Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-05-24 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -146 | 3-0 | Loss | -146 | 1 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees will attempt to keep Toronto's offense quiet by starting former Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman (1-0, 0.00 ERA). He made his Yankee debut Saturday and allowed three unearned runs on four hits in six innings of a 5-3 win at Houston. Stroman is making his second start against the Blue Jays since they traded him to the New York Mets in 2019. He faced them on Aug. 30, 2022 for the Chicago Cubs and allowed one run in five innings of a no-decision. Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi (0-1, 6.23), who allowed three runs in 4 1/3 innings Saturday against the Rays, starts for Toronto. He is 4-3 with a 3.57 ERA in 12 career appearances (10 starts) against the Yankees. |
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04-04-24 | Nuggets -3.5 v. Clippers | 100-102 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the Clippers defeated the Nuggets the last time these teams met, that snapped an eight-game winning streak for Denver against Los Angeles. That included three straight victories in Los Angeles. Look for the Nuggets to be favored by three. Denver is playing exceptionally well, winning 17 of their last 21. That has vaulted them to the top of the Western Conference standings. Meanwhile, the Clippers saw their three-game winning streak come to an end, but they are just 5-5 in their last 10, including losing three straight games at home. |
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04-04-24 | Warriors v. Rockets +4 | 133-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Rockets are performing like gold at the right time of the season and we’re not keen on stepping in front with a Warriors team that was on a 5-6 SU slide. Golden State doesn’t land in a money-making role either: The City enters off a same-season double-revenge contest at home against the Mavericks, and they’re just 8-13-1 ATS this campaign in games when coming off same-season revengers, including 3-9-1 ATS versus foes with winning records. Finally, Houston is 15-4 ATS with same-season double revenge versus .500 or greater opponents from game 68 out, including 5-0 ATS at home. |
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04-04-24 | Avalanche -154 v. Wild | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wild are having a rocky season as their offense has stepped up, scoring 3.03 goals per game. Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek have scored 67 goals and 77 assists to lead the top line but the rest of the offense has stepped up as well. Matt Boldy, Mats Zuccarello, and Marco Rossi have combined for 57 goals and 96 assists while defensemen Brock Faber and Jonas Brodin have added 14 goals and 51 assists from the point to open up the offense. The offense has stepped up but the defense has struggled, allowing 3.14 goals per game. Jonas Brodin and Brock Faber have combined for 8.1 defensive point shares but the rest of the unit has struggled, allowing opponents to find open shots on the net with ease. In addition, goaltender Filip Gustavsson has struggled with a .900 save percentage and a 3.04 goals-against average on 1192 shots with -4.2 goals saved above average. |
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04-04-24 | 76ers +3 v. Heat | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Heat have won three straight games, but two of those were against bottom of the league teams in Portland and Washington. The Heat will likely still be without Tyler Herro, and the 76ers are still unsure if Maxey will play. As for the 76ers, it looks as if they want to use the end of the season to get Joel Embiid back into playing shape. He was visibly fatigued last game, but he was still 12-12 from the line, and had a strong showing in just his first game back. Expect him to slowly return back to his normal form, which is dominating on the inside. Miami is small defensively, Adebayo is a tough defender, but is just 6'9 and gives up plenty of size to the 7'0, 280-pound Embiid. Even without Maxey, Philly still has perimeter players that can step up and score including Hield and Oubre. Oubre has been particularly hot lately, and has welcomed the bigger role by scoring at least 25 points in each of his last two games. Duncan Robinson has been cold lately, and Nikola Jovic doesn't do much in the starting lineup, Philly will look to steal a game here, and stay out of the 9-seed. |
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04-04-24 | Indiana State -3 v. Seton Hall | 77-79 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Conventional wisdom suggests that I go with Seton Hall in the championship game. They have done a much better job on the defensive end overall than the Sycamores in the tournament and have held the opposition to nearly 15 points less per game than Indiana State. The Sycamores feel like a microcosm of the current state of college basketball: they play fast, shoot the three often, and have a stretch five capable of scoring in the paint and on the perimeter. That fast play has led them to average over 90 points per game in the NIT. The difference for the Sycamores is, that despite playing so fast, they rarely turn the ball over. They get up more shots than the opposition and they shoot the ball at a higher rate than the opposition. This team has been playing with a chip on its collective shoulders since being snubbed for the NCAA Tournament. They are playing with that mid-level conference edge and they will be playing in front of a mostly Sycamore-driven crowd. Remember, the Sycamores come into this game at 19-1 in the state of Indiana this season. |
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04-04-24 | Marlins v. Cardinals -145 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the Cardinals began their season by going 3-4 in California against the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, the reeling Marlins lost all seven games of their opening homestand against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Los Angeles Angels. St. Louis starter, Lynn (0-0, 0.00 ERA) threw four scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his first start of the season on Saturday. He allowed four hits, walked one and struck out five before a rain delay cut short his outing. The Marlins will counter Lynn with left-hander Ryan Weathers (0-1, 6.75 ERA). He is part of a Miami rotation that is missing injured starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara, Braxton Garrett, Eury Perez and Edward Cabrera. Weathers allowed three runs on seven hits and two walks in four innings during a 9-3 loss to the Pirates during his season debut on Saturday. He needed 94 pitches to get 12 outs. I love betting on teams in their home openers when it makes sense. This one makes sense. |
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04-03-24 | Oilers v. Stars -115 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Edmonton is trying to chase down Vancouver for the Pacific Division top spot though they are solidly in second place in the division, five points ahead of Vegas with a game in hand. The Oilers have picked up points in each of their last four games but this is going to be a challenge. Dallas has won seven straight games, outscoring the opposition 29-11 in that stretch, and they allowed two goals or less in six of those contests. The Stars are rolling right now and they are at home, plus they have a little extra rest in their back pocket. Look for the Stars to win a tight one as they make it eight straight wins. |
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04-03-24 | Raptors v. Wolves -15.5 | 85-133 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Timberwolves will dominate en route to a win and a cover in this one, as they take care of business at home. Both teams are coming off of a game on Tuesday night and Minnesota's depth, as compared to nearly ten injured for Toronto, will power them through. Beyond that, the Raptors come in without a win in their last ten games, with those struggles carrying out into this one. Minnesota is one of the league's best and most efficient teams on both ends of the court and there's no doubt that they'll dominate at home, where they have one of best marks in the NBA. Toronto has only covered the spread once in their last ten games and they certainly won't make it a second time in this one. |
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04-03-24 | Rockies v. Cubs -1.5 | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rockies have gotten off to a forgettable start to the 2024 season, as they have dropped five of their first six games and three in a row while allowing an average of 8.2 runs per contest. After finishing a franchise-worst 59-103 last season, the 1-5 mark this year ties them with the 2005 and 2008 Colorado teams for the worst start in Rockies history.Hoping to start the turnaround for the Rockies is Wednesday's scheduled starter, Cal Quantrill (0-1, 9.00 ERA), who gave up five runs in five innings to the Diamondbacks in the second game of the season. In five career appearances against the Cubs, Quantrill is 1-2 with an 8.22 ERA. Cubs and Counsell will hand the ball first to left-hander Luke Little -- 0-0, 0.00 ERA in two games covering two innings this season -- in what likely will be a bullpen game for the pitching staff on Wednesday. Little pitched a scoreless ninth inning Tuesday. |
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04-03-24 | Thunder v. Celtics -8.5 | 100-135 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics take to the floor looking to even the score from a 127-123 loss at OKC in early January knowing they are 7-3 SUATS this century in this series when playing with revenge from a loss of 7 or fewer points, including 3-0 SUATS during the second half of the campaign. One problem, though, is Boston returning home from a six-game road trek, which would normally put them in ‘play against’ terrain, but the feeling here is there are too many mitigating circumstances working against the Thunder. We told you the Thunder was in a knock-down, drag-out fight for the West lead with the Nuggets and T’wolves and OKC shows up tonight in Beantown playing its third of five straight road games. The Thunder is also in the middle of a same-season revenge sandwich, last night at Philadelphia, and at Indiana on Friday. |
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04-03-24 | Red Sox -155 v. A's | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Red Sox starters were stunning through the first five games of the season, combining to allow just five runs (four earned) across 28 innings, good for an ERA of 1.29. Of the five pitchers who started, Pivetta (0-1, 1.50 ERA) was among three who worked six innings, while the other two lasted five. Opponents mustered 17 hits against the starting rotation, which racked up 37 strikeouts against just one walk. Pivetta is 5-0 with a glistening 0.82 ERA in five career appearances (three starts) against Oakland. Fellow right-hander Ross Stripling (0-1, 7.20 ERA) will oppose Pivetta today after allowing five runs (four earned) and seven hits in five innings against the Cleveland Guardians on Friday. Stripling was tagged with the loss, and he hasn't picked up a win since Oct. 1, 2022, while pitching for the Toronto Blue Jays. |
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04-02-24 | Clippers -1.5 v. Kings | 95-109 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With the way that Sacramento's offense isn't producing right now, this is a tough matchup. Especially without Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter, two key pieces for their rotation. Los Angeles' defense has been better lately and should hold the Kings under 110 points as most teams do these days. So, it'll be on the third-best offensive rating in the league to score at least 112 points to beat the spread. That should be an easy task, especially since the Clippers are third in three-point percentage against a Kings defense that's 29th against threes. Los Angeles is averaging 119.0 points per game against Sacramento this season. Take the Clippers to cover. |
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04-02-24 | Mavs +1.5 v. Warriors | 100-104 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dallas Mavericks continue to dazzle. They have won five straight road bouts and have also earned the win in nine of their last ten games. Golden State is also winning but their last two games were against the Hornets and Spurs. The Mavericks are 2-0 against the Warriors this season. They are the stronger offensive team, averaging 117.9 points per 100 possessions compared to 116.9 points per 100 by Golden State. The Mavericks' defense has been incredible, making them difficult to beat these days. They have conceded an average of only 101.5 points in their last five games. Four of the Mavericks' last five wins have been by double digits. |
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04-02-24 | Red Sox -142 v. A's | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Alex Wood's first start was horrible, and in this start (in the same building), he has an offense that should be even tougher. Oakland's bullpen can't be trusted to stop any bleeding. Expect Boston's offense to have a great night. Bello is facing an offense that was MLB's worst a year ago and didn't make any significant moves that project to change that for 2024. Through four games, the Athletics have drawn walks at a decent rate, and that's about it. Bello didn't issue a single walk in his first start, a strong winning effort. |
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04-02-24 | Georgia v. Seton Hall -4.5 | 67-84 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pirates have played this tournament like a team that is trying to establish a winning identity and culture in their program. The Pirates, after sneaking past St. Joe's in the opening round, have dominated each of their last two games and I expect that to continue on Tuesday night. The Pirates are hitting nearly 50 percent of their shots and 40 percent of their three-point shots. More importantly, the Pirates' assist numbers are on the rise in the NIT which indicates an offense that is clicking. The Bulldogs are playing well but also playing with little or no margin for error. They have won their three games by a total of 10 points and are giving up nearly 72 points per game in the NIT. I like the Pirates to roll here and get into the NIT finals. |
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04-02-24 | Rockets +8 v. Wolves | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Houston stood 7-2 ATS when looking to avenge a same-season defeat of 20-plus points (lost 111-90 here two months ago, and 122-95 at home during the first week of January). Minnesota also takes the court off a pair of weekenders, currently owning a 0-2 SUATS mark in this series when playing with a greater than .590 win percentage. The Timberwolves are wedged into a tight one here, coming off same-season revengers against the Bulls and Nuggets, with more get-even games on deck with the Raptors (4-14 SU and 6-11 ATS before Toronto) and the Suns. Since March rolled around, Houston was 12-1 SUATS in their last thirteen games. Finally, playing on any .500-plus conference road team with same season double-revenge from a loss, the last by 20-plus points, if they are facing a greater than .666 foe is 15-3 ATS. |
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04-02-24 | Capitals +120 v. Sabres | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Capitals have won three of their last four road games. They are playing well offensively, scoring six goals in their last two road games. They have also played well on special teams, converting 21 percent of their power play opportunities. The Sabres are good at killing penalties, but they’re not playing well defensively, giving up 11 goals in their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Capitals in this game. The Sabres have lost four of their last six games and two of their last three home games. They have struggled offensively, scoring seven goals in their last three games. They have also struggled on special teams, converting 15 percent of their power play opportunities. The Capitals have killed over 79 percent of their penalties and they’re playing well defensively, giving up eight goals in their last three road games, so expect them to keep Buffalo’s offense in check. Go with Washington to cover the money line. |
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04-02-24 | Utah v. Indiana State -160 | 90-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Five scorers versus three scorers. Indiana State is deep with talent, Robbie Avila gets all the headlines as he should, but this team is packed with high level scorers. The Sycamores have five players averaging double figures, and have a strong balance across their lineup. Avila is a big who can step out and shoot, Swope and Conwell are excellent outside shooters, Larry can handle the ball and Kent is a wing with size who can score and help on the boards. Utah's top player is Carlson on the inside, but Indiana State has their own big in Avila who can matchup with him. Avila is not an elite defender, but he is a smart player who can force Carlson into bad shots, and get him in foul trouble on the other end. Utah has been favored in every game this postseason, this is the first time they will play a team better than them. Utah has not won a game as the underdog since mid February when they defeated UCLA. Indiana State also had a tougher road, as Utah got the advantage of playing a lower seeded VCU team. The Sycamores may not have made the Big Dance, but they will make in to the NIT Final. |
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04-02-24 | Royals v. Orioles -162 | 4-1 | Loss | -162 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore looked excellent in their first two games of the season, scoring at least 11 runs in each game, and now they will be playing a pitcher who was only 3-9 last season. Alec Marsh is starting for the Royals, he struggled last year and only had a 5.69 ERA. The Baltimore bats will get hot in this one, as Henderson and Santander are both off to a quick start to the 2024 season. Baltimore has 25 runs through their first three games, while KC only had 13, and 11 of them came in one game. The Royals hit five homers in their only win, but have shown very little offensive production outside that. The Baltimore pitching staff has five more strikeouts than the Royals, and are beating them in virtually every category. |
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04-01-24 | Cardinals v. Padres -105 | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Six games into a 162-game season, the San Diego Padres are showing the type of offensive punch they so often lacked last year. Sunday's 13-4 rout of the San Francisco Giants marked their second double-figure game and gave them 45 runs, an average of 7.5 runs per game. They collected five doubles and two homers in the first three innings alone. San Diego will try to keep up that prodigious production tonight when it welcomes the St. Louis Cardinals to town for the opener of a three-game series. The Cardinals arrive in San Diego after a difficult 5-4 loss Sunday at the Los Angeles Dodgers. St. Louis was in position to split its opening series of the season after taking a 4-0 lead in the sixth but its bullpen coughed up the lead, denying Steven Matz a win. Matz's 5 1/3 innings tied Zack Thompson for the longest stint any of the team's four starters enjoyed in Los Angeles. That means the Cardinals could use a long outing from one of their free agent acquisitions, veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson, who gets the start today. Coming off a 15-9 season in 2023 for the American League East champion Baltimore Orioles, Gibson would like to improve on his 4.73 ERA. He'll make his sixth career start against San Diego, going 2-1 with a 4.28 ERA in the previous five and 1-0 with a 6.32 ERA in three outings at Petco Park. Finally, last year teams that played on Sunday night and had to travel seemed to never win when having to play Monday in a quick turnaround, and that's where the Cardinals are tonight. |
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04-01-24 | Hawks +3 v. Bulls | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Atlanta Hawks have been playing well recently, they have won four of their last five, while the Bulls have lost four of five. The Hawks get the extra advantage of the taking on the Bulls on a back to back. Chicago is playing two games in two nights with travel in between. They have a tough opponent in their opening night as well, as they must take on Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and the rest of the Timberwolves. The Bulls also have two starters on their injury report, as Caruso and Dosunmu are both battling injuries, which makes the second game of a back to back a likely spot to rest one or both of their important players. Chicago is not deep on the wing, as LaVine is out, and they do not have a big time scorer off the bench. Atlanta has adjusted well to life without Trae Young, they beat the Celtics twice recently, and Murray and Bogdanovic have stepped up their scoring. Atlanta has the 8th best offense in the league in terms of efficiency, while Chicago's defense ranks 21st and may be without some of their best perimeter defenders. Take advantage of the Hawks who are on a hot streak and get to play a Bulls team fresh off a battle against Minnesota. |
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04-01-24 | Suns +1.5 v. Pelicans | 124-111 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Suns have won the last two meetings between these teams, including the most recent contest in New Orleans. It would seem to make sense to take Phoenix in this contest, and that is the smart bet. Not only have the Suns won the last two, but they have won five of the last seven and are 5-2 ATS in that span as well. New Orleans has lost three of their last four against the spread. Phoenix has won four of their last six ATS, and they have been on a weird run on the road where they have alternated wins and losses over the last eight games. This sets the stage for a victory, and that’s what the Suns will do. |
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04-01-24 | Celtics -17 v. Hornets | 118-104 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Celts have had this game circled ever since they fell here in November as an -8.5-point favorite, and then again a week ago as double-digit chalk. That loss snapped an 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS win skein by Boston as a double-digit road favorite and we know they love taking frustrations out on the Hornets, going 25-6 SU and 23-7 ATS in overall meetings dating back to 2015, including 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS when seeking same season revenge. The Hornets are already making vacation plans and they bring a lousy 10-42 ATS mark into this contest in home games in which they lose as an underdog. |
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04-01-24 | Panthers v. Maple Leafs +119 | 4-6 | Win | 119 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’re looking at a potential first-round playoff matchup depending on how things pan out for the Atlantic Division title between the Panthers and Bruins. The Panthers are just 2-5-1 in their last eight games coming into this contest. Meanwhile, Toronto has won two straight and they have played solid hockey on home ice. Samsonov has righted the ship after going down to the minors and the Maple Leafs actually have some stable goaltending with him, Woll and Martin Jones on the depth chart. The Maple Leafs are at home and they are playing physical hockey of late. Look for Toronto to bang Florida around the rink and come up with the home win here. |
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04-01-24 | Royals v. Orioles -143 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Did the Royals empty their tank on Sunday? After scoring just two runs in their first two games, they broke out offensively in the series finale. I'm not so sure they can sustain their offensive momentum tomorrow, however. Baltimore SP Kremer was a solid bet at home last season and was 11-3 with a 3.70 ERA in 22 night games, as well. I'm also betting on the O's offense to come back to life. After throttling the Angels for 24 combined runs in their first two games, they managed just one run through seven innings on Sunday. Wacha's ERA was nearly 1.5 runs higher on the road than at home in 2023. His first start for Kansas City will be challenging — I would rather back Kremer today. |
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03-31-24 | Jazz +12.5 v. Kings | 106-127 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It is likely that Sacramento will win this game. They have defeated Utah three straight times and in five of the last six meetings between these teams. However, they are just 3-3 ATS in those meetings. In fact, Utah has won against the spread in two of the last three meetings in Sacramento. While the Jazz are an abysmal team right now, their last three losses have been by 10 points or fewer. They are keeping games close, which should give them a good chance of covering the spread. |
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03-31-24 | 76ers -10.5 v. Raptors | 135-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are dealing with injury issues as the regular season winds down though the 76ers will at least be in the play-in tournament while the Raptors are looking to next season. Philadelphia hopes to get Embiid back before the end of the regular season as his absence has taken a massive toll on the team’s metrics, not to mention their win/loss record. On the plus side for the 76ers, they’re facing a Toronto team that is minus at least three starters (Barnes, Poeltl and Barrett) along with a pair of their top reserves in Boucher and Quickley. The Raptors have dropped 12 straight, seven of which have come by double figures. Look for Philadelphia to pick up the win in this contest to right the ship, at least temporarily. |
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03-31-24 | NC State +7.5 v. Duke | 76-64 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units This marks the third time in less than a month that these teams will do battle. Duke won the regular season meeting before the Wolfpack vanquished the Blue Devils in the ACC Tournament as part of this magical run. NC State is drawing parallels to the 1983 team that Jim Valvano coached to the title with their late season run. It’s hard to argue with a team that won five games in five days just to get in the field, before dispatching Texas Tech, Oakland and Marquette to get here. On paper, Duke is the better team but in a one-game scenario, anything can happen, as we saw with Houston losing Jamal Shead, helping the Blue Devils win that game Friday night. Duke should win this game but it’s closer than expected. Take the points and the Wolfpack in this contest. Finally, #10 or worse Seed dogs of more than 4 pts are 13-4 ATS (NC State) |
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03-31-24 | Tennessee v. Purdue -3.5 | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Purdue has the talent to win it all and now that it has advanced far enough, it doesn't feel like last season's first-round upset is a cloud hanging over the program. Edey has dominated inside, but the Boilermakers are just as lethal from beyond the arc, as Smith (44.2 3PT%), Loyer (45.0 3PT%), and senior forward Mason Gillis (48.3%) are assassins. They're hardly the only long-range shooters on the roster, either. I expect Edey to have a field day against Aidoo this afternoon. The Vols' big man has been carved up by Hunter Dickinson, Armando Bacot, and others this season, and Edey is head and shoulders above those guys. While UT held Purdue to 4-for-15 shooting from deep in their November matchup, I expect a better shooting performance from the Boilermakers on this stage. Tennessee is solid enough on the perimeter to lock down most teams, but elite shooting squads have had more success. That includes Creighton (11-for-23 on Friday). I came away really impressed by how Purdue played in the second half of Friday's game. Gonzaga was as hot as any team in the tourney field, but it barely managed 30 points after halftime. The Boilermakers also held an efficient Utah State team under 38 percent from two-point range in the round of 32. The Vols can get hot offensively, but I won't bet on positive shooting regression from the first matchup (33.3 FG%). This is Purdue's best shot at a Final Four. Finally, #1 Seeds are 23-8 ATS off BB SUATS wins (Purdue). |
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03-31-24 | Angels v. Orioles -140 | 4-1 | Loss | -140 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels already had a team meeting to attempt to rebuild confidence in the team. This meetings rarely ever rebuild confidence, as the team knows things are already not looking good. Baltimore scored 24 runs in their first two games against Los Angeles, and now they are taking on their third best pitcher. Detmers had a 4.48 ERA last season, and the Baltimore bats will be able to put up numbers again here. In just two games, the Orioles have four players that already have three hits, their lineup is a well-oiled machine, and it starts at the top. Henderson has been excellent this season, and will keep the momentum going here against a Los Angeles team that may be hitting the panic button too early. |
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03-30-24 | Clemson +3.5 v. Alabama | 82-89 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Tigers come into this game having been an underdog in each of their previous three games and prevailing in each. A closer look at the first matchup between the two teams reveals some surprising similarities to the way the Tigers are playing now. Back in their earlier matchup with Alabama, the Tigers' defense was outstanding, holding the Crimson Tide under their scoring average and 40 percent shooting. The Tigers have held each of their three opponents in the tournament to under their scoring average and below their 3-point shooting average. The key to victory here will be to limit the Crimson Tide on the glass. The Tide are averaging over 44 rebounds per game in the tournament. In the first matchup, Clemson's front line held their own and matched the Tide on the glass with each team grabbing 41 rebounds. While Alabama is now 9-10 on the season against tournament teams, the Tigers are an impressive 9-4 against teams that have made the tournament this season. Clemson's backcourt is experienced and has played smart as evidenced by the team's drop in turnovers during this run. I think they will keep the run going tonight. |
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03-30-24 | Bucks v. Hawks +4 | 122-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This will be the third meeting of the season between these teams, with both games in Milwaukee. The clubs split those two games. Now they return to Atlanta where Milwaukee won the most recent contest between these teams, but the Hawks have won three of the last four. Atlanta is red-hot right now, winners of four straight games, and they are firing on all cylinders offensively, scoring at least 120 points in each of those games. Milwaukee has dropped their last two contests, and are 5-5 in their last 10. Milwaukee is trying to hold off New York for the second spot in the East, while Atlanta is fighting for their playoff lives. The Bucks may win the game, but it will be a close affair. |
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03-30-24 | Maple Leafs -139 v. Sabres | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Maple Leafs have won three of their last five games. They are playing well offensively and scored nine goals in their last three games. They have also played well on special teams, converting over 25 percent of their power play opportunities. The Sabres are good at killing penalties, but they’re not playing well defensively, giving up 15 goals in their last three games. They are also playing on consecutive nights and will be dealing with fatigue, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Maple Leafs in this game. The Sabres have lost three of their last four games. They have played well offensively, scoring nine goals in their last three games. They haven’t been as good on special teams, converting 16 percent of their power play opportunities. The Maple Leafs have killed over 76 percent of their penalties and they’re playing well defensively, giving up eight goals in their last three games, so expect them to keep Buffalo’s offense in check. Go with Toronto to cover the money line. |
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03-30-24 | Illinois v. Connecticut -8.5 | Top | 52-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Tournament Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units UConn is destroying their competition, as they won by 39 over Stetson, 17 over Northwestern, and 30 over San Diego State. Their backcourt carried them in the Sweet 16, as they got 18 points from Cam Spencer, and 17 points from Tristen Newton in the win. Newton was a First Team All-American this season and led the team with 15.3 PPG and 6.1 APG as a 6'5 senior guard. He has scored 13 or more in each of the three tournament games, with a high of 20 coming against Northwestern. Spencer is their outside shooter, he is a 6'4 senior guard averaging 14.5 PPG and has knocked down 94 threes on the season on a red-hot 44.1% shooting from deep. Their big man inside is 7'2, 280-pound sophomore Donovan Clingan, he averages 12.6 PPG and 7.4 RPG on the inside. Alex Karaban is another member of the sophomore class, the 6'8 forward can shoot from the outside and adds 13.6 PPG and 5.0 RPG. Stephon Castle is a 6'6 freshman guard getting 10.9 PPG, he had 16 in the win over San Diego State. UConn is currently ranked 1st overall in KenPom. They have the top overall offense in the nation in terms of efficiency and rank 6th in defensive efficiency. They play much slower than the Illini, ranking 319th in the nation in pace of play. UConn is 25-11 ATS as favorite and 16-4 road/neutral |
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03-30-24 | Angels v. Orioles -155 | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Canning has been a bit of a project, teasing Angels fans with upside but failing to sustain success. His first start of the 2024 season will be a challenge, as Baltimore is fired up and coming off an 11-run shellacking of LA on Opening Day. I'm betting the O's bats will come to life again after a day off on Friday, chasing Canning from the game early. With early run support, Rodriguez will shine, building off of his late-season success in 2023 (2-1 with a 2.64 ERA in August and 3-1 with a 2.17 ERA in September). |
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03-29-24 | Creighton +3.5 v. Tennessee | 75-82 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Only the ACC delivered more teams (4) in this year’s Sweet 16, but only the Big East remains unbeaten (6-0). With it, the Blue Birds bring a 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS mark into this contest the past two seasons in this tourney. On the other side of the court, the Vols enter with a wobbly 1-6 SU and 2-4-1 ATS mark in Sweet 16 contests, including 0-3 SUATS as a favorite. They are also a horrible 1-6 ATS laying points in this tournament to teams coming off a win in the Big Dance the past seven seasons. Finally, Creighton head coach Greg McDermott is 24-12-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or fewer points in his career against opponents coming off an ATS loss, including 3-0 SUATS during the postseason. |
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03-29-24 | Duke v. Houston -4 | 54-51 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units In this tournament, the Cougars have been riding a back-and-forth tightrope, alternating point spread results in each game. And if you’re willing to play the game, you’ll love knowing that No. 1 seeds who allowed 93-plus points in their previous game have bounced back with aplomb in the next contest, going 10-0 SUATS since 1992. And then there is Kelvin Sampson’s 19-5 record outright in his career in games after his troops surrendered 90-plus points in its last game, including 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS with the Cougars. This pretty much puts Houston into an Elite 8 context on Sunday. Couple that with the fact that there has never been a team to win this tournament that lost the first game in its conference tournament, and suddenly you find the Blue Devils playing with a blue dress, not what you’re looking for at this stage of this tournament. And not when you are 6-11 ATS in Sweet 16 performances, including 2-6 SUATS against .788 or greater opposition. |
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03-29-24 | Guardians -129 v. A's | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Guardians had a very good pitching staff last season and they have one of their best pitchers taking the mound in this game. The Athletics had one of the worst offenses in the league and they’re bringing back the core of that team. They didn’t have a lot of success against left-handers and didn’t play well when they faced Allen, who gave up two hits and no runs in his lone start against them. With Cleveland also having a good bullpen, they will keep Oakland’s offense in check. The Athletics also had one of the worst pitching in the league last season. Even though they added some depth in the offseason, Stripling didn’t look good on the mound last season, finishing with an ERA that was over 5. He gave up four runs in four innings in his last start against the Guardians and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. Go with Cleveland to cover the money line. |
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03-29-24 | Knicks -8.5 v. Spurs | 126-130 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks aren't just winning in recent games, they are blowing teams out. The Knicks have won seven of their last eight games and five of those seven wins have come by 12 points or more including the 44-point win over the Raptors on Wednesday. The Spurs have played better but they will struggle on the glass against the Knicks 3rd-ranked total rebounding squad. The Knicks' defense has been outstanding of late as well, now ranking second in the NBA in points allowed per game. The addition of Robinson and the likely return of Anunoby on Friday should give them additional presence both on the glass and defensively overall. Expect another comfortable Knicks win tonight. |
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03-29-24 | Gonzaga v. Purdue -4.5 | 68-80 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Gonzaga looked more like an NIT team than an NCAA participant. They had just lost at Santa Clara, dropping their record to 11-5 and their NET ranking fell to No. 46 – otherwise known as bubble territory. But the Bulldogs righted themselves quickly, ripping off 14 wins in the next 16 games, and comfortably made the March Madness at-large field as a No. 5 seed in the Midwest. Hence, despite the fact they are only 3-8 ATS in their last eleven Dances, Gonzaga is, in our mind, the biggest winner in the tournament to date. Virginia, Baylor and Kansas have each won titles in the last five tournaments, and they all failed to make it out of the first weekend in any of the four years they didn't win it all. It really makes you appreciate Gonzaga's run of nine straight Sweet 16 appearances. The bottom line, though, is the Boilers appear hell-bent on revenge for losing in the first round in this tournament to No. 16 seed Farleigh Dickinson. Should you have the urge to step in front of Purdue, we can only remind you about Virginia in the NCAA Tournament the year after they suffered the ignominy of becoming the first No. 1 seed team to ever fall to a No. 16 in the 2022 tourney. The Cavaliers stormed back with egg on their face and promptly proceeded to cut down the nets in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. |
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03-29-24 | Clippers v. Magic +2 | 100-97 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Magic’s magical season looks to continue tonight in Disney World when they host the Clippers. The Magic have richly rewarded their backers in Orlando this season, bringing a 22-10 SUATS record, including 14-4 ATS when laying points. And they’ll be anxious to lay them tonight as they look to avenge a 16-point trouncing at the Clippers while checking in off back-to-back revenge bouts with the 76ers. That is not good news for L.A., and its 5-25 SU and 9-21 ATS record as a road dog after facing Philly, including 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in the last seven. |
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03-29-24 | Lakers v. Pacers -170 | 90-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These teams were in a wild, high-scoring affair in the City of Angels Sunday night. The Lakers have won five straight though one does have to wonder how much action Davis and James will see with both guys dealing with lingering injury issues at the moment. Indiana is the highest scoring team in the league though they do have serious defensive issues as well. The Pacers are 21-15 at home while the Lakers have gone 14-20 as the road team this season, even with their wins over Milwaukee and Memphis this week. With the Lakers banged up at this point in time, you have to give the slight advantage to the Pacers as they find a way to prevail in this contest. |
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03-29-24 | NC State v. Marquette -7 | 67-58 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After a so-so 11-5 start to the season, the Golden Eagles have been flying high of late, winning 16 of their previous 20 contests while cashing 14 times in the same games. They’ll take the floor tonight, with the fact that Marquette is 17-1 SU and 13-5 ATS this season versus sub .666 opponents, including 10-0 SUATS the last ten games, knowing that head coach Shaka Smart is 5-1 SUATS as a favorite of fewer than 8 points against ACC competition. That and the fact they are 16-4 SU and 14-6 ATS when laying fewer than 18 points this campaign. There is no refuting the fact that the Wolfpack have been the darlings of the tourney to date, arriving at the Sweet 16 as the only double-digit seed. This, however, is where the meat begins to separate from the bone as No. 11 seeds have been roasted in each of their last three Sweet 16 appearances by an average of 13 points per game. Remember, with 4 starters from last year’s 29 win unit, Marquette was the No. 5 ranked team in the land in the AP Preseason Top 25 poll. |
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03-28-24 | Illinois v. Iowa State -1.5 | 72-69 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clones were as good as it gets at the pay window this season, going 26-10 ATS overall, including 26-2 SU and 23-5 ATS versus sub .800 foes. They’re also perennial money makers in this tourney with a 14-5 SU and 12-6-1 ATS ledger as single-digit chalk. Illinois has matched up with Iowa State just twice since 1990, going 0-2 SUATS with both losses by double-digits, which fits nicely with the Illini’s 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS mark the last nine game against Big 12 opponents. ISU ranks No 12 in the nation in Defensive Field Goal Percentage (40.17) and No. 4 in Scoring Defense (612 PPG). Iowa State gives up just over 61 PPG and the Illini are 0-5-1 ATS this season in games in which they failed to score 73 points. With Illinois head coach Brad Underwood on a 0-4 ATS slide in this tourney against .700 or greater foes, we're on the Clones. |
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03-28-24 | Ducks v. Seattle Kraken -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 117 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Kraken are the clear favorites in this contest, meaning there is not much money to be had by simply taking them against the Moneyline. Instead, it might be worth taking the risk and giving up the 1.5 goals. The Kraken have defeated the Ducks five straight times, including three straight in Seattle. Each of those victories in Seattle has been by at least three goals, as the Ducks have had no answers for them. Eight of the last nine losses for Anaheim have been by at least two goals. The Kraken ended their eighth-game losing streak with the victory over Anaheim on Tuesday and will be looking to still keep their very thin playoff hopes alive. |
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03-28-24 | Alabama v. North Carolina -4.5 | Top | 89-87 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units After a rocky 5-4 start, UNC went on a 10-3 run before the wheels fell off in a 4-5 February. With a puny 20-13 record following a 2nd round exit in the ACC Tournament, the Heels FAILED to make the Big Dance. Even worse, they decided to take their ball and go back to Chapel Hill, spurning the NIT to stew in private over one of the university’s biggest sports embarrassments. Fast forward to now, where the return of Armando Bacot and R.J. Davis took UNC from the pit of despair to a No. 1 seed in this year’s Big Dance. The Westgate SuperBook, however, did not offer as much respect as the Selection Committee when they gave the Tar Heels longer odds of winning it all than No. 2 Arizona. The good news for the Tide is they tickle the twine more than any team in the nation, averaging 90.7 points per game. The bad news is they get ripped for 80.9 PPG on defense, by far the worst of any Sweet 16 team. They also don’t have much positive history in this event, going one-and done in their last two trips to the NCAA tourney, and just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in this tournament versus No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. Meanwhile, Hubert’s Heels are 33-5 SU and 26-12 ATS as a favorite of 3 or more points against SEC opposition while Bama is just 1-6 ATS as a dog of 2 or more points this season. North Carolina is on a 10-1 winning run heading into this slugfest! Finally, UNC is on a 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS run in its last eight contests in The Big Dance – all since Hubert Davis took the reins three years ago |
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03-28-24 | Bucks v. Pelicans +1.5 | 100-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Don’t look now, but the Pelicans are right in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race thanks to the one-two power-punch of forwards Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Both of these All-Stars are averaging over 20 points and 5 rebounds per game. As such, New Orleans finds itself in a five-team chase for the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference thanks to a recent 9-3 winning run at press time. They also surrendered a season-high 141 points in a 24-point loss at Milwaukee two months ago, which works well with its 11-6 ATS mark in the series when avenging a same-season double-digit loss. On the other side of the court, the Bucks check in after hosting the Lakers on Tuesday in an overtime loss. After Laker looks, the Bucks are just 5-10 SU and 6-9 ATS in non-conference clashes. |
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03-28-24 | Golden Knights v. Jets -121 | 4-1 | Loss | -121 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This will be a great game between two teams eager to improve in the standings. The Golden Knights look to pull off the upset but the Jets look to step up and take over this game on their home ice. The Jets, who average 3.07 goals per game, should create plenty of scoring chances with Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating open shots with quick passes. The Jets should limit the Golden Knights offense with Josh Morrissey, Dylan DeMelo, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone and limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Connor Hellebuyck to make plenty of big saves. The Jets should win the game with a strong performance on their home ice. |
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03-28-24 | San Diego State v. Connecticut -10.5 | 52-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units UConn performed admirably as defending champs this season, going 24-12 ATS in all games, including 22-1 SU and 17-6 ATS since the calendar year changed in January. No. 1 seeds in the Sweet 16 who won and covered their first two games in this event are 24-2 SU and 20-6 ATS, including 5-1 ATS when on a 3-0 SUATS run. As for the 26-win Aztecs, they’re a money-burning 1-5 ATS as a dog away from home this season, plus 0-2 SUATS in this tournament as a dog of more than 8 points – by an averaging losing margin of 24 points per game. With Connecticut on a 5-0-1 ATS run in its last six Sweet 16 contests, stepping in front of the Huskies right now is like trying to cross a six-lane highway while wearing a blindfold. |
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03-28-24 | Clemson +7.5 v. Arizona | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units All three of Arizona’s wins in this tournament have come against opponents that were coming off SU underdog wins. Arizona is just 2-6 ATS as a favorite of more than 5 or more points in Sweet 16 contests. Taking it another step further, the Wildcats are just 1-3 ATS in this Tournament against foes coming off consecutive underdog wins. In fact, the Tigers have been dynamite as dogs this campaign, posting a near-perfect 8-1 ATS record. They’ve also not been afraid to get into the ring against quality foes, going 15-5 SU and 13-5-2 ATS this season versus .647 or greater foes. Zona’s recent history in this round, however, has been clearly disappointing: 4-8 ATS in Sweet 16 games, including 1-6 ATS as a favorite, and 0-4 ATS against opponents coming off a pair of SUATS wins. With the Tiger Train still thundering down the track – and head coach Brad Brownell standing 3-0 ATS in this tourney when facing an opponent coming off a win, we're on the Tigers. |
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03-28-24 | Angels v. Orioles -176 | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units While the Angels will be without their former two-way ace, the Orioles went out and added one as right-hander Corbin Burnes will get the Opening Day assignment for Baltimore. Burnes, the 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner, went 10-8 with a 3.39 ERA and league-best 1.069 WHIP (walks and hits to innings pitched ratio) last season. The 29-year-old was acquired in a February trade after Baltimore won the American League East in 2023 but was roughed up by Texas hitters in a three-game AL Division Series sweep. Burnes allowed two runs, one unearned, in 5 1/3 innings in his final spring training start. He gave up five hits and struck out four in 57 pitches and then turned his attention to the Angels. The Orioles will also have a new closer, 35-year-old Craig Kimbrel, signed as a free agent this past winter. Kimbrel, owner of 417 career saves, fills in for All-Star right-hander Felix Bautista, who will miss 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. |
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03-27-24 | VCU +8.5 v. Utah | 54-74 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With the way that this VCU defense is playing, Utah's fans won't witness the same offense that got them this far in the NIT. The Rams are not letting anybody touch 70 points against them. Meanwhile, the VCU offense is quietly efficient, especially on threes where Utah's defense is weak. An area where the Utes won't be able to pull away is at the free throw line, as this team shoots 65.5% there. That will give the Rams ample opportunity to close the gap if they're trailing late. This game will probably be tight throughout, but even if it's not, VCU won't lose by more than six. Take them to beat the spread. |
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03-27-24 | Pistons v. Wolves -14.5 | 91-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wolves don't have any reason for a letdown in this game as they march on trying to battle for the top spot in the Western Conference. The Wolves are 25-9 at home this season and own the third-best point differential in the Western Conference. The Pistons, meanwhile, have the NBA's worst record and have the third-worst point differential in the NBA. The Wolves should not have much issue slowing down a Pistons' offense that is just 19th in the NBA in field goal shooting and 25th in 3-point shooting. The Wolves also shoot the ball well from long-range and that will be critical against a Pistons' team that is just 22nd in the NBA in 3-point defense. Expect the Wolves to pick up their third straight win on Wednesday night and push the Pistons to their 8th straight defeat. |
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03-27-24 | Knicks -12.5 v. Raptors | 145-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Toronto is playing without Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poetl, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and three others tomorrow, but does it still have a shot at covering the 12.5-point spread? The better question may be, how will they stop hot-shooting Knicks guard Donte DiVincenzo? New York's sharpshooter scored a career-high 40 points on Monday, knocking down a team-record 11 three-pointers. 20 of his 23 field goal attempts were from beyond the arc, putting him eight made threes away from the lead for most three-pointers by a Knick since Evan Fournier hit 241 in the 2021-22 season. He's not the only Knickerbocker who's a matchup problem for the Raptors. Jalen Brunson scored 28 points on Monday and Josh Hart notched his sixth triple-double (11 points, 14 rebounds, and 10 assists) since January. The backbone of New York's squad has chemistry from their collegiate days at Villanova, making the Knicks a difficult team to play no matter the venue. They'll bury this depleted Raptors roster from three-point range, mixing in the occasional dunk and layup. I'll bet that chemistry shows up again on Wednesday, giving NY enough juice to win and cover as large spread favorites against tanking Toronto. |
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03-27-24 | UNLV +6.5 v. Seton Hall | 68-91 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units UNLV hopes to make it three straight wins and two on the road with a win over Seton Hall today. The Running Rebels have won their two games in the NIT by an average of eight points, holding their opponents to an average of 78 points. On the season, the Rebels are 189th in the nation in scoring. They are 75th in field goal shooting and 173rd in 3-point shooting. The Running Rebels are just 252nd in the country in 3-point field goals per game. Defensively, they are 80th in the nation in scoring defense. The Rebels are 122nd in field goal defense and 66th in 3-point defense. The Rebels are 287th in the nation in total rebounds per game and 74th in fewest turnovers. |
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03-26-24 | Cincinnati v. Indiana State -3.5 | 81-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Cincinnati may have dispatched a Missouri Valley Conference team in beating Bradley in the second round but that game was at home. The Bearcats were just 4-7 as the visiting team this season and their standout road win came over BYU back in early January. Losing Thomas and Lahkin takes two of the Bearcats top five scoring options out of the mix and makes it tougher to keep up in a track meet situation with Indiana State. The Sycamores rolled up a 15-1 record at home this season, including wins over Drake in the regular season plus SMU and Minnesota in the NIT. Indiana State feeds off the home crowd and their health carries them to a win in this contest. |
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03-26-24 | Golden Knights v. Predators -133 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This will be a great game between two evenly matched teams. The Golden Knights look to pull off the upset but the Predators have been red hot and look to dominate this game on both ends of the ice. The Predators, who average 3.23 goals per game, should pile on the goals with Filip Forsberg, Gustav Nyquist, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating open shots with quick passes. The Predators, who allow only 2.90 goals per game, should limit the Golden Knights offense with Roman Josi, Ryan McDonagh, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone and limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Juuse Saros to make plenty of big saves. The Predators should win the game with a strong performance on their home ice. |
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03-26-24 | Oilers -120 v. Jets | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Edmonton's offense has stepped up but the defense has also been great, allowing only 2.90 goals per game. Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm have combined for 9.7 defensive point shares and 176 blocked shots while Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci have combined for 5.8 defensive point shares to add depth to the unit. In addition, goaltender Stuart Skinner has been great with a .905 save percentage and a 2.65 goals-against average on 1365 shots with 2.8 goals saved above average. |
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03-26-24 | Warriors -1.5 v. Heat | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami holds a 7-game safety net from the 10th and final playoff seed, however they’ve lost six of their last ten games overall and have struggled miserably at home this season, going 13-21 ATS overall, including 3-9 ATS against Western Conference opponents. Meanwhile, the Warriors have been golden on this floor in the series, cashing in 12 of their last 18 visits, including 5-0 ATS when seeking same-season revenge from a loss of seven or more points. Golden State arrives holding down the tenth and final spot in the Western Conference playoff race, just one leg up on the surging Houston Rockets. With Golden State entering off a down-to-the-wire, last-second loss at Minnesota, look for the Warriors to improve on their sharp 22-11 ATS mark on the NBA road this season, including 10-3 SUATS the last thirteen games, as they slice up Heat on South Beach tonight. |
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03-26-24 | Lakers v. Bucks -8.5 | 128-124 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks should be able to power past the Lakers in this rematch. Both teams are among the highest-scoring teams in the NBA and, while neither has been effective on the defensive end, the Lakers struggle on the road defensively. LA is allowing 120 points per game on the road, ranking them just 25th in the NBA in road-scoring defense. The Bucks will dominate the perimeter, ranking fourth in the NBA in 3-point field goals made per game against the Lakers' 21st-ranked 3-point defense. The Lakers also turn the ball over far more frequently than the Bucks, ranking 19th in the NBA in fewest turnovers per game compared with the Bucks' 8th ranking. Look for Milwaukee to pick up the win |
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03-26-24 | Georgia +9.5 v. Ohio State | 79-77 | Win | 100 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulldogs have been outstanding against the spread in their last 11 road games, going 10-1 including their victory on the road in the NIT. The Dawgs are winning by cutting down their turnovers, averaging just 12 per contest in the NIT, and shooting 45% from 3-point range in their two tournament games. The Buckeyes are allowing the opposition to shoot 32% from 3-point range in their two wins thus far but are allowing 84.5 points per game in their two wins. They are also being outscored by four points in bench scoring, while the Bulldogs' bench has outscored the opposition's bench 58-9 in their two wins. Ride with the Dawgs here to keep their NIT success going. |
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03-25-24 | 76ers v. Kings -9 | 96-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sacramento is currently in the heat of Western Conference playoff chase, in a three way in a battle with Phoenix and Dallas for the No. 6 seed at press time, with each team sporting 29 losses this season.The bottom line is they can’t afford to take any backward steps at this stage of the season. Sacramento will take the floor tonight looking to get even from a 112-93 thrashing in Philly back in January, marking its tenth straight loss to the Sixers in this series. With the Sixers just 4-8 ATS in the second of back-to-backers with no rest this season, including 1-5 ATS away, it’s time for the Kings to put a halt to Philly’s dominance tonight. |
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03-25-24 | Golden Knights v. Blues +1.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The offense has struggled but the defense also disappointed this season, allowing 3.01 goals per game. Nick Leddy and Colton Parayko have combined for 8.4 defensive point shares but the rest of the unit has struggled, allowing opponents to find open shots on the net with ease. The bright spot has been the play of goaltender Jordan Binnington who has a .912 save percentage and a 2.85 goals-against average on 1542 shots with 13.0 goals saved above average. Binnington has won three of his last four starts and has posted a solid .926 saves mark so far in March. Additionally, St. Louis is 6-1 in its past seven games. |
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03-25-24 | Celtics -10 v. Hawks | 118-120 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This Celtics team isn't just winning but dominating on most nights. They've been doing it shorthanded lately, and that won't be as much of an issue on Monday. As for Atlanta, there are already multiple key pieces ruled out for this one, including Trae Young. So, expect a Boston squad that is already +18 in this season series to win by double-digits. Atlanta relies on their offense, but they've only reached 115 points thrice in their last nine games. Boston is second in defensive rating among NBA teams. There isn't a more efficient offense than the Celtics', who will face no resistance from Atlanta. Take the Celtics to cover the spread. |
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03-25-24 | Nets -6.5 v. Raptors | 96-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Brooklyn is the healthier team, which is saying something, as the Nets are playing without Ben Simmons, Cam Johnson, and three other players. Toronto is going to be without Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poetl, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and three others tomorrow. That's a lot of talent that isn't taking the court for the home team, especially considering Toronto traded its best player, Pascal Siakam, earlier this season. Will the Nets coast to a victory? Probably not, but they're still my best bet to cover the spread. Brooklyn can knock down the three-ball, especially when Cam Thomas is in a groove and the Raptors rank 23rd in opponent 3PT%. Their rim defense is also weak (23rd in opponent rim FG%). With Thomas and Bridges leading the way, the Nets have enough offensive firepower to cover as five-point favorites Monday in Canada. |
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03-24-24 | Iowa v. Utah -5 | 82-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams hung some hefty point totals in their first round games and this will be an entertaining contest. Iowa has gone just 4-8 on the road this season, so they will have to deal with a hostile environment. Utah was a stellar 15-2 at home on the year, including wins over BYU, UCLA, Oregon and suffered a triple-overtime loss to Arizona. The Utes are playing solid basketball at home and they are better on the defensive end of the floor than Iowa, who has been ridiculously leaky in that regard. Look for the home court advantage to pay dividends for the Utes as they earn the win here to advance. |
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03-24-24 | Texas A&M +10.5 v. Houston | 95-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Aggies only lost by four on a neutral floor against this team earlier in the season. Texas A&M's rebounding gave Houston problems. The Aggies protect the ball well also, which is why the turnover battle was even in that game. Asking the Aggies to keep this game within single digits isn't an issue at all. Especially since Houston's weak free throw shooting will give Texas A&M extra life late in the contest. Efficiency from the floor may cost the Aggies the game, but they'll have a shot at winning in the waning moments. |
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03-24-24 | Northwestern v. Connecticut -14 | 58-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Connecticut ranks as the best team in the country. The Huskies are 1st in offensive efficiency, 11th in defensive efficiency, and 324th in tempo (schedule-adjusted). They're 15th in field goal percentage (49.2%), 10th in opponent field goal percentage (39.8%), and 2nd in opponent rebounds (26.0 per game). UConn also ranks first nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.89). |
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03-24-24 | VCU v. South Florida -145 | 70-65 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Having home-court advantage is huge for the South Florida Bulls in this one. As is their offense, which has significantly better ball security in this one. Those edges should be enough for USF to advance again. The Bulls have one of the few defenses in the NIT that can force misses at the same level as VCU. USF's incredible three-point shooting will test the Rams all night long. Expect USF to win by at least three points to keep their season alive. |
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03-24-24 | Grand Canyon v. Alabama -5.5 | 61-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The thing about Alabama is that the relentless nature of the team's play eventually wears down the opposition. It proved true in their first tournament game as the Cougars hung in for a while but were eventually worn down by the pace of play and the relentless rebounding and perimeter shooting of the Tide. Grand Canyon has been a plus defensive team this season but has not played teams that even approach the tenacity of the Crimson Tide. While the Antelopes are good on the perimeter defensively, they will be less than familiar with Alabama's penchant for launching threes off of the fastbreak. The Antelopes are not pushovers by any means, ranked 55th according to KenPom, but they don't have the depth to keep up with Alabama for 40 minutes. It will be close for a good portion of the game thanks to Grand Canyon's ability to defend in the halfcourt, shoot at a high rate, and rebound. Eventually, however, like the College of Charleston, the Antelopes will wear down and be knocked off by the Tide. |
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03-24-24 | Clemson +4.5 v. Baylor | 72-64 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These teams are built similarly, slowing the game down and relying on their offense to optimize the limited possessions. The rebounding battle in this game should be about even. Clemson will probably have a slight edge in ball security. The reason that the Tigers will bring this down to the wire is that their defense is far better at forcing missed shots. Baylor's defense has put on a show against weaker teams recently, but for the season the Bears did not force many misses. Expect Clemson to fight until the end of Sunday's game. They may not win, but they won't lose by multiple possessions. |
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03-24-24 | Panthers -160 v. Flyers | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Flyers look to step up on their home ice but the Panthers are having a remarkable season and look to take over this game from the first period. The Panthers, who average 3.22 goals per game, should create plenty of scoring chances with Sam Reinhart, Matthew Tkachuk, and the rest of the forward unit controlling the puck in the offensive zone and creating open shots with quick passes. The Panthers should limit a Flyers offense that averages only 2.91 goals per game with Gustav Forsling, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone and limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Anthony Stolarz to make plenty of big saves. The Panthers should win the game with a strong performance on the road. |
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03-24-24 | Georgia v. Wake Forest -9.5 | 72-66 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Demon Deacons have been dominant at home this season, particularly on the offensive end. They should have a field day against the Bulldogs and their 239th-ranked scoring defense in this one. Georgia's only advantage in this game is on the glass but that might not be as big an issue against a Wake Forest team that ranks 31st in the country in shooting percentage. I expect Wake Forest to get out and play aggressively and put up a big number against a Georgia team that just won its first postseason game in seven years. This one could get away from the Bulldogs early and they simply don't have the firepower to get back in the game. |
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03-24-24 | Minnesota v. Indiana State -7.5 | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Minnesota Golden Gophers struggled late in the regular season where they lost four of their last five games. They lost by 10 points in their first game in the Big Ten conference tourney. Meanwhile, the Indiana State Sycamores made it to the finals of the MVC tourney and have won seven of their last eight games. Indiana State is the superior offensive squad here by a big margin. Minnesota is only averaging 114.2 points per 100 possessions compared to 119.2 points per 100 by Indiana State, good for 15th in the country. When it comes to defense, the Sycamores have slightly better numbers. Also, this is not a neutral site game. The Sycamores are on their home court where they have only lost one game all season. Four of their last five wins have occurred by at least 10 points. |
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03-24-24 | Colorado v. Marquette -3.5 | 77-81 | Win | 100 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Marquette had their issues in the opening half of their first-round game against Western Kentucky but turned things on in the second half to pull away and earn the victory. The Golden Eagles come into the game 26-9 overall and went 14-6 in the Big East in the regular season. Against Western Kentucky, Marquette led by as many as nine in the first half before giving up an 18-5 run over the final 6:54 of the first half to trail by seven at intermission. The Golden Eagles turned it on in the second half, outscoring Western Kentucky 51-26 to win going away. Marquette shot 47.8% from the field, including 13 of 36 from three-point range, and lost the rebounding battle 44-37 in the contest. Kam Jones poured in 28 points to lead the Golden Eagles in the win. |
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03-23-24 | Nuggets -12 v. Blazers | 114-111 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets have dominated Portland of late, winning six straight and eight of the last nine. They have also done so with pretty sizable victories, winning four of the last 6 by 11 points or more. That included a 15-point victory the last time these teams met in Portland. With the Trail Blazers playing on Friday and with so many injuries, this should be an exhausted Portland club. They simply cannot keep up with Denver, especially if Jokic is healthy. |
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03-23-24 | Oregon v. Creighton -4.5 | 73-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blue Jays have enough talent to derail the Ducks' momentum on Saturday, and I feel confident they'll play well enough to cover, too. Oregon has players, but it lacks the cohesiveness Creighton has. The Ducks are playing better on the fly, but the Blue Jays have been soaring together for years. The battle between Dante and Kalkbrenner will be exciting, but I'm more interested in the back-and-forth action between Oregon and Creighton's guards. Couisnard made a statement against his former team, and Shelstad has played like an upperclassman, but the former is a streaky, inefficient scorer, and the latter is still a frosh. The Blue Jays' guards are more experienced and won't wilt under pressure down the stretch. I also believe CU's rebounding advantage will be challenging for UO to overcome. Bet on the Blue Jays to win and cover in gritty fashion. |
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03-23-24 | Duquesne +10.5 v. Illinois | 63-89 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dukes have now won nine straight games including a sweep through the Atlantic 10 Tournament and their round one victory. In those five games, they are scoring 64 points per game while allowing just 61.6 points per game. They are being led by their two veteran guards, Clark and Grant. Clark is scoring 14.8 points per game during this postseason stretch while Grant paces the Dukes with an average of 16.8 points per game. The Dukes are now 2-3 vs. tournament teams with their win over BYU on Thursday. They will once again lean on a defense that is 29th in the nation in scoring defense and 53rd against the 3-point shot. |
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03-23-24 | Oakland v. NC State -6 | 73-76 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units NC State is the hottest team in the country. I won't pick against the Pack on Saturday, even against an Oakland team coming off its biggest win in school history. The Golden Grizzlies will not benefit from playing a sub-par defense tomorrow, as they did in the first round versus Kentucky. The Wolfpack held Texas Tech under 25 percent from three-point range in their round of 64 game and will take away the three-ball tomorrow, making the Grizz too one-dimensional. I feel confident NC State can hold Oakland's bigs in check (16 points in the paint vs. UK) after giving up just 20 points in the paint vs. TTU. Offensively, North Carolina State will dominate inside. Burns will attack Oakland's conference POY Townsend, who will pick up fouls and surrender too many points against NC State's bruising big man. With a substantial scoring advantage at the rim, the three-point shot will open up for Horne and others, burying the Golden Grizzlies' season. |
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03-23-24 | Washington State v. Iowa State -6 | 56-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Cyclones are on the verge of a Sweet 16 appearance as they get set to square off with Washington State today. A Big 12 Title, 29 wins, and a Sweet 16 appearance will certainly put this team among the greatest in school history. They come into this matchup ranked 92nd in the nation in scoring offense. The Cyclones are 52nd in field goal shooting and 106th from 3-point range. They are just 252nd in 3-point field goals made per game. The Cyclones make their biggest imprint on the defensive end. They are 4th in the country in scoring defense. The Cyclones are eighth in field goal defense and 58th in 3-point defense. They are just 287th on the glass but a solid 70th in the nation in the fewest turnovers per game. |
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03-23-24 | Gonzaga -3.5 v. Kansas | 89-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units These teams are both playing well but the Gonzaga Bulldogs should be able to win here and cover the spread. With the loss of Kevin McCullar Jr. for the tournament, it is tough to expect the Jayhawks to do well here. Graham Ike could slow down what Hunter Dickinson is able to do in the paint, while taking advantage of less defense for Kansas at the other end. When looking at KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin, the Bulldogs are 12th in college basketball with a +22.61 rating while the Jayhawks are 24th with a +18.61 rating. All in all, go with the Gonzaga Bulldogs to win by multiple possessions. |
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03-23-24 | Jets -130 v. Islanders | 3-6 | Loss | -130 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The defenses as of late show a significant gap as Winnipeg is giving up just 1.75 goals in their previous four games while New York is allowing 4.6 goals in their last five games. The ability to not let the opposition get shots on goal is critical and there is a difference here as well throughout the season as the Jets have 29.6 shots on goal allowed per game while the Islanders have 32.9. With Connor Hellebuyck in the net as well, the Winnipeg Jets are the easy choice here. |
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03-23-24 | Bruins -145 v. Flyers | 2-3 | Loss | -145 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston is leading the NHL with 97 points and has a three-point lead in the Atlantic division over Florida. The Bruins are 6-3-1 over the last 10 games and on the road this season have an impressive 18-6-9 record. Philadelphia is just 4-4-2 over its last 10 games played and at home is not bad but is not dominating at 18-14-3. Boston has a pair of goalies that have seen nearly equal time with Jeremy Swayman having 22 wins in 39 appearances with a 2.57 goals against average and .917 save percentage. Linus Ullmark has 19 victories in 34 appearances with a 2.64 goals against average and .914 save percentage. Boston is 2-0 in two meetings head to head with Philadelphia this season, outscoring Philadelphia by a combined 12-7. |
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03-23-24 | Dayton v. Arizona -9 | 68-78 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This game is going to be a tightly contested matchup with two teams that have solid players leading the program. However, Arizona’s Ballo should be able to slow down Dayton’s Holmes down low and that will be a massive difference in terms of against the spread as Dayton is a good 17-15 ATS while Arizona is 21-11-2 ATS thus far. The Wildcats’ offense is the best part of either team and the Flyers’ defense will not be able to contain the Wildcats. Dayton was fortunate to win their first-round game. With Arizona’s size and rebounding ability, go with the Arizona Wildcats to cover the spread and win by double digits. |
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03-22-24 | Grand Canyon +6 v. St. Mary's | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Gaels bring a 5-9 ATS ledger into this fray in games after zipping past the Zags. They’ve also been vulnerable in the NCAA tourney, dropping nine of fifteen games both outright and against the spread. And they’ll likely have their hands full here against the upstart 29-win Antelopes, champions of the Western Athletic Conference for the third time in the past four seasons. Grand Canyon also brings an impressive array of team stats, ranking in the Top 20 overall in Defensive Field Goal Percentage and Win Margin. And we’d be remiss if we didn’t mention that this year’s resume includes wins over 24-win San Diego State and 23-win San Francisco. Additionally, playing against any opening round NCAA Tournament favorite coming off an upset win in its conference championship game if they beat the spread by more than 10 points and they are facing a foe coming off a SUATS win is 10-0 ATS. Finally, Canyon has been grand in games when coming off consecutive SUATS wins when facing sub .900 opposition, going 18-6 SUATS, including 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS when the Lopes sport an .860 or greater win percentage. |
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03-22-24 | 76ers v. Lakers -7.5 | 94-101 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Lebron is 4-1 ATS in his career from Game 70 out during the regular season when playing with same-season revenge from a loss of 29-plus points. Life hasn’t been the same for the Sixers since the loss of the Big Man, Joel Embiid. They were 26-7 with him in the lineup this season, but just 11-21 without him at press time. Philly was on a 1-5 SU skid as well heading into last weekend and will have to do battle with Charlotte, Miami and Phoenix before landing in the City of Angels. The bottom line in tonight’s contest? The Lakers dole out $88 million combined annually to LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and THIS is the time of the season when they really earn their money. |
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03-22-24 | TCU v. Utah State +4 | 72-88 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Trying to separate 8-and-9 seeds is like splitting up conjoined twins. You never know how successful you’re going to be. No. 8 seeds are 90-86 overall against No. 9 seeds in this tournament. When it comes to the spread, the 8-seeds are 24-22-1 ATS when taking points, including 4-0 SUATS since 2000 with a .800 or greater record. That being the case, the Aggies enter 16-0 outright this season against .666 or fewer foes, while TCU is just 2-4 ATS this campaign when going up against .655 or better opponents. We can’t argue with numbers like those. |
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03-22-24 | Seattle Kraken -104 v. Coyotes | 1-2 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After a humiliating homestand, look for the Kraken to lick their wounds and get back in the win column. They lost in a shootout the last time these teams played, but they had beaten the Coyotes in the previous four meetings and are 2-0-1 in the last three in Arizona. The Coyotes are extremely inconsistent right now and so it is not surprising that oddsmakers are unsure of how to call this game. They are 5-5 in their last 10, scoring 29 goals while giving up 33. Neither team has much to play for but pride and the Kraken clearly want to erase the bad taste of an abysmal homestand. |
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03-22-24 | James Madison +5.5 v. Wisconsin | 72-61 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wisconsin was just 2-9-1 ATS in games when coming off a loss this season, including 0-3 ATS in games outside the Big Ten. They also carry the uncertainty of being a No. 5 seed going against a No. 12 seed. Like its football brethren, JMU is making a strong splash in its second year of Division 1 competition as they wrapped up a second 20-win season. Looking over their stat sheet, it was anything but a fluke as they ranked 8th in Scoring Margin, 10th in Scoring Offense, and 14th in Turnover Margin. Hey, it’s why they were one of only THREE teams to win 30 games this season… and note these 10 teams featured rosters dotted with the oldest players, by age: St. Bonaventure, Washington, TCU, North Carolina, St. John’s, Nevada, James Madison, Tulane, Texas, and Seton Hall. Together these teams went 216-111 SU and 166-156-5 ATS for the season, with only one team (the 14-17 Green Wave) failing to produce a winning record. Finally, this same contingent went 20-13 ATS as an underdog when coming off a loss, including 16-7 ATS as dogs of +3 or more points. With the Dukes on the list, a take is in order here |
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03-22-24 | Longwood v. Houston -23.5 | 46-86 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Safe to say, the Cougars blew it. They were in the rocking chair and had the No. 1 overall seed of the tournament locked up until Cyclone rolled in and blew it all to smithereens when they scored a season-low 41 points in a 28-point wipeout loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 title game. For what it’s worth, Division-1 teams are 45-28 SUATS in opening round games of the tournament when coming off a game in which they tallied fewer than 50 points the previous contest, including 4-0 SUATS when they sport a .838 or greater win percentage. Meanwhile, head Cougar Kelvin Sampson is 15-3 SU and 10-5 ATS in his career in games after failing to score 50 points in the last game. |
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03-22-24 | Texas A&M v. Nebraska +1 | 98-83 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Although the Aggies are like vacuums on the offensive glass, they're simply far too inefficient to advance in this one. Nebraska's defense is capable of consistently forcing missed shots until they grab a board. The Huskers shouldn't fear Texas A&M at the free throw line either. The battle on the other end features a mediocre three-point defense against a Nebraska squad that attempts 26.4 per game and hits 35.8% of them. The Huskers hit free throws and protect the ball well enough to optimize their possessions. Texas A&M let their last two opponents exceed 85 points. Roll with Nebraska to advance and beat the tight spread. |
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03-22-24 | Colorado v. Florida -115 | 102-100 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Gators were the epitome of a team on an up-and-down ladder this season, yet survived 11 losses to gain admittance to this party. In addition, they struggled in games outside the SEC (5-8 ATS). However, they’ve gone 7-0 ATS in opening round games of this tournament when coming off a loss. Finally, Play-in teams are coming off a win are just 12-46 outright all-time. |
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03-22-24 | Stetson v. Connecticut -26.5 | 52-91 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The Hatters have never gone dancing before and now they’re the one team in this tournament that knows beyond a doubt that they’ll get slaughtered. Still, when you’re taking almost four touchdowns, getting slaughtered does not eliminate the possibility of cashing a ticket. Stetson lost by 31 at Houston and 16 at ULNV this season and after playing the majority of its games on the road, it paid enough benefits to land them in this contest. Not enough, though, to overcome UConn’s 5-1 ATS in opening round games as a favorite of -26 or more points – by an average win margin of 38 PPG. And since the Huskies are riding a 23-5 SU and 22-6 ATS mark in this tournament since 2009, we’re not going to try on this hat today. |
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03-22-24 | New Mexico v. Clemson +2.5 | 56-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The Tigers is 6-1 ATS when taking points this season, including 3-0 ATS from non-conference foes. In addition, Clemson enters this fray with a super-sharp 5-0-1 ATS log in this tournament against foes arriving off a win. Now that they’ve appeared to turn the corner under veteran head coach Brad Brownell, we see them possibly deep in this event. NCAA Tournament dogs with a gap of 3 or more seeds are 16-10 SU and 17-9 ATS first-round games, including 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS when coming off consecutive losses. With that, New Mexico enters this contest, having swept its way through the Mountain West tournament, winning and covering 4 games in 4 days in the process. Prior to the surge, though, the Lobos were riding a 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS skein. |
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03-22-24 | Western Kentucky +14.5 v. Marquette | 69-87 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Marquette was the No. 8 team in this season’s AP Preseason Top 25 poll, were it not for an oblique injury to Big East Player of the Year, PG Tyler Kolek. He is one of the most unique passers in the game and leads the nation in Assists Per Game. The Eagles were 22-6 this season with him and just 2-2 without him. If he's back in the lineup, Marquette is a genuine threat to cut down the nets. For now, though, they ride a 1-5 SUATS record of late in this tourney. The Hilltoppers swept the CUSA tourney en route to earning a bid and were 8-3 ATS when taking points this season and 10-2 ATS in games when coming off a win of more than seven points. They are also 7-0 ATS as a dog of late in this tournament.. |
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03-22-24 | UAB +6.5 v. San Diego State | 65-69 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Aztecs rode a winning train right to the title game of last year’s NCAA tournament. Yet, despite an up-and-down campaign this season, which saw them drop 4 of their final 6 games to conclude the season, they find themselves back as a No. 5 seed in a dreaded matchup against a rising 12 seed. Keep in mind that 5 seeds coming off a loss are just 10-21 ATS since 2012, including 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS when the 5-seed sports a sub-700 win percentage. |
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03-21-24 | Samford +7.5 v. Kansas | 89-93 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units These disrespected puppies bring quite a bit into this tourney and MUST be respected. The 29- win Bulldogs were also rock-solid in the stat wars this season, ranking No. 5 overall in Points Per Game as well as No. 15 in Overall Win Margin. They also won 29 of their final 32 games after opening the season with a pair of losses at Purdue and VCU. The question is whether Kansas can regroup after losing leading scorers G Kevin McCullar Jr. (18.3 PPG) and C Hunter Dickson (18.0 PPG and 10.8 RPG) down the stretch. Keep a close eye on the injury ticker, as both are expected back during this tournament. For now, though, Sam (not Stan) gets the call |
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03-21-24 | Drake v. Washington State +1.5 | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Drake looked impressive in its three-game run to the Missouri Valley Tourney championship, fending off a pair of strong teams in Bradley and Indiana State to claim the title. Unfortunately, despite winning 27 games last season, and 28 this campaign, the Bulldogs have little to show for it in this tournament, going 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in this event. Yes, they’re riding a recent 4-0 SUATS win streak but they’re just 8-15 ATS outside the conference the past two seasons, including 2-9 ATS with three or more days of rest. Drake went one-and-out last year, and if the current line stays the same, WSU will bring along a 6-3-1 ATS record as pups this season. Finally, Pac-12 teams are 4-0 SUATS since 1990 when dancing against the Missouri Valley. |
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03-21-24 | NC State v. Texas Tech -4.5 | 80-67 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Who would have thought it? The Wolfpack upset arch-rival UNC as a double digit dog in the ACC championship game as they ride a 6-game win skein into this party. Their mission will be to shake a 0-3 SUATS losing skein in this tourney, something that could prove difficult given its 0-5 SU and 1-3-1 ATS mark in the Big Dance when entering off an upset win. It also doesn’t help to know that ACC tournament champions coming off a SU underdog win are 0-6 ATS in this tournament. With it, the Red Raiders enter knowing they were 0-5 ATS this season against foes coming off a SU underdog win. So, what gives today? TTRR’s 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS overall mark of late in this tournament gains the nod. |