Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-03-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -150 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In a matchup of two very familiar foes, I'm going with the home team in game one. On the season, the Marlins won the season series 7-6 over the Phillies but the Phillies did win four of the last seven meetings. Opposing lefties have an ERA of nearly five and a half at Citizens Bank Park this season, which is the task facing Marlins' lefty Luzardo. He was 2-0 on the season against the Phillies but was far from dominant in his two wins. Luzardo has also been a much better pitcher at home than on the road this season. Phillies' starter Wheeler was stellar down the stretch with a 3-0 record in his last five starts. Wheeler is also the more experienced big-game pitcher in this game after being one of the key pitchers in the Phillies' march to the World Series last year. Wheeler had an ERA of 2.78 in the 2022 postseason. The Phillies' key to victory will be with the long ball and they are especially dangerous at home in that department. |
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10-03-23 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -171 | 6-3 | Loss | -171 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Diamondbacks are starting rookie Brandon Pfaadt as they had to use Kelly and Gallen on the weekend. This is not ideal considering Pfaadt did not have success. The rookie posted a 4.32 ERA in September and issued a poor 5.72 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 96 innings on the season. The Brewers have been outstanding at home, winning eight consecutive home series. Corbin Burnes is rested and has allowed just four runs in his last 22 innings pitched. He has registered a solid 3.77 career ERA against the Diamondbacks. Woodruff has dominated in his brief work in the postseason, allowing just two runs in 15 career innings. I don’t expect this game to go down to the late innings but if it does, the Brewers have the stronger pen. |
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10-01-23 | Guardians v. Tigers -130 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The stars seem to be perfectly aligned for the Tigers today. They need the win to jump three spots in the standings from last season and finish in second place. They also send out Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound this season and the lefty has dominated the Guardians this season. He is perfect in three starts against them, all quality starts, and his ERA is under one in those three turns. Finally, and most importantly, the Tigers and their fans send off future Hall-of-Famer Miguel Cabrera in the final game of his illustrious career. Expect the game to be emotional and all about the veteran stars. The Guardians will step back and let the well-respected Cabrera have his moment and will fall to the Tigers to close out a disappointing season. |
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10-01-23 | Rangers +110 v. Mariners | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Late on Saturday night, the Rangers watched the Astros win 1-0 over the Diamondbacks to remain alive for the AL West crown. The Rangers now have a huge game to play today to try and avoid having to play in the wildcard round this week. Dunning will be facing a Mariners' lineup that certainly will not have the same fire as they would have if the playoffs were on the line and one that may very well likely rest several players. The Rangers will be playing all their starters on Sunday to clinch the division. Seattle starter Kirby has been a bit up and down during the stretch and may also be given a much shorter hook here with the season over for the Mariners. I expect the Rangers to be the more motivated team, even if the division title isn't up for grabs. |
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10-01-23 | Astros -162 v. Diamondbacks | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Javier, the fourth-year pro held four of his five September opponents to three or fewer earned runs and fanned 11 batters two starts ago vs. Baltimore. He's going to be an important arm in the Houston rotation this postseason. He should be able to tame a D-Backs lineup that slashed just .238 BA/.315 OBP/.374 SLG/.688 OPS in September. |
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10-01-23 | Steelers v. Texans +3 | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Stroud has completed 73 of 103 passes (70.9 percent) for 877 yards and all four of his touchdowns while inside the pocket. Outside the pocket, where he was often dangerous as a playmaker in college, Stroud has only completed five of 18 throws (27.8 percent) for 29 yards on 1.6 yards per attempt. Amazingly, he has accomplished all of this while playing behind an unsettled and injury-riddled offensive line that is allowing the third-highest pressure rate in the league. Through it all, he leads the league with a 77.8 percent completion percentage (14 of 18) against man coverage while tossing 222 yards and two touchdowns. The league average completion percentage against man coverage is 58.5 percent. So now that we’ve ascertained that we have the better QB in this game, we’ll lean on Houston's 6-1 ATS mark as a dog with a win percentage of .333 or more when coming off its initial win of the season. With the Steelers staring dead ahead to a bigger clash up next with Baltimore, we look to the fact that Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin is 12-21-1 ATS as a non-division road favorite coming off a win, including 1-11 ATS during the first six games of the season. |
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10-01-23 | Rams +105 v. Colts | Top | 29-23 | Win | 105 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units QB Gardner Minshew’s will last week moved his record to 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS in his last dozen starts. Complicating matters, the Colts are 5-10 SUATS in non-division games following consecutive underdog wins. Given the fact that Indy is one of 6 NFL teams to have been outgained in each of their games this season, what are the chances for the Colts this week? It is not all that good. The Rams have a top coach and a quality quarterback, which makes them dangerous on any given Sunday. Especially knowing that the Colts are just 2-12-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins, including 0-8-1 ATS at home. Finally, HC McVay is 5-0 ATS away in his career, and 5-0 ATS when coming off a loss in his career, against foes coming off a SU underdog win. |
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10-01-23 | Bengals v. Titans +2.5 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Titans surrender just 2.6 defensive yards per rush, which jumps off the page next to Cincinnati’s 5.1 DYPR. That’s a gaping difference. So, while a boatload of trends lines up in the Bengals’ favor, we’ll defer to stats and shade the Titans and Mike Vrabel and his glossy 16-9 ATS dog log against foes coming off a SUATS win. Finally, the Titans are 9-3 ATS at home against foes coming off a Monday night contest, including 4-0 ATS versus sub .400 opponents. |
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10-01-23 | Ravens v. Browns -135 | 28-3 | Loss | -135 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cleveland Browns lost Nick Chubb for the season, and Deshaun Watson has been spotty at best, although good last week. But people need to realize how freaking good this defense is. The offense is but a side role player in this production as the Browns have the best defense in the league and it will carry them all season. They held Joe Burrow to under 100 yards passing, they held Derrick Henry to 20 yards rushing, and in their only loss, 14 of the 26 points were from defensive touchdowns -- a pick 6 and a fumble scoop and score. The Ravens' passing game is limited and without much help around Jackson, I don't see the Ravens being able to mount much of an attack. |
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09-30-23 | South Carolina v. Tennessee -12 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 70 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Gamecocks appear to have lost their edge following a close-but-no-cigar loss to Georgia, as they are now 0-3 ITS (In The Stats) against fellow FBS foes this season. Keep an eye on the line as South Carolina is also a miserable 1-7 ATS as road dogs of 12 or less points. Tennessee has cashed in 4 of the last five series meetings and despite a wobbly 3-9 ATS record in its last 12 SEC games when seeking revenge, we’ll still lay the points in this major conference payback. |
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09-30-23 | Yankees v. Royals +118 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kansas City's offense putting up more than five runs per game this month already gives them an advantage at the plate on Saturday. Then factor in their better play at home all season (.259/.322/.419 slash line), and they should tee off. Clarke Schmidt already gave up three runs against them in Yankee Stadium. He brings a 5.27 road ERA and 5.33 ERA in his last five starts to Kansas City with him. Expect the Royals to jump ahead early. Pitching has been a concern for Kansas City, but this year's Yankees aren't threatening at the plate at all. New York is scoring fewer than four runs per game in September and has been among the league's lowest-scoring teams all season. Home runs are their great equalizer, but Kauffman Stadium's dimensions should neutralize that. This game will be a Royals win. |
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09-30-23 | Marlins -154 v. Pirates | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Marlins are trying to hang on to the final Wildcard spot. They won three of their previous four games against the Pirates this season. They have scored 17 runs in their last four games. They hit the ball well against right-handers and Priester has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up 10 runs in his last three starts. He gave up 20 runs in his last four home starts and will have a hard time slowing down the Marlins in this game. The Pirates offensive struggles will continue in this game because they are one of the worst hitting teams in the league and Miami’s pitching has been very good in recent games, with the team holding four of their last five opponents under four runs. They gave up 10 runs in four games against the Pirates this season and will keep their offense in check. Go with Miami to cover the money line. |
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09-30-23 | Kansas +16.5 v. Texas | 14-40 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Texas is 0-7 ATS as conference favorites of more than 10 points, 1-5 ATS when coming off back-to-back wins, and 2-9 ATS at home before facing fellow conference defector Oklahoma. Kansas has covered 5 of the last six meetings in this series, is 5-2 ATS as conference dogs of more than 10 points, and 7-3 against the number overall with conference revenge. Finally, Kansas head coach Lance Leipold is 10-3-2 ATS in his career against undefeated opponents, including 6-2 SU and 7-0-1 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win. |
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09-30-23 | Illinois +1 v. Purdue | Top | 19-44 | Loss | -115 | 66 h 18 m | Show |
Big-10 Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Vegas has made the Boilermakers the betting favorite, and that’s where things get ugly for Purdue. They are 1-6 ATS in the last seven games when laying points against avenging teams, 0-4 ATS at Ross-Ade last year and 0-3 SU at home this season. Purdue always seems tougher when they have the chip on their shoulder and here to knock it off is the fact that Purdue is 0-12 ATS as a conference favorite of 18 or less points. |
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09-30-23 | Georgia v. Auburn +14.5 | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 66 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Defending National Champions are 8-14-1 ATS as undefeated double digit road chalk versus .750 or greater opponents. Auburn is 7-0 ATS in Game 5 vs. conference foes and has a 3-1 spread mark as conference home dogs of 6 points or more. Freeze is 28-12 ATS as a dog, including 13-5 ATS versus undefeated foes. |
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09-30-23 | Rays v. Blue Jays -114 | 7-5 | Loss | -114 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This should be an interesting matchup today between the Jays and Rays. With a likely playoff matchup looming, neither team will likely look to play their starters the full game. Both starting pitchers are also likely to be pitching out of the bullpen in the wildcard round with neither in the top-three of their team's rotations. I expect both pitchers to be gone by the end of the fourth inning at the latest as each team protects their pitching staff. The rest of the game should be played by recent call-ups that will not be a part of the playoff roster. I like the home team Jays to be slightly more motivated after going through a bit of a tough stretch in recent games. |
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09-30-23 | Florida +105 v. Kentucky | Top | 14-33 | Loss | -100 | 63 h 55 m | Show |
SEC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops has worked wonders during his 10-plus years at Lexington but he’s a money-burning 8-14 ATS at home in conference games versus foes off an ATS loss. And when it comes to taking on a conference team playing with revenge, the Cats had cashed just three tickets in their last ten tries. Finally, consider that Florida's HC is 11-2 ATS as a dog in conference games, including 7-0 SUATS as a dog of 5 or fewer points |
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09-30-23 | Texas A&M v. Arkansas +6.5 | 34-22 | Loss | -105 | 63 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Fisher is just 17-31 ATS versus avenging .500-or-greater conference opponents, including 2-12 ATS versus foes coming off a loss. Meanwhile, the Hogs cashed our 4-star Best Bet winner last week and they’re coming right back for more this week. They are in the right role, going 14-6 ATS as a dog under head coach Sam Pittman, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 9 points. |
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09-29-23 | Yankees -144 v. Royals | 5-12 | Loss | -144 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are heading to an offseason full of questions as they are missing the postseason. That’s an uncommon thing for the Yankees in recent history but their moves to bolster things failed to deliver. Rodon is a prime example of what fell apart for the franchise as he missed the first three months of the season and never got up to speed after that. Of course, facing a Royals team that is minus arguably their top two starting pitchers in Brady Singer and Brad Keller makes things more difficult for the hosts. The Royals have struggled offensively and Rodon should be able to finish the season on a positive note with a strong outing here. |
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09-29-23 | Padres -139 v. White Sox | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Padres, who average 4.66 runs per game, should drive in runs at will with Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and the rest of the lineup making contact and powering the ball to easily drive in runs. The Padres should also limit a White Sox lineup that averages only 4.01 runs per game with Nick Martinez tossing multiple scoreless innings to allow the bullpen to close out the game with the lead. The Padres should win the game with a strong performance on the road. |
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09-29-23 | Louisville v. NC State +3.5 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 45 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cardinals are gaining a lot of respect from Vegas, but the fact is they’ve lost the money in both of their away games so far. We don’t like that they have Notre Dame up next, nor their 1-6 ATS record when coming off consecutive wins as a favorite. NC State QB Brennan Armstrong has struggled to find his footing after transferring in from Virginia, but we expect a breakout game from him tonight. Wolfpack coach Dave Doeren’s 7-3 ATS as a home dog with revenge, including 5-1 ATS when coming off a win, assures us we’ll root for the home team to pull off a mild upset. |
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09-28-23 | Rangers +112 v. Mariners | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers have dominated right-handed pitchers in the last ten days, notching a .895 OPS and 139 wRC+ across 261 plate appearances. Last Saturday, they scored two runs off Logan Gilbert in that 2-0 home win against Seattle. On the other side, the Mariners have registered a .672 OPS and 93 wRC+ versus left-handed pitchers over the last ten days (133 plate appearances). They’ve owned the Mariners as of late. Jordan Montgomery has been outstanding over his previous three starts including seven scoreless innings against Seattle, and the Rangers ‘pen has been surprisingly good in the last ten days (3.67 ERA and 2.71 FIP). |
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09-28-23 | Lions v. Packers +2 | 34-20 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Packers overcame a 17-0 fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Saints 18-17 in a game which increased their home opening record to 16-1 in the process. With it, they bring a lofty 12-0-1 outright mark in second-home games entering this contest while going 9-3-1 ATS in those games. Tonight’s game also marks the first time in the last 10 meetings between these two squads in which Green Bay will be on the receiving end of the points. The Lions are 4-28 SU in Green Bay dating back to 1992 – being the favorite only twice. Finally, the Packers’ are 4-0 ATS as a home dog. |
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09-28-23 | Middle Tennessee State +6.5 v. Western Kentucky | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Blue Raider boss Rick Stockstill stands 9-5 ATS in his career against .500 or fewer foes that are coming off two losses, including 7-2 ATS in conference play. He’s also in his 18th season in Murfreesboro, so regardless of whatever Western coach Tyson Helton throws at them, Stockstill has probably seen it before. After the requisite blowout defeat against Alabama to start the season, MTSU acquitted itself nicely in a narrow 23-19 loss at Missouri and should get its first outright road win of 2023 here. |
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09-28-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers -175 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s hard to go with a Cardinals team playing with a depleted lineup. Several key players are out including Arenado, Contreras, and Gorman. They have dropped five of their last seven games. The Brewers are looking strong heading into the postseason, winning four of their last five series. Cards’ starter Dakota Hudson is struggling, producing a poor 5.93 ERA in his five outings in September. Brewers pitcher Corbin Burnes continues to shut down the opposition, allowing just four runs in his last three outings spanning 18 innings. Burnes has a stifling 2.97 ERA in 75 innings in his career against the rivals. |
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09-28-23 | A's v. Twins -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota's ace, Sonny Gray, will try to put a bow on a sensational 2023 season against MLB's worst offense. Gray will take his 2.66 home ERA against his former team that's averaging fewer than four runs per game. The Twins shouldn't feel threatened by Oakland's offense at all today. The Twins have been mashing the ball, which is why they're the only team averaging over six runs per game this month. Luis Medina is the A's starter, and he has a 6.60 ERA on the road. The Oakland bullpen is MLB's worst. Minnesota should clobber plenty of baseballs in this one. It shouldn't be close. |
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09-27-23 | Rangers -154 v. Angels | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Texas Rangers are close to a playoff spot and every game is huge the rest of the way. The Rangers are in a groove. The Angels have been abysmal and have a poor lineup due to the injuries to Trout and Ohtani. They have lost eight of their last ten games. Rangers’ starter Dane Dunning has only conceded four runs in his last 10 innings pitched. He has contained the Angels, limiting them to only three earned runs in 10 innings this season. Angels' pitcher Griffin Canning struggles against the Rangers, allowing 20 runs in 24 career innings against the rivals. |
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09-27-23 | Nationals v. Orioles -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Too much at stake here for Baltimore not to lean their way in this matchup. They have a chance to rest some key players over the weekend and to limit the rest of their starters to a pitch count to keep them fresh but not tax them as they miss nearly a week while getting a well-deserved bye in the first round of the playoffs. Baltimore's Rodriguez has looked like a potential future ace with his lively arm and command coming together down the stretch. He has an ERA under two over his last five starts while slightly upping his K/9 rate. The Nats Corbin has bounced back from an 18-loss season a year ago with a solid season but he still gives up way too many hits per start and that plays right into the Orioles small-ball style of play. The Orioles will move runners along, work the count, and wear down Corbin to get to the Nats' weak bullpen. I don't expect the Orioles to let up here with a chance to possibly clinch the division. |
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09-27-23 | Reds +117 v. Guardians | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds have likely run out of steam in terms of earning a wildcard spot but they are certainly in line to earn a winning season in 2023. This will be lefty Abbott's final start of the 2023 season and he will look to go out on a high note after coming out of the gates on fire before cooling off. The Guardians will counter with Bieber who returned from the IL and pitched five innings in his return last week. Bieber has had a difficult season as he transitions from a power pitcher to more of a finesse pitcher who needs to survive with more balls being put in play. Abbott is also 5-1 on the road this season for Cincinnati. The Reds come into this game as the more motivated team and should be able to pull out a win over the Guardians with what is an excellent money line. |
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09-26-23 | Diamondbacks -140 v. White Sox | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox have been awful at the plate of late, posting a .671 OPS and 82 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in the last ten days. On the other side, the Diamondbacks have registered a .744 OPS and 102 wRC+ versus the righties in that span. The Diamondbacks bullpen has done a tremendous job over the last ten days, posting a microscopic 0.65 ERA to go with a 3.80 FIP. The White Sox’s bullpen has recorded a hideous 9.61 ERA and 8.34 FIP during that span. |
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09-26-23 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -154 | 2-0 | Loss | -154 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units As well as King has pitched since taking on a starter's role, he is still limited in the number of innings he can throw. The Blue Jays' Gausman, however, will have such issues in what might be his last start of the season if all things go right for the Jays. I expect Gausman to once again get deep into the game against a Yankees team that he is averaging just under seven innings per start in his previous three appearances. Gausman is 2-0 against the Yankees and has done an excellent job at keeping the ball out of play with 37 strikeouts in nearly 21 innings pitched. The Yankees' lineup has scored two runs or less in four of their last six games. I don't expect too many contested at-bats from a team already looking ahead to a long offseason. The Jays lineup will do their best to work the pitch count of King to get to the Yankees bullpen. The Jays have much more to play for on Tuesday night and should win this one relatively easily. |
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09-25-23 | Padres -114 v. Giants | 1-2 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are holding on to fading playoff hopes as they try to make a late push to get back into the playoff picture. With that said, the Padres had won eight straight before losing Saturday night while the Giants have been floundering for the last six or seven weeks. Snell is the presumptive NL Cy Young winner despite his major league-leading walk total as he does a solid job keeping his team in games. Webb has been victimized by a lack of run support in his starts this season and the Giants have struggled to put runs on the board at home. It’s tough to have faith in the home team given their struggles of late. Take the Padres on the road in this contest as they find a way to prevail and keep their faint hopes alive for another day. |
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09-25-23 | Rangers -174 v. Angels | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels sport a 32-43 run line record at home and a 19-27 run line division record this season. Texas hits .273 BA/.349 OBP/.451 SLG/.801 OPS vs. left-handed pitchers this season. Sandoval was roughed up by the Rangers last month and is 1-3 in seven career appearances against them. They're in the thick of a competitive division title hunt and will roll to a road victory over the hapless Angels. Gray contained the LA offense in a seven-inning gem last month and should shine again today. The veteran righty has held four of his last five opponents to three runs and has a lower road ERA than at home this year. The Angels are without several key cogs and will be uncompetitive in this series. |
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09-25-23 | Rams v. Bengals -135 | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 34 h 46 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Cincinnati is 15-3 SU and 16-2 ATS in its last 18 non-division games, including 6-0 SUATS at home. In addition, they stand 7-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS losses. Los Angeles checks in with a 0-6-2 ATS log against AFC North foes coming off back-to-back losses. Finally, Joe Burrow is 5-0-1 ATS with the Bengals when Cincinnati is coming off a pair of losses. |
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09-24-23 | Steelers v. Raiders -155 | 23-18 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS their last six meetings. Jimmy Garoppolo, who stands heads and shoulders above Kenny Pickett. Jimmy G brings a 39-25-1 ATS overall career mark into this game, including 4-1 ATS against the AFC North. With the Black-and-Gold just 1-3 ATS in its last four games after Cleveland, we are going with the Raiders. |
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09-24-23 | Cardinals v. Padres -1.5 | 2-12 | Win | 102 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wacha has held nearly all of his opponents to three or fewer runs and has been especially impressive at Petco. He's facing a Cardinals club hitting .230 BA/.314 OBP/.372 SLG/.686 OPS in September and is missing a few of its best sluggers. I'm predicting a quality start from Wacha today. The Padres have been playing more freely recently, and I don't expect that to change in the series finale. They are facing a rookie hurler with very minimal game experience and have hit left-handers pretty well (.268/.342/.462/.805) in 2023. |
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09-24-23 | Mariners +115 v. Rangers | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners have won three of their last four road games. They are playing well offensively and scored 18 runs in their last three games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because Eovaldi has been shaky on the mound in recent home starts, giving up seven runs in his last three home starts. He gave up seven runs in his last two home starts against the Mariners, and with Texas having the sixth-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Mariners in this game. The Rangers have won three of their last four games. They are also playing well offensively and scored 29 runs in their last three games. But, they will struggle offensively in this game because Woo has been brilliant on the mound in recent starts and didn’t give up a run in three of his last four starts. He gave up six runs in his last three road starts, and with Seattle having the fourth-best bullpen in the league, they will keep Texas’ offense in check. |
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09-24-23 | Brewers v. Marlins +115 | 1-6 | Win | 115 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Marlins are still very much in must-win mode while the Brewers NL Central Division title is inevitable. Needing just one win or one Cubs loss, the Brewers' urgency is not nearly as desperate as the Marlins. The Marlins will turn to Cabrera on Sunday at home. Home is the operative word here as Cabrera comes into this matchup with a perfect 6-0 record at home this season and an ERA of just 2.49. He faces a Brewers team that is just 16th in baseball in strikeouts per game while sporting a K/9 rate of over ten himself. I expect a high number of swings and misses from the Brewers in this game. Peralta also has a very impressive K/9 rate but takes on a Marlins team that is fifth in fewest strikeouts per game offensively. |
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09-24-23 | Broncos +6 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-70 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating; 4 Units After blowing last week’s 21-14 lead after two quarters, Denver has now lost an NFL record nine straight games where it has had the lead at halftime. Even with first-year NFL coaches just 1-9 this season, the value is all with Denver in this matchup. You can count on one thing in this game: Sean Payton is pissed, and somebody will pay the price. He is also 23-7-2 ATS in his NFL career against foes coming off a win. Finally, NFL Game Three underdogs coming off a pair of SU favorite losses are 16-2-1 ATS since 2003, including 9-0 ATS versus foes with a winning record. |
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09-24-23 | Texans +8 v. Jaguars | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Houston, is a team that’s given Jacksonville fits over the years with the Texans going 15-3 outright in its last 18 games against Jacksonville, including 5-1 SUATS as a dog in this series since 2018. Additionally, while Houston is 0-2 SUATS this season, they are 2-0 ITS (In The Stats). Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has yet to cash an NFL ticket as a home favorite, going 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. To cap it off, Jacksonville is 2-13 SU and 1-14 ATS as a favorite if the Jags were a dog in their last game. |
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09-24-23 | Colts v. Ravens -7.5 | 22-19 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore looks to improve to 3-0 on the season, something they haven’t done since 2016. They are 8-1 ATS after division road games and 5-1 ATS when both teams are coming off a division contest. The Colts are 1-7 ATS in their last games against the AFC North and 2-7 ATS in games when both teams were taking points last week. |
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09-24-23 | Patriots -138 v. Jets | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Patriots are 0-2 for the first time since 2001. They went on to go 14-3 thereafter, riding a season-ending 9-0 win skein to capture the Super Bowl. But that was all with Tom Brady, not Mac Jones. One of the Pats’ weaknesses has been the lack of a ground game, and that doesn’t work in the NFL. The 6 NFL teams failing to average more than 82 Rushing Yards Per Game this season are struggling, going 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS through the first two games of the season. However, New England had a 5-0 ATS series record against the Jets, and a 6-1 ATS mark in games in which both teams are coming off SUATS losses. Bill Belichick is 18-3 SU and 14-7 of late in games when coming off successive losses. |
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09-23-23 | USC v. Arizona State +34.5 | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 36 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This doesn’t scream Trojans blowout mainly because Southern Cal is 0-5 ATS as a road favorite of 15 or more, 0-3 ATS off rest the last two years, 1-6 ATS after allowing less than 10 points and 1-6 ATS in the front end of back-to-back road games. With Colorado looming, this may be a letdown game for Lincoln Riley’s squadron, Caleb Williams or not. Plus, ASU is 5-0 ATS in the last five in this series, 7-1 ATS as a home dog of 11 or more and 3-1 ATS in the 4th straight home game. Additionally, playing on any college football conference home dog of more than 18 points coming off consecutive home losses is 17-2 ATS. |
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09-23-23 | Cardinals v. Padres -184 | 5-2 | Loss | -184 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Diego has won eight straight for the first time since 2021. Nine consecutive wins would match the sixth-longest winning streak in franchise history. The Padres will start right-hander Nick Martinez (5-4, 3.73 ERA) against Cardinals' right-hander Jake Woodford (2-2, 5.31). Overall, Woodford has a 10-6 record with a 4.01 ERA in 78 career appearances (16 starts) with the Cardinals. With St. Louis this season, Woodford has appeared in 13 games (six starts), giving up 26 runs (25 earned) on 51 hits and 19 walks with 28 strikeouts in 42 1/3 innings. Woodford will be facing the Padres for the first time in 2023. In three career relief appearances against the Padres, Woodford is 0-0 with an 8.10 ERA, giving up three runs on six hits and two walks with a strikeout in 3 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, Martinez will be making his second straight start for the Padres, but it will be just his eighth start in what will be 62 games in 2023. Over two seasons with the Padres, the 33-year-old Martinez has made 17 starts in 108 appearances. He allowed one hit with five strikeouts over three innings against Oakland last Sunday in his first start since Aug. 8 and only his third since April 19, when Musgrove opened the season on the injured list. |
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09-23-23 | Ohio State v. Notre Dame +3 | 17-14 | Push | 0 | 34 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Notre Dame is 14-6 SU in their last 20 Big Ten battles and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven, but use caution because they are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS versus the Buckeyes since 1995. Also, don’t forget that Ohio State beat the Irish, 21-10, in the season opener at The Horseshoe last season, and the Golden Domers are 8-2 ATS at home with revenge. The stats that will seal the deal with this one is the fact that home dogs who have managed to tally 40 or more points in each of their last THREE games in a row have gone 28-11 ATS in this role since 1980. Additionally, if these same home teams have won 16 or more of their previous 28 home games, they are 23-5 ATS in this role. |
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09-23-23 | Mariners v. Rangers -121 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers jumped over the Mariners and Astros in the standings last night after their 8-5 win over the Mariners, and I think they gain some more ground tonight. Texas has been extremely productive against right-handed pitching this season (.792 OPS) and will go up against right-hander Logan Gilbert. Through 30 starts, Gilbert owns a respectable 3.77 ERA, but has slightly regressed in September, pitching to a 4.50 ERA across 4 starts. The Rangers’ offense can get hot quick, and they’ve plated 29 runs in their past 3 games. Look for them to stay aggressive. Left-hander Jordan Montgomery counters for the Rangers and is pitching to a 3.38 ERA across 30 starts. Most importantly, Montgomery has been extremely efficient over his past 2 outings, allowing just 1 earned run across 14.0 innings. I give the edge to Montgomery and a potent Rangers’ lineup to grab the win and widen their lead in the standings. |
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09-23-23 | Oregon State v. Washington State +3 | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 76 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units OSU West is a bad conference road favorite, going 1-4 ATS in the last two years. Meanwhile the Cougars have numbers in their corner: 6-3 ATS the last nine, 5-1 ATS in a third straight home game, and 5-1 ATS in the last six as a home dog. Game 4 has been good for WSU as they boast an 8-2 ATS mark. Finally, College football home teams in Game Four of the season are 18-9 ATS in a matchup of 3-0 teams, including 9-1 ATS against foes coming off an ATS loss. |
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09-23-23 | Arkansas +18 v. LSU | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 76 h 33 m | Show |
SEC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Hogs got crushed last week in a stunning home loss against BYU last week but they actually outgained the Cougars 424-281 in total yardage. In addition, Arkansas Head coach Sam Pittman is 6-1-1 ATS on the road with revenge and the Razorbacks are 7-1-1 ATS away with conference revenge. Meanwhile, the Tigers have not had the best of it in this series, going 1-3-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Finally, LSU is 3-11-2 ATS as a favorite in conference home openers, including 0-7-2 ATS when favored by 13 or more points |
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09-23-23 | Brewers -116 v. Marlins | 4-5 | Loss | -116 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Woodruff has been outstanding this season -- 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA. The only problem has been that a shoulder injury kept him for four months, limiting him to just 10 starts so far. Over his past five starts, Woodruff is 3-0 with a 1.06 ERA. In three career starts against the Marlins, he is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA. The Brewers (88-66), who routed the Marlins 16-1 in the series opener on Friday, are closing in on their third NL Central title in the past six years. Their magic number for the division is one, and they clinched a playoff berth on Friday. he Marlins hope to change their fortunes today behind left-hander Jesus Luzardo (10-9, 3.68 ERA). Luzardo, a native of Peru who will turn 26 next week, has set career highs in wins, starts (30) and innings (166 1/3). Prior to this season, his career highs in those categories were six victories, 18 starts and 100 1/3 innings. The Marlins are 18-12 this season when Luzardo starts, although he took a pounding on Sept. 11 when facing Woodruff and the Brewers. In that game, Luzardo allowed 10 hits, four walks and six runs in five innings. |
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09-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -6.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 10 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Nick Saban’s is 28-3 record versus former assistants, including 2-0 SUATS when the Tide is coming off consecutive point spread losses by an average win margin of 24 PPG. Additionally, if those assistants are undefeated, Saban is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS against them. Saban is 9-2 SUATS in his career when his team is coming off consecutive double-digit ATS losses, including 8-0 SUATS the last eight games. Finally, Nick Saban is 21-7-1 ATS in conference games when coming off back-to-back ATS losses, including 8-0-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit win and 4-0 SUATS versus undefeated foes (by an average win margin of 30 PPG) |
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09-23-23 | Maryland -7.5 v. Michigan State | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 29 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units MSU is 4-7 ATS as a home dog and you must wonder what can be said to raise the level of both play and attitude around the program. It’s the third straight year UMD has started 3-0 and the stats are overwhelmingly positive. Maryland is averaging 471 YPG of offense and 299 YPG of defense. Taulia Tagovialoa has become Maryland’s all-time TD pass leader to add to his other records he is sharing and is likely to break. Finally consider that teams playing off their first loss of the year, at home in this role tend to perform poorly going 145-1605-4 ATS overall since 1980. Additionally, if they allowed 35 or more points in their initial loss, they fall to 46-73-2 ATS. This week’s host is Michigan State. When they are facing a conference opponent, they plummet to 20-41-1 ATS. |
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09-22-23 | Tigers -131 v. A's | 2-8 | Loss | -131 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Having won six of its last eight games, Detroit now sends impressive prospect Sawyer Gipson-Long (1-0, 2.70 ERA) to the mound to face an A's team that has lost eight straight. The right-hander has pitched the Tigers to a pair of wins in his first two major league starts, striking out a total of 16 in 10 innings. He allowed just one run and two hits over five innings, striking out 11, in his most recent start over the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday. The 25-year-old has never faced the A's. Waldichuk (3-8, 5.40) pitched Oakland to a 12-3 win at Detroit as a bulk-innings reliever in July, allowing two runs in 4 1/3 innings. It was his only career head-to-head with the Tigers. The left-hander has won just once in 13 appearances since, nine of which have been starts. |
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09-22-23 | Cardinals v. Padres -153 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The St. Louis Cardinals have only won four of their last ten games. The Padres have won four of their last five home bouts. They are enjoying one of their best stretches of the season, winning eight of their last ten games including a series win against the Dodgers. Cardinals’ starter Dakota Hudson has not been reliable. The veteran has squandered 15 runs in his last 14.1 innings and has issued an abysmal 6.75 ERA this month. This is good news for the Padres who are dazzling at the plate, averaging a remarkable 5.9 runs in their last ten games. Padres starter Matt Waldron allowed just two runs last time out and has allowed just four runs in his last 10 home innings. |
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09-22-23 | Orioles -107 v. Guardians | 8-9 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I like the O's on the road, where they're 50-27 straight-up. Baltimore is finishing strong, slashing .275 BA/.337 OBP/.455 SLG/.792 OPS in September after a strong showing in August (5.9 runs per game). The O's had success against Bieber earlier this season, too. They'll make him work for all his 80 pitches, pushing the Cleveland starter in his first appearance since the All-Star break. The Guardians average 3.7 runs per game at home and will face a starter who has held four of his last five opponents to one or no runs. He held his own in his most recent start, too, limiting the high-scoring Rays to one run. I'm confident he will turn in a quality start for the visitors in another important game for Baltimore's title chase. |
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09-22-23 | Wisconsin -5.5 v. Purdue | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wisconsin has dominated this series going 16-0 SU and 13-3 ATS the last 16 meetings, along with a 7-2 ATS mark before a Week of Rest, and an 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS record on Weekdays. Purdue comes in with a 2-17 ATS mark as a home dog in games they fail to win. They are also 1-8 ATS of late in the second of 3 straight home games. |
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09-21-23 | Giants +10 v. 49ers | 12-30 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Francisco is one of two teams in the NFL this year that went from worst to first in their division last season. That’s not good news if you’re looking to back them as a favorite, as these teams are just 82-100-5 ATS overall since 2004, including 43-68-3 ATS as home favorites. San Fran is also 1-6 ATS in this series when coming off back-to-back wins. The Giants were one of four NFL teams to come back and win after trailing by double-digits last week. New York is 6-0 ATS as a dog after being a favorite in its last game, and 3-0 ATS on Thursdays the past three seasons, and 4-0 ATS before a Monday night game. |
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09-21-23 | Pirates v. Cubs -159 | 8-6 | Loss | -159 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pittsburgh Pirates continue to struggle when playing the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs have completely dominated the rivals, winning 10 of the 11 meetings. The Pirates have dropped four of their last five road bouts. Pirates’ starter Johan Oviedo has not been sharp, posting a poor 5.11 ERA in his three outings this month. Cubs pitcher Kyle Hendricks has silenced the Pirates, holding them to three earned runs in 12 innings this season, and has recorded a 3.67 career ERA against the rivals. The Cubs have won all four home games against the Pirates this season. They have also secured the win in three of Hendricks' last four outings. |
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09-21-23 | Mets v. Phillies -160 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets have struggled to find consistency this season and having to travel from Miami to Philadelphia for this one won't help matters. They lack the pitching to compete on a regular basis and while the lineup has dangerous names, they have struggled to produce and gel together. In the other clubhouse, the Phillies get to lean on a starting pitcher who has only improved over the last month and is pitching the best baseball of his season so far. Their lineup is heavy at the top but even when just one or two bench players contribute, it's more than enough for success and wins to be found. Suarez was successful in his earlier start this season against the Mets and if he can channel that in this one, the sky is the limit for the Phillies in the series opener. |
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09-21-23 | Brewers +100 v. Cardinals | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers have won four of their last six games and three of their last five road games and have scored 18 runs in their last four games. St. Louis starter Mikolas has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up 13 runs in his last three starts. He gave up 15 runs in his last three home starts and with St. Louis having the eighth-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Brewers in this game. The Cardinals have lost three of their last five games and have struggled offensively and scored only 11 runs in their last four games. Miley has done a good job on the mound for the Brewers, especially on the road where he gave up 11 runs in his last six starts. He gave up one run in his last two starts in St. Louis. |
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09-20-23 | Giants +101 v. Diamondbacks | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Francisco Giants always have a great chance to win games when Logan Webb is on the mound. The Giants ace is capable of going seven to eight innings. He limited the Rockies to one run in eight innings last time out. Webb usually silences Arizona, holding the rivals to six runs in 21 innings this season. Merrill Kelly can be shaky. He just gave up seven runs to the Mets and has surrendered 16 runs in his last four outings spanning 22.2 innings. Arizona has only won in four of Kelly’s last ten outings. The Giants have beaten the Diamondbacks in three of their last four meetings. |
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09-20-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. A's | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kirby has stumbled a bit over his last five starts with an elevated ERA and 0-2 in that span. He has a perfect opportunity here against the light-hitting A's lineup to get back on track. Kirby has faced the A's once this season and was sharp going seven innings and allowing just three runs in a Mariners' win. The A's will have to cobble together a group of pitchers to with no available starter to give them a long stint. The Mariners lineup should have its way with the A's staff today as they try to stay with the Rangers and Blue Jays in the wildcard race. Looking for yet another easy win by Seattle. |
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09-20-23 | White Sox v. Nationals -125 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox have lost five of their last seven games and two of their last three road games and have only scored 15 runs in their last four games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because they haven’t had a lot of success batting against right-handers and Gray has done a decent job on the mound in recent starts, giving up five runs in his last two starts. The Nationals have also struggled in recent games, losing six of their last eight games. But, they have hit the ball well against right-handers and Scholtens has struggled on the mound, giving up 14 runs in his last three starts. He gave up eight runs in his last two road starts, and with Chicago having the sixth-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Nationals in this game. |
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09-19-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. A's | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Castillo has had pretty good stuff recently, holding three of his last four opponents to eight total hits in 19 combined frames. He's held five of his last seven opponents to four combined runs, too. The M's could use another quality start from him today after dropping four of six games to the LA clubs. Blackburn has only lasted six total innings in his last two outings, giving up six runs and ten hits, including three home runs. The Mariners actually have better road splits (.248 BA/.326 OBP/.428 SLG/.754 OPS) than home splits (.239/.318/.402/.720) and had some success against the A's starter last season, scoring seven runs on ten hits on June 22. Seattle sports a 23-16 RL record (59.0%) against its division opponents this season. |
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09-19-23 | Orioles +145 v. Astros | 9-5 | Win | 145 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles still have not clinched anything in the AL East and need to pick up winnable games like this down the stretch. Astros' starter Brown has struggled over his last five starts with an ERA over seven. He has also been less than effective at home this season with a 4-7 record and an ERA close to six. Brown was also banged up in his one start against the Orioles this season allowing eight hits and five runs including two home runs. The Orioles' Gibson has an ERA close to five but he also has 16 quality starts and a team-leading 14 wins. I expect Gibson to hang in this game and get the Orioles to the back end of their bullpen to put this game away. |
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09-19-23 | Brewers -119 v. Cardinals | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Brewers are getting closer to securing the division title. They have won seven of their last eleven games and continue to excel on the mound. The Cardinals have only won four of their last eight games after a series loss to the Phillies. Brewers’ expected bulk pitcher Colin Rea has issued a solid 3.29 ERA this month. Cards’ pitcher Drew Rom is a struggling rookie. He has squandered 17 runs in 22 innings on the year and has only pitched more than five innings in two of his five outings. This is not ideal considering the Cardinals bullpen has a poor 4.53 ERA. |
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09-18-23 | Mariners -165 v. A's | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Athletics have lost four straight games and five of their last six home games. They aren’t playing well offensively and scored only six runs in their last three games haven’t hit the ball well against right-handers and Woo has done a good job on the mound in recent starts, giving up five runs in his last three starts. He didn’t give up a run in his only start against them and with Seattle having the fifth-best bullpen in the league, they will keep Oakland’s cold bats in check The Mariners have lost three of their last five games. They’ve also struggled offensively, but they’ve done a great job batting against left-handers and Sears has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up nine runs in his last four starts. He gave up 12 runs in his last four home starts, and with Oakland having the worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Mariners in this game. |
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09-18-23 | Browns v. Steelers +2 | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mike Tomlin does not take to losing consecutive home games very well, where he is 8-1 outright in the get-even game. Tomlin is also 7-1 ATS the last eight games as a dog after a game where he was a dog, and 13-4-5 ATS as a home dog in his career with Pittsburgh. The Browns are feeling good about themselves after destroying Cincinnati at the Dawg Pound last week, however they are just 1-9 ATS when coming off a SUATS win. |
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09-18-23 | Red Sox v. Rangers -156 | 4-2 | Loss | -156 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers will get back on track at home today after being swept by the Guardians in Cleveland. Montgomery has held Boston to three or fewer runs in 13 of his 14 career outings, including eight consecutive. He bounced back with a strong showing in his last start and will tame a Red Sox lineup that's hitting just .234 BA/.298 OBP/.390 SLG/.689 OPS this month. The Rangers will jump on Crawford early and pile on runs against the Boston bullpen (4.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP), which has surrendered the fourth-most homers (75) in MLB this year. Texas hits .274 BA/.348 OBP/.492 SLG/.840 OPS at Globe Life Field, scoring 5.8 runs per game. |
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09-18-23 | Guardians -116 v. Royals | 4-6 | Loss | -116 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both of these teams are playing hard despite being out of the playoff picture as the season winds to a close. The Guardians still have a chance to end with a winning season while the Royals are motivated by trying to avoid the team's worst season of all-time. I'm leaning toward the Guardians in this matchup. Quantrill has been far from dominant but he has been efficient since returning from IL. He's gone six innings in each of his three starts since returning and has given up a total of three runs in those starts. The Royals' Singer has seemingly hit the wall after looking sharp in the middle portion of the season. He is 0-3 in his last five starts with an ERA over seven. Look for the Guardians to pick up the road win on Monday afternoon against the struggling Singer. |
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09-17-23 | Tigers -103 v. Angels | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Detroit has won four of its last six overall and seven of the last nine that the Tigers have played on the road. Los Angeles has lost nine of its last 12 played at home and 11 of the last 15 when facing an American League team. Due to injuries, LA is without a combined 57 home runs and 210 RBI. The Angels must also play without a host of starting pitchers and relievers, including relievers Jamie Barria (0-2, 6 saves), Sam Bachman (0-1, 1 save), Austin Warren (0-1) and Jose Quijada (0-1, 4 saves). The four relievers have made a combined 55 appearances. Los Angeles starting pitcher Reid Detmers has a 4.77 ERA, while serving up 19 home runs in 137 ⅔ innings and allowing 73 earned runs. Detmers has walked 54. |
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09-17-23 | Nationals v. Brewers -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers' offense will likely be chomping at the bit to face Corbin at home on Sunday. Corbin has given up a ton of hits compared to innings pitched and has an ERA over five this season. The Brewers have to feel confident with Woodruff going today. Woodruff is undefeated in his last five starts and has an ERA under two for the season. At home, Woodruff is 3-1 with an ERA of nearly one while piling up strikeouts. Once the Brewers 1A ace along with Corbin Burnes, Woodruff once again has taken on the look of a co-ace. |
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09-17-23 | Braves -130 v. Marlins | 2-16 | Loss | -130 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Atlanta Braves continue to dominate. They have won five consecutive road series and are a dominant 9-2 against the Marlins this season entering Saturday after the Marlins finally beat them on Friday. The Marlins have not been able to solve Braves' starter Charlie Morton this season. The veteran has limited the rivals to only one run in 12.2 innings this season. Morton is reliable, allowing two or fewer runs in five of his last six outings. Marlins’ pitcher Jesus Luzardo remains inconsistent. He just conceded six runs against the Brewers and has a mediocre 4.38 career ERA against the Braves. |
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09-17-23 | Seahawks +5.5 v. Lions | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 88 h 16 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Seattle is 4-0 SUATS in this series, as well as 21-9 SU and 20-8-1 ATS when coming off a loss and facing an opponent coming off a win. In addition, Seattle’s head coach thrives against teams coming off a win from this division, going 11-3 outright in his career, including 5-0 when the foe is coming off an upset win. Finally, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is 8-3 ATS as a dog with the Seahawks when facing an opponent coming off a SU underdog win, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 7 points. |
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09-17-23 | Ravens v. Bengals -170 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -170 | 88 h 8 m | Show |
Conference Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units NFL division teams in Game Two of the season, coming off a division loss in Game One, are 12-1 SU and 10-2-1 ATS since 1990 if they were a playoff team last season, including games against opponents who are coming off a SUATS win. The Ravens are a horrible 2-7 SU and 0-7-1 ATS record of late when coming off a no-division game and taking on an opponent off a division game. The Bengals 8-1 ATS when coming off a road game and facing a foe off a home game. Finally, playing on any NFL home team in Game Two coming off a loss if they were a playoff team last season and they are facing a division opponent coming off a win is a perfect 10-0 ATS since 2010. |
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09-17-23 | Bears +3 v. Bucs | 17-27 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucs are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games at Raymond James Stadium and 1-4 ATS in the first of a two-game homestand. The Bears are 6-3 ATS in the first of consecutive road games. Tampa comes into this one off a phony 20-17 win at Minnesota in which they lost the stats, 369-242, whereas the Bears were edged, 329-311, in total yards in their 18-point loss to the Packers. Finally, Tamp QB Baker is only 9-21-2 as a favorite in the NFL, including losing his last eight. |
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09-17-23 | Chiefs v. Jaguars +3.5 | 17-9 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia HC Pederson is 16-12-1 ATS in his NFL head coaching career as an underdog when seeking revenge, including 4-0 ATS in the last four games. And Jacksonville brings a perfect 6-0 ATS home dog log into this contest – winning all six games outright! Consider that the Chiefs come in with a 2-7 ATS record in the last nine regular-season games against the AFC South, and are 1-4 ATS after a Thursday contest. |
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09-16-23 | Wyoming +30 v. Texas | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 72 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Steve Sarkisian became just the third former assistant to knock off Nick Saban. In the same vein, these same former assistants are just 1-6 ATS in follow-up contests when tackling .750 or greater foes. UT just 3-8 ATS at home before battling the Bears. Finally, favorites of 16 or more points coming off an upset win over Alabama are 2-9 ATS since 1980, including 0-4 ATS if they were a dog of 7-plus points versus the Crimson Tide. |
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09-16-23 | Syracuse v. Purdue +2.5 | Top | 35-20 | Loss | -105 | 72 h 0 m | Show |
NCAAF Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The Boilermakers are 7-2 ATS in games in which both teams enter off an ATS win and 8-2 ATS as a home dog with a win percentage less than .666. Additionally, Home teams in Game Three of the season, who were in a bowl team last season and are coming off a road win that was preceded by a season-opening home loss, are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS since 2017. Finally, Syracuse versus sub-.666 avenging foes, is just 3-9 SU and 1-11 ATS in this role (0-11 the last eleven). |
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09-16-23 | Georgia Tech +18.5 v. Ole Miss | 23-48 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Lane Kiffin has struggled at home in non-conference contests, going 8-13 ATS overall in his career, including 2-10 ATS at home when coming off a non-conference clash. We are concerned that Ole Miss had a tough time with Tulane last week without their star QB Michael Pratt. Kiffin saw his explosive RB Quinshon Judkins completely bottled up (18 carries for 48 yards) and could not put the Green Wave away until kicker Caden Davis hit a 56-yard field goal in the final two minutes. New Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key was a former Nick Saban assistant and knows the SEC, and his troops are averaging 41 PPG and are 2-0 ITS (In The Stats) to starts his tenure. We believe a take is in order tonight. |
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09-16-23 | Nationals v. Brewers -1.5 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers have everything to play for this weekend while the struggling Nats are just trying to close out their season. Washington has lost four of five heading into this series and the Brewers have won five of seven. The Brewers will be in a great spot on Saturday with their ace, Burnes, on the hill. Despite going 0-2 in his last five starts, Burnes has an ERA under three in that span. The Nats' Williams has an ERA over seven in his last five starts and over five on the road this season in 14 starts. Williams also has been bitten by the long ball this season and the Brewers are a far better home run-hitting team at home this season. Look for the Brewers to move one step closer to the National League Central Division title with a win |
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09-16-23 | Rays v. Orioles +112 | 0-8 | Win | 112 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore just needs to win one game to salvage something from this series, and they're fortunate it's at home. Tampa Bay isn't a bad team on the road, but they're much worse than when they're in the Trop. Tyler Glasnow has given up at least three runs in both of his starts against the Orioles this year. In one of those, the final damage was six. Grayson Rodriguez has stopped the bleeding at two runs each time he faced the Rays. Rodriguez is also backed up by a bullpen that leads the league in WAR. If there's a team that can survive losing an All-Star closer, it's the 2023 Orioles. Baltimore's pitching gets the job done at home, securing a crucial victory. |
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09-16-23 | Tennessee v. Florida +6.5 | Top | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 72 h 38 m | Show |
SEC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Gators are 5-1 ATS in the last six, even with last year’s wild loss when UF was beaten 38-33 while a double-digit dog. UT on the other hand struggles early, their Game 3 record is an embarrassing 0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in game three versus the SEC. After cake games versus FCS teams, the Vols limp around, going 1-5 ATS in the first game after an FCS opponent and in SEC openers, the Vols are also 1-5 ATS. Take them on the road and in games where the home team is seeking revenge, like this one, Tennessee is 3-10-1 ATS, including 0-6 ATS if the foe is coming off a win. Finally, Florida’s Bill Napier is 17-8 ATS as the underdog, including 3-0 SUATS at home. |
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09-16-23 | Yankees v. Pirates +113 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Yankees’ expected starter in this one is Luke Weaver. The veteran has been released by the Reds and Mariners this season due to his struggles. He has squandered eight runs in his last three outings spanning just 10.1 innings. Pirates’ starter Luis Ortiz has been solid recently, allowing two or fewer runs in three consecutive performances spanning 16.1 innings. He just limited the Braves to one run in 5.1 innings last time out. |
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09-16-23 | Penn State -14.5 v. Illinois | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 64 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Penn State is on a 13-2 and 11-3-1 ATS roll going back to last season and lands at No. 7 in this week’s AP Top 25, one of three Big Ten teams in the Top Ten. The Nittany Lions can also claim one of today’s biggest revenge motives, falling to the Illini, 20-18, as 24.5-point home chalk in their last meeting in 2021. PSU comes into this matchup, going 6-1 ATS the last seven as conference road favorite, 6-2 ATS with conference revenge, and 3-1 ATS in the last four series meetings. Finally, the visitor is 24-16 ATS in Penn State games. |
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09-16-23 | Kansas State -3.5 v. Missouri | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wildcats are always ready, or at least it seems that way, having suffered through just one ATS losing campaign over the last 15 years. Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman has compiled a 28-14 SU and 25-13 ATS record since taking the job in Manhattan. A week ago, they took on a Troy team which exceled in the dog role, and promptly issued a 42-13 drubbing that goes along with a 375-76 rushing yards edge in the early going, with QB Howard an efficient 5/2 in the early going. The Tigers are annually figured as an upcoming force, but have had only 2 winning seasons over the last 8 years, & are in off a 17-pt ATS loss in narrow SU escape vs Middle Tennessee. |
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09-15-23 | Cubs -133 v. Diamondbacks | 4-6 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs are 19-15 SU as road favorites, and the Diamondbacks are 12-20 SU as home underdogs this season. Chicago has a serious advantage on the mound with Steele facing the rookie Pfaadt. The Cubbies are hitting .266 BA/.335 OBP/.453 SLG/.789 OPS in the second half of the season and have turned it up a notch in night games this year (.265/.343/.437/.779). They knocked around Pfaadt a few days ago at Wrigley and will feel confident against him on Friday with their ace Steele toeing the rubber. The Diamondbacks were outscored 18-2 in their last two games in Queens and will continue to struggle tomorrow against the NL Cy Young award contender. |
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09-15-23 | Twins -168 v. White Sox | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Twins have won five of their last nine games and four of their last six road games and have scored 29 runs in their last three road games. They’ve hit the ball well against right-handers and Scholtens has struggled on the mound for Chicago, giving up nine runs in his last three starts. He gave up eight runs in his last two home starts and with Chicago having the sixth-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Twins in this game. The White Sox have lost four of their last five games and five of their last seven home games. |
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09-15-23 | Rangers -116 v. Guardians | 3-12 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texas struggled during most of August but the Rangers have found their mojo, waiting each of the five and have won five of the last six played on the road. Cleveland has lost seven of its last 10 and is close to being eliminated from postseason contention. Texas Rangers starter Jon Gray has been hit hard in each of the last three outings but the Rangers have won each of the three as their bats have stepped up to make up for the below par starts from Gray. In two starts since being acquired by Cleveland, right-hander Lucas Giolito has been roughed up allowing 13 earned runs in only 10 innings pitched and the Guardians have been defeated in both games by a combined score of 26-6. Texas has injuries to key players such as Josh Jung and Adolis Garcia but other talented stars such as Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Johan Heim have stepped up in the absence of the others. |
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09-14-23 | Vikings +6.5 v. Eagles | 28-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Vikes’ QB Kirk Cousins is 28-9-1 ATS when his team is coming off a loss and facing a greater than .400 opponent coming off a win, including 7-1-1 ATS within the first four games of the season. Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in home openers the past six seasons, and 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS at home in Game Two of the season. Philadelphia comes into this one banged up defensively and defending Super Bowl losers standing 26-45-1 ATS as a favorite when coming off a SUATS win and facing a foe coming off a SUATS loss, including 17-37-1 ATS when favored by 10 or fewer points. Finally, Minnesota is 8-0-2 ATS as a dog of more than 6 points when coming off a SU favorite loss and taking on an opponent coming off a win. |
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09-14-23 | Navy +14 v. Memphis | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This year’s Tigers look mighty impressive after their 2-0 start, but the truth is they crushed a pair of cupcakes, beating Bethune Cookman, 56-14, and Arkansas State, 37-3. Navy comes in with a 7-1 ATS mark when coming off a home win, and 5-0 ATS road dog of late. Pair those stats with the Tigers’ weak 1-6 ATS record the last seven versus non-conference foes and a downright dismal 0-5 ATS failure when playing off a SUATS win, and we just can’t go against Navy this evening. To top it off, Memphis isn't the best of home favorites going 3-10 ATS. |
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09-14-23 | Rays v. Orioles -130 | 4-3 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bradish has arguably been the Orioles' most reliable starter this season and that has never been more evident than in his last five starts when the right-hander has gone 4-0 with an ERA under two and a half. In addition, the Orioles have won each of Bradish's last seven starts heading into Thursday night and he has an ERA under two and a half at home as well. Civale has pitched very well in his stint with the Rays and has been excellent on the road. This game will come down to execution and the Orioles have excelled at that all season. Expect the Orioles to work the pitch count and commit to a small-ball mentality tonight. They are fifth in baseball in sacrifice hits this year and have solid team speed. Baltimore has taken six of the nine games against Tampa Bay this season heading into the series opener. |
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09-14-23 | Rangers +141 v. Blue Jays | 9-2 | Win | 141 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texas starting pitcher Nathaniel Eovaldi has had three excellent appearances out of the last four. Over that stretch the right-hander has allowed four earned runs across 10 ⅔ innings, but each of the four runs were in one game, a 14-1 loss to Houston, while the right-hander did not allow any runs in each of the other three outings. Toronto starting pitcher Kevin Gausman has allowed seven runs across the last 17 innings. Both teams have struggled with injuries this season but Texas is missing just one big contributor at the plate in Josh Jung, while Toronto is without Brandon Belt, Matt Chapman and Danny Jensen who have all been productive this season when healthy. |
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09-14-23 | Diamondbacks v. Mets -116 | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kelly hasn't been the same pitcher on the road as at home this season. Opponents are hitting .262 against him in road starts, compared to .186 at home, with 21 more hits in six fewer innings pitched. He's also struck out 27 fewer batters away from the friendly confines of Chase Field. This has been even more apparent recently. Senga, meanwhile, has been dominant at Citi Field, holding opponents to a .186 batting average with 106 strikeouts in 82 innings. He sports a 2.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 14 home starts, with 22 combined Ks in his last two outings in Queens. The D-Backs, who don't hit as well on the road (.245 BA and .318 OBP), will be his next victims. |
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09-13-23 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -112 | 10-0 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There are plenty of reasons to pick the Blue Jays to win this game. It begins on the mound, where Toronto is significantly better, especially in the bullpen. The starters in this game are about equal, so relief pitching will be one of the greatest factors in this matchup. Offensively, Toronto evens up with Texas on paper because they get to face a lefty. The Blue Jays have a team batting average of .280 against southpaws in 2023. Jordan Montgomery is also a pitcher that they've faced 11 times in his career, including a game earlier this year when they knocked him out after five innings. This game will probably be close until the bullpens come in, and that's when the Blue Jays will pull away for the win. |
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09-13-23 | Braves -1.5 v. Phillies | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Spencer Strider enjoys pitching against the Phillies. The ace has limited them to three runs in 12 innings this season and has a dominating 1.62 ERA and a 6-0 record in six career meetings against the rivals. Phillies pitcher Cris Sanchez recorded a weak 4.88 ERA in August. I recommend the run line considering eight of the Braves' last 10 wins have been by two or more runs. |
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09-13-23 | Rays v. Twins +113 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tampa Bay starting pitchers Taj Bradley has struggled in three of the last four starts. The 22-year old allowed one run in five innings versus Cleveland in his best start of the last four, but gave up a combined 12 runs in 16 ⅓ innings in the other three starts. Minnesota starter Dallas Keuchel has had three solid starts in the last four outings. The southpaw gave up five runs in 3 ⅓ innings to Texas in his worst start of the last four, but in the three others gave up a combined two earned runs in 16 ⅓ innings. Minnesota won each of those four games. |
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09-12-23 | Cubs -171 v. Rockies | 4-6 | Loss | -171 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs slash .263 BA/.342 OBP/.435 SLG/.777 OPS at night (79 GP) and have turned it up in the second half of the season (.263/.333/.453/.786). They're scoring 1.1 more runs per game post-All-Star weekend. Flexen has given up 12 home runs in 13 home appearances (47.1 IP) with a 35:20 K:BB ratio. Chicago's impressive lineup will jump on him early and often. Assad has been dominant on the road, giving up just 29 hits in 41.1 innings, and has also been impressive in night games (1.13 WHIP). He'll fare just fine against a Rockies team hitting .234/.297/.396/.693 in the second half of the season. |
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09-12-23 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oakland has lost four of its last six overall and when playing head to head versus Houston, has lost 10 of its last 11. Oakland also struggles on the road as the Athletics have lost 15 of the last 20 away from home. Oakland starter JP Sears has had two straight strong outings, but in two appearances this season versus Houston, has allowed seven runs in 11 ⅔ innings. Houston starting pitcher Justin Verlander has had three strong outings over the last four appearances, allowing a total of seven earned runs across 24 innings but six of the seven runs were in one game while allowing just one run across 18 innings in the other three starts. Houston's lineup top to bottom is much stronger than Oakland’s as the Astros have received excellent production from Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman Jose Abreu, Yordan Alvarez and others. Houston does not have any of its position players on the injury list. |
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09-12-23 | Braves -118 v. Phillies | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves have won three of their last four games and six of their last seven road games and have scored 17 runs in their last three games. Philadelphia starter Wheeler has been shaky on the mound in recent home starts, giving up eight runs in his last three home starts. With Philadelphia’s bullpen struggling in recent games, they will have a hard time slowing down the Braves in this game. The Phillies have lost three of their last five games and three of their last four home games. Atlanta starter, Fried has done a good job on the mound for the Braves, especially on the road where he has given up only six runs in his last six starts. He gave up three runs in his last two starts against the Phillies, and with Atlanta having the second-best bullpen in the league, they will keep Philadelphia’s offense in check. Go with Atlanta to cover the money line. |
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09-11-23 | Diamondbacks v. Mets -131 | 4-3 | Loss | -131 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I like the Mets in the opener against the playoff-hungry Diamondbacks. Davies has not been sharp for the Diamondbacks this season and comes into this game with an ERA close to seven. Quintana, despite his record of just 2-5 overall, has pitched very well for New York. Quintana has almost consistently given the Mets a quality start and has an ERA under three in his last five starts. The Mets have also won three of their last four home games and scored over five runs per game in that span. Look for Quintana to keep the Diamondbacks off balance and the Mets lineup to power past Davies and the Diamondbacks in game one. |