Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-16-23 | Alabama State v. Alabama A&M OVER 140.5 | 69-61 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My rejections estimate a combined score of 144 or more giving us a full possession cushion this total with over position. CBB Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (ALABAMA ST) - poor rebounding team (-3 to -6 Reb/G) vs. a horrible rebounding team (6 or less Reb/G) - 15+ games are 29-5 OVER L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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01-16-23 | Devils v. Sharks OVER 6.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
The Devils offense is rolling averaging 4.6 gpg in their L/5 overall and I would not be surprised if they eclipsed this total all by themselves vs a defensively deficient San Jose side that allowed 7 goals last time out and allowed and average of 4.4 gpg in their L/5 overall and 4.2 gpg on the season. Over is 5-0 in Devils last 5 overall. Over is 3-1-1 in Devils last 5 road games.Over is 20-7-1 in Devils last 28 in the third game of a 3-in-4 days situation NEW JERSEY is 6-0 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 9 gpg scored. NEW JERSEY is 7-0 OVER against struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 8.6 gpg scored. SAN JOSE is 11-2 OVER off a loss against a division rival this season with a combined average of 7.1 gog scored.Over is 8-0 in Sharks last 8 following a loss of 3 or more goals. Over is 6-0-1 in Sharks last 7 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.Over is 3-0-1 in Sharks last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.Over is 7-1 in Sharks last 8 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. NHL Road teams against the total (NEW JERSEY) - good closing team-outscoring opp by 0.2+ goals/game in third period - 2nd half of the season, after scoring 4 goals or more in 4 straight games are 24-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. NHL Home teams where the total is 6 or more (SAN JOSE) - struggling team - outscored by their opponents by 0.65+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season, after allowing 6 goals or more are 43-17 OVER L/26 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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01-15-23 | Dolphins v. Bills UNDER 47 | 31-34 | Loss | -108 | 99 h 54 m | Show | |
Im betting Miami turns this into a physical grinding play off affair that ends in a combined score that will not eclipse this totals offering. Slow and easy will be the clock eating mission of the Fins as they try to keep QB Josh Allen on the sidelines as long as possible. MIAMI is 12-3 UNDER in playoff games since 1992 with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored. Under is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 Wildcard games. Under is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 playoff games BUFFALO is 10-2 UNDER in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 40.5 ppg scored. NFL Road teams against the total (MIAMI) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight game are 50-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. NFL team against the total (MIAMI) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season are 47-19 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. Under is 7-3 in Bills last 10 vs. AFC. Play UNDER |
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01-15-23 | Marquette v. Xavier UNDER 164.5 | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My own projection makes this line closer to 160 giving us a two possession cushion on a under wager. Smart is 19-7 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive overs in all games he has coached since 1997 with a combined average of 139 points per game going on the scoreboard. CBB Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 160 (XAVIER) - explosive offensive team - scoring 84+ points/game on the season, after allowing 85 points or more are 29-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-14-23 | Holy Cross v. Lafayette UNDER 125.5 | 48-62 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. CBB teams where the total is 129.5 or less (HOLY CROSS/ LAFAYETTE) - in a game involving two poor rebounding teams (-3 to -6 reb/game) after 15+ games are 28-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate with the average ppg output ringing in at 113.8 ppg. Play UNDER |
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01-13-23 | Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 225.5 | 115-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show | |
These teams have a recent history of playing physical defensive affairs here at the Staples Center as is evident by the under cashing in the Nuggets last 5 visits to LA to play the Clippers with a combined average score (200.4 ppg) going on the board. Denver has recently played a long series of home games (four on a row) and when this has happened recently the Nuggets have gone under in 8 of their L/9 tilts overall ( after 4 or more straight as hosts). Meanwhile, the Clippers have gone under in 11 of their L/12 in 2/1 rest situation and have gone under in 9 of their L/10 against .600 or better conf opposition. Everything points to this being a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this offered total.Also the Under is 6-1 in Nuggets last 7 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Under is 36-13-2 in Nuggets last 51 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Under is 22-5-1 in Clippers last 28 home games. Play on the UNDER |
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01-13-23 | Devils v. Ducks OVER 6.5 | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
NJ Devils offense after a brief lull has picked up speed again and scored 4 or more goals in 5 of their L/6 games, and Im betting on them eclipsing that number tonight that allowed 17 goals in their L/2 games and have allowed 4 of more goals in 5 of their L/6 overall. Meanwhile, the Devils have allowed 3 or more goals in 6 of their L/8 and Im also betting the Ducks find the back of the net enough times to help buoy us over this offered total. Over is 5-0 in Devils last 5 games following a win something they achieved last time out. NEW JERSEY is 6-0 OVER against struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 8.7 gpg going on the scoreboard. Over is 7-2 in Ducks last 9 games playing on 1 days rest. Over is 8-3 in Ducks last 11 vs. Metropolitan. NHL Home teams against the total (ANAHEIM) - poor offensive team - scoring 2.55 or less goals/game on the season - 2nd half of the season, after a blowout loss by 3 goals or more in their previous game are 31-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings in Anaheim. Play over |
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01-13-23 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 241 | 144-113 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
Back on Nov 14 the Spurs were clobbered by the Warriors by a 132-95 count. Im betting this time around the Spurs HC Popovich will try to slow this game down in a redemption scenario. This will directly effect this score to the under. Yes, I know these teams Ds, do not look viable, but this number is still slightly bloated according to my projections . Under is 9-4-1 in Warriors last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Under is 11-5 in Warriors last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home. Under is 33-16-2 in Warriors last 51 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. GOLDEN STATE is 34-18 UNDER L/52 in road games versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season with a combined average of 205.1 ppg scored. . GOLDEN STATE is 25-11 UNDER when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 219.8 ppg . NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - terrible defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 47-13 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings. Play on the UNDER |
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01-12-23 | St. Thomas v. UMKC OVER 135 | 60-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Tauer is 8-1 OVER when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of ST THOMAS (MN) with a combined average of 157.2 ppg scored. MISSOURI-KC is 6-0 OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 161.7 ppg scored. MISSOURI-KC is 10-1 OVER versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 162.4 ppg scored. CBB Road teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (ST THOMAS (MN)) - after scoring 80 points or more in a win over a conference rival, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%) are 31-7 OVER L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 144.1 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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01-12-23 | Wild v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
The last two meetings in this series have seen a combined 7 goals scored and my estimates and projections estimate both sides to hit the 3+ goal output in this matchup. Minnesota has averaged 3.6 gpg in their last 5 tilts, and now that the Islanders are getting healthy again Im betting their recent goal scoring struggles will come to end here at home where they play their best hockey having averaged 3.1 gpg this season. MINNESOTA is 24-9 OVER when they allow 3 goals over the last 3 seasons.with a combined average of 6.9 gog scored. MINNESOTA is 26-11 OVER after allowing 3 goals or more 2 straight games over the last 2 season with a combined average of 7.3 gpg scored. NHL Road teams where the total is 5.5 (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 3 goals or more 2 straight games against opponent after playing a game where 3 or fewer total goals were scored are 64-28 OVER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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01-12-23 | Celtics v. Nets UNDER 228 | 109-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Im betting Boston and Brooklyn who are two top tier heavy weight teams will conservatively and physically turn this into a grinding affair rather than a run and gun battle which is not abnormal for matchups like this. The Celtics are ranked 9th in defensive efficiency and 16th in pace, while the Nets rank 5th in ppg allowed while ranking 21st in pace. Im betting on this being a rock fight and for the combined score to stay on the low side of the total. BROOKLYN is 17-2 UNDER versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons are 220.7 ppg. BROOKLYN is 11-2 UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70% or more ) over the last 2 seasons with a combined 216.3 ppg scored. BROOKLYN is 8-0 UNDER versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or more turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 219.2 ppg. BOSTON is 8-1 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 219.8 ppg scored. BOSTON is 8-1 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 222.2 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BROOKLYN) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 49-15 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. NBAteams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 45-15 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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01-11-23 | Predators v. Maple Leafs OVER 6 | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Both these teams offenses have been consistent for a while now . The Predators have scored at least three goals in six consecutive trips to the ice , averaging 4.5 gpg during that span.Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs have scored four-plus goals in seven of their last nine games. tonight as they play their 4th consecutive road game on tired legs Im betting on the explosive Buds offense to some damage against a Nashville team that have allowed 256 high-danger chances which ranking 24th in the league. In response Im also betting on the Preds to also do some offense damage against a some times shaky Toronto goal tending unit. TORONTO is 11-3 OVER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.with a combined average of 7.3 gpg scored. NASHVILLE is 23-13 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 6.9 gpg going on the board. NHL Home teams against the total (TORONTO) - off a road win, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team in the first half of the season are 102-64 OVER L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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01-11-23 | Gardner-Webb v. Presbyterian OVER 125.5 | 79-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Home teams where the total is 129.5 or less (PRESBYTERIAN) - poor shooting team (40-42.5%) against an excellent defensive team (40% or less) after 15+ games are 41-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the OVER |
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01-10-23 | Cavs v. Jazz UNDER 227 | 114-116 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
Cleveland has seen a combined average of 216.1 ppg scored on the road this season in 19 games, and always seem to play at a more deliberate pace away from home while paying special attention to defense in transition. That will definitely be the game plan vs a run and gun opponent Utah. With my projections estimates coming in a 224 I feel we have a comfortable one possession plus cushion to the under. . Under is 5-2 in Cavaliers last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. CLEVELAND is 27-13 UNDER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 214.6 ppg scored. Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in Utah with none of the games eclisping this current offering. Play UNDER |
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01-10-23 | Hornets v. Raptors OVER 229.5 | 120-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Toronto and Charlotte both have both struggled . Charlotte is ranked 27th in ppg defense, behind the 7th ranked pace, so when they are hitting shots like they did against Milwaukee recently they poured down 139 points in a win. I now expect the Hornets to once again do some damage tonight as Im also betting the Raptors pedestrian offense will hit above their season average as they are forced into opening up with this totals number being eclipsed. Clifford is 12-1 OVER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points as the coach of CHARLOTTE with a combined average of 241.7 ppg scored. Nurse is 23-11 OVER versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game as the coach of TORONTO with a combined an average of 232.1 ppg scored. Play on the OVER |
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01-10-23 | Akron v. Bowling Green OVER 140.5 | 74-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Bowling Green has scored 93, 102, 91, 88 points respectively in their L/4 trips to the hardwood, and Im betting they drag Akron into a run and gun affair here this evening. Akron has eclipsed the 80 point plateau in half of their L/8 games and can light it up offensively when pushed which will be the case tonight. BOWLING GREEN is 11-1 OVER L/12 after scoring 85 points or more 2 straight games with a combined average score of 155.7 ppg going on the board. BOWLING GREEN is 12-2 OVER b when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined score of 155.5 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (BOWLING GREEN) - off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 38-12 OVER L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 149.6 ppg going on the board. Play over |
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01-09-23 | Texas Southern v. Mississippi Valley State UNDER 133 | 67-71 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Texas Southern has averaged 62.3 ppg on offense on the road this season while their hosts Miss Valley State have averaged 54.6 ppg on offense overall.
Miss Valley State HC Ivory is 9-0 UNDER after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread in all games he has coached since 1997. CBB Road teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (TEXAS SOUTHERN) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 125.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. Play on the UNDER |
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01-09-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Canadiens UNDER 6.5 | 4-0 | Win | 110 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Seattle has a offensive explosion last time out beating Ottawa 8-4 and now Im betting on immediate offensive regression of a an aware Habs side that will want to slow their opponents flow. Meanwhile, Montreal is also in a regressionary position as they come off a rare strong offensive output winning a 5-4 decision against St.Louis. Two teams off back and forth affairs will now Im betting take part in a more conservative affair that fails to eclipse this totals offering. SEATTLE is 8-1 UNDER after playing a game where 8 or more total goals were scored this season.MONTREAL is 15-6 UNDER off an home win scoring 4 or more goals over the last 3 seasons. Under is 4-1-1 in Kraken last 6 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game. Under is 10-3-3 in Kraken last 16 vs. Eastern Conference. Under is 5-1 in Canadiens last 6 games following a win. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (SEATTLE) - tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the first half of the season are 49-18 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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01-08-23 | Hawks v. Clippers UNDER 234.5 | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Clippers play a strong defensive brand of basketball at home as is evident by 16-3 UNDER record in home games this season with a combined average of 210 ppg scored. LA CLIPPERS are 8-0 UNDER in home games after playing a road game this season which is the case here tonight with the average combined score of 207.7 ppg scored. CLIPPERS are 10-2 UNDER as a home favorite this season with a combined average of 207 ppg going on the board. I know Atlanta will push forward here, but the clippers will hold them back in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the number. LA CLIPPERS are 10-2 UNDER in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46%or more of their shots this season with a combined average of 211.5 ppg scored.LA CLIPPERS are 14-2 UNDER in home games versus sub par defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or better this season with a combined average of 208.8 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 30-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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01-08-23 | Maple Leafs v. Flyers OVER 6 | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
The Flyers are averaging 4.5 goals per game during their current four-game winning run and Im betting will push the Leafs who played last night into a more wide open game. It must be noted that Toronto has eclipsed this totals offering in each of its last four road tilts with an average of 8.25 goals going on the scoreboard.Philadelphia has gone over this number in six of their L/8 games overall and including their last 3 three home games and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation . The over is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings between Toronto and Philadelphia. TORONTO is 7-1 OVER in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season with an average of 7.4 gog scored. TORONTO is 9-1 OVER off a home win by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 8.9 gpg scored. NHL team against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - slow starting team-outscored by opp by 0.2+ goals/game in first period, after scoring 3 goals or more in 5 straight games are. 62-38 OVER L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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01-08-23 | Washington v. Arizona State OVER 136.5 | 65-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. WASHINGTON is 6-0 OVER in a road game where the total is 135 to 139.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 155.9 ppg scored. WASHINGTON is 7-0 OVER versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 150.5 ppg scored. WASHINGTON in their L/6 road games versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 39% or less over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 141.6 ppg scored. Play over |
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01-08-23 | Blazers v. Raptors UNDER 226.5 | 105-117 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Portland ihas become more defensively-oriented as time has progressed . Meanwhile, Toronto plays a mugging style of physical basketball that features a strong defense and less than explosive offense. The Trail Blazers have the 12th-best scoring defence in the NBA and are ranked just 20th-best points per game average. The Raptors rank 11th in point against defence and 26th in offensive production and 27th in pace . Im betting on grinding affair lower scoring affair. PORTLAND is 8-1 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 218.8 ppg scored. PORTLAND is 32-19 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.7 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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01-08-23 | Mt. St. Mary's v. Marist OVER 126.5 | 56-63 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. MARIST is 7-0 OVER at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 141.2 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (MARIST) - off a home blowout loss by 20 points or more, a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season are 32-9 OVER L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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01-07-23 | Lakers v. Kings UNDER 242 | 136-134 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
The Lakers played last night and captured a win, (130-114) and now on tired legs as they play. back to back affairs, Im betting their strategy will not be a run and gun program, but instead a more defensive minded game plan out of transition that will skew this totals offering to the low side of the lines-makers estimates. Under is 4-1 in Lakers last 5 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. LA LAKERS in 7 division games this season have seen a combined average of 227 ppg scored. Under is 5-2 in Kings last 7 overall. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LA LAKERS) - off a home win by 10 points or more, on Saturday games are 46-14 OVER L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - being called for 21 or less fouls/game on the season, on Saturday games are 61-26 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-07-23 | Red Wings v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Detroit is on tired legs after playing last night and has played a pair of back-to-backs over the past four weeks, allowing four-plus goals in both matchups and tonight Im betting on a Leafs side eclipsing that number which will help us breach this totals offering.The Maple Leafs have scored four-plus goals in five of their past seven games and will bounce back off a ugly 5-1 loss last time out. Im also betting that Detroit does at least enough damage offensively for us to breach this number. Motown has allowed an average of 4.22 gpg over their L/9. TORONTO is 7-1 OVER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) in the first half of the season this season with a combined average of 7.7 gog scored. Play OVER |
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01-06-23 | Pistons v. Spurs UNDER 236.5 | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
Both these teams have played some wide open games of late, both are defensively deficient, but when sub par teams like San Antonio and Detroit go head to head there is a history of fairly low scoring events. One of the key reasons for these lower scoring affairs is because they are usually more physical as both teams know they have a rare winnable game in their grasp, and the play becomes intense . NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO /DETROIT) - terrible defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 44-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. .NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DETROIT) - in a game involving 2 sub par teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 235 points or more are 25-3 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - terrible defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 44-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DETROIT) - struggling defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 27-4 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. DETROIT is 19-9 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.4 ppg scored. Play on the UNDER |
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01-06-23 | Quinnipiac v. Rider OVER 143 | 72-63 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections make this game Total closer to 147 thus giving us a almost 2 possession value on this offering. Baggett is 9-1 OVER off a close road loss by 3 points or less as the coach of RIDER with a combined average of 154.6 ppg scored. (Rider lost 61-59 on the road last time out) CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points /RIDER (QUINNIPIAC) - in a game involving two average shooting teams (42.5-45%), in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game) are 40-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 152.1 ppg. Play OVER |
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01-05-23 | Grizzlies v. Magic OVER 226.5 | 123-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
analysis to follow thank you for your patience NBA team (ORLANDO) - playing on back-to-back days, a sub par team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 94-47 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate. NBA team (MEMPHIS) - after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 45-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. |
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01-03-23 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin OVER 123.5 | 60-63 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. The last three meetings in this series have eclipsed this totals offering and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here this evening. WISCONSIN is 23-12 OVER as a home favorite or pick over the last 3 seasons with the combined average score of those tilts at 136.5 ppg. MINNESOTA is 7-0 OVER after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 135,6 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is 129.5 or less (WISCONSIN) - excellent ball handling team - committing 12 or less turnovers/game, after 4 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers are 53-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. Play OVER |
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01-03-23 | Celtics v. Thunder UNDER 235.5 | 117-150 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
The Celtics' defense allowed the Nuggets to shoot 57 percent from the floor (45-for-79) and 56.7 percent from 3-point range (17-for-30) in a loss at Denver last time out, and will now be focused on playing much better D tonight vs the Oklahoma city Thunder. From a offensive stand point, Celtics have have really been struggling from beyond the arc and failed to eclipse the 35 percent plateau in six of their last eight tilts and have shot below 30 percent from behind the arc in five of those games. Im betting on these two above mentioned expected defensive modifications and trends to directly effect this combined score giving an edge to a under wager cashing . Under is 9-4 in Thunder last 13 overall. Under is 8-1 in Celtics last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. BOSTON in their L/39 games as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 216.9 ppg going on the board. BOSTON is 10-2 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with a combined average of 226.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. BOSTON is 30-18 UNDER in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.8 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 31-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 120 points or more are 52-20 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
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01-03-23 | Blues v. Maple Leafs OVER 6 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 29 m | Show | |
When these teams last week they took part in 5-4 run and gun affair with the Leafs coming out on top. The Leafs have scored 4 or more goals in 8 of their L/11 and have averaged 4.4 gpg in their L/5 trips to the ice. Tonight against a St.Louis side that looks defensively deficient of late giving up 5 or more goals in 4 of their L/5 overall . Im now betting the Buds score 4 or more goals again while, the Blues will forced to open up with their own fairly efficient offense and and turn this into a barn burner. Note: The Blues own the second worst even-strength high-danger chances against in the NHL this season at 393. TORONTO is 10-2 OVER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.3 gpg scored. ST LOUIS is 14-2 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 8.1 gog scored.ST LOUIS is 12-1 OVER in non-conference games this season with as combined average of 8.3 gog going on the scoreboard. Play OVER |
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01-01-23 | Celtics v. Nuggets UNDER 234.5 | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
After an extended 7 game home stand going into the high altitudes of the Mile High City is not an easy task, and Im betting that will hamper the Celtics ability to play all out back and forth hoops and instead I expect their quality D ranked 7th in defensive efficiency , to stand tall here and for the visitor to play conservative minded in transition. I know Denvers weakness is on D, and the Celtics are explosive offensively, but like I said above the high altitudes after a long home stand will effect their ability to be as aggressive as usual which will directly effect this Total not being eclipsed. Note: The Celtics rank 16th in pace while the Nuggets rank 20th. BOSTON is 30-18 UNDER in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.3 ppg scored.BOSTON is 8-0 UNDER in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season with a combined average of 220.6 ppg scored. BOSTON is 19-7 UNDER (+11.3 Units) as a road favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 214.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. BOSTON is 10-2 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with a combined average of 225.9 ppg scored. DENVER is 12-3 UNDER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons are with a combined average of 229.3 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 44-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 31-7 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-31-22 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies UNDER 235 | 101-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Memphis is playing a top tier brand of defensive basketball and Im betting they will dictate the pace and continue to operate with vigilance in transition. The Grizzlies rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, after playing Philadelphia last night and capturing a win via a strong all out effort at home, Im betting on a letdown effort here and for their offense to be limited. MEMPHIS is 18-5 UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better of their shots over the last 3 season with a combined average of 219.8 ppg scored. Green is 11-1 UNDER in road games after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher as the coach of NEW ORLEANS with a combined average of 208.9 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 43-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 26-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for 87% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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12-31-22 | Idaho v. Montana OVER 138.5 | 56-67 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Montana has has produced 80 plus point offensive performances in 4 straight and Im betting they we wont be slowed here today and be the catalysts in pushing this game over the offered total. IDAHO is 18-6 OVER versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 155.2 ppg scored. IDAHO is 10-2 OVER versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 154.1 ppg scored. DAHO is 8-1 OVER when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 156.8 ppg going on the board. MONTANA is 11-3 OVER when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 148.8 ppg going on the scoreboard. Road teams against the total (IDAHO) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%)are 51-18 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 148.2 ppg. Play on the OVER |
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12-31-22 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech OVER 124.5 | 74-56 | Win | 100 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections make this total closer to 128 giving us substantial value with taking an over wager here. VIRGINIA is 8-1 OVER in a road game where the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 134.5 ppg scored. GEORGIA TECH is 6-0 OVER after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 season with a combined average of 156.6 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (GEORGIA TECH) - excellent ball handling team - committing 12 or less turnovers/game, after 4 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers are 46-17 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 134.2 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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12-30-22 | Jazz v. Kings UNDER 240.5 | 125-126 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 37 m | Show | |
Sacramento played a back forth game vs Denver day before yesterday and took a 127-126 victory. Im now betting they are in a letdown mode , and physically tired and not ready to run and gun here tonight vs a Jazz side off two straight upset defeats . Im now betting the Jazz will be ready to play a better brand of disciplined defensive hoops. Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 Friday games.Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 7-2 in Kings last 9 games following a straight up win. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 116-52 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 69% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 80-40 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-28-22 | Nets v. Hawks UNDER 235.5 | 108-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
My projected total for this tilt featuring Atlanta and Brooklyn comes in at 229 which gives a two full possession value to the under on this offering. Brooklyn ranks 8th in ppg allowed and. operate at the 21st ranked pace in the NBA. Atlanta ranks in 14th in defensive efficiency. Under is 11-4 in Nets last 15 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 12-4 in Hawks last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. ATLANTA is 33-19 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 220.9 ppg. BROOKLYN is 34-21 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 225 ppg. BROOKLYN is 25-10 UNDER after 2 straight games being called for 5+ more fouls than opponent with a combined average of 211.4 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN/ATLANTA) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 29-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
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12-27-22 | Jacksonville v. Notre Dame OVER 129 | 43-59 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Notre Dame has been playing soft hoops of late, even when they have a height advantage they seemed unmotivated to be as aggressive as need be. So I wont be surprised if Jacksonville gets alot of second chances in the offensive zone and score above their season average. Additionally, during their last five games, the Irish have allowed teams to shoot 71.6% from the field and 53.2% in the paint. On the flipside Jacksonville has recorded field goal percentages of 49.3% FG and 67%, at the rim . Notre Dame will push the action, because of being in desperation mode after losing 3 straight and should push past Jacksonvilles slower pace. This Im betting see a combined score that hints into the 130s or more. NOTRE DAME is 6-0 OVER versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 15 or less free throws/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 152.3 ppg scored.
CBB Home teams where the total is 129.5 or less (NOTRE DAME) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite against opponent off a road win are 25-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 133.1 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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12-26-22 | Pacers v. Pelicans UNDER 237 | 93-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
The New Orleans Pelicans have been missing some of their best players, and have stepped up and played quality ball. This Pelicans team has taken part in a lot of back and forth offensive hoops , but it must be noted that they are ranked 6h in defensive efficiency in the league. Meanwhile, Indiana has also played well of late and its their defense that has been the catalyst . Because of added focus to paying attention to defense in transition, they have allowed 112, 108 points in two marquee wins vs Boston and Miami respectively and Im betting that will stick their winning game plan tonight vs another top tier side and because of this Im betting the expected offensive output will not be eclipsed. Pacers are 8-3 UNDER L/11 overall. Under is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 road games.Under is 17-7-1 in Pacers last 25 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 18-7-1 in Pelicans last 26 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. INDIANA is 13-4 UNDER in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.6 ppg.
NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (INDIANA) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 100-49 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 67% conversion rate. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 36-12 UNDER L/5 seasons with a 75% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 86-35 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-25-22 | Iona v. Pepperdine UNDER 152 | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 3 h 42 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. CBB neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (PEPPERDINE) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 37-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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12-25-22 | Lakers v. Mavs UNDER 226.5 | 115-124 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 30 m | Show | |
The Lakers on the road- run and gun with wreck-less abandon and are usually punished defensively because their not focusing on their defensive responsibilities in transition. Overall they rank 2nd in pace in the league. They are scoring an average of 115.2 ppg game this season but rank 26th in in ppg allowed and on the road allow a whopping 121.7 ppg on the campaign. Dallas is the kind of team that can- really roll up points in a hurry against this type of side behind super star Doncic. Im betting on a much quicker pace and a more explosive offensive game than many might expect here on Christmas day. . LA LAKERS in 8 road games where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with a combined average of 232 points per game scored.LA LAKERS are 36-22 OVER as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230 ppg scored. LA LAKERS are 12-3 OVER vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 231.3 ppg scored. Over is 5-0 in Lakers last 5 road games.Over is 4-1 in Lakers last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 16-5 in Lakers last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Over is 9-3 in Lakers last 12 overall.Over is 21-7 in Lakers last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 5-2 in Mavericks last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Play over |
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12-24-22 | Seahawks v. Chiefs OVER 49 | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 44 m | Show | |
These teams the Chiefs and Seahawks have played scorched earth all out offensive slugfests in recent meetings going 5-0 OVER in the last 5 matchups with a combined average score of 62.6 ppg going on the scoreboard. With that said, Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here this week, as the leagues most explosive offense lead by QB Mahomes takes on the 2nd worst road defense in the league this season as the Seahawks allow 56.7 ppg away from home. Im betting on the Chiefs doing some damage here offensively (projection of 28+ points) and for the Seahawks to be in all chase mode, which will help us see a combined score that eclipses this offering.KANSAS CITY is 7-0 OVER when they score 28 or more points this season with a combined average 52.2 ppg scored. SEATTLE is 12-1 OVER when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 68 ppg scored. Im also projecting Seattle to score 20+ points-SEATTLE is 8-0 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points this season with a combined average of 63 ppg scored. Play on the OVER |
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12-23-22 | Pelicans v. Thunder UNDER 231.5 | 128-125 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
The Thunder enter Friday's game on a three-game winning streak, having garnered a win vs Portland 101-98 Wednesday to sweep back-to-back games against the Trail Blazers. It was their D, that showed up and played big and now against the run and gun Pelicans Im betting on them proverbially battening down the hatches again behind an improving D, that is now ranked 14th in the league in defensive efficiency. When these teams played on Nov 28 New Orleans took a 105-100 win and another physical battle Im betting is on tonights agenda. Under is 7-1 in Thunder last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. NEW ORLEANS is 17-5 UNDER as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.5 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 UNDER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.6 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a win against a division rival are 28-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 29-7 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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12-23-22 | Wake Forest v. Missouri OVER 58.5 | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
Gasparilla Bowl - Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL When Wake Forest takes to the gridiron and top gun QB Hartman is leading the offense you can almost expect offensive fire works from them, even against the best of defenses. They enter this game, having scored 34, 45, 31 points respectively in 3 straight and even against a staunch Missouri D, they have the ability to rock the house with a boatload full of points. On the flipisde the Demon Deacons own a sometimes porous D, that has allowed more than 31 ppg on the road this season. Meanwhile, Missouri has played their best D, at home , but on the road their numbers surge to an average of 31.4 ppg. Tonight Im betting the Deacons to get into the 30s offensively and for Missouri to have to be aggressive and also do some damage, against a D, that will not be as daunting as those they faced in the SEC.
Clawson is 8-1 OVER after allowing 375 or more passing yards in their last game as the coach of WAKE FOREST with the average combined score clicking in at 65.8 ppg. Play OVER |
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12-22-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Stanford OVER 124 | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. CBB teams where the total is 129.5 or less (STANFORD) - poor three point shooting team (32% or less) against a good 3PT defense 32% or better ), in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game) are 28-10 over L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors with 130 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is 129.5 or less (LOYOLA-IL) - in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game) are 38-10 over L/ L/26 seasons witn a combined average of 131.8 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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12-22-22 | Northern Illinois v. Indiana State UNDER 155.5 | 67-57 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Northern Illinois thanks to their D, has struggled lately, and the coaching staff has said, that their D needs to upgraded and attention must be focused on slowing down opponents out of transition . Thats fits into most teams thoughts when in this type of downward momentum situation. Note: N ILLINOIS is 9-2 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 129.2 ppg scored. I expect N.Illinois to implement a more concerted effort on D, which will also limit their output offensively, helping us keep this game to the low side of the number. INDIANA ST is 6-0 UNDER in home games in December games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 138.1 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (INDIANA ST) - after playing a game where both teams score 80 points or more, with all five starters returning from last season are 42-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-21-22 | Michigan v. North Carolina UNDER 155 | 76-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Spectrum Center - Charlotte, NC Both these teams could really use a win, and Im betting that this will be a grueling affair and both will pay significant attention to playing a strong defensive brand of hoops in transition and for alot of elbow action in the paint. My projections estimate a score closer to 149 which gives us a significant edge on this Totals offering. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points MICH/ (N CAROLINA) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%) are 34-8 UNDER L/5 seasons. Play UNDER |
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12-21-22 | Northeastern v. Davidson OVER 137 | 73-70 | Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play over |
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12-20-22 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets UNDER 235.5 | 91-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
This total based on my own projections should be closer to 231 which gives us a 2 possession value with an under wager. 5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons. Under is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 8-3 in Nuggets last 11 home games. MEMPHIS is 17-5 UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots over the last 3 season with a combined average of 220.9 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 9-1 UNDER after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season are 213.4 ppg scored. DENVER is 14-4 UNDER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 228.9 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS/DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 34-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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12-20-22 | Montana v. Gonzaga UNDER 147 | 75-85 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 60 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Gonzaga is off a run and gun affair in their last game vs Alabama, with a combined score of 190 points going on the board. Im betting on immediate regression here vs a Montana side that has proven they can play strong defense when need be as is evident by allowing 59 or less points to their opponent in 5 of their L/11 games. GONZAGA is 6-0 UNDER in home games versus sub standard passing teams, averaging 12 or less assists/game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 135.7 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (MONTANA) - red hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 53% or better of their shots are 44-16 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-20-22 | Devils v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
The Devils are slumping and have lost their defensive prowess, but because of this need to start o focus on good transitional hockey in D, the coaching staff has emphasized this and Im betting they implement it here against a red hot Carolina that plays.a strong brand of defensive hockey and have shown a propensity for shut down hockey against aggressive offenses like the Devils have brandished . Note: CAROLINA is 6-0 UNDER against good possession teams-averaging 3+ more shots on goal than opp this season. Carolina is also on tired legs so run and gun hockey is prob out of the question. CAROLINA is 11-1 UNDER in home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons Under is 12-4-1 in Devils last 17 overall. Under is 5-0 in Hurricanes last 5 in the third game of a 3-in-4 days situation.Under is 7-0 in Hurricanes last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 4-0 in Hurricanes last 4 vs. Metropolitan.Under is 5-1 in Hurricanes last 6 home game NHL Road teams against the total (NEW JERSEY) - off 2 or more consecutive home losses, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 70%) are 26-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. NHL Home teams against the total (CAROLINA) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 23-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 17-7-4 in the last 28 meetings. Under is 10-4-2 in the last 16 meetings in Carolina Play on UNDER |
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12-19-22 | Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 227 | 121-123 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City has only eclipsed the total in 1 of their L/10 trips to the hardwood. Meanwhile, Portland in their 17 road games this season seen a combined average of 219.6 ppg go on the scoreboard. and rank 28th in the NBA in pace. with this being the Blazers 4th straight road game in the L/6 days Im betting they will hold to their usually methodical pace which will help keep this tilt on the low side of the Totals offering. Under is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. PORTLAND is 29-17 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 games following a ATS win which was the case last time out. .NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PORTLAND) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 28-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after allowing 43 points or less in the first half last game are 33-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 23-9 in the last 32 meetings in Oklahoma City. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Play UNDER |
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12-19-22 | Panthers v. Bruins UNDER 6.5 | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Florida enters this game playing tight defensive minded hockey and have seen 7 of their L/9 games stay under the total. Meanwhile, BOSTON is 8-1 UNDER in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons and overall have seen 7 of their L/9 tilts fail to eclipse the total and have allowed an average of just 2.1 gpg in their L/10 trips to the ice. Florida beat Boston 5-2 back on Nov 23rd and now in the followup Im betting the Bruins pay alot of attention to their defensive game in transition as they make sure the same mistakes made in the last meeting dont repeat themselves tonight. Under is 4-0-1 in Panthers last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Under is 3-1-1 in Panthers last 5 road games. Under is 7-3-1 in Panthers last 11 vs. Atlantic. NHL Home teams where the total is 6 or more (BOSTON) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 2 goals or more, a top-level team (70% or better ) playing a team with a losing record are 22-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 27-13-9 in the last 49 meetings. Play UNDER |
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12-19-22 | Stars v. Blue Jackets UNDER 6.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
The Blue Jackets have been very inconsistent offensively this season and in their L/12 games have averaged just 2.33 gpg. Today against a Dallas side allowing only 2.2 gpg in their L/5 and just 2.7 gpg on the road this season, Columbus scoring out-put problems should persist. This lack of production Im betting will effect this combined score to stay under. this offering COLUMBUS is 8-1 UNDER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.5+ goals/game this season. Under is 6-0 in Blue Jackets last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. DALLAS is 15-6 UNDER in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons . Under is 5-1 in Stars last 6 road games. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (DALLAS) - tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season in the first half of the season are 106-50 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate! NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (DALLAS) - tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the first half of the season are 48-16 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings. Play on UNDER |
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12-18-22 | Oakland v. Boise State UNDER 142.5 | 57-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Oakland is struggling to score and Im betting on Boise State shutting them down , while they themselves will have offensive regression after a big output last time out. BOISE ST is 8-2 UNDER in all games this season. BOISE ST is 8-1 UNDER after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Rice is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in home games off a home win scoring 85 or more points as the coach of BOISE ST with a combined average score of 135.1 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (BOISE ST) - after allowing 55 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. are 31-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 84% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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12-18-22 | Steelers v. Panthers OVER 37.5 | 24-16 | Win | 100 | 47 h 58 m | Show | |
My projections estimate both sides will eclipse the 20 point plateau giving us strong value with an over wager . Note: PITTSBURGH is 14-1 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 57.7 ppg scored. CAROLINA is 8-0 OVE when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 57.8 ppg scored. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (PITTSBURGH) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, after the first month of the season are 22-3 OVER L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team against the total (CAROLINA) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 50-21 OVER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. The L/6 meetings in this series have seen both teams combined to average 48.8 ppg. Play on the over |
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12-17-22 | Blazers v. Rockets OVER 227 | 107-95 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Houstons D has been playing well lately, but the run and gun Damian Lilliard Blazers will test that prowess here tonight forcing the Rockets out of their recent comfort zone. I know the Blazers played last night in Dallas, but they are a well conditioned group and more than capable of finding their legs in a back to back situation. It must also be noted because Dallas took such a big lead last night in their win vs the Blazers the Lilliard only played 24 min. So the super star will be fresh tonight and ready to continue his offensive assault. The first meeting this season between these sides saw a combined 236 points go on the board. Houston ranks 27th in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 115.4 . My projections estimate that Portland eclipses that average and the chasing Rockets chase their output and help us cash an over ticket. PORTLAND is 7-0 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 235.8 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 18-5 OVER (+12.5 Units) after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.6 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PORTLAND) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 30-8 OVER L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 31-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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12-17-22 | Rice v. Southern Miss OVER 45.5 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 33 h 46 m | Show | |
LendingTree Bowl - Hancock Whitney Stadium - Mobile, AL Southern Miss defense can stop run games cold as is evident by having limited the opposition to fewer than 150 rushing yards on average per game this season.That makes me believe Rice despite of throwing more than their share of picks this season will be forced to air the ball out, which will see them also score above the expected output, and see some extra points go up on the board against them because of their atrocious turnover ratios. On the flipside, Frank Gore Jr., who ran for 1,000 plus rushing yards this season for Southern Miss should have a field day on the ground vs a Owls side that struggles against ground attacks ranking 91st against the run, allowing 166.5 rushing yards per game. Southern Miss also has alot of turnovers (22) so some unexpected offense could easily be stymied but go the other way. Sloppy game expected and more points than the lines-makers are projecting to go on the board. Over is 4-0 in Owls last 4 vs. S-Belt. RICE is 8-0 OVER in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 62.9 ppg scored. Rices L/24 games dating back to last season have seen a combined average of 58.4 ppg scored. Over is 5-1 in Golden Eagles last 6 non-conference games. Over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. Play OVER |
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12-17-22 | Toledo v. Marshall UNDER 166 | 85-100 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projected combined score clicks in at 161 giving us top value with this Totals offering. TOLEDO is 18-7 UNDER in road games versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season with a combined average of 139 ppg scored. MARSHALL is 13-5 UNDER versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 144.8 ppg scored. MARSHALL is 6-0 UNDER ( after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 144 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points (MARSHALL) - after 2 or more consecutive unders, an excellent offensive team (76 PPG or more) against a poor defensive team (74-76 PPG) are 31-7 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-16-22 | Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 237.5 | 108-126 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
Denver scored 141 points last time out and now Im betting on some major regression from an offensive output perspective. Under is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Im betting his directly effects this total to the under here in this tilt vs LAK. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 101-48 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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12-16-22 | Islanders v. Coyotes UNDER 6 | 4-5 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
The last three most recent meetings between these teams have seen a shutout posted ( 2 by the Isles, and 1 by the Coyotes). an average of 3 total goals were scored in those tilts and Im now betting on a rinse and repeat situation with tow viable goalies expected to be between the pipes (Sorokin vs Vejmelka) Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in Arizona. NHL team against the total (NY ISLANDERS) - off a close road loss by 1 goal, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a bad team (25 to 40%). are 28-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-16-22 | Blazers v. Mavs OVER 225 | 110-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
Portland has won three straight and five of its last six with Lillard leading the way. He is shooting 52.9 percent from the field and 50.7 percent from 3-point range since returning. Im betting he prompts Doncic and company in all out offensive slugfest. Over is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 overall. PORTLAND is 9-1 OVER after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 234.6 ppg scored. Over is 13-3 in Mavericks last 16 games following a straight up loss. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PORTLAND) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are 33-7 OVER L/5 season for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Dallas.Over is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings. Play on the over |
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12-16-22 | Missouri State v. Oral Roberts OVER 145 | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections make this total closer to 148, which gives us value on the over . Oral Roberts has averaged 97.5 ppg at home this season and play a run and gun all out type of basketball that does not pay much attention to defense in transition. I know Missouri State will try to slow down this game, but its not an easy proposition to implement against this type of no prisoners hoops program. MISSOURI ST is 20-8 OVER versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game with a combined average of 147.1 ppg scored. ORAL ROBERTS is 8-1 OVER in home games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 175.4 ppg going on the scoreboard. CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (ORAL ROBERTS) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games are 28-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate with a combined average of 150.7 ppg scored. Play on the OVER |
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12-15-22 | Stars v. Capitals UNDER 6 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 27 h 8 m | Show | |
Dallas has played a heavy schedule of late and Im betting on them using a more conservative game plan out of transition tonight, that should help them slow this game down . This will directly translate into a combined score that will help us cash an under wager. DALLAS is 15-5 UNDER in road games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 5.2 gpg scored. WASHINGTON is 7-0 UNDER in home games against mistake free teams - opponents average 4 or less power plays/game this season with a combined average of 4.8 gpg scored. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (DALLAS) - tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the first half of the season are 47-17 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (DALLAS) - extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the first half of the season are 22-4 UNDER L/526seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Play on UNDER |
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12-14-22 | Wolves v. Clippers OVER 223 | 88-99 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
Minnesota in a recent defeat were bashed by a 133-112 count on Monday when the Wolves saw their opponent shoot 45.7 percent (21 of 46) from 3-point range. The current form of their D, portrays a situation where the Clippers project to score above their current offensive averages. This will aid in overall offensive output projections. Minnesota ranks 2nd in pace, and even without Townsend in the lineup are in all out attack mode which leaves them vulnerable in transition. MINNESOTA is 23-6 OVER after allowing 130 points or more over the last 3 seasons with the combined average score of those 29 games clicking in at 241.1 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MINNESOTA) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or better of their shots are 33-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with the combined average of 234 ppg going on the scoreboard. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA CLIPPERS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 285-192 OVER L/26 seasons for a 60% conversion rate with the combined average of 227.7 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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12-14-22 | Ohio v. Florida UNDER 143.5 | 48-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Amalie Arena - Tampa, FL My projections make this Total closer to 140 giving us at least one or two full possession edge on this offering from the books. OHIO U is 14-2 UNDER in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 131.7 ppg scored. OHIO U is 11-2 UNDER in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 136.7 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (FLORIDA/OHIO U) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45-47.5%) are 82-36 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-13-22 | New Orleans v. Boise State UNDER 142 | 50-91 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections make this line closer to 148 which gives us a full two possession value on this offering. Advantage to the under. Boise has allowed 59.3 ppg at home this season, and Im betting New Orleans will be bogged down for much of this game aiding in our under cause. CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (BOISE ST) - after allowing 55 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 30-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 138.2 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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12-11-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 44 | 34-28 | Loss | -108 | 51 h 14 m | Show | |
Denver just cant put points on the board, consistently especially with Wilson under center. Note: Wilson’s 83.5 Passer Rating ranks No. 29th of all starting quarterbacks during this campaign. I know the Chiefs pass D is sometimes porous , but DENVER is just 8-1 UNDER vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season with a combined average of 32.4 ppg scored. Meanwhile, we know the Chiefs can pile up points but it must also be noted that Denvers D is a solid group, as as a result of this are 9-2 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.3 ppg scored. Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 vs. AFC. NFL road favs off a road chalk defeat in their last game like the Chiefs have gone under in their following game in all 6 times this has happened this season. NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team ( 7.3 or more PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games are 25-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. DENVER is 9-0 UNDER in games played on a natural surface field this season and 11-1 under on the season. Under is 22-7 in Broncos last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Play UNDER |
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12-10-22 | Louisiana Tech v. Wyoming OVER 142.5 | 65-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Wyoming has average 80.4 ppg in 5 home games this season so far and their opponents LA Tech have average 78.6 ppg on the road. LOUISIANA TECH is 9-2 OVER versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 151.4 ppg scored. LOUISIANA TECH is 9-2 OVER in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 153.2 ppg scored in those 11 tilts. WYOMING is 7-0 OVER in home games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 154.8 ppg scored.WYOMING is 9-1 OVER in home games after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 150.4 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (WYOMING) - off a home win scoring 85 or more points, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 41-11 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 153.5 ppg . Play OVER |
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12-10-22 | Radford v. VMI OVER 142 | 74-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. VMI a team that has already eclipsed the 100 point plateau 3 times this season will push the pace here forcing Radford to open up to some extent, which will help us eclipse this totals offering. Radford has proved it can pour down points offensively with recent 80 and 86 point outputs in their last 2 trips to the hardwood. RADFORD is 8-1 OVER versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 144.9 ppg scored. RADFORD is 21-8 OVER L/29 when the total is 140 to 149.5. VMI is 14-5 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 155.9 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (VMI) - off a home win scoring 85 or more points, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 41-11 OVER 26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 153.4 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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12-10-22 | Buffalo v. Tulane UNDER 157.5 | 63-88 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play UNDER |
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12-09-22 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Columbia OVER 152.5 | 76-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play over |
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12-08-22 | Raiders v. Rams UNDER 43.5 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
This total according to my projections is a bit high and we have an edge with an under wager here this Thursday night. I know the Raiders have been rolling but HC Jacobs is dealing with some injuries that may slow that roll . On the flip-side the Rams are decimated offensively as the injuries are sky high, and Im betting they wont be able to take advantage of below average Raiders D. Note: Raiders rank 23rd in situation-neutral pace and Rams rank 28th. Game 13 teams like the Rams with a win % of .250 or less, when the Totals offering is 42 or more have gone under in 21 of the L/24 times for a 88% conversion rate dating back 9 seasons. LA RAMS are 8-1 UNDER against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.5 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 33.8 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.5 ppg. Raiders have gone under in 4 of their L/5 non division road games as favs. Rams have gone under in their 3 Thursday night tilts, NFL Road teams against the total (LAS VEGAS) - excellent rushing team - averaging 5 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 29-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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12-08-22 | Kings v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
In their L/8 games overall the Leafs have seen a combined average of 5.65 gpg scored with 6 of those games failing to eclipse the total. Solid goaltending and a more concerted effort on good positional play out of transition has made for tight games . Tonight in revenge mode for a loss suffered to the Kings on the road back in late October Im betting the home side will be very vigilant defensively and ready to shut down an opponent that surprisingly likes to play wide open hockey of late. Under is 5-1 in Maple Leafs last 6 home games.Under is 4-1 in Maple Leafs last 5 overall.Under is 4-1 in Maple Leafs last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 11-4-1 in Maple Leafs last 16 games following a win. TORONTO is 14-4 UNDER against good passing teams - averaging 5 or more assists per game this season.TORONTO is 6-0 UNDER after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.TORONTO is 8-1 UNDER after scoring 3 goals or more in 2 straight games this season. NHL team against the total (TORONTO) - revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite, off a road win where they shut out their opponent are 48-19 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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12-07-22 | Bruins v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
The Avs are a really banged up bunch with the injury list being extensive including star Nathan MacKinnon. Being in survival mode against a top tier side Im betting on a very conservative effort out of transition on offense. This is Im betting impacts the Total to the under. Add to that the Bruins top tier D, and we have a situation that favors the under option. COLORADO is 7-0 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Under is 5-0-1 in Avalanche last 6 vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 7-3-1 in Avalanche last 11 overall.Under is 9-4-1 in Avalanche last 14 vs. Eastern Conference. BOSTON is 7-1 UNDER after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season with a combined average of 4.5 gpg. NHL Road teams against the total (BOSTON) - off a close home loss by 1 goal, a top-level team (70%)or more playing a team with a winning record are 22-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-06-22 | Coppin State v. NC State UNDER 157.5 | 72-94 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Keatts is 13-5 UNDER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) as the coach of NC STATE with a combined average of 139.7 ppg. Dixon is 24-12 UNDER versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 18 or less free throws/game as the coach of COPPIN ST with a combined average of 139.6 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams against the total (NC STATE) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite, on Tuesday nights are 28-5 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with a combined average of 130.5 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams against the total (COPPIN ST) - off an upset win as a road underdog, a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season are 77-33 L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 133.1 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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12-05-22 | Bucks v. Magic OVER 225 | 109-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Orlando has allowed an average of 116.1 ppg at home this season and rank 27th in the league in defensive efficiency and Im betting the visiting Milwaukee Bucks will breach that output here today and for the Magic in chasing fashion to put up enough points for us to cash an over ticket. MILWAUKEE in 25 road tilts versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons a combined average score of 226.1 ppg have gone on the scoreboard. Over is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings in Orlando. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (ORLANDO) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or better of their shots are 25-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 239.8 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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12-05-22 | Avalanche v. Flyers UNDER 6 | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Colorado has seen 9 of their L11 games stay on the low side of the total, while Philadelphia has failed to eclipse 5 of their L/6 totals offerings. Im betting on these trends continuing to favor the under based on matchup projections. Under is 4-0 in Avalanche last 4 vs. Metropolitan.Under is 5-1-1 in Avalanche last 7 road games. Under is 4-0-2 in Flyers last 6 vs. Central. Under is 4-0 in Flyers last 4 home games. COLORADO is 8-2 UNDER against struggling power play killing teams-opp score on 19% or more of chances this season. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (COLORADO) - tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the first half of the season are 46-17 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (COLORADO) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 0.5+ goals/game, after a blowout loss by 4 goals or more in their previous game are 47-17 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-04-22 | Northwestern v. Michigan State OVER 126.5 | 70-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections estimate a Total that should be closer to 132 thus giving us value with an over wager here as we have a more than two possession edge based on my numbers. NORTHWESTERN is 10-0 OVER L/10 off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite with a combined average of 129 ppg scored. MICHIGAN ST is 9-2 OVER after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 146.5 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is 129.5 or less (MICHIGAN ST) - excellent ball handling team - committing 12 or less turnovers/game, after 4 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers are 50-18 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate with a combined average of 132.4 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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12-03-22 | Hurricanes v. Kings UNDER 6 | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
Carolina thanks to a strong defensive style game, have seen 10 of their L/13 games stay ont he low side of the total. Here on the road on tired legs Im expecting a very conservative transitional game plan that will help keep this score on the low side of the offered total. CAROLINA is 12-4 UNDER (+7.6 Units) in road games against poor starting goalies - saving 89.5% or less of shots against over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 5.1 gpg .
Under is 10-2 in Hurricanes last 12 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 8-2 in Hurricanes last 10 overall.Under is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 games following a win.Under is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 Saturday games.Under is 6-2 in Hurricanes last 8 vs. Western Conference.Under is 6-2 in Hurricanes last 8 road games. Under is 4-1-1 in Kings last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (CAROLINA) - tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season in the first half of the season are 103-48 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. Under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in Los Angeles. Play UNDER |
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12-03-22 | St. Mary's v. Houston OVER 118.5 | 48-53 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
Dickies Arena - Fort Worth, TX My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Houston can run and gun and play solid D. We know St.Marys will try to grind this game down to halt in order to be competitive, but Houston will dictate the pace and not allow the Gaels to get into a comfort zone forcing them to open up or be completely embarrassed. This Im betting leads to a higher scoring affair than the linesmkaers are expecting. HOUSTON in their L/11 as a neutral court favorite or pick over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 128.4 ppg .HOUSTON is 7-0 OVER in road games after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less since 1997 with a combined average of 143.5 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is 129.5 or less (HOUSTON) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 29-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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12-03-22 | LSU v. Georgia UNDER 52.5 | 30-50 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
SEC Championship Game - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA This total has steamed up by almost 5 points since opening and now that it's been over done Ill come back and take a contrarian stance and hit the under offering. Georgia has allowed 12.4 ppg on the road this season.The Dawgs have allowed 20 or less points in their L/7 games.( 10, 0, 20, 13, 19, 6, 14) Im betting Georgia will not allow more than 17 this week, while my own projections estimate a 31 point offensive output . GEORGIA is 6-0 UNDER when they score 29 to 35 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 42.8 ppg scored. Kelly is 16-6 UNDER in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 49.9 ppg scored. GEORGIA is 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 47.4 ppg scored. CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (LSU) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 35-8 UNDER L/30 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with a combined average of 43 ppg scored. CFB team against the total (GEORGIA) - outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 5 straight games are 44-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate with a combined average of 46.5 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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12-03-22 | Tenn-Martin v. North Carolina-Asheville OVER 150.5 | 83-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Two teams with capable run and gun offense go head to head here this Saturday. . UNC Ashville has averaged 83.5 ppg in 2 home tilts so far this season while Tenn Martin averages 81 points per game overall while allowing 78 ppg on the road. CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (TENN-MARTIN) - after a home game where both teams scored 75 points or more against opponent off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite are 28-4 L/26 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. Play OVER |
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12-02-22 | North Texas v. UTSA UNDER 70 | 27-48 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
C-USA Championship Game North Texas has allowed 17 or less points in 3 of their L/4 games and are capable of staling the Roadrunners offense. Meanwhile, UTSA has allowed 7 points exact in two of their L/3. With this being a championship game, Im betting the action will not be as wide open as reg season action, and a more chess like game will be played. Im not saying is will be a defensive sleeper, but I am betting the final score will not top this steamed up offering. UTSA is 7-0 UNDER sub par defensive teams - allowing 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 49.8 ppg scored. CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 70 (UTSA) - off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season are 25-3 UNDER L/31 seasons for a 89% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 62.4 ppg. Play UNDER |
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 43.5 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER as a road favorite this season with a combined average of 43 ppg scored. But with this prime time game registering like a play off affair Im betting on an even lower combined score in what Im betting will be a grinding affair. New England's consistency on offense is something that aids us tonight with this wager. They do not rank in the top half of the league in any statistical category. The Pats had some production last week vs the Vikings defense that ranks 31st in the league and dead last against the pass. But that wont be the case here vs a Buffalo D, that despite of inconsistencies is ready and capable of standing tall here tonight. Yes, last weeks Buffalos D failed it, but they will be primed for a complete game bounce back. Last week, Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson used a lot of pre-snap motion and formations to generate one-on-one matchups, but the Pats are not capable of this with this current group . NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - versus division opponents, off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite are 27-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 37.3 ppg going on the board. NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ENGLAND) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 61-24 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 41.6 ppg. Play UNDER |
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12-01-22 | Mavs v. Pistons OVER 221.5 | 125-131 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
With top player Cade Cunningham sidelined due to a shin injury, the Pistons are finding it difficult to stay competitive, and tonight the Mavericks knowing how vulnerable their opponents are will be very aggressive especially on offense. This Im betting leads to a fairly wide open affair, that easily eclipses this total. Note: Detroit ranks 29th in the league in ppg allowed defense and 29th in defensive efficiency. Over is 12-5 in Mavericks last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. DETROIT is 13-4 OVER in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228.9 ppg scored. Over is 8-3-1 in Pistons last 12 home games. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DETROIT) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a good defensive team (104-108 PPG), after allowing 130 points or more are 45-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate with a combined average score of 234.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DALLAS) - after one or more consecutive overs, a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG).are 72-34 L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 230.4 ppg. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Detroit. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Play over |
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12-01-22 | Avalanche v. Sabres UNDER 6.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Colorado was beaten up on by the Winnipeg Jets last time out by a 5-0 count. Now awake and in redemption mode I expect a shutdown performance from the road side tonight which will result in a lower scoring affair.COLORADO is 13-4 L/17 UNDER in road games after a huge blowout loss by 5 goals or more in their previous game with a combined average of 4.9 gpg scored. COLORADO is 7-1 UNDER against good offensive teams like Buffalo- 29 or more shots on goal, convert 17%or better pp this season. Under is 4-0 in Avalanche last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 5-0 in Avalanche last 5 road games.Under is 7-1 in Avalanche last 8 overall.Under is 5-1 in Avalanche last 6 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Avalanche last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 10-3 in Avalanche last 13 Thursday games. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (COLORADO) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 0.65+ goals/game, after a blowout loss by 4 goals or more in their previous game are 32-7 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-01-22 | Youngstown State v. Northern Kentucky OVER 141.5 | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My totals projection is 144 on this total thus giving us a full one possession edge on the number. YOUNGSTOWN ST is 9-2 OVER in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 144.4 ppg scored. YOUNGSTOWN ST is 15-4 OVER L/19 as a road favorite of 6 points or less or pick with s combined average of 144.8 ppg scored. YOUNGSTOWN ST is 9-1 OVER in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 152.6 ppg scored. YOUNGSTOWN ST is 8-1 OVER after a win by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 149.9 ppg going on the board. Over is 4-0 in Penguins last 4 games following a ATS win.Over is 6-1 in Penguins last 7 overall.Over is 6-1 in Penguins last 7 games following a straight up win.Over is 5-1 in Penguins last 6 road games.Over is 4-1-1 in Penguins last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Over is 5-1 in Norse last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Over is 9-2 in Norse last 11 Thursday games. CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (N KENTUCKY) - off a home win scoring 85 or more points, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 39-11 OVER L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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11-30-22 | New Mexico v. St. Mary's OVER 136 | 69-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. NEW MEXICO is 6-0 OVER in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 80% or more) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 165.5 ppg. NEW MEXICO is 9-1 OVER after 2 straight covers as a double digit favorite since 199 with a combined average of 145.3 ppg. scored. NEW MEXICO is 9-1 OVER after 2 straight covers as a double digit favorite since 1997 with a combined average of 140.1 ppg. CBB Road teams against the total (NEW MEXICO) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division 1-A conferences are 25-5 OVER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with a combined average of 147.1 ppg scored. Play over |
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11-30-22 | Clippers v. Jazz OVER 225.5 | 112-125 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My owns projections estimate a combined score of 227 plus points , which gives us value on this offering .Utah averages 116.7 (4th of 30) while allowing 115.5 (22nd of 30). Meanwhile, the Clippers are essentially on the other side of the spectrum offensively and defensively, but as they showed us last night are reving up offensively and off a 118 output while allowing 112 points in a victory vs the Blazers. On tired legs tonight the Clippers in the high altitudes of Salt Lake City wont have the energy needed to play strong D, and this Im betting helps this combined score eclipse this offering. Over is 5-1-1 in Clippers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (UTAH) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or better of their shots are 31-5 OVER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 235.8 ppg scored. NBAl teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (UTAH) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are 22-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average with a combined average of 239.9 ppg scored. Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings. Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Utah. Play OVER |
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11-28-22 | Pittsburgh v. Northwestern OVER 127.5 | 87-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Capel III is 24-14 OVER off a home win as the coach of PITTSBURGH with a combined average of 138.6 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (NORTHWESTERN) - after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games against opponent after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more are 22-3 L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 134.3 ppg scored. teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (PITTSBURGH) - after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games against opponent after allowing 65 points or less 4 straight games are 38-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 130 points going on the board. Play OVER |
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11-28-22 | Golden Knights v. Blue Jackets UNDER 6.5 | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
The Golden Knights looked lethargic at times in Friday's 4-2 loss to Seattle, then fell behind 5-0 after two periods of an eventual 5-1 loss and now Im betting they pickup their defensive work here tonight and pay more attention in transition. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets last played this past Friday at home when they were flipped in 3-2 by the New York Islanders. Im betting after an ugly start to their campaign, that a new focus on playing responsible Defensive hockey will continue. VEGAS is 7-1 UNDER after a division game this season with a combined average of 5 gpg scored. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (VEGAS) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 0.65+ goals/game, after a blowout loss by 4 goals or more in their previous game are 31-7 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with a combined average of 5 gpg scored. Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. Play UNDER |
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11-27-22 | Xavier v. Gonzaga UNDER 159.5 | 84-88 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Veterans Memorial Coliseum - Portland, OR My projections estimate a combined score of no more than 155 points which adds significant value to us taking an under stance here. This estimate is above long term trend factors and gives us cushion room, but is viable with a 2 or more possession edge factor. XAVIER is 22-8 UNDER L/30 in road games after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers with a combined average of 139.1 ppg scored. GONZAGA L/19 games against Big East conference opponents since 1997 have seen a combined average of 146.1 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (Xavier/GONZAGA) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%) are 34-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 140.2 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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11-27-22 | Saints v. 49ers OVER 42.5 | 0-13 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 42 m | Show | |
The 49ers offense is multi dimensional with McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell at running back, receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, and tight end George Kittle. Im betting this group. matches up well for the Saints D, and does some damage . On the flispide Andy Dolton and the Saints despite of some inconsistencies put 27 points on the Rams last week in a victory and should not be underestimated in their ability to do have decent output vs. a strong SF D. Note:The Saints stand 8th in the league in passing offense with 237.5 yards per game and Im betting the 49ers will force them to bomb away as SF goes above their expected offensive output average. NFC WEST home teams like the 49ers vs any NFC SOUTH opponent like New Orleans , when the Total offering is 43 or more points are 10-1 OVER L/4 seasons. New Orleans and the SF 49ers have gone over 9 straight times here in California with a combined average of 52.5 ppg going on the board! Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 vs. NFC. Play OVER |
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11-26-22 | UT-Rio Grande Valley v. Texas UNDER 146 | 54-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Leon Black Classic - Gregory Gymnasium - Austin, TX TEXAS is 95-53 UNDER as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1997 with a combined average of 134.9 ppg scored. Under is 43-18 in Longhorns last 61 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Under is 37-16 in Longhorns last 53 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (UTRGV) - an excellent offensive team (76 or more PPG) against an excellent defensive team (63 or less PPG), after 2 straight games where both teams score 75 points or more are 24-3 UNDERV L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (TEXAS) - good defensive team from last season - shooting pct defense of 42%, or less hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47% or better of their shots.91-51 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-25-22 | Kings v. Celtics UNDER 237.5 | 104-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
My own projections estimate a combined score of 230 . Thus we have value with taking the under in this public centric Totals offering. Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 7-3 in Celtics last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. SACRAMENTO is 27-12 UNDER in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 225.1 ppg scored.SACRAMENTO is 34-16 UNDER off a road loss over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 224.1 ppg . NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 70-36 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 66% conversion rate. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 42-16 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. NBA team (BOSTON) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games are 127-72 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate. Under is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings in Boston. Play on the UNDER |
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11-24-22 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss UNDER 59.5 | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 32 h 29 m | Show | |
No matter what stats both offensively or defensively have been recorded by either side this season should be discarded and it must be noted that this is a heated rivalry that is often very physical and grueling. This kind of battle also usually ends in a lower scoring affair as compared to the totals offering. These teams have gone under in 10 of their L/13 meetings in Ole Miss and in the two most recent battles these teams did not eclipse hefty totals of 71 and 65.5 with both tilts coming well under theses numbers registering in at 52 and 55 points respectively. OLE MISS is 8-1 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 53 points going on the board.OLE MISS is 10-2 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 53.6 ppg scored. Under is 5-0 in Bulldogs last 5 road games. 80% Chance of rain in Oxford Thursday night. CFB team against the total (MISSISSIPPI ST) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 191-113 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-24-22 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 45.5 | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 37 m | Show | |
The Giants were torched for 31 points last time out vs Detroit in a loss and now Im betting will be more focused and prepared to try to pair up their defense, by trying to slow this game down to a grind by using their running game , especially knowing they will be playing an explosive Dallas offense. Meanwhile, Dallas behind a strong D, allowing just 16.2 ppg at home this season will once again be hard to score on. This above mentioned combo Im betting will lead to a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total. NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 31.5 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 9-1 UNDER off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 23-8 UNDER vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.3 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 35.8 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 21-8 UNDER in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored. Under is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 7-0 in Giants last 7 games in Week 12.Under is 8-1 in Giants last 9 games in November.Under is 20-5-2 in Giants last 27 games on fieldturf.Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 road games.Under is 21-6-1 in Giants last 28 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 15-5-1 in Giants last 21 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 15-5-1 in Giants last 21 games following a double-digit loss at home.Under is 9-3-2 in Giants last 14 vs. NFC.Under is 3-1-1 in Giants last 5 vs. NFC East.Under is 18-7-1 in Giants last 26 games following a ATS loss.Under is 18-7-1 in Giants last 26 games following a straight up loss.Under is 33-16-2 in Giants last 51 games overall. DALLAS is 9-2 UNDER versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43.3 ppg scored. Under is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 home games.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.Under is 13-3-1 in Cowboys last 17 games on fieldturf NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DALLAS) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games are 61-28 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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11-23-22 | UMass Lowell v. Brown UNDER 145.5 | 73-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. . CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (UMASS-LOWELL) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, in a game involving two teams that had marginal losing records (40 to 49%) last season are 38-8 UNDER L/25 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with the combined average of 135.6 ppg scored. Play on the under |
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11-21-22 | Nevada v. Tulane UNDER 145.5 | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections make this line closer to 140 which gives us two full possession advantage. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (TULANE/NEVADA) - in a game involving two teams that had marginal losing records (40 to 49%) last season are 45-7 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate with. combined average of 133.9 ppg scored. Play UNDER |