UNC vs Kansas 
NCAA Championship Game  

4% Best Bet on North Carolina plus the points and a 1% bet on the money line. 

I like North Carolia to be leading at the half and to win the game at +700 at betMGM 
UNC –2 points +190 at Draftkings 
OVER First-Half Points 71.5 points –115 at BetMGM 

What Villanova lacked in length to defend Kansas’ McCormack, UNC has more than enough length, and I see them minimizing McCormack throughout the entire game. Then Agbaji, the stud Kansas leader is going to have to be far more involved and creative and I see the UNC starters and depth off the bench getting that minimized as well. Simply said, I see UNC as the better team and the fact that they are the underdog again, will allow them to play lose and free and at full strength. I know that the last four and 11 of the last 16 Champions have been 1-seeds, but this UNC team is vastly different than any other non-1-seed team, especially seeds greater than 4, in Tournament history.  
UNC is on a 12-4 ATS run since game number 15 of this season, 14-5 ATS when facing sa team that is making at least 45% of their shots in games played in each of their last two seasons, and 15-6-1 ATS when facing solid ball handling teams averaging 14 or fewer turnovers per game after game number 15 of the current season. Kansas is just 2-9 ATS facing defensive teams that are averaging 12 or fewer forced turnovers per game spanning the last two season. 

Supporting the upset, UNC is 7-1 against the money line (making +6.7 Units per Unit wagered) when they make 31% to 37% of their three-point shot attempts in a game this season, 11-2 against the money line (+10.8 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game over the last two seasons, and 8-2 against the money line (+11.5 Units) in games where both teams score 75 or more points this season. 

Thank you to every one of you that supported me and long hours of research to provide you the absolute best sports betting research possible. Every season I feel a tremendous need to give thanks to and be 100% grateful for every one of you. Next Sports up is MLB, so make certain you get the 75% discounted season-long package on my profile page this week.  

Southern Utah vs Fresno State 

The Basketball Classic Semifinals 
10 ET, 3/28 

4% bet OVER the posted total 
3% bet on FSU minus the points 
NO PARLAY HERE 

FSU head coach Hutson is 9-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games, 35-20-1 ATS following a home game, and 16-6-1 ATS following two consecutive home games.  

From my predictive models, we learn that FSU is 8-0-1 Over when scoring 70 or more points and making at least 12 free throws in games played over the last three seasons.  

Southern Utah vs Fresno State 

The Basketball Classic Semifinals 
10 ET, 3/28 

4% bet OVER the posted total 
3% bet on FSU minus the points 
NO PARLAY HERE 

FSU head coach Hutson is 9-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games, 35-20-1 ATS following a home game, and 16-6-1 ATS following two consecutive home games.  

From my predictive models, we learn that FSU is 8-0-1 Over when scoring 70 or more points and making at least 12 free throws in games played over the last three seasons.  

St. Peters vs North Carolina 
5:05 PM EST, March 27, 2022 

4% best bet on North Carolina minus the points 

The St. Peters Peacocks have become the first 15-seed to ever make the Elite-8 Round and will most assuredly be the topic of a documentary movie down the road – and a well-deserved one. However, my models, which do not have any pulse rate or the heart that the Peacocks team has put on display and is arguably the best example of why we love March Madness, indicate that their run is going to end here against no-less than an 8-seed North Carolia Tarheels team. The media, including Lunardi, mocked the ACC Conference and what they missed in a big way was the fact that the top teams in that loop were not having off years, because NC State, Georgia Tech, and other were having of years. If there is one huge take-away from this post season is to be careful when assigning a ‘off season’ discount to any of the Major-6 Conferences. I even heard. Rumor that Loyola-Chicago's biggest fan Sister jean had entered the transfer portal to join St. Peters. (Ha Ha) 

Betting on favorites after beating the spread by 45 or more points in total spanning their last seven games and now facing an opponent that has beat the number by a total of 55 or more points over their last 10 games has earned a highly profitable 49-16-2 ATS for 75% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and is 14-1 ATS for 93.3% winning bets over the last three seasons. 

UNC is 10-2 ATS in the second half of each of the last three seasons when taking on winning record foe and 9-1 ATS when taking on a foe that is outscoring their opponents by at least 4 or more points per game in games played over the last two season. 

What UNC has that Purdue did not is the perimeter threat from many players on the floor. Purdue failed to penetrate the crowded paint are and then move the move the ball swiftly to the perimeter for wide-open shots. When they did, the shots were not made. I think UNC will exploit this from start to finish and force St. Peters to stop packing the paint area and spread them out across the court to defend perimeter shooters. UNC will force St. Peters to expend ton of energy trying to cover the side-to-side ball movement. Eventually, when they wear down and are reduced to a defender running at an open shooter, that shooter will fake the shot and drive to the rim.  

Nothing at all at the greatest and accomplishments of St. Peters, but this is North Carolina.  

Texas Tech vs Duke 

4% Best bet on Texas Tech minus the single point, if this line moves to –1.5 to –2.5, then bet this game using the money line. 

When I write just a few of incredible accomplishments that Coach K has achieved, it becomes even more incredible just seeing it in black and white – if that makes any sense. The Duke basketball program is in the Sweet 16 for the 28th time and Coach-K is looking for his 100th NCAA Tournament victory. He has won a record 1,200 overall games in 47 seasons (42 at Duke) as he heads down the home stretch of his career. How coincidental are these achievements that are at exactly century and multi-century marks.  

He is also two victories away from reaching his 13th Final Four. I do remember that the number 13 has some scary connotations.  

This is a matchup that I see focused on ball handling where Duke is ranked 2nd in the nation sporting a 1.644 assist to turnover ratio against a Texas Tech defense that ranks 9th with a 0.690 defensive assist to turnover ratio. Then on the other side of the court, we have a Texas Tech offense that ranks 166th with a 1.006 assist to turnover ratio going up against a conservative Duke defense ranking 315th with a poor 1.249 defensive assist to turnover ratio. Plus, Tech ranks 6th in scoring defense allowing 60.2 points per game. Duke will look to increase the pace of play while Tech will look to get this game in the mud and to be as physical as the referees will permit.  

So, teams in the Sweet-16, Elite-8, and Final-4, are the favorite, and have a defense allowing 60 to 65 points per game on the season have gone on to a 45-26-2 ATS record good for 63.4% winning bets over the last 15 NCAA Tournaments. Using this simple betting system, you would have made profits in each of the past 7 events, and this is the first one of this event. 

Michigan vs Villanova 

7:29 PM EST, March 23, 2022 

4% best bet Under the posted total 

The last time these two programs met in San Antonio on the basketball court was in the 2016 NCAA Championship game won by Villanova. The Wildcats look to be poised for another Championship run here in San Antonio and credit goes to head coach Jay Wright for having the courage to load up the front end of the season with top-rated superior teams. That ‘seasoning’ is now going to pay off for the remainder of their Tournament run starting tonight. 

When away from Ann Arbor, Michigan is 7-0 Under after two consecutive games attempting 10 or fewer shots than the opponent and 31-15 Under following two consecutive games where the opponent was called for five or more fouls than they were called for. Villanova is on a 7-1 Under run when playing in a neutral court settling and installed as the favorite. 

For his entire career at Villanova, Jay Wright is 45-27-2 Under when facing a marginal winning team sporting a win percentage not higher than 60%, 32-20-3 Under when playing against a winning record team with a win percentage not higher in than 60% in the second half of each season (after game number 15) 

From my predictive models, we are expecting to see a well-played matchup within a slower than average pace of play. The spread and total are telling us that Villanova will win 70.25-64.75 or 70-65. They are also projected to make no higher than 37% from beyond the arc OR not make more than 11 3-pointers in total and not score more than 75 points. In past games when not playing at home, the Wildcats have gone 5-14-2 Over-Under for 74% wining bets when not scoring more than 75 points and not making more than 11 3-pointers in games played since 2019. Michigan is 5-10 Over-Under for 67% winning Under bets in games where they did not make more than 6 3-pointers and did not score more than 70 points.  

Arkansas vs Gonzaga 

7:09 PM EST, Thursday, March 24, 2022 
4% Best Bet on Arkansas plus the points and a 1.0% amount sprinkled on the money line. The current line is Arkansas getting 9.5 points.  

Playing the LIVE in-game betting lines and taking advantage of the scoring volatility that this game is likely to have through the 40 minutes of play gives rise to the following strategy that I have used hundreds of times. Consider betting Arkansas pre-flop (before the tip) getting the +9.5 points for a 50% amount of your 4% betting amount (Or a 2% betting amount), the look to add 25% more (1% best bet) at Arkansas +11.5 and +14.5 points during the first half only.  

This is one of the best NCAA Basketball money line betting systems and has earned a 32-21 straight-up record for 60% winning bets over the last five seasons and has made the $1,000 bettor a profit of $40,500 by averaging a whopping +190.3 money line wager. Bet on a solid defensive team allowing 40 to 42.5% shooting on the season and is now facing a team that has posted four consecutive games making at least 50% of their shots and is also making 47.5% of their shots on the season. So, I like to call this money line betting system the “Mother of all Regression Betting Systems”. 

Arkansas is 13-2 straight-up when facing a team that is making at least 45% of their shots on the season in each of the last two seasons and has made the $1,000 bettor a profit of $13,700 in this role. Arkansas is 8-2-1 ATS when facing teams that attempt an average of at least 21 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons. Gonzaga is 1-9 ATS following back-to-back games forcing just eight or fewer turnovers in each of the two games. Arkansas is 12-3-1 ATS after winning two of their last three games and a perfect 7-0 ATS after allowing 50 or fewer points spanning the last three seasons. 

Delaware vs Villanova 

2:45 PM EST, March 18, 2022 
4% best bet on the UNDER 

The total for this game is 133.5 points and has not moved from that opening price. One live in-game strategy worth considering and one that I will look to execute is to bet 50% of your 4% betting amount pre-flop and then hope to see a faster than expected pace at the start of the game. If that happens look to add the remaining 50% at 139.5 points during the first half only. To bet in-game in the second half has a significantly reduced ROI simply because there is less time to be correct. The worst case is that 139.5 is not made available during the first half of play which implies that we are correct on the 4% Under bet looking good to cover. You can also bet 80% pre flop and look to add 20% at 139.5 points. Send me a Direct Message on Twitter @JohnRyanSports1 if you have any questions. 

Betting the Under in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in a matchup of teams that have won 60 to 80% of their games on the season has earned a 67-29-1 Under record good for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons. Delaware is 8-2 Under when playing against a team with a win percentage between 60 and 80% this season. Nova is 6-0 Under as a favorite on a neutral court this season and 13-4 Under coming off a win of six or fewer points in games played over the last three seasons. 

Montana State vs Texas Tech 

1:45 PM EST, March 18, 2022 

4% bet on the Montana State Bobcats plus the points. 

The line opened making the Bobcats a 15-point underdog and has remained at this level amid balanced betting action. My predictive models point to the fact that the betting community is paying too much (almost like a tax) for the privilege of betting the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Bobcats won the Big Sky Tournament earning their ticket as a 14 seed. Texas Tech reached the Big 12 tournament final, where it fell to Kansas 74-65.  

Last season, the Bobcats lost in the conference final, and it has turned out to be a blessing. Third-year head coach Danny Sprinkle had three seniors form that squad exercise their COVID option for a fifth season. As expected, the trio are the leaders of the Bobcats. Xavier Bishop tops Montana State in scoring (13.9 points per game) and assists (4.3). Jubrile Belo is averaging 13.0 points per game and tops the team in rebounds averaging 6.8 per game, and blocks averaging 1.8 per game. Abdul Mohamed contributes 7.8 points per game and 6.6 boards per game. 

The Bobcats are 11-2 ATS when facing solid rebounding teams averaging four or more rebounds per game than their opponents in games played over the last three seasons. Texas Tech is 0-6 ATS in road games when facing teams averaging 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  

The Bobcats are 10-2 ATS in road or neutral settings after playing a game as a favorite, 9-2 ATS in road or neutral settings coming off two or more consecutive wins, and 10-2 ATS in all tournaments games over the last three seasons. 

Loyola vs Ohio State 

12:15 PM EST, March 18, 2022 

4% best bet on the Ohio State Buckeyes 

The seventh-seeded Buckeyes (19-11) and 10th-seeded Ramblers (25-7) will meet in Pittsburgh at the PPG Paints Arena on Friday in a first-round game set to tip-off at 12:15 PM EST. Loyola is on a roll winner of three straight to win their second consecutive Missouri Valley Conference Title and are making their third appearance of the past five seasons in the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State is not on a roll and were upset by a surging Penn State squad in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament.  

Last year while on the LIVE Manny’s Irish Pub Show, Rob Veno kept me informed of the last 1:50 of last year’s Ohio State vs Orla Roberts game. I got Oral Roberts at +950 on the money line trailing by just two points with 1:50 left and knowing that they were the best free throw shooting team in the nation. I sometimes cannot watch a game feeling I may jinx and hope of winning such a bet, so Rob Veno of WagerTalk kept me apprised during our show and man alive that was some great fun I will never forget.  

Ohio State was a 2-seed and there was immense pressure on them to win. However, this season they are not under the media spotlight and come into this game as one of the more underrated teams in the event. An early loss in the Big Ten tourney might be a blessing for the the Buckeyes, who had to make up two games late in the season and played seven games in 16 days to end the regular season March 6. Then followed by the loss to Penn State four days later.  

Everyone loves Loyola and their great story and I do as well, but I cannot bet that way as a pro bettor. The value here is certainly with Ohio State and I believe they come away with the win.  

OSU is 9-1 ATS in road games when facing solid shooting teams that are making 45% or more of their shots in the second half, after game number 15, of each of the past two seasons. They are 8-0 ATS in the second half of each of the past two seasons when facing a foe that is outscoring their opponents by 8 or more points per game. Loyola is just 10-23 ATS in the second half of each of the past three seasons when facing a team that is averaging 21 or more 4-points hot attempts.  

Notre Dame vs Rutgers 

9:10 PM EST, March 16, 2022 

4% Best Bet Under the posted total 

Notre Dame and Rutgers will be the participants in the last “Play-In” game prior to the March Madness Insanity begins in earnest Thursday. I thought Rutgers had earned a spot in the bracket by virtue of how well they did play down the stretch. This reflects that the committee only looks at quality of wins and the full-season body of work to give a team a thumbs up or thumbs down vote. I’d like to see more weighting for those teams that played hot down the stretch that would then bump out the teams that finished the regular season in a stumbling manner.  

The former Big East Conference rivals ended up earning two of the last four at-large bids into the 2022 field and will play each other in a First Four game Wednesday night at Dayton, Ohio. The winner will earn a No. 11 seed and move on to play sixth-seeded Alabama on Friday. 

This Under bet is backed by a simple to use betting system that has earned a 200-276 Over-Under record good for 58% winning Under bets spanning the last 15 seasons and is on a 19-42 Over-Under record for 69% winning Under bets spanning the last two seasons. The requirements are to bet the Under in games played in March with a team that allowed 85 or more points in their previous game. Plus, a subset that filters out only the games played with a total between 130 and 135 points that has earned a 17-33 Over-Under record good for 67% winning Under bets over the last 15 seasons. 

Iowa vs Purdue 

3:30 PM EST, March 13, 2022 

4% bet on the UNDER in this Big Ten Championship matchup. 

Iowa’s offense was quite good at the beginning of the season, but now is monumentally better right now than the first time these two teams met. They play fast ranking 5th nationally averaging 64.6 shots per game and the nation’s best ball handling team sporting 1.74 assists to turnover ratio. However, now the betting total has been overpriced by the betting community and both teams are prone to scoring below their average score per game. 

Betting the Under in a game being played on a neutral court, with a total between 150 and 159.5 points, after the 15th game of the regular season including Tournament action, and two teams that are allowing 42.5% to 45% shooting on the season has earned an insanely profitable 32-4 Under record good for 89% winning bets over the last five seasons.  

For March Madness moving forward, totals in the month of March ranging between 150 and 159.5 points, in games being played on a neutral site have gone 176-128-6 Under for 58% winners since 2006. In April games, the Under is 5-1.  

Canisius vs Fairfield 

4% best bet on Canisuis 

This matchup involves a first-round game in the Metro Atlantic Tournament being held at the Boardwalk in Atlantic City, NJ. Canisius is 6-0 ATS when facing teams who are attempting an average of 21 or more three-point shots per game on the season and after the 15th game of the regular season. Fairfield is 3-13 ATS After a combined score of 115 or fewer points were scored. In games played over the last three seasons. They are also 3-15 ATS after A game in which they made 20% or worse, of their three point shot attempts in games played over the last three seasons. Take Canisius as a 4% Best Bet 

Rider vs Manhattan 

4% best bet on the Rider Broncos at pick-em or better 

This is a first-round matchup in the Metro Atlantic Tournament being contested on the Boardwalk in Atlantic City. Rider is 7-1 ATS after three straight games in which they forced the opponents to commit 14 or fewer turnovers in games played this season. Manhattan is 6-18 ATS after three consecutive conference games have been played in each of the last three seasons. Rider is 17-6-1 ATS After playing two consecutive games. Installed as an underdog in games played over the last three seasons. 

NC State vs Clemson 
4% Best bet on NC State plus the points 

Here is a highly profitable betting system that has earned a 62-25-2 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a straight up loss to the current opponent and werepriced as a favorite and with that opponent coming off two consecutive wins by five or fewer points to conference rivals.  

Clemson is 3-14 ATS in road games in road games after three consecutive games where the opponent grabbed 31 or fewer rebounds.  

Nebraska vs Penn State 

7 ET 

4% Best Bet on the Under the posted total 

PSU is 31-14 Under when playing a game in the second half of the season (after game number 15) and taking on a team with a losing record and 23-9 Under when playing a struggling team with a win percentage between 20 and 40% on the season. They are 16-3 Under as a double-digit home favorite and 12-3 Under in the month of February, 11-3 Under after allowing 30 or fewer points in the first half of each of the last two games, and 7-1 Under following four consecutive games committing 14 or fewer turnovers and 6-0 Under following five games. 

West Virginia vs TCU 
5% best bet UNDER the total of 132.5 points. I do believe that you will see this line moving higher in price. So, I recommend that you place 5)0% of your normal 5% bet size now and then as we get through the Monday hours ahead of game time look to add the other 50% at a price higher than the first bet. If the market does not move higher than simply add the 50% remaining amount within one hour of game time if possible.

TCU is 82-48 Under for 63% winners coming off a double-digit loss to a conference foe and if suffering this double-digit loss on the road they are 52-30 Under for 64% winners. Even just coming off a double-digit loss regardless if a conference foe or not or site location, they have produced a 91-60 Under record for 60% winning bets. Over the last three season, TCU is 16-6 Under for 73% winners after losing by double-digits to a conference for in their previous game.

The month of February is when the contenders seperate themselves form the pretenders and head coaches look to start coaching more aggressively and with more inspiration for his players. West Virginia’s skipper Huggins is this type of coach and his teams have a tendency every season to play their best in the month of February – and that starts on the defensive end. Huggins is 31-19 Under in games played in February and 77-53 Under when facing a team on the road that is forcing 14 or fewer turnovers on the seasons.
From my predictive models the projections are that neither team is going to score 65 or more points. TCU is 72-20 Under in games in which they allowed 60 to 65 points. They are also 18-10 Under when they have held their opponent to 40 to 45% shooting over the last three seasons.

Arkansas vs Alabama 

4% Best Bet on Alabama minus the points 

This is a matchup in which the market has overvalued Arkansas and undervalued Alabama. Arkansas has won 9 straight games and are 8-2 ATS over the last 10 games. The Tide is 156-9 on the season and have covered 9 of those games while losing 14 and are just 2-8 ATS over their last 10.  

Arkansas is coming off a program hallmark in defeating then No.1 Auburn 80-76 on their home floor as 1.5-point underdogs. So, an overall performance regression is likely for Arkansas. Tide was ranked 14th in the preseason polls and as high as No. 6 in the poll released the week of December 13. They have not been ranked in the past 4 weeks and are a team that has all the strengths and talent to regain a ranking in the polls in the weeks ahead.  

Arkansas is 5-16 ATS off an upset win installed as a home underdog.  

St. Joes vs UMASS 

Noon EST 
4% Best Bet on the St. Joes Hawks plus the points 

SJU is 7-0 ATS in the second half of each of the last two seasons when facing an opponent that is forcing an average of 14 or fewer turnovers per game. They are 11-3 ATS when facing teams that are committing an average of 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season. SJU head coach Lange is 9-1 ATS following a game in which his Hawks had two or fewer steals.  

Texas vs Baylor 

Noon 

4% best bet on Texas plus the points 

Texas is 8-1 ATS in road games following a game in which they made at least 78% of their free throws in games played over the last three seasons. They are also 13-3-1 ATS in road games off a win against a conference rival in games played over the last three seasons. Baylor head coach Drew is just 26-42 ATS after winning 15 or more of his Bears last 20 games. Texas skipper Beard is 13-3 ATS in road games in the second half of the season (After Game number 15) facing opponents averaging 16 or more assist per game.  

Northern Arizona vs Northern Colorado 
4% Best Bet on Northern Colorado minus the points 

NCU is 14-3 ATS when taking on an opponent that is averaging 14 or fewer forced turnovers per game in games played in the second half of each of the last three seasons; 27-14 ATS for full seasons. NAU is just 1-7 ATS this season in games lined between 140 and 149.5 points and 80-112 ATS over the last 25 seasons when playing their second game in three days.  

NAU head coach Burcar is a money-burning 9-18 ATS with the total between 140 and 149.5 points and just 12-22 ATS playing with revenge. This past Saturday NCU took to the road and defeated NAU 74-71, but failed to cover the number as 5.5 point-favorites. 

Arizona vs Arizona State 

4% best bet on Arizona minus the points.  I believe the market is more likely to see bets being placed on ASU getting double digits following their shocking triple overtime win over then-No.3 UCLA Saturday. So, consider betting 50% of your normal bet size right away and then look at the market after 5 EST and add the remaining 50%, hopefully at a lower price tag. 

ASU is 8-21 ATS when taking on an excellent ball handling team that is averaging 14 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons. ASU is 5-14 ATS in games lined with a total between 140 and 149.5 points. Arizona is 8-1 ATS in games lined with a total between 140 and 149 points this season. ASU is 25-44 ATS when priced as a double-digit underdog over the last 25 seasons.  

UNC-Wilmington vs Hofstra 
4% best bet on Hofstra minus the points.  

Hofstra is 25-12 ATS for 68% winning bets when taking on an opponent with a winning record in games played over the last three seasons. They are 26-12 ATS following a game in which they made at least 78% of their free throw attempts and 33-16 ATS coming off a home win and scoring 85 or more points.  

Monmouth vs Quinnipiac 
2:00 EST 
4% bet on the Monmouth Hawks minus the points. 

Betting on road favorites including pick-em that are coming off win of three or fewer points and facing a shot that has allowed 75 or more points in three consecutive games has earned a 42-19 ATS record for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons.  

Monmouth is 7-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning record this season. Quinnipiac is 5-17 ATS in the second half of each of the last 10 seasons when facing an opponent with a win percentage between 60 and 80%.  

Quinnipiac’s defense has fallen completely apart over their last three games. They allowed 87 points in a 94-87 win over Marist, then lost their two previous games on the road 85-76 to Sienna and then 83-74 at St. Peters.  

UCLA vs Arizona State 

4% best bet OVER the posted total 

Betting the OVER involving a home team that allowed 33% or worse opponent shooting in their last two games and in a matchup of two teams average at least 60 shots per game has earned a highly profitable 31-7 OVER record good for 82% winning bets over the last 25 seasons, 16-4 OVER for 80% winners the last five seasons, and 12-3 OVER for 80% over the last three seasons.  

UCLA is 8-1 OVER when facing an opponent that is making 42% or fewer of their shots.  

From the predictive models, UCLA is projected to score at least 75 points and in past games over the last three seasons when they have scored 75 or more points has seen the OVER go 14-2 for 78% winning bets. When ASU has allowed 75 or more points, the OVER has gone 15-5 for 75% winning bets spanning the last 3 seasons.  

Nebraska- Omaha vs North Dakota 
2:00 EST 
4% unit bets on Nebraska-Omaha plus the points. 

Nebraska is 6-0 ATS over the last two seasons facing solid free throw shooting teams making 72% or more and when the game occurred after game number 15.  

Nebraska is 15-5 ATS facing a suspect defense allowing opponents a 48% or higher shooting percentage. 

North Dakota is 0-6 ATS when facing a team with a losing record this season and 1-8 ATS the past two seasons facing a foe that is allowing 77 or more PPG.  

Towson State vs Northeastern 

2:00 EST 

4% on Northeastern plus the points 

Betting on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have been beaten by the spread by 42 points in total spanning their last seven games and taking on a host that has been beaten by the spread by 18 or more points in total over their last three games has earned a 63-25 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the last 25 seasons, 22-9 ATS over the last five seasons, and 10-5 over the last three seasons. 

Take the Northeastern Huskies 

Fordham vs St. Joes 

1:00 EST 
4-Unit Bets Bet on Fordham plus the points 

Betting on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that has seen their last seven games play under by a total of 48 or more points and is now facing an opponent after their last three games went over the posted totals by a combined 30 points has earned a 74-41 ATS record for 64% winners over the last five seasons.  

Fordham is also 7-0 ATS in the second half of each of the last three seasons facing a team that averages 12 or fewer forced turnovers per game. 

Kentucky vs Kansas 

10-UNIT game of the Month on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points. 

There are monumental traditions in this matchup starting with the head coaches. Calipari got his start in NCAA coaching at Kansas under Larry Brown, even met his wife at Kansas. Bill Self has been the head coach of Kansas for 19 seasons and got his start as a graduate assistant the year after Calipari left Kansas. How fate sometimes knows exactly what IT is doing. Now, the two winningest programs in Division-1 history face off with only a three-game deficit separating Kentucky (2,343-732) and Kansas (2,340-873) 

Jayhawk OchaiAgbaji has established himself as one of the nation's top threats and is coming off a career-high 37 points in a double-overtime win Monday against No. 13 Texas Tech. He presents all sorts of matchup problems for the Wildcats tonight. Agbaji averages 21.3 points, and Christian Braun chips in 15.3. No other Jayhawks average double figures, which reflects their significant depth, a strength Self taps using different combinations. The many different combinations that Self uses throughout any game is impossible for an opposing coach to match even if they do have a strong bench.  

Wildcats are just 7-22 ATS in road games with a posted total ranging between 150 and 159.5 points and 5-15 ATS following three consecutive conference games. Jayhawks are 32-15-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in six or seven of their last eight games and 68-36 ATS following a game in which they allowed 80 or more points and 33-16-1 ATS after allowing 85 or more points. Moreover, they are 42-24-2 ATS following a game in which both teams scored 80 or more points. In their previous game Kansas needed overtime to defeat Texas Tech 94-91.  

From my predictive models the following angles represent the projections for this game. Kentucky is just 24-55 ATS in road games allowing the host 47% or better shooting; 4-30 ATS 12% in road games allowing 80 to 86 points and 9-48 ATS 16% allowing 80 or more points in a road game. Kansas is 18-4-1 ATS 82% when scoring 80 or more points.  

Nebraska – Omaha vs UNLV

10:00 EST 12-15

4-Unit best bet on Nebraska – Omaha plus 19.5 points.

The bet is valid if Nebraska-Omaha (NOU) is a 17.5-point or greater underdog.

When is a nine-game losing streak a good thing? When the team we are betting is in a nine-game slide and there is a 77% ATS 25-year money-making machine supporting them. This angle has hit 77% ATS winners for the last 25 seasons on a 31-10 ATS record over the last 25 seasons and is 14-4 ATS over the last five seasons and is 4-0 ATS the past three seasons. Bet on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that have lost their last nine games in the month of December. The losing streak start in November, but the current game must be played in December.

Presbyterian vs Morehead State

7:00 PM EST, December 6, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER

My predictive models are suggesting that 130 or more points will be scored in this game. They also project that Morehead State will shoot at least 47% from the field and Presbyterian will have fewer turnovers than Morehead State and make at least seven 3-pointers. Presbyterian is 6-0 OVER in games where they made 6 or more 3-point shots. Morehead State is 19-7 OVER the past three seasons and 75-52 OVER the past 20 seasons when they have shot 47% or better from the field. Love the OVER

Baylor vs Gonzaga
NCAA 2021 National Championship Game

9:00 PM EST, April 5, 2021

4% Best bet UNDER the posted total of 159 points.

How in the world is this Championship Game even come close to matching the drama of the UCLA vs Gonzaga semifinal game, which is at the top of the All-Time greatest games in any sport. I do see this game being a physical war between these two juggernaut programs, who were ranked 1 and 2 in the nation throughout the season.

Betting on the UNDER in neutral court settings with a total between 150.5 and 160 points in a matchup where the one team, Gonzaga, has scored 75 or more points in at least two consecutive games and now facing an opponent, Baylor, who is coming off a game in which they scored at least 40 or more points in the first-half of their last game has earned a solid 110-57-1 UNDER record for 67% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. If the ‘other’ team, Baylor, has scored 40 or more in two consecutive first-halves, the record moves up to 70% winning bets.

USC vs Gonzaga
Elite-8 NCAA 2021
4% Best Bet on USC +8.5 points

I am betting Houston at +500 to win the Championship. I also betting USC at +1400 to win the Championship as an alternative sprinkle of USC using the money line in this game. Far more bang for the buck doing it this way.

Following game number 15 of the regular season, betting on Neutral court UNDERDOGS that are good defensive teams allowing 63-67 PPG and now facing an elite offensive team scoring at least 77 PPG and coming off a win by 15 or more points has earned a 24-5 ATS record good for 83% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Florida State vs Michigan
Sweet 16, Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
5:00 PM EST, March 28, 2021

4% Best Bet on Florida State +2 points or the money line +115 or higher.

I will be playing this bet using the money line and it will be graded on the site as a money line play. The line has drifted to the 2-point price level and if you believe FSU is going to win, then the money line offers better value at +115. If the money line is at +110, for instance, then consider a combination wager of FSU +1.5/+2 points for 50% of your normal 4% bet amount and then another 50% betting the money line at +110.

In the NCAA Tournament action dating back to the 2009 season (2010 March Madness), betting on underdogs of four or fewer points, that have averaged 72 or fewer possessions-per-game, have earned a 138-88-1 ATS record for 61% winning bets. This system has earned the $100 bettor a profit of $4,332 or a highly profitable 18% return-on-investment (ROI). So far in the NCAA Tournament, this system has done well with a 9-5 ATS for 64% winning bets and a nice 24.2 % ROI.

FSU is 21-5-1 ATS when dressed as an underdog of six or fewer points dating back to the 2005 season. FSU head coach Hamilton relishes this underdog role sporting a 12-3 ATS record playing on neutral courts as an underdog of three or fewer points and 19-4 ATS as an underdog of six or fewer points.

Creighton vs Gonzaga
Sweet 16 Hinkle Field House
2:10 PM EST, March 28, 2021

4% Best Bet OVER the posted total of 158 points.

We all have seen many more UNDER results this NCAA Tournament, and with the UNDER a perfect 4-0 UNDER yesterday. These UNDERS combined for going under their respective totals by 78 points in total and is easily above the highest UNDER total for a sweet 16 round since 2010, which occurred in the 2014 tournament and a total of 38 points. For this matchup, the OVER is the play based on my research and machine learning applications.

The line and total imply a Gonzaga 86-73 win today over Creighton. The ML apps underscore Gonzaga’s points total of 86 or more points. Gonzaga has an 82% probability of scoring 86 or more points. In past games, Creighton is 7-0 OVER when they have allowed 87 or more points spanning the last three seasons.  Gonzaga is 30-3 OVER when both they and their opponent have scored 75 or more points spanning the last three seasons. Gonzaga is 75-2 and 55-15 OVER in games scoring 81 or more points spanning the last five seasons and teams in the NCAA Tournament that have scored 87 or more points, are 52-4 and 50-6 OVER spanning the last six NCAA Tournaments.

Syracuse vs Houston

Sweet 16 Round

Hinkle Fieldhouse

9:55 PM EST, March 27, 2021

4% Best Bet on Syracuse +6.5 points

I like a red-hot Syracuse team that once again is proving the nay-sayers wrong. Jim Boeheim is one of the best coaches All-Time and has the Syracuse 2-3 zone defense holding their first two opponents to less than 36% shooting.  Even though, Houston has had many days to prepare for this defense, facing it in a LIVE game is far more different than studying game films. 

Houston is certainly an elite team, but in order to attack a 2-3 zone, an offense needs a strong post presence. Houston does not have that strong scoring threat in the post, and I see Syracuse doing a great job contesting every 3-point shot attempt. 

Boeheim is 10-1 ATS when his teams have been seeded 9 through 12 in the NCAA Tournament. Houston is 1-9 ATS in games away from home following a low-scoring game in which 125 or fewer points were scored spanning the last three seasons. 

Oklahoma vs Gonzaga
2:40 PM EST, March 22, 2021
NCAA Round-2, Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

4% Best bet on Gonzaga –14 points

Betting on neutral court favorites in a matchup involving the favorite being an elite offense averaging 77 or more PPG and are coming off two consecutive games scoring 85 or more points, and facing an average D-1 defense that is allowing between 67 and 75 PPG has earned a highly profitable 74-32 ATS record for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Gonzaga is 27-0, 13-12 ATS, and is averaging 92.3 PPG, 45.7 PPG in the first half, and making 55% of their shot attempts. Despite playing at the 7th-fastest pace of play in the nation, their defense holds up extremely well and allows just 69 PPG, 31.5 PPG in the first half, and 41.4% shooting.

Oklahoma is 16-10 SU, 13-12 ATS, and average 74.7 PPG, 34.2 PPG in the first half, and shooting a below average 44% from the field. Their defense has allowed 69 PPG, 31.5 PPG in the first half, and 42% opponent shooting. However, over their last five games, they have regressed and average 70.6 PPG, 29.4 PPF in the first half, and make 43% of their shots. On the defensive side, they have allowed 71.6 PPG, 33.6 first half PPG, and allowed 45% shooting over their last five games.  So, Gonzaga is playing well, and may not have even peeked yet, and now facing an Oklahoma team that is struggling a bit at both ends of the court.

Gonzaga has shot 50% or better from the field in all but TWO of their 27 games and both of those games they shot 49.2% from the field. They have outscored their opponents by 23.7 PPG, and have the fifth-best assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.543. They also have the 21st-best defense assist-to-turnover ratio at 0.755. Oklahoma ranks 128th with a 0.929 opponent assist-to-turnover. So, how in the world is Oklahoma going to slow Gonzaga’s constant offensive attack? I do not think they will or can even on their best day.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Gonzaga is expected to score at least 87 points. When Gonzaga has scored 80 or more points, they are 45-26-1 ATS, and when scoring 87 or more points, they are 41-15-1 ATS for 73% winning bets.

Oregon State vs Oklahoma State
NCAA Second Round, Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
9:40 PM EST, March 21, 2021
4% Best bet on the Oklahoma State Cowboys – 6 points

Oklahoma State is a perfect 7-0 ATS since the 15-game of this season facing teams that were averaging 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game. Oregon State is a money-burning 7-22 ATS coming off a four or more-game win streak spanning the last ten seasons. Oklahoma State is 13-3 ATS after having won four or five of their last six games this season. Oklahoma State is 8-2 ATS on neutral courts and having won five or more of their last six games.

From the machine learning applications, we are expecting Oklahoma State to shoot between 48 and 53% from the field and to attempt 57 to 64 shots. They are 9-1 ATS when they have met these performance measures.

Oral Roberts vs Florida
7:45 PM EST, March 21, 2021
8-UNIT best bet on the Florida Gators

Oral Roberts pulled off one of the biggest upsets in Tournament history in their win over Ohio State. The following betting system reveals how difficult it will be for them to pull off another giant-killing upset win. This system has earned a 44-15-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the last five seasons and requires us to bet on neutral court favorites that are from a Major D-1 Conference and facing a team that is from a Mid-Major Conference and that is also playing their second neutral court game in the past three days.

A second betting system has earned a 51-19 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. Bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are facing a team that is on a four or more-game win streak and are seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament.

Florida head coach White is 7-0 ATS when facing an opponent that has been getting outrebounded by four or more rebounds-per-game. He is also 13-3-1 SATS away from Gainesville when having failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games.

Wisconsin vs Baylor
2:40 PM EST, March 21, 2021

4% best bet on Wisconsin +6.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line. I will be betting this game with 85% of my 4% bet size using the spread and the remaining 15% on the money line. I had thought that UNC would advance to this game against Baylor, but Wisconsin and their strong 3-point shooting present far more problems for Baylor.

Wisconsin’s Davison had 29 points in the 85-62 route of UNC. They had only seven turnovers and strong ball-handling is a definite requirement in order to take down Baylor. Given that the fourth seed Purdue and two seed Ohio State both lost, the winner of this game will have the easiest remaining schedule to win the region and advance to the Final-Four.

Betting on neutral court underdogs that are coming off a win of 15 or more-points, have a solid defense allowing 67 or fewer PPG, and are now facing an excellent offensive team averaging 75 or more PPG has earned a 25-5 ATS record over the last five seasons.

In the NCAA Tournament teams that are allowing 67 or fewer PPG and facing an opponent that is averaging 75 or more PPG have earned a 176-124 ATS record for 59% winning bets.

Loyola-Illinois vs Illinois
12:10 PM EST, March 21, 2021
Round 2 NCAA Tournament, Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

4% Best bet on Illinois –7 points

Betting on neutral court favorites that are coming off a 20-point or more blowout win and now facing an opponent coming off three consecutive double-digit wins has earned a 37-14 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Illinois has tremendous balance and bench strength that will wear down the Loyola team over the course of the game, especially the second half of this matchup. Illinois overwhelmed Drexel with a two-man punch of All-Big Ten center Kofi Cockburn and All-American Ayo Dosunmu. Cockburn had 18 points, including a run of eight in a row, and Dosunmu awakened from a slow start to chip in 17 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and three steals in the first-round victory.

Illinois has been near-perfect on the offensive end during their recent surge and are making the correct ball screen reads and as a result all five players are getting high-percentage looks. They share the ball, and you can see the fun and energy they bring to the court. Four of the five Illini starters scored in double-digits in the win over Drexel.

Illinois took only seven 3-point shots among the total of 63 shot attempts against Drexel. You can bet they will look to pound the paint and take as many mid-range jumpers as possible. They will also look to speed up the game right from the opening tip and take Loyola out of their plodding pace that ranks 346th nationally. Illinois has the fifth most difficult schedule and are currently 7th in positive team momentum. Loyola had the 140th toughest schedule and rank 284th in momentum. In fact, Loyola’s momentum has regressed modestly.

Illinois has a major advantage of the offensive glass and will have a big edge in second-chance scores. They rank 5th nationally in second-chance scoring and I just do not see how Loyola will be able to withstand the Illini’s offensive efficiency.

Illinois head coach Underwood is a highly profitable 35-15 ATS when facing solid ball-handling teams that are averaging 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game.

Abilene Christian vs Texas
NCAA First Round, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
9:50 PM EST, March 20, 2021

5% or 10-Star Best Bet on Texas – 8.5 points

Coming off a terrible day on Friday going 0-3 ATS with 8-UNIT Best Bets, but at least winning Loyola as a 6-UNIT winning bet. UCLA won Thursday as a 8-UNIT Best Bet bring the 2-day record to 1-3 with 8-UNIT and 1-0 with 6-UNIT Best Bets. I mention this only to remind all of us, including myself, that this is a grinding marathon for 365-days. I am expecting to post my sixth consecutive profitable NCAA Tournament, but do NOT increase your bet size. Stay disciplined and maintain the long-term view to profitability that has served me quite well for 26 years.

Betting on favorites in a matchup of similar offenses that are averaging 74 to 79 PPG, after the 15th game of the regular season including all Tournament action, and with the dog coming off three straight double-digit wins has earned a 40-23-2 ATS record for 63.5% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. If the favorite is lined between 3.5 and 9.5 points, the record improves to 26-8-2 ATS for 77% winning bets and has won nine straight ATS.

Texas has big-time advantages across the board and at both ends of the court. Abilene Christian ranks 319th in strength of schedule and this is a sizable jump in competition taking on a Texas squad that has been far more consistent, and plays better away from Austin. Make no mistake about it, Texas will look to pressure every ball-handler looking to force turnovers and get quick fast-break scores. Texas ranks 56th in the nation in points off of steals and 40th in defensive field goal attempt rate.

Grand Canyon vs Iowa

NCAA First Round, Indiana Farmers Coliseum, Indianapolis, IN

6:25 PM EST, March 20, 2021

4% Best Bet on Iowa – 14.5 points. 

Iowa is 27-11-1 ATS facing defensive teams that are forcing 14 or fewer turnovers-per-game over the last two seasons. Iowa is 13-3 ATS installed as a double-digit favorite spanning the last two seasons. Iowa is 17-5 ATS in games lined with a total between 140 and 149.5 points spanning the last two seasons. Iowa is 10-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games spanning the last three seasons. Iowa is 9-1 ATS coming off a game allowing 45 or more points in the first half of their last game over the last three seasons. Iowa is 8-1 ATS adfter a double-digit loss over the last two seasons. Iowa Head coach McCaffery is 44-27 ATS as a double-digit favorite

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Iowa is 20-7-1 ATS for 75% winning bets when they have scored 81 or more points in games played over the last two seasons. 

The team is led by super-stud Luc Garza and is on eof the five starters that returned from last season. They have incredible chemistry and team leadership and this season was dedicated to winning the NCAA Championship. They rank best ball-handling team in the nation with an incredible 2.07 assists-to-turnover ratio. 

Iona vs Alabama
4:00 PM EST, March 21, 2021
NCAA First Round, Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
4% OVER the posted total of 147 points

This total opened at 143 points and has seen smart money hitting the OVER lifting the market price to a current 147-points. My machine learning applications continue to ‘love’ the OVER with a high probability of both teasm socring 75 or more points and a final tally of about 160 points.

One way to play this this total is to place 50% of your normal 4% betting amount pre-flop and then look to add 25% more at 143 and the last 25% at 138.5 points. If both teams start out fast, you may not get the chance to add the two parts. However, as we have seen in the first day’s action, the in-game pricing is extremely fast and volatile. So, let that volatility work for you in this game.

Alabama is 41-26 OVER when installed as a favorite in games played over the last three seasons and 23-11-1 ATS in non-conference games played over the last three seasons. Alabama head coach Oats is 28-14-1 ATS when playing just the second game spanning the past week; 32-14 ATS when playing against an opponent that has won 60 to 80% of their games on the season and only in games played after the 15th game of the regular season.

Eastern Washington vs Kansas
NCAA RD-1, Indiana Farmers Coliseum, Indiapolis, IN
4% Best Bet on Eastern Washington +10.5 points.

1:15 PM EST, March 20, 2021

The 70-point level is goping to the key for this game and if EWU is going to pull-off an Oral Roberts-like upset over the 3-seed Kansas Jayhawks. The machine learning applications predict a high probability that EWU is going to score more than 70 points. EWU is 13-3 ATS when scoring 70 or more points this season. They are a losing record when not scoring more than 70 points.

Kansas was 18-0 SU when holding an opponent to fewer than 70 points and just 2-8 when allowing 70 or more points this season.

EWU center Tanner Groves has the opportunity for a huge game. They rank 12th nationally in points scored by the center at 28% of total points. Kansas forward David McCormack has been upgraded to probable for this game due to the COVID Quarantine protocol. Still, he is going to have his hands full trying to contain Groves and no one has any clue how much fatigue will impact McCormack.

The biggest problem for the KU defense will be leaving the perimeter open when Groves gets the ball in the box. EWU guards accounted for a modest portion of the scoring, BUT the team has shot 35% from beyomd the arc. Big Sky Conference preseason Player-of-the-Year Jacob Davison, who doesn’t even start, hit 37% from behind the arc and went 9-18 in his last game. EWU knows how to spread the floor and the defense and take the best shot the defense provides them.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that EWU is 11-2 ATS when making at least 33% of their 3-point shots in games played over the last two seasons. They are projected to make at least 80% of their free throw attempts and when doing so are 20-7 ATS in games played over the last three seasons.

North Texas vs Purdue
NCAA Tournament, First Round, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
4:00 PM EST, March 19, 2021

4% Best Bet on Purdue -7 points

Let us start with a solid and consistent monmey-making betting system that has earned a 62-23 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. The system requires a bet be made on favorites that are facing an opponent on a four or more-game win streak and is a 13 through 16-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Purdue is a solid rebounding team that has averaged 37.6 rebounds-per-game and have outrebounded opponents by 6.2 per-game on the season. Note that North Texas is a money-losing 21-44 ATS away from home and facing an opponent that is outrebounding their opponent by an average of 5 or more rebounds-per-game.

Purdue’s head coach is 13-3 ATS in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. He is also 18-6 ATS when facing an opponent that averages a below average 15 free-throws-per-game.

We learning from the machine learning applications, that Purdue is 13-3 ATS when having four or more offensive boards-per-game than their opponents over the last two seasons. The apps are predicting that North Texas will have fewer than 62 points. North Texas is just 35-60 ATS when scoring 62 or fewer points.

Oregon State vs Tennessee
NCAA Tournament - First Round
Bankers Life Fieldhouse - Indianapolis, IN
4:30 PM EST, March 19, 2021
4% Best Bet on Tennessee -8.5 points.

I certainly do not see any traditional upset here with a 12 vs 5 matchup in the first round. To start, OSU head coach Barnes is a terrible 7-22 ATS when playing against a team with a win percentage between 51 and 60% and 8-24 ATS away from home and facing an excellent ball handling team that is committing 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game after the 15th game of the regular season including conference and NCAA, NIT Tournaments.

Based on my opponent-adjusted rankings, UT is the 15th-best and OSU is the 75th-best team in the nation. UT has had a much-better resum based on overall record quality and are a superior team on both ends of the court. UT ranks 25 with a 45.9% opponent effective FG percentage. OSU is just not a good shooting team and is a main reason they play a slower style of game. They do not have the personnel to get involved into a track meet with UT. OSU ranks 230th with a 48.7% offensive effective FG percentage.

From the machine learning applications we know that UT is 151-50-6 ATS for 75% winning bets when scoring 75 or more points in all games played over the last 15 seasons.

Utah State vs Texas Tech
Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament
1:45 PM EST, March 19, 2021

Utah State is the 11-seed going up against a strong Texas Tech 6-seed in this first-round matchup taking place at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Indiana. Utah State has the make-up to win this game and send Texas Tech home.

Both teams playing slower than the average D-1 pace of play. UST averages 69.2 possessions-per-40-minutes and TTU averages an even slower pace averaging 66.9 possessions. UST is playing their best games entering the tournament while TTU has been on a minor regression. UST will look to score from the paint and at the rim as often as possible. They are an excellent passing team and will always make the extra pass to get the highest percentage shot. Their excellent ball movement is going to be tough for TTU defense to contain despite ranking in the top-20 of most defensive efficiency measures. UST is also quite good at scoring on second-chance opportunities. So, the more offensive boards they get and the greater the margin of offensive boards compared to TTU, the better their chances of winning this game.

TTU is just 2-11 ATS when facing teams called for fewer than 17 fouls-per-game this season and 10-20 ATS when facing strong defenses that are allowing 42% or lower shooting over the last two seasons. UST is 9-2 ATS following two consecutive games allowing 30 or fewer points in the first half.  TTU head Coach Beard is 14-26 ATS off a loss to a conference foe and 4-15 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite to a conference foe.

Bet 4% on the Utah State Aggies and sprinkle the money line with a bit extra and not greater than a 1% amount. 

UCLA vs Michigan State
First Four NCAA Tournament
9:57 PM EST, March 18, 2021

4% Best bet on UCLA + 2 points.

The sentiment expectaions are highly overvalued and the betting public is betting MSU with irraytional exhuberance. So, this is a contrarian bet, going against the 77% or more of the bets seeing action on MSU. Currently, 77% of the bets made are on MSU, but just 52% of the money.

On my live shows this week, which can found at Predictive Playbook on YouTube, I had suggested that MSU should have been seeded and that Syracuse was the team that should have been slotted into this play-in matchup with UCLA. Upon further review, and having run my machine learning applications, there is no doubt in my mind that the selection committee got it right. Noyte, too that I am stating that UCLA is guaranteed of getting the win. I am saying, that UCLA is the smart bet in this matchup and making smart bets over the course of the Tournament is a solid path toward potential profitability.

MSU is 5-19 ATS in orad/neutral court setting when playing ateam with a winning record over the last two seasons; 4-14 ATS in road/netral court settings and facing an opponent that is outscoring their opponents by at least four or more points-per-game; 0-7 ATS this season away from home and following five consecutive games where their opponent committed 14 or fewer turnovers.

From the machine learning applications, we are enlightened that MSU is 2-11 ATS in games in which they attempted 55 to 65 shots this season; 18-61 ATS in games played and allowing 75 to 81 points over the last 15 seasons.

Oregon State vs Coloroado
PAC-12 Tournament Championship
10:30 PM EST, March 13, 2021
5% Best Bet on Colorado -9 points.

Colorado has significant advantages at both ends of the court. The greatest advantage is at the charity stripe where Colorado gets to the line as much as the average PAC-12 or D-1 team but ranks best in the nation making 83.4% of those shots. Colorado ranks 103rd with a 26.6 free-throw attempt rate and will exceed their season average by as many as ten attempts given that OSU ranks 245th in defensive free-throw attempt rate. 
By my measures and machine learning analytics, Colorado ranks 12th-best in offensive efficiency in the nation. OSU is a distant 82nd in offensive efficiency.  Colorado ranks 53rd in shooting efficiency while OSU is a distant 195th nationally. Colorado ranks 56th in defensive shooting efficiency while OSU is 238th. 
OSU head coach Tinkle is 9-20 ATS away from home after two consecutive wins. Colorado head coach Boyle is a solid 32-16 ATS after three consecutive games where the opponent had 31 or fewer rebounds and 18-5 ATS in four consecutive games where the opponent had 31 or fewer rebounds. 
From the machine learning applications, we learn that Colorado is 17-6 ATS in games in which they scored 75 or more points in games played over the last three seasons. 

Iona vs Fairfield
4:00 PM EST, March 13, 2021
Metro Atlantic Tournament Championship.
4% Best Bet on Fairfield +8.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

I recommend playing this bet in two parts consisting of 85% of your 4% bet size on the spread, and 15% on the money line. Depending on your risk appetite a ratio of 90% spread and 10% money line may be more to your liking and is perfectly ok. The point is to not exceed 15% of your 4% amount using the money line. These ratios provide the best total rate of return (ROI) over the course of the season – not just a single day. 

A few quick hitters.
Fairfield is 19-7 ATS when facing solid defensive teams allowing 42% or worse shooting in games played over the last three seasons. They are 10-2 ATS when playing their third game in five days. Iona is an imperfect 0-9 ATS in road/neutral sites after two consecutive wins of six or fewer points. Head Coach Young is 19-5-1 ATS when playing on back-to-back days or with no more than one day of rest between games.

Ohio State vs Michigan
Big Ten Semifinals
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
4% Best Bet on Ohio State +6 poinnts and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

I recommend playing this bet in two parts consisting of 85% of your 4% bet size on the spread, and 15% on the money line. Depending on your risk appetite a ratio of 90% spread and 10% money line may be more to your liking and is perfectly ok. The point is to not exceed 15% of your 4% amount using the money line. These ratios provide the best total rate of return (ROI) over the course of the season – not just a single day. 

The pace of this matchup is going to be slower than average for these two teams. Michigan and Ohio State rank 9th and 10th averaging 67.8 possessions-per-40-minutes. The machine learning applications predict that both teams will not exceed 68 possessions each in this game. Despite the lower style of game, both teams are incredibly efficient on the offensive end. Michigan is one of four teams in the nation ranking in the top-20 in offensive and defensive effective field goal percentage. Ohio State and Michigan are excellent free-throw shooting teams making 77% of those shots. However, OSU gets to the stripe far more often than Michigan. Plus, Ohio State plays a defense to defend shots and not force turnovers. As a result, a Michigan team that ranks 263rd attempting 16.3 free throws per game will get even fewer against OSU. 

Referees in the Big Ten Tournament have been whistle happens and calling far more fouls than during the regular season and heavily favors OSU if the foul-calling officiating continues. 

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Ohio State is 17-0 SU and 14-3 ATS for 82.4% winning bets when scoring 77 or more points and making 7 or more free throws than the opponent in games played over the last five seasons. 

UMASS-Lowell vs Hartford
American East Tournament Championship
11:00 AM EST, March 13, 2021

4% Best Bet on Hartford -2.5 points

Hartford is the better team at both ends of the court and will control the pace of play. Both teams won their semifinal game last Saturday so they have had seven days of rest and prep time for this Championship game. The pace of play of the entire conference is on eof the slowest in the nation. The AEC averages 68 possessions-per-40-minutes with no team averaging 70 or more.

UMASS-Lowell (UML) plays second-fastest at 69.3 poessessions-per-40-minutes and Hartford eighth of the 10-team conference averaging 66.4 possessions. Hartford has a much better defense than UML based on assist-to-turnover ratio. The machine learning applications predict that UML will have at least five more turnovers than Hartford. Teams in the conference final that scpore more points than their season-to-date average and their opponent commits 4 or more turnovers than they do has led to a 9-3-1 ATS record for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Connecticut vs Creighton
Big East Tournament Semifinals, Madison Square Garden, NY
9:00 PM EST, March 12, 2021

4% Best Bet on Crieghton -1

Play on neutral court favorites or pick-em that are coming off a blowout win of 20 or more points in their last game and now facing an opponent coming off three consecutive double-digit wins has earned a highly profitable 34-14 ATS record for 71% ATS winners.

The machine learning applications predict that Crieghton will have five or fewer tunrovers than UCONN and have the better assists-to-turnover ratio. In games where Creighton has matched or exceeded these measures has produced a 20-3 ATS record over the last five seasons.

UCONN is a miserable 4-17 ATS in road games after four consecutive double-digit wins.

North Carolina vs Virginia Tech
9:00 PM EST, March 11, 2021
ACC Quarterfinals
5% Best Bet on North Carolina -3.5 points
UNC is coming into their traditional form after a shaky first half of the regular season. They throttled Notre Dame 101-59 last night and teams playing with zero rest and scored 100 or more points in their previous game are 69-47-4 ATS and if the team is in the ACC, Big East, B-12, B-10, P-12 or SEC have earned a 31-16-1 ATS re3cord for 67% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. 
Betting on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, playing their third game in the past 7 days, and is coming off a conference win scoring at least 80 points has earned a 79-40 ATS record for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons. If the team scored 90 or more points, the ATS record improves to 77% winning bets. 
UNC is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation ranking second and averaging 43.2 rebounds-per-game. They also rank 31st averaging 15.8 assists-per-game, and V-Tech has averaged just 14.2 assists-per-game ranking 85th. UNC has advantages with their recent form (momentum) ranking 16th nationally, consistency ranking 35th, and 55th in the pace of play, which V-Tech will struggle to keep up with tonight. 
V-Tech must play slow and control the pace of the game. They rank 278th averaging 68 possessions-per-40-minutes. UNC ranks second in second-chance scoring and going gup a V-Tech defense that ranks 135th in defensive second-chance scoring. 
V-Tech is 5-15 ATS when facing a team that is outscoring their opponents by at least 5 PPG in games played over the last three seasons. UNC is a stellar 33-15 ATS in road games following a game in which their defense allowed the opponent 33% or lower shooting.

Mississippi State vs Kentucky
Noon ET, March 11, 2021
SEC First Round

4% Best Bet on Kentucky -4 points

Betting on neutral court teams that are solid on the defensive end allowing 42.5 to 45% opponent shooting and now facing a team that is shooting between 45 and 47.5% and is the better ball handlin team committing no more than 14 turnovers-per-game and their opponent averaging more than 14 turnovers-per-game has earned a 35-13-1 ATS record over the last five seasons for 73% winning bets.

Calipari is a perfect 7-0 ATS after a game in which his team made 13 or more 3-point shots.

Duke vs Louisville

6:30 PM EST, March 9, 2021

4% Best Bet on Louisville plus the points and NO sprinkle on the money line. 

Betting on all teams lined within 3.5 points between on either side of pick,  that is coming off a double-digit loss and facing a foe that they already defeated earlier in the season as an underdog has earned a 55-28-1 ATS mark good for 67% winners over the last five seasons. 

Duke is 0-7 ATS when facing solid rebounding teams that are outrebounding opponents by 5 or more per game. 

Long Beach State vs. CS-Northridge
Big West Tournament First Round, Michelob Ultra Arena, NV
6:00 PM EST, March 9, 2021
4% Best Bet on Long Beach State +2.5 points and if this line reaches 3 or more points then sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

The Big West Conference (BWC) is a weak conference, however, their tournament is going to provide many entertaining and dram-filled games. This matchup is one of them. UC-Santa Barbara is the cream of the conference and will be favored in every game they play. They went 15-3 in conference play and 19-4 overall this season, but they must win this tournament because there will not be any at-large bids given to this conference.

The pace of play will be aboverage based on the conference and national ratings. LBST ranks 13th nationally and fastest in the BWC averaging 84.3 possessions-per-40-minutes. Cal State Northridge (CSN) ranks 99th nationally and 4th in the BWC with an average of 71.3 possessions-per-40-minutes. LBST has advantages over the CSN defense in most offensive efficiency measures including overall efficiwency in points-scored per 100 possessions. Moreover, LBST, has a significantly better defense ranking only 198th nationally in overall defensive efficiencies. CSN ranks 345th allowing 111.5 points-per-100-opponent possessions.

A few quick hitters. CSN head coach Gottfried is just 1-9 ATS in road games facing teams that are getting outrebounded by at least four or more rebounds-per-game from the 16th game on out. LBST head coach Monson is 24-12-1 ATS in road/neutral venues facing a team that is allowing an average of 45 or higher opponent shooting.

St. Mary’s vs Gonzaga
WCC Semifinals
9:00 PM EST, March 8, 2021

4% Best Bet on St. Mary’s +17.5-points

Let’s start with a proven and highly profitable betting system that has earned a 62-26-2 ATS record for 70% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. The system requires us to bet on double-digit underdogs that are coming off two games scoring 55 or fewer points and facing an opponent that has scored 75 or more points in three consecutive games. That is all there is to it.

St. Mary’s is 9-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or more of their last six games pver the last two seasons. Gonzaga is just 11-24 in roiad or neutral sites coming off three or more home games installed as a favorite in each one of them.

Wisconmsin-Milwaukee vs Cleveland State
6:30 PM EST, March 8, 2021
Horizon Tournament Semifinals. Indiana Farmers Coliseum
4% Best Bet on Cleveland State

The line for this game is starting to ‘steam’ with Cleveland State, who has garnered just 33% of the tickets but has accounted for 87% of the money bet at about 2:00 ET. I do think the line will continue to grind higher, so if you can get -3.5 points grab it. You are more likely to get -4 points, but that is ok as well given that the machine learning applications are projecting a Cleveland State win by at least 8-points. 

Betting on home favorites of less than 9.5 points that are revenging a home loss and with that opponent coming off an upset win over a conference foe has earned a solid 72-36-4 ATS for 67% winning bet over the last five seasons. 

Back on January 22 and 23, Cleveland State played a back-to-back home set with Milwaukee and split the games. They won the first and lost the second setting up the revenge. Milwaukee is coming off a monster 94-92 major upset road win over then-conference favorite Wright State as 13-point underdogs. 

Back on January 22 and 23, Cleveland State played a back-to-back home set with Milwaukee and split the games. They won the first and lost the second setting up the revenge. Milwaukee is coming off a monster 94-92 major upset road win over then-conference favorite Wright State as 13-point underdogs.

Texas vs. TCU
7:00 PM EST, March 7, 2021
4% Best Bet on Texas -7.5 points

The regular-season finale for both teams in this B-12 matchup. Texas has struggled with consistent ball-handling all season and ranks 195th with a 0.934 assist-to-turnover ratio. Despite their troubles holding on to the ball, TCU ranks 334th in defensive assists-to-turnover ratio. Texas will look like an elite passing team such as Iowa and others matched up against a very weak TCU defense. 

The Texas defense is the engine of the team. They are aggressive and rank 24th with an outstanding 0.757 defensive assist-to-turnover ratio. TCU is going to struggle against this style of defense and look for at least five more turnovers than their season average of 13.8 turnovers-per-game, based on the machine learning applications. Further, TCU is 14-26 ATS in games in which their opponent committed fewer than 14 turnovers in games played over the last three seasons. 

TCU is 0-6 ATS hosting a guest that is averaging 21 or more three-point shot attempts this season. Texas has averaged 24 3-point shot attempts on the season.  

Michiagn vs Michigan State
4:30 PM EST, March 7, 2021
4% Best Bet on Michigan -7 points

Betting on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have won at least 80% of their games on the season, are coming off a home win against a conference foe, and facing a conference foe winning 51 to 60% of their games has erned a 73-33-3 ATS record for 59% winning records over the past five seasons.

Michigan is 12-1 ATS when facing a team that averages just 6 or fewer steals-per-game this season.

From the machine learning applications, we learnm that there is a high probability that Michigan will score a minimum of 75 points. Michigan is 8-0 ATS when scoring 75 or more points in games played over the last two seasons. MSU is 0-7 ATS when allowing 75 or more points in games played over the last three seasons.

ELON vs. James Madison
CAA Quarterfinals
2:30 ET, march 7, 2021
4% Best Bet on James Madison – 4 points

JMU has won nine of their last 11 games and are the top-seed with Northeastern the second-seed and both teams having identical 8-2 conference records. ELON had a shortened regular season, but amn amazing roller coaster ride losing eight straight games and then starting the current 5-game win streak and covered the spread in all five games. During the losing streak ELON shot 38% or wrose in six of the games. During the five-game win streak they have shot not lower than 45% from the field.

ELON started Buford, Hannah, McIntosh, Ndugba, and Wright to start the 5-game win streak and that has been the starting lineup in each of the five wins. McIntosh is the energy that fuels ELON scoring 15.3 PPG, 2.9 RPG, and 2.4 APG. Elon, however, lost two back-to-back games to James Madison at the Atlantic Union Bank Center, which is hosting the CAA Tournament.

ELON is 0-8 ATS on the road or neutral court setting in a game with a total between 140 and 150 points. JMU is 6-0 ATS after having lost tow of their last three games.

Duke vs North Carolina
6:00 PM EST, March 6, 2021
10-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER 149-points

Currently, and in my opinion, Duke would get an invite to the NCAA Tournament. And a loss to UNC today, would require them to run the slate in the ACC Tournament . The latter is highly unlikely and for that reason and many others, Duke must play focused defense with excellent defensive rebounding for 40-minutes and not get into a shoot-out with UNC.

Duke does shoot the ball well and ranks 42nd with a 54% effective FG percentage, but they are not good, in fact, horrid ranking 336th with a 0.232 free throws attempts to field goals attempted ratio. UNC does not shoot the ball well, but they are the second best offensive rebounding team in the nation. They get the offensive board on 39.6% of their missed shots.

Duke has been playing much better of late and rank 16th in current momentum attributed to a 9th best ranking in second-chance scoring opportunities. Duke has been playing better on the road than at home too. I expect the pace of play to be much slower than what UNC has averaged on the season.

Krzyzewski is 18-7-1 UNDER when on the road and coming off a road game in which they and their opponent scored at least 75 points. Williams is 19-8-1 UNDER cpoming off a tough loss of no more than three points to a conference foe.

Florida State vs Notre Dame

Noon ET, March 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on FSU – 6.5 points

My opponent-adjusted power ratings illustrate and underscore the major mismatch of this ACC game. FSU is the 8th best team in the nation and Notre Dame is ranked 75th. Further, with a 9-14 SU record, Notre Dame has very little incentive or motivation knowing that they have little or no chance to advance to the NCAA Tournament.

FSU ranks 15th in scoring offense averaging 79.9 PPG and will have little trouble, based on my machine learning applications, exceeding 81 points in this game. FSU is 8-1 ATS when scoring 81 or more points this season and 117-12 SU and 81-25-3 ATS for 76.4% winning bets over the last 15 seasons.

FSU has a defense that at times during games forgets to play defense. However, Notre Dame’s defense ranks among the worst in the nation as evidenced by a 1.67 opponent assist-to-turnover ratio that ranks 345th nationally. This ratio means that Notre Dame’s opponents had 1.67 assists for every turnover they committed and could easily move the ball from side-to-side and find the best percentage shot available.

FSU is coming off a blowout 93-64 win over Boston College and covered the spread as 19-point home favorites. Notre Dame is coming off their fourth straight loss and to the spread with an 80-69 uninspired defeat at the hands of NC State as a 3.5-point favorite.

Betting on road favorites of 3.5 to 10-points that won at home by 10 or more points in their previous game and now facing a host that is off an upset loss as a favorite has earned bettors of this system a profit-making 74-42-1 ATS for 64% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Georgetown vs Connecticut

Noon ET, March 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on Georgetown +9.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

Georgetown is heating up and maybe peaking at just the right time under Hall-of-Famer head coach Patrick Ewing. They have won and covered four of their last five games with wins over Butler, Xavier, DePaul, and Seton Hall. The lone loss was against these same Connecticut Huskies and know that Georgetown is 6-0 ATS this season playing with revenge.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Georgetown is 7-0 ATS this season when scoring 71 or more points and their opponent commits at least 12 turnovers. Over the last 15 seasons, this combination of performance measures has produced a highly profitable 128-19 SU record and 96-35-7 ATS mark good for 73.3% winning bets.

Loyola-Maryland vs Navy

Noon ET, March 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on Loyola-Maryland +4.5 points and sprinkle a little more on the money line.

This is matchup in the quarterfinals of the Patriot League Tournament. Loyola is led by three seniors in Santi Aldama, Luke Johnson, and Isaiah Hart. Navy is the top-seed in this tournament, but make no mistake about it, Loyola is fully capable of getting the upset win. The trio of seniors as accounted for 47.5% of the offensive production for the season. In addition, they have stepped up their games and floor leadership by accounting for 58% of the offensive production in the last. Five games. Aldama is the best player of the trio and is averaging a team-high 21.4 PPG and 10.1 rebounds-per-game.

The COVID-19 protocols have compounded the Navy’s problems with guard Cam Davis listed as questionable for this game. He is averaging a team-high 17.1 PPG including 2.8 assists-per-game, and 2.7 rebounds-per-game, and the Navy bench is not deep enough to offset the loss of his production at both ends of the court.

The pivot for this game centers on 70 based on my machine learning applications that project Navy will not score more than 70 points. Loyola is 0-9 SU when they have allowed more than 70-points and a perfect 4-0 when they have allowed fewer than 70 in games played this season. They are 30-14-2 ATS in road games and scoring 65 or more points over the last 10 seasons.

Middle Tennessee State vs Florida Atlantic
6:00 ET, March 5, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Middle Tennessee State +10 points and sprinkle a bit on the money line too.

Betting on road underdogs of 10 to 20 points that is coming off three consecutive losses to conference foes and facing an opponent coming off a 20 or more-point  win over a conference rival has earned a profit-making 53-24-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons.

FAU is a money-burning 11-36 ATS facing offenses that are averaging 64 or fewer PPG. FAU is 20-48 ATS after having won three of their last four games.

Portland vs Santa Clara
11:59 PM EST, March 4, 2021
4% Best Bet on Portland +14-points

This matchup is in the first round of the West Coast Tournament being held at Orleans Plaza, NV.  Simply stated, my machine learning applications and analytical comparisons between these two teams conclude that Santa Clara should not be favored by this many points and more likely that this game ends in a single-digit margin.

Betting on road teams of 10 to 19.5 points after being beaten by the spread by at least six points in three consecutive games has earned bettors a solid 201-137-3 ATS record for 60% winning bets over the last 15 seasons.

Santa Clara is just 5-15-1 ATS after a game in which they covered the spread over the last two seasons. Santa Clara head coach Sendek is just 5-19 ATS when facing excellent free throw shooting teams making at least 77% of their free-throw attempts.

At the end of the day, this is too many points and on top of it, Santa Clara’s guard Ahmed Ali is questionable with an Achilles injury.

St. Joesphs vs Massachusetts
A-10 Tournament, Secon Round, Robins Center, Richmond, VA

1:00 PM EST, March 4, 2021

4% Best bet on the St. Joes +3 points and sproinkle a bit more on the money line, but omnly if the line is +3 or more.

The St. Joes basketball team must be enjoying the city of Richmond quite a bit having knocked off Richmond University as 14.5 point dogs and are now coming off an upset win over LaSalle. My analytics say they make it three winning upsets in a row.

UMASS and St. Joes play at a fast pace with both rankings in the top-50 nationally. However, the faster pace favors St. Joes given their edge in positive momentum coming into this game. They have played their best basketball as a team right now and rank 35th in consistency ratings.

From the machine learning predictive applications, we learn that St. Joes is 70-35 ATS in road games and scoring between 75 and 81 points over the last two seasons. In addition, 45-24-1 ATS in road games where both they and their opponent exceeded 75 points.

NC State vs Notre Dame
7:00 ET, March 3, 2021
4% Best bet on Notre Dame -2.5 points

Notre Dame has several team angles supporting this play that was produced by my machine learning applications. Notre Dame is 8-1 ATS wjhen playing against a marginal winning team sporting a win percentage not higher than 60% in games played over the last three seasons; head coach Brey is 19-7 ATS when facing opponents with a winning record not exceeding 60%.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Notre Dame is predicted to shoot at least 48% from the field. In past games when Notre Dame has made 48% or better form the field has earned a 115-52-4 ATS record over the last 15 seasons and when NC State has allowed an opponent 48% or better shooting has been a money-burning 9-21-1 ATS in games played over the last three seasons.

Oregon State vs Utah
7:00 ET, March 3, 2021
4% Best Bet on Utah -3.5 points

Here are some quick hitters supporting Utah.
Utah is 28-11-2 ATS in home games and after the 15th game of the regular season when facing a decent shooting free team that is making at least 72%. They are 46-26 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games and 31-15-1 ATS for 67% winning bets when revenging a same season loss.

Oregon State is 15-33 ATS after two consecutive wins to conference foes.

Utah head coach is 31-18 ATS revenging a same -season loss and 36-16 ATS reveging any loss (same season or not) in which his team scored 60 or fewer points.

From the machine learning applications, wqe learn that Utah is 24-3 SU and 20-5-2 ATS for 80% winning bets when making 79% or more of their free throws and committing 13 or fewer turnovers in home games played over the last 10 seasons.

Fort Wayne vs Cleveland State
7:00 PM EST, March 2, 2021
Horizon Conference Quarterfinals
8-UNIT Best bet on Cleveland State -7.5 points

Wright State  and Cleveland State are the giants in the Horizon Conference this season. Both teams sport 16-4 conference records with CSU is the No 1 seed. Make no mistake about it, Wright State is the best team by a large margin.

Fort Wayne is the 10-seed and defeated Wisconsin-Green Bay 89-84 as 5.5-point underdogs. Fort Wayne plays at an average D-1 clip ranking 146th averaging 70.4 possesssions-per-40-minutes. CSU is ranked 228th averaging 69 possessions-per-40-minutes. That ranking is a bit misleading as they only average 1.5 fewer possessionos than Fort Wayne and reflects the team density in this metric.

CSU has a monster advantage on the offensive end. They will take a lot of mid-range shots knowing they rank 17th nationally and will be going against a Fort Wayne defense that ranks 316th defending mid-range shots. This matchup, alone, projects to a double-digit CSU win.

CSU’s junior guard Tre Gomillion is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. He is third-high on the team averaging 9.5 PPG. If he is unable to go tonight, there are several good guards ready to jump off the bench and contribute. Alec Oglesby is one of those players. He is a 6-5 freshman from The Rock School in Gainesville, FL and has the skillset to step up large. I would not be surprised if he ended up being the high-scorer for CSU in this game.

No 3 Baylor vs No 6 West Virginia
5:00 ET, March 2, 2021
8-UNIT Best bet on West Virginia + 4-points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

In this mtachup WVU has the majority of advantages at both ends of the court. They have played a tougher schedule ranking 10th as compared to Baylor’s 94th ranking in this category. No doubt West Virginia has a ton of positive momentum coming into this game and are at the top od their game right nowBaylor has been winning of late, but their efficiency measures had been deteriorating ahead of the Kansas loss. WVU is a much more consistent team week in and week out. Most importantly, WVU likes to play faster than Baylor, who will not be able to withstand the WVU offensive assault.

Baylor has played their worst games on the road this season and just because you won a game and covered the spread does not always translate into an ‘A-grading’.

Betting on home teams as a dog in a matchup of two teasm that are solid rebounding teams averaging at least three more rebounds than their opponents and is a solid defensive team allowing 45% or lower opponent shooting and now facing a team that is an excellent shooting team making 48% or more of their shots-per-game has earned a 25-5-1 ATS record good for 83.3% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Under head coach Huggins, WVU is 41-16-2 ATS in hmome games and coming off a rouble-digit win.

I believe WVU will win this game outright.

Michigan State vs Maryland

2:30 ET, February 28, 2021

4% Best Bet on Maryland -2.5-points.

As a bonus pick, I like the OVER in this matchup too, and suggest a 2 or 3% betting amount at any price at 134 or lower. A 2% parlay is also an option betting the OVER and Maryland.

A simplistic betting system does not mean it does not have the ability to be highly profitable. This one has earned a 55-29 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons and instructs us to be home teams that are facing a foe, who is on a three or more-game win streak and has a winning record not higher than 60% on the season.  

Adding a filter that the home team has a higher effective FG percentage than the opponent and that the home team sports an effective FG percentage above 50% improves the system to a 29-9 ATS record good for 76% winning bets over the last ten seasons.

Maryland plays one of the slowest-paced styles of basketball ranking 333rd in the enation. However, that is more than priced into the market and my machine learning applications project a high probability that 140 or more points will be scored.  MSU has played significantly worse on the road than in their home games. 

MSU is just 2-13 ATS facing teams, who like to take the ‘three’ and average at least 21 3-points shot-attempts-per-game on the season.

No 11 Florida State vs North Carolina
Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC
4:00 PM EST, February 27, 2021

4% Best Bet UNDER the posted total of 151 points.

FSU is the dominant force in the ACC this season and enter this showdown with UNC on a four-game win streak and went 2-1-1 ATS. They are on an 11-game ‘OVER’ streak and shot over 50% from the field in five of those games. Most notably, they shot an incredible 71% from the field in a 105-73 destruction of NC State back on January 13.

UNC has been largely inconsistent this season as demonstrated in their last two games. They destroyed Louisville 99-54 as a 4.5-point home favorite and then inexplicably lost to Marquette 83-70 installed as a 9.5-point home favorite. They have had games where the defense does disappear of they forget how to score. However, in this matchup, their full attention and focus will on FSU knowing that a win will strengthen their NCAA resume.

This is the highest total this season in FSU games. Over the last five seasons, ranked teams that are playing in a road game with the highest total of the season, has seen the ‘UNDER’ earn a 44-24 UNDER record for 65% winning bets.

FSU plays an average-pace based on D-1 standards, but can really turn up the defensive heat. They rank 27th allowing 40.2% opponent shooting and 6th when adjusted by opponent and SOS. UNC is once again a great renounding team that ranks 2nd averaging 42.5 Rebounds-per-game, and third averaging 13.2 offensive rebounds-per-game. Both teams will look to be strong on their defensive glass and minimize the opponent’s second-chance scoring opportunities. UNC ranks best and FSU second-best in second chance scoring, but both are solid in their defensive second-chance scoring as well. So, bottom line is that second chance scoring for both teams is going to be much lower than their averages.

FSU is 32-14-1 UNDER after four consecutive games committing no more than 14 turnovers under head coach Hamilton.

Purdue vs Penn State

7:00 PM EST, February 26, 2021

3% Best Bet on Penn State (PSU) +1.5-points

Purdue has evolved into a well-respected team in the Big Ten that has the talent to take down one of the giants, like Michigan or Ohio State. Recency bias is a amajor part of the opening line and subsequent line movement. However, this line opened with Purdue as a 1.5 point road favorite and has quickly reversed and now has PSU priced as a 1-point favorite. Line movement this strong is quite bullish and positive for backing PSU. 

My opponent-adjusted power ratings show PSU as a -2-point home favorite and agrees with Haslam Metrics too. Don’t be fooled by PSU and their 5-11 conference record. The Big Ten is one of the strongest conferences I have seen in more than a decade. According to KenPom, PSU would be a pick-em to -1.5 point favorite over North Carolina, Clemson, Arizona, Oklahoma State, and UCLA. 

So, now we have a truly desperate PSU team that is coming off a hard-fought win at Nebraska. PSU had five players scoring in double-figures and team-leader Mayreon Jones had a career-high 29-points. So, PSU comes into this game off their best one of the season.

From the database queries, we learn that PSU is a highly profitable 15-3 ATS when coming off a game in which 155 or more points were scored spanning the last three seasons. They are also 7-0 ATS off a conference road win spanning the last three seasons and I see this angle moving to 8-0 ATS tonight. 

I am on a 12-5 ATS NBA and NCAAM Best Bets run. Over the long-term spanning many seasons, I am 407-309 (57%) over my last 714 basketball picks, which has made the Dime bettor a profit of $72,120 since January 1, 2018. So, take a few minutes and purchase a cost-saving longer-term subscription so that you never miss a play. 

Drake vs Bradley

Carver Arena, Peoria, IL

7:00 PM EST, February 26, 2021

10-UNIT best bet on Bradley +9 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line. I have had the best success over the course of a season by taking my 5% amount and playing 80% of that amount on the line, and then 20% using the money line. 

Drake is tied with Loyola Chicago at 14-2 on top of the Missouri Valley Conference standings. Many of you, who listen to my live Predictive Playbook that is broadcast on Periscope and YouTube channels, already know I live Loyola-Chicago quite a bit and have bet them at 50-1 long shot to win the NCAAM Championship. I do not believe Drake is even the second-best team in the conference and is vulnerable in this matchup against Bradley. This is the first of back-to-back games against each other and they will play again tomorrow. 

The pace of this game will be slower than the average pace is for the MVC. Bradley ranks 260th and Drake 250th in possessions-per-40-minutes. A key factor in this bet is that Drake has played far worse in road games, than at home. Plus, Drake, despite winning four of their last five games has been playing at an inferior level compared to earlier this season when they were scorching hot. Drake is coming off back-to-back home wins over Evansville, who ranks 234th overall in the Haslem metrics and 240th with my opponent-adjusted PR. Bradley is a much better team than Evansville, and it is not even close. Bradley ranks 180th in PR and Haslem ranks them 182nd. 

Bradley head coach Wardle is 27-11-1 ATS after giving up five or fewer offensive rebounds in their previous game. Bradley plays their best defense in a fundamentally sound fashion and not look to be overly aggressive to get steals and turnovers. So, Wardle is 23-12-1 AYTS in games following back-to-back games where the respective opponent did not commit more than 11 turnovers. Wardle knows how to play against strong defenses as noted by his 15-6 ATS record in home games facing an opponent that has allowed 42% opponent shooting on the season. 

Bradley lost their team-leading scorer and rebounder in senior Elijah Childs, who was suspended from the team on February 17. Bradley has used nine different starting lineups this season and head coach Wardle had been juggling starting lineups and playing minutes even before this suspension. At the D-1 level, bench players cannot wait to get their chance to showcase their talents in live-game situations. I believe that the loss of Childs will be more than offset by players getting that chance to have more minutes of playing time. 

Keep an eye on Ja’Shon Henry tonight. He was averaging around 20-minutes-per-game but has had 28,24, and 30-minutes of playing time in his last three games. He has scored 43 of his season total of 203 points and shot 15-for-24 for 63% in these last three games. 

Take Bradley plus the points as a 10-UNIT Best Bet

NC State vs No 15 Virginia

6:30 PM ERST, February 24, 2021

4% Best Bet on Virginia -11.5 points

UVA enters this matchup off their first two-gamne losing streak of the season. They were blown out by a very good FSU team by 19 points in Tallahassee and most recently lost a tough 1-point game at Duke. Their defense as awful in the losses allowing 50% shooting to FSU and 51% to Duke. Their defense is quite good and you can expect a much better performance against much weaker opponent in NC State. 

Betting on team that are coming off two upset road losses and now facing an opponent that is revenging a home loss to this team has earned an outstanding 68-31-3 ATS for 70% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. If the opponent is the road team and is revenging that loss, where they failed to score more than 60 points, the record soars to 33-9-1 ATS for 78% winning bets. 

NC State lost 64-13 as 7-point home underdogs to UVA on February 3. NC State is 1-9 ATS revenging a home loss versus opponent in games played over the last three seasons. 

My expectations see UVA bouncing back with a big game and gets the ATS win. 

J

Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech
Blacksburg, VA
7:00 ET, February 23, 2021
4% Best Bet on Georgia Tech +3 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

Georgia Tech is the better ball-handling team ranking 16th nationally with a 1.423 asssist-to-turnover ratio and matched a rather non-aggressive V-Tech defense that ranks 114th with a 0.906 opponent assist-to-turnover ratio. G-Tech has the better effective field-goal-percentage, the better free throw shooting percentage, and the better shooting efficiency measures that can win this game outright.

V-Tech is a money-burning 3-13 ATS when facing good bvall-handling teasm that are averaging 14 or fewer turnovers-per-game in games played after the 15th one of the regular season. They are also 7-20-1 SATS in games following a four-game stretch in which they committed 14 or fewer turnovers in each one.

G-Tech Pastner is 6-0 ATS following back-to-back games in which his team made 78% or more of their free throw attempts.

Akron vs Ohio
Convocation Center, Athens, OH
2:00 PM EST, February 23, 2021
4% Best Bet on Ohio Univeristy +1.5 points

To begin with, I like this matchup knowing that Ohio has played their best games at their home venue while Akron had had their poorest outings in road games this season. Akron also ranks a miserable 322nd nationally in overall performance consistency and gives Ohio a big advantage as they are ranked in the middle of the pack of the 357 D-1 programs. 

Akron loves shooting the ‘three’, but Ohio is a solid 12-4 ATS facing teams, who are averaging 21 or more 3-point shot attempts after game number 15 of the regular season and spanning the last two seasons. 

Akron head coach Groce is 3-12 ATS off a road win. 

From the machine learning applications, we are enlightened to the fact that Akron is 25-82-1 ATS in games in which they allowed 81 or more points and Ohio is an amazing 114-24-2 ATS for 83% ATS winning bets when they have scored 81 or more points. 

Texas State vs Arkansas State
7:00 PM ET, February 22, 2021
8-UNIT Best Bet on Texas State -3 points

Here are a few quick hitters that reinforce the projections produced by the machine learning applications. Texas State is 6-0 ATS after the 15th game of the regular season and now facing an opponent that is outscoring their opposition by at least 4 PPG in games played over the last two seasons. 

Texas State is 10-2 ATS in road games after habving won four of their last five games spanning the last five seasons.

Ark State 1-8 ATS after a win of three or fewer points spanning the last three seasons.

Steals will be a significant factor in this matychup and it favors Texas State, who ranks 127th nationally in quick scoring off of steals. Ark State ranks a miserable 297th in the defensive of this metric.

Texas Tech is the vastly better shooting team and going up against one of the worst defenses in NCAA basketball in Ark State.

Syracuse vs Duke
7:00 PM EST, February 21, 2021
4% Best Bet on Duke -5.5 points

Syracuse is coming off a historic win over Notre Dame in a game they trailed by 20 points marking the largest comeback since 2005. Duke is coming off a huge and much-needed win over No. 7 UVA.

Betting on home teams after game number 15 of the regular season, that are shooting at least 45% from the field, and have shot 50% or better in their last three games has earned a solid 145-80-5 ATS record good for 64% winning bets over the last 20 seasons.

Duke is 10-2 ATS when facing excellent ball-handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game spanning the last two seasons.

Pepperdine vs St. Mary’s

6:00 PM EST, Fenbruary 22, 2021

4% Best Bet on Oregon +5.5 points and a sprinkle on the money line. 

From the machine learning applications, Pepperdine is an outstanding 9-0 ATS when getting at least 37 rebounds and outrebounding their oppoment in games played over the last three seasons. Further, they are 30-15-1 ATS for 67% winning bets in games played over the last five seasons when they have scored 71 or more points and had fewer turnovers than their opponent. 

Wisconsin vs Northwestern

7:00 PM EST, February 21, 2021

4% Best bet on Northwestern +7 points and sprinkle a bit more using the money line. 

Despite the different and opposite season-long records, these two teams are much more equal in performance levels and reflect how good the Big Ten Conference is this season. Wisconsin is the better team on paper, but has played their worst games on the road and is vulnerable to an upset loss. 

Both teams are excellent ball-handling ones. Wisconsin ranks 11th sporting a 1.457 assist-to-turnover ratio and Northwestern ranks 27th with a 1.311 assist-to-turnover ratio. Northwestern has the better and more efficient offense while Wisconsin has an elite and efficient defense. 

The Northwestern defense matches up well against Wisconsin’s offense that ranks about equal to the average D-1 program. Northwestern ranks 50th in defensive field goal percentage. In addition, Wisconsin has not been a threat on their offensive glass and ranks 285th converting second-chance scoring opportunities into points. Northwestern is solid in rebounding on the defensive end and will minimize Wisconsin’s second-chance scoring opportunities. 

Wisconsin has not played their worst games by many measures at home and Northwestern, despite, a losing record, is one of the more consistent teams in the nation. There you have it, Bet Northwestern plus the points. 

Penn State vs Iowa
5:00 PM EST, February 21, 2021
8-UNIT Best Bet on Penn State +11.5 points and sprinkle a bit on the money line.

Let’s start with a betting system that ahs earned a 70-22-3 ATS record for 76% winning bets over the last five season. The requirements are to bet on double-digit underdogs up to an including 19.5 points that has gone UNDER the total by at least 24 points in their last three games and now facing an opponent that has gone UNDER the total by 44 or mor epoints spanning their last seven games.

Betting on double digit underdogs after game number 15 that are averaging 68 to 75 PPG and now facing an opponent coming off three straight UNDER games and averages at least 78 PPG on the season has earned a 77-38-2 ATS record good for 67% winning bets.

PSU has played their bets games away from Happy Valley and Iowa has played by far their worst at home this season.  The advantage that PSU has against the Iowa defense is that they take great care of the ball, despite ranking 13th nationally in field goal attempt rate, and are extremely good ranking 25th in potential quick points off of steals.

PSU is 15-3-1 ATS coming off a game in which 155 or more points were scored spanning the last three seasons.

No 3 Michigan vs No 4 Ohio State
Value City Arena, Columbus, OH
1:00 ET, February 21, 2021
4% Best Bet on Ohio State +1.5 points

This matchup pits two heavyweights in the Big Ten Conference and the winner of this game is almost guaranteed a No 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Despite being ranked No 3 in the nation, Michigan has been largely inconsistent and have played poorly in road games that they won.

Turnovers will determine the winner of this game and that definitely favors OSU, who rank 11th committing just 10.4 turnovers-per-game on the season. OSU ranks 10th-best posting a 13.3% turnovers-per-play percentage and 15th averaging just 4.8 opponent steals-per-game. Neither team’s defense looks to generate turnovers and instead play fundamentally sound defense. Michigan ranks 338th averaging just 10.8 opponent turnovers-per-game and OSU ranks 328th averaging 10.7 opponent turnovers-per-game.

Free throws will also be an integral part of an OSU win noting they rank 4th making an average of 17.5 free throws-per-game and 22nd in free throw attempts averaging 22.7 per-game. Michigan ranks 172 averaging 13.0 free throws-pergame and a horrid 234th averaging 17 free-throw-attempts-per-game. So, in an even matchup of giants, every possession matters more and the critical scoring opportunity possessions favor OSU.

Illinois vs Minnesota
3:30 ET, February 20, 2021
4% Best Bet UNDER the posted total of 148 points

Betting the UNDER in games after he 15th game of the season and where the road team is a great shooting team making at least 47.4% of their shots and is facing an opponent that is allowing 42 to 45% shooting has earned a crazy 820-600 record for 58% winners over the last 20 seasons.

Minnesota is 8-0 UNDER after the 15th game of the season and facing an elite opponent that is outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points-per-game spanning the last three seasons. They are also 6-0 UNDER following four consecutive games committing 11 or fewer turnovers in games played over the last three seasons.

Pitino is 21-7-1 UNDER as the head coach of Minnesota when facing elite teams that are outscoring their opponents by 12 or more PPG.

Connecticut vs No 10 Villanova

Finneran Pavilion, Villanova, PA

1:00 PM EST, February 20, 2021

4% Best Bet on Villanova -6.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the Villanova team total at 70.5 points. This team total bet is valid up to and including 75-points. 

The line for this game opened with Villanova installed as a 7.5-point favorite and the [public betting community jumped on UCONN forcing the price down to the current -6.5-point level. The betting behavior is a classic example of recency bias based on the last few games played by both teams. The bias certainly does not reflect the true strength of each team and the result is that we get an exceptionally cheap price to bet Villanova. 

In their last game, Villanova lost on the road to then-No 19 Creighton 86-70. Creighton shot an incredible 59.3% from the field and could have made shots with their eyes closed. Villanova struggled shooting just 37.5% and 31.3% from beyond the arc. However, they had just seven turnovers and shot 12-for-13 from the charity stripe for 92.3%. Villanova is 11-2 ATS after a game in which they made 88% or more of their free throws and 32-16-1 ATS after back-to-back games allowing nine or fewer offensive rebounds. 

No 3 Michigan vs Rutgers

Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI

9:00 PM EST, February 18, 2021

4% Best Bet on Rutgers +9 points

Michigan may be the No 3 ranked rteam in the country, but they have been incredibly inconsistent for an elite team. The erractic performances have been masked by outstanding defensive efforts and with that said Rutgers will need to shoot well from the perimeter. Michigan does play aggressively on the defensive end and forces the opponent into a perimeter shot. They rank 325th averaging just 10.8 turnovers-per-game, which will give Rutgers the opportunity to have many open shots.

Rutgers is 9-1 ATS facing solid rebounding teams that are outrebounding their opponents by at least four boards-per-game, and after the 15th game of the season. They are also 21-10 ATS when playing against an opponent that has a strong defense allowing 43% or lower shooting in games played over the last two seasons.

Miami vs Sacramento

10:00 PM EST, February 18, 2021
8-UNIT Best Bet on the Miami Heat

Betting on any team that is on a 3 or more-game ROAD losing streak and playing on back-to-back nights has earned an outstanding 34-9-1 ATS for 79.1% winning bets over the last five seasons. And when the team involved is playing another road game, the record soars to 22-5 ATS for 82% winning bets.

For this research and the predictive analytics, Goran Dragic is listed as out. He has an ankle injurty and very unlikely he will play despite being listed as questionable.

From the predictive applications, we learn that the Heat are an outstanding 14-5 SU and 17-2 ATS in road games installed as a dog, scoring 111 or more points and having the better, more efficient assist-to-turnover ratio in games played over the last three seasons.

No 4 Ohio State vs Penn State
8:00 PM EST, February 18, 2021
University Park, PA

4% Best Bet on Penn State +4.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the momey line.

This is a must-win for Penn State and defeating a highly ranked conference foe would really brighten their resume. They have played the toughest schediule in the nation, but with a win tonight, they have an excellent opportunity to win-out.

PSU has a losing record, but do not let that fool you for one second. They are vastly better than record reflects. PSU is a solid 77=36-1 when facing teams that attempt a minimum of 21 3-point shots in gajes played after the 15th game of the regular season. They are 13-4 ATS when facing outstanding ball-handling teams that average 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game  in games played over the last two seasons.

PSU has shot miserably in their last three games and are likely to exceed their season shooting averages tonight according to my machine learning applications. Note that PSU is a perfect 8-0 ATS in home games when scoring at least 75 points in games played over the last two seasons.

Pittsburgh vs Georgia Tech
4:00 ET, February 14, 2021

4% Best Bet on Pittsburgh + 4.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line. I take 85% of the amount of my 4% Bet and bet the game using the spread. Then the money line is used to be the remaining 20% amount.

Betting on road teams coming off an ATS win, but lost the game and now playing in a matchup of teams sporting win percentages between 50.1 and 60% on the season has earned a highly profitable 36-9-1 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the last five seasons.

G-Tech’s head coach Pastner is a money-burning 7-18-1 ATS when playing their third in a game. 
From the machine learning applications, Pitt is expected to shoot 35% or better from beyond the arc, and/or get a minimum of 40 rebounds, and/or outrebound G-Teach by at least five rebounds. So, any combination of these three parameters has seen Pittsburgh be the winning bet in at least 83% of the games played over the last five seasons.

Nebraska vs Penn State

Bryce-Jordan Center, University Park, PA

3:00 PM EST, February 14, 2021

4% Best Bet on Penn State -11 points

Do not be misled by Penn State’s losing overall and conference record. They have played the toughest strength-of-schedule in the nation and now begin a stretch that could see them win out. If they advanced to the Final-4 of the B-10 Tournament, they could earn a spot in the dance. They have the talent and team chemistry is quite good.

Nebraska has played their worst games on the road this season and ranks 342nd when playing away from Lincoln.  Penn State looks to run and score within ten seconds off of missed shots and rank 31st in this category. Nebraska has been terrible defending an opponent’s fast break off of their missed shots ranking 223rd.

PSU averages 25 3-point shot attempts per game and Nebraska averages 24. Nebraska is 6-22-2 ATS when facing a team averaging 21 or more 3-point shot attempts in games played after the 15th game of the season and spanning the last three seasons. PSU is 70-32 ATS when facing teams, who are averaging at least 21 3-points shot attempts, after the 15th game of the seasons spanning the last ten seasons.

From the machine learning applications, PSU is 14-2 ATS for 88% winning bets when scoring 75 to 81 points and making at least 78% of their free-throw attempts in games played over the last two seasons.

No 3. Michigan vs No 21 Wisconsin

Kohl Center, Madison, WI

1:00 PM EST, February 14, 2021

4% Best Bet on Michigan -1 point.

The money line bet may be a solid alternative to the -1 point, but only if it is priced at -114 or lower. Anything above -115 has minimal value and is too expensive and increases the risk amount too.

I was surprised when this line opened with Wisconsin as a -2-point home favorite, but that lasted about 30 minutes as money did come in on Michigan. A few books have Michigan priced as -1.5 point road favorites and this is the level where the market is balanced.

The reason I was surprised by the opening line is that Michigan ranks 1st in overall positive team momentum while Wisconsin has been inconsistent and ranks 290th in momentum. Wisconsin has played their best and most efficient games at home, so that may be a supportive reason for the opening line. Still, Michigan is the better team right now, but this will be a grinding and defensive-minded game.

The big difference between these two teams is that Michigan has a more efficient offense than Wisconsin. Michigan ranks 6th nationally with a 58.1% 2-point shooting percentage and ranks 5th making 50.9% of all shot attempts. Overall, Michigan ranks 5th with a 57.6% effective FG percentage. By comparison, Wisconsin ranks 155th with a 50.5% effective FG percentage, 235th with a 48.1% 2-point FG percentage, and 196th with an overall 43.2% shooting percentage.

Both defenses are among the best in the nation, but Michigan has a modest edge at this end of the court as well. Michigan is 7-0 ATS facing strong defensive teams allowing 42% or lower opponent shooting in games played this season.

No 7 Ohio State vs Maryland

9:00 PM EST, February 8, 2021

Xfinity Center, College Park, MD

4% Best Bet UNDER the posted total of 139-points. 

Ohio State set a program record of four consecutive road victories against Top-15 teams in their win over Iowa last Thursday. Maryland has been struggling and lost 55-50 at a vastly underrated Penn State team last Friday. The loss to PSU marked season-lows in points scored with 50 and assists with just six.

Maryland has played solid defense and rank 46th in overall defensive efficiency. They will be tested by an OSU offense that ranks 5th nationally in overall offensive efficiency. Both teams play at some of the slowest paced games nationally and in the Big Ten conference this season. OSU ranks 274th averaging 67.8 possessions-per-forty-minutes and Maryland ranks 206th averaging 66.7 possessions-per-forty-minutes. So, there certainly will be no rush after rebounding a missed shot by either team.

Betting UNDER the posted total in games lined between 130 and 139.5 points after one of the teams involved is coming off five consecutive games scoring 65 or fewer points and facing an opponent that scored 40 or more points in the first half of their last two games has earned a 46-16-1 ATS record good for 74% winning bets over the last 20 seasons.

OSU is 9-1 UNDER following a game in which they scored 85 or more points in games played over the last three seasons. 

Oklahoma State vs No 23 Kansas

Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS

9:00 PM EST, February 8, 2021

4% Best Bet on Oklahoma State +4.5-points and sprinkle a bit more using the money line.

Kansas has uncharacteristically struggled against teams with a winning record of 60% and higher sporting a horrible 0-6 ATS record this season. OSU has a major advantage in terms of their positive recent play and the momentum they carry into this game. They have won 3-of-4 and 6-of-8 games and covered the spread at the same clip. In their last game, they shot a terrible 35.3% against then-No 5 Texas and still scored 75 points in their 75-67 win Saturday. They defeated Kansas earlier this year at home 75-70 as a 3.5-point underdog.

OSU has been a far more consistent team ranking 22nd nationally and Kansas’s root problem is consistency in which they rank 322nd. So, OSU is more consistent and is playing some of their best basketball of the season. When I see strong momentum and consistency levels I immediately target that team as a potential betting opportunity.

Kansas has had problems with their bench play and contributions. Their most recent 91-79 loss at West Virginia saw all five starters score in double-digits, but the bench scored just four points. OSU has seven players averaging at least 20 minutes and that depth will serve them well in their attempt to sweep Kansas in the season series. 

Austin Peay at Tennessee-Martinsville

7:00 PM EST, February 8, 2021

4% Best Bet on Tennessee-Martinsville +12.5 points and sprinkle a bit on the money line. 

The machine learning applications predict that this game will be much closer than the 11.5 point betting line indicates. Both of these teams play at the lower-end of the pace-of-play stats with Austin Peay ranking 299th and UT-Martin ranking 285th in possessions-per-forty-minutes. That suggests that Auston Peay will not run away from UT-Martin and the game will remain within single digits. Plus, UT-Martin has played their best games at home this season and this is a huge advantage for them.

Needless to state, UT-Martin shoots horribly poor form the field and rank 351st in overall field goal percentage. However, Austin Peay’s defense can make any struggling offense resemble a Gonzaga unit. Austin Peay ranks 348th in defensive field goal percentage. UT-Martin is capable of shooting better than 45% from the field and if they do just might pull off the big-time upset win. 

Washington vs Oregon

4:00 PM EST, February 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on Washington +13.5 points

Let’s start with a proven betting system that has earned a 47-18-2 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the last twenty seasons. The system requirements are to bet on road dogs with a win percentage of 20% or lower on the season and facing a host that has won 60 to 80% of their games on the season and has gone OVER the total by 30 or more points spanning theie last five games. 

Oregon is a money-burning 5-18-1 ATS in a home game and coming off two comsecutive home losses. Further, Oregon guard Chris Duarte is downgraded to OUT for this game with an ankle injury. 

Bet Washington as a 4% Best Bet.

No 19 Wisconsin vs No 12 Illinois

2:30 PM EST, February 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on Illinois -4.5 points

No 19 Wisconsin vs No 12 Illinois

2:30 PM EST, February 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on Illinois -4.5 points

The Big-Ten Conference is head and should the best conference in the nation and where the road team has an enormous challenge to get a win. Home team dominance has endured in the Big Ten for the past three seasons and it reflects the remarkable depth of the conference that may send nine and possibly ten teams to the Dance.

Wisconsin has been largely inconsistent on the season and has played their worst games on the road. Illinois has been a far more consistent team and has played their best at home this season. Illinois ranks 12th nationally with a 56.6% effective field goal percentage and 9th making 50.1% of all shot attempts. What is remarkable about Illinois is that they do not take many 3-point shots ranking 275th, but rank 130th in made- 3-pointers, and 9th making 39.7% of their 3-point shots.

Head coach Underwood is 28-12-1 ATS facing an excellent ball-handling team averaging 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game.

From the machine learning applications, Illinois is expected to score between 76 and 81 points in this game, and in past games in which they scored within this range has produced an 80-42 ATS result. Wisconsin is 11-28 ATS for 72% winning bets in games in which they allowed 76 to 81 points.