Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-18-21 | Jazz v. Clippers +2.5 | 119-131 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Utah came out flat in the third quarter on Wednesday and that dismal 12 minutes did them in. The Jazz were just not as aggressive as L.A. Utah had 3 more turnovers, 4 fewer steals and only one block all night long. Donovan Mitchell didn’t look to be in great shape but he should be able to shoot better than 6 for 19 from the floor. Utah really blew a huge opportunity as they lost the home-court advantage and Kawhi Leonard was not even in uniform. Mitchell is the best player on Utah and he is dealing with a serious ankle problem, Donovan: “It’s something I have to deal with, it sucks… it’s tough when you’re trying things you normally do and you see spots you can get to, but you can’t.” Paul George was determined to be engaged in every facet of the game on Wednesday and he was as he led all scorers and he had more rebounds than anybody. Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris stepped up big time and when Morris shoots the ball well, the Clippers are usually very tough. Jackson, who has been working with L.A. assistant coach and ‘Mr. Big Shot’ Chauncey Billups, is playing with great confidence. He is shooting the long ball the best he has in his career. If you told the Clippers at the beginning of the season that they only had to win a Game 6 at home to make it to the Conference Finals, they would have thrown all their money into the pot. |
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06-18-21 | Brewers v. Rockies +173 | 5-6 | Win | 173 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockies have beaten ace-like starters Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Brandon Woodruff already on this homestand which began on Monday and is currently |
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06-18-21 | White Sox v. Astros -101 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Yesterday we noted that the White Sox were only 2-9 as the underdog and we went with Houston as the favorite. The Astros scored early and often against Dylan Cease for the expected win. Does this mean we should be on the favored White Sox — 37-16 when favored — tonight? Maybe it does. We’ll see. But we’re sticking with the Astros. Chicago lefty Carlos Rodon has been sensational with his 1.89 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. His last start was 7 innings of 1-hit, 1-run ball at Detroit, the worst-hitting team in the majors against left-handed pitching. Tonight, his assignment is against the best hitting team in the majors against lefties, at least via Batting Average. While the White Sox are known for winning a ton of games when the opponent starts a lefty (Luis Garcia of the Astros is not a lefty), it’s the Astros who have the best batting average against them: .286. As noted yesterday, Rodon and the White Sox staff have been facing a string of lower-scoring opposition over their last six series before making this stop in Houston, who leads MLB in runs per game (5.62, and 10 last night). |
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06-18-21 | Mets v. Nationals OVER 9 | 0-1 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mets’ lefty Joey Lucchesi looked good in two straight starts against the Padres — who let him go after last season. With the personal revenge mojo out the window, he now leaves a pair of pitcher’s parks — Petco and Citi Field — for a road game against an opponent that hits lefties better than righties. The Nationals’ Joe Ross has thrown 14 consecutive scoreless innings in his last two starts. Guess this had to happen eventually but with a guy whose full season ERAs have been 5.01, 5.06, 5.48 the last three seasons and is currently 4.19 after 12 starts in 2021, the other side would seem to be due to offset that scoreless streak with the runs necessary to play to Ross’ previously established typical performance. |
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06-16-21 | Twins v. Mariners +111 | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners beat the snot out of the Twins last night, winning 10-0. Seattle is now 19-14 at home, while Minnesota is 12-20 on the road. Somehow somebody who thinks they are a whole lot sharper than me figures Minnesota should be the favorite here tonight. Justus Sheffield will toe the slab for Seattle, and while his numbers aren't great, he has been his best at home. Sheffield is 4-1 with a 3.58 ERA in five home starts. The Twins hand the ball to Bailey Ober, and the 25 year old makes his fourth start of the season. He's been just average in his first three career starts. The Mariners are 7-2 in their last nine home games. |
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06-16-21 | Clippers +8 v. Jazz | 119-111 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Both of these teams have done what they had to do so far and that is win their home games. The margins of victories has been in the Clippers favor so far. Utah won both games in Salt Lake by an average of 5 points while L.A. won their two games at Staples Center by an average of 20 points. Donovan Mitchell did his best on Monday with 37 points but he did not shoot the ball particularly well. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard both got to the free-throw line for L.A. Monday and the streaky Marcus Morris was on the hot side. When Morris is hot, the Clippers roll. In the 6 post season victories by L.A. Morris has hit at 59% from deep. In the 5 losses in this post season, Morris has hit at only 21% from downtown. He is a huge key here. L.A. has to continue to challenge Rudy Gobert by going to the rack. The Clippers were a plus 12 in free-throw attempts Monday and that will need to continue. Gobert was in foul trouble on Monday and he only had 8 boards after pulling down a total of 32 rebounds in the Utah wins in this series. |
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06-16-21 | Phillies v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A couple o’ aces are on the hill in Dodger Stadium tonight, always a good potential set-up for a 2-1 ballgame. We’ll take 3-2. 4-3 would work, too. Clayton Kershaw bounced back from a couple of bad starts with 6 innings of 3-hit, 1-run ball vs. Texas in his last start. It was a 12-1 game but the Rangers started Mike Foltynewicz, hanging onto a major league career by a thread. Tonight’s visiting starter, Zack Wheeler, from his last nine starts, has median numbers of 7 1/3 innings pitched, 4 hits allowed, 1 run allowed. Wheeler has a 2.29 ERA, 0.90 WHIP. |
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06-16-21 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -167 | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The DBacks are in a full blown free fall. Just when it looked like they may actually win a game last night vs SF, they blew leads of 7-0 & 8-3 and lost 9-8. They have now won just 5 of their last 40 games and they’ve lost 21 straight road games! Last night’s game was as demoralizing as any of those losses and today will be a tough bounce back for Arizona. They will send Merrill Kelly to the mound and we look for SF to have a big night at the plate. Kelly has allowed 100 baserunners in just 75 innings this year and Arizona has lost the last 7 times he’s started. His last win was way back on April 27th. The Giants counter with Anthony DeSclafani who owns a solid 2.70 career ERA mark vs Arizona. In his last 3 starts DeSclafani has allowed a total of 4 earned runs on 11 total hits. He’s coming off a shutout complete game vs Washington on June 11th. The Giants have won all 4 games vs the Diamondbacks this season by a combined score of 27-14. Going back further, the DBacks have won just 5 of last 21 meetings with the Giants. |
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06-16-21 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights UNDER 5 | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The first game had a final score of 4-1. That said, I am expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. Getting the under five goals, at an underdog price, is providing very fair value. Both goalies are highly capable. While the Habs have seen the 'under' go 14-9-1 after allowing four or more goals, the 'under' is also a lucrative 8-1-2 when Vegas has played in the Conference Finals. |
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06-15-21 | Twins v. Mariners +118 | 0-10 | Win | 118 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chris isn’t exactly Flexen his muscles out there on the mound this season with a 4.68 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. But his home ERA is 2.67 vs. a road ERA of 7.27. Opposing batters are hitting only .260 against him in this park, compared to .355 on the road. J. A. Happ had his World Series Game 7-like opportunity vs. the Yankees in his last start, didn’t do much with it: 5 innings of 8-hit, 4-run ball, only 2 Ks. From his last five starts, Happ’s median length is 5 innings, median hits allowed 8, median runs allowed 4. He has allowed 5 home runs in his last 10 innings (two starts). Happ’s BAA (Batting Average Against) on the road, where he has allowed 21 runs in 25 1/3 innings, is .308. The Twins’ bullpen is generally not his friend, but it has been kind to people who wager against Minnesota, who is a slight favorite despite their .394 winning percentage. |
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06-15-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -180 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tampa Bay Lightning trail in a Stanley Cup playoff series for the first time his spring. However, the defending champions are not in uncharted territory as they look ahead today's home clash with the New York Islanders for Game 2 of their semifinal series. En route to last year's crown, the Lightning twice dropped the series opener before winning a series, including the Cup final against the Dallas Stars. Therefore, they are not all that fazed after Sunday's 2-1 loss and well aware of the task at hand. "They've shown the ability to dig their heels in," Lightning coach Jon Cooper said. "You'll get a hell of an effort from our guys." Effort wasn't the issue for the Lightning in Sunday's loss. Their decision making and puck management were substandard, with turnovers -- especially at the bluelines -- a major problem. Consider that Tampa Bay is 61-16 in their last 77 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. |
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06-15-21 | Orioles v. Indians -165 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Indians should probably be a bigger favorite at home against Baltimore. The Orioles have lost twice as many road games as they have won. Matt Harvey will toe the slab for the Orioles, and he's allowed five or more runs in four of his last five starts. His numbers against Cleveland aren't great either. Cleveland's lineup has hit a combined .494 over 28 at bats against Harvey. The Indians hand the ball to Cal Quantrill, who is still looking for his first win. His ERA of 3.21 in 20 appearances suggests he is plenty capable of earning that W here. The Orioles are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in Cleveland. |
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06-15-21 | Cubs v. Mets -141 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets are 12-5 in their past 17 games and 12-2 in their past 14 home games. They also boast a major league-best 2.72 ERA from the rotation, and since David Peterson allowed four runs in 2 2/3 innings a week ago in Baltimore, their rotation has pitched to a stellar 0.89 ERA (three earned runs, 30 1/3 innings) while facing San Diego in a three-game series before facing the Cubs. Taijuan Walker (5-2, 2.07 ERA) started New York's string of impressive starts and will take the mound today. On Wednesday in Baltimore, he allowed one run on five hits in seven innings while striking out nine -- his most since Sept. 1, 2017 when he pitched for the Arizona Diamondbacks. On April 20, he allowed three runs, two hits and six walks in 3 2/3 innings but since that rough start in Chicago he is 5-1 with a 1.72 ERA in his past eight starts. |
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06-15-21 | Pirates v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nats and Pirates rank low in many offensive categories. In fact, they are #29 and #30 in runs scored, 3.75 and 3.46 per game. Say, 3.75 + 3.46 doesn’t even equal as much as 8.5! True. But Patrick Corbin is pitching and he ought to be worth a few more runs than usual to the Pirates. Just load up the lineup with righthanded batters — anyone off the street will pretty much do — as the guy has problems getting them out, which you wouldn’t think would be the case for a pitcher the organization signed to a 6-year, $140,000,000 contract in 2018. The guy will have enough money to buy all the homes on your street then build a parking lot on it, but he can’t make a quality start, not in his last five, anyway. Righthanded batters have a Batting Average, On-Base %, Slugging % and OPS of .312, .380, .550, .931 against Corbin this season. His overall ERA and WHIP are 6.21 and 1.51. Pittsburgh’s lefty Tyler Anderson has more respectable numbers: 4.52 ERA, 1.21 WHIP. But they are far from upper echelon for a MLB starter and the Nats hit lefties okay, better than most. |
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06-14-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -5 | 104-118 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Hope you bought your ticket on the Clippers to win this series while they were down 0-2 and the odds were better. In Game 3, Tyronn Lue and staff switched back to a smaller starting lineup without a traditional center (same as in Game 1, a 3-point road loss), forcing Utah’s interior defensive monster Rudy Gobert to look around for somebody to defend on the perimeter, which allowed L.A. to attack him away from his comfort zone. Following the 26-point win in Game 3, the Clippers could have the Jazz on their heels. Utah’s do-it-all guard Donovan Mitchell entered the post-season off an ankle injury, left Game 3 with an ankle injury. Point guard Mike Conley – who averaged 17.4 ppg and 8.6 assists in Utah’s First Round series – has missed all three games of this series with a hamstring injury. The ball is in their hands a lot, and they are the two best at creating good shots for themselves on a team for which somebody else is destined to be taking a three-pointer from here, or there, or over there, or from wherever they think they have enough space. |
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06-14-21 | Rays -115 v. White Sox | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Few starters are as imposing looking as the White Sox’ ’5”, 280 Lance Lynn, or can eat as many innings as Lynn, who almost always goes 6 or 7 and whose team has won 7 of his 11 starts this season. But the Rays’ 6’8”, 225 Tyler Glasnow can challenge Lynn in both departments, having gone 7 or 8 innings in four of his last five starts. Through 13 starts and 84 IP, Glasnow has 117-26 K-BB, a 2.57 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Glasnow’s Innings Per Start and Strikeout Rate are better than Lynn’s. His team is 23-10 on the road and has won 23 of its last 28 games. |
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06-14-21 | 76ers -3 v. Hawks | 100-103 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units It’s impossible to stop real good players but containment is the key. Trae Young makes Atlanta go and if his offense can be disrupted, it can stop the Hawks from doing what they want to do on the floor. The ball stuck on the Atlanta side on Friday as they only had 15 assists to 28 for Philly. Not only did Philly’s Ben Simmons do a great job on Young in the last game, he was aggressive offensively. Ben was 7 for 11 from the floor and he can post up anybody on Atlanta except for maybe Clint Capela. If he can again slow down Young, Philly should be able to take a commanding lead in the series. Losing Danny Green, with all of his championship experience, is a blow to the Sixers but Philly has a number of players that can fill in for him. Matisse Thybulle, Shake Milton, Tyrese Maxey and Forkan Korkmaz are all capable of hitting big shots. George Hill gives Philly an edge as an experienced player and if Tobias Harris can keep on producing it will take pressure off of Joel Embiid. |
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06-14-21 | Cubs +118 v. Mets | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs are coming off a three-game sweep of the hated Cardinals to put them in a tie with Milwaukee atop the NL Central. So, is it time to send it in on the Mets, a frequent move against the series-sweeping team in their next game? Eh, well, not so fast, my friends. Can’t do that every single time. Remember ‘Spahn, Sain and pray for rain?’ The Mets have, ‘Degrom, Stroman, W alker and… Ahhhh! David Peterson!!! We need 11 runs!!’ Peterson, in his second MLB season, is the “Which Doesn’t Belong and Why” in the Mets’ rotation, with a 6.32 ERA and 1.51 WHIP after 11 starts. Peterson lasted 3 1/3 innings against the Cubs in Wrigley Field back on April 21 in a 16-4 loss. He exits a 10-3 loss in Baltimore last week in which he went 2 2/3 innings, after failing to get out of the first inning in a 7-6 loss in Arizona, a team that can’t buy a win lately. Jake Arrieta may not be Mr. No Hitter anymore, but we’re inclined to give the 12-season veteran and 2015 NL Cy Young Award winner the benefit of the doubt when teamed with the Cubs’ bullpen (2.59 ERA). |
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06-13-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs -120 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The streaking Chicago Cubs bid to complete a three-game sweep tonight when they host the reeling St. Louis Cardinals. The Cubs posted an 8-5 win over the Cardinals on Friday and a 7-2 victory the following day to improve to 23-10 at Wrigley Field. Chicago has won five of its last six games to remain tied with the Milwaukee Brewers atop the National League Central. St. Louis has lost 10 of its last 12 games to fall back to .500 for the first time since April 28. Cardinals starting pitcher Carlos Martinez (3-6, 6.21) will try to get his season back on track after allowing 15 runs in 4 2/3 innings over his last two starts. Back on May 3, Martinez threw eight scoreless innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Since then, Martinez has failed to pitch deeper than the sixth inning in any start. His ERA in his last five starts is 9.97 ERA. He is 4-5 with a 4.60 ERA in 37 career appearances (17 starts) against the Cubs. |
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06-13-21 | Angels -130 v. Diamondbacks | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Getting rid of the dead wood who goes by the name of Albert Pujols, after being free of Mike Trout and his overrated presence, has helped to produce a winning record for the Angels during this time. Everyone knows that they mostly lost with those two in the lineup every day. Guys are getting opportunities and taking advantage. Pitchers are pitching better since easily distracted pitching coach Mickey Callaway got fired. One of those guys was not Alex Cobb yesterday. He stunk for us. But the Angels won the game because the longer the game goes, the less chance Arizona has of winning it. They are now 11-18 in their home park and ask a pitcher with no real Major League cachet — 13 hits, 8 walks and 13 runs given up in 11 2/3 innings in his last three starts — to help put smiles back onto their faces after they’ve lost 26 of their last 29 games. |
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06-13-21 | Royals v. A's -189 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chris Bassitt Day has once again rolled around and although the number is higher than anyone would like it to be, we’ve lost track of how many consecutive Bassitt starts have been winners for us, including the one that was greater than a $2.00 to 1 job. Bassitt 4-hit Arizona over 7 innings in his last start. He now has an 86-18 K-BB in 81 innings, a 3.44 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. The Royals are asking a guy who wasn’t in their original starting rotation plans, who has allowed 14 hits and 10 runs in 8 1/3 innings in his last two starts — including 5 home runs — plus 4 walks, to outduel Bassitt, or at least hold things down before a bullpen duel. If Kris Bubic can do that, more power to him and the Royals. |
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06-13-21 | Nets -2 v. Bucks | 96-107 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units If Brooklyn can contain either Khris Middleton or Giannis Antetokounmpo it will go a long way toward taking a strangle-hold on this series. That pair put up 68 points combined Thursday but they got very little help and the ball stuck as the Bucks only had 12 assists. The Nets have to force Giannis to jack up shots. He is 4 for 32 in 7 post-season games so far. The Nets can play much better. After shooting 50% from the floor during the season Kyrie Irving was just 9 for 22 from the field on Thursday. Kevin Durant was a 54% shooter from the field during the season but in the last loss he was only 39% from the floor and Brooklyn only lost by 3 points. Good teams rebound from bad performances and the Nets had their lowest-scoring output of the season in the last game. Look for Joe Harris to be sky high for this game. He was only 1 for 11 from the floor and this season, Harris shot it at 51% from the field and 48% from downtown. |
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06-13-21 | Astros -135 v. Twins | 14-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Framber Valdez returns to the site of one the biggest wins of his young pitching career this afternoon when the Houston Astros face the Minnesota Twins in the rubber game of their three-game series in Minneapolis. Valdez (2-0, 1.47 ERA) was the winning pitcher in Game 1 of the 2020 American League Wild Card Series on Sept. 29 at Target Field when he replaced starter Zack Greinke and threw five innings of shutout relief in a 4-1 victory. The left-hander allowed just two hits and walked two while striking out five. Valdez is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in four career regular-season performances (one start) against Minnesota. The Twins, who are coming off a 5-2 victory on Saturday night, will counter with right-hander Michael Pineda (3-3, 3.46). Pineda is 3-4 with a 5.06 ERA in nine career starts against the Astros. |
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06-13-21 | Yankees +106 v. Phillies | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Phillies have lost four of Aaron Nola’s last four starts and he has allowed more hits than innings pitched in the last two. Since a complete-game shutout on April 18, Nola’s ERA is 4.97. His overall ERA of 4.06 and WHIP of 1.21 are both higher than last season’s 3.28 and 1.08. The Yankees’ Domingo German: 3.12 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, as the underdog backed by the better bullpen. |
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06-12-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -4.5 | 106-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If the Clippers don’t contain Donovan Mitchell here, they can pretty much kiss the season goodbye. L.A. played very limited defense on Thursday. Donovan shot the ball at over 50%, Joe Ingles was 7 for 10 from the floor and Bojan Bogdanovic and Rudy Gobert were a combined 9 for 13 from the field. Coach Lue had better emphasize to his players that they have to get the Utah guys off their favorite spots on the floor. L.A. allowed Utah to shot 55% from the floor but during the season, L.A. was fifth in the league in defensive field-goal percentage. Reggie Jackson has to keep on performing at a high level for L.A. in this series. He had 29 points on Thursday and that just takes pressure off of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Marcus Morris continues to struggle from deep but he should be pumped up here after going 0 for 5 from long-range Thursday. Kawhi, who was in foul trouble, kind of disappeared in the fourth quarter on Thursday and expect him to be ultra-energized for this one. |
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06-12-21 | Astros -105 v. Twins | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Twins starter, Berrios is 2-3 with an unsightly 6.43 ERA in five career starts against Houston. Alex Bregman is 4-for-7 with a homer against Berrios while Brantley is just 2-for-15. Astros right-hander Luis Garcia (5-3, 2.75) will be looking to win his sixth consecutive start. The 24-year-old Garcia has compiled a 1.86 ERA during the stretch while giving up five or fewer hits in each outing. He has served up just two homers in 29 innings over his past five starts after allowing six in his first 30 frames of the season. Garcia matched his career-high of eight strikeouts while beating the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday. He gave up one run, three hits and walked two. |
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06-12-21 | Angels -114 v. Diamondbacks | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Alex Cobb came off the injured list to give up 4 hits in 5 innings during a 7-1 win vs. the Twins. The Angels gave him 9 days between starts and he responded by going 7 innings and allowing only 3 hits, 0 runs in a 4-0 win at Oakland. They gave him 7 days in between that and the next start, and he went 7 innings again, allowing only 3 hits in another win. They’ve given him another 7 days before this. Hey, when something works, you stick with it, especially when it’s for a team like the Angels where nothing usually works. Speaking of teams where nothing works, the Diamondbacks have sunk to MLB’s worst winning percentage (20-44, .313). Aside from their current road losing streak of 19 games, they are 11-17 in their home park. The Angels were 18-22 when Mike Trout got hurt. They are 1 game over .500 since. He is an overrated, analytics clown-fan player whose team has habitually lost a lot when he plays. All of those people would have figured the Angels to have an Arizona-like record with Trout out. Nope. Hasn’t happened. L.A. also caught a break when pitching coach Mickey Callaway was fired, not for baseball reasons. Team ERA has dropped from 5.20 to 4.11 since he got the boot. |
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06-12-21 | Pirates v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | 4-7 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pirates have the worst Hits Per Run ratio in MLB: 2.12 hits for every run scored. In the typical outing by Milwaukee starter Corbin Burnes, the other side doesn’t get many hits. His median innings length in the last five starts is 6; the median hits allowed is 4. His ERA is 1.97, his WHIP 0.71. He has a 94-7 K-BB in 59 1/3 IP. Chad Kuhl would have to pitch the game of his life to beat him, probably, but the Brewers’ average of 6.92 hits per game is fewest in the National League and they have lost some Burnes starts because they supported him and relievers with only 0, 1, 0, 0, 4 and 1 run in those losses. In Burnes’ last two starts, they won 3-2 and 2-0. |
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06-12-21 | Padres v. Mets +121 | 1-4 | Win | 121 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Stroman (5-4, 2.41 ERA) is slated to oppose Joe Musgrove (4-5, 2.33) in a battle of right-handers. Stroman entered Friday with the 10th-best ERA in the NL while pitching at least six innings in each of his past six starts and in nine of 12 starts overall. Stroman earned the win against the Padres last Sunday when he allowed an unearned run over 6 2/3 innings in the Mets' 6-2 victory. Stroman is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in three career starts against the Padres. Musgrove is 1-3 with a 6.11 ERA in four games (three starts) against the Mets. |
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06-11-21 | Rangers v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units That SOB Kershaw gave up 8 hits and 5 runs in 6 innings against the Braves when we heaped generous praises on him and backed him in his last start. Forget about him! What a bum. He’d allowed 7 hits and 5 runs in 6 innings to the Giants before that, and he’s owned the Giants in his career. He’s probably headed for his familiar spot on the disabled list (and will no doubt pitch a no-hitter now that we’ve trashed him). Rangers starter Mike Foltynewicz has helped fuel Dodgers rallies in the past and the L.A. batters should be happy to see the ex-National Leaguer in their return home from a road trip. They’re 20-for-51 against Foltynewicz (better than .400!) with only 7 K and 9 BBs. Even Kershaw has 2 RBIs against him in 4 at-bats. |
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06-11-21 | Astros -151 v. Twins | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The long, black-bearded, gradually less-than-mediocre righthander called Matt Shoemaker is being sent back to the mound by the Twins following his 1/3 of an inning, 6-hit, 2-walk, 9-run start against the Royals a week ago, probably as Twins management collectively puts their hands together and bows their heads in solemn prayer that he manages 5 or 6 innings of 3-run ball on hard-hit line drives right at their fielders, and that some other team will be fooled into accepting him in a trade before the All-Star break. Shoemaker has been the gift that keeps giving — thus far with the ability to win only against last-place opponents — and tonight he faces the lineup with MLB’s highest team batting average, .271, which averages the MLB-high 5.42 runs per game (5.62 on the road, more than at home). His ERA is up to 7.28, his WHIP 1.58, his K-BB ratio a very low 1.6 to 1. If the Astros change from Jose Urquidy (3.76 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), we wouldn’t change from this selection. |
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06-11-21 | 76ers -1 v. Hawks | 127-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philly stepped on the Hawks right out of the blocks on Tuesday winning the first quarter by 13. Atlanta put together a little run in the second stanza but the Sixers controlled the tempo and the game in the second half. The ball stuck on Atlanta side as they only had 20 assists and the game would not have been all that close if Danilo Gallinari and Kevin Huerter didn’t combine for 41 points. It was a case of Shake, rattle and roll for Philly on Tuesday as Shake Milton lit it up off the bench and gave the Sixers the needed momentum lift. He had a solid season off the pine but was in Doc Rivers dog house until Tuesday. Trae Young proved human as he was just 1 for 7 from deep for the Hawks and one of the main reasons was the defense of Ben Simmons. Atlanta could not stop Seth Curry, Tobias Harris or Joel Embiid in the last game. That trio accounted for 83 points. Embiid is listed as questionable for this game but he has said he wants to play through his injury and manage it. |
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06-11-21 | Braves -115 v. Marlins | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves will start Charlie Morton (5-2, 4.21 ERA) against Miami's Sandy Alcantara (3-5, 3.30 ERA) in a battle of right-handers. Morton will be looking for his fourth straight win. In his past four starts, he has posted a 2.74 ERA. Historically, Morton has a winning record against the Marlins -- 7-4 with a 4.04 ERA in 14 starts. He has been even better in Miami, going 3-1 with a 3.47 ERA in four starts at Marlins Park. |
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06-11-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs -134 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cardinals starter Johan Oviedo (0-2, 5.25) is still trying to settle into his team's injury-depleted rotation. After opening his season with a scoreless 4 2/3-inning relief stint, he has posted a 6.52 ERA in five starts. Oviedo lasted just 65 pitches in his most recent start, a 5-2 loss to the Cincinnati Reds on Friday, but he didn't figure in the decision. He allowed two runs on three hits and three walks, one intentional. In two career starts against the Cubs, Oviedo is 0-1 with a 4.66 ERA. Ian Happ (2-for-3, two walks, double, triple), Javier Baez (2-for-5), Kris Bryant (1-for-3) and Willson Contreras (1-for-4, walk, two RBIs) have hit well against him. |
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06-10-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | 3-6 | Win | 108 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Vegas appeared to have discovered a hole in Colorado’s defense during its 5-1 victory in Game 4. They were held off the scoreboard until the third period in Game 5, but they’ll once again have last chance playing at home tonight. Philipp Grubauer has been steady for the Aves all season, but Colorado’s backs are also against the wall. If the Aves are trailing in the third, we could see them pull Grubauer relatively early and give the Golden Knights multiple empty-net attempts. |
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06-10-21 | Blue Jays v. White Sox +105 | 2-5 | Win | 105 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Dallas Keuchel (4-1, 4.25 ERA) of the White Sox is set to make his 13th start of the season. He has earned victories in three of his past five outings, and he pitched well his last time out despite earning a no-decision as he limited the Detroit Tigers to two runs (one earned) on five hits in six innings last Friday. Keuchel has 94 career victories, four of which have come against the Blue Jays in his career. He is 4-0 with a 4.78 ERA in six starts against Toronto while walking 15 and striking out 27 in 37 2/3 innings. The Blue Jays will counter with Hyun Jin Ryu (5-3, 3.23 ERA), who has a terrific 59-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 64 innings this season. But Ryu is hoping to bounce back from his worst outing of the season, one in which he surrendered six runs on seven hits in 5 2/3 innings in a loss to the Houston Astros last Friday. |
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06-10-21 | Yankees v. Twins OVER 11 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Michael King has appeared in eight games for the Yankees this season and New York has lost seven of them. They almost always beat the Twins so we’re not going against the Yankees based on King’s unimpressive form since debuting with 6 innings of 1-hit, shutout ball vs. Toronto on April 4. Six days ago he allowed 6 hits and 4 runs in 5 1/3 innings vs. the Red Sox. Meanwhile, before the season, the Twins acquired a couple of veterans to help them in the post-season, where they went last year. Those two vets are Matt Shoemaker and JA Happ. Shoemaker, along with Matt Harvey, is one of our happy pet go-againsts. Happ? 5.61 ERA, the Twins have lost 7 of his 11 starts. The team probably won’t be going to the post-season. Although this is Happ’s World Series Game 7 — the Yankees having allegedly ‘mistreated’ him towards the end of his tenure there — his last five starts have had final scores of 13-8, 16-4, 8-5, 6-5 and 6-5, with Happ responsible for giving up 26 of the runs scored in those five games. The Twins’ bullpen, which we like to refer to as a useful tool for anti-Twins and Over players, has allowed 7 runs in 9 innings so far in this series. The number 11 is quite large for a non- Coors Field game but it’s there for a reason — like, hopefully to not be high enough. |
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06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 234 | 83-86 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the two games at Brooklyn both stayed below the total, a change of venue should bring more scoring. The Bucks average 120.8 ppg on this floor. Needless to say, they're going to score more than they did in Game 2. Slowing down the Nets is a different matter; Brooklyn averages 119.9 ppg on the road. The last meeting between these teams, here at Milwaukee, produced 242 points. I won't be surprised if this one also cracks the 240 mark. |
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06-10-21 | Astros +103 v. Red Sox | 8-12 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Astros whacked Eduardo Rodriguez around in Houston ten days ago — 7 hits, 2 walks, 6 runs in 4 2/3 innings. He recovered a little bit against the Yankees five days later but the Yankees often specialize in hitting air with their bats (hopefully not tonight, see below). With their performances against Rodriguez on May 31, Houston batters Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa now have Batting Averages Against him of .400, .333, .667. Zack Greinke didn’t pitch against the Astros in their series in Houston, won 3-1 by Houston, who is now 2-0 in this series. Although the Red Sox are a winning team attempting to avoid being swept in a Fenway Park series, the guy starting against them has gone 8, 8 and 9 innings in three of his last four starts, can help put his team into a first-place tie with Oakland in the AL West if they win (or stay 1 game behind if Oakland wins later tonight), and has had one extra day of rest since going the distance in the Astros’ 13-1 win at Toronto on June 4, where he threw 102 pitches. |
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06-10-21 | Braves v. Phillies -132 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Phillies will now look to capture the three-game set when they host the Braves on this afternoon. Atlanta took the opener 9-5 on Tuesday. Philadelphia will send Zack Wheeler to the mound for his 13th start of the season Thursday, and he is enjoying a strong campaign. Wheeler (4-3, 2.51 ERA) has recorded 100 strikeouts in 82 1/3 innings in 2021. In his past six starts, he is 2-1 with a 1.65 ERA. The Braves hope Ian Anderson (4-3, 3.64 ERA) can be the guy to put them back on track after the walk-off defeat ended their three-game winning streak. However, Anderson has allowed eight runs in a combined 8 1/3 innings while losing each of his past two starts. In three career starts against the Phillies, Anderson is 0-0 with a 4.41 ERA. |
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06-10-21 | Brewers -113 v. Reds | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units One of the hottest pitchers on one of the hottest teams in baseball will try to lead his team to another series victory in the rubber game of a three-game series when the Milwaukee Brewers take on the host Cincinnati Reds on this afternoon. In his last start, the Brewers' Freddy Peralta (6-1, 2.25 ERA) took a no-hitter into the eighth inning at home against Arizona on Friday before yielding a hit to Nick Ahmed with one out. The Brewers closed out a combined one-hitter in a 5-1 win on Peralta's 25th birthday. Pitching like a team ace, Milwaukee is 9-3 in Peralta's 12 starts, including six quality starts. Opponents are batting just .133 (29-for-218, six home runs) with 92 strikeouts in 64 innings. Peralta fell just an out short of qualifying for the win in a 9-4 victory over the Reds on May 23 in Cincinnati. Lifetime, Peralta is 2-1 with a 3.62 ERA in 11 appearances (five starts) against Cincinnati. |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets +5.5 v. Suns | 98-123 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Denver was energized for only 24 minutes in Game One. It seemed like they forgot how to play in the second half. Phoenix was just more aggressive. The Suns were a plus 14 in free-throw attempts and they shot 85% from the charity stripe. Not only does that represent free points, but it allows the defense to get back, settle and defend. Deandre Ayton did not shrink from the moment and he had an efficient game compared to Denver’s Nikola Jokic. Denver just looked way too casual and they looked tired to boot. The Nuggets have to play better defense. They gave up 110 a night this season but they rewarded Phoenix with 122 points on Monday. Jokic only had 3 assists and during the season he was the best passing center in the league averaging 8 dimes a night and ranking 6th overall. Look for Monte Morris to be pumped up for this one. After playing lights out against Portland, Morris was just 1 for 10 from the floor on Monday |
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06-09-21 | Blue Jays v. White Sox -149 | 6-2 | Loss | -149 | 1 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox won last night's series opener, the 8th victory in their last 11 (+$340). They are now 15-4 in night games at home (+$855) and they have ace right-hander Lance Lynn on the mound this evening (1.38 ERA in 10 starts). He's led Chicago to wins in 6 of 7 appearances at Guaranteed Rate Field (+$445). Toronto has good numbers vs. NL teams, but they have lost money vs. AL teams (-$585), so expect we'll lay the price on the home favorite. |
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06-09-21 | Mariners v. Tigers -129 | 9-6 | Loss | -129 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Big Cat, Casey Mize (wait, that was Johnny!), has made seven straight quality starts for the Tigers. He threw 28 innings for them last season as a rookie and didn’t accomplish much, but after 64 IP this season — still a rookie — has a 3.34 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He beat the Mariners 4-1 in Seattle on May 17, with 7 2/3 innings of 3-hit, 1-run ball. The Mariners have the fewest hits of all the teams in Major League Baseball. They average only 6.6 per game and a mere 5.87 hits per game on the road. Their starter, Chris Flexen, has a 2.67 ERA in home starts but 8.10 ERA on the road. The reasons don’t jump out at anyone but it is what it is, is it not? Opponents are hitting .372 against Flexen away from Mariners Field, or whatever the heck they call their home ballpark in 2021. PNC, maybe? No, that’s not it. Maybe it’s T-Mobile. Ah, who cares? |
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06-09-21 | Nationals v. Rays OVER 7.5 | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 2 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Patrick ‘I Have a World Series Ring and Millions Upon Millions of Dollars As I Give Up Zillions of Hits and Runs Towards the End of My Ridiculous Contract’ Corbin is pitching for the Nationals against an opponent that has been hitting well enough to win 20 of its last 24 games. Corbin has faced a few of the Rays hitters when they played for other teams, but never when they were all part of these Rays and he’s never pitched in this ballpark. Hopefully, he’ll be wishing he never did by the time tonight’s stint is over. Since he 5-hit, 1-runned the Phillies on May 13, Cobin has allowed 29 hits and 15 runs in 20 innings through 4 starts, with only 8 Ks. Shane McClanahan has been okay for Tampa but rookies are rookies and the Nats do okay against left-handed pitching, better than vs. righties. |
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06-09-21 | Mets -127 v. Orioles | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Mets’ “C” lineup chased Matt Harvey at Citi Field after 4 1/3 innings on May 12, with 8 hits and 7 runs. They had him on the ropes as early as the second inning. New York’s lineup isn’t at full strength just yet but it’s at least back to “B” level. The Orioles wised up with Harvey in his last start, allowing him to pitch only 3 innings so that he could escape with only giving up 2 hits and 1 run. They were playing the seriously losing Twins that night and he was matched against Randy Dobnak (6.19 ERA, 1.44 WHIP), so they beat us. We want our money back. Tonight, as Harvey’s Exit Tour of the Major Leagues continues, he is matched against an opponent with a winning record who starts Taijuan Walker (2.17 ERA, 1.06 WHIP). The Orioles who have faced Walker when he was with Seattle have 31 plate appearances with only 6 hits, 1 for extra bases. |
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06-08-21 | Clippers +4 v. Jazz | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This first game of the Western Conference semis looms a case of rust vs. rest. It’s hard to gauge which way that issue will play out but L.A. should be the sharper of the 2 teams here at least early on. The Clippers went small for Dallas and it finally paid off as they took a Game Seven on Sunday behind good games from Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. The Clips bench also outscored the Dallas reserves 27 to 6. Utah won 2 of the 3 match-ups with L.A. this season. Outside of the one blowout Jazz win when L.A. was missing their top two players, Nic Batum and Luke Kennard, the other two games were decided by an average of 5 points. Mike Conley, who is dealing with a hammy, had 33 in the Utah win in on New Year’s Day but the Clips came out flat in that game and George was only 6 for 22 from the floor. In the Clippers win on Feb. 19, Donovan Mitchell led all scorers with 35 but Kawhi was in foul trouble and Reggie Jackson, who has replaced Patrick Beverley in the Clippers starting line-up, only had 5 points. In the last 6 games, Reggie has scored 15, 16, 15, 20, 25 and 15 points. L.A. will have to devise a way to guard the pick and roll with Rudy Gobert. If they can neutralize his effectiveness, and find a way to get to the rack quickly before Rudy can get set up, it will go a long way to success in this series. |
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06-08-21 | Diamondbacks v. A's -211 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Part of our routine is to eagerly await Chris Bassitt’s turn and check the odds, which have been underdog, small favorite, or at most mid-range favorite during his current run of five straight A’s/Bassitt winners for us. Tonight, he is a prohibitive favorite, at a number we rarely accept. We’ve gone >$2.00 one time this season, when it was against Matt Harvey and Baltimore with the White Sox. It worked. When it doesn’t, you feel bad. Hopefully it works tonight. The D-Backs have lost 17 consecutive road games. It’s pretty much the kiss of death to embrace our winning streaking pitcher against this uber-losing streaking visitor, whose relatively lame attempt at countering and snapping their run of road futility includes starting a guy who has allowed 11 hits (4 home runs), 5 walks and 9 runs in his two starts, which totaled 8 2/3 innings. But here we go. |
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06-08-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche -143 | 3-2 | Loss | -143 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ball Arena has been good to the Avalanche. They went 16-0-1 at home to end the regular season and have won their first four playoff games there, including a 3-2 overtime win in Game 2 against Vegas. Colorado went an NHL-best 22-4-2 at home during the regular season. Consider also that the Golden Knights are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in Colorado. While the favorite is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings and the home team is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. |
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06-08-21 | Giants v. Rangers +128 | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers haven’t won a road game since Moby Dick was a minnow but tonight they’re playing home. They’ve managed to do okay when the other team starts a left-handed pitcher, although we’re not sure the correlation is exactly, “Rangers are great vs. lefties!” In fact, they got only 1 run and 4 hits against the Giants’ lefty Alex Wood in a 3-1 loss at San Francisco on May 10. But it’s a long season and pitching form doesn’t always hold from month to month. Wood had been doing great, but in his last start of May and first start of June he gave up a total of 11 runs, almost twice as many as he’d allowed in his five previous starts combined. The Giants’ lineup to be faced by Rangers’ righty Jordan Lyles will suddenly be without third baseman Evan Longoria, who leads the visitor with a .280 batting average and 45 hits, and is second with 30 RBIs. A Rangers team 15 games below .500 is nevertheless 6-6 when Lyles starts, 3-0 last three in this park against the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox. |
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06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -6 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Doc Rivers, hey, way to have that defensive game plan ready for Game 1. Great job, Doc! Wave the, "Oh, woe is us with Joel Embiid possibly unable to play!" flag of distraction in hopes that Atlanta gets suckered by it, Embiid plays and scores 39 points, but the other side gets 74 points in the first half on your home floor. Oh, sorry, we forgot, it’s not Doc coaching the team for real; it’s his assistants. Rivers is the world’s highest paid cheerleader. Therefore, Sam Cassell, Dave Joerger, Dan Burke and Popeye Jones have been huddled in a room since Saturday night, blaming each other for not sticking Ben Simmons on Trae Young much in Game 1, and allowing Danny Green to be de-pantsed repeatedly by the Hawks’ motorman guard. Those guys now know who Bogdan Bogdanovich is. The Hawks’ 6’6" shooting guard – who missed all three regular-season games against the 76ers – scored 21 points in Game 1, including 5-for-12 on three-pointers. The good news for Philly is this: every starter had a positive plus-minus for the game, while every Hawks starter except Bogdanovich had a negative plus-minus. Also, if Atlanta’s underrated defender DeAndre Hunter is out again with his knee problem, expect Philly to score in the range of what they got in Game 1, which was 124. Also consider that number 1 seeds in Game Two in the NBA playoffs, coming off a SU favorite loss in Game One, are 7-1 ATS. |
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06-08-21 | Rockies v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 2-6 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Marlins manager Don Mattingly pulled a fast one on us yesterday at about 1:30 pm, ET, switching from Pablo Lopez to a bullpen night in Fenway Park (losing the game, 5-3). There’s nothing we can do about managers jerking people and pitchers around after prior arrangements have been announced, except to have that general guideline in place. Obviously, in switching from Boston to Colorado, Lopez’ task becomes easier — at least in theory. The Red Sox average 5.17 runs per game in Fenway. Away from Coors Field, the Rockies average less than half that, 2.42 runs per game. Antonio Senzatela has reverse-Rockies numbers: 3.83 ERA in Coors Field, 7.15 ERA on the road. Makes no sense. But he’s had 8 home starts and only 3 on the road, so the road sample is too small to be a true barometer. Hopefully he “Senza” message to that effect tonight. |
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06-08-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 35 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Unit NHL Total of the Month Consider that the over is 5-2 in Lightning last 7 games as a favorite and 12-5 in Lightning last 17 games as a road favorite. While the over is 7-3-2 in Hurricanes last 12 games a home underdog. |
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06-07-21 | Nuggets +5 v. Suns | 105-122 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Devin Booker was not in uniform in the Suns loss to the Nuggets on Jan. 23. Denver won 2 of the 3 games these clubs played this season including a double overtime thriller when the Nuggets prevailed by 7 points. Their 3 games were decided by an average of 5 points and two games went into extra minutes. Chris Paul’s grit was there for all to see against the Lakers and he always makes sure Phoenix gets good shots. Booker is capable of going off on any given night and this series could just come down to the good guard play of Phoenix against the all-around stellar play of Nikola Jokic. Michael Porter Jr. has stepped up for Denver as he averaged 19 points in the first round and shot it at 42% from deep. Denver is undermanned without Jamal Murray, Will Barton and P.J. Dozier but the Nuggets picked up a quality defensive guy in Aaron Gordon and there is hope for Phoenix that Barton will be back for this series. Monte Morris was a revelation off the bench against Portland and if he continues to produce, Denver will be much better off. Portland’s elite superstar Damian Lillard had nothing but good things to say about Jokic after the Blazers were eliminated, Lillard: “He’s (Jokic) making threes, scoring on the block, scoring on the free-throw line, getting to the free-throw line, he’s making other guys better. He’s everything for them and I think if it was any year where a guy like him and what he does for that team, could lead a team to a championship, it would be this year because of how open it is.” |
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06-07-21 | Bucks +1 v. Nets | 86-125 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Bucks are 13-6-1 ATS in Game Two of a playoff series, including 7-2-1 ATS as a dog. The Brooklyn Nets are 2-11 SU and 4-8-1 ATS in Game Two of a playoff series, including 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS when coming off a win. |
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06-07-21 | Islanders +1.5 v. Bruins | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston's top line of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak also were held without a goal in Game 4. Marchand had an assist and Pastrnak, who whiffed on a wide-open net late in the first period, also logged a helper. Bergeron, who was named a finalist for the Selke Trophy for the 10th straight season on Sunday, did not record a point. Adding insult to injury, Bruins center David Krejci was fined $5,000 on Sunday for slashing Barzal -- which the Islanders' center called "a tad vicious" -- midway through Saturday's second period. Krejci had scored Boston's lone goal earlier in the period. Defensemen Brandon Carlo (head injury) and Kevan Miller (upper body) will be game-day decisions for the Bruins after both missed Game 4. Carlo was injured on a hit in Game 3 and did not skate Sunday at the Bruins' practice. Consider that New York is 19-8 in their last 27 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. |
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06-07-21 | Marlins +133 v. Red Sox | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s the ol’ “We Swept the archrival, American League East rival Yankees over the Weekend at Yankee Stadium, now we come home to lose an Interleague game to the Marlins” situation. Although it’s not football with the traditional letdowns, this is one of the least important of the 162 games on the Red Sox regular season schedule. For one thing, aside from being Interleague it’s a stand-alone single game, a rainout makeup from earlier in the season. They will host the fellow contender Houston Astros, then fellow contender division-rival Toronto Blue Jays, in the next seven games after this, all of them here at Fenway. They pretty much exhausted the “A” group to beat the Yankees, including five relievers last night in a 3:49 game that preceded a flight home and 5:10 pm, ET first pitch today. The urgency check-mark is stronger for Miami, who ended a nine game losing streak yesterday. Corey Dickerson, Sandy Leon, Starling Marte and Sierra Magneuris are 4-for-7, 2-for-4, 2-for-6 and 2-for-3 against Nick Pivetta in their very limited exposure to him. Not bad, eh? Pivetta is the only Red Sox player to have hit against Miami’s Pablo Lopez, who enters in fine form with a 2.85 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 68-19 K-BB in 67 innings pitched. |
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06-06-21 | Jets +115 v. Canadiens | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The road team has won 5 of the last 7 meetings between these clubs. The Jets have won 2 of the last 3 at Montreal. Those victories came by a combined score of 9 to 2. Needing to get back into this series after dropping back to back tight games on home ice, I just do not see Winnipeg being denied here. The Jets want to get this series to a Game 6 when Scheifele will be back from his suspension. Strong determined effort from a hungry road dog here. I'll grab the solid plus money price. |
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06-06-21 | Mets +145 v. Padres | 6-2 | Win | 145 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets got on the board against the Padres behind a dominant Jacob deGrom last evening, and they have another strong right-hander set to pitch today as they look to escape Petco Park with a split. Marcus Stroman checks in with a 2.66 ERA in his 11 starts, and he's backed by a team that is now 9-4 (+$415) vs. righties in day games. New York has won 7 of its last 10 (+$380) so we'll grab the generous underdog price on the visitor in this one. |
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06-06-21 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | 111-126 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mavericks had us right where they wanted us in Friday night’s Game 6: Up 4, home floor, taking 3, large home crowd behind them, having re-gained the lead following a slight halftime deficit. But they couldn’t close the deal. After gagging it away in their first closeout try, people now expect them to take a mulligan on the road and knock it straight down the fairway, onto the green in regulation, then get up and down while the Clippers don’t. Good luck w/that. If we don’t win, we hope it pushes and if we can’t win and it doesn’t push, we hope they win. The Clippers, despite failing to reach their per game scoring average of 114 points in eight of nine games with Dallas this season, have found ways to win three road games in this series. Whatever the Mavericks have done defensively to limit the Clips – or maybe it’s the Clips limiting themselves – has worked to a degree but has nevertheless left the well-coached club in the usually unenviable position of needing to win a Game 7 on the road. Naturally, because every other game in this series has been won by the road team, their particular task doesn’t seem daunting on the surface. But as we noted on Friday, the Mavericks have had their own troubles scoring against the Clippers, reaching their scoring average only three times in the nine games between the teams this season -- something they haven’t done in this series since they won Game 2, after which we noted that the Clippers had put themselves in the reverse-of-good position of needing to win four of the next five games, three of them on the road, in order to advance. |
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06-06-21 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 211 | 111-126 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Game 7s are typically possession-by-possession affairs with more physicality allowed by the refs, fewer fouls called, more shots challenged… and these two teams have already failed to reach their offensive averages eight of nine (L.A) and six of nine (Dallas) times against each other this season. Only one way for us to see this one. |
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06-06-21 | A's v. Rockies -110 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Gotta get up off the mat and go with the home team using its best pitcher in an attempt to avoid being swept in a series in their own ballpark. The opponent sends a virtual rookie to the mound in the fifth start of his Major League career, first in Coors Field, which is a very different environment than James Kapreilan’s home park, and also very different from the “pitcher’s ballpark” in Seattle, where he just got roughed up for 5 hits and 4 runs in a loss to the Mariners. He has a nice-looking 2.95 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, but it’s early and he still has some professional dues to pay, the initiation to Coors Field that every young pitcher must endure before becoming a man. Just ask German Marquez, who had 4.59 and 4.74 Coors Field ERAs in his first two seasons as a Colorado starter, but today is coming off 7 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball, and 7 innings of 4-hit shutout ball in his last two home starts. |
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06-06-21 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers are challenging the Seattle Mariners for fewest hits per game. They average a mere 6.9 hits per game, second-fewest in MLB. The Diamondbacks have hit poorly enough, for a long enough period of time, to have lost 18 of their last 20 games. They will attempt to solve Corbin Burnes, who has a 2.24 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, with 81-7 K-BB in 52 1/3 innings. Good luck to them, for they will need it. |
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06-06-21 | Astros +106 v. Blue Jays | 6-3 | Win | 106 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Steven Matz beat the Yankees near his hometown two starts ago with a 10-0 K-BB game and then, naturally, gave up 4 runs in 5 innings to the Indians in his next start. He’s peaked! Well, maybe not, but the pumped up outing in Yankee Stadium will be tough to duplicate for a guy who’s been pitching better, for a longer stretch, than he ever did with the Mets. The Blue Jays opened this season with four straight wins in Matz starts but are merely 2-5 since. Today it’s the Astros who start a guy they’ve won four in a row behind. Luis Garcia is off quality-start wins against Boston and the Dodgers in which he had 6-1 and 7-1 K-BBs, didn’t allow a home run. And this has come after they’d lost his first six starts! Long season, man. Ebbs and flows. Through it all, his 2.89 ERA and 1.02 WHIP look pretty good and his teammates are hitting .281 against lefthanded pitchers (Matz being a lefty), highest such average in MLB. |
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06-06-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -3.5 | 128-124 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The major question here obviously is Joel Embiid’s health. If he can’t go, the Sixers are vulnerable but not dead. Philly won the season series two games to one. Atlanta is coming off an impressive series against the Knicks. In the Hawks only loss against New York, they were down one point with 12 minutes to go and lost the last quarter by 8 and the game by 9. Trae Young was tremendous during the series and Clint Capela backed up his brash talk. In Philly’s lone loss to Atlanta this season in January, they were missing several players because of health and safety protocols and Ben Simmons was out with a knee injury. Philly beat this team in back-to-back games in Philly in April by a combined 66 points. Young didn’t play in one of those Philly wins and in the other Sixers success Young had 32 points but the Hawks had twice as many turnovers than the Sixers. Philly has a much deeper club than Atlanta. If Embiid can’t go, Coach Rivers can roll out Dwight Howard or go small. In one span from mid-March to April 1 Philly won 7 of 10 games without Joel and the three losses during this period were against two teams that won in the first round of the playoffs and the Clippers, who host Dallas in a Game Seven today. |
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06-05-21 | Mets -102 v. Padres | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Padres prevailed over the Mets again last night but they only managed two runs in victory, and tonight they'll face the premier pitcher in MLB. Jacob deGrom checks in with a stellar 0.71 ERA in his eight starts. San Diego is in the red vs. right-handers (-$215 overall) and they are only 5-5 in their last 10. The Mets are 21-15 vs. righties in 2021 (+$215) so we'll lay the short price on the visitor this evening at Petco Park. |
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06-05-21 | A's v. Rockies +117 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Results for the first-place Oakland A’s in the last five starts made by left-hander Cole Irvin: L, L, L, L, L. He’s allowed 5, 4, 4 runs in the last three, isn’t a big strikeout pitcher, and must now give it a go in Coors Field, where scoreboard operators often suffer from fatigue. The Rockies… they get shut out in doubleheaders on the road, then come home to score 10 runs in games… or, give up 10 or somewhere in that neighborhood. But they are 19-13 home, so they’ve tended to out-score the other sides within their friendly confines. The Rockies’ home-road split in scoring runs is 5.94 per game home (round that up to 6) and 2.42 on the road. Quite a difference, eh? They tend to hit lefties better than righties. If their own lefty, Kyle Freeland, does as well as we think he can, there is always the Rockies’ bullpen to help the score approach and exceed the necessary number while making things more interesting than they need to be in victory. |
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06-05-21 | A's v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Results for the first-place Oakland A’s in the last five starts made by left-hander Cole Irvin: L, L, L, L, L. He’s allowed 5, 4, 4 runs in the last three, isn’t a big strikeout pitcher, and must now give it a go in Coors Field, where scoreboard operators often suffer from fatigue. The Rockies… they get shut out in doubleheaders on the road, then come home to score 10 runs in games… or, give up 10 or somewhere in that neighborhood. But they are 19-13 home, so they’ve tended to out-score the other sides within their friendly confines. The Rockies’ home-road split in scoring runs is 5.94 per game home (round that up to 6) and 2.42 on the road. Quite a difference, eh? They tend to hit lefties better than righties. If their own lefty, Kyle Freeland, does as well as we think he can, there is always the Rockies’ bullpen to help the score approach and exceed the necessary number while making things more interesting than they need to be in victory. |
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06-05-21 | Dodgers -120 v. Braves | 4-6 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Here’s a kiss of death “stat” if there ever was one, courtesy of the Associated Press, a mostly useless media outlet: “LA ace Clayton Kershaw is unbeaten in 11 career regular season starts against the Braves, 5-0 with a 1.78 ERA.” Send it in on the Braves and Charlie Morton, right? Well, hopefully not. Kershaw is a very good pitcher at much lower odds than usual, on a winning team, against an opponent three games under .500. Kershaw is also coming off a bad start against the Giants, and gave the Braves some hope in the post-season last year when Atlanta beat him 10-2 in their playoff series. Naturally, the Associated Press left that game off Kershaw’s “record” against the Braves because it didn’t fit their “unbeaten in career” story line. That’s what the media does. Anyway, enough with the American cultural lesson. Given that an ace pitcher had a bad game in this ballpark the last time he was here, and a bad game in his last outing, we’ll expect a bounce-back. Dodgers’ pen > Braves’ pen. |
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06-05-21 | Cubs v. Giants OVER 7.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The wind is still blowing out to left-center field at 12 mph and it’s still humid in San Francisco. Carry, baseball, carry. We called for home runs last night and the Giants hit four of them. Alrighty, then. Last night’s Over winner was 8-5 and we’ll take that again. Or, 5-3 will be fine. The Cubs expect Kohl Stewart to pitch as well as he did last week when they called him up from the minors for his first MLB start since 2019 (5 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball). We don’t. The Giants used Scott Kazmir and five relievers after his 2 innings last night. Kevin Gausman is pitching fine this season but perhaps a little too fine lately: 0 earned runs allowed in his last three starts. He had a 6 IP, 2H, 0 R outing vs. the Dodgers last time out but the bullpen allowed 4 runs in 3 innings after he left. Cubs who have faced Gausman have combined for a .541 Slugging Percentage and .899 OPS against him. |
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06-04-21 | Mets +170 v. Padres | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Mets have some bats back in the lineup who were out for a while. Their long string of games scoring 4 runs or fewer came to an end as they returned. They’ve scored 13, 6, 5, 7 and 3 in their last five games, which represents drastic improvement. Tonight’s starter, Joey Lucchesi, cannot exert any New York-based Lucchese crime family influence over the outcome because that’s not his family. However, he was a Padre for three seasons until they traded him to the Mets in the offseason, when then the organization got all, “We gotta go out and get elite lefty Blake Snell, who won a Cy Young Award and pitched in the World Series! We don’t need this lefty Lucchesi!” San Diego, with a 35-23 record and Run Differential of +76, nevertheless has lost four of Snell’s last five starts, beating only road-inept Colorado at home in that span. San Diego is only 4-7 overall in Snell’s starts for them. It’s more like Blake Smell, with a 5.55 ERA and 1.60 WHIP, right? So, this is Lucchesi’s big night. He pitched only 5 innings for the Padres in 2020 but in his last full season in their rotation, 2019, he had a 2.56 ERA in 12 starts at Petco Park, where opposing batters hit only .183 against him. |
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06-04-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Once again, I feel that selection offers value. While both teams can score, they're also each extremely stingy. In fact, both teams are allowing an average of 2.3 goals per game. That's tied for the best record in the NHL, in that category. The Avs are allowing a paltry 1.8 goals per game during the playoffs. Factoring in the Game 2 result, the 'under' is now 4-1-1 the past six times that the Knights were trailing in a playoff series. Consider the Under 5.5. |
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06-04-21 | Clippers v. Mavs +3 | 104-97 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Watching these teams go at it on Wednesday, you kind of got the feeling that the Clippers think they are better than they are in reality. L.A. came out flat when they were outscored by 7 in the opening quarter and they came out flat in the third quarter. Kawhi Leonard had the rare off shooting night and he and Paul George were only 4 for 14, or 29% from beyond the arc. Each game of this series has been won by the road team, a basketball rarity. It’s the third playoff series in history, and the first since 1995, in which the road team has won the first 5 games. In 1995, Houston was facing San Antonio and in that pivotal 6th game in Houston the Rockets beat the Spurs at home behind 39 points and 17 rebounds from Hakeem Olajuwon. L.A. has had no answer for Luca Doncic. Tim Hardaway Jr. hit some timely shots to thwart the Clippers fourth-quarter rally on Wednesday. Luca not only had 42 points, but he had 14 assists, 8 boards and a theft. Boban Marjanovic gave L.A. something else to worry about and he’s a frustrating player to go against because he is 7-foot, 4-inches, and barely has to jump to secure a rebound. The Dallas guy that got lost in the shuffle Wednesday was Dorian Finney-Smith. Dorian played 40 minutes, he only had 8 points and one block but he had 5 sneaky steals. Dallas will no doubt remember that they were embarrassed the last time L.A. was in Texas and with a crowd of nearly 18,000, this could be the time for the Mavericks to take that next step. |
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06-04-21 | Twins v. Royals -117 | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The long, black-bearded mediocrity called Matt Shoemaker, who basically only beats the Tigers but also managed to beat the Orioles — another team duking it out for last-place in its division — starts for the American League Central division’s last-place Twins. The Royals are 6 games better than the Tigers, about 13 games better than Baltimore, and they just beat Shoemaker 6-3 in Minnesota on Sunday, when he gave the home fans and backers 4 1/3 innings of 6-hit, 5-run ball for their money when matched against tonight’s Royals starter, Brad Keller. Coming off a great 2020, Keller had an atrocious April. But he improved in May and after 11 starts, has a 5-4 Won-Loss record. KC has won his last four starts. His overall ERA and WHIP of 5.68 and 1.74 are not pretty but the bad April is factored in there, when his ERA was 9.00. |
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06-04-21 | Nationals v. Phillies UNDER 7 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We won a 2-0 Under game in Max Scherzer’s most recent start, when matched against Brewers’ surging ace righthander Brandon Woodruff, who shut out Scherzer’s light-hitting teammates. Phillies’ righty Zack Wheeler is in as good a groove as Woodruff was coming into that game. His median game length in his last seven starts is 7 innings. His K-BB for the month of May was 57-5. His ERA of 2.52 and WHIP of 0.93 for the season speak for themselves. Scherzer has a mere 4-4 W-L record despite a better ERA and WHIP than Wheeler: 2.34 and 0.82. That’s because the Nationals score only 3.87 runs per game — which includes games against guys who aren’t as good as Woodruff, or Wheeler — and still rank #29 in Hits per Run (2.14). |
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06-02-21 | Golden Knights +1.5 v. Avalanche | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Going against the Avs may seem like a daunting proposition. Indeed, they're playing very well right now. The Knights are a much better team than we saw in Game 1 though and they're typically at their best off a game like that. They're 29-14 (+11.4) vs. the moneyline the past couple of seasons, after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. That includes a 10-3 mark in that situation this season. Here, we're not even asking them to win. Simply to hang within a goal. Note that prior to the Game 1 beatdown, two of the three previous meetings were decided by a single goal. Another close one won't surprise. |
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06-02-21 | Mavs +7.5 v. Clippers | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Ah, you probably thought that when the Clippers showed up in Dallas trailing |
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06-02-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -9.5 | 110-126 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Memphis deserves respect despite the fact they are down 3 to 1 in this series. As the youngest team in the league, they compete like they have been doing it for years. Even though Ja Morant and Dillion Brooks had off shooting nights, Memphis went on a 12 to 2 run to start the fourth quarter to be down only 2 points with 5 and a half minutes to play in the last game. Outside shooting killed the Grizzlies Monday. The Memphis starters were just 4 for 21 from deep while the Utah starters were 11 for 21 from beyond the arc. Utah was more aggressive going to the rim on Monday hitting on 25 of 28 free throws. Jordan Clarkson showed why he is the Sixth Man of the Year as he was 8 for 18 from the floor. Utah wants to erase the memory of blowing a 3-1 lead in the bubble last year. Utah’s Mike Conley has a long memory, Conley: “We obviously remember that feeling that we had last season, and it’s not something we want to experience again.” |
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06-02-21 | Marlins v. Blue Jays -155 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units You don’t want to overreact after just one MLB start, but before the rest of the sporting world discovers Blue Jays rookie Alek Manoah, maybe we should be on him at relatively reasonable numbers. Debuting him in Yankee Stadium against the Yankees (well, who else would they be facing in that ballpark? Duh!) was certainly a sign of confidence in the kid and he did not disappoint |
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06-02-21 | Twins -135 v. Orioles | 3-6 | Loss | -135 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles snapped a 14-game losing streak last night, in which the team also ended a 16-game losing streak against the Twins. But with Matt Harvey starting for them tonight, they should revert to typical form and avoid a winning streak, something they haven’t had since they won three in a row April 29-May 1. Harvey’s Exit Tour of the Major Leagues is unique in the sense that as a starter, he gives cameo performances, pitching 1/3 of a game, usually less than half, sometimes as little as 1 2/3 innings. He has allowed 5, 6, 6, 7, 4 runs in his last five starts, all in less than 5 innings of work, on 5, 9, 7, 8 and 4 hits. Baltimore has lost all five games. Yet he keeps coming back for more abuse, imagining that there might be an opposing lineup within MLB that he can get through. He can dream, can’t he? |
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06-02-21 | Rays +116 v. Yankees | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees pulled out an 11th inning victory last night, but their offense woes continued, as they managed a mere six hits in 11 innings. The surging Rays have won 16 of their last 18 (+$1100 overall in 2021) and they have a solid left-hander in Shane McClanahan, who has been effective in his six starts (+$415), with a 0.90 ERA in his last two). New York averages just 3.5 runs per game vs. lefties (-$595), so take the the visiting underdog in the Bronx this evening. |
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06-01-21 | A's -147 v. Mariners | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’ve waited another five days for Chris Bassitt to come back to us, and will ya’ look at that, here he is. It would be just our bad luck (for example, Jack Flaherty got injured and left with a 3-2 lead last night) for the guy to bounce down from his complete-game, 2-hit shutout of the Angels for us last Thursday. But Bassitt has won four in a row for us and is facing batters who, collectively, have hit .188 against him with a measly .211 Slugging Percentage. The Mariners have a -42 Run Differential and average only 6.42 hits per game, fewest in MLB. Only the Mets have more guys unavailable due to injury than the Mariners, and their starter, Marco Gonzales, isn’t expected to go more than 3 or 4 innings making his first start off the injured list after not pitching in a game for five weeks. |
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06-01-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets -2 | Top | 140-147 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day Despite a poor shooting night from Damian Lillard, Portland crushed Denver on Saturday. One of the keys to playing well against Portland is to contain their starting guards but Denver allowed the Blazers Norman Powell to go off for a career-high 29 points. That kind of defense has to be addressed. Austin Rivers came back to earth on Saturday and he figured to do just that considering he was sitting on his couch a few weeks ago going through the want ads. Three of the Denver starters Friday were just 8 for 25 from the floor and Michael Porter Jr. took only 3 shots. In the last 2 games Nikola Jokic totaled 6 assists. During the season, Jokic was 6th in the league in that category. Bam Adebayo was the only other center in the top 30. Last season, Denver had 2 successful Game 5s before losing to the Lakers in the Conference Finals. First off, they were down 3 to 1 to Utah and came back to the Mile High and won Game 5 by 10 points. In the next series, they were down 3 to 1 to the Clippers and then won the Game 5 in L.A. and eventually made it three in a row to win the series against the Clips. Coach Malone: “Maybe this could be a wake-up call for our starting group, just to play harder. Good things happen when you play hard, and we didn’t play anywhere close to hard enough tonight.” |
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06-01-21 | Red Sox +125 v. Astros | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Fickle fellows, aren’t we? All over the Astros against the Red Sox last night for a win, but switching to Boston tonight despite Luis Garcia’s recent mighty fine outings for Houston, which included 6 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball against the formidable Dodgers in his last start. But he threw 100 pitches, his most of the season, which would make it the most Garcia has ever thrown in a Major League game because he didn’t exceed 86 pitches in any outing as a rookie last year. The Astros faced an obviously down trending lefty last night when they pounded Eduardo Rodriguez. Relatively steady righthander Garrett Richards hasn’t allowed a home run in his last three starts, only 3 this season, and is better leverage. |
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06-01-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes -114 | 2-1 | Loss | -114 | 1 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The champs are playing well and will be tough to beat. Still, the Canes have enjoyed an outstanding season and they're not about to go down without a fight. Carolina is a healthy 30-17 (+9.6) the past couple of seasons, after scoring one goal or less in its previous game. While the Lightning were somewhat mediocre on the road during the season, the Canes played well at home. The Bolts allow 3.0 goals per game on the road while the Canes allow 2.0 goals per game at home. The pick'em price offers fair value. |
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06-01-21 | Celtics +12.5 v. Nets | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston head coach Brad Stevens is 8-2 ATS as a double digit dog in his career with Boston when coming off a double digit loss, including 7-0 ATS the last seven games. He is also 4-1 ATS as a double digit dog, winning two of the games straight up. With the double digit playoff road dogs 30-15 ATS since 1990 when coming off a double digit loss, it's time to take the Celts tonight. |
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06-01-21 | Nationals +124 v. Braves | 11-6 | Win | 124 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nationals look to snap a five game losing streak with Stephen Strasburg on the mound. He's looked better lately (2.61 ERA in his last two starts) and he's taking on an Atlanta team that has posted heavy losses at home in 2021 (-$785). Max Fried is 0-3 in home night games (-$440, 5.06 ERA) and Washington does score more vs. lefthanders (4.5 per game). Underdog price on the visitor looks too good to pass up. |
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06-01-21 | Rays -111 v. Yankees | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -111 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
Rating: 10 units After opening the series with soft-tossing left-hander Rich Hill, hard-thrower Tyler Glasnow (4-2, 2.57 ERA) starts for Tampa Bay. On Wednesday, he allowed three hits in eight innings to go along with 11 strikeouts against the Kansas City Royals. Glasnow is 2-2 with a 3.38 ERA in six career starts against the Yankees, including 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA in New York. |
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06-01-21 | White Sox v. Indians UNDER 7.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox lead the American League Central with a 33-21 record, by 3.5 games over the Indians. However, their hitters have been less effective against right-handed starters, they are 1-7 in games where they’ve been the underdog (which means when facing as good or better pitchers than their own good starting cast), and Cleveland ace righty Shane Bieber is starting against them as the second-place Indians attempt to narrow the standings gap. Chicago’s Dylan Cease seems to be riding an up-curve, currently with the best ERA/WHIP he’s had during his two-plus MLB seasons: 2.98, 1.27. He’ll be pitching to a team averaging only ?? runs per game and is without its regular clean-up hitter Franmil Reyes. Chicago closer Liam Hendriks didn’t pitch during yesterday’s doubleheader split and is fresh, fit, ready to go if/when needed. A 6:10 pm, ET start in Cleveland invites shadows to become part of the attendance, which is not what hitters want to see. |
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05-31-21 | Mets -164 v. Diamondbacks | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Arizona Diamondbacks just snapped their 13-game losing streak, but they now face the daunting task of putting together another win against the major league's top pitcher, Jacob deGrom of the New York Mets. The two-time Cy Young Award winner leads the majors with a 0.80 ERA, allowing only four earned runs in 45 innings spanning seven starts. He also has 74 strikeouts to go with only seven walks. He struck out nine in a successful return from the injured list last Tuesday in a 3-1 victory over the visiting Colorado Rockies. He has never lost to Arizona, compiling a 4-0 record and 1.65 ERA in five career starts against the Diamondbacks. Arizona will counter with right-hander Merrill Kelly (2-5, 4.84 ERA). Kelly has allowed only 16 earned runs in his past seven starts (41 2/3 innings) and compiled 42 strikeouts with 12 walks in that span. He is 1-2 with a 2.79 ERA in three career starts against the Mets. He went 5 2/3 innings at New York on May 8 in a 4-2 loss. He allowed only three hits and struck out six but he also walked five batters. |
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05-31-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies +6 | 120-113 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Eh, they’re not dead yet, these Grizzlies. One bad quarter – the first – was pretty much to blame for their Game 3 loss that tipped the series 2-1 Utah’s way. Forget the 14-2 end run made by the Jazz that propelled them to the cover as well as the straight-up win. Way too many early defensive breakdowns put Memphis in a hole that no underdog needs to be in. Utah has made 19 three pointers in Games 2 and 3, with 48.7% and 44.2% accuracy. While there’s no steadfast rule that the team that took the most three-pointers per game in the league (43) should shoot a lesser percentage than their average of 38.8% in the next game after bettering it by that much twice in a row, a regression is on the table as a distinct possibility, especially if the Grizzlies have their act |
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05-31-21 | Cardinals +170 v. Dodgers | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals lost their first game out of 10 Jack Flaherty starts six days ago at the White Sox. It was a strange first two innings. The White Sox scored their first run on a groundout to Flaherty, their second run on two errors on one play. In the second inning, they scored on a single, a bases loaded walk, a wild pitch. It’s not like they hammered Flaherty around to jump out to their first 5 runs in an 8-3 game. We’ll take a mulligan with Flaherty as an even larger underdog this time, matched against L.A. ace Trevor Bauer. Dodgers who have faced Flaherty are 4-for-38 against him, all singles, 18-3 K-BB. Bauer has excellent numbers: 2.07 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 91-22 K-BB in 69 2/3 innings pitched. But the Dodgers are only 5-6 in his starts. Cardinals who have faced him are 8-for-22 (.363). |
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05-31-21 | 76ers -8 v. Wizards | 114-122 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Home teams in game four who are down 0-3 in the series of the opening round in the NBA Playoffs are 2-11 SU and 3-9-1 ATS since 1990. When these same teamss are coming off a loss of 13 or more points they dip to 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS. That is not promising news for the Washington Wizards this evening. |
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05-31-21 | A's -123 v. Mariners | 5-6 | Loss | -123 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Today's pitching matchup will feature a pair of rookies, James Kaprielian (2-0, 1.53 ERA) of Oakland and Logan Gilbert (0-2, 7.59 ERA) of Seattle. The 27-year-old Kaprielian made just two relief appearances in 2020 (3.2 IP) but in three starts here in 2021 (his first major-league start came May 12 at Boston), he's 2-0 (team is 3-0) with a 1.53 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 23-8 KW ratio and a .156 BAA. Gilbert's a 24-year-old rookie who has also made three starts in 2021. He struggled badly in his first two starts (6.2 IP / 7 ERs allowed) but had his best outing last week at Oakland, giving up two runs on four hits over four innings (settled for a no-decision in Seattle's 4-3 win). However, Logan's numbers hardly match Kaprielian's numbers (see above), as he owns a 7.59 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and a .283 BAA. |
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05-31-21 | Red Sox v. Astros +104 | 2-11 | Win | 104 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units “I’m very excited. I’m very healthy right now. Very anxious to do my best and help us win tomorrow.” So said Astros’ righty Jose Urquidy yesterday, one day before returning from the injured list, where he’s been since exiting in the fourth inning on May 12. Hey, thanks for the heads-up, Jose! Urquidy is 3-0 with a 1.52 ERA in his last four starts, with just 2 BBs and 4 ER allowed on 15 hits in 23 2/3 innings. Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed more hits than innings pitched in each of his last five starts, in which the Red Sox — a 32-20 team — are 1-4. Ah, the weak link, eh? Houston’s .283 team batting average against left-handed pitchers is MLB’s highest such number. Given that it has been produced with the most at-bats against lefties (763, vs. 658 for the next most frequent lefty-facers), it’s a more valid stat than most. Also, you don’t even need a calculator to figure that their 14-for-42 lifetime against Rodriguez equals .333. |
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05-31-21 | Angels v. Giants -148 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Giants plan to send veteran right-hander Johnny Cueto to the mound against the Angels. Cueto (3-1, 3.86 ERA) has faced the Angels only four times in his 14-year major league career, but is 3-0 against them with a 1.35 ERA. Cueto faced the Angels last Aug. 19 in Anaheim and earned the win after allowing two runs and four hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 7-2 victory. The Angels plan to send right-hander Dylan Bundy to the mound for the series opener. Bundy (0-5, 6.50) has struggled most of the season. He pitched a season-low 2 1/3 innings in his last outing against Oakland, allowing four runs and five hits. The Angels bailed him out from another loss by scoring five runs over the sixth through eighth innings in the 6-5 win. Bundy faced the Giants in August as well and surrendered a leadoff homer to Mike Yastrzemski and a two-run shot to Pablo Sandoval in the second before leaving after four innings in the 8-2 loss. |
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05-30-21 | Clippers -3 v. Mavs | 106-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units After five tries and five failures, the Clippers finally exceeded their scoring average in a game against Dallas. In their 118-103 Game 3 win here, as close to a must-win as there ever was, they overcame a 27-11 early deficit no less, to trail only 34-31 after one quarter. Dallas has never really seemed like a great defensive team, so the Clippers’ offensive struggles in the match-up may have been just one of those things, a statistical oddity. Could be that they’ve found the range. Meanwhile, here’s a stat that could provide some insight to the future: In Game 3, the Maver-icks shot a very good 20-for-39 on three-pointers (51.3%, compared to their regu-lar season average of 38.1%), yet lost it by 10 points |
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05-30-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche -178 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that Vegas is 11-25 in their last 36 games as a road underdog and 2-5 in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog. While Colorado is 46-13 in their last 59 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game, 20-8 in their last 28 playoff games as a favorite, and 45-20 in their last 65 games following a win. |
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05-30-21 | Giants +163 v. Dodgers | 5-4 | Win | 163 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Compared to Kershaw, Gausman has limited experience against his opponent Sunday. He is 0-2 with a 4.44 ERA lifetime against the Dodgers, with four of his five meetings against them over the past two seasons as a member of the Giants. Gausman has not given up more than one earned run in any of his past seven starts and has delivered consecutive scoreless outings against the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks. San Francisco is 7-3 in Gausman's 10 starts this season. The Giants also got some help off the injured list with first baseman Wilmer Flores activated Saturday following a strained right hamstring. Flores had three hits and scored two runs. His return was welcome news after both Brandon Belt and Darin Ruf went on the IL in advance of the current series. |
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05-30-21 | Royals +121 v. Twins | 6-3 | Win | 121 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The long, black-bearded mediocrity called Matt Shoemaker starts for the Twins. He has beaten Detroit and Baltimore. Big whoop. He beat us last time out against the Orioles but we don’t fear him today against the Royals, who got 8 hits and 9 runs against Shoemaker in 3 1/3 innings on May 1. The Royals very recently got starting shortstop Adalberto Mondesi back from the injured |