Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-10-21 | Reds v. Braves -114 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Major travel disadvantage for the Reds as after playing Sunday at home had to fly to Cleveland for a makeup game Monday, laid an egg there to see their five-game winning streak end and then fly to Atlanta to open this series. The Braves were off Monday. Two big injury/rest notes here: Reds All-Star outfielder Jesse Winker (.307, 23 HR, 67 RBIs) is not starting, while Braves All-Star first baseman Freddie Freeman is back from a non-COVID illness. Cincy pitcher Sonny Gray has been shaky in three of his past four outings, while Atlanta's Drew Smyly rarely gives up more than three runs -- although he rarely goes more than five innings, either. The Braves are 5-1 in their past six series openers. |
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08-10-21 | Rays v. Red Sox -119 | 8-4 | Loss | -119 | 1 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Sox are scuffling in a major way, but most of that was away from home -- they are 14-5 in their past 19 at Fenway. Boston is also 3-0 at home vs. Tampa this year. Rays starter Luis Patino has been terrific at home but has a 7.41 road ERA in 17 innings and has never pitched at historic Fenway. Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has been trending the right way and has thrown at least five scoreless innings in three of his past six. The Red Sox are 9-2 in his last 11 starts overall. |
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08-10-21 | A's -138 v. Indians | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oakland is 12-4 coming off a day off (second-best winning percentage in MLB) and is hitting significantly better on the road this year than at home. Ace lefty Sean Manaea also is much better away as he has the third-lowest road ERA in the American League (2.64) and second-lowest road opponents' batting average (.198) and OPS (.565). Cleveland's Triston McKenzie is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA at home and 0-4 with a 6.52 ERA at night. |
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08-08-21 | Mets v. Phillies -160 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units About a month ago, I probably wouldn't have bet against the Mets' Taijuan Walker but he has fallen off a cliff or shrub or whatever your metaphor (do people fall off shrubs?). The Phillies' Zack Wheeler also is regressing a bit but is still a better pitcher. Honestly don't love a lot of games today but this seems safe with the Phils on fire. What do I know? I just watched Beaches with my lovely wife and am still crying ... not gonna cry Roy! |
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08-07-21 | Marlins v. Rockies -154 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Really not sure what to say. I've done some trading and I don't get this. Bet the Rockies at home. Amazing price considering Rox starter Austin Gomber has a 1.98 ERA at home. This feels at least 30 cents short. |
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08-07-21 | Royals v. Cardinals -158 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Still irked about Dodgers. Would have had the best day of season. Whatever. Price seems a bit low on this one. We won on the Cards on Friday and fully expect to again. Kwang Hyung Kim > Brad Keller. As Denzel said in Training Day said, this **** ain't chess it's checkers. |
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08-06-21 | Rangers v. A's -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The A's rested Thursday while the Rangers dropped their third straight, 5-0 at home to the Angels, then had to fly west. Oakland is a 11-4 following an off day. Texas has scored four runs in its last three games, is 4-17 in its last 21 overall and starts Mike Foltynewicz, who has an 8.38 road ERA. Back Chris Bassitt and Oakland to get a convincing win, laying 1.5 runs at -125. |
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08-06-21 | Marlins v. Rockies -151 | 2-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We've bet the Rockies all week, and they should have swept the Cubs but took two out of three. The Marlins aren't much better than the Cubs and are 15 games under .500 on the road. Miami's Sandy Alcantara is a good pitcher but worse away (5-6, 3.71 ERA) and at night (3-5, 4.06). Colorado is 17-5 in its past 22 at home vs. a righty. It starts German Marquez. He is 5-2 with a 1.99 ERA over his last eight starts and 4-1 with a 1.53 ERA over his last seven at home. VERY rare to see a total Under 10 in Denver but this one is set at 9.5. I'd probably still lean Under but will not play it. |
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08-06-21 | Tigers v. Indians -134 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I wouldn't call the Tigers hot garbage on the road, but perhaps warm refuse. Such a different team outside of Comerica Park. And rookie pitcher Matt Manning is the same, going 0-3 with an 8.20 ERA on the road -- in late June, he was bombed for nine runs in Cleveland. On the flip side, the Tribe's Cal Quantrill has quietly become one of the AL's better pitchers. He's 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA over his past five. Cleveland is 11-5 in its past 16 as a favorite. |
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08-06-21 | Mets v. Phillies -107 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a massive game in the NL East, and the Phillies come into it hot. In a matchup of two starters having strong seasons, the home team should have a nice edge that is not fully reflected in this line. Both these teams went deep into their pitching staffs using five pitchers each. The Phillies are 6-1 since June 29 coming off a road game in which they used at least five pitchers. Meanwhile, the Mets are 0-6 since July 27 coming off a game as a favorite in which they used at least five pitchers. |
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08-06-21 | White Sox -175 v. Cubs | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating; Units I've been fading the Cubs all week, and many times I probably will not when Kyle Hendricks is on the mound, especially at home, but man that lineup looks laughable today behind Hendricks with Willson Contreras getting the game off and Jason Heyward (not that he's any good) landing on the injured list. I don't see how the Cubs score much against the Sox's Lance Lynn (10-3, 2.07). The Sox do lose the DH but are keeping Eloy Jimenez's bat in the lineup by playing him (dangerously) in left field. The wind is blowing out pretty hard at Wrigley, and Hendricks does give up a lot of homers. Lynn does not. |
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08-05-21 | Cowboys v. Steelers -1 | 3-16 | Win | 100 | 54 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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08-05-21 | Phillies -143 v. Nationals | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Phillies starter Aaron Nola isn't nearly the ace he was in years past, but he's been pretty close the last two times out, allowing just three runs in 14 2/3 innings while striking out 14. The Nationals' new-look offense shouldn't be a problem for him. On the other side, Nationals starter Joe Ross spun five scoreless innings against the Phillies on July 26. Seeing him again with this quick turnaround is generally a big benefit to the offense with the familiarity. Plus, the Nationals' bullpen is a disaster right now. Even if it has to be late, the Phillies roll for their fifth straight win. |
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08-05-21 | Cubs v. Rockies -153 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units As I've said in this space and the Early Edge all week, I'll be FADING the Cubs in nearly every road game the rest of the season. Probably plenty at home, too. Yep, they burned me in a bit of a fluke on Wednesday, but this still will be a winning strategy overall. The Rockies will go with Antonio Senzatela, who hasn't pitched in about a month after a bout with COVID. His splits are much better at home and during the day. Chicago's Jake Arrieta might be the worst pitcher in the National League right now with a 9.55 ERA over his past eight, and he has really been hammered in three career starts at Coors Field. |
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08-05-21 | Red Sox v. Tigers +1.5 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let's try this again on Detroit after losing on the runline Wednesday. Boston lefty Martin Perez is really coming back to earth after a solid start to the season as he hasn't won in his past four and his July ERA was 6.26. Detroit has won five of its past seven at home vs. lefties. It's southpaw Tarik Skubal for the Tigers, and he has been better at home with a 3.74 ERA (also better during the day). The Red Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Tigers at -135 on the RL. |
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08-04-21 | Cubs v. Rockies -163 | 3-2 | Loss | -163 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I said in backing the Rockies on Tuesday that I'll be fading the Cubs PLENTY the rest of the season, and there's no reason why not to do so again here. While Tuesday's pitching matchup looked somewhat even, this doesn't. Colorado's Jon Gray has gone 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA since being reinstated from the injured list on June 25 and is 5-2 with a 3.14 ERA at home this year. Chicago's Alec Mills is 0-3 with a 5.93 ERA on the road. |
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08-04-21 | Braves v. Cardinals -104 | 7-4 | Loss | -104 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A common theme for the Braves is the inability to get to or over the .500 mark. Yesterday’s win over the Cardinals puts them at 53-54. With Drew Smyly’s inability to extend beyond five innings, I look for the Cardinals to capitalize against the Braves bullpen. Grab St. Louis in J.A. Happ’s Cardinals debut. |
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08-04-21 | Phillies v. Nationals -108 | 9-5 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We knew the Phils were going to be missing Andrew McCutchen, who landed on the IL earlier this week, but All-Star catcher JT Realmuto is getting the night off. Thus, I think Washington is a solid home wager at essentially a pick'em. Philadelphia pitcher Chase Anderson (2-4, 6.75) isn't very good and has an 8.74 ERA in 22.2 road innings. Washington's Paolo Espino has pitched to a 2.35 ERA with 15 strikeouts and two walks in his last three starts. |
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08-03-21 | Giants -178 v. Diamondbacks | 1-3 | Loss | -178 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is the old-timers special trend with one team (Giants) winning three straight and another (D-backs) losing three straight. Bet it the fourth time to happen again. We don't really need a system for that obvious wisdom. It’s Arizona. But Johnny Cueto was dominant in his last start against the Dodgers allowing no runs in a 5-0 win. Giants to win. |
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08-03-21 | Padres v. A's -157 | 8-1 | Loss | -157 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No Fernando Tatis Jr. for San Diego, which we knew due to injury, but also big trade acquisition Adam Frazier is out of the lineup as well even though the Padres add the DH. Apparently, it's simply because the A's are starting a tough lefty in Sean Manaea. Last Wednesday in San Diego, he held the Padres to one hit in six scoreless innings and has a 2.18 ERA and opponents' batting average of .196 since the start of June. Friars lefty Blake Snell was torched for seven runs over four opposite Manaea last week. Snell actually had good home numbers entering that one but has a ghastly 8.02 road ERA. San Diego is 0-6 in its past six as a road dog. |
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08-03-21 | Cubs v. Rockies -131 | 6-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Post-trade deadline, the Cubs might have the worst everyday lineup and bullpen in the National League -- and I say this as a fan. Complete white flag, and I don't mean the one with the W. I'll be fading them a lot the rest of the way. The Rox remain an excellent home team and Kyle Freeland has a 1.98 ERA over his last seven starts since June 22, the third-lowest ERA in the Majors over that span. The Cubbies are 1-8 in their last nine road games vs. a left-handed starter. |
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08-03-21 | Braves v. Cardinals +1.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -135 | 2 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta has alternated wins and losses every game since the break, the longest such streak in MLB history. The Braves did lose their most recent game Sunday for what that's worth. They start Max Fried, who is 2-4 with a 5.85 ERA on the road. It's the Cards debut of Jon Lester, and he was solid in two starts vs. the Braves this year while with Washington. St. Louis has won 15 of its past 21 at home since June 9, the best home win percentage in the majors over that span. St. Louis’ .667 win pct. (10-5) on Tuesdays this season is tops in the NL. Not predicting an outright win here, but I'll take the runline at -135. |
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08-03-21 | Pirates v. Brewers -222 | 8-5 | Loss | -222 | 2 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Big price, but the Pirates are sitting their best remaining hitter (post-Adam Frazier trade) in Bryan Reynolds as well as very good starting catcher Jacob Stallings. Both are excellent defensively, while Reynolds' 44 extra-base hits are tied for third among all National League outfielders. His 18 homers and 58 RBIs lead the team. That lineup likely won't do much against Adrian Houser, who has a 2.05 ERA in his past five starts and 2.49 in four outings this year vs. Pittsburgh. The Bucs start struggling rookie Max Kranick (7.31 ERA), who was roughed up at home last week by these Brewers. |
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08-03-21 | Twins v. Reds -119 | 7-5 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Twins have lost four of their last five games and now give the ball to RHP Kenta Maeda, who has been outstanding in his last five starts - even though the team has lost the last three. Minnesota looks lifeless at times and now is 18 games below .500. The Reds (56-50) are fighting hard to make the playoffs and are only four games behind in the race for the final NL wild-card spot. Cincinnati has won 14 of RHP Tyler Mahle’s 21 starts, including the last two. Take the Reds to win. |
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08-03-21 | Mariners v. Rays -153 | 4-2 | Loss | -153 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays were one of the big home favorites who were surprised Monday night, but they don't lose back-to-back at home often. Even with Monday's loss, the Rays are 27-9 at home since May 13, best in the majors over that stretch. They face Mariners All-Star lefty Yusei Kikuchi, who might be hitting a wall with a 7.71 ERA in his past four starts. Tampa's Luis Patino has pitched just 14.2 innings at home this year but has a 0.61 ERA. Seattle is 5-0 vs. Tampa Bay, which should be plenty of motivation for Rays manager Kevin Cash to give his guys. Nelson Cruz is 4-for-5 career off Kikuchi with two homers. |
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08-03-21 | Phillies -168 v. Nationals | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Washington had a chance at yesterday’s matchup, but its thin bullpen ultimately let the Nats down. The matchup today is much tougher. Washington lost in yesterday’s series opener, 7-5. The Nationals are 0-6 since Sept. 12, 2020, as a dog after a game as a home dog in which they allowed at least six runs. The Washington bullpen allowed six runs in that game including all five runs in the ninth inning. The Nationals are 1-10 since June 25 past the first game of a series after their bullpen allowed multiple runs in the previous game. |
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08-02-21 | Angels v. Rangers +1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 1 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels finally have announced their starting pitcher: Chris Rodriguez is being recalled but probably won't go more than a couple of innings. He's 2-0 with a 3.66 ERA in 19.2 big-league innings and this will be the rookie's first start. I feel comfortable taking the Rangers at home on the runline behind Dane Dunning, who is 4-2 with a 2.58 ERA at home. Texas is actually pretty competent in its own ballpark |
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08-02-21 | Phillies v. Nationals +108 | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Phillies LHP Ranger Suarez's last appearance came in relief against Washington on Thursday. He'll make his first start since 2018 this time around. That puts Suarez in a tough spot, as he gave up an unearned run, two hits and a walk on Thursday. Grab the Nationals to cash as home underdogs in RHP Josiah Gray’s team debut. |
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08-02-21 | Orioles v. Yankees -1.5 | 7-1 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Look for the Yankees to tee off on the Orioles' Jorge Lopez, who is 0-6 with a 7.43 ERA in his last nine starts. He owns a 7.23 career ERA versus New York, including an 8.44 ERA this season. Andrew Heaney makes his Yankees debut and is coming off two strong starts in which he allowed five earned runs over 13 innings while fanning 15. With D.J. LeMahieu expected back in the lineup, I'll back the Yanks -1.5 runs |
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08-02-21 | Indians v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -142 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Today is "Civic Holiday" in Canada so why this game is the lone matinee on the MLB schedule. I believe the Jays are going to have a massive home-field advantage this season with all the strict COVID protocols involving other teams. They will just want to get out of there because they are essentially under hotel lockdown (too bad because Toronto is awesome; I'd move there tomorrow if not so cold). Appears to be a huge pitching mismatch between Cleveland's Eli Morgan (1-7, 7.47) and Toronto's Robbie Ray (9-5, 3.04). Not much value on the Jays -260 on the money line, so we'll do the run line at -138. |
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08-01-21 | Red Sox +154 v. Rays | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In this matchup for the AL East lead, Tampa Bay does not have the advantage that this line would suggest. Boston desperately needs to salvage the series finale and should be all in to achieve that. There has been a value on Red Sox RHP Nick Pivetta as an underdog of late. Boston is 6-2 since Sept. 27, 2020 when Pivetta starts as an underdog. |
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08-01-21 | A's +106 v. Angels | 8-3 | Win | 106 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Daulton Jeffries has made one career start and Reid Detmers is making his Major league debut today. Neither of these pitchers will be much better than the other but the Angels have scored 1 run in the first three games of this series. The Athletics have the bullpen advantage and the lineup advantage with the Angels battling through injuries, take the As. |
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08-01-21 | Brewers v. Braves -160 | 2-1 | Loss | -160 | 2 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta's Charlie Morton is better than Milwaukee's Brett Anderson by a fair amount. Solid price |
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08-01-21 | Phillies -150 v. Pirates | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 1 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Phillies are desperate to avoid the sweep and they've got a significant pitching edge Sunday, with Kyle Gibson versus Mitch Keller. The Pirates have never seen Gibson, who made the All-Star team this season while with the Rangers. Keller just got recalled from the minors. In the majors this year, he's posted a 7.04 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. Lay it. |
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07-31-21 | Twins v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
10* Total of the Week The 0ver is 15-4-2 in Twins last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning record, 21-6 in Twins last 27 during game 2 of a series, and 26-10-3 in Twins last 39 vs. a team with a winning record. While the over is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 interleague home games, 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter, and 5-1-1 in Cardinals last 7 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record. |
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07-31-21 | Indians v. White Sox -148 | 12-11 | Loss | -148 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wow cheap price. The White Sox now have the best bullpen in the majors after landing Craig Kimbrel, whom I assume is available. Not like he had to move. If Chicago leads after six innings the rest of this season with Michael Kopech, Kimbrel and Liam Hendriks, it's over. The ML is a bit low because Sox starter Dallas Keuchel is meh. But the Indians are in white-flag territory. |
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07-31-21 | Mariners -128 v. Rangers | 4-5 | Loss | -128 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners have that last AL wild card in sight, only 2.5 games back, and know they have to win games against bad teams like the Rangers. This bet is mostly against Texas' Taylor Hearn making just his third start this season; the first two were Rangers losses. New Seattle starter Tyler Anderson had a decent season with the Pirates who went 9-9 in his starts. He’ll give up a few, but I’m expecting the Mariners to jump all over Hearn. Seattle to win. |
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07-31-21 | A's -143 v. Angels | 0-1 | Loss | -143 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Angels starter Jaime Barria will be pitching for the team for just the fourth time this season. He has an expected slugging percentage of .496 in his limited work at the Major League level, which isn’t good, and he is likely to struggle against a solid A’s lineup. I see Cole Irvin as a pitcher who should be able to keep Oakland in the game; he has only allowed more than four earned runs once all year in 20 starts. I’ll back the A’s to win their eighth straight against the Angels. |
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07-30-21 | A's -111 v. Angels | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Just like I thought Thursday's line was way too short on the A's, I think this is too. Remember, the Halos are without three of their best hitters on the injured list with Jared Walsh joining this week. Shohei Ohtani walked three times in Thursday's loss, and I don't know why the A's would bother pitching to him (or any team would right now). It's All-Star Chris Bassitt (10-3, 3.46) on the mound for Oakland. He's 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in two starts this year against the Angels, who have lost four in a row vs. teams with winning records. |
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07-30-21 | Twins +1.5 v. Cardinals | 1-5 | Loss | -160 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Twins will scratch ace Jose Berrios as he was traded to Toronto so I will jump the Cards at -150 on the runline while they are still moneyline underdogs. They won't be for long. I'd take St. Louis as a ML dog right now if I knew Nolan Arenado was playing, but he's in question with a bruised right forearm. Plus, not known yet whom Minnesota will start but I feel more than comfortable at the Cards +1.5 with it not being Berrios. Wade LeBlanc has been serviceable on the mound for the Redbirds. |
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07-30-21 | Mariners -158 v. Rangers | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners are just 2.5 games behind the final wild card spot and face what is now the worst lineup in the AL and one of the worst starters in Kolby Allard. (Texas has lost seven straight Allard starts.) Meanwhile, Logan Gilbert is the hottest starter in baseball with the M’s winning his last 10 starts, including all five of his road starts. The Rangers are batting only .159 and averaging just 1.8 runs since the All-Star break. Mariners to win. |
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07-30-21 | Orioles v. Tigers -150 | 4-3 | Loss | -150 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's Matt Harvey Day! Wait, is Harvey actually good again? Rather improbably, the Orioles right-hander has pitched six shutout innings in back-to-back starts to "lower" his ERA to 6.65. Sorry, I'm not buying that the Dark Knight is back. The Tigers have won 10 straight at home and go with lefty Tarik Skubal, who has been better at home this year. He has allowed two earned or fewer in three of his past four at Comerica Park, and the O's have never seen him. They are 6-15 in their last 21 games vs. a left-handed starter. |
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07-30-21 | Yankees -160 v. Marlins | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees will lose the designated hitter, which is usually Giancarlo Stanton, but presumably Friday will be the debut of trade acquisitions Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo. Good look navigating that lineup. Jameson Taillon's road ERA is 6.08, but he has turned things around away from home in allowing just four earned runs over 20 innings in his past three on the road -- and against lineups much better than Miami's. Overall, Taillon has allowed two earned or fewer in six of his last seven outings. Plus, if you have ever been to South Florida, this will be a Yankees home crowd if that type of thing matters to you. |
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07-29-21 | A's -139 v. Angels | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Books just opened this because the Angels will not start Alex Cobb as they hoped (blister) but instead Dylan Bundy (1-7, 6.69). He's the West Coast version of Matt Harvey and should always be faded. His ERA in 5.2 innings vs. Oakland this year? 17.47. A's starter Frankie Montas has a 1.42 ERA in two starts vs. the Angels, who lost another big bat to IL this week in Jared Walsh. Meanwhile, it should be the debut of A's trade acquisition and outfielder Starling Marte. |
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07-29-21 | Orioles v. Tigers -150 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I suppose you worry about a team a day after scoring 17 runs as it usually seems then said team scores like one, but Detroit was without two of its better hitters Thursday in their 17-14 win over the Vikings, err Twins, in Jonathan Schoop and Miguel Cabrera and both are back in there tonight. Detroit enters on a nine-game home winning streak, its longest since a 10-game streak from July 14-August 15, 2013. Former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize (5-5, 3.63) generally won't last more than five innings but usually not give up more than two runs. It's southpaw Alexander Wells for the Birds (1-1, 4.35) and Detroit is 7-3 in its past 10 vs. a lefty. |
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07-29-21 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Red Sox | 13-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pretty even pitching matchup overall between lefties Hyun Jin Ryu and Eduardo Rodriguez, but Ryu has a 3.00 ERA this year in two starts vs. Boston and Rodriguez has a 5.73 in two vs. Toronto. What sways me toward the Toronto runline is that Sox WAR leader Rafael Devers (3.7 WAR, 27 HRs, 82 RBIs) isn't playing. He has been scorching hot of late. I almost never take outright MLB underdogs on the moneyline. |
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07-28-21 | Rockies v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 102 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Unit Total of the Month Heaney (6-7, 5.32 ERA) gave up two runs on four hits in seven innings in a 3-2 victory over the Minnesota Twins on Thursday. That result couldn't have come soon enough for Heaney, considering his previous outings. The 30-year-old posted a 1-4 record with an 8.79 ERA in his previous five starts. So perhaps it's no surprise that Heaney gave himself a little pep talk after each inning against the Twins. Heaney will be opposed Wednesday by Rockies right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez (3-6, 6.06), who has surrendered six runs or more in four of his 15 starts. The most recent such occurrence came July 16 when he was rocked for seven runs and nine hits in just four innings of a 10-4 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. |
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07-28-21 | White Sox -170 v. Royals | 2-3 | Loss | -170 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox are 16-0 as a road favorite of at least -135 after playing as a road favorite when their opponent's starter has a strikeout-per-walk ratio less than 2.00 on the season and it is not a series opener. The Royals are 0-15 as a dog of at least +125 when they are coming off a game as a dog in which their bullpen allowed multiple runs and it is not a series opener. |
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07-28-21 | Brewers -150 v. Pirates | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pittsburgh didn't put up any fight in the series opener and now will face Brewers RHP Adrian Houser, who has helped bring significant success to the team of late. Milwaukee rolled to a 9-0 victory on Tuesday and is 8-0 since June 8, 2019 in the second game of a series following a win by at least five runs as a favorite. Pittsburgh's offense was unable to get going even as that contest went on. The Pirates are 0-13 since May 23 after a game as underdogs in which they did not score after the third inning. |
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07-28-21 | A's +121 v. Padres | 10-4 | Win | 121 | 1 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’ve got a battle of southpaws in San Diego today with Blake Snell vs. Sean Manaea. Manaea is coming off a 13 strikeout performance and should be able to get deep into the game. Blake Snell has been very hit or miss, and the Athletics are good at taking their walks. Neither of these teams are exceptional against lefties so take the value in the dog. |
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07-28-21 | Astros -110 v. Mariners | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seattle might have the slight starting pitching edge in lefty Yusei Kikuchi over Jake Odorizzi, but the Astros have the vastly better lineup and bullpen. Plus, the Mariners players are still apparently outraged that management traded their best reliever to Houston on Tuesday. You won't get Houston at this low of a price often so it's worth the road risk -- plus, the team kills lefties. |
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07-27-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers -135 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Not sure I've ever backed a team as a betting favorite on a 12-game losing streak, but there's a first for everything. To be fair to Texas, the past 10 of those losses have been on the road (they have led for one half-inning in that span) and the team has been pretty competitive this year at home. Pitcher Dane Dunning is 3-2 with a 2.54 ERA at home and has a 2.89 ERA in his past four starts overall, three of them won by the Rangers. Only the Rockies have fewer road wins than the Diamondbacks, who are 0-7 this year vs. the American League. |
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07-27-21 | Reds v. Cubs -175 | 7-4 | Loss | -175 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units |
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07-27-21 | Yankees v. Rays -144 | 4-3 | Loss | -144 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays are 10-0 in the first game of a home series with rest after a contest as road favorites in which they hit at least one home run. The Yankees are 0-9 as underdogs following a game as dogs in which they hit more homers than their opponent and 0-8 all-time with LHP Jordan Montgomery as underdogs when he had a WHIP of better than 1.2 in his previous start. |
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07-27-21 | Brewers -114 v. Pirates | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The first-place Brewers aren’t going with their best starter in LHP Brett Anderson, but the price is cheap because of it. Meanwhile, LHP Tyler Anderson has had a rebirth of sorts with Pittsburgh, which is 9-9 behind him. One of victories was a 2-0 triumph over Milwaukee on July 4. That defeat ended the Brewers' six-game winning streak in the series. Milwaukee has been dominating the Pirates for over a decade and will win again on Tuesday. |
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07-26-21 | Rockies v. Angels -140 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Coming out of the All-Star break, Angels RHP Shohei Ohtani looked extremely sharp on the mound and he should benefit from extra rest again. This is an opportunity for Ohtani to start as a solid home favorite, a spot in which he has shined. The Angels are 7-0 since May 13, 2018 when Ohtani starts as a home favorite of at least -125. Colorado has lost back-to-back games, both by one run to the Dodgers. The Rockies are 0-14 SU since August 12, 2011 as underdogs of at least +130 when they are coming off two straight one-run losses. |
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07-26-21 | White Sox -118 v. Royals | 3-4 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kansas City is riding a season high-tying five-game winning streak after sweeping a three-game home series against Detroit. But the bubble has to burst soon as the team is 13 games under .500 and hosting a division leader. Royals LHP Mike Minor has allowed at least four runs in four of his last five starts and is 1-3 lifetime against Chicago. Meanwhile, White Sox LHP Dallas Keuchel is 6-1 versus Kansas City. Take Chicago. |
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07-26-21 | Reds v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -113 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
Gonna jump on this total at 8.5 while I can because I'm seeing it dropping to 8 at some books. Weather/winds don't look to be a factor, but the Cubs don't have big bat Javy Baez in the lineup against Wade Miley (8-4, 2.72). His road ERA is 2.52. Chicago's Kyle Hendricks (12-4, 3.61) has a 2.19 ERA in four starts this month and allowed one run over six in his lone outing vs. Cincinnati this year. |
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07-26-21 | Nationals v. Phillies -114 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Washington Nationals continue to slide as they have lost four straight. On Today, they will battle an NL East divisional opponent in the Philadelphia Phillies, with Joe Ross returning from the injured list. Ross has not pitched since July 4 and likely won’t be over-extended. Look for the Phillies to capitalize in the latter innings against the Nationals bullpen that has struggled as of late. |
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07-26-21 | Braves v. Mets -142 | 2-0 | Loss | -142 | 2 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Game 1 of a doubleheader so scheduled for seven innings. For what it's worth, the Braves have lost their past four DH openers and this is their sixth already this year. Since sweeping Washington in both games on April 7, Atlanta has lost five of seven doubleheader games overall. Mets pitcher Marcus Stroman comes off a dominant outing in Cincinnati and is 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five career starts against the Braves. New York has won six straight series openers. |
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07-24-21 | Rangers v. Astros -206 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Yes, Kyle Gibson (6-2, 2.86) is on the mound for Texas, and he has nice numbers overall and vs. Houston but appears to fading of late with a 7.41 ERA this month. Texas should have traded him when value was high. Even better: The Rangers' most dangerous hitter, Joey Gallo, is not in the lineup. Again, big price and will use in a parlay, but the Gallo news convinced me. Under might be wise too. |
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07-24-21 | Blue Jays v. Mets +110 | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blue Jays have lost their last three games, and the Mets have won their last two. Taijuan Walker is on the mound for the Mets, which means they are likely to win. They’ve won 14 of his 17 starts this season, including all eight of his starts at home where his ERA is 1.75. Bettors are up 12 units overall behind him this season. How is Walker not favored today? Mets to win. |
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07-24-21 | Braves v. Phillies -121 | 15-3 | Loss | -121 | 1 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seems a solid price on the Phils, who are pretty darn good at home. Checking the lineups (this is why you won't see my NFL/NCAAF picks early in weeks; I'm always going to wait), it appears every key Philadelphia player is in there. Braves starter Drew Smyly is meh and has a 6.75 ERA vs. the Phillies this year in 9.1 innings. Vincent "don't call me Vega -- Royale with cheese!" Velasquez was very good in his lone 2021 start against Atlanta. |
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07-23-21 | Tigers +108 v. Royals | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tigers haven’t lost a game since the All Star break and they are 38-27 since May 8th, good for fifth best in the AL. Willy Peralta has been great, having not allowed more than one run in his last five starts. Kris Bubic has been hit hard lately after starting the season strong. He has allowed four home runs and nine walks in his last three starts. I don’t see a reason not to keep backing the Tigers as they are one of the most profitable teams all season. Take the Tigers at plus money. |
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07-23-21 | Yankees +1.5 v. Red Sox | 2-6 | Loss | -185 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is the first time in his Yankees career that AL Cy Young favorite Gerrit Cole is a betting underdog (see news feed), so I have to take NYY on the runline simply out of principle because I won't get Cole at +1.5 again. I'd probably take the Yanks on the moneyline if they weren't missing a few injured/COVID guys. While Cole struggled for a bit after the sticky stuff crackdown, he has dominated in his past two. New York should have won Thursday's opener at Fenway, but Aaron Boone for some reason didn't use closer Aroldis Chapman. Presuming he's available here. |
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07-23-21 | Rays -117 v. Indians | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Indians really need to take advantage of quality starts and squandered one Thursday, using up all their key bullpen members in the process. That puts Cleveland in a tough spot here as its starter tonight, Zach Plesac, is unlikely to be able to work deep into the game. Tampa Bay was victorious in Thursday's series opener, 5-4, in 10 innings. The Rays are 11-0 since Sept. 19, 2020, past the first game of a series coming off a one-run win as a favorite of less than -230. |
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07-23-21 | Blue Jays +110 v. Mets | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Steven Matz returns to his old stomping grounds in New York tonight to face the Mets and he has been much better on the road at 6-2 with a 3.70 ERA this season. Tylor Megill has now made five starts this season although against only three total teams. He hasn’t faced a lineup nearly as good as the Blue Jays yet and although the Blue Jays lose the DH, they won’t be losing a key player in the lineup. The Mets struggle against lefties, take the Blue Jays with plus money. |
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07-23-21 | Braves v. Phillies -150 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Phillies are an excellent home team but no surprise they were routed by the Braves on Thursday because Atlanta had the clear pitching edge. That belongs to Philadelphia on Friday with Zack Wheeler (7-2, 2.44). He has a 1.37 ERA in three starts this year vs. the Braves. The Phils rested outfielder Andrew McCutchen and All-Star catcher JT Realmuto on Thursday and both should be back in there. Atlanta starter Max Fried has a 6.43 road ERA. |
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07-23-21 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -136 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs will have Kris Bryant back in the lineup -- barring a trade (Nelson Cruz deal burned me Thursday night) -- and closer Craig Kimbrel should be available after he wouldn't have been yesterday. This is Chicago's first home game since the break and the Cubs are simply a different club at Wrigley. Starting pitcher Zach Davies has a 2.78 ERA in day games this year. I don't take much stock in day of the week trends, but Arizona is a laughable 2-14 in its past 16 Friday games and just horrid on the road. The Snakes are without leading hitter and OBP guy Josh Rojas as well. He's tied for the team lead with a WAR of 2.1. I tend to agree with Justin Perri on the Over and that's a great stat he provided. |
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07-22-21 | A's v. Mariners +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -131 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Should Seattle even be a home dog? Consider that starting pitcher Chris Flexen (9-3, 3.35) has a 1.77 ERA in his past seven starts overall and has a 1.76 ERA at T-Mobile Park, the third-best home ERA in the majors among qualified pitchers. The Mariners are 38-21 between Thursday and Sunday this season and way under .500 the other days. Yes, Oakland's Sean Manaea (6-6, 3.28) was brilliant in Seattle earlier this year, but he hasn't won since mid-June and has a 5.29 ERA this month. The Mariners are 7-1 in their last eight home games vs. a left-handed starter. We'll take the Seattle RL (-135) to be safe. |
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07-22-21 | Cubs v. Cardinals -115 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Two breaks for the Cardinals here: Kris Bryant, who destroys left-handed pitching, is out again (truly might be traded any minute now) for the Cubs, and stud closer Craig Kimbrel surely isn't available after pitching the past two games. St. Louis blew a ninth-inning lead Wednesday because closer Alex Reyes wasn't available but now should be. It's southpaw Kwang Hyun Kim for the Redbirds, and he brings in a career-best 21.0-inning scoreless streak, which is the longest active of any NL starter. Chicago's Adbert Alzolay is 1-6 with a 4.89 ERA on the road. |
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07-22-21 | Rays v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Unit10* Top Play Total Hernandez and company will try their luck against right-hander Luis Patino (1-2, 4.87 ERA), who will get the nod on Thursday after being added to the taxi squad from Triple-A Durham. "I don't know if we have an exact message to give him, but we know we want him to start," Rays manager Kevin Cash said of the 21-year-old Patino. "He's done good things in Triple-A. Young pitcher that we've got to find a way to give him a little bit of a lane, create a path for him to take off here for us. And hopefully, (Thursday) is the start of that." Patino last pitched for Tampa Bay on July 2, allowing seven runs on as many hits in 5 1/3 innings in an 11-1 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. He then yielded five earned runs in his next two appearances with the Bulls. |
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07-22-21 | Padres -142 v. Marlins | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Marlins have lost four of their last five and send Zach Thompson to the mound whom they are 2-4 behind this season. However, he’s been much better than that, allowing two earned runs or fewer in five of those starts. But I’m on the Padres because of Blake Snell. They’ve won three straight behind him. San Diego to win. |
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07-22-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox -136 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Getting a rather low number on Boston at home because oddsmakers aren't sure what to make of young pitcher Tanner Houck (0-3, 3.38) in just his eighth big-league appearance. In nine career innings against New York, the right-hander righty has allowed one unearned run on two hits while striking out seven. Yanks lefty Jordan Montgomery has a 5.32 road ERA and Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts kills him career (player prop hint). No Gary Sanchez tonight for the Bombers on top of Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela still on the COVID list. |
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07-22-21 | Braves -125 v. Phillies | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta's Charlie Morton has a 2.61 ERA and 0.97 WHIP on the road this year. Look for Freddie Freeman (3 HR, 5 RBI in the last five games) and the Braves to get to lefty Matt Moore, who has not gone more than 4.1 innings in his last three starts. |
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07-22-21 | Rangers v. Tigers -132 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Been cashing all week on Detroit in this series and see no reason why the Tigers won't complete the four-game sweep and win their sixth straight overall and eighth in a row at home. Texas has lost eight in a row, all by at least two runs, and is the only winless team since the break. And it starts one of the worst pitchers in the AL in Mike Foltynewicz (2-9, 5.91). He only gave up 10 runs over 1.2 innings last time out AND will be on short rest, meaning he probably won't be out there long. He may not be out there long simply as he's not good. It almost doesn't matter which pitcher Detroit is starting (Tyler Alexander). He won't be out there long, either, with a season high of 3.1 innings pitched. |
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07-21-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -151 | 4-2 | Loss | -151 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dodgers won in walk-off fashion on Tuesday night, 8-6, completing an incredible comeback against the Giants. The win propelled the Dodgers to an impressive 31-15 record at home. I expect momentum to continue on Wednesday as the Dodgers have won four straight starts with Julio Urias pitching. Grab L.A. |
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07-21-21 | Cubs v. Cardinals -120 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs scored six runs in the top of the ninth on Tuesday, which is one fewer than the output from their previous two games combined. This offense just cannot get it going, and I expect that continues on the road against Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright. The veteran has a 2.84 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at home compared to 5.35 and 1.29 on the road. He blanked the Cubs over eight innings at home in May, and I expect similar results on Wednesday. Back the Cardinals and make sure to list Wainwright on your ticket. |
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07-21-21 | Twins v. White Sox -150 | 7-2 | Loss | -150 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In 15 matchups this season the White Sox have won 12 while averaging 7.1 runs per game. That puts immense pressure on a struggling Twins bullpen on Wednesday. Grab the White Sox to win their 13th game this season over the Twins. |
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07-21-21 | Rangers v. Tigers -113 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Really, neither starting pitcher -- Jordan Lyles or Matt Manning -- is very trustworthy, although Manning is a promising prospect and has pitched pretty well in three of his five big-league starts. This is simply fading the Rangers, who have lost seven straight all by multiple runs. Detroit has won five in a row overall and seven consecutive at home, its longest home win streak since a 10-game run from July 14-August 15, 2013. Texas has the worst road record in the AL at 13-35 and is equally awful against right-handed pitching. |
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07-21-21 | Mariners v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It appears the wind will be blowing slightly in from right to left at Coors Field this afternoon. Rockies pitcher Austin Gomber (6-5, 3.48) has a 1.48 ERA at home. The Mariners will use an opener before turning to Chris Flexen, who has a 1.77 ERA over his past seven outings. The Under is 10-1 in Colorado's past 11 at home as the team's pitching staff has really improved. |
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07-21-21 | Royals v. Brewers -170 | 6-3 | Loss | -170 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I see no reason to wait until early Wednesday to make this wager after KC burned me Tuesday. Looks to be a fairly lopsided pitching matchup with Kansas City's Brad Keller (6-9, 5.97) opposed by Milwaukee lefty Eric Lauer (3-4, 3.83). Keller has been a bit better away yet still allowing batters to hit .313 off him on the road. Lauer has allowed just two runs and 11 hits over 18.1 innings in his past three. He loves day games with a 2-0 record and 1.86 ERA. The Royals are not great vs. lefties, Tuesday's upset against mediocre Brett Anderson aside. |
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07-20-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4.5 | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks will aim to be the first team since the 2006 Miami Heat to go down 0-2 in the NBA Finals and win the next four games. The rising play of Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to go to new heights. Expect the Suns' letdown over Game 4’s final 90 seconds and squandering of a 16-point, first-quarter lead in Game 5 to haunt them. Look for Milwaukee to close out the NBA season with a championship. |
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07-20-21 | Twins v. White Sox -138 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I’m not a huge fan of Chicago LHP Dallas Keuchel’s stuff, but he’s learned to manage a game better than he did in his younger years, and he’s also led his team to victory in 11 of his 17 starts. The White Sox's offense should be able to attack Minnesota RHP Bailey Ober and get an early lead. Chicago has won three of its last four games while the Twins have lost four of their last five. The White Sox are headed to the playoffs and Minnesota has no hope for the postseason. Take Chicago to win. |
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07-20-21 | Padres -150 v. Braves | 1-2 | Loss | -150 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We backed the Padres behind Yu Darvish (7-3, 3.09) over the Braves and lefty Kyle Muller (1-2, 3.45) on Monday because the Friars generally destroy lefties. That game was rained out, and by all appearances it will be the same two starters tonight so nothing has changed in my mind. Atlanta is 1-3 since losing Ronald Acuna Jr. |
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07-20-21 | Phillies -125 v. Yankees | 4-6 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Phillies are just 9-9 behind RHP Aaron Nola. But we have New York RHP Domingo German’s rating sliding downward after a strong start to 2021, as the Yankees have lost four of his last five starts. New York still has COVID-19 issues, which have star performers like Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela sidelined. The Phillies are battling with wins in five of their last six games. Take Philadelphia to win. |
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07-20-21 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Unit MLB Total of the Month With Joe Ross still battling right elbow inflammation, Washington right-hander Paolo Espino (2-2, 3.33 ERA) will start. He last pitched in Friday's 24-8 loss to the Padres, allowing three runs on four hits in 2 1/3 innings. His last start came on July 9 against the Giants, when he allowed three runs in 3 2/3 innings. Espino is 0-0 with an 11.25 ERA in two career meetings with the Marlins, including a two-inning appearance on this season on June 25, when he allowed two runs, one earned, and three hits. All-Star left-hander Trevor Rogers (7-6, 2.31) faces the Nationals for the second time this season -- and his career. On May 2, he took the loss, giving up three runs on four hits over five innings. In his last start, the rookie gave up three runs -- two earned -- in four innings of a loss to the Braves. He struck out a season-low four batters and walked two. |
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07-20-21 | Royals v. Brewers -160 | 5-2 | Loss | -160 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams were off Monday; this was to be a night game but was pushed to the afternoon because there's apparently some other sporting event going on in Milwaukee on Tuesday night. Lefty Brett Anderson (2-5, 4.33) gets the call for the Brewers, swapping in for Eric Lauer (3-4, 3.83). Anderson isn’t as good overall but does have a 2.86 ERA in four home starts. The Royals have lost five straight on the road vs. southpaws and also lose the DH here. Kansas City's Mike Minor (6-8, 5.67) has allowed a whopping 24 runs over his past four outings. Milwaukee is 8-3 in its past 11 vs. a lefty. |
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07-20-21 | Angels v. A's -152 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 1 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Halos are 4-9 in their past 13 on the road after dropping Game 1 of this series on Monday and face good-looking young A's righty James Kaprielian (4-3, 2.90), who has a 1.38 ERA in four home starts and also is better during the day overall (2.41) than at night (3.49). It's lefty Jose Suarez (4-2, 2.29) for L.A. He has nice numbers but Oakland is 22-13 vs. southpaws and Suarez is a five-inning pitcher max. I probably would have considered the Under here if the wind wasn't blowing out a bit in Oakland. |
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07-19-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -127 | 7-2 | Loss | -127 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This line represents one of the two highest to which the Dodgers have played at home all season. Despite facing a strong starter in San Francisco RHP Kevin Gausman, Los Angeles still has a greater advantage in this game. The Dodgers are coming off a frustrating 6-5 extra-inning loss at Colorado. In a back-and-forth contest, the Rockies scored first before Los Angeles took the lead on three separate occasions. Since May 6, 2019, the Dodgers are 7-0 at home after a game in which their opponent scored first and Los Angeles moved ahead before going on to lose. |
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07-19-21 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -116 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Caleb Smith’s last start lasted 1 inning, in which he was pounded mercilessly by the Dodgers for a million hits and a million runs in what became 22-1 loss for the D-Backs. But if Matt Harvey can start a shutout for Baltimore (son of a ___!!!), then Caleb Smith has the potential for something similar. Off that one start, they’re sending him back out to the mound, not to the minors, and It’s not the Dodgers coming to town, it’s the Pirates, who average the fewest runs per game in MLB (3.63 overall, and only 3.13 on the road.) It’s not Walker Buehler starting for the opponent (his team wins practically every time he starts), it’s Chase De Jong, who has a 5.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. |
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07-19-21 | Rangers v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | 0-14 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units This total already has dropped to 8 at some books so we'll jump now -- doesn't look like the winds will be a factor. It's ace Kyle Gibson (6-1, 2.29) on the bump for Texas. His ERA in night games is 1.76. Former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize is on the bump for the Tigers (3-3, 3.59). He's on an innings limit so may not go more than five, but it should be a strong five. The Under is 8-3-1 in the Tigers' last 12 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. |
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07-19-21 | Mets v. Reds -110 | Top | 15-11 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Rating: 3 UnitMLB Play of the Day This would normally be Jacob deGrom's spot in the rotation for the Mets, but the Cy Young heavy favorite is on the injured list (as is star shortstop Francisco Lindor). Thus, it's fade time with Jerad Eickhoff (0-1, 4.97). In his lone road start, he was knocked around for five runs in D.C. The Mets aren't very good on the road as it is. Reds pitcher Vladimir Gutierrez has had back-to-back quality starts. |
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07-18-21 | Red Sox +111 v. Yankees | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am going to jump all over the Red Sox again after last night’s game. The Red Sox were up 1-0 while no-hitting the Yankees before it started raining. The Yankees were able to squeeze three runs in to win a 6-inning game 3-1. But it is the Yankees bullpen that is struggling without Jonathan Loaisiga and a sharp Aroldis Chapman right now. Jamison Taillon has been much better at home this season but the Red Sox have seen him once and scored three runs in 5.1 IP. Martin Perez is much better on the road with a 2.04 ERA and the Yankees have struggled against lefties this season. |
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07-18-21 | Mariners +116 v. Angels | 7-4 | Win | 116 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Logan Gilbert starts for the Mariners, which means they are going to win. The rookie right-hander has been a major driving force behind the surprising Mariners, who are only 3 1/2 games out the final wild-card spot. Seattle is 49-44 and has won eight straight behind Gilbert. He beat LHP Patrick Sandoval and the Angels 9-5 at Los Angeles on June 6. Take the Mariners to win. |
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07-18-21 | Indians v. A's -158 | 4-2 | Loss | -158 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Athletics suffered a 3-2 loss on Saturday, ending their three-game winning streak, but RHP Chris Bassitt is on the mound, which means they're most likely going to win. They’ve won 14 of his 19 starts this season, and he’s allowed fewer than two runs in three of his last four starts. Bassitt and the Athletics will get the win. |
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07-18-21 | Orioles v. Royals -133 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -133 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day The Royals will look to rebound from a loss to the Baltimore Orioles and take a series win this afternoon in Kansas City. The Orioles will send Matt Harvey (3-10, 7.70 ERA) to the mound, while fellow right-hander Carlos Hernandez (1-0, 4.98) will start for the Royals. Baltimore won Saturday with a big, early outburst. The Orioles scored two in the second and five in the third to build a 7-0 lead en route to an 8-4 victory. Harvey has lost nine straight decisions after starting the season 3-1. In his 12 starts since winning his third game, he's given up at least six earned runs four times. He's also had three more starts with five earned runs allowed. |
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07-18-21 | Twins v. Tigers +115 | 0-7 | Win | 115 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Willy Peralta has been very good this season in limited action and the Tigers swept the doubleheader against the Twins yesterday with an improbably walk off in the second game. JA Happ has an 8.29 ERA on the road this season but he did pick up the win against the Tigers in his last start. The Tigers have been hitting lefties well lately and they have all the momentum. Take the Tigers at plus money at home. |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns -165 | 123-119 | Loss | -165 | 28 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units I see no reason why the home team won't win every game of this series barring injury. Another extra day off in the Finals, which may help 36-year-old Chris Paul, who simply wasn't very good in the two games in Milwaukee. Jrue Holiday defensively has given Paul nightmares. However, I like the Suns because they should have won Game 4 and mostly because of the home/road shooting splits of Holiday and Khris Middleton in this postseason. For Holiday, it's 43.7 percent overall and 30.4 percent from deep at home and 37.5/28.3 away. For Middleton, it's an even steeper 46.8/38.0 at home compared to 40.4/31.5 away |
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07-17-21 | Red Sox +116 v. Yankees | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Gerrit Cole is 9-4 with a 2.68 ERA, but the Yankees are 9-9 behind him which equates to -10.40 units on the season. This is one of his cheaper prices because the Yankees have some COVID-19 issues (Aaron Judge out) and other injuries leaving them with lots of Triple-A players. The Red Sox beat Cole 9-2 20 days ago. Boston is 7-0 against the Yankees this season. Red Sox to win. |