Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-12-21 | Pelicans v. Mavs UNDER 232.5 | 130-143 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
After playing good D for an extended time the Dallas D, has looked a little tattered by has seen a regression to point allowed in their last 3 games, and according to my projections that positive defensive trajectory will continue in this spot vs the Pelicans tonight. Meanwhile, New Orleans has also been playing very good defense with an exception last time out vs Chicago. However, today Im betting on Van Gundy's squad getting back to business and makes sure their transition game and 3 point defense is focused on which will help keep this score on the low side of the total.Van Gundy is 22-9 UNDER after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher in all games he has coached with a combined score of 197 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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02-11-21 | 76ers v. Blazers UNDER 230.5 | 114-118 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
Philadelphia is red hot, and Im betting on the Blazers trying to be more physical with their opponent in an effort to slow them down and take away from their flow. this Im betting results in a lower scoring tilt than the lines makers are expecting. Under is 5-2 in 76ers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Rivers is 37-20 UNDER revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7or more in all games he has coached in his career with a combined average of 197.1 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 30-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-11-21 | Pacers v. Pistons UNDER 219 | 111-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Detroit ranks 23rd in offence behind the 24th ranked pace, while Indiana is ranked middle of the road in all key categories. From a projections stand point my number is closer to 216 which gives us a one possession advantage to the under. NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DETROIT) - after a game where they covered the spread, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 36-15 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (INDIANA) - after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, vs. division opponents are 216- 142 L/24 seasons for a 60% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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02-11-21 | Purdue v. Minnesota OVER 139.5 | 68-71 | Loss | -117 | 1 h 4 m | Show | |
02-10-21 | Cavs v. Nuggets UNDER 223 | 95-133 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
Cleveland runs the 26th ranked pace 10th ranked ppg defence and 29th ranked ppg offence. Here against a side that ranks 28th in pace a much slower grinding game in the high altitudes of the Mile High City is to be expected.
CLEVELAND is 11-3 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 209.9 ppg scored. Bickerstaff is 10-1 UNDER in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game as the coach of CLEVELAND with a combined average of 206.8 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or better) against an average shooting team (43.5-45.5%), after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 32-10 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CLEVELAND) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 44-17 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.Play UNDER |
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02-08-21 | Bucks v. Nuggets UNDER 234 | 125-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
The Bucks are know for their offense but their defense is ranked 8th in defensive efficiency and will be key here tonight in the Mile High City vs the Nuggets. Meanwhile, Denver is ranked 28th in pace, and will be prepared to grind away here in an effort to slow down the Bucks. MILWAUKEE is 11-1 UNDER off a road blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons which was the case last time out vs Cleveland in a 124-99 victory. The average combined score of those 12 games rings in at 219 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 38-11 UNDER 24 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 77-37 L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
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02-08-21 | Canucks v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | 1-3 | Win | 102 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
The Canucks have surrendered 23 goals during their current four-game losing skid.QUOTE: "We're a disconnected group right now and it's showing. It's frustrating," Vancouver goaltender Braden Holtby said. "If we want to be a good team, we've got to have everyone pulling the same rope. And that's what we work towards from now on." END QUOTE: Now I expect the Canucks to make a concerted effort to play a better brand of defensive hockey that will focus attention to transition, which Im betting will result in a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. TORONTO is 7-1 UNDER in home games after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons which was the case in a 5-1 victory vs the Canucks on Saturday night. NHL Road teams against the total (VANCOUVER) - after allowing 3 goals or more 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 5 goals or more in 2 straight games are 31-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82%. conversion rate for bettors. Play on Under |
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02-07-21 | Iowa v. Indiana UNDER 152 | 65-67 | Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show | |
My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. |
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02-06-21 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans UNDER 227 | 109-118 | Push | 0 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies calling card and success and or failures are centered around a 7th ranked ppg defense. With the offense ranked just 22nd in the NBA its obvious Memphis will be out to center their attention on slowing this game down and Im betting that wont be a problem against a tired New Orleans side that played a hard fought game last night in a one point win. These projections on the style play and energy flow have me taking an under stance. MEMPHIS is 9-1 UNDER off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MEMPHIS) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 43-20 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW ORLEANS) - after having won 2 of their last 3 games, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 92-53 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-06-21 | Jackson State v. Alcorn State OVER 135 | 74-66 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. |
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02-05-21 | Celtics v. Clippers UNDER 219.5 | 119-115 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
Im betting these two top tier teams take part in a post season style game that focuses on defence with special attention paid to the transition game. Boston ranks 9th in ppg allowed in the league and the Clippers ranks 4th.Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings in Los Angeles. Play UNDER |
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02-05-21 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 228.5 | 95-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Washingtons offense despite of their run and gun reputation have been quite inconsistent lately with their output numbers. In 5 of their L/7 games, they have scored 101,88, 106, 100, and 103 points. There were two offensive explosions, but those were against Brooklyn and Atlanta two teams that like to run and gun like them. Tonight Im betting their offensive output will once again be curtailed by a Heat side that ranks 23rd in pace and 26th in offensive production. This will contribute to this tilt staying on the low side of the number. Note. These teams played on Wednesday night with a 103-100 final score. Rinse and repeat scenario now on board. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MIAMI) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival are 23-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (WASHINGTON) - tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%) are 45-15 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-05-21 | Raptors v. Nets UNDER 242 | 123-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Since the Harden trade and his subsequent debut, the Nets are averaging 127 points on 51.8 percent shooting. They shot 57 percent Tuesday. However, as we all know those numbers are not sustainable, especially against a veteran team like Toronto that knows how to slow games down and turning them into grinding affairs. Thus Im betting that this combined score will remain on the low side of the total. TORONTO is 22-8 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Nurse in all 8 of his road games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better of their shots as the coach of TORONTO has seen a combined score of 215.2 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 115 points or more are 30-10 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a combined score of 215 points or more are 71-28 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (TORONTO) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points are 32-9 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-05-21 | Bucks v. Cavs UNDER 227 | 123-105 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
My projections estimate that Cleveland will not score more than 105 points here tonight while the Bucks should score in the 116 range. Note:MILWAUKEE is 18-2 UNDER when they allow 100 to 105 points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 215.4 ppg going on the board. The L/3 games in this series in Cleveland have gone under the set total and a rinse and repeat situation once again looks like a viable betting opportunity here based on my estimates and the fact that the Cavs own the 6th best ppg defense in the NBA and the 29th ranked pace. Play UNDER |
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02-04-21 | Nuggets v. Lakers OVER 216 | 93-114 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Denver offence is clicking and Im betting they push the Lakers into a uptempo game here and make the champs work extra hard in this tilt. DENVER is 20-6 OVER after scoring 120 points or more over the last 2 seasons and is is 12-3 OVER in road games after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games over the last 2 seasons |
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02-04-21 | Rockets v. Grizzlies UNDER 224 | 115-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Memphis had their 7 game win steak snapped last time out by Indiana in a high scoring 134-116 event . I blame that down effort by the Grizzlies on their defence, which might of suffered because of tired legs on a rigorous schedule. The win streak was complimented by top tier defence, and now Im betting the Grizzlies returning to what made them successful here and that Im also betting contributes to this tilt staying on the low side of the total. Play UNDER |
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02-03-21 | Celtics v. Kings UNDER 226.5 | 111-116 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Sacramento has played well lately winning 3 of their L/5 with one loss by 1 point 96-95 , and Im attributing their recent success to playing good defense. Meanwhile, Boston is also playing top tier defensive hoops and ranking 8th in ppg defense. More of the same from both tonight. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - average free throw shooting team (72-76%) against a poor free throw shooting team (69-72%), good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (14.5 or less TO's) are 26-7 UNDER L/ 24 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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02-03-21 | Suns v. Pelicans UNDER 223.5 | 101-123 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
Phoenix ranks fifth in defensive efficiency and are good at cutting down on opponents downtown shooting, thus making them play inside the arc in the paint. Meanwhile, the Pelicans play a similar style of D, but are horrendous on offence and could easily be suffocated by a Suns side that is starting to get healthy. On the flip-side the Suns are inconsistent offensively, and dont get to the charity stripe often, ranking 2nd in FT attempts. These kinds of systems when I make a total projection shows value to the under. PHOENIX is 17-7 UNDER in road games versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.PHOENIX is 15-4 UNDER in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons.PHOENIX is 20-9 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons. Play UNDER |
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02-03-21 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 233 | 110-130 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Indiana has been struggling to score and than suddenly last time out, they popped 134 points on 59.7% shooting against the Grizzlies, and now I expect a regression to the norm on tired legs in back to back games. This Im betting directly alters projections and gives us value on the under. INDIANA is 22-8 UNDER after a combined score of 245 points or more and s14-3 UNDER after scoring 130 points or more. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (INDIANA) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout win by 20 points or more are 29-6 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 120 points or more are 31-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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02-02-21 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 227.5 | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Boston ranks 8th in defense ppg against and is the cornerstone of their successes and failures and nothing with change tonight vs the explosive Curry and the Warriors. The Celtics defensive posture and ability to control flow will lead to this being a lower scoring game than the linesmakers estimates. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BOSTON) - good shooting team - shooting 46% or more on the season against opponent after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are 28-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 70-33 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-02-21 | Clippers v. Nets UNDER 242.5 | 120-124 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
The Los Angeles Clippers and Brooklyn Nets possess a great deal of offensive explosiveness . But one team the Clippers owns the better defence (4th in NBA ppg allowed), and has the abilities to slow down the other side behind the 27th ranked pace , and limit their potent attack. The Nets will want to run and gun, but Im betting the Clippers will not be dragged into that type of game and instead play stoppers here tonight against a undisciplined side, which according to my projections sets up for a combined score that does not eclipse this total. LA CLIPPERS are 22-9 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. |
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02-01-21 | Grizzlies v. Spurs UNDER 220.5 | 133-102 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Memphis thanks to some very strong defensive play have won 7 games in a row and now on tired legs as they play their 2nd game in 2 nights, Im betting them and their opponents the Spurs will take part in a more subdued less aggressive offensive affair. MEMPHIS is 8-0 UNDER off a win by 15 points or more as an underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 208.5 ppg. SAN ANTONIO is 8-0 UNDER in home games off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 213.6 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MEMPHIS) - extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 70-39 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 64% conversion rate. NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (MEMPHIS) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 30-9 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. Play on the under |
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02-01-21 | Knicks v. Bulls UNDER 218 | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
NYK in their 20 games this season have seen a combined average of 204.3 ppg scored behind a 30th ranked last place pace and the worst ppg offense in the NBA also ranked 30th. To me this tells me they have had more control of the speed of the game than their opponents, and Im betting despite of the Bulls wanting to run they wont have their way and we see a lower scoring tilt then the lines-makers might expect. NEW YORK is 13-4 UNDER versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season with a combined average of 201.1 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 18-6 UNDER in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 204.5 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (NEW YORK) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 34-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-01-21 | Hornets v. Heat UNDER 217 | 129-121 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 18 m | Show | |
Based on my projections this game has value on a under wager. (Late Steam) NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHARLOTTE) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team aren30-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-31-21 | Nets v. Wizards UNDER 244.5 | 146-149 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Both these sides style of play obviously leans towards a high scoring affair, but the number according to my projections is just to high, and should be closer to 239 which gives us some obvious value to the under with an almost 2 possession divergence. The Nets have not gone over the total in 12 straight games with rest coming off a road win where they had 30+ assists.Under is 8-2 in Nets last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Washington. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better) against an average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%), hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or kore of their shots are 30-6 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-30-21 | Rockets v. Pelicans UNDER 223 | 126-112 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
My projections give us value with an under wager here in this matchup which says this Total should be closer to 219 which makes this a full ;possession divergence. HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER after playing a home game this season. HOUSTON is 11-3 UNDER versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season with a combined average of 216.2 ppg going on the board. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (NEW ORLEANS) - vs. division opponents, off 2 or more consecutive home wins are 38-14 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-29-21 | Nets v. Thunder UNDER 232.5 | 147-125 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
There is now way Oklahoma City can compete in a run and gun affair and that is why Im betting they do everything with their power to slow this game down, which Im betting results in a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-12 UNDER when the total is 220 to 232.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.7 ppg scored. |
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01-28-21 | Warriors v. Suns UNDER 220.5 | 93-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Both sides are unrested and Im expecting a slower more deliberate game than many might expect. The Warriors have seen the L/6 meetings vs the Suns stay under the set total and have gone under in 8 of their L/9 as division road dogs and have also seen 6 of their L/7 away games stay under vs unrested foes . Mean while, the Suns have gone under 9 straight times as division chalk including 5 straight vs unrested division opposition. NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 220.5 (PHOENIX) - after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 90-51 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-27-21 | Pistons v. Cavs UNDER 214 | 107-122 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
01-25-21 | Celtics v. Bulls UNDER 228 | 119-103 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
Boston really shot the lights out last time out in a 141-103 win vs the Cleveland Cavaliers and now a natural offensive regression is in the cards. This in itself will help contribute to this tilts combined score staying on the low side of the total. Note: BOSTON is 29-11 UNDER after a huge blowout win by 30 or more since 1996 with a combined 191.3 ppg scored. |
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01-25-21 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State UNDER 145.5 | 81-60 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. |
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01-25-21 | Hornets v. Magic UNDER 213.5 | 108-117 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
The pace and matchup comparisons suggest a score that stays on the low side of the number as was the case last night in a 107-104 Charlotte win. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (ORLANDO) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, with a losing record are 25-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHARLOTTE) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 30-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-24-21 | Hornets v. Magic UNDER 214.5 | 107-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHARLOTTE) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 33-10 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. |
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01-24-21 | Thunder v. Clippers UNDER 222.5 | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City is ranked 27th in ppg offense to this point in the season, and are now dealing with the fact they are not a offensive juggernaut and must learn to slow down teams in transition, which Im sure is the game plan tonight. This Im betting results in a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers have projected. OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-11 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons OKLAHOMA CITY is 90-62 UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70%or better with a combined average of 204.7 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 32-16 UNDER as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.6 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - a very good team (7 or more PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG differential) are 45-19 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 70% for conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 36-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-23-21 | Lakers v. Bulls UNDER 227 | 101-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
After a hard fought win vs Milwaukee last time out by the Lakers, Im betting on a bit of an emotional letdown situation here vs Chicago tonight, which will see the Lakers start slower than usual, and that will in turn effect the early flow of this game and subsequently the combined score that will end up to be lower than the number expected by the linesmakers. LA LAKERS are 10-1 UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots over the last 3 seasons. LA LAKERS are 7-0 UNDER in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season. LA LAKERS are 7-0 UNDER in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season. Vogel is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game as the coach of LA LAKERS with a combined average of 210.6 ppg scored. |
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01-23-21 | Heat v. Nets UNDER 232 | 124-128 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
The Nets are having some defensive issues and I expect them to ficus on correcting some of their issues Saturday night when they host the shorthanded Miami Heat. The Heat will be effected by a lack of cohesiveness because of their lack of a full compliment of players, This Im betting effect the score of this tilt to the low side of the number. Spoelstra is 135-103 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of MIAMI with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 201.1 ppg . |
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01-22-21 | Mavs v. Spurs UNDER 222.5 | 122-117 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
The Mavs enter this game ranked 6th in ppg allowed defence, and 22nd in offensive output, behind the 22nd ranked pace. Needless to say they are playing a deliberate conservative style of hoops, that has coincidently resulted in unders cashing for bettors in 9 of their L/12 trips to the hardwood, including going Under is 10-4 in Mavericks last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Meanwhile, San Antonio is ranked. middle of the pack, ranking 17th in offensive output and 11th in defensive rating . Note:Defensive Rating (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 possessions. The Spurs have also been in a under groove going 5-1 to the low side of the number L/6 trips to the court. Considering both teams current form, Ill bet and recommend we take a lower scoring stance here.Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings. Play UNDER |
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01-22-21 | North Dakota v. South Dakota State UNDER 143.5 | 73-92 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
01-22-21 | Celtics v. 76ers OVER 222 | 110-122 | Win | 101 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
HC Nurse said his team's defense was at its worst of the season "times three" in the game and Im betting things dont get better here tonight in a game that is more wide open than the pundits might expect.
Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 overall.
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01-20-21 | Kings v. Clippers UNDER 232 | 96-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
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01-20-21 | Magic v. Wolves OVER 217 | 97-96 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Over is 6-0 in Magic last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Over is 8-1-1 in Magic last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Over is 7-1-1 in Magic last 9 games as a road favorite. The Timberwolves are 14-0 OVER L/14 at home after they had 3 or fewer double digit scorers last game with every game in the subset eclipsing this total with a combined average of 234.4 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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01-18-21 | Sharks v. Blues UNDER 6 | 4-5 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
The Sharks lost 5-3 last time out to the Arizona Coyotes and will now be out to play a better brand of defensive hockey in a bounce back situation. The same holds true for the St.Louis Blues who were smashed by a 8-0 count last time out vs Colorado. SAN JOSE is 15-1 UNDER after allowing 5 goals or more over the last 2 seasons. Another interesting anomaly has the Under going 10-1 in Blues last 11 Monday tilts. Play UNDER |
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01-18-21 | Rockets v. Bulls UNDER 226.5 | 120-125 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.5 ppg scored and enter this game on a current 8 game streak of unders. Rinse and repeat here despite of a partially revamped new lineup. |
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01-18-21 | Bucks v. Nets UNDER 238.5 | 123-125 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
Yes, both these sides can light it up , but according to my Totals projection , the number should be closer to 234 , so with a full possession plus avaialble Im recommedning we take an under stance on a public line. Under is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 games as a favorite.
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01-17-21 | Pacers v. Clippers UNDER 220 | 96-129 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
The Pacers are are at the tail end of a 4 game west coast road trip, and will be prepared to pace themselves here vs a LA Clippers side that is well aware of their oppositions prowess. Im betting on a offensive regression to the norm for the Clippers after running and gunning for 138 points last time out vs the Kings in a lopsided win. |
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01-17-21 | Pelicans v. Kings UNDER 228.5 | 128-123 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
The Pelicans for the most part have payed attention to their defense and rank 7th in the league in ppg allowed while operating a pace that ranks 26th in the NBA. Here on the road Im betting on more disciplined hoops vs a Sacramento Kings group that plays has shown very little discipline of late .Also is the case with Van Gundy coached sides a consistent persistence on not losing control of the speed of game will continue to be implemented . This Im betting leads to a lower scoring game than the pundits might expect. Under is 5-2 in Pelicans last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Under is 5-1 in Pelicans last 6 road games. |
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01-17-21 | Jazz v. Nuggets UNDER 220 | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
The last 3 meetings in this series here in the Mile High City have been fairly low scoring affakirs and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here in a game that will fail to eclipse the total according to my projections. NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - vs. division opponents, playing with 2 days rest are 82-45 L/24 seasons for a 66% conversion rate. |
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01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs UNDER 57.5 | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show | |
After watching Cleveland take part in a run and gun all out offensive affair last time out, in their win to advance to this game , vs Pittsburgh last week, the pundits and linesmakers have jumped the gun and exaggerated this totals line. However, Im betting on the Browns knowing what they are going up against this week, and stick to their very viable ground game in an attempt to keep explosive Chiefs offense off the field as much as possible, which Im betting results in a lower scoring game than expected. KANSAS CITY is 35-17 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992 with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored. Reid is 21-6 UNDER when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 43.5 ppg scored. Reid is 21-8 UNDER in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 42.4 ppg scored. NFL Road teams against the total (CLEVELAND) - as a #6 seed in the playoffs, playoff game are 23-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. NFL team against the total (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team (265 or more PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 29-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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01-16-21 | Holy Cross v. Colgate UNDER 149.5 | 55-95 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. |
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01-15-21 | Clippers v. Kings UNDER 227.5 | 138-100 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
The L/3 meetings in this series have seen non of the game eclipse this total and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here again tonight. LA CLIPPERS are 12-2 UNDER in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 216.5 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SACRAMENTO) - after allowing 130 points or more against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games are 52-25 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-14-21 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 230 | 104-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
Golden State games have been according to my projections seeing added digits to the totals from the linesmakers , which is showing value to the under. Thanks to those faulty numbers offered by the books we have seen 4 straight Warriors games go under the total. Warriors speedy pace, has influenced the linesmkaers, as has the presence of their super star Curry. However, their off, because of a variation of reasons, and continue to hold value for under bettors. |
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01-13-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Toronto goalie Frederik Andersen, owns a 7-3-2 record and .923 save percentage lifetime against the Canadiens, and after a inconsistent season last year, will be primed to bounce back this season especially this being the last year of his contract. Meanwhile, Price the Habs goalie tonight is also in a contract year and is one of the better goalies in the leauge when hes healthy, and must be respected even here against a high powered offence. Under is 8-1 in Canadiens last 9 vs. Atlantic.Under is 6-1 in Canadiens last 7 games as a road underdog.Under is 6-1 in Canadiens last 7 road games. Under is 5-0 in Maple Leafs last 5 games as a home favorite. Under is 5-0 in Maple Leafs last 5 home games. |
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01-12-21 | Spurs v. Thunder OVER 218 | 112-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Both these sides have been playing top tier hoops of late, with San Antonio winning 3 of their L/4 and the Thunder 4 of their L/5. The Spurs did lose their last game, behind some lackluster shooting, but that has not been the norm for this side, and Im betting on a offensive bounce back performance tonight. Note: The Spurs are 11-0 OVER as a favorite with rest off a road loss with the average combined ppg clicking in at 222.1 ppg. SAN ANTONIO is 13-1 OVER on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 240.7 ppg scored. |
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01-11-21 | Pacers v. Kings UNDER 227 | 122-127 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
Both these teams |
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01-11-21 | Raptors v. Blazers OVER 230 | 111-112 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
The Trailblazers who rank 7th in pace 4th in offence and 25th in ppg games allowed on D, are off a win last time out on the road as a favorite which sets up a strong trend that has seen them go over 10 straight times by an average of more than 22 ppg, with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at at a massive 249.9 ppg. Meanwhile, Toronto now playing in back to back games are on tired legs, and may have issues stopping the run and gun Blazers and will have to open up with some offensive fireworks of their own in what Im betting will be a fairly high scoring affair that eclipses this total. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PORTLAND) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 44-16 OVER L/24 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. |
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01-10-21 | Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 234.5 | 105-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
This total is partly based on the Raptors dismal 3 point defence, but Im betting it will get better as the season progresses, including tonight. The Raptors are playing better lately overall, and have the veterans and coaching needed to know how to handle a Seth Curry lead offence. With that said, Im betting on the Raptors physicality to be in top gear and for the flow of this game to be slower than the number might suggest. Advantage under. |
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01-10-21 | Browns v. Steelers UNDER 47.5 | 48-37 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 40 m | Show | |
01-09-21 | Spurs v. Wolves UNDER 233 | 125-122 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
The Spurs are playing top tier hoops at the moment, and are off two consecutive upset victories. Note: SAN ANTONIO is 13-3 L/16 UNDER off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog with the average combined score of 185.3 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 30-14 UNDER after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 219.6 ppg going on the board. |
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01-09-21 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 43 | 30-20 | Loss | -109 | 93 h 50 m | Show | |
Seattle beat the Rams 20-9 when they met in December and the L/3 most recent meetings in this series saw no more than 40 combined points go on the board . Rinse and repeat here on an under wager, especially considering Rams QB Jared Goff is out or less than 100%.
Seattle went under in 7 of their L/8 games overall, with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in 39.4 ppg.McVay is 8-1 UNDER revenging a road loss against opponent as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 41.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. SEATTLE is 6-0 UNDER vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 42.3 ppg scored. Under is 8-0 in Rams last 8 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - as a #6 seed in the playoffs, playoff game are 23-4 under L/10 seasons . NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (LA RAMS/ SEATTLE) - in the Wild Card round of the playoffs are 36-10 UNDER L/10 seasons.Play UNDER |
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01-08-21 | Jazz v. Bucks UNDER 231.5 | 131-118 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Utahs inconsistent play early on in the season continued last time out, as they lost as -6.5 road favs at NYK last time out. It must be noted UTAH is 28-9 UNDER off a double digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more with a combined average of 191.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. It makes sense as teams who are in this role, look to get back to basics and play a more conservative style of getting back to basics basketball. Few teams try to run and gun with the Bucks, and Im betting the Jazz instead will try to slow things down a bit and play a more phsycial style of hoops which will keep this combined score on the low side of the number. |
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01-08-21 | Suns v. Pistons UNDER 218 | 105-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
The Suns enter this game as the top ppg defence in the NBA, behind the slowest pace. Im betting they dictate the pacde again vs a Detroit team that is trending lower in many categories including offencive rating where they rank 20th. Everything points to this being a lower scoring affair. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a terrible team (25% or less ) are 24-5 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-07-21 | Mavs v. Nuggets UNDER 225 | 124-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
These teams have taken part in some physical grinding affairs of late when they have met and 5 of their L/6 meetings have resulted in the under cashing.Under is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 games as an underdog. Under is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. |
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01-06-21 | Pistons v. Bucks UNDER 226 | 115-130 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
My projections make this total closer to 221, thus giving us value with an under wager. Long term trends suggest a style of play by both sides in this kind of matchup is indicative of a lower trending combined score.
Casey is 14-4 UNDER in road games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days as the coach of DETROIT with a combined average of 206.8 ppg scored. MILWAUKEE is 22-10 UNDER versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 season with the average combined score of those tilts clicking in at 222.8 ppg. DETROIT is 20-8 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 3 seasons at 214.7 ppg.
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01-06-21 | Lamar v. Nicholls State UNDER 144.5 | 69-76 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My College basketball Totals/sides projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Sides/Totals offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.
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01-05-21 | Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 228 | 116-123 | Loss | -111 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
I am betting Denver behind a 28th ranked pace, will dictate this game in the trenches, which will help keep this combined score on the low side of the total. |
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01-05-21 | Jazz v. Nets UNDER 231.5 | 96-130 | Win | 100 | 26 h 59 m | Show | |
Utah runs a pace that ranks 23rd in the NBA and now own the 8th best ppg defence and here tonight Im betting that we have value taking the under here vs a Nets side that has gone under in 7 of their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 like the Jazz. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better against opponent after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 30-6 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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01-04-21 | Thunder v. Heat OVER 215.5 | 90-118 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
I have charted how the Heat have performed recently against sides like Oklahoma City that are having a hard time competing. These following trends give us an indication of a strong factor favoring the over. MIAMI is 16-4 OVER in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.7 ppg scored. MIAMI is 10-1 OVER versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.7 ppg scored. Also MIAMI is 20-6 OVER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 225 ppg going on the board. MIAMI is 13-3 OVER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons. |
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01-04-21 | Cavs v. Magic UNDER 217.5 | 83-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow- thank you for your patience - All NBA wagers come with a full explanation of why and how I came to my conclusions. |
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01-04-21 | Hornets v. 76ers OVER 221.5 | 101-118 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow- thank you for your patience - All NBA wagers come with a full explanation of why and how I came to my conclusions. |
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01-03-21 | Blazers v. Warriors OVER 233.5 | 122-137 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Portland enters this game ranked 9th in offensive output and 23rd in defensive ppg against and 25th in defensive rating. Meanwhile, the Warriors rank 2nd in pace in the league, and 30th in ppg allowed. This current form for both teams sets up for a formula of big offensive numbers going on the board. |
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01-03-21 | Washington Football Team v. Eagles UNDER 44 | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show | |
My projections estimate that this total is closer to 41 points thus giving us value with a under wager. |
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01-03-21 | Jazz v. Spurs OVER 219 | 130-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
My projections have made this game total 224 thus giving us value with an over wager.
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01-03-21 | St. Joe's v. Rhode Island UNDER 153.5 | 77-85 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
Rhode Island plays a top tier brand of defence and has allowed just 62 ppg in 3 home games this season, and nothing will change today against St.Joes. Look for Rhode Island to grind this game down to a crawl and not allow their run and gun opponent to open up. DEFENCE, DEFENCE, DEFENCE and more DEFENCE. Play on the UNDER |
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01-02-21 | Knicks v. Pacers OVER 215 | 106-102 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 38 m | Show | |
My projections estimate that the Pacers will score 112+ points and will force the Knciks to chase . Note: INDIANA is 31-6 OVER when they score 112 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.5 ppg scored. |
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01-02-21 | Kings v. Rockets UNDER 233.5 | 94-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
My projections make this total closer ot 229 thus giving us value with an under wager. |
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01-02-21 | Creighton v. Providence UNDER 146.5 | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 1 h 16 m | Show | |
The Creighton Bluejays just took part in a 66-61 decision over Xavier a little over a week ago, and showed us their defense is not to be underestimated as they held the Musketeers to 35.3 percent field-goal shooting and allowed just five offensive boards. Im betting they will need their D to stand tall, here today as Providence sdie that wont bend defensively as is evident by allowing an average of just 67 ppg in 4 home games. With that said, Im betting on a tough physical fairly low scoring affair between two bitter rivals. |
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati v. Georgia OVER 49.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 195 h 34 m | Show | |
Starting in the past three games, Georgia Bulldogs QB Daniels has thrown for 839 yards, nine touchdowns and an interception in wins over Mississippi State, South Carolina and then-No. 25 Missouri. Georgia averaged 41.6 in those games after the Bulldogs scored at least 40 just once in the previous six games. So needless to say there is new offensive life in the Dawgs bark , and they will give Cincinnati's strong defense their biggest test of the season, according to my projections. Meanwhile, the Bearcats, offense , is led by quarterback Desmond Ridder, the AAC offensive player of the year who has 2,090 passing yards, with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has rushed for 609 yards and a team-high 12 scores and can move the ball against any D in the nation behind an assorted balanced group as Seven Bearcats have at least 186 yards and a touchdown receiving, led by Josh Whyle's 318 yards and five scores. Im betting on alot more points here than the lines-makers are anticipating. CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 38-4 OVER L/5 seasons for 91% conversion rate. Play OVER |
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12-31-20 | Suns v. Jazz OVER 220.5 | 106-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PHOENIX) - poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 or more PPG), after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 44-18 OVER L/24 seasons for an 71% conversion rate. Play OVER |
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12-31-20 | Pelicans v. Thunder UNDER 215.5 | 113-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
The Pelicans enter this tilt vs Oklahoma city ranked last in pace in the league and , 29th in offense and have seen their first 4 games of the season stay under the set total . Meanwhile, OKC when at full strength like they are expected to be tonight are a solid defensive side that must be respected. Under is 7-1 in Pelicans last 8 games as a favorite.Under is 12-2 in Pelicans last 14 overall . Under is 4-0 in Pelicans last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Under is 50-23-1 in Thunder last 74 games as an underdog. |
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12-31-20 | Cavs v. Pacers UNDER 217 | 99-119 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
These two sides just don't push for explosive offensive flow and have shown some conservative style here early this season, especially when attempting shots from downtown ranking bottom six in the league in beyond the arc attempts . Both sides are showing early signs of injury woes, and some key players are hobbled missing in action or less than 100%. Play on the UNDER |
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12-30-20 | Bucks v. Heat UNDER 226.5 | 108-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
On Tuesday night, the Bucks set an NBA record by sinking 29 3-pointers while crushing the Heat 144-97. Tonight in the rematch it will be difficult for the Bucks to exert the same energy while, the Heat will be primed to step up on defence and be more physical, which will translate Im betting into a lower scoring affair than yesterdays combined score. MILWAUKEE is 9-1 UNDER off a road blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.2 ppg going on the board. NBA team (MILWAUKEE) - a very good team (+7 PPG or more differential) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG differential), after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games are 23-5 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate. Play on UNDER |
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12-29-20 | Nuggets v. Kings OVER 224 | 115-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
The two most recents meetings in this series have seen 235 and 246 combined points go on the board and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here in this matchup. Over is 10-2 in Nuggets last 12 games as a road favorite. Over is 7-3 in Kings last 10 games as an underdog. SACRAMENTO is 23-9 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of. 229.8 ppg going on the board.
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12-29-20 | Magic v. Thunder OVER 218 | 118-107 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
My totals number projects at 221 thus giving us value on over wager. Orlando owns the 5th fastest pace early here this season. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City ranks 13th in pace and will be forced into a high energy flow here against a superior side, that can run and push the speed of this game to higher levels. |
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12-29-20 | Bucks v. Heat OVER 225.5 | 144-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
The Bucks, now with two losses in their first three games, would love to get back on track against the Heat side that they have huge revenge against for play off ejection embarrasement. I just dont see the Bucks sitting back and trying to make this into a tight play off style game, and instead will be out looking to run and gun in angry fashion, which will turn this tilt into more wide open tilt than the linesmakers are expecting. MIAMI is 22-11 OVER in home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (MIAMI) - after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 227-114 OVER L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate. |
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12-29-20 | Knicks v. Cavs UNDER 216 | 95-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
From out of nowhere the Knicks came out running andf gunning in their last game and put 130 points on the board in a win vs the Milwaukee Bucks. It must be noted however, that the Under is 23-8-1 in Knicks last 32 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. That would make sense because after that kind of flow a natural letdown should be expected , as I am expecting here tonight vs Cleveland ina tilt Im projecting to stay on the low side of the total. NEW YORK is also 15-4 UNDER L/19 in road games off a double digit win as a underdog of 6 points or more with a combined average of 193.7 ppg scored.
Under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings in Cleveland. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CLEVELAND) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 34-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-29-20 | Celtics v. Pacers UNDER 218.5 | 116-111 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Indiana is a defence first side and nothing will change tonight against top tier opponent Boston. Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 games as a home underdog. Under is 7-1 in Pacers last 8 games as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Celtics play more conservatively on the road behind a solid D, as is evident by the following trends going 9-3-1 UNDER in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. |
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12-29-20 | Bulls v. Wizards OVER 237 | 115-107 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Washington plays a one way type of game, that is based on all out run and gun basketball with little or no consideration for strong defensive play. Its all about entertainment in the new NBA and this is the type of hoops the fan base wants to see. Tonight Im expecting offensive fireworks at both ends of the court and for two defenses Chicago and Washington allowing an average of more than 121 and 125 ppg respectively to be left vulnerable again. Over is 7-2 in Bulls last 9 games as a road underdog.Over is 7-2 in Bulls last 9 road games. WASHINGTON is 10-1 OVER versus good foul drawing teams - attempting 27 or more free throws/game over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 245 ppg going on the board.WASHINGTON is 11-2 OVER versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 244 ppg. Play OVER |
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12-28-20 | Blazers v. Lakers OVER 225 | 115-107 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Both these sides can really light up the scoreboard when in a groove which Im betting both teams are. The Lakers just scored 138 and 127 points respectively in their L/2 trips to the hardwood, while the run and gun Blazers scored 128 points last time out. My own projections estimate, that this line is closer to 229, making this total high on the value perspective for over wager. Over is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 Monday games.Over is 12-3 in Trail Blazers last 15 games following a straight up win. Over is 8-2 in Trail Blazers last 10 road games.Over is 10-4 in Trail Blazers last 14 games as a road underdog.Over is 10-4 in Trail Blazers last 14 games as a road underdog. |
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12-28-20 | Jazz v. Thunder UNDER 218.5 | 110-109 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
My projections make this total closer to the 214 mark, thus giviing us value with a under wager . |
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12-28-20 | Pistons v. Hawks OVER 223 | 120-128 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
Pierce is 27-12 OVER after playing 2 consecutive road games as the coach of ATLANTA with a combined average of 135.5 ppg scored. The Hawks are 10-0 OVER L/10 at home coming off a road game going over by more than 23 ppg on average. Play OVER |
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12-27-20 | Celtics v. Pacers UNDER 220.5 | 107-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
These are two play off contenders with tough defenses. The new version of the Pacers after lousy trey numbers last season will try to get going behind the arc more this season, but the Celtics own a strong 3 point D, and nothing is going to come easy from long range for the Pacers tonight. Meanwhile, the Celtics themselves Im betting struggle for flow vs a physically bigger Pacers side that is well balanced and mean on the inside. Im betting on a combined score that fails to eclipse this total. Under is 8-3-1 in Celtics last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 8-3-1 in Celtics last 12 road games. Under is 6-1 in Pacers last 7 games as an underdog. INDIANA is 143-110 UNDER at home when the line is +3 to -3 since 1996 with a combined average of 196.7 ppg scored. Stevens is 65-45 UNDER off a home loss as the coach of BOSTON with a combined average score of 205.7 ppg. Play UNDER |
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12-27-20 | 76ers v. Cavs UNDER 217 | 94-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Sixers visit Cavaliers in battle of unbeatens. Defence is key to both sides and nothing will change today. Under is 4-1 in 76ers last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Under is 10-3 in 76ers last 13 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 11-5 in 76ers last 16 games as a road favorite. Under is 13-3 in Cavaliers last 16 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Play on UNDER |
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12-27-20 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 50 | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
Both teams have dealt with plenty of injuries, the Cowboys hardest hit on the offensive line while the Eagles have had issues there and in the receiving group and that will help contribute to seeing this combined score to fail to eclipse the total.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER vs. struggling defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game this season. PHILADELPHIA is 11-2 UNDER after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers are 28-6 UNDER L/37 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-27-20 | Falcons v. Chiefs UNDER 53 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 30 m | Show | |
Atlanta is missing two key starters for this tilt against KC on its offensive line, which Im betting will effect its ability to pass block for Matt Ryan which will mute the Falcons flow. Meanwhile, KC after knowing its play off destiny is firmly in place, will play conservatively and make sure they stay as healthy as possible. Plus its never easy playing in the windy confines of this stadium, and that also will effect both sides offensive flow in a game Im betting failts to eclipse the total. |
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12-26-20 | Suns v. Kings UNDER 227.5 | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 1 h 2 m | Show | |
The Kings posted a dramatic 124-122 overtime win over the host Denver Nuggets on Wednesday, while Phoenix held off the Dallas Mavericks for a 106-102 home win on the same night. What stood out to me was the Suns top tier defensive play and Im betting on more of the same type of hoops in this spot , which favors this score to stay on the low side of the total. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 67-32 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. late steam- under |
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12-26-20 | Hawks v. Grizzlies OVER 237 | 122-112 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Atlanta plays a one way brand of run and gun basketball, and nothing should change with the full throttle Young leading the way. Meanwhile, Memphis must not be underestimated in their abiility to fire back with some offensive fireworks of their own in a tilt I have pegged to eclipse this total. ATLANTA is 37-25 OVER when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons. |
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12-26-20 | Western Kentucky v. Georgia State UNDER 50 | 21-39 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
The W.Kentucky Hilltoppers rank fifth in the conference in scoring defense (24.1). They lead Conference USA in pass defense, allowing 170.1 yards per game and Im betting they are well suited to slow down Georgia States attack. Meanwhile, on the flip side the Toppers, are offensively unstable and have only averaged 18 ppg away from home this season, and Im betting their inability to score will once again be on display today in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total. GEORGIA ST is 11-0 UNDER after gaining 300 or more passing yards in 3 straight games since 1992 averaging with an average combined score of 46.6 ppg going on the board. CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (W KENTUCKY) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents) are 42-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-25-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets OVER 224 | 121-108 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show | |
Its still early on the season to use pace numbers, but I expect both teams will take part in a high octane type of affair rather than a defensive minded play off type game that they took part in during the recent bubble play off adventure both took part in. |
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12-25-20 | Warriors v. Bucks UNDER 232 | 99-138 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
Im betting people maybe surprised at how much improvement New Orleans will make defensively this season under Van Gundy. Meanwhile, Miami bases their successes and failures on their ability to play top tier D, and tonight will be not differnet. Van Gundy is 187-141 UNDER in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average score of 198.5 ppg scored. Spoelstra is 297-266 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of MIAMI with the average combiend score of this big sample size clicking in at 198 ppg. NBA team (MIAMI) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, good team from last season (60% to 75%) playing a team who had a losing record last year are 53-24 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-25-20 | Pelicans v. Heat UNDER 224.5 | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 18 h 59 m | Show | |
Im betting people maybe surprised at how much improvement New Orleans will make defensively this season under Van Gundy. Meanwhile, Miami bases their successes and failures on their ability to play top tier D, and tonight will be not differnet. |