mere 1.9 K-BB ratio… not doin’ it for us. |
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05-26-21 | Giants -111 v. Diamondbacks | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Diamondbacks had nine hits but couldn't push across a run in their latest defeat. Arizona has scored two or fewer runs in 10 of the setbacks during the 13-game stretch. The Diamondbacks stand 13 games behind the San Diego Padres in the National League West. Last-place Arizona is 12 1/2 games behind the second-place Los Angeles Dodgers and 11 1/2 games behind the Giants. Giants right-hander Johnny Cueto (3-1, 3.34 ERA) will look to continue his career-long success against Arizona. The 35-year-old Cueto is 11-3 with 3.04 ERA in 18 career starts versus the Diamondbacks. He is 8-1 with a 3.30 ERA in 12 outings at Chase Field. Eduardo Escobar is 3-for-9 with a homer against Cueto, while David Peralta (1-for-15, nine strikeouts) and Nick Ahmed (1-for-12) have struggled. Cueto gave up one run and five hits in five innings while beating the Cincinnati Reds -- his former club -- last Thursday. Meanwhile the Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly (2-5, 5.05) has lost his past three starts and is winless over his last four. |
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05-26-21 | Dodgers -140 v. Astros | 2-5 | Loss | -140 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seems similar to last night’s match-up, when it was Kershaw vs. Greinke. The Dodgers’ starter, in this case Trevor Bauer, is capable of going longer and giving up fewer runs than the Astros’ starter, in this case Luis Garcia. Bauer’s starts for L.A. have averaged 6.4 innings and his WHIP is 0.77. Garcia’s starts for Houston have averaged only 4.9 innings and while his WHIP is a fine 1.10, Bauer’s 0.77 is clearly stronger. Things being what they are, Bauer should exit with a lead and then it’s up to a pretty good Dodgers’ bullpen to do its job. |
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05-26-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -1.5 | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The New York Knicks were the best point spread team in the NBA this season, doing 45-26-1 ATS in all games prior to the playoffs. They return home to Madison Square Garden this evening on the heels of a Game One setback to Atlanta on Sunday knowing they are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS as a playoff favorite when coming off a SU favorite loss. On the flip side, Atlanta is 4-14 SU and 5-13 ATS in the playoffs versus a foe coming off a SU favorite loss, including 0-7 SUATS the last seven games. |
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05-26-21 | Braves v. Red Sox -135 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston pitcher Nick Pivetta will try to keep his undefeated streak intact today against a very familiar foe. The right-hander (5-0, 3.59 ERA) will close the two-game series against the visiting Atlanta Braves, a team Pivetta has appeared against 15 times (12 starts). He will be opposed by left-hander Drew Smyly (2-2, 5.11). Pivetta is 5-2 with a 3.23 ERA in 15 games against Atlanta, including 3-0 as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies in 2017. But Pivetta said he has become a different pitcher since being acquired by Boston last August. "They gave me the confidence in myself, which was really good," he said. "They valued me, they traded for me, which was really nice of them. They valued me as a starter, which was huge, so it instilled a lot of confidence in me. They kind of let me be me, but they've helped me." He is 7-0 with a 3.28 ERA in 11 starts with Boston and is only the third pitcher to go unbeaten in their first 10 starts with the Red Sox, joining Mike Nagy in 1969 and Matt Clement in 2005. |
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05-26-21 | Wizards v. 76ers -8 | 95-120 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We look at this game a lot like last night's Game 2 in the Celtics-Nets series. In Game 1 of the Celtics-Nets series, the underdog turned in a game effort. They led at halftime, but wilted late and couldn't even get the cover. Game 1 of this series saw Washington up midway through the third quarter. But the next six minutes proved decisive as the 76ers went on a 26-16 run and never look back. The Wizards basically played the Sixers even most of the game. But they probably can't expect to shoot 55.7% on the road again in Game 2. After all, Philadelphia is #2 in defensive efficiency. Washington gave up the most points per game of any team in the league during the regular season. The Wizards had to play those two play-in games, so Philadelphia is better rested at this point. We look for Game 2 to be a bit of a blowout, just like Game 2 of Celtics-Nets ended up being |
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05-26-21 | Penguins v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 121 | 1 h 50 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Unit NHL Total of the Week Consider that the over is 4-1 in Penguins last 5 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game and 10-3 in Penguins last 13 road games. While the over is 3-1-1 in Islanders last 5 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. In addition the over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in New York. |
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05-25-21 | Mavs +7 v. Clippers | 127-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Maxi Kleber, who started at center in Game 1, is iffy here with an Achilles issue. It was a game of runs Saturday when Dallas upset L.A. The Clippers went on a 26-13 tear early in the game and Dallas connected on 11 straight points at one juncture. Luca Doncic is one tough 22-yearold player and he makes everybody around him better. If the Clippers want to win this series, they will have to get physical with Luca. Patrick Beverley will have to get under Luca’s skin and if that doesn’t work, Marcus Morris has to put a body on him. The Clips were outscored in every quarter on Saturday and Paul George only took 6 shots. L.A. shot 28% from deep and that probably will not happen here. In 73 games the season, the Clippers shot it at 41%. During the season, the Clippers were the second best team in the league in point differential |
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05-25-21 | Lakers -1.5 v. Suns | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’re starting to dislike Lebron. There is no way that Chris Paul is strong enough to make Lebron fall down simply by grazing him with his back turned. Lebron hurt his left shoulder (or made believe it was hurt) on his own flop. Come on, man. Although we picked the Lakers to win Game 1 by 2 points, a Game 1 loss by the Lakers, or any team with Lebron on it, is no surprise. It’s happened a lot in the past, eventually followed by a series win. He and his teammates – especially Anthony Davis – missed a heck of a lot of shots in the 99-90 defeat. Paul’s shoulder is probably in worse shape than Lebron’s, and as L.A. head coach Frank Vogel says, “If we hold this team to 99 points in Game 2, I feel good about our chances.” |
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05-25-21 | Mariners v. A's OVER 8 | 4-3 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Mariners’ touted rookie Logan Gilbert has yet to distinguish himself after two starts that lasted 4, then 2 2/3 innings. He’s allowed 9 hits and 7 runs, facing two of the American League’s weakest hitting lineups, Cleveland and Detroit, at home. He may not be ready for prime time. Doubts about the Oakland pitching staff linger. Cole Irvin has been a regular in the rotation but after striking out 9 Blue Jays in an 8-inning start on May 4, he has thrown 17 2/3 innings in three starts since, whiffing a total of only 6. |
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05-25-21 | Cardinals +131 v. White Sox | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day Lance Lynn gave the White Sox 7 innings of 3-hit, 1-run ball last night against the franchise which, after six seasons of pitching for them, five of them with a winning Won-Loss record, sent him on his way to what is currently a four-season, four-team, money-raking journey for the guy. The Cardinals had that coming to them from the baseball spirits, especially since Tony LaRussa, their former manager from 1995-2011, is leading the White Sox ten years after the Cardinals thought they’d put him out to pasture forever after two World Series wins, three NL pennants and nine post-season appearances. How satisfying a win was it? Glad we asked that question for you: “That was probably the most satisfying win in my career aside from the playoffs,” Lynn said. “I definitely enjoyed it.” Alrighty, then. But it’s a tough act to follow for their starter tonight, Lucas Giolito. He’s a fine and dandy young pitcher coming off 8 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball at Minnesota — so he is his own tough act to follow, isn’t he now? Good things happen for the Cardinals when Jack Flaherty starts. So far in 2021, nine (9) good things (wins) and no (zero, 0) bad things (losses). |
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05-25-21 | Dodgers v. Astros +105 | 9-2 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 10 Units Right-hander Zack Greinke (4-1, 3.77 ERA) will start the opener for the Astros on Tuesday. He is coming off his best outing in four weeks, having allowed one run on four hits with eight strikeouts over eight innings in an 8-1 victory over the Oakland Athletics on May 19. The Astros feature one of the top offenses in the majors, leading the league in batting (.270) while ranking second in OPS (.761), third in on-base percentage (.334) and fourth in slugging (.427). |
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05-25-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the under is 7-2-1 in Hurricanes last 10 vs. a team with a winning record, 13-5-2 in Hurricanes last 20 games as a home favorite, and 7-3 in Hurricanes last 10 home games. Also the Under is 9-3 in Predators last 12 vs. a team with a winning record and 11-4-2 in Predators last 17 games as an underdog. In addition, the under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Carolina and 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings. |
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05-25-21 | Padres +112 v. Brewers | 7-1 | Win | 112 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A 1.79 ERA and 0.62 WHIP are just too good to be believed, as far as their chances of being sustained at those super-elite levels over the course of a season, or half-season. That the Brewers are only 2-5 in Corbin Burnes’ seven starts despite his excellent numbers suggests a few things: hitting woes, which they most certainly have had; and wasted opportunities from excellent efforts that seem to be due to level off. With the Padres loss here last night, they are nevertheless 9-1 in their last ten games and have all their guys back from the virus nonsense (which didn’t affect them in a bad way, at all!). They are a +73 Run Differential underdog visitor against a -17 Run Differential home favorite. Few bullpens can match Milwaukee’s for depth of quality but the Padres’ pen is equal or better, actually better to date for 2021 with an MLB-low 2.47 ERA and #2 WHIP of 1.09. |
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05-25-21 | Braves v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The Braves rid themselves of Charlie Morton batting in favor of a DH. Charlie Morton pitching hasn’t exactly been the Charlie Morton of recent seasons. He had four straight sub-par outings allowing 5,4, 6 and 3 runs in no more than 5 1/3 innings (and as little as 2/3 of an inning) before beating the Mets with 6 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball last week. The Mets are pulling people off the street to hit the danged ball, so that effort by no means suggests that Charlie Morton of Astros and Rays post-season fame will be showing up in this ballpark tonight. Garrett Richards and Fenway Park aren’t getting along very well just yet. He has a 7.11 ERA in it after three starts, 12 1/3 innings in which opposing batters have 16 hits, scored 10 runs and are hitting .320 against him. |
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05-24-21 | Orioles -103 v. Twins | 3-8 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The long, black-bearded mediocrity called Matt Shoemaker is starting for the Twins tonight. That, in itself, is a decent enough reason to be on the other side. Shoemaker actually had a good outing against somebody other than Detroit in his last start (White Sox), but the Twins still managed to lose the game, and we were grateful for that. Having John Means as the Orioles starter adds another fine reason to be against the Twins, who continue to be set frequently at favored odds despite being tied for the American League’s most losses. Yes, we know that Baltimore is the team they are tied with and that the Orioles are 1-9 in their last ten games. But they’re 11-11 on the road and Minnesota is 8-15 in their home park. That’s something. Isn’t it? Means has a 1.70 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. That’s something else. |
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05-24-21 | Padres v. Brewers UNDER 7 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit MLB Total of the Day The Padres had the pleasure of facing the weakened Mariners bullpen over the weekend. Milwaukee’s is full strength and better to begin with. Nobody’s pen has been better than San Diego’s. So, you have two good bullpens behind two good starters. Brewers hitters have 0 home runs, a measly .185 Slugging Percentage and 1 RBI against Blake Snell in 39 at-bats against him. Padres hitters have 0 home runs, a .195 Slugging Percentage and only 4 RBI in 43 at-bats against Brandon Woodruff, who enters with a 1.58 ERA, 0.74 WHIP and 65-14 K-BB in 57 innings pitched. Snell has 60 Ks in 40 IP. |
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05-24-21 | Islanders v. Penguins -135 | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With their East Division series knotted at 2-2 and essentially down to a best-of-three beginning today, the New York Islanders and Pittsburgh Penguins are looking for buy-in. The Islanders felt they got that Saturday in a 4-1 win at home, playing their signature tough defensive style while seizing on opportunities to score. "If you look at when we have success, everybody contributes and we rely on each other," New York coach Barry Trotz said. "There's a great brotherhood in our (locker) room, and there's a style that we play. Everybody has a piece of the big picture." The Islanders also recognize that Pittsburgh, the top seed in the division, can be expected to rebound Monday at home. "Whatever we did (in Game 4), they've probably already forgotten about it, and they're going to be fresh for Game 5," Islanders center Mathew Barzal said. And, apparently, ready to return to their noted style of playing a speed game that relies on getting the puck deep in their opponent's end and attacking the net. "We can't kind of wait and see, and have that type of approach," Penguins center Sidney Crosby said. "We've got to go in there and dictate the pace." Pittsburgh missed its chance to take a commanding 3-1 series lead Saturday in large part because of an uncharacteristic lack of offense. "It's just going to take hard work and stick-to-itiveness," Penguins coach Mike Sullivan said. "We've just got to stay with it. "I don't think we were quite as sharp (Saturday). We didn't have as many looks as we had in the first few games. We're going to have to work for those moving forward. But these guys are good offensive players." |
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05-24-21 | Phillies v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 6-9 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Trevor Rogers is becoming a folk hero in Miami with his 6-2 won-loss record from nine starts,1.74 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, and 65-19 K-BB in 51 2/3 innings. Rogers has allowed a total of only 3 home runs, and more than 2 runs in a game just once, when he gave up 3 in a 3-1 loss. He has won three shutouts, and then his last three outings by 3-1, 5-1 and 6-1 scores. We were on him in the 3-1 win, noting that while the Phillies got 9 hits and 9 runs in 3 innings against him in a game last season, he’d improved dramatically since then. Meanwhile, only one MLB starter has a K-BB Ratio better than Zach Eflin’s 11.4 to 1. That would be Yankees’ ace Gerritt Cole (11.5 to 1). For further purposes of comparison, the fine pitcher we’re on in the game above, John Means, has a 5.36 to 1 K-BB Ratio |
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05-23-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -9 | 112-109 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Memphis played with grit, determination and +7 in steals beating Golden State on Friday to get this opportunity. They are young, talented and this post season will give them a chance to build for what should be a bright future. But they are probably 2 pieces away from being a legit contender and will have their hands full with Utah. Memphis lost to the Jazz three times in a span of 7 days this season. Their rally on March 26 fell short by 3 points on a night when 2 Jazz starters had 7 points total. They were blown out by 16 points after the 3/26 game and in the final game of the regular season with Utah, the Jazz reserves outscored the Memphis bench 35 to 13. Memphis was 1-3 in games after playing overtime this season and the win in that span came against a club that could only manage 22 wins all season. The average margin of defeat in the three Memphis losses after overtime was 12.6 points. Donovan Mitchell practiced Thursday for Utah and if he is able to go, it will obviously help the Jazz rotation. It will also take some scoring pressure off of Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson. Utah took more shots from downtown than any team this season. They hit 39%, tied for 2nd in the Association. Memphis was 18th in the league in defensive three point field-goal percentage. Utah only lost 5 of 36 games at home this season. If Memphis doesn’t guard Bojan Bogdanovic from the right corner, the Grizzlies will be in trouble. Bojan hit 60 right corner three-point shots this season at 46%. |
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05-23-21 | Bruins -131 v. Capitals | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston leads their series with the Washington Capital’s 3 games to 1 but this series could be easily 3-1 to Washington. The Bruins trailed at least once in each of the first three games and were down to the final couple of minutes before getting the equalizer and winning in overtime. Washington did not play well in game four allowing the Bruins to score on three of five power-play chances. Rask looks great between the pipes for the Bruins and Washington hasn't been able to solve him when it counts. I like Boston to close this one out. |
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05-23-21 | Hawks +1 v. Knicks | 107-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Knicks fashioned a 3-0 regular-season sweep of the Hawks. “They” say that the playoffs are very different from the regular season. If that’s true, then in this instance it would mean that Atlanta will win the series. A good way to win the series is to win Game 1 on the road. The shooters surrounding Clint Capela for the Hawks – Trae Young, Bogan Bogdanovic, Danilo Gallinari, Lou |
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05-23-21 | Mariners v. Padres OVER 7 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 3 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Again, as was the case for yesterday’s Over, the Padres’ lineup is back to full strength. The Mariners’ bullpen is gutted by positive virus tests and absentees. Although Yu Darvish is an ace capable of pitching a shutout against the team that gets the fewest hits per game in what you call your Major League Baseball, the Padres are capable of exceeding this Total on their own. Justin Dunn isn’t likely to give them more than 5 innings. He walks too many (22 in 32 IP). The Mariners’ bullpen is stocked with minor league call-ups for the next seven days. And after Darvish exits, the Padres can afford to use ‘B’ relievers with a lead in an Interleague game. |
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05-22-21 | A's -136 v. Angels | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day Chris Bassitt has started Oakland victories at Boston and at Minnesota for us in his last two outings. Tonight he’s on the road again facing, like the Twins, a last-place opponent. The Angels have a -47 Run Differential, closing in on Detroit for worst in the American League. They were a lousy team before Mike Trout went on the Injured List and are 1-4 since that day, winning when Alex Cobb threw some blistering innings for them, and us, against the — last-place — Twins. Two weeks ago, the Orange County Register reported that Angels manager Joe Maddon “values Patrick Sandoval as middle-innings closer.” He values him so much in that role that he’s starting today. “I love middle-inning closers. That’s been a big part of the success that I’ve been around in the past.” Yeah, well, try not to live in the past. That’s what propelled him to bring lefty Jose Quintana to the Angels, for yet another loss last night, when his “middle-inning closer” Mike Mayers turned a 4-3 lead into a 6-4 deficit in a hurry. Some reports say “Dylan Bundy” for the Angels, who’s been getting hammered lately, falling in line with what happens to most pitchers when they come to the Angels. Either, or. |
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05-22-21 | Mariners v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The Padres’ lineup is back to full strength. The Mariners’ bullpen is gutted by positive virus tests and absentees. The non-infected crew rose to the occasion here last night by… allowing 8 runs after starter Chris Flexen choked and allowed 8 of his own in 1 2/3 innings! Justus Sheffield is always an accident waiting to happen and even if he does well, the Seattle bullpen situation is not good. This is one of those instances where the Padres seem like they can exceed the Total on their own. It’s an Inter-league game, so the ‘A’ bullpen guys wouldn’t necessarily need to be called upon after Weathers’ night is done after probably no more than 5 innings. |
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05-22-21 | Red Sox v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Red Sox reward for hammering the heck out of Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola and the bullpen last night is to step in against Spencer Howard. This guy owes us money. He spent most of his rookie 2020 season giving the Phillies deficits to overcome, following big hype that wasn’t met. He had a 5.92 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in six starts for them last season. So far, they’ve let him throw just 4 1/3 innings this season and he’s allowed 4 runs on 6 hits. The Red Sox Nathan Eovaldi is having a decent enough season but as a fastball pitcher with good control, you can’t help but see 2 homers coming from Bryce Harper, who’s hitting .381 against Eovaldi. Hoskins, Joyce, McCutcheon and Segura are at .333, .300, .429 and .333 against him. |
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05-22-21 | Dodgers -160 v. Giants | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Since the beginning of last season, the Dodgers are 16-4 (80% wins) when Walker Buehler starts. He’s 4-0 vs. the Giants in his MLB career, during which San Francisco batters currently on the team have gotten only 13 hits in 66 at-bats (.197 BAA), just two of them for extra bases. Maybe this is why the Giants are “Undecided” about who to start against him? Because it doesn’t matter? An 80% pitcher’s odds figure to be less than 80% in this match-up, which would lift the Dodgers into an NL West first-place tie with the Giants if they win (although the Padres can beat the virus-depleted bullpen of Seattle and lead the division by one game after their 10:10 pm game is completed). |
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05-22-21 | Pirates v. Braves OVER 9.5 | 1-6 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units After pounding out 20 runs on 20 hits to do a psyche job against the Pirates pitching staff last night, the Braves only need to face Mitch Keller today. The Braves have been woeful against left-handed pitching but pretty good against righties. The Pirates’ righty Keller has a 7.16 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. Arrgh. Atlanta’s Bryse Wilson still hasn’t approached that 6 inning, 1-hit job he threw in the post-season vs. the Dodgers. His ERA is 5.50, his WHIP 1.61. |
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05-22-21 | Orioles v. Nationals -152 | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles have fallen a full 10 games below .500 following last night's loss in the series opener (2-8, -$530 last 10 days, with a 5.57 ERA among starters). The Nats have an edge with veteran Jon Lester (3.80 ERA) on the mound vs. Bruce Zimmermann (-$385, 5.40 ERA in six starts). The NL East is very competitive, and the Nats are in good shape, especially with Stephen Strasburg |
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05-22-21 | Penguins -101 v. Islanders | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
Rating: 10 UnitNHL Game of the Week For the Islanders, the intrigue extends beyond the growing disdain between the teams. Trotz expressed disappointment Thursday night with goalie Semyon Varlamov, who allowed the five goals on just 27 shots. Varlamov had missed Sunday's Game 1 due to an undisclosed injury and watched rookie Ilya Sorokin registered 39 saves in a 4-3 overtime win. In Tuesday's Game 2, Varlamov surrendered two goals in the first 13:07 of a 2-1 loss that tied the series. Varlamov was the Islanders' goalie for each of their first 14 games in the playoff bubble last summer. But after back-to-back losses in Games 5 and 6 of the Eastern Conference semifinals against the Philadelphia Flyers, Trotz benched Varlamov for Thomas Greiss, who authored a shutout in a 4-0 win in Game 7. Varlamov started all six games of the conference finals against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Trotz wasn't about to publicly identify his goalie Friday afternoon ahead of Game 4. But while he said upon reviewing the game he was less critical of Varlamov's performance, he also sounded like someone still contemplating a goalie change. |
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05-21-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -4.5 | 117-112 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 units Memphis lost 2 of the 3 games they played this season against the Warriors. They scored 105 a night vs. the Warriors, about 8 points below their average. Memphis hit only 29% against Golden State from deep and that is no fluke as the Warriors were third this season in defensive three-point field-goal percentage. In the game Memphis won against the Californians, Draymond Green only had 7 points and 2 other Golden State starters were a combined 8 for 27 from the floor. Steph Curry only played in one game this season against the Grizzlies but he went for 46 points hitting on 9 of 22 from downtown. The Warriors lost a heartbreaker to the Lakers on Wednesday. Despite not getting a ton of clean looks, Curry poured in 37 points. The Lakers used a swarming defense to entice Curry to give up the ball, especially in the first quarter, and his teammates didn’t perform. The ball stuck on the Golden State side with only 19 assists and the Warriors turned it over 20 times. Turnovers has been a concern for the Warriors even in the glory days but they turned it over 5 times more than their average vs. the Lakers. The assists are a different story as the Warriors were tied for first in the league in assists at 28 a game. Look for Draymond Green to be aggressive here and expect Curry to come out firing at the sound of the bell. |
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05-21-21 | Astros v. Rangers +110 | 5-7 | Win | 110 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Five days ago, the Rangers’ Kyle Gibson pitched 7 innings of 4-hit, 2-run ball against the Astros and left a 2-2 game. Reliever Joely Rodriguez came in and ruined everything, allowing 4 hits and 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning. Gibson, having a terrific season (2.32 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, an average of 6 innings per start) was matched against Lance McCullers in that game. Tonight the Astros go with 25-year-old Tyler Ivey in his Major League debut. Ivey grew up a Rangers fan living about 15 miles away from where the Rangers play their home games. That’s nice, he’ll have his people in the stands and all that, and perhaps that’s why the Astros targeted this as his first MLB appearance. But they can’t throw pitches for him. After Texas was swept in the four-game series at Houston last week — facing Greinke, McCullers, Garcia and Javier — Ivey has to be considered a cut or two below those guys until he proves otherwise, coming in with unimpressive recent minor league numbers. |
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05-21-21 | Twins v. Indians -123 | 10-0 | Loss | -123 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Instead of originally scheduled Kenta Maeda, the Twins are switching to Randy Dobnak, who has pitched only in relief for them so far this season: 14 1/3 innings with a 8.16 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Uh-oh. Since he doesn’t figure to go deep into the start, and the Twins’ bullpen is lousy, and four relievers pitched in yesterday’s doubleheader in Anaheim, and one reliever (Tyler Duffey) is suspended, and the hitters and fielders could be a little jet-lagged after they played a pair on the West Coast yesterday then flew overnight across as many times zones as is possible within the Continental United States, the team with the second-worst winning percentage in MLB (.349) could have landed in a better situation under better circumstances, ya’ think? |
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05-21-21 | White Sox -105 v. Yankees | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit MLB Play of the Day We’ve been through this drill before but let’s lay out the details never the less: The AL Central -leading White Sox arrive in New York with the best batting average against left-handed pitching (.297), the highest On base Percentage (.376) and the best Slugging Percentage (.486). They’ve had only 296 at-bats vs. lefties, compared to 693 for the Houston Astros. While it may seem like a sample too short to be serious, it’s an extension of last season when they were 14-0 when the opponent started a lefty. They are 9-2 in that scenario this season, averaging 8.6 runs per game when the other side starts a lefty. The Yankees comply with Chicago’s “go” situation, serving up Jordan Montgomery. Throw out his stats. The White Sox’ Carlos Rodon won’t be pitching a no-hitter like he did in April but he is enjoying a resurgence. The team is 5-1 when he starts. He last faced the Yankees in 2019, at Yankee Stadium, winning a 6-2 game in which he pitched 6 innings and allowed 3 hits. |
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05-21-21 | White Sox v. Yankees OVER 8 | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units If their average holds, then the White Sox would go Over this total on their own. They average 8.6 runs per game when the other teams starts a lefty (Montgomery). Of course, they haven’t gotten all these runs against lefty starters. They do pretty well against right-handed relievers, too. The White Sox rank #2 in MLB in runs per game on the road, 5.9. Carlos Rodon has a no-hitter to his credit and is enjoying a nice comeback season but there is a lot of right-handed power in the Yankees lineup for this lefty to tap-dance around. |
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05-21-21 | Orioles v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units With no DH, the Orioles, who have dipped to an average of only 3.91 runs per game, must face Steven Strasburg in his first start off the injured list. The last time Strasburg pitched fresh, he went 6 innings and allowed 1 hit to Atlanta. Good luck… some other time. The Orioles are visiting an opponent who is also in the Sub-4 Runs Per Game Club (3.85) and before the Nationals hitters figure out Jorge Lopez, he could be outta there. |
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05-21-21 | Capitals +1.5 v. Bruins | 1-4 | Loss | -190 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After three straight games decided by a razor-thin margin, the Washington Capitals and Boston Bruins know what to expect when they converge on the ice. Craig Smith's goal early in the second overtime of Game 3 Wednesday night continued that trend, giving the Bruins a second straight overtime victory, 3-2, in the NHL-record 12th consecutive one-goal game between the teams in the playoffs. Samsonov was thrust into action Wednesday after coming off the COVID-19 list with Anderson sitting out for a maintenance day. The former No. 22 overall draft pick settled in nicely and smothered the majority of Boston's chances in his 40-save effort. One momentary lapse proved costly, though, as Samsonov was slow to get back into position after playing the puck behind the net and Smith took advantage to score the overtime winner. |
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05-20-21 | Pacers v. Wizards -3 | 115-142 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Indiana came out and punched Charlotte in the mouth on Tuesday. The Hornets played like a deer in the headlights, the Pacers hit just about everything they attempted early and the game was pretty much over after Indy led by 24 points at the half. The Pacers did get a break when Charlotte’s starting guards were a combined 11 for 34. Despite Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook shooting just 16 for 43 from the field in the loss to Boston on Tuesday, the Wizards still cut the lead to 7 points at one juncture in the fourth quarter. The Wizards were just 3 for 21 (14%) from beyond the arc but they shot it at 35% from deep during the season. They should bounce back against a team that has struggled to defend for much of the season. Washington beat the Pacers without Beal at the end of March and they also beat the Pacers 17 nights ago when Beal had and efficient game and Westbrook had 21 boards and 24 dimes. In that May 3 game, Indy’s Caris LeVert had 33 points, 7 boards, 5 assists and 2 blocks. Caris will not play here. Washington also beat Indy on May 8 behind 50 points from Beal and 33 from Westbrook. Washington has lost consecutive games only once in the last month and a half. |
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05-20-21 | Red Sox +119 v. Blue Jays | 8-7 | Win | 119 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Untis The Red Sox evened the series with a 7-3 win over Ross Stripling, and they are nicely poised to prevail in tonight's rubber match. Nick Pivetta has led Boston to wins in 7 of his 8 appearances (+$690 with an ERA on 3.16). The Red Sox are now 9-5 vs. lefthanders (+$250) and they've been a big money-maker outside of Fenway Park (+$825). Steven Matz has been inconsistent (4.29 ERA) so we'll take the underdog price on the visitor. |
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05-20-21 | Twins v. Angels +105 | 1-7 | Win | 105 | 3 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units They’re making the Twins work hard for their money. After a whole lotta games against first-place Oakland and Chicago White Sox, they have to fly all the way out to Los Angeles from Minneapolis to play two games today against the Angels, before they fly back to Cleveland to start a weekend series tomorrow. Jose Berrios is slated to start Game 2 for them and he may be able to bail them out, but young Aussie Lewis Thorpe is the scheduled starter here, with that lousy bullpen behind him. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli could have saved our boy Matt Shoemaker for a start against the Angels, his former team, with that extra motivational edge. But no, he used him yesterday. it was just another move he could have made but didn’t, in defeat. And he’s made a lot of moves, in defeat. Quite often, a team that is dropping in class after losing many games to higher-placed foes will “wake up.” But that’s usually when they’re home. And the Angels are in the same boat, having lost a ton of games recently to legitimate contenders Tampa Bay, the Dodgers, Houston, Boston and Cleveland — 12 of their last 17, to be exact. Alex (“I’ve a Blister on My Finger!”) Cobb returns from the Injured List. No Mike Trout but they weren’t exactly a powerhouse with him and the Twins find ways to lose. |
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05-20-21 | Astros v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 23 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units MLB Play of the Day The Astros are hitting .284 vs. left-handed pitching, third highest in MLB with the third highest OPS. Oakland lefty Cole Irvin has been pitching well lately, getting his ERA down from 7.45 after two starts to 3.02 entering this game. However, the 7.45 after two starts was totally against the Astros’ lineup, against whom he totaled 9 2/3 innings while giving up 8 runs and 12 hits, whiffing only 5. So, good luck to him… some other time, of course. The Astros are awaiting the return of Framber Valdez to their rotation and until then, they must make do with a guy like second-season spot starter Luis Garcia in the rotation. He’s been doing fine but he is only 47 1/3 innings into his Major League career. |
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05-20-21 | Nationals v. Cubs OVER 10 | 2-5 | Loss | -120 | 1 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There has been a 12-14 mph breeze blowing out to left field at Wrigley Field and the nervous linemaker overreacted yesterday, making a rather high number of 9 for last night’s match-up between classy, veteran righthanders, Max Scherzer and Jake Arrieta. The teams combined for only 7 runs. Today, in full daylight, ‘The Man’ adds only 1 run to his Total as the starters change to non-classy, younger righthanders Joe Ross (Ooh! Ooh!) and Trevor Williams. Ross didn’t play last season and before that, going back three seasons, had ERA/WHIPs of 5.48/1.67, 5.06/1.31, 5.01/1.47. The Nationals allowed him to return to them despite this display of below-averageness, and he is giving them more of the same: 5.80/1.46. Javier Baez, Wilson Contreras and Anthony Rizzo are thinking, ‘Gee, wish we coulda faced this guy last year!’ as they carry .500, .500 and .417 Batting Average Against Ross into today’s game, in limited opportunities of course (6, 4, 12 at-bats). Meanwhile, the one-year contract of Chicago’s Trevor Williams is proving to be one of the worst $2.5 million investments in the history of mankind, with his 6.27 ERA and 1.82 WHIP after 8 starts, in which he has pitched a total of only 33 innings (that’s an average of 4 innings per start). And they charge people money to get through the gates to watch him. |
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05-19-21 | Blues v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | 3-6 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Taking nothing away from the performance of Colorado goaltender Philipp Grubauer, but the Blues didn’t generate many scoring opportunities in Game 1. Vladimir Tarasenko had a couple of prime opportunities in the first period but couldn’t convert, then the rest of the time the Aves did a tremendous job of clearing the puck out of their zone in quick fashion. The Blues are also expected to be without David Perron again, as he remains on the COVID-19 list. St. Louis GM Doug Armstrong released a statement on Wednesday that stated the team had “discovered discrepancies in Covid test results relating to multiple players” and is working with the league to address said discrepancies. Whether or not that means Perron will be cleared to play by game time is not known, but assuming he’s out again, the Blues will struggle offensively. Meanwhile, Jordan Binnington was sensational in net for the Blues in Game 1. I expect the Blues to tighten things up defensively in front of Binnington tonight but even if they don’t, he has proven to raise his level of play in the postseason. I’m confident he’ll play well again tonight. |
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05-19-21 | Warriors v. Lakers -5.5 | 100-103 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units “Can the Warriors offense score enough to upset the Lakers in the play-in game?,” a pre-game story in a paper wants to know. Valid question. Since mid-March, Golden State has averaged 1.13 points per possession, which is in Knicks/Spurs territory. But when you take a look at the opposition they played as the regular-season wound down, it looks like a Who’s Who of NBA Bad Defense: Washington, Sacramento, Dallas, Minnesota, New Orleans three times, Oklahoma City twice, all within their final 14 games since Apr. 21. They closed out the regular season with six consecutive home wins. They play this on the road, against an opponent that beat them here 117-91 on Feb. 28, then 128-97 here on Mar. 15. Assuming Lebron James and Dennis Schroder are healthy and good to go, the Lakers have the defensive length to hold the Warriors under 100 again, and full offensive capabilities – the latter of which they haven’t had in a while. The line has moved from an opener of Lakers, -7 down to -4.5. Okay, sure, “Lakers” seems too obvious all things being equal (and in the rebounding department and at the rim, they most certainly are not equal). Maybe somebody knows something about why things may not equal. We shall see. |
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05-19-21 | Nationals -147 v. Cubs | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs beat the Nats again last night, but the visitor has its best chance for a victory this evening with staff ace Max Scherzer on the mound. The veteran is off to a fantastic start in 2021 (2.10 ERA in eight appearances) and he'll be taking on a Chicago team that is only 10-17 vs. righthanders (-$715, averaging just 3.7 runs per game). Jake Arrieta has not looked sharp in recent outings (8.68 ERA last two) so we'll take the road favorite tonight. |
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05-19-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units The Blue Jays held up their end of the bargain last night with 8 runs in their home park, where they’d entered averaging 6.14. But the Red Sox ran into a buzzsaw. Some of them had handled Hyun-Jin Ryu in the past. But last night, they did not. Running into Ross Stripling can hopefully offset last night’s blanking. Stripling has yet to show that switching from the National League to the American will be good for him, with a 5.91 ERA and 1.69 WHIP so far, only 21 1/3 IP from five starts. Last season he pitched 15 2/3 innings for Toronto after getting traded to them, with a 6.32 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Not lookin’ good for the guy. |
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05-19-21 | Spurs v. Grizzlies -4 | 96-100 | Push | 0 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs had a tough schedule to close out the regular season as they lost 4 in a row but they were facing teams like Brooklyn, the Knicks and Phoenix (twice). But teams have been able to cheat on the Texans at times since they were 24th in offensive three-point field-goal percentage. Memphis finished the regular season just outside the top 10 in defensive field-goal percentage. They competed to the end of the regular games winning 5 of 6 and 6 of 8 and they beat Dallas during this time frame. Memphis lost to the Spurs on the opening night of the season when San Antonio was just more aggressive as they got to the free-throw line 11 more times against what was then a very depth-shy Grizzlies bunch. With more bodies on hand, Memphis beat the Spurs in back-to-back games when they had 71 assists combined in the 2 games. Memphis also shot 49% and 50% from deep in those wins. Jaren Jackson Jr. missed all the games with the Spurs this season but he’s been a big part of the Memphis success. Jaren has averaged 14 points and 6 boards. |
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05-19-21 | Marlins +119 v. Phillies | 3-1 | Win | 119 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Marlins have won 5 of 8 Trevor Rogers starts and the lefty has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched in seven of his eight, plus one in which he allowed 6 hits and 0 runs in a 6-0 win. He enters tonight’s game with a 1.84 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Full disclosure: Rogers faced the Phillies one time as a rookie last season. He struck out five of the first seven batters, but then gave up 9 runs on 9 hits in his 3 innings. Young pitchers tend to make their biggest improvement in their second season and Rogers has certainly been on that path. Do the Phillies own him after that one try, or was it simply one of those days, which has since been followed by good ones? The Marlins have won four of Rogers’ last five starts, the only loss coming when he hooked Max Scherzer. Zach Eflin is not Max Scherzer and has allowed more hits than innings pitched in four of his last five starts. |
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05-19-21 | Rays v. Orioles UNDER 8 | 9-7 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles have only 8 hits in 60 at-bats against Ryan Yarbrough of the Rays. The guys with the most at-bats against him — Trey Mancini and Pedro Severino — are hitting .143 and .167 against him. The Rays’ pen is the Ray’s pen — reliable. Baltimore starter John Means has been consistently good. Some guys follow up no-hitters by giving up 5 runs in 5 innings and losing. He followed up on his with 6 innings of shutout ball at the Mets. They’re giving him eight days in between starts just to be cautious with a guy they consider a #1 starter, who has three seasons remaining before he can be a free agent. His ERA is 1.21, his WHIP 0.71. He is striking out more than 1 batter per inning. The Rays strike out a lot. He beat them 2-1 here last September. |
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05-19-21 | Capitals v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 0 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Unit Total of the Week Consider that the over is 18-5-3 in Capitals last 26 games playing on 1 days rest and 6-2-1 in Capitals last 9 games as a road underdog. While the over is 4-1-1 in Bruins last 6 games as a home favorite and 4-1-1 in Bruins last 6 home games |
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05-19-21 | White Sox -118 v. Twins | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The long, black-bearded mediocrity called Matt Shoemaker is starting for the Twins, with his 6.62 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in his first seven starts for them. They tried to sneak him past us in the only early afternoon game on this beautiful day. Ah, nice try. His presence seems like a good reason to be on the other side. The guy can only pitch well against the Tigers. Who they playin’? Not the Tigers. Although the AL Central leading White Sox identity has been to hammer the heck out of left-handed starters into submission to the point where everybody and his brother knows about it, and Shoemaker throws with his right, last-place AL Central Minnesota has lost every game started by Shoemaker except his two against Detroit. The five losing scores of those games were 6-1, 11-3, 6-2, 7-0, 8-6. |
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05-18-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights -165 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Minnesota Wild and the Vegas Golden Knights meet in game two of their West division First round matchup. The Wild came away with a hard-fought 1-0 win in overtime in game one. They will look to get a 2-0 lead with a win tonight. Vegas outshot Minnesota 19-5 in the first period but couldn't find the back of the net. This is a must-win for the Knights and I like them to do just that in a big way. |
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05-18-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Blue Jays are averaging 6.14 runs per game in their ‘home’ ballpark in Florida, and 9.43 hits per game. Both numbers are #1 in the American League. The Red Sox are averaging 5.0 runs per game on the road, #7 in MLB away from home. Toronto starter Hyun-Jin Ryu has a good reputation and good numbers after 7 starts, like his 2.95 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. But only one of his seven starts has been in this ballpark! And the Red Sox Bogaerts, Chavis, Martinez and Plawecki are hitting .400, .333, .308 and .400 against him. Meanwhile, Toronto’s Teoscar Hernandez should just put a leash around Eduardo Rodriguez and take him home as a pet: 5-for-14 (.357) with 3 home runs. |
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05-18-21 | Mets v. Braves -131 | 4-3 | Loss | -131 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Although Undecided can really come through sometimes, for the Mets tonight he or she will have to overcome the absence of Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis and Brandon Nimmo from the lineup and although nothing has been said about him yet, it’s hard to believe that Kevin Pillar will be able to play after getting hit by a fastball in a bad, bloody spot last night. Mets thought that new ownership was their key to preventing injuries, a very Metsie way to be thinking. It isn’t. If they were the Padres, who played without four regulars in their lineup over the weekend, then they would sweep this series with outstanding pitching after overcoming the injuries to win 3-1 last night. But they are the Mets. Their pitching staff was already hit with injuries to Degrom and Syndergaard, who are on on the Injured list. Taijuan Walker seems set to join them after walking off the mound in the fourth inning of a 0-0 game last night, in which they burned possible-but-not-now spot starter Sean Reid-Foley for 3 hitless innings after Walker left. Braves lefthander Tucker Davidson is no sure thing but… |
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05-18-21 | Giants v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 0 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit MLB Total of the Day Oh, it would so easy to believe that the Giants’ righthander Anthony DeSclafani — allowed to walk in free agency by Cincinnati after five seasons with the Reds — would come back to Great American Ballpark with an “I’ll show you SOBs what you’re missing!” kind of performance and shut down his former teammates with a vengeance. DeSclafani’s first eight starts with the Giants have produced All-Star quality numbers: 2.14 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 41-11 K-BB in 46 1/3 innings. But he was never a dominant pitcher in this ballpark, in part because he isn’t as effective against left-handed hitters, and also because GAP is kind to left-handed hitters. The lefty batters on the Reds are currently hitting .273 (#3 in the category) with a .818 OPS (#2). They’ve hit 28 home runs in 587 at-bats, which is third most total homers by lefties. (For favorable comparison, Arizona and these Giants have 30 homers apiece by lefthanded batters, in 613 and 893 at-bats by them.) We can’t, with good conscience, accept Luis Castillo as a side play against DeSclafani. He’s been too horrible (7.71 ERA, 1.79 WHIP), including on April 13 in San Francisco when, staked to a 4-0 first-inning lead, he gave up two home runs in the bottom of the first to lefties Mike Yastrzemski and Brandon Crawford to make it 4-4 with eight innings still to play! But we can combine the potential power of DeSclafani and Castillo into an attack on the Total |
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05-18-21 | Hornets +2 v. Pacers | 117-144 | Loss | -111 | 2 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Injuries really took a toll on the Pacers and it started in the opening week and continued when Myles Turner went down. Currently they have three other key players dealing with nagging injuries. Indy split their last 10 games of the season and three of the wins in that span came against Cleveland, Sacramento and Toronto, a club that tanked about 1 month ago. Indy lost the season series 2 to 1 to the Hornets and in the win Turner had a good all-around game including 5 blocks. Myles will not play here. Charlotte ended the regular season on a bad note losing 5 in a row but one loss was by a bucket, another loss was in overtime to the thriving Knicks and the two of the other defeats came against the third and fourth seeds in the Western Conference. The Hornets play unselfish ball and are 5th in the league in assists. The Hornets are young but they are fearless. They ranked 2nd in the league in clutch offense, scoring 122 points per 100 possessions with the score within 5 points in the last 5 minutes or the fourth quarter or overtime. |
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05-17-21 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 6.5 | 0-7 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Rockies have played only 16 road games, fewest in what you call your Major League Baseball. They’re already 9.5 games out of first place in the NL West with the worst record in the National League, so having the most road games remaining means more misery following a 2-14 record in their first 16 road games. Away from Coors Field, they are hitting .224, which is actually not the worst road average in MLB. It’s #19. But their 9 home runs on the road is far and ‘away’ the fewest in that category, way behind the next-fewest, Detroit (17), who’s played three more road games. Yu Darvish has ace-like numbers after 8 starts” 2.08 ERA, 0.92 WHIP. He went 4 of the 7 innings vs. Colorado last week in one of their double-header games, allowing just 2 hits and 1 run. Since a lousy opening day start, here’s how many runs Darvish has allowed before giving way to the NL’s best bullpen: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 0. Jon Gray started that game against Darvish last week and gave up only 3 hits in 5 2/3 innings. He has a 2.93 ERA, 1.17 WHIP. The Padres are still missing 4/8ths of their regular batting order not counting the pitcher, although you wouldn’t have noticed by the way the Cardinals pitchers flopped their way around the Petco mound over the weekend. |
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05-17-21 | White Sox -100 v. Twins | 16-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Normally, we’d pass on this match-up after the White Sox rocked JA Happ five days ago in Chicago. The reason? On a six-day turnaround the other day — an in plenty of situations past in quick re-hooks involving other teams and other starters — lefty Mike Minor of the Royals made a quick improvement to help beat Chicago after they’d pounded him in his prior start. But the Royals were +175 in that game. Tonight the Twins — still with the worst record in Major League Baseball — are near even-money. That seems to be worth the target-against effort when the White Sox hit lefties as well as they do: MLB-highs .293 batting average and .853 OPS. They average 7.9 runs when the opponent starts a lefty. They got 9 runs and 9 hits in 3 1/3 innings against Happ last week in a 13-8 win. White Sox lefty Dallas Keuchel didn’t exactly distinguish himself with the big lead, but like we said yesterday before it played out in the ninth inning for an Oakland win against the Twins, the Minnesota bullpen is always in position to be your friend when you’re on the other side. |
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05-17-21 | Bruins -129 v. Capitals | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Having gone to OT, Game 1 could have easily gone either way. Down a game, the Bruins are going to fight with everything they've got tonight. They're 15-9 in the 'revenge' role. They're also 5-2 (+3.1) the past seven times that they were trailing in a playoff series, 30-20 (+5.9) their last 50 in that situation. The Caps, meanwhile, are 25-31 (-13.2) over the years, when leading in a series. Consider Boston. |
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05-17-21 | Giants v. Reds OVER 8 | 6-3 | Win | 101 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds are still averaging a MLB-high 6.88 runs per game at Great American Ballpark. Say, if they hit their average, they’ll provide 86% of this total! They can’t score 6.88 exactly, but we’ll settle for 6 or 7. They return home after sparing veteran righty Sonny Gray the agony of pitching in Coors Field, where they burned through the entire lousy bullpen to salvage a split of their four-game series. Gray went 4 1/3 innings in his last start, allowing 1 run. But 7 hits! And 4 1/3 innings is not enough with a bullpen like Cincinnati’s, whose ERA is 5.08. Gray’s WHIP of 1.46 hasn’t been this high since 2018 when he was struggling with the Yankees. |
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05-16-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers -10.5 | 116-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Are the Nuggets too good to be taking three possessions worth of points? They might be. But as they enter tied for #3 West seed with the Clippers, a loss by Denver tonight would guarantee that they wouldn’t have to play the Lakers in the First Round, and it would give Portland a win that would force the Lakers to be in the Play-in Tournament, during which Lebron or Anthony Davis could be injured (or, lose!) and lessen the chances of last year’s champion and this year’s favorite to win another title, which would improve anyone and everyone else’s chances. Makes sense? Yes. In a perverse and almost conspiratorial way but don’t put it past anyone. Nuggets have had guard-rotation issues and the Blazers are quality-guard powered. |
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05-16-21 | Rockets v. Hawks -7.5 | 95-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Teams can cheat on Houston since they are 28th in the league from long range. Atlanta is a well-balanced team and maybe more importantly they are 3rd in the Association in defensive three-point field-goal percentage. Trae Young has expanded his game this season and they have a vacuum cleaner in the middle in Clint Capela. When the Hawks beat the Rockets in March Houston’s Victor Oladipo had 34 points. Victor has moved on to South Beach. |
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05-16-21 | Cavs v. Nets -14 | 109-123 | Push | 0 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After the three no-show superstars all played for only the third time in yesterday’s home win-cover vs. the Bulls, for only 30, 30, 25 minutes, seems like they can all play again to overwhelm the rested but sorry-ass road dog, losers of 12 of 13 but winners of two straight against the Nets in January, when they were still 8-7 with dreams to be shattered. Double-revenge! |
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05-16-21 | Indians v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We can’t seem to stay away from this series. After winning two of the three overall selections, we’ll try to make it three outta four with ace Shane Bieber on the mound for the visiting Indians. Once again, we point out that these two teams are averaging the fewest hits per game in Major League Baseball. Hard to score a lot of runs with so few hits! Therefore, the Mariners wouldn’t figure to do any better than their measly average against a guy like Bieber, who enters with a 2.95 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, nice and angried up following two outings in which he gave up 9 hits in 6 innings to the Royals and White Sox each time. The world is divided into two types of people: those who think Bieber is washed up, injured, finished after those two outings, and those who think he’s due for 7 innings of 3-hit, shutout ball with 13 strikeouts and 1 BB, followed by the best pen in MLB. |
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05-16-21 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The Reds’ Jeff Hoffman lasted five seasons with the Rockies. Although he didn’t really distinguish himself, the fact that they kept him around from 2016 through 2020 suggests that they thought he could pitch well enough in Coors Field to represent them. Except, that wasn’t the case! His home ERA last year was 13.11. His home ERA in 2019 was 6.33. His home ERA in 2018 was 10.13. His home ERA in 2017 was 7.45. So why, why, why did they keep him around? Must have been a good ‘clubhouse guy,’ who knows? Therefore, we won’t expect a triumphant return. The bullpen behind him is not good. Neither is the bullpen behind Antonio Senzatela of the Rockies, who had bad starts in three of his last four and against whom the Reds he’s faced are 8-for-18 with 10 RBI, 1-3 K-BB. |
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05-16-21 | Braves +107 v. Brewers | 9-10 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers lost for the 8th time in their last 11 games yesterday (-$640), and they are on the verge of a sweep by Atlanta. Huscar Ynoa has been the ace of the Atlanta rotation (+$275, 2.29 ERA in seven starts) and the Brewers are averaging just 3.6 runs per game on offense. Freddy Peralta has been a mixed bag so far (4.09 ERA) and Atlanta has averaged close to 5.0 runs per game against righties. Easy call on the visitor vs. a slumping home team in today's series finale. |
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05-16-21 | A's +105 v. Twins | Top | 7-6 | Win | 105 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Play of the Day A’s righthander Chris Bassitt did right for us in Boston earlier in the week when he pitched 7 innings of 3-hit, 2-run, 10-0 K-BB ball in victory. So we’ll go back-to-back Bassitt today. Neither Kenta Maeda nor the Twins have done right for many people so far in the 2021 season, with Minnesota living in Detroit-ville among American League Central teams, having won a mere .351 percent of their games, fewest wins in Major League Baseball (13). Last-place vs. first, and last is favored. Maeda has a 5.08 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Last year those numbers were 2.70 and 0.75, so this season’s numbers are almost doubled! In the event that Maeda rediscovers his old form, there is always the Minnesota bullpen to account for, inventing ways to lose in late innings. |
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05-16-21 | Mets v. Rays +100 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Marcus Stroman to avoid being swept in Tampa. Sounds good, on the surface. But Stroman is discovering what it’s like to live life in Metsie-like existence, not getting run support when pitching well and not pitching well when getting run support. The Mets entered this ballpark, located in Yankee territory, on a seven game winning streak that had coincided with the firing of their two batting coaches. So, everyone figured that must have been the reason why they weren’t doing as well as expected. But the real reason is that great expectations and the Mets are usually mutually exclusive. The logical conclusion to having swept Arizona and Baltimore at Citi Field is to get swept on the road by the Rays by decent lefty Josh Fleming and the usual good bullpen brigade. |
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05-16-21 | Hornets v. Wizards -5.5 | 110-115 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Charlotte can struggle offensively. They only had 13 points in the final quarter in the loss to the Clips on Thursday. They were in the Big Apple on Saturday in a game where DeVonte’ Graham had 25 points off the bench but it wasn’t enough and New York held on. Washington will try to run this team out of the gym. The Wizards have won 3 of 5 and the 2 losses in that span were by a total of 5 points. |
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05-16-21 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Jose Quintana’s last start, 4 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball vs. the Dodgers in a 2-1 Angels win, could be interpreted as a sign that he’s back to being the good Jose Quintana. We’ll figure it as having been the calm before the storm. He walked 5 in those 4 innings and was lucky to get out alive. So seven days later, a lefty that’s barely hanging on with a 9.00 ERA, 2.14 WHIP, throws in Fenway Park against a lineup with the third highest Batting Average vs. lefties in what you call your Major League Baseball, .283. Meanwhile, the Angels’ Phil Gosselin, Juan Lagares, Mike Trout have averages of .400, .625 and .400 against Nathan Eovaldi. |
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05-16-21 | Islanders v. Penguins -133 | 4-3 | Loss | -133 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Two years ago, the Islanders swept the Penguins in the first round of the postseason. But this season, featuring a lineup with a mix of veterans and young talent, Pittsburgh went 6-2 against New York and won the division. After being swept by New York in 2019 and then stumbling through a stunning loss to Montreal in the qualifying round of the COVID-19-altered playoffs in 2020, the Penguins' three franchise players -- centers Sidney Crosby, 33, and Evgeni Malkin, 34, and defenseman Kris Letang, 34 -- are hungrier than ever to win their third Stanley Cup together. Consider that New York is 16-36-2 in the last 54 meetings in Pittsburgh. |
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05-15-21 | Indians v. Mariners -103 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Justus Sheffield has been alternating good and bad starts and comes off a bad one against a Rangers’ lineup that has hit lefties well this season. The Indians have not hit lefties well (.188 team Batting Average vs. left-handed pitchers) and they’ve never faced Sheffield at the Major League level. In his home ballpark, Sheffield has been much more effective. Opposing hitters have a .218 BA against him here, compared to .352 on the road. Indians’ starter Tristan McKenzie is doing okay but the team has lost four of his six starts and he has walked 8 batters in the last two, which totaled only 7 innings. |
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05-15-21 | Cardinals +121 v. Padres | 3-13 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day The Padres are missing regulars Fernando Tatis, Wil Myers, Jurickson Profar, Eric Hosmer from their lineup. They must have worked their rosary beads before last night’s 5-4 win vs. St. Louis because without those bats in the lineup, they got three walks and a hit batter in the third inning to get 2 of their eventual 5 runs, which were scored with only 4 total hits. Last night’s Cardinals starter Johan Oviedo should be sent to the minors forever and subjected to repeated taunting for not taking advantage of the situation and just throwing the ball over the plate, daring the subs in a lineup that had been scoring only 4.08 runs per game with all those currently absent guys in it to hit the damn ball. The rest of the Cardinals’ pitchers who were called upon last night should be docked a week’s pay for contributing to the team total of 12 walks allowed. Unbelievable, really. But tonight’s starter, Adam Wainwright, is a crafty old pro who probably won’t make the same mistakes when the prevailing situation is so much in favor of the Cardinals. The Padres’ Chris Paddack is no slouch but he has stagnated from his 2019 rookie season when he had a 0.98 WHIP. The club is 5-8 in his starts since the beginning of 2020 and his ERA/WHIP right now are 4.78/1.41. |
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05-15-21 | Cardinals v. Padres UNDER 7 | 3-13 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units With a 5:40 pm, Pacific Time start there figures to be some shadowy things going on in the middle to later innings at Petco Park, which is already a pitcher’s ballpark and should be more so this evening because those danged shadows do nothing good for hitters. Chris Paddack is a fine, young pitcher backed by the National League’s stingiest bullpen. The Padres will be without four regulars in the lineup, due to the new national fear. Although last night’s game went Over the Total (5-4) despite the absences of Fernando Tatis, Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers and Jurickson Profar, the Cardinals pitching staff chose last night to walk 12 batters. The Padres got only 4 hits. |
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05-15-21 | Heat -4.5 v. Bucks | 108-122 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units This match-up has a shot to be the same in the first round of the playoffs. Milwaukee is coming off a clever win over Indiana but it was not easy for any of the starters. All 5 starters played at least 30 minutes with Giannis Antokounmpo logging 35. Giannis was sensational as he only missed 4 shots from the floor but now the Bucks are facing a much better defensive club. Indy has given up 115 points a night while Miami is 5th in the league in allowing points at 108 nightly. These teams split back-to-back games early in the season and Jimmy Butler didn’t play in either contest. In the 12/29 loss only one Miami starter had more than 12 points, Goran Dragic only had one bucket and Bam Adebayowas in foul trouble. Miami is coming off a win against Philly and they looked very business-minded in that game. Udonis Haslem played in his first game of the season on Thursday and he was ejected within three minutes because he would not put up with any of Dwight Howard’s shenanigans. |
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05-15-21 | Phillies -136 v. Blue Jays | 0-4 | Loss | -136 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Phillies coasted to an easy 5-1 victory in last night's series opener, winning for the 8th time in their last 11 (+$630). Tonight they face a less less impressive left-hander (Anthony Kay 9.82 ERA in two outings) with staff ace Aaron Nola on the mound (3.59 ERA in eight starts). The Phillies are available at a very reasonable price and are poised to take 1st place in the NL East. Look for the visitor to make it two in a row. |
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05-15-21 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 7.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals are making a human sacrifice out of veteran lefty Mike Minor. They send him out there against the team that has been on a crusade of destruction against left-handed pitching since the beginning of last season only 6 days after he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings against them in Kansas City in a 9-3 loss. Minor’s current ERA/WHIP are 5.75/1.31. Sure, Chicago starter Carlos Rodon is enjoying a resurgent season with a 5-0 record, 0.58 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in five starts, most recently 6 innings of shutout ball vs. these Royals. But — but-but-but — those numbers are unsustainable and even if he has another blanking in him, this is a situation where you’re not gonna be surprised if the White Sox exceed the Total on their own because they average 8.7 runs per game when the opponent starts a lefty. |