Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-06-23 | Chargers -180 v. Jets | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 60 h 53 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Week Rating; 5 Units The Chargers rolled past Chicago last Sunday Night when QB Herbert completed 31-of-40 passes for 298 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions to put themselves back in the playoff picture (they currently rank No. 12 in the current playoff seeding, one game back of No. 7 Cleveland for the final spot). The Jets figure to comply behind a horrible 1-7 ATS mark in games when both teams were favored the previous contest. Finally, the New York Jets are 2-9 SUATS in Game eight of the season, including 0-5 SUATS versus foes coming off a win. |
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11-06-23 | Kings v. Rockets +2 | 97-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 units Sacramento was a force last season as they won the Pacific Division title while their run and gun offense was a force. This season, they have had their struggles shooting the ball, entering Sunday fourth-worst in the league in field goal percentage as a team. Without Fox, it puts a lot of pressure on Mitchell to try and step up to be a facilitator. Houston has looked good in their last two games, wins over Charlotte and Sacramento, and look to make it three straight wins at home. This Rockets team won’t be the same pushover they have been in recent seasons. If Fox was playing, the Kings would be the easy call here but without him, Sacramento muddles their way through. Take the Rockets at home in this one. |
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11-06-23 | Celtics -138 v. Wolves | 109-114 | Loss | -138 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The league leaders in offensive rating will be visiting the leaders in defensive rating tonight as the Boston Celtics visit the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Celtics offense has been outstanding as they are averaging 126.4 points per game, nearly 4 more than the next best side. They also rank 3rd in 3-point shooting percentage, and that ability to attack from the outside is what will cause the Timberwolves the most issues here. With Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford both being effective shooters, it should help pull Rudy Gobert away from the basket, opening driving lanes. The hosts are also bottom of the NBA in 3-point percentage themselves. It has left them making close to 6 fewer 3-pointers per game than the Celtics, and that will be tough to overcome. The addition of Porzingis has turned the Celtics into a force on the defensive end too. The rim protection he provides has left them allowing fewer paint points to opponents than the Timberwolves currently do. With the visitors also in the top 10 in the league in fast break points per game, they should have success pushing the tempo and beating the hosts rim protectors down the floor. It looks like it could be a long night for the Timberwolves defense, so back the Celtics to cover the relatively small spread. |
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11-06-23 | Bruins +126 v. Stars | 3-2 | Win | 126 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Stars look to bounce back at home but the Bruins have been remarkable this season and I see them controlling this game from the first period. The Bruins, who average 3.18 goals per game, should create plenty of scoring chances with David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, and the rest of the forward unit controlling the puck in the offensive zone and creating open shots with quick passes. The Bruins, who allow only 1.91 goals per game, should limit the Stars' offense with Derek Forbort, Brandon Carlo, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone and limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Jeremy Swayman to make plenty of big saves. The Bruins should win the game and provide great odds in the process as road Underdogs. |
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11-05-23 | Grizzlies v. Blazers +2.5 | 112-100 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Trailblazers have won three straight games. They don’t have a high-scoring offense, but they played better offensively during their winning streak, averaging 108 points per game. They’ve taken advantage of their chances at the charity stripe, making over 80 percent of their free throws. Their rebounding has been good and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. The Grizzlies were one of the best defensive teams in the league last season, but they haven’t looked good so far, and they’re giving up more than 120 points per game on the road, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Trailblazers in this game. The Grizzlies have lost six straight games and three straight road games. They have struggled offensively on the road where they are scoring less than 110 points per game. They also struggled at the charity stripe and barely made over 70 percent of their free throws in their last three games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Trailblazers and they’ve been careless with the ball, turning it over more than 15 times per game, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Trailblazers, who are averaging more than nine steals per game in their last three games. With the Blazers holding opponents under 105 points per game in their last three games, expect them to keep Memphis’ offense in check. Go with Portland to win outright. |
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11-05-23 | Bills +2 v. Bengals | 18-24 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Buffalo has been struggling so much of the year, yet is only one game back of the Dolphins in the AFC East. Nevertheless, they’ll take the field this evening knowing they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six regular games against the AFC Central, as well as 13-1 ATS in games when both teams arrive off SUATS wins. |
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11-05-23 | Cowboys +3 v. Eagles | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
NFC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Dallas has 11 wins in a row at AT&T Stadium, the league’s longest current run of dominance at home, but they are only 4-6 in their last 10 road games. However, they are also 6-1 SUATS in their last seven division games as a road dog of fewer than 4 points. Mike McCarthy chips in with a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS mark in division games with a .500 or greater record with Dallas. The Cowboys enter this division duke out at 4-0 ATS in the first of back-to-back division games, while first-place Philly is 5-12 ATS in division home games against avenging opponents, including 1-5 ATS when the Eagles sport a winning record. Finally, Dallas QB Dak Prescott is 27-7 SU and 24-10 ATS in division games, including 7-1 SUATS during the first half of the season. |
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11-05-23 | Seahawks +6 v. Ravens | 3-37 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Pete Carroll is 52-36-3 ATS as a dog with the Seahawks, including 16-7-1 ATS as a single-digit dog versus .750 or greater opposition. Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that the home team is 26-43-3 ATS in Lamar Jackson’s NFL starts, and Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in games when coming off consecutive wins. Baltimore is just 1-4 ATS in the first of three straight home game, while QB Lamar Jackson is 12-21 ATS as an NFL home favorite, including 1-7 ATS when the Ravens are coming off an ATS loss of -3 or more points. |
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11-05-23 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -125 | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Dolphins are 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS against sub .333 opponents, but only 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS against .500 or greater opposition. The bottom line is the Chiefs check the latter box, and given the fact that you are generally as good as the company you keep, Featherhead freaks can take solace knowing Reid is 39-24 ATS in his NFL career in games following a SU favorite loss, including 22-9 SU and 21-10 ATS as a favorite of 7 or fewer points, including 6-0 ATS the last six games. Editor’s Note: These two teams are currently seeded No. 1 and 2 in the AFC Playoff Picture. Per Stathead.com – there has never been a Europe game between two teams that finished a season with a .700 winning percentage or better. Be sure to get up early and watch football. |
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11-04-23 | Oregon State -13 v. Colorado | 26-19 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units CU is 1-4 ATS in their last five and the primary culprit has been the defense, giving up 37.6 points and 442 yards per game in those five games. Much like Deion, we’ve kept the receipts too and they point out Colorado is 0-15 ATS as conference home dog of 13 or greater. Oregon State is 3-1 in the last four and 9-1 ATS as a conference road favorite of 7 or greater. |
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11-04-23 | Bulls v. Nuggets -8.5 | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are playing the second game of a back-to-back situation here and their third game in four nights so fatigue could be a factor. Obviously, you’ll have to keep an eye out to see if any of the star players on either side sit out, which would obviously change the dynamic. With that said, the Nuggets are the defending champions and they have one of, if not the, top player in the league with Jokic. Denver is stingy defensively, extremely efficient on the offensive end of the floor and they have the better talent to work with compared to Chicago. We’ve seen the Bulls struggle to shoot the ball with any consistency this season. Look for the Nuggets to prevail at home for this contest. |
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11-04-23 | Washington v. USC +3 | Top | 52-42 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 58 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units The Huskies are 2-8 ATS as road chalk, 3-8 ATS in the last 11 against Pac 12 foes .666 or better in the W and L column and in their last four games UDub is 0-3-1 ATS. The Trojans are 8-2-1 ATS when the underdog. As a Coliseum dog, the Men of Troy are 16-10-1 ATS including 7-3 ATS vs. the undefeated. Riley is 40-3 ATS in his career at home. Finally, Lincoln Riley is 4-0 SU vs unbeaten conference opponents and 3-0 ATS as a conference dog. |
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11-04-23 | California v. Oregon -24.5 | 19-63 | Win | 100 | 28 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Golden Bears are 2-7 ATS the last nine games after USC. Put Cal on the road, toss a big number at them and the Bears run, run, run away, going 3-11 ATS as conference road dog of 14 or greater and you wouldn’t be alone wondering what’s left in the Golden Bears tanks after the SC loss. Oregon has gone 5-0 ATS against teams coming at them with double conference revenge in mind and unlike Cal, which seemingly can’t handle the Trojans in a cracked rearview mirror, Oregon loves looking into the future, going 20-6 SU and 21-5 ATS prior to tangling with Tommy Trojan. This includes a very healthy 7-0 SUATS vs teams that allow 30 or more PPG. |
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11-04-23 | Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State +6 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 45 h 37 m | Show |
BIG-12 Play of the Day The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in the last four Bedlam confrontations, but plenty of the numbers going into this year’s edition are not so pretty. Oklahoma is 4-15-1 as conference road chalk of 6 points or more, 1-4 against the number in Game 9, and 1-4 against the number versus single conference revenge. Oklahoma State is 8-0 ATS as home dogs of less than 14 points and 6-0 ATS w/ single conference revenge. Additionally, Okie State is 5-1 ATS in their last six matchups with a conference opponent. Finally, the Cowboys are 18-10 SU and 18-9-1 ATS at home under Gundy against foes with a better win percentage, including 12-2 SUATS the last fourteen contests |
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11-04-23 | Kansas State +3.5 v. Texas | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Wildcats are 5-1 in Game 9 and 9-3 ATS versus.750 or better SEC foes. KSU’s Chris Kleiman holds all the edges, starting with a 34-19-1 ATS overall mark since joining the Wildcats in 2019, including 13-4 SU and 12-4-1 ATS against Big 12 foes coming off a SUATS win (8-0 SUATS over the last two seasons). Steve Sarkisian is 23-24 SU and 20-27 ATS when coming off a SUATS win, including 2-8 ATS versus .750 or greater opponents. Finally, confidence is high right now for Kleiman’s team, as they shut-out Houston last week, 41-0. |
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11-04-23 | Notre Dame v. Clemson +3 | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Notre Dame is just 8-16 ATS as road chalk against avenging foes, including 1-8 ATS against foes who surrender fewer than 25 PPG. Be aware that Clemson fell 38-14 in South Bend last season and when we pair that with a strong 6-2 mark in their last 8 meetings with the Irish, we are looking at this game in a totally different light. Dabo Swinney has a 19-6 SU career mark in games in which his Tigers sport a .500-or-less win percentage, and he’s lost three straight games only twice in his career. Finally playing on any college football underdog from Game Seven out during the regular season if they were a bowl team last season and are coming off consecutive SU losses as a favorite and they are facing a greater than .700 foe off a SU double-digit win is e 28-14-1 ATS in this role since 1990, including 24-8-1 ATS versus foes coming off a SU win. Better yet, when taking on these same foes coming off a SUATS win, they’ve gone 15-2 ATS since 2011. |
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11-03-23 | Mavs +7 v. Nuggets | 114-125 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'll gladly take Dallas to cover, with Denver coming off a blowout loss and dealing with injuries to stars Murray and Jokic! The Mavs have the third-highest schedule-adjusted offensive rating, including the fourth-highest effective field goal percentage (58.2%). They have been especially dominant in the paint (67.7 rim FG%) and from three-point range (41.0%). I expect Doncic (33.8 PPG, 10.5 RPG, and 9.8 APG) to have another monster game, leading the Mavs to an easy cover against the Nuggets. |
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11-03-23 | Boston College +3 v. Syracuse | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The first four games of this season for Syracuse had the look of a painted masterpiece when they went 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS, winning the stats in every contest by an average 267 yards per game. Then Orange went 0-4 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats), losing by an average margin of -18.5 PPG and an average stat loss of -302 net YPG. Boston College has won four straight games compared to Da Cuse’s four consecutive losses. In fact, the Eagles bring an 8-0 ATS ledger into this brawl when coming off a home favorite win, as well as a 5-1 ATS mark on Weekdays. BC is also looking to get even for back-to-back losses to the Orange, and Syracuse owns a dreadful 0-5 ATS record at home versus double revenge. Considering Syracuse has scored just 34 total points in their 4-game slide, the Eagles’ 6-2 ATS success when playing with double conference revenge gives us the win. |
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11-02-23 | Magic v. Jazz +1.5 | 115-113 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jazz will be rested and ready to go despite playing the second game of a back-to-back tonight. They will also challenge the Magic's preference for a slower-paced game won in the paint by spacing the floor and forcing Orlando to defend well outside the paint. Orlando is playing the fourth and final game of this trip and is 1-2 thus far, losing each of the last two contests. Orlando's defense has progressively gotten worse on the trip highlighted by the 118 points allowed against the Clippers. The Jazz were able to defeat the Clippers earlier this season because of their ability to match the scoring of LA from long range. Expect the Jazz to stretch the floor and keep the Magic off balance on Thursday night to pick up the home win. |
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11-02-23 | Titans +3 v. Steelers | 16-20 | Loss | -118 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pittsburgh has four wins, and the Black-and-Gold’s offense has scored 12, 23, 17, and 24 points, respectively, in each – or an average average of 19 points per contest. It’s brutal. In fact, it’s eerily similar to another Black-and-Gold college football offense we’ve come to despise this season – Iowa. With it, the 3-4 Titans bring the better offense and the better defense into this fray against the 4-3 Steelers. With Tennessee a tidy 7-0-1 ATS in Game Eight’s the past eight seasons and the Burgers 0-7 ATS as non-division home chalk of -3 or more points. |
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11-02-23 | TCU +3 v. Texas Tech | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Frogs dress up as a defending Playoff Championship Game losing dog, and while they are the only team to have failed in this role (8-1 ATS) since the inception of the College Football Playoff, (and they failed miserably in a 41-3 loss at Kansas State two weeks ago in their last appearance). Tech is an undependable 1-5 ATS when arriving off a SU favorite loss and they show up trending downward on a 0-2 SUATS skein. Don’t forget this: TCU head coach Sonny Dykes is 8-3 ATS as a dog when his team is playing with rest, including 3-0 SUATS versus losing foes. |
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11-01-23 | Bulls v. Mavs -185 | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams could be without key players, as Irving and LaVine are questionable to play. That said, even without Kyrie, I believe the Mavs have the talent to cover at home. This season, Dallas is seventh in schedule-adjusted offensive rating, fourth in effective field goal percentage, ninth in rim FG%, and fourth in three-point shooting percentage. That is partially due to the great start by Doncic, who is averaging 39.0 points on 55.6 percent shooting, including 48.6 percent shooting from three. The 24-year-old is also leading the team in rebounds (11.7) and assists (9.7). The team is also benefiting from solid contributions by Tim Hardaway Jr. (19.0 PPG), who should fill in just fine if Irving can't suit up. Chicago is a pretty good team, but it's likely to struggle without its leading scorer, LaVine (24.5 PPG). Even with the veteran shooter, the Bulls are dead last in effective field goal percentage (46.5%), 24th in rim FG% (57.8%), 25th in mid-range FG% (35.7%), and 26th in three-point FG% (29.4%). That won't be easy to fix on the road, even if LaVine can play. |
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10-30-23 | Jazz v. Nuggets -8 | 102-110 | Push | 0 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even playing for the second straight day, whereas the Jazz are rested, home-court advantage should neutralize that aspect. Then, it's simply a question of whether or not the Jazz defense can stop Denver's offense. The answer based on what has transpired this season is an emphatic no. The Nuggets offense, currently the best in adjusted offensive rating, won't struggle to score at all against Utah. Scoring won't come as easy for the Jazz, who won't get many good looks from deep against Denver. A 4-0 start comes easily for the Nuggets. |
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10-30-23 | Raiders v. Lions -8 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 81 h 37 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Month Rating: 4 Units Detroit returns home where they are 13-2-1 ATS as a host since Thanksgiving day in 2021. They are also 7-1 ATS in games when both teams arrive off a SUATS loss. And then there are the Raiders, who rank dead last in the league in rushing, averaging 69 yards on the ground, despite having Josh Jacobs in the backfield, which goes to the abilities of Josh McDaniels as a head coach. Note that home teams on Monday Night Football are a resolute 31-18 ATS since 1980 when coming off a loss of more than 21 points. Finally, Lions’ head coach Campbell is 17-8-1 ATS at home as an NFL head coach, as well as 18-6 ATS in games in which his squad hold foes to 100 or fewer rush yards, including 14-1 ATS the last 15 games. |
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10-29-23 | Spurs v. Clippers -8.5 | 83-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs have been turning the ball over a lot thus far. Also, their defense has struggled a lot, so I’m backing the Clippers to bounce back from a tough loss in Salt Lake City. Los Angeles should play better defense in front of the home audience and take full advantage of the Spurs’ D. San Antonio has allowed a staggering 132 points in the paint through its first two outings in 2023-24, and the Spurs will struggle to contain the Clippers’ drives to the hoop. The Clippers went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS against the Spurs last regular season. San Antonio has only covered once in its last four road games against the Clippers, who trounced the Spurs 138-100 in their previous encounter at Crypto.com Arena. |
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10-29-23 | Bears v. Chargers -8.5 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 56 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite having the luxury of golden-armed QB Justin Herbert, Brandon Staley is looking over his shoulder with the poor performance by the Chargers this season. They sport the 31st-ranked (2nd worst) overall defense in the league and have outgained only two opponents in overall yardage this season (by 01 and 41 yards). Still, with Chicago 0-5 SUATS off a win, as well as 0-6 ATS when coming off a double-digit win, it’s difficult casting a glance their way tonight, especially with Bagent making his second NFL start. Look for the Bolts to improve to 5-1 ATS under Staley in games when coming off consecutive losses tonight. |
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10-29-23 | Jets v. Giants +3 | 13-10 | Push | 0 | 50 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units With Saquon Barkley back in the starting lineup, expect Big Blue to attack a lean Green rush defense that is 16-34 ATS in the last 50 games in which it allowed 100-plus yards on the ground. Meanwhile, the Jets have not won a game when coming off a Bye week since 2015, going 1-10 outright, including seven straight losses since 2015 (0-2 SUATS under Robert Saleh), while the Giants are 5-1-1 ATS the last seven games in this series. Finally, the Giants are 8-4 ATS as a pick or dog in non-division games under Brian Daboll, including 3-0 SUATS versus .500 or fewer opponents. |
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10-29-23 | Vikings -124 v. Packers | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 49 h 28 m | Show |
NFL Conference Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins silenced the critics as he was simply terrific with a brilliant performance against the 49ers on Monday Night with a 35 of 45 (77.8 %) effort for 478 yards and two TDs. That’s the same Kirk Cousins who was 2-10 SUATS in his NFL career on Monday Nights. So, with the Packers riding a 1-6 ATS skein in the second of back-to-back games as chalk, and the Vikes 4-1 ATS after Monday Night hosters, and finally Vikings QB Cousins is 11-3 SUATS away from Game Four out versus sub .400 NFL opponents in his NFL career, including 6-0 ATS versus non division foes |
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10-29-23 | Patriots v. Dolphins -9 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Now that Belichick is breathing without a bit after last weeks win, we’ll look to fade him in a series he’s gone 0-6 ATS of late while bringing a 1-9 ATS dog-log into this affair, while his counterpart Mike McDaniel looks to improve on his 7-2 ATS mark in division games (3-0 SUATS at home). |
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10-29-23 | Falcons v. Titans +2.5 | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 49 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta is on top of the AFC South for the first time in eight seasons, despite a minus-18-point differential. To which they can thank a defense that ranks No. 4 overall, allowing a mere 285 YPG. The Titans’ hope is coming off a Bye week, where they are 6-0 ATS in this series when rested, and a 5-0 ATS log at home before hitting the highway in the next two games, which should fit like a glove into the Falcons’ flighty 3-12 ATS record away in games when coming off an away contest. |
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10-29-23 | Texans v. Panthers +3.5 | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 49 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A positive omen is the fact that NFL underdogs who have allowed 40-plus points in each of their last two games are 7-2 ATS the past nine seasons, including 6-0 ATS when coming off a non-division contest. On the flip side, the Texans check is 0-4 ATS as a favorite after dressing up as a dog in their previous game. With Carolina 4-0 ATS in this series, and 7-1 ATS against opponents coming off a Bye, and 9-2 ATS against AFC South opponents, we’ll fade a Houston squad that is 1-7 ATS against foes coming off a Bye. With the Texans having 11 players on the IR, which ties with the Colts and Falcons for most in the league, look for the Panthers to win today. |
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10-28-23 | Oregon State v. Arizona +3 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 54 h 27 m | Show |
PAC-12 Game of the Week Rating; 5 Units Jedd Fisch rebuild, now in its third year and very much on track. Last week they embarrassed Washington State 44-6 for the Wildcats largest margin of victory over a ranked opponent. Oregon State is a solid, well-coached outfit to be sure and QB DJ Uiagalelei has finally stopped having screaming nightmares about Clemson Coach Dabo Sweeney. DJ hasn’t been picked since September 30th vs. Utah. Watch for the starting QB for Fisch- early in the week he had not announced if RS-Freshman Noah Fifita gets the nod against over the injured vet Jayden de Laura. If he plays, it’s a game changer in favor of U of A since the Hawaii native is completing a very nice 69% of his passes and has three rushing TD’s. Jedd Fisch is 4-0 ATS as a dog versus teams coming off consecutive SUATS wins. AZ is 4-2 ATS and 6-0 SU in this series when coming off a win of 28 points or greater and they’re 5-2 ATS as conference home dogs. Finally, the Beavers are 1-7-1 ATS as road favorites of fewer than seven points, including 0-6-1 ATS vs sub .600 opponents. |
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10-28-23 | Jazz +5.5 v. Suns | 104-126 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm going to assume that Booker misses this game, because there's no reason to play him with an injury that could linger and needs rest. In that case, Durant will have to score 40 in this one and while he might, his supporting cast is very weak without Booker and Beal. Markkanen, in a lot of ways, is a poor man's Durant, in the way he can score at that size and Collins gives them another capable big man scorer. That sizeable frontcourt will be difficult to defend for the smaller Suns. |
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10-28-23 | North Carolina v. Georgia Tech +11.5 | 42-46 | Win | 100 | 52 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Georgia Tech has been a major thorn in North Carolina’s side for two straight years, winning 21-17 at home as a +21.5-dog last season, and 45-22 at home as a +14.5-point-dog in 2021. That’s just the tip of the bad-news iceberg for the Heels, as they’re 2-15 ATS when coming off a conference home game and head coach Mack Brown is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in his career when coming off an upset loss as a favorite of more than 15 points. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets have cashed in 4 of the last five series meetings, plus they’re a stout 6-1 ATS of late when taking points. If that sounds like too much for the downtrodden Tar Heels to overcome in Atlanta tonight, consider that playing against any college football favorite coming off an upset loss as a favorite of 20 or more points if they’re facing a .400 or greater opponent has produced a 27-45-2 ATS overall ATS mark since 1980. Better yet, put these same unassuming squads up against an opponent coming off a loss, and they become a 5-20-1 ATS fade (North Carolina). |
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10-28-23 | Cincinnati +7.5 v. Oklahoma State | 13-45 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cowpokes return home to Stillwater off three straight upset, underdog wins knowing they are 0-8 ATS as a favorite when coming off a win of more than ten points as a dog. With Bedlam rival Oklahoma on deck, look for another Homecoming favorite to bite the dust here, as long as the Bearcats can slow down RB Ollie Gordon II. As for Cincy, the Bearcats are on series of bad runs, but playing against any college football favorite of -4 or more points coming off three consecutive underdog wins if they are facing an opponent that is not coming off a win of 24 or more points is 11-1 ATS, and we don’t turn our back on 91% winning propositions. Additionally, Scott Satterfield is 8-4-1 ATS versus foes coming off a SU underdog win. |
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10-28-23 | Colorado v. UCLA -17 | 16-28 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units CU has been outgained by an average of 75 yards per game this season and are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road dog appearances, 1-9 ATS coming off a home loss, 1-6 ATS as the dog after being the favorite last game. The Bruins are one of ten remaining teams that has outgained their foes in every game this season. Colorado is last in the FBS world defensively, and UCLA is 7-1 ATS off a win vs. a team coming off a loss. |
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10-28-23 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin +14.5 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 34 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ryan Day’s team is 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as favorites of 14 points or more, 1-6 ATS in Game 8 and 1-6 ATS against the number after butting heads with Penn State. It is strange to see the Big Ten West division leader installed as a 14-point home dog, but that is the hand the Badgers are being dealt today. Additionally, Wisconsin is a perfect 10 ATS when getting more than six points as a home underdog. |
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10-28-23 | Oklahoma v. Kansas +9.5 | Top | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 44 h 6 m | Show |
Big-12 Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units KU is 5-1 ATS in the last six games of this series and a most impressive 7-0-1 ATS versus undefeated opponents that give up more than 14 PPG. (OU is a still stingy 16.4 PPG). Can Oklahoma stop the run? The Sooners are going to have to, because Kansas has a two headed rushing combo of Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw Junior who have combined for nearly 1,100 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns so far. Oklahoma is 2-7 ATS when coming off a conference home game. Finally, Jayhawks Head Coach Lance Leipold is 29-10-1 ATS at home in FBS play, including 13-1-1 ATS versus greater than .700 opponents and 12-1-1 ATS when his team is .700 or better. Rock, Go Against the Chalk, KU! |
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10-27-23 | Nets v. Mavs -6 | 120-125 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Dallas has more weapons and has their identity figured out early in the season, while Brooklyn doesn't. The Maverick's backcourt of Doncic and Irving can be relied upon to score at least 40 points per night. Both guards have the ability to penetrate and draw the defense in, and that is why the front office surrounded the team with shooters. Williams, Kleber, Hardaway Jr. and Green all hit multiple threes in the opener. This creates more spacing and synergy in the offense. The Nets cannot rely on Cam Thomas to score 36 every night. Clearly, that is not the plan, but what is Brooklyn's identity? Ben Simmons no longer plays like an All-Star, and it has yet to be seen if Mikal Bridges can truly carry an NBA team as the top player on the squad. Dallas outrebounded the taller San Antonio in the opener, and can dominate inside here as well. Take the Mavericks as the better team in this early-season matchup. |
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10-27-23 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers -154 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Zac Gallen was one of the best pitchers in baseball during the regular season and regularly got the Diamondbacks deep into games and to the backend of their bullpen. In the playoffs, that hasn't been the case. Gallen has only one quality start in the postseason and he has consistently been hit hard, particularly with fastballs up in the zone. In fact, Gallen's weariness has shown up in his strikeout rate which has dropped by more than four per game in the playoffs. On the other side, Eovaldi has only gotten better as the season turned to October. The playoff-savvy righty has won all four of his starts this postseason and has pitched at least six innings in each of his four starts. While Gallen has struggled with runners in scoring position, Eovaldi has thrived. Eovaldi had the best ERA in baseball with RISP in the regular season and that trend has continued in the postseason. While the D-backs have gotten solid offensive production out of Marte, with his 16-game hitting streak, and Carroll seems to be heating up, the Diamondbacks have less threats all across their lineup. The Rangers, meanwhile, are loaded with hitting threats throughout the lineup with Corey Seager, Evan Carter and Josh Jung combing for seven home runs and all hitting at or near .300 in the playoffs. That doesn't include red-hot Adolis Garcia who has seven home runs himself and 20 RBI in the playoffs. This series will be fascinating but game one won't be quite as interesting. |
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10-26-23 | Suns +6 v. Lakers | 95-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
The Suns came out and took down the Warriors in game one on the road despite not having Beal available. While Beal's availability is still in question, the Suns should have enough fire to take down the Lakers. The Lakers will be a work in progress over the first part of the season. They have to adjust to James' playing time limitations and a roster full of new players. The loss of Jarred Vanderbilt to start the season is important to the Lakers' rotation. With Vanderbilt out, Prince has been put in a starting spot which weakens what could be a deep Lakers' bench. The Suns showed their own depth in the opener with 16 points off the bench from Gordon. Gordon will be a stalwart for the Suns' second unit and allow the team to thrive when either Durant or Booker is off the floor. The Suns also showed more toughness in the opener with Nurkic now at center. He earned a double-double on Tuesday night and helped to create space for Durant in the post. Word to the wise, jump on this line quickly. If Beal is cleared, this line will drop closer to one or two points. |
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10-26-23 | Georgia State v. Georgia Southern | 27-44 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
The 6-1 / 3-1 Panthers are breathing down James Madison’s neck for top honors in the Sun Belt East, but the fact of the matter is they, and Georgia Southern each control their own destinies of playing in the Sun Belt championship game simply by winning out. It may seem strange seeing the Eagles as chalk here but their previous three losses to the Panthers were all close games, losing by margins of 8, 7 and 6 points. In addition, Georgia Southern has been held to less than 34 points just twice this season in losses to James Madison and Wisconsin. Throw out those two games and the Eagles offense has churned out 38.9 PPG. With it, we’ll back the avenger with the better offense and the better defense here tonight. |
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10-25-23 | Mavs -160 v. Spurs | 126-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Dallas is far from perfect, but they're a team that can score on anyone. Their two stars are playing, which will stress the rest of a Spurs roster that was the NBA's worst defensive outfit a year ago. The Mavs have won seven of the last eight meetings (four straight in San Antonio) and with a small spread, take them to win again |
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10-23-23 | Rangers v. Astros -122 | 11-4 | Loss | -122 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers and Astros have failed to protect their home field in all six games of this series thus far. The Rangers are now 7-0 on the road in the postseason after being a relatively mediocre road team this season. The Astros are 40-46 overall at home this season and 1-4 at home in the postseason. Despite that, I'm leaning toward the Astros in the seventh and deciding game. The Astros will be sending Javier to the hill and his postseason track record over the last two postseasons has been remarkable. He has an ERA under one and a half in five appearances, including four starts. He is a perfect 4-0 in that time and allowed a total of just six hits in 23.2 innings of work. Javier has a fairly rested backend of the bullpen, particularly the closer Ryan Pressly, ready to go behind him. The Rangers will start Scherzer but I'm certainly concerned with the righty's ability to get very deep into this start after going four innings in his return in game three. Scherzer is a gamer but his stuff is not nearly as dominant as it was in 2019 when he led the Nationals to the World Title. The Rangers are built to win when their starters get deep into games and Bochy can manipulate the bullpen with the right matchups to close out the game, as he was able to do in games 1, 2, and 6. When his starters don't get deep into the game, Bochy's bullpen is exposed. I expect that to happen again. |
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10-22-23 | Dolphins v. Eagles -155 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After falling into a 14-0 hole, the Dolphins scored 6 TDs on 12 possessions and cruised past Carolina last week, setting the table in this battle of one-loss squads. Since 2004, 5-0 teams who lost their initial season games in the previous contest are 6-2 SUATS at home in bounce-back efforts, including 4-0 SUATS in the last four. With the Eagles 16-8 SU and 17-7 ATS against the AFC East, including 6-1 ATS versus greater than .750 opponents, and the Dolphins 1-5 SUATS in games coming off a pair of 14-plus point wins, it’s back to business for Philly tonight. |
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10-22-23 | Chargers +5.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 58 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units When the Bolts hired Kellen Moore from Dallas to be their offensive coordinator after firing Joe Lombardi after last season, Moore was expected to elevate the Chargers’ offense among the best in the league. So far, Moore has done that for the passing offense, but the Chargers’ trouble running the ball has remained. Nonetheless, QB Justin Herbert enters 12-7 ATS in his NFL career in division games, including 5-0 ATS as a dog of more than three points. With the Bolts 10-3 ATS as division road dogs and the Chiefs 1-6 ATS after hosting a Thursday game. Finally, defending Super Bowl champions coming off a SUATS win are 8-18-2 ATS at home in division games the following season against foes coming off a SUATS loss, including 1-9 ATS when the champs sport a greater than .800 win percentage. |
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10-22-23 | Steelers v. Rams -160 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -160 | 31 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units LA will need to put a complete game together, with star WR Cooper Kupp back in the lineup, that will happen real soon. Knowing the Rams are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS when coming off a division home game and facing a .500 or greater foe certainly aids their case. So does the fact that head Steeler Mike Tomlin is 3-10 ATS away off a win with rest in his career versus non-division opponents. Finally, .600 or greater NFL road dogs, coming off a Bye that won their previous game outright as an underdog, are 2-17 SU and 4-15 ATS – including 0-7 SUATS since 2000 if they are facing a sub .600 opponent. |
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10-22-23 | Bills v. Patriots +8 | 25-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units After tallying more than 36 points in Games Two through Four, the Bills plateaued with 20-and-14-point scoring efforts the past two weeks. Buffalo’s rush defense is among the worst in the league, allowing 5.4 YPR (only Denver is worse at 5.6). That’s a full 2.0 YR worse than the 3.4 yards per carry that the Pats allow. Aside from Buffalo having a difficult time in Game Sevens, 1-7-1 ATS the last eight years, the Patriots are 7-1 ATS in the seventh games of the season, including 6-2 outright. Finally, Patriots HC, Belichick is 15-4 ATS as a dog of more than 7 points, including 4-0 SUATS when his team sports a sub .250 win percentage. |
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10-22-23 | Commanders -145 v. Giants | 7-14 | Loss | -145 | 27 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Giants have lost four straight games and both of their home games. They have been the worst offensive team in the league this season and managed to score only three points in two home games. Their passing game hasn’t been good and their ground game is just a little bit better. Even though Barkley looked good in his first game back from injury, the Commanders know they can’t throw the ball efficiently and will stack the box and force Taylor to beat them with his arm, which will be very difficult because the Commanders have done a great job of getting to the quarterback and they’re averaging four sacks per game on the road, so expect them to bottle up New York’s offense in this game. The Commanders split their six games, but they’ve won two of their three road games. They’re playing well offensively, especially on the road where they scored at least 30 points in two of three games. They don’t run the ball well but they’ve done a good job throwing it. The Giants aren’t very good at defending the pass and they are the worst team in the league when it comes to pressuring opposing quarterbacks, which means Howell will have plenty of time to find his receivers, so expect the Giants to have a hard time slowing them down in this game. Go with Washington to cover the spread. |
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10-22-23 | Raiders v. Bears +3 | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 27 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Raiders’ signal caller Jimmy Garoppolo was hospitalized with a back injury during last week’s contest against New England. On Bagent’s first drive in the NFL, he was strip-sacked, and the Vikings returned the fumble 42 yards for a touchdown. It proved to be a costly play in the Vikings’ 19-13 victory. With the quarterback situation up in the air in this fray, we’ll look to fade Las Vegas’ 0-9 ATS ledger as a road favorite as the Bears improve to 8-2 ATS in this series |
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10-21-23 | Phillies -121 v. Diamondbacks | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Arizona found some life in Game 3 by winning in walk-off fashion and pulled an incredible win out in Game 4, but the question is whether the Snakes can conjure up that kind of magic two more times to win the series. We saw this pitching matchup at Citizens Bank Park Monday night with Wheeler dealing for six strong frames while Gallen was tagged for three homers en route to giving up five runs in five innings. The Phillies still have the stronger pitching as they were solid even in the Game 3 defeat. We’ve seen Philadelphia’s bats do the job in the postseason time and again: that should be the case here as the Phillies earn the win as Wheeler turns in another solid outing. |
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10-21-23 | Utah v. USC -7 | Top | 34-32 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 21 m | Show |
PAC-12 Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units There are some good numbers on USC, including a 9-3 ATS mark with triple revenge, plus a 6-2 spread record after a non-conference road game and a 5-2 ATS record after taking on Notre Dame. As for the Utes, it’s beginning to look as though they will be redshirting star QB Cam Rising, as his recovery from knee surgery is not looking promising. Kyle Whittingham is 8-16-1 ATS when the Utes lose their previous game outright as a road dog, including 1-12-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 7 points. Finally, USC head coach Lincoln Riley is 40-2 outright at home in his career, including 20-0 from Game Six out. |
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10-21-23 | Clemson -145 v. Miami-FL | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -145 | 55 h 22 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The fact is the 4-2 / 2-2 Tigers find themselves up against it and if they have any realistic hope of competing in the ACC title game (which they’ve missed only once since 2015), a win today is mandatory. Point spread history suggests they’ll get it done, considering Clemson is 6-2 and 7-1 ATS in the series of late, including 4-0 SUATS the last four. The Hurricanes put up plenty of garbage yards in last week’s loss at UNC but they’re a feeble 0-5 ATS at home with conference revenge and 1-7 ATS when both teams are coming off a conference game. They also have problems coming off two losses, going 4-11 SU and 4-10 ATS, including 0-3 SUATS away, with every loss by 18 or more points. Finally, Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal is 9-16 ATS at home in conference games, including 0-5 SUATS with Miami. |
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10-21-23 | Duke +15 v. Florida State | 20-38 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Florida State has dominated this series, none of those results came with Mike Elko roaming on the opposite side of the fi eld for the Blue Devils. Elko is 14-5 SU and 13-4 ATS at Durham, including 3-0 SUATS as a double-digit dog. Duke’s only defeat this season came by just 7 points in a gut busting 21-14 loss to Notre Dame and Elko calmed the masses two weeks later with a suffocating 24-3 defeat of NC State. As for FSU, we’re simply not enamored with their body of work this season as they’ve been out-yarded on two occasions, and own a mediocre 343 YPG defense. |
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10-21-23 | Army +31.5 v. LSU | 0-62 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units To start with the Black Knights are 8-2 ATS s dogs of more than 20 points, and a 5-2 ATS mark for Army in their last seven matchups with the SEC. Then, Military dogs of 14 or more points are 7-0 ATS versus SEC foes since 1984. Also, playing on any college football military dog of 20+ points coming off a SUATS loss versus an opponent coming off consecutive SUATS wins is 12-1 ATS. Meanwhile, the Bayou Bengals are just 1-4 ATS before a Week of Rest, and a miserable 2-8 ATS when coming off a conference game versus a foe coming off a non-conference contest. Brian Kelly’s offense had another explosive game last week against Auburn behind his dazzling QB Jaylen Daniels, but laying such heavy lumber is not where we believe we need to be. And with the Tigers eyeballing Alabama next, we’ll surely take the number. |
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10-21-23 | Central Florida v. Oklahoma -17.5 | 29-31 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Sooners are 4-1 ATS after taking on the Longhorns. They are also 12-0 ATS at home before back-to-back road tilts. Meanwhile, the Knights have not been a good underdog in recent years, going 1-6 ATS as dogs of more than 2 touchdowns, 1-5 ATS with rest, and a horrible 2-10 ATS when coming off a SU favorite loss. These lousy numbers are not a good omen for the struggling Knights, who enter on a 0-3 SUATS slide after opening the season 3-0. The plummeting record coincided with the loss of QB John Rhys Plumlee to a leg injury, and while he did start in UCF’s last game, a 51-22 loss to Kansas, it is not encouraging that he played only the first three series against the Jayhawks before leaving with another minor injury. |
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10-21-23 | Penn State +5.5 v. Ohio State | 12-20 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Penn State HC Franklin has beaten the Buckeyes only once going into his tenth season with the Nittany Lions, he’s mopped up against the spread, cashing in 7 of their nine series get-togethers, and three of four against Day. There is also a huge disparity in numbers today. Penn State is 9-0 ATS in its last nine Big Ten contests and 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 conference road games. By comparison, Ohio State stands 0-5 ATS as home chalk of 10 or fewer points and 0-5 ATS in games when both teams are unbeaten, and the Buckeyes are coming off a conference tilt. |
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10-20-23 | Astros +100 v. Rangers | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This afternoon's matchup between the Astros and Rangers appears to be the immovable object against the unstoppable force. The Astros are undefeated on the road in the playoffs and had the best road record in baseball this season. The Rangers are a perfect 3-0 in games started by Friday's starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery. The Astros have their own postseason hero going in this game in Justin Verlander, however. Verlander is 1-1 this postseason after game one's loss to the Rangers but the righty allowed just two runs in the game while giving Houston his second straight quality start of the postseason. Verlander is also 7-3 on the road this season with an ERA just over 3.00. He will be backed by an Astros' offense that has absolutely feasted at Globe Life Field. Following Thursday night's win, the Astros have won eight of their last nine games played at Texas and have hit an incredible 26 home runs as a team while averaging 8.9 runs per game. The Rangers have scored just 40 runs in that same span against the Astros. Jose Altuve has been a one-man wrecking crew at Globe Life Field, hitting eight home runs there this year including one in this series. The Astros' bullpen will be rested and ready to back Verlander in the late innings once again and, this time, Verlander should have offensive support behind him. |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints -116 | 31-24 | Loss | -116 | 27 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jacksonville’s team turnover differential is +7, which ranks second in the NFL. And the Jaguars lead the NFL in takeaways with 15. But the fact of the matter is that TOs have a tendency to regress to the mean. Meanwhile, Jags’ QB Trevor Lawrence is questionable with a sprained knee. If he sits, it will be C.J. Beathard behind center for Jacksonville. Beathard has made 12 starts during his NFL career, going 2-10 SU and 5-7 ATS. The Jags are also 1-10 ATS in their last eleven games against the NFC South, while the Saints are 4-0 SUATS in the last four games in this series. For a team that just spent two weeks in London that now hits the road for two more games outside of Jacksonville, we’re betting they won’t make it back home unscathed. |
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10-19-23 | Astros +102 v. Rangers | 10-3 | Win | 102 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Game four is by far the most intriguing game of this ALCS thus far. Both teams were rather mum on the starter for this game although the moves by each manager in game three seem to have established Urquidy vs. Heaney as the initial matchup for game four. Both pitchers will have a short leash in game four as the Astros look to knot the series while the Rangers look to take a daunting 3-1 lead. Urquidy is the more established postseason pitcher in this matchup with 13 appearances in his career in October. He will be backed up by starters Hunter Brown and J.P. France in the early innings and then the usual suspects out of the Astros bullpen from the fifth inning on. The Rangers will likely turn to Heaney with his solid showings against Houston this season and he will be backed up by Dane Dunning in the early innings. The emergence of Jose Altuve in game three and then the patience shown by Kyle Tucker at the plate should give the Astros lineup a huge boost. The Rangers' offense has cooled a bit in this series with two runs in game one and then four runs through two innings in game two before going hitless through the fourth inning in game three. The streaky Rangers will need to find their relentless offense again soon. I like the Astros to knot this series in game four with big games from all the big bats, particularly Altuve, Tucker and the red-hot Yordan Alvarez. Their bullpen was touched up for three runs in game three but they didn't have to use Phil Maton or Rafael Montero. The Rangers bullpen will be rested with all the primary relievers rested in game three but they looked shaky in game two. The Astros will turn the pressure on in game four and use their experience to knot this series heading into game five. |
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10-19-23 | James Madison v. Marshall +3.5 | 20-9 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units JMU hit the wall after a 5-0 start last season when they proceeded to drop their next three games before rallying back with three straight wins to close out the campaign. We can see more of the same in the offing this season as they edged Georgia Southern by only 18 total yards in last week’s 28-point home win, thanks largely to a 3-0 turnover edge against the Eagles. Sure, the Stumbling Herd has lost two in a row, but they’re a thundering 18-4 SU at home when coming off consecutive losses, including 10-0 the last ten. To seal the deal, Marshall is 8-2-2 ATS as a home dog against undefeated foes, including 5-0-2 ATS in games in which the Thundering Herd is not undefeated. |
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10-18-23 | New Mexico State -145 v. UTEP | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In the previous 36 games before Kill’s arrival, the Aggies were favored only THREE times. Under JK, they’ve been chalk in 7 out of 20 contests, and the boys in Vegas have elevated them enough to appear in the unusual role of road favorite tonight. Maybe they noticed that Kill has taken a page from the Hugh Freeze playbook and become a full-fledged cripple shooter, as he is 19-7 ATS away against foes coming off a loss, including 10-1 ATS versus .333 or fewer opponents. UTEP beat NMSU on this field last year, 20-17, in a game where the winning Miners were actually out-yarded but don’t look for UTEP’s pop-gun offense (17.7 PPG) to challenge the Aggies here. Our well-oiled machine concurs, noting that the Miners are 0-7 ATS as a conference home dog of fewer than 25 points versus winning foes and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against avenging opponents. |
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10-18-23 | Astros +114 v. Rangers | 8-5 | Win | 114 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm going with the defending champs to pick up their first series win tonight. Scherzer is undoubtedly one of the best pitchers of this generation but comes into this game pitching for the first time in over a month. He also was hit hard in two starts against the Astros this season, coughing up four home runs in the process. He no longer has the kind of velocity to challenge hitters and he may struggle with location on Wednesday in his first start since September 12th. Javier was also hit hard this season by Texas, with a no-decision in his only start against them. He didn't last five innings in the game, however. The postseason has been a different thing altogether for Javier in the past few seasons. He stormed his way to a 3-0 mark in last year's postseason and picked up a win in his only start this year. Javier is now 4-0 in his last five postseason starts while allowing just three hits in 17.2 innings of work. Lost in yet another Rangers' win on Monday was the offense cooling off over the final six innings. In fact, the Astros bullpen has been nearly un-hittable in the series and has yet to allow a run in two games. Unfortunately, Houston hasn't been able to combine their offense with their pitching yet in the series. The Astros are under .500 on the season at home this year but have the best road record in baseball. |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys -135 v. Chargers | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 59 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Prescott is 4-1 SUATS under the Monday Night lights. He is also 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in games when the Boys are coming off a spread loss of more than 17 points. Meanwhile, Dallas is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games when coming off a loss, as well as 5-0 SUATS away on Mondays when coming off a loss of 14 or more points. And we didn’t even mention the team’s 18-8 SU and 19-6-1 ATS mark in away games when coming off an away game, including 9-1 SUATS when coming off a setback. The Chargers check in just 1-4 SUATS on Mondays when coming off a Bye and 1-5-1 ATS coming off a SUATS win when hosting non-division opponents foes coming off a loss. Finally, the Cowboys’ defense is 112 YPG better than the Bolts, and that’s what figures to decide this contest. |
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10-16-23 | Diamondbacks +152 v. Phillies | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Arizona Diamondbacks are enjoying an incredible run, winning all five playoff games and doing so against division winners. They swept Milwaukee and easily swept the Dodgers by outscoring them 19-6. Arizona is known for the hitting but the pitching has been incredible, allowing three or fewer runs in all five postseason games. D-Backs’ starter Zac Gallen limited the Brewers and Dodgers to just two runs spanning 11.1 innings in this postseason. Gallen has dominated the Phillies throughout his career, sporting a dazzling 2.22 ERA and a 3-1 record in 24.1 innings. While the Phillies have also been dominant, Arizona scored four runs against Wheeler in the first meeting this season. Arizona has won all four playoff road games. |
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10-16-23 | Rangers v. Astros -118 | 5-4 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The numbers heading into game two point in many ways to the Rangers taking a 2-0 lead in this series. They have won six straight games, Nathan Eovaldi is 2-0 in the playoffs, and the Astros are now four games under .500 at home this season. Intangibles still count for something, but I will back this Astros team coming off a World Series title and making their seventh straight appearance in the ALCS. Houston turns to lefty Framber Valdez in game two and, while the lefty is just 1-2 against the Rangers this season and 0-1 in this postseason, his career mark of 7-3 in the playoffs proves he is a big-game pitcher. On Monday afternoon, Valdez will need to be all that and more against the Rangers. One thing to note from Sunday night's game is the Rangers' quiet night at the plate. The Rangers have been notoriously streaky at the plate and were quiet in game one with just six hits. The Astros' bats were equally quiet in game one but watch out for a big night from Yordan Alvarez. Alvarez is hitting .714 in his career vs. Eovaldi including a home run and a double with 3 RBI. Kyle Tucker, who has struggled in the playoffs, is hitting .333 with a home run in his career vs. Eovaldi. Lastly, Houston should have Michael Brantley in at DH vs. Eovaldi and he has a home run and five RBI in his career against the veteran Rangers' righty. I expect the Astros' heavy hitters to lead the way this afternoon and help tie this series up. |
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10-15-23 | Giants +15.5 v. Bills | 9-14 | Win | 100 | 34 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The bottom line tonight, though, is we can’t lay a number like this with a team that played in London last week. And not when NFL Sunday Night home favorites of 7 or more points are just 12-22-1 ATS against non-division foes. The Giants allow 5.3 Yards Per Rush while the Bills permit 5.8 Yards Per Rush. We realize this matchup doesn't necessarily pass the smell test but forget about that and instead focus on the fact that NFL .600 or greater teams returning from London, coming off a SUATS loss, are 0-5 SUATS all-time. |
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10-15-23 | Rangers v. Astros -131 | 2-0 | Loss | -131 | 35 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the regular season can't be used as a full barometer of things to come, the Astros did take nine of the 13 meetings between the two teams this season. More importantly, the Astros closed with wins in seven of their final eight games against the Rangers. Houston pounded out a whopping 30 home runs against the Rangers in the 13 games including 25 in the last seven meetings. The Astros' power surge has continued in the playoffs with 10 home runs in the four-game series with Minnesota. The addition of former MVP Abreu seemed to be a modest one for much of the season but he has caught fire in the postseason with three home runs in his last two games and should be chomping at the bit to face the left-handed Montgomery. The Rangers will not be lacking in offense either, however, as they rank first in the playoffs with six runs per game after finishing third overall during the regular season. The big edge for Houston in this game and this series is in the bullpen. While Texas has the fourth-best bullpen ERA in the playoffs, they have not been put into too many high-leverage situations thus far and the team has relied on manager Bochy to cobble together pitchers in the late innings. During the regular season, that was very apparent with Texas' bullpen ranking 24th in ERA in baseball. The Astros bullpen, while lacking any left-handed arms, is well constructed and roles are well defined. Houston finished the regular season with the league's sixth-best bullpen ERA and it was their bullpen that carried them to the World Series last season. Closer Ryan Pressley is a perfect 13-of-13 in save chances in the postseason in his career. Verlander can and will at least match Montgomery in innings in the opener and hand the ball over to a more capable bullpen. |
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10-15-23 | Colts +4.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Jacksonville is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as home favorites behind QB Trevor Lawrence. Game Six of the season has been more like a devilish 6-6-6 to the Jags as they are 1-12 SU in Game Six the last 13 years, including 0-6 ATS at home. That’s chock full of bad numbers, if ever there were any. If you think those bad numbers, consider that Jacksonville is 2-14 SU and 1-15 ATS as a favorite if it was an underdog in its previous game! |
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10-15-23 | Panthers v. Dolphins -14 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Panthers are 3-44 SU and 9-36-2 ATS in games in which they surrender 17 or more points, including 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS versus AFC foes. It’s been a rough start for Carolina QB Bryce Young, the top overall pick in last year’s NFL draft. He ranks No. 32 overall – last overall among the league’s starting quarterbacks – with a 28.6 QBR. Miami’s 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS record in games where they are coming off an ATS win when taking on foes coming off an ATS loss sets the table. Carolina’s 1-6 ATS all-time mark in this series seals the deal. |
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10-15-23 | Vikings -155 v. Bears | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This contest finds Minnesota coming off a loss while the Bears enter off a win. That fits Minny’s M.O. as they are 7-2 ATS in games when coming off a home dog loss. They are also 9-2 ATS versus opponents that scored 40+ points in their last game. Chicago got off the schneid in a dramatic way last Thursday with a 40-20 upset win over Washington, but they are only 2-8 SUATS in games when scoring a victory in its previous game, as well as 3-7 ATS after posting 40+ points. With Da Bears 1-9 ATS in their last ten division home games and having allowed season high yards in three of their last four games, it's the Vikings day today. |
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10-15-23 | Ravens -4 v. Titans | Top | 24-16 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Titans gained 400 yards two weeks ago facing the Bengals and then another 347 this past weekend. It appears the offense has come alive, but the defense yielded a season-high 429 yards in last week’s loss at Indianapolis. With NFL teams who are dining on tea and crumpets 6-1 ATS as favorites when arriving here off a SU favorite loss, we take added solace in knowing Jackson is 24-11 SU and 22-11-2 ATS away from home with the Ravens, including 4-0-2 ATS when coming off a loss. Finally, Tennessee is 1-13-1 ATS as either a favorite or a dog of 5 or fewer points versus AFC North opponents. |
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10-14-23 | Miami-FL +4 v. North Carolina | Top | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 24 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units UM is better than last year’s brutally disappointing squad and the Canes are one of 16 teams unbeaten In the Stats; of course UNC is also one of the 16 but the Tar Heels are a sticky 3-7 ATS in the second of three straight home games. Mack Brown’s team is 5-0, and he could have been joined by Mario Cristobal’s Canes, who instead are 4-1. Finally, UNC is 4-11 SU and 1-14 ATS when coming off a conference home game, including 0-9 ATS as the favorite. |
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10-14-23 | Marshall +1.5 v. Georgia State | 24-41 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Herd stepped up in class last weekend and nearly shocked NC State so stepping back into conference play should be a little easier, even though Georgia State is 9-0 ATS in games when last week’s opponent was a dog. Downtown Atlanta’s Team may be 4-1 overall but 2-3 In the Stats and 0-3 at home since 2020 when coming off a home loss. Marshall remains a rugged defensive presence, made all the tougher by the Herd’s 7-2-1 ATS away mark when coming off one-loss-exact, backed up by 4-0 ATS when not laying 3 points or more. Finally, teams in Game 6 coming off one loss are 20-4-1 ATS. |
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10-14-23 | Louisville v. Pittsburgh +7.5 | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 73 h 9 m | Show |
ACC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Panthers rush defense is best in the nation. In this series, Pitt is 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS plus 8-1 ATS coming off a conference game. The Panthers are 9-4 ATS as a dog coming off a SU favorite loss, including 3-0 ATS at home. Finally, playing against any college football favorite who defeated Notre Dame as an underdog in its last game if they beat the spread by 10 or more points in the win and they are facing a .600 or fewer opponent is 14-0-1 ATS. |
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10-14-23 | Oregon +3 v. Washington | 33-36 | Push | 0 | 70 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Huskies are just 16-30 ATS in Pac-12 games since 2017, including 8-17 ATS at home. Looking deeper, Washington has failed to cover in their last five games with rest, are 0-4 ATS in Game Six and just 2-6 versus conference revenge. That payback factor was put in place last season when Oregon lost 37-34 as 12-point home chalk to the Huskies in 2022, the first time the Ducks did not cover in this series since Willie Taggart was head coach. Meanwhile, great numbers abide for the Quack Attack: 6-0 ATS in Game Six, 4-1 coming off a conference win of more than 35 points, 5-2 against the spread with rest and 7-1 ATS when coming off consecutive wins as a favorite. Finally, look at their sparkling 8-2 SUATS mark in the last ten Pac-12 games. |
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10-14-23 | Indiana v. Michigan -32.5 | 7-52 | Win | 100 | 66 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Michigan is 5-0 ATS record at home off consecutive road games, and a near perfect 8-1 ATS success off a road win. Indiana has won only 8 of its last 21 games under soon-to-be-fired head coach Tom Allen and despite the exorbitant spread on today’s game, we can’t back a squad that’s gone 1-7 ATS in their last eight tries as a road dog. |
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10-14-23 | Syracuse +18 v. Florida State | 3-41 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Syracuse is 6-1 ATS in the last seven away versus an undefeated conference opponent, and the series visitor has cashed four of the last six tickets. Yes, FSU’s offense is scary as hell, but the garnet-and-gold is just 2-7 ATS off a win versus a foe off a loss and 2-5 ATS in the second of 3 straight homers. They’re also just 3-2 ITS (In The Stats) behind a defense that surrenders 364 YPG. Finally, the Syracuse HC is 15-6 ATS away in his career against opponents coming off a win, including 5-0 ATS with revenge against foes coming off a win of 20+ points. |
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10-12-23 | Broncos v. Chiefs -10 | 8-19 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let’s face it: the Broncos' defense is literally nonexistent at this point of the season. In the last two weeks, they surrendered 28 points to the Bears and 31 to the Jets, a pair of teams that no one was going to confuse with a top-five offense in the league. Facing a Kansas City team that hasn’t necessarily hit their stride offensively is going to be a tough hill for the Broncos to climb. The Chiefs have performed well defensively, though they admittedly haven’t faced a Murderer’s Row of offenses to this point of the season. Denver’s last win against the Chiefs came back in September 2015 and they haven’t held Kansas City under 22 points in any of the games in this 15-game skid. Since Denver’s defense is so leaky right now, you have to think that Kansas City rolls up 30-plus points here to earn a home victory, extending their dominance in the series. |
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10-12-23 | West Virginia v. Houston +3 | 39-41 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units West Virginia has been out-yarded in its last two victories, both as underdogs, so taking them as road chalk seems like a stretch. Almost Heaven is also just 1-6 ATS off a win versus foe off a loss, and coach Brown is 13-20-2 ATS against .400 or fewer foes, including 6-12-1 ATS when coming off a win. Looking inside Houston’s 49-28 most recent loss at Texas Tech two weeks ago, the Cougs won the stat battle, 489-400. But with Texas on deck, Holgo needs this win. Finally, playing against any college football team coming off three consecutive revenge wins in a row if they are facing a .400 or greater foe when a favorite are 18-35-1 ATS, including 8-27-1 ATS when coming off an ATS win of more than 8 points. Additionally, these teams fall to 2-20 ATS when facing foes that won 6 or more games the previous season. |
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10-11-23 | Astros +111 v. Twins | 3-2 | Win | 111 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston has been reliable in big spots, while Minnesota is finally feeling like a winner again. That doesn't work in the Twins' favor today, even at home. I'm betting on the Astros to win straight-up! A lot has been made about Houston's game-four starter, but not enough has been said about Ryan's inexperience and lack of success post-All-Star weekend. The young right-hander appeared to be an ace earlier this season but was a shell of himself in the second half. He was roughed up in his last start and didn't pitch in the Twins' Wild Card round despite being next up in the rotation. I doubt that boosted his ego — now he gets to face the defending champs in a much more important game. If Houston's starter lasts five or six innings, that will be a victory. At the end of the day, though, the onus is on the Astros' lineup to come up clutch. Early run production will be crucial, as well. The same pieces are in place that led this ballclub to a World Series title in 2022 — now it's time to do it again. |
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10-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -150 | 4-2 | Loss | -150 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Game one was a surprising result but this is a veteran Dodgers squad who won’t be rattled. Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen was not able to contain the Dodgers this season. The veteran squandered five runs in 4.2 innings in the first meeting and six runs in 5.1 innings in the second one. The Dodgers bashed four home runs against him. Dodgers’ starter Bobby Miller shut down the Diamondbacks this season, conceding just four runs in 12 innings. The Dodgers won those games by 2-0 and 7-4 scores. Miller posted a solid 3.21 ERA in August and a 3.57 ERA in September. This is a must-win game for the Dodgers and I expect the veteran squad to come through with a convincing home win. |
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10-09-23 | Packers +2.5 v. Raiders | 13-17 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’re looking at a pair of teams that have their fair share of questions that lack clear-cut answers. Green Bay is trying to find their run game as they have struggled to move the chains in that regard. Las Vegas has a similar situation as they are dead last in rushing yards per game this season. In addition, the hope is that Garoppolo will be able to play after missing last week with a concussion. O’Connell was decent in his NFL debut but was sacked seven times, six by former Raider Khalil Mack. The Packers have the better team right now and it’s tough to have faith in the Raiders given their problems on both sides of the ball. Take Green Bay on the road in this contest. |
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10-08-23 | Twins +120 v. Astros | 6-2 | Win | 120 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units López continued to impress in the postseason after holding nine of his last 11 opponents to three or fewer runs. He's part of a Twins rotation that led the big leagues in Ks, and he had better walk numbers than his counterpart Valdez. He and the Minnesota bullpen possess the high-octane stuff that will make life difficult for Houston in game two. Valdez wasn't a reliable pitcher in the second half of the season, surrendering ten runs (nine earned) and eight walks in his last two outings. He gave up four-plus runs in nine of his last 16 appearances and walked two or more batters in 11 of those starts. The southpaw also gave up a career-high 19 home runs this year. That will be problematic against Minnesota (AL-leading 233 long balls). |
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10-08-23 | Jets +2.5 v. Broncos | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Denver ranks dead last in overall defense while being out statted -128 net yards per game. They also allow foes to chew them up on the ground, surrendering 5.6 Yards Per Rush. Finally, the Broncos are 1-14 ATS as a favorite if they were a favorite in their previous game, including 0-12 ATS when they have at least one loss on the season. |
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10-08-23 | Rangers v. Orioles -111 | 11-8 | Loss | -111 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles are in a tough spot here with Montgomery taking the hill for the Rangers today. Montgomery has been outstanding in his last five starts with an ERA under one in that span. He has also gone at least seven innings in four of those five starts. He will, however, face an Orioles team that now has their legs under them after Saturday's game. The Orioles have consistently bounced back this season after a loss. The Orioles have had only two losing streaks as long as four games all season. Also, the last time the Rangers faced Rodriguez, he was struggling and soon to be sent to the minor leagues. Since then, he has been a completely different pitcher and has been arguably the team's best pitcher down the stretch. His K/9 rate is over ten in his last five starts which will play well against a Rangers' lineup that has struck out 37 times in the last three games. The Orioles lineup, while struggling to produce runs in the opener, did earn five walks and worked the pitch count. The Rangers burned through six pitchers on Saturday and the Orioles will continue to try to work counts and get Montgomery out prior to the seventh. I like the Orioles' chances the second time around against the Rangers' bullpen. |
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10-08-23 | Eagles v. Rams +4.5 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Rams come in with a 6-1 ATS mark in games when both teams are coming off wins as favorites. Philly tends to falter in games against the NFC West, going 9-16 SU and 8-17 ATS in the past 25 contests. When the 2-2 Rams get Cooper Kupp back, it will be a scary tandem alongside rookie Puka Nacua. Nacua had another monster game after totaling 25 catches for 266 yards over the first two weeks, notching nine receptions for 163 yards last Sunday in Los Angeles’ overtime win at Indianapolis. Finally, playing against the defending Super Bowl loser from Game 5 out as an away favorite of fewer than 7 points in a non-division game versus a .333 or greater opponent is 16-1 ATS. |
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10-08-23 | Bengals v. Cardinals +3.5 | 34-20 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Arizona QB Josh Dobbs has sparked the Cardinals’ attack. They’re 3-1 ATS behind him; they beat the Cowboys as a double-digit dog, and they were within five points of the mighty 49ers at the start of the fourth quarter last week. In fact, his final two passes of the game last week were dropped touchdown passes that went right through the hands of two receivers in the end zone. Finally, the Bengals are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games against the NFC West. |
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10-08-23 | Saints v. Patriots -118 | Top | 34-0 | Loss | -118 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week |
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10-07-23 | Notre Dame -6 v. Louisville | 20-33 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Fighting Irish have a 10-0 SUATS win streak against the ACC, including 6-0 SUATS under head coach Marcus Freeman with an average winning margin of 19.5 PPG. Yes, the Cardinals are a perfect 5-0 this season but they’re a weak 1-3 ATS versus FBS opponents in 2023. Worse, they’re 1-9 ATS after NC State, 1-5 ATS after a Weekday road game, and 3-7 ATS as home dogs of 14 or fewer points. Surprisingly, the stat yards and numbers are close to identical for these two: Notre Dame rushes for 192.2 YPG while Louie rushes for 192.8 YPG, etc. But the Irish are an impressive 17-2 SU and 15-4 away off an away game. |
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10-07-23 | Kentucky +14.5 v. Georgia | 13-51 | Loss | -104 | 75 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Georgia has gone 0-4 ATS in the last four series meetings with Kentucky and some chinks in the Bulldogs’ armor have been exposed versus SEC competition in 2023. Kentucky is 14-1 ATS when coming off a home game and facing a foe coming off an away game. In addition, UK is 8-1 ATS off a win versus an opponent coming off a win and 5-1 ATS as conference dogs of 14 or more points. Finally Kentucky is 15-3 ATS with conference revenge the past six seasons, including 7-0 ATS when the Wildcats are undefeated. |
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10-07-23 | Colorado v. Arizona State +4.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 75 h 33 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Colorado has been outscored 90-28 in the first half of their last three games. The Buffs are also 1-8 ATS when coming off a home loss. Meanwhile, the Arizona State owns the better defense by 136 YPG and are also 9-0 ATS at home in Game Six of the season. They are also 17-9 ATS as a conference home dog, including 13-4 ATS when coming off a loss. Finally, Arizona State is 9-0 ATS as a home dog when both teams are coming off a loss and they are hosting an opponent that allows 23 or more points per game. |
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10-07-23 | Twins v. Astros -145 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a must-win game for Houston, as the Twins are confident and eager to get back home. Stealing a game at Minute Maid Park would be huge for a Minnesota team that fed off the Target Field crowd last series. With that said, I believe the Astros' experience will speak louder than the Twins' passion on Saturday. The acquisition of Verlander put Houston firmly back into the mix in the AL title race, and there's no reason to believe he'll let his team down. The Twins led the AL in home runs, but their offense relies too heavily on the long ball. They also struck out more than any team in baseball this year. Verlander didn't give up a homer in his last three starts after surrendering seven in his first three outings of September. He'll keep the Twins in the yard on Saturday, giving the Astros the quality start they need to win. Minnesota's pitching staff led the league in strikeouts, but Houston's lineup struck out in just 19.8 percent of its ABs this season, the lowest of any team in the postseason. The 'Stros make consistent contact, too, boasting the fifth-lowest whiff rate during the regular season. Ober fanned 17 batters in his last two starts, but those outings were against Oakland and Colorado. The playoff-ready Astros won't make it easy for him or any other Twins pitcher, working their at-bats until they score. |
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10-07-23 | Washington State +3.5 v. UCLA | 17-25 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The red-hot Cougars are 4-0 and averaging over 45 PPG, and 17-0 ATS in games following a SU underdog win since 1993. Meanwhile, after getting shut down by a stifling Utah defense, Chip Kelly has had an extra week to prepare for this explosive Washington State team and will be using his 8th-ranked defense to try and slow down the Cougars, who also had the week off. UCLA is just 2-5 ATS with rest in their last seven in that role and further, are 4-11 ATS in regular season conference games when both teams are coming off a Bye week. WSU head coach Jake Dickert is a rising star, and behind him, we think the Cougars are primed for another upset. |
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10-07-23 | Rangers v. Orioles -129 | 3-2 | Loss | -129 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Late Friday evening, the Rangers named left-hander Andrew Heaney (10-6, 4.15 ERA) their Game 1 starter, while right-hander Kyle Bradish (12-7, 2.83 ERA) will go for Baltimore. Bradish, 27, has been on extended roll. He went 6-1 with a 2.09 ERA in 11 starts during August and September, striking out 73 batters while walking 17 in 64 2/3 innings while holding opposing hitters to a .178 batting average. Including a brief two-inning effort on Sunday, he has thrown 16 consecutive scoreless innings in his past three starts. Orioles pitchers finished fifth in the American League with a 3.89 ERA while the Rangers were 10th at 4.28. Baltimore will be without closer Felix Bautista but still should have the edge in the bullpen, where its relievers pitched to a 3.55 ERA while Texas finished at 4.77. |
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10-07-23 | Central Michigan v. Buffalo +3 | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 69 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Playing on any college football team in Game 6 of the season who lost their first 4 games of the season if they are coming off their initial win, and they are facing a conference foe who won 8 or fewer games last season is 36-19-2 ATS in all games since 1980, including 23-9 ATS when facing .400 or greater opponents. Better yet, if these same teams are coming off a SUATS win of fewer than 13 points they zoom to 17-4 ATS. That’s the role the Buffalo Bulls find themselves in when they host Central Michigan. Best of all, if the team won 4 or more games the previous season they skyrocket to 14-1-1 ATS in this role. |
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10-07-23 | Oklahoma +6.5 v. Texas | Top | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 68 h 9 m | Show |
Big-12 Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Plenty of smart people also know Texas historically underperforms when this is a heavyweight championship fight of undefeated teams. UT is 1-5 SU and 2-5 ATS when both teams are without a blemish (last time was 2011) and for some strange reason, Texas is 1-7 ATS the week before a bye. Finally, as big as Big Tex, the 55-foot statue that greets you in Fair Park: Texas is 4-16 ATS in its last twenty games against avenging conference opponents, including 0-9 ATS away from home. |
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10-06-23 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State +11.5 | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Regardless of the Cowboys’ recent struggles, this is still Mike Gundy country, where the veteran OSU head coach is 22-9 SU and 18-11-1 ATS at home when coming off a loss. Revenge is certainly on the table tonight as well after Kansas State walloped the Pokes last year, 48-0, but while KSU is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 versus Big 12 revenge, that’s where the good news ends for the Wildcats. Head coach Chris Klieman is just 21-25-1 ATS away, including 3-17 SU and 5-14-1 ATS versus .500 or greater foes. Then there’s K-State’s 2-6 SU and 2-5 ATS ledger on Fridays, including 0-4 SUATS against foes coming off a loss. Meanwhile, the series host is on a 5-0 ATS roll, Oklahoma State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games playing with revenge, and 5-1 ATS as a conference home dog. Finally, OSU head coach Mike Gundy is 14-3 SU and 12-4 ATS in games when the Cowboys sport a .500 win-loss record, including 8-1 and 9-0 ATS versus foes with a winning record, as well as 7-0 SU and 5-1 ATS at home. |
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10-05-23 | Bears +6.5 v. Commanders | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both of these squads coming off heartbreakers. What a horrible loss for the Bears to the Broncos. That tied for the biggest blown lead (21 pts) in team history. So now they are 0-4 for the first time since 2000. Justin Fields had a great day (4 TDs/1 INT), D.J. Moore had 8 receptions, 131 yards, & a TD & Kahlil Herbert with 18 carries for 103 yards, but still without a win. Washington will be facing a team which has allowed 25+ pts for an NFL record 14 straight games. The Commanders are 4-1 vs Chicago, but they are only 1-8 as home favorites in October. Finally, Washington is 3-8 ATS at home after a division road game and 3-7 ATS after facing Philadelphia. |
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10-04-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -143 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Phillies' recent playoff experience showed out in game one as they scored four times in the game despite a lack of power against five different Marlins pitchers. Meanwhile, the Marlins continued their postseason playoff run drought. They have now scored just one run in the team's last three postseason games. The Phillies should also have the advantage in game two with the playoff-savvy Nola taking on Marlins' lefty Garrett. Garrett pitched well down the stretch but posted a 5.40 ERA against the Phillies this year and will be pitching in front of a rabid Philadelphia crowd on Wednesday night. While Nola has not been at his best against the Marlins this season, he is not uncomfortable pitching on a big stage after making five postseason starts last season for the Phillies. He started twice in front of the home crowd last postseason and has a 2.70 ERA. The Marlins poured through five pitchers in game one thanks to Luzardo's exit after four innings. If Garrett falters early, the Marlins' bullpen will have trouble duplicating Tuesday night's performance. |